Golden Ocean Group Ltd (GOGL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Golden Ocean Q1 2024 release.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Golden Ocean 2024 年第一季版本。

My name is Lars Christian Svensen, and I'm the CEO of Golden Ocean.

我叫拉爾斯‧克里斯蒂安‧斯文森 (Lars Christian Svensen)，是金海公司的執行長。

Today, our CFO, Peder Simonsen, and I will guide you through our Q1 numbers, forward outlook, and activities within the Golden Ocean Group.

今天，我和我們的財務長 Peder Simonsen 將向您介紹我們第一季的數據、前瞻性展望以及金洋集團內部的活動。

Here are the highlights for the first quarter of 2024.

以下是 2024 年第一季的亮點。

Our adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2024 ended up at $114.3 million compared to $123.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.143 億美元，而 2023 年第四季為 1.232 億美元。

We delivered a net income of $65.4 million and earnings per share of $0.33 compared to a net income of $57.5 million and earnings per share of $0.29 for the fourth quarter of 2023.

我們的淨利潤為 6,540 萬美元，每股收益為 0.33 美元，而 2023 年第四季的淨利潤為 5,750 萬美元，每股收益為 0.29 美元。

Our TCE rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels were about $27,200 per day and about $15,000 per day, respectively, in conclusion, a combined fleet-wide net TCE of about $22,600 per day for the quarter.

我們的好望角型和巴拿馬型船舶的 TCE 費率分別約為每天 27,200 美元和每天約 15,000 美元，總而言之，本季度整個船隊的淨 TCE 約為每天 22,600 美元。

For Q2, we have secured a net TCE of $27,200 per day for 75% of the Capesize days and about $14,500 per day for 82% of the Panamax days.

第二季度，我們確保 75% 的海岬型船天數的淨 TCE 為每天 27,200 美元，82% 的巴拿馬型船天數的淨 TCE 約為每天 14,500 美元。

For Q3, we locked in a net TCE of $25,200 per day for 24% of the Capesize days, and about $20,500 per day for 41% of the Panamax days.

對於第三季度，我們將 24% 的海岬型船天數鎖定為每天 25,200 美元的淨 TCE，將 41% 的巴拿馬型船天數鎖定為每天約 20,500 美元。

With a strong result in Q1 where we were able to capitalize on our commercial strategy in full, we are pleased to prepare a dividend of $0.30 per share for this first quarter of 2024.

憑藉第一季的強勁業績，我們能夠充分利用我們的商業策略，我們很高興為 2024 年第一季準備每股 0.30 美元的股息。

Peder will now guide you through our numbers in detail.

佩德現在將詳細指導您了解我們的數據。

Over to you Peder.

交給你了，佩德。

Thank you, Lars Christian.

謝謝你，拉爾斯克里斯蒂安。

If you move to slide 5 and look at our P&L for the quarter, we achieved strong commercial performance in an unusually healthy freight market for the season.

如果您轉到投影片 5 並查看我們本季的損益表，您會發現我們在本季異常健康的貨運市場中取得了強勁的商業業績。

Our Capes came in at the $27,200, and the Panamaxes achieved $15,000 in TCE rates for the quarter which resulted in a total fleet-wide TCE rate of $22,600, up from $22,000 in Q4 2023.

我們的好望角型船的價格為 27,200 美元，巴拿馬型船本季的 TCE 費率為 15,000 美元，這使得整個船隊的總 TCE 費率達到 22,600 美元，高於 2023 年第四季的 22,000 美元。

We drydocked two ships in Q1 which is the same as in Q4, contributing to approximately 97 days offhire versus 109 days offhire in Q4.

我們在第一季將兩艘船進乾船塢，與第四季相同，導致停租約 97 天，而第四季為 109 天。

We have three ships scheduled for drydock in Q2 2024, of which two vessels have been completed as of this report.

我們有三艘船計劃於 2024 年第二季進塢，截至本報告，其中兩艘船已完工。

This resulted in net revenues of $196.7 and changed quarter on quarter as stronger TCE performance was offset by fewer vessel days.

這導致淨收入為 196.7 美元，並且環比變化，因為 TCE 業績的強勁被船舶天數的減少所抵消。

Looking at our OpEx, we achieved total operating expenses of $62.6 million versus $63.4 million in Q4.

從我們的營運支出來看，我們的總營運支出為 6,260 萬美元，而第四季為 6,340 萬美元。

Running expenses were largely unchanged quarter on quarter, and OpEx reclassified from charter hire was $2.4 million, $0.7 million lower than in Q4.

營運費用較上季基本上沒有變化，從包機租金重新分類的營運支出為 240 萬美元，比第四季減少了 70 萬美元。

OpEx ex-drydock was $6,700 per ship per day, which is unchanged from Q4.

幹船塢前營運支出為每艘船每天 6,700 美元，與第四季持平。

Looking at our general and administrative expenses, we ended up at $7.4 million, which is up from $4.9 million in Q4.

看看我們的一般和管理費用，我們最終達到 740 萬美元，高於第四季的 490 萬美元。

The increase mainly relates to nonrecurring personnel expenses.

增加主要與非經常性人員費用有關。

Our daily G&A came in at $819 per ship per day net-of-cost recharge to affiliated companies, and $524 per day when adjusted for nonrecurring expenses in line with the last quarter.

我們的日常管理費用為每艘船每天 819 美元（扣除向附屬公司充值的成本後），根據上季度的非經常性費用調整後每天 524 美元。

Our charter hire expense came in at $7.3 million, which was slightly up from Q4, with fewer vessel days in our trading portfolio, was offset by profit split payments to our leading counterpart SSL Corp. Our net financial expenses were $27.2 million versus $27.3 million in Q4.

我們的包機租金費用為730 萬美元，略高於第四季度，因為我們的交易組合中的船舶天數較少，但被支付給我們領先的同業SSL Corp 的利潤分割付款所抵消。費用為2,720 萬美元，去年同期為2,730 萬美元。

On our derivatives and other financial income, we recorded a gain of $7.3 million, which compares to a loss of $5.8 million in Q4.

在我們的衍生性商品和其他財務收入方面，我們錄得 730 萬美元的收益，而第四季則虧損 580 萬美元。

On derivatives, we recorded a gain of $12 million versus a loss of $8.2 million, which is the result of interest rate swaps gains of $9.6 million, which again includes $4.1 million in real-life cash gains, and gains on FFA and bunker derivatives of $2.5 million.

在衍生性商品方面，我們錄得1,200 萬美元的收益，而虧損820 萬美元，這是利率掉期收益960 萬美元的結果，其中又包括410 萬美元的現實現金收益，以及FFA 和燃油衍生品的收益250萬美元。

For results from investments in associates, we recorded a loss of $4.6 million compared to a $2.7 million gain in Q4.

對於聯營公司投資的結果，我們錄得 460 萬美元的虧損，而第四季為 270 萬美元的收益。

This relates to our investment in Swiss Marine, TFG, and UFC.

這與我們對 Swiss Marine、TFG 和 UFC 的投資有關。

In sum, we recorded a net profit of $65.4 million, $0.33 per share, and an adjusted net profit of $58.4 million or $0.29 per share, and a dividend of $0.30 to clear for the quarter.

總而言之，我們的淨利潤為 6,540 萬美元，每股 0.33 美元，調整後淨利為 5,840 萬美元，即每股 0.29 美元，本季股息為 0.30 美元。

Moving to slide 6 on our cash flow, we recorded cash flow from operations of $115.8 million, which include $0.6 million in dividends received from associate companies.

轉到現金流量的幻燈片 6，我們記錄了營運現金流量為 1.158 億美元，其中包括從聯營公司收到的 60 萬美元股息。

Cash flow used in investments totaled $12.2 million, which mainly relates to $15.7 million relating to the sale of one Panamax vessel, which was offset by $27 million in installments and costs relating to our Kamsarmax new buildings.

投資所用現金流量總計 1,220 萬美元，主要涉及與一艘巴拿馬型船舶銷售相關的 1,570 萬美元，並被與卡姆薩爾型新船相關的 2,700 萬美元分期付款和成本所抵消。

Cash flow used in financings were $74.9 million.

用於融資的現金流量為 7,490 萬美元。

This mainly comprised of $35.4 million in scheduled debts and lease repayments, including prepayments relating to the sale of one Panamax vessel, $73.7 million in net proceeds from refinancings announced in the previous quarter, and $50 million in repayment under the revolving credit facilities.

這主要包括3,540 萬美元的計畫債務和租賃償還，包括與出售一艘巴拿馬型船舶相關的預付款、上一季宣布的再融資淨收益7,370 萬美元，以及循環信貸安排下的5,000 萬美元還款。

Lastly, we had a dividend payment of $59.9 million relating to the Q4 results during Q1.

最後，我們在第一季支付了與第四季業績相關的 5,990 萬美元股息。

A total net increasing cash of $28.8 million.

淨增加現金總額為 2880 萬美元。

Moving to slide 7, our balance sheet, we recorded cash and cash equivalents of $147.4 million, which includes $2.7 million in restricted cash.

轉到投影片 7，我們的資產負債表，我們記錄的現金和現金等價物為 1.474 億美元，其中包括 270 萬美元的限制性現金。

In addition, we have $125 million in undrawn available credit lines at quarter end.

此外，截至季末，我們還有 1.25 億美元的未提取可用信貸額度。

Theft and finance lease liabilities totaled $1.5 billion end of Q1, down by approximately $11 million quarter on quarter.

第一季末竊盜和融資租賃負債總額為 15 億美元，季減約 1,100 萬美元。

Average fleet-wide loan to value under the company's debts facilities per quarter end was 38.3%.

每季末公司債務融資下的平均整個船隊貸款價值為 38.3%。

And book equity of $1.9 billion led to a ratio of equity to total assets of approximately 55%.

帳面權益為 19 億美元，權益與總資產的比率約為 55%。

With that, I give the word back to Lars Christian.

說完，我把話轉告拉爾斯·克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Peder.

謝謝你，佩德。

We will then continue with the market outlook, first up, illustrating the Golden Ocean fleet composition.

然後我們將繼續展望市場前景，首先說明金洋船隊的組成。

The solid financial platform Peder just described gives Golden Ocean the ability to tilt the fleet in the spot market when we see a trend we believe in like we have done in Q1.

Peder 剛剛描述的可靠的金融平台使 Golden Ocean 有能力在我們看到我們相信的趨勢時在現貨市場上傾斜船隊，就像我們在第一季所做的那樣。

Large volatility and equally great monetary upsides still lies into larger segments especially in the Capesize space.

更大的細分市場仍然存在著較大的波動性和同樣巨大的貨幣上漲空間，尤其是海岬型船舶領域。

As the graph illustrates, we're still the only company compared to our peers with meaningful market caps that are significant Capesize exposure.

如圖所示，與同行相比，我們仍然是唯一一家擁有有意義的市值（即大量海岬型船敞口）的公司。

With our dual listing in New York and Oslo and a market cap around $3 billion, we offer large liquidity and exposure to what we believe will be the most favorable dry bulk segments in the years to come, Panamax and Capesizes.

我們在紐約和奧斯陸雙重上市，市值約為 30 億美元，因此我們可以提供大量流動性，並投資於我們認為未來幾年最有利的干散貨領域：巴拿馬型船和海岬型船。

The global Capesize trade continued its positive trajectory with almost 4% increase in Q1 but more interestingly, the trade flows from the Atlantic to the Pacific were up 13% year on year, a massive ton-mile absorber.

全球海岬型船貿易持續保持積極的軌跡，第一季成長近 4%，但更有趣的是，從大西洋到太平洋的貿易流量年增 13%，噸海裡吸收量龐大。

This was mostly driven by a dry Brazil, where we saw an iron ore increase of 15% year on year, Colombian coal exports where we noticed a staggering 52% increase year on year, and a bauxite trade from West Africa, which reached record-high export volumes and close to 10% increase year on year.

這主要是由乾燥的巴西推動的，我們看到鐵礦石同比增長了 15％，哥倫比亞煤炭出口同比增長了 52％，以及來自西非的鋁土礦貿易，達到了創紀錄的水平 -出口量高，年成長接近10%。

China and India received most of the volumes with an import increase of 8% and 12% year-on-year growth for the first quarter of 2024.

中國和印度接收了大部分數量，2024年第一季進口量年增8%，年增12%。

In addition to the mentioned high seaborne trade volumes, vessel transits through Suez are down 43% in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023.

除了上述的高海運貿易量外，2024 年第一季通過蘇伊士運河的船舶運輸量比 2023 年第一季下降了 43%。

The dry Panama Canal produced even fewer transits with a 73% reduction over the same-time period.

乾涸的巴拿馬運河的運輸量甚至更少，同期減少了 73%。

As we look further into the iron ore, we note that China increased the iron ore imports with 5% year on year in the first quarter.

當我們進一步觀察鐵礦石時，我們注意到中國第一季鐵礦石進口量比去年同期增加了5%。

More interestingly, the country has increased its import from the Atlantic by over 30%, which has mostly handled on Capsize vessels and act as a solid ton-mile contributor as mentioned previously in the presentation.

更有趣的是，該國從大西洋的進口量增加了 30% 以上，其中大部分是在好望角型船舶上處理的，並且如前面介紹中提到的那樣，成為可靠的噸英里貢獻者。

In 2025, we can also expect to see Simandou iron ore mining Guinea to start shipping the first of its forecasted 60 million tons export capacity which will further strengthen the ton-mile scenario, which we believe will continue to boost the Capsize sector.

到2025 年，我們也預計幾內亞西芒杜鐵礦石開採公司將開始運輸其預計6,000 萬噸出口能力中的第一批，這將進一步加強噸英里情景，我們相信這將繼續推動海岬型船產業的發展。

I would like to draw your attention to steel production.

我想提請您注意鋼鐵生產。

The Chinese steel production inventory has remained flat compared to Q1 2023.

與 2023 年第一季相比，中國鋼鐵產量庫存保持持平。

Albeit the steel consumption related to the property sector is down, China has had a solid increase in consumption related to infrastructure plus 4%, the auto industry plus 6%, and the energy sector has seen a 7% increase so far in 2024.

儘管與房地產產業相關的鋼鐵消費量下降，但2024年迄今，中國與基礎設施產業相關的消費量已穩定成長4%，汽車產業成長6%，能源產業成長7%。

The steel exports from the contract are continuing at a high pace with a 30% increase year on year.

合約鋼材出口持續維持高速成長，較去年同期成長30%。

Shaking off the inflation ghost, the rest of the world has increased their steel production by about 6%, and is forecasted to increase at the same pace throughout the year and in 2025.

擺脫通膨陰影後，世界其他地區的鋼鐵產量增加了約 6%，預計全年和 2025 年將以相同的速度成長。

In the previous quarter, we emphasized the Capesize sector as the most attractive place to be in the dry space.

在上一季度，我們強調好望角型船舶領域是乾燥地區最具吸引力的領域。

Based on the last quarter we're even more convinced about this thesis.

基於上個季度的數據，我們更加相信這個論點。

The order book remains at a 30-year low for the Capesizes and to put it in perspective, the additional volumes from the new Simandou Mine in Guinea, when fully operational, will be able to absorb the 6% Capesize order book on a standalone basis. 30% of the Capesize fleet will hit 20 years of age in 2030 and will either have to be modified to handle the environmental regulations or look towards the scrap yards as we enter a new decade.

海岬型船的訂單量仍處於 30 年來的最低水平，從長遠來看，幾內亞新西芒杜礦全面運作後的額外產量將能夠單獨吸收海岬型船訂單量的 6% 。到 2030 年，30% 的海岬型船隊將達到 20 年船齡，在進入新的十年時，必須進行改造以適應環境法規，要么轉向廢品場。

I would like to remind you that the Golden Ocean fleets has a current average age just north of seven years.

我想提醒您，金洋艦隊目前的平均船齡只有七年左右。

As the last comment to this slide, the congestion continues to be low and the downslide has already been priced in into the Capesize segment.

正如對這次下滑的最後評論，擁堵程度仍然較低，而且海岬型船市場的下滑已經反映在價格中。

We round off this presentation as we normally do, illustrating the Golden Ocean cash flow potential.

我們像往常一樣結束本次演示，說明金海現金流潛力。

The market outlook is positive, and our fleet composition is well situated to reap the rewards of what we believe will be a solid year for large size dry bulk.

市場前景樂觀，我們的船隊結構處於有利位置，可以在我們相信大型乾散貨將迎來堅實的一年中獲得回報。

We're excited to create further value for our shareholders and to reach new milestones when it comes to yield and fleet optimization as we continue to navigate 2024.

我們很高興能夠為股東創造更多價值，並在我們繼續邁向 2024 年的過程中，在產量和機隊優化方面達到新的里程碑。

I would now pass the word back to the operator and welcome any questions.

我現在將把話傳回接線員並歡迎任何問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Sherif Elmaghrabi, BTIG.

（操作員指令）Sherif Elmaghrabi，BTIG。

So first, on the recent flooding in Brazil, is the impact on grain exports there being felt by Panamaxes at all or is it isolated to smaller vessel classes?

那麼首先，關於巴西最近發生的洪水，巴拿馬型船是否完全感受到了對糧食出口的影響，還是只影響到較小的船舶類別？

For now, we don't see the massive impact on the Panamaxes on this incident, so it's pretty much business as usual for what we can observe so far.

目前，我們還沒有看到這次事件對巴拿馬型船造成的巨大影響，因此就我們目前觀察到的情況來看，一切照常進行。

Okay, and then any thoughts on chartering in more tonnage to flex the size of the fleet given current spot market strength ahead of the seasonally stronger part of the year?

好的，那麼鑑於當前現貨市場在今年季節性強勁的時期之前的強勁勢頭，您對租用更多噸位以擴大船隊規模有什麼想法嗎？

For example, SSL has the handful of smaller bulkers, I believe, that are trading spot?

例如，SSL 有幾艘較小的散裝貨船，我相信，它們是現貨交易？

Yeah, we always look to optimize the fleet, and sometimes we take time charters in as well to see the need.

是的，我們總是尋求優化機隊，有時我們也會考慮定期租船來看看是否有需要。

We like to, first of all, see a trend first before we time charter in, but if we do, it's definitely going to be in the Capesize and the Panamax space, where we believe the strength will lie in the second half of the year.

首先，我們希望在租船之前先看到趨勢，但如果我們這樣做，那肯定會出現在海岬型船和巴拿馬型船領域，我們相信下半年會出現強勁勢頭。

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑弗里斯。

Just had a couple of questions for you just on the broader market, and you provided some good insight and detail in the last part of your presentation.

剛剛有幾個關於更廣泛市場的問題要問您，您在演講的最後部分提供了一些很好的見解和細節。

I just wanted to ask from big picture perspective, what do you think is driving the market right now?

我只是想從大局的角度問一下，您認為現在推動市場的因素是什麼？

We've seen figures for the Chinese steel production coming off recently, and yet despite that, the Cape market has been very strong and resilient.

我們最近看到中國鋼鐵產量的數據不斷下降，但儘管如此，開普敦市場仍然非常強勁且富有彈性。

What would you say -- if you could identify maybe one driving force of the market, is that something that you can identify or give any perspective on?

如果您能辨識出市場的一種驅動力，您會怎麼說？

Yeah, nice to speak to you again, Omar.

是的，很高興再次與你交談，奧馬爾。

I think there's two things that we're not going to be able to avoid in this market, and that is the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.

我認為在這個市場上有兩件事我們無法避免，那就是巴拿馬運河和蘇伊士運河。

In addition to that, we have a lot of coal from Colombia moving, the bauxite and iron ore has been flowing very strong.

除此之外，我們還有很多來自哥倫比亞的煤炭正在運輸，鋁土礦和鐵礦石的流動也非常強勁。

And it's very ton-mile intensive.

而且噸英里密集度很高。

The only way to find these ships are going to be via the Cape of Good Hope.

找到這些船隻的唯一方法是通過好望角。

It is not possible to get them through any canals anymore.

不可能再讓它們通過任何運河了。

So we see appetite especially on the coal side.

因此，我們看到了尤其是煤炭方面的需求。

India is being a strong importer still.

印度仍然是一個強大的進口國。

And the Chinese are preferring, as far as we can observe this year, to import their volumes from Brazil instead of Australia.

根據我們今年觀察到的情況，中國人更願意從巴西而不是澳洲進口。

So there has been a good steady flow, and it takes me a little bit back to last year, where we saw the headlines on [Micronesia] from China, and the property sector, etc. But we see record volumes being shipped every week, and that still continues.

因此，流量穩定良好，這讓我想起了去年，當時我們看到了來自中國的[密克羅尼西亞]以及房地產行業等的頭條新聞。情況仍在繼續。

Okay, yeah, that's interesting.

好吧，是的，這很有趣。

And you mentioned also, I guess, the Chinese steel exports being up 30% year over year in the first quarter, and I think last year they're up tremendously as well.

我猜你也提到，第一季中國鋼鐵出口量年增了30%，我認為去年的成長幅度也很大。

Is there -- do you think there's a story that could develop for Chinese steel exports, and assuming that those remain strong and terrorists don't eat into it, is that something that could become a bullish thesis for dry bulk as well, and if it were to be what segment do you think would be best positioned?

您是否認為中國鋼鐵出口可能會發展，並假設這些出口仍然強勁並且恐怖分子不會蠶食它，這也可能成為乾散貨的看漲論點，如果您認為哪個細分市場定位最好？

Yeah, no, it seems the steel obviously exports from China has been solid in over a good period of time.

是的，不，中國的鋼鐵出口似乎在很長一段時間內一直保持穩定。

And most of it has been lifted on the smaller sizes, Supramaxes and Handysizes and that hasn't really been enough to kick that market off properly.

其中大部分是在較小尺寸的超靈便型船舶和靈便型船舶上提升的，但這還不足以真正啟動該市場。

But if there's more steel trends coming out of China, we might see more back coal cargoes on the Panamaxes as well, which can be interesting for the steel business.

但如果中國出現更多鋼鐵趨勢，我們可能會看到巴拿馬型船運回更多煤炭貨物，這對鋼鐵業來說可能很有趣。

Yeah, okay.

好的。

And maybe just one final one for me, and as you mentioned you positioned nicely with the focus on the Capes and you have the Panamaxes, but generally you're very top-heavy in position to take advantage of this tight market for the larger vessel.

也許對我來說只是最後一艘，正如您所提到的，您的定位很好，重點關注好望角，而且您擁有巴拿馬型船，但一般來說，您非常頭重腳輕，能夠利用大型船舶的緊張市場。

On your slide 13, you discussed an order book where Capes continue to be, even though it's the one market that is shining for the past six to nine months, it has the lowest order book percentage.

在幻燈片 13 中，您討論了 Capes 繼續保持的訂單簿，儘管它是過去六到九個月表現出色的市場，但它的訂單簿百分比最低。

Given that, how are you thinking about new buildings from here?

有鑑於此，您對這裡的新建築有何看法？

I know Sherif was just asking about chartering and ships to flex the fleet.

我知道謝里夫只是詢問有關租船和船隻的問題，以調整艦隊。

How about in general, just in terms of adding new capacity, do you feel the need or is there an opportunity you think to go into the new building market and take advantage of the low side?

總的來說，就增加新產能而言，您是否覺得有必要或認為有機會進入新建築市場並利用低端優勢？

Over the last three years, Omar, we've been quite active on acquiring tonnage to be ready for this cycle on the tightness that we see now.

奧馬爾，在過去的三年裡，我們一直非常積極地獲取噸位，為我們現在看到的緊張週期做好準備。

The last done on the New Castlemax was $73 million, and we bought six of those sisters for $50 million a pop last year.

New Castlemax 的最後售價為 7300 萬美元，去年我們以每艘 5000 萬美元的價格購買了其中的六艘。

So for us, we don't have to do anything at the moment.

所以對我們來說，目前不需要做任何事。

We're quite happy with the position that we have, but we will obviously always look for accretive deals to the fleet, and we have the balance sheet to make those as well.

我們對我們所擁有的地位非常滿意，但顯然我們總是會為機隊尋找增值交易，而且我們也有資產負債表來實現這些交易。

Yeah, that makes sense.

是的，這是有道理的。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

That's it for me.

對我來說就是這樣。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Omar.

謝謝，奧馬爾。