Golden Ocean Group Ltd (GOGL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2023 Golden Ocean Group Limited earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到第四季2023年Golden Oceal Group Limited收入電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Lars Christian Svensen, CEO. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給您今天的第一位發言人，執行長拉爾斯·克里斯蒂安·斯文森（Lars Christian Svensen）。請繼續。

Good day, and welcome to the Golden Ocean Q4 2023 release. My name is Lars Christian Svenson, and I'm the CEO of Golden Ocean. Today, our CFO, Peder Simonsen, and I will guide you through our Q4 numbers, recent activities, and our forward outlook.

美好的一天，歡迎來到Golden Ocean Q4 2023版本。我叫拉爾斯·克里斯蒂安·斯文森（Lars Christian Svenson），我是金洋的執行長。今天，我們的財務官，Peder Simonsen和我將指導您完成我們的第四季度數字，最近的活動以及我們的前瞻性前景。

Here are the highlights for the fourth quarter of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter ended up at $123.2 million compared to $78.9 million in the third quarter. We delivered an adjusted net income of $64.6 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.32, compared with an adjusted net income of $22 million and earnings per share of $0.11 for the third quarter.

以下是2023年第四季的亮點。我們的第四季調整後的EBITDA的結局為1.232億美元，而第三季為7890萬美元。我們的調整後淨收入為6,460萬美元，調整後的每股盈餘為0.32美元，而調整後的淨收入為2,200萬美元，第三季的每股盈餘為0.11美元。

Our TCE rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels were $25,176 per day and $16,738 per day, respectively. That took us to combined fleet-wide net TCE of about $22,000 per day. For Q1, we have secured a net TCE or $25,000 per day for 74% of the Capesize days and $15,400 per day for the 84% of the Panamax days. For Q2, we have a net TCE or $25,000 per day for 25% of the Capesize base and $14,200 per day for 19% of the Panamax days.

我們的Capesize和Panamax船隻的TCE率分別為每天25,176美元和每天16,738美元。這使我們將範圍範圍的淨淨稅收合併為每天約22,000美元。對於第1季度，我們已經獲得了淨TCE或每天25,000美元的覆蓋天數，而Panamax天的84％的售價為每天15,400美元。對於第二季度，我們有25％的CapeSize Base的淨TCE或每天25,000美元，而Panamax天的19％為每天14,200美元。

During the quarter, we have agreed to sell one Panamax for a net consideration of $15.8 million and received financial commitments for an aggregate amount of $625 million at highly attractive terms. We continue to prioritize dividends, and we're pleased to declare a dividend of $0.30 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023.

在本季度，我們已同意出售一份Panamax，以1580萬美元的淨考慮，並以高度有吸引力的條件收到了6.25億美元的財務承諾。我們繼續優先考慮股息，我們很高興宣布2023年第四季的每股0.30美元的股息。

I will now pass the word over to Peder.

現在，我將把這個詞傳遞給Peder。

Thank you, Lars Christian. If you move to our profit and loss on slide 5, we recorded a fleet-wide TCE rate of $22,000 in Q4, up from $17,000 in Q3. Our full-year fleet-wide TCE rate for 2023 ended at $17,900. We had two ships drydocked in Q4, the same as Q3, contributing to about 109 days off hire in Q4 versus 115 days in Q3.

謝謝你，拉爾斯克里斯蒂安。如果您在幻燈片5上獲得了我們的損益，我們將在第四季度的範圍內錄製了22,000美元的艦隊TCE利率，高於第三季的17,000美元。我們2023年的全年車隊全年TCE率的結局為17,900美元。我們在第四季有兩艘船，與第三季相同，在第四季租賃約109天，而第三季為115天。

We have two ships scheduled for drydock in Q1 this year, of which one vessel has completed drydock as of today. This resulted in net revenues of $196.7 million compared to $156.6 million in Q3. Our operating expenses came in at $63.4 million versus $64.5 million in the previous quarter. The running expenses were largely unchanged quarter by quarter, while the OpEx reclassified from charter hire was $3 million this quarter, $1.9 million lower than on Q3.

今年，我們有兩艘船安排在第一季的Drydock，截至目前，一艘船已經完成了乾船塢。這導致淨收入為1.67億美元，而第三季為1.566億美元。我們的營運費用為6,340萬美元，上一季為6,450萬美元。到季度的運行費用基本上是沒有變化的，而從Charter Hire重新分類的OPEX本季為300萬美元，比第三季低190萬美元。

Our general and administrative expenses came in at $4.9 million, up from $4.4 million in Q3. This translates into daily G&A of $528 per day net of cost recharged to affiliated companies, up from $468 per day in Q3.

我們的一般和行政費用為490萬美元，高於第三季的440萬美元。這將轉化為每天528美元的G＆A，每天為附屬公司充電的成本淨額，高達第三季的每天468美元。

Our charter hire expense came in at $6.9 million, down from $8.3 million in Q3 as a result of fewer vessel days in our trading portfolio. Our net financial expenses came in at $27.4 million, down from $28.1 million in Q3, a change mainly due to lower average debt and higher return on short-term deposits.

我們的租賃租賃費用的收入為690萬美元，低於第三季的830萬美元，這是由於我們的貿易投資組合中的船隻較少。我們的淨金融費用為2,740萬美元，低於第三季的2,810萬美元，這項變動主要是由於平均債務較低和短期存款回報率較高。

On derivatives and other financial income, we recorded a loss of $5.8 million compared to a gain of $11.9 million in Q3. The biggest contributor to this is a $9.5 million loss on interest rate swaps, which is a combined result of $13.6 million mark-to-market unrealized loss offset by a $4.1 million realized cash gain under our interest rate swap portfolio.

關於衍生性商品和其他財務收入，我們的虧損為580萬美元，而第三季的收益為1,190萬美元。對此的最大貢獻者是利率掉期的950萬美元虧損，這是在我們的利率掉期投資組合中獲得410萬美元實現的現金收益的1360萬美元商標到市場未實現的損失。

Results from investments in associates, we recorded a gain of $2.7 million compared to a $300,000 loss in Q3. This relates to our investments in SwissMarine, TFG, and UFC. Our net profit of $57.5 million or $0.29 per share and an adjusted net profit of $64.6 million and $0.32 per share was recorded in Q4. For full-year 2023, net profit came in at $112.2 million and adjusted net profit of $117.4 million. And as Lars Christian mentioned, we announced a dividend of $0.30 per share for Q4.

來自Associates的投資的結果，我們的收益為270萬美元，而第三季的虧損為30萬美元。這涉及我們在瑞斯馬林，TFG和UFC上的投資。我們的淨利潤為5750萬美元或每股0.29美元，調整後的淨利潤為6460萬美元，每股0.32美元記錄在第四季度。 2023年全年，淨利為1.122億美元，調整後的淨利為1.174億美元。正如拉爾斯·克里斯蒂安（Lars Christian）所提到的那樣，我們宣布了第四季度每股0.30美元的股息。

Moving to slide 6, we had cash flow from operation coming in at $96.9 million, which includes $1.7 million in dividends received from associated companies. On cash flow provided by investments of $14.7 million, we recorded $21.2 million relating to the sale of one Supramax vessel, which was offset by $6.1 million in installments and costs relating to our Kamsarmax newbuildings.

轉到Slide 6，我們的現金流量為9690萬美元，其中包括170萬美元從關聯公司獲得的股息。關於1,470萬美元的投資提供的現金流，我們記錄了與出售一艘超級船隻有關的2120萬美元，該船隻被610萬美元的分期付款和與我們的Kamsarmax Newbuildings有關的成本所抵消。

On cash flow used in financing, we recorded $92.7 million, which comprised of a $14 million prepayment of finance lease relating to the sale of a Supramax vessel, $33.7 million in scheduled debt and lease repayments, $25 million in repayments under the revolving credit facilities, and a dividend payment of $20 million relating to our Q3 results. Our total net increase in cash was $18.9 million.

在融資中使用的現金流量，我們記錄了9270萬美元，其中包括與出售超級船隻的1400萬美元預付款租賃，預定債務和租賃還款的3,370萬美元，在循環信貸額度下的2500萬美元的款項，2500萬美元以及與我們的第三季結果有關的2000萬美元股息付款。我們的現金總額增加為1,890萬美元。

Moving to slide 7, we recorded cash and cash equivalents by quarter-end of $118.6 million, which includes the $2.2 million restricted cash holdings. In addition, we had $75 million in undrawn available credit facilities at quarter end.

轉到Slide 7，我們以1.186億美元的價格記錄了現金和現金當量，其中包括220萬美元的限制現金持股。此外，我們在四分之一結束時擁有7500萬美元的未納入信貸額度。

Debt and finance lease liabilities totaled $1.5 billion end quarter, down by approximately $70 million quarter on quarter. The average fleet-wide loan to value under our company's debt facilities was 43.8% by year end. And with a book equity of $1.9 billion, we recorded the ratio of equity to total assets of approximately 55%.

債務和金融租賃負債總額為15億美元，季度下降了約7,000萬美元。到年底，在我們公司的債務設施下，平均範圍的貸款為43.8％。並以19億美元的帳面資產，我們記錄了股權與總資產的比率約為55％。

Looking at the newly established financings on the next slide, we have established an aggregate of $625 million in new financing, which comprises of lease financing, bank financing in the European market, and a bank financing in a broader Asian banking group.

從下一張投影片來看新建立的融資，我們建立了6.25億美元的新融資，其中包括租賃融資，歐洲市場的銀行融資以及在一個更廣泛的亞洲銀行集團中的銀行融資。

The latter facility is subject to customary documentation and closing procedures. The financing has a weighted average tenor of 5.7 years and a weighted margin of 172 basis points, which evidences Golden Ocean's strong position in the global financing markets, including now a broad exposure to Asian debt capital.

後一種設施受習慣文件和關閉程序的約束。融資的加權平均男高音為5。7年，加權利潤率為172個基點，證明了金洋在全球融資市場中的強大地位，包括現在對亞洲債務資本的廣泛敞口。

And with that, I give the word back to Lars Christian.

這樣，我將這個詞還給拉爾斯·克里斯蒂安（Lars Christian）。

Thank you, Peder. Let's have a look at the current Golden Ocean exposure. Golden Ocean continues to focus on the largest segments, Capesize and Panamax. As you can see from the left graph compared to our peers with meaningful market caps, we are the largest play Capesize option with 64% of our fleet exposed to this market. Over the last years, we have actively tuned the fleet to where we are today.

謝謝你，佩德。讓我們看看目前的金海洋曝光。金海洋繼續專注於最大的細分市場，披風和帕納馬克斯。從左圖中您可以看到，與我們的同行具有有意義的市值相比，我們是最大的遊戲斗篷選項，有64％的車隊暴露在這個市場上。在過去的幾年中，我們積極地將機隊調到了今天的位置。

This is to be able to capture the spikes in the Capesize sector as described in the right graph. Where you can see over time holds the highest income potential compared to the smaller sizes.

這是為了能夠捕捉海岬型船隻產業的峰值，如右圖所示。隨著時間的推移，您可以看到，與較小的尺寸相比，其中的收入潛力最高。

With our company being dual listed in New York and Oslo and a market cap of around $2.4 billion, we offer large liquidity and exposure to the most favorable drybulk segment, which we will substantiate further in this presentation.

由於我們的公司在紐約和奧斯陸列出了雙重列出，而且市值約為24億美元，我們提供了大量的流動性和對最有利的Drybulbulk細分市場的敞口，我們將在本演講中進一步證實。

The Capesize market rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023 and a strong push has continued into the traditionally slow Q1. So far, however, 2024 has been anything but slow. Colombia, Brazil, West Africa, and Indonesia have increased year-to-year exports in drastic numbers, and the limited activity through the Suez Canal has created even longer hauls, which have an instant impact on the Capesize tonne-mile scenario in addition to the added market volumes.

在2023年第四季度，CapeSize Market反彈，並且在傳統上慢慢進行了強勁的推動力。然而，到目前為止，2024年的一切都很慢。哥倫比亞，巴西，西非和印尼的年度出口數量急劇增加，蘇伊士運河的活動有限，甚至造成了更長的行動，這對Capesize the Capesize the Capesize the the the Capesize the tonne-mile convenario也有所影響。增加的市場量。

The Panamax market has benefited well from the tonne-mile agri bulk trade, which is up 5.5% year on year, much thanks to the strong soya bean season from the East Coast of South America. Also, as an often-used metric to identify appetite for iron ore, we're still watching an iron ore price at around $125 per tonne.

Panamax市場從噸英里的農業散裝貿易中受益匪淺，該商品同比增長了5.5％，這要歸功於南美東海岸的強大大豆季節。另外，作為一個經常使用的指標來識別對鐵礦石的需求，我們仍在觀看每噸125美元左右的鐵礦石價格。

On the subject of iron ore, the move to the iron ore and bauxite exports. The bauxite exports from Guinea reached $125 million in 2023, totaling 12.5% of all Capesize tonne miles. Since 2019, this was an increase of almost 6%. It has become a new structural trade in the Capesize segment with high transparency given [China's] on the receiving end of about 85% of the total volumes.

關於鐵礦石的主題，轉移到鐵礦石和鋁土礦出口。幾內亞的鋁土礦出口在2023年達到了1.25億美元，總計佔所有Capesize Tonne英里的12.5％。自2019年以來，這增加了幾乎6％。鑑於[中國]的總量約為總量的85％，它已成為CapeSize細分市場的新結構性貿易，其透明度很高。

If I can draw your attention to the left graph, you can see the trade is also inversely seasonal. The bulk side high season is in Q1, whereas Brazil traditionally enters a slow season in the same quarter. This year, however, due to [drive-ins] in Brazil, we have seen both exports route active and large volumes, with Brazil exporting about 20% more year on year. The underlying kicker will also be the iron ore Simandou mine from West Africa coming on stream in late 2025 with an export capacity of 60 million tonnes.

如果我可以讓您注意左圖，您會發現交易也是反季節的。散裝旺季在第一季度，而巴西傳統上在同一季度進入淡季。然而，今年，由於巴西的[免下車]，我們看到兩條出口路線都很活躍，而且出口量很大，巴西的出口量比去年同期增加了約20%。潛在的推動因素還包括來自西非的 Simandou 鐵礦石礦將於 2025 年底投產，出口能力為 6,000 萬噸。

Let's have a look at the steel production. China is predicted to maintain a relatively flat steel production for 2024. And the steel inventories are about the same levels year on year. Also, the steel export from China, which we saw increased by a healthy 35% in 2023, is forecasted to continue at a good level this year. India continued their mission to double steel capacity by the end of this decade and had a healthy growth of 12.5% in 2023. The country is expected to continue this growth until 2030.

讓我們來看看鋼製作。預計中國將在2024年維持相對扁平的鋼生產。鋼庫存年份的水平大約是同一水平。同樣，從中國出口的鋼鐵出口在2023年增加了35％，預計今年將繼續保持良好的水平。印度的任務繼續在本世紀末之前持續鋼鐵能力，並在2023年的健康成長率為12.5％。

Last but not least, the rest of the world, after struggling with the inflation growth, is finally showing signs of a steel production rebound. A solid 7% increase in Q4 and a forecast of 6% increase in the next two years paint a positive picture for global steel production.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，在與通貨膨脹成長鬥爭之後，世界其他地區終於顯示出鋼鐵產量反彈的跡象。第四季成長7％，未來兩年的預測增加了6％，對全球鋼的產量呈現了正面的影響。

So where to focus in dry going forward? In addition to the healthy and positive ton-mile scenario, as discussed in the Capesize segment, the order book is closing in on a 30-year low. Compared to the other dry segments, Capesize holds the most promise when it comes to vessel supply.

那麼，在哪裡乾燥呢？除了在Capesize細分市場中討論的健康和積極的Ton-Mile場景外，該訂單還以30年的低點關閉。與其他乾燥部分相比，Capesize在船舶供應方面是最有望的。

The congestion in the Cape space is close to a historical low, meaning that the downside risk to fleet efficiency has already been priced. It is clear, based on the data and visibility we have today, that the Capesize segment is the place to be.

開普敦空間的擁塞接近歷史低位，這意味著機隊效率的下行風險已經被定價。顯然，根據我們今天的數據和可見性，Capesize段是一個地方。

To round off this presentation, we would like to remind you of the strong cash flow potential we hold in Golden Ocean. As the spot freight market continues to push close to the $30,000 mark, Golden Ocean yields well above 20%. We would not be surprised if we can reach the mid 30s on freight in the near future, which would yield 30%.

為了解決這場演講，我們想提醒您我們在金海洋中擁有的強大現金流潛力。隨著現貨貨運市場的持續近30,000美元，金海洋的收益率遠高於20％。如果我們可以在不久的將來到達30年代中期，這將產生30％的貨物，我們不會感到驚訝。

Yet again the Golden Ocean model with downside protection in weak markets and upside potential in solid markets have proven substance.

再次，在薄弱的市場中具有下行保護的金海洋模型和固體市場的上行潛力已被證明是事實。

I will now pass the word back to the operator and would welcome any questions. Thank you very much.

現在，我將把這個詞回到操作員，並歡迎任何問題。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Emily Harkins, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Emily Harkins，Jefferies。

Thank you. Hello, everyone. This is Emily on for Omar. Thank you for taking your questions. I wanted to ask how are you thinking about the (inaudible) ship value, particularly in the secondhand market? You've agreed to sell one of your Panamaxes? And so wondering if you're looking for maybe some more opportunities to sell off some of the older tonnage at this time?

謝謝。大家好。這是艾米麗（Emily）的奧馬爾（Omar）。感謝您提出問題。我想問您如何考慮（聽不清楚的）船舶價值，尤其是在二手市場上？您同意出售您的Panamaxes之一嗎？因此，想知道您是否正在尋找更多機會，目前還可以出售一些較舊的噸位？

Thanks, Emily. We are looking to optimize the fleet at any point of time, and some of our older Panamaxes does not fit into our current vessel scopes. It is likely that we will try to divest those at attractive prices as we go forward as well.

謝謝，艾米麗。我們希望在任何時間點優化車隊，而我們的一些較舊的Panamaxes不適合目前的船隻範圍。隨著我們的前進，我們可能會嘗試以有吸引力的價格剝離那些。

Thank you. And then secondly, both the Cape FFA curve and your guidance suggests that 1Q will be a strong quarter despite the seasonal softness. And you touched on this in the presentation, but could you please provide some further detail behind [these key] drivers causing market strength, particularly within the Capesize segment? Thank you.

謝謝。其次，Cape FFA 曲線和您的指導都表明，儘管季節性疲軟，第一季仍將是一個強勁的季度。您在演講中談到了這一點，但您能否提供一些導致市場走強的[這些關鍵]驅動因素背後的進一步細節，特別是在海岬型船領域？謝謝。

We have had a very interesting start to the year. But if you go three, four years back, when you have a Capesize ballasting from the Pacific into the Atlantic, we only really have one option. That was ballast in Brazil and then go back to China.

我們今年的開端非常有趣。但是，如果您四年前三年前走了三年，當您從太平洋到大西洋的cap養鎮流器時，我們確實只有一個選擇。那是巴西的鎮流器，然後回到中國。

A couple of years ago and especially last year as well, the bauxite option from West Africa to open up. And now that we have the insecurities around Suez, when you have a ship coming around the Cape of Good Hope, you now all can look at cargoes from Colombia and also from the UFC sales.

幾年前，尤其是去年，西非從西非開放的鋁土礦選擇。現在，我們已經有了蘇伊士的不安全感，當您有一艘船上的好希望之鬥，現在您都可以查看來自哥倫比亞的貨物以及UFC銷售的貨物。

That creates pockets of strength, which will also be as shown by the volatility going forward. But that is a lot -- looks a lot more legs to stand on now than we had in the previous years. So we are quite optimistic about the ton-mile and also the freight that we see on the Capessize going forward due to the bulks.

這會產生力量的口袋，這也將如未來的波動所示。但這很多 - 現在看起來比過去幾年要站立更多的腿。因此，我們對由於批量而在Capessize上看到的貨運非常樂觀。

Thank you. That's all for me. I'll turn it over.

謝謝。這就是我的全部。我會把它翻過來。

Thank you, Emily.

謝謝你，艾米麗。

(Operator Instructions) There are currently no further phone questions. I will hand call back to the room for web questions.

（操作員說明）目前沒有其他電話問題。我將手動回到房間，以獲取網路問題。

Let's see -- just reading through the questions. Give us one second. I think the first question relates to our LTV and our strategy surrounding leverage. And I think we have a very clear focus on cash breakeven and although asset values have come up massively, we know that they are very volatile and it's not really about the relative leverage that we have on our fleet. It's more about the absolute leverage and where we want to maintain our cash breakeven levels.

讓我們看看 - 只需閱讀問題即可。給我們一秒鐘。我認為第一個問題與我們的LTV及其涉及槓桿的策略有關。而且我認為我們非常清楚地關注現金收支平衡，儘管資產價值已經大量出現，但我們知道它們非常動盪，這並不是我們對機隊的相對槓桿作用。這更多的是關於絕對槓桿，以及我們想要維持現金損益平衡水準的地方。

We have, for the last two years, refinanced all our debt, but we have not increased the debt level of those facilities in an immaterial way for that reason. So I think our strategy to maintain a sort of a mid-cycle 55% leverage, it sustains well with maintaining a healthy balance sheet throughout the cycles and maintaining a sustainable cost level throughout the cycles.

在過去的兩年中，我們已經對所有債務進行了再融資，但是由於這個原因，我們並沒有以非物質的方式提高這些設施的債務水平。因此，我認為我們保持一種中循環55％槓桿作用的策略，可以在整個週期內保持健康的資產負債表並在整個週期內保持可持續的成本水平。

Very good. I will take the next one, how surprised we were by the strength of the market in Q1. We weren't very surprised about that. As you saw from our previous presentation, we were quite spot oriented as we moved into the quarter. So we expected a big push due to the drivers mentioned earlier, and we think this will continue going forward as well.

非常好。我將採取下一個，在第一季的市場實力中，我們感到非常驚訝。我們對此並不感到驚訝。正如您從以前的演講中看到的那樣，當我們進入該季度時，我們非常面向我們。因此，由於前面提到的駕駛員，我們期望有很大的推動力，我們認為這也將繼續前進。

As related to our bookings into Q2 at $25,000 a day, we're quite happy with that level. It means that we can continue to look for our pockets of strength in the market and into our fleet into the spot market where we see opportunities. Thank you.

與我們預訂為第二季的每天25,000美元有關，我們對這個水平感到非常滿意。這意味著我們可以繼續尋找市場上的力量，並進入我們看到機會的現貨市場。謝謝。

These were the questions that we have.

這些都是我們的問題。

There are also no further phone questions.

也沒有其他電話問題。

All right. So now, thank you for joining this call, and we will be back in three months' time.

好的。因此，現在，感謝您加入此電話，我們將在三個月後回來。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。