Golden Ocean Group Ltd (GOGL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Golden Ocean Q1 2025 release. My name is Peder Simonsen, and I'm the CEO and CFO of Golden Ocean. I will today present the Q1 2025 numbers and forward outlook. In the first quarter of 2025, we have the following main highlights. Our adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter ended up at $12.7 million compared to $69.9 million in the fourth quarter.

下午好，歡迎參加 Golden Ocean 2025 年第一季發表會。我叫 Peder Simonsen，是 Golden Ocean 的執行長兼財務長。今天我將介紹 2025 年第一季的數據和未來展望。2025年第一季度，我們主要有以下幾個亮點。我們第一季的調整後 EBITDA 最終達到 1,270 萬美元，而第四季為 6,990 萬美元。

We recorded a net loss of $44.1 million and a loss per share of $0.22 compared to a net income of $39 million and earnings per share of $0.20 in the fourth quarter. Our TCE rates were about $16,800 per day for Capesizes and about $10,400 per day for Panamax vessels and a fleet-wide net TCE of about $14,400 per day for the quarter.

我們錄得淨虧損 4,410 萬美元，每股虧損 0.22 美元，而第四季的淨收入為 3,900 萬美元，每股收益為 0.20 美元。本季度，我們的好望角型船舶 TCE 費率約為每天 16,800 美元，巴拿馬型船舶 TCE 費率約為每天 10,400 美元，整個船隊的淨 TCE 費率約為每天 14,400 美元。

We continue our intensive dry-docking program, recording dry docking costs of $38.3 million for 380 dry docking days in Q1 compared to $34.3 million in Q4 relating to 320 dry docking days. Following the share purchase by CNB Tech of close to 50% of the shares in Golden Ocean, a contemplated share-for-share merger between Golden Ocean and CMB Tech was announced after quarter end.

我們繼續進行密集的乾船塢計劃，第一季的乾船塢成本為 3,830 萬美元，共計 380 個乾船塢日，而第四季的乾船塢成本為 3,430 萬美元，共 320 個乾船塢日。繼 CNB Tech 收購 Golden Ocean 近 50% 的股份後，Golden Ocean 與 CMB Tech 於本季末宣布擬進行換股合併。

In line with our fleet renewal strategy, we have entered into agreements for the sale of two older Kamsarmax vessels at attractive prices. For Q2, we have fixed a net TCE of about $19,000 per day for 69% of Capesize days and about $11,100 per day for 81% of our Panamax days. For Q3, we have fixed a net TCE of about $20,900 per day for 16% of Capesize days and about $12,900 per day for 38% of Panamax days.

根據我們的船隊更新策略，我們已達成協議，以優惠價格出售兩艘較舊的 Kamsarmax 型船舶。對於第二季度，我們為 69% 的好望角型船租賃固定了約 19,000 美元/天的淨 TCE，為 81% 的巴拿馬型船租賃固定了約 11,100 美元/天的淨 TCE。對於第三季度，我們已為 16% 的好望角型船租賃天數確定了約 20,900 美元/天的淨 TCE，為 38% 的巴拿馬型船租賃天數確定了約 12,900 美元/天的淨 TCE。

Finally, we declared a dividend of $0.05 per share for the first quarter of 2025. Let's look a little bit closer into the numbers. As mentioned, we had a total fleet-wide TCE of $14,400 in Q1, down from $20,800 in Q4. We are in a period of frequent dry docks. From Q4 to -- and including Q2 2025, we will have dry docked around 30 of our Capesizes and Newcastlemaxes vessels. We recorded 445 days of total off-hire in Q1 versus 364 days in Q4.

最後，我們宣布 2025 年第一季每股派息 0.05 美元。讓我們更深入地看一下這些數字。如上所述，我們第一季的全船隊總 TCE 為 14,400 美元，低於第四季的 20,800 美元。我們正處於一個頻繁進行乾船塢維修的時期。從 2025 年第四季到第二季（包括第二季），我們將有大約 30 艘好望角型和紐卡斯爾型船舶進入乾船塢。我們記錄到第一季的總停租天數為 445 天，而第四季的總停租天數為 364 天。

Dry dock constitutes 380 days in the quarter and 320 days in Q4, respectively. For Q1, in addition to the nine dry dockings, we recorded 93 days due to spillover effects from delays in completion of dry dockings in Q4. Seven ships scheduled for dry dock in Q2 2025, of which three vessels have completed dry dock as of today. The rest will enter the yard in June. This resulted in net revenues of $114.7 million, down from $174.9 million in Q4.

本季乾船塢作業時間為 380 天，第四季為 320 天。對於第一季度，除了 9 次乾船塢維修外，我們還記錄了 93 天的維修時間，這是由於第四季度乾船塢維修延遲造成的溢出效應。計劃於 2025 年第二季將有 7 艘船舶進入乾船塢，其中截至今天已有 3 艘船舶完成乾船塢維修。其餘車輛將於六月進場。淨收入為 1.147 億美元，低於第四季的 1.749 億美元。

On operating expenses, we recorded $95.3 million versus $95.6 million in Q4. Our running expenses ended at $53.8 million $5.9 million down from Q4, mainly due to less calendar days in the quarter and lower expenses for ballast water treatment systems recorded in Q4. We expensed all dry docking costs, and we saw an increase in the OpEx result of $4.1 million quarter-on-quarter relating to dry docks, ending at $38.4 million versus $34.3 million in the previous quarter.

就營運費用而言，我們記錄了 9,530 萬美元，而第四季為 9,560 萬美元。我們的營運費用最終為 5,380 萬美元，比第四季度下降了 590 萬美元，主要是因為本季日曆天數減少以及第四季記錄的壓載水處理系統費用降低。我們將所有乾船塢成本計入費用，與乾船塢相關的營運支出較上季增加了 410 萬美元，最終達到 3,840 萬美元，而上一季為 3,430 萬美元。

OpEx reclassified from charter hire was $1 million, $1 million down from Q4. And we incurred $2.1 million in fuel efficiency enhancements and other vessel upgrades in the first quarter of 2025. Our G&A ended at $5.4 million, down from $6.5 million in Q4. Daily G&A came in at $614 per day, net of cost recharge to affiliated companies, $95 per day, down from Q4 due to lower legal fees.

從租船費用重新分類的營運支出為 100 萬美元，比第四季下降 100 萬美元。2025 年第一季度，我們花了 210 萬美元用於燃油效率提升和其他船舶升級。我們的 G&A 最終為 540 萬美元，低於第四季的 650 萬美元。每日一般及行政開支為每天 614 美元，扣除向關聯公司收取的成本費用（每天 95 美元）後，由於法律費用降低，較第四季有所下降。

On charter hire expense, we recorded $1.5 million versus $4.2 million in Q4 as a result of lower vessel days for the trading portfolio. On depreciation. We saw a reduction in depreciation by $3.6 million to $31.9 million in Q1 as a result of the declaration of purchase options for leased vessels with SFL and thereby extension of their useful life in our balance sheet.

在租船費用方面，由於交易組合的船舶天數減少，我們記錄了 150 萬美元，而第四季為 420 萬美元。關於折舊。由於向 SFL 申報了租賃船舶的購買選擇權，從而延長了資產負債表中租賃船舶的使用壽命，我們第一季的折舊減少了 360 萬美元，至 3,190 萬美元。

On net financial expenses, we recorded $22 million versus $23.3 million in Q4, a reduction mainly due to lower soft rates in the quarter. On derivatives and other financial income, we recorded a loss of $2.5 million compared to a gain of $13.6 million in Q4. On derivatives, we recorded a loss of $3 million versus a gain of $11.8 million in Q4.

淨財務支出方面，我們錄得 2,200 萬美元，而第四季為 2,330 萬美元，減少的主要原因是本季軟利率較低。在衍生性商品和其他金融收入方面，我們錄得虧損 250 萬美元，而第四季則獲利 1,360 萬美元。在衍生性商品方面，我們錄得虧損 300 萬美元，而第四季則獲利 1,180 萬美元。

Included in derivatives was a mark-to-market loss of $7 million on interest rate swaps in addition to a $2.7 million realized cash gain, and finally, FFA and FX derivatives, a positive result of $1.3 million. For results in investments in associates, we recorded a gain of $0.7 million compared to $1.6 million gain in Q4 relating to investments in Swiss Marine, TFG and UFC.

衍生性商品中包括 700 萬美元的利率掉期市價損失，以及 270 萬美元的已實現現金收益，最後是 FFA 和外匯衍生品，實現了 130 萬美元的正收益。就對聯營公司的投資結果而言，我們記錄了 70 萬美元的收益，而第四季對 Swiss Marine、TFG 和 UFC 的投資收益為 160 萬美元。

A net loss of $44.1 million or a $0.22 loss and a dividend of $0.05 per share declared for the quarter. Cash flow from operations came in at negative $3.3 million, down from $71.7 million in Q4. Cash flow used in financing were $15.8 million, mainly comprising of net proceeds from new financings of $50 million, which was a drawdown under our revolving credit facility, $35.9 million in scheduled debt and lease repayments and a dividend payment of $29.9 million relating to the Q4 results, total net decrease in cash of $19.1 million.

本季淨虧損 4,410 萬美元，即虧損 0.22 美元，每股股息 0.05 美元。經營現金流為負 330 萬美元，低於第四季的 7,170 萬美元。融資所用現金流為 1,580 萬美元，主要包括新融資的淨收益 5,000 萬美元（這是我們循環信貸額度下的提款）、3,590 萬美元的定期債務和租賃償還款以及與第四季度業績相關的 2,990 萬美元的股息支付，現金淨減少總額為 1,910 萬美元。

On our balance sheet, we had cash and cash equivalents of $112.6 million including $5.9 million of restricted cash. In addition, we've had $100 million of undrawn available credit lines at quarter end. Our debt and finance lease liabilities totaled $1.44 billion by end Q1, up by approximately $73 million quarter-on-quarter.

在我們的資產負債表上，我們擁有 1.126 億美元的現金和現金等價物，其中包括 590 萬美元的受限現金。此外，截至本季末，我們還有 1 億美元未動用可用信貸額度。截至第一季末，我們的債務和融資租賃負債總額為 14.4 億美元，季增約 7,300 萬美元。

Average fleet-wide loan-to-value under the company's debt facilities per quarter end was 39.2% and a book equity of $1.8 billion and a ratio of total equity to total assets of approximately 54%. In Q1, we saw seasonality play out for the main dry bulk commodities in addition to a reduction in sailing distances year-on-year.

該公司債務融資下每季末全船平均貸款價值比為 39.2%，帳面權益為 18 億美元，總權益與總資產之比約為 54%。第一季度，我們發現主要乾散貨商品呈現季節性特徵，且航行距離較去年同期減少。

Tonne miles fell 1.5% with grains and coal being the main contributors, as China reduced their imports by 14% and 25%, respectively, compared to Q1 2024. This has impacted the smaller shipping segments, the most, which Panamaxes were supported by an increase in the relative share of coal volumes.

噸里程數下降了 1.5%，其中穀物和煤炭是主要原因，因為與 2024 年第一季相比，中國分別減少了 14% 和 25% 的進口量。這對小型航運板塊影響最大，巴拿馬型船因煤炭運輸量相對份額的增加而受到支撐。

Iron ore volumes fell in line with seasonality driven by weather-related trade disruptions, in particular for Australia. In fact, Brazilian exports were slightly positive year-on-year despite more heavy rain season, which indicates infrastructure improvements. Bauxite volumes from Guinea, which had their high season in Q1, recorded a 37% year-on-year growth in Q1 with 48.8 million tonnes exported, of which approximately 85% goes to China.

受天氣相關貿易中斷的影響，鐵礦石貿易量隨季節性下降，尤其是澳洲。事實上，儘管雨季增多，但巴西出口仍略有成長，這表明基礎設施有所改善。一季度，幾內亞鋁土礦出口量達到旺季，年增 37%，出口量達 4,880 萬噸，其中約 85% 銷往中國。

On iron ore, Australian iron ore exports were impacted by an extensive cyclone season in Q1, with volumes reduced by 9.7% compared to Q4 and 2.2% year-on-year. Rain season in Brazil also impacted export volumes, but interestingly, ended higher compared to Q1 2024. Despite geopolitical unrest and lowered global growth forecasts, we have seen supportive signals from Australian and Brazilian miners on their expected annual export volumes.

鐵礦石方面，第一季澳洲鐵礦石出口受到強烈熱帶氣旋的影響，出口量較上季下降9.7%，較去年同期下降2.2%。巴西的雨季也影響了出口量，但有趣的是，與 2024 年第一季相比，出口量有所增加。儘管地緣政治動盪且全球成長預測下調，但我們看到澳洲和巴西礦業公司對其預期年度出口量發出了支持信號。

Both Rio Tinto and Vale expect 2025 full year volumes to reach 325 million to 335 million tonnes while BHP reiterates the 255 million to 265 million tonnes target. The target represents a flat year-on-year development for all three exporters. China continues to be the main importer of iron ore.

力拓和淡水河谷均預計 2025 年全年產量將達到 3.25 億至 3.35 億噸，而必和必拓則重申 2.55 億至 2.65 億噸的目標。這一目標意味著三大出口國的出口額比去年同期持平。中國繼續是鐵礦石主要進口國。

As for coal and grains, Chinese iron ore import volumes have been lower during the period with geopolitical unrest. Chinese steel production has come down quarter-on-quarter in line with seasonality and compared to Q1 2024. However, the Chinese government are continuing to stimulate the economy through lowering interest rates.

至於煤炭和穀物，在地緣政治動盪期間，中國鐵礦石進口量下降。與2024年第一季相比，中國鋼鐵產量與上一季相比均有所下降，這與季節性因素相符。不過，中國政府正繼續透過降低利率來刺激經濟。

And according to recent announcements from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, they forecast a 2% year-on-year growth in steel demand backed by further stimulus in the industrial sector counterbalancing the weak property market and consumer demand. The quality of Chinese domestic iron ore is poor and deteriorating with an estimated FE content of around 20% to 30%.

中國鋼鐵工業協會最近發布的數據顯示，受工業領域進一步刺激政策的支撐，鋼鐵需求將年增2%，以抵銷疲軟的房地產市場和消費需求。中國國內鐵礦石品質較差且不斷惡化，估計鐵含量約20%至30%。

On the back of increased pressure to decarbonize the steel industry, the Chinese government focus on high-quality coal and high FE content. And this is highly supportive to tonne mile with the largest new deposits of high-grade iron ore found in Brazil and Guinea.

在鋼鐵業脫碳壓力加大的背景下，中國政府將重點放在優質煤炭和高鐵含量煤炭。這對噸英里具有很大的支持作用，因為巴西和幾內亞發現了最大的新高品位鐵礦石礦床。

In Q4 this year, we will see the Simandou project in Guinea, West Africa commenced exports. The Simandou high-grade iron ore mine is expected to ramp up production over two years adding an additional 120 million tonnes export capacity annually. In addition, new expansions are underway in Brazil, adding 50 million tonnes in new capacity over the next years.

今年四季度，我們將看到西非幾內亞的西芒杜計畫開始出口。西芒杜高品位鐵礦預計將在兩年內提高產量，每年增加 1.2 億噸的出口量。此外，巴西正在進行新的擴張，未來幾年將增加 5,000 萬噸的新產能。

Iron ore prices continue to be well supported, trading around $100 per tonne for a long period. This compares very favorably to the breakeven rate of the major miners of around $50 per tonne delivered to China. Further, when new high-grade volumes come on stream, ore prices may fall from current levels.

鐵礦石價格繼續受到良好支撐，長期在每噸100美元左右交易。這與主要礦商向中國交付每噸約 50 美元的盈虧平衡率相比非常有利。此外，當新的高品位礦石投入使用時，礦石價格可能會從當前水準下跌。

And with domestic Chinese iron ore in the high end of the cost curve, a lower iron ore price is expected to favor more tonne mile heavy trading routes. With significant Chinese investments in mining and infrastructure in Guinea, we expect these volumes to be prioritized as a replacement for its domestic ore supporting the long-term positive outlook for the Capesize vessels.

由於中國國內鐵礦石成本處於高端，預計較低的鐵礦石價格將有利於噸英里運輸量較大的貿易航線。由於中國對幾內亞的採礦業和基礎設施進行了大量投資，我們預計這些礦石將優先取代其國內礦石，以支持好望角型船舶的長期樂觀前景。

The Guinea government has, together with Chinese industrial conglomerates and global mining giants, developed infrastructure and port facilities in an area where the largest deposits of high-quality bauxite and iron is found. Guinea and bauxite have, over the last five years, seen an average growth rate of 22%. And bauxite, which is used in the production of aluminum is supplying the booming EV industry as well as other industries in China.

幾內亞政府與中國工業集團和全球礦業巨頭合作，在優質鋁土礦和鐵礦儲量最大的地區開發基礎設施和港口設施。過去五年來，幾內亞鋁土礦的平均成長率為22%。用於生產鋁的鋁土礦正在為中國蓬勃發展的電動車產業以及其他產業提供原料。

The Q1 export volumes from Guinea showed the export capacity with volumes exceeding 48 million tonnes, 37%, up from Q1 2024. The first quarter is the high season for bauxite exports. And this year, exports have surprised on the upside, which substantiates the consensus expectation for 5% to 10% growth annually for the next two years.

幾內亞第一季的出口量顯示出出口能力，出口量超過 4,800 萬噸，比 2024 年第一季成長 37%。一季是鋁土礦出口旺季。今年出口意外上揚，證實了未來兩年年平均成長 5% 至 10% 的普遍預期。

As the Guinean bauxite trade constitutes 12% to 15% of the total Capesize tonne-mile demand, a 5% to 10% growth in volumes will represent a 1% to 1.5% growth in the tonne-mile demand, representing the full 2025 order book. We're currently seeing some instability in Guinea, whereby mining licenses have been temporarily rooked, having a shorter potential impact on exports.

由於幾內亞鋁土礦貿易占好望角型船噸英里總需求的 12% 至 15%，因此貿易量增加 5% 至 10% 將意味著噸英里需求增加 1% 至 1.5%，相當於 2025 年的全部訂單。目前我們看到幾內亞出現了一些不穩定因素，採礦許可證被暫時吊銷，對出口的潛在影響可能較短。

Due to the high importance of the iron and bauxite ore exports for the country's economy, we expect that this will be resolved. The order book remains attractive for the Capesize fleet with around 8% order book to fleet ratio. Shipyard capacity for Capesizes and Newcastlemaxes is limited and yards prioritize container and LNG and tanker orders over dry bulk vessels.

由於鐵礦石和鋁土礦出口對國家經濟的重要性，我們預計這個問題將得到解決。好望角型船隊的訂單量仍然具有吸引力，訂單量與船隊比率約為 8%。好望角型船和紐卡斯爾型船的造船廠產能有限，船廠優先考慮貨櫃船、液化天然氣船和油輪訂單，而不是乾散貨船。

Despite historically high newbuilding prices, the profit margins for dry bulk is limited compared to other vessel segments. We are in a period with increasing competitive advantages for modern vessels, both in terms of fuel efficiency, in carrying capacity, but also tightening regulations relating to safety, crew welfare and emissions. As seen on the left-hand graph, the Capesize fleet is aging rapidly.

儘管新船造價處於歷史高位，但與其他船舶類型相比，乾散貨船舶的利潤率有限。我們正處於現代船舶競爭優勢不斷增強的時期，不僅在燃油效率、載運能力方面，而且在安全、船員福利和排放方面的法規也越來越嚴格。從左圖可以看出，好望角型船隊正在快速老化。

And by 2028, over half of the global Capesize fleet will be over 15 years in a period where environmental regulations are tightening. The global Capesize fleet will, over the next two years, experience high proportion of dry docks compared to an average five-year cycle. A large share of these vessels are 15-year dry dockings normally requiring substantial investments to meet class requirements.

到 2028 年，全球超過一半的好望角型船舶的船隊服役年限將超過 15 年，而環境法規將日益收緊。與平均五年周期相比，未來兩年全球好望角型船隊將經歷更高比例的乾船塢維修。這些船舶中的大部分都需要進行為期 15 年的乾船塢維修，通常需要大量投資才能滿足船級社的要求。

The focus by major miners and traders on safety, technical additions and emissions are increasing which has substantially increased the investment needed to maintain a trading flexibility for older ships. The fleet continues to operate at a high level of efficiency with port disruptions in the lower end of the historical range. While we do not expect conditions to increase meaningfully, there is no remaining downside to fleet efficiency.

主要礦業公司和貿易商越來越關注安全、技術改進和排放，這大大增加了維持老舊船舶貿易靈活性所需的投資。船隊繼續保持高效率運營，港口中斷率處於歷史較低水平。雖然我們預計情況不會大幅改善，但船隊效率不會再受到任何負面影響。

Sailing speeds remain low and expect this to continue, particularly for the large portion of the older inefficient fleet. We are still only seeing marginal transits for the Capesizes through the Suez Canal. And while reopening will provide some reduction in tonne mile at face value, it may also reopen ton-mile accretive trades.

航行速度仍然較低，預計這種情況將持續下去，特別是對於大部分老舊低效的船隊而言。我們仍然只看到少量好望角型船舶通過蘇伊士運河。雖然重新開放將導致噸英里數從表面上減少，但也可能重新開放噸英里數增值貿易。

I will now pass the word back to the operator and welcome any questions.

我現在將訊息轉達給接線員並歡迎您提出任何問題。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Petter Haugen, ABG Sundal Collier.

彼得·豪根，ABG Sundal Collier。

Good afternoon. I was wondering if you could shed some light on the timing for the contemplated merger in terms of -- well, yes, I suppose, more -- if you can be specific on dates to look forward to in this context?

午安.我想知道您是否可以就預期合併的時間安排提供一些說明——嗯，是的，我想，更多——您是否可以具體說明一下在此背景下值得期待的日期？

Hi, Pet, no, I think as of date, it's really hard to say. We are working in accordance with the plan that was announced in the press release. And there are, obviously, in such processes, a lot of different work streams. So it's hard to be more specific than what has been announced.

嗨，Pet，不，我認為截至目前，這真的很難說。我們正在按照新聞稿中宣布的計劃開展工作。顯然，這樣的流程中存在著許多不同的工作流程。因此很難給出比已經宣布的更具體的消息。

Okay. Okay. I don't know, is it looking at the prices for the two related equities here. It seems to be a detachment between market prices and the agreed 0.95 exchange ratio. Should we interpret that as if the market is not expecting the merger to go through with such an exchange ratio? Or are there any other elements to this that -- well, I don't understand.

好的。好的。我不知道，這是在查看這裡兩隻相關股票的價格嗎？這似乎是市場價格與商定的0.95兌換率之間的脫節。我們是否應該將其解讀為市場並不期望合併以這樣的交換比率完成？或者這其中還有其他因素嗎——嗯，我不懂。

I have to say that that's something that you should probably interpret on my behalf, isn't it? I mean it's priced in the way it's priced and for whatever reason. I guess some of it has to do with liquidity in the stock, but I leave that to you to interpret.

我必須說，這可能應該由你來為我解釋一下，不是嗎？我的意思是，無論出於什麼原因，它的定價都是這樣的。我猜這部分與股票的流動性有關，但我留給你來解釋。

I understand Peder, I do understand that it's probably closer to my profession to try to explain. But as you understand. It's quite difficult to grasp that now, so 15%, 16%, 17% discount. Okay. But towards the market then, we've had sort of, well, I would say, a conventional sort of Q1, perhaps somewhat on the low end.

我理解佩德，我確實知道嘗試解釋可能更接近我的職業。但正如你所理解的。現在很難掌握這一點，所以折扣是 15%、16%、17%。好的。但就當時的市場而言，我們有一種，嗯，我想說，一種傳統的第一季度，可能有點低。

If you go back a few weeks, we had some good momentum here. But over the past, well, a few trading days, it's stagnant again. In terms of near-term expectations here, should we think that we need to see Simandou volumes coming and trying to get covered with ships? Or are there significant or sort of meaningful catalysts in the marketplace to be expected prior to that?

如果你回顧幾週前，你會發現我們在這裡取得了一些很好的動力。但在過去幾個交易日裡，它又停滯了。就近期預期而言，我們是否應該認為我們需要看到西芒杜的貨物量到來並試圖用船舶來覆蓋？或者在此之前市場上是否會出現重大或有意義的催化劑？

I think what has happened in the recent couple of weeks is that we've seen some disruptions on the Guinea export side. There's been some turmoil on force majeure being invoked on some of the mines and export facilities there. And also, we saw a breakdown of some technical equipment in Peru, also disrupting some of the market.

我認為最近幾週發生的事情是，我們看到幾內亞出口方面出現了一些中斷。一些礦場和出口設施因遭遇不可抗力而引發了一些動盪。此外，我們也發現秘魯的一些技術設備故障，這也擾亂了部分市場。

And these things not -- do not necessarily give a lot of less volumes into the market, but they impact the sentiment. And given the sort of general economic sentiment, that can impact the FFA curve, which is what prices freight. So I think incidents like that will impact the market, given the nervousness in general, but the volumes are picking up in line with seasonality.

這些因素不一定會導致市場交易量大幅減少，但會影響市場情緒。考慮到總體經濟情緒，這可能會影響 FFA 曲線，也就是運費價格。因此，我認為，考慮到普遍的緊張情緒，此類事件將對市場產生影響，但交易量正隨著季節性因素而回升。

We see that Vale is now approaching $900,000 tonnes per day, which is very solid. And I don't see that there's going to be -- that gravity will find its way here as well. So I don't think we need to wait for Simandou. We are still very positive for the second half, expect volumes to be healthy for the Capes. So that's our expectation, but it may take some time given the way the sentiment works as of now.

我們看到淡水河谷目前的日產量接近 90 萬噸，這一價格非常穩定。我不認為重力會在這裡發揮作用。所以我認為我們不需要等待西芒杜。我們對下半年仍然非常樂觀，預計好望角的產量將保持健康。這是我們的預期，但考慮到目前的情緒，這可能需要一些時間。

Okay. And in light of what is now, I would -- as I said before, not a very at least good quarter in hindsight that we saw in Q1 and with current rates also perhaps at least not in the high end. The asset prices continue to be strong here.

好的。鑑於目前的情況，正如我之前所說，事後看來，這不是一個非常好的季度，至少與第一季相比，而且目前的利率可能至少沒有達到高端。這裡的資產價格持續保持強勁。

Is it from your perspective, well, is it to be expected that we'll continue to see, well, according to Clarkson $79 million to $80 million for resale Newcastlemaxes if rates continue for the standard Capes in sort of mid-teen level? Doesn't something have to give here, either rates come up or asset prices would see some pressure.

從您的角度來看，如果標準 Cape 型船的運價繼續保持在十幾歲的水平，那麼我們是否可以繼續看到，根據克拉克森的說法，轉售 Newcastlemax 型船的價格將達到 7900 萬至 8000 萬美元？這裡沒有必要做出讓步，要嘛利率上升，要嘛資產價格面臨壓力。

Yes, I mean you've asked this question now for quite a long time and that there has been a disconnect between asset prices and sort of the rates. I think that newbuilding prices have -- are high as a function of both sort of supportive long-term fundamentals for the market, but also lack of yard capacity.

是的，我的意思是你已經問這個問題很久了，而且資產價格和利率之間存在脫節。我認為新造船價格之所以高企，一方面是因為市場有長期支撐基本面，另一方面是因為造船廠產能不足。

So I think those are very well supported. We see that also on the secondhand values, which we don't expect to come down. I mean we have Simandou, we have a lot of the demand sort of fundamentals being positive for the big ships. And not least, historically, well, good visibility on the supply side.

所以我認為這些都得到了很好的支持。我們也看到二手價值存在這種情況，我們預計它不會下降。我的意思是，我們有西芒杜，我們有很多對大型船舶有利的需求基本面。尤其重要的是，從歷史上看，供應方面具有良好的可視性。

So I don't really see what's going to bring values down. And I think it is a matter of time before this gravity trickles into the freight market as well. There are a lot of one-offs that impact this market as of now. We had obviously a good Q1 last year, sort of unusually good.

所以我真的不明白什麼會導致價值觀下降。我認為這種引力滲透到貨運市場只是時間問題。到目前為止，有許多一次性事件影響著這個市場。去年第一季我們的表現顯然不錯，可以說是異常好。

And this year, it was more in line with seasonality. And we've seen that the big miners are still very much guiding positively for full year volumes in line with last, which means that they would need to ramp up their exports significantly for the second half.

而今年，它更符合季節性。我們看到，大型礦業公司對全年出口量的預期仍與去年持非常樂觀的態度，這意味著他們需要在下半年大幅增加出口量。

So I don't think fundamentally there's anything that has changed that picture and obviously supported by risk constrained shipyard capacity and willingness to build Capesizes and Kamsarmax, I think that's not going to change in the near term.

因此，我認為從根本上來說，沒有什麼可以改變這種狀況，而且顯然受到風險限制的造船廠產能以及建造好望角型船和卡姆薩爾型船的意願的影響，我認為這種情況在短期內不會改變。

Okay, well, okay, it's going to be an interesting so (inaudible). I hand it back here to the operator. Thank you.

好的，好吧，這將是一個有趣的（聽不清楚）。我把它交還給操作員。謝謝。

(Operator instructions) Dear Speaker, there are no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Peder Simonsen for any closing remarks.

（操作員指示）尊敬的議長，沒有其他問題了。現在，我想將會議交給 Peder Simonsen 做結束語。

Thank you. I just want to thank you for joining in and have a great rest of the week.

謝謝。我只是想感謝您的加入並祝您本週剩餘時間過得愉快。