Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (GNK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Genco Shipping & Trading Limited fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call and a presentation. Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Genco's website at www.jenkohipping.com. To inform everyone, today's conference is being recorded and is now being webcast at the company's website www.gencoshipping.com.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Genco Shipping & Trading Limited 2024 年第四季收益電話會議和演示。在我們開始之前，請注意，今天的電話會議將會有一個幻燈片演示。此簡報可從 Genco 的網站 www.jenkohipping.com 取得。特此告知大家，今天的會議正在錄製中，並在公司網站 www.gencoshipping.com 上進行網路直播。

We will conduct a question and answer session after the opening remarks. Instruction will follow at that time. A webcast weekly will also be available via the link provided in today's press release as well as on the company's website.

開幕詞之後我們將進行問答環節。屆時將會進行指導。每週的網路廣播也將透過今天的新聞稿中提供的連結以及公司網站提供。

At this time I will not turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.

這次我不會把會議交給公司。請繼續。

Good morning. Before we begin our presentation, I note that in this conference call we will be making certain forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements use words such as anticipate, budget, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe, in other words in terms of similar meaning in connection with the discussion of potential future events, circumstances or future operating or financial performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and observations.

早安.在我們開始示範之前，我指出，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》的安全港條款做出某些前瞻性聲明。此類前瞻性陳述使用了預期、預算、估計、期望、預測、打算、計劃、相信等詞語，換句話說，在討論潛在的未來事件、情況或未來營運或財務表現時具有類似含義。這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和觀察。

For a discussion of factors that could cause results to differ, please see the company's press release that was issued yesterday, the materials relating to this call posted on the company's website, and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including without limitation, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and the company's reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K subsequently filed with the SEC.

有關可能導致結果不同的因素的討論，請參閱公司昨天發布的新聞稿、公司網站上發布的與本次電話會議相關的材料以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括但不限於公司截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告，以及公司隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表和 80-K 表和 80-K 表。

But this time I would like to introduce John Wobensmith, Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited

但這次我想介紹一下 Genco Shipping & Trading Limited 的執行長 John Wobensmith

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genco's fourth quarter of 2024 conference call. I will begin today's call by reviewing our Q4 2024 and year-to-date highlights. Additionally, we will provide an update on our value strategy, discuss our financial results for the quarter, as well as the industry's current fundamentals before opening the call up for questions. For additional information, please also refer to our earnings presentation posted on our website.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Genco 2024 年第四季電話會議。我將從回顧我們 2024 年第四季和年初至今的亮點開始今天的電話會議。此外，在開始提問之前，我們將提供我們的價值策略的最新信息，討論本季度的財務業績以及行業當前的基本面。欲了解更多信息，請參閱我們網站上發布的收益報告。

Starting on slide five, Q4 2024 marked another solid quarter for Genco, capping off what was a very good year for the company as we grew earnings and advanced our comprehensive value strategy focused on three pillars: dividends, deleveraging, and growth.

從第五張幻燈片開始，2024 年第四季度對 Genco 來說標誌著又一個穩健的季度，為公司非常好的一年畫上了句號，因為我們的盈利增長了，並且推進了以三大支柱為重點的綜合價值戰略：股息、去槓桿和增長。

Specifically during a time when we continue to provide shareholders with sizable returns and take additional steps to lower our financial risk, we are pleased to have acquired another high specification cape-sized vessel. In October, we took delivery of the Genco Intrepid, our third cap size acquisition over the last year, increasing our investment in modern high specification vessels to approximately $285 million since 2021.

具體來說，在我們繼續為股東提供可觀回報並採取額外措施降低財務風險的時候，我們很高興能夠收購另一艘高規格的好望角型船舶。10 月，我們接收了 Genco Intrepid，這是我們去年進行的第三次大規模收購，自 2021 年以來，我們對現代高規格船舶的投資增加至約 2.85 億美元。

Importantly, the acquisition of the Genco Intrepid is part of our broader fleet renewal strategy. Earlier in the year, we completed our exit from the four smaller and older 169,000 deadweight ton vessels and have redeployed the sale proceeds and additional cash towards the acquisition of three 2016-built Capesize vessels. Notably, these creative transactions enhance our earnings power as we add premium high quality assets to the fleet and reduced dry docking CapEx in 2024 and 2025 by $13 million.

重要的是，收購 Genco Intrepid 是我們更廣泛的船隊更新策略的一部分。今年早些時候，我們完成了四艘較小、較舊的 169,000 載重噸船舶的退出，並重新部署了銷售收益和額外現金，用於收購三艘 2016 年建造的海岬型船舶。值得注意的是，這些創造性的交易增強了我們的獲利能力，因為我們為船隊增加了優質資產，並將 2024 年和 2025 年的乾船塢資本支出減少了 1,300 萬美元。

Turning to slide six, we highlight what was a strong 2024 for Genco. Our EBITDA exceeded $150 million a nearly 50% increase versus 2024 levels. 2023 levels apologize, led by our success, increasing time charter equivalent rates to $19,107 per day from $14,766 the prior year. In addition to the strong market, we continue to outperform our benchmarks, adding approximately $1600 per day to our TCE rates, demonstrating the continued strength of our commercial platform.

轉到第六張投影片，我們重點介紹 Genco 在 2024 年的強勁表現。我們的 EBITDA 超過 1.5 億美元，較 2024 年的水準成長近 50%。 2023 年的水準與我們的成功相比有所下降，定期租船等價費率從上一年的 14,766 美元/天提高到 19,107 美元/天。除了強勁的市場之外，我們還繼續超越基準，將我們的 TCE 費率每天增加約 1600 美元，證明了我們商業平台的持續實力。

Furthermore, we also increased distributions to shareholders by 70%, declaring $1.46 per share in dividends during the year or an annualized yield of 10% on the current share price. We continue to provide sizable dividends to shareholders as highlighted on page seven. We are pleased to advance our track record of providing dividends to shareholders through market cycles as we declared $0.30 per share dividend for the fourth quarter. This marks our 22nd consecutive dividend, which in aggregate represents $6.615 per share, or 45% of our current share price as of February 18.

此外，我們還將股東的分配增加了 70%，宣布全年每股股息為 1.46 美元，或以當前股價計算的年化收益率為 10%。正如第七頁所強調的，我們繼續向股東提供可觀的股利。我們宣布第四季度每股股息為 0.30 美元，我們很高興能夠提升我們在市場週期中向股東提供股息的記錄。這是我們連續第 22 次派發股息，總計每股 6.615 美元，佔截至 2 月 18 日當前股價的 45%。

The solid fourth quarter dividend follows our recent decision to enhance our dividend policy, which is aimed at increasing cash distributable to shareholders while maintaining significant financial strength to grow and renew our fleet and further strengthen our earnings power. Specifically, we remove the dry docking CapEx line item from the dividend calculation going forward.

穩健的第四季度股息遵循了我們最近決定加強股息政策的原則，該政策旨在增加可分配給股東的現金，同時保持強大的財務實力以發展和更新我們的船隊並進一步增強我們的盈利能力。具體來說，我們將從今後的股利計算中刪除乾船塢資本支出項目。

Turning to slide eight, we believe Genco remains in a highly advantageous position moving forward. Specifically, we have an industry low net loan to value of 5%, a low cash flow break even rate, and over $330 million in undrawn revolver availability.

轉到第八張幻燈片，我們相信 Genco 在未來仍然處於非常有利的地位。具體來說，我們的淨貸款價值比為 5%，處於行業最低水平，現金流盈虧平衡率較低，且有超過 3.3 億美元的未提取循環信用額度。

Coming off of a strong 2024 dry bulk market, the beginning of 2025 has seen downward volatility in part due to seasonal factors. Despite this near term softening of freight rates, we remain constructive on the longer term drywall fundamentals, which are led by a moderate new building order book and growth in cargo volumes from long haul origins.

繼 2024 年乾散貨市場強勁表現之後，2025 年初由於季節性因素，乾散貨市場出現了下行波動。儘管近期運費有所走軟，但我們對長期石膏板基本面仍持樂觀態度，這主要得益於適度的新建築訂單和長途貨運量的增長。

At the same time, given our strong balance sheet, favorable risk, reward balance, and significant access to capital, we built Genco to capitalize on diverse freight market environments to both opportunistically grow the fleet through the dry bulk cycles and continue to provide sizable returns to shareholders. I will now turn the call over to Peter Allen, our Chief Financial Officer.

同時，鑑於我們強勁的資產負債表、有利的風險與回報平衡以及充足的資本管道，我們建立 Genco 是為了利用多樣化的貨運市場環境，透過乾散貨週期抓住機會擴大船隊，並繼續為股東提供可觀的回報。現在我將把電話轉給我們的財務長彼得艾倫 (Peter Allen)。

Thank you, John. On slides 10 through 12, we highlight our fourth quarter financial results. Genco recorded a net income of $12.7 million or $0.29 basic and diluted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA Q4 totaled $32.7 million bringing the yearly total to $151.2 million an increase of 49% year over year.

謝謝你，約翰。在投影片 10 至 12 上，我們重點介紹了第四季的財務表現。Genco 的淨收入為 1,270 萬美元，即每股基本收益和稀釋收益 0.29 美元。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 總計 3,270 萬美元，全年總額達 1.512 億美元，較去年同期成長 49%。

During Q4, our TCEs increased on a year to year basis, led by our cape-sized vessels, which earned a TC rate of over $25,000 per day during the quarter, or approximately $3000 per day greater than the same period of last year, highlighting the significant operating leverage of the capesized sector.

第四季度，我們的 TCE 同比成長，其中以好望角型船舶為主，這些船舶本季的 TC 費率超過 25,000 美元/天，比去年同期高出約 3,000 美元/天，凸顯了好望角型船舶領域顯著的經營槓桿作用。

On slide 13, we showed the trajectory of our debt outstanding and our continued voluntary debt repayments. Over the last four years we have paid down 80% of our debt or nearly $360 million which has resulted in a net loan to value ratio of only 5%.

在投影片 13 上，我們展示了我們的未償債務的走勢以及我們持續自願償還債務的軌跡。在過去四年中，我們償還了 80% 的債務，即近 3.6 億美元，這使得淨貸款價值比率僅為 5%。

In 2024, specifically, we voluntarily paid down $110 million of debt under our revolving credit facility, and we estimate that this will reduce interest expense by approximately $6 million on an annualized basis, or $400 per vessel per day on our cash flow rate.

具體來說，2024 年，我們自願償還了循環信貸額度下的 1.1 億美元債務，我們估計，這將按年率減少約 600 萬美元的利息支出，或按我們的現金流率減少每艘船每天 400 美元。

Voluntarily paying down debt highlights the importance and significant flexibility that our 100% revolving credit facility structure offers us and that we can pay down debt to actively manage interest expense without losing borrowing capacity to capture a creative growth opportunities.

自願償還債務凸顯了我們 100% 的循環信貸結構為我們帶來的重要性和巨大靈活性，我們可以償還債務以積極管理利息支出，而不會失去借貸能力以抓住創造性的成長機會。

Turning to slide 14, we will present a current snapshot of Genco's financial position as of December 31, 2024. We have a cash and debt balance of $44 million and $90 million dollars respectively, resulting in a net debt position of $46 million and an industry low net loan to value ratio of approximately 5% on our 42 vessel fleet. Additionally, we have $337 million of undrawn revolver availability that we can utilize for growth opportunities among other uses.

前往第 14 張投影片，我們將展示截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日 Genco 財務狀況的最新快照。我們的現金和債務餘額分別為 4,400 萬美元和 9,000 萬美元，導致淨債務狀況為 4,600 萬美元，而我們 42 艘船隊的淨貸款價值比率處於行業最低水平，約為 5%。此外，我們還有 3.37 億美元的未提取循環信用額度，我們可以利用這些資金來獲得成長機會以及其他用途。

Moving to slide 15, we highlight our quarterly dividend policy, which targets a distribution based on 100% of quarterly cash flows as a voluntary reserve. For the fourth quarter, our formula resulted in a $0.30 per share dividend or an annualized yield of 8%, nearly doubled the two-year treasury rate of approximately 4%.

轉到第 15 頁，我們重點介紹我們的季度股利政策，該政策的目標是根據 100％ 的季度現金流作為自願儲備進行分配。對於第四季度，我們的公式得出的結果是每股 0.30 美元的股息或 8% 的年化收益率，幾乎是兩年期公債利率約 4% 的兩倍。

Looking ahead to Q1 2025, we currently have 75% of our available days fixed at a rate of $12,366 per day as compared to our anticipated cash flow break even rate excluding dry docking related CapEx of $8,873 per vessel per day.

展望 2025 年第一季度，我們目前有 75% 的可用天數固定在 12,366 美元/天的費率，而我們預期的現金流盈虧平衡率（不包括乾船塢相關資本支出）為每艘船每天 8,873 美元。

We note that while Genco, like much of the industry, has a high dry docking year in 2025, we plan to front load these dry dockings during the first half of the year and seek to maximize fleetwide utilization in the second half of the year, which tends to be seasonally stronger from a freight rate perspective.

我們注意到，雖然 Genco 與業內大部分公司一樣，在 2025 年是乾船塢高峰年，但我們計劃在上半年提前進行這些乾船塢作業，並尋求在下半年最大程度提高全船隊的利用率，因為從運費角度來看，下半年往往更具季節性。

I will now turn the call over to Michael Orr, our drive off market analyst, to discuss industry fundamentals.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的市場分析師 Michael Orr，討論產業基本面。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Beginning on slide 17, the dive bulk market experienced a strong 2024 led by the Baltic Capesize Index, which averaged $22,593 per day. Last year was atypical from a seasonality perspective in the sense that the market was strong from the start of the year and through Q3, but then eased into year end.

從第 17 張投影片開始，潛水散貨市場在 2024 年經歷了強勁增長，由波羅的海好望角型船指數 (Baltic Capesize Index) 引領，平均每天 22,593 美元。從季節性的角度來看，去年是不尋常的一年，因為市場從年初到第三季一直表現強勁，但隨後在年底有所放緩。

So far in 2025 to date, the market has seen traditional seasonal trends return in Q1, such as weather disruptions in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, impacting cargo availability, the front loaded nature of the new building deliveries, particularly for minor bulk vessels, as well as the timing of the Chinese New Year.

截至目前，2025 年第一季市場已出現傳統季節性趨勢的回歸，例如大西洋和太平洋流域的天氣幹擾影響了貨物供應、新船交付的前端特性（尤其是小型散裝貨船），以及中國新年的時間。

Specifically, as highlighted on page 18, due to poor weather conditions and scheduled maintenance, Brazilian iron ore exports have pulled back since the highs of Q3, with January exports approximately 11% lower than the second half of 2024. These reduced long haul iron ore trade volumes, together with an easing import congestion, have temporarily thrown off the supply and demand balance for the sector, impacting freight rates to the downside.

具體而言，如第 18 頁所強調的，由於惡劣的天氣條件和計劃維護，巴西鐵礦石出口自第三季度的高點以來有所回落，1 月份出口量比 2024 年下半年下降約 11%。長途鐵礦石貿易量的減少，加上進口擁堵情況的緩解，暫時打亂了該行業的供需平衡，導致運費下跌。

During the slide 19, 2024 marked another year after year for both Chinese iron ore and coal imports. Iron ore imports grew by 5% year over year, some of which replenished inventories. While current Chinese stockpiles are below 2022 highs in absolute terms, these levels are approximately 19% higher than this time last year. China's steel production declined in 2024, while steel exports increased by 25%, highlighting reduced domestic demand.

在第19個土石流期間，2024年標誌著中國鐵礦石和煤炭進口量又一個年頭。鐵礦石進口量較去年同期成長5%，部分補充了庫存。雖然目前中國庫存的絕對值低於 2022 年的高點，但這一水準比去年同期高出約 19%。2024年我國鋼鐵產量下降，鋼鐵出口卻成長25%，凸顯國內需求減少。

China continues to export over 10% of the steel it produces, mostly going to other Asian nations as well as the Middle East, with its proportion of exports to steel output growing over recent years. China's excess steel has remained a point of contention, inducing protectionist measures globally.

中國持續出口超過10%的鋼鐵產量，主要銷往其他亞洲國家以及中東，出口占鋼鐵產量的比例近年來不斷上升。中國的鋼鐵過剩一直是爭議焦點，引發了全球範圍內的貿易保護主義措施。

Turning to pages 20 and 21, we highlight the long haul iron ore and bauxite trade growth expected from Brazil and West Africa in the coming years. While growth this year is expected to be marginal, there are significant growth finds expected in 2026 and 2027, which can absorb over 200 capesized vessels, which is more than the current capesized new building order book. Supply constraints and capesized new building activity combined with added longer long haul trading distances are two key catalysts for the sector.

翻到第 20 和 21 頁，我們重點介紹了未來幾年巴西和西非預計的長期鐵礦石和鋁土礦貿易成長。雖然預計今年的成長幅度很小，但預計 2026 年和 2027 年將顯著成長，可吸收超過 200 艘好望角型船舶，超過目前好望角型船舶的新造訂單。供應限制、好望角型船舶新造船活動以及更長的長途貿易距離是該行業發展的兩大關鍵催化劑。

As depicted on slide 22, the Trump administration has initiated and threatened tariffs across a wide range of trade partners since the inauguration in January. Many of these tariffs, such as the blanket 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports, have been delayed. However, the US has implemented a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, prompting China to impose 15% duties on US coal and LNG, as well as 10% on crude oil and agricultural equipment.

如投影片 22 所示，自今年 1 月就職以來，川普政府就已發起並威脅對眾多貿易夥伴徵收關稅。許多關稅，例如對加拿大和墨西哥進口產品徵收 25% 的全面關稅，都已被推遲。然而，美國對所有中國進口產品徵收10%的關稅，促使中國對美國煤炭和液化天然氣徵收15%的關稅，對原油和農業設備徵收10%的關稅。

Additionally, President Trump has announced that he plans to institute a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports regardless of origin. So far, the new tariff regimes have had a generally limited impact on global drywall trade. However, the tariffs have been more aggressive than what we witnessed in the first Trump administration as they are being implemented in a broad-based manner on multiple trade partners simultaneously.

此外，川普總統宣布，他計劃對所有鋼鐵和鋁進口產品徵收 25% 的關稅，無論其原產地如何。到目前為止，新的關稅制度對全球石膏板貿易的影響總體有限。然而，這些關稅比我們在川普第一任政府時期看到的更加激進，因為它們是同時對多個貿易夥伴廣泛實施的。

In terms of the grain trade as detailed on page 23, which was impacted by the first US-China trade war, we are currently entering South American grain season. Following a strong US harvest, expectations are for another bumper year for both Brazilian and Argentine shipments, which should be supported for minor bulk trades. During February so far, we've seen supermax pot rates increase by approximately 40% in part due to these dynamics.

就第 23 頁詳述的受到第一次中美貿易戰影響的穀物貿易而言，我們目前正進入南美穀物季節。繼美國大豐收之後，巴西和阿根廷的出口量預計將迎來另一個豐收年，這將為小宗散裝貿易提供支撐。截至目前，二月期間，我們已經看到超級大麻費率上漲了約 40%，部分原因在於這些動態。

Moving to slide 24, the disruptions in Panama and the Red Sea have gone in different directions. Since February 2024, low drive bulk Panama Canal transits have increased over 200% and are back to near average levels. On the other hand, despite a tenuous Gaza ceasefire, Suez Canal transits are still well below normal levels and are likely to remain at lower levels in the near term until further steps are taken in the ceasefire agreement.

轉到第 24 張投影片，巴拿馬和紅海的混亂局面已經朝著不同的方向發展。自 2024 年 2 月以來，巴拿馬運河低載散貨過境量增加了 200% 以上，並已恢復到接近平均水準。另一方面，儘管加薩停火協議脆弱，但蘇伊士運河的過境量仍遠低於正常水平，而且在停火協議採取進一步措施之前，短期內可能仍將維持在較低水平。

Regarding the supply side outlined on slide 25, net fleet growth for 2024 was 3% in line with the previous year. The cap segment continues to have the smallest order book among the sectors, with only two capes delivered in January, the least amount of January cape delivery since 1999. There are currently only 36 more cape deliveries expected this year.

對於幻燈片 25 中概述的供應方面，2024 年的淨船隊增長率為 3%，與上一年持平。鋼坯板塊仍然是所有板塊中訂單量最少的板塊，1 月份僅有 2 艘鋼坯交付，為 1999 年以來 1 月份鋼坯交付量的最少時期。目前預計今年僅會再交付 36 艘好望角型船。

While we expect volatility in the freight market, the foundation of a low supply growth picture provides a solid basis for a constructive view of the dry bulk market going forward.

雖然我們預期貨運市場會出現波動，但低供應成長前景為未來乾散貨市場的建設性看法提供了堅實的基礎。

This concludes our presentation, and we would now be happy to take your questions.

我們的演示到此結束，現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Okay, thank you ladies and gentlemen. (Operator Instructions).

好的，謝謝女士、先生。（操作員指令）。

And your first question comes from the line of [Omar Nokta] whichever is Omar. Please go ahead.

您的第一個問題來自 [Omar Nokta]，無論是 Omar 還是其他。請繼續。

Hi, morning, John, Peter, Michael. Good update.

嗨，早安，約翰、彼得、麥可。很好的更新。

Morning,

早晨，

Morning, yeah, just overall, I think, just looking at, the release and obviously the market is what it is, but just in terms of Genco, clearly you're in strong shape, maybe the strongest you've ever been. LTV is at just 5% as you highlight, liquidity is pushing close to $400 million. How do you think about where you're positioned right now, how the drive up market has developed here recently. And how do you think Genco is going to be here in terms of opportunities that may be coming up, especially given the softer market of late?

早上好，是的，總的來說，我認為，只是看一下發布情況，顯然市場就是這樣，但就 Genco 而言，顯然你的狀態很好，也許是有史以來最強的。正如您所強調的，LTV 僅為 5%，但流動性接近 4 億美元。您如何看待您現在的定位，以及這裡的駕駛市場最近如何發展。您認為 Genco 將會面臨哪些機遇，尤其是考慮到近期市場較為疲軟的情況？

Yeah, thanks. So look, this plays right into how we set this company up 2.5, almost 3 years ago with the value strategy. And what I mean by that is we've always want, we wanted to put the company in a position where it can always play offense and clearly you're, you've seen that happen in 2024 with large dividend payouts due to the favorable cash flows, the fleet renewal that we were still able to do in 2024.

是的，謝謝。所以你看，這正好符合我們在 2.5 年到近 3 年前如何利用價值策略建立這家公司。我的意思是，我們一直希望，我們希望讓公司處於一個可以一直進攻的位置，很明顯，你已經看到這種情況在 2024 年發生了，由於有利的現金流，我們支付了巨額股息，我們在 2024 年仍然能夠更新機隊。

And as we look at 2025, while it may be from a rate standpoint softer than 2024, we believe that is going to allow us to acquire additional vessels at lower prices, particularly focusing on eco type capes and ultramaxes.

展望 2025 年，雖然從費率角度來看可能比 2024 年要低，但我們相信這將使我們能夠以更低的價格收購更多船舶，尤其是生態型好望角型散裝貨船和超靈便型散裝貨船。

So again I just go back to this is what we set this company up for to thrive in all freight environments and while they maybe have a little softer situation in the first part of this year, we think that'll breed opportunity for the company to grow and with a 5% net debt we can do that extremely easy without sacrificing anything on the dividend side.

因此，我再次回到這個問題上，這就是我們為公司設定的目標，使其在所有貨運環境中蓬勃發展。儘管今年上半年的情況可能會稍微疲軟一些，但我們認為這將為公司帶來成長的機會，而且在 5% 的淨債務下，我們可以非常輕鬆地做到這一點，而無需在股息方面做出任何犧牲。

Okay, thanks, John. That that that's nice to hear and obviously nice to be able to play offense in a market like this, and I guess maybe just on your last point on the dividend, your payout policy is pretty simple. You pay out operating cash flow less that that $19 million reserve. How do you think about the setup here for the first quarter earnings may be slipping in the red just given the low spot rates. How do you think about what the dividend would be in that, with that dynamic?

好的，謝謝，約翰。很高興聽到這個消息，顯然能夠在這樣的市場中發揮進攻作用也很不錯，我想也許只是關於股息的最後一點，你的支付政策非常簡單。您支付的營運現金流少於 1,900 萬美元的儲備金。您如何看待第一季的獲利情況？考慮到較低的現貨價格，第一季的獲利可能會出現赤字。在這種動態情況下，您認為紅利會是多少？

Yeah, and certainly this question, comes up, I think, so first of all, we're very much committed to the value strategy which includes quarterly dividends, as you pointed out that that formula is very straightforward and there's a very again straightforward strategy on that.

是的，我認為這個問題肯定會出現，首先，我們非常致力於包括季度股息在內的價值策略，正如您所指出的，這個公式非常簡單，而且有一個非常簡單的策略。

Definitely downward volatility in the first quarter, but I think all you have to do is go back and look at our track record of dividends during previous periods of softness, even when at the time the formula would have produced, a zero dividend Q1 2023, Q3 2023, the formula spit out at zero during those quarters, but we still elected to pay $0.15 a share.

第一季肯定是向下波動的，但我認為你所要做的就是回顧一下我們在之前疲軟時期的股息記錄，即使當時的公式會產生零股息，2023 年第一季度、2023 年第三季度，公式得出的結果是零股息，但我們仍然選擇支付每股 0.15 美元。

So we, we've, I think there's a very defined track record now in terms of what the board and the management team and the company. Their commitment to the value strategy you pointed out the quarterly reserve. It actually works out to about $0.45 a share. So there's quite a bit of reserve on a short term basis to to tap as needed. Doesn't mean we're going to pay out the whole reserve, but it certainly gives us a lot of flexibility to counteract short term volatility in the freight markets, which is exactly what we believe is happening right now.

所以，我認為，就董事會、管理團隊和公司而言，現在已經有了非常明確的業績記錄。他們對您指出的價值策略的承諾是季度儲備。實際價值約為每股 0.45 美元。因此，短期內有相當多的儲備可以在需要時動用。這並不意味著我們要支付全部儲備金，但它確實給了我們很大的靈活性來抵消貨運市場的短期波動，而這正是我們認為目前正在發生的情況。

So it's again it's, I just go back to the same thing. It's about playing offense, Omar. We've set this company up to continue paying decent sized dividends even in periods where we have softness in rates and growth is very much a factor still for us.

所以又是一遍又一遍，我只是回到同樣的事情。這是為了進攻，奧馬爾。我們已經設立了這家公司，即使在利率疲軟和成長仍然是我們關注的重要因素的時期，它仍將繼續支付相當數量的股息。

Got it. Great. Oh thanks, John, very helpful. I'll turn it over.

知道了。偉大的。哦，謝謝，約翰，非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thanks, Omar.

謝謝，奧馬爾。

And your next question comes from the line of Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Chris, please go ahead.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的克里斯羅伯森 (Chris Robertson)。克里斯，請繼續。

Hey, good morning, guys, and thank you for taking my questions. Just with regards to pulling the dry docking forward, you're not the only public player that's trying to front load, this year just due to the raid environment, and I'm assuming other private players are doing so as well.

嘿，大家早安，感謝你們回答我的問題。僅就提前進行乾船塢而言，您並不是唯一一個今年僅僅因為突襲環境而嘗試提前加載的公共玩家，並且我假設其他私人玩家也是這樣做的。

Additionally, there's a large portion of the fleet that was built in 2010 that that have to do special surveys and undergo dry docking this year. So do you see any potential for I guess upside as effective capacity in the fleet is reduced because everyone's trying to rush to the yard.

此外，2010 年建造的大部分船隻今年必須進行特殊檢驗並進入乾船塢。那麼，您是否認為有任何上升潛力？因為每個人都想趕往船廠，導致船隊的有效運力減少。

Maybe a little bit. I actually think that that's being made, it's being made a little bigger than it actually is. I believe actually next year is an even larger dry docking year if you look at the fleet overall.

可能有一點。我確實認為它正在被製造出來，並且被製造得比實際上要大一些。我相信，如果從整個船隊來看，明年的乾船塢規模實際上會更大。

In terms of what Genco's doing, we're not necessarily pulling things forward in 2025, and we obviously have a set regulatory schedule in terms of when we need to do our dry dockings, but we certainly try to pull things forward as much as we can in the earlier part of the year, to make opportunity costs as low as possible on dry dockings, particularly this quarter when we're having, the normal seasonal softness. But I'm not so sure how much of a factor it is this year, but as I, again, next year is even heavier, so maybe we start to see it as we get into next year.

就 Genco 的做法而言，我們不一定會將事情提前到 2025 年，而且我們顯然有一個關於何時進行乾船塢的既定監管時間表，但我們肯定會盡可能地將事情提前到年初，以盡可能降低乾船塢的機會成本，尤其是本季度，我們正處於正常的季節性疲軟時期。但我不太確定今年它的影響有多大，但我認為明年的影響會更大，所以也許我們在進入明年時就會開始看到它。

Okay, gotcha. All right. My second question is, just as it relates to the Suez Canal transit, John, could you talk about which segment of the tribal sector this impacted the most and what do you think normalization in the Suez means for overall, decrease in time mile demand if that were to normalize.

好的，明白了。好的。我的第二個問題是，就蘇伊士運河過境而言，約翰，您能否談談這對部落地區的哪個部分影響最大，以及您認為蘇伊士運河的正常化對整體意味著什麼，如果實現正常化，時間英里需求將減少。

I don't think it's very much in dry bulk, what maybe it's 1%. I can tell you Genco as a company has no plans at this point to transit the Red Sea area. We will continue to go around Africa for at least the at least the near term as we see it. We still think it's a very volatile situation there and the last thing you want is to have a ship and crew, everything looks good one day and all of a sudden you're in in the middle of the Red Sea and you can't turn around and, the world blows up again, and you have attacks. So I, for the time being, we're staying away. I think a lot of other ship owners are, clearly not everyone, but it's not a risk that we want to take with our ship and crew.

我認為乾散貨的佔比不大，可能只有 1%。我可以告訴你們，Genco 公司目前沒有穿越紅海地區的計畫。就我們所知，至少在短期內，我們將繼續在非洲遊歷。我們仍然認為那裡的局勢非常不穩定，你最不希望看到的是，有一天，你有一艘船和船員，一切看起來都很好，但突然間，你卻到了紅海的中心，無法掉頭，世界再次爆炸，你遭受襲擊。因此，我們暫時不會去。我認為很多其他船東都這麼認為，顯然不是所有人，但我們不想讓我們的船舶和船員承擔這樣的風險。

Yeah, it's smart for the crew safety especially. All right guys, thank you for the time. I'll turn it over.

是的，這對機組人員的安全尤其重要。好的，謝謝大家的時間。我把它翻過來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions). And your next question comes from the line of Sherif Elmaghrabi with BTIG. Sherif, please go ahead.

（操作員指令）。您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Sherif Elmaghrabi。警長，請繼續。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. It's a couple on the market, when we look at the time rider market, recent fixtures by some other owners are showing a bit of a bifurcation between vessel classes.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。這是市場上的一對夫婦，當我們看看時間騎手市場時，其他一些船主最近的安排顯示出船隻等級之間的一些分歧。

Capes aren't too far below where the Liberty and the Endeavor are fixed, but smaller vessels are a bit lower, so I'm wondering what's behind the relative strength in capes even as the spark market goes through this sort of seasonal and weather impacted slump.

海角型船的價格與自由號和奮進號的價格相差不大，但小型船舶的價格要低一些，因此，我想知道，即使火花市場經歷了這種受季節性和天氣影響的低迷，海角型船的價格仍然相對強勁，原因是什麼。

So I'm a little confused because, one year TC rates on capes are definitely below 20 at this point. So they have been pushed down, just like every other, it's like every other market on the smaller ships as well as the larger ships. So they've definitely seen that downward pressure because of where spot rates are and a lot of times that cap one year TC gets priced somewhat off of, the daily FFA curve. Because I think, in that market that FFA those FFA's are being used more so than in the in the mid-sized vessels.

所以我有點困惑，因為目前海角一年期 TC 利率肯定低於 20。因此，它們就被壓低了，就像其他所有船舶一樣，就像其他所有市場上的小型船舶和大型船舶一樣。因此，他們肯定看到了下行壓力，因為現貨價格在哪裡，而且很多時候一年期 TC 的定價上限與每日 FFA 曲線有些偏離。因為我認為，在 FFA 市場中，這些 FFA 的使用比在中型船舶中更為廣泛。

Okay, yeah, it could be that some of the fixtures I saw were for more than a year, so maybe that's a driver, but shifting to my second question, the iron ore and bauxite expansions you highlighted on slide 20, for context, the tanker trade. The last couple of years we've seen some important refineries come online, but the rent to full production has taken a year or more. So for these three iron ore bauxite projects, do you have a sense of how the cadence of those 167 tons should start making an impact in the dry bulk trade?

好的，是的，可能是我看到的一些合約期限超過了一年，所以也許這是一個驅動因素，但轉到我的第二個問題，即您在第 20 張幻燈片中強調的鐵礦石和鋁土礦擴張，以及油輪貿易的背景。過去幾年，我們看到一些重要的煉油廠投入運營，但從租賃到全面生產需要一年甚至更長時間。那麼，對於這三個鐵礦石鋁土礦項目，您是否知道這 167 噸的節奏將如何開始對乾散貨貿易產生影響？

Sure, so I would call it an educated guess, I would tell you you'll see full ramp up as we get into 2027 and 2028. They certainly have indicated shipments by the end of this year. I don't believe those are going to be large shipments. I might, I think they'll be more symbolic that it's up and going more than anything else. And then a real ramp up should begin as you get into the second half of '26 and then '27, and as I said, by the time we get into early '28, you should have that full run rate of 120 million tons.

當然，所以我會稱之為有根據的猜測，我會告訴你，當我們進入 2027 年和 2028 年時，你會看到全面上升。他們確實已經表明將在今年年底前發貨。我不相信這些會是大量的出貨。也許吧，我認為它們比其他任何東西都更具有像徵意義，表明它的崛起和發展。然後，當進入 26 年下半年和 27 年時，真正的增長應該開始，正如我所說的，到 28 年初，應該能夠達到 1.2 億噸的全部運行率。

That's helpful. Thanks very much for the color.

這很有幫助。非常感謝這個顏色。

Yeah, you're welcome. And don't lose sight of the fact as well that you know you've got growth from valet as well that's going to come a little sooner. That's obviously still a long haul trade, and we still have growth on the bauxite side, at least through '26 and probably into '27 as well coming out of West Africa and and going going east.

是的，別客氣。另外，不要忽視這樣一個事實：你知道你也能從代客泊車中獲得成長，而且這種成長會來得更快一些。這顯然仍然是一項長期貿易，而且我們在鋁土礦方面仍然保持成長，至少會持續到26年，甚至可能持續到27年，我們將從西非走向東部。

And your next question comes from the line of Poe Fratt with Alliance Global Partners. Poe, please go ahead.

您的下一個問題來自 Alliance Global Partners 的 Poe Fratt。坡先生，請說。

Hey, good morning, John. Comprehensive presentation as always. Can you just talk about the play between, buying assets, you're talking about growth, you're clearly emphasizing growth, buying modern tonnage and when you compare that to buying your own stock, you're in the market, you're probably not going to be able to get a huge discount to NAB. You're going to pay market prices for all intents and purposes, but conversely, you can go into the open market and buy your own stock at a pretty good discount to NAB. Can you just talk about how you assess that, those different opportunities?

嘿，早上好，約翰。一如既往的全面介紹。您能否談談購買資產之間的博弈，您談論的是增長，您顯然強調增長，購買現代噸位，當您將其與購買自己的股票進行比較時，您在市場上，您可能無法獲得 NAB 的巨額折扣。無論出於什麼目的，你都要支付市場價格，但相反，你可以進入公開市場，以比 NAB 相當低的價格購買自己的股票。您能談談您如何評價這些不同的機會嗎？

Sure, first is we're a shipping company and we make money by buying ships and operating them and, using those cash flows to, continue to pay down debt, generate ROIC, and most importantly return dividends to shareholders.

當然，首先我們是一家航運公司，我們透過購買船舶和營運船舶來賺錢，並利用這些現金流繼續償還債務，產生投資報酬率，最重要的是向股東返還股息。

So I think it comes down to a question of is it dividends or share buybacks? We have done a tremendous amount of work on share buybacks. We have not seen them work in shipping in any sector as a whole.

所以我認為歸根究底問題是股利還是股票回購？我們在股票回購方面做了大量工作。我們還沒有看到他們在任何行業的航運領域工作。

We do believe returning money to shareholders in the form of dividends is a is a better way to go. And when I look at share buyback programs that have been done this year, with the exception of one company, our TSR is actually better than the companies that are that have been performed share buybacks.

我們確實相信以股利的形式向股東返還資金是更好的方式。當我回顧今年已經實施的股票回購計畫時，除了一家公司外，我們的 TSR 實際上比已經進行股票回購的公司更好。

So we we fundamentally believe the best way to generate shareholder returns is through dividends. The shipping side again, we're a shipping company, we need to continue to grow our fleet and cash flows to generate ROIC.

因此，我們從根本上相信，創造股東回報的最佳方式是透過股利。再次是航運方面，我們是一家航運公司，我們需要繼續擴大我們的船隊和現金流以產生投資回報。

Sounds good. So no change in your previous, your historic opinion on it, on stock buybacks. Can you just talk about the reserve in the presentation, you still have for the first quarter that full reserve. Where, does it make sense at this point in time, you're already 72% covered and, called 12,000, clearly you're not going to, generate a significant a dividend in the first quarter, at least according to, my calculations. So why not flex down to the reserve right now instead of waiting until next quarter, when you report.

聽起來不錯。因此，您之前對股票回購的歷史看法並沒有改變。您能否在演示中談談儲備金，第一季您仍然擁有全部儲備金。現在這個時間點，這是否有意義，您已經覆蓋了 72%，並且稱為 12,000，顯然您不會在第一季產生可觀的股息，至少根據我的計算。那麼，為什麼不現在就減少儲備，而不是等到下個季度再報告呢？

Look, I think it's again, I think it's just about being consistent though, we give the guidance, a quarter forward and I agree. I'm not sure what what the actual formula will spit out, but we definitely had a soft first quarter across the industry, but again, we have that reserve that we can flex and use to smooth out quarterly dividends as we've done in the past and you know I can't say it enough. We're we're committed to the quarterly dividends and the value strategy, and I think it's working extremely well. I'm not sure if most companies will even have the ability to do that in the first quarter and pay a dividend.

看，我認為這只是保持一致，我們給了指導，提前了一個季度，我同意。我不確定實際的公式會得出什麼結果，但整個行業第一季的業績確實比較疲軟，但同樣，我們有儲備金，可以靈活運用，並用來平滑季度股息，就像我們過去所做的那樣，你知道，我說得再多也不為過。我們致力於季度股利和價值策略，我認為效果非常好。我不確定大多數公司是否有能力在第一季做到這一點並支付股息。

Understood and John, you applied, based on your history that, the minimum level of the dividend should, at least I heard $0.15 a quarter. Is that something we should sort of build into expectations or is that, did you not mean that?

明白，約翰，根據你的歷史記錄，你申請的股息最低水平應該，至少我聽說每季 0.15 美元。這是我們應該在期望中建立的東西嗎，或者說，你不是這個意思？

Well, I didn't address it though. I addressed that we had $0.45 per share of reserve to have as optionality in terms of what what the board and the management team put forward as the dividend. I've certainly pointed to past history. But in terms of a decision that's been made yet, no, we want to get through the first quarter. We want to see what the cash flows are.

嗯，但我還沒有解決這個問題。我說過，我們有每股 0.45 美元的儲備，可以選擇董事會和管理團隊提出的股利。我當然指出了過去的歷史。但就已經做出的決定而言，不，我們希望度過第一季。我們想看看現金流是多少。

We've obviously as well, this is, as I said earlier on the call, it's a heavy dry docking year, which is why we took out the CapEx minus out of the out of the formula going forward. Because we have such a very strong balance sheet and we still have positive fundamentals on the market.

顯然，正如我早些時候在電話會議上所說的那樣，今年是乾船塢作業繁忙的一年，這就是為什麼我們將資本支出減去未來的公式。因為我們的資產負債表非常強勁，而且市場基本面仍然良好。

Sounds good. Thanks for taking my question, John.

聽起來不錯。感謝您回答我的問題，約翰。

Thank you, Poe.

謝謝你，Poe。

As there are no further questions at this time, this includes your conference call for today. I thank you for participating and ask you to please disconnect your lines.

由於目前沒有其他問題，這包括您今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與並請您斷開您的線路。