Globe Life Inc (GL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to your host, Stephen Mota, Senior Director of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

（操作員指示）現在，我將把您交給主持人、投資者關係高級總監 Stephen Mota，開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining the call today are Frank Svoboda and Matt Darden, our co-Chief Executive Officers; Tom Kalmbach, our Chief Financial Officer; Mike Majors, our Chief Strategy Officer; and Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel.

謝謝。大家早安。今天參加電話會議的有我們的聯合執行長 Frank Svoboda 和 Matt Darden；我們的財務長 Tom Kalmbach；我們的首席策略長 Mike Majors；以及我們的總法律顧問 Brian Mitchell。

Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our earnings release in 2024 10-K on file with the SEC. Some of our comments may also contain non-GAAP measures. Please see our earnings release and website for discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.

我們對您的問題的一些評論或回答可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅供一般指導之用。因此，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 2024 年 10-K 收益報告。我們的一些評論可能還包含非公認會計準則衡量標準。請參閱我們的收益報告和網站，以了解有關這些條款以及與 GAAP 指標的對帳的討論。

I will now turn the call over to Frank.

現在我將電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, net income was $255 million or $3.01 per share compared to $254 million or $2.67 per share a year ago. Net operating income for the quarter was $259 million or $3.07 per share, an increase of 10% from a year ago and slightly higher than our internal projections.

謝謝你，史蒂芬，大家早安。第一季淨收入為 2.55 億美元，即每股 3.01 美元，而去年同期淨收入為 2.54 億美元，即每股 2.67 美元。本季淨營業收入為 2.59 億美元，即每股 3.07 美元，較去年同期成長 10%，略高於我們的內部預測。

On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity through March 31 is 19% and book value per share is $64.50. Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI, return on equity is 14.1% and book value per share as of March 31 is $87.92, up 11% from a year ago.

根據 GAAP 報告，截至 3 月 31 日的股本回報率為 19%，每股帳面價值為 64.50 美元。不包括累計其他綜合收入（AOCI），股本回報率為 14.1%，截至 3 月 31 日的每股帳面價值為 87.92 美元，比去年同期增長 11%。

In our life insurance operations, premium revenue for the first quarter increased 3% from the year ago quarter to $830 million. Life underwriting margin was $337 million, up 9% from a year ago, driven by premium growth and lower overall policy obligations.

在我們的人壽保險業務中，第一季的保費收入比去年同期成長 3%，達到 8.3 億美元。人壽承保利潤為 3.37 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%，這得益於保費成長和整體保單義務降低。

For the year, we expect life premium revenue to grow around 4%. As a percent of premium, we anticipate life underwriting margin to be between 42% and 44%. In health insurance, premium revenue grew 8% to $370 million, while health underwriting margin was down 10% to $85 million due primarily to higher claim costs in United American resulting from higher utilization.

我們預計今年人壽保險保費收入將成長 4% 左右。作為保費的百分比，我們預計人壽承保利潤率將在 42% 至 44% 之間。在健康保險方面，保費收入增加 8% 至 3.7 億美元，而健康承保利潤率下降 10% 至 8,500 萬美元，主要原因是美國聯合保險公司利用率的提高導致索賠成本上升。

For the year, we expect health premium revenue to grow in the range of 7.5% to 8.5% and anticipate health underwriting margin as a percent of premium to be between 24% and 26%. Administrative expenses were $88 million for the quarter. The increase over the year-ago quarter is primarily due to higher information technology employee and legal costs. For the year, we expect administrative expenses to be approximately 7.4% of premium.

我們預計今年健康保險保費收入將成長 7.5% 至 8.5%，預計健康險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 24% 至 26% 之間。本季的管理費用為 8800 萬美元。與去年同期相比的成長主要是由於資訊科技員工和法律成本的增加。我們預計今年的管理費用約為保費的 7.4%。

I will now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the first quarter marketing operations.

現在我將把電話轉給馬特，請他評論第一季的行銷營運。

Thank you, Frank. At American Income Life, life premiums were up 6% over the year ago quarter to $438 million, and the life underwriting margin was up 5%, up 1% from a year ago. And as a reminder, we had a difficult comparable this quarter as American Income had a 17% increase in life sales in the year ago quarter. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was 11,510, up 3% from a year ago.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。美國收入人壽的壽險保費較去年同期上漲 6%，達到 4.38 億美元，壽險核保利潤率上漲 5%，較去年同期上漲 1%。需要提醒的是，本季我們遇到了一個困難的可比性問題，因為美國收入保險公司的人壽銷售額比去年同期成長了 17%。第一季生產代理商平均數量為11,510家，比去年同期成長3%。

The average agent count declined from the fourth quarter, but I would attribute this to the tremendous agency growth produced over the last couple of years. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2024, average agent count grew 29%, and it is typical for our agencies to see some contraction after periods of significant recruiting success. We are pleased to see productivity has increased as more agents are submitting weekly, and I'm confident we will see continued growth in this agency going forward.

平均代理商數量較第四季度有所下降，但我認為這是由於過去幾年代理商數量的巨大增長。從 2022 年第四季到 2024 年第四季度，平均代理商數量增加了 29%，對於我們的代理商來說，在招聘取得重大成功之後出現一些收縮是很正常的。我們很高興看到，隨著越來越多的代理商每週提交，生產力也隨之提高，我相信，我們將看到該機構未來繼續成長。

Now at Liberty National, here, the Life premiums grew 6% over the year ago quarter to $96 million, and life underwriting margin was up 3% to $32 million -- to $22 million, while net health sales were $7 million, down 5% from the year ago quarter. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was 3,688 and this is up 8% from a year ago.

現在在 Liberty National，人壽保險保費比去年同期增長 6%，達到 9,600 萬美元，人壽承保利潤率增長 3%，達到 3,200 萬美元——達到 2,200 萬美元，而淨健康銷售額為 700 萬美元，比去年同期下降 5%。第一季的平均生產代理商數量為 3,688 家，比去年同期成長了 8%。

I continue to be excited by the agent count rose at Liberty National which is primarily driven by recruiting activity and growth in agency middle management and is a good leading indicator for continued sales growth at this division.

我繼續對 Liberty National 代理商數量的成長感到興奮，這主要得益於招募活動和代理商中階主管的成長，也是該部門持續銷售成長的良好領先指標。

At Family Heritage, health premiums increased 9% over the year ago quarter to $112 million, and health underwriting margin increased 10% to $39 million. Net health sales were up 7% to $27 million, and this is due primarily to an increase in agent count. The average producing agent count for the first quarter was $1,417, up 9% from a year ago.

在 Family Heritage，健康保險費比去年同期成長 9%，達到 1.12 億美元，健康承保利潤成長 10%，達到 3,900 萬美元。淨健康銷售額成長 7% 至 2,700 萬美元，這主要歸因於代理商數量的增加。第一季的平均生產代理商數量為 1,417 美元，比去年同期成長 9%。

And this is three consecutive quarters of strong agent count growth for this division and is driven by this agency's focus on recruiting and middle management development. In our direct-to-consumer division, the life premiums were down 1% over the year ago quarter to $246 million. While life underwriting margin increased 10% to $64 million.

這是該部門代理數量連續三個季度強勁增長，這得益於該機構對招聘和中階管理人員發展的重視。在我們的直接面向消費者部門，人壽保險費比去年同期下降 1% 至 2.46 億美元。人壽承保利潤率成長 10%，達到 6,400 萬美元。

Net life sales were $25 million, down 12% from the year ago quarter. And as we have previously mentioned, the continued decline in sales is primarily due to lower customer inquiries as we have reduced marketing spend on certain campaigns that did not meet our profit objectives as a result of higher distribution costs.

人壽淨銷售額為 2,500 萬美元，較去年同期下降 12%。正如我們之前提到的，銷售額持續下滑主要是由於客戶諮詢量下降，因為我們減少了某些行銷活動的行銷支出，這些活動由於分銷成本上升而未能達到我們的利潤目標。

Our focus in this area is having a positive impact on our overall margin as we will continue to focus on maximizing the underwriting margin dollars on new sales by managing the rising advertising and distribution costs associated with acquiring new business and the value of our direct-to-consumer business is not only those sales directly attributable to this channel, but the significant support that is provided to our agency business through brand impressions and sales leads. And as we mentioned last year, we expect this division to generate over 750,000 leads during 2025, which will be provided to our exclusive agencies.

我們在這一領域的重點對我們的整體利潤率產生了積極影響，因為我們將繼續致力於透過管理與獲取新業務相關的不斷上升的廣告和分銷成本來最大化新銷售的承保利潤率，而我們的直接面向消費者的業務的價值不僅在於直接歸因於該渠道的銷售額，還在於通過品牌印象和銷售線索為我們的代理業務提供的重大支持。正如我們去年提到的那樣，我們預計該部門將在 2025 年產生超過 750,000 條線索，這些線索將提供給我們的獨家代理商。

Now on to United American General Agency. Here, the health premiums increased 13% over the year-ago quarter to $160 million, driven by strong prior year sales growth. Health underwriting margin was $2 million, down approximately $10 million from the year ago quarter due to higher claim costs resulting primarily from higher utilization.

現在談談美國聯合總代理公司。其中，受上年銷售額強勁成長的推動，健康保險費較去年同期成長 13%，達到 1.6 億美元。健康承保利潤為 200 萬美元，比去年同期下降約 1,000 萬美元，因為利用率提高導致索賠成本增加。

For the year, we anticipate mid-single-digit growth in underwriting margin due to strong sales and premium rate actions. And as a reminder, the majority of the premium rate increases for 2025 on individual Medicare supplement business will take effect starting in the second quarter.

由於銷售強勁和保費率行動，我們預計今年承保利潤率將實現中等個位數成長。提醒一下，2025 年個人醫療保險補充業務的保費率大部分上調將從第二季開始生效。

Net health sales were $28 million, and this was up $11 million from the year ago quarter. Now I'd like to discuss projections. And based on recent trends we are seeing in our experience with our business, we expect the average producing agent count trends for the full year 2025 to be as follows: At American Income, mid-single-digit growth; at Liberty National, high single-digit growth; and we are reaffirming the life and health sales guidance we gave on last earnings call.

淨健康銷售額為 2,800 萬美元，比去年同期成長 1,100 萬美元。現在我想討論一下預測。根據我們在業務經驗中看到的最新趨勢，我們預計 2025 年全年平均生產代理數量趨勢如下：美國收入為中等個位數增長；在 Liberty National，實現高個位數增長；我們重申上次收益電話會議上給出的人壽和健康銷售指導。

And as a reminder, net life sales for 2025 are expected to be as follows: American Income, high single-digit growth; Liberty National, low double-digit growth; direct-to-consumer, low to mid-single-digit growth. And for health sales, we expect Liberty National Family Heritage and in United American General Agency to all have low double-digit growth.

提醒一下，2025 年的淨人壽銷售額預計如下：美國人的收入，高個位數增長； Liberty National，低兩位數增長；直接面向消費者，低至中等個位數增長。對於健康產品銷售，我們預計 Liberty National Family Heritage 和 United American General Agency 都將實現低兩位數的成長。

Now before I turn the call back over to Frank for investment operations, I want to note that with respect to the inquiries made by the SEC and the DOJ discussed on previous calls, there have been no material developments to disclose at this time. To the extent there is further information to share on any of these items, we will update you accordingly.

現在，在我將電話轉回給弗蘭克進行投資運營之前，我想指出，關於美國證券交易委員會和司法部在之前的電話會議上討論過的調查，目前還沒有任何重大進展需要披露。如果有關這些項目的更多資訊需要分享，我們將及時向您更新。

I'll now turn the call back to Frank.

我現在將電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Matt. Now turning to the investment operations. Excess investment income, which we define as net investment income less on the required interest was $36 million, down approximately $8 million from the year ago quarter.

謝謝，馬特。現在談談投資營運。超額投資收益（我們將其定義為淨投資收益減去所需利息）為 3,600 萬美元，比去年同期減少約 800 萬美元。

Net investment income was $281 million, down 1% from the year ago quarter as compared to a 1.3% growth in invested assets. Required interest is up a little more than 2% over the year ago quarter, consistent with growth in average policy liabilities.

淨投資收入為 2.81 億美元，較去年同期下降 1%，而投資資產成長 1.3%。與去年同期相比，所需利息上漲了 2% 多一點，與平均保單負債的成長一致。

The growth in average invested assets and average policy liabilities are lower than normal due to the impact of the annuity reinsurance transaction in the fourth quarter, which involved approximately $460 million of annuity reserves being transferred to a third party along with supporting assets.

受第四季度年金再保險交易的影響，平均投資資產和平均保單負債的增長低於正常水平，該交易涉及約 4.6 億美元的年金準備金連同支持資產一起轉移給第三方。

Net investment income was also negatively impacted by lower short-term interest rates. For the full year 2025, we expect net investment income to be fairly flat and required interest to grow around 2.5%, resulting in excess investment income to be down 7% to 15% for the year.

淨投資收益也受到短期利率下降的負面影響。對於 2025 年全年而言，我們預計淨投資收益將基本持平，所需利息將增加 2.5% 左右，導致全年超額投資收益將下降 7% 至 15%。

With regard to investment yield, in the first quarter, we invested $245 million in investment-grade fixed maturities primarily in the industrial and financial sectors. These investments were at an average yield of 6.4% at an average rating of A- and an average life of 43 years. We also invested approximately $51 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships with net light characteristics and an average expected cash return of approximately 8.5%.

就投資殖利率而言，第一季度，我們投資了 2.45 億美元的投資等級固定期限債券，主要投資於工業和金融領域。這些投資的平均收益率為 6.4%，平均評級為 A-，平均期限為 43 年。我們還投資了約 5,100 萬美元於商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業，其淨資產特徵為輕型，平均預期現金回報率約為 8.5%。

None of our direct investments in commercial mortgage loans involved office properties. These non-fixed maturity investments are expected to produce an additional cash yield over our fixed maturity investments while still being in line with our conservative investment philosophy.

我們對商業抵押貸款的直接投資均不涉及辦公大樓。這些非固定期限投資預計將比我們的固定期限投資產生額外的現金收益，同時仍符合我們保守的投資理念。

For the entire fixed maturity portfolio, the first quarter yield was 5.25%, up 1 basis point from the first quarter of 2024. As of March 31, the portfolio yield was 5.26%. Including the investment income from our commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships, the first quarter earned yield was 5.4%. Now regarding the investment portfolio. Invested assets are $21.4 billion, including $19 billion of fixed maturities at amortized cost.

就整個固定期限投資組合而言，第一季殖利率為 5.25%，較 2024 年第一季上升 1 個基點。截至3月31日，該投資組合報酬率為5.26%。如果算上我們商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業的投資收益，第一季的收益率為 5.4%。現在談談投資組合。投資資產為 214 億美元，其中包括 190 億美元以攤銷成本計算的固定到期債券。

Of the fixed maturities, $18.5 billion are investment grade with an average rating of A-. Overall, the total fixed maturity portfolio is rated A- same as a year ago. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio had a net unrealized loss position of approximately $1.5 billion due to the current market rates being higher than the book yield on our holdings.

在固定期限債券中，有 185 億美元為投資等級，平均評級為 A-。整體而言，固定期限投資組合的評級為 A-，與一年前相同。由於目前市場利率高於我們持有的資產的帳面收益率，我們的固定期限投資組合淨未實現虧損約 15 億美元。

As we have historically noted, we are not concerned by the unrealized loss position as it is mostly interest rate driven and currently relates entirely to bonds with maturities that extend beyond 10 years. We have the intent and more importantly, the ability to hold our investments to maturity.

正如我們過去所指出的，我們並不擔心未實現損失狀況，因為它主要是由利率驅動的，並且目前完全與期限超過 10 年的債券有關。我們有意願，更重要的是，我們有能力持有我們的投資直到到期。

Bonds rated BBB comprise 45% of the fixed maturity portfolio compared to 47% from the year ago quarter. This percentage is at its lowest level since 2007, as we have discussed on prior calls, we believe the BBB securities we acquire generally provide the best risk-adjusted, capital-adjusted returns due in part to our ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations in interest rates or equity markets.

BBB 級債券佔固定期限投資組合的 45%，去年同期為 47%。這一比例處於 2007 年以來的最低水平，正如我們在先前的電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們認為，我們收購的 BBB 證券通常提供最佳的風險調整後、資本調整後的回報，部分原因是我們有能力持有證券至到期，而不受利率或股票市場波動的影響。

While the percentage of our invested assets comprised of pleasant might be a little higher than some of our peers, remember that we have little or no exposure to other higher risk assets such as derivatives, equities, residential mortgages, CLOs and other asset-backed securities.

雖然我們投資的資產中，由愉快組成的比例可能比我們的一些同行略高，但請記住，我們很少或根本沒有接觸其他高風險資產，如衍生性商品、股票、住宅抵押貸款、CLO 和其他資產證券。

Below investment grade bonds remain at historical lows at $506 million compared to $542 million a year ago. The percentage of below investment-grade bonds to total fixed maturities is just 2.7%. Our below investment-grade bonds as a percent of equity, excluding AOCI, are at their lowest level in over 30 years. While there are clearly uncertainties as to where the US economy is headed in the upcoming months. We are well positioned to withstand a significant economic downturn.

低於投資等級債券仍處於歷史低位，為 5.06 億美元，而一年前為 5.42 億美元。低於投資等級的債券佔固定期限債券總額的比例僅 2.7%。我們的低於投資等級的債券佔股權的百分比（不包括 AOCI）處於 30 多年來的最低水準。儘管未來幾個月美國經濟的走向顯然存在不確定性。我們已做好充分準備來抵禦嚴重的經濟衰退。

Due to the long duration of our fixed policy liabilities, we invest in long-dated assets. As such, a critical and foundational art of our investment philosophy is to invest in entities that can survive through multiple economic cycles.

由於我們的固定保單負債期間較長，因此我們投資於長期資產。因此，我們的投資理念的一個關鍵和基礎藝術是投資能夠在多個經濟週期中生存下來的實體。

In addition, we have very strong underwriting profits and long-dated liabilities. So we will not be forced to sell any of our bonds in order to pay claims. With respect to our anticipated investment acquisitions for the year, at the midpoint of our full year guidance, we assume investment of approximately $600 million to $700 million in fixed maturities at an average yield of 6% to 6.2% and approximately $300 million to $500 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnership investments with debt-like characteristics at an average expected cash return of 7% to 9%.

此外，我們的承保利潤和長期負債非常強勁。因此，我們不會被迫出售任何債券來支付索賠。關於我們今年預期的投資收購，在全年指引的中點，我們假設投資約 6 億至 7 億美元於固定期限債券，平均收益率為 6% 至 6.2%，以及投資約 3 億至 5 億美元於商業抵押貸款和具有債務特徵的有限合夥投資，平均預期現金回報率為 7% 至 9%。

Now I will turn the call over to Tom for his comments on capital and liquidity.

現在我將把電話轉給湯姆，請他評論一下資本和流動性。

I'll spend a few more minutes discussing our available liquidity, share repurchase program and capital position. The parent began the year and ended the quarter with liquid assets of approximately $90 million. We anticipate concluding the year with liquid assets at the higher end of our targeted range of $50 million to $60 million.

我將花幾分鐘討論我們的可用流動性、股票回購計劃和資本狀況。母公司年初至本季末的流動資產約為 9,000 萬美元。我們預計今年年底的流動資產將達到我們目標範圍 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的高端。

During the first quarter, the company repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares of below life common stock for a total cost of approximately $177 million at an average share price of $121.70, thus, including shareholder dividend payments of $20 million. For the quarter, the company returned approximately $197 million to shareholders during the first quarter of 2025.

第一季度，該公司以平均每股 121.70 美元的價格回購了約 150 萬股低於有效期限的普通股，總成本約為 1.77 億美元，其中包括 2,000 萬美元的股東股息。2025 年第一季度，該公司向股東返還了約 1.97 億美元。

The parent's liquid asset at the end of the quarter, along with the excess cash flows expected to be generated over the last three quarters of the year, will provide the parent with $375 million to $725 million to meet the -- sorry, $675 million to $725 million to meet the needs of the parent or that can be returned to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchases.

母公司在本季末的流動資產，加上預計在今年最後三個季度產生的超額現金流，將為母公司提供 3.75 億至 7.25 億美元的資金來滿足——抱歉，是 6.75 億至 7.25 億美元的資金來滿足母公司的需求，或者可以以股息或股票回購的形式返還給股東。

In April, we used approximately $47 million to repurchase Globe Life common stock. And for the remainder of 2025, we anticipate using approximately $65 million for shareholder dividends. The total amount of excess cash flows in 2025 is higher than in 2024 primarily because of higher statutory earnings in 2024 than in 2023 and due to the inclusion of an extraordinary dividend of approximately $190 million approved late in 2024.

4 月份，我們花費約 4,700 萬美元回購了環球人壽普通股。在 2025 年剩餘時間裡，我們預計將使用約 6,500 萬美元作為股東分紅。2025 年的超額現金流總額高於 2024 年，主要是因為 2024 年的法定收益高於 2023 年，並且包含了 2024 年底批准的約 1.9 億美元的特別股息。

The parent company's excess cash flow, as we define it, primarily results from the dividends received by the parent permits subsidiaries, less the interest paid on debt and is available to return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and through share repurchases.

我們所定義的母公司的超額現金流主要來自於母公司允許子公司收到的股息，減去支付的債務利息，然後以股息和股票回購的形式返還給股東。

We will continue to use our cash as efficiently as possible. We still believe that share repurchases provide the best return renewable to our shareholders over other available alternatives. Thus, we anticipate share repurchases will continue to be the primary use of the parent's excess cash flows after the payment of shareholder dividends. However, we also intend to reduce outstanding commercial paper balances over the course of the year to be more in line with historical levels.

我們將繼續盡可能有效率地使用現金。我們仍然相信，與其他可用替代方案相比，股票回購可以為我們的股東帶來最佳的再生回報。因此，我們預期股票回購將繼續成為母公司在支付股東股利後超額現金流的主要用途。不過，我們也打算在年內減少未償還商業票據餘額，使其更符合歷史水準。

It should be noted that the cash received by the parent company from our insurance operations is after our subsidiaries have made substantial investments during the year to new -- to issue new insurance policies implement new technologies and enhance operational capabilities and modernize existing information technology as well as to acquire new long-duration assets to fund their future cash needs.

值得注意的是，母公司從我們的保險業務中獲得的現金是在我們的子公司在年內對新業務進行了大量投資之後獲得的——發行新的保險單，實施新技術，增強運營能力，現代化現有的信息技術，以及收購新的長期資產以滿足其未來的現金需求。

The remaining amount is sufficient to support our targeted capital levels at our insurance operations and maintain the share repurchase program in 2025. In our earnings guidance, we anticipate between $600 million to $650 million of share repurchases.

剩餘金額足以支持我們保險業務的目標資本水準並維持 2025 年的股票回購計畫。在我們的獲利預測中，我們預計股票回購金額在 6 億至 6.5 億美元之間。

Our goal is to maintain capital at levels necessary to support our current ratings. Globe Life targets a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. As of year-end 2024, our consolidated RBC ratio was 316%, which provides approximately $100 million of capital in excess of that needed to meet our minimum target capital of 300%.

我們的目標是將資本維持在支持當前評級所需的水平。環球人壽的目標是將合併後的公司行動水準 RBC 比率控制在 300% 至 320% 之間。截至 2024 年底，我們的合併 RBC 比率為 316%，比達到 300% 的最低目標資本所需資本超出約 1 億美元。

As we do every quarter, we have performed stress tests in our investment portfolio under multiple economic scenarios, anticipating various levels of downgrades and defaults. If the estimated losses under our stress -- stress tests were to occur before year-end, we have concluded that we have sufficient capital to man our target RBC ratios, given the current excess capital at our subsidiaries and capital resources of the parent, while maintaining our share repurchases as planned. For 2025, we intend to maintain our consolidated RBC within the targeted range of 300% to 320%.

正如我們每季所做的那樣，我們在多種經濟情境下對我們的投資組合進行了壓力測試，預測了不同程度的降級和違約。如果我們的壓力測試所估計的損失在年底之前發生，我們得出的結論是，考慮到我們子公司目前的過剩資本和母公司的資本資源，我們有足夠的資本來維持我們的目標 RBC 比率，同時按計劃維持我們的股票回購。到 2025 年，我們打算將合併後的 RBC 維持在 300% 至 320% 的目標範圍內。

In addition, as mentioned on previous calls, we continue to evaluate the opportunity to manage capital under an economic framework available in Bermuda. We expect to conclude this work in 2025 and intend to provide an update on the strategic decisions made on the next call.

此外，正如先前的電話會議中所提到的，我們將繼續評估在百慕達現有的經濟框架下管理資本的機會。我們預計將於 2025 年完成這項工作，並打算在下次會議上提供有關所做戰略決策的最新資訊。

Now with regards to policy obligations for the current quarter. As we discussed in prior calls, we have included within the supplemental financial information available on our website and exhibit that details the remeasurement gain or loss by distribution channel.

現在討論本季的政策義務。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們已將補充財務資訊納入我們的網站並展示，其中詳細說明了按分銷管道劃分的重估收益或損失。

For the quarter, life remeasurement gain was $8.5 million. This was favorable to management's estimates and resulted in lower life policy obligations than anticipated. The health remeasurement gain was about $400,000.

本季度，壽命重估收益為 850 萬美元。這對管理層的估計有利，並導致人壽保險義務低於預期。健康重估收益約40萬美元。

In other life distribution, during the quarter, we completed the recapture of a reinsurance agreement that involved a small block of business associated with our military life business. This resulted in a onetime favorable impact to life margins of approximately $14 million.

在其他壽險分銷方面，本季度，我們完成了一項再保險協議的重新奪回，該協議涉及與我們的軍事壽險業務相關的一小部分業務。這對人壽利潤率產生了約 1,400 萬美元的一次性有利影響。

There have been no changes to our long-term assumptions this quarter as we will update life and health assumptions in the third quarter of 2025. Due to the continued favorable mortality we are experiencing, we anticipate a favorable margin impact in the third quarter for life assumption updates as recent mortality and lapse experience are incorporated into these new assumptions.

本季我們的長期假設沒有變化，因為我們將在 2025 年第三季更新人壽和健康假設。由於我們經歷的持續有利的死亡率，我們預計第三季壽命假設更新將對利潤率產生有利影響，因為最近的死亡率和失效經驗被納入這些新的假設中。

At this time, our guidance anticipates a remeasurement gain in the third quarter related to life assumption updates in the range of $60 million to $100 million similar to third quarter's life remeasurement gain last year.

目前，我們的指引預計第三季與壽命假設更新相關的重估收益將在 6,000 萬美元至 1 億美元之間，與去年第三季的壽命重估收益相似。

As Frank mentioned, we anticipated life margins as a percent of premium to be in the range of 42% to 44% for the full year. However, for the first half of the year, we expect life margins as a percent of premium to be in the range of 40% to 41% and 43% to 46% in the second half of the year, given the anticipated favorable impact from third quarter life assumption updates.

正如弗蘭克所提到的，我們預計全年壽險利潤率（佔保費的百分比）將在 42% 至 44% 之間。然而，考慮到第三季壽險假設更新預期帶來的有利影響，我們預計上半年壽險利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 40% 至 41% 之間，下半年將在 43% 至 46% 之間。

For the Health segment, we anticipate health obligations will continue to be elevated given recent claim trends outpacing premium rate increases on individual and group Medicare supplement business. This appears to be largely impacted by an increase in a select set of procedures taking place in doctors' offices.

對於健康領域，我們預計健康義務將繼續增加，因為最近的索賠趨勢超過了個人和團體醫療保險補充業務的保費率成長。這似乎在很大程度上受到醫生辦公室內進行的一系列特定程序增加的影響。

In addition, although a portion of the premium rate increases for '25 were effective late in the first quarter, the majority are effective in April, and we will reflect -- in addition, we will reflect recent claim trends in our 2025 premium rate filings, which will be effective in 2026.

此外，雖然 2025 年保費率上漲的部分內容在第一季末生效，但大部分內容在 4 月生效，我們將反映 - 此外，我們還將在 2025 年保費率申報中反映最近的索賠趨勢，該申報將於 2026 年生效。

So finally, with respect to earnings guidance in 2025. For the full year 2025, we reaffirm our previous guidance and estimated net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $13.45 to $14.05, representing 11% growth at the midpoint of our range. Those are my comments. I will now turn the call back to Matt.

最後，關於 2025 年的獲利預測。對於 2025 年全年，我們重申先前的指引，預計每股攤薄淨營業收益將在 13.45 美元至 14.05 美元之間，按我們預期範圍的中點計算，增長 11%。以上就是我的評論。我現在將電話轉回給馬特。

Thanks, Tom. Those are our comments, and we will now open up the call for questions.

謝謝，湯姆。以上就是我們的評論，現在我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jack Matton, BMO Capital Markets.

傑克·馬頓 (Jack Matton)，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, good morning. Just a question for Al for health margins. How much of a lag usually between kind of the rate actions you've taken and when do you usually see the benefit flow into your results? I think you mentioned some of the rate increases took effect on April 1. So should we see significant step up in March starting in the second quarter? Or is there a bit of a timing impact that we should be thinking about?

嗨，早安。我只是想問一下 Al 關於健康邊際的問題。您採取的利率行動與您通常何時看到收益流入結果之間通常存在多大的延遲？我認為您提到部分利率上調已於 4 月 1 日生效。那麼，從第二季開始，我們是否應該看到三月出現顯著的成長？或者我們應該考慮一些時間上的影響？

Yes. No, almost all the rate increases will be effective or in place in the beginning of the second quarter. So we'll see the full benefit of those rate increases. We'd expect margins for UAGA to be in the 5% to 7% range. So about 6% overall for the year.

是的。不，幾乎所有的加息措施都將在第二季初生效或到位。因此我們將看到利率上調帶來的全部好處。我們預計 UAGA 的利潤率將在 5% 至 7% 之間。因此全年總體約為 6%。

Got it. Okay. And then, I mean, in the health business, you recorded a smaller measurement gain even though, I guess, reported margins for the segment were a little bit weaker year-over-year basis. So I'm just curious what was driving like an outcome in the quarter?

知道了。好的。然後，我的意思是，在健康業務中，儘管我猜該部門的報告利潤率同比略有下降，但您記錄的測量收益較小。所以我只是好奇是什麼推動了本季的結果？

There's just -- in the current accounting framework under LDTI, there is just a little bit of volatility that's related to the way that operates for Medicare supplement business where rate increases are an aggregate rate increase for the entire block. And so there's some cohorts of business where that rate increase is not enough and there's some cohorts of business where that rate increase is more than sufficient. So it creates a little bit of volatility on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

在 LDTI 下的當前會計框架中，存在一點波動，這與醫療保險補充業務的運作方式有關，其中費率上漲是整個區塊的總費率上漲。因此，對於某些業務群體來說，利率上調幅度不夠，而對於某些業務群體來說，利率上調幅度則綽綽有餘。因此，這會在季度間產生一些波動。

Yes. I would just add that if you look at United American, they had a slight negative remeasurement gain, whereas with respect to Liberty, American Come and Family Heritage, they all had small remeasurement gains and the net of those was about the $400 million or $400 -- yes.

是的。我只想補充一點，如果你看看聯合美國保險公司，你會發現他們的重估收益略有負值，而對於 Liberty、American Come 和 Family Heritage 保險公司來說，他們的重估收益都很小，淨收益約為 4 億美元或 4 億美元——是的。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Hi. I had a question first on your EPS guidance for the year. And you grew sort of in line with your guidance this quarter, but the third quarter is obviously very tough comps. So just wondering what gives you the confidence that you can achieve maybe the middle end of the range? Or should we assume, given the results this quarter that you're much more comfortable with the lower end, but decided not to change the range as a result of that?

你好。我首先想問您對今年每股盈餘的預測。本季的成長基本上符合你的預期，但第三季的業績顯然非常艱難。所以我只是想知道是什麼讓您有信心可以達到這個範圍的中間值？或者我們應該假設，根據本季的結果，您對低端結果更滿意，但決定不因此改變範圍？

Jimmy, we're very comfortable with the range. I think one of the things we've been wanting to see is actually the continued trends of favorable mortality, which would lead to a life mortality assumption update. And we've seen really good mortality results in the third quarter and the fourth quarter and now in the first quarter, which gives us a bit more confidence in -- and as we reflect that experience in our assumption updates, we'll see some favorable remeasurement gains due to those updates.

吉米，我們對這個範圍非常滿意。我認為我們一直希望看到的事情之一實際上是死亡率持續保持良好的趨勢，這將導致生命死亡率假設的更新。我們在第三季、第四季和第一季都看到了非常好的死亡率結果，這給了我們更多的信心——當我們在假設更新中反映這些經驗時，我們將看到由於這些更新而產生的一些有利的重估收益。

Yes. Then I would just say just to that, Jimmy, that I mean we are reflecting some of the negative utilization trends that we're seeing from the UAGA side. So we are expecting that to be a little lower over the course of the year, and you kind of see the range of underwriting margin percentage coming down on that a little bit. And that's being offset the negatives of that are being offset with some of the positive views that we have with respect to the underwriting margins. Maybe I'll let Matt talk just a little bit about, I think, some of the views on sales and why there's some confidence there.

是的。那麼我只想說，吉米，我的意思是我們反映了從 UAGA 方面看到的一些負面利用趨勢。因此，我們預計今年的保費水準會略低一些，承保保證金百分比的範圍也會略有下降。這抵消了我們對承保利潤率的一些正面看法所帶來的負面影響。也許我會讓馬特稍微談談我對銷售的一些看法以及為什麼會有信心。

Sure. And Jimmy, just to your point, I was going to also mention that the third quarter, the remeasurement gain would be probably in the range of magnitude of what we had last year. So that also kind of gives us some confidence as Tom had mentioned our positive mortality experience over the last three quarters that were -- so that's really why we're reaffirming our guidance back to the midpoint, not at the lower end of the range. And on the sales side, we're seeing good positive trends there. We normally don't discuss kind of current -- we're a month through the second quarter here.

當然。吉米，正如你所說，我還想提一下，第三季的重估收益可能與去年同期的收益處於同一幅度範圍內。因此，這也給了我們一些信心，正如湯姆所提到的，我們在過去三個季度的死亡率經歷是積極的——這就是為什麼我們重申我們的指導回到中點，而不是範圍的下限。在銷售方面，我們看到了良好的正面趨勢。我們通常不會討論當前的情況——我們已經度過了第二季的一個月。

And so we've got -- what we're seeing is very strong recruiting and agent count growth as well as sales are in line with our expectations. And so reaffirming our sales guidance for the year based on what we saw in Q1 with our expectations and then what we're seeing here early through the month of April in Q2. But our average agent count just in the month of April is up 3% over where we were ending March, and it's also higher than where we ended at the end of last year.

因此，我們看到招募和代理商數量成長非常強勁，而且銷售額也符合我們的預期。因此，根據我們在第一季看到的情況和預期，以及在第二季 4 月初看到的情況，我們重申今年的銷售指引。但光是 4 月份，我們的平均代理商數量就比 3 月底增加了 3%，也高於去年年底的水準。

So not uncommon for us to see a little bit of seasonality at the beginning of the year. And that's what we saw a little bit of weakness, frankly, in January and then that ramped up toward the latter half of Q1, and that's continuing -- that trend is continuing on here through the month of April.

因此，我們在年初看到一點季節性現象並不罕見。坦白說，我們在一月份看到了一些疲軟跡象，然後這種跡像在第一季後半段加劇，而這種趨勢一直持續到四月份。

Yes. And Jimmy, one last thing I'll add on to that. I think with some of the better trends that we anticipate for sales for the remainder of the year, some of the -- I may call it, the drag in life premium growth around 3% here for the first quarter, a little lower than we would like to see. But so we see that really the effects of some of the new sales. And as I -- we think we anticipated the last is at least stabilizing here over the course of the year.

是的。吉米，我還要補充最後一件事。我認為，儘管我們預計今年剩餘時間的銷售趨勢會有所好轉，但第一季人壽保險保費成長仍將受到拖累，約為 3%，略低於我們希望看到的水平。但我們確實看到了一些新銷售的影響。正如我所料，我們認為最終情況至少會在今年趨於穩定。

And so as we kind of get to the latter half of the year, still able to -- seeing that premium growth pick up a little bit in the second half of the year being more in that 4.5% to 5% range and getting that premium life premium growth for the full year to be closer to that 4%.

因此，當我們進入下半年時，我們仍然能夠看到，下半年保費成長率略有回升，介於 4.5% 至 5% 之間，全年壽險保費成長率將更接近 4%。

Okay. And then on your life business, if we look at the non-deferrable commissions and policy acquisition spend, for the Life division. It's been running up over the past in 1Q than it's been in the previous several quarters. So wondering how much of that is economic in terms of you having to spend more money to originate sales versus maybe the result of LDTI or accounting-related items.

好的。然後，關於您的人壽業務，如果我們看一下人壽部門的不可延期佣金和保單獲取支出。與前幾季相比，第一季的增幅有所上升。所以想知道其中有多少是經濟的，因為您必須花費更多的錢來發起銷售，而不是 LDTI 或會計相關項目的結果。

A lot of that, Jimmy, is really just due to some of the higher investments that we've been making in information technology. And as those systems come on, the depreciation from those as well as the software from the service and what we're paying for that and the data and analytics is being allocated to the investor to the acquisition side. So that's deferrable. So we're just seeing a little bit of that tick up just because of some of that higher largely because of some of the higher technology spend.

吉米，這在很大程度上實際上只是因為我們在資訊科技領域投入了更多資金。隨著這些系統的啟動，這些系統的折舊以及服務軟體、我們為此支付的費用、數據和分析費用都被分配給了收購方的投資者。所以這是可以推遲的。因此，我們看到這一數字略有上升，這主要是因為技術支出有所增加。

Okay. And just the last one on your health margin. It seems like for the (inaudible) product for you guys and many of the other companies, usage has gone up, so you guys have been raising prices, but it's sort of a constant catch-up where usage continues and claims continue to go up, and you're having to catch up to that.

好的。這只是您健康邊緣的最後一個。對於你們和其他許多公司的產品來說，（聽不清）使用量似乎上升了，所以你們一直在提高價格，但這是一種不斷追趕的過程，使用量在持續增加，索賠額也在持續增加，你們必須跟上這一步伐。

Do you feel that with the higher prices earning in, in 2Q and beyond, did margins are going to be at normal levels? Or is it more you're probably going to need to raise prices more as you get into 2026 season given just claims usage and inflation?

您是否認為，隨著第二季及以後價格收益的提高，利潤率是否會恢復到正常水平？或者，考慮到索賠使用情況和通貨膨脹，您可能需要在進入 2026 年時進一步提高價格嗎？

I think together we need to see exactly what happens. But I think one of the things that gives me confidence is, I think this is a very manageable issue when we see short-term increases in health trends that we can, in fact, manage that through rate increases. It may take us a year or two to effectively get those caught up. So it may be a little bit longer than a year. But we've been very successful in the past, getting those rate increases approved by regulators.

我認為我們需要一起看看究竟會發生什麼。但我認為讓我有信心的一件事是，我認為這是一個非常容易控制的問題，當我們看到健康趨勢的短期成長時，我們實際上可以透過提高利率來控制這個問題。我們可能需要一兩年的時間才能有效地解決這些問題。所以可能比一年長一點。但我們過去非常成功，獲得了監管機構的批准。

And so I'd expect improvement in 2026 and if we continue to see trends that might be a little -- we always have a little bit of a timing delay. So we may actually see a little bit of a delay in actually getting back to kind of normal margins. But I think the other thing to think about is this is largely around Medicare Supplement business, right?

因此我預計 2026 年會有所改善，如果我們繼續看到這種趨勢，可能會有一點——我們總是會有一點時間延遲。因此，我們實際上可能會看到恢復正常利潤率的過程稍微延遲。但我認為需要考慮的另一件事是，這主要與醫療保險補充業務有關，對嗎？

And so for our other health lines, we're not seeing the same level of claim costs. And Medicare supplement really from a total underwriting margin perspective is really in that 3% to 4% range of total underwriting margin. So it's a fairly small set of just the core underwriting margins that we see from the business.

因此，對於我們的其他健康險種，我們沒有看到相同程度的索賠成本。從總承保利潤率的角度來看，醫療保險補充保險實際上佔總承保利潤率的 3% 到 4% 之間。因此，我們從業務中看到的只是相當小的核心承保利潤率一部分。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I guess, is on some of the capital stuff. So you guys -- the Q1 buyback, right, was I guess, a bit elevated relative to what the annual guide would imply on a quarterly basis. But I know you guys also said right there's some going to pay down some commercial paper, so how do we think about, I guess, capital return over the back three quarters? Are you thinking it's just even relative to hitting the guide? Or would you potentially, depending upon your stock price, look to front run some of the buyback to earlier Q2, Q3, et cetera?

你好，謝謝。早安.我想我的第一個問題是關於一些資本方面的事情。所以你們——對吧，我猜，第一季的回購量相對於年度指南所暗示的季度回購量來說有點高。但我知道你們也說過，有些人會償還一些商業票據，那麼我們如何看待後三個季度的資本回報？您是否認為這僅與擊中指南有關？或者，根據您的股票價格，您是否有可能考慮提前進行第二季、第三季等早期的回購？

Generally, we think normally ratable throughout the year, but we will take advantage of kind of market opportunities. So I could see us buying a little bit more in the first half of the year relative to the second half of the year.

總體而言，我們認為全年通常都可以評級，但我們會利用各種市場機會。因此，我認為我們上半年的購買量會比下半年多一點。

Thanks. And then my follow-up, you guys were talking about, I guess, Bermuda, which you're also talking about a bit last quarter. Just any updates there relative to what's going on this quarter? And I know you guys have been talking about that more being something that's beneficial in '26 and into 2027?

謝謝。然後我的後續問題是，我想你們正在談論百慕達，你們上個季度也談到了這一點。有關於本季度發生的事情的任何更新嗎？我知道你們一直在談論這是否會對 2026 年和 2027 年帶來更多好處？

Yes, we're still working through it. And so we will plan to update you on the next call.

是的，我們仍在努力。因此我們計劃在下次通話時向您通報最新情況。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券的安德魯‧克里格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Hi, good morning. We're actually good afternoon. So going back to the health margins, you had been guiding to -- you're guiding now to '24 to '26 versus '25 to '27. And I'm thinking you kind of gave a time frame where you start to see improvement in '26, but you really don't get to where you need to be or would like to normally be until '27, if I understand it correctly.

嗨，早安。我們下午好。因此，回到您之前指導的健康邊際——您現在指導的是 24 年至 26 年，而不是 25 年至 27 年。而且我認為您給出了一個時間框架，您會在 26 年開始看到改善，但如果我理解正確的話，您實際上要到 27 年才能達到您需要達到的水平或通常希望達到的水平。

Could you give us a sense of what historically have been normal margins and maybe work through the timeline, when you're actually going to get the price increases, it's going to be gradual. Maybe just walk through the timeline a little more granularly where a normal historic ratio has been?

您能否告訴我們歷史上正常的利潤率是多少，並根據時間表，當您真正實現價格上漲時，這將是一個漸進的過程。也許只需更詳細地回顧一下時間線，就能了解正常的歷史比率是多少？

Yes, Andrew, I'll start on that and then let Tom or Matt add. But you do look at kind of the post LDTI, the margins on that business on the UAGA side have been a little bit on the side that 10% to 11%. And I think from an overall health somewhere more in the upper 20s overall as a margin percent of premium income.

是的，安德魯，我先從那裡開始，然後讓湯姆或馬特補充。但你確實看到 LDTI 之後，UAGA 方面的業務利潤率一直在 10% 到 11% 之間。我認為從整體健康狀況來看，保費收入的利潤率總體上應該在 20% 以上。

I think with respect to UAGA, and they're in the mid up specifically, we would be looking into taking -- getting the cost and the higher utilization that we're seeing here in the last couple of quarters and at least here early in '25 and working those into our third quarter premium rate adjustments that we'd be filing that would be effective in 2026.

我認為就 UAGA 而言，他們具體處於中高端，我們會考慮——獲取我們在過去幾個季度以及至少在 25 年初看到的成本和更高的利用率，並將其計入我們將提交的第三季度保費調整中，該調整將於 2026 年生效。

Depending upon where the utilization trends kind of take how those emerge over the remainder of the year will really kind of inform whether or not. Can we really capture all of the increase that we need in the third quarter make filings or not? Or is there some of that, that will be -- that we're chasing a little bit into 2027 as well.

這取決於利用趨勢在剩餘時間內如何呈現，這將真正決定是否如此。我們真的能透過申報獲得第三季所需的全部成長嗎？或者其中有一些，那將是——我們也在追逐到 2027 年的一點。

We do anticipate getting the full margins for that UAGA to be closer to that 5% to 7% range. So second half of the year being a little bit north of that because the -- at least the utilization that we're seeing here in the first quarter clearly outran the impacts of the premium increases that we had put into place. We do think with the premium, the majority of our premium increase is coming into play here in the second quarter, that will help over the course of over the remainder of the year.

我們確實預計 UAGA 的全部利潤率將接近 5% 到 7% 的範圍。因此，下半年的情況會略有好轉，因為至少我們在第一季看到的利用率明顯超過了我們實施的保費上漲的影響。我們確實認為，就保費而言，大部分保費成長將在第二季度發揮作用，這將有助於今年剩餘時間的保費成長。

That was very helpful. Maybe shifting over to the life insurance premium. You've been guiding to that, and you mentioned it on this call, you've been guiding to 4.5%, 5%, and now you're looking at 4% through the year. Could you give a little more color on lapsation, why you're maybe seeing a little higher, more elevated lapsation and how to think about that going forward?

這非常有幫助。也許會轉向人壽保險費。您一直在朝著這個方向發展，您在這次電話會議上也提到了這一點，您一直將增長率預期定為 4.5%、5%，而現在您預計全年增長率將達到 4%。您能否更詳細地介紹一下失效情況，為什麼您可能會看到失效率更高、更嚴重的情況，以及如何看待這種情況？

I think from a lapse perspective, at American Income, we have seen a little bit higher lapses in the first year. And a question for us is whether that fluctuations or trend and as virtual sales kind of just driving a more normal higher lapse level in the first year. But I would say that the renewal rates for AIL have been fairly consistent over the past four quarters.

我認為，從失誤率的角度來看，在美國收入保險公司，我們在第一年就看到了略高的失誤率。我們面臨的問題是，這種波動或趨勢以及虛擬銷售是否會在第一年推動更正常的更高流失水平。但我想說的是，AIL 的續約率在過去四個季度一直相當穩定。

So those seem to have stabilized. I think DTC lapse rates are consistent with prior quarters and maybe slightly improved in the first year, which is a good sign, and renewal lapse rates are fairly consistent with historical levels as well.

所以這些似乎已經穩定下來了。我認為 DTC 失效率與前幾季一致，第一年可能略有改善，這是一個好兆頭，續約失效率也與歷史水準相當一致。

So those seem to be all going very well. I think it's kind of a testament to the resiliency of our customers even in times of economic stress, our lapse rates moved just a little bit plus or minus depending upon what the economic environment is. And then for Liberty, that's first -- overall, that has been relatively stable as well. So I think we're feeling okay about lapses, we'll certainly keep an eye on it.

一切似乎都進展順利。我認為這在某種程度上證明了我們的客戶即使在經濟壓力時期也具有韌性，我們的失效率只是根據經濟環境略有增加或減少。對 Liberty 來說，首先 — — 整體而言，這也是相對穩定的。所以我認為我們對失誤感到滿意，我們一定會密切注意。

And then I do think that sales that emerge over the course of the second half of the year will actually add to premium growth above first quarter sales growth. And so that's kind of where we're looking at around 4% premium growth -- life premium growth for the year.

然後我確實認為，今年下半年出現的銷售實際上將推動保費成長，超過第一季的銷售成長。因此，我們預計今年人壽保險保費成長率約為 4%。

Yes. Andrew, the one thing I'll add to that is that we did start seeing some of the lapse especially in the first year at AIL and maybe a little bit on DTC tick up towards the latter half. So obviously, that just kind of look at it period-over-period as those increases in lapse rates year-over-year take effect that has a drag on premium growth on the same year-over-year period.

是的。安德魯，我要補充的一點是，我們確實開始看到一些失誤，特別是在 AIL 的第一年，也許在後半年 DTC 出現了一些失誤。因此，顯然，這只是一個週期性變化的觀察，因為失效率的逐年增加會對同一時期的保費增長產生拖累。

As we kind of look out over the latter half of the year, we kind of see some of this stabilizing even though they're maybe running a little bit higher than long-term averages, just because of some of the economic uncertainty.

展望下半年，我們可以看到，儘管由於一些經濟不確定性，其增速可能略高於長期平均水平，但情況正在趨於穩定。

But when we look back at other periods of some economic stress where the rates that we're seeing even at -- especially at American Income on their first year are not out of line at all but as we think -- look at the comparable then in the latter half of the year, we see that as really being stabilizing. And so that will help with the period-over-period premium growth as well.

但是，當我們回顧其他經濟壓力時期時，我們看到的利率甚至——尤其是在美國收入第一年，根本沒有超出正常水平，但正如我們所想的——看看下半年的可比情況，我們看到這確實正在穩定下來。這也有助於保費的逐期成長。

Yes. Maybe just one other comment is we don't see dramatic changes in lapse rates even in periods of economic stress. They're relatively narrow changes. And kind of as we've looked at this for AIL and DTC under where there's been more economic stress, the lapse rates of renewal years have moved less than 1% to a little bit over 1% depending upon the policy duration. So again, I think really a testament of the resiliency of our in-force book business.

是的。也許還有一條評論是，即使在經濟壓力時期，我們也沒有看到遞減率發生劇烈變化。這些變化相對較小。正如我們在 AIL 和 DTC 所觀察到的，在經濟壓力較大的情況下，續保年度的失效率會根據保單期限的變化而變化，從不到 1% 到略高於 1%。因此，我認為這確實證明了我們現有圖書業務的彈性。

And then just -- and that was very helpful. One last quick one. I saw a line item for legal proceedings, $4.8 million. Maybe this is not an answerable question, but would that be an indication that maybe you're coming towards the tail end of the back and forth with the regulators? Is this an indication that we can be more of these type expenses? I don't know. I was just kind of throwing it out there to see if there's some kind of read through on that number, which I hadn't seen before.

然後就——這非常有幫助。最後再簡單說一下。我看到法律訴訟項目金額為 480 萬美元。也許這不是一個可以回答的問題，但這是否表明您可能正處於與監管機構反覆爭論的尾聲？這是否表示我們可以增加此類開支？我不知道。我只是想把它扔到那裡，看看是否有人對這個數字進行某種解讀，我以前從未見過。

Yes, I don't know if there's anything to read through that, Andrew, I think from time to time, we're subject to litigation and it's common in the industry -- the insurance industry, so the uptick in litigation claims expenses over the past several quarters, they've really been stemming from a made by resort seller. So some of that hopefully subsides.

是的，我不知道是否有任何內容需要閱讀，安德魯，我認為我們不時會受到訴訟，這在保險行業中很常見，因此過去幾個季度訴訟索賠費用的上升實際上源於度假村賣家的訴訟。希望這種情況能有所緩解。

And this quarter, the legal proceedings includes an estimate for settlements related to an outstanding litigation, not related to the DOJ, SEC matters as well as certain other legal expenses as well. So there is a number of items that can come through there, but they're usually not related to the normal operations of the business and not indicative of past performance or future operations, and that's why we put them below the line.

本季度，法律訴訟包括與未決訴訟相關的和解估計，與司法部、證券交易委員會事務以及某些其他法律費用無關。因此，有許多項目可以通過那裡，但它們通常與業務的正常運營無關，也不代表過去的業績或未來的運營，這就是我們將它們放在線下的原因。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪伯迪斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, good -- Does the higher life margin in the second half of 2025 and fly a more favorable run rate in 2026 and beyond? Or how should we think about that? Thanks.

嘿，很好——2025 年下半年的壽命裕度是否會更高，並且在 2026 年及以後的運行率會更有利嗎？或者我們該如何思考這個問題？謝謝。

Yes. I think after you end up making the assumption changes, I think from a policy obligations perspective, you would expect it to be a little bit higher of run rate going forward. Then keep in mind we are continuing to still see over the next couple of years, at least probably into '26.

是的。我認為，在你最終做出假設改變之後，從政策義務的角度來看，你會預期未來的運作率會更高一些。那麼請記住，我們仍將在未來幾年繼續觀察，至少可能持續到 26 年。

Some of the increases in amortization expense just because of the transition to LDTI that we talked about in the prior calls as well as kind of the renewal commissions. So there's probably a little bit of a tick up in the amortization that we're still going to see over the next couple of years. So I think looking forward, it's probably somewhat probably in the range, yes.

攤銷費用的增加部分是由於我們在先前的電話會議中討論的向 LDTI 的過渡以及續約佣金。因此，我們在未來幾年內仍會看到攤銷額略有上升。所以我認為展望未來，它可能在某種程度上是在這個範圍內，是的。

So probably similar range what we see in the first half of -- what we stated in the first half of '25.

因此，這可能與我們在 2025 年上半年看到的類似 - 我們在 2025 年上半年所說的類似。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Okay. And then life sales were below a full year, '25 guides in the first quarter, but you maintained the full year outlook. Could you just talk about some of the dynamics in the quarter and what you're seeing over the balance of the year? Thanks.

好的。然後，人壽銷售額低於全年水平，第一季為 25 家，但您維持了全年展望。您能否談談本季的一些動態以及您對今年剩餘時間的觀察？謝謝。

Sure. Really, January was softer than we anticipated. And as we've talked before, a little bit of recruiting and sales on the agency side is kind of a momentum game as they would say. And so with the holidays both Christmas and New Year's falling in the middle of two weeks running. Kind of really started all of our agencies off to a little bit of a slow start in January that ticked up through the remainder of the quarter. And so as I mentioned to an answer of an earlier question, we also looked at what was going on in April.

當然。確實，一月份的表現比我們預期的要疲軟。正如我們之前談到的，代理商方面的一些招募和銷售就像他們所說的那樣是一種勢頭遊戲。因此，聖誕節和新年假期都處於兩週的中間。我們所有代理商在一月份的開局確實有些緩慢，但在本季剩餘時間內逐漸改善。正如我在回答之前的問題時提到的那樣，我們也研究了四月發生的情況。

And April sales are consistent with our expectations as well as our agent count growth in April as compared to March or as compared to the prior year-end is higher. It's about a 3% higher just in the month of April, our agent count across all three agencies. And so that trend that we were seeing in the last half of is continuing now here in the first part of Q2.

四月份的銷售額與我們的預期一致，四月份代理商數量的增長與三月相比或與去年年底相比更高。光是 4 月份，我們三家代理商的代理商數量就增加了約 3%。因此，我們在第二季下半年看到的趨勢仍在繼續。

Now I'll have the caveat of one quarter -- I mean, one month does not a quarter make, but the trends continue to be positive. And so that gave us the confidence to reaffirm our sales guidance for the year for all of our various distributions because we're really not seeing anything significantly different than what our expectations were.

現在我要對一個季度提出警告——我的意思是，一個月不能構成一個季度，但趨勢仍然是正面的。因此，這讓我們有信心重申今年針對所有分銷管道的銷售指導，因為我們確實沒有看到與預期有顯著差異的情況。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇、派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you for the opportunity. You talked about intention to have an opportunity to reduce commercial paper this year. Where do you intend to get it to? Thank you.

感謝您提供的機會。您談到了今年減少商業票據的意圖。您打算把它送到哪裡去？謝謝。

Yes, the -- our commercial paper balance is historically have been in that $300 million range. And so we're kind of looking to bring it down from where we are today, right around $410 million closer to that $300 million, $325 million range.

是的，我們的商業票據餘額歷來都在 3 億美元的範圍內。因此，我們希望將其從目前的水準降低到 4.1 億美元左右，更接近 3 億美元或 3.25 億美元的範圍。

Yes. And John, if you kind of look back at a few years back 2022, '23, we were probably in about 3% of our total capitalization, including the short-term debt, it's about 3%. Last year, it got -- we ran that up a little bit more, and it's closer to 4%. So probably we're going to bringing it back closer to that level, that 3% level.

是的。約翰，如果你回顧幾年前的 2022 年、2023 年，我們的總資本大概佔 3%，包括短期債務在內，大約是 3%。去年，我們將其提高了一點，接近 4%。所以我們可能會將其恢復到接近該水平，即 3% 的水平。

And John, we're looking at a debt to capital ratio at the end of the year, right around 25%, which is kind of in the midpoint of kind of our operating range for our normal operating range for debt to capital ratios.

約翰，我們預計年底的債務資本比率約為 25%，這處於我們正常債務資本比率營運範圍的中間值。

Thank you for that. That's helpful. My follow-up question. Is the increase in health usage more frequency or severity-driven, I was reading about some human bandage fraud article reasons. So (inaudible)

謝謝你。這很有幫助。我的後續問題。健康使用量的增加是頻率驅動還是嚴重程度驅動，我正在閱讀一些關於人體繃帶詐欺文章的原因。所以（聽不清楚）

It's a great question, John. It is -- utilization is the big driver. But one of the causes of utilization increase is related to claims related to bandages, these specialty bandages, which does have a higher claim cost to it. So it's adding a little bit to the average claim cost as well. And that's something that we are taking action on to mitigate the impact of any fraud that's apparent that -- from those billings. So we're taking actions there to help manage those costs.

這是一個很好的問題，約翰。是的——利用率是主要驅動力。但利用率增加的原因之一是與繃帶相關的索賠，這些特殊繃帶確實具有更高的索賠成本。所以這也會增加一點平均索賠成本。我們正在採取行動，以減輕帳單中明顯的詐欺行為的影響。因此，我們正在採取行動來幫助管理這些成本。

Yes. I think one of the challenges on that, John, is that given that some of those new procedures, and I think the article that was out there, kind of talked about that is that they can be higher cost until they really get work through and then they become kind of more of a standard Medicare reimbursement rates and then that would tend to bring the rates down overtime. But at least, that is at least one of the drivers, and we're seeing a few other procedures that are being done in the doctor's office that are also giving rise at least to some of higher -- higher cost.

是的。約翰，我認為其中的一個挑戰是，考慮到一些新程序，而且我認為已經發表的文章已經談到了這一點，它們的成本可能會更高，直到它們真正發揮作用，然後它們會變得更接近標準的醫療保險報銷率，然後這往往會隨著時間的推移而降低費率。但至少，這是至少其中一個驅動因素，而且我們看到在醫生辦公室進行的其他一些程序也至少導致了一些更高的成本。

Yes. I was going to say, I think that's some of the things that give us confidence that we can manage through this like we've done for the decades that we've been writing this business is that a lot of our trend is associated with a few specific procedures in the office.

是的。我想說的是，我認為這些事情讓我們有信心管理這一切，就像我們幾十年來從事這項業務一樣，我們的許多趨勢都與辦公室裡的一些特定程序有關。

And so as we work through that, as Frank mentioned, the adjustments that most likely it will happen on the allowables as these new procedures get into the CMS allowables. Then going forward, coupled with continued right action, I think we'll be able to manage through that. I just might take us one more cycle.

因此，正如弗蘭克所提到的那樣，當我們解決這個問題時，隨著這些新程式進入 CMS 允許範圍，最有可能發生的調整就是允許範圍的調整。那麼展望未來，再加上持續採取正確的行動，我認為我們將能夠解決這個問題。我可能還會再帶我們去一次。

Yes. As Tom mentioned, this is actually one of the areas that we're really trying to spend some time and looking at how do we use some artificial intelligence, use our data to really try to identify areas of potentially fraudulent claims that are coming through, working with CMS to try to stem some of that, but really taking a look where we might have some of that not always can we get it done before we end up paying a claim because of the way we're connected with CMS, but we continue to make advances on where we can reduce some of that fraud cost on our side.

是的。正如湯姆所提到的，這實際上是我們真正想要花費一些時間並研究如何使用一些人工智慧的領域之一，使用我們的數據來真正嘗試識別可能出現欺詐性索賠的領域，與 CMS 合作試圖阻止其中的一些，但真正看看我們可能在哪裡有一些，由於我們與 CMS 的聯繫方式，我們並不總是能在最終支付索賠之前完成它，但我們繼續在減少我們這邊的欺詐成本方面取得一些進展。

All those trends or industry trends, they're not unique to United American.

所有這些趨勢或行業趨勢都不是聯合航空獨有的。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore.

湯姆·加拉格爾，Evercore。

Good afternoon. My first question is just in your guidance for '25 on health margins, are you assuming that this claims frequency issue stabilizes at current level, gets better, gets worse? What is the trend assumption you're using? It sounds like you got your arms around the rate increase earn in. But what about the -- on the claims side? What are you assuming?

午安.我的第一個問題是，在您對 25 年健康利潤的指導中，您是否假設索賠頻率問題會穩定在當前水平、變得更好還是變得更糟？您使用的趨勢假設是什麼？聽起來你已經掌握了利率上漲的訣竅。但索賠方面的情況又如何呢？你在假設什麼？

Yes. We are assuming that stays elevated, at least through the second quarter and then expected to moderate just a little bit in the second half of the year, which it tends to moderate generally as deductibles are used up that we're able to -- the trend will tend to moderate a little bit in the second half of the year.

是的。我們假設該數字至少在第二季度會保持高位，然後預計在下半年會略有緩和，隨著我們能夠使用的免賠額用完，該數字通常會趨於緩和 - 該趨勢將在下半年趨於緩和。

So when you say it remains elevated, so at a comparable level to Q1?

所以當您說它仍然處於高位時，那麼與 Q1 處於相當的水平？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

But again, just to be clear, the level of Q1 from an obligation perspective doesn't reflect the premium rate increases that are coming into play for the remaining three quarters of the year.

但再次需要明確的是，從義務角度來看，第一季的水準並未反映出今年剩餘三個季度的保費率上漲。

Understood. The -- my follow-up is how do we think about what all of this means for '25 statutory earnings? Because I the reserve release that you -- the $60 million to $100 million, is that GAAP only? Or is there any statutory impact for that? Because I presume the stat earnings on the health side are going to be consistent with GAAP, meaning they'll be weaker. But life, I'm a little less clear on whether you will see some kind of benefit? Or is that a gap only in meaning long-winded way of asking, is '25 stat earnings likely to be weaker than '24.

明白了。我的後續問題是，我們如何看待這一切對 25 年法定收入意味著什麼？因為我釋放的儲備金——6000 萬美元到 1 億美元，這只是 GAAP 嗎？或者這會產生任何法定影響嗎？因為我推測健康方面的統計收益將與 GAAP 一致，這意味著它們會更弱。但在生活中，我不太清楚你是否會看到某種好處？或者這只是一個意思上的差距，用冗長的方式問，25 年的統計收入是否可能比 24 年弱。

That's a great question. The $60 million to $100 million is a GAAP assumption of locking. So it's GAAP only. But when we see favorable claims trends, 100% of those that benefit comes through on the statutory side. generally, there's a smoothing mechanism that spreads good claims or bad claims over the future. So we should -- favorable mortality will impact statutory results in a favorable way as well.

這是一個很好的問題。6 千萬至 1 億美元是 GAAP 鎖定假設。所以它只是 GAAP。但當我們看到有利的索賠趨勢時，100% 的受益者都來自法定方面。一般來說，存在一種平滑機制，可以在未來分散好的索賠或壞的索賠。所以我們應該——有利的死亡率也會對法定結果產生有利的影響。

Yes. The one --

是的。一個--

So -- sorry, go ahead.

所以——抱歉，請繼續。

Well, to say as we think about '25 statutory earnings versus '24 statutory earnings, I think I just wanted to make clear while I agree with Tom that the favorable experience that we're seeing will work its way through to income as well.

好吧，當我們考慮 25 年法定收入與 24 年法定收入時，我想我只是想明確表示，雖然我同意湯姆的觀點，但我們所看到的有利經驗也會對收入產生影響。

Remember that we did have that the reserve revaluation adjustment in 2024 and as Tom has talked about on the last call, while we still anticipate some continuing benefits from that in 2025, we don't anticipate seeing them at the same level that we had in 2024. So there will be a little less statutory generated from that reserve valuation adjustment probably to the tune of roughly $75 million or so.

請記住，我們確實在 2024 年進行了儲備重估調整，正如湯姆在上次電話會議上談到的那樣，雖然我們仍然預計 2025 年將繼續從中受益，但我們預計不會達到與 2024 年相同的水平。因此，儲備金估值調整產生的法定收入將會減少一些，大概約 7,500 萬美元。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格（Ryan Krueger），KBW。

I had a related follow-up. I think you gave the free cash flow for the rest of the year. I was trying to back into, I think, the first quarter, but I figured I would just ask -- you just have the full year free cash flow expectation for this year?

我進行了相關的跟進。我認為您給出了今年剩餘時間的自由現金流。我想回到第一季度，但我想我只想問一下——您對今年全年的自由現金流有預期嗎？

Yes, excess cash flow is expected to be $785 million to $835 million for the full year, unchanged from where left.

是的，預計全年超額現金流將達到 7.85 億美元至 8.35 億美元，與先前持平。

And then I guess, just kind of coming back to what you were just talking about, so that when thinking about the moving pieces next year, are the -- you'll get -- you won't have the reinsurance benefit and then you'll have less of the valuation manual benefit. Are those the two key moving pieces we should think about?

然後我想，回到你剛才談論的內容，這樣當考慮明年的變動時，你會得到——你將不會有再保險福利，然後你將獲得更少的估值手冊福利。這是我們應該考慮的兩個關鍵因素嗎？

Yes. The reinsurance benefit we won't have and then less of an impact on the valuation manual changes but also a favorable impact to just growth in the business and the favorable mortality trends that we're seeing. Kind of in my estimation, run rates for excess cash flows would be in the $500 to $600 range kind of going forward, I think more midpoint of that range.

是的。我們將不會獲得再保險福利，這對估值手冊變化的影響較小，但對業務成長和我們所看到的有利死亡率趨勢也產生了有利的影響。據我估計，未來超額現金流的運行率將在 500 美元至 600 美元之間，我認為是該範圍的中間值。

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

好的，完美。謝謝。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hey, thank you. Good afternoon. On the remeasurement gains and assuming $60 million to $100 million with the 3Q review, are those pretty much baked in your view? Or could there be some deviation? And I guess it's not that small of a range at $40 million. So maybe what might drive that higher or lower in the next couple of quarters? And --

嘿，謝謝你。午安.關於重新計量收益，並假設第三季審查的收益為 6,000 萬美元至 1 億美元，您認為這些收益是否已經確定？或者說可能會有一些偏差？我想 4000 萬美元這個數字並不是那麼小。那麼，在接下來的幾個季度中，有什麼因素可能會導致這個數字上升或下降呢？和--

It's definitely included in our guidance range, right? So that is part of what's incorporated in there. On the pluses and minuses, it really is -- it's a very detailed process to go through setting the assumptions. And so we -- the assumptions are very, I'm going to say, detailed with regards to issue years, issue ages, attained ages, genders, so there's a lot of pluses and minuses that go across. And so until we actually put those into our valuation systems that will kind of determine exactly what that result is.

這肯定包含在我們的指導範圍內，對吧？這就是其中所包含的內容的一部分。就其優點和缺點而言，它確實如此——設定假設是一個非常詳細的過程。因此，我們的假設非常詳細，涉及發行年份、發行年齡、達到的年齡、性別，因此有許多優點和缺點。因此，直到我們真正將這些納入我們的估值系統，才能確定確切的結果。

So I think until we do that. That's why we have a bit of a wider range as far as where we think that estimate will be. So it's really kind of the implementation of changes and the final determination and judgment around what changes are made.

所以我認為直到我們做到這一點。這就是為什麼我們對估計值的範圍有更廣泛的看法。因此，這實際上是一種變革的實施，以及對做出哪些變革的最終決定和判斷。

Yes. The one thing I would just add to that is that, I mean, that's kind of what we've seen here through the first quarter, as Tom kind of mentioned before, we really like to see, again, how does mortality and lapses really prove out in the second quarter because that will have some influence on it. It's not a final determination on it. But it's the ability to kind of test those final assumptions and where they kind of land.

是的。我想補充一點，這就是我們在第一季看到的情況，正如湯姆之前提到的，我們真的很想再次看看死亡率和失誤率在第二季度究竟會如何表現，因為這會對它產生一些影響。這還不是最終決定。但它能夠測試這些最終假設以及它們的最終結果。

So just -- and because the reserves are as big as they are, minor changes on some of those assumptions can move that number around a little bit. So while there's some pretty good confidence range, it definitely come just a little bit of what we see here in the second quarter and how that kind of influences those final decisions.

所以——由於儲備規模很大，對某些假設進行微小的改變就會使這個數字發生輕微的變化。因此，儘管信心範圍相當不錯，但這肯定只是我們在第二季度看到的一些情況的一小部分，以及這些情況如何影響最終決定。

Great. That's helpful. And I guess just a quick follow-up. But the rate increases that you're going to have in Health and MedSup, do you expect some elevated as policyholders receive those rate increases?

偉大的。這很有幫助。我想這只是一個快速的後續問題。但是，健康和醫療補助 (Health and MedSup) 方面的費率將會上漲，您是否預計保單持有人收到這些費率上漲時費率也會有所提高？

We definitely see a bit of drop off when we do rate increases. But in general, I think they value the coverage that they have. And they're fairly existent.

當我們提高利率時，我們確實看到了一點下降。但總的來說，我認為他們重視他們所擁有的報道。而且它們確實存在。

I think it goes back to the comment that was made earlier that what we're seeing really is not unusual as far as -- I don't think it's limited just United American. And so it's an industry situation, so we would anticipate that other carriers would be raising rates as well.

我認為這又回到了先前的評論，我們所看到的情況確實並不罕見——我認為這不僅限於美國聯合航空公司。這是一個行業現狀，因此我們預計其他承運商也會提高費率。

And then that's where maybe the medsup -- or excuse me, the Medicare Advantage dynamic comes into play a little bit. There's still some issues out there. We are seeing with acceptance with Medicare Advantage and where that coverage is going and dropping doctors in networks and things like that.

然後也許這就是 medsup — — 或者對不起，醫療保險優勢動態發揮作用的地方。仍然存在一些問題。我們看到醫療保險優勢計劃的接受度以及該保險範圍的擴大和網絡中醫生數量的減少等情況。

So where that's been or have a little bit of a tailwind this past year, and we'll have to see where that kind of -- it's a little bit of a wild card where that goes. But that's why we don't really anticipate that there would be a large scale drop off or lapse if, in fact, we were to -- as we put in our rate increases.

那麼，過去一年的情況如何，或者說，有沒有一點順風，我們必須看看這種情況會如何發展——這有點像一張未知的卡片。但這就是為什麼我們實際上並不認為會出現大規模的下降或失誤——事實上，正如我們提高利率那樣。

I think the industry is seeing a trend and everybody's pricing for it accordingly so.

我認為這個行業正在看到一種趨勢，每個人都會相應地定價。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特‧卡馬斯（Suneet Kamath），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Great. Thanks. It sounds like some of the confidence you have in terms of maintaining the guidance for sales and such is April results. Normally, when you see these shocks, is there a little bit of a lag between kind of the environment changing and then when it impacts your customer behavior? Or does it sort of catch up? Or does it kind of show through pretty quickly there?

偉大的。謝謝。聽起來您對維持銷售指導以及四月份的業績有一定的信心。通常，當您看到這些衝擊時，環境變化和影響客戶行為之間是否存在一點延遲？或者說它已經趕上來了？還是它很快就顯現出來了？

Yes. Let me start with -- it's not just April. It was the trend that we were seeing throughout Q1. As I mentioned, January was softer than we anticipated, but looked at how February and particularly March performed and then you're seeing that trend continue through April.

是的。首先我要說的是──這不只是四月。這是我們在整個第一季看到的趨勢。正如我所提到的，一月份的表現比我們預期的要疲軟，但看看二月份，特別是三月份的表現，你會發現這種趨勢會持續到四月份。

So it's really the results of multiple months in how we think about that as we look at the momentum in our agent count with recruiting and growing our overall agents that are producing and submitting business. And so that is really a precursor, a leading indicator to ultimate sales growth.

因此，這實際上是我們經過數月思考得出的結果，因為我們在招募和增加生產和提交業務的整體代理商的同時，也在觀察代理商數量的增長勢頭。所以這其實是最終銷售成長的先兆和領先指標。

So we're also seeing -- we -- as I've mentioned before, we track our agent onboarding recruiting pipeline before they ever start producing business. And so people that are in the early stages of that pipeline before they get a license and start selling, we're seeing double-digit growth in that process. And so that bodes well for future growth as well.

因此，我們也看到 - 正如我之前提到的，我們在代理商開始開展業務之前就跟踪他們的入職招聘管道。因此，對於那些在獲得許可證並開始銷售之前處於該通路早期階段的人來說，我們看到了這一過程中兩位數的成長。這也預示著未來的成長將會很好。

And on the consumer side, we generally don't -- we've talked about this before, see significant impacts based on economic factors to our customers. And I think that really gets back to our customers value our products. They have a need for that. And more than 50% of our demographic does not have our coverage and the affordability of our policies where it's $30 or $50 or $60 a month, still makes that affordable.

從消費者角度來看，我們通常不會——我們之前已經討論過這個問題——看到基於經濟因素對我們的客戶產生重大影響。我認為這確實體現了我們的客戶對我們產品的重視。他們有這個需要。雖然我們有超過 50% 的人口沒有享受我們的保險，但我們的保單價格合理，每月只需 30 美元、50 美元或 60 美元，仍然可以負擔得起。

And what we really see is that as long as our customers have jobs or employee that they still find value in the products that we're offering as well as the cost of what they're trying to cover from an experience perspective. As those costs go up, we see them taking out more coverage. And so what I continue to be encouraged about is if I look at the trends of just the premium on a per policy basis, those trends are up in Q1 compared to last year.

我們真正看到的是，只要我們的客戶有工作或員工，他們仍然會發現我們提供的產品的價值以及從體驗角度他們試圖涵蓋的成本。隨著這些成本的上升，我們看到他們承擔了更多的保險。因此，讓我感到鼓舞的是，如果我只看每份保單的保費趨勢，就會發現第一季的保費趨勢與去年相比有所上升。

And so people are paying a little bit more to take out a little bit more coverage for their needs. So we're really not seeing any weakness there. And I'd say that's consistent. We go back to the 2008 through '10 time frame, 2020, '21. We had double-digit growth in our agent count. We had double-digit growth in sales across those time frames. And so I think that bodes well.

因此，人們願意多付一點錢來獲得更多的保障來滿足自己的需求。所以我們確實沒有看到任何弱點。我想說這是一致的。我們回顧 2008 年至 2010 年、2020 年、2021 年的時間範圍。我們的代理商數量實現了兩位數的成長。在這些時間段內，我們的銷售額實現了兩位數的成長。所以我認為這是個好兆頭。

One last comment I was going to make and kind of circle back to -- I realized that I didn't completely answer wellness comment, which I think will also -- or question, which I think will also get to part of your question as well. Is that I failed to mention our direct-to-consumer channel. I'll say that is we anticipate on our annual sales guidance that would kick in, in the latter half of this year. And so Q1 results are not dissimilar from what our expectations were, and that's why you see we reaffirmed our overall sales guidance for our direct-to-consumer channel.

我本來想說最後一條評論，然後回到正題——我意識到我並沒有完全回答關於健康的評論，我認為這也是——或者說問題，我認為這也會涉及到你的部分問題。是我沒有提到我們的直接面向消費者的管道。我想說的是，我們預計我們的年度銷售指導將在今年下半年生效。因此，第一季的業績與我們的預期並無不同，這就是為什麼我們重申了直接面向消費者管道的整體銷售預期。

And a lot of that is based on some of the things that we've been working on for quite some time related to underwriting automation and some other tools and data that we're using in that organization. We've been testing that for quite some time and anticipate that coming more fully online in the latter half of the year. And that will really help with our issue rates and really help us increase there.

其中很大一部分是基於我們長期以來一直在研究的一些與承保自動化以及我們在該組織中使用的一些其他工具和數據有關的事情。我們已經測試了很長時間，預計今年下半年將全面上線。這確實有助於提高我們的發行率，並幫助我們提高發行率。

And so that's why our guide is low single digits overall for an annual basis for DTC as some of the good things that we're doing there, and it relates to some of that technology spend. We've been talking about it for quite some time seeing that come into fruition.

這就是為什麼我們的指導是 DTC 的年度整體成長率保持在低個位數，這是我們在那裡做的一些好事，而且它與一些技術支出有關。我們已經討論了很長一段時間，希望看到這項成果。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I just have one more, and thanks for going over a little bit. Just on the reviews. I mean, I know you said that there's nothing new to update us on, and I get that fine. But is your expectation still that at some point, we will get sort of all clear? And any sense of how close we are to something like that?

好的。這很有道理。然後我只剩下一個問題了，感謝您的講解。僅就評論而言。我的意思是，我知道您說過沒有什麼新消息可以告訴我們，我明白這一點。但您是否仍然期望在某個時候，我們會把一切都弄清楚？您覺得我們距離這樣的事情還有多遠嗎？

We do anticipate, and that's what we're working through these processes of having a finalization that we can communicate. So that is definitely our goal in that area. It is hard to handicap the time frame, just you're dealing with -- as we've mentioned before, governmental agencies that don't have a lot of transparency and where they are in the process.

我們確實有預期，而且我們正在透過這些流程來達成可以溝通的最終結果。所以這絕對是我們在該領域的目標。很難限制時間框架，只是你要處理——正如我們之前提到的，政府機構缺乏足夠的透明度，而且他們也不知道他們處於什麼流程中。

I would venture to say that there's been a little bit of distraction in the government system, so to speak, over the last several months, and that that may bode well from a long-term perspective for us from a lower regulatory burden. But in the near term, it might cause a little bit of slowdown in some processes. So hard to handicap time but we definitely anticipate having the opportunity to be able to report out conclusions on those matters.

我敢說，在過去幾個月裡，政府系統出現了一些分心的情況，但從長遠來看，這可能對我們來說是個好兆頭，因為我們可以減輕監管負擔。但在短期內，這可能會導致一些流程稍微放緩。很難限制時間，但我們確實期待有機會就這些問題報告結論。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

There are no further questions on the line, so I will now hand you back to your host for closing remarks.

現在沒有其他問題了，現在我將把您交還給主持人，請您做結束語。

Alright. Thank you for joining us this morning. As there are comments, and we'll talk to you again next quarter.

好吧。感謝您今天上午加入我們。由於有評論，我們將在下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。