Globe Life Inc (GL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Globe Life third-quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. My name is Allen, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Globe Life 2024 年第三季財報發布電話會議。我叫艾倫，我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意，此通話正在錄音。（操作員說明）

I will now hand you over to your host, Stephen Mota, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

現在我將請主持人史蒂芬莫塔開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining the call today are Frank Svoboda and Matt Darden, our Co-Chief Executive Officers; Tom Kalmbach, our Chief Financial Officer; Mike Majors, our Chief Strategy Officer; and Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel.

謝謝。大家早安。今天加入電話會議的有我們的聯合執行長 Frank Svoboda 和 Matt Darden；湯姆‧卡爾姆巴赫 (Tom Kalmbach)，我們的財務長；梅傑斯 (Mike Majors)，我們的首席策略長；以及我們的總法律顧問布萊恩米切爾 (Brian Mitchell)。

Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our earnings release, 2023 10-K, and subsequent Forms 10-Q on file with the SEC. Some of our comments may also contain non-GAAP measures. Please see our earnings release and website for discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.

我們對您的問題的一些評論或回答可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅用於一般指導目的。因此，請參閱我們向 SEC 備案的收益報告、2023 年 10-K 以及後續的 10-Q 表格。我們的一些評論可能還包含非公認會計準則措施。請參閱我們的收益發布和網站，以了解這些條款的討論以及與 GAAP 措施的對帳。

I will now turn the call over to Frank.

我現在將把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Stephen. And good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, net income was $303 million or $3.44 per share compared to $257 million or $2.68 per share a year ago. Net operating income for the quarter was $308 million or $3.49 per share, an increase of 29% from a year ago. On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity through September 30 is 22.4%, and book value per share is $54.65.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。大家早安。第三季淨利為 3.03 億美元，即每股 3.44 美元，而去年同期淨利為 2.57 億美元，即每股 2.68 美元。該季度淨營業收入為 3.08 億美元，即每股 3.49 美元，比去年同期成長 29%。根據 GAAP 報告，截至 9 月 30 日的股本回報率為 22.4%，每股帳面價值為 54.65 美元。

Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income or AOCI, return on equity is 15.3%, and book value per share as of September 30 is $8.92, up 13% from a year ago. In our life insurance operations, premium revenue for the third quarter increased 4% from the year-ago quarter to $819 million. Life underwriting margin was $387 million, up 29% from a year ago. With the increase in life underwriting margin due primarily to a remeasurement gain (technical difficulty) unlocking of assumptions. Tom will have more in his comments on this remeasurement gain.

不包括累計其他綜合收益或 AOCI，股本回報率為 15.3%，截至 9 月 30 日的每股帳面價值為 8.92 美元，較去年同期增長 13%。在我們的人壽保險業務中，第三季保費收入較去年同期成長 4%，達到 8.19 億美元。壽險承保利潤率為 3.87 億美元，比去年同期成長 29%。壽險承保利潤率的增加主要是由於重新計量增益（技術難度）解除了假設。湯姆將在他對重新測量增益的評論中提供更多資訊。

For the year, driven by strong premium growth in both our American Income and Liberty National divisions, we expect life premium revenue to grow between 4.0% and 4.5% at the midpoint of our guidance and life underwriting margin to grow between 12% and 12.5%. As a percent of premium, we anticipate life underwriting margin to be around 41%. In health insurance, premium revenue grew 7% to $354 million, and health underwriting margin was down 10% to $87 million due primarily to a remeasurement loss related to an unlocking of assumptions.

今年，在我們的美國收入和自由國家部門保費強勁增長的推動下，我們預計壽險保費收入將在我們指導的中點增長 4.0% 至 4.5%，壽險承保利潤率將增長 12% 至 12.5% 。我們預計壽險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比約為 41%。在健康保險方面，保費收入成長 7%，達到 3.54 億美元，健康承保利潤率下降 10%，達到 8,700 萬美元，這主要是由於與解除假設相關的重新計量損失。

For the year, we expect health premium revenue to grow approximately 6.5% to 7%. At the midpoint of our guidance for the full year, we expect health underwriting margin to be flat and as a percent of premium to be around 27%. Administrative expenses were $88 million for the quarter. The increase is primarily due to higher information technology costs relating to maintaining IT software and services, employee-related costs, and legal expenses. For the full year, we expect administrative expenses to be approximately 7.3% of premium.

今年，我們預計健康保費收入將成長約 6.5% 至 7%。在我們全年指引的中點，我們預計健康承保利潤率將持平，佔保費的百分比約為 27%。該季度的管理費用為 8800 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於與維護 IT 軟體和服務相關的資訊技術成本、員工相關成本和法律費用增加。我們預計全年管理費用約為保費的 7.3%。

I will now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the third-quarter marketing operations.

我現在將把電話轉給馬特，請他對第三季度行銷營運發表評論。

Thank you, Frank. First, at American Income Life, here, the life premiums were up 7% over the year-ago quarter to $428 million, and life underwriting margin was up 22% to $221 million. In the third quarter of 2024, net life sales were $97 million, up 19% from a year ago, primarily due to the strong growth in agent count. The average producing agent count for the third quarter was 12,031, and this is up 10% from a year ago. This growth is due to the ongoing recruiting efforts as well as improvement in new agent retention.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。首先，在 American Income Life，壽險保費比去年同期成長 7%，達到 4.28 億美元，壽險承保利潤率成長 22%，達到 2.21 億美元。2024 年第三季度，壽險淨銷售額為 9,700 萬美元，年增 19%，這主要是由於代理人數量的強勁增長。第三季平均生產代理人數為 12,031 人，比去年同期成長 10%。這一增長得益於持續的招募工作以及新代理保留率的提高。

This agency continues to generate positive momentum. At Liberty National, the life premiums were up 6% over the year-ago quarter to $94 million, and life underwriting margin was up 63% to $45 million. Net life sales increased 1% to $24 million, and net health sales were $8 million, down 6% from the year-ago quarter. The average producing agent count for the third quarter was 3,794, and this is up 14% from a year ago.

該機構繼續產生積極的勢頭。Liberty National 的壽險保費比去年同期成長 6%，達到 9,400 萬美元，壽險核保利潤率成長 63%，達到 4,500 萬美元。壽險淨銷售額成長 1%，達到 2,400 萬美元，健康淨銷售額為 800 萬美元，比去年同期下降 6%。第三季平均生產代理人數為 3,794 人，比去年同期成長 14%。

Liberty National continues to generate strong agent count growth, which is driven by our investments in technology and the growth in middle management. Despite the flat sales for the quarter, I am very pleased and optimistic with the trends at Liberty. The strong middle management growth has resulted in an emphasis on recruiting and training and is reflected in the continued and meaningful agent count growth for this division. This bodes well for future sales growth.

Liberty National 座席人數持續強勁成長，這是由我們對科技的投資和中階管理人員的成長所推動的。儘管本季銷售額持平，但我對 Liberty 的趨勢感到非常滿意和樂觀。中階管理人員的強勁成長導致了對招募和培訓的重視，並反映在該部門座席人數持續且有意義的成長中。這對未來的銷售成長來說是個好兆頭。

As I've discussed before, agent count growth is a leading indicator for future sales growth. We focus on year-over-year growth in sales and agent count and recognize that quarter-to-quarter results may fluctuate as the agency operations switch focus between recruiting and sales throughout the year. In addition, I'd also point out that we had a difficult comparable this quarter as Liberty had a 31% increase in life sales and a 19% increase in health sales in the year-ago quarter.

正如我之前討論的，代理商數量成長是未來銷售成長的領先指標。我們專注於銷售和代理商數量的同比增長，並認識到，隨著代理業務全年在招聘和銷售之間切換重點，季度業績可能會出現波動。此外，我還想指出，本季我們很難進行比較，因為與去年同期相比，Liberty 的壽險銷售額成長了 31%，健康銷售額成長了 19%。

Now on to Family Heritage. Here, the health premiums increased 8% over the year-ago quarter to $108 million, and health underwriting margin declined 4% to $34 million. Net health sales were up 16% to $29 million due to an increase in agent count and agent productivity. The average producing agent count for the third quarter was 1,429, and this is up 8% from a year ago. I am pleased to see that this agency's efforts in recent quarters to emphasize recruiting and middle management development are now driving agent count growth, which bodes well for growth in 2025.

現在談談家族遺產。其中，健康保費比去年同期成長 8%，達到 1.08 億美元，健康承保利潤率下降 4%，達到 3,400 萬美元。由於座席數量和座席生產力的增加，淨健康銷售額增加了 16%，達到 2,900 萬美元。第三季平均生產代理人數為 1,429 人，比去年同期成長 8%。我很高興看到該機構最近幾季強調招募和中階管理人員發展的努力正在推動代理商數量的成長，這預示著 2025 年的成長。

In our direct-to-consumer division at Globe Life, the life premiums were down 1% over the year-ago quarter to $246 million, while life underwriting margin increased 40% to $88 million. Net life sales were $24 million, down 9% from the year-ago quarter. As we previously mentioned, the decline in sales is primarily due to lower customer inquiries as we reduced our marketing spend on certain campaigns that did not meet our profit objectives. Our focus in this area is having a positive impact on our overall margin as we continue to focus on maximizing the underwriting margin dollars on new sales by managing the rising advertising and distribution costs associated with acquiring new business.

在 Globe Life 的直接面向消費者部門，壽險保費比去年同期下降 1% 至 2.46 億美元，而壽險承保利潤率增長 40% 至 8,800 萬美元。壽險淨銷售額為 2,400 萬美元，比去年同期下降 9%。正如我們之前提到的，銷售額下降主要是因為客戶詢問減少，因為我們減少了某些未達到利潤目標的活動的行銷支出。我們在這一領域的重點是對我們的整體利潤率產生積極影響，因為我們繼續致力於透過管理與收購新業務相關的不斷上升的廣告和分銷成本來最大化新銷售的承保利潤率。

Now the value of our direct-to-consumer business is not only those sales directly attributable to this channel, but the significant support that is provided to our agency business through brand impressions and sales leads. We continue to invest in our capability to generate significant lead volume that translates into sales for our agency business.

現在，我們直接面向消費者的業務的價值不僅在於直接歸因於該管道的銷售，還在於透過品牌印象和銷售線索為我們的代理商業務提供的重要支援。我們繼續投資我們的能力，以產生大量的潛在客戶，從而轉化為我們代理業務的銷售。

During 2025, we anticipate we will generate over 750,000 leads, which will be provided to our three exclusive agencies from the direct-to-consumer division. The value contributed to the agencies by the direct-to-consumer division will continue to grow as we expect to see steady growth in our omnichannel marketing approach for the Globe Life brand.

2025 年，我們預計將產生超過 750,000 個銷售線索，這些銷售線索將提供給我們直接面向消費者部門的三個獨家代理商。由於我們預期 Globe Life 品牌的全通路行銷方法將穩定成長，因此直接面向消費者部門為代理商貢獻的價值將持續成長。

Now on to United American General Agency. Here, the health premiums increased 9% over the year-ago quarter to $150 million, driven by strong prior-year sales growth of 23%. Health underwriting margin was $14 million, down $1 million from the year-ago quarter due to higher claim costs as a result of higher utilization. Net health sales were $16 million, down 1% over the year-ago quarter. Now I'd like to move on to discuss projections.

現在轉到美國聯合總署。在上年銷售額強勁成長 23% 的推動下，健康保費年增 9% 至 1.5 億美元。健康承保利潤為 1,400 萬美元，比去年同期下降 100 萬美元，原因是利用率提高導致索賠成本增加。健康淨銷售額為 1,600 萬美元，比去年同期下降 1%。現在我想繼續討論預測。

Now based on what we're seeing and the experience with our business, we expect that average producing agent count trends for the full year of 2024 to be as follows: at American Income, an increase of around 11%; at Liberty National, an increase of around 14%; and at Family Heritage, an increase of around 5%. Net life sales for 2024 are expected to be as follows: at American Income, an increase of around 16%; Liberty National, an increase of around 4%; and direct-to-consumer, a decrease of around 8%.

現在，根據我們所看到的情況和我們的業務經驗，我們預計 2024 年全年的平均生產代理商數量趨勢如下：American Income 將成長約 11%； Liberty National 的增幅約為 14%； Family Heritage 的增幅約為 5%。2024 年壽險淨銷售額預計如下：American Income 成長約 16%； Liberty National，成長約4%；和直接面向消費者的下降約8%。

Net health sales for 2024 are expected to be as follows: Liberty National, an increase of around 1%; Family Heritage, an increase of around 11%; and United American General Agency, an increase of around 10%. Now let's discuss 2025. At the midpoint of our 2025 guidance, we expect sales growth for the full year of 2025 to be as follows. For life sales, we expect American Income for high single-digit growth; Liberty National, low double-digit growth; and direct-to-consumer, low to mid-single-digit growth. And on the health sales side, we expect Liberty National, Family Heritage, and United American General Agency to all have low double-digit growth.

預計 2024 年健康淨銷售額如下： Liberty National，成長 1% 左右；家族傳承，增長11%左右；和美國聯合總署，增幅約10%。現在我們來討論2025年。在我們 2025 年指導的中點，我們預計 2025 年全年的銷售成長如下。對於壽險銷售，我們預計美國收入將實現高個位數成長； Liberty National，低兩位數成長；以及直接面向消費者的低至中個位數成長。在健康產品銷售方面，我們預期 Liberty National、Family Heritage 和 United American General Agency 都將出現兩位數的低成長。

Now before I turn the call back over to Frank for investment operations, I'd like to make a few brief comments regarding the inquiries made by the SEC and the DOJ that we've previously discussed. There have been no material developments. And while these inquiries are still open, we have responded to the requests received to date. Neither organization has asserted any claims or made any allegations against Globe Life for AIL, and we are not aware of any actions being contemplated by the SEC or the DOJ. To the extent there's further information to share, we will update you accordingly.

現在，在我將電話轉回弗蘭克進行投資操作之前，我想就我們之前討論過的 SEC 和 DOJ 的詢問發表一些簡短的評論。目前還沒有任何實質進展。雖然這些詢問仍在進行中，但我們已經對迄今為止收到的請求做出了回應。兩個組織都沒有對 Globe Life for AIL 提出任何索賠或指控，我們也不知道 SEC 或 DOJ 正在考慮採取任何行動。如果有更多資訊可供分享，我們將相應更新您的資訊。

As we previously disclosed regarding data privacy and the threat actor extortion attempt, we are working with federal law enforcement in an active investigation. As you can understand, out of respect for this process, we will not be getting into specifics and have nothing further to add beyond what was included in our 8-K filing last week. While these investigations are ongoing, there has been no material impact on the company's systems and business operations.

正如我們之前披露的有關數據隱私和威脅行為者勒索企圖的信息，我們正在與聯邦執法部門合作進行積極調查。正如您所理解的，出於對這一流程的尊重，我們不會透露具體細節，除了上週 8-K 文件中包含的內容外，我們沒有任何進一步的補充。雖然這些調查仍在進行中，但並未對公司的系統和業務運作產生重大影響。

I'll now turn the call back to Frank.

我現在將電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Matt. We will now turn to the investment operations. Excess investment income, which we define as net investment income less only required interest, was $40 million, up $6 million from the year-ago quarter. Net investment income was $285 million, up 7% or $18 million from the year-ago quarter. The increase is largely due to the 5% growth in average invested assets over that period.

謝謝，馬特。我們現在轉向投資業務。超額投資收益（我們將其定義為淨投資收益減去所需利息）為 4,000 萬美元，比去年同期增加 600 萬美元。淨投資收益為 2.85 億美元，比去年同期成長 7%，即 1,800 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於同期平均投資資產增長了 5%。

In addition, higher interest rates also contributed to the higher growth rate. Required interest is up 5.3% over the year-ago quarter, slightly higher than the 5% growth in average policy liability. For the full year, we expect net investment income to grow between 7.5% and 8% due to the combination of the favorable interest rate environment and steady growth in our invested assets, while required interest is anticipated to grow around 5%. This combination of our net investment income growing at a higher rate than our required interest results in the growth of excess investment income by approximately 25% to 27%.

此外，較高的利率也促進了較高的成長率。所需利息較去年同期成長 5.3%，略高於平均保單負債 5% 的增幅。由於有利的利率環境和投資資產的穩定成長，我們預計全年淨投資收益將成長7.5%至8%，而所需利息預計將成長5%左右。我們的淨投資收入成長速度高於所需利息，導致超額投資收入成長約 25% 至 27%。

Now regarding our investment yield, in the third quarter, we invested $82 million in investment-grade fixed maturities, primarily in the financial and industrial sectors. These investments were at an average yield of 6.2%, an average rating of A minus and an average life of 30 years.

現在就我們的投資收益率而言，第三季我們在投資等級固定期限債券上投資了 8,200 萬美元，主要投資於金融和工業領域。這些投資的平均收益率為6.2%，平均評級為A-，平均壽命為30年。

This amount is lower than normal this quarter as we invested approximately $120 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships with debt-like characteristics and an average expected cash return of approximately 9.6% and contributed $200 million into a new company-owned life insurance program, which is expected to provide enhanced risk-adjusted, capital-adjusted returns over time.

這一金額低於本季度的正常水平，因為我們向商業抵押貸款和具有類似債務特徵的有限合夥企業投資了約1.2 億美元，平均預期現金回報率約為9.6%，並向新的公司擁有的人壽保險計畫投資了2 億美元，隨著時間的推移，預計將提供更高的風險調整和資本調整回報。

None of our direct investments in commercial mortgage loans involve office properties. These non-fixed maturity investments are expected to produce additional cash yield over our fixed maturity investments while still being in line with our conservative investment philosophy.

我們對商業抵押貸款的直接投資均不涉及辦公物業。這些非固定期限投資預計將比我們的固定期限投資產生額外的現金收益，同時仍符合我們保守的投資理念。

For the entire fixed maturity portfolio, the third-quarter yield was 5.25%, up 6 basis points from the third quarter of 2023, but down 1 basis point from the second quarter. As of September 30, the portfolio yield was 5.24%. Including the cash yield from our commercial mortgages and limited partnerships, the third quarter earn yield was 5.43%.

整個固定期限投資組合第三季殖利率為5.25%，較2023年第三季上升6個基點，但較第二季下降1個基點。截至9月30日，投資組合報酬率為5.24%。包括商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業的現金收益率，第三季的收益率為 5.43%。

Now regarding the investment portfolio, invested assets are $21.5 billion, including $19.1 billion of fixed maturities and amortized cost. Of the fixed maturities, $18.5 billion are investment grade with an average rating of A minus. Overall, the total fixed maturity portfolio is rated A minus, same as a year ago. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio has a net unrealized loss position of approximately $743 million due to the current market rates being higher than the book yield on our holdings.

現在就投資組合而言，投資資產為215億美元，其中包括191億美元的固定期限和攤提成本。在固定期限債券中，185 億美元為投資等級債券，平均評級為 A-負。整體而言，固定期限投資組合總體評級為 A-，與一年前相同。由於目前市場利率高於我們所持資產的帳面收益率，我們的固定期限投資組合的未實現淨損失部位約為 7.43 億美元。

As we have historically noted, we are not concerned by the unrealized loss position as it is mostly interest rate driven and currently relates entirely to bonds with maturities that extend beyond 10 years. We have the intent, and more importantly, the ability to hold our investments to maturity.

正如我們歷史上所指出的，我們並不擔心未實現的損失頭寸，因為它主要是利率驅動的，目前完全與期限超過 10 年的債券有關。我們有意願，更重要的是，有能力將我們的投資持有至到期日。

Bonds rated BBB comprised 46% of the fixed maturity portfolio compared to 48% from the year-ago quarter. This percentage is now at its lowest level since 2007. The portion of our fixed maturity portfolio comprised of BBB security has declined in recent periods as we have been able to find better relative value and higher-rated securities given current spreads.

評級為 BBB 的債券佔固定期限投資組合的 46%，而去年同期為 48%。這一比例目前處於 2007 年以來的最低水準。我們的固定期限投資組合中由 BBB 證券組成的部分近年來有所下降，因為考慮到當前利差，我們能夠找到更好的相對價值和更高評級的證券。

While this ratio is still high relative to our peers, a reminder that we have little or no exposure to higher-risk assets held by many of our peers, such as derivatives, equities, residential mortgages, real estate equities, CLOs, and other asset-backed securities. We believe that the BBB securities we acquire generally provide the best risk-adjusted, capital-adjusted returns due in part to our ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations.

雖然這一比率相對於我們的同行仍然很高，但這提醒我們，我們很少或根本沒有接觸許多同行持有的高風險資產，例如衍生性商品、股票、住宅抵押貸款、房地產股票、CLO 和其他資產－支持證券。我們相信，我們購買的 BBB 證券通常能提供最佳的風險調整後、資本調整後回報，部分原因在於我們無論波動如何都能持有證券至到期日。

The below-investment-grade bonds remain at historical lows of $556 million compared to $493 million a year ago. The percentage of below-investment-grade bonds to total fixed maturities is 2.9%. At the midpoint of our guidance, for the full-year 2024, we expect to invest approximately $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in fixed maturities at an average yield of 5.8% to 5.9% and approximately $400 million to $500 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnership investments with debt-like characteristics at an average expected cash return of 8% to 10%.

低於投資等級的債券仍處於 5.56 億美元的歷史低位，而一年前為 4.93 億美元。低於投資等級的債券佔固定期限債券總額的比例為2.9%。在我們指引的中期，2024 年全年，我們預計投資約11 億至13 億美元的固定期限債券，平均殖利率為5.8% 至5.9%，投資約4 億至5 億美元的商業抵押貸款和有限貸款具有類似債務特徵的合夥投資，平均預期現金回報率為8%至10%。

Also at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect the average yield earned on the fixed maturity portfolio to be around 5.25% for the full-year 2024 and slightly lower at approximately 5.24% for the full-year 2025. With respect to our commercial loans, limited partnerships, and company-owned life insurance, we anticipate the yield impacting net investment income to be in the range of 8% to 9% for 2024 and 7% to 8% and for 2025.

同樣，在我們指導的中點，我們預計 2024 年全年固定期限投資組合的平均收益率約為 5.25%，2025 年全年略低，約為 5.24%。對於我們的商業貸款、有限合夥企業和公司自有人壽保險，我們預計 2024 年影響淨投資收益的收益率將在 8% 至 9% 之間，2025 年將在 7% 至 8% 之間。

Now I will turn the call over to Tom for his comments on capital and liquidity.

現在我將把電話轉給湯姆，徵求他對資本和流動性的評論。

Thanks, Frank. First, let me spend a few minutes discussing our share repurchase program, available liquidity, and capital position. In the third quarter, the company repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares of Global Life Inc. common stock for a total cost of just over $580 million at an average share price of $100.34. To date, in the fourth quarter, we have purchased approximately 190,000 shares for a total cost of approximately $20 million at an average share price of $104.74, resulting in repurchases year to date of 9.9 million shares for a total cost of $930 million at an average share price of $93.57.

謝謝，弗蘭克。首先，讓我花幾分鐘討論我們的股票回購計畫、可用流動性和資本狀況。第三季度，該公司回購了約580萬股Global Life Inc.普通股，總成本略高於5.8億美元，平均股價為100.34美元。迄今為止，在第四季度，我們已購買了約190,000 股股票，總成本約為2,000 萬美元，平均股價為104.74 美元，導致年初至今回購了990 萬股股票，總成本為9.3 億美元，平均股價為股價為93.57美元。

For the quarter, share repurchases were higher than anticipated as we took the opportunity to accelerate and increase share repurchases given the favorable market conditions and the additional capital raised during the quarter as the net proceeds from refinancing the term loan and the issuance of the senior note were about $100 million higher than previously assumed.

本季的股票回購高於預期，因為考慮到有利的市場條件以及本季透過定期貸款再融資和發行優先票據的淨收益籌集的額外資金，我們藉此機會加速並增加了股票回購比之前的假設高出約1 億美元。

Including shared dividend payments of $22 million for the quarter, the company returned approximately $602 million to shareholders during the third quarter of 2024 and has returned approximately $995 million year to date for 2024. We anticipate distributing approximately $21 million to our shareholders in the form of dividend payments for the remainder of 2024.

包括本季 2,200 萬美元的共享股息支付在內，該公司在 2024 年第三季向股東返還了約 6.02 億美元，2024 年迄今已向股東返還了約 9.95 億美元。我們預計在 2024 年剩餘時間內以股利支付的形式向股東分配約 2,100 萬美元。

The company's excess cash flow, as we define it, results primarily from dividends received by the parent from its subsidiaries, less the interest paid on debt, and is available to return to shareholders in the form of dividends through share repurchases. At this time, given the acceleration of share repurchases during the year, we anticipate using our remaining excess cash flow to reduce our commercial paper balances to more normal levels. As such, at the midpoint of our guidance, we do not anticipate additional share repurchases.

正如我們所定義的，公司的超額現金流主要來自母公司從子公司收到的股息，減去債務利息，並可以透過​​股票回購以股息的形式返還給股東。目前，鑑於年內股票回購的加速，我們預計利用剩餘的過剩現金流將商業票據餘額減少至更正常的水平。因此，在我們指導的中期，我們預計不會進行額外的股票回購。

Now let me provide an update on a couple of initiatives to increase available capital. During the quarter, we executed two external reinsurance transactions. The first, amended and existing financial reinsurance agreement; and the second is a reinsurance agreement to reinsure approximately $460 million of our in-force annuity reserves, which is anticipated to be effective on November 1. These transactions are expected to provide $100 million of additional excess cash flow at the parent by the end of the year.

現在讓我提供一些增加可用資本舉措的最新情況。本季度，我們執行了兩筆外部再保險交易。第一份經修訂的現有財務再保險協議；第二個是再保險協議，對我們有效年金準備金中約 4.6 億美元進行再保險，預計將於 11 月 1 日生效。這些交易預計將在年底前為母公司提供 1 億美元的額外超額現金流。

In addition, we continue to evaluate the opportunity to manage capital under an economic framework available in Bermuda, and we expect to conclude this work in 2025. In terms of parent liquidity, the parent began the quarter with liquid assets of approximately $35 million and ended the quarter with approximately $85 million of liquid assets. We anticipate ending the year with liquid assets within our targeted range of $50 million to $60 million.

此外，我們將繼續評估在百慕達可用的經濟框架下管理資本的機會，我們預計在 2025 年完成這項工作。就母公司流動性而言，母公司本季初的流動資產約為 3,500 萬美元，本季末的流動資產約為 8,500 萬美元。我們預計今年底流動資產將在 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的目標範圍內。

Our goal is to maintain our capital at levels necessary to support our current ratings. Globe Life targets a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. As discussed on previous calls, our consolidated RBC ratio was [314%] at the end of 2023. For 2024, we currently estimate that no additional capital is needed to maintain our consolidated RBC target of 300% to 320%.

我們的目標是將我們的資本維持在支持我們目前評級所需的水平。Globe Life 的目標是將公司綜合行動水準 RBC 比率控制在 300% 至 320% 之間。如同先前電話會議所討論的，截至 2023 年底，我們的綜合 RBC 比率為 [314%]。對於 2024 年，我們目前估計不需要額外資本來維持我們 300% 至 320% 的綜合 RBC 目標。

Now with regards to policy obligations for the current quarter, as we discussed in prior calls, we have included within our supplemental financial information available on our website and exhibit that details the remeasurement gain or loss by distribution channel. As a reminder, in the third quarter each year, we update both our life and health reserve assumptions. The remeasurement exhibit provides detail on the overall impact of the assumption changes b y distribution channel.

現在，關於本季度的保單義務，正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，我們已在我們的網站上提供的補充財務信息中包含了這些信息，並詳細說明了按分銷渠道重新計量的收益或損失。提醒一下，每年第三季度，我們都會更新生命和健康儲備假設。重新測量展示提供了有關分銷管道假設變化的整體影響的詳細資訊。

For the quarter, the overall remeasurement gain of $61 million reflects a $46 million gain from life and health assumption changes and a $15 million gain from experience fluctuations in the quarter. For the quarter, the life remeasurement gain of $71 million resulted in lower life policy obligations. $57 million was related to the assumption changes. This is higher than what we had anticipated and reflects recent experience trends for mortality and lapses.

本季的整體重新計量收益為 6,100 萬美元，反映出生命和健康假設變化帶來的 4,600 萬美元收益以及本季經驗波動帶來的 1,500 萬美元收益。本季度，壽險重新計量收益為 7,100 萬美元，導致壽險保單義務減少。 5700 萬美元與假設變更有關。這高於我們的預期，反映了死亡率和失誤的最新經驗趨勢。

Health remeasurement loss of $10 million resulted in higher health policy obligations and was primarily related to assumption changes. These updated health assumptions anticipated higher future claims as a result of product changes, primarily at Family Heritage Life and AIL designed to enhance the value of these policies to our policyholders.

1000 萬美元的健康重新測量損失導致衛生政策義務增加，主要與假設變化有關。這些更新的健康假設預計由於產品變更（主要是 Family Heritage Life 和 AIL 旨在提高這些保單對保單持有人的價值），未來索賠金額會更高。

Now with respect to earnings guidance for 2024, for the full-year 2024, we estimate net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $12.20 to $12.40. The $12.30 midpoint is higher than our previous guidance and reflects the recent favorable underwriting income results and the higher share repurchases than previously anticipated for the year.

現在就 2024 年獲利指引而言，對於 2024 年全年，我們估計稀釋後每股淨營業收益將在 12.20 美元至 12.40 美元之間。 12.30 美元的中點高於我們先前的指導，反映了近期良好的核保收入結果以及高於先前預期的今年股票回購。

With regards to 2025 guidance, for the full-year 2025, we estimate net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $13.20 to $13.90, representing 10% growth at the midpoint of the range. At the midpoint of our guidance, we anticipate premium revenue growing at 4.5% to 5% for life and 7.5% to 8.5% for health, the anticipated underwriting margins as a percent of premium to be in the range of 39% to 42% for life and 26% to 28% for health.

關於 2025 年指引，我們預計 2025 年全年攤薄後每股淨營業收益將在 13.20 美元至 13.90 美元之間，相當於該範圍中點增長 10%。在我們指導的中點，我們預計壽險保費收入將增加 4.5% 至 5%，健康保險保費收入將增加 7.5% 至 8.5%，預計承保利潤佔保費的百分比將在 39% 至 42% 之間。和健康佔26%至28%。

In addition, we anticipate net investment income to experience flat to low single-digit growth next year and required interest to grow in the range of 3% to 3.5% due to a reduction in assets and policy reserves related to the annuity reinsurance transaction. Although 2024 [sets and] results are not final for the year, at this time, we anticipate parent excess cash flows available to return to shareholders in 2025 will be approximately $575 million to $625 million. This is higher than 2024 due to the anticipated increases in statutory earnings in 2024 over 2023 and reflects the favorable impact of statutory valuation changes.

此外，由於年金再保險交易相關的資產和保單準備金減少，我們預計明年淨投資收入將出現持平或低個位數成長，所需利息成長在3%至3.5%之間。儘管 2024 年的業績尚未最終確定，但目前我們預計 2025 年可用於返還股東的母公司超額現金流將約為 5.75 億至 6.25 億美元。這高於 2024 年，因為預計 2024 年法定收益將比 2023 年增加，並反映了法定估值變化的有利影響。

Those are my comments. I will now turn the call back to Matt.

這些是我的評論。我現在將把電話轉回給馬特。

Thank you, Tom. To sum up our comments, I am very encouraged with the company's overall operational performance and financial results this year, and I believe that we are well positioned for strong growth in 2025. With that, we'll now open up the call for questions.

謝謝你，湯姆。總而言之，我對公司今年的整體營運表現和財務表現感到非常鼓舞，我相信我們已做好準備，在 2025 年實現強勁成長。至此，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Jimmy Bhullar，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. So first, just a question on life margins. If we take out the remeasurement gain, the margin is still better than it's been in a while. And so wondering if it's just an aberration and normal volatility in claims experience? Or are you seeing anything that would suggest that claims are maybe declining, COVID or non-COVID claims?

嗨，早安。首先，我想問一個關於壽命邊際的問題。如果我們去掉重新測量增益，利潤率仍然比一段時間以來要好。那麼想知道這是否只是索賠經歷中的異常和正常波動？或者您是否看到任何跡象表明索賠可能正在下降，無論是新冠肺炎索賠還是非新冠索賠？

Yes, Jimmy, thank you for the question. I think we're seeing claims improve. So I think we're seeing continued favorable claims. And so we'd like to see that continue for a few more quarters, but are pleased with kind of where it is right now.

是的，吉米，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們看到索賠有所改善。所以我認為我們看到了持續的有利主張。因此，我們希望看到這種情況持續幾個季度，但對目前的情況感到滿意。

And then on the -- I thought, overall, your results were pretty strong, just the higher lapses in AIL and in Direct Response. Any color on what's going on there, and what your expectations are for those businesses?

然後，我認為，總體而言，你們的結果相當強勁，只是 AIL 和直接回應方面的失誤較高。您對那裡正在發生的事情有何看法？

I think the part to note that lapses fluctuate from quarter to quarter. And we're actually fairly pleased with the resiliency of the business in case of all that we've been going through. And actually, I think we're seeing an impact of some of the continued general economic conditions to our customers.

我認為需要注意的是，失誤率每季都有波動。事實上，我們對我們所經歷的一切情況下業務的彈性感到相當滿意。事實上，我認為我們正在看到一些持續的總體經濟狀況對我們的客戶的影響。

So I think at AIL, in times of economic stress, we do see some higher lapses. And I think the AIL results are fairly consistent with the lapse rates we've seen in times of economic stress. So that's kind of where -- kind of the way that we're thinking about it right now, Jimmy.

因此，我認為在 AIL，在經濟壓力時期，我們確實會看到一些更高的失誤。我認為 AIL 的結果與我們在經濟壓力時期看到的失誤率相當一致。這就是我們現在正在考慮的方式，吉米。

Okay. And then just lastly, on your guidance, you mentioned no additional share buybacks. I'm assuming you're mentioning -- you're talking about 2024, but what's the buyback assumption embedded in your 2025 EPS guidance?

好的。最後，根據您的指導，您提到沒有額外的股票回購。我假設您提到的是 2024 年，但 2025 年 EPS 指導中包含的回購假設是什麼？

We'll give more guidance on the buyback assumption in our next call. But with we did give guidance on the excess cash flows, which is about $200 million, which is indicative of some additional buybacks that we'd anticipate next year as well.

我們將在下次電話會議中就回購假設提供更多指導。但我們確實對超額現金流給出了指導，約為 2 億美元，這表明我們預計明年還會進行一些額外的回購。

And the cash flow number you're referring, $600 million is the number you're referring to, right?

你所指的現金流數字，6億美元就是你所指的數字，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. And Jimmy, I would say that just to confirm that Tom's comment did relate to just for the remainder of 2024, so we do have the excess cash flow anticipated at the 5.75 to 6.25 for 2025. And again, absent some other use of those funds, we would anticipate that we'd be using those for buybacks. We will anticipate going back to our normal process of, hey, we've got excess cash flow coming in throughout the year. We're going to evaluate the use of those funds and have some better alternative uses using those -- continuing to use those to fund buybacks.

是的。吉米，我想說這只是為了確認湯姆的評論確實只涉及 2024 年剩餘時間，因此我們確實有 2025 年預期的超額現金流量為 5.75 至 6.25。再說一次，如果這些資金沒有其他用途，我們預計我們會將這些資金用於回購。我們預計會回到正常的流程，嘿，我們全年都會有多餘的現金流。我們將評估這些資金的使用情況，並利用這些資金找到一些更好的替代用途——繼續使用這些資金為回購提供資金。

And then Jimmy, I was going to say you're correct. Q4, no more planned other than the $20 million that we've completed so far.

然後吉米，我想說你是對的。第四季度，除了我們迄今為止已完成的 2000 萬美元之外，沒有其他計劃。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. On the unlocking related to the assumption review in life, can you just talk about what drove that in terms of the assumptions? I think you mentioned mortality and lapse. But is there also any impact to go-forward run-rate earnings?

你好，謝謝。早安.關於與生活中的假設回顧相關的解鎖，您能談談假設方面是什麼推動了這一點嗎？我想你提到了死亡率和失效。但這對未來的運行率收益也有影響嗎？

Well, I think the -- clearly, the assumption unlocking is related to our views -- our latest views of mortality and lapse. And that does actually impact a bit of a more favorable run rate from a policy obligation perspective. So that's reflected in the guidance I gave you as far as our underwriting margin ranges. That's fully reflected within those ranges.

嗯，我認為——顯然，解鎖的假設與我們的觀點有關——我們對死亡率和失效的最新觀點。從政策義務的角度來看，這實際上確實會影響一些更有利的運作率。因此，這反映在我給您的承保保證金範圍的指導中。這在這些範圍內得到了充分體現。

That makes sense. I guess I just think about, there's been a string of kind of favorable remeasurement gains. But with the assumption unlocking, does that kind of reset that to where you wouldn't really expect any more favorable kind of remeasurement gains coming through the P&L?

這是有道理的。我想我只是想，有一系列有利的重新測量收益。但是，隨著假設的解除，這種情況是否會將其重置為您不會真正期望透過損益表獲得任何更有利的重新計量收益的地方？

Yes. It does reset that. The assumptions reflect our latest estimates for mortality, morbidity, and lapses. And they're based on our observable long-term trends and not just the last couple of quarters that have been favorable. So as we update and get additional experience, we'll continue to update those assumptions.

是的。它確實重置了這一點。這些假設反映了我們對死亡率、發病率和失誤的最新估計。它們基於我們可觀察到的長期趨勢，而不僅僅是過去幾季的有利趨勢。因此，當我們更新並獲得更多經驗時，我們將繼續更新這些假設。

So I think, clearly, the mortality expectations have improved. And in the last couple of quarters, near-term results have been favorable, right? So if they continue, then we're likely to see those being more favorable than our long-term assumptions and would result in remeasurement gains. So I think if the near-term results continue, we could see some favorable remeasurement gains relative the assumptions. And what I'd say is, again, our guidance anticipates -- the range of the guidance anticipates what we believe would be variations within that.

所以我認為，死亡率預期顯然有所改善。在過去的幾個季度中，近期業績一直不錯，對嗎？因此，如果它們繼續下去，那麼我們可能會看到這些比我們的長期假設更有利，並將導致重新衡量收益。因此，我認為，如果近期結果持續下去，我們可能會看到相對於假設的一些有利的重新計量收益。我想說的是，我們的指導預期——指導的範圍預期了我們認為其中的變化。

Yes. Wes, I think it is really important to think about that the assumptions that are getting reset are really based on overall long-term assumptions and the modeling that we have based on our book of business. And while the really -- the recent results are input into that model, you don't, each year, just reflect those assumptions based on really what we're seeing in the last few quarters.

是的。韋斯，我認為考慮一下非常重要的一點是，正在重置的假設實際上是基於整體長期假設以及我們基於業務手冊的建模。雖然最近的結果確實被輸入到該模型中，但每年你並不會僅僅根據我們在過去幾季所看到的情況來反映這些假設。

So it's based on a much longer view of that. And we are seeing some really favorable results right now. And while clearly, the long-term assumptions, we think they're improved from where we were a year ago, as Tom said, if we continue to see some mortality at the level that we're -- we've been experiencing in the last couple of quarters, we very well could have some remeasurement gains still in the future.

所以這是基於更長遠的觀點。我們現在看到了一些非常有利的結果。雖然很明顯，長期假設，但正如湯姆所說，我們認為，如果我們繼續看到一些死亡率處於我們所經歷的水平，那麼它們比一年前有所改善。很可能在未來仍有一些重新衡量的收益。

Got it. That's all really helpful. Thank you. And then my last question, I guess, I think you filed an 8-K in the quarter regarding the EEOC, and I think the issue perhaps relates to your agents and whether they should be classified as independent contractors and employees. But can you maybe just talk about where that issue stands and any other recent developments there?

知道了。這一切都非常有幫助。謝謝。然後我的最後一個問題，我想，我認為您在本季度提交了一份有關EEOC 的8-K，我認為這個問題可能與您的代理人以及他們是否應該被歸類為獨立承包商和僱員有關。但您能否談談這個問題的現狀以及最近的任何其他進展？

Don't have any significant update from what we put in there. But just as a reminder, the EEOC's investigation findings are not binding, and there's administrative processes that could lead to a resolution on that. And we do have a long history of successful outcomes where courts have previously agreed with our position and determined that American Income sales agents are independent contractors. And as we noted in the 8-K, three of the individual complainants that have asserted Title VI claims against us, in private litigation, each of those claims have been dismissed with prejudice.

我們在那裡發布的內容沒有任何重大更新。但提醒一下，平等就業機會委員會的調查結果不具約束力，並且有一些行政程序可以導致對此問題的解決。我們確實有著悠久的成功歷史，法院之前同意我們的立場，並確定美國收入銷售代理是獨立承包商。正如我們在 8-K 中指出的，三名個人投訴人在私人訴訟中向我們提出第六章索賠，每一項索賠都被有偏見地駁回。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Maybe on the actuarial assumption review, with recent headlines talking about obesity levels having peaked, are you now factoring impact from GLP-1 drugs into your forward assumptions on mortality? Thank you.

早安.感謝您提供的機會。也許在精算假設審查中，最近的頭條新聞談論肥胖水平已經達到頂峰，您現在是否將 GLP-1 藥物的影響納入您對死亡率的前瞻性假設中？謝謝。

John, we are not factoring in the forward improvement in our mortality assumptions from those drugs. I think that's an area that we continue to really look at and study and we'll see how those actually emerged. As Tom said, we won't try to build those in from a future view. And once we really start seeing the impact, that's how it will really be taken into account.

約翰，我們沒有考慮到這些藥物對死亡率的預期改善。我認為這是我們繼續真正關注和研究的一個領域，我們將看到這些實際上是如何出現的。正如湯姆所說，我們不會嘗試從未來的角度來建構這些內容。一旦我們真正開始看到影響，我們就會真正考慮到它。

I think one of the challenges that we have is for our particular insured population, it's always getting -- as we've talked about on previous calls, getting access to those types of drugs and having the affordability and availability to them. And so we want to make sure that it's hitting our insured base before we start working those in.

我認為我們面臨的挑戰之一是對於我們特定的參保人群來說，正如我們在先前的電話會議中談到的那樣，他們總是要獲得這些類型的藥物，並且具有負擔能力和可用性。因此，在我們開始實施這些措施之前，我們希望確保它能夠影響我們的保險基礎。

That makes sense. And my follow-up question on '25 guidance, does that include a view on freed-up capital from a Bermuda platform? And how do you view the total addressable market for that platform with Globe's liabilities? Thank you.

這是有道理的。我對 25 年指導的後續問題是否包括對百慕達平台釋放資本的看法？您如何看待該平台的總潛在市場以及 Globe 的負債？謝謝。

John, it does not include anything related to any final conclusions on Bermuda. We're still in the evaluation phase. We expect to conclude that in 2025. And then one of the benefits of Bermuda is it does take a little bit of time to get the benefits through reciprocal jurisdiction status that's required. So it will be over time that if we conclude the move liabilities to Bermuda that we see benefits to it.

約翰，它不包括任何與百慕達最終結論相關的內容。我們仍處於評估階段。我們預計將在 2025 年得出這一結論。百慕達的好處之一是它確實需要一點時間才能透過所需的互惠管轄權地位獲得好處。因此，隨著時間的推移，如果我們結束向百慕達的遷移負債，我們就會看到它的好處。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

Hey, good morning. So I'm looking at the average -- I'm sorry, the quarterly average producing agent count, and American Income, up 10; Liberty, up 14; Family Heritage, up 8. Could you give a little backdrop? I mean, I know you've touched on middle management, but how sustainable is that without giving guidance? And can you keep adding middle management? Can you keep adding producers? Are these numbers that are one-off, or are they potentially sustainable over the next few years?

嘿，早安。所以我關注的是平均值——抱歉，季度平均生產經紀人人數和美國收入增加了 10；自由號，上升 14 名；家族遺產，上升 8。你能提供一些背景嗎？我的意思是，我知道您已經談到了中階管理人員，但是如果不提供指導，這種情況的可持續性如何？你能繼續增加中階管理人員嗎？可以繼續增加生產者嗎？這些數字是一次性的，還是在未來幾年內可能可持續？

Well, what we like to see is that growth in the middle management count because that really is the sustainable growth going forward. It's those middle managers that are out in the field recruiting, training, and onboarding new agents. And so that's one of the key metrics we generally look at. And so as we reflected more so on the sales guidance, kind of have to have strong growth on the agent count side to support that.

嗯，我們希望看到的是中階管理人員的成長很重要，因為這確實是未來的永續成長。正是這些中階管理人員在現場招募、培訓和入職新代理商。所以這是我們通常關注的關鍵指標之一。因此，當我們更多地反映銷售指導時，代理商數量方面必須有強勁的增長來支持這一點。

But my guidance for 2025 on the sales growth in the agencies, I think it's all very robust. And you look at -- we've had quarter-over-quarter agent count growth that's been sustainable, particularly at American Income and Liberty. If I go back to the last quarter, in Q2, American Income had 13% growth in agent count, and Liberty had 16% count -- agent count growth. And in Q1, American Income had 15% growth, and Liberty had 14% growth.

但我認為 2025 年代理商銷售成長的指導非常強勁。你看，我們的代理人數逐季度成長是可持續的，特別是在美國收入和自由銀行。如果我回到上個季度，在第二季度，American Income 的代理人數增加了 13%，而 Liberty 的代理人數增加了 16%。第一季度，美國營收成長 15%，Liberty 成長 14%。

So those are all, in my mind, very sustainable going forward because it's supported by double-digit management count growth underneath that. And so that's why we kind of look at that agent count growth as a leading indicator to our future sales growth. So we like the momentum that we're seeing on the agent count side that should translate well into 2025.

因此，在我看來，這些都是非常永續的未來，因為它得到了兩位數管理人數成長的支持。這就是為什麼我們將代理商人數成長視為我們未來銷售成長的領先指標。因此，我們喜歡在代理數量方面看到的勢頭，這應該會很好地轉化為 2025 年。

Very helpful. And then just shifting over to the health margins with Globe writing a lot of Medicare supplement, I imagine that's really what's getting hit on the margins. Could you talk about your ability to reprice that book and what you would need to go through with regulators to change the pricing?

非常有幫助。然後，隨著《環球報》撰寫大量醫療保險補充資料，轉向健康邊緣，我想這確實是邊緣受到的打擊。您能否談談您對該書重新定價的能力以及您需要與監管機構進行哪些合作才能改變定價？

Yes. We actually look at rate increases, look at the medical trend each year, and we actually go through our book and file rates -- rate increases, if needed, with regulatory authorities. We've had really good results as far as getting those rate increases through. And so we're right in the middle of that process right now, and we'd expect those rate increases to become effective in 2025. There is a little bit of a lag sometimes between when we see the experience and when we get the rate increases. So we are playing a little bit of catch-up right now, but we anticipate getting appropriate rate increases for next year.

是的。我們實際上會關注費率的上漲，關注每年的醫療趨勢，並且我們實際上會仔細檢查我們的帳簿和文件費率——如果需要的話，會與監管機構一起提高費率。就提高利率而言，我們取得了非常好的成果。因此，我們現在正處於這一過程的中間，我們預計這些升息將於 2025 年生效。有時，我們看到體驗和獲得加價之間會有一點延遲。因此，我們現在正在努力追趕，但我們預計明年將適當提高利率。

Yes. Andrew, the one thing I would just add to that is just a reminder that on that Met sub business, it does have that 65% minimum loss ratio that we need to see over time. And then that's where our team is really, as Tom mentioned, very active and just trying to make sure that we'll get our annual reviews and rate increases, put it in.

是的。安德魯，我要補充的一件事只是提醒大家，在 Met 子業務中，隨著時間的推移，我們需要看到 65% 的最低損失率。正如湯姆所提到的，這就是我們的團隊非常活躍的地方，只是試圖確保我們能夠得到年度審查和加價，把它放進去。

You can have a little bit of a lag. So if we had to have a little bit higher claims, let's just say in this year, you put in your rate increases. You should make it up next year and then just kind of depending on how then the utilization and cost trends take place in the following year.

您可能會有一點滯後。因此，如果我們必須有更高一點的索賠，那麼我們就說今年，您增加了利率。您應該在明年進行彌補，然後取決於下一年的使用率和成本趨勢如何發生。

Super helpful. Thanks.

超有幫助。謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I guess, goes back to the capital discussion. You guys were considering M&A earlier in the year before the stock pulled back. Is there a sort of level where you would consider transactions again? And then on the capital side of things, is the intention that you guys will start buying back your stock once -- at the start of the first quarter of next year?

你好，謝謝。早安.我想我的第一個問題可以追溯到資本討論。今年早些時候，在股價回檔之前，你們就在考慮併購。是否有某種程度您會再次考慮進行交易？然後在資本方面，你們是否打算在明年第一季初開始回購股票一次？

Yes. Let me start with the M&A discussion. Historically, we focus and have been pretty selective on things that are properties in our target market area. We like properties that have exclusive distribution or distribution that we think that we have expertise in being able to grow as well as products in the market, that middle income market that we compete in. And so that's how we kind of think about it.

是的。讓我從併購討論開始。從歷史上看，我們專注於目標市場領域的房產，並且非常有選擇性。我們喜歡擁有獨家經銷權或經銷權的房產，我們認為我們擁有能夠成長的專業知識以及市場上的產品，即我們參與競爭的中等收入市場。這就是我們的想法。

Those opportunities come along, ever so often, and we evaluate those. And so we would continue to do that in the future to the extent that met those criteria around our strategy from an acquisition perspective. And then I think as we mentioned earlier, related to the question on stock buyback, we would go through next year and more so our ratable process where we typically execute that throughout the year.

這些機會經常出現，我們會評估這些機會。因此，我們未來將繼續這樣做，只要從收購的角度滿足我們策略的這些標準。然後我認為，正如我們之前提到的，與股票回購問題相關，我們將在明年進行，尤其是我們的評級流程，我們通常會全年執行該流程。

Yes. And I would anticipate that we would start that in the first quarter. And then we'll -- kind of our cash management process that we have throughout the year that we released that and we're getting dividends up, we'll start getting dividends, ordinary dividends from the subsidiaries in Q1. And then that will -- again, as we evaluate that, and absent another better alternative, I would see us starting those again in Q1.

是的。我預計我們將在第一季開始。然後我們將——我們發布的全年現金管理流程，我們正在增加股息，我們將開始從第一季的子公司獲得股息，普通股息。然後，當我們評估這一點時，如果沒有其他更好的選擇，我會看到我們在第一季再次開始這些選擇。

Thanks. And then have you guys said how much of your fixed income investments are in floating rate securities? And as we start to see interest rates perhaps move down a bit more, would you guys in '25 expect to invest more in some of those other investments like commercial mortgage loans, limited partnerships, et cetera?

謝謝。那你們有沒有說過你們的固定收益投資有多少是浮動利率證券？當我們開始看到利率可能會進一步下降時，25 世紀的你們會期望在商業抵押貸款、有限合夥等其他一些投資上進行更多投資嗎？

Yes, so pretty much all of our commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships are in floating rate investments. And so that's a little bit over $1 billion that we have in those floating rate assets. Currently, those total -- I may call it the alternatives to fixed investment or fixed income securities. It's about 7.3%.

是的，我們幾乎所有的商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業都是浮動利率投資。因此，我們的浮動利率資產略高於 10 億美元。目前，我可以將這些總額稱為固定投資或固定收益證券的替代品。大約是7.3%。

We would anticipate probably, I think in 2025, 25% or 30% of our total investments, acquisitions that we'd be making over the course of the year. And we would probably somewhere close to $1.5 billion that we would look to invest in 2025. And so, again, roughly 25% or 30% of that we would anticipate being in the CML and the LPs. And so we'd be growing our exposure into those a little bit in '25 as well.

我認為，到 2025 年，我們預計我們將在這一年中進行收購，佔總投資的 25% 或 30%。到 2025 年，我們可能會投資接近 15 億美元。因此，我們預計其中約 25% 或 30% 屬於 CML 和 LP。因此，我們也會在 25 年增加對這些領域的接觸。

Yes. And just on the liability side, we do have floating rate debt as well. So our commercial paper and our term loan are both floating rate debts that kind of offsets with lower financing costs if rates were to come down a little bit.

是的。僅在負債方面，我們也確實有浮動利率債務。因此，我們的商業票據和定期貸款都是浮動利率債務，如果利率稍微下降，可以用較低的融資成本來抵銷。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪·布爾迪斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning. Could you guys just go a little bit more on what drove the negative health remeasurement gain? I thought you talked about something about product changes? Was it a little bit underpriced? Can you just kind of talk in more detail about that? Thanks.

嘿，早安。你們能否再詳細說明是什麼導致了健康狀況重新測量的負面增益？我以為你談到了有關產品變化的事情？是不是價格有點低了？能更詳細談談嗎？謝謝。

Sure. So a couple of things here. We've had some pretty favorable health experience over the last couple of years, particularly during the pandemic. And so we want to make sure that our customers are receiving good value from their health products. And so we're making some product changes to enhance the value of the policyholders.

當然。這裡有幾件事。在過去幾年中，特別是在大流行期間，我們獲得了一些相當有利的健康體驗。因此，我們希望確保我們的客戶從他們的健康產品中獲得良好的價值。因此，我們正在對產品進行一些更改，以提高保單持有人的價值。

The other piece of that is on Family Heritage. Large of those products have returned a premium benefit, and that return on premium benefit is net of claims paid. So given we've got favorable claims experience, the return of premium benefit is also a little bit more valuable. So we've updated our assumptions around that as well.

另一部分是關於家族遺產的。這些產品中的大部分已經返還了保費收益，並且保費收益的回報已扣除已支付的索賠。因此，鑑於我們擁有良好的理賠經驗，保費收益的回報也更有價值。所以我們也更新了我們的假設。

Yes. One thing I just probably want to clarify is that that adjustment really is on those supplemental health products underwritten by Family Heritage, a little bit from Liberty, and then American Income. It doesn't impact any of the Medicare supplement products that we have at United American.

是的。我可能想澄清的一件事是，這種調整實際上是針對那些由 Family Heritage 承保的補充保健產品，還有一點來自 Liberty，然後是 American Income。它不會影響我們在美國聯合航空擁有的任何 Medicare 補充產品。

Okay, thank you. And then could you talk a little bit about what you guys plan to do with the leverage over time? Is there a target to get back to the lower 20% range? And I guess sort of related to that, is it possible to call out the amount of the valuation manual change that will be reflected in 2025 cash flow? Thanks.

好的，謝謝。然後你們能談談您們計劃隨著時間的推移如何利用槓桿嗎？是否有回到 20% 以下範圍的目標？我想與此相關的是，是否有可能指出將反映在 2025 年現金流中的估值手冊變更金額？謝謝。

Yes. Well, we're still targeting 23% to 27% debt cap ratio. That's kind of the range that we've historically targeted. So no change in that. And then the valuation of manual changes, we estimate in excess of $120 million of benefit.

是的。嗯，我們的目標仍然是 23% 至 27% 的債務上限比率。這就是我們歷來的目標範圍。所以沒有改變。然後是手動更改的估值，我們估計收益超過 1.2 億美元。

And Wilma, I think we kind of project we'd be at the top end of that range. That's kind of our target range at the end of '24. And then just through normal growth, that would tend to come down a little bit over 25%. And so then we'll continue to look at that as that drops and how we think about our leverage ratios going forward.

威爾瑪，我認為我們預計我們將處於該範圍的頂端。這就是我們 24 年底的目標範圍。然後，只要透過正常成長，這一數字往往會下降 25% 以上。因此，隨著槓桿率的下降，我們將繼續關注這一點，以及我們如何看待未來的槓桿率。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特·卡馬斯，杰弗里斯。

Yes, thanks. Good morning. I know you're still contemplating use of a Bermuda -- I guess subsidiary Bermuda solution. But if you decide to sort of pull the trigger on that, should we think about that capital need as sort of being a potential use for some of that $575 million to $625 million cash flow to the holding company?

是的，謝謝。早安.我知道您仍在考慮使用百慕達——我猜是附屬的百慕達解決方案。但如果你決定啟動這項計劃，我們是否應該將資本需求視為流向控股公司的 5.75 億至 6.25 億美元現金流的潛在用途？

We don't -- I would say no. I think our opportunity with Bermuda is to move towards an economic valuation framework, which is likely to release the need for capital, so lower asset requirement than what we need in the States. So we feel that as really an opportunity to raise capital rather than use capital.

我們不——我會說不。我認為我們與百慕達的機會是走向經濟評估框架，這可能會釋放對資本的需求，因此資產要求低於我們在美國所需的水平。因此，我們認為這確實是一個籌集資金而不是使用資本的機會。

Yes. I thought you had mentioned something about -- it might take some time or there might be a lag before you start to see the benefits, that's why I was asking the question.

是的。我想你已經提到過一些事情——在你開始看到好處之前可能需要一些時間或可能會有延遲，這就是我問這個問題的原因。

Yes. The lag is just as you move business to Bermuda, you need to make sure that you have appropriate collateral for reserve credit. And so Bermuda has what's called a reciprocal jurisdiction status, but it takes a few accounting periods to be able to qualify for that status.

是的。滯後就像您將業務轉移到百慕達一樣，您需要確保您有適當的儲備信貸抵押品。因此，百慕達擁有所謂的互惠管轄權地位，但需要幾個會計週期才能獲得該地位。

Yes, and so we wouldn't anticipate that -- well, one is that included in the $575 million to $625 million is no anticipated benefit from any Bermuda transaction. And I think specifically to your question, it really should take from that anything that we're going to do or that we may do in Bermuda.

是的，所以我們不會預料到這一點 - 嗯，其中之一是 5.75 億至 6.25 億美元中包含的任何百慕大交易都不會帶來預期收益。我認為具體到你的問題，它確實應該取自我們將要做的或我們可能在百慕達做的任何事情。

I was just going to say and if we did move forward, as Tom mentioned, we'd be completing that analysis in '25. And so the lag on the benefit is more likely in a 2026 timeframe.

我只是想說，如果我們確實向前推進，正如 Tom 所提到的，我們將在 25 年完成該分析。因此，在 2026 年的時間範圍內，效益更有可能出現延遲。

Okay. And then I guess, I just want to come back to the guidance. Are you assuming that you get additional remeasurement gains embedded in that 2025 guidance? And if you are, is there a way to think about how much of that 10% growth, midpoint to midpoint, is from remeasurement?

好的。然後我想，我只想回到指導。您是否假設您在 2025 年指導中獲得了額外的重新衡量收益？如果是的話，有沒有辦法考慮 10% 的成長（中點到中點）有多少來自重新衡量？

What I'd say is that our range of underwriting margin results really reflects kind of our view of obligation results, which clearly, we'll have fluctuations during the course of the year. And as I mentioned earlier, if our near-term results -- mortality results over the last few quarters continues, we're likely to see remeasurement gains. And so we've tried to incorporate that view in the range of our underwriting margins in the guidance.

我想說的是，我們的承保保證金結果範圍確實反映了我們對債務結果的看法，很明顯，我們在這一年中會出現波動。正如我之前提到的，如果我們的近期結果——過去幾季的死亡率結果持續下去，我們可能會看到重新測量的收益。因此，我們試圖將此觀點納入指導中的承保利潤範圍。

Got it. And is it sort of like bottom end of the range is no incremental remeasurement and the top end of the range has? Is that the right way to think about it?

知道了。是不是有點像範圍的底端沒有增量重新測量而範圍的頂端有？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I think that's a good way to think about it.

我認為這是一個很好的思考方式。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore.

湯姆‧加拉格爾，《Evercore》。

Good morning. First question, just on the Bermuda capital possibility potential. Are we talking about a few hundred million dollars of capital that might get freed up? Or do you think it might be much larger than that? I just want to get a broad sense for how consequential that might be.

早安.第一個問題，關於百慕達資本的可能性潛力。我們談論的是可能釋放的數億美元資本嗎？或者你認為它可能比這個大得多？我只是想大致了解這可能產生的後果。

That's exactly the work that we're going through right now is just what is the opportunity there. Our liabilities are long. And in an economic framework, sometimes the requirements with regards to long-duration liabilities and asset portfolio that's a little bit shorter. Those benefits aren't as big as what might be expected. So that's really where the evaluation is what is the potential there, and that's kind of the decision point as far as whether we move forward or not.

這正是我們現在正在經歷的工作，也正是那裡的機會。我們的負債是長期的。在經濟框架中，有時對長期負債和資產組合的要求會稍微短一些。這些好處並不像預期的那麼大。因此，這實際上是評估那裡的潛力的地方，這就是我們是否繼續前進的決策點。

Got it. So that's still -- you're not far along enough in the process to really get a sense for the range just yet. Is that fair?

知道了。所以，你在這個過程中還沒有走得足夠遠，還不足以真正了解這個範圍。這樣公平嗎？

Correct, correct. Right in the valuation, yes.

正確，正確。就估值而言，是的。

Okay. So as we think about what your new assumptions are after going through the actuarial review, are you still assuming some level of excess mortality persist here? Or have you pretty much eliminated that now? Are you assuming we're back to pre-pandemic level going forward?

好的。因此，當我們在經過精算審查後思考您的新假設是什麼時，您是否仍然假設這裡仍然存在一定程度的超額死亡率？或者你現在已經基本消除了它嗎？您是否認為我們會回到大流行前的水平？

Yes, we're not really back to pre-pandemic levels at this point. We see costs that continue to be higher than pre-pandemic levels. So we haven't -- we don't necessarily have an explicit assumption for excess mortality. What we've tried to do is build into our assumption. Our current best views as far as mortality and lapses at this point in time based upon long-term experience that we've had, and we'll continue to update as near-term experience emerges.

是的，目前我們還沒有真正回到大流行前的水平。我們看到成本繼續高於大流行前的水平。所以我們沒有──我們不一定對死亡率過高有明確的假設。我們試圖做的就是建立我們的假設。我們目前對死亡率和故障的最佳看法是基於我們所擁有的長期經驗，隨著近期經驗的出現，我們將繼續更新。

Got you. And then just two other quick ones, if I could. So if I heard you correctly, to answer Wilma's question, it sounds like, we'll call it, the sustainable amount of free cash flow that you expect to emerge in 2025 would be in the high $400 million range, maybe like $480 million after you back out the benefit from the valuation changes. Is that about the right level to think about right now?

明白你了。如果可以的話，然後還有另外兩個快速的。因此，如果我沒聽錯的話，要回答Wilma 的問題，聽起來，我們稱之為，您預計2025 年出現的可持續自由現金流量將在4 億美元的高位範圍內，也許2025 年之後的4.8億美元左右。現在考慮這個水平合適嗎？

I think we're maybe a little higher than that just because of -- I think the valuation changes will have continued benefit in 2025 that will carry into 2026. So I do think that there are some -- I think they'll be diminished over time, but I think there will be some additional benefits in the future.

我認為我們的估值可能會比這更高一點，因為我認為估值變化將在 2025 年持續帶來好處，並將持續到 2026 年。所以我確實認為有一些——我認為它們會隨著時間的推移而減少，但我認為未來還會有一些額外的好處。

Got it. So there's a little bit of a tail on that that persist?

知道了。那麼，這裡面是否有一點尾巴一直存在呢？

There is.

有。

Okay. And then finally, just how much is the term loan paydown that you expect to do in Q4?

好的。最後，您預計第四季度的定期貸款還款額是多少？

I don't think it's a term loan paydown just looking at reducing some of the commercial paper balances. So as you see, that had popped up in Q3 as we were using that to, I'm going to say, prefund some of the repurchases into Q3. So we would anticipate bringing that down in that $50 million to $100 million.

我不認為這只是為了減少一些商業票據餘額而償還定期貸款。正如您所看到的，這種情況在第三季突然出現，因為我們正在使用它來為第三季的部分回購預提供資金。因此，我們預計將其減少 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。

Got you. Okay, thank you.

明白你了。好的，謝謝。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格，KBW。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. On the admin expenses, it seems like they were pretty elevated in the quarter. I think it looks like they're going to be higher in the fourth quarter too. Can you comment on what exactly is driving that, and what is your expectation for 2025?

嘿，謝謝。早安.在管理費用方面，本季的管理費用似乎相當高。我認為第四季他們的表現也會更高。您能否評論一下到底是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及您對 2025 年的期望是什麼？

Yes. So admin expenses were higher than what we had anticipated. We are seeing a little bit higher employee costs, including benefit costs, a little bit more technology costs as we move to software as a service as well as a little bit higher legal expenses that we've seen in the third quarter and we'd expect to continue in the fourth quarter as well. So those are kind of some of the reasons why we're a little bit higher than what we had anticipated.

是的。因此管理費用高於我們的預期。我們看到員工成本增加了一點，包括福利成本，隨著我們轉向軟體即服務，技術成本增加了一點，以及我們在第三季度看到的法律費用增加了一點，我們會預計第四季度也將繼續。這些是我們比預期略高的一些原因。

One thing I would add to that, Ryan, is when we think about -- IT is a big driver of that, and we've really been making a lot of investments over the last few years, last couple of years, especially, as we do think around improving our data analytics capabilities and data management and a lot of that is moving offsite to cloud. And so then the costs of that are running higher as we think of that software as a service and renting space out there, if you will.

Ryan，我要補充的一件事是，當我們想到時，IT 是其中的一個重要驅動因素，過去幾年，特別是過去幾年，我們確實進行了大量投資。能力和資料管理，其中許多正在異地轉移到雲端。因此，當我們將該軟體視為一種服務並在那裡租用空間（如果您願意的話）時，其成本就會越來越高。

But then we're really focused on in our admin area around improving our customer experience and the digital experience. And so we've had a lot of software and applications and hardware involved with that and our policy administration improving our customer service. Several of those things came online here in 2024. And so that's what's kind of really driving a fair decent portion of the bump as we think of '23 to '24.

但我們真正關注的是在管理領域改善我們的客戶體驗和數位體驗。因此，我們擁有大量與此相關的軟體、應用程式和硬件，以及我們的政策管理來改善我們的客戶服務。其中一些東西已於 2024 年上線。因此，正如我們所認為的 23 至 24 年間，這才是真正推動相當大一部分成長的因素。

If we look forward to '25, we do see it probably growing. I think the admin as a percentage of premium still being around that 7.4, so roughly the same as where we have, so roughly kind of growing, if you will, of premium growth. That's really what our goals are is to make sure we're keeping that as manageable as possible as we kind of -- and making sure that we're realizing the value for some of these investments as well.

如果我們展望 25 年，我們確實會看到它可能會成長。我認為管理費佔保費的百分比仍然在 7.4 左右，與我們的情況大致相同，如果你願意的話，保費增長大致在增長。我們的真正目標是確保我們盡可能地保持其可管理性，並確保我們也能實現其中一些投資的價值。

Got it, thanks. And then on the reinsurance you mentioned, was the -- I guess is there any costs we should be considering of doing so? And do you see any additional opportunities for reinsurance?

明白了，謝謝。關於你提到的再保險，我想我們應該考慮這樣做的任何成本嗎？您認為再保險還有其他機會嗎？

I don't -- there aren't any clear costs that I think should be reflected. I think we'll just continue to evaluate reinsurance as we look at managing capital managing risk overall for the organization.

我不認為——我認為沒有任何明確的成本應該反映出來。我認為，當我們考慮管理組織的整體風險時，我們將繼續評估再保險。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Jimmy Bhullar，摩根大通。

Hi. I just had a couple of other questions. One is on the MedSup business. It seems like claims levels for many senior products -- senior health products have increased for a number of your peers in health insurance. And there are going to be high disenrollment from Med Advantage plan. So are you seeing any of that? And should -- if that does happen, should this help sales of MedSup plans?

你好。我還有其他幾個問題。其中之一是 MedSup 業務。似乎許多高級產品的索賠水平——許多健康保險同行的高級健康產品的索賠水平有所增加。Med Advantage 計劃的退出人數將會很高。那你看到這些了嗎？如果確實發生了，這應該有助於 MedSup 計劃的銷售嗎？

Well, to the extent -- I think we've seen that in the past. To the extent there's some disruption on the Medicare Advantage side, there's typically a benefit for the Medicare supplement market. As you continue to see some of that disruption currently, we think that could be a tailwind for us over the coming period. So a little bit of wait and see that market, as you know, definitely volatile. But to the extent you see disenrollments there, it could benefit us on our Medicare supplement side.

嗯，在某種程度上——我想我們過去已經看到過這一點。如果醫療保險優勢方面出現一些混亂，那麼醫療保險補充市場通常會受益。由於目前您繼續看到一些幹擾，我們認為這可能會成為我們未來一段時間的順風車。所以，大家都知道，市場一定會波動，請耐心等待。但就你看到的退保情況而言，這可能對我們的醫療保險補充方面有利。

And then just lastly, you've had elevated legal expenses, not as part of operating but in net income. Fair to assume that that continues in the short term? And if it does, I'm assuming that that's not included in your free cash flow numbers.

最後，你的法律費用增加了，不是作為營運的一部分，而是作為淨利潤的一部分。可以合理地假設這種情況在短期內持續下去嗎？如果確實如此，我假設這不包含在您的自由現金流數字中。

Yes. I mean, I do think, Jimmy, that it probably will. We do anticipate that it's probably going to continue at some elevated levels here at least for the short term. There really has been kind of a change in just how some of the legal cases are being worked and they're becoming more complex in the system and just taking longer to resolve and adjudicate, which is driving up some of those costs as well. And so it is actually reflected in our overall thoughts around our excess cash flows.

是的。我的意思是，吉米，我確實認為它可能會的。我們確實預計，至少在短期內，它可能會繼續保持在較高水平。一些法律案件的處理方式確實發生了變化，系統變得更加複雜，解決和裁決的時間也更長，這也推高了其中一些成本。因此，這實際上反映在我們對過剩現金流的整體想法中。

Okay. All right, thank you.

好的。好的，謝謝。

There are no further questions on the line, so I will now hand you back to your host for closing remarks.

線路上沒有其他問題了，所以我現在將把您交給主持人進行結束語。

All right. Thank you for joining us this morning. Those are our comments, and we will talk to you again next quarter.

好的。感謝您今天早上加入我們。這些是我們的評論，我們將在下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。