Globe Life Inc (GL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Globe Life Inc. third-quarter earnings release call. My name is Jeannie, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to your host, Stephen Mota, Senior Director of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

大家好，歡迎參加環球人壽保險公司第三季財報電話會議。我叫珍妮，我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在我將把會議交給主持人，投資者關係高級總監史蒂芬·莫塔，開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Joining the call today are Frank Svoboda and Matt Darden, our co-Chief Executive Officers; Tom Kalmbach, our Chief Financial Officer; Mike Majors, our Chief Strategy Officer; and Brian Mitchell, our General Counsel. Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements that are provided for general guidance purposes only. Accordingly, please refer to our earnings release 2024 10-K and a subsequent Forms 10-Q on file with the SEC. Some of our comments may also contain non-GAAP measures. Please see our earnings release and website for discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Frank.

謝謝。各位早安。今天參加電話會議的有：我們的聯合執行長 Frank Svoboda 和 Matt Darden；我們的財務長 Tom Kalmbach；我們的首席策略長 Mike Majors；以及我們的總法律顧問 Brian Mitchell。我們對您所提問題的一些評論或回答可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅供一般參考。因此，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2024 年 10-K 表格及後續的 10-Q 表格。我們的一些評論可能包含非GAAP指標。有關這些條款的討論以及與 GAAP 指標的調節，請參閱我們的獲利報告和網站。現在我將把通話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, net income was $388 million or $4.73 per share, compared to $303 million or $3.44 per share a year ago. Net operating income for the quarter was $394 million or $4.81 per share, an increase of 38% over the $3.49 per share from a year ago. On a GAAP reported basis, return on equity through September 30 is 21.9% and book value per share of $69.52. Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI, return on equity at 16.6% and book value per share as of September 30 is $93.63, up 12% from a year ago.

謝謝你，史蒂芬，大家早安。第三季淨利為 3.88 億美元，即每股 4.73 美元，去年同期為 3.03 億美元，即每股 3.44 美元。本季淨營業收入為 3.94 億美元，即每股 4.81 美元，比去年同期的每股 3.49 美元增長了 38%。依照美國通用會計準則（GAAP）報告，截至9月30日，股本回報率為21.9%，每股帳面價值為69.52美元。若不計入累計其他綜合收益（AOCI），截至9月30日，股本回報率為16.6%，每股帳面價值為93.63美元，較上年同期成長12%。

Before I discuss the third quarter insurance operations, I would like to revisit the nature of the market we serve. As most of you know, we serve the lower middle to middle income market. This market is vastly underserved and has significant growth potential, providing us with a distinct competitive advantage. This advantage is protected due not only to our ability to efficiently reach this market through both exclusive and direct-to-consumer distribution channels, but also due to the tremendous amount of data and experience we possess as we have been in the same market for over 60 years with essentially the same products. The basic protection life and health insurance products we offer are specifically designed to help provide financial security to consumers in this market.

在討論第三季保險業務之前，我想先回顧一下我們所服務市場的性質。正如你們大多數人所知，我們的服務對像是中低收入到中等收入市場。這個市場目前服務嚴重不足，具有巨大的成長潛力，這為我們提供了明顯的競爭優勢。這項優勢的保障不僅在於我們能夠透過獨家和直接面向消費者的分銷管道高效地進入這個市場，還在於我們擁有大量的數據和經驗，因為我們在這個市場已經經營了 60 多年，產品也基本相同。我們提供的基本保障型人壽和健康保險產品，旨在為該市場的消費者提供財務保障。

We continue to be proud to serve this market and are grateful for the opportunity to help working family protect their financial future. In our insurance operations, total premium revenue in the third quarter grew 5% over the year ago quarter. For the full year 2025, we expect total premium revenue to grow approximately 5% as well, which is slightly higher than in 2024 and consistent with our 10-year average growth rate. Life premium revenue for the third quarter increased 3% from the year ago quarter to $844 million. Life underwriting margin was $482 million, up 24% from a year ago, driven by premium growth plus remeasurement gains due to good mortality experience, including the updating of both mortality and lapse assumptions.

我們一直很榮幸能為這個市場服務，並感謝有機會幫助工薪家庭保障他們的財務未來。在我們的保險業務中，第三季總保費收入比去年同期成長了 5%。我們預計 2025 年全年保費收入總額也將成長約 5%，略高於 2024 年的水平，與我們 10 年的平均成長率一致。第三季人壽保險保費收入比去年同期成長 3%，達到 8.44 億美元。壽險承保利潤為 4.82 億美元，比上年同期增長 24%，主要得益於保費增長以及由於良好的死亡率經驗（包括死亡率和失效假設的更新）而帶來的重新計量收益。

For the full year, we expect life premium revenue to grow between 3% and 3.5%. As a percentage of premium, we anticipate life underwriting margin to be between 44% and 46%. In health insurance, premium revenue grew 9% in the quarter to $387 million and health underwriting margin was up 25% and to $108 million due primarily to premium growth and remeasurement gains. For the year, we expect health premium revenue to grow in the range of 8% to 9% and anticipate health underwriting margin as a percent of premium to be between 25% and 27%. Administrative expenses were $90 million for the quarter, an increase of 1% over the third quarter of 2024.

我們預計全年壽險保費收入將成長 3% 至 3.5%。我們預計人壽保險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 44% 到 46% 之間。在健康保險方面，本季保費收入成長了 9%，達到 3.87 億美元；健康保險承保利潤率成長了 25%，達到 1.08 億美元，這主要得益於保費成長和重新計量收益。今年，我們預計健康保險保費收入將成長 8% 至 9%，預計健康保險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 25% 至 27% 之間。本季行政費用為 9,000 萬美元，比 2024 年第三季成長 1%。

As a percent of premium, administrative expenses were 7.3%. For the year, we expect administrative expenses to be approximately 7.3% of premium, the same as in 2024. I will now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the third quarter marketing operations.

管理費用佔保費的7.3%。今年，我們預計管理費用約為保費的 7.3%，與 2024 年相同。現在我將把電話交給 Matt，請他對第三季的行銷營運發表評論。

Thank you, Frank. I'd like to start with a few comments about our exclusive agency force. We currently have over 17,500 exclusive agents that sell only for us. These agents are the strength to grow Globe Life. While we frequently see short-term agent count fluctuations in a stairstep pattern, this agency force has consistently generated significant long-term growth.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。我想先就我們的獨家代理團隊談幾點看法。我們目前擁有超過 17,500 名獨家代理商，他們只為我們銷售產品。這些代理人是環球人壽發展壯大的力量泉源。雖然我們經常看到代理人數量在短期內呈現階梯式波動，但這種代理力量持續產生顯著的長期成長。

In fact, the average agent count has nearly doubled over the past 10 years. The ability to maintain and grow an exclusive agency force is a core competency of our company. As a reminder, we typically recruit individuals who haven't previously sold insurance and are looking for a better opportunity. This provides us with an enormous pool of potential recruits that provides a tremendous growth opportunity going forward. As we have mentioned in the past, there is a very close correlation between sales growth and agent count growth over the long term.

事實上，在過去 10 年裡，平均經紀人數量幾乎翻了一番。維持和發展專屬代理團隊的能力是我們公司的核心競爭力。再次提醒，我們通常會招募以前沒有銷售過保險產品，並且正在尋找更好發展機會的人。這為我們提供了龐大的潛在人才庫，為未來的發展提供了巨大的機會。正如我們之前提到的，從長遠來看，銷售成長與代理商數量成長之間有著非常密切的相關性。

And we are confident that our agent force will continue to grow, and our goal is to surpass 28,000 exclusive agents and $1.4 billion in annual sales by 2030. Now I'll discuss each distribution channel. First, let's start with our exclusive agencies, American Income, Liberty National and Family Heritage. At American Income, the life premiums were up 5% over the year ago quarter to $451 million. And the life underwriting margin was up 18% to $261 million.

我們有信心，我們的代理商團隊將繼續壯大，我們的目標是到 2030 年擁有超過 28,000 名專屬代理商，年銷售額達到 14 億美元。現在我將逐一介紹各個分銷管道。首先，讓我們從我們的獨家代理商開始：American Income、Liberty National 和 Family Heritage。美國收入保險公司的人壽保險保費比去年同期成長了 5%，達到 4.51 億美元。人壽保險承保利潤率成長了 18%，達到 2.61 億美元。

In the third quarter of 2025, net life sales were $97 million, flat compared to a year ago. But as a reminder, we had a difficult comparable this quarter as American Income had a 19% increase in life sales in the year ago quarter. The average producing agent count for the third quarter was 12,230 up 2% from a year ago. We are currently focused on initiatives to enhance our recruiting as growth in agent count will lead to future sales growth. At Liberty National, the life premiums were up 5% over the year ago quarter to $98 million, and the life underwriting margin was up 57% to $70 million.

2025 年第三季度，人壽保險淨銷售額為 9,700 萬美元，與去年同期持平。但需要提醒的是，本季我們面臨一個比較困難的比較數據，因為美國收入保險公司的人壽保險銷售額比去年同期成長了 19%。第三季平均經紀人數量為 12,230 人，比去年同期成長 2%。我們目前正專注於加強招募工作，因為代理商數量的成長將帶動未來的銷售成長。Liberty National 的人壽保險保費比去年同期增加了 5%，達到 9,800 萬美元，人壽保險承保利潤增加了 57%，達到 7,000 萬美元。

Net life sales were $24 million, flat from the year ago quarter, and net health sales were $8 million, up 4% from the year ago quarter. Average producing agent count for the third quarter was 3,847, up 1% from a year ago. We have a few initiatives underway that we expect to have a near-term positive impact. We have developed a new worksite enrollment platform designed to improve agent productivity and training. In addition, we are in the process of rolling out a new recruiting CRM which will further enable the use of data and analytics to enhance the recruiting process.

人壽保險淨銷售額為 2,400 萬美元，與去年同期持平；健康保險淨銷售額為 800 萬美元，比去年同期成長 4%。第三季平均經紀人數量為 3,847 人，比去年同期成長 1%。我們正在推進幾項舉措，預計這些舉措將在短期內產生正面影響。我們開發了一個新的工作場所註冊平台，旨在提高代理人的工作效率和培訓效果。此外，我們正在推出新的招募客戶關係管理系統，這將進一步利用數據和分析來改善招募流程。

I continue to be optimistic about the future growth of this agency. At Family Heritage, the health premiums increased 10% over the year ago quarter to $119 million, and the health underwriting margin increased 49% to $51 million. Net health sales were up 13% to $33 million, and this is due to an increase in agent count and productivity. The average producing agent count for the third quarter was 1,553, up 9% from a year ago. And this is 5 consecutive quarters of strong agent count growth for family heritage.

我對本機構未來的發展依然保持樂觀。Family Heritage 的健康保險費比去年同期增加了 10%，達到 1.19 億美元，健康保險承保利潤增加了 49%，達到 5,100 萬美元。淨健康銷售額成長 13% 至 3,300 萬美元，主要歸功於代理商數量和生產力的提高。第三季平均經紀人數量為 1,553 人，比去年同期成長 9%。這是家族傳承公司連續第五個季度實現代理人數強勁成長。

The continued focus of the past few years on recruiting and growing agency middle management has produced significant momentum and results. Now let's move on to our direct-to-consumer channel. In our DTC division of Globe Life, the life premiums were down 1% over the year ago quarter to $245 million while the life underwriting margin increased 29% to $114 million. While the life premiums were down slightly this quarter, net life sales were $27 million, up 13% from the year ago quarter. I'm very pleased to see this continued sales turnaround from the declining trend of recent years.

過去幾年，我們持續專注於招募和培養機構中階管理人員，並取得了顯著的進展和成果。現在我們來看看我們的直接面向消費者管道。在我們 Globe Life 的 DTC 部門，人壽保險保費較上年同期下降 1% 至 2.45 億美元，而人壽保險承保利潤增長 29% 至 1.14 億美元。雖然本季人壽保險保費略有下降，但人壽保險淨銷售額為 2,700 萬美元，比去年同期成長了 13%。我很高興看到銷售額扭轉了近年來的下滑趨勢，並持續回升。

As we mentioned on our last call, we have implemented new technology to enhance our underwriting process. This technology is helping improve the conversion of customer inquiries into sales. Now as a reminder, the value of our direct-to-consumer business is not only those sales directly attributable to this channel, but the significant support that is provided to our agency business through brand depressions and sales leads.

正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我們已經實施了新技術來改善我們的核保流程。這項技術有助於提高客戶諮詢轉換為銷售的轉換率。再次提醒大家，我們直接面向消費者的業務的價值不僅在於該通路直接帶來的銷售額，還在於透過品牌推廣和銷售線索為我們的代理商業務提供的巨大支持。

We expect this division to generate approximately 1 million leads during 2025, which will be provided to our three exclusive agencies. Improved conversion of our direct-to-consumer leads across the enterprise allows us to increase our marketing spend and increase direct-to-consumer lead volume and marketing campaigns, which leads to sales growth in both our DTC and agency channels.

我們預計該部門在 2025 年將產生約 100 萬條銷售線索，這些線索將提供給我們的三家獨家代理商。透過提高企業內直接面向消費者的銷售線索轉換率，我們可以增加行銷支出，增加直接面向消費者的銷售線索數量和行銷活動，從而促進 DTC 和代理商管道的銷售成長。

United American is our General Agency division, and here, the health premiums increased 14% over the year ago quarter to $170 million, driven by the sales growth and Medicare supplement rate increases we have discussed previously. Health underwriting margin was $16 million, up $2 million from the year ago quarter. Strong activity across the entire agency resulted in net health sales of $25 million, an increase of approximately $9 million over the year ago quarter. Now I'd like to discuss projections. And based on the trends we are seeing, we expect the average producing agent count trends for the full year 2025 to be as follows: at American Income, an increase of around 2%, at Liberty National, an increase of around 4% and family heritage, an increase of around 8%.

United American 是我們的總代理部門，該部門的健康保險費比去年同期增長了 14%，達到 1.7 億美元，這主要得益於我們之前討論過的銷售增長和醫療保險補充費率的提高。健康險承保利潤為 1,600 萬美元，比去年同期增加 200 萬美元。整個機構的強勁業績使得淨健康銷售額達到 2,500 萬美元，比去年同期成長了約 900 萬美元。現在我想談談預測。根據我們目前看到的趨勢，我們預期 2025 年全年各家保險公司的平均代理人數趨勢如下：American Income 成長約 2%，Liberty National 成長約 4%，Family Heritage 成長約 8%。

We Net life sales for the full year 2025 are expected to be as follows: American Income, an increase of around 3%, Liberty National, an increase of around 1% and direct-to-consumer, an increase of around 4%. Net health sales for the full year 2025 are expected to be as follows: Liberty National, flat family heritage, an increase of around 13%, United American, an increase of around 50%. Now let's move on to projections for 2026. And at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect sales growth for the full year to be as follows. For net life sales, we expect American income to have mid-single-digit growth Liberty National high single-digit growth; direct-to-consumer, low single-digit growth.

我們預期 2025 年全年淨人壽保險銷售額如下：美國收入保險成長約 3%，自由國民保險成長約 1%，直接面向消費者的保險成長約 4%。預計 2025 年全年淨健康銷售額如下：Liberty National，持平；Family Heritage，成長約 13%；United American，成長約 50%。現在讓我們來看看2026年的預測。根據我們預測的中位數，我們預計全年銷售成長如下。對於人壽保險淨銷售額，我們預計美國收入將實現中等個位數成長，Liberty National 將實現高個位數成長；直接面向消費者將實現低個位數成長。

For net health sales, we expect Liberty National to have high single-digit growth; Family Heritage, low double-digit growth; and United American mid-single-digit growth. I'll now turn the call back to Frank.

對於淨健康銷售額，我們預計 Liberty National 將實現高個位數成長；Family Heritage 將實現低兩位數成長；United American 將實現中個位數成長。現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Matt. We will now turn to investment operations. Excess investment income, which we define as net investment income less only required interest was $37 million down approximately $3 million from the year ago quarter. Net investment income was $286 million in the quarter, slightly above last year's third quarter. The low growth of net investment income is consistent with the low growth in average invested assets.

謝謝你，馬特。接下來我們將討論投資業務。超額投資收益（我們將其定義為淨投資收益減去所需的利息）為 3,700 萬美元，比去年同期減少了約 300 萬美元。本季淨投資收益為 2.86 億美元，略高於去年第三季。投資淨收益成長緩慢與平均投資資產成長緩慢相一致。

Required interest is up approximately 1% over the year ago quarter, relatively consistent with the growth in average policy liabilities. As a reminder, the growth in average invested assets and average policy liabilities is lower than normal, primarily due to the impact of the annuity reinsurance transaction in the fourth quarter of last year, which involved approximately $460 million of annuity reserves being transferred to a third party along with supporting invested assets. Net investment income was also negatively impacted in the current quarter by lower average earned yield as compared to a year ago. For the full year 2025, we expect net investment income to be flat and required interest to grow around 2%, resulting in a decline in excess investment income of around 10% to 15% for the year. The growth in average invested assets for the full year is lower than normal due to the impact of the previously mentioned annuity reinsurance transaction as well as higher dividend distributions from the insurance companies to the parent.

所需利息較去年同期成長約 1%，與平均保單負債的成長基本一致。需要提醒的是，平均投資資產和平均保單負債的成長低於正常水平，這主要是由於去年第四季年金再保險交易的影響，該交易涉及將約 4.6 億美元的年金準備金連同相關的投資資產轉移給第三方。本季淨投資收益也受到負面影響，平均殖利率較去年同期下降。預計 2025 年全年淨投資收益將保持不變，所需利息將增加約 2%，導致當年超額投資收益下降約 10% 至 15%。由於前面提到的年金再保險交易的影響，以及保險公司向母公司支付的較高股息分配，全年平均投資資產的成長低於正常水準。

Now regarding our investment yield. In the third quarter, we invested $279 million in fixed maturities, primarily in the municipal and industrial sectors. These investments were at an average yield of 6.33%, an average rating of A+ and an average life of 29 years. We also invested approximately $86 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnerships with debt-like characteristics and an average expected cash return of approximately 9%. None of our direct investments in commercial mortgage loans involve office properties.

現在來說說我們的投資報酬率。第三季度，我們投資了 2.79 億美元用於固定期限投資，主要投資於市政和工業領域。這些投資的平均收益率為 6.33%，平均評級為 A+，平均期限為 29 年。我們還投資了約 8,600 萬美元用於具有債務特徵的商業抵押貸款和有限合夥企業，平均預期現金回報率約為 9%。我們對商業抵押貸款的直接投資均不涉及辦公物業。

These non-fixed maturity investments are expected to produce additional cash yield over our fixed maturity investments while still being in line with our conservative investment philosophy. For the entire fixed maturity portfolio, the third quarter yield was 5.26%, up 1 basis point from the third quarter of 2024. As of September 30, the fixed maturity portfolio yield was 5.28%. Including the investment income from our commercial mortgage loans, limited partnerships and corporate owned life insurance investments, the third quarter earned yield was 5.46%. While we do own some floating rate investments, they are well matched with floating rate liabilities on the balance sheet.

這些非固定期限投資預計將比我們的固定期限投資產生額外的現金收益，同時仍符合我們保守的投資理念。整個固定期限投資組合第三季殖利率為 5.26%，比 2024 年第三季上漲 1 個基點。截至9月30日，固定期限投資組合報酬率為5.28%。包括商業抵押貸款、有限合夥企業和公司擁有的人壽保險投資的投資收益在內，第三季的收益率為 5.46%。雖然我們確實持有部分浮動利率投資，但它們與資產負債表上的浮動利率負債非常吻合。

Now regarding the investment portfolio. Invested assets are $21.5 billion, including $18.9 billion of fixed maturities and amortized cost. Of the fixed maturities, $18.5 billion are investment grade with an average rating of A-. Overall, the total fixed maturity portfolio is rated A-, same as a year ago. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio has a net unrealized loss position of $1.1 billion due to the current market rates being higher than the book yield on our holdings.

現在來說說投資組合。投資資產為 215 億美元，其中包括 189 億美元的固定到期資產和攤提成本。在這些固定到期債券中，有 185 億美元是投資等級債券，平均評級為 A-。總體而言，固定期限投資組合的整體評級為 A-，與一年前相同。由於目前市場利率高於我們持股的帳面收益率，我們的固定期限投資組合存在11億美元的未實現淨虧損。

As we have historically noted, we are not concerned by the unrealized loss position and it is mostly interest rate driven internally relates entirely to bonds with maturities that extend beyond 10 years. We have the intent and, more importantly, the ability to hold our investments to maturity. Bonds rated BBB comprised 43% of the fixed maturity portfolio compared to 46% from the year ago quarter. This percentage is at its lowest level since 2003. As we have discussed on prior calls, we believe the BBB securities we acquire generally provide the best risk-adjusted, capital-adjusted returns due in part to our ability to hold securities to maturity regardless of fluctuations in interest rates or equity markets.

正如我們過去所指出的，我們並不擔心未實現的損失，這主要是利率驅動的，完全與期限超過 10 年的債券有關。我們有意願，更重要的是，有能力持有我們的投資直到到期。評級為 BBB 的債券佔固定期限投資組合的 43%，而去年同期為 46%。這一比例為2003年以來的最低水準。正如我們在先前的電話會議中討論的那樣，我們相信，我們收購的 BBB 級證券通常能提供最佳的風險調整後、資本調整後的回報，部分原因是無論利率或股票市場如何波動，我們都能持有證券直至到期。

While the percent of our invested assets comprised of BBB bonds might be a little higher than some of our peers, remember that we have little or no exposure to other high-risk assets such as derivatives, equities, residential mortgages, CLOs and other asset-backed securities. Below investment-grade bonds remain at historical lows at $455 million compared to $556 million a year ago. The percentage of below investment grade bonds to total fixed maturities is just 2.4%, are below investment-grade bonds as a percent of equity, excluding AOCI, are at their lowest level in over 30 years. While there is uncertainty as to where the US economy is headed, we are well positioned to withstand a significant economic downturn due to holding historically low percentages of invested assets in BBB and below investment-grade bonds.

雖然我們投資資產中 BBB 級債券的比例可能比一些同業略高，但請記住，我們幾乎沒有或根本沒有投資其他高風險資產，例如衍生性商品、股票、房屋抵押貸款、CLO 和其他資產支持證券。投資等級以下債券仍處於歷史低位，為 4.55 億美元，而一年前為 5.56 億美元。低於投資等級的債券佔固定期限債券總額的比例僅為 2.4%，低於投資等級的債券佔權益（不包括其他綜合收益）的比例為 30 多年來的最低水準。儘管美國經濟走向尚不明朗，但由於我們持有的 BBB 級及以下投資等級債券的投資資產比例處於歷史低位，因此我們有能力抵禦嚴重的經濟衰退。

In addition, due to the long duration of our fixed policy liabilities, we invest in long-dated assets. As such, a critical and foundational part of our investment philosophy is to invest in entities that can survive through multiple economic cycles. In addition, we have very strong underwriting profits and long-dated liabilities so we will not be forced to sell bonds in order to pay claims. With respect to our anticipated investment acquisitions for the full year 2025, at the midpoint of our full year guidance, we assume investment of approximately $800 million to $850 million in fixed maturities at an average yield of around 6.4%. And approximately $300 million to $400 million in commercial mortgage loans and limited partnership investments with debt-like characteristics and an average expected cash return of 7% to 9%.

此外，由於我們的固定保單負債期間較長，我們投資於長期資產。因此，我們投資理念的關鍵和基礎部分是投資於能夠經受多個經濟週期考驗的實體。此外，我們擁有非常強勁的承保利潤和長期負債，因此我們不會被迫出售債券來支付賠款。就我們預期 2025 年全年的投資收購而言，在我們全年指引的中點，我們假設投資約 8 億美元至 8.5 億美元用於固定期限投資，平均收益率約為 6.4%。還有約 3 億至 4 億美元的商業抵押貸款和有限合夥投資，具有類似債務的特徵，平均預期現金回報率為 7% 至 9%。

Also at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect the average yield earned on the fixed maturity portfolio to be around 5.27% for the full year 2025 and approximately 5.29% for the full year 2026. With respect to our commercial loans, limited partnerships and corporate-owned life insurance, we anticipate the yield impacting net investment income to be in the range of 7% to 8% for 2025 and 2026. In total, including these additional investments, we anticipate the blended earned yield to be approximately 5.45% in 2025 and in the range of 5.4% to 5.5% in 2026. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom for his comments on capital and liquidity.

此外，根據我們的預期，2025 年全年固定期限投資組合的平均收益率約為 5.27%，2026 年全年約為 5.29%。就我們的商業貸款、有限合夥企業和公司擁有的人壽保險而言，我們預計 2025 年和 2026 年影響淨投資收益的收益率將在 7% 至 8% 之間。綜上所述，包括這些額外投資在內，我們預期 2025 年綜合收益率約為 5.45%，2026 年綜合收益率在 5.4% 至 5.5% 之間。現在我將把電話交給湯姆，請他談談資本和流動性問題。

Thanks, Frank. First, I'll spend a few minutes discussing our available liquidity, share repurchase program and capital position. The parent began and ended the quarter with liquid assets of approximately $105 million. We anticipate concluding the year with liquid assets in the range of $50 million to $60 million. In the third quarter, the company repurchased approximately 840,000 shares of Global Life Inc.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。首先，我將花幾分鐘時間討論我們可用的流動資金、股票回購計畫和資本狀況。該母公司季度初和季度末的流動資產約為 1.05 億美元。我們預計年底流動資產將在 5,000 萬美元至 6,000 萬美元之間。第三季度，該公司回購了約 840,000 股 Global Life Inc. 的股票。

common stock for a total cost of approximately $113 million at an average share price of $134.17. Including shareholder dividend payments of $22 million for the quarter, the company returned approximately $135 million to shareholders during the third quarter and approximately $580 million year-to-date. We expect share repurchases will be approximately $170 million and anticipate distributing approximately $20 million to our shareholders in the form of dividend payments in the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter, share repurchases are higher than previously anticipated as we recently received approval for an extraordinary dividend from one of our subsidiaries, which will be -- which we anticipate will be available to support additional share repurchases by the parent. At the midpoint of our guidance, we anticipate share repurchases will total $685 million in 2025.

以每股 134.17 美元的平均價格發行普通股，總成本約為 1.13 億美元。加上本季支付給股東的 2,200 萬美元股息，該公司在第三季向股東返還了約 1.35 億美元，今年迄今返還了約 5.8 億美元。我們預計股票回購金額約為 1.7 億美元，並預計在第四季以股息的形式向股東分配約 2,000 萬美元。第四季股票回購額高於先前預期，因為我們最近獲得了旗下子公司的特別股利批准，我們預計這筆資金將用於支持母公司進行額外的股票回購。根據我們的預期，2025 年股票回購總額將達到 6.85 億美元。

In addition, we intend to distribute approximately $85 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends. We will continue to use our cash as efficiently as possible. We still believe that share repurchases provide the best return of yield to our shareholders over other available alternatives. Thus, we anticipate share repurchases will continue to be the primary use of the parent's excess cash flow after payment of shareholder dividends. The parent company's excess cash flow, as we define it, results primarily from the dividends received by the parent from its subsidiaries less the interest paid on debt and is available to return to its shareholders in the form of dividends and through share repurchases.

此外，我們計劃以股利的形式向股東分配約 8,500 萬美元。我們將繼續盡可能有效率地利用現金流。我們仍然認為，與其他可行的投資方式相比，股票回購能為我們的股東帶來最佳的收益回報。因此，我們預計在支付股東股利後，母公司剩餘現金流的主要用途仍將是股票回購。我們所定義的母公司超額現金流主要來自母公司從其子公司收到的股利減去支付的債務利息，並可以以股利和股票回購的形式返還給股東。

We continue to invest in our growth through investments in sales, technology and the insurance operations. It should be noted that the cash received by the parent company from our insurance operations is after our subsidiaries have made substantial investments during the year to issue new insurance policies, implement new technologies, enhance operational capabilities, and modernize existing information technology as well as to acquire new long-duration assets to fund their future cash needs. Financial strength is paramount to our company's success, and we believe the $500 million contingent capital funding arrangement established early in this quarter, will add to our already strong capital generation capabilities that exist within our insurance companies. Now with regard to capital levels at our insurance subsidiaries. Our goal is to maintain capital within our insurance operations at levels necessary to support our current ratings.

我們將繼續透過投資銷售、技術和保險業務來促進自身發展。需要注意的是，母公司從保險業務中獲得的現金，是在我們子公司在當年進行大量投資之後獲得的，這些投資包括發行新的保險單、實施新技術、提高營運能力、更新現有資訊技術以及購買新的長期資產以滿足其未來的現金需求。財務實力對我們公司的成功至關重要，我們相信本季初設立的 5 億美元應急資本融資安排，將增強我們保險公司已有的強大資本創造能力。現在來說說我們保險子公司的資本水準。我們的目標是維持保險業務的資本水平，以維持我們目前的評級。

To do that, Global Life targets a consolidated company action level RBC ratio in the range of 300% to 320%. Although the target range is lower than many of our peers, it is appropriate given the stable premium revenue from the large number of in-force policies, the nature of our protection products with benefits that are not sensitive to interest rates or equity markets. Our conservative investment portfolio and strong consistent underwriting margins, which result in consistent statutory earnings at our insurance companies. As we do every quarter, we performed stress tests on our investment portfolio under multiple economic scenarios, anticipating various levels of downgrades and defaults. If all estimated losses under our stress tests were to occur before year-end, which we believe is highly unlikely, we have concluded that we have sufficient capital resources exist within our subsidiaries and the parent to maintain our target RBC range and our share repurchases as planned.

為此，環球人壽的目標是將公司整體行動水準的 RBC 比率控制在 300% 至 320% 的範圍內。儘管目標範圍低於許多同行，但考慮到大量有效保單帶來的穩定保費收入，以及我們的保障產品性質（其收益不受利率或股票市場的影響），這樣的目標範圍是合適的。我們穩健的投資組合和強勁且穩定的承保利潤率，使我們的保險公司能夠獲得穩定的法定收益。與每個季度一樣，我們對投資組合進行了壓力測試，模擬了多種經濟情景，以應對不同程度的評級下調和違約。即使我們壓力測試中估計的所有損失都在年底前發生（我們認為這種情況極不可能發生），我們也得出結論，我們的子公司和母公司擁有足夠的資本資源，可以維持我們的目標 RBC 範圍並按計劃進行股票回購。

For 2025, we intend to maintain our consolidated RBC within the target range of 300% to 320%. As previously discussed, we continue to progress towards establishing a Bermuda reinsurance affiliate for the purpose of reinsuring a portion of new business and in-force life insurance policies issued by Global Life affiliates. We currently estimate parent excess cash flow will increase from incremental earnings from our US and Bermuda subsidiaries over time as the reinsurance block grows. This additional excess cash flow will enhance the financial strength of the company and provide additional flexibility, allowing the company to meet various capital and liquidity needs of the parent.

2025 年，我們計劃將合併後的紅血球比率維持在 300% 至 320% 的目標範圍內。如前所述，我們將繼續推動在百慕達設立再保險附屬公司，以便為環球人壽附屬公司簽發的部分新業務和有效人壽保險保單提供再保險。我們目前預計，隨著再保險業務的成長，母公司超額現金流將隨著我們美國和百慕達子公司的增量收益而增加。這筆額外的盈餘現金流將增強公司的財務實力，並提供更大的靈活性，使公司能夠滿足母公司的各種資本和流動性需求。

We continue to make progress on the required regulatory filings and subject to approvals, we anticipate executing the first reinsurance transaction by the end of 2025, and we will provide an additional update on our next call. Now with respect to policy obligations for the current quarter. Each year, GAAP accounting requires us to review and generally update actual assumptions for mortality, morbidity and lapses. We have chosen to review and update as necessary both our life and health reserve assumptions in the third quarter each year. The remeasurement exhibit included in our supplemental financial information available on our website includes the impact of these assumption changes as well as experience related remeasurement gains and losses by distribution channel.

我們在必要的監管文件方面持續取得進展，如果獲得批准，我們預計將在 2025 年底前完成第一筆再保險交易，我們將在下次電話會議上提供更多最新資訊。現在來說說本季的政策義務。每年，GAAP會計準則要求我們審查並更新死亡率、發病率和失效率的實際假設。我們選擇在每年第三季審查並根據需要更新我們的生命和健康儲備假設。我們網站上提供的補充財務資訊中包含的重新計量附錄包含了這些假設變化的影響，以及按分銷管道劃分的經驗相關重新計量損益。

When assumption changes are made, GAAP accounting standards require a cumulative catch-up adjustment going back to January 1, 2021, the transition date for LDTI. This cumulative catch-up is the assumption related remeasurement gain or loss. An assumption remeasurement gain lowers the reserve balances and indicates an improved outlook as less premium is needed to fund reserves to meet future policy obligations. The opposite is true if there is an assumption to remeasurement loss. For the quarter, the overall impact of both life and health assumption changes reduced policy obligations by $134 million, with life obligations reduced by $131 million and health obligations reduced by approximately $3 million, indicating an anticipation of an improved outlook for future policy obligations.

當假設發生變化時，GAAP 會計準則要求進行累積追溯調整，追溯至 2021 年 1 月 1 日，即 LDTI 的過渡日期。這種累積追趕是與重新計量相關的假設收益或損失。假設重估收益會降低準備金餘額，表示前景改善，因為為滿足未來政策義務而需要的保費減少，準備金也會相應減少。如果假設存在重新測量損失，則情況則相反。本季度，人壽和健康保險假設變化的總體影響使保單義務減少了 1.34 億美元，其中人壽保險義務減少了 1.31 億美元，健康保險義務減少了約 300 萬美元，這表明預計未來保單義務的前景將有所改善。

To put this into perspective, total GAAP life and health reserves on our balance sheet are approximately $19 billion, so the adjustment to reserves is less than 1%. To better understand the performance of the business, we think it is beneficial to look at normalized underwriting margins, which exclude the impact of assumption changes and provide an improved basis for comparison of quarterly results. For the third quarter, normalized life underwriting margin as a percent of premium was 41.5% compared with 40.4% for the year ago quarter, which is a notable improvement and reflects recent favorable mortality experience. Normalized health margin as a percent of premium was 27.2% compared with 27.5% for the year ago quarter. For the Health segment, as expected, health margins as a percent of premium continued to increase from the first half of the year.

為了更直觀地理解這一點，我們資產負債表上的 GAAP 人壽和健康保險準備金總額約為 190 億美元，因此準備金調整不到 1%。為了更了解業務表現，我們認為查看正常化的承保利潤率是有益的，正常化的承保利潤率排除了假設變化的影響，並為季度業績的比較提供了更好的基礎。第三季度，經調整的壽險承保利潤率佔保費的百分比為 41.5%，而去年同期為 40.4%，這是一個顯著的改善，反映了近期良好的死亡率情況。經過調整後的健康保險利潤率佔保費的百分比為 27.2%，去年同期為 27.5%。正如預期的那樣，健康保險業務的利潤率佔保費的百分比較上半年繼續增長。

This is largely driven by margin increases from the Medicare supplement business as 2025 premium rate changes became fully effective. So now with respect to guidance for 2025. For the full year 2025, we estimate net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $14.40 to $14.60, representing 17% growth at the midpoint of our range and 11% growth when excluding the impact from assumption updates in both '24 and '25. The midpoint is higher than our previous guidance due to the anticipation of continued favorable mortality experience. Finally, with respect to 2026 guidance.

這主要是由於 2025 年保費率調整全面生效後，醫療保險補充業務的利潤率有所提高。那麼現在來談談2025年的指導方針。我們預計 2025 年全年每股攤薄淨營業收益將在 14.40 美元至 14.60 美元之間，按我們預測範圍的中點計算，增長 17%；若不考慮 2024 年和 2025 年假設更新的影響，則增長 11%。由於預期死亡率數據將繼續向好，因此中點數值高於我們先前的預期。最後，關於 2026 年的指導。

For the full year 2026, we estimate net operating earnings per diluted share will be in the range of $14.60 to $15.30 representing 3% growth at the midpoint of the range. The growth rate is lower than historical averages given the significant impact of the assumption updates in 2025. At the midpoint of our guidance, we anticipate total premium revenue growth of 6% to 7%, with life premium revenue growth growing 4% to 5% and health premium revenue growing 9% to 11%. We anticipate underwriting margins as a percent of premium to be in the range of 40% to 43% for life and 24% to 27% for health. We anticipate net investment income growth will be approximately 3%.

我們預計 2026 年全年每股攤薄淨營業收益將在 14.60 美元至 15.30 美元之間，按區間中點計算，成長 3%。鑑於 2025 年假設更新的重大影響，成長率低於歷史平均值。根據我們的預期，總保費收入成長6%至7%，其中人壽保費收入成長4%至5%，健康保費收入成長9%至11%。我們預期人壽保險的承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 40% 至 43% 之間，健康保險的承保利潤率佔保費的百分比將在 24% 至 27% 之間。我們預計淨投資收益成長率約為3%。

Although 2025 statutory results are not final for the year, we anticipate parent excess cash flows available to return to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases in 2026 will be approximately $600 million to $700 million. This is greater than the amount available in 2025, excluding the impact of extraordinary dividends. On the next call, I'll provide an update as we get updated statutory results for 2025 and after we finalized the initial reinsurance transactions for the new Bermuda subsidiary. Those are my comments, and now I'll turn it back to Matt.

儘管 2025 年的法定業績尚未最終確定，但我們預計，2026 年母公司可用於透過分紅和股票回購返還給股東的超額現金流約為 6 億至 7 億美元。不計特殊股利的影響，這比 2025 年的可用金額還要大。下次電話會議上，我會提供最新情況，屆時我們將獲得 2025 年的最新法定結果，並且我們將完成新百慕達子公司的初始再保險交易。以上就是我的看法，現在我把麥克風交還給馬特。

Thank you, Tom. Those are our comments, and we will now open the call up for questions.

謝謝你，湯姆。以上就是我們的評論，現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Jack Matten, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）傑克·馬滕，BMO資本市場。

First question was just on the life sales growth of the exclusive agencies. Just wondering is there anything you're seeing or hearing from customers since driving more muted sales growth in recent quarters? Is the challenge really around agent productivity given that you currently have a higher mix of newer agents? And I guess looking forward, what gives you confidence that life sales growth can reaccelerate in the coming quarters?

第一個問題是關於專屬代理商的壽險銷售成長。想問一下，在最近幾季銷售成長放緩的情況下，您有沒有從客戶那裡聽到或看到什麼回饋？鑑於目前新經紀人的比例較高，真正的挑戰是否在於經紀人的生產力？展望未來，是什麼讓您有信心未來幾季人壽保險銷售成長能夠再次加速？

Yes. Thanks, Jack, for the question. It's not anything we're hearing from a consumer perspective as we talk with our agency owners. We're actually seeing an improvement in the premium on a per sale basis. And so we're not seeing any demand weakening from a consumer perspective.

是的。謝謝你的提問，傑克。在我們與代理商老闆的交談中，我們沒有從消費者的角度聽到任何類似的說法。實際上，我們看到單筆銷售的溢價有所改善。因此，從消費者的角度來看，我們沒有看到任何需求減弱的跡象。

It really does get back to agent count growth. And what I'd point to is usually followed years that follow significant growth years, we do temper the growth a little bit as we get those new agents onboarded. Start producing, and then they start moving into the middle management ranks. And then the middle managers out there in the field are responsible for a lot of the recruiting, training and onboarding. And so as I've mentioned before, one of the things we look at is just our whole recruiting pipeline.

歸根究底，還是經紀人數量的成長問題。我想指出的是，通常在經歷了顯著成長的幾年之後，我們會稍微放緩成長速度，以便讓新代理商順利加入。他們先開始生產產品，然後逐步晉升到中階管理職。然後，第一線的中階管理人員負責大量的招募、培訓和入職工作。正如我之前提到的，我們關注的重點之一就是整個招募流程。

What we're talking about on the call on our agent count is those agents that are actually up and producing for us. But we look at what the agents are in the pipeline coming in as they get onboarded and licensed and trained, et cetera. And so our hires for AIL are actually up this quarter by 17%. And so this is individuals that have started into the process there in the process of taking exams, getting their licenses and in the move forward into training and selling their first policy. And so it's a good leading indicator for us.

我們在電話會議上討論的經紀人數量，指的是那些實際在崗並為我們創造績效的經紀人。但我們會關注那些正在進入職涯發展階段的代理人，看他們如何完成入職、取得執照、接受培訓等等。因此，本季我們AIL的招募人數實際上增加了17%。因此，這些人已經開始進入這個過程，參加考試，獲得執照，並繼續接受培訓，最終銷售他們的第一份保單。因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的領先指標。

And so some of those trends are what we're seeing that gives us the confidence that 2026 will have a higher agent count growth, which bodes well for sales growth for 2026 as well as we've looked at some of our incentive programs and just getting our middle management focused on growing the agent count by recruiting activities and onboarding also plays into our consideration for our sales growth guidance.

因此，我們看到的一些趨勢讓我們有信心，2026 年代理商數量將出現更高的成長，這對 2026 年的銷售成長也是個好兆頭。此外，我們也檢視了一些激勵計劃，並讓中階主管專注於透過招募活動和入職培訓來增加代理商數量，這也影響了我們對銷售成長預期的考量。

Got it. And my follow-up on excess cash flow. I think you said that the guidance for next year is $600 million to $700 million. I mean, does that include any assumption or an incorporation of a benefit from Bermuda entity? I guess related to, you thought out, I think, an extraordinary dividend this quarter.

知道了。以及我對盈餘現金流的後續跟進。我想你說過，明年的業績預期是 6 億至 7 億美元。我的意思是，這是否包括對來自百慕達實體的任何利益的假設或納入？我想這可能與你考慮過本季發放特別股息有關。

Any other updates you can or color you can provide on that? I think it looks like you sort of the buyback guide for the full year by $50 million or $60 million. So just making sure I have the numbers right there.

還有其他更新資訊或補充說明嗎？我認為你似乎已經制定了全年回購計劃，金額在 5000 萬美元到 6000 萬美元之間。所以，我只是想確認一下這些數字是否正確。

Yes. Thanks, Jack. The $600 million to $700 million does not include any benefit from the Bermuda affiliate. We -- it takes at least two accounting periods. The rules require two accounting periods for reception jurisdictions.

是的。謝謝你，傑克。這 6 億至 7 億美元不包括來自百慕達附屬公司的任何收益。我們——這至少需要兩個會計期間。規則要求接收管轄區有兩個會計期間。

So we think the earliest time at this point would be 2027. And as I mentioned on prior calls, we'll try -- we'll work with and try to get recipe jurisdiction earlier, but it's just really not up to us. It's really up to the regulators to accept receptible jurisdiction status.

所以我們認為，目前來看最快也要到 2027 年。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，我們會努力——我們會與相關方合作，爭取更早獲得配方管轄權，但這真的不是我們能決定的。是否接受受管轄權地位，最終取決於監管機構。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

First question, just kind of following up on JAK about the sales growth outlook and the recruiting outlook. You mentioned, Matt, on the comments earlier that you've got a newer worksite enrollment platform new recruiting CRM with different kinds of data and analytics, there are two things. They sound very interesting. Could you elaborate a little bit more on that and how they work and why they're different and why they'll have an impact?

第一個問題，只是想跟進一下 JAK 關於銷售成長前景和招募前景的問題。Matt，你之前在評論中提到，你有一個更新的工作場所註冊平台，一個新的招募 CRM，具有不同類型的資料和分析功能，有兩件事。聽起來很有趣。您能否再詳細解釋一下，它們是如何運作的，為什麼它們有所不同，以及為什麼它們會產生影響？

Sure. So Liberty, as you may recall, about 75% of our business is marketed at work sites for those smaller employers. And we've rolled out -- or we're in the process of rolling out technology that's a new enrollment platform, and it really takes some of the lessons that we've learned in our processes on our individual sales and it really where an agent sits down with the client and really goes through and you've heard us talk about a needs-based analysis. And so on the worksite side, put some more tools in the hands of our agents where they sit down with the customer, go through their needs and help customize a package appropriate for them of the various different coverages and types of policies. And as I said, we're early on and rolling that out, but on the first few agencies that we've rolled that out, we've seen significant increase in premium production on a per worksite basis as well as just a per sale basis.

當然。所以，Liberty，您可能還記得，我們​​大約 75% 的業務都是在工作場所為那些小型雇主行銷的。我們已經推出——或者說我們正在推出一項新的招生平台技術，它真正吸取了我們在個人銷售流程中學到的一些經驗教訓，在這個平台上，代理人會與客戶坐下來，真正地進行分析，你們也聽我們說過，這是基於需求的分析。因此，在工作場所方面，我們要為我們的代理人提供更多工具，讓他們與客戶坐下來，了解他們的需求，並幫助他們定制適合他們的各種不同保險範圍和保單類型的方案。正如我所說，我們目前還處於早期階段，正在逐步推廣，但在我們率先推廣的幾家代理商中，我們看到，無論是按工作場所還是按銷售額計算，優質產品產量都顯著增加。

And it exceeds 20-plus percent on the increase there. And so we anticipate as that gets rolled out across the entire agency, which will take into the beginning of next year, that's really going to be a tailwind for our worksite sales growth there. And then the recruiting CRM system, right now, a lot of our agencies are tracking that manually with spreadsheets and those type of things.

那裡的增幅超過了20%。因此我們預計，隨著這項措施在整個機構推廣開來（這將持續到明年年初），這將真正促進我們工作場所銷售的成長。至於招募 CRM 系統，目前我們許多代理商都是用電子表格之類的工具手動追蹤招募資訊。

And so just like a sales CRM system, the recruiting CRM system is going to have all of that data in one place to be able to for our agency owners and those middle managers to be able to have the data and the analytics they need to really understand their recruiting pipeline, much more on a real-time basis so they can see what's happening during the week as people start listening to our opportunity, come back for the different interviews, get through the various phases of taking the test, getting licensed and ultimately producing. And so what we've seen with some of our agencies that utilize more of a system that they've developed on their own, it's definitely an improvement for them to be able to manage all of that activity.

因此，就像銷售 CRM 系統一樣，招聘 CRM 系統會將所有數據集中在一個地方，以便我們的代理商老闆和中層管理人員能夠獲得所需的數據和分析，從而真正了解他們的招聘流程，並且能夠更實時地了解情況，以便他們能夠看到一周內發生的事情，例如人們開始了解我們的機會、回來參加不同的面試、完成考試的各個業績階段、獲得最終許可和最終取得成績。因此，我們看到一些機構更多地利用他們自己開發的系統，這無疑對他們管理所有這些活動來說是一種改進。

And so we're designing a system that will be enterprise-wide, roll that out to the organization. And it will just give us a more real-time view into the recruiting pipeline and being able to manage the various conversion points that happen throughout the life cycle of a new person coming into the organization and getting up and producing.

因此，我們正在設計一個企業級系統，並將其推廣到整個組織。這將使我們能夠更即時地了解招募流程，並能夠管理新員工加入組織、開始工作並產生業績的整個生命週期中發生的各種轉換點。

Sounds very impactful. And then my follow-up is still on the sales area, direct-to-consumer. And I think the stats you mentioned on the call were that while sales in direct-to-consumer were up 13%, premiums were down 1%. I'm kind of curious maybe a mesh of a question here. I'm kind of curious as to the policy retention ratio in direct-to-consumer?

聽起來很有影響力。然後我的後續工作仍然是銷售領域，也就是直接面向消費者的銷售。我認為您在電話會議上提到的統計數據是，雖然直接面向消費者的銷售額增長了 13%，但保費下降了 1%。我有點好奇，這或許是個比較複雜的問題。我對直接面向消費者的保單續保率有點好奇？

And then secondly, you mentioned low single-digit sales in direct-to-consumer next year. Is that just because you're going to you're having a really good second half of 2025 that you want to get too aggressive?

其次，您提到明年直接面向消費者的銷售額將只有個位數成長。是因為你預計2025年下半年業績會非常好，所以才想採取過於激進的策略？

Yes. Let me address your first part of that question. Related to -- if you think about it, we've got a big in-force block. And so we've been discussing sales declines for quite some time over the last couple of years. And so those sales declines are hitting that our premium growth rate.

是的。讓我來回答你問題的第一部分。相關問題－如果你仔細想想，我們目前面臨一個很大的阻礙。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在討論銷售額下滑的問題。因此，這些銷售下滑正在影響我們的高端產品成長率。

And so we've only had two quarters now of positive sales growth, and it's been very strong and we anticipate that continuing. So the premium earnings are going to turn around as we continue to have positive sales growth. But that's just kind of the dynamic you're looking at from this quarter's perspective. And so we're very pleased. As we mentioned, this is technology and processes we've been working on for quite some time.

因此，我們目前只有兩個季度實現了正銷售成長，而且成長勢頭非常強勁，我們預計這種勢頭將持續下去。隨著銷售額持續成長，保費收入也將改善。但這只是從本季的角度來看，我們所看到的動態。因此我們非常高興。正如我們所提到的，這項技術和流程我們已經研究了相當長一段時間。

they're coming to market here in Q2 and Q3, we're seeing the results. And so we're -- we've got very strong results here. And so we're just kind of cautiously optimistic is we're, at this point, before we see what fourth quarter looks like as we think about next year. And so I'd just say that's a good estimate right now based on what we're seeing early days. We'll certainly modify that as we have Q4 experience.

它們將在第二季和第三季上市，我們已經看到了成效。所以，我們——我們在這裡取得了非常出色的成果。所以，在看到第四季的情況之前，我們對明年持謹慎樂觀的態度。所以，根據我們目前觀察到的情況來看，我認為這是一個比較合理的估計。我們肯定會根據第四季的經驗對此進行修改。

But obviously, we've got a pretty good lift here in the last half of this year. And so we just want to be a little bit cautious about what we think at this early stage for 2026.

但很顯然，今年下半年我們取得了相當大的進步。因此，在目前這個階段，我們對 2026 年的看法想保持一些謹慎。

Andrew, one thing I'd just like to tack on to that is really the decline in the premium growth rate here that we're seeing in 2025 really has more to do with those -- the declining sales that we've been seeing here in the recent periods. Really, if you look at the lapse rates for DTC overall, they're pretty consistent with our long-term averages. We've actually seen very good lapse rates, favorable lapse rates, if you will, in our renewal. Once the policies have been on the books here for several years, really seeing with our renewal premium seeing a little bit higher in some of the first year the last few quarters. But again, it's really stabilized when you look at it overall, it's pretty consistent with our long-term rates.

Andrew，我想補充一點，我們看到的 2025 年保費增長率下降，實際上更多地與我們最近一段時間看到的銷售額下降有關。實際上，如果你看一下 DTC 的整體流失率，它們與我們的長期平均值相當一致。實際上，我們的續保率非常低，可以說是非常理想的續保率。這些保單已經生效幾年了，我們的續保保費在第一年和最近幾季確實略有上漲。但從整體來看，它確實很穩定，與我們的長期利率相當一致。

And then I think with -- as we're getting a little bit of that ability, as Matt was talking about, reinvesting some of those dollars and improving those sales we really do anticipate some growth in premium -- overall premium income in 2026. And then assuming that, that continues on with growth in that low to mid-single digits on the sales side, and that will help to bring up the premium growth then as well.

然後我認為，隨著我們逐漸具備這種能力，正如 Matt 所說，我們將把一些資金再投資，提高銷售額，我們確實預計 2026 年保費收入將有所增長。然後假設銷售額繼續保持低至中等個位數的成長，這將有助於提高高端產品的成長。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

I had a couple of questions. Maybe first just on your 2025 guidance. If we look at what that's implying for EPS in 4Q, it seems like it's 325 to 345. So that's a lower number than you've had in the most recent quarter even at the high end, if you take out the remeasurement gain. So wondering if you're seeing anything in the business that suggests you to be conservative? Or just any color on sort of the guidance -- the implied guidance for 4Q?

我有幾個問題。或許可以先從你們2025年的指導方針開始。如果我們看一下這對第四季每股盈餘 (EPS) 意味著什麼，似乎在 325 到 345 之間。即使扣除重新測量帶來的收益，這個數字也比最近一個季度的最高值要低。所以我想知道，您在業務中是否看到任何跡象表明您應該採取保守的做法？或只是用某種顏色來表示業績指引──也就是第四季業績的隱含指引？

Thanks, Jimmy, for the question. Yes, the $0.05 raise reflects the favorable third quarter results and anticipated fourth quarter results. One thing I'd say is third quarter, we benefited a little bit from timing on a couple of items. So for instance, we had a research and development tax credit that came through in the third quarter that we had planned for the full year, but just the timing was favorable to us. The other thing is that really mortality experience was really very favorable in the third quarter.

謝謝你的提問，吉米。是的，此次加薪 0.05 美元反映了良好的第三季業績和對第四季業績的預期。我想說的是，第三季度，我們有幾個專案的時間表讓我們受益匪淺。例如，我們原本計劃全年都會申請研發稅收抵免，但第三季到達的這項抵免恰好對我們有利。另一方面，第三季的死亡率情況確實非常樂觀。

And you kind of can see that from -- we expected remeasurement gains, but the remeasured gain life, excluding assumption updates was $18 million. So that's indicative of a pretty favorable quarter. And we -- to us, it's a fluctuation at this point. We'd love to see that emerge in 2024, but it's not really -- sorry, in the fourth quarter, but it's not really in our guidance for the fourth quarter. And that would -- if it does come through, that would put us, I think, at the higher end of our guidance range.

從我們預期的重新計量收益來看，新計量收益（不包括假設更新）為 1800 萬美元。所以這表示本季業績相當不錯。而我們——對我們來說，目前這只是一種波動。我們很希望在 2024 年看到這種情況出現，但實際上——抱歉，在第四季度，但這確實不在我們的第四季度預期之內。如果真的實現了，我認為，這將使我們的預期達到指導範圍的上限。

The other thing is health experience was very favorable as well in the third quarter that we really wouldn't expect that to continue in the fourth quarter either for both life and health. Fourth quarter claims tend to tick up a little bit just from a seasonal perspective, where we're starting to get in the flu season for life and then at the end of the year, people start to give the doctor a little bit more and try to get some of those medical visits in. So we do see a little bit of an uptick oftentimes in the fourth quarter. So those are some of the things impacting kind of our fourth quarter EPS expectations, but I'm glad to see that we also raise the guidance by $0.05 at the midpoint.

另一方面，第三季的健康體驗也非常有利，但我們預計第四季無論是人壽保險還是健康保險，這種情況都不會持續下去。從季節性角度來看，第四季度的索賠往往會略有上升，因為我們開始進入流感季，然後在年底，人們開始更多地去看醫生，並試圖進行一些醫療就診。因此，我們經常在第四季度看到一些成長。以上這些因素影響了我們對第四季每股收益的預期，但我很高興地看到，我們也把預期中位數提高了 0.05 美元。

Okay. And then secondly, could you comment on what you're expecting in terms of name trends and sales in the health business. There's obviously been a lot of concern about margin compression at some of the major medical companies in various products.

好的。其次，您能否談談您對健康產業的名稱趨勢和銷售狀況的預期？顯然，一些大型醫療公司在各種產品方面都面臨著利潤率壓縮的問題，這引起了人們的廣泛關注。

Your margins had gone down too, but they seem to be recovering. Should we assume that, that continues into 2026 as you implement price hikes? Or -- and then similarly, with a lot of companies indicating that they're going to raise prices on met advantage plans do you -- are you seeing that happen? And how is that affecting demand for your metaproduct?

你們的利潤率也下降了，但現在似乎正在回升。我們是否可以假設，隨著你們實施價格上漲，這種情況會持續到 2026 年？或者——同樣地，很多公司都表示要提高醫療保險優勢計劃的價格，你——你看到這種情況發生了嗎？這會對貴公司元產品的需求產生怎樣的影響？

I'll start first, Jimmy, on the health trends is we're really pleased with the third quarter with Medicare supplement and the group retiree health trends. They are favorable to our expectations, which is great. And we've really seen the medical trend claim cost trends really flatten, which is actually a nice sign for us. So we actually have built in the experience that we saw late in the fourth quarter of -- third and fourth quarter of 2024 as well as the experience we've seen in the first half of 2025 into our rate increase requests to regulators, and we really believe that those rate increases will bring us back to target profitability. Again, those get implemented throughout 2026.

吉米，我先來談談健康趨勢，我們對第三季的醫療保險補充計畫和團體退休人員健康趨勢非常滿意。它們符合我們的預期，這太好了。我們已經看到醫療索賠成本趨勢確實趨於平緩，這對我們來說實際上是一個好兆頭。因此，我們實際上已經將 2024 年第三季末和第四季度以及 2025 年上半年的經驗納入了我們向監管機構提出的加價申請中，我們真心相信這些加價將使我們重回盈利目標。這些措施將在 2026 年陸續實施。

So in the first quarter, I think it's going to look a little bit more like 2025, but in the second, third and fourth quarter of '26, I think we'd see an increase in margins just because of the rate increases becoming effective then.

所以，我認為第一季的情況會更像 2025 年，但在 2026 年的第二、第三和第四季度，我認為我們會看到利潤率上升，僅僅是因為利率上漲屆時生效。

And then, Tom, it's fair to say that recent experiences we're just kind of seeing trend moderate a little bit. We had some acceleration of that in Q3 and Q4 of last year.

湯姆，公平地說，最近的情況表明，這種趨勢有所緩和。去年第三季和第四季，這種情況有所加速。

Exactly. Certainly, third quarter trend moderated.

確切地。第三季的成長趨勢確實有所放緩。

And then, Jimmy, to answer your second part of your question, yes, we're seeing that related to the Med Advantage, which we don't write. As you know, the market that is providing a tailwind as price increases happen or carriers pull out of the market. It's definitely been a tailwind for us. It's hard to say now what 2026 will look like. That's why we kind of have a moderate growth, considering the significant sales growth that we've had for 2025.

然後，吉米，回答你問題的第二部分，是的，我們看到這種情況與 Med Advantage 有關，而 Med Advantage 並非我們寫的。如您所知，隨著價格上漲或營運商退出市場，市場正在提供順風。這對我們來說絕對是順風。現在很難說2026年會是什麼樣子。這就是為什麼考慮到我們 2025 年的銷售額大幅成長，我們的成長速度相對溫和的原因。

And so really, we need to see what happens here over the next quarter or two. But right now, I do believe it will be a tailwind for us to continue to grow those sales in a profitable way, as Tom mentioned, related to our price actions. But there's a lot of dynamics, as you know, going on in that market. And so things change quite a bit. But currently, I think we're getting some benefit from a lot of that disruption that's going on in the Medicare Advantage space.

所以，我們真的需要看看接下來一兩個季度會發生什麼。但就目前而言，我相信這將有利於我們繼續以盈利的方式成長銷售額，正如湯姆所提到的那樣，這與我們的價格策略有關。但正如你所知，這個市場有很多動態因素在起作用。所以事情發生了很大的變化。但目前，我認為我們正在從聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃領域正在發生的許多變革中受益。

John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

約翰·巴尼奇，派珀·桑德勒。

So my question is around health. The performance and production in the third quarter wasn't really that far off from the level you produced in the fourth quarter of a year ago. And I know there's in seasonality, it would really occur in the fourth quarter, and I understand you updated your sales assumptions. But this is more of a broader question. What are you seeing in the distribution environment and we all have parents in the baby boomer generation is aging?

所以我的問題是關於健康方面的。第三季的業績和產量與去年第四季的水平並沒有太大差距。我知道這其中存在季節性因素，這種情況通常會在第四季度發生，我也了解到你們更新了銷售假設。但這其實是一個更廣泛的問題。您認為分銷環境如何？我們所有人的父母都是嬰兒潮世代，他們正在老化。

Is there a portion of the cohort that more and more is a need on our products that will be secular in nature and more extended beyond just what we've seen in recent years?

是否有一部分人群越來越需要我們的產品，這種產品具有世俗性質，並且其應用範圍比我們近年來所看到的要廣泛得多？

Well, like I said, I just kind of go back to the conversation around where to the extent that there is -- Medicare Advantage has been growing for quite some time with just the appeal from a -- I think from a pricing perspective, some of those were offered at very low premiums or if not virtually free. And so I think now with some of what's happening on the profitability side, you see carriers increasing the rates.

嗯，就像我說的，我只是想回到之前的討論，關於醫療保險優勢計劃（M​​edicare Advantage）的現狀——該計劃已經發展了相當長一段時間，其吸引力在於——我認為從定價的角度來看，其中一些計劃的保費非常低，甚至幾乎是免費的。所以我覺得，鑑於目前獲利方面的情況，你會看到航空公司提高費率。

And so we kind of have a different customer in the Medicare supplement space where people are willing to pay for choice and willing to pay to keep their providers or be able to have the freedom of choice to go to who they want to. And so I think that will always be there for a segment. There's, of course, a segment of the market that was kind of on the bubble that may move back and forth depending on when they sign up what's appealing at that point. But I think there will always be a place for Medicare Advantage from our product portfolio perspective.

因此，我們在醫療保險補充領域擁有不同的客戶群體，他們願意為選擇權付費，願意付費留住他們的醫療服務提供者，或能夠自由選擇他們想去的醫療服務提供者。所以我認為這種情況會一直存在一段時間。當然，有一部分市場處於搖擺不定的狀態，他們的立場可能會隨著簽約時間的推移而搖擺不定，這取決於當時什麼對他們有吸引力。但我認為，從我們的產品組合角度來看，Medicare Advantage 總是會有一席之地。

Medicare Supplement.

醫療保險補充計劃。

Oh, sorry, Medicare Supplement, excuse me. I think there will always be that opportunity for us. It just as we've seen over a long period of time, we've been in this business forever. It ebbs and flows just a little bit with what's going on in the overall broader market. So we feel good from a long-term perspective, but just recognize there's going to be short-term disruption as we have pricing and competitive pressures in that marketplace.

哦，抱歉，是醫療保險補充計劃，不好意思。我認為我們總是會有這樣的機會。正如我們長期以來所看到的，我們一直從事這個行業。它會隨著整體市場的波動而略有起伏。從長遠來看，我們感覺良好，但也意識到短期內會受到市場價格和競爭壓力的影響。

I do think there's some demographic characteristics of growing retirement a number of people that are in retirement and those that are retiring over the next few years is also a favorable dynamic that will support continued product sales.

我認為，隨著退休人口數量的增長，未來幾年退休人口的增加以及即將退休的人口數量上升，這在一定程度上構成了一個有利的動態，將有助於產品的持續銷售。

My follow-up question. Shortly after the last call, the DOJ and SEC investigations have concluded. Is the EEOC investigation still ongoing? And what's your visibility into that taking care of itself?

我的後續問題。最後一次通話後不久，司法部和證券交易委員會的調查就結束了。美國平等就業機會委員會的調查仍在進行中嗎？你如何看待這個問題自行解決的可能性？

As a reminder, the EEOC findings are not binding the litigation has to actually be initiated, and there is no pending litigation. So I don't really have anything to update from that perspective is just -- it's kind of status quo.

再次提醒，美國平等就業機會委員會的調查結果不具約束力，訴訟必須實際啟動，而目前沒有正在進行的訴訟。所以從這個角度來看，我沒有什麼需要更新的，一切都維持現狀。

Yes. And John, I would just remind you that the courts have with respect to just the whole independent contract or employee issue, the courts have addressed this issue in the past several times with regard to AIL sales agents and have always found that they have been appropriately classified. So if there are any lawsuits, we would vigorously defend those.

是的。約翰，我只想提醒你，關於獨立合約或員工問題，法院過去曾多次處理過 AIL 銷售代理的此類問題，並且一直認為他們的分類是恰當的。所以，如果出現任何訴訟，我們將全力應訴。

Joel Hurwitz, Dowling & Partners.

Joel Hurwitz，Dowling & Partners。

Tom, on excess cash flow generation, the $600 million to $700 million is above the $500 million to $600 million run rate you mentioned a few quarters ago. I guess, what's the driver of the increase there? And is that level sustainable going forward before factoring in Bermuda benefits?

湯姆，關於超額現金流的產生，6億至7億美元高於你幾季前提到的5億至6億美元的運行率。我想，造成這種成長的驅動因素是什麼？在不考慮百慕達帶來的利益之前，這種水準能否持續下去？

Yes. Thanks. I really do believe that it is sustainable. I think it's indicative of the improving trends that we've seen in mortality. To the extent that health margins continue to improve, that will be a tailwind for future years.

是的。謝謝。我真心相信它是可持續的。我認為這表明我們所看到的死亡率趨勢正在改善。如果醫療保障水準持續提高，將對未來幾年有利。

And I also I think the investment income environment or the investment yield environment, '25 was more favorable than 2024. So as long as that stays consistent, I think we'll also benefit from higher yields going forward.

而且我認為，2025 年的投資收益環境或投資報酬率環境比 2024 年更有利。只要這種情況保持不變，我認為我們未來也會受益於更高的收益率。

Yes. Then I would just remind you that the $500 million to $600 million range that I think Tom has talked about on prior calls was the amounts available for shareholders or share repurchases after dividends. And when Tom is talking about the $600 million to $700 million that is the total excess cash flow. And so if you assume around $80 million, $85 million of dividends, shareholder dividends being paid out of that, that brings you back into the mid-$500 million consistent with what Tom had talked about before.

是的。那麼我只想提醒各位，湯姆在先前的電話會議中提到的 5 億至 6 億美元範圍，是指在支付股息後可供股東使用或用於股票回購的金額。湯姆所說的 6 億至 7 億美元指的是全部超額現金流。因此，假設從中支付約 8,000 萬美元、8,500 萬美元的股息，即股東分紅，那麼總額就回到了 5 億美元左右，這與湯姆之前所說的一致。

Got it. That makes sense. And then just a follow-up. In terms of the '26 guidance and the margin guidance for Life, does that factor in any expectation for remeasurement gains?

知道了。這很有道理。然後還有一個後續問題。就 2026 年業績指引和人壽保險利潤率指引而言，是否考慮了任何重新計量收益的預期？

Yes, thanks. The -- with mortality, we just updated assumptions. As I mentioned, third quarter remeasurement gains, excluding the assumption update impact were very favorable as well, right? So we do expect that the -- our assumptions that our mortality is performing. We're getting mortality results, which are better than our assumptions, and we anticipate that mortality experience to continue into 2026, which we would then expect continued remeasurement gains relative to the assumptions that we just set.

好的，謝謝。關於死亡率，我們剛剛更新了假設。正如我之前提到的，第三季重新計量收益（不包括假設更新的影響）也非常可觀，對吧？所以我們確實預期——我們的假設，即我們的死亡率正在發揮作用。我們得到的死亡率結果比我們的假設要好，我們預計這種死亡率趨勢將持續到 2026 年，屆時我們預計相對於我們剛剛設定的假設，重新測量結果將繼續改善。

And so I think the important thing, I think, to pay attention to is what are the obligation ratios that are emerging. And are those obligation ratios staying similar to what we've seen in the third quarter. And I think that those -- that really is kind of the more -- the thing that I pay attention to more. I think as we see remeasurement gains, if we see continued positive remeasurement gains I think that's a leading indicator that we might have an assumption change. And so I think that's kind of what I would take from looking at remeasuring gains themselves.

所以我認為，需要關注的重要事情是，正在出現的債務比率是什麼。這些債務比率是否與第三季的情況類似？而且我認為，這些——這才是真正讓我更加關注的事情。我認為，隨著重新測量結果的改善，如果我們看到重新測量結果持續向正成長，我認為這預示著我們的假設可能會改變。所以我覺得，從重新衡量收益本身來看，這大概就是我想得出的結論。

But the absolute number that I pay attention to would be policy obligations and I'd normalize those policy obligations for assumption updates.

但我真正關注的絕對數字是保單義務，我會將這些保單義務標準化以進行假設更新。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

Wes Carmichael，自主研究。

Just wanted to circle back to Bermuda real quick. Just curious has there been any progress with the BMA or other regulators? And should we expect any change to your expectations on uplift to free cash flow or the timing there? I think you had previously mentioned $200 million and maybe that's in 2027, but I just wanted to see if that still stands?

只是想簡單再提一下百慕達。只是好奇，與BMA或其他監管機構的交涉是否有任何進展？那麼，您對自由現金流成長的預期或成長時間是否會有任何變化？我記得你之前提到過 2 億美元，也許那是 2027 年的目標，但我只是想確認一下這個數字現在是否仍然有效？

Yes. Previous comments were $200 million trending over time. So over time, to $200 million of benefit. We have -- Bermuda has approved our business plan. We have started -- we've established the company.

是的。先前的評論提到，金額會隨著時間增加 2 億美元。因此，隨著時間的推移，將帶來 2 億美元的收益。百慕達已經批准了我們的商業計劃。我們已經起步了——我們已經成立了公司。

We're going through the licensing process, and we're going through US regulatory approvals for the reinsurance transactions and the transfer of assets to the new entities. So we're in the middle of the approval process. And once we get that, then we can actually execute on that first reinsurance transaction.

我們正在辦理許可證，並且正在獲得美國監管機構對再保險交易和向新實體轉移資產的批准。我們現在正處於審批流程中。一旦我們獲得這些信息，我們就可以真正執行第一筆再保險交易了。

And John, I would think that we haven't seen anything at this point in time that would really change what we said with respect to amount of timing at this point. I think as we kind of get the final approvals, I think we should be pretty close to being able to really give a little bit more guidance early next year on what that kind of looks like and maybe a little bit more sense of what that timing might be too.

約翰，我認為目前為止我們還沒有看到任何會真正改變我們之前對時間安排的看法的事情。我認為，隨著最終審批的完成，我們應該能夠在明年初就具體情況給予更多指導，並可能對時間安排給予更清晰的說明。

Got it. And second question, I just wanted to come back to your comments on floating rate exposure. I think you mentioned that assets and liabilities are well matched. But how should we think about sensitivity of your NII if we get additional Fed cuts from here?

知道了。第二個問題，我想再次回應您關於浮動利率風險敞口的評論。我想你之前提到過資產和負債匹配良好。但如果聯準會繼續降息，我們該如何看待淨利息收入的敏感度呢？

Yes. I think it's around $1 million that -- for a 1% change in the short-term rates.

是的。我認為，短期利率每變動 1%，損失大約是 100 萬美元。

But I also think that there's a -- the geography of the change is -- happens in a few places, which is required interest would also go down a little bit if short-term rates went down. And then we have a floating rate debt as well, which would also go down as well. So we'd see a little bit reduction in financing costs, which is part of one of the offsets. So Frank, your $1 million is really a combination of the two. Yes.

但我認為，這種變化的地理分佈也存在一些問題——這種變化發生在少數幾個地方，因此，如果短期利率下降，所需的利息也會略微下降。此外，我們還有浮動利率債務，這部分債務也會隨之下降。因此，我們會看到融資成本略有下降，這是抵銷因素之一。所以弗蘭克，你的100萬美元實際上是這兩方面的總和。是的。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

Ryan Krueger，KBW。

I just had a couple of quick ones. Can you give us a couple more details on your 2026 guidance in terms of admin expenses and excess NII growth?

我只是匆匆吃了兩口。您能否就2026年的管理費用和淨利息收入成長預期提供更多細節？

Yes, Brian. I think admin expenses, we still expect to be around 7.3% of premium, so very stable with in 2025. So we're pleased with respect to that. And then with respect to net investment income, we probably see being up around 3% and required interest probably being a little bit higher than that, closer to maybe a little bit closer to 4%.

是的，布萊恩。我認為管理費用，我們預計仍將佔保費的 7.3% 左右，因此在 2025 年之前將非常穩定。所以在這方面我們感到滿意。至於淨投資收益，我們預期成長幅度在 3% 左右，而所需利息可能會略高一些，接近 4%。

Got it. And then for the -- I guess, what did you assume for buybacks? I assume it's just the $600 million to $700 million of free cash flow minus the $85 million dividend, just want to confirm.

知道了。那麼—我想問的是，您對股票回購有什麼假設？我猜想就是6億至7億美元的自由現金流減去8500萬美元的股息，只是想確認一下。

Yes, I think that's a reasonable way of looking at it. Yes. I think that's right. And then it's really, again, fairly well spread out over the course of the year at this point in time with respect to the buyback. One thing else I would know, Ryan, is that you think about -- bring the conversation around some of the floating rates, we do anticipate that interest.

是的，我認為這是合理的看待問題的方式。是的。我覺得是對的。而且，就目前的回購計劃而言，它確實已經相當均勻地分散到全年的各個階段。瑞安，我還想說的是，你可以考慮浮動利率問題，我們預期大家會對此感興趣。

Our financing costs will be down a little bit next year as compared to 2025. Just given some of the floating rate exposure we have there on the CD balances and our term loan. We do -- we just follow the economists forecast with respect to what the expectations are around those changes in the short-term rates.

與 2025 年相比，我們明年的融資成本將略有下降。考慮到我們在定期存款餘額和定期貸款方面存在一些浮動利率風險敞口。沒錯——我們只是遵循經濟學家對短期利率變化的預期預測。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

I guess my first question, given, I guess, your comments around share repurchase as well as, I guess, the plan outlined for next year. it feels like, I guess, M&A is still less likely, but I was just hoping to get some updated thoughts there.

鑑於您之前關於股票回購的評論以及您提出的明年計劃，我的第一個問題是：併購的可能性似乎仍然較小，但我還是希望能得到一些最新的看法。

Yes. I would say M&A is always in our minds, it's not foremost, if you will, and that we're feel compelled that we have to do on M&A transactions. So we're very comfortable with our ability to grow organically. And so with our baseline as we think about guidance, we anticipate that the excess cash flows would, in fact, be used for share repurchases. Now if an opportunity came along, that provided us a better return and a better answer to our shareholders than using that money for share repurchases then we would clearly divert some of that money and make a good positive acquisition.

是的。我會說，併購始終是我們考慮的重點，雖然它並非首要任務，但我們感到有義務在併購交易中這樣做。因此，我們對自身的有機成長能力非常有信心。因此，根據我們的基準，在考慮績效指引時，我們預期多餘的現金流量實際上將用於股票回購。如果出現一個機會，能夠為我們提供比用這筆錢回購股票更好的回報，並更好地滿足股東的需求，那麼我們顯然會挪用部分資金進行一次好的收購。

I think as we think about M&A, it's still really being very focused on opportunities that really improve the core of who we are around being able to provide protection-oriented products in the middle and lower middle income markets. And we really distribution that comes along with that ability. So it's something that we feel that we can come in and help to grow much like the acquisition family heritage been over 10 years ago now, but an organization that is really hitting its stride as far as continuing to grow. So we'll also look for opportunities that there are for -- to help us within our operations and to make those operations more efficient, but that becomes from the value proposition there that we'd be looking for.

我認為，當我們考慮併購時，仍然要非常專注於那些能夠真正改善我們核心業務的機會，即在中低收入市場提供以保障為導向的產品。我們確實能夠很好地利用這種能力進行分銷。所以，我們覺得我們可以加入並幫助它發展壯大，就像 10 多年前收購家族企業一樣，但這個組織在持續發展方面真的步入了正軌。因此，我們也會尋找機會來幫助我們改善運營，提高營運效率，但最終取決於我們所追求的價值主張。

And then I guess my second question, just given the focus right on agent recruitment, would you expect, I guess, the sales guidance in life to be more back-end weighted? Or I guess, maybe there's some easier comps to start the year. Just if you could kind of help us think about the cadence there?

那麼我的第二個問題是，鑑於目前重點放在代理人招募上，您是否認為，銷售指導在生活中會更加專注於後端？或者，我猜，也許年初會有一些比較容易的比賽。你能不能幫我們想想那裡的節奏？

Sure. As we've talked about before, it's definitely a momentum game with the agent count being a leading indicator for the sales growth. So early Q4 is good for us. And then as you might imagine, around the holidays and things like that, there's a little bit of slowdown and then picks up back again mid-January and moving forward. So the first quarter of the year definitely has an impact of determining what the entire year looks like.

當然。正如我們之前討論過的，這絕對是一場勢頭之戰，代理商數量是銷售成長的領先指標。所以第四季初對我們來說是個好兆頭。然後，正如你可能想的那樣，在假日期間，業務會稍微放緩一些，然後在 1 月中旬再次回升並持續發展。因此，第一季的表現無疑會對全年的走勢產生影響。

We're seeing some good, as I've mentioned, positive momentum from our hires, which is a leading indicator for new agents. And so we've got hires up at 15% at Liberty and 17% up at AIOs compared to a year ago. And so I think that bodes well for where we're at for Q4 and leading into Q1 of next year. But there is typically a quarter or two lag, I'll say, between good increase in agent count growth and the sales growth comes as some of those agents get onboarded, producing and get a little bit more experienced. But I do agree with you also.

正如我之前提到的，我們的招募工作取得了一些良好的積極進展，這對新經紀人來說是一個重要的指標。因此，與一年前相比，Liberty 的招聘人數增加了 15%，AIOs 的招聘人數增加了 17%。所以我認為這預示著我們第四季以及明年第一季都將迎來良好的開端。但通常來說，經紀人數量大幅成長與銷售額成長之間會有一到兩個季度的滯後，因為部分經紀人需要時間熟悉業務、累積經驗並開始獲利。但我同意你的看法。

I have to kind of go back and look at -- we're talking about quarter-over-quarter. You got to look at comps from the prior year quarters to kind of really think through that. But right now, as we had indicated, I think Liberty is set up well to have high single-digit growth next year in AIL in that mid-single-digit growth range.

我得回顧一下——我們說的是季度環比數據。你需要參考上年同期的數據才能真正想清楚。但正如我們之前所指出的，我認為 Liberty 目前已做好充分準備，明年 AIL 的成長率預計將達到個位數中段。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

Suneet Kamath，傑富瑞集團。

First question, just in your prepared remarks, you talked about an extraordinary dividend. I was just curious if you could size that. And was that a 2025 event? Or is that something that's going to show up in 2026?

第一個問題，您在事先準備好的發言稿中提到了特別股息。我只是好奇你能不能量一下尺寸。那是2025年的活動嗎？或者說，這是2026年才會出現的事？

Yes, it was a 2025 event and it was $80 million.

是的，那是2025年的活動，耗資8000萬美元。

Got it. And then I guess on this whole remeasurement mortality thing. I guess the way I think about it, and maybe I'm wrong, is every third quarter, you true-up your assumptions to your best estimates. But if you expect that mortality will still continue to improve or remain favorable, why would that not be in your best estimates at this point?

知道了。然後，我想說說重新測量死亡率這件事。我的想法是（也許我錯了），每隔三個季度，你就需要將你的假設修正為你最好的估計。但如果您預期死亡率將繼續改善或保持良好水平，為什麼這不屬於您目前的最佳估計呢？

I think we just really want to see it emerge quarter-to-quarter before we actually put it into our valuation assumptions. There's been some discussion about did we have a pull forward of deaths from the pandemic. And so we're just patient in making those changes into our overall long-term assumptions. So again, they're long-term assumptions. And so we do see short-term trends that actually influence us in our judgments, but we want to really focus on kind of where we believe the long term is.

我認為我們真的需要看到它逐季度地顯現出來，然後再將其納入我們的估值假設中。有人討論過，疫情是否提前導致了更多死亡病例。因此，我們只需耐心地將這些改變納入我們的整體長期假設中。所以，這些都是長期假設。因此，我們確實會看到一些短期趨勢會影響我們的判斷，但我們真正想關注的是我們認為的長期趨勢。

Yes. To me, that's the key. It's very much a long term over the life of the business assumption and we can have differences in the short run that are different from that. And I think Thomas' fair assessment is that we're fairly close to kind of pre-pandemic levels from a long-term assumption perspective. But some of our recent experience is actually more favorable than that. So we're reluctant to move it back to a short-term very favorable position at this point.

是的。對我來說，這才是關鍵。這是一個著眼於企業生命週期的長期假設，短期內可能會出現與此不同的情況。我認為托馬斯的評估是合理的，從長遠來看，我們已經相當接近疫情前的水平了。但我們最近的一些經驗實際上比這更有利。因此，我們目前不願意將其拉回短期內非常有利的位置。

Tom Gallagher, Evercore ISI.

Tom Gallagher，Evercore ISI。

First question is the long-term assumption changes that were made in 3Q, how much of a go-forward earnings boost is that -- will that result in, in terms of prospective earnings?

第一個問題是，第三季所做的長期假設變化，對未來獲利的提振幅度有多大──就預期獲利而言，這會帶來多大的影響？

Yes. I actually -- I reflected those in my comments around normalized underwriting margins that we saw for the quarter. I think that's a good way to kind of think about the go-forward normalized and also just the range that I gave you for underwriting margins in general for each of the life and health. I think that's a reasonable range for where we see life underwriting income coming in or life under earning margins and help underwriting margins.

是的。實際上——我在關於本季正常化承保利潤率的評論中反映了這些。我認為這是一種很好的方式，可以思考未來的正常化情況，以及我之前給出的壽險和健康險承保利潤率的總體範圍。我認為這是一個合理的範圍，可以解釋我們看到的壽險承保收入、壽險保費利潤率和輔助承保利潤率。

Yes. So Tom, if you look at it back in for 2024, your normalized margins were closer -- a little under 40%. And now we're a little bit closer to 41%. I think Tom noted that maybe 41.5% for Q3 and maybe for the full year, we're closer to 41%. So you see a little bit of that uptick.

是的。所以湯姆，如果你回顧一下 2024 年的情況，你的標準化利潤率更接近——略低於 40%。現在我們離 41% 的目標又更近了一步。我認為湯姆指出，第三季可能是 41.5%，全年可能更接近 41%。所以你會看到這種小幅回升。

And that really comes from having the lower policy obligations as a result of that assumption change.

這實際上是由於假設變化而導致的政策義務降低。

It's exactly right. I mean in 2023, we were 38%. In 2024, we're 39.7%. In 2025, we're right around 41%. It's really demonstrating the significant improvement in mortality we've seen over time.

完全正確。我的意思是，2023年，我們的佔比是38%。到 2024 年，我們將達到 39.7%。到 2025 年，我們大概會達到 41%。這確實體現了我們隨著時間的推移所看到的死亡率的顯著改善。

And so something that as you think about those remeasurement gains, the normal fluctuations, if you will, each quarter as we continue to see positive experience below those long-term assumptions end up with some positive remeasurement gains, but that's really just showing that the book of business is still performing really better than the long-term assumptions and over time just by the nature of the long-term assumptions we wouldn't. We currently anticipate that eventually, they'll kind of revert back to those long-term assumptions. And -- but what we're seeing right now, as Tom was talking about. We do anticipate the trends that we're seeing right now saying that we anticipate those continuing on in '26. As we get more experience as that emerges over time, then we'll either be change of long-term assumptions?

因此，當你考慮這些重新衡量的收益時，你會發現正常的波動，每個季度隨著我們持續看到低於長期假設的積極經驗，最終都會帶來一些積極的重新衡量收益，但這實際上只是表明業務表現仍然比長期假設要好得多，而且隨著時間的推移，僅僅由於長期假設的性質，我們不會這樣做。我們目前預計，最終他們會在某種程度上回歸到那些長期假設。但是——就像湯姆剛才說的那樣，我們現在看到的。我們預計目前看到的趨勢將在 2026 年繼續下去。隨著我們經驗的積累，隨著時間的推移，我們的長期假設要么會改變，要么會改變？

Or do you ultimately have fewer remeasurement gains.

或者最終你的重新測量收益反而更少？

And just relatedly, just to clarify, are there any long-term assumption change benefits embedded in your '26 guidance? Or is it only some assumption of sort of current period measurement gains that you're assuming?

另外，為了澄清一下，你們的 2026 年業績指引中是否包含任何長期假設變更帶來的好處？或者，你只是假設了當前時期測量收益的某種可能性？

Yes. The way we're thinking about that is the range that we've provided. The top end of the range would be indicative of a number of things, but one of those possibilities could be an assumption update that comes through. And so we've tried to factor in, in the scenarios that we look at in determining the range an assumption update of what that might do to the results overall.

是的。我們考慮的方式是，這就是我們提供的範圍。該範圍的上限可能表明很多事情，其中​​一種可能性是假設更新即將到來。因此，我們在考慮各種情況以確定範圍時，試圖將假設更新納入考量，以了解這可能會對整體結果產生什麼影響。

Got you. So high end would have something in it for that?

抓到你了。所以高端產品在這方面會有一些優勢嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

And then just, I guess, final question, if I could, in terms of thinking about I think you mentioned the actuarial assumption update was under 1% of reserves. Just to sort of compare how favorable the remeasurement gains are and quantifying it. I assume they're running well better than 1% of your long-term assumption in terms of current experience. And that's the reason you pointed out that the reserve release was under 1%. Can you quantify how -- like right now, if you just isolate to 3Q, how much more favorable is that running?

然後，我想問最後一個問題，如果可以的話，關於您提到的精算假設更新，我認為更新幅度不到準備金的 1%。只是想比較一下重新測量帶來的效益有多大，並加以量化。根據目前的經驗，我認為他們的表現遠遠超過你長期預期的1%。這就是你指出儲備釋放量低於 1% 的原因。你能量化一下嗎？例如現在，如果只看第三季度，它的運作情況比第三季有利多少？

Is it 3%? Is it 5%? Is it 10%? Can you give sort of indication of comparing 1 versus the other?

是3%嗎？是5%嗎？是10%嗎？能否簡單說明一下兩者之間的比較？

That's a hard question to answer directly. What I'd point to is, again, kind of looking at normalized underwriting margins and normalized policy obligations. And I think that really -- the normalized policy obligations is really the underlying metric that reflects the actual experience that's coming through. And I think that's kind of where I put a little bit of focus as far as looking at those trends.

這個問題很難直接回答。我想指出的是，再次強調，應該關注正常化的承保利潤率和正常化的保單義務。我覺得，真正反映實際經驗的根本指標是──規範化的政策義務。我認為，在觀察這些趨勢方面，我把一些注意力放在了這方面。

And I think the point of the 1% comment was just recognizing that a small change in an assumption can have a decent size impact in the current quarter and -- on a dollar-wise but not 100% of reserve. And it's a cumulative catch-up from the day of transition. And so just slight tweaks and long-term assumptions can have a decent impact. So it's just really reflective of the reserve balances and moving significantly 1%.

我認為 1% 的評論的重點在於認識到，假設的微小變化可能會對當前季度產生相當大的影響——以美元計，但不會 100% 的準備金。這是自過渡日以來的累積追趕工作。因此，只需稍作調整和做出長期假設，就能產生相當大的影響。所以這確實反映了儲備餘額的變化，並且出現了1%的顯著波動。

I think what's also important there is what it's telling us, right, is when we have an adjustment from the assumptions that brings down reserve levels. That said that we have -- and I mentioned in my comments that we have a more favorable outlook of future profits from that business or future that we need less premium to fund the benefits that we have promise to our policyholders. So that's a really, I think, good indication of just kind of how the business is performing and how we think it's going to perform.

我認為同樣重要的是，它告訴我們，當假設發生調整導致儲備水平下降時，會發生什麼。也就是說，正如我在評論中提到的，我們對該業務的未來利潤前景更加樂觀，或者說，我們未來需要支付的保費更少，才能為我們承諾給保單持有人的福利提供資金。所以我認為這很好地表明了公司目前的經營狀況以及我們對公司未來經營狀況的預期。

Maxwell Fritscher, Truist.

Maxwell Fritscher，Truist。

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes. Just further digging into DTC, how does this conversion rate lead to sales compared historically in the same channel? And then is that elevated compared to recent experience in DTC? Or are conversions high historically?

我打電話給馬克·休斯。進一步深入研究 DTC，與同一通路的歷史數據相比，這種轉換率如何轉化為銷售額？那麼，與近期在 DTC 領域的經驗相比，這種情況是否有所改善？或者說，歷史上轉換率一直很高？

Yes. So the technology improvements that we've put in and just process improvements is that keep in mind, direct-to-consumer sale is fairly passive. The customer goes out an application. Well, in some of those instances, based on how they fill out the application, we have follow-up questions or we have information from data perspective related to some medical questions that we need to follow up on. And so there was times when we could not get a hold of a customer.

是的。因此，我們投入的技術改進和流程改進表明，直接面向消費者的銷售相當被動。客戶提交了一份申請。嗯，在某些情況下，根據他們填寫申請表的方式，我們會有一些後續問題，或者從數據角度來看，我們會有一些與醫療問題相關的資訊需要跟進。因此，有時我們會聯絡不上客戶。

And therefore, that policy just never got issued, it pinned it out. And so now with more advanced data and analytics, we knew there was some good risks in there that we want to go ahead and issue but trying to get past some of this friction. And so we're issuing those policies now without really changing our risk profile. So the conversions ratio has gone up just in the last couple of quarters as that's been implemented. And again, that's kind of a onetime adjustment upward for a new conversion ratio that we would expect on a go-forward basis and an improvement.

因此，這項政策根本沒有發布，就此擱置了。因此，現在有了更先進的數據和分析，我們知道其中存在一些我們想要繼續推進並發布的絕佳風險，但我們正在努力克服一些阻力。因此，我們現在發布這些政策，但實際上並沒有改變我們的風險狀況。因此，隨著這項措施的實施，轉換率在最近幾季有所上升。再次強調，這只是對新的轉換率進行的一次性上調，我們期望在未來繼續保持這種轉換率，並有所提高。

The other thing that's going on in the direct-to-consumer channel, though is that as we have a better conversion of those advertising spend across the entire organization. Then you've heard me talk about in the previous quarters, how we scaled back advertising from unprofitable different campaigns. We were able to go back into those campaigns and other campaigns because the profitability metrics have changed because now I'm issuing more policies with the same advertising spend.

不過，在直接面向消費者的管道中，還有另一件事正在發生，那就是我們在整個組織內提高了廣告支出的轉換率。你們也聽我說過，在前幾個季度，我們是如何縮減不盈利的不同廣告活動的投入的。由於獲利指標發生了變化，我們現在可以用相同的廣告支出推出更多政策，因此我們能夠重新進行這些活動和其他活動。

And so that's why I said in my comments that the that program and the conversion of looking at it enterprise-wide, meaning agency and direct-to-consumer allows us to spend more money on advertising, and that's growing sales, both in our direct-to-consumer channel as well as giving more leads and growing sales in our agency channel. And so that's what we're very pleased about is all of those channels working together from a growth perspective.

所以這就是為什麼我在評論中說，該計劃以及從企業整體角度（即代理和直接面向消費者）進行轉變，使我們能夠在廣告上投入更多資金，從而促進銷售增長，無論是在我們的直接面向消費者渠道，還是在我們的代理渠道，都能帶來更多潛在客戶並促進銷售增長。因此，我們非常高興看到所有這些管道從成長的角度來看都能協同運作。

There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Stephen Mota for closing remarks.

隊列中已無其他問題。現在我將把發言權交還給史蒂芬莫塔，請他作總結發言。

All right. Thank you for joining us this morning. Those are our comments, and we will talk to you again next quarter.

好的。感謝您今天早上收看我們的節目。以上就是我們的評論，我們下個季度再與您溝通。

This does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。