Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Guild Holdings Company Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call will be recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 Guild Holdings 公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明） 謹此提醒，本次通話將會被錄音。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部門。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that comments on this conference call may contain certain forward-looking statements regarding the company's expected operating and financial performance for future periods and industry trends. These statements are based on the company's current expectations. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to a number of risks or other factors that are described in greater detail under the section titled Risk Factors in Guild's Form 10-K and 10-Q and in other reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議的評論可能包含某些有關公司未來時期預期營運和財務業績以及行業趨勢的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於公司目前的預期。由於許多風險或其他因素，未來時期的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，這些風險或其他因素在Guild 表格10-K 和10-Q 中標題為“風險因素”的部分中有更詳細的描述。以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告。

Additionally, today's remarks will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures, the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release furnished today with the SEC and are also available on Guild's Investor Relations website.

此外，今天的評論將涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。非 GAAP 財務指標的調節，相應的 GAAP 指標可以在我們今天向 SEC 提供的收益報告中找到，也可以在 Guild 的投資者關係網站上找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Terry Schmidt. Terry?

現在我想將電話轉給執行長特里·施密特。特里？

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results and strategic update. I am joined by our President, David Neylan, as well as our Chief Financial Officer, Amber Kramer. In the third quarter, we continue to adhere to the strategy we have consistently communicated with our focus on the retail purchase market and dedication to customer service, along with continuing to gain market share to position Guild for accelerated growth when the cycle turns. The ongoing industry headwinds in the mortgage market have been well publicized with high rates and prolonged limited housing inventory.

謝謝。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們討論我們的第三季業績和策略更新。我們的總裁 David Neylan 和財務長 Amber Kramer 也加入了我的行列。第三季度，我們繼續堅持我們一貫傳達的策略，專注於零售採購市場，致力於客戶服務，同時繼續獲得市場份額，使Guild在週期轉變時能夠加速成長。抵押貸款市場持續存在的行業逆風已因高利率和長期有限的房屋庫存而廣為人知。

The Federal Reserve aggressively raised the Fed funds rate during 2022 by 425 basis points and further raised it by an additional 100 basis points through July of 2023. Rates have remained unchanged ever since, but future rate changes are uncertain. According to the MBA, existing home sales in Q3 were down an estimated 16% from the prior year, and many homeowners with mortgage rates well below the current rates are choosing not to sell. This lack of supply, coupled with the increase in mortgage rates continues to put a strain on home buying affordability and overall activity. This led to an industry-wide sequential pullback in originations in the third quarter.

聯準會在 2022 年期間大幅將聯邦基金利率提高了 425 個基點，並在 2023 年 7 月之前進一步提高了 100 個基點。此後利率一直保持不變，但未來的利率變化存在不確定性。據 MBA 稱，第三季現有房屋銷售量預計比去年同期下降 16%，許多抵押貸款利率遠低於當前利率的房主選擇不出售。供應不足，加上抵押貸款利率上升，繼續對購屋負擔能力和整體活動造成壓力。這導致第三季全行業的首發數量連續回落。

Our results similarly reflect these challenges, and we anticipate ongoing muted demand in the near term. However, with this backdrop, Guild has maintained its proven approach centered on providing a personalized mortgage borrowing experience delivered by our knowledgeable loan officers and supported by our diverse product offerings. We are a retail distributed growth company, and we leverage our relationship-based loan sourcing strategy to execute on our mission of delivering the promise of homeownership. Furthermore, we are innovative and continue to develop products that not only contribute to the options we have for our customers, but also allows us to expand our outreach in communities we serve.

我們的結果也反映了這些挑戰，我們預期近期需求將持續疲軟。然而，在此背景下，Guild 仍保持其行之有效的方法，以提供個人化的抵押貸款體驗為中心，由我們經驗豐富的信貸員提供，並得到我們多樣化產品的支持。我們是一家零售分散式成長型公司，我們利用基於關係的貸款採購策略來履行我們兌現房屋所有權承諾的使命。此外，我們不斷創新並不斷開發產品，這些產品不僅有助於我們為客戶提供更多選擇，而且還使我們能夠擴大我們所服務社區的影響力。

Our customer relationships are a competitive advantage with our focus on the client life cycle starting at origination and extending through servicing. This focus not only allows us to generate more reliable income, it enables us to build an ongoing asset. We are not about a single transaction. We are about building relationships and being the lender of choice for our customers for all future transactions.

我們的客戶關係是一種競爭優勢，我們專注於客戶生命週期，從最初開始一直延伸到服務。這種關注不僅使我們能夠產生更可靠的收入，還使我們能夠建立持續的資產。我們關注的不是單一交易。我們致力於建立關係並成為客戶未來所有交易的首選貸款人。

We have built a brand in the industry that attracts like-minded companies and loan originators. In this challenging environment, we believe there continues to be consolidation in both M&A and organic originations with Guild increasing market share. We are confident in Guild standing as one of the industry's dominant retail mortgage companies. We have continued to invest in our people and our platform to both drive market share in the near term and to be positioned to accelerate growth when this cycle turns. We are well capitalized and remain confident that we have the right platform, products and people to allow us to deliver on our strategy. Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Neylan. David?

我們在業界建立了一個品牌，吸引了志同道合的公司和貸款發起人。在這個充滿挑戰的環境中，我們相信隨著 Guild 市場份額的增加，併購和有機起源將繼續整合。我們對 Guild 成為業界占主導地位的零售抵押貸款公司之一充滿信心。我們繼續投資於我們的員工和平台，以在短期內提高市場份額，並在這個週期轉變時加速成長。我們資本充足，並堅信我們擁有合適的平台、產品和人員來實現我們的策略。現在我想把它交給 Dave Neylan。大衛？

Thank you, Terry. In the third quarter, we delivered total in-house loan originations of $4.3 billion as expected, slightly down from the $4.5 billion in the second quarter. We anticipate we will see continued pressure on originations in the coming quarters. However, on a relative basis, we benefit from our focus on the purchase mortgage market. In the third quarter, we originated 94% of our closed loan origination volume from purchase business compared to the Mortgage Bankers Association estimate of 82% for the industry. In addition to our organic growth objectives, we have selectively pursued external opportunities to expand the business.

謝謝你，特里。第三季度，我們按預期交付了 43 億美元的內部貸款總額，略低於第二季的 45 億美元。我們預計未來幾季我們將看到原產地持續面臨壓力。然而，相對而言，我們受益於對購屋抵押貸款市場的關注。第三季度，我們 94% 的已關閉貸款發放量來自購買業務，而抵押貸款銀行家協會對該行業的估計為 82%。除了我們的自然成長目標外，我們還選擇性地尋求外部機會來擴展業務。

As previously disclosed, in the third quarter, we acquired First Centennial Mortgage a privately held residential mortgage lender headquartered in Illinois with branches predominantly located in the Midwest. They have a similar culture and platform to Guild, focused 100% on retail, local sales and operational fulfillment and their customer-centric business approach closely aligns with ours. This marked our third external transaction year-to-date. These opportunities exemplify our growth strategy and allow us to achieve several of our strategic objectives that include expanding our presence in existing markets and seamlessly entering new ones. This has allowed us to grow our market share and importantly, as we keep emphasizing, have positioned us for potential accelerated growth as the market returns.

如前所述，我們在第三季收購了 First Centennial Mortgage，這是一家總部位於伊利諾州的私人住宅抵押貸款機構，分公司主要位於中西部。他們與 Guild 有著相似的文化和平台，100% 專注於零售、本地銷售和營運履行，他們以客戶為中心的業務方法與我們的密切一致。這是我們今年迄今的第三筆外部交易。這些機會體現了我們的成長策略，使我們能夠實現一些策略目標，包括擴大我們在現有市場的影響力並無縫進入新市場。這使我們能夠擴大市場份額，重要的是，正如我們不斷強調的那樣，這使我們能夠隨著市場的回歸而實現潛在的加速成長。

As Terry already touched on, the entire industry faces ongoing pressures. However, we remain confident that Guild's strategy that we have always adhered to is the one that will again prove to be successful in this cycle. We will continue to seek to expand our market share. We will selectively pursue adding good companies who share our approach and values, along with organic recruiting and providing our customers with products and service that they have come to expect from Guild. As Amber will discuss, we have prioritized maintaining our balance sheet strength and liquidity, which should allow us to effectively execute on this strategy.

正如特里已經提到的，整個行業都面臨著持續的壓力。然而，我們仍然相信，我們一直堅持的Guild策略將在這個週期中再次被證明是成功的。我們將繼續尋求擴大我們的市場份額。我們將有選擇地尋求增加與我們分享方法和價值觀的優秀公司，同時進行有機招聘，並為我們的客戶提供他們期望從 Guild 獲得的產品和服務。正如 Amber 將討論的那樣，我們優先考慮維持我們的資產負債表實力和流動性，這應該使我們能夠有效地執行這項策略。

I'll now turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Amber to discuss the financials in more detail. Amber?

我現在將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Amber，以更詳細地討論財務狀況。琥珀色？

Thank you, David. As is our standard practice, my comments will focus on sequential quarter comparisons. For the third quarter of 2023, we generated $4.3 billion of total in-house loan originations compared to $4.5 billion in the second quarter. Net revenue totaled $257 million compared to $237 million in the prior quarter, and we generated net income of $54 million compared to $37 million in the second quarter. On a per share basis, our net income was $0.88 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $29 million or $0.48 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $44 million.

謝謝你，大衛。按照我們的標準做法，我的評論將集中在連續季度的比較。 2023 年第三季度，我們的內部貸款總額為 43 億美元，而第二季為 45 億美元。淨收入總計 2.57 億美元，而上一季為 2.37 億美元；淨利為 5,400 萬美元，而第二季為 3,700 萬美元。以每股計算，我們稀釋後每股淨利潤為 0.88 美元。調整後淨利潤為 2,900 萬美元，即每股 0.48 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 4,400 萬美元。

Focusing on our Origination segment, our gain-on-sale margin came in at 377 basis points compared to 310 basis points in the second quarter on funded originations. Gain-on-sale margins on pull-through adjusted loss volume increased 75 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 389 basis points and total pull-through adjusted loss volume was $4.1 billion compared to $4.4 billion in the prior quarter. During the 3 months ended September 30, 2023, we changed certain of our assumptions through enhancements to the models, using the valuation of our interest rate lock commitments and mortgage loans held for sale which resulted in a $17.4 million increase to gain on sale of loans.

專注於我們的起源業務領域，我們的銷售利潤率為 377 個基點，而第二季融資起源業務的銷售利潤率為 310 個基點。調整後虧損額的銷售利潤季增 75 個基點，達到 389 個基點，調整後虧損額總額為 41 億美元，而上一季為 44 億美元。在截至2023 年9 月30 日的3 個月內，我們透過對模型的增強，使用我們的利率鎖定承諾和待售抵押貸款的估值，改變了我們的某些假設，導致出售貸款收益增加了1,740 萬美元。

For our Servicing segment, we reported net income of $84 million compared to $89 million in the second quarter, with a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase in the unpaid balance of our servicing portfolio to $84 billion. The reduction in net income was due to a lower change in fair value due to valuation assumptions of $38.2 million in Q3 compared to $43.8 million in Q2. Our balance sheet remains strong and provides us with the flexibility to continue to invest in our growth in a disciplined manner, and our assets consist primarily of high-quality loans and MSRs.

對於我們的服務部門，我們的淨利潤為 8,400 萬美元，而第二季為 8,900 萬美元，服務組合的未付餘額環比增長 2%，達到 840 億美元。淨利潤減少的原因是第三季估值假設為 3,820 萬美元，而第二季為 4,380 萬美元，導致公允價值變化較小。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，為我們提供了繼續以嚴格的方式投資於成長的靈活性，我們的資產主要包括優質貸款和 MSR。

Turning to liquidity. As of September 30, cash and cash equivalents totaled $114 million, while unutilized loan funding capacity increased to $1 billion, and unutilized mortgage servicing rights line of credit was $336 million based on total committed amounts and borrowing base limitations. Our leverage ratio defined as total secured debt, including funding divided by tangible stockholders equity was 1.0x. Book value per share at the end of the quarter was $20.96, while the tangible book value per share was $17.46. We continue to focus on optimizing our deployment of capital while managing through uncertain times with financial prudency and efficiency. Our strong balance sheet and liquidity enables us to invest in the business and strategically deploy capital in a disciplined manner to drive growth and shareholder value over time. This includes the acquisition we completed during the quarter.

轉向流動性。截至9 月30 日，現金和現金等價物總計1.14 億美元，而未使用的貸款融資能力增加至10 億美元，根據總承諾金額和借款基礎限制，未使用的抵押貸款服務權信貸額度為3.36 億美元。我們的槓桿率定義為擔保債務總額（包括資金）除以有形股東權益，為 1.0 倍。本季末每股帳面價值為 20.96 美元，每股有形帳面價值為 17.46 美元。我們繼續專注於優化資本配置，同時以財務審慎和高效的方式應對不確定時期。我們強大的資產負債表和流動性使我們能夠以嚴格的方式投資於業務並策略性地部署資本，以隨著時間的推移推動成長和股東價值。這包括我們在本季完成的收購。

In addition, during the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 87,000 shares at an average stock price of $11.74 per share. In October, we generated $1.3 billion of loan originations and $1.3 billion of pull-through adjusted lock volume. Industry mortgage rates have ticked up again maintaining the current more challenging market conditions as well as entering the seasonally slower fourth quarter. We continue to focus on gaining market share through serving potential homebuyers with products and services that meet their needs as well as selective acquisitions. We have a well-positioned balance sheet, which will support the growth of our platform. We anticipate continued pressure in the near term and remain confident in our balanced business model, which we believe results in more durable and sustainable performance across market cycles. And with that, we'll open up the call for questions. Operator?

此外，在第三季度，我們以每股 11.74 美元的平均股價回購了約 87,000 股股票。 10 月份，我們發放了 13 億美元的貸款，並產生了 13 億美元的拉動調整鎖定量。產業抵押貸款利率再次上升，維持當前更具挑戰性的市場條件，並進入季節性放緩的第四季。我們繼續致力於透過為潛在購屋者提供滿足其需求的產品和服務以及選擇性收購來獲得市場份額。我們擁有良好的資產負債表，這將支持我們平台的成長。我們預計短期內將面臨持續壓力，並對我們平衡的業務模式保持信心，我們相信這會在整個市場週期中帶來更持久和可持續的績效。至此，我們將開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) At this time, we will take our first question, which will come from Kyle Joseph with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）此時，我們將提出第一個問題，該問題將由凱爾·約瑟夫（Kyle Joseph）和傑弗里斯（Jefferies）提出。

Just first on the recovery on margins in the quarter. Just can you give us a sense for anything that drove that and your expectations for that going forward?

首先是本季利潤率的復甦。您能否讓我們了解推動這一趨勢的因素以及您對未來的期望？

Yes. So as we noted in the release in the prepared remarks, we did have a $17.4 million increase to gain on sale in Q3 and that's not reflective of our organic higher gain-on-sale margin in basis points. That was due to us looking at our assumptions for estimates and doing a valuation change in regards to that model enhancement, if you will. And so we really think about gain-on-sale margins on originations in the future to reflect our operating performance rather than this model enhancement that we made in Q3. And I would say, if you look at the quarters prior to this, that the last 5 or 6 quarters, we are really hovering around that 330 basis points on originations, and we aren't seeing anything different that would shift that pending no other changes in the market.

是的。因此，正如我們在準備好的評論中所指出的那樣，我們在第三季度的銷售收益確實增加了 1740 萬美元，但這並不能反映我們有機較高的基點銷售收益。這是因為我們查看了估計假設，並對模型增強進行了估值更改（如果您願意的話）。因此，我們真正考慮的是未來產品的銷售利潤率，以反映我們的經營業績，而不是我們在第三季所做的模型增強。我想說，如果你看看之前的幾個季度，在過去的5 或6 個季度中，我們的起源確實在330 個基點附近徘徊，而且我們沒有看到任何不同的情況會改變這種情況，除非沒有其他因素。市場的變化。

Got you. And then I don't know if I could really parse it out in your results, but just talk about the opportunity that you guys are seeing in reverse and how that trended in the quarter.

明白你了。然後我不知道我是否真的可以在你們的結果中解析它，但只是談談你們看到的相反的機會以及本季度的趨勢。

Yes. And our reverse volume is overall immaterial to our overall volume, and it is in the KPIs that we're showing on the release and it's about $30 million in the quarter of originations. So we think that there's a lot more potential to roll it out throughout our retail group and are continuing to grow that area.

是的。總體而言，我們的反向交易量對我們的整體交易量並不重要，我們在發布中顯示的 KPI 中顯示了反向交易量，該季度的交易量約為 3000 萬美元。因此，我們認為在我們的零售集團中推廣它有更大的潛力，並且正在繼續擴大該領域。

Got it. And then last one for me, just your perspective on the NAR announcement a couple of weeks ago and all the noise around that and any sort of potential risks or opportunities you see as a result of that? I know it's early stages.

知道了。最後一個問題是您對幾週前 NAR 聲明的看法，以及圍繞該聲明的所有噪音，以及您由此看到的任何潛在風險或機會？我知道現在還處於早期階段。

Yes. We are very aware of this outcome in Missouri. There are various thoughts right now going around the marketplace, whether it's related to real estate or the lending side. And there really isn't any consensus that we've come to consider at this point. We do anticipate that there's going to be some sort of change and this industry is always evolving. We expect this may be another development that we'll need to adjust to. However, we've been through changing environments before and managed through them. This is no different. So we're just getting a lot of filters out in anticipation of some kind of change, and we'll certainly adapt accordingly, like we always have.

是的。我們非常清楚密蘇裡州的這項結果。現在市場上有各種各樣的想法，無論是與房地產還是貸款方面有關。目前我們確實沒有考慮任何共識。我們確實預計將會發生某種變化，而這個行業總是在不斷發展。我們預計這可能是我們需要適應的另一個發展。然而，我們之前經歷過不斷變化的環境並透過它們進行管理。這沒什麼不同。因此，我們只是為了預期某種變化而刪除了很多過濾器，並且我們肯定會做出相應的調整，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

And our next question will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Amber, you talked about the $17.4 million and that really puts the sort of economic gain on sale for the third quarter at about 3.3. Was the -- it appears that the true-up was related to MSR but didn't actually go through the MSR fair value mark. Is that the right way to see things. Can you describe to us a little bit better what happened?

Amber，您談到了 1740 萬美元，這確實使第三季的經濟收益約為 3.3。看起來，真實情況與 MSR 有關，但實際上並未經過 MSR 公允價值標記。這是看待事物的正確方式嗎？您能向我們描述一下發生的事情嗎？

Sure. It's not related to the MSR mark. So it's -- we had an assumption change of how the servicing value was incorporated into the fair value at time of lock and loans held for sale. And so it's running through the fair value mark on the gain on sale line. When we reassess our accounting estimates each quarter based on the available information and prevailing industry practices for valuation of similar types of assets. And based on that assessment, we determined to enhance our valuation model with assumption change. So that's where it sits. It's not related to the MSR in terms of the like impairment or recapture that you would see in the Servicing segment.

當然。與MSR標誌無關。因此，我們對如何將服務價值納入鎖定時的公允價值和待售貸款的公允價值進行了假設變更。因此，它穿過銷售收益線上的公允價值標記。當我們根據現有資訊和對類似類型資產進行估值的現行行業慣例每季重新評估我們的會計估計時。基於該評估，我們決定透過假設變更來增強我們的估值模型。這就是它所在的位置。就您在維修部門中看到的類似減損或重新捕獲而言，它與 MSR 無關。

Got it. Okay. But it was -- this is obviously -- we know this because you didn't suddenly find $17.4 million of cash. So this was capitalization presumably of the MSR. So -- and that's -- I assume the line item within the balance sheet where we see that. So when we look at the numbers, it looks like you retained -- the other thing that's happening, and this may be related to the acquisitions, your retention rate on Servicing, has historically been targeted in the 90s. When you made acquisitions, it's dropped as you brought platforms that were sellers -- net sellers of MSR on and you've reworked their relationships. But this quarter was actually pretty much the lowest we've seen at 80% retained. Is that related to acquisition? Or is that related to the comment that we heard about enhancing liquidity on the balance sheet?

知道了。好的。但很明顯，我們知道這一點是因為你並沒有突然找到 1740 萬美元的現金。所以這大概是 MSR 的大寫。所以——那就是——我假設我們在資產負債表中看到了這一點。因此，當我們查看這些數字時，看起來您保留了 - 正在發生的另一件事，這可能與收購有關，您的服務保留率歷來是在 90 年代的目標。當你進行收購時，它會下降，因為你帶來了賣家平台——MSR的淨賣家，並且你重新處理了他們的關係。但本季實際上是我們所見過的最低水平，保留率為 80%。這和收購有關係嗎？或者這與我們聽到的關於增強資產負債表流動性的評論有關？

Really neither. It's just we look at the -- how we value the servicing asset and what a service released correspondent would pay us for that asset. And we were in an environment this last quarter where the pricing was pretty aggressive. And so we took advantage of that, and that is basically all that happened.

真的都不是。我們只是專注於如何評估服務資產以及發布服務的通訊員會為該資產向我們支付多少錢。上個季度我們所處的環境是定價相當激進的。所以我們利用了這一點，這基本上就是所發生的一切。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And presumably, that environment is persisting. I guess the one thing that I would anecdotally say contravenes that a little bit is that we've heard from bulk purchasers of MSR that because there is so much dislocation amongst the originators that it's actually a very compelling time for them to be buying an MSR, they find it particularly attractive from a rate perspective.

知道了。好的。這就說得通了。據推測，這種環境將會持續存在。我想我想說的一件事有點違反的是，我們從MSR 的大宗購買者那裡聽說，因為發起者之間存在如此多的錯位，所以現在對他們來說實際上是一個非常有吸引力的購買MSR 的時機，他們發現從費率角度來看它特別有吸引力。

I agree with your point, Rick, that is correct. But I think you've still got these correspondents that have capacity issues and are being pretty aggressive at getting cash, just getting additional loans to fill the cost to originate these loans. So we still are -- we're still as an industry shedding the capacity and so that's really more of the driver in my opinion.

我同意你的觀點，里克，這是正確的。但我認為這些通訊員仍然存在能力問題，並且非常積極地獲取現金，只是獲得額外的貸款來填補發放這些貸款的成本。所以我們仍然——作為一個行業，我們仍然在削減產能，所以在我看來，這確實是更多的驅動因素。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

It sounds like the Q4 gain-on-sale margin would be in the 330 range, but that's still well below your historical in the high 3s. Do you see that trending up as we move into 2024. Is there enough capacity coming out of the industry or volume so low that you think that's kind of the range that we should be looking for?

聽起來第四季的銷售利潤率將在 330 的範圍內，但這仍然遠低於歷史上最高的 3。當我們進入 2024 年時，您是否看到這種趨勢呈上升趨勢？該行業是否有足夠的產能或數量如此之低，以至於您認為這是我們應該尋找的範圍？

We don't provide guidance going forward, but I will say that we're not seeing any changes occurring right now. I think volume is just going into a very seasonally slow fourth quarter on top of these inventory issues, we're not going to see any changes. And at this point, we don't know when the market will turn in 2024. We're hoping that it's at some point within the year, but it's hard to say.

我們不提供未來的指導，但我要說的是，我們現在沒有看到任何變化發生。我認為，除了這些庫存問題之外，第四季的銷售將進入季節性非常緩慢的階段，我們不會看到任何變化。目前，我們不知道 2024 年市場何時會出現轉變。我們希望是在一年內的某個時候，但這很難說。

Got it. And where are you in the acquisition cycle? Are you still seeing opportunities to where you think there could be more deals into 2024?

知道了。您處於收購週期的哪個階段？您是否仍認為 2024 年可能會有更多交易？

Our pipeline is still very strong. It seem like things slowed down a little bit in the summer months, but it's picking up again. So we do anticipate that we'll still be in the market to do additional acquisitions going forward and very similar to what we've done this year. It's pretty active still.

我們的管道仍然非常強大。在夏季的幾個月裡，情況似乎有所放緩，但現在又開始好轉了。因此，我們確實預計，未來我們仍將在市場上進行更多收購，這與我們今年所做的非常相似。還是蠻活躍的

And our next question will come from Trevor Cranston with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 JMP 證券公司的 Trevor Cranston。

All right. Follow up to the last question about the acquisition opportunities. Can you maybe talk about what kind of opportunities you're finding to grow the business away from acquisitions, whether it be through adding employees from other companies that might not be in quite a stronger position as you guys or how you're seeing growth opportunities away from the acquisition side.

好的。繼續關於收購機會的最後一個問題。您能否談談您正在尋找哪些機會來發展業務，擺脫收購，無論是透過增加其他公司的員工（這些公司的地位可能不如你們），還是您如何看待成長機會遠離收購方。

Sure. Outside of acquisitions, we're always focused on organically growing as well and bringing in originators. And that, too, is more active than it's been -- our pipeline is larger than it's been all year. And we hired a new recruitment manager, and he's doing a fantastic job. And I think it's just that the brand that we've built in the industry, everybody understands that this is what we do, whether it's acquisitions or organic and to date, our organic goal, we've actually met the goal for the year, and we still have 2 months left. So there still is quite a bit of opportunity there as well. So we're going both fronts.

當然。除了收購之外，我們始終專注於有機成長和引進原創者。這也比以往更加活躍——我們的管道比全年都大。我們聘請了一位新的招募經理，他的工作非常出色。我認為這只是我們在行業中建立的品牌，每個人都明白這就是我們所做的，無論是收購還是有機的，到目前為止，我們的有機目標，我們實際上已經實現了今年的目標，我們還有兩個月的時間。因此，那裡仍然存在相當多的機會。所以我們要從兩個方面進行。

And our next question will be a follow-up from Rick Shane with JPMorgan. Rick, your line is open.

我們的下一個問題將是摩根大通的 Rick Shane 的後續問題。瑞克，你的線路已開通。

Sorry about that. I apologize. I should have asked this before and if it's disclosed anywhere, and I've missed it, I apologize. Should we assume that the pretax operating income on the $17.4 million adjustment is essentially 100%?

對於那個很抱歉。我道歉。我應該之前就問過這個問題，如果它在任何地方被披露，而我錯過了，我深表歉意。我們是否應該假設 1740 萬美元調整後的稅前營業收入基本上為 100%？

The -- I mean it would flow through the income statement and apply the same -- the same tax figure that our overall financials have.

我的意思是，它將流經損益表並應用與我們整體財務狀況相同的稅收數字。

Right. But there are no operating expenses or amortization or any.

正確的。但沒有營運費用或攤銷或任何費用。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Yes. And Rick, just to be clear, because of one of the comments you said, so the increase relates just to the fair value estimates driven by the enhancements to the model. So for the loans that are in our locked pipeline and held-for-sale inventory in the third quarter, when these loans are sold, this fair value-related gain will be offset at the time of sale. So I just want to make sure that's clear because you were talking about liquidity on the MSR, and it's not in there, it's really sitting in the loans held for sale on the balance sheet.

是的。里克（Rick），需要澄清的是，由於您所說的其中一項評論，因此增加僅與模型增強所驅動的公允價值估計有關。因此，對於第三季我們鎖定的貸款和持有待售庫存的貸款，當這些貸款被出售時，這種與公允價值相關的收益將在出售時被抵銷。所以我只是想確保這一點清楚，因為你談論的是 MSR 上的流動性，但它並不在那裡，它實際上存在於資產負債表上待售的貸款中。

Got it. Okay. And so the way to think of this is not that you changed the assumptions which you would run through the fair value, but you literally just changed the model and said, okay, wait a second, the way we're enhancing the way we're doing this. And even if we had done the -- if we were to do this retroactively and run the model, the numbers would have simply been different in the past.

知道了。好的。因此，思考這個問題的方法並不是你改變了公允價值的假設，而是你實際上只是改變了模型並說，好吧，等一下，我們正在增強我們的方式。正在做這個。即使我們已經做到了——如果我們要追溯並運行模型，這些數字也會與過去不同。

It's just a model enhancement. And so it's just the servicing value and how it's incorporated into the fair value at the time of lock in the loans held for sale. And then like I said, it offsets the time of sale. So it's really just a balance sheet impact at the end of Q3 from that perspective.

這只是模型的增強。因此，這只是服務價值以及在鎖定待售貸款時如何將其納入公允價值。然後就像我說的，它抵消了銷售時間。因此，從這個角度來看，這其實只是第三季末對資產負債表的影響。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Terry Schmidt for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給特里·施密特（Terry Schmidt）做總結發言。

Just wanted to say thank you for being on the call, and we'll just keep executing on our strategy, and we'll talk next quarter. Thank you.

只是想說謝謝您接聽電話，我們將繼續執行我們的策略，我們將在下個季度進行討論。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。