格芯 (GFS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該公司正試圖將其自由現金流的產生與客戶需求相匹配,而 CHIPS 法案將幫助它做到這一點。在汽車市場,我們看到隨著行業加速 5G 並為先進的駕駛輔助系統做準備,設計活動有所增加。我們還看到,在包括電動汽車、車載信息娛樂、車身電子和 ADAS 在內的廣泛應用中贏得的新客戶數量也在增加。

本季度,格芯的多項業務實現了強勁增長。在 5G 低於 6GHz 的射頻收發器市場,這對格芯來說是新的,在領先的手機芯片客戶採用其產品的推動下,該公司預計 2022 年將實現強勁增長。另一個新市場是 WiFi RF SoC,其增長是由格芯的解決方案進入支持 WiFi 6、6E 和 WiFi Mesh 網絡的主要手機型號推動的。

我們的圖像傳感器處理器業務在本季度也強勁增長,因為我們繼續與行業領導者和堆疊邏輯技術合作開發低功耗解決方案,因為它們對於支持低光分辨率應用變得越來越重要。

在我們差異化的 55 BCDLite 解決方案的推動下,我們的智能移動設備音頻業務今年也強勁增長。格芯的 BCDLite 解決方案通過提供更高的效率、更低的洩漏和改進的噪聲性能來解決特殊電源應用,例如顯示、無線充電和電池管理。

轉向家庭和工業物聯網,家庭和工業物聯網市場的收入同比增長約 83%,佔總收入的 19%。該終端市場的強勁同比增長是由近 40% 的晶圓量增長推動的,其餘的則是更好的平均售價和改進的組合。

在汽車市場,我們看到隨著行業加速 5G 並為先進的駕駛輔助系統做準備,設計活動有所增加。我們還看到,在包括電動汽車、車載信息娛樂、車身電子和 ADAS 在內的廣泛應用中贏得的新客戶數量也在增加。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to GlobalFoundries conference call to review its third quarter fiscal year 2022 financial results. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 GlobalFoundries 電話會議,回顧其 2022 財年第三季度財務業績。 (操作員說明)。請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Sukhi Nagesh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議交給今天的主持人,投資者關係主管 Sukhi Nagesh。請繼續。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to GlobalFoundries Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Dr. Thomas Caulfield, CEO; and Dave Reeder, CFO. A short while ago, we released GF's third quarter 2022 financial results, which is available on our website at investors.gf.com, along with today's accompanying slide presentation. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be made available on our Investor Relations web page.

    謝謝運營商,大家早上好,歡迎參加 GlobalFoundries 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是首席執行官 Thomas Caulfield 博士;和首席財務官戴夫·里德。不久前,我們發布了格芯 2022 年第三季度財務業績,該業績可在我們的網站 Investors.gf.com 上獲取,並附有今天隨附的幻燈片演示。該電話正在錄音,我們的投資者關係網頁上將提供重播。

  • During this call, we will present both IFRS and adjusted non-IFRS financial measures. The most directly comparable IFRS measures and reconciliations for adjusted non-IFRS measures are available in today's press release and the accompanying slides. I would remind you that these financial results are unaudited and subject to change.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將介紹 IFRS 和調整後的非 IFRS 財務指標。最直接可比的 IFRS 措施和調整後的非 IFRS 措施的調節可在今天的新聞稿和隨附的幻燈片中獲得。我要提醒您,這些財務業績未經審計,可能會發生變化。

  • Certain statements on today's call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such statements can be identified by terms such as believe, expect, intend, anticipate, and may. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today.

    今天電話會議上的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述。此類陳述可以通過相信、預期、打算、預期和可能等術語來識別。您不應過分依賴前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異,我們不承擔更新我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

  • For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the press release we issued today as well as risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings, including in the section under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on March 31, 2022, and on our 6-K filed with the SEC on August 19, 2022.

    有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的更多信息,請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿以及我們提交給 SEC 的文件中描述的風險和不確定性,包括在標題“風險因素”下的部分我們於 2022 年 3 月 31 日向 SEC 提交的 20-F 表格年度報告和 2022 年 8 月 19 日向 SEC 提交的 6-K 年度報告。

  • We will begin today's call with Tom providing a summary update on the current business environment and technologies, following which Dave will provide details on our end market, third quarter results and also provide fourth quarter guidance. We will then open the call for questions. (Operator Instructions)

    我們將開始今天的電話會議,Tom 將提供有關當前業務環境和技術的摘要更新,隨後 Dave 將提供有關我們終端市場、第三季度業績的詳細信息,並提供第四季度指導。然後,我們將打開問題電話。 (操作員說明)

  • I'll now turn the call over to Tom for his prepared remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉給湯姆,讓他準備好發言。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Sukhi, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call. I'm pleased to report very clear results that were better than our August provided guidance as we continue to make solid progress on our strategic and financial priorities. Amidst an increasingly challenging economic environment, our team across our entire enterprise continues to execute.

    謝謝你,Sukhi,歡迎大家參加我們的第三季度財報電話會議。我很高興地報告非常明確的結果,這些結果比我們 8 月份提供的指導要好,因為我們繼續在戰略和財務優先事項上取得紮實的進展。在日益嚴峻的經濟環境中,我們整個企業的團隊繼續執行。

  • Let me begin by providing a brief update on the current business environment. Given the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, we continue to work closely with our customers to monitor end-market demand. Since the beginning of the quarter, some of our customers have requested to modestly adjust some of their 2023 shipments downward, particularly with respect to the first half of 2023.

    讓我首先簡要介紹一下當前的商業環境。鑑於宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定性日益增加,我們將繼續與客戶密切合作以監控終端市場需求。自本季度初以來,我們的一些客戶要求適度調整其 2023 年的部分出貨量,尤其是 2023 年上半年的出貨量。

  • Based on the current macroeconomic environment and our customer discussions, we are proactively taking actions to contain costs and to accelerate our previously planned productivity initiatives. Though it is difficult to take these actions during a year of record output. We believe that taking these actions now enables us to continue to outperform the market regardless of the economic environment. David will provide more details about these activities on his commentary.

    根據當前的宏觀經濟環境和我們的客戶討論,我們正在積極採取行動控製成本並加快我們先前計劃的生產力計劃。儘管在創紀錄的一年中很難採取這些行動。我們相信,現在採取這些行動使我們能夠繼續超越市場,無論經濟環境如何。大衛將在他的評論中提供有關這些活動的更多細節。

  • Long-term GF's growth drivers remain intact. Our aggregate LTAs have increased from the prior quarter as the number of customers under long-term agreements has grown from 36 to 38, with the total value of these long-term agreements now slightly above $27 billion. Additionally, the amount of committed prepays has increased 6% from a quarter ago, to approximately $3.8 billion.

    格芯的長期增長動力保持不變。隨著長期協議下的客戶數量從 36 個增加到 38 個,我們的長期協議總額比上一季度有所增加,這些長期協議的總價值現在略高於 270 億美元。此外,承諾的預付款金額比上一季度增加了 6%,達到約 38 億美元。

  • Also, and as expected, our long-term agreements are providing a strong framework for us and our customers to have balanced and constructive demand discussions. As an example, a recent LTA amendment resulted in a modest underutilization cash payment and ASP increase on existing demand and an additional year added to the contract's duration. A great example of the benefit of the long-term agreement structure.

    此外,正如預期的那樣,我們的長期協議為我們和我們的客戶進行平衡和建設性的需求討論提供了一個強大的框架。例如,最近的 LTA 修正案導致了適度的未充分利用現金支付和現有需求的平均售價增加,並且合同期限增加了一年。長期協議結構的好處的一個很好的例子。

  • Now let me give you an overview of third quarter. GlobalFoundries revenue grew 22% year-over-year, driven by increases in both wafer shipments, richer mix and ASPs. This revenue growth, coupled with strong operational execution, resulted in continued improvement to adjusted gross margin. We reported adjusted gross margin of 29.9% in the quarter, a 12 percentage point improvement from the year ago period.

    現在讓我給你一個第三季度的概述。 GlobalFoundries 的收入同比增長 22%,這主要得益於晶圓出貨量、更豐富的產品組合和 ASP 的增長。這種收入增長,加上強大的運營執行力,導致調整後的毛利率持續改善。我們報告本季度調整後的毛利率為 29.9%,比去年同期提高 12 個百分點。

  • As a result, we delivered earnings per share of $0.67, which is better than the high end of our guidance range. Again, Dave will provide more color on our financials in a moment, but let me now provide a brief update on our recent technology achievements.

    因此,我們的每股收益為 0.67 美元,好於我們指導範圍的高端。同樣,Dave 稍後會為我們的財務狀況提供更多信息,但現在讓我簡要介紹一下我們最近的技術成就。

  • In the third quarter, we completed 5 technology qualifications. Notably, this included a 12-nanometer LP customer-specific technology covered under a 5-year long-term agreement. Also among the qualifications is the customer's proprietary automotive 40-nanometer embedded nonvolatile memory product for one of the largest automotive MCU suppliers in the industry. This qualification now allows us to ship this product from both our Dresden and Singapore facilities, establishing a high-volume secure supply chain for the automotive industry.

    第三季度,我們完成了5項技術資質。值得注意的是,這包括一項 5 年長期協議涵蓋的 12 納米 LP 客戶特定技術。資格還包括客戶專有的汽車 40 納米嵌入式非易失性存儲器產品,該產品為業內最大的汽車 MCU 供應商之一。現在,該資格使我們能夠從我們的德累斯頓和新加坡工廠運送該產品,從而為汽車行業建立大批量的安全供應鏈。

  • Within the quarter, we also tapped out 5 new customer products on our silicon photonics platform. This included a photo IC device, fully monolithic co-packaged optics for GPU-to-GPU 2 terabit optical interconnect. Finally, we have successfully produced a high-performance RF GaN device with our through-silicon via technology. We now have demonstrated performance that exceeds silicon HBT technologies, and as I previously mentioned, integrates a novel through-silicon via solution to optimize power amplifier output and efficiency.

    在本季度,我們還在我們的矽光子平台上開發了 5 款新的客戶產品。這包括一個照片 IC 設備,用於 GPU 到 GPU 2 太比特光學互連的完全單片共封裝光學器件。最後,我們利用我們的矽通孔技術成功生產了高性能射頻 GaN 器件。我們現在已經展示了超越矽 HBT 技術的性能,並且正如我之前提到的,集成了一種新穎的矽通孔解決方案,以優化功率放大器的輸出和效率。

  • In addition, we have sampled GaN power devices to early engagement customers. Both programs are being executed in our Burlington, Vermont facility, where we recently received a $30 million grant from the U.S. government as part of the commercialization funding for this GaN RF technology offering.

    此外,我們還為早期參與的客戶提供了 GaN 功率器件的樣品。這兩個項目都在我們位於佛蒙特州伯靈頓的工廠執行,我們最近從美國政府那裡獲得了 3000 萬美元的贈款,作為這項 GaN 射頻技術產品商業化資金的一部分。

  • To summarize, I'm pleased to report another quarter of solid execution as we delivered to all our customers and to all our stakeholders. We are on track to have a strong year of growth in 2022. And given the strength of our product portfolio, the breadth of the markets we serve and the single-source nature of our business, we are well positioned to navigate the current challenging macroeconomic environment.

    總而言之,當我們向所有客戶和所有利益相關者交付產品時,我很高興地報告又一個季度的穩健執行。我們有望在 2022 年實現強勁增長。鑑於我們產品組合的實力、我們服務的市場的廣度以及我們業務的單一來源性質,我們已做好準備應對當前充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境。

  • With that, over to you, Dave.

    有了這個,交給你,戴夫。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Thank you, Tom, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. For the remainder of the call, including guidance, I will reference adjusted metrics, which exclude stock-based compensation.

    謝謝你,湯姆,歡迎來到我們的第三季度財報電話會議。對於電話會議的其餘部分,包括指導,我將參考調整後的指標,其中不包括基於股票的薪酬。

  • Our third quarter results exceeded the high end of the financial range we provided in our last quarterly update. Third quarter revenue was approximately $2.074 billion, an increase of 22% year-over-year. We shipped approximately 637,300-millimeter equivalent wafers in the quarter, a 5% increase from the year prior period.

    我們的第三季度業績超出了我們在上一季度更新中提供的財務範圍的高端。第三季度收入約為 20.74 億美元,同比增長 22%。我們在本季度出貨了大約 637,300 毫米等效晶圓,比去年同期增長 5%。

  • Average selling price, ASP, per wafer increased approximately 14% year-over-year, driven by ramping long-term customer agreements with better pricing as well as continued improvement in product mix. Wafer revenue from our end markets accounted for approximately 90% of total revenue. Non-wafer revenue, which includes revenue from reticles, nonrecurring engineering, expedite fees and other items accounted for approximately 10% of total revenue for the quarter, consistent with our expectations.

    每片晶圓的平均銷售價格 (ASP) 同比增長約 14%,這主要是由於長期客戶協議的價格更優惠以及產品組合的持續改進。來自終端市場的晶圓收入約佔總收入的 90%。非晶圓收入(包括來自標線片、非經常性工程、加急費和其他項目的收入)約佔本季度總收入的 10%,與我們的預期一致。

  • Let me now provide an update on our revenue by end markets. Smart mobile devices represented approximately 46% of third quarter revenue, growing approximately 12% year-over-year. Growth was driven by higher ASPs and better mix as we continue to increase our silicon content in the premium tier handsets. In our RF front-end modules, despite the well-known and ongoing inventory correction in handsets, we are executing well and expect mid-teens full year growth in the premium segment, offset by declines in the low and mid-range segments.

    現在讓我按終端市場提供我們收入的最新信息。智能移動設備約佔第三季度收入的 46%,同比增長約 12%。隨著我們繼續增加高端手機中的矽含量,增長是由更高的平均售價和更好的組合推動的。在我們的射頻前端模塊中,儘管眾所周知且持續的手機庫存調整,但我們的表現良好,預計高端市場全年將實現 10 年中期增長,但被中低端市場的下滑所抵消。

  • Our long-term customer agreements are helping us navigate the challenging demand environment by reducing volatility. We continue to maintain market share in premium tier handsets and are currently developing next-generation technologies that will improve performance through better switch, LNA and digital integration.

    我們的長期客戶協議正在幫助我們通過減少波動來應對充滿挑戰的需求環境。我們繼續保持高端手機的市場份額,目前正在開發下一代技術,這些技術將通過更好的開關、LNA 和數字集成來提高性能。

  • Furthermore, in the 5G sub-6-gigahertz RF transceiver market, which is a new market for GF, we expect to see robust growth in 2022, driven by the adoption of our products by a leading handset chip customer. Another new market is WiFi RF SoC where growth is driven by our solutions going into premier handset models in support of WiFi 6, 6E and WiFi Mesh networks.

    此外,在 5G sub-6-GHz RF 收發器市場(這是格芯的一個新市場)中,我們預計 2022 年將出現強勁增長,這得益於領先的手機芯片客戶採用我們的產品。另一個新市場是 WiFi RF SoC,我們的解決方案進入支持 WiFi 6、6E 和 WiFi Mesh 網絡的主要手機型號,推動了該市場的增長。

  • Our image sensor processor business also grew strongly in the quarter as we continue to partner with industry leaders and stacked logic technologies for low-power solutions as they become increasingly important to support low-light resolution applications.

    我們的圖像傳感器處理器業務在本季度也強勁增長,因為我們繼續與行業領導者和堆疊邏輯技術合作開發低功耗解決方案,因為它們對於支持低光分辨率應用變得越來越重要。

  • Our smart mobile device audio business is also growing strongly this year, driven by our differentiated 55 BCDLite solutions. GF's BCDLite solutions address specialty power applications such as display, wireless charging and battery management by providing higher efficiency, lower leakage and improve noise performance.

    在我們差異化的 55 BCDLite 解決方案的推動下,我們的智能移動設備音頻業務今年也強勁增長。格芯的 BCDLite 解決方案通過提供更高的效率、更低的洩漏和改進的噪聲性能來解決顯示、無線充電和電池管理等特殊電源應用。

  • Moving on to home and industrial IoT. Revenue for the home and industrial IoT market grew approximately 83% year-over-year, representing 19% of total revenue. Strong year-over-year growth in this end market was driven by wafer volume growth of almost 40%, with the remainder the result of better ASPs and improved mix.

    轉向家庭和工業物聯網。家庭和工業物聯網市場的收入同比增長約 83%,佔總收入的 19%。該終端市場的強勁同比增長是由近 40% 的晶圓量增長推動的,其餘的則是更好的平均售價和改進的組合。

  • Within this end market, we saw continued growth in smart card solutions and wireless connectivity, driven by our differentiated 28-nanometer and 22 FDX technologies. We also saw broad-based growth in power management in the quarter. We remain on track for home and industrial IoT to be the fastest-growing end market for GF in 2022.

    在這個終端市場中,我們看到了智能卡解決方案和無線連接的持續增長,這得益於我們差異化的 28 納米和 22 FDX 技術。我們還看到本季度電源管理的廣泛增長。我們仍有望使家庭和工業物聯網成為 2022 年格芯增長最快的終端市場。

  • Touching next on automotive. Revenue in this market was approximately 5% of our total third quarter revenue. The automotive end market has been one of the brighter spots in the market. We expect our growth to continue as we bring to market new MCUs and safety applications, radar for sensing and power management for electrification. Based on our current design wins, we anticipate continued growth in our automotive business in 2023, and we expect the business to exit 2023 at a $1 billion annualized run rate.

    接下來是汽車。該市場的收入約占我們第三季度總收入的 5%。汽車終端市場一直是市場的亮點之一。隨著我們將新的 MCU 和安全應用、用於傳感的雷達和用於電氣化的電源管理推向市場,我們預計我們的增長將繼續。根據我們目前的設計勝利,我們預計 2023 年我們的汽車業務將繼續增長,我們預計該業務將在 2023 年以 10 億美元的年化運行速度退出。

  • Next, our communications infrastructure and data center end market comprised approximately 18% of third quarter revenue and grew approximately 29% year-over-year. Growth was evenly split between higher shipments and better ASPs and mix. Our strongest year-over-year growth continues to be in the data center submarket closely followed by wired infrastructure and storage.

    接下來,我們的通信基礎設施和數據中心終端市場約佔第三季度收入的 18%,同比增長約 29%。增長在更高的出貨量和更好的平均售價和組合之間平均分配。我們最強勁的同比增長繼續出現在數據中心子市場,緊隨其後的是有線基礎設施和存儲。

  • Our customers are continuing to grow market share in this segment, and GF is contributing by providing critical connectivity and [IOD] components. Finally, and as expected, our compute end market declined year-over-year and comprised approximately 2% of third quarter revenue. We expect this end market to be less than 5% of our total 2022 revenue.

    我們的客戶在這一領域的市場份額持續增長,格芯通過提供關鍵的連接性和 [IOD] 組件做出貢獻。最後,正如預期的那樣,我們的計算終端市場同比下降,約佔第三季度收入的 2%。我們預計這個終端市場將不到我們 2022 年總收入的 5%。

  • Moving next to gross profit. For the third quarter, we delivered adjusted gross profit of $621 million, which translates into approximately 29.9% adjusted gross margin. The 12 percentage point year-over-year improvement was driven by better fixed cost absorption, higher ASPs and improved mix. Approximately 80% of this improvement was attributable to ASP and mix, with the remaining 20% attributable to volume and fixed-cost absorption.

    移動到毛利潤旁邊。第三季度,我們實現了 6.21 億美元的調整後毛利潤,這意味著調整後的毛利率約為 29.9%。同比增長 12 個百分點是由更好的固定成本吸收、更高的 ASP 和改進的組合推動的。大約 80% 的改進歸因於 ASP 和組合,其餘 20% 歸因於數量和固定成本吸收。

  • Operating expenses for the third quarter were slightly better than expected and represented approximately 11% of total revenue. R&D for the quarter was up sequentially at approximately $118 million, while SG&A came in at $114 million. Total operating expenses were $232 million excluding $21 million of stock-based compensation.

    第三季度的運營費用略好於預期,約佔總收入的 11%。本季度的研發環比增長約 1.18 億美元,而 SG&A 則為 1.14 億美元。總運營費用為 2.32 億美元,不包括 2100 萬美元的股票補償。

  • GF delivered operating profit of $389 million for the quarter, which translates into an approximately 19% adjusted operating margin, roughly 14 percentage points better than the year ago period and $8 million higher than the high end of our guidance range.

    格芯本季度實現營業利潤 3.89 億美元,調整後營業利潤率約為 19%,比去年同期高出約 14 個百分點,比我們指導範圍的高端高出 800 萬美元。

  • Third quarter net interest expense was approximately $11 million, and we incurred a taxed expense of approximately $19 million in the quarter. We delivered third quarter adjusted net income of approximately $368 million, an increase of approximately $334 million from the year ago period.

    第三季度淨利息支出約為 1100 萬美元,我們在本季度產生了約 1900 萬美元的應稅支出。我們第三季度實現了約 3.68 億美元的調整後淨收入,比去年同期增加了約 3.34 億美元。

  • As a result, we reported adjusted diluted earnings of $0.67 per share for the third quarter. We delivered record third quarter EBITDA of approximately $793 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew $288 million year-on-year on $374 million of incremental revenue growth, representing approximately 77% fall-through.

    因此,我們報告第三季度調整後的攤薄收益為每股 0.67 美元。我們實現了創紀錄的第三季度 EBITDA 約 7.93 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 2.88 億美元,收入增長 3.74 億美元,下降約 77%。

  • Let me now provide some key balance sheet and cash flow metrics. Cash flow from operations for the third quarter was $679 million. Gross CapEx for the quarter was $613 million or roughly 30% of revenue. At the end of the third quarter, our combined total of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities stood at approximately $3.5 billion, an increase of roughly $200 million from the previous quarter.

    現在讓我提供一些關鍵的資產負債表和現金流量指標。第三季度的運營現金流為 6.79 億美元。本季度的總資本支出為 6.13 億美元,約佔收入的 30%。在第三季度末,我們的現金、現金等價物和有價證券的總和約為 35 億美元,比上一季度增加了約 2 億美元。

  • Next, let me provide you with our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect total GF revenue to be between $2.05 billion and $2.1 billion. Of this, we expect non-wafer revenue to be approximately 11% to 12% of total revenue. We expect adjusted gross profit to be between $595 million and $630 million. Included in this guidance is a sequential reduction in capacity utilization, particularly with respect to our 200-millimeter fabs.

    接下來,讓我為您提供我們對第四季度的展望。我們預計格芯總收入將在 20.5 億美元至 21 億美元之間。其中,我們預計非晶圓收入約佔總收入的 11% 至 12%。我們預計調整後的毛利潤將在 5.95 億美元至 6.3 億美元之間。本指南中包括產能利用率的連續降低,特別是對於我們的 200 毫米晶圓廠。

  • The expected reduction in the fourth quarter wafer starts, which support first quarter revenue decreased our gross margin guidance range by approximately $50 million. We expect adjusted operating profit to be between $365 million and $420 million. Excluding share-based compensation for the fourth quarter, we expect total OpEx to be between $210 million and $230 million.

    支持第一季度收入的第四季度晶圓開工的預期減少使我們的毛利率指導範圍減少了約 5000 萬美元。我們預計調整後的營業利潤將在 3.65 億美元至 4.2 億美元之間。不計第四季度的股票薪酬,我們預計運營支出總額將在 2.1 億美元至 2.3 億美元之間。

  • At the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect share-based compensation to be approximately $36 million, of which $13 million is related to cost of goods sold and approximately $23 million is related to OpEx. We expect net interest and other expense for the quarter to be approximately $2 million and tax expense to be roughly $22 million.

    在我們第四季度指引的中點,我們預計基於股票的薪酬約為 3600 萬美元,其中 1300 萬美元與銷售成本相關,約 2300 萬美元與運營支出相關。我們預計本季度的淨利息和其他費用約為 200 萬美元,稅收費用約為 2200 萬美元。

  • We are also on track to close the sale of the East Fishkill facility at the end of the year. As a result, we expect to record a gain on sale in the fourth quarter that will be in the range of $350 million to $400 million. Excluding this onetime gain on sale, we expect adjusted net income to be between $337 million and $400 million.

    我們也有望在今年年底完成對 East Fishkill 設施的出售。因此,我們預計第四季度的銷售收益將在 3.5 億美元至 4 億美元之間。排除這一一次性銷售收益,我們預計調整後的淨收入將在 3.37 億美元至 4 億美元之間。

  • On a fully diluted share count of 554 million, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be between $0.61 and $0.72. Including the onetime gain on sale, we expect adjusted EPS to be between $1.24 and $1.44. For the fourth quarter, we expect D&A to be about $405 million, of which 90% is related to the cost of goods sold. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $770 million and $840 million.

    在 5.54 億股完全攤薄後,我們預計第四季度調整後的每股收益將在 0.61 美元至 0.72 美元之間。包括一次性銷售收益,我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 1.24 美元至 1.44 美元之間。對於第四季度,我們預計 D&A 約為 4.05 億美元,其中 90% 與銷售商品成本有關。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 7.7 億美元至 8.4 億美元之間。

  • For the full year 2022, we now expect total gross CapEx to be between $3 billion and $3.3 billion, impacted primarily by the well-known delays in capital equipment. Despite the delay, we are on track to meet all of our material customer commitments for the year. As we look forward, we will be working closely with our customers and partnership, and we'll provide an update on our 2023 CapEx at the end of the year.

    對於 2022 年全年,我們現在預計總資本支出將在 30 億美元至 33 億美元之間,主要受到眾所周知的資本設備延誤的影響。儘管出現延誤,我們仍有望兌現今年所有重要的客戶承諾。展望未來,我們將與我們的客戶和合作夥伴密切合作,我們將在年底提供我們 2023 年資本支出的更新。

  • While we have tightly managed expenses over the past year, we are nevertheless paying close attention to the uncertain macroeconomic conditions and to our customers' recent commentary regarding 2023 demand. We are working closely with our customers to monitor demand. And as Tom mentioned, we are proactively containing cost and accelerating previously planned productivity initiatives.

    儘管我們在過去一年中嚴格控制了開支,但我們仍密切關注不確定的宏觀經濟狀況以及客戶最近對 2023 年需求的評論。我們正在與客戶密切合作以監控需求。正如湯姆所提到的,我們正在主動控製成本並加速先前計劃的生產力計劃。

  • Though we are still sizing these initiatives, we expect them to deliver annualized savings of approximately $200 million, the majority of which will be in OpEx. 2Neither these savings nor any related onetime charges are incorporated in today's guidance. We will provide you updates on these initiatives as appropriate.

    儘管我們仍在調整這些計劃的規模,但我們預計它們每年可節省約 2 億美元,其中大部分將用於運營支出。 2這些節省或任何相關的一次性費用均未包含在今天的指南中。我們將酌情為您提供有關這些舉措的最新信息。

  • To summarize the quarter, strong operational execution enabled us to deliver third quarter results that were significantly better than the high end of our guidance range. We are continuing to execute the strategic plan we outlined to our stakeholders at IPO, and we are proactively taking action to position the company to outperform irrespective of macroeconomic conditions.

    總結本季度,強大的運營執行使我們能夠提供明顯優於我們指導範圍高端的第三季度業績。我們將繼續執行我們在首次公開募股時向利益相關者概述的戰略計劃,並且我們正在積極採取行動,使公司無論宏觀經濟狀況如何都能超越大盤。

  • With that, let's open the call for Q&A. Operator?

    有了這個,讓我們打開問答電話。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Great job on the quarterly execution and strong profitability. The industry's softness will be, I think, a good assessment, right, of the team's technology and portfolio differentiation. So if I look at your total revenue pipeline, LTAs, renegotiated LTAs, standard book and ship and even current negotiations on new business, I know that you guys were previously anticipating overall pricing to be up next year. But obviously, given the challenging and changing demand dynamics, maybe you guys can just articulate what the overall pricing profile now looks like for 2023? And then I have a follow-up.

    在季度執行和強勁的盈利能力方面做得很好。我認為,行業的疲軟將是對團隊技術和產品組合差異化的一個很好的評估。因此,如果我查看你們的總收入渠道、長期協議、重新談判的長期協議、標準書籍和船舶,甚至當前關於新業務的談判,我知道你們之前預計明年整體價格會上漲。但顯然,鑑於充滿挑戰和不斷變化的需求動態,也許你們可以清楚地說明 2023 年的整體定價概況?然後我有一個跟進。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Harlan, I'll start on that one and then maybe, Tom, you can add some color. We believe that we're still in a relatively constructive pricing environment, particularly with regards to our LTAs. Average selling price per wafer, as you've seen, has increased again this quarter, that's 6 consecutive quarters of sequential increase, really consistent with our previous commentary. Based upon what we see, we continue to expect modest pricing increases into 2023. Tom, anything you'd add?

    哈倫,我會從那個開始,然後也許,湯姆,你可以添加一些顏色。我們認為,我們仍處於相對建設性的定價環境中,特別是在我們的長期協議方面。如您所見,本季度每片晶圓的平均售價再次上漲,這是連續 6 個季度連續上漲,與我們之前的評論一致。根據我們所看到的,我們繼續預計到 2023 年價格會適度上漲。湯姆,你有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll try to add a little bit more strategically. When we look at the assessment, I think to a company, we're all aligned that we're still going to double in the next -- double this industry by the end of the decade. When we look at the market opportunity in our SAM, we see that market opportunity growing, but more importantly, where differentiation matters where we can continue to drive our single-source business, create differentiation to create value for our customers and capture for ourselves. We see that market in excess of $20 billion of really specialty type of applications that we can go out and win.

    是的。我將嘗試更具戰略性地添加一些內容。當我們查看評估時,我認為對於一家公司,我們都一致認為我們仍將在未來翻一番——到本世紀末這個行業翻一番。當我們審視 SAM 中的市場機會時,我們看到市場機會在增長,但更重要的是,在差異化很重要的地方,我們可以繼續推動我們的單一來源業務,創造差異化,為我們的客戶創造價值並為我們自己創造價值。我們看到這個市場有超過 200 億美元的真正專業類型的應用程序,我們可以走出去並贏得勝利。

  • So as long as we continue to focus on our execution of our R&D road map, understanding the end markets we play in, differentiating to support those end markets. I don't think this is the end of that ability for us to continue to capture value for our business as we work through this macro environment.

    因此,只要我們繼續專注於我們的研發路線圖的執行,了解我們所從事的終端市場,差異化以支持這些終端市場。我不認為這是我們在這個宏觀環境中工作時繼續為我們的業務獲取價值的能力的終結。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • And then given the lower demand profile of your customers in the industry, it's clear, obviously, as you said as well, next year will be challenging. I assume it's too early for the team to articulate a full year 2023 view on wafer shipment to revenue. So maybe if you could just help us think about a framework for the gross margins next year, right, with utilization is most likely coming down but with many positive offsets like increasing wafer pricing, as you just mentioned, you've got the East Fishkill transition and continued depreciation roll off. So give us the framework for how to think about gross margins.

    然後,鑑於您在行業中的客戶需求較低,很明顯,正如您所說,明年將充滿挑戰。我認為該團隊現在就 2023 年全年晶圓出貨量對收入的看法還為時過早。因此,也許您可以幫助我們考慮明年的毛利率框架,對,利用率很可能會下降,但有許多積極的抵消因素,例如提高晶圓價格,正如您剛才提到的,您已經擁有了 East Fishkill過渡和持續折舊滾降。因此,請為我們提供如何考慮毛利率的框架。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Maybe -- as you know, Harlan, we guide one quarter at a time, but maybe I could broaden out the way we think about what we need to focus on as we head into perhaps times that are perhaps more challenging. When times are more challenging, you tend to focus on the variables that you can control. And when we sit down as a management team, and we think about those variables, the first one is the one that Tom mentioned, differentiation.

    當然。也許——正如你所知,哈倫,我們一次指導一個季度,但也許我可以拓寬我們思考我們需要關注的內容的方式,因為我們進入了可能更具挑戰性的時代。當時間更具挑戰性時,您傾向於關注您可以控制的變量。當我們作為一個管理團隊坐下來考慮這些變量時,第一個就是湯姆提到的差異化。

  • So we've realigned the company to be more focused with respect to product management, development of differentiated technology. We believe we're making progress towards being more differentiated. We had another quarter, about 90% of our design wins were single sourced. We're about 90% for the year, year-to-date, on design wins being single source. So we feel like we're making good progress there.

    因此,我們對公司進行了重新調整,使其更加專注於產品管理和差異化技術的開發。我們相信我們正在朝著更加差異化的方向取得進展。我們還有一個季度,我們大約 90% 的設計勝利都是單一來源的。今年迄今為止,我們大約 90% 的設計勝利是單一來源。所以我們覺得我們在那裡取得了良好的進展。

  • With respect to pricing, as Tom mentioned, we have seen pricing increase this year sequentially. We think it's going to modestly increase next year. We think that's directly correlated to our ability to differentiate cost containments. You heard on the prepared commentary that we're aggressively controlling discretionary spending, travel, entertainment, professional services. We're accelerating some of our previously planned productivity initiatives.

    正如湯姆所說,在定價方面,我們已經看到今年的定價環比上漲。我們認為明年會小幅增長。我們認為這與我們區分成本控制的能力直接相關。您在準備好的評論中聽說我們正在積極控制可自由支配的支出、旅行、娛樂和專業服務。我們正在加速我們之前計劃的一些生產力計劃。

  • And then finally, CapEx, we can control the rate and pace of our growth. We're moderating our CapEx to better match our customers' demand forecast, while we're also considering our free cash profile. So ultimately, we believe that, that helps us control the utilization, we believe that's directly correlated to gross margin. And so we're focusing on the things that we can control. We feel like we had a pretty good third quarter, and we feel still quite optimistic for the future.

    最後,資本支出,我們可以控制增長的速度和步伐。我們正在調整我們的資本支出以更好地匹配客戶的需求預測,同時我們也在考慮我們的自由現金狀況。因此,最終,我們認為這有助於我們控制利用率,我們認為這與毛利率直接相關。所以我們專注於我們可以控制的事情。我們覺得我們有一個相當不錯的第三季度,我們對未來仍然很樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾(Ross Seymore)。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Tom or Dave, one for you on linearity of demand. Obviously, we've seen what a lot of your fabless customers had to say, third quarters were generally okay, but fourth quarter guides were pretty darn weak. I know you talked about utilization coming down, but any additional color on the linearity of demand that you've seen during the third quarter and thus far in the fourth quarter? .

    Tom 或 Dave,為您提供線性需求。顯然,我們已經看到很多無晶圓廠客戶不得不說,第三季度總體上還不錯,但第四季度的指南非常薄弱。我知道您談到了利用率下降,但是您在第三季度和第四季度迄今為止看到的需求線性度還有什麼其他顏色嗎? .

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. I think with respect to linearity, Ross, you see that's -- in our guide, we've guided from $2.05 billion to about $2.1 billion. At the midpoint, that would be relatively flat on a quarter-to-quarter basis. I think if you were to rewind a couple of quarters, we would have expected a little bit more growth sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. So I think you're seeing the impact of some of those customers that have reduced their future demand.

    當然。我認為關於線性度,羅斯,你看,在我們的指南中,我們已經從 20.5 億美元增加到了 21 億美元左右。在中點,這將在一個季度到一個季度的基礎上相對持平。我認為,如果您倒退幾個季度,我們預計從第三季度到第四季度的連續增長會有所增加。所以我認為你看到了一些減少未來需求的客戶的影響。

  • With respect to linearity into 2023, as you know, we guide one quarter at a time. But as you've heard from many customers, as we're hearing from our customers, we think the first half of 2023 is probably the trough based on what we're hearing. It's probably more likely than not the first quarter, but we continue to refine and assess that demand based upon our collaboration with customers.

    如您所知,關於到 2023 年的線性度,我們一次指導四分之一。但是正如您從許多客戶那裡聽到的那樣,正如我們從客戶那裡聽到的那樣,根據我們聽到的情況,我們認為 2023 年上半年可能是低谷。第一季度可能更有可能,但我們會根據與客戶的合作繼續完善和評估需求。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • And I'll just add 2 points to that. One is our underutilization is predominantly, and I mean predominantly our 200-millimeter, not our 300-millimeter facilities. And even with all of that, we still expect 2023 to be a modest up year for us.

    我將對此加 2 分。一是我們的未充分利用主要是,我的意思主要是我們的 200 毫米,而不是我們的 300 毫米設施。即便如此,我們仍然預計 2023 年對我們來說將是一個溫和的增長年。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And Tom, just a clarification there. Do you mean that on the revenue side or the wafer output side or both?

    還有湯姆,這裡只是一個澄清。你的意思是在收入方面還是在晶圓輸出方面或兩者兼而有之?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm talking revenue for [2023.]

    我說的是 [2023.] 的收入。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And then I guess for my follow-up, the big picture question people obviously have is with the direction macro is going, and I appreciate the color of the bottoming in the first half of the year. But I want to dig deeper into the LTAs. It's good to see that they're expanding in both their magnitude and the number of customers that you have, but people still wonder about the value of those LTAs.

    然後我想對於我的後續行動,人們顯然有的大局問題是宏觀走向,我很欣賞上半年觸底的顏色。但我想更深入地研究 LTA。很高興看到他們的規模和客戶數量都在擴大,但人們仍然想知道這些長期協議的價值。

  • So talk a little bit about the framework, what it's allowing you to do? Is the value that you're holding customers to the exact amount they at one point agreed to? Or is it more so that it allows a framework for negotiations on expanding longer term? Just trying to figure out the value of the LTAs and what gives you comfort in that view for 2023 given the macro trends right now?

    所以談談框架,它允許你做什麼?您為客戶提供的價值是否與他們在某一時刻同意的確切金額一致?還是更多地允許它為擴大長期談判提供一個框架?只是想弄清楚長期協議的價值,鑑於目前的宏觀趨勢,什麼能讓你對 2023 年的這種看法感到安慰?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Really, I'd kind of direct it back to -- the question back to Tom's prepared commentary. And really, I'll use as an example, probably the most recent amendment that we've made to an LTA. So we had a customer that reached out to us about revising downward their demand a little bit in the fourth quarter. And then subsequently in 2023, most of it kind of centered up on the first half.

    是的。真的,我有點想把它引回——回到湯姆準備好的評論的問題。實際上,我將使用可能是我們對 LTA 所做的最新修訂作為示例。因此,我們有一位客戶與我們聯繫,要求在第四季度稍微下調他們的需求。然後在 2023 年,大部分時間都集中在上半年。

  • When we sat down to talk to that customer, and as we said previously, the LTA provided a framework of tools such that we can engage with each other in a pretty constructive way, and as Tom mentioned in his commentary, the ultimate outcome of that collaboration was that we had a capacity underutilization fee.

    當我們坐下來與該客戶交談時,正如我們之前所說,LTA 提供了一個工具框架,以便我們可以以非常有建設性的方式相互交流,正如湯姆在他的評論中提到的那樣,最終結果合作是我們有一個容量未充分利用的費用。

  • We also had increased pricing for the remainder of the demand in 2023, and then we had the appending of demand and the extension of the agreement by an incremental year that extended that contract. I believe it was out into 2026, that extra year. And so that would be an example of the LTA framework, enabling both parties to sit down in a constructive way to handle not only short-term perturbations, but also to continue to handle what we see as long-term growth in the industry, handled that in a very constructive manner.

    我們還提高了 2023 年剩餘需求的定價,然後我們增加了需求並將協議延長了一年,從而延長了該合同。我相信它已經到了 2026 年,即額外的一年。所以這將是 LTA 框架的一個例子,使雙方能夠以建設性的方式坐下來,不僅處理短期擾動,而且繼續處理我們認為的行業長期增長,處理以非常建設性的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could talk about the utilization shift that you talked about. And did I hear you right, there's a $50 million impact in Q4. I guess, wouldn't the impact be closer matched to the revenue impact? And I guess, is there something specific that's sort of driving you to take that action?

    我想知道你是否可以談談你談到的利用率轉變。我沒聽錯,第四季度有 5000 萬美元的影響。我想,這種影響不是更接近收入影響嗎?我想,是不是有什麼特定的東西促使你採取這種行動?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Joe. Specifically, what we were trying to articulate with the prepared commentary was the gross margin range would have been $50 million higher if we had continued to run at kind of full utilization like we were running at in prior quarters.

    當然,喬。具體來說,我們試圖用準備好的評論來表達的是,如果我們繼續像前幾個季度那樣以充分利用的方式運行,毛利率範圍將增加 5000 萬美元。

  • The reason you start to see an impact in the fourth quarter is because the wafers that are started in the fourth quarter are essentially a lot of the wafer outs that are in the first quarter, but you start to accrue those underutilization charges in the fourth quarter, they start to impact that particular period. And so that's why we commented that we would have had a range that was essentially $50 million higher on the gross margin line if that underutilization did not occur or was not occurring.

    您在第四季度開始看到影響的原因是因為第四季度開始的晶圓基本上是第一季度的大量晶圓輸出,但是您在第四季度開始累積那些未充分利用的費用,它們開始影響那個特定時期。因此,這就是為什麼我們評論說,如果沒有發生或沒有發生未充分利用的情況,我們的毛利率線將高出 5000 萬美元。

  • Did you have a follow-up, Joe? .

    你有後續行動嗎,喬? .

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Yes. I think in terms of bigger picture, can you talk about conversations that you're having with people that aren't under LTA, to the extent that you might have some capacity free up here. I would assume that there's a lot of people with automotive and industrial type businesses that are really interesting to you that sort of would want to work with you. Is there opportunity around that? And do you see opportunity to potentially sort of reposition some of the smartphone stuff over towards automotive, industrial? .

    是的。我認為從更大的角度來看,您能否談談您與不受 LTA 約束的人的對話,在某種程度上您可能有一些可用的容量。我假設有很多從事汽車和工業類型業務的人對你來說真的很有趣,他們會想和你一起工作。有機會嗎?您是否看到了將一些智能手機產品重新定位到汽車、工業領域的機會? .

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • That's absolutely the case. There's still strong strength in auto, you're hearing that across the board. And we're opportunistic. Many of our technologies that we support, smart mobile devices, 40-nanometer with embedded memory, our BCD technologies, using it as an opportunity to remix towards auto.

    絕對是這樣。汽車領域仍然有很強的實力,你已經全面聽到了這一點。我們是機會主義的。我們支持的許多技術、智能移動設備、帶有嵌入式內存的 40 納米技術、我們的 BCD 技術,都利用它作為向汽車重新混合的機會。

  • The key here is to make sure that we sell every wafer we can, we sell where we're the most differentiated as we honor our LTAs. And so we're constantly looking to optimize our business to match the demand across the different end markets and leveraging the ability to not only do a 1-for-1 replacement, a 40-nanometer part with another, what we call fung our capacity. If we have more demand on 55-nanometer how can we fung our 40-nanometer corridor to make more 55. So that's a constant balancing act we do with our team and being very proactive to the markets we can serve.

    這裡的關鍵是確保我們盡可能銷售每一個晶圓,我們在我們最有差異化的地方銷售,因為我們尊重我們的 LTA。因此,我們一直在尋求優化我們的業務以匹配不同終端市場的需求,並利用這種能力,不僅可以一對一更換,還可以用另一個 40 納米的零件進行替換,我們稱之為“fung our capacity” .如果我們對 55 納米有更多需求,我們如何利用 40 納米走廊來製造更多 55。所以這是我們與團隊所做的不斷平衡的行為,並且對我們可以服務的市場非常積極主動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • In the scenario of sales being, say, modestly up next year, how should we think about gross margins? Can they continue to increase? And what will be the benefit that you might see from the East Fishkill fab exit? .

    例如,在明年銷售額小幅增長的情況下,我們應該如何考慮毛利率?他們能繼續增加嗎?您可能會從 East Fishkill 晶圓廠出口看到什麼好處? .

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. So -- so as we mentioned, Vivek, we do believe that pricing will be modestly up next year. We believe that we have the opportunity based upon what we currently see to have revenue growth that's modest next year. I'm not going to provide guidance on gross margin. But clearly, what you're seeing from us is you're seeing us proactively position the company such that we can perform irrespective of the market environment.

    是的。所以 - 正如我們提到的,Vivek,我們確實相信明年的定價會適度上漲。我們相信,根據我們目前看到的明年收入增長溫和的情況,我們有機會。我不會就毛利率提供指導。但很明顯,您從我們那裡看到的是,您看到我們積極定位公司,以便我們可以在不受市場環境影響的情況下執行。

  • So we are taking actions now to contain costs, both on the OpEx side as well as on the COGS side. And we believe that, that positions us regardless of the market that we enter into. Did you have a follow-up, Vivek?

    因此,我們現在正在採取措施控制運營支出和 COGS 方面的成本。而且我們相信,無論我們進入哪個市場,這都會使我們處於有利地位。你有後續行動嗎,維韋克?

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • So Tom, over the last few weeks, we have seen a lot more details about U.S. restrictions on China. And I was hoping you could give us a flavor of if your customer discussions have changed in any way? Looking out over the next several years, do you see more customers wanting to engage with GlobalFoundries, given your unique footprint?

    所以湯姆,在過去的幾周里,我們看到了更多關於美國對中國限制的細節。而且我希望你能給我們一個感覺,如果你的客戶討論發生了任何變化?展望未來幾年,鑑於您獨特的足跡,您是否看到更多客戶希望與 GlobalFoundries 合作?

  • And then the second part of that is as you look at, especially the automotive market, do you see more customers wanting to engage with you with prepayment? I think you mentioned that you expect your automotive revenue to be $1 billion annualized next year. How much of that is from existing customers, how much of that is from newer customers?

    然後第二部分是當你看到的,尤其是汽車市場,你是否看到更多的客戶希望通過預付款與你互動?我想你提到你預計明年你的汽車收入將達到 10 億美元。其中有多少來自現有客戶,有多少來自新客戶?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • So yes, let me start with the first part about the geopolitical dynamics and the restrictions out of China. If you recall, GF's exposure to what we call direct business in China is under 10%. And so that end of our business is -- it remains intact. But more so than not, customers are starting to think longer term, how do they get a better balance in their sourcing.

    所以,是的,讓我從關於地緣政治動態和中國限制的第一部分開始。如果您還記得,格芯在中國的直接業務敞口不到 10%。因此,我們業務的最終目的是 - 它保持不變。但更重要的是,客戶開始思考更長遠的問題,他們如何在採購中獲得更好的平衡。

  • And so if you won't see them doing this thing, I have a part that's already in existence. Let me go move it to a better footprint because that's redundant engineering. What we're really starting to see them think about is that next product family. The kind of the design wins that we'll get going forward that will turn into revenue 12 to 18 months later.

    所以如果你看不到他們做這件事,我有一個已經存在的部分。讓我把它移到更好的地方,因為那是多餘的工程。我們真正開始看到他們考慮的是下一個產品系列。我們將繼續推進的那種設計將在 12 到 18 個月後轉化為收入。

  • So I view 2023 to be the year where we'll start to see more and more products come our way for that next-generation product that then become revenue starting 2024 and beyond. And then another dynamic that we're seeing taking place, we talk about single source business. We still have a second source business. But in some cases, we're starting to see customers move us from being the second source to being the prime source, giving us the preferential supply side of that. Again, part of this rebalancing of their supply chain to be a little bit more geographic spread around the globe, which, as you know, as you stated, plays well into GF's footprint.

    因此,我認為 2023 年我們將開始看到越來越多的產品出現在我們的下一代產品中,然後從 2024 年及以後開始成為收入。然後我們看到發生的另一個動態,我們談論單一來源業務。我們還有第二個來源業務。但在某些情況下,我們開始看到客戶將我們從第二來源轉變為主要來源,從而為我們提供了優惠的供應方。再次,他們的供應鏈重新平衡的一部分是在全球範圍內更加地理分佈,正如你所知,正如你所說,這很好地融入了 GF 的足跡。

  • The second part of your question was on automotive. Look, our design wins already in the pipeline get us to that 2023 annualized run rate, David cited in his prepared remarks and you just quoted that $1 billion run rate. But I would tell you, we are engaging -- it's the fastest-growing market for us. We're engaging each and every day.

    你問題的第二部分是關於汽車的。看,我們的設計勝利已經在醞釀中,讓我們達到了 2023 年的年化運行率,大衛在他準備好的評論中引用了,而你剛剛引用了 10 億美元的運行率。但我會告訴你,我們正在參與——這對我們來說是增長最快的市場。我們每天都在參與。

  • And I think you're going to see coming out of this, a different economic model in the industry where when there's pass-through charges to a very complicated supply chain that automakers will want to play -- have a stronger relationship with foundries so that they don't have to bear the brunt of pass-through of cost that goes through the supply chain and get [work] done. And I would just tell you to stay tuned on that. And I think this is something we're seeing developing real-time in front of us.

    我認為你會看到這種情況的出現,一種不同的行業經濟模式,當汽車製造商想要參與的非常複雜的供應鏈出現轉嫁費用時——與代工廠建立更牢固的關係,這樣他們不必首當其沖地承擔通過供應鏈的成本傳遞並完成[工作]。我只想告訴你繼續關注這一點。我認為這是我們看到的實時發展的東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • So can you just provide a little more color on the pushouts and cancellations you're getting for next year? Maybe talk about which end markets and what the total, I guess, amount has been?

    那麼,您能否為明年的推出和取消提供更多顏色?也許談談哪些終端市場和總量,我猜,數量是多少?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. I'll try to provide the amount of color that I can. Obviously, we need to steer clear of any particular customers or any sensitive information. But when we sit down with our customers, and let's characterize it as a handful of customers. So we've got about 38 LTAs now up to from last quarter. We've sat down and had discussions with a handful of our customers to really look at their forecasted demand for 2023. And I think the first thing that I would note is that these LTAs are all multiyear in length. In fact, the duration is probably sitting closer to 4, maybe slightly over 4 years right now.

    當然。我會盡量提供盡可能多的顏色。顯然,我們需要避開任何特定客戶或任何敏感信息。但是當我們與客戶坐下來時,讓我們將其描述為少數客戶。因此,截至上個季度,我們現在有大約 38 個長期協議。我們已經坐下來與少數客戶進行了討論,以真正了解他們對 2023 年的預測需求。我想我首先要注意的是,這些長期協議都是多年的。事實上,持續時間可能接近 4 年,現在可能略超過 4 年。

  • And so we're not talking about the entire LTA. We're talking about one period, on near-term period, specifically -- seems to be specifically more related to the first half at this stage of 2023. And so those discussions tend to be centered up around end markets such as smart mobile where, as you know, there's an inventory correction underway. The high end of that market still seems to be holding up fairly well. The low and the mid-tier of that market tends to be undergoing some inventory correction.

    所以我們不是在談論整個 LTA。我們談論的是一個時期,特別是近期時期——似乎與 2023 年的這個階段的上半年更相關。因此,這些討論往往集中在智能移動等終端市場上。 ,如您所知,正在進行庫存調整。該市場的高端市場似乎仍然保持得相當好。該市場的低端和中端市場往往正在經歷一些庫存調整。

  • I would say that's the largest segment that we've had discussions on. I think most of the customers, that handful of customers have tended to be more centered up on that space, the discussions have been quite constructive. The LTAs continue to remain intact in that framework that we discussed earlier and those variables involved in that framework have all been tremendously helpful towards that collaboration. Did you have a follow-up?

    我想說這是我們討論過的最大的部分。我認為大多數客戶,少數客戶往往更關注該領域,討論非常有建設性。 LTA 在我們之前討論的那個框架中繼續保持完整,並且該框架中涉及的那些變量都對這種合作非常有幫助。你有跟進嗎?

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • Yes. What's the total impact? So how much revenue is getting pushed out or canceled? And maybe talk about how many LTAs have been renegotiated so far and what the total amount of dollars has come out of them?

    是的。總的影響是什麼?那麼有多少收入被擠出或取消呢?也許談談到目前為止已經重新談判了多少長期協議以及從中獲得的總金額是多少?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Well, I would say that -- I would characterize the total LTA dollar amount as essentially being the same, if not slightly more.

    好吧,我會這麼說——我認為 LTA 的總金額基本上是相同的,如果不是稍微多一點的話。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • For next year?

    明年呢?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No, for the total length of the contract. So we look at these engagements as multiyear in length. I think what we'll comment on for next year is the commentary that we've already provided. And that is that we expect 2023 based upon what we currently see, we expect 2023 to continue to be a modest growth year for us.

    不,對於合同的總長度。因此,我們將這些約定視為多年。我認為我們明年要評論的是我們已經提供的評論。也就是說,根據我們目前所看到的情況,我們預計 2023 年,我們預計 2023 年對我們來說將繼續是適度增長的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自與 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. First question for Tom, maybe just in terms of the change of millimeter wafer demand that you're seeing in the near term, so I totally understand that a lot of that weakness might be driven by the smart mobile end market segment. I was wondering if you could also talk a bit more about how communications as well as data center and also industrial demand for wafers is playing out in the near term here? Is that still holding up fairly well? Or do you also see some demand indicators of softening exiting this year as well?

    我是 Steven 代表 Krish 打電話來的。湯姆的第一個問題,也許只是你在短期內看到的毫米晶圓需求的變化,所以我完全理解,很多弱點可能是由智能移動終端市場驅動的。我想知道您是否還可以在這裡多談談通信、數據中心以及工業對晶圓的需求在短期內如何發揮作用?這仍然保持得很好嗎?或者你是否也看到了一些今年疲軟的需求指標?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I think the only end market that continues to outperform is auto. I think we're seeing that. Our customers are seeing that. When you look at some of the growth we've had year-over-year, like at industrial and home IoT, over 80% growth, that's not a sustainable growth rate, right? There probably aren't enough wafers in the world to do that for a decade. But so even though that growth will slow down, it's still a growth opportunity for us. These are important end markets. So I would tell you that growth still is strong.

    看,我認為唯一繼續跑贏大盤的終端市場是汽車。我想我們看到了。我們的客戶正在看到這一點。當您查看我們每年的一些增長時,例如工業和家庭物聯網,超過 80% 的增長,這不是一個可持續的增長率,對吧?十年來,世界上可能沒有足夠的晶圓來做到這一點。但是,即使增長會放緩,這對我們來說仍然是一個增長機會。這些是重要的終端市場。所以我會告訴你,增長仍然很強勁。

  • I think there's the potential for the auto to be the one that never really goes through a cycle in this cycle and it comes out even stronger. And then the rest of them will go in order. I think this is a -- little bit of a lumpy. Not everything went down at once, certain end markets, memory on PCs went kind of first and then others followed. And they'll come back out in that order.

    我認為汽車有可能成為在這個週期中從未真正經歷過一個週期的汽車,而且它變得更加強大。然後其餘的將按順序進行。我認為這有點——有點混亂。並非所有事情都一下子下跌,某些終端市場、PC 上的內存首先下跌,然後其他市場緊隨其後。他們會按這個順序回來。

  • And for us, it's more about making sure that we stay focused on leveraging our capacity in the end markets where there's demand, figuring on how to fung the capacity, do multiple qualifications like we announced in the prepared remarks so that we can use all our capacity to where the demand is. And that's where we keep our focus.

    對我們來說,更重要的是確保我們始終專注於在有需求的終端市場利用我們的產能,弄清楚如何利用產能,像我們在準備好的評論中宣布的那樣進行多項資格認證,以便我們可以使用我們所有的容量到需求所在的地方。這就是我們保持關注的地方。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • Great. One quick one for Dave on the OpEx or cost reductions. I think you mentioned the sort of annualized cost savings run rate of about $200 million. I was wondering if the time line to reach that cost savings run rate is sort of in the next couple of quarters? Or is there possibly some flexibility on when you hit that run rate depending on how the macro (inaudible) plays out next year?

    偉大的。 Dave 在運營支出或成本降低方面的快速解決方案。我想你提到了大約 2 億美元的年化成本節約率。我想知道達到該成本節約運行率的時間線是否在接下來的幾個季度中?或者,取決於明年宏觀(聽不清)如何發揮作用,您何時達到該運行速度可能有一些靈活性?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. We're moving pretty aggressively on the cost containment activities, and of the annualized $200 million, I think our expectation would be to try to get at least half of that next year, if not 3 quarters. So that's the way we're currently thinking about it.

    當然。我們在成本控制活動上採取了相當積極的行動,在年化的 2 億美元中,我認為我們的期望是在明年嘗試至少獲得一半,如果不是 3 個季度的話。這就是我們目前正在考慮的方式。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • Congratulations on the strong results.

    祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Thanks, Steve.

    謝謝,史蒂夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. A couple of follow-ups. I'm wondering if there is any update on the chips -- if there's any update on the CHIPS Act that you can share with us?

    是的。幾個後續。我想知道芯片是否有任何更新——如果您可以與我們分享關於芯片法案的任何更新?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I guess I'll expand your question, what is GF doing with the CHIPS bill? If you roll back to our earnings call last quarter, it was on the actual day the President signed the CHIPS bill. And then the U.S. government is off to the races to figure out how to go deploy this money in a meaningful way to get the outcomes they were looking for. From a GF perspective, we will not put capacity on without customers committed to that demand.

    是的。我想我會擴展你的問題,GF 對 CHIPS 法案做了什麼?如果你回滾上個季度的財報電話會議,那是總統簽署 CHIPS 法案的那一天。然後美國政府開始競相弄清楚如何以有意義的方式部署這筆資金以獲得他們正在尋找的結果。從 GF 的角度來看,如果客戶不滿足這種需求,我們就不會增加產能。

  • And so we're working in parallel, putting our proposal together with the RFPs that will come -- go into Washington in the early part of 2023, in parallel working with our customers to aggregate the type of demand we would need to commit to that kind of build-out. And for us, we think of using the CHIPS bill in kind of 3 buckets.

    因此,我們正在並行工作,將我們的提案與即將到來的 RFP 放在一起——在 2023 年初進入華盛頓,同時與我們的客戶合作,匯總我們需要承諾的需求類型一種擴建。對我們來說,我們考慮使用 3 桶的 CHIPS 賬單。

  • The first is to fill up the expansion of our existing facility in Fab 8 and Malta, New York. The second one would be to create some extra capability of technology in our Burlington, Vermont facility. And then lastly, the longer range play is to go add a modular expansion, new brick-and-mortar, new clean room space in Fab 8 in Malta, New York.

    首先是填補我們在 Fab 8 和紐約馬耳他的現有設施的擴建。第二個是在我們位於佛蒙特州伯靈頓的工廠中創造一些額外的技術能力。最後,更長遠的計劃是在紐約馬耳他的 Fab 8 中添加模塊化擴展、新的實體、新的潔淨室空間。

  • And so that's the order which we think about how we would go add this capacity. The rate and pace at which we do it will be dictated by how quickly our customers are looking for us to create this capacity for them as they think about rebalancing their supply chains and bringing some of that product to the states.

    這就是我們考慮如何增加這個容量的順序。我們這樣做的速度和速度將取決於我們的客戶在考慮重新平衡他們的供應鏈並將部分產品帶到各州時,他們希望我們以多快的速度為他們創造這種能力。

  • I call it the $52 billion question. Because the $52 billion in the CHIPS bill is solving one part of the equation that's going to help create the capacity. The other part of the equation is making sure that the demand finds its way back to the U.S. And that's the part we're all working on now to make sure we can go secure that demand, that certainty of business so that we make these investments with confidence, and we make these investments with the right returns that any business would want. Any other follow-ups to that?

    我稱之為 520 億美元的問題。因為 CHIPS 法案中的 520 億美元正在解決有助於創造產能的方程式的一部分。等式的另一部分是確保需求回到美國。這就是我們現在都在努力的部分,以確保我們能夠確保需求,業務的確定性,以便我們進行這些投資充滿信心,我們以任何企業都想要的正確回報進行這些投資。還有其他後續嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Actually, I do. I think the bigger part of the CHIPS Act that would make the U.S. cost comparable to Italy is the tax credit. And given the NOLs, I think we're all waiting to get more color as how GF would benefit from the dollars of allocation outside of the CapEx rebate. And I'm wondering if there's an update there.

    事實上,我願意。我認為使美國的成本與意大利相當的 CHIPS 法案的更大部分是稅收抵免。鑑於 NOL,我認為我們都在等待獲得更多色彩,因為 GF 將如何從資本支出回扣之外的分配美元中受益。我想知道那裡是否有更新。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes, the investment tax credit, as we read it, is pretty straightforward. And so those are any investments to increase domestic capacity. That tooling and those investments will be available to have a 25% rebate essentially during the next tax filing season. And that rebate is applicable regardless of your net tax paying status.

    是的,正如我們所讀到的,投資稅收抵免非常簡單。因此,這些都是增加國內產能的投資。該工具和這些投資將在下一個納稅申報季節獲得 25% 的回扣。無論您的淨納稅身份如何,該退稅都適用。

  • So our belief is that we will be able to leverage those investment tax credits to accelerate our investments in the U.S. And so while we haven't incorporated any of that into our current numbers, we do have a plan to leverage that opportunity.

    因此,我們的信念是,我們將能夠利用這些投資稅收抵免來加速我們在美國的投資。因此,雖然我們尚未將其中任何一項納入我們目前的數字,但我們確實有計劃利用這一機會。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • I see. And then can I actually have one other follow-up question that has to do...

    我懂了。然後我真的可以有另一個必須做的後續問題......

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Mehdi.

    來吧,邁赫迪。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And that has to do with your days of inventory. I think that increase in days of inventory is a reflection of some of the wafer shipment that may be pushed out because of some weakness in the first half. Is that the right way to think about that uptick in DOI?

    這與您的庫存天數有關。我認為庫存天數的增加反映了由於上半年的一些疲軟,部分晶圓出貨量可能會被推遲。這是考慮 DOI 上升的正確方法嗎?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No. In total, if you go back to the end of last year, and I'm going back to the kind of end of last year balance sheet, 12/31/21, total inventory has grown only about $200 million on a base of about $1 billion. And if you go through and you look at that, our total inventory, about $1.1 billion of WIP, that is all inventory that's in the line that we expect to ship to our customers on a timely basis.

    不。總的來說,如果你回到去年年底,我要回到去年年底的資產負債表,21 年 12 月 31 日,總庫存在基礎上只增長了大約 2 億美元約10億美元。如果你仔細看看,我們的總庫存,大約 11 億美元的在製品,這是我們希望及時運送給客戶的所有庫存。

  • We do not have some large buildup of finished goods inventory. This is work in process that you would expect to grow as you're continuing to increase capacity quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter. And so I would characterize the increase in WIP to date as being very much associated in line with expectation and associated with capacity increases quarter-to-quarter.

    我們沒有大量的成品庫存積累。這是一個在製品,隨著您逐季增加容量,您期望它會增長。因此,我認為迄今為止 WIP 的增加與預期非常相關,並且與季度間的產能增加相關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rajvindra Gill with Needham.

    我們的下一個問題來自於李約瑟的 Rajvindra Gill。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. And congrats on solid results in a very tumultuous environment. Dave, I just wanted to follow up on the CapEx commentary, I think you might have touched upon it a little bit. But how do we think about how you manage CapEx in a potential down cycle? During the IPO process this year and next year, there was a significant ramp in CapEx due to some of the capacity expansion plans you have in place and then it would kind of tailor off in 2024.

    是的。並祝賀在非常動蕩的環境中取得了可靠的結果。戴夫,我只是想跟進資本支出評論,我想你可能已經觸及了一點。但是,我們如何看待您在潛在的下行週期中如何管理資本支出?在今年和明年的 IPO 過程中,由於您制定了一些產能擴張計劃,資本支出顯著增加,然後在 2024 年進行調整。

  • How do you -- what are the drivers or the levers you can push to ratchet back down CapEx if you do see a down cycle or more of a reduction in orders that go beyond just smartphone customers? I'm curious how you're thinking about that over the next year.

    如果您確實看到一個下降週期或更多的訂單減少超出了智能手機客戶的範圍,您如何 - 您可以推動哪些驅動因素或槓桿來減少資本支出?我很好奇你在接下來的一年裡是怎麼想的。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Let me give you some high-level thoughts on CapEx. And I'm going to start with free cash flow, and I'll end with CapEx. Year-to-date cash from operations about $2.1 billion, year-to-date CapEx, just slightly under $2.1 billion. And so as we enter the third quarter from a free cash flow perspective, cash from ops minus CapEx, we're slightly positive on a year in which we've already spent about $2 billion for CapEx. So I would say just as a framework, very good alignment between our cash generation ability and our investment in capacity.

    當然。讓我給你一些關於資本支出的高級想法。我將從自由現金流開始,以資本支出結束。年初至今的運營現金約為 21 億美元,年初至今的資本支出略低於 21 億美元。因此,當我們從自由現金流的角度進入第三季度時,來自運營的現金減去資本支出,我們對我們已經為資本支出花費約 20 億美元的一年持樂觀態度。所以我想說,作為一個框架,我們的現金產生能力和我們的產能投資之間非常吻合。

  • The second thing that I would speak to is our customer demand. So we are actively moving our CapEx to align with our customers' demand. And so while we wanted more CapEx in the early part of this year and our WFE suppliers, they're working hard, were unable to supply us with everything that we needed. We were able to deliver productivity to continue to execute against the LTA commitments that we've made. And so we are banking those productivity gains.

    我要談的第二件事是我們的客戶需求。因此,我們正在積極調整資本支出以符合客戶的需求。因此,雖然我們在今年年初想要更多的資本支出,而且我們的 WFE 供應商正在努力工作,但無法為我們提供所需的一切。我們能夠提供生產力,以繼續執行我們做出的長期協議承諾。因此,我們將這些生產力收益存入銀行。

  • And we're now working with the WFE vendors to make sure that we get the critical pieces of tooling that are necessary to still grow the capacity for that customer demand. And as the demand changes, then we'll move and shift the capacity such that we can keep that capacity as best as we're able and in alignment with that customer demand.

    我們現在正在與 WFE 供應商合作,以確保我們獲得必要的關鍵工具,這些工具仍然是為滿足客戶需求增加容量所必需的。隨著需求的變化,我們將移動和轉移產能,以便我們能夠盡可能地保持產能並與客戶需求保持一致。

  • So our forecast has come down now for the year. Total CapEx for the year is somewhere between, call it, $3 billion to $3.3 billion. As we think about next year, you should think about us considering our free cash flow generation ability in context with our customer demand and trying to match up and align those variables.

    因此,我們對今年的預測現在已經下調。今年的總資本支出介於 30 億美元至 33 億美元之間。當我們考慮明年時,您應該考慮我們根據客戶需求考慮我們的自由現金流生成能力,並嘗試匹配和調整這些變量。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. That's really helpful. And just for my follow-up, you mentioned utilization rates kind of trending a little bit lower in the -- particularly in the 200-millimeter. Wondering if you could quantify what your current utilization rates are going into Q4? And how do we think about the utilization rates going into the first half of 2023 as some of these customers start to reduce orders on the smartphone side?

    是的。這真的很有幫助。就我的後續行動而言,你提到了利用率有點低的趨勢——尤其是在 200 毫米。想知道您是否可以量化第四季度的當前利用率?隨著其中一些客戶開始減少智能手機方面的訂單,我們如何看待進入 2023 年上半年的利用率?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • I'll -- let me provide some commentary. I'll try to keep most of the guidance to one quarter. Third quarter, we were essentially fully utilized, very high 90s as a blended utilization rate. When we look at our guidance for fourth quarter, we're probably in the low to mid-90s type of rate, still very highly or fully utilized on the 300-millimeter side with the negative impact to utilization really being on the 200-millimeter side. With respect to 2023, I'll just kind of go back to our prior statements, which were we still expect 2023 to be a modest growth year for us.

    我將——讓我提供一些評論。我會盡量將大部分指導保持在四分之一。第三季度,我們基本上得到了充分利用,90年代的混合利用率非常高。當我們查看第四季度的指導時,我們可能處於 90 年代中期的低水平,在 300 毫米方面仍然非常高或充分利用,而對利用率的負面影響實際上是在 200 毫米邊。關於 2023 年,我將回到我們之前的陳述,我們仍然預計 2023 年對我們來說將是適度增長的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush.

    我們的下一個問題來自馬特布賴森與韋德布什的對話。

  • Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

    Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

  • It seems like your characterization of the demand environment very much mirrors what your customers are saying. With demand weakness and inventory adjustments predominantly impacting calendar Q4 and the first half of next year, it's good to hear that you're shifting your CapEx plans to fit end market demand.

    看起來您對需求環境的描述很大程度上反映了您的客戶所說的話。由於需求疲軟和庫存調整主要影響第四季度和明年上半年,很高興聽到您正在調整資本支出計劃以適應終端市場需求。

  • I guess my question is, assuming this scenario indeed plays out, should we expect that the $50 million underutilization costs you're calling out, is that a peak underutilization charge? Or can we expect there's greater underutilization in, say, calendar Q1 when it appears conditions will be at their worst?

    我想我的問題是,假設這種情況確實發生了,我們是否應該期望您所要求的 5000 萬美元的未充分利用成本,這是未充分利用的最高費用嗎?或者我們是否可以預期,例如日曆第一季度,當情況出現最差時,會有更大的未充分利用?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. I think I'll just stick with guiding one quarter at a time at this point, Matt. I think what you're hearing us articulate is that we believe our long-term growth prospects remain intact, that we believe we can modestly grow through 2023. But I think you're also hearing us say that we are proactively managing the company for cost containment activities to be able to perform regardless of macroeconomic scenario. So I think we'll standpat on that commentary. Do you have any follow-up questions?

    是的。我想我會堅持一次指導四分之一,馬特。我想你聽到我們說的是,我們相信我們的長期增長前景保持不變,我們相信到 2023 年我們可以適度增長。但我想你也聽到我們說我們正在積極管理公司無論宏觀經濟情況如何,都能夠執行成本控制活動。所以我認為我們會對此評論持保留態度。您有任何後續問題嗎?

  • Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

    Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

  • Yes. My follow-up is when you talk to the expectation of pricing lifts in 2023, should I be thinking about that more as a like-for-like commentary? Or is that more of a statement around where GF's pricing can go given either mix benefits or some sort of premium being attached to locality of supply?

    是的。我的後續行動是,當您談到 2023 年提價的預期時,我是否應該將其更多地視為同類評論?或者,如果考慮到混合收益或某種附加到供應地點的溢價,那麼這是否更像是關於 GF 定價可以去向的聲明?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. So our visibility on pricing, first and foremost, is really grounded in our LTA visibility. So we are continuing to ramp those LTAs. Not all those LTAs went into effect January 1, 2022. They've continued to ramp throughout this year. There's additional LTAs that we're expecting to come online and ramp with volume in 2023, and those LTAs include better pricing.

    當然。因此,我們對定價的可見性首先是基於我們的 LTA 可見性。因此,我們將繼續增加這些長期協議。並非所有這些長期協議都於 2022 年 1 月 1 日生效。它們在今年全年繼續增加。我們預計還有更多的長期協議會在 2023 年上線並增加銷量,這些長期協議包括更好的定價。

  • And so it's hard to separate out some of the like-for-like pricing versus mix, but I think what you're hearing us articulate is that if you took those 2 categories together, you're going to continue to see some very modest uplift in ASP per wafer from 2022 to 2023.

    因此,很難區分一些同類定價與混合定價,但我認為你聽到我們清楚地說,如果你把這兩個類別放在一起,你會繼續看到一些非常溫和的從 2022 年到 2023 年,每片晶圓的 ASP 有所上升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Gerra with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Tristan Gerra 和 Baird。

  • Tristan Gerra - Senior Research Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just looking at your commentary about your expectation that mid next year could be a trough. Is that based on the expectation that the inventory correction actually end at that point? Is that specific to smartphone? And does that mean that you could recapture what you've lost in terms of lower utilization rates in Q4 and potentially in the first half of next year with a rebound in utilization rate in the second half as a result? Understanding your only guide one quarter at a time.

    看看你對明年年中可能是低谷的預期的評論。這是基於庫存修正實際上在那個時候結束的預期嗎?這是智能手機特有的嗎?這是否意味著您可以重新獲得由於第四季度和明年上半年的較低利用率而失去的東西,從而導致下半年的利用率反彈?一次了解您唯一的指南四分之一。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Look, our view on 2023 has really been developed in conjunction with our customers. And so when we think about our future, you think about how much business that we have single source, 90% of design wins, about 2/3 of our volume that we ship today is single source and continuing to grow. And so we work with our customers on their demand profile. And so when we provide some general color commentary on 2023, that sounds similar to that customer base. It's not a surprise.

    是的。看,我們對 2023 年的看法確實是與我們的客戶一起制定的。因此,當我們考慮我們的未來時,您會想一想我們有多少業務是單一來源的,90% 的設計獲勝,我們今天出貨量的大約 2/3 是單一來源並繼續增長。因此,我們與客戶一起研究他們的需求概況。因此,當我們對 2023 年提供一些一般性的顏色評論時,這聽起來與該客戶群相似。這並不奇怪。

  • I'm going to hold off providing additional color on 2023 other than to kind of reiterate some of our prior comments, which was really that based upon our discussions with customers, we think the first half is the trough. We think that it's perhaps more likely than not first quarter versus second quarter, but we'll continue to assess that in collaboration with our customers.

    除了重申我們之前的一些評論之外,我將推遲在 2023 年提供額外的顏色,這實際上是根據我們與客戶的討論,我們認為上半年是低谷。我們認為第一季度與第二季度的可能性可能更大,但我們將繼續與客戶合作評估這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Randy Abrams with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Yes. I wanted to ask a question just about the relative difference 8-inch versus 12-inch. Could you talk on the 12-inch, the drivers for that strength holding resilient? And then also, do you think it's a timing difference where we should see that correction to come through a little bit later?

    好的。是的。我想問一個關於 8 英寸和 12 英寸的相對差異的問題。你能談談 12 英寸,這種力量保持彈性的驅動因素嗎?然後,您是否認為這是一個時間差異,我們應該稍後看到修正?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Again, I'll speak perhaps a bit to our LTAs. Our LTAs really have -- we have very, very good coverage across our 300-millimeter manufacturing base with regards to LTAs. And so that tends to be where we have added the most differentiation. Certainly, we have some differentiation on the 200-millimeter side with SiGe and GaN and some other products that are quite unique. But really, on the 300-millimeter side, we've got a tremendous amount of coverage from LTAs. And so I think from that perspective, that's why you're seeing the 300-millimeter utilization hold up significantly better than the 200-millimeter.

    當然。再一次,我可能會和我們的長期協議談一談。我們的 LTA 確實有——關於 LTA,我們在 300 毫米製造基地有非常非常好的覆蓋率。因此,這往往是我們添加最多差異化的地方。當然,我們在 200 毫米方面與 SiGe 和 GaN 以及其他一些非常獨特的產品有一些差異。但實際上,在 300 毫米方面,我們從 LTA 獲得了大量的覆蓋範圍。所以我認為從這個角度來看,這就是為什麼你看到 300 毫米的利用率明顯優於 200 毫米。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let me add a couple of points here. We happen to also be playing in markets that are holding up better than others. So when we think about high-end handsets, that holds up better than the low-end handsets. We think about the 5G transition, that's still going -- that's still a growth this year in a number of handsets that are 5G enabled, we play in that segment.

    是的。讓我在這裡補充幾點。我們碰巧也參與了比其他市場表現更好的市場。因此,當我們考慮高端手機時,它比低端手機表現得更好。我們考慮到 5G 過渡,這仍在繼續——今年許多支持 5G 的手機仍然在增長,我們在這一領域發揮作用。

  • So we think of data center, we're a strong partner with someone who is gaining share in data center, and we're a supplier to that. So some of the damping we're seeing is not only the breadth of the end markets we play in, but some of the sub parts of that, that are still very strong and some of the customers in those segments that are doing well.

    所以我們想到了數據中心,我們是一個強大的合作夥伴,與在數據中心獲得份額的人是一個強大的合作夥伴,我們是那個的供應商。因此,我們看到的一些阻尼不僅是我們所從事的終端市場的廣度,而且其中的一些子部分仍然非常強大,並且這些細分市場中的一些客戶表現良好。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Good. That's helpful. And the second question I wanted to ask, I wanted to follow up the $200 million OpEx is quite sizable relative to the annual base. Just curious, given the plans to continue to grow the footprint, grow into more specialty, if you could give a few buckets where you're seeing good room to make those type of reductions. And then just one housekeeping. With the CapEx change, how you see the depreciation changing year-over-year into next year?

    好的。這很有幫助。我想問的第二個問題是,我想跟進 2 億美元的運營支出相對於年度基數而言相當可觀。只是好奇,考慮到繼續擴大足蹟的計劃,發展成更多的專業,如果你能提供幾個桶,你認為有很好的空間來減少這些類型。然後只有一個家政服務。隨著資本支出的變化,您如何看待明年的折舊同比變化?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. So let me take those in order here. With respect to OpEx, we've -- rough and tough numbers, it's about $1 billion in OpEx, probably closer to $900 million, if you were to do the rounding $1 billion. So when you think about the split of the $200 million annualized, you're probably talking 2/3, 1/3 OpEx versus COGS. So when you think about that type of spend and you think about the opportunities that we have in those areas, I think between professional services, travel, entertainment, labor, of course, we're looking at all of the levers for addressing our spending to be able to enter any environment.

    當然。所以讓我在這裡整理一下。關於運營支出,我們有一個粗略的數字,運營支出約為 10 億美元,如果按 10 億美元計算,可能接近 9 億美元。因此,當您考慮年化 2 億美元的分成時,您可能會談論 2/3、1/3 的運營支出與銷貨成本。因此,當您考慮這種類型的支出並考慮我們在這些領域擁有的機會時,我認為在專業服務、旅行、娛樂、勞動力之間,當然,我們正在尋找解決我們支出的所有槓桿能夠進入任何環境。

  • And so I think we've got -- we've got opportunities in all those areas to become more productive. And quite frankly, we had a series of plans to drive productivity over a multiyear period. And so I would characterize a lot of this as kind of the acceleration of some of those plans versus having to create or craft new ones as we go. So I think that's where we stand with respect to OpEx. We're assessing that today. As I mentioned, we'll provide more details as we continue that assessment.

    所以我認為我們已經 - 我們在所有這些領域都有機會變得更有效率。坦率地說,我們制定了一系列計劃來在多年內提高生產力。因此,我將其中很多描述為加速其中一些計劃,而不是在我們進行時創建或製作新計劃。所以我認為這就是我們在運營支出方面的立場。我們今天正在評估這一點。正如我所提到的,我們將在繼續評估時提供更多詳細信息。

  • With regards to CapEx and managing CapEx with respect to gross margin as well as a percentage of revenue, I think what we've been able to do this year is we've been able to drive more productivity this year than we previously expected. And so while we were delayed in terms of receiving new equipment to be able to ultimately deliver more wafers, we were able to find a way in credit to 15,000 hard-working employees that we're able to find a way to drive that productivity to deliver those wafers without some of those tool shipments.

    關於資本支出和管理資本支出的毛利率以及收入百分比,我認為我們今年能夠做到的是,我們今年能夠提高生產力,超出我們之前的預期。因此,雖然我們在接收新設備以最終能夠交付更多晶圓方面有所延遲,但我們能夠找到一種方法來感謝 15,000 名辛勤工作的員工,我們能夠找到一種方法來提高生產力在沒有這些工具的情況下交付這些晶圓。

  • So that created the opportunity for us to push out some of the CapEx and better match some of that CapEx with our customers' demand. That's something that we've been able to do kind of through the latter half of this year. It's something that as we head into 2023, we expect to be able to continue to do, drive productivity and match our utilization as well as our capacity expansions up to customers' demand.

    因此,這為我們創造了推出部分資本支出並更好地將部分資本支出與客戶需求相匹配的機會。這是我們在今年下半年能夠做到的事情。隨著我們進入 2023 年,我們希望能夠繼續這樣做,提高生產力並匹配我們的利用率以及我們的產能擴張以滿足客戶的需求。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • We'll take one last question, please.

    請回答最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from the line of Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James.

    我們的最後一個問題來自梅麗莎費爾班克斯和雷蒙德詹姆斯的對話。

  • Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

    Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

  • Great. I just have a couple of quick ones. I know you're tired of talking about 2023 expectations. But with the auto growth rate, it seems to imply a pretty steep ramp to get to that $1 billion run rate target. Is there any sort of linearity that we should be assuming? As in, is this tied to model year launches driving more of a step function increase kind of toward the back half of the year? Or should it be a smoother path through the year?

    偉大的。我只有幾個快速的。我知道您已經厭倦了談論 2023 年的期望。但隨著汽車的增長率,這似乎意味著要達到 10 億美元的運行率目標需要相當陡峭的斜坡。我們應該假設某種線性度嗎?例如,這是否與車型年的發布有關,從而在下半年推動更多的階梯函數增加?還是應該在這一年中走得更順暢?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No. We expect it to be pretty linear. We've been capacity constrained on some of our automotive business. In fact, I'd say on the majority of our automotive business. What some of this rebalancing of demand has enabled us to do, it's enabled us to prioritize a little bit more of the automotive demand. You saw us, for example, smart mobile devices decline to 46% of total revenue versus 50% a year ago period.

    不,我們希望它是非常線性的。我們的一些汽車業務一直受到產能限制。事實上,我想說的是我們的大部分汽車業務。這種需求的再平衡使我們能夠做到的,它使我們能夠優先考慮更多的汽車需求。例如,您看到我們的智能移動設備佔總收入的比例從一年前的 50% 下降到 46%。

  • As we continue to grow automotive, you're going to see us have a much better product mix balance that goes out into the marketplace. So we're able to rebalance that capacity as well as add some new capacity in some strategic areas to be able to take automotive up in what we expect to be a pretty linear way throughout next year until by the time we exit fourth quarter next year, we're kind of at that $1 billion annualized run rate.

    隨著我們繼續發展汽車業務,您將看到我們擁有更好的產品組合平衡並進入市場。因此,我們能夠重新平衡產能,並在一些戰略領域增加一些新產能,以便能夠以我們預計明年全年以相當線性的方式發展汽車,直到我們明年第四季度退出,我們的年化運行率為 10 億美元。

  • Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

    Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And maybe just a quick follow-up on the CHIPS Act. To the extent you may be more tightly controlling CapEx in the near term, do you know if there are any restrictions to the incentives? Like once you submit an RFP, do you expect to be bound to that? Or is it too early to know how this is going to kind of flow through?

    好的。完美的。也許只是對 CHIPS 法案的快速跟進。如果您在短期內可能會更嚴格地控制資本支出,您是否知道激勵措施是否有任何限制?就像您提交 RFP 一樣,您是否希望受此約束?或者現在知道這將如何流動還為時過早?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I think that's too early to know. I also think the pragmatic approach is no one wants to see capacity built and not being used. That becomes a real waste for everybody. So I think there'll be a very pragmatic approach. And GF will lead the way in making sure that we have -- not only that we have the right funding model to get the return, but we have the right durability and commitment that we know that capacity will be utilized. And I think the -- Washington will want to see the program executed just that way.

    看,我認為現在知道還為時過早。我還認為,務實的做法是沒有人希望看到能力建設而不被使用。這對每個人來說都是真正的浪費。所以我認為會有一個非常務實的方法。格芯將帶頭確保我們擁有——不僅我們擁有正確的融資模式來獲得回報,而且我們擁有正確的持久性和承諾,我們知道將利用產能。而且我認為——華盛頓會希望看到該計劃以這種方式執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Sukhi Nagesh for closing remarks.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給 Sukhi Nagesh 做結束語。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Liz. Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. Please feel free to reach out if you have any additional information or questions you need answered from GF. Thank you.

    謝謝你,麗茲。謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何其他信息或需要 GF 回答的問題,請隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。