格芯 (GFS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該公司正試圖將其自由現金流的產生與客戶需求相匹配,而 CHIPS 法案將幫助它做到這一點。在汽車市場,我們看到隨著行業加速 5G 並為先進的駕駛輔助系統做準備,設計活動有所增加。我們還看到,在包括電動汽車、車載信息娛樂、車身電子和 ADAS 在內的廣泛應用中贏得的新客戶數量也在增加。

本季度,格芯的多項業務實現了強勁增長。在 5G 低於 6GHz 的射頻收發器市場,這對格芯來說是新的,在領先的手機芯片客戶採用其產品的推動下,該公司預計 2022 年將實現強勁增長。另一個新市場是 WiFi RF SoC,其增長是由格芯的解決方案進入支持 WiFi 6、6E 和 WiFi Mesh 網絡的主要手機型號推動的。

我們的圖像傳感器處理器業務在本季度也強勁增長,因為我們繼續與行業領導者和堆疊邏輯技術合作開發低功耗解決方案,因為它們對於支持低光分辨率應用變得越來越重要。

在我們差異化的 55 BCDLite 解決方案的推動下,我們的智能移動設備音頻業務今年也強勁增長。格芯的 BCDLite 解決方案通過提供更高的效率、更低的洩漏和改進的噪聲性能來解決特殊電源應用,例如顯示、無線充電和電池管理。

轉向家庭和工業物聯網,家庭和工業物聯網市場的收入同比增長約 83%,佔總收入的 19%。該終端市場的強勁同比增長是由近 40% 的晶圓量增長推動的,其餘的則是更好的平均售價和改進的組合。

在汽車市場,我們看到隨著行業加速 5G 並為先進的駕駛輔助系統做準備,設計活動有所增加。我們還看到,在包括電動汽車、車載信息娛樂、車身電子和 ADAS 在內的廣泛應用中贏得的新客戶數量也在增加。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to GlobalFoundries conference call to review its third quarter fiscal year 2022 financial results. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 GlobalFoundries 會議電話,回顧其 2022 會計年度第三季財務結果。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Sukhi Nagesh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給今天的主持人——投資人關係主管 Sukhi Nagesh。請開始。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to GlobalFoundries Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Dr. Thomas Caulfield, CEO; and Dave Reeder, CFO. A short while ago, we released GF's third quarter 2022 financial results, which is available on our website at investors.gf.com, along with today's accompanying slide presentation. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be made available on our Investor Relations web page.

    謝謝您,接線員。各位早安,歡迎參加 GlobalFoundries 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行長 Thomas Caulfield 博士,以及財務長 Dave Reeder。不久前,我們已發布 GF 2022 年第三季財務結果,可於 investors.gf.com 的網站上取得,並附有今天的簡報投影片。本通話將被錄音,並會在我們的投資人關係網頁提供重播。

  • During this call, we will present both IFRS and adjusted non-IFRS financial measures. The most directly comparable IFRS measures and reconciliations for adjusted non-IFRS measures are available in today's press release and the accompanying slides. I would remind you that these financial results are unaudited and subject to change.

    在本次通話中,我們將同時呈現 IFRS 與調整後的非 IFRS 財務衡量指標。與調整後非 IFRS 指標最直接可比的 IFRS 指標及其調節表,已載於今日新聞稿與隨附投影片中。提醒各位,這些財務結果尚未經審計,且可能變更。

  • Certain statements on today's call may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Such statements can be identified by terms such as believe, expect, intend, anticipate, and may. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today.

    今天通話中的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述。此類陳述可由 believe(相信)、expect(預期)、intend(打算)、anticipate(預估)以及 may(可能)等用語辨識。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異,我們亦不承擔更新今日所作任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the press release we issued today as well as risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings, including in the section under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on March 31, 2022, and on our 6-K filed with the SEC on August 19, 2022.

    如需了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素,請參閱我們今日發布的新聞稿,以及我們向 SEC 提交文件中所述的風險與不確定性,包括我們於 2022 年 3 月 31 日向 SEC 提交的 Form 20-F 年報中「Risk Factors(風險因素)」章節,以及我們於 2022 年 8 月 19 日向 SEC 提交的 6-K 文件。

  • We will begin today's call with Tom providing a summary update on the current business environment and technologies, following which Dave will provide details on our end market, third quarter results and also provide fourth quarter guidance. We will then open the call for questions. (Operator Instructions)

    今天的會議將先由 Tom 概述目前的商業環境與技術更新,接著 Dave 將說明我們的終端市場、第三季結果,並提供第四季指引。之後我們將開放提問。(接線員指示)

  • I'll now turn the call over to Tom for his prepared remarks.

    現在我將把電話交給 Tom,請他發表事先準備的談話。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Sukhi, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter earnings call. I'm pleased to report very clear results that were better than our August provided guidance as we continue to make solid progress on our strategic and financial priorities. Amidst an increasingly challenging economic environment, our team across our entire enterprise continues to execute.

    謝謝你,Sukhi,也歡迎各位參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我很高興報告,我們的結果非常明確,且優於我們 8 月提供的指引;我們在策略與財務優先事項上持續取得穩健進展。在日益嚴峻的經濟環境下,我們全公司團隊仍持續落實執行。

  • Let me begin by providing a brief update on the current business environment. Given the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, we continue to work closely with our customers to monitor end-market demand. Since the beginning of the quarter, some of our customers have requested to modestly adjust some of their 2023 shipments downward, particularly with respect to the first half of 2023.

    我先簡要更新目前的商業環境。鑑於總體經濟與地緣政治不確定性升高,我們持續與客戶密切合作以監測終端市場需求。自本季初以來,部分客戶已要求將其 2023 年部分出貨量小幅下調,尤其是 2023 年上半年。

  • Based on the current macroeconomic environment and our customer discussions, we are proactively taking actions to contain costs and to accelerate our previously planned productivity initiatives. Though it is difficult to take these actions during a year of record output. We believe that taking these actions now enables us to continue to outperform the market regardless of the economic environment. David will provide more details about these activities on his commentary.

    基於目前的總體經濟環境以及與客戶的討論,我們正主動採取行動以控制成本,並加速先前規劃的生產力提升計畫。儘管在創紀錄產出的一年中採取這些行動並不容易,我們相信現在採取行動能讓我們不論經濟環境如何,都能持續跑贏市場。David 將在他的說明中提供更多細節。

  • Long-term GF's growth drivers remain intact. Our aggregate LTAs have increased from the prior quarter as the number of customers under long-term agreements has grown from 36 to 38, with the total value of these long-term agreements now slightly above $27 billion. Additionally, the amount of committed prepays has increased 6% from a quarter ago, to approximately $3.8 billion.

    長期而言,GF 的成長驅動因素仍然完好。我們的長期協議(LTA)總額較上季增加,簽訂長期協議的客戶數由 36 家增至 38 家,這些長期協議的總價值目前略高於 270 億美元。此外,已承諾的預付款金額較一季前增加 6%,至約 38 億美元。

  • Also, and as expected, our long-term agreements are providing a strong framework for us and our customers to have balanced and constructive demand discussions. As an example, a recent LTA amendment resulted in a modest underutilization cash payment and ASP increase on existing demand and an additional year added to the contract's duration. A great example of the benefit of the long-term agreement structure.

    同時,如預期所示,我們的長期協議為我們與客戶進行平衡且具建設性的需求討論提供了強而有力的架構。舉例來說,近期一項 LTA 修訂帶來了小幅的產能利用不足現金補償、對既有需求的 ASP 提升,並將合約期限再延長一年。這是長期協議架構效益的絕佳例證。

  • Now let me give you an overview of third quarter. GlobalFoundries revenue grew 22% year-over-year, driven by increases in both wafer shipments, richer mix and ASPs. This revenue growth, coupled with strong operational execution, resulted in continued improvement to adjusted gross margin. We reported adjusted gross margin of 29.9% in the quarter, a 12 percentage point improvement from the year ago period.

    接下來我概述第三季表現。GlobalFoundries 營收年增 22%,主要受晶圓出貨量增加、產品組合更佳以及 ASP 提升所帶動。此營收成長加上強勁的營運執行,使調整後毛利率持續改善。本季我們的調整後毛利率為 29.9%,較去年同期提升 12 個百分點。

  • As a result, we delivered earnings per share of $0.67, which is better than the high end of our guidance range. Again, Dave will provide more color on our financials in a moment, but let me now provide a brief update on our recent technology achievements.

    因此,我們每股盈餘達到 0.67 美元,優於我們指引區間的上緣。稍後 Dave 會就財務表現提供更多說明;現在我先簡要更新我們近期的技術成果。

  • In the third quarter, we completed 5 technology qualifications. Notably, this included a 12-nanometer LP customer-specific technology covered under a 5-year long-term agreement. Also among the qualifications is the customer's proprietary automotive 40-nanometer embedded nonvolatile memory product for one of the largest automotive MCU suppliers in the industry. This qualification now allows us to ship this product from both our Dresden and Singapore facilities, establishing a high-volume secure supply chain for the automotive industry.

    在第三季,我們完成了 5 項技術認證。值得注意的是,其中包括一項 12 奈米 LP 客戶專屬技術,並涵蓋在一份 5 年期長期協議之下。其他認證還包括該客戶的專有車用 40 奈米嵌入式非揮發性記憶體產品,供應給業界最大的車用 MCU 供應商之一。此項認證使我們得以在德勒斯登與新加坡兩座廠區出貨該產品,為車用產業建立高產量且安全的供應鏈。

  • Within the quarter, we also tapped out 5 new customer products on our silicon photonics platform. This included a photo IC device, fully monolithic co-packaged optics for GPU-to-GPU 2 terabit optical interconnect. Finally, we have successfully produced a high-performance RF GaN device with our through-silicon via technology. We now have demonstrated performance that exceeds silicon HBT technologies, and as I previously mentioned, integrates a novel through-silicon via solution to optimize power amplifier output and efficiency.

    在本季內,我們也在矽光子平台上完成 5 款新客戶產品的流片(tape-out)。其中包括一款光電 IC 裝置、用於 GPU 對 GPU 2 太比特光學互連的全單晶片(fully monolithic)共封裝光學(co-packaged optics)。最後,我們已成功利用穿矽通孔(through-silicon via)技術製造出高效能 RF GaN 裝置。我們目前已展示出超越矽 HBT 技術的效能,並如我先前所提到,整合了創新的穿矽通孔解決方案,以最佳化功率放大器輸出與效率。

  • In addition, we have sampled GaN power devices to early engagement customers. Both programs are being executed in our Burlington, Vermont facility, where we recently received a $30 million grant from the U.S. government as part of the commercialization funding for this GaN RF technology offering.

    此外,我們已向早期合作客戶提供 GaN 功率元件樣品。兩項計畫皆在我們位於佛蒙特州伯靈頓的廠區執行;我們近期亦獲得美國政府 3,000 萬美元補助,作為此 GaN RF 技術產品商業化資金的一部分。

  • To summarize, I'm pleased to report another quarter of solid execution as we delivered to all our customers and to all our stakeholders. We are on track to have a strong year of growth in 2022. And given the strength of our product portfolio, the breadth of the markets we serve and the single-source nature of our business, we are well positioned to navigate the current challenging macroeconomic environment.

    總結來說,我很高興再度報告我們在本季展現穩健的執行力,並對所有客戶與所有利害關係人完成交付。我們正朝著 2022 年強勁成長的一年邁進。鑑於我們產品組合的實力、所服務市場的廣度,以及我們業務的單一來源(single-source)特性,我們具備良好條件以因應目前充滿挑戰的總體經濟環境。

  • With that, over to you, Dave.

    接下來交給你,Dave。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Thank you, Tom, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. For the remainder of the call, including guidance, I will reference adjusted metrics, which exclude stock-based compensation.

    謝謝你,Tom,也歡迎各位參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。在接下來的通話內容(包括指引)中,我將引用調整後指標,其排除以股份為基礎的薪酬。

  • Our third quarter results exceeded the high end of the financial range we provided in our last quarterly update. Third quarter revenue was approximately $2.074 billion, an increase of 22% year-over-year. We shipped approximately 637,300-millimeter equivalent wafers in the quarter, a 5% increase from the year prior period.

    我們第三季結果超出上次季度更新所提供財務區間的上緣。第三季營收約為 20.74 億美元,年增 22%。本季我們出貨約 637,300 片 300 毫米等效晶圓,較去年同期增加 5%。

  • Average selling price, ASP, per wafer increased approximately 14% year-over-year, driven by ramping long-term customer agreements with better pricing as well as continued improvement in product mix. Wafer revenue from our end markets accounted for approximately 90% of total revenue. Non-wafer revenue, which includes revenue from reticles, nonrecurring engineering, expedite fees and other items accounted for approximately 10% of total revenue for the quarter, consistent with our expectations.

    每片晶圓平均售價(ASP)年增約 14%,主要受長期客戶協議放量、帶來較佳定價,以及產品組合持續改善所帶動。我們終端市場的晶圓營收約占總營收的 90%。非晶圓營收(包括光罩、一次性工程費用、加急費及其他項目)約占本季總營收的 10%,符合我們的預期。

  • Let me now provide an update on our revenue by end markets. Smart mobile devices represented approximately 46% of third quarter revenue, growing approximately 12% year-over-year. Growth was driven by higher ASPs and better mix as we continue to increase our silicon content in the premium tier handsets. In our RF front-end modules, despite the well-known and ongoing inventory correction in handsets, we are executing well and expect mid-teens full year growth in the premium segment, offset by declines in the low and mid-range segments.

    接下來我更新按終端市場劃分的營收。智慧行動裝置約占第三季營收的 46%,年增約 12%。成長主要由 ASP 提升與更佳產品組合所帶動,因我們持續在高階手機中提高矽含量。在我們的 RF 前端模組方面,儘管手機端眾所周知且仍在持續的庫存修正,我們執行表現良好,並預期高階區隔全年可達中十位數(mid-teens)成長,但將被低階與中階區隔的下滑所抵銷。

  • Our long-term customer agreements are helping us navigate the challenging demand environment by reducing volatility. We continue to maintain market share in premium tier handsets and are currently developing next-generation technologies that will improve performance through better switch, LNA and digital integration.

    我們的長期客戶協議正協助我們在充滿挑戰的需求環境中降低波動、穩健前行。我們持續在高階手機市場維持市占率,並正開發下一代技術,透過更佳的開關、LNA 與數位整合來提升效能。

  • Furthermore, in the 5G sub-6-gigahertz RF transceiver market, which is a new market for GF, we expect to see robust growth in 2022, driven by the adoption of our products by a leading handset chip customer. Another new market is WiFi RF SoC where growth is driven by our solutions going into premier handset models in support of WiFi 6, 6E and WiFi Mesh networks.

    此外,在 5G sub-6GHz RF 收發器市場(這是 GF 的新市場)方面,我們預期在 2022 年將在主要手機晶片客戶採用我們產品的帶動下,看到強勁成長。另一個新市場是 WiFi RF SoC,其成長動能來自我們的解決方案導入旗艦手機機種,以支援 WiFi 6、6E 與 WiFi Mesh 網路。

  • Our image sensor processor business also grew strongly in the quarter as we continue to partner with industry leaders and stacked logic technologies for low-power solutions as they become increasingly important to support low-light resolution applications.

    我們的影像感測器處理器業務在本季也強勁成長;我們持續與產業領導者合作,並採用堆疊式邏輯技術提供低功耗解決方案,隨著其對支援低光源解析度應用愈發重要。

  • Our smart mobile device audio business is also growing strongly this year, driven by our differentiated 55 BCDLite solutions. GF's BCDLite solutions address specialty power applications such as display, wireless charging and battery management by providing higher efficiency, lower leakage and improve noise performance.

    我們的智慧行動裝置音訊業務今年同樣強勁成長,主要由我們差異化的 55 BCDLite 解決方案所帶動。GF 的 BCDLite 解決方案透過提供更高效率、更低漏電並改善雜訊表現,來滿足顯示、無線充電與電池管理等特殊電源應用。

  • Moving on to home and industrial IoT. Revenue for the home and industrial IoT market grew approximately 83% year-over-year, representing 19% of total revenue. Strong year-over-year growth in this end market was driven by wafer volume growth of almost 40%, with the remainder the result of better ASPs and improved mix.

    接著談家用與工業 IoT。家用與工業 IoT 市場營收年增約 83%,占總營收 19%。此終端市場的強勁年增主要由近 40% 的晶圓出貨量成長所驅動,其餘則來自更佳的 ASP 與產品組合改善。

  • Within this end market, we saw continued growth in smart card solutions and wireless connectivity, driven by our differentiated 28-nanometer and 22 FDX technologies. We also saw broad-based growth in power management in the quarter. We remain on track for home and industrial IoT to be the fastest-growing end market for GF in 2022.

    在此終端市場中,我們在智慧卡解決方案與無線連線方面持續成長,主要由我們差異化的 28 奈米與 22 FDX 技術所帶動。我們也在本季看到電源管理的全面性成長。我們仍按計畫推進,預期家用與工業 IoT 將成為 GF 在 2022 年成長最快的終端市場。

  • Touching next on automotive. Revenue in this market was approximately 5% of our total third quarter revenue. The automotive end market has been one of the brighter spots in the market. We expect our growth to continue as we bring to market new MCUs and safety applications, radar for sensing and power management for electrification. Based on our current design wins, we anticipate continued growth in our automotive business in 2023, and we expect the business to exit 2023 at a $1 billion annualized run rate.

    接著談汽車。此市場營收約占我們第三季總營收的 5%。汽車終端市場一直是市場中較亮眼的領域之一。隨著我們推出新的 MCU 與安全應用、用於感測的雷達,以及用於電動化的電源管理,我們預期成長將持續。基於我們目前的設計導入(design wins),我們預期 2023 年汽車業務將持續成長,並預期在 2023 年底以年化 10 億美元的 run rate 收官。

  • Next, our communications infrastructure and data center end market comprised approximately 18% of third quarter revenue and grew approximately 29% year-over-year. Growth was evenly split between higher shipments and better ASPs and mix. Our strongest year-over-year growth continues to be in the data center submarket closely followed by wired infrastructure and storage.

    接下來,我們的通訊基礎設施與資料中心終端市場約占第三季營收的 18%,年增約 29%。成長動能在更高出貨量與更佳 ASP 及產品組合之間大致各半。我們最強勁的年增仍在資料中心子市場,其次緊接著是有線基礎設施與儲存。

  • Our customers are continuing to grow market share in this segment, and GF is contributing by providing critical connectivity and [IOD] components. Finally, and as expected, our compute end market declined year-over-year and comprised approximately 2% of third quarter revenue. We expect this end market to be less than 5% of our total 2022 revenue.

    我們的客戶在此領域持續擴大市占率,而 GF 透過提供關鍵連線與 [IOD] 元件來貢獻。最後,如預期所示,我們的運算(compute)終端市場年減,約占第三季營收的 2%。我們預期該終端市場在 2022 年的總營收占比將低於 5%。

  • Moving next to gross profit. For the third quarter, we delivered adjusted gross profit of $621 million, which translates into approximately 29.9% adjusted gross margin. The 12 percentage point year-over-year improvement was driven by better fixed cost absorption, higher ASPs and improved mix. Approximately 80% of this improvement was attributable to ASP and mix, with the remaining 20% attributable to volume and fixed-cost absorption.

    接著談毛利。第三季我們達成調整後毛利 6.21 億美元,約當 29.9% 的調整後毛利率。年增 12 個百分點主要由更佳的固定成本吸收、更高的 ASP 與產品組合改善所帶動。其中約 80% 的改善歸因於 ASP 與組合,其餘 20% 歸因於出貨量與固定成本吸收。

  • Operating expenses for the third quarter were slightly better than expected and represented approximately 11% of total revenue. R&D for the quarter was up sequentially at approximately $118 million, while SG&A came in at $114 million. Total operating expenses were $232 million excluding $21 million of stock-based compensation.

    第三季營業費用略優於預期,約占總營收 11%。本季研發費用較前一季增加至約 1.18 億美元,而 SG&A 為 1.14 億美元。扣除 2,100 萬美元的股票基礎薪酬後,營業費用合計為 2.32 億美元。

  • GF delivered operating profit of $389 million for the quarter, which translates into an approximately 19% adjusted operating margin, roughly 14 percentage points better than the year ago period and $8 million higher than the high end of our guidance range.

    GF 本季營業利益為 3.89 億美元,約當 19% 的調整後營業利益率,較去年同期約高 14 個百分點,且較我們指引區間上緣高出 800 萬美元。

  • Third quarter net interest expense was approximately $11 million, and we incurred a taxed expense of approximately $19 million in the quarter. We delivered third quarter adjusted net income of approximately $368 million, an increase of approximately $334 million from the year ago period.

    第三季淨利息費用約 1,100 萬美元,本季稅費約 1,900 萬美元。我們第三季調整後淨利約 3.68 億美元,較去年同期增加約 3.34 億美元。

  • As a result, we reported adjusted diluted earnings of $0.67 per share for the third quarter. We delivered record third quarter EBITDA of approximately $793 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew $288 million year-on-year on $374 million of incremental revenue growth, representing approximately 77% fall-through.

    因此,我們第三季調整後稀釋每股盈餘為 0.67 美元。我們第三季 EBITDA 約 7.93 億美元,創下紀錄。調整後 EBITDA 在新增營收 3.74 億美元的帶動下年增 2.88 億美元,約當 77% 的 fall-through。

  • Let me now provide some key balance sheet and cash flow metrics. Cash flow from operations for the third quarter was $679 million. Gross CapEx for the quarter was $613 million or roughly 30% of revenue. At the end of the third quarter, our combined total of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities stood at approximately $3.5 billion, an increase of roughly $200 million from the previous quarter.

    接著提供幾項資產負債表與現金流的關鍵指標。第三季營運活動現金流為 6.79 億美元。本季資本支出(CapEx)總額為 6.13 億美元,約占營收 30%。截至第三季末,我們的現金、約當現金與有價證券合計約 35 億美元,較前一季增加約 2 億美元。

  • Next, let me provide you with our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect total GF revenue to be between $2.05 billion and $2.1 billion. Of this, we expect non-wafer revenue to be approximately 11% to 12% of total revenue. We expect adjusted gross profit to be between $595 million and $630 million. Included in this guidance is a sequential reduction in capacity utilization, particularly with respect to our 200-millimeter fabs.

    接下來提供第四季展望。我們預期 GF 總營收介於 20.5 億至 21 億美元。其中,我們預期非晶圓營收約占總營收 11% 至 12%。我們預期調整後毛利介於 5.95 億至 6.30 億美元。本指引包含產能利用率的季減,特別是我們的 200 毫米晶圓廠。

  • The expected reduction in the fourth quarter wafer starts, which support first quarter revenue decreased our gross margin guidance range by approximately $50 million. We expect adjusted operating profit to be between $365 million and $420 million. Excluding share-based compensation for the fourth quarter, we expect total OpEx to be between $210 million and $230 million.

    第四季預期的晶圓開工(wafer starts)下降(其支撐第一季營收)使我們的毛利率指引區間約下調 5,000 萬美元。我們預期調整後營業利益介於 3.65 億至 4.20 億美元。扣除第四季的股份基礎薪酬後,我們預期總營業費用(OpEx)介於 2.10 億至 2.30 億美元。

  • At the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect share-based compensation to be approximately $36 million, of which $13 million is related to cost of goods sold and approximately $23 million is related to OpEx. We expect net interest and other expense for the quarter to be approximately $2 million and tax expense to be roughly $22 million.

    以第四季指引中位數計算,我們預期股份基礎薪酬約 3,600 萬美元,其中 1,300 萬美元與銷貨成本相關,約 2,300 萬美元與 OpEx 相關。我們預期本季淨利息及其他費用約 200 萬美元,稅費約 2,200 萬美元。

  • We are also on track to close the sale of the East Fishkill facility at the end of the year. As a result, we expect to record a gain on sale in the fourth quarter that will be in the range of $350 million to $400 million. Excluding this onetime gain on sale, we expect adjusted net income to be between $337 million and $400 million.

    我們也按計畫在年底完成 East Fishkill 廠房的出售。因此,我們預期在第四季認列出售利益,金額約介於 3.50 億至 4.00 億美元。排除這筆一次性出售利益後,我們預期調整後淨利介於 3.37 億至 4.00 億美元。

  • On a fully diluted share count of 554 million, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be between $0.61 and $0.72. Including the onetime gain on sale, we expect adjusted EPS to be between $1.24 and $1.44. For the fourth quarter, we expect D&A to be about $405 million, of which 90% is related to the cost of goods sold. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $770 million and $840 million.

    以完全稀釋後股數 5.54 億股計算,我們預期第四季調整後每股盈餘介於 0.61 至 0.72 美元。若包含一次性出售利益,我們預期調整後 EPS 介於 1.24 至 1.44 美元。第四季我們預期折舊與攤銷(D&A)約 4.05 億美元,其中 90% 與銷貨成本相關。我們預期調整後 EBITDA 介於 7.70 億至 8.40 億美元。

  • For the full year 2022, we now expect total gross CapEx to be between $3 billion and $3.3 billion, impacted primarily by the well-known delays in capital equipment. Despite the delay, we are on track to meet all of our material customer commitments for the year. As we look forward, we will be working closely with our customers and partnership, and we'll provide an update on our 2023 CapEx at the end of the year.

    就 2022 全年而言,我們目前預期資本支出(CapEx)總額介於 30 億至 33 億美元,主要受到眾所周知的資本設備交期延遲影響。儘管有所延遲,我們仍按計畫履行今年所有重要的客戶承諾。展望未來,我們將與客戶及合作夥伴密切合作,並將在年底提供 2023 年 CapEx 的更新。

  • While we have tightly managed expenses over the past year, we are nevertheless paying close attention to the uncertain macroeconomic conditions and to our customers' recent commentary regarding 2023 demand. We are working closely with our customers to monitor demand. And as Tom mentioned, we are proactively containing cost and accelerating previously planned productivity initiatives.

    雖然過去一年我們嚴格控管費用,但我們仍密切關注不確定的總體經濟情勢,以及客戶近期對 2023 年需求的評論。我們正與客戶緊密合作以監測需求。正如 Tom 所提到的,我們正主動抑制成本,並加速先前規劃的生產力提升計畫。

  • Though we are still sizing these initiatives, we expect them to deliver annualized savings of approximately $200 million, the majority of which will be in OpEx. 2Neither these savings nor any related onetime charges are incorporated in today's guidance. We will provide you updates on these initiatives as appropriate.

    儘管我們仍在評估這些計畫的規模,我們預期其可帶來年化約 2 億美元的節省,其中大部分將體現在 OpEx。2這些節省以及任何相關的一次性費用均未納入今日的指引。我們將在適當時機就這些計畫提供更新。

  • To summarize the quarter, strong operational execution enabled us to deliver third quarter results that were significantly better than the high end of our guidance range. We are continuing to execute the strategic plan we outlined to our stakeholders at IPO, and we are proactively taking action to position the company to outperform irrespective of macroeconomic conditions.

    總結本季而言,強勁的營運執行力使我們交出第三季業績,顯著優於我們指引區間的上緣。我們持續推進在 IPO 時向利害關係人所闡述的策略計畫,並主動採取行動,使公司無論宏觀經濟環境如何都能具備超越表現的定位。

  • With that, let's open the call for Q&A. Operator?

    接下來,我們開放電話會議進入問答環節。接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示)我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Great job on the quarterly execution and strong profitability. The industry's softness will be, I think, a good assessment, right, of the team's technology and portfolio differentiation. So if I look at your total revenue pipeline, LTAs, renegotiated LTAs, standard book and ship and even current negotiations on new business, I know that you guys were previously anticipating overall pricing to be up next year. But obviously, given the challenging and changing demand dynamics, maybe you guys can just articulate what the overall pricing profile now looks like for 2023? And then I have a follow-up.

    本季執行表現出色且獲利能力強勁,做得很好。我認為產業景氣轉弱,將會是對團隊技術與產品組合差異化的一個很好的檢驗。若我看你們的總營收管線、LTA、重新協商的 LTA、標準 book-and-ship,甚至目前針對新業務的洽談,我知道你們先前預期明年整體定價會上升。但顯然在需求動態充滿挑戰且持續變化的情況下,能否請你們說明一下,現在對 2023 年整體定價輪廓的看法是什麼?我之後還有一個追問。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Harlan, I'll start on that one and then maybe, Tom, you can add some color. We believe that we're still in a relatively constructive pricing environment, particularly with regards to our LTAs. Average selling price per wafer, as you've seen, has increased again this quarter, that's 6 consecutive quarters of sequential increase, really consistent with our previous commentary. Based upon what we see, we continue to expect modest pricing increases into 2023. Tom, anything you'd add?

    Harlan,我先回答這題,然後也許 Tom 可以再補充一些細節。我們認為目前仍處於相對有利的定價環境,特別是在我們的 LTA 方面。如你所見,每片晶圓的平均售價本季再度上升,這已是連續第 6 個季度季比上升,與我們先前的評論一致。根據我們所觀察到的情況,我們仍預期 2023 年價格將溫和上調。Tom,你有要補充的嗎?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll try to add a little bit more strategically. When we look at the assessment, I think to a company, we're all aligned that we're still going to double in the next -- double this industry by the end of the decade. When we look at the market opportunity in our SAM, we see that market opportunity growing, but more importantly, where differentiation matters where we can continue to drive our single-source business, create differentiation to create value for our customers and capture for ourselves. We see that market in excess of $20 billion of really specialty type of applications that we can go out and win.

    有的。我嘗試從策略面再多補充一些。當我們做評估時,我想公司上下都一致認為,到本十年末我們仍將使規模倍增——而且會以高於整體產業倍增的速度成長。當我們看我們 SAM 的市場機會時,我們看到市場機會在成長,但更重要的是,在差異化真正重要之處,我們能持續推動單一來源(single-source)業務,透過差異化為客戶創造價值,並為自己取得價值。我們看到這個市場在超過 200 億美元以上,屬於我們可以去爭取並贏得的、真正偏專業型(specialty)的應用。

  • So as long as we continue to focus on our execution of our R&D road map, understanding the end markets we play in, differentiating to support those end markets. I don't think this is the end of that ability for us to continue to capture value for our business as we work through this macro environment.

    因此,只要我們持續專注於研發路線圖的執行,理解我們所參與的終端市場,並以差異化來支援這些終端市場,我不認為在我們度過這段宏觀環境期間,我們持續為公司攫取價值的能力就會到此為止。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • And then given the lower demand profile of your customers in the industry, it's clear, obviously, as you said as well, next year will be challenging. I assume it's too early for the team to articulate a full year 2023 view on wafer shipment to revenue. So maybe if you could just help us think about a framework for the gross margins next year, right, with utilization is most likely coming down but with many positive offsets like increasing wafer pricing, as you just mentioned, you've got the East Fishkill transition and continued depreciation roll off. So give us the framework for how to think about gross margins.

    另外,考量到你們客戶在產業中的需求輪廓較低,很明顯——如你們也提到的——明年將會充滿挑戰。我猜現在對團隊而言,要完整說明 2023 全年晶圓出貨到營收的展望仍為時過早。所以也許你們可以協助我們建立一個思考明年毛利率的框架:利用率很可能會下滑,但也有許多正向抵銷因素,例如你剛提到的晶圓價格上升、East Fishkill 的轉換,以及持續的折舊下降。請給我們一個思考毛利率的框架。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Maybe -- as you know, Harlan, we guide one quarter at a time, but maybe I could broaden out the way we think about what we need to focus on as we head into perhaps times that are perhaps more challenging. When times are more challenging, you tend to focus on the variables that you can control. And when we sit down as a management team, and we think about those variables, the first one is the one that Tom mentioned, differentiation.

    好的。也許——如你所知,Harlan,我們一次只提供一季的指引,但我可以把我們在面對可能更具挑戰的時期時,認為需要聚焦的方向講得更廣一些。當環境更具挑戰時,你通常會把重點放在你能控制的變數上。當我們管理團隊坐下來思考這些變數時,第一個就是 Tom 提到的:差異化。

  • So we've realigned the company to be more focused with respect to product management, development of differentiated technology. We believe we're making progress towards being more differentiated. We had another quarter, about 90% of our design wins were single sourced. We're about 90% for the year, year-to-date, on design wins being single source. So we feel like we're making good progress there.

    因此,我們已重新調整公司,使其在產品管理與差異化技術開發方面更聚焦。我們相信我們在提升差異化方面正在取得進展。本季我們再度看到,約 90% 的 design wins 為單一來源。以今年截至目前(year-to-date)來看,design wins 為單一來源的比例也約 90%。所以我們覺得在這方面進展良好。

  • With respect to pricing, as Tom mentioned, we have seen pricing increase this year sequentially. We think it's going to modestly increase next year. We think that's directly correlated to our ability to differentiate cost containments. You heard on the prepared commentary that we're aggressively controlling discretionary spending, travel, entertainment, professional services. We're accelerating some of our previously planned productivity initiatives.

    在定價方面,如 Tom 所提到的,我們今年看到價格逐季上升。我們認為明年將溫和上升。我們認為這與我們的差異化能力直接相關。至於成本控管,你在事先準備的評論中也聽到,我們正積極控管可自由裁量支出,包括差旅、招待、專業服務費用。我們也在加速推進先前規劃的一些生產力提升計畫。

  • And then finally, CapEx, we can control the rate and pace of our growth. We're moderating our CapEx to better match our customers' demand forecast, while we're also considering our free cash profile. So ultimately, we believe that, that helps us control the utilization, we believe that's directly correlated to gross margin. And so we're focusing on the things that we can control. We feel like we had a pretty good third quarter, and we feel still quite optimistic for the future.

    最後是資本支出(CapEx),我們可以控制成長的速度與節奏。我們正在調整資本支出,使其更貼近客戶的需求預測,同時也會考量我們的自由現金流輪廓。因此,我們相信這有助於我們控制產能利用率,而我們認為利用率與毛利率直接相關。所以我們會專注在我們能控制的事情上。我們覺得第三季表現相當不錯,對未來也仍然相當樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Tom or Dave, one for you on linearity of demand. Obviously, we've seen what a lot of your fabless customers had to say, third quarters were generally okay, but fourth quarter guides were pretty darn weak. I know you talked about utilization coming down, but any additional color on the linearity of demand that you've seen during the third quarter and thus far in the fourth quarter? .

    Tom 或 Dave,想請教你們一題關於需求線性(linearity)。顯然我們看到許多你們的無晶圓廠(fabless)客戶所說的情況:第三季整體還可以,但第四季指引相當疲弱。我知道你們談到利用率會下降,但能否就你們在第三季以及目前第四季為止所看到的需求線性,再提供一些額外說明?。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. I think with respect to linearity, Ross, you see that's -- in our guide, we've guided from $2.05 billion to about $2.1 billion. At the midpoint, that would be relatively flat on a quarter-to-quarter basis. I think if you were to rewind a couple of quarters, we would have expected a little bit more growth sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. So I think you're seeing the impact of some of those customers that have reduced their future demand.

    好的。關於線性,Ross,你可以從我們的指引看出來——我們指引區間為 20.5 億美元到約 21 億美元。以中位數來看,季對季大致持平。我想如果你回到前幾季,我們原本會預期第三季到第四季會有更多的季比成長。所以我認為你看到的是部分客戶下修未來需求所帶來的影響。

  • With respect to linearity into 2023, as you know, we guide one quarter at a time. But as you've heard from many customers, as we're hearing from our customers, we think the first half of 2023 is probably the trough based on what we're hearing. It's probably more likely than not the first quarter, but we continue to refine and assess that demand based upon our collaboration with customers.

    至於延伸到 2023 年的線性,如你所知,我們一次只提供一季的指引。但正如你從許多客戶那裡聽到的、以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的,我們認為 2023 年上半年大概會是谷底(trough)。依我們目前聽到的情況,較可能是第一季,但我們會持續根據與客戶的合作來精煉並評估需求。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • And I'll just add 2 points to that. One is our underutilization is predominantly, and I mean predominantly our 200-millimeter, not our 300-millimeter facilities. And even with all of that, we still expect 2023 to be a modest up year for us.

    我再補充兩點。第一,我們的產能未充分利用主要——而且我指的是主要——發生在 200 毫米,而不是 300 毫米的廠區。第二,即便如此,我們仍預期 2023 年對我們而言會是溫和成長的一年。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And Tom, just a clarification there. Do you mean that on the revenue side or the wafer output side or both?

    Tom,我想釐清一下。你指的是營收端,還是晶圓產出端,或兩者都是?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm talking revenue for [2023.]

    我指的是 [2023 年] 的營收。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And then I guess for my follow-up, the big picture question people obviously have is with the direction macro is going, and I appreciate the color of the bottoming in the first half of the year. But I want to dig deeper into the LTAs. It's good to see that they're expanding in both their magnitude and the number of customers that you have, but people still wonder about the value of those LTAs.

    那我接著追問一題。大家在大方向上顯然都在想:在宏觀走向如此的情況下,我也感謝你提到上半年觸底的看法,但我想更深入探討 LTA。很高興看到 LTA 的規模與客戶數都在擴大,但大家仍會質疑這些 LTA 的價值。

  • So talk a little bit about the framework, what it's allowing you to do? Is the value that you're holding customers to the exact amount they at one point agreed to? Or is it more so that it allows a framework for negotiations on expanding longer term? Just trying to figure out the value of the LTAs and what gives you comfort in that view for 2023 given the macro trends right now?

    所以請談談其框架,以及它讓你們能做什麼?其價值在於你們要求客戶遵守他們曾同意的確切數量嗎?還是說,它更像是一個用於協商、以擴展更長期合作的框架?我想弄清楚 LTA 的價值,以及在目前的宏觀趨勢下,為何你們對 2023 年仍能對此觀點感到安心?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Really, I'd kind of direct it back to -- the question back to Tom's prepared commentary. And really, I'll use as an example, probably the most recent amendment that we've made to an LTA. So we had a customer that reached out to us about revising downward their demand a little bit in the fourth quarter. And then subsequently in 2023, most of it kind of centered up on the first half.

    是的。我會把這個問題導回到——Tom 事先準備的評論。並且我用一個例子來說明,可能是我們最近一次對某份 LTA 所做的修訂。我們有一位客戶主動聯繫我們,希望在第四季把需求稍微往下調。接著在 2023 年,調整多半集中在上半年。

  • When we sat down to talk to that customer, and as we said previously, the LTA provided a framework of tools such that we can engage with each other in a pretty constructive way, and as Tom mentioned in his commentary, the ultimate outcome of that collaboration was that we had a capacity underutilization fee.

    當我們坐下來與該客戶討論時,正如我們先前所說,LTA 提供了一套工具框架,使我們能以相當具建設性的方式彼此互動;而如 Tom 在評論中提到的,這次合作的最終結果是,我們設置了一項產能未充分利用費(capacity underutilization fee)。

  • We also had increased pricing for the remainder of the demand in 2023, and then we had the appending of demand and the extension of the agreement by an incremental year that extended that contract. I believe it was out into 2026, that extra year. And so that would be an example of the LTA framework, enabling both parties to sit down in a constructive way to handle not only short-term perturbations, but also to continue to handle what we see as long-term growth in the industry, handled that in a very constructive manner.

    我們在 2023 年其餘需求上也提高了定價,接著又有需求的追加,以及將協議再延長一年、把該合約往後延展。我相信那是延到 2026 年,多出來的那一年。因此,這就是 LTA 架構的一個例子,使雙方能以建設性的方式坐下來,不僅處理短期的波動,也能持續因應我們所看到的產業長期成長,而且是以非常建設性的方式來處理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的 Joseph Moore。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could talk about the utilization shift that you talked about. And did I hear you right, there's a $50 million impact in Q4. I guess, wouldn't the impact be closer matched to the revenue impact? And I guess, is there something specific that's sort of driving you to take that action?

    我想請你談談你提到的產能利用率轉變。以及我是否聽對了,第四季有 5,000 萬美元的影響。我在想,這個影響不應該更接近與營收影響相匹配嗎?另外,是不是有什麼特定因素在驅動你們採取這個行動?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Joe. Specifically, what we were trying to articulate with the prepared commentary was the gross margin range would have been $50 million higher if we had continued to run at kind of full utilization like we were running at in prior quarters.

    當然可以,Joe。具體來說,我們在事先準備的說明中想表達的是:如果我們像前幾季那樣維持接近滿載的利用率運行,毛利率區間本來可以再高出 5,000 萬美元。

  • The reason you start to see an impact in the fourth quarter is because the wafers that are started in the fourth quarter are essentially a lot of the wafer outs that are in the first quarter, but you start to accrue those underutilization charges in the fourth quarter, they start to impact that particular period. And so that's why we commented that we would have had a range that was essentially $50 million higher on the gross margin line if that underutilization did not occur or was not occurring.

    你之所以會在第四季開始看到影響,是因為第四季投片(started)的晶圓,基本上有很大一部分會在第一季出片(wafer outs);但在第四季你就開始提列這些產能利用不足的費用,它們會開始影響該期間。因此我們才會評論說,如果沒有發生、或沒有正在發生這種利用不足,那麼在毛利這一行,我們的區間本來大致可以高出 5,000 萬美元。

  • Did you have a follow-up, Joe? .

    Joe,你有追問嗎?.

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Yes. I think in terms of bigger picture, can you talk about conversations that you're having with people that aren't under LTA, to the extent that you might have some capacity free up here. I would assume that there's a lot of people with automotive and industrial type businesses that are really interesting to you that sort of would want to work with you. Is there opportunity around that? And do you see opportunity to potentially sort of reposition some of the smartphone stuff over towards automotive, industrial? .

    有。我想從更宏觀的角度來看,能否談談你們與那些沒有簽 LTA 的客戶之間的對話?如果你們這邊釋出一些產能,我猜有很多做汽車與工業類業務的客戶會對你們很感興趣、也會想跟你們合作。這方面有機會嗎?另外,你們是否看到機會把部分智慧型手機相關的產能/業務重新配置到汽車、工業?.

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • That's absolutely the case. There's still strong strength in auto, you're hearing that across the board. And we're opportunistic. Many of our technologies that we support, smart mobile devices, 40-nanometer with embedded memory, our BCD technologies, using it as an opportunity to remix towards auto.

    確實如此。汽車端仍然非常強勁,你也聽到各家都這麼說。而我們也會把握機會。我們支援的許多技術——智慧行動裝置、具嵌入式記憶體的 40 奈米、我們的 BCD 技術——都可藉此機會重新混配(remix)到汽車領域。

  • The key here is to make sure that we sell every wafer we can, we sell where we're the most differentiated as we honor our LTAs. And so we're constantly looking to optimize our business to match the demand across the different end markets and leveraging the ability to not only do a 1-for-1 replacement, a 40-nanometer part with another, what we call fung our capacity. If we have more demand on 55-nanometer how can we fung our 40-nanometer corridor to make more 55. So that's a constant balancing act we do with our team and being very proactive to the markets we can serve.

    關鍵在於確保我們能賣出每一片能賣的晶圓,在遵守我們的 LTA 的同時,把產品賣到我們差異化最強的地方。因此我們持續在優化業務,以匹配不同終端市場的需求,並運用我們不僅能做 1 對 1 的替換——例如一個 40 奈米的產品換成另一個——我們也會把產能做我們所謂的 fung(可互換化)。如果 55 奈米的需求更多,我們要如何把 40 奈米的產能走廊(corridor)做 fung,來生產更多 55。這就是我們團隊持續在做的平衡動作,並且對我們能服務的市場保持非常主動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • In the scenario of sales being, say, modestly up next year, how should we think about gross margins? Can they continue to increase? And what will be the benefit that you might see from the East Fishkill fab exit? .

    在明年銷售例如小幅成長的情境下,我們應該如何看待毛利率?它們能否持續提升?另外,退出 East Fishkill 晶圓廠會帶來哪些效益?.

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. So -- so as we mentioned, Vivek, we do believe that pricing will be modestly up next year. We believe that we have the opportunity based upon what we currently see to have revenue growth that's modest next year. I'm not going to provide guidance on gross margin. But clearly, what you're seeing from us is you're seeing us proactively position the company such that we can perform irrespective of the market environment.

    是的——正如我們提到的,Vivek,我們確實認為明年的定價會小幅上升。我們也相信,基於目前所見,我們有機會在明年實現小幅的營收成長。我不會提供毛利率指引。但很明顯,你們看到的是我們正主動地為公司定位,使我們能不受市場環境影響而維持表現。

  • So we are taking actions now to contain costs, both on the OpEx side as well as on the COGS side. And we believe that, that positions us regardless of the market that we enter into. Did you have a follow-up, Vivek?

    因此我們現在就採取行動來控制成本,包含營業費用(OpEx)端以及銷貨成本(COGS)端。我們相信,這能讓我們不論進入何種市場環境都能站穩。Vivek,你有追問嗎?

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • So Tom, over the last few weeks, we have seen a lot more details about U.S. restrictions on China. And I was hoping you could give us a flavor of if your customer discussions have changed in any way? Looking out over the next several years, do you see more customers wanting to engage with GlobalFoundries, given your unique footprint?

    Tom,過去幾週我們看到更多關於美國對中國限制的細節。我想請你分享一下,你們與客戶的討論是否有任何改變?展望未來幾年,鑑於你們獨特的佈局(footprint),你是否看到更多客戶想與 GlobalFoundries 合作?

  • And then the second part of that is as you look at, especially the automotive market, do you see more customers wanting to engage with you with prepayment? I think you mentioned that you expect your automotive revenue to be $1 billion annualized next year. How much of that is from existing customers, how much of that is from newer customers?

    第二個部分是,特別看汽車市場,你是否看到更多客戶希望以預付款的方式與你們合作?我想你提到你們預期明年汽車營收年化可達 10 億美元。這當中有多少來自既有客戶,有多少來自新客戶?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • So yes, let me start with the first part about the geopolitical dynamics and the restrictions out of China. If you recall, GF's exposure to what we call direct business in China is under 10%. And so that end of our business is -- it remains intact. But more so than not, customers are starting to think longer term, how do they get a better balance in their sourcing.

    好的,我先從第一部分談地緣政治動態以及來自中國的限制。如果你還記得,GF 在我們所稱的中國「直接業務」的曝險低於 10%。因此我們那一端的業務——仍然維持完整。但更重要的是,客戶開始用更長期的角度思考:他們要如何在採購來源上取得更好的平衡。

  • And so if you won't see them doing this thing, I have a part that's already in existence. Let me go move it to a better footprint because that's redundant engineering. What we're really starting to see them think about is that next product family. The kind of the design wins that we'll get going forward that will turn into revenue 12 to 18 months later.

    因此你不會看到他們做這種事:我有一個已經存在的產品,讓我把它搬到一個更好的佈局,因為那會是重複的工程投入。我們真正開始看到的是,他們在思考下一個產品家族。也就是我們未來會拿到的那些設計導入(design wins),在 12 到 18 個月後轉化為營收。

  • So I view 2023 to be the year where we'll start to see more and more products come our way for that next-generation product that then become revenue starting 2024 and beyond. And then another dynamic that we're seeing taking place, we talk about single source business. We still have a second source business. But in some cases, we're starting to see customers move us from being the second source to being the prime source, giving us the preferential supply side of that. Again, part of this rebalancing of their supply chain to be a little bit more geographic spread around the globe, which, as you know, as you stated, plays well into GF's footprint.

    所以我認為 2023 年會是我們開始看到越來越多產品朝我們而來的一年,這些是下一代產品,並在 2024 年及之後開始轉為營收。另一個我們看到正在發生的動態是:我們談到單一來源(single source)業務。我們仍有第二來源(second source)業務,但在某些情況下,我們開始看到客戶把我們從第二來源移到主要來源(prime source),讓我們在供應端取得優先地位。這同樣是他們重新平衡供應鏈的一部分,讓地理分布更分散;如你所知、也如你所說,這與 GF 的佈局非常契合。

  • The second part of your question was on automotive. Look, our design wins already in the pipeline get us to that 2023 annualized run rate, David cited in his prepared remarks and you just quoted that $1 billion run rate. But I would tell you, we are engaging -- it's the fastest-growing market for us. We're engaging each and every day.

    你問題的第二部分是汽車。你看,我們管線中既有的設計導入,已經能讓我們達到 David 在事先準備的談話中提到、你也剛引用的 2023 年年化 10 億美元的運行水準。但我也想說,我們正在積極投入——這是我們成長最快的市場。我們每天都在與客戶互動。

  • And I think you're going to see coming out of this, a different economic model in the industry where when there's pass-through charges to a very complicated supply chain that automakers will want to play -- have a stronger relationship with foundries so that they don't have to bear the brunt of pass-through of cost that goes through the supply chain and get [work] done. And I would just tell you to stay tuned on that. And I think this is something we're seeing developing real-time in front of us.

    而且我認為你會看到,從這件事發展下去,產業會出現不同的經濟模型:當複雜供應鏈中存在成本轉嫁(pass-through charges)時,車廠會希望與晶圓代工廠建立更緊密的關係,這樣他們就不必承擔沿著供應鏈轉嫁的成本衝擊,並把[work]完成。我只能說請持續關注。我認為這是我們正在眼前即時看到的發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗(Citi)的 Chris Danely。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • So can you just provide a little more color on the pushouts and cancellations you're getting for next year? Maybe talk about which end markets and what the total, I guess, amount has been?

    你能否就明年你們收到的延後(pushouts)與取消(cancellations)提供更多細節?也許談談是哪些終端市場,以及我想,總量大概是多少?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. I'll try to provide the amount of color that I can. Obviously, we need to steer clear of any particular customers or any sensitive information. But when we sit down with our customers, and let's characterize it as a handful of customers. So we've got about 38 LTAs now up to from last quarter. We've sat down and had discussions with a handful of our customers to really look at their forecasted demand for 2023. And I think the first thing that I would note is that these LTAs are all multiyear in length. In fact, the duration is probably sitting closer to 4, maybe slightly over 4 years right now.

    當然。我會盡量在我能說的範圍內提供一些細節。顯然,我們需要避免提及任何特定客戶或敏感資訊。但當我們與客戶坐下來討論時,我們可以把它描述為少數幾家客戶。目前我們的 LTA 大約有 38 份,較上季增加。我們已與其中少數客戶坐下來,深入檢視他們對 2023 年的需求預測。我想我首先要指出的是,這些 LTA 全都是多年期。事實上,目前合約期限可能更接近 4 年,甚至略高於 4 年。

  • And so we're not talking about the entire LTA. We're talking about one period, on near-term period, specifically -- seems to be specifically more related to the first half at this stage of 2023. And so those discussions tend to be centered up around end markets such as smart mobile where, as you know, there's an inventory correction underway. The high end of that market still seems to be holding up fairly well. The low and the mid-tier of that market tends to be undergoing some inventory correction.

    因此,我們談的不是整個 LTA。我們談的是某一個期間、近期的一個期間,具體而言——看起來在 2023 年現階段更明確地與上半年相關。因此,這些討論往往聚焦在終端市場,例如智慧型行動裝置;如你所知,該市場正在進行庫存修正。該市場的高階區段似乎仍維持得相當不錯。低階與中階區段則傾向正在進行一些庫存修正。

  • I would say that's the largest segment that we've had discussions on. I think most of the customers, that handful of customers have tended to be more centered up on that space, the discussions have been quite constructive. The LTAs continue to remain intact in that framework that we discussed earlier and those variables involved in that framework have all been tremendously helpful towards that collaboration. Did you have a follow-up?

    我會說這是我們討論最多的最大區塊。我認為大多數客戶——那少數幾家客戶——的重心較集中在那個領域,討論也相當具建設性。LTAs 仍在我們先前討論的框架下維持不變,而該框架中的各項變數也都對這種合作帶來極大的助益。你有後續問題嗎?

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • Yes. What's the total impact? So how much revenue is getting pushed out or canceled? And maybe talk about how many LTAs have been renegotiated so far and what the total amount of dollars has come out of them?

    有。總體影響是多少?也就是有多少營收被延後或取消?另外也請談談到目前為止有多少份 LTA 已重新協商,以及總共有多少金額從中被調整出來?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Well, I would say that -- I would characterize the total LTA dollar amount as essentially being the same, if not slightly more.

    嗯,我會說——我會將 LTA 的總美元金額描述為基本上相同,甚至略高一些。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD & Analyst

  • For next year?

    是指明年嗎?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No, for the total length of the contract. So we look at these engagements as multiyear in length. I think what we'll comment on for next year is the commentary that we've already provided. And that is that we expect 2023 based upon what we currently see, we expect 2023 to continue to be a modest growth year for us.

    不是,是指合約的整個期間。所以我們看待這些合作是多年期的。我想我們對明年的評論會是我們已經提供過的說法。也就是,基於我們目前所見,我們預期 2023 年對我們而言仍將是溫和成長的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

    我們下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. First question for Tom, maybe just in terms of the change of millimeter wafer demand that you're seeing in the near term, so I totally understand that a lot of that weakness might be driven by the smart mobile end market segment. I was wondering if you could also talk a bit more about how communications as well as data center and also industrial demand for wafers is playing out in the near term here? Is that still holding up fairly well? Or do you also see some demand indicators of softening exiting this year as well?

    我是 Steven,代表 Krish 提問。第一個問題給 Tom,可能想請教你就近期所看到的毫米晶圓需求變化而言——我完全理解其中不少疲弱可能是由智慧型行動終端市場所驅動。我想請你也多談一些,通訊、資料中心,以及工業領域的晶圓需求在近期的表現如何?是否仍維持得相當不錯?或者你也看到一些需求指標在今年結束前出現轉弱?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I think the only end market that continues to outperform is auto. I think we're seeing that. Our customers are seeing that. When you look at some of the growth we've had year-over-year, like at industrial and home IoT, over 80% growth, that's not a sustainable growth rate, right? There probably aren't enough wafers in the world to do that for a decade. But so even though that growth will slow down, it's still a growth opportunity for us. These are important end markets. So I would tell you that growth still is strong.

    你看,我認為唯一持續優於預期的終端市場是汽車。我想我們看到了,我們的客戶也看到了。當你看我們年對年在工業與家用 IoT 等領域的成長——超過 80% 的成長——那不是可持續的成長率,對吧?世界上可能沒有足夠的晶圓能讓那樣的成長維持十年。但即便成長會放緩,對我們而言仍是成長機會。這些都是重要的終端市場。所以我會告訴你,成長仍然強勁。

  • I think there's the potential for the auto to be the one that never really goes through a cycle in this cycle and it comes out even stronger. And then the rest of them will go in order. I think this is a -- little bit of a lumpy. Not everything went down at once, certain end markets, memory on PCs went kind of first and then others followed. And they'll come back out in that order.

    我認為汽車在這一輪循環中可能會是那個幾乎不會真正進入下行循環的市場,並且在走出循環時更強。其餘市場會依序進入。我認為這次有點不均勻(lumpy)。不是所有市場同時下滑;某些終端市場,例如 PC 的記憶體,算是先下去,然後其他才跟上。而它們也會依照那個順序回升。

  • And for us, it's more about making sure that we stay focused on leveraging our capacity in the end markets where there's demand, figuring on how to fung the capacity, do multiple qualifications like we announced in the prepared remarks so that we can use all our capacity to where the demand is. And that's where we keep our focus.

    對我們而言,更重要的是確保我們持續專注於在有需求的終端市場中運用我們的產能,思考如何讓產能具可替代性(fungible),並進行多重認證(qualifications),就像我們在事先準備的講稿中宣布的那樣,如此我們就能把所有產能用在需求所在之處。這就是我們的重點。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • Great. One quick one for Dave on the OpEx or cost reductions. I think you mentioned the sort of annualized cost savings run rate of about $200 million. I was wondering if the time line to reach that cost savings run rate is sort of in the next couple of quarters? Or is there possibly some flexibility on when you hit that run rate depending on how the macro (inaudible) plays out next year?

    很好。給 Dave 一個關於 OpEx 或成本削減的快問。我想你提到年化成本節省的執行率大約是 2 億美元。我想請教,達到這個節省執行率的時間軸是否是在接下來幾個季度?或者依明年總體經濟(inaudible)的走勢,你們在達成該執行率的時間點上是否有一些彈性?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. We're moving pretty aggressively on the cost containment activities, and of the annualized $200 million, I think our expectation would be to try to get at least half of that next year, if not 3 quarters. So that's the way we're currently thinking about it.

    當然。我們在成本控管活動上推進得相當積極。就年化 2 億美元而言,我想我們的預期是明年至少達成其中一半,甚至可能達到四分之三。這是我們目前的思考方式。

  • Kinney Chin - VP

    Kinney Chin - VP

  • Congratulations on the strong results.

    恭喜你們的強勁成果。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Thanks, Steve.

    謝謝你,Steve。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

    我們下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. A couple of follow-ups. I'm wondering if there is any update on the chips -- if there's any update on the CHIPS Act that you can share with us?

    是的。有幾個追問。我想知道關於晶片——關於《CHIPS 法案》是否有任何最新進展可以與我們分享?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I guess I'll expand your question, what is GF doing with the CHIPS bill? If you roll back to our earnings call last quarter, it was on the actual day the President signed the CHIPS bill. And then the U.S. government is off to the races to figure out how to go deploy this money in a meaningful way to get the outcomes they were looking for. From a GF perspective, we will not put capacity on without customers committed to that demand.

    有。我想我把你的問題延伸一下:GF 對《CHIPS 法案》在做什麼?如果回到我們上季的法說會,那天正好是總統簽署《CHIPS 法案》的當天。之後美國政府就全力以赴,思考如何以有意義的方式部署這筆資金,以達成他們想要的結果。從 GF 的角度來看,若沒有客戶承諾相應需求,我們不會先行擴增產能。

  • And so we're working in parallel, putting our proposal together with the RFPs that will come -- go into Washington in the early part of 2023, in parallel working with our customers to aggregate the type of demand we would need to commit to that kind of build-out. And for us, we think of using the CHIPS bill in kind of 3 buckets.

    因此,我們一方面在準備我們的提案,配合將會發布的 RFP(徵求提案)——會在 2023 年初送交華盛頓;同時也與客戶並行合作,彙整我們需要的需求類型,以便承諾那樣的擴建。對我們而言,我們把《CHIPS 法案》的運用大致分成三個桶(面向)。

  • The first is to fill up the expansion of our existing facility in Fab 8 and Malta, New York. The second one would be to create some extra capability of technology in our Burlington, Vermont facility. And then lastly, the longer range play is to go add a modular expansion, new brick-and-mortar, new clean room space in Fab 8 in Malta, New York.

    第一是把我們位於紐約州馬爾他(Malta)的 Fab 8 既有廠區擴建填滿。第二是為我們位於佛蒙特州伯靈頓(Burlington)的廠區增加一些額外的技術能力。最後,較長期的布局是,在紐約州馬爾他(Malta)的 Fab 8 增加模組化擴建——新的實體建築、新的無塵室空間。

  • And so that's the order which we think about how we would go add this capacity. The rate and pace at which we do it will be dictated by how quickly our customers are looking for us to create this capacity for them as they think about rebalancing their supply chains and bringing some of that product to the states.

    因此,這就是我們考量新增產能的順序。我們執行的速度與節奏,將取決於客戶希望我們多快為他們建立這些產能,因為他們在思考重新平衡供應鏈,並把部分產品帶回美國。

  • I call it the $52 billion question. Because the $52 billion in the CHIPS bill is solving one part of the equation that's going to help create the capacity. The other part of the equation is making sure that the demand finds its way back to the U.S. And that's the part we're all working on now to make sure we can go secure that demand, that certainty of business so that we make these investments with confidence, and we make these investments with the right returns that any business would want. Any other follow-ups to that?

    我把它稱為「520 億美元的問題」。因為《CHIPS 法案》中的 520 億美元解決了方程式的一部分,能協助建立產能。方程式的另一部分,是確保需求能回流到美國。這也是我們現在都在努力的部分,確保我們能取得那個需求、那個業務確定性,讓我們能有信心地投資,並且以任何企業都會想要的合理報酬來投資。還有其他追問嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Actually, I do. I think the bigger part of the CHIPS Act that would make the U.S. cost comparable to Italy is the tax credit. And given the NOLs, I think we're all waiting to get more color as how GF would benefit from the dollars of allocation outside of the CapEx rebate. And I'm wondering if there's an update there.

    其實有。我認為《CHIPS 法案》中更能讓美國成本與義大利相當的部分是稅額抵免。而考量到 NOL(淨營運虧損結轉),我想大家都在等更多細節,了解 GF 將如何從資本支出補助(CapEx rebate)之外的資金分配中受益。我想問這部分是否有更新。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes, the investment tax credit, as we read it, is pretty straightforward. And so those are any investments to increase domestic capacity. That tooling and those investments will be available to have a 25% rebate essentially during the next tax filing season. And that rebate is applicable regardless of your net tax paying status.

    有,投資稅額抵免(investment tax credit),就我們的解讀而言,相當直接。也就是任何用於提升國內產能的投資。那些設備(tooling)與投資,基本上可在下一個報稅季享有 25% 的退還(rebate)。而且不論你是否為淨納稅狀態,這項退還都適用。

  • So our belief is that we will be able to leverage those investment tax credits to accelerate our investments in the U.S. And so while we haven't incorporated any of that into our current numbers, we do have a plan to leverage that opportunity.

    因此,我們相信我們將能運用這些投資稅額抵免來加速我們在美國的投資。雖然我們尚未把這些納入目前的數字之中,但我們確實有一個計畫來運用這個機會。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • I see. And then can I actually have one other follow-up question that has to do...

    了解。那我其實還有另一個追問,與……有關。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Mehdi.

    請說,Mehdi。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And that has to do with your days of inventory. I think that increase in days of inventory is a reflection of some of the wafer shipment that may be pushed out because of some weakness in the first half. Is that the right way to think about that uptick in DOI?

    這與你們的庫存天數有關。我認為庫存天數的增加,反映了因上半年一些疲弱而可能被延後的部分晶圓出貨。用這樣的方式來理解 DOI 上升,是否正確?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No. In total, if you go back to the end of last year, and I'm going back to the kind of end of last year balance sheet, 12/31/21, total inventory has grown only about $200 million on a base of about $1 billion. And if you go through and you look at that, our total inventory, about $1.1 billion of WIP, that is all inventory that's in the line that we expect to ship to our customers on a timely basis.

    不會。整體而言,如果你回到去年年底——我指的是去年年底的資產負債表,也就是 12/31/21——總存貨在約 10 億美元的基礎上僅增加了約 2 億美元。而如果你仔細看,我們的總存貨中,約 11 億美元是 WIP(在製品),這些都是在產線上的存貨,我們預期能及時出貨給客戶。

  • We do not have some large buildup of finished goods inventory. This is work in process that you would expect to grow as you're continuing to increase capacity quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter. And so I would characterize the increase in WIP to date as being very much associated in line with expectation and associated with capacity increases quarter-to-quarter.

    我們並沒有大量累積成品存貨。這些是在製品,隨著你持續逐季提升產能,這類存貨理應會增加。因此,我會將迄今 WIP 的增加描述為非常符合預期,且與逐季的產能提升密切相關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rajvindra Gill with Needham.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Rajvindra Gill。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. And congrats on solid results in a very tumultuous environment. Dave, I just wanted to follow up on the CapEx commentary, I think you might have touched upon it a little bit. But how do we think about how you manage CapEx in a potential down cycle? During the IPO process this year and next year, there was a significant ramp in CapEx due to some of the capacity expansion plans you have in place and then it would kind of tailor off in 2024.

    是的。也恭喜你們在非常動盪的環境中交出穩健的成績。Dave,我想追問一下資本支出(CapEx)的評論,我想你可能稍微提到了一點。但我們該如何看待你們在潛在下行週期中管理 CapEx?在今年與明年的 IPO 過程中,由於你們既有的一些產能擴張計畫,CapEx 有顯著拉升,然後在 2024 年會逐步回落。

  • How do you -- what are the drivers or the levers you can push to ratchet back down CapEx if you do see a down cycle or more of a reduction in orders that go beyond just smartphone customers? I'm curious how you're thinking about that over the next year.

    如果你們確實看到下行週期,或是訂單下滑不僅限於智慧型手機客戶,你們有哪些驅動因素或可操作的槓桿可以把 CapEx 再往下調?我很好奇你們對未來一年的思考。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Let me give you some high-level thoughts on CapEx. And I'm going to start with free cash flow, and I'll end with CapEx. Year-to-date cash from operations about $2.1 billion, year-to-date CapEx, just slightly under $2.1 billion. And so as we enter the third quarter from a free cash flow perspective, cash from ops minus CapEx, we're slightly positive on a year in which we've already spent about $2 billion for CapEx. So I would say just as a framework, very good alignment between our cash generation ability and our investment in capacity.

    當然。我先給你一些關於 CapEx 的高層次想法。我會先從自由現金流談起,最後再回到 CapEx。今年迄今營運活動現金流約 21 億美元,今年迄今 CapEx 也略低於 21 億美元。因此,從自由現金流的角度來看——營運現金流減 CapEx——在我們已經花了約 20 億美元 CapEx 的一年裡,進入第三季時我們仍是小幅正值。所以我會說,作為一個框架,我們的現金創造能力與產能投資之間有非常好的匹配。

  • The second thing that I would speak to is our customer demand. So we are actively moving our CapEx to align with our customers' demand. And so while we wanted more CapEx in the early part of this year and our WFE suppliers, they're working hard, were unable to supply us with everything that we needed. We were able to deliver productivity to continue to execute against the LTA commitments that we've made. And so we are banking those productivity gains.

    第二點我想談的是客戶需求。我們正積極調整 CapEx 以與客戶需求對齊。因此,雖然我們在今年前半段希望投入更多 CapEx,而我們的 WFE(晶圓廠設備)供應商也在努力,但他們無法供應我們所需的全部設備。我們仍能透過提升生產力,持續履行我們已做出的 LTA(長期協議)承諾。因此,我們把這些生產力提升的成果先累積起來。

  • And we're now working with the WFE vendors to make sure that we get the critical pieces of tooling that are necessary to still grow the capacity for that customer demand. And as the demand changes, then we'll move and shift the capacity such that we can keep that capacity as best as we're able and in alignment with that customer demand.

    而我們現在正與 WFE 供應商合作,確保取得那些仍然需要、用以因應客戶需求而擴充產能的關鍵設備。隨著需求變化,我們也會移動並調整產能配置,盡可能維持產能並與客戶需求保持一致。

  • So our forecast has come down now for the year. Total CapEx for the year is somewhere between, call it, $3 billion to $3.3 billion. As we think about next year, you should think about us considering our free cash flow generation ability in context with our customer demand and trying to match up and align those variables.

    因此,我們今年的預測已經下修。全年總 CapEx 大約在 30 億到 33 億美元之間。展望明年,你應該把我們的自由現金流創造能力放在客戶需求的脈絡下來看,並嘗試讓這些變數彼此匹配與對齊。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. That's really helpful. And just for my follow-up, you mentioned utilization rates kind of trending a little bit lower in the -- particularly in the 200-millimeter. Wondering if you could quantify what your current utilization rates are going into Q4? And how do we think about the utilization rates going into the first half of 2023 as some of these customers start to reduce orders on the smartphone side?

    是的,這很有幫助。再追問一下,你提到產能利用率似乎有些走低——特別是在 200 毫米。想請你量化一下,進入第四季時你們目前的利用率大概是多少?以及當一些客戶在智慧型手機端開始減少訂單時,我們該如何看待 2023 年上半年的利用率?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • I'll -- let me provide some commentary. I'll try to keep most of the guidance to one quarter. Third quarter, we were essentially fully utilized, very high 90s as a blended utilization rate. When we look at our guidance for fourth quarter, we're probably in the low to mid-90s type of rate, still very highly or fully utilized on the 300-millimeter side with the negative impact to utilization really being on the 200-millimeter side. With respect to 2023, I'll just kind of go back to our prior statements, which were we still expect 2023 to be a modest growth year for us.

    我來補充一些說明。我會盡量把指引聚焦在單一季度。第三季我們基本上是滿載,綜合利用率在 90% 高段。看我們對第四季的指引,可能會落在 90% 低段到中段;300 毫米端仍然是非常高、甚至滿載的利用率,利用率下滑的負面影響主要在 200 毫米端。至於 2023 年,我就回到我們先前的說法:我們仍預期 2023 年對我們而言會是溫和成長的一年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Matt Bryson。

  • Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

    Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

  • It seems like your characterization of the demand environment very much mirrors what your customers are saying. With demand weakness and inventory adjustments predominantly impacting calendar Q4 and the first half of next year, it's good to hear that you're shifting your CapEx plans to fit end market demand.

    看起來你們對需求環境的描述與你們客戶的說法非常一致。需求走弱與庫存調整主要影響日曆年第四季以及明年上半年;很高興聽到你們正在調整 CapEx 計畫以符合終端市場需求。

  • I guess my question is, assuming this scenario indeed plays out, should we expect that the $50 million underutilization costs you're calling out, is that a peak underutilization charge? Or can we expect there's greater underutilization in, say, calendar Q1 when it appears conditions will be at their worst?

    我的問題是,假設這個情境確實發生,我們是否應該把你們提到的 5,000 萬美元產能未充分利用成本視為未充分利用費用的高峰?還是我們可以預期在日曆年第一季——看起來狀況最差的時候——會有更高的未充分利用?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. I think I'll just stick with guiding one quarter at a time at this point, Matt. I think what you're hearing us articulate is that we believe our long-term growth prospects remain intact, that we believe we can modestly grow through 2023. But I think you're also hearing us say that we are proactively managing the company for cost containment activities to be able to perform regardless of macroeconomic scenario. So I think we'll standpat on that commentary. Do you have any follow-up questions?

    是的,Matt,我想此刻我仍會堅持一次只提供一個季度的指引。我想你們聽到我們在表達的是:我們相信長期成長前景依然完好,我們相信 2023 年仍能溫和成長。但你們也聽到我們說,我們正在主動以成本控管的方式來管理公司,使其能在任何總體經濟情境下都能表現。因此,我們就先維持這些評論不變。你還有追問嗎?

  • Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

    Matthew Stevens Bryson - SVP of Equity Research

  • Yes. My follow-up is when you talk to the expectation of pricing lifts in 2023, should I be thinking about that more as a like-for-like commentary? Or is that more of a statement around where GF's pricing can go given either mix benefits or some sort of premium being attached to locality of supply?

    有的。我的追問是,當你談到 2023 年價格上調的預期時,我應該把它更多理解為同品同規(like-for-like)的評論?還是更多是在說 GF 的定價在產品組合改善、或因供應在地化而附加某種溢價的情況下可以走到哪裡?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. So our visibility on pricing, first and foremost, is really grounded in our LTA visibility. So we are continuing to ramp those LTAs. Not all those LTAs went into effect January 1, 2022. They've continued to ramp throughout this year. There's additional LTAs that we're expecting to come online and ramp with volume in 2023, and those LTAs include better pricing.

    當然。我們對定價的能見度,首先是建立在我們對 LTA 的能見度之上。因此,我們正在持續拉升這些 LTA 的出貨量。並非所有 LTA 都在 2022 年 1 月 1 日生效;它們在今年持續逐步爬坡。我們也預期還會有更多 LTA 在 2023 年上線並隨著量的提升而爬坡,而這些 LTA 包含更好的價格條件。

  • And so it's hard to separate out some of the like-for-like pricing versus mix, but I think what you're hearing us articulate is that if you took those 2 categories together, you're going to continue to see some very modest uplift in ASP per wafer from 2022 to 2023.

    因此,要把同品同規的價格變化與組合效應完全拆開並不容易,但我想你們聽到我們在表達的是:如果把這兩類因素合在一起看,你將會看到每片晶圓的 ASP 從 2022 年到 2023 年仍會有非常溫和的上升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Gerra with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Tristan Gerra。

  • Tristan Gerra - Senior Research Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just looking at your commentary about your expectation that mid next year could be a trough. Is that based on the expectation that the inventory correction actually end at that point? Is that specific to smartphone? And does that mean that you could recapture what you've lost in terms of lower utilization rates in Q4 and potentially in the first half of next year with a rebound in utilization rate in the second half as a result? Understanding your only guide one quarter at a time.

    就你們提到的「明年年中可能是谷底」的預期來看,這是基於庫存修正會在那個時間點結束的預期嗎?這是否特別針對智慧型手機?這是否意味著你們在第四季以及可能在明年上半年因較低利用率所失去的部分,能在下半年因利用率回升而重新拿回來?我理解你們一次只提供一個季度的指引。

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Look, our view on 2023 has really been developed in conjunction with our customers. And so when we think about our future, you think about how much business that we have single source, 90% of design wins, about 2/3 of our volume that we ship today is single source and continuing to grow. And so we work with our customers on their demand profile. And so when we provide some general color commentary on 2023, that sounds similar to that customer base. It's not a surprise.

    是的。你看,我們對 2023 年的看法確實是與客戶共同建立的。因此,當我們思考未來時,你要考量我們有多少業務是單一來源(single source):90% 的設計導入(design wins),以及我們今天出貨量約 2/3 是單一來源,而且還在持續成長。因此我們會與客戶一起看他們的需求輪廓。當我們對 2023 年提供一些一般性的補充說明時,聽起來會與那個客戶群的說法相似,這並不令人意外。

  • I'm going to hold off providing additional color on 2023 other than to kind of reiterate some of our prior comments, which was really that based upon our discussions with customers, we think the first half is the trough. We think that it's perhaps more likely than not first quarter versus second quarter, but we'll continue to assess that in collaboration with our customers.

    除了重申我們先前的一些評論之外,我暫時不再提供更多關於 2023 年的補充說明;也就是說,根據我們與客戶的討論,我們認為上半年是谷底。我們認為更可能是第一季而非第二季,但我們會持續與客戶合作評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Randy Abrams with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 Randy Abrams。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Yes. I wanted to ask a question just about the relative difference 8-inch versus 12-inch. Could you talk on the 12-inch, the drivers for that strength holding resilient? And then also, do you think it's a timing difference where we should see that correction to come through a little bit later?

    好的。是的。我想問一個關於 8 吋相較於 12 吋之間相對差異的問題。您能談談 12 吋方面,支撐其強勁表現並保持韌性的驅動因素嗎?另外,您是否認為這只是時點差異,也就是我們應該會在稍晚一些看到那個修正出現?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. Again, I'll speak perhaps a bit to our LTAs. Our LTAs really have -- we have very, very good coverage across our 300-millimeter manufacturing base with regards to LTAs. And so that tends to be where we have added the most differentiation. Certainly, we have some differentiation on the 200-millimeter side with SiGe and GaN and some other products that are quite unique. But really, on the 300-millimeter side, we've got a tremendous amount of coverage from LTAs. And so I think from that perspective, that's why you're seeing the 300-millimeter utilization hold up significantly better than the 200-millimeter.

    當然。再次,我可能會先談談我們的 LTA。我們在 300 毫米製造基地方面,LTA 的覆蓋其實非常、非常好。因此,那往往是我們增加最多差異化的地方。當然,在 200 毫米端,我們在 SiGe、GaN 以及一些相當獨特的其他產品上也有一些差異化。但真正來說,在 300 毫米端,我們有大量的 LTA 覆蓋。所以我認為從這個角度來看,這就是為什麼你會看到 300 毫米的稼動率明顯比 200 毫米更能撐住。

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Let me add a couple of points here. We happen to also be playing in markets that are holding up better than others. So when we think about high-end handsets, that holds up better than the low-end handsets. We think about the 5G transition, that's still going -- that's still a growth this year in a number of handsets that are 5G enabled, we play in that segment.

    是的。我再補充幾點。我們也剛好參與了一些比其他市場更能撐住的市場。因此,當我們想到高階手機,它的表現比低階手機更能撐住。我們想到 5G 轉換,這仍在進行——今年在多款支援 5G 的手機上仍然是成長,我們也在那個區隔中。

  • So we think of data center, we're a strong partner with someone who is gaining share in data center, and we're a supplier to that. So some of the damping we're seeing is not only the breadth of the end markets we play in, but some of the sub parts of that, that are still very strong and some of the customers in those segments that are doing well.

    再比如資料中心,我們與一位正在資料中心取得市占的夥伴有很強的合作關係,而我們是其供應商。所以我們看到的放緩,不僅取決於我們所參與終端市場的廣度,也取決於其中一些仍然非常強勁的子領域,以及在那些區隔中表現良好的一些客戶。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Good. That's helpful. And the second question I wanted to ask, I wanted to follow up the $200 million OpEx is quite sizable relative to the annual base. Just curious, given the plans to continue to grow the footprint, grow into more specialty, if you could give a few buckets where you're seeing good room to make those type of reductions. And then just one housekeeping. With the CapEx change, how you see the depreciation changing year-over-year into next year?

    很好。這很有幫助。第二個問題我想問的是,我想追問一下:2 億美元的 OpEx 相對於年度基礎規模相當可觀。只是好奇,考量到你們計畫持續擴大版圖、往更多特殊製程發展,能否提供幾個你們看到有很大空間可以做這類削減的類別?另外一個例行問題:隨著 CapEx 的變動,你們如何看待折舊在明年相較今年的年增變化?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Sure. So let me take those in order here. With respect to OpEx, we've -- rough and tough numbers, it's about $1 billion in OpEx, probably closer to $900 million, if you were to do the rounding $1 billion. So when you think about the split of the $200 million annualized, you're probably talking 2/3, 1/3 OpEx versus COGS. So when you think about that type of spend and you think about the opportunities that we have in those areas, I think between professional services, travel, entertainment, labor, of course, we're looking at all of the levers for addressing our spending to be able to enter any environment.

    當然。我依序回答。就 OpEx 而言,我們——用粗略但務實的數字來說,大約是 10 億美元的 OpEx,如果四捨五入算 10 億,實際可能更接近 9 億美元。所以當你看 2 億美元年化的拆分時,大概是 2/3、1/3 分別落在 OpEx 與 COGS。當你想到這種支出規模,以及我們在這些領域的機會時,我認為在專業服務、差旅、招待、以及人力等方面,當然,我們正在檢視所有槓桿來處理支出,以便能夠應對任何環境。

  • And so I think we've got -- we've got opportunities in all those areas to become more productive. And quite frankly, we had a series of plans to drive productivity over a multiyear period. And so I would characterize a lot of this as kind of the acceleration of some of those plans versus having to create or craft new ones as we go. So I think that's where we stand with respect to OpEx. We're assessing that today. As I mentioned, we'll provide more details as we continue that assessment.

    因此我認為——我們在所有這些領域都有機會提升生產力。坦白說,我們原本就有一系列計畫要在多年期間推動生產力提升。所以我會把其中很大一部分描述為加速某些既有計畫,而不是在過程中必須重新創造或打造新的計畫。這就是我們在 OpEx 方面的立場。我們目前正在評估。如我提到的,隨著評估持續進行,我們會提供更多細節。

  • With regards to CapEx and managing CapEx with respect to gross margin as well as a percentage of revenue, I think what we've been able to do this year is we've been able to drive more productivity this year than we previously expected. And so while we were delayed in terms of receiving new equipment to be able to ultimately deliver more wafers, we were able to find a way in credit to 15,000 hard-working employees that we're able to find a way to drive that productivity to deliver those wafers without some of those tool shipments.

    關於 CapEx,以及以毛利率與營收占比的角度來管理 CapEx,我認為我們今年能做到的是,我們今年推動的生產力提升比先前預期更多。因此,雖然我們在取得新設備方面有所延遲,原本是為了最終交付更多晶圓,但我們仍然找到方法——也要歸功於 15,000 名辛勤工作的員工——在沒有部分機台出貨的情況下,仍能推動生產力來交付那些晶圓。

  • So that created the opportunity for us to push out some of the CapEx and better match some of that CapEx with our customers' demand. That's something that we've been able to do kind of through the latter half of this year. It's something that as we head into 2023, we expect to be able to continue to do, drive productivity and match our utilization as well as our capacity expansions up to customers' demand.

    因此,這為我們創造了機會,可以把部分 CapEx 往後遞延,並讓部分 CapEx 與客戶需求更好地匹配。這是我們在今年下半年能做到的事。當我們邁向 2023 年時,我們預期能持續做到:推動生產力,並讓我們的稼動率以及產能擴充與客戶需求相匹配。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • We'll take one last question, please.

    請讓我們再接最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question comes from the line of Melissa Fairbanks with Raymond James.

    我們最後一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Melissa Fairbanks。

  • Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

    Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

  • Great. I just have a couple of quick ones. I know you're tired of talking about 2023 expectations. But with the auto growth rate, it seems to imply a pretty steep ramp to get to that $1 billion run rate target. Is there any sort of linearity that we should be assuming? As in, is this tied to model year launches driving more of a step function increase kind of toward the back half of the year? Or should it be a smoother path through the year?

    很好。我只有幾個快速問題。我知道你們已經厭倦談 2023 年的展望了。但就汽車的成長率來看,似乎意味著要達到 10 億美元的 run rate 目標,需要相當陡峭的爬坡。是否有任何線性(linearity)假設是我們應該採用的?也就是說,這是否與車款年度(model year)上市帶動、使得在下半年更像階梯式(step function)增加有關?還是應該會是全年更平滑的路徑?

  • David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    David W. Reeder - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • No. We expect it to be pretty linear. We've been capacity constrained on some of our automotive business. In fact, I'd say on the majority of our automotive business. What some of this rebalancing of demand has enabled us to do, it's enabled us to prioritize a little bit more of the automotive demand. You saw us, for example, smart mobile devices decline to 46% of total revenue versus 50% a year ago period.

    不。我們預期會相當線性。我們在部分汽車業務上一直受到產能限制。事實上,我會說在我們大多數的汽車業務上都是如此。這次需求的某些再平衡,讓我們能做的是,讓我們可以更優先滿足一些汽車需求。你們例如看到我們的智慧行動裝置營收占比下降到總營收的 46%,而一年前同期是 50%。

  • As we continue to grow automotive, you're going to see us have a much better product mix balance that goes out into the marketplace. So we're able to rebalance that capacity as well as add some new capacity in some strategic areas to be able to take automotive up in what we expect to be a pretty linear way throughout next year until by the time we exit fourth quarter next year, we're kind of at that $1 billion annualized run rate.

    隨著我們持續成長汽車業務,你會看到我們在投放到市場的產品組合平衡上會好得多。因此,我們能重新平衡那部分產能,同時也在一些策略性領域增加新產能,以便在我們預期相當線性的方式下,於明年全年逐步拉升汽車業務,直到明年第四季結束時,我們大致達到那個年化 10 億美元的 run rate。

  • Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

    Melissa Ann Dailey Fairbanks - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And maybe just a quick follow-up on the CHIPS Act. To the extent you may be more tightly controlling CapEx in the near term, do you know if there are any restrictions to the incentives? Like once you submit an RFP, do you expect to be bound to that? Or is it too early to know how this is going to kind of flow through?

    好的。完美。再追問一個關於 CHIPS Act 的快速問題。若你們在短期內可能更嚴格地控管 CapEx,在獎勵措施方面是否有任何限制?例如一旦你們提交 RFP,就預期會被綁定在那個內容上嗎?還是現在要知道這將如何傳導仍為時過早?

  • Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas H. Caulfield - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I think that's too early to know. I also think the pragmatic approach is no one wants to see capacity built and not being used. That becomes a real waste for everybody. So I think there'll be a very pragmatic approach. And GF will lead the way in making sure that we have -- not only that we have the right funding model to get the return, but we have the right durability and commitment that we know that capacity will be utilized. And I think the -- Washington will want to see the program executed just that way.

    你看,我認為現在要知道還太早。我也認為務實的做法是,沒有人希望看到產能建好了卻沒有被使用。那對所有人來說都會是真正的浪費。所以我認為會採取非常務實的方式。而 GF 會帶頭確保——不僅我們有正確的資金模式以取得回報,我們也有正確的持久性與承諾,讓我們知道那個產能會被利用。我認為——華盛頓也會希望看到這個計畫以這樣的方式被執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Sukhi Nagesh for closing remarks.

    以上為今天的問答環節。接下來我想把電話交回給 Sukhi Nagesh 做結語。

  • Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

    Sukhi Nagesh - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Liz. Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. Please feel free to reach out if you have any additional information or questions you need answered from GF. Thank you.

    謝謝你,Liz。也謝謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。如果你們還需要 GF 提供任何額外資訊或有任何問題需要解答,歡迎隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。