Genesco Inc (GCO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Genesco Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. Just a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Genesco 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I will now turn the call over to Darryl MacQuarrie, Senior Director of FP&A. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給 FP&A 高級總監 Darryl MacQuarrie。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter fiscal 2023 results. Participants on the call expect to make forward-looking statements reflecting their expectations as of today, but actual results could be different. Genesco refers you to this morning's earnings release and the company's SEC filings, including its most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings, for some of the factors that could cause differences from the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements made today. Participants also expect to refer to certain adjusted financial measure during the call. All non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled to the GAAP counterparts in the attachment to this morning's press release and in schedules available on the company's website in the Quarterly Results section. We have also posted a presentation summarizing our results.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們討論我們 2023 財年第三季度的業績。電話會議的參與者希望做出前瞻性陳述，以反映他們截至今天的預期，但實際結果可能會有所不同。 Genesco 建議您參考今天上午的收益發布和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括其最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件，了解可能導致與今天發表的前瞻性聲明中反映的預期存在差異的一些因素。與會者還希望在電話會議期間參考某些調整後的財務指標。所有非 GAAP 財務指標都與今天上午新聞稿附件中的 GAAP 對應指標以及公司網站“季度業績”部分提供的時間表相一致。我們還發布了一份總結我們結果的演示文稿。

With me on the call today is Mimi Vaughn, Board Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will begin our prepared remarks with an overview of the period and the progress we are making to drive the business. And Tom George, Chief Financial Officer, who will review the quarterly financials in more detail and provide guidance for fiscal '23.

今天和我一起打電話的是董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Mimi Vaughn，她將在我們準備好的發言開始時概述這段時期以及我們在推動業務方面取得的進展。首席財務官湯姆·喬治 (Tom George) 將更詳細地審查季度財務數據，並為 23 財年提供指導。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mimi.

現在我想把電話轉給 Mimi。

Thanks, Darryl. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝，達里爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。

We are pleased with our overall results, particularly sales and gross margin performance. Against last year's record third quarter, we grew revenue 4% on a constant currency basis, achieving significant improvement over the first half of the year, and comps were up 3% with every business posting positive gains.

我們對我們的整體業績感到滿意，尤其是銷售和毛利率表現。與去年創紀錄的第三季度相比，我們的收入在固定匯率基礎上增長了 4%，比今年上半年實現了顯著改善，並且 comp 增長了 3%，每項業務都實現了正增長。

At the same time, gross margins were better than we expected as we lapped last year's unusually strong gain. The progress we have made with our footwear-focused strategy to increase digital penetration, strengthen consumer connections, grow our footwear brands and reshape our retail cost structure has put the company in a better position to both outperform and favorable economic backdrop like we experienced last year and effectively navigate the more difficult consumer and market conditions we're facing today.

與此同時，毛利率好於我們的預期，因為我們超越了去年異常強勁的增長。我們以鞋類為中心的戰略在提高數字滲透率、加強消費者聯繫、發展我們的鞋類品牌和重塑我們的零售成本結構方面取得了進展，使公司處於更好的位置，既能跑贏大盤，又能像我們去年所經歷的那樣，在有利的經濟背景下並有效地駕馭我們今天面臨的更困難的消費者和市場條件。

The third quarter played out largely as we had anticipated with many consumers coming out to shop when there was a reason to buy and retreating to conserve cash during the in-between periods. This was a real change from the strong selling environment a year ago when the back-to-school selling season extended into late September and October, driven by higher consumer savings levels and pent-up demand and students bought anything that was in stock and available.

第三季度的表現基本符合我們的預期，許多消費者在有理由購買時會前來購物，而在此期間又會退縮以節省現金。與一年前強勁的銷售環境相比，這是一個真正的變化，當時返校銷售旺季延長至 9 月下旬和 10 月，這是由於消費者儲蓄水平提高和被壓抑的需求推動的，學生們購買了任何有庫存和可用的東西.

Like they have since the beginning of the pandemic, our teams were prepared for whatever came their way and did an excellent job capturing demand when the consumer emerged and shopped. At the same time, the diversity of our multi-division business and consumer segments proved beneficial. Robust spending by Schuh's customers in the U.K. and J&M's more affluent customers in the U.S. drove healthy top line gains.

就像他們自大流行開始以來所做的那樣，我們的團隊為遇到的任何事情做好了準備，並且在消費者出現和購物時出色地抓住了需求。與此同時，事實證明，我們的多部門業務和消費者細分市場的多樣性是有益的。 Schuh 在英國的客戶和 J&M 在美國更富裕的客戶的強勁支出推動了健康的收入增長。

We entered the pandemic in a position of strength, navigated the heart of the pandemic well and emerged stronger. That said, current market conditions presented some challenges that weighed on third quarter profitability, including the return to a more normalized markdown and promotional cadence, wage and operating cost inflation and anniversarying some onetime major expense benefit.

我們以實力進入大流行，很好地度過了大流行的核心，變得更加強大。也就是說，當前的市場狀況給第三季度的盈利能力帶來了一些挑戰，包括回歸更正常的降價和促銷節奏、工資和運營成本通脹以及紀念一些曾經的主要費用福利。

Overall, I'm pleased with our execution as we managed through the impact of all this.

總的來說，我對我們的執行感到滿意，因為我們設法克服了所有這些影響。

Other key highlights for the third quarter, in addition to the revenue growth and sequential top line improvement include, both store and digital comps were nicely positive, highlighting the strength of our omnichannel offering and channel choice we give consumers. Digital sales, a key strategic growth priority were up almost 75% compared to pre-pandemic levels, maintaining essentially all the pandemic growth, representing 18% of retail sales and sustaining strong double-digit profitability.

第三季度的其他主要亮點，除了收入增長和連續的收入改善外，商店和數字收入都非常積極，凸顯了我們為消費者提供的全渠道產品和渠道選擇的實力。數字銷售是一項關鍵的戰略增長重點，與大流行前的水平相比增長了近 75%，基本上保持了大流行期間的所有增長，佔零售額的 18%，並保持了兩位數的強勁盈利能力。

Gross margin was better than expected as we did not pertake an aggressive discounting despite an increasingly promotional environment in the U.S. Adjusted EPS of $1.65 compares to last year's level of $2.36 but represents a 24% increase over pre-pandemic levels. And while at the same time investing in our business, we returned capital to shareholders, repurchasing about 3.5% of shares outstanding during the quarter.

毛利率好於預期，因為儘管美國的促銷環境越來越好，但我們沒有進行激進的折扣。與去年的 2.36 美元相比，調整後每股收益為 1.65 美元，但比大流行前水平增長了 24%。在投資我們業務的同時，我們向股東返還資本，在本季度回購了約 3.5% 的已發行股票。

So turning now to discuss each business, starting with retail. Back-to-school is a major driver of Q3 sales for both Journeys and Schuh. After getting off to a slow start in late July, Journeys' sales sharply accelerated in August and early September, as consumers reverted to more typical back-to-school buying behavior. Both fashion athletic and casual footwear sales grew as our expert Journeys merchants delivered compelling assortments that resonated with our teen consumers. Casual continued its run, outstripping the growth of fashion athletic.

所以現在轉向討論每個業務，從零售開始。返校季是 Journeys 和 Schuh 第三季度銷售額的主要推動力。在 7 月下旬起步緩慢之後，Journeys 的銷售在 8 月和 9 月初急劇加速，因為消費者恢復了更典型的返校購買行為。時尚運動鞋和休閒鞋的銷售額均有所增長，因為我們的專業 Journeys 商家提供了引人注目的分類，引起了我們青少年消費者的共鳴。休閒風繼續流行，超過時尚運動風的增長。

We did, however, the ongoing evidence of the Journeys consumer being squeezed by inflation and pressure on their wallet, making fewer trips to shop, trading down to more excessively priced products and pulling back on non-footwear add-on purchases. The breadth of its assortment, careful planning for this potential shift and strong vendor partnerships allowed Journeys to meet the needs of this more budget-conscious consumer.

然而，我們確實有持續的證據表明，Journeys 消費者受到通貨膨脹和錢包壓力的擠壓，減少了購物次數，轉而購買價格過高的產品，並減少了非鞋類的附加購買。其種類繁多、針對這種潛在轉變的周密規劃以及強大的供應商合作夥伴關係使 Journeys 能夠滿足這種更精打細算的消費者的需求。

The relentless efforts of our store associates and positive in-stock inventory position drove better conversion and higher transaction size as they made the most of customers crossing Journeys' lease line. Following a largely full price selling back-to-school, at the end of this key shopping event, sales slowed later in the quarter.

我們店員的不懈努力和積極的庫存狀況推動了更好的轉化率和更高的交易規模，因為他們充分利用了穿越 Journeys 租賃線的客戶。在這次重要的購物活動結束時，在返校期間大部分全價銷售之後，本季度晚些時候銷售放緩。

In addition, the business lapped very strong growth a year ago, thanks in part to last year's incentive to shop early for Christmas, beginning in October due to limited inventory availability and earlier holiday messaging. One specific highlight of the third quarter was Journeys' double-digit digital growth, fueled by effective use of paid search, paid social and a fleet of influencers that continue to drive Journeys' brand awareness.

此外，該業務在一年前取得了非常強勁的增長，部分原因是去年聖誕節提早購物的動機，從 10 月開始，由於庫存有限和提前假期消息。第三季度的一個特別亮點是 Journeys 的兩位數數字增長，這得益於有效使用付費搜索、付費社交以及繼續推動 Journeys 品牌知名度的一系列影響者。

Importantly, research conducted during back-to-school and in November reaffirmed that the majority of Journeys' team customers increasingly believe shoes are the most important part of an outfit, with Journeys maintaining its position as one of the top considered retailers for shoes.

重要的是，在返校期間和 11 月進行的研究再次證實，Journeys 的大多數團隊客戶越來越認為鞋子是服裝中最重要的部分，而 Journeys 保持了其作為最受關注的鞋子零售商之一的地位。

Shifting to the U.K. Schuh built on its strong first half with a solid third quarter as sales increased on a constant currency basis against very strong gains a year ago. Like Journeys, Schuh's strength is identifying the right fashion trends and securing the right product and brands for its youth consumer. The fashion trends driving shoes business largely overlap with the ones driving Journeys.

轉向英國 Schuh 在上半年的強勁表現和穩健的第三季度的基礎上繼續發展，銷售額在固定匯率基礎上有所增長，而一年前的收益非常強勁。與 Journeys 一樣，Schuh 的優勢在於識別正確的時尚趨勢並為其年輕消費者確保正確的產品和品牌。推動鞋業發展的時尚趨勢與推動 Journeys 發展的趨勢在很大程度上是重疊的。

The quarter started with another good back-to-school and despite strengthening U.K. economic headwinds, Schuh maintained its momentum, continuing to take share from competitors by out assorting and out executing. Overall, Schuh is benefiting from better access to higher-tiered products from several key brands, effective marketing strategies like the introduction of its loyalty program, high levels of customer engagement, such as its student events and Schuh's brand purpose pillars which are resonating with its youth consumer. All of which are helping Schuh perform well on a year-over-year basis despite the economic turbulence exchange rate pressure and lapping significant onetime gains.

本季度以又一個良好的開學季開始，儘管英國經濟逆風加劇，但 Schuh 保持了勢頭，繼續通過分類和執行從競爭對手那里奪取市場份額。總體而言，Schuh 受益於更好地接觸幾個主要品牌的更高層次產品、有效的營銷策略（如推出其忠誠度計劃）、高水平的客戶參與度（如其學生活動和與其產生共鳴的 Schuh 品牌宗旨支柱）年輕消費者。所有這些都幫助 Schuh 在經濟動蕩的匯率壓力下實現了同比良好的表現，並取得了顯著的一次性收益。

Turning now to discuss our brands. We're excited about the potential of Johnston & Murphy and very pleased with the traction we're gaining as we reposition the brand for growth. Our efforts to reimagine J&M for a more casual, more comfortable post-pandemic environment are delivering strong results. with Q3 sales up nearly 20% and operating income that doubled compared to last year.

現在轉向討論我們的品牌。我們對 Johnston & Murphy 的潛力感到興奮，並對我們在重新定位品牌以實現增長時獲得的牽引力感到非常高興。我們為打造更休閒、更舒適的大流行後環境而重新構想 J&M 的努力正在取得顯著成果。與去年相比，第三季度銷售額增長近 20%，營業收入翻了一番。

The growth has been broad-based across channels, with stores up 14%, online up 20% and wholesale up 31%. Intensified consumer marketing and fresh new innovative product with technology differentiating J&M's offerings are reaching new customers and fueling market share gains.

增長是跨渠道的廣泛增長，實體店增長 14%，在線增長 20%，批發增長 31%。強化的消費者營銷和具有差異化技術的全新創新產品 J&M 的產品正在吸引新客戶並推動市場份額的增長。

Casual and casual athletic now make up most of J&M's footwear assortment and is a measure of the progress we've made. Dress footwear, for which J&M is best known, now makes up less than 10% of overall sales. This strategic shift has allowed us to position the brand to now reach a broader and younger consumer base, all while maintaining and building upon our premium footwear positioning and price points.

休閒和休閒運動現在構成了 J&M 鞋類產品的大部分，並且是我們取得進步的衡量標準。 J&M 最為人所知的正裝鞋現在佔總銷售額的不到 10%。這一戰略轉變使我們能夠將品牌定位為現在可以覆蓋更廣泛和更年輕的消費者群，同時保持並鞏固我們的優質鞋類定位和價格點。

We are excited about the new direction we've set. We were able to double the size of the brand in its last reset, and believe we now have the opportunity to do that again.

我們對我們設定的新方向感到興奮。我們能夠在上次重置時將品牌規模擴大一倍，相信我們現在有機會再次做到這一點。

Finishing our brand review, solid consumer demand for licensed brands footwear was overshadowed by pressure on gross margins and expenses due to high freight expense and elevated inventory levels in the channels we serve. We believe these issues are temporary affecting this year and early next and remain positive on the longer-term outlook for this business.

完成我們的品牌審查後，由於我們服務的渠道中高運費和高庫存水平，毛利率和費用的壓力使消費者對授權品牌鞋類的強勁需求黯然失色。我們認為這些問題對今年和明年初的影響是暫時的，並且對該業務的長期前景保持樂觀。

Now a brief update on ESG. Following the issuance of our inaugural ESG report, we continue to get credit for the forward strides we're making. With this foundation and now that we've set the baseline for Genesco's global carbon footprint, we'll be working over the next several months to create a strategic road map for key priorities where we aspire to make further improvements. We're advancing these efforts, and we'll share our continued progress.

現在簡單介紹一下 ESG。在我們發布首份 ESG 報告後，我們繼續因我們所取得的進步而受到讚揚。有了這個基礎，現在我們已經為 Genesco 的全球碳足跡設定了基準，我們將在接下來的幾個月內努力為我們希望進一步改進的關鍵優先事項創建戰略路線圖。我們正在推進這些努力，我們將分享我們的持續進展。

Moving on to the current quarter. We experienced a very noticeable slowdown in traffic and sales in the last few weeks of October, that carried into the first few weeks of November. Not only where we up against last year's early holiday shopping, but warmer weather hampered the start of fall and winter merchandise sales. Sales have improved since, and we are pleased with the results over Black Friday weekend. However, as we consider the remainder of the quarter, we recognized the consumer, pressured by inflation, is having to make harder choices on where they spend their money.

轉到當前季度。我們在 10 月的最後幾周經歷了非常明顯的流量和銷售放緩，這種情況一直持續到 11 月的前幾週。不僅我們遇到了去年提早購物的問題，而且溫暖的天氣也阻礙了秋冬商品銷售的開始。此後銷售有所改善，我們對黑色星期五週末的結果感到滿意。然而，當我們考慮本季度的剩餘時間時，我們認識到受到通貨膨脹壓力的消費者不得不在花錢的地方做出更艱難的選擇。

And while we believe our inventories are at appropriate levels, given the heightened promotional environment, we have increased our planned promotional activity at Journeys and elsewhere over the holidays in order to be competitive as consumers search for bargains.

雖然我們相信我們的庫存處於適當的水平，但鑑於促銷環境的加強，我們已經增加了假期期間在 Journeys 和其他地方的計劃促銷活動，以便在消費者尋找便宜貨時保持競爭力。

We're well prepared for the important holiday season with trend-right assortments and exciting marketing campaigns, and our teams will extend every effort to capture consumer demand. The promotional activity we've added should also give sales a boost. That said, the choppiness in traffic and sales, the additional promotions and continued cost pressure we've been experiencing will weigh on results.

我們為重要的假日季節做好了充分準備，推出了符合潮流的產品組合和激動人心的營銷活動，我們的團隊將竭盡全力抓住消費者的需求。我們添加的促銷活動也應該會促進銷售。也就是說，流量和銷售的波動、額外的促銷活動以及我們一直在經歷的持續成本壓力將對結果產生影響。

Taking all this into account, we're adjusting our fourth quarter expectations. Based on this more conservative outlook, we're lowering our full year guidance range to be between $5.50 and $5.90 per share, somewhere close to the middle of the range is where we anticipate the year will come in.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們正在調整我們對第四季度的預期。基於這種更為保守的展望，我們將全年指導範圍下調至每股 5.50 美元至 5.90 美元之間，接近該範圍中間的某個位置是我們預計今年將進入的位置。

This change in outlook is reflective of the current environment. We believe this is a moment in time and the strength of our brands and retail concepts and the strategies we're executing will show their resilience through these challenges. Driving this are the 6 strategic pillars that emphasize continued investment in digital and omnichannel, deepening our consumer insights, driving product innovation and reshaping our cost base.

這種前景的變化反映了當前的環境。我們相信這是一個及時的時刻，我們品牌和零售概念的實力以及我們正在執行的戰略將在這些挑戰中展現出它們的韌性。推動這一點的是 6 個戰略支柱，它們強調對數字和全渠道的持續投資、加深我們的消費者洞察、推動產品創新和重塑我們的成本基礎。

I'd like to highlight some of the actions that were taken to strengthen our business as we move forward through Q4 and into next year. First, despite near-term consumer headwinds, we're excited about our ability to grow sales both online and in store. After absorbing much of the pandemic's digital growth, we'll begin adding to these gains by utilizing our first-party data, the ability to now better personalize marketing and leveraging the new customer growth we've achieved.

我想強調在我們通過第四季度前進並進入明年時為加強我們的業務而採取的一些行動。首先，儘管近期消費者面臨逆風，但我們對我們在網上和實體店增加銷售額的能力感到興奮。在吸收了大流行的大部分數字增長之後，我們將開始通過利用我們的第一方數據來增加這些收益，現在能夠更好地個性化營銷並利用我們已經實現的新客戶增長。

With digital at almost 20% of our retail business and its healthy double-digit profitability, returning to historical levels of double-digit growth contributes meaningfully. Starting with J&M last year, Schuh earlier this year and Journeys' plan for next year, we're in early days of launching our loyalty and affinity programs, which are outperforming expectations driving increases in repurchase frequency and higher average order values for members.

由於數字業務幾乎占我們零售業務的 20%，並且其盈利能力保持健康的兩位數，恢復兩位數增長的歷史水平做出了有意義的貢獻。從去年的 J&M、今年早些時候的 Schuh 和 Journeys 的明年計劃開始，我們正處於推出忠誠度和親和力計劃的早期階段，這些計劃的表現超出預期，推動了會員回購頻率的增加和更高的平均訂單價值。

Going forward, we'll capitalize on the strong recruitment base to excite and engage our loyal customers to induce them to concentrate bigger shares of their wallets with us, creating a tailwind for growth. We also plan to launch new omnichannel services in North America next year, another catalyst for additional growth. We will be adding to our store fleet for the first time in some time opening in strategic places like off-mall locations for Journeys. And finally, the shift in J&M's assortment into casual, apparel and footwear categories, combined with our increased marketing investments and campaigns, will drive our branded platform and J&M to new levels of sales and profits.

展望未來，我們將利用強大的招聘基礎來激發和吸引我們的忠實客戶，以吸引他們將更多的錢包集中在我們身上，從而為增長創造順風。我們還計劃明年在北美推出新的全渠道服務，這是進一步增長的另一個催化劑。我們將在一段時間內首次增加我們的商店車隊，在一些戰略地點開業，比如 Journeys 的商場外地點。最後，J&M 的產品種類向休閒、服裝和鞋類類別的轉變，加上我們增加的營銷投資和活動，將推動我們的品牌平台和 J&M 達到新的銷售和利潤水平。

Second, while we're increasing promotions to meet the competitive environment this holiday season, we believe the promotional environment will begin to normalize next year as industry inventories become more appropriately balanced with consumer demand. Given the substantial declines in marine freight costs and the reduced reliance on air freight to overcome supply chain delays, we also expect to benefit from these lower shipping costs as we sell through inventory purchase this year and alleviate pressure on cost of goods in our branded business.

其次，雖然我們正在增加促銷活動以應對這個假期的競爭環境，但我們相信，隨著行業庫存與消費者需求更加平衡，促銷環境將在明年開始正常化。鑑於海運成本大幅下降以及對空運的依賴減少以克服供應鏈延誤，我們還預計將受益於這些較低的運輸成本，因為我們今年通過庫存採購進行銷售並減輕我們品牌業務的商品成本壓力.

Finally, I'd like to touch on the operating costs that have been weighing on our P&L. We recognized that we must aggressively double down on our ongoing efforts to battle the wage and other cost inflation we're experiencing. The considerable leverage we've been gaining in occupancy and other areas has not been enough to overcome these headwinds. We are committed to addressing our cost base, and we'll have more to share, which Tom will discuss later.

最後，我想談談一直影響我們損益表的運營成本。我們認識到，我們必須積極加倍努力，以應對我們正在經歷的工資和其他成本通脹。我們在入住率和其他領域獲得的相當大的影響力不足以克服這些不利因素。我們致力於解決我們的成本基礎，我們將分享更多內容，Tom 將在稍後討論。

In summary, our businesses are in strong and differentiated strategic positions in the consumer marketplace. We compete in growing and fragmented markets providing a runway for growth and opportunities to take market share. Within our existing consumer segments, we can increase awareness, convert shoppers to buyers, build loyalty and drive repeat purchases. Our business has proven to be resilient during past recessions, and the actions we successfully took during the pandemic provide a road tested playbook. Despite the current environment, our consumer, ultimately, wants new and fresh product and the core fashion brands we carry.

總而言之，我們的業務在消費者市場中處於強大且差異化的戰略地位。我們在不斷增長和分散的市場中競爭，為增長和占領市場份額的機會提供跑道。在我們現有的消費者群體中，我們可以提高知名度，將購物者轉化為買家，建立忠誠度並推動重複購買。事實證明，我們的業務在過去的經濟衰退期間具有彈性，而我們在大流行期間成功採取的行動提供了經過實踐檢驗的劇本。儘管目前的環境如此，但我們的消費者最終還是想要新鮮的產品以及我們提供的核心時尚品牌。

To close, I'd like to acknowledge and thank our terrific people for their outstanding work and diligent efforts throughout this challenging environment. The work you've done has positioned us well for the holiday season, and I look forward to continued success with you as we finish out fiscal '23.

最後，我要感謝我們出色的員工在這個充滿挑戰的環境中所做的出色工作和辛勤努力。你所做的工作讓我們在假期裡做好了準備，我期待著在我們完成 23 財年時與你繼續取得成功。

And I will now turn the call over to Tom.

我現在將把電話轉給湯姆。

Thanks, Mimi. As Mimi said, we were pleased with our results for the quarter. We have solid capabilities to not only navigate the current challenging environment, but also we are confident in the ability of our footwear-focused strategy to drive strong results over time.

謝謝，咪咪。正如 Mimi 所說，我們對本季度的業績感到滿意。我們不僅擁有堅實的能力來應對當前充滿挑戰的環境，而且我們相信我們以鞋類為重點的戰略能夠隨著時間的推移取得強勁的成果。

Consolidated revenue in Q3 was $604 million, up 1% to last year. On a constant currency basis, sales were up 4%, and we had gains in all divisions. Schuh's dollar sales were below last year due to significant foreign exchange pressure from the strengthening dollar. On a comp basis, Journeys' total comps were up 1%, Schuh total comps increased 3% driven by stores and J&M continued its strength versus last year in both stores and digital, with total comps up 20%. Overall, total company comps were up 3% for the quarter, with store comps up 2% and direct comps up 6%.

第三季度的合併收入為 6.04 億美元，比去年增長 1%。在固定匯率的基礎上，銷售額增長了 4%，我們在所有部門都有收益。由於美元走強帶來的巨大外匯壓力，Schuh 的美元銷售額低於去年。在 comp 的基礎上，Journeys 的總收入增長了 1%，Schuh 的總收入在商店的推動下增長了 3%，而 J&M 在商店和數字方面繼續保持與去年相比的強勢，總收入增長了 20%。總體而言，本季度公司總收入增長了 3%，商店收入增長了 2%，直接收入增長了 6%。

We ended the quarter with 30 fewer stores versus a year ago, as we optimize our store footprint and drive productivity in our existing store estate. Digital sales were up almost 75% versus pre-pandemic levels. E-commerce sales accounted for 18% of total retail, which was flat to last year and up from 11% in fiscal year '20. Wholesale was up for both J&M and Licensed Brands, as J&M continues to have success with new product offerings in key accounts.

我們在本季度結束時與一年前相比減少了 30 家門店，因為我們優化了門店足跡並提高了現有門店的生產力。與大流行前的水平相比，數字銷售額增長了近 75%。電子商務銷售額佔零售總額的 18%，與去年持平，高於 20 財年的 11%。 J&M 和特許品牌的批發業務均有所增長，因為 J&M 在主要客戶中繼續通過新產品供應取得成功。

Gross margins were down 50 basis points to last year, but were ahead of our expectations driven by better results for Journeys and J&M. The main driver of the year-over-year change was the return to a more normal promotional environment compared to essentially none last year and increased freight expense.

毛利率比去年下降了 50 個基點，但由於 Journeys 和 J&M 的業績好於我們的預期。同比變化的主要驅動因素是回歸到更正常的促銷環境，而去年基本上沒有，而且運費增加了。

By business, Journeys' gross margin was down 40 basis points. Schuh's gross margin was down 80 basis points, pressured also by greater-than-expected additions to its loyalty program. New members use their sign-up coupons right away, but ultimately, the program should provide long-term growth as we already have seen new members purchase shoes at a greater frequency than non-members. J&M's gross margin was down 160 basis points, driven by freight logistics cost pressures and an unfavorable inventory reserve reversal comparison. And Licensed Brands' gross margin was down 100 basis points, pressured by incremental freight and logistics costs. Altogether, increased freight and logistics costs put approximately 55 basis points or $3.3 million of pressure on overall Q3 gross margin.

按業務劃分，Journeys 的毛利率下降了 40 個基點。 Schuh 的毛利率下降了 80 個基點，這也受到其忠誠度計劃超出預期的壓力。新會員會立即使用他們的註冊優惠券，但最終，該計劃應該會帶來長期增長，因為我們已經看到新會員購買鞋子的頻率高於非會員。 J&M 的毛利率下降了 160 個基點，原因是貨運物流成本壓力和不利的庫存儲備沖銷比較。受運費和物流成本增加的壓力，特許品牌的毛利率下降了 100 個基點。總之，增加的運費和物流成本給第三季度的整體毛利率帶來了大約 55 個基點或 330 萬美元的壓力。

Adjusted SG&A expense was 44.3%, 270 basis points more than last year. It is worth noting that last year we received meaningful onetime COVID rent credits and government relief during the quarter to the tune of $7 million. Without last year's onetime credits, total SG&A deleveraged 150 basis points, driven by marketing, selling and other salary costs and surface freight expense, while occupancy cost declined and leveraged 80 basis points.

調整後的 SG&A 費用為 44.3%，比去年高出 270 個基點。值得注意的是，去年我們在本季度收到了意義重大的一次性 COVID 租金抵免和政府減免，總額達 700 萬美元。沒有去年的一次性信貸，在營銷、銷售和其他工資成本以及地面運費的推動下，總 SG&A 去槓桿化了 150 個基點，而佔用成本下降並槓桿化了 80 個基點。

Regarding wage pressure, the competitive environment and legislated increases in minimum or living wages continue to pressure our store selling salaries and warehouse costs. In addition, the competitive environment for talent, in general, is increasing our other compensation costs, especially for IT talent to drive our initiatives. In summary, deleverage from these expenses more than offset leverage from occupancy and lower performance-based compensation.

關於工資壓力，競爭環境和最低或生活工資的立法增加繼續給我們的商店銷售工資和倉庫成本帶來壓力。此外，總體而言，人才競爭環境正在增加我們的其他薪酬成本，尤其是 IT 人才來推動我們的舉措。總而言之，這些費用的去槓桿作用足以抵消入住率和較低的基於績效的薪酬帶來的槓桿作用。

Rent credit aside, we are achieving great success driving occupancy costs lower. Across the company, for the first 9 months of fiscal '23, we have negotiated 168 lease renewals and achieved a 16% reduction in straight-line rent expense, with a shorter average term of roughly 2.5 years. This is on top of 192 renewals, with a 17% rent reduction last year. With over 48% of our fleet coming up for renewal in the next couple of years, this continues to remain a key opportunity and priority.

除了租金信貸，我們在降低入住成本方面取得了巨大成功。在整個公司，在 23 財年的前 9 個月，我們已經協商了 168 次續租，並實現了 16% 的直線租金支出減少，平均期限較短，約為 2.5 年。這是在 192 次續約的基礎上，去年租金減少了 17%。我們超過 48% 的機隊將在未來幾年內進行更新，這仍然是一個重要的機會和優先事項。

In summary, third quarter adjusted operating income was $26.3 million, a 4.4% operating margin compared to $45.2 million or 7.5% last year and 5% pre-pandemic. Additional freight and logistics costs this year and the significant COVID rent and other credits benefit last year had a major impact, while a more normal markdown environment, marketing investments and the competitive wage pressures for talent drove the remaining impact on these results.

總之，第三季度調整後營業收入為 2630 萬美元，營業利潤率為 4.4%，而去年為 4520 萬美元或 7.5%，大流行前為 5%。今年額外的運費和物流成本以及去年顯著的 COVID 租金和其他信貸收益產生了重大影響，而更正常的降價環境、營銷投資和人才的競爭性工資壓力推動了對這些結果的剩餘影響。

For the quarter, our adjusted non-GAAP tax rate was 19.6%, which compares to 22.7% last year. This all resulted in adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.65 for the quarter, which compares to $2.36 last year and $1.33 in fiscal '20. Our share count is down roughly 15% from pre-pandemic levels.

本季度，我們調整後的非美國通用會計準則稅率為 19.6%，而去年為 22.7%。這一切導致本季度調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.65 美元，而去年為 2.36 美元，20 財年為 1.33 美元。我們的股票數量比大流行前的水平下降了大約 15%。

Turning now to capital allocation and the balance sheet. Our net cash position at the end of Q3 was negative $57 million, a $324 million decrease versus last year. During the past 12 months, our strong cash balances enabled us not only to reinvest in our business for growth, but also to accomplish the formidable task of re-inventory and, at the same time, return significant capital to shareholders.

現在轉向資本配置和資產負債表。我們在第三季度末的淨現金頭寸為負 5700 萬美元，比去年減少了 3.24 億美元。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們強勁的現金餘額使我們不僅能夠對我們的業務進行再投資以實現增長，而且能夠完成重新存貨的艱鉅任務，同時向股東返還大量資本。

In terms of specifics, we purchased roughly $200 million in net inventory and $125 million of our outstanding shares during the past year. While net inventories are up $200 million year-over-year, we believe it's more meaningful to compare this year's inventory levels to pre-pandemic Q3 fiscal '20, since outsized stimulus demand and supply chain limitations resulted in unusually low inventories last year.

具體而言，我們在過去一年購買了大約 2 億美元的淨庫存和 1.25 億美元的流通股。雖然淨庫存同比增加 2 億美元，但我們認為將今年的庫存水平與大流行前的 20 財年第三季度相比更有意義，因為過度的刺激需求和供應鏈限制導致去年庫存異常低。

Inventories in Q3 this year were $563 million, 19% higher than fiscal '20 on a quarterly sales increase of 12%. We are pleased with the quality of this inventory. We'll adjust receipts as necessary going forward, and do not believe we will need to take incremental markdowns to rightsize inventory levels.

今年第三季度的庫存為 5.63 億美元，比 20 財年增長 19%，季度銷售額增長 12%。我們對該庫存的質量感到滿意。我們將在未來根據需要調整收貨，並且認為我們不需要採取增量降價來調整庫存水平。

Over the last year, we repurchased 2.2 million shares or almost 15% of outstanding shares at an average price of $56.28. More recently, for the third quarter, we repurchased $21 million of stock at an average price of $46.01 and now have $34 million remaining on our current authorization. Capital expenditures in Q3 were $11 million and depreciation and amortization was $11 million. We opened 3 stores and closed 11 during the third quarter to end the quarter with 1,404 total stores.

去年，我們以 56.28 美元的平均價格回購了 220 萬股股票或近 15% 的已發行股票。最近，在第三季度，我們以平均 46.01 美元的價格回購了 2100 萬美元的股票，目前我們的授權剩餘 3400 萬美元。第三季度的資本支出為 1100 萬美元，折舊和攤銷為 1100 萬美元。我們在第三季度開設了 3 家門店並關閉了 11 家，本季度末門店總數為 1,404 家。

As a reminder, traditionally, the period between the end of Q3 and through the commencement of the holidays reflects our lowest cash levels of the year as this is the time for our peak working capital requirements. Looking out to the end of the fiscal year, we expect to end the year with ample cash and a balance sheet that remains a strategic asset.

提醒一下，傳統上，從第三季度末到假期開始之間的這段時間反映了我們一年中最低的現金水平，因為這是我們營運資金需求的高峰期。展望本財年末，我們預計年底將擁有充裕的現金和仍然是戰略資產的資產負債表。

Finally, as we have discussed, rising operating costs have significantly pressured our business this year despite our ongoing cost reduction efforts. After leveraging expenses last year, we are facing cost pressures in the current inflationary environment across our business, but particularly, as I mentioned, in areas related to attracting and keeping talent and wages in our stores, distribution centers and corporate center. We must also continue to invest in marketing, data analytics and technology in order to drive sales and advance several strategic growth initiatives.

最後，正如我們所討論的那樣，儘管我們一直在努力降低成本，但今年運營成本的上升給我們的業務帶來了巨大壓力。在去年槓桿支出之後，我們在當前的通貨膨脹環境中面臨著成本壓力，但正如我提到的，尤其是在與我們的商店、配送中心和企業中心吸引和留住人才和工資相關的領域。我們還必須繼續投資於營銷、數據分析和技術，以推動銷售並推進多項戰略增長計劃。

In the recent past, we have implemented effective multiyear cost reduction programs to reshape our cost structure and reinvest for growth. We are looking to thoughtfully identify further cost savings, efficiency and automation opportunities, and we will have more to share when we report our Q4 results.

最近，我們實施了有效的多年成本削減計劃，以重塑我們的成本結構並為增長進行再投資。我們正在審慎地尋找進一步的成本節約、效率和自動化機會，我們將在報告第四季度結果時分享更多信息。

Now turning to guidance. As I said, we are confident in our longer-term strategy, but in the near term, we continue to see the impact inflation is having on consumer discretionary spending. While third quarter sales came in above our projections and the end of November was stronger than the beginning of the month, we think it is prudent to take a more cautious view on Q4 given the current environment.

現在轉向指導。正如我所說，我們對我們的長期戰略充滿信心，但在短期內，我們繼續看到通脹對消費者可自由支配支出的影響。雖然第三季度的銷售額高於我們的預期，而且 11 月底的銷售額強於月初，但我們認為，鑑於當前環境，對第四季度持謹慎態度是明智的。

We now expect full year fiscal year '23 revenue to be 1% to 2% below last year's levels, with the midpoint of the range similar to our prior guidance. Also note that this guidance reflects a roughly $12 million negative foreign currency impact versus our previous guidance.

我們現在預計 23 財年全年收入將比去年水平低 1% 至 2%，範圍的中點與我們之前的指導相似。另請注意，與我們之前的指導相比，該指導反映了大約 1200 萬美元的負面外匯影響。

In addition to a more conservative sales outlook for Q4, we are experiencing increased pressure of gross margins due to the heightened promotional activity and excess inventory in the market, which is forcing us to become more promotional ourselves. As a result, we now expect full year gross margins to be down between 100 and 110 basis points versus last year.

除了對第 4 季度的銷售前景更為保守外，由於促銷活動的加強和市場庫存過剩，我們正面臨著毛利率壓力的增加，這迫使我們自己加大促銷力度。因此，我們現在預計全年毛利率將比去年下降 100 至 110 個基點。

Finally, the takedown in our Q4 sales projection will cause us to deleverage SG&A expenses slightly more than we expected, resulting in deleverage on a full year basis in the range of 100 to 120 basis points versus last year, but still showing improvement over pre-pandemic levels. This all leads to an expected operating margin a little bit above 4% for the fiscal year and EPS ranging from $5.50 to $5.90.

最後，我們第四季度銷售預測的下調將導致我們對 SG&A 費用的去槓桿化程度略高於我們的預期，導致全年去槓桿化與去年相比在 100 至 120 個基點的範圍內，但仍比前一年有所改善大流行水平。這一切導致本財年的預期營業利潤率略高於 4%，每股收益在 5.50 美元至 5.90 美元之間。

Again, somewhere close to the middle of the range is our best expectation of where we will land. Note that this new guidance is based on a weighted average share count of approximately $12.7 million for the full year versus our prior estimate of $12.9 million, reflecting our share repurchase activity during the third quarter, but assumes no additional share repurchases for the fiscal year.

同樣，接近該範圍中間的某個地方是我們對著陸點的最佳預期。請注意，這一新指引基於全年約 1270 萬美元的加權平均股數，而我們之前的估計為 1290 萬美元，反映了我們在第三季度的股票回購活動，但假設本財年沒有額外的股票回購。

Furthermore, we expect some improvement in the tax rate at 25%, down from the prior guidance of 26%. While we acknowledge the challenges facing consumers these days and the headwinds those pose in the near term, we remain excited about the future of our business and the strategy we are driving forward.

此外，我們預計 25% 的稅率會有所改善，低於之前指導的 26%。雖然我們承認消費者如今面臨的挑戰以及這些挑戰在短期內帶來的不利因素，但我們仍然對我們業務的未來和我們正在推動的戰略感到興奮。

Operator, we are now ready to open the call to questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Steve Marotta with CL King.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Steve Marotta 和 CL King。

I wanted to ask you a little bit about consumer buying patterns in the fourth quarter. You mentioned that this year was a typical back-to-school. And being the armchair contrarian that I am, if the fourth quarter is a normal historical holiday shopping pattern and obviously, November then would be difficult based on the compare and with evidence that Black Friday and Cyber Week was a little bit better, is it possible that December could be a little bit better than what people are expecting as well?

我想問你一些關於第四季度消費者購買模式的問題。你提到今年是典型的返校年。作為扶手椅反向投資者，如果第四季度是一個正常的歷史假期購物模式，顯然，根據比較，11 月將很困難，並且有證據表明黑色星期五和網絡週好一點，這可能嗎那個十二月也可能比人們預期的要好一點嗎？

Steve, thanks for your question. And just to talk a bit about the consumer patterns that we've seen and give you some of our thoughts on how we thought about the remaining months in the quarter. Listen, back-to-school was more typical. What we have been seeing is that when there's a reason for the consumer to shop, particularly the Journeys consumer, they turn out and they do shop, and they're conserving cash in between.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的問題。只是談談我們所看到的消費者模式，並就我們如何看待本季度剩餘的幾個月給你一些想法。聽著，返校更典型。我們一直看到的是，當消費者有理由購物時，尤其是 Journeys 消費者，他們會出來購物，並且在這期間節省現金。

There's no question that we believe that the consumer is waiting this year to shop much closer to the holidays, Christmas and Hanukkah are in the same time frame this year. And I will remind you, as you appropriately called out that we were running on fumes after selling out in November, and we had limited receipts in December and January.

毫無疑問，我們相信消費者今年正在等待更接近假期的購物，今年聖誕節和光明節在同一時間段內。我會提醒您，正如您恰當地指出，我們在 11 月銷售一空後已經精疲力竭，而且我們在 12 月和 1 月的收入有限。

And so we will see. I think that we were pleased with the overall performance of -- over Black Friday. We know that we've got a great in-stock inventory position that when the consumer comes out to shop, that we will be able to provide them with the merchandise they're interested in or our sales teams are ready to go and can really make the sales happen when the consumer arrives as we did over Black Friday weekend. But given the choppiness that we have seen, we thought it was just appropriate to be conservative for December and January.

所以我們會看到。我認為我們對黑色星期五的整體表現感到滿意。我們知道我們有一個很好的庫存位置，當消費者出來購物時，我們將能夠為他們提供他們感興趣的商品，或者我們的銷售團隊已經準備好並且可以真正就像我們在黑色星期五週末所做的那樣，在消費者到達時進行銷售。但考慮到我們所看到的波動，我們認為在 12 月和 1 月保持保守是恰當的。

One other thing I would call out for January is that last year, we actually didn't have any product to be able to provide for returns and exchanges. And this year, we will be in a position to do that. Christmas is on Sunday this year, and there should be a good week of selling afterwards. And so we're ready. We've got the inventory. We've got the people, and we will see where we go.

我要為 1 月份指出的另一件事是，去年，我們實際上沒有任何產品能夠提供退貨和換貨服務。而今年，我們將能夠做到這一點。今年聖誕節是星期天，之後應該會有一個不錯的銷售週。所以我們準備好了。我們有庫存。我們已經找到了人，我們會看到我們去哪裡。

That's very helpful. When we think a little bit about next year, and I know you're not providing guidance understandably, so -- but can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about next year and planning for next year? There's, obviously, a lot of chatter within the industry that, from a wholesale standpoint, wholesale orders are down pretty significantly year-over-year for the first half, and then we'll see what happens for second half. Are you planning similarly? Do you think it's going to be a tail that you have? And then I have one follow-up as well.

這很有幫助。當我們考慮一下明年時，我知道你沒有提供可以理解的指導，所以 - 但你能談談你對明年的想法和明年的計劃嗎？顯然，業內有很多傳言，從批發的角度來看，上半年批發訂單同比大幅下降，然後我們將看看下半年會發生什麼。你有類似的打算嗎？你認為它會成為你的尾巴嗎？然後我也有一個後續行動。

Sure. So the way we're thinking about it is, right now, there is a large amount of inventory in the system, and we are seeing a lot of promotional activity. And therefore, everyone is pulling back on receipts and trying to work through the inventory that's in the system. And so we do think that, that will continue somewhat in the patterns -- into the patterns of next year.

當然。所以我們的想法是，現在系統中有大量庫存，我們看到很多促銷活動。因此，每個人都在收回收據，並試圖處理系統中的庫存。因此，我們確實認為，這將在一定程度上延續到明年的模式中。

But overall, as we are thinking about our ability to grow sales, both online and in stores, which is a very large part of our business, growth will be really important for us. We have an opportunity to convert consumers who are aware of Journeys that aren't buyers. With digital at almost 20% of our business, we plan to drive digital with its healthy double-digit profitability returning to historical levels of growth will really drive our business.

但總的來說，當我們考慮增加在線和商店銷售額的能力時，這是我們業務的很大一部分，增長對我們來說非常重要。我們有機會將了解 Journeys 的消費者轉變為非購買者。由於數字業務占我們業務的近 20%，我們計劃推動數字業務，其健康的兩位數盈利能力恢復到歷史增長水平，這將真正推動我們的業務發展。

We're in early innings for loyalty. We talked a little bit about the success we're having with Schuh and with the J&M loyalty program, and so we're introducing loyalty for Journeys next year. We will have a little bit of growth in our store base. And right now, our Johnston & Murphy business is really doing well with continued growth in casual, apparel and our footwear categories.

我們處於忠誠度的早期階段。我們談到了我們與 Schuh 和 J&M 忠誠度計劃所取得的成功，因此我們明年將推出 Journeys 忠誠度。我們的門店數量將有所增長。現在，我們的 Johnston & Murphy 業務確實做得很好，休閒、服裝和鞋類類別持續增長。

So we're really planning to drive growth next year, and that will be a key overall. We do a lot of business in back-to-school and holiday. And so that will be a time when some of the cost pressures from additional freight expense and some of the pressures that we've been seeing ought to abate. And so it's going to be a real focus in the front part of the year, and then real opportunity during back-to-school and Christmas.

所以我們真的計劃明年推動增長，這將是一個關鍵的整體。我們在返校和假期做很多生意。因此，屆時來自額外運費的一些成本壓力和我們已經看到的一些壓力應該會減輕。因此，這將成為今年年初的真正焦點，然後是返校和聖誕節期間的真正機會。

That's very helpful as well. And Tom alluded to potential realignment from an expense standpoint. Can you talk a little bit about -- I know you probably don't want to get into magnitude at the moment, but the impact -- when could it have the impact? Could it be rather immediate? Is this going to be multiyear? Is it something that could move the needle next year? Maybe just talk a little bit about it again without providing any sort of detail that you're not -- you can't do right now?

這也很有幫助。湯姆從費用的角度提到了潛在的調整。你能談談——我知道你現在可能不想談規模，但影響——它什麼時候會產生影響？可以更直接嗎？這會是多年嗎？它會在明年改變局面嗎？也許只是再談談它而不提供任何你不是的細節 - 你現在不能做？

We have a really good track record of reducing costs. I'll hand it to Tom in a minute. Most recently, during the pandemic, we cut costs dramatically and quickly when we had to do that. Rent is our big expense. We've had a multiyear effort with a lot of success year after year of reducing our overall rent expense and selling salaries really have been a journey.

我們在降低成本方面有著非常好的記錄。我馬上就交給湯姆。最近，在大流行期間，當我們不得不這樣做時，我們大幅而迅速地削減了成本。房租是我們的大筆開支。我們經過多年的努力，年復一年地減少了我們的整體租金支出，並取得了很大的成功，這確實是一段旅程。

We've done a lot to use analytics and data to be able to put -- to create efficiency really and put the right ratio of our store people to customers and drive efficiency that way. And so we think there will be opportunity there that we'll get into. And so I think we've got a great track record, and we will, certainly, get after the cost pressure that we've been seeing.

我們已經做了很多工作來使用分析和數據來真正創造效率，並將我們的商店人員與客戶的正確比例放在一起，並以這種方式提高效率。因此，我們認為我們將有機會進入。因此，我認為我們擁有良好的業績記錄，而且我們肯定會解決我們一直看到的成本壓力。

Yes, Steve, let me reinforce that. We do have a good record of reducing cost in the company. We've got good discipline around that. We've been looking at this closely with this tsunami, so to speak, of inflation that hit us and especially around talent retention, being able to attract and retain talent. We've got increased cost in our DCs on an hourly basis, increased costs in our selling salaries in the store, increased IT costs to be able to execute on the digital initiatives.

是的，史蒂夫，讓我強調一下。我們在降低公司成本方面確實有良好的記錄。我們對此有很好的紀律。我們一直在密切關注這場海嘯，可以說，通貨膨脹打擊了我們，尤其是在人才保留方面，能夠吸引和留住人才。我們的 DC 每小時成本增加，商店銷售工資成本增加，IT 成本增加，以便能夠執行數字計劃。

But we feel good we're going to be able to identify some cost and be able to take some cost out of the business going forward. And let us get through holiday here and spend some more time with it when we report our fourth quarter earnings, we'll be able to give everybody some more detail around the order of magnitude and the cadence.

但我們感覺很好，我們將能夠確定一些成本，並能夠從未來的業務中減少一些成本。讓我們在這裡度過假期，並在我們報告第四季度收益時花更多時間，我們將能夠為每個人提供更多關於數量級和節奏的細節。

Our next question is from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

I've got 3 as well, I'll just do them one by one. So first question is really a follow-up to Steve's first question. It sounds like November was tough, although you're not giving us a number. So I guess my question is, does the Q4 implied kind of Q4 sales outlook assume sequential improvement over the balance of the quarter as you lap easier comparisons? Or are you basically kind of taking where you are for November and extrapolating that over the balance of the quarter?

我也有3個，我會一個一個地做。所以第一個問題實際上是史蒂夫第一個問題的後續問題。聽起來 11 月很艱難，儘管您沒有給我們一個數字。所以我想我的問題是，當您進行更簡單的比較時，第四季度隱含的第四季度銷售前景是否假設季度餘額的連續改善？或者你基本上是在考慮 11 月份的情況，並根據該季度的餘額進行推斷？

Yes. So I will let Tom talk a little bit about that. But Mitch, we clearly see, again, that when there is a reason to shop that, that Journeys consumer comes out. And so again, we are optimistic. We saw that happen during back-to-school. We had tremendous results in August when there was a reason to shop. We had very good solid results when there was a reason to shop over Black Friday weekend.

是的。所以我會讓湯姆談談這個。但是米奇，我們再次清楚地看到，當有理由購買時，Journeys 消費者就會出現。因此，我們再次感到樂觀。我們在返校期間看到了這種情況。我們在八月份有理由購物時取得了巨大的成果。當有理由在黑色星期五週末購物時，我們取得了非常好的穩固結果。

And so we are looking, again, we believe that Christmas and the holidays will be more back-end loaded. What we have done is we've taken the trend in the back part of November with the pickup in the back part of November, and we've actually been more conservative than what that trend was running just given some of the choppiness.

因此，我們再次期待，我們相信聖誕節和假期的後端負載會更多。我們所做的是，我們採用了 11 月下旬的趨勢，並在 11 月下旬開始回升，實際上我們比該趨勢的運行更加保守，只是考慮到一些波動。

I did highlight with Steve's question that we think there's opportunity for Christmas week. There's an extra day of selling. We do think there's opportunity after into January as well, with a good and soft inventory position, we ought to be able to drive sales.

我確實在史蒂夫的問題中強調了我們認為聖誕節周有機會。有一個額外的銷售日。我們確實認為進入 1 月份後也有機會，憑藉良好而疲軟的庫存狀況，我們應該能夠推動銷售。

Yes. I think, Mitch, I'll just add to that. We did see the back half of November, including Black Friday. We saw some better -- some improvement in our business, but with a good -- roughly 2/3 of the business to go in the quarter, we think it's still -- we should be more cautious with that much business to go. So we've been more cautious on the trend going forward.

是的。我想，米奇，我會補充一點。我們確實看到了 11 月下旬，包括黑色星期五。我們看到了一些更好的 - 我們的業務有所改善，但是本季度大約有 2/3 的業務要進行，我們認為它仍然 - 我們應該對這麼多業務更加謹慎。因此，我們對未來的趨勢更加謹慎。

Mimi points out some of the differences relative to -- last year relative to pre-pandemic, and we feel that there's opportunity there potentially to outperform that. But it's early, there's a lot of business to deliver here. So we think it's best to take a more cautious view on the balance of the quarter at this point in time.

咪咪指出了去年與大流行前相比的一些差異，我們認為那裡有可能超越這一點。不過時間還早，這裡有很多生意要送。因此，我們認為此時最好對季度餘額採取更謹慎的看法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then a question on the wage inflation, the pressure there. I'm just wondering if you see any potential light at the end of the tunnel there? I mean I don't know that minimum wage rates are going to go down, but maybe if we end up in a slightly less competitive labor market, could that potentially help that situation? And then I have one last question.

好的。這很有幫助。然後是關於工資通脹的問題，那裡的壓力。我只是想知道你是否在隧道盡頭看到任何潛在的光？我的意思是我不知道最低工資率會下降，但也許如果我們最終進入一個競爭略微缺乏競爭力的勞動力市場，這可能有助於這種情況嗎？然後我有最後一個問題。

On wages, we have been really -- I think that the biggest pressure of late has been just competitive pressure. I think we all came out of the pandemic, and we're looking to hire people because our businesses -- to drive our business. And we have seen some good abatement in that overall pressure to bring talent on board in the last few months. And just given where the economy is right now, we think there should be less competitive pressure going forward.

在工資方面，我們真的——我認為最近最大的壓力只是競爭壓力。我認為我們都從大流行中走出來了，我們正在招聘人才，因為我們的業務——來推動我們的業務。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經看到在引進人才方面的總體壓力有所減輕。鑑於目前的經濟狀況，我們認為未來的競爭壓力應該會減少。

But I'll turn that to Tom to add anything else.

但我會把它轉給 Tom 添加其他任何內容。

I think what I'd add is we see opportunities for further automation, both in the stores and in our distribution centers as well. So that can -- obviously, that's going to require some capital. But at the same time, we see that's going to be able to improve some of our operating expense lines going forward.

我想我要補充的是，我們看到了進一步自動化的機會，無論是在商店還是在我們的配送中心。所以這可以 - 顯然，這將需要一些資金。但與此同時，我們看到這將能夠改善我們未來的一些運營費用線。

I mean it's going to take a while to implement that. And I'll give you some more details around that when we do the fourth quarter. But I think there's some light at the end of the tunnel there.

我的意思是實施它需要一段時間。當我們做第四季度時，我會為您提供更多細節。但我認為隧道盡頭有一些曙光。

Okay. And then last question, just on the gross margin. So hopefully, my math is correct, and Tom, correct me if it isn't. But for Q4, I back into a gross margin rate of like 46.5% to 46.9%, which is down a couple of hundred bps year-over-year, but it's actually pretty flattish on a 3-year basis. And I'm wondering, just given how difficult the environment is, I totally get that you would expect more promotions year-over-year.

好的。然後是最後一個問題，關於毛利率。所以希望我的數學是正確的，湯姆，如果不正確，請糾正我。但對於第四季度，我回到了 46.5% 至 46.9% 的毛利率，同比下降了幾百個基點，但實際上在 3 年的基礎上相當持平。而且我想知道，考慮到環境有多麼困難，我完全明白你會期望比去年同期有更多的晉升。

Are you basically thinking that promotional levels are going to be similar to kind of pre-COVID? Or is there a reason to think it would be worse than that? And if so, why wouldn't the kind of the implied Q4 gross margin not be worse?

您是否基本上認為促銷水平會類似於 COVID 之前的那種？還是有理由認為情況會比這更糟？如果是這樣，為什麼隱含的第四季度毛利率不會更糟？

Yes. I think the way you're looking at the gross margin for -- the implied gross margin for Q4 is consistent with what we're thinking about. And we are assuming that the fourth quarter this year will be -- from a promotional perspective, will be similar to the fourth quarter of our fiscal year-end '20.

是的。我認為你看待毛利率的方式——第四季度的隱含毛利率與我們的想法一致。我們假設今年第四季度——從促銷的角度來看，將與我們 20 財年末的第四季度相似。

All right. Thanks, everybody, for joining. I think there are no more questions in the queue, and we look forward to talking with you on our next call.

好的。謝謝大家的加入。我想隊列中沒有其他問題了，我們期待在下次通話中與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。