Genesco Inc (GCO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to Genesco's Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. Just a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Genesco 2023 財年第二季度電話會議。提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音中。

  • I will now turn the call over to Darryl MacQuarrie, Senior Director of FP&A. Please go ahead, sir.

    我現在將把電話轉給 FP&A 高級總監 Darryl MacQuarrie。請繼續,先生。

  • Darryl MacQuarrie;Senior Director of FP&A

    Darryl MacQuarrie;Senior Director of FP&A

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter fiscal 2023 results. Participants on the call expect to make forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the participants' expectations as of today, but actual results could be different. Genesco refers you to this morning's earnings release and the company's SEC filings, including the most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings for some of the factors, including the impact of COVID-19 supply chain issues and the current economic environment that could cause differences from the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements made during the call today. Participants also expect to refer to certain adjusted financial measures during the call.

    大家早上好,感謝您加入我們討論我們的 2023 財年第二季度業績。電話會議的參與者希望做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述反映了參與者截至今天的期望,但實際結果可能會有所不同。 Genesco 建議您參考今天上午的收益發布和該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中的一些因素,包括 COVID-19 供應鏈問題的影響以及可能導致的當前經濟環境與今天電話會議期間所作的前瞻性陳述中所反映的預期的差異。參與者還希望在電話會議期間參考某些調整後的財務措施。

  • All non-GAAP financial measures referred to in the prepared remarks are reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the attachments to this morning's press release and in schedules available on the company's homepage under Investor Relations in the Quarterly Earnings section. I want to remind everyone we have posted a presentation summarizing our results that is accessible on our website.

    準備好的評論中提到的所有非 GAAP 財務措施都與今天上午新聞稿的附件和公司主頁“季度收益”部分的“投資者關係”下的時間表中的 GAAP 對應財務措施進行了核對。我想提醒大家,我們已經發布了一份總結我們結果的演示文稿,可以在我們的網站上訪問。

  • With me on the call today is Mimi Vaughn, Board Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will begin our prepared remarks with an overview of the period and the progress we are making on our strategic initiatives to drive the business this fiscal year; and Tom George, Chief Financial Officer, who will review the quarterly financials in more detail and provide guidance for fiscal '23.

    今天與我通話的是董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Mimi Vaughn,他將在我們準備好的講話開始時概述該時期以及我們在本財年推動業務的戰略舉措方面取得的進展;和首席財務官湯姆喬治,他將更詳細地審查季度財務數據並為 23 財年提供指導。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mimi.

    現在我想把電話轉給咪咪。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Darryl. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. After last year's record fiscal '22 results, we are pleased with our second quarter performance, our strong first half of this year and the longer-term direction of our business. Following a stimulus-induced spending environment in which consumers had ample disposable income to drive strong sales gains that significantly benefited the first half of last year, we are pleased we continue to drive our business forward and maintain the large majority of those gains. Our footwear-focused strategy is working and has created a much more resilient and fundamentally stronger business. The work we have done over the last few years to increase our digital penetration, strengthen our consumer connections, grow our footwear brands and reduce and reshape our retail cost structure has put the company in a better position to both outperform and favorable economic backdrops and successfully navigate more difficult market conditions like we are facing today.

    謝謝,達里爾。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們。在去年創紀錄的 22 財年業績之後,我們對第二季度的業績、今年上半年的強勁表現以及我們業務的長期方向感到滿意。在刺激引發的消費環境中,消費者擁有充足的可支配收入來推動強勁的銷售增長,這極大地受益於去年上半年,我們很高興我們繼續推動我們的業務向前發展並保持大部分收益。我們以鞋類為重點的戰略正在發揮作用,並創造了一個更具彈性和從根本上更強大的業務。在過去幾年中,我們為提高我們的數字化滲透率、加強我們的消費者聯繫、發展我們的鞋類品牌以及降低和重塑我們的零售成本結構所做的工作使公司處於更好的位置,能夠在表現出色和有利的經濟背景下取得成功駕馭我們今天面臨的更困難的市場條件。

  • Our second quarter performance highlights the benefits of our multidivisional business model. stronger-than-expected results at Schuh and Johnston & Murphy helped overcome some softness late in the quarter versus expectations at Journeys due to an increasingly challenging macro environment, which is affecting certain segments of consumers more than others. That said, Journeys year-over-year sales trends improved meaningfully each month in step with an improved inventory position on key brands and styles. This, combined with the strength at Schuh and J&M and careful expense control allowed us to offset the lighter overall sales and deliver adjusted EPS that surpassed our expectations, boosted further by a favorable compensation expense adjustment Tom will discuss later.

    我們第二季度的業績突出了我們多部門業務模式的好處。 Schuh 和 Johnston & Murphy 強於預期的業績幫助克服了本季度末與 Journeys 預期相比的一些疲軟,原因是宏觀環境越來越具有挑戰性,這對某些消費者群體的影響比其他消費者更大。也就是說,Journeys 的同比銷售趨勢每個月都有顯著改善,同時主要品牌和款式的庫存狀況也有所改善。這一點,再加上 Schuh 和 J&M 的實力以及謹慎的費用控制,使我們能夠抵消較輕的整體銷售額,並提供超出我們預期的調整後每股收益,湯姆將在稍後討論的有利的薪酬費用調整進一步推動了這一點。

  • The shoe team did a tremendous job capitalizing on recent product and marketing initiatives, outperforming its competition in the U.K. marketplace, fueled by pent-up demand and a warm summer. At the same time, the reimagining of the J&M brand continues to attract a wider and younger audience at a time when its consumers are returning to life and looking to refresh their wardrobes. And across all our businesses, we have held on to the bulk of the digital gains we drove during the pandemic as we have grown this highly profitable channel. Our progress is especially evident compared to where our business was before the pandemic began.

    鞋履團隊利用最近的產品和營銷舉措,在被壓抑的需求和溫暖的夏季推動下,在英國市場的競爭中表現出色。與此同時,J&M 品牌的重新構想繼續吸引更廣泛和更年輕的受眾,而此時其消費者正在回歸生活並希望更新他們的衣櫥。在我們所有的業務中,隨著我們發展這個高利潤的渠道,我們保持了在大流行期間推動的大部分數字收益。與大流行開始之前我們的業務相比,我們的進步尤其明顯。

  • A few key highlights of the second quarter include compared with the pre-pandemic second quarter of fiscal '20, revenue grew 10% despite having 5% or 80 fewer stores. Digital sales grew more than 75%, now representing 18% of total retail sales compared to 10% in fiscal '20. Our branded wholesale sales increased more than 100% over the same time period, spurred by our acquisition of the Levi's business. Gross margins were in line with our expectations despite an increasingly promotional environment in the U.S. and operating income more than doubled that of fiscal '20, leading to adjusted EPS of $0.59 versus $0.15 in the second quarter of fiscal '20.

    第二季度的幾個主要亮點包括與大流行前的 20 財年第二季度相比,儘管商店減少了 5% 或 80 家,但收入增長了 10%。數字銷售額增長超過 75%,現在佔零售總額的 18%,而 20 財年這一比例為 10%。在我們收購 Levi's 業務的推動下,我們的品牌批發銷售額在同一時期增長了 100% 以上。儘管美國的促銷環境越來越好,但毛利率仍符合我們的預期,營業收入是 20 財年的兩倍多,調整後的每股收益為 0.59 美元,而 20 財年第二季度為 0.15 美元。

  • And in addition, our business accelerated throughout the quarter with sequential monthly improvement in retail sales compared to a year ago as we float in fresh products and accomplished the significant task of re-inventorying and stimulus compares begin to ease. And while at the same time, investing in our business, we returned a notable amount of capital to shareholders, opportunistically repurchasing $45 million of stock during the quarter, representing about 6% of shares outstanding.

    此外,我們的業務在整個季度加速增長,與一年前相比,零售額環比增長,因為我們在新鮮產品中浮動並完成了重新庫存的重要任務,刺激措施開始緩解。同時,在投資我們的業務的同時,我們向股東返還了大量資本,在本季度機會性地回購了 4500 萬美元的股票,約佔流通股的 6%。

  • Turning now to discuss each business in more detail, beginning with Journeys. While the second quarter started well with May and June benefiting strongly from the good work Journeys merchants have done to reinventory and achieve pre-pandemic inventory levels for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, sales did not further accelerate as much as we expected in July. This trend included the last 2 weeks of the month, which is the beginning of the back-to-school season. Sales have since reaccelerated in August and are nicely up above last year, but we expected an even sharper acceleration given our vastly improved inventory position and a normal back-to-school this year.

    現在轉向更詳細地討論每項業務,從旅程開始。雖然第二季度開局良好,5 月和 6 月受益於 Journeys 商家為重新庫存所做的出色工作,自大流行開始以來首次達到大流行前的庫存水平,但銷售並未像我們預期的那樣進一步加速在七月。這一趨勢包括本月的最後兩週,也就是返校季的開始。此後銷售在 8 月重新加速,並大大高於去年,但鑑於我們的庫存狀況大幅改善以及今年正常的返校,我們預計銷售速度會更加明顯。

  • We are seeing some evidence of the Journeys consumer getting squeezed by inflation, making fewer trips to the mall, waiting for tax-free events to shop, delaying purchases until the time of need and trading down to more affordable price point footwear. The strength of Journeys' vendor relationships and the breadth of its assortment have allowed the team to quickly pivot its current offering to more excessively priced product that aligns with the current more budget-conscious consumer.

    我們看到一些證據表明 Journeys 消費者受到通貨膨脹的擠壓,減少了去購物中心的次數,等待免稅活動購物,將購買推遲到需要的時候,並以更實惠的價格購買鞋類。 Journeys 的供應商關係的實力和產品種類的廣度使團隊能夠迅速將其當前產品轉向價格更高的產品,以適應當前更具預算意識的消費者。

  • While we anticipated stronger store traffic, our motivated store associates have made the most of each customer crossing the lease line, driving improved conversion and higher transaction size helped by higher ASPs as we ended the quarter. I've been describing the current fashion cycle is shifting away from fashion athletic more into casual, which plays into journeys strength and casual continued its ascent in Q2 as a bigger part of the assortment. Although markdown and promotional actions have increased from essentially none last year, clean inventory and more full price selling delivered both better than expected and higher Journeys gross margins compared with pre-pandemic times.

    雖然我們預計商店客流量會增加,但我們積極進取的商店員工充分利用了每位跨越租賃線的客戶,在本季度末更高的 ASP 幫助下推動了轉化率的提高和交易規模的擴大。我一直在描述當前的時尚週期正在從時尚運動轉向休閒,這發揮了旅行的力量,休閒在第二季度繼續上升,成為該系列中更大的一部分。儘管降價和促銷活動從去年基本沒有增加,但與大流行前時期相比,清潔庫存和更全價銷售的表現都好於預期,並且 Journeys 的毛利率更高。

  • Over in the U.K., Schuh's strong second quarter capped a great first half of the business. The U.K. retail market has experienced major disruption during COVID with extended lockdown periods and many retail bankruptcies reshaping the landscape. The Schuh team has made the most of this disruption, utilizing its advanced digital offering to drive online and out-executing when stores were open. Schuh is also reaping the benefits of better products, brand purpose and marketing strategies.

    在英國,Schuh 強勁的第二季度為上半年的業績畫上了圓滿的句號。英國零售市場在 COVID 期間經歷了重大破壞,鎖定期延長,許多零售破產重塑了格局。 Schuh 團隊充分利用了這種中斷,利用其先進的數字產品來推動在線和商店營業時的超額執行。 Schuh 還從更好的產品、品牌宗旨和營銷策略中獲益。

  • Driving this stellar Q2 performance was a better inventory position that included increased access to higher-tiered styles from several key vendors, coupled with pent-up demand as young people enjoyed the warm summer weather and dressed fashionably for summer activities. Schuh sales continue to exceed expectations on both a constant currency and reported basis despite the considerable decline of the pound versus the dollar. Constant currency revenue hit a Q2 record, up 9% compared to last year and up 14% over pre-pandemic sales as strong demand fueled consumer spending despite historic levels of inflation. Operating income also grew adjusting for last year's rent and other COVID credit.

    推動這一出色的第二季度業績的是更好的庫存狀況,其中包括更多地從幾家主要供應商處獲得更高級別的款式,以及隨著年輕人享受溫暖的夏季天氣並為夏季活動穿著時尚而被壓抑的需求。儘管英鎊兌美元大幅下跌,但 Schuh 的銷售額在固定貨幣和報告基礎上均繼續超出預期。固定匯率收入創下第二季度的紀錄,與去年相比增長 9%,比大流行前的銷售額增長 14%,原因是儘管通脹處於歷史水平,但強勁的需求推動了消費者支出。營業收入也根據去年的租金和其他 COVID 信貸進行了調整。

  • Like Journeys, Schuh's strength is its ability to deliver the fashion brands desired by its youth consumer and casual was up as a greater percentage of the mix as well, led by sandal growth and helped by higher prices. Moving on to discuss our brands. We're incredibly excited about the potential of Johnston & Murphy as we reposition the brand for growth. Our efforts to reimagine J&M for a more casual, more comfortable post-pandemic environment is delivering outstanding results, with Q2 sales up 22% compared to last year and operating income more than double pre-pandemic levels.

    與 Journeys 一樣,Schuh 的優勢在於它能夠提供年輕消費者所需的時尚品牌,而休閒品牌的比例也在上升,這得益於涼鞋的增長和更高的價格。繼續討論我們的品牌。隨著我們重新定位品牌以實現增長,我們對 Johnston & Murphy 的潛力感到無比興奮。我們為打造更休閒、更舒適的大流行後環境而重新構想強生公司的努力正在取得出色的成果,第二季度的銷售額與去年相比增長了 22%,營業收入是大流行前水平的兩倍多。

  • Operating income was also up over last year, adjusting for last year's sizable pickup from inventory reserve reversals. Growth stemmed from all channels this quarter with stores up 13% year-over-year, direct up 16% and wholesale up nearly 60%. With return to the office figures well below 50%, the brand is experiencing this growth from a shift in strategy from not just the footwear consumers need for work, but for footwear and apparel, they desire for everyday life, driving market share gains. As a measure of this progress, 9 of the top 10 SKUs in J&M's DTC business in Q2 were casual and casual athletic styles. -- intensified consumer messaging and fresh and continuous streams of new and innovative product with technology differentiating J&M's offering are driving this growth.

    營業收入也比去年有所增長,調整了去年因庫存準備金沖銷而大幅回升的情況。增長源於本季度所有渠道,門店同比增長 13%,直銷增長 16%,批發增長近 60%。隨著重返辦公室的人數遠低於 50%,該品牌正在經歷這種增長,其戰略轉變不僅來自於消費者工作所需的鞋類,還包括他們對日常生活的渴望,從而推動了市場份額的增長。作為衡量這一進展的指標,J&M 第二季度 DTC 業務的前 10 個 SKU 中有 9 個是休閒和休閒運動風格。 ——強化的消費者信息傳遞以及不斷湧現的新產品和創新產品,以及使 J&M 產品與眾不同的技術,正在推動這一增長。

  • Rounding out our brand review, our licensed brands team has wholly remade this division since the start of the pandemic by adding attractive licenses led by Levi's, acquiring more robust product and sourcing capabilities and diversifying distribution with a focus on more moderate-priced retail channels. This transformation was evident with an operating profit this quarter compared to an operating loss in Q2 of fiscal '20. While its consumer has also been affected by the inflationary environment, and we are currently in the midst of a Levi's distribution repositioning, we see an exciting run for this business going forward. So shifting now to the current quarter.

    為了完善我們的品牌審查,自大流行開始以來,我們的授權品牌團隊通過增加由李維斯領導的有吸引力的授權、獲得更強大的產品和採購能力以及以更適中價格的零售渠道為重點的多樣化分銷,徹底改造了這一部門。與 20 財年第二季度的營業虧損相比,本季度的營業利潤明顯體現了這一轉變。雖然它的消費者也受到了通貨膨脹環境的影響,而且我們目前正處於李維斯分銷重新定位的過程中,但我們看到這項業務的未來發展令人興奮。所以現在轉移到當前季度。

  • Back-to-school in the U.S. has delivered positive results so far, and we were pleased to see the pickup in August over July's slower start. However, our expectations for increases for the season and back half over last year for Journeys were even higher at high single-digit growth. Given how low we were on inventory and out of stock on core items throughout the back half of last year, we believe we left significant sales on the table and had planned to capture the upside during this year's back-to-school and holiday season. In addition to the behavior I described for the Journeys customer in reaction to the increasingly difficult macro environment, we are seeing customers come out and shop when there's a reason to buy and retreat to conserve cash during the in-between period.

    到目前為止,美國的返校已經取得了積極的成果,我們很高興看到 8 月的回升超過了 7 月的緩慢開局。然而,我們對旅程在本賽季和去年下半年的增長預期在高個位數增長時甚至更高。考慮到我們去年下半年的庫存和核心商品缺貨的程度有多低,我們相信我們留下了可觀的銷售額,併計劃在今年的返校和假期期間抓住上漲空間。除了我為 Journeys 客戶描述的應對日益困難的宏觀環境的行為外,我們還看到客戶在有理由購買和撤退以在中間時期節省現金時出來購物。

  • Therefore, we're modifying our guidance for the back half in large part to reflect the trends we're currently seeing in Journeys, which, while positive over last year are lower than our original forecast. Both the higher-income J&M consumer and the shoe consumer have exhibited resilience in their shopping appetite backed up by a lift in traffic over last year. We anticipate these patterns will largely persist, although we have tempered expectations to account for the increasingly difficult economy that may impact shoe consumers in the U.K. Our fresh inventory will be a positive, and we believe the strength of our concepts position us well to get more than our fair share of consumer demand, especially when the customer has a reason to shop. We can manage inventory by adjusting receipts as needed and do not believe we will need additional markdowns to keep inventories rightsized.

    因此,我們在很大程度上修改了我們對後半部分的指導,以反映我們目前在 Journeys 中看到的趨勢,雖然與去年相比是積極的,但低於我們最初的預測。高收入的 J&M 消費者和鞋類消費者都表現出對購物胃口的恢復,這得益於去年的客流量增加。我們預計這些模式將在很大程度上持續存在,儘管我們已經降低了對可能影響英國鞋類消費者的日益困難的經濟的預期。我們的新庫存將是積極的,我們相信我們的概念優勢使我們能夠獲得更多比我們公平的消費者需求份額,尤其是當客戶有理由購物時。我們可以通過根據需要調整收據來管理庫存,並且認為我們不需要額外的降價來保持庫存的合理化。

  • Based on this more conservative back half outlook, we now expect adjusted fiscal '23 earnings per share to be between $6.25 and $7. Somewhere close to the middle of the range is where we anticipate the year will come in. We remain confident that our footwear-focused strategy will continue to create value as we navigate this inflationary period and exit from it. Driving this strategy are 6 strategic pillars that emphasize continued investment in digital and omnichannel, deepening our consumer insights, driving product innovation, reshaping our cost base and pursuing synergistic acquisitions, all to transform and meaningfully grow our business. You heard how several initiatives positively impacted second quarter results, and I would like to briefly highlight a few others.

    基於這種更為保守的後半部分前景,我們現在預計調整後的 23 財年每股收益將在 6.25 美元至 7 美元之間。我們預計今年將進入該區間的中間附近。我們仍然相信,我們以鞋類為重點的戰略將在我們度過這個通脹時期並從中退出時繼續創造價值。推動這一戰略的是 6 個戰略支柱,它們強調對數字和全渠道的持續投資、加深我們的消費者洞察、推動產品創新、重塑我們的成本基礎和追求協同收購,所有這些都是為了轉變和有意義地發展我們的業務。您聽說了幾項舉措如何對第二季度業績產生了積極影響,我想簡要強調一些其他舉措。

  • Starting with Pillar 2, maximize the relationship between physical and digital channels. We are advancing Journeys off-mall strategy. This initiative was developed to take advantage of the pronounced shift in traffic to more local, neighborhood, community and power shopping centers. Journeys consumer research also told us its target consumers visit local non-mall shopping centers several times per month and enjoy shopping closer to home.

    從支柱 2 開始,最大化物理和數字渠道之間的關係。我們正在推進 Journeys 的非商城策略。這一舉措旨在利用交通明顯轉移到更多本地、鄰里、社區和大型購物中心的優勢。 Journeys 消費者研究還告訴我們,其目標消費者每月會多次光顧當地的非購物中心購物中心,並享受離家更近的購物體驗。

  • After piloting and analyzing results of some initial locations, we signed more than 25 of these off-mall sites, which are larger than our mall locations and can carry a full assortment of adult and kids product. We opened 5 of these locations so far and plan on opening another 10 by fiscal year-end. Given that Journeys is predominantly mall based, we believe this is a meaningful opportunity. At Schuh, we opened a new distribution center in Ireland to better support omnichannel sales there, which also improves the profits of our Irish operations post prices.

    在對一些初始地點進行試點和分析結果後,我們簽署了超過 25 個這些非商場地點,這些地點比我們的商場地點更大,可以攜帶各種成人和兒童產品。到目前為止,我們開設了 5 個這樣的地點,併計劃在財政年度結束前再開設 10 個。鑑於 Journeys 主要以購物中心為基礎,我們相信這是一個有意義的機會。在 Schuh,我們在愛爾蘭開設了一個新的配送中心,以更好地支持那裡的全渠道銷售,這也提高了我們愛爾蘭業務的定價後利潤。

  • Under Pillar 3, build deeper consumer insights to strengthen customer relationships and brand equity. Schuh is generating positive success with its new loyalty program, the SCHUH CLUB. This program combines online and store purchases together and allows you to deliver increased personalization for an enhanced customer experience by recognizing and rewarding Schuh's most loyal customers. This program has seen greater success than initially expected with just under 750,000 sign-ups since fully launching in April and is now set to exceed the 1 million sign-ups targeted for the year. The ability to now recognize more customers at the point of sale has resulted in data capture doubling since the launch of the SCHUH CLUB, giving us a richer set of first-party data. Total spend for club members accounts for almost 30% of total company sales currently with members making purchases at an average order value 14% higher than the average.

    在支柱 3 下,建立更深入的消費者洞察,以加強客戶關係和品牌資產。 Schuh 通過其新的忠誠度計劃SCHUH CLUB 取得了積極的成功。該計劃將在線和商店購買結合在一起,通過識別和獎勵 Schuh 最忠實的客戶,您可以提供增強的個性化以增強客戶體驗。自 4 月全面啟動以來,該計劃取得了比最初預期更大的成功,註冊人數略低於 750,000,現在將超過今年的 100 萬註冊目標。自 SCHUH CLUB 推出以來,現在在銷售點識別更多客戶的能力導致數據捕獲翻了一番,為我們提供了更豐富的第一方數據集。目前,俱樂部會員的總支出占公司總銷售額的近 30%,會員的平均訂單價值比平均水平高 14%。

  • Johnston & Murphy's insider program launched last year is seeing similar success with 75% of new customers signing up. Journeys is enhancing brand equity by elevating self-expression through the lens of youth culture and has significantly ramped up its collaborations with content creators across social and streaming platforms, resulting in higher engagement and awareness on multiple channels, including TikTok and Instagram. One of the most significant elements of this campaign is a partnership with Carl Jacobs of Mr. Best fame, as Journeys Creative ambassador to activate exclusive content to engage his combined reach of 28 million followers across various social platforms. These activations introduced journeys to Carl's gaming community in a creative and authentic way.

    Johnston & Murphy 去年推出的內幕計劃也取得了類似的成功,有 75% 的新客戶註冊。 Journeys 正在通過青年文化的視角提升自我表達來提升品牌資產,並顯著加強了與跨社交和流媒體平台的內容創作者的合作,從而提高了包括 TikTok 和 Instagram 在內的多個渠道的參與度和知名度。該活動最重要的元素之一是與 Mr. Best 的 Carl Jacobs 合作,作為 Journeys Creative 大使激活獨家內容,以吸引他在各種社交平台上的 2800 萬粉絲。這些活動以創造性和真實的方式向 Carl 的遊戲社區介紹了旅程。

  • In an effort to place Turney's top of mind just before back-to-school, Journeys leveraged its music strategy as the presenting sponsor of the Sad Summer Festival with events in 18 key markets. Journeys increased investment in digital and social are showing gains in brand awareness and intent to shop. Based on its most recent customer research this summer among 13 to 22-year-olds, Journeys remains a top shopping destination significantly outpacing other footwear retailers as more welcoming pool, fun and a place to discover new brands and styles.

    為了在返校前將 Turney 放在首位,Journeys 利用其音樂戰略作為悲傷夏日音樂節的讚助商,在 18 個主要市場舉辦活動。旅程增加了對數字和社交的投資,顯示出品牌知名度和購物意願的提高。根據今年夏天對 13 至 22 歲人群的最新客戶調查,Journeys 仍然是領先的購物目的地,明顯超過其他鞋類零售商,因為它更受歡迎,更有趣,是發現新品牌和新款式的地方。

  • Under Pillar 4 intensified product innovation and trend insight efforts, J&M's product innovation strategy has driven substantial growth in the casual athletic category, doubling its size in the DTC channel to almost 40%, thanks in large part to the Amherst and Activate collection. In fact, the #1 Amherst style sold more than double the pairs as our #1 dress shoe further highlighting that this strategic shift into casual and casual athletic has been dramatic and is resonating with the consumer. In summary, we're making meaningful progress across our businesses and strategic initiatives to be the destination for our consumers' favorite fashion footwear.

    在支柱 4 加強產品創新和趨勢洞察力的努力下,J&M 的產品創新戰略推動了休閒運動品類的大幅增長,其在 DTC 渠道的規模翻了一番,達到近 40%,這在很大程度上要歸功於 Amherst 和 Activate 系列。事實上,#1 Amherst 款式的銷量是我們的#1 正裝鞋的兩倍多,進一步突顯了這種向休閒和休閒運動的戰略轉變是戲劇性的,並引起了消費者的共鳴。總而言之,我們在業務和戰略舉措方面取得了有意義的進展,成為我們消費者最喜歡的時尚鞋履的目的地。

  • Beyond this, we're proud of the progress we've made on ESG. We published an inaugural ESG report on genesco.com, outlining our most recent ESG work policies and metrics. We continue to incorporate ESG as a factor in key operating decisions such as redesigning and reducing shoe box sizes and participating in energy reduction programs at the store level. We're committed to do more and look forward to posting you on future progress.

    除此之外,我們為我們在 ESG 方面取得的進展感到自豪。我們在genesco.com 上發布了首份ESG 報告,概述了我們最新的ESG 工作政策和指標。我們繼續將 ESG 作為關鍵運營決策的一個因素,例如重新設計和減小鞋盒尺寸以及參與商店層面的節能計劃。我們致力於做得更多,並期待向您發布未來的進展。

  • To close now, we as a company are very good at navigating challenges and will manage through this period of high inflation and a pressured consumer, much in the way we managed and emerge from the pandemic a stronger and a more profitable company. At the core of this are our incredible people, and I'd like to thank you for our strong start to the year. Your determination and ingenuity allow us to consistently out-execute through dynamic and choppy environment, and I look forward to continued success with you during the remainder of this year.

    現在結束,作為一家公司,我們非常擅長應對挑戰,並將度過這段高通脹和消費者壓力大的時期,這與我們管理並從大流行中成為一家更強大、更有利可圖的公司的方式非常相似。這其中的核心是我們令人難以置信的員工,我要感謝你們為我們今年的強勁開端。您的決心和獨創性使我們能夠在充滿活力和動蕩的環境中始終如一地超越執行力,我期待在今年餘下的時間裡與您繼續取得成功。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

    我現在把電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Thanks, Mimi. As Mimi discussed, we were pleased with our performance during the quarter, especially our ability to drive profits ahead of expectations in the current climate. We have a solid foundation to not only navigate the current challenging environment, but also we continue to be confident in the ability of our footwear-focused strategy to drive strong results over time.

    謝謝,咪咪。正如 Mimi 所討論的,我們對本季度的表現感到滿意,尤其是在當前環境下我們能夠將利潤提高到超出預期的能力。我們擁有堅實的基礎,不僅可以駕馭當前充滿挑戰的環境,而且我們繼續對我們以鞋類為重點的戰略隨著時間的推移推動強勁業績的能力充滿信心。

  • Consolidated revenue in Q2 was $535 million, down 4% to last year as we continued to anniversary the significant stimulus distributed a year ago, and we experienced foreign exchange pressure from the strengthening dollar. On a constant currency basis, sales were down 1%. As a reminder, Journeys consumer benefited most from the prior year government stimulus. On a comp basis, Journeys' total comp was down 8%, Schuh total comps increased 9% driven by stores. J&M continued its strength versus last year in both stores and digital, with total comps up 17%. Overall, total company comps were down 2% for the quarter, with store comps down 2% and direct comps down 3%.

    第二季度的綜合收入為 5.35 億美元,比去年下降 4%,因為我們繼續紀念一年前發布的重大刺激措施,並且我們經歷了美元走強帶來的外匯壓力。按固定匯率計算,銷售額下降了 1%。提醒一下,Journeys 消費者從上一年的政府刺激計劃中受益最大。在薪酬基礎上,Journeys 的總薪酬下降了 8%,Schuh 的總薪酬在商店的推動下增長了 9%。與去年相比,J&M 在實體店和數字商店繼續保持強勢,總銷售額增長了 17%。總體而言,本季度公司總收入下降 2%,商店收入下降 2%,直接收入下降 3%。

  • We ended the quarter with 27 fewer stores versus a year ago as we optimize our store footprint and drive productivity in our existing store estate. Digital sales, as expected, were down versus last year. However, direct still held on to 95% of its gains on a constant currency basis and was up over 75% versus pre-pandemic on a reported basis. E-commerce sales accounted for 18% of total retail sales versus 19% last year, up from 10% in fiscal year '20. Wholesale was up as strength in J&M offset the decline in licensed brands as we reposition the distribution mix of the Levi's brand to rely less on the value channel.

    在本季度末,我們的門店數量比一年前減少了 27 家,因為我們優化了門店足跡並提高了現有門店的生產力。正如預期的那樣,數字銷售額與去年相比有所下降。然而,直接按固定匯率計算仍保持其 95% 的收益,並且在報告的基礎上與大流行前相比上漲了 75% 以上。電子商務銷售額佔零售總額的 18%,而去年這一比例為 19%,高於 20 財年的 10%。由於我們重新定位 Levi's 品牌的分銷組合以減少對價值渠道的依賴,J&M 的實力抵消了授權品牌的下降,因此批發量上升。

  • Gross margins were down 160 basis points to last year but were in line with our expectations. The main drivers of the year-over-year change from were Journeys and J&M. The expected decline in Journeys margin is due to a return to a more normalized promotional environment as compared to essentially none last year. That said, Journeys gross margin still exceeded pre-pandemic levels. For J&M this year, we experienced increased freight logistics costs as well as a difficult comparison to last year as the commencement of the brand's recovery drove major reductions in inventory reserves.

    毛利率較去年下降 160 個基點,但符合我們的預期。同比變化的主要驅動因素是 Journeys 和 J&M。 Journeys 利潤率的預期下降是由於回歸到更加正常化的促銷環境,而去年基本上沒有。儘管如此,Journeys 的毛利率仍然超過了大流行前的水平。對於 J&M,今年我們經歷了貨運物流成本的增加以及與去年相比的困難,因為品牌復甦的開始推動了庫存儲備的大幅減少。

  • In summary, by business, Journeys gross margin was down 160 basis points. Schuh's gross margin was up 30 basis points, driven by lower e-comm penetration. J&M's gross margin was down 640 basis points, driven by 410 basis points of freight and logistics cost pressure and a 300 basis point unfavorable inventory reserve reversal comparison. And Licensed Brands gross margin was down 40 basis points, driven mainly by sales mix and increased freight and logistics costs. Altogether, increased freight and logistics costs put approximately 75 basis points or $4 million of pressure on Q2 gross margin and were the greatest drag in our branded businesses. Adjusted SG&A expense was 45.6%, which was 30 basis points more than last year.

    總之,按業務劃分,Journeys 毛利率下降了 160 個基點。 Schuh 的毛利率上升了 30 個基點,受電子商務滲透率下降的推動。 J&M 的毛利率下降了 640 個基點,原因是貨運和物流成本壓力下降了 410 個基點,以及 300 個基點的不利庫存儲備逆轉比較。授權品牌毛利率下降 40 個基點,主要受銷售組合以及貨運和物流成本增加的推動。總之,貨運和物流成本的增加給第二季度的毛利率帶來了大約 75 個基點或 400 萬美元的壓力,是我們品牌業務的最大拖累。調整後的 SG&A 費用為 45.6%,比去年增加 30 個基點。

  • It is worth noting that last year, we received significant one-time COVID rent credits and government relief during the quarter to the tune of $8 million, which made this quarter a difficult comparison. Without last year's onetime credits, total SG&A and occupancy expenses leveraged 120 basis points and 40 basis points, respectively. Regarding wage pressure, the competitive environment and legislated increases in minimum or living wages continue to pressure our selling salaries, but we continue to evaluate efficiencies in this area through our workforce management system, time and traffic studies and other automation.

    值得注意的是,去年,我們在本季度獲得了高達 800 萬美元的一次性 COVID 租金抵免和政府減免,這使得本季度難以進行比較。如果沒有去年的一次性信貸,SG&A 和占用費用總額分別增加了 120 個基點和 40 個基點。關於工資壓力,競爭環境和法定最低工資或生活工資的增加繼續給我們的銷售工資帶來壓力,但我們繼續通過我們的勞動力管理系統、時間和交通研究以及其他自動化來評估該領域的效率。

  • In summary, deleverage in occupancy, selling salaries, marketing and other expenses more than offset leverage from lower performance-based compensation and other pickups. As a result of the revised outlook for the back half and the way our performance-based compensation program is designed, we had a reversal of a bonus accrual in Q2 this year that was bigger than our typical adjustments. It is also worth noting that small changes in year-over-year expenses can have a larger impact on our SG&A percentage in the second quarter due to the typically lower sales volumes. Rent credits decide we are achieving great success driving occupancy costs lower.

    總之,入住率、銷售工資、營銷和其他費用的去槓桿化抵消了較低的績效薪酬和其他收益帶來的槓桿作用。由於修改了後半部分的前景以及我們基於績效的薪酬計劃的設計方式,我們在今年第二季度逆轉了比我們通常的調整更大的應計獎金。還值得注意的是,由於銷量通常較低,同比費用的微小變化可能會對我們第二季度的 SG&A 百分比產生更大的影響。租金積分決定了我們在降低入住成本方面取得了巨大的成功。

  • Across the company for the first 6 months of fiscal '23, we have negotiated 115 lease renewals and achieved a 17% reduction in straight-line rent expense with a shorter average term of 2.5 years. This is on top of 192 renewals with a 17% rent reduction last year with over 45% of our fleet coming up for renewal in the next couple of years. This continues to remain a key priority. Good way to measure the benefits of our efforts to reshape our P&L is to compare Q2 adjusted SG&A to pre-pandemic fiscal year '20 versus fiscal year '20, we leveraged total adjusted SG&A by 200 basis points, driven by store occupancy leverage of approximately 300 basis points, which enabled investment to drive our digital business.

    在 23 財年的前 6 個月,我們在整個公司協商了 115 次租約續約,並實現了 17% 的直線租金支出減少,平均期限較短,為 2.5 年。這是在 192 次續租的基礎上,去年租金減少了 17%,我們超過 45% 的機隊將在未來幾年內進行續租。這仍然是一個關鍵優先事項。衡量我們重塑損益表的努力所帶來的好處的好方法是將第二季度調整後的 SG&A 與大流行前的 20 財年和 20 財年進行比較,我們將調整後的 SG&A 總槓桿率提高了 200 個基點,這是由大約300 個基點,使投資能夠推動我們的數字業務。

  • In summary, first quarter adjusted operating income was $10 million, a 1.9% operating margin compared to $21.1 million or 3.8% last year and 1% pre-pandemic. Both additional freight and logistics costs this year and the significant COVID rent and other credits benefit last year that I discussed had a considerable impact on these results. For the quarter, our adjusted non-GAAP tax rate was 19.5%, which compares to 25.1% last year. This all resulted in adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.59 for the quarter, which compares to $1.05 last year and $0.15 in fiscal '20. Our share count is down 11% to last year and roughly 19% from pre-pandemic levels.

    總而言之,第一季度調整後營業收入為 1000 萬美元,營業利潤率為 1.9%,而去年同期為 2110 萬美元或 3.8%,大流行前為 1%。今年額外的貨運和物流成本以及去年我所討論的重大 COVID 租金和其他信貸收益都對這些結果產生了相當大的影響。本季度,我們調整後的非公認會計原則稅率為 19.5%,而去年為 25.1%。這一切導致本季度調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 0.59 美元,而去年為 1.05 美元,20 財年為 0.15 美元。我們的股票數量比去年下降了 11%,比大流行前的水平下降了大約 19%。

  • Turning now to capital allocation and balance sheet. Our net cash position at the end of Q2 was negative $4 million, a $288 million decrease versus last year. During the past 12 months, our strong cash balances and strong cash flow enable us not only to reinvest in our business for growth, but also to accomplish the formidable task of reinventory and at the same time, return significant capital to shareholders. While net inventories are up $150 million year-over-year, we believe it's more meaningful to compare this year's inventory levels to pre-pandemic Q2 fiscal year '20 since outsized stimulus demand and supply chain limitations resulted in unusually low inventories last year.

    現在轉向資本配置和資產負債表。我們在第二季度末的淨現金頭寸為負 400 萬美元,比去年減少了 2.88 億美元。在過去的 12 個月中,我們強勁的現金餘額和強勁的現金流使我們不僅能夠對業務進行再投資以實現增長,而且還能夠完成重新盤點的艱鉅任務,同時向股東返還大量資本。雖然淨庫存同比增加了 1.5 億美元,但我們認為將今年的庫存水平與大流行前的 20 財年第二季度進行比較更有意義,因為過度刺激需求和供應鏈限制導致去年庫存異常低。

  • Inventories in Q2 this year were $507 million, 14% higher than fiscal '20 on a quarterly sales increase of 10%. Part of the increase at Journeys is we elected to receive and carry over some winter product, which was late and arriving as it consists of core in-line styles that will give us a head start on back-to-school and holiday sales. We are pleased with the quality and level of inventory, except for Jan where much of the increases in transit, we are still chasing product.

    今年第二季度的庫存為 5.07 億美元,比 20 財年高出 14%,季度銷售額增長 10%。 Journeys 增加的部分原因是我們選擇接收和攜帶一些冬季產品,這些產品遲到並到達,因為它包含核心在線款式,這將使我們在返校和假期銷售方面領先一步。我們對庫存的質量和水平感到滿意,除了一月份在運輸中的大部分增加外,我們仍在追逐產品。

  • Over the last year, we repurchased 2.3 million shares almost 15% of outstanding shares for $135 million at an average price of $58.86. More recently, for the second quarter, we repurchased $45 million of stock at an average price of $54.99 and now have $55 million remaining on our current authorization. Capital expenditures in Q2, excluding the new headquarters building, were $9 million and depreciation and amortization was $11 million. We opened 4 stores and closed 6 during the second quarter to end the quarter with 1,412 total stores. As a reminder, traditionally, the end of Q2 and during Q3 through the commencement of the holidays reflect our lowest cash levels of the year as this is the time for our peak working capital requirements. Looking out to the end of the fiscal year, we expect to end the year with ample cash and a balance sheet that remains a strategic asset. Now turning to guidance and more specifics as to how we are thinking about the business.

    去年,我們以 58.86 美元的平均價格,以 1.35 億美元的價格回購了 230 萬股,佔流通股近 15%。最近,在第二季度,我們以 54.99 美元的平均價格回購了 4500 萬美元的股票,現在我們目前的授權還剩 5500 萬美元。第二季度的資本支出(不包括新總部大樓)為 900 萬美元,折舊和攤銷為 1100 萬美元。我們在第二季度開設了 4 家門店,關閉了 6 家,截至本季度末,共有 1,412 家門店。提醒一下,傳統上,第二季度末和第三季度期間到假期開始反映了我們一年中最低的現金水平,因為這是我們的營運資金需求高峰期。展望本財年末,我們預計年底將有充足的現金和仍是戰略資產的資產負債表。現在轉向關於我們如何看待業務的指導和更多細節。

  • As I said, we believe we have a solid foundation for growth and are confident in our long-term strategy. In the near term, however, we are seeing the impact inflation is having on consumer discretionary spending. Therefore, we believe it's prudent to take a more conservative approach to our back half outlook and are revising our full year guidance. I'll first talk through the changes in our top line guidance. Our prior annual revenue guidance reflected growth of 1% to 3% over fiscal year '22 or a range of $2.45 billion to $2.49 billion, with the midpoint of the range, the most likely scenario. We now expect full year revenue to be between down 3% and flat compared to fiscal year '22 or a range of approximately $2.35 billion to $2.41 billion, again, with the midpoint of the range, the most likely scenario.

    正如我所說,我們相信我們有堅實的增長基礎,並對我們的長期戰略充滿信心。然而,在短期內,我們看到通脹對非必需消費品支出的影響。因此,我們認為謹慎的做法是對我們的後半期前景採取更保守的態度,並正在修改我們的全年指引。我將首先討論我們頂線指導的變化。我們之前的年度收入指導反映了 22 財年的 1% 至 3% 的增長,即 24.5 億美元至 24.9 億美元的範圍,其中最有可能出現的情況是該範圍的中點。我們現在預計,與 22 財年相比,全年收入將下降 3% 至持平,或在約 23.5 億美元至 24.1 億美元的範圍內,同樣,該範圍的中點是最有可能的情況。

  • Note that full year sales results in both our prior and current guidance are impacted negatively by about 2% due to a strong dollar and lower exchange rate. Going into this year, while we knew we had some difficult comparisons to last year, particularly during the first half due to stimulus, we felt that the back half provided a good opportunity for growth, mainly due to the replenishment of the inventories and having what consumers needed at the key selling periods of back-to-school in the holiday. Driving the projected second-half acceleration with high single-digit growth at Journeys as we believe we left a lot of sales on the table last year due to a lack of key product.

    請注意,由於美元走強和匯率走低,我們之前和當前指導中的全年銷售結果都受到了約 2% 的負面影響。進入今年,雖然我們知道我們與去年相比有些困難,特別是在上半年,由於刺激,我們認為下半年提供了良好的增長機會,主要是由於庫存的補充和有什麼消費者在假期開學的關鍵銷售時段需要。 Journeys 以高個位數增長推動了預計的下半年加速增長,因為我們認為由於缺乏關鍵產品,去年我們留下了很多銷售額。

  • As Mimi outlined, while trends improved throughout the second quarter and the start of back-to-school as the stimulus compares became less pronounced, they didn't reach levels contemplated in our initial projections, which we attribute primarily to the impact on the consumer from inflation. The reduction in our full year sales guidance is coming mainly from Journeys for the reasons we have described. We have also adopted a more conservative outlook for our businesses that serve a more cost conscious consumer and in the U.K. where the consumer is increasingly facing economic headwinds, including higher consumer prices and higher fuel costs.

    正如 Mimi 所概述的那樣,雖然隨著刺激措施的比較,第二季度和返校開始的趨勢有所改善,但它們並沒有達到我們最初預測的水平,我們將其主要歸因於對消費者的影響來自通貨膨脹。由於我們所描述的原因,我們全年銷售指導的減少主要來自旅程。我們還對我們的業務採取了更為保守的展望,這些業務服務於更具成本意識的消費者,而在英國,消費者正面臨越來越多的經濟逆風,包括更高的消費價格和更高的燃料成本。

  • Our gross margin guidance remains unchanged, and we continue to expect gross margins to be down versus last year by 60 to 80 basis points, mainly due to increased markdown activity especially in the quarters in which markdowns typically occur as compared to essentially no markdown in promotional activity last year. At this time, we are not expecting any additional incremental markdowns in total as we expect to align our inventory levels consistent with our reduced sales levels.

    我們的毛利率指引保持不變,我們繼續預計毛利率將比去年下降 60 至 80 個基點,這主要是由於降價活動增加,尤其是在通常發生降價的季度,而促銷活動中基本上沒有降價去年的活動。目前,我們預計總體上不會有任何額外的增量降價,因為我們希望使我們的庫存水平與我們降低的銷售水平保持一致。

  • In terms of expenses, with the decline in our sales outlook, we now expect adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales to delever in the range of 50 to 90 basis points, down from the previous range of leveraging 10 basis points to deleveraging 10 basis points. Regarding overall operating expenses for fiscal year '23. The leverage we gain from reduced performance-based compensation is being offset by anniversarying significant onetime COVID credits selling salary wage pressure and marketing costs. The reduction in our sales forecast makes it more challenging to leverage fixed expenses and increased selling salary cost. However, we are actively managing expenses downward and continue to work to mitigate inflationary pressures and limit the effect on profitability from the lower projected sales volume. This all results in an expected operating margin between 4.7% to 5.1%, which is down from 6.3% in fiscal year '22 and up from 4.5% in fiscal year '20 prior to the pandemic.

    在費用方面,隨著我們銷售前景的下降,我們現在預計調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比將在 50 至 90 個基點的範圍內去槓桿,低於之前的槓桿 10 個基點至去槓桿 10 個基點的範圍.關於'23財年的總體運營費用。我們從減少基於績效的薪酬中獲得的槓桿作用被周年紀念重要的一次性 COVID 信用出售工資工資壓力和營銷成本所抵消。我們銷售預測的下調使得利用固定費用和增加的銷售工資成本更具挑戰性。然而,我們正在積極地向下管理費用,並繼續努力減輕通脹壓力並限制較低的預計銷量對盈利能力的影響。這一切都導致預期營業利潤率在 4.7% 至 5.1% 之間,低於 22 財年的 6.3%,高於大流行前 20 財年的 4.5%。

  • EPS is now expected to range from $6.25 to $7 per share, down from the previous range of $7 to $7.75 per share and compared to $7.62 last year and $4.58 in fiscal year '20. Note that this new guidance is based on a weighted average share count of approximately 12.9 million for the full year versus our prior estimate of 13.4 million, reflecting our share repurchase activity during the second quarter but assumes no additional share repurchases for the fiscal year.

    現在預計每股收益為 6.25 美元至 7 美元,低於之前的每股 7 美元至 7.75 美元,而去年為 7.62 美元,20 財年為 4.58 美元。請注意,這一新指導基於全年加權平均股票數量約為 1290 萬股,而我們之前估計為 1340 萬股,這反映了我們在第二季度的股票回購活動,但假設本財年沒有額外的股票回購。

  • Furthermore, we expect some improvement in the tax rate at 26%, down from the prior guidance of 27%. While we don't provide quarterly guidance, I want to provide some perspective on Q3. We expect Q3 sales to be slightly below last year with gains in our branded businesses, offset by flattish sales at Journeys and pressure on Schuh's top line. We had robust sales in September and October last year at Journeys with a change in pandemic shopping patterns. We are assuming the consumer will revert to historical patterns of lower shopping activity during this time, saving dollars to spend during holiday when we expect sales growth to be consistent with back-to-school growth.

    此外,我們預計稅率將從之前的 27% 下調至 26%。雖然我們不提供季度指導,但我想提供一些關於第三季度的觀點。我們預計第三季度的銷售額將略低於去年,我們的品牌業務有所增長,但被 Journeys 的銷售額持平和 Schuh 的收入壓力所抵消。去年 9 月和 10 月,隨著流行病購物模式的變化,我們在 Journeys 的銷售強勁。我們假設消費者在此期間將恢復到購物活動減少的歷史模式,當我們預計銷售增長與返校增長一致時,可以在假期期間節省開支。

  • Regarding Q3 gross margin, we expect lower gross margins compared to last year, but at about half the levels of Q2's reduction due to higher freight and logistics costs and another difficult inventory reserve comparison last year for J&M. Note that while in total for the year, we do not expect gross margin to change from prior guidance, we do expect a shift with Q3 gross margin under more pressure due to higher freight costs, which is offset in Q4. We expect there will be a fair amount of SG&A deleverage to last year in Q3, driven by lower sales, last year's one-time COVID relief and increased marketing and selling salaries. In the end, from a basis point perspective, we expect the SG&A deleverage to be quite a bit more than the gross margin pressure.

    關於第三季度的毛利率,我們預計毛利率將低於去年,但由於運費和物流成本增加以及去年 J&M 的另一個困難的庫存儲備比較,毛利率約為第二季度下降水平的一半。請注意,雖然總體而言,我們預計毛利率不會與之前的指引相比發生變化,但我們確實預計第三季度的毛利率將因較高的運費成本而承受更大的壓力,這在第四季度被抵消。我們預計,由於銷售額下降、去年的一次性 COVID 救濟以及營銷和銷售工資的增加,去年第三季度的 SG&A 將有相當數量的去槓桿化。最後,從基點的角度來看,我們預計 SG&A 去槓桿將遠遠超過毛利率壓力。

  • With all this, we expect Q3 operating income close to pre-pandemic fiscal year '20 Q3 levels with higher EPS compared with the same period driven by our share repurchase activity. To close, we are pleased with the quarter we just completed. And while we acknowledge the challenges facing consumers these days and the temporary headwinds those might pose, we remain excited about the future of our business and the strategy we are driving forward.

    綜上所述,我們預計第三季度營業收入接近大流行前 20 財年第三季度的水平,與同期相比,我們的股票回購活動推動了更高的每股收益。結束時,我們對剛剛完成的季度感到滿意。雖然我們承認這些天消費者面臨的挑戰以及這些挑戰可能帶來的暫時不利因素,但我們仍然對我們業務的未來和我們正在推動的戰略感到興奮。

  • Operator, we are now ready to open the call to questions.

    接線員,我們現在可以開始提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Steve Marotta with CL King & Associates.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 CL King & Associates 的 Steve Marotta。

  • Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

    Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

  • Tom and Darryl, congratulations on the earnings beat in the second quarter. Mimi can you talk a little bit about the move from fashion athletic towards casual at Journeys, how can you capitalize on this? Do you think that you'll have the inventory associated with this shift in place by holiday? And can you talk a little bit about the ASPs between those 2 silos?

    湯姆和達里爾,祝賀第二季度的收益超出預期。 Mimi 你能談談 Journeys 從時尚運動到休閒的轉變嗎?你如何利用這一點?你認為你會在假期之前將與這種轉變相關的庫存到位嗎?您能談談這兩個孤島之間的 ASP 嗎?

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks for the question, Steve. When you think about Journeys, our skilled merchants place bets on the right product. They have lots of experience. They've made the right fashion calls over the last several cycles. It is a competitive advantage for us. And out of the last few fashion cycles, the last one we came out of is retroathletic into casual and casual just continues -- we continue to see strength on top of strength. Teens always have fashion athletic in their closets. But when it moves to casual, it is beneficial for us.

    謝謝你的問題,史蒂夫。當您想到 Journeys 時,我們熟練的商人會在正確的產品上下注。他們有很多經驗。在過去的幾個週期中,他們做出了正確的時尚呼籲。這對我們來說是一個競爭優勢。在過去的幾個時尚週期中,我們走出的最後一個是複古運動到休閒和休閒仍在繼續——我們繼續看到力量之上的力量。青少年的衣櫥裡總是有時尚運動。但是當它轉向休閒時,它對我們是有益的。

  • We're uniquely positioned to serve the customer here. There is more diversification in teen fashion today. There's a reinterpretation of the 90 trends I've talked about even a little bit of 80s and there are just a number of brands that are popular right now that are being substituted for sandals and other things as we saw through the summer. We do have the inventory in place that we need. We had it for back-to-school. In fact, we have a head start on the holiday inventory because we received some late items last holiday, and we carried them over so that we are ready when holiday sales kick in.

    我們擁有獨特的優勢來為這裡的客戶服務。今天的青少年時尚更加多樣化。對我在 80 年代談論過的 90 種趨勢進行了重新詮釋,正如我們在整個夏天看到的那樣,現在只有一些流行的品牌正在取代涼鞋和其他東西。我們確實有我們需要的庫存。我們有它用於返校。事實上,我們在假期庫存方面處於領先地位,因為我們在上個假期收到了一些遲到的物品,我們將它們帶過來,以便在假期銷售開始時做好準備。

  • We do shift into boots much more so in the back part of the year. The ASP difference between the 2 categories between casual athletic and casual is interestingly not that different because of the mix of boots with some of the other products. And so we have been seeing price increases. I did talk about -- we have been seeing overall ASP increases. I did talk about a shift that we're seeing with Journeys, the Journeys customer into some more accessible price point product but overall, our overall ASPs are still up.

    在今年下半年,我們確實更傾向於穿靴子。有趣的是,休閒運動和休閒這兩個類別之間的 ASP 差異並沒有那麼大,因為靴子與其他一些產品混合在一起。所以我們一直看到價格上漲。我確實談到了——我們一直在看到整體 ASP 的增長。我確實談到了我們在 Journeys 中看到的轉變,Journeys 客戶轉向一些更容易獲得的價格點產品,但總體而言,我們的整體 ASP 仍在上升。

  • Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

    Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

  • That's very helpful. Tom, can you talk a little bit about what total freight incremental freight dollars are expected this year? And I'm curious how much you think that reverts next year to normal. In other words, could all of those disappear, frankly?

    這很有幫助。湯姆,你能談談今年預計的總運費增量貨運美元嗎?我很好奇你認為明年會恢復多少正常。換句話說,坦率地說,所有這些都會消失嗎?

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • For this year, in total, it's interesting. In total for the year, it's about $14 million to $15 million. Relative to last year, it's the same number. It's just sort of sequenced differently. A good amount of that is air freight, and we would expect in future periods, meaning next year and out years that we shouldn't need that same level of air freight. So we should get a benefit in future years on air freight.

    今年,總的來說,這很有趣。今年的總額約為 1400 萬至 1500 萬美元。與去年相比,這個數字是相同的。它只是排序不同。其中很大一部分是空運,我們預計在未來的時期,這意味著明年和未來幾年我們不應該需要同樣水平的空運。因此,我們應該在未來幾年從空運方面受益。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • We're also hoping to see that container costs come down. They have been elevated over historical levels. We're seeing some easing on the pressure, certainly of being able to get product onto shifts, which is positive. And prices leveled out, came down a little bit, still above historical highs. But as the whole supply chain normalizes and consumer demand led off a bit versus last year, those prices should get back down to, we hope, historical level.

    我們也希望看到集裝箱成本下降。它們已經超過了歷史水平。我們看到壓力有所緩解,當然是能夠讓產品輪班,這是積極的。價格趨於平穩,略有下降,仍高於歷史高位。但隨著整個供應鏈正常化,消費者需求與去年相比略有下降,我們希望這些價格應該回落到歷史水平。

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Right. That's a good point.

    正確的。那是個很好的觀點。

  • Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

    Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

  • Sure. I'd like to expand on that actually offline. Mimi, have one other question. I know that you had also alluded to the fact that back-to-school started a little bit later this year than what would normally be anticipated. There have been times, of course, in the last couple of years with lots of gyrations amongst the consumer and when and where they purchase. I know it's maybe impossible to handicap at this moment, but still potentially comment on what are the odds that typically this back-to-school season has a longer tail. In other words, same amount of dollars but simply shifted maybe 2 weeks forward. Sure.

    當然。我想在實際上離線擴展。咪咪,還有一個問題。我知道你還提到了今年返校開始的時間比通常預期的要晚一些。當然,在過去的幾年裡,消費者之間以及他們購買的時間和地點有很多時候。我知道目前可能不可能讓球出現,但仍然可能會評論通常這個返校季節有更長尾巴的可能性有多大。換句話說,相同數量的美元,但只是向前移動了 2 週。當然。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • That's a great question, Steve. We have seen a change in consumer shopping patterns for back-to-school, absolutely over the last couple of years, where it was a very late start where we usually see the back-to-school season last in the last 2 weeks of July into August into the first 2 weeks of September. So 8 weeks altogether. The last couple of years, we really didn't see any activity pick up. In fact, last year, we saw that the whole July/August part of the season was softer than normal, but then we picked up the volume that we didn't see in September and in October.

    這是一個很好的問題,史蒂夫。絕對是在過去的幾年裡,我們已經看到返校的消費者購物模式發生了變化,這是一個非常晚的開始,我們通常看到返校季持續到 7 月的最後兩週到 8 月到 9 月的前 2 週。所以一共8週。在過去的幾年裡,我們真的沒有看到任何活動的增加。事實上,去年,我們看到整個 7 月/ 8 月的部分季節都比正常疲軟,但隨後我們又增加了 9 月和 10 月沒有看到的成交量。

  • And I think last year and the year before were unusual times, I think that parents were waiting to see if kids went back to school, and then when they went back to school, if they would stay in school. So we attribute that to those patterns to what was going on in the last couple of years. However, this year, we're seeing the same dynamic. To be conservative, we have said that in September and October, the consumer will revert to historical shopping patterns. But typically, kids want to wear new shoes back to school. They want to come back and see what their friends are wearing.

    我認為去年和前一年是不尋常的時期,我認為父母在等著看孩子們是否回到學校,然後當他們回到學校時,他們是否會留在學校。因此,我們將這些模式歸因於過去幾年發生的事情。然而,今年,我們看到了同樣的動態。保守地說,我們已經說過,在 9 月和 10 月,消費者將恢復到歷史購物模式。但通常情況下,孩子們想穿新鞋回學校。他們想回來看看他們的朋友穿什麼。

  • We talk a lot about in-the-moment purchases, in-the-moment purchases have gotten to be in the moment at the last moment purchases. And so we would be cautiously optimistic that those trends would carry over into the fall. But for guidance purposes, we haven't built it in. The good news is that August picked up significantly. I mean, we were just really very pleased to see what a big swing we had between the end of July and into August, and that momentum is continuing, and we'll see what happens through the course of the Labor Day weekend.

    我們經常談論即時購買,即時購買已經在最後一刻購買。因此,我們對這些趨勢將延續到秋季持謹慎樂觀的態度。但出於指導目的,我們還沒有內置它。好消息是 8 月顯著回升。我的意思是,我們真的很高興看到我們在 7 月底到 8 月之間發生瞭如此大的波動,而且這種勢頭還在繼續,我們將看看勞動節週末會發生什麼。

  • Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

    Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

  • And I have one follow-up to that. What do you attribute the swing to? Do you think that consumers have reset their expectations for food and fuel? Do you think that because gas has rolled off, there's been that pickup? What do you attribute the delta being between August and July, more on a macro level than a micro level?

    我有一個後續行動。你把搖擺歸因於什麼?您是否認為消費者已經重新設定了他們對食品和燃料的期望?你是否認為因為汽油已經滾下來,所以出現了這種情況?您認為 8 月至 7 月之間的增量是什麼,更多的是宏觀層面而不是微觀層面?

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Interestingly, we saw that back-to-school purchasing early in the cycle for early tech freeze wasn't as strong as when we got closer to school starting. I think more people were taking vacations in the back part of the summer this year. There's a lot of pent-up demand on vacations. I think that consumers were enjoying the summer. And so just really flipped into wow, we've got to go back to school, I think that's a little bit of what has happened. We've seen overall the consumer cycle shift into consumers waiting until the last minute. I think there's just more information out there.

    是的。有趣的是,我們發現在早期技術凍結週期的早期返校購買並不像我們接近開學時那麼強烈。我認為今年夏天的後半段有更多的人在度假。假期有很多被壓抑的需求。我認為消費者正在享受夏天。所以真的變成了哇,我們必須回到學校,我認為這就是發生的一些事情。我們已經看到整個消費者周期轉變為消費者等到最後一分鐘。我認為那裡只有更多信息。

  • It used to be that you go and you shop your shopping venue, shop the mall and other places to see what trends were in style. Well, now you've got that in the palm of your hand, and you can figure that out. You also have a lot more confidence about being able to find the inventory wherever it is. And so that has really pushed just shopping patterns closer to the time of need. This year, especially I think that consumers were distracted and enjoying the summer and that we've seen a pickup certainly a significant pickup in traffic as we've gotten into August.

    過去,你去購物場所、商場和其他地方購物,看看流行的趨勢。好吧,現在你已經掌握了它,你可以弄清楚。您也更有信心在任何地方都能找到庫存。因此,這確實將購物模式推向了更接近需要的時間。今年,尤其是我認為消費者分心並享受夏天,並且我們已經看到了回升,因為我們已經進入了 8 月,這無疑是交通的顯著回升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Corey Tarlowe。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to start talking about Johnson & Murphy given, I think what's very clear is that you've done a tremendous job turning this business around from the start of COVID when everything was locked down and people weren't going to the office and now you've pivoted the business to be more casual, driving what I believe was a record second-quarter revenue for the segment in spite of having fewer stores than prior years, which is incredibly impressive. So can you just talk about what you're doing at that brand that you think is really going to drive sustainable success and growth going forward? And then maybe just touch a little bit on what we can expect from a profitability standpoint as well.

    鑑於我想開始談論強生墨菲,我認為非常清楚的是,從 COVID 開始,當一切都被鎖定,人們不去辦公室時,你已經完成了一項巨大的工作來扭轉這項業務,現在儘管門店數量比往年少,但您已將業務轉向更加休閒,推動了我認為該部門第二季度創紀錄的收入,這令人印象深刻。所以你能談談你在那個品牌上所做的事情,你認為這真的會推動可持續的成功和增長嗎?然後也許只是從盈利的角度談談我們可以期待的東西。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Sure. Thank you for that question, Corey. The J&M customer is in a good place. We are delighted by what we are seeing from the brand right now and have great prospects, great prospects in the future for the brand. What has happened in the most recent time is that the J&M customer got used to comfort working from home. And once you experience comfort, it's hard to go back. The J&M team did really a terrific job during the pandemic, taking advantage of the opportunity to rethink the brand. The pandemic gave us a chance to think about how the brand could be different from a product perspective and also appeal to younger customers.

    當然。謝謝你的問題,科里。 J&M 客戶的處境很好。我們對我們現在從品牌中看到的東西感到高興,並且對這個品牌有很好的前景,未來的前景很好。最近發生的事情是,J&M 的客戶已經習慣了在家工作。一旦你體驗到了舒適,就很難回頭。 J&M 團隊在大流行期間做得非常出色,利用這個機會重新思考品牌。大流行讓我們有機會從產品的角度思考該品牌如何與眾不同,並吸引年輕客戶。

  • And we pivoted harder into casual and comfort. It's really a terrific product. There's great styling with special technical features, proprietary chassis systems, great waterproofing, great moisture wicking, great just comfort features. And after the recession --after the great Recession, a number of years ago, we had a chance to reinvent the brand and we're able to double the size of the brand and think that there is an opportunity to do that again this time around. We have a chance to sell customers things that are not in their wardrobe, things that they need for today's lifestyle.

    我們更加努力地轉向休閒和舒適。這真是一個了不起的產品。具有特殊技術功能的出色造型、專有底盤系統、出色的防水性、出色的吸濕排汗、出色的舒適功能。在經濟衰退之後——在幾年前的大衰退之後,我們有機會重塑品牌,我們能夠將品牌規模擴大一倍,並認為這次有機會再次做到這一點大約。我們有機會向客戶出售他們衣櫥裡沒有的東西,他們今天的生活方式所需要的東西。

  • So they're trading in their dress shoes or their more formal shoes for hybrid product, which is great styling with lots of comfort features. Johnson & Murphy has done such a great job repositioning. Right now we are selling a lot of casual and casual athletic product. I talked about the top styles being casual and casual athletic. In fact, -- we are -- casual and dress casual are more than 90% of the footwear sold today. And so dresses is getting to be a much smaller portion of the overall sales. We've complemented that with additional categories that really round out the lifestyle offering.

    因此,他們將正裝鞋或更正式的鞋子換成混合產品,這種混合產品具有出色的造型和許多舒適功能。強生墨菲在重新定位方面做得非常出色。現在我們正在銷售很多休閒和休閒運動產品。我談到了休閒和休閒運動的頂級款式。事實上,——我們是——休閒和休閒裝是當今銷售的鞋類的 90% 以上。因此,連衣裙在整體銷售額中所佔的比例要小得多。我們還補充了其他類別,這些類別真正完善了生活方式產品。

  • And interestingly, we used to worry about casual just trading down price points from dress footwear, but we have actually seen that we've been able to build in great comfort and technology features and have been able to see higher price points. So we like the profitability profile that we see. We like the potential for increased sales. We're spending a lot in marketing right now to let people know about some of the changes in the brand. We've just done a market research study that says that as much as we think everyone knows about Johnston & Murphy, there's lots more potential for additional consumers. So great prospects going forward.

    有趣的是,我們過去常常擔心休閒鞋會降低價格點,但實際上我們已經看到,我們已經能夠打造出色的舒適性和技術功能,並且能夠看到更高的價格點。所以我們喜歡我們看到的盈利能力。我們喜歡增加銷售額的潛力。我們現在在營銷方面投入了大量資金,讓人們了解品牌的一些變化。我們剛剛完成了一項市場調查研究,該研究表明,儘管我們認為每個人都知道約翰斯頓和墨菲,但對於更多的消費者來說,還有更多的潛力。未來前景如此廣闊。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then just on the profitability expectations for the segment?

    知道了。然後只是對該細分市場的盈利預期?

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. So this year, it's a front half, back half story. We were chasing a lot of products. You saw a great turnaround in sales in really the second and the third quarter. Tom talked about the overall pressure from airfreight, and that's mostly in the Johnston & Murphy segment this year. I think profitability was up in the second quarter over pre-pandemic levels, but less than last year because of some of that airfreight and the inventory reversals. But I would say that we could get back to historical. Johnson Murphy has been as high as double-digit profitability. We went from pretty big losses during the pandemic. We're making good strides this year. And over the longer term, we think there is nothing that would prevent us from getting back to historical levels of operating margins.

    是的。所以今年,這是一個前半部分,後半部分的故事。我們追逐了很多產品。您在第二季度和第三季度看到了銷售額的巨大轉變。湯姆談到了來自空運的整體壓力,這主要是在今年的約翰斯頓和墨菲部門。我認為第二季度的盈利能力高於大流行前的水平,但由於部分空運和庫存逆轉而低於去年。但我想說我們可以回到歷史。約翰遜墨菲的盈利能力一直高達兩位數。在大流行期間,我們遭受了相當大的損失。今年我們取得了長足的進步。從長遠來看,我們認為沒有什麼可以阻止我們恢復到營業利潤率的歷史水平。

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Let me just reiterate what Mimi is saying. I mean, if you look at Johnston & Murphy, where our expectations are for this year relative to pre-pandemic, you'll see that we really expect we'll be -- the sales will be a little bit above pre-pandemic levels, and we have profitability won't be the same as prepaid it because we are investing in marketing for growth here. We've got a good opportunity to continue to grow that brand at a good pace. We've got the distribution infrastructure in place to be able to get further efficiencies from the stores. We really see down the road even more upside and efficiencies on the stores going forward because we sell a lot of apparel as well.

    是的。讓我重申一下咪咪在說什麼。我的意思是,如果你看看約翰斯頓和墨菲,我們對今年的預期相對於大流行前的水平,你會發現我們真的希望我們會——銷售額將略高於大流行前的水平,並且我們的盈利能力不會與預付費用相同,因為我們正在投資營銷以實現增長。我們有很好的機會繼續以良好的速度發展該品牌。我們已經建立了分銷基礎設施,以便能夠從商店獲得進一步的效率。我們真的看到了未來商店的更多優勢和效率,因為我們也銷售大量服裝。

  • And so the stores are a great opportunity for growth. Our digital business, as you've seen, has grown very well. That's double-digit profitability on the margins. So another good thing. And then our wholesale business, again, a good opportunity to get a lot of traction, a lot of good sell-throughs. There's a big wholesale opportunity for Johnston & Murphy going forward. And in the end, we see -- if we continue to invest in marketing and continue to keep the product development machine going with new product, we can really, really grow that brand and take a lot of share in that category and get to even stronger profitability rates than they were pre-pandemic.

    因此,商店是一個很好的增長機會。如您所見,我們的數字業務發展得非常好。這是利潤率上兩位數的盈利能力。所以還有一件好事。然後是我們的批發業務,再次,這是一個獲得很多吸引力的好機會,很多很好的銷售。約翰斯頓和墨菲未來有很大的批發機會。最後,我們看到——如果我們繼續投資於營銷並繼續讓產品開發機器繼續開發新產品,我們可以真正、真正地發展該品牌並在該類別中佔據大量份額並達到平衡比大流行前更高的盈利率。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • That's great. And then just one final one to double-click on a comment that I think Tom you made, you had mentioned that you don't have any expectations for incremental promotions throughout the remainder of this year. I just -- I'm a little confused because I think that stands in contrast to what we've heard from other retailers getting more cautious on promotions. So could you just clarify that and explain that. I want to make sure I heard that properly.

    那太棒了。然後最後一個雙擊我認為湯姆您發表的評論,您曾提到您對今年剩餘時間的增量促銷沒有任何期望。我只是 - 我有點困惑,因為我認為這與我們從其他零售商那裡聽到的對促銷更加謹慎的情況形成鮮明對比。那麼你能否澄清一下並解釋一下。我想確保我聽到正確。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Let me jump in here and then turn it over to Tom. Lots of other retailers right now are just talking about a large amount of inventory in the pipeline. And that is really dictating the need for more promotions. We -- where we sit in the footwear world, especially the parts of the market that we serve are certainly less promotional than apparel. The scarcity in supply, coupled with a robust demand last year, let us see the best full-price selling environment we've ever seen. So we're normalizing versus that for this year. But our brands took the opportunity to rationalize allocations. We live in a highly allocated space, where there's a lot of control and a lot of scarcity of supply in general. We've been chasing product through much of the year.

    讓我跳到這裡然後把它交給湯姆。許多其他零售商現在只是在談論大量庫存在管道中。這確實決定了需要更多促銷活動。我們——我們在鞋類世界中所處的位置,尤其是我們所服務的市場部分,肯定不如服裝促銷。供應稀缺,加上去年強勁的需求,讓我們看到了有史以來最好的全價銷售環境。因此,我們正在對今年進行正常化。但我們的品牌藉此機會合理分配。我們生活在一個高度分配的空間裡,那裡有很多控制權,而且總體上供應很稀缺。這一年的大部分時間裡,我們一直在追逐產品。

  • We were still down 25% at the beginning of the year. So we feel like we've just gotten to the right points of inventory where we're reinventoried properly. And so we are certainly expecting that we'll have more markdowns this year because the consumer was just buying anything that was available last year. We did build back in some promotional activity for just to help spur demand as we usually do this year. But what Tom is saying is that we are not seeing that we are going to have to do even more activity than we had planned in order to rightsize inventories because we feel like our inventories are in good shape.

    今年年初,我們仍然下跌了 25%。所以我們覺得我們剛剛到達了正確的庫存點,我們可以正確地重新盤點。因此,我們當然希望今年會有更多的降價促銷,因為消費者只是在購買去年可用的任何東西。我們確實重建了一些促銷活動,以幫助刺激需求,就像我們今年通常做的那樣。但是湯姆的意思是,我們沒有看到我們將不得不做比我們計劃的更多的活動來調整庫存,因為我們覺得我們的庫存狀況良好。

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes, I would just add to that, even give you some perspective. So really what I was referring to is really no change from the prior guidance on -- in terms of promotional activity and how that may impact margins because when Mimi said, we've got great relationships with all our key suppliers, and we work with them all the time to rightsize inventory. So we can continue to protect those brands and not mark down product. And from a reference point, we certainly have more -- we are planning for some more markdowns this year relative to last year when last year, there was virtually no markdowns, but we're still a lot of learnings from last year. We're still planning markdowns at lower levels than pre-pandemic levels.

    是的,我只想補充一點,甚至給你一些觀點。因此,我所指的實際上與之前的指導沒有任何變化——就促銷活動以及這可能如何影響利潤率而言,因為當 Mimi 說時,我們與所有主要供應商建立了良好的關係,並且我們與他們一直在調整庫存。所以我們可以繼續保護這些品牌而不是降價產品。從參考點來看,我們當然有更多——我們計劃今年相對於去年進行更多的降價,而去年幾乎沒有降價,但我們仍然從去年學到了很多東西。我們仍計劃以低於大流行前水平的降價幅度進行降價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Mitch Kummetz。

  • Mitchel John Kummetz - Senior Analyst

    Mitchel John Kummetz - Senior Analyst

  • Let me start just a question on boots. You talked about carrying over some product. And I know that given supply chain challenges last year, there were a lot of late receipts. So I'm just trying to understand how much better you're positioned in the category this year versus last year. Can you say what boot penetration is for you guys in Journeys like in Q3 and Q4? And again, any way to sort of give us a sense as to how much better you feel about where your inventory is on boots going into the season, the heart of the season this year versus last? And then I have a follow-up.

    讓我開始一個關於靴子的問題。你談到了結轉一些產品。而且我知道,鑑於去年的供應鏈挑戰,有很多延遲收貨。因此,我只是想了解今年與去年相比,您在該類別中的定位要好多少。 Q3 和 Q4 的 Journeys 中,你們能說出靴子的穿透力嗎?再說一次,有什麼方法可以讓我們了解您對進入本賽季的靴子庫存位置的感覺有多好,今年是本賽季的核心,而不是去年?然後我有一個跟進。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Let me talk about last year and then contrast that to where we are this year. So last year, we really hit supply chain challenges announced in the back half of the year. In the back half of the year, we switched, as you know, mitt a boot assortment from more sandal and fashion athletic assortment -- and so last year, we were chasing boot inventory all throughout the year. We were on the back half of the year. We were out of stock in core styles.

    讓我談談去年,然後將其與我們今年的情況進行對比。所以去年,我們真的遇到了下半年宣布的供應鏈挑戰。如您所知,在今年下半年,我們從更多的涼鞋和時尚運動鞋款轉向了靴子品種——所以去年,我們全年都在追逐靴子庫存。我們在下半年。我們的核心款式缺貨。

  • We felt like we left a lot of demand on the table because we didn't have core styles. That was part of the reason that we chose to take that late-arriving inventory and carried over into this year, so we'd be better positioned at the start of the season. So we are in much better inventory position to begin the season. A lot of supply chain issues have worked their way through the system. And so we expect that we'll get continuous flow of product, and we expect that we will be well positioned to meet the demand in this holiday season.

    我們覺得我們在桌面上留下了很多需求,因為我們沒有核心風格。這就是我們選擇將遲到的庫存延續到今年的部分原因,因此我們在賽季開始時會處於更好的位置。因此,我們在本賽季開始時的庫存狀況要好得多。許多供應鏈問題已經通過該系統發揮作用。因此,我們預計我們將獲得持續的產品流量,並且我們預計我們將能夠很好地滿足這個假期的需求。

  • Mitchel John Kummetz - Senior Analyst

    Mitchel John Kummetz - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then my follow-up on the change in the sales guidance, Tom, -- it sounds like the biggest piece is Journeys. I thought I heard a high single-digit number mentioned in your discussion of that. I'm not clear as to like what the Journeys outlook has changed from 2. Was it -- were you thinking high singles and now you're thinking of last? I didn't quite understand where that high singles came in. And also on the FX, I heard a 2% number. And I know that the dollar has strengthened since you guys last reported. And I'm just curious also what your -- did your FX outlook change for the year as the guidance was lowered or was that not changed? And if it was changed, how much did that change by?

    好的。然後我跟進銷售指導的變化,湯姆,聽起來最大的部分是旅程。我想我在你的討論中聽到了一個高個位數的數字。我不清楚 Journeys 的前景與 2 相比有何變化。是不是——你想的是高單曲,現在你想的是最後一個?我不太明白高單曲的來源。而且在 FX 上,我聽到了 2% 的數字。我知道自從你們上次報導以來美元已經走強。我也很好奇你的 - 你的外匯前景隨著指引的降低而改變還是沒有改變?如果它改變了,那改變了多少?

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • Yes. Mitch, on the FX, the outlook for the year, the impact mainly that's obviously a Schuh in the U.K. impact, a little bit of a Canadian impact on the Journeys business. But it really -- from a guidance to guidance perspective, it really didn't change much. We're looking at for the total year impact of FX, about 2% on the total year sales.

    是的。米奇,在外匯方面,今年的前景,主要是英國的舒赫影響,加拿大對旅程業務的影響。但它真的 - 從指導到指導的角度來看,它真的沒有太大變化。我們正在研究外匯對全年總銷售額的影響,約佔全年總銷售額的 2%。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • I'll talk about just the overall expectations for Journeys. So we had expected in our prior outlook, Mitch, high single-digit growth because it links back to what I was talking about, where we felt like we left a lot of boots and other sales on the table in the back part of the year. We are running up during this back-to-school but more in the, I'd say, the mid-single-digit range we're expecting in our forecast that the consumer will revert to historical patterns of not very robust shopping during the back part of September and October, but they will pick up and at about the same levels for the holiday season for Journeys. So we had really ambitious expectations for Journeys. We like what we're seeing, but we have modified our expectations to really align with the actual performance we are achieving.

    我將僅談談對 Journeys 的總體期望。因此,我們在之前的展望中預計,米奇,高個位數增長,因為它與我所說的有關,我們覺得我們在今年下半年留下了很多靴子和其他銷售.我們在返校期間正在加速,但更多的是,我想說的是,在我們的預測中,我們預計消費者將恢復到歷史上不太強勁的購物模式。回到 9 月和 10 月的部分時間,但在 Journeys 的假日季節,它們會有所回升,並處於大致相同的水平。所以我們對 Journeys 抱有非常雄心勃勃的期望。我們喜歡我們所看到的,但我們已經修改了我們的期望,以真正與我們正在實現的實際表現保持一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing comments.

    我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交回管理層以結束評論。

  • Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

    Mimi Eckel Vaughn - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thank you for joining us. I wish everybody a great Labor Day weekend and look forward to talking to you on our next call.

    感謝您加入我們。我祝大家勞動節週末愉快,並期待在下一次電話會議上與您交談。

  • Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

    Thomas A. George - CFO & Senior VP of Finance

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝你。