第一太陽能 (FSLR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025年營收達52億美元,年增24%,EPS為14.21美元,均落在最新財測區間高標;Q4營收17億美元,毛利率40%,較上季提升
    • 2026年新財測:營收49-52億美元,毛利率約49.5%,CapEx預估8-10億美元,調整後EBITDA 26-28億美元
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,未提及盤後股價或同業對比
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 美國本土產能擴張,路易斯安那新廠投產,南卡 finishing 線預計2026年底啟動
      • CuRe技術平台推進,預計2026年起於美國與印度工廠逐步導入,提升產品能量產出與競爭力
      • 持續強化專利與IP保護,近期美國專利局駁回多家外商挑戰,並對TOPCon技術啟動ITC訴訟
      • 政策與貿易環境有利美國本土製造,預期AD/CVD、FEOC等政策將持續壓抑中國系產品
    • 風險:
      • 國際產能(馬來西亞、越南)嚴重閒置,產能利用率僅約20%,造成顯著閒置成本與毛利壓力
      • 印度市場雖需求強勁,但長期面臨本地產能過剩與價格競爭風險
      • 政策與貿易不確定性高,AD/CVD、232條款、FEOC等仍有變數,影響產能調度與價格
      • 部分客戶違約導致解約與去化訂單,雖有違約金收回,但對營運穩定性有潛在影響
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 2025年模組出貨量:17.5GW,年增24%,創歷史新高
    • 2025年新簽訂單:7.4GW,去化訂單8.3GW,全年淨去化0.9GW,期末在手訂單50.1GW(150億美元)
    • Q4毛利率:40%,較上季提升2個百分點,主因美國產能占比提升與45X稅收抵減
    • 2025年毛利率:41%,較去年44%下滑,主因關稅與國際產能閒置
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026年營收預估49-52億美元
    • 2026年毛利率預估約49.5%(含45X稅收抵減)
    • 2026年CapEx預估8-10億美元,主要用於南卡 finishing 線、路易斯安那廠、印度CuRe升級與R&D
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 美國ASP($0.364/W)中加價項目貢獻多少?未來美國ASP展望?
      A: 加價項目約$0.025-$0.03/W,CuRe產品可再略高。未來ASP視政策與貿易催化劑而定,若232、Solar 4等政策持續推進,價格有望進一步提升。
    • Q: 毛利率何時能回到2024年高點(20%+)?主要影響因素?
      A: 若排除45X稅收抵減,2026年核心毛利率約7%,主要受關稅、產能閒置、倉儲成本壓抑。隨著國際產能利用率提升、倉儲費用下降、CuRe技術貢獻,未來有機會回升至20%水準。
    • Q: 亞洲產能(印度、東南亞)2026-2027年產銷規劃?
      A: 印度2026年產量約3GW,主供本地市場,需求強勁且毛利率高。東南亞產能利用率僅約20%,視政策變化保留彈性,部分產能將轉移至美國finishing線。
    • Q: 印度市場長期競爭與價格展望?是否有產能過剩風險?
      A: 印度本地產能雖持續擴張,但First Solar具備垂直整合與技術優勢,預期能維持高毛利。政策逐步要求本地化(模組、電池、未來到wafer),有利公司競爭力。
    • Q: 為何2026年不給EPS指引?
      A: 轉以EBITDA為主因更能反映營運表現,且今年受國際產能閒置、設備搬遷等特殊成本影響,稅務(Pillar 2)亦有不確定性,EPS指引波動大。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon and welcome to First Solar's Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance call. This call is being webcast live on the Investors section of First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's call is being recorded.

    下午好,歡迎參加 First Solar 2025 年第四季及全年財報及 2026 年業績展望電話會議。本次電話會議正在First Solar公司網站投資者關係頁面(investor.firstsolar.com)進行網路直播。 (操作說明)請注意,本次電話會議將會被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Byron Jeffers, Head of Investor Relations.

    現在我將把會議交給主持人,投資者關係主管拜倫·杰弗斯。

  • Byron Jeffers - Vice President, Finance, Treasury and Investor Relations

    Byron Jeffers - Vice President, Finance, Treasury and Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's earnings call. Joining me are our Chief Executive Officer, Mark Widmar, and our Chief Financial Officer, Alex Bradley. During this call, we will review our 2025 results and discuss our outlook for 2026. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions.

    下午好,感謝各位參加今天的財報電話會議。與我一同出席的還有我們的執行長馬克·威德瑪和財務長亞歷克斯·布拉德利。在本次電話會議中,我們將回顧 2025 年的業績,並討論 2026 年的展望。在我們發言完畢後,我們將開放提問環節。

  • Before we begin, please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. We undertake no obligation to update these statements due to new information or future events. For a discussion of factors that could cause these results to differ materially, please refer to today's press release, our SEC filings, and the earnings materials available at investor.firstsolar.com.

    在開始之前,請注意,今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,實際結果可能由於風險和不確定性而與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致這些結果與預期存在重大差異的因素的討論,請參閱今天的新聞稿、我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及投資者網站 investor.firstsolar.com 上提供的收益資料。

  • On this call, we will also reference certain non-GAAP financial information. This non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial information presented in accordance with US GAAP.

    在本次電話會議中,我們也將提及一些非GAAP財務資訊。這些非GAAP財務資訊不應被孤立地看待,也不應被視為替代根據美國GAAP編制的財務資訊。

  • A reconciliation of our non-GAAP items to their respective nearest US GAAP measure can be found in our earnings press release and our earnings presentation.

    有關我們非GAAP專案與其各自最接近的美國GAAP指標的調節表,請參閱我們的獲利新聞稿和獲利簡報。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mark.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給馬克。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. Beginning on slide 4, I will share key highlights and accomplishments from 2025. We entered the year under the new US administration with a back-weighted driven profile that required sustained production to fulfill contracted commitments concentrated in the second half, amid a persistently uncertain policy and trade environment.

    下午好,感謝各位今天蒞臨。從第 4 張投影片開始,我將分享 2025 年的主要亮點和成就。今年年初,美國新政府上台,我們採取了後置驅動型生產模式,需要在下半年持續生產以履行合約承諾,同時還要應對持續不確定的政策和貿易環境。

  • Over the course of the year, we navigated a budgetary reconciliation process, which created the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, evolving tariff scenarios, customer negotiations, and regulatory developments, including Section 232 actions, FEOC restrictions, and AD/CVD investigations that are still unresolved and could ultimately prove to be either headwinds or tailwinds.

    在這一年中,我們經歷了預算協調過程,由此產生了《一項偉大的法案》,不斷變化的關稅方案,客戶談判,以及監管發展,包括第 232 條款行動、聯邦僱員機會委員會 (FEOC) 限制和反傾銷/反補貼調查,這些至今仍未解決,最終可能成為阻礙或助力。

  • Throughout, we remain anchored to a core guiding principle and a key differentiator valued by our customers, contract certainty, both in pricing and in timely delivery. To honor obligations, we maintained sufficient capacity to fulfill international module commitments and actively pursue various contractual productions to address shifting tariff dynamics and, in some cases, contract terminations.

    我們始終堅持一個核心指導原則,這也是我們的客戶非常重視的關鍵差異化優勢:合約確定性,包括價格和及時交付。為了履行義務,我們保持了足夠的產能來履行國際模組承諾,並積極尋求各種合約生產,以應對不斷變化的關稅動態,以及在某些情況下應對合約終止。

  • Given that backdrop, we took a disciplined, selected approach to customer contracting throughout the year. That approach is proving effective. Since our last earnings call, we secured gross bookings of 2.3 gigawatts, excluding domestic India volume and 0.1 gigawatts of low-bin inventory clearance, we booked 1 gigawatt in our key US utility scale market at an ASP of $0.364 per watt inclusive of applicable adjusters.

    有鑑於此背景,我們全年都採取了嚴謹、有選擇地進行客戶合約簽訂的方式。事實證明,這種方法是有效的。自上次財報電話會議以來,我們已獲得 2.3 吉瓦的總訂單,不包括印度國內銷量和 0.1 吉瓦的低庫存清倉,我們在主要的美國公用事業規模市場以每瓦 0.364 美元的平均售價(含適用調整費)預訂了 1 吉瓦。

  • By remaining patient, selective and opportunistic, we capitalized on demand that recognizes the differentiated value of our product and contracting structure, strengthening the forward earnings profile of our backlog, and positioning us to navigate and potentially benefit from ongoing policy and trade uncertainty.

    透過保持耐心、謹慎和把握機會,我們充分利用了市場對我們產品和合約結構差異化價值的認可,增強了我們積壓訂單的預期收益,並使我們能夠應對並可能從持續的政策和貿易不確定性中獲益。

  • We are pleased to have delivered record sales of 17.5 gigawatts of modules in 2025. Net sales of $5.2 billion were at the top end of our most recent guidance range and represented a 24% year-over-year increase. Full-year diluted EPS was within our most recent guidance range at $14.21 per share. We ended the year with $2.9 billion of gross cash and $2.4 billion of net cash coming in above our guidance range.

    我們很高興地宣布,2025 年組件銷售額創下 17.5 吉瓦的紀錄。淨銷售額達 52 億美元,處於我們最近一次預測範圍的上限,年增 24%。全年稀釋後每股收益為 14.21 美元,符合我們最近的預期範圍。我們年底的總現金為 29 億美元,淨現金為 24 億美元,均高於我們先前的預期範圍。

  • Our growth continued in 2025 as we advanced our US capacity expansion, highlighted by initiating commercial production in Louisiana, our fifth US factory.

    2025 年,我們繼續保持成長勢頭,推進了美國產能擴張,其中最引人注目的是在路易斯安那州啟動了商業化生產,這是我們在美國的第五家工廠。

  • In addition, we announced plans to onshore the finishing of Series 6 modules initiated at our international factories by adding US finishing capacity with a new facility in South Carolina. We expect production from this facility to begin in Q4 of 2026 and ran through the first half of 2027.

    此外,我們宣布計劃將國際工廠開始生產的 6 系列模組的精加工工序轉移到美國本土,在南卡羅來納州新建一家工廠,增加美國的精加工產能。我們預計工廠將於 2026 年第四季開始投產,並持續生產至 2027 年上半年。

  • We also advanced our cattail based cure semiconductor platform, following a limited commercial production run from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, we delivered initial CuRe modules to customers in the first half of 2025. Based on laboratory and field testing results, CuRe has demonstrated the expected advantaged energy profile, driven by industry-leading temperature coefficient and long-term degradation rate with improved bifaciality. These results continue to support a disciplined factory-by-factory CuRe conversion rollout expected to begin next month, starting at our Ohio Series 6 factory.

    我們也推進了基於香蒲的固化半導體平台,在 2024 年第四季至 2025 年第一季度進行有限的商業生產後,我們在 2025 年上半年向客戶交付了首批 CuRe 模組。根據實驗室和現場測試結果,CuRe 展現了預期的優勢能量特性,這得益於其行業領先的溫度係數和長期降解率以及改進的雙面性。這些結果繼續支持有條不紊地逐個工廠推出 CuRe 轉換,預計將於下個月開始,首先從我們的俄亥俄州 6 系列工廠開始。

  • In parallel with our cad tel-based CuRe platform, we advanced our next-generation perovskite thin film program. Our focus remains on efficiency, energy attributes, reliability, and a scalable path to high-volume, low-cost manufacturing of this potentially transformational thin film. We launched the perovskite development line at our Perrysburg campus and reach full in-line processing capabilities in Q3, marketing an important step in the lab to fab, transferability, and enabling production of smaller form factor modules using anticipated manufacturing tools and integrated processes.

    在推進以鎘-鈦酸鈣為基礎的CuRe平台的同時,我們也推進了下一代鈣鈦礦薄膜計畫。我們仍然專注於效率、能源特性、可靠性,以及實現這種具有潛在變革意義的薄膜的大量、低成本生產的可擴展途徑。我們在佩里斯堡園區啟動了鈣鈦礦開發生產線,並在第三季度實現了完整的線上加工能力,這是從實驗室到工廠、可轉移性的重要一步,並能夠使用預期的製造工具和整合製程生產較小尺寸的組件。

  • In late 2025, we initiated sourcing for perovskite Series 6 module form factor pilot line, which we expect to reach operational readiness in early 2027. While we made promising progress in 2025, additional work remains before we're broadly scaling our prospect program.

    2025 年末,我們啟動了鈣鈦礦 6 系列組件外形尺寸試點生產線的採購工作,預計生產線將於 2027 年初達到營運準備狀態。雖然我們在 2025 年取得了令人鼓舞的進展,但在我們大規模擴大潛在客戶計畫之前,仍需進行更多工作。

  • Lastly, we continue to actively enforce our intellectual property rights, including our TOPCon patents in the US. Notably in Q4, the US Patent and Trademark Office denied three separate petitions filed by foreign headquartered manufacturers that sought to invalidate aspects of our TOPCon portfolio. This outcome reinforces our confidence in the strength of our patent portfolio.

    最後,我們將繼續積極維護我們的智慧財產權,包括我們在美國擁有的TOPCon專利。值得注意的是,在第四季度,美國專利商標局駁回了三家總部位於外國的製造商提出的、旨在使我們 TOPCon 產品組合的某些方面無效的獨立申請。這項結果增強了我們對自身專利組合實力的信心。

  • I will now turn the call over to Alex to discuss our most recent shipments and booking activities as well as our Q4 and full year 2025 results.

    現在我將把電話交給 Alex,讓他來討論我們最近的出貨量和預訂情況,以及我們 2025 年第四季和全年的業績。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Mark. Beginning on slide 5. As of December 31, 2024, contracted backlog totaled 68.5 gigawatts valued at $20.5 billion or approximately $0.299 per watt. For the full year 2025, we sold 17.5 gigawatts of modules, secured 7.4 gigawatts of gross bookings, and recorded 8.3 gigawatts of de-bookings, primarily due to our termination of contracts as a result of contract breaches by customers, resulting in net full-year de-bookings of 0.9 gigawatts. We ended the year with a contracted backlog of 50.1 gigawatts valued at $15 billion.

    謝謝你,馬克。從第5張投影片開始。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,已簽訂合約的積壓訂單總計 68.5 吉瓦,價值 205 億美元,約合每瓦 0.299 美元。2025 年全年,我們售出了 17.5 吉瓦的組件,獲得了 7.4 吉瓦的總預訂量,並記錄了 8.3 吉瓦的取消預訂量,這主要是由於客戶違反合同導致我們終止了合同,最終導致全年淨取消預訂量為 0.9 吉瓦。年底,我們已簽訂的合約積壓量為 50.1 吉瓦,價值 150 億美元。

  • As a reminder, the contract of backlog reflects the base ASP. A significant portion of our existing contracted backlog includes pricing adjusters that may increase the base ASP contingent on achieving specific milestones within our technology road map and manufacturing replication plan.

    再次提醒,積壓訂單合約反映的是基本平均售價。我們現有合約積壓訂單中有相當一部分包含價格調整條款,這些條款可能會提高基本平均售價,具體取決於我們技術路線圖和製造複製計劃中特定里程碑的實現情況。

  • At year-end, approximately 23.2 gigawatts of contracted volume included in these adjusters, which we estimate could generate up to an additional $0.6 billion or approximately $0.03 per watt, a majority of which will be recognized in 2027, 2028.

    截至年底,這些調整項包含約 23.2 吉瓦的合約容量,我們估計可產生高達 6 億美元的額外收入,或每瓦約 0.03 美元,其中大部分將在 2027 年和 2028 年確認。

  • Turning to the P&L on slide 6. Q4 net sales were $1.7 billion and $0.1 billion increased sequentially. Full year net sales were $5.2 billion, a $1 billion increase year over year, driven primarily by a 24% increase in module volume. Gross margin in Q4 was 40%, an increase from 38% in the prior quarter. The increase was driven by a higher mix of US manufactured modules benefiting from Sector 45X tax credits, lower nonstandard freight charges due to reduced international shipments and the resolution of the glass supply chain disruption experienced in Q3 at our Alabama facility. These benefits were partially offset by ramp-up underutilization cost to Louisiana, a higher proportion of sales into the India market, and the termination amounts recognized in the third quarter related to breach of contracts by affiliates of BP.

    接下來請看第6頁的損益表。第四季淨銷售額為17億美元,季增1億美元。全年淨銷售額為 52 億美元,比上年增長 10 億美元,主要得益於組件銷量成長 24%。第四季毛利率為 40%,高於上一季的 38%。成長的驅動因素包括:美國製造的組件佔比增加,這些組件受益於 45X 行業稅收抵免;由於國際貨運減少,非標準貨運費用降低;以及我們阿拉巴馬州工廠在第三季度遇到的玻璃供應鏈中斷問題得到解決。這些收益部分被路易斯安那州產能利用不足所造成的成本、印度市場銷售額佔比增加以及第三季因 BP 關聯公司違反合約而確認的終止金額所抵銷。

  • Full-year 2025 gross margin was 41%, a decrease from 44% in the prior year. The decline was primarily driven by tariff costs as well as the impact of tariffs exacerbating warehousing expense associated with the back-weighted revenue profile, detention demurrage partially driven by supply-demand imbalances following certain contract terminations due to customer default, and underutilization from the curtailment of our Series 6 international facilities. These headwinds were partially offset by $1.6 billion of Section 45X tax credits recognized in 2025 versus $1 billion in 2024, driven by a higher mix of US manufactured module volumes sold.

    2025 年全年毛利率為 41%,低於前一年的 44%。下降的主要原因是關稅成本,以及關稅加劇了與後加權收入結構相關的倉儲費用,滯期費部分是由於客戶違約導致某些合約終止後供需失衡造成的,以及由於我們 6 系列國際設施縮減而導致的利用率不足。這些不利因素部分被 2025 年確認的 16 億美元第 45X 條款稅收抵免所抵消,而 2024 年的稅收抵免額為 10 億美元,這主要得益於美國製造的組件銷量佔比的提高。

  • As an update on warranty-related matters, we've resolved certain claims and have continued to advance negotiations with additional customers regarding warranty claims for selected Series 7 modules produced prior to 2025. Based on our settlement experience, the estimated number of effective modules and projected remediation costs, we believe a reasonable estimate of the potential future losses will range from approximately $35 million to $75 million.

    關於保固相關事宜的最新進展是,我們已經解決了一些索賠,並繼續與更多客戶就 2025 年之前生產的特定 7 系列模組的保固索賠進行談判。根據我們的和解經驗、有效模組的估計數量和預計的補救成本,我們認為未來潛在損失的合理估計約為 3500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元。

  • Within this range, we've recorded a specific warranty liability of $50 million, representing our best estimate of the expected impacts associated with this issue. We're aware of certain statements, including in recent counterclaim filings by affiliates of BP relating to overall PV plant underperformance. While we will not comment on existing litigation, we do encourage a review of our initial complaint filed last year as well as our answer to those claims in our motion to dismiss filed earlier this month.

    在此範圍內,我們記錄了 5000 萬美元的特定保固責任,這代表了我們對與此問題相關的預期影響的最佳估計。我們注意到一些聲明,包括 BP 關聯公司最近提交的反訴文件中有關光電站整體表現不佳的聲明。雖然我們不會對現有的訴訟發表評論,但我們鼓勵大家查閱我們去年提交的初始訴狀以及我們本月早些時候提交的駁回動議中對這些指控的回應。

  • As it relates to overall PV project output, we would note that solar plant performance relative to expectation is influenced by a broad set of environmental, design, operational, and grid-related factors. These include, but are not limited to, third-party prediction modeling; weather variability; terrain variability; local microclimates; shading and soiling; procurement and design decisions relating to trackers, inverters, transformers, and other plant components; design and construction parameters, including EPC quality, DC and AC system design, construction and handling; and operational factors, including tracker algorithm design and fidelity, open circuit conditions, and overall O&M scope and quality. In short, the solar plant's performance reflects its total environment system design.

    就光電專案整體輸出而言,我們注意到,太陽能電站的性能與預期相比會受到一系列環境、設計、運作和電網相關因素的影響。這些因素包括但不限於:第三方預測模型;天氣變化;地形變化;局部微氣候;遮蔭和污垢;與跟踪器、逆變器、變壓器和其他工廠組件相關的採購和設計決策;設計和施工參數,包括EPC質量、直流和交流系統設計、施工和處理;以及運行因素,包括跟踪器算法設計和保真度、開路條件以及整體運維範圍和質量。簡而言之,太陽能電站的性能反映了其整體環境系統設計。

  • As we've consistently stated, First Solar fully stands behind its module warranty obligations, to the extent the customer has a valid module warranty claim, we remain ready, willing, and able to perform our responsibilities pursuant to the increased stages agreed to in our warranty.

    正如我們一直以來所聲明的,First Solar 完全履行其組件保固義務。只要客戶有有效的組件保固索賠,我們隨時準備、願意並能夠按照保固條款中約定的更高階段履行我們的責任。

  • SG&A, R&D, and production start of expense totaled $117 million in Q4, a decrease of approximately $27 million relative to the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by the reduction of startup costs associated with the Louisiana facility commencing commercial operations. For the full year 2025, operating expenses were $523 million, an increase of $59 million year over year. This includes a $42 million increase in R&D expense, driven by higher depreciation, maintenance and utility costs associated with our research facilities as well as increased headcount and compensation.

    第四季銷售、管理及行政費用、研發費用和生產啟動費用總計 1.17 億美元,比上一季減少了約 2,700 萬美元。下降的主要原因是路易斯安那工廠開始商業運作後啟動成本的降低。2025 年全年營運支出為 5.23 億美元,比前一年增加 5,900 萬美元。這其中包括研發費用增加 4,200 萬美元,原因是與我們的研究設施相關的折舊、維護和公用事業成本增加,以及人員數量和薪資增加。

  • SG&A increased by $15 million, driven primarily by higher allowance for credit losses on aged receivable balances and supplier loans.

    銷售、一般及行政費用增加了 1500 萬美元,主要原因是應收帳款賬齡較長和供應商貸款的信用損失準備金增加。

  • Our fourth-quarter operating income was $548 million, which included depreciation, amortization, and accretion of $141 million; ramping on the utilization costs of $29 million, excluding depreciation and production start-up expense of $1 million; and share-based compensation expense of $3 million.

    我們第四季的營業收入為 5.48 億美元,其中包括折舊、攤提和增值 1.41 億美元;產能利用率提升成本 2,900 萬美元,不包括折舊和生產啟動費用 100 萬美元;以及股份支付費用 300 萬美元。

  • For full year 2025, our operating income was $1.6 billion, which included depreciation, amortization, and accretion of $529 million; ramping on the utilization costs of $14 million; production start-up expense of $86 million; and share-based compensation expense of $19 million.

    2025 年全年,我們的營業收入為 16 億美元,其中包括 5.29 億美元的折舊、攤提和增值;1,400 萬美元的產能利用率提升成本;8,600 萬美元的生產啟動費用;以及 1,900 萬美元的股份支付費用。

  • Interest income, interest expense, other income, and foreign currency losses totaled $3 million in income in Q4 and $16 million of expense for the full year.

    第四季利息收入、利息支出、其他收入和外匯損失總計為 300 萬美元,全年支出為 1,600 萬美元。

  • Income tax expense for the fourth quarter was $30 million compared to a tax expense of $4 million in the third quarter, this quarter-over-quarter increase in tax expense was primarily a function of Q3 benefits, including a $20 million discrete tax benefit associated with the acceptance of a filing position on amended tax returns in a foreign jurisdiction and incremental share-based compensation benefits recorded in the prior quarter. We recorded full-year income tax expense of $53 million.

    第四季所得稅費用為 3,000 萬美元,而第三季所得稅費用為 400 萬美元。這一季度所得稅費用的環比增長主要是由於第三季度的收益,其中包括與接受外國司法管轄區修訂後的納稅申報表的申報立場相關的 2000 萬美元的一次性稅收收益,以及上一季記錄的增量股份支付收益。我們全年提列了 5,300 萬美元的所得稅費用。

  • Q4 earnings per diluted share were $4.84 compared to $4.24 in the previous quarter. For the full year 2025, earnings per diluted share were $14.21 compared to $122 in 2024 and within our guidance range.

    第四季稀釋後每股收益為 4.84 美元,而上一季為 4.24 美元。2025 年全年,稀釋後每股收益為 14.21 美元,而 2024 年為 122 美元,符合我們的預期範圍。

  • Turning to slide 7, I'll cover select balance sheet items and summary cash flow information. The aggregate balance of our cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, restricted cash equivalents, and marketable securities was $2.9 billion at year-end, an increase of $0.8 billion sequentially and $1.1 billion year over year. Both sequential and full year increases in gross cash were driven primarily by proceeds from the sale of Section 45X tax credits generated during the year and positive operating cash flows, partially offset by capital expenditures for our Louisiana facility. We monetized $0.8 billion of 2025 Section 45X tax credits in the fourth quarter of $1.4 billion during the full year.

    接下來請看第 7 張投影片,我將介紹部分資產負債表項目和現金流量總結資訊。截至年末,我們的現金、現金等價物、受限現金、受限現金等價物和有價證券的總餘額為 29 億美元,環比增加 8 億美元,年增 11 億美元。現金總額的環比增長和全年增長主要得益於本年度出售第 45X 條款稅收抵免所得款項和正向經營現金流,部分被路易斯安那州工廠的資本支出所抵消。我們在第四季兌現了 2025 年第 45X 條款稅收抵免額中的 8 億美元,而全年總額為 14 億美元。

  • Notably in January 2026, we also received $118 million for 2024 Section 45X tax credits where we elected a direct pay option in our 2024 tax return filed in October of 2025. The sale transactions highlight the liquidity of the Section 45X tax credit sale market and the IRS refund provides insight into direct pay election turnaround times, providing additional visibility and flexibility to optimize credit monetization and manage overall liquidity. Accounts receivable and inventory decreased both sequentially and relative to the prior year, reflecting improved customer collections and higher volumes sold.

    值得注意的是,在 2026 年 1 月,我們還收到了 1.18 億美元的 2024 年第 45X 條款稅收抵免,因為我們在 2025 年 10 月提交的 2024 年納稅申報表中選擇了直接支付選項。這些銷售交易凸顯了第 45X 條款稅收抵免銷售市場的流動性,而美國國稅局的退款則提供了對直接支付選擇週轉時間的深入了解,從而為優化抵免貨幣化和管理整體流動性提供了額外的可見性和靈活性。應收帳款及庫存較上月及年比均有所下降,反映客戶收款情況改善及銷售量增加。

  • Capital expenditures were $172 million in the fourth quarter compared to $204 million in the third quarter. Full-year 2025 CapEx was $870 million compared to $1.5 billion in 2024. Our year-end net cash position was $2.4 billion, an increase of $0.9 billion from the prior quarter and an increase of $1.2 million from the prior year.

    第四季資本支出為 1.72 億美元,而第三季為 2.04 億美元。2025 年全年資本支出為 8.7 億美元,而 2024 年為 15 億美元。我們年末淨現金部位為 24 億美元,比上一季增加 9 億美元,比上年增加 120 萬美元。

  • I'll now turn the call back to Mark who will provide an update on market conditions, policy, and technology.

    現在我將把電話轉回給馬克,他將介紹市場狀況、政策和技術方面的最新情況。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. Thank you. Turning to slide 8. In 2025, the policy and trade environment remain complex. While we are experiencing significant direct and indirect tariff impacts, in our view, on balance, the environment is net favorable for First Solar, an example of genuine, long-standing, US-based solar manufacturing.

    好的。謝謝。翻到第8張幻燈片。2025年,政策和貿易環境依然複雜。雖然我們正經歷重大的直接和間接關稅影響,但我們認為,總體而言,環境對 First Solar 來說是淨有利的,First Solar 是一個真正歷史悠久的美國本土太陽能製造企業的例子。

  • In contrast, in our view, headwinds beyond reciprocal tariffs and commodity cost increases continue to build for the crystalline silicon industry, a combination of tighter trade enforcement, potential retroactive tariffs, pending Section 232 actions, expanding foreign entities of concerns or fee restrictions, and greater intellectual property enforcement is increasing cost timing and compliance risk for developers relying on crystalline silicon products with ties to China.

    相較之下,我們認為,除了相互關稅和商品成本上漲之外,晶體矽產業還面臨著其他不利因素,例如更嚴格的貿易執法、潛在的追溯性關稅、待決的第 232 條款行動、不斷擴大的外國實體或費用限制,以及更嚴格的智慧財產權執法,這些因素都在增加依賴與中國有聯繫的晶體矽產品的開發者的成本、時間和知識產權。

  • With respect to tray, it is notable that the Trump administration has redrawn its appeal against the US Court of International Trade ruling and the Axon litigation, requiring the retroactive collection of previous suspended AD/CVD tariffs. If this ruling is maintained, which appears increasingly likely, amounting contingent liabilities for AD/CVD duties associated with this unlawful two-year moratorium could represent and as of yet unrealized material financial impact on those foreign producers that relied on it. In fact, one recent industry publication noted that, quote, US Customs is suggesting that no panels that came in during the moratorium qualified for the moratorium.

    關於托盤問題,值得注意的是,川普政府已重新提出針對美國國際貿易法院裁決和 Axon 訴訟的上訴,要求追溯徵收先前暫停徵收的反傾銷/反補貼稅。如果這項裁決得到維持(這種情況似乎越來越有可能發生),那麼與這項非法的兩年暫停令相關的反傾銷/反補貼稅或有負債可能會對依賴該暫停令的外國生產商造成尚未實現的重大財務影響。事實上,最近一份行業出版物指出,「美國海關暗示,在暫停期間進口的任何面板都不符合暫停條件」。

  • In support of true domestic manufacturing, we are encouraged by interim treasury guidance issued earlier this month that, in our view, clearly signaled the administration's intent to address gamesmanship by Chinese-type solar manufacturers seeking to evade US regulations and benefit from tax incentives by artificially shuffling ownership stakes, voting rights, or IP licensing with the intent of evading FEOC status.

    為了支持真正的國內製造業,我們對本月稍早發布的臨時財政部指導意見感到鼓舞。我們認為,該指導意見清楚地表明了政府的意圖,即解決中國型太陽能製造商為逃避美國法規和享受稅收優惠而人為地改變所有權股份、投票權或知識產權許可,以逃避聯邦出口管制委員會(FEOC)地位的行為。

  • We anticipate that the forthcoming FEOC restrictions will be aligned with the legislative intent of prohibiting access to tax credits for entities with sudden corporate restructuring locking business purpose. We also commend commerce preliminary CVD determinations issued earlier today as part of the broader Solar 4 AD/CVD investigation into Laos, India, and Indonesia, which reflect subsidy rates of approximately 81%, 126%, and 104%, respectively. Note, these preliminary CVD rates do not include preliminary anti-dumping rates, which will be additive and are expected to be determined in April.

    我們預計即將出台的聯邦企業重組委員會 (FEOC) 的限制措施將與立法意圖一致,即禁止突然進行公司重組、導致企業經營目的受阻的實體獲得稅收抵免。我們也讚揚今天稍早發布的商務部初步反補貼稅裁定,這是針對寮國、印度和印尼的更廣泛的「太陽能4AD/反補貼稅」調查的一部分,其中反映的補貼率分別約為81%、126%和104%。請注意,這些初步的反補貼稅率不包括初步的反傾銷稅率,反傾銷稅率將累加,預計將於 4 月確定。

  • It is expected that final aggregate AD/CVD rates will be determined by the end of September. We expect that the final AD/CVD duties applied in Solar 4 will again support a level playing field against the illegal and unfair trade practices of Chinese headquartered and other crystal silicon manufacturers who strategically evade US trade laws.

    預計最終的AD/CVD總發生率將在9月底確定。我們預計,Solar 4 中最終實施的 AD/CVD 關稅將再次支持公平競爭環境,打擊總部位於中國的晶體矽製造商和其他晶體矽製造商的非法和不公平貿易行為,這些製造商有策略地規避美國貿易法。

  • Finally, IP enforcement must be considered within the overall legal framework that includes these recent legislative and regulatory headwinds confronting the crystalline silicon industry. Earlier today, we filed a petition with the US International Trade Commission, or ITC, against 10 groups of foreign-headquartered manufacturers that we believe are producing products infringing on one of our US TOPCon patents. Note this is a separate action from our three actions seeking monetary damages against affiliates of Adani, Canadian Solar, and Jio in the US District Court.

    最後,智慧財產權執法必須在整體法律框架內加以考慮,該框架包括晶體矽產業最近面臨的這些立法和監管方面的不利因素。今天早些時候,我們向美國國際貿易委員會(ITC)提交了一份請願書,控告 10 家總部位於外國的製造商,我們認為這些製造商生產的產品侵犯了我們的一項美國 TOPCon 專利。請注意,這與我們在美國地方法院對 Adani、Canadian Solar 和 Jio 的關聯公司提起的三起金錢賠償訴訟是分開的。

  • With the ITC institute an investigation based on our complaint, we expect that the matter would be decided in approximately 18 months. If our case is successful, the ITC may issue a general exclusion order preventing the importation of infringing TOPCon products made by foreign entities or an alternative may issue a limited exclusion order preventing the importation of infringing TOPCon products by the entity's name in our complaint.

    ITC 已根據我們的投訴展開調查,我們預計此事將在大約 18 個月內得到裁決。如果我們的案件成功,ITC 可能會發布一般性排除令,禁止進口外國實體生產的侵權 TOPCon 產品;或者,ITC 可能會發布有限性排除令,禁止進口我們投訴中提及的實體生產的侵權 TOPCon 產品。

  • In addition, the ITC may issue a cease and desist order preventing the sale of infringing TOPCon products currently in the United States. Note, the IP-related headwinds confronting the crystalline silicon industry is reflected not just by First Solar's recent decrease and continued enforcement efforts, but also by the recently reported $236 million settlement entered in between Maxeon and Aiko, just days before a JUVE Patent court was due to decide their patent dispute.

    此外,美國國際貿易委員會 (ITC) 可以發布停止令,禁止在美國銷售目前在美國境內銷售的侵權 TOPCon 產品。值得注意的是,晶體矽產業面臨的智慧財產權相關逆風不僅體現在 First Solar 近期的減產和持續的維權行動上,也體現在 Maxeon 和 Aiko 最近達成的 2.36 億美元的和解協議上,而就在幾天前,JUVE 專利法庭即將對他們的專利糾紛作出裁決。

  • In summary, the policy and trade environment, together with sustained intellectual property enforcement across the industry have continued to generate mounting uncertainties for US developers that are dependent on suppliers tethered to China tied supply and/or IP.

    總而言之,政策和貿易環境,以及整個行業持續的智慧財產權執法,不斷為依賴與中國相關的供應和/或智慧財產權的美國開發商帶來越來越多的不確定性。

  • On the top of the technology, turning to slide 9. Our strategy remains anchored in a simple premise. Customers ultimately buy lifetime energy, not just nameplate efficiency. And our road map is designed to optimize the balance of efficiency, energy yield, and cost while leveraging our industry-leading thin-film expertise.

    回到技術層面,請翻到第 9 張投影片。我們的策略仍然是基於一個簡單的前提。顧客最終購買的是終身能源,而不僅僅是銘牌上的能源效率。我們的路線圖旨在優化效率、能源產量和成本之間的平衡,同時充分利用我們領先業界的薄膜技術。

  • We continue to believe the next step change in solar will be enabled by thin film platforms such as perovskites. We are well aware that many in the industry are seeking to crack the code of this potential next generation of advanced thin-film technology. However, we believe the winner of the perovskite race will also need to have the ability to manufacture the product cost competitively in a high-volume manufacturing environment. As the world's leader in thin-film PV technology and the world's only manufacturer of thin films at scale, we believe we are uniquely positioned to advance this prospective device given our nearly three decades of not only thin-film R&D learnings, but high-volume thin-film manufacturing experience.

    我們仍然相信,太陽能領域的下一步變革將由鈣鈦礦等薄膜平台推動。我們深知,業內許多人都在尋求破解這種潛在的下一代先進薄膜技術的密碼。然而,我們認為鈣鈦礦競賽的獲勝者還需要具備在大規模生產環境下以具有成本競爭力的方式生產該產品的能力。作為全球薄膜光伏技術的領導者和全球唯一一家大規模生產薄膜的製造商,我們相信,憑藉我們近三十年來在薄膜研發和大規模薄膜製造方面積累的經驗,我們擁有獨特的優勢來推進這項有前景的裝置的發展。

  • Our technology strategy continues to be primarily concentrated on two core thin-film focus pillars. Firstly, we are executing a disciplined phase-gate introduction of CuRe, responsibly bringing this new technology to market with proven laboratory results and expanding field validation.

    我們的技術策略仍主要集中在兩個核心薄膜重點領域。首先,我們正在有條不紊地分階段引入 CuRe,負責任地將這項新技術推向市場,並輔以已驗證的實驗室結果和不斷擴大的現場驗證。

  • Consistent with our prior outlook, we expect to permanently convert the Ohio lead line to CuRe in Q1, providing a pathway to enhance the energy attributes and competitiveness of our Series 6 platform and then rolling out these enhancements to our Series 7 platform at successive factories.

    與我們先前的展望一致,我們預計將在第一季將俄亥俄州鉛生產線永久轉換為 CuRe,從而為提升我們 6 系列平台的能源屬性和競爭力提供途徑,然後將這些改進推廣到我們後續工廠的 7 系列平台。

  • Executing CuRe remains strategically important because it is designed to enhance the attributes that translate into lifetime energy, including improved temperature response and degradation behavior, which are highly valued by utility scale customers. When adding the improved energy attributes of CuRe to the current energy advantages of thin-film cad tel, such as superior spectral and shading response, CuRe can deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon TOPCon technology in the markets we serve.

    執行 CuRe 仍然具有重要的戰略意義,因為它旨在增強轉化為終身能源的屬性,包括改善溫度響應和退化行為,而這些屬性對於公用事業規模的客戶來說非常重要。將 CuRe 的改進能源特性與薄膜鎘熱電偶的現有能源優勢(如優異的光譜和遮光響應)相結合,在我們所服務的市場中,CuRe 可提供比晶體矽 TOPCon 技術高出 8% 的壽命比能源產量。

  • Our second pillar, perovskites, is a key part of our effort to develop next-generation thin-film semiconductors that can be deployed at commercial scale in both our traditional utility scale markets while potentially expanding our addressable market segments.

    我們的第二個支柱—鈣鈦礦,是我們開發下一代薄膜半導體的關鍵部分,這些半導體可以在我們傳統的公用事業規模市場中進行商業化部署,同時有可能擴大我們可觸及的市場領域。

  • To date, we have achieved reliability results we believe are comparable with best-in-class R&D efforts while continuing to advance efficiency and stability, two of the industry's key hurdles to scaling perovskite technology. A major enabler of these efforts is our dedicated perovskite development line in Ohio.

    迄今為止,我們已取得我們認為可與一流研發成果相媲美的可靠性成果,同時不斷提高效率和穩定性,這是鈣鈦礦技術規模化應用面臨的兩大關鍵障礙。這些努力的主要動力是我們位於俄亥俄州的專用鈣鈦礦開發生產線。

  • As announced prior to the beginning of the call, we have entered into an agreement with Oxford PV, the holder of what we believe is the most fundamental portfolio of perovskite-related patents. Under the terms of this agreement, Oxford PV will license to us on a nonexclusive basis, its existing issued and currently pending patent applications. We believe that this agreement will advance our freedom to develop, manufacture and sell crystalline silicon-free perovskite-based semiconductor modules in the US utility, commercial, and residential markets.

    正如我們在電話會議開始前宣布的那樣,我們已經與 Oxford PV 達成了一項協議,該公司擁有我們認為最基礎的鈣鈦礦相關專利組合。根據本協議條款,牛津光電公司將以非獨佔方式向我們授予其已頒發和正在申請專利的專利許可。我們相信,這項協議將促進我們在美國公用事業、商業和住宅市場開發、製造和銷售無晶體矽鈣鈦礦半導體組件的自由。

  • I will now turn the call back over to Alex, who will discuss our 2026 outlook and guidance.

    現在我將把電話轉回給 Alex,他將討論我們 2026 年的展望和指導方針。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Mark. Before turning to our financial guidance, I want to briefly reiterate our approach to managing the business amid a dynamic market policy and trade environment. We entered 2026 with a backlog of 50.1 gigawatts despite taking a highly selective approach to bookings over the past two years. We expect to continue this strategy in 2026 as we await the outcome of and impact on forward module demand and pricing from the numerous political, regulatory, and legal matters discussed earlier in the call.

    謝謝你,馬克。在介紹我們的財務指導之前,我想先簡單重申一下我們在動態的市場政策和貿易環境下管理業務的方法。儘管過去兩年我們對預訂採取了高度選擇性的方法,但進入 2026 年時,我們的積壓訂單仍高達 50.1 吉瓦。我們預計將在 2026 年繼續採取此策略,同時等待先前電話會議中討論的眾多政治、監管和法律問題的結果及其對未來模組需求和價格的影響。

  • We believe our market position with non-FEOC and high US content supply on our proprietary thin film platform remains long-term advantage and our existing contracted backlog relative to our production capacity provides us with the ability and flexibility to be patient.

    我們相信,憑藉我們專有的薄膜平台,我們在非FEOC和高美國含量供應方面的市場地位仍然是長期優勢,而且我們現有的合約積壓訂單相對於我們的生產能力而言,使我們有能力和靈活性保持耐心。

  • Regarding 2026 US deliveries, many of our customers continue to face both regulatory and commercial challenges, including federal permitting approval delays. As we previously stated, we will continue to work with customers to accommodate schedule shifts where possible, consistent with our philosophy of supporting our long-term partnerships even while we are not contractually required to do so. We entered 2026 with a fully allocated position for our US production.

    關於 2026 年美國交付,我們的許多客戶仍然面臨監管和商業方面的挑戰,包括聯邦許可批准延遲。正如我們之前所說,我們將繼續與客戶合作,盡可能地調整日程安排,這符合我們支持長期合作夥伴關係的理念,即使我們沒有合約義務這樣做。進入 2026 年,我們在美國的生產職位已全部分配完畢。

  • Given tariff uncertainty, our India production is assumed to be sold into the India domestic market. We'll continue to monitor opportunities to export products into the US where it is margin accretive to do so.

    鑑於關稅的不確定性,我們假設在印度生產的產品將銷往印度國內市場。我們將繼續關注向美國出口產品的機會,如果這樣做能夠提高利潤率的話。

  • Our guidance assumes our India facility operating at full capacity with the ability to flex production as needed through the year in response to changes in demand signals. Demand for our Series 6 international products produced in Malaysia and Vietnam remains constrained. Our decision in Q4 of 2025 to establish a new finishing line in the US allows us to make use of a portion of the front end of these Southeast Asian facilities, optimizing freight, tariffs, and domestic content for the sale of incremental products into the US domestic market.

    我們的指導意見假設我們在印度的工廠滿載運轉,並能夠根據需求訊號的變化,在一年內靈活調整生產。馬來西亞和越南生產的我們的 6 系列國際產品的需求仍然有限。我們在 2025 年第四季決定在美國建立一條新的成品生產線,這使我們能夠利用東南亞工廠的部分前端設施,優化運費、關稅和國內含量,從而將增量產品銷售到美國國內市場。

  • We intend to run our remaining end-to-end capacity in Malaysia and Vietnam at low utilization rates this year despite the financial impact of doing so, maintaining a near-term option to increase throughput should catalysts such as the political and regulatory matters discussed earlier, drive incremental profitable demand.

    儘管這樣做會對財務造成影響,但我們今年仍打算以較低的利用率運行我們在馬來西亞和越南的剩餘端到端產能,同時保留在近期內提高產能的選擇權,以應對之前討論過的政治和監管問題等催化劑推動的盈利性需求增長。

  • Slide 10 shows our capacity and forecast production for 2026 and into 2027. Nameplate capacity reflects current output entitlement at full scale throughput and yield with downtime solely for planned maintenance. Production reflects nameplate capacity adjusted for factory ramp, other downtime, including the technology and tool upgrades and any planned reduction in throughput, including due to market demand.

    第 10 張投影片展示了我們 2026 年及 2027 年的產能和預測產量。銘牌產能反映了滿載運轉時的當前產量和產量,停機時間僅限於計畫維護。生產反映了銘牌產能,並根據工廠爬坡、其他停機時間(包括技術和工具升級)以及任何計劃的產量減少(包括由於市場需求而導致的產量減少)進行了調整。

  • As it relates to technology, as previously noted, we expect to recommence running Series 6 CuRe products in Perrysburg this quarter. Assumed in our 2026 production forecast for India is downtime associated with tool upgrades with the intent of beginning CuRe production on our first Series 7 line in India in early 2027, followed by the remainder of the Series 7 fleet thereafter.

    就技術而言,如同先前所提到的,我們預計本季將在佩里斯堡恢復生產 6 系列 CuRe 產品。我們在 2026 年對印度的生產預測中考慮到了與工具升級相關的停機時間,目標是在 2027 年初開始在印度的第一條 7 系列生產線上生產 CuRe,隨後是 7 系列生產線的其餘部分。

  • Additionally, our Southeast Asian capacity has reduced significantly in both 2026 and 2027 due to the removal of tools destined for our U.S. finishing line as well as the reuse in our perovskite development work. By 2027, US finishing capacity is forecast to be 3.5 gigawatts, with remaining Southeast Asia capacity of 1.8 gigawatts for fully finished international Series 6 modules.

    此外,由於移除了原本用於美國精加工生產線的工具,以及在鈣鈦礦開發工作中重複使用,我們在 2026 年和 2027 年的東南亞產能大幅下降。預計到 2027 年,美國成品產能將達到 3.5 吉瓦,東南亞剩餘產能將達到 1.8 吉瓦,用於生產完全成品的國際 6 系列組件。

  • With projected US nameplate capacity of 14.9 gigawatts in 2026, growing to 17.1 gigawatts in 2027 with the scaling of Louisiana and South Carolina, we expect global nameplate capacity of 19 gigawatts in 2026 and 22.1 gigawatts in 2027. And note, we expect US nameplate to continue to increase as we drive technology throughput and yield improvements.

    預計到 2026 年美國額定發電容量為 14.9 吉瓦,隨著路易斯安那州和南卡羅來納州的擴建,到 2027 年將增長到 17.1 吉瓦,我們預計到 2026 年全球額定發電容量為 19 吉瓦,到 2027 年為 22.1 吉瓦吉瓦。另外要注意的是,隨著我們不斷提高技術產能和良率,我們預期美國品牌產品將持續成長。

  • In terms of production, as previously noted, we expect significant underutilization of our international Series 6 facilities. India is assumed to run high throughput with the ability to flex production as needed based on local demand and international sale options. With forecasted US production of 13 to 13.3 gigawatts this year and 14.9 to 16.1 gigawatts next year, this results in total forecasted production of 16.5 to 17.5 gigawatts in 2026 and 18.9 to 20.5 gigawatts in 2027.

    就生產而言,正如之前提到的,我們預計我們的國際 6 系列工廠將嚴重未充分利用。據推測,印度將實現高產能,並能夠根據當地需求和國際銷售選擇靈活調整生產。預計美國今年發電量為 13 至 13.3 吉瓦,明年為 14.9 至 16.1 吉瓦,由此預測,2026 年總發電量將達到 16.5 至 17.5 吉瓦,2027 年將達到 18.9 至 20.5 吉瓦。

  • Turning to slide 11 and other assumptions embedded within our guidance today. Expected volumes sold of 17 to 18.2 gigawatts is above forecast production as we reduce inventory levels by year-end. We forecasted ASP of approximately $0.308 per watt for volumes sold in the US, slightly above our contracted backlog. This includes certain freight, tariff and commodity recovery, and technology upside. Now, we expect limited ASP upside from CuRe sales in 2026, largely as a function of contractual notification deadlines relative to the timing of the decision to recommence CuRe production.

    接下來請看第 11 頁投影片以及我們今天指南中涉及的其他假設。預計銷量將達到 17 至 18.2 吉瓦,高於預測產量,因為我們將在年底前降低庫存水準。我們預測美國市場的平均售價約為每瓦 0.308 美元,略高於我們合約規定的積壓訂單價格。這包括某些貨運、關稅和商品回收以及技術上漲。現在,我們預計 2026 年 CuRe 的銷售平均售價上漲空間有限,這主要是由於合約通知期限與重新開始生產 CuRe 的決定時間之間的關係所致。

  • Combined with India domestic sales, the majority of which we expect to book and deliver within the next year, we forecast a global ASP recognized of approximately $0.287 per watt. Cost per watt sold is forecast to remain relatively flat year over year at approximately $0.267 per watt, which includes the impact of tariffs and the impact of reshoring US manufacturing, largely recognized through ramp and underutilization expense and excludes the benefit of Section 45X credits generated by domestic manufacturing. Including the benefit of Section 45X credits, cost per watt sold is projected to be down approximately $0.03 per watt year over year.

    加上印度國內銷售額(我們預計大部分將在未來一年內完成預訂和交付),我們預測全球平均售價約為每瓦 0.287 美元。每瓦銷售成本預計將與去年同期保持相對平穩,約為每瓦 0.267 美元,其中包括關稅的影響和美國製造業回流的影響(主要透過爬坡和未充分利用費用體現),但不包括國內製造業產生的第 45X 條款稅收抵免的收益。考慮到第 45X 條款的稅收抵免,預計每瓦銷售成本將比前一年下降約 0.03 美元。

  • Cost watt released from inventory is expected to increase approximately $0.02 per watt year over year. Approximately half of this increase is forecast to come from a mix shift as both Southeast Asia production reduces and Louisiana and Alabama increases, and the other half to come as a result of multiple factors, including increases in tariff costs, increases in core bill of material costs, increases in utility rates, and downtime for technology upgrades.

    預計從庫存中釋放的成本瓦特將逐年增加約 0.02 美元/瓦。預計這一增長的一半左右將來自結構轉變,即東南亞產量減少,而路易斯安那州和阿拉巴馬州產量增加;另一半將來自多種因素,包括關稅成本增加、核心材料成本增加、公用事業費率增加以及技術升級停機時間。

  • Period costs are expected to decrease by an equivalent approximately $0.02 per watt from a combination of lower standard sales rate due to greater domestic mix shift, the effective elimination of non-standard freight charges as a function of reduced international product imports, reduced warehousing costs, and other period cost reductions.

    由於國內產品組合變化較大,標準銷售價格降低;由於國際產品進口減少,非標準運費有效取消;倉儲成本降低;以及其他期間成本降低,預計每瓦期間成本將減少約 0.02 美元。

  • To provide some more color, we forecast total net tariff cost impact across bill of material and finished goods imports recognized in both cost per watt produced and period costs towards cost per watt sold of $155 million to $175 million. Net of expected contractual recoveries on finished goods sold, we expect a total tariff impact of $125 million to $135 million. This assumes a Section 122 tariff in place for 150 days at 15%, impacting all bill of materials, works in progress, and finished goods imports in that time period.

    為了更詳細地說明情況,我們預測,物料清單和成品進口的總淨關稅成本影響(包括每瓦生產成本和每瓦銷售成本)為 1.55 億美元至 1.75 億美元。扣除已售成品預期合約回收款項後,我們預計關稅總影響為 1.25 億美元至 1.35 億美元。假設第 122 條款關稅在 150 天內以 15% 的稅率實施,這將影響該期間內所有物料清單、在製品和成品進口。

  • In addition, certain commodities, including aluminum, are subject to long-lasting higher rate Section 232 tariffs. And note that we recognize the P&L impact of tariffs at the time of product sale, our total tariff impact in 2026 reflects higher tariff rates paid on bill of materials, works in progress, and finished goods imports incurred prior to the recent Supreme Court decision.

    此外,包括鋁在內的某些商品,還需長期繳納較高稅率的第 232 條關稅。請注意,我們在產品銷售時會考慮關稅對損益的影響,我們 2026 年的關稅總影響反映了在最高法院最近的裁決之前,對物料清單、在製品和成品進口支付的較高關稅稅率。

  • Tariffs also indirectly due to underlying commodity cost pressure for our variable US bill of material, including relating to aluminum, steel, glass, interlayer targets, and spares. In addition, electricity rate hikes increased fixed costs. These cost increases are not contractually recoverable from our customers.

    關稅也間接導致我們可變美國物料清單中的基本商品成本壓力,包括鋁、鋼、玻璃、夾層靶材和備用零件。此外,電價上漲也增加了固定成本。這些成本增加無法透過合約向客戶追償。

  • Sales rate is forecast to be approximately $0.014 per watt in 2026. Warehousing-related costs of approximately $200 million is down from 2025, but remains high in part of a function of underutilization of space driven by our forecasted Southeast Asian curtailment. Beginning in 2027, we expect to reduce warehouse costs to a longer-term run rate of approximately $100 million per year.

    預計到 2026 年,銷售價格約為每瓦 0.014 美元。與 2025 年相比,倉儲相關成本約為 2 億美元,但仍然很高,部分原因是由於我們預測東南亞的減產導致空間利用率不足。從 2027 年開始,我們預計倉庫成本將長期維持在每年約 1 億美元。

  • Forecast ramp and underutilization expenses of $115 million to $155 million are a function of curtailing Malaysia and Vietnam capacity as well as the ramp of our US finishing line. Setup cost is expected to be $110 million to $120 million, driven primarily by the ongoing depreciation and logistics associated with idled finishing equipment in transit as well as certain tariff-related costs incurred to import that equipment and warehousing such equipment for use at our new South Carolina facility.

    預計產能爬坡和產能利用不足造成的損失為 1.15 億美元至 1.55 億美元,這是由於馬來西亞和越南產能削減以及美國生產線產能爬坡造成的。預計啟動成本為 1.1 億美元至 1.2 億美元,主要原因是閒置的加工設備在運輸途中產生的持續折舊和物流費用,以及為進口該設備並在我們位於南卡羅來納州的新工廠使用該設備而產生的某些關稅相關成本。

  • And finally, note on capital structure. Our strong balance sheet remains a strategic differentiator. It allows us to navigate periods of volatility, including near-term supply and demand imbalances in certain international markets, while continuing to support R&D investment, technology capital spend, and capacity growth, including localizing the US solar supply chain in support of energy security and national policy objectives.

    最後,關於資本結構需要說明一下。我們強勁的資產負債表仍然是我們的策略優勢。它使我們能夠應對波動時期,包括某些國際市場近期供需失衡,同時繼續支持研發投資、技術資本支出和產能成長,包括將美國太陽能供應鏈在地化,以支持能源安全和國家政策目標。

  • We ended 2025 in a strong liquidity position and have since enhanced our financial flexibility by entering into a new $1.5 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility, improved commercial terms, greater flexibility, and more relaxed covenants.

    我們在 2025 年底擁有強勁的流動性,此後透過簽訂新的 15 億美元高級無抵押循環信貸協議、改善商業條款、提高靈活性和放寬契約,增強了我們的財務靈活性。

  • In 2026, we intend to fund CapEx through cash on hand and operating cash flow. We plan to prepay the remaining balances outstanding under our India credit facilities, including our loan with the DFC ahead of its scheduled maturity. Doing so enables us to optimize our jurisdictional capital structure, increase the capacity of our local working capital facilities while reducing exposure to India rupee volatility-related hedging costs.

    2026年,我們計劃透過手頭現金和經營現金流為資本支出提供資金。我們計劃提前償還我們在印度信貸安排下的剩餘未償餘額,包括我們向美國國際開發金融公司 (DFC) 的貸款,該貸款將在其預定到期日之前償還。這樣做可以優化我們的司法管轄區資本結構,提高我們本地營運資金的能力,同時降低與印度盧比波動相關的對沖成本。

  • Separately, while not assumed in our guidance, potential monetization of 2026 Section 45X tax credits provides additional liquidity optionality. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged.

    另外,雖然我們的指導方針中沒有假設,但 2026 年第 45X 條款稅收抵免的潛在貨幣化提供了額外的流動性選擇。我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變。

  • Firstly, we prioritize maintaining a resilient working capital reserve of approximately $1.5 billion to $2 billion to account for industry cyclicality and uncertainty and short-term supply and demand imbalances.

    首先,我們優先維持約 15 億至 20 億美元的穩健營運資金儲備,以應對產業週期性和不確定性以及短期供需失衡。

  • Secondly, we deploy cash to fund growth and replicate technology improvements across the fleet.

    其次,我們投入資金來資助成長,並將技術改進推廣到整個艦隊。

  • Thirdly, we invest in innovation through R&D and targeted capital investments as well as strategic enablers such as licensing arrangements to advance our technology road map, including perovskite optionality.

    第三,我們透過研發和有針對性的資本投資以及許可協議等策略推動措施來投資創新,以推進我們的技術路線圖,包括鈣鈦礦選擇權。

  • Fourthly, we'll consider M&A, which we're actively evaluating, to pursue complementary technology adjacent opportunities to reinforce our strategic differentiation. As we near the conclusion of recent years of sustained high CapEx associated with manufacturing capacity growth, we will evaluate applying cash generation in excess of the above capital priorities to share repurchases. We'll provide an update on this later in the year, pending clarity around certain factors, including policy catalysts, realization of new bookings volume, and any decisions around 2026 Section 45X tax credit monetization.

    第四,我們將考慮併購,我們正在積極評估併購的可能性,以尋求互補技術鄰近的機會,從而加強我們的策略差異化。隨著近年來與製造業產能成長相關的持續高資本支出即將結束,我們將評估是否將超出上述資本優先事項的現金流量用於股票回購。我們將在今年稍後提供這方面的最新消息,具體情況取決於某些因素的明朗化,包括政策催化劑、新預訂量的實現以及有關 2026 年第 45X 節稅收抵免貨幣化的任何決定。

  • I'll now cover the full-year 2026 guidance ranges on slide 12. Our net sales guidance of between $4.9 billion and $5.2 billion. Gross margin is expected to be between $2.5 billion and $2.6 billion or approximately 49.5%, which includes $2.1 billion to $2.19 billion of Section 45X tax credits and $115 million to $155 million of ramp and underutilization costs. SG&A expense is expected to be between $215 million and $225 million and R&D expense between $285 million and $290 million. The primary driver for our increase is due to higher investment in advanced research, including expanded perovskite innovation center activity and planned headcount additions.

    接下來,我將在第 12 張投影片上介紹 2026 年全年的業績指引範圍。我們預計淨銷售額將在 49 億美元至 52 億美元之間。預計毛利將在 25 億美元至 26 億美元之間,約為 49.5%,其中包括 21 億美元至 21.9 億美元的第 45X 條款稅收抵免,以及 1.15 億美元至 1.55 億美元的啟動和未充分利用成本。銷售、一般及行政費用預計在 2.15 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間,研發費用預計在 2.85 億美元至 2.9 億美元之間。我們成長的主要驅動因素是加大對先進研究的投入,包括擴大鈣鈦礦創新中心活動和計畫增加人員編制。

  • SG&A and R&D expense combined is expected to total $500 million to $515 million and total operating expenses, which includes $110 million to $120 million of production start-up expense, are expected to be between $610 million and $635 million. Included within our R&D expense guide for 2026 are approximately $100 million of costs associated with perovskite development.

    銷售、管理及行政費用和研發費用合計預計為 5 億美元至 5.15 億美元,總營運費用(包括 1.1 億美元至 1.2 億美元的生產啟動費用)預計在 6.1 億美元至 6.35 億美元之間。我們在 2026 年的研發支出指南中列入了約 1 億美元的鈣鈦礦開發相關成本。

  • Going forward, we intend to guide on an adjusted EBITDA basis, which we believe provides the clearest view of our underlying operating performance, enhances comparability across periods. We forecast full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion.

    展望未來,我們計劃以調整後的 EBITDA 為基礎進行業績指引,我們認為這能最清晰地反映我們的基本經營業績,並增強不同時期之間的可比性。我們預測全年調整後 EBITDA 為 26 億美元至 28 億美元。

  • From a first-quarter earnings cadence perspective, we expect module sales of 3.4 to 4 gigawatts, Section 45X tax credits of $330 million to $400 million, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of between $400 million and $500 million.

    從第一季獲利節奏來看,我們預計組件銷售額為 3.4 至 4 吉瓦,第 45X 條款稅收抵免為 3.3 億美元至 4 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 4 億美元至 5 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures in 2026 are forecast to range from $0.8 billion to $1 billion. Approximately half of the spend will support capacity expansion, primarily the South Carolina finishing line and the Louisiana plant. Remaining spend is expected to be split evenly between CuRe in India and R&D technology replication and maintenance.

    預計 2026 年的資本支出將在 8 億美元至 10 億美元之間。大約一半的支出將用於支持產能擴張,主要集中在南卡羅來納州的成品生產線和路易斯安那州的工廠。剩餘支出預計將平均分配給印度的 CuRe 項目和研發技術複製與維護。

  • We expect to end 2026 with gross and net cash balances between $1.7 billion and $2.3 billion and assume a full repayment of our India credit facility with the US International Development Finance Corporation by June 30, 2026.

    我們預計到 2026 年底,總現金餘額和淨現金餘額將在 17 億美元至 23 億美元之間,並假設到 2026 年 6 月 30 日,我們將全額償還與美國國際發展金融公司簽訂的印度信貸協議。

  • With that, we conclude our prepared remarks and open the call for questions. Operator?

    至此,我們的發言稿結束,現在開始接受提問。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs & Co.

    (操作說明)布萊恩李,高盛公司

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess just on the ASP front, Mark, you mentioned the $0.364 per watt, including adders for the US bookings this quarter. How much did the adders add there? And then is that sort of the level of entitlement, $0.36 and above that you would expect for US bookings through the rest of the year? Maybe can you comment on visibility you have on the pricing environment from this point forward?

    各位,下午好。謝謝您回答問題。馬克,我想說的是,就平均售價(ASP)而言,你提到了每瓦 0.364 美元,其中包括本季美國預訂的附加費。加法器在那裡加了多少?那麼,今年剩餘時間美國地區的預訂,您是否期望獲得 0.36 美元及以上的合理價格?您能否談談您對未來定價環境的了解?

  • And then just secondarily, on the gross margins, I'd be curious, I mean, this is implying kind of a 10% component gross margin in the guidance, even if I factor out underutilization and the 45x credit. So I know there's a lot of moving pieces, Alex, but when do you guys kind of get back to high-teens, 20% type of gross margin for components the way you were at in 2024? And kind of what are some of the big bridges to get back there? Thank you.

    其次,關於毛利率,我很好奇,我的意思是,即使我排除產能利用不足和 45 倍信貸,這似乎也暗示著指導意見中毛利率只有 10%。我知道這其中有很多變數,Alex,但是你們什麼時候才能恢復到2024年時零件毛利率在10%到20%左右的水平呢?那麼,要回到那裡,有哪些主要的過橋路呢?謝謝。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll do the ASP conversation and then Alex, obviously take the gross margin. But -- so there's about, call it, $0.025 to $0.03 of the value of the adder in terms of the ASP, that $0.34 -- or excuse me, $0.364. So that's about the number. So the CuRe attributes will give you close to 3%. Not everything that was booked in that 36.4% actually had the adder. So if you sort of broke it out a little bit, you potentially going to see slightly higher prices for the CuRe attributes for the product that we booked with the CuRe attributes.

    我會負責平均售價(ASP)的討論,然後Alex顯然會負責毛利率。但是——所以,就平均售價而言,加法器的價值大約是 0.025 美元到 0.03 美元,也就是 0.34 美元——或者抱歉,0.364 美元。所以大概就是這個數字。因此,CuRe 屬性將使您獲得接近 3% 的值。並非所有預訂都包含這 36.4% 的附加費。所以,如果你稍微細分一下,你可能會看到,對於我們預訂的帶有 CuRe 屬性的產品,CuRe 屬性的價格會略高一些。

  • But look, I think the entitlement wise, I mean, I feel good about the pricing that we're at now, but I think there's some more catalysts that could still happen. I think some are leaning in with all the uncertainty that we referenced on the call in terms of what happens with 232 and what window are they trying to book into given the constraints with FEOC.

    但是,就權利而言,我的意思是,我對我們目前的定價感到滿意,但我認為還有一些催化劑可能會出現。我認為,鑑於我們在電話會議中提到的所有不確定性,有些人正在積極爭取,因為 232 號簽證將會發生什麼,以及考慮到聯邦緊急事務管理署 (FEOC) 的限制,他們試圖預訂哪個時間段的簽證。

  • And I think if we see -- continue to see more momentum there, we just obviously saw the Solar 4 announcements, which obviously are going to address imports coming in from those three countries that we referenced. So there's potentially more tailwinds depending on how they play out that could support even better pricing as we move forward. But I think visibility-wise, I think that's kind of a good indication of where we expect the market pricing to be relative to the CuRe technology.

    我認為,如果我們看到——繼續看到這方面有更大的發展勢頭,我們剛剛也看到了 Solar 4 的公告,這顯然是為了解決我們提到的三個國家的進口問題。因此,根據事態發展情況,未來可能會有更多利多因素,從而支持更優惠的價格。但我認為,從可見性來看,這很好地表明了我們預期 CuRe 技術市場定價的大致方向。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Brian, on the gross margin, so if you back out the 45X, it's about a 7% gross margin. And if you think about that against the $5 billion revenue profile, it's about $350 million of gross margin. So if you try and walk that back up to, call it, the 20% number we've talked about before. This year, we've got about $165 million of tariffs sitting in there and about $135 million on utilization. So you have about $300 million or so there, about 6 points of margin.

    是的。Brian,關於毛利率,如果扣除 45 倍,毛利率大約是 7%。如果考慮到 50 億美元的營收規模,毛利約為 3.5 億美元。所以,如果你試著把這個數字拉回我們之前討論過的 20% 這個數字。今年,我們有大約 1.65 億美元的關稅收入積壓,還有約 1.35 億美元的利用收入積壓。所以你們那裡大概有3億美元左右,利潤率大約有6個百分點。

  • You've got about $200 million of warehousing. I think we said in the prepared remarks, that will come down to about $100 million on a run rate basis next year. So pick up another $100 million in there, another 2 points of margin.

    你們的倉儲設施約2億美元。我想我們在事先準備好的演講稿中說過,明年按年計算,這個數字將降至約 1 億美元。所以再賺1億美元,利潤率再提高2個百分點。

  • And then if you look at the adjusted, we talked about $600 million of the backlog mostly recognized in 2027, 2028. So you take $300 million across each of those years, that's another 6 points of margin. That kind of walks you back up to around about $1 billion of gross margin and a 20% number.

    然後,如果你看一下調整後的數據,我們談到了6億美元的積壓訂單,這些訂單大多將在2027年、2028年確認。所以,如果每年都增加 3 億美元,那就又增加了 6 個百分點的利潤空間。這樣一來,毛利就回到了約 10 億美元左右,毛利率約 20%。

  • So tariff is obviously still in that. That's an impact that we're still wrestling with. But I'd also say you've got incremental volume coming in next year, which is not factored into that and the contribution margin benefit of that even ex IRA is going to be meaningful.

    所以關稅顯然仍然包含在其中。我們仍在努力應對這種影響。但我還想說,明年還會有新增的交易量,這還沒有被考慮在內,即使不考慮 IRA,這帶來的貢獻毛利收益也將是可觀的。

  • I'd also say it's -- we're trying to look at this on an ex IRA basis, but it's challenging to do that to some degree because we are adding incremental costs, both by US manufacturing and also by the mix shift to bringing more production into the US. And we're doing that, and that allows us and enables us to capture that 45X credit. So I know we're looking on an ex IRA basis.

    我還要說——我們正在嘗試從非IRA的角度來看待這個問題,但這在某種程度上很有挑戰性,因為我們正在增加增量成本,既包括美國製造的成本,也包括將更多生產轉移到美國的成本結構轉變的成本。我們正在這樣做,這使我們能夠獲得 45 倍的信用額度。所以我知道我們現在要以IRA帳戶為基礎進行評估。

  • But if you think about it with the IRA included with that 45X yes, the core also is 7% this year and the walkup that we talked about just now, but you've got 43 points of IRA. So the gross margin on a GAAP basis will be 50% this year relative to 41% last year, which is the highest we've seen.

    但如果你考慮到 IRA 也包含在 45 倍的收益率中,是的,今年的核心收益率也是 7%,還有我們剛才提到的遞增收益率,但你還有 43 倍的 IRA 收益率。因此,以美國通用會計準則計算,今年的毛利率將達到 50%,而去年為 41%,這是我們所見過的最高水準。

  • So obviously, we want to keep growing the core underlying non-IRA, and there's a path there, as I said, to take you back up to that $20 million and we're about $1 billion at that $5 billion revenue profile. But you can't ignore the two and the interconnectedness of the fact that we are reshoring capacity, and that does come at a cost, both direct cost and mix shift cost that enables us to capture those 45X benefits.

    顯然,我們希望繼續發展核心的非IRA業務,正如我所說,這是一條可以讓你回到2000萬美元目標的途徑,而我們目前的業務規模約為10億美元,收入目標為​​50億美元。但你不能忽視這兩點以及我們正在將產能遷回國內這一事實的相互關聯性,而這確實會帶來成本,包括直接成本和組合調整成本,使我們能夠獲得 45 倍的收益。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And Brian, maybe I want to add a couple of things to. One back to on the pricing environment, I also want to make sure this is clear is that, that product or that ASP is also reflective of largely influenced by a domestic content product, right?

    是的。布萊恩,或許我還想補充幾點。回到定價環境,我還想明確一點,那就是該產品或平均售價也很大程度上受到國內內容產品的影響,對嗎?

  • Now, what we do a lot of times is it's agreed to around some number of points, which allow us to bring in some amount of international volume, assuming the tariff rates are amenable such that we can blend international. But if we ended up doing a straight up international deal, for example, with some of the capacity we have available with our Malaysia, Vietnam facilities, I would expect that price point to be closer to $0.30.

    現在,我們很多時候的做法是,就一些要點達成一致,這使我們能夠引入一定數量的國際貨量,前提是關稅稅率合適,我們可以將國際貨量混合起來。但如果我們最終達成一項直接的國際交易,例如利用我們在馬來西亞和越南的工廠的部分可用產能,我預計價格將接近 0.30 美元。

  • So I just want to make sure that, that's clear. So if we actually end up booking some of that international volume as we go forward, that you may see a lower ASP there because of that dynamic. I want to make sure that's clear.

    所以我想確認一下,這一點是否清楚。因此,如果我們未來真的能拿下一些國際訂單,那麼由於這種動態因素,您可能會看到平均售價降低。我想確保這一點很清楚。

  • And then the other one, just to Alex's point around tariff. The other thing that's kind of creating some headwind for us this year is -- and we've mentioned this before, I mean, there is insufficient glass supply in the US.

    然後還有一點,正好回應 Alex 關於關稅的觀點。今年為我們帶來一些不利影響的另一個因素是——我們之前也提到過——美國的玻璃供應不足。

  • And we've been working to bring in basically brownfield and mothballed facilities and getting them up and operational. But to support the scaling that we have right now, we are bringing in some glass internationally and using it in our US production, and that is creating a cost headwind. My inbound freight costs are higher. I'm bearing the cost of the tariffs.

    我們一直在努力將一些廢棄的、閒置的設施重新啟用並投入運作。但為了支持我們目前的規模化生產,我們從國際上進口了一些玻璃,並將其用於我們在美國的生產,這造成了成本上的不利影響。我的進口貨運成本較高。關稅費用由我負擔。

  • And what we would expect to do as we scale up our supply chain here in the US, which we're in the midst of doing, we'll see less of a dependency on that import of that glass, which will also help us a little bit on our gross margin profile.

    隨著我們擴大在美國的供應鏈規模(我們正在這樣做),我們預計對進口玻璃的依賴程度會降低,這也有助於提高我們的毛利率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies LLC.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,Jefferies LLC。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you all very much. Appreciate the opportunity to connect here. Appreciate it. Look, if I can ask you, first off, just to reconcile on the volumes produced versus sold, can you comment a little bit about just what you're seeing here of late?

    非常感謝大家。感謝有機會在這裡與大家交流。謝謝。首先,為了核對產量與銷量,能否請您談談最近您觀察到的情況?

  • And then separately, can you comment a little bit about what you're actually seeing in terms of sell-through on volumes out of Asia? I know your prepared comments had some nuance on this, but just elaborate a little bit about what both Southeast Asia/India are assuming here in '26 and what you're seeing preliminarily '27 as well.

    另外,您能否單獨談談您在亞洲的銷售量方面實際看到的情況?我知道您事先準備好的評論對此有一些細微差別,但請您再詳細說明一下東南亞/印度在 2026 年的預期,以及您對 2027 年的初步看法。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So if you go to the slides, we give you a walk on what we're expecting to produce versus sell. The delta between the two is about 700 megawatts coming out of inventory. So that's the gap you're seeing between produced volume and sold volume. And we gave you the US number for sold. You can see it in there. It's (inaudible) it's in the script, I'll come back to you. But yes, the delta is coming out of inventory.

    是的。所以,如果你去看投影片,我們會帶你了解我們預期生產的產品與實際銷售的產品之間的差異。兩者之間的差距約為700兆瓦的庫存發電量。這就是你看到的產量和銷售量之間的差距。我們已經把美國的銷售數據告訴你們了。你可以在那裡看到它。(聽不清楚)劇本裡有,我稍後再告訴你。是的,差額正在從庫存中減少。

  • And what was your second question, Julien?

    朱利安,你的第二個問題是什麼?

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think part of your question was on sell-through of Southeast Asia, I think, is what you --

    我認為你的問題一部分是關於東南亞的銷售情況,我想,這才是你真正想說的。--

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, on sell-through. What are they --

    是的,透過銷售。這些是什麼--

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So yes, let's talk through that. So India is going to produce, call it, 3 gigawatts or so this year and will be sold into the India market. We're actually going to have a really strong quarter. We had a really strong Q4, and we'll have a strong Q1 in India. So demand in India is strong. So we got 3 gigawatts or so, a little bit north of that because we got some inventory sell-through that we'll sell in 2026 in India domestically manufactured, sold into the India market, okay?

    是的,我們來詳細談談。所以印度今年將生產約 3 吉瓦的電力,並銷往印度市場。我們本季業績將會非常強勁。我們在第四季表現非常強勁,預計第一季在印度也會有強勁的業績。因此,印度的需求很強勁。所以我們獲得了大約 3 吉瓦的裝機容量,略高於這個數字,因為我們有一些庫存售出,這些庫存將在 2026 年在印度國內生產並銷往印度市場,好嗎?

  • Now, on the Southeast Asia, those factories are kind of running 20% or so. I mean, they're extremely underutilized. And what Alex said in his prepared remarks is that we're looking at this almost as option value.

    現在,東南亞的那些工廠的開工率大概只有 20% 左右。我的意思是,它們遠未得到充分利用。亞歷克斯在事先準備好的發言稿中說,我們幾乎是把這看作是選擇權價值。

  • Now, some of that capacity will be fully utilized once we get our South Carolina facility up because the front-end capacity for, call it, half of the Southeast Asia manufacturing will come to the US, so that will solve a piece of that underutilization.

    現在,一旦我們在南卡羅來納州的工廠投產,部分產能將得到充分利用,因為東南亞一半的製造業前端產能將轉移到美國,這將解決一部分產能利用不足的問題。

  • The other half is going to continue to be underutilized at a very low utilization rate. But what we're looking at this is really an option to allow some of these potential tailwinds around 232 and other things to play itself out to see what the impact of that could be to create more demand for those international operations.

    另一半將繼續處於低利用率狀態。但我們現在考慮的是一種選擇,讓圍繞 232 和其他因素的一些潛在利好因素發揮作用,看看這會產生什麼影響,從而為這些國際業務創造更多需求。

  • We also -- I think, as we indicated in our last call, we are trying to work with a couple of counterparties on potentially meaningful volume offtake for those international production for that international production. But that's all still in the works. It's still going to be largely tethered back to what happens with the policy environment.

    我們也——我認為,正如我們在上次電話會議中指出的那樣,我們正在努力與幾個交易對手合作,為這些國際產量爭取可能具有實際意義的批量承購。但這一切都還在籌備中。最終結果仍將很大程度上取決於政策環境的發展。

  • But we are incurring significant underutilization and cost headwinds because of what we're trying to do right now is figure out, let's create an option, let's evaluate what we continue to see in the market. And we've been sort of wearing this for over a year now. It was about a year ago when these tariffs came in place, and we started to throttle down kind of towards the end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and we've kind of run at a very low utilization rate to try to sort of buy some time to see how these tariffs ultimately get played out.

    但由於我們目前正在努力尋找解決方案,並評估我們在市場上持續看到的情況,因此我們面臨嚴重的利用率不足和成本阻力。我們穿這身衣服已經一年多了。大約一年前,這些關稅開始生效,我們在第二季末、第三季初開始放緩生產,並以非常低的利用率運行,試圖爭取一些時間,看看這些關稅最終會如何發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Strouse, JPMorgan.

    馬克‧斯特勞斯,摩根大通。

  • Mark Strouse - Analyst

    Mark Strouse - Analyst

  • Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking our questions. Within the last couple of months, there was an individual with a vast amount of resources that is talking about ramping up supply of US-based solar panel production over the coming years. Just curious if that is having any real impact on the conversations you're having with your customers, especially if you look out to later this decade?

    午安.謝謝您回答我們的問題。在過去的幾個月裡,有一位擁有大量資源的人士談到,未來幾年將增加美國太陽能板的生產供應。我只是好奇,這是否對您與客戶的對話產生了任何實際影響,特別是如果您展望本十年後期的情況?

  • And I've got a quick follow-up. Thanks.

    我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Look, obviously, very much aware of the announcement and the ambitions. From my understanding, a lot of that is not necessarily focused for kind of our utility scale market that we're primarily focused on. I think it's primarily to be captive for their own consumption for their own programs that they're envisioning. It's also out in our horizon.

    是的。顯然,他非常清楚這項聲明和這些目標。據我了解,其中許多內容並不一定針對我們主要關注的公用事業規模市場。我認為主要目的是為了滿足他們自己設想的計劃,以便更好地利用這些資源。它也在我們的視野之內。

  • And I think there's also a pretty strong realization of some pretty significant challenges to try to get to that type of scale. And if you're really thinking about this as fully vertically integrated all the way from polysilicon forward, you not only are trying to solve the constraint at, let's say, the cell level, you've got to think through how do you sell the wafer and how do you think through the polysilicon. And the capital investment to try to move all that forward is going to be pretty overwhelming.

    而且我認為大家也相當清楚地意識到,要達到那種規模,會面臨一些非常重大的挑戰。如果你真的想從多晶矽開始,完全垂直整合,那麼你不僅要解決比如說單元級別的限制,還要考慮如何銷售晶圓以及如何考慮多晶矽。而要推進這一切所需的資本投入將會非常巨大。

  • And the technical aspects around it as well of understanding freedom to operate issues. We've already talked about there are IP infringements all over the place within the crystalline silicon world, and everybody is going to stand up and try to protect their IP where it makes sense.

    以及與之相關的技術面,例如理解自由行動問題。我們已經討論過,晶體矽領域到處都存在知識產權侵權行為,每個人都會站出來,在合理的情況下保護自己的智慧財產權。

  • So it hasn't really impacted our conversations yet. I think if they got to a realization where you started to see sites being announced, actual equipment being purchased, operations being commenced, then I think you could -- maybe it starts to sort of inform our customers' views of other thoughts and ideas.

    所以目前為止,它還沒有真正影響我們的談話。我認為,如果他們意識到,開始公佈選址、購買實際設備、開始運營,那麼或許就能影響我們的客戶對其他想法和理念的看法。

  • But as of right now, it's having very little impact.

    但就目前而言,它幾乎沒有產生任何影響。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Mark, just one other comment around that. As you're well aware, the biggest constraint that we're seeing in the market for hyperscalers right now is access to power. And as we've just gone through the process of looking to site our new finishing line, the biggest constraint we faced around that was land with available power to connect.

    馬克,關於這一點,我還有一點要補充。如您所知,目前超大規模資料中心市場面臨的最大限制因素是電力供應。在我們剛完成新終點線選址的過程中,我們面臨的最大限制是需要有可用電力連接的土地。

  • So again, Mark mentioned, you've got kind of capital constraint, which even that could be overcome, IP constraints, just knowledge and know-how. You've also got the constraint of how you would power these facilities if you're trying to build to that scale, you'd be in the same constraint that the hyperscalers have today.

    所以,正如馬克所提到的,你們會面臨資金限制(但這也可以克服)、智慧財產權限制,以及知識和技術訣竅。如果你要建造如此大規模的設施,你還會面臨如何為這些設施供電的限制,你會面臨與如今超大規模資料中心營運商相同的限制。

  • Mark Strouse - Analyst

    Mark Strouse - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for that. That makes sense. And then I just want to ask a clarifying follow-up to Brian Lee's question earlier. Mark, when you said the $0.364 is for the domestic content, are you saying that that is the blended rate? So it would be a higher amount than that for the US domestic content average with whatever, $0.30 for international, or is that $0.364 how we should be thinking about the domestic content portion?

    好的。謝謝。這很有道理。然後,我想就布萊恩李之前提出的問題再補充說明一下。馬克,你說 0.364 美元是國產價格,你的意思是說這是混合價格嗎?所以,如果加上國際內容,金額會比美國國內內容的平均水平高一些,比如 0.30 美元,或者我們應該把國內內容部分看作 0.364 美元?

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So the way we -- and I tried to mention this a little bit last time. The way we actually price is we negotiate with the customer some number of points that they need, given their the already procured strategy around -- procurement strategy around the tracker in particular, and then what are the incremental points that they need relative to the window that they plan on putting the project into service.

    是的。所以我們——我上次也稍微提過這一點。我們實際的定價方式是,根據客戶已經制定的採購策略(特別是追蹤器的採購策略),與客戶協商他們需要的積分數量,然後根據他們計劃將項目投入使用的時間窗口,協商他們需要的增量積分數量。

  • And so we will negotiate a points construct, which then gives us the optionality to blend whatever percentage we can internationally. And we're in a pretty good balance between the domestic S7 and the domestic -- excuse me, international S7. We can optimize there pretty well, assuming we choose not to sell into the Indian market.

    因此,我們將協商一個積分制方案,這樣我們就可以選擇在國際範圍內盡可能地混合任何比例的積分。國內版 S7 和國內版——抱歉,是國際版 S7 之間達到了相當不錯的平衡。如果我們選擇不進軍印度市場,我們可以在那裡進行很好的優化。

  • Where we're a little bit more of misaligned is really with the only having, call it, 3 gigawatts of capacity for S6 in the US and then try to match that up with 7 gigawatts of international production, which makes it harder because you can't really blend that much international to achieve, let's say, a 30- or 40- or 50-point requirement that a customer has.

    我們目前存在一些偏差,主要是因為美國祇有 3 吉瓦的 S6 產能,而國際產能卻有 7 吉瓦,這就更難了,因為你無法真正將那麼多國際產能融合起來,以滿足客戶提出的 30、40 或 50 個點的要求。

  • Now, moving some of that finishing capacity in the US also brings in some domestic content. So that helps move that equation a little bit. But what I was trying to say that if you have no domestic content at all embedded into a blended price construct, you're going to see a much lower. So if I go out and say, okay, I want a customer to buy 500 megawatts of international only with no domestic content value.

    現在,將部分後加工產能轉移到美國,也帶來了一些本土內容。這樣就能稍微推動這個等式向前發展一些。但我想說的是,如果混合價格結構中完全沒有包含任何國產內容,那麼價格就會低得多。所以,如果我出去說,好的,我希望客戶購買 500 兆瓦的純國際電力,不包含任何國內成分價值。

  • And you may see some of that in some customers that are doing PTC project, as an example, because the uplift on the PTC is not as meaningful as it is on the ITC. Those prices are going to be lower. And I just want to make sure that's clear and that's understood that you could see a delta. I said $0.30 or somewhere in that range. If you're selling just a pure international S6 product into the US market, you would see a lower ASP clearing price.

    例如,您可能會在一些進行 PTC 專案的客戶中看到這種情況,因為 PTC 的提升不如 ITC 的提升那麼有意義。這些價格將會降低。我只是想確保這一點很清楚,並且大家理解,你們可能會看到一個增量。我說的是 0.30 美元或差不多這個價位。如果你只是向美國市場銷售純粹的國際版 S6 產品,你會看到 ASP 清算價格較低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Shen, Roth Capital Partners.

    Philip Shen,Roth Capital Partners。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Hey, guys, thanks for taking my questions. First one, just was wondering if you could give us a little more color on why no EPS guide for '26?

    嘿,各位,謝謝你們回答我的問題。首先,我想問一下,您能否詳細解釋為什麼 '26 沒有 EPS 指南?

  • And then secondly, in terms of the ASP implied for the 2026 guide, it seems like the US ASP might be a little bit low. I think in 2025, it was closer to $0.324, but the implied US ASP in the '26 guide seems to be closer to $0.308. So I was wondering if you might be able to give some color on that.

    其次,就 2026 年指南中隱含的平均售價而言,美國的平均售價似乎有點低。我認為2025年的價格應該更接近0.324美元,但2026年指南中隱含的美國平均售價似乎更接近0.308美元。所以我想請教一下您能否對此做一些解釋。

  • And then finally, on Oxford PV, can you share what kinds of efficiencies you're able to generate? What are you seeing in your test modules, if any? And then what's your sense of timing as to when commercial volumes could actually ramp? Thanks, guys.

    最後,關於牛津光電,您能否分享一下你們能夠達到的效率水準?你的測試模組中看到了什麼?如果有的話。那麼,您認為商業化生產規模真正能夠提升的時間點是什麼時候?謝謝各位。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So on the EPS piece, we're moving to guiding to EBITDA. We think it gives a better view of operational performance. It's better comparability year over year. And especially a year like this year, we've got significant costs associated with both underutilization of our Southeast Asia facilities as we're deliberately curtailing those, as Mark mentioned, waiting for an option around whether there's profitable capacity or profitable production to be had there to serve the market.

    是的。因此,關於每股盈餘 (EPS),我們將改為指導 EBITDA。我們認為它能更好地展現營運績效。年度間的可比性更好。尤其是像今年這樣的年份,由於我們有意削減東南亞工廠的產能利用率,導致我們產生了重大成本。正如馬克所提到的,我們正在等待一個選項,看看那裡是否有盈利的產能或盈利的生產來服務市場。

  • And we've got significant start-up costs as we're moving that equipment from Southeast Asia to the US. And so historically, we haven't done that around start-up and ramp production, but this is a little different where effectively taking tools we already have in the ground and idling them for a significant period of time. So I think it makes it more comparable.

    而且,由於我們要把設備從東南亞運到美國,所以需要投入大量的啟動成本。因此,從歷史上看,我們並沒有在啟動和擴大生產規模時這樣做,但這次的情況略有不同,實際上是將我們已經投入使用的工具閒置相當長的一段時間。所以我覺得這樣比較容易比較。

  • On the tax side, also, we've got potential challenges around Pillar 2 this year, which will make the tax number very noisy going down to EPS. So on a kind of core non-Pillar 2 basis, we expect very low tax expense for the year. But because the agreement has not yet been finalized, there's a potential chance we'll have to accrue significant Pillar 2 expense, which ultimately we don't believe will ever get realized on a cash basis. But until those agreements are finalized, we'd have to accrue that. So we think it helps us with comparability as well.

    在稅收方面,我們今年在第二支柱方面也面臨一些潛在挑戰,這將導致稅收數據在計算每股收益時波動較大。因此,從核心非支柱 2 的角度來看,我們預計今年的稅收支出將非常低。但由於協議尚未最終敲定,我們有可能不得不提列大量的第二支柱支出,而我們最終認為這些支出永遠不會以現金形式實現。但在這些協議最終達成之前,我們必須先累積這筆資金。所以我們認為這也有助於提高可比性。

  • On the ASP side, so I think your number is right, $0.308. That's -- if you look at what's in the backlog, it's around $0.30. So it's about what's in the backlog coming out of that ASP with a little bit of uplift relative to some adjusters we get around freight, around commodities.

    就平均售價而言,我認為你的數字是對的,0.308 美元。如果你看一下積壓訂單,大約是 0.30 美元。所以,這大約是積壓訂單中的平均售價加上一些運費和商品價格調整項目後的價格。

  • And then there's a little bit of upside on the tech side as well there. If you think about -- we mentioned on the adjustments going forward, there's about $600 million or about $0.03 a watt on average of adjusted value sitting aligned with the CuRe platform, and most of that we said will be realized '27, '28, which is when we'll start having much more CuRe product available to us.

    此外,科技領域也存在一些上漲空間。如果你想想——我們之前提到過未來的調整,與 CuRe 平台相關的調整後價值約為 6 億美元,或平均每瓦約 0.03 美元,我們說過其中大部分將在 2027 年、2028 年實現,屆時我們將開始有更多的 CuRe 產品可供我們使用。

  • So this year, we have limited CuRe production. And given the timing of our decision to run that CuRe relative to the notification timings in the contracts, we're going to see very limited upside from that this year. So that's why you're seeing that US ASP around 30.8%.

    所以今年,我們的 CuRe 產量有限。鑑於我們決定運行 CuRe 的時間與合約中的通知時間之間的關係,我們今年從中獲得的收益將非常有限。所以這就是為什麼你會看到美國平均售價在 30.8% 左右的原因。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think the other thing, Phil, when you're looking at your year on year, you have to remember that last year, as we realized throughout the year, a handful of terminations, obviously, the largest one being the Lightsource BP termination, which obviously impacts revenue, but you'd have to normalize, pull that out of your top line revenue and then do your math from that standpoint. But that clearly provided some incremental uplift to the reported ASP last year because of some of those terminations.

    菲爾,我認為還有一點,當你回顧去年的業績時,你必須記住,正如我們在過去一年中發現的那樣,去年有一些項目終止,其中最大的一個就是 Lightsource BP 的終止,這顯然會影響收入,但你必須進行標準化處理,將其從你的總收入中剔除,然後從這個角度進行計算。但顯然,由於部分人員離職,去年公佈的平均售價有所提升。

  • As it relates to the Oxford PV, or just our perovskite program. I mean, basically, what we're doing right now, Phil, is we have a development line where we're doing small form factor modules. So thinking they're like 60 centimeters by 20 centimeters or so. So these are actual fully functional small form factor modules that we're producing in an actual integrated production process and doing all of our kind of conversion of some of the efforts that we do in our advanced research, whether it's in California, whether it's in Sweden, and we're doing all that testing within our development line.

    就牛津光電專案而言,或僅僅是我們的鈣鈦礦專案而言。我的意思是,菲爾,基本上,我們現在正在做的是,我們有一條研發線,專門生產小型模組。所以我覺得它們大概是 60 公分乘 20 公分左右。所以這些是我們正在實際的整合生產過程中生產的、功能齊全的小型模組,我們將我們在先進研究中所做的一些努力(無論是在加利福尼亞還是在瑞典)都轉化成產品,並且我們在我們的開發生產線上進行所有這些測試。

  • And if you look at our -- as we said in the prepared remarks, if you look at our efficiencies and what we're seeing in stability, we're best-in-class from many, many ways, many different dimensions. So I feel good about where we are from a program standpoint.

    正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說,如果你看看我們的效率以及我們在穩定性方面所取得的成就,你會發現我們在很多方面、很多不同的維度上都是一流的。所以從專案角度來看,我對我們目前的進展感到滿意。

  • But there are still fundamental challenges that have to be addressed. And we are very good at understanding the nuances of thin films. We understand the issue of metal stability, right? We understand the impact of encapsulating the thin film to protect the thin film.

    但仍有一些根本性的挑戰需要解決。我們非常擅長理解薄膜的細微差別。我們了解金屬穩定性問題,對吧?我們了解對薄膜進行封裝以保護薄膜的影響。

  • So we have a number of what have been identified as best-in-class, in particular, Chinese perovskite product. And if you put those out into a test field as we have, first off, they'll even tell you in their literature that they give you do not expose the module to open circuit, which means effectively once you install it, it has to be immediately energized. And if you choose to expose it to open circuit, it degrades almost instantaneously in some cases.

    因此,我們有一些被公認為一流的產品,特別是中國產鈣鈦礦產品。如果你像我們一樣把這些模組放到測試場地,首先,他們甚至會在提供的資料中告訴你,不要讓模組暴露在開路狀態下,這意味著一旦你安裝了它,就必須立即通電。如果選擇將其暴露在開路狀態下,在某些情況下,它幾乎會立即劣化。

  • There's others that because their encapsulation is so poor that the film just starts to, over time, effectively pull apart, right? So there's a huge significant delamination that happens with the film and it can sustain itself over extended periods of time.

    還有一些薄膜,由於封裝品質太差,隨著時間的推移,薄膜會逐漸開始瓦解,對吧?因此,薄膜會發生嚴重的分層現象,並且可以在很長一段時間內保持這種狀態。

  • And so there's a lot of many factors -- many, many factors that factor into how do you commercialize the product. We are working on all of those dimensions. So our view is we need to think about the development, not just to drive the efficiency, also drive the attributes to a point where they're competitive and then to manufacture that in a way that creates an enduring product that can be into the field for 30-plus years and perform at attributes that are relatively close to the current thin film technology that we have, and then we can do that all in HVM and do that in a way that we can do it cost competitively.

    因此,有許多因素——很多很多因素——會影響產品的商業化方式。我們正在從所有這些方面著手。因此,我們的觀點是,我們需要考慮研發,不僅要提高效率,還要提升產品性能,使其具有競爭力,然後以一種能夠製造出持久耐用的產品的方式來生產,該產品可以在現場使用 30 年以上,並且其性能與我們目前擁有的薄膜技術相對接近,然後我們可以在大規模量產中實現這一切,並且以具有成本競爭力的方式實現這一切。

  • So there's many different things that we're working on in that regard, Phil. So I would just say we're pleased with where we are. We are -- our next phase is we will be investing. We've already started our procurement process to put it together a pilot line that will make full-size modules largely still for development purposes. We will deploy those modules in the field as well, some commercially with customers.

    菲爾,在這方面,我們正在研究很多不同的事情。所以我想說,我們對目前的狀況很滿意。下一步,我們將進行投資。我們已經開始採購流程,以建立一條試點生產線,生產全尺寸模組,但這些模組主要仍用於開發目的。我們還將在現場部署這些模組,其中一些將以商業形式交付給客戶。

  • And then as we evolve the development program, as we evolve the HVM issues in larger form factors because any time you scale from something that's, call it, 2.6 centimeters to something that is 2.5 square meters, there's issues that you're going to have to deal with through that scaling process and especially the uniformity of the film.

    隨著我們開發計畫的推進,隨著我們不斷改進大尺寸產品的HVM問題,因為任何時候當你從例如2.6厘米的東西放大到2.5平方米的東西時,你都必須在放大過程中處理一些問題,特別是薄膜的均勻性問題。

  • Once we have better informed around how well that's progressing, that will determine overall commercial readiness. But the entitlement here is an efficiency number that is 20%-plus. It's an LTR that is competitive, bifaciality that's, call it, 70% and a (inaudible) code that's somewhere in the mid-teens, which is better than we have now with cad tel. That's the aspiration of what we're trying to accomplish, but a lot of work between now and then.

    一旦我們對進展有了更清晰的了解,這將決定整體的商業化準備。但這裡所說的「權利」是指效率提升超過 20%。它具有競爭力的 LTR,雙面性約為 70%,代碼(聽不清楚)在十幾分之一左右,這比我們現在的 cad tel 要好。這就是我們努力想要達成的目標,但從現在到那時還有很多工作要做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Bagri, Citi.

    Vikram Bagri,花旗集團。

  • Vikram Bagri - Analyst

    Vikram Bagri - Analyst

  • Good evening everyone. I wanted to ask sort of a two-part question about India capacity and potential for cancellations. First on India, can you talk about the pricing environment? I was wondering if you can give us confidence that the sales in the market are viable, the pricing is stable and is expected to stay stable throughout the year. I understand there is no sizable spot market in the US, but is there a possibility some of that volume can be rerouted to the US given the 15% tariffs now in place?

    各位晚上好。我想問一個關於印度運力和潛在取消情況的兩部分問題。首先,關於印度,您能談談定價環境嗎?我想問的是,您能否讓我們確信市場上的銷售是可行的,價格是穩定的,並且預計全年都會保持穩定?我知道美國沒有規模較大的現貨市場,但考慮到目前15%的關稅,是否有可能將部分貨量轉移到美國?

  • And then finally, on India, it seems there is a lot of domestic capacity for panels being ramped up. How do you think about that capacity in the long term and the viability of that market for First Solar panels?

    最後,關於印度,似乎國內太陽能板產能正在大幅提升。您如何看待First Solar太陽能板的長期產能及其市場可行性?

  • And then as a follow-up on cancellations, you've historically mentioned pricing and EU players pulling back investments from renewables in the US market has created this risk of cancellations. With lower tariffs, how are the conversations going with customers? Is that risk much lower now? And if you can quantify how much of the contracts are potentially at risk of cancellations? Thank you.

    然後,關於取消訂單的問題,您之前提到過定價問題,歐盟企業撤回對美國再生能源市場的投資,這造成了取消訂單的風險。降低關稅後,與客戶的溝通進度如何?現在這種風險大大降低了嗎?如果你能量化有多少合約可能面臨取消風險就好了?謝謝。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right. I'll deal with the India question first, and I don't know if you got the tariff question. Okay. All right. So look, what I would say is right now, pricing is a point to look at in India, it is lower.

    好的。我先處理印度的問題,至於關稅問題,我不知道你是否已經了解了。好的。好的。所以,我想說的是,目前印度的定價是一個值得關注的點,它比較低。

  • What I would say though we're effectively realizing high-teens to low-20% gross margin. So if you want to look at it from a gross margin standpoint, I think you have to understand the cost of manufacturing in India is significantly lower than what the cost of manufacturing is in the US. So yes, lower pricing, but you basically balance that out with a lower cost of production and you're realizing kind of high-teens to low-20% type gross margin in India. So that's obviously where we stand right now.

    不過我想說的是,我們實際上實現的毛利率在10%到20%之間。所以,如果你想從毛利率的角度來看這個問題,我認為你必須明白,印度的製造成本遠低於美國的製造成本。所以,雖然價格較低,但基本上可以透過降低生產成本來平衡,在印度可以實現 10% 到 20% 左右的毛利率。所以,這顯然就是我們目前的處境。

  • And if you look across the horizon of what -- how would we optimize that production. And one of the things I think you said is the risk of overcapacity. Look, I agree that there is that risk, but there's also what's counterbalancing that and why there's also robust demand for our product and technology in India is that the approved list of model and manufacturers in India is now moving further upstream.

    如果放眼未來,我們會如何優化生產呢?我想你提到的其中一點就是產能過剩的風險。你看,我同意存在這種風險,但也有抵消這種風險的因素,而且我們的產品和技術在印度也有強勁的需求,因為印度的獲批型號和製造商名單現在正在向上游推進。

  • So it started off with the module itself now effectively for any project that is commissioned in April of this year or Q2, we will now have a cell requirement to be made domestically. And then there's also in -- they foreshadowed already a wafer requirement that effectively starts to come into effect in 2028.

    所以,一開始就是從模組本身開始的。現在,對於今年四月或第二季委託的任何項目,我們現在都將要求電池在國內生產。此外,他們還預告了一項晶圓要求,該要求實際上將於 2028 年開始生效。

  • And there's not existing vertically integrated manufacturing capability in India at this point in time. And I think what has seen -- what some of the manufacturers have seen is that it has become more challenging as they try to get into cells and then even more so if they try to get into the wafer. And then obviously, they're trying to figure out the poly side of the house as well. So a lot still needs to happen from that standpoint.

    目前印度還沒有垂直整合的製造能力。我認為一些製造商已經看到,當他們試圖將晶片植入電池時,難度越來越大;而當他們試圖將晶片植入晶圓時,難度就更大了。顯然,他們也在努力解決房屋的聚合物部分的問題。所以從這個角度來看,還有很多事情要做。

  • We also believe that from a cost standpoint, even if that vertically integrated supply chain were to happen, we will be cost advantaged with our vertically integrated manufacturing facility with everything being done within the four walls of a factory. So there's a cost advantage, we think. We also believe we have an energy advantage, which will be further enhanced when we implement our CuRe technology in India, which will start beginning of 2027. So I look across the horizon, I feel like I got a better product, better technology. I've got a better policy environment that should continue to advantage us in terms of India.

    我們也認為,從成本角度來看,即使垂直整合的供應鏈得以實現,我們憑藉垂直整合的製造工廠(所有工序都在工廠內完成)也將具有成本優勢。所以我們認為,這樣做有成本優勢。我們也相信我們在能源方面具有優勢,當我們在印度實施 CuRe 技術時,這一優勢將進一步增強,該技術將於 2027 年初開始實施。所以,當我放眼未來,我覺得我擁有了更好的產品,更好的技術。我擁有更好的政策環境,這應該會繼續使我們在對印關係上佔有優勢。

  • As a backdrop, to your point, we will continue to evaluate the construct of potentially bringing some of that product into the US market, and we'll do some of that with a view of creating some competitive tension into the domestic market because I don't want customers to believe that they don't have an alternative path other than selling into the domestic market. I'd like to be able to say, sure, at the right tariff construct, we can also redirect that product and blend it in with some S7 domestic product and still command pretty good pricing.

    作為背景,正如您所說,我們將繼續評估將部分產品引入美國市場的可能性,並且我們會以在國內市場製造一些競爭緊張局勢為目標來進行一些嘗試,因為我不希望客戶認為除了在國內市場銷售之外,他們沒有其他選擇。我希望能夠說,當然,在合適的關稅結構下,我們也可以重新調整該產品,並將其與一些 S7 國內產品混合,仍然可以獲得相當不錯的價格。

  • It's a little bit choppy to continue to move back and forth because today, we primarily make a fixed tilt product for the India market and then to have to convert the factory to make a tracker product for the US market or export market that's a little clunky and you incur some downtime and some cost and the transportation of bringing that product into the US is more expensive than we would like.

    繼續來回切換有點不方便,因為目前我們主要為印度市場生產固定傾斜產品,而要改造工廠生產面向美國市場或出口市場的跟踪產品,這有點笨拙,會造成一些停機時間和一些成本,而且將該產品運到美國的運輸成本也比我們預期的要高。

  • So ideally, if we can just harmonize and keep running that factory all out serving the domestic market, getting good ASPs, that's our preferred path, but we clearly would look at bringing some of that into the US market if the situation and the dynamics are right.

    所以理想情況下,如果我們能夠協調一致,繼續全力運作這家工廠,服務國內市場,獲得良好的平均售價,這是我們首選的途徑。但如果情況和動態合適,我們顯然會考慮將其中的一部分引入美國市場。

  • Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

    Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer

  • Vikram, you asked around cancellation risk and whether tariffs are playing a part there. Look, tariffs coming down are clearly helpful, but I don't think what you've been seeing on the cancellation side over the last year has really been tariff related. So the two aren't necessarily linked.

    Vikram,你問到了取消訂單的風險以及關稅是否在其中起了作用。你看,降低關稅顯然是有幫助的,但我認為過去一年裡你看到的取消訂單的情況實際上與關稅無關。所以這兩者不一定相關。

  • I mean, what we said before and what we've been seeing is more of a strategic shift by certain players, especially oil and gas and the European utility players to reallocate capital away from renewable development in the US into some of the more core business on oil and gas development or European utility development.

    我的意思是,正如我們之前所說,我們也看到了,某些參與者,特別是石油和天然氣公司以及歐洲公用事業公司,正在進行戰略轉變,將資金從美國的可再生能源開發重新分配到石油和天然氣開發或歐洲公用事業開發等更核心的業務中。

  • So where we've seen some of those players move away, we've seen others enter into the space in the US and pick up some of that slack and see an opportunity in taking over those projects to develop them. So it's hard to handicap the cancellation risk in the backlog. Sure, it could exist. I think historically, what we've seen has been potentially more risk around the international product, just given the value of domestic content.

    所以,我們看到一些參與者退出了市場,而另一些參與者則進入了美國市場,填補了這些空缺,並看到了接管這些計畫並進行開發的機會。因此,很難評估積壓訂單中的取消風險。當然,這有可能存在。我認為從歷史角度來看,考慮到國內內容的價值,國際產品可能面臨更大的風險。

  • If you look at today, the amount of international product sitting in our backlog is pretty small. You can see that by how much we're producing out of Southeast Asia this year relative to US product. And so that product has potentially been more challenged. I think the US demand has been strong. And even if there were cancellations, there are much more opportunity to move any terminated US product back into the US market.

    如果從目前的情況來看,我們積壓訂單中的國際產品數量相當少。從我們今年在東南亞的產量相對於美國產量的比例就能看出這一點。因此,該產品可能面臨更大的挑戰。我認為美國市場的需求一直很強勁。即使出現訂單取消的情況,也有很多機會將任何終止在美國銷售的產品重新推向美國市場。

  • I'd also say that clearly, we've been enforcing termination penalties and fees and making sure that we capture the value in the contract. So if there's a contractual obligation to someone to pay an amount for terminating those contracts, we've been enforcing that and we'll continue to do so.

    我還要明確指出,我們一直在執行終止合約的違約金和費用,並確保我們能夠收回合約中規定的價值。因此,如果存在因終止合約而向某人支付款項的合約義務,我們一直在執行該義務,並將繼續執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Kallo, Baird.

    本卡洛,貝爾德。

  • Ben Kallo - Analyst

    Ben Kallo - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thanks for putting me in here. I just wanted to square time to power is a big question or big emphasis out there. And I know you have so many moving pieces. And just bookings, I'm trying to square time to power and the need for electrons with how you guys are doing bookings with your different moving pieces right now. Thank you.

    嘿,夥計們。謝謝你讓我參與進來。我只是想澄清一下,時間與權力之間的關係是一個重要的問題,或者說是一個備受關注的問題。我知道你有很多事情要處理。還有預訂方面,我正在努力平衡時間、電力和電力需求,以及你們目前在預訂過程中涉及的各種複雜因素。謝謝。

  • Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, I think, Ben, I mean you got to remember, we've got a luxury -- we're kind of in a nice position. We've got 50 gigawatts of contracted volume that is going to carry us forward.

    聽著,本,我的意思是,你要記住,我們很幸運——我們處境相當不錯。我們已經簽訂了 50 吉瓦的合同,這將支撐我們繼續前進。

  • There's a clear sense of urgency from customers around execution and time to power. I mean, there's customers that obviously have safe harbor under Section 48 and they need to get their projects commissioned by the end of 2028. There's others that are safe harbor under 48 and those who are continuing to safe harbor because they can do that up through the middle of this year, we then get an opportunity to get projects done through the end of 2030. So there is quite a bit of demand.

    客戶對執行速度和供電時間有著明顯的緊迫感。我的意思是,有些客戶顯然享有第 48 條款的安全港,他們需要在 2028 年底前完成專案調試。還有一些項目在 48 年內屬於安全港項目,而那些繼續享受安全港待遇的項目則可以持續到今年年中,這樣我們就有機會在 2030 年底之前完成項目。所以需求量相當大。

  • Our customers are also dealing with a lot of angst of trying to figure out permitting issues and other things they're trying to do, financing issues, getting things in place for the current projects that they're executing against in construction and what have you.

    我們的客戶也面臨著許多焦慮,例如如何解決許可問題以及其他他們正在嘗試做的事情,融資問題,為他們正在執行的當前建設項目做好準備等等。

  • And then thinking through a longer position around across their portfolio, both earlier stage and then obviously, late-stage development. So that sense of urgency is there. People are being really creative looking to do more on-site generation, try to get out underneath the constraint of the interconnections.

    然後仔細考慮在其投資組合中採取更長期的策略,包括早期階段和後期開發階段。所以,緊迫感是存在的。人們正在發揮創造力,尋求更多現場生成,試圖擺脫互連的限制。

  • But if a customer does have an interconnection agreement, I mean, they're running hard and they're making sure they're lining up their modules as well as their EPC agreement and balance of system equipment to make sure they can execute on time.

    但如果客戶確實有互聯協議,我的意思是,他們會全力以赴,確保他們的模組、EPC 協議和系統平衡設備都安排妥當,以確保他們能夠按時執行。

  • So it's a clear catalyst. I also think it is helping us as we engage and we talk with customers around pricing as well.

    所以它顯然是一個催化劑。我認為這對我們與客戶溝通定價也很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    目前沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。您現在可以斷開連線了。