First Solar 的收益電話會議討論了其 2025 年第一季的財務業績、新關稅帶來的挑戰以及其長期前景。他們報告稱,合約積壓訂單量為 66.3 吉瓦,並且面臨國際製造設施的問題。儘管存在不確定性,但他們仍然對美國太陽能市場持樂觀態度。
該公司正在監控進口的電池和模組並倡導公平貿易行為。由於關稅和政策的不確定性,他們正在調整2025年的財務指引。該公司正在考慮各種策略來應對挑戰,包括潛在的設施閒置和生產水準的變化。他們也正在管理現金流、考慮出售信貸並評估關稅對東南亞資產的影響。
部分積壓訂單的潛在重新定價風險存在不確定性,但該公司專注於透明度和應對客戶挑戰。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to First Solar's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. This call is being webcast live on the investor section of First Solar's website and investor.firstsolar.com. All participants are in a listen-only mode, and please note that today's call is being recorded.
大家下午好,歡迎參加 First Solar 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將在 First Solar 網站的投資者專區和 investor.firstsolar.com 上進行網路直播。所有參與者都處於只聽模式,請注意今天的通話正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Byron Jeffers, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係主管拜倫·傑弗斯 (Byron Jeffers)。先生,請繼續。
Byron Jeffers - Head of Investor Relations
Byron Jeffers - Head of Investor Relations
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's earnings call. Joining me today are our Chief Executive Officer, Mark Widmar; and our Chief Financial Officer, Alex Bradley. During this call, we will review our financial performance for the quarter and discuss our business outlook for 2025. Following our remarks, we will open the call for questions.
下午好,感謝您參加今天的收益電話會議。今天與我一起參加的是我們的執行長馬克威德瑪 (Mark Widmar);以及我們的財務長 Alex Bradley。在本次電話會議中,我們將回顧本季的財務表現並討論 2025 年的業務展望。發言結束後,我們將開始提問。
Before we begin, please note that some statements made today are forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We undertake no obligation to update these statements due to new information or future events. For a discussion of factors that could cause these results to differ materially, please refer to today's earnings press release and our most recent annual report on Form 10-K as supplemented by our other filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-Q. You can find these documents on our website at investor.firstsolar.com.
在我們開始之前,請注意,今天做出的一些聲明是前瞻性的,涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致這些結果出現重大差異的因素的討論,請參閱今天的收益新聞稿和我們最新的 10-K 表年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件,包括我們最新的 10-Q 表。您可以在我們的網站 investor.firstsolar.com 上找到這些文件。
With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Widmar. Mark?
說完這些,我很高興將電話轉給我們的執行長馬克威德瑪 (Mark Widmar)。標記?
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. Beginning on slide 3, I will share some key highlights from Q1 2025. From a commercial perspective, since the previous earnings call, we have secured net bookings of 0.6 gigawatts at a base ASP of $0.305 per watt, excluding adjusters and India domestic sales. As a result, our contracted backlog today stands at 66.3 gigawatts.
下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。從第 3 張投影片開始,我將分享 2025 年第一季的一些主要亮點。從商業角度來看,自上次收益電話會議以來,我們已獲得 0.6 千兆瓦的淨預訂量,基本平均銷售價格為每瓦 0.305 美元,不包括調整商和印度國內銷售。因此,我們目前的合約積壓量為 66.3 千兆瓦。
In Q1, we recorded 2.9 gigawatts of module sales, which is in line with what we forecasted on the previous earnings call. Our Q1 earnings per diluted share came in below the low end of our guidance range at $1.95 per share, primarily due to a greater portion of our Q1 sales than forecast being international versus US product. Alex will provide further details regarding our financial results later in the call.
第一季度,我們的組件銷售量為 2.9 千兆瓦,與我們上次收益電話會議的預測一致。我們第一季的每股攤薄收益低於我們指引範圍的低端,為每股 1.95 美元,主要是因為我們第一季的銷售額中,國際產品比例高於預測值,而美國產品比例則高於預測值。亞歷克斯將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。
From a manufacturing perspective, we produced 4.0 gigawatts in Q1, comprised of 2 gigawatts of Series 6 and 2 gigawatts of Series 7 modules. We completed a limited commercial production run of modules employing our CuRe technology from our lead line in Ohio during the quarter and continued to deploy these modules in both commercial and field test sites. Initial data indicates the enhanced energy profile expected from the superior temperature response and improved bifaciality of our CuRe technology is being realized. Furthermore, the laboratory-accelerated life testing is confirming the industry's leading annual degradation rate.
從製造角度來看,我們在第一季生產了 4.0 千兆瓦,其中包括 2 千兆瓦的 6 系列模組和 2 千兆瓦的 7 系列模組。本季度,我們在俄亥俄州的領先生產線上完成了採用 CuRe 技術的模組的有限商業生產運行,並繼續在商業和現場測試站點部署這些模組。初步數據表明,我們 CuRe 技術的卓越溫度響應和改進的雙面性所期望的增強能量分佈正在實現。此外,實驗室加速壽命測試證實了業界領先的年衰減率。
Our domestic capacity expansion has advanced during the quarter as we continue the ramp of our Alabama factory. At our Louisiana facility, construction of the building was completed, and equipment installation and commissioning is fully underway. The facility remains on track to begin commercial operation in the second half of this year, and once ramped, it is expected to increase our US nameplate manufacturing capacity to over 15 -- excuse me, over 14 gigawatts by 2026.
隨著我們繼續擴大阿拉巴馬州工廠的產能,本季我們的國內產能擴張也取得了進展。在我們位於路易斯安那州的工廠,大樓建設已經完成,設備安裝和調試正在全面進行中。該工廠仍有望在今年下半年開始商業運營,一旦投入使用,預計到 2026 年,我們的美國額定製造能力將提高到 15 千兆瓦以上——不好意思,是 14 千兆瓦以上。
Turning to slide 4, I would like to focus on recent policy and trade developments. We continue to experience significant near-term uncertainty from the budget reconciliation process and its potential impact on the Inflation Reduction Act, clean energy tax credits, and now from the evolving trade landscape as the administration implements its new tariff initiatives. However, despite these near-term challenges, we believe on balance the political and trade environment continues to be overall long-term favorable from a First Solar perspective. While the implementation of certain new trade policies was a possibility with the change in administration, the new tariff regime imposed earlier this month has introduced significant challenges to 2025 that were not known at the start of the year.
轉到投影片 4,我想重點介紹最近的政策和貿易發展。我們將繼續經歷巨大的短期不確定性,包括預算協調過程及其對《通膨削減法案》和清潔能源稅收抵免的潛在影響,以及政府實施新關稅舉措後不斷變化的貿易格局。然而,儘管存在這些短期挑戰,但我們相信,從第一個太陽能的角度來看,總體而言,政治和貿易環境長期來看仍然有利。雖然隨著政府的更迭,某些新的貿易政策有可能實施,但本月稍早實施的新關稅制度為 2025 年帶來了年初未曾預料到的重大挑戰。
I will focus on outlining the operational challenges that tariff poses for First Solar, while Alex will later discuss the detailed implications to our full-year guidance. We have elected to update our guidance range with an upper end that assumes the current applicable 10% universal tariff structure remains in place throughout the year. The lower end assumes both a range of non-tariff related risks to our operations as well as implications from the previously announced but temporarily suspended country-specific reciprocal tariff structure.
我將重點概述關稅給 First Solar 帶來的營運挑戰,而 Alex 稍後將討論對我們全年指導的具體影響。我們選擇更新我們的指導範圍,其上限假設目前適用的 10% 通用關稅結構全年保持不變。較低端既承擔了我們營運中一系列非關稅相關風險,也承擔了先前宣布但暫時中止的國家特定互惠關稅結構的影響。
We currently operate international manufacturing in India to serve both the India and US market and in Malaysia and Vietnam, which almost exclusively serve the US market. The President's implementation of reciprocal tariffs earlier this month with rates of 26%, 24%, and 46% applicable to India, Malaysia, and Vietnam respectively creates a significant economic headwind for our manufacturing facilities in these countries selling into the US market. While the subsequent 90-day pause to the effectiveness of these tariffs and the application of a 10% universal tariff partially mitigates the impact, the lower rate would still result in a meaningful adverse gross margin impact to sales into the United States, absent the duty being fully passed through to the module buyer.
我們目前在印度開展國際製造業務,服務於印度和美國市場,而在馬來西亞和越南,我們幾乎完全服務於美國市場。總統本月初實施了對印度、馬來西亞和越南分別徵收 26%、24% 和 46% 的互惠關稅,這對我們在這些國家製造工廠向美國市場銷售產品造成了重大的經濟阻力。雖然隨後暫停實施這些關稅的 90 天以及適用 10% 的普遍關稅可以部分緩解影響,但如果關稅不能完全轉嫁給組件買家,較低的稅率仍將對美國市場的銷售產生重大不利的毛利率影響。
In addition, the uncertainty surrounding whether the reciprocal tariffs will be reinstituted after this 90-day pause or whether the pause will be indefinite or whether a different tariff regime will be put in place has created a challenge to quantifying the precise tariff rate that would be applied to our module shipments into and beyond the second half of this year. Our sales contract for international volume shipped to the United States typically include provisions that are intended to mitigate the adverse gross margin impact from changes in law due to the implementation of tariffs on modules. These provisions, which may be invoked at First Solar's discretion, come in a variety of types, including some where First Solar may terminate the contract if it chooses not to absorb the new tariffs. Others, either the customer is required to absorb or First Solar and the customer is required to share up to a certain amount of the tariff before either party may terminate. And others, which represent the majority of these contracts where a negotiated period is contractually required for First Solar and the customer to discuss the allocation of tariff risk before either party may terminate.
此外,圍繞互惠關稅是否會在90天的暫停期後恢復、暫停期是否會無限期、或者是否會實施不同的關稅制度的不確定性,對量化今年下半年及以後適用於我們組件出貨量的準確關稅稅率帶來了挑戰。我們針對運往美國的國際貨物銷售合約通常包含旨在減輕因實施模組關稅而導致的法律變更對毛利率產生不利影響的條款。這些條款有多種類型,First Solar 可自行決定是否援引,其中包括如果 First Solar 選擇不接受新關稅,First Solar 可以終止合約。其他情況,要麼要求客戶承擔一定金額的電價,要麼要求 First Solar 和客戶分擔一定數額的電價,之後任何一方均可終止合約。其他合約佔大多數,其中合約要求 First Solar 和客戶在任意一方終止合約之前約定一段協商期限來討論關稅風險的分配。
To the extent the contract is terminated on the basis of these provisions, the agreement would effectively unwind with neither the customer nor First Solar being responsible for termination payment, resulting in a corresponding reduction to our backlog as well as return to the customer of any related deposits. These provisions are intended to protect First Solar in the event of changes in law related to tariffs that pose significant economic risk to us, and that could otherwise force First Solar to transact at a loss.
如果根據這些規定終止合同,則協議將有效解除,客戶和 First Solar 均不負責終止付款,從而相應減少我們的積壓訂單並向客戶退還任何相關押金。這些規定旨在保護 First Solar,以防與關稅相關的法律發生變化,從而給我們帶來重大的經濟風險,並可能迫使 First Solar 進行虧損交易。
With respect to our overall backlog of 66.1 gigawatts as of March 31, 2025, we have approximately 13.9 gigawatts of forward contracts for delivery of international product into the United States. After accounting for the remaining volumes sold in 2025, at the low end of our revised guidance range that Alex will later discuss, there remains a forecasted year-end net 12 gigawatts of international product in the backlog that may be terminated based on these tariff-related provisions. With an ASP below the backlog average and after accounting for lower production costs, but significantly higher sales freight, including port-related costs, warehousing and storage associated with the international product, the profitability of this portion of our backlog is below the overall backlog average. Note, if this First Solar elects to absorb the tariffs cost beyond its contractual obligation, no termination right exists, and the volume will remain in the backlog.
截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,我們的總積壓訂單為 66.1 千兆瓦,其中約有 13.9 千兆瓦的遠期合約用於向美國交付國際產品。在計算了 2025 年剩餘的銷售量之後,按照我們修訂後的指導範圍的低端(Alex 稍後將討論),預計年底仍有 12 千兆瓦的國際產品積壓,可能會根據這些與關稅相關的規定終止。由於平均售價低於積壓訂單平均值,且考慮到生產成本較低,但銷售運費明顯較高,包括港口相關成本、與國際產品相關的倉儲和存儲費用,這部分積壓訂單的盈利能力低於整體積壓訂單平均值。請注意,如果 First Solar 選擇承擔超出其合約義務的關稅成本,則不存在終止權,且該數量仍將保留在積壓訂單中。
Furthermore, with respect to our module contracts for delivery of product from our US facilities, module tariffs are not applicable and therefore is not impacted to our contracted backlog with respect to this volume. From an allocation standpoint, our ability to optimize our US production with our international production to support our customers' qualifications of the domestic content ITC bonus may be constrained under the new tariff regime. As we may not be in a position to utilize our currently available international production capacity, absent customers' willingness to absorb or meaningfully share the increased tariff exposure.
此外,就我們從美國工廠交付產品的模組合約而言,模組關稅不適用,因此不會對我們在這一數量上的合約積壓產生影響。從分配的角度來看,在新的關稅制度下,我們優化美國生產和國際生產以支持客戶獲得國內內容 ITC 獎金資格的能力可能會受到限制。由於我們可能無法利用我們目前可用的國際生產能力,缺乏客戶承擔或有效分擔增加的關稅風險的意願。
Our customers' willingness to bear some or all of the tariff costs beyond this module contracted obligation must be considered in the contents of the overall project-related cost increases from the new tariffs, including not just with respect to the modules, but also tracker, inverters, transformers, and other imported equipment. Given the majority of the BESS components with some dependency on Chinese supply chain, solar plus storage projects in particular may face significantly increased costs. Given these headwinds, we expect to pivot our India facility away from exports to the US and towards producing more product for the domestic India market.
在新關稅導致的整體專案相關成本增加的內容中,必須考慮我們的客戶是否願意承擔超出該模組合約義務的部分或全部關稅成本,這不僅包括模組成本,還包括追蹤器、逆變器、變壓器和其他進口設備成本。鑑於大多數電池儲能係統 (BESS) 組件都依賴中國供應鏈,因此太陽能加儲能專案的成本可能會大幅增加。鑑於這些不利因素,我們預計將把印度工廠的重點從出口到美國轉向為印度國內市場生產更多產品。
With regards to the impact of new tariffs on our Malaysia and Vietnam factories, we will continue to evaluate best options to optimize production across these sites in a potentially reduced US demand environment for nondomestic product but are mindful that we may need to further reduce or idle production at one or both of these locations, especially if the announced reciprocal tariffs are put in place. That said, despite these near-term challenges presented by the new tariff regime, we believe the long-term outlook for solar demand, particularly in our core US market remains strong, and that First Solar remains well positioned to serve this demand. This belief is based on our unique profile of First Solar compared to its peers.
關於新關稅對我們馬來西亞和越南工廠的影響,我們將繼續評估最佳方案,以在美國對非國內產品需求可能減少的環境下優化這些工廠的生產,但我們注意到,我們可能需要進一步減少或停產其中一個或兩個工廠的生產,特別是如果宣布的互惠關稅到位的話。儘管如此,儘管新的關稅制度帶來了這些短期挑戰,但我們相信太陽能需求的長期前景,特別是在我們的核心美國市場,仍然強勁,而且 First Solar 仍然能夠很好地滿足這一需求。這一信念是基於我們對 First Solar 與其他同行相比的獨特看法。
We are the only US-headquartered PV manufacturer of scale. And by the end of this year, we will be the only one with a fully vertically integrated US solar manufacturing presence across three states, including a large domestic supply chain, not just in Ohio, Alabama, and Louisiana, but across states such as Wyoming, Utah, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, among others.
我們是唯一一家總部位於美國的規模化光電製造商。到今年年底,我們將成為唯一一家在三個州擁有完全垂直整合的美國太陽能製造業務的公司,其中包括一個大型國內供應鏈,不僅在俄亥俄州、阿拉巴馬州和路易斯安那州,還橫跨懷俄明州、猶他州、印第安納州、伊利諾伊州、密西根州和賓夕法尼亞州等州。
As we've mentioned before, by year-end, our US presence alone is projected to support over 30,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs across the country, representing almost $2.8 billion in annual payroll. Our powerful contribution to the US economy is due to our differentiated proprietary thin-film technology but is also dependent in part on a level playing field given the unfair and illegal trading practices of so many in the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain. As we've engaged with political leaders over the course of the year, and as recent developments have demonstrated, we believe there is recognition among politicians, policymakers and other authorities of the need to address these unfair practices as well as the criticality of maintaining an industrial policy that allows high-value solar manufacturing to grow and thrive in the United States and contributes to our energy and national security.
正如我們之前提到的,到年底,僅我們在美國的業務預計將在全國範圍內支持超過 30,000 個直接、間接和衍生就業崗位,相當於每年近 28 億美元的工資總額。我們對美國經濟的巨大貢獻歸功於我們差異化的專有薄膜技術,但考慮到中國晶體矽供應鏈中許多企業存在不公平和非法的貿易行為,這在一定程度上也取決於公平的競爭環境。正如我們在過去一年中與政治領導人接觸一樣,以及最近的事態發展所表明的那樣,我們相信,政治家、政策制定者和其他當局已經認識到解決這些不公平做法的必要性,以及維持允許高價值太陽能製造業在美國發展壯大並為我們的能源和國家安全做出貢獻的產業政策的重要性。
One example of this recognition is the recent final determination results in the AD/CVD case known as Solar 3, addressing illegal dumping and subsidization by the Chinese headquartered companies operating in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
這種認知的一個例子是最近對被稱為 Solar 3 的反傾銷/反補貼案的最終裁定結果,該案涉及總部位於柬埔寨、馬來西亞、泰國和越南的中國公司的非法傾銷和補貼。
Last week, the Commerce department announced generally substantial AD/CVD duties across all four of these Southeast Asian countries, which are generally retroactive and stacked on top of the existing Section 201 tariff regime and the 10% universal tariff rate currently being applied. This result reflects what we have known that the unfair practice by Chinese headquartered solar companies put American manufacturers and American Jobs at risk, and the enforcement of the rule of law is essential to securing our manufacturing base and our domestic energy security. That said, while we are pleased with the results of Solar 3 and applaud the professionalism and tireless work of the commerce department, we're also well aware that the Chinese are shifting production to lower tariff regions in order to take advantage of our trade laws.
上週,美國商務部宣布對這四個東南亞國家徵收普遍較高的反傾銷和反補貼稅,這些關稅通常具有追溯力,並且是在現有的第 201 條關稅制度和目前適用的 10% 普遍關稅稅率之上徵收的。這一結果反映了我們所知道的事實,即總部位於中國的太陽能公司的不公平做法使美國製造商和美國就業面臨風險,而法治的實施對於確保我們的製造業基礎和國內能源安全至關重要。儘管如此,雖然我們對 Solar 3 的結果感到滿意,並對商務部的專業精神和不懈努力表示讚賞,但我們也清楚地知道,中國人正在將生產轉移到關稅較低的地區,以利用我們的貿易法。
Trade data published since our previous earnings call further demonstrates the surge trend of imported cells and modules from certain countries, including Laos and Indonesia when compared to the same period a year ago. We have no doubt that these Chinese manufacturers are also seeking to establish production in other regions around the world, such as Saudi Arabia, forcing us into a continued game of whack a mole. The American Alliance of Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, of which we are a member, continues to monitor this data and as noted on our previous earnings call, all trade remedy options remain on the table, including initiating a new anti-dumping and countervailing duties case directed towards those countries where the data is supportive. While it's time consuming and resource intensive, First Solar will continue to engage in trade actions as long as is necessary to support a level playing field and ensure compliance with existing trade laws. And we will not hesitate to pursue a critical circumstances determination that if imposed any new tariffs are retroactive.
自我們上次收益電話會議以來發布的貿易數據進一步表明,與去年同期相比,從寮國和印尼等某些國家進口的電池和組件呈激增趨勢。我們毫不懷疑,這些中國製造商也在尋求在世界其他地區建立生產基地,例如沙烏地阿拉伯,這將迫使我們繼續陷入打地鼠的遊戲。我們所屬的美國太陽能製造貿易委員會聯盟將繼續監測這些數據,並且正如我們上次收益電話會議中所指出的,所有貿易救濟措施選項仍在考慮之中,包括針對數據支持的國家發起新的反傾銷和反補貼稅案件。儘管這很耗時且耗費資源,但只要有必要,First Solar 將繼續參與貿易行動,以支持公平的競爭環境並確保遵守現有的貿易法。我們將毫不猶豫地進行緊急狀況判定,即如果徵收任何新關稅,則其具有追溯力。
In addition, we, together with like-minded allies and advocates in Washington across numerous industries, not just solar, continue to encourage legislation, such as the level leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0, which would combat repeat offenders by making it easier for petitioners to bring new cases where production moves to another country in an effort to evade tariffs that the level playing field is a key aspect of the Chinese unfair practices playbook. This legislation, which was reintroduced at the end of February of this year and which was bipartisan, would also go a long way towards strengthening and monetizing US trade remedy laws and ensuring that remaining effective tools to fight against unfair trade practices and protect Americans.
此外,我們與華盛頓眾多行業(不僅僅是太陽能行業)志同道合的盟友和倡導者一起,繼續鼓勵立法,例如公平競爭法案 2.0,該法案將通過使請願者更容易提起新案件來打擊慣犯,即在生產轉移到另一個國家以逃避關稅的情況下,公平競爭是中國不公平做法劇本的一個關鍵方面。這項於今年二月底重新提出的、獲得兩黨支持的法案也將大大加強美國貿易救濟法的效力並將其貨幣化,確保剩餘的有效工具能夠打擊不公平貿易行為並保護美國人的安全。
Turning to industrial policy, while ultimately the outcome of the budget reconciliation process will determine the fate of critical supply chain initiatives, such as the 45X advanced manufacturing tax credit, and demand side incentives such as the investment and production tax credit, or ITC and PTC, as we continue to engage with the administration and members of Congress on trade and industrial policy, we are encouraged by the response we are receiving on our message. Specifically, we continue to advocate for maintaining these key tax policies, particularly with modifications such as the foreign entity of concern or FEOC provision, which will prevent Chinese companies from receiving US taxpayersâ dollars.
談到產業政策,雖然預算協調過程的結果最終將決定關鍵供應鏈舉措的命運,例如 45X 先進製造業稅收抵免,以及需求方激勵措施,例如投資和生產稅收抵免或 ITC 和 PTC,但隨著我們繼續與政府和國會議員就貿易和產業政策進行接觸,我們對收到的信息的回應感到鼓舞。具體來說,我們繼續主張維持這些關鍵的稅收政策,特別是對關注的外國實體或 FEOC 條款等進行修改,這將阻止中國公司獲得美國納稅人的錢。
We also continue to advocate for strengthening the domestic content provision to make ITC and PTC eligible contingent on the use of high-value domestic content product produced in America. We believe these modifications to clean energy tax credits would provide significant US government budgetary savings support the administration's efforts to make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and would represent major steps forward towards mitigating the risk of America's energy supply chain being concentrated in adversary foreign countries.
我們也將繼續倡導加強國內成分條款,使 ITC 和 PTC 資格取決於使用在美國生產的高價值國內成分產品。我們相信,對清潔能源稅收抵免的這些修改將為美國政府節省大量預算,支持政府使《減稅與就業法案》永久化的努力,並將朝著降低美國能源供應鏈集中在敵對國家的風險邁出重要一步。
We are pleased to see a growing number of Republican policymakers in both the House and the Senate recognize the value of preserving existing tax credits, such as 45X and the ITC and PTC. We recognize that these incentives help in their words, spur new manufacturing investment and ensure certainty for businesses that have already made meaningful U.S. investments. They also recognize that doing so would reduce utility bills for American consumers. The imperative of affordable, reliable electricity for American households and small businesses is top of mind, not just for politicians, but for leaders of American utilities as well.
我們很高興看到眾議院和參議院中越來越多的共和黨政策制定者認識到保留現有稅收抵免的價值,例如 45X、ITC 和 PTC。我們認識到,這些激勵措施實際上有助於刺激新的製造業投資,並確保已經在美國進行重大投資的企業的確定性。他們也意識到這樣做可以減少美國消費者的水電費。為美國家庭和小型企業提供可負擔的、可靠的電力是首要考慮的問題,不僅對政客來說如此,對美國公用事業的領導人也是如此。
Recent analysis released by the National Electrical Manufacturing Association projected the US electricity demand will grow 50% by 2050 or 2% annually, with data center energy consumption growing by 300% over the next 10 years.
美國國家電氣製造協會最近發布的分析預測,到 2050 年,美國電力需求將增加 50%,即每年增長 2%,而未來 10 年資料中心能源消耗將增加 300%。
In our recent discussions with several CEOs of some of the nation's leading utilities, these leaders recognize the reality of the near-term significant growth in the US energy demand, and share our view that solar has a critical place in an all the above power generation strategy, where a diversified portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, hydro, solar with energy storage and other technologies work together to power our nation to prosperity. They have shared with us that they are lending their influential voice to continue to advocate for maintaining clean energy tax credits, and the transferability provisions associated with them as doing so will enable greater solar generation deployment, more quickly and at lower cost than traditional forms of generation to help address the immediate power generation need and help mitigate potentially rising ratepayer electricity cost.
在我們最近與美國一些主要公用事業公司的執行長進行的討論中,這些領導人認識到美國能源需求近期大幅增長的現實,並同意我們的觀點,即太陽能在上述所有發電戰略中佔有重要地位,在該戰略中,天然氣、核能、水力發電、太陽能與儲能以及其他技術的多元化組合共同為我們的國家繁榮提供動力。他們告訴我們,他們正在發揮影響力,繼續倡導維持清潔能源稅收抵免,以及與之相關的可轉讓性條款,因為這樣做將能夠實現更大的太陽能發電部署,比傳統發電方式更快、成本更低,有助於解決迫切的發電需求,並有助於減輕潛在納稅人電力成本的上升。
There's plenty of evidence supporting the case with solar as a prominent component of the electricity generation mix. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, markets where some of the country's highest level of utility scale solar deployment has consumer electricity bills that were between 8% and 24% lower than the national average in January of 2025.
有大量證據支持太陽能是發電結構的重要組成部分。德州、佛羅裡達州、北卡羅來納州和內華達州是全美公用事業規模太陽能部署水準最高的市場,2025 年 1 月,這些市場的消費者電費比全國平均低 8% 至 24%。
While the new tariff regime has introduced a new source of uncertainty in near-term product development timelines, we believe that it is unlikely to significantly impact U.S. load growth fundamentals. As the country's top grid operators testified during the March hearing by the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, there is still an urgent need to not just maintain but to add capacity to meet significant demand growth. America leadership in AI, cryptocurrency and reshoring manufacturing needs abundant cost-competitive electricity generation. Absent new generation capacity coming online, there risks not being enough electricity to power these strategically important industries to their full potential before the current administration ends.
雖然新的關稅制度為近期產品開發時間表帶來了新的不確定性,但我們認為它不太可能對美國負荷成長基本面產生重大影響。正如該國頂級電網營運商在 3 月眾議院能源和商業能源小組委員會聽證會上所作證的那樣,仍然迫切需要不僅維持現有容量,而且增加容量以滿足大幅增長的需求。美國在人工智慧、加密貨幣和製造業回流方面的領導地位需要充足的、具有成本競爭力的電力生產。如果沒有新的發電能力投入使用,在本屆政府任期結束之前,這些具有戰略意義的產業就有可能沒有足夠的電力來充分發揮其潛力。
With 92% of the US interconnection queue being comprised of renewables, solar is the fastest form of new generation, the current ITC and PTC regime, which together with domestic content bonus, drives competitive solar PPA pricing and First Solar with its uniquely vertically integrated US manufacturing process that critically features a domestically produced cell supported largely by domestic value chain remains, in our view, the vendor of choice to enable development partners to qualify for domestic content bonus, especially with the annually escalating domestic content points requirement. Continued policy uncertainty, included with the new announced Universal and reciprocal tariffs may result in delays to some announced domestic wafer and cell manufacturing. Given the multiyear lead time required to build and commission new factories, the uncertain environment gives First Solar the ability to leverage another one of our competitive differentiators: delivering on our commitments to our customers.
美國 92% 的互連隊列由再生能源組成,太陽能是新一代發電方式中最快的形式,當前的 ITC 和 PTC 制度與國內成分獎勵相結合,推動了具有競爭力的太陽能 PPA 定價,而 First Solar憑藉其獨特的垂直整合美國製造流程(關鍵特點是國內生產的電池主要由國內價值鏈支持),在我們看來,它仍然是使開發合作夥伴有資格獲得國內成分獎勵的首選供應商,尤其是在國內成分點要求逐年提高的情況下。持續的政策不確定性,包括新宣布的普遍關稅和互惠關稅,可能會導致一些已宣布的國內晶圓和電池製造項目延遲。鑑於建造和調試新工廠需要多年的準備時間,不確定的環境使 First Solar 能夠利用我們的另一個競爭優勢:履行對客戶的承諾。
This differentiation is particularly valued by sophisticated developers seeking to secure module pricing and delivery certainty early in their project time lines.
對於那些希望在專案早期確保模組定價和交付確定性的成熟開發人員來說,這種差異尤其受到重視。
Through long-dated module sale contract, we believe First Solar's established US manufacturing presence provides greater certainty of delivery and pricing when compared to other prospects and speculative sources of supply. Furthermore, given First Solar's profile, as a US company, any future domestic capacity expansion would be unencumbered by the prospects of FEOC legislation a concept based on discussions in Washington, DC, and elsewhere has been favorably received by certain members of the administration and Congress, and we believe must be factored into capital commitment decisions by the large majority of our prospective domestic competitors. This consideration is particularly predominant in the industry where these competitors are overwhelmingly Chinese owned or controlled.
透過長期模組銷售合同,我們相信,與其他潛在和投機供應來源相比,First Solar 在美國建立的製造業務能夠提供更大的交付和定價確定性。此外,鑑於 First Solar 作為一家美國公司的情況,任何未來國內產能擴張都不會受到 FEOC 立法前景的阻礙,這一概念基於華盛頓特區和其他地方的討論,得到了政府和國會某些成員的好評,我們認為,我們絕大多數潛在國內競爭對手在做出資本承諾決策時都必須考慮到這一點。在這些競爭對手絕大多數由中國人擁有或控制的產業中,這種考量尤其突出。
Another factor which may further prevent manufacturers and their financing parties from having the clarity necessary to make capital and investment decisions is the fact that public reporting indicates that the reconciliation process and therefore, the fate of existing clean energy tax credits under the inflation Reduction Act may not be known until late 2025 or perhaps not until some point in 2026, particularly if a scenario where addressing tax policy is delayed to a second reconciliation bill. The impact is compounded when you further consider the fact that the Section 45X manufacturing tax credit begin to phase out at the end of the decade, reducing the window of availability for these credits for factories that are not operating. Our industry-leading established US presence provides further competitive advantages under the current tariff environment.
另一個可能進一步阻礙製造商及其融資方獲得做出資本和投資決策所需的清晰度的因素是,公開報告表明,協調過程以及通貨膨脹削減法案下現有清潔能源稅收抵免的命運可能要到 2025 年底或 2026 年某個時候才能知道,特別是如果解決稅收政策被推遲到第二份協調法案的情況下。如果進一步考慮到第 45X 條製造業稅收抵免將在十年末開始逐步取消,從而減少未營運工廠獲得這些抵免的機會,那麼影響就會更加嚴重。我們在美國行業領先的地位在當前關稅環境下提供了進一步的競爭優勢。
Over the past several years, we have invested heavily in a largely domestic supply chain, particularly as it relates to high-value aspects of our bill of material, such as glass and steel, where we have entered into long-term contracts with domestic suppliers. It's our estimation that any new crystalline silicon competition, would likely have to import significant aspects of their bill of material to support US production, particularly with respect to pattern glass, which currently does not have any domestic source of supply, and aluminum, which is domestically supply constrained and priced at a significant premium to imports.
過去幾年來,我們大力投資國內供應鏈,特別是涉及玻璃和鋼材等物料清單中高價值部分,我們已與國內供應商簽訂了長期合約。我們估計,任何新的晶體矽競爭對手都可能需要進口大量材料來支持美國的生產,特別是壓花玻璃和鋁,前者目前沒有任何國內供應來源,後者國內供應受限,且價格遠高於進口價。
In a rational market, these BOM cost increases would be expected to drive higher pricing for domestically produced competitor products. In summary, while we are facing anticipated near-term challenges following the imposition of the April tariff regime. We remain confident in the long-term prospects for First Solar in terms of the US solar energy demand and First Solar's ability to leverage its unique profile and competitive differentiation to serve this demand. Through this confidence, we must be tethered to the continued enforcement and strengthening of the US trade laws and supportive of industrial policy given the irrational and illegal Chinese trade practices.
在理性的市場中,這些 BOM 成本的增加預計會推高國產競爭產品的價格。總而言之,四月關稅制度實施後,我們面臨預期的短期挑戰。就美國太陽能需求以及 First Solar 利用其獨特優勢和競爭優勢來滿足這一需求的能力而言,我們對 First Solar 的長期前景仍然充滿信心。透過這種信心,我們必須堅定不移地執行和加強美國貿易法,並支持針對中國不合理和非法貿易行為的產業政策。
This confidence is based on our profile as America's largest and most established domestic solar module manufacturer, its only fully vertically integrated producer, our significant network of domestic supply chain vendors, our proprietary CadTel-based semiconductor that is not beholden to the Chinese crystalline silicon industry, and our ability to enable prospects -- aspects of the administration's platform of reshoring American manufacturing and supporting the powering of the next generation of critical industries.
這種信心基於我們作為美國最大、最成熟的國內太陽能電池組件製造商、唯一完全垂直整合的生產商的地位、我們龐大的國內供應鏈供應商網絡、我們不受中國晶體矽行業束縛的專有 CadTel 半導體,以及我們實現前景的能力——這是政府將美國製造業回流和支持下一代關鍵發展的平台的方面。
I'll now turn the call over to Alex who will discuss shipments, bookings, Q1 financials, and guidance.
現在我將把電話轉給 Alex,他將討論發貨、預訂、第一季財務狀況和指導。
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mark. Beginning on slide 5. As of December 31, 2024, our contracted backlog totaled 68.5 gigawatts with an aggregate value of $20.5 billion or approximately $0.299 per watt. In Q1, we recognized sales of 2.9 gigawatts and contracted an additional 0.5 gigawatts of net bookings, resulting in a quarter end contracted backlog of 66.1 gigawatts with an aggregate value of $19.8 billion or approximately $0.30 per watt.
謝謝,馬克。從投影片 5 開始。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,我們的合約積壓總量為 68.5 吉瓦,總價值為 205 億美元,約合每瓦 0.299 美元。在第一季度,我們確認了 2.9 千兆瓦的銷售額,並簽訂了額外的 0.5 千兆瓦的淨預訂合同,導致季度末的合同積壓量為 66.1 千兆瓦,總價值為 198 億美元,約合每瓦 0.30 美元。
Since the end of the first quarter, we've entered into an additional 0.2 gigawatts of contracts, increasing our total backlog to 66.3 gigawatts. Of this total backlog, as Mark previously mentioned, 13.9 gigawatts as of today and forecasted 12 gigawatts by year-end 2025 are under contracts containing provisions that if invoked by First Solar at its discretion, serve as a circuit breaker to prevent meaningful gross margin erosion in a tariff regime scenario such as was announced earlier this month. Given that we are only in the initial stages of engagement with our customers on any tariff-related impacts to these contracts, all of these agreements remain in place and are included within our backlog as of today's call.
自第一季末以來,我們又簽訂了 0.2 千兆瓦的合同,使我們的總積壓合約量增加到 66.3 千兆瓦。正如馬克之前提到的,在所有這些積壓訂單中,截至今天已有 13.9 千兆瓦的訂單,預計到 2025 年底將有 12 千兆瓦的訂單,這些訂單是根據包含條款的合約簽訂的,如果 First Solar 自行決定援引這些條款,則可以作為斷路器,以防止在本月宣布的關稅系統情景下出現大幅下降。鑑於我們與客戶就這些合約的關稅相關影響進行接觸的初始階段,所有這些協議仍然有效,並包含在我們今天的電話會議中的積壓訂單中。
Substantial portion of our overall backlog includes the potential to increase the base ASP through the application of adjusters, contingent upon achieving milestones within our current technology road map by the expected delivery date of the product. At the end of the first quarter, we had approximately 32.5 gigawatts of contracted volume with these adjusters, which, if fully realized, could generate additional revenue up to approximately $0.6 billion or about $0.02 per watt with the majority of this revenue expected to be recognized between 2026 and 2028.
我們整體積壓訂單的很大一部分包括透過應用調整器來增加基本 ASP 的潛力,但前提是產品預計交付日期之前實現當前技術路線圖中的里程碑。截至第一季末,我們與這些調整機構簽訂的合約量約為 32.5 千兆瓦,如果全部實現,可以產生額外收入,最高可達約 6 億美元或每瓦約 0.02 美元,預計大部分收入將在 2026 年至 2028 年之間確認。
Contracted volume associated with these adjusters have reduced approximately 4.6 gigawatts since the previous earnings call. Approximately half of this is due to adjustors being confirmed with the associated change to the contracted backlog. The remainder has been removed as a function of the expiry of contractual notification periods as well as an expected delay in the timing of CuRe conversion in Vietnam following the new tariff announcements.
自上次收益電話會議以來,與這些調整器相關的合約量已減少約 4.6 千兆瓦。其中約一半是由於理賠員確認了與合約積壓相關的變更。由於合約通知期已到期,以及新關稅公告發布後越南 CuRe 轉換時間預計會延遲,因此剩餘部分已被取消。
This figure does not account for potential adjustments that applies to the total contracted backlog, including potential changes to the ASP based on the specific module BIN delivered to the customer as well as fluctuations in sales freight costs or applicable aluminum and steel commodity prices.
該數字並未考慮適用於總合約積壓量的潛在調整,包括基於交付給客戶的特定模組 BIN 對 ASP 的潛在變化以及銷售運費或適用鋁和鋼商品價格的波動。
As reflected on slide 6, our total pipeline of potential bookings remained strong with bookings opportunities of 81 gigawatts, an increase of approximately 0.7 gigawatts since the previous quarter. Our mid- to late-stage bookings opportunities have increased by approximately 2.6 gigawatt -- 2.7 gigawatts to 23.7 gigawatts, including 17.3 gigawatts in North America and 6.1 gigawatts in India. Increase in our mid- to late-stage bookings opportunity is primarily driven by increased demand in India from the PM-Kusum segment, the government-funded initiative to add solar to distribution feeders supplying power for agricultural pumps. Launched in 2022, the scheme aims to add approximately 30 gigawatts of solar capacity by March 2026.
如投影片 6 所示,我們的潛在預訂總量依然強勁,預訂機會為 81 吉瓦,比上一季增加了約 0.7 吉瓦。我們的中後期訂單機會增加了約 2.6 千兆瓦 - 2.7 千兆瓦至 23.7 千兆瓦,其中包括北美的 17.3 千兆瓦和印度的 6.1 千兆瓦。我們的中後期訂單機會的增加主要受到印度 PM-Kusum 部門需求增長的推動,該部門是政府資助的計劃,旨在將太陽能添加到為農業泵供電的配電饋線中。該計畫於 2022 年啟動,旨在到 2026 年 3 月增加約 30 吉瓦的太陽能容量。
Recently, several Indian states have allocated substantial capacities to developers under this initiative. Requirement to use modules with India-made cells allows First Solar's locally manufactured Series 7 modules to qualify for deployment in this scheme. Our mid- to late-stage pipeline includes 3.8 gigawatts of opportunities that are contracted subject to conditions precedent. As a reminder, signed contracts in India will not be recognized as bookings until we've received full security against the offtake.
最近,印度幾個邦已根據這項措施向開發商分配了大量產能。由於要求使用印度製造的電池組件,First Solar 本地生產的 7 系列組件才有資格在該計劃中部署。我們的中後期管道包括 3.8 千兆瓦的機會,這些機會是根據先決條件簽訂的。提醒一下,在我們收到全部承購擔保之前,在印度簽署的合約將不會被承認為預訂。
Beginning on slide 7, I'll cover our financial results for the first quarter. We had 2.9 gigawatts of module sales in Q1, of which 1.75 gigawatts was domestically produced U.S. volume. This resulted in net sales of $0.8 billion, reflecting a $0.7 billion decrease from the previous quarter. Decrease in net sales was due to an anticipated seasonal reduction in the volume of modules sold during Q1.
從第 7 張投影片開始,我將介紹我們第一季的財務表現。我們第一季的組件銷量為 2.9 千兆瓦,其中 1.75 千兆瓦是美國國內生產的。淨銷售額為 8 億美元,較上一季減少 7 億美元。淨銷售額的下降是由於預計第一季模組銷售量將出現季節性減少。
Gross margin was 41% in the first quarter, up from 37% in the prior quarter. This increase was primarily driven by a higher mix of modules sold from our US factories, which qualifies as Section 45X tax credits as well as the difference in IRA credit valuation between periods, partially offset by higher module production costs of domestic US module volume.
第一季毛利率為41%,高於上一季的37%。這一增長主要得益於我們美國工廠銷售的組件種類增加(符合第 45X 條稅收抵免條件)以及不同時期 IRA 抵免估值的差異,但美國國內組件產量的組件生產成本上升部分抵消了這一增長。
Despite the quarter-over-quarter increase, our Q1 gross margin fell below our forecast. Although we met our guided shipment and revenue numbers, our mix of US-made modules sold was approximately 250 megawatts less than expected at the midpoint of our guidance with a corresponding reduction in IRA section 45X credit recognized. Approximately half of this shortfall was driven by both lower-than-anticipated US production in Q1 as well as the timing of sale of CuRe products from our limited production run, which concluded in Q1, which is now forecast to sell in the second quarter.
儘管環比有所增長,但我們第一季的毛利率低於預期。儘管我們達到了預期的出貨量和收入數字,但我們銷售的美國製造模組組合比預期中位數少了約 250 兆瓦,同時 IRA 第 45X 部分確認的信用額度也相應減少。造成這一缺口的大約一半是由於第一季美國產量低於預期,以及我們有限生產批次的CuRe產品的銷售時間,該產品在第一季結束,目前預計將在第二季銷售。
The remainder resulted from shipping challenges in the final weeks of the quarter. And note as we continue to work through both the impact of module shipment schedules from our previously discussed and resolved Series 7 manufacturing issues as well as typical early year seasonality, approximately 70% of our volumes sold in the quarter was recognized as revenue in March. We did not incur any additional warranty charges from the sale of Series 7 modules affected by manufacturing issues. And as of Q1 quarter end, we continue to hold approximately 0.7 gigawatts of potentially impacted Series 7 modules in inventory. In addition, during the quarter, we began reaching agreements in principle on final resolution for some potentially impacted Series 7 modules from our initial production run consistent within our current warranty reserves.
其餘部分則源自於本季最後幾週的運輸挑戰。請注意,隨著我們繼續研究先前討論和解決的 7 系列製造問題對模組出貨時間表的影響以及典型的年初季節性因素,本季度我們銷售的約 70% 的銷量在 3 月份被確認為收入。我們沒有因銷售受製造問題影響的 7 系列模組而產生任何額外的保固費用。截至第一季末,我們庫存中仍有約 0.7 千兆瓦的潛在受影響的 7 系列模組。此外,在本季度,我們開始就一些可能受影響的 7 系列模組的最終解決方案在原則上達成協議,這些模組來自我們最初的生產運行,與我們當前的保固儲備一致。
Furthermore, as an additional update, an independent analysis and review of the root cause, corrective actions and implementation plan for the manufacturing issues in our initial Series 7 production has been completed. A summary of the results of the independent review has been shared with customers and financing parties.
此外,作為補充更新,我們已完成初始 7 系列生產中製造問題的根本原因、糾正措施和實施計劃的獨立分析和審查。獨立審查結果的摘要已與客戶和融資方分享。
SG&A, R&D, and production start-up expenses totaled $123 million in the first quarter, reflecting an increase of approximately $12 million compared to the fourth quarter. This increase was primarily due to a higher reserve for potential credit losses as a function of an increased accounts receivable balance as well as increased production start-up expenses for the ramp-up of our Louisiana facility. Our first-quarter operating income was $221 million, which included depreciation and amortization and accretion of $126 million, ramp and underutilization cost of $20 million, production start-up expenses of $18 million, and share-based compensation expense of $3 million.
第一季銷售、一般及行政費用、研發及生產啟動費用總計 1.23 億美元,較第四季增加約 1,200 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於應收帳款餘額增加導致潛在信用損失準備金增加,以及路易斯安那州工廠產能擴大導致生產啟動費用增加。我們第一季的營業收入為 2.21 億美元,其中包括 1.26 億美元的折舊、攤提和增值、2,000 萬美元的產能提升和未充分利用成本、1,800 萬美元的生產啟動費用以及 300 萬美元的股權激勵費用。
Non-operating income netted to an expense of $4 million in Q1, which was favorable relative to the fourth quarter by approximately $6 million. This increase was primarily driven by higher interest-income from past due payments on accounts receivable from customers. We recorded tax expense of $8 million in the first quarter compared to $53 million in the fourth quarter. This decrease in tax expense is primarily due to a favorable jurisdictional mix and lower pretax income in the current period. Additionally, there were higher reserves for state taxes in the comparative period for jurisdictions that do not adhere to the federal tax provisions of the IRA regarding the tax exemption of Section 45X credit sales.
第一季非營業收入扣除支出為 400 萬美元,較第四季增加約 600 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於客戶應收帳款逾期付款所產生的利息收入增加所致。我們第一季的稅費為 800 萬美元,而第四季的稅費為 5,300 萬美元。稅費的減少主要是由於有利的司法管轄組合和本期較低的稅前收入。此外,對於不遵守 IRA 中關於第 45X 條信貸銷售免稅的聯邦稅規定的司法管轄區,同期的州稅儲備金更高。
Combination of the aforementioned items led to first quarter earnings per diluted share of $1.95.
上述項目綜合起來導致第一季每股攤薄收益為 1.95 美元。
Next turn to Slide 8 to discuss select balance sheet items and summary cash flow information. Total balance of our cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, restricted cash equivalents, and marketable securities was $0.9 billion at the end of Q1, reflecting a decrease of $0.9 billion from year-end. The first quarter saw a decrease in our cash balance accompanied by an increase in accounts receivable and inventory accounts compared to year-end 2024. The change was driven by several anticipated factors. Firstly, our 2025 shipment profile with its back-ended revenue profile assumes continuous production throughout the year to meet our contracted commitments.
接下來轉到投影片 8,討論選擇資產負債表項目和總結現金流量資訊。第一季末,我們的現金、現金等價物、受限現金、受限現金等價物及有價證券的總餘額為 9 億美元,比去年末減少 9 億美元。與 2024 年底相比,第一季我們的現金餘額減少,同時應收帳款和庫存帳戶增加。這一變化是由幾個預期因素推動的。首先,我們 2025 年的出貨量概況及其後端收入概況假設全年持續生產以履行我們的合約承諾。
This profile results in a transitory working capital imbalance leading to an increase in our finished goods inventory and warehousing costs, thereby creating near-term headwinds to our gross cash. Pending any potential impact to international production as a function of the new tariff regime, which I'll discuss shortly in the guidance section, we expect this trend to continue in the near term, but anticipate it will reverse once our shipments increase in the second half of the year, reducing our inventory build. Secondly, we've seen an increase in our overdue accounts receivable balance of approximately $350 million as of quarter end. Within this is approximately $70 million due from 1.8 gigawatts of terminations, primarily due to default in 2024. We've not received the entitled termination payment and are continuing to pursue litigation or arbitration to enforce our full termination payment rights under the respective contracts.
這種狀況導致了暫時的營運資本失衡,導致我們的成品庫存和倉儲成本增加,從而對我們的總現金造成短期阻力。由於新的關稅制度會對國際生產產生潛在影響,我將在指導部分簡要討論,我們預計這一趨勢將在短期內持續下去,但預計一旦下半年我們的出貨量增加,這一趨勢就會逆轉,從而減少我們的庫存積累。其次,截至季末,我們的逾期應收帳款餘額增加了約 3.5 億美元。其中約有 7000 萬美元是由於 1.8 千兆瓦的終止而造成的,主要是由於 2024 年的違約。我們尚未收到應得的終止付款,並正在繼續進行訴訟或仲裁,以根據相關合約行使我們全部終止付款權利。
In addition, a negotiated settlement with a customer following a payment default has deferred approximately $100 million of payments until Q4 of this year. While this deferred payment is fully backed by a surety bond and carried interest that is accretive to the year, nevertheless creates an additional near-term liquidity imbalance. We've also seen a recent increase in overdue AR as a function of ongoing discussions with customers related to the initial Series 7 manufacturing issues last year. Thirdly, our capital expenditures totaled $206 million in the first quarter. This expenditure is primarily related to our newest facility in Louisiana, which is projected to enter start up in Q3 of 2025 and to ramp production through the second half of this year. Accordingly, our net cash position decreased by approximately $0.8 billion to $0.4 billion as a result of the aforementioned factors.
此外,在付款違約後,與客戶達成的協商解決方案已將約 1 億美元的付款推遲到今年第四季。雖然這筆延期付款完全由保證金和當年增值的附帶權益支持,但卻造成了額外的短期流動性失衡。我們也發現,由於去年與客戶就最初的 7 系列製造問題進行的持續討論,逾期 AR 數量近期有所增加。第三,第一季我們的資本支出總計2.06億美元。這筆支出主要與我們位於路易斯安那州的最新工廠有關,該工廠預計將於 2025 年第三季投入使用,並在今年下半年實現產量提升。因此,由於上述因素,我們的淨現金狀況減少了約 8 億美元至 4 億美元。
Before discussing our updated financial outlook, I'd like to comment on the challenges facing us as it relates to providing operational and financial guidance in the current policy and trade environment, particularly with the imposition of the new universal and reciprocal tariffs early this month. Please turn to slide 9. When we provided our initial full-year 2025 guidance on our earnings call in February of this year, we provided context, including related to risks in two key areas: Firstly, the risk of policy uncertainty in Europe, India, and the United States, especially in the US with regards to tariffs and the ongoing budget reconciliation process and its potential impacts on the IRA. And secondly, our imbalanced supply-demand position where, excluding India, we were cumulatively oversold through 2026, but with an undersold position in 2025 for our Series 6 Malaysia and Vietnam production, driven in large part by 2024 contract terminations and module delivery shift rights in 2025 utilized by customers facing project delays and policy uncertainty.
在討論我們最新的財務前景之前,我想先評論一下我們在當前政策和貿易環境下提供營運和財務指導所面臨的挑戰,特別是在本月初實施新的普遍和互惠關稅的情況下。請翻到第 9 張投影片。當我們在今年 2 月的收益電話會議上提供 2025 年全年初步指導時,我們提供了背景信息,包括與兩個關鍵領域的風險相關的信息:首先,歐洲、印度和美國的政策不確定性風險,尤其是美國在關稅和正在進行的預算協調過程及其對 IRA 的潛在影響方面的風險。其次,我們的供需狀況不平衡,除印度外,到 2026 年我們的累計銷售處於超額狀態,但到 2025 年,我們的馬來西亞和越南 6 系列產品將處於銷售不足狀態,這在很大程度上是由於 2024 年合約終止以及面臨專案延期和政策不確定性的客戶利用 2025 年模組交付轉移權。
Policy uncertainty relating to the budget reconciliation process and the IRA remains. Policy impacts and uncertainty relating to tariffs have increased significantly. The recently announced tariffs directly and adversely impact First Solar in multiple areas, including by increasing capital expenditure costs for our new US factories, increasing US factory production costs, adding significant costs to import finished goods to the US from our Malaysia, Vietnam, and India facilities and therefore potentially driving reduced international factory production which leads to increased underutilization expenses. They also indirectly increase risk and volatility for First Solar through their impacts to our customers, who faced increased project costs and project financing and construction delays which may in turn cause shipment timing delays to First Solar, delays in timing of cash receipts, and may reduce new sales opportunities for us in the near term.
與預算協調過程和個人退休帳戶 (IRA) 相關的政策不確定性仍然存在。與關稅相關的政策影響和不確定性顯著增加。最近宣布的關稅直接對 First Solar 的多個領域產生了不利影響,包括增加我們在美國新工廠的資本支出成本、增加美國工廠的生產成本、增加從馬來西亞、越南和印度工廠進口成品到美國的成本,從而可能導致國際工廠產量下降,從而導致利用不足費用增加。它們還透過對客戶的影響間接增加了 First Solar 的風險和波動性,我們的客戶面臨專案成本增加、專案融資和施工延誤的問題,這反過來可能導致 First Solar 的發貨時間延遲、現金收款時間延遲,並可能在短期內減少我們的新銷售機會。
We've elected to update our financial guidance with ranges based on expected impacts from the new tariff regime. For the upper end of our range, we assume the impacts from the tariff policy in place as of today's call, remaining through at least the end of 2025, including the 10% universal tariff rate, the suspension of individual country reciprocal tariff rates on all countries except China, higher tariff rates applicable to certain products from China, certain tariff exclusions for specific HTS imports codes, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and Section 301 fees on Chinese-built vessels. The lower end of our range assumes the above with the addition of including the impacts from the assumption that reciprocal tariffs take effect as of July 9, namely 26%, 24% and 46% applicable to India, Malaysia and Vietnam, respectively.
我們已決定根據新關稅制度的預期影響來更新我們的財務指導範圍。對於我們範圍的上限,我們假設截至今天的電話會議時實施的關稅政策的影響至少持續到 2025 年底,包括 10% 的統一關稅稅率、暫停對除中國以外的所有國家的個別國家互惠關稅稅率、對來自中國的某些產品適用更高的關稅稅率、對特定 HTS 進口代碼的某些 32 條我們範圍的下限假設了上述情況,並包括自 7 月 9 日起互惠關稅生效的假設的影響,即分別適用於印度、馬來西亞和越南的 26%、24% 和 46%。
Tariff and cost-sharing provisions across our contracts with both customers and suppliers vary. And while currently reflected in our guide, we'll continue to engage with both to assess tariff exposure allocation and ultimate cost and other related impacts. Certain other potential indirect and/or unknown costs related to these tariffs, including but not limited to costs associated with any restructuring or asset impairments, are excluded from our guidance provided today.
我們與客戶和供應商簽訂的合約中的關稅和成本分攤條款各不相同。雖然目前已反映在我們的指南中,但我們將繼續與兩者合作,以評估關稅風險分配和最終成本以及其他相關影響。與這些關稅相關的某些其他潛在間接和/或未知成本,包括但不限於與任何重組或資產減損相關的成本,不包括在我們今天提供的指引中。
Beginning with volumes sold. Our forecast for 9.5 to 9.8 gigawatts of sold volume manufactured in the United States remains unchanged. Internationally, as it relates to Series 6, our previous guidance included an assumption of approximately 0.7 gigawatts of combined Malaysia and Vietnam product forecast to book and bill within the year. Given the tariff-related uncertainty associated with a solar project's overall CapEx and the challenges of booking new volume in the current unsettled policy climate. Our updated guidance removes this volume from both the high and low end of the range.
從銷售量開始。我們對美國製造的銷售量為 9.5 至 9.8 千兆瓦的預測保持不變。在國際上,就第 6 系列而言,我們先前的指導包括假設馬來西亞和越南合計約 0.7 千兆瓦的產品預計將在年內預訂和開票。考慮到與太陽能專案整體資本支出相關的關稅不確定性,以及在當前不穩定的政策環境下預訂新容量的挑戰。我們更新後的指南將該交易量從範圍的高端和低端中移除。
In addition, both the high and low end of our guidance range assume a reduction in capacity utilization and throughput at our Malaysia and Vietnam factories beginning in Q2 to align with anticipated reduced demand for these potentially highly tariffed modules. The low end of our range includes an assumption of partial or full idling of these plants continuing through year-end. We continue to evaluate how best to optimize production across these sites in a potentially significantly reduced demand environment for internationally produced product, including through ongoing dialogue with customers. Temporary idling of production despite the near-term underutilization cost impact, approximately 40% of which is noncash, provides us with optionality as we await further updates to the tariff regime as it relates to Malaysia and Vietnam, as well as the outcome of the budget reconciliation process and any impact to the IRA. As it relates to international Series 7, we previously forecast approximately 2 gigawatts of the 3 to 3.2 gigawatts of India production in 2025 being sold into the U.S market. Our revised forecast assumes total production in India is unchanged, but with a reallocation of approximately half of this 2 gigawatts back to domestic Indian market in the second half of the year to avoid expected tariff impact. This results in increased domestic India book and bill dependency for the year from approximately 0.7 gigawatts previously to approximately 1.5 gigawatts in our current guidance. Combined, we now forecast full year module sales of 15.5 to 19.3 gigawatts. Combined impact of these volume and ASP changes is approximately $100 million to $375 million.
此外,我們的指導範圍的高端和低端都假設從第二季度開始,馬來西亞和越南工廠的產能利用率和產量將下降,以適應這些可能高關稅模組的預期需求下降。我們範圍的低端包括假設這些工廠的部分或全部閒置將持續到年底。我們將繼續評估如何在國際產品需求可能大幅減少的環境下,最好地優化這些工廠的生產,包括透過與客戶持續對話。儘管短期內利用不足會產生成本影響(其中約 40% 為非現金成本),但生產暫時停頓仍為我們提供了選擇權,因為我們正在等待與馬來西亞和越南相關的關稅制度的進一步更新,以及預算協調過程的結果和對 IRA 的任何影響。就國際 7 系列而言,我們先前預測,2025 年印度生產的 3 至 3.2 千兆瓦電力中約有 2 千兆瓦將銷往美國市場。我們修訂後的預測假設印度的總產量保持不變,但下半年將這 2 千兆瓦中的約一半重新分配回印度國內市場,以避免預期的關稅影響。這導致印度國內年度帳面和帳單依賴度從先前的約 0.7 千兆瓦增加到我們目前指導下的約 1.5 千兆瓦。綜合起來,我們現在預測全年組件銷量將達到 15.5 至 19.3 千兆瓦。這些數量和 ASP 變化的綜合影響約為 1 億至 3.75 億美元。
In terms of import duties on finished goods, we forecast approximately $90 million to $70 million of tariff expense on module imports. As it relates to production costs, the impact of the previously announced Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and steel imports into the US at a rate of 25% was assumed in our previous guidance range. With the newly announced tariff regime, we forecast a total 2025 tariff impact on raw material imports of approximately $25 million to $55 million, primarily related to aluminum frames and substrate glass imports as we continue to ramp available domestic glass supply. Our forecast of fleet average sales freight, warehousing, ramp, underutilization, supply chain LDs and other period costs has increased by approximately $65 million to $270 million, primarily as a result of underutilization charges from running the Malaysia and Vietnam factories at lower than full production capacity and the associated impact from underabsorption of fixed costs which are accounted for as period expenses.
就成品進口關稅而言,我們預測模組進口的關稅費用約為 9,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。就生產成本而言,我們先前的指導範圍假設了先前宣布的第 232 條關稅對美國鋁和鋼鐵進口徵收 25% 的關稅的影響。根據新公佈的關稅制度,我們預測 2025 年關稅對原材料進口的影響總額約為 2500 萬至 5500 萬美元,主要涉及鋁框架和基板玻璃的進口,因為我們將繼續增加國內玻璃供應。我們對車隊平均銷售運費、倉儲費、坡道費、未充分利用費、供應鏈 LD 和其他期間成本的預測增加了約 6500 萬美元,達到 2.7 億美元,這主要是由於馬來西亞和越南工廠的運營效率低於滿負荷生產導致的未充分利用費用,以及作為期間費用核算的固定成本吸收不足所產生的相關影響。
In addition, we expect small incremental freight and logistics charges as a function of accelerating imports ahead of the reciprocal tariff effective date of July 9 as well as due to expected 301 tonnage fees on Chinese built vessels beginning in Q4 of this year.
此外,我們預計,由於在 7 月 9 日互惠關稅生效日之前進口加速,以及預計今年第四季開始對中國建造的船舶徵收 301 噸位費,運費和物流費用將小幅上漲。
I'll now cover the full year 2025 guidance ranges on slide 10. Our net sales guidance is between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion, which includes an unchanged range of US manufactured volumes sold. The high end of the range, we assume a reduction of $300 million from the removal of 0.7 gigawatts of International Series 6 volumes sold as well as a lower ASP associated with approximately 0.8 gigawatts of India produced Series 7 volume moving from being sold in the US market back to being sold in the India domestic market.
我現在將在第 10 張投影片上介紹 2025 年全年指導範圍。我們的淨銷售額預期在 45 億美元至 55 億美元之間,其中包括保持不變的美國製造銷售量。在該範圍的高端,我們假設由於國際 6 系列銷量減少 0.7 千兆瓦而減少了 3 億美元,同時由於印度生產的 7 系列銷量約 0.8 千兆瓦從美國市場銷售轉回印度國內市場銷售,導致平均銷售價格降低。
At the lower end, we assume an additional reduction in international volumes sold as a function of the reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs. Gross margin is expected to be between $1.96 billion and $2.47 billion or approximately 44%, which includes $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion in Section 45X tax credits, and $95 million to $220 million of ramp and underutilization costs.
在較低水平,我們假設隨著互惠關稅的恢復,國際銷售量將進一步減少。預計毛利率將在 19.6 億美元至 24.7 億美元之間,或約為 44%,其中包括 16.5 億美元至 17 億美元的第 45X 節稅收抵免,以及 9,500 萬至 2.2 億美元的坡道和未充分利用成本。
SG&A expense is expected to total $180 million to $190 million, and R&D expense is expected to total $230 million to $250 million. SG&A and R&D combined expense is expected to total $410 million to $440 million and total operating expenses, which include $60 million to $70 million of production start-up expense expected to be between $470 million and $510 million. Operating income is expected to be between $1.45 billion and $2 billion, implying an operating margin of approximately 35% and is inclusive of $155 million to $290 million of combined ramp and underutilization costs and plant start-up expense, and $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion of Section 45X credits. This results in a full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance range of $12.50 to $17.50.
預計銷售、一般及行政費用總計 1.8 億至 1.9 億美元,研發費用總計 2.3 億至 2.5 億美元。銷售、一般及行政費用及研發費用預計合併費用總額為 4.1 億美元至 4.4 億美元,總營運費用(其中包括 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的生產啟動費用)預計在 4.7 億美元至 5.1 億美元之間。預計營業收入在 14.5 億美元至 20 億美元之間,意味著營業利潤率約為 35%,其中包括 1.55 億美元至 2.9 億美元的綜合產能提升和未充分利用成本以及工廠啟動費用,以及 16.5 億美元至 17 億美元的第 45X 條款信貸。這使得 2025 年全年每股攤薄收益預期範圍達到 12.50 美元至 17.50 美元。
In summary, the upper end of our EPS guidance range is reduced by $2.50 per diluted share, which includes approximately $1 per share of direct tariff cost impact, approximately $1 per share of indirect tariff impact to volumes sold and ASPs, approximately $0.50 per share of indirect tariff impact, increasing underutilization and logistics costs. The EPS guidance range from high to low of $5 per diluted share is driven by a volume sold impact of approximately $3 per share and incremental underutilization costs of approximately $2 per share.
綜上所述,我們的每股盈餘預期上限為每股稀釋後減少 2.50 美元,其中包括每股約 1 美元的直接關稅成本影響、每股約 1 美元的間接關稅對銷售量和平均銷售價格的影響、每股約 0.50 美元的間接關稅影響、未充分利用成本和物流成本的增加。每股盈餘指引範圍從高到低為每股 5 美元,這是由每股約 3 美元的銷售量影響和每股約 2 美元的增量未充分利用成本所驅動的。
From an earnings cadence perspective, we anticipate module sales of 3 to 3.9 gigawatts for the second quarter, $310 million to $350 million in Section 45X credits, and expected earnings per diluted share of between $2 and $3. Capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to range from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, including $25 million to $50 million of tariff impact. Our year-end 2025 net cash balance is anticipated to be between $0.4 billion and $0.9 billion. As a reminder, our net cash guidance does not account for the sale of our 2025 section 45X credits, but as in prior years, we will continue to evaluate options and valuations for potential earlier monetization.
從獲利節奏的角度來看,我們預計第二季的模組銷售額為 3 至 3.9 千兆瓦,第 45X 條款信貸額為 3.1 億至 3.5 億美元,預計每股攤薄收益在 2 至 3 美元之間。預計2025年的資本支出將在10億美元至15億美元之間,其中包括2,500萬美元至5,000萬美元的關稅影響。我們預計 2025 年底的淨現金餘額將在 4 億至 9 億美元之間。提醒一下,我們的淨現金指引並未考慮 2025 年第 45X 節信貸的出售,但與前幾年一樣,我們將繼續評估潛在早期貨幣化的選擇和估值。
Turning to slide 11, I'll summarize the key messages on today's call. Our Q1 earnings per diluted share came in below the low end of our guidance range at $1.95 per share, primarily due to a change versus forecast in the mix of US versus international products sold within the quarter. Our forecast for US produced volumes sold remains unchanged for the year.
翻到第 11 張投影片,我將總結今天電話會議的關鍵資訊。我們第一季每股攤薄收益低於我們指引範圍的低端,為每股 1.95 美元,主要原因是本季銷售的美國產品和國際產品組合與預測有所不同。我們對今年美國產量銷售量的預測保持不變。
In the near-term policy uncertainty, especially relating to the newly announced tariff regime has introduced significant challenges to the year that were not known at the start of the year. We've updated our guidance to reflect a range of Universal to reciprocal tariff impacts known as of today. For the full-year 2025, we're forecasting earnings per diluted share of $12.50 to $17.50.
近期的政策不確定性,特別是與新宣布的關稅制度有關的不確定性,為今年帶來了年初未曾預料到的重大挑戰。我們已更新我們的指導方針,以反映目前已知的一系列普遍關稅對互惠關稅的影響。對於 2025 年全年,我們預測每股攤薄收益為 12.50 美元至 17.50 美元。
In the longer term, we remain confident in the long-term prospects of both the US solar energy generation demand broadly and for First Solar specifically, through leveraging our unique profile and competitive differentiators, including fully vertically integrated manufacturing, domestic supply chain and manufacturing base, and the proprietary CadTel based semiconductor technology.
從長遠來看,我們仍然對美國太陽能發電需求的長期前景充滿信心,特別是對 First Solar 而言,透過利用我們獨特的優勢和競爭優勢,包括完全垂直整合的製造、國內供應鏈和製造基地,以及基於 CadTel 的專有半導體技術。
With that, we conclude our remarks and open the call for questions. Operator?
至此,我們的發言結束,開始提問。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Philip Shen, Roth Capital Partners.
(操作員指示)Roth Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I have a few categories here. First one on the outlook for bookings. In Q1, you guys did 600 megawatts since the Q4 call at $0.305 a watt. Since the tariffs, what have the conversations been like with customers? Have you been able to do or generate bookings or have things slowed down because of the tariffs?
我這裡有幾個類別。首先是關於預訂前景。自第四季以來,你們在第一季發電量為 600 兆瓦,發電價格為每瓦 0.305 美元。自徵收關稅以來,與客戶的溝通情況如何?您是否能夠進行或產生預訂,或因關稅而導致業務放緩?
Number two, this topic is the recent underperformance of the modules. Can you just share a little more about what's going on here? You talked in the prepared remarks about the third-party report on the production line fixes. Can you share a little more about the details?
第二,這個主題是模組最近表現不佳。能否再分享這裡發生的事情?您在準備好的發言中談到了有關生產線修復的第三方報告。能否分享更多細節?
And thus far, you've been focused on the Series 7 issues, but in our checks, some customers are flagging some underperformance of Series 6. So can you help frame the -- and quantify the Series 6 issues as well and compare and contrast with Series 7.
到目前為止,您一直在關注的是 Series 7 的問題,但在我們的檢查中,一些客戶指出 Series 6 的性能不佳。那麼,您能否協助建立和量化第 6 系列的問題,並與第 7 系列進行比較和對比。
And then finally, when do you expect customers to start taking more smooth delivery again? Because I recall from the last earnings call, you have a new $200 million to $300 million warehousing expense, and so I was wondering, because you're manufacturing linearly, when do you think that kind of resolves? Do you think it's more '26, and we should expect that to maybe not resolve in '25?
最後,您預計客戶何時可以再次享受更順暢的送貨服務?因為我記得上次財報電話會議上,你們有一筆 2 億到 3 億美元的新倉儲費用,所以我想知道,因為你們是線性製造的,你認為什麼時候能解決這個問題?您是否認為這更像是 26 年的問題,而我們應該預期這個問題可能不會在 25 年解決?
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay, Phil. Look, I guess, on the bookings side and then the impact since the tariffs. Clearly, there has been more momentum and customers reaching out even some -- we've done some amount of business with in the past, but haven't necessarily sold meaningful volume to over the last couple of years. Again, there's two events that have happened. One is the Solar 3 outcome. The other is the universal tariffs and potential implications that they're going to have as well as looking across the horizon, what do the reciprocal tariffs look like.
好的,菲爾。我想,從預訂方面來看,然後看看關稅的影響。顯然,我們的發展勢頭越來越強勁,客戶也越來越多——我們過去曾與一些客戶做過一些業務,但在過去幾年中,銷售量並不一定很大。再一次,發生了兩件事。一個是太陽3的結果。另一個問題是普遍關稅及其可能產生的影響,以及從長遠來看,互惠關稅是什麼樣的。
And I think everybody is trying to figure out how do they get through this horizon and try to derisk as much as they can from tariff exposure. So First Solar, obviously, given our domestic capacity is kind of a partner of choice when it comes to that. So clearly, activities ticked up. I mean, the question we still have to debate and discuss is what do we think is the appropriate market ASP for that opportunity? And really, we don't know until we understand to what extent there's any potential impact or changes because of the budget reconciliation on IRA.
我認為每個人都在試圖弄清楚如何突破這個困境,並盡可能地降低關稅風險。因此,顯然,考慮到我們的國內產能,First Solar 是我們在這方面的首選合作夥伴。顯然,活動有所增加。我的意思是,我們仍然需要辯論和討論的問題是,我們認為適合該機會的市場 ASP 是多少?事實上,我們只有在了解預算調節對 IRA 造成多大程度的潛在影響或變化後才能知道。
If FEOC is implemented and there's less domestic supply, as an example, if 45X is changed or eliminated, that impacts things. If the PTC, ITC has changed or it includes the domestic content requirement in order to qualify, it changes. So we're still of a position to be very patient in that regard. And given how strong our bookings have been for our domestic volume, it's not like we have a lot of resiliency either there.
如果實施 FEOC 並且國內供應減少,例如 45X 發生變化或被取消,那麼就會對情況產生影響。如果 PTC、ITC 發生變化或為了符合資格而包含了國內成分要求,則它會發生變化。因此,在這方面我們仍然保持耐心。考慮到我們國內預訂量的強勁表現,我們在那裡的彈性也不大。
So to the extent customers are wanting to engage for near-term opportunities, it's really difficult to have a meeting of the mind there because you'd be more or less looking at the international production and trying to bring that into the US and then there's a whole day of debate that starts on what -- how are we going to deal with the tariffs, who's taking the risk and everything else, right? So clearly strong momentum, but we're also trying to be very patient because it's not clear yet to what is the pricing dynamic going to look like for domestic modules over the next several years until all the dust settles, and there's still a lot that will happen over the next several quarters.
因此,就客戶希望參與短期機會的程度而言,很難達成共識,因為你或多或少會關注國際生產並試圖將其帶入美國,然後會有一整天的辯論開始——我們將如何處理關稅,誰來承擔風險以及其他一切,對嗎?顯然勢頭強勁,但我們也試圖保持耐心,因為在一切塵埃落定之前,尚不清楚未來幾年國內模組的定價動態將會如何,未來幾季仍會發生很多事情。
As it relates to Series 7, and your comment around the performance, what we said in the prepared remarks that we have completed, as we indicated we would, the third-party report. Third-party report has validated that the root causes were identified appropriately, and the appropriate corrective actions have been implemented into our production process effective back last year when we indicated the changes had been made. And that information has been shared with customers who have made inquiries that is being shared with IEs and banks and others who need that type of information.
因為它與第 7 季以及您對錶演的評論有關,我們在準備好的評論中說過,我們已經完成了第三方報告,正如我們所說的那樣。第三方報告已證實,根本原因已被適當識別,並且自去年我們指出已做出改變以來,已在生產過程中實施了適當的糾正措施。這些資訊已與提出詢問的客戶分享,並與 IE、銀行和其他需要此類資訊的機構共用。
As it relates to -- we also said in the prepared remarks that we have reached -- we're effectively in the final documentation of a settlement agreement with one of the customers that was impacted by the initial production loss for Series 7, and we're in the process of finalizing that agreement with them. There's another customer as well that we're in the final stages of. So that's good news for us.
至於它——我們在準備好的評論中也說過——我們實際上正在與一位受到第 7 系列初始生產損失影響的客戶達成和解協議的最終文件,我們正在與他們最終確定該協議。我們還有另一位客戶,其業務也已進入最後階段。這對我們來說是個好消息。
We're starting to see the settlement starting to occur, and that's helpful, right? Because we want to get as much of this behind us as quickly as possible.
我們開始看到和解開始發生,這很有幫助,對吧?因為我們希望盡快解決這些問題。
Your comment about around S7 is still my -- or S6, excuse me, my comment is the same thing I said last quarter when you asked the question, we will always stand behind our product to the fullest extent that's required under our warranty obligation that we mutually agreed to with our customers at the time that we ship the product. It starts with the requirement of sending us the modules, and we will test the modules appropriately under the requirements that are consistent with the IAC standards that both parties have agreed to. And to the extent those modules are below warranty thresholds including measurement error and two other things, then we'll honor the obligation to replace the module. So it's as simple as that. I know you continue to ask this question, but from my standpoint, we will always be there behind our product and our technology.
您對 S7 或 S6 的評論仍然是我的 - 或者對不起,我的評論與上個季度您提出問題時我所說的相同,我們將始終在最大程度上支持我們的產品,這是我們在發貨時與客戶共同同意的保固義務所要求的。首先需要向我們發送模組,然後我們將根據雙方同意的符合 IAC 標準的要求對模組進行適當的測試。如果這些模組低於保固閾值(包括測量誤差和其他兩項),我們將履行更換模組的義務。就這麼簡單。我知道你會繼續問這個問題,但從我的角度來看,我們將永遠支持我們的產品和技術。
And if there are issues that are -- customers are experiencing the field, they're fully aware of the requirements and to the extent they provide the modules, we'll test them appropriately and if there's a need to remediate, we'll remediate accordingly.
如果有問題 - 客戶在現場遇到問題,他們完全了解要求,並且在他們提供模組的範圍內,我們會對其進行適當的測試,如果需要補救,我們會採取相應的補救措施。
As it relates to customer deliveries and the cadence and the speed. What I would say is that it's really also directly associated with uncertainty. And since the last earnings call, the uncertainty has clearly gotten worse, with the implication at the project level. And as you know, Phil, the impact on batteries, in particular, with the tariffs that most of the cells are coming from -- battery cells are coming from China and the rate of which those tariffs are being applied, make those projects potentially uneconomical. So as it relates to our customers having better line of sight and certainty and execution, it's only gotten worse.
因為它與客戶交付、節奏和速度有關。我想說的是,這確實也與不確定性有直接關係。自從上次收益電話會議以來,不確定性顯然變得更加嚴重,並影響到專案層面。正如菲爾你所知,電池受到的影響尤其嚴重,因為大多數電池都來自中國,而這些關稅的稅率使得這些項目可能變得不經濟。因此,儘管這關係到我們的客戶擁有更好的視線、確定性和執行力,但情況只會變得更糟。
So I would not expect a meaningful delta in terms of sell-through or timing of velocity of shipments to our customers because of that level of uncertainty. We'll see how it continues to play out, but that's what's happening right now.
因此,由於存在這種不確定性,我預計銷售量或向客戶發貨的速度不會有顯著的差異。我們將觀察事情如何繼續發展,但這就是現在正在發生的事情。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩科科。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
I wanted to pick up kind of where you left off there. Just a little surprised they have to see the level of volume downside in the guidance this quarter. Obviously, understanding that there was going to be some any margin headwinds just given your international presence, but the volume piece is, I guess, a little bit surprising here. So just curious, like, can you provide any more details around the conversations you're having with your customers? Is it to your point, mostly because of the battery storage supply chain?
我想從你上次中斷的地方繼續說下去。只是他們有點驚訝地看到本季的業績指引中交易量出現了下滑。顯然,考慮到你們的國際影響力,我知道肯定會有一些利潤方面的阻力,但我想,這部分銷售還是有點令人驚訝。所以只是好奇,您能否提供有關您與客戶對話的更多詳細資訊?是否如您所說,主要是因為電池儲存供應鏈?
Or are there other kind of factors here contributing to that? I guess as a follow-on question, how much of the remaining volumes that you're delivering this year, expected to come from your US facilities versus international, I guess, is a way to kind of test the risk there.
或者還有其他因素導致了這種情況?我想接下來的問題是,今年你們交付的剩餘數量中,有多少預計來自美國工廠,有多少來自國際工廠,我想這是一種測試風險的方法。
And then my last question is just around Alex, you mentioned working capital headwinds in the first half of the year. Have you changed your strategy or thought process around tax credit transfer timing or potential need for third-party capital just given the uncertain environment that you guys are operating in?
我的最後一個問題是關於亞歷克斯的,你提到了上半年營運資金面臨的阻力。考慮到你們所處的不確定的營運環境,你們是否改變了有關稅收抵免轉移時機或第三方資本的潛在需求的策略或思考過程?
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, I'll take the first one, and then I'll let Alex do the mix of shipments for our guide on international versus domestic. And then obviously, you can talk about on working capital headwind strategy associated with that. Let me maybe you want to step back and reflect. So what have we done in terms of our guide. And I would start off with that our guide is very much reflective of realization of tariffs are real, and they have consequences, right?
是的,我會選擇第一個,然後我會讓 Alex 根據我們的指南對國際和國內貨物進行混合運輸。然後顯然,您可以談論與此相關的營運資金逆風策略。讓我也許你想退一步思考。那我們在指南方面做了什麼呢?首先我想說的是,我們的指南非常能反映關稅的現實情況,而且關稅會產生後果,對嗎?
And we're in an environment where we run our factories 24/7 365. And I have to be mindful and follow basically what has been communicated. Right now, what I'm being told is that there will be a 10% universal tariff in place up until July 9. And at that point in time, the country-specific reciprocal rates would be reestablished. And when you look at the impact of those rates using Vietnam as an example, of 46%,it becomes uneconomical to ship a product with a 46% tariff into the US and be able to sell that to an end customer, and our contracts with our customers are structured in such a way that the vast majority of them, there is a tariff provision in there, which is largely to protect us from a downside standpoint, right? It's basically to say, we're not wearing that risk but neither is our customer. And we -- so we have to negotiate once the impact of the tariffs have been determined. We have to negotiate that rate in determining if there's an alignment of sharing or who pays for what, or if neither party can -- if the parties can't agree to a negotiation of sharing that tariff then the parties have the right to terminate.
我們的工廠是 365 天、每天 24 小時不間斷的運作。我必須留意並遵循已傳達的基本內容。目前,我被告知,截止到 7 月 9 日,將實施 10% 的統一關稅。屆時,各國的互惠稅率將會重新建立。以越南為例,當你觀察這些稅率的影響時,46% 的稅率,將 46% 關稅的產品運往美國並將其出售給最終客戶變得不經濟,我們與客戶簽訂的合約的結構使得絕大多數合約中都包含關稅條款,這主要是為了保護我們免受不利因素的影響,對嗎?基本上就是說,我們不會承擔這種風險,但我們的客戶也不會。因此,一旦確定了關稅的影響,我們就必須進行談判。我們必須協商該費率,以確定是否有共享協議或誰支付什麼費用,或者如果雙方都不能 - 如果雙方不能就共享該關稅的談判達成一致,那麼雙方都有權終止。
And so we've reflected that in our guide. The high end assumes that the 10% rate is going to carry itself through the end of the year, right? And there is an impact to us, but from a volume standpoint, there's about 700 megawatts that came out of our prior guide. And that was just the open book and build volume that we had. So we had some international volume that we actually were getting pretty good traction on over the last couple of -- or first couple of months of the year.
因此我們在指南中反映了這一點。高端假設 10% 的利率將持續到年底,對嗎?這對我們是有影響的,但從產量的角度來看,大約有 700 兆瓦超出了我們先前的預期。這只是我們所擁有的公開書籍和建構量。因此,在過去的幾個月,或者說今年頭幾個月,我們的國際業務量實際上取得了相當不錯的成長勢頭。
And then the tariffs came in like nobody wants to go into that discussion because nobody knows for certain what the rates are going to be and what risk they're going to wear and neither one of us want to align to a commitment to that volume, knowing that the reciprocal rate will back up for Malaysia and Vietnam, that the product becomes uneconomical. So we took that volume out of the high end. So that's what happened there, right? The low end of the range assumes that we have the reciprocal -- excuse me, the universal tariff until July 9 and then the country specific reciprocal rates go up. So once you get into that environment, basically, we're not shipping manufacturing anything in the second half of the year in Malaysia, Vietnam and selling it into the US.
然後關稅就來了,好像沒有人願意參與這個討論,因為沒有人確切知道稅率是多少,以及他們將承擔什麼風險,而且我們都不想對這個數量做出承諾,因為我們知道互惠稅率將支持馬來西亞和越南,產品變得不經濟。因此,我們將該音量從高端移除。那就是那裡發生的事情,對嗎?該範圍的低端假設我們有互惠——對不起,直到 7 月 9 日的普遍關稅,然後特定國家的互惠稅率就會上升。因此,一旦進入這種環境,基本上,我們不會在下半年將任何製造產品運往馬來西亞、越南並銷往美國。
So it's really -- it's not necessarily a reflection of underlying demand from customers. It's a reflection of the fundamental economics and the headwinds that we would have to deal with. Now having said that, that's our guide. We have not engaged yet meaningfully with customers around the impact of tariffs. Some conversations that I've had with customers at this point in time, for example, in 2026.
所以這其實不一定反映客戶的潛在需求。它反映了基本的經濟狀況和我們必須應對的不利因素。既然已經說了這麼多,這就是我們的指南。我們尚未與客戶就關稅的影響進行有意義的接觸。我曾在這個時間點(例如 2026 年)與客戶進行過一些對話。
And I've told them that it's probable with the current proposed reciprocal country-specific rates that I will not be manufacturing in Malaysia and Vietnam at those rates were to be imposed. And they are very concerned by that because now they have volumes they're depending on for next year that they may not have modules that they can build their projects again. So I can't tell you for certainty what the outcome of these tariff conversations were going to be. We've chosen to say let's assume that the fundamental economic of First Solar is not going to be able to carry a meaningful portion of those tariff rates, which would be, call it, $0.10 in Vietnam and $0.05 to $0.06 of tariff impact in Malaysia, we just aren't going to be able to absorb that. It doesn't make -- fundamentally makes sense to do that.
我告訴他們,按照目前提議的互惠國別稅率,我很可能不會在馬來西亞和越南進行生產。他們對此非常擔心,因為現在他們所依賴的產量是明年的,他們可能沒有足夠的模組來再次建造他們的項目。所以我無法肯定地告訴你這些關稅談判的結果會是什麼。我們選擇說,讓我們假設 First Solar 的基本經濟無法承受這些關稅稅率的很大一部分,即越南的 0.10 美元和馬來西亞的 0.05 至 0.06 美元的關稅影響,我們無法吸收這些影響。從根本上來說,這樣做是沒有意義的。
Now we could get to a better outcome with our customers. We could also see a better outcome with revised rates on those country-specific rates don't know. That's also why we've chosen to just idle the facilities in the second half of the year to understand what happens with potential change to the current country-specific rates, also to understand what happens with the provisions underneath the IRA that could be very impactful to how we would view that international volume and potentially bring it in or potentially doing a finishing line in the US. There's a lot of strategies that we could do once we understand the policy environment and the tariff environment that we're going to be in, but I don't know any of that right now. So our guide is taking the limited information that we have, applying that and it does reflect a meaningful reduction to volume in the low end for sure.
現在我們可以與客戶達成更好的結果。我們也可以看到,透過修改這些特定國家的利率,將會出現更好的結果。這也是為什麼我們選擇在下半年閒置這些設施,以了解當前特定國家利率可能發生的變化,同時也了解 IRA 下的條款會發生什麼變化,這些條款可能會對我們如何看待國際交易量以及可能將其引入或可能在美國完成交易產生很大影響。一旦我們了解了我們將要處的政策環境和關稅環境,我們就可以製定很多策略,但我現在對這些還一無所知。因此,我們的指南採用了我們掌握的有限信息,並加以應用,它確實反映了低端音量的顯著減少。
Top end, it's relatively small 700 megawatts, which is the open book and bill position that we had. Bottom end, yes, there's a meaningful change just because our view with the reciprocal country-specific tariffs, it becomes uneconomical to manufacture in Malaysia, Vietnam and ship into the US.
最高端,相對較小的 700 兆瓦,這是我們的公開帳簿和帳單狀況。底線是的,有一個有意義的變化,只是因為我們對互惠國家特定關稅的看法,在馬來西亞、越南製造並運往美國變得不經濟。
I'll let Alex take the other two.
我會讓亞歷克斯帶走另外兩個。
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So just on the volume piece, the US volume or US manufactured volumes sold is unchanged. So that's 9.5 to 9.8 gigawatts, same as it was at the last call.
是的。因此,僅從銷量來看,美國的銷量或美國製造的銷量保持不變。所以這是 9.5 到 9.8 千兆瓦,與上次通話時相同。
The total India volume sold remains the same, 3 to about 4 gigawatts, 3 to 3.9. What's changed there is the assumption that more of that will now be sold in the India domestic market versus being shipped from India to the US and sold into the US market. The total volume of sold is unchanged.
印度的總銷量維持不變,分別為3至4千兆瓦,3至3.9。變化的是,人們認為更多的產品將在印度國內市場銷售,而不是從印度運往美國並在美國市場銷售。銷售總量維持不變。
So the big change is around the Southeast Asia production in Malaysia, Vietnam. As Mark said at the top end of the range, we're assuming 700 megawatts comes out, and that's the book-and-bill requirement that we had for the year. At the lower end, we're assuming 2.5 gigawatts comes out in total, so an incremental 1.8 on top of that 700. And again, as Mark mentioned, that's really a function of the implication of those tariffs to the cost structure before we've yet engaged with customers around tariff absorption on their behalf. So that's the volume piece.
因此,最大的變化是圍繞馬來西亞、越南等東南亞地區的生產。正如馬克所說,我們假設最高發電量為 700 兆瓦,這就是我們今年的帳面需求。在低端,我們假設總共輸出 2.5 千兆瓦,因此在 700 的基礎上增加 1.8 千兆瓦。正如馬克所提到的,這實際上是這些關稅對成本結構的影響的一個函數,在我們與客戶就關稅吸收進行接觸之前。這就是音量部分。
Now on the cash side, so we brought the cash guide down by $300 million on the top and the bottom end. We brought that range of CapEx to be wider. So previously, $1.3 billion, $1.5 billion, now $1 billion to $1.5 billion is a reflection of, again, if we are in the lower end scenario of the guidance here, we're going to ratchet back CapEx spend a little bit. The cash numbers are lower than they have been historically. We are managing higher inventory and higher AR balances than I would like at the moment.
現在談到現金方面,我們將現金指南的最高和最低限額降低了 3 億美元。我們擴大了資本支出的範圍。因此,之前的 13 億美元、15 億美元,現在的 10 億美元到 15 億美元再次反映了這一點,如果我們處於指導的低端情景中,我們將稍微減少資本支出。現金金額低於歷史最高水準。我們目前管理的庫存和應收帳款餘額都比我希望的要高。
Those are forecast to reverse out in the second half of the year, again, assuming we continue to sell through in the scenarios we place today, and we don't have other shocks to the system, such as we saw with the tariff implications. Remember, these are net numbers, not gross numbers. So on a gross basis, that guide would be $0.9 billion to $1.4 billion, so $500 million higher.
預計這些情況將在今年下半年逆轉,同樣假設我們繼續按照我們今天設定的情景進行銷售,並且系統不會受到其他衝擊,例如我們看到的關稅影響。請記住,這些是淨數字,而不是總數。因此,從總體來看,該指導金額將達到 9 億美元至 14 億美元,即高出 5 億美元。
You asked about the credits. We have not sold our 2025 credits, and we said before, we'll continue to engage with the market. If we get a discount that I think is appropriate for the valuation for us, so we can then buy -- sell those credits, have cash come in quickly, but that cash in the bank have an interest income on that such that I'm effectively economically neutral to holding those credits and going for refundability, then we will look at potential sales. We've also said before, I think it's a pinhole risk but in a -- in an IRA risk environment, having sold those credits and received cash even though we would still bear the ultimate risk around any refusal to honor those credits by the IRS, we'll be in a better position with the cash being on our side of trends versus on the side of the government waiting for a payment to come through. So the credit facility there, we generated $300 million in Q1, about another $300 million forecast in Q2 that use about $1 billion of credit generation in the second half of the year.
您詢問了有關學分的問題。我們還沒有出售我們的2025年信用額度,我們之前說過,我們將繼續參與市場。如果我們獲得我認為適合我們估值的折扣,那麼我們就可以買賣這些信用額度,快速獲得現金,但銀行中的現金會產生利息收入,這樣我在經濟上實際上對持有這些信用額度和尋求可退款性是中立的,然後我們才會考慮潛在的銷售。我們之前也說過,我認為這是一種針孔風險,但在 IRA 風險環境中,出售這些信用額度並收到現金後,即使我們仍然要承擔 IRS 拒絕兌現這些信用額度的最終風險,但如果現金站在我們這邊,而不是站在政府那邊等待付款,我們將處於更有利的地位。因此,我們在第一季產生了 3 億美元的信貸額度,預計第二季將再產生約 3 億美元的信貸額度,下半年將產生約 10 億美元的信貸額度。
And then we also have an untapped revolver. So we've got $1 billion of revolver capacity. We have used this previously to manage jurisdictional cash. It is easier to move money back from the international regions to the U.S. than it was prior to the 2017 tax reform, but it still doesn't come without some constraints on costs.
我們還有一把未開發的左輪手槍。因此,我們有 10 億美元的循環信貸容量。我們以前曾用它來管理司法現金。與 2017 年稅改前相比,將資金從國際地區轉回美國更容易,但仍受到一些成本限制。
So if we need to manage jurisdictional cash, that's something we can draw in the near term as well.
因此,如果我們需要管理司法現金,那麼這也是我們可以在短期內提取的。
Operator
Operator
Kashy Harrison, Piper Sandler.
卡西·哈里森、派珀·桑德勒。
Kashy Harrison - Analyst
Kashy Harrison - Analyst
So if we find ourselves in a situation where the final tariffs from Malaysia, Vietnam are 30% versus 20% versus 10%, can you help us think about what you do with those assets? Is there an ability to bring some of that equipment to the US for more US manufacturing? And then maybe how can we think about the deposits that currently are on your balance sheet that relate to the 12 or so gigawatts that you outlined in the prepared remarks?
因此,如果我們發現馬來西亞和越南的最終關稅分別為 30%、20% 和 10%,您能否幫助我們思考如何處理這些資產?是否有能力將部分設備運送到美國,以促進美國製造業的發展?那麼,我們是否可以考慮一下您資產負債表上目前與您在準備好的評論中概述的 12 千兆瓦左右相關的存款?
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
All right. I'll let Alex take deposit question. In terms of Kashy, there's a lot that we can do with those assets. And it's a matter of understanding the environment of which we can optimize against, right? So look, like I said, there's a couple of three key provisions included in the IRA that we're very obviously interested in and wanting to see what happens with.
好的。我會讓亞歷克斯回答存款問題。就 Kashy 而言,我們可以利用這些資產做很多事情。這是一個了解我們可以優化的環境的問題,對嗎?所以,就像我說的,IRA 中包含三個關鍵條款,我們顯然對此非常感興趣,並想看看會發生什麼。
One is the foreign entity of concern and what the implications are of that, that could meaningfully adversely impact the ability of Chinese owned and controlled companies to operate here in the US, which is meaningfully change the domestic supply chain, right? So that's important. The other is what happens with the 45X. And is it -- does it say as currently envisioned, does it change? There's lots of ways it could change.
一是令人擔憂的外國實體及其影響,這可能會對中國擁有和控制的公司在美國運營的能力產生重大不利影響,從而嚴重改變國內供應鏈,對嗎?所以這很重要。另一個是 45X 發生的情況。而且它 — — 是否按照目前的設想來說,它會改變嗎?有很多方法可以改變它。
It could change to the point of redistributing value to move some of the value of the $0.17 more upstream to minimize the value just on the module assembly, which, therefore, creates opportunity for a more robust valuation allocation towards technology, right? The requirement of a domestic content ITC, PTC that could change as well. And what that means once we know that, we can say, well, how are we going to optimize these assets, right? And there's one path, as you mentioned, could be bringing them into the US, redeploy them, maybe a more efficient and easier to market strategy could be is to do front-end processing in Malaysia, Vietnam and back-end finishing in the US. And therefore, when I'm bringing my module in or my component, declared value of my component, maybe it's 50% of the value of the module.
它可以改變價值重新分配的點,將 0.17 美元的部分價值轉移到更上游,以盡量減少模組組裝的價值,從而為技術更穩健的估值分配創造機會,對嗎?國內內容 ITC、PTC 的要求也可能會改變。一旦我們知道了這一點,我們就可以問,那麼,我們該如何優化這些資產呢?對吧?正如您所說,有一條途徑可以將它們帶到美國,重新部署,也許更有效、更容易行銷的策略是在馬來西亞、越南進行前端處理,在美國進行後端加工。因此,當我引入模組或組件時,組件的聲明值可能是模組值的 50%。
Therefore, I'm taking the impact of the tariff and cutting it in half. And I could put finishing line, for example, on the West Coast, where I don't have an operation today. And I can bring product into the US more economically because shipping into the West Coast is cheaper than it is shipping to the East Coast. And I don't have a presence here today, right?
因此,我要承擔關稅的影響並將其削減一半。例如,我可以把終點線設在西海岸,因為今天我沒有在那裡進行手術。而且我可以更經濟地將產品運往美國,因為運往西海岸比運往東海岸更便宜。我今天不在這裡,對嗎?
And if there's still some value of the 45X, now I got a 45X value because I'm doing finishing here in the US as well. So there's lots of things that we can do. And also when you do a semi-finished product, you actually can reduce your sales freight because you're getting more sheets of glass into a container because you don't have a frame and a junction box and all that kind of stuff, right? So there's a lot that we can do that can optimize those assets.
如果 45X 仍然有一定的價值,那麼現在我得到了 45X 的價值,因為我也在美國完成了。所以我們可以做很多事。而且,當您生產半成品時,您實際上可以減少銷售運費,因為您可以將更多的玻璃板裝入貨櫃,因為您沒有框架和接線盒以及所有這些東西,對嗎?因此,我們可以做很多事情來優化這些資產。
And obviously, the talent of the associates that we have in those facilities. But I don't know the strategy yet until I know what becomes enduring post budget reconciliation. So once we know that, we know what game we have to play and we know what levers that we're going to go after, but where we sit today, there's a lot of uncertainty.
顯然,這些設施的員工都很有才華。但我還不知道該採取什麼策略,直到我知道持久的預算協調之後再說。所以,一旦我們知道了這一點,我們就知道我們要玩什麼遊戲,我們知道我們要追求什麼槓桿,但我們今天所處的位置存在著許多不確定性。
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Kashy, on the deposits, so we said by year-end, we'll have about 12 gigawatts in the backlog that has these tariff revisions that could be theoretically at risk. If you look at that, it's somewhere in the region of $3 billion of revenue. And if you look at the average deposit we have in the backlog, I mean, there's $1.9 billion against the numbers that we showed is about 10%. So in theory, you've got about $300 million that could be at risk.
是的。Kashy,關於存款,我們說過,到年底,我們將有大約 12 千兆瓦的積壓電力,這些電力的關稅修訂在理論上可能存在風險。如果你看一下,你會發現它的收入大約在 30 億美元左右。如果你看一下我們積壓的平均存款,我的意思是,有 19 億美元,而我們所顯示的數字約為 10%。因此從理論上講,大約有 3 億美元可能面臨風險。
A couple of things I would comment on. One is we've yet to engage with many customers, as Mark mentioned earlier, especially those are projects in the near term. I think many customers are going to want this product. They don't want to cancel. They're trying to work through and find ways to make this tariff situation works for them.
有幾件事我想評論一下。一是我們尚未與許多客戶接觸,正如馬克之前提到的,尤其是那些近期的專案。我認為很多顧客都會想要這個產品。他們不想取消。他們正在努力尋找方法來讓這種關稅狀況對他們有利。
The second is, although we're near term constrained with domestic product, if the contracts are further out, and we have the ability to supply domestic contract, those can always be flip to if we wish to do so.
第二,儘管我們短期內受到國內產品的限制,但如果合同期限更長,並且我們有能力提供國內合同,那麼如果我們願意的話,總是可以轉向這些合同。
Operator
Operator
Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的 Brian Lee。
Brian Lee - Analyst
Brian Lee - Analyst
I had two. A lot have been covered here. But I guess on the guidance, just wanted to understand kind of the strategy here. At the high end, Alex, Mark, you mentioned 1.8 gigawatts from Southeast Asia. They're still included even with the 10% universal tariff.
我有兩個。這裡已經涵蓋了很多內容。但我想,在指導上,只是想了解這裡的策略。在高端,亞歷克斯、馬克,你們提到了來自東南亞的 1.8 千兆瓦。即使徵收 10% 的普遍關稅,這些費用仍然包括在內。
So I guess is the approach you're just taking lower margin there for this year? Or are you actually planning to pass some of those costs on and that's why you're keeping it in the high end of the guide. And then just curious, as it relates to, I guess, '26 volumes from Malaysia and Vietnam, is 10% tariffs remain like -- is the plan to adjust contracts? Or is it just going to be a lower margin volume base for you? And then the second question for you, just kind of a follow-up to the earlier question around module finishing capacity.
所以我猜你們今年的做法就是降低利潤率?或者您實際上是否計劃轉嫁部分成本,這就是為什麼您將其保持在指南的高端。然後我很好奇,我想,這與馬來西亞和越南的 26 批產品有關,10% 的關稅是否保持不變——是否有調整合約的計劃?或者這對您來說只是較低的利潤量基礎?然後我要問您的第二個問題,只是關於模組完成能力的先前問題的後續問題。
I think you had mentioned, Mark, you're already assuming some volumes for excess finishing capacity in the US coming from Vietnam and Malaysia. Can you remind us what that is for this year? And then I know the gating factor is policy, but what -- what sort of the timeline and cost to maybe match up finishing capacity in the US with the Southeast Asia capacity, if that's what you added up decided to do?
馬克,我想你已經提過,你已經假設美國過剩的精加工產能有一部分來自越南和馬來西亞。你能提醒我們今年的狀況嗎?然後我知道限制因素是政策,但是——如果這就是你決定要做的,那麼將美國的完成能力與東南亞的產能相匹配需要什麼樣的時間表和成本呢?
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
Alexander Bradley - Chief Financial Officer
So Brian, on the guidance. So the strategy we've taken is on the high end, we're assuming 10% tariffs. And right now, the numbers that you're seeing are assuming that those would be all for us in our financials. Now that isn't going to be our approach and strategy with customers are going out and have discussions. So we've represented the numbers that way for now until we are going to have those discussions.
那麼 Brian,請給予指導。因此,我們採取的策略是高端的,我們假設關稅為 10%。而現在,您所看到的數字是假設這些對我們的財務來說都是全部。現在,這不再是我們與客戶出去討論的方法和策略了。因此,我們暫時以這種方式表示數字,直到我們進行這些討論為止。
We do have some inventory that is in the US prior to the tariff announcements. We have some that was on the water that will come in ahead of the tariff effectiveness given that there's a window to get product in and some that was already made and therefore, it is worth bringing in here at the 10% rate versus holding it in Malaysia, Vietnam, pending uncertainty in the future. So we will have some products in here. We'll go and have discussions with customers around the tariff applications of that.
在關稅公告發布之前,我們確實在美國有一些庫存。我們有一些在水上運輸的產品,這些產品將在關稅生效之前運來,因為現在有進口產品的窗口期,還有一些已經生產出來的產品,因此,值得以 10% 的稅率進口到這裡,而不是將其留在馬來西亞、越南,等待未來的不確定性。所以我們會在這裡推出一些產品。我們將與客戶討論該關稅的應用。
As it relates to 2026, I think it's too early to say what we would do. As Mark commented, there's a lot of optionality that we have around those plants once we understand what the rest of the policy environment looks like. But right now, there's just too much uncertainty to make a call.
鑑於這與 2026 年有關,我認為現在說我們會做什麼還為時過早。正如馬克所說,一旦我們了解了其餘的政策環境,我們就可以在那些工廠周圍有很多選擇。但目前,不確定性實在太大,難以做出決定。
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And I would say this, Brian, as it relates to the -- yes, we are doing some of it this year. Most of it, 2/3 of it has already happened. And so we don't have a lot yet currently in the second half, but we're evaluating potentially expanding it depending on how the conversations with customers go. And if we get good clarity around the need for the volume, we would look to bring more of that into the USas a semi-finished product and then finish it here in the US and then obviously deliver -- obviously, better economics. So that's something we're looking at. But again, we're somewhat constrained in doing that just because of what capacity we have, but there's still a reasonable amount of volume we can bring in yet contingent upon demand from customers. In terms of getting that finishing line up and running, it's somewhat contingent to the having a building.
是的。布萊恩,我想說的是,這涉及到——是的,我們今年正在做一些這樣的事情。大部分,也就是 2/3 已經發生了。因此,目前我們在下半年還沒有太多計劃,但我們正在根據與客戶的對話情況評估擴大計劃的可能性。如果我們清楚地了解了對產量的需求,我們會考慮將更多的半成品引入美國,然後在美國完成加工,最終實現更好的經濟效益。這就是我們正在關注的事情。但是,由於我們的產能,我們在這方面受到一定限制,但根據客戶的需求,我們仍然可以獲得合理數量的數量。就終點線的建成和運作而言,這在某種程度上取決於是否有一棟建築物。
So let's assume we find a building. And for a finishing line, it's not as challenging or complex of a specification as a full length production facility for us. and then you got to obviously move the tools. So you're probably within, call it, 9 to 12 months if everything goes well from the time of making a decision. It's a matter of the timing when you're willing to lean into that decision.
因此我們假設找到了一棟建築物。對我們來說,對於一條整理線來說,它的挑戰性或規格複雜性並不像全長生產設施那麼高。然後你顯然必須移動工具。因此,如果從做出決定開始一切進展順利的話,您可能需要 9 到 12 個月的時間。這是一個你願意接受這個決定的時機問題。
And it's going to be contingent upon that reconciliation process and how quickly it gets done. That's going to be the gating factor. And depending on what your scenario is on that, that could be late Q3 or in Q4.
這將取決於和解進程及其完成的速度。這將成為限制因素。根據您的設想,這可能是在第三季末或第四季。
Operator
Operator
Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.
朱利安·杜穆林·史密斯(Julien Dumoulin-Smith),傑富瑞集團(Jefferies)。
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Analyst
Just following up a little bit on the 12 gigawatts guys. You -- just relative to the 66 gigawatts of backlog that we're talking about, how do you think about the repricing risk on the balance sheet? I just wanted to kind of go back and make sure that we firmly heard you. With respect to tariff contract reopeners or other change of law considerations here that if you take the 66 minus 12, if you think about the -- any other permutations, whether it's tariff, AD/CVD or frankly, just changing how you're supplying the mix of US versus foreign how you think about restriking or repricing any of these contracts beyond the 12 gigawatts identified here.
只是稍微跟進一下 12 千兆瓦的人。您 - 僅相對於我們正在談論的 66 千兆瓦的積壓訂單,您如何看待資產負債表上的重新定價風險?我只是想回去確保我們清楚地聽到了你的聲音。關於重新開放關稅合約或其他法律變更考慮,如果您將 66 減 12,如果您考慮 - 任何其他排列組合,無論是關稅、反傾銷/反補貼稅,還是坦率地說,只是改變您供應美國與外國組合的方式,您如何考慮重新簽訂或重新定價任何超過此處確定的 12 千兆瓦的合約。
And even within the 12 gigawatts, if you can speak a little bit more. If you do the finishing lines, is that a de facto holding your commitment in contract terms such that they aren't reevaluated? Or is that the 12 gigawatt decision tree here effectively is the 12 gigawatts effectively going -- the decision tree on the finishing line effectively going to be done in partner partnership with your contract, your customers?
即使在 12 千兆瓦以內,如果你能多說一點的話。如果您完成了終點線,這是否實際上就履行了合約條款中的承諾,以至於它們不會被重新評估?或者,這裡的 12 千兆瓦決策樹實際上是 12 千兆瓦有效地進行 - 終點線上的決策樹實際上將與您的合約、您的客戶在合作夥伴關係中完成?
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So as it relates to the remaining 54 gigawatts or so of volume, there's no repricing risk on that. That is either it's essentially all domestic product for the US. There may be a little bit in there for India, but India mainly falls through as a contract is subject to CP because we don't book it until -- until we have the security. So if there's any amount of Indian there it's de minimia.
是的。因此,就剩餘的 54 千兆瓦左右的容量而言,不存在重新定價的風險。也就是說,這基本上都是美國的國內產品。印度可能有一點,但印度基本上會失敗,因為合約受 CP 約束,因為我們直到獲得擔保後才會預訂。因此,如果那裡有任何數量的印度人,那也是微不足道的。
So it's really for all domestic product that will be delivered over the next several years as we increase our capacity up to 14 gigawatts. So there's no -- there's no real repricing risk on the balance. The 12 gigawatts is -- it will be 100% tied to the conversations that we have with customers. And as indicated, it's the one example, talking with a customer for delivery in 2026, yes. As I told them, I said, look, as of right now, if the reciprocal tariffs were to be put in place, I will not have product for you.
因此,隨著我們的產能增加到 14 千兆瓦,這實際上適用於未來幾年交付的所有國內產品。因此,不存在——不存在真正的重新定價風險。12 千兆瓦-它將 100% 與我們與客戶的對話相關。正如所指出的,這是一個例子,與客戶談論 2026 年交貨,是的。正如我告訴他們的那樣,我說,看,從現在起,如果實施互惠關稅,我就沒有產品給你們了。
And then they immediately reacted, well, what do I do then? And do you have domestic supply for me? And the answer is no, I don't. And so -- and I can't get quick capacity that would be able to fullfill that gap other than a finishing line, but I can't make the decision on the finishing line until I have an understanding of what the IRA profile is going to look like, right? So what that means is that assuming there's some flexibility to the country-specific rates and Vietnam comes down from 46% to some more manageable number maybe in the 10% to 20% range.
然後他們立即做出反應,那我該怎麼辦?你們有國內供應給我嗎?答案是否定的,我不知道。所以——除了終點線之外,我無法獲得能夠填補這一差距的快速能力,但在我了解 IRA 概況之前,我無法對終點線做出決定,對嗎?所以這意味著假設特定國家稅率具有一定的彈性,越南的稅率將從 46% 降至更容易管理的數字,可能在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內。
And then there's probably going to be an outcome with a customer on the portion of that volume that would result in a higher ASP and in requirements to deliver the product. So that's all the stuff that we've got to work through. And I don't have answers to it yet.
然後,客戶可能會對該部分銷售產生影響,從而導致更高的平均售價和交付產品的要求。這就是我們必須解決的所有問題。但我還沒有答案。
But I also want to make sure in our discussions with our customers is that I am more than willing to take a tough call on this that would require us to shut a facility in a situation where the rates are extremely high because I don't want to walk myself into by keeping that factory open and now you're leveraging against yourself a negotiation. And I don't want to be in that situation. So our position is going to be what we know of right now, it's probable that those factories may not continue to operate if there are reciprocal tariffs go in place, but we'll know more once we negotiate with customers and how they see it. And we'll know more once we know about the IRA and what the options we can use to leverage that.
但我還想確保,在與客戶的討論中,我非常願意做出艱難的決定,這將要求我們在利率極高的情況下關閉一家工廠,因為我不想讓自己陷入繼續開工的境地,而現在你是在利用談判來對抗自己。我不想陷入那種境地。因此,我們的立場就是我們現在所知道的情況,如果實施互惠關稅,這些工廠可能無法繼續運營,但一旦我們與客戶談判並了解他們的看法,我們就會了解更多資訊。一旦我們了解了 IRA 以及我們可以利用哪些選項來利用它,我們就會知道更多。
But -- so a lot of uncertainty, as I indicated. And obviously, it's changed significantly from the last earnings call. And we're trying to be as transparent here with everyone, so you guys know what we're thinking about. Okay.
但是——正如我所指出的,存在著許多不確定性。顯然,這與上次財報電話會議相比發生了很大變化。我們試著對每個人都保持透明,以便你們知道我們在想什麼。好的。
Operator
Operator
And everyone --
和每個人--
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mark Widmar - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Go ahead.
前進。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir, and everyone. That does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation.
謝謝先生,也謝謝大家。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。