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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to First Solar's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call.
大家下午好,歡迎參加 First Solar 2020 年第三季度財報電話會議。
This call is being webcast live on the Investors section of First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com.
此次電話會議正在 First Solar 網站investor.firstsolar.com 的投資者部分進行網絡直播。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
(操作員說明)作為提醒,今天的通話正在錄音中。
I'd now like to turn the call over to Mitch Ennis from First Solar Investor Relations.
我現在想把電話轉給 First Solar 投資者關係部的 Mitch Ennis。
Mr. Ennis, you may begin.
恩尼斯先生,你可以開始了。
Mitchell Ennis - Manager of IR
Mitchell Ennis - Manager of IR
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us.
大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。
Today, the company issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2020 financial results.
今天,該公司發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了其 2020 年第三季度的財務業績。
A copy of the press release and associated presentation are available on First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com.
新聞稿和相關演示文稿的副本可在 First Solar 的網站investor.firstsolar.com 上獲得。
With me today are Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer; and Alex Bradley, Chief Financial Officer.
今天和我在一起的是首席執行官 Mark Widmar;和首席財務官亞歷克斯布拉德利。
Mark will begin by providing a business and technology update, Alex will then discuss our financial results for the quarter and provide updated guidance for 2020.
馬克將首先提供業務和技術更新,然後亞歷克斯將討論我們本季度的財務業績並提供 2020 年的更新指導。
Following their remarks, we'll open the call for questions.
在他們的發言之後,我們將開始提問。
Please note, this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations, including, among other risks and uncertainties, the severity and duration of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.
請注意,本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與管理層當前的預期產生重大差異,其中包括 COVID-19 大流行影響的嚴重性和持續時間等風險和不確定性.
We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation for a more complete description.
我們鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明,以獲得更完整的描述。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer.
現在我很高興介紹首席執行官 Mark Widmar。
Mark?
標記?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Thank you, Mitch.
謝謝你,米奇。
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today.
下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。
I would like to start by thanking the First Solar team for delivering a solid third quarter.
首先,我要感謝 First Solar 團隊提供了穩健的第三季度。
Our operational and financial results were strong, and market demand for our Series 6 technology continues to be robust.
我們的運營和財務業績強勁,市場對我們的 Series 6 技術的需求持續強勁。
We had a number of highlights since our last earnings call, including record Series 6 quarterly production of 1.5 gigawatts.
自上次財報電話會議以來,我們有許多亮點,包括創紀錄的 1.5 吉瓦系列 6 季度產量。
Solid bookings of 1.6 gigawatt, commercial production of 445-watt module; and earnings per share of $1.45, bringing our year-to-date earnings to $2.65.
1.6 吉瓦的穩定預訂,445 瓦模塊的商業生產;每股收益為 1.45 美元,使我們年初至今的收益達到 2.65 美元。
Our Q3 financial results were driven by a module segment gross margin increase as well as sales of systems projects.
我們第三季度的財務業績受到模塊部門毛利率增長以及系統項目銷售的推動。
While significant uncertainty remain as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are pleased with our year-to-date performance as a result of the improved visibility provided by the closing of certain systems project sales, we are reinstating financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2020.
儘管 COVID-19 大流行仍存在重大不確定性,但由於某些系統項目銷售的結束提高了可見性,我們對年初至今的表現感到滿意,我們正在恢復第四次財務指導2020 年第四季度。
Alex will discuss our financial performance and guidance in greater detail.
亞歷克斯將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績和指導。
Turning to Slide 3. I'll first discuss our module segment performance.
轉到幻燈片 3。我將首先討論我們的模塊部分性能。
Year-to-date, we have produced 4.9 gigawatts including 4.7 gigawatt of Series 6. With each factory averaging over 100% capacity utilization during the third quarter.
年初至今,我們已經生產了 4.9 吉瓦,包括 4.7 吉瓦系列 6。第三季度每個工廠的平均產能利用率超過 100%。
Throughput was led by our international factories, which averaged 118% and 119% capacity utilization in September and October month-to-date.
吞吐量由我們的國際工廠引領,截至目前,9 月和 10 月的平均產能利用率分別為 118% 和 119%。
Domestically, our Ohio 1 and Ohio 2 factories are performing well, averaging 109% and 121% over the same period.
在國內,我們的俄亥俄 1 和俄亥俄 2 工廠表現良好,同期平均增長 109% 和 121%。
On a fleet-wide basis, in September and October month-to-date, megawatts produced per day was 16.9% and 17.9%.
在整個船隊的基礎上,9 月和 10 月至今,每天產生的兆瓦數分別為 16.9% 和 17.9%。
Manufacturing yield was 96.6% and 97.2%.
製造良率分別為96.6%和97.2%。
Average watts per module was 436 and 438 watts, and the ARC bin distribution from 435 to 445-watt modules was 92% and 96%.
每個模塊的平均瓦數分別為 436 和 438 瓦,從 435 到 445 瓦模塊的 ARC bin 分佈分別為 92% 和 96%。
At the time of our third quarter 2019 earnings call, we had recently validated a new world record 447-watt cad tel module.
在 2019 年第三季度財報電話會議上,我們最近驗證了一個新的世界紀錄 447 瓦 cad tel 模塊。
Building on this, we have implemented these learnings and started commercial production of a 445-watt module.
在此基礎上,我們實施了這些學習並開始了 445 瓦模塊的商業生產。
Continuing this momentum over the next few quarters, we expect our top bin to increase further to 455 watts.
在接下來的幾個季度中繼續這種勢頭,我們預計我們的頂部垃圾箱將進一步增加到 455 瓦。
In September and October month-to-date, our Vietnam factories achieved a manufacturing yield of 98%.
9 月和 10 月至今,我們的越南工廠實現了 98% 的製造良率。
We continue to implement the learnings and best practices across the fleet with a fleet-wide yield target of 98% for our current manufacturing footprint by the end of 2021.
我們將繼續在整個車隊中實施學習和最佳實踐,到 2021 年底,我們目前的製造足蹟的整個車隊的產量目標為 98%。
In the future, we see the potential to incrementally improve beyond this target.
在未來,我們看到了在這個目標之外逐步改進的潛力。
As noted previously, continued throughput, module watts, and manufacturing yield improvements will help drive down our module cost per watt.
如前所述,持續的吞吐量、模塊瓦數和製造良率的提高將有助於降低我們的每瓦模塊成本。
Since the previous earnings call, we have not experienced significant disruption to our manufacturing operations from the pandemic.
自上次財報電話會議以來,我們的製造業務並未因大流行而受到重大干擾。
Much of our ability to mitigate the potential impact stems from our vertically integrated manufacturing process, diversified supply chain and differentiated cad tel technology.
我們減輕潛在影響的大部分能力源於我們垂直整合的製造流程、多樣化的供應鍊和差異化的 cad tel 技術。
By contrast, the largest PV molecule manufacturers globally produce crystalline silicon modules using a batch process technology with multiple process steps.
相比之下,全球最大的光伏分子製造商使用具有多個工藝步驟的批處理技術生產晶體矽模塊。
None of these manufacturers are fully vertically integrated and rely to varying degrees on third-party sourcing of polysilicon, ingots, wafers themselves.
這些製造商中沒有一家是完全垂直整合的,並且在不同程度上依賴第三方採購多晶矽、矽錠、晶圓本身。
Production of a single crystalline silicon module requires each of these process steps, several factories in multiple days.
單晶矽組件的生產需要這些工藝步驟中的每一個,需要數天數家工廠。
During the third quarter, several polysilicon producers experienced significant disruptions that hindered their ability to maintain manufacturing operations.
在第三季度,幾家多晶矽生產商經歷了嚴重的中斷,阻礙了他們維持生產運營的能力。
This disruption, coupled with the supply chain largely concentrated among a few Chinese companies reduced the available supply of polysilicon.
這種中斷,加上供應鍊主要集中在少數中國公司中,減少了多晶矽的可用供應。
The polysilicon price increase that followed resulted in downstream pricing pressures for wafer cells and modules and consequently, for project developers.
隨後的多晶矽價格上漲導致晶圓電池和模塊的下游定價壓力,從而對項目開發商造成壓力。
While the market for polysilicon has since improved, these events highlight the benefits of our vertically integrated manufacturing process, which enables price and delivery time certainty for customer orders within our contracted backlog.
雖然此後多晶矽市場有所改善,但這些事件凸顯了我們垂直整合製造工藝的優勢,這使得我們的合同積壓訂單內的客戶訂單的價格和交貨時間確定性。
From a shipping and logistics perspective, the most significant impact to date remains the challenging global freight market.
從航運和物流的角度來看,迄今為止最重大的影響仍然是充滿挑戰的全球貨運市場。
While limited freight capacity has increased spot rates, our logistics strategy, which primarily relies on forward shipping contracts has helped reduce this impact.
雖然有限的貨運能力提高了即期運費,但我們主要依賴遠期運輸合同的物流戰略有助於減少這種影響。
Regarding our capacity road map, we have received the major equipment required to commence commercial production at our sixth Series 6 factory in Malaysia.
關於我們的產能路線圖,我們已經收到了在馬來西亞第六家 6 系列工廠開始商業生產所需的主要設備。
However, as highlighted during our second quarter earnings call, third-party equipment vendors as well as our U.S.-based associates are needed on-site for tool installation.
然而,正如我們在第二季度財報電話會議中強調的那樣,第三方設備供應商以及我們在美國的員工需要現場安裝工具。
Currently, all non-citizens traveling to Malaysia must have explicit written permission from the Malaysian authorities prior to arrival and are subject to mandatory 14-day quarantine period.
目前,所有前往馬來西亞的非公民必須在抵達前獲得馬來西亞當局的明確書面許可,並必須接受 14 天的強制隔離期。
While several vendors have received the necessary travel approvals, we are continuing to collaborate with the relevant agencies to gain approval for the remaining travel in a safe and timely manner.
雖然一些供應商已獲得必要的旅行批准,但我們將繼續與相關機構合作,以安全、及時的方式獲得剩餘旅行的批准。
Delays in the approval process and compliance with required isolation procedures have the potential to impact the timing of commercial production and consequently, our full year 2021 production plan.
批准過程的延遲和對所需隔離程序的遵守可能會影響商業生產的時間,從而影響我們的 2021 年全年生產計劃。
Despite this uncertainty, we continue to evaluate opportunities across our existing manufacturing footprint to further increase our production and capacity entitlement.
儘管存在這種不確定性,我們仍將繼續評估我們現有製造足蹟的機會,以進一步增加我們的生產和產能權利。
Touching on the systems segment.
觸及系統部分。
Our EPS results was favorably impacted by the sale of 3 projects in Japan and 2 in India.
我們的每股收益業績受到日本 3 個項目和印度 2 個項目的銷售的有利影響。
With the sale of our American Kings project in Q2, the Japan and India sales in Q3 and with the potential sale of the Sun Streams 2 project in Q4 2020, we have a viable path to close each project sale contemplated in our original 2020 guidance from February.
隨著我們在第二季度出售美國國王項目、在第三季度出售日本和印度以及可能在 2020 年第四季度出售 Sun Streams 2 項目,我們有一條可行的途徑來完成我們最初的 2020 年指導中設想的每個項目出售二月。
Turning to Slide 4. I'd like to highlight the bookings and shipment activity for the quarter.
轉到幻燈片 4。我想強調本季度的預訂和發貨活動。
In September, we were awarded a PPA for 180-megawatt AC solar project, with the option for future energy storage located in Arkansas.
9 月,我們獲得了 180 兆瓦交流太陽能項目的購電協議,該項目可以選擇在阿肯色州進行未來的儲能。
This project will support the clean energy needs of 3 General Motors facilities in the Midwest starting in 2023.
該項目將從 2023 年開始支持通用汽車在中西部的 3 個設施的清潔能源需求。
Closing off of this, and the recent PPAs we have signed with Verizon and Dow, we are witnessing leading corporations taking bold steps to reduce their environmental footprint and doing so supported by technology developed and manufactured in the United States.
結束這一點,以及我們最近與 Verizon 和陶氏簽署的 PPA,我們見證了領先的公司採取大膽的措施來減少他們的環境足跡,並在美國開發和製造的技術的支持下這樣做。
As the only U.S. headquartered company among the 10 largest PV module manufacturers globally, with the differentiated cad tel technology of lowest carbon footprint and water usage, and a leading PV module recycling program that recovers 90% or more of the glass, metals and cad tel semiconductor materials, we are well positioned to address this market need.
作為全球 10 大光伏組件製造商中唯一一家總部位於美國的公司,擁有最低碳足跡和用水量的差異化 cad tel 技術,以及可回收 90% 或更多玻璃、金屬和 cad tel 的領先光伏組件回收計劃半導體材料,我們有能力滿足這一市場需求。
Additionally, it has been an active quarter for our systems business in Japan as we continued success adding to our contracted backlog with the addition of 2 projects totaling approximately 80 megawatts.
此外,這對我們在日本的系統業務來說是一個活躍的季度,因為我們繼續成功地增加了我們的合同積壓,增加了 2 個總計約 80 兆瓦的項目。
From a third-party module sales perspective, Series 6 demand has been robust.
從第三方模塊銷售的角度來看,Series 6 的需求一直很強勁。
Among other bookings, as announced last week, we secured a 0.9 gigawatt of volume from Vistra Energy for delivery scheduled in 2021 and 2022.
在上周宣布的其他訂單中,我們從 Vistra Energy 獲得了 0.9 吉瓦的容量,計劃於 2021 年和 2022 年交付。
As part of this deal, our Series 6 technology will support 6 projects in Texas, a region that leverages our temperature coefficient, spectral response, durability and quality advantages.
作為這筆交易的一部分,我們的 6 系列技術將支持德克薩斯州的 6 個項目,該地區利用我們的溫度係數、光譜響應、耐用性和質量優勢。
As the U.S. solar technology provider, we are proud to play a supporting role of Vistra's commitment to achieving net 0 carbon emissions by 2050.
作為美國太陽能技術供應商,我們很自豪能夠在瑞致達承諾到 2050 年實現零碳排放的承諾中發揮支持作用。
As highlighted during our Q2 earnings call, we've had a significant volume of 2021 opportunities that were in late-stage negotiations, but were delayed due to uncertainty in the tax equity market.
正如我們在第二季度財報電話會議中所強調的那樣,我們有大量的 2021 年機會處於後期談判中,但由於稅收股票市場的不確定性而被推遲。
While Alex will provide a more detailed tax equity market update, I would like to note that visibility into 2021 tax capacity has modestly improved, and we secured 0.5 gigawatts of 2021 opportunities since the previous earnings call.
雖然亞歷克斯將提供更詳細的稅收股票市場更新,但我想指出,對 2021 年稅收能力的可見性有所提高,自上次財報電話會議以來,我們獲得了 0.5 吉瓦的 2021 年機會。
Additionally, demand in 2022 and 2023 have been strong with 0.9 gigawatts of bookings since the previous earnings call.
此外,自上次財報電話會議以來,2022 年和 2023 年的需求一直強勁,預訂量為 0.9 吉瓦。
As a result of the recent systems and third-party module wins, net bookings since the previous earnings call, totaled 1.6 gigawatts across 1.5 gigawatts of third-party modules and 0.1 gigawatts of systems bookings.
由於最近的系統和第三方模塊獲勝,自上次財報電話會議以來的淨預訂量總計為 1.6 吉瓦,第三方模塊為 1.5 吉瓦,系統預訂量為 0.1 吉瓦。
Additionally, while not yet meeting all the requirements of a booking, we have contracted 0.6 gigawatts subject to conditions precedent for expected deliveries in 2021 and 2023.
此外,雖然尚未滿足預訂的所有要求,但我們已根據 2021 年和 2023 年預期交付的先決條件簽訂了 0.6 吉瓦的合同。
Note, the project associated with General Motors PPA has been sold in conjunction with a module-first order and has been recognized as third-party module booking.
請注意,與通用汽車 PPA 相關的項目已與模塊優先訂單一起出售,並已被確認為第三方模塊預訂。
Included these most recent bookings, we have 6.7 gigawatts booked for deliveries in 2021 and 3.6 gigawatts booked for deliveries across 2022 and 2023.
包括這些最近的預訂,我們預訂了 6.7 吉瓦的 2021 年交付量和 3.6 吉瓦的 2022 年和 2023 年交付量。
Q3, we shipped 1.2 gigawatts resulting in year-to-date shipments through the end of the third quarter of 3.7 gigawatts.
第三季度,我們出貨了 1.2 吉瓦,導致今年截至第三季度末的出貨量為 3.7 吉瓦。
As mentioned during our Q1 earnings call in May, our shipment profile has been back-weighted to the second half of the year.
正如我們在 5 月份的第一季度財報電話會議中所提到的,我們的出貨量已經回溯到今年下半年。
Despite this profile, our year-to-date shipments, including the third quarter, have been below our expectations from the start of the year, largely due to the combinations for COVID-19-driven customer project and financing delays.
儘管存在這種情況,但我們年初至今的出貨量(包括第三季度)一直低於我們年初的預期,這主要是由於 COVID-19 驅動的客戶項目和融資延遲的組合。
Before delving into the specifics of our pipeline of bookings opportunities, it's important to highlight that some of the trends we are seeing, including the impact of COVID-19 on the near and long-term growth of solar installations globally.
在深入研究我們的預訂機會渠道的細節之前,重要的是要強調我們看到的一些趨勢,包括 COVID-19 對全球太陽能裝置近期和長期增長的影響。
In the United States, the EIA forecasts that approximately 14 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity will be added in 2020.
在美國,EIA 預測 2020 年將增加約 14 吉瓦的公用事業規模太陽能容量。
This strong demand is led by several states, including Texas, California, North Carolina, Nevada and Virginia, each with near-term development pipelines exceeding 1 gigawatt.
這種強勁的需求是由幾個州帶動的,包括德克薩斯州、加利福尼亞州、北卡羅來納州、內華達州和弗吉尼亞州,每個州的近期開發管道都超過 1 吉瓦。
The continued growth of the utility scale of solar despite the pandemic-related headwinds speaks to the relative health of the U.S. market.
儘管存在與大流行相關的不利因素,但太陽能公用事業規模的持續增長說明了美國市場的相對健康。
Internationally, the impact of the pandemic has varied by market.
在國際上,大流行的影響因市場而異。
While China remains the world's largest solar market and installed capacity is expected to increase year-over-year, it has seen project completion time line slipped due to the pandemic.
儘管中國仍然是世界上最大的太陽能市場,並且預計裝機容量將逐年增加,但由於大流行,項目完成時間線有所下滑。
Despite these challenges, the country's 14th 5-year plan scheduled to be launched in 2021 is expected to call for targets of at least 60 gigawatts per year of installed PV capacity, or approximately 300 gigawatts over the duration of the plan.
儘管面臨這些挑戰,該國計劃於 2021 年啟動的第 14 個五年計劃預計將要求每年至少 60 吉瓦的光伏裝機容量目標,或在計劃期間約 300 吉瓦。
In Europe, we anticipate a contraction in new installed capacity if countries like France, extend project COD deadlines by 6 months to accommodate for COVID-19-related delays.
在歐洲,如果像法國這樣的國家將項目 COD 的最後期限延長 6 個月以適應與 COVID-19 相關的延誤,我們預計新裝機容量將收縮。
In India, despite a 5-month COD extension, delays caused by a combination of the pandemic and the seasonal monsoons are expected to take a toll on the country's aggregate installed capacity this year.
在印度,儘管 COD 延長了 5 個月,但由於大流行和季節性季風共同造成的延誤預計將對該國今年的總裝機容量造成影響。
While the global PV industry has clearly not been immune to the pandemic's impact, some developments this year will shape the long-term future of the industry.
儘管全球光伏行業顯然未能倖免於大流行的影響,但今年的一些發展將塑造該行業的長期未來。
The first of these is a range of new policy designed to decarbonize electricity and mobility, further while powering post-pandemic economic recovery plans.
其中第一個是一系列旨在使電力和流動性脫碳的新政策,同時進一步推動大流行後的經濟復甦計劃。
Arguably, the most wide-ranging example is the European Green Deal, which is aimed to transform the block into a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 by decarbonizing electricity and transportation.
可以說,最廣泛的例子是歐洲綠色協議,該協議旨在通過使電力和運輸脫碳,到 2050 年將該地區轉變為碳中和經濟體。
The Green Deal, which could make solar the #1 source of electricity in Europe by 2025 is an example of how political leaders are bundling post-pandemic economic recovery with decarbonization commitments.
到 2025 年,可以使太陽能成為歐洲第一大電力來源的綠色協議是政治領導人如何將大流行後經濟復甦與脫碳承諾捆綁在一起的一個例子。
The other comment, I would like to note is the growing recognition of the importance of self reliance and a diversified solar supply chain in some of the world's biggest solar markets.
我想指出的另一條評論是,在一些世界上最大的太陽能市場中,人們越來越認識到自力更生和多元化太陽能供應鏈的重要性。
A combination of factors, including governmental policy, increasingly tense bilateral relationships, the pandemic and pricing and supply volatility in the crystalline silicon industry has reignited the debate around risk posed by allowing a single country to dominate the PV solar supply chain.
包括政府政策、日益緊張的雙邊關係、大流行以及晶體矽行業的價格和供應波動在內的多種因素重新引發了圍繞允許單一國家主導光伏太陽能供應鏈所帶來的風險的爭論。
Responses have been varied with new rules that favor PV modules with a lower carbon footprint in South Korea, while India and Europe have renewed talks on domestic manufacturing.
韓國的新規則有利於碳足跡較低的光伏組件,而印度和歐洲重新就國內製造進行了談判,對此反應各不相同。
Earlier this month, the United States, the President issued a proclamation revoking the exemption of bifacial panels from the application of the Section 201 safeguard tariffs.
本月早些時候,美國總統發佈公告,撤銷雙面面板豁免適用的 201 條款保障關稅。
Although this exemption is currently subject to a temporary restraining order preventing the presidential bifacial exemption revocation from taking effect.
儘管這項豁免目前受制於臨時限制令,阻止總統雙面豁免撤銷生效。
A common thread, however, is an underlying desire to boost supply certainty and security, while safeguarding domestic manufacturing from unfair competition.
然而,共同的主線是提高供應確定性和安全性的潛在願望,同時保護國內製造業免受不公平競爭。
In summary, we believe our investment thesis remains inviting as we are well-positioned to benefit from the current dynamics in the solar industry.
總而言之,我們相信我們的投資論點仍然具有吸引力,因為我們處於有利位置,可以從太陽能行業的當前動態中受益。
As shown on Slide 5, our mid- to late-stage pipeline of opportunities remains robust.
如幻燈片 5 所示,我們的中後期機會渠道仍然強勁。
And has increased 0.5 gigawatts despite bookings of 1.6 gigawatts since the prior earnings call.
儘管自上次財報電話會議以來的預訂量為 1.6 吉瓦,但仍增加了 0.5 吉瓦。
In terms of segment mix, this opportunity pipeline of 8.3 gigawatts includes approximately 7.7 gigawatts of potential module sales with the remaining representing potential systems business opportunities.
在細分市場組合方面,這個 8.3 吉瓦的機會管道包括大約 7.7 吉瓦的潛在模塊銷售,其餘代表潛在的系統業務機會。
In terms of geographical breakdown, North America remains the region with the largest number of opportunities at 7.1 gigawatts.
就地理分佈而言,北美仍然是機會最多的地區,為 7.1 吉瓦。
Europe represents 0.9 gigawatts, with the remainder in Asia Pacific.
歐洲代表 0.9 吉瓦,其餘在亞太地區。
As a reminder, our mid- to late-stage pipeline reflects those opportunities we believe could book within the next 12 months and is a subset of a much larger pipeline of opportunities, which total 16 gigawatts of opportunities in 2022 and beyond.
提醒一下,我們的中後期管道反映了我們認為可以在未來 12 個月內預訂的機會,並且是更大的機會管道的一個子集,在 2022 年及以後總共有 16 吉瓦的機會。
From a cost perspective, we indicated during our Q2 earnings call that our Vietnam factory, we have achieved a 40% reduction relative to our 2016 Series 4 cost per watt.
從成本的角度來看,我們在第二季度財報電話會議上表示,我們的越南工廠相對於 2016 年系列 4 的每瓦成本降低了 40%。
Building on this momentum and as a reflection of our manufacturing execution, we have also achieved this milestone at our Malaysia factory during the quarter.
在這一勢頭的基礎上,作為我們製造執行的反映,我們也在本季度在馬來西亞工廠實現了這一里程碑。
Note, as a reminder, our cost per watt metric includes sales freight and warranty.
請注意,提醒一下,我們的每瓦成本指標包括銷售運費和保修。
From a bill of materials perspective, growing solar demand and the emergence of bifacial modules, which generally are dual glass, have contributed to pressures on the supply and cost of PV glass.
從材料清單來看,不斷增長的太陽能需求和雙面組件(通常是雙玻璃)的出現,對光伏玻璃的供應和成本造成壓力。
Similar to our shipment strategy, our glass procurement strategy largely relies on forward contracts, which has substantially mitigated this impact to date.
與我們的出貨策略類似,我們的玻璃採購策略主要依賴遠期合同,迄今為止已大大減輕了這種影響。
From a fleet-wide perspective, as a result of our continued manufacturing execution, we remain on track to achieve and potentially exceed our 10% cost per watt reduction target between where we ended 2019 and expect to end 2020.
從整個車隊的角度來看,由於我們持續的製造執行,我們仍有望實現並有可能超過我們在 2019 年底和預計到 2020 年底之間降低每瓦成本 10% 的目標。
In Ohio, our third quarter core cost per watt produce continue to be higher than our international average.
在俄亥俄州,我們第三季度每瓦產品的核心成本繼續高於我們的國際平均水平。
Our U.S. manufacturing provides strategic benefits.
我們的美國製造提供戰略優勢。
And over time, we anticipate a reduction in the cost per watt through the following initiatives.
隨著時間的推移,我們預計通過以下舉措可以降低每瓦成本。
Firstly, by installing additional tools and optimizing the 2 Ohio factories into 1 consolidated platform, we expect to increase nameplate capacity slightly more than 25% to 2.4 gigawatts by the end of 2021.
首先,通過安裝額外的工具並將俄亥俄州的 2 家工廠優化為 1 個整合平台,我們預計到 2021 年底,銘牌產能將增加 25% 以上,達到 2.4 吉瓦。
With this additional capacity, we were able to amortize the fixed cost structure, including labor and depreciation over more watts produced.
有了這個額外的容量,我們能夠攤銷固定成本結構,包括勞動力和折舊超過生產的更多瓦特。
We are starting to see this benefit as reflected in our October capacity utilization.
我們開始在 10 月份的產能利用率中看到這一優勢。
Secondly, as previously disclosed, we have contracted a float glass supplier agreement with a producer in Ohio.
其次,如前所述,我們與俄亥俄州的一家生產商簽訂了浮法玻璃供應商協議。
We anticipate starting to receive the initial benefits of this agreement in Q4 and continuing into early 2021 with an expected reduction in the associated variable bill of material costs.
我們預計將在第四季度開始獲得該協議的初始收益,並持續到 2021 年初,預計相關的可變材料成本會降低。
Finally, our manufacturing yield in Ohio was approximately 2 percentage points below the fleet average.
最後,我們在俄亥俄州的製造產量比車隊平均水平低約 2 個百分點。
Through the implementation of learnings from our international factories, we see a path to achieve similar yields at our Ohio factories.
通過從我們的國際工廠學習,我們看到了在俄亥俄州工廠實現類似產量的途徑。
Through the implementation of these key initiatives, among others, we anticipate Ohio cost per watt premium over time to reduce to $0.02, including sales rate.
通過實施這些關鍵舉措,我們預計隨著時間的推移,俄亥俄州的每瓦成本溢價將降低到 0.02 美元,包括銷售率。
Turning to Slide 6. I would like to discuss the relative performance of our technology and the lab versus real-world operating conditions.
轉到幻燈片 6。我想討論我們的技術和實驗室與實際操作條件的相對性能。
PV module lab testing protocols were developed in the early days of solar, using standard testing conditions of 25 degrees centigrade at a terrestrial standard spectrum.
PV 模塊實驗室測試協議是在太陽能的早期開發的,使用 25 攝氏度的標準測試條件和地面標準光譜。
PV modules in the field, however, are exposed to variable conditions, including heat, humidity, dust and extreme weather events such as wind and hail.
然而,現場的光伏模塊暴露在各種條件下,包括高溫、濕度、灰塵和極端天氣事件,如風和冰雹。
Each of these factors caused deviation from lab performance, with the effects varying by technology.
這些因素中的每一個都會導致與實驗室性能的偏差,其影響因技術而異。
Ultimately, life cycle energy produced in the field is what drives project economics.
最終,現場產生的生命週期能源是推動項目經濟的因素。
And by analyzing the factors that caused divergence from laboratory performance, we can better understand the value proposition of our cad tel technology.
並且通過分析導致實驗室性能差異的因素,我們可以更好地了解我們的 cad tel 技術的價值主張。
Firstly, as it relates to temperature, module device operating conditions can exceed 70-degree centigrade.
首先,由於與溫度有關,模塊設備的工作條件可能會超過 70 攝氏度。
Module wattage, however, is assigned at a lab standard test condition of 25 degrees.
然而,模塊瓦數是在 25 度的實驗室標準測試條件下分配的。
And as panels heat up over the course of the day, beyond this threshold, there is a corresponding decline in power.
隨著面板在一天中升溫,超過這個閾值,功率就會相應下降。
Series 6 has a temperature coefficient advantage relative to crystalline silicon, which is anticipated to increase further with our copper replacement module, meaning cad tel responds more efficiently than crystalline silicon to real-world temperatures.
與晶體矽相比,Series 6 具有溫度係數優勢,預計隨著我們的銅替代模塊進一步提高,這意味著 cad tel 比晶體矽更有效地響應實際溫度。
Secondly, due to the unique spectrum of light Series 6 captures, our technology outperforms crystalline silicon on watt-per-watt basis in human environments.
其次,由於系列 6 捕獲的獨特光譜,我們的技術在人類環境中的每瓦瓦特基礎上優於晶體矽。
Thirdly, estimated useful life of PV power plants can exceed 30 years.
第三,光伏電站的預計使用壽命可超過30年。
And as a result, degradation is an important driver of project economics.
因此,退化是項目經濟的重要驅動力。
With the expected implementation of our copper replacement program, we anticipate a reduction in long-term degradation beyond our current warranty of 50 basis points per year.
隨著我們銅更換計劃的預期實施,我們預計長期退化會減少,超出我們目前每年 50 個基點的保修期。
We expect this innovation will enhance our competitive advantage by increasing life cycle energy and project value for our customers.
我們預計這項創新將通過為我們的客戶增加生命週期能量和項目價值來增強我們的競爭優勢。
Finally, as it relates to bifacial technology.
最後,因為它涉及雙面技術。
While there is a potential for backside energy gain, the ground reflectivity, known as albedo, varies by geography, climate and season and is often inversely correlated with hot and humid climates.
雖然有可能獲得背面能量,但地面反射率(稱為反照率)會因地理、氣候和季節而異,並且通常與炎熱和潮濕的氣候成反比。
Slide 6 depicts, the relative life cycle kilowatt hours expected to be produced by our equal lots of our copper replaced Series 6 modules, which we call Series 6 CuRe relative to leading crystalline silicon bifacial modules.
幻燈片 6 描繪了我們等量的銅替代系列 6 模塊(我們稱之為系列 6 CuRe 相對於領先的晶體矽雙面模塊)預期產生的相對生命週期千瓦時。
As a result of the aforementioned advantages, as compared to leading crystalline silicon bifacial modules, we estimate that our Series 6 CuRe module can produce up to 10% more life cycle kilowatt hours per kilowatt installed in climates with extreme heat and humidity, including Brazil, Central Africa, Southeast Asia, India and Southern United States.
由於上述優勢,與領先的晶體矽雙面組件相比,我們估計在巴西等極端高溫和潮濕的氣候條件下,我們的 6 系列 CuRe 組件每千瓦可產生高達 10% 的生命週期千瓦時,中非、東南亞、印度和美國南部。
Importantly, when implemented, our CuRe product is expected to be well-positioned in other few markets with more moderate climates, including France, Spain, Japan and the Midwestern United States.
重要的是,在實施後,我們的 CuRe 產品有望在其他幾個氣候較為溫和的市場中佔據有利地位,包括法國、西班牙、日本和美國中西部。
We expect to begin delivering Series 6 CuRe modules in the second half of 2021.
我們預計將於 2021 年下半年開始交付 6 系列 CuRe 模塊。
Turning to Slide 7. I would like to review a framework that highlights the factors that influence ASPs.
轉到幻燈片 7。我想回顧一個強調影響 ASP 的因素的框架。
Starting with bifacial.
從雙面開始。
While backside energy gain is accretive to ASP, with only a modest increase to manufacturing cost per watt, the downstream costs related to additional balance of system structures, increased vegetation management and higher cost of capital associated with albedo uncertainty are partially offset to this ASP benefit.
雖然背面能量增益增加了 ASP,每瓦製造成本僅略有增加,但與系統結構的額外平衡、增加的植被管理和與反照率不確定性相關的更高資本成本相關的下游成本部分抵消了這種 ASP 收益.
As it relates to crystalline silicon with larger form factors, the potential ASP benefit largely stems from the dilution in the manufacturer's fixed bill of material costs rather than an increase in energy density.
由於它與具有更大尺寸的晶體矽相關,潛在的平均售價收益主要來自於製造商固定材料成本的稀釋,而不是能量密度的增加。
This potential cost reduction, which may be passed through to the customer, is partially offset by the downstream cost of additional support structures, physical handling challenges with lower-sized modules, increased insurance premiums and risk associated with cell cracking and wind loads.
這種潛在的成本降低可能會轉嫁給客戶,但部分抵消了額外支撐結構的下游成本、較小尺寸模塊的物理處理挑戰、增加的保險費以及與電池破裂和風荷載相關的風險。
As it relates to our copper replacement Series 6, once implemented, we anticipated ASP accretion due to increased efficiency, improved temperature coefficient and a significant reduction in long-term degradation.
由於它與我們的銅替代系列 6 相關,一旦實施,我們預計 ASP 會因效率提高、溫度係數提高和長期退化顯著減少而增加。
Importantly, this innovation is driven by efficiency improvements, which result in dilution of our variable and fixed bill of material costs.
重要的是,這種創新是由效率提高驅動的,這導致我們可變和固定的物料清單成本的稀釋。
We expect to capture this ASP accretion as the technology does not significantly impact balance of system and development costs or project risks.
由於該技術不會顯著影響系統和開發成本或項目風險的平衡,我們預計將獲得這一 ASP 增長。
Finally, it's important to note the opportunities within our technology road map, with cell efficiency entitlement of -- in excess of 25%, coupled with the energy advantages of cad tel, we believe the outlook for our technology platform remains strong.
最後,重要的是要注意我們技術路線圖中的機會,電池效率超過 25%,再加上 cad tel 的能源優勢,我們相信我們的技術平台的前景依然強勁。
In support of our road map, over the coming quarters, we anticipate certifying a new world record for cad tel.
為了支持我們的路線圖,在接下來的幾個季度中,我們預計將認證 cad tel 的新世界紀錄。
I'll now turn the call over to Alex, who will discuss our third quarter financial results and fourth quarter guidance.
我現在將電話轉給亞歷克斯,他將討論我們第三季度的財務業績和第四季度的指導。
Alex?
亞歷克斯?
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Thanks, Mark.
謝謝,馬克。
Starting on Slide 8, I'll cover the income statement highlights for the third quarter.
從幻燈片 8 開始,我將介紹第三季度的損益表亮點。
Net sales in Q3 were $928 million, an increase of $285 million compared to the prior quarter.
第三季度的淨銷售額為 9.28 億美元,與上一季度相比增加了 2.85 億美元。
The increase was primarily driven by the sales of certain Japan and India projects as well as an increase in the volume of Series 6 modules sold to third parties.
這一增長主要是由於某些日本和印度項目的銷售以及向第三方銷售的 6 系列模塊數量的增加。
On a segment basis, as a percentage of total quarterly net sales, our module segment revenue in Q3 was 46% compared to 58% in Q2.
在細分市場的基礎上,按季度淨銷售額的百分比計算,我們第三季度的組件細分市場收入為 46%,而第二季度為 58%。
Total gross margin was 32% in Q3 compared to 21% in Q2.
第三季度總毛利率為 32%,而第二季度為 21%。
The systems segment gross margin was 33% in Q3 compared to 21% in Q2.
第三季度系統部門的毛利率為 33%,而第二季度為 21%。
This increase was primarily driven by the aforementioned international project sales and the sale of early-stage development assets, including a project entity associated with the General Motors PPA.
這一增長主要是由上述國際項目銷售和早期開發資產的銷售推動的,包括與通用汽車 PPA 相關的項目實體。
This was partially offset by $14 million of performance liquidated damages stemming from underperformance of third-party equipment at several of our legacy EPC projects.
這部分被我們的幾個傳統 EPC 項目中第三方設備性能不佳導致的 1400 萬美元的性能違約金所抵消。
Module segment gross margin was 30% in Q3 compared to 22% in Q2.
第三季度模塊部門毛利率為 30%,而第二季度為 22%。
There were several positive and negative factors that impacted this Q3 result.
有幾個積極和消極因素影響了第三季度的結果。
Firstly, we recorded a reduction in our product warranty liability reserve, which was primarily due to lower warranty settlements than previously estimated for our Series 2 technology.
首先,我們記錄了產品保修責任準備金的減少,這主要是由於我們的 2 系列技術的保修結算低於先前估計的。
This resulted in a $20 million reduction of our warranty liability and a corresponding benefit to cost of sales.
這導致我們的保修責任減少了 2000 萬美元,並相應地提高了銷售成本。
Secondly, certain of our legacy module sale agreements are covered by a collection and recycling program where a corresponding expense to the estimated future cost of our obligation was recognized at the time of sale.
其次,我們的某些遺留模塊銷售協議包含在收集和回收計劃中,在該計劃中,我們的義務的估計未來成本的相應費用在銷售時確認。
In Q3, we recognized a $19 million reduction in our module collection and recycling liability due to changes in the estimated timing of cash flows associated with capital, labor and maintenance costs.
在第三季度,由於與資本、勞動力和維護成本相關的現金流估計時間發生變化,我們確認我們的模塊收集和回收負債減少了 1900 萬美元。
This also resulted in a corresponding benefit to cost of sales.
這也為銷售成本帶來了相應的好處。
Finally, we incurred an impairment loss of $17 million for certain module manufacturing equipment, including framing and assembly tools no longer compatible with our long-term technology road map.
最後,我們為某些模塊製造設備產生了 1700 萬美元的減值損失,包括不再與我們的長期技術路線圖兼容的框架和組裝工具。
This results in a corresponding increase to cost of sales.
這導致銷售成本相應增加。
On a net basis, these factors increased module segment gross margin dollars and percent by $21 million and 5%, respectively.
在淨基礎上,這些因素使模塊部門的毛利率和百分比分別增加了 2100 萬美元和 5%。
Secondly, our module 7 gross margin was impacted by negative $6.5 million of Series 4 gross margin, which included $2 million of decommissioning and severance costs.
其次,我們的模塊 7 毛利率受到系列 4 毛利率為負 650 萬美元的影響,其中包括 200 萬美元的退役和遣散費。
Our Series 4 gross margin reduced overall module segment gross margin by 1.5%.
我們的系列 4 毛利率將整個模塊部門的毛利率降低了 1.5%。
With these facts in mind, we're pleased with our overall module segment gross margin results and our Q3 Series 6 gross margin relative to our previous expectation of 25%.
考慮到這些事實,我們對我們的整體模塊部門毛利率結果和我們的 Q3 系列 6 毛利率相對於我們之前預期的 25% 感到滿意。
This was exceeded despite lower-than-expected Q3 volumes sold and despite incurring $3.5 million of unforeseen COVID-19-driven logistics costs in the quarter.
儘管第三季度的銷量低於預期,儘管在該季度產生了 350 萬美元的因 COVID-19 導致的不可預見的物流成本,但仍超出了這一目標。
Additionally, and as a reminder, sales freight and warranty are included in cost of sales and reduced module segment gross margin by 6%.
此外,作為提醒,銷售運費和保修已包含在銷售成本中,並且模塊部門的毛利率降低了 6%。
SG&A and R&D expenses totaled $73 million in the third quarter, a decrease of approximately $1 million compared to the prior quarter.
第三季度的 SG&A 和研發費用總計 7300 萬美元,與上一季度相比減少了約 100 萬美元。
This decrease was primarily driven by lower severance and project impairment partially offset by higher legal and incentive compensation expense.
這一下降主要是由於較低的遣散費和項目減值被較高的法律和激勵補償費用部分抵消。
Production startup, which is included in operating expenses, totaled $13 million in the third quarter, an increase of $7 million compared to the prior quarter.
包含在運營費用中的生產啟動在第三季度總計 1300 萬美元,與上一季度相比增加了 700 萬美元。
And this increase is driven by higher startup expense in our second Series 6 factory in Malaysia.
這一增長是由我們在馬來西亞的第二家 Series 6 工廠的較高啟動費用推動的。
Interest income was $2 million in the third quarter compared to $4 million in Q2.
第三季度的利息收入為 200 萬美元,而第二季度為 400 萬美元。
This decrease was primarily driven by lower interest rate and investment balance for our marketable securities.
這一下降主要是由於我們的有價證券的利率和投資餘額較低。
We recorded tax expense of $38 million in the third quarter compared to $10 million in Q2.
我們在第三季度記錄了 3800 萬美元的稅收支出,而第二季度為 1000 萬美元。
This increase in tax expense is largely attributable to higher pretax earnings in Q3.
稅收費用的增加主要是由於第三季度稅前收益增加。
The combination of aforementioned items led to third quarter earnings per share of $1.45 compared to $0.35 in the second quarter.
上述項目的組合導致第三季度每股收益為 1.45 美元,而第二季度為 0.35 美元。
I'll next turn to Slide 9 to discuss select balance sheet items and summary cash flow information.
接下來我將轉到幻燈片 9,討論選擇的資產負債表項目和匯總現金流信息。
Our cash, marketable securities and restricted cash balance ended the quarter at $1.7 billion, an increase of approximately $29 million compared to the prior quarter.
本季度末,我們的現金、有價證券和受限現金餘額為 17 億美元,與上一季度相比增加了約 2900 萬美元。
Total debt at the end of the third quarter was $261 million, a decrease from $465 million at the end of Q2 as a result of international project sales.
由於國際項目銷售,第三季度末的總債務為 2.61 億美元,低於第二季度末的 4.65 億美元。
As a reminder, all of our outstanding debt continues to be project-related and will come off our balance sheet when the corresponding project is sold.
提醒一下,我們所有的未償債務仍然與項目相關,並且會在相應項目出售時從我們的資產負債表中扣除。
Our net cash position, which includes cash, restricted cash and marketable securities less debt increased by approximately $233 million to $1.4 billion.
我們的淨現金頭寸(包括現金、受限現金和有價證券減去債務)增加了約 2.33 億美元,達到 14 億美元。
This increase was driven by proceeds from system sales and module segment operating cash flows, which were partially offset by capital expenditures and loan repayments associated with the Ishikawa project there.
這一增長是由系統銷售和模塊部門經營現金流的收益推動的,這些收益被與那裡的石川項目相關的資本支出和貸款償還部分抵消。
Net working capital in Q3, which includes noncurrent project assets and excludes cash and marketable securities, decreased by $18 million compared to the prior quarter.
第三季度的淨營運資本(包括非流動項目資產,不包括現金和有價證券)與上一季度相比減少了 1800 萬美元。
Net cash provided by operating activities was $208 million in the third quarter compared to $148 million in the prior quarter.
第三季度經營活動提供的淨現金為 2.08 億美元,而上一季度為 1.48 億美元。
As it relates to our Ishikawa project, we repaid the project debt prior to close, which resulted in higher operating cash flows upon transaction close.
由於它與我們的石川項目有關,我們在交易完成前償還了項目債務,這導致交易完成後的經營現金流量增加。
As it relates to our Miyagi and Anamizu project, the associated project that was assumed by the buyer, which reduced cash outflows from financing activities and operating cash inflows at transaction flows.
由於它與我們的宮城和穴水項目有關,該項目由買方承擔,減少了融資活動的現金流出和交易流中的經營現金流入。
Finally, capital expenditures were $106 million in the third quarter, which brings our year-to-date total to $327 million as we continue our Series 6 capacity expansion.
最後,第三季度的資本支出為 1.06 億美元,這使我們今年迄今的總支出達到 3.27 億美元,因為我們繼續進行 6 系列產能擴張。
Turning to Slide 10.
轉到幻燈片 10。
I'll next provide an updated perspective on 2020 guidance.
接下來,我將提供有關 2020 年指南的最新觀點。
On our Q2 call, we provided guidance metrics that we believe were largely within our control or within reasonable line of sight at the time.
在我們的第二季度電話會議上,我們提供了我們認為在很大程度上在我們控制範圍內或當時合理視線範圍內的指導指標。
This included production, operating expense and capital expenditure guidance for the full year 2020.
這包括 2020 年全年的生產、運營費用和資本支出指導。
While significant uncertainties remain regarding the severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on our operations and financial results.
儘管 COVID-19 大流行的嚴重性和持續時間及其對我們的運營和財務業績的影響仍存在重大不確定性。
We believe visibility into our financial performance of the fourth quarter has improved on account of the following.
我們認為,由於以下原因,我們對第四季度財務業績的可見性有所改善。
Firstly, at the time of our Q2 earnings call, we cited tax equity market uncertainty for projects set to achieve commercial operation in 2021, which had the potential to impact our module customers and our self-developed Sun Streams 2 project.
首先,在我們的第二季度財報電話會議上,我們提到了將於 2021 年實現商業運營的項目的稅收股權市場不確定性,這有可能影響我們的組件客戶和我們自主開發的 Sun Streams 2 項目。
Although provisions for credit losses stabilized somewhat in Q3, significant uncertainty remains for Q4 and 2021.
儘管信用損失準備金在第三季度有所穩定,但第四季度和 2021 年仍存在重大不確定性。
Forecasting tax capacity for the second half of 2021 remains difficult due to the uncertain economic outlook, government response and trajectory of COVID-19.
由於不確定的經濟前景、政府反應和 COVID-19 的發展軌跡,預測 2021 年下半年的稅收能力仍然很困難。
However, some tax equity providers have begun committing to 2021 financings, albeit at conservative volume.
然而,一些稅收股權提供者已經開始承諾 2021 年的融資,儘管數量保守。
Whilst this is incrementally positive for the U.S. solar market, we remain strongly supportive of a direct pay legislative solution in lieu of the investment tax credit to alleviate potential disruptions in the tax equity market.
雖然這對美國太陽能市場來說是積極的,但我們仍然強烈支持直接支付立法解決方案來代替投資稅收抵免,以減輕稅收股權市場的潛在破壞。
Secondly, with the sale of our American Kings project in Q2, the previously mentioned sales of the Japan and India assets in Q3, and with the expected sale of the Sun Streams 2 project in Q4 2020 or Q1 of 2021 and we have a viable path to close each project sale contemplated in our original 2020 guidance from February.
其次,隨著我們在第二季度出售美國國王項目,在第三季度出售之前提到的日本和印度資產,以及預計在 2020 年第四季度或 2021 年第一季度出售 Sun Streams 2 項目,我們有一條可行的道路從 2 月開始,完成我們最初的 2020 年指導中設想的每個項目銷售。
Finally, at the time of the February guidance call, we anticipated full year module shipments of 5.8 to 6 gigawatts.
最後,在 2 月份的指導電話會議上,我們預計全年組件出貨量為 5.8 至 6 吉瓦。
Shipments through the end of the third quarter totaled 3.7 gigawatts, which is below our year-to-date expectations, largely due to COVID-19-driven projects, financing, logistics and customer delays.
截至第三季度末的出貨量總計 3.7 吉瓦,低於我們年初至今的預期,主要是由於 COVID-19 驅動的項目、融資、物流和客戶延誤。
This has resulted in a shipments profile incrementally weighted to the second half of the year.
這導致出貨情況逐漸加權到今年下半年。
However, a significant volume of modules that we anticipate recognizing a 2020 revenue are currently in transit or will be shipped in the coming weeks.
但是,我們預計將在 2020 年實現收入的大量模塊目前正在運輸中或將在未來幾週內發貨。
With the improved visibility for system sales for 2020 and year-to-date progress for module shipments, we are reinstating financial guidance for the fourth quarter that considers this range of outcomes for module revenue recognition timing and closing of the Sun Streams 2 sale.
隨著 2020 年系統銷售可見性的提高和模塊出貨量的年初至今進展,我們正在恢復第四季度的財務指導,該指導考慮了模塊收入確認時間和 Sun Streams 2 銷售結束的這一系列結果。
Given the uncertainty around any outcome from the evaluation of strategic options for our U.S. project development business and the sale timing of our North American O&M business, our fourth quarter guidance assumes no change to our existing lines of business.
鑑於對我們美國項目開發業務的戰略選擇評估以及我們北美 O&M 業務的銷售時機的任何結果的不確定性,我們的第四季度指導假設我們現有的業務線沒有變化。
And to date, while we've largely managed the impact of COVID-19 on our business and has not had significant impact on our operations, our guidance assumes that we'll continue to be able to mitigate any such impact on our supply chain and operations without the incurrence of the material cost.
迄今為止,雖然我們在很大程度上控制了 COVID-19 對我們業務的影響,並且沒有對我們的運營產生重大影響,但我們的指導假設我們將繼續能夠減輕對我們的供應鍊和在不產生材料成本的情況下進行操作。
I'll now review our fourth quarter guidance ranges with the implied full year 2020 guidance range included on Slide 11.
我現在將回顧我們第四季度的指導範圍,其中包含幻燈片 11 中隱含的 2020 年全年指導範圍。
Starting with shipments.
從出貨開始。
Due to the aforementioned uncertainties, we anticipate volumes of 1.8 to 2 gigawatts in Q4, which implies 5.5 to 5.7 gigawatts for the full year.
由於上述不確定性,我們預計第四季度的容量為 1.8 至 2 吉瓦,這意味著全年為 5.5 至 5.7 吉瓦。
Production in Q4 is expected to be 1.5 gigawatts with implied full year 2020 production of 6 gigawatts, including 0.2 gigawatts of Series 4.
第四季度的產量預計為 1.5 吉瓦,隱含的 2020 年全年產量為 6 吉瓦,包括 0.2 吉瓦的系列 4。
Note that our full year production guidance of 6 gigawatts has increased by 0.1 gigawatts relative to the guidance provided during our Q2 earnings call.
請注意,相對於我們在第二季度財報電話會議期間提供的指導,我們 6 吉瓦的全年生產指導增加了 0.1 吉瓦。
Net sales are expected to be between $540 million and $790 million in Q4, which accounts for potential delays in the close of our Sun Streams 2 project sale and module revenue recognition timing.
預計第四季度的淨銷售額將在 5.4 億美元至 7.9 億美元之間,這說明了我們的 Sun Streams 2 項目銷售結束和模塊收入確認時間可能延遲。
Total gross margin is projected to be 26.5% to 27% in Q4.
第四季度總毛利率預計為 26.5% 至 27%。
And note that we anticipate the closing of the Sun Streams 2 project, there will be slightly dilutive to overall gross margin percentage.
並請注意,我們預計 Sun Streams 2 項目的關閉,將略微稀釋整體毛利率百分比。
Module segment gross margin is projected to be between 27% and 28% in Q4.
預計第四季度模塊部門毛利率將在 27% 至 28% 之間。
We anticipate our module segment gross margin will be supported by an increase in volumes sold and continued reductions in our cost per watt, partially offset by a modest decline in ASP.
我們預計我們的組件部門毛利率將受到銷量增加和每瓦成本持續降低的支持,但部分被平均售價的小幅下降所抵消。
And included in this gross margin guidance is an anticipated 40 basis point gross margin percentage drag due to Series 4.
該毛利率指引中包括由於系列 4 導致的預期 40 個基點的毛利率百分比拖累。
Operating expenses are expected to be between $90 million and $95 million in Q4.
第四季度的運營費用預計在 9000 萬美元至 9500 萬美元之間。
This includes production startup expenses related to our second Series 6 factory in Malaysia of $15 million.
這包括與我們在馬來西亞的第二家 Series 6 工廠相關的 1500 萬美元的生產啟動費用。
We anticipate R&D and SG&A costs, excluding startup expenses of $75 million to $80 million in Q4.
我們預計研發和 SG&A 成本,不包括第四季度 7500 萬至 8000 萬美元的啟動費用。
Our current implied full year 2020 operating expense guidance of $351 million to $356 million is within the guidance range provided during our second quarter 2020 earnings call.
我們目前隱含的 2020 年全年運營費用指導為 3.51 億美元至 3.56 億美元,處於我們在 2020 年第二季度財報電話會議期間提供的指導範圍內。
Operating income is estimated to be between $50 million and $120 million in Q4.
第四季度的營業收入估計在 5000 萬美元至 1.2 億美元之間。
Turning to nonoperating items.
轉向非經營性項目。
We expect interest income, interest expense and other income to net to negative $5 million.
我們預計利息收入、利息支出和其他收入將淨額為負 500 萬美元。
Anticipate a tax benefit of $45 million to $60 million in Q4, which includes a discrete tax benefit of $60 million associated with the closing of the statute of limitations on uncertain tax position.
預計第四季度的稅收優惠為 4500 萬美元至 6000 萬美元,其中包括與關閉不確定稅收狀況的限制法規相關的 6000 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。
This results in a Q4 earnings per share guidance range of $1.00 to $1.50 per share and $3.65 to $4.15 per share implied for the full year 2020.
這導致 2020 年全年的第四季度每股收益指導範圍為每股 1.00 美元至 1.50 美元和每股 3.65 美元至 4.15 美元。
Our 2020 capital expenditure forecast of $450 million to $550 million remains unchanged from the prior quarter.
我們對 2020 年 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元的資本支出預測與上一季度保持不變。
Our year-end 2020 net cash balance is anticipated to be between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion.
我們 2020 年底的淨現金餘額預計在 12 億美元至 13 億美元之間。
The decrease relative to our Q3 net cash position is primarily due to capital expenditures and projects spend related to our Sun Streams 2 project.
相對於我們第三季度淨現金頭寸的減少主要是由於與我們的 Sun Streams 2 項目相關的資本支出和項目支出。
Turning to Slide 12, I'll summarize the key messages from today's call.
轉到幻燈片 12,我將總結今天電話會議的關鍵信息。
Firstly, we had Q3 earnings per share of $1.45, increased our quarter end net cash position, improved module segment gross margin quarter-over-quarter and reinstated financial guidance for the fourth quarter.
首先,我們的第三季度每股收益為 1.45 美元,增加了我們的季度末淨現金頭寸,提高了模塊部門的毛利率,並恢復了第四季度的財務指導。
Secondly, we had strong manufacturing performance with each factory averaging over 100% capacity utilization in Q3.
其次,我們的製造業績強勁,每家工廠在第三季度的平均產能利用率均超過 100%。
And that our Malaysia factory achieved our midterm cost per watt target of a 40% reduction from our 2016 Series 4 cost.
我們的馬來西亞工廠實現了我們的中期每瓦成本目標,即從 2016 年系列 4 成本降低 40%。
Thirdly, demand for our Series 6 product is robust, and we had continued success adding to our contracted pipeline.
第三,對我們 6 系列產品的需求強勁,我們在合同管道中不斷取得成功。
With net bookings of 1.6 gigawatts since the prior earnings call and 4.1 gigawatts year-to-date.
自上次財報電話會議以來的淨預訂量為 1.6 吉瓦,年初至今為 4.1 吉瓦。
Our contracted backlog remains a pillar of strength with 6.7 gigawatts contracted for expected deliveries in 2021 and 3.6 gigawatts contracted for expected deliveries across 2022 and 2023.
我們的合同積壓仍然是實力支柱,2021 年預計交付量為 6.7 吉瓦,2022 年和 2023 年預計交付量為 3.6 吉瓦。
And finally, despite ongoing challenges relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, we remain pleased with all operational and financial performance.
最後,儘管與 COVID-19 大流行相關的挑戰持續存在,但我們仍然對所有運營和財務業績感到滿意。
And with that, we conclude our prepared remarks and open the call for questions.
至此,我們結束準備好的發言並開始提問。
Operator?
操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Philip Shen Lee with ROTH Capital Partners.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen Lee。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I have a few here.
我這裡有幾個。
So thank you for your patience.
所以謝謝你的耐心。
The first one is on CIGS.
第一個是在 CIGS 上。
I think we picked up recently that you guys restarted your CIGS research efforts.
我想我們最近發現你們重新開始了 CIGS 研究工作。
So I wanted to get a sense for what that might mean relative to cad tel.
所以我想了解這相對於 cad tel 可能意味著什麼。
Second, I think you guys have talked about getting to 8 gigawatts of capacity by year-end '21.
其次,我認為你們已經談到到 21 年底達到 8 吉瓦的容量。
Can you talk about the conditions that need to exist to consider expanding capacity?
能否談談考慮擴容需要具備的條件?
And then what the timing and the locations of that might look like?
那麼它的時間和地點可能是什麼樣的?
And then number three here, with the ever-growing importance of security of supply, especially in the face of the Xinjiang risk and the concentration of capacity in China.
然後是第三位,供應安全的重要性與日俱增,尤其是在新疆風險和中國產能集中的情況下。
Can you talk about how the tenor of conversations with customers may have changed over the past month and then help us understand how much is booked in '21, '22 and '23?
您能否談談在過去一個月中與客戶的談話內容可能發生了怎樣的變化,然後幫助我們了解 21 年、22 年和 23 年的預訂量?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
All right.
好的。
I'll let Alex take the last one, booked '22 and '23.
我會讓亞歷克斯拿下最後一個,訂的 22 年和 23 年。
So I'll try to take the other 3 as he gathers those numbers up.
因此,當他收集這些數字時,我將嘗試採用其他 3 個。
So your question around CIGS and we're -- to the extent that we are looking at that as a technology or really any technology because at the end of the day, the core were module technology manufacturing companies.
所以你關於 CIGS 的問題和我們 - 在某種程度上,我們將其視為一種技術或任何技術,因為歸根結底,核心是模塊技術製造公司。
That's what we do.
這就是我們所做的。
And we need to continue to find ways to differentiate ourselves on a technology basis and to find ways to be as disruptive as we can with our technology and always accrete advantages relative to crystalline silicon and whatever the ultimate competition may be.
我們需要繼續尋找在技術基礎上實現差異化的方法,並找到方法盡可能地利用我們的技術進行顛覆,並始終獲得相對於晶體矽和任何最終競爭的優勢。
We've looked at CIGS in the past.
我們過去曾研究過 CIGS。
We've looked at crystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon.
我們已經研究了晶體矽和單晶矽。
We're looking for perovskites.
我們正在尋找鈣鈦礦。
We look at everything.
我們看著一切。
And as it relates to, if your question is CIGS somewhat an indication that we don't have confidence in cad tel?
與此相關的是,如果您的問題是 CIGS 在某種程度上表明我們對 cad tel 沒有信心?
That's not anywhere close to the reality.
這一點都不接近現實。
Cad tel, in my mind, will always be advantaged relative to CIGS.
在我看來,Cad tel 相對於 CIGS 將始終具有優勢。
And we believe it has a road map to be advantaged relative to crystalline silicon.
我們相信它有一個相對於晶體矽具有優勢的路線圖。
But the reason that we would look at crystalline silicon or CIGS or perovskites or organic PV or anything else that may be out there is how do you complement the 2.
但我們之所以會關注晶體矽、CIGS、鈣鈦礦、有機光伏或其他任何可能存在的東西,是因為你如何補充 2。
And we've mentioned this before that we believe, over time, that multi-junction type of technology will evolve into the marketplace.
我們之前已經提到過這一點,我們相信,隨著時間的推移,多結類型的技術將進入市場。
And cad tel, in and of itself, it's a very good top cell from a standpoint of having a high-band gap.
而 cad tel,就其本身而言,從具有高帶隙的角度來看,它是一個非常好的頂部單元。
So it captures a significant portion of the overall sun spectrum.
因此,它捕獲了整個太陽光譜的很大一部分。
And what you need then as a second cell underneath that would be what's complementary to that.
然後你需要作為下面的第二個單元格來補充它。
And could it be CIGS, could it be crystalline silicon, could it be perovskites in some form or fashion.
它會不會是 CIGS,會不會是晶體矽,會不會是某種形式或方式的鈣鈦礦。
And so we're always going to look at that.
所以我們總是會關注這一點。
We believe it's the evolution of technology that will happen in the future.
我們相信未來會發生技術的發展。
We've highlighted in previous calls, too, that we are reinvigorating our advanced technology team.
我們在之前的電話會議中也強調過,我們正在重振我們的先進技術團隊。
And so to the extent that we need to look at different materials, different semiconductors that could be complementary to cad tel, we'll continue to do that.
因此,如果我們需要研究可以與 cad tel 互補的不同材料、不同半導體,我們將繼續這樣做。
But I don't look at CIGS or really any of those other technologies as replacing cad tel.
但我不認為 CIGS 或其他任何技術可以取代 cad tel。
The core will be of our semiconductor and overall device will be cad tel, the question is, there's something else that becomes complementary with it, and we need to look at all options that could be out there.
核心將是我們的半導體,整個設備將是 cad tel,問題是,還有其他東西可以與之互補,我們需要考慮所有可能存在的選項。
As it relates to the expansion in the 8 gigawatts.
因為它涉及到 8 吉瓦的擴展。
I mean we have, I think, indicated our nameplate would be about 8 gigawatts at the end of '21.
我的意思是,我認為,我們已經表明我們的銘牌在 21 年底將達到 8 吉瓦。
We are in the last phase of our Series 6 transition with our second factory in Malaysia that will start-up, the current plans would start-up in Q1 of '21.
我們正處於 6 系列過渡的最後階段,我們在馬來西亞的第二家工廠將啟動,目前的計劃將在 21 年第一季度啟動。
We are looking beyond that.
我們正在超越這一點。
And as we've always said, we've got a balanced business model between growth, liquidity and profitability.
正如我們一直說的那樣,我們在增長、流動性和盈利能力之間建立了平衡的商業模式。
And we obviously understand the value of growth and the leverage against fixed costs and flow through of contribution margin.
我們顯然了解增長的價值以及對固定成本的槓桿作用以及邊際貢獻的流動。
And so we are evaluating options.
所以我們正在評估選項。
And we will look at where we can create the next disruptive, lowest cost factory.
我們將研究在哪裡可以創建下一個顛覆性的、成本最低的工廠。
So as we continue down our journey with Series 6, one of the things that we passed ourselves with, probably about 9 months or a year ago is what's the factory of the future look like?
所以當我們繼續我們的系列 6 之旅時,我們通過自己的一件事,可能是大約 9 個月或一年前,未來的工廠是什麼樣的?
What's the next-generation technology in terms of driving lowest cost for our cad tel platform?
在為我們的 cad tel 平台推動最低成本方面,下一代技術是什麼?
And so we have been doing that and trying to find a way to create that disruptive, lowest cost in the fleet factory, which under that construct, most likely would not be in the U.S. for the reasons that we've mentioned.
因此,我們一直在這樣做,並試圖找到一種方法來在車隊工廠中創造出具有顛覆性的最低成本,在這種結構下,由於我們提到的原因,很可能不會在美國。
And we believe we have relative representation here with, call it, almost 2.5 gigawatts in the U.S. But other markets we would look to, India could be one.
我們相信我們在這裡有相對的代表性,在美國有近 2.5 吉瓦的電力,但我們希望看到的其他市場,印度可能是其中之一。
We've talked before about potentially our European factory in Germany starting that up as an easy way to get to market quickly and leverage that factory that we closed down almost a decade ago.
我們之前已經討論過我們在德國的歐洲工廠可能會啟動它,這是一種快速進入市場並利用我們近十年前關閉的工廠的簡單方法。
So those are things that we're looking at.
所以這些是我們正在關注的事情。
And we also believe that as we've indicated, I think Alex mentioned in his prepared remarks, that freight is basically 6% of gross margin right now, 6% of the ASP effectively.
而且我們也相信,正如我們所指出的,我認為亞歷克斯在他準備好的評論中提到,運費現在基本上是毛利率的 6%,有效的 ASP 的 6%。
And so getting closer to market and driving down your freight cost is an advantage that we would continue to look to.
因此,更接近市場並降低您的運費是我們將繼續關注的優勢。
So being in a market that can consume 2.5 to 5 gigawatts of volume, on a recurring basis, it would be important.
因此,在一個經常消耗 2.5 到 5 吉瓦容量的市場中,這一點很重要。
So those are the many different factors that we look to as we think about expansion.
因此,這些是我們在考慮擴張時會考慮的許多不同因素。
But I just want to make sure it is clear that, that is on the agenda of things that we're looking at this point in time.
但我只是想確保清楚,這是我們目前正在考慮的事情的議程。
Supply security and any impact with what's happened with China and the latest evolution now being on the potential use of force labor and implications that, that has and potentially product being banned in the U.S. It's one of many different dimensions that a lot of our customers have as it relates to relying on China in long term and the uncertainty around that.
供應安全以及對中國發生的事情的任何影響,以及現在最新的演變是對潛在使用武力的影響以及在美國已經和可能被禁止的產品這是我們的許多客戶所擁有的許多不同方面之一因為這涉及到長期依賴中國以及圍繞這一點的不確定性。
I don't know if it has increased meaningfully over the last -- the last month.
我不知道它是否在過去 - 上個月有意義地增加了。
It's just one of many different concerns that they've had.
這只是他們有過的許多不同的擔憂之一。
I mean even with the discussion around bulk power systems and potential implications around that.
我的意思是,即使是圍繞大容量電力系統及其潛在影響的討論。
The modules have been looked at.
模塊已經看過了。
Is there a risk of that, that can be impacted?
有沒有這樣的風險,會受到影響?
There's a discussion of extension of the 201 tariffs, there's many different things that come into the mix.
有關於延長 201 關稅的討論,其中有許多不同的東西。
And a lot of our customers here in the U.S., in particular, want to do business with an American company.
尤其是我們在美國的許多客戶都希望與一家美國公司開展業務。
They want to derisk their supply as it relates to the ability to deliver against commitments and any uncertainties that could be imposed upon the Chinese supplier and some of the issues that are coming up, as you mentioned, with force labor.
他們希望降低供應風險,因為這關係到履行承諾的能力,以及可能強加給中國供應商的任何不確定性,以及您提到的一些即將出現的問題,即強制勞動。
So I don't know if it's changed significantly in the last month.
所以我不知道它在上個月是否發生了顯著變化。
It clearly is top of mind, and it's just one of many different factors that all of our customers think about when they have to rely upon their Chinese -- our Chinese counterparty as a supplier.
這顯然是最重要的,這只是我們所有客戶在必須依賴他們的中國人——我們的中國對手方作為供應商時考慮的眾多不同因素之一。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes, just to throw the numbers in the end of there.
是的,只是把數字扔到最後。
So right now, we have 6.7 gigawatts booked for 2021 and 3.6 gigawatts booked across '22 and beyond.
所以現在,我們在 2021 年預訂了 6.7 吉瓦,在 22 年及以後預訂了 3.6 吉瓦。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Congrats on a good quarter.
祝賀一個好季度。
A couple of things from my end.
我的幾件事。
I guess, first, I know there's a lot of moving parts here on the module gross margin this quarter.
我想,首先,我知道本季度模塊毛利率有很多變動因素。
I'm getting to, like, a 26.5% clean number for Series 6, which is 150 basis points higher quarter-on-quarter.
我正在為系列 6 獲得 26.5% 的干淨數字,比上一季度高出 150 個基點。
I guess first question is, is that the right math?
我想第一個問題是,這是正確的數學嗎?
And sort of what happened during the quarter that got you the additional 150 basis points because I think last quarter, you were talking about sort of a flattish sequential trajectory?
本季度發生的事情讓你獲得了額外的 150 個基點,因為我認為上個季度,你在談論某種平坦的連續軌跡?
And then the second question would be around -- I didn't hear it on the call, I might have missed it, but are you still on track to hit that 300 basis point gross margin expansion for Series 6 in Q4 off of this higher run rate, if my math is right?
然後是第二個問題——我在電話會議上沒有聽到,我可能錯過了,但你是否仍有望在第四季度達到 300 個基點的系列 6 毛利率擴張運行速度,如果我的數學是正確的?
And then maybe just lastly, how should we think about cost reductions in 2021?
然後也許就在最後,我們應該如何考慮 2021 年的成本削減?
You said you're running at or above the 10% target for this year, what sort of gross margin expansion potential do you have as you move into 2021 given the cost reduction progress you're making and also the fact that pricing seems to be fairly stable for you guys?
您說您今年的目標是達到或超過 10%,考慮到您正在取得的成本削減進展以及定價似乎是對你們來說還算穩定嗎?
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes, I'll start on the gross margin.
是的,我將從毛利率開始。
And if Mark wants to comment on the cost reduction and beyond that.
如果馬克想對成本降低發表評論,除此之外。
So you're doing basically the right math with the reported module segment gross margin is at 29.5%, and you've got 3 big things that moved in there, with a reduction in our warranty and liability about $20 million, but the good guy.
因此,您所做的基本上是正確的數學運算,報告的模塊部門毛利率為 29.5%,並且您有 3 件大事移到那裡,我們的保修和責任減少了約 2000 萬美元,但是好人.
Reduction in the end of life recycling of about $19 million also a good guy.
在報廢回收中減少約 1900 萬美元也是一個好人。
Then you had an impairment charge of about $17 million that goes against.
然後你有大約 1700 萬美元的減值費用。
So when you net all of those, you've got about $21 million or about 5 percentage points.
因此,當您將所有這些淨值計算在內時,您將獲得大約 2100 萬美元或大約 5 個百分點。
You take that down to about 24.5%, and then we said that within the overall margin, we had about a $6.5 million or 1.5% negative associated with Series 4. So you add that back in, you get to about 26%.
你把它降低到大約 24.5%,然後我們說在整體利潤率中,我們有大約 650 萬美元或 1.5% 的負數與第 4 輪相關。所以你把它加回去,你會得到大約 26%。
And then on top of that, we did have some COVID charges in that number.
最重要的是,我們確實在該數字中收取了一些 COVID 費用。
So there's about $3.5 million of COVID charges.
因此,大約有 350 萬美元的 COVID 費用。
If you back that out, again, you're going to be another 50 to 100 basis points.
如果你再次支持這一點,你將再增加 50 到 100 個基點。
So somewhere around 26.5% to 27% is around the Series 6 clean number.
所以大約 26.5% 到 27% 大約是系列 6 的干淨數字。
So yes, we're a little ahead of where we expected to be.
所以是的,我們比我們預期的要領先一點。
And part of that is just a function of how well the factories have been running, as I think Mark mentioned in his prepared remarks, we've now managed to get to the cost reduction target that we expected in our high-volume manufacturing by the end of the year.
其中一部分只是工廠運行狀況的一個函數,正如我認為馬克在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們現在已經設法實現了我們在大批量製造中所期望的成本降低目標年底。
In Q3, we're already there in our Malaysia site.
在第三季度,我們已經在我們的馬來西亞網站上。
We already achieved that last quarter in Vietnam.
我們已經在越南上個季度實現了這一目標。
So running a little ahead there.
所以跑到前面一點。
In terms of where we think we'll be by Q4, we're going to be at that 27.5% to 28% gross margin on Series 6 is the number we're guiding too for Q4.
就我們認為到第四季度的情況而言,我們將在第 6 季達到 27.5% 到 28% 的毛利率,這也是我們為第四季度指導的數字。
So that's one held roughly steady from where we were last quarter.
因此,這與我們上個季度的情況大致保持穩定。
And then in terms of cost reduction beyond that, we're not giving guidance out through 2021.
然後在降低成本方面,我們不會在 2021 年之前給出指導。
Mark, I don't know if you want to comment anything on it.
馬克,我不知道你是否想對此發表評論。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes.
是的。
By the way, I guess, I would say just on that is -- and it's similar to, I think, what I said in my comments about the things that are -- continue to drive improvements to the cost per watt through throughput, improve watts and improve yields.
順便說一句,我想,我想說的是 - 我認為這類似於我在評論中所說的 - 通過吞吐量繼續推動每瓦成本的改進,提高瓦並提高產量。
And so what I said in my remarks is that we just opened up the 445-watt bin.
所以我在講話中說的是我們剛剛打開了 445 瓦的垃圾箱。
And then over the next few quarters, we're going to be at the 455 and north of that shortly thereafter.
然後在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將在 455 和此後不久的北部。
And so that improvement in watts is going to help drive down costs.
因此,瓦數的提高將有助於降低成本。
So that helps.
所以這有幫助。
The throughput, as we've already highlighted, is going to continue to increase.
正如我們已經強調的那樣,吞吐量將繼續增加。
So that's another significant lever that is going to help drive down the cost per watt.
因此,這是另一個有助於降低每瓦成本的重要槓桿。
The other one, as we highlighted, is the glass supply for our Perrysburg factory, which will start to take shape in Q4, and we'll see realize the full benefit starting in Q1.
正如我們強調的那樣,另一個是我們佩里斯堡工廠的玻璃供應,它將在第四季度開始形成,我們將看到從第一季度開始實現全部收益。
So the bill of material cost in Perrysburg particularly is going to be helpful.
因此,佩里斯堡的材料成本清單尤其會有所幫助。
But we're also working on significant -- taking significant cost out of the frame, which will help drive costs further.
但我們也在做重要的工作——從框架中降低大量成本,這將有助於進一步降低成本。
And then we're actually looking at the change in the profile of the module such that it's actually center.
然後我們實際上正在查看模塊配置文件的變化,使其實際上處於中心位置。
So when you look at the glass plus the frame, we're trying to make the profile of the module center, which will also then allow us to add about 10% more modules, a little over 10% more modules per container from a freight standpoint, which will help drive down that cost.
因此,當您查看玻璃和框架時,我們正在嘗試製作模塊中心的輪廓,這也將允許我們添加大約 10% 的模塊,每個集裝箱的模塊增加 10% 多一點立場,這將有助於降低成本。
So we've got teams that are really multidimensional and looking across all aspects of everything that is associated with the cost of the product and ultimately delivering it to the end customer.
因此,我們擁有真正多維的團隊,並查看與產品成本相關的所有方面,並最終將其交付給最終客戶。
So as Alex said, we're not guiding at this point in time for '21.
所以正如亞歷克斯所說,我們目前沒有為 21 年提供指導。
But we are tracking to be ahead of what we thought -- where we thought we were going to be on a cost per watt basis as we exit the year, which is a good place to be.
但是我們正在跟踪我們的想法 - 我們認為我們將在今年結束時以每瓦特成本為基礎,這是一個很好的地方。
And then we still have a number of other initiatives that will further drive down our cost per watt as we go into 2021.
然後,我們還有許多其他舉措將在我們進入 2021 年時進一步降低我們的每瓦成本。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ben Kallo with Baird.
我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。
Benjamin Joseph Kallo - Senior Research Analyst
Benjamin Joseph Kallo - Senior Research Analyst
Great quarter, guys.
偉大的季度,伙計們。
So 3 or 4 questions here.
所以這裡有 3 或 4 個問題。
So can you talk about your utilization here above nameplate?
那麼您能在銘牌上方談談您的使用情況嗎?
And how should we expect that going forward?
我們應該如何期待未來的發展?
I know, Mark, you just talked about your watts and your yield and -- but how much can we go above nameplate capacity?
我知道,馬克,你剛剛談到了你的瓦特和你的產量 - 但是我們可以超出銘牌容量多少?
And when we think about your target for next year, how much is that considered in that?
當我們考慮您明年的目標時,其中考慮了多少?
And then you don't talk about efficiency anymore, but can you talk to us about the theoretical efficiency of cad tel and where we can go from a 445 watts and above?
然後你不再談論效率,但你能和我們談談 cad tel 的理論效率,以及我們可以從 445 瓦及更高的功率到哪裡?
And then the last question, I guess, is the 2.5 gigawatts before you place new capacity somewhere if it's in orders, I guess, $400 million of CapEx.
然後最後一個問題,我猜,是 2.5 吉瓦,如果它在訂單中,我猜是 4 億美元的資本支出。
Does it take you selling the systems business before you make that go, no-go decision?
您是否需要在做出決定之前出售系統業務?
And could you talk about just the incentive to onshore new capacity?
你能談談對陸上新產能的激勵嗎?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes.
是的。
So from -- Ben, where we also, what I said in the script was that where we are on trajectory right now for our 2 facility -- plants in Ohio was to drive the nameplate capacity up to 25% above than what we originally launched that.
因此,從本,我們也在腳本中說,我們現在正在為我們的 2 個工廠發展軌道,俄亥俄州的工廠將把銘牌產能比我們最初推出的產能提高 25%那。
The objective would be to drive it effectively to about low 30s.
目標是有效地將其驅動到大約 30 年代的低點。
So there's -- let's say there's another 5 to about 8 percentage points of incremental utilization that we would like to get out of all the factories.
所以 - 假設我們希望從所有工廠中獲得另外 5 到 8 個百分點的增量利用率。
So first, we had to get everything up to 25%, right?
所以首先,我們必須把所有東西都提高到 25%,對吧?
We're not necessarily there yet.
我們不一定在那裡。
You can see by when we're running.
你可以在我們跑步的時候看到。
We're, call it, 120, so I think it was the best that we highlighted right now.
我們叫它 120,所以我認為這是我們現在強調的最好的。
We've got a path to get everything up to around 25% near term.
我們有一條途徑可以在短期內將所有內容提高到 25% 左右。
With a goal of getting it up to low 30s, call it, around 30% to 33%, which would be another 5 to 8 percentage points above what our near-term objective is.
目標是讓它達到 30 多歲,稱之為 30% 到 33% 左右,這將比我們的近期目標高 5 到 8 個百分點。
And a little bit of work still to be done there, but been very impressed with the team's capabilities of making that happen.
還有一些工作要做,但對團隊實現這一目標的能力印象深刻。
On the efficiency side, as you have indicated, where are we going with the technology.
正如您所指出的,在效率方面,我們將在哪裡使用該技術。
What I did say in some -- one of my very last comments was the entitlement at the cell level for cad tel is 25% plus.
我在某些方面確實說過——我最後的評論之一是 cad tel 在單元級別的權利是 25% 以上。
And that would translate into something close to, call it, 23% or so efficient module based on normal conversion between cell to module.
基於電池到模塊之間的正常轉換,這將轉化為接近 23% 左右的高效模塊。
We're in the process right now of validating, and hopefully, we'll have over the next few quarters, a new record for efficiency.
我們現在正在驗證過程中,希望在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們將創造一個新的效率記錄。
I don't know if it'll be a cell or a module, still looking at what we end up doing on that.
我不知道它是一個單元還是一個模塊,仍在研究我們最終會做些什麼。
There's some items on our road map that would really be beneficial to help validate that through demonstrating that either with a cell or a record -- or excuse me, cell or a module.
我們的路線圖上的一些項目確實有助於通過用單元或記錄證明這一點來幫助驗證這一點 - 或者對不起,單元或模塊。
Which, by default, will then drive to a record efficiency.
默認情況下,這將推動創紀錄的效率。
So there's still more room to go yet on the core technology and driving to higher level efficiencies.
因此,在核心技術和推動更高水平的效率方面還有更大的發展空間。
The other one that I mentioned, and again, it's complementary, and it's in -- it's a combination of this multi-junction technology that we talked about, which would take efficiencies even above and beyond kind of that profile, as I mentioned, because now you have 2 cells that are harvesting the overall photons and converting them into electrons, which will say that whatever you can do at the top cell level capability would be further enhanced with the bottom cell.
我提到的另一個,同樣,它是互補的,它在 - 它是我們討論過的這種多結技術的組合,正如我提到的那樣,它的效率甚至會超過那種配置,因為現在你有 2 個細胞正在收集整個光子並將它們轉換成電子,這意味著你可以在頂部細胞水平上做的任何事情都將通過底部細胞得到進一步增強。
And so the technology on efficiency can go even beyond kind of those numbers that I represented theoretically, right?
所以效率技術甚至可以超越我理論上所代表的那些數字,對吧?
So there's still ways to go yet on the technology, and we're working very hard to make sure we can realize those benefits over the next several years.
所以在這項技術上還有很長的路要走,我們正在努力確保我們能夠在未來幾年內實現這些好處。
On a CapEx basis, we had this -- I mentioned, I alluded to this, kind of what is the factory of the future and what is the most disruptive, lowest cost factory that we can create, starting with a blank sheet of paper.
在資本支出的基礎上,我們有這個——我提到過,我提到過,什麼是未來的工廠,什麼是我們可以創建的最具破壞性、成本最低的工廠,從一張白紙開始。
That will also drive down the CapEx investment relative to what we initially communicated with Series 6. So that can drive it down probably close to 15% to 20% on a CapEx basis.
相對於我們最初與系列 6 溝通的內容,這也將降低資本支出投資。因此,這可能會在資本支出的基礎上降低近 15% 至 20%。
So we have a road map to drive more CapEx out to be more efficient.
所以我們有一個路線圖來推動更多的資本支出以提高效率。
So therefore, we can -- obviously, the cost to deploy a new factory would on a CapEx per watt basis will be lower than when we originally launched that, which is an objective that we've had.
因此,我們可以 - 顯然,以每瓦資本支出為基礎部署新工廠的成本將低於我們最初推出該工廠時的成本,這是我們的目標。
And it's tied to the realization of the systems/energy services and proceeds and such.
它與系統/能源服務和收益等的實現有關。
It's not -- they're 2 independent things.
不是——它們是兩個獨立的東西。
I mean there's not a constraint.
我的意思是沒有約束。
You can see by where our balance sheet is right now, that ability to continue to invest and the capacity and the road map that we have in front of us.
你可以從我們現在的資產負債表、繼續投資的能力以及我們面前的能力和路線圖看出。
There's not any linkage per se to any proceeds we received either from the systems business or the energy services business.
我們從系統業務或能源服務業務獲得的任何收益本身沒有任何联系。
Operator
Operator
Our final question comes from Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
我們的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Weinstein。
Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst
Michael Weinstein - United States Utilities Analyst
Can you talk about what would drive capacity adds in any particular regions or existing locations as you -- in the past few years, this has been driven by a move from the Series 4 to Series 6 going forward?
你能談談什麼會推動任何特定地區或現有地點的產能增加——在過去的幾年裡,這是由從系列 4 到系列 6 的發展推動的嗎?
Is it demand growth or something else that drives it?
是需求增長還是其他驅動因素?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Look, it's -- whenever we grow, we want to make sure that it's tied to a market indicator, right?
看,這是 - 每當我們成長時,我們都希望確保它與市場指標掛鉤,對嗎?
And basically, it really has to start with relative competitive advantage and position of the technology, the market has to be there, all right?
基本上,它真的必須從相對競爭優勢和技術地位開始,市場必須在那裡,好嗎?
And the good thing about where we are now with solar procurement.
以及我們現在在太陽能採購方面的優勢。
It used to be policy-led, now it's economic procurement.
以前是政策主導,現在是經濟採購。
People are buying solar from a pure economic standpoint.
人們從純粹的經濟角度購買太陽能。
And so I don't really see any constraints on the market per se.
所以我真的沒有看到市場本身有任何限制。
But we do look to markets where we would have advantages around our technology.
但我們確實會尋找在我們的技術方面具有優勢的市場。
So hot, humid climates, for example, would be a market that would be attractive to us.
例如,如此炎熱、潮濕的氣候將是一個對我們有吸引力的市場。
Again, being closer to the market or at least driving efficient shipment logistics routes to access the market is important.
同樣,更接近市場或至少推動高效的貨運物流路線進入市場很重要。
The reality is freight cost is 10%, north of 10% of the overall cost of the product.
實際情況是運費佔產品總成本的 10% 以北的 10%。
And so if you can get that number down, say, cut it in half, you get 5% savings just by getting closer to the customer and reducing the overall freight cost to deliver the technology.
因此,如果您可以將這個數字降低,例如將其減半,那麼您只需靠近客戶並降低交付該技術的總運費成本,就可以節省 5%。
There's many other factors that we use when we screen a site, energy is a meaningful component of our overall cost.
當我們篩選站點時,我們還會使用許多其他因素,能源是我們總成本的重要組成部分。
So we have that competitive cost of energy, labor rates have to be competitive from that standpoint as well.
因此,我們擁有具有競爭力的能源成本,從這個角度來看,勞動力價格也必須具有競爭力。
While the process are largely automated, still a major component of the overall cost structure that has to be thought through in wherever we make decisions on where we're going to manufacture.
雖然該過程在很大程度上是自動化的,但仍然是整體成本結構的主要組成部分,無論我們在哪裡決定製造地點,都必須考慮到這一點。
But the reality is that we will grow, most likely, it's probably going to be outside of the U.S. as we currently envision it.
但現實情況是,我們會成長,很可能會像我們目前設想的那樣在美國以外的地方發展。
It could change.
它可能會改變。
We have ability just to expand within the footprint and drive more throughput of what we already have here in the U.S. as we think about where our next factory would be.
當我們考慮下一個工廠的位置時,我們有能力在足跡範圍內擴大並提高我們在美國已有的產量。
As we currently envision it, it would probably be in an international market somewhere.
正如我們目前設想的那樣,它可能會出現在某個國際市場上。
Somewhere close to customers, close to where there's a strong recurring annual demand requirement.
靠近客戶的地方,靠近有強烈的經常性年度需求要求的地方。
And one that we have, our technology is well positioned and competitively advantaged, whether it's hot and humid climates, whether it's the advantages of our Co2 footprint, environmental aspects around our technology, which more and more markets are starting to value.
我們擁有的一項技術,無論是炎熱潮濕的氣候,還是我們的二氧化碳足跡優勢,以及我們技術周圍的環境方面,我們的技術都處於有利地位和競爭優勢,越來越多的市場開始重視這些。
Those are the types of things that we take in consideration as we would think about any expansion.
這些是我們在考慮任何擴展時會考慮的事物類型。
Operator
Operator
We have completed the allotted time for questions.
我們已經完成了分配的提問時間。
This concludes today's conference call.
今天的電話會議到此結束。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連接。