First Republic Bank (FRC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to First Republic Bank's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Ioanilli, Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到 First Republic Bank 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給副總裁兼投資者關係總監 Mike Ioanilli。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to First Republic Bank's Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Speaking today will be Jim Herbert, Founder and Executive Chairman; Mike Roffler, CEO and President; Mike Selfridge, Chief Banking Officer; Bob Thornton, President of Private Wealth Management; Olga Tsokova, Chief Accounting Officer and Deputy Chief Financial Officer; and Neal Holland, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，歡迎來到 First Republic Bank 2022 年第四季度電話會議。今天發言的是創始人兼執行主席 Jim Herbert；首席執行官兼總裁 Mike Roffler； Mike Selfridge，首席銀行官； Bob Thornton，私人財富管理總裁； Olga Tsokova，首席會計官兼副首席財務官；首席財務官 Neal Holland。

Before I hand the call over to Jim, please note that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. We also discuss certain non-GAAP measures of our financial performance, which should be considered in addition to, not as a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

在我將電話轉給吉姆之前，請注意，我們可能會在今天的電話會議上做出受風險、不確定性和假設影響的前瞻性陳述。我們還討論了我們財務業績的某些非 GAAP 衡量標準，這些衡量標準應作為根據 GAAP 編制的財務衡量標準的補充，而不是替代。

For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of the non-GAAP calculation of certain financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measure to the bank's FDIC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today, all available on the bank's website.

為了更全面地討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性，以及將某些財務措施的非 GAAP 計算與銀行 FDIC 備案文件中最具可比性的 GAAP 財務措施進行核對，包括今天提交的 8-K 表格，所有這些都可以在銀行的網站上找到。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Jim Herbert.

現在我想把電話轉給吉姆赫伯特。

Thank you, Mike, very much, and good morning, everyone. It was a very strong year for First Republic. Our time-tested business model and service culture continue to perform really well. In fact, it was our best year ever in many ways. Our new 2022 Net Promoter Score, which was announced this morning, is our highest ever client satisfaction level.

非常感謝邁克，大家早上好。對於第一共和國來說，這是非常強勁的一年。我們久經考驗的商業模式和服務文化繼續表現良好。事實上，從許多方面來說，這是我們有史以來最好的一年。我們今天上午宣布的新 2022 年淨推薦值是我們有史以來最高的客戶滿意度。

It's actually extraordinarily strong. Our nonperforming assets at year-end were just 5 basis points. This is low even for First Republic. Acceptable client service and our strong focused lending led to safe organic growth during the year. In 2022, total loans grew $32 billion, a record, and we had record earnings for the year. In uncertain times like these and ability to continue to grow safely, it is quite viable and very rare.

它實際上非常強大。我們年末的不良資產僅為 5 個基點。即使對於第一共和國來說，這也很低。可接受的客戶服務和我們強有力的重點貸款導致了這一年的安全有機增長。 2022 年，貸款總額增長了 320 億美元，創歷史新高，我們當年的收益也創下歷史新高。在這樣的不確定時期以及能夠繼續安全增長的能力，這是非常可行且非常罕見的。

Let me take a moment to provide some perspective on the current rate environment and the Fed tightening cycle as we see it. Since our last call about 90 days ago, the Fed has raised rates another 125 basis points. At the same time, the 10-year treasury has declined 50 basis points. The resulting increased rate inversion has begun to put some pressure on our net interest margin and net interest income. However, history and experience has shown that this type of inverted yield curve has a limited duration. Cycles are just that. They're cycles.

讓我花點時間談談我們對當前利率環境和美聯儲緊縮週期的一些看法。自從我們大約 90 天前最後一次通話以來，美聯儲又將利率提高了 125 個基點。與此同時，10 年期國債下跌了 50 個基點。由此導致的利率倒掛增加已經開始對我們的淨息差和淨利息收入造成一些壓力。然而，歷史和經驗表明，這種收益率曲線倒掛的持續時間是有限的。週期就是這樣。它們是循環。

During First Republic's 37-year history, there have been 5 tightening cycles. We've continued to grow and prosper through them and especially after each one. On average, over the last 40 years, the Fed has started to cut rates less than a year after the 10-year yield has peaked. The market currently expects the Fed to start cutting rates during the back half of this year, which will be consistent with prior tightening cycles and is also our current assumption.

在第一共和國 37 年的歷史中，有 5 次緊縮週期。我們通過他們繼續成長和繁榮，尤其是在每一個之後。平均而言，在過去 40 年中，美聯儲在 10 年期國債收益率見頂後不到一年就開始降息。市場目前預計美聯儲將在今年下半年開始降息，這將與之前的緊縮週期一致，也是我們目前的假設。

We are staying focused on executing our model, and we remain very committed to delivering solid results through all market conditions. The bedrock of our performance is providing truly exceptional, differentiated service, maintaining very strong credit, delivering safe organic growth and the results follow.

我們將繼續專注於執行我們的模型，並且我們仍然非常致力於在所有市場條件下提供可靠的結果。我們業績的基石是提供真正卓越的差異化服務，保持非常強大的信用，實現安全的有機增長，結果隨之而來。

Now let me turn the call over to Mike Roffler, CEO and President.

現在讓我把電話轉給首席執行官兼總裁 Mike Roffler。

Thanks, Jim. 2022 was a terrific year with record loan growth, record loan origination volume, record revenue and record earnings per share. Let me begin by covering some key results for the year. Total loans outstanding were up 24%. Total deposits have grown 13%. Wealth management assets were down only 3%, while the S&P 500 was down more than 19% over the same period.

謝謝，吉姆。 2022 年是非常棒的一年，貸款增長、貸款發放量、收入和每股收益均創歷史新高。讓我首先介紹今年的一些關鍵成果。未償還貸款總額增長了 24%。存款總額增長了 13%。財富管理資產僅下跌 3%，而標準普爾 500 指數同期下跌超過 19%。

This strong growth, in turn, has led to strong financial performance. Year-over-year, total revenues have grown 17%. Net interest income has grown 17%. Earnings per share has grown 7%. And importantly, tangible book value per share has increased 11% during the year. As we look to a more challenging year ahead, we remain well-positioned to deliver safe, strong growth through the consistent execution of our service-focused culture and business model.

這種強勁的增長反過來又帶來了強勁的財務業績。與去年同期相比，總收入增長了 17%。淨利息收入增長了 17%。每股收益增長了 7%。重要的是，年內每股有形賬面價值增長了 11%。展望未來更具挑戰性的一年，我們仍處於有利地位，可以通過始終如一地執行我們以服務為中心的文化和商業模式來實現安全、強勁的增長。

We remain very well capitalized as a result of raising capital methodically and opportunistically over time. Our Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.51% at quarter end. Credit quality remains excellent. Net charge-offs for the fourth quarter were less than $1 million. For the entire year, net charge-offs were less than $3 million or less than 1/5 of a single basis point of average loans.

由於隨著時間的推移有條不紊地和機會主義地籌集資金，我們仍然保持著良好的資本狀況。季度末我們的一級槓桿率為 8.51%。信用質量保持優良。第四季度的淨沖銷額不到 100 萬美元。全年，淨沖銷額低於 300 萬美元或低於平均貸款單個基點的 1/5。

Nonperforming assets ended the year at only 5 basis points of total assets. As Jim mentioned, this is one of our best levels ever. We do not stretch on credit quality to deliver loan growth. Our growth is driven by consistent execution of exceptional client service, one client at a time, each and every day. Today, we released the results of our 2022 Net Promoter Score survey, our client satisfaction scorecard. We are pleased to have achieved a record high score of 80. This is an increase from last year's score, which was also a record at the time.

截至年底，不良資產僅佔總資產的 5 個基點。正如吉姆所說，這是我們有史以來最好的關卡之一。我們不會依靠信貸質量來實現貸款增長。我們的成長是由始終如一地執行卓越的客戶服務推動的，每天一次一個客戶。今天，我們發布了 2022 年淨推薦值調查的結果，即我們的客戶滿意度記分卡。我們很高興獲得了 80 分的歷史新高。這比去年的分數有所提高，這也是當時的記錄。

At the same time, client satisfaction has declined for the overall banking industry. In 2022, the Net Promoter Score for the U.S. banking industry declined to only 31. Our service-focused model is truly differentiated even more so during challenging and disruptive environments. During 2022, we also continued to make thoughtful investments that support service excellence and growth.

與此同時，整個銀行業的客戶滿意度有所下降。 2022 年，美國銀行業的淨推薦值下降至僅 31。我們以服務為中心的模式真正脫穎而出，在充滿挑戰和顛覆性的環境中更是如此。 2022 年期間，我們還繼續進行深思熟慮的投資，以支持卓越服務和增長。

We expanded into the Seattle area by opening our first banking location in the market. We brought on 13 new wealth manager teams, one of our best recruiting years ever. And we successfully upgraded our core banking system, the largest technology project we've ever undertaken. As Jim mentioned, since mid-November, we've been operating with a challenging yield curve.

我們通過在市場上開設第一家銀行網點擴展到西雅圖地區。我們組建了 13 個新的財富管理團隊，這是我們有史以來最好的招聘年份之一。我們成功升級了我們的核心銀行系統，這是我們有史以來最大的技術項目。正如吉姆所提到的，自 11 月中旬以來，我們的收益率曲線一直具有挑戰性。

To help us navigate the margin pressure in the near term, we continue to moderate our expense growth. At the same time, we remain focused on the long term and continue to leverage our reputation of exceptional service to drive new business and grow total households. Our focus on service drives our growth as clients stay with us, do more with us and refer their friends and colleagues.

為了幫助我們在短期內應對利潤率壓力，我們繼續放緩我們的費用增長。與此同時，我們仍然著眼於長期，並繼續利用我們卓越服務的聲譽來推動新業務和增加家庭總數。我們對服務的關注推動了我們的發展，因為客戶留在我們身邊，與我們一起做更多事情並推薦他們的朋友和同事。

In fact, during 2022 and driven by our highest ever level of client satisfaction, total households increased a very strong 15%. This is nearly double the growth rate of the prior year. Over time, this growth compounds continuing to deliver shareholder value and consistent profitability as it has for 37 years since our founding.

事實上，在 2022 年期間，在我們有史以來最高的客戶滿意度的推動下，家庭總數增長了 15%。這幾乎是前一年增長率的兩倍。隨著時間的推移，這種增長複合繼續為股東創造價值和持續的盈利能力，正如我們成立 37 年來所做的那樣。

Overall, 2022 was a very strong year for First Republic. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mike Selfridge, Chief Banking Officer.

總的來說，2022 年對第一共和國來說是非常強勁的一年。現在我想把電話轉給首席銀行官 Mike Selfridge。

Thank you, Mike. Let me provide an update on lending and deposits across our business. Loan origination volume was a record for the year at $73 billion. Our real estate secured lending remained well diversified. Both single-family residential and multifamily achieved record volumes for the year.

謝謝你，邁克。讓我提供有關我們業務的貸款和存款的最新情況。貸款發放量達到 730 億美元，創下當年的歷史新高。我們的房地產抵押貸款仍然多元化。單戶住宅和多戶住宅都創下了今年的記錄。

Purchase activity accounted for 54% of single-family residential volume during the year and 64% during the fourth quarter. As refinance activity has slowed, so have the repayment rates. This provides a strong base for loan growth. We continue to expect to deliver mid-teens loan growth for 2023. I would note that loan originations have some seasonality with the first quarter typically being somewhat slower.

年內購買活動佔單戶住宅交易量的 54%，第四季度佔 64%。隨著再融資活動放緩，還款率也有所放緩。這為貸款增長提供了堅實的基礎。我們繼續預計 2023 年將實現十幾歲的貸款增長。我要指出的是，貸款發放具有一定的季節性，第一季度通常會有所放緩。

In terms of credit, we continue to maintain our conservative underwriting standards. The average loan-to-value ratio for all real estate loans originated during the year was just 57%. Turning to business banking, we continue to deepen our relationships by following clients to the businesses they own or influence. Our relationship-based model also leads to a strong level of referrals to new business clients.

在信用方面，我們繼續保持保守的承保標準。年內發放的所有房地產貸款的平均貸款價值比僅為 57%。談到商業銀行業務，我們通過跟踪客戶到他們擁有或影響的業務來繼續深化我們的關係。我們基於關係的模型還可以為新業務客戶帶來高水平的推薦。

In 2022, our business client base grew by 18%. Business loans and line commitments were up 14% year-over-year. The utilization rate on capital call lines of credit increased slightly to approximately 33% during the fourth quarter. Our capital call line commitments grew 16% during the year as we continue to acquire new clients.

2022 年，我們的商業客戶群增長了 18%。商業貸款和貸款承諾同比增長 14%。第四季度，資本調用信貸額度的利用率略有上升，達到約 33%。隨著我們繼續獲得新客戶，我們的資本調用線承諾在這一年中增長了 16%。

Turning to deposits. We are pleased that total deposits were up 13% year-over-year and 2.4% quarter-over-quarter. We continue to see a shift in deposit product mix as a result of rising rates. Checking represented 59% of total deposits at year-end, down from 64% in September. And CDs accounted for 14% of total deposits at year-end, up from 9% in September.

轉向存款。我們很高興總存款同比增長 13%，環比增長 2.4%。由於利率上升，我們繼續看到存款產品組合發生變化。年末支票存款佔總存款的 59%，低於 9 月份的 64%。 CD 佔年底總存款的 14%，高於 9 月份的 9%。

Preferred banking offices continue to provide an important service channel for our clients and drive deposit gathering. Over the next year, we expect to selectively open new offices to deepen our presence in our existing footprint. Our programs for acquiring and growing our next generation of client relationships, which began more than a decade ago continued to deliver strong results.

首選銀行辦事處繼續為我們的客戶提供重要的服務渠道並推動存款收集。明年，我們希望有選擇地開設新辦事處，以深化我們在現有足跡中的影響力。我們在十多年前開始的獲取和發展下一代客戶關係的計劃繼續取得了強勁的成果。

In 2022, millennial households grew 17%. These younger households are the same high-quality clients that we have always attracted and are part of our strategy to see the long-term growth of First Republic. As Mike and Jim noted, our exceptional Net Promoter Score continues to demonstrate our ability to deliver differentiated client service. Let me take a moment to provide some additional detail.

2022 年，千禧一代家庭增長了 17%。這些年輕家庭是我們一直吸引的優質客戶，也是我們實現 First Republic 長期增長戰略的一部分。正如 Mike 和 Jim 指出的那樣，我們卓越的淨推薦值繼續證明我們提供差異化客戶服務的能力。讓我花點時間提供一些額外的細節。

For clients who identify us as lead bank, our Net Promoter Score is 87, even higher than our overall score. And importantly, nearly 2/3 of our clients now consider us as lead bank. Remarkably, our Net Promoter Score increased in each of the past 3 years as we have dealt with the pandemic and rising levels of economic uncertainty and as we implemented a new core banking system in early 2022.

對於將我們確定為牽頭銀行的客戶，我們的淨推薦值是 87，甚至高於我們的總分。重要的是，我們近 2/3 的客戶現在將我們視為牽頭銀行。值得注意的是，隨著我們應對大流行病和經濟不確定性水平上升以及我們在 2022 年初實施了新的核心銀行系統，我們的淨推薦值在過去 3 年中每年都有所增加。

And during this time, our consistently high scores also increased across every region, every line of business and every generation of clients. Our high client satisfaction remains the driver of our long-term growth. Now let me turn the call over to Bob Thornton, President of Private Wealth Management.

在此期間，我們在每個地區、每個業務線和每一代客戶中的一貫高分也有所增加。我們的高客戶滿意度仍然是我們長期增長的動力。現在讓我把電話轉給私人財富管理總裁 Bob Thornton。

Thank you, Mike. It was a very successful year for our wealth management business. During the year, total assets under management were down only 3%, while the S&P 500 was down more than 19%.

謝謝你，邁克。對於我們的財富管理業務來說，這是非常成功的一年。年內，管理的總資產僅下降 3%，而標準普爾 500 指數下跌超過 19%。

Investment management assets actually increased during the year, driven by strong net client inflow. Wealth management fee revenue was up more than 15% from the prior year. This includes strong growth in fees from brokerage, trust, insurance and foreign exchange services. The combined fees from these services increased 29% year-over-year. And the strong growth in these products is also further diversified our wealth management fee revenue.

在強勁的客戶淨流入推動下，年內投資管理資產實際有所增加。理財手續費收入較上年增長15%以上。這包括經紀、信託、保險和外匯服務費用的強勁增長。這些服務的綜合費用同比增長 29%。而這些產品的強勁增長也進一步多元化了我們的理財手續費收入。

As we have noted before, our exceptional client service is even more highly valued by clients during times of market volatility. We take these opportunities to engage our clients and understand their needs as market conditions change. In fact, a key strength of our business model is our holistic approach to meeting our clients' banking and wealth management needs. This benefits clients and has driven growth through a strong level of internal referrals and a deepening of client relationships.

正如我們之前所指出的，在市場波動時期，我們卓越的客戶服務更受客戶重視。隨著市場條件的變化，我們利用這些機會吸引客戶並了解他們的需求。事實上，我們業務模式的一個關鍵優勢在於我們採用整體方法來滿足客戶的銀行業務和財富管理需求。這使客戶受益，並通過強大的內部推薦水平和深化客戶關係推動了增長。

In this regard, 2022 was a particularly strong year. Our bankers referred over $11.5 billion of AUM to wealth management, and deposit balances from new relationships referred by our wealth management colleagues during the year totaled more than $3 billion. Wealth Management referred deposits and sweep balances now represent over 13% of the bank's total deposits.

在這方面，2022 年是特別強勁的一年。我們的銀行家將超過 115 億美元的 AUM 轉介給財富管理，而我們的財富管理同事在這一年中轉介的新關係存款餘額總計超過 30 億美元。財富管理轉介存款和轉存餘額目前佔銀行總存款的 13% 以上。

Our integrated banking and wealth management model also continues to make First Republic a very attractive destination for successful wealth professionals. In 2022, we welcomed 13 new wealth management teams to First Republic and one of our strongest years ever. This included 5 teams in the fourth quarter alone. So far in 2023, we've already welcomed 2 new wealth management teams to First Republic, reflecting our continued investment in the long-term success of this business.

我們的綜合銀行和財富管理模式也繼續使 First Republic 成為對成功的財富專業人士極具吸引力的目的地。 2022 年，我們迎來了 13 個新的財富管理團隊加入 First Republic，這是我們有史以來最強大的一年。這包括僅在第四節就有 5 支球隊。到 2023 年為止，我們已經迎來了 2 個新的財富管理團隊來到 First Republic，這反映了我們對這項業務長期成功的持續投資。

Overall, our team continues to execute very well. These are a great opportunity to demonstrate our exceptional service, deepen existing relationships and acquire new households.

總的來說，我們的團隊繼續執行得很好。這是展示我們卓越服務、加深現有關係和獲得新家庭的絕佳機會。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Olga Tsokova, Chief Accounting Officer and Deputy Chief Financial Officer.

現在我想把電話轉給首席會計官兼副首席財務官 Olga Tsokova。

Thank you, Bob. I will briefly discuss our strength and stability. Our capital position remains strong. During 2022, we added over $400 million of net new Tier 1 capital through a successful common stock offering. At year-end, Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.51%. Liquidity also remains strong. High-quality liquid assets were 13% of average total assets in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，鮑勃。我將簡要討論我們的力量和穩定性。我們的資本狀況依然強勁。 2022 年，我們通過成功的普通股發行增加了超過 4 億美元的淨新一級資本。年末一級槓桿率為8.51%。流動性也依然強勁。優質流動資產佔第四季度平均總資產的 13%。

Our credit quality remains excellent. Net charge-offs for the year were only $3 million. Over the same period, our provision for credit losses was $107 million, which was driven by our strong loan growth. This is a multiple of nearly 40x. Heading into 2023, our balance sheet remains strong. And now I'll turn the call over to Neal Holland, Chief Financial Officer.

我們的信用質量仍然很好。當年的淨註銷僅為 300 萬美元。同期，我們的信貸損失準備金為 1.07 億美元，這是由我們強勁的貸款增長推動的。這是近 40 倍的倍數。進入 2023 年，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。現在我將把電話轉給首席財務官 Neal Holland。

Thank you, Olga. With a very strong year, our exceptional client service and strong credit powered our safe growth. Our 2022 results were in line with or better than the expectations communicated at the start of the year. Let me take a moment to talk about the year ahead. With the rapid rise in rates and the current inverted yield curve, we continue to experience margin pressure.

謝謝你，奧爾加。憑藉非常強勁的一年，我們卓越的客戶服務和強大的信用推動了我們的安全增長。我們 2022 年的業績符合或優於年初傳達的預期。讓我花點時間談談未來的一年。隨著利率的快速上升和當前收益率曲線的倒掛，我們繼續面臨保證金壓力。

We currently expect the Fed funds rate to peak at 5% and then to gradually decline in the second half of the year. As a result, for the full year 2023, our expected net interest margin to be approximately 25 to 30 basis points lower than the fourth quarter. As a growth bank, we create value by consistently compounding our asset base, a direct result of the exceptional service we provide.

我們目前預計聯邦基金利率將在 5% 的峰值，然後在下半年逐漸下降。因此，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計淨息差將比第四季度低約 25 至 30 個基點。作為一家成長型銀行，我們通過不斷增加資產基礎來創造價值，這是我們提供卓越服務的直接結果。

Therefore, net interest income is a key metric for our differentiated business model. Despite the current margin pressure, we expect net interest income for the full year 2023 to be down only 2% to 5%, given our continued strong growth in loans and investments. As we look to 2024, we expect continued strong loan growth in a more normalized rate environment. As a result, we expect to deliver strong double-digit, net interest income growth, in line with our past performance.

因此，淨利息收入是我們差異化業務模式的關鍵指標。儘管當前利潤率面臨壓力，但鑑於我們的貸款和投資持續強勁增長，我們預計 2023 年全年的淨利息收入將僅下降 2% 至 5%。展望 2024 年，我們預計在更加正常化的利率環境下貸款將繼續強勁增長。因此，我們預計將實現強勁的兩位數淨利息收入增長，與我們過去的表現一致。

As Jim mentioned, the years following tightening cycles have historically been strong for the bank. Turning to expenses. For 2023, we expect expense growth in the high-single digits. As a reminder, expenses are typically higher in the first quarter due to the seasonal impact of payroll taxes and benefits.

正如吉姆所提到的，從歷史上看，緊縮週期之後的幾年對銀行來說一直很強勁。談到開支。對於 2023 年，我們預計費用將以高個位數增長。提醒一下，由於工資稅和福利的季節性影響，第一季度的支出通常會更高。

As we discussed at Investor Day, we continue to prioritize our expenses in a way that will not sacrifice client service, growth or safety and soundness. We have identified $150 million of planned expenses that we will not incur in 2023. This is already having a positive impact on our expense base, and helped us keep expenses flat from the third to fourth quarter.

正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣，我們將繼續以一種不會犧牲客戶服務、增長或安全與穩健的方式來優先考慮我們的支出。我們已經確定了 1.5 億美元的計劃支出，我們不會在 2023 年發生這些支出。這已經對我們的支出基礎產生了積極影響，並幫助我們在第三季度到第四季度保持支出持平。

With respect to income taxes, the full year tax rate is expected to be around 24%. While the current rate environment is challenging, our model is strong. We will continue to deliver exceptional client service, grow new households and provide safe growth in 2023 and beyond.

所得稅方面，全年稅率預計在24%左右。儘管當前的利率環境充滿挑戰，但我們的模型非常強大。我們將繼續提供卓越的客戶服務，發展新家庭並在 2023 年及以後實現安全增長。

Now let me turn the call back to Mike Roffler.

現在讓我把電話轉回 Mike Roffler。

Thank you, Neal. It was a strong year with record client service levels, record loan growth and record credit performance. Our time-tested service model remains solid. Our entire team remains focused on executing our client service strategy, one client at a time.

謝謝你，尼爾。這是強勁的一年，客戶服務水平、貸款增長和信貸業績均創歷史新高。我們久經考驗的服務模式依然穩固。我們的整個團隊始終專注於執行我們的客戶服務戰略，一次一個客戶。

Now we'd be happy to take your questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos 那裡提出我們的第一個問題。

So from a big picture view, if we look at the NIM outlook, it's a bit worse than what you had guided to at the Investor Day. And before I get into my deeper questions, what's changed since the Investor Day, which is driving the lower NIM outlook for the year?

因此，從大局的角度來看，如果我們看一下 NIM 的前景，它比你在投資者日的指導要差一些。在我進入更深層次的問題之前，自投資者日以來發生了什麼變化，這導致今年的 NIM 前景較低？

Yes, Steve, thanks. I think if you look at Investor Day, what's happened since then, and I think we highlighted this a bit in the prepared remarks, the 10-year has gone down 50, 60 basis points. And so the inversion of the yield curve has had a pretty significant impact on just rates in general. And obviously, the macro environment is a thing that we can't control. The things we can control are our service levels, and how we acquire households. And so with that inversion, which as we noted, won't last a very long time, and we are now partway through it. And so I think that is the biggest driver for the change in outlook relative to about 65 days ago.

是的，史蒂夫，謝謝。我想如果你看看投資者日，從那以後發生了什麼，我想我們在準備好的發言中強調了這一點，10 年期國債下跌了 50、60 個基點。因此，收益率曲線的倒掛總體上對利率產生了相當大的影響。顯然，宏觀環境是我們無法控制的。我們可以控制的是我們的服務水平，以及我們如何獲得家庭。因此，正如我們所指出的那樣，這種反轉不會持續很長時間，我們現在已經完成了一半。因此，我認為這是與大約 65 天前相比前景發生變化的最大驅動力。

Got you, okay. And Mike, it sounds like you're upping the expectations for expense management. And I think you guided to about a 65% efficiency ratio for 2023. Is that still intact when you put these pieces together?

明白了，好吧。邁克，聽起來你提高了對費用管理的期望。而且我認為您指導的 2023 年效率比約為 65%。當您將這些部分放在一起時，它仍然完好無損嗎？

Because of the margin outlook, it will be a little bit higher, but we have identified incremental expenses that will be deferred, not planned for the current year.

由於利潤率前景，它會稍微高一點，但我們已經確定了將被推遲的增量費用，而不是今年的計劃。

Are you willing to share a new range with us?

您願意與我們分享新系列嗎？

Yes. I mean, just because of the revenue outside of the equation, it's just doing the math of a 2% to 5% decline with net interest income, it's about 66% to 68% with that guidepost with high single-digit growth rates of expenses.

是的。我的意思是，僅僅因為等式之外的收入，它只是在計算淨利息收入下降 2% 到 5%，在具有高個位數支出增長率的路標下，它大約是 66% 到 68% .

Got you, okay. And then just to dive into the deposit side a little deeper, so it's pretty remarkable to see that the rate being paid on checking balance is more than doubled from the prior quarter, but average balances still came down about $9 billion.

明白了，好吧。然後更深入地研究存款方面，所以看到支票餘額支付的利率比上一季度增加了一倍多，但平均餘額仍然下降了約 90 億美元，這是非常了不起的。

Can you take us behind the scenes in the quarter? What's the typical conversation you had with customers and maybe underlying the NIM assumptions, where do you see the rate paid on checking moving to? And maybe where does that mix stabilize?

你能帶領我們了解本季度的幕後故事嗎？您與客戶進行的典型對話是什麼，也許是 NIM 假設的基礎，您在哪裡看到支票支付的利率轉移到哪裡？也許這種混合穩定在哪裡？

Importantly, I think there's still about $67 billion, I think, of 0 cost checking, which is operating balances and cost. Obviously, as rates have gone to 4.5%, the conversations between our client-facing people and clients have talked about where might they be able to achieve a bit better yield.

重要的是，我認為還有大約 670 億美元的零成本檢查，即運營餘額和成本。顯然，隨著利率上升到 4.5%，我們面向客戶的人員和客戶之間的對話已經討論了他們可以在哪裡獲得更好的收益。

And as a service organization that's what we continue to focus on is that relationship with our clients to ensure they're leaving the right balances in checking for their operating needs and there are other yield alternatives, either in wealth management, money market, certificates of deposit, different alternatives. I think we communicated a low 30s beta on overall deposits in the past. And we feel like sort of 30% to 35% is about the right range still at this point, and that's consistent with what we said before at Investor Day.

作為一家服務機構，我們繼續關注的是與客戶的關係，以確保他們在檢查運營需求時留下正確的餘額，並且還有其他收益替代方案，無論是在財富管理、貨幣市場、證書存款，不同的選擇。我認為我們過去傳達了 30 多歲的整體存款貝塔值。我們覺得 30% 到 35% 的比例在這一點上仍然是正確的範圍，這與我們之前在投資者日所說的一致。

Okay. And then if I could just squeeze one more, Mike, going back to the new NIM outlook, I know Jim said in his commentary that you guys expect rates would decline more in line with the market in the second half of 2023. If rates were to move to, say, 5%, 5.5% rates and stay there and not come down in the second half, how would that change your NIM outlook for 2023?

好的。然後，如果我能再擠一點，邁克，回到新的 NIM 展望，我知道吉姆在他的評論中說，你們預計利率將在 2023 年下半年與市場同步下降。如果利率是比如說，5%、5.5% 的利率並保持不變，下半年不會下降，這將如何改變您對 2023 年的 NIM 展望？

So it -- once it stabilizes, you sort of stabilize from there. So I don't think it changes it a whole lot. I think the pace of change is what has happened this year that led to the increase or the increase in funding cost.

所以它——一旦它穩定下來，你就會從那裡穩定下來。所以我不認為它會改變很多。我認為變化的速度是今年發生的導致融資成本增加或增加的事情。

And the real impact, if you think about it is -- in the future, if you leap forward to '24 and you're stable is when you'll start to see the inflection where net interest income starts to grow. Right now, that looks like the back half of the year on a linked quarter basis, if the Fed delays that might delay that a quarter, but then you start to see the inflection higher thereafter.

如果你仔細想想，真正的影響是——在未來，如果你躍進到 24 歲並且保持穩定，那麼你將開始看到淨利息收入開始增長的拐點。現在，如果美聯儲推遲可能會推遲一個季度，這看起來像是下半年的相關季度，但之後你會開始看到拐點走高。

We'll take the next question from Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們將接受 Compass Point 的 Dave Rochester 的下一個問題。

Just on your NIM guide real quick. Are you assuming for some of the funding of earning asset growth, primarily CDs and borrowings at this point? Maybe you can just talk about the mix there and the growth of deposits that you're thinking about? And then you did have a decent amount of one-off in noninterest-bearing, which a lot of banks are experiencing at this point.

就在你的 NIM 指南上，真的很快。您目前是否假設一些資金用於賺取資產增長，主要是 CD 和借款？也許你可以談談那裡的組合和你正在考慮的存款增長？然後你確實有相當數量的一次性無息，很多銀行在這一點上都在經歷。

I was just curious how should we expect this type of pace to continue? Or do you see a level at which you'd expect the trend to sort of subside and then get down to more of a sticky base that's remaining, where do you see that sort of trailing off?

我只是很好奇我們應該如何期待這種步伐繼續下去？或者您是否看到了您預期趨勢會消退然後下降到更多剩餘的粘性基礎的水平，您在哪裡看到這種尾隨？

Yes. Maybe on the -- what you're getting at is the average balance size. It has come down. So average balance is per account, peaked probably at the end of last year. They have come down closer to their pre-pandemic levels. And then obviously, as I mentioned earlier, there's a level of operating needs that clients have to have to operate with. I think that the outlook, we're going to largely fund loan growth with deposits, and then there'll be a mix of borrowings that is also utilized just like we have in the past. And the growth rate will probably be greater in CDs than it will be in checking given where the rates are this year, and that's reflected in our outlook.

是的。也許在 - 你得到的是平均餘額大小。它已經下來了。所以平均餘額是每個賬戶的，可能在去年年底達到頂峰。他們已經下降到更接近大流行前的水平。然後很明顯，正如我之前提到的，客戶必須滿足一定程度的運營需求。我認為，從前景來看，我們將主要通過存款為貸款增長提供資金，然後還會像過去一樣使用混合借款。考慮到今年的利率，CD 的增長率可能會高於檢查的增長率，這反映在我們的展望中。

Okay, great. And then maybe just on capital. Tier 1 leverage looks good. I noticed the CET1 ratio dipped down a little bit below 9%. Is that an issue at all? And just how are you thinking about that level going forward?

好，太棒了。然後也許只是在資本上。一級槓桿看起來不錯。我注意到 CET1 比率略低於 9%。這是一個問題嗎？您如何看待未來的水平？

No issue with our capital currently. We -- as always, we remained opportunistic and methodical relative to capital, whether be a preferred or common.

目前我們的資金沒有問題。我們——一如既往，相對於資本，我們仍然是機會主義的和有條不紊的，無論是優先股還是普通股。

Great. And then maybe one last one on loan production rates. Maybe if you could just kind of go through the key products and talk about where your pricing loans today, that would be great.

偉大的。然後可能是最後一個關於貸款生產率的問題。也許如果你可以通過一些關鍵產品來談談你今天在哪裡定價貸款，那就太好了。

Sure. David, it's Mike Selfridge to give you a couple of indicators here and look more -- rather look more at the lock pipeline as of today. So single-family or lock pipeline, these are deals that are in the queue due to close soon. Single-family mortgages about 5.80%, multifamily about 5.4%, commercial about 5.6%, and the whole locked real estate loans right now are a little over 5%, maybe 5.10%. And then on the business banking side, nothing has changed. Their capital call lines tend to be the larger part of the pipeline, and that still remains in the prime minus 75 to prime minus 100 basis point range.

當然。 David，Mike Selfridge 在這里為您提供了幾個指標，並且要多看一些 — 而要多看今天的鎖管道。所以單戶或鎖定管道，這些是即將關閉的隊列中的交易。單戶抵押貸款約 5.80%，多戶抵押貸款約 5.4%，商業約 5.6%，目前整個鎖定的房地產貸款略高於 5%，可能為 5.10%。然後在商業銀行方面，一切都沒有改變。他們的資本調用線往往是管道的較大部分，並且仍然保持在 prime-75 到 prime-100 基點的範圍內。

We'll take the next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的下一個問題。

I just wanted to follow up on the margin on 2 things. One, I think, Mike, you mentioned still you expect the 30% to 35% deposit beta -- in the world where rates don't actually get cut and the forward curve doesn't play out, like do you -- like just handicap the risk. I think the concern on the margin outlook generally has been that deposit cost mix shift, you've heard from some of the other big banks today could be much worse than we've seen just given that we've not tested for this in a long, long time. Like what's your comfort level on the 30 to 35 beta holding?

我只想跟進兩件事的保證金。一，我想，邁克，你提到你仍然期望 30% 到 35% 的存款貝塔——在這個世界上，利率實際上沒有被削減，遠期曲線沒有發揮作用，就像你一樣——就像妨礙風險。我認為對保證金前景的擔憂通常是存款成本組合的變化，你今天從其他一些大銀行那裡聽到的情況可能比我們看到的要糟糕得多，因為我們還沒有對此進行測試很長時間。比如你對 30 到 35 倍持有的舒適度是多少？

So that is our best perspective at this point in time, given our outlook. And as Jim mentioned, this doesn't last forever, given history of 40-plus years. And so the 10-year is also telling you something where it's dipped to ä as of yesterday as to where the market feels rates are moving. And so the beta could be a little bit higher if they hold an extra quarter or 2, but the fact that the pace is slowing, there'll be a little bit of, what I call, a catch-up that always is at the end of a cycle, but the pace slows because of the time just passes.

因此，鑑於我們的前景，這是我們目前最好的觀點。正如吉姆所說，鑑於 40 多年的歷史，這種情況不會永遠持續下去。因此，10 年期國債也告訴你一些事情，它在昨天跌至 ä 的位置，表明市場認為利率正在走向何方。因此，如果他們持有額外的四分之一或 2 個季度，Beta 可能會更高一些，但事實上步伐正在放緩，會有一點點，我稱之為追趕，總是在一個週期結束，但由於時間剛剛過去，步伐變慢了。

And so I would say that we feel pretty confident where we are. And it will be dependent upon macro outlook, which is the one thing that you all know we don't control and nor does anyone else.

所以我想說我們對自己所處的位置非常有信心。這將取決於宏觀前景，這是你們都知道我們無法控制的一件事，其他任何人也無法控制。

Understood. And just -- sorry, if I missed it, did you talk about -- like in terms of the margin, I'm assuming there's some benefit in the back half if you assume rate cuts in your NIM guidance of down 25 to 30 bps. How should we think about the NIM trajectory? Like does it fall closer to 2% by the middle of the year by the second or third quarter before rebounding in the back half? .

明白了。只是 - 抱歉，如果我錯過了，你是否談到過 - 就利潤率而言，我假設如果你假設你的 NIM 指導降息 25 至 30 個基點，後半部分會有一些好處.我們應該如何看待 NIM 軌跡？到第二季度或第三季度，它會在年中下降接近 2%，然後在下半年反彈嗎？ .

No, I wouldn't go to it sort 2%. It sort of stabilizes at the middle part of the year. And importantly, after you have a little bit of a dip in net interest income here in the first half, then you start to see it increase towards the back half of the year and starts to have a real positive trajectory into '24.

不，我不會去排序 2%。它在年中穩定下來。而且重要的是，在上半年淨利息收入略有下降之後，您會開始看到它在今年下半年增加，並開始在 24 世紀出現真正的積極軌跡。

Understood. And just one last question around growth. I know, Jim, you've talked about market share in environments like this. Just give us a sense of, is this environment any different in terms of gaining market share? And how your customers -- there's been a kind of wealth disruption, how is that factoring in, in terms of just the appetite to buy homes and in terms of mortgage loan growth today versus the last 10 or 15 years.

明白了。最後一個關於增長的問題。我知道，吉姆，你已經談到了在這樣的環境中的市場份額。讓我們感覺一下，這種環境在獲得市場份額方面有什麼不同嗎？以及你的客戶 - 有一種財富中斷，這是如何考慮的，就購買房屋的胃口和今天的抵押貸款增長而言，與過去 10 或 15 年相比。

Well, this disruptive moment, and we all know that mortgage market is being disrupted a little bit is an extraordinary opportunity for us to take share. Moments like this are very special. The volume of demand is lower. We all know that, although my guess is it will pick up in the spring quite a lot. But the disruptive nature -- the disruption that's going on in the mortgage market, people pulling back, et cetera, is just handing us up. It's on a silver platter.

好吧，這個顛覆性的時刻，我們都知道抵押貸款市場正在被一點點顛覆，這對我們來說是一個分享的難得機會。這樣的時刻非常特別。需求量較低。我們都知道，儘管我猜測它會在春季大量回升。但破壞性的本質——抵押貸款市場正在發生的破壞，人們退縮等等，只是讓我們失望。它在銀盤上。

And does that create some pricing power like as the yield curve, Mike, you mentioned earlier, dropped. Did the spreads widen on this product?

這是否創造了一些定價權，就像你之前提到的收益率曲線下降一樣，邁克。該產品的點差擴大了嗎？

It's not a pricing issue. It's a service issue and availability issue.

這不是定價問題。這是一個服務問題和可用性問題。

Got it. But I'm just wondering, are you able to see better spreads when the yield curve -- or is the pricing on these like the 580, Mike mentioned, will that trend more or less with whatever happens with the yield curve?

知道了。但我只是想知道，當收益率曲線出現時，你是否能夠看到更好的利差——或者邁克提到的 580 之類的定價，無論收益率曲線發生什麼情況，這種趨勢或多或少都會出現？

Let me turn this to Mike, but the pricing on the acquisition of a new well off household on a short-term asset like a 4- or 5-year mortgage is semi irrelevant. You buy -- you take a lot of new household like this, they stay with you for life.

讓我把這個問題轉給邁克，但是用 4 年或 5 年期抵押貸款等短期資產收購一個新的富裕家庭的定價是半無關緊要的。你買 - 你帶了很多這樣的新家庭，他們會和你一起生活。

Yes. And Ebrahim, I want to clarify on Dave Rochester's comment the lock production on the single family is -- a little under 5% is what I meant to say about 4.80. But these are still, as we've said in the past, 8 plus clients and they get very good pricing for full relationship and full service at First Republic.

是的。易卜拉欣，我想澄清一下 Dave Rochester 的評論，即單戶家庭的鎖產量——略低於 5% 是我想說的 4.80。但正如我們過去所說，這些仍然是 8 個以上的客戶，他們在 First Republic 獲得全面關係和全面服務的非常優惠的價格。

Our next question comes from Casey Haire with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

Yes. Operating leverage question for '24. I appreciate the guide on NII up low double digits next year. Just wondering, just given that you guys are doing a good job on the expense front and deferring, I think, you bumped it up to $150 million. Just wondering, do we see a catch-up next year on all this expense deferral? Or is there an opportunity to improve the efficiency ratio from that [66, 68] when NIM starts going the right way.

是的。 '24 的經營槓桿問題。我很欣賞明年 NII 的低兩位數指南。只是想知道，鑑於你們在費用方面做得很好並且推遲，我認為你們將它提高到了 1.5 億美元。只是想知道，我們是否會在明年看到所有這些費用延期的追趕？或者，當 NIM 開始走上正軌時，是否有機會從 [66、68] 提高效率比。

Yes. There's a strong opportunity in '24 to see a very strong improvement in our efficiency ratio as we're really looking for ways to optimize, prioritize, make the company even more efficient than we are today, we expect strong operating leverage into the future.

是的。在 24 年有一個很好的機會看到我們的效率比有很大的提高，因為我們真的在尋找優化、優先排序的方法，使公司比今天更有效率，我們預計未來會有強大的運營槓桿。

On the -- switching gears to the loan growth, can we get a sense for how the pipeline is doing at year-end versus 9/30.

關於 - 轉向貸款增長，我們能否了解管道在年底與 9/30 時的表現。

Casey, Mike Selfridge. I would say -- I would characterize it as healthy. It's down from the last quarter, but it's up year-over-year. And obviously, there's been headwinds on the refinance side, and that's been more difficult. But there's other parts of the pipeline, I would note that are doing very well. Business banking, for example, is at a high. Other avenues, PLP, PLOC, securities lending. So again, a healthy pipeline going into the quarter.

凱西，邁克塞爾弗里奇。我會說——我會把它描述為健康的。它比上一季度有所下降，但同比有所上升。顯然，再融資方面存在逆風，這更加困難。但是管道的其他部分，我會注意到它們做得很好。例如，商業銀行業務處於高位。其他途徑，PLP、PLOC、證券借貸。因此，再次進入本季度的健康管道。

Okay. And just on following up...

好的。只是在跟進......

On the loan growth, let me add. Go ahead.

關於貸款增長，讓我補充一下。前進。

No, go ahead, go ahead.

不，繼續，繼續。

I was just going to say the loan growth itself. I'll also note that CPRs are down, and so that gives us a good base from which to grow.

我只想說貸款增長本身。我還會注意到 CPR 下降了，因此這為我們提供了一個良好的增長基礎。

And then the capital call, that came in a little bit stronger than certainly what you were sort of experiencing in November. Just any color on -- is that business picking up?

然後是資本需求，這比你在 11 月份所經歷的肯定要強一些。只是任何顏色 - 生意好轉了嗎？

I would say, well, a little bit of improvement from 32% to 33% utilization. That's down from a year ago, which was just over 40%. So that industry is still seeing -- it's challenged in the sense of slower velocity of deals just like last quarter, slower pace of fundraising, but cautious but still active investors. And there was a slight tick up in private equity activity overall for the industry, and that drove a little bit of the utilization for us.

我會說，好吧，利用率從 32% 提高到 33%。這比一年前下降了 40% 以上。所以這個行業仍然看到 - 它在交易速度較慢的意義上面臨挑戰，就像上個季度一樣，籌款速度較慢，但謹慎但仍然活躍的投資者。整個行業的私募股權活動略有上升，這為我們帶來了一點利用率。

Okay, great. And just one more. The spot deposit costs at 12/31 versus the 99 bps in the quarter. And also the spot CD costs, if you could provide that, given that's a critical driver here?

好，太棒了。還有一個。即期存款成本為 12/31，而本季度為 99 個基點。還有現貨 CD 成本，如果你能提供的話，考慮到這是這裡的關鍵驅動因素？

Yes. We ended the quarter with an average of 99 basis points. And looking at where we ended spot at 12/31, we were up about 30 basis points from there.

是的。我們以平均 99 個基點結束了本季度。看看我們在 12/31 的收盤價，我們從那裡上漲了大約 30 個基點。

Okay. Any color on the CDs versus that 279 level in the quarter?

好的。 CD 上的任何顏色與本季度的 279 水平相比？

Yes. It just tends to move around depending on where we're trying to position. So I don't think it's a meaningful, I think, the 129 spot is the right place to be.

是的。它只是傾向於根據我們試圖定位的位置來回移動。所以我認為這沒有意義，我認為 129 位是正確的位置。

We'll take the next question from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起接受 Manan Gosalia 的下一個問題。

I had a question on the duration of the CD book. Some of the promo CD durations that you were offering -- or some of the promo CDs you were offering in the past were closer to 4 months. So my question is, what are you seeing clients doing there? Are they just rolling those CDs over for the same term? Or perhaps they may be extending the term a little bit given that you're also offering an 8-month promo rate right now? And then if you have any comments on what the duration of the CD book is and what percentage will likely reprice over the course of the next couple of quarters?

我對 CD 書的持續時間有疑問。您提供的一些促銷 CD 持續時間——或者您過去提供的一些促銷 CD 接近 4 個月。所以我的問題是，您看到客戶在那裡做什麼？他們只是將這些 CD 滾動到同一學期嗎？或者考慮到您現在還提供 8 個月的促銷價，他們可能會稍微延長期限？然後，如果您對 CD 書籍的持續時間以及在接下來的幾個季度中可能重新定價的百分比有何評論？

Currently, I'd say clients are a little more inclined on the 8 and 10 months versus shorter. Usually, every rollover opportunity presents an opportunity for us to demonstrate our extraordinary client service. And so our bankers in the offices are engaging with clients to talk about their needs and maybe do they want to be shorter? Do they want to lock in a little bit more? Do they have other cash needs? And so I think what's important is the rollover opportunity drives a conversation with the client, most importantly.

目前，我認為客戶更傾向於 8 個月和 10 個月，而不是更短的時間。通常，每一次展期機會都為我們提供了一個展示我們卓越客戶服務的機會。因此，我們辦公室的銀行家正在與客戶接觸，討論他們的需求，也許他們想要更短的時間？他們想多鎖定一點嗎？他們還有其他現金需求嗎？因此，我認為重要的是翻車機會推動與客戶的對話，最重要的是。

Given what we talked about with the cycles earlier, staying in sort of what I'll call a 4- to 7-month range for us has made a lot of sense if you believe that the cycle does roll over sort of midyear. And so that's been our duration has been pretty much in that range.

考慮到我們之前談到的周期，如果您認為周期確實會在年中結束，那麼保持在我稱之為 4 到 7 個月的範圍內對我們來說是很有意義的。因此，我們的持續時間幾乎都在這個範圍內。

Got it. So should we assume a majority of the CDs are going to reprice over the course for the next 3 to 6 months?

知道了。那麼我們是否應該假設大多數 CD 將在接下來的 3 到 6 個月內重新定價？

Yes. That's a fair assumption.

是的。這是一個合理的假設。

Okay, great. And then maybe just related to that you said in the past that you like CDs over FHLB funding, given that CDs are a good customer acquisition tool. Is there anything you can share there on maybe the number of new customers that you're bringing in through the promo CD offerings? And do they typically come with some checking account openings as well? And is there rate you have in mind at which it might make more sense to pivot to FHLB over CDs?

好，太棒了。然後可能與你過去所說的你喜歡 CD 而不是 FHLB 資金有關，因為 CD 是一個很好的客戶獲取工具。關於通過促銷 CD 產品帶來的新客戶數量，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？他們通常也會開設一些支票賬戶嗎？您是否認為在 CD 上轉向 FHLB 可能更有意義？

So I think we'd always choose the client first on the first part there. And typically, the CD pricing actually is a little bit more attractive than the FHLB, especially right now. And so those are 2 benefits, but the first being the client first and foremost. And absolutely, when they come into an office, they experience something different versus other offices. And so our service level is meant to, one, bring them in, but second, develop a relationship where we have their checking and their primary banking. And so typically, we're able to get checking accounts on a very good percentage of those and build the relationship over time, which is the most important because we're playing for the long-term client relationship, not just the rate offering in the current moment.

所以我認為我們總是會在第一部分首先選擇客戶。通常情況下，CD 定價實際上比 FHLB 更具吸引力，尤其是現在。所以這是兩個好處，但第一個是客戶至上。當然，當他們進入辦公室時，他們會體驗到與其他辦公室不同的東西。因此，我們的服務水平旨在，第一，將他們帶進來，但第二，建立一種我們有他們的支票和他們的主要銀行業務的關係。因此，通常情況下，我們能夠獲得其中很大一部分的支票賬戶，並隨著時間的推移建立關係，這是最重要的，因為我們正在爭取長期客戶關係，而不僅僅是利率提供當前時刻。

We'll take our next question from Jared Shaw with Wells Fargo.

我們將從 Jared Shaw 和 Wells Fargo 那裡回答下一個問題。

Maybe just circling back on the expenses and the deferred expenses. Could you maybe separate those out on how much of that is coming from maybe deferred hiring versus systems or technology spending versus overall marketing and general spending?

也許只是在費用和遞延費用上盤旋。你能不能把這些分開，看看有多少是來自延遲招聘與系統或技術支出與整體營銷和一般支出？

So Jared, it's a good question. I think it's really broad-based. So some of it is, we've hired a lot of people in the last couple of years. So we have efficiencies from the new core system, maybe we'll hire a little bit less in certain areas. As Mike Selfridge said, and Mike and I think Jim mortgage volume, there's less refinance, so you need less growth in headcount there.

Jared，這是個好問題。我認為它的基礎非常廣泛。所以其中一些是，我們在過去幾年僱傭了很多人。所以我們從新的核心系統中獲得了效率，也許我們會在某些領域減少招聘。正如 Mike Selfridge 所說，Mike 和我認為 Jim 的抵押貸款量，再融資較少，所以你需要較少的員工增長。

And so some of it is, if we had projected to grow headcount, we're going to grow a little bit less. Olga, I think and Neal had mentioned this at Investor Day, there's some natural adjustment to our compensation levels given the mix of business we're doing. That's also factored in. And then everywhere else is a team approach in marketing, IT, everywhere where the team really bands together and think about where is the best dollars to spend for client service and to make sure we continue to be safe and sound to grow, and that's how we're focused.

因此，其中一些是，如果我們預計會增加員工人數，那麼我們的增長就會減少一些。奧爾加，我認為和尼爾在投資者日提到過這一點，鑑於我們正在做的業務組合，我們的薪酬水平有一些自然調整。這也被考慮在內。然後在其他任何地方都是營銷、IT 方面的團隊方法，在團隊真正團結在一起的任何地方，思考在哪里花費最好的資金用於客戶服務，並確保我們繼續安然無恙成長，這就是我們專注的方式。

For example, we've hired already announced 2 teams this year in Wealth Management, as Bob mentioned, that's a great opportunity for us to hire terrific people, bring them over and have new clients come to the bank at the same time. And so it's a little bit more of prioritizing and optimizing our spend to continue to drive safe, stable growth over time.

例如，正如 Bob 提到的，我們今年已經在財富管理部門聘請了 2 個團隊，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，可以聘請優秀的人才，將他們帶過來，同時讓新客戶來到銀行。因此，更多的是優先考慮和優化我們的支出，以隨著時間的推移繼續推動安全、穩定的增長。

Okay, great. And then just finally for me, I guess, on the securities portfolio. Can you give an update on reinvestment rates and what we should expect as maybe a target securities in cash to total assets as we go out the next few quarters?

好，太棒了。最後對我來說，我想，關於證券投資組合。您能否提供有關再投資率的最新信息，以及在接下來的幾個季度中我們應該期望的現金目標證券對總資產的期望值？

Jared, this is Olga. So if we look at our purchases in the fourth quarter, the yield on HQLAs were in low 5s and the munis came high in low 6s, like 6.1, 6.3. And if you look at the yields today or just at quarter end or subsequent to quarter end, HQLA remained relatively similar levels at 5, 5.25 and munis yields lowered slightly from what were seen during the quarter where they're at 5, 5.5.

賈里德，這是奧爾加。因此，如果我們看一下第四季度的購買情況，HQLA 的收益率處於 5s 的低位，市政債券的收益率處於 6s 的低位，例如 6.1、6.3。而且，如果您查看今天或僅在季度末或季度末之後的收益率，HQLA 仍保持相對相似的水平，分別為 5、5.25，市政債券收益率略低於本季度的 5、5.5。

And we expect to keep cash at the same level of total assets through the next year.

我們預計明年現金與總資產的比重將保持在同一水平。

Next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the loan growth, on the mid-teens growth expectation, could you perhaps kind of break it out by loan category, what you're thinking is a reasonable expectation for growth, particularly on the mortgage side given where we're looking at rates as well as purchase activity. If you can give us a breakdown of that mid-teens and the key drivers that would be really helpful.

關於貸款增長，關於 15% 左右的增長預期，你能否按貸款類別細分，你認為是對增長的合理預期，特別是在我們關注利率的抵押貸款方面以及購買活動。如果您能向我們詳細說明這些十幾歲的人和真正有幫助的關鍵驅動因素。

John, it's Mike. Yes, mid-teens loan growth, we're comfortable with that. I would say the mix is going to be consistent as it has been in years previous. So nothing unusual there and where it's coming from. And Jim mentioned the disruption going on. It's never been a better time to acquire clients at First Republic, and that's true for the lending side as well. We were pleasantly surprised that even refi mix was 36%. And keep in mind, those are new households as well. The majority of those refis are other banks clients that we acquire. So nothing unusual in terms of the mix.

約翰，是邁克。是的，十幾歲的貸款增長，我們對此感到滿意。我想說的是，這種組合將與前幾年一樣保持一致。所以那里和它的來源沒有什麼不尋常的。吉姆提到了正在發生的中斷。現在是在 First Republic 獲取客戶的最佳時機，貸款方面也是如此。令我們驚喜的是，即使是 refi mix 也是 36%。請記住，這些也是新家庭。這些 refis 中的大多數是我們收購的其他銀行客戶。所以就混合而言沒有什麼不尋常的。

Okay, all right. And then separately, on the fee side, just wondering what noninterest income growth expectation do you have baked into that 66% to 68% efficiency range? And then more specifically, can you kind of give us some color on how you think about growth that is likely in investment management and brokerage and investment fees.

好的，好的。然後分別在費用方面，只是想知道您對 66% 至 68% 的效率範圍內的非利息收入增長預期是多少？然後更具體地說，你能給我們一些關於你如何看待投資管理、經紀和投資費用可能增長的顏色嗎？

I'm curious what type of upside you see there and maybe what your base case assumption is for the S&P and how it could impact their wealth management revenue.

我很好奇你在那裡看到了什麼樣的上行空間，也許你對標準普爾的基本假設是什麼，以及它如何影響他們的財富管理收入。

This is Bob. Maybe I'll start. So we're looking -- the first quarter, we're looking at investment management to be somewhere in the range of $150 million. And that reflects, in part, we had a number of team hires late in the year that we hadn't seen fully reflected but, we got some of the benefit. S&P is up since September 30 and new team hires. So we look for this year to be a pretty strong year in terms of our overall growth in investment management fees and total wealth management fees.

這是鮑勃。也許我會開始。所以我們正在尋找 - 第一季度，我們正在尋找投資管理在 1.5 億美元的範圍內。這在一定程度上反映了我們在今年晚些時候僱用了一些團隊，我們沒有看到完全反映出來，但我們得到了一些好處。標準普爾自 9 月 30 日起上漲，新團隊聘用。因此，就我們的投資管理費和總財富管理費的整體增長而言，我們預計今年將是非常強勁的一年。

Yes, John. And if I just stand back for total noninterest income, we'd expect it to be in the double digits, which is inclusive of wealth management is a big part of that. And then the other items that we also have had loan fees, deposit fees, et cetera.

是的，約翰。如果我只是站在非利息總收入的後面，我們預計它會達到兩位數，其中包括財富管理是其中很大一部分。然後我們還有其他項目有貸款費用、存款費用等。

Okay, got it. And then my last question is just around the LTV comment. I know you mentioned 57% loan value on all your real estate loans that you had produced. I guess, that was, I think, over the year, but maybe if you can give us a little bit more color on commercial real estate, what is the LTV at origination in your commercial real estate portfolio? And more importantly, what is -- do you have an indication of what the refreshed LTV is in that portfolio.

好，知道了。然後我的最後一個問題是關於 LTV 評論的。我知道您提到了您產生的所有房地產貸款的 57% 貸款價值。我想，那是，我想，在過去的一年裡，但也許如果你能給我們更多關於商業房地產的顏色，那麼你的商業房地產投資組合中最初的 LTV 是多少？更重要的是，您是否知道該投資組合中更新的 LTV 是什麼？

John, it's Mike. The last 2 years, and that would go for today, the median LTV on commercial real estate origination has been about just under 50%, about 46% to be precise. Medium size, about $2 million.

約翰，是邁克。過去 2 年，直到今天，商業房地產發起的 LTV 中值一直不到 50%，準確地說是 46%。中等規模，約 200 萬美元。

Okay, do you have -- how that book is positioned here as we start to see pressure on office and other areas?

好吧，當我們開始看到辦公室和其他領域的壓力時，你有沒有——這本書是如何定位在這裡的？

Yes. No change from our conservative underwriting standards. We are -- have always been conservative and cautious, even more cautious. And I even think our clients are more cautious. So just expect very conservative underwriting.

是的。我們保守的承保標準沒有變化。我們 - 一直是保守和謹慎的，甚至更加謹慎。我什至認為我們的客戶更加謹慎。所以只期望非常保守的承保。

We'll take the next question from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們將接受 Bill Carcache 與 Wolfe Research 的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow-up on the NIM commentary. Your net interest spread is down to 174 basis points versus your NIM at 245 basis points. How would you address the growing divergence across those metrics, including concerns that the net interest margin will eventually converge with the spread.

我想跟進 NIM 的評論。您的淨利差降至 174 個基點，而您的 NIM 為 245 個基點。您將如何解決這些指標之間日益增長的分歧，包括對淨息差最終將與利差收斂的擔憂。

Well, Bill, I think that the big thing that difference between those 2 items is the spread doesn't factor in the nearly $67 billion of noninterest. So we're much more focused on, as we talked about earlier, net interest income versus what the margin will be, and so the divergence doesn't really concern us at all.

好吧，比爾，我認為這兩個項目之間最大的區別在於利差並沒有將近 670 億美元的非利息考慮在內。因此，正如我們之前談到的那樣，我們更加關注淨利息收入與利潤率的關係，因此我們根本不關心這種分歧。

Okay. And then on that topic, as we sort of think about like remixing the CD mix, you've moved back closer to pre-COVID levels, but there's growing concern that we could see CD mix revert to pre-GFC levels in this rate environment. Your mix of CDs was just over 30% of deposits back in 2010. How are you thinking about like the remixing of noninterest bearing deposits, essentially the mix of noninterest-bearing deposits coming lower and CDs remixing higher? Any thoughts around that would be helpful.

好的。然後在這個話題上，當我們考慮重新混合 CD 混音時，你已經回到更接近 COVID 之前的水平，但人們越來越擔心我們可能會看到 CD 混音在這種速率環境中恢復到 GFC 之前的水平.您的 CD 組合在 2010 年剛好超過存款的 30%。您如何看待無息存款的重新組合，本質上是無息存款的組合越來越低，CD 的重新混合越來越高？對此的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes, there is a level of operating accounts that our business clients and consumers do need. And we, as we mentioned earlier, average balances are approaching and starting to close in on pre-pandemic. We have run CDs higher in the past and some of our outlook that we provided earlier does reflect that we expect that to continue here into 2023.

是的，我們的企業客戶和消費者確實需要一定程度的運營賬戶。正如我們之前提到的，我們正在接近並開始接近大流行前的平均餘額。我們過去曾將 CD 推高，我們之前提供的一些展望確實反映出我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。

And as we mentioned earlier, it's a terrific way to get trial with new households and continue to deepen relationships with clients. And so it's a tool the bank has used for 37 years. In some periods, you just use it a lot less than others. And now it's one of those periods, we're using it more.

正如我們之前提到的，這是與新家庭進行試用並繼續加深與客戶關係的絕佳方式。因此，它是該銀行使用了 37 年的工具。在某些時期，您只是比其他時期使用它的次數少得多。而現在正是其中一個時期，我們使用它的次數更多了。

Understood. If I may, with a final question on -- you guys have historically done very little with derivative financial instruments. With the yield that you're earning on cash now roughly in line with your loan yields, does that dynamic influence in any way? Whether you'd consider putting on swaps or at all change how you thought about the use of derivatives?

明白了。如果可以的話，最後一個問題——你們在歷史上對衍生金融工具做的很少。現在您的現金收益與您的貸款收益大致一致，這種動態影響是否有任何影響？您是否會考慮進行掉期交易或完全改變您對使用衍生工具的看法？

It does not.

它不是。

Next question will come from Erika Najarian with UBS.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is for Mike Roffler. I think that how the market is responding to your guidance today is a clear indication that the expected difficulty in 2023 and -- or looking ahead to '24. And to that end, could you share with us what you envision to be the natural efficiency ratio for First Republic as we think -- as we put more volatile rate moves behind us. We think about a more normal investment cycle and also contemplate the impact of HQLA build to a modified LCR goal?

我的第一個問題是 Mike Roffler。我認為市場今天對您的指導的反應清楚地表明 2023 年和 - 或展望 24 年的預期困難。為此，您能否與我們分享您所設想的 First Republic 的自然效率比率，正如我們所想的那樣——因為我們將更多波動的利率變動拋在了身後。我們考慮更正常的投資週期，並考慮 HQLA 構建對修改後的 LCR 目標的影響？

Thank you, Erika. I think you're right to look forward to 2024. And I think when you get through this period where the margin and net interest income is a bit under pressure. And then you go forward, after we stabilize, when the cycle turns, you'd come back to sort of a 62 to 64 range. which is where we've been for many years.

謝謝你，埃里卡。我認為你對 2024 年的期待是正確的。而且我認為當你度過這個利潤率和淨利息收入有點壓力的時期時。然後你繼續前進，在我們穩定之後，當週期轉變時，你會回到 62 到 64 的範圍內。這是我們多年來一直在的地方。

And as a follow-up there, obviously, in 2024, you -- the investors are starting to think about cuts to Fed funds. And to that end, right, it's been a while since we've seen a terminal rate above 0. How should we think about where your deposits would settle to -- deposit costs would settle to relative to the terminal rate, right? We're just -- we've been so used to where deposits have troughed relative to 0. And when we've looked at other points, historically, deposit costs tend to trough above where Fed funds troughs. So perhaps give us a sense of how you -- how much do you think you can cut deposit costs as the Fed starts easing.

作為後續行動，很明顯，到 2024 年，投資者開始考慮削減聯邦基金。為此，我們已經有一段時間沒有看到高於 0 的終端利率。我們應該如何考慮您的存款將結算到哪裡——存款成本將相對於終端利率結算，對吧？我們只是 - 我們已經習慣了存款相對於 0 的低谷。當我們查看其他點時，從歷史上看，存款成本往往會在聯邦基金低谷的上方低谷。因此，也許讓我們了解一下你如何——隨著美聯儲開始放鬆政策，你認為你可以降低多少存款成本。

Erika, thanks for the question. It will be very mix driven, right? And so one of the things that we've talked about is that through 2023 checking ends up above 50% of our deposits by the end of the year, which continues to be extremely valuable from a relative cost perspective to wherever the terminal rate ends up and that's reflective of deep client relationships and the growth in the business banking.

埃里卡，謝謝你的提問。它將非常混合驅動，對嗎？因此，我們談到的一件事是，到 2023 年年底，支票將超過我們存款的 50%，從相對成本的角度來看，無論終端利率如何，這仍然是非常有價值的這反映了深厚的客戶關係和商業銀行業務的增長。

And then money market and CDs will again depend on client appetite and where do they want to lock in, possibly for CD versus money market. And it's hard to project what that will be just because the mix does shift from time to time like it has now. But I think the most important thing is the value of the checking with the terminal rates above 0 continues to be very strong relative to going forward.

然後貨幣市場和 CD 將再次取決於客戶的胃口和他們想鎖定的位置，可能是 CD 與貨幣市場。而且很難預測那會是什麼，因為組合確實像現在這樣不時發生變化。但我認為最重要的是，與未來相比，終端利率高於 0 的檢查價值仍然非常高。

Erika, it's Jim. If I might add for a little bit, give you a little historical perspective. The long term, as Mike said, the long-term checking, if you go back many years, even when we bought the bank back, but even before that, tends to be in the 50%, 55% range, and the CDs range between sort of 10% and 20% of total. It is a mix issue. And then between that is the money market. At what rate they lend, it's hard to predict. But the mix is actually the driver. We got -- it was an abnormal mix when checking went up into the high 60s.

埃里卡，是吉姆。如果我可以補充一點，給你一點歷史視角。長期，正如邁克所說，長期檢查，如果你回到很多年前，即使我們買回銀行，但甚至在那之前，往往在 50%、55% 的範圍內，以及 CD 範圍內在總數的 10% 到 20% 之間。這是一個混合問題。然後是貨幣市場。他們以什麼利率放貸，很難預測。但混合實際上是驅動因素。我們得到了——當支票上升到 60 多歲時，這是一個不正常的組合。

Got it. And it's good to hear from you, Jim.

知道了。吉姆，很高興收到你的來信。

We'll take our next question from Chris McGratty with KBW.

我們將接受 KBW 的 Chris McGratty 的下一個問題。

Just a quick modeling question. Most of the margin questions I think have been addressed. The BOLI run rate, any help there? I know you lowered the tax rate a bit, but any help -- I know there's some seasonality quarter-to-quarter, but kind of a full year comment on BOLI income would be great.

只是一個快速建模問題。我認為大部分保證金問題都已得到解決。 BOLI 運行率，有什麼幫助嗎？我知道你降低了一點稅率，但任何幫助——我知道每個季度都有一些季節性，但對 BOLI 收入的全年評論會很好。

Chris, so in the fourth quarter, we have a couple of items that contributed to increase from the third quarter of the year. One, we had a benefit from the life insurance policy, which we realized in the fourth quarter. And also, we had a positive impact from mark-to-market on some of our insurance contracts.

克里斯，所以在第四季度，我們有幾個項目比今年第三季度有所增長。第一，我們從第四季度實現的人壽保險政策中受益。而且，我們對我們的一些保險合同按市值計價產生了積極影響。

And just to remind you, I think we brought it up on the last -- one of the last calls that we used to offset some of the increase and changes from our benefit costs. So those 2 components contributed to the change from the third quarter. And yes, if you think about the run rate for the quarter, removing those 2 items, I would say, still within 20, 22 in the quarter.

提醒一下，我想我們是在最後一次提出這個問題的——這是我們用來抵消福利成本的一些增加和變化的最後一次電話會議之一。因此，這兩個組成部分促成了第三季度的變化。是的，如果您考慮本季度的運行率，刪除這 2 個項目，我會說，該季度仍在 20、22 之內。

And we'll take our next question from Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

我們將與 Stephens 一起接受 Terry McEvoy 的下一個問題。

I was wondering if you could add some more color on the new offices in 2023. Certain markets that you think present the best opportunities and strategically is the near-term focus on deposits and/or kind of capturing some of the market disruption that Jim mentioned earlier on the call.

我想知道您是否可以在 2023 年為新辦公室添加更多色彩。您認為某些市場提供了最好的機會，並且在戰略上是近期關注存款和/或捕捉 Jim 提到的一些市場混亂早些時候在電話中。

Terry, the answer is yes. We are capturing a lot in terms of the disruption that Jim mentioned. But we're focused on relationships and with relationships comes the full breadth of what we offer. We probably expect maybe around 6 offices over the next year or so, existing footprint. And then as Mike mentioned in his remarks, we're delighted to have expanded into Bellevue, Seattle, and we expect good things out of that region.

特里，答案是肯定的。我們在 Jim 提到的中斷方面捕獲了很多。但我們專注於關係，而隨著關係而來的是我們所提供的全部內容。我們可能預計在未來一年左右的現有足跡中可能會有大約 6 個辦事處。然後正如邁克在他的評論中提到的那樣，我們很高興擴展到西雅圖的貝爾維尤，我們期待該地區的好事。

Great. And one last question. Checking account attrition in 2022. Did that differ at all from that -- I think it's at 1% longer-term average you guys put in the investor presentation?

偉大的。最後一個問題。檢查 2022 年的賬戶流失率。這與那有什麼不同——我認為你們在投資者介紹中所說的長期平均水平為 1%？

No, it did not.

不，它沒有。

We'll take the next question from Andrew Liesch with Piper Sandler.

我們將接受 Andrew Liesch 和 Piper Sandler 的下一個問題。

Just a question on credit, everything else has been asked and answered. Are you seeing anything concerning out there? And when you do expect credit return, what areas of the portfolio would you expect to see the most stress.

只是一個信用問題，其他一切都已提出並回答。你在外面看到什麼有關的東西嗎？當您確實期望信貸回報時，您預計投資組合的哪些領域會承受最大壓力。

Andrew, it's Mike. We feel very good about our positioning right now in credit. We don't expect any issues going forward. So the answer is it's business as usual from our perspective. And Mike noted the credit quality in his remarks, and look at the 3 basis points of net charge-offs over a 23-year period. So sticking to our knitting, being cautious, selective, focusing on relationships.

安德魯，是邁克。我們對我們目前在信貸方面的定位感到非常滿意。我們預計未來不會出現任何問題。所以從我們的角度來看，答案是一切如常。邁克在他的評論中指出了信用質量，並查看了 23 年期間淨註銷的 3 個基點。所以堅持我們的編織，謹慎，有選擇性，專注於關係。

The next question comes from David Smith with Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 David Smith。

I had a question about the wealth management team profitability. You've been adding a lot of teams there lately, both last year and even in the first few weeks of this year. Historically, how long is it before you start tend to see these teams reach their run rate profitability? How long does it kind of take to ramp up there?

我有一個關於財富管理團隊盈利能力的問題。你最近在那裡增加了很多團隊，無論是去年還是今年的前幾週。從歷史上看，您開始看到這些團隊達到其運行率盈利能力需要多長時間？那裡需要多長時間？

Yes. It's actually relatively quick, usually, within a year to 18 months, and that's really a function effect that the teams we hired generally have a lot of traction with their clients. And then also we're getting the deposit benefit from those teams as well, which has been quite successful.

是的。它實際上相對較快，通常在一年到 18 個月內，這確實是一種功能效應，我們僱用的團隊通常對他們的客戶有很大的吸引力。然後我們也從這些團隊那裡獲得了存款收益，這非常成功。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I will turn the conference back to Mike Roffler for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。此時，我會將會議轉回 Mike Roffler 以徵求任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. We're optimistic about the future and continue to look forward to the year ahead. Have a wonderful weekend.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們對未來持樂觀態度，並繼續期待來年。週末愉快。

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。