First Republic Bank (FRC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the First Republic Bank's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加第一共和銀行 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Ioanilli, Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給副總裁兼投資者關係總監 Mike Ioanilli。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to First Republic Bank's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Speaking today will be Jim Herbert, Founder and Executive Chairman; Mike Roffler, CEO and President; Mike Selfridge, Chief Banking Officer; Bob Thornton, President Private Wealth Management; and Olga Tsokova, Chief Accounting Officer and Acting Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，歡迎參加第一共和銀行 2022 年第三季度電話會議。今天發言的將是創始人兼執行主席 Jim Herbert； Mike Roffler，首席執行官兼總裁； Mike Selfridge，首席銀行官； Bob Thornton，私人財富管理總裁；以及首席會計官兼代理首席財務官 Olga Tsokova。

Before I hand the call over to Jim, please note that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements to the bank's FDIC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today, all available on the bank's website.

在我將電話轉交給 Jim 之前，請注意，我們可能會在今天的電話會議中做出受風險、不確定性和假設影響的前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與銀行 FDIC 文件（包括今天提交的 8-K 表格）的任何前瞻性陳述大不相同的風險和不確定性的更完整討論，所有這些都可以在銀行網站上找到。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim Herbert.

現在，我想把電話轉給吉姆赫伯特。

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. It was a strong quarter for First Republic, reflecting the continued strength of our long-term client-centric business model. Let me take a moment to provide some perspective on current economic and rate environment. So in the last 6 months of this year, the Fed has rapidly and aggressively raised interest rates to slow the economy and to fight inflation. Just since our last call, the Fed funds rate has increased 150 basis points. Over the past 37 years, First Republic model of client service and steady client acquisition has performed very well through all economic conditions, including periods of rising rates. The strength of the model is its long-term ability to consistently produce safe organic growth. The recent pace of rate hikes has been more rapid than we've seen in other -- in recent cycles.

謝謝你，邁克。大家，早安。對於第一共和國來說，這是一個強勁的季度，反映了我們以客戶為中心的長期業務模式的持續優勢。讓我花點時間就當前的經濟和利率環境提供一些觀點。因此，在今年的最後 6 個月中，美聯儲迅速而積極地提高利率以減緩經濟增長並對抗通脹。自從我們上次電話會議以來，聯邦基金利率已經提高了 150 個基點。在過去的 37 年中，First Republic 的客戶服務模式和穩定的客戶獲取模式在所有經濟條件下都表現出色，包括利率上升時期。該模型的優勢在於其持續產生安全有機增長的長期能力。最近的加息步伐比我們在其他週期中看到的更快。

Our challenge throughout this environment will be some margin compression, but it will not be credit, client satisfaction or household acquisition. Despite the interim rate conditions, our long-term focus always remains. Maintaining exceptional credit standards so we can focus on the future rather than in the past, operating with strong levels of capital to support franchise growth as we serve existing clients and acquire new ones. Steady execution of our simple straightforward model and always acting in the best interest of our clients while consistently delivering extraordinary and differentiated service. Through this approach, we acquire great clients who stay with us for long periods of time and grow with us and reform more clients. This creates a unique compounding organic effect. The franchise remains very strong. Our client service levels are at all-time highs, and most importantly, credit continues to be exceptional.

在這種環境下，我們面臨的挑戰將是一些利潤壓縮，但不會是信貸、客戶滿意度或家庭收購。儘管存在中期利率條件，但我們的長期關注點始終不變。保持卓越的信用標準，以便我們可以專注於未來而不是過去，在我們為現有客戶提供服務並獲得新客戶時，以強大的資本水平支持特許經營增長。穩步執行我們簡單明了的模式，始終以客戶的最大利益為出發點，同時始終如一地提供卓越和差異化的服務。通過這種方式，我們獲得了長期留在我們身邊並與我們一起成長並改造更多客戶的優秀客戶。這產生了獨特的複合有機效果。特許經營權仍然非常強大。我們的客戶服務水平處於歷史最高水平，最重要的是，信用仍然非常出色。

Let me turn the call over to Mike Roffler, please.

請讓我把電話轉給 Mike Roffler。

Thank you, Jim. It was another quarter of strong growth and financial performance. This quarter's results once again demonstrate the durability of our business model and service culture and the consistency of our execution.

謝謝你，吉姆。這是另一個強勁增長和財務業績的季度。本季度的業績再次證明了我們商業模式和服務文化的持久性以及我們執行的一致性。

Let me now share a few results. Year-over-year, total loans outstanding were up 24%. Total deposits have grown 19%. Wealth management assets were down less than 1%, while the S&P was down 17% over the same period. Bob will touch on this more momentarily. Our growth, in turn, has led to strong financial performance. Year-over-year, total revenues have grown 17%. Net interest income has grown 21% and earnings per share have grown 16%. And tangible book value per share has increased more than 11%. As Jim mentioned, maintaining strong credit and capital as a fundamental part of our culture and business model. Our credit remains pristine. Nonperforming assets were only 6 basis points at quarter end. Net charge-offs were only $1 million during the quarter. For perspective, this is just a fraction of a single basis point of our $159 billion loan portfolio. We remain very well capitalized with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 8.6% at quarter end. This includes a successful common equity raise in August. Turning to interest rates for a moment. As Jim mentioned, since our last call, the Fed increased rates very rapidly. Additionally, the market's expectation for future rate hikes also increased.

現在讓我分享一些結果。未償還貸款總額同比增長 24%。存款總額增長了 19%。財富管理資產下跌不到 1%，而標準普爾指數同期下跌 17%。 Bob 稍後會談到這一點。反過來，我們的增長也帶來了強勁的財務業績。與去年同期相比，總收入增長了 17%。淨利息收入增長了 21%，每股收益增長了 16%。每股有形賬面價值增長了 11% 以上。正如吉姆所說，保持強大的信用和資本是我們文化和商業模式的基本組成部分。我們的信譽保持不變。季度末不良資產僅為 6 個基點。本季度的淨沖銷僅為 100 萬美元。從長遠來看，這只是我們 1590 億美元貸款組合中單個基點的一小部分。我們仍然資本充足，季度末的一級槓桿率為 8.6%。這包括 8 月份成功的普通股募集。暫時轉向利率。正如吉姆所說，自我們上次電話會議以來，美聯儲加息速度非常快。此外，市場對未來加息的預期也有所增加。

We have responded to the sharp rise in rates by providing clients with attractive deposit opportunities through CDs and money market accounts. While this client-centric approach puts pressure on our net interest margin in the near term, it will allow us to retain and acquire great clients who will stay with us and grow with us for many years to come. Year-over-year, our households have increased 13%. This is the strongest level of growth in 3 years. These new households are all seeds for the future. We are delighted with this continued strong household growth. Importantly, our service model continues to generate strong net interest income, which is a product of our strong loan growth. We have always viewed net interest income as a key driver of our business performance.

我們通過 CD 和貨幣市場賬戶為客戶提供有吸引力的存款機會來應對利率的急劇上升。雖然這種以客戶為中心的方法在短期內給我們的淨息差帶來了壓力，但它將使我們能夠留住並獲得優秀的客戶，這些客戶將在未來很多年與我們一起成長。與去年同期相比，我們的家庭增加了 13%。這是3年來最強勁的增長水平。這些新家庭都是未來的種子。我們對這種持續強勁的家庭增長感到高興。重要的是，我們的服務模式繼續產生強勁的淨利息收入，這是我們強勁貸款增長的產物。我們一直將淨利息收入視為我們業務表現的關鍵驅動因素。

Turning to markets. Our urban coastal markets remain healthy and attractive. As rates have increased, residential real estate prices have come down slightly as expected. Our pipeline remains robust heading into the fourth quarter. Our client service model continues to resonate with clients. Our Net Promoter Score of 79, is at its highest level ever. Given our differentiated level of service, we continue to see very attractive opportunities for growth. Overall, it was a strong quarter. Our business model is performing quite well, and we remain focused on the many opportunities in front of us.

轉向市場。我們的城市沿海市場保持健康和有吸引力。隨著利率上升，住宅房地產價格如預期略有下降。進入第四季度，我們的管道仍然強勁。我們的客戶服務模式繼續引起客戶的共鳴。我們的淨推薦值是 79，是有史以來的最高水平。鑑於我們差異化的服務水平，我們繼續看到非常有吸引力的增長機會。總體而言，這是一個強勁的季度。我們的商業模式表現良好，我們仍然專注於我們面前的許多機會。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mike Selfridge, Chief Banking Officer.

現在我將把電話轉給首席銀行官 Mike Selfridge。

Thank you, Mike. Let me provide an update on lending and funding across our business. Loan origination volume for the third quarter was very strong at $18 billion, our second best quarter ever. Our real estate secured lending remains well diversified. Single-family residential volume was robust at $7 billion. During the quarter, purchase activity accounted for 65% of single-family residential volume. Financing a home purchase is a great opportunity to demonstrate our differentiated service. And this is typically the start of a long-term relationship with First Republic. Virtually every new lending relationship also begins with a checking account.

謝謝你，邁克。讓我提供有關我們整個業務的貸款和融資的最新信息。第三季度的貸款發放量非常強勁，達到 180 億美元，是我們有史以來第二好的季度。我們的房地產抵押貸款仍然多元化。單戶住宅成交量強勁，達到 70 億美元。本季度，購買活動佔單戶住宅量的 65%。為購房融資是展示我們差異化服務的絕佳機會。這通常是與第一共和國建立長期關係的開始。幾乎每一個新的借貸關係也是從一個支票賬戶開始的。

Multi-family volume for the quarter was very strong at $2.7 billion. As a reminder, the median size of our multifamily and commercial real estate loans originated over the past 2 years, is less than $2 million with a loan-to-value ratio at origination of less than 55%. The continued strength of our markets and our clients is further demonstrated in a robust loan pipeline heading into the fourth quarter. We now expect loan growth for the full year 2022 to exceed 20% given our pipeline and year-to-date performance. Turning to credit. We continue to maintain our conservative underwriting standards. The average loan-to-value ratio for all real estate loans originated during the quarter was just 58%. Business banking also had a good quarter. Year-over-year business deposits were up 19%. Business deposits represented 63% of total deposits at quarter end. Business loans and line commitments were up 15% year-over-year. The utilization rate on capital call lines of credit decreased to approximately 32% during the quarter, reflecting the general slowdown in the private equity and venture capital sectors. Importantly, our capital call commitments increased during the quarter as we continue to acquire new clients.

本季度的多戶家庭交易量非常強勁，達到 27 億美元。提醒一下，我們過去 2 年發起的多戶家庭和商業房地產貸款的中位數規模不到 200 萬美元，發起時的貸款與價值比率低於 55%。進入第四季度的強勁貸款渠道進一步證明了我們市場和客戶的持續實力。鑑於我們的管道和年初至今的表現，我們現在預計 2022 年全年的貸款增長將超過 20%。轉向信貸。我們繼續維持保守的承保標準。本季度發放的所有房地產貸款的平均貸款與價值比率僅為 58%。商業銀行業務也有一個不錯的季度。商業存款同比增長 19%。商業存款佔季度末總存款的 63%。商業貸款和額度承諾同比增長 15%。本季度資本調用信貸額度的使用率下降至約 32%，反映了私募股權和風險投資領域的普遍放緩。重要的是，隨著我們繼續獲得新客戶，我們的資本調用承諾在本季度有所增加。

Turning to funding. We are quite pleased that deposits were up 19% year-over-year and more than 4% quarter-over-quarter. Deposits continue to represent over 90% of our total funding base at quarter end. Our deposit base remains well diversified. Checking represented 64% of total deposits at quarter end, CDs accounted for 9% of total deposits at quarter end.

轉向資金。我們很高興存款同比增長 19%，環比增長超過 4%。在季度末，存款繼續占我們總資金基礎的 90% 以上。我們的存款基礎仍然多元化。支票占季度末總存款的 64%，CD 佔季度末總存款的 9%。

In a rising rate environment, we typically see CDs increase as a percentage of total deposits. As recently as 2019 year-end, CDs accounted for 15% of total deposits. Let me take a moment to talk about our preferred banking offices. This network of over 80 offices provides an important service delivery point for clients, helping to further drive our exceptional Net Promoter Score and gather deposits. Our offices on average, had over $720 million in deposits at quarter end.

在利率上升的環境中，我們通常會看到 CD 佔總存款的百分比增加。就在 2019 年底，CD 佔存款總額的 15%。讓我花點時間談談我們首選的銀行辦事處。這個由 80 多個辦事處組成的網絡為客戶提供了一個重要的服務交付點，有助於進一步提高我們卓越的淨推薦值並收集存款。我們的辦公室在季度末平均有超過 7.2 億美元的存款。

Over the next year, we expect to continue to open new offices to deepen our presence in our existing footprint. Our service model continues to perform well. Our consistent client-driven approach is driving safe, stable organic growth.

在接下來的一年裡，我們預計將繼續開設新辦事處，以加深我們在現有業務中的影響力。我們的服務模式繼續表現良好。我們一貫以客戶為導向的方法正在推動安全、穩定的有機增長。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bob Thornton, President of Private Wealth Management.

現在我想把電話轉給私人財富管理總裁 Bob Thornton。

Thank you, Mike. Our wealth management model continues to perform very well. Year-to-date, total wealth management revenues are up over 20%. In addition to investment management fees, this includes strong growth in fees from brokerage, trust, insurance, and foreign exchange services. Fees from these latter services help diversify our wealth management revenue and can help mitigate the impact of market decline on asset-based investment management fees during market corrections.

謝謝你，邁克。我們的財富管理模式繼續表現良好。年初至今，財富管理總收入增長超過 20%。除了投資管理費用，這還包括經紀、信託、保險和外匯服務費用的強勁增長。後者服務的費用有助於分散我們的財富管理收入，並有助於減輕市場調整期間市場下跌對基於資產的投資管理費用的影響。

Despite the current market volatility that Mike mentioned, we continue to see strong net client inflows, particularly within our investment management business. Year-to-date, Investment Management net client inflows were up 32% versus last year. As we have noted before, our holistic approach to banking and wealth management is even more highly valued by clients during times of market volatility. We take these opportunities to engage our clients to understand their banking and wealth needs as market conditions change.

儘管邁克提到了當前的市場波動，但我們繼續看到強勁的淨客戶流入，尤其是在我們的投資管理業務中。年初至今，投資管理的淨客戶流入比去年增長了 32%。正如我們之前所指出的，在市場波動時期，我們對銀行和財富管理的整體方法更加受到客戶的高度重視。隨著市場條件的變化，我們利用這些機會讓我們的客戶了解他們的銀行業務和財富需求。

Our wealth management business continues to be a meaningful contributor to the bank's deposits through sweep balances and banking relationships. Our integrated banking and wealth management model also continues to make First Republic a very attractive destination for successful wealth professionals. Since our last call, we welcomed 4 new wealth management teams to First Republic. This brings the total to 8 teams hired so far this year, and we have additional hires planned for the fourth quarter. Overall, our Wealth Management business continues to execute very well. Times like these are a great opportunity to demonstrate our exceptional service, deepen existing relationships and acquired new households.

我們的財富管理業務通過清掃餘額和銀行關係繼續為銀行存款做出有意義的貢獻。我們的綜合銀行和財富管理模式也繼續使 First Republic 成為成功的財富專業人士非常有吸引力的目的地。自上次電話會議以來，我們迎來了 4 個新的財富管理團隊加入第一共和國。這使今年迄今為止僱用的團隊總數達到了 8 個，我們計劃在第四季度招聘更多人。總體而言，我們的財富管理業務繼續表現良好。像這樣的時代是展示我們卓越服務、加深現有關係和獲得新家庭的絕佳機會。

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Olga Tsokova, Acting Chief Financial Officer.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給代理首席財務官 Olga Tsokova。

Thank you, Bob. We continue to operate in a safe and sound manner with a continued focus on credit, capital and liquidity. Our credit quality remains excellent. Year-to-date, our provision for credit losses was $77 million. Net charge-offs for the same period were only $2 million. Our provision reflects our continued strong loan growth. Our capital position remains very strong. At quarter end, our Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.6%.

謝謝你，鮑勃。我們繼續以安全穩健的方式運營，並繼續關注信貸、資本和流動性。我們的信用質量仍然很好。年初至今，我們的信用損失準備金為 7700 萬美元。同期的淨沖銷僅為 200 萬美元。我們的撥備反映了我們持續強勁的貸款增長。我們的資本狀況仍然非常強勁。在季度末，我們的一級槓桿率為 8.6%。

As Mike mentioned, this included the benefit from a common equity raise completed during the third quarter. Liquidity also remains very strong. High-quality liquid assets were 13.7% of average total assets in the third quarter. Throughout the bank's history, net interest income has been a primary driver of our financial results. This is true even during challenging rate environment. Net interest income for the third quarter was up a strong 21% year-over-year. This was driven by robust growth in earning assets.

正如邁克所提到的，這包括第三季度完成的普通股募集帶來的收益。流動性也仍然非常強勁。第三季度優質流動資產占平均總資產的13.7%。縱觀銀行的歷史，淨利息收入一直是我們財務業績的主要驅動力。即使在具有挑戰性的利率環境中也是如此。第三季度的淨利息收入同比強勁增長 21%。這是由盈利資產的強勁增長推動的。

Our net interest margin was 2.71% for the third quarter. This quarter's NIM reflects an increase in funding costs following two 75 basis point rate hikes during the quarter. Year-to-date, our net interest margin was 2.73%. Given the increase in funding costs following the first recent rate hikes and additional rate hikes expected this year, we now expect to be at the lower end of our guided net interest margin range of 2.65% to 2.75% for the full year of 2022. This assumes a Fed funds rate of 4.5% at year-end, which is in line with the current market view.

我們第三季度的淨息差為 2.71%。本季度的 NIM 反映了本季度兩次加息 75 個基點後融資成本的增加。年初至今，我們的淨息差為 2.73%。鑑於近期首次加息後融資成本增加以及預計今年將進一步加息，我們現在預計 2022 年全年淨息差將處於 2.65% 至 2.75% 的指導範圍的下限。這假設年底聯邦基金利率為 4.5%，這與當前市場觀點一致。

Turning to expenses. We continue to invest in client service and regulatory infrastructure to support our growth. Our efficiency ratio was 60.3% for the third quarter and 60.9% year-to-date. We currently expect to be at the lower end of our efficiency ratio range of 62% to 64% for the full year 2022.

轉向開支。我們將繼續投資於客戶服務和監管基礎設施，以支持我們的發展。我們第三季度的效率為 60.3%，今年迄今為 60.9%。我們目前預計 2022 年全年的效率比率範圍將處於 62% 至 64% 的低端。

Our effective tax rate was 21.6% in for the third quarter. We continue to expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 22% to 24% for the full year 2022. Overall, we continue to deliver strong financial performance, which reflects the stability and consistency of our model.

我們第三季度的有效稅率為 21.6%。我們繼續預計 2022 年全年的有效稅率將在 22% 至 24% 之間。總體而言，我們繼續提供強勁的財務業績，這反映了我們模型的穩定性和一致性。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Mike Roffler.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Mike Roffler。

Thank you, Jim, Mike, Bob and Olga. For over 37 years, First Republic's business model has been focused on providing extraordinary client service while maintaining conservative credit and strong capital. This model has been successful in all environments. All of our colleagues at First Republic remain completely focused on serving clients each and everyday. Now we would be happy to take your questions.

謝謝你，吉姆、邁克、鮑勃和奧爾加。 37 多年來，First Republic 的商業模式一直專注於提供卓越的客戶服務，同時保持保守的信用和雄厚的資本。該模型在所有環境中都取得了成功。我們在 First Republic 的所有同事每天都完全專注於為客戶服務。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I wanted to start -- so with mortgage rates moving up very dramatically this year, the initial concern on your stock was that loan growth would slow, right? With that said, you're now 3/4 in a row, you've done over basically 20%-ish growth. So that's not a concern anymore. But the concern is now that either one: there won't be enough deposit funding in 2023 to fund strong loan growth, right, given what's going on with QT. And if there is enough deposit funding, that your NIM will just compress materially trying to fund that loan growth, right? We see the stock down over 10% right now. So my question is, given the yield curve, which is likely to invert even more in coming months, one, could you see a scenario where you would need to slow loan growth? And two, irrespective really of that answer, could you walk us through your NIM expectations for 2023? And how bad could it get if this forward curve does play out?

我想開始 - 所以隨著今年抵押貸款利率急劇上升，你的股票最初擔心的是貸款增長會放緩，對嗎？話雖如此，你現在已經連續增長了 3/4，基本上已經完成了 20% 以上的增長。所以這不再是一個問題。但現在的擔憂是其中之一：考慮到 QT 的情況，到 2023 年將沒有足夠的存款資金來支持強勁的貸款增長。如果有足夠的存款資金，那麼您的 NIM 只會大幅壓縮以資助貸款增長，對嗎？我們現在看到該股下跌超過 10%。所以我的問題是，鑑於收益率曲線可能會在未來幾個月內進一步倒掛，你能否看到需要放緩貸款增長的情況？第二，不管這個答案如何，你能告訴我們你對 2023 年 NIM 的期望嗎？如果這條正向曲線真的出現，情況會有多糟糕？

Thanks for the question, Steve. On your first part of that, I think you're right. I mean, with rates rising, we've continued to grow our loan portfolio. And if I stand back from that, we've always been focused on service first and foremost, and that is what has driven loan growth, frankly, in any environment. When you saw 2016 to '18, the last time rates rose, we grew the portfolio at mid-teens to high teens rate year after year. We continue to price lending at a pricing because we have A credit. And one of the hallmarks of First Republic for 37 years has been pristine credit through any cycle. And right now, that's very important. And as we look to 2023, the safety and stability of the bank's loan portfolio is absolutely critical and we continue to serve clients each and every day. And that's always been our objective, and that has put some pressure on the margin, as we talked about in the prepared remarks because we are growing the loan portfolio and then funding it a little bit differently than we had in the past couple of years, given the market forces you talk about, right?

謝謝你的問題，史蒂夫。在你的第一部分，我認為你是對的。我的意思是，隨著利率的上升，我們的貸款組合繼續增長。如果我不考慮這一點，我們始終將服務放在首位，坦率地說，這就是在任何環境下推動貸款增長的原因。當您看到 2016 年至 18 年（上一次利率上漲）時，我們的投資組合年復一年地以青少年中期增長至青少年高利率。我們繼續以定價定價貸款，因為我們有 A 信用。第一共和國 37 年來的標誌之一就是在任何週期中的原始信用。現在，這非常重要。展望 2023 年，銀行貸款組合的安全性和穩定性絕對至關重要，我們將繼續每天為客戶服務。這一直是我們的目標，這給利潤率帶來了一些壓力，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，因為我們正在擴大貸款組合，然後為它提供資金，與過去幾年有所不同，考慮到你所說的市場力量，對吧？

The Fed has aggressively raise rates. They've begun quantitative tightening, which in September was the first month at full capacity. And so you are -- there is going to be some pressure on the margin here as we go into the fourth quarter and the early part of next year. But the Fed will eventually get to a place where they've been successful in reducing inflation. And if you look to the other side of that hill, for example, the bank will be mid-teens percentage larger, maybe a little bit more, will be safe and have come through credit very well. And we'll be ready to go from there with a much bigger client household base because we continue to acquire clients.

美聯儲積極加息。他們已經開始量化緊縮，9 月是滿負荷運轉的第一個月。所以你是 - 隨著我們進入第四季度和明年年初，這裡的利潤率將會面臨一些壓力。但美聯儲最終將達到他們成功降低通脹的水平。例如，如果你看看那座小山的另一邊，銀行的規模會大幾十倍，也許會多一點，這將是安全的，並且已經很好地通過了信貸。我們將準備好從那裡開始擁有更大的客戶家庭基礎，因為我們會繼續獲得客戶。

Okay. Mike, I know you guys are looking past the hill or to the hill ahead but can you help frame for us at the margin where you think the NIM could trend to over the near term, like how bad we get?

好的。邁克，我知道你們正在越過山丘或前方的山丘，但您能否幫助我們在您認為 NIM 在短期內可能趨於的邊緣為我們構建框架，例如我們會變得多糟糕？

Sure. As Olga said, we think we're going to be at the lower end of our annual guidance range for this year, right, which means the fourth quarter is going to come in a little bit below that guidance range and that's where you'll sort of start 2023. After that, it depends on when does the Fed stop, right? Are they successful in getting inflation down, and could it stop in the first quarter, for example. Loan rates are starting to come up a little bit and they're starting to catch up, which is a positive. But the next couple of quarters, are likely to be a little bit below the bottom end of our current range as we start into 2023.

當然。正如奧爾加所說，我們認為我們今年將處於年度指導範圍的下限，對，這意味著第四季度將略低於該指導範圍，這就是你將有點像 2023 年開始。在那之後，這取決於美聯儲什麼時候停止，對吧？他們是否成功地降低了通貨膨脹率，例如，它是否會在第一季度停止。貸款利率開始略有上升，並且開始迎頭趕上，這是一個積極的方面。但隨著我們進入 2023 年，接下來的幾個季度可能會略低於我們當前區間的下限。

Okay. That's helpful. In terms of the incremental NIM, I speak to investors, a lot of them point to the CD promotions, right, which many of them actually see and scratch their heads, how your NIM is not going much lower, right? Would you see a 3% or 3% plus CD promotion. So at the margin, can you help us understand, you said loan yields are coming up a bit. Where are current loan yields today? And how does that compare to your current funding cost?

好的。這很有幫助。關於增量NIM，我跟投資人談過，很多人都指向CD促銷，對，他們中的許多人實際上看到並摸不著頭腦，你的NIM怎麼不會降低很多，對吧？你會看到 3% 或 3% 加 CD 促銷嗎？因此，在保證金方面，您能否幫助我們理解，您說貸款收益率正在上升。目前的貸款收益率在哪裡？這與您目前的資金成本相比如何？

Steve, it's Mike Selfridge. I'll talk on the current lending yields we're getting. And so looking more currently, single-families coming in around 480 basis points multifamily about 550. Commercial real estate, about 490 basis points. So you add it all up for real estate, it's about 490 basis points business banking. As you know, capital call lending is the largest segment of that is still maintained about a prime minus 75 to 100 basis points yield, so call it 525 to 550.

史蒂夫，我是邁克塞爾弗里奇。我將談談我們目前獲得的貸款收益率。所以目前來看，單戶住宅約480個基點，多戶型約550個。商業地產，約490個基點。所以你把它加起來是房地產，大約是 490 個基點的商業銀行業務。如您所知，資本催繳貸款是其中最大的部分，仍然維持在負 75 至 100 個基點的收益率左右，因此稱其為 525 至 550。

Steve, I might just add, CDs are only 9% of the total. So it's a very -- and I think maybe we started the year 4% or 5%. So it's only on the incremental that you're talking about that challenge and the pressure. And with our overall funding cost at just 55 at the end of the quarter, yes, the incremental business is less than the current margin, but it's not as pronounced just because CDs are a much smaller proportion of the total at this point in time.

史蒂夫，我可以補充一下，CD 只佔總數的 9%。所以這是一個非常 - 我想我們今年開始可能是 4% 或 5%。因此，您僅在增量上談論挑戰和壓力。在本季度末，我們的總體融資成本僅為 55，是的，增量業務低於當前的利潤率，但它並不那麼明顯，因為此時 CD 佔總數的比例要小得多。

Okay. And then finally, so Mike Roffler, if we end up at a place where the NIM is under a pretty nice pressure over the next couple of quarters, how should we think about the efficiency ratio? I mean, does this just roll through and hit the revenue line? Or are there offsets that you're planning on the expense side to keep the efficiency ratio, I don't know if 60% to 62% is a good range because we've been at 60% or if you think we go back to 62% to 64%, but if you could flesh that out, that would be great?

好的。最後，邁克·羅夫勒，如果我們最終在接下來的幾個季度中 NIM 承受著相當大的壓力，我們應該如何考慮效率比？我的意思是，這只是滾動並達到收入線嗎？或者您是否計劃在費用方面進行補償以保持效率比，我不知道 60% 到 62% 是否是一個好的範圍，因為我們一直處於 60% 或者您是否認為我們回到62% 到 64%，但如果你能把它充實起來，那就太好了？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Steven. Having been here for about 13 years, and in my prior CFO role, both obviously sort of the funding and liquidity and CDs have been deep into that many years. And also a couple of times when the margin has compressed a little bit through yield curve inversions, et cetera. We've had to look at where we can make some adjustments to our expense base, and we would absolutely do that as we go forward.

是的。不，謝謝你的問題，史蒂文。在這里工作了大約 13 年，在我之前擔任首席財務官的職位上，顯然資金、流動性和 CD 都已經深入了這麼多年。還有幾次，由於收益率曲線倒掛等原因，保證金略有壓縮。我們必須考慮在哪裡可以對我們的費用基礎進行一些調整，並且在我們前進的過程中我們絕對會這樣做。

One thing I'd now is similar to other banks that have released today, checking balances have come down a bit in the industry overall, a significant part of our compensation is tied to growth in checking, lending activity, assets under management, fee revenues. So as there's some change there or migration there, there is a big portion that's variable compensation. And so that also is why you saw a pretty limited growth in expenses this quarter is reflective of that. So there are some, what I'm going to call, natural levers that occur just from the business model and the way we're structured.

我現在想的一件事與今天發布的其他銀行類似，整個行業的支票餘額有所下降，我們薪酬的很大一部分與支票、貸款活動、管理資產、費用收入的增長有關.因此，由於那裡發生了一些變化或遷移，其中很大一部分是可變補償。因此，這也是為什麼您看到本季度支出增長非常有限的原因，這反映了這一點。因此，有一些，我將稱之為，僅來自商業模式和我們的結構方式的自然槓桿。

And then second, the team has an unbelievable ability to come together to prioritize and make adjustments as necessary to adapt to the environment that we're in, and we fully expect that to happen. And so the last thing I'll close with, sorry, this is a ratio. And when the margin is under pressure, that does tip us a little bit higher so the 60% is probably not a good launch point for the fourth quarter and for the next year, I would say.

其次，團隊具有令人難以置信的能力，可以團結起來確定優先級並根據需要進行調整以適應我們所處的環境，我們完全期望這種情況會發生。所以我要結束的最後一件事，對不起，這是一個比率。當利潤率面臨壓力時，這確實會讓我們稍微高一點，所以我想說，對於第四季度和明年來說，60% 可能不是一個好的啟動點。

The next question comes from Chris McGratty of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Mike, I just want to follow up on the deposit cost for a moment. By my math, your beta in the quarter was around 40%. Can you just remind us what your assumptions are for the full cycle? And how might that beta change for Q4?

邁克，我只想關註一下押金費用。根據我的數學計算，您在本季度的測試版約為 40%。您能否提醒我們您對整個週期的假設是什麼？第四季度的測試版可能會如何變化？

Chris, this is Olga. So the assumption for the beta so far, we are about 12%, but we believe for this cycle will be in high 20s which is higher than we experienced in the last cycle that we said we were like 19%, 20%, and this was given the velocity of Fed fund rate hikes. So we expect the beta to be higher this cycle. And for -- it's not other assumptions. We expect the Fed fund rate at the end of the year be around 4.5%, which includes 75 basis points trade hike in November, an additional 50 basis points in December. And importantly, when we look at our -- we talk about the pressure on margin, but what's important, even that doesn't change our guided NIM range for full year 2022, which reflects the consistency and stability of our model. Although now we expect that rate within the range, but on the lower end of the range?

克里斯，這是奧爾加。所以到目前為止，我們對 beta 的假設約為 12%，但我們相信這個週期將處於 20 年代的高位，這高於我們在上一個週期中所經歷的，我們說我們是 19%、20%，而這考慮到聯邦基金加息的速度。所以我們預計這個週期的貝塔值會更高。而對於 - 這不是其他假設。我們預計年底聯邦基金利率在 4.5% 左右，其中包括 11 月貿易加息 75 個基點，12 月再加息 50 個基點。重要的是，當我們看到我們的 - 我們談論利潤率壓力時，但重要的是，即使這不會改變我們 2022 年全年的 NIM 指導範圍，這反映了我們模型的一致性和穩定性。雖然現在我們預計該比率在該範圍內，但在該範圍的下限？

Chris, I'd just say your beta refer, I'm not sure how it's calculated. But when we look at the beta, we look at sort of all deposits, including the zero cost checking the noninterest accounts. So that's why we -- the 12% is where we're at today.

克里斯，我只想說你的 beta 參考，我不確定它是如何計算的。但是當我們查看 beta 時，我們會查看所有存款，包括檢查非利息賬戶的零成本。所以這就是為什麼我們 - 12% 是我們今天所處的位置。

Yes. I was doing just interest-bearing, but I appreciate that. Maybe a follow-up on the asset side, does the asset beta accelerate as you get further into the cycle. I know there's a lag, given the fixed rate piece of the book. But just trying to get a sense of repricing, whether that starts to catch up a little bit more in the next 6 months?

是的。我做的只是生息，但我很感激。也許是資產方面的後續行動，隨著您進一步進入周期，資產 beta 是否會加速。鑑於本書的固定利率部分，我知道存在滯後。但只是想獲得一種重新定價的感覺，在接下來的 6 個月內是否會開始趕上一點點？

It's Mike Selfridge. The beta -- we've got about 60 basis points if you look at originations from Q2 to Q3, and we get a little bit. We get more on the prime based but it's still competitive out there. And so we go and grow new households and look for, as Mike said, a clients with a pricing.

是邁克·塞爾弗里奇。貝塔——如果你看一下從第二季度到第三季度的起源，我們有大約 60 個基點，我們得到了一點點。我們在主要基礎上獲得了更多，但它仍然具有競爭力。因此，正如邁克所說，我們去發展新家庭並尋找有定價的客戶。

Okay. And if I could just sneak one in. The last one, just the mix of deposits is getting a lot of attention, obviously, for obvious reasons. How should we think about just the mix of noninterest-bearing deposits if the forward curve plays out? Like how much more outflow risk or migration risk you do presume to be in that in your book?

好的。如果我可以偷偷溜進去。最後一個，只是存款的混合，顯然，出於顯而易見的原因，引起了很多關注。如果遠期曲線出現，我們應該如何考慮非計息存款的組合？就像你在書中假設的外流風險或遷移風險還有多少？

Chris, we were obviously pleased to have checking balances remain 70% of more deposits for many quarters. And I think for the past 9 years, we've been over 50% checking balances. And so it's been a consistently high proportion of our deposit levels. So it probably could come down a little bit from here. But given the amount of working capital for both businesses and consumers. It's probably not a lot lower, but probably a little bit lower from here.

克里斯，我們顯然很高興支票餘額在多個季度中仍佔存款總額的 70%。我認為在過去的 9 年裡，我們檢查餘額的比例超過了 50%。所以它一直是我們存款水平的高比例。所以它可能會從這裡下降一點。但考慮到企業和消費者的營運資金數額。它可能不會低很多，但可能比這裡低一點。

The next question comes from Manan Gosalia of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I just wanted to dig in a little bit on the NIM side. I appreciate the forward guidance given where the Fed fund is going. Can you help us with the puts and takes on the funding side. First, if you have it, the spot deposit rates on September 30? And then second, just in general, how are you thinking about the funding avenues, right, whether it's CDs or FHLB or wholesale funding, what do you expect to do from here given the strong loan growth that you're getting? And what sort of loan to deposit ratio would you be comfortable running at, just given where loan growth is right now?

我只是想深入挖掘一下 NIM 方面。我很欣賞聯邦基金的前瞻指引。你能幫我們處理看跌期權和融資方面的問題嗎？首先，如果有的話，9月30日的即期存款利率？其次，總的來說，您如何看待融資途徑，對，無論是 CD、FHLB 還是批發融資，鑑於您獲得的強勁貸款增長，您希望從這裡做什麼？考慮到目前的貸款增長情況，你會願意以什麼樣的貸款與存款比率運行？

Manan, this is Olga. For spot rate on deposits as of September 30, we were at 76 basis points. And this is really the reflection of our client-centric model where we provide attractive deposit opportunities for our clients. And that will continue to diversify our deposit base and funding base. So you've seen the increase in CDs, but it's still a relatively low. It's higher than we had over the last few years, but it's still about 9% and historically we've been in mid-teens levels. And even if we look at longer-term back, it's even higher than this. So it continued to diversify the funding base. We continue to tap into FHLB where we have a lot of capacity. But even historically, FHLB levels of finding a relatively lower compared to historical where we've been.

馬南，這是奧爾加。截至 9 月 30 日的存款即期利率為 76 個基點。這確實反映了我們以客戶為中心的模式，我們為客戶提供有吸引力的存款機會。這將繼續使我們的存款基礎和資金基礎多樣化。所以你已經看到CD的增加，但它仍然相對較低。它比我們過去幾年的水平要高，但仍然約為 9%，從歷史上看，我們一直處於十幾歲的水平。即使我們從長遠來看，它甚至比這更高。因此，它繼續使資金基礎多樣化。我們繼續利用我們擁有大量能力的 FHLB。但即使從歷史上看，與我們所經歷的歷史相比，FHLB 的水平也相對較低。

Maybe I'll just add a little bit. Thank you for that, Olga. Our deposits funding has been 90% of our total funding. And as Olga mentioned, CDs have become an important strategy in terms of when rates rise this fast. If you recall, as Mike Selfridge mentioned earlier, our 80 retail offices are a fantastic service point for our clients and also have an ability with which to engage with clients, especially in times like this when CDs become much more important. As Olga mentioned, we've been in the mid-teens before. And if we go back to when I joined the bank, we were well above that in 2010. So we've been here at a point where we've got CDs as a meaningful part of our deposit base. And that would always be the first choice as opposed to wholesale. We used the FHLB as an important tool. But if you can do client acquisition and deepening of relationships, that's always what we would choose first.

也許我會補充一點。謝謝你，奧爾加。我們的存款資金已佔總資金的 90%。正如奧爾加所提到的，就利率上漲如此之快而言，CD 已成為一項重要策略。如果您還記得，正如 Mike Selfridge 之前提到的那樣，我們的 80 個零售辦事處是我們客戶的絕佳服務點，並且還具有與客戶互動的能力，尤其是在這種 CD 變得更加重要的時代。正如奧爾加所提到的，我們之前一直在十幾歲。如果我們回到我加入銀行的時候，我們在 2010 年的水平遠遠高於這個水平。所以我們已經到了這樣一個時刻，我們將 CD 作為我們存款基礎的重要組成部分。與批發相比，這始終是首選。我們使用 FHLB 作為重要工具。但如果你能做客戶獲取和加深關係，那總是我們首先會選擇的。

Got it. So it sounds like CDs over FHLB. Got it. Okay. And then just maybe on the asset side, again, it looks like securities actually grew on a Q-on-Q basis. Can you help us with what the runoff is or what the -- how much cash is generated through securities pay down each quarter that you might be willing to use to fund loan growth?

知道了。所以聽起來像是 FHLB 上的 CD。知道了。好的。然後可能只是在資產方面，看起來證券實際上是在 Q-on-Q 的基礎上增長的。您能否幫助我們了解徑流是什麼？每個季度通過證券支付產生的現金有多少，您可能願意用來為貸款增長提供資金？

The runoff has been pretty light. It's probably between sort of $300 million and $500 million a quarter that we would reinvest either in lending opportunities or in the securities portfolio.

徑流很輕。每季度我們將再投資於貸款機會或證券投資組合的資金可能在 3 億至 5 億美元之間。

Next question comes from Bill Carcache of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Mike Roffler, following up on your NIM comments. If we assume that the Fed hikes and holds throughout 2023, can you frame maybe add anything to your earlier NIM comments? And I think we're getting lots of questions, I think, just around where ultimately NIM would settle under that scenario?

Mike Roffler，跟進您的 NIM 評論。如果我們假設美聯儲在 2023 年全年加息並維持利率不變，您能否為您之前的 NIM 評論添加任何內容？而且我認為我們收到了很多問題，我認為，就在這種情況下，NIM 最終會在哪裡解決？

Yes. Thank you for that, Bill. I think it's a good question because they'll get to a point where they do stop, pause, possibly even reduce. And at that point, you'll continue to have a bit of an uptick in your asset yields and a leveling off of your funding costs. And that's where you should see a little bit of expansion start to grow upwards at that point when the Fed stops. And if they reduce, you probably see a little bit faster. But it's this period of the rapid rise where you see a little bit of the compression, but you're right, 2 quarters from now, 3 quarters from now, when they're done, given the nature of the CD portfolio that we've talked about, it is a bit of a short-term issue and a short-term challenge because the Fed will -- they will get to a successful point in this battle. And at that point, it will get better from there.

是的。謝謝你，比爾。我認為這是一個很好的問題，因為它們會達到停止、暫停甚至可能減少的程度。屆時，您的資產收益率將繼續略有上升，資金成本將趨於平穩。這就是當美聯儲停止時你應該看到一點點擴張開始向上增長的地方。如果它們減少，您可能會看到更快一點。但正是在這個快速上升的時期，你會看到一些壓縮，但你是對的，從現在起 2 個季度，從現在起 3 個季度，當它們完成時，考慮到我們 CD 組合的性質我們已經談到，這是一個短期問題和短期挑戰，因為美聯儲將——他們將在這場戰鬥中取得成功。到那時，它會從那裡變得更好。

Understood. And following up on your commentary around funding sources, can you remind us how much you have in off-balance sheet funds that potentially you'd be able to bring back on balance sheet? And what some of the dynamics are around that, what that would entail?

明白了。跟進您對資金來源的評論，您能否提醒我們您有多少表外資金可以帶回資產負債表？圍繞它的一些動態是什麼，這將意味著什麼？

Bill, we have about $7 billion of balance sheet deposits, which represents about 4% of total deposits, which can be another source of bringing it on balance sheet.

比爾，我們有大約 70 億美元的資產負債表存款，約佔總存款的 4%，這可以成為將其納入資產負債表的另一個來源。

Okay. And is there any scenario where you'd envision selling held-to-maturity securities for liquidity purposes?

好的。您是否會設想出於流動性目的出售持有至到期的證券？

No. This -- we -- no.

不，這——我們——不。

Okay. Fair. And final question on your mix of debt relative to your overall funding, that's still well below 4Q '19. Is it reasonable to expect that's going to gradually remix back to pre-COVID levels?

好的。公平的。最後一個關於你的債務組合相對於你的整體資金的問題，仍然遠低於 19 年第四季度。期望這種情況會逐漸恢復到 COVID 之前的水平是否合理？

Which mix of funding back to pre-COVID?

哪種資金組合可以回到 COVID 之前？

Just your debt, overall debt, essentially any non-deposits?

只是你的債務，整體債務，基本上任何非存款？

It could go a little bit higher from here. We're very attuned to FHLB versus client. And as I said a little bit earlier, we would always choose the client first. And I think that would be our focus, first and foremost. But we do have much capacity for FHLB for sure.

它可以從這裡走高一點。我們非常適應 FHLB 與客戶的對比。正如我之前所說，我們總是首先選擇客戶。我認為這首先是我們的重點。但我們確實有足夠的 FHLB 容量。

Does the noninterest-bearing deposit mix revert to pre-COVID levels?

無息存款組合是否恢復到 COVID 之前的水平？

So I think I mentioned this before. Checking is 64% of deposits, which includes both noninterest and very nominal interest we pay on checking, could trend a little bit lower from here, but we feel like probably not a lot given the working capital needs of our clients.

所以我想我之前提到過這個。支票占存款的 64%，包括我們在支票上支付的非利息和非常名義的利息，從這裡開始可能會稍微低一些，但考慮到客戶的營運資金需求，我們覺得可能不會很多。

The next question is from Andrew Liesch of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Andrew Liesch。

So I hear what you're saying on the margin guide and the efficiency ratio also being a function of that. But even to get to that low end of the range, that implies a pretty weak step-up in expenses here this quarter. I guess, what would be causing that?

所以我聽到你在保證金指南上所說的，效率比也是它的一個函數。但即使達到該範圍的低端，這也意味著本季度的支出增長相當微弱。我想，這會是什麼原因造成的？

No, I think it's more the revenue side that has a little bit of a challenge from the margin compression we talked about versus the expenses. We -- like I mentioned earlier, there is a bit of a revenue variable-based compensation that will be tied to checking in particular. So I think it's more about the ratio and where the margin drives versus our total spend level, which our expense growth rate is actually on a sequential basis, slower than it has been.

不，我認為更多的是收入方面，我們談到的利潤率壓縮與費用相比有一點挑戰。我們 - 就像我之前提到的那樣，有一些基於收入變量的補償將特別與檢查相關聯。所以我認為這更多的是關於比率和利潤率與我們的總支出水平相比，我們的費用增長率實際上是連續的，比以前慢。

Got it. All right. That's helpful. And then part of the loan growth this year has been driven by multifamily. I'm just curious, what are you seeing in that business that has driven this growth of the design to grow this portfolio?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。今年的部分貸款增長是由多戶家庭推動的。我只是好奇，您在推動設計增長以擴大該產品組合的業務中看到了什麼？

I would say, first of all, opportunity with existing clients that drives a little more than half of that business. And it's been a more strong performing asset class. So the -- when you look at things like occupancies in the mid-90s rents maybe have plateaued coming off a little bit, but it's performing quite well, and we are there to serve the needs of our clients. So we're just taking care of clients one at a time.

我想說，首先，現有客戶的機會推動了該業務的一半以上。它是一個表現更強勁的資產類別。因此，當您查看 90 年代中期的入住率等情況時，租金可能已經趨於平穩，但表現相當不錯，我們在那裡滿足客戶的需求。所以我們一次只照顧一個客戶。

The next question is from Terry McEvoy of Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Terry McEvoy。

Maybe first question, on the topic of acquiring households that Mike mentioned earlier, could you just help me understand, I get a sense of offense versus defense in the third quarter within that CD growth? Or is it more forward-looking given that new 5-month product that I think you called the ATM rebate checking that is specifically for new customers?

也許第一個問題，關於邁克之前提到的獲得家庭的話題，你能不能幫我理解一下，我在第三季度的 CD 增長中獲得了攻防的感覺？還是考慮到我認為您稱之為專門針對新客戶的 ATM 回扣檢查的新 5 個月產品，它是否更具前瞻性？

Terry, thanks for the question. We actually play a bit of both, right? One is it's a great time to acquire clients in a period where our relationship managers, wealth managers are leaning into discussions with prospects, and then we're also deepening relationships. And so the business model, if we stand back has always been about acquiring households for the long term. And in periods of uncertainty like now, it's as good of opportunity as any because of the strength of our colleagues and the way they take great care of clients and the reputation the bank has.

特里，謝謝你的問題。我們實際上都玩了一點，對吧？一個是在我們的客戶經理、財富經理傾向於與潛在客戶進行討論的時期，這是獲取客戶的好時機，然後我們也在深化關係。因此，如果我們退後一步，商業模式一直是關於長期收購家庭。在像現在這樣的不確定時期，由於我們同事的實力以及他們對客戶的悉心照顧以及銀行的聲譽，這與任何機會一樣好。

And so some of the things we're doing, like you mentioned, those are definitely attracting people to the bank along with what they hear from a service perspective of how well our reputation is in the communities we serve.

所以我們正在做的一些事情，就像你提到的那樣，這些肯定會吸引人們加入銀行，以及他們從服務的角度聽到我們在我們所服務的社區中的聲譽如何。

And then on -- as a follow-up, just how are these high-yield online savings accounts coming up in your discussions with the clients? And I ask given Apple's announcement yesterday that they're offering or will be offering interest-bearing deposit products.

然後 - 作為後續行動，這些高收益的在線儲蓄賬戶在您與客戶的討論中是如何出現的？鑑於蘋果昨天宣布他們正在提供或將提供有息存款產品，我問這個問題。

It's not a material competitor in our mind. And again, our lower serving clients that value the relationship. And as Mike said, we're being competitive on both lending and deposits, but we're acquiring new households at a nice clip.

它不是我們心目中的物質競爭對手。再一次，我們重視這種關係的服務水平較低的客戶。正如邁克所說，我們在貸款和存款方面都具有競爭力，但我們正在以不錯的速度獲得新家庭。

The next question comes from Tim Coffey of Janney Montgomery.

下一個問題來自 Janney Montgomery 的 Tim Coffey。

First question I had is on the -- do you have a -- can you provide some color on your thoughts on tangible common equity in relation to both how the balance sheet is expected to grow this next year and the forward rate curve?

我的第一個問題是——你有沒有——你能否就你對有形普通股的看法提供一些色彩，與明年資產負債表的預期增長方式和遠期利率曲線有關嗎？

Thanks, Tim. We're really pleased that in August, we were able to raise capital opportunistically like we have done over many years. And growing tangible book value per share at 11% continues to support our balance sheet growth and it supports 2023s growth that will be coming as a result of service. So we feel like we're in a really good place right now. We're not as exposed as others to the available for sale mark-to-market challenges that I think are showing up in a lot of the numbers today, but we feel like we're in a really good place to capitalize and tangible book wise.

謝謝，蒂姆。我們真的很高興在 8 月，我們能夠像多年來所做的那樣，以機會主義的方式籌集資金。每股有形賬面價值以 11% 的速度增長，繼續支持我們的資產負債表增長，並支持服務帶來的 2023 年增長。所以我們覺得我們現在處於一個非常好的地方。我們不像其他人那樣暴露於可供出售的按市值計價的挑戰，我認為這些挑戰在今天的很多數字中都出現了，但我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的地方來資本化和有形的書明智的。

Okay. And then a question on expenses this next quarter. Specifically to say compensation, it's not unusual to see, say, a 5% to 10% sequential increase in that line item. Are you suggesting that it could be at the low end of that range or even lower?

好的。然後是關於下一季度費用的問題。具體來說，薪酬，例如，該訂單項連續增長 5% 到 10% 的情況並不罕見。您是否建議它可能處於該範圍的低端甚至更低？

Yes, even lower.

是的，甚至更低。

And then in terms of looking at the fees from Wealth Management business, I recognize it does take some time to move assets over and given when billing is done in the beginning part of the quarter, is there any kind of like insight you can give us on kind of what that number might look like for 4Q?

然後在查看財富管理業務的費用方面，我承認轉移資產確實需要一些時間，並且在本季度初完成計費時給出，您是否可以給我們任何類似的見解關於 4Q 的這個數字可能是什麼樣的？

This is Bob. I think you're right. It's a little bit of a mix of how many accounts opened during the quarter and when in terms of the fees we collect. It's also a little bit of a mix. We had a little bit of a shift a little bit more to fixed income. But I think we look at for the fourth quarter, probably between $135 million and $140 million of investment management fees.

這是鮑勃。我覺得你是對的。就我們收取的費用而言，本季度開設了多少賬戶以及何時開設了一些賬戶。它也有點混合。我們對固定收益有了更多的轉變。但我認為我們關注第四季度的投資管理費可能在 1.35 億美元到 1.4 億美元之間。

And The next question comes from Jared Shaw of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jared Shaw。

I guess on the CDs, where you'd referenced 15% as a percentage of the total mix in the past. Could you see that going higher than 15%? So as we're through this cycle with customer (inaudible)

我猜在 CD 上，您在過去提到 15% 作為總混音的百分比。你能看到高於 15% 嗎？因此，當我們與客戶一起度過這個週期時（聽不清）

I think it's hard to say, but I think I give you a perspective when the Fed peaked, we were around 15%. It's probably a good rule of thumb that we could end up there given our continued focus on serving clients and the products that they're interested in now also.

我認為這很難說，但我想我給你一個觀點，當美聯儲見頂時，我們在 15% 左右。鑑於我們繼續專注於為客戶提供服務以及他們現在感興趣的產品，我們最終可能會到達那裡可能是一個很好的經驗法則。

And then when you look at a lot of the CD specials that you have right now, it seems like it's a little shorter duration 4- and 5-month products. I guess what's the expectation for when those mature and we're potentially in a higher rate environment, will that to sort of roll into another shorter-duration option? Or would you look to extend duration on some of those CDs?

然後，當您查看您現在擁有的許多 CD 特價商品時，它似乎是持續時間較短的 4 個月和 5 個月產品。我猜當這些成熟並且我們可能處於更高利率的環境中時的期望是什麼，這是否會進入另一個較短的持續時間選項？或者您是否希望延長其中一些 CD 的持續時間？

Jared, it's Jim. One of the reasons we're staying short is that historically, most of the run-ups like this. And the steep lasts for not a long period of time, the steeper they are, the less long they lasted. And basically, what's going on here is a temporary problem on the margin coming from the steepness of the run-up. We're funding it with CDs. We have a very, very strong capacity to raise CDs funding is not an issue. And basically, we're sticking to our game plan of growing the bank and bringing in great clients. And the mortgage book will catch up in a relatively short period of time in a few quarters. And so basically, we want to stay short of the CDs in order to ride the other side of the hill down.

傑瑞德，是吉姆。我們保持空頭的原因之一是，從歷史上看，大多數的助跑都是這樣的。而且陡峭的持續時間不長，它們越陡峭，持續的時間就越短。基本上，這裡發生的事情是邊緣上的一個臨時問題，來自於上升的陡峭程度。我們用 CD 資助它。我們有非常非常強大的能力來籌集 CD 資金，這不是問題。基本上，我們堅持發展銀行和吸引優秀客戶的遊戲計劃。而且抵押賬簿會在幾個季度後在相對較短的時間內趕上來。因此，基本上，我們希望遠離 CD，以便從山的另一邊下山。

Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then just finally for me. As we look at the efficiency ratio going into 2023, do you think that you'll be able to keep it in that 62% to 64% range with that broader rate backdrop and margin expectation? Or could you see that potentially be a little more elevated for parts of the year there?

好的。偉大的。我很感激。然後終於對我來說。當我們觀察到 2023 年的效率比時，您認為在更廣泛的利率背景和利潤率預期的情況下，您是否能夠將其保持在 62% 至 64% 的範圍內？或者你能看到那裡一年中的部分時間可能會更高一些嗎？

No, we think 62% to 64% is given what we know now pretty good. And obviously, the first quarter tends to be a little elevated. But during the year, we think it'll be in that range as we look at it currently today.

不，我們認為 62% 到 64% 是我們現在所知道的相當不錯的。顯然，第一季度往往有點高。但在這一年裡，我們認為它會在我們今天看到的那個範圍內。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I will turn the call back to Mike Roffler for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。此時，我會將電話轉回 Mike Roffler，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Thank you for joining us on the call today, everybody, and we would just like to reiterate just a few points that First Republic was built on a service model for clients each and every day. This continues to drive our strong growth through all environments. And this medium-term pressure will pass. And as we mentioned earlier, when you get forward and get through this, the bank will have double-digit more households and continue to receive referrals and serve clients well and come out of this even stronger than we are today, given our continued pristine credit through the cycle. Thank you, and have a great day.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，我們只想重申幾點，第一共和國是建立在每天為客戶服務的模型之上的。這將繼續推動我們在所有環境中的強勁增長。而這種中期壓力將會過去。正如我們之前提到的，當您挺身而出並度過難關時，銀行將擁有兩位數的家庭，並繼續獲得推薦並為客戶提供良好的服務，並且鑑於我們持續的原始信用，我們會比今天更強大通過循環。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。