Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Fifth Third Bancorp's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Matt Curoe, Senior Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's third quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, our Chairman, CEO, and President, Tim Spence; and CFO, Bryan Preston will provide an overview of our third quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call.

  • Please review the cautionary statements in our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of October 17, 2025, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them.

  • Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. At Fifth Third, we believe that great banks distinguish themselves not by how they perform in benign environments or rather by how they navigate on certain ones. Our operating priorities are stability, profitability, and growth in that order. We seek to achieve them by obsessing over the detail on our day-to-day operations while simultaneously investing for the long term.

  • As you are aware, last week, we announced the merger of Fifth Third and Comerica. Our M&A framework has been consistent. First, that M&A is not a strategy unto itself, but rather a means to achieve stated strategic objectives. Second, that the cash earn back, IRR, and NPV of synergies must be superior to organic alternatives to justify higher execution risk. And third, that the outcome must be a company that is better, not just bigger. We believe this is one of those rare combinations that satisfies all three criteria.

  • Fifth Third's stand-alone momentum in the revenue and expense synergies from Comerica should produce a well-diversified, even more profitable company with even better long-term growth.

  • Shifting to third quarter earnings. This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.91 or $0.93, excluding certain items outlined on page 2 of the release. Reported and core results include the impact of nearly $200 million of provision expense associated with the fraud at Tricolor, which marred otherwise an excellent quarter of operating results across NII, fees, expenses, and strategic growth. Average loans increased 6% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter where year-over-year loan growth accelerated.

  • Average demand deposits were up 3% year-over-year, led by 6% consumer DDA growth. Adjusted revenues also rose 6%, underpinned by 7% improvement in net interest income and 5% growth in fees. Adjusted PPNR increased 11%, producing 330 basis points of positive operating leverage. Even with the impact of the large fraud, our profitability remains strong. On an adjusted basis, our ROA was 1.25%, our RoTCE was 17.7%, and our efficiency ratio was 54.1%.

  • In credit, commercial non-performing assets declined 14% and criticized assets decreased 4%, to the lowest level in over three years. Lastly, tangible book value per share grew 7% year-over-year and 3% sequentially in a quarter in which we repurchased $300 million of stock and raised our common dividend by 8%.

  • Turning to our growth strategies. Our investments in the Southeast and expanding our middle market sales force and in building high-growth recurring fee businesses continue to demonstrate strong results. We added 13 branches in the Southeast during the third quarter, including our first in Alabama, and we expect to open 27 more before the end of the year. Consumer households across the Southeast increased by 7% year-over-year more than 4x the rate of underlying market growth.

  • Our deposit pricing remained disciplined with the total cost of retail deposits in the Southeast averaging 193 basis points in the quarter. We'll leverage the same proven de novo playbook, marketing tactics, and differentiated digital offerings to drive retail deposit growth as we add 150 branches to Comerica's Texas footprint. Together, we'll have a presence in 17 of the fastest-growing large US metro areas.

  • In our regions, our focus on middle market and wealth management is delivering new quality relationships, granular loan growth, and recurring fees. In the third quarter, middle market RM headcount increased 8% year-over-year. New client acquisition increased 40% and average middle market loans increased 6%.

  • In Wealth and Asset Management, advisor headcount rose to 10% year-over-year, while fees climbed 11% and assets under management reached $77 billion in the quarter. Post close, we will rely on the same recruiting disciplines, investment capacity, and one bank sales approach to help Comerica accelerate the growth of their crown jewel middle market franchise.

  • In our CIB verticals, Franchise Finance had another standout quarter. Over the past year, we have served as the lead arranger on 24 transactions totaling $3.9 billion, including eight in the third quarter alone. Over the past two years, the Franchise Finance team has generated more than $40 million in annual commercial payments fees and $34 million in capital markets fees. We are excited to add Comerica's strong verticals to our existing expertise including in National Dealer Services, Environmental Services, and Tech and Life Sciences, among others.

  • In commercial payments, fee growth reaccelerated to 3% sequentially in the third quarter. Newline increased revenue by 31% year-over-year and grew deposits by more than a $1 billion. We expect Newline to sustain its growth as transactional activity ramps from the rollout of Strike Treasury and many other category definement payments customers who build on Newline's APIs.

  • We're also seeing strong early activity from our acquisition of DTS Connex. Since the announcement, we have launched pilots with the most profitable quick service restaurant in the industry and the 1,200 location chain of convenience stores and also executed the first pre-ordered branch change order at a major bank with over 2,000 branches.

  • On Direct Express, our merger with Comerica should simplify the transition for its 3.4 million program participants. We also anticipate additional growth opportunities stemming from the President's executive order, mandating the transition to electronic payments for all federal disbursements.

  • Lastly, we continue to deploy technology and lean manufacturing principles to produce savings and boost scalability. From our peak staffing level in early 2019, total headcount at Fifth Third is down 8%, while adjusted revenues are up 20%. The investments we've made will help us to efficiently scale the business and achieve our synergy targets as we integrate Comerica.

  • Before Bryan provides further detail on our outlook, I'd like to revisit the commitments we made at the beginning of the year, to deliver record NII regardless of the rate environment and to produce 150 basis points to 200 basis points of positive operating leverage for the full year. We will deliver both.

  • Looking to 2026 and beyond, there is so much to be excited about at Fifth Third. Among these, the tailwind from our investments in the Southeast, along with 60 additional branches to be opened next year, the sustained excellence of our J.D. Power award-winning digital experience and differentiated payments products, the incredible new colleagues, geographies and capabilities at Comerica becoming part of our company.

  • I'm grateful to all of the people whose hard work has put us in a position to take these steps. To the colleagues of both Fifth Third and Comerica, who will work so hard in the coming months to make our partnership a success and in particular, to our clients who entrust us with their well-being.

  • With that, Bryan will provide more detail on the quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter.

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Tim, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Third quarter results reflect disciplined execution of our strategic priorities. Expanding in the Southeast, scaling payments in Newline, and maintaining operational efficiency while delivering strong performance in a rapidly changing environment. Adjusted revenue was $2.3 billion, our highest since 2022. NII grew 7% year-over-year and 2% sequentially and net interest margin expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter.

  • Our balance sheet continues to benefit from our balanced business mix through diversified loan origination platforms, fixed rate asset repricing tailwinds, and broad funding sources supporting proactive liability management. Our fee businesses, led by wealth, commercial payments, and capital markets delivered adjusted growth of 5% year-over-year and 7% sequentially.

  • This revenue performance, along with ongoing expense discipline, led to an 11% increase in pre-provision net revenue and 330 basis points of positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis compared to the third quarter of last year.

  • As Tim mentioned, tangible book value per share, including the impact of AOCI, grew 3% from the second quarter despite only an 8-basis point decrease in the 10-year treasury rate, unrealized losses on our AFS portfolio improved 9% sequentially, underscoring the benefits of our bullet and locked-out securities. These positions provide certainty of cash flows and should continue to support tangible book value growth as they pull to par.

  • Now diving further into the income statement and balance sheet performance. Net interest margin expanded 23 basis points over last year and 1 basis point sequentially. Year-over-year, average loans are up 6%, and excluding CRE categories, average balances are up 7%. Repricing benefits on fixed rate assets and disciplined management of liability costs continue to contribute to the strong NII performance.

  • As Tim noted, relationship manager headcount is up 8%, and average middle market loans grew 6% over the last year. Third quarter middle market production rebounded sharply, up around 50% on both a year-over-year and sequential basis.

  • Production levels are stable to improving in 11- of 14 regions, with the strongest performance in Central Ohio, Georgia, Texas and the Carolinas. Provide, our fintech lending platform for Practice Finance continues to drive growth with balances up nearly $1 billion over the last year.

  • This growth in middle market C&I and Provide helps offset paydowns in our CIB and CRE portfolios, where average loan balances declined modestly as clients access bond and permanent financing markets during the quarter. This capital markets activity was a contributor to our strong fee performance during the quarter.

  • Production in our corporate banking verticals also rebounded this quarter, up 24% over 2Q. Pipelines for Middle Market and Corporate Banking remain strong heading into year-end. Commercial line utilization held steady throughout the quarter and ended in the mid-36% area.

  • In total, end-of-period commercial loans are up 5% over last year. Consumer loans grew 2% on an average basis and 1% on a period-end basis from the prior quarter. We once again saw growth in nearly every major consumer lending category, led by continued strength in auto and home equity lending.

  • Shifting to deposits. Average core deposits increased 1% sequentially driven by DDA and money market growth. Average non-interest-bearing deposits grew 1% sequentially and 3% over the prior year, led by consumer DDA growth of 6% as we continue to drive strong household growth through a de novo investment. Overall, consumer household growth remained strong at 3% over the last year, led by the 7% growth in the Southeast.

  • Proactive balance sheet management has allowed us to maintain our strong liquidity position while reducing our overall funding costs. We remain focused on granular insured deposits, growing average consumer and small business deposits by 1% sequentially. Consumer and payments linked deposit growth has given us the flexibility to manage down wholesale funding, which declined 3% sequentially. This favorable mix shift lowered the cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 1 basis point.

  • Our Southeast de novo investments continue to deliver high-quality, low-cost retail deposits. Locations opened between 2022 and 2024 are significantly outperforming expectations with deposits per branch at month 12, averaging over $25 million, outpacing our model targets. And as Tim mentioned, our total cost of deposits in the Southeast is only 1.93%, generating 200-plus basis points of spread relative to Fed funds.

  • We remain on track to open 50 branches this year, with 23 opened year-to-date. We have secured approximately 85% of the locations for the additional 200 Southeast branches that we announced last November. We ended the quarter with full category 1 LCR compliance at 126% and our loan-to-core deposit ratio was 75%, down 1% from the prior quarter.

  • Moving on to fees. Adjusted non-interest income, excluding security gains and Visa swap impacts, grew 7% sequentially and 5% over the last year. Wealth fees rose by 11% over the last year on $8 billion of AUM growth and strong retail brokerage activity. Capital markets fees rebounded, up 28% sequentially and 4% over the last year driven by higher activity in loan syndications and M&A advisories.

  • Commercial payment fees increased $5 million or 3% sequentially, including a $2 million negative impact from higher earnings credits on demand deposit growth. This fee performance was driven by core treasury management and Newline-related gross fees.

  • Newline-related deposits hit $3.9 billion, up $1 billion from a year ago. The securities gains of $10 million were from the mark-to-market impact of our non-qualified deferred compensation plan, which is offset in compensation expense.

  • Moving to expenses. Adjusted non-interest expense increased 3% compared to the year ago quarter and 2% sequentially, reflecting continued strategic investments in technology, branches and sales personnel. Even with the headcount additions associated with these investments, overall headcount was down 1% versus last year as our value stream programs continue to drive savings through automation and process redesign. By year-end, we anticipate $200 million of annualized run rate savings associated with our value stream programs.

  • Shifting to credit. The net charge-off ratio was 109 basis points for the quarter, which includes $178 million in net charge-offs from Tricolor. NPAs declined 10% sequentially as expected and the NPA ratio decreased to 65 basis points. Broad-based credit trends remain stable across industries and geographies.

  • Excluding Tricolor, commercial charge-offs were 51 basis points compared to 38 basis points in the prior quarter. This increase is due to the resolution of certain non-performing loans for which specific reserves had been previously established.

  • Commercial non-performing loans decreased 14% sequentially and 30% since the first quarter. Consumer charge-offs were 52 basis points in the quarter, down 4 basis points, which is the lowest level over the last two years. The sequential decrease is primarily due to improvement in solar lending charge-offs which were down 39 basis points sequentially as expected. The broad consumer portfolio remains healthy with non-accrual and over 90 delinquency rates stable or improving across loan categories.

  • Provision expense included a $142 million reduction in our allowance for credit losses, reflecting improvement in Moody's macroeconomic scenarios and a reduction in specific reserves. Even with the scenario improvements, our baseline and downside cases assume unemployment reaching 4.8% and 8.4% in 2026, respectively. We made no changes to our scenario weightings during the quarter.

  • ACL as a percentage of our portfolio loans and leases decreased 13 basis points to 1.96%. The ACL as a percentage of non-performing assets increased to 302% in due to the decrease in NPAs.

  • Moving to capital. CET1 ended at 10.54% consistent with our near-term target of 10.5%. The pro forma CET1 ratio including the AOCI impact of the securities portfolio is 8.8%. We expect continued improvement in the unrealized losses as 62% of the fixed rate securities in our AFS portfolio are in bolder lockout structures which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations.

  • Moving to our current outlook. We expect NII to be stable to up 1% from the third quarter due to loan and core deposit growth. This outlook assumes two 25-basis point rate cuts during the fourth quarter. We expect average total loan balances to be up 1% due to normal seasonal growth, strong C&I pipelines, and continued broad-based momentum in consumer lending. We expect adjusted non-interest income to be up 2% to 3% due to seasonal strength in capital markets and continued commercial payments growth.

  • Fourth quarter adjusted noninterest expense is expected to be up 2% due to the opening of 27 financial centers in the Southeast and incentive compensation related to the growth in capital markets fees. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue to be up nearly 5% and PPNR to grow 7% to 8%.

  • Moving to credit. Fourth quarter net charge-offs are expected to be around 40 basis points. Finally, turning to capital. We will be pausing share repurchases until the close of the Comerica acquisition, which is currently expected around the end of the first quarter of 2026.

  • In summary, we expect to maintain our momentum as we end the year and achieved record NII, positive operating leverage and strong returns in an uncertain environment, all while continuing to invest for the long term.

  • With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open up the call for Q&A.

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Bryan. (Event Instructions)

  • Operator, please open the call for Q&A.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

  • Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Tim, can you give us some further updates or color on the Comerica transaction in terms of how it's been received internally at Comerica and maybe by their customers? They're going to be obviously part of Fifth Third in a short while.

  • And then second, as part of that, how the process is going with the regulators? We're seeing an incredibly expedited timeline on deals that have been announced before your deal being approved in less than six months.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Happy to do that, Gerard. And I think in general, it's just been, I think, positive all the way across the board. So just to start with the regulators first, I think we're making good progress on the regulatory filings. We expect to have them complete by the end of the month.

  • And then for you, the S-4 should be filed shortly after we get the Q out. I think the Comptroller of the Currency's public commentary actually was attached to a new charter approval recently, but about accelerating the review of both new charter applications and merger applications is clearly a very positive development and consistent with what we're seeing in other deals.

  • And all the early engagement that we have done with the regulators has been constructive. So I feel very good about the timeline that we laid out and that Bryan just reiterated.

  • I think the feedback from employees and communities has been really positive on both sides of Fifth Third and Comerica. I think the number one question that we're getting is what the name of the Detroit Tiger stadium is going to be at the end of all this. It's a pretty good sign about what we're dealing with. So -- and I think what has run through to folks of this idea that we're going to be able to accomplish things together that neither company was going to be able to do on their own.

  • There was a -- one of the other CEOs on another call talked a little bit about their philosophy on M&A and what they were interested in and not. I actually think what he said, if I were to abstract a little bit, is really true. Like if you're going to do a deal and you want it to be successful, it either has to be strength paring strength or strength pairing opportunity. You can't have places where both companies are weak, be credit cold as a deal outcome and the beauty of what we're doing with Comerica is the things you need to believe are either strength-strength or strength-opportunity, right?

  • We're great at retail deposit gathering and are already primarily retail deposit funded. So we're going to be able to do a lot there. They have a fabulous granular middle-market loan franchise. We priced more granularity in our commercial business. There's going to be a really nice complement there.

  • We're both strong in different ways in the payments business and wealth management. So there's a strength-strength match. I just think there's a lot positive there. And I think what we are going to try to do, either later this quarter as we turn the beginning of the year is to just provide a little bit more insight to investors on the synergies.

  • We are feeling very good about our ability to get the outcomes. When you look at the synergies as a percentage of Fifth Third and Comerica combined, which is really the right way to look about it, look at it because that's the way that we'll be approaching this exercise. They're quite manageable, and I think well defined.

  • But just in general, either the reception has been -- it's -- the teams on both sides were small because of the focused diligence effort. So that the first announcement Monday morning was, wow, followed by, I think, in general, a lot of excitement about what we're going to be able to get done together.

  • Gerard Cassidy - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. And as a follow-up, as you said in your opening comments, the great banks distinguish themselves on how they navigate uncertain environments. And this week has certainly been very uncertain for many of the regional banks, including your own. Because of the concerns about this, NDFI lending and the contagion risk. And I frame that with, if you go back to the 1980s and look at what happened in the price of oil in Texas dropping below $10 a barrel that led to the contagion risk of commercial real estate blowing up.

  • In the NDFI portfolio you have, and I know you have the Tricolor issue, but is there a contagion risk in there? And can you just share maybe your thoughts on what's going on with that portfolio and how the market is reacting to it?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I appreciate you being the one to give the history lesson this time around. Normally, I feel like it has to be me on these calls, so thanks for that. And you'll be happy to know I assigned the book, Belly Up as reading to new executives at Fifth Third. So there's a lot of familiarity with the oil patch bust in Texas and Oklahoma around the shop here.

  • I think one of the challenges we have on the NDFI front is while the Fed's reporting was designed to be helpful here, the categorization is a little bit confusing. So Schroeck is prepared to talk a little bit about maybe an easier way to understand what's in NDFI across the industry and in our portfolio in particular. So I'm going to turn it over to him.

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. It's great question, Gerard. Thank you. I'll start by saying it's a portfolio that we have maintained low levels. We're the lowest -- one of the lowest levels in the FI concentrations of large banks. We're at about 8% of the total portfolio. As Tim said, the core report categories can be pretty generic. So I'll provide a breakdown based on how we review the exposure and the risks contained in that portfolio.

  • I'll start with REITs. So REITs and other mortgage-related facilities make up 33% of our NDFI balances and represent the largest portion of the portfolio. Represents one of our oldest asset classes within our ABF portfolio. We have processes, procedures, and structures that have been tested through the cycle and include robust monitoring of liens to ensure a priority of our mortgages. We've not had any losses in this portfolio over the last 10 years. So a really solid portion of the portfolio that makes up our largest component.

  • Next, about 24% of the NDFI balances are to payment processors, insurance companies, brokerage firms and SBIC firms or funds. Balances in this category are primarily related to large players, well-recognized names and not at all related to the conversations going on in the markets right now.

  • Next would be our subscription facilities at 18% of NDFI funds represent exposure to high net worth individuals and other private capital investors who have capital commitments to these funds. 13% of the balances are loans to private capital warehouse facilities. This category has been an area of rapid growth in the industry. However, we've been really intentional in limiting our growth in these vehicles.

  • We have one lender where we have a deep relationship. This is a portfolio where we have deep relationships with the lenders, typically lending into one of their portfolio companies and that's -- that relationship orientation is key as we look into that portion of the NDFI portfolio. The smaller share of NDFI balances are loans to non-real estate and non-private credit-related warehouses. It's about 9% of our balances. That category includes our exposure to consumer asset classes.

  • Gerard, you mentioned Tricolor. It's in -- that fraud issue was in that portfolio and has received significant scrutiny as part of our comprehensive review of the portfolio. Given that comprehensive review, we feel very confident in the quality of the remaining clients in that category.

  • We've been overall, and we've been very deliberate in our strategy to keep NDFI portfolio balances diversified. Our disciplined underwriting framework is designed to safeguard portfolio quality by avoiding aggressive advance rates which we see in the marketplace sometimes, overly concentrated collateral pools, inexperienced management teams and structures that do not meet our overall risk appetite.

  • I'll also add, as part of the Comerica, Gerard, you mentioned Comerica, but part of that review -- during our due diligence, we also reviewed Comerica's NDFI portfolio. 70% of Comerica's NDFI portfolio is concentrated in low-risk subscription facilities, which complements our disciplined approach to client selection and portfolio diversification.

  • Post close, our combined NDFI balances will be 7%, so down from our Fifth Third overall 8%. So we feel really good about the ongoing diversification and overall asset quality of the remaining portfolio.

  • Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • I guess maybe just sticking with credit and outside of the NDFI issues. Just if you -- from a mark-to-market standpoint, are your customers feeling the pain on the commercial side from tariffs and slowing activity? Or are we on the other side actually where things are picking up in terms of folks wanting to make investment decisions, which could drive loan growth? I'm just wondering what seems more likely as we cut through all this noise at the moment here?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I think unfortunately, the answer to that is yes on both points. The close of the quarter, I was out in several of our markets. I got to visit about three dozen of our commercial clients, and the quarter-to-quarter went to the client, we referred to as outlook quote, nauseously optimistic. The tariff uncertainty absolutely continues to weigh on any clients that are exposed.

  • That said, I would tell you, in general, people are more optimistic than they were in the second quarter, in part because when you add up all of the different tariffs, there is some uniformity across most of the countries that provide our significant sources of the supply chain for folks in materials and manufacturing and construction and the other sectors that are big in our footprint.

  • The question mark really has been what would be the -- who would bear the brunt of the tariffs. And I would say now on balance it is a sort of a shared-pain approach here where the supplier, the intermediary, and the customer each absorbing about a third of the increased cost. But the supplier and the intermediaries have also been clear whenever we talk to them that their intent is ultimately to get back to prior margins, which would mean over time, you would see continued price increases as a mechanism to move the cost through.

  • The bright spot here is really, one, that's just the Fed resuming rate costs. I think people have been more optimistic about they're more front-end focused, and I think I would have said, I believe them to be, and they're more optimistic about what the value of a total of 50 basis points to 100 basis points of cuts will have on client demand and also penciling out of their own investments.

  • There's also another reality here, which is a lot of our clients when the tariff announcements hit deferred capital expenditures and have been renting, either renting excess space or renting equipment. And we are getting requests now for financing that are reflected in the pipeline in the middle market business, in particular, to support the sort of shift from rent to own. So I think that's quite positive.

  • The other thing that I like seeing is I like our logistics clients, they're a good bellwether on the sort of wheels of the economy turning and we're hearing some logistics clients that there hasn't exactly been a huge rebound, but that the activity has stabilized and is moving on the upswing.

  • The folks that are having the most robust demand, obviously, are the people who are either attached to the big government infrastructure investments, things like bridges and roads that are moving forward or the folks that are attached to AI and there's so much demand there because with one of our clients in the concrete business that not only have a strong order book, but the suppliers are driving the pricing as opposed to the buyers driving the pricing in these cases, meaning the margins are really great. And the other end of the spectrum, I think residential construction, auto is still slower.

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And I guess just a separate question. I think, back to Comerica. I think if you don't mind spending some time around -- and you talked about this when you announced the deal, just the optionality that Comerica provides. So you've talked about opening the branches in Texas, but Comerica also had a big technology, life science practice and Fifth Third through Newline has been leaning in there.

  • Just either it's that or either it's double-clicking on the existing footprint and deepening relationships, which may have kind of sidelined a bit over the last decade. What's that potential to unlock and accelerate growth for the combined entity as we look out a year from now?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for asking on that one. You know, one of my fundamental beliefs is if you don't want to grow by sacrificing pricing or risk discipline, you have to attach yourself to segments of the economy that have a secular tailwind, and the innovation economy is the most profound secular tailwind on the business side of our business in the US.

  • So I am quite excited about the potential on Tech and Life Sciences. Historically, the OCC looked at that business a little bit differently than other people did, but I think the early signals coming out of the OCC are that they want national banks to be able to compete in all markets. And I am optimistic that we're going to be able to do some interesting things there.

  • Michigan is about creating -- finishing off the play in terms of the fortress position in the Midwest. Texas for us is going to be about investment. I think we can continue to add a lot more middle-market bankers. And clearly, the branches are there. California really will be a more business-focused strategy and between Newline, which is a unique asset. And the fact that a lot of the early folks at SVB actually were from a predecessor to Comerica in 1991, we have the credibility having been in that market.

  • Like there's a really interesting thing to be done there because post SVB, to your point, you have First Citizen's still active, you have JPMorgan active. You have a couple of investment banks active that really are leading on the M&A advisory and capital raising front. And then you have foreign banks. And a fragmented market like that will be -- is good hunting for people like us.

  • The thing that's probably important to remember with Comerica is I think they're running a 4:1 deposit-to-loan ratio 3:1, 4:1 deposit-to-loan ratio in that market. So one of the things we may do very early on is just focus on the ways in which we can leverage Newline to drive even more deposits into the platform as well.

  • Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Tim, so I mean, based on all you've said, I don't get the impression that there's any change or impact to your de novo expansion plans while you go through the Comerica transaction. But I was just hoping you could spend a moment discussing sort of how you balance the planned organic expansion with the large integration, just to make sure nothing sort of slips through the cracks.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. No, that's great. So I think you probably have to think about it in two ways. One is just what resources the two sort of separate growth areas of focus draw on. So the de novos are in the Southeast footprint. There is going to be -- there are some really wonderful Comerica bankers in the Southeast, but they don't have a branch presence. So we're not going to have disruption in those markets. So the regional leaders, who have to be on top of driving the daily, weekly, monthly activity in the Southeast, are not going to be disruptive. That's the first thing.

  • Secondarily, the people inside the bank who find the locations, who build the locations, and who run the locations are three different groups. So 85%, as Bryan said, of the locations have been found, meaning that group has the capacity to be able to be looking for locations in Texas. And if you just do the math on the 40 we will have built in the second half of this year, the 60 we just said we're going to build next year, by the time we're at a point where we've got sites and permits pulled, the people who build the locations are going to be freed up from the Southeast to be able to shift their focus onto the acceleration of the openings in Texas.

  • And lastly, because of the scale we have in the Southeast, the draw on human capital and the need to drive recruiting and otherwise to be able to support the new branches is substantially lower because the majority of the folks we put into the de novos are people who have trained up and come through our other retail financial centers. And therefore, the Southeast is sort of on the flywheel of being able to feed itself. So there really is not an overlap in terms of the critical resources to be able to do those two things.

  • I think the second thing that's really important as we've talked a lot about the focus on modularity in the way that we drive the retail expansion, that has been the point I'm trying to make, whenever I say we haven't built 100 branches. We build one branch a 100 times. It's a consistent site selection model. It's a consistent retail format, meaning there's no need for additional engineering resources or otherwise.

  • We have experience at this point with essentially every zoning jurisdiction and set up that you would want to experience in the zoning rules in general in Texas are much easier than they are in the Southeast and certainly than the Midwest.

  • So it's not like we're going to have to learn on the fly here. We just have to find the locations, and we have the people to do that. And we've got to build the same thing we've been building, and we know how to do that, obviously. And then the focus really is going to be on making sure that as we do the conversion in Texas. The initial experience that Comerica's existing retail clients have is really, really strong. And then that we are doing the recruiting that we need to do to be able to support the larger base.

  • Lastly, it's probably worth noting, and I think we were building a fair number of de novos in '19 when we did the MB conversion. We didn't have any problem juggling both of those either.

  • R. Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then with regard to Direct Express, you noted that the merger should simplify the transition for the customers. I imagine it really eases things for you all as well. I know there was already a sense of urgency to get the balances moved before the merger was announced. But I was hoping you could just sort of spend a moment, at least at a top level on how -- I presume it's all still going to switch to Fifth Third's rails. How -- what are the sort of the plans for that to take place?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So the transition schedule that we talked about when we announced the Direct Express win that commencing Fifth Third as the administrative agent for new program enrollees in the beginning of the first quarter and then starting the conversion process at the end of the second quarter is still progressing as planned and I feel good about all that.

  • The dynamic here that's most important is that we were going to have to issue out of our own bins or buy Comerica's bins in order to be able to make the card numbers work, right? And when the deal closes, again, provided that it closes as we expect it to and in advance of when we were planning the back-end conversions, the factors that would have driven new card issuance would have been the need to use a different bid range.

  • So we -- Kurt and I had actually talked about Fifth Third buying the bins from Comerica prior to commencing the discussion on the merger itself. We were looking at the possibility of being able to simplify that aspect for the program participants. And clearly, we get the deal closed, the bins are ours, and we'll be able to continue to issue out of them and maintain existing cards.

  • Operator

  • Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • You touched on Direct Express right now. I was wondering if you could talk about just opportunity there on the income statement and the contribution there. I think on the CMA deck, you adjusted for about $110 million in NII. But can you touch on what the full opportunity is there? And how do you expect that to grow, the fee contribution that you expect maybe the expense add on there? Any additional color there would be helpful.

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, happy to talk, Manan. The big question when we announced the program was really about the win of the program was about the timing of when we would see the balance transitions over and that was one of the reasons why we said we'd provide more information in the fourth quarter.

  • Obviously, the Comerica transaction provides a lot more certainty around how the balances will hit the third's balance sheet. On average, it's about $3.5 billion of DDA that will obviously provide a lot of funding benefits associated with our balance sheet.

  • From a fee perspective, the way to think about it is there's probably a 15% to 20% type margin on the fees relative to the expense load. And you're probably looking at something that is in the range of $100 million to $110 million type expense level that's primarily related to the processing costs and the fees, there's a gross up on the fees associated with the interchange that comes through.

  • We do have some revenue share with our processing partners. That's why there will be a fairly direct link on that. And then the growth for us is primarily going to be related to transaction activity in the future as well as growth in the programs.

  • And we are excited about the potential for incremental growth in the program due to the executive order trying to limit more -- to limit the amount of paper checks that are issued, and this is the government's program for electronic disbursements. So we do believe there's even more upside in the program over time as the government continues to try to find efficiencies in its disbursement processes.

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Maybe if I can pivot over to credit. Excluding the credit that you called out, I think NCOs were about 52 basis points this quarter, and you're guiding for about 40 basis points in the fourth quarter. I know you talked about some of the sentiment and what you're hearing, but can you speak to what gives you the confidence that NCOs will step down from here? And how we should think about that going into 2026?

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. It's Greg. Great question. So I look at it in a couple of different ways. One of the leading indicators, right, the criticized assets, and as Bryan mentioned, our criticized assets are down again 4% this quarter. I also look at predictability. We've been -- we've talked over the last couple of quarters about NPAs coming down in that 40% range. They were 14% this quarter, 30% over the last two quarters, and we have good visibility tracking to that 40% at the end of the year. We're not seeing NPA surprises. The losses we're taking are reserved. So those are all leading indicators.

  • I think we're continuing to do a good job on getting out ahead of some of these problems and dealing with them timely. So I feel good about that. The consumer portfolio continues to perform very, very well. 90-day delinquencies are just 6 basis points below even pre-COVID levels. Consumer loss rates stable at 52 basis points. That's consistent with our 10-year average. We noted the solar portfolio is improving, as we said on prior calls. So the portfolio is playing out as we have predicted over the last couple of quarters. And I still feel really good.

  • I mean, excluding the Tricolor fraud-related issue, I still expect full year charge-offs to land in the midpoint of our original guidance range and assuming no significant changes in the environment. Based on what I know today, I continue to be very confident that the commercial loss rates return to that mid 30 basis points, 35 basis point range in the fourth quarter.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And then if I just add, since there are some names that have been the news. We have no relationship with Kantor. We did have a relationship historically with first brands, but we exited it in a handful of years ago because of some issues that were identified during the collateral reviews we were doing. And that only residual exposure there is $51,000 of operating leases, so $51,000 secured Greg tells me by a forklift and a printer.

  • I asked if the printer had wheels, he said no. So if necessary, we're going to use the forklift to get the printer out of there. But they're just -- that's the other thing here in terms of confidence is there's no exposure to the names that are out in the market.

  • Operator

  • Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about the NII trajectory and the helpers that you have. Can you just give us an update about the fixed rate repricing that you have and what you're seeing now given the change in the curve in terms of the benefits and how long out you have line of sight on to that?

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks, Ken. Great question. We continue to feel good about fixed rate asset repricing. That's something that was a contributor this quarter as well as for most of the year. We have seen a decent compression in the yield curve this quarter. In particular, two- to three-year point in the curve has come down about 40 basis points since we talked with you as part of July earnings. And that obviously has a decent impact on the indirect auto business, which has been a big driver of our fixed rate asset repricing.

  • We're still seeing $4 billion to $5 billion a quarter of fixed rate assets that repricing and it's picking -- we're picking up now around 100 basis points, and we expect that 100 basis points to persist basically through the end of the next year -- end of this year and into mid to late next year. So we do feel good about the trajectory that we're seeing there, even with some of the compression that we've seen from a curve perspective.

  • And then honestly, for 2026, when you think about NII trajectory, the Comerica transaction just has such a meaningful impact on the overall balance sheet positioning. And as we've talked as part of that announcement, fairly decent pickup from a profitability perspective. And the NII is going to be a good component of that as we work ahead on bringing our diverse funding capabilities to that platform as well as positioning the balance sheet for -- and using our fixed rate loan origination platforms to position the balance sheet for better long-term performance. And so we feel very good about the trajectory that we're on.

  • We are heading into next year intentionally running a little bit heavier on cash and a little bit more balance on from a deposit perspective because we do want to be in a position to take care of some of the funding things that they have had to do as they have managed through this environment the last couple of years. And so you are going to see us a little bit more balance on from a retail perspective.

  • We've always been very focused on keeping our retail contribution to be the primary funder of our balance sheet. And that's something that we'll want to continue to do as we bring the Comerica balance sheet on board.

  • Ken Usdin - Analyst

  • Yes. Great. And that was actually dovetail to my follow-up, which was just -- it's been great to see the non-interest-bearing growth over the last couple of quarters and still a little increase in the IBD costs. So to that point you just made, and given that we're on the next leg down of the rate cycle, what does that put us into context in terms of what you're expecting to see in terms of deposit betas on the IBD side?

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. For the next -- I would tell you for the next couple of quarters, the fourth quarter and into the first quarter, we're going to be a little less aggressive than we have been. We delivered a low 60s beta on the first 100 basis points of cuts prior to the Comerica transaction. I had high confidence that we were going to be able to deliver kind of mid-40s to low 50s beta, which would have kept us in a good position.

  • But given the point of trying to stay balanced on from a retail perspective because we want to work ahead and be in a position to deal with some high-cost funding that's on their balance sheet. That will be a very accretive transaction for us in 2026 when we utilize the optionality that our funding position will give us next year to deal with some issues on the combined balance sheet.

  • We're going to run a little bit lower on our betas from here. So I would expect that for the fourth quarter and the first quarter for our betas to be in the more like the 30% range. And so that's a little bit of the rationale when we talk about kind of a stable to up 1% NII forecast for the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter is taking that into context.

  • Operator

  • Chris McGratty, KBW.

  • Sean Cohan - Analyst

  • Sean Cohan, actually on for Chris McGratty. Question just on the expense growth expectations. You touched on near-term expense growth elevating as you continue to invest in the branch expansion. But just longer term, how should we think about operating leverage from here?

  • And maybe more specifically, how you think about organic expense growth in terms of balancing places that require continued investment, such as payments as well as the branch expansion, obviously, in Texas as well as Southeast versus kind of like the synergies and the offsets from both the merger as well as prior AI expense?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • A lot of good questions embedded in there. So a couple of things. One, the branch expense is seasonal for us. So we -- I think we said we were going to get about 50 branches opened this year. So 40 of the 50 happen in the second half of the year. That's part of the reason that you see the ramp in the fourth quarter as half of the branches in total get opened in the fourth quarter alone.

  • And that's actually an improvement for us. It used to be 85% or 90% of the branches got opened in the fourth quarter. So I wouldn't read too much into the fourth quarter as a point of extrapolation into the future. We do believe we have the ability to continue to drive operating leverage out of the company. It's been convenience that others have offered 2027 as a medium-term guidance range because that corresponds with the numbers that we provided for the combination of Fifth Third and Comerica.

  • And the outlook there was 19% RoTCE or better and getting down to the low to mid-50s, call it, 53% in terms of the efficiency ratio, and we trended 54% this quarter, the guide implies 54% for next quarter. So there is continued operating leverage in order to get there. And that's inclusive of the sorts of investments we're making in the business.

  • I mean we bought a payment software company in this past quarter that feathered into the run rate. I think what's worked for us here has been this belief that we need to fund something on the order of half of everything that we want to invest back into the business through finding other savings opportunities.

  • That's principally been automation, leveraging technology to drive people costs down and to improve scalability. And those investments are going to be super helpful, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks as we integrate Comerica. But it's allowed us to just look at it over five years.

  • I mean I think we've bought now five fintech companies during that period in time. We built more branches than anybody other than JPMorgan during that period of time. We've been growing the sales force by 5% to 10% across the regional footprint during that period of time, making big investments in tech platforms and otherwise. And despite all that, we've had, I think, something that's on the order of the lowest cumulative expense growth across our peer group.

  • So we are going to continue to invest in the company. I'm super excited, as I've said, about the opportunities to invest into places like Texas and scaling the verticals like National Dealer Services and pairing that with the auto business, in tech and life sciences, like Ebrahim asked earlier. But we also expect ourselves to have to pay as we go in addition to asking investors to back in. And that's why you get the operating leverage at the end of the day.

  • Operator

  • Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • I have kind of one negative question, one positive question. So the negative question, if you could just double click on the Tricolor category. So I think it was 9% of your total NDFI. Just elaborate more on what's contained in that category.

  • And the positive question is you talked about the team that will be in charge of the integration of Comerica. You have Jamie. You also don't -- I haven't heard you talk about Darren Keeney either. I almost forget that he's there, you're keeping him like lock the deposit somewhere, but you have a lot of talent at the top of the house. I'd like to hear how they'll be deployed for the integration, but first, more elaboration on the Tricolor category.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I would go to say we'll start there because now I'm going to go get Darren out of his office and demonstrate that he is free to move around the building. Go ahead, Greg.

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • So Mike, it's primarily consumer asset classes. So consumer auto, consumer finance companies is the majority of that 9%. And there's a reason why it's our lowest category from a concentration standpoint as we're watching that consumer very, very closely, clearly impacted with higher interest rates, unemployment, inflation, et cetera. But that's primarily what makes up that category.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And it's dominated by relationships with the largest players, specifically long tenure in their categories. But having been through all these names myself, as I mentioned at Barclays, I find confidence that Tricolor's unfortunately, is unique there in terms of being present relative to the discipline that exists in the rest of that book.

  • On -- yes. I think we have an excellent team. And I think Comerica is bringing really excellent executives to the table in terms of what we're doing here. So the integration of Advisory Council is jointly staffed. Jamie is on point from Fifth Third, Megan Burkhart from Comerica, their Chief Administrative Officer from Comerica. Folks like Darren and Pete Saftek from Comerica, the IT leaders, folks from operations and otherwise all involved here.

  • Darren, it is focused -- Darren's worked very closely with Peter in thinking through how we integrate the middle-market bankers, Darren's responsibility here as regional banking. So Darren's head wealth management, middle market and business banking, Peter will take on wealth management. Darren is taking on the expanded middle market business banking side of the equation.

  • So they have been working through key roles, taking opportunities where we're allowed to do so to meet people and to make sure that everybody knows that if you talk to customers, you're in good shape in terms of being able to look forward to a broader quality product set and more capacity to invest in growth.

  • The other thing I'd tell you, I'm really optimistic about is we have a really outstanding IT organization. The IT group here has essentially entirely been reconstituted since 2018 or 2019. It is led by people who were Fortune 150 CIOs, people who founded businesses that ended up being taken out by major players in information security and people who have actual engineering background.

  • So they're not vendor managers or IT maintenance people. They're people who understand architecture and software engineering and otherwise, that's been a big part of the success. Jude Shramm, our CIO is the one that's led the value streams work over the course of the past several years inside the company that has helped to drive all the savings.

  • So there's a really good bench of people around the table here to ensure that we retain what is great about both companies and execute a seamless conversion and get the costs out as we need to.

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • And now that the dust has settled a little bit, one challenge that you think you're really going to have to gear up for that you -- it's more in your face and you may be underappreciated or are you just like, hey, this is -- we're going to have to do this right and one positive that you said, hey, this might be better than we thought.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think the challenge is, we're set -- Comerica had a public consent order attached to the trust business and specifically a conversion they did there. I would tell you that's -- I don't perceive that to be like a challenge in the sense that I'm worried about being able to get it done, but it's clearly priority 1 is ensuring that we have the trust business on stable footing, as part of getting this conversion done because we like the businesses that they're in.

  • I think they're quite complementary to the segment of the market that we serve in our custody business. But we got to get that work done expeditiously and well. So that remains a big point number one.

  • I think the thing that I'm probably most optimistic about is, we have a lot of former Coamericans here. They have a lot of former Fifth Third-ers there. They seem to have done well in both places. I can speak to the former Comericans that are here. They've been big parts of the way that we've driven the growth in the expansion markets. They have leadership roles here in payments and have led businesses like business banking, corporate social responsibility.

  • Otherwise, like so I'm most excited about our ability to unlock the Comerica bankers now that we can provide a broader funding base, and there isn't competition from an investment perspective on needing to invest in sort of LFI level control environment. That is the thing that -- the more I talk to folks, the more you see, wow, there are a lot of good ideas here. There are places where we have the ability to grow that they just -- there was an inherent limit because they were trying to balance more priorities than we'll need to balance as a combined company.

  • Mike Mayo - Analyst

  • So it sounds like some ex-frenemies will become colleagues that have worked together before.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, that's right. From frenemies to friends again, maybe. There we go.

  • Operator

  • Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Just at Barclays, following the Tricolor announcement, you mentioned that you were going to take a step back, look at the processes to see if you could have done anything differently. And I'm just curious what you discovered and that you need to make any changes.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks for asking that. Greg will give you some detail there.

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. So obviously, a lot of time given the circumstances that we've spent, while we still think it's an isolated event, we treated it with the seriousness that it deserves. We completed a comprehensive review of that entire asset back finance portfolio, traced the cash flows, collateral movements in and out of our facilities and then into securitizations. The work included a full inspection of our processes, our procedures, our policies, underwriting, portfolio monitoring, it was an end-to-end inspection by our leaders.

  • We've identified a couple of things that we'll start to implement from an enhancement standpoint, and we'll continue to do that, and we'll continue to reinforce some of the ongoing monitoring that needs to take place in that space.

  • Couple of things I would point out is 92% of the ABF exposure through bankruptcy remote SPV securitization structures. They have non-recourse; they're self-liquidating. They're underwritten through the structure, through advance rates to a BBB or better, so investment-grade type of underwriting. We also engaged a third-party firm to validate 120,000 vehicle identification number of bins tied to our consumer collateral or our loan collateral.

  • The results were conclusive, 99.99% of events have been verified as valid with only two exceptions. We're tracking those two exceptions down.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • As in two bins, two cars.

  • Greg Schroeck - Executive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer

  • The overall exercise to your question, confirms that we still feel very good about the overall portfolio. This is a portfolio that's not had losses in the past in any meaningful way. Clearly, the Tricolor was a broad -- there are things that we're going to have to do a little differently going forward based on the inspection. But based on the inspection, the house-to-house service that we did, I still feel very good about the portfolio.

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. With the Comerica deal, you'll have roughly $290 billion in assets and become a Category III bank. Does that happen when the deal closes? Or is it kind of a fourth quarter average before you become Category III? And does that involve entail additional expenses and maybe risk management controls?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. We -- so at the end of last year, we've actually been going through our process for some time in terms of preparing for Category II readiness. This is something that we actually kicked off back in when we were in the process of March Madness associated with First Republic of making sure that we really understood what that path looks like.

  • And at the end of last year, we actually hired a third-party to come in and do a CAT III readiness assessment for us and to help us build out the compliance work plan as we were going to head down either or an organic path or for some reason, the transaction were to occur that would have accelerated it. So we have a good sense of what that path looks like and the costs associated with it.

  • Clearly, there's certain things we will have to do some investments in terms of enhancing some reporting capabilities, things like 2052A, the frequency of reporting and the time turnaround of that reporting accelerates from a T+10 reporting to T+2. There's some new credit reporting that we'll have to do. But all of those things are known and very manageable.

  • What's interesting about this process is that there are a number of different CAT III requirements, and they're actually all discussed with regulators and agreed to the conversion, and compliance timeline has agreed with regulators on a line item by line item perspective on the individual requirements. 2052A reporting being one of the first.

  • So those are all things that we're working through right now, all contemplated in the financial numbers that we've provided. And from a cost perspective will be manageable for us.

  • Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • So just wanted to make sure that we're taking away the right message from a funding strategy perspective. Tim, it really struck me when you did the Comerica announcement conference call that you said that it was funding that was really preventing them from fully realizing their growth potential.

  • And then Bryan noted a 30% deposit beta from here. As we think about the go forward, both from a stand-alone company and together, should we now think, okay, the priority has to be retaining the funding, and that's more of a priority growth in deposits and retention of deposits is a bigger priority over over-price. And by the way, that's okay because the power of the combined NII from both the bigger balance sheet and the purchase accounting will supersede sort of the lower reprice?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, great question. No, I think I would say that the priority here is replacing the funding and then supporting the right level of growth beyond that. We have run at a loan-to-deposit ratio that's a little below where we need to be, so that we are in good shape in terms of being able to provide some excess funding.

  • But I talked a lot about the fact that we price a 60-40, like living inside a 60-40 mix. We like balance. We like diversification. And that's going to mean that we have to grow retail deposits at a rate that will allow us to essentially remix out of some higher-cost corporate cash and other funding sources, IntraFi deposits and otherwise over time that are on Comerica's balance sheet and into a more retail heavy mix.

  • The good news is, we have -- like what I would argue is the best retail deposit engine in the retail bank sector and the tailwind of all these branches in the Southeast, plus what we're going to be able to do just leveraging Comerica's existing branches, where they haven't done any consumer deposit marketing, as I understand it, for over a decade, okay?

  • And we bring in the analytic engine and a J.D. Power award-winning product set that will hit those branches day 1 and make them more productive, plus then the network benefit that you get out of the build-out in Texas. That really is meant to provide a catalyst where retail deposit growth exceeds the overall balance sheet growth and allows us to drive a remixing.

  • Bryan Preston - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Erika, I'll I would think about it for you guys in two horizons. One which is, where do we want to be at close of the transaction because we know things always come up around close. For example, we have shared customers in the commercial portfolio. And they have a lot of times customers pick two different banks because they want diversification. So we know that there could be a little bit of outflow around that. So we want to make sure that we have a good source of liquidity and optionality to deal with unexpected things that occur but also to help manage through the funding cost of the company.

  • From a longer-term perspective, I would tell you that the total funding cost for the combined company will be better going forward than the two individual companies. And you can look at things as simple as our cost of interest-bearing liabilities versus their cost of interest-bearing liabilities, we are 50 basis points, 60 basis points better in total on them, and it's back to the mix of our deposits.

  • So yes, we're going to lean a little bit more on retail right now because we also know that we are able to manage two very strong and profitable long-term retail deposit costs. We just want to be in a good position from a short-term perspective to make sure that we're ready to navigate, obviously, an uncertain environment and from an economic perspective, between the end of the year and close at the beginning of next year and to make sure that we're positioned for anything unexpected that could come up as part of the close.

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And my second question, and I realize we're moving -- you were closer to 10:15. This is for you, Tim, and maybe if Jamie is also in the room since he's head of integration. So clearly, the financial benefits are obvious. You talked very passionately about the cultural and strategic fit. We have seen in the past some of the larger deals that have been announced previously been hampered by sort of poor back-end execution, right, in terms of how they approached the tech integration.

  • And we haven't talked much about that, Tim and Jamie. I'm just wondering if you could maybe give us a sense of your approach for the back end and tech integration and how you would prevent that in terms of prevent like slippage, in terms of expenses or delay in expense synergies and all of that, that has have hampered peers?

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, great question. You're going to have to make do with me because Jamie is so focused on the back-end conversion that he's off working with the teams, but he will be at BAB, Erika. So I would encourage you to ask the same question then and you'll get the benefit of his answer.

  • The conversion is the moment of truth because it's the first thing that you do that has a very material impact on customers if you get it wrong, right? And the work that has to be done on making sure that the receiving environment is clean and that you're not making any changes so that there aren't any unanticipated hiccups doing the data mapping, so that you are able to ensure that what you convert populates correctly and then managing the customer experience.

  • I mean, simple things like so many customers use biometrics today to log-in and not everybody knows their password. And there's a by-product when you ask them to download a new app and tell them their user name and password ported over, you run into issues. So there is an incredible amount of detailed work that has to get done just on the mapping and the communication and then the pre-conversion actions that you can take to ensure that the conversions themselves go smoothly.

  • And coupled then with I think, having the right level of staffing on hand, whether it's in the branches and the call centers or otherwise, so that you don't have a situation where something unanticipated comes up. Like maybe a customer's mobile phone number is out of date and when they go in to change it, it locks them out of using Zelle for two weeks or something like that. Those are the sorts of things that you have to be in front of to make sure the conversions go well.

  • The one thing that I will tell you is maybe different here than some of the other larger deals where there have been issues is there is no debate about which technology platforms we're going to use. So the -- there is not going to be a scenario where we go through and try to pick the best of both companies and then reintegrate them.

  • The Comerica customers and business are going to move from the Comerica platform to Fifth Third with the exception of the National Dealer Services business, where we don't have a platform. It's the reason we had to get out of the business five years ago. We have always liked it. We just -- we didn't have the scale to be able to support the platforms.

  • So we know our environment and should be in a substantially better position because we're not doing systems integration and conversion on top of one another. It's just a conversion exercise. And they don't have -- there's not a single platform they have that we haven't converted before in terms of the key platforms. And in many cases, they're on the same platforms that we are.

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Perfect. And thank you Greg, for all o that color. It's never fun when you're popular, but I think investors appreciated the color.

  • Timothy Spence - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't know. It's good for people like Greg to feel it. It feels like they're popular once in a while, right? (multiple speakers) Yes. I went through middle school, profoundly unpopular too. And the second, I got a moment in the sun, I felt pretty good about it. I think that was -- on that note, we probably should wrap it up.

  • Matt Curoe - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes, I think so. And so thank you. And thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department for any follow-up questions. Rob, you may now disconnect the call.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.