Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q1 2025 Fifth Third Bancorp earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Curoe, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

感謝您的支持。我叫凱特，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加五三銀行 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Matt Curoe。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's first quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, our Chairman, CEO and President, Tim Spence; and CFO, Bryan Preston will provide an overview of our first quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call. Please review the cautionary statements on our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Fifth Third 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天上午，我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tim Spence；兼財務長 Bryan Preston 將概述我們的第一季業績和展望。我們的首席信貸官 Greg Schroeck 也參加了電話會議的問答環節。請查看我們資料中的警告聲明，可以在我們的收益報告和介紹中找到。

These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of April 17, 2025, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions. With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

這些資料包含有關使用非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標和與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 結果對帳的資訊以及有關 Fifth Third 績效的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅截至 2025 年 4 月 17 日有效，Fifth Third 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。在提姆和布萊恩發表準備好的發言後，我們將開始提問。說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給提姆。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. At Fifth Third, we believe great banks distinguish themselves, not by how they navigate benign environments, but rather by how they navigate on certain ones. I say this at the start of every investor communication, but it is particularly relevant today.

謝謝，馬特，大家早安。在 Fifth Third，我們相信優秀的銀行之所以能脫穎而出，不是因為它們如何在良性環境中生存，而是因為它們如何在特定環境中生存。我在與每個投資者溝通開始時都會說這一點，但今天尤其如此。

I'm very pleased with our performance this past quarter and confident that we are positioned to deliver stability, profitability, and growth in that order in the many potential scenarios that could play out over the remainder of the year.

我對我們上個季度的表現非常滿意，並相信我們有能力在今年剩餘時間內可能出現的許多潛在情況下實現穩定、盈利和增長。

This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.71 or $0.73 excluding certain items outlined on page 2 of the release, exceeding consensus estimates. We grew PPNR by 5% year over year and achieved an adjusted return on equity of 11.2%. We grew tangible book value per share 15% over the prior year despite the 10-year treasury rate being unchanged.

今天上午，我們報告每股收益為 0.71 美元或 0.73 美元（不包括新聞稿第 2 頁概述的某些項目），超過了普遍預期。我們的 PPNR 年成長了 5%，調整後的股本回報率達到了 11.2%。儘管 10 年期公債利率保持不變，但我們每股有形帳面價值比上年增長了 15%。

And on a trailing 12-month basis, our return on assets, return on equity, and efficiency ratio remain among the best of our peers. In the quarter, we sustained our positive momentum on loan growth, net interest margins, net charge-off rate, and operating leverage.

在過去 12 個月中，我們的資產回報率、股本回報率和效率比率仍然位居同業之首。本季度，我們保持了貸款成長、淨利差、淨核銷率和經營槓桿的積極勢頭。

Total loans grew 3% year over year, driven by strong middle market C&I production, a pickup in leasing activity and balanced growth across consumer secured lending categories. Our charge-off rate was stable following sequential improvement over the second half of last year.

受中端市場 C&I 產量強勁、租賃活動回升以及消費者擔保貸款類別均衡成長的推動，貸款總額較去年同期成長 3%。我們的沖銷率自去年下半年以來連續改善，目前保持穩定。

Core deposits were stable, even with our continued progress on deposit costs, supported by 2% total household growth and 5% growth in the Southeast. NII grew faster than our balance sheet grew at 4% over the prior year as net interest margins expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter. Despite market-related impacts to our capital markets business, adjusted fees, excluding securities gains and losses, were up 1% versus the prior year.

儘管我們的存款成本持續下降，但核心存款仍保持穩定，這得益於家庭總存款成長 2% 和東南部地區成長 5%。由於淨利差連續第五個季度擴大，NII 的成長速度高於我們資產負債表的成長速度，即去年同期 4%。儘管市場對我們的資本市場業務產生了影響，但不包括證券損益的調整後費用仍比上年增長了 1%。

Commercial payments grew 6%, driven by new line in our managed services offerings and wealth and asset management revenue grew 7%, supported by 10% growth in AUM.

商業支付成長了 6%，這得益於我們託管服務產品的新系列，而財富和資產管理收入成長了 7%，這得益於 AUM 成長了 10%。

Continued progress on our value streams and disciplined expense management held expenses flat versus the prior year. And we again delivered positive operating leverage. We are pleased that our first quarter results reflected the strength of our franchise.

我們的價值流持續進步和嚴格的費用管理使費用與前一年相比相當。我們再次實現了正的經營槓桿。我們很高興看到第一季的業績反映了我們特許經營的實力。

But today, we are focused on what is in front of us as opposed to what is behind. In my annual letter to shareholders in February, I wrote that the global economy is a complex adaptive system and the complex systems react to change in unexpected ways.

但今天，我們關注的是眼前的事情，而不是過去的事。我在二月致股東的年度信中寫道，全球經濟是一個複雜的自適應系統，而複雜系統對變化的反應方式是意想不到的。

Despite our best efforts to understand the implications, today we cannot predict what the final tariff policies will look like, much less with the second order effects on economic activity, fiscal policy, and monetary policy will be.

儘管我們盡了最大努力去理解其影響，但今天我們無法預測最終的關稅政策會是什麼樣子，更不用說對經濟活動、財政政策和貨幣政策的二階影響了。

What we can do is to ensure that our business mix is more naturally resilient run our balance sheet defensively, and retain optionality, so that we can react quickly as conditions change. If C&I loan demand softens in the second half of the year, we have more avenues than most to manage our balance sheet.

我們能做的是確保我們的業務組合更具自然彈性，防禦性地運行我們的資產負債表，並保留可選性，以便我們能夠在情況發生變化時迅速做出反應。如果下半年商業和工業貸款需求減弱，我們將有比大多數人更多的途徑來管理我們的資產負債表。

Our diverse national and origination platforms give us flexibility on how and where to generate loan growth. And our multiyear investments in Southeast branches and growth in commercial payments will continue to produce granular operational deposit funding. We believe credit concentration limits boost resiliency and the quality of client selection.

我們多樣化的國家和發起平台使我們能夠靈活地決定如何以及在何處實現貸款成長。我們對東南分行的多年投資和商業支付的成長將繼續產生細粒度的營運存款資金。我們相信信貸集中度限制可以提高彈性和客戶選擇的品質。

And as a result, we are well diversified across asset classes, industries, and regions. We are clear-eyed about risks when they emerge and have been consistent about moving proactively to ensure charge-offs are well reserved before they materialize.

因此，我們在資產類別、行業和地區方面實現了多元化。當風險出現時，我們能清楚地認識到風險，並始終積極採取行動，確保在風險成為現實之前就做好沖銷準備。

At 2.7%, our ACL coverage ratio is among the highest of all our peers. On fee income, our focus on diversification and recurring versus transactional revenue sources should help to mitigate the potential for continued capital markets disruption. Five different fee categories each contributed more than 10% of total fee income in the first quarter.

我們的 ACL 覆蓋率為 2.7%，在所有同業中名列前茅。在費用收入方面，我們專注於多樣化和經常性收入來源而非交易收入來源，這應該有助於減輕資本市場持續混亂的可能性。第一季度，五種不同的費用類別各自貢獻了總費用收入的 10% 以上。

Finally, we manage our business day to day in a fashion that maximizes optionality. We define multiple paths to achieving our revenue targets, model a broad range of scenarios, including low growth, stagflation and recession scenarios, and where options to deliver sustainable profitability.

最後，我們以最大化可選性的方式管理我們的日常業務。我們定義了實現收入目標的多種途徑，模擬了廣泛的情景，包括低成長、滯脹和衰退情景，以及實現可持續獲利的選擇。

We always plan to keep a tight lid on expenses because it is easier to invest more in the stronger-than-expected environment than it is to cut in a weaker-than-expected environment. Bryan will provide more detail on our outlook for the remainder of the year, but I would like to have a few points.

我們始終計劃嚴格控制開支，因為在強於預期的環境中增加投資比在弱於預期的環境中削減投資更容易。布萊恩將提供有關今年剩餘時間展望的更多細節，但我想談幾點。

First, we expect to achieve record NII within our existing guidance rates even if there are no rate cuts and no further loan growth. Second, we can deliver full year positive operating leverage even if the capital markets do not recover, given the expense levers we have at our disposal. Third, if the forward curve is realized, we expect to grow tangible book value per share by 10% for the full year from AOCI accretion alone, in addition to the growth we will generate from earnings.

首先，即使不降息且貸款不再成長，我們也有望在現有指導利率範圍內實現創紀錄的NII。其次，即使資本市場沒有復甦，考慮到我們掌握的費用槓桿，我們也可以實現全年的營運槓桿。第三，如果遠期曲線得以實現，我們預計，除了獲利帶來的成長外，僅憑 AOCI 的成長，全年每股有形帳面價值就將成長 10%。

Last, our capital priorities continue to be funding organic growth, paying a strong dividend and share repurchases in that order.

最後，我們的資本重點仍然是資助有機成長、支付豐厚的股利和股票回購。

Before I hand it over to Bryan, I want to say thank you to our employees for all you do and for your dedication to our clients. Your commitment to getting 1% better every day is the reason Fifth Third was recently recognized by Ethisphere, as one of the world's most ethical companies by Fortune, as one of America's most innovative companies by Euromoney, as the best US private bank, and by J.D. Power as number one in retail customer satisfaction in Florida for the second consecutive year. I love being part of your team.

在將工作交給布萊恩之前，我想對我們的員工表示感謝，感謝你們所做的一切以及對客戶的奉獻。正是因為您致力於每天進步 1%，Fifth Third 才得以連續第二年獲得 Ethisphere 的認可、被《財富》雜誌評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一、被《歐洲貨幣》評為美國最具創新精神的公司之一、被 J.D. Power 評為佛羅裡達州零售客戶滿意度第一名。我很高興能成為你們團隊的一員。

With that, Bryan will provide more detail on the quarter and our outlook.

布萊恩將提供有關本季和我們展望的更多細節。

Thanks, Tim, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. Our first quarter results demonstrated the ongoing strength and momentum of our company. Adjusted revenue increased 3% year over year as our well-positioned balance sheet led to continued margin expansion driven by robust loan growth, continued fixed rate asset repricing, and proactive liability management.

謝謝，提姆，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們第一季的業績證明了公司持續的實力和發展勢頭。調整後營收年增 3%，因為我們的資產負債表狀況良好，在貸款強勁成長、固定利率資產持續重新定價和積極主動的負債管理的推動下，利潤率持續擴大。

The revenue performance, combined with our ongoing expense discipline, resulted in a 5% increase in pre-provision net revenue and 175 basis points of positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis compared to the first quarter of last year.

良好的收入表現加上我們持續的支出控制，使得撥備前淨收入與去年第一季相比增長了 5%，調整後的正營業槓桿率提高了 175 個基點。

Our core deposit funded balance sheet and diversified revenue sources provide us with flexibility and resiliency to deliver stable through-the-cycle results. Our strong profitability allowed us to maintain our CET1 ratio at 10.5%, consistent with our near-term target, while growing our period-end loans by $2.4 billion, executing a $225 million share repurchase and absorbing the 7 basis point impact from the final CECL phase-in.

我們的核心存款資助資產負債表和多元化的收入來源為我們提供了靈活性和彈性，從而能夠在整個週期內提供穩定的績效。我們強勁的獲利能力使我們能夠將 CET1 比率維持在 10.5%，這與我們的近期目標一致，同時將期末貸款增加了 24 億美元，執行了 2.25 億美元的股票回購，並吸收了最終 CECL 逐步實施帶來的 7 個基點的影響。

As Tim mentioned, the tangible book value per share, inclusive of the impact of AOCI, grew 15% from the prior year despite the 10-year treasury rate being effectively unchanged.

正如蒂姆所提到的，儘管 10 年期公債利率實際上沒有變化，但包括 AOCI 的影響在內的每股有形帳面價值比上一年增長了 15%。

The strategy in our investment portfolio to focus on investments with known cash flows through bullet and locked out securities will continue to contribute to tangible book value per share growth as these positions total par.

我們的投資組合策略是專注於透過子彈證券和鎖定證券進行已知現金流的投資，這將繼續促進每股有形帳面價值的成長，因為這些部位總計票面價值。

Net interest income continued its positive momentum with NII flat sequentially despite two fewer days in the quarter and net interest margin expanded by 6 basis points. Proactive balance sheet management resulted in a 20 basis point reduction and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities sequentially. These actions, along with the continued loan growth and the repricing benefit on fixed rate assets more than offset the decrease in yield on our floating rate assets.

淨利息收入繼續保持積極勢頭，儘管本季度的借貸天數減少了兩天，但淨利息收入仍與上一季度持平，淨息差擴大了 6 個基點。積極的資產負債表管理導致計息負債成本較上月下降 20 個基點。這些舉措，加上貸款的持續成長和固定利率資產的重新定價收益，足以抵銷浮動利率資產收益率的下降。

Loan growth also continued positive momentum in the first quarter. Average loans increased by 3%, the largest sequential growth in nearly three years and period-end loan growth grew by 2%. Commercial loans grew 3% on a period-end basis and 4% on an average basis compared to the fourth quarter, driven by continued strength in production and middle market lending across our regions, led by Western Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati.

第一季貸款成長也延續了積極勢頭。平均貸款成長3%，為近三年來最大季增幅，期末貸款成長率為2%。商業貸款在期末增長了 3%，與第四季度相比平均增長了 4%，這得益於我們各地區生產和中端市場貸款持續強勁增長，其中以西密西根、喬治亞和辛辛那提為首。

Utilization improved by about 1 point to 37% sequentially. Utilization has continued to increase slowly during the first half of April. Consumer loans were up 1% on a period-end basis and 2% on an average basis from the prior quarter, led by continued strength in secured lending products, such as auto and home equity lending.

利用率比上一季提高了約 1 個百分點，達到 37%。四月上半月利用率持續緩慢上升。消費貸款在期末上漲了 1%，比上一季平均上漲了 2%，這主要得益於汽車和房屋淨值貸款等擔保貸款產品的持續走強。

Shifting to deposits. Average core deposits decreased 2% sequentially, driven primarily by normal seasonality in commercial. Our strong liquidity profile continues to provide us the flexibility to actively manage our overall funding costs.

轉向存款。平均核心存款較上季下降 2%，主要受商業正常季節性影響。我們強大的流動性狀況繼續為我們提供靈活性，以積極管理我們的整體融資成本。

Interest-bearing core deposit costs were 2.39% in the first quarter, down 25 basis points from the fourth quarter representing a core deposit beta in the low-60s. Demand deposit balances as a percent of core deposits improved slightly to 25% during the quarter. Demand balances were down 1% on an average basis and flat on a period-end basis compared to the prior quarter.

第一季計息核心存款成本為 2.39%，較第四季下降 25 個基點，核心存款貝他係數處於 60% 出頭。本季度，活期存款餘額佔核心存款的百分比小幅上升至 25%。與上一季相比，需求餘額平均下降 1%，期末持平。

We believe this balance level will be relatively stable over the near term. We ended the quarter with full Category 1 LCR compliance at 127% and our loan to core deposit ratio was 75%, up 2% from the prior quarter. Our focus remains on prudently managing total funding costs, while maintaining a strong liquidity position.

我們相信，短期內這一平衡水準將相對穩定。本季末，我們的 LCR 完全符合第 1 類要求，達到 127%，貸款與核心存款比率為 75%，比上一季上升了 2%。我們的重點仍是審慎管理總融資成本，同時維持強勁的流動性狀況。

Our investments in Southeast branches will add momentum in gathering low-cost, stable retail deposits. This approach will continue to provide us with the flexibility needed to manage uncertainty and to deliver a record 2025 NII despite the volatile environment.

我們對東南分行的投資將為吸收低成本、穩定的零售存款增添動力。這種方法將繼續為我們提供管理不確定性所需的靈活性，並在動盪的環境中實現創紀錄的 2025 年國家資訊基礎指數。

Moving on to fees. Highlighted on page 2 of our release, our reported results were impacted by the valuation of the Visa total return swap. Excluding the impacts of the swap and securities gains and losses, adjusted non-interest income for the first quarter increased 1% compared to the same quarter last year, driven by growth in wealth and commercial payments.

繼續討論費用。我們在新聞稿第 2 頁強調指出，我們的報告結果受到 Visa 總回報掉期估值的影響。剔除掉期和證券損益的影響，第一季調整後非利息收入較去年同期成長 1%，主要得益於財富和商業支付的成長。

In wealth, fees grew 7% over the prior year to $172 million due to $6 billion of AUM growth and increased transactional activity at Fifth Third Securities. Commercial payments increased 6% year over year to $153 million, driven by net fee equivalent growth, which was up 8%.

在財富方面，由於五三證券的資產管理規模增加 60 億美元且交易活動增加，費用較上年增長 7%，達到 1.72 億美元。商業支付年增 6%，達到 1.53 億美元，這得益於淨費用等值成長 8%。

Managed services and new line provided over half of this growth. Capital markets fees declined by 7% from the year ago period, primarily due to a slowdown in loan syndications and M&A advisory revenue, given the increased volatility and economic uncertainty. The securities losses of $9 million included a loss of $4 million from the mark-to-market impact of our non-qualified deferred compensation plan, which is offset in compensation expense.

託管服務和新線路貢獻了這一增長的一半以上。資本市場費用較去年同期下降了 7%，主要原因是由於波動性和經濟不確定性增加，貸款銀團和併購諮詢收入放緩。900 萬美元的證券損失包括我們非合格遞延薪酬計劃的按市價計價影響造成的 400 萬美元損失，該損失在薪酬費用中被抵消。

Moving to expenses. Adjusted non-interest expense was flat compared to the year ago quarter and increased 7% sequentially, slightly below our prior expectations. As is always the case in the first quarter, -- the sequential comparison is impacted by seasonal items associated with the timing of compensation awards, and timing of payroll taxes.

轉向開支。調整後的非利息支出與去年同期持平，較上季成長 7%，略低於我們先前的預期。與第一季的情況一樣，連續比較受到與薪資獎勵時間和工資稅時間相關的季節性項目的影響。

The previously mentioned deferred compensation mark-to-market reduced expenses by $4 million for the quarter compared to a $7 million benefit in the prior quarter and an $11 million increase to expenses in the year ago quarter.

前面提到的遞延薪酬以市價計算使本季的支出減少了 400 萬美元，而上一季的收益為 700 萬美元，去年同期的支出則增加了 1,100 萬美元。

Excluding the impact of the deferred comp mark-to-market, year-over-year expenses increased 1% as revenue-related compensation expense and ongoing savings generated by our value stream efficiency programs offset our continued investments in technology, branches, and sales personnel.

排除遞延補償按市價計算的影響，由於與收入相關的補償費用和我們的價值流效率計劃產生的持續節省抵消了我們對技術、分支機構和銷售人員的持續投資，因此同比支出增加了 1%。

Shifting to credit. The net charge-off ratio was 46 basis points at the lower end of our expectations for the quarter and flat sequentially. Commercial charge-offs were 35 basis points, up 3 basis points sequentially. Consumer charge-offs were 63 basis points, down 5 basis points, primarily due to seasonal improvement in credit performance in auto. Our NPA ratio increased 10 basis points sequentially to 81 basis points, primarily driven by two ABL credits in our C&I portfolio.

轉向信貸。淨沖銷率為 46 個基點，處於我們對本季預期的低端，與上一季持平。商業沖銷為 35 個基點，比上一季增加 3 個基點。消費者沖銷額為 63 個基點，下降了 5 個基點，主要原因是汽車信貸表現的季節性改善。我們的不良資產比率環比增加 10 個基點，達到 81 個基點，主要受我們商業和工業投資組合中的兩項 ABL 信貸的推動。

The CRE portfolio continues to perform well with total CRE NPAs declining from 46 basis points to 38 basis points. including only 7 basis points of NPA in our non-owner-occupied portfolio. In solar lending, our NPAs decreased by over 50% primarily due to our work to support customers where installers have gone out of business.

CRE 投資組合持續表現良好，CRE NPA 總額從 46 個基點下降至 38 個基點。包括我們非自住房產組合中僅有 7 個基點的不良資產。在太陽能貸款方面，我們的不良資產減少了 50% 以上，這主要歸功於我們為安裝商倒閉的客戶提供支援。

For these borrowers, we assisted them in getting their solar installation projects completed, and these loans are now current with sustained payment history. For the second quarter in a row, commercial criticized assets decreased with the $20 million reduction bringing criticized levels to their lowest level in the past five quarters.

對於這些借款人，我們協助他們完成了太陽能安裝項目，這些貸款目前已具備持續的還款記錄。商業批評資產連續第二個季度減少，減少了 2000 萬美元，使批評水平降至過去五個季度以來的最低水平。

Additionally, early-stage delinquencies, 30 to 89 days past due increased just 6 basis points and remained near the lowest levels we have experienced over the last decade. Our portfolio remains diversified across industries and geographies. Despite some increases in NPAs, given the impact of the rate environment and economic uncertainty, we have not seen broad-based weakening trends in individual industries or geographies.

此外，早期拖欠率（逾期 30 至 89 天）僅增加了 6 個基點，仍接近過去十年來我們經歷的最低水準。我們的投資組合保持跨行業和跨地區的多元化。儘管不良資產增加​​，但考慮到利率環境和經濟不確定性的影響，我們並未看到個別產業或地區出現普遍的疲軟趨勢。

Our provision expense for the quarter resulted in a $38 million build in our allowance for credit losses. This build was primarily attributable to continued growth in period-end loans and a deterioration in Moody's macroeconomic scenarios.

本季我們的撥備支出導致我們的信用損失準備金增加了 3,800 萬美元。這種成長主要歸因於期末貸款的持續成長以及穆迪宏觀經濟情景的惡化。

These increases were partially offset by improvement in the overall risk profile of the portfolio as indicated by the reduction in criticized assets and the previously mentioned reduction in NPAs in our solar lending portfolio. Our ACL coverage ratio was 2.07%, down 1 basis point sequentially. We made no changes to our scenario weightings during the quarter.

這些成長被投資組合整體風險狀況的改善所部分抵消，這體現在我們的太陽能貸款組合中不良資產的減少和前面提到的不良資產的減少。我們的 ACL 覆蓋率為 2.07%，季減 1 個基點。本季我們沒有對情境權重做出任何改變。

Moving to capital. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.5%, exceeding our buffered minimum of 7.7% and consistent with our near-term target. Our pro forma CET1 ratio, including the AOCI impact of the securities portfolio is 8.3% up 52 basis points year over year.

移居首都。本季末，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.5%，超過了 7.7% 的緩衝最低水平，並且與我們的近期目標一致。我們的備考 CET1 比率（包括證券投資組合的 AOCI 影響）為 8.3%，較去年同期上升 52 個基點。

We anticipate continued improvement in the unrealized losses in our securities portfolio, given that approximately 63% of the fixed rate securities in our AFS portfolio are in bullet or lockout structures, which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations.

我們預計，我們的證券投資組合中的未實現損失將繼續改善，因為我們的 AFS 投資組合中約 63% 的固定利率證券採用子彈式或鎖定結構，這為我們的主要現金流預期提供了高度確定性。

As Tim said, assuming the forward curve is realized, tangible book value per share should grow by about 10% for the full year before considering any future earnings as the AOCI related to the securities losses will accrue back into equity. During the quarter, our $225 million share repurchase reduced our share count by 5.2 million shares.

正如蒂姆所說，假設遠期曲線得以實現，那麼在考慮任何未來收益之前，每股有形賬面價值全年應該增長約 10%，因為與證券損失相關的 AOCI 將重新累積到股權中。本季度，我們回購了 2.25 億美元的股票，導致股票數量減少了 520 萬股。

Moving to our current outlook. Despite the uncertain environment, we remain confident in our ability to achieve record NII and full year positive operating leverage. We expect full year NII to increase 5% to 6%, consistent with our guide in January.

轉向我們當前的展望。儘管環境不確定，我們仍然有信心實現創紀錄的淨利息收入和全年正營運槓桿。我們預計全年 NII 將成長 5% 至 6%，與我們 1 月的預測一致。

The outlook uses the forward curve at the start of April, which assumes a 25 basis point rate cuts in June, September, and December. Due to the resiliency of our balance sheet, we would expect to achieve record NII and achieve our full year guide with no further loan growth and no interest rate cuts.

該展望採用了 4 月初的遠期曲線，假設 6 月、9 月和 12 月利率分別下調 25 個基點。由於我們的資產負債表具有彈性，我們預計在貸款不再成長、利率不再降低的情況下，實現創紀錄的淨利息收入 (NII) 並實現全年目標。

Given our quarter-end loan balances, we now expect full year average total loans to be up 4% to 5% compared to 2024, with the increase primarily driven by loan production and line utilization in C&I combined with the continued growth in auto loans.

鑑於我們季度末的貸款餘額，我們現在預計全年平均貸款總額將比 2024 年增長 4% 至 5%，增長主要得益於 C&I 的貸款生產和線路利用率，以及汽車貸款的持續增長。

We are assuming that the cash position, securities portfolio and commercial revolver utilization all remain relatively stable through the remainder of 2025. Full year adjusted noninterest income is expected to be up 1% to 3% as continued economic uncertainty has slowed down capital markets activity.

我們假設現金狀況、證券投資組合和商業循環信貸利用率在 2025 年剩餘時間內均保持相對穩定。由於持續的經濟不確定性減緩了資本市場活動，預計全年調整後非利息收入將增加 1% 至 3%。

Wealth and asset management revenues are also impacted by the recent sell-off in equities. Commercial payments revenue is growing as expected and its technology-led product offerings continue to ramp from growth and new relationships. As a result of lower customer activity, we expect to manage full year adjusted non-interest expense to be up just 2% to 3% compared to 2024.

財富和資產管理收入也受到近期股票拋售的影響。商業支付收入正按預期增長，其以技術為主導的產品供應也因成長和新關係而持續成長。由於客戶活動減少，我們預計全年調整後非利息支出與 2024 年相比僅成長 2% 至 3%。

Our expense outlook assumes no change to the accelerated branch openings in the high-growth Southeast markets and continuing sales force additions in middle market, commercial payments, and wealth to increase our production capacity to support our strategic growth objectives. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue to be up 4% to 5% and PPNR to grow in the 6% to 7% range and positive operating leverage of 150 basis points to 200 basis points.

我們的費用前景假設在高成長的東南市場加速開設分公司以及在中端市場、商業支付和財富領域持續增加銷售隊伍以增加我們的生產能力來支持我們的策略成長目標的策略不變。整體而言，我們的預期是全年調整後營收將成長 4% 至 5%，PPNR 將成長 6% 至 7%，正營運槓桿將達到 150 個基點至 200 個基點。

Moving to credit. We still expect 2025 net charge-offs to be in the 40 basis point to 49 basis point range. The timing of charge-offs for individual credits may impact a particular quarter, but our full year expectations remain consistent with our January guide. Given economic uncertainty and volatility in projected economic scenarios, we will no longer be guiding on provision bills.

轉向信用。我們仍預期 2025 年淨沖銷額將在 40 個基點至 49 個基點範圍內。個人信用沖銷的時間可能會影響特定季度，但我們的全年預期與一月份的指南保持一致。鑑於預測的經濟情景中的經濟不確定性和波動性，我們將不再對撥款法案提供指引。

Moving to our outlook for the second quarter. We expect NII to be up 2% to 3% from the first quarter due to the benefits of loan growth, fixed rate asset repricing, day count and the continued management of interest-bearing liabilities costs. We expect average total loan balances to increase 1% due to the full quarter impact of the C&I production in the first quarter and continued momentum in auto.

轉向我們對第二季的展望。我們預計，受貸款成長、固定利率資產重新定價、天數計算以及對計息負債成本的持續管理等因素的影響，NII 將較第一季成長 2% 至 3%。我們預計，由於第一季工商業生產對整個季度的影響以及汽車行業的持續成長勢頭，平均總貸款餘額將增加 1%。

Excluding the impact of securities losses, we expect adjusted noninterest income to be up 2% to 6% sequentially. The wider range is due to increased economic uncertainty impacting wealth and capital markets revenue.

排除證券損失的影響，我們預計調整後非利息收入將較上季成長 2% 至 6%。範圍擴大是由於經濟不確定性增加影響了財富和資本市場收入。

We expect strength in consumer banking due to seasonally higher card spend. Second quarter adjusted non-interest expense is expected to be down 5% compared to the first quarter due to the seasonal impact from the timing of compensation awards and payroll taxes in the first quarter. We expect continued investments in technology and marketing. We expect second quarter charge-offs to again be in the 45 basis point to 49 basis point range.

由於季節性信用卡消費增加，我們預期消費者銀行業務將表現強勁。由於第一季薪資獎勵和工資稅時間的季節性影響，預計第二季調整後非利息支出將比第一季下降 5%。我們期望繼續在技術和行銷方面進行投資。我們預計第二季的沖銷額將再次處於 45 個基點至 49 個基點的範圍內。

Finally, we continue to believe granular organic loan growth represents the best use of capital to generate strong returns for our shareholders. Based on our current projected balance sheet growth, we expect to repurchase $400 million to $500 million of stock during the remainder of 2025, likely in the second half of the year. We will continue to target our CET1 ratio at 10.5% and the ultimate amount and timing of future share repurchases will be dependent on realized loan growth.

最後，我們仍然相信，精細的有機貸款成長代表資本的最佳利用方式，可以為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。根據我們目前預期的資產負債表成長，我們預計在 2025 年剩餘時間內（可能在下半年）回購價值 4 億至 5 億美元的股票。我們將繼續將 CET1 比率設定為 10.5%，未來股票回購的最終金額和時間將取決於已實現的貸款成長。

In summary, with our resilient balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, and disciplined expense and credit risk management, we expect 2025 to achieve record NII, positive operating leverage, and strong returns for our shareholders as we continue to invest for the long term. With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open up the call for Q&A.

總而言之，憑藉我們穩健的資產負債表、多元化的收入來源以及嚴謹的費用和信用風險管理，我們預計 2025 年將實現創紀錄的 NII、正營運槓桿以及為股東帶來強勁回報，因為我們將繼續進行長期投資。接下來，請容許我把時間交給馬特開始問答環節。

Thanks, Bryan. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up and then return to the queue if you have additional questions. Operator, please open the call for Q&A.

謝謝，布萊恩。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到我們今天上午的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，然後如果您還有其他問題，請返回隊列。接線員，請打開電話問答。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Tim, can you share with us your interactions with your commercial customers since obviously the changes in the economic environment and the outlook is very uncertain due to the tariffs? Can you talk to us about how uncertain your clients are? Number one.

提姆，您能否與我們分享您與商業客戶的互動，因為顯然由於關稅，經濟環境和前景發生了變化，非常不確定？您能跟我們談談您的客戶有多不確定嗎？第一。

But number two, can you also play into that are the customers, your commercial customers in a better position today because they went through the pandemic they needed to get lean during the pandemic and the lessons they learned there can be applied today as we go forward in this uncertain environment?

但第二點，您是否也可以考慮到，您的商業客戶今天處於更好的地位，因為他們經歷了疫情，他們需要在疫情期間變得精益求精，他們在那裡學到的經驗教訓可以在我們今天在這個不確定的環境中前進時應用？

Yeah. That's a great question. I wish I could say I had the crystal ball, and it's the reason we scheduled my travel the way we did. But ironically draw it, I've been in five of our regions since the Liberation Day announcements.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我希望我能說我有水晶球，這就是我們這樣安排旅行的原因。但諷刺的是，自從解放日公告發布以來，我已經去過我們五個地區。

I had the opportunity to speak with something on the order of 50 different business owners, most of which, ironically, we're in like materials, manufacturing, transportation, logistics, energy, and a few folks in automotive and health care and other sectors. I would say the magnitude of the tariff announcement caught them all by surprise, the base level, 10% import tariff wasn't surprising. It was all of the other activity.

我有機會與大約 50 位不同的企業主交談，諷刺的是，其中大多數從事材料、製造、運輸、物流、能源等行業，還有一些從事汽車、醫療保健和其他行業。我想說，關稅公告的規模讓他們所有人都感到意外，10% 的進口關稅這一基準水準並不令人意外。這是所有其他活動。

The magnitude probably split basically 50-50 between those who interpreted the announcements as a negotiating tactic and believed that we're going to settle out in a much more reasonable place that may actually give American producers better access to foreign markets and the 50% who are really nervous that the tariffs in particular, the tariffs that impact major supply chain countries, China, Vietnam, the Pacific Rim, and otherwise are going to stack at more elevated levels.

持這種觀點的人基本上各佔一半，一部分人把這些聲明解讀為一種談判策略，認為我們將在一個更合理的基礎上達成協議，這實際上可能使美國生產商更好地進入國外市場，而另一部分人則非常擔心關稅，特別是那些影響主要供應鏈國家、中國、越南、環太平洋地區等的關稅將會累積到更高的水平。

I would say, universally, their belief is that what the only way they really have to respond in the near to medium term is to push prices. So folks with international supply chains, will need to push prices to cover tariffs. They can't absorb it in margins.

我想說，普遍而言，他們的信念是，他們在中短期內真正能做出反應的唯一方法就是提高價格。因此，擁有國際供應鏈的人們需要提高價格來彌補關稅。他們無法在邊緣吸收它。

Many of them are tussling with retail distribution partners who are pressuring to absorb some or all of the cost, but they believe that because these are structural changes that manufacturers really do believe they're going to be able to push the price.

他們中的許多人正在與零售分銷合作夥伴爭奪部分或全部成本，但他們認為，由於這些是結構性變化，製造商確實相信他們能夠提高價格。

What was maybe a little bit interesting to me is that the folks that have domestic supply chains were also saying they have to move prices in the US because they're expecting that if the tariffs hold, they're going to experience volume losses in foreign markets, and they're going to need to make up. Again, they require a certain amount of gross margin dollars just to be able to cover overheads and run their businesses.

對我來說可能有點有趣的是，擁有國內供應鏈的人也表示，他們必須在美國調整價格，因為他們預計，如果關稅持續下去，他們將在國外市場遭遇銷售損失，而他們需要彌補。同樣，他們需要一定數量的毛利率才能支付管理費用並開展業務。

The other thing I would say is most of them are not waiting for the tariff rates to be finalized to start work on pricing. A lot of them require like their contracts with their distribution partners require 60-plus day price change notices and therefore, they're going to have to move.

我想說的另一件事是，他們中的大多數人並沒有等待關稅稅率最終確定就開始製定定價工作。他們中的許多人與分銷合作夥伴簽訂的合約都要求提前 60 多天發出價格變動通知，因此，他們將不得不採取行動。

I would tell you that they're probably -- the folks who are going to try to figure out how to make changes to supply chain definitely have the benefit of having had COVID as a fire drill. But the winners there, the single biggest shifts really were folks diversifying out of China and into countries like Vietnam that now have very high reciprocal tariffs or in the routing of the logistics, right?

我想告訴你，那些試圖弄清楚如何改變供應鏈的人肯定會受益於 COVID 作為消防演習。但那裡的贏家，最大的轉變實際上是人們從中國轉向越南等國家，這些國家現在有非常高的互惠關稅或在物流路線上，對嗎？

A lot of the goods came out of China and hit a port in Mexico and then were trucked over to the border. And if the broader tariff regime sticks, there really isn't going to be a way to reconfigure your supply chain to avoid it entirely.

許多貨物從中國運出，抵達墨西哥港口，然後用卡車運到邊境。如果更廣泛的關稅制度持續下去，那麼實際上就沒有辦法透過重新配置供應鏈來完全避免它。

So what a lot of them are doing is moving on price and then holding on any sort of major structural plans because the timeline required to get like a plant opened in the US or to move your production, so that you're producing Asia for Asia and the US for US and Europe for Europe is like two to three years once you make the investment before you can even get something open and then five to seven years to get a return on investment. And nobody wants to make an investment like that if they're not convinced that whatever the tariff regime is that is supporting it isn't durable yet.

因此，他們中的許多人所做的就是讓價格變動，然後擱置任何重大的結構計劃，因為在美國開設工廠或轉移生產所需的時間，以便你在亞洲為亞洲生產、在美國為美國生產、在歐洲為歐洲生產，一旦你進行投資，需要兩到三年的時間才能開始生產，然後需要五到七年的時間才能獲得投資回報。如果他們不相信支撐這項投資的關稅制度還不持久，那麼沒有人願意進行這樣的投資。

So my own view on this, I guess, the silver lining here, there wasn't a single client who indicated that they are working on layoffs like the decline in legal immigration since the beginning of the year. has meant there just aren't as many job seekers.

所以就我個人的觀點來看，我想，這裡的一線希望是，沒有一個客戶表示他們正在努力解決像今年年初以來合法移民數量下降那樣的裁員問題。這意味著求職者的數量沒有那麼多。

So I think we'll see a decline in job openings. But if our clients are any indicator, that unemployment rate may be a little bit more range bound than some of the economists are thinking. But it does feel like barring a significant change in terms of the proposal versus whatever tariffs become effective in 90 days.

所以我認為我們會看到職位空缺數量的下降。但如果我們的客戶有任何指標的話，失業率可能比一些經濟學家認為的更具區間波動性。但這確實讓人感覺像是在禁止對提案做出重大改變，而不是在 90 天內生效的任何關稅。

We're going to see inflation pick up. We're going to see growth come down, but we may see unemployment in order. So that's what I'm hearing.

我們將會看到通貨膨脹上升。我們將會看到經濟成長放緩，但失業率可能會回升。這就是我所聽到的。

Very good. Yeah. No, no, very helpful. I appreciate all the color. Maybe another -- the follow-up question. We know in this uncertain environment and should the economy slow down further, credit is always a discussion point with all the banks, not just at your organization.

非常好。是的。不，不，非常有幫助。我欣賞所有的色彩。也許還有另一個——後續問題。我們知道，在這種不確定的環境中，如果經濟進一步放緩，信貸始終是所有銀行討論的焦點，而不僅僅是貴組織。

But putting that aside for a second, if we stay in this lower growth environment, maybe there is a shallow recession or worse, what are some of the other areas aside from credit that you guys are looking at closely that you can manage to enable you to get through a slowdown more effectively than maybe in the past downturns?

但是，暫且不論這一點，如果我們繼續處於這種較低的成長環境中，也許會出現輕微的衰退或更糟的情況，那麼除了信貸之外，你們還密切關注哪些其他領域，以便能夠比過去的經濟衰退更有效地度過經濟放緩時期？

Yeah. I mean credit is number one, right? I think if you buy the, I'll call it the way some of the crowd hypothesis, I laid out earlier that the implication for monetary policy is likely that the Fed doesn't have a lot of room to move if unemployment is tethered and inflation goes up. So your deposit funding is a critical point of focus that remains a really core point of focus for us.

是的。我的意思是信譽是第一位的，對嗎？我認為，如果你接受這個假設，我會稱之為一些群體假設，我之前已經闡述過，如果失業率受到限制且通貨膨脹上升，那麼貨幣政策的含義可能是聯準會沒有太大的調整空間。因此，您的存款資金是我們關注的關鍵點，也是我們關注的核心點。

And then lastly, it's expenses, right? -- we have tried to be very deliberate, and I know we've complicated this, that we don't allow expenses to grow on the basis of market benefits. We try to keep expenses tethered because it's always easier to spend more in the event that things work out well.

最後，是費用，對嗎？ ——我們一直努力做到非常慎重，我知道我們已經把事情複雜化了，我們不允許費用在市場利益的基礎上成長。我們盡量控制開支，因為如果一切順利，花更多的錢總是比較容易。

And that's resulted in us having much lower expense growth than others, like the gains we've got there. They come from the automation that comes out of the technology that goes in from a lean manufacturing disciplines that underpin the value streams and I think as reflected in our guidance, we don't believe that it's credible to think that the capital markets will recover sufficiently to cover up the softness that we're all going to see in the first half of the year. Fees are down, expenses are going to come down as well.

這導致我們的費用成長比其他公司低得多，就像我們在那裡獲得的收益一樣。它們來自於支撐價值流的精益製造原則所帶來的技術自動化，我認為，正如我們的指導所反映的那樣，我們認為資本市場將充分復甦以掩蓋我們將在今年上半年看到的疲軟是不可信的。費用下降了，開支也會下降。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess maybe, Tim, sticking with credit, just looking to slide 10. You mentioned, I think, two ABL credits looking at sort of the sequential increase in nonperformers. Just talk to us in terms of, and I'm assuming this has nothing to do with the tariff overhang, but if you can provide some more details on those ABL loans that drove NPLs higher and -- and even if we remain in a slower growth environment, do you see more migration into NPLs, more losses coming through the C&I book based on what you've seen and the work you've done Yeah.

我想也許，提姆，堅持信用，只是希望幻燈片 10。我認為，您提到了兩項 ABL 信貸，研究的是不良貸款人數的連續增加。請與我們談談，我認為這與關稅過剩無關，但如果您可以提供一些有關那些導致不良貸款率上升的 ABL 貸款的更多細節 - 即使我們仍處於較慢的增長環境中，根據您所看到的情況和您所做的工作，您是否認為會有更多資金轉入不良貸款，C&I 賬簿上會出現更多損失？是的。

Yeah, it's Greg. I'll take that one. Thanks for the question. Obviously, something I pay a lot of attention to NPAs. As Bryan mentioned in the opening remarks.

是的，他是格雷格。我要那個。謝謝你的提問。顯然，我非常關注 NPA。正如布萊恩在開場白中提到的。

It was two credits, two ABL loans that primarily drove our NPA increase. Our ABL portfolio is a traditional ABL portfolio lending against receivables inventory and the like, we do very little over formula advances and it's very minimal.

兩筆信貸、兩筆 ABL 貸款是導致我們不良資產 (NPA) 增加的主要原因。我們的 ABL 投資組合是針對應收帳款庫存等的傳統 ABL 投資組合貸款，我們對公式預付款的運用非常少，而且數量非常少。

So we're well secured, we stay within assets. It's a portfolio that over the last 6 years, we've had very minimal loss time, like 6 basis points on average per annual loss rate, but as you know, as we work through borrowers that are experiencing financial difficulties, sometimes that means agreeing to work out plans that put these loans into nonaccrual status. However, that often leads to borrowers regaining financial stability and can ultimately lead to reduced losses.

因此，我們的安全得到充分保障，我們的資產得以保有。在過去 6 年中，我們的投資組合的損失非常小，平均每年損失率為 6 個基點，但正如你所知，當我們為遇到財務困難的借款人提供幫助時，有時這意味著同意制定計劃，將這些貸款置於非應計狀態。然而，這通常會使借款人重新獲得財務穩定，並最終減少損失。

I'll also add each of the credits in our NPA portfolio are individually evaluated, financial risk assessment has already been captured in our results through recognized charge-offs or specific reserves are included in the quarter end allowed loan credit losses.

我還要補充一點，我們對不良資產組合中的每一項信貸都進行了單獨評估，財務風險評估已經通過公認的沖銷或特定準備金體現在我們的業績中，併計入了季度末允許的貸款信貸損失。

So I'm not overly concerned with the increase. We obviously pay a lot of attention to it. But also, as Bryan mentioned, we're not changing the charge-off guide for the second quarter. We're not changing it for the year. we're going to work through these credits. We've got good visibility on about 40% of our total NPAs that we think will see resolution over the next couple of quarters.

所以我並不太擔心這種成長。我們顯然非常關注這一點。但正如布萊恩所提到的，我們不會改變第二季的沖銷指南。我們今年不會改變它。我們將努力完成這些學分。我們對約 40% 的不良資產有了清晰的了解，認為這些不良資產將在未來幾季內解決。

So we're making good progress. Bryan mentioned our criticized assets are down for the second consecutive quarter. That tends to be a pipeline into NPAs. So given current environment, I'm not seeing anything that would lead me to be concerned that we're going to continue to see increases in this NPA portfolio. And as I said, we got about 40% visibility on the NPA portfolio that we think is resolved in a relatively short period of time.

所以我們正在取得良好的進展。布萊恩提到，我們受到批評的資產連續第二季下降。這往往是一條通往不良資產的管道。因此，考慮到當前的環境，我沒有看到任何會讓我擔心我們會繼續看到不良資產組合增加的情況。正如我所說，我們對不良資產組合的可見度約為 40%，我們認為這些問題將在相對較短的時間內解決。

The overall portfolio remains in excellent shape. As Bryan mentioned our criticized assets, 87% of our criticized assets, including NPAs, are current, so I feel good about that. Our consumer portfolio continues to perform very well. That charge-offs, 30- to 89-day delinquencies, 90-day delinquencies, NPA, all on the consumer book down for the quarter. So overall, I feel good about the overall health and performance of the portfolio.

整體投資組合仍保持良好狀態。正如布萊恩所提到的我們的受批評資產，包括不良資產在內的 87% 的受批評資產都是當前的，所以我對此感到滿意。我們的消費者產品組合持續表現良好。這些沖銷、30 至 89 天的拖欠、90 天的拖欠、不良資產，都記入了本季的消費者帳簿。所以總的來說，我對投資組合的整體健康狀況和表現感到滿意。

That's helpful. And maybe while we have you, Greg, I guess, just also address the solar panel lending business, where things stand there? Any policy risks that you see? I mean it comes up as an idiosyncratic risk factor for Fifth Third from the time. And again, just give us an update on where that stands, both on how you're thinking about growth in that book as well as credit risk. Thanks.

這很有幫助。也許我們邀請你，格雷格，也談談太陽能板貸款業務，那裡的情況如何？您認為有什麼政策風險嗎？我的意思是，從那時起，它就成為 Fifth Third 的一個特殊風險因素。再次，請向我們介紹最新情況，包括您如何看待這本書的成長以及信用風險。謝謝。

And maybe I'd add one point and then Greg should address the credit risk. The policy risk in the solar lending portfolio is on future origination volumes. It's not on existing credit performance. The tax credits on any solar panels that were installed previously and are generating energy have been awarded. So we're mindful of where the investment tax credit settles out.

也許我應該補充一點，然後格雷格應該解決信用風險。太陽能貸款組合的政策風險在於未來的貸款發放量。這與現有的信用表現無關。所有先前安裝並正在產生能量的太陽能電池板都已獲得稅收抵免。因此，我們非常關注投資稅收抵免的具體實施方式。

We have the ability because we're a bank, and we are the bank -- the largest bank in the market to do some things with home equity product structures that should help us on the originations front. But it's less a policy question on existing credit performance than it is just how we're running the business operationally and the improvements that Jamie and team have been able to make there are Great.

我們有能力，因為我們是一家銀行，我們是市場上最大的銀行，可以利用房屋淨值產品結構做一些事情，這應該有助於我們在發起方面取得進展。但這不是一個關於現有信用表現的政策問題，而是我們如何經營業務的問題，而 Jamie 和團隊在那裡所做的改進非常棒。

Yeah, I agree. I was going to say the same thing. Jamie and his team are making good progress, improving effectiveness of getting customers to PTO. As Bryan mentioned, we had about a $34 million decrease in NPAs in the solar book in this quarter, so indicative of some of that progress. And we'll definitely be in the curve on charge-offs in the solar portfolio this year. It will be in the second half of the year, we've got to work through some of 2022, 2023 vintages.

是的，我同意。我本來想說同樣的話。Jamie 和他的團隊正在取得良好進展，提高了讓客戶加入 PTO 的效率。正如布萊恩所提到的，本季我們的太陽能帳簿中的不良資產減少了約 3,400 萬美元，這表明我們取得了一些進展。我們今年肯定會處於太陽能投資組合沖銷曲線之中。這將是在今年下半年，我們必須完成一些 2022 年、2023 年的年份酒。

We're still outperforming market in those vintages. However, we know we're going to have to work through those. But I'm highly confident that we're going to see better loss content in the second half of the year. Jamie and team will continue to select the right installers, we're continuing to work with the consumer to get that to PTO. And that's why you're seeing some of the overall asset quality improvement.

我們在這些年份的表現仍然優於市場。然而，我們知道我們必須解決這些問題。但我非常有信心，我們將在今年下半年看到更好的損失內容。Jamie 和他的團隊將繼續選擇合適的安裝人員，我們將繼續與消費者合作，以將其推向 PTO。這就是你看到整體資產品質有所改善的原因。

And Ebrahim, it's Bryan here. From a production perspective, we're seeing relatively stable production still in that business year over year.

易卜拉欣，我是布萊恩。從生產角度來看，我們看到該產業的生產逐年保持相對穩定。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

Either Tim or Bryan, I was hoping you could maybe put a little more context around where you feel like you've got flexibility to cut costs without impairing some of the investments and expansion plans. I know Bryan and both of you talked about costs related to lower revenue activities. So I certainly get to some of that flexes naturally. But just curious for maybe a little more color on how you're thinking about those sorts of dynamics.

無論是蒂姆還是布萊恩，我希望你們可以提供更多的背景信息，說明你們認為在不損害某些投資和擴張計劃的情況下，你們可以靈活地削減成本。我知道布萊恩和你們兩位都談到了與低收入活動相關的成本。所以我當然能夠自然地做出一些改變。但我只是好奇，也許想更多地了解您是如何看待這些動態的。

Yeah, I mean, especially the areas where we've seen reductions from a fee perspective. They tend to be areas that have higher variable-based compensation associated with the revenue production. So that obviously is a natural offset to begin with. As I mentioned, we're going to continue to lean into the branch build. We're going to continue to lean in to customer acquisition, whether that's through Salesforce or marketing.

是的，我的意思是，特別是從費用角度來看我們看到減少的領域。這些地區往往是與收入生產相關的浮動薪酬較高的地區。因此，這顯然是一個自然的抵消。正如我所提到的，我們將繼續傾向於分支構建。我們將繼續致力於客戶獲取，無論是透過 Salesforce 還是行銷。

And it's really finding those areas on the margin, whether it's the marginal spending, some incremental savings that we'll be able to lean out of some of our operational activities or just being more disciplined day-to-day on the spending from a vendor perspective. Those are the areas where we tend to have the best ability to get some incremental cost out.

這實際上是在尋找邊際領域，無論是邊際支出，還是一些我們可以從一些營運活動中節省下來的增量儲蓄，或者只是從供應商的角度對日常支出進行更嚴格的約束。這些是我們最有能力降低一些增量成本的領域。

Okay. Perfect. And then, Tim, I think you may have touched on some of these in your comments about commercial customers a couple of questions ago. But when you think particularly on the capital market side, do you have a sense for how much things are going to need to come down before customers are comfortable re-engaging in sort of discretionary activities? I mean like how much of this do we need to get through before people just sort of resume their more strategic plans?

好的。完美的。然後，提姆，我想你可能在幾個問題之前關於商業客戶的評論中提到了其中的一些內容。但是，當您特別從資本市場角度考慮時，您是否知道在客戶願意重新參與某種自由裁量活動之前，情況需要下降到什麼程度？我的意思是，在人們恢復更具策略性的計劃之前，我們需要完成多少這樣的任務？

Yeah. I spoke with a customer is a pipe manufacturer the other day and who has been working through what would be a pretty interesting acquisition for them. And his comment was if I do the deal today and they were close to getting a deal done, I'm either a hero or an idiot. And I don't like decisions where there are binary outcomes. So the first thing is there just has to be some certainty on -- as it relates to M&A-related activity in the capital markets.

是的。前幾天我與一位客戶進行了交談，他是一家管道製造商，他一直在研究一項對他們來說非常有趣的收購。他的評論是，如果我今天達成交易，而他們已經接近完成交易，那麼我要么是英雄，要么是白痴。我不喜歡只有兩種結果的決策。因此，首先必須確定的是──因為它與資本市場上的併購相關活動有關。

It's just very difficult if you're evaluating a major investment like that to make it in an environment where it's not clear what the rules of the roads are going to be. I think as it relates to hedging activity, the volatility in the markets has actually generated a real pickup in conversations. As you know, that's a bigger piece of our capital markets business than it is for most of the other regionals. So no volatility was bad for that business last year, high volatility is good on conversations.

如果你要評估這樣一項重大投資，在交通規則不明確的環境中進行投資是非常困難的。我認為，就對沖活動而言，市場的波動實際上已經引發了對話的真正回升。如您所知，這是我們資本市場業務中比大多數其他地區業務更大的份額。因此，去年沒有波動對該業務來說不是壞事，而高波動對於對話來說則是好事。

We just -- we probably need commodities prices in particular to settle out enough for people to be able to execute here, but just a modest decline in volatility helps that. And as it relates to that capital markets and bonds, it's just, again, purely a function of what will clear the market and what pricing.

我們只是——我們可能需要商品價格穩定下來，以便人們能夠在這裡執行，但波動性的適度下降有助於實現這一點。至於它與資本市場和債券的關係，它僅僅純粹是一個市場清算和定價的功能。

Most of our clients are very proactive about how they manage their funding. And the byproduct of that is they start looking at entry points way in advance of when they need to be able to refinance. But it's just going to come down to there being a little bit of direct hit, a little bit more certainty for us to see the activity.

我們的大多數客戶都非常積極地管理他們的資金。這樣做的副產品是，他們在需要再融資之前就開始尋找切入點。但這僅僅歸結為有一點直接打擊，讓我們更確定地看到活動。

That said, I think the way we stare at the forecast and we stare at what we hear from clients. And our own view is if to reaffirm the full year fee guide after you have an environment where there's less activity, you have to believe that the outlook for the second half of the year is even better than you thought it was in January.

話雖如此，我認為我們專注於預測的方式和關注從客戶那裡聽到的內容的方式。我們自己的觀點是，如果在活動較少的環境下重申全年費用指南，你必須相信下半年的前景甚至比你在一月份想像的還要好。

And I know some of our peers have gotten to that conclusion, we just can't figure out how, like there's nothing to me that suggests that the outlook in April for July to December is better than the outlook for July to December was back in January when we provided the guidance.

我知道我們的一些同行已經得出了這樣的結論，我們只是無法弄清楚為什麼，對我來說，沒有任何跡象表明 4 月份對 7 月至 12 月的前景比 1 月份我們提供指導時對 7 月至 12 月的前景更好。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

I feel like I was in a multiverse and one universe, there's a global trade war the Fed chair gives caution and there's $7 trillion of lost stock market value. And my other universe includes Fifth Third and a lot of the other banks. And in your case, you're actually guiding for some better loan growth by 100 basis points this year. You said utilization is better through mid-April. You still guide for record '25 NII.

我感覺自己彷彿置身於一個多元宇宙和一個單一宇宙之中，全球貿易戰正在上演，聯準會主席發出警告，股市價值損失了 7 兆美元。我的其他業務包括 Fifth Third 和許多其他銀行。就您而言，您實際上預計今年的貸款成長率將提高 100 個基點。您說到四月中旬利用率會更好。您仍為記錄 '25 NII 提供指導。

You said that a single client talked about layoffs, you said credit early-stage delinquencies are close to their decade low, and there's no change to your charge-off guide. So as I toggle back and forth between one universe and the other, how do I reconcile that there's not a multiverse here?

您說有一位客戶談到了裁員，您說信貸早期拖欠率已接近十年來的最低水平，而且您的沖銷指南沒有任何變化。那麼，當我在一個宇宙和另一個宇宙之間來回切換時，我該如何接受這裡不存在多重宇宙？

I hope you got the trademark for that from the Marvel folks before you used it, Mike. No, listen, from my point of view, like we have to go with what we know, right? And I think what we shared with you earlier in terms of our outlook of a pickup in inflation, unemployment being more range bound, a decline in economic growth. It is the basis. I think there's an interesting question to be asked about whether you can have a deep slowdown in the US if you don't get a big pickup in unemployment, right?

麥克，我希望你在使用它之前從漫威那裡獲得這個商標。不，聽著，從我的角度來看，我們必須按照我們所知道的去做，對嗎？我認為我們之前與你們分享了我們對通貨膨脹上升、失業率進一步波動、經濟成長放緩的展望。這是基礎。我認為有一個有趣的問題：如果失業率沒有大幅上升，美國經濟是否會出現深度放緩，對嗎？

Just growth grinds down or you have a shallow recession, I think as it relates to the credit performance inside the company, the expectations on loan growth, you start from where you are and then you work forward.

只是成長放緩或出現輕微衰退，我認為這與公司內部的信貸表現、貸款成長預期有關，你從現狀開始，然後努力向前發展。

So if we had zero additional loan growth from June 30 -- I'm sorry, from March 31 forward through the rest of the year, we would already be in what was the low end of our loan guidance range previously. And we have the pipelines to be able to support what we're projecting here with customers like the probability of default for the C&I loan production is the same or better than the portfolio overall.

因此，如果我們從 6 月 30 日開始（抱歉，從 3 月 31 日開始直到今年剩餘時間）的額外貸款增長為零，那麼我們已經處於先前貸款指導範圍的低端。我們擁有能夠支持我們向客戶預測的管道，例如 C&I 貸款生產的違約機率與整體投資組合相同或更好。

And we've done a lot of work on transitions and otherwise. And the ratings at the point of origination tend to be pretty stable from that point going forward. So we feel good about what we're originating from a loan perspective.

我們在過渡和其他方面做了很多工作。從那時起，起源點的評級往往相當穩定。因此，從貸款角度來看，我們對我們的舉措感到滿意。

And as it relates to the charge-offs, I mean, consumer runs like a conveyor belt, you see it at current 31 days past due and it moves from one delinquency bucket to the next. So you have a sense for what your lost content looks like for the remainder of the year.

至於沖銷，我的意思是，消費者就像傳送帶一樣運轉，你會看到它當前已逾期 31 天，並且它從一個拖欠桶移動到另一個拖欠桶。這樣，您就可以了解今年剩餘時間內遺失的內容情況。

And in case Greg, I hand it over to you if you have anything else you want to have. But we're just not seeing that stress in client financials that would suggest that you're going to have more losses materialize now.

格雷格，如果你還有其他想要的東西，我就把它交給你。但我們並沒有看到客戶財務狀況出現顯示將出現更多損失的壓力。

And the only thing I would add on the new stuff we're putting on is right in line or a little bit better from an asset quality standpoint from the rest of the portfolio. So we're not stretching, we're not losing the underwriting standards.

而我唯一要補充的是，我們正在投入的新產品從資產品質的角度來看，與投資組合中的其他產品保持一致或略好一些。所以我們不會擴大承保範圍，也不會降低承保標準。

I guess --

我猜--

The other thing that I would call out is it's I think what is impacting the equity markets, in particular, is the risk to the future, and that is coming through in our ACL estimates. I mean over the last two quarters, we've added $100 million to our reserve just attributable to the economic forecast because we are seeing and Moody's is now projecting more risk in the environment.

我想指出的另一件事是，我認為影響股票市場的因素特別是未來的風險，而這已經反映在我們的 ACL 估計中。我的意思是，在過去兩個季度中，我們僅根據經濟預測就增加了 1 億美元的儲備金，因為我們看到並且穆迪現在預測環境風險會更大。

I understand you were, I think, the first bank to actually highlight that. And a surprise, more banks didn't follow. In fact, they surprised you didn't even build even more. So I guess with the Chief Credit Officer there, have you done a name-by-name review. And I guess that would be a first order of review, but you don't really know what the second and third order review is. And I'm not sure how anyone can get other arms around this, but how do you manage to do it?

我知道你們是第一家真正強調這一點的銀行。令人驚訝的是，並沒有更多銀行效法。事實上，他們很驚訝你甚至沒有建造更多。因此，我想，在首席信貸官的陪同下，您是否已經進行了逐一審查？我想這應該是第一次審查，但你真的不知道第二次和第三次審查是什麼。我不知道其他人怎麼能做到這一點，但是你是怎麼做到的呢？

We've got models, we've got tools where we are doing a bottoms-up review of our commercial portfolio. We've got tools for the consumer portfolio. Tim said earlier, it starts really with the current condition, the base of our portfolio was in good shape.

我們有模型，有工具，可以自下而上地審查我們的商業投資組合。我們擁有針對消費者投資組合的工具。提姆之前說過，這確實始於當前的狀況，我們的投資組合基礎狀況良好。

Today, we've got down balance sheet coming out of COVID, our customers reacted and balance sheets are better today than they were five years ago, less leverage, consistent revenues and EBITDA streams. So it starts with that and then you start putting stress on them.

今天，我們的資產負債表已經擺脫了 COVID 的影響，我們的客戶做出了反應，今天的資產負債表比五年前更好，槓桿率更低，收入和 EBITDA 流穩定。所以從那開始，然後你開始給他們壓力。

And yeah, we are looking at all the portfolios. And we're looking at the industries that we think are going to have the most impact on construction, manufacturing, consumer spending, we're looking at all those.

是的，我們正在審查所有的投資組合。我們正在關注那些我們認為會對建築業、製造業、消費者支出產生最大影響的行業，我們正在關注所有這些行業。

But consumer portfolio, about 47% of our consumer portfolio is mortgage and home equity. We like the value. We like the asset values there. We had virtually no losses in either of those two portfolios last year. So it's going to get down from a consumer standpoint card and specialty in discretionary spending habits, what we think will be most impacted.

但消費者投資組合中，大約 47% 是抵押貸款和房屋淨值。我們喜歡這個價值。我們看好那裡的資產價值。去年，這兩個投資組合幾乎沒有遭受損失。因此，從消費者的角度來看，信用卡和可自由支配的消費習慣將受到最大影響。

But 75% of our cardholders are transactors and they're making more than the peer average monthly minimum payments. We're in that prime, super prime space. And so we're just not seeing huge impacts there. And I think from a commercial standpoint, we're well diversified.

但我們的持卡人中有 75% 都是交易者，他們的每月最低還款額高於同業平均。我們正處於黃金、超級黃金空間。所以我們並沒有看到巨大的影響。我認為從商業角度來看，我們的業務已經多元化了。

Our portfolio, doesn't have concentration, geographic type of concentrations. So I feel good about the start. But the bottom line is we don't know where this is going to go yet. From a tariff standpoint, we're staying very close to the customers.

我們的投資組合沒有集中度，也沒有地理集中度。所以我對於這個開始感覺很好。但底線是我們還不知道事情會走向何方。從關稅角度來看，我們與客戶的聯繫非常緊密。

Tim got into it earlier in terms of what the customers are telling us and we'll continue to look at it. We'll continue to stress the portfolio with the tools that we have that incorporate both internal data, our own data as well as external data.

蒂姆早些時候就客戶告訴我們的情況進行了討論，我們將繼續關注。我們將繼續利用現有的工具來強調投資組合，這些工具結合了內部數據、我們自己的數據以及外部數據。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. Tim, thank you for that really detailed response and what you're seeing on the ground. I thought that was really helpful. Just given everything you said, higher inflation, but no layoffs. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the US consumer in general? And how you're thinking about the risks in your own consumer book?

早安.提姆，謝謝你如此詳細的回答以及你所看到的情況。我認為這真的很有幫助。從您所說的一切來看，通貨膨脹率上升，但沒有裁員。您能談談您對美國消費者整體的看法嗎？您如何看待自己消費者書籍中的風險？

Yeah. That's a great question. And as I think I've said before, in some ways, we have a better view into the health of the US consumer through our checking account base because it's a pretty even slice across income bands, whereas our lending activity is essentially prime plus and super prime customers. We've said for a while that the consumer is on the low end, so folks with incomes below $75,000 in particular, those who are renters that were stretched and you can still see that.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我想我之前就說過，從某種程度上來說，我們可以透過支票帳戶更好地了解美國消費者的健康狀況，因為支票帳戶在各個收入區間的分佈相當均勻，而我們的貸款活動基本上是針對優質客戶和超級優質客戶。我們曾經說過，消費者處於低端，特別是收入低於 75,000 美元的人，以及那些租屋者，他們的生活拮据，你仍然可以看到這一點。

The tax refunds every year provide a little bit of air for that population, but they have been running with deposit balances that are below pre-COVID levels. And we hear from folks who are more active in that segment of the population that, that is reflected in early-stage delinquencies because those folks don't have the margin of error to be able to overcome the sort of I think the incremental impact that we could see from the resumption and rent increases and then any sort of inflation in the things they buy, which is basically food and energy and a little bit of closing on the margin.

每年的退稅都會為這些人提供一點喘息的機會，但他們的存款餘額一直低於新冠疫情之前的水平。我們從這部分人群中較為活躍的人士那裡聽說，這反映在早期拖欠貸款中，因為這些人沒有足夠的誤差幅度來克服我認為我們可以從恢復和租金上漲以及他們購買的物品（基本上是食品和能源）的任何形式的通貨膨脹中看到的增量影響，以及利潤率的一點點收緊。

At the upper end of the spectrum, there's still a ton of liquidity among high net worth individuals. But you could see what we think is the early signal of the impact of equity market declines. So lifestyle spending in our private bank segment declined meaningfully year over year.

在資產範圍的高端，高淨值個人仍然擁有大量的流動性。但你可以看到我們認為的股市下跌影響的早期訊號。因此，我們私人銀行部門的生活方式支出較去年同期大幅下降。

If you look at the first quarter, I think it's something on the order of about 30% in the decline in lifestyle purchases. Some of that's probably down to the fact that the Fed cut interest rates last year. So there are clients who were paying cash previously, who went back to borrowing money.

如果你看一下第一季度，我認為生活方式購買的下降幅度約為 30%。部分原因可能是聯準會去年降息。因此，一些之前用現金支付的客戶又開始借錢了。

I wouldn't attribute that all to a concern about the equity markets. But I do think you'll see those folks spend a little bit less. The folks in the middle, which is the broad middle of the population, right? So if you say bottom kind of 15% in one bucket, top 10% or 15% in the other, we saw very little change.

我不會將這一切歸咎於對股市的擔憂。但我確實認為你會看到這些人的支出會少一點。中間人群，也就是廣大的中間人群，對嗎？因此，如果你說一個桶中的底部是 15%，另一個桶中的頂部是 10% 或 15%，我們看到的變化很小。

Like there's a little evidence of pre-tariff hard goods wording, like we had trips to home improvement stores. We do a lot of with them, and data source called Placer.ai, there were pickups and purchases and warehouses, bulk purchases and warehouse stores, home improvement and department stores immediately prior to the announcement of the tariffs and then a decline year over year in purchases in those same locations afterwards.

就像有一點證據表明關稅前的耐用品措辭，就像我們去過家居裝飾店一樣。我們與他們做了很多工作，資料來源為 Placer.ai，在關稅宣布之前，有提貨和購買和倉庫、批量購買和倉儲商店、家居裝修和百貨公司，之後在同一地點的購買量逐年下降。

But in general, that segment of the population that we do business with is homeowners and homeowners are still doing pretty darn well because they fixed their housing costs. Three years ago, they missed the worst impact of inflation as a result of that.

但總體來說，與我們做生意的那部分人群是房主，而且房主們仍然過得相當不錯，因為他們固定了住房成本。三年前，他們因此錯過了通貨膨脹最嚴重的影響。

And wage increases have more than allowed them to keep up. So where does that leave us? Like I think the bottom end of the population is going to continue to feel stress. The top end of the population is likely to slow down what they buy and the folks in the middle as long as we don't have a big base on unemployment that will continue to move forward.

工資的上漲也足以讓他們維持生計。那我們該怎麼辦呢？就像我認為底層人口將繼續感受到壓力一樣。只要我們沒有龐大的失業基礎，那麼最高端的人口就很可能會放慢購買速度，而中等收入群體的購買速度也會跟著降低。

I appreciate all the color there. Maybe as a follow-up, just given some of this uncertainty and given the volatility on the long end of the curve, where do you want to manage on that CET1 including AOCI numbers? So I think you noted that you're slowing buybacks versus what you did in the first quarter. And mostly, you're doing the buybacks in the back half of the year, where would you expect to end the year on that marked CET1 ratio?

我很欣賞那裡的所有色彩。也許作為後續行動，僅考慮到其中的一些不確定性以及曲線長端的波動性，您希望在哪裡管理包括 AOCI 數字在內的 CET1？所以我認為您注意到與第一季相比，您的回購速度正在放緩。而且，您主要在下半年進行回購，您預計到年底 CET1 比率會達到多少？

We'd expect to end the year around 9% right now based off of where the forward curve is playing out. The investment portfolio, the AFS portfolio, in particular, continues to roll in. The duration is down to about 3.8 years right now, and we're more sensitive in the belly of the curve today than we are in the long end of the curve. So we do expect to continue to have that AOCI accrete down over time. So we feel good about that positioning.

根據遠期曲線的走勢，我們預計今年年底的成長率將在 9% 左右。投資組合，特別是 AFS 投資組合，繼續滾滾而來。目前持續時間已降至約 3.8 年，我們今天對曲線中段的敏感度比對曲線長端的敏感度更高。因此，我們確實預計 AOCI 會隨著時間的推移而繼續下降。因此我們對這個定位感到滿意。

It feels good about the known and predictability of those cash flows and feel good that exiting the year at around 9% is a good place to be.

對這些現金流的已知性和可預測性感覺很好，並且對今年結束時達到 9% 左右的水平感覺很好。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

肯‧烏斯丁（Ken Usdin），自主研究。

Tim, I always appreciate your big picture perspective on the industry. And just given the uncertainty you guys mentioned and all the changes happening in the regulatory environment. I'm just wondering any updates you thoughts about just industry consolidation and also what you're expecting to see and what you're hoping for from a Fifth Third perspective from all the changes on the regulatory front?

提姆，我一直很欣賞你對這個行業的宏觀視角。考慮到你們提到的不確定性以及監管環境中發生的所有變化。我只是想知道您對行業整合有什麼看法，以及您期望看到什麼，以及從五三角度對監管方面的所有變化有什麼期望？

Yeah. No, happy to do that. I can go a lot of directions to that question. Let me take what we're expecting to see from the regulatory front first, and then I'll hit the industry consolidation point. If you just step back and say, what's the thesis that the current administration is using on the way to drive the country forward.

是的。不，我很樂意這麼做。我可以從很多方面來回答這個問題。讓我先談談我們期望從監管方面看到什麼，然後再談行業整合點。如果你退一步思考，現任政府在推動國家前進的道路上所採取的論點是什麼。

Like there's a strong belief everybody talks about in here it's important for us to have a domestic manufacturing sector and strong order. That's important for national security. It's important in terms of ensuring that the benefits that our economy creates are available broadly. And part of the way that they -- but they also recognize that fiscal discipline is going to be important, right?

就像每個人都堅信的那樣，擁有國內製造業和強大的秩序對我們來說非常重要。這對國家安全很重要。這對於確保我們的經濟所創造的利益能廣泛惠及至關重要。但他們也體認到財政紀律很重要，對吧？

So I think the logic that I see here is you've got to keep the tax rates low because it's important that we have money in people's pockets to keep the economy going and to invest back in the businesses. There's some reduction in spending associated with the DOGE initiatives, but the way then to get the fiscal balance back in order is probably a little bit in tariffs, but maybe more importantly, to reignite private sector growth, right?

所以我認為我在這裡看到的邏輯是，你必須保持低稅率，因為重要的是我們要讓人們的口袋裡有錢來維持經濟發展並重新投資於企業。與 DOGE 計劃相關的支出確實有所減少，但恢復財政平衡的方法可能有點依賴關稅，但也許更重要的是，重新激發私營部門的成長，對嗎？

So they've talked a lot about deregulation across sectors as a mechanism to ignite growth. I think they see bank regulation as really critical there because if you just step back and look at the loan-to-deposit ratios from, call it, 20 years ago to the current period, they're down 20 percentage points-plus, which equates to about $5 trillion in credit formation that didn't happen, right?

因此，他們多次討論放鬆跨部門管制，以此作為刺激成長的機制。我認為他們認為銀行監管真的至關重要，因為如果你回顧一下從 20 年前到現在的貸存比率，你會發現它們下降了 20 個百分點以上，這相當於約 5 兆美元的信貸形成沒有發生，對嗎？

And if you say, hey, maybe we only got half of that, but that's $2.5 trillion that could have gone in investing in new capital equipment or job formation or otherwise, maybe we wouldn't have needed tariffs to have a resurgence in domestic manufacturing.

如果你說，嘿，也許我們只得到了其中的一半，但那 2.5 兆美元本可以用來投資新資本設備或創造就業機會或其他方面，也許我們不需要關稅來復甦國內製造業。

So I think capital and liquidity are going to continue to be really top priorities for them as the leaders of these individual agencies are formally confirmed here. And that is good for everybody. I really do believe that. The system is well-capitalized.

因此，我認為，隨著這些機構領導人的正式確認，資本和流動性將繼續成為他們的首要任務。這對每個人都有好處。我確實相信這一點。該系統資金雄厚。

The system has more than ample liquidity to support a wide range of scenarios, and we need the capacity to be able to support credit formation if we're going to reignite the private sector growth.

該系統擁有充足的流動性來支持各種各樣的情況，如果我們要重新激發私營部門的成長，我們需要有能力支持信貸形成。

That said, they've also been, I think, pretty clear that the banks are going to need to compete with everybody, right? The deregulation is going to have at least a significant effect and effect on the non-bank sector, in particular, as it relates to some of the things that are being done on compliance.

話雖如此，我認為他們也已經非常清楚，銀行需要與所有人競爭，對嗎？放鬆管制將至少產生重大影響，特別是對非銀行部門，因為它與合規方面的一些舉措有關。

And we have the least consolidated banking sector in the world, right? So long term, medium term, there should be more consolidation. It's important for all of us to continue to try to get the overheads down in the business and to be able to make the investments that we got to continue to make in AI and technology and all of the other things that are so important to the way that we're going to serve customers in the future.

我們的銀行業是世界上最不整合的，對嗎？因此從長期和中期來看，應該會有更多的整合。對我們所有人來說，重要的是繼續努力降低業務管理費用，並能夠繼續在人工智慧和技術以及對我們未來服務客戶的方式至關重要的所有其他方面進行投資。

Tim, anything on the industry consolidation point, and I'll leave it there.

提姆，關於行業整合點的任何信息，我都會就此打住。

Yeah. Just that I think you'll see there's no question in my mind in the future, there are going to be fewer banks than there are today.

是的。我想你們會看到，我毫不懷疑，未來銀行的數量會比現在少。

Understood. Okay.

明白了。好的。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特（Peter Winter），地方檢察官戴維森。

Good morning. You guys have a nice history of being very disciplined on credit underwriting. If I look at slide 18, you've got your breakdown of the shared national credit portfolio, which is 27% of loans. Just in the downturn, there always seems to be market concerns about SNC credits. Just can you talk about your outlook in this portfolio in an economic downturn?

早安.你們在信用承保方面一直非常嚴格，有著良好的記錄。如果我看第 18 張投影片，你會看到共享國家信貸組合的細目，佔貸款的 27%。只是在經濟低迷時期，市場似乎總是對SNC信貸感到擔憂。您能否談談在經濟低迷時期您對該投資組合的展望？

Yeah. Greg, maybe take that here in a minute. I think we hear it. And as you said, while we're very proud of the discipline we have in the underwriting and then the performance of the SNC portfolio we've been pretty clear that we want to be more granular. And I think we've actually made pretty good progress on that.

是的。格雷格，也許一會兒就拿到它了。我想我們聽到了。正如您所說，雖然我們對承保的紀律以及 SNC 投資組合的表現感到非常自豪，但我們也非常清楚，我們希望更加細緻。我認為我們在這方面確實取得了相當大的進展。

I mean there's a highlight on that slide that talks about SNC balances being down 13% in two years. Like we've grown the middle market by 5% during that same period, and it included the RWA diet.

我的意思是，幻燈片上有一個重點提到，SNC 餘額在兩年內下降了 13%。就像我們在同一時期將中端市場擴大了 5%，其中包括 RWA 飲食。

And about two-thirds of the production in this first quarter were middle market, which, by definition, are not, SNC credits. And that's where essentially all the RM additions have gone as well. So the SNC portfolio is a good portfolio. I'm not worried at all about the quality there.

第一季約有三分之二的產量來自中端市場，根據定義，它們不屬於 SNC 信用。基本上所有 RM 新增的內容也都到此為止。因此，SNC 投資組合是一個很好的投資組合。我一點也不擔心那裡的品質。

Greg will give you a little bit more detail. But the strategy there has been to grow the granularity of the book by investing in the middle market. And I think you should continue to expect the SNC portfolio not to be the centerpiece of how we get our growth going forward.

格雷格將向您提供更多細節。但他們的策略是透過投資中端市場來增加書籍的粒度。我認為您應該繼續預期 SNC 投資組合不會成為我們未來成長的核心。

Yeah. From an asset quality standpoint, it's performing in line or better than the rest of the portfolio, criticized levels less than 5% compared to the rest of the portfolio. 60% of that is investment or near investment grade. I think it's important to remind everyone, we are underwriting our own SNC whether we're a participant or not. It's got to underwrite to our standards.

是的。從資產品質的角度來看，它的表現與投資組合中的其他部分一致或更好，與投資組合中的其他部分相比，其受批評程度不到 5%。其中 60% 為投資等級或接近投資等級。我認為有必要提醒大家，無論我們是否是參與者，我們都在承保我們自己的 SNC。它必須符合我們的標準。

Average relationship size there is about $34 million in outstanding. So it's a very manageable, very diverse from an industry standpoint portfolio. And so we've maintained our disciplines, both in terms of hold levels as well as industry diversification. We've got very low leverage. When you think about leveraged loans, we've got very little leveraged loans in that state portfolio.

那裡的平均關係規模約為 3400 萬美元的未償還債務。因此，從行業角度來看，這是一個非常易於管理、非常多樣化的投資組合。因此，我們在持有水平和行業多樣化方面都保持了紀律。我們的槓桿率非常低。當你考慮槓桿貸款時，你會發現我們在州的投資組合中擁有的槓桿貸款非常少。

Got it. And just as a follow-up question. You upped the average loan forecast, and you've got very good momentum in the first quarter on that margin expansion, but [didn't change] the NII guidance. Just maybe talk about the puts and takes to the 5% to 6% growth this year and where you think the margin could end the year?

知道了。這只是後續問題。您提高了平均貸款預測，並且第一季利潤率擴張勢頭良好，但 NII 指導並未改變。也許可以談談今年 5% 至 6% 成長的利弊，以及您認為今年年底的利潤率會是多少？

Yeah. Thanks, Peter. I would tell you that we continue to feel good in what we're seeing from a momentum perspective on NII. The puts and takes, we had a little bit of softness in the first quarter from a seasonality perspective in deposits. That was something that I talked about earlier in the first quarter.

是的。謝謝，彼得。我想告訴你們，從 NII 的勢頭來看，我們繼續對所看到的情況感到滿意。從季節角度來看，第一季存款業務略顯疲軟。這是我在第一季早些時候談到的事情。

So that did have a little bit of impact. The growth has come in at a little bit higher credit quality than we were originally expecting. So spreads were a little bit tighter because of some of the credit quality of the production. And finally, the current forecast assumes three cuts for the year, which includes a December cut.

所以這確實有一點影響。信貸品質的成長比我們最初預期的要高一些。因此，由於生產過程中的一些信用質量，利差稍微收窄了一些。最後，目前的預測假設今年將降息三次，其中包括 12 月的降息。

And that December cut is costly from an interest income perspective as the loans will reprice ahead of that, but we won't get the deposit repricing until end of December and into January. Those are the main drivers from a puts and takes perspective on why it's kind of in line despite a little bit better loan growth.

從利息收入的角度來看，12 月的降息代價高昂，因為貸款將在此之前重新定價，但我們要到 12 月底和 1 月才能獲得存款重新定價。從看跌和看漲的角度來看，這些是導致貸款成長略有改善但仍保持穩定的主要驅動因素。

Any sense where the margin could end the year?

有沒有跡象顯示今年的利潤率會達到多少？

We continue to expect a [couple of few basis points] of improvement from here to the end of the year kind of like each quarter kind of like we've experienced in the last several quarters. I would tell you more than anything, the volatility around the potential cash balances, depending on where loan demand and deposit growth shows up it's going to potentially be more impactful and just don't have a good line of sight of how we're thinking about where cash balances could be. But in general, the core business trends, I would expect to see [a couple of few basis points a quarter] steady increases from here.

我們繼續預計從現在到年底會出現[幾個基點]的改善，就像我們在過去幾個季度所經歷的那樣。我想告訴你的是，潛在現金餘額的波動取決於貸款需求和存款成長的出現，這可能會產生更大的影響，而且我們對於現金餘額可能在哪裡沒有一個很好的認識。但總體而言，我預期核心業務趨勢將從現在開始穩定成長。

I will turn the call back over to Matt for closing remarks.

我將把電話轉回給馬特，請他做最後發言。

All right. Thank you, Kate, and thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Kate, you may now disconnect the call.

好的。謝謝你，凱特，也謝謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。凱特，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。