Fifth Third Bancorp (FITBP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Curoe, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。我的名字是 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加五三銀行 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Matt Curoe。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Fifth Third's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This morning, our Chairman, CEO and President, Tim Spence; and CFO, Bryan Preston, will provide an overview of our fourth quarter results and outlook. Our Chief Credit Officer, Greg Schroeck, has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Fifth Third 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天上午，我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tim Spence；和財務長 Bryan Preston 將概述我們第四季度的業績和展望。我們的首席信貸官 Greg Schroeck 也參加了此次電話會議的問答部分。

Please review the cautionary statements in our materials, which can be found in our earnings release and presentation. These materials contain information regarding the use of non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results, as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance. These statements speak only as of January 21, 2025, and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them. Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions.

請查看我們資料中的警告聲明，可在我們的收益報告和介紹中找到。這些資料包含有關使用非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標和與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 結果對帳的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅截至 2025 年 1 月 21 日有效，Fifth Third 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。在提姆和布萊恩發表完準備好的發言後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn in over to Tim.

現在，讓我把話題交給提姆。

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. At Fifth Third, we believe great banks distinguish themselves not by how they perform in benign environments, but rather by how they navigate on certain ones. We achieved this through a diversified business mix, defensive balance sheet positioning, and by obsessing over the details in day-to-day operations while investing for the long term.

謝謝，馬特，大家早安。在 Fifth Third，我們相信優秀的銀行之所以能脫穎而出，並非因為它們在良性環境中的表現，而是因為它們在特定環境中的導航能力。我們透過多元化的業務組合、防禦性資產負債表定位以及在長期投資的同時關注日常營運的細節來實現這一目標。

This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.90 excluding certain items outlined on page two of the release, exceeding the guidance we provided in our third quarter earnings call. We achieved an adjusted return on equity of 13.7%, the highest among all peers who have reported thus far.

今天上午，我們報告稱，不包括新聞稿第二頁列出的某些項目，每股收益為 0.90 美元，超過了我們在第三季度收益電話會議上提供的指引。我們實現了 13.7% 的調整後股本回報率，是迄今為止報告的所有同行中最高的。

Revenues for the quarter grew 2% sequentially and 2% year-over-year. Core adjusted PPNR exceeded $1 billion for the first time in several quarters, and our adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 54.7%.The fourth quarter capped the year was the industry outlook for interest rates, loan growth, regulation, and capital markets activity all changed significantly.

本季營收季增 2%，年增 2%。核心調整後的 PPNR 在幾個季度以來首次超過 10 億美元，我們的調整後效率比率提高到 54.7%。今年第四季的最高點是產業對利率、貸款成長、監管和資本市場活動的前景都發生了重大變化。

Despite this, we delivered strong and predictable results. Our full year return on assets of 1.17%, return on tangible common equity, excluding AOCI of 14%, an efficiency ratio of 57.1%, all finished among the top in our peer group.

儘管如此，我們仍然取得了強勁且可預見的業績。我們全年資產回報率為 1.17%，不包括 AOCI 的有形普通股權益回報率為 14%，效率比率為 57.1%，在同業中均名列前茅。

We were one of only a few banks to achieve full year guidance for NII, fees, expenses, PPNR, and net charge-offs that was provided back in January. Our NIM inflected in the first quarter as we said it would. NII inflected in the second quarter as we said it would. We returned to positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis, as we said we would.

我們是少數幾家在 1 月提供 NII、費用、支出、PPNR 和淨沖銷全年指導的銀行之一。正如我們所說的那樣，我們的淨利息收益率在第一季發生了變化。正如我們所說的那樣，NII 在第二季度出現了變化。正如我們所說的那樣，我們在第四季度的環比和同比基礎上都恢復了正的經營槓桿。

We resumed share repurchases in the second quarter and raised our dividend in the third quarter. In total for the year, we returned $1.6 billion of capital to our shareholders, while also increasing our CET1 ratio by more than 20 basis points.

我們在第二季恢復了股票回購，並在第三季提高了股利。全年我們共向股東返還了 16 億美元的資本，同時也將 CET1 比率提高了 20 個以上基點。

Competitive barriers are exceedingly difficult to build in the banking business. The only way we know how to build them is to invest continuously in a limited number of strategies over a sustained period of time. Our growth strategies are well known and have been consistent for several years now. Their impact is evidenced in our 2024 results and reflected in the third-party accolades that we received during the year.

銀行業中競爭障礙的建立極為困難。我們知道如何建立它們的唯一方法是在一段持續的時間內持續投資有限數量的策略。我們的成長策略是眾所周知的，並且幾年來一直保持一致。它們的影響在我們 2024 年的業績中得到了證實，並反映在我們在這一年中獲得的第三方讚譽中。

Our investments to expand our Southeast branch footprint and in our differentiated momentum banking platform continue to drive outsized growth in granular low-cost deposits. For the second consecutive year, Fifth Third was number one among all large banks and year-over-year retail deposit growth measured on a cap deposit basis.

我們為擴大東南分行和差異化銀行平台而進行的投資將繼續推動精細低成本存款的超額成長。連續第二年，五三銀行在所有大型銀行中位居第一，以存款上限為基礎衡量零售存款年增率也位居第一。

We generated year-over-year household growth of 2.3%, punctuated by 6% growth in the Southeast. And we also won JD Power's Retail Banking Satisfaction award for the Florida region. The 31 de novo branch locations we opened in 2024 and the 60 new branches we expect to open in the Southeast in 2025, should set us up well to continue to gain market share.

我們實現了家庭數量年增 2.3%，其中東南部地區成長 6%。我們也獲得了JD Power佛羅裡達地區零售銀行滿意度獎。我們將於 2024 年開設 31 家新分支機構，並預計於 2025 年在東南部開設 60 家新分支機構，這將為我們繼續獲得市場份額奠定良好基礎。

On lending, our investments to generate granular diversified loan originations without compromising on pricing or risk gaining momentum throughout the year and contributed to a strong finish. On a sequential end-of-period basis, we grew loans 3% or a bit more than 1% faster than the HA. Growth was balanced between consumer and commercial and across product categories, including from our through-the-cycle commitment to the auto business, strong C&I production from the middle market, and key CIB verticals and continued growth from providing dividends in tech platforms.

在貸款方面，我們的投資旨在產生細粒度的多樣化貸款發放，同時不影響定價或風險，全年保持成長勢頭，並有助於實現強勁收官。以期末計算，我們的貸款成長率為 3%，比 HA 快 1% 多一點。消費者和商業之間以及跨產品類別的成長是平衡的，包括我們對汽車業務的整個週期承諾、中端市場的強勁 C&I 生產、關鍵的 CIB 垂直市場以及透過為技術平台提供紅利而實現的持續成長。

In the middle market, we expanded our relationship manager head count by 25% in the Southeast and in our expansion markets over the course of 2024. Fourth quarter middle market loan production reached a three-year high, increasing over 50% sequentially and over 70% year-over-year, and we also saw a modest uptick in utilization.

在中型市場，我們在 2024 年期間將東南部和擴張市場的關係經理數量增加了 25%。第四季中端市場貸款產量達到三年來的最高水平，季增超過 50%，年增超過 70%，我們也看到利用率略有上升。

Our C&I pipelines in middle market are at record levels heading into 2025, and we expect to add another 5% to 10% to RM head count over the course of the year. On fees, our commercial payments business grew fee revenues by 8% in 2024, and we processed $17 trillion in volume. Our managed services offerings and Newline led the way on growth and nearly 40% of all new commercial payments relationships have no credit attached.

到 2025 年，我們的中階市場 C&I 通路將達到創紀錄的水平，我們預計今年 RM 員工數量將再增加 5% 至 10%。在費用方面，我們的商業支付業務的費用收入在 2024 年增長了 8%，處理的交易量達到 17 兆美元。我們的託管服務產品和 Newline 在成長方面處於領先地位，近 40% 的新商業支付關係沒有附加信用。

In addition, Care sheet, Global Finance and this week and Fintech all recognize new line with awards for technology innovation. The ramp from new and expanded relationships won during the year, including Stripe and [Trustee], will give us a head start on the strong 2025.

此外，《Care Sheet》、《Global Finance》和《本週金融科技》均向新產品授予技術創新獎。今年贏得的包括 Stripe 和 [Trustee] 在內的新合作關係和拓展關係的不斷擴大，將有助於我們在 2025 年取得領先優勢。

In wealth and asset management, total assets under management grew 17% year-over-year, up roughly $10 billion to $69 billion in total AUM. Our Fifth Third Private Bank, Fifth Third Securities, and Fifth Third Wealth Advisors business units all delivered strong performance, and we were recognized for the sixth consecutive year as Best Private Bank by Global Finance.

在財富和資產管理方面，管理的總資產年增 17%，總資產管理規模增加約 100 億美元，達到 690 億美元。我們的五三私人銀行、五三證券及五三財富顧問業務部門均表現強勁，連續第六年被《環球金融》評為最佳私人銀行。

Last, we continued to make good progress on modernizing our operating platform. We completed general ledger and clearing platform conversions during the year and launched term deposits on a modern cloud core. Our cross-functional lean value streams have achieved more than $150 million in annualized savings and head count declined 1% year-over-year. These initiatives continue to improve execution quality and provide funding for the investments in our growth strategies.

最後，我們在操作平台現代化方面繼續取得良好進展。我們在年內完成了總帳和清算平台的轉換，並在現代雲端核心上推出了定期存款。我們的跨職能精實價值流實現了超過 1.5 億美元的年度節約，員工人數較去年同期下降了 1%。這些舉措不斷提高執行品質並為我們的成長策略投資提供資金。

Looking ahead to 2025, there are many reasons to feel optimistic about the banking sector. The underlying economy is solid and most business owners are more optimistic about 2025 than they were about 2024. The combination of front-end rates above zero and some steepness in the yield curve is a more constructive setup than we have had in quite some time.

展望2025年，我們有許多理由對銀行業感到樂觀。基礎經濟穩健，大多數企業主對 2025 年的前景比對 2024 年更為樂觀。高於零的前端利率和收益率曲線的一定陡峭度相結合，形成了一種比我們相當長一段時間以來所擁有的更具建設性的設置。

We may also be on the cusp of a shift in the direction and regulation, which could unlock new opportunities. With that said, recent history is a good reminder that things can shift very quickly. The modern economy is the most complex adaptive system the world has ever seen, and complex systems react to change in unexpected ways.

我們可能也處於方向和監管轉變的邊緣，這可能會帶來新的機會。話雖如此，最近發生的歷史事件提醒我們，事情瞬息萬變。現代經濟是世界上最複雜的適應系統，複雜系統對變化的反應是意想不到的。

Somewhat well, we are pleased with the positioning of our company. We remain confident in achieving record NII in 2025 and delivering full year positive operating leverage across a range of interest rate environments. Our credit portfolio remains well diversified and proactively managed, and the risks are well understood. We will continue to focus on stability, profitability, and growth in that order and to stay balanced in our positioning, while investing with the long term in mind.

整體來說，我們對公司的定位還是比較滿意的。我們仍然有信心在 2025 年實現創紀錄的 NII，並在各種利率環境下實現全年正經營槓桿。我們的信貸組合仍然保持良好多元化並得到積極管理，風險也得到充分了解。我們將繼續按順序關注穩定性、獲利能力和成長性，並保持平衡的定位，同時著眼於長期投資。

Before I turn it over to Bryan, I want to say thank you to our employees for the way you support our customers and our communities and for your commitment to getting 1% better every day. You make our company the special place it is.

在將麥克風交給布萊恩之前，我想先對我們的員工表示感謝，感謝你們對我們的客戶和社區的支持，感謝你們致力於每天進步 1%。您讓我們的公司變得如此特別。

With that, Brian will provide additional details on the quarter and our outlook for 2025.

為此，Brian 將提供有關本季和 2025 年展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tim, and thank you to everyone joining us today. Our fourth quarter results demonstrated the ongoing strength and momentum of our company. With a resilient balance sheet and diversified income streams, we achieved 3% sequential growth in adjusted revenue. That revenue performance, combined with our ongoing expense discipline, resulted in a 5% sequential pre-provision net revenue increase in the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis.

謝謝，提姆，也謝謝今天加入我們的每個人。我們的第四季業績證明了公司持續的實力和發展勢頭。憑藉穩健的資產負債表和多元化的收入來源，我們的調整後收入實現了 3% 的連續成長。這項營收表現，加上我們持續的費用控制，導致第四季經調整後的撥備前淨收入季增 5%。

As Tim mentioned, our strong profitability allowed us to return over $1.6 billion of capital to our shareholders in 2024, including the $300 million share repurchase executed in the fourth quarter. We delivered $3 billion of sequential growth in end-of-period loans and maintained our CET1 ratio consistent with our near-term operating target of 10.5%.

正如蒂姆所提到的，強勁的獲利能力使我們能夠在 2024 年向股東返還超過 16 億美元的資本，其中包括第四季度執行的 3 億美元股票回購。我們實現了期末貸款連續 30 億美元的成長，並將 CET1 比率維持在與 10.5% 的近期營運目標一致。

In addition to the $630 million in stock we were purchased in 2024, our tangible book value per share, inclusive of the impact of AOCI increased 6% from the previous year despite the 10-year treasury increasing nearly 70 basis points. The strategy in our investment portfolio to focus on investments with known cash flows through the bullet and locked out securities will continue to benefit us as these positions pull to par. Even with the increase in rates, the securities we maintained and available for sale realized an improvement in their unrealized loss position since the end of last year.

除了我們在 2024 年購買的價值 6.3 億美元的股票外，儘管 10 年期國債增加了近 70 個基點，但我們每股有形賬面價值（包括 AOCI 的影響）仍比上一年增長了 6%。我們的投資組合策略是透過子彈和鎖定證券專注於已知現金流的投資，隨著這些頭寸達到平價，該策略將繼續使我們受益。即使利率上升，我們持有並可供出售的證券自去年年底以來未實現虧損狀況仍有所改善。

Highlighted on page 2 of our release, our reported results were impacted by certain items. These include costs related to the Visa-MasterCard interchange litigation and a contribution to our foundation, partially offset by benefits related to an updated estimate for the FDIC special assessment and the resolution of a prior period state tax item.

我們在新聞稿第 2 頁重點強調，我們的報告結果受到某些項目的影響。這些費用包括與 Visa-MasterCard 交換訴訟相關的費用以及對我們基金會的捐贈，但部分費用被與 FDIC 特別評估的更新估計和前期州稅項目的解決相關的收益所抵消。

Net interest income for the quarter continued its positive momentum, increasing 1% sequentially to $1.4 billion with net interest margin improving 7 basis points. Proactive balance sheet management resulted in a 35-basis point reduction in the cost of interest-bearing deposits. These actions, along with the loan growth and the continued repricing benefit on fixed rate assets, more than offset the decrease in yield on our floating rate assets.

本季淨利息收入持續保持積極勢頭，環比增長 1% 至 14 億美元，淨息差提高 7 個基點。積極的資產負債表管理使計息存款成本降低了35個基點。這些舉措，加上貸款成長和固定利率資產的持續重新定價收益，遠遠抵消了浮動利率資產收益率的下降。

Loan growth accelerated in December, resulting in a strong period end loan growth of 3%, with average loans increasing 1% sequentially. Period-end commercial loans were up 3%, and average balances were relatively stable. We saw broad-based strength in production across our middle market footprint, led by our Chicago, Indiana, Carolinas, and Georgia regions, as well as a rebound in our corporate banking verticals. Utilization improved the point, some of which we expect as normal year-end seasonality.

12 月貸款成長加速，期末貸款強勁成長 3%，平均貸款較上季成長 1%。期末商業貸款成長3%，平均餘額相對穩定。我們看到，以芝加哥、印第安納、卡羅萊納和喬治亞地區為首的中階市場生產全面走強，同時企業銀行垂直業務也反彈。利用率有所提高，我們預計其中一些是正常的年終季節性現象。

Average and period-end consumer loans were up 2% from the prior quarter, reflecting increases in indirect auto and residential mortgages. Both asset classes also saw sequential increases in yield due to the continued front book back book repricing benefits on these fixed rate portfolios.

平均和期末消費貸款較上一季成長 2%，反映了間接汽車和住宅抵押貸款的增加。由於這些固定利率投資組合持續享有前帳簿後帳簿重新定價優勢，這兩種資產類別的收益率也都持續成長。

Shifting to deposits. Average core deposits were up 1% sequentially, driven by higher interest checking balances in commercial. This core deposit performance, combined with the flexibility provided by our elevated cash position, allowed us to meet our expected down rate beta targets and further reduce higher-cost short-term wholesale borrowings. Interest-bearing core deposits peaked at 2.9% in August, and were down to 2.49% in the month of December, representing a core deposit beta in the upper 50s.

轉向存款。平均核心存款較上季增加 1%，主要是由於商業銀行支票餘額利息增加。核心存款的表現，加上我們高額現金部位所提供的靈活性，使我們能夠實現預期的利率下行貝塔目標，並進一步減少高成本的短期批發借款。8 月計息核心存款利率達到高峰 2.9%，而 12 月則下降至 2.49%，核心存款貝塔係數達到 50 多。

Total core deposits have increased by $1.6 billion over that same horizon. As always, our focus remains on prudently managing total funding costs while maintaining a strong liquidity position. We are very pleased with the 38 basis point sequential decrease in interest-bearing liability costs. Our balanced approach will continue to provide us with flexibility need to continue our NII growth trajectory to a record 2025, as we head into another uncertain rate environment.

同期核心存款總額增加了 16 億美元。像往常一樣，我們的重點仍然是審慎管理總融資成本，同時保持強勁的流動性狀況。我們對計息負債成本連續下降38個基點感到非常高興。隨著我們進入另一個不確定的利率環境，我們的平衡方法將繼續為我們提供靈活性，以便將我們的 NII 成長軌跡延續到創紀錄的 2025 年。

Demand deposit balances as a percent of core deposits remained at 24% during the quarter, consistent with our expectations. Balances were stable on both an end-of-period and average basis compared to the third quarter. We believe this balance level will be maintained as short-term rates are likely to be relatively stable over the near term. We ended the quarter with full Category 1 LCR compliance at 125% and our loan to core deposit ratio was 73%, up 2% from the prior quarter.

本季度，活期存款餘額佔核心存款的百分比維持在 24%，與我們的預期一致。與第三季相比，期末餘額和平均餘額均保持穩定。我們相信，由於短期利率在短期內可能相對穩定，此平衡水準將會維持。本季結束時，我們的第 1 類 LCR 完全合規性達到 125%，貸款與核心存款比率為 73%，較上一季上升了 2%。

Moving to fees. During the fourth quarter, we updated the noninterest income captions on our income statement to better align disclosures to our most significant business activities, which includes the addition of commercial payments and capital markets line items. The appendix of our presentation provides more detail on the caption changes. Excluding the impacts of the securities gains and losses and the Visa total return swap, adjusted noninterest income in the fourth quarter increased 5% compared to the same quarter last year.

轉向費用。在第四季度，我們更新了損益表中的非利息收入項目，以便更好地將揭露與我們最重要的業務活動相結合，其中包括增加商業支付和資本市場項目。我們簡報的附錄提供了有關標題變更的更多詳細資訊。不包括證券損益和 Visa 總回報互換的影響，第四季度調整後非利息收入較去年同期成長 5%。

Capital markets, wealth, and commercial payments all delivered strong fee results, driven by our sustained strategic growth investments in products and sales personnel. Capital Markets grew 16% over the prior year, with increases in loan syndications, debt capital markets and M&A advisory revenue. We continue to see activity below prior year levels in our customer hedging and institutional brokerage fees.

在我們對產品和銷售人員持續的策略成長投資的推動下，資本市場、財富和商業支付均取得了強勁的費用表現。資本市場比上年增長了 16%，其中銀團貸款、債務資本市場和併購諮詢收入均增加。我們繼續看到客戶對沖和機構經紀費用的活動低於去年同期的水平。

In wealth, fees grew 11% over the prior year to $163 million due to AUM growth and increased transactional activity at Fifth Third Securities. The new commercial pay caption includes TAM fees and earnings credits that were previously included in service charges on deposits, and commercial card and sponsorship revenue that was previously reported in card and processing revenue.

在財富方面，由於五三證券 (Fifth Third Securities) 的 AUM 成長和交易活動的增加，費用比去年增加了 11%，達到 1.63 億美元。新的商業薪酬標題包括先前包含在存款服務費中的 TAM 費用和收益信用，以及先前在卡片和處理收入中報告的商業卡和贊助收入。

Compared to the prior year, commercial payments revenue increased 7%, driven by treasury management net fee equivalent growth, which was up 11%. We continue to acquire new clients and treasury management products in our managed services and in new line.

與前一年相比，商業支付收入成長了 7%，這得益於資金管理淨費用等值成長了 11%。我們繼續透過託管服務和新產品線獲取新客戶和財務管理產品。

The securities losses of $8 million were primarily from the mark-to-market impact of our nonqualified deferred compensation plan, which is offset in compensation expense. Moving to expenses. Excluding the items noted on page 2 of our release, our adjusted noninterest expense was up 1% from the year ago quarter and decreased 1% sequentially. The previously mentioned deferred compensation mark reduced expenses by $7 million for the quarter compared to expense increases of $10 million and $13 million in the prior and year ago quarters, respectively.

800 萬美元的證券損失主要來自於我們的非合格遞延薪酬計劃的按市價計價的影響，該損失在薪酬費用中被抵消。轉向費用。除本新聞稿第 2 頁所列項目外，我們的調整後非利息支出較去年同期上漲 1%，較上一季下降 1%。前面提到的遞延薪酬標記使本季的支出減少了 700 萬美元，而上一季和去年同期的支出分別增加了 1,000 萬美元和 1,300 萬美元。

Excluding the impact of the deferred comp mark, Year-over-year expense growth was 2% and sequential expense growth was 1%. While investments in technology, branches and sales personnel have and will continue to drive expense increases, these costs continue to be partially funded through the savings generated by our value stream efficiency programs.

排除遞延補償價格的影響，費用較去年同期上漲 2%，較上季上漲 1%。雖然對技術、分支機構和銷售人員的投資已經並將繼續推動費用增加，但這些成本仍將透過我們的價值流效率計畫所產生的節省得到部分資助。

Shifting to credit. The net charge-off ratio was 46 basis points in line with our expectations for the quarter and down 2 basis points sequentially. Commercial charge-offs were 32 basis points, down 8 basis points. Consumer charge-offs were up 6 basis points, which primarily reflects the normal seasonal fourth quarter uptick we see in our indirect auto and card portfolios as well as the continued seasoning of the 2022 vintages in our solar and RV portfolios. Consistent with broader industry data, the 2022 consumer vintage appears to be a modest underperformer relative to other origination periods.

轉向信貸。淨核銷率為 46 個基點，符合我們對本季的預期，較上一季下降 2 個基點。商業沖銷為32個基點，下降8個基點。消費者沖銷額增加了 6 個基點，這主要反映了我們在間接汽車和信用卡投資組合中看到的正常季節性第四季度上漲，以及我們的太陽能和房車投資組合中 2022 年份的持續成熟。與更廣泛的行業數據一致，2022 年消費年份的表現相對於其他起源時期似乎略有不佳。

Early stage delinquencies 30 to 89 days past due, increased only 1 basis point and remained near the lowest levels we have experienced over the last decade. Our NPA ratio increased 9 basis points (inaudible) to 71 basis points. Commercial NPAs contributed $122 million to the increase from the prior quarter and consumer NPAs were up only $15 million.

早期拖欠率（逾期 30 至 89 天）僅增加了 1 個基點，並且仍接近過去十年來我們經歷的最低水平。我們的不良資產比率增加了 9 個基點（聽不清楚）至 71 個基點。商業不良資產較上一季增加 1.22 億美元，而消費者不良資產僅增加 1,500 萬美元。

Within Commercial, our CRE portfolio continues to perform well with no net charge-offs during the quarter and a stable NPA ratio of 46 basis points. Additionally, total commercial criticized assets decreased by $435 million, an 8% reduction during the quarter.

在商業領域，我們的 CRE 投資組合持續表現良好，本季沒有淨沖銷，NPA 比率穩定在 46 個基點。此外，本季受批評的商業資產總額減少了 4.35 億美元，降幅為 8%。

Our provision expense for the quarter resulted in a $43 million build in our allowance for credit losses. This build was primarily attributable to the strong growth in period-end loans and a modest deterioration in the Moody's macroeconomic scenarios. Our ACL coverage ratio was 2.08%, down 1 basis point from the third quarter. We made no changes to our scenario weightings during the quarter.

本季的撥備支出導致我們的信用損失準備金增加了 4,300 萬美元。這一增長主要歸因於期末貸款的強勁增長以及穆迪宏觀經濟情景的略微惡化。我們的 ACL 覆蓋率為 2.08%，較第三季下降 1 個基點。本季我們沒有對情境權重做出任何改變。

Moving to capital. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.5%, significantly exceeding our buffered minimum of 7.7% and consistent with our near-term target. Our pro forma CET1 ratio, including the AOCI impact of the securities portfolio is 8.1%, up 32 basis points year-over-year. We anticipate continued improvement in the unrealized losses in our securities portfolio, given that approximately 60% of the fixed rate securities in our AFS portfolio are in bullet or lockout structures, which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations.

移居首都。截至本季末，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.5%，大大超過了 7.7% 的緩衝最低限度，並符合​​我們的近期目標。我們的預期 CET1 比率（包括證券投資組合的 AOCI 影響）為 8.1%，較去年同期成長 32 個基點。我們預計我們的證券投資組合中的未實現損失將繼續改善，因為我們的 AFS 投資組合中大約 60% 的固定利率證券採用子彈式或鎖定結構，這為我們的主要現金流預期提供了高度的確定性。

Assuming the forward curve is realized, approximately 18% of the AOCI related to the securities losses will accrete back into equity by the end of 2025, increasing tangible book value per share by 5% before considering any future earnings. During the quarter, our $300 million share repurchase reduced our share count by 6.7 million shares.

假設遠期曲線實現，到 2025 年底，與證券損失相關的 AOCI 中約有 18% 將重新累積到股權中，在考慮任何未來收益之前，每股有形賬面價值將增加 5%。在本季度，我們回購了 3 億美元的股票，導致我們的股票數量減少了 670 萬股。

Moving to our current outlook. We entered 2025 with strong momentum and a resilient balance sheet and remain confident in our ability to achieve record NII and full year positive operating leverage. We expect full year NII to increase 5% to 6%. This outlook uses the forward curve at the start of January, which assumes a 25 basis point rate cuts in March and October. We would not change our NII guidance for 2025, even if we assume that no cuts will occur.

轉向我們當前的展望。我們以強勁的發展勢頭和彈性的資產負債表進入 2025 年，並​​對我們實現創紀錄的 NII 和全年正營運槓桿的能力充滿信心。我們預計全年NII將成長5%至6%。本展望採用了 1 月初的遠期曲線，假設 3 月和 10 月利率分別下調 25 個基點。即使我們假設不會發生任何削減，我們也不會改變 2025 年的 NII 指導方針。

We expect full year average total loans to be up 3% to 4% compared to 2024, with the increase primarily driven by the broad-based improvement in C&I combined with continued growth in auto loans. We are assuming that the cash position, securities portfolio and commercial revolver utilization all remain relatively stable throughout 2025.

我們預計，全年平均總貸款額將比 2024 年增加 3% 至 4%，成長主要得益於工商企業的全面改善以及汽車貸款的持續成長。我們假設現金狀況、證券投資組合和商業循環信貸使用率在 2025 年全年都保持相對穩定。

Full year adjusted noninterest income is expected to be up 3% to 6%, reflecting continued revenue growth in commercial payments, capital markets, and wealth and asset management. partially offset by the continued runoff of the operating lease business, muted mortgage originations given the rate environment and the year-over-year impact of the final TRA revenue occurring in 2024.

全年調整後非利息收入預計將成長 3% 至 6%，反映出商業支付、資本市場以及財富和資產管理收入的持續成長。部分抵消了經營租賃業務的持續流失、考慮到利率環境導致的抵押貸款發放量低迷以及 2024 年最終 TRA 收入的同比影響。

We expect full year adjusted noninterest expense to be up 3% to 4% compared to 2024. Our expense outlook assumes accelerated branch openings in high-growth Southeast markets and continued sales force additions in middle market, commercial payments and wealth to increase our production capacity to support our strategic growth initiatives. In total, our guide implies full year adjusted revenue to be up 4% to 6%, PPNR to grow in the 6% to 7% range and positive operating leverage closer to 2%.

我們預計全年調整後非利息支出將比 2024 年增加 3% 至 4%。我們的費用前景假設在高成長的東南市場加速開設分支機構，並繼續在中端市場、商業支付和財富領域增加銷售隊伍，以提高我們的生產能力，支持我們的策略成長計畫。整體而言，我們的預期是全年調整後營收將成長 4% 至 6%，PPNR 將成長 6% 至 7%，正營業槓桿將接近 2%。

Moving to credit. We expect 2025 net charge-offs to be between 40 and 49 basis points. Assuming no changes in macroeconomic forecasts, we expect the provision to build between $50 million and $100 million due to loan growth.

轉向信貸。我們預計 2025 年淨沖銷額將在 40 至 49 個基點之間。假設宏觀經濟預測沒有變化，我們預期由於貸款成長，撥備將增加 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。

Moving to our outlook for the first quarter. We expect NII to be flat with the fourth quarter of 2024 as the benefits of loan growth, fixed rate asset repricing and the continued reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities should offset the impact of two fewer days. We expect average total loan balances to increase 2% in the first quarter due to continued momentum in C&I and auto.

轉向我們對第一季的展望。我們預計 NII 將與 2024 年第四季持平，因為貸款成長、固定利率資產重新定價和計息負債成本的持續降低的好處應該會抵消兩天減少的影響。由於工商業和汽車行業持續增長的勢頭，我們預計第一季平均總貸款餘額將增加 2%。

Excluding the impact of the TRA, we expect non-interest income to be down 6% to 7% compared to the fourth quarter, mainly due to normal seasonality in card spend, capital markets activity and other commercial banking revenue. First quarter adjusted non-interest expense is expected to be up 8% compared to the fourth quarter. As is always the case, our first quarter expenses are impacted by seasonal items associated with the timing of compensation awards and payroll taxes.

排除TRA的影響，我們預期非利息收入將較第四季下降6%至7%，這主要是由於信用卡消費、資本市場活動和其他商業銀行收入的正常季節性。預計第一季調整後非利息支出將較第四季成長 8%。像往常一樣，我們的第一季費用受到與薪資獎勵和工資稅時間相關的季節性項目的影響。

Excluding the seasonal items of approximately $100 million, expenses would be flat in the first quarter. We expect first quarter charge-offs to be in the 45 to 49 basis point range and expect the ACL build will be $10 million to $25 million due to loan growth.

除去約 1 億美元的季節性項目，第一季的支出將持平。我們預計第一季的沖銷額將在 45 至 49 個基點之間，並且由於貸款成長，預計 ACL 增量將達到 1,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。

Finally, we expect to execute $225 million in share repurchases in the first quarter with future quarter share repurchases dependent on the level of loan growth. We will continue to target our CET1 ratio around 10.5% and while we await more clarity around the future of the capital rules and other regulations.

最後，我們預計第一季將執行 2.25 億美元的股票回購，未來季度的股票回購取決於貸款成長水準。我們將繼續將 CET1 比率保持在 10.5% 左右，同時等待資本規則和其他法規未來的進一步明朗化。

In summary, with our resilient balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, and disciplined expense and credit risk management, 2025 is set to be a year of continuing long-term investments, record NII, positive operating leverage, and strong returns for our shareholders.

總而言之，憑藉我們穩健的資產負債表、多元化的收入來源以及嚴謹的費用和信用風險管理，2025 年將成為持續長期投資、創紀錄的 NII、正的經營槓桿和為股東帶來豐厚回報的一年。

With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open the call for Q&A.

現在，讓我將話題交給馬特開始問答環節。

Thanks, Bryan. Before we start Q&A, given the time we have this morning, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up and then return to the queue. If you have additional questions, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

謝謝，布萊恩。在我們開始問答之前，考慮到我們今天上午的時間，我們要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，然後返回隊列。接線員，如果您還有其他問題，請打開電話進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe Tim or Bryan, I was hoping you could just provide a little more context as to how you see loan demand developing through the year. Your commentary I'd say recently, it's been much more encouraging. You discussed things like the robust commercial line -- commercial pipelines, et cetera. So just maybe some additional color on how you see things developing.

大家早安。感謝您回答這個問題。也許是蒂姆或布萊恩，我希望你們可以提供更多背景信息，說明你們對全年貸款需求發展的看法。我想說，您最近的評論令人鼓舞得多。您討論了諸如強大的商業線路、商業管道等等。因此也許您對事態的發展有一些更進一步的看法。

No problem. Scott, I know this will a little bit like salt in the wound for Miami grad, but we just needed to demonstrate that it isn't only Ohio state that can put points up on the board early in the year.

沒問題。史考特，我知道這對邁阿密畢業生來說就像在傷口上撒鹽，但我們只是需要證明，並不是只有俄亥俄州立大學能夠在年初取得進步。

I mean, look, we were happy with the fourth quarter. Obviously, largely because we could see a building in the pipeline for a while. We just needed to get through the election to start to see some of that pull through. And I think it along with the sort of as sales force additions continued activity are going to set us up nicely.

我的意思是，看，我們對第四季感到滿意。顯然，這主要是因為我們可以預見到一段時間內將會有一棟建築在規劃中。我們只需要透過選舉就能看到一些成果。我認為，它與銷售隊伍的增加以及持續的活動一起，將為我們帶來良好的結果。

Like we've talked a lot about the importance of having a diversified loan origination sources, because sometimes some channels would work when others didn't. I think in the fourth quarter, most of the channels did.

就像我們經常談論擁有多元化貸款發放來源的重要性一樣，因為有時某些管道會起作用，而其他管道則不會。我認為在第四季度，大多數管道都做到了這一點。

On the consumer side of the equation, auto is strong for us all year last year. I think we were asked a lot when there were several other banks getting out of the business, why we were committed to it and we talked about the fact that it's cyclical, but it can be great at certain points in the cycle. And we're at one of those points where it's quite beneficial. So we think we'll have good things there. Home equity, both the fintech platforms had a strong finish to the year, and I think we'll continue to grow moderately coming into this year.

從消費角度來看，去年全年我們的汽車業務表現強勁。我想，當其他幾家銀行退出該業務時，我們被問了很多次，為什麼我們堅持做這項業務，我們談到這個事實：它是周期性的，但在周期的某些階段它可以做得很好。我們正處於一個非常有利的階段。因此我們認為我們在那裡將會擁有美好的事物。房屋淨值，兩個金融科技平台在今年都取得了強勁的業績，我認為今年我們將繼續保持適度成長。

On the commercial side of the equation, the growth that we saw was really broad-based. We got about a quarter's worth of production in the six weeks following the election as the backlog and the pipeline started to clear on a sequential basis, 13 of the 15 regions and two out of three verticals roughly showed growth during the quarter. And while we did get a little bit of a benefit from seasonality, in particular, in areas like mortgage warehouse and trade finance, I think the underlying characteristics would support above-market growth.

從商業角度來看，我們看到的成長確實是廣泛的。隨著積壓訂單和管道開始陸續清理，我們在選舉後的六週內完成了約一個季度的產量，15 個地區中的 13 個以及三分之二的垂直行業在本季度大致實現了增長。雖然我們確實從季節性中獲得了一點好處，特別是在抵押倉庫和貿易融資等領域，但我認為潛在的特徵將支持高於市場的成長。

We're still sitting on a record pipeline level in the middle market. That is definitely supported by the sales force additions that we made last year. You can see that in the numbers. And we got a 1% pickup in utilization, which I just think is encouraging.

我們在中階市場的通路水準仍處於創紀錄水準。這無疑得到了我們去年增加銷售團隊的支持。您可以從數字中看到這一點。我們的利用率提高了 1%，我認為這令人鼓舞。

We asked clients, we got to talk to about two dozen clients following the election, just about how they feel about the year. More than 80% of them indicated they were more optimistic for 2025 than they were 2024. About half of them indicated they were accelerating planned investments, about third of those said they were going to support those investments through increased credit utilization or new facilities. There's definitely a lot more optimism on the M&A front.

我們詢問了客戶，在選舉之後，我們與大約二十幾位客戶進行了交談，詢問他們對這一年的感受。超過 80% 的受訪者表示，他們對 2025 年的前景比對 2024 年更樂觀。其中約一半表示正在加快計畫投資，約三分之一表示將透過增加信貸利用率或新設施來支持這些投資。併購方面肯定存在較多樂觀情緒。

The flights in the (inaudible) here since that's what I always worry about. Labor availability is the single biggest concern that we hear from middle market clients more so than inflation or interest rates at this point or even supply chain issues tied to tariffs. So overall, I think it's an encouraging outlook. And just as the game last night reminded us with (inaudible) names, late rally, you don't want to declare victory at the end of the first quarter either.

這裡的航班（聽不清楚），因為這是我一直擔心的事情。目前，我們從中端市場客戶那裡聽到的最大的擔憂是勞動力的可用性，甚至比通貨膨脹或利率，或與關稅相關的供應鏈問題更為嚴重。所以總的來說，我認為這是一個令人鼓舞的前景。正如昨晚的比賽用（聽不清楚）名字、後期反擊提醒我們的那樣，你也不想在第一節結束時宣布勝利。

Perfect. And like all the analogies in there. And then Bryan, I think you had suggested you wouldn't change the guide based on more or fewer cuts, implies you're, I guess, pretty agnostic to changes in rates. How would you characterize your rate sensitivity now versus where you'd like it to be? I'm guessing it's pretty much where you want it, but I would just appreciate your thoughts.

完美的。就像其中所有的類比一樣。然後布萊恩，我認為你曾暗示過你不會根據降息的幅度多或少來改變指南，這意味著你對利率的變化相當不確定。與您希望的利率敏感度相比，您現在如何描述利率敏感度？我猜這幾乎就是您想要的，但我還是很感激您的想法。

Yeah, we're pretty happy right where we are. We're fairly neutral right now. And as Tim talked about, the diversification of our loan origination platforms as well as the inherent flexibility that the liquidity on our balance sheet provides, it gives us a lot of letters to be modest -- a little bit asset sensitive, a little bit liability sensitive depending on what the environment provides. So we like that positioning in this environment right now.

是的，我們對現在的狀況很滿意。我們目前相當中立。正如蒂姆所說，我們的貸款發放平台的多樣化以及資產負債表上的流動性所提供的固有靈活性，讓我們在很多方面保持謙虛——有點資產敏感，有點負債敏感，這取決於環境提供的情況。所以我們喜歡目前這種環境下的定位。

Perfect. Alright, thank you guys.

完美的。好的，謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克·梅奧。

Hi. I'm going to ask a long question, just looking for a really short answer. That's not that is Look, you're talking about record pipelines and middle market, 1% higher loan utilization, 13 to 15 markets have picked up, two of three verticals have picked up. It seems like your customers are more positive. Are you calling the turn for commercial loan growth for Fifth Third? Are you calling it for the industry? Are you calling it for both? And what's your confidence level around that?

你好。我要問一個長問題，只是想尋求一個非常簡短的答案。不是那樣看，你談論的是創紀錄的管道和中端市場，貸款利用率提高 1%，13 到 15 個市場已經回暖，三個垂直市場中有兩個已經回暖。看起來您的客戶更加積極了。您是否認為五三銀行商業貸款成長已到轉捩點？您是代表業界來呼籲嗎？您是同時調用這兩個嗎？您對此有信心嗎？

If you want a short answer, then my answer, maybe. Mike, the thing that I always worry about is uncertainty, right? I think I said in my prepared remarks, the economy is a pretty complex system. It is resistant a simulation and it can change pretty unpredictably. The backdrop is more favorable than it has been.

如果您想要一個簡短的答案，那麼我的回答是，也許吧。麥克，我總是擔心不確定性，對嗎？我想我在準備好的發言中說過，經濟是一個相當複雜的系統。它無法模擬並且可以發生難以預測的變化。目前的背景比以前更有利。

Like you're a customer, you have 100 basis points benefit in rate cuts you have more certainty over the direction of travel on regulation. I think we're going to have to watch a lot of the discussions we had on the labor market and labor availability related to questions on immigration, deportations, and otherwise, we're going to have much more clarity there in relatively short order.

就像您是客戶一樣，您在降息時可獲得 100 個基點的優惠​​，您對監管的發展方向有更大的確定性。我認為，我們將不得不關注有關勞動力市場和勞動力可用性的討論，這些問題與移民、驅逐出境等問題有關，我們將在相對較短的時間內得到更清晰的答案。

And they think if those things come about and we don't see big supply chain disruption, yes, we should continue to see some expansion on the C&I portfolio. Just don't bake in 12% annualized growth, please, into your models for Fifth Third.

他們認為，如果這些事情發生並且我們沒有看到嚴重的供應鏈中斷，是的，我們應該繼續看到 C&I 投資組合的一些擴張。請不要將 12% 的年化成長率納入 Fifth Third 的模型中。

Sounds good. All right, thank you.

聽起來不錯。好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

Hi, good morning. This is Thomas Leddy standing in for Gerard. You saw a good drop in deposit rates in the fourth quarter. Could you just give us a little more color on what your outlook is for deposit rates in 2025, assuming the Fed is finished cutting?

嗨，早安。這是代替杰拉德的托馬斯·萊迪。您將看到第四季存款利率大幅下降。假設聯準會完成降息，能否進一步說明您對 2025 年存款利率的預測？

Yeah. We'll continue to get a little bit of cost out if the Fed is done at this point. We have a little bit of first quarter tailwind benefiting in this space as we'll get some full quarter impact of the December cut. Additionally, we have almost $8 billion of CDs maturing in the first quarter. That's at a weighted average rate of about 4.3% right now. That's going to give us some flexibility as well.

是的。如果聯準會此時結束行動，我們將繼續減少一點成本。我們在第一季獲得了一些好處，因為我們將獲得 12 月降息對整個季度的影響。此外，我們第一季有近 80 億美元的 CD 到期。目前的加權平均利率約為 4.3%。這也將為我們提供一些靈活性。

Beyond that, it's really going to be dependent on loan growth. If it is -- if it becomes a more robust loan growth year potentially, we do think deposit competition could tick up a little bit. But in general, we feel good about our positioning. With the cash position, we're in a spot where if we needed to, we could actually take down our loan -- improve our loan-to-deposit ratio a little bit and fund some of that loan growth with that excess cash, like we did this quarter. But we have a lot of flexibility to navigate those costs.

除此之外，它實際上將取決於貸款成長。如果是這樣——如果今年的貸款成長潛力更加強勁，我們確實認為存款競爭可能會略有加劇。但整體而言，我們對自己的定位感到滿意。有了現金狀況，如果需要的話，我們實際上可以減少貸款——稍微改善我們的貸存比，並用多餘的現金為部分貸款增長提供資金，就像我們本季度所做的那樣。但我們有很大的彈性來控制這些成本。

Okay, that's helpful. And then just quickly, can you give us any color on the uptick we saw in C&I nonaccruals this quarter?

好的，這很有幫助。然後您能否快速告訴我們本季 C&I 未計專案上升的情況？

Yes, it's Greg. So the increase was really driven by commercial or about an average loan size of $32 million. No discernible industry or geographic trends, no concentrations amongst borrowers. We remain within a few basis points above our 10-year commercial average. So relatively flat from a 10-year average perspective.

是的，他是格雷格。因此，成長實際上是由商業貸款或平均貸款規模約 3,200 萬美元推動的。沒有明顯的行業或地理趨勢，借款人之間沒有集中度。我們仍比十年商業平均高出幾個基點。因此從 10 年平均值來看相對穩定。

And as you know, each of these credits, NPA credits get individually evaluated. We assess those based on the financial risk, and those results are captured in our financial results, either through a specific reserve or a charge-off.

如您所知，每個學分、NPA 學分都會單獨評估。我們根據財務風險對這些進行評估，並透過特定儲備或沖銷將這些結果反映在我們的財務結果中。

The largest of the NPA inflows this quarter is expected to pay off or pay down within the first half of the year, either through debt reduction or like I said, the full payoff. And it's a great example of how we're working with borrowers experiencing stress to reach outcomes that are mutually beneficial.

本季最大的不良資產流入預計將在今年上半年內償還或減少，要么通過減少債務，要么像我說的那樣，全額償還。這是我們如何與面臨壓力的借款人合作以達成互利結果的一個很好的例子。

Okay, great. That's helpful color. Thank you for taking my questions.

好的，太好了。這是很有幫助的顏色。感謝您回答我的問題。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey, good morning. Tim, I guess maybe just going back to the where you start in terms of consistent investments in branches, Southeast. Just remind us around the payoff that you had from branches opened two, three, four years ago.

嘿，早安。提姆，我想也許只是回到你開始的地方，就東南部分支機構的持續投資而言。只要提醒我們您兩年、三年、四年前開設的分店所獲得的回報即可。

As we think about -- I mean, again, if loan growth picks up for the industry, that's great, should we think of Fifth Third as someone that outperforms on loan and deposit growth given these investments. So give us a sense of what the payoff has been as you measure these investments? And maybe even talk about like any specific markets, areas where the new -- the growth for 2025 is planned. Thanks.

當我們思考——我的意思是，如果行業貸款成長加快，那當然很好，考慮到這些投資，我們是否應該將五三銀行視為貸款和存款成長表現優異的公司。那麼，當您衡量這些投資時，請我們了解其回報如何？甚至可能談論任何特定市場，並計劃在 2025 年實現新增長的領域。謝謝。

Yeah, I'll take the second half of that. I'll let Brian talk to the pay off, the first half of this.

是的，我會選擇後半部。我會讓布萊恩談談這件事的前半部。

Yeah. The weighted average age of our Southeast branches now, especially the new builds are still in the early innings, right? It's three years on average is where we are right now, and we're going to build another $50 million in 2025. And so we're still in the early ramp periods from an average sense perspective.

是的。我們東南分行目前的加權平均年齡，特別是新建分行，仍處於早期階段，對嗎？我們現在的平均投資時間為三年，2025 年我們將再投入 5,000 萬美元。因此，從平均角度來看，我們仍處於早期成長期。

So it puts us in a position from a customer acquisition perspective where we can drive and continue to drive significant deposit growth, similar to what you've seen from us over the last couple of years, and that will be a big driver then of the NII performance.

因此，從客戶獲取的角度來看，我們可以推動並繼續推動存款大幅成長，類似於過去幾年我們所看到的情況，這將成為 NII 表現的一大推動力。

On the asset side of the sheet, it's more related to the sales force additions that we've been making. The teams that we've hired in new markets as well as just the 20% increase in middle market head count that we've -- middle market sales head count that we've increased over the last couple of years. So those will be all will be strong tailwinds for us from an NII perspective.

在資產負債表方面，它與我們一直在增加的銷售團隊更相關。我們在新市場招募的團隊以及中端市場員工數量增加了 20%——過去幾年來，我們的中端市場銷售員工數量增加。所以從 NII 的角度來看，這些對我們來說都是強烈的順風。

Yeah. And I think the call back here is what we talk about a lot the degree to which we drive flexibility. The nice thing about having these engines online is it really does give us the ability to toggle between growing deposits when we want to do that or leveraging back that we have great liquidity to manage margins. So we make those decisions based on the environment and what the needs of the balance sheet are, as Bryan was saying.

是的。我認為，這裡我們經常討論的是我們推動彈性的程度。這些線上引擎的好處在於，它確實使我們能夠在需要時在增加存款之間切換，或者利用我們擁有的大量流動性來管理保證金。因此，正如布萊恩所說的，我們根據環境和資產負債表的需求做出這些決定。

In terms of the markets, you can sort of think about that what we've done in a few waves here. The first wave, the new branch builds were disproportionately concentrated in Nashville, North Carolina, and in Southwest Florida. The next wave here when you look at the branches coming online this year and next year. The Southeast Coast, so not Dade County, but Broward North, Central Florida, and North Florida will all see a material increase in branch activity along with South Carolina. And I think we get our first branch opened in Birmingham this year.

就市場而言，你可以思考我們在這裡分幾波做了什麼。第一波，新分公司的建設主要集中在北卡羅來納州的納許維爾和佛羅裡達州西南部。當您看到今年和明年上線的分支機構時，您會看到下一波浪潮。東南海岸（不是戴德縣），而是布勞沃德北部、佛羅裡達中部、佛羅裡達北部以及南卡羅來納州的分支機構活動都將大幅增加。我認為我們今年將在伯明翰開設第一家分店。

The other big driver in a two- to three-year time frame, less so in 2025, is that we're going to see a nice pick up in Atlanta and in the Atlanta area. We have several branches that will be coming only there.

未來兩到三年內的另一個重要驅動因素（在 2025 年這一因素不那麼重要）是，我們將看到亞特蘭大和亞特蘭大地區的良好復甦。我們有幾家分店只在那裡營業。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess maybe just one quick one on the fees. Maybe you don't have kind of as deeper for capital markets franchises, some of your peers. But just give us a sense of when we look at slide 7, wealth, payments, markets. How dependent is that revenue growth on actually balance sheeting loan growth or loans? And are those -- should we view any of those as a tool for client acquisition?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想我們再簡單問一下費用問題。也許您對資本市場特許經營權的了解不如您的一些同行深入。但是，當我們看第 7 張投影片時，請給我們介紹一下財富、支付和市場。收入成長對實質資產負債表貸款成長或貸款的依賴程度有多大？我們是否應該將其中任何一個視為獲取客戶的工具？

Yeah. Okay. Great question. I'll just take it by business. So wealth, not dependent on balance sheeting loans. We have like $7 in AUM for every $1 in deposits and what, $15 or something like that in AUM for every $1 in loans. It really is a wealth management sort of fiduciary focused franchise. It is not balance sheet dependent at all.

是的。好的。好問題。我只是照公事來做。因此財富並不依賴資產負債表貸款。我們的每 1 美元存款就有 7 美元的 AUM，而每 1 美元貸款就有 15 美元或類似的 AUM。這實際上是一種以受託人為中心的財富管理特許經營。它根本不依賴資產負債表。

Commercial payments, it's sort of half-half, right? I gave the number there that 40% of the new relationships we added last year where payments led, say that another direction. We added almost one new commercial payment relationship that have no credit attached to it for every relationship that we did. But certainly, the balance sheet supports what has been high single digit, low double-digit growth rates. It's just not reliant on it. And the new line platform, in particular, is an important driver there.

商業支付，一半一半吧？我給出的數字是，我們去年新增的關係中有 40% 是由付款引領的，這是另一個方向。我們幾乎增加了一種新的商業支付關係，但每建立一種關係都沒有附加任何信用。但可以肯定的是，資產負債表支持著高個位數和低兩位數的成長率。它只是不依賴它。尤其是新的生產線平台，是一個重要的推動力。

On the capital market side of the equation, much more of what we do in that space is essentially cross-selling to existing commercial banking clients. We built a really strong middle market franchise. The hedging activity is great there. That would happen principally to clients who make use of the balance sheet.

在資本市場方面，我們在該領域所做的更多工作本質上是向現有商業銀行客戶進行交叉銷售。我們建立了真正強大的中端市場特許經營權。那裡的對沖活動非常活躍。這主要發生在使用資產負債表的客戶身上。

The M&A activity, our M&A franchise, half the engagements roughly come from inside the house as opposed to being independent, which is what we want, right? It's the mechanism for monetizing the attachment point that you get out of the commercial lending business. And certainly, as it relates to the CIB strategy, the focus on capital markets growth there really does link.

在我們的併購業務中，大約有一半的業務來自公司內部，而不是獨立完成，這正是我們想要的，對嗎？這是將商業貸款業務中獲得的附著點貨幣化的機制。當然，由於它與 CIB 策略相關，因此對資本市場成長的關注確實存在聯繫。

I just believe we have a long way to go to get to full penetration inside our existing book of business. So I'm pretty confident in our ability to continue to grow capital markets fees at a rate that exceeds the balance sheet by a healthy margin.

我只是相信，要全面滲透我們現有的業務，還有很長的路要走。因此，我對我們繼續以超過資產負債表的健康幅度增加資本市場費用的能力非常有信心。

That's helpful. Thanks, Tim.

這很有幫助。謝謝，蒂姆。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

摩根士丹利的馬南‧戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia)。請繼續。

Hey Manan.

嘿，馬南。

Hi, good morning. On capital, here you on keeping the reported CET1 at 10.5%. The question was how are we thinking about CET1, including AOCI, I know some of your peers are operating or looking to operate in that 9% to 10% range. There is some volatility here on the long end of the curve. So I guess the question is, do you have a target for CET1, including AOCI? And how are you thinking about buybacks and capital management from here?

嗨，早安。關於資本，這裡您需要將報告的 CET1 保持在 10.5%。問題是我們如何看待 CET1，包括 AOCI，我知道你們的一些同行正在運作或希望在 9% 到 10% 的範圍內運作。曲線的長端存在一些波動。所以我想問題是，您是否有 CET1（包括 AOCI）的目標？您如何考慮從現在開始的回購和資本管理？

Yes. We do -- the expectation would be to keep CET1 inclusive of AOCI north of 8% right now, but we would expect that to continue to increase over time with the pull to par on the investment portfolio. The AFS portfolio is actually right now in the belly of the curve. The duration of that portfolio is below four. It's about 3.8 right now.

是的。我們確實如此——目前預期包括 AOCI 在內的 CET1 應保持在 8% 以上，但我們預計，隨著投資組合向平價靠攏，該比率將隨著時間的推移而繼續上升。AFS 投資組合目前實際上正處於曲線的中間。該投資組合的久期不到四年。目前大約是 3.8。

And if you look at the price sensitivity of the portfolio, it has moved in significantly. So we feel really good about the AOCI accretion that we should be seeing over the next couple of years, which gives us confidence that dependent on whatever the capital rules may be, we're going to have no issues with meeting that over time.

如果你看一下投資組合的價格敏感度，你會發現它已經發生了顯著的變化。因此，我們對未來幾年應該看到的 AOCI 成長感到非常滿意，這讓我們有信心，無論資本規則如何，我們都能夠隨著時間的推移毫無問題地實現這一目標。

From a buyback perspective, from here, our capital priorities are going to continue to be supporting organic growth, maintaining a strong dividend and then buybacks. And so the ultimate level of buybacks will be around that 10.5% level and where that triangulates what the end-of-period loan growth we deliver each quarter.

從回購的角度來看，從現在開始，我們的資本重點將繼續是支持有機成長，保持強勁的股息，然後回購。因此，最終的回購水準將在 10.5% 左右，這將決定我們每季的期末貸款成長率。

Got it. So on the -- I hear you that you keep that -- you accrete through that CET1, including AOCI. Is there any level at which it will -- it could impact loan growth, drive RWA diets at some stage?

知道了。因此 — — 我聽說您保留了這一點 — — 您透過 CET1 進行積累，包括 AOCI。它是否在某種程度上會影響貸款成長，並在某種程度上推動 RWA 縮減？

We don't see anything at this point that would create a situation where we would pull back meaningfully from an RWA perspective.

目前，我們還沒有看到任何會導致我們從 RWA 角度大幅撤退的情況。

Brian Foran, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Brian Foran。

Welcome back, Brian.

歡迎回來，布萊恩。

Thank you. So on the commercial payments, first of all, thank you for breaking that out and giving us more disclosure. I know it's an area you've invested and feel like you're kind of pulling away from the pack. When we look at it being 20% of fees up 8% year-over-year, I think you kind of gave us a couple of times 40% of new commercial relationships where payments led.

謝謝。關於商業支付，首先感謝您對此進行闡述並向我們提供更多披露。我知道這是你投入的一個領域，但感覺你有點脫離了隊伍。當我們看到費用佔比 20% 比去年同期增長 8% 時，我想您為我們帶來了幾倍於 40% 的新商業關係，而這些關係都是由付款帶來的。

Do you have any sense like if we got the disclosure from all your peers, are you a little higher? Are you a lot higher? And what's the main metric you think you would stand out on?

您是否覺得，如果我們從所有同行那裡得到了披露的信息，您的排名是否會提高一些？你是不是高了很多？您認為您會在哪些主要指標上脫穎而出？

Yeah, great question. So I will say to begin with the reason that we changed our reporting is because it is confusing to see it. So it was confusing for us previously. It's confusing for peers. The metrics that I like here because they are public, and they're transparent as you can do a lot of comparison on your own, utilizing data from sources like NACHA or the Nielsen report or I think EY does a benchmarking study and otherwise. And you can look at total volumes per dollar of commercial deposits. And that essentially calculates a turnover ratio for you and the higher the turnover ratio, the more payment-centric business is.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我首先要說的是，我們改變報道方式的原因是因為它看起來令人困惑。所以之前我們感到很困惑。這會讓同行感到困惑。我喜歡這裡的指標，因為它們是公開的，而且很透明，因為你可以自己做很多比較，利用來自 NACHA 或尼爾森報告等來源的數據，或者我認為安永會進行基準研究等等。您可以查看每美元商業存款的總量。這其實是為你計算了一個週轉率，週轉率越高，業務就越以支付為中心。

So we're definitely overweight this business relative to others. Like I think we have 3.5 times roughly the market share if you were to look at the individual product categories nationally in major commercial payments rails that we would have in C&I lending just as a point of triangulation. And I know we're growing faster than the industry is overall because, again, we got to look at the benchmarking data on industry growth rates.

因此，相對於其他業務，我們肯定是加大了對這項業務的投入。例如，如果從全國主要商業支付管道中的各個產品類別來看，我認為我們的市場份額大約是 C&I 貸款市場份額的 3.5 倍，僅作為三角測量點。我知道我們的成長速度比整個產業都要快，因為我​​們必須再次查看產業成長率的基準數據。

I think the other thing that's been helpful for us is because we have this business working with third-party software developers, a little bit counterintuitively, we're actually a beneficiary when traditional FI is market share to non-banks because new one grows when partners like Stripe or Corte or whatever, Toast, Nova, et cetera, [Trustly Breks] when they outgrow the players in their individual markets. And we get good data from Granite Associates.

我認為對我們有幫助的另一件事是，因為我們有與第三方軟體開發商合作的業務，有點違反直覺的是，當傳統金融機構向非銀行機構搶佔市場份額時，我們實際上是受益者，因為當 Stripe、Corte 等合作夥伴、Toast、Nova 等、[Trustly Breks] 超越其各自市場的參與者時，新的金融機構就會增長。我們從 Granite Associates 獲得了良好的數據。

It suggests we have sort of top in the peer group penetration rate in terms of active treasury management relationships with our lending customers. I'm not going to gap the exact number, but it's a mid-80s number for us in terms of penetration there.

這表明，在與貸款客戶建立積極的資金管理關係方面，我們在同業滲透率方面名列前茅。我不會透露確切的數字，但就滲透率而言，我們的數字應該在 80 年代中期。

So like that's the way I would sort of debt reckoning, try to triangulate our position relative to others, but it would be great if everybody adopted our captions and then you'd be able to know.

所以，這就是我對債務進行清算的方式，試著確定我們相對於其他人的地位，但如果每個人都採用我們的主張，那麼你就能夠知道了，這就太好了。

It would. Maybe if I could sneak in a follow-up on the guidance on page 15. Definitely appreciate your comments going out of your way to mention that 2024 is going to hit the guidance on all lines and very few banks did that.

會的。也許我可以偷偷地跟進第 15 頁的指導。非常感謝您的評論，您特意提到 2024 年將在各個方面達到指導目標，而且很少有銀行做到這一點。

So you're assuming giving us a down the fairway plan here. You've touched on all the individual line items, but maybe just kind of wrapping it up, if there was kind of one or two upside and downside risks you were thinking about for the year, what would you highlight within everything you've given us?

所以你假設在這裡給我們一個球道計劃。您已經談到了所有單獨的項目，但也許只是總結一下，如果您考慮今年有一兩個上行和下行風險，您會在給我們的所有內容中強調什麼？

Yes. I think loan growth is certainly going to be a question, and the deposit costs will be a question. So I think just with my treasury background, I'm always going to be nervous about NII, but we certainly feel good about the trajectory that we're on.

是的。我認為貸款成長肯定會是一個問題，存款成本也會是一個問題。因此，我認為憑藉我的財務背景，我總是對 NII 感到緊張，但我們對我們所處的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

And then just overall market activity from a fee perspective. We had a fairly soft first half of 2024 in coal markets. We're not expecting that to repeat in 2025, but those market-based businesses are always the one where you could see some volatility.

然後從費用角度來看整體市場活動。2024 年上半年煤炭市場相當疲軟。我們並不認為這種情況會在 2025 年重演，但那些以市場為基礎的業務總是會出現一些波動。

Awesome. Thank you so much.

驚人的。太感謝了。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore。

Hey John.

嘿，約翰。

Morning. Just on the -- back to capital, on the M&A front, just -- I hear you on your deployment priorities, organic is still top priority then dividend and buybacks. How are you thinking about M&A here, both from a non-bank M&A perspective, but also for -- in the whole bank perspective given the regime change in Washington and the regulatory posture changing in need for scale? Just want to get your updated thoughts there, Tim.

早晨。回到資本，在併購方面，我聽說您的部署優先事項是有機成長，然後是股息和回購。考慮到華盛頓的政權更迭和監管態勢因規模需求而變化，您如何看待這裡的併購？不僅從非銀行併購的角度，也從整個銀行的角度？只是想了解你的最新想法，提姆。

Sure. No, happy to do it. I mean the next tier matters, right? Like the US has the least consolidated banking system in the world. And I believe the banking system is also the least consolidated sector in the US economy. So it's a little bit like holding back floodwaters. Eventually, there's going to be more consolidation in the space, and I think it's appropriate. Our treasury secretary been was pretty clear in his testimony that he wants more competition for the larger banks.

當然。不，很樂意這麼做。我的意思是下一層很重要，對吧？就像美國擁有世界上最不整合的銀行體系。我相信銀行體係也是美國經濟中整合程度最低的部門。這有點像是阻擋洪水。最終，該領域將會出現更多的整合，我認為這是合適的。我們的財政部長在他的證詞中明確表示，他希望大型銀行能更有效地參與競爭。

I think in our case, we could have made the math work prior to this year, and I'm pretty confident we could have gotten a deal approved prior to this year. So I don't know that our foster is any different in that regard. We value the density in the markets where we compete.

我認為，就我們的情況而言，我們可以在今年之前完成計算，而且我非常有信心我們可以在今年之前獲得協議批准。所以我不知道我們的寄養在這方面有什麼不同。我們重視我們競爭市場的密度。

We've been clear about that. We're believers in the value of diversification and having an appropriate balance inside the franchise and we're believers in having the capacity to not just absolute investment levels, I mean, people get overfocused on that, but to be able to have the human capital to take advantage of a lot of the tech innovation that's going on.

我們已經清楚這一點了。我們相信多元化的價值並在特許經營中保持適當的平衡，我們相信不僅要有能力達到絕對的投資水平，我的意思是，人們過於關注這一點，還要能夠擁有人力資本來利用正在進行的大量技術創新。

I mean, I was out in the Valley three, four weeks ago now, and the energy is all the way back there in terms of what's coming down the pike and banks need to be prepared to compete with people who are tech native because I think this administration, in addition to lowering some of the regulatory issues that we've had is going to make it easier for those guys to persist as well.

我的意思是，三、四周前我去了矽谷，那裡的活力已經完全恢復，銀行需要做好與科技原住民競爭的準備，因為我認為這屆政府除了降低一些監管問題之外，還會讓這些人更容易堅持下去。

And what I don't believe in and what we're never going to do is to just pursue scale at any cost, like we have the ability to grow without doing M&A. I don't think everybody can say that, but you can see it when you look at the growth rates in the franchise. And so we want to make the right decisions there as the opportunities materialize.

我不相信而且我們永遠不會做的就是不惜一切代價追求規模，好像我們有能力不進行併購就實現增長一樣。我認為並不是每個人都能這麼說，但是當你看到特許經營的成長率時你就會看到這一點。因此，我們希望在機會出現時做出正確的決策。

On the non-bank front, we continue to be interested in adding to the capacity that we have in the managed services and the commercial payments. So that is an area where we've been active.

在非銀行方面，我們繼續有興趣增強我們在託管服務和商業支付方面的能力。這是我們一直活躍的領域。

We're not big buyers of big properties, so don't be looking for us to buy a publicly traded tech company and blow off a bunch of capital in that way. But you do find businesses where the core product is proven product market fit, but they are lacking distribution on occasion, and those are things that we like because there's real franchise value when you're getting tech in a proven product that doesn't exist in the same way as when you're acquiring people and then you have to essentially buy that again every three to five years in some of the more talent-driven businesses.

我們不是大型房地產的大買家，所以不要指望我們會收購一家上市科技公司，然後以這種方式浪費大量資金。但你確實會發現，有些企業的核心產品是經過驗證的、適合市場的產品，但有時缺乏分銷，而這些都是我們喜歡的，因為當你獲得經過驗證的產品中的技術時，它才具有真正的特許經營價值，而這種價值不像你招募人才那樣存在，然後你必須每三到五年在一些更依賴人才的企業中再次購買一次。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then separately, it's clear you guys have certainly been executing better than many of your peers in terms of your growth and your returns and hitting your targets, as you had noted earlier in the call as well.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後另外，很明顯，你們在成長、回報和實現目標方面的表現肯定比許多同行要好，正如你們早些時候在電話會議中提到的那樣。

As we look at your broader returns, I mean, you're here in the high teens, 18% to 19% return on tangible common equity here. You're in the mid-50s efficiency ratio. As you look at in 2025, which is a year where we expect some underlying improvement and a few macro backdrop. How do you view the return profile for Fifth Third, as you're looking at ROTCE and operating efficiency for the year and then possibly even beyond that, where do you think the returns are heading towards?

當我們查看您的整體回報時，我的意思是，您的有形普通股權益回報率處於 18% 至 19% 左右。您的效率比率處於 50 年代中期。展望 2025 年，我們預計這一年會出現一些潛在的改善和一些宏觀背景。您如何看待 Fifth Third 的回報率情況？您正在考慮今年的 ROTCE 和營運效率，甚至可能超出這個範圍，您認為回報率將會走向何方？

Yes. I mean, here's what I would say. I take great pride in the fact that you don't have to believe like a long deductive logic chain in order to get to a place where you're confident that we can achieve returns in excess of our cost of equity. Like we're kind of in or within reach of our return targets in terms of what we think are good places to run the company.

是的。我的意思是，這就是我想說的。我感到非常自豪的是，您不必相信像長長的演繹邏輯鏈那樣，就能確信我們能夠實現超過股本成本的回報。就我們認為的經營公司的最佳地點而言，我們已經達到或接近了我們的回報目標。

So if you think about it in the context of stability, profitability, and growth, like we like the predictability of the business. We're proud of that. I don't think there's a lot of work that needs to be done there. We're neutrally positioned from an ALM perspective and defensive in terms of credit. I mean the fourth quarter production is an example. The piece were actually better on a dollar-weighted basis than our existing portfolio. So we feel good there.

因此，如果你從穩定性、獲利能力和成長的角度來考慮，我們會喜歡業務的可預測性。我們對此感到自豪。我認為那裡不需要做太多工作。從資產負債管理 (ALM) 角度來看，我們持中立立場，在信貸方面則採取防禦態度。我的意思是第四季的產量就是一個例子。從美元加權角度來看，這部分資產實際上比我們現有的投資組合更好。所以我們感覺很好。

At profitability, like the mid- to high teens and the return on tangible common equity in the mid-50s efficiency ratio feels pretty good. We'll get operating leverage this year if the year plays out as we expect, as Bryan said, I think it's probably closer to 2% in terms of what we'll produce.

在獲利能力方面，例如中高水平，以及有形普通股權益回報率在 50 年代中期的效率比率感覺相當不錯。如果今年的進展如我們預期的那樣，我們將獲得營運槓桿，正如布萊恩所說，我認為就我們的產量而言，這一槓桿可能更接近 2%。

But the goal for us then really isn't to try to find a way to get an 18% return to a 19% return or a 55% efficiency ratio to it sustain that level and grow tangible book value per share, right? That really is where the focus has got to be in terms of the sort of the next leg in the franchise, all assuming again that we have that more benign backdrop that was sort of the setup in your question.

但我們的目標實際上並不是試圖找到一種方法來將回報率從 18% 提高到 19% 或將效率比率提高到 55% 以維持這一水平並增加每股有形賬面價值，對嗎？這確實是該系列下一步發展的重點，所有這些都再次假設我們擁有更溫和的背景，也就是你問題中的設定。

Thanks, Tim, very helpful.

謝謝，蒂姆，非常有幫助。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Good morning. A little bit of any kind of nonfit question, but since you mentioned it, you said middle market customers, the biggest thing that they're highlighting is still some challenges in labor. And maybe that's -- I would assume that's impacting some of that loan demand or pipelines turning into actual volumes.

早安.有點任何類型的不合適的問題，但既然你提到它，你說中端市場客戶，他們強調的最大問題仍然是勞動力方面的一些挑戰。這可能是——我認為這會影響部分貸款需求或管道轉化為實際數量。

But are they hopeful that some of that dislocation will finally solve itself? Are they kind of trying to offset these challenges with tech that should kind of help at some point? Or I guess what's the plan, if they have any?

但是他們是否希望這種混亂局面最終能夠自行解決？他們是否試圖利用某種能夠在某種程度上提供幫助的技術來抵消這些挑戰？或者我猜他們有計劃嗎？

Yeah. No, that's a great question. I mean it sort of depends by sector, right? So let me say that in advance. On the manufacturing and logistics, wholesale distribution side of the business, there's no question that they're hopeful that they can get gains in tactic.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是這取決於各個行業，對嗎？因此，請讓我提前說一下。在製造、物流和批發分銷業務方面，毫無疑問他們希望能夠在策略上取得進展。

I've shared some examples of the facilities that we put in place to support the retooling of manufacturing facilities or warehouses so that said you're getting a lot more of your picking in high-volume items, as an example, done by robots, including robots that based on the forward order book, we'll actually restack racks and move SKUs around overnight so that the pickers when they come in, in the morning are more productive. So there is some of that.

我已經分享了一些我們為支持製造設施或倉庫改造而建立的設施的例子，也就是說，你可以用機器人來挑選更多的大批量物品，包括基於預定訂單的機器人，我們實際上會在夜間重新堆放貨架並移動 SKU，以便挑選人員在早上進來時更有效率。確實有一部分是這樣的。

I think in factors like health care, there's a hope that at some point here that the graduating classes from nursing schools and otherwise overtakes the demand and that they can rely a little less on the travel and nursing companies, unless personally optimistic there for our health care clients, but they're open for that. In a lot of the other sectors, like services, construction and retail and otherwise, I think there is a concern around the direction of travel on labor because the reality is we have a negative birth rate in the US

我認為，在醫療保健等因素方面，人們希望在某個時候護理學校和其他學校的畢業生人數能夠超過需求，這樣他們就可以減少對旅行和護理公司的依賴，除非我們個人對我們的醫療保健客戶持樂觀態度，但他們對此持開放態度。在許多其他行業，例如服務業、建築業、零售業等，我認為人們對勞動力流動方向有擔憂，因為現實情況是美國的出生率是負的

And we have, because of the just the demographic pyramid and the size of the baby boomer generation versus the Xs and the millennials. Like we have more people retiring every year right now than we have entering the workforce. And that's a structural problem that I don't think gets better unless you can boost productivity with technology.

而我們確實有這樣的情況，這是因為人口金字塔以及嬰兒潮世代與 X 世代和千禧世代的規模有對比。就像現在每年退休的人數比進入勞動市場的人數還多。這是一個結構性問題，我認為除非你能利用科技提高生產力，否則這個問題不會得到改善。

So you hear a mix of all those things when you talk to clients, some optimism that maybe the labor market accrual, but the jobs reports not suggesting that's happening. And we just have to wait and see on whether or not there's a functioning integration program that would support additional documented labor in the US

因此，當您與客戶交談時，您會聽到各種各樣的聲音，有些人對勞動力市場可能成長持樂觀態度，但就業報告並未表明這種情況正在發生。我們只需拭目以待，看看是否有一個行之有效的融合計劃，可以支持在美國有更多有證件的勞工

That's interesting color. And then you guys are pretty balanced, I think, between large corporate and middle market. Are there kind of different themes in the large corporate, meaning there are less pressure by labor? And then as you think about -- just bringing it all together, as you think about your C&I growth, you think it will be more large corporate or middle market driven this year if you had to guess? And then I'm done. Thank you.

那是有趣的顏色。我認為，你們在大型企業和中型市場之間實現了相當的平衡。大公司是否有不同的主題，這意味著勞動力壓力較小？然後，當您思考——將所有這些綜合起來，當您思考您的 C&I 增長時，如果您必須猜測的話，您認為今年它將更多地由大型企業或中型市場驅動嗎？然後我就完成了。謝謝。

Yes. I'll take the second one first. I think the goal here is balance. Like we want, over time, we have gotten more granular. We made some progress on granularity, which was an important part of the strategy of Fifth Third. So that sort of small business, business banking, middle market segment, ideally will grow a little bit faster than corporate banking.

是的。我先選擇第二個。我認為這裡的目標是平衡。正如我們所希望的那樣，隨著時間的推移，我們變得更加細緻。我們在粒度方面取得了一些進展，這是五三戰略的重要組成部分。因此，理想情況下，這種小型企業、商業銀行業務和中型市場部分的成長速度將比企業銀行業務稍快。

I don't expect corporate banking to outgrow the market. meaningfully that the plan was set to a good balance and consistent focus on granularity there, including within corporate banking, for that matter. You want the other part of it, Bryan. It's a good question.

我並不認為企業銀行業務的成長速度會超越市場。有意義的是，該計劃的製定達到了良好的平衡，並始終注重細節，包括公司銀行業務。你想要另一部分，布萊恩。這是個好問題。

Yeah, I mean I think in general, we do expect corporate banking to -- and the larger companies in general, have navigated the labor pressures, a little bit better than the middle market. We think that's a theme that is likely to continue.

是的，我認為總體而言，我們確實預期企業銀行業務——以及整體而言較大的公司，能夠比中型市場更好地應對勞動力壓力。我們認為這個主題可能會持續下去。

A lot of that just has to do with their investment capacity, their ability to invest in automation, their ability to shift to different labor markets, just tends to provide more flexibility and they also tend to be the businesses that have had a little bit more pricing power to be able to pass through some costs so that they could attract the right labor.

這在很大程度上與他們的投資能力、投資自動化的能力、轉向不同勞動力市場的能力有關，這些能力往往能夠提供更大的靈活性，而且他們往往是擁有更多定價權的企業，能夠轉嫁一些成本，從而吸引合適的勞動力。

So we think the corporate banking, I mean, we talk about it in banking, scale matters, and it matters in the C&I portfolio as well, I think we agree with that.

因此，我們認為企業銀行業務，我的意思是，我們在銀行業務中談論它，規模很重要，而且它在 C&I 投資組合中也很重要，我想我們同意這一點。

All right, great. Thank you for all that.

好的，太好了。謝謝你所做的一切。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

Hi, good morning. Just two quick follow-up questions. Bryan, as we think about the net interest income outlook, could you share with us how you expect net interest margin to traject from that 2 97. And do you have a view if we have a 4% neutral rate, what the normalized margin would be for Fifth Third under that scenario?

嗨，早安。僅需快速後續問題。布萊恩，當我們考慮淨利息收入前景時，您能否與我們分享您預計淨利差將從 2.97 年開始如何變化。如果我們有 4% 的中性利率，您認為在這種情況下 Fifth Third 的標準化利潤率是多少？

Yeah. We expect margin to continue to improve a few basis points each quarter throughout the year. Certainly, there's a big wildcard associated with the cash position in any individual quarter. The 7-basis point increase this quarter, obviously, it was partly attributable to that cash position coming down some due to that loan growth that we saw as well as liability management actions. We've been talking for a while now that getting back into the [320s] in this kind of rate environment is achievable for us.

是的。我們預計利潤率全年每季將持續提高幾個基點。當然，任何一個季度的現金狀況都存在著很大的不確定性。本季增加 7 個基點，顯然部分是由於我們看到的貸款成長以及負債管理行動導致現金狀況下降。我們已經討論了一段時間了，在這種利率環境下回到[320]的水平對我們來說是可以實現的。

Certainly, though, the shape of the curve and the mix of the balance sheet is going to be a big driver in that. But we feel good about the trajectory that we're on in both NII and NIM will continue to improve each quarter throughout the year.

不過，曲線的形狀和資產負債表的組合肯定會起到很大的推動作用。但我們對於 NII 和 NIM 的發展軌跡感到很滿意，預計全年每季都會持續改善。

Got it. And maybe the next follow-up question is for Tim. I believe the stressed capital buffer that your received was 3.2% last year. I'm wondering, as you think about the embedded risk in the balance sheet, if we think it's worth it to participate off cycle to revisit that stress capital buffer?

知道了。也許下一個後續問題是針對提姆的。我相信你們去年收到的壓力資本緩衝是 3.2%。我想知道，當您考慮資產負債表中隱含的風險時，我們是否認為值得參與週期外活動來重新審視壓力資本緩衝？

Yeah, great question. No, it doesn't make sense for us to do it just because it's not a binding constraint for us today, Erika. I am optimistic that we're going to get more transparency out of the stress tests given the Fed's announcement and subsequently, the litigation filing from the BPI, and that will be quite helpful. But today, whether that stress capital buffer was 2.5% or 3.2% or 3.5% really, it doesn't matter.

是的，很好的問題。不，僅僅因為這對我們來說今天不是一個約束性約束，我們這樣做是沒有意義的，艾莉卡。鑑於聯準會的聲明以及隨後 BPI 提起的訴訟，我樂觀地認為壓力測試將更加透明，這將非常有幫助。但今天，壓力資本緩衝到底是 2.5% 還是 3.2% 或 3.5% 其實並不重要。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克、珍妮·蒙哥馬利·史考特。

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to ask about additional C&I utilization as well as any upgrade downgrade trends from the criticized and classified.

謝謝。早安.只是想詢問有關額外的 C&I 利用率以及任何受到批評和保密的升級降級趨勢。

Yes. On the C&I utilization front, it moved up to about 1 point to -- it's in the 36% range at quarter end and has stayed in that range at the beginning of this quarter. We're not forecasting any significant change in utilization throughout the rest of the year and expect it to be relatively stable. And then, Greg?

是的。在 C&I 利用率方面，它上升了約 1 個百分點 - 在季度末處於 36% 的範圍內，並且在本季度初一直保持在這個範圍內。我們預測今年剩餘時間的使用率不會發生任何重大變化，並預計會相對穩定。然後呢，格雷格？

As relation to the [CRIP] as Bryan mentioned, we were down to [435 million] in the fourth quarter. Our ratio was down just over 7 7% 90% of the criticized portfolio including our NPAS are current. So I feel really good about the progress we made. We said last quarter on this call. We expected to see criticized reduce a little bit, continue to work through those troubled assets. So I feel good about the trend. I feel good about the portfolio. It continues to maintain a great balance mix, strong concentration limit disciplines. So I feel good about the current asset quality.

正如 Bryan 所提到的，與 [CRIP] 相關，我們在第四季度下降到了 [4.35 億]。我們的比率下降了 7.7% 多一點，包括我們的 NPAS 在內的受到批評的投資組合中有 90% 都是當前的。所以我對我們所取得的進展感到非常高興。我們在上個季度的電話會議上說過。我們希望看到批評減少，並繼續處理那些問題資產。所以我對這個趨勢感到很樂觀。我對這個投資組合感覺很好。它繼續保持良好的平衡組合和強大的集中限制原則。所以我對目前的資產品質感到滿意。

Great. We'll leave it there. Thank you both very muc.

偉大的。我們就把它留在那裡。非常感謝你們二位。

Thanks. Matt is signaling to me that we're on the way out. Before we go, I just wanted to say quickly that my thoughts continue to be with the people in California who've been impacted by the wildfires and especially our employees, clients, and partners who haven't worked there. We've been fortunate based on what I heard from our folks and directly from clients. I'm really proud of the commercial banking presence we've built in California over the past several years. It's been like a 50% compound annual growth rate, that's all middle market nearly self-funded. It's really -- it's been outstanding.

謝謝。馬特向我示意我們要出去了。在我們離開之前，我只想快速說一下，我的思緒始終與加州受到野火影響的人們同在，特別是那些沒有在那裡工作的員工、客戶和合作夥伴。從我們的員工和客戶直接回饋的情況來看，我們很幸運。我對我們過去幾年在加州建立的商業銀行業務感到非常自豪。它的複合年增長率高達 50%，所有中階市場幾乎都是自籌資金的。這確實--非常出色。

I'm going to have a personal connection out there, too, my dad grew up in the Altadena, Pasadena corridor and my grandparents relate the rest there. And those communities are really special to me and Fifth Third will do its part as part of equation to help those communities rebuilt, as I know the well. Matt?

我也會在那裡建立個人聯繫，我的父親在阿爾塔迪納、帕薩迪納走廊長大，我的祖父母也在那裡講述著其他的事情。這些社區對我來說真的很特別，正如我所了解的，五三學院將盡自己的一份力量幫助這些社區重建。馬特？

Thanks, Tim. And thanks, everyone, for your interest in Fifth Third. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Regina, you may now disconnect the call.

謝謝，蒂姆。感謝大家對 Fifth Third 的關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係部。里賈娜，你現在可以掛斷電話了。

That will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。