First Commonwealth Financial Corp (FCF) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the First Commonwealth Financial Corporation second quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加第一聯邦金融公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Thomas, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給財務和投資者關係副總裁瑞安·托馬斯 (Ryan Thomas)。請繼續。

Thanks, Regina, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss First Commonwealth Financial Corporation second quarter financial results. Participating on today's call will be Mike Price, President and CEO; Ginger Benson, Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer; Brian Carroll, Chief Credit Officer; and Mike McEwan, our Chief Lending Officer.

謝謝，雷吉娜，大家午安。感謝您今天加入我們討論第一聯邦金融公司第二季的財務表現。總裁兼執行長 Mike Price 將參加今天的電話會議； Ginger Benson，銀行行長兼首席營收長；布萊恩·卡羅爾，首席信貸官；和我們的首席貸款官 Mike McEwan。

As a reminder, a copy of yesterday's earnings release can be accessed by logging on to fcbanking.com and selecting the Investor Relations link at the top of the page.

提醒一下，可以透過登入 fcbanking.com 並選擇頁面頂部的投資者關係連結來存取昨天的收益發布副本。

We've also included a slide presentation on our Investor Relations website with supplemental information that will be referenced during today's call.

我們還在投資者關係網站上提供了幻燈片演示，其中包含今天電話會議期間將參考的補充資訊。

Before we begin, I need to caution listeners that this call will contain forward looking statements. Please refer to our forward-looking statements disclaimer on page 3 of the slide presentation for a description of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我需要提醒聽眾，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱投影片簡報第 3 頁的前瞻性聲明免責聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中反映的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性的描述。

Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Non-gaap financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of today's slide presentation.

今天的電話會議還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則財務指標應被視為我們根據公認會計原則編制的報告結果的補充，而不是替代。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

然後，我會將電話轉給麥克。

Hey, thank you, Ryan, and welcome everyone. Core earnings per share of $0.36 beat consensus estimates by $0.01 for the second quarter of 2024. Pretax, pre-provision net revenue was up by $3.6 million over last quarter. Headline numbers for the second quarter include a core return on assets of 1.29%, a core pretax pre-provision ROA of 1.88%, a core return on tangible common equity of 15.93% and a core efficiency ratio of 53.34%.

嘿，謝謝你，瑞安，歡迎大家。2024 年第二季核心每股收益為 0.36 美元，比市場普遍預期高出 0.01 美元。稅前撥備前淨收入比上季增加了 360 萬美元。第二季的主要數據包括核心資產報酬率為1.29%，核心稅前撥備資產報酬率為1.88%，核心有形普通股報酬率為15.93%，核心效率率為53.34%。

Importantly, the net interest margin expanded by 5 basis points to 3.57% as the increase in loan yields outpaced the increase in funding costs for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022 other trends follow loan outstanding's were flat, even as even as average. Deposit balances grew 8.7% in the second quarter. Looking at loans a little closer total loans grew just under 1% with growth centered on equipment financed and to a lesser extent, SBA.

重要的是，淨利差擴大了5 個基點，達到3.57%，因為貸款收益率的增幅自2022 年第四季以來首次超過融資成本的增幅，而未償貸款的其他趨勢則持平，甚至與平均水平持平。第二季存款餘額成長8.7%。仔細觀察貸款，總貸款成長了不到 1%，成長主要集中在設備融資以及較小程度的 SBA。

Over the last year, we pinched consumer loans, mortgages, home equity loans, and indirect auto, and have not chased volume at the expense of spread. We have moved prices up and now with the prospect of rate cuts, these consumer categories could become more attractive to us in the next few quarters.

去年，我們緊縮了消費貸款、抵押貸款、房屋淨值貸款和間接汽車貸款，並沒有以犧牲利差為代價來追逐數量。我們已經提高了價格，現在隨著降息的前景，這些消費類別可能在未來幾季對我們變得更具吸引力。

Similarly, we have been cautious of the last year with investment real estate and coupled with tepid demand, originations have dropped. We are starting to see more good looks in both C&I and commercial real estate and pipelines are building. As we've shared in the past, our loan growth in Ohio continues to outpace our Pennsylvania loan growth.

同樣，我們去年對投資房地產持謹慎態度，加上需求不溫不火，資金來源有所下降。我們開始看到工商業和商業房地產以及正在建造的管道更加美觀。正如我們過去所分享的，我們在俄亥俄州的貸款成長繼續超過賓州的貸款成長。

Looking ahead, we are confident in our loan origination capabilities and we believe we can get to well-structured and well-priced mid single digit loan growth by the fourth quarter and into 2025. Conversely, deposit gathering has been broad-based across most of our footprint. Deposit performance in our community. PA market continues to be exceptional. Community PA just happens to be our largest low-cost deposit region as well.

展望未來，我們對我們的貸款發放能力充滿信心，我們相信到第四季度直至 2025 年，我們能夠實現結構良好、價格合理的中個位數貸款增長。相反，存款收集在我們的大部分業務範圍內都很廣泛。我們社區的存款表現。PA 市場依然表現出色。社區 PA 恰好也是我們最大的低成本存款區域。

We've seen an increasing number of competitors, lower deposit rates in our market area, taking some pressure off pricing. We continue to offer competitive rates on time deposits because we want to bring our loan to deposit ratio down to create the liquidity to fund expected loan growth. But we're doing so at shorten terms to allow for repricing as rates fall.

我們看到競爭對手數量不斷增加，我們市場區域的存款利率較低，從而減輕了定價壓力。我們繼續提供有競爭力的定期存款利率，因為我們希望降低貸存比率，以創造流動性來為預期的貸款成長提供資金。但我們這樣做的期限較短，以便隨著利率下降而重新定價。

One other important dynamic worth noting is that we saw non-interest bearing balances increase slightly over last quarter. We're hopeful that means we are at or nearing the end of outflow of pandemic surge deposits, as Jim likes to call them. Non-interest bearing was 24.5% of total deposits this quarter, relatively unchanged from 24.9% last quarter.

另一個值得注意的重要動態是，我們看到無息餘額比上季略有增加。我們希望這意味著我們已經或接近結束大流行激增存款的外流，吉姆喜歡這樣稱呼它們。本季無息存款佔總存款的 24.5%，與上季的 24.9% 持平。

Non-interest income grew $1.2 million to $25.2 million in the second quarter on the strength of higher wealth management fees and interchange income. The increase in wealth management fees was due to strong fixed annuity sales in our wealth division as consumers customers sought out instruments to protect their investments from falling rates. The increase in interchange income was welcome, but we expect a roughly $3.5 million quarterly downdraft in interchange income due to the Durbin impact starting next quarter, which appears to be already have been baked into our estimates.

由於財富管理費和互換收入增加，第二季非利息收入增加了 120 萬美元，達到 2,520 萬美元。財富管理費用的增加是由於我們財富部門的固定年金銷售強勁，因為消費者客戶尋求工具來保護他們的投資免受利率下降的影響。交換收入的增加受到歡迎，但我們預計，由於從下個季度開始的杜賓影響，交換收入每季將減少約 350 萬美元，這似乎已經納入我們的估計。

Expenses continue to be well controlled at $65.8 million as our FTE remained down from year end, even as we staff appropriately to support crossing $10 billion. Our core efficiency ratio improved to 53.6%. Charge-offs $4.4 million were relatively flat quarter over quarter. Provision expense, however, was elevated as we set aside further specific reserves for non-performing loans.

儘管我們配備了適當的人員以支援超過 100 億美元，但由於我們的 FTE 較年底仍有所下降，因此費用繼續良好地控制在 6580 萬美元。我們的核心效率提高至53.6%。沖銷額為 440 萬美元，與上季相比相對持平。然而，由於我們進一步撥備不良貸款專案準備金，撥備費用有所上升。

Non-performing loans increased $14.7 million for the quarter, roughly 75% of the increase in NPLs was attributable to the former centric loans. Of course, centric is fully integrated into First Commonwealth now is our capital region. So we'll soon stop reporting such items separately. But for now, we would note that approximately half of all of our current NPLs are related to loans acquired in that acquisition, which was about 10% of our total assets at the time.

本季不良貸款增加 1,470 萬美元，不良貸款增加的約 75% 歸因於以前的中心貸款。當然，現在中心已經完全融入第一聯邦了，就是我們的首都地區。因此，我們很快將停止單獨報告此類項目。但就目前而言，我們注意到，我們目前所有不良貸款中約有一半與該收購中獲得的貸款有關，該貸款約占我們當時總資產的 10%。

We understood we would have credit pressure during due diligence, we set a fairly robust credit mark and priced the transaction accordingly. And given the achievement of announced cost saves. The transaction has been accretive to income despite the obvious credit workout headwinds.

我們知道在盡職調查期間我們會面臨信用壓力，因此我們設定了相當穩健的信用標記並相應地為交易定價。並考慮到已宣布的成本節省的成就。儘管存在明顯的信貸問題，但該交易仍增加了收入。

As Jim Reske will discuss in more detail, we also used the $5.6 million. But again, a $5.6 million from the sale of Visa B shares to absorb a loss on the sale of $75 million of lower-yielding securities, which were replaced with securities at current market rates. We also redeemed $50 million tranche of sub-debt in early June. Both of these will result in an annual picked up in pretax income and will be accretive to our net interest margin.

Jim Reske 將更詳細地討論，我們也使用了 560 萬美元。但同樣，出售 Visa B 股票的 560 萬美元用於吸收出售 7,500 萬美元低收益證券的損失，這些證券按當前市場利率被替換為證券。我們還在 6 月初贖回了 5,000 萬美元的次級債務。這兩項都將導致稅前收入每年回升，並將增加我們的淨利差。

In closing second quarter financials were solid, particularly pretax, pre-provision profitability and ongoing efficiency. And we continue to take steps to grow deposit liquidity to support broad based loan growth into the future.

截至第二季末，財務狀況穩健，尤其是稅前、撥備前獲利能力和持續效率。我們將繼續採取措施增加存款流動性，以支持未來廣泛的貸款成長。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它交給吉姆。

Thanks Mike. We had a few unusual transactions in the quarter that I'd like to walk you through before I turn to our core operating results. First, as previously disclosed and as Mike just mentioned on June 1, we redeemed $50 million of a $100 million in subordinated debt that we had outstanding. The debt was issued at the bank level in 2018, $50 million that we redeemed was a 10-year instrument. So the Tier 2 capital treatment was already in the phase-out period and was about to lose another 20% of its capital treatment. The other $50 million remains outstanding is a 15-year instrument and so remains eligible for 100% Tier 2 capital treatment for another four years at a fixed rate of 5.5%.

謝謝邁克。我們在本季發生了一些不尋常的交易，在討論我們的核心營運表現之前，我想先向您介紹這些交易。首先，正如先前披露的那樣，正如麥克在 6 月 1 日剛剛提到的，我們贖回了未償還的 1 億美元次級債務中的 5000 萬美元。該債務是2018年在銀行層級發行的，我們贖回的5,000萬美元是10年工具。因此，二級資本待遇已進入淘汰期，即將失去另外20%的資本待遇。另外 5,000 萬美元尚未償還，是一項 15 年期工具，因此仍有資格在接下來的四年內以 5.5% 的固定利率享受 100% 二級資本待遇。

The $50 million that we redeemed was floating at a rate of about 7.5%, and we called it using excess cash on hand. So calling it on June 1, gave us one month of benefit in our net interest margin for the quarter. This was the perfect quarter to redeem the sub debt since capital ratios grew strongly due to capital generation, combined with limited balance sheet growth.

我們贖回的5,000萬美元的浮動利率約為7.5%，我們稱之為使用手邊多餘現金。因此，在 6 月 1 日宣布這一日期，我們本季的淨利差將獲得一個月的收益。這是贖回次級債務的完美季度，因為資本比率由於資本產生而強勁增長，加上資產負債表增長有限。

On its own, the sub-debt redemption would have resulted in a 44 basis points reduction in the total risk-based capital ratio. So that ratio only went down by 8 basis points this quarter. And in fact, the tangible common equity ratio actually improved from 8.4% to 8.7% of the quarter, as did the CET one ratio from 11.4% to 11.7%. Sub-debt redemption contributed to the net improvement for one month in the second quarter. And going forward it should contribute about 2 basis points of NIM, in part because we used cash to pay it off and shrunk the balance sheet by $50 million. The redemption should also add about $1 million of net interest income on an annual basis.

就其本身而言，次級債務贖回將導致總風險資本比率降低 44 個基點。因此，本季該比率僅下降了 8 個基點。事實上，本季有形普通股比率實際上從 8.4% 提高到 8.7%，CET 比率也從 11.4% 提高到 11.7%。次級債贖回促成第二季一個月的淨改善。展望未來，它應該會貢獻大約 2 個基點的淨利差，部分原因是我們用現金來償還，並將資產負債表縮減了 5000 萬美元。此次贖回還將每年增加約100萬美元的淨利息收入。

Second, we had two offsetting non-core items in the quarter. We along with approximately 98% of banks holding Visa shares to Visa's offer to sell half our holdings in action, which we previously disclosed as well. As a result, we recognized approximately $5.6 million of gain on the stock in the second quarter. Offsetting that was a sale at the very end of the quarter of $75 million in underwater securities at a $5.5 million loss. As a result, these two non-core items offset each other in terms of their effect on second quarter earnings leaving GAAP and core EPS exactly the same for the quarter at 36%, but the net effect going forward of selling lower-yielding securities and in their place, repurchasing securities at current market rates should provide a 2 basis point tailwind to NIM along with approximately $2.25 million in improved net interest income per year.

其次，本季我們有兩個抵銷的非核心項目。我們與約 98% 持有 Visa 股票的銀行一道，根據 Visa 的要約，出售我們一半的股份，這一點我們之前也曾披露過。因此，我們在第二季確認了該股約 560 萬美元的收益。季度末出售了 7,500 萬美元的水下證券，虧損 550 萬美元，抵消了這一損失。因此，這兩項非核心項目對第二季收益的影響相互抵消，使得本季 GAAP 和核心 EPS 完全相同，均為 36%，但未來出售較低收益證券和取而代之的是，以當前市場利率回購證券將為淨利差提供2 個基點的推動力，並每年增加約225 萬美元的淨利息收入。

Now onto our core operating results, notwithstanding provision expense and the non-core items mentioned above our pre-tax pre-provision net revenue improved by $3.6 million over last quarter as a NIM expanded and fee income improved. After four quarters of in compression, the margin finally expanded this quarter by 5 basis points to 3.57%. Yields on earning assets improved by 12 basis points, while the cost of funds only went up by 7 basis points.

現在來看看我們的核心經營業績，儘管有撥備費用和上述非核心項目，但隨著淨息差擴大和費用收入改善，我們的稅前撥備前淨收入比上季度增加了 360 萬美元。經過四個季度的壓縮，本季利潤率最終擴大了5個基點至3.57%。生息資產收益率提高了12個基點，而資金成本僅上升了7個基點。

The cost of deposits went up by 10 basis points, but the impact of a total cost of funds was muted by the sub-debt redemption. The NIM also benefited by about 2 basis points from the recognition into net interest income of deferred interest on one loan that had previously been placed on nonaccrual status. Purchase accounting accretion contributed 8 basis points to them in this quarter, and we still expect that to fade out by about 1 basis point per quarter.

存款成本上升了10個基點，但次級債務贖回削弱了總資金成本的影響。由於將先前處於非應計狀態的一筆貸款的遞延利息確認為淨利息收入，淨利差也受益於約 2 個基點。購買會計成長在本季為其貢獻了 8 個基點，我們仍預期這項貢獻將每季淡出約 1 個基點。

The other big story with regard to the NIM this quarter was a fairly dramatic slowdown in the deposit, quote-un-quote rotation that we've seen in the past year. While there's no standard industry definition for that term, we use it to mean declines in balances in the traditionally low cost deposit categories of non-interest bearing now and savings accounts and growth in the balances of the higher cost categories of money market and time deposits.

本季度與淨利差有關的另一個重大事件是我們在過去一年中看到的存款、報價與報價輪換的顯著放緩。雖然該術語沒有標準的行業定義，但我們用它來表示傳統低成本存款類別（即無息存款和儲蓄帳戶）餘額的下降以及貨幣市場和定期存款等較高成本類別的餘額增長。

In the first quarter of 2024, for example, we experienced a decline of approximately $233 million in the less expensive categories and an increase of $283 million in the more expensive categories. That was the first quarter 2024. That's been the pattern for the last six quarters. Deposit rotation began in earnest in the first quarter of 2023 and has been running at a roughly $200 million to $250 million in each of the last three quarters.

例如，在 2024 年第一季度，較便宜的類別下降了約 2.33 億美元，而較昂貴的類別則增加了 2.83 億美元。那是 2024 年第一季。這是過去六個季度的模式。存款輪調從 2023 年第一季正式開始，過去三個季度每季的規模約為 2 億至 2.5 億美元。

In the second quarter just ended however, the less expensive categories rather than decreasing, actually increase by $27 million, while the more expensive categories only increased by $173 million. Perhaps more importantly, the deposit growth that we had in the first quarter came at an incremental cost of about 4.5% and in the second quarter, the incremental costs on new deposit funds fell to 3.4%. That combined with the rotation slowdown are noteworthy shifts and give us increased confidence in our NIM forecast going forward.

然而，在剛結束的第二季度，較便宜的類別非但沒有減少，反而增加了 2,700 萬美元，而較昂貴的類別僅增加了 1.73 億美元。或許更重要的是，第一季的存款成長帶來了約4.5%的增量成本，而第二季新增存款資金的增量成本降至3.4%。這與輪換放緩相結合是值得注意的變化，使我們對未來的淨利差預測更有信心。

As a result of these dynamics we would expect new stability or even slight improvement from current levels for the remainder of 2024 for give or take 5 basis points as usual, but with a bias towards the higher end of that range, even with two-three cut rates. Over the long haul, we are asset-sensitive, but in the near term, even with rate cuts, our loan portfolio yields will continue to drift upwards for a while before they start to fall.

由於這些動態，我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間將出現新的穩定性，甚至比當前水平略有改善，像往常一樣增加或減少 5 個基點，但偏向該範圍的高端，即使有 2-3 個基點降息。從長遠來看，我們對資產敏感，但從短期來看，即使降息，我們的貸款組合收益率在開始下降之前仍將繼續上升一段時間。

Most importantly, the notion that we've turned the corner to a falling rate environment should further reduce pressure on funding rates over the medium term, which has been the hardest part to predict. When we forecast using anywhere from zero to full rate cut for the remainder of 2024 and 2025, we did the same pattern for NIM and net interest income slow steady increases for the remainder of 2024. Flat through the first quarter of 2025 as lower rates start to have their effect and then a meaningful lift starting in the second quarter of next year as the macro swaps start to mature.

最重要的是，我們已經扭轉利率下降環境的觀點應該會進一步減輕中期融資利率的壓力，而這是最難預測的部分。當我們預測在 2024 年剩餘時間和 2025 年使用從零到全額降息的任何地方時，我們對淨利息收入採取了相同的模式，並且淨利息收入在 2024 年剩餘時間內緩慢穩定增長。隨著較低的利率開始發揮作用，到 2025 年第一季將持平，然後隨著宏觀互換開始成熟，明年第二季開始將出現有意義的提升。

In all of these scenarios, the quarter just ended appears to be the low point in terms of both NIM and net interest income at least through 2025, though, to be clear, our forecast have certainly been wrong in the past. Higher for longer is certainly better for us, but even in an aggregate aggressive rate cut scenario where there are four cuts this year and the Fed funds rate ends 2025 at about 3%. Our NIM and NII are both still higher than where they are now over the next six quarters, even assuming only modest loan growth.

在所有這些情況下，至少到 2025 年，剛結束的季度似乎都是淨利差和淨利息收入的最低點，不過需要明確的是，我們過去的預測肯定是錯誤的。長期走高對我們來說當然更好，但即使在整體激進降息的情況下，今年有四次降息，聯邦基金利率到 2025 年底約為 3%。即使假設貸款成長溫和，我們的淨利差和淨利息收入在未來六個季度仍高於目前水準。

In terms of capital management, tangible book value per share increased by $0.3 or 13% annualized from the previous quarter. To $9.56 due to about $24 million in retained earnings, combined with a $5.7 million reduction in AOCI, which ended the quarter at $113.4 million or 11.6% of tangible common equity.

在資本管理方面，每股有形帳面價值較上一季成長 0.3 美元，即年化 13%。由於留存收益約 2,400 萬美元，加上 AOCI 減少 570 萬美元，該季度末的 AOCI 為 1.134 億美元，佔有形普通股權益的 11.6%，至 9.56 美元。

We repurchased just under 23,000 shares this quarter at prices below $12.50 and have $17.1 million of authorization remaining in our current buyback program. Given the recent run-up in our stock price, the earn-back on buybacks becomes longer than we'd like but if we continue to experience modest balance sheet growth combined with consistent capital generation and reductions in AOCI, and especially now that the sub-debt redemption is behind us, we may repurchase shares anyway simply to avoid becoming underleveraged.

本季我們以低於 12.50 美元的價格回購了近 23,000 股股票，目前的回購計畫還剩 1,710 萬美元的授權。考慮到近期我們股價的上漲，回購的獲利時間變得比我們希望的要長，但如果我們繼續經歷適度的資產負債表成長，加上持續的資本產生和 AOCI 的減少，尤其是現在-債務贖回已經過去，我們無論如何都可以回購股票，以避免槓桿率不足。

And with that, we'll take any questions you may have.

接下來，我們將回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

（操作員說明）丹尼爾·塔馬約（Daniel Tamayo）和雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody, and I appreciate all the detail on the loans and the securities and the margin in general. I guess first, I'm normally one of the last things we address, just curious, you mentioned you would you would buy back stock if even if it's kind of rather expensive to do so I relative to current levels, but just curious how M&A fits into the picture if you guys are still interested in that and especially as your multiples have gone up and how dry powder perhaps influences the amount of buybacks you would be willing to do as well?

謝謝。大家下午好，我很欣賞有關貸款、證券和保證金的所有細節。我想首先，我通常是我們最後解決的問題之一，只是好奇，你提到你會回購股票，即使這樣做相對於目前的水平相當昂貴，但只是好奇併購如何如果你們仍然對此感興趣，特別是當你們的本益比上升時，乾粉可能會如何影響你們願意回購的數量，這符合這個情況？

So I'll answer that from a technical perspective because our priorities, unlike a lot of other banks or they haven't changed. And Mike may want to comment more on M&A appetite. But we prefer always like most banks to use capital generation to support organic growth. And then we have a small, we have a dividend, but we just want smooth and steady increase in the regular dividend. We have no appetite for special dividends.

因此，我將從技術角度回答這個問題，因為我們的優先事項與許多其他銀行不同，或者說它們沒有改變。麥克可能想對併購興趣發表更多評論。但我們總是喜歡像大多數銀行一樣利用資本產生來支持有機成長。然後我們有一小筆股息，但我們只希望定期股息平穩穩定地增加。我們對特別股利沒有興趣。

And then we would love to do accretive M&A. But if that's not presenting itself,, then we will buyback of stock to maintain the leverage that we want. I mean, if a tangible common ratio starts creeping up to 9% to 10%, the bank just gets to be underleveraged. And so even if you're buying back stock at one and three quarter times book, you have to do something to get capital really wanted to be. So that's the best quarter priority hasn't really changed that much. It's pretty typical. I don't know if Mike if you want to talk about just M&A appetite in general.

然後我們很樂意進行增值併購。但如果這沒有出現，那麼我們將回購股票以維持我們想要的槓桿。我的意思是，如果有形普通比率開始攀升至 9% 至 10%，銀行的槓桿率就會不足。因此，即使你以帳面價值的一又四分之三的價格回購股票，你也必須採取一些措施來獲得真正想要的資本。所以這是最好的季度優先事項並沒有真正改變那麼多。這是非常典型的。我不知道麥克是否想談談一般性的併購偏好。

Yes I mean, we're interested, obviously, as all of you know, and contiguous opportunities that are both strategic and financial. We also have to see a clear path to execute a deal with low risk. That's been another hurdle, if it doesn't look like that's their end. It's been good for our company. Everyone has expanded our geography products into new markets.

是的，我的意思是，眾所周知，我們顯然對策略和財務方面的連續機會感興趣。我們還必須找到一條執行低風險交易的清晰路徑。這是另一個障礙，如果看起來這不是他們的結局的話。這對我們公司來說是好事。每個人都將我們的地理產品擴展到新市場。

I think with our regional business model over the last five or six years, we're getting more effective at delivering in geographies that aren't in our backyard and cross selling other products and services and gathering deposits. So we're extremely interested. The other thing is it has to be at the right price some and we've we've finished second or third and we just won't go to the end three to do a deal where it really pushes out and ceases to make good financial sense and work for us in the next year to.

我認為，透過過去五、六年我們的區域業務模式，我們在不在我們後院的地區提供服務、交叉銷售其他產品和服務以及收集存款方面變得更加有效。所以我們非常感興趣。另一件事是，它必須以合適的價格進行，我們已經獲得了第二名或第三名，我們只是不會去到最後三名來達成一項交易，因為它確實會被淘汰，並且不再能創造良好的財務狀況。

I think you've heard that from me before, Daniel, so I apologize, but I think we've also now we're probably up to 70 deals that we've looked at, and we've done six. So our batting average is lower than most. So I hope that's helpful. I do think we're going to have more opportunities. It seems like there's chatter than there has been for several years and hopefully they're right.

我想你之前已經從我這裡聽說過，丹尼爾，所以我很抱歉，但我想我們現在也可能已經考慮過 70 筆交易，並且已經完成了 6 筆。所以我們的擊球率低於大多數人。所以我希望這有幫助。我確實認為我們將會有更多的機會。似乎幾年來一直有這樣的爭論，希望他們是對的。

Sure. No, that is helpful. I appreciate all that color, Mike. Yes, I guess I guess.

當然。不，這很有幫助。我很欣賞這種顏色，麥克。是的，我想我想。

The only other thing I would add is we've done smaller deals. I mean we tend to Groove in that smaller category where we think there's and less risk and we tend to be able to make it happen seamlessly.

我唯一要補充的是，我們已經完成了較小的交易。我的意思是，我們傾向於在較小的類別中發展，我們認為風險較小，而且我們往往能夠使其無縫發生。

Yeah. No, understood. Understood. And then maybe just a follow-up kind of unrelated on the organic side on loan growth, you talked about building back up to the mid-single digit growth by the fourth quarter and C&I and CRE pipelines improving. Maybe you could just talk about your appetite for continued equipment finance build-out as that happens or how you think about that and then just curious how you're how you're balancing the the risk-reward in equipment finance.

是的。不，明白了。明白了。然後，也許只是與貸款成長的有機方面無關的後續行動，您談到到第四季度恢復到中個位數成長，以及 C&I 和 CRE 管道的改善。也許您可以談談您對持續擴大設備融資的興趣，或者您對此有何看法，然後只是好奇您如何平衡設備融資的風險回報。

And I think you talked about growth in SBA in the quarter as well as we started to see some some other banks talk about some some credit concerns in those areas.

我認為您談到了本季度 SBA 的成長，我們也開始看到其他一些銀行談到了這些領域的一些信貸問題。

Yes. I think with equipment finance, we've -- our volume has been lighter this year than we thought it would be I think we've grown just about $45 million. I think our so we had budgeted more. We saw that on the growth rate has slowed because there's less demand for CapEx for truck and construction equipment. We've had lower approval rates for submitted applications just because on the margin, we're not stretching our risk appetite. but we don't really apologize for that and looking at the P&L that Jim does on equipment finance and we're profitable and it's not perhaps where we had hoped to be after two years.

是的。我認為在設備融資方面，我們今年的規模比我們想像的要少，我認為我們只成長了約 4500 萬美元。我認為我們的預算更多。我們看到成長率已經放緩，因為卡車和建築設備的資本支出需求減少。我們提交的申請的批准率較低，只是因為我們沒有擴大風險偏好。但我們並沒有真正為此道歉，看看吉姆在設備融資方面所做的損益表，我們是盈利的，但這可能不是我們希望在兩年後達到的水平。

But it's a nice business for us with good returns. And we've been able to keep our annualized charge-offs at a budgeted amount, which we kind of signed up for about 55 basis points to 65 basis points. So we're actually pleased with the business. It's well run. It's staying within our risk appetite and there will be a time where that will grow a little quicker but probably not right now. And just like with all of our consumer categories that Jane and the team have run so well, um, we're just not going to compromise volume for risk and price.

但這對我們來說是一門不錯的生意，回報豐厚。我們已經能夠將年度沖銷保持在預算金額，我們簽署了大約 55 個基點到 65 個基點。所以我們實際上對這項業務感到滿意。運行得很好。它保持在我們的風險偏好範圍內，有一天它會成長得更快一些，但可能不是現在。就像簡和團隊在我們所有的消費類別中運作得如此順利一樣，嗯，我們不會為了風險和價格而犧牲數量。

We just are not we haven't pushed that envelope. We didn't do it on the consumer side, and we haven't done it on the commercial side. So I hope that's helpful with the equipment finance and the other businesses, I just like the way we're teed up on the consumer side. I think if rates drop a bit, those businesses could become more attractive to us pretty quickly within a quarter or two, particularly indirect auto. And we've made a lot of pricing discipline, even as we've moved our average costs up. You know from this or not costs, but yields from the 5 %to almost 7% over 7%. So the team has done a nice job there and we can drop a half a point and get a lot more volume. We just haven't done that. And again, that's a our good people under Jane's leadership.

我們只是還沒有挑戰極限。我們在消費端沒有做，在商業端也沒有做。因此，我希望這對設備融資和其​​他業務有所幫助，我只是喜歡我們在消費者方面的工作方式。我認為，如果利率稍微下降，這些業務可能會在一兩個季度內很快就對我們變得更具吸引力，特別是間接汽車業務。即使我們提高了平均成本，我們也制定了許多定價規則。從這裡你就知道成本與否，但收益率從5%到幾乎7%超過7%。所以團隊在這方面做得很好，我們可以下降半分並獲得更多的銷售。我們只是還沒有這樣做。再說一遍，這是簡領導下的我們優秀的人民。

And on the commercial side, I just think you know, just after First Republic and everything we just kind of hit the pause and on commercial real estate, and we're seeing good deals come back and opportunities with a great stable of developers in the Midwest and Pennsylvania in our C&I under Mike McKeon's leadership, I just feel really good about pipelines and talent, and we're already pretty good there.

在商業方面，我想你知道，就在第一共和國之後，我們在商業房地產方面的一切都暫停了，我們看到良好的交易回來了，並且有大量穩定的開發商提供了機會。賓州的C&I 在Mike McKeon 的領導下，我對管道和人才感覺非常好，我們在那裡已經做得很好了。

We're probably about 60, 65 percentile. But I just think that's where we've got to get a lot better in terms of the concentration in our portfolio and all the value that gets bought through family-owned business depository, all that good stuff and cross selling wealth management and pushing that through the regional model. I just think that's how we go from being a pretty good company. It may be a much, much better company over the next 5 or 10 years.

我們大概是 60、65 個百分點。但我只是認為，在投資組合的集中度以及透過家族企業存管購買的所有價值、所有這些好東西和交叉銷售財富管理並推動這一目標方面，我們必須做得更好。我只是認為這就是我們如何成為一家相當優秀的公司的。未來 5 年或 10 年，它可能會成為一家更好的公司。

Terrific. Very helpful, Mike. Thanks for all the color.

了不起。非常有幫助，麥克。感謝所有的顏色。

Carl Shepherd, RBC.

卡爾謝潑德，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hey, good afternoon, everybody. Mike, I wanted to follow-up on loan growth real quick. It sounds like you're confident in getting back to kind of mid-single digit by the end of the year. Is that a year-over-year pace or do you want us to think about that more like an annualized kind of pace for 4Q.

嘿，大家下午好。麥克，我想快速跟進貸款成長情況。聽起來你有信心在今年年底前恢復到中個位數。這是同比增速還是您希望我們將其視為第四季度的年化增速？

It's just annualized stepped up our low end.

它只是年化後提高了我們的低端水平。

I wanted to ask a follow-up on loan growth. A little bit more to you mentioned the impact of consumer loan growth accelerating here loaded your rate cut, is that expectation from better consumer demand or is it your ability to price your funding position?

我想問貸款增長的後續情況。您也提到了消費貸款成長加速對您降息的影響，這是來自更好的消費者需求的預期還是您為融資部位定價的能力？

I think we could maybe almost go without consumer, but I'm counting on it. And then maybe that gets us to the higher end of the range is the way we're thinking about it. We just have really good people leading those consumer businesses in mortgage or underwriting. And it's just been kind of on hot idle. And I think it won't be hard there to kind of strike the iron and just do a solid job. And so that the better or worse, that's how we're thinking about it.

我認為我們可能幾乎可以沒有消費者，但我指望著它。也許這會讓我們達到更高的境界，這就是我們思考的方式。我們只是擁有真正優秀的人才來領導這些消費企業的抵押貸款或核保業務。而且它一直處於熱閒置狀態。我認為，打鐵並紮實做好工作並不難。因此，無論好壞，這都是我們思考的方式。

Okay, and then switching over to deposits, we talked a lot about deposit costs and I know aligning loan growth and deposit growth has been a priority for you guys. Can you just talk about your confidence in growing deposits?

好的，然後轉向存款，我們討論了很多關於存款成本的問題，我知道調整貸款成長和存款成長一直是你們的首要任務。能談談您對存款成長的信心嗎？

Hey Jane, why don't you pick up on that?

嘿，簡，你為什麼不接受這個？

Sure. Sure. Glad to. So we're always confident that we can grow deposits. It's a little trickier to grow the low-cost deposits, and we're starting to turn that corner, we are not raising CD rates. We've started to tamp those back a little bit. And one of the reasons that we are as focused as we are on the loan categories that we are is we are and really demanding the full relationship on our credit data and our in market on extensions of credit. So I think we'll do just fine, but low cost deposits are always going to be a knife fight for us and for everybody else.

當然。當然。樂於。因此，我們始終對增加存款充滿信心。增加低成本存款有點棘手，我們正在開始扭轉這個局面，我們不會提高存款利率。我們已經開始將它們壓實一些。我們如此關注貸款類別的原因之一是，我們確實要求我們的信用資料與市場上的信貸延期建立充分的關係。所以我認為我們會做得很好，但低成本存款對我們和其他人來說總是一場激烈的戰鬥。

If we look, I would just add to Jim's comments. I mean, we look at all of this regionally, just not by product category, and I'm just looking at growth year over year. And I mean, it's pretty good in almost every market and in our lowest market is 2% and our highest is over 10%. I mean, it's just that the area of emphasis that's come from Jane for years.

如果我們看的話，我會補充吉姆的評論。我的意思是，我們從區域角度來看待所有這些，而不是按產品類別，我只是專注於逐年成長。我的意思是，幾乎在每個市場都相當不錯，我們最低的市場是 2%，最高的市場超過 10%。我的意思是，這只是簡多年來一直強調的領域。

All right. Well, good quarter. And thanks for all the help you.

好的。嗯，季度表現不錯。並感謝您提供的所有幫助。

Manuel Navas, DA Davidson.

曼努埃爾·納瓦斯，DA 戴維森。

Hey, with the lower kind of marginal deposit costs, are we getting it's still above where you're pricing the book right now, but how close you think we're getting to like peak deposit costs? And how quickly could they shift in rate cuts?

嘿，邊際存款成本較低，我們是否仍然高於您現在為這本書定價的價格，但您認為我們離峰值存款成本有多近？他們能以多快的速度轉向降息？

That's a great question, and I'll turn it over to Jim.

這是一個很好的問題，我會把它交給吉姆。

Yes, really insightful. You know, I've used for the loans-to-deposits made in law; I have used this motor boat analogy. I was hoping it would catch on like wildfire in the industry. Doesn't seem to have done, so to speak. But quickly, you cut the throttle and you keep looking forward and we see that loan. All the projections on a loan book of the same thing on the deposit book. So I wouldn't call the peak just yet. I think that, I was very encouraged to see the rate of increase on the deposit side. But the rate of increase on the deposit side, is not going to reverse. This is this is not a high point. I don't think it will still go separate.

是的，確實很有洞察力。你知道，我用的是法律規定的貸款轉存款；我用了摩托艇來比喻。我希望它能像野火一樣在業界流行起來。可以這麼說，似乎沒有做到。但很快，你就放慢了腳步，繼續向前看，我們就看到了這筆貸款。貸款簿上的所有預測與存款簿上的預測相同。所以我現在還不會稱之為峰值。我認為，看到存款方面的成長率，我感到非常鼓舞。但存款方面的成長率不會逆轉。這還不是一個高點。我認為它仍然不會分開。

And what are -- I appreciate that. What are the new loans coming on at? Just the yield improvement was nice, but I know some of it was with an interest rate recovery, just kind of what's what are new loans coming on at? And then how is that expected to proceed going forward?

是什麼——我很欣賞這一點。新貸款的發放時間是怎麼樣的？只是收益率的改善很好，但我知道其中一些是由於利率恢復，新貸款的金額是多少？那麼接下來預計將如何進行呢？

Yes. I'll give you the total and a little bit of color. The new loans coming on a little over 8% in the aggregate. 8.11% actually for the quarter was new originations. So just for originations, for us, there's one off as well. So they net, but I mean, just for originations over $850 million of new loan originations, about $630 million of that was variable. That commodities in the quarter. So customers are choosing the 95% of the originations are variable.

是的。我會給你完整的和一點點的顏色。新貸款總額略高於 8%。該季度實際 8.11% 是新產品。因此，對於起源而言，對我們來說，也有一個。所以他們淨額，但我的意思是，僅對於超過 8.5 億美元的新貸款發放，其中約 6.3 億美元是可變的。該季度的商品。因此，客戶選擇的 95% 的來源都是可變的。

Customers are choosing, they're choosing to go variable. As much as we would like them to stay fixed and go wrong in a long way environment, they make choices too. And they want a variable rate loans, to three quarters with the production was very, let's say, in the quarter for the fixed stock was $775 million. So the variable this quarter, the new rate on that I just gave you the quarter was above almost exactly the same rate as the rate at which enable was running off. So nice new loans, that same replacement yields as the runoff and variable.

客戶在選擇，他們在選擇變化。儘管我們希望它們在長期環境中保持固定並避免出錯，但它們也會做出選擇。他們想要可變利率貸款，到三個季度的產量就非常大，比方說，該季度的固定庫存為 7.75 億美元。因此，本季的變量，即我剛剛向您提供的該季度的新利率，幾乎與啟用運行時的利率完全相同。如此好的新貸款，與徑流和變數相同的替代收益率。

But the new fix coming out of $775 million was 250 basis points more than what may not saturate as just part of that story. That gives us confidence that even if rates are cut, you got to either go to a number of cuts for the new fixed comes on at lower rates and the fixed that runs off it. That's the motorboat will cause an upward drift in the fixed rate portfolio either with rate cut.

但 7.75 億美元的新修復金額比該故事的一部分可能未飽和的金額高出 250 個基點。這讓我們有信心，即使利率被下調，你也必須要么對新的固定利率進行多次削減，要么以較低的利率推出固定利率。也就是說，無論降息，摩托艇都會導致固定利率投資組合向上漂移。

Absolutely. I appreciate that commentary. what rate scenario are you using in the in the swap discussion of 10 basis points? Is that like a September orDecember a couple the first half of next year? like how many cuts roughly ?

絕對地。我很欣賞這個評論。在 10 個基點的掉期討論中您使用什麼利率情境？這就像明年上半年的九月或十二月嗎？大概有多少次切割？

I'm glad you mentioned it. So on the PowerPoint supplements that we put on the Investor Relations portion of our website. On page 14, we give two scenarios. One is flat rates unchanged. Fed funds at 550 just unchanged. That's in the if you go to that page later, it's in the bottom right corner, but that shows 11 basis points of cumulative net benefit by the end of 2025 and have an unchanged rate scenario.

我很高興你提到它。因此，我們在網站的投資者關係部分新增了 PowerPoint 補充資料。在第 14 頁，我們給了兩種情況。一是統一費率不變。聯邦基金利率維持在550不變。如果您稍後訪問該頁面，它位於右下角，但顯示到 2025 年底累計淨收益將增加 11 個基點，且利率情境保持不變。

Then we have something we call baseline. That's our baseline scenario. That's 10 basis points of improvement, and that's our standard forecast where we have a we put a 40% weight on Moody's baseline scenario than the 30%. We had an upside scenario and a 30% weight on the downside. We've been doing that consistently for our forecasting and also for our decent model for ever since we got that's useful. But that's a scenario that is still increased by 10 basis points cumulatively to NIM.

然後我們就有了所謂的基線。這是我們的基準情境。這是 10 個基點的改進，這是我們的標準預測，我們對穆迪基準情境的權重為 40%，而不是 30%。我們有一個上行情景，30% 的權重是下行情景。自從我們發現它有用以來，我們一直在為我們的預測和我們的體面模型這樣做。但在這種情況下，NIM 仍會累積增加 10 個基點。

Okay. I appreciate that commentary. I just wanted to understand if I didn't add into my forecast and and such. But I appreciate I'll step back into the queue.

好的。我很欣賞這個評論。我只是想了解我是否沒有添加到我的預測等內容中。但我很高興我會回到隊列中。

Kelly Motta, KBW.

凱利·莫塔，KBW。

Hi, thanks so much for the question. Most of mine have been asked and answered at this point. I was hoping to get a bit more color on the migration related to Centric portfolio. And I know you mentioned that when you did that acquisition, you expected some hiccups there and had put on a appropriate credit mark accordingly.

你好，非常感謝你的提問。此刻，我的大部分問題都已被問到並得到解答。我希望對與 Centric 產品組合相關的遷移有更多了解。我知道你提到過，當你進行那次收購時，你預計會出現一些問題，並相應地給予了適當的信用標記。

Just just wondering from a high level, if you could provide portfolio is performing relative your expectations at the time you enter that deal and if there is there any any other sort of migration down the line that you would expect to come from that or and what we saw this quarter likely?

只是從高層次想知道，您是否可以提供投資組合，其表現相對於您在進入交易時的預期，以及是否存在任何其他類型的遷移，您希望從中獲得什麼或什麼我們看到這個季度有可能嗎？

Yes, this is Mike, and thanks for the question. I'll turn it over. It's Brian Karrip, our Chief Credit Officer in a minute. But we put like 323 or 327 mark, which was in the $30 million. And I think we're about $8 million short of that at this point. So we still have a little bit of room that was pretty heavy-handed. We also adjusted the price. And as we think about that right now, it's about half of the NPLs and it's about half of most of our categories that are challenged.

是的，我是麥克，謝謝你的提問。我會把它翻過來。這是布萊恩·卡里普 (Brian Karrip)，稍後將擔任我們的首席信貸官。但我們設置了 323 或 327 標記，即 3000 萬美元。我認為目前我們還差大約 800 萬美元。所以我們還有一點空間，但空間很大。我們也調整了價格。正如我們現在所考慮的那樣，大約有一半的不良貸款以及大約一半的我們大多數類別都受到了挑戰。

And Brian and the team, we do a pretty extensive line sheet review and we just finished at probably 30 plus hours in 3,000 notes here in the last month. And we -- so that's intensive. It's every credit over a million. And that group in the capital region performed very well. We just didn't see that many directed downgrades.

Brian 和他的團隊，我們做了相當廣泛的線路表審查，上個月我們剛完成了大約 30 多個小時的 3,000 條筆記。我們——所以這是密集的。每一個學分超過一百萬都是這樣。而首都地區的那支隊伍表現得非常好。我們只是沒有看到那麼多定向降級。

And with Brian, I'll let you pick it up from there.

和布萊恩一起，我會讓你從那裡拿起它。

Thank you for your question, Kelly. So 51% of our special mention and 55% of our substandard credits are related to loans that were originated from centric bank. But we believe that we've largely identified our problems at the acquired bank, and we're comfortable that we'll return to our historically strong credit metrics over the next several quarters. So we're committed to that and we're working towards it.

謝謝你的提問，凱利。因此，我們 51% 的特別關注信貸和 55% 的次級信貸與來自中心銀行的貸款有關。但我們相信，我們已經在很大程度上發現了被收購銀行的問題，我們很高興我們將在未來幾季恢復到歷史上強勁的信貸指標。因此，我們致力於此並正在努力實現這一目標。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then next question for me is on expenses, you and how does that had a pretty strong quarter and loan growth is expected to pick up in that latter part of the year.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。對我來說，下一個問題是關於支出，你的季度表現如何，貸款成長預計將在今年下半年回升。

Just wondering as you look ahead, is the investments you're making internally into the franchise as well as your outlook for on loan to pick up, wondering how we should be thinking about and the trajectory of expenses over latter part of this year?

只是想知道，當您展望未來時，您對特許經營權的內部投資以及您對貸款回升的前景是否如此，想知道我們應該如何考慮以及今年下半年的支出軌跡？

Yes, Hey Kelly, it's Jim here. Yes when I looked at the consensus estimates, I didn't look at yours in particular, but as consensus estimates for NII going forward, for the third and fourth quarter this year. That looks about right, but didn't really feel a need to give correctly disclosure. But the consensus has us at around $67million to $68 million in the per quarter in the second half. And that's that seems about right. We've got obviously could go on and on about our expense culture and how much to say how important it is to us. And we actually we're doing quite well there, but from the consensus. So it looks like it's dialed in. So we're okay with them.

是的，嘿凱利，我是吉姆。是的，當我查看共識估計時，我並沒有特別關注你們的共識估計，而是對今年第三和第四季度 NII 的共識估計。這看起來是正確的，但實際上並沒有必要進行正確的披露。但普遍認為下半年每季的營收約為 6,700 萬至 6,800 萬美元。這似乎是正確的。顯然，我們可以繼續談論我們的消費文化，以及它對我們的重要性。事實上，我們在這方面做得很好，但從共識來看。所以看起來像是已經撥了。所以我們和他們相處得很好。

Got it. Thank you. I'll step back.

知道了。謝謝。我會退後一步。

Matthew Breese with Stephens.

馬修·布里斯和史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good afternoon, everybody from Atlanta. Jim, I was really hoping to do some great detail on the NIM. And then I wanted to parse it out just a little bit more. Maybe just to set the stage. It sounds like your floating rate book is yielding 8.25. And the fixed rate book, if I have it right, is in kind of the low 5, 5.25 is the right?

嘿，來自亞特蘭大的大家下午好。吉姆，我真的希望能對 NIM 做一些詳細的介紹。然後我想進一步解析它。也許只是為了搭建舞台。聽起來你的浮動利率帳簿的收益率是 8.25。而固定利率的書，沒記錯的話，是低5的那種，5.25是對的嗎？

Well, that the numbers I was giving a minute ago were just for new originations in the quarter, not the whole book.

好吧，我一分鐘前給出的數字只是本季的新創作品，而不是整本書。

Right. But you said 775 is for the new fixed rate stuff, which is 250 bps better than what's running off. So I assume the runoff was around 5.25?

正確的。但你說 775 是用於新的固定速率的東西，這比正在運行的要好 250 bps。所以我假設徑流約為 5.25？

Yeah, yeah, the runoff businesses. And so that's the now and the gradual portfolio yield is in between there somewhere.

是的，是的，徑流業務。這就是現在和漸進的投資組合收益率之間的某個地方。

Okay. And what is the duration on that book? How much kind of rolls every quarter on the ratio of stuff?

好的。那本書的時間是多少？每季捲多少種東西的比例？

Yes, the fixed rate stuff, the duration, I don't have the actual duration on the fixed rate stuff. I think I have to get that for you. Duration of the entire loan portfolio, is it 2.85 years, but that includes both fixed and variable. And I'll give you a little color that I do have some. So you will probably recall our investor deck we break out in the pie charts a different slice of the portfolio, trying to say that half is fixed and half is variable. And we say that from a risk management perspective, to give people an understanding that we tried to build a diversified loan portfolio.

是的，固定利率的東西，持續時間，我沒有固定利率東西的實際持續時間。我想我必須給你拿那個。整個貸款組合的期限為 2.85 年，包括固定期限和可變期限。我會給你一點我有的顏色。因此，您可能會記得我們的投資者套牌，我們在餅圖中分解了投資組合的不同部分，試圖說一半是固定的，一半是可變的。我們從風險管理的角度這麼說，是為了讓人們了解我們試圖建立多元化的貸款組合。

But in the variable portion about the part that really reprices right away with rate cuts is only about 33% of the total portfolio. And about 5%, 5 points of that 33 are are have been fixed with macro swaps that's running at about 27%. That portfolio right now has a weighted average rate of 7.92%. So that's the piece that will reprice downward.

但在可變部分中，真正隨著降息立即重新定價的部分僅佔總投資組合的 33% 左右。大約 5%，這 33 個點中的 5 個點已經透過宏觀交換得到修復，運行速度約為 27%。該投資組合目前的加權平均利率為 7.92%。因此，這就是將重新定價的產品。

So it's not a 33% of portfolio, but really after the macro swaps -- until the macro swaps paid off or roll off, it's 27% of the total portfolio. Then there's another slice that's get year half of a portfolio with variable, about 18% of the portfolio. And those are variable, but they just don't reprice immediately, they reprice over time.

所以它不是投資組合的 33%，而是在宏觀掉期之後——直到宏觀掉期得到回報或滾存，它佔總投資組合的 27%。然後還有另一部分，即投資組合的半年，其中包含變量，約佔投資組合的 18%。這些是可變的，但它們不會立即重新定價，而是隨著時間的推移重新定價。

These are when a commercial loan is originated as a reprice state that's five years, hence or a five one arm and a mortgage or something like that portfolio that's twice as a weight trade of about 5.65%. The weighted average term on those is about four years.

這些是商業貸款以五年重新定價狀態發起的情況，因此或五臂和抵押貸款或類似的投資組合，其權重交易的兩倍約為 5.65%。這些的加權平均期限約為四年。

The weighted average time to the next repricing date for those is only about 20 months. But this goes into our forecasting because that little slice, we say half of the portfolio has been fixed, it gives the impression that fully half the portfolio price downward at a rate cut. That's not true. The little price of 18% is yielding 5.65%. When those loans come to repricing date, they could be loans that originated three are still in a low rate environment.

到下一個重新定價日期的加權平均時間僅為 20 個月左右。但這進入了我們的預測，因為我們說投資組合的一半已經固定，這給人的印像是投資組合的價格在降息時下降了一半。那不是真的。18% 的小價格收益率為 5.65%。當這些貸款到重新定價日期時，它們可能是源自三筆仍處於低利率環境的貸款。

And our repricing, even though rates are lower than they are today, they can still be repricing upward, especially that overall portfolio is only 5.65%. So I know that doesn't answer your question directly or the duration of to get back to you on that, but hopefully that gives you a little color on the fixed and variable portfolios.

而我們的重新定價，即使利率比現在低，它們仍然可以向上重新定價，特別是整體投資組合只有 5.65%。所以我知道這並不能直接回答你的問題，也不能回答你的問題，但希望這能讓你對固定和可變投資組合有一些了解。

No, it helps. And I think it helps build the point you made at the beginning, which is that it takes a lot of cuts for the margin start to feel some pain because the back book still has so much room to reprice higher.

不，它有幫助。我認為這有助於建立您在開始時提出的觀點，即需要大量削減利潤才能開始感到一些痛苦，因為後面的書仍然有很大的空間可以重新定價更高。

That's right.

這是正確的。

And so I was curious when you made your remark that in the baseline improvements that attendance is up to the end of this year, is that through the end of 2025.

因此，當您說在基準改進中，到今年年底的出席率是到 2025 年底時，我很好奇。

Because it depends on the rate scenario. So if we have a risk there, that seems kind of moderate rate scenario that is just run using Moody's baseline forecast. A Moody's baseline right now has three cuts by end of this year, even though the overall interest going to be two and the Moody's baseline has seven cuts in total by the end of 2025. So that gives the and this Moody's baseline gets the Fed funds rate about 3.75 by the end of 2025.

因為這取決於費率場景。因此，如果我們有風險，那麼這似乎是一種中等利率情景，只是使用穆迪的基線預測來運行。穆迪目前的基準在今年年底前已削減了 3 次，儘管到 2025 年底整體利息將減少兩次，而穆迪的基準將總共削減 7 次。因此，到 2025 年底，穆迪的基準利率將達到 3.75 左右。

And that rate scenario, the NIM goes up, starting again with the caveat the forecast can be wrong. They often are, but goes up at the end of this year and then goes up another. I don't how to say this, but it really goes up strongly next year because you had accumulative effect as we burn off of the macro swaps. High end of the range I gave you in my prepared remarks by the end of this year.

在這種情況下，淨利差上升，再次警告預測可能是錯誤的。它們經常是這樣，但在今年年底會上升，然後又會上升。我不知道該怎麼說，但明年它確實會強勁上漲，因為當我們消耗掉宏觀互換時，你會產生累積效應。我在今年年底準備好的演講中給了你們這個範圍的高端。

And then in this forecast, looks like another 10 basis points next year with Microsoft coming off an accumulative effect. So it's all by every forecast is wrong the day It is printed, right ? The future reason to unravel and how it rolls out differently than you think, but that's what the Moody's baseline forecast would show.

在這個預測中，隨著微軟擺脫累積效應，明年似乎還會再上漲 10 個基點。所以這一切都是在印刷當天的預測都是錯的，對吧？未來的原因以及它的展開方式與您想像的不同，但這就是穆迪基準預測所顯示的內容。

Okay. So a NIM ending 2025 and kind of 3.75 to 3.80range?

好的。那麼 2025 年結束的淨利差（NIM）範圍是 3.75 到 3.80 嗎？

That's right. Under the forecast.

這是正確的。預測之下。

And to what extent does securities help? Like that was my other question is how much in securities repricing? what isn't rolling off at ? And where are you putting new securities on?

證券在多大程度上有幫助？就像我的另一個問題是證券重新定價有多少？什麼沒有滾動？您將把新證券放在哪裡？

Once they are rolling off for the low twos, the ones that are coming off are in mid- 5. So all securities we purchased, a very plain vanilla. We're trying to buy more Ginnie Mae's because we have a 0% risk weight. Yields we're seeing now in the mid- 5's . We actually bought from this quarter, I think $160 million- $170 million, including -- that includes a $75 million of the loss rate. We did some other coming out of the 5.5% rate. We think that securities portfolio in light of kind of low, but our forecast and we have an aggressive build in the securities portfolio. We just want to --.

一旦他們跌入低位，那些跌入中場的就會是5位。所以我們購買的所有證券都是非常普通的。我們正在嘗試購買更多吉利美 (Ginnie Mae) 債券，因為我們的風險權重為 0%。我們現在看到的收益率在 5 左右。我們實際上從這個季度開始購買了 1.6 億至 1.7 億美元，其中包括 7,500 萬美元的損失率。我們也根據 5.5% 的利率做了一些其他的事情。我們認為證券投資組合的水平較低，但我們的預測和我們在證券投資組合中的積極建設。我們只想--.

Sorry, if I missed it, what was the duration securities book?

抱歉，如果我錯過了，證券帳簿的久期是多少？

Duration total is, I think 4.7. It went down from 4.8 a last quarter by one tick.

我認為總持續時間是 4.7。它比上季度的 4.8 下降了一個基點。

Just because -- oh, no I got that backwards. It was 4.7, we are up to 4.8 by one tick, because the new securities you just bought that spends $75 million were slightly longer durations. But everything we buy is usually in the four to five-year duration.

只是因為——哦，不，我搞反了。當時是 4.7，我們現在已經上升到 4.8，因為您剛購買的花費 7500 萬美元的新證券的久期稍長一些。但我們購買的所有東西通常都是四到五年的。

Okay. I am sorry to be long-winded, but I have the same set of questions for your CD book. What's rolling off and what are your CDs rolling on at ? Are you starting to see a lower roll-on versus roll off will offer and at what point do you see that?

好的。很抱歉囉嗦了，但我對你的 CD 書也有同樣的問題。正在播放什麼以及您的 CD 的播放速度是多少？您是否開始看到滾裝與滾滾相比會提供更低的價格？

Yes, yes. I am sorry if i am answering questions I was curious, but i am sure If I missed.

是的，是的。如果我回答我很好奇的問題，我很抱歉，但我確信如果我錯過了。

No, no, I had asked about the securities . Now I am asking about CD.

不不，我問過證券的事。現在我問的是CD。

Okay. The CDs -- so we're still offering competitive market rate specials in fact, we've -- in the first quarter, we were pricing CDs really like in the 90 percentile competitively, very competitive with the peer banks. We dialed that back a little bit in the second quarter because we have such a successful fourth quarter and low in growth. But we're staying very competitive here right now what we've done to shorten the term a little bit so that have seven months of doing five months.

好的。CD - 所以我們仍然提供有競爭力的市場利率特價，事實上，我們 - 在第一季度，我們對 CD 的定價確實在 90% 的競爭中，與同行銀行非常有競爭力。我們在第二季度稍微回落了這一點，因為我們在第四季度非常成功，但成長緩慢。但我們現在在這裡保持非常有競爭力，我們已經做了一點點縮短期限，以便用七個月的時間做五個月的事情。

So we're trying to do is give us a chance to reap ourselves a chance to reprice those CDs if rates fall. So I think the rate, especially we have right now is 5.2% for five months, and it's been it's been quite successful.

因此，我們正在努力做的是，如果利率下降，我們就有機會重新定價這些 CD。所以我認為這個利率，尤其是我們現在的利率，已經連續五個月達到 5.2%，而且已經相當成功了。

The other part of this dynamic that you should understand is that a lot of the stuff we've been doing since rates have come off of them 7, 11 months special short-term CD specials, but they're maturing now. And so we're seeing those mature. We're seeing about an 80% retention rate on the CDs that come due. And some of those will be rates that are lower than the nominal rate and a lot of that a lot of times a customer come and say, yeah, I want that rack rate.

您應該了解的這一動態的另一部分是，自從 7、11 個月特別短期 CD 特價的利率下降以來，我們一直在做很多事情，但它們現在正在成熟。所以我們看到這些已經成熟。我們看到到期 CD 的保留率約為 80%。其中一些費率會低於名義費率，而且很多時候客戶會過來說，是的，我想要那個門市價。

We are not migrate people down a rack rate of five basis points. But I mean, if it's a rack rate that's lower than our current rate, most will come in and say what the current rate, but it's a, but the retention has been really strong in the CD book. So that's a little bit of color that helps you very helpful. Just last one on fee income, particularly mortgage banking was a bit stronger this quarter.

我們不會將人員遷移率降低五個基點。但我的意思是，如果它的機架費率低於我們當前的費率，大多數人都會進來並說當前的費率是多少，但這是一個，但CD 書中的保留率確實很高。所以一點點顏色對你很有幫助。最後一個是關於費用收入的，尤其是抵押貸款銀行業務，本季稍強。

Very helpful. Just last one on fee income, particularly mortgage banking was a bit stronger this quarter. Maybe just some comments on overall levels of fee income and mortgage in particular?

非常有幫助。最後一個是關於費用收入的，尤其是抵押貸款銀行業務，本季稍強。也許只是對費用收入和抵押貸款總體水平的一些評論？

Jane, any thoughts on mortgage? Jane has done a good job. We brought out, but we're also making some more money this year.

簡，關於抵押貸款有什麼想法嗎？簡做得很好。我們推出了，但今年我們也賺了更多錢。

And we -- i think the opportunity to talk about it, too sell virtually all of the reduction. So we are preserving the balance sheet a bit and the book probably settling between 80% to 90% of everything we're booking. And that's relief for everything that we're originating and that's really helping the --

我認為有機會談論這個問題，我們也出售了幾乎所有的減價。因此，我們會稍微保留資產負債表，而帳簿可能會解決我們預訂的所有商品的 80% 到 90% 之間的問題。這讓我們所發起的一切都鬆了一口氣，這確實有助於--

Jane we lost you a bit, but we've got most of that. We're selling most of the originators [pricing] the fee income side of it, but it's well run.

簡，我們失去了你一點，但我們已經擁有了大部分。我們出售大部分原創者[定價]其費用收入，但它運作良好。

Can I add that actually mortgage originations went up quarter over quarter. So despite the rate environment, we might think that actually went up and the amount that we sold originations as Jane was saying before we lost their was 92% in the first quarter, 92% of the second quarter. So going just like you're doing according to plan.

我能否補充一點，實際上抵押貸款發放量逐季上升。因此，儘管存在利率環境，我們可能會認為實際銷量有所上升，正如簡所說，在我們失去產品之前，我們銷售的原創產品數量在第一季為 92%，在第二季度為 92%。所以就像你按照計劃做的那樣。

On fee income because wealth was really strong this quarter. Really good sales of fixed annuities in our wealth division. So customers who really want to lock in long-term fixed rates are able to do that in a fixed annuity. And that's a good source of fee income for us.

關於費用收入，因為本季財富非常強勁。我們財富部門的固定年金銷售非常好。因此，真正想要鎖定長期固定利率的客戶可以透過固定年金來做到這一點。這對我們來說是一個很好的費用收入來源。

And just I'll just add one more as SBA is, although our fee income is down a bit for keeping a little bit more on the balance sheet this year, about $38 million more was a little higher yield and we'd like that business. Some our production will be up year-over-year and gain on sale is weighted average premiums are in the high eight. So we have a good team there as well. So hopefully, that can continue to grow and be a tailwind to our fee income.

我就再補充一點，就像 SBA 一樣，儘管今年我們的費用收入因在資產負債表上保持更多一點而有所下降，但大約 3800 萬美元的收益更高了一點，我們希望這項業務。我們的部分產量將年增，銷售收益按加權平均保費計算，處於前八名。所以我們在那裡也有一支優秀的團隊。因此，希望這能繼續成長，並成為我們費用收入的推動力。

Okay. So we have $25 million less Durbin next quarter. Is it safe to say it's a $20 million to $23 million run rate from here?

好的。因此，下個季度杜賓的資金減少了 2,500 萬美元。可以肯定地說，這裡的運行費用為 2000 萬至 2300 萬美元嗎？

Yes. I think that's right. Hang on a sec because again, I looked at the consensus estimates for our fee income. It looked like they really had baked in the served an impact here. We are talking about $3.5 million a quarter so that sounds about right.

是的。我認為這是對的。等一下，因為我再次查看了我們費用收入的共識估計。看起來他們真的在這裡產生了影響。我們談論的是每季 350 萬美元，所以聽起來不錯。

Yes. The consensus is $22.2 million and $22.3 million for the next two quarters. And that's about right.

是的。未來兩季的共識是 2,220 萬美元和 2,230 萬美元。這是正確的。

I appreciate taking all my questions. So apologize for being long-winded again.

我很高興回答我所有的問題。所以再次為囉嗦道歉。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）Frank Schiraldi、Piper Sandler。

Hey guys. Just a few I had remaining or the sub-debt that you retired or redeemed sounds like given capital levels, you no need to replace that with additional debt. Just curious if that's the case and what else you might have coming up that that may be repricing, that would either be retired or refi in this market?

嘿夥計們。我剩下的一些債務或您退休或贖回的次級債務聽起來像是給定的資本水平，您無需用額外的債務來取代它。只是好奇如果是這種情況，您可能還會想到什麼可能會重新定價，或者在這個市場上退休或重新定價？

Yes. No, thanks very much, Frank. And I appreciate that because we actually spent a lot of time with our bankers looking at replacement options starting over a little over a year ago to look at what was available in the market to replace that capital instrument in case we needed a capital. That's why we're so pleased that capital generation especially we're just capital generation from a dollar perspective and a ratio perspective is strong enough that we didn't have to replace it all. I think that couple of quarters ago, the message was the window for sub-debt issuances really closed.

是的。不，非常感謝，弗蘭克。我很欣賞這一點，因為我們實際上花了很多時間與銀行家一起研究替代方案，從一年多前開始，看看市場上有什麼可以取代該資本工具，以防我們需要資本。這就是為什麼我們如此高興，資本生成，特別是我們只是從美元角度和比率角度來看的資本生成足夠強大，我們不必全部更換。我認為幾個季度前，發出的信息是次級債務發行的窗口確實關閉了。

And then what we saw starting to open, but still would have been possible but more expensive than what we just got rid of. So we just got rid of the 7.5%. We were probably hearing indicative price talk of 8.5% to 9% for new sub debt issuance. And so we have just so glad we didn't have to do that on the sub-debt and there were other options we would have looked at like preferred because of the Tier 1 treatment.

然後我們看到的開始開放，但仍然是可能的，但比我們剛剛擺脫的要貴。所以我們剛剛去掉了 7.5%。我們可能聽到關於新次級債券發行 8.5% 至 9% 的指示性價格討論。因此，我們很高興我們不必在次級債務上這樣做，並且由於一級待遇，我們會考慮其他選擇。

But at the end of the day, we're just really glad we could just let it go and pay it off and not have to do anything to replace it. The only other thing we have I guess there's still to this day, we are a piece of this other dimension, but we got four years to go at 5.5%. So when rates fell to zero that seem like a bad deal now seems like a good deal. So we've got the assets for years to go for treatment. So I know that's callable anyway for four years, and then we'll re-examine the call at that time.

但最終，我們真的很高興我們可以放手並還清它，而不必做任何事情來替換它。我想我們唯一擁有的其他東西仍然存在，我們是另一個維度的一部分，但我們還有四年的時間保持 5.5% 的成長率。因此，當利率降至零時，這看起來是一筆糟糕的交易，現在看來卻是一筆不錯的交易。所以我們有多年的資產可以用於治療。所以我知道無論如何，四年內都可以調用，然後我們將在那時重新審查該調用。

And we still have a trust preferred outstanding, about $70 million in the holding company on and that we swap into fixed rates and the slowdown we saw in the fixed rates. I don't have it off the top my head. I think this I think it slipped into the fours. So it's pretty good money and it's still we're grandfathered in. So that's a Tier 1 instrument.

我們仍然有未償還的信託優先股，大約 7000 萬美元在控股公司，我們將其轉換為固定利率，我們看到固定利率的放緩。我並沒有把它拋在腦後。我認為這我認為它滑成了四肢。所以這是一筆相當不錯的錢，而且仍然是我們的祖父。這是一級工具。

The only thing that would make us call that because we're grandfathered in is if we grew over $15 billion in total assets through acquisition because on a regulatory perspective, that's when you lose the grandfathered Tier 1 treatment. So if that day ever comes, that would trigger a desire to refinance that, but not right now.

唯一能讓我們這麼稱呼的原因是，如果我們透過收購使總資產成長超過 150 億美元，因為從監管角度來看，我們就失去了祖父級待遇。因此，如果那一天到來，就會引發再融資的願望，但不是現在。

Okay. And then just I know acquisition math and provisioning can be a little different, but I'm just what I'm thinking about the centric deal, which obviously closed I think, last year and you mentioned the NPAs that came over in the migration in the quarter.

好的。然後我知道收購數學和配置可能有點不同，但我只是對中心交易的思考，我認為去年顯然已經結束了，你提到了在遷移中出現的 NPA該季度。

Well, I think majority was from the centric deal from the provisioning that was associated with the migration. And so I would have thought that because Centric was marked already, you know, no need for additional provisioning. Is that can you just walk me through that. Was that more so on the other piece that was originated in Houston and I guess just anything kind of bulky that significant on one significant loan where we could end up seeing some outsized charge-offs down the road?

嗯，我認為大部分來自與遷移相關的配置的中心交易。所以我以為，因為 Centric 已經被標記了，所以不需要額外的配置。可以幫我介紹一下嗎？在另一件源自休士頓的作品上更是如此嗎？

Yes. So Frank, I'll start a little bit with just a little bit from a maybe more technical accounting perspective. What would the marks were origination and then ultimately on final marks, and then I'll turn it to Brian for the extra color you're asking for.

是的。弗蘭克，我將從可能更技術性的會計角度開始。標記是起源，然後最終是最終標記，然後我會將其轉給布萊恩以獲取您要求的額外顏色。

So the marks I like I mentioned earlier were around the 3.2% to 3.3%. At the time the deal was closed. Under the accounting rules, we were able to take some more and once we owned it have until June 30 of last year, take some of the marks that we saw back at goodwill. And so the total credit mark ended up being 3.76% on that deal.

所以我之前提到的喜歡的分數在 3.2% 到 3.3% 左右。當時交易已完成。根據會計規則，我們能夠收回更多，一旦我們擁有它，我們就可以在去年 6 月 30 日之前收回我們以商譽方式看到的一些標記。因此，該交易的總信用分數最終為 3.76%。

As Mike said, that was priced into the deal. So we thought that was marked appropriately and priced appropriately. But under that credit mark that is being $36 million, $37 million credit mark, $27 million was for PCD and about $9.6 million was non-PCD. So that $27 million and it has limited reserve on top of that, there was a day one reserve of about $10 million.

正如麥克所說，這已包含在交易中。所以我們認為它的標記和定價是適當的。但在 3,600 萬美元的信用額度下，3,700 萬美元的信用額度中，2,700 萬美元用於 PCD，約 960 萬美元用於非 PCD。因此，2,700 萬美元的儲備金有限，第一天的儲備金約為 1,000 萬美元。

Now so when we -- earlier in the prepared remarks, we're saying we added about $11 million to $14million this quarter to specific reserves for centric. Those aren't related to the timing of acquisition. We've owned it now for a while. So there are this for whatever happens to that portfolio existing. So the $11 million of new specific reserves that we put on this quarter related to centric originated loans are not from acquisition. That's from our under our period of ownership with additional reserves on top of what I just described this morning and then for additional color on maybe to. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead, Brian.

現在，當我們 - 早些時候在準備好的發言中，我們說我們本季為 Central 的特定準備金增加了約 1100 萬至 1400 萬美元。這些與收購時間無關。我們已經擁有它有一段時間了。因此，無論現有的投資組合發生什麼，都會有這個。因此，我們本季新增的與中心發放貸款相關的 1,100 萬美元特定準備金並非來自收購。這是我們擁有期間的情況，除了我今天早上剛剛描述的內容之外，還有額外的儲備，然後也許還有更多的色彩。是的。是的。繼續吧，布萊恩。

Yes. So Frank, we didn't put out $5.8 million an increase in specific reserves this quarter. That was largely due to one $9 million credit that we needed to add $4.8 million of specific for it. You'll see our specific reserves did increase. Correspondingly, our reserves went up 137 basis points from 130 basis points to 132 basis points and we're well reserved.

是的。弗蘭克，本季我們沒有增加 580 萬美元的特定準備金。這主要是由於 900 萬美元的信貸，我們需要為此增加 480 萬美元的專款。您會看到我們的特定儲備確實增加了。相應地，我們的準備金增加了137個基點，從130個基點增加到132個基點，我們的儲備充足。

Okay. So that was one centric loan then that that caused the bulk of the addition of reserves in the quarter?

好的。那麼，這是一筆中心貸款，導致了本季準備金的大部分增加？

That's exactly Right.

完全正確。

Okay. And then just lastly, on the NIM., I'm just want to make sure I understand if I'm looking at page 14 of the presentation. So the cumulative net impact scenarios you give at the bottom there, the two scenarios that's just the swap terminations, correct? Not your expectation of them in total over the next several quarters.

好的。最後，在 NIM 上，我只是想確保我是否理解我正在查看的簡報的第 14 頁。那麼，您在底部給出的累積淨影響情景，這兩種情景只是交換終止，對嗎？不是您對未來幾季的整體預期。

You have it exactly right. That's the contribution of that or any projection of the rest of that.

你說得完全正確。這就是其中的貢獻或其餘部分的任何預測。

Right. Okay.

正確的。好的。

And then maybe you could just remind sorry if I missed it but obviously recognizing, given your commentary there, you think you're at trough on them anyway, regardless of the near term rate picture, NIM should move higher and what does a 25 basis points cut on two Fed funds. What is the projection? What does that do to the NIM on an annualized basis, all else equal, all else equal?

然後也許你可以提醒一下，如果我錯過了，抱歉，但顯然認識到，考慮到你在那裡的評論，你認為你無論如何都處於低谷，無論近期利率情況如何，NIM 應該走高，25 基點意味著什麼兩檔聯邦基金的點數被下調。什麼是投影？在其他條件相同的情況下，這對年化淨利差有何影響？

All else equal, normally our answer has always been about 5 basis points. Probably it depends on the season, maybe it's 3 basis points to 5 basis points, but it's just not it's not working that way, right. Now. So when I look at, for example, those forecasts and I was talking about earlier, I could have with a Moody's baseline forecast, the Fed funds had been cut down to 4.75. By the end of this year, our loan yields still goes up. So our NIM piece shifting up, that's the notable effect.

在其他條件相同的情況下，通常我們的答案總是 5 個基點左右。也許這取決於季節，也許是 3 個基點到 5 個基點，但事實並非如此，對吧。現在。例如，當我查看這些預測時，我之前談到過，我可以根據穆迪的基準預測，將聯邦基金利率下調至 4.75。到今年年底，我們的貸款收益率仍在上升。所以我們的 NIM 部分向上移動，這是顯著的效果。

So it's not -- if all else was equal and we've been in this rate environment for a long time and everything has stabilized, it didn't have positive repricing, you'll still going on. And then you had a cut, maybe you'd see that 5 basis points per quarter and maybe you could say it's still 5 basis points per cut, but not per quarter.

所以事實並非如此——如果其他條件都相同，而且我們已經處於這種利率環境很長一段時間了，一切都已經穩定下來，沒有積極的重新定價，你仍然會繼續下去。然後你進行了降息，也許你會看到每季降息 5 個基點，也許你可以說每次降息仍然是 5 個基點，但不是每季降息 5 個基點。

That's overall home for a long haul. It's just not modeling out that way right now. So it's hard to even describe it that way. That's been a rule of thumb for why we said that three years ago. But so we are just positioned right now that de-risks us we're still the fixed loans are still pretty pricing upwards stuff, a little pickup in deposit rates before relative to bring those down.

這是一個長期的家。只是現在還沒有用這種方式建模。所以很難這樣描述它。這是我們三年前這麼說的一個經驗法則。但我們現在的定位是降低風險，固定貸款的定價仍然相當高，存款利率在相對下降之前略有上升。

And then the macro swaps coming off is just some of the dynamics affecting, if you say on page 8, is there a rule of thumb.

然後，巨集交換的出現只是一些動態影響，如果你在第 8 頁說，是否有經驗法則。

Okay. No, I appreciate. I mean, I assume that obviously for the higher for longer, like you said, is better. So there is some negative impact even if the name is going to go higher either way, there's still some it'll move even higher and a higher for longer environment. So yeah, I had just some I guess, but three to five, maybe longer term could still be sort of a good rule of thumb just doesn't seem like in the near term, you would see that.

好的。不，我很欣賞。我的意思是，我認為顯然對於更高的時間來說，時間更長，就像你說的那樣，更好。因此，即使名稱會以任何方式走高，也會產生一些負面影響，但仍然有一些它會在更長的環境中走得更高。所以，是的，我猜只有一些，但是三到五個，也許從長遠來看仍然是一個很好的經驗法則，只是短期內似乎不會，你會看到這一點。

Yes, you're exactly right. You're exactly right. And we still are -- were paying for a flat rate environment. So because we do much better on their other effects to, I think below a little bit low rates do help. This came up earlier in the call spur a little consumer demand. They help some of our clients with credit quality. So there are other benefits from a couple of cuts and first of all, on deposit rate demand. So there's some benefits to right there are higher for longer is definitely better.

是的，你說得完全正確。你說得完全正確。我們仍然在為統一費率環境付費。因此，因為我們在其他方面做得更好，我認為低於一點點的低利率確實有幫助。早些時候在電話會議中提到的這一點刺激了一些消費者需求。他們幫助我們的一些客戶提高信用品質。因此，幾次降息還有其他好處，首先是存款利率需求。所以有一些好處，越高越好，時間越長肯定越好。

Got you. Okay. I appreciate all the color. Thanks.

明白你了。好的。我欣賞所有的顏色。謝謝。

But we have no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call back to Mike Price for any closing remarks.

但目前我們沒有進一步的問題。我會將電話轉回給麥克普萊斯 (Mike Price)，讓其結束語。

Just as always, appreciate your interest in our company and look forward to being with a number of you over the course of the next quarter. Thank you very much.

一如既往，感謝您對我們公司的興趣，並期待在下個季度與您合作。非常感謝。

And that will conclude our call today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。