First Commonwealth Financial Corp (FCF) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the First Commonwealth Financial Corporation third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question again. Press the star one. Thank you. I now like to turn the call over to Ryan Thomas, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. You may begin.

感謝您的耐心等待並歡迎參加第一聯邦金融公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。如果您想在此期間提出問題，只需按電話鍵盤上的星號，然後再按數字 1 即可。如果您想再次撤回您的問題。按星號一。謝謝。我現在想將電話轉給財務和投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Thomas。你可以開始了。

Thanks Rob and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's third quarter. Financial results participating on today's call will be Mike Price President and CEO Jim Reske, Chief Financial Officer, Jane Grabens Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer, Brian Saki, Chief Credit Officer, and Mike mcewen, our Chief Lending Officer as a reminder, a copy of yesterday's earnings release can be accessed by logging on to FC banking dotcom and selecting the investor relations link at the top of the page. We have also included a slide presentation on our on our investor relations website with supplemental information that will be referenced during today's call. Before we begin, I need to caution listeners that this call will contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to our forward-looking statements disclaimer on page 3 of the slide presentation for a description of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statement. Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Nongaap financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for our reported results prepared. In accordance with GAAP reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of today's slide presentation with that. I will turn the call over to Mike.

謝謝羅布，大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們討論第一聯邦金融公司第三季的情況。出席今天電話會議的財務業績嘉賓包括：邁克·普萊斯(Mike Price) 總裁兼首席執行官、首席財務官吉姆·雷斯克(Jim Reske)、簡·格拉本斯銀行(Jane Grabens Bank) 總裁兼首席營收官、首席信貸官布萊恩·薩基(Brian Saki) 和我們的首席貸款官邁克·麥克文(Mike mcewen)。的收益發布。我們還在投資者關係網站上提供了幻燈片演示，其中包含將在今天的電話會議中引用的補充資訊。在開始之前，我需要提醒聽眾，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱投影片簡報第 3 頁的前瞻性聲明免責聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中反映的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性的描述。今天的電話會議還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。Nongaap 財務指標應被視為我們報告結果的補充，而不是替代。根據 GAAP 對這些措施的調整可以在今天投影片簡報的附錄中找到。我會把電話轉給麥克。

Hey, thank you Ryan and welcome everyone. Third quarter, 2024 core earnings per share were 31¢. Loans were essentially flat deposits grew and the net interest margin fell one basis point to 3.56% as rates declined in anticipation of the fed rate cut in September growth in other fee income offset a $3 million decreased and interchange income as we incurred. The long anticipated impact of Durbin expenses were elevated primarily due to several one time items. All the all of this led to pre tax pre provision ROA of 1.73% efficiency ratio of 56.66% and core pre-tax pre provision net revenue of $50.9 million which was it was within $1 million of analyst consensus turning to credit the provision expense at $10.6 million was up $2.8 million over the second quarter. Our credit story in the third quarter was largely the tail of four credits embedded within the elevated provision expense are specific reserves for two legacy loans and two charge offs related to the centric acquisition. Now in our capital region, most but not all of the two centric charge offs had been previously provided for, but they together accounted for approximately $1.5 million of provision expense this quarter on top of the $5.5 million for the two legacy loads. Over the last seven quarters, a disproportionate share of our credit costs have stemmed from our acquisition of Centric that closed in the first quarter of 2023. As we've shared previously, we understood their credit profile going in. So we marked the credit and the price, the deal accordingly. However, the acquired portfolio continues to impact our credit performance for a bank that was 10% of our size. The former centric loans have accounted for for 76% of commercial charge offs and 51% of total charge offs in 2023 in 2024 year-to-date former centric loans have accounted for 86% of commercial charge offs and 42% of total charge offs at September 30th criticized loans were 2.68% of total loans excluding centric loans. That ratio would be 1.69% which is actually an improvement from the 1.72% figure on the day that centric closed. However, we continue to make substantive progress with centric credits in the capital region each quarter. Also important stronger third quarter gain on sale income and sp a alongside increases in service charge and wealth management income and $926,000 in bulle income. All work together to blunt the $3 million impact of having our debit card interchange income cut in half due to the Durbin amendment. In fact, non interest income income drifted down only $683,000. Looking ahead ahead, we expect non interest income to be in the $22 million to $24 million range in the fourth quarter. Turning now to expenses. We had elevated expenses this quarter of $70.1 million up $4.3 million over the prior quarter. Third quarter, expenses reflect approximately $1.8 million of 11-time items including a one point $1.1 million operational loss in credit card and it's $750,000 in severance expense. We expect non-interest expense to be $67 million to $68 million range in the fourth quarter. Beyond the financials, there are a few other items worth mentioning. First Commonwealth earn recognition as the number two SB a lender by dollars in Western Pennsylvania for the 2024 fiscal year ending in September as of October 15th, our overall customer satisfaction score and net promoter scores have hit five-year peaks at 90.4 and 70.3 respectively. We've seen a steady trend of increases in these figures since 2020 with both exceeding industry benchmarks. These are important metrics for us, especially as we cross $10 billion in assets.

嘿，謝謝瑞安，歡迎大家。2024 年第三季核心每股收益為 31 美分。貸款基本上持平，存款成長，淨利差下降 1 個基點至 3.56%，因為預期聯準會 9 月降息，利率下降，其他費用收入的成長抵消了我們產生的 300 萬美元的減少和互換收入。杜賓支出的長期預期影響增加，主要是由於幾個一次性項目。這一切導致稅前撥備前ROA 為1.73%，效率率為56.66%，核心稅前撥備前淨收入為5,090 萬美元，與分析師一致認為撥備費用為10.6 美元計入貸方的情況相差不到100 萬美元。我們第三季的信貸故事主要是嵌入在增加的撥備費用中的四項信貸的尾部，這些信貸是兩項遺留貸款的特定準備金和與中心收購相關的兩項沖銷。現在，在我們的首都地區，兩個中心沖銷中的大部分（但不是全部）之前已撥備，但除了兩個遺留負載的550 萬美元之外，本季度它們總共佔了約150 萬美元的撥備費用。在過去的七個季度中，我們的信貸成本中很大一部分源自於我們對 Centric 的收購（該收購於 2023 年第一季完成）。正如我們之前分享的，我們了解他們的信用狀況。因此，我們標記了信用和價格，並相應地進行了交易。然而，收購的投資組合繼續影響我們規模僅為我們 10% 的銀行的信貸表現。2023 年，前中心貸款佔商業沖銷的 76%，佔沖銷總額的 51%。不包括中心貸款的貸款總額的2.68%。該比率將為 1.69%，實際上比中心關閉當天的 1.72% 有所改善。然而，我們每季在首都地區的中心信貸方面繼續取得實質進展。同樣重要的是，第三季銷售收入和銷售收入的成長強勁，同時服務費和財富管理收入以及 926,000 美元的大額收入也有所增加。所有人員共同努力，減輕因德賓修正案導致我們的借記卡交換收入減少一半而造成的 300 萬美元的影響。事實上，非利息收入僅下降了 683,000 美元。展望未來，我們預計第四季非利息收入將在 2,200 萬美元至 2,400 萬美元之間。現在轉向費用。本季我們的支出比上一季增加了 430 萬美元，增加了 7,010 萬美元。第三季度，費用反映了約 180 萬美元的 11 個項目，其中包括 110 萬美元的信用卡營運損失和 75 萬美元的遣散費。我們預計第四季非利息支出將在 6,700 萬美元至 6,800 萬美元之間。除了財務狀況之外，還有其他一些值得一提的項目。截至10 月15 日，截至9 月的2024 財年，First Commonwealth 被評為賓州西部第二大SB 貸款機構，我們的整體客戶滿意度評分和淨推薦評分分別達到90.4 和70.3 的五年來最高點。自 2020 年以來，我們看到這些數字呈現穩定成長趨勢，均超過了產業基準。這些對我們來說都是重要的指標，尤其是當我們的資產超過 100 億美元時。

Although we are disappointed by our third quarter earnings per share, Miss, I'm encouraged by the momentum in our businesses and prospects for stronger growth ahead. Despite a relatively healthy level of loan originations. This year, our overall loan growth has in some ways been purposefully muted by one. Our rebuilding of the centric portfolio. Two, our strategic decision to reduce exposure to certain sectors like sponsor finance and three, the ship is selling nearly all of our mortgage originations. More importantly, our regional Presidents have a growth mindset have attracted new commercial banking talent that will drive the bank forward for years to come. Our new capital region credit performance will converge with the strong credit metrics at first commonwealth overall and become a key source of future growth in attractive central and eastern P A markets. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim Resy.

小姐，儘管我們對第三季的每股盈餘感到失望，但我對我們業務的勢頭和未來更強勁增長的前景感到鼓舞。儘管貸款發放水準相對健康。今年，我們的整體貸款成長在某些方面被有意抑制了。我們重建中心投資組合。第二，我們的策略決定是減少對贊助商融資等某些行業的曝險；第三，這艘船正在出售我們幾乎所有的抵押貸款。更重要的是，我們的地區行長具有成長型思維，吸引了新的商業銀行人才，這將推動銀行在未來幾年持續前進。我們新首都地區的信貸表現將與整個聯邦的強勁信貸指標趨同，並成為有吸引力的中部和東部 PA 市場未來成長的主要來源。接下來，我會將其交給吉姆·雷西 (Jim Resy)。

Jim Thanks, Mike.

吉姆 謝謝，麥克。

Mike's already talked about the major financial metrics. So I'll take a closer look at the net interest margins and then wrap up with about 30 seconds on capital.

麥克已經談到了主要的財務指標。因此，我將仔細研究淨利差，然後用大約 30 秒的時間介紹資本。

Last quarter. Our nim guidance was for quote stability or even slight improvement from current levels for the remainder of 2024 give or take 5 basis points as usual.

上個季度。我們的 nim 指引是為了保持報價穩定性，甚至在 2024 年剩餘時間內比當前水準略有改善，像往常一樣上下浮動 5 個基點。

While we didn't get the slight improvement part, we did get the stability part. Our name guidance didn't contemplate a 50 basis points rate cut in September. So, in that sense, we were pleased to see our name exhibit relative stability by only going down by one basis point from last quarter.

雖然我們沒有得到輕微的改進部分，但我們確實得到了穩定性部分。我們的名稱指導並未考慮 9 月降息 50 個基點。因此，從這個意義上說，我們很高興看到我們的名字表現出相對穩定性，僅比上季度下降了一個基點。

The name is facing various headwinds and tailwinds that largely offset each other in the third quarter.

該公司面臨著各種逆風和順風，這些逆風和順風在第三季基本上相互抵消。

But they do give us some insight into where the name is going.

但它們確實讓我們對這個名字的去向有了一些了解。

One headwind is excess cash.

一個不利因素是現金過多。

We've been holding excess cash all year because we locked in low cost borrowings through the Feds VTFP program early in the year and we were reluctant to pay that off.

我們全年都持有過剩現金，因為我們在年初透過聯準會 VTFP 計畫鎖定了低成本借款，而我們不願意還清這筆資金。

Plus loan growth was slightly negative in the third quarter while deposits continue to grow, resulting in a steady build of excess cash. On top of that, we received a large commercial deposit right at the end of the third quarter.

再加上第三季貸款略有負成長，而存款持續成長，導致現金過剩穩定增加。最重要的是，我們在第三季末收到了一大筆商業存款。

All of this cash had a suppressive effect on the nim even though it's additive to earnings because it pumps up both sides of the balance sheet with a very thin margin asset that cash had a suppressive effect of 6 basis points on the NIM in the second quarter. But in the third quarter, that's the press effects 9 basis points neutral in the effect of excess cash in both quarters will therefore have changed our 1 basis point of impression to 2 basis points of expansion. But realistically, that's all still within the range of what we would call stability.

所有這些現金都對淨利差產生了抑製作用，儘管它對收益有所增加，因為它用利潤非常微薄的資產推高了資產負債表的兩側，而現金在第二季度對淨息差產生了6 個基點的抑製作用。但在第三季度，這兩個季度的過剩現金影響中性的 9 個基點的媒體效應將因此將我們的 1 個基點的印象改變為 2 個基點的擴張。但實際上，這一切仍然在我們所說的穩定範圍內。

Looking forward, the headwind of excess cash has been largely removed because on October 3rd, we used it to pay down $436 million of the $516 million of VTFP borrowings that we had, and we will likely pay down the remaining $80 million when the fed raises rates here in November.

展望未來，多餘現金的阻力已基本消除，因為在 10 月 3 日，我們用它償還了 5.16 億美元 VTFP 借款中的 4.36 億美元，當美聯儲加息時，我們可能會償還剩餘的 8000 萬美元十一月份的房價。

Another headwind of the nim was the 8 basis points increase in our cost of deposits. That 8 basis points increase however, was down from 10 basis points in the second quarter and a 25 basis points increase in the first quarter. We expect that downward trend to continue the pace of what we call deposit rotation. That is the migration of deposit dollars from lower cost of the categories to higher cost ones continue to slow down in each month of the third quarter.

尼姆的另一個阻力是我們的存款成本增加了 8 個基點。然而，8 個基點的增幅低於第二季的 10 個基點和第一季的 25 個基點。我們預計這種下降趨勢將繼續我們所說的存款輪換的步伐。也就是說，第三季每個月，存款從較低成本類別持續到較高成本類別的遷移。

Another indicator of the slowdown is the cost of interest bearing non time deposits or savings and now accounts which have been moving up by 3 to 4 basis points per month in the second quarter, but didn't go up at all in the third quarter.

經濟放緩的另一個指標是計息非定期存款或儲蓄的成本，現在的帳戶在第二季度每月上升 3 至 4 個基點，但在第三季度根本沒有上升。

Perhaps more importantly, the incremental cost of deposit growth in the first quarter was about 4.21%. In the second quarter. It fell to 3.61%. And in the third quarter, it fell again to 3.22%.

也許更重要的是，第一季存款成長的增量成本約為4.21%。在第二季。跌至3.61%。而到了第三季度，再次下滑至3.22%。

In terms of competition. We see deposit pricing pressure pressures abating rapidly in our markets allowing for lower deposit repricing upon the jury without jeopardizing our deposit growth trajectory. And that trajectory has been remarkable 8% deposit growth on an annualized basis. So far this year, that deposit growth helped bring our loan to deposit ratio down by 360 basis points in the third quarter to 92.5% of September 30th.

就競爭而言。我們看到市場上的存款定價壓力迅速減輕，從而允許陪審團對存款進行較低的重新定價，而不會危及我們的存款成長軌跡。以年化計算，存款成長率達到了 8%，令人矚目。今年到目前為止，存款成長幫助我們的貸存比在第三季下降了 360 個基點，至 9 月 30 日的 92.5%。

As for loans replacing yields have been a tailwind to the NIM all through this rising rate cycle loan yields went up by 3 basis points in the third quarter. Largely because new loans still came on the books at about 50 basis points higher than the ones that ran off.

至於貸款替代收益率，在整個利率上升週期中一直是淨利差的推動力，第三季貸款收益率上升了 3 個基點。主要是因為帳面上的新貸款仍比流失的貸款高出約 50 個基點。

About a third of our total loan production in the third quarter was fixed rate loans and those fixed rate loans actually came on the books at 172 basis points higher than the fixed rate loans that ran off.

第三季我們的總貸款產量中約有三分之一是固定利率貸款，這些固定利率貸款實際上比流失的固定利率貸款高出 172 個基點。

We believe that this upper rate pricing should continue for a while even in the face of falling rates.

我們認為，即使面對利率下降，這種較高的利率定價也應該會持續一段時間。

This environment is one in which we're glad to have built a diversified bank with a broad mix of fixed and variable loans and loan types both in our portfolio and in our origination mix.

在這種環境下，我們很高興能夠建立一家多元化的銀行，在我們的投資組合和發起組合中提供廣泛的固定和可變貸款以及貸款類型。

In addition to all that, there are a few other tails to the NIM that are incorporated into our forecast as well. Purchase accounting contributed about 7 basis points in the third quarter down by about 1 basis point from the prior quarter. We do however expect that benefit to fall to only 4 to 5 basis points next quarter.

除此之外，淨利差的一些其他尾部也被納入我們的預測中。第三季採購會計貢獻約7個基點，較上季下降約1個基點。然而，我們預計下個季度這一收益將降至僅 4 至 5 個基點。

And we are looking forward to the expiration of received fixed macro swaps in the near future. $50 million of received fixed macro swaps mature in the fourth quarter of 2024 $250 million mature in 2025 and $175 million mature in 2026. These expirations should provide a lift to our name in 2025 and in 2026 that however brings us to the biggest headwind to our name. Rate cuts about 50% of our loan portfolio is priced off of one month so far. So rate cuts are felt immediately. Our latest forecast calls for fed funds to end 2024 at 4.29%.

我們期待收到的固定宏觀掉期在不久的將來到期。收到的固定宏觀互換中的 5,000 萬美元將於 2024 年第四季到期，其中 2.5 億美元將於 2025 年到期，1.75 億美元將於 2026 年到期。這些到期應該會在 2025 年和 2026 年為我們的聲譽帶來提升，然而，這給我們帶來了最大的阻力。到目前為止，我們的貸款組合中約 50% 的降息是按一個月定價的。因此，降息是立即感受到的。我們最新的預測是聯邦基金利率到 2024 年底將達到 4.29%。

And in 2025 at 2.95% that's about 40 to 50 basis points lower than our rate forecast than the rate forecast. That we used last quarter.

2025 年利率為 2.95%，比我們的利率預測低約 40 至 50 個基點。我們上季使用過的。

So, taking all of these headlines and ts into account, our guides for the fourth quarter for the fourth quarter sounds a lot like what we said last quarter ability, at least for the near term in our latest forecast. Our name stays in the mid 350's range through the first quarter of 2025. As always give or take 5 basis points for normal variability then gradually falls over the course of the year to end the year 2025 in the mid 340's, about 10 basis points lower than where we are today.

因此，考慮到所有這些頭條新聞和技術指標，我們對第四季度的指導聽起來很像我們上季度所說的能力，至少在我們最新預測中的近期是如此。到 2025 年第一季度，我們的名稱將保持在 350 左右。像往常一樣，正常波動會增加或減少 5 個基點，然後在一年中逐漸下降，到 2025 年結束時為 340 年代中期，比今天的水平低約 10 個基點。

That is too, by the way, a return to normalized mid single digit loan growth in 2025 you might sum it up this way. All of the new tailings, we have removal of excess cash following deposit rates, positive loan replacement yields, macro swap expirations, all of them work together to blunt the effective falling rates that aren't quite enough to overcome them if rates fall fast enough to bracket this for you and give you some idea of the impact of rates on our balance sheet. If the fed funds rate falls to the projected year end, 22 level year end 2024 level of 4.29% and then just hold at that level through year end 2025 the tail ones would win out in that scenario. We would expect that our name would actually increase steadily over the course of 2025 in into the mid 360's.

順便說一句，到 2025 年，貸款成長將回歸正常化的中個位數，你可以這樣總結。所有新的尾礦，我們都在存款利率、正貸款替代收益率、宏觀掉期到期後去除了多餘的現金，所有這些都共同作用來削弱有效的利率下降，如果利率下降得足夠快，則不足以克服它們為您列出這一點，並讓您了解利率對我們資產負債表的影響。如果聯邦基金利率降至預計的 2024 年底 22 水平 4.29%，然後在 2025 年底之前保持在該水平，那麼尾部利率將在這種情況下勝出。我們預計我們的名字實際上會在 2025 年進入 360 年代中期穩定增長。

I would note that the futures market is currently projecting a year end 2025 fed funds rate at 3.4% which is about 45 basis points higher than our latest rate forecast. So reality will likely play out somewhere in the middle in terms of capital management, tangible book value per share increased 47¢ from the previous quarter to $10.03 due in part to a $28 million reduction in AOCI we raised the threshold for share repurchases this quarter buying on prices below $17 a share. And so this quarter, we repurchased 146,850 shares at an average price of $16.83.

我要指出的是，期貨市場目前預計 2025 年底聯邦基金利率為 3.4%，比我們最新的利率預測高出約 45 個基點。因此，現實情況可能會在資本管理方面發揮中間作用，每股有形帳面價值比上一季增加47 美分，達到10.03 美元，部分原因是AOCI 減少2,800 萬美元，我們提高了本季股票回購的門檻價格低於每股 17 美元。因此，本季度，我們以 16.83 美元的平均價格回購了 146,850 股股票。

And with that, we'll take any questions you may have.

接下來，我們將回答您可能提出的任何問題。

Thank you. We'll now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you'd like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Tamao from Raymond James. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。如果您想提問，請按下電話鍵盤上的星號一舉手並加入隊列。如果您想撤回問題，只需再次按星號一即可。你的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Daniel Tamao。您的線路已開通。

Sorry about that. Good afternoon guys. Hopefully you can hear me. Okay. Maybe first to start just on as we think about overall asset growth. Just curious where you stand on, you know, where you want the size of the securities portfolio going forward and you touched a little bit on the loan deposit ratio kind of similar. Just curious if you still want that coming down from these levels or, or you're comfortable in the 92% level.

對此感到抱歉。各位下午好。希望你能聽到我的聲音。好的。也許首先是在我們考慮整體資產成長時開始的。只是好奇你的立場，你知道，你希望未來證券投資組合的規模在哪裡，你對貸款存款比率有點類似。只是好奇您是否仍希望從這些水平下降，或者您對 92% 的水平感到滿意。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah. No, just to be we we expect the security portfolio to expand a little bit over the next year, maybe by about $100 million over the course of 2025 from where it is today. Not huge expansion, but we want to grow it a little bit.

是的。不，我們預計安全投資組合在明年會略有擴大，到 2025 年可能會比現在增加約 1 億美元。不是大規模擴張，但我們想稍微成長一點。

Is that what you're asking, Danny?

這就是你問的嗎，丹尼？

It is. Yeah, yeah, thank you. And then and just to follow up switching gears to credit, just maybe if you could provide a little detail on the the loans, I apologize if I did miss this earlier. But the the loans that you took specific reserves on the quarter.

這是。是啊，是啊，謝謝。然後，為了跟進向信貸的轉變，也許您可以提供有關貸款的一些細節，如果我之前錯過了這一點，我深表歉意。但是您在本季取得的特定準備金的貸款。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Turn over to Brian Sohocki.

交給布萊恩·索霍基。

Hey Daniel. Yeah, on the reserve side, there was two credits that, you know, drove the specific reserve for, for the period in the provision. First was a $2.7 million specific reserve taken on a $10 million fully funded construction loan. That was for a mixed use office property located here in Pittsburgh.

嘿丹尼爾。是的，在儲備金方面，有兩個積分推動了規定期間的特定儲備金。首先是為 1,000 萬美元的全額建設貸款提取 270 萬美元的專案儲備。那是位於匹茲堡的混合用途辦公物業。

This is a participation in a global $58 million loan. The property came to a maturity in the third quarter. And while an amendments being negotiated, the current level of vacancy combined with the uncertain outlook resulted in the move of the entire $10 million balance to non performing.

這是參與一項全球 5800 萬美元貸款。該物業於第三季到期。雖然正在就修正案進行談判，但當前的空缺水平加上不確定的前景導致全部 1000 萬美元餘額轉為不良資產。

The second driver and that provision was a $2.8 million specific reserve taken on a $4.8 million term loan. That loan was in our sponsor finance portfolio. The credit specifically was in the distribution space and while payments do remain current, the long long term outlook is challenged that accounted for $5.5 million of the provision in the primary increase in the specific.

第二個驅動力和該準備金是對 480 萬美元定期貸款提取的 280 萬美元特定準備金。這筆貸款屬於我們的贊助商融資組合。信貸具體用於分配領域，雖然付款確實保持最新狀態，但長期前景受到挑戰，佔特定主要增加撥款中的 550 萬美元。

The two combined?

兩者結合？

The two combined.

兩者結合。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Karl Shepard from RBC capital markets.

來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的卡爾‧謝潑德 (Karl Shepard)。

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

嘿，下午好，夥計們。

Just to pick up on credit for a second, can you anything you can say about expected block content from two of those two legacy credits?

簡單來說一下信用，您能對這兩個遺留信用中的兩個的預期區塊內容說些什麼嗎？

Lost content on legacy credit.

遺留信用內容遺失。

Sure.

當然。

You know, the driver of the short term outlook for our charge offs will be, you know, through the specifics that we've made. We've had appraisals for the real estate property. And we expect to come to resolution over the next, you know, short term period, next quarter to two.

您知道，我們的沖銷短期前景的驅動力將取決於我們所製定的具體細節。我們對房地產進行了評估。我們預計將在下一個短期內（下個季度到兩個季度）達成解決方案。

Okay. So maybe not much in the way of incremental permission for those two.

好的。因此，對於這兩個人來說，增量許可的方式可能不多。

The would be the next big thing.

這將是下一件大事。

Okay and then just to follow up on the centric credit piece, you mentioned convergence with the broader portfolio kind of over what timeline, and would you expect any more erosions or charge offs or kind of anything to emerge before we, before we get to kind of a steady state, you know, back with the larger book?

好的，然後為了跟進中心信用部分，您提到了在什麼時間範圍內與更廣泛的投資組合趨同，您是否期望在我們之前、在我們開始之前出現更多的侵蝕或沖銷或類似的情況穩定狀態，你知道，回到更大的書嗎？

I'll just start out at a little higher level. Carl just looking at centric, you know, the criticized loans decreased from $124 million in the second quarter to 102. This quarter, the watch loans decreased $271million to $261 million. So, we are seeing those come down from highs and watch has been consistently improving from $376 million to start the year. So, we have a group of swat lenders that are out there in early-stage collections and are really working bank and that's we've seen nice results from that. What do you want to add, Brian?

我將從更高的水平開始。卡爾只是看看中心，你知道，受到批評的貸款從第二季的 1.24 億美元減少到了 102 筆。本季度，手錶貸款減少了 2.71 億美元，至 2.61 億美元。因此，我們看到這些收入從高點回落，而 Watch 的收入從年初的 3.76 億美元開始持續成長。因此，我們有一群特警貸款人在早期催收中，並且是真正的運作銀行，我們已經看到了很好的結果。布萊恩，你想補充什麼？

Yeah, I think that's helpful, Mike. You know, from a from a global perspective and we'd anticipate the cric headwind to start dissipating in 2025. You know, it'll be somewhat offset by normalized, you know, net charge off levels in the in the core portfolio. I would add one point to to Mike says if you, as you look at our charge off ratio, year-to-date through the third quarter order, it was 39 basis points on an annualized basis. I apologize. It's just in the quarter was 39 basis points annualized 27 of that came from the centric portfolio. So the core franchise charge off level is in the low 10s. And you know, we're excited about that performance.

是的，我認為這很有幫助，麥克。你知道，從全球角度來看，我們預期批評的逆風將在 2025 年開始消散。你知道，它會在某種程度上被核心投資組合中標準化的淨沖銷水準所抵消。我想補充一點，麥克說，如果你看看我們的沖銷比率，從年初至今到第三季的訂單，按年化計算，沖銷比率為 39 個基點。我道歉。僅在本季度，年化利率就為 39 個基點，其中 27 個基點來自中心投資組合。因此，核心特許經營收費水準在 10 左右。你知道，我們對這次表演感到興奮。

Okay. That's helpful Brian, to follow up and I wanted to ask about LCO.

好的。Brian，這很有幫助，我想問 LCO 的情況。

You guys have been.

你們曾經是。

Pretty deliberate.

相當故意的。

And measured kind of managing to pace. What gives you confidence that it's going to really accelerate here and just what kind of near-term visibility do you have for the quarter to 2025?

並衡量了管理節奏。是什麼讓您有信心它會真正加速？

On the commercial side, in particular, the production has been really good. The headwinds have been probably for the year about $49 million in payoffs and sponsor and probably another $97 million in centric. And the other thing is we've just added a lot of talent to our regional teams and corporate banking and they're really starting to hit the ground running. So we just feel that we can we can mid single digit and is very achievable next year and perhaps a little higher, we shall see, hopefully get some tailwinds with economic growth. And but that's, that's the reason and we've also been able to fund it. And that is, we're proud of that. And at the same time, we've had, we'll have ample liquidity to grow loans. We've paid down borrowings retired sub debt with increasing capital ratios and, and kind of supported the margin so I think the team can do it.

尤其是在商業方面，製作非常好。今年的不利因素可能是約 4,900 萬美元的回報和贊助商，以及另外 9,700 萬美元的中心支出。另一件事是，我們剛剛為我們的區域團隊和企業銀行業務增加了許多人才，他們確實開始起步。因此，我們只是覺得我們可以達到個位數，並且明年非常有可能實現，也許會更高一點，我們將看到，希望能在經濟成長中獲得一些順風車。但這就是原因，我們也能夠為其提供資金。也就是說，我們為此感到自豪。同時，我們已經擁有、也將擁有充足的流動性來增加貸款。隨著資本比率的提高，我們已經償還了借款和已退休的次級債務，並且在一定程度上支撐了利潤率，所以我認為團隊可以做到這一點。

Okay, great. I'll let someone else Pepper Jim on the margin, but thanks for the help.

好的，太好了。我會讓其他人把胡椒吉姆放在邊緣，但謝謝你的幫助。

Kelly Motta from KBW.

KBW 的凱莉·莫塔。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for the question. I was hoping to I can dig into the deposit growth. You saw this quarter. It looks like NIBs were up meaningfully, although not so on an average basis. I'm wondering if, as we're thinking about the that line, was there any sort of end of quarter volatility that we should manage, be managing here? And also any, any kind of broader comments as to whether or not we, we've seen a perhaps a trough in, in the pressure on non interest bearing accounts.

嘿，下午好。謝謝你的提問。我希望能夠深入研究存款成長情況。你看到了這個季度。看起來 NIB 出現了有意義的成長，儘管平均而言並非如此。我想知道，當我們考慮這條線時，是否存在我們應該管理的季度末波動？還有任何、任何類型的更廣泛的評論，關於我們是否已經看到無息帳戶壓力的低谷。

Yeah, we had a nice big win at the end of the quarter with a businessperson in one of our regional markets who sold the company, and we had a pretty significant inflow of about $170 million in deposits in the last week of the month. And some of that was parked in not interest bearing, Jim, what do you want to?

是的，我們在季度末取得了一場巨大的勝利，我們的一個區域市場的一位商人出售了我們的公司，並且在該月的最後一周，我們獲得了約1.7 億美元的相當可觀的存款流入。其中一些是無息的，吉姆，你想要什麼？

So, yeah, so that really helped the quarter number. So if that's what you're looking to sell, that's what you'll see. But the the other thing I just want to point out this is kind of behind the scenes in my deposit rotation comments. If I just look at the trend in nib month to month in the third quarter.

所以，是的，這確實對季度數字有所幫助。因此，如果這就是您想要出售的產品，那麼您就會看到它。但另一件事我只想指出，這是我的存款輪換評論中的幕後黑手。如果我只看第三季筆尖的逐月趨勢。

In July, there was $20 million of outflows in August, there were $2.6 million of inflows in September, $35 million of inflows. So, and those are average it does end of period. So, you know, the education seems to really slow down overall. We're really happy that we get a large deposit like that any time. But the for the rest of the bank, it seems like it's all moving in the right direction.

7月，8月流出2000萬美元，9月流入260萬美元，9月流入3500萬美元。所以，這些是期末的平均水準。所以，你知道，教育總體上似乎確實放緩了。我們很高興每次都能收到這樣大筆存款。但對於銀行的其他部門來說，一切似乎都朝著正確的方向發展。

Okay. That's, that's, yeah, absolutely. That's, that's super helpful. And then I appreciate all the color and commentary given around sort of your outlook for margin. Just wondering if, if you could expand a bit on how we should be thinking about deposit data during rate cuts. It looks like on during the tightening part of the cycle, you experience deposit data was about 50%. Wondering if you, if you could just provide some color on, on how you're, you're thinking about that on the way down at least initially.

好的。那是，那是，是的，絕對是。那是，這非常有幫助。然後，我很欣賞您對利潤前景的所有色彩和評論。只是想知道您是否可以擴展一下我們在降息期間應該如何考慮存款數據。看起來在周期的緊縮部分，您遇到的存款資料約為 50%。想知道你是否可以提供一些關於你的情況的顏色，至少在最初的過程中你會考慮到這一點。

Yeah, no ha happy to address that our deposit based assumption is generally about 25% that's just backed up by long term. Look back studies that kind of look at what the historical average has been. The number you're thinking about. There's only slight variation of the way people calculate cumulative through the cycle of data because it depends on when you start the, you know, quote unquote cycle and when you end it. Well, we were just looking at that the other day and it looked like for what I calculation I was doing internally or my team is doing internally showed that we had accumulated through the cycle beta on the deposit side of about 46%. Just starting from the right before when the fed started this rate hike cycle to that last the first rate cut in September about 46% and a cumulative and, and the odd thing about that was we try to look at the loan data over the same period and it was also about 46%. Just about what you see is like in any bank. The timing is different. So in the early stages, we're able to reprice the loans upward very quickly and then the deposit pricing caught up but it evens out over time. So in this downward cycle, we'd expect the loan deposit, I'm sorry, the loan data to hit us pretty quickly with the fall that are very low. And then, you know, deposit paid at about 25% able to kind of be price this downward to kind of make up for it.

是的，不，哈哈，我們很高興地指出，我們基於存款的假設通常約為 25%，這是有長期支持的。回顧歷史平均的研究。你正在考慮的數字。人們透過資料週期計算累積的方式只有輕微的變化，因為這取決於您何時開始引用取消引用週期以及何時結束它。好吧，前幾天我們剛剛看到了這一點，根據我在內部或我的團隊在內部所做的計算，我們在存款方面已經積累了約 46% 的周期測試版。從聯準會開始這次升息週期開始，到最後一次 9 月的首次降息，累計降息約 46%，奇怪的是，我們試圖查看同期的貸款數據也是46%左右。您在任何銀行看到的情況都差不多。時機不同。因此，在早期階段，我們能夠非常迅速地將貸款重新定價，然後存款定價趕上，但隨著時間的推移，它會趨於平衡。因此，在這個下行週期中，我們預期貸款存款，對不起，貸款數據會很快對我們造成打擊，下降幅度非常低。然後，你知道，支付大約 25% 的訂金可以降低價格來彌補這一點。

Got it, that's, that's very helpful. And then you talked about, you know, cash being elevated during three Q because and you use some of that to pay down BT P. I I apologize if you already answered this. But what are you guys doing as a more normalized level of cash as we look to just manage the size of the balance sheet?

明白了，這非常有幫助。然後你談到，你知道，現金在三個 Q 期間增加，因為你用其中的一些來償還 BT P。但是，當我們希望管理資產負債表的規模時，你們正在做什麼作為更正常化的現金水準呢？

Yeah, the normal level of cash will be just in the below $50 million. It just depends on any given day. How much we need to fund the bank. So, I think I'm not sure off the top of my head what it is right now today, but at any given day, it might be $10 million, $20 million of excess cash. You have to make sure you can balance the bank at the end of the day, but it's not going to be $400 million lying around like it was on September 30th. If you look at the balance sheet in the press release, financials that we issued, that number sticks out like a store thumb this huge increase in cash and it's not going to stay at that level long term. It's just going to be a middle amount to balance the bank.

是的，正常的現金水準將在 5000 萬美元以下。這僅取決於任何一天。我們需要向銀行提供多少資金。所以，我想我現在還不確定現在是什麼情況，但在任何一天，可能會有 1000 萬美元、2000 萬美元的多餘現金。你必須確保在一天結束時能夠平衡銀行，但不會像 9 月 30 日那樣有 4 億美元閒置。如果你看新聞稿中的資產負債表，我們發布的財務數據，這個數字就像商店的大拇指一樣突出，現金的巨大增加，而且它不會長期保持在這個水平。這只是一個中等金額來平衡銀行。

Understood. And then finally, I was hoping you could provide any update or color on the M&A environment and the pace of conversations as it pertains to deal activity.

明白了。最後，我希望您能夠提供有關併購環境以及與交易活動相關的對話節奏的任何更新或資訊。

There's been a conversation or two, nothing is materialized. And, we're very interested in M&A I think, you know, we, we do smaller as well as larger and, and if the six deals that we've done and had the privilege to do, have ranged from $55 million to $1.1 billion. So, they've been deals that we feel like we could appropriately control the risk. And, and I've also shared with you that, you know, we have a team that could scale scale and do a larger transaction. It just, it would have to be just right. And Jim always likes to share. We've, you know, we looked at well over 60 deals to do six. So we're pretty disciplined. But there are, there have been one or two things out there and I think we passed on one or two, passed on both actually into the process. So, hopefully there'll be some nice opportunities to grow our bank and contiguous markets and do strategic things and rural depositories and all the kinds of things you've heard us say before.

交談過一兩次，但沒有任何具體結果。而且，我們對併購非常感興趣，我認為，我們做的規模較小，規模也較大，如果我們已經完成並有幸進行的六筆交易，金額從 5500 萬美元到 1.1 美元不等十億。因此，我們認為這些交易是我們可以適當控制風險的。而且，我還與您分享了，您知道，我們有一個可以擴大規模並進行更大交易的團隊。只是，它必須恰到好處。吉姆總是喜歡分享。你知道，我們考察了 60 多筆交易，最終達成了 6 筆交易。所以我們非常有紀律。但確實存在一兩件事，我認為我們傳遞了一兩件事，實際上將兩者都傳遞到了流程中。因此，希望會有一些很好的機會來發展我們的銀行和鄰近市場，並開展策略性工作和農村存款機構以及您以前聽我們說​​過的所有事情。

Hey, Kelly, just to go back to the, just for what it's worth cash this morning was stood at $45 million. It's kind of a normal level for us.

嘿，凱利，回到剛才的話題，今天早上現金的價值為 4500 萬美元。這對我們來說是正常水平。

Awesome. Thank, thank you so much for the color. I will step back.

驚人的。謝謝，非常感謝你的顏色。我會退後一步。

Matthew Breese from Stephens.

史蒂芬斯的馬修·布里斯。

Good afternoon everybody. Jim, I was hoping to start, you know, you had mentioned that 50% of your loan portfolio reprices think you set off a one month so far. In the past it might have even been last quarter, you whittled that down that number to like 30% and even a piece of that was affected by the swap so that the true floating rate portion of the book I think was closer to 27% of total loans. Could you just clarify for us? And I'm sorry if it's going to put you on repeat a little bit. The the true floating rate portion of the book, if it's 50% or 27% just because it matters a lot as we head into a downward cycle.

大家下午好。吉姆，我希望開始，你知道，你曾提到你的貸款組合中 50% 的重新定價認為你到目前為止已經啟動了一個月。在過去，甚至可能是上個季度，你把這個數字削減到 30% 左右，甚至其中一部分受到掉期的影響，所以我認為這本書的真實浮動利率部分接近 27%貸款總額。您能為我們澄清一下嗎？如果這會讓你重複一些，我很抱歉。本書中真正的浮動利率部分，如果是 50% 或 27%，只是因為當我們進入下行週期時它非常重要。

Yeah, I'm so glad you asked that and gave me a chance to clarify. So I wanted to make sure I didn't speak before. About half the portfolio is variable. Half six. That's just kind of a general rule of thumb. It does vary a little bit of from time to time at the end of the third quarter, it was 50.67% was variable. Okay? So very, very close to 50%. But the part that is linked to one month over is only 33% of the total portfolio, not 50%. So the other section, the other 17% that's tied to all kinds of things along the yield curve. So it's variable over time. I'd be like a mortgage rate with a, you know, 51 arm or 71 arm that's going to be replaced over time. So it's a variable but it's not going directly to. So that's only 33%. And even those, most of all, it's so far it's prime, there's still one or two Bisbee loans left that we're phasing out because that's going away, but it's a 32%. Is, is all the, the short stuff. Thank you for letting me clarify that.

是的，我很高興你問這個問題並給了我澄清的機會。所以我想確保我之前沒有說話。大約一半的投資組合是可變的。六點半。這只是一般的經驗法則。第三季末的情況確實有所變化，為 50.67%。好的？非常非常接近 50%。但與一個月以上掛鉤的部分僅佔總投資組合的33%，而非50%。所以另一部分，另外 17%，與殖利率曲線上的各種事物有關。所以它會隨著時間的推移而改變。我希望抵押貸款利率為 51 或 71 臂，隨著時間的推移會被替換。所以它是一個變量，但它不會直接變化。所以只有 33%。即便如此，最重要的是，到目前為止，它還處於黃金期，仍然剩下一兩筆 Bisbee 貸款，我們正在逐步淘汰，因為這種貸款正在消失，但它是 32%。是，是所有，簡短的東西。謝謝你讓我澄清這一點。

And I would assume as well as the swaps expire, it won't be 27%. It'll actually be truly more like 30% - sounds like below 30% range. That's accurate as well.

我認為，即使掉期到期，也不會是 27%。實際上，它實際上更像是 30%——聽起來低於 30% 的範圍。這也是準確的。

Well, the numbers I was giving you was irrespective of swap. I didn't adjust the number I was giving you to say that some of that portion was swapped in a fixed rate. So those are just the raw underlying portfolio numbers I was giving you.

好吧，我給你的數字與交換無關。我沒有調整我給你的數字，而是說其中一些部分是以固定匯率交換的。這些只是我給你的原始基礎投資組合數據。

Okay.

好的。

It'll have the same setting that you're talking about. It'll, it'll, it'll take away these, these low rate pre C six spots that we've got on the books and let this stuff float again and it'll start floating upward and what the cash flow we receive will be the higher floating rate.

它將具有與您所說的相同的設定。它會，它會，它會帶走我們賬簿上的這些低利率前 C 六個點，讓這些東西再次浮動，它會開始向上浮動，我們收到的現金流量是多少將是較高的浮動利率。

Okay.

好的。

Setting the, true floating rate stuff aside.

把真正的浮動利率的東西放在一邊。

Could you help us a little bit, understand what the maturity profile is? Like for 1/6 rate portion of the book. What either duration or how much you expect it to kind of come up to maturity of next year.

您能幫我們了解一下成熟度概況嗎？就像本書的 1/6 比例部分。持續時間是多少，或您期望明年到期的金額是多少。

Yeah, I don't you know, I I don't have it broken down by like type of loan. The overall loan portfolio duration is only 2.76 years, but that reflects the, you know, that portion of the portfolio that 32% linked to the short end of the curve. The other part that's variable and then the fixed rate stuff as well.

是的，我不知道，我沒有按類似類型的貸款進行細分。整個貸款組合的期限僅為 2.76 年，但這反映了投資組合中 32% 與曲線短端相關的部分。另一部分是可變的，然後是固定利率的東西。

It was it was it conceptually if this helps you, we think about the concept of what we call yield curve diversity and not really term, but something we talk about. So we have things that are priced at the long end of the curve, things like fixed rate mortgages up on the books. But you also you also have things that are very short of the curve. What you have in the middle of the curve are things like indirect auto. So a billion dollar portfolio over a billion that the prices of the 2.5 year part of the curve and then the equipment finance portfolio building, those are almost all five year loans that don't really pay at all.

從概念上講，如果這對您有幫助的話，我們會考慮所謂的殖利率曲線多樣性的概念，而不是真正的術語，而是我們談論的東西。因此，我們有一些在曲線長端定價的東西，例如帳面上的固定利率抵押貸款。但你也有一些非常短的事情。曲線中間有諸如間接自動之類的東西。因此，10 億美元的投資組合超過 10 億美元，即曲線 2.5 年期部分的價格，然後是設備融資投資組合的建設，這些幾乎都是五年期貸款，根本無法真正支付。

You know, we, we we call sometimes leasing but 85% of those are loans, whether the loans or leases, they have almost almost a perfect five year duration that doesn't prepa so that kind of builds that duration overall in case it's kind of these those repricing characteristics that smooth out the repricing of our portfolio over time. But the total duration on loans 2.76 years on securities is 4.35 years.

你知道，我們，我們有時稱之為租賃，但其中85% 是貸款，無論是貸款還是租賃，它們幾乎有一個完美的五年期限，沒有準備好，所以這種構建總體期限的情況，以防萬一這些重新定價特徵可以隨著時間的推移平滑我們投資組合的重新定價。但證券貸款的總期限為 2.76 年，為 4.35 年。

The total assets going to be yeah, it's 2.79 years on total assets. Hope that helps.

總資產是的，總資產為 2.79 年。希望有幫助。

Very helpful and, and just one more on this topic and apologies for laboring the point. But you'd also mentioned that there's a, a still a positive repricing GAAP on the fifth rate book, but I think 170 basis points. Do you mind providing for us? What those, what the before and after those numbers are, what is it repricing to and from?

非常有幫助，並且只是關於這個主題的另一篇文章，並對這一點的闡述表示歉意。但你也提到，第五檔書籍的重新定價 GAAP 仍然是正面的，但我認為是 170 個基點。你介意供養我們嗎？這些數字是什麼，這些數字之前和之後是什麼，重新定價的依據又是什麼？

Yeah, give me I might take a second to find but I have it here.

是的，給我，我可能需要一點時間才能找到，但我在這裡有。

And it'll take, it'll take me a second, go ahead and ask you another question.

我需要一點時間，繼續問你另一個問題。

Yeah. While you're looking through your papers? Mike just one for you, you know, we we've seen a little bit of a pickup here in, in NPAS.

是的。當你翻閱你的文件？麥克只是給你一個，你知道，我們在 NPAS 中看到了一些回升。

It sounds like some of it is is your own, some of it's concentric. Where would you be surprised to see MP A client to? I mean, are we near the top in your view or you expecting a little bit more of the quote and quote normalization and maybe some color on how you expect charge us to behave as well.

聽起來有些是你自己的，有些是同心的。如果您看到 MP A 客戶去哪裡，您會感到驚訝嗎？我的意思是，在您看來，我們是否接近頂部，或者您期望更多的報價和報價標準化，也許還有一些關於您期望向我們收費的行為方式的顏色。

Yeah, I do. I think we're, I think we're near the peak. It could pick up a little bit but I think it would come down in the ensuing quarters. We have about a third of that, NPL and NP A stack is centric. We feel like we have good line of sight on those credits. We're not being surprised as much anymore and they're well marked as Brian outlined in. So I think hopefully that's a peak in terms of charge offs. I think Brian shared as well our charge off figure this past quarter versus what it would be normalized. That would be, in the low team.

是的，我願意。我認為我們已經接近頂峰了。它可能會有所回升，但我認為在接下來的幾個季度中它會下降。我們大約有三分之一，NPL 和 NP A 堆疊是中心。我們覺得我們對這些積分有很好的視野。我們不再感到驚訝了，而且正如布萊恩在中概述的那樣，它們被很好地標記了。所以我認為這有望成為沖銷的高峰。我認為布萊恩也分享了我們上個季度的費用與正常化的費用相比。那就是，在低位球隊中。

And, that feels right to us longer term. And, I hope that's helpful.

而且，從長遠來看，這對我們來說是正確的。而且，我希望這有幫助。

It's, it's helpful to me because it gave me some time to find the answer to the previous.

它對我很有幫助，因為它給了我一些時間來找到前一個問題的答案。

So, so, going back to what you're asking, I think what you're asking is the replacement yields on fixed rate loans. And I talked about 172 basis points. What are the underlying numbers?

所以，回到你所問的問題，我認為你所問的是固定利率貸款的替代收益率。我談到了 172 個基點。底層數字是多少？

And, here they are, for, for better or worse in the third quarter, we originated $290 million of fixed rate loans at 7.24%.

而且，無論好壞，我們在第三季發放了 2.9 億美元的固定利率貸款，利率為 7.24%。

And, but $265 million rand off at 5.52%. So, the nice thing about that is rates fall over 25 base points. Hopefully your replacement yields on those are 150 basis points and another 25 basis points cut replacement, you still 125 basis points and you still get a lift even in a following rate environment. That's how we think about it.

但 2.65 億美元的報酬率為 5.52%。因此，好處是利率下降了 25 個基點以上。希望你的替代收益率是 150 個基點，另外 25 個基點削減替代率，你仍然是 125 個基點，即使在以下利率環境下，你仍然可以獲得提升。我們就是這麼想的。

Appreciate that. Wouldn't that have a bit of a dampening effect on the loan data?

很欣賞這一點。這不會對貸款數據產生一點抑製作用嗎？

It just feels like that's a, that's a steep GAAP and it's more than, you know, it's more than half the book. So I'm just curious, would that wouldn't that dampen the 45% expected loan beta over time? And that's my last question. Thank you.

感覺就像這是一個陡峭的公認會計準則，它比這本書的一半還要多。所以我只是好奇，隨著時間的推移，這不會削弱 45% 的預期貸款貝塔值嗎？這是我的最後一個問題。謝謝。

Yeah, I think it's baked in there. I, I just think about whether it dampens it or and to what extent when we, when we think about our loan be for next year, it's not that far off our deposit beta. I mean, just thinking about it depends, it depends a little bit on when you start the following cycle. You start in September, just look at the math, the loan be for next year. One actually was a little less than that. It's like 10 to 15% like 10 to 15% next year. The deposit data, it's like 25%. So, my other point by the way was just, you know, over time, you go through the whole cycle. So, whenever this cycle ends three years from now, we tend to even out over time.

是的，我想它已經在那裡烤了。我，我只是想它是否會抑制它，或者當我們考慮明年的貸款時，它會在多大程度上抑制我們的存款貝塔值。我的意思是，只要考慮一下這取決於，這在一定程度上取決於你何時開始下一個週期。你從九月開始，只要看看數學，明年的貸款就可以了。一個實際上比那少一點。明年大概是 10% 到 15%，大概是 10% 到 15%。存款數據，大概是25%。所以，順便說一句，我的另一點是，你知道，隨著時間的推移，你會經歷整個週期。因此，每當這個週期三年後結束時，我們往往會隨著時間的推移而趨於平衡。

Frank Schiraldi from Piper Sandler.

派珀桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 的弗蘭克席拉爾迪 (Frank Schiraldi)。

Hey guys, good afternoon.

嘿夥計們，下午好。

It is just question on the large deposit that came in at the end or near the end of the quarter.

這只是關於季度末或接近季度末收到的大額存款的問題。

Last week of the quarter. So that, or would that tend to create some volatility in the fourth quarter? Just curious if you expect some of that to flow back out or, or perhaps even seen some of that already given we're at the end of October here.

本季的最後一周。那麼，這是否會在第四季造成一些波動？只是好奇你是否期望其中一些會流出，或者甚至可能看到其中的一些，因為我們已經在十月底了。

Yeah, I think our best line of sight right now is that we'll have a good portion of that that might flow out in the first quarter of next year.

是的，我認為我們現在最好的視線是，我們將在明年第一季流出其中的很大一部分。

Got you. We'll do everything we can to hold on to it and we'll take it while we can get it.

明白你了。我們將盡一切努力保住它，並在我們能得到它的時候抓住它。

Sure.

當然。

And then just a follow up on, on the trends and deposit cost, Jim, I thought you had mentioned that you thought we'd see and, and maybe I'm wrong, but I thought we'd see another quarter of of of increased deposit costs perhaps at a lower level. But first of all, you know, is that what you said? And then secondly, is it possible just given 50 basis points we've seen here already in, in, September in terms of cuts that, you know, maybe this is an inflection point for deposits in, in the third quarter here?

然後是關於趨勢和存款成本的後續行動，吉姆，我想你已經提到你認為我們會看到，也許我錯了，但我認為我們會看到另外四分之一的存款成本可能會以較低水平增加。但首先，你知道，這是你說的嗎？其次，鑑於我們在 9 月已經看到的 50 個基點的削減，是否有可能，你知道，這也許是第三季存款的拐點？

Well, on the last point, it felt like it, it felt like the 50 basis points cut in September felt like it was reflected in the market. We could just see the market competition dissipate and the deposit movements kind of change. And it feels like everyone's got the message that rates are falling. So it's much easier to pass along falling deposit rates and still grow deposits at the same time. So, that did seem to be, it felt like a shift in September to the last part of your question. On the first part of your question, I'm not sure. I said, but you, you said I I hope I didn't on the, if I, if I did let me clarify a little bit, I do think that that rate of the rate of increase in the cost of deposits was moving downward over the course of the year. That's the point I was trying to make them prepare market. So it was up in the first quarter, was up, less in the second quarter, was up less than the third quarter by only eight basis points. We actually think it should come down a little bit in the fourth quarter. It's just a projection. So I didn't need to say that. I think it'll increase. I talk about the trend of increases coming down.

嗯，最後一點，感覺是這樣，感覺 9 月降息 50 個基點感覺已經反映在市場上了。我們可以看到市場競爭消散，存款變動發生變化。感覺每個人都得到了利率正在下降的訊息。因此，在傳遞存款利率下降的同時仍然增加存款要容易得多。所以，這似乎確實是，感覺像是在九月轉移到了你問題的最後一部分。關於你問題的第一部分，我不確定。我說，但是你，你說我希望我沒有，如果我，如果我確實讓我澄清一點，我確實認為存款成本增長率正在向下移動這一年的歷程。這就是我試圖讓他們做好市場準備的重點。所以第一季上漲了，第二季漲了，比第三季只漲了8個基點。實際上我們認為第四季應該會有所下降。這只是一個投影。所以我不需要這麼說。我認為它會增加。我談論的是成長下降的趨勢。

We think we might turn the quarter the fourth quarter. It's II I will catch that with a huge train of salt. Predicting deposit cost and deposit rate moves have been the hardest thing for this whole cycle. So, I wouldn't put too much stock in that, but we don't, we do not predict or anyone on internal forecast that the cost of deposits will continue to increase next quarter should plateau.

我們認為我們可能會將季度轉向第四季。這是II，我會用一大串鹽來捕捉它。預測存款成本和存款利率變動是整個週期中最困難的事情。因此，我不會對此抱有太多信心，但我們不這樣做，我們不預測或內部任何人預測存款成本將在下個季度繼續增加，並趨於穩定。

Okay. So, so said another way is that, is that maybe the thinking that the trough is in the fourth quarter here?

好的。那麼，換句話說，這可能是第四季出現低潮的想法嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. And, and then, and then just lastly, I mean, I think you're just given the the numbers you gave around the margin by the end of next year based on a couple of scenarios, seems like that still kind of translates to about five basis points in in March of compression for a given 25 basis point cut. And I think you, you maybe even said that in the past. So I just wanted to double check if that's kind of still a reasonable guidepost for, for a given 25 basis points.

好的。然後，最後，我的意思是，我認為你只是根據幾種情況給出了明年年底前給出的數字，似乎仍然可以翻譯為大約3 月份降息 25 個基點，壓縮了 5 個基點。我想你過去可能也這麼說過。因此，我只是想仔細檢查一下，對於給定的 25 個基點，這是否仍然是一個合理的指導方針。

Yeah, that's kind of our rule of thumb and the way I thought about that in particular over the last couple of days was in our last forecast. We're thinking, carrying on at the stable of these, the rates. And now we have a new forecast that's, you know, 30 its going to be 40 to 50 basis points lower. And so, it's 10 basis points lower than it was the last rate forecast. So, for another 50 basis points of cuts to get down 10 basis points, and that's your 25 basis points per cut. Of course, the way it all plays itself out with those headwinds and tailings I was talking about is that you don't just have a pure, five base point per 25 basis points cut because if you go from 550 to 3% and you're down 250 basis points and rates' a lot, that's a lot of cuts and I wouldn't take that number by five and things like that into the name, the tail winds. I'll set a lot of that. That's what I was trying to give the model, the forecast numbers from our model.

是的，這就是我們的經驗法則，我對這一點的思考方式，特別是在過去幾天，就是我們上次的預測。我們正在考慮，繼續保持這些穩定的利率。現在我們有一個新的預測，你知道，30 將會降低 40 到 50 個基點。因此，它比上次的利率預測低了 10 個基點。因此，如果再降息 50 個基點，則降息 10 個基點，即每次降息 25 個基點。當然，這一切與我所說的逆風和尾隨一起發揮作用的方式是，你不僅僅有一個純粹的，每 25 個基點削減 5 個基點，因為如果你從 550% 降到 3%，那麼你'下調250個基點和利率」很多，這是很多削減，我不會把這個數字減少5個之類的名字，順風。我會設定很多。這就是我試圖為模型提供的內容，也就是我們模型的預測數字。

No, it's, it's.

不，是，是。

Appreciated. Okay, great. Thanks for the color.

讚賞。好的，太好了。謝謝你的顏色。

Manuel Navas from DA Davidson.

DA Davidson 的曼努埃爾·納瓦斯。

Hey, starting on the, the fees for, fourth quarter. That range is, it, it's a little wider $24million to $22 million if I got it right. Can you just talk about what gets you to the higher end? Is it like SB A sales and then do you think, talk about fees going forward into next year? If rates come down, mortgage should pick up just kind of thoughts on, on, on that, benefit as well. On the fee side.

嘿，從第四季的費用開始。如果我沒猜錯的話，這個範圍是 2400 萬美元到 2200 萬美元。您能談談是什麼讓您達到了更高的境界嗎？是不是像 SB A 銷售一樣，然後您認為談論明年的費用嗎？如果利率下降，抵押貸款也應該會帶來收益。在收費方面。

I'll give you some broad strokes and then Jim can fill in.

我會給你一些大概的描述，然後吉姆可以補充。

But we do think rates come down that will help all across the board with revenue, and volume on the commercial lending side and the consumer side as well as our few businesses. We really built pretty formidable SB a offering and continue. We'll continue to invest there. Our mortgage banking could snap back pretty nicely. We have good share, good deposits in our core markets that could turn into refis and other things. So we, we do feel that could be a tail wind. Do you have other guidance you would provide?

但我們確實認為利率下降將有助於全面增加商業貸款方面、消費者方面以及我們為數不多的企業的收入和數量。我們確實建立了相當強大的 SB 產品並繼續。我們將繼續在那裡投資。我們的抵押貸款銀行業務可能會很好地恢復。我們在核心市場擁有良好的份額和良好的存款，可以轉化為再融資和其他東西。所以我們確實覺得這可能是順風。您還有其他指導嗎？

Yeah, we have C&C Engines based into the bank. That kind of hung along and then some of them done really nicely when we don't talk about a lot of insurance, but that keeps coming along Addington fee. We have our wealth division which has done really well this year. They think about growth for next year, but I think you're hitting on it in a changing rate environment. You hope that you're able to do more mortgage refine and then more SBA I keep that, that just grow that business as well. The mortgage we a little bit is dependent on just the short term rates though. We got really hopeful that we choose to refi business in that middle part of the curve went up again a little bit and you know, so the, we just want to, don't want to get too excited just because the fed funds rate comes down doesn't mean mortgage rates come down. You get a lot of refi business. So we gotta take that into account.

是的，我們銀行有 C&C 引擎。這種情況一直存在，當我們不談論很多保險時，其中一些做得非常好，但這一直伴隨著阿丁頓費用。我們的財富部門今年表現非常好。他們考慮明年的成長，但我認為你是在不斷變化的利率環境中實現這一目標的。你希望你能夠進行更多的抵押貸款細化，然後我保留更多的 SBA，這樣也能發展該業務。不過，我們的房貸有點依賴短期利率。我們非常希望我們選擇再融資業務，曲線的中間部分再次上升一點，所以，我們只是想，不想僅僅因為聯邦基金利率來了就太興奮下降並不意味著抵押貸款利率下降。你會得到很多改裝業務。所以我們必須考慮到這一點。

Yeah, the wealth management piece provided $500,000 quarter over quarter of offset to the $3 million headwind with Durban. That business continues to mature. We also have treasury management would just build a really nice offering on the back of the corporate bank. We continue to get service charge income from there and just do a nice job for our commercial clients. We're just trying to move the bank into the future and make sure as we get the $15 billion and higher we're more commercially oriented. We've built mature businesses. We're doing a better job of cross selling through the regional model. So there's real emphasis on relationship banking c and I small business based. Getting the deposits we've already always been pretty good at but also cross selling the relationship capabilities of our company.

是的，財富管理業務每季提供了 50 萬美元的資金，抵消了德班 300 萬美元的逆風。該業務不斷成熟。我們還有資金管理部門，他們會在企業銀行的支持下打造一個非常好的產品。我們繼續從那裡獲得服務費收入，並為我們的商業客戶做得很好。我們只是試圖讓銀行走向未來，並確保當我們獲得 150 億美元及更多資金時，我們會更加商業化。我們已經建立了成熟的業務。我們透過區域模式在交叉銷售方面做得更好。因此，真正強調的是基於小型企業的關係銀行業務。我們一直很擅長獲得存款，但也交叉銷售我們公司的關係能力。

And, and Manuel just for your modeling purposes that, that wide range kind of brackets, the number that we were thinking of $5 million on either side. That's why it is what it is.

而且，曼努埃爾只是為了您的建模目的，那種廣泛的括號，我們認為兩邊都是 500 萬美元的數字。這就是為什麼它是這樣的。

That, that's, that's helpful. Just on the swap benefit is the baseline scenario. You're, three, you know, getting fed funds to 300 basis points by year end 2025.

那，那，那很有幫助。就互換收益而言，這是基準情境。你們知道，到 2025 年底，聯邦基金利率將達到 300 個基點。

Yeah, I think the swap benefit you'll see in the early deck, right, of eight basis points that I think is based on the previous rate forecast, which had fed funds at 3.29 at the end of 2025.

是的，我認為你會在早期的甲板上看到掉期收益，右，我認為這是基於先前的利率預測，即 2025 年底聯邦基金利率為 3.29。

So it might be, you know, so maybe it's 7 basis points that rates go to 2.95. Like our revised forecast.

所以，你知道，利率可能會上升 7 個基點至 2.95。就像我們修改後的預測一樣。

if by the end of next year.

如果到明年年底。

The yield curve is a little steeper could, how, how would impact kind of your, your, your name? Thoughts of that, that is a very positive scenario. That what would, what could be that upside for a second and a half of next year into 2026? We talk about that all the time. Yeah, I'm sorry to cut you off. Go ahead. No, no, go ahead. I just, I just want to put a caveat to it. I know it's a very positive scenario but like what, what, what could be the upside of that type of scenario for you?

殖利率曲線有點陡峭，會如何影響你、你、你的名字？想想看，這是一個非常正面的場景。從明年到 2026 年，這半年的上行空間會是什麼？我們一直在談論這個。是的，很抱歉打斷你。前進。不，不，繼續吧。我只是，我只是想對此提出警告。我知道這是一個非常正面的場景，但是這種場景對你來說有什麼好處？

Yeah, in the near term, we think about, you know, changes and you know, the cost of funds as we try to grow the deposit book and the yields and new ones come on and replace these, all that stuff. And long term we think as bankers positively positive to the yield curve, it's an environment where we can make some money.

是的，在短期內，我們會考慮，你知道，變化，你知道，當我們試圖增加存款簿和收益率時，資金成本就會出現，新的收益率會出現並取代這些，所有這些東西。從長遠來看，我們認為銀行家對殖利率曲線持正面態度，這是一個我們可以賺錢的環境。

I'm just smiling at him.

我只是對他微笑。

because he just gave me four budget passes.

因為他剛剛給了我四張預算通行證。

On the four scenarios for 2025 too. I think it's about nine or 9¢.

2025 年的四種情境也是如此。我想大約是九或九美分。

Yeah.

是的。

Long term apos flow is great for banks. So that's, that's our story and we're sticking to it.

長期的 apo 流量對銀行非常有利。這就是我們的故事，我們將堅持下去。

Okay. And then my last question is deposit growth has been really strong. We talked about that large deposit. What what's kind of the appetite from here? With that marginal cost of 3.20 for new deposits? Is it a loan to deposit ratio target? Is it pre funding loan growth next year? What, what's kind of the appetite on deposit growth side?

好的。我的最後一個問題是存款成長非常強勁。我們談到了那筆大額存款。這裡的胃口怎麼樣？新存款的邊際成本為 3.20？是貸存比目標嗎？是為明年的貸款成長預籌資金嗎？那麼，存款成長方面的胃口如何？

The appetite deposit growth side is for I'll tell you exactly how we think about this internally. We think about a smooth steady glide path and the phrase glide path keeps coming up again and again, a smooth steady glide path and deposit growth. So for example, this last quarter, if you say, hey, loans were not growing that fast, we could have taken our foot off the gas in terms of deposit growth. We don't want to do that. We want to keep growing it 3% per quarter, which we should do a 3.2% average owner's average in the third quarter. We want to keep that going in the fourth quarter. The point is we want to bring that loan to deposit ratio down and give yourself liquidity for loan growth going forward. And so in terms of the real dynamic that you're getting at, it's really driven the desire to grow the bank on the asset side and just make sure that you fund it on the liability side in any given period. Those may not match but long term, that's what we want to do. The loan deposit is down to 92.5%. We got a long way to go before it gets over 100%.

存款成長方面的偏好是為了我會告訴你我們內部是如何看待這個問題的。我們考慮的是平滑穩定的下滑路徑，「下滑路徑」這個詞不斷出現，即平滑穩定的下滑路徑和存款成長。例如，在上個季度，如果你說，嘿，貸款成長速度沒有那麼快，我們本可以在存款成長方面放鬆警惕。我們不想這樣做。我們希望每季保持 3% 的成長，第三季業主平均成長率應為 3.2%。我們希望在第四季度繼續保持這種勢頭。關鍵是我們希望降低貸存比，為未來的貸款成長提供流動性。因此，就您所了解的實際動態而言，它確實推動了銀行在資產方面發展的願望，並確保在任何特定時期內為負債提供資金。這些可能不匹配，但從長遠來看，這就是我們想要做的。貸款押金降至92.5%。距離超過 100%，我們還有很長的路要走。

So, we feel like we've got, we got the liquidity to grow. Mike?

所以，我們覺得我們已經擁有了流動性來成長。麥克風？

Mike as our bank President, Janeen likes to say we are relentless around deposits. Nontop Jane, anything you want to add, you're the, you're the impetus behind our great core depository.

麥克（Mike）身為我們的銀行行長，賈寧（Janeen）喜歡說我們對存款毫不留情。Nontop Jane，您想添加的任何內容，您就是我們偉大的核心儲存庫背後的推動力。

Only that, you know, there's really two kinds of deposits. There's the the transaction accounts that represent new, new households, whether commercial or consumer and then there's the time and the money market stuff that has the volatility of exception pricing and goes up and down with rates and we're always in the business to grow the transaction accounts and transaction households as rapidly and as aggressively as we can.

只是，你知道，存款其實有兩種。有代表新的、新的家庭的交易帳戶，無論是商業還是消費者，還有時間和貨幣市場的東西，它們具有例外定價的波動性，並隨著利率的上升和下降而變化，我們始終致力於於業務成長盡可能快速、積極地清理交易帳戶和交易家庭。

There's your answer.

這就是你的答案。

That helps. Thank you. I'll step back into the queue.

這有幫助。謝謝。我將回到隊列中。

Daniel Cardenas from Janney Montgomery Scott.

詹妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的丹尼爾·卡德納斯。

Hey guys, good afternoon.

嘿夥計們，下午好。

Good afternoon. And just a quick question on the, the size of your participation portfolio. How, how big is that? And are you, are there any other loans within that portfolio that you're watching? Given the migration of one larger credit into NPL Status?

午安.關於您的參與投資組合的規模，這是一個簡單的問題。怎麼樣，有多大？您正在關注該投資組合中是否還有其他貸款？鑑於一項較大的信貸已轉入不良貸款狀態？

Yeah, I'll take that. You know, we, we've actually really shrunk the portfolio over time as we focused on the credit risk appetite. That, that shared national credit book is just over $115 million today and only 10 relationships. So it's really not a factor as we look at it. You know, the, the one commercial real estate credit that moved it on performing was, you know, obviously in that shared national portfolio but very much not a focus and it's you know, manageable at 10 relationships.

是的，我會接受的。你知道，隨著時間的推移，我們實際上已經縮小了投資組合，因為我們專注於信用風險偏好。如今，共享的國家信用帳簿剛剛超過 1.15 億美元，而且只有 10 個關係。所以從我們的角度來看，這確實不是一個因素。你知道，推動其表現的商業房地產信貸顯然是在共享的國家投資組合中，但不是一個焦點，而且你知道，可以在 10 個關係中進行管理。

Okay. Now, now was it there the reason for the for the nonperforming move in that, in that specific loan? Was it related to just that management of the, of the facility or, or lack of tenants filling up the space? Can.

好的。現在，那筆特定貸款中的不良舉動是否有原因？這僅僅與設施的管理有關，或與空間缺乏租戶有關？能。

You give us a little color on that.

你給了我們一點顏色。

That more or more? So, the latter, the, the construction was a rehabilitation that started right before COVID they experienced COVID delays as well as some significant construction cost increases over the period of time. That that pushed them to the higher end of their budget. Since then, the rehabilitation has been completed. But the tenancy is not, you know, met expectation. It is a mixed use, it's not your typical office, there's a grocery space, there's a call center, a 911 call center and some other storage and office. You know, they have some prospective tenants, but we're still working through a longer term road and stability.

是多了還是多了？因此，後者的建設是在新冠疫情爆發之前就開始的一項修復工作，他們經歷了新冠疫情造成的延誤以及一段時間內建築成本的顯著增加。這將他們推向了預算的高端。自此，修復工作已經完成。但你知道，租賃並沒有達到預期。這是一個混合用途，不是典型的辦公室，有一個雜貨店、一個呼叫中心、一個 911 呼叫中心和一些其他儲存和辦公室。你知道，他們有一些潛在的租戶，但我們仍在努力尋求長期穩定的道路。

Alright. Now, was that located in the central Business district?

好吧。那麼，它位於中央商務區嗎？

Just outside, still in Allegheny County, but you know, not in the downtown district.

就在外面，仍在阿勒格尼縣，但你知道，不在市中心區。

Okay, I appreciate that. All my other questions have been asked and answered. Thanks Guys.

好的，我很欣賞。我的所有其他問題都已被提出並得到解答。謝謝你們。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mike price for some final closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在，我將把電話轉回給麥克·普萊斯，讓他做最後的總結演講。

Just appreciate the questions and your engagement with us. We're excited about the future of our company. We feel like we're building good momentum and acquiring talent in our six regions and our regional Presidents are moving the bank forward positively. Thank you for your time today.

感謝您提出的問題以及您與我們的互動。我們對公司的未來感到興奮。我們覺得我們正在六個地區建立良好的勢頭並吸引人才，我們的地區行長正在積極推動銀行向前發展。感謝您今天抽出時間。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。