First Commonwealth Financial Corp (FCF) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I would like to welcome everyone to the First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Mr. Ryan Thomas, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我是布倫特，歡迎大家參加第一聯邦金融公司 2023 年第三季獲利結果發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在我很高興將今天的電話轉給財務和投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Thomas 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's third quarter financial results. Participating on today's call will be Mike Price, President and CEO; Jim Reske, Chief Financial Officer; Jane Grebenc, Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer; and Brian Karrip, our Chief Credit Officer.

謝謝布倫特，大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們討論第一聯邦金融公司第三季的財務表現。總裁兼執行長 Mike Price 將參加今天的電話會議；吉姆‧雷斯克，財務長； Jane Grebenc，銀行行長兼首席營收長；以及我們的首席信貸官 Brian Karrip。

As a reminder, a copy of yesterday's earnings release can be accessed by logging on to fcbanking.com and selecting the Investor Relations link at the top of the page. We've also included a slide presentation on our Investor Relations website with supplemental financial information that will be referenced during today's call.

提醒一下，可以透過登入 fcbanking.com 並選擇頁面頂部的投資者關係連結來存取昨天的收益發布副本。我們還在投資者關係網站上提供了幻燈片演示，其中包含補充財務信息，這些信息將在今天的電話會議中引用。

Before we begin, I need to caution listeners that this call will contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to the forward-looking statements disclaimer on Page 3 of the slide presentation for a description of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我需要提醒聽眾，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱投影片簡報第 3 頁的前瞻性聲明免責聲明，以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中反映的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性的描述。

Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of today's slide presentation.

今天的電話會議還將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則財務指標應被視為我們根據公認會計原則編製的報告結果的補充，而不是替代。這些措施的協調可以在今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

這樣，我會將電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Ryan, and good afternoon, everyone. For the third quarter of 2023, we are pleased to report core net income of $39.6 million, which translates to $0.39 of earnings per share, an ROA of 1.38% and an efficiency ratio of 53.42%. The NIM compressed 9 basis points quarter-to-quarter to 3.76%. The rate of deposit cost increases is slowing, and we believe that the NIM will stabilize going into the end of the year and continue to hold up in 2024.

謝謝瑞安，大家下午好。我們很高興地報告 2023 年第三季的核心淨利潤為 3,960 萬美元，相當於每股收益 0.39 美元，ROA 為 1.38%，效率率為 53.42%。淨利差較上季壓縮 9 個基點至 3.76%。存款成本上漲速度正在放緩，我們認為淨利差將在年底趨於穩定，並在 2024 年繼續保持強勁。

In a higher-for-longer environment, we believe that improvement in loan yields would likely outstrip growth in deposit cost. Operating expenses were up $1 million from the prior quarter, driven by costs associated with debit cards. Basically, we had a onetime recognition of $900,000 in losses identified as part of a new automated system for processing debit card disputes.

在長期較高的環境下，我們認為貸款收益率的改善可能會超過存款成本的成長。由於借記卡相關成本的推動，營運費用比上一季增加了 100 萬美元。基本上，我們一次性確認了 90 萬美元的損失，該損失被確定為處理借記卡糾紛的新自動化系統的一部分。

In addition, we had a $600,000 increase in FDIC insurance compared to last quarter due to the acquisition of Centric and the associated deposit balances. This was somewhat offset by $1.1 million in decreases in salaries and benefits due in part to lower hospitalization expenses.

此外，由於收購 Centric 和相關存款餘額，我們的 FDIC 保險與上季相比增加了 60 萬美元。這在一定程度上被工資和福利減少 110 萬美元所抵消，部分原因是住院費用減少。

Total loans grew some $102 million in the quarter or 4.6% annualized. Our Northern Ohio and Pittsburgh regions led the way geographically. From a line of business perspective, commercial banking and equipment finance were the key categories driving growth. We've metered loan growth commensurate with deposit growth each of the last 3 quarters. We have also strategically exited some non-relationship borrowers. End-of-period deposits grew $94.8 million or 4.2% annualized in the third quarter, which is just short of the loan growth in the quarter. Average deposits increased by 2.1% from last quarter.

本季貸款總額成長約 1.02 億美元，年化成長 4.6%。我們的俄亥俄州北部和匹茲堡地區在地理上處於領先地位。從業務領域來看，商業銀行和設備金融是成長的重點領域。過去三個季度，我們每季的貸款成長都與存款成長相符。我們也策略性地退出了一些非關係借款人。第三季期末存款成長 9,480 萬美元，年化成長率為 4.2%，略低於本季的貸款成長。平均存款較上季成長2.1%。

Strong regional contributors included Central Ohio and Community PA. This led to the loan-to-deposit ratio rising slightly, from 96.4% to 96.7% in the quarter. We ended the quarter with solid credit metrics. Total delinquency was 25 basis points and nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans were flat at 54 basis points. Reserve coverage was a healthy 280%. Criticized loans and classified loans both improved. Net charge-offs annualized as a percentage of average loans were 4 point -- $4 million or 18 basis points, which -- of which approximately $1.2 million was related to the Centric acquisition.

強大的區域貢獻者包括俄亥俄州中部和社區 PA。這導致存貸比小幅上升，從本季的96.4%上升至96.7%。我們以可靠的信用指標結束了本季。總拖欠率為 25 個基點，不良貸款佔貸款總額的百分比持平於 54 個基點。儲備覆蓋率為健康的 280%。不良貸款和分類貸款均有所改善。年化淨沖銷佔平均貸款的百分比為 4 個百分點，即 400 萬美元或 18 個基點，其中約 120 萬美元與 Centric 收購有關。

Provision expense for the third quarter totaled $5.9 million, driven by loan growth, and an additional $4.1 million in specific reserves, reflecting an updated appraisal on a nonaccrual commercial loan. The allowance for credit losses at quarter end totaled $134.3 million, and the allowance as a percentage of loans was a healthy 1.51%, which screens well, we believe, relative to our peers.

在貸款成長的推動下，第三季撥備支出總計 590 萬美元，另外還有 410 萬美元的特定準備金，反映了對非應計商業貸款的最新評估。季度末的信貸損失準備金總額為 1.343 億美元，準備金佔貸款的比例為 1.51%，我們認為，相對於同業而言，這一比例很好。

On the digital front, adoption of Credit Score Manager, a credit score manager tool, and online banking has grown faster than expectations since launched in late April. We now have 30,000 users taking advantage of this robust financial wellness tool we believe is a best-in-class solution.

在數位方面，自 4 月底推出以來，信用評分管理器（信用評分管理器工具）和線上銀行的採用成長速度快於預期。現在，我們有 30,000 名用戶正在利用這項強大的財務健康工具，我們認為這是一流的解決方案。

The focus on our digital account openings has yielded expected growth so far in 2023, especially for checking accounts, with an increase of over 190% in openings compared to the same period last year. We are now opening approximately 1 of every 5 accounts via the digital channel versus in person.

到目前為止，我們對數位帳戶開戶的關注已實現了 2023 年的預期成長，尤其是支票帳戶，與去年同期相比，開戶數量增加了 190% 以上。現在，我們大約每 5 個帳戶中就有 1 個是透過數位管道開設的，而不是親自開設的。

In closing, we've built enough strong revenue engines and have sufficient risk appetite to grow constructively provided we fund the asset growth with organic deposit growth. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim Reske, our CFO. Jim?

最後，我們已經建立了足夠強大的收入引擎，並且有足夠的風險偏好來建設性成長，只要我們透過有機存款成長為資產成長提供資金。接下來，我會將其交給我們的財務長吉姆·雷斯克 (Jim Reske)。吉姆？

Thanks, Mike. We have been able to produce solid deposit growth all year to fund our loan growth. On a year-to-date basis, making no adjustments whatsoever for our Centric acquisition, loans have grown by $1.28 billion, while deposits have grown by nearly the same amount, $1.24 billion. As a result, our loan-to-deposit ratio has been relatively stable in the mid-90s all year, but that masks our ability to grow our deposit base to fund our loan growth.

謝謝，麥克。我們全年都能實現穩定的存款成長，為貸款成長提供資金。今年迄今為止，在我們收購 Centric 的過程中沒有進行任何調整的情況下，貸款增長了 12.8 億美元，而存款增長了幾乎相同的數額，即 12.4 億美元。因此，我們的貸存比全年都相對穩定在 90 年代中期，但這掩蓋了我們擴大存款基礎為貸款成長提供資金的能力。

Excluding the Centric acquisition, total loans have grown by $354 million year-to-date, while period-end deposits excluding Centric have grown by $597 million. These deposits, however, came at a cost. In the third quarter, we saw our cost of deposits increased by 28 basis points, while our loan yields improved by only 21 basis points.

不包括 Centric 的收購，今年迄今貸款總額增加了 3.54 億美元，而不包括 Centric 的期末存款增加了 5.97 億美元。然而，這些存款是有代價的。第三季度，我們的存款成本增加了 28 個基點，而貸款收益率僅提高了 21 個基點。

Deposit rotation from low-yield categories, the higher cost deposit categories continued, but at a slower rate than last quarter. Fortunately, the overall pace of deposit cost increases continued to slow in the third quarter. Average cost of funds increased 48 basis points in the second quarter but only increased 32 basis points in the third quarter. It's too early to call the peak on deposit costs, but loan yields keep coming up nicely as well.

存款繼續從低收益類別、高成本存款類別轉向，但速度較上季放緩。值得慶幸的是，第三季存款成本整體上漲步伐持續放緩。第二季平均資金成本增加48個基點，但第三季僅增加32個基點。現在說存款成本見頂還為時過早，但貸款收益率也持續上升。

New loans came on the books at an average rate of 7.43% in the third quarter, up nicely from 7.01% in the second quarter and 6.61% in the first quarter. The result, as Mike said, was 9 basis points of margin compression to 3.76%, a level which we still believe compares relatively well with peers.

第三季新增貸款平均利率為7.43%，明顯高於第二季的7.01%和第一季的6.61%。正如麥克所說，結果是利潤率壓縮了 9 個基點，達到 3.76%，我們仍然認為該水準與同行相比相對較好。

Our initial outlook for next year continues to show margin stability, though the range of potential outcomes is wider than usual due to the unpredictability of depositor behavior. Our base case rate scenario calls for a Fed funds rate of about 4% by the end of next year. In this projection, the NIM actually expands a bit until mid-'24 and then falls slightly in the second half, ending 2024 right about where it is now, hence, NIM stability. In a higher-for-longer rate scenario, you don't see that dip in the second half of 2024, so the NIM is marginally better, by about 5 basis points.

我們對明年的初步展望繼續顯示保證金穩定性，儘管由於儲戶行為的不可預測性，潛在結果的範圍比平常更廣泛。我們的基本情境利率情境要求明年年底聯邦基金利率達到 4% 左右。在此預測中，NIM 實際上在 24 年中期之前略有擴張，然後在下半年略有下降，到 2024 年結束時就處於現在的水平，因此，NIM 穩定。在長期利率較高的情況下，您不會看到 2024 年下半年出現下降，因此淨利差稍微好一些，大約提高了 5 個基點。

These forecasts are highly dependent on assumptions regarding depositor behavior. For example, we have fairly conservative assumptions around the continued rotation of customer deposits in 2024 from low-cost categories into higher-yielding loans -- higher-costing loans, even in a falling rate environment. So even in that falling rate environment, we assume that we'll still have about 10% of the low-cost deposits rotate into higher-cost categories, in keeping with our experience in 2023. And even with those assumptions, the 2024 NIM looks stable.

這些預測高度依賴有關儲戶行為的假設。例如，即使在利率下降的環境下，我們對 2024 年客戶存款繼續從低成本類別轉向高收益貸款（成本較高的貸款）的假設相當保守。因此，即使在利率下降的環境下，我們仍然假設大約 10% 的低成本存款會轉向更高成本的類別，這與我們 2023 年的經驗一致。即使有這些假設，2024 年的淨利差看起來穩定的。

By contrast, in a higher-for-longer rate environment, we get the benefit of higher loan yields in part because the variable rate loan portfolio does not reprice downwards. But in that scenario, we'd expect more deposit rotation into higher cost freight categories, which would offset some of the benefit of higher rates.

相較之下，在長期利率較高的環境中，我們獲得較高貸款收益率的好處，部分原因是可變利率貸款組合不會向下重新定價。但在這種情況下，我們預計會有更多存款轉向成本較高的貨運類別，這將抵消較高費率帶來的部分好處。

Fee income was little changed from last quarter. SBA gain on sale premiums have been under pressure, but our wealth division did better. We expect the income to be little changed next quarter. For next year, we are looking to grow SBA fee income to help offset slowing mortgage gain on sale income and the impact of lost interchange income due to the Durbin Amendment.

費用收入與上季相比變化不大。 SBA 的銷售溢價收益一直面臨壓力，但我們的財富部門表現較好。我們預計下個季度營收變化不大。明年，我們希望增加 SBA 費用收入，以幫助抵消銷售收入抵押貸款收益放緩以及《杜賓修正案》造成的互換收入損失的影響。

Noninterest expense was elevated in the second quarter, in part due to costs associated with debit cards and related items, as Mike described. Our expected noninterest expense is around $65 million to $67 million next quarter. We think expense pressures will continue in 2024, but we're committed to keeping a lid on costs.

正如麥克所描述的，第二季非利息支出增加，部分原因是與金融卡和相關項目相關的成本。我們預計下個季度的非利息支出約為 6,500 萬至 6,700 萬美元。我們認為 2024 年費用壓力仍將持續，但我們致力於控製成本。

We repurchased approximately 260,000 shares in the third quarter at a weighted average price of $12.36. We slowed share repurchases somewhat late in the second quarter to conserve capital. Tangible book value per share increased from $8.24 to $8.35 as retained earnings growth outstripped increased AOCI. Regulatory capital ratios improved slightly while the tangible common equity ratio remained unchanged. And with that, I will turn it back over to Mike.

我們在第三季以 12.36 美元的加權平均價格回購了約 260,000 股股票。我們在第二季末放緩了股票回購，以節省資本。由於留存收益的成長超過了 AOCI 的成長，每股有形帳面價值從 8.24 美元增加到 8.35 美元。監理資本比率略有改善，而有形普通股比率維持不變。有了這個，我會把它轉回給麥克。

Operator, now we'll turn it over for questions.

接線員，現在我們將其移交以供提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Daniel Tamayo 和 Raymond James 的線路。

Maybe we start on -- I just want to make sure I heard your guidance correctly here, Jim, on the margin. Yes, I mean just -- I guess I can just tell you why I -- so if the Fed funds rate ends about 4% end of the year, then the NIM is going to expand -- sorry, yes, expand during the year and then end the year around where it is now? Is there any contraction at the beginning of the year? Or is that -- did I hear that just expand and then -- okay.

也許我們可以開始——我只是想確保我在這裡正確地聽到了你的指導，吉姆，在邊緣。是的，我的意思是 - 我想我可以告訴你為什麼 - 所以如果聯邦基金利率在年底達到 4% 左右，那麼淨息差將會擴大 - 抱歉，是的，今年會擴大然後年底的情況是現在的情況嗎？年初有收縮嗎？或者是——我聽說只是擴大然後——好吧。

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to talk over you. But yes, you got it right the first time. There's a little bit of expansion from now. So you get some of the benefit of the loan portfolio, the rate increases that have happened this year year-to-date and a positive (inaudible) we have been experiencing. So that helps to give you a little bit of expansion. But then rates -- if the Fed funds rate falls that much by the end of next year, there's pressure in the variable rate portfolio. That brings the overall NIM down a bit, so it trails off towards the end of next year and it ends next year and that projection actually exactly where it is right now in the (inaudible).

對不起，我不是故意要跟你說話的。但是，是的，你第一次就做對了。從現在開始有一點點擴充。因此，您可以從貸款組合、今年迄今發生的利率上漲以及我們一直在經歷的積極（聽不清楚）中獲益。所以這有助於給你一點擴充。但接下來是利率——如果聯邦基金利率到明年年底下降這麼多，可變利率投資組合就會面臨壓力。這使得整體淨利差略有下降，因此它將在明年年底前逐漸減弱，並在明年結束，而該預測實際上與目前的情況完全相同（聽不清楚）。

Okay. So you've got the margin going up next quarter essentially and then Fed dependent kind of as we move into 2024?

好的。那麼，下個季度的利潤率將大幅上升，然後隨著我們進入 2024 年，這將取決於聯準會？

Yes. With the big caveat that these are all projections and we could always be wrong. They are forecasts, right? So the hard thing to forecast has been depositor behavior, which is one of the reasons I was trying to give a little more disclosure on some of the deposit behavior assumptions underlying the projections. But that's right. You've got that right. In that projection, we think that the low point for the margin is actually this quarter.

是的。但要注意的是，這些都是預測，我們總是可能是錯的。它們是預測，對嗎？因此，最難預測的是存款人的行為，這也是我試圖對預測背後的一些存款行為假設進行更多揭露的原因之一。但那是對的。你說得對。在該預測中，我們認為利潤率的最低點實際上是本季。

On that note, do you have the -- what the margin was kind of in September? Or just curious how it progressed during the third quarter.

關於這一點，您是否知道 9 月的利潤率是多少？或者只是好奇第三季的進展如何。

I don't, but I'll get it for you before the end of the call.

我沒有，但我會在通話結束前給你拿。

Okay. That sounds great. And then the -- just wondering, I heard your comment on expense pressure continuing in 2024. Just curious if you could put a little finer point on kind of how you're thinking about that relative to maybe what you've done historically in terms of expense growth.

好的。聽起來不錯。然後 - 只是想知道，我聽到您對 2024 年持續支出壓力的評論。只是好奇您是否可以根據您歷史上所做的事情，詳細說明您是如何看待這個問題的費用增長。

I'll start there, Daniel, and great question. Just a week ago, we went through 30 operating plans for regions, lines of business and business support units, and with resolve, we will try to get to a good point of operating leverage in next year's budget. And that will include a combination of making the best assumptions we can about what's going to happen in different optionalities for interest rates, really driving some more costs out and not -- you have enough turnover in a bank, you don't have to announce [rifts] and things like that, but just in process -- coupled with process improvements, but we just expect every line of business, every business unit, every region to get better every year, to grow deposits, to grow loans and create some operating leverage in their own respective budgets. And we're about 50% through that process. So we'll land the plane here in the next 30 days. And -- but that's the goal. And if you look at our track record over the last 11 or 12 years, we're pretty close or good at that. And if we miss, it's not by much.

我將從這裡開始，丹尼爾，這是一個很好的問題。就在一週前，我們針對地區、業務線和業務支援單位制定了30項營運計劃，並下定決心，努力在明年的預算中達到良好的營運槓桿點。這將包括對不同利率選擇中將會發生的情況做出最佳假設，真正降低更多成本，而不是——你在銀行有足夠的周轉率，你不必宣布[裂痕]和類似的事情，但只是在過程中——加上流程改進，但我們只是期望每個業務線、每個業務部門、每個地區每年都變得更好，增加存款、增加貸款並創造一些各自預算中的營運槓桿。我們已經完成了大約 50% 的流程。所以我們將在未來 30 天內將飛機降落在這裡。而且——但這就是目標。如果你看看我們過去 11 或 12 年的業績記錄，你會發現我們在這方面非常接近或很擅長。即使我們錯過了，也不會差太多。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Perito with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Michael Perito。

I wanted to circle back on the margin conversation a little bit. I was curious if you guys can maybe give us a little incremental color in terms of like what the incremental spread is on your loan and deposit books today, so meaning like your blended commercial loan yield on new originations against kind of your incremental dollar of deposits and where that spread is today. And it would seem like, based on your margin guidance, that you guys feel a bit more confident about being able to maintain or grow that spread moving forward now. But just curious if I'm interpreting that correctly. And any detail there would be helpful.

我想稍微回顧一下邊緣對話。我很好奇你們能否給我們一些增量的信息，比如你們今天的貸款和存款賬簿上的增量利差是多少，所以這意味著你們新發起的混合商業貸款收益率與增量存款美元的關係以及今天的傳播情況。根據你們的利潤指引，你們似乎對現在能夠維持或擴大這一利差更有信心了。但只是好奇我的解釋是否正確。任何細節都會有幫助。

Go ahead, Jim.

繼續吧，吉姆。

I think you're talking about -- well, new loan spreads like on corporate loans, I think, are holding up very nicely.

我認為你正在談論——嗯，我認為，新的貸款利差（例如企業貸款）保持得很好。

They are, and in fact, our biggest category of growth is commercial variable and our spreads there on advances and really all-in are well in excess of 8%.

事實上，我們最大的成長類別是商業變量，我們在預付款和真正全押方面的利差遠遠超過 8%。

Okay. And on the incremental funding side, roughly where are you guys kind of at today against that excess 8% figure?

好的。在增量資金方面，相對於超過 8% 的數字，你們今天大致處於什麼水平？

Yes. Incremental funding is going to be driven by the kind of deposit specials we have out right now, which is going to be between 4% and 5%. Current CD special time deposit specials are right about 5% and money market specials are between 4% and 4.5%.

是的。增量資金將由我們目前推出的特殊存款優惠推動，利率將在 4% 至 5% 之間。目前CD特別定期存款優惠約為5%，貨幣市場優惠在4%至4.5%之間。

Okay. All right. So I mean it sounds like then the incremental spread is very supportive of kind of the margin, which I guess, backing into your commentary, Jim, to the prior question about how you think this could be the bottom for the NIM, I mean that -- those facts would seem to be very supportive. I mean is that kind of the build up in terms of your projections?

好的。好的。所以我的意思是，聽起來增量利差非常支持某種利潤，我想，回到你的評論，吉姆，關於你如何認為這可能是 NIM 底部的先前問題，我的意思是——這些事實似乎非常有支持性。我的意思是，根據您的預測，這就是這種累積嗎？

Yes, I think that's right. And just to be (inaudible) clear, the figure [micro-sorting] the yield on some of the corporate categories, if the overall yield and everything coming in is 7.43% in the quarter and your marginal cost of funds is still in the 4% to 5% range, that does kind of support the continued stability of the NIM.

是的，我認為這是對的。需要明確的是（聽不清楚），如果本季的總體收益率和所有收入均為 7.43%，並且您的資金邊際成本仍為 4，則該數字[微觀排序]某些公司類別的收益率%到5% 的範圍，這確實支持了NIM 的持續穩定。

Yes, and we've pivoted. We're supporting growth in categories, quite frankly, that have the best spread, and we're really believers in all of our businesses, but there's times where we've pinched some of those businesses that have lower yields at this time. We want to keep our producers looking forward, but we're putting on assets in the most attractive categories generally.

是的，我們已經轉變了。坦白說，我們支持具有最佳分佈的類別的成長，我們確實相信我們所有的業務，但有時我們會擠壓一些目前收益率較低的業務。我們希望讓我們的製作人保持期待，但我們通常會在最具吸引力的類別中投放資產。

That's helpful. And then if we think -- as we start, and I realize you're not really providing 2024 guide full yet, but as we think about the growth opportunities next year, it seems to me like it's kind of a balance between your appetite for growth and customers' appetite for taking credit, right? And so I mean on the one hand, it seems like your balance sheet is very well positioned. If the spreads and the risk-adjusted returns are within your comfort level, you guys have room to grow loans on a net basis, pretty -- at least mid-single digits next year without putting too much stress on really anything.

這很有幫助。然後，如果我們想——當我們開始時，我意識到你們還沒有真正提供完整的2024 年指南，但當我們考慮明年的成長機會時，在我看來，這是你們的胃口之間的平衡。成長和客戶接受信貸的胃口，對嗎？所以我的意思是，一方面，你的資產負債表似乎處於非常有利的位置。如果利差和風險調整後的回報在您的舒適水平之內，那麼你們明年就有淨額增長貸款的空間，至少是中個位數，而不會給任何事情帶來太大的壓力。

But I guess the flip side of that question is, do you think there's enough customer appetite with, for example, corporate yields north of 8% to drive that type of production based on what you're hearing and seeing today? And I would love just some color on kind of those two sides of the equation as we think about loan growth for 2024 for you guys.

但我想這個問題的另一面是，根據您今天所聽到和看到的情況，您是否認為客戶有足夠的興趣（例如，企業收益率超過 8%）來推動此類生產？當我們為你們考慮 2024 年的貸款成長時，我希望在等式的兩側提供一些顏色。

We do. I mean we're not a market maker, we're a taker. We're -- in most of the markets we're in, there is sufficient volume and opportunities out there for us to compete. And we have a number of competitors, both small and large, that either don't have the flexibility or desire to grow right now. So that's where we're at. It's a good position to be in.

我們的確是。我的意思是我們不是做市商，我們是接受者。我們——在我們所處的大多數市場中，都有足夠的數量和機會供我們競爭。我們有許多大大小小的競爭對手，他們要么沒有彈性，要么沒有發展的願望。這就是我們現在的情況。這是一個很好的位置。

And by the way, that varies by geography. We have 6 markets, capital region in Eastern PA, Community PA, Pittsburgh, Northern Ohio, Central Ohio and Cincinnati. And it does vary by geography, but we believe there's enough out there to comfortably hit what are lower loan figures this year and next year than we've done in the prior 2 years. Part of that is because we're pretty balanced, and we have any more a pretty full range of solutions for clients.

順便說一句，這因地理位置而異。我們有 6 個市場，賓州東部首府地區、賓州社區、匹茲堡、俄亥俄州北部、俄亥俄州中部和辛辛那提。它確實因地理位置而異，但我們相信有足夠的資源可以輕鬆實現今年和明年比前兩年更低的貸款數字。部分原因是我們非常平衡，我們為客戶提供了相當全面的解決方案。

Great. And then just last question for me. Obviously, the credit quality of your balance sheet remains pretty stable here. But as we think about the third quarter, there's really been some not so savory data points from many credit card delinquencies, auto delinquencies. Obviously, Discover was pretty bearish on their earnings call. So how do you guys kind of approach the credit piece here?

偉大的。然後是我的最後一個問題。顯然，您的資產負債表的信用品質在這裡仍然相當穩定。但當我們思考第三季時，許多信用卡拖欠、汽車拖欠確實有一些不那麼令人愉快的數據點。顯然，Discover 在財報電話會議上相當悲觀。那你們要如何處理這裡的功勞呢？

I mean obviously, you're culling your portfolio and stressing it and looking at it, but there are starting to become somewhat obvious signs of deterioration. Obviously, that doesn't directly correlate to your loan book, right, but could have broader implications for the economy if continued, right? So I just would love some updated thoughts around the current credit environment. And yes, I was just curious how you guys are kind of approaching that just given some of the data points we've gotten in the last kind of week or two.

我的意思是，顯然，你正在剔除你的投資組合，對其進行強調並進行審視，但已經開始出現一些明顯的惡化跡象。顯然，這與你的貸款帳簿沒有直接關係，對吧，但如果繼續下去，可能會對經濟產生更廣泛的影響，對吧？所以我只是想了解一些關於當前信貸環境的最新想法。是的，我只是好奇你們是如何接近我們在過去一兩週獲得的一些數據點的。

Well, we have Jane Grebenc, myself, Brian Karrip and others that have been through several cycles over 35 years or so in each. And this geography we're in tends to do pretty well through cycles and has through -- did through the great financial crisis in certain categories. We've really tightened and we're tough on credit across the board, appropriately so. And there are -- we do feel there'll be some strain, but probably on things in retrospect that we knew we should have done at the time. But we'll work through it and -- but we do think that there's enough demand out there and the credit will hold up relatively well. Brian, do you want to add any color to that?

嗯，我們有 Jane Grebenc、我自己、Brian Karrip 和其他人，他們每個週期都經歷了 35 年左右的幾個週期。我們所處的這個地區往往在各個週期中表現都很好，並且在某些類別中已經度過了巨大的金融危機。我們確實實施了緊縮政策，對信貸全面採取強硬態度，這是適當的。我們確實覺得會有一些壓力，但回想起來，可能是我們當時知道應該要做的事。但我們會解決這個問題——但我們確實認為那裡有足夠的需求，信貸將保持相對良好的狀態。布萊恩，你想為此添加一些顏色嗎？

Just that we have seen delinquencies in the consumer side pick up a couple of basis points. As we look at it and take it apart, we know that our portfolio for indirect is up a few basis points, roughly 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter. But our portfolio is well underwritten. If you think about the strong FICO score in that business, around 744 weighted average, you think about the granularity in the portfolio, the deal size, the go-to-market strategy, we feel pretty comfortable that we can see what we have in our portfolio and address any increase in delinquencies.

只是我們看到消費者方面的拖欠率上升了幾個基點。當我們審視並拆解它時，我們知道我們的間接投資組合上升了幾個基點，環比上升了大約 10 個基點。但我們的投資組合得到了很好的承保。如果你考慮到該業務的強勁 FICO 評分（加權平均值約為 744），考慮到投資組合的粒度、交易規模、進入市場策略，我們會感到非常放心，因為我們可以看到我們擁有的東西我們的投資組合並解決拖欠率的任何增加。

Brian, if I could add, just kind of looking over your shoulder at your delinquency reports, this still is a little bit mixed. Overall, consumer delinquencies are up as the categories you mentioned, but they're somewhere down as well, I think, right?

布萊恩，如果我可以補充一下，只是回頭看看你的犯罪報告，這仍然有點複雜。總體而言，消費者拖欠率與您提到的類別一樣有所上升，但我認為它們也有所下降，對嗎？

Yes, the HELOC category improved, and we think our portfolio is in good shape entering into this credit cycle.

是的，HELOC 類別有所改善，我們認為我們的投資組合在進入這個信貸週期時狀況良好。

Got it. No, I think that's very fair. I appreciate you guys all pitching in there and providing some color. It's helpful.

知道了。不，我認為這非常公平。我感謝你們所有人的參與並提供一些顏色。這很有幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Karl Shepard with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的卡爾謝潑德 (Karl Shepard)。

I wanted to pick up here on the deposit conversation. Jim, I appreciate kind of all the help and the sensitivities in the forecasting. But what are you guys hearing from this field that gives you a little bit of confidence in the forecast? And I know the comment was, I think, slowing deposit pressures. But if you had to give it your best shot, when do you think deposit costs can peak, assuming the Fed is done?

我想在這裡繼續討論存款問題。吉姆，我很感謝預測中的所有幫助和敏感度。但你們從這個領域聽到了什麼讓你們對預測有一點信心呢？我認為，我知道這一評論正在減緩存款壓力。但如果你必須盡最大努力，假設聯準會已經結束了，你認為存款成本什麼時候會達到高峰？

Yes, you're -- I'll maybe go right to the heart of your question on the deposit peak. The projections we have, even in a falling rate environment, they drift slowly upward. The analogy -- I don't think it's a good analogy, but it's one I came up with, is it's like a motor boat, you shut off the engine and it keeps drifting forward. Even if the Fed cuts rates next year, deposit -- overall deposit costs will continue to drift upward just because of this rotation phenomenon that we've been talking about. That's why we've been trying to track it, understand it.

是的，我可能會直奔你關於存款高峰的問題的核心。我們的預測，即使在利率下降的環境下，它們也會緩慢上升。這個類比——我認為這不是一個很好的類比，但這是我想出的一個類比，它就像一艘摩托艇，你關掉引擎，它就會繼續向前漂流。即使聯準會明年降息，由於我們一直在談論的這種輪換現象，存款——整體存款成本將繼續上升。這就是為什麼我們一直在努力追蹤它、理解它。

I think we've been very successful in getting new dollars in the door and growing our deposit base, like I mentioned in my leadoff -- the leadoff to my comments, but it also reprices our own loan book, and that's going to continue next year. So it doesn't -- in our projections, even in a falling rate environment, we don't see a peak. It kind of levels off towards the end of next year. And then in a -- if rates stay higher for longer, if rates don't change from here, in that environment, the deposit rates continue to drift upward. It's just that the loan rates drift upward even -- at an even faster rate. And so that's why it's better from a margin perspective for us.

我認為我們已經非常成功地獲得了新的資金並擴大了我們的存款基礎，就像我在我的開頭中提到的那樣——我的評論的開頭，但它也重新定價了我們自己的貸款帳簿，這將在接下來繼續年。所以事實並非如此——根據我們的預測，即使在利率下降的環境下，我們也看不到高峰。到明年年底，這種情況會趨於平穩。然後，如果利率在較長時間內保持在較高水平，如果利率從現在開始沒有變化，在那種環境下，存款利率將繼續上升。只是貸款利率甚至以更快的速度向上浮動。這就是為什麼從利潤角度來看這對我們來說更好。

Yes. I would just add, and Jane is on the phone, I think her and the team have done a terrific job pivoting to deposits, bringing deposits in. And as you recall, we got off to a late start simply because we had to preempt under $10 billion with Durbin. And -- but once we got focused, we've grown deposits pretty nicely from quarter-to-quarter and added a lot of new deposits. Jane, any color you want to add?

是的。我想補充一點，簡正在打電話，我認為她和團隊在轉向存款、吸引存款方面做得非常出色。正如你所記得的，我們起步較晚，僅僅是因為我們必須先發製人與杜賓合作100 億美元。而且，一旦我們集中註意力，我們的存款就逐季度大幅增長，並增加了大量新存款。簡，你想添加什麼顏色嗎？

Only that we have seen the request for deposit exceptions decline a bit, which tells us that competitors are slowing down a bit. And our retention rate on the CDs that we have been bringing in, in our money market specials, the retention rates were very good. So we feel good. You can never have too many transaction accounts, but we feel good.

只是我們看到存款例外的請求略有下降，這告訴我們競爭對手的速度有所放緩。我們在貨幣市場特價商品中引入的 CD 的保留率非常高。所以我們感覺很好。您永遠不會擁有太多的交易帳戶，但我們感覺很好。

It's Jim again. If I could jump back in, just because Jane mentioned it, our CD retention rate has been really remarkable. We retain about 80% of the CDs that mature. Now of that, the ones that we retain, we've seen about 60% of those would go to the rack rate, so they're priced lower, but about 40% will take the current special rate. But the retention rate has been really strong. That's been really in our favor.

又是吉姆。如果我能回到過去，僅僅因為 Jane 提到了這一點，我們的 CD 保留率確實非常出色。我們保留了約 80% 的成熟 CD。現在，我們保留的那些，我們看到其中大約 60% 將採用機架價格，因此它們的價格較低，但大約 40% 將採用當前的特價。但保留率確實很高。這確實對我們有利。

Let me also just take a minute just to give you a little more color on that, the whole deposit rotation concept we've been talking about, because it really informs our projections for next year. So if I look at the low-cost deposit categories really of noninterest-bearing and savings, those together were about $4.6 billion at the end of the first quarter. And that's a good starting point for us because we closed the Centric acquisition in the first quarter.

讓我也花一點時間為您提供更多信息，即我們一直在討論的整個存款輪換概念，因為它確實為我們明年的預測提供了信息。因此，如果我看看無息存款和儲蓄的低成本存款類別，第一季末這些存款總額約為 46 億美元。這對我們來說是一個很好的起點，因為我們在第一季完成了對 Centric 的收購。

Those two categories together fell to about $4.3 billion in the second quarter. That was a 5.8% decline in those categories. But in the third quarter, it fell to $4.2 billion. That was a 3.6% decline in those categories. So just at a macro level, I mean Jane is giving you the color from the street of the day-to-day exceptions that we deal with and customers and those interactions. But on a macro level, I'm watching the numbers and I've seen it slow down. That gives me a lot of confidence.

第二季度，這兩個類別的美元合計跌至約 43 億美元。這些類別下降了 5.8%。但到了第三季度，這一數字就跌至 42 億美元。這些類別下降了 3.6%。因此，就宏觀層面而言，我的意思是簡正在向您展示我們處理的日常例外情況以及客戶和這些互動的情況。但在宏觀層面上，我正在觀察這些數字，我發現它正在放緩。這給了我很大的信心。

And even with that, we still have a fairly aggressive assumption that it's going to continue next year. And even with that, we still get instability. Oh, and one more thing. I do have the month-to-month NIM answer from the previous caller from, I think, Danny, you were asking. July NIM was 3.83%, which is pretty consistent with the second quarter, 3.85%. July was 3.83%. August was 3.69% and September was up to 3.76%. So there you go.

即便如此，我們仍然有一個相當激進的假設，明年這種情況將繼續下去。即便如此，我們仍然不穩定。哦，還有一件事。我確實收到了前一個來電者的逐月 NIM 答复，我想，丹尼，你是在問這個問題。 7 月淨利差為 3.83%，與第二季的 3.85% 相當一致。 7月份為3.83%。 8月為3.69%，9月高達3.76%。那麼就這樣吧。

Okay. Not that, that wasn't a lot of color, but I'm just going to ask a follow-up on deposits. But the strategic focus is growing deposits to fund loan growth, right? We've talked a lot about the pricing pressures and that changing location. Just when you think about driving balanced growth in 2024, it doesn't seem like it's going to be a CD special game. It seems like it's going to be more core relationship growth. But if you could just expand on those comment a little bit, that would be great.

好的。不是這樣，這並沒有太多色彩，但我只是想詢問有關存款的後續情況。但策略重點是增加存款來為貸款成長提供資金，對嗎？我們已經討論了很多關於定價壓力和地點變化的問題。當你考慮在 2024 年推動平衡成長時，它似乎不會是一款 CD 特殊遊戲。看起來這會是更核心的關係發展。但如果你能稍微擴展一下這些評論，那就太好了。

Jane, do you want to (inaudible) and lead us off there?

簡，你想（聽不清楚）帶我們去那裡嗎？

Well, I think we're always going to have CD specials, at least for the next couple, 3 years. But as I said before, I don't think the pace or the height of these specials is going to continue. And we still have a very strong transaction account base and we've got a nice savings book. So I feel very good about our deposit positioning.

嗯，我想我們總會有 CD 特輯，至少在接下來的三年裡是這樣。但正如我之前所說，我認為這些特價商品的節奏或高​​度不會持續下去。我們仍然擁有非常強大的交易帳戶基礎，並且我們有很好的儲蓄簿。所以我對我們的存款定位感覺非常好。

We have a good slide on Slide 15. This is Mike. Sorry to interrupt. Thanks for that, Jane. But our average retail account is $11,000. Our average deposit size is $18,000. You might move over 3 or 4 basis points, but you're probably not -- or 300 or 400 basis points, but perhaps not still inclined over an additional 25, and these are loyal customers in small communities. I mean our Community PA, we call it the bread basket of our company, is $3.5 billion of our deposits, and just great clients, deep relationships. Just we do feel confident that we have a good depository and we just -- they could surprise us, as Jim suggested, but we feel like we're well positioned.

我們在幻燈片 15 上有一張很好的幻燈片。這是麥克。抱歉打擾。謝謝你，簡。但我們的平均零售帳戶為 11,000 美元。我們的平均存款金額為 18,000 美元。你可能會移動超過 3 或 4 個基點，但你可能不會——或者 300 或 400 個基點，但可能仍然不會傾向於額外的 25 個基點，而這些都是小社區的忠實客戶。我的意思是我們的社區 PA，我們稱之為我們公司的麵包籃，是我們 35 億美元的存款，以及偉大的客戶和深厚的關係。只是我們確實有信心，我們有一個良好的保管機構，而且我們只是 - 正如吉姆所說，他們可能會給我們帶來驚喜，但我們覺得我們處於有利地位。

Your next question comes from the line of Manuel Navas with DA Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自曼努埃爾·納瓦斯 (Manuel Navas) 和 DA Davidson 的對話。

What are you kind of assuming on that like loan yield repricing kind of in a normal quarter with no hikes, with no change to the Fed funds rate. Do you have kind of a standard loan yield increase?

您對此有何假設，例如在正常季度中貸款收益率重新定價，沒有升息，聯邦基金利率也沒有變化。你們有標準的貸款收益率成長嗎？

I'll just start where I think Jim might have mentioned it, but our portfolio here in the last quarter was about 7.40% in terms of new loan yields, and that ranged from as high as, in certain categories, as high as well over 8%. And the two key categories are commercial and really equipment finance, and equipment finance is really running in the high 7s. And so those are key categories for us, but there's good volume there, and that volume doesn't evaporate. And even our indirect business has gotten up in almost 7%, 6.85%. So just good progression by the team in terms of getting paid for our risk and wherever they're out on the yield curve. And so that's a nice position to start from. Jim, anything you want to add?

我將從我認為吉姆可能提到的地方開始，但就新貸款收益率而言，上個季度我們的投資組合約為 7.40%，在某些類別中，該收益率高達 7.4% 甚至更高8%。兩個關鍵類別是商業金融和真正的設備金融，而設備金融確實處於高水準。因此，這些是我們的關鍵類別，但那裡有很大的數量，而且這個數量不會消失。甚至我們的間接業務也成長了近7%、6.85%。因此，團隊在為我們的風險獲得報酬以及他們在殖利率曲線上的任何位置方面都取得了良好的進展。所以這是一個很好的起點。吉姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Manuel, I'd add, so we keep giving you and we were giving you the new loan yields, but the replacement yields, the differential between the yield on what's coming on versus what's coming off has been expanding. And that also gives us confidence in the margin. So in the second quarter, that differential was 87 basis points. After new loans are coming on the book's at 7.01%, but that was 87 basis points higher than what was running off the books. And this is -- the differential in the third quarter was 115 basis points.

是的，曼努埃爾，我要補充一點，所以我們一直給你，我們給你新的貸款收益率，但是替代收益率，即即將發生的收益率與即將發生的收益率之間的差異一直在擴大。這也讓我們對利潤率充滿信心。因此，第二季的差距為 87 個基點。新貸款入帳後，帳面利率為 7.01%，但這比帳面外貸款利率高出 87 個基點。第三季的差異為 115 個基點。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. Is your thinking about growth in fourth quarter into next year, where does the pipeline stand? And there's usually been a shift towards more commercial at the back half of the year. Is that -- could that keep happening? Just kind of thought process on the mix of [the loan book] at the back half of the year and into next year?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。您是否考慮第四季到明年的成長，通路狀況如何？下半年通常會轉向更多商業化。那是——這種情況會繼續發生嗎？只是關於下半年和明年的[貸款簿]組合的思考過程嗎？

Pipelines are definitely lighter than they were a year or 2 ago, but the 2 years preceding this, we grew in the low teens. And so the -- understandably, we do think the kind of guidance we've given, mid-single digits from 4% to 6% is very achievable in a variety of ways. And if anything, we're kind of pinching volume if the spread isn't right or it's not in the right category. And at the same time, we kind of -- we cherish a couple of businesses right now that we're pinching a little bit more just because of where the yields are at.

管道肯定比一兩年前要輕，但在此之前的兩年，我們的成長速度只有十幾歲。因此，可以理解的是，我們確實認為我們給予的指導，即 4% 到 6% 的中個位數，可以透過多種方式實現。如果有的話，如果價差不正確或不屬於正確的類別，我們就會減少交易量。同時，我們現在很珍惜一些業務，只是因為收益率的問題，我們才更加緊縮。

And by pinching, we mean we're pricing those so that the new origination volume is fairly close to the runoff volume. So the loan portfolio size doesn't grow, but if the price is upward, which doesn't create any capital or funding pressures, but does increase yield and margin. And on the consumer side, that story is playing out fairly nicely.

透過收縮，我們的意思是我們對這些定價，以便新的原始量相當接近徑流量。因此，貸款組合規模不會增加，但如果價格上漲，不會產生任何資本或融資壓力，但會增加收益率和利潤率。在消費者方面，這個故事正在上演得相當好。

That's mainly auto, right?

主要是汽車吧？

Yes. I'm thinking particularly of auto. I think we've spoken about that before, but that's exactly what I'm thinking about. And that creates room when do you want to -- for which new growth that you want to fund and capitalize gives you the ability to do that in commercial lending.

是的。我特別想到汽車。我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題，但這正是我正在考慮的。這會在你想要的時候創造空間——你想要資助和資本化的新增長使你有能力在商業貸款中做到這一點。

Is the -- can you kind of give an update on equipment finance? That's been a nice place of growth. It seems like yields have kind of gotten better, high 7s. Just the latest there? It's obviously gone from a small base, but the growth has been pretty nice.

能否介紹一下設備財務方面的最新情況？那是一個成長的好地方。收益率似乎有所提高，高達 7。只是最新的嗎？顯然，它的基數很小，但成長相當不錯。

Yes. I mean that's -- it's now at, the group...

是的。我的意思是──現在，小組…

$46 million?

4600萬美元？

$46 million this past quarter or like $35 million actually, and $46 million of new volume and at 7.69% and just we like the granularity of that. We've even pinched that a little bit in terms of the type of equipment finance that we're doing. And so -- and we just have a terrific team that we did a lift out a few years ago, and we're just pretty bullish on the business in some of our commercial categories.

上個季度的營收為 4,600 萬美元，實際上約為 3,500 萬美元，新銷量為 4,600 萬美元，成長率為 7.69%，我們喜歡這種粒度。我們甚至在我們正在進行的設備融資類型方面進行了一些縮減。因此，我們擁有一支出色的團隊，幾年前我們就對其進行了升級，而且我們非常看好某些商業類別的業務。

Just to shift -- I appreciate that. Just to shift for my last question, can you talk a little bit about new deposit flows and how much are coming from current customers bringing in more money or from gaining households?

只是為了改變——我很欣賞這一點。為了轉移我的最後一個問題，您能否談談新的存款流量以及有多少來自當前客戶帶來的更多資金或來自增加的家庭？

Yes. So that relationship is actually something we've been watching this year. It's remained fairly stable. So when we get -- for every $100 of new money that we get in from a deposit special, about $50 is about -- from our own book repricing upward. So that you put out a CD special and now what you're doing is get a little bit from an existing savings account, a noninterest bearing, into the new special CD special or money market special. But the other $50 is new. And that other $50 that's new, about half is from our existing customer base. So it is bringing more money to us, which is great. And then the last $25 is the real -- the new money.

是的。因此，這種關係實際上是我們今年一直在關注的事情。一直保持相當穩定。因此，當我們從特別存款中獲得的每 100 美元新資金中，大約有 50 美元來自我們自己的帳簿重新定價。因此，您推出了一張特別 CD，現在您要做的就是從現有的儲蓄帳戶（無息）中取出一點，存入新的特別 CD 特別或貨幣市場特別。但另外 50 美元是新的。另外 50 美元是新的，大約一半來自我們現有的客戶群。所以它給我們帶來了更多的錢，這很棒。最後的 25 美元才是真正的——新錢。

I think what's helped us there is a year ago, our cost of funds deposits at this time last year, Jim, was 5 basis points, right? And we had all been driven off CD customers.

我認為一年前對我們有幫助的是，去年這個時候我們的資金成本存款是 5 個基點，對吧？我們都被CD客戶趕走了。

Correct.

正確的。

And so I just think now that we hang rates, we have loyal customers and we're getting -- they have most of their household with us, but the hot money that might have been somewhere else at a different bank, I think customers are aggregating it with us. How long that continues to play out the way it is currently playing out? Not sure, but -- and again, a lot of that is coming from our rural markets.

因此，我認為現在我們維持利率，我們擁有忠實的客戶，而且我們得到了——他們的大部分家庭都在我們這裡，但熱錢可能在另一家銀行的其他地方，我認為客戶是與我們匯總。目前的情況會持續多久？不確定，但是——再說一次，其中很多來自我們的農村市場。

Okay. That's great. And I do want to catch up on the buyback. How did that appetite change across the quarter? Kind of just from the 10-year rising to where it did and you wanted to have a little bit more capital and is that -- does that leave you to think it could go up a little bit in terms of pace in the fourth quarter?

好的。那太棒了。我確實想趕上回購。這季度的偏好有何變化？就從 10 年的上漲到現在的水平，你想擁有更多的資本，這是否會讓你認為第四季的成長速度可能會有所上升？

Just actually -- I just changed the cap on the price at which we're buying back the stock. We were early in the quarter buying back at levels below $12.50. And towards the end, I said let's cap it at $12, so we would buy back. And at any given day, we're trading under $12 a share. That slows it down a little bit, probably so we keep some dry powder, but also because we want to be in a position with our sub debt to be able to call it. You recall we have 2 tranches of sub debt at the bank level, $50 million each. One of those tranches is already callable and has lost 20% of its Tier 2 treatment. And so we'd really like to be able to call -- be able to continue to build capital levels to be in a position to call that if we want to buy next June when we lose another 20% of Tier 2 capital treatment. That was the thinking behind that.

實際上——我剛剛改變了我們回購股票的價格上限。我們在本季初以低於 12.50 美元的價格回購。最後，我說讓我們將其上限限制在 12 美元，這樣我們就會回購。在任何一天，我們的交易價格都低於每股 12 美元。這會稍微減慢速度，可能是因為我們保留了一些乾粉，但也是因為我們希望能夠利用我們的次級債務來贖回它。您還記得我們在銀行層級有兩批級債務，每批 5,000 萬美元。其中一筆已經可以贖回，已經失去了 20% 的二級待遇。因此，我們真的希望能夠繼續建立資本水平，以便在明年 6 月我們失去另外 20% 的二級資本待遇時購買。這就是背後的想法。

Your next question is from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Matthew Breese。

Jim, in the press release, you noted that because of some excess liquidity this quarter, it impacted the NIM by, I think, 8 basis points. I was curious your thoughts on how much excess you're currently holding onto at period end? How long you intend to hold on to it? And if, with some of the margin dynamics you're talking about, there's also some normalization of liquidity in those assumptions?

吉姆，在新聞稿中，您指出，由於本季度流動性過剩，我認為它對淨利差影響了 8 個基點。我很好奇你對目前期末持有多少超額資金有何看法？你打算堅持多久？如果根據您所討論的一些保證金動態，這些假設中的流動性也存在一定程度的正常化？

Yes. It's been about $250 million of excess liquidity when we took on right after Silicon Valley Bank failed in the first quarter. We started to deploy some of that in the third quarter. I think got it down to about $160 million, but of excess, just excess cash. So when I say excess cash, that means we borrowed money from the FHLB and we parked it at the Fed. We're going to continue to, but though what we've been experiencing is deploying that cash into securities purchases, and we're going to continue to do that here for the rest of the year and into next year as well.

是的。當我們在矽谷銀行第一季倒閉後立即採取行動時，大約有 2.5 億美元的過剩流動性。我們在第三季開始部署其中的一些。我認為可以減少到大約 1.6 億美元，但多餘的只是多餘的現金。因此，當我說多餘現金時，這意味著我們從 FHLB 借錢並將其存放在美聯儲。我們將繼續這樣做，但儘管我們一直在將現金用於購買證券，但我們將在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續這樣做。

Okay. So maybe we should think put to work $40-ish million a quarter. Is that a fair way to think about it?

好的。因此，也許我們應該考慮每季投入 4000 萬美元左右。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？

Probably about right. Might be a little more than that. I think our securities portfolio for -- at least in last year, we were doing almost no purchases to let that run off so if redeployed in the loan growth and it was a good, profitable strategy, but it's gotten to a point where it's a little small in terms of a portion of total assets compared to peers. And so we'd like to get the size of the securities portfolio up a bit.

大概是對的。可能還不只一點。我認為我們的證券投資組合——至少在去年，我們幾乎沒有進行任何購買來讓其流失，所以如果在貸款增長中重新部署，這是一個很好的、有利可圖的策略，但它已經到了一個地步：與同業相比，其佔總資產的比例略小。因此，我們希望稍微擴大證券投資組合的規模。

Okay. That was actually on my list of questions. We're down to 11% securities to assets. But this quarter, obviously, a pop-up close to 6% period-to-period. Where would you ultimately like to be and over what time frame?

好的。這實際上在我的問題清單上。我們將證券與資產的比例降至 11%。但很明顯，本季年增幅接近 6%。您最終想去哪裡以及在什麼時間範圍內？

We don't have a hard target. We just know it's got to get bigger from here, I think, but not aggressively so. I think in our last projections, we were projecting it to grow by another $100 million next year. So it's not -- we're not going to go guns-a-blazing and buy $0.5 billion of securities next year, but we do want the portfolio to grow from where it is now.

我們沒有硬目標。我認為，我們只知道它必須從現在開始變得更大，但不是激進的。我認為在我們上次的預測中，我們預計明年它會再成長 1 億美元。所以，明年我們不會大舉購買 5 億美元的證券，但我們確實希望投資組合能夠在目前的基礎上成長。

Okay. I think accretable yields represented 10 bps of the NIM this quarter. It's always a hard-to-model figure. Could you just give us the most recent forecast there? How much of an impact every quarter you expect it to be on the NIM?

好的。我認為本季可增加的收益率佔淨利差的 10 個基點。它始終是一個難以建模的數字。您能給我們最新的預測嗎？您預計每季對 NIM 的影響有多大？

Yes. We think it's about 10 basis a year -- 10 basis points, and we're actually trying to make the point that accretable yield and the cash figures kind of offset each other. We think it's probably going to be about 7 basis points next quarter.

是的。我們認為每年大約是 10 個基點——10 個基點，我們實際上試圖表明可增加的收益率和現金數字可以相互抵消。我們認為下個季度可能會達到 7 個基點左右。

And 7 slowly declining to 5, is that a good estimation for 2024?

7 慢慢下降到 5，這是 2024 年的一個好的估計嗎？

It is. And I don't have the exact number in estimation for you for 2025 -- 2024 yet, I'll get you that next quarter, but it is fading out. So that's probably a fair assumption.

這是。我還沒有 2025 年至 2024 年的確切數字，我會在下個季度為您提供，但它正在逐漸消失。所以這可能是個合理的假設。

On the credit front, the one category I'm curious on is auto. There's been some more recent headlines that I think it's subprime auto delinquencies are starting to go higher. I wanted to know what your experience has been and if you see anything underneath the hood there that we should be incorporating into our models, higher charge-offs, delinquencies, things of that nature.

在信貸方面，我感興趣的一類是汽車。最近有一些頭條新聞，我認為次級汽車拖欠率開始上升。我想知道您的經歷是什麼，以及您是否看到了我們應該將其納入我們的模型中的任何內容，例如更高的沖銷、拖欠以及類似性質的事情。

Well, we only do auto in market. We had good experience through the last credit cycle and probably starting to hook a few more cars. But Brian, why don't you give them the rest of the story?

嗯，我們只在市場上做汽車。我們在上一個信貸週期中獲得了良好的經驗，並且可能開始吸引更多的汽車。但是布萊恩，你為什麼不告訴他們故事的其餘部分呢？

Yes. We have a prime business. We don't have subprime. As I mentioned earlier, delinquencies are up from quarter in June, 30 basis points to 40 basis points this quarter. We're watching it closely. We've got a very experienced leadership team in that business. They're managing the business well. The underwriting is tight. And we're going to continue to watch it, Matt. Thank you for your question.

是的。我們有一項主要業務。我們沒有次貸。正如我之前提到的，本季拖欠率比 6 月季度增加了 30 個基點至 40 個基點。我們正在密切關注。我們在該行業擁有一支經驗豐富的領導團隊。他們的業務管理得很好。承保很緊張。我們將繼續關注它，馬特。謝謝你的問題。

I also wanted to ask, just staying on the topic of credit, what is the size of your syndicated, if you have one, loan portfolio? How is the credit performance there? And how much of that, if you have any, is that of market?

我還想問一下，只停留在信貸主題上，如果您有銀團貸款組合，您的銀團貸款組合的規模是多少？那裡的信用表現如何？如果有的話，其中有多少是市場的？

Yes, so our -- so the SNC book is $90 million. It's down significantly over the past several years and it's performing fine.

是的，我們的 SNC 帳簿價值為 9000 萬美元。它在過去幾年中顯著下降，但表現良好。

Okay. And then I did want to touch on the specific reserve this quarter. It was based on a reappraisal. What was the credit? Was it a commercial real estate or commercial credit? And what were some of the primary factors that changed the appraisal enough where you had to put some money aside?

好的。然後我確實想談談本季的具體儲備。這是基於重新評估。信用是什麼？是商業房地產還是商業信貸？哪些主要因素足以改變評估結果，導致您不得不留出一些錢？

Brian?

布萊恩？

Yes. Thank you for your question. So this is an office property in the eastern part of the state, Central Business District. The loan was originated in 2018. In the pandemic, the property became 100% vacant. In 2021, we put it on nonaccrual. Our procedure is to get an annual appraisal and the appraisal value that came in most recently showed a significant decrease in value, so we add a specific reserve of $4.1 million. So the appraisal year-over-year reflected a 100 basis point increase in the cap rate, and as I mentioned earlier, the lease-up assumptions from the appraiser, the conclusion it would take a fairly long period of time to lease the property. That's why the value decreased.

是的。謝謝你的問題。這是位於該州東部中央商務區的辦公物業。該貸款起源於2018年。疫情期間，該房產100%空置。 2021 年，我們將其設為非應計利息。我們的程序是進行年度評估，最近的評估值顯示價值大幅下降，因此我們增加了 410 萬美元的特定儲備。因此，評估同比反映了資本化率增加了 100 個基點，正如我之前提到的，評估師的租賃假設，即需要相當長的時間才能租賃該房產的結論。這就是價值下降的原因。

I think we have just one additional nonaccrual borrower that is an office property. They're paying as agreed. It's a $2.2 million loan, and we feel pretty good about that one.

我認為我們只有一個額外的非應計借款人，即辦公物業。他們按照約定付款。這是一筆 220 萬美元的貸款，我們對此感覺非常好。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

The loan where you put aside a specific reserve this quarter, what's the total loan size? And how much are you now covered for on the reserve?

本季您預留專案準備金的貸款，貸款總額是多少？您現在的儲備金有多少？

The loan size is $12.6 million in the specific (inaudible).

具體貸款規模為 1260 萬美元（聽不清楚）。

I'm sorry, specifically, it's how much, 6.1?

抱歉，具體是多少，6.1？

It's $4 million is the specific reserve, the loan.

其中 400 萬美元是專款儲備金，即貸款。

Okay. Okay. Sorry for the pregnant pause. I'm just curious how much -- how confident are you in the $4 million reserve covering potential loss content there?

好的。好的。抱歉懷孕期間的停頓。我只是好奇你對 400 萬美元的儲備金覆蓋潛在損失內容的信心有多大？

We're as confident as the most recent appraisal, which is 1 month old. We continue to watch and monitor this. Should they find tenants or should they have a desire to sell the building, our special asset people will update the numbers and then we'll post up on a quarterly basis.

我們對 1 個月前的最新評估充滿信心。我們將繼續關注和監控這一情況。如果他們找到租戶或希望出售建築物，我們的特殊資產人員將更新數字，然後我們將每季發布一次。

Okay. Last one for me is just around M&A. You still have a pretty strong multiple relative to the group, and I'm curious if you're hearing more from your nearby peers that might not be in such a strong position, there's more conversations, whole bank or fee income?

好的。對我來說，最後一項是關於併購的。相對於該集團，你仍然擁有相當強大的倍數，我很好奇你是否從附近的同行那裡聽到了更多可能不那麼強勢的消息，有更多的對話，整個銀行或費用收入？

Yes, there's more whole bank, and there's definitely a lot more conversation than, I would say, in the last 5 years. And we talk to everybody. And people in the past have come to us a couple of times first, and that's been nice. We're a good partner, quite frankly, and we tend to do right by the people that partner with us, and they do well and we do well.

是的，與過去 5 年相比，整個銀行的規模更大了，而且對話肯定也多得多。我們與每個人交談。過去的人們已經來找過我們幾次，這很好。坦白說，我們是一個很好的合作夥伴，我們傾向於與我們合作的人做正確的事，他們做得很好，我們也做得很好。

I think we have a slide in our investor deck that shows how we've grown organically and with small M&A, generally $1 billion or less. And that's been very accretive to us over time. And those would be ideal transactions, kind of tongue in cheek, particularly a rural depository. And so you just don't know. And we're not overaggressive, but we do talk to everybody and it would be a great way to continue to supplement.

我認為我們的投資者平台中有一張幻燈片，展示了我們如何透過小型併購（通常為 10 億美元或更少）實現有機成長。隨著時間的推移，這對我們來說非常有幫助。這些都是理想的交易，有點開玩笑，尤其是農村存款機構。所以你只是不知道。我們並沒有過於激進，但我們確實與每個人交談，這將是繼續補充的好方法。

We can grow the bank. We've just flat out can. It's just you got to do it right, and you got to do it with low-cost funding. And Jane is all over that, trust me. So is that helpful?

我們可以發展銀行。我們已經完全可以了。只是你必須做得正確，而且你必須用低成本的資金來做這件事。相信我，簡就是這樣。那麼這有幫助嗎？

Very helpful, Mike. I appreciate it.

非常有幫助，麥克。我很感激。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Daniel Cardenas with Janney Montgomery Scott.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Daniel Cardenas 和 Janney Montgomery Scott。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered. Just kind of a couple of modeling questions here for you guys. What -- how should I think about your tax rate on a go-forward basis? I mean it's been fairly consistent here. Is that 20-ish percent still kind of a good run rate?

我的大部分問題都已被提出並得到解答。這裡只是向你們提出幾個建模問題。我該如何考慮你們的未來稅率？我的意思是這裡的情況相當一致。這 20% 左右的運行率仍然是一個不錯的運行率嗎？

It is about -- yes, it's 20.02%, but call it 20%.

它大約是——是的，它是 20.02%，但稱之為 20%。

Okay. And then, Jim, I missed your comments on fee income. I guess I can't multitask. Can you maybe just kind of quickly go through those again?

好的。然後，吉姆，我錯過了你對費用收入的評論。我想我不能同時處理多項任務。您能否快速回顧一下這些內容？

Yes, sure, Dan. I can't multitask either, by the way. But the fee income is -- we think it's relatively stable. There's -- next year, of course, we have the Durbin impact, right? So that's going to affect fee income, but we are looking at sources like growing SBA income to help offset that.

是的，當然，丹。順便說一句，我也不能同時處理多項任務。但我們認為費用收入相對穩定。當然，明年我們會有杜賓影響，對吧？因此，這將影響費用收入，但我們正在尋找諸如增加 SBA 收入之類的來源來幫助抵消這種影響。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO, Mr. Mike Price.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回給執行長麥克普萊斯先生。

We always appreciate your interest in our company and the opportunity to interact and hear what's on your mind. Thank you for your time today, and thank you.

我們始終感謝您對我們公司的興趣，並感謝您有機會互動並傾聽您的想法。感謝您今天抽出時間，謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。