快扣 (FAST) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Fastenal Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Ellen Stolts with Investor Relations. Ellen, you may now begin.

問候。歡迎參加 Fastenal 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係部的艾倫·斯托爾茨。艾倫，你可以開始了。

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. The call will last for up to 1 hour, and we'll start with a general overview of our quarterly results and operations with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.

歡迎參加 Fastenal 公司 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將由我們的總裁兼執行長丹·弗洛內斯和我們的財務長霍爾頓·劉易斯主持。本次電話會議時長最多為 1 小時，我們將首先概述季度業績和營運情況，剩餘時間將用於問答環節。

Today's conference call is a proprietary Fastenal presentation and is being recorded by Fastenal. No recording, reproduction, transmission or distribution of today's call is permitted without Fastenal's consent. This call is being audio simulcast on the Internet via the Fastenal Investor Relations home page, investor.fastenal.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website until December 1, 2019, at midnight Central Time.

今天的電話會議是 Fastenal 的專有演示，並由 Fastenal 進行錄音。未經 Fastenal 同意，不得對今天的通話進行任何錄音、複製、傳輸或分發。本次電話會議將透過 Fastenal 投資者關係主頁 investor.fastenal.com 在網路上進行音訊同步直播。網路直播的回放將在網站上提供，直至2019年12月1日中部時間午夜。

As a reminder, today's conference call may include statements regarding the company's future plans and prospects. These statements are based on our current expectations, and we undertake no duty to update them. It is important to note that the company's actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from anticipated results are contained in the company's latest earnings release and periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and we encourage you to review those factors carefully.

提醒各位，今天的電話會議可能涉及公司未來的計劃和前景。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。值得注意的是，公司的實際業績可能與預期業績有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素已包含在公司最新的收益報告和定期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，我們建議您仔細閱讀這些因素。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Florness.

現在我將把電話交給丹‧弗洛內斯先生。

Thanks, Ellen, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining the Q3 Fastenal Earnings Call.

謝謝艾倫，大家早安，謝謝各位參加 Fastenal 第三季財報電話會議。

Just a few observations on the business as I start out. This is no secret that the industrial marketplace has weakened in the last 12 months. The Blue Team has reacted. I am impressed with the group I call friends and associates. They are a talented group and had shined through this quarter.

在我剛開始涉足這個行業之際，先分享幾點看法。工業市場在過去12個月走弱，這已不是什麼秘密。藍隊已做出反應。我對我稱之為朋友和同事的這群人印象深刻。他們是一支很有才華的隊伍，在本季表現出色。

My next comment isn't really a trade secret. The third quarter of 2019 had 1 additional business day. We generated about $21 million per day in revenue. This helped our quarter. I was -- the sarcastic side of me was thinking that perhaps everybody on this call could petition our respective governments about modifying the global calendar to add 1 business day in every quarter going through would probably do more for our economy than all the silliness that we typically see coming out of our respective capitols. And I'll leave it at that. And no political party has a monopoly on ridiculousness.

我接下來要說的話其實不算是什麼商業機密。2019 年第三季比上一季多出 1 個工作天。我們每天的收入約為2100萬美元。這對我們季度的業績有所幫助。我當時——我諷刺的一面在想，或許參加這次電話會議的每個人都可以向各自的政府請願，修改全球日曆，在每個季度增加 1 個工作日，這可能比我們通常在各自首都看到的那些愚蠢舉動更有利於我們的經濟。我就說到這裡吧。任何政黨都不能壟斷荒謬行為。

All kidding aside, the supply chain for our customers has become more expensive in the last 1.5 years and more volatile. Our job is really straightforward. We provide supply chain solutions. We challenge the status quo with both our customer and with our supplier, and trust me, they reciprocate. That's a good, constructive balance, a good friction balance.

不開玩笑地說，在過去一年半的時間裡，我們客戶的供應鏈成本更高，波動性也更大。我們的工作其實很簡單。我們提供供應鏈解決方案。我們挑戰客戶和供應商的現狀，相信我，他們也會以同樣的方式回應我們。這是一個良好的、建設性的平衡，一個好的摩擦平衡。

Challenge sometimes means considering a different product. Our business model has an advantage here over many of our local competitors. Sometimes it means a different solution. As you know, from what you've learned about Fastenal over the years and prior quarters, we have many to offer. Fortunately, for us, many of our competitors are one-trick ponies, and this helps us win in this type of environment.

挑戰有時意味著考慮不同的產品。我們的商業模式在這裡比許多本地競爭對手更具優勢。有時這意味著需要不同的解決方案。正如您多年來以及前幾季對 Fastenal 的了解，我們有很多產品可以提供。幸運的是，我們的許多競爭對手只會一招鮮，這有助於我們在這種環境下取得勝利。

I never lose sight of the strength of an organization where our team, 75% of our employees have intimate knowledge of our customers' operation. They have knowledge of their local and business -- they have local and global business culture and the scale to stitch it together. This is more powerful than an abstract server study of customers' keystrokes that can only do fulfillment. I believe we can win, but we have to figure out where we win with that strategy, and I think the things that we do with our growth drivers played very well into understanding that advantage.

我始終銘記，我們團隊中 75% 的員工對客戶的營運有著深入的了解，這才是我們組織的優勢所在。他們了解本地和商業環境——他們擁有本地和全球商業文化，並且有能力將兩者結合起來。這比只能完成訂單履行任務的抽象的伺服器端客戶擊鍵研究更強大。我相信我們能夠獲勝，但我們必須弄清楚如何運用這種策略取得勝利，我認為我們利用成長驅動因素所做的事情，對我們理解這種優勢起到了非常積極的作用。

All that technology, though, does bring tremendous productivity wins, we are slowly introducing technology in our business. And I believe you see it shine through in our ability to manage the labor side of our business.

雖然所有這些技術確實帶來了巨大的生產力提升，但我們正在逐步將技術引入我們的業務中。我相信，您在我們管理公司勞動力方面的能力中就能看出這一點。

Getting to Holden's flipbook, we've reported earnings of $0.37. They were just about -- some discrete tax items in the quarter, in -- actually in both years. But adjusting for these, the EPS remained at $0.37. Pleased to see our pretax profit growth accelerate from, frankly, a disappointing second quarter.

霍頓的翻頁書顯示，其收益為 0.37 美元。實際上，這兩年都存在一些季度內的個別稅務項目。但調整這些因素後，每股盈餘仍為 0.37 美元。很高興看到我們的稅前利潤成長速度較令人失望的第二季度有所加快。

Two things stood out. First, the team executed nicely on pricing, which produced a better gross margin. It doesn't mean that we're not behind on the price/cost. And the goal isn't about who wins on the price/cost because this is a supply chain relationship between supplier -- between our supplier, our business and our customer, and we need a supply chain that works for all. So it's not about who wins. It's about who provides the best value to our customer.

有兩件事特別突出。首先，團隊在定價方面執行得很好，從而獲得了更高的毛利率。但這並不意味著我們在價格/成本方面沒有落後。而我們的目標並非在於誰在價格/成本上勝出，因為這是供應商、我們的企業和客戶之間的供應鏈關係，我們需要一個對所有人都有利的供應鏈。所以，關鍵不在於誰贏。關鍵在於誰能為我們的客戶提供最大的價值。

Secondly, our team adjusted really well to the slowing business kind of just as fast in the second quarter. We're just a little bit faster in the third to provide nice incremental margins. While at the same time, we continue to invest in the growth drivers of our business. That's one of the most important aspects of this, is we still have the resources to invest in growth.

其次，我們的團隊在第二季也很快適應了業務放緩的情況。我們在第三節稍微加快了一點速度，因此獲得了不錯的增量優勢。同時，我們將繼續投資於推動業務成長的因素。最重要的一點是，我們仍然有資源投資於成長。

Business conditions remains sluggish and our customer tone remains cautious. Very pleased with the cash generated during the year-to-date, the improvement during the period. My compliments to our team in the field. My compliments to Holden and Sheryl and their respective teams, performed really well on managing our working capital. And the nice thing about this page, in one page, we talked about 2 things that we haven't been able to talk about with confidence and maybe even some pride in recent years, and that is we performed well on gross margin and on working capital. But we still have work to do.

商業環境依然低迷，顧客情緒依然謹慎。對今年迄今產生的現金流以及在此期間的進步感到非常滿意。向現場團隊致以崇高的敬意。我要向霍爾頓和謝麗爾以及他們各自的團隊表示祝賀，他們在管理我們的營運資金方面做得非常出色。而這一頁的妙處在於，在一頁紙上，我們談到了近年來我們一直無法自信地、甚至有些自豪地談論的兩件事，那就是我們在毛利率和營運資本方面都表現出色。但我們仍有許多工作要做。

Onsites. We signed 84 in the quarter, a little bit less than second quarter. I think there's 2 things driving that. One, a lot of discussions during the quarter with customers centered on supply chain, challenging supply chain. Some of those discussions were about pricing. And also, in an environment like this, and we see it in our vending as well, when there's uncertainty in an environment, a natural human reaction is sometimes it's easier to not make a decision at all than to worry about what decision is the right one. And so we're seeing a -- saw a little bit of a slowdown.

現場。本季我們簽下了 84 人，比第二季略少。我認為有兩個因素導致了這種情況。第一季與客戶進行了很多關於供應鏈的討論，供應鏈面臨挑戰。其中一些討論是關於定價的。而且，在這樣的環境下（我們在自動販賣機產業也看到了這種情況），當環境充滿不確定性時，人們的自然反應有時是乾脆不做決定，而不是去擔心哪個決定才是正確的。因此，我們看到——看到了一些放緩的跡象。

But we're still at -- up 30% over where we were a year ago at 1,076 Onsites, and the business continues to grow in the low teens. And we believe we'll still sign between 375 to 400. It's a little bit more difficult of a goal than it would have been 3 months ago or 6 months ago. Only time will tell if that belief will be turning to reality. But we believe it's -- we can accomplish it.

但我們仍然比一年前成長了 30%，達到了 1,076 個現場服務點，而且業務繼續以 10% 的速度成長。我們相信最終簽約人數仍將在 375 至 400 人之間。與 3 個月前或 6 個月前相比，現在要實現這個目標要困難一些。只有時間才能證明這種信念是否會變成現實。但我們相信——我們能夠做到。

The one thing might jump out at you is we closed 22 traditional branches during the quarter. That's not a surprising number. We've been doing similar numbers of that over the last 4, 5, 6 years. But we did close 35 Onsites. I'm a firm believer -- some organizations sometimes -- not hide from the truth but hold back the truth and won't acknowledge things challenging the status quo. And as a result, they don't do anything, don't do anything and all of a sudden, do something big all at once and then spend all their efforts adjusting for the numbers to explain it to what was going on in the world.

最引人注目的一點是，我們本季關閉了 22 家傳統分行。這個數字並不令人驚訝。在過去 4、5、6 年裡，我們一直在做類似數量的事情。但我們確實關閉了 35 個現場服務點。我堅信──有些組織有時──不是迴避真相，而是隱瞞真相，也不願承認挑戰現狀的事物。結果，他們什麼都不做，突然間，一下​​子做了件大事，然後又竭盡全力去調整數據，以解釋當時世界上正在發生的事情。

We don't do that. We challenge the business every day. And if our team feels, along with their customer, there are some Onsites that don't make sense in today's environment, perhaps the business has slowed down, perhaps a plant has been consolidated, we want to understand the why on the standpoint of trends of our business, but I consider this a healthy thing.

我們不那樣做。我們每天都在挑戰企業。如果我們的團隊和客戶都覺得，在當今環境下，某些現場服務沒有意義，可能是因為業務放緩，也可能是因為工廠進行了整合，我們希望從業務趨勢的角度了解其中的原因，但我認為這是一件好事。

Vending. We continue to have a very good clip with vending. To me, the most noteworthy thing that stood out in our vending numbers, so our installed base is up 12.2% Q3 to Q3. Our product sales are up in the mid-teens. And I'm not really good at numbers, but I do know that means our revenue per machine increased in the 12-month period. I consider that a tremendous accomplishment in an economy where things have weakened and you would expect your revenue per machine to decrease a little bit.

自動販賣機。我們的自動販賣機業務持續保持著非常好的業績。對我來說，我們自動販賣機數據中最值得注意的一點是，我們的裝機量在第三季比第三季成長了 12.2%。我們的產品銷售額成長了十幾個百分點。我不太擅長數字，但我知道這意味著在過去 12 個月裡，我們每台機器的收入增加。我認為在經濟形勢疲軟、每台機器的收入預計會略有下降的情況下，這是一個了不起的成就。

I think there's 2 things that are shining through there. One, vending is about -- a lot of the stuff that goes through our vending machines is about PP&E, so stuff people need. We're in a high-employment environment. So there's still plenty of employees and employees need stuff. I think that's part of it. I think the other part is our team has become really dialed in at managing their vending asset base and utilizing that asset base to the benefit of their customer. And it means sometimes you put pull parts out, you put new parts in. And that -- those 2 things drive the fact that, that base of business actually expanded in a declining economy.

我認為有兩點特別突出。第一，自動販賣機銷售的商品──我們自動販賣機銷售的許多東西都是個人用品，也就是人們需要的東西。我們正處於高就業率環境。所以員工仍然很多，而員工需要各種東西。我認為這其中有一部分原因。我認為另一方面，我們的團隊已經非常擅長管理他們的自動販賣機資產，並利用這些資產為他們的客戶帶來利益。這意味著有時你需要把舊零件拆下來，換上新零件。正是這兩件事促成了這樣一個事實：在經濟衰退的情況下，該業務的基礎反而擴大了。

E-commerce was up about 28% Q3 to Q3. I consider that as a weaker number. One thing that shines through on that for me is a chunk of that e-commerce is the larger customers and a chunk of that was economically weakened.

第三季電子商務年增約 28%。我認為這是一個較弱的數字。對我來說，最突出的一點是，電子商務很大一部分客戶是大客戶，而其中一部分客戶的財務狀況已經惡化。

With that, I'll turn it over to Holden.

這樣，我就把麥克風交給霍爾頓了。

Great. Thanks, Dan. Good morning. Let's just jump on to Slide 5. Total sales were up 7.8% in the third quarter. Adjusting for the 1 more selling day in the period, our daily sales were up 6.1%, which is a deceleration from the second quarter. September daily sales growth was up 5.8%, which is fairly consistent with the July and August rates, but business activity has continued to soften. The leading Purchasing Managers' Index averaged 49.4 in the third quarter and it was 47.8 in September. Those are levels that are consistent with modest contraction in industrial production.

偉大的。謝謝你，丹。早安.我們直接來看第 5 張投影片。第三季總銷售額成長了 7.8%。考慮到該期間多了一個銷售日，我們的日銷售額成長了 6.1%，比第二季有所放緩。9 月日均銷售額成長 5.8%，與 7 月和 8 月的成長率基本一致，但商業活動持續疲軟。第三季主要採購經理人指數平均為 49.4，9 月為 47.8。這些水準與工業生產小幅萎縮相符。

Benchmark industrial production was up just 0.3% in the July-August period. The cautious tone is reflected in the feedback of our regional leaders and in the trends of our end markets. Manufacturing was up 7.7% and heavy equipment was up 4.4%. Oil and gas and industrial end markets are also softening, while transportation and consumer-linked customers are stable. Construction was up 2.9% in the third quarter with larger customers outperforming smaller ones.

7月至8月期間，基準工業生產僅成長0.3%。這種謹慎的態度體現在我們區域領導人的回饋以及我們終端市場的趨勢中。製造業成長7.7%，重型設備成長4.4%。石油天然氣和工業終端市場也在走軟，而交通運輸和消費相關客戶則保持穩定。第三季建築業成長2.9%，其中大型客戶的表現優於小型客戶。

We estimate the price in the third quarter contributed 90 to 120 bps during this period. From a product standpoint, non-fasteners continued to lead but did decelerate with 8% growth in the third quarter, while our more cyclical fastener line was up 3%. From a customer standpoint, National Accounts were up 10.2% in the quarter with 62 of our top 100 accounts growing. Non-National Account growth was less than 1% with roughly 57% of our branches growing in the third quarter.

我們估計第三季的價格在此期間貢獻了 90 至 120 個基點。從產品角度來看，非緊固件產品持續保持領先地位，但第三季增速放緩至 8%，而週期性較強的緊固件產品線則成長了 3%。從客戶角度來看，全國性客戶在本季成長了 10.2%，前 100 名客戶中有 62 名實現了成長。非國民帳戶成長率不到 1%，第三季我們約有 57% 的分公司實現了成長。

Our growth today is coming largely from the growth drivers, which only reinforces our commitment to them. Regardless of the market conditions, Fastenal provides a value to our customers and has a financial model that allows us to invest as others pull back and we intend to do so.

我們今天的成長主要來自於成長驅動因素，這只會更加堅定我們對這些因素的承諾。無論市場狀況如何，Fastenal 都能為我們的客戶創造價值，並且擁有能夠讓我們在其他人撤資時進行投資的財務模式，我們也打算這樣做。

Now moving over to Slide 6. Our gross margin was 47.2% in the third quarter, down 90 basis points versus last year. The components of this decline are familiar, product and customer mix, price/cost and transportation expense, plus the absence of the difficult comparison we had last quarter. However, the third quarter was also up 30 basis points versus the second quarter, which bucks the more traditional flat-to-down sequential pattern. This largely reflects moderation in the variables that impacted the second quarter.

現在來看第 6 張投影片。我們第三季的毛利率為 47.2%，比去年同期下降了 90 個基點。造成這次下滑的原因與以往類似，包括產品和客戶組合、價格/成本和運輸費用，以及上個季度難以比較的基數效應的消失。然而，第三季也比第二季上漲了 30 個基點，這與傳統的持平或下降的季度環比模式相反。這主要反映了影響第二季度的各種因素的緩和。

Mix drag was 70 to 80 basis points, narrowing a bit as Onsite growth rates slowed. Price/cost improved for the quarter as pricing efforts to offset tariffs and inflation gained traction. It's common for the fourth quarter gross margins to slip versus the third quarter as has happened in 4 of the last 5 years typically by 20 to 40 basis points. With the momentum we built in the third quarter, however, we anticipate being able to sustain our gross margin above 47% in the fourth quarter.

混合銷售拖累為 70 至 80 個基點，隨著現場銷售成長速度放緩，拖累縮小。本季價格/成本有所改善，因為抵銷關稅和通貨膨脹的定價措施取得了成效。第四季毛利率較第三季下滑是常見現象，過去 5 年中有 4 年都出現了這種情況，通常下滑幅度為 20 至 40 個基點。不過，憑藉我們在第三季建立的勢頭，我們預計第四季能夠將毛利率維持在 47% 以上。

Our operating margin was 20.4% in the third quarter, down 10 basis points year-over-year. SG&A as a percentage of sales was 26.8%, better by 80 basis points and a record low for the third quarter. We leveraged operating costs despite the slowdown in sales growth, aided a bit by an extra selling day in the period.

第三季我們的營業利益率為 20.4%，年減 10 個基點。銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為 26.8%，比上一季下降了 80 個基點，創第三季歷史新低。儘管銷售成長放緩，但由於該期間多了一個銷售日，我們還是有效控制了營運成本。

Looking at the pieces, we achieved 65 basis points of leverage over employee-related costs, which were up 4.2%. This growth was largely due to a 4.1% increase in FTE growth at the end of the period. We realized 20 basis points of leverage over occupancy-related costs, which were up 2.8%, comprised of higher vending expenses as we expand the installed base and flattish occupancy expenses. Conditions remain challenging, so we remain focused on adding resources as necessary to finance our growth drivers and support our ability to take market share while tightly managing other costs and investments.

從各項數據來看，我們在員工相關成本方面實現了 65 個基點的槓桿效應，而員工相關成本卻上漲了 4.2%。這一增長主要歸功於該期末 FTE 增長 4.1%。我們實現了對佔用相關成本 20 個基點的槓桿作用，這些成本上漲了 2.8%，其中包括隨著安裝基礎擴大而增加的自動販賣機費用和基本持平的佔用費用。市場環境仍然充滿挑戰，因此我們將繼續專注於根據需要增加資源，為我們的成長動力提供資金，並支持我們獲取市場份額的能力，同時嚴格控制其他成本和投資。

If you put it all together, we reported third quarter 2019 EPS of $0.37, which is up 8% from $0.34 in the third quarter of 2018. As Dan mentioned, we did have discrete tax benefits in both the current and prior year periods. And if you include a $3.6 million benefit in the third -- including a $3.6 million benefit in the third quarter of 2019. If you adjust for these, third quarter 2019 EPS remained $0.37, up 7.3%.

綜合來看，我們公佈的 2019 年第三季每股收益為 0.37 美元，比 2018 年第三季的 0.34 美元增加了 8%。正如丹所提到的那樣，我們在本年度和上一年度都獲得了具體的稅收優惠。如果算上第三季的 360 萬美元收益——包括 2019 年第三季的 360 萬美元收益。如果將這些因素考慮在內，2019 年第三季每股收益仍為 0.37 美元，成長 7.3%。

Turning to Slide 7. Looking at cash flow. We generated $257 million in operating cash in the third quarter or 121% of net income. Higher earnings combined with lower working capital needs to produce the cash flow. Year-to-date cash conversion is 96.4%. Net capital spending in the third quarter was $60 million, up from $35 million in the third quarter of 2018. This continues to reflect investments in hub property and vehicles that are necessary to support high service levels as well as investments in vending equipment to support growth in our installed base.

翻到第 7 張投影片。查看現金流。第三季度，我們產生了 2.57 億美元的營運現金流，佔淨利的 121%。更高的獲利能力加上更低的營運資金需求，就能產生現金流。今年迄今的現金轉換率為 96.4%。第三季淨資本支出為 6,000 萬美元，高於 2018 年第三季的 3,500 萬美元。這持續反映了我們對樞紐物業和車輛的投資，這些投資對於維持高水準的服務至關重要；同時，我們也對自動販賣機設備進行了投資，以支持我們現有客戶群的成長。

Our 2018 range for total capital spending is unchanged between $195 million and $225 million with the same factors driving the third quarter increase impacting the full year. We also paid out $126 million in dividends in the period and reduced debt by $55 million. We finished the quarter with debt at 14.7% of total capital, in line with last year's 14.4% but down sequentially and from year-end.

我們 2018 年的總資本支出範圍保持不變，介於 1.95 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間，推動第三季成長的因素同樣影響了全年。在此期間，我們還支付了 1.26 億美元的股息，並減少了 5,500 萬美元的債務。本季末，我們的債務佔總資本的 14.7%，與去年同期的 14.4% 持平，但季減，且較上年末下降。

Inventories were up 13.4% in the third quarter of 2019. Nearly half of this growth related to inventory to support new Onsites. The remainder relates to higher hub inventories. We plan for growth in inventory to slow meaningfully in the fourth quarter as actions taken earlier in 2019 to reduce overseas purchasing in response to slower demand begins to be felt.

2019年第三季庫存成長13.4%。其中近一半的成長與支援新現場服務的庫存有關。其餘部分與樞紐庫存增加有關。我們預計，隨著 2019 年初為應對需求放緩而採取的減少海外採購的措施開始顯現效果，庫存成長將在第四季度顯著放緩。

Accounts receivable grew 5.8% in the third quarter of 2019. Receivables benefited from slower growth and the timing of quarter end. If I try to adjust for the latter, we estimate that receivables growth would have been roughly 7.5% with a roughly half-day increase in DSO, the slowest rates of increase since the first half of 2017.

2019年第三季應收帳款成長5.8%。應收帳款受益於成長放緩和季度末的時間節點。如果我嘗試對後者進行調整，我們估計應收帳款成長率約為 7.5%，DSO 大約增加半天，這是自 2017 年上半年以來最慢的成長速度。

Our customers continue to aggressively pursue longer payment terms and withhold payment at quarter's end. We expect growth in our working capital assets to be more modest in the fourth quarter than it was in the third, producing another strong cash flow quarter.

我們的客戶繼續積極爭取更長的付款期限，並在季度末拒付貨款。我們預計第四季營運資本資產的成長將比第三季更為溫和，從而帶來另一個強勁的現金流季度。

That's all we have for our formal presentation. So with that, operator, we'll take questions.

這就是我們正式報告的全部內容。那麼，操作員，我們開始接受提問。

Before we switch over to questions, last time, when I was flipping through Holden's book, one thing that hopefully stands out on these calls is Dan is completely unscripted, which probably makes for a frustrating listen from an audience perspective. Holden is nicely scripted, so you get maybe the how from Dan, but you get the what and the meat from Holden, and that's a good one-two punch.

在我們進入問答環節之前，上次我翻閱霍爾頓的書時，希望大家能注意到，這些電話會議中有一點很突出，那就是丹完全沒有稿子，從聽眾的角度來看，這可能會讓人感到沮喪。霍爾頓這個角色寫得很好，所以你可能從丹那裡了解到“如何做”，但你從霍爾頓那裡了解到“做什麼”和“實質內容”，這真是一記漂亮的組合拳。

There was an item that I added into the notes of my flipbook last night that I didn't want to throw out there because I thought I might get a question on it and I didn't want to give you unsatisfactory answers. I thought I'd preempt you.

昨晚我在我的翻頁書筆記中添加了一項內容，我不想把它寫出來，因為我覺得可能會有人問到它，而我不想給你不滿意的答案。我想先發制人。

That is -- the one item in the quarter that kind of makes me scratch my head is our construction business. And we had enjoyed nice growth in construction over the last several years. That growth has slowed dramatically as we've come into 2019. And in all honesty, we don't completely understand it. It's 2 worlds there. Our large account business continues to grow well. Our local business isn't growing as well. And some of that, you can attribute to the fact that we closed about 5% of our locations a year. So that's going to take a toll on the local construction business, but that's not a new phenomenon. We've been doing that for 4, 5 years.

也就是說──本季最讓我百思不得其解的一件事就是我們的建築業務。過去幾年，我們的建築業發展勢頭良好。進入 2019 年後，這種成長速度已大幅放緩。說實話，我們並不完全理解它。那裡彷彿有兩個世界。我們的大客戶業務持續保持良好成長動能。我們當地的業務發展並不理想。部分原因在於我們每年關閉約 5% 的門市。所以這將對當地建築業造成影響，但這並不是什麼新鮮事。我們已經這樣做了四、五年了。

There is some slowing in our local construction business that I had pointed out to you. I've given you an unsatisfactory answer that we don't completely understand it. I do know from talking to peers and other organizations, and I know a number of folks and organizations that sell into this arena. In the large account business, they're not really seeing it, but they are seeing it in the smaller account business as well. And so it's more of an observation than a conclusion. I apologize for that, but I thought I'd point it out.

我之前已經跟你提過，我們當地的建築業出現了一些放緩的跡象。我給你的答案並不令人滿意，因為我們還沒有完全理解。我從與同行和其他組織的交流中了解到，我也認識一些在這個領域銷售產品的個人和組織。在大客戶業務中，他們並沒有真正感受到這種現象，但在小型客戶業務中，他們感受到了這種現象。所以這與其說是結論，不如說是一種觀察。對此我深表歉意，但我還是想指出。

Anyway, with that, we'll turn it over to questions. (Operator Instructions)

好了，接下來我們將進入提問環節。（操作說明）

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of David Manthey with Robert W. Baird.

（操作說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 David Manthey 和 Robert W. Baird 的系列。

First off, can you talk about additional price increases that you may be thinking about in the fourth quarter to offset additional tariff-related COGS inflation?

首先，您能否談談您在第四季可能考慮的額外提價措施，以抵銷與關稅相關的銷售成本上漲？

Sure. The -- so as you know, there's going to be another round of tariffs that go into place in mid-October, and then there'll be another round in mid-December. Our intention is, as we get into the latter part of this quarter, that we will adjust our pricing and our pricing tools to reflect the changes that are coming because of those tariffs. So I think you can expect us to take action on those should they ultimately materialize in the latter part of this quarter.

當然。如你所知，10月中旬將實施新一輪關稅，12月中旬也將實施另一輪關稅。我們的目標是，隨著本季進入後半段，我們將調整定價和定價工具，以反映這些關稅帶來的變化。所以我認為，如果這些問題最終在本季後半段成為現實，我們將採取相應行動。

Okay. And second, it's a small percentage, I know, but I'm hoping you can provide more details on the 35 Onsite closures. Were these purely chance or cyclical customer issues rather than a bad fit or some sort of competitive loss? Is there anything you can share with us regarding that? Or is there anything you learned from those closures that will help you better that potential customers for Onsite implementations in the future?

好的。其次，我知道這只是很小一部分，但我希望您能提供更多關於 35 家現場關閉機構的詳細資訊。這些純粹是偶然事件或週期性客戶問題，而不是產品不匹配或某種競爭劣勢？關於這方面，您有什麼可以跟我們分享的嗎？或者，您從這些失敗的案例中學到了什麼，可以幫助您在未來更好地服務潛在客戶，為他們提供現場實施服務？

Sure. Yes. It's -- the quick answer is probably a little bit of all of the above. But you're right, Dave. I mean we closed more this quarter than we've typically done, and I think there's a couple of things to think about here. One is simply the installed base has gone up. And as the installed base goes up, there's going to be a natural degree of churn that happens.

當然。是的。簡單來說，可能是以上所有情況都有一點。但你說得對，戴夫。我的意思是，我們本季的成交量比平常要多，我認為這裡有幾點值得思考。其一是用戶基數擴大了。隨著用戶基數的增加，自然會出現一定程度的用戶流失。

And so the fact that -- it's a high number, but frankly, the 3 or 4 quarters that preceded this quarter were higher than the ones before that. And so there's an element simply of it's become a big part of our business. We have a lot of them out there. It's going to be a natural element of churn that goes up over time.

所以，雖然這個數字很高，但坦白說，本季之前的 3 或 4 個季度都比再之前的幾季要高。因此，這在某種程度上已經成為我們業務的重要組成部分。我們有很多這樣的產品。隨著時間的推移，人員流動自然會加劇。

But the second piece is you're right. As we've achieved a degree of critical mass in that initiative, the reviews, we always review our business, not only in Onsites but elsewhere. But we get more active in terms of reviewing the businesses that we have as we get critical mass, as we have more aged facilities.

但第二點是，你是對的。由於我們在這項措施中已經達到了一定的規模，因此我們會不斷進行評估。我們始終會評估我們的業務，不僅在現場評估中，而且在其他地方也會進行評估。但隨著我們規模的擴大，以及老舊設施的增多，我們會更加積極地審查我們擁有的業務。

And if I look at the 35 that we closed in this quarter, I was able to get a good explanation of about 27 of them, just to let you know. And if I look at that, there's a handful where the plant closed. There's a handful where the model changed, right, where we opened the Onsite because a purchasing manager liked the model, and that purchasing manager has now moved on. A new one's in place and doesn't like the model as much. And so they changed it. And so there's a few of those. There are a few where we lost some business to competitors. Usually, that's because they decided to go for maybe better pricing scheme or what have you, but those do exist.

如果我看一下本季我們完成的 35 筆交易，我能夠對其中大約 27 筆交易做出很好的解釋，特此告知。如果我查看一下，我會發現有少數工廠已經關閉。有少數案例中，模式發生了變化，對吧？我們開設現場採購部門是因為採購經理喜歡這種模式，而那位採購經理現在已經離開了。新來的那個人不太喜歡這種模式。於是他們就改了。所以，這樣的例子還有一些。有些業務我們因為競爭對手而損失了一些。通常情況下，這是因為他們決定採用更優惠的定價方案或其他方案，但這種情況確實存在。

Or somebody new in their procurement function.

或是採購部門新來的那位。

Or somebody new in their procurement function, right? So those elements do exist. They've existed every quarter before this. Now I will also say there were 11 Onsites that, frankly, we closed them because maybe the financials didn't play out as we would have expected. In fact, if I look at those 11 Onsites, they're running about 20,000 a month. That's well below what we need to have in order to make that model make sense.

或是採購部門新來的人，對吧？所以這些因素確實存在。此前每個季度都存在這種情況。現在我還要說，坦白講，我們關閉了 11 個現場項目，因為財務狀況可能沒有達到我們的預期。事實上，如果我看一下這 11 個現場服務點，它們每月大約運作 20,000 次。這遠低於使該模型成立所需的數量。

And so we wound up closing that Onsite, but in 9 of those 11 cases, that business moved back to the branch that's nearby, right? So it's not lost business even though it is a closed Onsite. But the financial decision is better at the branch than it was at Onsite in those cases.

因此，我們最終關閉了那家現場服務點，但在這 11 個案例中，有 9 個案例的業務都轉移到了附近的網點，對吧？所以即使門市關閉，也不會造成業務損失。但在這些情況下，在分行做出的財務決策比在現場做出的更好。

So I think the perspective that you have to have here is we always review our business. And as the base goes up, I think closures will go up as well. But that said, I think that this quarter was pretty high. I don't expect to see that level of closings in the fourth quarter. And even at that high level, we're talking about roughly 3% of our installed base. I mean not a big number, so -- which I think you kind of commented. So that's probably how I'd respond to that.

所以我認為你需要有的視角是，我們始終要檢視自己的業務。隨著房價上漲，我認為關門歇業的案件也會增加。但即便如此，我認為本季的業績還是相當高的。我預計第四季不會出現如此大規模的房屋倒閉。即使以這個高比例計算，也只占我們安裝基數的大約 3%。我的意思是，這個數字並不大，所以——我想你已經評論過了。所以，這大概就是我對這件事的回應。

I'll add just -- I have been there, Dave, and that is if you think about growth drivers, if you think about our business in general, we consider this a healthy part of the business. Take our National Accounts business as an example. I know based on history that when we come into a new year, I can assume that 5% of our National Account revenue from last year will be gone, not because we lost a customer, but because across those thousands of locations, there were special projects going on in 2019 that won't happen in 2020.

我還要補充一點——戴夫，我經歷過這種情況，如果你考慮成長動力，如果你考慮我們整個業務，我們認為這是業務中健康的一部分。以我們的全國客戶業務為例。根據歷史經驗，我知道進入新的一年後，我們可以預見，去年全國客戶收入的 5% 將會消失，這並非因為我們失去了客戶，而是因為在數千個地點，2019 年開展了一些特殊項目，而這些項目在 2020 年將不會再進行。

And so if we want to grow our National Accounts business, and I'll just pick an arbitrary number, if we want to grow our National business 15%, we have to go into the year with a plan to hit 20% because we know we'll -- we're starting down 5%. When I think of our vending business, this year, we will pull out about 13% of our vending machines based on our installed base, and that's been true for years.

因此，如果我們想發展全國客戶業務，我隨便舉個例子，如果我們想讓全國客戶業務成長 15%，我們就必須在年初制定一個達到 20% 的計劃，因為我們知道——我們一開始會下降 5%。就我們的自動販賣機業務而言，今年我們將根據已安裝的自動販賣機數量撤出約 13%，這種情況已經持續多年了。

Actually, if I go back 5 years ago, we were pulling out about 25% of our installed base every year from the prior year because we put in 10, we realized we needed 8. We put in 2, we realized that wasn't a great place to put vending. And we improved the business. Over the last decade, we've pulled out north of 40,000 vending machines from locations where we've installed them.

實際上，如果回顧 5 年前，我們每年都會減少大約 25% 的已安裝設備，因為我們安裝了 10 台，後來發現只需要 8 台；又安裝了 2 台，後來發現那裡並不是放置自動售貨機的理想位置。我們改善了業務。過去十年間，我們已經從安裝地點撤出了超過 4 萬台自動販賣機。

And what do we have to show for it? We have a business that went from 0 to -- we'll do about $1.1 billion through vending this year. It helps our overall organization grow faster. It's a nice, discrete business in and of itself. And -- but I know that every time we place 10 machines or so, like we're going to pull a few of them back. And I love the business. I love the fact that we're always rationalizing.

我們最終得到了什麼成果？我們的業務從零發展到—今年我們將透過自動販賣機實現約 11 億美元的收入。它有助於我們整個組織更快地發展。它本身就是一個很不錯的、低調的生意。而且——但我知道，每次我們放置 10 台左右的機器時，我們都會撤回其中的一些。我熱愛這個行業。我喜歡我們總是為自己的行為找理由這一點。

I don't know ultimately, like on the Onsite, what is the churn rate. But I don't know. Maybe 5% a year is the number. And I hope I don't see that number on a report that comes out now that Florness thinks he'll be able do this. But I'm just saying it's a business and you approach it from a pragmatic business perspective, what's a win for your customer, what's a win for your team and what's a win for the future of the business as well. And we love the Onsite business, and we think a healthy look at it is a good thing.

我最終也不知道，就像在現場一樣，客戶流失率是多少。但我不知道。或許每年5%就是這個數字。我希望在弗洛內斯認為自己能夠做到這一點之後，不會在即將發布的報告中看到這個數字。但我的意思是，這是一門生意，你要從務實的商業角度來看它，想想什麼對客戶有利，什麼對團隊有利，什麼對企業的未來有利。我們熱愛現場服務業務，我們認為對其進行健康的審視是件好事。

The next question is from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Good detail on the first couple of questions there. Yes. So just wanted maybe just to address kind of what we've seen out there in a bit more detail. I feel like September was a weaker month more broadly, yet you saw a nice uptick in September sequentially. So you didn't seem to see that, although you are talking about a greater proportion of National Accounts, customers are declining.

前幾個問題的回答都很詳細。是的。所以，我只是想更詳細地談談我們目前看到的情況。我覺得九月整體表現比較疲軟，但九月的環比卻出現了不錯的成長。所以你似乎沒有意識到，儘管你談到了國民帳戶佔比的增加，但客戶數量卻在下降。

So I'm just wondering if you can maybe just dig into sort of feedback you're hearing from branch managers. And then more specifically, you called out, I think, last quarter weakness in heavy industry and oil and gas. You didn't call that out this quarter. So I'm just wondering what you're seeing in those 2 areas.

所以我想知道您是否可以深入調查您從分行經理那裡聽到的反饋意見。更具體地說，我認為你指出了上個季度重工業和石油天然氣行業的疲軟。本季你沒有提到這一點。所以我想知道你在那兩個領域看到了什麼。

Sure. So yes, the September number was a little bit below where July and August was. I would agree that they were substantively in the same range. But we did do a little bit better with pricing in the quarter obviously, and I think that, that kind of moved through as the quarter went on as well. I don't think I'm going to get into disclosing month-by-month kind of what we think the pricing was. But I think it's fair to conclude that they got better as the quarter progressed. And that probably -- you probably saw a little bit of a decline in -- or a backing up in volume growth filled in a little bit by an improvement in the pricing side.

當然。是的，9 月的數字比 7 月和 8 月略低。我同意它們實質上處於同一範圍內。但顯然，我們本季在定價方面做得更好一些，而且我認為，隨著本季的進行，這種情況也逐漸好轉。我不認為我會透露我們認為每個月的具體定價情況。但我認為可以合理地得出結論，隨著本季的進行，他們的表現有所改善。而且，你可能已經看到銷量成長略有下降或放緩，而價格方面的改善在一定程度上彌補了這一缺口。

And I think that was probably an element of it because if I think about the markets, yes, they're getting softer and that probably doesn't surprise anybody. And you're right, I didn't call out oil and gas and heavy machineries specifically. Building, it almost goes without saying at this point. But those areas are weak. The industrial manufacturing sector broadly is weak. And I kind of feel like volume for us outside of our market share gains is probably in the area of flattish. And that's where we've gotten to at this point.

我認為這可能是其中一個因素，因為如果我思考市場，是的，它們正在變軟，這可能不會讓任何人感到驚訝。你說得對，我並沒有特別指石油天然氣和重型機械產業。這一點幾乎無需贅言。但這些領域比較薄弱。工業製造業整體疲軟。我覺得除了市場佔有率的成長之外，我們的銷售量可能基本上持平。這就是我們目前所處的階段。

In terms of feedback from the RVP groups, it's probably what you would expect. Most are talking about tone being cautious, much as they have been. They did call out, obviously, oil and gas, heavy equipment. We've talked a bit before about some of the automotive. We don't have a lot of direct exposure in automotive. Very little, if any. But indirectly, some of the regions that are there have certainly called that out. I'm not sure that I'm adding any markets to the list that are soft, but I'm not seeing anything getting better either. And so it's still a bit of a challenge.

就 RVP 小組的回饋而言，這可能正是你所預期的。大多數人都在談論語氣要謹慎，就像他們一直以來那樣。他們顯然提到了石油和天然氣、重型設備。我們之前已經稍微聊過一些汽車方面的話題。我們在汽車產業並沒有太多直接投資。幾乎沒有，或者根本沒有。但間接地，一些地區確實已經指出了這一點。我不確定我是否將任何疲軟的市場添加到清單中，但我也沒看到任何好轉的跡象。所以這仍然是個挑戰。

What I will say is I think some of the commentary from the RVPs were got added in, in the last month or 2. A little bit more discussion about seeing some layoffs in their markets, a little bit more discussion about seeing people deciding or choosing to defer spending decisions. I would say those really begin to creep into the dialogue in the last quarter or 2. I think -- I just think it feeds this narrative that conditions, they're not spiraling out of control by any means, but they continue to soften up in our marketplace.

我想說的是，我認為區域副總裁們的一些評論是在過去一兩個月添加的。他們更多地討論了各自市場出現的一些裁員情況，也更多地討論了人們決定或選擇推遲消費決策的情況。我認為這些因素在最後兩季才真正​​開始滲透到對話中。我認為這強化了一種說法，即市場狀況雖然遠未失控，但確實在持續改善。

Great. That's great color. And then just on the gross margin. You've kind of preemptively went out with a 47% number for 4Q. Obviously, that's at top of our minds. I understand -- just given your turns and the timing of tariffs, the 25% List 3 start to filter into your P&L in 4Q. So I'm just curious, if you are seeing that incremental inflation, what could be the offsets to that?

偉大的。顏色真好看。然後就毛利率而言。你提前透露了第四季的成長率為 47%。顯然，這是我們最關心的問題。我明白了——考慮到你們的輪班安排和關稅生效時間，25% 的第三類關稅將在第四季開始影響你們的損益表。所以我很好奇，如果你看到了這種漸進式通貨膨脹，那麼可能有哪些因素可以抵銷這種通貨膨脹呢？

Well, remember, the List 3 tariffs went into place initially, I think, in December of 2018, and then there was an increase in the number in March of '19. Those -- frankly, the costs of those actions were largely in our 3Q. I know -- I think I know what you're talking about. We have turns of 2x.

嗯，請記住，清單 3 的關稅最初是在 2018 年 12 月生效的，然後 2019 年 3 月數量有所增加。坦白說，這些行動的成本主要體現在我們的第三季。我知道——我想我知道你在說什麼。我們有 2 倍的輪次。

But remember, tariffs are a little bit different and that it's not about when you purchase the products. It's about when they hit the shores. And so if our 6 months sort of supply chain lag is 3 months overseas and on the water and 3 months domestically, then the impact from tariffs, you're going to feel that once it hits the shore from that period to the time that it flows through the network, and that's really more like 3 months. So the List 3 tariffs, those costs were largely in 3Q. I don't anticipate an incremental impact in 4Q from the List 3 tariffs.

但請記住，關稅略有不同，而且與何時購買產品無關。故事講述的是他們抵達海岸的那一刻。因此，如果我們的 6 個月供應鏈滯後時間為 3 個月在海外和海上，3 個月在國內，那麼關稅的影響，一旦貨物到達岸邊，從這段時間到貨物流經整個網絡的時間，你就會感受到，而這實際上更像是 3 個月。因此，第三類關稅的成本主要集中在第三季。我不認為第三類關稅清單會在第四季產生額外的影響。

On List 4, those go into play in October and then again in December if they ultimately go through. And I expect that those costs would then roll forward into the first quarter of next year. And we'll adjust our business ahead of that to make sure that we're neutral on it.

第四類案件將於 10 月進行審理，如果最終獲得通過，則將於 12 月再次進行審理。我預計這些成本將會延續到明年第一季。在此之前，我們會調整業務，以確保我們對此保持中立。

So our intention is obviously not to fall behind based on sort of what the new tariffs are. But I think I want to emphasize as well, Nigel, when we fell behind, it had a lot more to do with general inflation in the marketplace than it did with the tariffs.

所以，我們的目標顯然是不會因為新的關稅政策而落後。但我想強調的是，奈傑爾，當我們落後時，這與市場上的普遍通貨膨脹有關，而不是與關稅有關。

Now I think general inflation was sort of goosed by the tariffs, if you will. But it wasn't so much the tariffs that presented a challenge to us as it was the generalized inflation. And I think the change of approach that we've taken in recent months in 3 areas: one, the group has new information and new tools in the field that they didn't have 18 months ago. We have a new structure internally dealing with our pricing and our costing versus what we had 18 months ago. And I think that structure, the people involved in that structure and its oversight, I think, are doing a phenomenal job.

現在我認為，關稅在某種程度上刺激了整體通貨膨脹。但真正帶給我們挑戰的並非關稅，而是普遍的通貨膨脹。我認為，近幾個月來，我們在三個方面採取了不同的方法：第一，該團隊擁有了 18 個月前所沒有的新資訊和新工具。與 18 個月前相比，我們內部在定價和成本會計方面採用了新的結構。我認為，這個組織架構、參與其中的人員以及監督機制，都做得非常好。

And then just the muscle memory that's been built up in the field, again, very different from what existed 18 months ago. And so I think our capabilities now versus what existed 18 months ago are far stronger. I think the execution and speed of what you saw in 3Q reflects that. And I think we can manage what comes as effectively today as we've been able to at any point in this period. But I don't anticipate tariffs being an incremental drag to 4Q relative to 3Q at this point.

此外，在實戰中形成的肌肉記憶，也與 18 個月前的情況大不相同。因此，我認為我們現在的能力比 18 個月前要強得多。我認為你在第三季看到的執行力和速度就體現了這一點。我認為，我們今天能夠像這段時期內的任何時候一樣有效地應對各種情況。但就目前而言，我預計關稅不會對第四季業績造成比第三季更大的拖累。

I'll just throw...

我直接丟…

As Holden was talking, I was just flipping through some stats here on the components of our business just to shed a little additional light on the first question about heavy equipment.

在霍爾頓說話的時候，我正在翻閱一些關於我們業務組成部分的統計數據，以便對關於重型設備的第一個問題提供一些額外的說明。

If I look at heavy manufacturing, now heavy equipment is a subset of that, if I look at heavy manufacturing as a business, that's about -- it's between 35% and 40% of our revenue. So it's a big swap of our revenue. That was growing about 13.5% in the first quarter. That dropped to a little over 8% in the second quarter and it was about 6% in the third quarter. So it mirrors up pretty well what our reported number is.

如果我審視重型製造業，重型設備是其中的一個子集，如果我把重型製造業作為一個整體來看待，它大約占我們收入的 35% 到 40%。所以，這相當於我們收入的重大調整。第一季成長了約13.5%。第二季這一比例降至略高於 8%，第三季約為 6%。所以它與我們公佈的數字基本上吻合。

If I look at heavy equipment subset in there, which is about 2/3 of that component, it's about 27% of our revenue. 13.5% in the first quarter, so in line with the overall heavy manufacturing. 7.5% in the second quarter. So it was starting to pull down the overall heavy manufacturing group. It dropped to 4.5% in the third quarter. So 2 things jumped out of that. That's a lot of OEM fasteners and there are a lot of production in there that weakened as we went through the year.

如果我看一下其中的重型設備子集，它大約佔該部分的 2/3，約占我們收入的 27%。第一季成長13.5%，與整體重工業發展趨勢一致。第二季成長7.5%。所以它開始拖累整個重工業集團。第三季降至4.5%。從中可以得出兩點結論。那可是大量的原廠緊固件，而且其中許多產品的產量在一年中逐漸下降。

The interesting thing is that there was a divergence between the 2/3 of the heavy manufacturing, that's heavy equipment, and the 1/3 that isn't. There's a divergence in there's more resiliency in the other group. So the overall number isn't declining as much. And I go into the weeds and get a little wonky only from the standpoint of -- that demonstrates what our team is doing, our National Accounts team, our regional teams are doing. That's market share gains.

有趣的是，重工業的三分之二（即重型設備）與其餘三分之一（即非重型設備）之間存在差異。不同之處在於，另一組人的韌性更強。所以總體數量並沒有大幅下降。我深入細節，甚至有點離題，只是從這個角度來看——這表明我們的團隊、我們的全國客戶團隊、我們的區域團隊正在做什麼。這是市場佔有率的成長。

We're picking up great market share there because our customers are struggling right now, and it shines through in our heavy manufacturing. It shines through in some of the stats that Holden puts out as far as our top 100 customers. How many are growing with us? All that kind of information really sheds light.

由於我們的客戶目前處境艱難，我們在那裡獲得了很大的市場份額，這一點在我們的重工業製造中體現得尤為明顯。從霍頓公佈的前 100 位客戶的一些統計數據中可以看出這一點。有多少人與我們共同成長？所有這些資訊都很有啟發性。

Our next question is from the line of Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞安·默克爾和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

So on gross margin, just a follow-up. So if you do a little bit better than 47% in fourth quarter, that would be a year-over-year decline of like 56 bps. So how should we think about the components of mix, price/cost and freight?

關於毛利率，我再補充一點。所以，如果第四季業績略好於 47%，那將比去年同期下降約 56 個基點。那我們該如何考慮產品組合、價格/成本和運費這幾個組成部分呢？

I think at that point, so the freight comparables will get easier, though obviously our goal as a company is not rest on comparables but actually execute the freight side better. But at minimum, the freight comparables get easier. And so I'm not expecting a big drag on freight. I think that will be -- I think that impact will be diminished.

我認為到那時，貨運方面的可比性分析就會變得更容易，但顯然我們公司的目標不是依靠可比性分析，而是真正更好地執行貨運方面的工作。但至少，貨運對比變得更容易了。因此，我預計貨運不會受到太大影響。我認為那將會——我認為那種影響將會減弱。

The real question mark there is -- ultimately, there is a cyclical element. How much does our revenue go up or go down based on sort of the macro? But that's the expectation right now, which means that most of what I would expect you to see is going to be related to the product-to-customer mix. I think if you look at the cadence of price/cost, it's one of those things where I think the number for the quarter isn't terribly meaningful because pre-quarter and post-quarter were 2 very different numbers depending on the timing of when you were able to enact the strategy that we enacted.

真正的疑問在於──歸根究底，這是一個循環往復的過程。根據宏觀經濟情勢，我們的收入會上升還是下降多少？但目前來看，情況就是這樣，這意味著我預計你們看到的大部分內容都將與產品與客戶的組合有關。我認為，如果你觀察價格/成本的節奏，你會發現季度數字的意義並不大，因為季度前和季度後的數字截然不同，這取決於你何時能夠實施我們所實施的策略。

But we -- by the time you finished up the quarter, you're approaching kind of balanced, if you will, on sort of the price/cost side. And our expectation is to kind of maintain something around neutrality. And as a result, whatever we achieve in the fourth quarter, I think, is going to be heavily a function of mix.

但是，到季度末，價格/成本方面就會趨於平衡。我們的期望是保持某種程度的中立性。因此，我認為，我們在第四季度取得的任何成績，都將很大程度上取決於產品組合。

Okay. Yes, that's really helpful, especially the price/cost getting neutral, I think that's really critical.

好的。是的，這真的很有幫助，尤其是價格/成本趨於平衡這一點，我認為這非常關鍵。

Okay. And then next question, and this is more theoretical, but based on what you're hearing from customers and seeing in the macro, what level of end market growth are you planning for in 2020?

好的。下一個問題，這個問題更偏理論性，但根據您從客戶那裡聽到的以及在宏觀層面上看到的，您計劃在 2020 年實現怎樣的終端市場增長水平？

So it -- yes, very theoretical. The -- what I would tell you is, as you know, I've studied the PMI and its impact on our business for a long time, and I always view the PMI as being a bit of a leading indicator. And I think the PMI is probably signaling to us that the conditions that you're seeing today, which, I think, suggests very -- fairly flattish volumes, that we're going to roll into 2020 in a very similar position.

所以——是的，非常理論化。我想告訴你的是，如你所知，我研究採購經理人指數 (PMI) 及其對我們業務的影響已經很長時間了，我一直認為 PMI 是一種領先指標。我認為採購經理人指數 (PMI) 可能會向我們發出信號，表明我們今天看到的狀況（我認為，這表明銷量非常——相當平穩），我們將以非常類似的狀況進入 2020 年。

Now what the second half looks like, I have no idea, but we're going to roll into 2020 in a very similar position. And I think if volumes are flattish, I think that next year, we will get whatever we get based on market share gains and call that between 5% to 7%. There's probably a little bit of incremental price that flows in there just because we recognize for a full year what we've put in as this year progresses.

至於下半年會是什麼樣子，我完全不知道，但我們進入 2020 年的情況應該會非常相似。我認為，如果銷量保持平穩，那麼明年我們將根據市場份額的成長情況獲得相應的收益，我估計成長幅度在 5% 到 7% 之間。隨著時間的推移，我們會把今年投入的資金計入全年的收益，因此價格可能會略有上漲。

And I think that the -- you're looking at something in the 5% to 8% range based on where the PMI is today. Depending where the PMI is in December, ask the question again because it might all change. But that's probably how I would characterize how I look at the PMI and its impact on our business.

我認為——根據目前的採購經理人指數（PMI）來看，這個數字應該在 5% 到 8% 之間。根據 12 月的 PMI 指數情況，再次提出這個問題，因為情況可能會改變。但這可能是我對 PMI 及其對我們業務的影響的看法。

The next question is from the line of Robert Barry with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究公司的羅伯特·巴里。

Congrats on a solid quarter. So just trying to get my head around this tariff-related math a little more. Just wanted to clarify, with the full impact of tariffs on List 3 at 25% flowing through the P&L in this quarter, was that your earlier statement?

恭喜你們本季業績出色。我只是想更深入地了解關稅相關的數學概念。我想確認一下，您之前的說法是，對清單 3 徵收 25% 的關稅的全部影響將在本季度計入損益表嗎？

Yes, for all intents and purposes because again, remember, our 2x turns don't really apply where tariffs are concerned, right? Because the moment tariffs go into effect, the first container that hits our shores are tariffed at that point. And from that point, call it, 3 months to move through our system from the ports through the hubs through the branches to our customer, right? So we're not talking about a 6-month window in which it takes to sort of realize the tariffs to our costs. We're talking about something shorter than that. And that's strictly based on the dynamics of the tariffs themselves. Basically...

是的，實際上確實如此，因為請記住，我們的 2 倍週轉率並不適用於關稅，對吧？因為關稅一旦生效，第一個抵達我們海岸的貨櫃就會被徵收關稅。從那時開始，大約需要 3 個月的時間，貨物才能從港口經由樞紐、分支機構到達我們的客戶手中，對吧？所以我們說的不是要6個月的時間來意識到關稅對我們成本的影響。我們說的是比這更短的。這完全取決於關稅本身的動態變化。基本上...

I'll add one more just twist to that. The dynamic -- there's really a couple of things that come into play. And a piece of that, I agree with Holden's comment; a piece of that, I disagree with Holden's comment.

我再補充一點。這種動態變化——實際上有兩個因素在起作用。其中一部分我同意霍爾頓的評論；其中一部分我不同意霍爾頓的評論。

If you think about a customer where we're bringing in, say, OEM fasteners or we're bringing in -- it's vending customers what we're bringing in, we do a lot of hand protection through our vending devices. So we are bringing in that kind of product. Your visibility to need and supply chain are much more dialed in. So that element of the product turns faster because you're bringing in product that you might have a 3-month supply, 4-month supply, 5-month supply, so it turns a little faster.

想想看，如果我們向客戶引入 OEM 緊固件，或者我們向客戶自動出售我們引入的產品，我們透過自動販賣機設備提供大量的手部防護用品。所以我們正在引進這類產品。您對需求和供應鏈的了解更加精準。因此，該產品的這一部分週轉速度更快，因為你進貨的產品可能是 3 個月、4 個月、5 個月的供應量，所以周轉速度會更快一些。

And the variability in that is dependent on not how quick it hits the cost impact, but how long -- how many months of -- how many days of inventory can change. If all of a sudden, a customer's business, OEM fasteners, are down 20%, what you thought was a 5-month supply just instantly became a 6-month supply, oops. That means you have the legacy of that problem a little longer. But it still hits relatively quickly. Same thing in a lot of our vending, our hand protection.

而這種變化的幅度取決於庫存變化的時間長短，而不是成本影響的速度，而是庫存變化的時間長短——幾個月——幾天。如果客戶業務（OEM 緊固件）突然下降了 20%，你原本以為夠用 5 個月的庫存瞬間就變成了夠用 6 個月的庫存，糟糕。這意味著你還要再忍受一段時間這個問題的遺留影響。但它的發作速度仍然相對較快。我們的許多自動販賣機也是一樣，需要保護雙手。

Now if you went and visited a bunch of our branches and you looked at a lot of the MRO fasteners and a lot of the products that are in our branches, that's product where we have less certainty, less visibility to demand, and we stack it a bit deeper because of that. There, you have a product that might turn once a year. And so there's some elements of both.

如果你去參觀我們的一些分公司，看看我們分公司裡存放的很多 MRO 緊固件和很多產品，你會發現，對於這些產品，我們不太確定需求，也不太能預見需求，因此我們把它們堆放得比較深。這樣一來，你就得到了一個可能一年只更新一次的產品。所以兩者兼具一些要素。

A lot of our discussions with our customers is on the former, not the latter because that's the product in their known spend as opposed to their tail spend. It's the tail spend that becomes a little more difficult from a turn standpoint. I hope that -- I hope I shed light there instead of confusing there...

我們與客戶的許多討論都集中在前者（產品）上，而不是後者（產品），因為前者是他們已知的支出範圍，而不是他們的尾部支出範圍。從回合角度來看，尾部支出會變得更加困難。我希望——我希望我能闡明這一點，而不是造成混亂…

Yes. A little bit, perhaps. I mean what I'm getting -- trying to get my head around is if you look at your sales, 34% is fasteners. I assume a healthy chunk of that is subject to the tariffs. And if you assume tariffs, the 25% on that COGS, it seems like a much bigger number than the 1% price would cover. So I mean maybe some of the things you're talking about, Dan, are the reasons why price/cost can be almost neutral, even though that kind of headline math I just did suggests a much bigger pressure. Or maybe there are other offsets?

是的。或許有一點點吧。我的意思是，我正在努力理解的是，如果你看一下你的銷售額，你會發現緊固件佔了 34%。我估計其中很大一部分都要繳關稅。如果考慮到關稅，那麼銷售成本的 25% 似乎比 1% 的價格所能涵蓋的數字要大得多。所以我的意思是，丹，你說的某些事情或許可以解釋為什麼價格/成本幾乎是中性的，儘管我剛才做的那種簡單的計算表明價格/成本的壓力要大得多。或者可能還有其他偏移量？

Well, there are some -- yes. Keep in mind -- I'll let Holden add in, but there's a bunch of fastener product that we have moved out of tariff-based country. This year, right into -- when you move it, it might be more expensive, but it's less expensive than a 10%, a 15%, a 25% tariff. And so there is some stuff that we've moved out, but I'll let Holden chime in.

嗯，是有一些的。請記住——我會讓霍爾頓補充，但我們已經將許多緊固件產品轉移到了關稅國家之外。今年，當你搬家時，它可能會更貴，但比 10%、15%、25% 的關稅便宜。所以，有些東西我們已經搬出去了，不過還是讓霍爾頓來說說吧。

Yes. I mean the only other nuance I would add to that is it's certainly true that we import the great majority of our fasteners, but recall that whereas China is one source, which, as Dan indicated, we've actually reduced that source over this period of time, we also get a lot from Taiwan and a handful of other countries out there that aren't subject, right? So don't overstate the impact of -- if fasteners are heavily tariffed, they are if they're coming from China. But we get a lot of our fasteners from Taiwan and other areas in Asia as well as there's a major supplier in Canada that aren't quite as affected as much. So those obviously aren't impacted the same way.

是的。我的意思是，我唯一要補充的是，我們進口的緊固件確實佔了絕大多數，但請記住，雖然中國是其中一個來源（正如丹所指出的，我們在這段時間裡實際上已經減少了從中國進口的緊固件），但我們也從台灣和其他一些不受管制的國家進口了很多，對吧？所以不要誇大其影響——如果緊固件被徵收高額關稅，那一定是來自中國的緊固件。但我們的緊固件很多都來自台灣和亞洲其他地區，此外，我們在加拿大也有一家主要供應商，他們受到的影響沒有那麼大。所以很明顯，它們受到的影響並不相同。

Would you be willing to just tell us what your List 3 and List 4 exposures are?

您能否告知我們您的第三類和第四類風險敞口分別是什麼？

No. Yes, I mean what we said is substantially, all of our products that we source from China is covered by List 3 and List 4. We have not disclosed historically what that number is specifically. What it was when this all began 18 months ago, it's a little bit lower than that now or 12 months ago, it's a little bit lower than that now because of the work that we have done. Again, as Dan pointed out, to improve the supply chain cost of our customers' supply chains, we have moved a material amount of product out of China into other areas usually within the region. But it's still a significant minority of -- our overall purchasing comes from China. And what does come from China is going to be captured by List 3 and List 4.

不。是的，我的意思是，我們之前所說的基本上是，我們從中國採購的所有產品都包含在第三類和第四類清單中。我們過去從未透露過具體數字是多少。18 個月前這一切剛開始時的情況，現在比那時略低一些；12 個月前的情況，現在也比那時略低一些，這都歸功於我們所做的工作。正如丹所指出的，為了降低客戶供應鏈的成本，我們已將大量產品從中國轉移到其他地區，通常是該地區內的其他地區。但這仍然只占我們整體採購量的很大一部分——我們整體的採購都來自中國。而來自中國的商品將會被列入第三類清單和第四類清單。

The next question is from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Just maybe follow up on some of the non-resi commentary. In fact, there was a nice uptick in momentum there in September. Dan, I know you talked a little bit about some slowness. Otherwise, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. But I think more broadly, construction markets had some weather issues impacting earlier parts of the year. Did the season just kind of go longer or have a bit more tail at the end as a function of weather pushouts? Or any explanation for maybe why September was an uptick?

或許可以跟進一些非居民評論。事實上，9月這方面的勢頭出現了不錯的成長。丹，我知道你之前提到過速度有點慢。否則，這確實有點令人費解。但我認為更廣泛地說，建築市場在今年稍早受到了一些天氣問題的影響。由於天氣原因，賽季是否延長了，或者在賽季末期延長了？或者，能否解釋為什麼九月的病例數會上升？

Yes. I hesitate to -- being a farm kid from Wisconsin, I'm always attuned to the weather and I'm appreciative of what that means for this time of the year and people getting corn and soybeans in this part of the country harvested. I am hesitant to talk much about weather short of that because we're in a lot of jurisdictions. And unless there's something major that really hits, it's a regional issue more than a company issue.

是的。我猶豫要不要這麼說——作為一個來自威斯康辛州的農家孩子，我總是很關注天氣，我很感激天氣對一年中這個時候以及這個地區的人們收穫玉米和大​​豆的意義。除了天氣之外，我不太願意多談天氣，因為我們涉及很多地區。除非發生重大事件，否則這更多的是地區性問題，而不是公司問題。

The one -- you pointed out September. September did have a nice uptick in construction. We grew 6.5% our construction business versus the first couple of months we are growing between 1% and 2%. I like what I saw in September. 1 month is not a trend. I would love to see that strengthening that we saw in September shine through on October, November, and time will tell if that happens. Right now, I honestly don't know, but I did like what we saw in September.

就是你指出的九月的那個。9月份建築業確實出現了不錯的成長。我們的建築業務成長了 6.5%，而前幾個月我們的成長率在 1% 到 2% 之間。我喜歡九月看到的景象。一個月的時間不足以形成趨勢。我希望看到我們在九月看到的這種增強勢頭能在十月、十一月繼續保持，時間會證明一切。說實話，我現在還不知道，但我確實很喜歡九月我們看到的。

The other thing I might suggest is if you look at just the comparables, in August of 2018, our construction business was growing 18%, 19%. In September of '18, it was growing 13%, 14%. So a little bit easier comp, I think, also contributed to September looking better than the other 2 months in there, so I would consider that as well.

我還可以建議，如果只看可比較數據，2018 年 8 月，我們的建築業務成長了 18%、19%。2018 年 9 月，成長率為 13%、14%。所以，我認為，比較容易一些也是九月的數據比其他兩個月看起來更好的原因之一，所以我也會把這一點考慮進去。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on pricing. Obviously, some good momentum there getting kind of caught up after 2Q. Any kind of institutionalized moves? I know there's a lot of discretion at kind of the branch and salesperson level on price movement and what it takes to win business or retain business. Has any of that discretion been lifted to higher parts of the organization to where maybe things like 2Q don't happen as often? Or did it just need to be a catch-up?

知道了。最後再補充一下價格方面的問題。顯然，球隊在第二季度之後勢頭良好，逐漸趕上了上來。任何形式的製度化措施？我知道在分公司和銷售人員層面，價格變動以及如何贏得業務或留住業務方面有很大的自主權。這種自由裁量權是否已經下放到組織中更高層級，從而避免像第二季度那樣的事情頻繁發生？還是只是需要補之前的進度？

First off, one of the ways we circle the wagon, so to speak, is we have a frank and honest discussion with our teams. And we talk to -- here are the facts at hand. Here is what we need to do and here's some of the discussions we need to have with our customers. And like I say, you always lead the discussion with -- here are solutions that make some of the issue go away. Maybe there is a different widget that has a similar form and function that you've suggested in the past, but there hasn't been a willingness to change that all of a sudden now can effectively offset this impact.

首先，我們團結一致的方法之一，就是與團隊進行坦誠的討論。我們與…進行了交談——以下是目前掌握的事實。以下是我們需要做的事情，以及我們需要與客戶進行的一些討論。就像我說的，你總是以這樣的方式引導討論——這裡有一些可以解決部分問題的方案。也許過去您曾建議過使用其他具有類似形式和功能的組件，但一直沒有人願意做出改變，以至於現在突然出現一個可以有效抵消這種影響的組件。

But you have a frank and honest discussion with your team and they have a frank and honest discussion with our customers. And you challenge them and say, "This isn't a mandatory thing. This is a need-to-do thing," which, frankly, I think, is more important than a mandatory thing. We need to do this.

但是，你要和你的團隊進行坦誠的討論，他們也要和我們的客戶進行坦誠的討論。然後你質疑他們，說：“這不是強制性的。”“這是必須要做的事情”，坦白說，我認為這比強制的事情更重要。我們必須這樣做。

And -- but we also need to have a mindset that this isn't a project. This isn't a 3-month thing. This isn't a 12-month thing. This is something you just do. It's just that right now we need to reallocate a little more time to it because the urgency's high, because the volatility is high and you need to have that conversation with your customer. Unfortunately, when you reallocate some of that energy, maybe your vending drops off a little bit on your signings. Maybe your Onsite drops off a little bit on signings because something -- there's always a finite amount of energy in the air.

而且──但我們也需要樹立一種觀念，那就是這不是一個項目。這不是三個月就能解決的問題。這並非一個為期12個月的問題。這是你自然而然就會做的事。只是現在我們需要再多花點時間，因為情況緊急，波動性大，你需要和你的客戶溝通。不幸的是，當你把一些精力重新分配到其他方面時，你的銷售表現可能會在簽約過程中有所下降。也許你的現場簽約量會因為某些原因而略有下降——空氣中的能量總是有限的。

Yes. So I mean I would say we really didn't fiddle with any elements of our culture, right, with the elements of allowing people in the field to make decisions because they're the ones that know the customer far better than anybody in Winona does. And so we really didn't fiddle with elements of culture, if that's what you're asking.

是的。所以我的意思是，我們真的沒有改變我們文化中的任何元素，對吧？我們仍然允許第一線員工做出決策，因為他們比威諾納的任何人都更了解客戶。所以，如果你問的是這個，那麼答案是：我們並沒有真正改變文化元素。

What we have fiddled with, as I said before, is the information and tools that are available to people in the field, the structure internally by which we attack sort of price and cost questions. And then obviously, just again building up that muscle memory in the field, getting used to having these conversations and that sort of thing, we fiddled with those elements, but we didn't fiddle with fundamental culture, payroll, anything or pay plan or anything like that to achieve what we've done. And the good news is I think that means that it should be more sustainable.

正如我之前所說，我們調整的是該領域人員可獲得的資訊和工具，以及我們內部用來解決價格和成本問題的結構。然後很顯然，我們再次在實踐中培養了這種肌肉記憶，習慣了進行這些對話等等，我們調整了這些要素，但我們沒有調整基本的企業文化、工資、薪酬計劃或任何類似的東西，就取得了我們所取得的成就。好消息是，我認為這意味著它應該更具可持續性。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Dankert with Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 Chris Dankert。

I guess from my perspective, I saw you guys stepped up the IT and technology investment in the quarter by several million bucks. Anything worth writing home about there? Any kind of major projects you'd highlight?

依我看來，你們本季在IT和技術方面的投資增加了數百萬美元。那裡有什麼值得寫信回家的事嗎？有什麼值得重點介紹的大型專案嗎？

When I stepped into this role, one of the things that I thought was important, the -- looking at the landscape out there, we decided to make a meaningful move. And I started to talk about this with our shareholders back in that time frame. We decided to increase our relative IT spend about 0.5% of sales. So I think what our business today is 0.5% less profitable relative to -- so 50 basis points less profitable because we decided to up that spend.

當我擔任這個職位時，我認為很重要的一件事是──審視外面的世界，我們決定採取有意義的行動。當時我就開始和股東們討論這個問題了。我們決定將IT支出佔銷售額的比例提高約0.5%。所以我認為，由於我們決定增加支出，我們今天的業務利潤比之前減少了 0.5%，也就是減少了 50 個基點。

Now my gut believes that, that 50 basis points, we will -- we are -- I don't know if we've clawed it all back, but we're clawing it back because it brings productivity, and it improves our business. If I -- I'm always talking to John, sort of our leader in the IT area. John's done -- John's been in that area now, what, 3.5 years leading that team. He has done a wonderful job. We have great talent. He's done a wonderful job better connecting our IT group with our business. And we were -- and so the talents, the inherent talents of our IT team really shine through.

現在我的直覺告訴我，那 50 個基點，我們將會——我們正在——我不知道我們是否已經全部追回，但我們正在追回，因為它能提高生產力，並改善我們的業務。如果我──我總是和約翰說話，他算是我們IT領域的負責人。約翰已經完成了──約翰在那個地區工作了多久，領導那個團隊3年半了。他做得非常出色。我們擁有優秀的人才。他出色地完成了工作，並更好地將我們的IT團隊與業務部門聯繫起來。而我們確實做到了──因此，我們 IT 團隊的才能，他們與生俱來的才能，真正得以展現。

If I think of some recent wins, just yesterday with our Board of Directors, I was chatting with him about -- about 2 days ago, we rolled out -- and some of you are going to roll your eyes at this comment because companies have been doing this stuff for a long time. We haven't. We started talking earlier this year about the -- implementing a bot within our business to improve. And our safety team, we have developed an incredible safety business over the last decade obviously helped by vending. 55% of our vending revenue is safety products.

如果我回顧一下最近的一些勝利，就在昨天，我和董事會成員聊到——大約兩天前，我們推出了——你們中的一些人可能會對我的評論翻白眼，因為公司做這些事情已經很久了。我們沒有。今年早些時候，我們就開始討論在公司內部引進機器人來改善業務。在過去的十年裡，我們的安全團隊發展了一支非常優秀的安全團隊，這顯然得益於自動販賣機的幫助。我們自動販賣機收入的 55% 來自安全產品。

And our safety team was looking for added resources because they get bombarded with thousands of questions from the field and it just takes away a lot of their energy. And to me, the 2 things -- a couple of things jumped out there. Boy, that's -- I'm glad to hear they're getting bombarded with questions. But I'd rather not add resources to answer questions because the ultimate is surface the information for our team so they have it 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in the field.

我們的安全團隊正在尋找更多資源，因為他們要應對來自現場的數千個問題，這會消耗他們大量的精力。對我來說，有兩件事——有兩件事特別突出。哇，那真是——我很高興聽到他們被各種問題轟炸。但我寧願不增加資源來回答問題，因為最終目的是讓我們的團隊隨時隨地（每週 7 天，每天 24 小時）獲取資訊。

So we created our first chatbot and rolled out 2 days ago. It's a safety bot. We've loaded it with common questions that our safety team gets. We've loaded it with information, OSHA, rigs, all the -- and I'm going to start spewing things I know nothing about, but information that our field needs to address customer questions. We rolled it out to 50 branches a couple of days ago. I'm pleased to report, the first morning it was out, there were 29 questions asked and 22 responses, 76% hit rate on responses as far as satisfactory responses to the questions. And that's something we couldn't have done 2 years ago.

於是，我們創建了第一個聊天機器人，並在兩天前正式上線。這是一個安全機器人。我們已將安全團隊經常被問到的問題都收錄其中。我們已經把資訊都加載進去了，包括 OSHA、鑽井平台等等——接下來我要開始胡說八道一些我一竅不通的事情，但這些都是我們現場人員需要用來解答客戶問題的資訊。幾天前，我們已在 50 家分行推廣開來。我很高興地報告，在調查發布後的第一天早上，我們收到了 29 個問題和 22 個回复，回复的滿意度為 76%。而這在兩年前是我們做不到的。

We are doing some things with rolling out some mobility. That's a slow walk. We're -- but we're rolling some things out. To me, I fundamentally believe the wins are a better partner with our customer, a more productive business, which means we can inherently be more competitive in the marketplace and still provide better value.

我們正在推進一些行動出行方案的推出。那可是慢悠悠的散步。我們正在推出一些新產品。對我而言，我堅信勝利意味著與客戶建立更好的合作關係，打造更有效率的業務，這意味著我們可以在市場上更具競爭力，同時也能提供更好的價值。

And -- but that's something -- a couple of quick examples. Again, you might roll your eyes and say, "Boy, those are pretty small steps." I think they're huge steps, and I'm really proud of our team for doing it.

但總而言之——舉幾個簡單的例子。你可能會翻白眼說：「哎呀，這只是很小的一步。」但我認為這是巨大的一步，我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

And you're right. I mean we're looking at IT spending this year just, from a P&L standpoint, probably being up 10%, 15%. It's an area that we continue to invest in our business because we can do so. Even though things are slowing down, that's not necessarily an area that we're looking to restrict our spend.

你說得對。我的意思是，從損益表的角度來看，我們預計今年的 IT 支出可能會成長 10% 到 15%。這是我們持續投資的領域，因為我們有能力這樣做。儘管經濟成長放緩，但這並非我們打算限制支出的領域。

We invest where we get a return.

我們只投資能帶來回報的地方。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. It really helps kind of level set things and kind of how the growth goes there. And just the last one for me. From a very high level, we talked about Onsite already, but just again thinking about total opportunity. In the past, you guys have highlighted maybe 4,000 vetted addressable opportunities today. Is that still kind of what you see as the opportunity out there?

知道了。它確實有助於釐清各種因素，以及了解那裡的發展方向。這是我最後一個了。從宏觀層面來說，我們已經討論過現場辦公，但現在我們再次思考整體機會。過去，你們今天可能已經重點介紹了 4000 個經過審核的潛在商機。你仍然認為這就是目前存在的機會嗎？

Yes. And we'll -- and I'll say it that way. I believe that number has upside from this standpoint. Earlier, we were talking about the 35 Onsite closures. And to me, the reason I believe it's okay to have what you could arguably call a failure is it means we're testing fringes. It means we're constantly trying things that maybe we haven't done before to see if it'd work.

是的。我們會——我會這麼說。我認為從這個角度來看，這個數字還有上升空間。之前我們討論過 35 個現場關閉事件。對我來說，我認為允許某種程度的失敗是可以接受的，因為這意味著我們正在測試一些邊緣領域。這意味著我們會不斷嘗試一些以前可能從未做過的事情，看看是否可行。

I remember a trip I did with Troy Parkos who leads our business here in the Upper Midwest. We're down in the Milwaukee area and we're visiting an Onsite. And there's nobody in our organization that knows more about Onsites than Troy. He's been successful with a lot of them over the years. And he [doesn't know] what he's doing and he's kind of shrugging and he said, "Damn, I'm not sure if it will work, but here's why I did it. Boom, boom, boom." He laid out his reasons, and I'm like, "That's awesome."

我記得我曾經和特洛伊·帕科斯一起出差，他是我們公司在中西部地區的業務負責人。我們現在在密爾瓦基地區，正在參觀一個現場。在我們組織裡，沒有人比 Troy 更了解現場服務了。多年來，他與其中許多人合作都取得了成功。他不知道自己在做什麼，他聳了聳肩說：“該死，我不確定這是否會奏效，但我這樣做的原因是這樣的。”“砰、砰、砰。”他闡述了自己的理由，我心想：“太棒了。”

And so I think there is an upside to that number, but yes, that's where our number sits now. But I think we've become more creative because Bob Kierlin created an organization that trusts people to try things and be willing to make mistakes.

所以我認為這個數字也有正面的一面，但沒錯，這就是我們目前的數字。但我認為，我們變得更有創造力，是因為鮑伯·基爾林創造了一個信任員工、鼓勵他們嘗試新事物、勇於犯錯的組織。

And Dan, you can correct me if this is wrong because this is -- that number is put together before I necessarily was here. But I believe that number also didn't include construction, government, education opportunities, right?

丹，如果我說錯了，你可以糾正我，因為這個數字是在我來之前統計的。但我認為這個數字也沒有包括建築業、政府部門和教育機會，對嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

So we're actually finding opportunities to be Onsite in environments like that as well, which, to Dan's point, is kind of expanding the envelope for what's possible within an Onsite environment.

所以，我們實際上也在這樣的環境中尋找現場辦公的機會，正如丹所說，這在某種程度上擴大了現場辦公環境的可能性範圍。

With that, it's 5 minutes of the hour. I'm going to call the -- call short of 5 minutes, sorry about that. I'm a big believer in obligation. One thing I constantly talk to my team about is obligations we each have to each other, to our customer, to our shareholder and to our supplier. And the one obligation I have to this group is be around to answer calls.

就這樣，距離整點還有5分鐘。我要打電話了——比預計時間少了5分鐘，抱歉。我非常相信責任。我經常跟我的團隊強調的一點是，我們每個人對彼此、對我們的客戶、對股東和對供應商都有義務。我對這個團隊的唯一義務就是隨時接聽電話。

Today, I won't be here for that obligation. I'm leaving in a few minutes. A friend and brother -- he's technically my brother-in-law, but a friend and brother passed away from pancreatic cancer here in September, David Gustafson, down in Madison and going down to support my wife, my sister-in-law and my nephew. And so I won't be around for any questions. If you have any of me, give me a holler next week. Thank you.

今天，我不會來這裡履行那項義務。我幾分鐘後就要走了。一位朋友兼兄弟——嚴格來說他是我的姐夫，但一位朋友兼兄弟大衛·古斯塔夫森（David Gustafson）於今年九月在麥迪遜因胰腺癌去世，我正前往麥迪遜支持我的妻子、我的嫂子和我的侄子。所以，我不會回答任何問題。如果你有我的消息，下週就打電話給我。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。