福特汽車 (F) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ford Motor Company Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到福特汽車公司的收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Ted Cannis, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係執行總監 Ted Cannis。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

All right.

好的。

Thanks very much, Maria.

非常感謝，瑪麗亞。

Good morning, and welcome everybody to Ford Motor Company's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Review.

早上好，歡迎大家觀看福特汽車公司 2017 年第一季度收益回顧。

Presenting today are Mark Fields, our President and CEO; and Bob Shanks, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天出席的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mark Fields；和我們的首席財務官 Bob Shanks。

Also participating are John Lawler, Vice President and Controller; Neil Schloss, Vice President, Corporate Treasurer and CFO of Ford Smart Mobility; Paul Andonian, Director of Accounting; and Marion Harris, Ford Credit CFO.

與會者還有副總裁兼財務總監 John Lawler； Ford Smart Mobility 副總裁、公司財務主管兼首席財務官 Neil Schloss； Paul Andonian，會計總監；和福特信貸首席財務官 Marion Harris。

The results today include some of our non-GAAP references.

今天的結果包括我們的一些非 GAAP 參考資料。

These are reconciled to the GAAP measures in the appendix to the slides.

這些與幻燈片附錄中的 GAAP 措施相一致。

Also today includes Ford's earnings material and Ford Credit's earnings material presentation as we're no longer holding a Ford Credit call.

今天還包括福特的收益材料和福特信貸的收益材料演示，因為我們不再舉行福特信貸電話會議。

So you have it all one -- in one package here.

所以你擁有所有的東西——在這裡一個包裹裡。

Today's discussion includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for future performance.

今天的討論包括一些關於我們對未來業績預期的前瞻性陳述。

Of course, actual results may vary, and most of the significant factors are included in the presentation.

當然，實際結果可能會有所不同，大多數重要因素都包含在演示文稿中。

So with that, what we'd like to do is pass it over to Mark Fields.

因此，我們想要做的就是將其傳遞給 Mark Fields。

Mark?

標記？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝，泰德，大家早上好。

Thanks for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

As you can see on Slide 3, we're focused on 3 sets of strategic priorities and, importantly, taking the actions that will drive value for our shareholders as we expand to an auto and a mobility company.

正如您在幻燈片 3 中看到的那樣，我們專注於 3 組戰略重點，重要的是，在我們擴展到一家汽車和移動公司時，採取的行動將為我們的股東創造價值。

And we are reallocating capital to fortify our core strengths, transform underperforming parts of our business and investing aggressively but prudently in emerging opportunities.

我們正在重新分配資本以鞏固我們的核心優勢，轉變我們業務中表現不佳的部分，並積極但謹慎地投資於新興機會。

And while we reallocate capital in each of these areas, that decision-making is being governed by where to play, where not play and how to win.

雖然我們在這些領域中的每一個領域都重新分配了資金，但決策是由在哪裡玩、不在哪裡玩以及如何取勝來決定的。

So with that as a backdrop, what I'd like to do is take you through our first quarter results.

因此，以此為背景，我想做的是帶您了解我們第一季度的業績。

So in the first quarter, as you can see on Slide 4, we delivered total company adjusted pretax profit of $2.2 billion, which was lower than our best-ever quarterly profit a year ago.

因此，在第一季度，正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣，我們實現了公司調整後的稅前總利潤 22 億美元，低於一年前我們有史以來最好的季度利潤。

Importantly, revenue was up, and that reflects favorable mix.

重要的是，收入增加了，這反映了有利的組合。

All the other key metrics were down, and our adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.39.

所有其他關鍵指標均下降，我們調整後的每股收益為 0.39 美元。

We are reaffirming that we will remain on plan for our full year guidance.

我們重申，我們將繼續按照全年指導計劃進行。

And we continue to expect total company adjusted pretax profit to be about $9 billion this year, with stronger profits in 2018.

我們繼續預計今年公司調整後的稅前利潤總額約為 90 億美元，2018 年的利潤會更高。

Now turning to Slide 5. Our strategic priorities are focused on the 4 drivers of shareholder value: growth, risk, returns and rewards.

現在轉到幻燈片 5。我們的戰略重點集中在股東價值的 4 個驅動因素上：增長、風險、回報和回報。

So let me take you through each one of these.

因此，讓我帶您了解其中的每一個。

In terms of growth.

在增長方面。

We grew our top line in the quarter with company revenue up 4%, and that was driven by favorable mix.

我們在本季度實現了收入增長，公司收入增長了 4%，這是由有利的組合推動的。

Here in the U.S., our average transaction prices increased by nearly 4x the industry average.

在美國，我們的平均交易價格上漲了近 4 倍於行業平均水平。

Lincoln sales continue to show improvement.

林肯的銷量繼續顯示出改善。

They were up 24% globally in the quarter, and that was 9% in the U.S. and 114% in China.

他們在本季度全球增長了 24%，其中美國增長了 9%，中國增長了 114%。

In terms of risk.

在風險方面。

We're sitting at $28 billion in cash, which provides both protection in the current business environment but also reflects the potential for strategic acquisitions and other prudent investments in the years ahead.

我們坐擁 280 億美元的現金，這既為當前的商業環境提供了保護，也反映了未來幾年戰略收購和其他審慎投資的潛力。

In addition to that, we remain fit for any future downturn in North America, with a healthy break-even SAAR at 11 million units in the U.S.

除此之外，我們仍然適合北美未來的任何低迷，美國的健康收支平衡 SAAR 為 1100 萬台。

And finally, in terms of risk.

最後，在風險方面。

Our global funded pension plans are nearly fully funded and derisked.

我們的全球資助型養老金計劃幾乎資金到位且風險降低。

And Ford Credit continues to be disciplined while, at the same time, being a very healthy contributor to our bottom line.

福特信貸繼續受到紀律處分，同時成為我們底線的非常健康的貢獻者。

In returns, we had $2 billion in cash flow in the quarter.

在回報方面，本季度我們有 20 億美元的現金流。

We delivered our eighth consecutive profitable quarter in Europe, and we had our second consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvements across all key metrics in South America.

我們在歐洲實現了連續第八個盈利季度，並且我們在南美洲的所有關鍵指標連續第二個季度實現了同比改善。

And that includes market share.

這包括市場份額。

And then finally, in terms of rewards.

最後，在獎勵方面。

Shareholders benefited from our continued success and also our strong cash generation as we distributed $800 million in the quarter.

股東受益於我們的持續成功以及強勁的現金生成，因為我們在本季度分配了 8 億美元。

And that includes a supplemental dividend that totaled $200 million.

其中包括總計 2 億美元的補充股息。

Turning to Slide 6. This summarizes the progress that we're making on executing our strategic priorities.

轉到幻燈片 6。這總結了我們在執行戰略重點方面取得的進展。

And we are fortifying our profit pillars, including our leadership and strong global franchise in trucks.

我們正在鞏固我們的利潤支柱，包括我們在卡車領域的領導地位和強大的全球特許經營權。

We've announced that we'll be launching an upgraded F-150 in the second half of the year and reintroducing Ranger to North America in 2019.

我們已經宣布，我們將在今年下半年推出升級版 F-150，並在 2019 年將 Ranger 重新引入北美。

And this introduction will help us expand our 40-year leadership in full-size trucks while introducing a competitive entry into the U.S. midsize pickup segment -- pickup truck segment with an addressable retail market of more than $12 billion.

這一介紹將幫助我們擴大我們在全尺寸卡車領域 40 年的領先地位，同時在美國中型皮卡領域引入有競爭力的進入——皮卡領域的可尋址零售市場超過 120 億美元。

In utilities, we introduced the all-new Expedition, which is a critical vehicle in helping us capture market share in the small but lucrative full-size SUV segment.

在公用事業領域，我們推出了全新的 Expedition，這是幫助我們在小型但利潤豐厚的全尺寸 SUV 細分市場中佔據市場份額的關鍵工具。

We also announced the global introduction of Bronco coming in 2020.

我們還宣布將於 2020 年在全球推出 Bronco。

And in performance, we have a true global leader with our Mustang.

在性能方面，我們的野馬擁有真正的全球領導者。

Mustang is now sold in 140 countries, and Mustang was the best-selling sports car in the world in 2016.

野馬現已在140個國家銷售，野馬是2016年全球最暢銷的跑車。

And to reinforce our continued leadership and to fortify that pillar in performance, our new 2018 Mustang is coming this fall.

為了鞏固我們的持續領導地位並鞏固這一業績支柱，我們全新的 2018 年 Mustang 將於今年秋季上市。

When it comes to transforming traditionally underperforming parts of our business, our transformation of Lincoln continues to gain momentum.

在轉型我們業務中傳統上表現不佳的部分時，我們對林肯的轉型繼續獲得動力。

We introduced the first all-new Lincoln Navigator in more than a decade, and we also announced plans to manufacture an all-new Lincoln SUV in China for the Chinese market, which will have the benefits of improving profitability and cash flow while, at the same time, allowing us to better respond to market needs more quickly.

我們推出了十多年來首款全新林肯領航員，我們還宣布計劃在中國為中國市場生產全新林肯 SUV，這將有利於提高盈利能力和現金流，同時，在同時，讓我們更好更快地響應市場需求。

And when it comes to growing in the emerging opportunities, I think we've clearly laid out our electrification strategy playing to our strengths and electrifying vehicles to provide more capability and productivity and performance and better fuel economy for our customers.

當談到在新興機遇中的增長時，我認為我們已經明確制定了我們的電氣化戰略，發揮我們的優勢和電氣化車輛，為我們的客戶提供更多的能力、生產力和性能以及更好的燃油經濟性。

And I believe a prime example of this is our unveiling a couple of weeks ago of the industry's first pursuit-rated hybrid police car.

我相信這方面的一個典型例子是我們在幾週前推出了業界首款追捕級混合動力警車。

And I believe that further cements our strong franchise among law enforcement and cities by delivering a hybrid vehicle that will power the high electrical loads of a police vehicle but also reduce engine run time and reducing emissions.

我相信，通過提供混合動力汽車，可以進一步鞏固我們在執法部門和城市中的強大特許經營權，該混合動力汽車將為警車的高電力負載提供動力，同時還能縮短髮動機運行時間並減少排放。

So with that as an overview, let me turn it over to Bob, and he'll take us through the details of our business performance.

因此，作為一個概述，讓我把它交給鮑勃，他將向我們介紹我們業務績效的細節。

Okay.

好的。

Mark, thanks, and good morning, everybody.

馬克，謝謝，大家早上好。

On Slide 8, that's where we'll start.

在幻燈片 8 上，我們將從這裡開始。

And what I'll do, as usual, Mark has already touched on a number of the metrics on the slide.

和往常一樣，我要做的是，Mark 已經談到了幻燈片上的一些指標。

I will also cover some of the other ones later in the presentation.

我還將在演示文稿的稍後部分介紹其他一些內容。

So I want to focus my comments here only on the things that you'll only see on this particular slide.

因此，我想在這裡集中評論您只會在這張特定幻燈片上看到的內容。

So let's start first with the special items pretax, sort of in the middle of the slide.

因此，讓我們首先從稅前的特殊項目開始，在幻燈片的中間。

You can see that came in at a favorable $24 million, $210 million better than a year ago.

你可以看到收入達到了 2400 萬美元，比一年前多了 2.1 億美元。

And that is driven by the fact that we reassessed the cancellation charges associated with the cancellation of our plant in Mexico.

這是因為我們重新評估了與取消我們在墨西哥的工廠相關的取消費。

We booked that in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季度預訂了。

It was $199 million.

這是1.99億美元。

We've taken that down by $46 million.

我們已經將其減少了 4600 萬美元。

So the cancellation charges on that basis would be $153 million.

因此，在此基礎上取消費用為 1.53 億美元。

So that's what's driving the $24 million.

這就是推動 2400 萬美元的原因。

The balance are European separation costs.

餘額是歐洲分離成本。

And when you look at the year-over-year, the $210 million good news is lower separation costs associated with our European restructuring actions as well as that $46 million improvement in the cancellation charges related to Mexico.

與去年同期相比，2.1 億美元的好消息是與我們的歐洲重組行動相關的分離成本降低，以及與墨西哥相關的取消費用減少 4600 萬美元。

The second point I want to make is around our adjusted effective tax rate.

我想說的第二點是關於我們調整後的有效稅率。

It came in at 28.6% for the quarter.

本季度為 28.6%。

That was 80 basis points better than a year ago and consistent with our full year guidance of the -- an adjusted effective tax rate of about 30%.

這比一年前高了 80 個基點，與我們的全年指導方針一致——調整後的有效稅率約為 30%。

And then the last point is on the lower right of the slide in the text.

然後最後一點在正文中幻燈片的右下角。

We came in with an adjusted EPS of $0.39.

我們調整後的每股收益為 0.39 美元。

Only about a month ago, I suppose, I guided to $0.30 to $0.35 based on what we were looking at, at that time.

我想，就在大約一個月前，我根據當時的情況將價格引導至 0.30 美元至 0.35 美元。

The $0.39, that difference is due to favorable timing of cost performance and wholesale volume, largely in North America, but we did see some good news in other parts of the business.

0.39 美元的差異是由於成本效益和批發量的有利時機，主要是在北美，但我們確實在業務的其他部分看到了一些好消息。

So this is timing, and we don't see it having any impact on our outlook for the full year.

所以這是時機，我們認為它不會對我們全年的展望產生任何影響。

All right, let's move on to Slide 9. What we're looking at here is total company absolutes and the reporting segment absolutes.

好吧，讓我們繼續看幻燈片 9。我們在這裡看到的是公司絕對值和報告部門絕對值。

So we had solid results for the total company, solid results for Automotive at $2 billion, which made up the bulk of the company's results.

因此，我們為整個公司取得了可觀的業績，汽車業務取得了 20 億美元的可觀業績，這佔了公司業績的大部分。

Solid results in the Financial Services segment at $466 million, and within that, Ford Credit at $481 million, which we'll cover a bit later.

金融服務部門的穩健業績為 4.66 億美元，其中福特信貸為 4.81 億美元，我們將在稍後介紹。

And then to the far right, you can see all other, a loss of $212 million.

然後在最右邊，你可以看到所有其他的，損失了 2.12 億美元。

Most of that -- in fact, almost all of that was net interest expense on our Automotive debt.

其中大部分 - 事實上，幾乎所有這些都是我們汽車債務的淨利息支出。

There was a very small loss at our FSM, Ford Smart Mobility LLC.

我們的 FSM，Ford Smart Mobility LLC 損失很小。

And then when you go below the chart, you can see the changes on a year-over-year basis.

然後，當您查看圖表下方時，您可以看到同比變化。

And I want to spend a little bit of time here.

我想在這里花點時間。

I'll do this in selected places throughout my comments this morning.

我將在今天早上的整個評論中在選定的地方執行此操作。

In the lower left, you can see a decline of $1.6 billion in the quarter year-over-year, and this was against last year's record results.

在左下方，您可以看到本季度同比下降 16 億美元，這與去年創紀錄的結果形成鮮明對比。

We have guided for the full year to a total company adjusted pretax profit of $9 billion.

我們已指導全年公司調整後稅前利潤總額為 90 億美元。

Last year, we made $10.4 billion.

去年，我們賺了 104 億美元。

So we're expecting a decline year-over-year of roughly $1.4 billion.

因此，我們預計同比下降約 14 億美元。

Effectively, that decline has happened this quarter.

實際上，這種下降已經發生在本季度。

Now when we look at the next 3 quarters, they'll be up and down.

現在，當我們查看接下來的 3 個季度時，它們會上下波動。

But if we look at the aggregate of the second, third and fourth quarters and compare that to the same period in 2016, we expect those results to be essentially flat to a little bit better.

但如果我們查看第二、第三和第四季度的總和，並將其與 2016 年同期進行比較，我們預計這些結果將基本持平或稍好一些。

So effectively, this is the quarter in which the full year decline flows through to our full year results.

如此有效，這是全年下滑影響我們全年業績的季度。

When we think about what's going to happen in terms of our absolutes, we expect the third quarter to be the lowest absolute.

當我們考慮絕對值會發生什麼時，我們預計第三季度的絕對值最低。

And that's going to be driven by normal seasonal factors, the plant shutdowns in the U.S. and Europe but also the launch of the Expedition and the Navigator.

這將受到正常的季節性因素、美國和歐洲的工廠關閉以及 Expedition 和 Navigator 的推出的推動。

So with that, let's move on to the next slide, Slide 10.

因此，讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，幻燈片 10。

This is the Automotive segment absolute results.

這是汽車部門的絕對結果。

So $2 billion total profit.

所以總利潤為 20 億美元。

You can see North America, Europe and Asia Pacific profitable.

你可以看到北美、歐洲和亞太地區盈利。

We had losses in South America and Middle East and Africa.

我們在南美、中東和非洲都有損失。

And when you below -- go below the chart, you can see that all of the operations were down on a year-over-year basis with the exception of South America with an improvement.

當你低於 - 低於圖表時，你可以看到除南美洲外，所有業務均同比下降，但有所改善。

Let's go to the following slide.

讓我們轉到下面的幻燈片。

And here, we're looking at the key metrics for the Automotive segment.

在這裡，我們正在研究汽車領域的關鍵指標。

They're all down across the board with the exception of revenue.

除了收入外，它們都全面下滑。

You can see revenue was up a bit, and that is driven by favorable mix.

你可以看到收入有所增加，這是由有利的組合推動的。

These metrics were in the context of a global industry that was about flat on a year-on-year basis.

這些指標是在一個同比基本持平的全球行業背景下得出的。

And if you look at our market share, our market share was down 0.3 point.

如果你看一下我們的市場份額，我們的市場份額下降了 0.3 個百分點。

That was driven by China and by the U.S. And we'll get into the details on that when we get to the appropriate regional slides.

這是由中國和美國推動的。當我們進入適當的區域幻燈片時，我們將詳細介紹這一點。

Let's go to the following slide.

讓我們轉到下面的幻燈片。

So this is what drove the change in profitability for the Automotive segment.

因此，這就是推動汽車部門盈利能力變化的原因。

So $1.6 billion for the company, $1.5 billion in Automotive.

因此，公司需要 16 億美元，汽車需要 15 億美元。

So this is where almost all of the decline for the company occurred.

所以這就是公司幾乎所有的下滑發生的地方。

And as you look at it, you can see there are 3 major drivers.

當您查看它時，您可以看到有 3 個主要驅動因素。

One, unfavorable costs.

一，不利的成本。

So if you look at contribution costs, structural costs, that's $1.2 billion.

因此，如果您查看貢獻成本和結構成本，那就是 12 億美元。

So $1.2 billion of the $1.5 billion was cost increase, and we'll talk about that in detail.

所以 15 億美元中的 12 億美元是成本增加，我們將詳細討論。

Secondly is lower volume.

其次是體積小。

So if you look at the volume and mix and look at the callout box above that, you can see we had $400 million of good news on mix.

因此，如果您查看音量和混合併查看上面的標註框，您會發現我們有 4 億美元的混合好消息。

So that positive story continues in the quarter.

所以這個積極的故事在本季度繼續。

So we had about $0.5 billion of unfavorable performance related to volume.

因此，我們有大約 5 億美元的與銷量相關的不利業績。

That was the second factor.

這是第二個因素。

And the third was around exchange, and that was driven by the sterling, that's the Brexit effect that's coming through, the Canadian dollar and the Brazilian real.

第三個是圍繞匯率，這是由英鎊驅動的，這是正在發生的英國退歐效應，加元和巴西雷亞爾。

So in terms of cost.

所以從成本上來說。

The cost performance was basically around higher warranty expense.

性價比基本上是圍繞更高的保修費用。

So we had guided to, during the quarter, about a $300 million increase related to 2 recalls.

因此，我們在本季度指導了與 2 次召回相關的約 3 億美元的增長。

So that's one effect.

這就是一個效果。

We also had increased reserves for coverages.

我們還增加了保險準備金。

Engineering expense.

工程費用。

So that is not actually emerging opportunities.

所以這實際上並不是新興的機會。

That is increases related to, as Mark was talking about, reallocation of capital to our Fortify pillars.

正如馬克所說，這與將資本重新分配給我們的 Fortify 支柱有關。

So this is around those utilities, the 5 new utilities we've guided to between now and the end of the year.

所以這是圍繞這些公用事業，從現在到今年年底我們指導的 5 個新公用事業。

So you're seeing the engineering come through for that as well as on trucks and vans and commercial vehicles.

所以你看到了工程以及卡車、貨車和商用車的工程。

Product cost, that's basically the effect of the launches that we had last year post-first quarter.

產品成本，這基本上是我們去年第一季度後推出的產品的影響。

And Super Duty is the biggest one, which took place in the second half.

Super Duty 是最大的一場，發生在下半場。

So on a year-over-year basis, we're seeing that cost because it actually wasn't in the first quarter a year ago.

因此，與去年同期相比，我們看到了這一成本，因為它實際上不在一年前的第一季度。

And finally, commodities.

最後，商品。

And we'll talk about that next slide.

我們將討論下一張幻燈片。

So when we look at full year for costs, we're up $1.2 billion in the quarter.

因此，當我們查看全年的成本時，本季度我們增加了 12 億美元。

So how should we think about that?

那麼我們應該如何考慮呢？

If you look at the lower left or rather the left side of this slide, this is what we're expecting for the full year.

如果您查看這張幻燈片的左下角或左側，這就是我們對全年的預期。

It's just a bit more than $1.2 billion.

它僅略高於 12 億美元。

So again, just as I talked about on profits, for costs, our view is that basically, the cost increase that we're seeing in the quarter is a cost increase that flows through to the full year.

因此，正如我談到的利潤一樣，對於成本，我們的觀點是，基本上，我們在本季度看到的成本增長是貫穿全年的成本增長。

When you look at the second, third and fourth quarters individually, there'll be some ups and downs.

當你單獨看第二、第三和第四季度時，會有一些起伏。

But again, if I look at the aggregate of those quarters, costs should be effectively flat or maybe up a little bit.

但同樣，如果我看一下這些季度的總和，成本實際上應該持平或者可能略有上升。

Now this is the same slide that we showed at Deutsche Bank when we gave our initial guidance for the year.

現在，這是我們在德意志銀行給出今年初步指導時展示的同一張幻燈片。

The pattern of ups and downs is exactly the same as what we talked about at Deutsche Bank.

漲跌的格局和我們在德意志銀行講的完全一樣。

If you go to the far right of the slide, those are the increases related to emerging opportunities.

如果你去幻燈片的最右邊，那些是與新興機會相關的增長。

Those are the investments in costs, electrification, autonomy, mobility, connectivity, data and analytics.

這些是在成本、電氣化、自主性、移動性、連接性、數據和分析方面的投資。

That is going to represent about 2/3 of the full year cost increase.

這將佔全年成本增長的 2/3 左右。

So if you take that bar and move it all the way to the left, that's about 2/3 of that.

所以如果你把那個條一直移動到左邊，那大約是它的 2/3。

The balance is basically the net of the rest, which is around the core business.

餘額基本上是圍繞核心業務的其餘部分的淨額。

We're still expecting to see efficiencies net of economics of about nearly $3 billion, and that is net of commodity increases of over $1 billion.

我們仍然預計扣除經濟效益後的效率將達到近 30 億美元，而扣除商品增長後的效率將超過 10 億美元。

So those efficiencies mostly offset the investments in the core business; also price-related design, which actually brings revenue with it; and also regulatory costs.

因此，這些效率主要抵消了對核心業務的投資；還有與價格相關的設計，這實際上帶來了收入；以及監管成本。

So this is our view for the full year.

所以這是我們對全年的看法。

So just as with profits, we think most of the cost increase for the full year that's happened in the quarter flows through to the full year.

因此，就像利潤一樣，我們認為本季度發生的全年成本增長的大部分都流向了全年。

And let me just make an additional comment, an exclamation point on costs.

讓我再做一個評論，一個關於成本的感嘆號。

We are continuing our intense focus on costs, and the reason for that is not only mindful of the current environment that we're in but also, I think, preparing us even more for a downturn scenario, which we've talked to you about in the past.

我們將繼續密切關注成本，這樣做的原因不僅是考慮到我們目前所處的環境，而且我認為，我們還要為經濟衰退的情況做更多的準備，我們已經和你談過了在過去。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move on to the first of the regions, North America.

讓我們繼續討論第一個地區，北美。

Many of the things I talked about for the Automotive segment apply directly to North America.

我談到的汽車領域的許多事情直接適用於北美。

So these are the key metrics.

所以這些是關鍵指標。

You can see they are lower with the exception of revenue.

你可以看到除了收入之外它們都較低。

And as with the Automotive segment, that revenue is driven by favorable mix.

與汽車部門一樣，該收入是由有利的組合驅動的。

This was in an industry that was down about 300,000 units.

這是一個減少了約 300,000 台的行業。

That was both for the region, but it was driven by the U.S.

這既是針對該地區的，也是由美國推動的。

Our market share was lower for the region.

我們在該地區的市場份額較低。

It was driven again by the U.S. Market share in the U.S. was down 0.4 point.

它再次受到美國的推動。在美國的市場份額下降了 0.4 個百分點。

That was more than explained by fleet.

這超出了艦隊的解釋。

Fleet was down 0.6 point.

艦隊下降了 0.6 個百分點。

Within that, about half of that was rental.

其中，大約一半是租金。

The rest was commercial and government fleets.

其餘的是商業和政府艦隊。

We think that's largely timing.

我們認為這主要是時機。

That was offset partially by an improved retail share.

這部分被零售份額的提高所抵消。

It was up 0.2 point.

它上漲了0.2點。

And that was strong performance of F-Series, utilities and also Lincoln.

這就是 F 系列、公用事業和林肯的強勁表現。

Let's move to the next slide and look at the decline in profitability.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，看看盈利能力的下降。

For North America, $1.1 billion from the record results last year.

對於北美，去年創紀錄的業績為 11 億美元。

And you can see it's exactly the same pattern of things that I talked about for the Automotive segment, and it's exactly the same reasons.

你可以看到這與我在汽車領域談到的完全相同的模式，而且原因也完全相同。

So I won't go into details here.

所以這裡就不細說了。

But that pattern continued here.

但這種模式在這裡繼續存在。

In terms of guidance for the full year.

在全年指導方面。

It's essentially the same thing that I said earlier.

這與我之前所說的本質上是一樣的。

We're expecting North America to be solid in terms of it's-- actually strong for its full year results but down from last year.

我們預計北美在全年業績方面表現強勁，但低於去年。

It's going to be driven due to higher costs.

由於更高的成本，它將被推動。

We think we'll also see some efficiencies coming through in all the other cost categories that will give us a partial offset.

我們認為我們還會看到所有其他成本類別的效率提高，這將使我們部分抵消。

We also see exchange as being unfavorable.

我們也認為交換是不利的。

And the majority, just as we talked about for the total business in Automotive, the majority of North America's full year profit decline and increasing costs has occurred in the first quarter.

而大多數，正如我們談到的汽車總業務一樣，北美全年利潤下降和成本增加的大部分發生在第一季度。

So if we turn to Slide 16, what I'd like to do is just dive a bit deeper into our disciplined approach to the marketplace.

因此，如果我們轉到幻燈片 16，我想做的只是更深入地了解我們對市場的嚴格方法。

So for example, if you look at the upper left of the chart here, our average transaction prices in the first quarter grew nearly 4x faster than the industry.

因此，例如，如果您在這裡查看圖表的左上角，我們第一季度的平均交易價格增長速度比行業快近 4 倍。

And that's really due to the great performance of F-Series and the continued growth of Lincoln, as I mentioned earlier.

正如我之前提到的，這真的要歸功於 F 系列的出色表現和林肯的持續增長。

In addition, like F-150, we reinvested some of the Super Duty aluminum weight savings into capability and features our customers appreciate and, most importantly, are willing to pay for.

此外，與 F-150 一樣，我們將一些 Super Duty 鋁製重量減輕重新投入到我們的客戶欣賞的功能和特性中，最重要的是，他們願意為此付費。

We also saw F-150 transaction prices increase with strong demand for the new Raptor.

我們還看到 F-150 的交易價格隨著對新猛禽的強勁需求而上漲。

At the same time, we also continued our disciplined approach to incentives.

與此同時，我們還繼續嚴格執行激勵措施。

And while incentives grew for the industry, as you can see, Ford levels were relatively flat as we manage supply and demand and well and that we benefit obviously from the strength of our new products.

正如你所看到的，雖然該行業的激勵措施有所增加，但福特的水平相對平穩，因為我們管理好供需關係，而且我們明顯受益於我們新產品的優勢。

If you look at stocks.

如果你看股票。

Our U.S. stocks are in very good shape, and we continue to take a disciplined approach to matching production to demand.

我們的美國庫存狀況非常好，我們將繼續採取嚴格的方法來使生產與需求相匹配。

And just to note, our days supply, Ford's days supply tends to be slightly higher than the industry average because of our stronger position in trucks due to the large number of product configurations, which is a real strength of ours.

需要注意的是，我們的天數供應量，福特的天數供應量往往略高於行業平均水平，因為我們在卡車方面的地位更強，因為產品配置眾多，這是我們的真正實力。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move on to South America, and this is a story of improvement.

讓我們繼續南美洲，這是一個進步的故事。

This is the second consecutive quarter where all the metrics have improved, and this was in an industry that actually did grow.

這是所有指標連續第二個季度有所改善，而且這個行業確實在增長。

You can see the SAAR was up 3%.

你可以看到 SAAR 上漲了 3%。

Brazil, unfortunately, didn't grow.

不幸的是，巴西沒有增長。

But the positive sign was that in the month of March, for the first time in 24 months, we had a monthly improvement in the SAAR.

但積極的跡像是，在 3 月份，這是 24 個月以來的第一次，我們的 SAAR 每月都有改善。

So we are seeing positive signs, even in Brazil, start to show up.

因此，我們看到積極的跡像開始出現，即使在巴西也是如此。

We did generate positive revenue in the quarter.

我們確實在本季度產生了正收入。

And that was around volume, pricing and exchange.

那是關於數量、定價和交換的。

And our market share was up, and that was on the back of the strength of the Ka, our subcompact, as well as the Ranger.

我們的市場份額上升了，這要歸功於我們的超小型車 Ka 以及 Ranger 的實力。

If we go to the following slides, we can see what happened in terms of causal factor.

如果我們轉到下面的幻燈片，我們可以看到在因果因素方面發生了什麼。

It was driven by higher net pricing and volume.

這是由更高的淨定價和銷量推動的。

Those were the key drivers.

這些是關鍵驅動因素。

Inflation is what was behind the total cost increase.

通貨膨脹是總成本增加的原因。

And then you can see the exchange, which was driven by the real.

然後你可以看到由真實驅動的交換。

In terms of guidance.

在指導方面。

We are seeing signs of improvement in the economic environment of South America.

我們看到了南美經濟環境改善的跡象。

PMIs are looking better.

PMI 看起來更好。

Consumer confidence is better.

消費者信心更好。

The Central Bank has been cutting its policy rates pretty aggressively.

中央銀行一直在相當積極地削減其政策利率。

And so we believe that we are close to the trough of this current economic cycle.

因此，我們認為我們已接近當前經濟周期的低谷。

As a result, we continue to believe that South America will see an improvement in terms of the loss this year relative to last year.

因此，我們仍然相信南美洲今年的虧損將比去年有所改善。

And that will be driven by the favorable market factors tied to the economic recovery.

這將受到與經濟復甦相關的有利市場因素的推動。

We think most of the improvement for the full year will take place in the second half of the year, and that's tied to the momentum that we expect to start to occur in terms of the economic environment.

我們認為全年的大部分改善將發生在下半年，這與我們預計在經濟環境方面開始出現的勢頭有關。

Well, let's move to Europe.

好吧，讓我們搬到歐洲。

Europe has another profitable quarter, the eighth in a row.

歐洲又迎來了一個盈利的季度，這是連續第八個季度。

So feeling very good about what's happening in Europe despite the effects of Brexit.

因此，儘管受到英國脫歐的影響，但對歐洲正在發生的事情感覺非常好。

We're seeing a growing industry in which we gain share.

我們看到一個不斷發展的行業，我們在其中獲得了份額。

So very positive overall performance across our European business.

我們歐洲業務的整體表現非常積極。

You can see that revenue was up.

你可以看到收入增加了。

That was driven by volume and mix.

這是由數量和混合驅動的。

The share was up.

份額上升了。

This was driven by Kuga and our commercial vehicles.

這是由 Kuga 和我們的商用車驅動的。

And once again, in the quarter, the Ford brand was the #1 selling commercial vehicle brand in the market.

在本季度，福特品牌再次成為市場上銷量第一的商用車品牌。

So feel very good about that performance.

所以對那個表現感覺非常好。

When you go to the following slide and look what's behind the results, you can see that the results, while profitable, they were down on a year-over-year basis.

當您轉到下一張幻燈片並查看結果背後的內容時，您會發現結果雖然有利可圖，但與去年同期相比有所下降。

And this is due to higher costs, some of that associated with the launch of the all-new Fiesta, some of it related to increased manufacturing costs to support the higher volume that we're projecting for the full year, but also related to a recall.

這是由於更高的成本，其中一些與全新嘉年華的推出有關，其中一些與製造成本增加有關，以支持我們全年預計的更高銷量，但也與記起。

So Europe was one of the business units that was affected by the recalls that we announced during the first quarter.

因此，歐洲是受到我們在第一季度宣布的召回事件影響的業務部門之一。

About $100 million affected their results for that particular factor.

大約 1 億美元影響了該特定因素的結果。

In terms of our outlook for Europe.

就我們對歐洲的展望而言。

We continue to expect Europe to remain profitable although at levels below 2016.

我們繼續預計歐洲將保持盈利，儘管低於 2016 年的水平。

The key factors driving the decline are going to be the weaker sterling but also higher costs particularly associated with the launch of the Fiesta and the EcoSport, which is coming later this year, as well as for continued investment for future growth.

推動下降的關鍵因素將是英鎊走弱，但也包括更高的成本，尤其是與今年晚些時候推出的嘉年華和 EcoSport 相關的成本，以及對未來增長的持續投資。

We do expect to see favorable market factors.

我們確實希望看到有利的市場因素。

And we saw in quarter, again, and we expect for the full year to see continued improvement in Russia.

我們再次看到了季度，我們預計全年俄羅斯的情況會持續改善。

The majority of the full year profit decline in 2016 is expected to occur in the first half of this year due to cost and stock effects related to the Fiesta launch and also the major recall I just referenced to that took place in the first quarter.

2016 年全年利潤下降的大部分預計將發生在今年上半年，原因是與嘉年華髮布相關的成本和庫存影響，以及我剛才提到的主要召回發生在第一季度。

So let me just provide a couple additional comments on our European business.

因此，讓我就我們的歐洲業務提供一些額外的評論。

And I just want to reemphasize that we remain committed to our strategy in Europe, as you know, which has been focused on product, brand and cost, and taking the actions necessary to ensure that our business not only remains competitive but also delivers sustainable returns.

我只想再次強調，正如您所知，我們仍然致力於我們在歐洲的戰略，該戰略一直專注於產品、品牌和成本，並採取必要行動確保我們的業務不僅保持競爭力，而且提供可持續的回報.

So on that, on the revenue side, we'll continue to take actions to increase the mix of higher-margin vehicles.

因此，在收入方面，我們將繼續採取行動增加高利潤車輛的組合。

That includes adding the ST line for both EcoSport and S-MAX in the second half of this year and also launching what we call the Active and then the Vignale trim levels on the new Fiesta.

這包括在今年下半年為 EcoSport 和 S-MAX 添加 ST 系列，並在新嘉年華上推出我們所謂的 Active 和 Vignale 內飾級別。

So work on the revenue side of the equation.

所以在等式的收入方面工作。

But let me also just talk about in terms of what we see in the market and addressing specifically the drop in diesel demand in Europe.

但讓我也談談我們在市場上看到的情況，並具體解決歐洲柴油需求下降的問題。

The industry in the quarter was down about 4 points to 46%.

本季度該行業下降了約 4 個百分點至 46%。

Our mix is about 45%, so just a tad lower.

我們的混合比例約為 45%，所以稍微低一點。

And our product and our manufacturing plan is flexible.

我們的產品和製造計劃是靈活的。

And I believe we're well positioned to meet customer demand and also the regulatory compliance through the success of our EcoBoost engines but also our plans for electrification in the region.

而且我相信，通過我們的 EcoBoost 發動機的成功以及我們在該地區的電氣化計劃，我們能夠很好地滿足客戶需求和法規遵從性。

And the diesel engines that we have meet the stringent Stage 6 requirements.

我們的柴油發動機符合嚴格的 Stage 6 要求。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move on to Middle East and Africa.

讓我們轉向中東和非洲。

And here, the story is -- it's basically one word: it's volume.

在這裡，故事是——它基本上是一個詞：它是體積。

The volume is affecting every metric that you can see here on the page, decline in volume.

交易量正在影響您在頁面上可以看到的每個指標，交易量下降。

The industry in which we participate there excludes primarily Iran as the major market that we don't participate in, you can see the SAAR was down 12%.

我們在那裡參與的行業主要不包括伊朗作為我們不參與的主要市場，你可以看到 SAAR 下降了 12%。

And we've also seen lower market share.

我們也看到了較低的市場份額。

That's primarily in the Middle East where we've had some performance issues, and also, we've had adverse market mix.

這主要是在中東，我們在那裡遇到了一些性能問題，而且我們的市場組合也很不利。

So volume is the story in terms of the metrics in Middle East and Africa.

因此，就中東和非洲的指標而言，數量就是故事。

And if you go to the following slide, you can see that very, very clearly here, the causal factor slide, $124 million, more than explained by the volume decline.

如果你轉到下一張幻燈片，你可以在這裡非常非常清楚地看到因果因素幻燈片，1.24 億美元，超過了銷量下降的解釋。

You can see across of the rest of the business, the team has done a great job of managing pricing, keeping that flat.

你可以看到整個業務的其餘部分，團隊在管理定價方面做得很好，保持平穩。

And cost performance has been favorable.

而且性價比一直不錯。

And we've seen some good news on the exchange, and that's related to the South African rand.

我們在交易所看到了一些好消息，這與南非蘭特有關。

For the full year, we continue to expect Middle East and Africa to improve compared with 2016.

對於全年，我們繼續預計中東和非洲地區與 2016 年相比會有所改善。

And that's going to be driven by lower costs and favorable exchange, with lower volume being a partial offset.

這將受到較低成本和有利交換的推動，而較低的銷量會部分抵消。

We do expect that the year-over-year improvement will largely be realized in the second half of the year.

我們確實預計，同比改善將在很大程度上在今年下半年實現。

If we move on now to Asia Pacific.

如果我們現在轉到亞太地區。

In Asia Pacific, there's actually 2 stories.

在亞太地區，實際上有兩個故事。

So there's a China story, and there's a story in the rest of the region.

所以有一個中國的故事，這個地區的其他地方也有一個故事。

China, this was a challenging quarter.

中國，這是一個充滿挑戰的季度。

You can see the industry was down 1.6 million units, which more than explained the decline in the overall region.

你可以看到該行業下降了 160 萬台，這足以解釋整個地區的下降。

This was the effect of payback into the fourth quarter from the stronger fourth quarter performance related to customer expectation that the purchase tax incentive would be eliminated at the end of the year.

這是由於客戶預期購置稅激勵措施將在年底取消而導致第四季度的強勁表現對第四季度的回報產生的影響。

As it turned out, only half of it was.

事實證明，只有一半是。

But it clearly had an effect on the industry.

但它顯然對行業產生了影響。

It had an effect on us.

它對我們產生了影響。

Our share is down, and that was largely around the units that were most affected by that purchase tax incentive.

我們的份額下降了，這主要是圍繞受購置稅激勵影響最大的單位。

That was the Escort and the Focus.

那就是 Escort 和 Focus。

And when you look at our JVs, you can see it affected them as well.

當您查看我們的合資企業時，您會發現它也影響了它們。

We earned a good profit of $274 million on a net basis with a margin of 13%, but that was down on a full year basis.

我們的淨利潤為 2.74 億美元，利潤率為 13%，但與全年相比有所下降。

The other part of the story is around the rest of the region.

故事的另一部分是圍繞該地區的其他地區。

The rest of the region was profitable.

該地區的其他地區是有利可圖的。

Every market other than India was profitable, and every market including India improved on a year-over-year basis.

除印度以外的每個市場都有利可圖，包括印度在內的每個市場都同比有所改善。

If we go to the next slide and look at the factors behind the change in Asia Pacific, largely driven by what happened in China.

如果我們轉到下一張幻燈片，看看亞太地區變化背後的因素，主要是由中國發生的事情推動的。

And you can see that with the net pricing.

您可以通過淨定價看到這一點。

That's the negative industry pricing in China, the volume effect.

這就是中國的負行業定價，數量效應。

And then you can see we're able to hold costs flat, and a bit of exchange that was more than explained by the weakness of the renminbi.

然後你會看到我們能夠保持成本持平，以及人民幣疲軟所無法解釋的一點匯率。

For the full year, we continue to expect to be profitable in Asia Pacific and to actually improve versus 2016.

對於全年，我們繼續期望在亞太地區實現盈利，並實際比 2016 年有所改善。

And that's going to be due to higher volume.

這將是由於更高的音量。

We believe we'll see recovery of volume in the balance of the year.

我們相信我們會在今年餘下時間看到銷量回升。

We expect costs to be about flat.

我們預計成本將持平。

We will continue to see negative net pricing, and we do expect to see adverse exchange related to the weaker renminbi.

我們將繼續看到負淨定價，我們確實預計會看到與人民幣貶值相關的不利匯率。

And as Bob mentioned, obviously, the China tax incentive change drove a pull ahead in sales of cars, obviously, with the smaller than the 1.6-liter engines into the fourth quarter of last year.

正如 Bob 提到的那樣，很明顯，中國稅收激勵措施的變化推動了汽車銷量的增長，顯然，比 1.6 升發動機更小的車型進入了去年第四季度。

But there's no doubt we faced higher competition and also our own market performance issues in China.

但毫無疑問，我們在中國面臨更激烈的競爭以及我們自己的市場表現問題。

And we've taken actions to respond, and that includes changes in our go-to-market plan.

我們已採取行動做出回應，其中包括改變我們的上市計劃。

And we do expect to return to growth in China from the second quarter onwards for the balance of the year as both the industry strengthens and our go-to-market changes take effect in the marketplace.

我們確實希望從第二季度開始在今年餘下的時間裡在中國恢復增長，因為行業實力增強，我們的上市變化在市場上生效。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move into Ford Credit.

讓我們進入福特信貸。

There's been a lot of concern, a lot of articles written, a lot of papers written over auto financing in the broadest sense of the word.

從廣義上講，有很多關於汽車融資的擔憂，很多文章，很多論文。

And we've actually been talking about that for a year.

我們實際上已經討論了一年。

All I can tell you is that we feel like we're in a really good place with Ford Credit and with Ford based on what we see today, what we know today and how we've kind of factored that into our outlook.

我只能告訴你的是，根據我們今天所看到的、我們今天所知道的以及我們如何將其納入我們的前景，我們覺得我們在福特信貸和福特方面處於一個非常好的位置。

If you look at the metrics here, you can see in the second set of data there, that the business grew.

如果您查看此處的指標，您可以在此處的第二組數據中看到業務增長。

Managed receivables were up 6%.

管理的應收賬款增長了 6%。

Pretax results fell only 6% to $481 million.

稅前業績僅下降 6% 至 4.81 億美元。

When you look at some of the portfolio metrics, the next 3 sets of data, the FICO scores, very, very strong at 741.

當你查看一些投資組合指標時，接下來的 3 組數據，FICO 分數非常非常高，為 741。

That's on average.

這是平均水平。

You can see delinquencies are up a bit but still below the historical experience that we've had.

你可以看到拖欠率有所上升，但仍低於我們的歷史經驗。

But it's moving up.

但它正在上升。

It's still not even half that level.

它甚至還不到那個水平的一半。

And then in terms of the loss receivables, it's approaching historical performance but still at a very healthy level.

然後就應收賬款損失而言，它正在接近歷史表現，但仍處於非常健康的水平。

So the portfolio is performing as we have expected in the environment that we had expected.

因此，投資組合在我們預期的環境中的表現符合我們的預期。

And that's because the team continues to follow the same tried and true, disciplined and consistent practices around servicing and origination that we've been following for many, many years.

這是因為團隊繼續遵循我們多年來一直遵循的有關服務和起源的相同的經過驗證的、真實的、有紀律的和一致的實踐。

If you go to the following slide and you look at the decline of $33 million of profitability and look at the very middle, it's around the lease residuals.

如果你轉到下一張幻燈片，你會看到 3300 萬美元的盈利能力下降，並看到最中間的部分，它圍繞著租賃殘差。

And that's the supplemental depreciation that the team has taken in response to what we have seen in terms of auction values.

這就是團隊為回應我們在拍賣價值方面所看到的情況而採取的補充折舊。

The rest of the factors on a net basis actually improved, driven by the favorable volume and mix of the business on a global basis.

在全球範圍內有利的業務量和業務組合的推動下，其他因素在淨基礎上實際上有所改善。

So nothing that's here that to us is a surprise or was unexpected.

所以這裡沒有什麼讓我們感到驚訝或出乎意料的。

If you go to the following slides, looking at financing trends.

如果你轉到下面的幻燈片，看看融資趨勢。

Again, everything in line with our expectations.

同樣，一切都符合我們的預期。

If you look at the upper left in terms of our lease share as a percent of retail sales, you can see that both the industry and ourselves are beginning to pull back.

如果你看看左上角我們的租賃份額佔零售額的百分比，你會發現這個行業和我們自己都開始撤退。

If you compare that back to the first quarter of 2016, we continue to track below the industry largely because of our product mix.

如果將其與 2016 年第一季度進行比較，我們將繼續低於行業水平，這主要是因為我們的產品組合。

If you look at auction values in the upper right, we actually saw a sequential improvement in auction values.

如果您查看右上角的拍賣價值，我們實際上看到了拍賣價值的連續改善。

That's seasonality.

這就是季節性。

If you look at the 2017 first quarter versus 2016 first quarter, that's a 7% decline in auction values.

如果你看看 2017 年第一季度與 2016 年第一季度的對比，拍賣價值下降了 7%。

That's consistent with the industry.

這與行業一致。

Our view for the full year is that it will be about 6% on average.

我們對全年的看法是平均約為 6%。

So you'll see different factors by quarter point to point, but on average, about 6%.

所以你會看到不同的因素按季度點到點，但平均約為 6%。

And everything we see says that we're on track for that.

我們所看到的一切都表明我們正在朝著這個方向前進。

On the lower left, everything looks good in terms of what we're seeing relative to repossession ratios and severity.

在左下角，就我們所看到的收回比率和嚴重程度而言，一切看起來都很好。

And we've already covered the LTRs on the lower right.

我們已經覆蓋了右下角的 LTR。

So again, everything very much in line with our expectations.

再次如此，一切都非常符合我們的預期。

And then on the next slide, we just try to capture everything that we've been looking at and everything we've been reading about in terms of concerns and trends around the financing industry.

然後在下一張幻燈片上，我們只是試圖捕捉我們一直在關注的一切，以及我們在金融行業的擔憂和趨勢方面一直在閱讀的一切。

And our view is that both Ford and Ford Credit's outlooks have incorporated these industry trends appropriate.

我們的觀點是，福特和福特信貸的前景都適當地納入了這些行業趨勢。

And as a result, Ford Credit itself is on track for the profit that we've guided to for the full year of $1.5 billion, with an expectation that their results will improve in 2018 as a result of less supplemental depreciation.

因此，福特信貸本身有望實現我們指導的全年 15 億美元的利潤，預計由於補充折舊減少，他們的業績將在 2018 年有所改善。

If we go to the following slide, which is Slide 29.

如果我們轉到下一張幻燈片，即幻燈片 29。

So this is around cash flow.

所以這是圍繞現金流的。

So solid performance on cash flow.

現金流表現如此穩健。

If you look at the first -- maybe the fourth line there, I guess, Automotive segment pretax profit at $2 billion, it basically flowed right through to the operating cash flow.

如果你看第一條——也許是第四條線，我猜，汽車部門的稅前利潤為 20 億美元，它基本上直接流入了運營現金流。

So the negative net spend was completely offset by the combination of the working capital and the timing differences.

因此，負淨支出完全被營運資金和時間差異相結合所抵消。

If you look at the capital spending, the $1.7 billion, it suggests to us that we're on track to the full year guidance of $7 billion.

如果你看一下 17 億美元的資本支出，它向我們表明我們有望實現 70 億美元的全年指導。

If you go further down the page, you can see the changes in debt, $200 million.

如果您進一步向下瀏覽頁面，您可以看到債務的變化，2 億美元。

That is just us making normal debt repayments.

那隻是我們正常償還債務。

The pension contributions in the quarter at $200 million, that's in line with our full year plan of $1 billion.

本季度的養老金繳款為 2 億美元，符合我們 10 億美元的全年計劃。

No change there.

那裡沒有變化。

And in terms of the shareholder distributions, Mark mentioned that.

在股東分配方面，馬克提到了這一點。

That's in line with our plan for the year of $2.7 billion.

這符合我們今年 27 億美元的計劃。

And then finally for me, on the balance sheet.

最後對我來說，在資產負債表上。

Very simply put, auto cash liquidity balance is strong.

簡而言之，汽車現金流動性餘額充足。

So Automotive is looking strong.

因此，汽車行業看起來很強勁。

Ford Credit is looking strong, well capitalized and strong liquidity.

福特信貸看起來實力雄厚、資本充足且流動性強。

And when we go down and look at the pensions, everything that we're seeing right now relative to asset returns, discount rates, our plan contributions would suggest that our funded status at the end of the year should improve compared with the end of last year.

當我們往下看養老金時，我們現在看到的所有與資產回報、貼現率、我們的計劃供款相關的東西都表明我們年底的資金狀況應該比去年年底有所改善年。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑勃。

So since our last discussion, we've updated some of our expectations for the full year industry sales for all the major markets.

因此，自上次討論以來，我們更新了對所有主要市場全年行業銷售額的一些預期。

So if we look at the new news here on Slide 31, it's really within the industry.

因此，如果我們查看幻燈片 31 上的新消息，它確實屬於行業內。

And we now expect Brazil to be slightly higher in 2017, and that reflects, as Bob mentioned, better performance from the fleet sector.

我們現在預計巴西在 2017 年會略高，正如 Bob 提到的那樣，這反映了車隊部門的更好表現。

In Europe, we expect the industry volume to be slightly higher compared to our prior guidance in 2017 and '18.

在歐洲，我們預計行業銷量將略高於我們之前在 2017 年和 18 年的指導。

And that really reflects gains across most of the EU 20 markets with the exception of the U.K.

這確實反映了除英國以外的大多數歐盟 20 國市場的收益。

And then turning to China, we expect the industry volume to be higher at 28.2 million units in 2017 and then flat in 2018.

然後轉向中國，我們預計 2017 年行業銷量將更高，達到 2820 萬台，然後在 2018 年持平。

And that really reflects the positive economic momentum that we've seen in the first quarter.

這確實反映了我們在第一季度看到的積極經濟勢頭。

Just to note, we continue to expect the U.S. to decline slightly this year but remaining at a historically high level.

需要注意的是，我們繼續預計美國今年將略有下降，但仍將保持在歷史高位。

On Slide 32, our 2017 company outlook continues to be consistent with previous guidance.

在幻燈片 32 中，我們 2017 年的公司展望繼續與之前的指引一致。

And then turning to our business unit guidance on Slide 33, you can see our latest assessment of what we call puts and takes for each of the regions or segments compared to the results from a year ago.

然後轉向我們在幻燈片 33 上的業務部門指南，您可以看到我們對每個地區或細分市場的最新評估與一年前的結果相比。

And while our guidance remains unchanged, we are seeing a significant increase in headwinds from higher commodities, and that's mainly steel, but we see it across most commodity groups.

雖然我們的指引保持不變，但我們看到來自大宗商品價格上漲的不利因素顯著增加，主要是鋼鐵，但我們在大多數大宗商品類別中都看到了這一點。

And as I mentioned earlier, we're increasing our efforts to deliver greater cost efficiencies across all parts of the business to mitigate this headwind and, of course, further improve the fitness of our overall business.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在加大努力，在業務的所有部分提供更高的成本效率，以減輕這種逆風，當然，進一步提高我們整體業務的健康度。

Turning to Slide 34.

轉到幻燈片 34。

Again, we expect total company adjusted pretax profit this year to be about $9 billion, and that sets up a platform for a stronger result in 2018.

同樣，我們預計今年公司調整後的稅前利潤總額約為 90 億美元，這為 2018 年取得更強勁的業績奠定了基礎。

We do expect this improvement to be led by gains in our core business.

我們確實希望這種改善將由我們核心業務的收益帶動。

And that's thanks to the full year availability of important new high-margin vehicles like the Navigator and the Expedition.

這要歸功於 Navigator 和 Expedition 等重要的新型高利潤車型全年上市。

But we also expect F-Series to continue to perform well in the market.

但我們也預計 F 系列將繼續在市場上表現出色。

As Bob mentioned, we also anticipate Ford Credit to benefit from lower supplemental depreciation.

正如鮑勃所提到的，我們還預計福特信貸將從較低的補充折舊中受益。

And at the same time, we'll continue to invest in the emerging opportunities that will drive not only future growth for the company but profitability as well.

與此同時，我們將繼續投資新興機會，這些機會不僅會推動公司未來的增長，還會推動盈利能力。

So putting it all together on Slide 34 -- 35, we delivered a solid quarter.

因此，將所有內容放在幻燈片 34 - 35 上，我們交付了一個穩定的季度。

And again, we continue to expect to deliver another good year for this year in line with our previous guidance.

再一次，我們繼續期望根據我們之前的指導，今年再創佳績。

And then just wrapping it up on Slide 36 before we open it up for Q&A.

然後在我們打開它進行問答之前將其包裝在幻燈片 36 上。

We have a very clear vision and strategy for our business going forward.

我們對未來的業務有非常清晰的願景和戰略。

We remain fully focused on the strategic priorities that will drive value as we continue our expansion to an auto and a mobility company.

隨著我們繼續向汽車和移動公司擴張，我們仍然完全專注於將推動價值的戰略重點。

We're focused on fortifying our core strengths, transforming the underperforming parts of our business and investing aggressively but also prudently in emerging opportunities.

我們專注於鞏固我們的核心優勢，轉變我們業務中表現不佳的部分，並積極但謹慎地投資新興機會。

And I believe that we're already well along the process of transforming our business from a business that's a strong healthy automotive company to one that will be even stronger and bigger going forward.

而且我相信，我們已經在將我們的業務從一家強大健康的汽車公司轉變為一家未來會更強大、更大的公司的過程中順利進行。

And as usual, we look forward to sharing with you our progress throughout the year.

和往常一樣，我們期待與您分享我們全年的進展。

And with that, I'd like to have my colleagues join me, and we could take any questions that you might have.

因此，我想讓我的同事加入我的行列，我們可以回答你們可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Colin Langan of UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan。

Actually, talking about the last slide, you talk about transform and the focus on luxury, small car and emerging opportunities.

實際上，在談到最後一張幻燈片時，您談到了轉型以及對豪華車、小型車和新興機會的關注。

Can you give any color on what is the time line for getting those on track and fixed in particular there's been a lot of chatter around small cars and those may be possibly losing money.

你能給出任何顏色讓這些車走上正軌並修復的時間線是什麼嗎？特別是關於小型車的討論很多，而且這些車可能會賠錢。

And so any plans to how could you get those back to profitability?

那麼有什麼計劃可以讓這些恢復盈利嗎？

Thanks, Colin.

謝謝，科林。

It's Mark.

是馬克。

And as you said, we're going to stay very focused on our strategy of fortify, transform and grow.

正如您所說，我們將非常專注於鞏固、轉型和發展的戰略。

And as you think of the transform areas, listen, in some of these cases, we've said it's a journey and we want to show continual improvement.

當你想到轉型領域時，請聽，在其中一些情況下，我們說過這是一段旅程，我們希望展示持續改進。

And if you look at each one of those areas, if you look at luxury, we've talked about not only the sales growth that we've had with Lincoln, but if you look at what I'd call the high gain factors of the brand in terms of how the brand is viewed in terms of customer sat, both on the service and the sales end, both here in the U.S. and in China, we've made a lot of progress.

如果你看看這些領域中的每一個，如果你看看奢侈品，我們不僅討論了我們與林肯的銷售增長，而且如果你看看我稱之為高收益因素的因素就品牌在客戶滿意度方面的看法而言，無論是在服務還是銷售端，無論是在美國還是在中國，我們都取得了很大的進步。

We've announced the localization of production of a Lincoln SUV in China, which is going to help the profitability.

我們已經宣佈在中國生產林肯 SUV，這將有助於盈利。

So we're seeing we have very clear metrics around this.

所以我們看到我們有非常明確的指標。

We're on plan.

我們在計劃中。

And as we said, going back to our Investor Day, we want to make sure that our sales success is matched with financial success with Lincoln, and we're in the process of making improvements and on that journey.

正如我們所說，回到我們的投資者日，我們希望確保我們的銷售成功與林肯的財務成功相匹配，我們正在進行改進並踏上這段旅程。

In the case of small vehicles, again, we've talked about some of the key elements that drive small vehicle profitability, reducing complexity.

對於小型車，我們再次討論了推動小型車盈利的一些關鍵因素，降低了複雜性。

And we've talked about how we've significantly reduced complexity of vehicles, like our Focus and Fiesta, and continue that going forward with the next models.

我們已經討論了我們如何顯著降低車輛的複雜性，例如我們的 Focus 和 Fiesta，並在下一代車型中繼續這樣做。

We've talked about low-cost production, and we've been very clear in moving our production here in North America for our small vehicles to low-cost areas and even in the case of Europe, with the launch of EcoSport in Romania.

我們已經討論過低成本生產，我們已經非常明確地將我們在北美的小型車輛生產轉移到低成本地區，甚至在歐洲，在羅馬尼亞推出 EcoSport。

So we're going to continue to make progress on that and show you the proof points along the way.

因此，我們將繼續在這方面取得進展，並向您展示一路上的證據。

And then finally, in emerging markets, obviously, last year, we took actions to exit some markets and also to close our plant in Australia, which is one of the reasons, as Bob mentioned, outside of China, our operations are profitable, including Australia.

最後，在新興市場，顯然，去年，我們採取行動退出了一些市場，並關閉了我們在澳大利亞的工廠，這是 Bob 提到的原因之一，我們在中國以外的業務是盈利的，包括澳大利亞。

And we said we're in the process of examining our strategy in India.

我們說我們正在審查我們在印度的戰略。

And when we have something to talk about, we will.

當我們有話要談的時候，我們會的。

But we will continue to work this and keep you apprised.

但我們將繼續努力，並隨時通知您。

Actually, on your last point, that was sort of the more interesting comments when Bob was going through his question -- his commentary.

實際上，關於你的最後一點，那是 Bob 在回答他的問題時發表的更有趣的評論——他的評論。

So when we look at Asia Pac, we take out China, it's losing about $150 million, but everything except India is actually making money.

所以當我們看亞太地區時，我們去掉中國，它損失了大約 1.5 億美元，但實際上除了印度以外的所有地方都在賺錢。

So is India really losing?

那麼印度真的輸了嗎？

Is that the pace?

是這個節奏嗎？

And what can you do to kind of address that?

你能做些什麼來解決這個問題？

Or are there other factors in that $150 million loss that I'm not thinking about?

還是有其他我沒有考慮到的 1.5 億美元損失因素？

Well, let me just be clear.

好吧，讓我說清楚。

First of all, China made money in the quarter.

首先，中國在這個季度賺了錢。

And you have to remember that China has a number of different components.

你必須記住，中國有許多不同的組成部分。

It's the JVs.

這是合資企業。

It's Lincoln.

是林肯。

It's the imported Ford brand.

這是進口的福特品牌。

It's also charges that we hold centrally like around engineering that we're incurring today that would be compensated for in the future through royalties from the JVs.

這也是我們集中控制的費用，例如我們今天發生的工程費用，這些費用將在未來通過合資企業的特許權使用費得到補償。

So China made money.

所以中國賺錢了。

Outside of China, we made money.

在中國以外，我們賺了錢。

In fact, the only major market that didn't make money was India, and India improved.

事實上，唯一沒有賺錢的主要市場是印度，印度有所改善。

So we saw improvement everywhere through the region outside of China, and we're profitable.

因此，我們在中國以外的地區看到了無處不在的進步，而且我們是盈利的。

So it was -- if you will, both sides of the equation were working for us in terms of profitability in the region.

所以它是 - 如果你願意，就該地區的盈利能力而言，等式的兩邊都為我們工作。

But yes, as we talked about, China was a challenge.

但是，正如我們所說，中國是一個挑戰。

And as Mark mentioned, we do expect and already starting to see signs of that improvement both in terms of the overall market but our own performance as well.

正如馬克所提到的，我們確實期望並且已經開始看到整體市場和我們自己的表現都有改善的跡象。

Our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 David Tamberrino。

I think the first one I want to harp on is we've seen a lot of the banks' earnings so far this year and -- or this quarter.

我想我想強調的第一個是今年到目前為止我們已經看到了很多銀行的收益——或者這個季度。

And most of them talk about pulling back on their auto loan profiles.

他們中的大多數人都在談論取消他們的汽車貸款資料。

So it seems as if credit is somewhat tightening from that perspective.

因此，從這個角度來看，信貸似乎有所收緊。

Do you anticipate or do you expect to grow your asset base within Ford Motor Credit as you might see a little bit more challenging times for customers being able to get loans from your third-party partners or from other lenders?

您是否預計或期望在福特汽車信貸內擴大您的資產基礎，因為您可能會看到客戶能夠從您的第三方合作夥伴或其他貸方獲得貸款的更具挑戰性的時期？

Well, let me comment first, and then I'll turn it over to Marion, CFO of Ford Credit, if he has anything he wants to add.

好吧，讓我先發表評論，然後我會把它轉交給福特信貸的首席財務官馬里恩，如果他有什麼想補充的話。

But we are growing.

但我們正在成長。

I mean, you saw that in the first quarter.

我的意思是，你在第一季度看到了這一點。

We would expect to see growth for the full year.

我們希望看到全年的增長。

It's not just here, but it's around the world.

它不僅在這裡，而且在世界各地。

And I think you also have to remember what the role of Ford Credit is.

而且我認為您還必須記住福特信貸的作用。

Ford -- the role of Ford Credit and Ford is to be there good times, bad times.

福特——福特信貸和福特的作用是在好時光、壞時光中度過。

And that's why the practices that we follow around origination and servicing, we've been through the good and the bad.

這就是為什麼我們在起源和服務方面遵循的做法，我們經歷了好的和壞的。

And we know how to manage the business appropriately in either condition, which is why we believe that we were ahead of recognizing some of these factors that are now being written about so much across the region.

而且我們知道如何在任何一種情況下適當地管理業務，這就是為什麼我們相信我們領先於認識到這些因素中的一些，這些因素現在在該地區被廣泛報導。

But we think that we will grow over the balance of the year, and we think that we'll grow in a way that's very healthy and supportive of the overall business.

但我們認為我們將在今年餘下的時間裡實現增長，我們認為我們將以一種非常健康和支持整體業務的方式增長。

Marion, you want to add anything?

Marion，你想補充什麼嗎？

Sure, Bob.

當然，鮑勃。

The growth is as much around the world as it is in the U.S. and with plateauing sales in the U.S., our growth in receivables here is really not that large.

全球範圍內的增長與美國一樣多，而且隨著美國銷售趨於平穩，我們這裡的應收賬款增長實際上並沒有那麼大。

And for all that we've seen written about in the press, we have seen a number of banks start to pull away from deep subprime lending or longer-term financing, but it's really at a plateauing kind of level.

對於我們在媒體上看到的所有報導，我們已經看到許多銀行開始退出深度次級抵押貸款或長期融資，但它確實處於一種穩定的水平。

And so we haven't seen a real retrenchment yet.

因此，我們還沒有看到真正的裁員。

And as Bob said, this is the value of the captive to ensure that we're able to support Ford when banks come and go.

正如鮑勃所說，這是俘虜的價值，以確保我們能夠在銀行來來去去時支持福特。

Got it.

知道了。

And just following up on that, is there a specific total asset base or total level that you'd get up to or maybe you'd stop yourself at?

緊接著，是否有一個特定的總資產基礎或總水平，你會達到或者你可能會停止？

We haven't guided on a number, but we would expect to continue to grow.

我們沒有給出具體數字，但我們預計會繼續增長。

But with North American volumes plateauing, we don't expect dramatic growth.

但隨著北美銷量趨於穩定，我們預計不會出現大幅增長。

Okay.

好的。

And then just my second question.

然後是我的第二個問題。

So I look at the European profit segments.

所以我看看歐洲的利潤部分。

It looked like incentives were much more of a headwind this year or this quarter than it was previously, and net pricing was down year-over-year.

看起來今年或本季度的激勵措施比以前更不利，淨定價同比下降。

But on Slide 33, you're effectively looking for the full year to see a positive net pricing.

但在幻燈片 33 上，您實際上是在尋找全年的正淨定價。

So I'm just wondering what you're expecting in the back half of the year or even the second quarter onward from a pricing perspective within the region.

所以我只是想知道從該地區的定價角度來看，您對今年下半年甚至第二季度的期望是什麼。

When you look at our European business, obviously, the pricing that we have was taken away by incentives.

當你看一下我們的歐洲業務時，很明顯，我們的定價被激勵措施所取代。

And that's really where we are in the cycle of some of our products, some of our key products in Europe that are aging.

這確實是我們在某些產品週期中所處的位置，我們在歐洲的一些關鍵產品正在老化。

I mean, the example I'll use is Fiesta.

我的意思是，我將使用的示例是 Fiesta。

We're on run out on that right now, and that represents 20% -- 25% of our volume in Europe.

我們現在已經用完了，這占我們在歐洲銷量的 20% - 25%。

So what we do expect is when we launch the vehicle and what I mentioned earlier around some of the new additions in terms of the high end, that is -- that's the physical, if you will, that will kind of flip the outlook for the remainder of the year once it's launched at the back end of the second quarter.

所以我們期望的是當我們推出車輛時以及我之前提到的關於高端方面的一些新增功能，也就是說 - 如果你願意的話，那將在某種程度上翻轉前景一旦它在第二季度末推出，今年剩下的時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

I had a couple of questions.

我有幾個問題。

First on Europe.

先說歐洲。

How do you -- just given the declines in diesel that we're seeing in the market broadly, I was wondering if you can share some perspective on how you think companies are going to behave.

你好嗎——鑑於我們在整個市場上看到的柴油價格下降，我想知道你是否可以就你認為公司的行為方式分享一些觀點。

Effectively, I think that as a result of this, CO2 emissions are basically moving backwards just given that diesels are more CO2 efficient.

實際上，我認為鑑於柴油機的二氧化碳排放效率更高，二氧化碳排放量基本上正在倒退。

So is that something that is a risk for that region?

那麼這對那個地區來說是一種風險嗎？

Does spending on 48-volt or other technologies need to accelerate versus the prior plan?

與之前的計劃相比，48 伏或其他技術的支出是否需要加速？

Or do you think that the industry starts to incentivize diesel a bit more to support demand?

還是您認為該行業開始更多地激勵柴油以支持需求？

Well, I think a lot of that, Rod, is just also going to be based on what some of the tax regimes are in the various governments.

好吧，我認為其中很多，Rod，也將基於各個政府的一些稅收制度。

But it's very clear, as you know, that both consumer sentiment and regulation are going to -- we believe, are going to continue to reduce diesel.

但很明顯，正如你所知，消費者情緒和監管都將 - 我們相信，將繼續減少柴油。

And that's why I think we're well positioned for a couple of reasons.

這就是為什麼我認為我們處於有利地位的原因有幾個。

First off, what we're not seeing is we're not seeing diesel demand decrease in the commercial vehicle end of the business.

首先，我們沒有看到的是我們沒有看到商用車業務端的柴油需求下降。

And as you know, that is a very important piece of our business in Europe and from a profitability standpoint.

如您所知，從盈利能力的角度來看，這是我們在歐洲業務中非常重要的一部分。

At the same time, even though we're not seeing it, we are making the investments, which are in some of our emerging areas.

與此同時，即使我們沒有看到它，我們也在進行投資，這些投資是在我們的一些新興領域。

As you know, we're going to be introducing a plug-in Transit, hybrid Transit in 2019 into the region.

如您所知，我們將在 2019 年向該地區推出插電式 Transit、混合動力 Transit。

And as you get back to the passenger vehicle side, our belief is we're well positioned from a couple of different aspects: one, manufacturing flexibility.

當你回到乘用車方面時，我們相信我們在幾個不同方面都處於有利地位：第一，製造靈活性。

If people swing more back to obviously petrol engines, we have the capability to have that flexibility.

如果人們更多地轉向明顯的汽油發動機，我們就有能力擁有這種靈活性。

And we also have -- as I mentioned in my comments, we've built a very strong brand around EcoBoost engines.

我們也有——正如我在評論中提到的，我們圍繞 EcoBoost 引擎建立了一個非常強大的品牌。

At the same time, to your question of whether we have to spend more, I mean, we are -- we've laid out our electrification plan, and that includes Europe.

與此同時，對於你是否需要花費更多的問題，我的意思是，我們已經制定了電氣化計劃，其中包括歐洲。

So I think our plans to introduce not only the plug-in hybrid Transit but also some of the other vehicles that we've talked about will serve us well.

因此，我認為我們不僅計劃推出插電式混合動力全順，而且還計劃推出我們討論過的其他一些車輛，這對我們很有幫助。

And we'll have to see how the market behaves in terms of incentive spendings in the interim.

我們必須看看市場在此期間在激勵支出方面的表現。

I mean, you've seen a number of our competitors make a number of announcements of moving towards electrification, et cetera.

我的意思是，您已經看到我們的許多競爭對手發布了一系列關於轉向電氣化等方面的聲明。

But I think either way, we'll be prepared for that.

但我認為無論哪種方式，我們都會為此做好準備。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And switching gears to China, I was hoping you can give us a sense of the full year earnings expectation there.

轉向中國，我希望你能告訴我們那裡全年的盈利預期。

Maybe you can define and quantify some of the key earnings drivers that are within your control and also what some of the factors you considered when -- looks like you're assuming flat demand into 2018.

或許您可以定義和量化一些在您控制範圍內的關鍵盈利驅動因素，以及您在什麼時候考慮的一些因素——看起來您假設 2018 年需求持平。

Well, everything I guided to China, we guided to the region.

好吧，我引導到中國的一切，我們都引導到該地區。

So in terms of the region, as I said, we expect to improve.

因此，就該地區而言，正如我所說，我們希望有所改善。

We think that will be driven by higher volume, and that includes China.

我們認為這將受到銷量增加的推動，其中包括中國。

So that'll be the industry that Mark talked about.

這就是 Mark 談到的行業。

We also believe, and we're already seeing it in the month of April, that we'll -- our own performance will pick up from where it had been in the first quarter, and that's against the backdrop of costs that we expect to be flat.

我們也相信，而且我們已經在 4 月份看到了這一點，我們將 - 我們自己的業績將從第一季度的水平回升，而且這是在我們預期的成本背景下平坦。

They were actually flat, as you saw, in the quarter.

如您所見，他們在本季度實際上是持平的。

We think they'll be flat for the full year.

我們認為他們全年將持平。

So that will be partially offset by the pricing that we talked about and the exchange, but it will basically be around volume.

因此，這將被我們談到的定價和交易所部分抵消，但它基本上將圍繞數量。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And just lastly, really quick.

最後，真的很快。

You mentioned U.S. auction values down about $1,150 year-over-year.

你提到美國拍賣價值同比下降約 1,150 美元。

Pricing in the new car market is not down to the same extent.

新車市場的定價並沒有下降到同樣的程度。

And I was wondering if you could just kind of square that for us.

我想知道你是否可以為我們解決這個問題。

And from a consumer's perspective, obviously, there's an impact on affordability.

從消費者的角度來看，很明顯，這對負擔能力有影響。

But are you seeing any effect on mix?

但是你看到對混音有什麼影響嗎？

Or is it basically volume pressure that's coming in as a result of that?

或者它基本上是體積壓力的結果嗎？

Well, as you saw in the quarter, we had favorable mix.

好吧，正如您在本季度看到的那樣，我們有有利的組合。

I do think in North America, when we look at the balance of the year, that -- while we'll hold on to the mix improvement that we've been getting over the last number of quarters, I don't think that you'll see that for the full year, I think, in terms of an improvement.

我確實認為在北美，當我們審視今年的餘額時，雖然我們將堅持過去幾個季度的組合改進，但我認為你不會我認為，就改進而言，全年都會看到這一點。

I think we'll see probably mix about flat, if not a little bit lower, because the comps obviously get tougher as you get into what we had, Super Duty in the second half of last year and so forth.

我認為我們可能會看到持平，甚至更低一點，因為隨著你進入我們所擁有的，去年下半年的 Super Duty 等等，比賽顯然變得更加艱難。

So I think the mix improvement in North America on a year-over-year basis will probably end in the second half of the year.

因此，我認為北美同比的混合改善可能會在今年下半年結束。

We do expect that we'll still see negative pricing in North America for the full year on a year-over-year basis.

我們確實預計，我們仍會看到北美全年同比出現負定價。

So we actually were a bit positive in the quarter, but we've actually factored in some negative pricing in the second half of the year.

所以我們實際上在本季度有點積極，但我們實際上已經考慮了下半年的一些負面定價。

And again, that's related to some of the timing of launches that we had last year, which helped us actually on that front.

再一次，這與我們去年的一些發佈時間有關，這實際上在這方面幫助了我們。

So I think we've factored in both an end of mix improvement year-over-year.

因此，我認為我們已經考慮了年復一年的混合改進結束。

We have factored in continued negative pricing other than the first quarter, and we've also factored in a lower industry.

除第一季度外，我們還考慮了持續的負定價，而且我們還考慮了較低的行業。

So we think that we've got a pretty good handle in terms of, I'll call it, the cyclical pressures that you're talking about that are affecting the region.

因此，我們認為我們已經很好地處理了你所說的影響該地區的周期性壓力，我稱之為周期性壓力。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

You previously communicated, I think, at your Investor Day that embedded in your 2017 guidance is an expectation for the Super Duty to be a year-on-year headwind to profits on increased cost to manufacture or higher amortization of tooling, et cetera.

我認為，您之前曾在您的投資者日表示，在您 2017 年的指導中，您預計超級關稅將因製造成本增加或工具攤銷增加等因素而對利潤造成同比逆風。

At the same time, looking at your slide deck today, you're ATPs on Slide 16 are extremely strong, and you're driving good mix benefits, as shown on Slide 15.

同時，看看您今天的幻燈片，您在幻燈片 16 上的 ATP 非常強大，並且您正在推動良好的混合收益，如幻燈片 15 所示。

That's not all Super Duty, I'm sure.

我敢肯定，這還不全是 Super Duty。

But I'm curious if and my question is, if maybe the price and the mix benefit of this vehicle might be outperforming your expectations and how that is netting out against the cost of the vehicle relative to your expectation.

但我很好奇，我的問題是，這輛車的價格和混合優勢是否可能超出您的預期，以及相對於您的預期，這是如何抵消車輛成本的。

Yes.

是的。

I would say that's a good observation.

我會說這是一個很好的觀察。

I would say that everything is coming out better than what we'd expected not just on Super Duty but F-150.

我會說一切都比我們預期的要好，不僅是 Super Duty，還有 F-150。

The volumes are stronger.

體積更強。

We've grown share.

我們的份額增加了。

The pricing has been better.

定價已經更好了。

The mix has been stronger.

這種混合更加強烈。

We've actually seen some favorable performance on cost.

我們實際上已經看到了一些有利的成本表現。

So I think everything right across the board on the whole Super Duty lineup has been good.

所以我認為整個 Super Duty 陣容的一切都很好。

Of course, we've got -- diesel is coming in as well.

當然，我們有——柴油也進來了。

So that's going to be another feather in the hat of F-Series in terms of what we can do to attract consumers in this segment.

因此，就我們可以做些什麼來吸引這一細分市場的消費者而言，這將成為 F 系列帽子的另一個亮點。

So I have to agree with you.

所以我必須同意你的看法。

Everything is better than what we had expected when we talked about that by about a year or so ago.

一切都比大約一年前我們談論它時的預期要好。

And I would just reemphasize that this is another example of how we're fortifying the profit pillars because when you look -- Bob mentioned our overall F-Series performance.

我只想再次強調，這是我們如何加強利潤支柱的另一個例子，因為當你看的時候——鮑勃提到了我們整體的 F 系列表現。

And not only were our transaction prices up significantly and much more than the competition, but our share of the segment, our share of the full-size segment is over 38% now.

不僅我們的交易價格大幅上漲，遠遠超過競爭對手，而且我們在該細分市場的份額，我們在全尺寸細分市場中的份額現在超過 38%。

It's up over 1.5 points in the first quarter.

第一季度上漲超過1.5個百分點。

So customers are really seeing the value and the capability that we've made and the investments in the aluminum body and the high-strength steel frame.

因此，客戶真正看到了我們所創造的價值和能力，以及對鋁製車身和高強度鋼架的投資。

And we're not resting on our laurels.

我們並沒有固步自封。

We have the updated, the freshened F-150 coming in the fall of this year.

我們將在今年秋季推出更新、煥然一新的 F-150。

Then we have the Ranger coming, et cetera.

然後我們有遊俠來了，等等。

We're going to continue to reinforce this profit pillar and, as I've talked about in the past, kind of build out our moats around this because it's such an important part of our business.

我們將繼續加強這一利潤支柱，並且正如我過去所說的那樣，圍繞這一點建立我們的護城河，因為它是我們業務的重要組成部分。

That's great to hear.

聽到這個消息我很高興。

And then just lastly for me, probing the implications of GM's exit from Europe.

最後對我來說，探討通用汽車退出歐洲的影響。

Firstly, is the sale of Opel/Vauxhall to PSA a threat because it makes a stronger competitor with more scale?

首先，將 Opel/Vauxhall 出售給 PSA 是否構成威脅，因為它會形成一個規模更大的更強大的競爭對手？

Or is it instead maybe an opportunity because it removes a weaker competitor that was maybe competing on price?

或者這可能是一個機會，因為它消除了一個可能在價格上競爭的較弱的競爭對手？

And then secondly, I know you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're committed to your operations in Europe, and of course, you had a really great 2016 there.

其次，我知道你在準備好的發言中提到你致力於在歐洲的業務，當然，你在那裡度過了非常美好的 2016 年。

But can you just sort of summarize for the investors what you think are maybe the biggest differences between your European operations and GM's such that staying in Europe is the right thing for you to do for your shareholders even if leaving was the right thing for theirs?

但是，您能否為投資者總結一下您認為您的歐洲業務與通用汽車業務之間最大的不同之處，即留在歐洲對您的股東來說是正確的，即使離開對他們的股東來說是正確的？

Well, again, I'll just talk to Ford.

好吧，再一次，我會和福特談談。

And in the case of the PSA purchase of Opel, I think the answer to your -- first part of your question is yes in that I think there's some opportunities, particularly near-term opportunities.

在 PSA 收購歐寶的情況下，我認為你問題的第一部分的答案是肯定的，因為我認為有一些機會，特別是近期機會。

And we're actually seeing that in the marketplace right now in terms of share and things of that nature.

我們實際上在市場上看到了份額和那種性質的東西。

But I also think longer term, it does take out one more competitor.

但我也認為從長遠來看，它確實會多出一個競爭對手。

At the same time, it -- we have a bigger competitor.

與此同時，它 - 我們有一個更大的競爭對手。

And I think we're factoring that into our plans.

我認為我們正在將其納入我們的計劃。

In terms of Europe as we go forward, I won't kind of do a comparison.

就我們前進的歐洲而言，我不會做比較。

But I think from our standpoint, our business we have -- we're going to stay focused, as I mentioned, on that strategy of product, brand and cost.

但我認為，從我們的角度來看，我們擁有的業務——正如我提到的，我們將繼續專注於產品、品牌和成本戰略。

And importantly, our strategy in Europe is really to play to our strengths, commercial vehicles, utilities, which we've grown a lot, and where the market is moving.

重要的是，我們在歐洲的戰略確實是發揮我們的優勢，商用車，公用事業，我們已經發展了很多，以及市場正在移動的地方。

One out of every 4 vehicles on the passenger side part of the market in Europe last quarter was SUVs and performance vehicles.

上個季度，歐洲市場上每 4 輛汽車中就有 1 輛是 SUV 和高性能汽車。

And as we do that, we can leverage kind of our global scale and technology, at the same time, as we go into not only improving our petrol engines but electrification and diesel.

當我們這樣做的時候，我們可以利用我們的全球規模和技術，同時，我們不僅要改進我們的汽油發動機，還要改進電氣化和柴油。

And the other element that's different is, remember, we decided to stay in Russia.

另一個不同的因素是，請記住，我們決定留在俄羅斯。

And you heard from Bob, we're seeing improvement in that Russia business.

你從鮑勃那裡聽說，我們看到俄羅斯業務有所改善。

So this is where we take a point of view on the future.

所以這就是我們對未來的看法。

We put a plan together.

我們制定了一個計劃。

It's starting to bear fruit, and it's helping our European business.

它開始取得成果，並且正在幫助我們的歐洲業務。

Our next question comes from the line of George Galliers of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 George Galliers。

Just following on from Rod's questions around diesel, I was wondering if you could give any indication of your exposure to diesel residual values in Europe.

繼羅德關於柴油的問題之後，我想知道你是否可以提供任何跡象表明你在歐洲對柴油殘值的敞口。

And have you made any adjustments to those given declining share, changes in consumer sentiment and clearly political risk?

考慮到份額下降、消費者情緒變化和明顯的政治風險，你是否對那些進行了任何調整？

Well, in terms of lease, I think we actually provided some data on that at the Let?s Chat event back in March.

好吧，就租賃而言，我認為我們實際上在 3 月份的 Let's Chat 活動中提供了一些相關數據。

We actually do almost no leasing in Europe.

實際上，我們在歐洲幾乎不做租賃。

And so from that regard -- which is different than some of the competitors that we're up against in Europe.

因此，從這方面來看——這與我們在歐洲面臨的一些競爭對手不同。

So from that regard, there's no lease exposure relative to residuals.

因此，從這方面來看，沒有與殘差相關的租賃風險。

If you think about just the overall market in terms of residual values, I mean, that would -- depending upon how that plays out, as Mark was talking about, I think that would be impacted -- it would be an industry effect that we would have to deal with as it happens.

如果你只考慮剩餘價值方面的整個市場，我的意思是，這將 - 取決於它如何發揮作用，正如馬克所說，我認為這會受到影響 - 這將是我們的行業效應將不得不處理它發生。

But it wouldn't be an impact that would affect leasing because we don't do that to any significant degree in Europe.

但這不會影響租賃，因為我們在歐洲沒有在任何顯著程度上這樣做。

The only other thing I'd add, George, is when you look at -- and I mentioned, our mix in Europe is about 45% diesels, which is about a point or 2 below the industry.

喬治，我唯一要補充的是，當你看到——我提到過，我們在歐洲的混合動力大約是 45% 的柴油機，比行業低一兩點。

And if you look at the U.K., which is our largest market, represents 30% of our sales, our diesel mix is somewhere in the neighborhood of around 35%.

如果你看看英國，這是我們最大的市場，占我們銷售額的 30%，而我們的柴油組合大約在 35% 左右。

And that's just due to the mix of our products, right?

這只是由於我們產品的組合，對吧？

We're selling more SUVs, more larger vehicles.

我們正在銷售更多 SUV，更多大型車輛。

And so we're -- I think we're -- it's an important market for us, and we're below the rest of the industry.

所以我們 - 我認為我們 - 這對我們來說是一個重要的市場，我們低於行業的其他部分。

Yes.

是的。

And the other thing, too, is it will be an interesting shift as it plays out.

另一件事是，隨著它的發展，這將是一個有趣的轉變。

But if there is that kind of shift, you would think it would also start to give you a balance on -- in terms of the residual values of your petrol vehicles because of the consumer movement into that and the demand for the petrols relative to the diesels.

但如果有這種轉變，你會認為它也會開始給你一個平衡——就你的汽油車的剩餘價值而言，因為消費者轉向汽油和相對於汽油的需求柴油機。

So it's not just one way.

所以這不僅僅是一種方式。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And just to be clear, and I probably shouldn't maybe ask this, you're not on the line on your retail products, on the sort of trade cycle management products with respect to the minimum future guaranteed values of the Ford Credit on the diesel?

明確一點，我可能不應該問這個問題，你不會對你的零售產品，對那種與福特信貸的最低未來保證價值有關的貿易週期管理產品上線柴油機？

We are, George, but it's at a significantly lower level than what projected residual would be.

我們是，喬治，但它的水平明顯低於預計的殘差水平。

It's a trade cycle management product in Europe, and it's more like a balloon where a customer does have the ability to turn back in a vehicle, but the product is structured with a deep equity position.

它在歐洲是一種貿易週期管理產品，它更像是一個氣球，客戶確實有能力乘車返回，但該產品的結構具有深厚的股權頭寸。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then the second question I just had was sort of a bit of housekeeping.

然後我剛剛提出的第二個問題有點像家務管理。

In the deck, you gave distributions for this year was $2.7 billion.

在甲板上，你今年的分配是 27 億美元。

I think on the Detroit deck, it was $2.8 billion.

我認為在底特律甲板上，它是 28 億美元。

Is the difference related to some of the anti-dilutive buybacks?

差異是否與某些反稀釋回購有關？

Yes.

是的。

I finally found something good about lower share price, and that's the fact that the cost of the anti-dilutive share repurchase program isn't as great as what we had thought.

我終於發現了較低股價的一些好處，那就是反稀釋股票回購計劃的成本並不像我們想像的那麼大。

It?s the only thing good.

這是唯一的好處。

Yes, let's be clear on that.

是的，讓我們明確這一點。

That's how we think of it.

這就是我們的想法。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 John Murphy。

Just 3 quick ones here.

這裡只有 3 個快速的。

First, as raw material costs go up, is there an opportunity to potentially share that with some of your partners, namely your suppliers, if that becomes a real headwind?

首先，隨著原材料成本的上升，如果這成為真正的不利因素，是否有機會與您的一些合作夥伴（即您的供應商）分享？

Well, the way that we structure our interactions with the supply base on commodities, it's a number of things.

好吧，我們以商品為基礎構建與供應商互動的方式，這是很多事情。

Steel has a contract, right?

鋼鐵有合同，對吧？

So I'm sure that our purchasing organization is negotiating as hard as they possibly can in terms of those contracts to make sure that we get the best price that we possibly can.

因此，我確信我們的採購組織正在就這些合同進行盡可能多的談判，以確保我們獲得盡可能最好的價格。

If you look at many of the other commodities, though, we actually index.

但是，如果您查看許多其他商品，我們實際上會編制索引。

And so as a result of that, I think that's probably one of the reasons why when commodities are falling, we tend to get a much faster and quicker improvement because it will flow through to us relatively quickly from the indexing.

因此，我認為這可能是為什麼當大宗商品下跌時，我們往往會越來越快地改善的原因之一，因為它會相對較快地從指數化中流向我們。

I think the converse is true when prices start to go up.

我認為當價格開始上漲時情況正好相反。

So I think the team actually is working, though, with the supply (inaudible) the amount of various commodities that we have in our components and then the suppliers' components, but they're working on that.

因此，我認為該團隊實際上正在努力供應（聽不清）我們組件中的各種商品的數量，然後是供應商的組件，但他們正在努力解決這個問題。

The other thing that I would mention is that we do some hedging.

我要提到的另一件事是我們做了一些對沖。

And so there's some protection for hedging.

因此，對沖有一定的保護作用。

So in fact, at this point in time, about half of our full year exposure is already locked in through the combination of contracts as well as hedges.

所以事實上，在這個時間點，我們全年敞口的一半左右已經通過合約和對沖組合鎖定。

The other thing that's interesting about the commodities is there's actually a correlation of some commodities with some of our currencies.

關於大宗商品的另一件有趣的事情是，某些大宗商品實際上與我們的某些貨幣存在相關性。

And so what we'll see as well, there might be bad news on a particular commodity, oftentimes it's going to be offset by good news on appreciation of a currency.

因此，我們也會看到，特定商品可能有壞消息，通常會被貨幣升值的好消息所抵消。

Australia dollars are a really good example of that.

澳元就是一個很好的例子。

So you can't just look at the one factor.

所以不能只看一個因素。

It's actually something that we look at across both exchange exposures as well as commodity exposures.

這實際上是我們在交易所敞口和商品敞口中看到的東西。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And just the second question, on cash conservation or really, I mean, really your cash balance is a little bit higher than, I think, that you've talked about in the past.

關於第二個問題，關於現金保護，或者說真的，我的意思是，你的現金餘額實際上比你過去談到的要高一點。

I mean, at this point in the cycle, are you just going to let the cash build up on the balance sheet and really just be set to take advantage of opportunities and to be incredibly cushioned in case we do go into a downturn sooner rather than later?

我的意思是，在周期的這一點上，你是否只是讓現金在資產負債表上積累，並且真的只是準備好利用機會並提供令人難以置信的緩衝，以防我們早日陷入低迷而不是之後？

Yes.

是的。

So let me make a number of comments.

所以讓我發表一些意見。

So as Mark mentioned, we're not uncomfortable at all with the fact that we have a lot of liquidity at this point in the cycle.

因此，正如馬克所提到的，我們對在周期的這一點上擁有大量流動性這一事實一點也不感到不安。

But I want to remind you, John, that about $3 billion of that is related to the debt issuance that we had back in December, which was very specifically for -- it should give us the capital that we could use at some point in the future to support both the core business and the emerging opportunities around strategic opportunities, whether it's equity into something -- purchase of something.

但我想提醒你，約翰，其中大約 30 億美元與我們在 12 月份發行的債券有關，這是非常具體的——它應該給我們提供我們在未來某個時候可以使用的資本。未來支持核心業務和圍繞戰略機會的新興機會，無論是對某物的股權——購買某物。

As Mark said, we're going to look at that very prudently, and it has to be completely consistent with our strategic framework and our objectives.

正如馬克所說，我們將非常謹慎地看待這一點，它必須與我們的戰略框架和目標完全一致。

But that -- $3 billion of that is for that.

但那 - 其中 30 億美元用於此。

So think about the rest of it is around $25 billion, which is still above our minimum cash of $20 billion.

所以想想剩下的大約是 250 億美元，這仍然高於我們 200 億美元的最低現金。

So we think that that's not a bad place to be at this point in the cycle.

因此，我們認為在周期的這一點上，這不是一個糟糕的地方。

But also depending upon our results, it gives us the ability to provide a very nice supplemental dividend, which is the other means that we'll use to provide distributions to shareholders above and beyond the regular dividends.

但也取決於我們的結果，它使我們能夠提供非常好的補充股息，這是我們將用來向股東提供超出常規股息的分配的另一種方式。

So we'll have to see how the performance comes out in terms of the year relative to net income, but that's the other way that we would utilize.

因此，我們必須看看相對於淨收入的年度表現如何，但這是我們將利用的另一種方式。

That's consistent with our strategy of the supplemental dividend.

這與我們的補充股息戰略一致。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just lastly, and I hate to ask a question like this in this forum.

最後，我討厭在這個論壇上問這樣的問題。

But I mean, on cadence of earnings, traditionally, you guys have been around 60-40 first half, second half.

但我的意思是，按照傳統，你們上半場和下半場的盈利節奏都在 60-40 左右。

This -- the way you're talking about the guidance per region as you went through your comments kind of like indicates that the second half might be equal to or maybe even a little bit stronger than in the first half.

這 - 你在評論時談論每個地區的指導的方式有點像表明下半場可能等於甚至比上半年強一點。

I just wondered if you could give us some color there because it looks like estimates are still looking for the first half to be a bit stronger than the second half, and it sounds like your commentary is more equal weighted to maybe even a little back-end loaded.

我只是想知道你是否可以在那裡給我們一些顏色，因為看起來估計仍在尋找上半場比下半場強一點，而且聽起來你的評論更平等，甚至可能有點落後 -結束加載。

My least favorite subject is calendarization.

我最不喜歡的科目是日曆化。

It's like trying to grab Jell-O.

這就像試圖抓住 Jell-O。

So the third quarter will be the weakest absolute of the year, so I can say that with some confidence.

所以第三季度將是今年最疲軟的絕對季度，所以我可以自信地說。

I think in terms of first half, second half, probably the historical experience is more or less right, probably 55%, 60%.

我覺得從上半年、下半年來看，歷史經驗大概是對的，大概是55%、60%。

Somewhere in that range would be about right.

在那個範圍內的某個地方是正確的。

But I have a big asterisk beside anything I say with calendarization.

但是我在日曆化方面所說的任何內容旁邊都有一個大星號。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Grabbing Jell-O, I like that one, Bob.

抓住果凍，我喜歡那個，鮑勃。

Mark, Continental in their Powertrain Capital Markets Day a couple of days ago said that they are engineering what they see as their last generation of internal combustion powertrain to be launched in 2023.

Mark, Continental 在幾天前的動力總成資本市場日上表示，他們正在設計他們認為將於 2023 年推出的最後一代內燃動力總成。

Do you agree with that kind of spirit, that this is the last generation of ICE?

你同意那種精神，這是最後一代的ICE嗎？

Well, I can't speak to Continental.

好吧，我不能和大陸航空公司通話。

I did see Elmar and what they laid out in their plans, how they were going to spend their capital.

我確實看到了 Elmar 以及他們在計劃中的佈局，他們將如何使用他們的資金。

Listen, our view, very simply and you've heard us, that in the next 15 years, we expect, in the industry, there to be more electrified options in the marketplace than ICE ones, and electrified being hybrid, plug-in hybrid and full BEV.

聽著，我們的觀點非常簡單，您已經聽到我們的聲音，在接下來的 15 年裡，我們預計，在這個行業中，市場上的電氣化選擇比 ICE 的更多，電氣化是混合動力、插電式混合動力和完整的 BEV。

At the same time, there will still be a market for ICE engines.

與此同時，內燃機發動機仍然會有市場。

Part of that is due to the job to be done in the duty cycles for things like truck applications or heavyweight applications or climatic applications.

部分原因是在卡車應用、重型應用或氣候應用等工作循環中要完成的工作。

And our view is that over time, the cost of ownership of a internal -- internal combustion is going to cross with an electrified.

我們的觀點是，隨著時間的推移，內燃機的擁有成本將與電氣化相交。

They'll probably do it first for hybrids, then for plug-ins, and then after that, somewhere down the road, in BEVs.

他們可能會首先為混合動力汽車做這件事，然後是插電式汽車，然後是 BEV。

And that's going to be a combination of improvements that we see in the technology, in the scale and also the infrastructure for electrification.

這將是我們在技術、規模和電氣化基礎設施方面看到的改進的結合。

And on the other hand, you're going to see costs go up on the ICE side of the house because of regulations.

另一方面，由於法規的原因，您會看到房屋的 ICE 方面的成本上升。

So that's why we're making the investments.

這就是我們進行投資的原因。

But I can't speak to individual suppliers, but I do believe that there will be some portion of this industry where ICE applications will be very appropriate.

但我不能與個別供應商交談，但我確實相信在這個行業的某些部分，ICE 應用程序將非常合適。

Plus, at the same time, the world's not sitting still in terms of the technological advances in ICE engines.

此外，與此同時，在 ICE 發動機的技術進步方面，世界並沒有停滯不前。

Plus, their hybrid and the plug-in hybrid includes an ICE.

另外，他們的混合動力車和插電式混合動力車包括一個 ICE。

Right.

正確的。

Got it, got it.

明白了，明白了。

And Mark, you actually kind of brought up my second question, which is, when do you see that crossover occurring?

馬克，你實際上提出了我的第二個問題，那就是，你什麼時候看到這種交叉發生？

I mean, you guys are obviously doing a ton of work on this space, and you have your own assessments and experiences of the sell costs at the pack level, et cetera.

我的意思是，你們顯然在這個領域做了大量工作，並且你們對包裝級別的銷售成本有自己的評估和經驗，等等。

When do you see that for, let's say, the average application of a pure EV?

你什麼時候看到純電動汽車的平均應用？

Forget hybrid for a second, but pure EV being the lower cost to ownership than an ICE, whether it has a -- whether it's a hybrid or not.

暫時忘記混合動力車，但純電動汽車的擁有成本低於內燃機，無論它是否有——無論是否是混合動力車。

Well, we haven't really talked about that because there's lots of moving parts on that.

好吧，我們還沒有真正討論過這個，因為上面有很多活動部件。

But I still think that's a ways away.

但我仍然認為這還有很長的路要走。

I still think that, that is a ways away.

我仍然認為，那是一段距離。

And I said, I think it will happen first for hybrids and then plug-ins.

我說，我認為這將首先發生在混合動力車上，然後是插電式汽車。

BEVs, there's still -- when you look at the cost per kilowatt hour and some of the advances that have to be made, I still think that's -- that we're a ways away on that.

BEVs，仍然——當你看每千瓦時的成本和一些必須取得的進步時，我仍然認為——我們在這方面還有很長的路要走。

Okay.

好的。

And my last question on cars.

我最後一個關於汽車的問題。

There's this old adage out there that it doesn't matter what happens to car sales because car companies make all their money in trucks and SUVs.

有一句古老的格言說，汽車銷售情況如何並不重要，因為汽車公司的所有收入都來自卡車和 SUV。

But my understanding was that you, Ford in particular, relative to your U.S. domestic peers, used to make some really good money in passenger cars through your global platform architecture and the right product, the right place and EcoBoost.

但我的理解是，你，尤其是福特，相對於你的美國國內同行，過去常常通過你的全球平台架構和合適的產品、合適的地點和 EcoBoost 在乘用車領域賺到很多錢。

And that was a different environment perhaps and hindsight is 20-20, but I just want to understand, is that true that you used to make good money in cars?

那可能是一個不同的環境，事後看來是 20-20，但我只想了解，你以前在汽車上賺大錢是真的嗎？

And does this mean that the segment shift that the industry is going through of -- we kind of have a shunning of cars, if you will, whether it's cyclical or secular, that you have to kind of overcome those decrementals with something else on that?

這是否意味著該行業正在經歷的細分市場轉變——我們有點迴避汽車，如果你願意的話，無論是周期性的還是長期的，你必須用其他東西來克服這些遞減？

Yes.

是的。

Well, I'd actually turn that around and say the industry shift that we're seeing around the world from cars to SUVs plays to our strengths.

好吧，我實際上會反過來說我們在世界各地看到的從汽車到 SUV 的行業轉變發揮了我們的優勢。

Okay.

好的。

But that's not to say -- I mean, again, I know you don't disclose profitability on a model line basis.

但這並不是說——我的意思是，我知道你不會在模型線的基礎上披露盈利能力。

But you -- are you able to say -- are you able to comment on directionally whether that is accurate that you had been making positive -- yes, you had been making positive profit on the cars throughout much of the cycle?

但是你——你能說——你能從方向上評論你一直在做的事情是否準確——是的，你在整個週期的大部分時間裡都在汽車上賺取了正利潤？

Well, I'm not going to comment on our past profitability around cars or any of our vehicle lines.

好吧，我不會評論我們過去圍繞汽車或任何車輛系列的盈利能力。

But we are obviously want to make sure that as we go forward, we're allocating our capital to those areas that are going to drive value in the company.

但我們顯然希望確保在我們前進的過程中，我們將資本分配到那些將推動公司價值的領域。

And that's why I think when you look at how we're doing that and some of the examples we talked about earlier, plus the segmentation around the world, it's going to play to our strengths, Adam.

這就是為什麼我認為，當你看看我們是如何做到這一點的，以及我們之前談到的一些例子，加上世界各地的細分，它會發揮我們的優勢，亞當。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布賴恩約翰遜。

Two questions, one about Ford Credit and then just a kind of broad strategic question.

兩個問題，一個關於福特信貸，然後是一個廣泛的戰略問題。

The first question on Ford Credit.

關於福特信貸的第一個問題。

Okay, 7% auction declines year-over-year, a couple kind of subquestions around that.

好吧，7% 的拍賣同比下降，圍繞它有幾個子問題。

As you look -- first, as you look forward to the remainder of '17 and since 2/3 of your lease book almost by definition is in the out years, what sort of auction declines are you keeping?

正如你所看到的——首先，當你期待 17 年的剩餘時間時，並且由於幾乎定義為 2/3 的租賃書在過去的幾年裡，你保持什麼樣的拍賣下降？

And has it already been factored into the supplemental depreciation or if we see further weakening on a -- on further weakening will there be more sequential depreciation that's going to be needed?

它是否已經被計入補充貶值，或者如果我們看到進一步走弱 - 進一步走弱是否會需要更多的連續貶值？

So Brian, what I would say is that, as we've mentioned already, we're expecting an average decline of 6% this year.

所以布賴恩，我要說的是，正如我們已經提到的，我們預計今年平均下降 6%。

We also have assumed and we haven't provided nor will we today further declines in the forward years.

我們還假設並且我們沒有提供，我們今天也不會在未來幾年進一步下降。

So we are writing new contracts, if you will, on the assumption of those lower declines.

因此，如果您願意，我們正在根據這些較低的跌幅假設編寫新合同。

So we believe that we've called that right, that we have factored in what is going to happen over the next several years and have that reflected appropriately in the books that -- what's going on the book today.

所以我們相信我們說得對，我們已經考慮了未來幾年將要發生的事情，並在書中適當地反映了——今天這本書上發生了什麼。

But that would not be supplemental depreciation.

但這不是補充折舊。

I mean, that's us just writing the contracts at the right level, look at the right return.

我的意思是，那是我們只是在正確的水平上寫合同，看看正確的回報。

It would mean, for example, if those released vehicles that -- the leasing expense will be more expensive for Ford Credit, they can either pass it along, absorb it and variable marketing.

這意味著，例如，如果那些發布的車輛 - 租賃費用對於福特信貸來說會更昂貴，他們可以將其傳遞，吸收它並進行可變營銷。

But we think that we've called that right, and that's how we've set up the business.

但我們認為我們說得對，這就是我們建立業務的方式。

I guess my question just in the weeds was, if you had a 1Q '16 origination, and that car is not going to come back until 1Q '19, what have you assumed?

我想我的問題只是在雜草中，如果你有 16 年第一季度的起源，而那輛車要到 19 年第一季度才會回來，你有什麼假設？

Have you taken the hit that you think you're going to get in '19 now?

你認為你現在會在 19 年受到打擊嗎？

Or do you have to wait until ALG walks those guidelines down?

還是您必須等到 ALG 遵循這些指導方針？

So you don't take any hit because you basically have written the contract with the assumption that, that is the lower -- that have a lower value.

所以你不會受到任何打擊，因為你基本上是在假設合同是較低的——具有較低價值的情況下編寫合同的。

Obviously, that means that for Ford Motor Company, in terms of what it may have to do in terms of subvention and so forth could be more expensive than in the past.

顯然，這意味著對於福特汽車公司而言，就其在補貼等方面可能需要做的事情而言，可能比過去更加昂貴。

But let me have Marion just add a supplement if you want to.

但是，如果您願意，讓我讓 Marion 添加補充劑。

Yes.

是的。

So you have to -- it's complicated.

所以你必須——這很複雜。

You have to understand the accounting around this.

你必須了解這方面的會計。

But in your example, if a contract had been written in the first quarter of '16, and ALG.

但在你的例子中，如果合同是在 16 年第一季度和 ALG 簽訂的。

So if the contract had been written in the first quarter of '16, and ALG subsequently lowered their outlook on that, we immediately start to take supplemental depreciation for that.

因此，如果合同是在 16 年第一季度簽訂的，而 ALG 隨後降低了他們對此的展望，我們會立即開始對其進行補充折舊。

So we're taking a substantial amount in supplemental depreciation.

因此，我們正在採取大量的補充折舊。

This year, as we talked about at the Let?s Chat event, we took a lot in 2016, and we took our first cut of the -- bite of the apple the beginning of '16 and then second cut of the apple the end of '16.

今年，正如我們在 Let's Chat 活動中談到的那樣，我們在 2016 年收穫了很多，我們在 16 年初切下了第一口蘋果，然後在年底切下了第二口蘋果16 年的。

So we're taking more supplemental depreciation in '17 than we did in '16.

所以我們在 17 年比 16 年採取了更多的補充折舊。

And that is for the entire portfolio all the way out through '18, '19 into '20.

這是整個投資組合，一直到 18 年、19 年到 20 年。

And it's completely contained within our outlook.

它完全包含在我們的視野中。

And that's why we've guided that we expect our '18 results to improve from '17 as we would expect to have lower supplemental depreciation.

這就是為什麼我們指導我們預計我們的 18 年業績會比 17 年有所改善，因為我們預計會有較低的補充折舊。

We've factored those sequential declines into our outlook, and it's rolling through our accounting today.

我們已將這些連續下降納入我們的前景，並且它正在通過我們今天的會計工作。

And Brian, I just wanted to just reconfirm, though, that for new contracts, not only have we obviously assumed what we expect to happen this year, but we have further assumed declines post-2017 and factored that into the new business that we're writing.

布賴恩，我只是想再次確認，對於新合同，我們不僅顯然假設了我們預計今年會發生什麼，而且我們還進一步假設了 2017 年後的下降，並將其納入我們的新業務中重新寫作。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Second question for Mark.

馬克的第二個問題。

There is an automaker who makes about 100,000 run-rate cars a year who's valued higher than Ford, roughly the same.

有一家汽車製造商每年生產約 100,000 輛運行率汽車，其價值高於福特，大致相同。

We could debate the valuation of that company, but in terms of your investments, whether it's big data, autonomy, mobility, electrification, what do you think the market is missing in that comparison?

我們可以討論那家公司的估值，但就你的投資而言，無論是大數據、自主、移動、電氣化，你認為市場在比較中缺少什麼？

Well, again, I can't speak to Tesla.

嗯，再一次，我不能和特斯拉說話。

I know you didn't mention the name, but I know that's who you're referring to.

我知道你沒有提到這個名字，但我知道你指的是那個人。

And we're just going to stay focused on our strategy.

我們將繼續專注於我們的戰略。

First off, I just want to say, on the valuation, we are absolutely committed to making sure that we create value for our shareholders.

首先，我只想說，在估值方面，我們絕對致力於確保為股東創造價值。

And as we execute this strategy of fortifying our profit pillars and transforming the underperforming parts of our business and growing in the emerging opportunities, that I'm confident that we're going to create value, and we'll continue to return value to our shareholders.

當我們執行這一戰略來鞏固我們的利潤支柱並轉變我們業務中表現不佳的部分並在新興機會中增長時，我相信我們將創造價值，並且我們將繼續為我們的價值回報股東。

In terms of maybe what the market is missing in terms of if you look at the valuation of our business, and I'll -- first off, I think we have a strong -- a robust and defensible core.

如果你看一下我們業務的估值，就市場可能缺少的東西而言，我會 - 首先，我認為我們有一個強大的 - 一個強大且可防禦的核心。

And you've heard this morning how we're fortifying the efforts around that.

你今天早上已經聽說我們是如何加強這方面的努力的。

The cost structure that we've put into the business and also the strong balance sheet allows us to pay a nice sustainable dividend, which by the way has a nice yield, and I think the upside around as we transform the underperforming parts of our business and grow in the emerging areas.

我們投入業務的成本結構以及強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠支付可觀的可持續股息，順便說一下，它的收益率很高，而且我認為隨著我們轉變業務表現不佳的部分而帶來的好處並在新興領域成長。

And I think on the growing in the emerging areas, and you mentioned them, mobility and data and autonomous vehicles and connectivity, I think we need to do a better job as a company in dimensioning what that means for us in the future in terms of revenue and profit growth.

我認為關於新興領域的增長，你提到了它們，移動性和數據以及自動駕駛汽車和連接性，我認為我們需要作為一家公司做得更好，以衡量這對我們未來意味著什麼收入和利潤增長。

We've talked about the investments, and we'll do that going forward.

我們已經討論了投資，我們將繼續這樣做。

Our next question comes from the line of David Whiston of Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 David Whiston。

ALG had said yesterday they were looking for industry incentive spending to peak in July.

ALG 昨天曾表示，他們希望行業激勵支出在 7 月達到頂峰。

And I was just curious if you're that optimistic or you think the industry might continue to remain somewhat irrational to keep the SAAR above 17.

我只是好奇你是否那麼樂觀，或者你認為該行業可能會繼續保持某種非理性，以將 SAAR 保持在 17 以上。

Well, I don't think the industry has been irrational, let me just say that first.

好吧，我不認為這個行業是非理性的，讓我先說一下。

If you see what's happening, there's been a very, very slow, long, progressive increase in incentives going all the way back from when the downturn ended.

如果你看到正在發生的事情，就會發現從經濟衰退結束時一直以來，激勵措施一直非常、非常緩慢、長期、漸進地增加。

So we're just on that track.

所以我們就在那個軌道上。

We have so far seen the ATPs continue to stay ahead of that.

到目前為止，我們已經看到 ATP 繼續保持領先地位。

So it's inclusive of that.

所以它包括在內。

So I don't -- and I don't see any particular manufacturer on a consistent basis doing something that I would think is unhealthy for the business.

所以我沒有——而且我沒有看到任何特定的製造商在一致的基礎上做一些我認為對企業不健康的事情。

I think everyone's very much focused on margins, profitability.

我認為每個人都非常關注利潤率和盈利能力。

If there's anybody in any particular month or quarter maybe trying to address an inventory situation or gain a tactical advantage, yes, sure that happens.

如果在任何特定月份或季度有人可能試圖解決庫存情況或獲得戰術優勢，是的，肯定會發生。

But I have not seen that in terms of a consistent approach to this business.

但我還沒有看到對這項業務採取一致的方法。

So I think, overall, the industry is relatively disciplined.

所以我覺得，總體來說，這個行業還是比較有紀律的。

And Mark talked about what we're doing, and we're going to continue to do what we're doing.

馬克談到了我們正在做的事情，我們將繼續做我們正在做的事情。

I am not aware of anything that would suggest that, that trend of small increases -- progressive increases is going to end.

我不知道有什麼跡象表明小幅增長的趨勢——漸進式增長即將結束。

Our next question comes from line of Justine Fisher of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Justine Fisher。

The first question that I have is just following up on 2 questions ago in terms of the outlook for used values in '18 and '19.

我的第一個問題是就 18 年和 19 年使用價值的前景跟進 2 個問題。

I know, Bob, you said that you guys weren't going to put specific numbers around your expectations in '18 and '19.

我知道，鮑勃，你說過你們不會在 18 年和 19 年的預期中給出具體數字。

But we do know that the off-lease vehicle supply increases significantly in '18 and '19.

但我們確實知道，18 年和 19 年的非租賃車輛供應量顯著增加。

So could you give us color as to whether you expect the declines to accelerate or decelerate year-over-year in '18 versus '17?

那麼，您能否告訴我們您是否預計 18 年與 17 年的跌幅會同比加速或減速？

Well, we expect the declines to continue.

好吧，我們預計下降將繼續。

And in fact, we have factored in exactly what you referenced, which is the fact that we know how much is going to be coming back because we know what's been leased.

事實上，我們已經準確地考慮了您所引用的內容，即我們知道有多少會回來，因為我們知道租用了什麼。

And so we've factored that into our thinking.

因此，我們已將其納入我們的想法。

So we do see a continued decline, but I don't want to get into any characterization of the slope of that decline.

所以我們確實看到了持續下降，但我不想對這種下降的斜率進行任何描述。

Okay.

好的。

And then the second question is following up on something that we talked about at the Let?s Chat.

然後第二個問題是跟進我們在 Let's Chat 中討論的內容。

You mentioned that you expected used -- lower used vehicle prices to manifest themselves more in new vehicle volume than in new vehicle price, i.e., that the OEMs would cut production instead of just lower their prices on new cars.

你提到你預計二手車價格會比新車價格更能體現在新車銷量上，也就是說，原始設備製造商將削減產量，而不是僅僅降低新車價格。

So can you give us color on what the size of that price-insensitive market is?

那麼你能告訴我們這個對價格不敏感的市場有多大嗎？

I.e., how much would vehicle production have to go down in order to shrink the consumer base to that population that will still buy a new car with trim and features even if used car prices have -- are down?

也就是說，為了將消費者群體縮小到即使二手車價格下跌，仍會購買具有裝飾和功能的新車的人口，汽車產量必須下降多少？

Have you guys done work on that?

你們做過這方面的工作嗎？

My head just exploded from that question, but -- [straight to] the answers.

我的腦袋剛從那個問題中解脫出來，但是 - [直接] 答案。

So let me just explain how we think about it in my very simple way of thinking.

因此，讓我以非常簡單的思維方式解釋一下我們是如何看待它的。

So the reality is that, first of all, people that buy used vehicles tend to be people that buy used vehicles.

所以現實是，首先，買二手車的人往往是買二手車的人。

People that tend to buy new tend to buy new.

傾向於買新的人傾向於買新的。

So there is some sort of area where maybe people will flip back and forth between the 2, but they actually tend to be quite separate consumer sets.

因此，在某些領域，人們可能會在兩者之間來回切換，但實際上他們往往是完全不同的消費者群體。

Second thing I would say is that clearly, with lower used vehicle values, it's going to have an effect on the ability to price for new.

我要說的第二件事是，很明顯，二手車價值較低，這將對新車的定價能力產生影響。

It'll put tension on that because of residual values and so forth.

由於剩餘價值等原因，它會對此施加壓力。

So it would mean an effect to mix.

所以這意味著混合的效果。

You may find people that start to move down series or even down from segments potentially while staying in new, so there could be an effect there.

您可能會發現人們在保持新狀態的同時開始向下移動系列甚至從細分市場向下移動，因此可能會產生影響。

It could affect variable marketing because again, what we've talked about earlier around subvention costs.

它可能會影響可變營銷，因為我們之前已經討論過有關補助成本的問題。

So there's so many different impacts that could take place.

因此，可能會發生許多不同的影響。

The way that we have generally and largely expressed that is our view of just lower volume.

我們一般和主要表達的方式是我們對較低數量的看法。

And so that's one of the key factors that is behind our view that the industry will decline this year from last year and will decline in 2018 from 2017.

因此，這是我們認為該行業今年將比去年下滑，2018 年將從 2017 年下滑的關鍵因素之一。

Now it may play out a little bit differently than that, but the thing that is interesting so far is that what we've seen to date would suggest that, that is what's taking place right now.

現在它的結果可能與那略有不同，但到目前為止有趣的是，我們迄今為止所看到的表明，這就是現在正在發生的事情。

I don't know if Mark wants to add anything.

我不知道馬克是否想補充什麼。

One other thing.

另一件事。

When you look at the data, Bob mentioned the small overlap between new car buyers that buy used and vice versa.

當您查看數據時，Bob 提到購買二手車的新車購買者之間的重疊很小，反之亦然。

When you dig into the data, actually, the segments that are a little bit indexed a little higher are cars.

當你深入研究數據時，實際上，索引稍微高一點的細分市場是汽車。

And that's mainly compact and midsize cars where you see that.

你看到的主要是緊湊型和中型汽車。

So you could see that manifest itself on the volume side of the house on the car side of the industry.

所以你可以看到它在汽車行業的房屋體積方面表現出來。

Our last question comes from the line of Dee-Ann Durbin of The Associated Press.

我們的最後一個問題來自美聯社的 Dee-Ann Durbin。

I just wanted you to talk really briefly about recall costs that hit you in the third quarter that hit you again.

我只是想讓你簡單地談談在第三季度再次打擊你的召回成本。

What are you doing to improve quality or tackle these kind of recurring big, huge costs?

您正在做什麼來提高質量或解決這些經常性的巨額成本？

Well, first off, Dee-Ann, thanks for the question.

好吧，首先，Dee-Ann，謝謝你提出這個問題。

And obviously, we are absolutely committed to making sure that we provide top quality to our customers.

顯然，我們絕對致力於確保為客戶提供一流的品質。

And when you look at some of the work that we're doing, we're doing a lot of work obviously in making sure the initial quality of our vehicles is very good because that gives you an indication to the long-term quality.

當您查看我們正在做的一些工作時，我們顯然正在做很多工作來確保我們車輛的初始質量非常好，因為這可以讓您了解長期質量。

And whether it's our own internal measurements that we have but also external, J.D. Power and others, it shows we're making very good progress along those ways.

無論是我們自己的內部測量，還是外部的 J.D. Power 和其他測量，都表明我們在這些方面取得了很好的進展。

At the same time, one of the reasons you see, when we do have, in some cases, a recall and it's fairly large -- remember, we were a little bit ahead of the industry in terms of reducing our platforms and getting more commonality of parts across our vehicle lines.

與此同時，你看到的原因之一是，在某些情況下，我們確實有召回，而且召回規模相當大——請記住，在減少我們的平台和獲得更多通用性方面，我們稍微領先於行業我們車輛系列中的零件。

And so when there is an issue, whether it's our own issue or with a supplier, it tends to hit a bigger population.

因此，當出現問題時，無論是我們自己的問題還是與供應商的問題，它往往會影響到更多的人。

And as usual, whenever we see something from a quality standpoint, we are going to act very proactively to fix that for the customer.

和往常一樣，每當我們從質量的角度看到問題時，我們都會非常主動地為客戶解決問題。

And that's exactly what we're going to continue to do.

這正是我們將繼續做的事情。

And Dee-Ann, if I could just add to that, just maybe to help understanding.

還有 Dee-Ann，如果我可以補充一點，也許只是為了幫助理解。

So what we do in terms of costs related to quality, I'll say, is we actually reserve with every single vehicle sold a certain amount for coverages.

因此，我要說的是，我們在與質量相關的成本方面所做的是，我們實際上為每輛售出的車輛預留一定數量的保險。

So that's the 3 years, 36,000 miles, if you will.

如果你願意的話，那就是 3 年，36,000 英里。

But we also reserve for every single vehicle we sell an amount that goes into a reserve for what we call field service actions, which are our recalls.

但我們也為我們售出的每輛車預留了一筆金額，用於我們所謂的現場服務行動，也就是我們的召回。

So we reserve for that.

所以我們為此保留。

So what happens, though, is that if we get a particularly large recall that comes through that is above and beyond what we can manage within that reserve, and then effectively, it forces us to let it flow through to the bottom line more or less.

但是，如果發生了一次特別大的召回，這超出了我們在該儲備範圍內可以管理的範圍，那麼實際上，它迫使我們或多或少地讓它流入底線.

And then we've got to top up the reserve back to the level that-- we've developed a minimum level that we have to have.

然後我們必須將儲備補足到我們必須達到的最低水平。

And so we have to go back up to that minimum.

所以我們必須回到最低限度。

So a lot of recalls, you never hear about because it's covered by the reserve.

所以很多召回，你從來沒有聽說過，因為它在儲備中。

It's these sort of big onetime large ones and driven in part for the factors that Mark mentioned that force us to handle it on more of a "flow right to the bottom line" basis.

正是這些曾經的大事件，部分是由於馬克提到的因素，迫使我們在更多的“流向底線”的基礎上處理它。

That does conclude the question-and-answer portion of the call.

這確實結束了電話的問答部分。

I will now turn the call back over to Ted Cannis for any additional or closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Ted Cannis，以徵求任何補充意見或結束語。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much for participating in today's call, and we look forward to the next one.

非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議，我們期待下一次電話會議。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Earnings Conference Call.

福特汽車公司的收益電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。