福特汽車 (F) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Ford Motor Company's briefing on 2016 second-quarter financial results. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎收聽福特汽車公司 2016 年第二季度財務業績簡報。 （操作員說明）

Thank you. I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ted Cannis, Executive Director of Ford Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝。我想將會議轉交給福特投資者關係執行董事 Ted Cannis 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thanks very much, Kayla. Good morning and welcome, everybody, for our second-quarter 2016 financial results. As a reminder, copies of the press release and the presentation slides are available on Ford's investor and media websites.

非常感謝，凱拉。大家早上好，歡迎大家了解我們 2016 年第二季度的財務業績。提醒一下，新聞稿和演示幻燈片的副本可在福特的投資者和媒體網站上找到。

The results discussed today include some non-GAAP references and these are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix to the slides. Today's discussion include some forward-looking statements about our expectations for future performance. Actual results may vary and the most significant factors are included in our presentation.

今天討論的結果包括一些非 GAAP 參考資料，這些參考資料已與幻燈片附錄中最具可比性的美國 GAAP 措施進行了核對。今天的討論包括一些關於我們對未來業績預期的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能會有所不同，最重要的因素已包含在我們的演示文稿中。

As a reminder, Ford Credit will be holding a call at 11 today to review its second-quarter results and later today we will be filing our 10-Q.

提醒一下，福特信貸將於今天 11 點召開電話會議，審查其第二季度業績，今天晚些時候我們將提交 10-Q。

As discussed in our July 15 Ford University presentation, we are no longer providing sector financial statements. Instead, as you'll see in the presentation and our 10-Q as well, we are reporting segments focusing on automotive, financial services, and other business activities. Prior period amounts have been revised to reflect our reportable segment change.

正如我們在 7 月 15 日的福特大學演講中所討論的那樣，我們不再提供行業財務報表。相反，正如您將在演示文稿和我們的 10-Q 中看到的那樣，我們正在報告專注於汽車、金融服務和其他業務活動的細分市場。前期金額已修改以反映我們的報告分部變化。

Presenting today are Mark Fields, our President and CEO, and Bob Shanks, our Chief Financial Officer. Also participating are John Lawler, Vice President and Controller; Neil Schloss, Vice President and Corporate Treasurer; Paul Andonian, Director of Accounting; and Marion Harris, our Ford Credit CFO.

今天出席的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mark Fields 和我們的首席財務官 Bob Shanks。與會者還有副總裁兼財務總監 John Lawler； Neil Schloss，副總裁兼公司財務主管； Paul Andonian，會計總監；和我們的 Ford Credit 首席財務官 Marion Harris。

Mark, over to you.

馬克，交給你了。

Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. You can read our numbers and our comparisons with last year on slide 3, so what I would like to do is provide some context for the quarter.

謝謝，泰德，大家早上好。您可以在幻燈片 3 上閱讀我們的數字以及我們與去年的比較，所以我想做的是提供本季度的一些背景信息。

Overall it was a strong quarter. In fact, it was one of our best second quarters ever. And while pretax profits are down compared with last year's record second quarter, revenue was up 6%, so we grew the top line.

總體而言，這是一個強勁的季度。事實上，這是我們有史以來最好的第二季度之一。雖然稅前利潤與去年創紀錄的第二季度相比有所下降，但收入增長了 6%，因此我們實現了收入增長。

Global market share declined outside of North America, but share was up in the US and Canada. Our automotive operating cash flow was an all-time quarterly record. Europe's pretax profit almost tripled from last year and North America and Ford Credit remained strong.

北美以外的全球市場份額有所下降，但美國和加拿大的份額有所上升。我們的汽車運營現金流創下歷史季度記錄。歐洲的稅前利潤幾乎是去年的三倍，北美和福特信貸依然強勁。

Now combined with our first-quarter record, we achieved record first-half pretax profit and operating margins for both the Company and for North America. Now we continue to expect another strong year and we are committed to our full-year guidance of company pretax profit and operating margin equal to or better than last year. But at the same time, we now see a number of risks that the entire Ford team is working hard to mitigate to achieve our guidance and we will explain more as we go through the information this morning.

現在結合我們第一季度的記錄，我們在公司和北美實現了創紀錄的上半年稅前利潤和營業利潤率。現在我們繼續期待又一個強勁的一年，我們致力於實現公司稅前利潤和營業利潤率的全年指導與去年持平或更好。但與此同時，我們現在看到了整個福特團隊正在努力減輕的一些風險，以實現我們的指導，我們將在今天早上查看信息時解釋更多。

Now turning to slide 4, we remain absolutely focused on the four drivers of shareholder value and I'm pleased to say we made progress on each. As I mentioned, we grew our top line and we announced actions to continue to grow our core business, including new global SUVs and also positive sales momentum at Lincoln.

現在轉到幻燈片 4，我們仍然絕對關注股東價值的四個驅動因素，我很高興地說我們在每個方面都取得了進展。正如我所提到的，我們增加了我們的收入，我們宣布了繼續發展我們核心業務的行動，包括新的全球 SUV 以及林肯的積極銷售勢頭。

We also continued to pursue emerging opportunities such as our investment in Pivotal, which will further strengthen our cloud-based software capabilities. Our returns were strong, as I just reviewed.

我們還繼續尋求新興機會，例如我們對 Pivotal 的投資，這將進一步加強我們基於雲的軟件能力。正如我剛剛回顧的那樣，我們的回報很豐厚。

Now in terms of risk, we received a rating upgrade by Fitch. Our business units outside of North America, collectively, were profitable for the third consecutive quarter and we achieved $1.6 billion of cost performance in the first half versus our plan. And in terms of rewards, we distributed regular dividends of $600 million to our shareholders.

現在就風險而言，我們獲得了惠譽的評級升級。我們在北美以外的業務部門總體上連續第三個季度實現盈利，上半年我們實現了 16 億美元的成本效益，超出了我們的計劃。在獎勵方面，我們向股東派發了 6 億美元的定期股息。

Now slide 5 shows some of the other highlights in the quarter, and I won't go through each of these, but as you can see, they span everything from awards for new products and engines to progress in our quality efforts to launches of products and connected services.

現在幻燈片 5 顯示了本季度的其他一些亮點，我不會逐一逐一介紹，但正如您所見，它們涵蓋了從新產品和引擎的獎項到我們在質量方面取得的進步以及產品發布的方方面面和連接的服務。

But I will just point out in quality, the J.D. Power IQS survey. Lincoln came in at number seven and Ford came in at number 11; both improved. And really puts an exclamation point on the efforts that our team has around continuously improving our quality for our customers.

但我只想指出 J.D. Power IQS 調查的質量。林肯排在第 7 位，福特排在第 11 位；兩者都有所改善。並且真正為我們的團隊為不斷提高我們的客戶質量所做的努力加上了感嘆號。

Now let's turn to our view of the global business environment and how we see it on slide 6. At the macro level, we are seeing higher levels of economic uncertainty. Financial markets and the sterling and euro are affected by Brexit and global interest rates have been reverting to recent lows.

現在讓我們轉向我們對全球商業環境的看法以及我們如何看待幻燈片 6。在宏觀層面，我們看到更高水平的經濟不確定性。金融市場以及英鎊和歐元受到英國退歐的影響，全球利率已經回到近期低點。

Now, US growth is improving after a weak start that we saw at the beginning of the year, but we are seeing signs of a maturing US recovery. We do expect continued growth in China, albeit that is supported by government stimulus measures, but we are also seeing increased pressures on margins. And while conditions in Brazil remain difficult, Russia is actually showing some signs of stabilization.

現在，美國經濟增長在經歷了年初的疲軟開局後正在改善，但我們也看到了美國復甦成熟的跡象。我們確實預計中國將繼續增長，儘管這得到了政府刺激措施的支持，但我們也看到利潤率壓力增加。雖然巴西的情況仍然困難，但俄羅斯實際上已經顯示出一些穩定的跡象。

Now for Ford specifically, our risks are around lower pricing and higher incentives than we expected in the US and China; a softer, although still strong, US retail industry and the effects of Brexit on our operations in Europe; a more difficult external environment across many of our markets in Middle East and Africa; a weaker Chinese RMB; and lower-than-expected auction values for smaller vehicles leased in the US.

現在特別是對於福特，我們的風險在於比我們在美國和中國預期的更低的定價和更高的激勵；美國零售業走軟但仍然強勁，以及英國脫歐對我們在歐洲業務的影響；我們在中東和非洲的許多市場面臨更加艱難的外部環境；中國人民幣走弱；在美國租賃的小型車輛的拍賣價格低於預期。

So with that I would like to have Bob take us through our performance and I will come back at the end and cover our outlook. Bob?

因此，我想讓 Bob 帶我們了解一下我們的表現，最後我會回來介紹我們的展望。鮑勃？

Thank you, Mark. We'll start on slide 8, which is our key financial summary, and what I would like to do is just highlight a few of the key metrics in the first column on the second quarter. And then I will do the same for the first-half period, which is the third column.

謝謝你，馬克。我們將從幻燈片 8 開始，這是我們的主要財務摘要，我想做的只是突出顯示第二季度第一列中的一些關鍵指標。然後我將在上半期執行相同的操作，即第三列。

As Mark said, it was a strong quarter for us. And to demonstrate that, if we look at the company-adjusted pretax results, you can see $3 billion, which was down 9% from a year ago, but it was, as Mark said, one of the strongest second quarters that we've had. If you go down further to net income attributable to Ford at $2 billion, that was also down 9% and adjusted earnings per share down 4%.

正如馬克所說，這對我們來說是一個強勁的季度。為了證明這一點，如果我們查看公司調整後的稅前業績，您會看到 30 億美元，比一年前下降 9%，但正如馬克所說，這是我們有史以來最強勁的第二季度之一有。如果你進一步降低歸屬於福特的淨收入 20 億美元，那也下降了 9%，調整後的每股收益下降了 4%。

If you go to the bottom of the chart, you can see the liquidity metrics. I will come back to those later, so I won't go through them individually at this point, but you can see they were very, very strong.

如果轉到圖表底部，您可以看到流動性指標。稍後我會回過頭來討論這些，所以我現在不會單獨介紹它們，但你可以看到它們非常非常強大。

If you look at the year-to-date column, let's hit the same lines on the chart. Company-adjusted pretax results of $6.8 billion. Remember we had the best-ever first quarter, so when we combined that with this strong second quarter we ended up with a record for the first half, $6.8 billion; that was up 35%.

如果您查看年初至今的列，讓我們點擊圖表上的相同線條。公司調整後的稅前業績為 68 億美元。請記住，我們有有史以來最好的第一季度，所以當我們將其與強勁的第二季度結合起來時，我們最終創下了上半年的紀錄，68 億美元；上漲了 35%。

And net income of $4.4 billion, that was up 33%. Then the adjusted earnings per share for the first half of $1.20, up 45%.

淨收入為 44 億美元，增長 33%。那麼上半年調整後每股收益為1.20美元，同比增長45%。

Let's go on to the next slide, slide 9, and here what I want to focus on are the absolutes before we get into some of the details within both the Automotive segment and Ford Credit.

讓我們繼續看下一張幻燈片，第 9 張幻燈片，在我們進入汽車部門和福特信貸的一些細節之前，我想在這裡重點關注的是絕對值。

Looking at the Automotive segment you can see the strong result at North America, $2.7 billion. It was down about 5%. Europe was, clearly, a highlight among all the business units in the quarter. It was up 3 times from where we were last year, the best second-quarter result ever, and that included some impact from Brexit, which I will talk about in just a minute. But really a great result in Europe.

看看汽車領域，您可以看到北美的強勁業績，達到 27 億美元。它下降了大約 5%。顯然，歐洲是本季度所有業務部門中的亮點。它比去年增長了 3 倍，是有史以來最好的第二季度結果，其中包括英國退歐的一些影響，我將在稍後討論。但在歐洲確實是一個很好的結果。

And if you look at Financial Services, that includes a $400 million profit from Ford Credit. It was down and I will explain what was behind that. If you look at the other business units, they were all in losses. South America at $265 million, down a little bit; Middle East and Africa down also at $65 million loss; and then we had our first loss in Asia Pacific in 13 quarters at $8 million. That decline was driven largely by China and we will talk about that later in the presentation as well.

如果你看一下金融服務，其中包括來自 Ford Credit 的 4 億美元利潤。它失敗了，我將解釋其背後的原因。如果你看看其他業務部門，它們都處於虧損狀態。南美洲為 2.65 億美元，略有下降；中東和非洲也虧損 6500 萬美元；然後我們在 13 個季度中首次在亞太地區虧損 800 萬美元。這種下降主要是由中國推動的，我們稍後也會在演講中討論這一點。

I will highlight here All Other; that's one of our new segments. That is primarily in this quarter net interest expense.

我將在這裡突出顯示所有其他；那是我們的新細分市場之一。這主要是本季度的淨利息支出。

Okay, let's go on to slide 10. And, as usual, we will look at the key metrics for the Automotive sector. Very strong absolutes across the board, but when you look at the comparisons versus last year some mixed results.

好的，讓我們繼續看幻燈片 10。和往常一樣，我們將研究汽車行業的關鍵指標。整體上非常強的絕對值，但是當你看與去年的比較時，結果喜憂參半。

Wholesales flat. Revenue up 5%. Market share, Mark explained that, was down everywhere but in North America. And the operating margin was a strong 7.7% and the results at $2.8 billion. Then if you look at the very bottom of the page, we've provided you with the same metrics on the year-over-year changes for the first half and you can see very strong performance right across the board, with the exception of market share, where we were down just a touch.

批發平。收入增長 5%。馬克解釋說，除了北美以外，其他地方的市場份額都在下降。營業利潤率高達 7.7%，結果為 28 億美元。然後，如果您查看頁面的最底部，我們為您提供了上半年同比變化的相同指標，您可以看到除市場之外的所有方面都非常強勁的表現分享，我們只差一點點。

Okay, let's go on to the next slide, slide 11, and we will start breaking the Automotive segment down. This is a view of what happened on a year-over-year basis that resulted in the decline of $130 million.

好的，讓我們繼續看下一張幻燈片，第 11 張幻燈片，我們將開始分解汽車部分。這是對導致 1.3 億美元下降的同比情況的看法。

When you look at it overall you can see that market factors, which is volume, mix, and net pricing, was down and that was driven by higher incentives. And that was mainly in the US. We will talk about that when we get to the North American slides.

當你從整體上看時，你會發現市場因素，即數量、組合和淨定價，都在下降，這是由更高的激勵措施驅動的。那主要是在美國。我們將在播放北美幻燈片時討論這一點。

You can see exchange was an issue of $269 million. We did have some favorable cost performance and that was largely driven by commodities. And then in Other to the far right, that was largely the gain on sale of an equity investment I will touch on a bit when we get to North America.

你可以看到交易所發行了 2.69 億美元。我們確實有一些有利的性價比，這主要是由商品驅動的。然後在最右邊的“其他”中，這主要是出售股權投資的收益，當我們到達北美時，我會稍微談一談。

Okay, let's go into North America on slide 12 and look at the key metrics. Again, very strong quarter for North America. The top line was essentially flat to very slightly up in the case of revenue.

好的，讓我們在幻燈片 12 上進入北美並查看關鍵指標。再次，北美非常強勁的季度。就收入而言，收入基本持平或略有上升。

Market share flat, but as was already mentioned, within that the US was up. And that was higher fleet performance, but also we had very strong retail share improvement for F-Series. Canada was up, Mexico was down; that's how we ended up with sort of flat on a year-over-year basis.

市場份額持平，但正如已經提到的，其中美國有所上升。那是更高的機隊性能，而且我們的 F 系列零售份額也有非常強勁的提升。加拿大上漲，墨西哥下跌；這就是我們最終同比持平的原因。

When you look at margin, 11.3%. That was down 0.9% but obviously it was over 11%. That's an outstanding level of efficiency and performance for the North American operations. And then $2.7 billion.

當你看保證金時，11.3%。下降了 0.9%，但顯然超過了 11%。對於北美業務而言，這是出色的效率和績效水平。然後是 27 億美元。

If you look down at the bottom of the slide, really strong results in the first half, best-ever for North America. We had very strong growth; we grew the share, 12.1% margin, and $5.8 billion in profit, up 31%. So really strong performance in the first half for North America.

如果你向下看幻燈片的底部，上半年的結果非常強勁，是北美有史以來最好的。我們的增長非常強勁；我們增加了份額、12.1% 的利潤率和 58 億美元的利潤，增長了 31%。北美上半年的表現非常強勁。

All right, let's go to the next slide and look at what happened in the quarter.

好吧，讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，看看本季度發生了什麼。

On a year-over-year basis here, the story is largely around incentives. If you look at the market factors, you can see that they were down on a net basis driven by the incentives. Essentially what we are seeing is, over time and particularly as the US industry has started to plateau and we are starting to get to a more mature part of the economic cycle in the US, we've seen sort of a very gradual rising, very modestly rising level of incentives for the industry. And we have been increasing along with that.

與去年同期相比，故事主要圍繞激勵措施展開。如果你看一下市場因素，你會發現它們在激勵措施的推動下在淨基礎上下降了。從本質上講，我們看到的是，隨著時間的推移，尤其是隨著美國工業開始趨於平穩，我們開始進入美國經濟周期的一個更成熟的階段，我們看到了一種非常漸進的上升，非常行業激勵力度小幅提升。我們一直在增加。

Now, what you also have happening on a year-over-year basis, which is maybe a little unique to us, is the fact that a year ago we had very low incentives for the F-150. Because if you remember, we were coming out of the launch of Kansas City -- I think it was around May when we got to full production -- so we had very tight incentives, very high ATPs on F-150. We've become more normal, if you will.

現在，你也發生了逐年發生的事情，這對我們來說可能有點獨特，是一年前我們對 F-150 的激勵非常低。因為如果你還記得的話，我們正從堪薩斯城的發射中走出來——我想是在 5 月左右，我們開始全面生產——所以我們有非常嚴格的激勵措施，F-150 的 ATP 非常高。如果你願意的話，我們已經變得更正常了。

We're still in a good position relative to our peer set within the -- particularly our domestic peers in terms of ATPs for F-150, as well as incentives, but there was a factor of that in our incentives as well. But there's no question that we've seen an increase and that is more than what we had expected when we developed our plan at the beginning of the year.

相對於我們在 F-150 的 ATP 以及激勵措施方面的同行，我們仍然處於有利地位 - 特別是我們的國內同行，但在我們的激勵措施中也有一個因素。但毫無疑問，我們看到了增長，這超出了我們在年初制定計劃時的預期。

When you look at costs, we were favorable on costs overall. That was, again, driven by incentives -- rather commodities. Most of the good news on commodities in the Company occurred in North America. Then, to the far right, you can see the good news from that equity sale, which was the OEConnection sale that occurred in the quarter, and that benefited North America.

當您查看成本時，我們對整體成本有利。再次，這是由激勵而非商品驅動的。公司大宗商品利好消息主要發生在北美地區。然後，在最右邊，您可以看到股權出售的好消息，即本季度發生的 OEConnection 出售，這使北美受益。

Before we leave the slide I just want to go back to mix. Mix is a very important part of the story across many of the business units, but certainly North America was one of the stronger stories. That's product mix in the case of North America. When I get to Europe, you're going to see the same thing along with good news on series mix and options.

在我們離開幻燈片之前，我只想回去混音。 Mix 是許多業務部門的故事中非常重要的一部分，但北美當然是更強大的故事之一。這就是北美的產品組合。當我到達歐洲時，你會看到同樣的事情以及關於系列組合和選項的好消息。

A very important part of what's happening as we are seeing sort of the car recession, but this has actually been part of our strategy to focus on higher margin, more profitable vehicles, but also where the consumers are going.

當我們看到汽車衰退時，正在發生的事情的一個非常重要的部分，但這實際上是我們專注於更高利潤、更有利可圖的車輛的戰略的一部分，同時也是消費者的去向。

The other thing I would just note on this slide is that we have picked up in warranty costs. You can see that in the callout box, the Takata recall. That was about $100 million.

我要在這張幻燈片上註意的另一件事是我們已經增加了保修費用。您可以在標註框中看到高田召回事件。那大約是1億美元。

And I just want to digress for just a moment to say our approach inside Ford is, unfortunately, recalls are a normal part of business. So we do not put recalls in special items or exclude them from margins or exclude them from operating results as some of our other competitors do. It is, again, unfortunately a normal part of business.

我只想離題一會兒，不幸的是，我們在福特內部的做法是，召回是業務的正常組成部分。因此，我們不會像其他一些競爭對手那樣將召回歸入特殊項目或將其排除在利潤之外或將其排除在經營業績之外。不幸的是，這再次成為業務的正常組成部分。

We will report them in operating results. We always have; we always will. And if there's something of consequence that occurs we will just call it out and you can make your own judgments in terms of whether that's a run rate or not. Certainly, they are lumpy.

我們將在經營業績中報告它們。我們總是有；我們總是會的。如果發生了一些重要的事情，我們會把它說出來，你可以根據這是否是運行率做出自己的判斷。當然，它們是塊狀的。

Just a little bit more color on the US industry. Obviously, as Bob mentioned, is it still remains at fairly healthy levels overall. The competitive environment has increased as growth has slowed and the retail industry demand has weakened, as we saw in the second quarter. This has resulted in higher industry incentives with -- if you look at the retail industry sales rate, it actually declined three out of the last four months.

美國工業只是多了一點顏色。顯然，正如 Bob 提到的那樣，它總體上仍然保持在相當健康的水平。正如我們在第二季度所看到的那樣，隨著增長放緩和零售業需求減弱，競爭環境有所增加。這導致了更高的行業激勵——如果你看一下零售業的銷售率，它實際上在過去四個月中下降了三個月。

So the bottom line is that we've seen a tougher pricing environment this quarter and we will face one going forward. As Bob mentioned with the car segment, the most impact as various competitors look to protect their share.

所以最重要的是，我們在本季度看到了更艱難的定價環境，我們將面臨一個前進的環境。正如鮑勃在汽車領域提到的那樣，影響最大的是各種競爭對手希望保護自己的份額。

Okay, let's move on to slide 14 and we will talk about South America.

好的，讓我們轉到幻燈片 14，我們將討論南美洲。

In South America, this is a story that is very much what it has been the last number of quarters. External conditions, particularly in Brazil, continue to be pretty challenging. We saw a decline in the top line; you can see double digits.

在南美洲，這是一個與過去幾個季度非常相似的故事。外部條件，尤其是在巴西，仍然充滿挑戰。我們看到收入下降；你可以看到兩位數。

In the case of revenue, you can see it was down 17%. That decline is entirely due to the weaker currencies. Market share was down as we focused on the most profitable parts of our portfolio amid increasing discounts across the industry. And then you can see the results in terms of margin and pretax results. This is largely what you are also seeing in the first half.

就收入而言，您可以看到它下降了 17%。這種下降完全是由於貨幣疲軟。在整個行業的折扣不斷增加的情況下，由於我們專注於投資組合中最賺錢的部分，因此市場份額有所下降。然後您可以看到利潤率和稅前結果方面的結果。這在很大程度上也是你在上半年看到的。

I will say that the team has done -- continues to do a good job of focusing on the things that it can manage, particularly on cost. And if you go to the next slide on slide 15, you can see the results of that. We, once again, delivered very strong cost performance.

我要說的是，該團隊已經完成了——繼續專注於它可以管理的事情，尤其是成本方面。如果你轉到幻燈片 15 的下一張幻燈片，你可以看到它的結果。我們再次提供了非常強大的性價比。

If you think about last year we delivered over $400 million of good news on cost performance. We had good news in the first quarter, another good tranche of performance during the second quarter. But as you can see just to the left of that, we continued to see difficulties in pricing enough to be able to offset the effects of high local inflation and the weaker local currencies.

如果您回想一下去年我們發布了超過 4 億美元的性價比好消息。我們在第一季度收到了好消息，這是第二季度的又一佳績。但正如您在左側看到的那樣，我們繼續看到定價困難足以抵消當地高通脹和疲軟當地貨幣的影響。

Industry still an issue, as you can see, in the volume and mix. Then the balance sheet actually helped us this time. This was the strengthening of the Argentinean peso. We are seeing good things in Argentina. The new government is really getting traction in terms of turning that economy in a better direction and so that gave us some good news in the quarter.

如您所見，行業在數量和組合方面仍然是一個問題。那麼這次資產負債表實際上幫助了我們。這是阿根廷比索的走強。我們在阿根廷看到了美好的事物。新政府在使經濟朝著更好的方向發展方面確實獲得了牽引力，因此這在本季度給了我們一些好消息。

Okay, let's go on to Europe, which as I mentioned earlier, was a bright spot for us. If you looked at wholesales and revenue, up double digits. Share actually declined a little bit; that was market mix. The Southern European markets grew, if you will, disproportionately.

好的，讓我們繼續歐洲，正如我之前提到的，歐洲對我們來說是一個亮點。如果您查看批發和收入，則增長兩位數。份額實際上下降了一點；那是市場組合。如果你願意的話，南歐市場的增長不成比例。

Our share performance there is a little below the average of what it is in Europe and so that affected us. Margin was 5.8%, which is very, very good performance, and the profit that I touched on earlier.

我們在那裡的股票表現略低於歐洲的平均水平，因此影響了我們。利潤率為 5.8%，這是非常非常好的表現，也是我之前提到的利潤。

Then, if you look at the first half, we made $900 million in the quarter, a margin of 6%, and you can see very strong growth at the top line as well. And share was flat. So this was a really great story.

然後，如果你看看上半年，我們在本季度賺了 9 億美元，利潤率為 6%，你也可以看到收入增長非常強勁。份額持平。所以這是一個非常棒的故事。

The other thing I want to highlight, we were committed to Russia. We stayed in Russia. We've been working to make sure that we are responding to the environment in Russia and it's paying off. Within the good news that we saw in the quarter, Russia was actually a good part of that.

我想強調的另一件事是，我們致力於俄羅斯。我們留在了俄羅斯。我們一直在努力確保我們對俄羅斯的環境做出回應，並且正在取得成效。在我們在本季度看到的好消息中，俄羅斯實際上是其中的重要組成部分。

And on that note, let's turn to the year over year on slide 17. You can see the improvement of $300 million. It was market performance; it was favorable cost performance.

在這一點上，讓我們轉到幻燈片 17 上的年復一年。你可以看到增加了 3 億美元。這是市場表現；這是有利的性價比。

And then, in the case of exchange -- this is the first time that you will see us talking about Brexit. We had bad news of about $60 million on the balance sheet related to the weak sterling.

然後，就交換而言——這是你第一次看到我們談論英國脫歐。我們的資產負債表上有大約 6000 萬美元的壞消息與英鎊疲軟有關。

One of the things that is important to note is that our strategy on hedging for the Company is to go in to a year with certain of our key currencies completely hedged from an operational exposure point of view. So we came into the year with the sterling and the euro completely hedged, so we don't see any issues relative to the weakness of the sterling on an operating basis for the balance of the year. We have about 60% of next year's exposure already covered and there's a little bit that also covered all the way out into 2018.

需要注意的重要一件事是，我們對公司的對沖策略是進入一年，從運營風險的角度來看，我們的某些主要貨幣完全對沖。所以我們進入了這一年，英鎊和歐元完全對沖，所以我們認為在今年餘下的運營基礎上，英鎊的疲軟沒有任何問題。我們已經覆蓋了明年約 60% 的風險敞口，還有一點點一直覆蓋到 2018 年。

When we talk about Brexit effect later, you have to remember the $60 million because there is an impact in the second half that we will talk about that's related to a weaker industry.

當我們稍後談論英國脫歐效應時，你必須記住這 6000 萬美元，因為下半年我們將討論與較弱行業相關的影響。

Just a little more on the Brexit. Obviously, it's important because 30% of our sales in Europe are in the UK, so we are closely monitoring the situation and, of course, engaging with key stakeholders. That includes, as you can imagine, looking at consumer confidence levels, amongst other indicators.

關於英國退歐的更多信息。顯然，這很重要，因為我們在歐洲 30% 的銷售額都在英國，因此我們正在密切關注情況，當然，還會與主要利益相關者進行接觸。正如您可以想像的那樣，這包括查看消費者信心水平以及其他指標。

And if you reflect, the industry back in the first quarter in the UK was at a record, but we saw that growth starting to decline in the second quarter ahead of the Brexit. So far as we look at July, by our reckoning, the industry is actually up in the UK, but on a retail basis it's down. So as we look going forward, the industry could be down 5% to 10% for the rest of the year depending on which outside forecast you look at.

如果你反思一下，英國第一季度的行業創下歷史新高，但我們看到在英國脫歐之前的第二季度增長開始下降。就我們來看 7 月份而言，根據我們的估計，該行業在英國實際上是在上升，但在零售基礎上它是下降的。因此，展望未來，該行業在今年餘下時間可能會下降 5% 至 10%，具體取決於您查看的外部預測。

But even within that, we will continue to work to deliver consistent market performance, including obviously continuing our strong growth in commercial vehicles.

但即便如此，我們仍將繼續努力提供一致的市場表現，顯然包括繼續我們在商用車領域的強勁增長。

This is probably the best place to talk about the ongoing effect of Brexit. We will talk about second half a little bit later in the presentation, but we are expecting to have headwinds of about $200 million this year associated with Brexit. It's a $60 million with another $140 million, $150 million related to a weaker UK industry.

這可能是談論英國退歐持續影響的最佳場所。我們將在稍後的演講中討論下半年，但我們預計今年與英國退歐相關的不利因素約為 2 億美元。這是 6000 萬美元，另外還有 1.4 億美元，其中 1.5 億美元與較弱的英國工業有關。

When you get into 2017 and 2018, we see the impact on Ford as being somewhere in the range of $400 million to $500 million in each year. And that is related, again, to weak industry or weaker industry in the UK. And then also you start to pick up a little bit of bad news on exchange, because of the fact that the hedging is only 60% in place for next year and less than that in 2018.

當你進入 2017 年和 2018 年時，我們認為每年對福特的影響在 4 億至 5 億美元之間。這再次與英國的薄弱工業或較弱的工業有關。然後你也開始在交易所收到一些壞消息，因為明年的對沖只有 60%，低於 2018 年的水平。

So that's what we're looking at. We are not going beyond that in terms of what happens once they actually leave, because there's just too much uncertainty, particularly around what will happen with tariff barriers.

這就是我們正在研究的。就他們實際離開後會發生什麼而言，我們不會超越這一點，因為不確定性太多，尤其是圍繞關稅壁壘會發生什麼。

Okay? All right, let's go on and we will talk about the Middle East and Africa on slide 18.

好的？好吧，讓我們繼續，我們將在幻燈片 18 上討論中東和非洲。

This is a story of just a bad business environment. If anything can go wrong, it seems like it has. It's low oil. It's weak currency. It's just political strife. In South Africa we've seen labor disruptions. I mean it's just, you name it, it's happening.

這是一個糟糕的商業環境的故事。如果有什麼地方可能出問題，那麼它似乎已經出問題了。是低油。這是弱貨幣。這只是政治鬥爭。在南非，我們看到了勞動力中斷。我的意思是它只是，你的名字，它正在發生。

And the results have been really weak industries. We're seeing declines of 30%, 40% in some of our markets. In some of the countries access to currency and so forth it's pretty difficult, but you can see the effect of that has only been a modest increase in the loss.

結果是真正薄弱的行業。我們看到我們的一些市場下降了 30%、40%。在某些國家/地區，獲得貨幣等非常困難，但您可以看到其影響只是損失適度增加。

The team has actually done a great job of working on the costs it can control, because it does import most of the vehicles that it sells from other business units. But they've actually done a great job on cost and they have done a good job on pricing.

該團隊實際上在控製成本方面做得很好，因為它確實進口了從其他業務部門銷售的大部分車輛。但他們實際上在成本方面做得很好，在定價方面也做得很好。

If you look at the market share, while it looks like it's down -- and in fact it is -- that is driven by the growth of the Iranian industry, which we don't participate in. The overall region is down 300,000 units. Within that, Iran is up [300,000].

如果你看一下市場份額，雖然它看起來下降了——事實上它是——這是由我們沒有參與的伊朗工業的增長推動的。整個地區下降了 300,000 台。其中，伊朗增加了 [300,000]。

So if we take Iran out, the team has actually increased our share by 0.6 points. So they are really doing a great job on share, on cost, but the headwinds across the region are just so large that we are kind of swimming in place at the moment.

所以如果我們把伊朗排除在外，球隊實際上已經將我們的份額提高了0.6分。所以他們在分享和成本方面確實做得很好，但整個地區的逆風太大了，我們現在有點原地不動。

Okay, let's go on to Asia Pacific. Asia Pacific is an interesting story. We saw a decline in wholesales. Some of that was expected because we did have a planned eight-week shutdown of our Chongqing 1 assembly plant that was for a complete overhaul of the paint booth there. So that was expected, but, frankly, there were performance issues at Ford as well. There were also issues in terms of industry segmentation that we will touch on.

好的，讓我們繼續亞太地區。亞太地區是一個有趣的故事。我們看到批發量下降。其中一些是意料之中的，因為我們確實計劃關閉我們的重慶 1 號裝配廠 8 週，以徹底檢修那裡的噴漆房。所以這是預料之中的，但坦率地說，福特也存在性能問題。我們還將涉及行業細分方面的問題。

If you look at revenue, revenue was up 17%. We did see a decline in market share -- that was China -- and if you look at the margins, obviously we were just below breakeven in margins and pretax results. And as I mentioned earlier, the first loss we've had in quite a number of quarters.

如果你看一下收入，收入增長了 17%。我們確實看到市場份額下降——那是中國——如果你看一下利潤率，顯然我們的利潤率和稅前業績略低於盈虧平衡點。正如我之前提到的，這是我們幾個季度以來的第一次虧損。

If you look at the year-to-date results, we've seen the top line grow with share as well, but again our operating margin and pretax results down from a year ago. I would highlight on the far right of the slide our China joint ventures, on an equity after-tax basis, contributed about $300 million of profit. That was down about 28%. We still had very healthy margins there at 16.1%. I think that was down about 1.2 points from where we were this time a year ago.

如果您查看年初至今的結果，我們會發現收入也隨著份額的增長而增長，但我們的營業利潤率和稅前結果再次低於一年前。我要在幻燈片的最右邊強調我們的中國合資企業，在股權稅後基礎上，貢獻了大約 3 億美元的利潤。這下降了約 28%。我們在那裡的利潤率仍然非常健康，為 16.1%。我認為這比一年前的這個時候下降了大約 1.2 個百分點。

What we have on slide 20 is a bit of what happened in terms of market share in China in the period, which really drove what happened in the region. If you look at the far left, last year we did 5.3% China. We're down about 0.9 points and you can see the factors that drove that.

我們在幻燈片 20 上看到的是這一時期中國市場份額方面發生的一些事情，這確實推動了該地區發生的事情。如果你看最左邊，去年我們在中國做了 5.3%。我們下降了大約 0.9 個百分點，您可以看到導致這種情況的因素。

Half of it was basically external. Industry mix, what that means the mix of the industry was stronger in passenger vehicles; it was weaker on commercial vehicles. We have joint ventures that participate -- two different ones that participate in each one of those.

其中一半基本上是外部的。行業組合，這意味著乘用車的行業組合更強大；它在商用車上較弱。我們有合資企業參與——兩個不同的企業參與其中的每一個。

The segmentation issue is that within commercial vehicles it was down, but it was actually up in the very low margin mini commercial segment, which we don't participate in. So if you think about the part we participate in, it was even lower and so that was the effect that it had on our share from both the industry mix change and then the segmentation within commercial vehicles.

細分問題是在商用車中它下降了，但實際上在我們不參與的利潤率非常低的微型商用車部分上升了。所以如果你想想我們參與的部分，它甚至更低，這就是它對我們從行業組合變化和商用車細分中所佔份額的影響。

And then on performance, we were off 0.4 points and that was largely around weakness in the C segment and small utilities, where we are seeing a lot of competition from the domestics that are really coming up strongly and with really better products. And so it was a difficult situation for us.

然後在性能方面，我們下降了 0.4 個百分點，這主要是由於 C 部分和小型公用事業的疲軟，我們看到來自國內的大量競爭，這些競爭確實非常強勁，而且產品真的更好。所以這對我們來說是一個困難的局面。

We also had some go-to-market strategies, frankly, and the team immediately saw these issues there. They actually started to occur in March. Immediate action was taken to address these issues and you can see, looking at the share in April, May, and June, we started to get back on track. And we feel like the second half of the year is going to be better for us and supported in part by a number of new product launches that are important that will help us.

坦率地說，我們也有一些進入市場的策略，團隊立即在那裡看到了這些問題。它們實際上是在三月份開始出現的。我們立即採取行動解決這些問題，您可以看到，查看 4 月、5 月和 6 月的份額，我們開始重回正軌。而且我們覺得今年下半年對我們來說會更好，並且在一定程度上得到了許多對我們有幫助的重要新產品發布的支持。

Just, again, a little bit more texture on that as we looked at the movement during the quarter. In terms of our performance, we have also focused on the quality of our market share. Our mix of more profitable vehicles, such as medium and large cars and SUVs and premium cars, now account for about 40% of our sales in China and that's up 5 points versus last year.

當我們在本季度觀察運動時，再一次，在這方面有更多的質感。就我們的業績而言，我們還關注市場份額的質量。我們利潤更高的汽車組合，例如中型和大型汽車、SUV 和高檔汽車，現在占我們在中國的銷售額的 40% 左右，比去年增加了 5 個百分點。

As Bob mentioned, we've taken actions to improve our market performance and we have a number of important launches: the Taurus with the 1.5-liter engine. It will be the only large car eligible for the purchase tax incentive. The new Kuga, the new Mondeo, Lincoln MKZ and Continental. And the majority of these launches will benefit us in the fourth quarter, not so much the third quarter.

正如 Bob 提到的，我們已經採取行動來改善我們的市場表現，並且我們推出了一些重要的產品：配備 1.5 升發動機的 Taurus。這將是唯一有資格享受購置稅優惠的大型汽車。新翼虎、新蒙迪歐、林肯MKZ和大陸。大多數這些發布將使我們在第四季度受益，而不是第三季度。

Okay, let's go to slide 21 and we will see what happened in terms of the year-over-year results.

好的，讓我們轉到幻燈片 21，我們將看看同比結果發生了什麼。

So I'm going to explain what you can see; I'm going to explain to you what we had expected, because it's relevant to what we just talked about. You can see market factors were slightly negative, both pricing and then you can see volume mix pretty flat.

所以我要解釋你能看到什麼；我將向您解釋我們的預期，因為它與我們剛才討論的內容相關。你可以看到市場因素略有負面，包括定價，然後你可以看到銷量組合非常平穩。

Within that there actually was quite good news on mix, so with that mix and other it was more like around $60 million, $70 million of favorable mix. And that's along the lines of what Mark talked about.

其中實際上有關於混合的好消息，所以通過這種組合和其他組合，它更像是大約 6000 萬美元，7000 萬美元的有利組合。這與 Mark 所說的一致。

When you look at the cost performance, it was up. We expected it to be up. It actually isn't up as much as what we had expected.

當您查看性價比時，它會上升。我們預計它會上升。它實際上沒有我們預期的那麼多。

Then exchange, this is a story of a weaker renminbi. As Brexit has occurred and it affected the sterling and the euro, the Chinese are now targeting their currency against a basket of currencies, not just the dollar. As those weakened, we saw the Chinese start to push down the renminbi and the response to that, and that had an effect on us.

然後兌換，這是一個人民幣貶值的故事。由於英國退歐已經發生並影響了英鎊和歐元，中國人現在將其貨幣瞄準一攬子貨幣，而不僅僅是美元。隨著這些疲軟，我們看到中國開始壓低人民幣以及對此的反應，這對我們產生了影響。

What we had expected to see in the quarter -- we didn't expect the loss obviously -- was the fact that we'd have stronger market factors. The net pricing in China has been worse than what we thought. We thought 5% to 6%; actually year-to-date it's approaching 7% or high 6%s. We are at about 7% or so.

我們預期在本季度看到的——我們沒有預料到會出現明顯的虧損——是我們擁有更強大的市場因素這一事實。中國的淨定價比我們想像的要糟糕。我們認為 5% 到 6%；實際上，年初至今它接近 7% 或高 6%s。我們大約在 7% 左右。

We think this will mitigate in the balance of the year, because if you look at last year, the decline was largely from this point through the rest of the year. So we think it will mitigate and we will end up at the high end of that range. And when you look at the volume and mix, that was the share issue that we talked about.

我們認為這將在今年餘下時間有所緩解，因為如果你看看去年，下降主要是從這一點到今年剩餘時間。所以我們認為它會減輕，我們最終會處於該範圍的高端。當您查看音量和組合時，這就是我們談到的共享問題。

So team is all over it; we're working on it. But that's really what happened to us in Asia Pacific in the quarter.

因此，團隊無處不在；我們正在努力。但這確實是本季度亞太地區發生在我們身上的事情。

Let's go on to slide 22 and we will turn to Ford Credit. Ford Credit grew -- that's the first two metrics -- double digits and that was really around the world. If you look at the pretax results, the $400 million, that was down 21%. I'll show you why in just a minute.

讓我們繼續看幻燈片 22，我們將轉向福特信貸。 Ford Credit 增長了——這是前兩個指標——兩位數，而且確實在全球範圍內。如果你看一下稅前結果，4 億美元，下降了 21%。稍後我會告訴你為什麼。

If you look at the portfolio performance, very healthy. FICO scores in a good place. Delinquencies up a bit, although I will say something about that in just a minute in terms of credit losses.

如果你看一下投資組合的表現，非常健康。 FICO得分不錯。拖欠率有所上升，不過我會在一分鐘內就信用損失談一談。

And the loss receivables up 15 basis points, actually about where it has been the last two or three quarters. It's just up a bit from the last two or three, up more from a year ago, and starting to approach the level of LTR that we saw before the Great Recession. So this is just getting back to sort of normal levels; it's not an issue, per se.

應收賬款損失上升了 15 個基點，實際上是過去兩三個季度的水平。它比過去兩三年略有上升，比一年前上升更多，並開始接近我們在大衰退之前看到的 LTR 水平。所以這只是回到了正常水平；這本身不是問題。

Let's go on to the next slide and look at the year over year. The decline was largely around lease residuals and credit losses.

讓我們繼續看下一張幻燈片，看看年復一年的情況。下降主要圍繞租賃剩餘和信用損失。

In terms of lease residuals, it's really two things and it's in the callout box. If you look at the residual gains and losses, you can see on the year-over-year basis the declines.

就租賃剩餘而言，它實際上是兩件事，它在標註框中。如果您查看剩餘收益和損失，您可以看到同比下降。

So these are vehicles that come back; do we lose money or do we gain money? We actually gained money on the returned vehicles in the quarter. We just didn't gain as much as we did a year ago, so that's how we ended up with the negative number.

所以這些是回來的車輛；我們是賠錢還是賺錢？我們實際上在本季度從退回的車輛上賺了錢。我們只是沒有像一年前那樣獲得那麼多，所以這就是我們最終得到負數的原因。

And then in terms of supplemental depreciation, this is a reflection of lower auction values and a projection of lower lease-end values, particularly for smaller vehicles. We have adjusted our depreciation glide path to those new lower endpoints and that's what's reflected there.

然後就補充折舊而言，這反映了較低的拍賣價值和較低的租賃期末價值的預測，尤其是對於小型車輛。我們已經將折舊下滑路徑調整到那些新的較低端點，這就是那裡所反映的。

When you look at the credit losses, this is largely around a couple of things. You can see the charge-offs. Those are the vehicles that we actually repossessed and then we took back to market and resold. You can see there was a decline there of $34 million and we had to increase the reserve by $31 million.

當您查看信用損失時，這主要與幾件事有關。你可以看到沖銷。這些是我們實際收回的車輛，然後我們將其帶回市場並轉售。你可以看到那裡減少了 3400 萬美元，我們不得不將準備金增加 3100 萬美元。

But the thing I wanted to mention on this is a number of things going on in here, but while the delinquencies are up a little bit, what we are seeing happen is that the number of people who actually default once they are delinquent, if you will, is increasing versus where it has been. It's not at a level that is of concern. It's actually just coming back again to a level that's more normal. I think there's been a number of articles from banks and others around that, but that's one of the factors.

但我想在此提及的是這裡發生的許多事情，但雖然拖欠率有所上升，但我們看到的是一旦拖欠就實際違約的人數，如果你將與過去相比正在增加。它不在令人擔憂的水平。它實際上只是再次回到更正常的水平。我認為銀行和其他方面已經發表了很多文章，但這是因素之一。

The other thing is that the severity -- so when we do take them back to the auction market, the severities are greater. In part because of what I mentioned in terms of the lease-end values of the vehicles are lower overall, but also because of the longer terms, people are -- the portfolio, people are turning the vehicles a bit earlier and so the severities are greater. Because of all of those factors we also have had to increase the reserve, in addition to the fact the business is just bigger and so we have increase the reserve in line with just a larger business.

另一件事是嚴重性——所以當我們將它們帶回拍賣市場時，嚴重性會更大。部分是因為我提到的車輛的租賃期末價值總體較低，但也因為從長遠來看，人們 - 投資組合，人們更早地轉向車輛，因此嚴重性是更大。由於所有這些因素，我們還不得不增加儲備金，此外，業務規模更大，因此我們增加了儲備金以適應更大的業務。

Okay, let's go to the next slide and this is looking at trends. I'm just going to talk to the two on the right. I think I have already covered -- two on the left. The two on the right I've covered.

好的，讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，這是查看趨勢。我只是要和右邊的兩個人談談。我想我已經涵蓋了 - 左邊的兩個。右邊的兩個我已經覆蓋了。

We said in the first quarter that our lease penetration would decline. It did by 3 points in the second quarter. We think again for the full year it will be lower than it was in the first quarter, and you can see that we dropped a bit more than what the overall industry did.

我們在第一季度表示，我們的租賃滲透率將下降。第二節就領先了3分。我們再次認為全年會低於第一季度，你可以看到我們的降幅比整個行業的降幅要高一些。

Then the lower left, this around what we talked about, the auction values. This is a constant mix, so it's mix the same as the second quarter. You can see that we are pretty flat in terms of our values in the second quarter compared to the first, but down from where we were a year ago. And that's largely around the smaller vehicles.

然後左下角，這就是我們談到的，拍賣價值。這是一個固定的組合，所以它與第二季度的組合相同。你可以看到，與第一季度相比，我們第二季度的價值觀相當持平，但低於一年前的水平。這主要是圍繞小型車輛。

Okay, let's turn now to cash flow. Cash flow a very, very good story for us in the quarter. It was the best ever in the quarter and the half, $4.2 billion operating the quarter, $6.9 billion in the half. It was driven by the profit, but also you can see that we had favorable working capital and we had favorable timing differences.

好的，讓我們現在轉向現金流。本季度現金流對我們來說是一個非常非常好的故事。這是有史以來最好的一個季度和一半，本季度運營 42 億美元，上半年運營 69 億美元。這是由利潤驅動的，但你也可以看到我們有有利的營運資金，而且我們有有利的時間差異。

When we look at the full year, we do expect that the $6.9 billion will come down, so what we achieved in the first half will come down because we do see negative cash flow in the second quarter, largely driven by the third quarter. And we will come back to that just a minute. But we think largely this is around the fact that working capital and the favorable timing differences will reverse by the time we get to the end of the year.

當我們回顧全年時，我們確實預計 69 億美元會下降，所以我們在上半年取得的成就將會下降，因為我們確實看到第二季度的現金流為負，這主要是受第三季度的推動。我們稍後會回到那個話題。但我們認為這主要是圍繞這樣一個事實，即營運資金和有利的時間差異將在我們到今年年底時逆轉。

I will note on this slide we're taking our capital spending projection down. The guidance had been $7.7 billion; we're taking that down to $7 billion. It's largely around efficiencies on programs that are coming to a conclusion and we're seeing we delivered them more efficiently. Also, lower non-product spending.

我會在這張幻燈片上指出，我們正在下調資本支出預測。指導價為 77 億美元；我們將其降至 70 億美元。這主要是圍繞即將得出結論的計劃的效率，我們看到我們更有效地交付了這些計劃。此外，降低非產品支出。

Okay, let's go to the balance sheet summary. This is a new slide we have developed just to capture all the balance sheet metrics.

好的，讓我們轉到資產負債表摘要。這是我們為捕捉所有資產負債表指標而製作的新幻燈片。

The only thing I will say here is the automotive balance sheet is very, very strong. Ford Credit continues to be well-capitalized and strong, as well. And then finally, in terms of pensions, we're still on track to have the pensions largely funded and derisked by the end of the year.

我在這裡唯一要說的是汽車資產負債表非常非常強勁。福特信貸繼續資本充足且實力雄厚。最後，就養老金而言，我們仍有望在年底前為養老金提供大量資金並降低風險。

Okay, now let's switch gears and let's talk more now about what lies ahead -- not only in the second half, but for the full year -- and we will touch very briefly on 2017. Of course, talk more about that at investor day in the middle of September.

好吧，現在讓我們換個話題，讓我們更多地談談未來——不僅是下半年，還有全年——我們將非常簡要地談談 2017 年。當然，在投資者日更多地討論這個在九月中旬。

What this slide basically says is, compared with our prior expectations, our prior guidance, when you look at GDP we now expect global US and Europe GDP to be somewhat softer than what we had expected. Brazil and China pretty much in line with what we've expected since the beginning of the year.

這張幻燈片基本上說的是，與我們之前的預期相比，我們之前的指導，當你看 GDP 時，我們現在預計美國和歐洲的全球 GDP 將比我們預期的要疲軟。巴西和中國與我們年初以來的預期基本一致。

When we look industry volume, we do think the global industry volume is likely to be a bit higher than we had expected. That is driven by primarily China, but also Europe is doing a bit better than we had expected; at the high end of the range that we guided to earlier in the year.

當我們看行業數量時，我們確實認為全球行業數量可能比我們預期的要高一些。這主要是由中國推動的，但歐洲的表現也比我們預期的要好一些；在我們今年早些時候指導的範圍的高端。

The softness is in the US. That is largely on the retail side of the business and also in Brazil.

柔軟在美國。這主要是在業務的零售方面，在巴西也是如此。

Now let's go on to two special attention slides that we provided to help you understand the second half, but also our view of the full-year. The first thing I want to highlight is when you look at the far left that's the $6.8 billion company profit in the first half. Record results, fantastic.

現在讓我們繼續看我們提供的兩張特別關注幻燈片，以幫助您了解下半年以及我們對全年的看法。我想強調的第一件事是，當你看到最左邊的公司上半年利潤為 68 億美元。記錄結果，太棒了。

What is in there, though, is important to understand. A lot of the issues and risks that we will talk about for the full-year, they were there in the first half. They started to appear at the first quarter and then the second quarter unfolded. We offset those risks with $1.6 billion of favorable cost performance versus what we had expected at the beginning of the year.

但是，了解其中的內容很重要。我們將在全年討論的許多問題和風險，在上半年就已經存在。他們在第一節開始出現，然後第二節展開。與我們年初的預期相比，我們以 16 億美元的有利成本效益抵消了這些風險。

It wasn't an easy quarter or easy half. We had to work to get there, but the important message of this is that those risks flow into the second half. So for us to deliver the guidance that we are committed to deliver for the full year, we have to do that all over again.

這不是一個輕鬆的季度或輕鬆的一半。我們必須努力做到這一點，但重要的信息是這些風險會流入下半場。因此，為了提供我們承諾全年提供的指導，我們必須重新做一遍。

We're going to have to deliver stronger actions on cost. We're going to have to go back and look at the top line as well and find every dollar of revenue that we can get. That's what that next-to-last bar represents, the profit improvement actions. So we do that and we are committed to doing that; then we are able to deliver the guidance, which again we are committed to do. And that's what the right-hand bar reflects.

我們將不得不採取更有力的成本行動。我們將不得不回過頭來查看頂線，並找到我們可以獲得的每一美元收入。這就是倒數第二個柱狀圖所代表的利潤改善行動。所以我們這樣做並且我們致力於這樣做；然後我們就能夠提供指導，我們再次承諾這樣做。這就是右側欄所反映的內容。

What we're highlighting in between there with the red bars are the factors that are going to drive to a lower second half than is normal. Second half is normally lower; that's what the first red bar represents. But there's some other actions in there that I won't go through individually, other than I will touch on Super Duty, that will give us a lower second half than what would be normal.

我們在中間用紅色條突出顯示的是將導致下半年低於正常水平的因素。下半年通常較低；這就是第一個紅色條代表的內容。但是還有一些我不會單獨進行的其他操作，除了我會談到 Super Duty 之外，這將使我們的下半場比正常情況下要低。

Super Duty is a very, very important product. It's high volume, it's very high margin. It's a big changeover because we have not had a complete redesign of this product for 19, 20 years. It's going into a big plant. It's aluminum. It's a new frame. It's powertrain upgrades. It's new features. It's new technologies.

Super Duty 是一款非常非常重要的產品。它的銷量很高，利潤率非常高。這是一個很大的轉變，因為我們已經 19、20 年沒有對這個產品進行過徹底的重新設計。它要進入一個大工廠。是鋁的。這是一個新的框架。就是動力總成升級。是新功能。是新技術。

We really haven't touched a lot of this product for 19 years, so when we make this change, obviously, it's going to have an impact in the quarter from the launch affect and so forth, the cost, but even as we go through the quarter, we expect to have some impact because we do think we will have lower contribution margins coming out of this than what we had going in. Still very high contribution margins, among the best in the portfolio.

我們真的已經 19 年沒有接觸過很多這個產品了，所以當我們做出這個改變時，很明顯，它會在這個季度產生影響，比如發布影響等等，成本，但即使我們經歷了本季度，我們預計會產生一些影響，因為我們確實認為我們由此產生的邊際收益將低於我們進入的邊際收益。邊際收益仍然非常高，在投資組合中名列前茅。

But the new product, which will be far superior than the one that we have today and certainly position the product to be a winner and a leader over the next decade and meet the regulatory requirements that we have to meet -- there will be lower contribution margins when we come out of the launch and that will flow through into the fourth quarter and the full years. Now what will happen over time is we will start to get the cost reductions which we normally get, which is what benefited the older F-Series over the course of that 19 year cycle. But it will also drive a weaker-than-normal third quarter, along with some of these other factors.

但是新產品將遠遠優於我們今天擁有的產品，並且肯定會將該產品定位為未來十年的贏家和領導者，並滿足我們必須滿足的監管要求——貢獻將會降低當我們推出時的利潤率將流入第四季度和全年。現在隨著時間的推移會發生的事情是我們將開始獲得我們通常獲得的成本降低，這就是在 19 年周期的過程中使舊的 F 系列受益的原因。但它也將推動第三季度弱於正常水平，以及其他一些因素。

So to put that into context, usually the third quarter is about a quarter of our full-year results. It's likely to be half of that or lower and that's largely around the F-Series effect.

因此，考慮到這一點，通常第三季度大約是我們全年業績的四分之一。它可能是那個的一半或更低，這主要是圍繞 F 系列效應。

Let's go to the next slide. Some of those risks that we talked about that were in the first quarter largely -- or first half and that flow through into the year are shown here. It's around higher Ford and industry incentives. We've talked about that. They are up; we're up in line with that. The weakness or the softness in the US retail industry; we see the second half actually being softer than the first half on an absolute basis. Again, that is retail.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片。我們談到的一些風險主要出現在第一季度 - 或上半年，並且流入今年的風險如下所示。它圍繞著更高的福特和行業激勵措施。我們已經談過了。他們起來了；我們與此一致。美國零售業的弱點或疲軟；我們看到下半年實際上比上半年在絕對基礎上更軟。同樣，這就是零售。

These are absolutely strong levels. They're just not as strong as what we had expected. In fact, looking into 2017 we think that we will see further softness as the cycle matures.

這些是絕對強大的水平。他們只是沒有我們預期的那麼強大。事實上，展望 2017 年，我們認為隨著周期的成熟，我們將看到進一步的疲軟。

If you go down the page, Middle East and Africa, I've already talked about it. That's going to continue, the situation that we are facing. We are responding to that.

如果你往下看，中東和非洲，我已經談過了。這將繼續，我們面臨的情況。我們正在對此做出回應。

In Asia Pacific the higher -- the lower net pricing, the weaker exchange. We saw that; we're still dealing with it. And then Ford Credit, we have addressed the US auction values, but it will give us a lower second half, in line with what we saw in the first half when we earned over $900 million.

在亞太地區，價格越高——淨定價越低，交易越弱。我們看到了；我們仍在處理它。然後是福特信貸，我們已經解決了美國的拍賣價值，但它會給我們帶來較低的下半年收入，這與我們在上半年賺取超過 9 億美元時所看到的情況一致。

The opportunity is Europe. We made a lot of money in Europe in the first half. Clearly have opportunity versus what we had expected at the beginning of the year, but we have to deal with Brexit. And we talked about that already.

機會在歐洲。上半年我們在歐洲賺了很多錢。與我們年初的預期相比，顯然有機會，但我們必須應對英國退歐。我們已經談過了。

So we see these risks. We have seen them since the beginning of the year. We've been dealing with them very successfully. We will do so in the second half, but that is work that is still yet ahead of us.

所以我們看到了這些風險。我們從年初就看到了他們。我們與他們打交道非常成功。我們將在下半年這樣做，但這仍然是擺在我們面前的工作。

Mark will talk to that in his comments, which I will turn over to him now.

馬克將在他的評論中談到這一點，我現在將其轉交給他。

Great. Thanks, Bob. As you can see on slide 30, we remain committed to our 2016 guidance. As we mentioned, we are facing risks to achieving that.

偉大的。謝謝，鮑勃。正如您在幻燈片 30 中看到的那樣，我們仍然致力於我們的 2016 年指南。正如我們所提到的，我們面臨著實現這一目標的風險。

Now I would like to talk about what we're going to do about it. If you go to slide 31, it shows you the improvement actions that we already have underway in the Company.

現在我想談談我們將要做什麼。如果您轉到幻燈片 31，它會向您展示我們已經在公司進行的改進行動。

To start, as we match production to demand and be very consistent around that, that will help reduce manufacturing costs. We have implemented an aggressive company-wide attack plan on costs and, as Bob mentioned, it builds on the considerable cost progress that we achieved in the first half of the year with that $1.6 billion in cost improvements we delivered versus our plan. As you can imagine, it looks at everything from material costs to marketing and selling efficiencies to freight and admin reductions.

首先，當我們將生產與需求相匹配並圍繞這一點保持一致時，這將有助於降低製造成本。我們已經在全公司範圍內實施了一項積極的成本攻擊計劃，正如鮑勃所提到的，它建立在我們今年上半年取得的可觀成本進展的基礎上，與我們的計劃相比，我們交付了 16 億美元的成本改進。正如您想像的那樣，它會考慮從材料成本到營銷和銷售效率再到運費和管理費減少的方方面面。

Now, at the same time, we have to put special attention on our go-to-market plans in the US and China to deliver even more revenue and cost opportunities. In addition, we are also utilizing our expanded data and analytics team to really pinpoint immediate areas of improvement in our market factors, including better volume and mix and pricing, which will in turn drive revenue.

現在，與此同時，我們必須特別關注我們在美國和中國的上市計劃，以提供更多的收入和成本機會。此外，我們還利用我們擴大的數據和分析團隊來真正查明我們市場因素的直接改進領域，包括更好的數量、組合和定價，這將反過來推動收入。

And then, finally, we have a number of significant vehicle launches around the world this year. And we are challenging our team to deliver even more revenue and cost opportunities as we launch those vehicles and take advantage of those launches. So we are aggressively executing on all these actions and, of course, we will provide an update on our progress during our investor day on September 14.

然後，最後，我們今年在世界各地推出了許多重要的汽車。當我們推出這些車輛並利用這些發佈時，我們正在挑戰我們的團隊提供更多的收入和成本機會。因此，我們正在積極執行所有這些行動，當然，我們將在 9 月 14 日的投資者日期間提供最新進展。

In summary, and in turning to slide 32, again I would like to put the quarter in context for you. We had a strong second quarter. We had record cash flow and we had a record start to this year. At the same time, we are seeing more pressure throughout the business for the remainder of the year.

總而言之，在轉到幻燈片 32 時，我想再次為您介紹一下本季度的情況。我們有一個強勁的第二季度。我們有創紀錄的現金流，今年我們有一個創紀錄的開端。與此同時，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們看到整個業務的壓力更大。

Now some of it, as we discussed, is expected, such as the launch of the Super Duty in North America, and some of it is not expected, such as the higher Ford and industry incentives in North America, a softening of the US retail industry, and uncertainty in Europe due to the Brexit effects. As a result, we are calling the second half of this year, and particularly the third quarter, to be much weaker than normal.

現在，正如我們所討論的，其中一些是預期的，例如在北美推出 Super Duty，而有些則不是預期的，例如北美更高的福特和行業激勵措施，美國零售業的疲軟行業，以及英國退歐影響導致的歐洲不確定性。因此，我們認為今年下半年，尤其是第三季度，將遠低於正常水平。

Now I just want to caution you against using the second half of the year as an indicative run rate for 2017. It isn't. We expect 2017 to be another solid year for Ford, despite the likely absence of growth in the US industry volume and Brexit effects in Europe.

現在我只想提醒您不要使用今年下半年作為 2017 年的指示性運行率。事實並非如此。我們預計 2017 年對福特來說將是又一個穩健的一年，儘管美國工業銷量可能沒有增長且歐洲受到英國脫歐的影響。

Now I think you know us very well. The Ford team remains committed to delivering our plan for this year but we also have a long track record of calling risks as soon as we see them and acting decisively to deal with them. And that is exactly what we are doing today.

現在我覺得你很了解我們。福特團隊仍然致力於實現我們今年的計劃，但我們也有在發現風險後立即報告風險並果斷採取行動加以處理的長期記錄。而這正是我們今天正在做的。

So with that we would love to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Johnson, Barclays.

（操作員說明）Brian Johnson，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. Want to talk a little bit about North America. A couple of related questions.

早上好。想談談北美。幾個相關的問題。

First, we talk about the inventory situation at the end of 1Q. Certainly we tracked how it's developing during 2Q and, even backing out Super Duty safety stocks, it looked like coming into the quarter there was a fair amount of inventory. How much of the incentive activity has been related to working that down and perhaps versus sort of broader trends? Then what's your thinking on the trajectory of industry sales, particularly retail sales, through the second half and into 2017?

首先說一季度末的庫存情況。當然，我們跟踪了它在第二季度的發展情況，甚至退出了 Super Duty 安全庫存，進入本季度似乎有相當數量的庫存。有多少激勵活動與降低這種趨勢有關，或許與某種更廣泛的趨勢有關？那麼您對下半年到 2017 年的行業銷售，尤其是零售銷售的軌蹟有何看法？

Brian, let me take the second half of your question. Bob will take the first one on industry sales.

布賴恩，讓我回答你問題的後半部分。 Bob 將第一個參加行業銷售。

Here's how I think we'd characterize the market. If you recall, vehicle sales for the industry grew at a really good pace in the early stages of the economic recovery. And if you recall, it actually outpaced the overall economic growth at the time.

以下是我認為我們將如何描述市場。如果你還記得，在經濟復甦的早期階段，該行業的汽車銷量增長非常好。如果你還記得的話，它實際上超過了當時的整體經濟增長。

So while the industry remains at fairly healthy levels, the competitive environment has intensified as that growth has moderated and as we've seen some of the softness in the retail demand. In that environment, you have seen, as we said, incentives creep up and we have been about in line with that.

因此，儘管該行業仍處於相當健康的水平，但隨著增長放緩以及我們看到零售需求有所疲軟，競爭環境已經加劇。在那種環境下，你已經看到，正如我們所說，激勵措施逐漸增加，我們一直在與此保持一致。

But also I think what it will result in probably for the remainder of this year, Brian, is a fairly volatile kind of SAAR factor from month-to-month, because that will be influenced by any particular OEM or brand that wants to increase their incentives to maybe juice their market share or whatever.

但我也認為它可能會在今年剩餘時間裡產生什麼，布賴恩，是一個相當不穩定的 SAAR 因素，每個月，因為這將受到任何想要增加他們的特定 OEM 或品牌的影響激勵措施可能會增加他們的市場份額或其他任何東西。

As we get in -- the bottom line is we expect in the second half of this year the retail industry to be lower than the year ago. As we get into 2017, obviously we will talk more about that in the future, but as Bob mentioned, we do expect the industry to be probably slightly down in 2017.

當我們進入時 - 底線是我們預計今年下半年零售業將低於去年同期。隨著我們進入 2017 年，顯然我們將來會更多地討論這個問題，但正如鮑勃所說，我們確實預計該行業在 2017 年可能會略有下滑。

Brian, on your question around the inventory and our incentives related to that, I go back to what we talked about at first quarter and also the Let's Chat that we had in March. We knew that we would be at higher levels of inventory as we were -- particularly in the early part of the year because of two factors. One, we had to prepare for the Super Duty launch, which we touched on, and also because of the fact that many of our plants are running at three crews.

布賴恩，關於你關於庫存和我們與之相關的激勵措施的問題，我回到我們在第一季度討論的內容以及我們在 3 月份進行的“讓我們聊天”。我們知道我們會像以前一樣處於更高的庫存水平——尤其是在今年年初，這有兩個因素。第一，我們必須為我們提到的 Super Duty 發射做準備，也是因為我們的許多工廠都在三名機組人員中運行。

And so, as a result, there will be periods where it's low absolute volume months where the inventory will be, from a days' supply level, high, but it's to support the higher-volume months of the year, particularly in the spring and the end of the year, end of the summer, and so forth. So we are comfortable with the levels that we have been at.

因此，結果是，在某些時期絕對銷量較低的月份庫存會比一天的供應水平高，但這是為了支持一年中銷量較高的月份，特別是在春季和年末、夏末等等。所以我們對我們一直處於的水平感到滿意。

The things that's kind of interesting in terms of responding to the softness, it has not been around incentives. It has been making production adjustments. Because if you look in the first half at -- you wouldn't see this, but I'm telling you this. If you looked at the wholesales that we had planned, they are higher or were higher than what we actually delivered.

在響應軟性方面有點有趣的事情，它並沒有圍繞激勵措施。它一直在進行生產調整。因為如果你看上半場——你不會看到這個，但我告訴你這個。如果您查看我們計劃的批發量，它們會高於或高於我們實際交付的量。

Because even as we saw some of the softness that we've talked about occur in the first half of the year, Joe Hinrichs and the team were making production adjustments along the way, so we ended up with lower wholesales in the half than what we had expected. That's how we primarily deal with that is just adjusting production to demand and that's what we will do in the second half, which is what Mark talked about in his comments.

因為即使我們看到我們談到的一些疲軟出現在今年上半年，Joe Hinrichs 和他的團隊也一直在進行生產調整，所以我們上半年的批發量低於我們的水平早有預料。這就是我們主要處理的方式，只是根據需求調整生產，這就是我們將在下半年做的事情，這就是馬克在他的評論中談到的。

So the incentives I think are different. The incentives are really sort of an environmental issue, if you will, across the industry. And then, for us, I think there's a piece of what I talked about earlier around the normalization in this period versus a year ago of F-150.

所以我認為激勵是不同的。如果您願意的話，激勵措施實際上是整個行業的環境問題。然後，對於我們來說，我認為我之前談到過這段時期與一年前 F-150 的正常化情況。

Okay, just a quick follow-up. When you talk about incentives, I guess a housekeeping. Are the incentives adjustment you made here just based purely on what happened in the quarter? Are you at all forward-looking into the amount of incentives that would have been either anticipated for 3Q or booked or in place on June 30, continuing into July?

好的，只是一個快速跟進。當您談論激勵措施時，我想是家務管理。您在這裡所做的激勵調整是否僅基於本季度發生的情況？您是否對預期在 3 季度或預訂或在 6 月 30 日到位並持續到 7 月的獎勵金額有任何前瞻性？

Then second, just broadly, are you seeing the SUV -- I actually mean CV market beginning to see greater incentive activity, not just the sedan market?

其次，從廣義上講，你是否看到了 SUV——我實際上是說 CV 市場開始出現更大的激勵活動，而不僅僅是轎車市場？

When you look at it overall going forward, as we said, Brian, one of the risks that we are calling out is lower pricing and higher incentives here in the US. And that's based on the softness that we are seeing in the retail market.

當你從整體上看它向前發展時，正如我們所說，布賴恩，我們呼籲的風險之一是美國這裡較低的定價和較高的激勵措施。這是基於我們在零售市場看到的疲軟。

As you look at the data across the industry, cars, utilities, and trucks, you can see, as a percent of the transaction price, all of them are going up. Cars the most because of what's happening with the segmentation. In terms of commercial vehicles, not so much. That's still relatively balanced.

當你查看整個行業、汽車、公用事業和卡車的數據時，你會發現，作為交易價格的百分比，所有這些都在上漲。汽車最多是因為細分市場正在發生的事情。就商用車而言，情況並非如此。這樣還是比較平衡的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak，RBC 資本市場。

Thanks for taking a question. First one is, Bob, you made a comment about looking for every dollar on the revenue side. So in light of a higher incentive environment, I guess one way is to just move a little bit more volume. Can you just talk about the go-forward sort of discipline on incentives in the US environment?

感謝您提出問題。第一個是鮑勃，你發表了關於在收入方面尋找每一美元的評論。因此，鑑於更高的激勵環境，我想一種方法是增加一點交易量。你能談談美國環境中激勵措施的前瞻性紀律嗎？

Thanks, Joe. We're going to stay very disciplined in matching production to demand. When you look at our approach going forward, as we mentioned, you will see some production adjustments in the second half and in the third quarter. And that's based on the fact -- our view of what we see as the retail industry going forward.

謝謝，喬。我們將在生產與需求相匹配方面保持非常嚴格的紀律。正如我們所提到的，當你審視我們未來的方法時，你會在下半年和第三季度看到一些生產調整。這是基於事實——我們對零售業未來發展的看法。

So we are just going to stay very disciplined around that, Joe.

因此，喬，我們將在這方面保持紀律嚴明。

Joe, I would just add: there are a lot of ways to get an extra dollar out of revenue and mix is a really, really important one. If you look at the Automotive segment and the year-over-year change, we picked up over $700 million of good news just from product mix with a little bit of good news in series mix and options. That's something that we are very focused on. It's been part of our strategy in North America, in Europe, in Asia Pacific; Mark touched on it.

喬，我只想補充一點：有很多方法可以從收入中獲得額外的收入，而組合是一個非常非常重要的方法。如果你看看汽車領域和同比變化，我們僅從產品組合中就獲得了超過 7 億美元的好消息，在系列組合和選項方面也有一些好消息。這是我們非常關注的事情。這是我們在北美、歐洲和亞太地區戰略的一部分；馬克觸及它。

The other thing I don't want to leave unsaid, the great work that our global data insight and analytics team is doing. We are bringing new analytical tools to the table to help the marketing sales teams be really focused and targeted in terms of where to find that extra dollar that's sitting there but maybe we are not capturing it because of lack of insight in terms of the specificity with which we can put all the tools together to get it and bring it back home. And that's exactly what that team has been helping us do, particularly in the US, but now starting to do so in Europe and China as well.

我不想說的另一件事是，我們的全球數據洞察和分析團隊正在做的出色工作。我們正在將新的分析工具帶到桌面上，以幫助營銷銷售團隊真正專注於並有針對性地確定在哪裡可以找到額外的美元，但也許我們沒有抓住它，因為缺乏對具體情況的洞察力我們可以把所有的工具放在一起，把它帶回家。這正是該團隊一直在幫助我們做的事情，尤其是在美國，但現在也開始在歐洲和中國這樣做。

I guess just following on that conversation, you're talking about the US environment that's a little bit tougher, maybe slightly down, but the guidance in the back half in North America implies something about 6.5%, as you mentioned, sort of pricing and incentive way a little bit. So I guess given what you are seeing from an industry perspective in just a little bit of a tougher environment, does that give you any pause for your breakeven analysis longer term? Or are we maybe -- am I underestimating the impact of Super Duty in the back half?

我想就在那次談話之後，你說的是美國環境有點艱難，可能略有下降，但北美後半部分的指導意味著大約 6.5%，正如你提到的那樣，定價和激勵方式一點點。因此，我想鑑於您在更艱難的環境中從行業角度所看到的情況，這是否會讓您暫停更長期的盈虧平衡分析？或者我們也許——我是否低估了 Super Duty 在後半場的影響？

Maybe you could give a better sense of what you think margins would be in the back half if you didn't have the Super Duty changeover.

如果您沒有 Super Duty 轉換，也許您可以更好地了解您認為後半部分的利潤率是多少。

I'm not going to go there in terms of giving you a view on margins. I think, clearly, they will be lower. There's no question about that, because the second half will be lower; they usually are lower in the second half. This will be a weaker-than-normal second half, so that is what's going to happen.

我不會去那裡給你一個關於利潤率的看法。我認為，很明顯，它們會更低。毫無疑問，因為下半年會更低；他們通常在下半場較低。這將是一個比正常情況更弱的下半場，所以這就是將要發生的事情。

I would just go back to 2014. If you think about 2014, North America had lower margins than it had been running at because of the launch of F-150 and they bounced back up in 2015, particularly the second half, and then early this year.

我只想回到 2014 年。如果你想想 2014 年，由於 F-150 的推出，北美的利潤率低於之前的水平，但他們在 2015 年反彈，尤其是下半年，然後是今年早些時候年。

So what we are seeing is a really big launch. It's not going to take as much volume out as those launches did because we've learned so much from them, but it's a really big launch and it's going to have an effect. It's really around all these other issues and the softening of the industry, the higher incentives. Those are the things that we are working on.

所以我們看到的是一個非常大的發布。它不會像那些發布那樣減少數量，因為我們從中學到了很多東西，但這是一個非常大的發布，它會產生影響。它真的圍繞著所有這些其他問題和行業的軟化，更高的激勵措施。這些是我們正在努力的事情。

And I would actually call them early signs of the maturation of the cycle. The structure that we have put in place in North America was designed to give us good results and good performance when things get tough and it is getting a little bit tougher. That's what we are seeing.

我實際上將它們稱為周期成熟的早期跡象。我們在北美建立的結構旨在當事情變得艱難並且變得更加艱難時為我們提供良好的結果和良好的表現。這就是我們所看到的。

But I think the structure of the business is good and, oh, by the way, remember that $1.6 billion of cost performance we talked about? A lot of that was delivered in North America. So we are keeping up, if you will, in terms of the structure of the business with what we are seeing happen. So I think we're in good shape in terms of the robustness of their structure and prepared for that eventual downturn.

但我認為業務結構很好，哦，對了，還記得我們談到的 16 億美元的性價比嗎？其中很多是在北美交付的。因此，如果您願意的話，我們將在業務結構方面跟上我們所看到的情況。因此，我認為就其結構的穩健性而言，我們處於良好狀態，並為最終的衰退做好了準備。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當·喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Thanks and good morning, everyone. You probably saw Fiat Chrysler is ending the production of all cars in the US by Q1 2017 on the grounds that they couldn't justify the use of capital for products they don't make any money on.

謝謝，大家早上好。你可能看到菲亞特克萊斯勒將在 2017 年第一季度結束美國所有汽車的生產，理由是他們無法證明將資本用於他們不賺錢的產品是合理的。

Now, while recognizing that Ford is on a completely different level of scale of passenger cars in the US vis-a-vis Sergio's house, are you at least somewhat sympathetic to what Mr. Marcchione is saying? How much money do you actually make in small and midsize cars in the US and can one make the case that, over time, Ford, too, could be carless in your US plants?

現在，雖然認識到福特在美國的乘用車規模與 Sergio 的房子完全不同，但您是否至少有點同情 Marcchione 先生所說的話？您在美國的小型和中型汽車實際賺了多少錢？有人可以證明，隨著時間的推移，福特也可以在您的美國工廠中實現無汽車生產嗎？

I think overall, as you can expect, Adam, we look at how we spend our capital very, very carefully to make sure that we are earning a good return on it. When it comes to our portfolio, we have said very clearly it's important to have a full portfolio. And cars -- in particular to adjust to any changes we see in consumer demand, in terms of the economy, in terms of the regulatory environment.

我認為總的來說，正如你所料，亞當，我們會非常、非常謹慎地審視我們如何使用我們的資本，以確保我們從中獲得良好的回報。談到我們的投資組合，我們已經非常明確地表示擁有完整的投資組合很重要。還有汽車——特別是要適應我們在經濟、監管環境方面看到的消費者需求的任何變化。

So those are just a few of the things that we look at as we are making investment decisions across our portfolios, including small vehicles.

因此，這些只是我們在對我們的投資組合（包括小型車輛）做出投資決策時所關注的一小部分。

The second question is on Ford's strategic position in small downsized engine and fuel-efficient vehicles. The emphasis on smaller, lighter, and more fuel-efficient vehicles, we know that all good auto companies with an eye on the long term have to do this type of thing. It's certainly existential, but thinking near term is this strategy -- it seems to work a lot better when oil is $100 a gallon -- or oil is $100 a barrel or gas is $4 a gallon.

第二個問題是關於福特在小型小型發動機和節油汽車方面的戰略地位。強調更小、更輕、更省油的汽車，我們知道，所有著眼於長期的優秀汽車公司都必須做這種事情。這當然是存在的，但考慮到近期是這種策略——當石油價格為每加侖 100 美元時，它似乎工作得更好——或者石油價格為每桶 100 美元，或者天然氣價格為每加侖 4 美元。

I'm just curious if you see any link between fuel prices and consumer buying preferences that could be creating some near-term headwinds to that strategy, even recognizing it's the right one longer term. Thanks.

我只是很好奇你是否看到燃料價格和消費者購買偏好之間的任何联係可能會給該策略帶來一些短期阻力，即使認識到這是長期正確的策略。謝謝。

Thanks, Adam. As usual, we have to live in today and we have to take a long-term view. But overall what we are seeing is, literally, across every segment, whether gas is $4 a gallon or whether it's $1.50 a gallon, fuel economy is still an important purchase criteria for folks because they have long memories.

謝謝，亞當。像往常一樣，我們要活在今天，也要著眼長遠。但總的來說，我們看到的是，從字面上看，在每個細分市場，無論汽油是每加侖 4 美元還是每加侖 1.50 美元，燃油經濟性仍然是人們重要的購買標準，因為他們有很長的記憶力。

And so what we are seeing in terms of the take-up of our EcoBoost engines and the take-up of our smaller displacement engines, like our 1-liter which has won international engine of the year for like five years in a row, we are seeing very, very good take-up of that. And we think going forward that is exactly the right strategy.

因此，我們在 EcoBoost 發動機和小排量發動機的採用方面所看到的情況，例如我們的 1 升發動機連續五年獲得年度國際發動機獎，我們正在看到非常非常好的接受。我們認為向前發展是完全正確的戰略。

Yes, you could have some customers on the margin that say, well, gas is low so I will purchase a bigger engine. For the most part, whatever they purchase they want good fuel economy here in the US and globally.

是的，您可能會有一些客戶說，好吧，汽油很低，所以我會購買更大的發動機。在大多數情況下，無論他們購買什麼，他們都希望在美國和全球範圍內獲得良好的燃油經濟性。

Adam, I just would add that we are a global enterprise; almost half of our volume is outside the United States. Due to taxation approaches outside the United States, the fact that oil prices are low has not really changed gas prices. So it is an extremely important consideration outside. It's an important part of what we have to do, not only here, but also in serving customer demands elsewhere in the world.

亞當，我只想補充一點，我們是一家全球性企業；我們幾乎一半的交易量來自美國以外的地區。由於美國以外的稅收方式，低油價並沒有真正改變天然氣價格。所以在外面是一個極其重要的考慮因素。這是我們必須做的事情的重要組成部分，不僅在這裡，而且在滿足世界其他地方的客戶需求方面也是如此。

Thank you, Mark and Bob. One quick one, a third one; sorry. Do you guys think autonomous cars are a little bit overhyped in the market here? That's it, thanks very much.

謝謝馬克和鮑勃。一個快速的，第三個；對不起。你們認為這裡的市場上的自動駕駛汽車有點被誇大了嗎？就是這樣，非常感謝。

Do I think they are overhyped in terms of the level?

我認為他們在水平方面被誇大了嗎？

In terms of media perception and the type of activities you are seeing from your competitors in acquiring assets and building them and the amount of press releases and CNBC time devoted to the topic. Just more of a market commentary. Just curious of your opinion, thank you.

就媒體認知和您從競爭對手那裡看到的獲取資產和建設資產的活動類型以及新聞稿的數量和 CNBC 專門討論該主題的時間而言。只是更多的市場評論。只是好奇你的意見，謝謝。

As you know, we are working very hard on autonomous vehicles. Listen, whenever there is something new and shiny and sexy I think sometimes the media does tend to write about things maybe in flourishing ways.

如您所知，我們正在努力開發自動駕駛汽車。聽著，每當有新的、閃亮的、性感的東西出現時，我認為有時媒體確實傾向於以繁榮的方式報導事物。

We're just going to stay very focused on our plan. And as you know, as a company -- there's a lot of announcements going on right now by a lot of competitors and I just want to be really clear, we are not in a race to make announcements. We are in a race to do what is right and best for our customers and best for our business, period.

我們將非常專注於我們的計劃。正如你所知，作為一家公司——現在有很多競爭對手正在發布很多公告，我只是想非常清楚，我們並不是在競相發佈公告。我們正在競相為我們的客戶和我們的業務做正確和最好的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Colin Langan, UBS.

科林蘭根，瑞銀。

Great, thanks for taking my question. It's very helpful to see the first-half versus second-half walk, but when we think about it year over year, mentioned earlier it seems like a pretty massive year-over-year deterioration. I think almost like $2 billion and I remember last year you had UAW signing bonuses in Q4.

太好了，謝謝你提出我的問題。查看上半場與下半場的步行情況非常有幫助，但當我們逐年考慮時，如前所述，這似乎是一個相當大的同比惡化。我想差不多是 20 億美元，我記得去年你在第四季度獲得了 UAW 簽約獎金。

Can you help maybe bucket on a year-over-year basis the big items that are dragging things down? Obviously, Super Duty would be one. I mean it doesn't -- you actually did take-up full-year production. I don't know how that is looking into H2.

你能不能在年復一年的基礎上幫助解決拖累事情的大項目？顯然，Super Duty 就是其中之一。我的意思是它沒有——你實際上確實進行了全年的生產。我不知道那是如何看待 H2 的。

And then commodities that you mentioned getting [worse in] the first half, is that actually going to be a drag year over year? What are the big items that are causing this?

然後你提到的商品在上半年變得 [更糟]，這實際上會比去年同期拖累嗎？造成這種情況的大項目是什麼？

I guess the first thing I just want to correct you on, there's no down, because if there was a down we're not baking it in our guidance. Our guidance is equal to or improved on what we did last year, so our expectation and our commitment is that is not what's going to happen.

我想我只想糾正你的第一件事是，沒有下降，因為如果有下降，我們不會在我們的指導中烘烤它。我們的指導等於或改進了我們去年所做的，因此我們的期望和承諾是不會發生的事情。

Now we have risks that we have to mitigate, which is what we talked about throughout the call, but our commitment is that we will, as we did in the first half, we will find ways to improve. So that is not the plan; that's not where we would expect to end up or hope to end up.

現在我們面臨著必須降低的風險，這是我們在整個電話會議中談到的內容，但我們的承諾是，我們將像上半年所做的那樣，找到改進的方法。所以這不是計劃；那不是我們期望或希望結束的地方。

But to your question, Colin, what you will see overall, particularly in the second half, you will see a bigger-than-normal cost increase. And that will also be something that you will see for the full year.

但對於你的問題，科林，你會看到總體上，特別是在下半年，你會看到比正常情況下更大的成本增長。這也將是你將在全年看到的東西。

We had great performance on a year-over-year basis in the first half. Some of that is because it was a relatively quiet product period for us, if you will, overall globally. But when we get into the second half we have the Super Duty, we've got the Continental. We have some of the launches in North America that will take place in China.

上半年，我們的業績同比表現出色。部分原因是，如果你願意的話，在全球範圍內，這對我們來說是一個相對平靜的產品時期。但是當我們進入下半場時，我們有 Super Duty，我們有 Continental。我們在北美有一些發布會將在中國舉行。

But very importantly, and we will talk more about this when we get to investor day, that was one of the bars on that waterfall chart which was around product investment. We have been seeing an increase in product investment from Ford over the last number of years actually. As we got bigger, we expanded the portfolio, invested more in technologies. We went into new markets. We added capacity, particularly in emerging markets.

但非常重要的是，當我們到達投資者日時，我們將更多地討論這一點，這是圍繞產品投資的瀑布圖上的一個條形圖。實際上，在過去幾年中，我們一直看到福特對產品的投資有所增加。隨著我們規模的擴大，我們擴大了產品組合，加大了對技術的投資。我們進入了新市場。我們增加了產能，尤其是在新興市場。

Going forward, we're going to be completely replacing the C platform. We're going to be completely replacing the C/D platform. We are investing heavily in electrification. Adam's point around autonomous vehicles, that's underway as we speak. There's regulatory requirements that we have to meet, which bring with it added investment as well.

展望未來，我們將完全取代 C 平台。我們將完全取代 C/D 平台。我們正在大力投資電氣化。亞當關於自動駕駛汽車的觀點，就在我們說話的時候正在進行中。我們必須滿足監管要求，這也帶來了額外的投資。

So you will see an increase in both capital spending and engineering, and you see some of that even in the second half relative to the first half because what we're showing you is an increase that is higher than normal. Normally if we see that happen, it's even higher than normal, and as we go into next year that will be a factor. So you will see higher cost overall in the year versus a year ago that will largely occur in the second half of the year.

所以你會看到資本支出和工程支出都有所增加，你甚至會在下半年看到其中一些相對於上半年的增長，因為我們向你展示的是高於正常水平的增長。通常情況下，如果我們看到這種情況發生，它甚至會高於正常水平，並且隨著我們進入明年，這將成為一個因素。因此，與一年前相比，今年總體成本會更高，這主要發生在下半年。

But we don't expect to be down by the time we get to the end of the year. That's the risk, but our commitment is to offset that.

但我們預計到年底時不會下降。這就是風險，但我們的承諾是抵消這一風險。

Just one other thing. The other thing that is affecting us half to half is, as I mentioned earlier in the year from some of our fleet sales, particularly rental car sales, they were very frontloaded because the rental companies wanted to buy at the beginning of the model year. So I think it's about -- half to half, it's about 170,000-ish less wholesales, if you will, because of the fleet.

只是另一件事。影響我們一半到一半的另一件事是，正如我在今年早些時候提到的我們的一些車隊銷售，特別是租車銷售，他們非常提前，因為租賃公司想在車型年開始時購買。所以我認為它大約 - 一半到一半，如果你願意的話，批發量減少了大約 170,000，因為艦隊。

Got it. Kind of related, you mentioned in the first half there was $1.6 billion in costs to offset headwinds. What are the major headwinds, just so I'm clear? Is it really pricing and FX issues? Are those the issues? It seemed like they actually came in better in the first half. (multiple speakers)

知道了。有點相關，你在上半年提到有 16 億美元的成本來抵消逆風。我很清楚，主要的不利因素是什麼？真的是定價和外匯問題嗎？這些是問題嗎？看起來他們實際上在上半場表現得更好。 （多個揚聲器）

If you look at that slide that shows the full-year outlook and then shows the arrows up and down by region, most of those -- slide 29 -- most of those issues were actually in the first half as well. The incentives in the US; the industry in the US on the retail side was weaker than what we had expected; the external issues in Middle East and Africa; the pricing in Asia Pacific in China, we talked about that specifically in the quarter; the weaker exchange; the auction values -- all of that was in the first half. It will flow through into the second half.

如果您查看顯示全年展望的幻燈片，然後按地區顯示向上和向下箭頭，其中大部分 - 幻燈片 29 - 其中大部分問題實際上也出現在上半年。美國的激勵措施；美國零售業的表現弱於我們的預期；中東和非洲的外部問題；中國在亞太地區的定價，我們在本季度專門討論過；較弱的交易所；拍賣價值——所有這些都是在上半年。它將流入下半場。

We offset it in the first. We are committed to offsetting it in the second along with Brexit issues, which are unique to the second half. So that's what we were talking about and conveying.

我們首先抵消它。我們致力於在下半年與英國退歐問題一起抵消它，這是下半年獨有的。這就是我們正在談論和傳達的內容。

Got it, and just one last question. On slide 13 there's that $1 billion-ish of incentive. I remember last quarter there was a big chunk related to the F-150 sort of catch up and it was around I think $500 million. Is that an issue again in that big number? And is that (multiple speakers)?

知道了，還有最後一個問題。在幻燈片 13 上有 10 億美元左右的獎勵。我記得上個季度有很大一部分與 F-150 的追趕有關，我認為大約是 5 億美元。這麼大的數字又是一個問題嗎？那是（多個揚聲器）嗎？

No, that was more of a stock accrual effect in the first quarter. I think there is maybe a little bit of that in the second quarter, but nothing like what it was in the first quarter. It's more normal, if you will.

不，這更像是第一季度的股票應計效應。我認為第二季度可能會有一點，但與第一季度完全不同。如果你願意的話，這更正常。

Okay. All right, thank you so much.

好的。好的，非常感謝。

John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

約翰·墨菲，美銀美林。

Good morning, guys. Just a follow-up sort of on the pricing and incentive discussion in the US. It sounds like the environment is getting a bit tougher, but I was just wondering if you could demarcate or parse it out via cars and trucks.

早上好傢伙。只是對美國定價和激勵討論的後續討論。聽起來環境變得有點艱難，但我只是想知道你是否可以通過汽車和卡車來劃分或解析它。

And given the Cap Ute (capacity utilization) levels on CUVs and trucks are very high in the plant level and inventory is, in particularly, high, it just seems curious that there would be real pressure on pricing there. I can understand the car side, but just trying to understand where you're seeing this in the model mix as well as why you think this is coming in at this time.

考慮到 CUV 和卡車的 Cap Ute（產能利用率）水平在工廠水平上非常高，而且庫存特別高，似乎很奇怪那裡的定價會有真正的壓力。我可以理解汽車方面，但只是想了解您在模型組合中看到的位置以及為什麼您認為此時會出現這種情況。

Well, we've seen it across all the sectors. It hasn't been unique to any particular sector. As Mark mentioned, it has been particularly prevalent in cars because -- I can't remember who used the term, but car recession. I think that's a good way of thinking about it actually. We have seen that and that has had an impact in that segment.

好吧，我們已經在所有部門看到了它。它並不是任何特定部門所獨有的。正如馬克提到的，它在汽車中特別普遍，因為——我不記得是誰用過這個詞，但汽車衰退。我認為這實際上是一種很好的思考方式。我們已經看到了這一點，並且已經對該領域產生了影響。

But, frankly, it's been across the board. It's just been a slow, very modest, increasing level of incentives across the industry that's affecting the industry. So I wouldn't call out any particular segment, frankly.

但是，坦率地說，這是全面的。這只是影響整個行業的緩慢、非常適度、不斷增加的激勵水平。所以坦率地說，我不會說出任何特定的部分。

Okay. Then just a second question, Bob. You alluded to the Super Duty having a lower contribution margin. Is that really just around the launch and the early days and, as you get a few years in, you think it might have a similar contribution margin as the old Super Duty? Or is there something structural that's going on with the truck and the content in it that would provide --?

好的。然後是第二個問題，鮑勃。你提到 Super Duty 的邊際貢獻較低。這真的只是在發布和早期階段，隨著你進入幾年，你認為它可能具有與舊的 Super Duty 相似的邊際收益嗎？還是卡車和其中的內容會提供一些結構性的東西——？

No, it's not structural. Your question is spot on. We have cost reduced the Super Duty for 19 years, if you will. Obviously, we did some things. There were some moderate changes along the way, powertrains and so forth. It's not like we didn't do anything, but we did -- but we haven't done a ground-up and this is what this is.

不，這不是結構性的。你的問題很到位。如果您願意，我們已經將超級關稅的成本降低了 19 年。顯然，我們做了一些事情。一路上有一些適度的變化，動力總成等等。這並不是說我們什麼都沒做，而是我們做了——但我們還沒有從頭開始，這就是事實。

If you think about it, almost all the parts are going to be new or carry across from the F-150, so we're going to get a scale benefit because of the strategy that we are deploying. But you're right; what will happen once we get into production, we will start to benefit from cost reductions on the new parts. But not only will Super Duty benefit, so will F-150 because of the carry-across commonality between the two.

如果您考慮一下，幾乎所有部件都將是新的或從 F-150 繼承而來，因此由於我們正在部署的戰略，我們將獲得規模效益。但你是對的；一旦我們投入生產，將會發生什麼，我們將開始受益於新零件的成本降低。但不僅 Super Duty 將從中受益，F-150 也將受益，因為兩者之間的交叉交叉。

Just the flipside of that, John, just speaking about the revenue for a moment. In this segment, in the full-sized pickup segment, people pay -- our customers pay for capability. We talked about that when we launched the F-150 and we've seen that across the board in terms of our ATPs, in terms of our lowest levels of incentives versus the competition. People pay for capability.

另一方面，約翰，只談一下收入。在這個細分市場中，在全尺寸皮卡細分市場中，人們付錢——我們的客戶為能力買單。我們在推出 F-150 時談到了這一點，並且我們已經在我們的 ATP 方面全面看到了這一點，在我們與競爭對手的最低激勵水平方面。人們為能力付費。

And when you look at the investments that we've made in the new Super Duty, because it is going to be the most capable, we think that is going to pay benefits on the revenue side of it. And as Bob mentioned earlier, we invested in this platform for a cycle, not just a freshening, in terms of capability, meeting fuel economy requirements, etc.

當您查看我們在新 Super Duty 中所做的投資時，因為它將是最有能力的，我們認為這將在收入方面帶來好處。正如鮑勃之前提到的，我們在這個平台上投資了一個週期，而不僅僅是更新，在能力、滿足燃油經濟性要求等方面。

We took the long view on this. We've made the investment and I think it will pay benefits for us over the next good number of years.

我們對此採取了長遠的眼光。我們已經進行了投資，我認為它將在未來幾年為我們帶來收益。

That's incredibly helpful. Then just lastly, and I know you guys very much do care about shareholder returns and the stock price, so I don't mean to -- this is an interesting question.

這非常有幫助。最後，我知道你們非常關心股東回報和股價，所以我不是故意的——這是一個有趣的問題。

As you look at all the things that you have to deal with fundamentally in the business and all the issues that you are facing -- and opportunities, which there's a lot of good stuff out there -- do you table your view on what's happening with the stock in the short term and just look at this and say, we've got to execute through the cycle and on the other side of the cycle we will ultimately get paid for this? And you kind of put that view of the volatility in the stock aside for now?

當您審視您在業務中必須從根本上處理的所有事情以及您面臨的所有問題 - 以及機會，那裡有很多好東西 - 你是否對正在發生的事情發表了看法？短期內的股票，看看這個然後說，我們必須執行整個週期，而在周期的另一端，我們最終會為此獲得報酬嗎？你暫時擱置了對股票波動的看法？

I'm just curious, because the stock is having some wild swings here and I'm just curious how you are thinking about it. Do you react to that or you just say we've got to keep executing; we will get through the other side of the cycle after we go through a downturn and the stock will be rewarded at that point for it?

我只是很好奇，因為股票在這裡有一些劇烈的波動，我只是很好奇你是怎麼想的。您對此有何反應，還是只是說我們必須繼續執行；經歷低迷期後，我們將度過週期的另一端，屆時股票會因此獲得回報嗎？

I think it's kind of like when you're having a bad golf game, you just kind of play through it. And I think in our case we are going to stay really focused on just delivering the business and, of course, the stock price is very important to us.

我認為這有點像當你打了一場糟糕的高爾夫比賽時，你只是通過它來打球。而且我認為在我們的案例中，我們將真正專注於交付業務，當然，股價對我們非常重要。

But, again, I get back to those four elements that we showed in one of the charts. We review that with our team every single week: how are we doing on growth, on returns, on derisking the business, and on providing rewards for our shareholders.

但是，我再次回到我們在其中一張圖表中顯示的那四個要素。我們每週都會與我們的團隊一起審查：我們在增長、回報、降低業務風險以及為股東提供回報方面做得如何。

That's very good to hear. Thank you very much.

很高興聽到這個消息。非常感謝。

Itay Michaeli, Citi.

Itay Michaeli，花旗銀行。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just on North America, as we look at the changing business climate that you described, I'm curious on a normalized year basis, clearly after you get through Super Duty and seasonality in the second half of the year, how you're thinking about margins there relative -- I think the prior communication was that 8% to 10% range in North America. Just curious on the latest thoughts on that range.

十分感謝。大家，早安。就北美而言，當我們審視你所描述的不斷變化的商業環境時，我很好奇以標準化的年度為基礎，很明顯，在你度過了下半年的超級關稅和季節性之後，你是如何考慮的那裡的利潤率相對——我認為之前的溝通是北美的 8% 到 10% 的範圍。只是好奇關於那個範圍的最新想法。

That has not changed, Itay. That continues to remain our goal is 8% to 10%.

這沒有改變，Itay。這仍然是我們的目標，即 8% 到 10%。

Okay. And then if we think about the competitive environment, does it all change your plans or potentially could change your plans to increase capacity in North America around 2018 or is that plan still intact?

好的。然後，如果我們考慮競爭環境，這是否會改變您的計劃，或者可能會改變您在 2018 年左右增加北美產能的計劃，或者該計劃是否仍然完好無損？

Well, our plans remain intact, as we've talked about. Part of -- as we look forward and as we've talked about, we're going to be introducing four new SUVs into segments that we don't compete in today. And as you know, we've made the announcement to build a plant down in Mexico for small vehicles. So we are pretty comfortable with the plans that we have laid out and we've talked about before.

好吧，正如我們所說，我們的計劃保持不變。一部分——正如我們期待和討論的那樣，我們將向我們今天不參與競爭的細分市場推出四款新 SUV。如您所知，我們已經宣布要在墨西哥建造小型車輛工廠。因此，我們對我們制定的計劃和之前討論過的計劃感到非常滿意。

Great. Then just lastly, are most of the second-half mitigating factors in North America? And if so, what are the puts and takes in the Asia Pacific outlook for the Company in the second half of the year?

偉大的。最後，北美下半年的大部分緩解因素是什麼？如果是，下半年公司在亞太地區的前景如何？

Again, if you look at the slide, I'd say in terms of magnitude, yes, North America, but we also highlighted the risk in Middle East and Africa. Although a small region for us, we had expected a profit. We're a loss for the first half, so if you think about that for the full year, that's an offset that we have to create.

再一次，如果你看幻燈片，我想說的是規模，是的，北美，但我們也強調了中東和非洲的風險。儘管對我們來說是一個小區域，但我們曾期望獲得利潤。上半年我們是虧損的，所以如果你考慮全年的情況，那是我們必須創造的抵消。

Asia Pacific we think that we have got a plan to get us moving in a more positive direction than certainly we were for the first half. But in terms of magnitude, it's really North America. And when I say North America, I think you put Ford Credit with it because this is around US -- auction values in the US, so it's largely around the US actually.

亞太地區我們認為我們已經制定了一個計劃，可以讓我們朝著比上半年更積極的方向前進。但就規模而言，它確實是北美。當我說北美時，我認為你把福特信貸放在一起是因為它在美國附近——美國的拍賣價值，所以它實際上主要在美國附近。

Just, again, a little bit more color on what we are doing in China in terms of what you asked. Clearly, as Bob mentioned, we had some sales operation issues which the team has gotten a hold of. But as you look at the launches, the product launches in the second half of the year -- and as I said, most of these will benefit fully in the fourth quarter -- it's not only the launches that I mentioned, the Taurus with the 1.5-liter engine and Mondeo and Kuga -- but we are going to have improved availability of our 2-liter version of the Edge.

只是，再一次，根據你的要求，對我們在中國所做的事情多一點顏色。顯然，正如 Bob 所提到的，我們有一些團隊已經掌握的銷售運營問題。但是當你看發佈時，產品將在下半年發布——正如我所說，其中大部分將在第四季度充分受益——不僅僅是我提到的發布，Taurus 和1.5 升發動機以及蒙迪歐和 Kuga——但我們將提高 2 升版 Edge 的可用性。

The Edge has done extremely well in China. People are really clamoring for the 2-liter engine. We've broken through some capacity constraints recently, so we will have better availability of that that plays into the growing segment. We'll have better availability of Explorer.

Edge在中國的表現非常出色。人們真的在呼喚 2 升發動機。我們最近突破了一些容量限制，因此我們將更好地利用那些可以進入不斷增長的細分市場的產品。我們將擁有更好的 Explorer 可用性。

But also, on the cost side, Bob mentioned we faced competitive pressure in the C segment and that -- a lot of that is from the domestic competitors. We have had an intensive focus on our Escort and our EcoSport in terms of attacking material costs. And you will see that play out during the second half of this year.

而且，在成本方面，鮑勃提到我們在 C 細分市場面臨競爭壓力，其中很多來自國內競爭對手。在降低材料成本方面，我們非常關注我們的 Escort 和 EcoSport。你會在今年下半年看到這一切。

That's very helpful. Thanks, Mark and Bob.

這很有幫助。謝謝，馬克和鮑勃。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

瑞安布林克曼，摩根大通。

Good morning, thanks for taking my question. So question is on Asia Pacific outside of China. If you look at slide 19, still extremely strong margin in China. I think the implication here is that the consolidated operations outside of China lost maybe a little over $300 million in 2Q or upwards of $1.2 billion annualized.

早上好，謝謝你提出我的問題。所以問題是關於中國以外的亞太地區。如果你看幻燈片 19，中國的利潤率仍然非常高。我認為這意味著中國境外的合併業務在第二季度可能損失了 3 億美元多一點，或者年化損失超過 12 億美元。

Firstly, what drove that softer performance? And then how should we think about it moving forward? Should the losses start to mitigate as Australia manufacturing winds down?

首先，是什麼推動了這種疲軟的表現？然後我們應該如何考慮它向前發展？隨著澳大利亞製造業的停滯，損失是否應該開始減輕？

Then I can't imagine all of that relates to Australia obviously, so are there additional actions that you need to be taking or are already starting to take, maybe in India or Thailand, for example?

那麼我無法想像所有這些顯然都與澳大利亞有關，那麼您是否需要採取或已經開始採取其他行動，例如在印度或泰國？

Let me take that one. When you look at the loss for the quarter, the JVs generated the $295 million, but there are other -- I've mentioned this every quarter. There are other parts of total China. You've got Lincoln, you've got the Ford imports, you've also got engineering that Ford is incurring that the JVs payback through royalties once the vehicles are in production. So those sort of sit in a central pot, if you will, in Ford of China.

讓我拿那個。當您查看本季度的虧損時，合資企業產生了 2.95 億美元，但還有其他 - 我每個季度都提到過這一點。還有全中國的其他地方。你有林肯，你有福特進口，你也有福特正在承擔的工程，一旦車輛投入生產，合資企業就會通過特許權使用費進行回報。因此，如果您願意，可以將它們放在中國福特汽車的中央鍋中。

Actually, when you look at overall what happened on a year-over-year basis, most of the decline actually was in China. Some of that was at the JVs. We talked about the 28% decline, but it was the other factors as well.

實際上，當你從整體上看同比發生的情況時，大部分下降實際上發生在中國。其中一些是在合資企業。我們談到了 28% 的下降，但這也是其他因素。

When you look at the balance of Asia Pacific, on a year-over-year basis it was largely -- the Indian operations was a factor, but that was very much in line with our plan. In fact, when you think about what happened versus what we expected, the operations outside of China in the second quarter did a bit better than what we had expected. It really was around China.

當您查看亞太地區的餘額時，與去年同期相比，它主要是 - 印度業務是一個因素，但這非常符合我們的計劃。事實上，當你考慮發生的事情與我們的預期時，第二季度中國以外的業務表現比我們預期的要好一些。它真的在中國各地。

Okay, that's very helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Bigger China; not just the JVs, but bigger China.

大中國；不僅僅是合資企業，還有更大的中國。

Then just last question on Brexit again, thanks for the color that you did provide. I think might be a little harder, likely too soon to say, but at this point is there any reason to reevaluate or need to reevaluate the 3% to 5% pretax margin that was indicated by I think 2020 at the 2014 analyst day, or more recently, some of the discussion about 6% to 8% margin longer term in the region?

然後又是關於英國脫歐的最後一個問題，感謝您提供的顏色。我認為可能有點難，現在說起來可能還為時過早，但此時是否有任何理由重新評估或需要重新評估我認為 2020 年在 2014 年分析師日表明的 3% 至 5% 的稅前利潤率，或者最近，一些關於該地區長期利潤率 6% 到 8% 的討論？

We are still shooting for those, Ryan. Clearly, as I said, as a team you know us; we're going to look at what the world throws at us and we're going to act decisively on it. So we are going to have to see how Brexit plays out, but it will just provide more motivation for the team in terms of keeping us competitive and also at the same time putting us on that path to sustained profitability as we think about Brexit.

我們仍在為那些拍攝，瑞安。很明顯，正如我所說，作為一個團隊，你了解我們；我們將審視世界拋給我們的東西，然後我們將對此採取果斷行動。因此，我們將不得不看看英國退歐的結果如何，但這只會為團隊提供更多動力，讓我們保持競爭力，同時讓我們在考慮英國退歐時走上持續盈利的道路。

This is going to play out. It's not only an issue of seeing how this plays out and what the trading relationships are going to -- how they are going to play out, but it's also the timing. Because clearly, once they start the clock on the Brexit negotiations, it's about two years so we have to look at all that.

這將發揮作用。這不僅是一個問題，看它如何發揮作用以及貿易關係將如何發展——它們將如何發揮作用，而且也是時機問題。因為很明顯，一旦他們開始英國脫歐談判，大約需要兩年時間，所以我們必須考慮所有這些。

We are scenario planning, but we are accounting for Brexit in the results that we have shown here in the outlook and we will talk about that at the investor day as well. We will put that all in there.

我們正在進行情景規劃，但我們在展望中顯示的結果中考慮了英國退歐，我們也會在投資者日討論這一點。我們會把它全部放在那裡。

Okay, thanks a lot.

好的，非常感謝。

Pat Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

Pat Archambault，高盛。

Thanks for squeezing me in. Just I guess a follow-up on China. It sounds like you are expecting a sequential improvement and let's just go through that. Is that both year on year as well as sequentially from first half to second half?

謝謝你把我擠進來。我猜是關於中國的後續行動。聽起來您似乎在期待一個連續的改進，讓我們來看看吧。這是同比還是從上半年到下半年的順序？

Then, as we think about the list of items, there has to be a pretty big impact from the non-recurrence of that downtime at that one large plant. You talked about product. And then on slide 20 it does seem like while pricing is still negative from April to June, your slide makes the point that it has moderated. Just wanted to see if we were tabulating all the items and thinking about that correctly.

然後，當我們考慮項目清單時，那家大型工廠不再發生停機肯定會產生相當大的影響。你談到了產品。然後在幻燈片 20 上，雖然從 4 月到 6 月定價仍然為負，但你的幻燈片表明它已經緩和了。只是想看看我們是否將所有項目製成表格並正確考慮。

I think what you should expect to see in the second half I think we will have a very strong fourth quarter, as we did last year, in China. Some of that is just seasonal as you start to build to prepare for the Chinese New Year the following -- early in the year, but also it's timed to the product launches.

我認為你應該期待在下半年看到什麼我認為我們將有一個非常強勁的第四季度，就像我們去年在中國所做的那樣。其中一些只是季節性的，因為您開始為接下來的農曆新年做準備——年初，但它也與產品發布同步。

So I think when you think about the profitability in the second half from Asia Pacific, which -- and of course, China still drives much of that, I would think it to be concentrated largely in the fourth quarter.

所以我認為，當你考慮亞太地區下半年的盈利能力時，當然，中國仍然在很大程度上推動盈利能力，我認為它主要集中在第四季度。

And the items that we listed off, those are the ones, right? Basically product, pricing being bad but not as bad, and the lack of downtime I guess?

我們列出的項目就是這些，對嗎？基本上是產品，定價不好但還不錯，而且我猜沒有停機時間？

We do think that the negative pricing we have seen year to date will start to moderate. And that's in part because of the comp from last year is a bit different in the second half than it was in the first half.

我們確實認為，我們今年迄今看到的負定價將開始緩和。這部分是因為去年的比賽在下半年與上半年有所不同。

Got you. Then just my last question is Brazil and South America, specifically. It is an unusual thing to ask a question about upside risk and potential improvement, but you cited improving fundamentals in Argentina. And then also Brazil, strangely enough, has seen a second derivative improvement across most of its macro metrics and currency has started to appreciate.

明白了那麼我的最後一個問題是巴西和南美洲，特別是。問一個關於上行風險和潛在改善的問題是一件不尋常的事情，但你提到了阿根廷改善的基本面。奇怪的是，巴西的大部分宏觀指標的二階衍生品也有所改善，貨幣開始升值。

So maybe just your perspective on how that plays into your outlook there. Maybe it's a little bit too early to think about changing things.

所以也許只是你對它如何影響你的看法的看法。也許現在考慮改變事情還為時過早。

I think it's a little bit too early because, despite some of the things that you mentioned, we have not seen the improvement in the SAAR factors and in the sales, as you saw from the data. That really has to ultimately start playing itself out in consumer confidence and into industry sales, and we're not seeing that yet.

我認為現在有點太早了，因為儘管你提到了一些事情，但我們還沒有看到 SAAR 因素和銷售額的改善，正如你從數據中看到的那樣。這真的必須最終開始在消費者信心和行業銷售中發揮作用，而我們還沒有看到這一點。

Got it. Even from a currency side you are -- I guess it's just too nascent I suppose?

知道了。即使從貨幣方面來看，你也是——我想這太新生了？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, all right. That's all I had for you guys, thanks.

好的，好的。這就是我對你們的全部，謝謝。

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

Rod Lache，德意志銀行。

A couple things on North America and one on China. Just first, at a very high level, could you just give us what your perspective is on what is driving the moderation in the North American retail market versus the run rate we were seeing in the back half?

幾件關於北美的事情和一件關於中國的事情。首先，在非常高的水平上，您能否告訴我們您對推動北美零售市場放緩與我們在後半部分看到的運行率的看法？

And then, more generally, there was a thematic view that automakers would be more price disciplined as demand moderates given all the capacity changes and structural changes in the market. But obviously here we are looking at a 3% price decline year over year with very slight moderation in volume and I know part of that for you was the F-Series.

然後，更普遍地，有一種主題觀點認為，鑑於市場的所有產能變化和結構變化，隨著需求放緩，汽車製造商將更加嚴格地控制價格。但很明顯，我們看到價格同比下降 3%，銷量略有下降，我知道 F 系列對你來說是其中的一部分。

But how should we be thinking about the trajectory of price deflation that you would be expecting in a North American plateau? And can you give us a little bit more color on what you expect for pricing in the back half?

但是，我們應該如何考慮北美高原預期的價格通縮軌跡？你能給我們更多關於你對後半部分定價的期望的顏色嗎？

Let me take the first half of the question on what's driving the moderation. I think it's a number of different things. Obviously, Rod, you've seen, as I mentioned earlier, that pent-up demand go away so now it's really about replacement value. In addition, you've seen used-car prices go down and when used car prices go down obviously there's an impact on the new car market.

讓我回答問題的前半部分，是什麼推動了節制。我認為這是很多不同的事情。顯然，羅德，正如我之前提到的，你已經看到，被壓抑的需求消失了，所以現在它真的是關於重置價值。此外，你已經看到二手車價格下降，當二手車價格下降時，顯然會對新車市場產生影響。

Then when you look at some of the elements that are driving the retail business: there's been extended payments, there's been higher leasing, the low interest rates. That plays itself out over time and you can see our strategy around that, particularly in some of the leasing numbers that Bob showed earlier. So I think those are some of the factors.

然後，當您查看推動零售業務發展的一些因素時：付款時間延長、租賃費用增加、利率低。隨著時間的推移，它會發揮作用，你可以看到我們圍繞它的策略，特別是在 Bob 之前展示的一些租賃數字中。所以我認為這些是一些因素。

Probably there might be a factor of the noise that's going on right now around -- here in the US around elections and what that means, because there's lots of things being said that could impact it as well.

可能現在周圍正在發生的噪音可能是一個因素——在美國這裡圍繞選舉以及這意味著什麼，因為有很多事情也可能影響它。

Rod, on the question of price discipline, that's a very, very good question. I actually think the industry continues to be quite disciplined, so I think we need to put in context what's happened.

羅德，關於價格紀律的問題，這是一個非常非常好的問題。實際上，我認為這個行業仍然非常有紀律，所以我認為我們需要將發生的事情放在背景中。

I think we are in transition. If you go back and think about what's happened since 2009, the industry has grown way in excess of GDP over that period of time and so we've all benefited from very, very robust growth of the industry. It is now plateauing and I think the industry and all the players in the industry, we have to kind of pivot. We have to transition and I think that's what's occurring.

我認為我們正在轉型。如果你回頭想想自 2009 年以來發生的事情，那段時間該行業的增長遠遠超過 GDP，因此我們都從該行業非常非常強勁的增長中受益。它現在處於平穩狀態，我認為這個行業和這個行業的所有參與者，我們必須有點支點。我們必須過渡，我認為這就是正在發生的事情。

The reason I'm encouraged by -- encouraged to think that that will occur successfully is the fact that not only us, but everyone, all the big players, are very, very focused on margins. They know that's important. They know that's what counts. They are focused on that and I really believe that, ultimately, that will be the driver of decisions around how aggressively people go after a pie that isn't growing, frankly, anymore.

我感到鼓舞的原因 - 認為這會成功發生的原因是不僅我們，而且每個人，所有大公司，都非常非常關注利潤率。他們知道這很重要。他們知道這才是最重要的。他們專注於這一點，我真的相信，最終，這將成為決定人們如何積極追求不再增長的餡餅的決定因素，坦率地說，不再。

The other thing that's probably different than it has been over the last two or three years is the yen. The yen has started to strengthen from the levels it had reached. I think it to about a [JPY120] level. It's been JPY100, JPY103, JPY105. That certainly puts some constraints on the Japanese participants in the market in terms of maybe some of the benefits and the windfalls of the weaker yen that they were deploying that just isn't there anymore.

與過去兩三年不同的另一件事可能是日元。日元已從其達到的水平開始走強。我認為它大約是 [JPY120] 的水平。分別是 100 日元、103 日元、105 日元。這無疑給市場中的日本參與者帶來了一些限制，因為他們正在部署的日元貶值帶來的一些好處和意外收穫可能已經不復存在了。

So I think it will probably take some time, but I think that the discipline that we have seen will stick and we will get used to the new environment.

所以我認為這可能需要一些時間，但我認為我們所看到的紀律會堅持下去，我們會適應新環境。

That will play out over time?

這會隨著時間的推移發揮作用嗎？

It will play out, yes. It's not going to happen overnight, obviously, here.

它會發揮作用，是的。顯然，這不會在一夜之間發生。

Can you give us any color on expectations for pricing in the back half? And then on China, the pricing was effectively down 6%, even with the 500 basis point decline in the taxes, which is effectively another price cut for consumers. I know the comps get easier in the back half of 2016 versus the back half of 2015, but is there any concern on your part that as you look out to 2017, if some of the tax -- the temporary tax benefits moderate that actually, for automakers, the pricing environment becomes more challenging?

你能告訴我們對後半部分定價的預期嗎？然後在中國，定價實際上下降了 6%，即使稅收下降了 500 個基點，這實際上是對消費者的又一次降價。我知道 2016 年下半年與 2015 年下半年相比，補償變得更容易，但您是否擔心，當您展望 2017 年時，如果一些稅收 - 臨時稅收優惠實際上緩和了，對於汽車製造商來說，定價環境變得更具挑戰性？

When you look at on the moderation, clearly at the end of the year the purchase tax reduction is expected to expire. It's an interesting question because if you look at the Chinese SAAR in the second quarter -- I think it was like 26.5 million units. It's incredibly strong.

當你看緩和時，很明顯，購置稅減免預計將在年底到期。這是一個有趣的問題，因為如果你看看第二季度的中國 SAAR——我認為它大約是 2650 萬台。它非常強大。

Part of it is could you argue are people rushing to buy cars with six months to go on the purchase tax incentive reduction? I think at a SAAR at that level -- and I couch that because the official Chinese numbers coming out from the government are not available. This is based on the manufacturers getting together and sharing their data. But based on that we do think that it's a sign of the strength of the market.

部分原因是您是否可以爭辯說人們是否在六個月內急於購買汽車以進行購置稅減免？我認為在那個級別的 SAAR——我這麼說是因為沒有來自政府的官方中國數字。這是基於製造商聚集在一起並共享他們的數據。但基於此，我們確實認為這是市場實力的標誌。

What that will mean for pricing next year? I don't have a hard and fast thought on that, but I am encouraged by the level of sales that we are seeing well before the purchase tax incentive ends.

這對明年的定價意味著什麼？我對此沒有明確的想法，但我對在購置稅激勵措施結束之前看到的銷售水平感到鼓舞。

Rod, on your question about what are we expecting for the balance of the year here, I would just say we are expecting the continued trend that we've seen, which has been very slow, modest increase. And so we are kind of baking that in to our outlook, but we will see what happens.

羅德，關於你對今年餘下時間的期望的問題，我只想說我們期待我們所看到的持續趨勢，這種趨勢非常緩慢，溫和增長。因此，我們有點將其融入我們的前景，但我們會看到會發生什麼。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

James Albertine, Consumer Edge Research.

James Albertine，消費者邊緣研究。

Thank you and good morning. Two quick ones: one on the credit side of the business and the other just to go back to the UK for a moment.

謝謝你，早上好。兩個快速的：一個在業務的信貸方面，另一個只是暫時回到英國。

First, on credit. Looking at your average FICO score, you are not in the business it seems of focusing too much on subprime. But from an observational perspective and to tie together with what you said about retail sales earlier being somewhat softer, what are you seeing, if anything, that would suggest some weakness coming from the subprime side of the market? And is that a leading indicator that could suggest further tightening as we think about credit for the back half of this year and into next year?

第一，信用。查看您的平均 FICO 分數，您似乎並沒有過分關注次級貸款。但從觀察的角度來看，結合你之前所說的零售銷售略有疲軟，你看到了什麼，如果有的話，這表明市場的次級抵押貸款方面有些疲軟？當我們考慮今年下半年和明年的信貸時，這是一個可能表明進一步收緊的領先指標嗎？

Let me just give a high-level response and then I will ask Marion Harris, our CFO, to add any color or texture.

讓我給出一個高級別的回應，然後我會請我們的首席財務官 Marion Harris 添加任何顏色或紋理。

As we show on slide 24, and I think this is our point of view from just looking across the industry, there continue to be articles about subprime problems or a big increase in subprime. We just don't see that. It certainly hasn't been the case for us in terms of our high-risk mix. As you can see on slide 24, it's been absolutely constant, over quite a number of years actually; not just the periods that we are showing here.

正如我們在幻燈片 24 上展示的那樣，我認為這是我們從整個行業來看的觀點，繼續有關於次級抵押貸款問題或次級抵押貸款大幅增加的文章。我們只是看不到。就我們的高風險組合而言，我們的情況肯定不是這樣。正如您在幻燈片 24 中看到的那樣，它一直保持不變，實際上已經持續了很多年；不僅僅是我們在這裡展示的時期。

So that certainly has not been something that is a factor in terms of our own results and our own business. And I think it's fair to say that we haven't seen a particular boomlet or problem across the industry, but maybe you could add some texture on that.

因此，就我們自己的結果和我們自己的業務而言，這肯定不是一個因素。而且我認為可以公平地說，我們還沒有看到整個行業的特定繁榮或問題，但也許你可以在上面添加一些紋理。

That's right, Bob. We're not seeing any leading indicators that suggest that there's any kind of particular problem emerging. And you said it earlier: the increased credit losses we are seeing are coming from some of the delinquencies that are moving towards default. But, again, it's off of a very, very low base that still remains around historic lows on the delinquency side.

沒錯，鮑勃。我們沒有看到任何領先指標表明正在出現任何類型的特定問題。你之前說過：我們看到的信貸損失增加是由於一些違約行為正在走向違約。但是，再次，它脫離了一個非常非常低的基數，在拖欠率方面仍然保持在歷史低點附近。

As the subprime goes. We have seen subprime mix within new vehicle sales be very constant for a long period time. In fact, it was down just a bit in the second quarter, but not anything meaningful. We are not seeing anything troubling from our portfolio; we buy a full credit spectrum.

隨著次貸的發展。我們已經看到新車銷售中的次級貸款組合在很長一段時間內都非常穩定。事實上，它在第二季度只是下降了一點，但沒有任何意義。我們沒有從我們的投資組合中看到任何麻煩；我們購買了完整的信用範圍。

Okay, I appreciate that. Thank you so much.

好的，我很感激。太感謝了。

Then on the UK, understanding that July and August are somewhat lower seasonal months when you look at unit sales every year and then September there tends to be a big registration changeover period that drives unit sales in that respect, I'm wondering are there any indicators this far into the third quarter that would allow us to take a view on September. In other words, are maybe orders up or down or flat? How should we think about that, if at all? Maybe it's just a false indicator.

然後在英國，了解 7 月和 8 月是季節性較低的月份，當你每年查看單位銷售時，然後 9 月往往會有一個很大的註冊轉換期，在這方面推動單位銷售，我想知道有沒有到目前為止，第三季度的指標將使我們能夠對 9 月份發表看法。換句話說，訂單可能是上漲還是下跌還是持平？如果有的話，我們應該如何考慮？也許這只是一個錯誤的指標。

I think you're right; obviously, because of the plate change, September is an important month. But, clearly, we got to be cautious about looking at a specific month, even if it is a plate change month, to understand what's going on in the marketplace.

我想你是正確的;顯然，因為板塊的變化，九月是一個重要的月份。但是，很明顯，我們必須謹慎看待特定的月份，即使是換版月，也要了解市場上發生的事情。

I think maybe it's still too early to tell. As we mentioned, we are seeing some less footfall traffic in our dealers, for example, in the London area or in Scotland, but in other parts of the country it's a little bit different. So I think it's going to play out over the next number of months, but our view is that the industry is going to come down to a certain degree.

我想也許現在下結論還為時過早。正如我們所提到的，我們看到經銷商的客流量有所減少，例如，在倫敦地區或蘇格蘭，但在該國其他地區，情況有所不同。所以我認為它會在接下來的幾個月內發揮作用，但我們認為該行業將下降到一定程度。

Understood. Thank you again for taking the questions and best of luck.

明白了。再次感謝您提出問題，祝您好運。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

伊曼紐爾羅斯納，里昂證券。

Good morning, everybody. So just one additional question on China and it's regarding your strategy. Obviously a lot of big shifts in industry dynamics going on there. And then if we look at your performance in the quarter, it seems like this amount of -- share loss and you explained that well, but the margins are still obviously incredibly high, at least by global automaking standards.

大家早上好。所以還有一個關於中國的問題，它是關於你的戰略的。顯然，那裡正在發生許多行業動態的重大變化。然後，如果我們看一下您在本季度的表現，似乎有這麼大的份額損失，您解釋得很好，但利潤率顯然仍然非常高，至少按照全球汽車製造標準來看是這樣。

So is part of your strategy there or even your whole strategy, to essentially refocus on the profitable part of the market in the context of very deep competition and pricing pressure on other parts? And, therefore, basically maximizing margin, even if that means some -- losing some share?

那麼，在競爭非常激烈和其他部分面臨定價壓力的背景下，您的戰略的一部分甚至是整個戰略是否從根本上重新關注市場的盈利部分？因此，基本上最大化利潤，即使這意味著一些 - 失去一些份額？

As you know, Emmanuel, our first and foremost focus is on our operating margins and not necessarily just market share. But I think in China we have worked hard in putting out a full family of vehicles across the spectrum there.

如你所知，伊曼紐爾，我們首要關注的是我們的營業利潤率，而不僅僅是市場份額。但我認為在中國，我們一直在努力推出全系列的汽車。

Our opportunity going forward is in the areas where we underperformed this past quarter, like in the C segment and the small SUVs, is to work on our cost, work on the product appeal, and really leverage, as you mentioned, the strength that we see in midsized cars, large cars, and SUVs, and as I mentioned earlier, some of the better availability of some of those vehicles. So it's really working both of those elements.

我們未來的機會是在上個季度我們表現不佳的領域，比如在 C 級和小型 SUV 中，我們將努力降低成本，提高產品吸引力，並真正利用，正如你提到的，我們的實力在中型汽車、大型汽車和 SUV 中看到，正如我之前提到的，其中一些車輛的可用性更好。所以這兩個元素都有效。

Okay, that's helpful. Then I guess just more broadly, looking at 2017, you were, importantly, cautioning against using the second half as sort of your new run rate, which obviously makes a lot of sense with what you have going on with the Super Duty. But then looking just -- beyond just the Super Duty factor, you are essentially talking about potentially larger risks or downside from Brexit, as well as a US auto industry that may be modestly down, pricing pressure both in China and sort of in the US.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我想更廣泛地說，看看 2017 年，重要的是，你警告不要將下半年用作你的新運行率，這顯然對你在 Super Duty 上所做的事情很有意義。但然後看看 - 除了超級關稅因素之外，你實際上是在談論英國脫歐帶來的潛在更大風險或下行風險，以及美國汽車業可能適度下滑，中國和美國的定價壓力.

What are the big pieces or big factors that looking into next year should be more positive and essentially argue that 2017 would be a better year?

展望明年應該更加積極並從根本上證明 2017 年會更好的一年有哪些大塊或大因素？

I will just mention a number of them and Mark can chime in, and we will talk obviously more about 2017 and beyond in the middle of September. But, first of all, we will get out of some of the one-time, unique issues that we saw in the second half, and maybe to some extent in the first half.

我只會提到其中的一些，Mark 可以插話，我們將在 9 月中旬更多地討論 2017 年及以後的內容。但是，首先，我們將擺脫我們在下半場看到的一些一次性的、獨特的問題，也許在某種程度上是在上半年。

But you will also see -- I think it does appear, and there's articles that are being written about it, that the emerging market downturn perhaps globally is beginning to bottom out. I talked about the fact that Russia is already improving in terms of our own portfolio. There was a question earlier around South America.

但你也會看到——我認為它確實出現了，並且正在寫關於它的文章，新興市場的低迷可能在全球範圍內開始觸底。我談到了一個事實，即俄羅斯已經在我們自己的投資組合方面有所改善。早些時候有一個關於南美洲的問題。

Our view -- early view anyway -- is that there could be very, very, very small levels of growth there next year. Nothing to write home about, but it would be great to see a positive number with no brackets around it. And so that would be perhaps the beginning of the turn there and decline of the increased losses. So that's going to help.

我們的觀點——無論如何是早期觀點——明年可能會有非常、非常、非常小的增長水平。沒有什麼值得大書特書的，但是看到一個沒有括號的正數會很棒。因此，這可能是轉折的開始和損失增加的下降。所以這會有所幫助。

We're going to have, again, as we always do, a lot of product launches. And I think going back to the earlier question around the portfolio, we really are focusing our investments very specifically to where we can make money. I think that will be a phenomenon that will be even in sharper focus going ahead and I think that will benefit, for example, the four new SUVs that we talked about globally. Those are in the sweet spot of where consumers are going. Those are higher-margin products that will start to help us as we move ahead.

與往常一樣，我們將再次推出大量產品。而且我認為回到之前關於投資組合的問題，我們確實將我們的投資非常具體地集中在我們可以賺錢的地方。我認為這將是一種現象，未來將更加受到關注，我認為這將有利於我們在全球範圍內討論的四款新 SUV。這些都是消費者去往的最佳地點。那些利潤率較高的產品將在我們前進的過程中開始幫助我們。

And the cost, we're going to really be -- we will see cost increases, I will call them that are healthy to support the growing business and certainly to be a leader in all these emerging opportunities ahead. But, other than that, we are going to be, as we have been, very focused on efficiencies and driving nonessential costs out of the business. We did that very successfully in the first half; we need to do that in the second and we're going to do that going forward as well.

而成本，我們真的會 - 我們會看到成本增加，我會稱它們是健康的，以支持不斷增長的業務，並且肯定會成為未來所有這些新興機會的領導者。但是，除此之外，我們將一如既往地非常關注效率，並將不必要的成本從業務中剔除。上半場我們做得非常成功；我們需要在第二個階段做到這一點，我們也將在未來做到這一點。

The only other thing I will add is to Bob's point on focusing on where we make money and taking appropriate actions. Next year we are closing our facility, our assembly facility in Australia at the end of this year and that will pay benefits for Australia's performance next year.

我要補充的唯一一件事是鮑勃關於關注我們賺錢的地方並採取適當行動的觀點。明年我們將在今年年底關閉我們在澳大利亞的工廠和組裝工廠，這將為明年澳大利亞的業績帶來收益。

We are exiting -- it's not big, but we are exiting the markets of China and Indonesia. I'm sorry, Indonesia and Japan. And that will pay benefits, so we are really starting to get very focused on this.

我們正在退出——規模不大，但我們正在退出中國和印度尼西亞市場。對不起，印度尼西亞和日本。這將帶來好處，所以我們真的開始非常關注這一點。

Perfect, thank you.

完美，謝謝。

There are no more questions at this time. I hand the call back over to Ted Cannis for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將電話轉回給 Ted Cannis 以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you very much, everybody. You can find our information on the website as described before. Thanks very much.

非常感謝大家。如前所述，您可以在網站上找到我們的信息。非常感謝。

This is the end of today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。