福特汽車 (F) 2014 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ford fourth quarter earnings conference call.

美好的一天，女士們先生們，歡迎參加福特第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Chantelle and I will be your facilitator for today's call.

我叫 Chantelle，我將擔任今天電話會議的協調人。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. George Sharp, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給今天的東道主投資者關係執行董事喬治·夏普先生。

Please proceed, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chantelle, and good morning.

謝謝你，尚特爾，早安。

Welcome to everyone joining us today either by phone or by webcast.

歡迎今天透過電話或網路廣播加入我們的所有人。

On behalf of the entire Ford management team, I would like to thank you for taking the time to be with us this morning so that we can provide you with additional details of our fourth quarter and full year 2014 financial results.

我謹代表整個福特管理團隊感謝您今天早上抽出時間與我們在一起，以便我們能夠向您提供 2014 年第四季度和全年財務業績的更多詳細信息。

Presenting today are Mark Fields, our President and CEO, and Bob Shanks, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天出席會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長馬克·菲爾茲 (Mark Fields) 和我們的財務長鮑勃·尚克斯 (Bob Shanks)。

Also participating are Stuart Rowley, Corporate Controller; Neil Schloss, Corporate Treasurer; Paul Andonian, Director of Accounting; and Mike Seneski, Ford Credit CFO.

參與其中的還有公司財務總監 Stuart Rowley；尼爾‧施洛斯 (Neil Schloss)，公司財務長； Paul Andonian，會計總監；和福特信貸財務長 Mike Seneski。

Now copies of this morning's press release and the presentation slides are available on Ford's investor and media website.

現在，今天上午的新聞稿和簡報幻燈片的副本可以在福特的投資者和媒體網站上找到。

The financial results discussed today are preliminary and include references to non-GAAP financial measures.

今天討論的財務結果是初步的，其中包括對非公認會計準則財務指標的參考。

Any non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled to the U.S. GAAP equivalent in the appendix of the slide deck and final data will be included in our Form 10-K.

任何非 GAAP 財務指標均與幻燈片附錄中的美國 GAAP 同等指標進行了調整，最終數據將包含在我們的 10-K 表格中。

Finally, today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for Ford's future performance.

最後，今天的演示包括一些有關我們對福特未來業績預期的前瞻性陳述。

Of course, actual results could be different.

當然，實際結果可能會有所不同。

The most significant factors that could affect actual results are summarized at the end of this presentation and, of course, are detailed in our SEC filings.

本簡報結尾總結了可能影響實際結果的最重要因素，當然，我們的 SEC 文件中也詳細介紹了這些因素。

With that, I would like to turn the presentation over to Mark.

說到這裡，我想把演講交給馬克。

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝喬治，大家早安。

Today we are going to review our fourth quarter and our full year 2014 financial results.

今天我們將回顧 2014 年第四季和全年的財務表現。

We will also update our view of the business environment for 2015 and also our guidance for the year ahead.

我們也將更新對 2015 年商業環境的看法以及對未來一年的指導。

So let's get right into the first slide.

讓我們直接進入第一張投影片。

Our results this quarter and for the full year reflect our continued focus on our ONE Ford Plan, which remains unchanged.

我們本季和全年的業績反映了我們對 ONE 福特計劃的持續關注，該計劃保持不變。

Our plan has served us well and will continue to do so going forward.

我們的計劃對我們很有幫助，並將繼續發揮作用。

We are now building on our success by accelerating the pace of progress throughout our business.

我們現在正在透過加快整個業務的進步步伐來鞏固我們的成功。

We are starting to see the full benefits and strength of ONE Ford and we intend to maximize these opportunities going forward.

我們開始看到 ONE Ford 的全部優勢和優勢，並且我們打算在未來最大限度地利用這些機會。

Here at Ford, we are passionate about product excellence and leading in innovation, and we are absolutely committed to building on our product strength today with even more new products and innovations that will deliver growth for our stakeholders and define our company going forward.

在福特，我們熱衷於卓越的產品和領先的創新，我們絕對致力於透過更多的新產品和創新來增強我們今天的產品實力，這將為我們的利益相關者帶來成長，並定義我們公司的未來。

Now let's turn to slide 2 for a look at the fourth quarter and the full year.

現在讓我們翻到投影片 2，了解第四季和全年情況。

The fourth quarter was our 22nd consecutive profitable quarter.

第四季是我們連續第 22 個獲利季度。

Automotive operating-related cash flow was positive and liquidity remains strong.

汽車業務相關現金流為正，流動性仍強勁。

Fourth quarter wholesale volume and company revenue were lower than a year ago by 2% and 5%, respectively.

第四季批發量和公司營收分別比去年同期下降2%和5%。

Looking at the business units, North America and Asia-Pacific were profitable and Ford Credit once again delivered strong results.

從業務部門來看，北美和亞太地區獲利，福特信貸再次取得強勁業績。

For the full year, the Company delivered its fifth consecutive year of pre-tax profit and positive Automotive operating-related cash flow, and the results were consistent with guidance.

全年，公司連續第五年實現稅前利潤和正汽車營運相關現金流，結果與指導一致。

North America was profitable, and we achieved a record profit in Asia-Pacific.

北美實現獲利，亞太地區實現創紀錄的利潤。

Ford Credit's profit was its highest since 2011.

福特信貸的利潤達到2011年以來的最高水準。

And while we reported losses in other business units, Europe and Middle East and Africa improved from a year ago.

雖然我們報告其他業務部門虧損，但歐洲、中東和非洲業務較一年前有所改善。

Volume was about equal to a year ago, while company revenue declined 2%.

銷量與一年前持平，而公司收入下降了 2%。

And we achieved record market share in Asia-Pacific, driven by record share in China.

在中國創紀錄份額的推動下，我們在亞太地區實現了創紀錄的市場份額。

Our global pension plans were underfunded by $9 billion at the end of 2014, which was unchanged from 2013 despite significantly lower discount rates.

截至 2014 年底，我們的全球退休金計畫資金不足 90 億美元，儘管折現率大幅降低，但這一數字與 2013 年持平。

For 2015 our Company outlook for pre-tax profit, automotive revenue, and operating margin is unchanged from our September Investor Day guidance.

對於 2015 年，我們對公司稅前利潤、汽車收入和營業利潤率的展望與 9 月份投資者日指引保持不變。

And we expect Company pre-tax profit to range from $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion, with Automotive revenue and Automotive operating margin higher than 2014, which is largely driven by our new products and capacity.

我們預計公司稅前利潤將在 85 億美元至 95 億美元之間，汽車收入和汽車營業利潤率將高於 2014 年，這主要是由我們的新產品和產能推動的。

Today we are improving our outlook for Automotive operating-related cash flow from positive to higher than 2014.

今天，我們將汽車營運相關現金流的前景從正值提高到高於 2014 年。

Before getting into the financial details, I would like to take you through some of our other achievements in 2014, which you'll see on slide 3.

在介紹財務細節之前，我想先向您介紹我們在 2014 年取得的其他一些成就，您將在投影片 3 中看到這些成就。

We launched 24 all-new or significantly refreshed products globally last year.

去年，我們在全球推出了 24 款全新或大幅更新的產品。

These included the all-new F-150, which was awarded the Truck of Texas and named the North American International Auto Show Truck of the Year earlier this month.

其中包括全新的 F-150，該車榮獲德克薩斯州卡車獎，並於本月初被評為北美國際車展年度卡車。

Deliveries and sales began in December.

12 月開始交付和銷售。

The launches also included the all-new 50th anniversary Mustang, Escort, Ka, Transit, and Lincoln MKC.

此次發布的還包括全新 50 週年紀念野馬、Escort、Ka、Transit 和林肯 MKC。

Our best-selling midsized SUV, the Ford Explorer, debuted its new look at the LA Auto Show and will be available to customers in markets around the world later this year.

我們最暢銷的中型 SUV 福特探險家 (Ford Explorer) 在洛杉磯車展上首次亮相，並將於今年稍後向全球市場的客戶提供新外觀。

We also revealed the all-new Ford Everest in Asia-Pacific.

我們也在亞太地區發布了全新福特珠穆朗瑪峰。

Ford remained the best-selling vehicle brand in the U.S. and the best-selling automaker in Canada for the fifth year in a row.

福特連續第五年成為美國最暢銷汽車品牌和加拿大最暢銷汽車製造商。

This was supported by continued strong sales of F-Series, which despite the downtime on F-150 to support the new vehicle launch, achieved U.S. truck sales leadership for the 38th straight year and U.S. vehicle sales leadership for the 33rd year in a row.

這得益於 F 系列持續強勁的銷售，儘管 F-150 因支持新車發布而停工，但 F 系列仍連續 38 年成為美國卡車銷售領先者，並連續 33 年成為美國汽車銷售領先者。

We also set U.S. sales records for Fusion and Escape.

我們也創造了 Fusion 和 Escape 的美國銷售記錄。

In Europe, we remained the number two vehicle brand -- selling vehicle brand and continue to progress our transformation plan, achieving a year-over-year share gain for the Europe 20 market for the first time since 2009.

在歐洲，我們仍然是第二大汽車品牌——銷售汽車品牌，並繼續推進我們的轉型計劃，自 2009 年以來首次實現了歐洲 20 國市場份額的同比增長。

We also closed our Genk, Belgium plant, improving our capacity utilization.

我們也關閉了比利時亨克工廠，提高了產能利用率。

Our growth in China continued with a record 1.1 million wholesales in 2014.

我們在中國的銷售量持續成長，2014 年批發量達到創紀錄的 110 萬輛。

In addition, our Changan Ford joint venture opened two new plants and we launched Lincoln in China with the first nine Lincoln dealerships which began sales of the Lincoln MKZ and MKC.

此外，我們的長安福特合資企業開設了兩家新工廠，我們在中國推出了林肯汽車，首批九家林肯經銷商開始銷售林肯MKZ和MKC。

Consistent with our plan to provide regular and growing dividends that are sustainable over an economic or business cycle, we increased our 2014 quarterly dividend by 25%.

根據我們提供在經濟或商業週期內可持續的定期且不斷增長的股息的計劃，我們將 2014 年季度股息增加了 25%。

And as you know, we announced an additional 20% increase earlier this month.

如你所知，我們本月稍早宣布額外加薪 20%。

We also completed our share repurchase program that reduced our diluted shares by about 3%.

我們也完成了股票回購計劃，使稀釋後的股票減少了約 3%。

Now I would like to turn it over to Bob who will take us through the financial results.

現在我想把它交給鮑勃，他將向我們介紹財務表現。

Bob?

鮑伯？

Thank, Mark, and good morning everyone.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。

Let's start on the top of slide 4 where you will see that fourth quarter wholesale volume was 1.6 million units; that was down 30,000 units from a year ago.

讓我們從投影片 4 的頂部開始，您將看到第四季的批發量為 160 萬台；比一年前減少了 3 萬台。

And revenue was $35.9 billion; that was down $1.7 billion.

收入為 359 億美元；減少了 17 億美元。

Pre-tax profit was $1.1 billion, excluding special items; that was $197 million lower than a year ago.

稅前利潤為 11 億美元，不包括特殊項目；比一年前減少了 1.97 億美元。

After-tax earnings per share at $0.26 were $0.06 lower.

每股稅後收益為 0.26 美元，比去年同期低 0.06 美元。

Net income attributable to Ford, including pre-tax special item charges, was $52 million.

包括稅前特殊項目費用在內，福特淨利為 5,200 萬美元。

This was $3 billion lower than a year ago, including a non-repeat of a favorable $2.1 billion special tax item that we benefited from last year.

這比一年前減少了 30 億美元，其中包括不再重複去年我們受益的 21 億美元特別稅收項目。

Earnings were $0.01 a share and that was down $0.74.

每股收益為 0.01 美元，下跌 0.74 美元。

Pre-tax special item charges were $1.2 billion in the quarter, reflecting primarily a one-time loss resulting from a change in how we account for our Venezuela operations, as well as separation-related actions in Europe and Asia-Pacific to support our transformation plans, and charges associated with the settlement of our 2016 convertible notes.

本季稅前特殊項目費用為 12 億美元，主要反映了由於我們對委內瑞拉業務的核算方式發生變化以及歐洲和亞太地區為支持我們的轉型而採取的與分拆相關的行動而導致的一次性虧損計劃以及與2016 年可轉換票據結算相關的費用。

You can find additional detail on the special items in Appendix 3.

您可以在附錄 3 中找到有關特殊項目的更多詳細資訊。

Automotive operating-related cash flow was $500 million and Automotive gross cash was $21.7 billion, exceeding debt by $7.9 billion.

汽車業務營運相關現金流為 5 億美元，汽車總現金為 217 億美元，超過負債 79 億美元。

In the full year our operating effective tax rate, which isn't shown, was 35%.

全年我們的營運有效稅率（未顯示）為 35%。

For 2015 we expect the rate, which excludes the profits of our unconsolidated subsidiaries, to be about equal to our 2014 rate, assuming extension of U.S. research credit legislation in the fourth quarter.

假設美國研究信貸立法在第四季度得到延長，我們預計 2015 年的利率（不包括我們未合併子公司的利潤）將大致等於 2014 年的利率。

Full year vehicle wholesales were about equal to a year ago, while Company revenue decreased by 2%.

全年汽車批發量與去年同期持平，而公司營收下降了 2%。

Full year pre-tax operating profit, excluding special items, was $6.3 billion and, as Mark said, in line with guidance.

不包括特殊項目的全年稅前營業利潤為 63 億美元，正如馬克所說，符合指引。

The result was a decline of $2.3 billion from a year ago and net income was $3.2 billion, which was $4 billion lower than a year ago.

結果是比一年前減少了23億美元，淨利為32億美元，比一年前減少了40億美元。

As shown on slide 5, both of our sectors, Automotive and Financial Services, contributed to the Company's fourth quarter and full year pre-tax profits.

如投影片 5 所示，我們的汽車和金融服務兩個部門都為公司第四季和全年稅前利潤做出了貢獻。

Company fourth quarter and full year pre-tax profits were lower than a year ago, more than explained by Automotive.

該公司第四季和全年稅前利潤均低於去年同期，超出了汽車行業的解釋。

Compared with third quarter, Automotive was favorable while Financial Services more than explained the $60 million decline in profit.

與第三季相比，汽車業務表現良好，而金融服務業務則充分解釋了利潤下降 6,000 萬美元的原因。

The key market factors and financial metrics for Automotive business in the fourth quarter are shown on slide 6. As you can see on the far left, wholesale volume and revenue declined 2% and 5% from a year ago, respectively.

第四季汽車業務的關鍵市場因素和財務指標如幻燈片 6 所示。正如您在最左邊看到的，批發量和收入比去年同期分別下降了 2% 和 5%。

The volume decline is more than explained by North America, while the revenue decline reflects all business units.

銷售下降的原因不僅在於北美地區，而收入下降則反映了所有業務部門。

About half of the revenue decline is attributable to unfavorable exchange.

大約一半的收入下降歸因於不利的匯率。

Global industry SAAR is estimated at 90.2 million units; that was up 2% from a year ago.

全球產業SAAR估計為9,020萬台；比一年前成長了 2%。

Ford global market share is estimated at 6.9%, down 0.2 percentage points due to North America.

福特全球市佔率預估為 6.9%，因北美市場下降 0.2 個百分點。

Operating margin was 2.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from a year ago, while automotive pre-tax profit was $713 million and that was down $250 million.

營業利益率為 2.8%，較去年同期下降 0.4 個百分點，而汽車業稅前利潤為 7.13 億美元，較去年同期下降 2.5 億美元。

The decline in both metrics is more than explained by North America.

這兩個指標的下降不僅僅是由北美地區造成的。

As shown in the memo below the chart, full year volume was about equal to a year ago, while Automotive revenue was down 3%, more than explained by lower volume from consolidated operations, and unfavorable exchange with the exchange effect accounting for nearly 60% of the decline.

正如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，全年銷量與一年前大致持平，而汽車業務收入下降了 3%，這主要是由於合併業務銷量下降以及匯率不利（匯率影響佔近 60%）的下降。

Operating margin of 3.9% was down 1.5 percentage points.

營業利益率為 3.9%，下降了 1.5 個百分點。

Total Automotive pre-tax profit at $4.5 billion was down $2.4 billion.

汽車業稅前利潤總額為 45 億美元，下降了 24 億美元。

The lower results were driven by the Americas.

較低的業績是由美洲造成的。

All other business units improved.

所有其他業務部門均有所改善。

We have included full year key metrics and year-over-year variance slides for the Automotive sector and each of our business units in the appendix.

我們在附錄中包含了汽車產業和每個業務部門的全年關鍵指標和年比差異幻燈片。

As shown on slide 7, the $250 million decline in fourth quarter Automotive pre-tax profit was driven by higher costs and unfavorable exchange.

如投影片 7 所示，第四季汽車稅前利潤下降 2.5 億美元，原因是成本上升和不利的匯率。

Higher net pricing in all regions except Asia-Pacific was a partial offset, and as shown in the memo, pre-tax profit was about equal to third quarter.

除亞太地區外，所有地區較高的淨定價被部分抵消，正如備忘錄所示，稅前利潤約等於第三季。

The absolute fourth quarter pre-tax results for each of Other Automotive operations as well as other automotive are shown on slide 8. As you can see, North America and Asia-Pacific were profitable, while the other business units reported losses.

其他汽車業務以及其他汽車業務的第四季度絕對稅前業績如幻燈片 8 所示。如您所見，北美和亞太地區實現盈利，而其他業務部門則報告虧損。

On slide 9 we show the factors that contributed to the $2.4 billion decline in total Automotive full year pre-tax profit.

在投影片 9 中，我們展示了導致汽車產業全年稅前利潤總額下降 24 億美元的因素。

The decline is more than explained by higher costs including warranty, unfavorable exchange, and lower volume, including product launch effects and supplier part shortages.

下降的原因主要是成本上升（包括保固、不利的換貨）和銷售下降（包括產品發布影響和供應商零件短缺）。

Higher net pricing was a partial offset.

較高的淨定價被部分抵銷。

The absolute full year pre-tax results for each of our Automotive operations, as well as Other Automotive, are shown on slide 10.

我們每個汽車業務以及其他汽車業務的絕對全年稅前業績如幻燈片 10 所示。

As you can see, North America was profitable and Asia-Pacific delivered a record result.

正如您所看到的，北美地區實現了盈利，而亞太地區則創下了創紀錄的業績。

Middle East and Africa was about breakeven, while Europe and South America incurred large losses as expected.

中東和非洲基本上實現損益平衡，而歐洲和南美洲則如預期般出現了巨額虧損。

Now we will look at each of the regions within the Automotive sector, starting on slide 11 with North America.

現在我們將著眼於汽車產業的每個地區，從幻燈片 11 的北美開始。

North America fourth quarter wholesale volume and revenue were down 5% to 6% from a year ago.

北美第四季批發量和營收年減5%至6%。

While North America continued to benefit from robust industry sales, our strong product lineup, continued discipline in matching production with demand, and a lean cost structure, our fourth quarter results were affected adversely by the lower volume.

雖然北美繼續受益於強勁的行業銷售、強大的產品陣容、生產與需求匹配的持續紀律以及精益的成本結構，但我們第四季度的業績受到銷量下降的不利影響。

This reflects lower market share and lower dealer stock increases than a year ago, offset partially by higher industry sales including the U.S. SAAR of 17.2 million units, 1.2 million units higher than a year ago.

這反映出市場佔有率和經銷商庫存增幅較去年同期下降，但部分被較高的行業銷量（包括美國 SAAR 銷量 1,720 萬輛，較去年同期增加 120 萬輛）所抵消。

Our U.S. market share deteriorated 1.1 percentage points to 14.3% and that was largely retail related.

我們的美國市佔率下降了 1.1 個百分點，降至 14.3%，這主要與零售相關。

This primarily reflects a lower F-150 share as we continued to balance share with transaction prices and stocks during the transition to the all-new F-150.

這主要反映了 F-150 份額的下降，因為我們在向全新 F-150 過渡期間繼續透過交易價格和庫存來平衡份額。

Shares were also lower for several other products at the end of their product cycles as we transitioned to the new products launched either in the fourth quarter of last year or early this year.

隨著我們轉向去年第四季或今年年初推出的新產品，其他幾種產品在產品週期結束時的股價也較低。

As shown in appendix 8, our U.S. retail market share of the retail industry was 12.8%.

如附錄8所示，我們在美國零售業的零售市佔率為12.8%。

This was down 0.9 percentage points from a year ago, mainly reflecting the factors I already cited.

這比一年前下降了0.9個百分點，主要反映了我已經提到的因素。

The decline in North America's revenue is explained by the lower volume.

北美地區收入下降的原因是銷售下降。

North America operating margin was 7.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last year, and pre-tax profit was $1.5 billion, down $252 million.

北美營運利潤率為7.4%，較去年下降0.8個百分點，稅前利潤為15億美元，減少2.52億美元。

As shown in the memo below the chart, all full year metrics declined from a year ago.

如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，所有全年指標均較上年同期下降。

The change in financial metrics is more than explained by lower volume and higher warranty costs, including recalls.

財務指標的變化可以用銷售減少和保固成本（包括召回）增加來解釋。

Operating margin was 8.4%, which was slightly better than our guidance.

營業利益率為 8.4%，略優於我們的指導。

On slide 12 we show the factors contributing to North America's lower fourth quarter pre-tax profit.

在投影片 12 中，我們展示了導致北美第四季稅前利潤較低的因素。

The decline is more than explained by the impact of new product launches in the quarter on volume and cost.

本季新產品推出對銷售和成本的影響足以解釋這一下降。

Higher net pricing, including for new products, and lower warranty costs were partial offsets.

更高的淨定價（包括新產品）和更低的保固成本部分抵消。

As shown in the memo, pre-tax profit was higher than third quarter, more than explained by lower warranty costs and favorable market factors.

如備忘錄所示，稅前利潤高於第三季度，這主要是由於保固成本降低和有利的市場因素所致。

Higher structural costs, including the effect of new product launches, was a partial offset.

較高的結構成本，包括新產品推出的影響，部分抵銷。

Now let's turn to slide 13 and review South America, where we are continuing to execute our strategy of expanding our product lineup, including replacing legacy products with global ONE Ford offerings.

現在讓我們轉向第 13 張幻燈片回顧南美洲，我們將繼續執行擴大產品陣容的策略，包括用全球 ONE 福特產品替換傳統產品。

We are also continuing to manage the effects of slowing GDP growth, lower industry volumes in our larger markets, weaker currencies, high inflation, as well as policy uncertainty in some countries.

我們也持續應對 GDP 成長放緩、較大市場工業規模下降、貨幣疲軟、高通膨以及一些國家政策不確定性的影響。

In the fourth quarter, wholesale volume and revenue decreased from a year ago by 2% and 9%, respectively.

第四季批發量和營收分別年減2%和9%。

The lower volume is more than explained by an 800,000 unit decline from last year's SAAR of 6.1 million units, reflecting primarily the impacted import restrictions in Argentina and the weaker economy in Brazil.

銷量下降的原因是與去年的 610 萬輛 SAAR 相比減少了 80 萬輛，這主要反映了阿根廷進口限制的影響和巴西經濟疲軟。

South America market share at 9.4% was up 0.9 percentage points, reflecting primarily the new Ka, which was awarded the most sought after car of the year award in Brazil from leading magazine Auto Esporte.

南美市佔率為 9.4%，上升了 0.9 個百分點，這主要體現在新款 Ka 榮獲領先雜誌《Auto Esporte》頒發的巴西年度最受追捧汽車獎。

Focus also contributed to the share improvement.

焦點也促進了份額的提高。

The revenue decline is more than explained by weaker currencies and unfavorable volume and mix with higher net pricing as a partial offset.

收入下降的主要原因是貨幣疲軟和成交量不利，以及較高的淨定價作為部分抵消。

Operating margin was negative 7.6%.

營業利益率為負 7.6%。

This was down 2.9 percentage points from a year ago and pre-tax loss was $187 million, a deterioration of $61 million.

這比一年前下降了 2.9 個百分點，稅前虧損為 1.87 億美元，惡化了 6,100 萬美元。

As shown in the memo below the chart, all full year metrics deteriorated from a year ago, driven by unfavorable changes in external factors.

正如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，由於外部因素的不利變化，所有全年指標均較上年同期惡化。

The full year loss includes $426 million of adverse balance sheet exchange effects related primarily to the devaluation of the Venezuela bolivar in the first quarter.

全年虧損包括 4.26 億美元的不利資產負債表匯率影響，主要與第一季委內瑞拉玻利瓦爾貶值有關。

On slide 14 we show the factors contributing to the decline in South America's fourth quarter pre-tax results.

在投影片 14 中，我們展示了導致南美洲第四季稅前業績下滑的因素。

Higher warranty costs, including the field service action, more than explained the deterioration compared with both the prior year and third quarter.

與去年和第三季相比，更高的保固成本（包括現場服務行動）足以解釋情況的惡化。

The adverse effects in the quarter of weaker currencies and high local inflation were nearly offset by higher net pricing.

本季貨幣疲軟和當地通膨高企的不利影響幾乎被較高的淨定價所抵消。

Also note that the share growth from new products offset the industry decline.

另請注意，新產品的份額成長抵消了行業下降。

All right, let's now turn to Europe, beginning on slide 15, where we continue to implement our transformation plan focused on product, brand, and cost.

好吧，現在讓我們轉向歐洲，從幻燈片 15 開始，我們繼續實施專注於產品、品牌和成本的轉型計劃。

Europe's wholesale volume improved 5% from a year ago while revenue declined 2%.

歐洲批發量年增 5%，而收入下降 2%。

The higher volume is more than explained by a 500,000 unit increase in Europe 20 SAAR to 15.1 million units and a lower dealer stock reduction compared with a year ago.

與去年同期相比，歐洲 20 SAAR 銷量增加了 50 萬輛，達到 1,510 萬輛，而且經銷商庫存減少幅度也較小，這足以解釋銷量的增加。

The focus on product and brand saw continued progress in the quarter, with launch of the new Focus and all-new Mondeo.

隨著新福克斯和全新蒙迪歐的推出，本季對產品和品牌的關注繼續取得進展。

Our Europe 20 market share improved 0.2 percentage points to 7.6%, driven by a 2.8 point improvement in our commercial vehicle share to 11.7%, reflecting the success of our full line of new transit vehicles and continued strong performance of the Ranger compact pickup.

我們的歐洲20 市佔率提高了0.2 個百分點，達到7.6%，這得益於我們的商用車份額提高了2.8 個百分點，達到11.7%，這反映出我們全系列新型交通車輛的成功以及Ranger 緊湊型皮卡的持續強勁表現。

The decrease in Europe's revenue is more than explained by unfavorable exchange.

歐洲收入下降的原因不僅是不利的匯率。

Europe's operating margin was negative 6.5%, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points from a year ago, and pre-tax loss was $443 million, an $86 million improvement.

歐洲的營業利潤率為負6.5%，比去年同期提高了1.1個百分點，稅前虧損為4.43億美元，比去年同期提高了8,600萬美元。

As shown in the memo below the chart, all full year metrics improved from a year ago.

正如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，所有全年指標均較一年前有所改善。

Slide 16 shows the factors that contributed to the improvement in Europe's fourth quarter pre-tax results.

投影片 16 顯示了歐洲第四季稅前業績改善的因素。

The improvement is more than explained by favorable market factors offset partially by Russia.

這種改善的部分原因是有利的市場因素被俄羅斯部分抵消。

As shown in the memo below the chart, pre-tax results were about equal to third quarter despite the impact of Russia.

正如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，儘管受到俄羅斯的影響，稅前業績仍與第三季持平。

Let's now turn to slide 17 and review Middle East and Africa, where we are focused on building our distribution capability, expanding our ONE Ford product offering tailored to the needs of markets in the region, and leveraging global low-cost sourcing hubs for vehicles in this fast-growing part of the world.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 17，回顧中東和非洲，我們在這些地區的重點是建立我們的分銷能力，根據該地區市場的需求擴展我們的 ONE 福特產品系列，並利用全球低成本車輛採購中心。世界這個快速發展的地區。

Middle East and Africa's wholesale volume and revenue declined 10% and 2%, respectively.

中東和非洲的批發量和收入分別下降10%和2%。

The lower volume primarily reflects an unfavorable change in dealer stocks to align with near-term market demand.

成交量下降主要反映了經銷商庫存為適應近期市場需求而發生的不利變化。

Operating margin was negative 8.2%, 2 percentage points better than a year ago, and pre-tax loss was $82 million, $22 million better.

營業利潤率為負 8.2%，比一年前提高了 2 個百分點，稅前虧損為 8,200 萬美元，比一年前提高了 2,200 萬美元。

Higher net pricing and favorable mix more than explained the improvement.

更高的淨定價和有利的組合充分解釋了這一改善。

As shown in the memo below the chart, full year wholesale volume and revenue declined compared with a year ago, while operating margin and profits improved.

正如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，全年批發量和收入與去年同期相比有所下降，而營業利潤率和利潤則有所改善。

Let's now review Asia-Pacific on slide 18.

現在讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 18 上的亞太地區。

We are continuing our strategy in Asia-Pacific to invest for growth through both new and expanded plants, new products, and the introduction of Lincoln in China.

我們將繼續實施在亞太地區的策略，透過新建和擴建工廠、新產品以及在中國引進林肯汽車來投資成長。

As shown on the left, fourth quarter wholesale volume was up 2% compared with a year ago, while net revenue, which excludes our China JVs, declined 9%.

如左圖所示，第四季批發量較去年同期成長 2%，而淨收入（不包括我們的中國合資企業）下降 9%。

Our China wholesale volume, which isn't shown, was up 5% in the quarter.

我們的中國批發量（未顯示）本季成長了 5%。

The higher volume in the region is more than explained by higher industry volume.

該地區較高的交易量足以解釋為較高的行業交易量。

We estimate fourth quarter SAAR for the region at 40.7 million units.

我們估計該地區第四季度的年增長率為 4070 萬台。

That's up 600,000 units from a year ago.

比一年前增加了 60 萬台。

Lower market share was a partial offset.

較低的市佔率被部分抵消。

Our fourth quarter market share at 3.5% was down 0.1 percentage points from a year ago.

我們第四季的市佔率為 3.5%，比去年同期下降了 0.1 個百分點。

Our market share in China also deteriorated 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%.

我們在中國的市佔率也下降了0.1個百分點至4.3%。

This was due to a wholesale industry that was well above trend.

這是由於批發業遠高於趨勢。

Asia-Pacific's lower revenue reflects lower volume from consolidated operations and unfavorable exchange.

亞太地區收入下降反映了合併業務的銷售下降和不利的匯率。

Operating margin was 3.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago, and pre-tax profit was $95 million, down $14 million.

營業利益率為 3.6%，較上年同期下降 0.2 個百分點，稅前利潤為 9,500 萬美元，較上年同期下降 1,400 萬美元。

As shown in the memo below the chart, all full year metrics improved from the year earlier and were records.

如圖表下方的備忘錄所示，所有全年指標均較上年有所改善，並創歷史新高。

In 2014, our China joint ventures contributed $1.3 billion to pre-tax profit, reflecting our equity share of earnings after tax.

2014年，我們的中國合資企業貢獻了13億美元的稅前利潤，反映了我們在稅後收益中的股權份額。

Additional detail can be found in the appendix.

其他詳細資訊可以在附錄中找到。

The balance of results for the region primarily reflect Australia, where we are implementing our transformation plan; India, where we are investing for future growth, including the launch of two plants later this year; and unfavorable industry and economic factors in ASEAN.

該地區的業績平衡主要反映了我們正在實施轉型計劃的澳洲；印度，我們正在為未來的成長進行投資，包括今年稍後開設兩家工廠；以及東協的不利產業和經濟因素。

On slide 19, we show the factors that contributed to Asia-Pacific's lower fourth quarter pre-tax profit.

在投影片 19 中，我們展示了導致亞太地區第四季稅前利潤較低的因素。

The decline is more than explained by higher warranty costs related to a field service action.

這種下降的主要原因是與現場服務行動相關的保固成本增加。

As shown in the memo, Asia-Pacific pre-tax results improved from third quarter, more than explained by favorable volume and mix.

如備忘錄所示，亞太地區稅前業績較第三季有所改善，這主要是由有利的銷售和組合所解釋的。

All right, let's turn now on slide 20 to Ford Credit, a strategic asset and an integral part of our global growth and value creation strategy.

好吧，現在讓我們把第 20 張投影片轉向福特信貸，它是一項策略性資產，也是我們全球成長和價值創造策略不可或缺的一部分。

Ford Credit provides world-class dealer and customer financial services supported by a strong balance sheet, providing solid profits and distributions to Ford.

福特信貸在強大的資產負債表的支持下提供世界一流的經銷商和客戶金融服務，為福特提供可靠的利潤和分配。

Ford Credit's improved pre-tax profit this quarter compared with a year ago is more than explained by higher volume and favorable market valuation adjustments to derivatives included in Other.

福特信貸本季稅前利潤與去年同期相比有所改善，這主要是由於「其他」衍生性商品的交易量增加和有利的市場估值調整。

The higher volume reflects increases in consumer finance receivables and operating leases globally, as well as non-consumer finance receivables outside of North America.

數量增加反映出全球消費金融應收帳款和經營租賃以及北美以外的非消費金融應收帳款的增加。

A partial offset is lower margin, driven primarily by a one-time reserve in Europe and the runoff of higher-yielding assets originated in prior years in North America.

部分抵銷是利潤率下降，這主要是由歐洲的一次性儲備和北美前幾年產生的高收益資產的流失所推動的。

As shown in the memo, pre-tax profit was lower than third quarter, explained primarily by lower margin reflecting the Europe reserve.

如備忘錄所示，稅前利潤低於第三季度，主要是因為反映歐洲儲備的利潤率較低。

Slide 21 provides an explanation of the change in Ford Credit's full year pre-tax profit compared with 2013.

幻燈片 21 解釋了福特信貸公司全年稅前利潤與 2013 年相比的變化。

The improvement is more than explained by higher volume, driven by increases in consumer and non-consumer-financed receivables globally, as well as operating leases in North America.

全球消費者和非消費者融資應收帳款以及北美經營租賃的成長推動了銷售量的增加，足以解釋這一改善。

Partial offsets include unfavorable lease residual performance in North America resulting from lower relative auction values and lower financing margin.

部分抵銷包括北美由於相對拍賣價值較低和融資利潤率較低而導致的不利的租賃剩餘績效。

The lower financing margin primarily reflects the Europe reserve previously mentioned and lower portfolio pricing in North America.

較低的融資利潤率主要反映了前面提到的歐洲儲備和北美較低的投資組合定價。

Next on slide 22 is our automotive gross cash and operating-related cash flow.

接下來的投影片 22 是我們的汽車總現金和營運相關現金流。

Automotive gross cash at the end of the quarter was $21.7 billion, a decrease of $1.1 billion from the end of the third quarter.

本季末汽車業總現金為 217 億美元，較第三季末減少 11 億美元。

This includes the one-time unfavorable $500 million cash effect associated with the accounting change for our operations in Venezuela.

這包括與我們在委內瑞拉業務的會計變更相關的一次性不利的 5 億美元現金影響。

Automotive operating-related cash flow was positive $500 million, more than explained by profits.

汽車業務相關現金流為正 5 億美元，超出了利潤所解釋的水平。

During the quarter, debt repayments and pension contributions totaled $600 million, while dividends paid were about $500 million.

本季度，債務償還和退休金繳款總額為 6 億美元，而支付的股息約為 5 億美元。

Full year Automotive operating-related cash flow was $3.6 billion and gross cash declined $3.1 billion.

全年汽車營運相關現金流為 36 億美元，總現金減少 31 億美元。

Slide 23 shows that Automotive debt at the end of the quarter was $13.8 billion.

投影片 23 顯示本季末汽車債務為 138 億美元。

That was $1.1 billion lower than third quarter, including actions taken on our 2016 convertible notes.

這比第三季減少了 11 億美元，其中包括對 2016 年可轉換票據採取的行動。

We ended the quarter with net cash of $7.9 billion and Automotive liquidity of $32.4 billion.

本季結束時，我們的淨現金為 79 億美元，汽車流動性為 324 億美元。

Slide 24 provides an annual update on our global pension plans.

幻燈片 24 提供了我們全球退休金計畫的年度更新。

Worldwide pension expense, excluding special items, was $1 billion.

全球退休金支出（不含特殊項目）為 10 億美元。

That was $600 million lower than 2013, driven primarily by higher discount rates at year-end 2013 compared with 2012.

這比 2013 年減少了 6 億美元，主要是由於 2013 年年底折現率比 2012 年更高。

In 2014, we made $1.5 billion in cash contributions to our worldwide funded pension plans, down $3.5 billion reflecting our improved funded status.

2014 年，我們向全球資助的退休金計畫提供了 15 億美元的現金捐款，減少了 35 億美元，反映出我們的資助狀況有所改善。

In 2015, cash contributions to our funded plans are expected to be about $1.1 billion globally, most of which are mandatory.

2015 年，全球對我們資助計畫的現金捐助預計約為 11 億美元，其中大部分是強制性的。

Worldwide, our pension plans were underfunded by $9 billion at year-end; that's unchanged from year-end 2013 despite significantly lower discount rates, down 80 basis points in the U.S. and about 100 basis points in non-US markets.

截至年底，我們的退休金計劃在全球資金不足 90 億美元；儘管折現率顯著降低，美國下降了 80 個基點，非美國市場下降了約 100 個基點，但與 2013 年底相比沒有變化。

These were offset by strong asset returns, contributions, and favorable exchange.

這些被強勁的資產回報、貢獻和有利的匯率所抵消。

These results are clear evidence that our derisking strategy is working.

這些結果清楚地表明我們的去風險策略正在發揮作用。

Of the $9 billion underfunded status, about $6.5 billion, or about 70%, is associated with unfunded plans.

在 90 億美元的資金不足狀態中，約 65 億美元（約 70%）與資金不足的計畫有關。

Asset returns in 2014 for our U.S. plans were 16.4% and 15.7% for our non-US plans, reflecting fixed income gains as interest rates fell as well strong growth asset returns.

2014 年，我們美國計劃的資產回報率為 16.4%，非美國計劃的資產回報率為 15.7%，反映了利率下降帶來的固定收益收益以及強勁增長的資產回報。

We have continued to increase the mix of fixed income assets with the objective of reducing funded status volatility.

我們持續增加固定收益資產的組合，以減少資金狀況的波動。

The fixed income mix in our U.S. plans at year-end 2014 was 77% and that is up from 70% at year-end 2013.

2014 年底，我們美國計畫中的固定收益組合為 77%，高於 2013 年底的 70%。

The U.S. plans were 97% funded at year-end.

截至年底，美國計劃的資金到位率為 97%。

Slide 25 summarizes our 2014 results for our planning assumptions and key metrics compared with the plan we shared at the beginning of the year.

投影片 25 總結了 2014 年計畫假設和關鍵指標的結果，與年初分享的計畫進行了比較。

We delivered solid results last year, meeting or exceeding all financial metrics established at the beginning of the year, with the exception of total company pre-tax profit.

去年，我們取得了穩健的業績，達到或超過了年初制定的所有財務指標（公司稅前利潤總額除外）。

Despite a challenging environment, particularly in South America and Russia, and an unprecedented number of product launches, we achieved a total company pre-tax profit of $6.3 billion, which as Mark said was consistent with our most recent guidance of about $6 billion.

儘管環境充滿挑戰，特別是在南美和俄羅斯，而且產品發布數量空前，但我們的公司稅前利潤總額仍達到 63 億美元，正如馬克所說，這與我們最近約 60 億美元的指導一致。

Importantly, we also continued to generate positive Automotive operating-related cash flow.

重要的是，我們也繼續產生與汽車營運相關的正現金流。

So overall 2014 was a successful step forward in implementing our ONE Ford Plan to deliver profitable growth for all.

因此，總體而言，2014 年是我們在實施「ONE 福特計畫」以實現所有人獲利成長方面成功邁出的一步。

So this concludes our review of the financial details of our fourth quarter earnings.

我們對第四季財報財務細節的審查到此結束。

Now I would like to turn it back to Mark, who is going to take us through our outlook for the business in 2015, looking at the environment as well as our planning assumptions and key metrics.

現在我想把話題轉回給 Mark，他將帶我們回顧 2015 年的業務前景，了解環境以及我們的規劃假設和關鍵指標。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

Let's take a look at the 2015 year starting on slide 26 with our view of the business environment going forward.

讓我們從幻燈片 26 開始回顧 2015 年，並​​展望未來的商業環境。

We project global economic growth to be in the 3% range which is going to be led by U.S. and China.

我們預計全球經濟成長將在 3% 左右，其中美國和中國將引領成長。

Global industry sales are expected to grow to between 88 million and 92 million unites after estimated sales of about 88 million units in 2014.

繼 2014 年預計銷量約 8,800 萬台之後，全球產業銷量預計將成長至 8,800 萬台至 9,200 萬台。

U.S. economic growth is projected in the 3% range.

美國經濟成長率預計在 3% 左右。

Consumer sentiment is improving along with lower fuel prices, which will boost consumer spending providing support for that growth.

隨著燃料價格下降，消費者情緒正在改善，這將提振消費者支出，為經濟成長提供支持。

South America faces continued market volatility and policy uncertainty.

南美面臨持續的市場波動和政策不確定性。

A weak recovery is expected in Brazil, while Argentina and Venezuela will remain in recession.

預計巴西復甦乏力，而阿根廷和委內瑞拉仍將陷入衰退。

In Europe, growth in the euro area slowed after the first quarter of 2014, but it is projected at just above 1% in 2015.

在歐洲，歐元區經濟成長在 2014 年第一季後放緩，但預計 2015 年將略高於 1%。

In the U.K., growth is projected to remain in the 2.5% to 3% range.

英國的成長預計將保持在 2.5% 至 3% 的範圍內。

In Russia, the combination of lower oil prices, geopolitical events, and ruble depreciation will lead to a sharp decline in GDP and higher inflation.

在俄羅斯，油價下跌、地緣政治事件和盧布貶值的結合將導致GDP急劇下降和通膨上升。

In Asia-Pacific, China's economic growth is projected in the 7% to 7.5% range.

在亞太地區，中國的經濟成長預計在7%至7.5%之間。

Consumer income growth will support an increase in vehicle sales, but at a more moderate pace this year.

消費者收入的成長將支持汽車銷售的成長，但今年的成長速度將更加溫和。

And with some encouraging signs of improvement, growth in India is projected to rise above 6% in 2015, supported by a more favorable policy environment.

隨著一些令人鼓舞的改善跡象，在更有利的政策環境的支持下，印度 2015 年的經濟成長預計將升至 6% 以上。

So stepping back, despite challenges in some key markets, we do expect the global economy to grow in 2015 and be supportive of our projection for higher global industry volume this year.

因此，退一步來說，儘管一些關鍵市場面臨挑戰，但我們確實預計 2015 年全球經濟將成長，並支持我們對今年全球工業總量成長的預測。

On slide 27, we summarize our 2015 outlook for our Automotive sector and Ford Credit.

在投影片 27 中，我們總結了 2015 年汽車產業和福特信貸的展望。

We expect North America to be strongly profitable at a level higher than 2014 with an operating margin of 8% to 9%.

我們預計北美地區的獲利能力將高於 2014 年，營業利潤率為 8% 至 9%。

This outlook includes higher market share and net pricing, reflecting the impact of launching seven all new or significantly refreshed products, as well as the effect of the record 16 launches in 2014, many of which occurred late in the year.

這一前景包括更高的市場份額和淨定價，反映了推出七種全新或大幅更新產品的影響，以及 2014 年創紀錄的 16 種產品推出的影響，其中許多是在今年稍後推出的。

Keep in mind, the F-150 changeover and downtime at our Kansas City plant will impact the first quarter.

請記住，我們堪薩斯城工廠的 F-150 更換和停機將影響第一季。

In South America, pre-tax results are expected to be substantially improved from 2014, but still a loss.

在南美洲，稅前業績預計較2014年大幅改善，但仍處於虧損狀態。

This outlook reflects the continuation of difficult macroeconomic conditions with industry volume about equal to 2014.

這一前景反映出宏觀經濟情勢依然嚴峻，產業總量與 2014 年持平。

We expect higher market share in 2015 as a result of new product introductions, including the all-new Ka.

我們預計，由於包括全新 Ka 在內的新產品的推出，2015 年的市佔率將會更高。

We also expect higher net pricing, in part due to new products, but also to recover at least in part the unfavorable effects of weaker currencies and high local inflation.

我們也預期淨定價將上升，部分原因是新產品的推出，但也至少部分彌補了貨幣疲軟和當地高通膨的不利影響。

Finally, our South American results will not include the operating results of our Venezuela operations, including any impact of currency devaluations.

最後，我們的南美業績將不包括我們委內瑞拉業務的經營業績，包括貨幣貶值的任何影響。

Moving on to Europe, pre-tax results are expected to improve from 2014 but still be a loss.

轉向歐洲，稅前業績預計較 2014 年有所改善，但仍處於虧損狀態。

This outlook reflects higher market share, volume, and net pricing in the Europe 20 markets despite intense competition across the region as well as weak economic growth in the euro area.

這一前景反映了歐洲 20 國市場更高的市場份額、銷售和淨定價，儘管該地區競爭激烈且歐元區經濟成長疲軟。

This is updated from our September Investor Day guidance of a loss of about $250 million and that is largely due to uncertainty around conditions in Russia as well as higher pension expense in 2015 as a result of even lower discount rates.

這是根據我們 9 月投資者日指引更新的，該指引顯示虧損約 2.5 億美元，這主要是由於俄羅斯情況的不確定性以及 2015 年折現率更低導致退休金支出增加。

Middle East and Africa is expected to deliver a loss somewhat larger than 2014 as we invest for future growth.

由於我們為未來成長進行投資，預計中東和非洲的虧損將略大於 2014 年。

And in Asia-Pacific we expect wholesale volume, market share, and pre-tax profit to be higher than 2014 as we continue to introduce new products and bring online new capacity.

在亞太地區，隨著我們不斷推出新產品並帶來線上新產能，我們預計批發量、市佔率和稅前利潤將高於 2014 年。

Our Automotive net interest expense is expected to be equal to or higher than 2014.

我們的汽車淨利息支出預計將等於或高於 2014 年。

And, finally, Ford Credit continues to implement its growth plan and expects pre-tax profit to be equal to or higher than 2014.

最後，福特信貸繼續實施其成長計劃，預計稅前利潤將等於或高於 2014 年。

This outlook reflects year-end managed receivables in the range of $123 billion to $128 billion and managed leverage to continue in the range of 8 to 9 to 1 and distributions of about $250 million.

這一前景反映了年底管理的應收帳款在 1,230 億美元至 1,280 億美元之間，管理槓桿率繼續在 8 比 9 比 1 的範圍內，分配金額約為 2.5 億美元。

So moving on, let's look at the expected calendarization of total company 2015 pre-tax results.

接下來，讓我們來看看公司 2015 年稅前總業績的預期日曆。

Slide 28 shows directionally the calendarization of our profits in 2014 will not be consistent with our typical historical trend.

投影片 28 定向顯示我們 2014 年利潤的日曆化將與我們典型的歷史趨勢不一致。

In North America, the all-new F-150 changeover and downtime at the Kansas City plant will affect first quarter results.

在北美，堪薩斯市工廠的全新 F-150 更換和停機將影響第一季業績。

We also will incur costs and lost volume in the first half of the year related to our seven 2015 product launches, including the Edge and Explorer, and we expect to see the benefit of these launches in the second half of 2015.

今年上半年，我們也將因 2015 年推出的 7 款產品（包括 Edge 和 Explorer）而產生成本和銷售損失，我們預計將在 2015 年下半年看到這些產品推出的好處。

In Asia-Pacific, we are leveraging Ford's global product portfolio to introduce 18 new vehicles in 2015.

在亞太地區，我們將利用福特的全球產品組合，在 2015 年推出 18 款新車。

This will result in lower first-half results as we continue to invest in four new plants that will bring new capacity online for the second half of this year.

這將導致上半年業績下降，因為我們繼續投資四家新工廠，這些工廠將在今年下半年上線新產能。

So now let's take a look at the Total Company planning assumptions and key metrics for 2015, which is shown on slide 29.

現在讓我們來看看 2015 年公司總體規劃假設和關鍵指標，如投影片 29 所示。

For 2015, we now expect U.S. industry volume to range from 17 million to 17.5 million units; Europe 20 markets to range from 14.8 million to 15.3 million units; and China to range from 24.5 million to 26.5 million units.

2015 年，我們預計美國工業產量將在 1,700 萬至 1,750 萬台之間；歐洲 20 個市場的銷售範圍為 1,480 萬至 1,530 萬台；中國的保有量在2450萬到2650萬之間。

In terms of our financial metrics, we expect Automotive revenue and operating margin to be higher than 2014; Automotive operating-related cash flow to be higher than 2014.

就我們的財務指標而言，我們預期汽車收入和營業利潤率將高於 2014 年；汽車業務相關現金流將高於 2014 年。

And as noted earlier, this is an improvement from our September Investor Day guidance of positive.

如前所述，這比我們 9 月份投資者日的積極指引有所改善。

This also includes capital spending of about $7.5 billion.

這也包括約 75 億美元的資本支出。

Ford Credit pre-tax profit to be equal to or higher than 2014 and Company pre-tax profit to range from $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion.

福特信貸稅前利潤將等於或高於 2014 年，公司稅前利潤將在 85 億至 95 億美元之間。

So, overall, very strong growth and substantially improved financial performance are expected in 2015, driven by our investments in new products and capacity.

因此，總體而言，在我們對新產品和產能的投資的推動下，2015 年預計將出現非常強勁的成長和顯著改善的財務表現。

Closing all this out on the next slide, our priorities remain consistent and that is to accelerate the pace of progress of our ONE Ford Plan, deliver product excellence with passion, and drive innovation in every part of our business.

在下一張投影片中結束這一切，我們的優先事項保持一致，那就是加快我們的 ONE 福特計劃的進展速度，充滿激情地提供卓越的產品，並推動我們業務各個部分的創新。

And all of this underpinned with a continuing day-to-day focus on operational excellence.

所有這一切都以持續關注卓越營運為基礎。

We are committed to our long-term objectives that we shared with you and we are making progress towards them as we execute our strategic framework.

我們致力於實現與您分享的長期目標，並且在執行策略框架的過程中，我們正在朝著這些目標取得進展。

This framework is built on strong brands serving all markets with a complete family of best-in-class vehicles to lead in providing innovative mobility solutions through our Ford Smart Mobility initiatives and deliver operational excellence that is among the best in the business.

該框架建立在強大的品牌基礎上，透過一流的完整汽車系列服務所有市場，透過我們的福特智慧移動計畫提供創新的行動解決方案，並提供業內最佳的卓越營運。

Our success depends on a skilled and motivated team.

我們的成功取決於一支技術精湛、積極進取的團隊。

The Ford team is among the best in the business.

福特團隊是業界最優秀的團隊之一。

We intend to ensure that we have the right talent for a rapidly changing world and that we maintain the trust and the familiarity that allows us to rely on each other's strengths to tackle any business issue.

我們打算確保我們擁有適合快速變化的世界的人才，並保持信任和熟悉，使我們能夠依靠彼此的優勢來解決任何業務問題。

Looking ahead, the global automotive industry presents substantial growth opportunities, as well as rapid change, and we intend to take advantage of both.

展望未來，全球汽車產業呈現出巨大的成長機會和快速的變化，我們打算充分利用這兩者。

2015 is going to be a breakthrough year for Ford, driven by our unprecedented 24 global product launches in 2014 and another 15 global launches planned this year.

2015 年對福特來說將是突破性的一年，2014 年我們史無前例地在全球推出了 24 款產品，今年也計劃在全球推出 15 款產品。

This is our ONE Ford story and we are confident in its continued success.

這是我們 ONE Ford 的故事，我們對它的持續成功充滿信心。

At this point love to open it up for questions.

此時喜歡打開它來提問。

George?

喬治？

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Now we will open the lines for about a 45-minute Q&A session.

現在我們將開放約 45 分鐘的問答環節。

We will begin as usual with questions from the investment community and then we will take some questions from the media.

我們將像往常一樣從投資界的問題開始，然後我們將回答媒體的一些問題。

Now again, in order to allow for as many participants as possible within this limited timeframe, please keep your questions brief and please avoid asking more than two.

現在再次強調，為了在有限的時間內允許盡可能多的參與者，請保持您的問題簡短，並避免詢問兩個以上。

Chantelle, can we have the first question?

Chantelle，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Itay Michaeli, Citi.

（操作員指示）Itay Michaeli，花旗銀行。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Just a question on Europe.

只是關於歐洲的問題。

Was hoping we could dig a little bit more into the details around some of the incremental headwinds.

希望我們能夠更深入地了解一些增量阻力的細節。

You mentioned the pension expense in 2015.

您提到了2015年的退休金支出。

Then maybe a big picture view on what it takes now as you look at the market to return to profitability.

然後，當你審視市場時，也許會對現在需要做什麼才能恢復獲利有一個全局的看法。

Maybe an update on what you think the reasonable timetable there and what else you can do to take actions to respond to conditions there.

也許是關於您認為那裡的合理時間表的最新信息，以及您還可以採取哪些行動來應對那裡的情況。

Well, as you step back and you look at Europe, we have had some success in meaningfully improving the business in Europe.

好吧，當你退一步看看歐洲時，我們在有意義地改善歐洲業務方面取得了一些成功。

When you look at the three elements of the transformation plan -- brand, product, and cost -- on the product side we've introduced over half of the 25 products that we said we were going to introduce.

當你看一下轉型計畫的三個要素——品牌、產品和成本——在產品方面，我們已經推出了我們計劃推出的 25 種產品中的一半以上。

We increased our share as we mentioned earlier.

正如我們之前提到的，我們增加了份額。

Importantly, the investments we have made in commercial vehicles are paying off.

重要的是，我們在商用車方面的投資正在獲得回報。

We have gone from the number seven commercial vehicle market share brand to number three last year.

我們已經從商用車市佔率第七名的品牌上升到去年的第三名。

So we've made progress on product; we've made progress on brand.

所以我們在產品上取得了進展；我們在品牌方面取得了進步。

Our favorability is improving.

我們的好感度正在提升。

Our channel mix is improving and actually our channel mix of retail and fleet is healthier than the rest of the industry, about 3 points above.

我們的通路組合正在改善，實際上我們的零售和車隊通路組合比行業其他通路更健康，高出約 3 個百分點。

And we made progress on costs as we completed the restructuring actions, and as we know, that will save us ongoing between $450 million and $500 million a year.

隨著重組行動的完成，我們在成本方面取得了進展，據我們所知，這將為我們每年節省 4.5 億至 5 億美元。

As we look at the industry going forward, as Bob mentioned, we are impacted by the lower discount rates, which impact our pension costs.

正如鮑伯所提到的，當我們展望該行業的未來時，我們受到較低貼現率的影響，這會影響我們的退休金成本。

Obviously, the situation in Russia is going to continue to impact us and will be a drag on our earnings for a period of time.

顯然，俄羅斯的局勢將繼續影響我們，並將在一段時間內拖累我們的利潤。

As we look at the industry, we are seeing -- we do think that some of the impacts of lower energy costs will help the consumer, which will be positive.

當我們審視這個產業時，我們確實認為能源成本降低的一些影響將對消費者有所幫助，這將是正面的。

On the same token, we also know that there's still a lot of challenges that Europe faces.

同樣，我們也知道歐洲面臨的挑戰還很多。

And our approach going forward, we're going to continue to use our process, Itay, which is use that creating value roadmap process, continue to look at the business environment, understand any additional actions that we need to take to improve the business situation.

展望未來，我們將繼續使用我們的流程 Itay，即使用創造價值路線圖流程，繼續專注於業務環境，以了解我們需要採取的任何其他行動來改善業務狀況。

And that's what we're going to do.

這就是我們要做的。

In terms of guidance on profitability, we are going to be -- our objective is to be profitable as soon as possible using those elements that I just outlined.

在獲利能力指導方面，我們的目標是利用我剛才概述的這些要素盡快實現盈利。

That's very helpful, Mark.

這非常有幫助，馬克。

And then just two quick follow-up housekeeping questions.

然後是兩個快速的後續內務問題。

Any guidance on the year-over-year P&L impact from the Venezuela accounting change?

關於委內瑞拉會計變更對年度損益影響的任何指導嗎？

Maybe what the 2014 losses were and what the benefit could be in 2015.

也許 2014 年的損失是什麼，2015 年的收益可能是什麼。

And then maybe I missed this, but if you have a 2015 CapEx outlook that would be great.

也許我錯過了這一點，但如果您有 2015 年資本支出展望，那就太好了。

And that's all I had.

這就是我所擁有的一切。

On the last one, Mark mentioned on the next to last slide I think that our guidance is $7.5 billion.

在最後一張投影片中，馬克在倒數第二張投影片中提到，我認為我們的指引是 75 億美元。

That is just a touch up from the $7.4 billion that we saw in 2014.

這僅比 2014 年的 74 億美元增加。

On Venezuela, we are not providing -- we don't generally provide specific profitability on either markets or product lines.

在委內瑞拉，我們不提供—我們通常不提供市場或產品線的特定獲利能力。

We did lose money in Venezuela; it's been very volatile.

我們在委內瑞拉確實虧了錢；它非常不穩定。

I think that's the thing that has been the most difficult about the market in terms of financial effect.

我認為就財務影響而言，這是市場最困難的事情。

So going forward, as we explained in the 8-K, Itay, there will be no effect on the Company's results from what happens in Venezuela other than, if we can obtain cash from the authorities in Venezuela and use that cash to either omit a dividend or use that cash to purchase components that we could then ship into Venezuela to support production, then the profit or the cash flow associated with that transaction will be reflected in our results.

因此，展望未來，正如我們在 8-K、Itay 中所解釋的那樣，委內瑞拉發生的事情不會對公司的業績產生影響，除非我們可以從委內瑞拉當局獲得現金並使用該現金來忽略股息或使用該現金購買組件，然後我們可以將其運送到委內瑞拉以支持生產，然後與該交易相關的利潤或現金流將反映在我們的業績中。

But otherwise nothing, so there will be no effect.

但除此之外什麼都沒有，所以不會有任何效果。

If we get no further cash or we don't require components or can't obtain components to ship in there will be no effect on our results from Venezuela.

如果我們沒有獲得更多現金，或者我們不需要組件或無法獲得組件來運送，那麼我們在委內瑞拉的業績不會受到影響。

Great, that's very helpful.

太好了，這非常有幫助。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

約翰‧墨菲，美銀美林。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

Just a first question; if we think about the guidance for North America margins of 8% to 9% for the full year and then the cadence of earnings that you alluded to on slide 28 it would indicate that the margins in the second half of the year, or maybe even in the second quarter in North America, will be 10% or potentially higher.

只是第一個問題；如果我們考慮北美全年利潤率為 8% 至 9% 的指導，然後考慮您在幻燈片 28 上提到的收益節奏，這將表明下半年的利潤率，甚至可能是北美第二季度的成長率將達到10% 或可能更高。

Should we think about that as a more normal operating environment or more normal level that you might be able to achieve in the future versus what we will see early in the year?

我們是否應該將其視為未來可能達到的更正常的營運環境或更正常的水平，而不是我們在今年年初看到的情況？

I'm just trying to understand that.

我只是想理解這一點。

Yes, what we have said consistently for a number of years is North America should run between 8% to 10%.

是的，我們多年來一直堅持說北美的成長率應該在 8% 到 10% 之間。

Of course that is going to vary; depends on the quarter, depends on where we are in product cadence, launch cycles, what is happening in the external environment, what competition might be doing.

當然，情況會有所不同；取決於季度，取決於我們的產品節奏、發布週期、外部環境發生的情況以及競爭可能會發生的情況。

But it should range in there.

但它的範圍應該在那裡。

In fact, if you look at prior to 2014 we kind of averaged a bit over 9% from 2010 through 2013.

事實上，如果你看看 2014 年之前的情況，我們從 2010 年到 2013 年的平均成長率略高於 9%。

We did better the last two of those years.

過去兩年我們做得更好。

But then we got into the big launch period and we said we would be in the 8% to 9% range this year.

但隨後我們進入了大規模發布階段，我們表示今年的成長幅度將在 8% 到 9% 之間。

Thought low-end; we came in sort of mid.

思想低端；我們是在中間來的。

So Joe and the team did a great job in the fourth quarter, particularly on costs, and so we did better a bit than we had thought.

所以喬和團隊在第四季做得很好，特別是在成本方面，所以我們做得比我們想像的要好一些。

As we move into next year, 8% to 9% continues to be the guidance.

進入明年，8% 至 9% 仍是指導值。

We are affected by the launches in the first quarter; not just F-Series, but some other very high-margin products that Mark mentioned, the Explorer and the Edge.

我們受到第一季發布的影響；不僅是 F 系列，還包括 Mark 提到的其他一些利潤率很高的產品，例如 Explorer 和 Edge。

And we actually have still a very active year of launches in North America, I think seven overall.

實際上，我們在北美的發布仍然非常活躍，我認為總共有七次。

So it will have an impact in the first half, primarily first quarter.

因此，它將對上半年，尤其是第一季產生影響。

Your thesis is right.

你的論文是對的。

We will see a lower margin than on average through the year in the first quarter.

我們將看到第一季的利潤率低於全年平均水平。

It will start to recover and be very attractive in the second, third, and fourth, and give us the type of margin that we are describing for the full year.

它將開始復甦，並在第二、第三和第四年非常有吸引力，並為我們帶來我們所描述的全年利潤類型。

And we will see how things work out.

我們將會看看事情會如何發展。

We might have the opportunity to operate at the higher end of that range, but I think it's a bit too early to say.

我們可能有機會在該範圍的高端進行操作，但我認為現在說還為時過早。

I would rather let the year get underway, see how all these launches go -- as you know, F-Series went very, very well -- and then we will update you as the year goes on.

我寧願讓這一年開始，看看所有這些發布進展如何——如你所知，F 系列進展得非常非常好——然後我們將隨著這一年的進展向你更新最新消息。

Okay.

好的。

Then just a second question on Asia Pac.

接下來是關於亞太地區的第二個問題。

It looks like the results in China are coming through pretty strong.

看起來中國的結果相當強勁。

The JV net income or equity income was $1.3 billion almost.

合資公司的淨收入或股權收入接近13億美元。

Yet it looks like the rest of the business is really under some pretty significant pressure.

然而，看起來其他業務確實面臨相當大的壓力。

For the full year you posted almost a $700 million loss.

您公佈的全年虧損近 7 億美元。

I know you've alluded to some actions there, but is there anything else that you need to do as far as rationalization or restructuring in that business that would be more concrete and provide for better results going forward?

我知道您已經提到了那裡的一些行動，但是就該業務的合理化或重組而言，您是否還需要做任何其他事情，以實現更具體並為未來提供更好的結果？

What would the charges look like for that or what would the actions look like for that?

對此的指控會是什麼樣子，或是會採取什麼樣的行動？

When you step back, John, and you look at the results outside, obviously part of it is due to just the business environment that we are dealing with there and the currencies.

約翰，當你退後一步看看外面的結果時，顯然部分原因是我們在那裡處理的商業環境和貨幣。

But we focus on the things we can control, and to your point, as you know, in Australia we are restructuring the business.

但我們專注於我們可以控制的事情，正如您所知，在澳大利亞，我們正在重組業務。

We're closing our plant there in 2016.

我們將於 2016 年關閉那裡的工廠。

So we are working our way through that and also at the same time introducing -- we will have 30% more products in the market over the next couple of years to drive the top line as we are working the cost side to hopefully improve the bottom line.

因此，我們正在努力解決這個問題，同時介紹——未來幾年，我們將在市場上增加 30% 的產品，以推動營收，同時我們正在努力控製成本，希望改善營收線。

In India, it's about the investments we are making for growth.

在印度，這與我們為成長而進行的投資有關。

As you know, we are opening our second major assembly facility there, which is not only going to support the domestic market but is going to be an export hub for us as well.

如您所知，我們正在那裡開設第二個主要組裝廠，這不僅將支持國內市場，而且也將成為我們的出口中心。

So we are working on that and we are seeing the upfront investments around that, which is driving the situation.

因此，我們正在努力解決這個問題，我們看到了圍繞該問題的前期投資，這正在推動這種情況。

We are starting to see, as you heard in my remarks earlier, a little bit more encouraging results we expect from an economic standpoint, which should help domestically.

正如您在我之前的演講中所聽到的那樣，我們開始看到從經濟角度來看我們預期會出現一些更令人鼓舞的結果，這應該會對國內有所幫助。

And in ASEAN working our way through not only the business environments there but looking in each and every country to make sure that we have the appropriate product lineup, that we take advantage of some of the opportunities and strengths that we have in some of our particular products and use that to drive our business higher.

在東盟，我們不僅要研究那裡的商業環境，還要考察每個國家，以確保我們擁有適當的產品陣容，並利用我們在某些​​特定領域所擁有的一些機會和優勢。產品並利用它來推動我們的業務更高。

But the team is very focused on that piece of the business so in total Asia-Pacific can contribute equally.

但該團隊非常專注於這部分業務，因此整個亞太地區可以做出同等的貢獻。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

羅德‧拉什，德意志銀行。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

A couple things.

有幾件事。

One, your content costs in North America was like an $18 million headwind, which seems pretty modest considering the magnitude of the new product ramp that you are going through.

第一，你們在北美的內容成本相當於 1800 萬美元，考慮到你們正在經歷的新產品升級的規模，這似乎相當適中。

I was hoping you could give us some sense of how we should be thinking about that in 2015.

我希望您能讓我們了解 2015 年我們該如何思考這個問題。

Looking at the Europe business, perhaps you can give us some brackets around the year-over-year impact you are anticipating from Russia.

看看歐洲業務，也許您可以給我們一些您對俄羅斯的預期同比影響的括號。

And then lastly, since you guys gave guidance oil prices obviously have dropped pretty dramatically, 40%, 50%.

最後，自從你們給出指導以來，油價顯然已經大幅下跌，40%、50%。

Europe has adopted pretty aggressive QE.

歐洲採取了相當激進的量化寬鬆政策。

A lot of people view that as likely mitigating rate increases in the US.

許多人認為這可能會緩解美國的利率上漲。

I guess high level, when you think about the changes that have occurred since the end of September, how do those influence your views on the outlook for North America into 2015?

我想高層，當您考慮自 9 月底以來發生的變化時，這些變化如何影響您對 2015 年北美前景的看法？

Because I think you were expecting pretty flat earnings net of the non-recurrence of charges last year.

因為我認為您預計去年扣除非重複費用後的淨收入將相當穩定。

Thanks, Rod.

謝謝，羅德。

Bob, why don't you take the first two and I will take the last one?

鮑勃，為什麼你不拿前兩個，我拿最後一個？

Do you want to take the last one first?

你想先拿最後一個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

In terms of looking at the changes that you mentioned, obviously the drop in the oil prices will be good for consumers and we think that will help the economy.

就您提到的變化而言，顯然油價下跌對消費者有利，我們認為這將有助於經濟。

As you saw, Rod, we are expecting some growth in the industry.

正如您所見，羅德，我們預計該行業會出現一些增長。

So far we haven't -- we take a look back and see if there was any correlation between low fuel prices and growth of the industry, and there's not a lot of correlation there.

到目前為止，我們還沒有——我們回顧一下，看看低燃油價格和行業成長之間是否存在任何相關性，而且相關性並不強。

So we are very comfortable with our call for the industry, which is really driven by replacement demand, because as you know the industry has run under replacement demand for five years.

因此，我們對該行業的預測感到非常滿意，該行業實際上是由替換需求驅動的，因為如您所知，該行業已經在替換需求下運行了五年。

So we think that provides a good foundation.

所以我們認為這提供了良好的基礎。

In terms of the mix and what that means for segmentation, it could be an opportunity, but we really don't know yet the impact of lower oil prices, what that means for the industry here in the US.

就組合及其對細分的意義而言，這可能是一個機會，但我們真的不知道油價下跌的影響，以及這對美國產業意味著什麼。

If we look at the fourth quarter, what we saw in the fourth quarter was very consistent segmentation changes that we see seasonally over the years.

如果我們看一下第四季度，我們在第四季度看到的細分變化與多年來我們看到的季節性變化非常一致。

You see full-sized pickups rise because manufacturers are getting more aggressive.

你會看到全尺寸皮卡的崛起是因為製造商變得更加激進。

You see premium rise as some of the luxury OEMs go for leadership and you see small cars actually go down.

隨著一些豪華汽車原始設備製造商爭奪領導地位，您會看到保費上升，而小型汽車實際上會下降。

So we think we will see -- the first quarter will be key to gauge if there is changes in the segmentation, because as you know, in the first quarter we usually see small vehicles and small cars actually go up as a percent of the industry.

因此，我們認為，第一季將是衡量細分市場是否發生變化的關鍵，因為如您所知，在第一季度，我們通常會看到小型車輛和小型汽車實際上佔行業的百分比上升。

But stepping back at a high level, we think it's positive for the economy, positive for the consumer, and that is the backdrop.

但退一步來說，我們認為這對經濟、對消費者都是正面的，這就是背景。

Rod, in terms of the first question around content, you didn't see much in the way of material cost in the quarter because the amount of new products that we actually wholesaled in the quarter wasn't that material, if you will.

羅德，就有關內容的第一個問題而言，您在本季度沒有看到太多材料成本，因為如果您願意的話，我們在本季度實際批發的新產品數量並不是那麼重要。

You will start to see that more fully in the first quarter when we report in April.

當我們在四月發布報告時，您將在第一季開始更全面地看到這一點。

Because what you had is you had really good, strong material cost reductions that the team delivered that largely mitigated the effect of what we did see in terms of product costs.

因為團隊實現了非常好的、強有力的材料成本降低，這在很大程度上減輕了我們在產品成本方面所看到的影響。

So in 2015 for North America you're going to see a much, much stronger business.

因此，2015 年北美地區的業務將會更加強勁。

As we said earlier, you are going to have a lot of growth in terms of volume.

正如我們之前所說，在數量方面將會有很大的成長。

You are going to have higher share.

你將擁有更高的份額。

You are going to have much stronger net pricing.

您將獲得更強勁的淨定價。

And that is on the back of the products that we launched last year, which will have full year effects this year, along with the ones that we will newly launch largely in the first quarter of this year.

這是基於我們去年推出的產品以及我們將在今年第一季新推出的產品，這些產品將對今年全年產生影響。

But with that, what you will see is you will see a substantial increase in product costs and you will also see higher structural costs.

但這樣一來，你會看到產品成本大幅增加，結構成本也更高。

Particularly if you go back to the F-150 program, given the scope of that program, the degree to which we had to change and refacilitize the facilities, that piece will obviously be with us for most of the year given the timing of the launch of Kansas City.

特別是如果你回到 F-150 項目，考慮到該項目的範圍，以及我們必須改變和重新改造設施的程度，考慮到發射的時間，該項目顯然將在今年的大部分時間裡與我們在一起堪薩斯城。

So very, very strong improvement in the top line, but you will see cost increases flowing through both at the product level and structural level.

營收的改善非常非常強勁，但你會看到產品層面和結構層面的成本增加。

In terms of Europe, it is interesting.

就歐洲而言，這很有趣。

When you look at Europe and you go back to the transformation plan that Stephen Odell and his team announced back in, I think it was October of 2012, in that Russia was an important element because we had made a decision to go with a local partner, which has been good.

當你看歐洲並回顧 Stephen Odell 和他的團隊宣布的轉型計劃時，我認為那是 2012 年 10 月，其中俄羅斯是一個重要因素，因為我們決定與當地合作夥伴合作，這已經很好了。

At the time we were looking at an industry that could grow to 4 million units, I think it was, by the end of the decade.

當時我們正在尋找一個可以在本世紀末增長到 400 萬台的行業，我認為是這樣。

It was at sometime between then and the end of the decade going to become the largest industry in Europe.

從那時到本世紀末的某個時候，它成為歐洲最大的產業。

And of course that has all changed; it is just a difficult situation.

當然，這一切都改變了；這只是一個困難的情況。

We're looking now at industry volume this year that is probably sub-2 million units.

我們現在預計今年的行業銷量可能會低於 200 萬台。

You've got very high interest rates.

你的利率非常高。

You've got the collapse of the ruble.

盧布崩潰了。

You've also got, in our case for example, in all the euro-based manufacturers very aggressive pricing to respond to the change of the ruble versus the euro.

以我們為例，所有歐元製造商都採用非常積極的定價來應對盧布兌歐元的變化。

And then we've got competitors, particularly the Japanese and then the Koreans as well, who have not had to price as much because their currencies had already weakened relative to the euro and the dollar.

然後我們還有競爭對手，特別是日本人，然後還有韓國人，他們不必定價那麼多，因為他們的貨幣相對於歐元和美元已經走弱。

So there is a change in the competitive environment within Russia as well, which we are trying to respond to.

因此，俄羅斯內部的競爭環境也發生了變化，我們正在努力應對這項變化。

So we do expect to see a big headwind from Russia in 2015 and that is the major change in the guidance that we are providing versus what we said in September.

因此，我們確實預計 2015 年會出現來自俄羅斯的巨大逆風，這是我們提供的指導與 9 月所說的相比的重大變化。

And when you think about it the question you're going to ask me is, well, you wrote off your equity in the second quarter of your 50/50 JV, so you had said at the time that that won't have any financial effect on you if they were to continue to incur losses, which is true.

當你思考這個問題時，你要問我的問題是，你在 50/50 合資企業的第二季度註銷了你的股權，所以你當時說過，這不會有任何財務影響。如果他們繼續遭受損失，就會對您產生影響，這是事實。

But we still provide components and make money on those components.

但我們仍然提供組件並透過這些組件賺錢。

We still provide after-service parts, make money on those.

我們仍然提供售後服務零件，並從中賺錢。

We still engineer the products that they will ultimately build and sell, so we are incurring that expense.

我們仍然設計他們最終將製造和銷售的產品，因此我們承擔了這筆費用。

And for that we receive royalties, which of course are going to be lower.

為此，我們會收到版稅，當然會更低。

All of that is lower because the volumes are lower.

所有這些都較低，因為數量較低。

But in addition, frankly, because of the very difficult situation the business is facing there, the partners are having to provide additional support for the business.

但除此之外，坦白說，由於當地業務面臨非常困難的情況，合作夥伴必須為業務提供額外的支援。

And of course we are working very closely together to respond to what is a dramatically different environment than what we thought even six months ago.

當然，我們正在密切合作，以應對與六個月前截然不同的環境。

Just to Bob's point, we are acting very proactively in Russia.

正如鮑伯所說，我們在俄羅斯的行動非常積極。

We've cut production.

我們已經削減了產量。

We reduced overhead, but also we are working the top line.

我們減少了管理費用，但我們也在努力提高營收。

As you know, we are introducing six new products between mid-year last year and the end of 2015, so I guess I would term it there's never a bad time to introduce good product in any market and that's our approach.

如你所知，我們從去年年中到 2015 年底推出了六種新產品，所以我想我會說，在任何市場上推出好產品都沒有什麼不好的時機，這就是我們的方法。

Can you bracket the impact that you are expecting?

您能將您預期的影響括起來嗎？

It just seems like you've changed a lot over there, but what is the magnitude?

看起來你的變化確實很大，但是變化有多大呢？

Well, the only thing I would guide you to in the appendix, you can see the year-over-year effect of Russia on Europe and it was $350 million.

嗯，我在附錄中唯一要引導您注意的是，您可以看到俄羅斯對歐洲的逐年影響，達到 3.5 億美元。

All I will say is that the environment in 2015 is more difficult.

我只想說，2015年的環境更困難。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Can you remind us how much of the pickup truck market in North America last year, or whatever period that you have that is recent and relevant, is tied to oil and gas end-markets and maybe the great Lone Star State specifically?

您能否提醒我們，去年北美的皮卡市場或最近的相關時期有多少皮卡市場與石油和天然氣終端市場，尤其是偉大的孤星州有關？

Adam, this is Mark.

亞當，這是馬克。

We don't have a specific number, but obviously it's a piece of it.

我們沒有具體的數字，但顯然這是其中的一部分。

Obviously the biggest piece of pickup truck is the housing market, but what we have seen is there could be some --.

顯然，皮卡車最大的一塊是房地產市場，但我們看到的是可能還有一些——。

As we step back and we look at the energy prices and what that may mean, for example, for wellhead drilling and all that kind of -- those type of things, it could have a slight negative impact in, let's say, the Southwest.

當我們退後一步，看看能源價格及其可能意味著什麼時，例如，對於井口鑽探和所有此類事情，它可能會對西南地區產生輕微的負面影響。

But keep in mind we could see positive impact in the rest of the country from lower fuel prices with more money in consumers' pockets.

但請記住，我們可以看到燃油價格下降對全國其他地區產生正面影響，消費者口袋裡的錢更多。

Plus the other thing that is encouraging, you look at the latest housing numbers in terms of starts and permits, etc., we could see an offset on that.

另外，另一件令人鼓舞的事情是，你看看最新的住房開工率和許可證等數據，我們可能會看到這一點的抵消。

So that's basically the way I would characterize it.

這基本上就是我描述它的方式。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Just as a follow-up, what would your team rank as a more worrisome issue to you: the strong U.S. dollar or these CAFE standards that are kind of completely out of touch with reality beyond 2017?

作為後續問題，您的團隊將哪個問題列為您更擔心的問題：強勢美元還是這些與 2017 年後的現實完全脫節的 CAFE 標準？

And a follow-on to that, maybe could Ford weigh in on where -- on the issue of raising the gasoline tax?

接下來，也許福特可以就提高汽油稅的問題發表意見？

Guys have any dog in that hunt?

夥計們，狩獵中有狗嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay, well, let me take the last one first.

好吧，我先來說最後一個。

The gasoline tax, our position is we will leave that to the policymakers to figure out whether they have support for that.

對於汽油稅，我們的立場是，我們將把它留給政策制定者來決定他們是否支持。

What we are in support of is the things that we can control and what we can control is continue to have the team focused on delivering affordable and fuel-efficient vehicles to the market that people want and value, so that's our approach.

我們支持的是我們可以控制的事情，我們可以控制的是繼續讓團隊專注於向人們想要和重視的市場提供價格實惠且節能的車輛，所以這就是我們的方法。

In terms of the two things you mentioned, the impact of the strong dollar.

就你提到的兩件事來說，就是美元強勢的影響。

As Bob mentioned, we are not seeing a big bottom-line effect on our financials in 2015 because it's a multifaceted thing.

正如 Bob 所提到的，我們沒有看到 2015 年財務狀況受到重大影響，因為這是一件多方面的事。

On the positive side, a strong U.S. dollar indicates strength in our economy and obviously that's good given our position in the market here and it's our largest and most profitable.

從積極的一面來看，強勢美元表明我們的經濟實力強勁，考慮到我們在這裡的市場地位，而且這是我們最大、利潤最高的市場，這顯然是件好事。

Alternatively, a strong dollar has an effect, as Bob mentioned, on our competitive position, especially against competitors who import here into the US.

另外，正如鮑伯所提到的，強勢美元會對我們的競爭地位產生影響，特別是相對於從這裡進口到美國的競爭對手。

They could take it through pricing, reduced pricing, or increased content.

他們可以透過定價、降低價格或增加內容來實現這一目標。

So as we think about that for exchange, for exchange movements that are driven by the markets and not by governments, we will deal with the hand that we are given and use our creating value roadmap process to improve the situation.

因此，當我們考慮交換時，考慮到由市場而不是政府驅動的交換運動時，我們將處理我們所得到的幫助，並利用我們的創造價值路線圖流程來改善這種情況。

On the regulatory, it is a big issue.

就監管而言，這是一個大問題。

As you know, to meet those requirements it is going to be very important for consumers to adopt the new technologies, the electrified vehicles, etc., and that is an important part of meeting the country's goals.

如您所知，為了滿足這些要求，消費者採用新技術、電動車等非常重要，這是實現國家目標的重要組成部分。

What we're seeing right now is they are not adopting them to the levels anywhere near that we expected, so that is why we are very looking forward to the mid-term review with the government.

我們現在看到的是，他們的採用水平遠遠沒有達到我們預期的水平，因此我們非常期待與政府進行中期審查。

And, as you know, to agree to the one national standard we wanted to make sure we had a mid-term review to look at the feasibility of the goals, cost to the consumer, impact on jobs, etc.

而且，如您所知，為了同意一項國家標準，我們希望確保進行中期審查，以研究目標的可行性、消費者的成本、對就業的影響等。

So that's probably the one that -- is the one that we focus a lot on because it requires a market response from that and adoption, and we're not seeing it at this point.

所以這可能是我們非常關注的一個，因為它需要市場的反應和採用，而我們目前還沒有看到它。

Colin Langan, UBS.

柯林‧蘭根，瑞銀。

My first question is can you just give a broad update of the F-150 launch and the Dearborn plant ramping?

我的第一個問題是，您能否大致介紹一下 F-150 的發布和迪爾伯恩工廠的產能提升情況？

Is it fully ramped this point?

至此是否已完全提升？

Is Kansas City on schedule?

堪薩斯城是否按計劃進行？

And do you have any color of the new F-150 is pricing -- any color around pricing there in particular?

您有新款 F-150 的任何顏色的定價嗎？特別是有什麼顏色的定價嗎？

The second question is on foreign exchange.

第二個問題是關於外匯的。

How are you being impacted by FX?

您如何受到外匯的影響？

Because you are expected to lose money in Europe and South America, so does some of the volatility there actually shrink the translation of losses?

因為你預計會在歐洲和南美虧損，那麼那裡的一些波動實際上會縮小損失的轉換嗎？

Is that a net positive to you or is the intra-regional FX impact more than offsetting that?

這對您來說是淨利好還是區域內外匯影響足以抵銷這項影響？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Colin.

謝謝，科林。

I will take the first one.

我會選擇第一個。

I'm surprised it took that long to get an F-150 question, but I'm glad we did.

我很驚訝花了這麼長時間才收到 F-150 問題，但我很高興我們做到了。

We are exactly on plan where we expected to be with the F-150 launch.

我們完全按照 F-150 發射的預期計劃進行。

We have added the third crew at our Dearborn Truck Plant.

我們在迪爾伯恩卡車工廠增加了第三名工作人員。

We're almost completely through the acceleration curve, a little bit more time on that, but that's going smoothly.

我們幾乎完全通過了加速曲線，還需要一點時間，但一切進展順利。

In Kansas City, we have installed the equipment into the body shop and the team is going through the debugging right now, so that is absolutely on plan.

在堪薩斯城，我們已經將設備安裝到車身車間，團隊現在正在進行調試，所以這絕對是在計劃之中。

As you look at the market response, as we noted in December, we are seeing very strong demand for the F-150.

正如我們在 12 月指出的那樣，從市場反應來看，我們發現對 F-150 的需求非常強勁。

It is our fastest-turning vehicle on the lot and actually, as we look at this month -- we have a few more days to close -- if we track as we expected, we could have our best January since 2004.

它是我們在停車場上轉彎最快的車輛，實際上，正如我們本月所看到的那樣——我們還有幾天就要關閉——如果我們按照預期進行跟踪，我們可能會迎來自2004年以來最好的1 月。

And we will see a material increase in terms of the percent of our -- the 2015 F-150s as a percent of our total sales.

我們將看到 2015 年 F-150 占我們總銷量的百分比將大幅增加。

The mix has been rich, which is good, and just anecdotally, we were in the NADA convention this weekend talking with dealers and I had a number of dealers tell me that they haven't even driven the truck home yet because literally as soon as they are showing up on the vehicle transports they are going out.

組合很豐富，這很好，而且有趣的是，我們在本週末的 NADA 大會上與經銷商進行了交談，許多經銷商告訴我，他們甚至還沒有將卡車開回家，因為實際上一旦他們出現在他們要出去的交通工具上。

So very, very encouraging initial response to the F-150 and we are bang on where we expected to be in terms of our launch.

對 F-150 的初步反應非常非常令人鼓舞，我們在發布方面達到了預期目標。

Colin, in terms of your question on exchanges, I'm looking at 2015.

Colin，就你對交易所的問題而言，我指的是 2015 年。

It doesn't -- broadly across the Company there are some ups and downs, but it doesn't seem to have much of a material impact.

事實並非如此——整個公司總體上存在一些起伏，但似乎並沒有產生太大的實質影響。

I think you are technically right; where we have losses like in South America and Europe, just looking at the translation effect, obviously the loss in local currency will translate into fewer dollars.

我認為你在技術上是正確的；在南美和歐洲等我們有損失的地方，只要看看換算效果，顯然當地貨幣的損失將轉化為更少的美元。

But there are other flows; you have got pounds, you've got euros, you've got a number of different currencies at play there.

但還有其他的流動；你有英鎊，你有歐元，你有​​許多不同的貨幣在起作用。

But broadly, for the whole company it's not having much of an effect there.

但總的來說，對於整個公司來說，它並沒有產生太大的影響。

I won't talk again about the competitive factor.

我不會再談論競爭因素。

I think that's the bigger concern that we have in terms of the impact on the business is the competitive factor that Mark touched on, but he handled that.

我認為，就對業務的影響而言，我們更擔心的是馬克提到的競爭因素，但他處理了這個問題。

So the only other thing I would say is I think when we are having conversations around exchange, and particularly a strong dollar, we probably also should at least comment on commodities because there is a correlation between the dollar and commodities and -- well, many currencies and commodities.

因此，我要說的唯一另一件事是，我認為當我們圍繞匯率，特別是強勢美元進行對話時，我們可能至少還應該對大宗商品發表評論，因為美元和大宗商品之間存在相關性— —嗯，很多貨幣和商品。

What we are seeing, in fact, as the dollar has strengthened we are starting to see good news on the horizon from commodities and it is pretty much across most commodities.

事實上，我們所看到的是，隨著美元走強，我們開始看到大宗商品即將出現的好消息，而且幾乎涵蓋了大多數大宗商品。

We think that will actually be a help for the business in 2015.

我們認為這實際上會對 2015 年的業務有所幫助。

Brian Johnson, Barclays.

布萊恩·約翰遜，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Just given the volatility of fuel prices, I want to ask a question we haven't really talked about for a while, which is around the flexibility in your factories to go back and forth between CUVs and sedans because it really seems the consumer is rotating away from sedans towards CUVs.

考慮到燃油價格的波動，我想問一個我們已經有一段時間沒有真正討論過的問題了，這個問題是關於你們工廠在 CUV 和轎車之間來回切換的靈活性，因為消費者似乎確實在輪換從轎車轉向CUV。

A couple -- three questions.

幾個問題——三個問題。

One, can you recap just what factories you have right now that currently can go back and forth between the two?

第一，您能回顧一下您現在擁有哪些可以在兩者之間來回切換的工廠嗎？

Two, do you see more scope for doing that perhaps as you roll over some platforms in the next few years so you have that flexibility?

第二，當你在未來幾年內推出一些平台時，你是否認為這樣做有更多的空間，以便你擁有這種彈性？

And three, do you currently have with work rules, layoffs, reassignment provisions the kind of flexibility in your union contracts you would need to kind of get to the nirvana of being able to flex to where the customer demand is?

第三，您目前的工會合約中是否有工作規則、裁員、重新分配條款，您是否需要這種彈性才能達到能夠靈活滿足客戶需求的涅槃？

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Let me take the last one first.

讓我先來說最後一個。

When you look at the flexibility, if you recall, back in the 2011 contract very importantly we came to agreements with our UAW colleagues around improved flexibility.

當您考慮靈活性時，您是否還記得，在 2011 年合約中，非常重要的是，我們與 UAW 同事就提高靈活性達成了協議。

And that has worked wonderfully for us over the last number of years in terms of adding Saturday hours or increased shifts, etc.

在過去的幾年裡，這在增加週六工作時間或增加輪班等方面對我們來說非常有效。

In terms of the flexibility between cars and CUVs, I don't know the number off the top of my head in terms of the number of plants, but I would say it is fairly limited in terms of a plant that produces a car and a CUV and utility.

就汽車和 CUV 之間的靈活性而言，我不知道工廠的數量是多少，但我想說，就生產汽車和汽車的工廠而言，這是相當有限的。CUV 和實用性。

But we do have opportunities as we see the market move, again using that flexibility, the work rule flexibility that we have with the unions, to either add additional weekend days or in some cases increase line rates.

但當我們看到市場變化時，我們確實有機會再次利用這種靈活性，即我們與工會的工作規則靈活性，增加額外的周末天數，或在某些情況下提高線路費率。

And to your second point about going forward, obviously that's something that we continue to look at as we plan our product cycles and our manufacturing -- optimizing our manufacturing footprint to take into account shifts.

關於未來的第二點，顯然這是我們在規劃產品週期和製造時繼續關注的問題——優化我們的製造足跡以考慮到變化。

And then can we get the flexibility that we want in our manufacturing plants?

那麼我們的製造工廠能否獲得我們想要的彈性呢？

We do have that, for example, in a plant in Wayne, Michigan, where we produce a number of different vehicles and engines, but we will continue to look at that going forward.

例如，我們在密西根州韋恩的一家工廠確實擁有這樣的設施，我們在那裡生產多種不同的車輛和發動機，但我們將繼續關注這一點。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

瑞安·布林克曼，摩根大通。

Good morning, thanks for taking my call.

早上好，感謝您接聽我的電話。

I know you discussed the impact of fuel prices on segment mix earlier and that is important, but looking at it from a different perspective, can you help us in terms of sizing up maybe your annual logistics and freight expense?

我知道您之前討論過燃油價格對細分市場組合的影響，這很重要，但從不同的角度來看，您能否幫助我們估算一下您的年度物流和貨運費用？

How to think about how that could be impacted by, say, a 50% drop in fuel prices, whether we should be taking that into account in our models?

如何考慮燃油價格下降 50% 等因素會如何影響這一點，我們是否應該在我們的模型中考慮這一點？

Yes, that is sort of a corollary to the commodities.

是的，這是大宗商品的必然結果。

The oil price decline is going to give us the opportunities to see reductions in logistics expenses and we are already seeing that as an opportunity for this year, so you are spot on.

油價下跌將為我們帶來物流費用減少的機會，我們已經將其視為今年的機會，所以您說得對。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Then I guess as a follow-up to that; I know you have pass-through agreements with suppliers to compensate them when commodity prices rise and to recoup those savings when they fall.

然後我想作為後續行動；我知道你們與供應商簽訂了轉手協議，以便在商品價格上漲時補償他們，並在商品價格下跌時收回這些節省的費用。

Do you have a way to capture the change in the suppliers' logistics expenses or are they sort of permitted to keep that?

您是否有辦法捕捉供應商物流費用的變化，或者他們是否被允許保留這項變更？

That would probably be subject to negotiation with them, but we do issue -- as you said and we've talked to you about it before, we do have indexing across parts of our supply base related to commodities.

這可能需要與他們進行談判，但我們確實有問題——正如您所說，我們之前已經與您討論過，我們確實對與大宗商品相關的部分供應基地建立了索引。

So as they go up, there's adjustments.

因此，當它們上升時，就會進行調整。

As they go down, there's adjustments.

當它們下降時，就會有調整。

I think the logistics impact, just as it is for us is a more indirect impact.

我認為物流影響對我們來說是一種更間接的影響。

But certainly we are aware of that and would hope to capture that as that opportunity occurs at the level of the supplier.

但我們當然意識到了這一點，並希望抓住這一點，因為這種機會發生在供應商層面。

Also, just add to that, we manage a lot of the inbound logistics into our plants, so we will work that aspect as well in terms of what we can control.

此外，補充一點，我們管理工廠的大量入庫物流，因此我們也會在我們可以控制的範圍內進行這方面的工作。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Then just last question for me on China.

接下來是我關於中國的最後一個問題。

Lots of talk of China slowdown recently, but actually it hasn't slowed.

最近很多人都在談論中國經濟放緩，但實際上並沒有放緩。

We continue to see all-time record highs there, 25-plus-million SAAR in December, etc.

我們繼續看到歷史新高，12 月的 SAAR 超過 25 億，等等。

How are you thinking about China industry in 2015?

您如何看待2015年的中國工業？

What is the latest you are seeing on the ground?

您在實地看到的最新情況是什麼？

Then, if sales did slow, does that necessarily impact your plan since you are also gaining a lot of market share?

那麼，如果銷售確實放緩，這是否一定會影響您的計劃，因為您也獲得了很多市場份額？

Great, Ryan.

太棒了，瑞安。

As we look at China we still see growth.

當我們觀察中國時，我們仍然看到成長。

As you saw from our projections, we expect it to be between 24.5 million and 26.5 million units.

正如您從我們的預測中看到的那樣，我們預計銷量將在 2,450 萬至 2,650 萬台之間。

Again, a lot of that growth is coming from the Tier 3 through 6 cities as consumers -- their income rises and they are able to buy a vehicle.

同樣，大部分成長來自三至六線城市的消費者——他們的收入增加，有能力購買車輛。

As we look at the industry overall, we had record market share there last year of 4.5% and, as I mentioned, record number of wholesales.

縱觀整個產業，我們去年的市佔率達到創紀錄的 4.5%，而且正如我所提到的，批發數量也創紀錄。

We expect our business to grow again this year and the reason for that is because we are bringing on another plant.

我們預計今年的業務將再次成長，原因是我們正在引進另一家工廠。

We just launched our Escort at the end of last year.

我們去年年底剛推出了 Escort。

We have a number of products coming this year which are products that actually increase our segment breadth.

今年我們推出了許多產品，這些產品實際上擴大了我們的細分市場廣度。

So it's not just about introducing a new product in a segment we are already in, it's introducing products into segments we have not been in.

因此，這不僅僅是在我們已經涉足的細分市場中推出新產品，而是將產品引入我們尚未涉足的細分市場。

So we think that that provides a good basis for us.

所以我們認為這為我們提供了良好的基礎。

We're coming off a position of strength.

我們正在失去強勢地位。

The brand is held in high regard.

該品牌受到高度重視。

The Focus was the best-selling nameplate again for the second or third year in a row, and our buyers tend to be younger and have higher income than the industry average.

福克斯連續第二年或第三年再次成為最暢銷的品牌，我們的買家往往更年輕，收入高於行業平均水平。

Working with our partners we have really built out our distribution network, particularly in those Tier 3 through 6 cities.

我們與合作夥伴合作，真正建立了我們的分銷網絡，特別是在三至六線城市。

So we expect growth; not as much in the industry as we saw last year for the reasons I cited earlier, but we are very encouraged by the positive response we might get from our new products to help grow our business.

所以我們期望成長；由於我之前提到的原因，行業中的情況並不像我們去年看到的那麼多，但我們對我們的新產品可能獲得的積極反應感到非常鼓舞，以幫助我們發展業務。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

伊曼紐爾·羅斯納，里昂證券。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Wanted to drill down a little bit more on the earnings impact from some of the large investments you made last year.

希望更深入地了解您去年進行的一些大型投資對收益的影響。

In North America specifically you were mentioning before you expect stronger volume, share and pricing, but also a substantial increase in product cost and structural cost.

特別是在北美，您之前提到過，您預計銷售、份額和定價會增加，但產品成本和結構成本也會大幅增加。

So wanted to just ask on both these things; first of all, on the product costs versus pricing, do you expect it to be net positive this year?

所以想問這兩件事；首先，就產品成本與定價而言，您預計今年會出現淨正值嗎？

Then on the structural cost, I don't know if you will provide guidance specifically on that, but by how much do you expect D&A to increase this year?

那麼關於結構性成本，不知道您是否會專門提供指導，但是您預計今年的D&A會增加多少？

Obviously you have been running at $4 billion plus when you were spending $7.5 billion on CapEx.

顯然，當你在資本支出上花費 75 億美元時，你的營運成本卻超過了 40 億美元。

So do you expect a substantial increase in D&A this year?

那麼您預計今年的 D&A 會大幅增加嗎？

Yes, let me -- do you want me to take that?

是的，讓我──你想讓我接受嗎？

So if I look at the Company and I look at our structural costs, they will be up more than they were in 2014 versus 2013.

因此，如果我看看公司和我們的結構成本，就會發現與 2013 年相比，2014 年的增幅會更大。

The biggest factors of that will actually be engineering and manufacturing.

其中最大的因素實際上是工程和製造。

And some of that is not just because of what we have already done, but obviously we are still investing for even more growth in the years ahead, particularly if you go back to Investor Day and think about the type of growth that we were projecting out through 2020.

其中一些不僅僅是因為我們已經做了什麼，而且顯然我們仍在為未來幾年的更多增長而投資，特別是如果你回到投資者日並思考我們預測的增長類型到 2020 年。

So those are the two biggest factors.

所以這是兩個最大的因素。

But we will see an increase in D&A.

但我們會看到 D&A 的增加。

I'm not going to provide a specific number.

我不會提供具體數字。

It's, not by any means, the largest of the elements that we will see next year, but it will be a good increase in terms of the size.

無論如何，這不是我們明年將看到的最大的元素，但就大小而言，它將是一個很好的成長。

And again, that is related to investments that we will have already made or perhaps some made during the year.

再說一次，這與我們已經進行的或今年可能進行的一些投資有關。

In terms of pricing, we will see strong positive pricing both for product-related actions and -- as we always do -- and that was evident in the fourth quarter, too, in terms of the pricing we achieved around the world, where we can opportunistically take pricing unrelated to product we will do that.

在定價方面，我們將看到與產品相關的行動的強勁積極定價 - 正如我們一貫所做的那樣 - 這在第四季度也很明顯，就我們在全球範圍內實現的定價而言，我們可以機會主義地採取與產品無關的定價，我們會這樣做。

And I would expect that to be the case again in 2015.

我預計 2015 年情況會再次出現。

But, again, we have to be very sensitive to the competitive position and that plays back in some of the earlier comments around what the Japanese competitors in particular may do, particularly in the super segment vehicles.

但是，我們必須對競爭地位非常敏感，這在之前關於日本競爭對手可能做什麼的一些評論中得到了體現，特別是在超級細分市場車輛方面。

But we will have very strong pricing.

但我們將有非常強勁的定價。

Again, obviously since we expect the results for the Company and for North America to be better, we do expect for the combination of the volume, the revenue that we will see more of that in terms of the positive effect than we will through the combination of the cost increases that we see.

同樣，顯然，由於我們預計公司和北美的業績會更好，因此我們確實預計，就銷量和收入而言，我們將看到比合併帶來更多的積極影響。我們看到的成本增加。

Patrick Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

派崔克阿尚博，高盛。

Thanks, most of my questions have been answered.

謝謝，我的大部分問題都得到了解答。

Actually, just one for me.

事實上，對我來說只是一件。

The increased free cash flow guidance from positive to higher, what are the main drivers behind that?

自由現金流指引從正值上升至較高值，背後的主要驅動因素為何？

When we gave the guidance of positive we were just saying that it wasn't going to be negative.

當我們給予正面的指導時，我們只是說它不會是負面的。

It's still going to be positive cash flow and that is -- we were waiting because obviously, as you know, cash flow is a change of a change to some extent, so we wanted to see how we did in 2014.

它仍然會是正現金流，也就是說——我們一直在等待，因為顯然，如你所知，現金流在某種程度上是一個變化中的變化，所以我們想看看2014 年我們的表現如何。

Now we have a good baseline and we can look and understand what we are looking at for 2015.

現在我們有了一個很好的基線，我們可以了解並了解 2015 年的目標。

Clearly, we're going to see it driven by the top line, so the profitability is going to be a lot stronger.

顯然，我們將看到它是由營收驅動的，因此獲利能力將會更強。

We see about no change in terms of the CapEx.

我們認為資本支出沒有改變。

We've already talked about that, the $7.5 billion versus the $7.4 billion.

我們已經討論過 75 億美元和 74 億美元。

And then I think the changes that we will see in working capital and timing differences are not that material in terms of preventing us from seeing the fuller flow-through of what's happening on the improved profitability.

然後我認為我們在營運資本和時間差異方面看到的變化並沒有那麼重要，不會阻止我們看到盈利能力提高所發生的事情的更全面的流動。

I think that the profits are probably the single-biggest driver that will flow through to the operating profitability.

我認為利潤可能是影響營業利潤的最大驅動因素。

Joseph Spak, RBC.

約瑟夫‧斯帕克，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Wanted to ask another F-150 question, but this one about maybe the initial fleet reception.

想問另一個 F-150 問題，但這個問題可能是關於最初的機隊接收情況。

You've talked about maintaining, if not improving, the cost of ownership.

您談到了維持（如果不是提高的話）擁有成本。

Obviously we saw the mpgs on the new versus the old and now fuel is a little bit lower, so maybe less of a benefit there.

顯然，我們看到了新車與舊車的每加侖英里數，現在燃料有點低，所以可能沒有什麼好處。

And I'm sure you've seen the Edmunds report which showed that the labor to replace aluminum could be maybe 4x steel and maybe 2x the time.

我相信您已經看過埃德蒙茲的報告，該報告表明，替代鋁的勞動力可能是鋼鐵的 4 倍，時間可能是鋼鐵的 2 倍。

So was wondering: are there are offsets to that cost of ownership that we are not considering?

所以我想知道：是否有我們沒有考慮的擁有成本的抵銷？

I know the residual is a little bit higher, but wanted to see how that pitch to fleet is going.

我知道殘差有點高，但想看看艦隊的狀況如何。

And then related I guess; how are you supporting the repair shops, both for Ford dealers and the independents, with getting up to speed on aluminum?

我想然後是相關的；您如何支持福特經銷商和獨立經銷商的維修店加快鋁材的使用速度？

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Joseph, for that question.

謝謝約瑟夫提出這個問題。

When you look at the F-150 in terms of the response from the fleets, obviously we are just starting to ship.

當您從機隊的反應來看 F-150 時，顯然我們才剛開始出貨。

And as you mentioned, total cost of ownership is very important to them and their interest in the vehicle is very high.

正如您所提到的，整體擁有成本對他們來說非常重要，而且他們對車輛的興趣非常高。

We are just starting to ship vehicles to them in that regard and we think it is going to go well.

在這方面，我們剛開始向他們運送車輛，我們認為一切都會進展順利。

All you have to do is -- I know it's a different vehicle, but if you look at our Transit, for example, which we launched last year, if you look at even in the month of December, we had our highest share in the van and bus segment since 2006 with a new product.

你所要做的就是——我知道這是一種不同的車輛，但是如果你看看我們去年推出的 Transit，如果你看看 12 月份，你會發現我們在自2006 年以來，貨車和客車領域推出了新產品。

So as you know what fleets do is they take a few units first, they get some experience with them, and once they have good experience with them they really start ramping up the orders.

因此，如您所知，車隊所做的就是他們首先接收一些單位，他們獲得一些使用這些單位的經驗，一旦他們獲得了良好的使用經驗，他們就真正開始增加訂單。

And we expect to see that with F-150.

我們希望在 F-150 上看到這一點。

In terms of cost of ownership, and this gets back to what the purchasing managers are looking at, as we've said the total cost of ownership for the new F-150 is going to be very competitive.

就擁有成本而言，這又回到了採購經理所關注的問題，正如我們所說，新型 F-150 的總擁有成本將非常有競爭力。

We saw the Edmunds report and, unfortunately, the experience with the dealer was incorrect.

我們看到了埃德蒙茲的報告，不幸的是，經銷商的經驗是不正確的。

The amount of time to repair based on the standards that we have developed and also shared with the dealers, it would have been about half the time so it wasn't quite correct.

根據我們制定並與經銷商共享的標準，修復時間大約是一半的時間，因此並不完全正確。

At the same time, as you know, we designed the F-150 so that when there are issues, body issues, etc., that the way we designed it from a modular standpoint is actually very efficient to actually repair the vehicle.

同時，如您所知，我們設計 F-150 時，當出現問題、車身問題等時，我們從模組化角度設計的方式實際上非常有效地修復車輛。

So overall, in terms of what we've done, we've trained over 750 dealers to be certified.

總的來說，就我們所做的事情而言，我們已經培訓了 750 多家經銷商以獲得認證。

Unfortunately, this dealer that Edmunds went to was not one of them; they have not gone through that yet.

不幸的是，埃德蒙茲去找的經銷商不是其中之一；他是一名經銷商。他們還沒有經歷過這些。

But we have certified over 750 and we have worked with over 1,000 independent body shops to get them ready for the F-150.

但我們已經對 750 多家進行了認證，並與 1,000 多家獨立車身修理廠合作，幫助他們為 F-150 做好準備。

But overall with the overall competitive -- very competitive cost of ownership.

但整體而言，整體具有競爭力——擁有成本非常有競爭力。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will be accepting questions from the media.

女士們、先生們，現在我們將接受媒體提問。

(Operator Instructions) Alisa Priddle, Detroit Free Press.

（操作員說明）Alisa Priddle，底特律自由報。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早安，先生們。

Couple things first; I didn't catch what the percentage of the mix was of the new F-150s when you were talking about sales in January.

首先把事情結合起來；當您談論 1 月份的銷量時，我沒有聽清新款 F-150 的混合比例是多少。

And secondly, Mark, was hoping you would just talk a little bit about your continued efforts to make quality a priority given that there was an additional $1.3 billion in warranty costs in 2014.

其次，Mark 希望您能簡單談談您為將品質放在首位而做出的持續努力，因為 2014 年保固成本增加了 13 億美元。

Very good, Alisa.

非常好，艾莉莎。

As I mentioned in December, 5% of our total F-Series was the new F-150.

正如我在 12 月提到的，我們 F 系列總數的 5% 是新款 F-150。

In January, we still have the month yet to close, but you will see a number higher than that as we close out January, as we stock up the units and as we get them to customers.

一月份，我們還有一個月尚未結束，但當我們結束一月份時，您會看到一個比這個數字更高的數字，因為我們庫存了這些單位並將它們交付給客戶。

So you will see a higher number -- or a higher percentage.

所以你會看到更高的數字——或更高的百分比。

In terms of quality, as you know, we have had a lot of focus on quality.

在品質方面，如您所知，我們非常注重品質。

We have had great progress around the world.

我們在世界範圍內取得了巨大進步。

We've seen some of our own internal surveys of initial quality be very positive, particularly around the vehicles that we've launched because traditionally we have had some issues around launch.

我們已經看到我們自己的一些關於初始品質的內部調查非常積極，特別是圍繞我們推出的車輛，因為傳統上我們在發布方面遇到了一些問題。

And I think the team is doing a very good job on making sure that the quality that we send out on our new products is what customers expect.

我認為團隊在確保我們新產品的品質符合客戶的期望方面做得非常好。

And we are seeing that progress verified by third-party results, whether it is J.D. Power or even Consumer Reports.

我們看到第三方結果驗證了這一進展，無論是 J.D. Power 還是《消費者報告》。

So we're going to continue to say very focused on that.

所以我們將繼續說非常關注這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Were there any lessons learned from what you saw in 2014, or are recalls just too unpredictable?

您是否從 2014 年的情況中吸取了教訓，或者召回是否太難以預測？

You know, it's difficult to predict recalls, and some of those were obviously on some older models.

你知道，預測召回是很困難的，其中一些顯然是在一些舊型號上。

We took a lot of lessons from 2012 and 2013, and the team has used that to help our launches actually in 2014.

我們從 2012 年和 2013 年吸取了很多經驗教訓，團隊已利用這些經驗來幫助我們在 2014 年實際發布產品。

So hopefully we will see that reflected in our quality results and potentially recalls going forward, but we will wait and see.

因此，希望我們能看到這一點反映在我們的品質結果中，並可能在未來召回，但我們將拭目以待。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Mike Ramsey, Wall Street Journal.

麥克拉姆齊，《華爾街日報》。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

I know that you guys have new guidance to 2020, but I'm curious; I know that the midterm guidance for mid-decade at one point was 8 million sales globally and we are a couple million off of that.

我知道你們對 2020 年有新的指導，但我很好奇；我知道，十年中期的中期指引曾經是全球銷售 800 萬輛，而我們比這個數字少了幾百萬。

Did things not go as quickly in terms of ramping up your global sales as expected?

您的全球銷售成長速度是否沒有達到預期？

And if so, where was it not as fast as you anticipated?

如果是的話，哪裡沒有你預期的那麼快？

Right.

正確的。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

When we actually announced the mid-decade guidance back in 2011, we said it was -- here are our assumptions and at that point in time Europe hadn't tanked and South America hadn't imploded.

當我們實際上在 2011 年宣布十年中期指導意見時，我們說過——這是我們的假設，當時歐洲還沒有陷入困境，南美洲也沒有崩潰。

So when you take all that into account, a lot of -- if you look at what we projected in terms of the number of wholesales, we had an assumption around industry around the world in the regions and that has changed dramatically given some of the realities of the marketplace.

因此，當你考慮到所有這些因素時，如果你看看我們對批發數量的預測，我們對世界各地各地區的工業有一個假設，考慮到一些因素，這一假設已經發生了巨大的變化。市場的現實。

That being said, as you look back on a number of things on the mid-decade guidance, we have actually achieved and we've factored those into our 2020 guidance going forward.

話雖這麼說，當你回顧十年中期指導中的許多事情時，我們實際上已經取得了成就，並且我們已將這些因素納入我們的 2020 年指導中。

So do you feel pretty good though that -- I know South America is a head scratcher a little bit, but do you think that some of these markets where you've made big investments are going to pick back up again?

所以你感覺很好嗎——我知道南美洲有點令人頭疼，但你認為你進行了大量投資的一些市場會再次復甦嗎？

That we are going to -- it was a stumble and you will see the previously anticipated growth?

我們將會－這是一個絆腳石，你會看到之前預期的成長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We spend a lot of time on making sure that the capital that we allocate that we are going to earn an appropriate return.

我們花費大量時間來確保我們分配的資本能夠獲得適當的回報。

If you look at South America, we know that the business environment in the region remains volatile, which is going to add uncertainty to the near-term outlook.

如果你看看南美洲，我們知道該地區的商業環境仍然不穩定，這將增加近期前景的不確定性。

But in the longer term, it is an attractive and important place to do business.

但從長遠來看，它是一個有吸引力且重要的經商場所。

We want to continue to serve our customers there.

我們希望繼續為那裡的客戶提供服務。

As you know, the previous decade we made a very good return on our investments in South America and we expect that going forward in the medium to long-term.

如您所知，過去十年我們在南美的投資取得了非常好的回報，我們預計在中長期內會繼續保持這一回報。

Dee-Ann Durbin, Associated Press.

迪安‧德賓，美聯社。

Good morning, thanks for taking the call.

早安，感謝您接聽電話。

Can you just talk briefly about China market share and where you expect that to go this year?

您能否簡單談談中國市場份額以及您預計今年的市場份額？

Thanks, Dee-Ann.

謝謝，迪安。

As we mentioned, we have a number of new products launching in new segments.

正如我們所提到的，我們在新的細分市場中推出了許多新產品。

We have two new plants coming online in China, one an assembly plant and one an engine plant, so we expect in China that to positively impact our sales.

我們在中國有兩家新工廠投產，一家是組裝廠，一家是發動機廠，因此我們預計這將對我們在中國的銷售產生積極影響。

We are not giving out a market share objective.

我們沒有給出市場佔有率目標。

Our objective usually -- as usual around the world is we are going to sell as many people want.

我們的目標通常是——像世界各地一樣，我們要賣盡可能多的人想要的東西。

We have seen our share grow pretty dramatically there over the last two or three years.

在過去的兩三年裡，我們的份額在那裡大幅增長。

As we mentioned, we had a record last year at 4.5% in China, and we expect that to grow based on some of the new segments and what we feel are compelling products for Chinese consumers.

正如我們所提到的，我們去年在中國創下了 4.5% 的記錄，我們預計這一增長將基於一些新的細分市場以及我們認為對中國消費者有吸引力的產品。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe White, Thomson Reuters.

喬懷特，湯森路透。

This is Bernie Woodall imitating Joe White.

這是伯尼·伍德爾在模仿喬·懷特。

Could you do me a favor -- and I know you've talked a little bit about Europe already, but just looking at yesterday, Sergio Marcchione on the Fiat Chrysler call said things are going to be improved in Europe over a low base and Fiat made profit in Europe in the fourth quarter.

你能幫我一個忙嗎——我知道你已經談過一些關於歐洲的事情了，但看看昨天，塞爾吉奧·馬爾基奧內(Sergio Marcchione)在菲亞特克萊斯勒電話會議上表示，歐洲的情況將會因基數較低而有所改善，菲亞特在第四季度歐洲實現盈利。

General Motors is looking to make a turn of profit next year.

通用汽車希望明年轉虧為盈。

The casual observer might look at this and say, oh, what is Ford's problem in Europe?

不經意的觀察者可能會看到這一點並說，哦，福特在歐洲的問題是什麼？

Can you address that vis-a-vis your competition there?

您能針對您的競爭對手解決這個問題嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Bernie, it's Bob and I'm sure Mark will add comments.

伯尼，我是鮑勃，我相信馬克會添加評論。

We -- again I think, if you pull apart the business, we have made great, great progress on the European transformation plan if I put Russia to the side.

我再次認為，如果你把業務分開，如果我把俄羅斯放在一邊，我們在歐洲轉型計畫上取得了巨大的進展。

You can see that in the results on a year-over-year basis when you go through the data.

當您查看數據時，您可以在逐年結果中看到這一點。

We are seeing improvement in the top line.

我們看到營收有所改善。

We gained in share.

我們的份額有所增加。

We actually held price on a year-over-year basis in a very, very competitive environment and we saw a reduction in our cost.

實際上，我們在競爭非常非常激烈的環境中逐年保持價格不變，我們看到成本有所下降。

So everything is moving in the right directions, but as I said earlier, we have made a bet on Russia.

所以一切都在朝著正確的方向發展，但正如我之前所說，我們已經在俄羅斯上下了賭注。

We think that is going to be an important market in the future.

我們認為這將是未來的重要市場。

It is going to grow.

它會成長。

It is a commodity-based economy, so it is being hurt right now for what's going on in terms of oil prices, as well as of course the geopolitical issues.

它是一個以大宗商品為基礎的經濟體，因此它現在正因油價以及地緣政治問題而受到傷害。

But we still have confidence that over time that could be an attractive market and we would like to participate in that.

但我們仍然有信心，隨著時間的推移，這可能是一個有吸引力的市場，我們願意參與其中。

I don't know to what extent some of the competitors do or don't participate in the Russian market and what effect it would have on their results, but certainly that is probably the area that has had the most impact versus what we had originally expected when we set out the transformation plan.

我不知道一些競爭對手在多大程度上參與或不參與俄羅斯市場，以及這會對他們的結果產生什麼影響，但可以肯定的是，這可能是與我們最初的影響最大的領域當我們制定轉型計劃時就預料到了。

As Mark said earlier, we have a lot of work underway to respond to a very changed environment and to make sure that as that market recovers that we can participate fully in that opportunity.

正如馬克之前所說，我們正在進行大量工作，以應對不斷變化的環境，並確保隨著市場的復甦，我們能夠充分參與這一機會。

I would just add we are going to continue to work our process.

我想補充一點，我們將繼續推進我們的流程。

And, Bernie, as you know, when you do comparisons it is important that you just look at the profiles of the various companies.

而且，伯尼，正如你所知，當你進行比較時，重要的是你只看不同公司的概況。

In our case, we are in Russia with our partners.

就我們而言，我們與合作夥伴一起在俄羅斯。

I don't know if that's the case for some of our other competitors.

我不知道我們的其他一些競爭對手是否也是這種情況。

Have to look at accounting treatments and things that were -- that may have been gone away because of bankruptcy of others that impact results.

必須考慮會計處理方法和那些可能已經消失的東西，因為其他影響結果的公司破產了。

So it's really making sure you do the appropriate kind of benchmarking between the two operations.

因此，這實際上是確保您在兩個操作之間進行適當的基準測試。

But we are going to stay focused.

但我們將保持專注。

It is an important market for us.

這對我們來說是一個重要的市場。

We've made a lot of progress.

我們已經取得了很大的進步。

We have more headwinds, a lot of it driven by Russia, and we will deal with them positively.

我們面臨更多阻力，其中很大一部分是由俄羅斯推動的，我們將積極應對。

Thank you.

謝謝。

If I could steal one more, you mentioned earlier, Bob, that by 2020 a few years ago you were looking at 4 million in sales in Russia.

如果我能再偷一個的話，鮑勃，你之前提到過，幾年前到 2020 年，你在俄羅斯的銷售量將達到 400 萬輛。

Is there any venture of what is your guidepost there for -- by the end of the decade in Russia?

到本世紀末，在俄羅斯，你的路標有什麼用處嗎？

Are you making any guess?

你有什麼猜測嗎？

I think it's probably too uncertain to make a call at this point.

我認為此時打電話可能太不確定了。

Clearly, if you look at outside third-party forecasts, those numbers have come way down.

顯然，如果你看看外部第三方的預測，這些數字已經大幅下降。

But one thing you got to be careful of with any of these more volatile economies is that when you at a high you've got to be careful you don't project that out.

但對於這些波動性較大的經濟體，你必須小心的一件事是，當你處於高位時，你必須小心，不要將其預測出來。

And when you're at a low you don't want to just say that that's where we are going to be for the next five years either, because what goes up comes down and vice versa.

當你處於低潮時，你也不想只是說這就是我們未來五年的處境，因為有漲就有跌，反之亦然。

But I think it clearly probably is a less positive forecast at this point.

但我認為目前來看這顯然可能是一個不太正面的預測。

But I think once they come out of it and our expectations are that Russia will be one of the larger industries in Europe over the mid to long-term.

但我認為，一旦他們走出困境，我們的期望是，俄羅斯將在中長期內成為歐洲較大的工業之一。

This concludes the question-and-answer session for today.

今天的問答環節到此結束。

I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. George Sharp for closing remarks.

現在我想將會議轉回喬治夏普先生致閉幕詞。

Please proceed, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

That wraps up today's presentation.

今天的演講到此結束。

We are really glad you were able to join us.

我們非常高興您能夠加入我們。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference.

感謝您參加今天的會議。

This concludes the presentation.

演示到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a wonderful day.

祝你有美好的一天。