Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Expedia 集團召開了 2023 年第四季財報電話會議,執行長 Peter Kern 宣布即將離職,並任命 Ariane Gorin 為新任執行長。

儘管在疫情期間面臨挑戰,Expedia Group 仍實現了穩健的財務業績,並對營運進行了重大調整。

該公司計劃在 2024 年專注於獲取和留住高價值客戶、全球擴張以及提高效率。

財務長表達了對新任執行長的信心,並討論了公司第四季度強勁的財務業績,收入和 EBITDA 均實現兩位數增長。

他們預計 2024 年將是另一個強勁的一年,並計劃優化成本結構並投資全球擴張。

演講者還討論了Vrbo應用程式更新的進展以及一鍵策略的成功。

他們對未來的成長和這些舉措的潛在影響表示樂觀。

演講者承認 VR 的成功,並對競爭格局充滿信心。

Expedia Group 將行銷工作重點放在核心品牌上並精簡開支。

演講者討論了 Vrbo 平台重組和一鍵策略對業務的影響,並對長期潛力表示樂觀。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Expedia Group Q4 2023 Financial Results Teleconference. My name is Lauren, and I'll be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) For opening remarks, I will turn the call over to SVP, Corporate Development and Strategy and Investor Relations, Harshit Vaish. Please go ahead.

    今天是個好日子。歡迎參加 Expedia Group 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。我叫勞倫,我將擔任今天電話的接線生。 (操作員說明)對於開幕致辭,我將把電話轉給公司發展、策略和投資者關係高級副總裁 Harshit Vaish。請繼續。

  • Harshit Vaish - SVP of Corporate Development, Strategy & IR

    Harshit Vaish - SVP of Corporate Development, Strategy & IR

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Expedia Group's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm pleased to be joined on today's call by our CEO, Peter Kern; and our CFO, Julie Whalen.

    下午好,歡迎參加 Expedia Group 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我很高興我們的執行長 Peter Kern 參加今天的電話會議;以及我們的財務長 Julie Whalen。

  • As a reminder, our commentary today will include references to certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. And unless otherwise stated, any reference to expenses exclude stock-based compensation. We will also be making forward-looking statements during the call, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.

    提醒一下,我們今天的評論將提及某些非公認會計原則措施。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最具可比性的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳已包含在我們的收益發布中。除非另有說明,否則任何提及的費用均不包括基於股票的薪酬。我們還將在電話會議期間做出前瞻性聲明,即對未來事件的預測、預測或其他聲明。這些陳述是基於目前的預期和假設,受到難以預測的風險和不確定性的影響。

  • Actual results could materially differ due to factors discussed during this call and in our most recent Forms 10-K, 10-Q and other filings with the SEC. Except as required by law, we do not undertake any responsibility to update these forward-looking statements. Our earnings release, SEC filings and a replay of today's call can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.expediagroup.com. And with that, let me turn the call over to Peter.

    由於本次電話會議以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K、10-Q 表格和其他文件中討論的因素,實際結果可能會存在重大差異。除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何責任。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.expediagroup.com 上找到我們的收益發布、SEC 文件以及今天電話會議的重播。接下來,讓我把電話轉給彼得。

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Harshit, and good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today. First of all, I just want to acknowledge the news that I will be stepping down in May as CEO after my contract ends and will be passing the baton to Ariane Gorin, who currently heads our Expedia for Business.

    謝謝哈希特,下午好,謝謝大家今天加入我們。首先,我想確認一下這樣的消息:我將於 5 月在合約結束後辭去執行長一職,並將接力棒交給目前負責 Expedia for Business 的 Ariane Gorin。

  • As many of you know, when I started this unexpected journey during COVID, travel was at a standstill. Money was flowing out of the company faster than we could replace it. And our people, our shareholders and most of the world were unsure how and when we would ever come back. Strangely, those days never really worried me. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I always believed we'd get back to life and travel would follow. While you might assume that COVID was the defining part of my tenure, in reality, we quickly saw an opportunity to use our COVID time to embark on one of the most audacious and ambitious transformations, I think, a company of our size has ever attempted.

    你們很多人都知道,當我在新冠疫情期間開始這段意想不到的旅程時,旅行陷入了停滯。資金流出公司的速度快於我們所能補充的速度。我們的員工、我們的股東和世界上大多數人都不確定我們將如何以及何時回來。奇怪的是,那些日子我從來沒有真正擔心過。也許我是個樂觀主義者,但我始終相信我們會重獲新生,旅行也會隨之而來。雖然你可能認為新冠疫情是我任期內的決定性部分,但事實上,我們很快就看到了一個機會,可以利用新冠疫情期間開展最大膽、最雄心勃勃的轉型之一,我認為,像我們這樣規模的公司曾經嘗試過。

  • It was always my hope that we would finish this massive test by now, but I'd be lying if I didn't say that was sometimes in doubt. We had many fits and starts as we took on this massive overhaul. But when you do something as bold as we were attempting, you have to be prepared to deal with some mess. And as much as anything, I'm proud that we were not afraid of the mess and we pushed through. And as the work began to accelerate in the back half of last year, I could finally see that we would, in fact, meet my timetable.

    我一直希望我們現在能完成這項大規模測試,但如果我不說有時會有疑問,那我就是說謊。在進行這項大規模的檢修時,我們經歷了許多斷斷續續的過程。但是,當您嘗試像我們嘗試的那樣大膽的事情時,您必須準備好應對一些混亂。最重要的是,我很自豪我們不害怕混亂,我們堅持了下來。隨著去年下半年工作開始加速,我終於可以看到我們實際上能夠滿足我的時間表。

  • Over the last 4 years, we built a tremendous team, who, in turn, accomplished amazing things. I have to say that what started in an unlikely and difficult way turned out to be one of the most compelling and challenging opportunities of my career. Now I'm not going anywhere yet, and I intend to sprint through the finish line on the way out. Among my important tasks between now and then is ensuring an absolutely seamless transition to Ariane and making sure none of our team misses a beat.

    在過去的四年裡,我們建立了一支強大的團隊,他們又取得了令人驚嘆的成就。我必須說,以一種不太可能且困難的方式開始的事情,後來卻成為我職業生涯中最引人注目和最具挑戰性的機會之一。現在我哪裡也不去,打算在出去時衝刺衝過終​​點線。從現在到那時,我的重要任務之一是確保絕對無縫地過渡到阿麗亞娜,並確保我們的團隊沒有一個人錯過任何一個節拍。

  • I just want to say that I've had the pleasure of working with Ariane closely for the last 4 years, and I believe she is a terrific choice to take the company forward and build on what we have created. She is a seasoned leader with a very successful track record at Expedia Group, including most recently as head of our market-leading B2B business. I look forward to working with Ariane over the next few months, and I will not be going far as I return to my perch as Vice Chairman.

    我只想說,在過去的 4 年裡,我很高興與 Ariane 密切合作,我相信她是帶領公司前進並在我們所創造的基礎上再接再厲的絕佳選擇。她是一位經驗豐富的領導者,在 Expedia Group 擁有非常成功的業績記錄,包括最近擔任我們市場領先的 B2B 業務的負責人。我期待在接下來的幾個月裡與阿麗亞娜一起工作,當我重新擔任副主席時,我不會走得太遠。

  • Now that I've addressed that, let's move on to our results. I was generally very pleased with our performance in '23. We met our guidance despite what was a year of tremendous change. It is really difficult to fully appreciate the breadth of change and the volatility that such change can create. We've discussed this many times. But when you have to willingly take steps backward to go forward, you create a lot of inherent unpredictability. And yet despite that, we delivered and landed the year.

    現在我已經解決了這個問題,讓我們繼續討論我們的結果。總的來說,我對我們 23 年的表現非常滿意。儘管這一年發生了巨大變化,但我們還是達到了預期目標。要完全理解變革的廣度以及這種變革可能帶來的波動性確實很困難。我們已經討論過很多次了。但當你必須自願後退一步才能前進時,你就會產生許多固有的不可預測性。儘管如此,我們還是完成了這一年的任務。

  • In the fourth quarter, we saw strong revenue and EBITDA performance. But we did see some softness in gross bookings driven primarily by air, which in turn was largely driven by a reduction in average ticket prices. As you all know, air does not impact revenue or profitability very much. But it does have an outsized impact on our overall gross bookings. While air has been showing some signs of macro softening, we continue to improve our air product with new AI-driven features and pricing capabilities. And like many areas of our business, we see significant opportunity to grow regardless of any macro headwinds.

    第四季度,我們看到了強勁的營收和 EBITDA 表現。但我們確實看到主要由航空推動的總預訂量出現一些疲軟,而這主要是由平均機票價格的下降所推動的。眾所周知,空氣對收入或獲利能力的影響不大。但這確實對我們的總預訂量產生了巨大影響。雖然空氣已經顯示出一些宏觀疲軟的跡象,但我們繼續透過新的人工智慧驅動功能和定價能力來改進我們的空氣產品。與我們業務的許多領域一樣,無論宏觀阻力如何,我們都看到了巨大的成長機會。

  • Our lodging business held up very well and had yet another record quarter with our hotel gross bookings growing 13% year-over-year. Vrbo finished its planned front-end migration in Q4 and suffered expected conversion degradation. But it now has more tests running than ever in its history, and we are clawing back conversion at a breakneck pace. We also cut back last year on Vrbo marketing in concert with the expected conversion degradation but are now really excited about our new brand work that is designed to punch our main competitor squarely in the nose, and we are leaning back into spend.

    我們的住宿業務表現良好,並再創歷史新高,飯店總預訂量年增 13%。 Vrbo 在第四季度完成了計劃的前端遷移,並遭遇了預期的轉換退化。但現在它運行的測試比歷史上任何時候都多,而且我們正在以極快的速度恢復轉換。去年我們也削減了 Vrbo 行銷,以應對預期的轉換率下降,但現在我們對我們的新品牌工作感到非常興奮,該工作旨在直接打擊我們主要競爭對手的鼻子,我們正在重新投入支出。

  • There's a bit of lag effect as we ramp back up, but we are excited to get Vrbo back on offense with the product improving every day, the impact from improved and increased marketing and, of course, our secret weapon in One Key, whose effect will only continue to build. We did an awful lot in '23 from the launch of One Key to the completion of the Vrbo migration from the plumbing of machine learning and AI into more and more of our customer experience to the launch of ChatGPT-assisted trip planning. But more important than any win in '23 is the sheer magnitude of change we have driven since we embarked on our transformation journey at the beginning of 2020.

    當我們恢復速度時,會有一點滯後效應,但我們很高興讓 Vrbo 重新進攻,產品每天都在改進,營銷改進和增加的影響,當然還有我們的秘密武器“一鍵”,其效果只會繼續建設。我們在 23 年做了很多工作,從推出 One Key 到完成 Vrbo 遷移,從機器學習和人工智慧的管道到越來越多的客戶體驗,再到推出 ChatGPT 輔助的旅行計劃。但比 23 年的任何勝利更重要的是,自 2020 年初踏上轉型之旅以來,我們所推動的巨大變革。

  • Over this period, we rationalized investments in over 20 brands to 3 or fewer in every region. We eliminated dependency on 76 different agencies around the globe and instead built an entire full-service marketing, creative and media-buying team internally. We consolidated all performance marketing into one group with unified data and tools, allowing us to optimize across brands and bring programmatic approaches to everything we do in metasearch, social, SEO and everywhere else. And we fundamentally shifted the business from transactional web arbitrage to app first, focused on acquiring and retaining the customers with the highest LTV and return on investment.

    在此期間,我們將每個地區 20 多個品牌的投資合理化為 3 個或更少。我們消除了對全球 76 家不同代理商的依賴,而是在內部建立了一個完整的全方位服務行銷、創意和媒體購買團隊。我們透過統一的數據和工具將所有效果行銷整合到一組中,使我們能夠跨品牌進行優化,並將程序化方法引入我們在元搜尋、社交、搜尋引擎優化和其他領域所做的一切中。我們從根本上將業務從交易性網路套利轉向應用程式優先,專注於獲取和留住具有最高 LTV 和投資回報率的客戶。

  • On the tech side, we decommissioned 17 CRM systems and built one universal messaging platform linking all brands. We went from 7 different loyalty stacks to One Key. We consolidated from 13 machine learning platforms and 4 experimentation platforms to one. We converted 300 million customer data profiles into one common identity platform. We have meaningfully reduced the number of developer tools and optimized our IT footprint. And most importantly, all our brands are now on a single front-end stack with a unified test-and-learn platform that gives us the ability to rapidly launch tests and features across brands, platforms and geos.

    在科技方面,我們停用了 17 個 CRM 系統,並建立了一個連接所有品牌的通用訊息平台。我們從 7 種不同的忠誠度堆疊改為「一鍵」。我們將 13 個機器學習平台和 4 個實驗平台合併為 1 個。我們將 3 億客戶資料檔案轉換為一個通用身分平台。我們有意義地減少了開發人員工具的數量並優化了我們的 IT 足跡。最重要的是,我們所有的品牌現在都位於一個前端堆疊上,具有統一的測試和學習平台,使我們能夠跨品牌、平台和地理位置快速啟動測試和功能。

  • It is hard to fully conceptualize how much we have changed, but perhaps one simple way is to double-click on how all these elements allow us to massively accelerate our test-and-learn capability and drive faster feature deployment and better performance in the product. Our unified front end now allows us to deploy features around the globe and on any brand at a pace we could not contemplate just a couple of years ago. What used to take months, even years, now takes weeks and sometimes just days. Our recent launch of cars on Hotels.com in the U.S. is a perfect example of something that never made the cut list because of the massive engineering lift. But post unifying the front-end stacks, it took literally weeks to deploy.

    很難完全概念化我們改變了多少,但也許一種簡單的方法是雙擊所有這些元素如何使我們能夠大規模加速我們的測試和學習能力並推動更快的功能部署和更好的產品性能。現在,我們的統一前端使我們能夠以幾年前無法想像的速度在全球範圍內和任何品牌上部署功能。過去需要幾個月甚至幾年的時間,現在只需要幾週甚至幾天。我們最近在美國 Hotels.com 上推出的汽車就是一個完美的例子,說明由於工程量巨大而從未進入淘汰名單的汽車。但在統一前端堆疊後,部署實際上花了幾週。

  • That same unified front end allows us to massively increase the breadth and impact of our test-and-learns while our single test environment, along with ML and AI woven throughout the customer experience, now allow us to run many multiples of the tests we used to and call them much faster. The combination of which will allow us to effectively 8x our test-and-learn impact in 2024. It cannot be stated strongly enough. We are just at a completely different place technologically, and the effects we have seen so far are only just scratching the surface of what is possible.

    同樣的統一前端使我們能夠大幅增加測試和學習的廣度和影響力,而我們的單一測試環境以及貫穿整個客戶體驗的機器學習和人工智慧,現在允許我們運行我們所使用的測試的多個倍數更快地打電話給他們。這一切的結合將使我們能夠在 2024 年有效地將我們的測驗和學習影響力提高 8 倍。這一點怎麼形容都不為過。我們只是在技術上處於一個完全不同的地方,到目前為止我們所看到的效果只是觸及了可能的表面。

  • And while there are endless achievements to be proud of in our transformation, it is equally remarkable that even while swapping out our engine mid-flight, we were able to deliver consistently solid financial performance. We grew our business throughout our transformation, notably reaching record levels of lodging gross bookings and revenue despite having sold off and shuttered a number of businesses along the way. Our continued operating discipline has driven EBITDA margins to the highest levels in over a decade. We have used our strong free cash flow to aggressively buy back our stock at attractive prices. And as a result, our share count today is down to 2015 levels.

    儘管我們在轉型過程中取得了無數值得自豪的成就,但同樣值得注意的是,即使在飛行途中更換了發動機,我們仍然能夠提供始終如一的穩健財務業績。我們在整個轉型過程中不斷發展業務,特別是儘管在此過程中出售和關閉了許多業務,但住宿總預訂量和收入仍達到了創紀錄的水平。我們持續的經營紀律已將 EBITDA 利潤率推至十多年來的最高水準。我們利用強大的自由現金流以有吸引力的價格積極回購我們的股票。因此,我們今天的股票數量下降至 2015 年的水平。

  • We have closed over 100 office locations and we have 30% fewer heads than our 2019 peak. And meaningfully, we have gone from approximately 30% of people working in product and tech in 2019 to 50% today. Again, we are at a truly different place as a company as we launch into '24, which does not mean that it's all just linear improvement from here. That learn in test-and-learn is a big part of our journey, and we will still get things wrong in our tireless effort to improve the customer experience. But we can afford to get a lot more wrong as we, in fact, get a lot more right. Ultimately, more at bats, the sheer power of going fast and simplifying our ability to innovate is what puts us in a position to once again lead our industry technologically for the next decade.

    我們已經關閉了 100 多個辦公地點,員工人數比 2019 年高峰期減少了 30%。有意義的是,我們從事產品和技術工作的人員從 2019 年的約 30% 增加到了今天的 50%。再說一遍,隨著我們進入 24 年,我們作為一家公司正處於一個真正不同的階段,這並不意味著這一切都只是從這裡開始的線性改進。在測驗和學習中學習是我們旅程的重要組成部分,在我們不懈地努力改善客戶體驗的過程中,我們仍然會犯錯。但事實上,我們能做更多正確的事,因此我們可以承擔更多錯誤。最終,更重要的是,快速發展和簡化創新能力的絕對力量使我們能夠在未來十年再次引領我們的產業技術。

  • So what does all that mean for 2024? On a macro level, we expect travel demand to remain relatively healthy. But we expect growth rates across the world to decelerate, especially early in the year as we lap the post-Omicron tailwinds we saw last year. We are still expecting much faster growth internationally outside North America and Western Europe that we expect the gap to continue closing. We may also see some softness in prices across categories. This past quarter, both hotel and vacation rental ADRs grew very slightly, but the mix effects led to overall lodging ADRs declining year-over-year.

    那麼這一切對 2024 年又意味著什麼?宏觀層面,我們預期出行需求將保持相對健康。但我們預計全球成長率將會放緩,尤其是在今年年初,因為我們經歷了去年看到的 Omicron 在後時代的順風車。我們仍然預計北美和西歐以外的國際市場將出現更快的成長,我們預計差距將繼續縮小。我們也可能會看到各個類別的價格出現一些疲軟。上個季度,飯店和度假租賃的 ADR 均略有成長,但混合效應導致整體住宿 ADR 年減。

  • And as I mentioned earlier, air ticket prices have declined, particularly in the U.S. and we are seeing some continued pressure on car rental rates. Against this backdrop though, we are well positioned to go back on offense, gain share against competition, and ultimately grow our top and bottom line meaningfully this year. Our strategy will remain largely unchanged, but we can finally stop doing surgery on ourselves and instead execute without the numerous distractions we have faced in recent years. We will be laser focused on 5 strategic priorities, which broadly translate to all parts of our business.

    正如我之前提到的,機票價格已經下降,尤其是在美國,我們看到汽車租賃費率持續面臨壓力。不過,在這種背景下,我們處於有利位置,可以重新進攻,在競爭中贏得份額,並最終在今年有意義地提高我們的收入和利潤。我們的策略將基本保持不變,但我們最終可以停止對自己做手術,而是在沒有近年來面臨的眾多幹擾的情況下執行。我們將重點放在 5 個策略重點,這些策略重點廣泛應用於我們業務的所有部分。

  • First, we will continue our focus on acquiring and retaining high-ROI travelers. We've become much sharper about measuring customer lifetime value and targeting who to go after and which channels, with a greatly improved product driven by the latest ML and AI capabilities and One Key, which now has over 100 million members. We will continue to drive greater retention, repeat and direct business, all of which underpins our shift towards more loyalty in app members. In fact, we ended the year with our highest ever percentage of business coming from the app, up nearly 600 basis points year-over-year. We will be scaling One Key internationally this year and expect to see our mix of app members continue to increase in those markets. With better customer targeting, constantly improving with stickier AI-driven products, and One Key, we feel really good about continuing to build momentum and value in our member roles.

    首先,我們將繼續專注於獲取和留住高投資報酬率的旅客。在最新的機器學習和人工智慧功能以及目前擁有超過1 億會員的One Key 的驅動下,我們的產品得到了極大的改進,我們在衡量客戶終身價值、確定目標客戶和管道方面變得更加敏銳。我們將繼續推動更高的保留率、重複率和直接業務,所有這些都支持我們向應用程式會員提高忠誠度的轉變。事實上,我們在今年年底實現了有史以來最高的來自該應用程式的業務比例,同比增長了近 600 個基點。今年我們將在國際範圍內擴展“一鍵”,並期望看到我們的應用程式成員數量在這些市場中繼續增加。憑藉更好的客戶定位、透過更具黏性的人工智慧驅動產品和「一鍵」不斷改進,我們對繼續在我們的會員角色中建立動力和價值感到非常高興。

  • Our second priority will be to increase our share of wallet with our travelers and partners. Again, with a product that uses AI and ML to predict the consumer's best next action in order to sell complementary items, be it in the booking flow, post booking and in CRM communications. Our core experience will continue to drive more items and more dollars into the consumer's basket. We will also drive more cross-brand and cross-product engagement through One Key, which enables cross-earn and redemption across all our key brands and encourages consumers to stay in our ecosystem for all their travel needs. We are already seeing early signs of this with an increasing number of customers who cross-shop our brands in the U.S. since the launch of One Key. And as we continue to roll out One Key outside the U.S. and now have the ability to roll out new lines of business on different brands, we expect all of these moves to allow us to capture more wallet share from our consumers.

    我們的第二個優先事項是增加我們在旅行者和合作夥伴中的錢包份額。同樣,該產品使用人工智慧和機器學習來預測消費者的最佳下一步行動,以便銷售補充商品,無論是在預訂流程、預訂後還是在 CRM 通訊中。我們的核心經驗將繼續推動更多的商品和更多的錢進入消費者的購物籃。我們還將透過「一鍵」推動更多的跨品牌和跨產品參與,從而實現我們所有主要品牌的交叉賺取和兌換,並鼓勵消費者留在我們的生態系統中以滿足他們的所有旅行需求。自從「一鍵」推出以來,我們已經看到了這一點的早期跡象,越來越多的客戶在美國交叉購買我們的品牌。隨著我們繼續在美國以外推出“一鍵”,並且現在有能力在不同品牌上推出新業務線,我們預計所有這些舉措將使我們能夠從消費者那裡獲得更多的錢包份額。

  • Our third priority will be to accelerate our global market expansion. We've talked before about how we retrenched back to the U.S. during the pandemic while we were overhauling our tech platform and marketing model. We pulled back in certain countries where we did not have the right product market fit and have been spending more but losing share. Now after changing virtually everything from how we market to how we retain customers to our entire product experience, we have what it takes to go back on offense. In the back half of '23, we were able to hold or build share in most of our core markets. And now we have the opportunity to be more aggressive. In '24, you will see us spend up in a number of markets to reclaim real share where we believe we have the right to win.

    我們的第三個優先事項將是加速我們的全球市場擴張。我們之前曾討論過在大流行期間我們如何在徹底改革我們的技術平台和行銷模式的同時縮減對美國的投資。我們在某些​​國家撤退了,因為這些國家的產品不適合市場,我們支出更多,但份額卻在下降。現在,從我們的行銷方式到我們留住客戶的方式,再到我們的整個產品體驗,幾乎所有方面都發生了變化,我們有能力反擊。 23 年下半年,我們能夠在大部分核心市場維持或建立份額。現在我們有機會變得更加積極主動。在 24 年,你會看到我們在許多市場上投入巨資,以奪回我們認為有權利獲勝的真正份額。

  • Our fourth priority will be to continue cementing our leadership in the B2B segment. Revenue in this segment grew a stellar 33% in 2023 versus 2022. While it benefited from the APAC reopening and we expect those geo tailwinds to moderate somewhat this year, we are still expecting very strong growth given our differentiated capabilities and a huge TAM to still penetrate. As I have explained before, our B2B business benefits from all the work we have done in product and technology to win in B2C, along with all the B2B-specific innovations we have rolled out over the last few years. We are seeing a strong pipeline of new customers globally, and we continue to find ways to gain wallet share in our accounts. And beyond just offering supply, we have achieved good early results in externalizing components of our technology to our partners as well. Overall, I'm very enthusiastic about reinforcing our leadership in powering the travel industry.

    我們的第四個優先事項是繼續鞏固我們在 B2B 領域的領導地位。與2022 年相比,2023 年該細分市場的收入增長了33%。雖然它受益於亞太地區的重新開放,而且我們預計這些地理順風今年會有所緩和,但鑑於我們的差異化能力和巨大的TAM 仍將保持強勁成長,我們仍預計會出現非常強勁的成長。穿透。正如我之前所解釋的,我們的 B2B 業務受益於我們為贏得 B2C 而在產品和技術方面所做的所有工作,以及我們在過去幾年推出的所有 B2B 特定創新。我們在全球範圍內看到了強大的新客戶管道,並且我們繼續尋找方法來獲得我們帳戶中的錢包份額。除了提供供應之外,我們在將技術組件外部化給合作夥伴方面也取得了良好的早期成果。總的來說,我非常熱衷於加強我們在推動旅遊業方面的領導地位。

  • Our fifth strategic priority will be to drive efficiency and effectiveness across our business. As I mentioned, we have grown our EBITDA margins to their highest levels in a decade, growing over 300 basis points since 2019. But we are capable of much more. All of our transformation work was not only to enhance our consumer experience, but also to allow us to do more with less. We have significant opportunity to run more efficiently across the company, to eliminate redundant systems, to keep optimizing in the cloud, and utilize the latest productivity capabilities from AI. In addition, we will keep leveraging our technology leadership to find opportunities for decreasing costs while increasing customer experience. The work we have done in improving our customer service operations is a great case study. By building better technology and self-service tools, we have both improved our NPS and created massive efficiencies, all while maintaining our best-in-class service. And generative AI will only accelerate this trend.

    我們的第五個策略重點是提高整個業務的效率和效益。正如我所提到的,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率已升至十年來的最高水平,自 2019 年以來增長了 300 多個基點。但我們的能力遠不止於此。我們所有的轉型工作不僅是為了提升消費者體驗,也是為了讓我們事半功倍。我們有很大的機會在整個公司內更有效率地運行,消除冗餘系統,在雲端中持續優化,並利用人工智慧的最新生產力能力。此外,我們將繼續利用我們的技術領先地位來尋找降低成本的機會,同時提高客戶體驗。我們在改善客戶服務營運方面所做的工作是一個很好的案例研究。透過建立更好的技術和自助服務工具,我們提高了 NPS 並大幅提高了效率,同時保持了一流的服務。而生成式人工智慧只會加速這一趨勢。

  • So in closing, I'm incredibly pleased and proud of everything we have accomplished over the last few years, and I'm really excited about our path forward. Thanks to our massive transformation, we are now a very different company than we were 4 years ago. We are set up to out-innovate our competition for the next decade and efficiently deliver the best experiences for our customers and partners. And if we do that, the business and shareholder returns will take care of itself.

    最後,我對我們過去幾年所取得的成就感到非常高興和自豪,我對我們前進的道路感到非常興奮。由於我們的大規模轉型,我們現在是一家與 4 年前截然不同的公司。我們準備在未來十年透過創新超越競爭對手,並有效率地為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供最佳體驗。如果我們這樣做,業務和股東回報就會水到渠成。

  • While you have to kick me around for one more earnings cycle, let me just say that in addition to the gratitude I feel for the team and all that we have done to foster our collective interest, I'm also grateful to our Chairman, our Board and our shareholders for supporting the ambition we had and helping us get to this point. And with that, I will hand it over to Julie.

    雖然你必須再給我一個盈利週期,但我只想說,除了我對團隊以及我們為促進集體利益所做的一切表示感謝之外,我還感謝我們的董事長、董事會和我們的股東支持我們的雄心壯志並幫助我們實現這一點。這樣,我就把它交給朱莉了。

  • Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

    Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

  • Thanks, Peter, and hello, everyone. Before I get into our financials, I do want to take a moment to thank Peter and to express my confidence in Ariane as our new CEO from May. I've had the pleasure of knowing Peter since I joined Expedia Group's Board in 2019 and, of course, in a more detailed manner since assuming my role as CFO in 2022. Throughout this journey, Peter has done an amazing job navigating us through the pandemic, driving our massive business transformation, and setting us up for a very successful future. I am so thankful to have had the opportunity to work for Peter. He will be missed, but I am glad he'll continue to support Expedia Group through his ongoing role on our Board as Vice Chairman.

    謝謝彼得,大家好。在介紹我們的財務狀況之前,我確實想花點時間感謝 Peter,並表達我對 Ariane 作為我們 5 月份新任執行長的信心。自 2019 年加入 Expedia 集團董事會以來,我很高興認識 Peter,當然,自 2022 年擔任財務長以來,我對 Peter 的認識也更加深入。在整個旅程中,Peter 出色地帶領我們完成了整個過程。大流行,推動了我們大規模的業務轉型,並為我們創造了一個非常成功的未來。我非常感謝有機會為彼得工作。我們會懷念他,但我很高興他將繼續擔任我們董事會的副主席,並繼續支持 Expedia 集團。

  • At the same time, I look forward to working alongside Ariane as she assumes her new role as CEO this May. Ariane and I have partnered closely together since I first came to Expedia Group. She's an accomplished operator who has been on our leadership team for many years, and it will be great to have someone so familiar with our business and our ecosystem lead us into this next exciting phase for our company.

    同時,我期待在阿麗亞娜今年五月就任執行長的新職位時與她一起工作。自從我第一次加入 Expedia Group 以來,Ariane 和我就一直密切合作。她是一位經驗豐富的運營商,在我們的領導團隊中工作多年,如果有一位如此熟悉我們的業務和生態系統的人帶領我們進入公司的下一個激動人心的階段,那就太好了。

  • And now let's turn to the financials. Our fourth quarter results once again reflect another quarter of accelerating performance on the top and bottom line, with revenue and EBITDA growing double digits to record levels. This continued strong quarterly performance resulted in full year results at the highest levels we have ever seen across lodging bookings and overall revenue and EBITDA.

    現在讓我們轉向財務狀況。我們第四季的業績再次反映出營收和利潤的業績又一個季度加速成長,營收和 EBITDA 成長兩位數,達到創紀錄的水平。持續強勁的季度業績使得全年業績在住宿預訂、整體收入和 EBITDA 方面達到了我們所見過的最高水平。

  • For full year 2023, we delivered over $104 billion in total gross bookings, growing 10% versus last year, including almost $74 billion in lodging bookings growing 11%, with the hotel business growing even faster at 18%. We drove $12.8 billion of revenue, growing 10%, and we also generated $2.7 billion of EBITDA with an EBITDA margin of 21%, which grew faster than revenue at 14% and resulted in year-over-year margin expansion of almost 75 basis points.

    2023 年全年,我們的總預訂量超過 1,040 億美元,比去年增長 10%,其中住宿預訂量近 740 億美元,增長 11%,其中酒店業務增長更快,達到 18%。我們實現了 128 億美元的收入,成長了 10%,也產生了 27 億美元的 EBITDA,EBITDA 利潤率為 21%,成長速度快於營收 14%,導致利潤率年增了近 75 個基點。

  • In addition, our B2C business saw a meaningful sequential acceleration in year-over-year revenue growth in the back half of the year and generated marketing leverage for the full year. And our B2B business went from strength to strength, having its most successful year in our history with both top and bottom line growth of over 33%. And this overall strong financial performance resulted in us meeting our full year guidance of double-digit top line growth with margin expansion.

    此外,我們的 B2C 業務下半年營收年增率顯著加快,並為全年帶來了行銷槓桿。我們的 B2B 業務不斷壯大,迎來了我們歷史上最成功的一年,營收和利潤成長超過 33%。整體強勁的財務業績使我們實現了兩位數營收成長和利潤率擴張的全年指引。

  • Now I will discuss more of the details regarding our fourth quarter results. Total gross bookings of $21.7 billion were up 6% versus last year. Gross bookings were impacted by some pressure in our air bookings in the quarter, primarily driven by lower average ticket prices as more capacity came online as well as overall gross bookings pressure at the beginning of the quarter from the crisis in the Middle East as we called out on our last quarter's earnings call. Gross bookings for lodging, our largest business, had another record quarter, growing 8%, relatively in line with our third quarter growth rate. And we saw even faster growth in our hotel business at 13%. We also continued to gain or maintain share in our hotel business across our key markets around the world, consistent with last quarter.

    現在我將討論有關我們第四季業績的更多細節。總預訂總額為 217 億美元,比去年增加 6%。總預訂量受到本季航空預訂壓力的影響,主要是由於運力增加導致平均機票價格下降,以及本季初中東危機造成的總體總預訂量壓力。在我們上個季度的財報電話會議上。我們最大的業務住宿總預訂量再次創下季度紀錄,成長 8%,與我們第三季的成長率相對一致。我們的酒店業務成長更快,達到 13%。我們也繼續在全球主要市場的酒店業務中獲得或維持份額,與上季一致。

  • Moving to the key financial metrics in the P&L, starting with total revenue. Revenue of $2.9 billion was the highest on record and grew 10% versus last year. This was an approximate 160 basis point acceleration from the third quarter, driven by both our B2C and B2B segments. Revenue growth is primarily driven by the continued performance of lodging, which grew 14%.

    轉向損益表中的關鍵財務指標,從總收入開始。營收達到 29 億美元,創歷史新高,比去年成長 10%。在我們的 B2C 和 B2B 部門的推動下,這一速度較第三季增長了約 160 個基點。收入成長主要由住宿業的持續表現推動,成長了 14%。

  • Total revenue margin also increased by approximately 55 basis points versus last year, primarily driven by the continued mix to lodging, which has higher margins. Cost of sales was $336 million for the quarter and $72 million or 17% lower than last year which, combined with our strong top line growth, drove approximately 390 basis points of leverage as a percentage of revenue versus last year. We were pleased to see that our ongoing initiatives to deliver an improved customer experience and increased automation are resulting in continued operating efficiencies, resulting in lower cost year-over-year despite higher top line growth.

    總收入利潤率也比去年增加了約 55 個基點,這主要是由於利潤率較高的住宿業的持續混合。本季銷售成本為 3.36 億美元,比去年降低 7,200 萬美元,即 17%,加上我們強勁的營收成長,槓桿率佔收入的百分比比去年提高了約 390 個基點。我們很高興地看到,我們持續採取的改善客戶體驗和提高自動化的措施正在持續提高營運效率,儘管收入成長較高,但成本卻逐年降低。

  • Direct sales and marketing expense in the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion, which was up 14% versus last year largely due to an increase in commissions in our B2B business to support its ongoing strong revenue growth of 28% year-over-year. As we have stated previously, commissions paid to our B2B partners are in our direct sales and marketing line and are more expensive as a percentage of revenue than our B2C business. However, because they are generally paid on a stayed basis to contractually agreed upon percentages, the returns are more guaranteed and immediate.

    第四季的直接銷售和行銷費用為 14 億美元,比去年增長 14%,這主要是由於我們的 B2B 業務佣金增加,以支持其持續強勁的收入同比增長 28%。正如我們之前所說,支付給 B2B 合作夥伴的佣金屬於我們的直接銷售和行銷業務,佔收入的百分比比我們的 B2C 業務更昂貴。然而,由於他們通常按合約約定的百分比按中止支付,因此回報更有保障且更直接。

  • In our B2C business, our marketing spend as a percentage of gross bookings was flat. Overhead expenses were $654 million, an increase of $64 million versus last year or 11%. As we have stated previously, this increase is a result of our investment in talent across our product and technology teams to support our strategic initiatives. With our strong revenue performance and expense discipline, with expenses overall growing slower than revenue, we delivered record EBITDA of $532 million, which was up 19% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 18.5%, expanding over 130 basis points year-over-year.

    在我們的 B2C 業務中,我們的行銷支出佔總預訂量的百分比持平。管理費用為 6.54 億美元,比去年增加 6,400 萬美元,即 11%。正如我們之前所說,這一成長是我們對產品和技術團隊人才進行投資的結果,以支持我們的策略性舉措。憑藉我們強勁的收入表現和費用紀律,在費用整體增長慢於收入的情況下,我們實現了創紀錄的 EBITDA 5.32 億美元,同比增長 19%,EBITDA 利潤率為 18.5%,同比增長超過 130 個基點-同比。

  • Both EBITDA growth and margin expansion accelerated sequentially from the third quarter. This strong earnings growth enabled us to generate another year of robust free cash flow at $1.8 billion. Free cash flow year-over-year would have been even higher but was impacted by timing changes within working capital. Last year, as the business emerged from the pandemic, we saw meaningful year-over-year increases in our deferred merchant bookings balance, which has since normalized this year. These strong free cash flow levels enabled us to complete our largest ever level of share repurchases at $2 billion or over 19 million shares.

    EBITDA 成長和利潤率擴張均較第三季連續加速。強勁的獲利成長使我們又一年實現了 18 億美元的強勁自由現金流。自由現金流年會更高,但受到營運資金時間變動的影響。去年,隨著業務擺脫疫情影響,我們的延期商家預訂餘額較去年同期大幅成長,今年以來已正常化。這些強勁的自由現金流水準使我們能夠完成有史以來規模最大的股票回購,回購金額為 20 億美元,即超過 1,900 萬股。

  • Moving on to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with strong liquidity of $6.8 billion driven by our unrestricted cash balance of $4.2 billion and our undrawn revolving line of credit of $2.5 billion, which provides us with plenty of cash to operate the business. Our debt level remains at approximately $6.3 billion with an average cost at only 3.7%. Our gross leverage ratio, at a further reduced 2.3x, continues to make progress towards our target gross leverage ratio of 2x, driven by our ongoing strong EBITDA growth.

    繼續我們的資產負債表。本季結束時,我們的流動性強勁,達到68 億美元,這得益於我們42 億美元的無限現金餘額和25 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度,這為我們營運業務提供了充足的現金。我們的債務水準仍維持在約 63 億美元,平均成本僅 3.7%。在我們持續強勁的 EBITDA 成長的推動下,我們的總槓桿率進一步降低至 2.3 倍,並繼續朝著 2 倍的總槓桿率目標取得進展。

  • As we look ahead towards 2024, we anticipate that market growth rates will moderate in '24, given the absence of COVID-driven tailwinds that were prominent last year. But despite this backdrop, given the operational changes we have made to our business over the last couple of years, we expect to have another strong year with top line year-over-year growth relatively in line with what we saw in 2023. On the bottom line, we believe we have further room to optimize our cost structure and therefore, improve margins. We expect to continue to drive operating efficiencies and cost of sales across our customer support and other operations.

    展望 2024 年,我們預計,鑑於去年未出現由新冠疫情驅動的強勁利好因素,我們預計 2024 年市場成長率將放緩。但儘管如此,考慮到過去幾年我們對業務進行的營運變革,我們預計將迎來又一個強勁的一年,營收同比增長與 2023 年的情況相對一致。最重要的是,我們相信我們還有進一步優化成本結構的空間,進而提高利潤率。我們希望繼續提高客戶支援和其他業務的營運效率和銷售成本。

  • And with overhead expenses, as we have said, we expect to drive savings this year as we deprecate systems and redeploy resources now that the bulk of our re-platforming is in the rearview mirror. These efficiencies and overhead will also translate over to reduced CapEx levels. Overall, we are taking a very close look at streamlining our cost structure to align with the next phase of our journey. And based on our initial estimates, these actions are expected to result in approximately $80 million to $100 million in onetime GAAP expenses on the year, heavily weighted towards the first quarter. We are still finalizing the details, but we expect to have more to share this quarter.

    正如我們所說,隨著管理費用的增加,我們預計今年將節省開支,因為我們將棄用系統並重新部署資源,因為我們的大部分重新平台都已成為過去。這些效率和開銷也將轉化為資本支出水準的降低。總體而言,我們正在密切關注簡化成本結構,以適應下一階段的發展。根據我們的初步估計,這些行動預計將導致今年一次性 GAAP 費用約為 8,000 萬至 1 億美元,其中主要集中在第一季。我們仍在敲定細節,但我們預計本季將分享更多資訊。

  • As far as marketing, we are investing behind our global expansion efforts to reignite our international growth and drive further market share gains. This will naturally drive some shorter-term pressure on marketing efficiency for our B2C business. But despite this incremental investment, we expect to still drive overall B2C marketing leverage on the year as a percentage of gross bookings As we continue to improve direct transactions, retention and conversion with more scale.

    就行銷而言,我們正在投資支持我們的全球擴張努力,以重振我們的國際成長並推動進一步的市場份額成長。這自然會為我們的 B2C 業務行銷效率帶來一些短期壓力。但儘管有這些增量投資,隨著我們繼續以更大的規模改善直接交易、保留率和轉換率,我們預計仍將推動今年整體 B2C 行銷槓桿佔總預訂量的百分比。

  • Putting this all together, we expect to deliver another record year of EBITDA with EBITDA margin expansion at levels relatively similar to what we saw in 2023. This EBITDA growth and some possible early repayment of debt should enable us to hit our target leverage ratio of approximately 2x this year. We also expect this EBITDA growth, combined with the benefit we expect to see from the CapEx efficiencies I mentioned earlier, to drive strong free cash flow growth. And we aim to leverage the strong free cash flow to further maximize shareholder returns.

    綜上所述,我們預期EBITDA 將再創歷史新高,EBITDA 利潤率擴張的水平與2023 年的水平相對相似。這種EBITDA 成長和一些可能的提前償還債務應該使我們能夠達到約100% 的目標槓桿率。今年 2 倍。我們也預期 EBITDA 的成長,加上我們先前提到的資本支出效率所帶來的好處,將推動自由現金流的強勁成長。我們的目標是利用強勁的自由現金流進一步最大化股東回報。

  • While our stock price has increased in recent months, we continue to believe that it remains undervalued and does not reflect our expected long-term performance of the business. As such, we will utilize the strong cash-generating power of our business and our new $5 billion share repurchase authorization announced last quarter to continue buying back our stock opportunistically.

    儘管我們的股價近幾個月有所上漲,但我們仍然認為它仍然被低估,並且不能反映我們預期的業務長期業績。因此,我們將利用我們業務強大的現金產生能力以及上季度宣布的新的 50 億美元股票回購授權,繼續擇機回購我們的股票。

  • As it pertains to our first quarter outlook, last year, our first quarter was very strong. And we, therefore, are facing some tough comps in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, to start the year, we have seen continued pressure in air due to reduced pricing levels from increased capacity and the grounding of the Boeing fleet as well as some pressure in our Vrbo brand, as Peter alluded to earlier.

    就我們第一季的前景而言,去年我們的第一季非常強勁。因此,我們在 2024 年第一季面臨著一些艱難的競爭。此外,年初,由於運力增加和波音機隊停飛以及一些航空公司的停飛導致價格水平下降,我們看到航空業持續面臨壓力。正如彼得之前提到的,我們的Vrbo 品牌面臨壓力。

  • As a result, we expect our gross bookings growth in the first quarter to be in the low to mid-single digits and our revenue growth to be in the mid-single digits. In addition, we expect some EBITDA margin compression consistent with the levels we saw in Q1 last year. As we move throughout the year, we expect our growth rates will increase due to conversion gains from product improvements, the continued stacking of high-ROI customers accelerated further by momentum building in our One Key loyalty program, and higher traction in our faster-growing global markets.

    因此,我們預計第一季的總預訂量成長將達到中個位數,營收成長將達到中個位數。此外,我們預計 EBITDA 利潤率會出現一些壓縮,與去年第一季的水準一致。隨著我們全年的發展,我們預計我們的成長率將會提高,因為產品改進帶來的轉換效益、我們一鍵忠誠度計畫的勢頭進一步加速了高投資報酬率客戶的持續堆積,以及我們快速成長的更高牽引力全球市場。

  • So in closing, I am really proud of what our team has been able to accomplish through the successful execution of our multiyear initiatives, which enabled us to deliver one of the strongest financial years on record here at Expedia Group. Yet it feels that we're just getting started. With most of the heavy lifting behind us, we are now better positioned than ever to go on the offense. And this, combined with our strong financial position, should enable us to continue to deliver long-term profitable growth and shareholder returns. And with that, I would now like to open the call for questions. Thank you.

    最後,我對我們的團隊透過成功執行多年計畫所取得的成就感到非常自豪,這使我們能夠實現 Expedia Group 有史以來最強勁的財務年度之一。但感覺我們才剛開始。隨著大部分繁重工作的完成,我們現在比以往任何時候都更有能力繼續進攻。再加上我們強大的財務狀況,我們將能夠繼續實現長期獲利成長和股東回報。現在我想開始提問。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Naved Khan from B. Riley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Naved Khan。

  • Naved Ahmad Khan - MD of Internet Equity Research

    Naved Ahmad Khan - MD of Internet Equity Research

  • Yes. Thanks a lot. And Peter, I will miss you on these calls after the Q1 call. But I had a few questions, one on Vrbo. With the migration complete, I think you talked about sort of the app update kind of taking some time. And a little surprised that it's still -- been seeing some weakness in January. Just give us some color on what exactly is the reason for that. And you've talked about some sort of green shoots, so give us some commentary there. And then maybe on the -- on One Key. Can you just talk about maybe -- where maybe the learnings are. Are you satisfied with the retention and the conversion so far? And how much room do you see for improvement from here on? And also in terms of international rollout, I think previously, you talked about first half for that. Is that still on the cards?

    是的。多謝。彼得,在第一季電話會議之後,我會在這些電話中想念你。但我有幾個問題,其中一個是關於 Vrbo 的。遷移完成後,我想您談到了應用程式更新需要一些時間。令人有點驚訝的是,一月份仍然出現一些疲軟。請告訴我們具體原因是什麼。您已經談到了某種新芽,所以請給我們一些評論。然後也許是在──一鍵上。你能談談也許──也許可以學到的東西在哪裡嗎?到目前為止,您對留存率和轉換率滿意嗎?您認為從現在開始還有多大的進步空間?在國際推廣方面,我想您之前也談到了上半年的情況。這仍然在卡片上嗎?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So 3 good questions. Lots of material there. Thanks, Naved. And you can call me anytime if you could miss my voice. The -- first, on Vrbo. I would say if you think about what we were doing at the tail end of last year, we were pushing to 100% migration on the app, everything moved over. And I think as we told you, everybody, these steps come with expected conversion degradation because you can't get everything to par. It takes forever. You have to move everything to start working on the new product.

    是的。這是 3 個好問題。那裡有很多材料。謝謝,納維德。如果您想念我的聲音,可以隨時打電話給我。第一個,在 Vrbo 上。我想說,如果你想想我們去年年底所做的事情,我們正在推動應用程式 100% 遷移,一切都轉移了。我認為,正如我們告訴大家的那樣,這些步驟會帶來預期的轉換率下降,因為你無法讓一切達到標準。這需要永遠。您必須移動所有內容才能開始開發新產品。

  • So we did that. I'd say that degradation was broadly in line or slightly better than what we hoped, but it was still there. And when you're doing that, you obviously are not investing as heavily in terms of marketing because you're marketing people into a less converting product. So you kind of tend to back off on that spend because the spend becomes less efficient. As you now get to a place where the product is ramping back up very quickly and we've clawed back much of the conversion, which is, I think the green shoots you're referring to, so we're actually gaining much faster than, at least in my tenure, I've ever seen us gain back in terms of one of these transitions. And the product is basically virtually back to the same levels of conversion. Now we can push back in and spend again.

    所以我們就這麼做了。我想說,退化情況與我們希望的情況大致相符或稍好一些,但它仍然存在。當你這樣做時,你顯然不會在行銷方面投入那麼多,因為你正在向人們推銷轉換率較低的產品。因此,您傾向於減少支出,因為支出效率降低。現在,產品正在快速恢復,我們已經收回了大部分轉化,也就是說,我認為你指的是萌芽,所以我們實際上獲得的速度比至少在我的任期內,我曾看到我們在其中一項轉型中取得了回報。而且產品基本上幾乎回到了相同的轉換水平。現在我們可以重新投入並再次消費。

  • There is a little bit of a lag there because you've been underspending, if you will, for a bit, waiting for the product to get to where it's converting as strongly. Now we are spending back up, so it will take a little time to get the engines fully operational, if you will. But it's more or less a sequence we expected to happen. It's just you're seeing it in our numbers now.

    那裡有一點滯後,因為如果你願意的話,你一直在等待產品達到強勁的轉換水平,因此支出不足。現在我們正在重新投入資金,所以如果你願意的話,需要一點時間才能讓引擎完全運轉。但這或多或少是我們預期會發生的一個序列。只是你現在在我們的數據中看到了這一點。

  • As far as One Key goes, I think you said, am I satisfied with what we're seeing. I'd say I'm satisfied. It's still early days. I mean we're seeing a lot of the indicators we want to see. As I alluded to, cross-shopping is good. We're seeing one of the things we hope to achieve was getting HCOM -- Hotels.com customers who had fewer than 10 stamps, people who hadn't gotten to earn anything yet, to be more engaged with the product. And we're seeing their repeat rates improve and their business improve.

    就「一鍵」而言,我想你說過,我對我們所看到的感到滿意嗎?我想說我很滿意。現在還為時過早。我的意思是我們看到了很多我們希望看到的指標。正如我所提到的,交叉購物是件好事。我們希望實現的目標之一是讓 HCOM(擁有少於 10 個印章的 Hotels.com 客戶、尚未獲得任何收入的客戶)更多地參與該產品。我們看到他們的重複率有所提高,業務也有所改善。

  • We're starting to see Vrbo customers earn and now burn their One Key rewards not only on Vrbo but other places. But again, those cycles are a bit long. So it will take longer for the millions of people who have now earned One Key Cash on Vrbo, who didn't used to, to come back and spend it because they may not rent a house for 6 months or a year. But that is -- we're laying in that opportunity with our customer base, and then we're crossing that opportunity across the brands. And we're seeing good signs of cross-shopping and people starting to use more brands, so that's all consistent with what we hoped. But this isn't -- it's not a switch you flip. When you talk about travel timing, many people only travel once or twice a year. So it takes a little time, and we're building that in. So all good so far, but looking forward to it being even much more impactful over time.

    我們開始看到 Vrbo 客戶不僅在 Vrbo 上而且在其他地方賺取並銷毀他們的一鍵獎勵。但同樣,這些週期有點長。因此,對於數百萬現在在 Vrbo 上賺取一鍵現金(以前沒有)的人來說,需要更長的時間才能回來消費,因為他們可能有 6 個月或一年的時間不會租房子。但那就是——我們為我們的客戶群提供了這個機會,然後我們在各個品牌之間傳播這個機會。我們看到了交叉購物的良好跡象,人們開始使用更多品牌,所以這與我們的希望一致。但這不是——這不是一個你可以扳動的開關。當談到旅行時間時,很多人一年只旅行一兩次。所以這需要一點時間,我們正在將其納入其中。到目前為止一切都很好,但期待隨著時間的推移它會產生更大的影響。

  • And then international expansion, we're not detailing which countries we're doing exactly when, for competitive reasons. But One Key will roll out. We will push back into a number of markets that were historically pretty strong for us and have stayed reasonably strong, but we just think we have a lot of opportunity. And then we will have some tests into some markets that we haven't been as invested in historically where we think there's opportunity with the new product, new marketing approaches, et cetera. So a lot of exciting opportunity on the international front. It doesn't -- it's not all dependent on One Key. We think there's opportunity regardless. But in the markets where it's relevant, where we have multiple brands that have high brand awareness, we will be moving -- we will be launching One Key there, and we think it will only enhance that.

    然後是國際擴張,出於競爭原因,我們沒有詳細說明我們在哪些國家/地區開展業務的具體時間。但「一鍵」將會推出。我們將重新進入一些歷史上對我們來說相當強勁並保持相當強勁的市場,但我們只是認為我們有很多機會。然後我們將對一些我們歷史上沒有進行過投資的市場進行一些測試,我們認為新產品、新行銷方法等有機會。國際方面有很多令人興奮的機會。事實並非如此——它並不完全依賴「一鍵」。我們認為無論如何都有機會。但在相關的市場,我們擁有多個具有高品牌知名度的品牌,我們將採取行動——我們將在那裡推出“一鍵”,我們認為這只會增強這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kevin Kopelman from Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自考恩的凱文·科佩爾曼。

  • Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. First of all, Peter, congrats on your tenure. We'll definitely miss you on working with you on the calls. I did want to ask a question on that. Could you let us in to your thought process a little bit? Or any color on your decision to step away and the timing?

    是的。首先,彼得,恭喜你就任。我們一定會想念與您通話的。我確實想問一個問題。您能讓我們稍微了解一下您的思考過程嗎?或對你離開的決定和時間有什麼看法嗎?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, sure. I mean, I think I tried to capture it in my comments. But when this started, the idea was for me to come in for a period of time and sort of right the ship, put us where we want it to be, and then build the team and make sure we have the people to take it forward for the next generation as it were. And the transformation turned into a bigger -- I bit off more than I thought I was going to, and it was a bigger job than I thought it was. And I had my doubts a year ago, but we've made so much progress. And as I stared at -- and the Board and I stared at, should I go further, et cetera, I love this company, I love the category, I love my team, we've built an amazing group here. But I built it so that they can take it forward. And there's never a right time, but hopefully, this is a good time to transition.

    是的,當然。我的意思是,我想我試圖在評論中捕捉到這一點。但當這一切開始時,我的想法是讓我進來一段時間,調整一下船,把我們帶到我們想要的地方,然後建立團隊並確保我們有人員來推動它前進對於下一代來說。這個轉變變成了一個更大的——我比我想像的要付出更多的努力,這是一個比我想像的更大的工作。一年前我曾有過懷疑,但我們已經取得了很大進展。當我盯著看時,董事會和我盯著看,我是否應該更進一步等等,我喜歡這家公司,我喜歡這個類別,我喜歡我的團隊,我們在這裡建立了一個令人驚嘆的團隊。但我建造它是為了讓他們能夠推進它。從來沒有合適的時機,但希望這是一個過渡的好時機。

  • We're fortunate to have Ariane. We're fortunate to have all the people around her that we brought in or have been here many years. And I just think the company is ready, and I'll be here until May. I'll be busting my butt till then. I'm not -- I don't know how to do it a different way. But -- and look, we still -- transformations are never done. The work is never done. There isn't like an end date and it's like, good, we did #100 on our list of 100 things to do. But we've just made so much progress that I think the company is in a good place for it, and it felt like the right time for everybody.

    我們很幸運有阿麗亞娜。我們很幸運,她身邊有我們引進的或已經在這裡工作多年的人。我只是認為公司已經準備好了,我會在這裡待到五月。到那時我會竭盡全力。我不是——我不知道如何以不同的方式做到這一點。但是──你看,我們仍然──轉變從未完成。這項工作永遠不會完成。沒有結束日期,就像,很好,我們做了 100 件事清單上的第 100 件事。但我們剛剛取得瞭如此大的進展,我認為公司正處於一個有利的位置,而且這對每個人來說都是正確的時機。

  • Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Understood. And if I could just ask a quick follow-up on Naved's question on Vrbo. Could you walk us through what that looks like as you pass through Q2? Is it fair to think about that as an easier comp once you anniversary the initial platform upgrade? And what the time frame could be to get that back to flat and then growth?

    明白了。如果我能快速跟進 Naved 在 Vrbo 上提出的問題。您能向我們介紹一下您經過第二季時的情況嗎?一旦您首次平台升級週年紀念日,將其視為更簡單的比較是否公平?恢復平穩然後增長需要多長時間?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think basically, you can assume we anticipate growing out of this consistently across the year. Fourth quarter will be higher than third quarter, higher than second quarter, higher than first quarter. So we expect to continue growing. I think as I alluded to, conversion is now basically back to where it was before we did all this. But we didn't do it to get to even, we did it to get to materially better. And now Vrbo can benefit. And the reason it's going as quickly as it is, is we have lots of winning tests, if you will, that we used on the broader OTA platform that are also winners for Vrbo. So we're able to take a lot of our winning experiments, move them over to Vrbo and get that humming again and -- but we continue to go further. And as I alluded to, our ability to multiply our test-and-learn capacity in a material way, both in speed and in breadth, is really changing how we do things.

    是的。我認為基本上,你可以假設我們預計全年都會擺脫這種情況。第四季將高於第三季度,高於第二季度,高於第一季。因此,我們預計將繼續成長。我認為正如我所提到的,轉換現在基本上回到了我們做這一切之前的狀態。但我們這樣做並不是為了達到平衡,我們這樣做是為了在物質上變得更好。現在 Vrbo 可以受益。它之所以進展如此之快,是因為我們有很多成功的測試,如果你願意的話,我們在更廣泛的 OTA 平台上使用了這些測試,這些測試也是 Vrbo 的獲勝者。因此,我們能夠進行許多成功的實驗,將它們轉移到 Vrbo 並再次獲得嗡嗡聲 - 但我們會繼續走得更遠。正如我所提到的,我們以物質方式倍增我們的測驗和學習能力的能力,無論是速度還是廣度,都正在真正改變我們做事的方式。

  • So now when we have tests -- many of our tests, we launch across all our brands, across all our platforms, all devices, and we just couldn't do that before. So the speed of improvement, we expect to continue to accelerate. That will enhance all the brands, but Vrbo is the one that has a hole to dig out of. They were the most recent hole to dig out of. And so we expect that to continue to grow. We expect the investment back into the brand to continue to have impact. We expect the cross-shopping effect of having the HCOM and Expedia customers being able to use their One Key Cash on Vrbo to have an effect. So all of that, we expect to continue to build throughout the year. But we shot our own foot off on purpose late last year. We pulled back on spend because we thought that was the rational thing to do given the conversion situation. And now we're leaning back in. And it's really as simple as that, except we expect to improve faster in product. And I still think we have the best-in-class marketing, full stop, in our category. And when we go back on offense, it will take hold and both of those things will work together.

    所以現在當我們進行測試時——我們的許多測試,我們在所有品牌、所有平台、所有設備上推出,而我們以前無法做到這一點。所以改進的速度,我們預期會繼續加快。這將增強所有品牌的實力,但 Vrbo 是一個有待挖掘的品牌。它們是最近挖出來的洞。因此,我們預計這一數字將繼續增長。我們預計對該品牌的投資將繼續產生影響。我們預計 HCOM 和 Expedia 客戶能夠在 Vrbo 上使用一鍵現金會產生交叉購物效應。因此,我們預計全年將繼續建造所有這些。但去年年底我們故意搬石頭砸自己的腳。我們削減了支出,因為我們認為考慮到轉換情況,這是合理的做法。現在我們又重新開始了。事情確實就是這麼簡單,只不過我們希望產品能更快地改進。我仍然認為我們在我們的類別中擁有一流的行銷。當我們重新進攻時,它就會佔據主導地位,這兩件事將共同發揮作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的艾瑞克·謝裡丹。

  • Eric James Sheridan - MD & US Internet Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - MD & US Internet Analyst

  • I'd love to ask more of a big picture one. Now with One Key in the market and elements of the re-platforming behind you, how should we think about some of the things you talked about in the prepared remarks about unified product offerings and being more innovative in the way you go to market and retain customers and drive direct traffic? And how we should be thinking about some of the product road map that you're most excited about and the mixture of both growth that could come from those initiatives versus investments that still need to be made?

    我很想問更多有關大局的問題。現在,隨著「一鍵」進入市場以及您身後的平台重組要素,我們應該如何考慮您在準備好的評論中談到的有關統一產品供應以及在進入市場和保留產品的方式上更具創新性的一些事情客戶並帶來直接流量?我們應該如何考慮您最感興趣的一些產品路線圖,以及這些措施可能帶來的成長與仍需要進行的投資的結合?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean I'd say broadly, working backwards, I don't think -- there are investments of time, calories to be made. But in terms of investments of money and capital, I think we're on the other side of that hill, and we expect to be able to do things more efficiently going forward. But if you talk about One Key and the product it's offering, as I say, like One Key is a great way to create stickiness within our environment. But you might have heard me mention that we have finally migrated all our CRM, virtually 100% of our CRM and the brands, to our new unified messaging platform. That platform allows us to do things much faster, to communicate with customers. So whether we have One Key benefits, whether we have new offerings in One Key, whether they are One Key bonuses, all the things we can use to merchandise and keep people and use One Key to be the glue that keeps members sticky.

    是的。我的意思是,我想說的是,從廣義上講,我不認為需要投入時間和卡路里。但就金錢和資本投資而言,我認為我們已經站在了山的另一邊,我們希望能夠更有效地前進。但是,如果您談論“一鍵”及其提供的產品,正如我所說,“一鍵”是在我們的環境中創建粘性的好方法。但您可能聽過我提到,我們終於將所有 CRM(幾乎 100% 的 CRM 和品牌)遷移到了新的統一訊息平台。該平台使我們能夠更快地完成工作,與客戶進行溝通。因此,我們是否有「一鍵」福利,是否有「一鍵」新產品,是否是「一鍵」獎金,所有我們可以用來推銷和留住人員的東西,並使用「一鍵」作為保持會員黏性的黏合劑。

  • And remember, members get more than just One Key. They get member discounts in the product. And in many of the products, we're expanding that every day. We now have deeper discounts for silver and gold, and so there's just a lot of things to keep them in. But it's important to be able, obviously, to communicate with them in the most modern ways, and that's what our new single messaging platform allows us to do. And then you add on to that -- and this kind of goes to the broader point, as we've woven -- we've improved the products, we've added new features.

    請記住,會員獲得的不僅僅是一鍵。他們在產品中獲得會員折扣。在許多產品中,我們每天都在擴展這一點。我們現在對白銀和黃金有更大的折扣,因此有很多東西可以保留它們。但顯然,能夠以最現代的方式與它們進行交流很重要,這就是我們新的單一訊息平台的作用允許我們做。然後你再補充一下——這涉及到更廣泛的觀點,正如我們所編織的——我們改進了產品,我們添加了新功能。

  • But I'd say -- you said, what am I most excited about? It's really machine learning and AI plumbed into essentially the entire product experience because what that gets you is effectively a personalized experience for every customer. And that's from the front-end basic shopping flows, as I mentioned, to post booking to CRM and everything else. And the more we can connect and now that we have a single identity for our customers and now that we can use that data to give them the best experience, we're seeing some of our best wins now. Just as algorithms improve and learn and new versions come out, whether it's to optimize pictures or content or what you see in what order or what filters are applied, like those kinds of things that we can now do at scale, that is what I'm most excited about.

    但我想說──你說,我最興奮的是什麼?這實際上是機器學習和人工智慧融入整個產品體驗中,因為這實際上為每位客戶帶來了個人化體驗。正如我所提到的,這是從前端基本購物流程到將預訂發佈到 CRM 和其他所有流程。我們可以連接得越多,現在我們為客戶提供了單一身份,現在我們可以使用這些數據為他們提供最佳體驗,我們現在看到了一些最好的勝利。正如演算法的改進和學習以及新版本的出現一樣,無論是優化圖片或內容,還是您以什麼順序看到的內容或應用什麼過濾器,就像我們現在可以大規模做的那些事情一樣,這就是我的目的我最興奮的是。

  • I mean we have lots of cool features. We have all kinds of things going on to improve the air shopping experience, the package shopping experience, you name it. But really, at its core, I think having plumbed in the AI and ML, we can now do so much more, so much more quickly. And it will feel to the consumer like a much more customized experience that's relevant to them. And I think that's inherently sticky in a way that, frankly, travel products have not historically been in our space. So that's what I'm most excited about.

    我的意思是我們有很多很酷的功能。我們正在採取各種措施來改善航空購物體驗、套餐購物體驗等等。但實際上,我認為在深入研究人工智慧和機器學習之後,我們現在可以做得更多、更快。消費者會感覺這是一種與他們相關的更客製化的體驗。我認為這本質上是有黏性的,坦白說,旅遊產品歷史上從未出現在我們的領域。這就是我最興奮的事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lee Horowitz from Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lee Horowitz。

  • Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

    Lee Horowitz - Research Analyst

  • First, Peter, congrats on your tenure. Thanks again for the crazy couple of years, and congratulations on all that you've accomplished over that time period. Maybe just sticking with Vrbo as we think about it in 2024. I guess, one, how do you feel about the overall health of the alternative accommodations industry? Do you think there may be some continued pricing headwinds in, say, core vacation rental destinations as travel patterns continue to normalize and perhaps some macro weakness plays through? And then secondly, can you provide any thoughts on how the competitive set for Vrbo has evolved over the past couple of years? Maybe as you've taken your foot off the gas and how maybe this shift in competitive landscape, if it is happening, is informing your strategies to get this business back to humming again?

    首先,彼得,恭喜你就任。再次感謝您瘋狂的幾年,並祝賀您在這段時間所取得的一切成就。也許只是堅持使用 Vrbo,因為我們在 2024 年考慮它。我想,第一,您對另類住宿行業的整體健康狀況有何看法?您是否認為,隨著旅行模式繼續正常化,並且可能出現一些宏觀疲軟,核心度假租賃目的地等地可能會出現持續的定價阻力?其次,您能否對 Vrbo 的競爭環境在過去幾年中如何演變提供一些想法?也許當你已經不再踩油門時,競爭格局的這種轉變(如果它正在發生)如何為你的策略提供信息,讓這項業務重新恢復活力?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Sure, Lee. And thanks for your thoughts. It has been a couple of crazy years. The -- I would say a few things, sort of working backwards. I think, obviously, we've seen VR continue to be healthy even as -- even post pandemic as habits have shifted. However, there's like VR within VR. So urban has done better. We are not heavily weighted to urban. As you know, some of our competitors are. I think that's what you mean by the evolving landscape. Obviously, Airbnb has always been there. Booking has been doing more with that product, again, largely as best we can tell, focused in benefiting from the urban side of VR or alternative accommodations. We're still squarely situated in our core markets.

    是的。當然,李。感謝您的想法。這已經是瘋狂的幾年了。 - 我想說幾件事,有點倒退。我認為,顯然,我們已經看到虛擬實境仍然保持健康狀態,即使在大流行之後,隨著習慣的改變。然而,VR 中還有 VR。所以城市做得更好。我們對城市的重視程度並不重。如您所知,我們的一些競爭對手是。我認為這就是你所說的不斷變化的景觀的意思。顯然,Airbnb 一直都在那裡。據我們所知,Booking 一直在該產品上做更多的事情,重點是從 VR 或替代住宿的城市方面受益。我們仍然處於我們的核心市場。

  • We haven't made a big decision to pivot to urban. But one of the things that's enabled by all the migrations we're doing that will come this year, we have a bunch of multiunit VR inventory on our OTA brands that is not on Vrbo. And we still have some Vrbo content that is not on our OTA brands. So there's still opportunity to do more in sharing the inventory we already possess. We've had no shortage of finding inventory. And I think housing market issues and other things probably make that macro easier now. It's really just changing habits. Now our hedge against renting a mountain house or a beach house is, of course, renting a hotel or resort room as the alternative. And we've participated very well on that, and we feel good about our position there.

    我們還沒有做出轉向城市的重大決定。但今年我們正在進行的所有遷移將帶來的一件事是,我們在 OTA 品牌上擁有大量多單元 VR 庫存,而 Vrbo 上沒有。我們還有一些 OTA 品牌上沒有的 Vrbo 內容。因此,我們仍然有機會在共享我們已有的庫存方面做更多的事情。我們不乏尋找庫存的機會。我認為房地產市場問題和其他事情現在可能會讓宏觀經濟變得更容易。這實際上只是改變習慣。現在,我們對租用山屋或海濱別墅的防範措施當然是租用飯店或度假村房間作為替代方案。我們在這方面參與得很好,我們對我們在那裡的地位感到滿意。

  • But I think we feel very good about Vrbo. We needed to get the product to a new place. We are now firmly on that journey. I don't think we gave space to anybody. I think we have a good brand. We have an improving product that I have no doubt will be best-in-class, and we just have to get back on offense. And again, this is one of those places where you had to take a pause, go slow to go fast. And the slow part always hurts a little. But if you don't do it, you can never go fast. So we're in a good spot now, and I think we just have to accelerate out of it. And I don't worry about the supply situation. And I don't really think we're losing ground to other competitors who have some super sticky product. And over time, we should have the stickiest product because our product comes with loyalty, and our loyalty is usable across any travel product. So I think that's a winning combination. We just got to keep pounding it home now. And now that we have the product to get behind, we will do that.

    但我認為我們對 Vrbo 感覺非常好。我們需要將產品帶到一個新的地方。我們現在正堅定地踏上這趟旅程。我認為我們沒有給任何人空間。我認為我們有一個很好的品牌。我們有一個不斷改進的產品,我毫不懷疑它會是同類中最好的,我們只需要重新進攻。再說一次,這是你必須暫停一下、慢走才能快走的地方之一。而緩慢的部分總是會有點痛。但如果你不這樣做,你永遠無法走得快。所以我們現在處於一個很好的位置,我認為我們必須加速擺脫它。而且我不擔心供應情況。我真的不認為我們會輸給其他擁有超黏性產品的競爭對手。隨著時間的推移,我們應該擁有最具黏性的產品,因為我們的產品具有忠誠度,而我們的忠誠度適用於任何旅行產品。所以我認為這是一個成功的組合。我們現在必須繼續把它打回家。既然我們已經擁有了可以支援的產品,我們就會這麼做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Anthony Post from Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安東尼·波斯特。

  • Justin Post - MD

    Justin Post - MD

  • Great. I guess a couple for Julie. You gave us the 11% growth for lodging and 18% for hotels, so we can kind of solve for Vrbo. But can you give us any range of what percent your alternative accommodation nights are or bookings, just so we can -- not have too big of a range there? And then second, last year, you were very clear, double-digit top and bottom line. I think you said similar growth on the top line and then margin improvement. I mean, is that kind of saying double digit for both? Or do you want to clarify kind of the growth rates at all?

    偉大的。我猜朱莉是一對。你們給了我們住宿成長 11% 和飯店成長 18% 的數據,所以我們可以解決 Vrbo 的問題。但是,您能否向我們提供您的替代住宿夜數或預訂的百分比範圍,以便我們可以 - 範圍不會太大?其次,去年,你非常清楚,兩位數的頂線和底線。我想你說過類似的收入成長,然後是利潤率的提高。我的意思是,這兩個數字都是兩位數嗎?或者您想澄清一下成長率嗎?

  • Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

    Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

  • Sure. On the first one, we haven't -- and I think recently, we haven't given out what percent is our Vrbo piece of the business. But I think when we bought the company, there was some -- and obviously, numbers that were provided at that time. You could do some extrapolation on the growth rate and get pretty close probably. So I don't think there's anything else that we would give out today from a disclosure perspective on that front.

    當然。關於第一個問題,我們還沒有透露——我想最近我們還沒有透露我們的 Vrbo 業務份額是多少。但我認為,當我們收購這家公司時,當時提供了一些——顯然是——的數字。你可以對成長率進行一些推斷,結果可能非常接近。因此,我認為從披露的角度來看,我們今天不會再透露任何其他資訊。

  • On the guidance perspective, we basically have said, as you alluded to, that we are planning to grow relatively in line with our growth rates from this year, which is about, call it, 9.5%, 10% in GBV and 10% on revenue. And then we said with margin expansion relatively in line, which we're calling about 75 basis points for expansion this year. So that's how I would take it. I mean relatively in line to us, plus or minus 100 or so basis points, but that's how I think -- I'd think about it, that it's both for GBV and revenue.

    從指導的角度來看,我們基本上已經說過,正如您所提到的,我們計劃從今年開始按照我們的增長率進行相對一致的增長,即9.5%,GBV 為10%,GBV 為10% 。收入。然後我們說,利潤率擴張相對一致,我們稱之為今年擴張約 75 個基點。我就是這麼認為的。我的意思是與我們相對一致,正負 100 個基點左右,但這就是我的想法 - 我會考慮,這對於 GBV 和收入都是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的傑德凱利。

  • Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

    Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Yes. Just going on to your overall marketing strategy, just by watching TV, I still see you're still marketing to a lot of the brands, Hotels.com, Expedia. And do you start to pivot those brands more into One Key? Can you talk about that? And then can you just talk about your comments on streamlining expenses? Sort of what's the strategy behind that move?

    是的。就你的整體行銷策略而言,光是看電視,我仍然看到你仍在向很多品牌行銷,Hotels.com、Expedia。您是否開始將這些品牌更多地轉向“一鍵”?你能談談嗎?那麼您能談談您對精簡開支的看法嗎?這項舉動背後的策略是什麼?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, sure. Thanks, Jed. So on the marketing front, yes, in the U.S., you will see all the brands advertised. It used to be far more brands. We're down to those core 3, and we believe in those 3. I think we're still trying to find the balance between can they be advertised as one? Or do they need to be advertised as 3? And what is the best way to penetrate? So I would think of that as sort of a -- we're on our own learning journey about what we can do and how we can help people see them as a family of products that work together. And we continue to try to optimize, be it on television, which is what you're seeing, or in programmatic or frankly even in metasearch and so forth. So we're constantly working to see what the optimum way to drive those are.

    是的,當然。謝謝,傑德。所以在行銷方面,是的,在美國,你會看到所有品牌的廣告。曾經有更多的品牌。我們專注於這三個核心,我們相信這三個。我認為我們仍在努力尋找它們之間的平衡,可以將它們作為一個廣告來宣傳嗎?還是需要宣傳為3?最好的滲透方式是什麼?所以我認為這是一種——我們正在學習我們能做什麼以及如何幫助人們將它們視為一個協同工作的產品系列。我們繼續嘗試優化,無論是在電視上(這就是您所看到的),還是在程式化中,甚至在元搜尋等方面。因此,我們不斷努力尋找驅動這些的最佳方式。

  • But I will say in the rest of the world, we have made very conscious decisions of where we will maintain one brand or if we think it's worth at 2 or 3 brands and what we will do there. And we will lean heavily into -- it's a high bar for there to be more than one. There has to be real brand affinity and other things that are driving that continuation of the second brand. So especially now that conceivably, any of our brands could have all or any lines of business and that's not that hard for us to do.

    但我要說的是,在世界其他地方,我們已經非常有意識地決定在哪裡保留一個品牌,或者我們是否認為值得保留2個或3個品牌,以及我們將在那裡做什麼。我們將大力支持——對於不只一個來說,這是一個很高的門檻。必須有真正的品牌親和力和其他因素來推動第二個品牌的延續。因此,尤其是現在,可以想像,我們的任何品牌都可以擁有全部或任何業務線,這對我們來說並不難做到。

  • So the opportunity to take, for example, a market that is a predominant Hotels.com market and potentially add car and air and other packages and other things is within our gift now. And so we can make quite different decisions about do we need to be in with Expedia just to have air or something else? So that's really a big opportunity for us and allows us to simplify how we think about those decisions and, in some ways, not replicate some of the complexity we've made for ourselves over the years. So that's a work in progress, but all those things are effective, and we're working to optimize all the time on the best way to communicate that. Maybe Julie can say something about the expenses.

    因此,我們現在有機會抓住一個主導的 Hotels.com 市場,並可能增加汽車、航空、其他套餐和其他東西。因此,我們可以做出完全不同的決定,我們是否需要加入 Expedia 只是為了獲得空氣或其他東西?因此,這對我們來說確實是一個巨大的機會,它使我們能夠簡化對這些決策的思考方式,並且在某些方面,不會重複我們多年來為自己製造的一些複雜性。所以這是一項正在進行的工作,但所有這些事情都是有效的,我們一直在努力以最佳方式溝通。也許朱莉可以談談費用。

  • Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

    Julie P. Whalen - Executive VP, CFO & Director

  • Yes. So on the streamlining of expenses, I think we've been saying all last year that, obviously, during the transformation phase, we've ramped up in expenses. We've had duplicate systems, legacy systems, while we're still building out the new system, and all the costs that are associated with that across the board from cloud and licensing and maintenance and things like that. And so we have said, as we come out of this transformation phase, that we think there's opportunity to deprecate systems and redeploy resources and find cost savings throughout the P&L.

    是的。因此,在精簡開支方面,我認為我們去年一直在說,顯然,在轉型階段,我們增加了開支。我們有重複的系統、遺留系統,而我們仍在建構新系統,以及與雲端、授權和維護等相關的所有成本。因此,我們說過,當我們走出這個轉型階段時,我們認為有機會廢棄系統並重新部署資源,並在整個損益表中找到成本節約的方法。

  • And so this is our first sort of stab, if you will, at that. And so you'll see things across the board coming out as we move throughout the year in cost of sales, in overhead. And to the extent that obviously crosses over into capital expenditures, you'll see some of the pressure coming off, at least the growth rates there. And if not, like in -- also in absolute dollars. But that's simply what that represents. We're obviously not going to go into a lot of details today, but we did purposely say that we will give you more information sort of later this quarter and as we move throughout the year on that as we give you more of the details associated with it.

    如果你願意的話,這是我們的第一次嘗試。因此,隨著我們全年銷售成本和管理費用的變化,您會看到全面的情況。在某種程度上,這顯然會涉及資本支出,你會看到一些壓力減輕,至少是那裡的成長率。如果不是,就像 - 也以絕對美元計算。但這就是它所代表的意義。顯然,我們今天不會討論太多細節,但我們確實特意表示,我們將在本季度晚些時候向您提供更多信息,並且隨著我們全年的進展,我們將向您提供更多相關詳細訊息。用它。

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And I would just add. That's always been the plot that we wanted. This wasn't just to build cool new things. This was also to build them the right way and be efficient in how we did it. And that's the opportunity that the transformation has also provided for us, and we're excited to be on that side of it too, not just from an experience standpoint but from an efficiency standpoint.

    是的。我只想補充一下。這一直是我們想要的情節。這不僅僅是為了打造酷炫的新事物。這也是為了以正確的方式建造它們,並提高我們的工作效率。這就是轉型也為我們提供的機會,我們也很高興能夠參與其中,不僅從體驗的角度來看,而且從效率的角度來看。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Okay. I'm sure these questions have been covered, but if I could ask again, please. Of these 2 initiatives, the re-platforming of the brands, particularly the Vrbo brand, and then the One Key strategy, is it -- I assume these are more like snowball events. Have you already seen an impact on the business or on demand, cross-selling, retention, acquisition from these so far? Or would you -- if not, could you lay out expectations of when we would?

    好的。我確信這些問題已經解決,但如果我可以再問一次,請。在這兩項舉措中,品牌的重新平台化,特別是 Vrbo 品牌,然後是一鍵策略——我認為這些更像是滾雪球事件。到目前為止,您是否已經看到這些對業務或需求、交叉銷售、保留、收購的影響?或者您會—如果不會,您能否列出我們何時會這樣做的期望?

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Mark. I'll give you a quick answer. I think we sort of addressed some of it already. But basically, the Vrbo transition to the unified stack is more of just an execution thing. I think what it gives us is the opportunity now to accelerate Vrbo in terms of feature and test-and-learn and grow faster, as I mentioned, to the rest of the group. We dug a hole, we knew we would. When we moved it to the new stack, the conversion would go down. We have been digging out of that hole. We're about back to par, but we didn't do it to get to par. We did it to accelerate far past that. And now we have the opportunity in Vrbo, riding on the same rail as the other brands, gets the benefit of all the testing, shared testing opportunities that we -- winners that we found in other places and so forth. So we're excited about the progression of that product, but it had to go through the bad to get to the good.

    是的,馬克。我會給你一個快速的答案。我想我們已經解決了其中的一些問題。但基本上,Vrbo 向統一堆疊的過渡更多地只是執行方面的事情。我認為,正如我所提到的,它現在為我們提供了在功能和測試學習方面加速 Vrbo 的機會,並讓團隊的其他成員更快成長。我們挖了一個洞,我們知道我們會的。當我們將其移至新堆疊時,轉換率會下降。我們一直從那個洞裡挖出來。我們即將回到標準桿,但我們這樣做並不是為了達到標準桿。我們這樣做是為了加速遠遠超過這個目標。現在我們在 Vrbo 有機會,與其他品牌一樣,享受所有測試的好處,分享我們在其他地方找到的獲勝者的測試機會等等。因此,我們對該產品的進展感到興奮,但它必須經歷不好的過程才能獲得好的結果。

  • As far as One Key goes, I also mentioned, we feel very good about the early indicators. Yes, there is more cross-shopping. Yes, we're seeing more repeat from certain pools of customers that we thought would benefit from this like Hotels.com customers who had less than 10 stamps in our old system and people, if you will, who hadn't earned any benefit. Now they have benefit and they're coming back more, and that's what we want to see. But as I also mentioned, while millions of people have earned One Key Cash on Vrbo, a small percentage of them have re-spent it. And that just has to do with the cycles of the booking windows for Vrbo and that people rarely book more than once or twice a year, so we've got to get those -- we expect to see those people back in. That's why I've said we've built up this value, and now that value needs to be realized as they come back direct later as they use that One Key Cash across other brands with more cross-shopping. Like that's the dream.

    就一鍵而言,我也提到過,我們對早期指標感覺非常好。是的,交叉購物越來越多。是的,我們看到某些客戶群的重複次數增多,我們認為這些客戶會從中受益,例如在我們的舊系統中擁有少於10 個印章的Hotels.com 客戶,以及沒有獲得任何好處的人(如果你願意的話)。現在他們得到了好處,並且回來的次數更多,這就是我們希望看到的。但正如我也提到的,雖然數百萬人在 Vrbo 上賺取了一鍵現金,但其中一小部分人重新花費了它。這與 Vrbo 的預訂窗口週期有關,人們很少每年預訂超過一兩次,所以我們必須得到這些 - 我們希望看到這些人回來。這就是為什麼我我們已經說過,我們已經建立了這種價值,現在需要實現這種價值,因為他們稍後會直接回來,因為他們在其他品牌上使用一鍵現金進行更多的交叉購物。就像那是夢一樣。

  • And of course, getting Expedia and Hotels.com members to use their One Key Cash on Vrbo, which we've also seen. But again, those cycles aren't every month. People do that once or twice a year. So we're seeing good early signals, but it's all building and that's why I'm excited. Like it's going to be a slow build, but it's going to be a great, sticky thing for us over time. And again, we'll keep more and more -- as we get more of the right people in, as we keep more of them and as they get to use all of our products and again we capture more wallet share from them, that's what we're pushing for.

    當然,我們也看到了讓 Expedia 和 Hotels.com 會員在 Vrbo 上使用一鍵現金的做法。但同樣,這些週期並不是每個月都有。人們每年都會這樣做一兩次。所以我們看到了良好的早期信號,但一切都在建設中,這就是我感到興奮的原因。好像這將是一個緩慢的構建過程,但隨著時間的推移,這對我們來說將是一件偉大而粘性的事情。再說一遍,我們將保留越來越多的人才——隨著我們吸引更多合適的人加入,隨著我們保留更多的人,隨著他們開始使用我們所有的產品,我們再次從他們那裡獲得更多的錢包份額,這就是我們正在推動。

  • Thank you, everybody. I think that was the last question, operator. Is that right?

    謝謝大家。我認為這是最後一個問題,接線員。是對的嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

    Peter Maxwell Kern - Vice Chairman & CEO

  • Okay. Thank you, everybody. Appreciate your questions, and we'll see you in May. Take care.

    好的。謝謝大家。感謝您的提問,我們五月見。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a nice day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路,祝您有美好的一天。