Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Expedia Group, Inc.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Expedia Group, Inc.

Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call.

2019 年第四季度財報電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Michael Senno, Vice President of Investor Relations.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Michael Senno。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon and welcome to Expedia Group's Financial Results Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year ended December 31, 2019.

下午好，歡迎來到 Expedia Group 截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。

I'm pleased to be joined on the call today by our Chairman, Barry Diller; our Vice Chairman, Peter Kern; and acting CFO, Eric Hart.

我很高興今天我們的主席巴里·迪勒 (Barry Diller) 加入電話會議；我們的副主席 Peter Kern；和代理首席財務官埃里克哈特。

The following discussion, including responses to your questions, reflect management's views as of today, February 13, 2020, only.

以下討論，包括對您問題的回答，僅反映管理層截至 2020 年 2 月 13 日今天的觀點。

We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise this information.

我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些信息的義務。

As always, some of the statements made on today's call are forward-looking, typically preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, we are optimistic or confident that, or similar statements.

與往常一樣，在今天的電話會議上發表的一些聲明是前瞻性的，通常以我們期望、我們相信、我們預期、我們樂觀或有信心或類似的聲明開頭。

Please refer to today's earnings release and the company's filings with the SEC for information about factors which could cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

請參閱今天的收益發布和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的信息。

You'll find reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures discussed today in our earnings release, which is posted on the company's Investor Relations website at ir.expediagroup.com.

您會在我們的收益發布中找到非 GAAP 措施與今天討論的最具可比性的 GAAP 措施的對賬，該發布發佈在公司的投資者關係網站 ir.expediagroup.com 上。

And I encourage you to periodically visit our IR website for other important content, including today's earnings release.

我鼓勵您定期訪問我們的 IR 網站以獲取其他重要內容，包括今天的收益發布。

Unless otherwise stated, all references to cost to revenue, selling and marketing expense, general and administrative expense, and technology and content expense, exclude stock-based compensation and depreciation expense.

除非另有說明，否則所有提及的收入成本、銷售和營銷費用、一般和管理費用以及技術和內容費用均不包括基於股票的補償和折舊費用。

And all comparisons on this call will be against our results for the comparable period of 2018.

本次電話會議的所有比較都將與我們 2018 年同期的結果進行比較。

A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA guidance to the closest corresponding GAAP measure is not provided because we are unable to predict the ultimate outcome of certain significant items without unreasonable effort.

沒有提供調整後的 EBITDA 指導與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬，因為我們無法在不付出不合理努力的情況下預測某些重要項目的最終結果。

These items include, but are not limited to, foreign exchange, returns on investment spending and acquisition-related or restructuring expenses.

這些項目包括但不限於外匯、投資支出回報和收購相關或重組費用。

As such, the items that are excluded from our non-GAAP guidance are uncertain, depend on various factors and could have a material impact on GAAP results for the guidance period.

因此，從我們的非 GAAP 指南中排除的項目是不確定的，取決於各種因素，並可能對指南期間的 GAAP 結果產生重大影響。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Barry.

就這樣，讓我把電話轉給巴里。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，邁克爾。

I haven't been on one of these analyst calls in, I don't know, endless amount of time.

我沒有參加過這些分析師電話中的任何一個，我不知道，有無數的時間。

So I'm probably a bit raggy, but I won't ask your indulgence.

所以我可能有點衣衫襤褸，但我不會請求你的寬恕。

I'll just kind of plunge in.

我只是有點投入。

Since December 4, which is when we made the management change, Peter Kern and I, not a day has gone by that we have not been engaged in Expedia business.

自 12 月 4 日以來，也就是我們進行管理層變動的時候，Peter Kern 和我，沒有一天不從事 Expedia 業務。

And during this period of time -- and so I mean having been Chairman of Expedia for, I don't know, I think almost 20 years or so, I thought I knew a lot about the company.

在這段時間裡——我的意思是我擔任 Expedia 董事長的時間，我不知道，大約 20 年左右，我認為我對這家公司了解很多。

But there's nothing like being on the ground, and we've been on the ground.

但沒有什麼比在地面上更好的了，我們一直在地面上。

And I've gotten to know the leaders of the businesses, and I'm definitely impressed.

我已經認識了這些企業的領導者，這給我留下了深刻的印象。

I believe in the future of Expedia as do my colleagues, emphatically.

我和我的同事們都堅信 Expedia 的未來。

We bought, in the last couple of months, 634 million of our stock, which is more than we've ever bought in an entire year.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們購買了 6.34 億股股票，這比我們一整年的購買量都多。

And we're not going to end that process now.

我們現在不會結束該流程。

But what we've really done is we've taken, as immediate steps as we can, to refocus the company on the day-to-day operations of -- and the execution for what the company is engaged in every day.

但我們真正做的是，我們已經盡可能立即採取措施，將公司的重點重新放在日常運營上——以及公司每天從事的工作的執行上。

Last year, we spent probably 9 months of the year on this massive reorganization.

去年，我們大概花了一年中的 9 個月進行這次大規模重組。

We were contemplating changing 350, I think, of 500 jobs.

我認為，我們正在考慮改變 500 個工作崗位中的 350 個。

It was this vastly complicated process that froze us.

正是這個極其複雜的過程讓我們驚呆了。

Management at the same time didn't really have a clear path how to grow the company.

與此同時，管理層並沒有真正明確如何發展公司。

It just kind of a top-down commandment to deliver x earnings.

它只是一種自上而下的命令來提供 x 收益。

And that misled a lot of people into actions that kind of made sense for a quarter of a day.

這誤導了很多人在四分之一的時間內採取了有意義的行動。

And the rest of the day the results of kind of this top-down pressure without understanding how to actually execute and simplify the business and give it clarity.

一天剩下的時間，這種自上而下的壓力的結果，卻不了解如何實際執行和簡化業務並使其清晰。

We've somewhat become a kind of consultant-led and wildly complex business.

我們在某種程度上已經成為一種以顧問為主導且極其複雜的業務。

I said and I think sclerotic and bloated.

我說，我認為是硬化和臃腫的。

And I'll give you one anecdote that kind of rang in my ears, that I've heard, I don't know, I guess, 1.5 months or 2 months ago, kind of out there in Seattle, that at Amazon, the whole concept of work and life balance, that at Amazon it was all work and no life, and then Expedia was all life and no work.

我會給你講一個我耳邊響起的軼事，我不知道，我猜是在 1.5 個月或 2 個月前，在西雅圖，在亞馬遜，工作和生活平衡的整個概念，在亞馬遜，只有工作，沒有生活，然後 Expedia，只有生活，沒有工作。

Now that's an enormous exaggeration.

現在這是一個巨大的誇張。

We've got wonderful people in the business.

我們的業務中有很棒的人。

This is not damning our employees, but for several years, we really lost clarity and discipline.

這並不是在詛咒我們的員工，但多年來，我們確實失去了清晰度和紀律。

So we're changing a great deal.

所以我們正在改變很多。

We're stopping this too large complexity.

我們正在阻止這種過於復雜的情況。

We're simplifying our strategy.

我們正在簡化我們的策略。

We're stopping doing dumb things and starting to do what we think are good things.

我們正在停止做愚蠢的事情，開始做我們認為好的事情。

So from doing that dumb to doing this smart, here are a few examples.

因此，從做傻事到做事聰明，這裡有幾個例子。

From wasteful activities that weren't core to our business, to actually driving sustained growth.

從不是我們業務核心的浪費活動，到實際推動持續增長。

From every brand working in silos around the world to one strategy on marketing and the geographies across all of our brands.

從每個在世界各地各自為政的品牌，到我們所有品牌的營銷和地域戰略。

From our reliance on Google and Metasearch, to aggressively moving to grow our own direct business and have loyal relationships with our customers.

從我們對谷歌和元搜索的依賴，到積極發展我們自己的直接業務並與我們的客戶建立忠誠的關係。

The separate teams and data that's dispersed all over the place to one platform driving the entire company.

分散在各處的獨立團隊和數據集中在一個平台上，驅動著整個公司。

From an air business we basically took for granted as just another line of business, to actually prioritizing it, energizing it as a true competitive differentiator.

從我們基本上認為理所當然的航空業務只是另一條業務線，到實際優先考慮它，激發它作為真正的競爭優勢。

And from chasing all these grand goals to focusing on day-to-day execution and making that customer experience great.

從追求所有這些宏偉目標到專注於日常執行並打造出色的客戶體驗。

So we're in.

所以我們進去了。

We're energized, we're enthusiastic.

我們充滿活力，我們充滿熱情。

And from now on, I hope, I think, you'll see the effect of that and the excellent people of Expedia and what we can all accomplish together.

從現在開始，我希望，我想，你會看到它的影響和 Expedia 的優秀員工，以及我們可以共同完成的事情。

So with that, Mr. Kern, my colleague, my partner in this process, is going to say a few things.

因此，克恩先生，我的同事，我在這個過程中的合作夥伴，要說幾句話。

Thanks, Barry, and good afternoon, everybody.

謝謝，巴里，大家下午好。

Let me start by reiterating what Barry said.

讓我首先重申巴里所說的話。

I think we've learned a ton in the last 2 months.

我認為我們在過去 2 個月中學到了很多東西。

We've seen some great people and great things.

我們見過一些偉大的人和偉大的事情。

And we've seen a fair bit of wasted energy and calories going at things that may not have promised -- may not get us to the promised land.

我們已經看到相當多的精力和卡路里被浪費在那些可能沒有承諾過的事情上——可能不會讓我們到達應許之地。

And certainly we have not learned and been agile enough and willing to say no to things and willing to acknowledge failure when it happens.

當然，我們還沒有學習和足夠敏捷，也沒有願意對事情說不，也沒有願意在失敗發生時承認失敗。

I think we are getting about the business of that and being highly disciplined.

我認為我們正在著手處理這方面的事務，並且紀律嚴明。

And I think that is working its way through the organization, and it's just frankly a terrific feeling.

我認為這正在整個組織中發揮作用，坦率地說，這是一種非常棒的感覺。

And to get into a few specifics, I wanted to start by just covering guidance a little more closely.

為了了解一些細節，我想首先更詳細地介紹指導。

There's sort of 3 components to how we built our way to this broad guidance approach.

我們如何建立這種廣泛的指導方法的方式有 3 個組成部分。

One is the core business, the base business, if you will, with the new disciplines we put in with some attention to wasted marketing spend and a few other areas.

一個是核心業務，基礎業務，如果你願意的話，我們會引入新的紀律，關注浪費的營銷支出和其他一些領域。

We believe the core itself will accelerate as against 2019.

我們相信與 2019 年相比，核心本身將加速。

It will be somewhat back-end loaded, but it will accelerate.

它會有些後端加載，但會加速。

On top of that, as we said in the press release, we are going after $300 million to $500 million of incremental savings, and that is across the waterfront.

最重要的是，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們正在尋求 3 億至 5 億美元的增量節省，而且是在整個海濱。

We are looking at every part of the business, whether it be tech licenses and procurement to geography, et cetera.

我們正在研究業務的每個部分，無論是技術許可還是地理採購等等。

And we think there's a lot of money there, the timing of which, however, is uncertain as it lays out through the course of this year.

而且我們認為那裡有很多錢，但是由於它在今年的過程中佈局，所以時間不確定。

But we do believe by the end of the year, we will be at that run rate level.

但我們確實相信，到今年年底，我們將達到該運行率水平。

On the other hand, of course there is the coronavirus, a terrible thing for humanity and also a not very good thing for our business.

另一方面，當然還有冠狀病毒，這對人類來說是一件可怕的事情，對我們的業務來說也不是一件好事。

And that is highly tough to predict.

這很難預測。

We have a pretty good line of sight on its impact on the first quarter.

我們對它對第一季度的影響有很好的看法。

But in terms of its duration and the depth of its impact, it is hard to predict.

但就其持續時間和影響深度而言，很難預測。

So taking all that uncertainty, running a number of scenarios on the virus based on historic patterns, we have generally taken all that together and said notwithstanding all those uncertainties, we believe and are confident we will get into the double digits.

因此，考慮到所有這些不確定性，根據歷史模式對病毒進行多種情景分析，我們通常將所有這些放在一起，並表示儘管存在所有這些不確定性，但我們相信並有信心我們將達到兩位數。

Of course, if the virus becomes something completely unexpected, who knows, but we feel confident about that.

當然，如果病毒變得完全出乎意料，誰知道呢，但我們對此充滿信心。

Moving on to the operations and digging slightly deeper on a few of the themes Barry was talking about.

繼續操作並稍微深入挖掘 Barry 正在談論的一些主題。

This idea of bringing our brands together and out of silos and collaborating in a whole new way is super important to the future success of our business.

這種將我們的品牌聚集在一起並打破孤島並以全新方式合作的想法對於我們業務未來的成功非常重要。

I would add to that, that the best example and the cleanest example today is probably geographical rationalization.

我要補充一點，今天最好的例子和最乾淨的例子可能是地理合理化。

We have many brands all over the world.

我們在世界各地擁有許多品牌。

They are -- different ones are strong in different markets.

他們是 - 不同的人在不同的市場中很強大。

We have historically taken a brand-by-brand approach, and now we are taking a market-by-market approach.

我們歷來採用逐個品牌的方法，現在我們採用逐個市場的方法。

And we will push the best brands in every market, and we may take some brands out of certain markets.

我們將在每個市場推出最好的品牌，我們可能會從某些市場中撤出一些品牌。

And we will do whatever is smart, both on an operational basis and on a marketing basis to advance the greater good.

我們將在運營基礎上和營銷基礎上做任何明智的事情，以促進更大的利益。

On the marketing side as an extension of that more generally, we are looking to rationalize some of our spend.

在營銷方面，作為更普遍的延伸，我們正在尋求合理化我們的一些支出。

We are looking at common measurement, common tools.

我們正在尋找共同的衡量標準，共同的工具。

These silos didn't always look at marketing the same way.

這些筒倉並不總是以相同的方式看待營銷。

They didn't always attack performance marketing with the same metrics.

他們並不總是用相同的指標來攻擊績效營銷。

We are unifying those things so that we have better ways of measurement and therefore better ways to collaborate and cooperate for the greatest return.

我們正在統一這些東西，以便我們有更好的衡量方法，從而有更好的方式來協作和合作以獲得最大回報。

On Vrbo, which I know everybody has followed closely, the trends remained fairly muted through the fourth quarter.

在我知道每個人都密切關注的 Vrbo 上，整個第四季度的趨勢仍然相當溫和。

The re-platforming last year and the rebranding were definitely a distraction, slightly different than the distractions Barry more broadly talked about.

去年的平台重塑和品牌重塑絕對是一種干擾，與巴里更廣泛談論的干擾略有不同。

But now the team is keenly refocused on fundamentals driving core operations, and they too are beneficiary of our geographic rationalization as they have looked at where they had really inefficient spend to drive recent geographies that did not make sense.

但現在該團隊敏銳地重新關注推動核心業務的基本面，他們也受益於我們的地理合理化，因為他們已經研究了他們真正低效的支出來推動最近沒有意義的地理區域。

And candidly now that we have the capacity to drive their supply through our other brands, we don't need to have Vrbo in every market in the same way because alternative accommodations can be provided to the customer base through our other brands.

坦率地說，現在我們有能力通過我們的其他品牌推動他們的供應，我們不需要以相同的方式在每個市場都有 Vrbo，因為可以通過我們的其他品牌為客戶群提供替代住宿。

Expedia Partner Solutions continues to be a very strong story for us.

Expedia 合作夥伴解決方案對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的故事。

We believe in the momentum there.

我們相信那裡的勢頭。

We believe in the opportunity to fill in gaps in demand whether they're geographical or just customer based.

我們相信有機會填補需求缺口，無論是地域性的還是基於客戶的。

And we believe that EPS can add to that momentum by capitalizing on all the things we are now going to be able to do with our core technology platform.

我們相信 EPS 可以通過利用我們現在將能夠用我們的核心技術平台做的所有事情來增加這種勢頭。

So a lot of exciting stuff going on there.

那裡發生了很多令人興奮的事情。

It will give EPS greater configurability and improve customer experience for their end business partners.

它將為 EPS 提供更大的可配置性，並改善其最終業務合作夥伴的客戶體驗。

We recently also brought Egencia together with EPS.

我們最近還將 Egencia 與 EPS 結合在一起。

We -- under a business we're calling Expedia Business Services.

我們 - 在我們稱為 Expedia Business Services 的業務下。

It's simply an effort on our part to further simplify, get advantages between businesses.

這只是我們努力進一步簡化，在企業之間獲得優勢。

These businesses are not the same.

這些業務不盡相同。

They don't -- same end users, but they have a number of common practices from which they can learn and help one another, including sales and customer management and a variety of other business-to-business techniques.

他們不是 - 相同的最終用戶，但他們有許多共同的做法，他們可以從中學習和互相幫助，包括銷售和客戶管理以及各種其他企業對企業的技術。

Our platform is perhaps the biggest story.

我們的平台也許是最大的故事。

It, in part, was to blame for this reorganization to get us to this place, but it is in many ways, our biggest opportunity.

部分原因是這次重組讓我們走到了這一步，但從很多方面來說，這是我們最大的機會。

They shared technology across our businesses in bringing together groups.

他們在我們的業務中共享技術，將團隊聚集在一起。

Barry mentioned the data and AI group.

Barry 提到了數據和 AI 組。

I am really excited about what's possible here.

我對這裡的可能性感到非常興奮。

It's early days, but for the first time, we are bringing together all the data in the company into one place where our best data scientists and AI and machine learning engineers can use that data to learn faster and build solutions across the company that will help us improve the customer experience, and obviously, our monetization.

現在還處於早期階段，但這是我們第一次將公司的所有數據集中到一個地方，我們最好的數據科學家、人工智能和機器學習工程師可以使用這些數據更快地學習並在整個公司構建解決方案，這將有助於我們改善客戶體驗，顯然，我們的貨幣化。

The teams in our marketplace have also come together and are working to better match supply with demand, which we believe, again, enhances the customer experience and enhances monetization.

我們市場中的團隊也齊心協力，努力更好地匹配供需，我們相信，這將再次增強客戶體驗並提高貨幣化。

We've also brought together a group that will monitor cloud and work on the cloud spend.

我們還召集了一個小組，負責監控雲計算並致力於雲計算支出。

I know this has been an interesting area for everybody as we have migrated to the cloud.

我知道隨著我們遷移到雲，這對每個人來說都是一個有趣的領域。

It's been a bumpy and expensive road.

這是一條坎坷而昂貴的道路。

We are getting to the end of that road.

我們正在走到那條路的盡頭。

But importantly, we are getting to a point where we need to and have to optimize our cloud spend.

但重要的是，我們已經到了需要並且必須優化雲支出的地步。

And we now have a centralized group that will look at cloud spend across the company and work to optimize that and get the most out of it and ultimately, get the leverage we've all been looking for there.

我們現在有一個集中的小組，該小組將研究整個公司的雲支出，並努力優化它並充分利用它，並最終獲得我們一直在尋找的槓桿作用。

But overall, the common themes here as we've said, are really about simplification, precision, really bringing an efficient operating mind to everything we do.

但總的來說，正如我們所說，這裡的共同主題實際上是關於簡化、精確，真正為我們所做的一切帶來高效的操作思維。

We will be aggressive about that.

我們將對此積極進取。

And we plan to get a lot out of that as we push through the year.

我們計劃在推進這一年的過程中從中獲益良多。

And we, of course, we'll keep you apprised as we get through that.

當然，我們會在我們完成這項工作時隨時通知您。

I'd just like to point out before I pass it on to Eric, that the year will be noisy, not only because of the virus, but because the first half of the year, we are getting the benefit or detriment of a slow back half of 2019.

在我將它傳遞給埃里克之前，我只想指出，這一年會很嘈雜，不僅是因為病毒，還因為今年上半年，我們正在享受緩慢回歸的好處或壞處2019年的一半。

We are also spending into our strength areas where we believe we can drive growth in the back half of the year, rationalizing out some of our less efficient spend areas.

我們還在我們認為可以在下半年推動增長的優勢領域進行投資，合理化一些效率較低的支出領域。

So there will be noise between revenue and EBITDA.

所以收入和 EBITDA 之間會有噪音。

But as I said and Barry said, we believe strongly we will be in double-digit EBITDA territory this year.

但正如我和巴里所說，我們堅信今年我們的 EBITDA 將達到兩位數。

We're excited about the future, and I think we'll have terrific momentum going into '21 if we can pull all of this off.

我們對未來感到興奮，而且我認為如果我們能夠實現所有這些目標，我們將在進入 21 世紀時擁有巨大的動力。

And with that, I will pass it on to Eric.

有了這個，我會把它傳遞給埃里克。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

Before diving into our results, I want to lay out 3 main areas we're focused on in 2020: one, driving margin expansion unit economics; two, positioning the company to move faster and invest back into key areas to accelerate top line growth; and three, delivering attractive shareholder returns.

在深入研究我們的結果之前，我想列出 2020 年我們關注的 3 個主要領域：一是推動利潤率擴張單位經濟；第二，定位公司以加快步伐並重新投資到關鍵領域以加速收入增長；第三，提供有吸引力的股東回報。

Turning to the fourth quarter results.

轉向第四季度的結果。

While gross booking and revenue trends moderated, disciplined marketing spend and overhead cost containment resulted in a 1% increase in adjusted EBITDA.

雖然總預訂量和收入趨勢放緩，但嚴格的營銷支出和管理費用控制使調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1%。

And for the full year, we came in slightly ahead of our revised guidance range.

全年，我們略高於我們修訂後的指導範圍。

The slowdown in gross bookings largely related to our air business as we started to comp the enterprise deals at Expedia Partner Solutions, which drives significant air volume for us.

總預訂量的放緩在很大程度上與我們的航空業務有關，因為我們開始在 Expedia Partner Solutions 計算企業交易，這為我們帶來了可觀的航空量。

Lodging revenue grew 9% in Q4 on 11% stayed room night growth and a 2% decrease in revenue per room night, largely related to growth in our loyalty program.

第四季度住宿收入增長 9%，入住間夜增長 11%，每間夜收入下降 2%，這主要與我們忠誠度計劃的增長有關。

Domestic room night growth remained strong, accelerating to 10% as we continued to gain share in the U.S. on the back of strong trends and direct channels.

國內間夜量增長依然強勁，加速至 10%，因為我們在強勁趨勢和直銷渠道的支持下繼續擴大在美國的市場份額。

Cost of revenue was up 19% for the quarter.

本季度的收入成本增長了 19%。

The majority of the growth related to the increase in cloud costs, inorganic impact of bodybuilding.com, and processing fees related to the ramp-up in Vrbo's transition to the Expedia payment platform.

大部分增長與云成本的增加、bodybuilding.com 的無機影響以及與 Vrbo 向 Expedia 支付平台過渡的增加相關的處理費用有關。

By leveraging Expedia's payment platform, we expect Vrbo to see improved conversion and unit economics as it benefits in several areas, including fraud detection, order completion rates and flexibility on payment options.

通過利用 Expedia 的支付平台，我們預計 Vrbo 會看到更高的轉換率和單位經濟效益，因為它在多個領域受益，包括欺詐檢測、訂單完成率和支付選項的靈活性。

Also as a reminder, bodybuilding.com is essentially neutral to adjusted EBITDA.

另外提醒一下，bodybuilding.com 對調整後的 EBITDA 基本上是中性的。

Free cash flow grew 46% for full year 2019.

2019 年全年自由現金流增長 46%。

Normalized for Vrbo's payments transition, free cash flow grew approximately in line with adjusted EBITDA to nearly $1.1 billion.

對於 Vrbo 的支付過渡正常化，自由現金流的增長與調整後的 EBITDA 大致一致，達到近 11 億美元。

Based on Vrbo's current payment structure, the funds are held at a third party and are restricted.

根據 Vrbo 目前的支付結構，資金由第三方持有並受到限制。

On a normalized basis, we expect solid free cash flow growth.

在正常化的基礎上，我們預計自由現金流將穩步增長。

And going forward with declining capital intensity and favorable working capital dynamics, we are well positioned to drive healthy free cash flow growth going forward.

隨著資本密集度的下降和有利的營運資本動態，我們有能力推動未來健康的自由現金流增長。

On the balance sheet in September, we placed $1.25 billion and 3.25% 10-year notes.

在 9 月份的資產負債表上，我們投放了 12.5 億美元和 3.25% 的 10 年期票據。

We will use a portion of that to redeem $750 million notes that mature in August 2020.

我們將使用其中的一部分贖回 2020 年 8 月到期的 7.5 億美元票據。

Our prudent approach to managing the balance sheet is unchanged, and we are committed to operating within our investment-grade credit rating.

我們管理資產負債表的審慎方法沒有改變，我們致力於在我們的投資級信用評級範圍內運營。

In terms of capital allocation, given our conviction and Expedia's growth prospects, we repurchased 5.8 million shares for $634 million from early December through this month.

在資本配置方面，鑑於我們的信念和 Expedia 的增長前景，從 12 月初到本月，我們以 6.34 億美元的價格回購了 580 萬股股票。

We believe our stock remains undervalued and plan to use our free cash flow and cash position to continue actively repurchasing shares.

我們認為我們的股票仍然被低估，併計劃利用我們的自由現金流和現金狀況繼續積極回購股票。

Now turning to 2020.

現在轉向2020年。

As Peter mentioned, we will continue to drive efficiency on direct marketing spend.

正如彼得所說，我們將繼續提高直接營銷支出的效率。

That will lead to some trade-offs and modestly slower unit growth through most of the year, but we believe focusing on higher-quality unit growth and on driving our direct business will lead to a stronger, more sustainable top and bottom line growth over time.

這將導致一年中大部分時間的一些權衡和單位增長適度放緩，但我們相信，專注於更高質量的單位增長和推動我們的直接業務將隨著時間的推移帶來更強勁、更可持續的收入和利潤增長.

On cost of sales, we expect growth to remain elevated in the next few quarters due to the same factors we saw in Q4.

在銷售成本方面，由於我們在第四季度看到的相同因素，我們預計未來幾個季度的增長將保持高位。

Our cost of sales outlook also incorporates higher digital service taxes as we currently expect legislation to take effect in additional countries this year.

我們的銷售成本展望還包括更高的數字服務稅，因為我們目前預計立法將於今年在更多國家生效。

This remains a dynamic issue and we are closely monitoring developments.

這仍然是一個動態問題，我們正在密切關注事態發展。

In terms of the quarterly phasing, it will take time to work through the carryover effects from the trends of the past 2 quarters, so we do expect the majority of our profit growth to come in the second half of 2020.

就季度階段而言，需要時間來解決過去兩個季度趨勢的結轉效應，因此我們確實預計我們的大部分利潤增長將出現在 2020 年下半年。

Now looking at Q1 specifically we expect adjusted EBITDA to be down substantially.

現在具體來看第一季度，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將大幅下降。

Vrbo losses will be significantly higher due to the usual seasonal trends as we invest to drive growth that will come later in the year.

由於通常的季節性趨勢，Vrbo 損失將顯著增加，因為我們投資以推動今年晚些時候的增長。

Cloud costs continue to ramp and will have some carryover effect from the operational headwinds that we experienced late in 2019.

云成本繼續攀升，並將對我們在 2019 年末經歷的運營逆風產生一些遺留影響。

Each of these is magnified in the first quarter as a reminder, given our seasonally low adjusted EBITDA base.

考慮到我們季節性調整後的 EBITDA 基數較低，這些中的每一個都在第一季度被放大作為提醒。

In addition, the coronavirus outbreak is adding further pressure on the top and bottom line in Q1.

此外，冠狀病毒的爆發進一步增加了第一季度的收入和利潤壓力。

Based on the current trends, we expect approximately $30 million to $40 million impact to adjusted EBITDA in Q1, and we expect some impact beyond Q1 and 2020 as well.

根據目前的趨勢，我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將受到大約 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的影響，我們預計在第一季度和 2020 年之後也會產生一些影響。

But the exact amount will depend on how long it takes for travel trends to normalize.

但確切的數量將取決於旅行趨勢恢復正常需要多長時間。

Looking below the line, we started to recognize depreciation related to our new headquarters in Q4 and forecast approximately $30 million of incremental depreciation related to the building for the full year in 2020, which will account for the majority of our depreciation growth this year.

在線下看，我們在第四季度開始確認與新總部相關的折舊，並預測 2020 年全年與建築物相關的增量折舊約為 3000 萬美元，這將占我們今年折舊增長的大部分。

In closing, we are excited.

最後，我們很興奮。

We are executing on a clear formula that we believe can create significant value, positioning the company for consistent healthy revenue growth with leverage down the P&L to drive even faster profit growth.

我們正在執行一個我們認為可以創造顯著價值的明確公式，使公司定位於持續健康的收入增長，並通過降低損益來推動更快的利潤增長。

And with strong cash conversion, we expect to generate substantial free cash flow to fund capital returns through shareholder repurchases and our dividend.

憑藉強勁的現金轉換，我們預計將產生大量自由現金流，通過股東回購和股息為資本回報提供資金。

We believe executing that formula will create significant shareholder value over time.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，執行該公式將創造可觀的股東價值。

Operator, we're ready for our first question.

接線員，我們準備好回答我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Eric Sheridan of UBS.

（操作員說明）我們將從瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Maybe one big picture and one modeling question, if I can.

如果可以的話，也許一張大圖和一個建模問題。

Barry, Peter, I wanted to know, maybe we can get a little more granularity on your vision where online travel is going over the next couple of years?

巴里、彼得，我想知道，也許我們可以更詳細地了解您對未來幾年在線旅遊發展方向的看法？

And then filling that back to how you're thinking about the exposure to those big trends and whether Expedia has the right assets or not, how we should be thinking about aligning the assets within Expedia against your longer-term vision where online travel's going?

然後再回到你如何考慮這些大趨勢的風險以及 Expedia 是否擁有合適的資產，我們應該如何考慮將 Expedia 內的資產與你在線旅行的長期願景相結合？

And then on the model, with the $300 million to $500 million of cost savings, is there a way to think through what that might mean on a division-by-division basis or where you see the biggest areas where you could gain leverage in your model year-on-year from cost cutting?

然後在模型上，隨著 3 億到 5 億美元的成本節省，是否有一種方法可以在逐個部門的基礎上思考這可能意味著什麼，或者您可以在哪些領域看到您可以在您的業務中獲得影響力的最大領域通過削減成本實現同比模型？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, look, online travel started 20-some-odd years ago.

好吧，你看，在線旅遊始於 20 多年前。

That was the easiest area to colonize when the Internet came along.

當互聯網出現時，那是最容易殖民的地區。

There's no indication that it is going to do anything but continue to gain adoption.

沒有跡象表明它將繼續獲得採用。

There's been a lot of adoption.

有很多采用。

It will continue to grow.

它將繼續增長。

There's nothing in its path.

它的路徑上沒有任何東西。

There are existential issues that have been raised.

已經提出了存在的問題。

Of course, one is Google.

當然，一個是谷歌。

And the other, I just heard the other day, it's an existential issue, which is that we're losing share to hotels.

另一方面，我前幾天剛聽說，這是一個存在的問題，那就是我們正在失去酒店的份額。

I'll start with hotels first because this was in a -- I think it was an analyst who's -- it must be Heath Terry who I think has been consistently wrong about -- actually if you had paid attention to him at my other companies, IAC, you would have given up, I don't know, an enormous billions of dollars.

我首先從酒店開始，因為這是一個——我認為這是一個分析師——我認為他一定是希思特里，他一直是錯誤的——實際上，如果你在我的其他公司關注過他的話，IAC，你會放棄，我不知道，巨大的數十億美元。

But anyway, I don't want to do that.

但無論如何，我不想那樣做。

It's pointless.

沒有用。

The point is that he said that hotels were -- gaining strength, gaining share, et cetera.

關鍵是他說酒店正在——獲得實力、獲得份額等等。

So here are the stats.

所以這是統計數據。

For the business of, a whole business, the OTA share of online hotel bookings has basically remained steady at about 38%, I don't know, for many, many years.

對於整個業務來說，在線酒店預訂的 OTA 份額基本上穩定在 38% 左右，我不知道，很多很多年了。

But the OTAs continue to gain share in the overall market as this shift goes -- continues to go online.

但隨著這種轉變的進行——繼續上線，OTA 在整個市場中繼續獲得份額。

For instance from 2015, it's gone from 17% to 19%.

例如，從 2015 年開始，它從 17% 上升到 19%。

And at Expedia, our total room nights continue to grow, 11.2% [share in the U.S.] (added by company after the call) in '19 versus 10.5%.

在 Expedia，我們的總間夜數繼續增長，19 年為 11.2% [在美國的份額]（由公司在電話會議後添加），而 10.5%。

So I would say, yes, there are some direct channels that people like to use.

所以我會說，是的，人們喜歡使用一些直接渠道。

But overwhelmingly, people use online agents to book hotels and are going to continue to do so.

但絕大多數情況下，人們使用在線代理來預訂酒店，並將繼續這樣做。

As far as Google is concerned, it's a much bigger topic.

就谷歌而言，這是一個更大的話題。

I've been quite vocal about this that Google has, certainly, a monopoly share all over the world.

我一直直言不諱地指出，谷歌在全球範圍內無疑擁有壟斷份額。

And it does what monopoly shares get you to do, which is extend its business in every direction they can.

它會做壟斷股份讓你做的事情，即向各個方向擴展其業務。

Now so long as they don't use unfair practices, I've got no problem with that.

現在只要他們不使用不公平的做法，我就沒有問題。

But when they compete against their advertisers, and we are one of their largest advertisers, we have Booking.com within their top 5 of advertisers.

但是當他們與他們的廣告商競爭時，而我們是他們最大的廣告商之一，我們的 Booking.com 就位列他們廣告商的前 5 名。

They're using their tactics to squeeze these entities that are delivering real service is, among many things, antisocial.

他們正在使用他們的策略來擠壓這些提供真正服務的實體，其中許多是反社會的。

I mean I think it's bad practice.

我的意思是我認為這是不好的做法。

I think the government, which is getting engaged in this, whether it's at the state level or the federal level, which I absolutely believe in the next period, I don't think I ask anybody to come and save us from our mistakes.

我認為政府，無論是在州一級還是聯邦一級，都參與其中，我絕對相信在下一個時期，我不認為我要求任何人來把我們從錯誤中拯救出來。

And by the way, we've made our own mistakes in our SEO practices, which we are fast correcting.

順便說一下，我們在 SEO 實踐中犯了自己的錯誤，我們正在快速糾正這些錯誤。

I told the senior management of Google exactly what we feel about this and have implored upon them to basically stop actually taking away the profits from businesses that are probably one of their main contributors to their advertising revenue.

我把我們對此的感受告訴了谷歌的高級管理層，並懇求他們基本上停止實際從可能是他們廣告收入的主要貢獻者之一的企業中拿走利潤。

And I don't know whether that will have much effect, but I've been very straightforward about it.

我不知道這是否會產生很大影響，但我對此非常直截了當。

And I think that there will be -- look, when businesses get to this size, they absolutely have to have regulation, sensible regulation.

而且我認為會有 - 看，當企業達到這種規模時，他們絕對必須有監管，明智的監管。

I'm not talking about breakups, I'm not talking about any crazy stuff.

我不是在談論分手，我不是在談論任何瘋狂的事情。

But I do believe that will happen.

但我相信那會發生。

But we are making our own efforts.

但我們正在努力。

We're driving direct relationships with consumers.

我們正在推動與消費者的直接關係。

Our app downloads, we have about 400 million of them [cumulatively] (added by company after the call).

我們的應用程序下載量，我們 [累計] 大約有 4 億次（由公司在電話會議後添加）。

And their [transaction] (added by company after the call) growth, like a force, was actually up 40% [last] (corrected by company after the call) year.

他們的[交易]（由公司在電話會議後添加）增長，就像一股力量，實際上 [去年]（由公司在電話會議後更正）增長了 40%。

We're going to drive more downloads.

我們將推動更多下載。

We're going to do everything we can to diversify our traffic to more direct arenas.

我們將盡一切努力將我們的流量分散到更直接的競技場。

We also have in EPS, our business-to-business business, which does not depend upon Google.

我們還有 EPS，我們的企業對企業業務，不依賴於 Google。

And that's growing terrifically, and we're going to push that too.

而且這種增長非常快，我們也將推動它。

So sorry, I went on a bit.

很抱歉，我繼續說了一點。

But as I said, I haven't done this in a while.

但正如我所說，我已經有一段時間沒有這樣做了。

Peter, do you want to say anything?

彼得，你想說什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I would just add to that a couple of things.

我只想補充幾件事。

One, around the question of cost savings by division, that's something we really can't identify yet and won't identify.

第一，圍繞部門節省成本的問題，這是我們目前還無法確定也不會確定的事情。

There's a lot of shared costs and a lot of -- we're doing more to make the businesses collaborate.

有很多分攤成本和很多——我們正在做更多的工作來讓企業合作。

So I think it's really not helpful even for you, I think, long term, to think of it on a by-division basis.

所以我認為，從長遠來看，即使對你來說，在按部門的基礎上考慮它也真的沒有幫助。

I think we're looking across shared opportunities, shared inefficiencies and where we can get out of things that don't make sense and eliminate friction.

我認為我們正在尋找共同的機會、共同的低效率以及我們可以從哪些方面擺脫沒有意義的事情並消除摩擦。

And so I think it's something we're looking for anywhere it exists, and it's not a division-by-division question.

所以我認為這是我們在任何存在的地方尋找的東西，而不是一個按部門劃分的問題。

I think also just to add to Barry's point at the end about EPS, and you asked whether we have the right assets to compete.

我想也只是為了補充 Barry 最後關於 EPS 的觀點，你問我們是否擁有合適的資產來競爭。

I think actually we have terrific assets to compete.

我認為實際上我們有很棒的資產可以競爭。

We've got brands that are strong in certain places and not in others.

我們的品牌在某些地方很強大，而在其他地方則不強。

We've got -- and vice versa.

我們有——反之亦然。

We've got to do a better job of differentiating our brands and the customer proposition that our brands provide.

我們必須更好地區分我們的品牌和我們品牌提供的客戶主張。

But we have a lot of ways to serve a lot of different demand.

但是我們有很多方法可以滿足很多不同的需求。

And we're using EPS to fill in the gaps and serve geographies and certain demand pools that we can't get at directly.

我們正在使用 EPS 來填補空白，並為我們無法直接獲得的地理區域和某些需求池提供服務。

So I think we have a very attractive way to go eat as much gross bookings as are out there in the world, and that's what we're going to try to do as efficiently as we can.

所以我認為我們有一種非常有吸引力的方式來吃掉世界上盡可能多的總預訂量，這就是我們將盡可能高效地嘗試做的事情。

Our next question from Mark Mahaney of RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Mark Mahaney。

Barry, it's nice to have you back on the call.

巴里，很高興你回來接聽電話。

I think the question I want to focus on is Vrbo...

我想我想關注的問題是 Vrbo ...

So count your blessings it's not going to go on that long.

所以算上你的祝福，它不會持續那麼久。

The -- I think I want to ask you about is a high level, the growth in the lodging business between alternative accommodations in Vrbo and the growth in core kind of hotel industry as you've kind of -- looking at it from a 30,000-foot level for a while and you're now getting back into the weeds, where are you most -- where do you think the growth is most interesting for the industry and for Expedia in particular?

我想我想問你的是一個高層次的問題，Vrbo 的替代住宿和核心酒店業的增長之間的住宿業務的增長——從 30,000 的角度來看-腳水平了一段時間，你現在又回到了雜草叢中，你在哪裡 - 你認為增長對行業尤其是 Expedia 來說最有趣？

And how confident are you that if the -- it does seem from where we sit that the growth is superior in the alternative accommodations.

你有多大信心，如果 - 從我們所處的位置來看，替代住宿的增長確實更好。

Is Vrbo where you need it to be?

Vrbo 在您需要的地方嗎？

It seems like you've gone through like a branding strategy part a, branding part b over the last 2 years.

在過去的 2 年裡，您似乎經歷了品牌戰略 a 部分、品牌 b 部分。

Is Vrbo where you need it to be in terms of operations, in terms of marketing, et cetera, in order to attack that alternative accommodations market?

Vrbo 在運營、營銷等方面是否符合您的要求，以便進軍替代住宿市場？

No.

不。

Vrbo is not where it needs to be, but it is a lot different than it was, I'd say, a few months ago.

Vrbo 不是它需要的地方，但它與幾個月前有很大不同。

It has a new leader who we have confidence in, and he's also on the ground.

它有一位我們有信心的新領導人，他也在實地工作。

And look, what happened to Vrbo is, it was as I think all of you know, a collection of a bunch of disparate businesses, brands all over the world, basically, that were brought together and put under the name of -- dumb name, called HomeAway, and -- which meant nothing to no one.

看，發生在 Vrbo 上的事情是，我想你們都知道，一群來自世界各地的不同企業、品牌，基本上，它們被聚集在一起，並以——愚蠢的名字命名，稱為 HomeAway，並且 - 這對任何人來說都毫無意義。

We did have one business called Vrbo that did mean something to people.

我們確實有一項名為 Vrbo 的業務，它確實對人們有意義。

And so called V-R-B-O, which we've tried and I think -- or at the very beginning of branding Vrbo.

所謂的 V-R-B-O，我們已經嘗試過並且我認為 - 或者在品牌 Vrbo 的最開始。

And whether I don't know if we went too fast, actually, or too slow on this, but we did this absolute change Day 1 to Day 2, from everything to then one thing Vrbo.

我不知道我們在這方面是走得太快了，還是太慢了，但我們從第一天到第二天做了這個絕對的改變，從一切到 Vrbo。

That caused us to lose a ton of SEO traffic.

這導致我們損失了大量的 SEO 流量。

And given the trends in SEO, anyway, that was hardly -- it was not well executed, I mean.

考慮到 SEO 的趨勢，無論如何，這很難——我的意思是它執行得不好。

So we've been now cleaning all of that up.

所以我們現在一直在清理所有這些。

And I think it's -- I don't know, somebody here, one of my colleagues may comment on the progress of that to date.

我認為這是——我不知道，這裡有人，我的一位同事可能會對迄今為止的進展發表評論。

But look, Vrbo is in a great, actually, somewhat stand-alone category.

但是你看，Vrbo 屬於一個很棒的，實際上，有點獨立的類別。

It's not kind of rooms that in the attic that people rent you and stand next to you while you go to the bathroom.

在閣樓上，人們租用您並在您去洗手間時站在您旁邊的房間不是那種房間。

It is basically accommodations, a family of homes, large apartments, things like that in resort areas and other places.

它基本上是住宿、家庭住宅、大公寓，以及度假區和其他地方的住宿。

It's got great product.

它有很棒的產品。

We just need to market it better than we have, but it's got, I think, it's got -- certainly, it's got large opportunity for us.

我們只需要比我們更好地推銷它，但我認為，它有——當然，它為我們帶來了巨大的機會。

And we've also just plugged it into Expedia recently.

我們最近也剛剛將其接入 Expedia。

That took 6 months of somewhat disarray.

這花了 6 個月的時間，有些混亂。

But now all of Vrbo, I think, is available on Expedia, is that true?

但我認為，現在所有 Vrbo 都可以在 Expedia 上使用，這是真的嗎？

Or...

或者...

Yes.

是的。

It might be.

有可能。

Almost all.

大概全部。

And -- but that was a difficult thing.

而且 - 但這是一件困難的事情。

As far as the category, I -- look, I'm very impressed with what Airbnb has done over time.

至於類別，我 - 看，我對 Airbnb 隨著時間的推移所做的事情印象深刻。

I wouldn't call it a revolution, but it has opened up -- not only has it opened up inventory that didn't exist, but it's also brought people into traveling that couldn't afford it before or didn't want to mess with big, stiff hotels.

我不認為這是一場革命，但它已經打開了——它不僅打開了不存在的庫存，而且還讓以前買不起或不想亂七八糟的人開始旅行大而僵硬的酒店。

And also people who wanted a different experience, older people who were lonely and didn't want to go to some cold place.

還有那些想要不同體驗的人，那些孤獨又不想去寒冷地方的老年人。

It's done a great job.

它做得很好。

But basically -- but by the way, you put its inventory as against the hotel inventory, they have kind of different audience.

但基本上 - 但順便說一下，你將其庫存與酒店庫存進行比較，他們有不同的受眾。

I'm not -- I don't -- I'm not a big believer that they're going to emerge.

我不是——我不——我不太相信他們會出現。

So I think there's a very healthy standard hotel business, and there's going to be this business.

所以我認為有一個非常健康的標準酒店業務，並且將會有這個業務。

We're participants in it.

我們是其中的參與者。

So that's as much as I got to say about that.

所以這就是我要說的。

We'll take our next question from Justin Post, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們將從美銀美林的賈斯汀·波斯特那裡回答下一個問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Barry, maybe you can give us an update on CEO outlook and how you're thinking about that role going forward?

巴里，也許你可以向我們介紹一下 CEO 的最新前景，以及你對未來這個角色的看法？

And then, secondly, I thought it was interesting, in your prepared remarks talked about improved revenue growth.

然後，其次，我認為這很有趣，在您準備好的發言中談到了收入增長的改善。

Is that just as you take out the fact this year, easier comps next year?

這是否就像你今年排除事實一樣，明年更容易進行比較？

Or do you see some real drivers for improvement in revenue growth as you look out to the second half and next year?

或者，當您展望下半年和明年時，您是否看到了一些真正推動收入增長改善的因素？

Okay.

好的。

We're not doing a CEO search.

我們不是在尋找 CEO。

I don't know that we'll ever do an actual search.

我不知道我們是否會進行實際搜索。

I'm not a big believer in "searches".

我不太相信“搜索”。

I think they usually turn out the usual and obvious suspects.

我認為他們通常會成為常見且明顯的嫌疑人。

And when you only know somebody from interviewing and recommendations, I'd say your failure rate is usually -- certainly, it's above 50%, in my experience, other peoples' for sure.

當你只通過面試和推薦認識某人時，我會說你的失敗率通常是——當然，它超過 50%，根據我的經驗，其他人肯定是這樣。

Anyway, we're not doing that.

無論如何，我們不會那樣做。

I'll say this.

我會說這個。

First of all, Peter and I are completely engaged.

首先，彼得和我完全投入。

We are operating the company.

我們正在經營公司。

We are responsible for the company, and we are -- definitely, it is our responsibility.

我們對公司負責，而且我們——當然，這是我們的責任。

That is not to say that during the calendar year '20, a Chief Executive will emerge from this process.

這並不是說在 20 日曆年期間，首席執行官將從這一過程中脫穎而出。

But right now, look, time will tell.

但是現在，看，時間會證明一切。

But what happened is, amazingly, once we had to make this management changes, unfortunate management change, and I've said before, it was not to demean Mark Okerstrom or the CFO, but it really was a real difference in what we actually thought, and that happens.

但令人驚訝的是，一旦我們不得不進行這種管理變革，不幸的管理變革，我之前說過，這並不是貶低 Mark Okerstrom 或首席財務官，但這確實是我們實際想法的真正差異，然後就發生了。

So there's no damning here.

所以這裡沒有詛咒。

But from that moment, I got incredibly energized about this because I actually began, other than superficially, as the Chairman.

但從那一刻起，我對此充滿了難以置信的活力，因為我實際上開始擔任主席，而不是表面上。

I began to really understand the levers of this business and what the opportunities were and what the condition of the company was.

我開始真正了解這項業務的槓桿以及機會是什麼以及公司的狀況。

Now I thought, relatively quickly, we could turn.

現在我想，相對來說，我們可以轉向了。

So we're at it.

所以我們開始了。

And it's not going to last beyond '20, but that's where we are for now.

它不會持續超過 20 年，但這就是我們現在的處境。

As far as drivers for revenue growth, Mr. Kern?

至於收入增長的驅動因素，克恩先生？

Sure.

當然。

So Justin, I think the way we look at the revenue drivers, it's not a comp issue.

所以賈斯汀，我認為我們看待收入驅動因素的方式，這不是補償問題。

We want to drive healthy -- as much healthy revenue growth as we can find.

我們希望推動健康——盡可能多地實現健康的收入增長。

In the near term, we are in a period where we are coming off a weaker back half of '19, so that's a dulling effect.

在短期內，我們正處於 19 年後半段較弱的時期，所以這是一種遲鈍的影響。

And we are being very clinical about as I mentioned, geographies and marketing spend and trying to get rid of empty calories.

正如我提到的，我們對地域和營銷支出非常謹慎，並試圖擺脫空卡路里。

It's not a bad thing to drive performance marketing and to drive throughput when you're good at getting repeat customers and you're good at turning them into being great customers.

當您善於吸引回頭客並且善於將他們變成偉大的客戶時，推動績效營銷和推動吞吐量並不是一件壞事。

But when you're not as good as you could be, it's not the most efficient use of capital.

但是，當你沒有達到應有的水平時，這就不是最有效地利用資本。

So we want to get better at all of those things.

因此，我們希望在所有這些方面做得更好。

And so in the near term, I think you'll see some pressure on the top line from those movements, which we think are very healthy.

因此，在短期內，我認為你會看到這些運動對收入造成一些壓力，我們認為這些運動非常健康。

But out of that, we believe we will find much better ways to invest our capital geographically, by brand.

但除此之外，我們相信我們會找到更好的方法來按品牌在地理上投資我們的資本。

We think we will do a better job of repeat business and direct customer experience because we will be better at the customer experience side of the business.

我們認為我們會在重複業務和直接客戶體驗方面做得更好，因為我們會在業務的客戶體驗方面做得更好。

We have huge leverage that we can't even really calculate that will come out of the platform technology group, whether it be the data and AI side, the management and yield side, the cloud -- there's just a number of places where we can just do a lot better.

我們擁有巨大的影響力，我們甚至無法真正計算出來自平台技術組的影響力，無論是數據和人工智能方面、管理和收益方面，還是雲——我們只有很多地方可以做得更好。

And so we believe all of those things will drive conversion, will drive better customer experience, will drive stickier customer relationships, will allow us to invest more aggressively, and all of those things will accelerate revenue going forward.

因此，我們相信所有這些都會推動轉化，推動更好的客戶體驗，推動更緊密的客戶關係，讓我們能夠更積極地投資，所有這些都會加速未來的收入。

We'll take our next question from Justin Patterson of Raymond James.

我們將從 Raymond James 的 Justin Patterson 那裡接受下一個問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Barry, you called out the consumer experience and your initial remarks, that and loyalty.

巴里，你提到了消費者體驗和你最初的評論，那就是忠誠度。

What are the key things you need to do to get right, to improve the customer experience and build loyalty?

您需要做哪些關鍵事情才能做好，改善客戶體驗並建立忠誠度？

Well, look, one of the things I think we suffered from is -- so would you believe, we lost attention on the product itself.

嗯，看，我認為我們遭受的其中一件事是 - 你會相信，我們失去了對產品本身的關注。

What the consumers get, what do they see?

消費者得到了什麼，他們看到了什麼？

How do they interact with it?

他們如何與之互動？

What is the user experience, et cetera, et cetera?

什麼是用戶體驗等等？

How do we not only ease their path to travel, but how do we really add value?

我們如何不僅讓他們的旅行更輕鬆，而且我們如何真正增加價值？

And so one of the things that has come out of this is now an absolute focus on what that experience is.

因此，由此產生的其中一件事就是現在絕對關注那種體驗。

That's where a lot of the organization and investment is going to come from.

這就是許多組織和投資的來源。

And by the way, it's investment in focus and time.

順便說一句，這是對注意力和時間的投資。

It's not investment really in cost.

這不是真正的成本投資。

But making that -- look, OTAs have not had, in my opinion, enough differentiation.

但是，在我看來，OTA 還沒有足夠的差異化。

And differentiation, meaning that Expedia, which has the benefit, the only one that's got the benefit.

而差異化，意味著 Expedia 是唯一受益的公司。

I mean I've gotten those would -- poured money into it.

我的意思是我已經得到了那些 - 將錢投入其中。

It has the benefit of being able to get you hotels, air, cars, experiences.

它的好處是能夠為您提供酒店、機票、汽車和體驗。

Anything you need in travel is in one place at Expedia.

在 Expedia，旅行中所需的一切盡在一處。

It is not -- certainly, it has not been as efficient as Booking.com in hotels, particularly in Western Europe, though in the United States it's been fine.

它不是——當然，它在酒店方面不如 Booking.com 高效，尤其是在西歐，儘管在美國還不錯。

But that's a solitary diet, and that's fine for some people.

但這是一種單獨的飲食，對某些人來說很好。

But if you come to Expedia, increasingly, you're going to have a product that is actually going to not only ease the process, but it's going to add value to the process because we're the only ones who can really package.

但如果你越來越多地來到 Expedia，你將擁有一種產品，它實際上不僅會簡化流程，而且會增加流程的價值，因為我們是唯一可以真正打包的人。

We're the only ones who can efficiently put things together and magically offer people a lower price and probably a better experience.

我們是唯一能夠有效地將東西組合在一起並神奇地為人們提供更低價格和更好體驗的人。

So it's -- anyway, I think I kind of said it.

所以它 - 無論如何，我想我有點說過了。

And then I would...

然後我會...

On loyalty?

靠忠誠？

Peter will talk about.

彼得會談到。

Okay.

好的。

I'll talk about loyalty, but I was going to add that...

我會談論忠誠度，但我要補充一點......

Oh, I'm sorry.

哦，對不起。

No, that's okay.

不，沒關係。

The -- I would say that the industry has suffered or benefited from a high degree of commercialization around everything they did.

- 我想說的是，該行業圍繞他們所做的一切進行了高度商業化，或從中受益。

It was an aggressive, how can we turn a customer into a consumer, into a buying a hotel room?

這是一個激進的問題，我們如何才能將客戶轉變為消費者，轉變為購買酒店房間？

And that goes for all OTAs.

這適用於所有 OTA。

And I think ironically to tie a few of these questions together, that Google's pressure and the pressure on performance marketing puts the pressure back on all of us to make it really about the consumer experience.

我認為具有諷刺意味的是，將這些問題中的一些聯繫在一起，谷歌的壓力和績效營銷的壓力給我們所有人帶來了壓力，讓我們真正關註消費者體驗。

You can't just cash your ticket every time and not have the consumer feel like they're having a great experience and they have a reason to come back.

您不能每次都只是兌現您的機票，而不會讓消費者覺得他們有很好的體驗並且他們有理由回來。

So it's on us to do.

所以這是我們要做的。

There's a lot of work streams going on against that.

有很多工作流程反對這一點。

It covers a lot of activities, including what you serve up to the customer and how well you match content and supply with them, all the way through to how you take care of customer service calls and everything else.

它涵蓋了很多活動，包括您為客戶提供的服務以及您如何匹配內容並提供給他們，一直到您如何處理客戶服務電話和其他一切。

So we are on that path, and we are aggressively focused on that.

所以我們正走在這條道路上，我們積極專注於此。

And we may have Google and the rest to thank for driving us there, but we should have been there, and we will be there.

我們可能要感謝谷歌和其他公司將我們帶到那裡，但我們應該在那裡，我們會在那裡。

As for loyalty, it's an important part of our consumer proposition from Hotels.com.

至於忠誠度，這是我們來自 Hotels.com 的消費者主張的重要組成部分。

Again, we are going to strive to better differentiate our brands.

同樣，我們將努力更好地區分我們的品牌。

Barry took you through the end-to-end opportunity that brand Expedia offers.

Barry 帶您了解了 Expedia 品牌提供的端到端機會。

Hotels.com is another thing, Vrbo again another thing.

Hotels.com 是另一回事，Vrbo 又是另一回事。

So we are going to differentiate those and drive to the biggest pools of demand.

因此，我們將區分這些並推動最大的需求池。

We can take them all, and hopefully, they will work symbiotically and to the greater benefit.

我們可以接受所有這些，並希望它們能夠共生並帶來更大的利益。

We'll take our next question from Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley.

我們將從摩根士丹利的布賴恩諾瓦克那裡接受下一個問題。

Barry, it's good to hear your energy.

巴里，很高興聽到你的能量。

I guess I wanted to sort of ask about your view over the next 2 to 3 years for the company.

我想我想問問你對公司未來 2 到 3 年的看法。

So understanding that the near term, focusing more on higher-quality room night growth, rationalizing some ad spend, really focusing on direct, it's going to pressure near-term room nights.

因此，了解近期，更多地關注更高質量的間夜增長，合理化一些廣告支出，真正關注直接，這將對近期間夜產生壓力。

But talk to us about how you think about the keys to really driving sustained faster room night growth in '21, '22 and beyond after you sort of get through the important steps you're going to take in 2020?

但是，在您完成 2020 年要採取的重要步驟之後，您如何看待真正推動 21 年、22 年及以後持續更快的間夜增長的關鍵？

Continued execution and focus, and not resting, not being very patient.

繼續執行和專注，而不是休息，不是很有耐心。

That is one of the things that we're going to have to imbue in this organization.

這是我們必須在這個組織中灌輸的事情之一。

And again -- look, I think the outlook is good.

再一次——看，我認為前景很好。

It's got some challenges.

它有一些挑戰。

I'm less worried now, having gotten into it, about these existential challenges than I was before I got into it.

與進入之前相比，我現在已經不那麼擔心這些存在的挑戰了。

Those are what they are.

他們就是這樣。

But Expedia has, with its brands, with differentiation, within -- by the way, increased, hopefully more interesting forms of loyalty, rewards and things like that, Expedia is going to be able to, which I think it's going to be able to do as against its competitors, I think we're going to be able to build up loyalty.

但 Expedia 憑藉其品牌和差異化，在 - 順便說一句，增加了，希望更有趣的忠誠度，獎勵和類似的形式，Expedia 將能夠，我認為它能夠與其競爭對手一樣，我認為我們將能夠建立忠誠度。

The whole concept of all of this was you paid a lot for your first experience with an OTA with what you did in advertising, but you were hoping for the second.

所有這一切的整個概念是，你為第一次使用 OTA 的體驗付出了很多，但你卻希望獲得第二次體驗。

From now on, it's going to be the second, third and fourth for us because what we're -- because all we're really -- which I'd say driving ourselves down to is this kind of pragmatic focus on the, basically, the varieties, which is what is the experience?

從現在開始，這將是我們的第二個、第三個和第四個，因為我們是——因為我們真的是——我想說的是，我們要努力做到的是這種務實的關注，基本上，品種，這是什麼體驗？

We are -- we have chased the tail.

我們是——我們追到了尾巴。

The tail was pretty good to start off.

尾巴很好開始。

Online travel started off with a boom because it was an obvious better experience.

在線旅遊開始蓬勃發展，因為它顯然是一種更好的體驗。

It's kind of raw.

這有點生。

But we have simply chased it with -- look, working on conversion, working on all those things is good.

但我們只是簡單地追逐它——看，致力於轉換，致力於所有這些事情是好的。

But the reason that I think 2, 3, 5, 10 years from today, Expedia can continue to actually beat its competition is because of what we're focusing on now.

但我認為 2、3、5、10 年後，Expedia 可以繼續真正擊敗競爭對手的原因是因為我們現在關注的是什麼。

That would give us -- we won't have to do -- we don't have to look for other pools.

這將使我們——我們不必這樣做——我們不必尋找其他池。

There's enough there for us.

對我們來說已經足夠了。

If we just get back to pragmatic focus on streamlining our business, simplifying our business.

如果我們回到務實的重點，精簡我們的業務，簡化我們的業務。

As I said before, we were a bloated organization.

正如我之前所說，我們是一個臃腫的組織。

I mean not because people were lazy or whatever, but over the years, just chasing the tail of growth and all that, we're just adding people, and people, and complexity, and all this stuff until, frankly, very few people could figure out what the hell they were supposed to do during the day.

我的意思不是因為人們懶惰或其他原因，而是多年來，我們只是追逐增長的尾巴等等，我們只是在增加人、人、複雜性，以及所有這些東西，直到坦率地說，很少有人能做到弄清楚他們白天到底應該做什麼。

So simplifying that has a great by-product of cutting our costs.

因此，簡化有一個很好的副產品，可以降低我們的成本。

Our costs were too high.

我們的成本太高了。

And our costs are going to come down beyond this first level of $300 million to $500 million over the future.

在未來，我們的成本將超過 3 億至 5 億美元的第一個水平。

Because we are going to simplify.

因為我們要簡化。

Simplifying lets us pay attention.

簡化讓我們注意。

If we pay attention, given the opportunity, I am not worried about 2 or 3 years.

如果我們注意，如果有機會，我不擔心 2 或 3 年。

We'll take our next question from Deepak Mathivanan of Barclays.

我們將從巴克萊銀行的 Deepak Mathivanan 那裡回答下一個問題。

So 2 quick ones from us.

所以我們有 2 個快速的。

First, can you elaborate on the cost savings.

首先，您能否詳細說明節省的成本。

You noted that the expected cost savings to reach $300 million, $500 million run rate.

您指出，預計成本節約將達到 3 億美元，運行率為 5 億美元。

Should we assume this progression to be relatively linear?

我們是否應該假設這種進展是相對線性的？

Just trying to understand how much is factored in the low double-digit EBITDA guidance.

只是想了解低兩位數的 EBITDA 指導中有多少因素。

And then the second question about coronavirus.

然後是關于冠狀病毒的第二個問題。

Is the impact currently largely contained to Asia Pacific?

目前影響主要集中在亞太地區嗎？

Or is there demand softness in other markets as well?

或者其他市場是否也存在需求疲軟？

I'm just going to spout out something here on the virus thing.

我只是想在這裡就病毒問題大談特談。

I think it's going much beyond it.

我認為它遠遠超出了它。

I think people are worried.

我認為人們很擔心。

People are just saying -- I mean, they're all over the place.

人們只是說——我的意思是，他們到處都是。

New York City people are in buses and subways with masks on.

紐約市民戴著口罩乘坐公共汽車和地鐵。

I think there's been one case reported in New York.

我想紐約已經報導了一例。

So I think this is a damper.

所以我認為這是一個阻尼器。

How far this goes, I mean, a week ago, it was supposed to kind of be lessening.

這走了多遠，我的意思是，一周前，它應該會有所減輕。

And yesterday, it again shot up in terms of the infected cases and I guess death.

昨天，感染病例再次激增，我猜是死亡。

I mean do we have a pandemic?

我的意思是我們有大流行病嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I have to believe that now the activism of every country in the world on this is going to contain it quickly.

我不得不相信，現在世界上每個國家在這方面的積極行動將很快遏制它。

Now by the way, that's a statement with no facts and no knowledge, so you can all toss it.

現在順便說一下，這是一個沒有事實、沒有知識的說法，所以你們都可以扔掉它。

But we don't truly know the extent of it.

但我們並不真正知道它的範圍。

And it is going beyond Asia, and it will go beyond Asia.

它正在超越亞洲，也將超越亞洲。

Yes.

是的。

And Deepak, this is Peter.

迪帕克，這是彼得。

I would just -- to your question of the timing and how to think about the expenses, I'm afraid we're not going to give you much satisfaction here.

對於你關於時間和如何考慮費用的問題，恐怕我們不會在這裡給你太多的滿足感。

This is a work in progress across literally the entire company in all pockets of spend and all activities.

這是一項涉及整個公司所有支出和所有活動的正在進行的工作。

And we are making progress on many, many fronts, but some will take time to germinate and some will be sooner.

我們在很多很多方面都取得了進展，但有些需要時間才能發芽，有些會更快。

And you'll know as soon as we know, but we can't give you much color, except to say obviously as we take these things out and they stack up, they obviously get better as the quarters -- they should -- we should get more savings as the quarters go by.

我們一知道你就會知道，但我們不能給你太多顏色，只是很明顯地說，當我們把這些東西拿出來，它們堆積起來，它們顯然會隨著季度的增長而變得更好——他們應該——我們隨著季度的流逝，應該會節省更多。

But how much and how volatile that number is, it's still pretty early to tell.

但這個數字有多少以及波動有多大，現在下結論還為時過早。

So we're committed to getting through it in an orderly fashion in a way that helps the business and doesn't break something new.

因此，我們致力於以一種有利於業務且不會破壞新事物的方式有序地完成它。

And we believe we can get through the lion's share of that by the end of the year and be kind of at our full run rate.

我們相信我們可以在年底前完成其中的大部分，並達到我們的全速運轉。

But again, it's across so many things that it would be impossible to give you a schedule of that.

但同樣，它涉及很多事情，不可能給你一個時間表。

I'll just add one more thing because I think it should be said, which is, this process of simplifying our business and lowering our cost has an effect, obviously on people.

我再補充一件事，因為我認為應該說的是，這個簡化我們的業務和降低成本的過程顯然對人有影響。

We have been in the process of going through this over the last, at least, month.

至少在過去一個月裡，我們一直在經歷這個過程。

I have never seen a process like this.

我從未見過這樣的過程。

I keep saying at my colleagues that are involved, how impressed I am with the thoughtfulness the deliberations that go on in every part, because this is not just saying, okay, there's one little piece of the company.

我一直對參與其中的同事說，每一部分的深思熟慮給我留下了深刻的印象，因為這不僅僅是說，好吧，這是公司的一小部分。

Every one of our senior leaders has participated in this.

我們的每一位高層領導都參與其中。

And in a way, I almost feel like we should publish the process we've gone through because I've never -- look, I have been around, and I have been through a lot of these processes.

在某種程度上，我幾乎覺得我們應該公佈我們經歷過的過程，因為我從來沒有——看，我一直在身邊，而且我經歷了很多這樣的過程。

I've never seen one as thoughtfully and decently done as this and the plan for communications is -- I mean I'm sure we'll make mistakes here or there, but it's just impressive anyway.

我從來沒有見過像這樣周到和體面的人，溝通計劃是——我的意思是我相信我們會在這里或那裡犯錯誤，但無論如何它都令人印象深刻。

We'll take our next question from Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank.

我們將從德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley 那裡回答下一個問題。

This is Chris on for Lloyd.

這是勞埃德的克里斯。

How are you guys thinking about driving app downloads from here?

你們如何考慮從這裡推動應用程序下載？

It seems like you guys have gotten some good download growth.

看來你們的下載量增長不錯。

But should we be thinking about a rebuild of the app?

但是我們應該考慮重建應用程序嗎？

Or spending to drive app downloads?

還是花錢推動應用下載？

Or expanding a loyalty program?

或者擴大忠誠度計劃？

Yes, just any color you can share beyond what you guys have shared so far.

是的，除了你們目前分享的顏色之外，您可以分享任何顏色。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Lloyd.

謝謝你的問題，勞埃德。

I think the specifics are -- take place on many fronts.

我認為具體情況是——發生在許多方面。

This isn't a rebuild or anything else.

這不是重建或其他任何東西。

In fact as you probably know as well as Barry and I, the company has been moving to PWA to drive mobile abilities across our brands.

事實上，正如我和 Barry 所知道的那樣，公司一直在轉向 PWA 以推動我們品牌的移動能力。

That trend solution has taken time.

該趨勢解決方案需要時間。

There's been some bumps in the road, but now all our biggest brands are there and -- or nearly there.

道路上有一些顛簸，但現在我們所有最大的品牌都在那裡——或者接近那裡。

And I think that's a big opportunity for us to improve on that app experience.

我認為這對我們來說是一個改善應用程序體驗的大好機會。

In fact, the app growth and app conversion has been showing signs of being better than the rest of the business.

事實上，應用程序的增長和應用程序轉換已經顯示出優於其他業務的跡象。

I attribute some of that to PWA and the experimentation people can do.

我將部分原因歸功於 PWA 和人們可以做的實驗。

We obviously -- once we have it nailed, we've got to push into it, and push into it with marketing and push into it with getting our consumers there more, getting them to sign in more and all of those things.

我們顯然 - 一旦我們確定了它，我們就必須推動它，並通過營銷推動它，並通過讓我們的消費者更多地進入它，讓他們更多地登錄以及所有這些東西來推動它。

So it's across a whole waterfront.

所以它橫跨整個海濱。

I think the biggest sea change is just our push to the company that this has to be our focus, and this has to be where we want to move people.

我認為最大的翻天覆地的變化就是我們向公司推動這必須成為我們的重點，這必須是我們想要感動人們的地方。

We need to get them out of re-fishing for them in the performance channels and into having real relationships with us.

我們需要讓他們不再在表演頻道中為他們重新釣魚，並與我們建立真正的關係。

So it's a holistic kind of approach, but it's taking place on the marketing side, on the product side, on the innovation side and everything else.

所以這是一種整體方法，但它發生在營銷方面、產品方面、創新方面以及其他所有方面。

And so I think we're going to push across all those things.

所以我認為我們將推動所有這些事情。

We'll take our next question from Kevin Kopelman of Cowen and Company.

我們將從 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman 那裡回答下一個問題。

I had a question on SEO.

我有一個關於 SEO 的問題。

Can you give us a better sense of what happened to SEO in the third quarter?

您能否讓我們更好地了解第三季度 SEO 發生的情況？

Because externally looking at the revenue and ad trends, it's really hard to tell how big of an impact that was and what changed there?

因為從外部觀察收入和廣告趨勢，真的很難說出影響有多大以及那裡發生了什麼變化？

And on that, how big ballpark is Expedia's exposure to SEO?

就此而言，Expedia 對 SEO 的曝光度有多大？

Yes.

是的。

Well -- this is Peter.

嗯——這是彼得。

I'll take the end of that, Kevin, which is we don't really disclose how big SEO is, and don't intend to, but it's still a significant part of the business and a good part of the business.

凱文，我將結束這一點，我們並沒有真正透露 SEO 有多大，也不打算透露，但它仍然是業務的重要組成部分，也是業務的重要組成部分。

We've been belaboring this, but clearly as we move to direct relationships and direct traffic with our customers, that is the single best way we can offset any declines that come from SEO.

我們一直在強調這一點，但很明顯，當我們轉向與客戶的直接關係和直接流量時，這是我們可以抵消 SEO 帶來的任何下降的唯一最佳方式。

In terms of what happened in the third quarter, I think it was a compounding of a number of tactical things that Google did and we did not respond well to.

就第三季度發生的事情而言，我認為這是谷歌所做的一些戰術性事情的結合，而我們沒有對此做出很好的回應。

Again, Barry mentioned in the very beginning, we were caught up in a rather large undertaking in terms of reorganization.

同樣，巴里在一開始就提到，我們在重組方面陷入了一項相當大的任務。

And that took people's eyes off the ball, in our view.

在我們看來，這讓人們的目光從球上移開了。

And we could have done better.

我們本可以做得更好。

We should have done better.

我們應該做得更好。

We will do better.

我們會做得更好。

There are also some changes to auction -- some auction dynamics in meta that we did not respond particularly well to.

拍賣也有一些變化——我們對元數據中的一些拍賣動態反應不是特別好。

So there are a number of things that were going on that we were not really on top of.

所以有很多事情正在發生，我們並沒有真正掌控。

SEO is one of them.

搜索引擎優化就是其中之一。

But I think as you think about it, we expect SEO to be a continued headwind.

但我認為，正如您所想的那樣，我們預計 SEO 將成為持續的逆風。

Google, until someone stops them, is not going to stop doing what they've been doing.

在有人阻止他們之前，谷歌不會停止他們一直在做的事情。

We've seen signs as early -- as recently as last week of some changes that may have impact, and hopefully they will think better of it and create a fair marketplace.

我們早在上週就看到了一些可能產生影響的變化的跡象，希望他們能更好地考慮並創造一個公平的市場。

But we can only control what we can.

但我們只能控制我們能控制的。

We're working really hard to offset those headwinds in pure SEO activity as well as do everything we can around the rest of the business to make up for whatever we give up in SEO

我們正在非常努力地抵消純 SEO 活動中的這些不利因素，並儘我們所能圍繞其他業務來彌補我們在 SEO 中放棄的一切

SEO is not going to kill us, and SEO is not the future of our business.

SEO 不會殺死我們，SEO 也不是我們業務的未來。

The trends have been -- these trends began 7 or 8 years ago.

趨勢是——這些趨勢始於 7 或 8 年前。

We should have been more alert, obviously, to the continued consequence of this.

顯然，我們應該更加警惕這種情況的持續後果。

As I said, I don't think we're going to be saved by some bell, by a government bell.

正如我所說，我認為我們不會被某個鐘聲、政府鐘聲拯救。

I absolutely believe there will be regulation.

我絕對相信會有監管。

But we are doing all the things that we intend to do to de-emphasize it.

但我們正在做所有我們打算做的事情來淡化它。

It's still a part.

它仍然是一部分。

It's not a huge part, but it is a part of our business, but it is not the future.

這不是一個很大的部分，但它是我們業務的一部分，但它不是未來。

We'll take our next question from...

我們的下一個問題來自...

No.

不。

You can go ahead.

你可以繼續。

What did you want to add?

你想添加什麼？

Or you would now...

或者你現在...

I just -- I wanted to ask a -- I appreciate that Barry.

我只是——我想問——我很感激巴里。

I just want to ask a follow-up on coronavirus.

我只想問一個關于冠狀病毒的後續行動。

Everyone's asking us about it.

每個人都在問我們這件事。

What are you seeing?

你在看什麼？

Obviously, you can't predict it, but what are you seeing quarter-to-date in the Asia Pacific business?

顯然，您無法預測，但您對亞太地區業務季度至今的情況有何看法？

And I appreciate the EBITDA guidance is very helpful, but just in terms of -- how much is that decline?

而且我很欣賞 EBITDA 指南非常有幫助，但就 - 下降多少而言？

Our very good Eric Hart is going to respond.

我們非常優秀的埃里克·哈特 (Eric Hart) 將會做出回應。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, this is Eric Hart.

嗨，我是埃里克·哈特。

So if you think about how it has affected the business over time, it started in mainland China domestic, then inbound/outbound.

所以如果你想一想它是如何隨著時間的推移影響業務的，它開始於中國大陸國內，然後是入境/出境。

Then it started going through APAC.

然後它開始通過亞太地區。

And then as we believe that it is impacting other areas of the business.

然後我們認為它正在影響業務的其他領域。

We've broken down as best we can, looking at the fundamental underlying drivers for it and of the business.

我們已盡最大努力進行分解，著眼於它和業務的基本驅動因素。

And what we see is in APAC itself, upwards of 50% plus.

我們看到的是亞太地區本身，超過 50%。

And obviously higher that as you get closer to an APAC to China that, that can get very much north of that.

顯然，當你接近亞太地區到中國時，這一數字會更高，那可能會遠遠超過這一點。

But then when you try to control for APAC and you look at North America and EMEA, it does appear that there is weakening of the business as well in those areas of the business.

但是，當您嘗試控制亞太地區並查看北美和 EMEA 時，您會發現這些業務領域的業務確實出現了疲軟。

So overall concentration in APAC, obviously, is an issue for us.

因此，顯然，亞太地區的整體集中度對我們來說是一個問題。

We do see that -- we believe that is having some impact in other areas of the world as well.

我們確實看到了——我們相信這也在世界其他地區產生了一些影響。

And then the $30 million to $40 million is what we're able to estimate based on the different scenarios that are...

然後 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元是我們能夠根據不同的場景估計的……

$30 million to $40 million.

3000萬到4000萬美元。

$30 million to $40 million.

3000萬到4000萬美元。

Yes.

是的。

It -- listen, it truly is an unknown.

它——聽著，它確實是一個未知數。

I know everybody's asking about it.

我知道每個人都在問這個問題。

Look, you've got to believe it's going to be contained.

看，你必須相信它會被收容。

If it's not contained, by the way, the entire world is going to shut down.

順便說一句，如果它不被收容，整個世界都會關閉。

So all you can do is every day you'll read the news and react to it.

所以你所能做的就是每天閱讀新聞並做出反應。

I think anybody, as an investor, unless you think this is going to be the end of life as we know it, who cares?

我認為任何人，作為投資者，除非你認為這將是我們所知道的生命的終結，否則誰在乎呢？

Believe me, I don't mean who cares that a lot of people are going to get sick and whatever.

相信我，我並不是說誰在乎很多人會生病什麼的。

But really this is an exogenous event, will end.

但真的這是一個外生事件，終將結束。

And frankly no one should count it.

坦率地說，沒有人應該算它。

All we're trying to do is separate what we absolutely believe is the effect of the virus from our ongoing business, so we can prepare ourselves and make that ongoing business as strong as possible when this thing is over.

我們要做的就是將我們絕對認為是病毒的影響與我們正在進行的業務分開，這樣我們就可以做好準備，並在這件事結束後使正在進行的業務盡可能強大。

We'll take our next question from Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer.

我們將從奧本海默的傑德凱利那裡接受下一個問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Back to Vrbo it's primarily domestic and it seems like you're rationalizing your marketing outside the U.S. So does that have the most opportunity this year to inflect back to growth?

回到 Vrbo，它主要是國內的，而且你似乎正在合理化你在美國以外的營銷。那麼今年是否有最多的機會恢復增長？

And then as another question, as you think of driving more differentiation, more loyalty, do you ever think about getting more closer to the inventory and taking more inventory risk?

然後作為另一個問題，當您考慮推動更多差異化、更高忠誠度時，您是否考慮過更接近庫存並承擔更多庫存風險？

So I think I'll start at the top there.

所以我想我將從那裡的頂部開始。

I think Vrbo, yes, we're rationalizing some international spend.

我認為 Vrbo，是的，我們正在合理化一些國際支出。

But that by no means, all international spend and ambition.

但這絕不是所有的國際支出和野心。

And as I mentioned, now that Vrbo inventory is available on brand Expedia and actually went live partially in Hotels.com for the first time a few days ago, we have many ways to get that inventory into other markets that may be way more efficient than trying to build a brand in a place where we have no brand recognition.

正如我所提到的，既然 Vrbo 庫存在品牌 Expedia 上可用，並且實際上幾天前第一次在 Hotels.com 上部分上線，我們有很多方法可以將這些庫存投放到其他市場，這可能比試圖在我們沒有品牌知名度的地方建立品牌。

So there's lots of ways to look at that.

所以有很多方法可以看待這一點。

I don't think we believe Vrbo is on a path to any greater inflection than any other of our businesses.

我不認為我們相信 Vrbo 正在走向比我們任何其他業務更大的變化。

All the businesses are working hard, and there's a lot of various drivers.

所有的企業都在努力工作，並且有很多各種各樣的驅動程序。

So I wouldn't think of it that way, -- but we do believe Vrbo will grow EBITDA and get back to growing top line.

所以我不會那樣想，但我們確實相信 Vrbo 會增加 EBITDA 並回到增長的頂線。

Again, as we lean into our stronger opportunities in the beginning of this year.

同樣，當我們在今年年初抓住更強大的機會時。

And no, inventory risks?

不，庫存風險？

No.

不。

Not right now.

不是現在。

We got plenty of other things to do before we get to figuring out whether we're going to take inventory risk.

在弄清楚我們是否要承擔庫存風險之前，我們還有很多其他事情要做。

And sir, we have no further questions in queue.

先生，我們沒有其他問題要排隊了。

Well, good timing.

好吧，好時機。

Well, thank you all.

嗯，謝謝大家。

Actually, I've said before, I'm really -- I'm enjoying this process now.

實際上，我之前說過，我真的——我現在很享受這個過程。

And I think so too is Mr. Kern, and I hope many of our executives are enjoying that, too.

我認為克恩先生也是如此，我希望我們的許多高管也喜歡這一點。

But nevertheless, we'll plow through and on.

但是，儘管如此，我們將繼續努力。

In any event, thank you for being with us, and we'll talk to you in a few months and update you with our progress.

無論如何，感謝您與我們在一起，我們將在幾個月後與您交談並向您更新我們的進展。

Good day.

再會。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。