Expand Energy Corp (EXE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Expand Energy 2024 fourth quarter and full year teleconference.

您好，歡迎參加 Expand Energy 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres, Vice President of Investor Relations and Special Projects.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和特別項目副總裁克里斯艾爾斯 (Chris Ayres)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Lisa.

謝謝你，麗莎。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand's 2024 fourth quarter and full year financial and operating results.

大家早安，感謝您今天的電話會議，討論 Expand 2024 年第四季度和全年財務和營運業績。

Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation we posted to our website yesterday.

希望您有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿和我們昨天發佈在我們網站上的最新投資者介紹。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements.

在今天早上的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述包括無法透過現有資訊證實的陳述，包括有關我們的信念、目標、期望、預測、預期和未來表現的陳述以及這些陳述所基於的假設。

Please also note, there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to materially differ from our forward-looking statements, including factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and other SEC filings.

另請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異，包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。

Please also recognize that as except required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

另外請注意，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過度依賴此類陳述。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP measures which will help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers.

我們也可以參考一些非公認會計準則指標，這將有助於跨時期和同儕進行比較。

For any non-GAAP measure, there's a reconciliation on our website.

對於任何非公認會計準則衡量指標，我們的網站上都有對帳表。

With me on the call today are Nick Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh, Josh Viets and Dan Turco, our new EVP of Marketing and Commercial.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Nick Dell'Osso、Mohit Singh、Josh Viets 和我們的新行銷和商務執行副總裁 Dan Turco。

Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A.

尼克將簡要介紹我們的結果，然後我們將開啟電話會議進行問答。

So with that, thank you again, and I will now turn the teleconference over to Nick.

所以，再次感謝您，現在我將電話會議交給尼克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。

The world's need for energy continues to grow.

世界對能源的需求持續成長。

With our attractive market-connected portfolio, resilient financial foundation and peer-leading returns, Expand Energy was created specifically to better respond to this growing demand and yield stronger returns for shareholders in times of volatility.

Expand Energy 擁有具有吸引力的市場關聯投資組合、穩健的財務基礎和同行領先的回報，其成立旨在更好地滿足日益增長的需求，並在動盪時期為股東帶來更豐厚的回報。

Our productive capacity strategy uniquely positions us to not simply react, but to capitalize on the dynamic market we see today.

我們的生產能力策略使我們擁有獨特的優勢，不僅可以做出反應，還可以利用當今的動態市場。

As our 2025 capital and operating plan demonstrates, this is exactly what we are doing.

正如我們的 2025 年資本和營運計劃所示，這正是我們正在做的事情。

Benefiting from a powerful combination of premium rock returns and runway across our portfolio, access to advantaged markets and some of the most capital efficient operations in the industry, we've enhanced our outlook for 2025.

由於我們投資組合中優厚的回報和良好的業績表現、進入優勢市場的機會以及業內一些資本效率最高的運營，我們增強了對 2025 年的展望。

We continue to benefit from the tailwind of our 2024 productive capacity strategy and now expect to produce approximately 7.1 Bcf per day for a capital investment of approximately $2.7 billion.

我們持續受惠於 2024 年生產能力策略的順風，目前預計日產量約 71 億立方英尺，資本投資約 27 億美元。

As market fundamentals continue to improve the outlook for natural gas, we are electing to invest an incremental $300 million to build approximately 300 million cubic feet per day of additional productive capacity.

隨著市場基本面繼續改善天然氣前景，我們選擇投資增量 3 億美元，以建立每天約 3 億立方英尺的額外生產能力。

This will allow us to efficiently deliver 7.5 Bcf per day in 2026, should market conditions warrant.

如果市場條件允許，這將使我們能夠在 2026 年有效地輸送 75 億立方英尺/天的天然氣。

We believe this level of production optimizes free cash flow at mid-cycle prices.

我們相信，這種生產水準可以優化中期價格的自由現金流。

Since we won't pull the trigger on this incremental capacity until midyear, we have time to watch the market, and we'll have the flexibility to adjust as necessary.

由於我們要到年中才會開始增加產能，因此我們有時間觀察市場，並可根據需要靈活地進行調整。

Successful integration has further strengthened our outlook.

成功的整合進一步增強了我們的前景。

We continue to capture significant capital and operating efficiencies, rapidly accelerating the achievement of our annual synergies.

我們繼續獲得顯著的資本和營運效率，迅速加速實現我們的年度協同效應。

We now expect to achieve approximately $400 million of our annual synergy target in 2025 and to capture the entire $500 million target by year-end 2026.

我們目前預計在 2025 年實現約 4 億美元的年度協同目標，並在 2026 年底實現全部 5 億美元的目標。

I am especially encouraged to see the 20%-plus improvement we are delivering in our Haynesville drilling performance.

我尤其高興地看到我們的海恩斯維爾鑽井性能提高了20%以上。

In the fourth quarter alone, we cut nearly 9 days and $1.5 million in cost per well from Southwestern's legacy drilling performance.

光是在第四季度，我們就比西南石油公司傳統的鑽井業績縮短了近 9 天，每口井的成本降低了 150 萬美元。

The definition of synergy success is clear, achieving capital and operating efficiencies that result in spending less while producing more, which is exactly what we're doing.

協同成功的定義很明確，即實現資本和營運效率，從而減少開支同時增加產量，而這正是我們正在做的事情。

Our resilient financial foundation and peer-leading returns program are two areas which also further differentiate our company.

我們穩健的財務基礎和同行領先的回報計劃是進一步使我們的公司與眾不同的兩個方面。

At today's prices, we expect to end 2025 with less than $4.5 billion in net debt.

以今天的價格計算，我們預計到 2025 年底淨債務將少於 45 億美元。

Our debut $750 million investment-grade issuance set a record spread for an energy rising star at 132 basis points over 10-year treasuries and cleared all near-term maturities through 2029.

我們首次發行 7.5 億美元投資等級債券，創下能源新星債券利差紀錄，比 10 年期公債利差高出 132 個基點，並清算了截至 2029 年的所有近期到期債券。

Our enhanced capital return framework is designed to efficiently return cash to shareholders and reduce net debt.

我們增強的資本回報框架旨在有效地向股東返還現金並減少淨債務。

After paying our $2.30 per share dividend, we expect to allocate $500 million to debt reduction in 2025.

在支付每股 2.30 美元的股息後，我們預計將在 2025 年撥款 5 億美元用於減債。

Given our strong free cash flow outlook, we expect to have additional cash available to allocate to a combination of variable dividends, share repurchases and the balance sheet.

鑑於我們強勁的自由現金流前景，我們預計將有額外的現金可用於分配給浮動股息、股票回購和資產負債表的組合。

Turning to our marketing program.

談到我們的行銷計劃。

We see great opportunity to capitalize on our position as the nation's largest natural gas producer.

我們看到了利用我們作為國內最大天然氣生產商的地位獲得巨大機會。

There is greater than 11 Bcf per day of LNG capacity under construction, and the domestic power market continues to grow in support of data centers and rising consumer demand.

正在興建的液化天然氣產能超過每天110億立方英尺，國內電力市場為支援資料中心和不斷增長的消費者需求而持續成長。

We have the assets, balance sheet and capital efficient operations to help meet this new demand.

我們擁有資產、資產負債表和資本高效的營運來幫助滿足這項新需求。

I'm pleased to welcome Dan Turco to our team to lead this effort.

我很高興歡迎 Dan Turco 加入我們的團隊領導這項工作。

Dan has extensive experience creating value for marketing and trading programs and will help us realize the benefit of our advantaged position.

Dan 在為行銷和交易專案創造價值方面擁有豐富的經驗，他將幫助我們實現優勢地位帶來的好處。

The marketing program has already seen the value of our combined portfolio.

行銷計劃已經看到了我們合併後的投資組合的價值。

Our team worked extremely hard from the date of close to fully integrate our marketing and transportation portfolio by January 1 of this year, allowing us to optimize the flow of volumes across pipes, increasing value for our gas and reducing costs.

我們的團隊從協議簽署之日起就極其努力地工作，力爭在今年 1 月 1 日之前全面整合我們的行銷和運輸組合，從而優化管道流量，提高天然氣價值並降低成本。

Looking forward to 2026, once the NG3 pipe is online, approximately 75% of our marketed volumes are expected to reach strategic markets, including 2.5 Bcf per day directly to the growing LNG corridor.

展望 2026 年，一旦 NG3 管道投入使用，預計我們約 75% 的市場銷售量將進入戰略市場，其中每天有 25 億立方英尺直接輸送到不斷增長的 LNG 走廊。

Expand's powerful combination of an attractive connected portfolio, a peer-leading returns program and resilient financial foundation is distinct among natural gas producers.

Expand 擁有富有吸引力的關聯投資組合、同行領先的回報計劃和穩健的財務基礎，其強大的組合在天然氣生產商中獨樹一幟。

Today's market provides a unique opportunity for our company, and we look forward to expanding opportunity for our shareholders in the year ahead.

今天的市場為我們公司提供了一個獨特的機會，我們期待在新的一年為我們的股東提供更多的機會。

Operator, we'll now take questions.

接線員，我們現在來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Portillo, TPH.

（操作員指示）Matt Portillo，TPH。

Just a quick question. slide 9, very helpful laying out your thoughts on maximizing free cash flow at mid-cycle pricing.

這只是一個簡單的問題。第 9 張投影片非常有幫助，闡述了您關於在中期定價時最大化自由現金流的想法。

Just curious, maybe if you could speak to that slide?

只是好奇，您能針對那張幻燈片講一講嗎？

And specifically, if we're in kind of a $3.50 to $4 world, should we be thinking about kind of your productive capacity once you get to the 7.5 Bcf a day in 2026 to hold around 7.5 Bs?

具體來說，如果我們處在 3.50 美元到 4 美元的世界，我們是否應該考慮，一旦 2026 年達到每天 75 億立方英尺的產量，您的生產能力將如何維持在 75 億立方英尺左右？

Or do you think you could continue to see growth from that point forward?

或者您認為從那時起您還可以繼續看到成長？

Yes, I'm really glad you asked about this slide to start off with, Matt.

是的，我很高興你首先問到這張幻燈片，馬特。

This is an important way for us to communicate how we think about our capital allocation for this year and over time.

這是我們傳達對今年及未來資本配置想法的重要方式。

We all talk a lot about the right way to set up our business.

我們都討論過很多有關如何正確開展業務的話題。

And we thought this slide did a good job of laying out our thought process.

我們認為這張投影片很好地闡述了我們的思考過程。

We believe that it starts with a view of the macro.

我們認為，這始於宏觀視角。

And so we'll continue to have a View of the fundamentals and let that underpin how we think about allocating our capital.

因此，我們將繼續關注基本面，並以此為基礎思考如何分配我們的資本。

And for us, that means that we're going to always have a rolling forward two to three year assessment of where the market is and what that means for mid-cycle prices.

對我們來說，這意味著我們將始終進行未來兩到三年的滾動評估，以了解市場的現狀以及這對中期價格意味著什麼。

And you're right to point out that right now, we're pegging that at $3.50 to $4 per Mcf, Henry Hub.

您指出得對，目前我們將其價格定為每千立方英尺 3.50 至 4 美元，亨利港。

And so the table below simply lays out a look at the heat map is designed around cash flow generation, free cash flow and looking at various levels of production relative to various levels of price, where is your business optimized?

因此，下表簡單地列出了熱圖，它是圍繞現金流產生、自由現金流設計的，並查看了相對於不同價格水平的不同生產水平，您的業務在哪些方面進行了優化？

It's pretty easy for any of us to think about in a stronger market, growing volumes.

對我們任何人來說，在更強勁的市場中，都很容易想到銷售的成長。

That always feels good.

那感覺總是很好的。

But there's certainly an optimal level of production for a business given the underlying macro.

但考慮到基本的宏觀經濟因素，企業肯定存在一個最佳生產水準。

And I think this helps to highlight how we view that there can be levels of production that are too high for a given price and there can be levels of production that are too low.

我認為這有助於強調我們的觀點：對於給定的價格，有些產量水平可能過高，有些產量水平也可能過低。

And so at $3.50 to $4, you can see that we sit in a pretty good place at 7.5 Bcf a day.

因此，在 3.50 美元到 4 美元的價格範圍內，你可以看到，我們每天的產量為 75 億立方英尺，處於相當不錯的水平。

What we also like about this slide is that we're giving you some parameters around which we would have to underwrite a longer-term view of the macro in order to raise that level of targeted production.

我們也喜歡這張投影片的一點是，我們為您提供了一些參數，我們必須圍繞這些參數來承保宏觀的長期視角，以提高目標生產水準。

And I say targeted and we say mid-cycle and all of those things because there's plenty of volatility that could show up in the short term that would continue to cause us to do things like we did in 2024, curtail volumes, curtail activity.

我之所以說有針對性並且處於中期週期，是因為短期內可能出現大量波動，這些波動將繼續導致我們採取 2024 年那樣的舉措，減少交易量，減少活動。

There might be times where you want to accelerate capacity that's otherwise on the sideline, given a short-term event.

考慮到短期事件，有時您可能希望加速原本處於邊緣狀態的容量。

But when we think about mid-cycle activity, we think about this level of production relative to this price that we're underwriting.

但是當我們考慮中期活動時，我們會考慮相對於我們所承保的價格的生產水準。

So right now, $3.50 to $4, 7.5 Bcf a day of production.

所以現在，每天的產量為 3.50 到 4 美元，75 億立方英尺。

I think it's pretty interesting to note that from an overall market standpoint, we are underwriting a level of price that is below where the '25 and '26 strip is today.

我認為值得注意的是，從整體市場角度來看，我們承保的價格水準低於目前 25 年和 26 年的價格水準。

We do that with the recognition that, one, we don't mind being just a bit on the conservative side and underwriting price.

我們這樣做是基於這樣的認知：第一，我們不介意稍微保守一點並承保價格。

Two, we do think a lot about how this will evolve over time.

二，我們確實對這現象隨著時間的推移會如何發展進行了許多思考。

And we know that when prices as they are today are above the marginal breakevens of the industry.

我們知道，當今天的價格高於產業的邊際損益平衡點時。

Supply will ultimately show up and compete.

供應最終會出現並進行競爭。

And that competing supply, as we go out into '27, '28, '29 is increasingly going to be not just domestic supply, but international supply.

隨著我們進入27、28、29年，競爭供應將不再只是國內供應，而是國際供應。

We've talked for a while about how in the second half of this decade, there will be more LNG capacity that comes online around the world that will compete directly with U.S. Gulf Coast capacity.

我們已經討論過，在未來五年，世界各地將有更多的液化天然氣產能上線，與美國墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣產能直接競爭。

And so we think it's appropriate to take this multiyear view of the market.

因此我們認為對市場採取這種多年的視角是適當的。

And again, we see $3.50 to $4 is a pretty reasonable price to underwrite.

我們再次認為 3.50 到 4 美元是一個相當合理的承保價格。

So all of that informs how we think about our business today, it thinks about -- what helps us to think about what the optimal level of production and CapEx is that then drives the optimal level of cash flow.

因此，所有這些都告訴我們如何看待今天的業務，它思考——什麼有助於我們思考最佳生產和資本支出水平，從而推動最佳現金流水平。

I would also just point out that we're giving you a lot of information on this slide, including the right-hand column of the matrix, which tells you the amount of maintenance capital that would be required for each of these levels of production.

我還要指出的是，我們在這張投影片上給了你很多信息，包括矩陣的右側一欄，它告訴你每個生產水準所需的維護資本金額。

Obviously, there's a lot of assumptions embedded into a chart like this.

顯然，這樣的圖表中隱藏著許多假設。

And those assumptions would have to be revisited over time.

而這些假設必須隨著時間的推移而重新審視。

We're using our current assumptions of well cost.

我們正在使用目前的井成本假設。

We're using our current assumptions of well productivity.

我們正在使用目前對油井生產力的假設。

Our team is pretty focused on improving our capital efficiency around both halves of that equation every day.

我們的團隊每天都非常專注於提高該等式的兩個部分的資本效率。

And so we'll continue to refresh our thoughts around this.

因此，我們將繼續更新對此的想法。

But we think this is a pretty good framework.

但我們認為這是一個非常好的框架。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then maybe just a follow-up.

然後可能只是一個後續行動。

You mentioned LNG.

您提到了液化天然氣。

I was just curious if you can maybe touch on your updated thoughts on the marketing strategy?

我只是好奇，您是否可以談談您對行銷策略的最新想法？

I know it's a diversification for you all.

我知道這對你們所有人來說都是一種多樣化。

And there's obviously some puts and takes and views on global incremental supply versus demand over the next few years.

顯然，人們對未來幾年全球增量供應與需求存在一些看法和觀點。

So just curious, how you guys are thinking about the LNG market and your strategy moving forward?

所以很好奇，你們如何看待液化天然氣市場以及未來的策略？

Yes.

是的。

Another great question.

又一個好問題。

So again, we're excited about what's happening with the incremental LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast and how we're positioned relative to that.

因此，我們再次對墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣出口能力的增加以及我們的定位感到興奮。

We think we are uniquely positioned to that, one, just given the scale of production that we have proximate to those assets in the Haynesville, but then also, we have a really nice transportation portfolio that allows us to move 2.5 Bcf a day by the end of this year to Gillis.

我們認為，我們在這方面具有獨特的優勢，首先，考慮到我們在海恩斯維爾資產附近的生產規模，其次，我們擁有非常好的運輸組合，可以讓我們在今年年底前每天向吉利斯運輸 25 億立方英尺天然氣。

We moved another two Bcf a day over towards Perryville, which then can flow south towards the Eastern facilities like

我們每天向佩里維爾輸送另外 20 億立方英尺的天然氣，然後這些天然氣可以向南流向東部設施，例如

[Plaquemines].

[普拉克明]。

And we have a lot of connectivity to these projects.

我們與這些項目有著許多的連結。

We have a great relationship with a lot of the liquefiers themselves as well as the offtakers, and we have regular communication with all of them about what their needs are and how we should think about being prepared to supply gas.

我們與許多液化石油氣生產商以及承購商都保持著良好的關係，我們定期與他們溝通，了解他們的需求以及我們應該如何考慮做好供應天然氣的準備。

So we really like our position.

所以我們真的很喜歡我們的立場。

As you know, we have announced on supply agreement going through the [Delphin] facility.

如您所知，我們已經宣布了透過[Delphin]工廠達成的供應協議。

And we think there's more that we can do around LNG in the future.

我們認為未來我們可以在液化天然氣領域做更多的事情。

But I would say we're really focused on ensuring that as we take on any incremental LNG projects, we're thinking hard about how we can do a couple of things.

但我想說，我們真正關注的是確保在承擔任何增量液化天然氣項目時，我們都在認真思考如何做幾件事。

One, ensure that it provides a diversified revenue source for us, connecting us to markets that we wouldn't otherwise be connected to that have diverse and different characteristics than Henry Hub.

一是確保它為我們提供多樣化的收入來源，將我們與那些與亨利樞紐相比具有多樣化和不同特徵的市場聯繫起來。

We think that's important.

我們認為這很重要。

And then exposing us to revenue opportunities that, again, help to generate higher levels of cash flow through cycles for our business.

然後向我們展示收入機會，這些機會再次幫助我們在業務週期中產生更高水準的現金流。

I think as we think about our business today, we are in the Haynesville, which is a really important geographic diversity for us, being proximate to markets and being able to grow.

我認為，當我們思考今天的業務時，我們位於海恩斯維爾，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的地理多樣性，靠近市場並且能夠發展。

And we need to show higher revenue to prove out the value of that geographic diversification.

我們需要展示更高的收入來證明地理多樣化的價值。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Nick, I've got 2, if I may.

尼克，如果可以的話，我有 2 個。

I guess the synergy number, we're all kind of watching that evolve a little quicker than you had originally planned.

我想，我們都在觀察綜效的發展，它比原先計畫的要快一些。

But if I go back to when you announced the deal back in January of last year, you put a kind of a two-year time line on building a marketing business, and you obviously made a very high profile higher here recently.

但如果我回想一下去年 1 月你們宣布這筆交易的時候，你們為建立行銷業務設定了一個兩年的時間表，而且你們最近顯然在這裡高調亮相。

So I just wondered if you could give us a quick refresh on what you think the timing looks like now to achieve what you think is possible and maybe quantify what that number looks like, again, 2.5 Bcf a year, more or less.

所以我只是想知道您是否可以快速地向我們介紹一下，您認為現在實現可能目標的時機是什麼時候，也許可以量化這個數字，還是每年 25 億立方英尺左右。

What's the -- is that $0.10 number?

那——0.10 美元是多少？

Is that $0.20 number?

這個數字是 0.20 美元嗎？

What's the ambition?

有什麼野心？

Because obviously, I don't think that's in a lot of people's numbers at this point.

因為顯然，我認為目前很多人並不這麼認為。

That's my first one.

這是我的第一個。

I've got a quick follow-up, please.

我需要快速跟進。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

We're really excited about what is in front of us from a marketing perspective.

從行銷角度來看，我們對眼前的事物感到非常興奮。

And you're right, we have made a really important hire for our team.

你說得對，我們為團隊聘請了一位非常重要的員工。

And we're looking forward to building out our business in a way that takes better advantage of the scale of production that we have as well as the transportation portfolio we have today.

我們期待以更好的利用我們現有的生產規模和運輸組合的方式拓展我們的業務。

Traditionally, both Chesapeake and Southwestern marketed gas in a relatively close to wellhead fashion.

傳統上，切薩皮克和西南能源都以相對接近井口的方式銷售天然氣。

We do have a lot of transportation, but we are, for the most part, selling gas to the nearest purchaser at the terminus of that transportation, whether that's off the gathering system or if it's further downstream.

我們確實有很多運輸方式，但大多數情況下，我們都是在運輸終點站將天然氣賣給最近的購買者，無論是在收集系統之外，還是在下游。

And we haven't engaged in a lot of optimization, which generally, larger companies do.

我們並沒有進行大量的最佳化，一般來說，大公司都會這樣做。

We think there's quite a bit of value in the domestic optimization of how we sell our gas.

我們認為，優化國內天然氣銷售方式具有相當的價值。

And we're looking forward to building out the processes and the capabilities to do that.

我們期待建立實現這一目標的流程和能力。

We know how to do it.

我們知道如何做。

We have the talent to do it.

我們有能力做到這件事。

We need to build systems processes and certainly need to build a risk framework to ensure that we do it properly.

我們需要建立系統流程，當然也需要建立風險框架來確保我們正確地做到這一點。

But in doing that, we think we can add pretty meaningful value to our business and increase our netbacks to our equity production, certainly by a few pennies on that domestic optimization alone.

但透過這樣做，我們認為我們可以為我們的業務增加相當有意義的價值，並增加我們的股權生產的淨回報，單單在國內優化方面就可以增加幾分錢。

And then the longer-term value opportunity is, of course, around new commercial relationships that could be more interesting.

當然，長期價值機會在於可能更有趣的新商業關係。

And those could be in the form of power deals, industrial deals, LNG deals, long-term buyers of gas that seek certainty of supply and potentially seek some certainty of cost.

這些交易可以是電力交易、工業交易、液化天然氣交易、尋求供應確定性並可能尋求一定成本確定性的天然氣長期買家。

And we think there's quite a bit of opportunity in a market that looks like it will increasingly have challenges of getting the right amount of gas to the right markets at the right time.

我們認為，在一個看起來將面臨越來越大的挑戰——在正確的時間向正確的市場提供適量的天然氣——的市場中，存在著相當多的機會。

And we think we're well positioned to help solve those challenges.

我們認為我們有能力幫助解決這些挑戰。

So just to be clear, is that a $400 million annual business?

所以要明確一點的是，這是一項每年 4 億美元的業務嗎？

Or is that stretching the -- you said the marketing model.

或者這是在延伸——您說的是行銷模式。

I'm thinking $0.15.

我認為是 0.15 美元。

I think we're going to hold off on giving you an exact number today, Doug.

道格，我想我們今天不會給你一個確切的數字。

We're going to continue to build out this business plan.

我們將繼續實施這項商業計劃。

We're going to hold off on giving the exact number today, but we think it's certainly meaningful.

我們今天不會給出具體的數字，但我們認為這個數字肯定很有意義。

And we're pretty excited about what's in front of us.

我們對眼前的事感到非常興奮。

Got it.

知道了。

So my follow-up is you've kind of certainly slipped into the presentation, 20 years plus of inventory.

因此我的後續問題是，您肯定已經進入了演示階段，有超過 20 年的庫存。

And I think you used to have the Southwestern, the Chesapeake standalone saying, we've got a 15-year backlog.

我認為西南能源、切薩皮克能源等獨立公司曾經說過，我們有 15 年的訂單積壓。

I think -- when you think about -- we're telling you, you can hold this at $3 billion of capital, 7.5 Bcf a day.

我認為——當你考慮——我們告訴你，你可以以 30 億美元的資本、每天 75 億立方英尺的量來維持這一水平。

It seems you're making life pretty simple for everybody to kind of lay out what the value proposition is.

看起來你讓每個人的生活都變得非常簡單，可以清楚地闡明價值主張是什麼。

My question is, what commingling Bossier, Haynesville Upper, Lower Marcellus, what's extending the inventory?

我的問題是，博西爾、海恩斯維爾上游和馬塞勒斯下游的混合體會擴大庫存嗎？

What is the relative economics look like of the portfolio today versus what you were seeing before?

與您之前看到的相比，現在投資組合的經濟狀況如何？

And -- because I was obviously an impression that Bossier and Haynesville had very different returns, but now they're both part of the story.

而且——因為我顯然覺得博西爾和海恩斯維爾的回報截然不同，但現在他們都是故事的一部分。

So if you could help us understand that a little bit, if that 20 years is an apples-for-apples comparison, that would be great.

因此，如果您能幫助我們稍微理解這一點，如果這 20 年是一個同類比較，那就太好了。

Yes.

是的。

Look, it's essentially the productive life of -- around the assets that we generate today.

你看，這本質上是我們今天所創造的資產的生產壽命。

So yes, Bossier is in there, Upper Marcellus is in there.

所以是的，Bossier 在那裡，Upper Marcellus 也在那裡。

And we continue to derisk all aspects of those plays that have less producing wells than maybe the more traditional Haynesville zone or the Lower Marcellus zone.

我們將繼續降低這些油田各方面的風險，這些油田的生產井數量可能比更傳統的海恩斯維爾區或下馬塞勒斯區要少。

Our team has done some really, really good work over the last couple of years to add value to all of those locations.

在過去幾年裡，我們的團隊做了一些非常出色的工作，為所有這些地點增加了價值。

And every time we add value to those locations, more of those locations can turn green, so to speak, in our inventory counts and in our skyline charts.

每當我們為這些地點增加價值時，在我們的庫存數量和天際線圖表中，更多的地點就會變成綠色。

One of the things that's happening here, though, is that as we brought these two companies together, we think that we are ultimately going to be most efficient and most effective and leaning on the capital efficiency of our business.

然而，現在發生的事情之一是，當我們將這兩家公司合併時，我們認為我們最終將變得最有效率、最有效，並依靠我們業務的資本效率。

We'll run less rigs than each company was running on a stand-alone basis.

我們運行的鑽機數量將比每家公司單獨運行的數量要少。

And so the life extends, the number of years of development extends partially just because of that.

因此，壽命會延長，發展年資也會延長，部分原因就在於此。

But we're definitely very focused on continuing to turn more and more sticks within our acreage green, which allows us to add more adjacent acreage around our plays.

但我們絕對非常專注於繼續在我們的綠地面積內種植越來越多的樹木，這使我們能夠在我們的球場周圍增加更多的相鄰綠地面積。

Scott Hanold, RBC.

斯科特·漢諾德（RBC）。

Let's stick on that same topic, if we could.

如果可以的話，我們就繼續討論同一個話題吧。

And specifically with the Upper Marcellus and Bossier, can you talk about how -- what percentage of that is in the activity over the next couple of years?

具體來說，對於上馬塞勒斯和博西爾，您能否談談其中有多少比例會在未來幾年內發揮作用？

And just give us a sense of the relative economics of those zones comparatively.

請讓我們比較一下這些區域的相對經濟狀況。

And are you seeing the ability to kind of what things are you seeing that can maybe improve those economics and you get closer to sort of the Haynesville Lower Marcellus?

您是否看到了哪些東西也許能夠改善經濟並更接近海恩斯維爾下馬塞勒斯？

Scott, this is Josh.

斯科特，這是喬希。

First on the split, we do provide a slide in the deck on slide 35 that provides the breakdown for the number of TILs.

首先關於分割，我們在第 35 張投影片中提供了 TIL 數量的細項分類。

But you'll notice in the Haynesville, we are going to be slightly heavier weighted towards the Haynesville wells.

但您會注意到，在海恩斯維爾，我們將更加重視海恩斯維爾油井。

So it's probably closer to 60% to 65%.

因此可能更接近 60% 到 65%。

And in the Northeast with the Upper and Lower, it's probably closer to maybe 45% Lower and the rest will be Upper.

而在東北地區，有上游和下游，可能更接近 45% 為下游，其餘為上游。

And so on the comparative economics, one of the things I would just say, and I'll maybe start with the Haynesville specifically, both reservoirs offer tremendous potential from a return standpoint.

因此，就比較經濟學而言，我想說的一件事，我可能首先從海恩斯維爾水庫開始，從回報的角度來看，這兩個水庫都提供了巨大的潛力。

And we like the productivity that we see in each the Bossier tends to be just a little bit more expensive on the completion side, but also recognize it's shallower.

我們喜歡 Bossier 所展現的生產力，儘管其完井成本略高一些，但我們也認識到其深度較淺。

So drilling costs are a little bit less.

因此鑽井成本會稍微低一些。

We find productivity to be fantastic across both, I would say, somewhat equitable.

我們發現，兩者的生產力都非常高，我想說，在某種程度上是公平的。

The Upper and the Lower, we've talked about for some time, the fact that we do see lower productivity on a per foot basis in the Upper.

我們已經討論了一段時間的上游和下游問題，事實上我們確實看到上游每英尺的生產率較低。

But the ways we find to enhance the economics of that, which is really the ultimate goal, is by extending lateral lengths.

但我們發現，提高其經濟性的方法，也就是真正的最終目標，是透過延長橫向長度。

And because it's less developed, we have opportunities to drill longer laterals, which we've been doing year-over-year.

而且由於開發程度較低，我們有機會鑽更長的水平井，我們每年都在這樣做。

We've also really been investing in analytics and looking opportunities to enhance the way at which we complete these wells.

我們也一直在投資分析並尋找機會改善這些油井的完井方式。

And so the combination, the longer laterals, the enhanced completion designs, we've talked about hybrid wells in the past as another mechanism at which we could really boost up the profitability of the upper wells where we combine, let's say, a 10,000-foot section of upper with 5,000 feet of lower reservoir.

因此，我們過去曾討論過組合、更長的水平井、增強的完井設計等混合井，作為另一種機制，我們可以真正提高上部井的盈利能力，比如說，將 10,000 英尺的上部油藏與 5,000 英尺的下部油藏結合起來。

That all helps to normalize our returns across the Marcellus play.

這一切都有助於使我們在 Marcellus 遊戲中的回報正常化。

Appreciate the context.

欣賞上下文。

And as my follow-up, just talking about the productive capacity increase that you have planned into 2026.

我的後續問題是關於您計劃在 2026 年實現的生產能力提升。

And -- to me, it was interesting on -- I guess you're calling up productive capacity versus "just regular growth."

對我來說，這很有趣——我猜你所說的生產能力與「正常成長」不同。

So that does -- correct me if I'm wrong, tell -- indicates to us that there's some optionality if the market is not there.

所以這確實 — — 如果我錯了請糾正我，告訴 — — 向我們表明，如果市場不存在，就會存在一些可選性。

But can you give us some sense of, as you get into the back half of '25 -- obviously, it's a very sensitive time coming into the winter every year with the gas market.

但是，您能否為我們介紹一下，隨著 2025 年下半年的到來——顯然，每年冬季對於天然氣市場來說都是一個非常敏感的時期。

If you start building this productive capacity in these wells to bring on -- and let's say, the winter doesn't pan out.

如果你開始在這些油井中建立這種生產能力，那麼──假設冬天沒有成功。

What happens in 2026 now that you've already spent those $300 million of extra capital?

既然你已經花掉了這 3 億美元的額外資本，那麼 2026 年會發生什麼事？

What do you do?

你做什麼工作？

Sorry, my mute didn't come off.

抱歉，我的靜音功能沒開啟。

I'm going to start over.

我要重新開始。

Yes, we're really pleased with the flexibility we exhibited in our business in 2024, and we think it would set up really similarly.

是的，我們對 2024 年業務所展現的靈活性感到非常滿意，而且我們認為它的設置會非常相似。

So we're going to build this productive capacity coming into the end of this year, it will be ready to be turned in line in 2026.

因此，我們將在今年年底建成這項生產能力，並準備在 2026 年投入生產。

And if the market is not there, then it would we would likely have a response to that that would be some combination of either holding back the turn-in lines or curtailing volumes to alleviate pressure on the market.

如果市場沒有這種需求，那麼我們可能會採取一些應對措施，要麼減少上車線路，要麼減少銷量，以減輕市場壓力。

But I would back up even further than that.

但我還會進一步支持這一點。

And let's say that we see that as we come through this year, the macro conditions change in some unforeseen way and the market doesn't look as strong in '26 or '27, then we'll change our capital allocation as well.

假設我們發現，今年宏觀條件發生了一些不可預見的變化，市場在 26 年或 27 年看起來不那麼強勁，那麼我們也會改變我們的資本配置。

We've proven, I think, several times over, the flexibility we have there and the willingness to try and be responsive and in front of market conditions to be efficient with our capital relative to where we are in the cycle.

我認為，我們已經多次證明了我們的靈活性，以及​​我們願意嘗試對市場狀況做出回應，並根據我們所處的周期階段高效利用資本。

So we maintain a ton of flexibility in our business.

因此我們的業務保持了極大的靈活性。

And this is what we think is the right planning step for today, and we're very prepared for both increasing capital or decreasing capital as conditions warrant.

我們認為這是今天的正確規劃步驟，並且我們已經做好根據情況增加資本或減少資本的準備。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的德文·麥克德莫特。

So I wanted to dive in first on the 2025 activity in a little bit more detail, I definitely agree with the constructive outlook for gas prices this year.

因此，我想先更詳細地探討一下 2025 年的活動，我絕對同意今年汽油價格的建設性前景。

Looking back about a month ago, we were flirting with $2 on Henry Hub.

回想大約一個月前，我們在亨利中心的價格約為 2 美元。

So I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the decision process to pull forward the deferred TILs and then also give a little bit more color on the cadence of that productive capacity throughout this year?

所以我想知道您是否可以再多談一下提前延期的 TIL 的決策過程，然後再多介紹一下今年全年生產能力的節奏？

I know you have the 1Q guide and the full year number, but how are you thinking about the volume trajectory as we move through 2025 for the business?

我知道您有第一季指南和全年數據，但您如何看待 2025 年業務的銷售趨勢？

Yes.

是的。

Good questions, Devin.

好問題，德文。

So we're again, I want to go back to talking about how we think about the macro and thinking about a two to three-year look of underwriting a price range here, and we've landed at $3.50 to $4.

因此，我們再次，我想回到談論我們如何看待宏觀，並考慮兩到三年的承保價格範圍，我們的價格範圍定在 3.50 美元到 4 美元。

There's a lot that goes into that.

這其中涉及很多事情。

And ultimately, you're thinking about the trajectory of supply and demand and all of the features of the market that will impact supply and demand over the next couple of years.

最終，你會考慮供需的軌跡以及未來幾年影響供需的所有市場特徵。

And so on the supply side, you're certainly thinking about how many rigs are running, how many wells are being completed, the productivity of those wells, how many pipes are coming online, including from associated gas areas like the Permian and building out a pretty good view of what the supply to the market looks like.

因此在供應方面，你肯定會考慮有多少鑽井平台在運行，有多少油井正在完工，這些油井的產量如何，有多少管道正在上線（包括來自二疊紀等相關天然氣區的管道），以及如何很好地了解市場供應狀況。

On the demand side, we're going to pay a lot of attention to the trends of power generation, and what fuels power generation growth is relying on trends of industrial demand.

在需求方面，我們會非常關注發電的趨勢，而發電量的成長是依賴工業需求的趨勢。

And then certainly, what we see now as the big driver is the increase in LNG export capacity, which requires a view not just of what that -- of the aggregate capacity, but also a view of the likely utilization of that capacity.

當然，我們現在看到的最大驅動力是液化天然氣出口能力的增加，這不僅需要考慮總產能，還需要考慮這些產能的可能利用情況。

Which, again, we've talked about initially, we think is going to be very, very high, and then over the next few years, would potentially begin to run at less than 100% capacity as more and more comes online.

我們最初也討論過，我們認為這個比例會非常非常高，然後在接下來的幾年裡，隨著越來越多的資料中心上線，其運行容量可能會開始低於 100％。

So all of that informs this longer-term view.

所有這些都為這一長期觀點提供了資訊。

One of the things that you do pay attention to as a part of all of this analysis is where storage is.

在進行所有這些分析時，您確實需要注意的事情之一就是儲存的位置。

So we've had this constructive view on the longer term.

因此，我們對長期持這種建設性的看法。

And then as we got through this winter, you see that it's been very cold, of course, and storage has drawn down a good bit, which just accelerates the timing at which the market is seeking incremental supply so that storage doesn't run too low.

然後，當我們度過這個冬天時，你會發現天氣非常寒冷，當然，存儲量已經下降了不少，這只是加速了市場尋求增量供應的時間，以使存儲量不會過低。

I think the multiyear look hasn't really changed much for us, and all that's changed is that the starting point at which the market is looking for more supply has come to us a little bit sooner as a result of their being a cold winter.

我認為，多年的前景對我們來說並沒有太大的變化，唯一的變化是，由於今年冬天寒冷，市場尋求更多供應的起點來得更快一些。

We think it's really important to maintain this view that is multiyear, multi-season so that we don't end up chasing a near-term event of price in the market.

我們認為保持這種多年、多季節的觀點非常重要，這樣我們就不會最終追逐市場中的短期價格事件。

And then again, to make sure we have the flexibility in our business to continue to review those assumptions over time.

再次，確保我們的業務具有靈活性，可以隨著時間的推移繼續審查這些假設。

I'll ask Josh to comment just on the trajectory of production this year and going into next, because we gave a lot of thought about that as we have the flexibility with our deferred TIL strategy.

我會請喬希對今年和明年的生產軌跡進行評論，因為我們對此進行了大量考慮，因為我們的延期 TIL 策略具有靈活性。

Yes.

是的。

Devin, we absolutely started to see some strengthening fundamentals as we were exiting the year.

德文，在即將結束這一年之際，我們確實開始看到一些基本面的加強。

And so we did start to bring online some of the deferred TILs at the back end of December.

因此，我們確實在 12 月底開始上線一些延期的 TIL。

In fact, across the fourth quarter, we brought on about 40 wells, and roughly 25 of those were technically deferred TILs.

事實上，整個第四季度，我們共開採了大約 40 口油井，其中大約 25 口從技術上來說屬於延期 TIL。

And what you have to just remember in this is what we've been able to accomplish with just -- let's just say, those 25 wells, those wells could have come online in a $2 gas price environment.

你們要記住的是，我們僅憑這一點就能完成——假設這 25 口井可以在 2 美元的天然氣價格環境下投產。

But instead, we were able to bring them on into a very strong environment with roughly $4 gas.

但相反，我們能夠以大約 4 美元的 Gas 將它們帶入非常強大的環境。

So we feel really good about that decision.

因此我們對這個決定感到非常滿意。

Then as we come into the first quarter, and again, fundamentals remain strong.

當我們進入第一季時，基本面依然強勁。

We talked about weather.

我們談論天氣。

We've seen relatively strong LNG feed gas pools as well, which, again, we think is helping to tighten storage.

我們也看到了相對強勁的液化天然氣原料氣池，我們再次認為這有助於收緊儲存。

And so across the first quarter, we're anticipating bringing on roughly 90 wells into the markets.

因此，在第一季度，我們預計將有大約 90 口油井投放市場。

And just to give you a little bit of perspective on what that means from a trajectory standpoint, of course, we've guided to a [675] number for Q1.

當然，只是為了讓您從軌蹟的角度稍微了解一下這意味著什麼，我們已經將第一季的數字預期定為 [675]。

But we expect to grow from the end of December, where our production was just over 6.4 Bcf a day.

但我們預計從12月底開始產量將會成長，目前我們的每日產量剛超過64億立方英尺。

We expect to exit March around seven Bcf a day.

我們預計，3 月每天的出口量約為 70 億立方英尺。

And so when you talk about kind of short cycle market response to production, that's really what we've created here.

因此，當您談到對生產的短週期市場反應時，這實際上就是我們在這裡創造的。

And so with the deployment of our deferred TILs, which we expect to be extinguished effectively by the first half of this year, we expect to be kind of up on plane between, say, seven and 7.1 Bcf a day heading into the second quarter.

因此，隨著我們延長 TIL 的部署，我們預計到今年上半年將有效消除 TIL，我們預計到第二季度，TIL 的日產量將達到 70 至 71 億立方英尺之間。

And we'd expect to maintain that type of production as we exit the year, which then, of course, positions us to be able to benefit from the productive capacity that will now build on this up cycle as we look to exit 2025.

我們希望在今年年底時保持這種產量，這當然使我們能夠從現在在這個上升週期中建立的生產能力中受益，因為我們期待在 2025 年底時實現這一目標。

Got it.

知道了。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And my follow-up is on that productive capacity. slide 8 has the building blocks of capital and also some breakdown of where that incremental $300 million of spending would go.

我的後續關注點是生產能力。第 8 頁投影片介紹了資本的組成要素以及新增的 3 億美元支出的去向。

And I think it's notable that it's actually split across Appalachia and the Haynesville, you have some going to each of your core assets.

我認為值得注意的是，它實際上分佈在阿巴拉契亞和海恩斯維爾，其中一部分用於各自的核心資產。

So I was wondering if you could just talk a bit more about how you think about allocating growth capital across the different assets in your portfolio?

所以我想知道您是否可以再多談談您如何在投資組合的不同資產之間分配成長資本？

And maybe as part of that, if you could just address the takeaway situation in Northeast Pennsylvania and how much room there actually is to boost volumes there?

也許作為其中的一部分，您能否解決賓州東北部的外賣情況以及那裡實際上有多少提升銷售的空間？

Yes.

是的。

So we think about allocating capital across these assets, just as you alluded to in your question.

因此，我們考慮在這些資產之間分配資本，就像您在問題中提到的那樣。

Our ability to grow is primarily in the Haynesville.

我們的成長能力主要在海恩斯維爾。

In Appalachia, the capital that's coming in there is really in recognition of what the existing capacity is and bringing production up to those capacity levels.

在阿巴拉契亞，流入的資本實際上是為了確認現有產能，並將生產提升到這些產能水準。

We know where we've been able to produce successfully in the past, and we're not going to attempt to go beyond that.

我們知道過去我們能夠成功生產的地方，我們不會試圖超越這一點。

So the growth capital that you really see is more about the Haynesville.

因此，您真正看到的成長資本與海恩斯維爾有關。

I just want to remind everybody that we do sit right adjacent to the LNG growth corridor and have 2.5 Bcf a day by the end of this year of capacity to deliver to Gillis.

我只是想提醒大家，我們確實位於液化天然氣成長走廊的旁邊，到今年年底，每天向吉利斯輸送 25 億立方英尺天然氣的產能將達到。

So as you think about where that LNG gas is going to come from, it's going to primarily be sourced from Gillis.

因此，當您考慮液化天然氣的來源時，您會發現它主要來自吉利斯 (Gillis)。

We have the [LEAP] pipeline and the NG3 pipeline and in aggregate, that's 2.5 Bcf a day that gets delivered right to the source of growing demand.

我們擁有 [LEAP] 管道和 NG3 管道，總計每天可輸送 25 億立方英尺天然氣到不斷增長的需求源頭。

And so the incremental volumes that we really think about here as we increase our volume profile into 2026 are focused on meeting that growing demand.

因此，當我們將產量預測提高到 2026 年時，我們真正考慮的增量主要是為了滿足不斷增長的需求。

This is not delivering volumes into a static environment.

這不會將磁碟區傳送到靜態環境中。

Neil Mehta, GS.

Neil Mehta，GS。

It's Neil Mehta here.

我是尼爾·梅塔。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

All right, Nick.

好的，尼克。

I just wanted to spend some time just talking about return of capital and capital allocation and those three tranches that you outlined in the deck and your objective here in 2025 as you transition from delevering to focusing potentially on shrinking your share count too?

我只是想花一些時間談論資本回報和資本配置以及您在簡報中概述的三個部分，以及您在 2025 年從去槓桿過渡到可能專注於縮減股份數量時的目標？

Sure.

當然。

We're pretty happy with the cash flow profile that's in front of us for the next couple of years.

我們對未來幾年的現金流狀況非常滿意。

One, we've prioritized that pay down.

首先，我們優先考慮償還這筆款項。

And you can see that really clearly in that waterfall.

您可以從瀑布中清楚地看到這一點。

We've put in place a $500 million debt pay down goal for the year.

我們制定了今年償還 5 億美元債務的目標。

That's on top of the fact that we retired the outstanding revolving credit facility that was Southwestern's at the close.

除此之外，我們還在收盤時終止了西南航空的未償還循環信貸額度。

We've paid down $389 million of bonds that were maturing in January.

我們已經償還了 1 月到期的 3.89 億美元債券。

And then we've done another refinancing, of course, with our first investment-grade issuance that allowed us to push out some maturities.

然後，我們當然又進行了一次再融資，首次發行投資等級債券，這使我們能夠延長一些債券的到期日。

So we have a really good runway in front of us to retire debt and a lot of cash flow to do it.

因此，我們面前有非常好的跑道來償還債務，並且有大量的現金流來實現這一目標。

So that $500 million out of our free cash flow will flow towards debt paydown as well as we have a little bit of incremental proceeds from the Eagle Ford sales that will come to us in deferred proceeds in 2025, that will go towards debt paydown as well.

因此，我們自由現金流中的 5 億美元將用於償還債務，同時我們從 Eagle Ford 銷售中獲得的少量增量收益將在 2025 年以遞延收益的形式歸還給我們，這些收益也將用於償還債務。

So we're taking a pretty good swipe at the balance sheet.

因此，我們對資產負債表進行了相當好的分析。

We're going to end the year with less than $4.5 billion of net debt based on the recent strip.

根據最近的數據，我們今年的淨債務預計將少於 45 億美元。

So we feel pretty good about that.

因此我們對此感覺非常好。

That will obviously be well under 1 times EBITDA with prices around where they are.

顯然，按照目前的股價計算，這將遠低於 EBITDA 的 1 倍。

I would also remind you that that $500 million is a target that we'll set each year.

我還要提醒你們，5 億美元是我們每年設定的目標。

So next year, we will have another debt paydown target.

所以明年我們將有另一個債務償還目標。

And what we've attempted to do with this framework is allow for a good balance of ensuring that our balance sheet stays very, very strong.

我們嘗試利用這個框架來實現良好的平衡，確保我們的資產負債表保持非常非常強勁。

It's, as you know, with the history of our company and the way we've been able to bring assets into the portfolio that have been very accretive to our overall returns profile, we believe you need to have a very strong balance sheet to do that.

如您所知，鑑於我們公司的歷史以及我們將資產引入投資組合的方式，這些資產對我們的整體回報狀況非常有益，我們認為您需要擁有非常強大的資產負債表才能做到這一點。

So we're going to continue to have a really strong balance sheet.

因此我們將繼續擁有強勁的資產負債表。

You need a strong balance sheet to allocate your capital efficiency and maintain the flexibility to allow production to decrease and increase as we've done over the last year.

您需要一份強大的資產負債表來分配您的資本效率並保持靈活性，以允許產量減少和增加，就像我們去年所做的那樣。

And that balance sheet strength is such an important part of how we think about our competitive position in the market that it will stay front of mind for us and be protected.

資產負債表的實力是我們思考市場競爭地位的重要組成部分，因此我們會始終將資產負債表的實力放在首位並加以保護。

And then beyond that, though, we're going to generate a lot of excess free cash flow.

除此之外，我們還將產生大量剩餘的自由現金流。

And we think that that needs to be returned to shareholders in a pretty significant proportion.

我們認為，其中很大一部分需要返還給股東。

So that remaining tranche then, we have the flexibility to return to shareholders, 75% of it either in the form of buybacks or variable dividends.

因此，剩餘的部分，我們可以靈活地以回購或浮動股利的形式返還給股東，其中 75% 是可以的。

We will use that flexibility to be thoughtful about the most efficient way to do that for shareholders.

我們將利用這種靈活性來仔細考慮為股東實現這一目標的最有效方法。

Over the last couple of years, you've seen us use both.

在過去的幾年中，您已經看到我們將兩者都用上了。

And I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to use both.

如果我們繼續同時使用這兩種方法，我不會感到驚訝。

Yes.

是的。

Nick, and that kind of brings us to the follow-up, which is you guys have done a great job of hedging the wedge or taking advantage of the constructive forward gas curve.

尼克，這給我們帶來了後續問題，那就是你們在對沖楔子或利用建設性遠期天然氣曲線方面做得很好。

Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the hedging strategy on a go forward?

您能談談您對未來的對沖策略的看法嗎？

Does hedge the wedge still makes sense?

對沖楔子仍然有意義嗎？

Or have you gotten to an optimal level at this point?

還是你現在已經達到最佳水準了？

And just how you're thinking about that part of risk management?

那麼您如何看待風險管理的這一部分？

Yes.

是的。

Our hedging strategy, we feel like has worked really well for us.

我們覺得我們的對沖策略確實非常有效。

We had a really nice offset to the low prices last year that supported our cash flow.

去年低價對我們產生了很好的抵銷作用，從而支持了我們的現金流。

And despite the fact that gas average for the year about $2.26, we ended the year with a nearly neutral free cash flow position that's really largely supported by our hedges.

儘管全年天然氣平均價格約為 2.26 美元，但我們年底的自由現金流狀況幾乎是中性的，這在很大程度上受到了我們的對沖的支持。

In 2025, as prices have run quite a bit, are hedge losses are a fraction of what that gain was last year.

到 2025 年，由於價格已經上漲了不少，對沖損失只是去年收益的一小部分。

And that's a function of the fact that we've hedged, we think, on a rolling basis that has really made sense so that we have exposure to the right prices in the market that we're setting the appropriate floors.

這是因為我們已進行滾動對沖，我們認為這確實很有意義，這樣我們就能接觸到市場上正確的價格，並設定適當的底價。

And we've been able to use a fair amount of collars as we approached the start of 2025.

隨著 2025 年的臨近，我們已經能夠使用相當數量的項圈。

We like the approach.

我們喜歡這種方法。

We like having roughly 50% to 60% of the first year hedged and then less in the second year and continuing to lag into those hedges over time.

我們希望第一年的對沖比例約為 50% 到 60%，第二年則減少，並且隨著時間的推移繼續進行這些對沖。

We also would acknowledge that in recent weeks, as prices have been a lot stronger, we're not afraid to shift for near-term prices more towards swaps.

我們也承認，最近幾週，由於價格大幅走強，我們不害怕將短期價格轉向掉期。

You're elevating the floor of your locked-in price, and you're also willing to move to the higher end of your ranges of targeted levels of hedges.

您正在提高鎖定價格的底線，並且您還願意將目標對沖水平提升到範圍的高端。

We see prices in 2025 that, like I noted a few minutes ago, are well above the marginal breakevens in the industry.

正如我幾分鐘前提到的，我們看到 2025 年的價格將遠高於產業的邊際損益平衡點。

And when you see that, you want to hedge more, and you want to go ahead and lock in those prices.

當您看到這種情況時，您會想要進行更多對沖，並且想要繼續鎖定這些價格。

So that's what we'll continue to do.

所以我們會繼續這樣做。

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰‧弗里曼、雷蒙‧詹姆斯。

The first question I had is -- just following up on an earlier question.

我的第一個問題是──只是繼續之前的一個問題。

Josh, when you were kind of going over the accelerated pull forward on the deferred TILs, just to sort of level set kind of the model since I know that the plan is that, as you said, all the TILs basically get exhausted first half of the year, and I believe the plan assumes about 85% of the DUCs get bottom line this year as well.

喬希，當您在加速推進延期 TIL 時，只是為了對模型進行某種程度的調整，因為我知道計劃是，正如您所說，所有的 TIL 基本上都會在上半年耗盡，而且我相信該計劃假設大約 85% 的 DUC 今年也會達到底線。

Where did the deferred TILs and the DUCs stand at year-end?

遞延的 TIL 和 DUC 截至年底的情況如何？

Yes.

是的。

So because we started bringing on wells in the back end of the quarter, which was about 25 that's deferred TILs, that left us with about 55 to 60 deferred TILs at year-end and between 50 and 60 DUCs at year-end.

因此，由於我們在本季末開始投入使用油井，其中約有 25 個是延期的 TIL，這使得我們在年底時擁有約 55 至 60 個延期的 TIL，並在年底擁有 50 至 60 個 DUC。

And justslidecomment I would make on the DUCs is that we have assumed a somewhat ratable activation of the DUCs across the year.

我對 DUC 的簡單評論是，我們假設全年 DUC 的活化程度會有一定的可評估性。

And of course, there's a capital amount that comes along with that.

當然，這還需要一定的資本。

One of the things we really like about the plan is just to retain flexibility that we have.

我們真正喜歡這個計劃的原因之一是它保留了我們原有的靈活性。

And we have this option to actually accelerate the completion of the DUCs that creates more flexibility in the year from a production standpoint while holding capital flat.

我們有這個選擇，可以實際上加速 DUC 的完成，從生產的角度來說，這可以在保持資本平穩的同時創造更多的靈活性。

And so though we'll have activated over all of our deferred TILs.

因此，我們將啟動所有延期的 TIL。

We still feel like we've retained flexibility with the DUCs throughout the calendar year.

我們仍然覺得我們在整個日曆年中保留了 DUC 的靈活性。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And my follow-up, when looking at that slide 9, it would appear that going from kind of 7.5 Bs a day to call it, 8-plus Bs a day, it looks like just trying to back into what you've got for the CapEx, that it doesn't look like there's like a material kind of increase that's needed on infrastructure spend.

我的後續問題是，當我們查看第 9 張幻燈片時，似乎從每天 75 億盧比增加到每天 80 億盧比以上，這看起來只是試圖回到資本支出的水平，看起來不需要在基礎設施支出上進行實質性的增加。

It looks like you'll can handle that without any big step change on that front.

看起來您可以處理該問題，而無需在這方面進行任何重大的更改。

Is that the right read on that?

這樣解讀正確嗎？

Yes, that is the right read.

是的，這是正確的解讀。

What you need to remember is just where both companies were operating prior to deal announcement at the end of 2023.

你需要記住的是，在 2023 年底宣布交易之前，兩家公司的營運情況如何。

And so we have adequate offtake, the infrastructure, both in the field and with the transport is capable.

因此，我們擁有充足的承購量，現場和運輸方面的基礎設施都很完善。

And so effectively with what we're doing right now, we're restoring volumes.

透過我們現在採取的有效措施，我們正在恢復產量。

And then the productive capacity that we'll build will essentially continue down a path to get us to a spot where we're just more fully utilizing the infrastructure that we have access to.

然後，我們建造的生產能力基本上將繼續沿著一條道路前進，使我們能夠更充分地利用我們可以使用的基礎架構。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

花旗銀行的保羅戴蒙德 (Paul Diamond)。

Apologies, the line cut out there for a second.

抱歉，電話暫時斷線了。

I just wanted to talk about slide 15.

我只想談談第 15 張投影片。

You guys talked about having made some good progress on the -- good progress on the drilling activity.

你們談到了鑽探活動取得了一些良好進展。

I just wonder if require -- if there was there any opportunity there or the timing of such?

我只是想知道是否需要——那裡是否有任何機會或這樣的時機？

Like I guess, how much meat is left on the bone there?

我猜，骨頭上還剩下多少肉？

Yes.

是的。

We still feel like there's plenty of room to drive improvements.

我們仍然覺得還有很大的進步空間。

And this is -- this slide on slide 15, of course, is focused on the Haynesville.

當然，第 15 張幻燈片重點介紹了海恩斯維爾。

And I just -- I would say that we've been incredibly pleased with the progress that the team has made through our diligence process with the transaction.

我想說的是，我們對團隊在交易盡職調查過程中的進展感到非常高興。

We had pretty clear understanding of what the gap was in terms of days.

我們非常清楚天數方面的差距有多大。

And we utilized the time of our integration planning really to break that down into wealth segments.

我們利用整合規劃的時間將其分解為財富各個部分。

And we've used that time, obviously, effectively to allow us to realize more than a 20% improvement in our footage per day and 20% improvement in cost just in the first quarter.

顯然，我們有效地利用了這段時間，僅在第一季就使我們的每日拍攝量提高了 20% 以上，成本降低了 20%。

And so to your question, we're going to continue to improve on this.

對於您的問題，我們將繼續改進這一點。

And talking to the teams, we know there's additional opportunities.

透過與團隊交談，我們知道還有更多機會。

I'm seeing that even just flowing into the first quarter.

我看到它甚至剛剛進入第一季。

So we feel really good about the trajectory that we're on.

因此，我們對於目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

And then the thing that I would also just mention, again, we've focused this in on the Haynesville for this discussion.

然後我還要再提到，我們這次討論的重點是海恩斯維爾。

But we just drilled a 5.5-mile lateral up in West Virginia, and we did so with a single bit run in just over five days.

但我們剛剛在西維吉尼亞州鑽了一個 5.5 英里長的水平井，而且我們只花了五天多的時間就完成了。

And that type of progress that we see in an asset, that clearly has an opportunity to kind of lend itself into the other areas that ultimately translates into incremental synergies.

我們在資產中看到的這種進展顯然有機會應用到其他領域，最終轉化為漸進的協同效應。

So we definitely think there's meat on the bone and really, really excited about what we have in front of us.

因此，我們確實認為這是有實質內容的，並且對我們面前的成果真的感到非常興奮。

Understood.

明白了。

And just one quick follow-up.

最後再跟進一下。

Thinking about the rig adds in second half.

思考下半場的鑽孔機增加。

How should we think about the timing and cadence?

我們該如何思考時間和節奏？

Or is that purely reactive?

還是這純粹是被動反應？

Or is there a plan for July 1 and then October 1?

或有沒有 7 月 1 日和 10 月 1 日的計畫？

Just kind of how to think about the timing there?

那麼如何考慮那裡的時間安排呢？

Yes, Paul, I'll lay that out for you.

是的，保羅，我會向你詳細說明的。

The [rig adds] are premised across the second half of the year.

[鑽孔機新增] 是基於今年下半年的情況。

What we're looking at right now is that we'd add a couple of rigs in the third quarter.

我們現在考慮的是，我們將在第三季增加幾個鑽孔機。

Those would be destined for the Haynesville and Northeast App.

這些將被運往 Haynesville 和 Northeast App。

And then in the fourth quarter, we would expect to add a rig in Southwest App and then the ninth rig in the Haynesville.

然後在第四季度，我們預計將在 Southwest App 增加一座鑽機，然後在 Haynesville 增加第九座鑽機。

Understood.

明白了。

Appreciate the clarity.

欣賞其清晰度。

I'll leave it there.

我就把它留在那裡。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德、約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning, Nick, to you and Josh and the rest of the Expand team there.

早安，尼克，向你、喬希以及 Expand 團隊的其他成員問好。

Nick, I wanted to ask a question about page 10.

尼克，我想問一個關於第 10 頁的問題。

Really, this graph on the left side of the page.

確實，這個圖表位於頁面左側。

And my first reaction when I see this is, it reminds me of my son's high school trigonometry homework.

當我看到這個時，我的第一個反應是，它讓我想起了我兒子的高中三角學作業。

It makes me think maybe whoever came up with this slide is looking at something similar recently.

這讓我想到也許製作這張投影片的人最近正在研究一些類似的東西。

But I think what this is -- this is the -- this is trying to describe the dynamics around the baseline kind of scenario that you're outlining on page 9.

但我認為這是——這是——這是試圖描述您在第 9 頁概述的基線情景的動態。

And if that's the right interpretation, I look at this, and I think the message that you're trying to send is that you will be increasing CapEx when you're underproducing, presumably when prices are low and that you'll be kind of maximizing CapEx and starting to draw down when prices are higher.

如果這是正確的解釋，我看一下，我認為你想要傳達的訊息是，當你產量不足時，你將增加資本支出，大概是在價格低的時候，而當價格較高時，你將最大化資本支出並開始減少。

But I wonder if you could guide our interpretation of that -- this dynamic that you've laid out here?

但我想知道您是否可以指導我們對此進行解釋——您在這裡列出的這種動態？

Yes.

是的。

You're talking about our attempt to be countercyclical.

您談到了我們逆週期調節的嘗試。

And generally, I would agree with you.

整體來說，我同意你的觀點。

I would say that it's not going to be quite as simple as you just described.

我想說它不會像你剛才描述的那麼簡單。

But generally, this is a look at how we would attempt to be responsive to market conditions in a way that is faster than the cycles of capital will typically allow you to be in this industry.

但總體來說，這是一個觀察過程，即我們如何嘗試以比該行業通常允許的資本週期更快的方式對市場狀況做出反應。

If we go put capital to work in this industry today, it takes us a couple of years to bring production online and then earn a return on that production.

如果我們今天向這個行業投入資本，那麼我們需要幾年的時間才能投入生產並獲得生產回報。

From the point of what you make the decision until the time at which you have the return of capital in the bank from that decision, it's a couple of years.

從你做出決定到你從銀行收回資本，需要幾年的時間。

So what you really want is a business that's much more flexible in a market that has conditions to change much faster than that cycle of capital.

因此，你真正想要的是一家在市場條件變化速度遠快於資本週期變化速度的市場中更靈活的企業。

And this is really meant to describe how we would achieve that.

這實際上是為了描述我們如何實現這一目標。

We are very willing to allow production to fall in the near term.

我們非常願意允許產量在短期內下降。

And then as you bring production back to move above a targeted midpoint when prices are there to support that.

然後，當你將產量恢復到目標中點以上時，價格就會支撐這個目標。

And so what you should think about is you accelerate and decelerate capital if you want to move that middle dash line.

因此，如果您想移動中間的虛線，您應該考慮加速和減速資本。

But you move above and below that dash line based on the near-term conditions in the market.

但是，您可以根據市場的近期狀況在該虛線上或線下移動。

That is helpful, Nick.

這很有幫助，尼克。

That adds to my understanding.

這加深了我的理解。

And then one other thing, Nick, as a follow-up.

然後還有一件事，尼克，作為後續。

Twice now, I think you've mentioned marginal breakeven for the industry.

我認為您已經兩次提到了該行業的邊際盈虧平衡。

Can you share what you think that is and where Expand sits vis-a-vis the industry on that marginal breakeven?

您能否分享一下您的想法以及 Expand 在邊際盈虧平衡方面相對於行業的地位？

Sure.

當然。

I mean, I think we can all calculate like a specific number in a supply model on what marginal breakeven is.

我的意思是，我認為我們都可以透過供應模型來計算邊際盈虧平衡的具體數字。

Of course, everybody is going to look at it a little bit differently.

當然，每個人對此的看法都會有所不同。

So we think that number is -- I'm going to just call it loosely in the mid-3s.

所以我們認為這個數字是 - 我只是大致地稱它為 3 中間。

And so we think we sit probably on the lower end of that as a business because we have a huge amount of inventory at very, very low cost in the Marcellus, and then we have lower-cost inventory in the Haynesville than some of our peers, lower cost because we still have a lot of development in the core of the Haynesville and also because we have the best capital efficiency in the Haynesville, and we have a slide in the deck that details that.

因此，我們認為，作為一家企業，我們可能處於較低水平，因為我們在馬塞勒斯擁有大量成本非常非常低的庫存，而且我們在海恩斯維爾的庫存成本也低於我們的一些同行，成本較低是因為我們在海恩斯維爾的核心地區仍有大量開發項目，也因為我們在海恩斯維爾擁有最好的資本效率，我們在演示文稿中有一個幻燈片詳細介紹了這一點。

So we think we sit in a really attractive position relative to the industry's marginal breakeven.

因此，我們認為，相對於產業的邊際損益平衡，我們處於一個非常有吸引力的位置。

And that's super important because if you're going to be a company that responds to supply and demand signals, you really need to know where you sit.

這非常重要，因為如果您想成為一家響應供需訊號的公司，您真的需要知道您的位置。

And if you're at the tail end of that marginal breakeven, you shouldn't be the first company to respond, but I don't think that's where we are.

如果你處於邊際盈虧平衡的尾端，你不應該是第一個做出反應的公司，但我不認為我們現在處於這種情況。

We are most proximate to the growing demand.

我們最接近不斷增長的需求。

And in that area of proximity, we have the most capital-efficient assets.

在那個鄰近地區，我們擁有資本效率最高的資產。

And so we really like our competitive position.

所以我們非常喜歡我們的競爭地位。

Zach Parham, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的紮克‧帕勒姆 (Zach Parham)。

First, Josh, you mentioned some meat on the bone left on driving D&C costs lower.

首先，喬希，你提到了降低 D&C 成本方面還剩下一些實質的內容。

Have you built any of those incremental D&C declines into the CapEx budget?

您是否已將這些增量 D&C 下降計入資本支出預算？

I mean, you've been consistently coming in at the low end or below on CapEx over the last several quarters.

我的意思是，在過去幾個季度裡，你們的資本支出一直處於低端或以下。

So just trying to get a sense on if that trend could be set to continue?

那麼只是想了解這種趨勢是否能夠持續下去？

Yes.

是的。

So what I would say is that for the $400 million of synergy, that does account for additional improvements.

所以我想說的是，4 億美元的綜效確實可以帶來額外的改善。

But I do believe and I have an expectation that we continue to find opportunities to enhance efficiencies through the year.

但我確實相信並且期望我們能夠在全年繼續尋找提高效率的機會。

And if realized, will create upside to the capital needed to execute our 2025 program.

一旦實現，將為執行我們的2025計劃所需的資本創造上升空間。

Zach, one thing I would add to that is just as we think about our synergies over time -- and this goes back to a little bit of a question that Doug was asking at the beginning of the call.

扎克，我想補充一點，當我們思考我們隨著時間的推移所產生的協同效應時——這又回到了道格在通話開始時提出的一個小問題。

We've identified $500 million in synergies that we think are very clearly tied to this merger.

我們已確定了 5 億美元的綜效，我們認為這些效應與此合併密切相關。

Now ongoing, one of the reasons you put together businesses like this and the reasons you're excited about it are that there's increasing opportunities each and every day to improve upon your business.

現在，您創辦這類企業的原因之一以及您對此感到興奮的原因是，每天都有越來越多的機會來改善您的業務。

So where we see the line between synergies that are directly tied to the merging of the two entities versus ongoing improvements in our business will become more and more gray every day post close.

因此，我們看到，與兩個實體合併直接相關的協同效應與我們業務的持續改進之間的界線在交易結束後會變得越來越模糊。

So we're going to be really accountable for this first $500 million, and then we're just going to continue to improve our business every day.

所以，我們將真正對這第一個 5 億美元負責，然後我們將繼續每天改善我們的業務。

That's helpful color.

這是很有幫助的顏色。

And then just wanted to follow up on a couple of the earlier questions.

然後我只是想跟進一下之前的幾個問題。

So you currently talked about anchoring to that 7.5 Bcf a day level in 2026, which -- in the slide in the deck, that's based on a mid-cycle price of $3.50. The strips above that level over the next couple of years, do you see any scenarios where you would move production higher from that 7.5 Bcf a day level in 2026?

因此，您目前談到了在 2026 年將天然氣產量穩定在每天 75 億立方英尺的水平，在幻燈片中，這是基於 3.50 美元的中期價格。未來幾年，如果天然氣產量超過這一水平，您是否認為有某種情況可以使產量從 2026 年的每天 75 億立方英尺的水平進一步提高？

Just trying to get a sense of how flexible you could be there, both going higher and lower?

只是想了解你在那裡能有多靈活，無論是高或低？

You certainly could go higher, Zach.

你當然可以走得更高，札克。

I think it would take underwriting a price above $4.

我認為承銷價格必須高於 4 美元。

If you look at that heat map chart, you can see that for us to be comfortable targeting a price above or targeting a level of production above 7.5 Bcf a day, you probably want to be underwriting a price, meaning you have confidence in a forward look for two to three years that's $4 or higher.

如果你看一下熱圖，你會發現，為了讓我們能夠放心地將價格定在 75 億立方英尺/天以上的水平，或者將產量定在 75 億立方英尺/天以上的水平，你可能希望承銷一個價格，這意味著你有信心在未來兩到三年內將價格定在 4 美元或更高。

Not quite where we are today.

跟我們現在的狀況還不太一樣。

The dynamics for the gas market are super constructive, and we feel really good about the near term here.

天然氣市場的動態非常具有建設性，我們對近期的前景感到非常樂觀。

But we also know that, like I mentioned earlier, these prices will elicit a supply response.

但我們也知道，正如我之前提到的，這些價格將引起供應反應。

And so we want to make sure we're not getting in front of that, and we're thinking through that and prepared for how that dynamic will evolve over time.

因此，我們要確保我們不會走在這一點的前面，我們正在仔細考慮這個問題，並為這種動態隨著時間的推移將如何演變做好準備。

Our market never responds perfectly and is always overreacting to one side or the other.

我們的市場從未做出完美的反應，並且總是對某一方反應過度。

But given the lack of rig count increase that we've seen as we've gone through this winter, we do think that the supply response should be a bit more muted this time than what we've seen in some past cycles.

但考慮到今年冬季鑽井數量並沒有增加，我們確實認為，這次的供應反應應該比過去幾個週期的供應反應要溫和一些。

And we think that's a really encouraging sign for the health of the market longer term.

我們認為這對於長期市場健康來說是一個非常令人鼓舞的訊號。

Now if any of those dynamics change and you see that the look out into '26, '27, '28 maintains a more constructive dynamic of supply and demand, then yes, we could underwrite a higher price.

現在，如果任何這些動態發生變化，並且您發現對 26、27、28 年的展望保持了更具建設性的供需動態，那麼是的，我們可以承保更高的價格。

I think the most likely thing that would drive that would be if we felt that the utilization of LNG on the Gulf Coast would remain at or near 100%, meaning that demand for LNG around the globe maintained a strong pull on U.S. supply through that entire period.

我認為最有可能推動這一趨勢的因素是，我們認為墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣利用率將保持在 100% 或接近 100%，這意味著在整個時期內，全球對液化天然氣的需求對美國供應保持強勁拉動。

We need to see that evolve.

我們需要看到它的發展。

We're not quite there today.

我們今天還沒有到達那裡。

The power growth demand story in the U.S. is another angle that could surprise to the upside.

美國電力成長需求的情況是另一個可能帶來意外驚喜的角度。

You'd have to see a real acceleration in how those plants are built, where they're built, and our ability to supply gas to them.

你必須看到這些工廠的建設方式、建造地點以及我們向它們供應天然氣的能力真正加速發展。

We really like our position for the power demand growth story in the U.S. because we are regionally diversified because we have access to infrastructure that can allow us to grow.

我們非常喜歡我們在美國電力需求成長中所處的地位，因為我們具有區域多元化，並且我們擁有可以讓我們發展的基礎設施。

So there's a good news story around all of those things.

所以，所有這些事情都有好消息要說。

But we want to see that play out before we would underwrite a higher price.

但我們想先看到這個結果，然後再承保更高的價格。

I'm using the word underwrite very intentionally, right?

我有意使用承保這個詞，對嗎？

We think about making a multiyear investment decision, and we think about it as an underwriting decision that should have an appropriate level of conservatism to it and be prepared to capture upside when it's available to us.

我們考慮做出一項多年的投資決策，並將其視為一項承保決策，該決策應具有適當的保守性，並準備在可能​​的情況下抓住上行空間。

Thanks, Nick.

謝謝，尼克。

That makes a lot of sense.

這很有道理。

Bert Donnes, Truist.

伯特·唐尼斯 (Bert Donnes)，Truist。

On potential data center agreements, maybe what are your thoughts on how involved you need to be in the project?

關於潛在的資料中心協議，您對需要在多大程度上參與該專案有何想法？

I guess where on the spectrum do you fall if maybe all the way on one side is you need to be a part of the upfront spend or maybe all the way on the other side where you just provide the gas and get a fixed price or a premium?

我想，如果可能一方面你需要參與前期支出，或者另一方面你只需要提供天然氣並獲得固定價格或溢價，那麼你處於哪個位置？

And do you think there's room for a consortium of names to provide the gas supply?

您認為由多個公司組成的財團有能力提供天然氣供應嗎？

Or should it be more siloed with each producer having kind of their own individual agreement?

或者應該更加孤立，每個生產者都有自己的單獨協議？

Those are good questions, Bert.

這些都是很好的問題，伯特。

I don't think they're completely known yet.

我認為人們還未完全了解它們。

We're open to all commercial structures associated with the creation and support of long-term demand for our industry.

我們對所有與創造和支持我們行業的長期需求相關的商業結構持開放態度。

What we like about those projects is that they do represent long-term structural demand, really sticky, not weather-driven, short-term events.

我們喜歡這些項目，因為它們確實代表了長期結構性需求，真正具有黏性，而不是受天氣驅動的短期事件。

So we're open to supporting that in a number of different ways, but we are also very cognizant of our cost of capital and what would be efficient for our shareholders for us to invest.

因此，我們願意以多種不同方式支持這一點，但我們也非常清楚我們的資本成本以及我們的股東如何進行有效投資。

So I don't know that we need to invest capital in the infrastructure.

所以我不知道我們是否需要在基礎設施上投資資金。

But under the right economic scenarios, would we?

但在正確的經濟情勢下，我們會這樣做嗎？

Sure.

當然。

We do definitely focus on what it means from a bottom line standpoint for the gas that we sell and the opportunity that we have to create a total return on our activities.

我們確實關注它對於我們銷售的天然氣的底線意義，以及我們為我們的活動創造總回報的機會。

As to whether or not we can do supply agreements like that on our own or you need a consortium, given our scale of supply, investment-grade balance sheet, our ability to deliver gas to a number of different places, we're -- we think it's perfect -- we're perfectly capable of doing things like that on our own, maybe even uniquely so.

至於我們是否可以自己達成這樣的供應協議或是否需要財團，考慮到我們的供應規模、投資等級資產負債表、以及我們向多個不同地方輸送天然氣的能力，我們認為這是完美的——我們完全有能力自己做這樣的事情，甚至是獨一無二的。

And at the same time, if there's a series of plants or a series of customers that want to have gas for multiple locations or want some diversity of supply, we can work with others on that as well.

同時，如果有一系列工廠或一系列客戶想要在多個地點供應天然氣或需要多樣化供應，我們也可以與其他人合作。

But we do think we're well situated to be a sole supplier for certain projects.

但我們確實認為我們有能力成為某些項目的獨家供應商。

Got you.

明白了。

Very clear.

非常清楚。

And then just shifting gears a little bit.

然後稍微換一下檔位。

You outlined most of the potential growth in the productive capacity scenario would come from the Haynesville, but I assume maybe some growth happens in Appalachia at higher prices?

您概述了生產能力情景中的大部分潛在增長將來自海恩斯維爾，但我認為也許在價格更高的情況下阿巴拉契亞地區也會出現一些增長？

And a few of your peers outlined growth plans in Appalachia that I think assume in-basin demand is going to materialize.

您的幾位同事概述了阿巴拉契亞地區的成長計劃，我認為這些計劃假設流域內的需求將會實現。

But could you maybe talk about if you're seeing availability of transportation pickups?

但您能否談談您是否看到了交通接送的可用性？

I mean, is -- are there roll-offs of other operators that aren't growing?

我的意思是，其他業者的銷售量有沒有成長？

Or just maybe how you think about if there is Appalachian growth, where do those incremental volumes head?

或者您認為如果阿巴拉契亞山脈有所增長，這些增量將會流向何處？

Another good question, Bert.

另一個好問題，伯特。

I think there's a little bit of all of that, not maybe in huge size.

我認為這些都有一點，但規模可能不大。

So there's always a little bit of roll-off from others as the basins mature.

因此，隨著盆地的成熟，總有少量的隕石從其他盆地滾落下來。

When that happens, we're really well positioned, should we want it to take advantage.

當這種情況發生時，我們就處於非常有利的位置，我們可以利用它。

There's definitely some in-basin demand growth.

流域內的需求肯定會有所成長。

And like I said, we're in the middle of a lot of those conversations to try to help encourage that.

正如我所說的，我們正在進行許多這樣的對話，試圖幫助鼓勵這一點。

There's discussion of new infrastructure, and you've seen some of that in the press lately, and we're going to pay really close attention to that.

有關於新基礎設施的討論，最近你們在媒體上也看到了一些，我們將密切關注這一點。

And if those projects make sense, we'll be a part of that as well.

如果這些項目有意義，我們也會參與其中。

The assets that we have in Appalachia, particularly our Northeast Pennsylvania position, is the most economic gas in the United States.

我們在阿巴拉契亞山脈擁有的資產，特別是賓州東北部的資產，是美國最具經濟效益的天然氣。

And any opportunity that we have to deliver more of that into a constructive market with durable demand, you should expect we will seek and achieve.

我們應該抓住任何機會，將更多的產品帶入具有持久需求的建設性市場，您應該期待我們能夠抓住並實現這一目標。

So those things are hard to make happen or they would have happened several times over, but there's probably a better opportunity to see those things happen today than there has been in quite a long time.

所以這些事情很難實現，否則它們就會發生好幾次，但今天可能比很長一段時間以來有更好的機會看到這些事情發生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And that does conclude today's Q&A session.

今天的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the call over to Nick for closing remarks.

我想將電話轉給尼克，請他做最後發言。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, everybody, for joining the call today.

感謝大家今天的電話會議。

We're really excited about what 2025 and 2026 has in store for us.

我們對 2025 年和 2026 年將要發生的事情感到非常興奮。

The market has been volatile, and we are better prepared for that volatility, we think, than just about anybody else out there.

市場一直不穩定，但我們認為，我們比其他任何人都更能應對這種波動。

We look forward to using that preparation and flexibility in our business to create incremental and attractive return for shareholders.

我們期待在業務中運用這種準備和靈活性，為股東創造增量和有吸引力的回報。

We'll all be on the road quite a bit over the next few weeks.

接下來的幾週我們都會常常出門。

And so probably see several of you out on the conference circuit and look forward to engaging with everybody.

因此，我們可能會在會議中看到你們中的一些人，並期待與大家交流。

Talk to you soon.

很快再和你聊。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you so much for joining.

非常感謝您的加入。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連線。