Expand Energy Corp (EXE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Expand Energy 2024 fourth quarter and full year teleconference. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres, Vice President of Investor Relations and Special Projects. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Expand Energy 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和特別項目副總裁克里斯艾爾斯 (Chris Ayres)。請繼續。

Thank you, Lisa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand's 2024 fourth quarter and full year financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation we posted to our website yesterday.

謝謝你，麗莎。大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，討論 Expand 2024 年第四季度和全年財務和營運業績。希望您有機會閱讀我們昨天發佈到我們網站上的新聞稿和更新後的投資者介紹。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements.

在今天早上的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述包括無法透過現有資訊確認的陳述，包括有關我們的信念、目標、期望、預測、預計和未來表現的陳述以及這些陳述所依據的假設。

Please also note, there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to materially differ from our forward-looking statements, including factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and other SEC filings. Please also recognize that as except required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

另請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異，包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。另請注意，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過度依賴此類陳述。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP measures which will help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, there's a reconciliation on our website.

我們也可以參考一些非公認會計準則指標，這將有助於跨時期和與同業進行比較。對於任何非 GAAP 指標，我們的網站上都有對帳。

With me on the call today are Nick Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh, Josh Viets and Dan Turco, our new EVP of Marketing and Commercial. Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A. So with that, thank you again, and I will now turn the teleconference over to Nick.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Nick Dell'Osso、Mohit Singh、Josh Viets 和我們新任行銷和商務執行副總裁 Dan Turco。尼克將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將開啟電話會議進行問答。因此，再次感謝您，現在我將電話會議交給尼克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today. The world's need for energy continues to grow. With our attractive market-connected portfolio, resilient financial foundation and peer-leading returns, Expand Energy was created specifically to better respond to this growing demand and yield stronger returns for shareholders in times of volatility.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。世界對能源的需求持續成長。Expand Energy 擁有極具吸引力的市場關聯投資組合、穩健的財務基礎和同行領先的回報，旨在更好地滿足日益增長的需求，並在市場動盪時期為股東帶來更豐厚的回報。

Our productive capacity strategy uniquely positions us to not simply react, but to capitalize on the dynamic market we see today. As our 2025 capital and operating plan demonstrates, this is exactly what we are doing. Benefiting from a powerful combination of premium rock returns and runway across our portfolio, access to advantaged markets and some of the most capital efficient operations in the industry, we've enhanced our outlook for 2025.

我們的生產能力策略使我們不僅能夠做出反應，還能利用當今動態的市場。正如我們的 2025 年資本和營運計劃所示，這正是我們正在做的事情。由於我們投資組合的優質穩定回報和跑道、進入優勢市場的機會以及業內一些最具資本效率的運營的強大組合，我們增強了對 2025 年的展望。

We continue to benefit from the tailwind of our 2024 productive capacity strategy and now expect to produce approximately 7.1 Bcf per day for a capital investment of approximately $2.7 billion. As market fundamentals continue to improve the outlook for natural gas, we are electing to invest an incremental $300 million to build approximately 300 million cubic feet per day of additional productive capacity.

我們持續受惠於 2024 年生產能力策略的順風，目前預計每天生產約 71 億立方英尺，資本投資約 27 億美元。隨著市場基本面繼續改善天然氣前景，我們選擇投資 3 億美元增量，以建立每天約 3 億立方英尺的額外生產能力。

This will allow us to efficiently deliver 7.5 Bcf per day in 2026, should market conditions warrant. We believe this level of production optimizes free cash flow at mid-cycle prices. Since we won't pull the trigger on this incremental capacity until midyear, we have time to watch the market, and we'll have the flexibility to adjust as necessary.

如果市場條件允許，這將使我們能夠在 2026 年有效地輸送 75 億立方英尺/天的天然氣。我們相信，這種生產水準可以優化中期價格的自由現金流。由於我們要到年中才會開始增加產能，因此我們有時間觀察市場，並可以根據需要靈活地進行調整。

Successful integration has further strengthened our outlook. We continue to capture significant capital and operating efficiencies, rapidly accelerating the achievement of our annual synergies. We now expect to achieve approximately $400 million of our annual synergy target in 2025 and to capture the entire $500 million target by year-end 2026.

成功的整合進一步加強了我們的前景。我們繼續獲得顯著的資本和營運效率，迅速加速實現我們的年度協同效應。我們現在預計，到 2025 年，我們的年度協同目標將達到約 4 億美元，到 2026 年底，我們將實現全部 5 億美元的目標。

I am especially encouraged to see the 20%-plus improvement we are delivering in our Haynesville drilling performance. In the fourth quarter alone, we cut nearly 9 days and $1.5 million in cost per well from Southwestern's legacy drilling performance.

我尤其高興地看到，我們的海恩斯維爾鑽井績效提高了 20% 以上。光是在第四季度，我們就比西南石油公司的傳統鑽井業績減少了近 9 天的鑽井時間，每口井的成本減少了 150 萬美元。

The definition of synergy success is clear, achieving capital and operating efficiencies that result in spending less while producing more, which is exactly what we're doing. Our resilient financial foundation and peer-leading returns program are two areas which also further differentiate our company. At today's prices, we expect to end 2025 with less than $4.5 billion in net debt. Our debut $750 million investment-grade issuance set a record spread for an energy rising star at 132 basis points over 10-year treasuries and cleared all near-term maturities through 2029.

協同成功的定義很明確，即實現資本和營運效率，從而減少支出並增加產量，而這正是我們正在做的事情。我們穩健的財務基礎和同行領先的回報計劃是進一步使我們的公司與眾不同的兩個方面。以今天的價格計算，我們預計到 2025 年底淨債務將少於 45 億美元。我們首次發行的 7.5 億美元投資等級債券創下了能源新星債券利差紀錄，比 10 年期國債利差高出 132 個基點，並清算了截至 2029 年的所有近期到期債券。

Our enhanced capital return framework is designed to efficiently return cash to shareholders and reduce net debt. After paying our $2.30 per share dividend, we expect to allocate $500 million to debt reduction in 2025. Given our strong free cash flow outlook, we expect to have additional cash available to allocate to a combination of variable dividends, share repurchases and the balance sheet.

我們增強的資本回報框架旨在有效地向股東返還現金並減少淨債務。在支付每股 2.30 美元的股息後，我們預計將在 2025 年撥款 5 億美元用於減債。鑑於我們強勁的自由現金流前景，我們預計將有更多現金可用於分配至浮動股息、股票回購和資產負債表的組合。

Turning to our marketing program. We see great opportunity to capitalize on our position as the nation's largest natural gas producer. There is greater than 11 Bcf per day of LNG capacity under construction, and the domestic power market continues to grow in support of data centers and rising consumer demand. We have the assets, balance sheet and capital efficient operations to help meet this new demand.

轉向我們的行銷計劃。我們看到了利用我們作為全國最大天然氣生產商的地位獲得巨大機會。目前，興建中的液化天然氣產能超過每天110億立方英尺，國內電力市場持續成長，以支援資料中心和不斷成長的消費者需求。我們擁有資產、資產負債表和資本高效的營運來幫助滿足這項新需求。

I'm pleased to welcome Dan Turco to our team to lead this effort. Dan has extensive experience creating value for marketing and trading programs and will help us realize the benefit of our advantaged position. The marketing program has already seen the value of our combined portfolio. Our team worked extremely hard from the date of close to fully integrate our marketing and transportation portfolio by January 1 of this year, allowing us to optimize the flow of volumes across pipes, increasing value for our gas and reducing costs.

我很高興歡迎 Dan Turco 加入我們的團隊來領導這項工作。Dan 在為行銷和交易計劃創造價值方面擁有豐富的經驗，並將幫助我們實現優勢地位的利益。行銷計劃已經看到了我們合併後的投資組合的價值。我們的團隊從交易完成之日起就非常努力地工作，以便在今年 1 月 1 日之前全面整合我們的行銷和運輸組合，使我們能夠優化管道流量，提高天然氣價值並降低成本。

Looking forward to 2026, once the NG3 pipe is online, approximately 75% of our marketed volumes are expected to reach strategic markets, including 2.5 Bcf per day directly to the growing LNG corridor. Expand's powerful combination of an attractive connected portfolio, a peer-leading returns program and resilient financial foundation is distinct among natural gas producers. Today's market provides a unique opportunity for our company, and we look forward to expanding opportunity for our shareholders in the year ahead. Operator, we'll now take questions.

展望2026年，一旦NG3管線投入使用，我們預計約75%的市場銷售量將進入策略市場，其中包括每天25億立方英尺直接輸送至不斷成長的液化天然氣走廊。Expand 擁有極具吸引力的關聯投資組合、同行領先的回報計劃和穩健的財務基礎，其強大的組合在天然氣生產商中獨樹一幟。今天的市場為我們公司提供了一個獨特的機會，我們期待在未來一年為股東擴大機會。接線員，我們現在來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Portillo, TPH.

（操作員指示）Matt Portillo，TPH。

Just a quick question. slide 9, very helpful laying out your thoughts on maximizing free cash flow at mid-cycle pricing. Just curious, maybe if you could speak to that slide? And specifically, if we're in kind of a $3.50 to $4 world, should we be thinking about kind of your productive capacity once you get to the 7.5 Bcf a day in 2026 to hold around 7.5 Bs? Or do you think you could continue to see growth from that point forward?

這只是一個簡單的問題。第 9 張投影片非常有幫助，它闡述了您關於在周期中期定價時最大化自由現金流的想法。只是好奇，您能不能針對那張投影片講講？具體來說，如果我們處在一個 3.50 美元到 4 美元的世界裡，我們是否應該考慮，一旦 2026 年達到每天 75 億立方英尺的生產能力，就能容納大約 75 億立方英尺的天然氣？或者您認為從那時起您可以繼續看到增長？

Yes, I'm really glad you asked about this slide to start off with, Matt. This is an important way for us to communicate how we think about our capital allocation for this year and over time. We all talk a lot about the right way to set up our business. And we thought this slide did a good job of laying out our thought process.

是的，我很高興你首先詢問這張幻燈片，馬特。這是我們傳達對今年及未來資本配置的看法的重要方式。我們都談論了很多有關如何正確開展業務的問題。我們認為這張投影片很好地闡述了我們的思考過程。

We believe that it starts with a view of the macro. And so we'll continue to have a View of the fundamentals and let that underpin how we think about allocating our capital. And for us, that means that we're going to always have a rolling forward two to three year assessment of where the market is and what that means for mid-cycle prices. And you're right to point out that right now, we're pegging that at $3.50 to $4 per Mcf, Henry Hub.

我們認為，這始於宏觀視角。因此，我們將繼續關注基本面，並以此為基礎來思考如何分配資本。對我們來說，這意味著我們將始終對市場現狀及其對中期價格的影響進行未來兩到三年的滾動評估。您指出得對，目前我們將其價格定為每千立方英尺 3.50 至 4 美元，亨利港。

And so the table below simply lays out a look at the heat map is designed around cash flow generation, free cash flow and looking at various levels of production relative to various levels of price, where is your business optimized? It's pretty easy for any of us to think about in a stronger market, growing volumes.

因此，下表簡單地列出了熱圖，該熱圖是圍繞現金流生成、自由現金流設計的，並查看了相對於不同價格水平的不同生產水平，您的業務在哪些方面進行了優化？對於我們任何人來說，在一個更強勁的市場中考慮不斷增長的交易量都是相當容易的事情。

That always feels good. But there's certainly an optimal level of production for a business given the underlying macro. And I think this helps to highlight how we view that there can be levels of production that are too high for a given price and there can be levels of production that are too low.

那感覺總是很好。但考慮到宏觀經濟因素，企業肯定存在一個最佳生產水準。我認為這有助於強調我們的觀點，即對於給定的價格來說，生產水平可能過高，而生產水平也可能過低。

And so at $3.50 to $4, you can see that we sit in a pretty good place at 7.5 Bcf a day. What we also like about this slide is that we're giving you some parameters around which we would have to underwrite a longer-term view of the macro in order to raise that level of targeted production.

因此，在 3.50 美元到 4 美元的匯率下，您可以看到我們處於相當不錯的水平，每天產量為 75 億立方英尺。我們也喜歡這張投影片的一點是，我們為您提供了一些參數，我們必須圍繞這些參數來承保宏觀的長期觀點，以提高目標生產水準。

And I say targeted and we say mid-cycle and all of those things because there's plenty of volatility that could show up in the short term that would continue to cause us to do things like we did in 2024, curtail volumes, curtail activity. There might be times where you want to accelerate capacity that's otherwise on the sideline, given a short-term event.

我之所以說有針對性，說是中期週期等等，是因為短期內可能會出現很多波動，這些波動會繼續導致我們採取像 2024 年那樣的措施，減少交易量，減少活動。考慮到短期事件，有時您可能希望加速原本處於邊緣的容量。

But when we think about mid-cycle activity, we think about this level of production relative to this price that we're underwriting. So right now, $3.50 to $4, 7.5 Bcf a day of production. I think it's pretty interesting to note that from an overall market standpoint, we are underwriting a level of price that is below where the '25 and '26 strip is today.

但是當我們考慮中期活動時，我們會考慮相對於我們所承保的價格的生產水準。所以現在，每天的產量為 3.50 到 4 美元，7.5 億立方英尺。我認為值得注意的是，從整體市場角度來看，我們承保的價格水準低於目前 25 年和 26 年的價格水準。

We do that with the recognition that, one, we don't mind being just a bit on the conservative side and underwriting price. Two, we do think a lot about how this will evolve over time. And we know that when prices as they are today are above the marginal breakevens of the industry. Supply will ultimately show up and compete.

我們這樣做是基於這樣的認知：第一，我們不介意稍微保守一點並承保價格。第二，我們確實對這現象隨著時間的推移將如何發展進行了許多思考。我們知道，當價格達到目前水準時，其價格已經高於該行業的邊際損益平衡點。供應最終會出現並進行競爭。

And that competing supply, as we go out into '27, '28, '29 is increasingly going to be not just domestic supply, but international supply. We've talked for a while about how in the second half of this decade, there will be more LNG capacity that comes online around the world that will compete directly with U.S. Gulf Coast capacity. And so we think it's appropriate to take this multiyear view of the market. And again, we see $3.50 to $4 is a pretty reasonable price to underwrite.

隨著我們進入 27、28、29 年，競爭供應將不僅來自國內供應，還來自國際供應。我們曾討論過，在未來五年內，全球將有更多的液化天然氣產能上線，直接與美國墨西哥灣沿岸的產能競爭。因此，我們認為對市場採取這種多年視角是合適的。我們再次看到，3.50 美元到 4 美元是一個相當合理的承保價格。

So all of that informs how we think about our business today, it thinks about -- what helps us to think about what the optimal level of production and CapEx is that then drives the optimal level of cash flow. I would also just point out that we're giving you a lot of information on this slide, including the right-hand column of the matrix, which tells you the amount of maintenance capital that would be required for each of these levels of production.

因此，所有這些都告訴我們如何看待我們今天的業務，它思考——什麼有助於我們思考最佳生產和資本支出水平是什麼，從而推動最佳現金流水平。我還要指出的是，我們在這張投影片上為您提供了大量信息，包括矩陣的右側列，它告訴您每個生產水平所需的維護資本金額。

Obviously, there's a lot of assumptions embedded into a chart like this. And those assumptions would have to be revisited over time. We're using our current assumptions of well cost. We're using our current assumptions of well productivity. Our team is pretty focused on improving our capital efficiency around both halves of that equation every day. And so we'll continue to refresh our thoughts around this. But we think this is a pretty good framework.

顯然，這樣的圖表中包含了許多假設。隨著時間的推移，這些假設必須被重新審視。我們正在使用目前的油井成本假設。我們正在使用目前對油井生產力的假設。我們的團隊每天都非常專注於提高該等式兩半的資本效率。因此，我們將繼續更新對此的想法。但我們認為這是一個非常好的框架。

Perfect. And then maybe just a follow-up. You mentioned LNG. I was just curious if you can maybe touch on your updated thoughts on the marketing strategy? I know it's a diversification for you all. And there's obviously some puts and takes and views on global incremental supply versus demand over the next few years. So just curious, how you guys are thinking about the LNG market and your strategy moving forward?

完美的。然後也許只是後續行動。您提到了液化天然氣。我只是好奇，您是否可以談談您對行銷策略的最新想法？我知道這對你們所有人來說都是一種多樣化。顯然，人們對未來幾年全球增量供應與需求存在一些看法。所以只是好奇，你們如何看待液化天然氣市場以及未來的策略？

Yes. Another great question. So again, we're excited about what's happening with the incremental LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast and how we're positioned relative to that. We think we are uniquely positioned to that, one, just given the scale of production that we have proximate to those assets in the Haynesville, but then also, we have a really nice transportation portfolio that allows us to move 2.5 Bcf a day by the end of this year to Gillis.

是的。又一個好問題。因此，我們再次對墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣出口能力的增加以及我們的定位感到興奮。我們認為我們在這方面具有獨特的優勢，首先，考慮到我們在海恩斯維爾資產附近的生產規模，其次，我們擁有非常好的運輸組合，可以讓我們在今年年底前每天向吉利斯運送 25 億立方英尺天然氣。

We moved another two Bcf a day over towards Perryville, which then can flow south towards the Eastern facilities like [Plaquemines]. And we have a lot of connectivity to these projects. We have a great relationship with a lot of the liquefiers themselves as well as the offtakers, and we have regular communication with all of them about what their needs are and how we should think about being prepared to supply gas.

我們每天向佩里維爾輸送 20 億立方英尺的天然氣，然後這些天然氣可以向南流向東部的設施，例如[普拉克明]。我們與這些項目有著許多的連結。我們與許多液化天然氣生產商以及承購商都保持著良好的關係，我們定期與他們溝通，了解他們的需求以及我們應該如何做好天然氣供應的準備。

So we really like our position. As you know, we have announced on supply agreement going through the [Delphin] facility. And we think there's more that we can do around LNG in the future. But I would say we're really focused on ensuring that as we take on any incremental LNG projects, we're thinking hard about how we can do a couple of things.

所以我們真的很喜歡我們的立場。如您所知，我們已經宣布透過 [Delphin] 工廠達成供應協議。我們認為未來我們可以在液化天然氣領域做更多的事情。但我想說，我們真正關注的是確保在承擔任何增量液化天然氣項目時，我們都在認真思考如何做幾件事。

One, ensure that it provides a diversified revenue source for us, connecting us to markets that we wouldn't otherwise be connected to that have diverse and different characteristics than Henry Hub. We think that's important. And then exposing us to revenue opportunities that, again, help to generate higher levels of cash flow through cycles for our business.

第一，確保它為我們提供多樣化的收入來源，將我們與亨利港以外的、多樣化和不同特徵的市場聯繫起來。我們認為這很重要。然後向我們展示收入機會，再次幫助我們在業務週期中產生更高水準的現金流。

I think as we think about our business today, we are in the Haynesville, which is a really important geographic diversity for us, being proximate to markets and being able to grow. And we need to show higher revenue to prove out the value of that geographic diversification.

我認為，當我們考慮今天的業務時，我們位於海恩斯維爾，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的地理多樣性，靠近市場並且能夠發展。我們需要展示更高的收入來證明地理多樣化的價值。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Nick, I've got 2, if I may. I guess the synergy number, we're all kind of watching that evolve a little quicker than you had originally planned. But if I go back to when you announced the deal back in January of last year, you put a kind of a two-year time line on building a marketing business, and you obviously made a very high profile higher here recently.

尼克，如果可以的話，我有 2 個。我想，我們都在觀察協同效應數字，它的發展速度比你最初規劃的還要快一些。但如果回顧去年 1 月您宣布這筆交易的時候，您為建立行銷業務設定了兩年的時間表，而且您最近顯然在這裡做出了非常高的姿態。

So I just wondered if you could give us a quick refresh on what you think the timing looks like now to achieve what you think is possible and maybe quantify what that number looks like, again, 2.5 Bcf a year, more or less. What's the -- is that $0.10 number? Is that $0.20 number? What's the ambition? Because obviously, I don't think that's in a lot of people's numbers at this point. That's my first one. I've got a quick follow-up, please.

所以我只是想知道您是否可以快速地向我們介紹一下，您認為現在實現可能目標的時機是什麼時候，並且可以量化這個數字，還是每年 25 億立方英尺左右。那是什麼——0.10 美元這個數字是嗎？那是 0.20 美元的數字嗎？你的野心是什麼？因為顯然，我認為目前很多人並不這麼認為。這是我的第一個。請盡快跟進。

Yes. Thanks, Doug. We're really excited about what is in front of us from a marketing perspective. And you're right, we have made a really important hire for our team. And we're looking forward to building out our business in a way that takes better advantage of the scale of production that we have as well as the transportation portfolio we have today.

是的。謝謝，道格。從行銷角度來看，我們對眼前的事物感到非常興奮。你說得對，我們為團隊聘請了一位非常重要的人員。我們期待以更好地利用我們現有的生產規模以及運輸組合的方式拓展我們的業務。

Traditionally, both Chesapeake and Southwestern marketed gas in a relatively close to wellhead fashion. We do have a lot of transportation, but we are, for the most part, selling gas to the nearest purchaser at the terminus of that transportation, whether that's off the gathering system or if it's further downstream. And we haven't engaged in a lot of optimization, which generally, larger companies do.

傳統上，切薩皮克和西南能源都以相對靠近井口的方式銷售天然氣。我們確實有很多運輸方式，但大多數情況下，我們都是將天然氣賣給運輸終點站最近的購買者，無論是在收集系統之外還是在更下游。我們並沒有進行大量的最佳化，而大公司通常會這樣做。

We think there's quite a bit of value in the domestic optimization of how we sell our gas. And we're looking forward to building out the processes and the capabilities to do that. We know how to do it. We have the talent to do it. We need to build systems processes and certainly need to build a risk framework to ensure that we do it properly. But in doing that, we think we can add pretty meaningful value to our business and increase our netbacks to our equity production, certainly by a few pennies on that domestic optimization alone.

我們認為，優化我們的天然氣國內銷售方式具有相當大的價值。我們期待建立實現這一目標的流程和能力。我們知道該怎麼做。我們有能力做到這一點。我們需要建立系統流程，當然也需要建立一個風險框架來確保我們正確地做到這一點。但透過這樣做，我們認為我們可以為我們的業務增加相當有意義的價值，並增加我們的股權生產的淨回報，僅在國內優化方面就可以增加幾分錢。

And then the longer-term value opportunity is, of course, around new commercial relationships that could be more interesting. And those could be in the form of power deals, industrial deals, LNG deals, long-term buyers of gas that seek certainty of supply and potentially seek some certainty of cost.

當然，長期價值機會在於可能更有趣的新商業關係。這些交易可以是電力交易、工業交易、液化天然氣交易，也可以是尋求供應確定性和潛在成本確定性的天然氣長期買家。

And we think there's quite a bit of opportunity in a market that looks like it will increasingly have challenges of getting the right amount of gas to the right markets at the right time. And we think we're well positioned to help solve those challenges.

我們認為，市場中存在著相當多的機會，但看起來，在正確的時間向正確的市場提供正確數量的天然氣的挑戰將越來越大。我們認為我們有能力幫助解決這些挑戰。

So just to be clear, is that a $400 million annual business? Or is that stretching the -- you said the marketing model. I'm thinking $0.15.

所以需要明確一下，這是一項每年 4 億美元的業務嗎？或者這是在延伸——您說的是行銷模式。我認為是 0.15 美元。

I think we're going to hold off on giving you an exact number today, Doug. We're going to continue to build out this business plan. We're going to hold off on giving the exact number today, but we think it's certainly meaningful. And we're pretty excited about what's in front of us.

道格，我想我們今天不會給你一個確切的數字。我們將繼續制定這項商業計劃。我們今天不會給出確切的數字，但我們認為這個數字肯定很有意義。我們對即將發生的事情感到非常興奮。

Got it. So my follow-up is you've kind of certainly slipped into the presentation, 20 years plus of inventory. And I think you used to have the Southwestern, the Chesapeake standalone saying, we've got a 15-year backlog. I think -- when you think about -- we're telling you, you can hold this at $3 billion of capital, 7.5 Bcf a day.

知道了。因此，我的後續問題是，您肯定已經進入了演示階段，涉及了 20 多年的庫存。我認為西南能源公司和切薩皮克能源公司曾經說過，我們有 15 年的積壓訂單。我認為——當你考慮——我們告訴你，你可以用 30 億美元的資本、每天 75 億立方英尺的產量來維持這一目標。

It seems you're making life pretty simple for everybody to kind of lay out what the value proposition is. My question is, what commingling Bossier, Haynesville Upper, Lower Marcellus, what's extending the inventory? What is the relative economics look like of the portfolio today versus what you were seeing before?

看起來你讓每個人的生活都變得非常簡單，可以大致闡明價值主張是什麼。我的問題是，博西爾、海恩斯維爾上游和馬塞勒斯下游的混合會擴大庫存嗎？與您之前看到的相比，今天的投資組合的經濟狀況如何？

And -- because I was obviously an impression that Bossier and Haynesville had very different returns, but now they're both part of the story. So if you could help us understand that a little bit, if that 20 years is an apples-for-apples comparison, that would be great.

而且——因為我顯然覺得博西爾和海恩斯維爾的回報非常不同，但現在它們都是故事的一部分。因此，如果您能幫助我們稍微理解這一點，如果這 20 年是一個同類的比較，那就太好了。

Yes. Look, it's essentially the productive life of -- around the assets that we generate today. So yes, Bossier is in there, Upper Marcellus is in there. And we continue to derisk all aspects of those plays that have less producing wells than maybe the more traditional Haynesville zone or the Lower Marcellus zone.

是的。你看，這本質上是我們今天所創造的資產的生產壽命。是的，博西爾 (Bossier) 在那裡，上馬塞勒斯 (Upper Marcellus) 也在那裡。我們將繼續降低那些生產井數量比更傳統的 Haynesville 區或 Lower Marcellus 區更少的油田的各個方面的風險。

Our team has done some really, really good work over the last couple of years to add value to all of those locations. And every time we add value to those locations, more of those locations can turn green, so to speak, in our inventory counts and in our skyline charts.

在過去的幾年裡，我們的團隊做了一些非常非常好的工作，為所有這些地點增加了價值。每當我們增加這些地點的價值時，在我們的庫存數量和天際線圖表中，更多的地點就會變成綠色。

One of the things that's happening here, though, is that as we brought these two companies together, we think that we are ultimately going to be most efficient and most effective and leaning on the capital efficiency of our business. We'll run less rigs than each company was running on a stand-alone basis.

不過，這裡發生的事情之一是，當我們將這兩家公司合併時，我們認為我們最終將變得最有效率、最有效，並依靠我們業務的資本效率。我們運行的鑽機數量將比每家公司單獨運行的數量要少。

And so the life extends, the number of years of development extends partially just because of that. But we're definitely very focused on continuing to turn more and more sticks within our acreage green, which allows us to add more adjacent acreage around our plays.

因此，壽命延長，發展年資也因此而延長。但我們絕對非常專注於繼續在我們的綠地範圍內種植越來越多的樹木，這使我們能夠在我們的場地周圍增加更多相鄰的綠地。

Scott Hanold, RBC.

斯科特·漢諾德（RBC）。

Let's stick on that same topic, if we could. And specifically with the Upper Marcellus and Bossier, can you talk about how -- what percentage of that is in the activity over the next couple of years? And just give us a sense of the relative economics of those zones comparatively. And are you seeing the ability to kind of what things are you seeing that can maybe improve those economics and you get closer to sort of the Haynesville Lower Marcellus?

如果可以的話，我們就繼續討論這個話題吧。特別是對於上馬塞勒斯和博西爾，您能否談談其中有多少比例將在未來幾年內發揮作用？請讓我們相對了解一下這些區域的相對經濟狀況。您是否看到了哪些可能改善經濟狀況並更接近海恩斯維爾下馬塞勒斯的能力？

Scott, this is Josh. First on the split, we do provide a slide in the deck on slide 35 that provides the breakdown for the number of TILs. But you'll notice in the Haynesville, we are going to be slightly heavier weighted towards the Haynesville wells. So it's probably closer to 60% to 65%. And in the Northeast with the Upper and Lower, it's probably closer to maybe 45% Lower and the rest will be Upper.

斯科特，這是喬希。首先，關於分割，我們在第 35 張投影片中提供了一張投影片，其中提供了 TIL 數量的細分。但您會注意到，在海恩斯維爾，我們將更加重視海恩斯維爾油井。所以可能更接近 60% 到 65%。而在東北地區，有上河谷和下河谷，下河谷可能接近 45%，其餘為上河谷。

And so on the comparative economics, one of the things I would just say, and I'll maybe start with the Haynesville specifically, both reservoirs offer tremendous potential from a return standpoint. And we like the productivity that we see in each the Bossier tends to be just a little bit more expensive on the completion side, but also recognize it's shallower. So drilling costs are a little bit less. We find productivity to be fantastic across both, I would say, somewhat equitable.

因此，就比較經濟學而言，我想說的一件事，我可能會先從海恩斯維爾水庫開始，從回報的角度來看，這兩個水庫都具有巨大的潛力。我們喜歡我們看到的生產力，Bossier 在完井方面往往稍微貴一點，但也認識到它更淺。因此鑽井成本會稍微低一些。我們發現，兩者的生產力都非常高，我想說，這在某種程度上是公平的。

The Upper and the Lower, we've talked about for some time, the fact that we do see lower productivity on a per foot basis in the Upper. But the ways we find to enhance the economics of that, which is really the ultimate goal, is by extending lateral lengths. And because it's less developed, we have opportunities to drill longer laterals, which we've been doing year-over-year. We've also really been investing in analytics and looking opportunities to enhance the way at which we complete these wells.

我們已經討論了一段時間的上層和下層，事實上我們確實看到上層每英尺的生產率較低。但我們發現提高其經濟效益的方法，也就是最終目標，是透過延長橫向長度。而且由於開發程度較低，我們有機會鑽更長的水平井，我們每年都在這樣做。我們也一直在投資分析並尋找機會來改善我們完成這些油井的方式。

And so the combination, the longer laterals, the enhanced completion designs, we've talked about hybrid wells in the past as another mechanism at which we could really boost up the profitability of the upper wells where we combine, let's say, a 10,000-foot section of upper with 5,000 feet of lower reservoir. That all helps to normalize our returns across the Marcellus play.

因此，我們過去曾討論過組合、更長的水平井、增強的完井設計等混合井，作為另一種機制，我們可以真正提高上部井的盈利能力，比如說，將 10,000 英尺的上部油藏與 5,000 英尺的下部油藏結合起來。這一切都有助於使我們在 Marcellus 遊戲中的回報正常化。

Appreciate the context. And as my follow-up, just talking about the productive capacity increase that you have planned into 2026. And -- to me, it was interesting on -- I guess you're calling up productive capacity versus "just regular growth." So that does -- correct me if I'm wrong, tell -- indicates to us that there's some optionality if the market is not there.

欣賞上下文。作為我的後續問題，我只是談論您計劃在 2026 年的生產能力增長。對我來說，這很有趣——我想你指的是生產能力而不是「常規成長」。所以這確實——如果我錯了請糾正我，告訴我們——如果市場不存在，就會存在一些可選性。

But can you give us some sense of, as you get into the back half of '25 -- obviously, it's a very sensitive time coming into the winter every year with the gas market. If you start building this productive capacity in these wells to bring on -- and let's say, the winter doesn't pan out. What happens in 2026 now that you've already spent those $300 million of extra capital? What do you do?

但是，您能否為我們介紹一下，隨著 2025 年下半年的到來——顯然，每年冬季對於天然氣市場來說都是一個非常敏感的時期。如果你開始在這些油井中建立這種生產能力，那麼假設冬天沒有成功。既然您已經花掉了這 3 億美元的額外資本，那麼 2026 年會發生什麼事？你做什麼工作？

Sorry, my mute didn't come off. I'm going to start over. Yes, we're really pleased with the flexibility we exhibited in our business in 2024, and we think it would set up really similarly. So we're going to build this productive capacity coming into the end of this year, it will be ready to be turned in line in 2026. And if the market is not there, then it would we would likely have a response to that that would be some combination of either holding back the turn-in lines or curtailing volumes to alleviate pressure on the market.

抱歉，我的靜音功能沒有關閉。我要重新開始。是的，我們對 2024 年業務所展現的靈活性感到非常滿意，我們認為它的設置會非常相似。因此，我們將在今年年底前建成這項生產能力，並準備在 2026 年投入使用。如果市場不存在，那麼我們可能會採取某種應對措施，要麼抑制上車線路，要麼減少銷量，以減輕市場壓力。

But I would back up even further than that. And let's say that we see that as we come through this year, the macro conditions change in some unforeseen way and the market doesn't look as strong in '26 or '27, then we'll change our capital allocation as well. We've proven, I think, several times over, the flexibility we have there and the willingness to try and be responsive and in front of market conditions to be efficient with our capital relative to where we are in the cycle.

但我還會進一步支持這一點。假設我們發現，隨著今年的到來，宏觀環境發生了一些不可預見的變化，市場在 26 年或 27 年看起來不那麼強勁，那麼我們也會改變我們的資本配置。我認為，我們已經多次證明了我們的靈活性，以及​​我們願意嘗試並響應市場狀況，以便根據我們所處的周期位置高效地利用我們的資本。

So we maintain a ton of flexibility in our business. And this is what we think is the right planning step for today, and we're very prepared for both increasing capital or decreasing capital as conditions warrant.

因此我們的業務保持了極大的靈活性。我們認為這是今天的正確規劃步驟，並且我們已做好根據情況增加資本或減少資本的準備。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴文麥克德莫特。

So I wanted to dive in first on the 2025 activity in a little bit more detail, I definitely agree with the constructive outlook for gas prices this year. Looking back about a month ago, we were flirting with $2 on Henry Hub.

因此，我想先更詳細地探討一下 2025 年的活動，我絕對同意今年天然氣價格的建設性前景。回想大約一個月前，我們在亨利港的價格接近 2 美元。

So I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about the decision process to pull forward the deferred TILs and then also give a little bit more color on the cadence of that productive capacity throughout this year? I know you have the 1Q guide and the full year number, but how are you thinking about the volume trajectory as we move through 2025 for the business?

所以我想知道您是否可以再多談一下提前延期 TIL 的決策過程，然後再多介紹一下今年全年生產能力的節奏？我知道您有第一季指南和全年數據，但您如何看待 2025 年業務的銷售趨勢？

Yes. Good questions, Devin. So we're again, I want to go back to talking about how we think about the macro and thinking about a two to three-year look of underwriting a price range here, and we've landed at $3.50 to $4. There's a lot that goes into that. And ultimately, you're thinking about the trajectory of supply and demand and all of the features of the market that will impact supply and demand over the next couple of years.

是的。好問題，德文。因此，我們再次，我想回到談論我們如何看待宏觀，並考慮兩到三年的承保價格範圍，我們已經確定了 3.50 美元到 4 美元。這其中涉及很多內容。最終，您將考慮供需的軌跡以及未來幾年影響供需的所有市場特徵。

And so on the supply side, you're certainly thinking about how many rigs are running, how many wells are being completed, the productivity of those wells, how many pipes are coming online, including from associated gas areas like the Permian and building out a pretty good view of what the supply to the market looks like.

因此，在供應方面，你肯定會考慮有多少鑽井平台正在運行，有多少油井正在完工，這些油井的產量是多少，有多少管道正在上線，包括來自二疊紀等伴生氣區的管道，以及如何很好地了解市場供應狀況。

On the demand side, we're going to pay a lot of attention to the trends of power generation, and what fuels power generation growth is relying on trends of industrial demand. And then certainly, what we see now as the big driver is the increase in LNG export capacity, which requires a view not just of what that -- of the aggregate capacity, but also a view of the likely utilization of that capacity. Which, again, we've talked about initially, we think is going to be very, very high, and then over the next few years, would potentially begin to run at less than 100% capacity as more and more comes online.

在需求方面，我們會非常關注發電的趨勢，而發電的成長依賴工業需求的趨勢。當然，我們現在看到的最大驅動力是液化天然氣出口能力的增加，這不僅需要考慮總產能，還需要考慮該產能的可能利用率。再次強調，我們最初已經討論過，我們認為這個比例將會非常非常高，然後在接下來的幾年裡，隨著越來越多的專案上線，其運行容量可能會開始低於 100%。

So all of that informs this longer-term view. One of the things that you do pay attention to as a part of all of this analysis is where storage is. So we've had this constructive view on the longer term. And then as we got through this winter, you see that it's been very cold, of course, and storage has drawn down a good bit, which just accelerates the timing at which the market is seeking incremental supply so that storage doesn't run too low.

所有這些都為這一長期觀點提供了依據。在進行所有這些分析時，您需要關注的事情之一就是儲存的位置。因此，我們對長期發展抱持這種建設性的看法。然後，當我們度過這個冬天時，你會發現天氣非常寒冷，當然，存儲量已經下降了不少，這只是加速了市場尋求增量供應的時間，以使存儲量不會太低。

I think the multiyear look hasn't really changed much for us, and all that's changed is that the starting point at which the market is looking for more supply has come to us a little bit sooner as a result of their being a cold winter. We think it's really important to maintain this view that is multiyear, multi-season so that we don't end up chasing a near-term event of price in the market. And then again, to make sure we have the flexibility in our business to continue to review those assumptions over time. I'll ask Josh to comment just on the trajectory of production this year and going into next, because we gave a lot of thought about that as we have the flexibility with our deferred TIL strategy.

我認為，對我們來說，多年的前景實際上並沒有太大的變化，唯一的變化是，由於今年冬天很冷，市場尋求更多供應的起點來得更快一些。我們認為保持這種多年、多季節的觀點非常重要，這樣我們就不會最終追逐市場上的短期價格事件。然後再次確保我們的業務具有靈活性，以便隨著時間的推移繼續審查這些假設。我會請喬希對今年和明年的生產軌跡發表評論，因為我們對此進行了大量的思考，因為我們的延期 TIL 策略具有靈活性。

Yes. Devin, we absolutely started to see some strengthening fundamentals as we were exiting the year. And so we did start to bring online some of the deferred TILs at the back end of December. In fact, across the fourth quarter, we brought on about 40 wells, and roughly 25 of those were technically deferred TILs.

是的。德文，在即將結束這一年之際，我們確實開始看到一些基本面的加強。因此，我們確實在 12 月底開始上線一些延期的 TIL。事實上，在第四季度，我們共開採了大約 40 口油井，其中大約 25 口從技術上講是延長的 TIL。

And what you have to just remember in this is what we've been able to accomplish with just -- let's just say, those 25 wells, those wells could have come online in a $2 gas price environment. But instead, we were able to bring them on into a very strong environment with roughly $4 gas. So we feel really good about that decision.

你們要記住的是，我們僅憑這一點就能取得成就——假設這 25 口井可以在 2 美元的天然氣價格環境下投產。但相反，我們能夠以大約 4 美元的汽油價格將它們帶入非常強大的環境。所以我們對這個決定感到非常滿意。

Then as we come into the first quarter, and again, fundamentals remain strong. We talked about weather. We've seen relatively strong LNG feed gas pools as well, which, again, we think is helping to tighten storage. And so across the first quarter, we're anticipating bringing on roughly 90 wells into the markets.

當我們進入第一季時，基本面依然強勁。我們談論了天氣。我們也看到了相對強勁的液化天然氣原料氣池，我們認為這有助於收緊儲存。因此，我們預計第一季將有大約 90 口油井進入市場。

And just to give you a little bit of perspective on what that means from a trajectory standpoint, of course, we've guided to a [675] number for Q1. But we expect to grow from the end of December, where our production was just over 6.4 Bcf a day. We expect to exit March around seven Bcf a day. And so when you talk about kind of short cycle market response to production, that's really what we've created here.

當然，為了讓您從軌蹟的角度稍微了解一下這意味著什麼，我們已經將第一季的數字預期為 [675]。但我們預計從12月底開始產量將會成長，目前我們的每日產量剛超過64億立方英尺。我們預計 3 月每天的產量約為 70 億立方英尺。因此，當您談論對生產的短週期市場反應時，這實際上就是我們在這裡創造的。

And so with the deployment of our deferred TILs, which we expect to be extinguished effectively by the first half of this year, we expect to be kind of up on plane between, say, seven and 7.1 Bcf a day heading into the second quarter. And we'd expect to maintain that type of production as we exit the year, which then, of course, positions us to be able to benefit from the productive capacity that will now build on this up cycle as we look to exit 2025.

因此，隨著我們延長 TIL 的部署，我們預計它將在今年上半年有效淘汰，我們預計到第二季度，TIL 的日產量將達到 70 至 71 億立方英尺之間。我們預計在今年年底前將保持這種生產水平，這當然使我們能夠從現在在這個上升週期中建立的生產能力中受益，因為我們期待在 2025 年年底前實現這一目標。

Got it. That's really helpful. And my follow-up is on that productive capacity. slide 8 has the building blocks of capital and also some breakdown of where that incremental $300 million of spending would go. And I think it's notable that it's actually split across Appalachia and the Haynesville, you have some going to each of your core assets.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。我的後續關注點是生產能力。第 8 張投影片介紹了資本的組成要素，以及新增的 3 億美元支出的去向。我認為值得注意的是，它實際上是分佈在阿巴拉契亞山脈和海恩斯維爾的，其中一部分用於各自的核心資產。

So I was wondering if you could just talk a bit more about how you think about allocating growth capital across the different assets in your portfolio? And maybe as part of that, if you could just address the takeaway situation in Northeast Pennsylvania and how much room there actually is to boost volumes there?

所以我想知道您是否可以再多談談您如何考慮在您的投資組合中的不同資產之間分配成長資本？也許作為其中的一部分，您能否談談賓夕法尼亞州東北部的外賣情況以及那裡實際上有多少增長空間？

Yes. So we think about allocating capital across these assets, just as you alluded to in your question. Our ability to grow is primarily in the Haynesville. In Appalachia, the capital that's coming in there is really in recognition of what the existing capacity is and bringing production up to those capacity levels. We know where we've been able to produce successfully in the past, and we're not going to attempt to go beyond that. So the growth capital that you really see is more about the Haynesville.

是的。因此，我們考慮在這些資產之間分配資本，就像您在問題中提到的那樣。我們的成長能力主要在海恩斯維爾。在阿巴拉契亞，流入的資本實際上是為了確認現有產能，並將生產提升到這些產能水準。我們知道過去我們在哪裡能夠成功生產，我們不會試圖超越這一點。因此，您真正看到的成長資本與海恩斯維爾有關。

I just want to remind everybody that we do sit right adjacent to the LNG growth corridor and have 2.5 Bcf a day by the end of this year of capacity to deliver to Gillis. So as you think about where that LNG gas is going to come from, it's going to primarily be sourced from Gillis.

我只是想提醒大家，我們確實位於液化天然氣成長走廊的旁邊，到今年年底，每天有 25 億立方英尺的產能可以輸送到吉利斯。因此，當您考慮液化天然氣的來源時，您會發現它主要來自吉利斯。

We have the [LEAP] pipeline and the NG3 pipeline and in aggregate, that's 2.5 Bcf a day that gets delivered right to the source of growing demand. And so the incremental volumes that we really think about here as we increase our volume profile into 2026 are focused on meeting that growing demand. This is not delivering volumes into a static environment.

我們擁有 [LEAP] 管道和 NG3 管道，總計每天可向不斷增長的需求源頭輸送 25 億立方英尺天然氣。因此，當我們將產量提高到 2026 年時，我們真正考慮的增量產量主要是為了滿足不斷增長的需求。這並不是將磁碟區傳送到靜態環境中。

Neil Mehta, GS.

Neil Mehta，GS。

It's Neil Mehta here. Can you hear me okay?

我是尼爾·梅塔。你聽見我說話嗎？

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

All right, Nick. I just wanted to spend some time just talking about return of capital and capital allocation and those three tranches that you outlined in the deck and your objective here in 2025 as you transition from delevering to focusing potentially on shrinking your share count too?

好的，尼克。我只是想花一些時間談論資本回報和資本配置以及您在簡報中概述的三個部分，以及您在 2025 年從去槓桿過渡到可能也專注於減少股票數量時的目標？

Sure. We're pretty happy with the cash flow profile that's in front of us for the next couple of years. One, we've prioritized that pay down. And you can see that really clearly in that waterfall. We've put in place a $500 million debt pay down goal for the year. That's on top of the fact that we retired the outstanding revolving credit facility that was Southwestern's at the close. We've paid down $389 million of bonds that were maturing in January. And then we've done another refinancing, of course, with our first investment-grade issuance that allowed us to push out some maturities.

當然。我們對未來幾年的現金流狀況非常滿意。首先，我們優先考慮償還這筆款項。你可以在瀑布中清楚地看到這一點。我們制定了今年償還 5 億美元債務的目標。除此之外，我們還在收盤時解除了西南航空未償還的循環信貸額度。我們已經償還了 1 月到期的 3.89 億美元債券。當然，我們隨後進行了另一次再融資，首次發行投資等級債券，這使我們能夠延長一些債券的到期日。

So we have a really good runway in front of us to retire debt and a lot of cash flow to do it. So that $500 million out of our free cash flow will flow towards debt paydown as well as we have a little bit of incremental proceeds from the Eagle Ford sales that will come to us in deferred proceeds in 2025, that will go towards debt paydown as well.

因此，我們面前有非常好的跑道來償還債務，並且有大量的現金流來實現這一目標。因此，我們自由現金流中的 5 億美元將用於償還債務，同時我們從 Eagle Ford 銷售中獲得少量增量收益，這些收益將在 2025 年以遞延收益的形式歸還給我們，這些收益也將用於償還債務。

So we're taking a pretty good swipe at the balance sheet. We're going to end the year with less than $4.5 billion of net debt based on the recent strip. So we feel pretty good about that. That will obviously be well under 1 times EBITDA with prices around where they are. I would also remind you that that $500 million is a target that we'll set each year. So next year, we will have another debt paydown target.

因此，我們對資產負債表進行了相當嚴厲的打擊。根據最近的數據，我們今年的淨債務將低於 45 億美元。所以我們對此感覺很好。顯然，這將遠低於 EBITDA 的 1 倍，因為價格與當前水準相近。我還要提醒大家，5 億美元是我們每年設定的目標。因此明年我們將有另一個債務償還目標。

And what we've attempted to do with this framework is allow for a good balance of ensuring that our balance sheet stays very, very strong. It's, as you know, with the history of our company and the way we've been able to bring assets into the portfolio that have been very accretive to our overall returns profile, we believe you need to have a very strong balance sheet to do that.

我們嘗試透過這個框架實現良好的平衡，確保我們的資產負債表保持非常非常強勁。如您所知，鑑於我們公司的歷史以及我們將資產納入投資組合的方式，這些資產對我們的整體回報狀況產生了很大的增值作用，我們認為您需要擁有非常強大的資產負債表才能做到這一點。

So we're going to continue to have a really strong balance sheet. You need a strong balance sheet to allocate your capital efficiency and maintain the flexibility to allow production to decrease and increase as we've done over the last year. And that balance sheet strength is such an important part of how we think about our competitive position in the market that it will stay front of mind for us and be protected.

因此，我們將繼續擁有強勁的資產負債表。您需要一份強大的資產負債表來分配您的資本效率並保持靈活性，以允許產量減少和增加，就像我們去年所做的那樣。資產負債表實力是我們思考市場競爭地位的重要組成部分，因此我們會始終將資產負債表實力放在首位並加以保護。

And then beyond that, though, we're going to generate a lot of excess free cash flow. And we think that that needs to be returned to shareholders in a pretty significant proportion. So that remaining tranche then, we have the flexibility to return to shareholders, 75% of it either in the form of buybacks or variable dividends.

除此之外，我們還將產生大量的超額自由現金流。我們認為，其中相當大一部分需要返還給股東。因此，對於剩餘的部分，我們可以靈活地將其中的 75% 以回購或浮動股息的形式返還給股東。

We will use that flexibility to be thoughtful about the most efficient way to do that for shareholders. Over the last couple of years, you've seen us use both. And I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to use both.

我們將利用這種靈活性來仔細考慮為股東實現這一目標的最有效方法。在過去的幾年中，您已經看到我們使用了這兩種方法。如果我們繼續使用這兩種方法，我不會感到驚訝。

Yes. Nick, and that kind of brings us to the follow-up, which is you guys have done a great job of hedging the wedge or taking advantage of the constructive forward gas curve. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the hedging strategy on a go forward? Does hedge the wedge still makes sense?

是的。尼克，這就引出了我們的後續問題，那就是你們在對沖楔子或利用建設性遠期天然氣曲線方面做得很好。您能否談談您對未來的對沖策略有何看法？對沖楔子是否仍然有意義？

Or have you gotten to an optimal level at this point? And just how you're thinking about that part of risk management?

還是你現在已經達到最佳水準了？您如何看待風險管理的這一部分？

Yes. Our hedging strategy, we feel like has worked really well for us. We had a really nice offset to the low prices last year that supported our cash flow. And despite the fact that gas average for the year about $2.26, we ended the year with a nearly neutral free cash flow position that's really largely supported by our hedges.

是的。我們覺得我們的對沖策略確實非常有效。去年低價對我們產生了很好的抵銷作用，從而支撐了我們的現金流。儘管全年天然氣平均價格約為 2.26 美元，但我們年底的自由現金流狀況幾乎是中性的，這在很大程度上受到了對沖的支持。

In 2025, as prices have run quite a bit, are hedge losses are a fraction of what that gain was last year. And that's a function of the fact that we've hedged, we think, on a rolling basis that has really made sense so that we have exposure to the right prices in the market that we're setting the appropriate floors. And we've been able to use a fair amount of collars as we approached the start of 2025.

到 2025 年，由於價格已經上漲了不少，對沖損失只是去年收益的一小部分。這是因為我們進行了滾動避險，我們認為這確實很有意義，這樣我們就能接觸到市場上的正確價格，並設定適當的底價。隨著 2025 年的臨近，我們已經能夠使用相當數量的項圈。

We like the approach. We like having roughly 50% to 60% of the first year hedged and then less in the second year and continuing to lag into those hedges over time. We also would acknowledge that in recent weeks, as prices have been a lot stronger, we're not afraid to shift for near-term prices more towards swaps. You're elevating the floor of your locked-in price, and you're also willing to move to the higher end of your ranges of targeted levels of hedges.

我們喜歡這種方法。我們希望第一年對沖大約 50% 到 60%，第二年對沖較少，並隨著時間的推移繼續落後於這些對沖。我們也承認，最近幾週，由於價格大幅走強，我們並不擔心短期價格會更多地轉向掉期。您正在提高鎖定價格的底線，並且您也願意將對沖目標水準的範圍提高到更高水準。

We see prices in 2025 that, like I noted a few minutes ago, are well above the marginal breakevens in the industry. And when you see that, you want to hedge more, and you want to go ahead and lock in those prices. So that's what we'll continue to do.

正如我幾分鐘前提到的，我們看到 2025 年的價格將遠高於產業的邊際損益平衡點。當你看到這種情況時，你會想要進行更多對沖，並且想要繼續鎖定這些價格。所以我們會繼續這樣做。

John Freeman, Raymond James.

約翰‧弗里曼、雷蒙‧詹姆斯。

The first question I had is -- just following up on an earlier question. Josh, when you were kind of going over the accelerated pull forward on the deferred TILs, just to sort of level set kind of the model since I know that the plan is that, as you said, all the TILs basically get exhausted first half of the year, and I believe the plan assumes about 85% of the DUCs get bottom line this year as well. Where did the deferred TILs and the DUCs stand at year-end?

我的第一個問題是——只是跟進之前的一個問題。喬希，當您在討論延期 TIL 的加速推進時，只是為了對模型進行某種程度的調整，因為我知道計劃是，正如您所說，所有的 TIL 基本上都會在上半年用盡，我相信該計劃假設大約 85% 的 DUC 今年也會達到底線。遞延 TIL 和 DUC 年底的情況如何？

Yes. So because we started bringing on wells in the back end of the quarter, which was about 25 that's deferred TILs, that left us with about 55 to 60 deferred TILs at year-end and between 50 and 60 DUCs at year-end. And justslidecomment I would make on the DUCs is that we have assumed a somewhat ratable activation of the DUCs across the year. And of course, there's a capital amount that comes along with that.

是的。因此，由於我們在本季末開始開採油井，其中約有 25 個是遞延 TIL，因此我們在年底擁有約 55 至 60 個遞延 TIL，並在年底擁有 50 至 60 個 DUC。我對 DUC 的一點評論是，我們假設全年 DUC 的活化程度是可以按比例計算的。當然，這還需要一定的資本。

One of the things we really like about the plan is just to retain flexibility that we have. And we have this option to actually accelerate the completion of the DUCs that creates more flexibility in the year from a production standpoint while holding capital flat. And so though we'll have activated over all of our deferred TILs. We still feel like we've retained flexibility with the DUCs throughout the calendar year.

我們真正喜歡這個計劃的原因之一是它保留了我們原有的靈活性。我們有這個選擇，可以加速完成 DUC，從生產的角度來看，這可以在保持資本不變的同時，為今年創造更多的靈活性。因此，我們將啟動所有延期的 TIL。我們仍然覺得我們在整個日曆年中都保留了 DUC 的靈活性。

That's great. And my follow-up, when looking at that slide 9, it would appear that going from kind of 7.5 Bs a day to call it, 8-plus Bs a day, it looks like just trying to back into what you've got for the CapEx, that it doesn't look like there's like a material kind of increase that's needed on infrastructure spend. It looks like you'll can handle that without any big step change on that front. Is that the right read on that?

那太棒了。我的後續問題是，當你看第 9 張投影片時，你會發現，從每天 75 億盧比增加到每天 80 多億盧比，這看起來只是試圖回到資本支出的水平，而基礎設施支出似乎不需要大幅增加。看起來你不需要在這方面做任何重大的改變就能處理這個問題。這樣解讀正確嗎？

Yes, that is the right read. What you need to remember is just where both companies were operating prior to deal announcement at the end of 2023. And so we have adequate offtake, the infrastructure, both in the field and with the transport is capable. And so effectively with what we're doing right now, we're restoring volumes.

是的，這是正確的解讀。你需要記住的是，在 2023 年底宣布交易之前，兩家公司的營運情況如何。因此，我們擁有充足的承購量，現場和運輸方面的基礎設施都很完善。透過我們現在採取的有效措施，我們正在恢復產量。

And then the productive capacity that we'll build will essentially continue down a path to get us to a spot where we're just more fully utilizing the infrastructure that we have access to.

然後，我們建造的生產能力基本上將沿著一條道路繼續前進，使我們達到更充分利用我們可以使用的基礎設施的程度。

Paul Diamond, Citi.

花旗銀行的保羅戴蒙德 (Paul Diamond)。

Apologies, the line cut out there for a second. I just wanted to talk about slide 15. You guys talked about having made some good progress on the -- good progress on the drilling activity. I just wonder if require -- if there was there any opportunity there or the timing of such? Like I guess, how much meat is left on the bone there?

抱歉，電話暫時斷線了。我只是想談談第 15 張投影片。你們談到了鑽探活動取得了一些良好進展。我只是想知道是否需要——那裡是否有任何機會或這樣的時機？我猜，骨頭上還剩下多少肉？

Yes. We still feel like there's plenty of room to drive improvements. And this is -- this slide on slide 15, of course, is focused on the Haynesville. And I just -- I would say that we've been incredibly pleased with the progress that the team has made through our diligence process with the transaction.

是的。我們仍然覺得還有很大的進步空間。當然，第 15 張投影片的重點是 Haynesville。我只是——我想說，我們對團隊透過盡職調查過程在交易中取得的進展感到非常高興。

We had pretty clear understanding of what the gap was in terms of days. And we utilized the time of our integration planning really to break that down into wealth segments. And we've used that time, obviously, effectively to allow us to realize more than a 20% improvement in our footage per day and 20% improvement in cost just in the first quarter.

我們非常清楚天數方面的差距有多大。我們利用整合規劃的時間將其細分為財富各個部分。顯然，我們有效地利用了這段時間，僅在第一季就使我們的每日拍攝量提高了 20% 以上，成本降低了 20%。

And so to your question, we're going to continue to improve on this. And talking to the teams, we know there's additional opportunities. I'm seeing that even just flowing into the first quarter. So we feel really good about the trajectory that we're on.

對於您的問題，我們將繼續改進這一點。透過與團隊交談，我們知道還有其他機會。我看到它甚至剛剛進入第一季。因此，我們對目前的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

And then the thing that I would also just mention, again, we've focused this in on the Haynesville for this discussion. But we just drilled a 5.5-mile lateral up in West Virginia, and we did so with a single bit run in just over five days. And that type of progress that we see in an asset, that clearly has an opportunity to kind of lend itself into the other areas that ultimately translates into incremental synergies. So we definitely think there's meat on the bone and really, really excited about what we have in front of us.

然後我還要再提到，我們這次討論的重點是海恩斯維爾。但我們剛剛在西維吉尼亞州鑽了一個 5.5 英里長的水平井，而且我們只用了五天多的時間就用了一個鑽頭就完成了。我們在資產中看到的這種進步顯然有機會進入其他領域，最終轉化為漸進的協同效應。因此，我們確實認為這是有實質內容的，並且對我們面前的成果感到非常興奮。

Understood. And just one quick follow-up. Thinking about the rig adds in second half. How should we think about the timing and cadence? Or is that purely reactive? Or is there a plan for July 1 and then October 1? Just kind of how to think about the timing there?

明白了。還有一個快速的後續問題。考慮下半場的鑽孔機增加。我們該如何考慮時機和節奏？還是這純粹是被動反應？或有 7 月 1 日和 10 月 1 日的計劃嗎？只是如何考慮那裡的時間安排？

Yes, Paul, I'll lay that out for you. The [rig adds] are premised across the second half of the year. What we're looking at right now is that we'd add a couple of rigs in the third quarter. Those would be destined for the Haynesville and Northeast App. And then in the fourth quarter, we would expect to add a rig in Southwest App and then the ninth rig in the Haynesville.

是的，保羅，我會為你解釋清楚的。[rig 補充道] 是基於今年下半年的情況。我們現在考慮的是，我們將在第三季增加幾個鑽孔機。這些將運往 Haynesville 和 Northeast App。然後在第四季度，我們預計將在西南應用增加一台鑽機，然後在海恩斯維爾增加第九台鑽機。

Understood. Appreciate the clarity. I'll leave it there.

明白了。欣賞清晰度。我就把它留在那裡。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德、約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning, Nick, to you and Josh and the rest of the Expand team there. Nick, I wanted to ask a question about page 10. Really, this graph on the left side of the page. And my first reaction when I see this is, it reminds me of my son's high school trigonometry homework. It makes me think maybe whoever came up with this slide is looking at something similar recently.

早安，尼克，你和喬希以及 Expand 團隊的其他成員都好。尼克，我想問一個關於第 10 頁的問題。確實，這個圖表位於頁面左側。當我看到這個時，我的第一個反應是，它讓我想起了我兒子的高中三角學作業。這讓我想到，也許製作這張投影片的人最近正在研究類似的東西。

But I think what this is -- this is the -- this is trying to describe the dynamics around the baseline kind of scenario that you're outlining on page 9. And if that's the right interpretation, I look at this, and I think the message that you're trying to send is that you will be increasing CapEx when you're underproducing, presumably when prices are low and that you'll be kind of maximizing CapEx and starting to draw down when prices are higher. But I wonder if you could guide our interpretation of that -- this dynamic that you've laid out here?

但我認為這是——這是——這是試圖描述您在第 9 頁概述的基線情景的動態。如果這是正確的解釋，我看一下，我認為你想要傳達的訊息是，當你產量不足時，你會增加資本支出，大概是在價格低的時候，而當價格較高時，你會最大化資本支出並開始減少。但我想知道您是否可以指導我們對此進行解釋——您在這裡闡述的這種動態？

Yes. You're talking about our attempt to be countercyclical. And generally, I would agree with you. I would say that it's not going to be quite as simple as you just described. But generally, this is a look at how we would attempt to be responsive to market conditions in a way that is faster than the cycles of capital will typically allow you to be in this industry.

是的。您談到了我們試圖逆週期調節。整體來說，我同意你的觀點。我想說的是，事情不會像你剛才描述的那麼簡單。但總的來說，這是關於我們如何嘗試以比資本週期更快的方式對市場狀況做出反應，這種方式通常允許你進入這個行業。

If we go put capital to work in this industry today, it takes us a couple of years to bring production online and then earn a return on that production. From the point of what you make the decision until the time at which you have the return of capital in the bank from that decision, it's a couple of years. So what you really want is a business that's much more flexible in a market that has conditions to change much faster than that cycle of capital. And this is really meant to describe how we would achieve that.

如果我們今天向這個行業投入資金，我們需要幾年的時間才能投入生產，然後獲得生產回報。從你做出決定到銀行收回資本，需要幾年的時間。因此，你真正想要的是一家在市場條件變化速度遠快於資本週期變化速度的市場中更靈活的企業。這實際上是為了描述我們如何實現這一目標。

We are very willing to allow production to fall in the near term. And then as you bring production back to move above a targeted midpoint when prices are there to support that. And so what you should think about is you accelerate and decelerate capital if you want to move that middle dash line. But you move above and below that dash line based on the near-term conditions in the market.

我們非常願意允許產量在短期內下降。然後，當價格能夠支撐產量時，產量將恢復到目標中點以上。因此，如果您想移動中間的虛線，您應該考慮加速和減速資本。但是，根據市場近期狀況，您會在該虛線上下移動。

That is helpful, Nick. That adds to my understanding. And then one other thing, Nick, as a follow-up. Twice now, I think you've mentioned marginal breakeven for the industry. Can you share what you think that is and where Expand sits vis-a-vis the industry on that marginal breakeven?

這很有幫助，尼克。這加深了我的理解。然後還有一件事，尼克，作為後續。我認為您已經兩次提到了該行業的邊際盈虧平衡。您能否分享一下您的想法以及 Expand 在邊際盈虧平衡方面相對於行業的地位？

Sure. I mean, I think we can all calculate like a specific number in a supply model on what marginal breakeven is. Of course, everybody is going to look at it a little bit differently. So we think that number is -- I'm going to just call it loosely in the mid-3s. And so we think we sit probably on the lower end of that as a business because we have a huge amount of inventory at very, very low cost in the Marcellus, and then we have lower-cost inventory in the Haynesville than some of our peers, lower cost because we still have a lot of development in the core of the Haynesville and also because we have the best capital efficiency in the Haynesville, and we have a slide in the deck that details that.

當然。我的意思是，我認為我們都可以透過供應模型計算出邊際盈虧平衡的具體數字。當然，每個人對此的看法都會有所不同。所以我們認為這個數字是——我將大致稱之為 3 中間。因此，我們認為我們可能處於較低的業務水平，因為我們在馬塞勒斯擁有大量成本非常低的庫存，然後我們在海恩斯維爾擁有比一些同行更低成本的庫存，成本較低是因為我們在海恩斯維爾核心地區仍有很多開發項目，也因為我們在海恩斯維爾擁有最佳的資本效率，我們在演示文稿中有一個幻燈片詳細說明了這一點。

So we think we sit in a really attractive position relative to the industry's marginal breakeven. And that's super important because if you're going to be a company that responds to supply and demand signals, you really need to know where you sit. And if you're at the tail end of that marginal breakeven, you shouldn't be the first company to respond, but I don't think that's where we are. We are most proximate to the growing demand. And in that area of proximity, we have the most capital-efficient assets. And so we really like our competitive position.

因此，我們認為，相對於產業的邊際損益平衡點，我們處於一個非常有吸引力的位置。這非常重要，因為如果你想成為一家響應供需訊號的公司，你真的需要知道你處於什麼位置。如果你處於邊際盈虧平衡的尾端，你不應該是第一個做出反應的公司，但我不認為我們現在處於這種情況。我們最接近不斷增長的需求。在那個鄰近地區，我們擁有資本效率最高的資產。所以我們真的很喜歡我們的競爭地位。

Zach Parham, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的紮克·帕勒姆。

First, Josh, you mentioned some meat on the bone left on driving D&C costs lower. Have you built any of those incremental D&C declines into the CapEx budget? I mean, you've been consistently coming in at the low end or below on CapEx over the last several quarters. So just trying to get a sense on if that trend could be set to continue?

首先，喬希，你提到了在降低 D&C 成本方面還剩下一些實質的內容。您是否已將任何增量 D&C 下降納入資本支出預算？我的意思是，在過去幾個季度裡，你們的資本支出一直處於低端或以下。那麼只是想了解這種趨勢是否會持續下去？

Yes. So what I would say is that for the $400 million of synergy, that does account for additional improvements. But I do believe and I have an expectation that we continue to find opportunities to enhance efficiencies through the year. And if realized, will create upside to the capital needed to execute our 2025 program.

是的。所以我想說的是，4 億美元的綜效確實可以帶來額外的改善。但我確實相信並且期望我們能夠在今年繼續尋找機會提高效率。一旦實現，將為執行我們的 2025 計劃所需的資本創造優勢。

Zach, one thing I would add to that is just as we think about our synergies over time -- and this goes back to a little bit of a question that Doug was asking at the beginning of the call. We've identified $500 million in synergies that we think are very clearly tied to this merger. Now ongoing, one of the reasons you put together businesses like this and the reasons you're excited about it are that there's increasing opportunities each and every day to improve upon your business.

扎克，我想補充一點，正如我們思考我們隨著時間的推移所產生的協同效應一樣——這又回到了道格在通話開始時提出的一個小問題。我們已經確定了 5 億美元的協同效應，我們認為這些協同效應與此次合併有著非常明確的關聯。現在正在進行中，您創辦此類企業的原因之一以及您對此感到興奮的原因是，每天都有越來越多的機會來改善您的業務。

So where we see the line between synergies that are directly tied to the merging of the two entities versus ongoing improvements in our business will become more and more gray every day post close. So we're going to be really accountable for this first $500 million, and then we're just going to continue to improve our business every day.

因此，我們看到，與兩個實體合併直接相關的協同效應與我們業務的持續改進之間的界線在交易結束後會變得越來越模糊。因此，我們將真正對這前 5 億美元負責，然後我們將繼續每天改善我們的業務。

That's helpful color. And then just wanted to follow up on a couple of the earlier questions. So you currently talked about anchoring to that 7.5 Bcf a day level in 2026, which -- in the slide in the deck, that's based on a mid-cycle price of $3.50. The strips above that level over the next couple of years, do you see any scenarios where you would move production higher from that 7.5 Bcf a day level in 2026? Just trying to get a sense of how flexible you could be there, both going higher and lower?

這是很有幫助的顏色。然後我只是想跟進一下之前的幾個問題。因此，您目前談到了在 2026 年將天然氣產量穩定在每天 75 億立方英尺的水平，在幻燈片中，這是基於 3.50 美元的中期價格。未來幾年，如果產量超過這一水平，您是否預見到有某種情況可以使產量從 2026 年每天 75 億立方英尺的水平進一步提高？只是想了解你在那裡能有多靈活，無論是高或低？

You certainly could go higher, Zach. I think it would take underwriting a price above $4. If you look at that heat map chart, you can see that for us to be comfortable targeting a price above or targeting a level of production above 7.5 Bcf a day, you probably want to be underwriting a price, meaning you have confidence in a forward look for two to three years that's $4 or higher.

你當然可以走得更高，札克。我認為承銷價格需要高於 4 美元。如果您看一下熱圖，您會發現，為了讓我們能夠放心地將價格目標定在 75 億立方英尺/天以上，或者將產量目標定在 75 億立方英尺/天以上，您可能需要承保一個價格，這意味著您對未來兩到三年的價格有信心，該價格將達到 4 美元或更高。

Not quite where we are today. The dynamics for the gas market are super constructive, and we feel really good about the near term here. But we also know that, like I mentioned earlier, these prices will elicit a supply response. And so we want to make sure we're not getting in front of that, and we're thinking through that and prepared for how that dynamic will evolve over time.

與我們今天的情況還不完全一樣。天然氣市場的動態非常具有建設性，我們對近期前景感到非常樂觀。但我們也知道，正如我之前提到的，這些價格將引起供應反應。因此，我們要確保我們不會走在前面，我們正在仔細考慮這個問題，並為這種動態隨著時間的推移將如何演變做好準備。

Our market never responds perfectly and is always overreacting to one side or the other. But given the lack of rig count increase that we've seen as we've gone through this winter, we do think that the supply response should be a bit more muted this time than what we've seen in some past cycles. And we think that's a really encouraging sign for the health of the market longer term.

我們的市場從來不會做出完美的反應，而且總是對某一方反應過度。但考慮到今年冬季鑽井數量並沒有增加，我們確實認為這次的供應反應應該比過去幾個週期的供應反應要溫和一些。我們認為這對於長期市場健康而言是一個非常令人鼓舞的訊號。

Now if any of those dynamics change and you see that the look out into '26, '27, '28 maintains a more constructive dynamic of supply and demand, then yes, we could underwrite a higher price. I think the most likely thing that would drive that would be if we felt that the utilization of LNG on the Gulf Coast would remain at or near 100%, meaning that demand for LNG around the globe maintained a strong pull on U.S. supply through that entire period. We need to see that evolve. We're not quite there today.

現在，如果這些動態中的任何一個發生變化，並且您發現對 26、27、28 年的展望保持了更具建設性的供需動態，那麼是的，我們可以承保更高的價格。我認為最有可能推動這一趨勢的因素是，我們認為墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣利用率將保持在 100% 或接近 100%，這意味著全球對液化天然氣的需求在整個時期對美國供應保持強勁拉動。我們需要看到它的發展。我們今天還沒有到達那裡。

The power growth demand story in the U.S. is another angle that could surprise to the upside. You'd have to see a real acceleration in how those plants are built, where they're built, and our ability to supply gas to them. We really like our position for the power demand growth story in the U.S. because we are regionally diversified because we have access to infrastructure that can allow us to grow.

美國電力需求成長情況是另一個可能帶來意外驚喜的角度。你必須看到這些工廠的建設方式、建造地點以及我們向它們供應天然氣的能力真正加速發展。我們非常喜歡我們在美國電力需求成長故事中的地位，因為我們具有區域多元化，因為我們可以使用可以讓我們發展的基礎設施。

So there's a good news story around all of those things. But we want to see that play out before we would underwrite a higher price. I'm using the word underwrite very intentionally, right? We think about making a multiyear investment decision, and we think about it as an underwriting decision that should have an appropriate level of conservatism to it and be prepared to capture upside when it's available to us.

所以所有這些事情都有一個好消息。但我們想先看到這個結果，然後再承保更高的價格。我特意使用了承保這個詞，對嗎？我們考慮做出一項多年的投資決策，我們認為這是一個承保決策，應該具有適當的保守性，並準備在可能​​的情況下抓住上行機會。

Thanks, Nick. That makes a lot of sense.

謝謝，尼克。這很有道理。

Bert Donnes, Truist.

伯特·唐尼斯（Bert Donnes），Truist。

On potential data center agreements, maybe what are your thoughts on how involved you need to be in the project? I guess where on the spectrum do you fall if maybe all the way on one side is you need to be a part of the upfront spend or maybe all the way on the other side where you just provide the gas and get a fixed price or a premium? And do you think there's room for a consortium of names to provide the gas supply? Or should it be more siloed with each producer having kind of their own individual agreement?

關於潛在的資料中心協議，您對需要在多大程度上參與該專案有何看法？我想，如果可能一方面您需要參與前期支出，或者另一方面您只需提供天然氣並獲得固定價格或溢價，那麼您會處於哪種情況？您認為由多個公司組成的財團有能力提供天然氣供應嗎？或者應該更加孤立，每個生產者都有自己的單獨協議？

Those are good questions, Bert. I don't think they're completely known yet. We're open to all commercial structures associated with the creation and support of long-term demand for our industry. What we like about those projects is that they do represent long-term structural demand, really sticky, not weather-driven, short-term events.

這些都是很好的問題，伯特。我認為它們還未被完全了解。我們對所有與創造和支持我們行業的長期需求相關的商業結構持開放態度。我們喜歡這些項目，因為它們確實代表了長期的結構性需求，真正具有黏性，而不是受天氣驅動的短期事件。

So we're open to supporting that in a number of different ways, but we are also very cognizant of our cost of capital and what would be efficient for our shareholders for us to invest. So I don't know that we need to invest capital in the infrastructure. But under the right economic scenarios, would we? Sure. We do definitely focus on what it means from a bottom line standpoint for the gas that we sell and the opportunity that we have to create a total return on our activities.

因此，我們願意以多種不同方式支持這一點，但我們也非常清楚我們的資本成本以及我們的投資對股東來說是最有效的。所以我不知道我們是否需要在基礎設施上投入資金。但在正確的經濟情境下，我們會嗎？當然。我們確實關注從底線角度來看這對我們銷售的天然氣意味著什麼，以及我們必須從我們的活動中獲得總回報的機會。

As to whether or not we can do supply agreements like that on our own or you need a consortium, given our scale of supply, investment-grade balance sheet, our ability to deliver gas to a number of different places, we're -- we think it's perfect -- we're perfectly capable of doing things like that on our own, maybe even uniquely so.

至於我們是否可以自己達成這樣的供應協議，或者是否需要一個財團，考慮到我們的供應規模、投資級資產負債表、以及我們向多個不同地方輸送天然氣的能力，我們認為這是完美的——我們完全有能力自己做這樣的事情，甚至可能是獨一無二的。

And at the same time, if there's a series of plants or a series of customers that want to have gas for multiple locations or want some diversity of supply, we can work with others on that as well. But we do think we're well situated to be a sole supplier for certain projects.

同時，如果有一系列工廠或一系列客戶希望在多個地點供應天然氣或希望供應多樣化，我們也可以與其他公司合作。但我們確實認為我們有能力成為某些項目的獨家供應商。

Got you. Very clear. And then just shifting gears a little bit. You outlined most of the potential growth in the productive capacity scenario would come from the Haynesville, but I assume maybe some growth happens in Appalachia at higher prices? And a few of your peers outlined growth plans in Appalachia that I think assume in-basin demand is going to materialize.

明白了。非常清楚。然後稍微改一下話題。您概述了生產能力情景中的大部分潛在增長將來自海恩斯維爾，但我認為也許在價格更高的情況下阿巴拉契亞地區也會出現一些增長？您的一些同事概述了阿巴拉契亞地區的成長計劃，我認為這些計劃假設盆地內的需求將會實現。

But could you maybe talk about if you're seeing availability of transportation pickups? I mean, is -- are there roll-offs of other operators that aren't growing? Or just maybe how you think about if there is Appalachian growth, where do those incremental volumes head?

但是您能否談談您是否看到了交通接送的可用性？我的意思是──其他業者的規模有沒有成長？或者您認為如果阿巴拉契亞山脈出現成長，這些增量將流向何處？

Another good question, Bert. I think there's a little bit of all of that, not maybe in huge size. So there's always a little bit of roll-off from others as the basins mature. When that happens, we're really well positioned, should we want it to take advantage. There's definitely some in-basin demand growth.

另一個好問題，伯特。我認為這些都有一點，但規模可能不大。因此，隨著盆地的成熟，總是會有少量的滾落。當這種情況發生時，我們就處於非常有利的位置，我們應該利用它。流域內的需求肯定會有所成長。

And like I said, we're in the middle of a lot of those conversations to try to help encourage that. There's discussion of new infrastructure, and you've seen some of that in the press lately, and we're going to pay really close attention to that. And if those projects make sense, we'll be a part of that as well.

正如我所說的，我們正在進行許多這樣的對話，試圖幫助鼓勵這一點。有關於新基礎設施的討論，最近你們在媒體上也看到了一些，我們會密切關注這一點。如果這些項目有意義，我們也會參與其中。

The assets that we have in Appalachia, particularly our Northeast Pennsylvania position, is the most economic gas in the United States. And any opportunity that we have to deliver more of that into a constructive market with durable demand, you should expect we will seek and achieve.

我們在阿巴拉契亞山脈擁有的資產，特別是賓州東北部的資產，是美國最經濟的天然氣資產。我們應該抓住任何機會，將更多的產品帶入具有持久需求的建設性市場，您應該期待我們能夠尋求並實現這一目標。

So those things are hard to make happen or they would have happened several times over, but there's probably a better opportunity to see those things happen today than there has been in quite a long time.

所以這些事情很難實現，否則它們就會發生多次，但今天可能比很長一段時間以來更有機會看到這些事情發生。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call over to Nick for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉給尼克，請他做最後發言。請繼續。

Thanks, everybody, for joining the call today. We're really excited about what 2025 and 2026 has in store for us. The market has been volatile, and we are better prepared for that volatility, we think, than just about anybody else out there. We look forward to using that preparation and flexibility in our business to create incremental and attractive return for shareholders.

感謝大家今天參加電話會議。我們對 2025 年和 2026 年將要發生的事情感到非常興奮。市場一直處於波動狀態，我們認為，我們比其他任何人都更能應對這種波動。我們期待在業務中利用這種準備和靈活性為股東創造增量和有吸引力的回報。

We'll all be on the road quite a bit over the next few weeks. And so probably see several of you out on the conference circuit and look forward to engaging with everybody. Talk to you soon. Thanks.

在接下來的幾周里，我們都會經常出行。因此，我們可能會在會議中看到你們中的一些人，並期待與大家交流。很快再和你聊。謝謝。

This does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you so much for joining. You may all disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。你們都可以斷開連線。