Expand Energy Corp (EXE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, for standing by, and welcome to be Expand Energy Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Expand Energy Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instruction) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

(操作員指示)提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Chris Ayres, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係副總裁克里斯艾爾斯 (Chris Ayres)。

Please go ahead, sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thanks, Jonathan.

謝謝，喬納森。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call to discuss Expand Energy's third-quarter 2024 for financial and operating results.

大家早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論 Expand Energy 2024 年第三季的財務和營運表現。

Hopefully you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation, and we posted to our website yesterday.

希望您有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿和更新的投資者介紹，我們昨天已將其發佈到我們的網站上。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward looking statements, which consist of statements that can either be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our goals, beliefs, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements.

在今天早上的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述包括可以透過參考現有資訊確認的陳述，包括有關我們的目標、信念、期望、預測、預計和未來表現的陳述以及這些陳述所依據的假設。

Please also note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings.

也請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異，包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。

Please also recognize that except as required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

另外請注意，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過度依賴此類陳述。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers.

我們也可以參考一些非公認會計準則財務指標，這有助於進行跨時期和同業的比較。

For any non-GAAP measure we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure and can be found on our website.

對於任何非 GAAP 指標，我們都使用與最接近的相應 GAAP 指標的調整表，可在我們的網站上找到。

With me today on the call are Domenic Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh and Josh Viets.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Domenic Dell'Osso、Mohit Singh 和 Josh Viets。

Nic will give a brief overview of our results, and then we'll open up the teleconference Q&A.

Nic 將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將開始電話會議問答。

So with that, thank you again in turn the time over to Nic.

因此，再次感謝你將時間交給 Nic。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Expand Energy's first earnings call.

早安，感謝您參加 Expand Energy 的首次財報電話會議。

This is an exciting time for our company, and I look forward to briefly highlighting our third-quarter results and providing our preliminary outlook for 2025.

這對我們公司來說是一個激動人心的時刻，我期待著簡要介紹我們的第三季業績並提供我們對 2025 年的初步展望。

The integration of our two companies is off to a great start.

我們兩家公司的整合已經有了良好的開端。

Through the first month we've seen plenty of accomplishments and are ahead of schedule with our integration plans.

在第一個月裡，我們取得了許多成就，我們的整合計畫也提前完成了。

Our early success is a testament to the quality of our employees and their commitment to making Expand Energy, a leading energy producer.

我們早期的成功證明了我們員工的素質以及他們致力於將 Expand Energy 打造為領先能源生產商的承諾。

For the two standalone companies, we see significant momentum heading into 2025 with solid third-quarter results, delivering impressive operational gains, which will enhance future margins and profitability.

對於兩家獨立公司而言，我們預計它們將在 2025 年迎來強勁發展勢頭，第三季業績穩健，營運收益可觀，這將提高未來的利潤率和獲利能力。

A few notable achievements from the quarter include the combined company produced 6.75 bcfe per day while continuing to build productive capacity through our deferred completions and turn-in-lines.

本季度的一些顯著成就包括合併後的公司每天生產 6.75 bcfe，同時繼續透過延期完工和投產來建立生產能力。

Legacy Chesapeake drilling operations delivered record quarterly feet per day in the Haynesville and Northeast Appalachia, while the company also set monthly and quarterly completion records for total hours pumped in Northeast Appalachia, not to be outdone, legacy Southwestern drill the 25,191 foot lateral in Southwest Appalachia, a record lateral length for a lower 48 onshore well.

傳統的切薩皮克鑽井業務在海恩斯維爾和東北阿巴拉契亞地區創造了每季度創紀錄的鑽井數量，同時該公司還創下了東北阿巴拉契亞地區月度和季度完井總小時數的記錄，傳統的西南石油公司也不甘示弱，在西南阿巴拉契亞地區鑽探了 25,191 英尺的水平井，創下了美國本土井的水平井記錄 48 口陸井。

Now, I'd like to talk about why we're so excited about what this company will deliver for our shareholders and energy consumers alike starting with 2025.

現在，我想談談為什麼我們對這家公司從 2025 年開始為我們的股東和能源消費者帶來什麼感到如此興奮。

Our preliminary capital and operational plans illustrate the powerful combination of expand energy and our outlook for enhanced operational efficiencies.

我們的初步資本和營運計劃體現了擴大能源和提高營運效率前景的強大組合。

We are truly better together with a portfolio that will be more competitive and resilient and all price cycles.

我們擁有一個更具競爭力和彈性、並且能適應所有價格週期的投資組合，這確實會更好。

Our preliminary outlook for 2025 includes approximately $2.7 billion of total capital to deliver an average of 7 bcfe per day.

我們對 2025 年的初步預測包括約 27 億美元的總資本，平均每天提供 7 億標準煤。

Compared to Chesapeake standalone maintenance level this represents a 120% increase in production with only an 80% increase in capital.

與切薩皮克獨立維護水準相比，這意味著產量增加了 120%，而資本僅增加了 80%。

Our strong outlook will be driven by the achievement of our synergies and capturing significant capital and operating efficiencies.

我們的強勁前景將由協同效應的實現以及獲得​​顯著的資本和營運效率所推動。

I recognize many companies promised synergies.

我知道許多公司都承諾實現協同效應。

For us, the definition of success is clear.

對我們來說，成功的定義是明確的。

It's all about capital and operating efficiencies, resulting in spending less while producing more.

這一切都關乎資本和營運效率，進而減少開支、增加產量。

In 2025, our capital efficiency should benefit from the deferred activity we built during 2024.

2025 年，我們的資本效率應受惠於我們在 2024 年建立的延期活動。

Importantly, however, we expect this capital efficiency ratio to hold as our synergy realization builds and operating efficiencies continue to deliver higher value for every dollar spent.

然而，重要的是，隨著協同效應的實現和營運效率的提高，我們預計這一資本效率比率將保持不變，從而繼續為每一美元的支出帶來更高的價值。

This ensures we deliver better financial performance during down cycles and more free cash flow during periods of higher prices.

這確保我們在經濟低迷時期提供更好的財務業績，並在價格上漲期間提供更多的自由現金流。

Our confidence in our preliminary plan is based on our early integration wins, which have positioned us to raise our expected annual synergies target by 25% to $500 million.

我們對初步計劃的信心是基於我們早期整合的成功，這使我們能夠將預期的年度協同效應目標提高 25％，達到 5 億美元。

The extended period between deal announcement and close allowed us to hit the ground running.

交易宣布和完成之間的較長時間使得我們能夠立即開始工作。

Any initial weeks of Expand Energy, we have already successfully drilled telemetry data from all drilling rigs -- successfully streamed drilling telemetry data from all drilling rigs to our drilling ops centre, allowing real-time optimization.

Expand Energy 成立後的最初幾週，我們成功從所有鑽井平台獲取了鑽井遙測數據，成功地將所有鑽井平台的鑽井遙測數據傳輸到我們的鑽井操作中心，實現了即時優化。

Redirected legacy Southwestern produced water to owned water disposal assets, saving $1 per barrel and implemented a new org structure to ensure Expand Energy is comprised of the best talent while capturing the best work processes from both organizations.

將西南能源公司原有的生產水重新定向到自有的水處理資產中，每桶節省 1 美元，並實施了新的組織結構，以確保 Expand Energy 擁有最優秀的人才，同時吸收兩個組織的最佳工作流程。

Given our strong start, we expect to achieve approximately $225 million in synergies, which is more than 50% of our original synergy target next year and are well on our way to achieving the full $500 million annual target by year-end 2027.

鑑於我們良好的開端，我們預計實現約 2.25 億美元的協同效應，這將超過我們明年原定協同效應目標的 50%，並且我們預計在 2027 年底前實現 5 億美元的年度目標。

Our strategy to build productive capacity will also provide a strong tailwind into 2025.

我們的生產能力建構策略也將為 2025 年提供強勁推動力。

We're on track to build approximately 80 deferred sales and up to 1 bcfe per day of short-cycle capacity by year end.

我們的目標是在年底實現約 80 個延期銷售和每天高達 1 bcfe 的短週期產能。

We will be prudent and turning production online and ready to rapidly respond to market condition when pricing improves.

我們將採取謹慎態度，將生產轉向線上，並準備在價格改善時快速對市場狀況做出反應。

Ultimately what we don't know exactly how prices will respond we do expect market volatility to continue.

最終，我們不知道價格究竟會如何反應，但我們預期市場波動將持續下去。

Expand Energy was built to deliver through cycles and our hedge the web strategy provides great confidence in our financial outlook as we benefit from attractive collars and ceilings that are priced well into the $4 per MMBtu range.

Expand Energy 的成立旨在實現週期性交付，而我們的對沖網絡策略為我們的財務前景提供了極大的信心，因為我們受益於頗具吸引力的上限和下限，其價格遠超每百萬英熱單位 4 美元的範圍。

Simply, but we have effectively protected our 2025 program from a prolonged down cycle while ensuring we can still capture significant upside value in periods of higher prices.

簡單來說，我們有效地保護了我們的 2025 計劃，使其免受長期下行週期的影響，同時確保我們仍然可以在價格較高時期獲得顯著的上行價值。

While our powerful portfolio and efficient operations are keys to our sustainable success.

而我們強大的產品組合和高效的營運是我們永續成功的關鍵。

So, to as our resilient balance sheet and capital returns program.

因此，這是我們有彈性的資產負債表和資本回報計劃。

We achieved an investment grade credit rating upon close, allowing us to transition our RBL to unsecured, eliminate financing costs and ultimately access capital at more attractive rates.

我們在交易結束時獲得了投資級信用評級，這使我們能夠將 RBL 轉換為無擔保，消除融資成本，並最終以更具吸引力的利率獲得資本。

Our investment grade rating strengthens our position with counter parties as we continue to execute our LNG ready strategy and supply power to domestic markets need.

隨著我們繼續執行液化天然氣就緒策略並滿足國內市場需求，我們的投資級評級增強了我們與交易對手的地位。

We understand the importance of a strong balance sheet and peer leading shareholder returns, both hallmarks of legacy Chesapeake since our restructuring.

我們了解強勁的資產負債表和同業領先的股東回報的重要性，這兩者都是切薩皮克自重組以來的標誌。

To ensure financial strength remains a pillar of expand energy, we are enhancing our capital return framework to reduce net debt while maintaining an attractive capital return to shareholders.

為了確保財務實力仍然是擴大能源業務的支柱，我們正在加強資本回報框架，以減少淨債務，同時保持對股東有吸引力的資本回報。

Our new framework prioritizes the base dividend and debt reduction, while including a $1 billion share repurchase authorization and the opportunity for future variable dividends when market conditions warrant.

我們的新框架優先考慮基本股息和債務削減，同時包括 10 億美元的股票回購授權和在市場條件允許時未來浮動股息的機會。

I have said before, the world is short energy.

我說過，世界缺乏能源。

As the largest domestic producer of natural gas with an advantaged portfolio, resilient financial foundation and geographically diverse assets.

作為國內最大的天然氣生產商，擁有優勢的產品組合、穩健的財務基礎和地理分散的資產。

We are built to answer the call of increased domestic and international demand as well as driving the volatility that will naturally follow this rapidly evolving market.

我們成立的目的是為了回應國內外日益增長的需求，並推動這個快速發展的市場自然的波動。

In doing so we are primed to expand opportunity for all stakeholders.

透過這樣做，我們準備為所有利害關係人擴大機會。

I look forward to updating you on our progress, and we're now pleased to address your questions.

我期待向您通報我們的進展，現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

Certainly.

當然。

Kevin McCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

麥卡迪 (Kevin McCurdy)，皮克林能源合夥公司 (Pickering Energy Partners)。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

My first question is on the capital costs.

我的第一個問題是關於資本成本。

I think the outlook for $2.7 billion in 2025 was lower than expected.

我認為 2025 年 27 億美元的前景低於預期。

My question is, how did the $225 million in synergies in 2025 compare to your original target?

我的問題是，2025 年 2.25 億美元的綜效與您最初的目標相比如何？

And what else are you seeing on the well costs in your legacy assets?

您還看到了有關遺留資產油井成本的其他哪些資訊？

It looks like quarterly production came in, or quarterly CapEx came in lower than expected again this quarter?

看起來本季的季度產量或季度資本支出再次低於預期？

Yeah, I'll just start by noting that the $225 million increase is a combination of a few things.

是的，我首先要指出的是，2.25 億美元的成長是多種因素共同作用的結果。

It is heavy on the capital side, though, I'll let Josh give you the specifics.

不過，資金方面負擔很重，我會讓喬希給你具體細節。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Kevin on the 2025 about $75 million of that's going to be attributed to the CapEx.

嘿，凱文，到 2025 年，其中約 7500 萬美元將歸因於資本支出。

But just as a comparison to where we started, one of the things that we had talked about with the $400 million, which is what we described at the transaction rollout, is that $400 million would be delivered about, a third.

但與我們開始時的情況相比，我們在談到 4 億美元時談到的事情之一（也就是我們在交易推出時所描述的）是，4 億美元將交付約三分之一。

So cumulative building over a three-year time period.

因此，三年時間內進行了累計建設。

So you're talking about almost a $100 million increase in year one as far as what we're able to deliver from a synergy standpoint.

因此，就從綜效的角度來看，我們能夠在第一年實現近 1 億美元的成長。

Your second question, just in regard to kind of well cost trends, really just incredibly pleased with the execution performance that we've seen.

您的第二個問題是關於成本趨勢，我們對所看到的執行表現感到非常滿意。

Nick referenced a couple of the highlights for the quarter, record pumping month within our Northeast app.

尼克提到了本季的幾個亮點，創下了我們東北地區應用程式的抽水月記錄。

We've seen record footage per day, really across the entire company, including one of the more challenging places to drill in the NFC of the Haynesville, where we averaged just under 900 feet a day, which again is a record for the company.

我們每天都會看到創紀錄的鑽井鏡頭，實際上遍及整個公司，包括 NFC 海恩斯維爾最難鑽探的地方之一，我們在那裡平均每天鑽探近 900 英尺，這再次創造了公司的紀錄。

And then of course, we have seen some deflationary elements show up as well, and that's really carrying on into the fourth quarter.

當然，我們也看到一些通貨緊縮因素出現，而且這種趨勢確實持續到了第四季。

And we expect to see a little bit more market softness heading into the first quarter and all that's been accounted for within the current plan.

我們預計第一季市場將略微疲軟，所有這些都已在當前計劃中考慮到。

Great.

偉大的。

And my follow up is on OpEx.

我的後續工作是關於 OpEx。

And I know you don't have all the details yet on 2025, but just curious if the 4Q OpEx guidance is a good starting point for next year, or is there anything else that you've identified synergies on the OpEx side in the near term?

我知道您還沒有掌握 2025 年的所有細節，但我只是好奇第四季度的營運支出指引是否是明年的一個好起點，或者您是否也發現了近期營運支出的其他協同效應？

Yeah, I think the Q4 numbers is relatively good as far as the where we've take the range there and we will start to see a little more synergy show up specifically on the water disposal side of the business in the Haynesville.

是的，我認為就我們所處的範圍而言，第四季度的數據相對較好，我們將開始看到更多的協同效應，特別是在海恩斯維爾業務的水處理方面。

And then, of course, the plan that we've rolled out, we've shown production modestly growing through the course of the year.

當然，我們已經推出的計劃表明，產量在全年都會適度增長。

But the Q4 number and the guide that we've offered there is a relatively good starting point for you.

但我們提供的第四季數據和指南對您來說是一個相對較好的起點。

Thank you, and congratulations on closing the deal.

謝謝，恭喜您達成交易。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess, Nick, first of all, I'll also add my congratulations to the synergy uptick, but forgive me for this one.

我想，尼克，首先，我還要對綜效的提升表示祝賀，但請原諒我這一點。

I guess we're never happy with some synergy targets because they tend to be risks at the outset.

我想我們永遠不會對某些協同目標感到滿意，因為它們一開始就往往有風險。

You obviously never want to put a number that you can deliver.

你顯然不會想給出一個你可以實現的數字。

So I guess what question is that, are you done in terms of your view of what you think the merger can deliver?

所以我想問的是，您對合併能帶來什麼的看法是否已經成形？

There are a lot of things discussed, and we went to the Haynesville with you last year.

討論了很多事情，去年我們還和你一起去了海恩斯維爾。

And in terms of what you could do differently, obviously, you've got a chance to potentially refinance some of the higher cost debt, although the debt maturity site looks pretty attractive.

至於您可以採取的不同措施，顯然，您有機會對部分高成本債務進行再融資，儘管債務到期地點看起來相當有吸引力。

There's a lot of things that you could take off a bunch of different things.

你可以從很多不同的東西中取出很多東西。

So I guess my question is how have your risked the delivery of the synergies?

所以我想我的問題是，你冒著怎樣的風險來實現綜效？

How would you characterize the medium term outlook where we're going to be sitting this time next year in terms of how this target looks?

就這一目標而言，您如何描述我們明年此時的中期前景？

Frankly, I love that question, Doug.

坦白說，我很喜歡這個問題，道格。

So to directly answer the question, are we done?

那麼直接回答這個問題，我們完成了嗎？

I certainly hope not.

我當然不希望如此。

We are pretty methodical and deliberate about how we determine what we're going to consider a synergy.

我們對於如何確定什麼是協同作用是非常有條理且慎重的。

How we're going to project it, and ensure that it is tangible and quantitative in nature.

我們將如何預測它，並確保它本質上是具體和量化的。

That said, this is now a huge portfolio of assets with tons of opportunity in it.

也就是說，這現在是一個巨大的資產組合，其中蘊含著大量的機會。

And the opportunity exists across the entire portfolio.

整個投資組合都存在這樣的機會。

As you think about all of the learnings that come together from operating across both legacy companies' portfolios, you think about the talent and the teams that come together, you think about the number of rigs that we're running, the number of acres that we're maintaining on a daily basis, the operating platform that we will manage.

當你思考從兩家傳統公司投資組合營運中得到的所有經驗時，你會想到聚集在一起的人才和團隊，你會想到我們正在運行的鑽機數量，我們每天維護的土地面積，以及我們將管理的營運平台。

And then in addition to that, as you noted, the balance sheet implications of this larger, stronger organization.

除此之外，正如您所說，這個規模更大、實力更強的組織對資產負債表有影響。

There's a lot of things for us to do here.

我們在這裡有很多事情要做。

And we believe that scale can offer a lot of really significant opportunities.

我們相信，規模可以帶來許多真正重大的機會。

We've captured a good many of those in our synergy projection.

我們在協同預測中已經捕捉到了許多這樣的情況。

We've been able to increase it today because we had a good long time period to plan for closing.

今天我們能夠增加這一數量，因為我們有一段很長的時間來計劃收尾。

And we were able to gain confidence in some things that we thought were potential, but we now consider to be absolutely part of our plan.

我們對一些我們認為有潛力的事情充滿了信心，但現在我們認為這絕對是我們計劃的一部分。

I would love for us to continue to add to that number over time.

我希望隨著時間的推移，我們能夠繼續增加這個數字。

But in order for us to do that and call something a synergy, it's going to have to meet the same criteria that we've put into calling the $500 million that you see in our model today as synergies.

但為了做到這一點並將某種東西稱為協同效應，它必須滿足與我們今天在模型中看到的 5 億美元稱為協同效應相同的標準。

And it's a reasonably high bar and a high bar for a good reason.

這是一個相當高的標準，而且這個高標準是有充分理由的。

We want to be able to deliver something that we have great confidence that we can deliver and that we can prove when we call something a synergy like this.

我們希望能夠交付一些我們有非常自信能夠交付的東西，並且當我們稱之為這樣的協同作用時，我們可以證明這一點。

The last thing I would say is keep in mind, Legacy Chesapeake did two acquisitions over the last couple of years.

我最後要說的是，請記住，Legacy Chesapeake 在過去幾年中進行了兩次收購。

Legacy Southwestern did three over the last three or four years as well.

Legacy Southwestern 在過去三、四年也做了三次。

So we have a lot of practice at bringing together operating teams, creating synergies, tracking them, and understanding what is possible and what's not.

因此，我們在整合營運團隊、創造協同效應、追蹤協同效應以及了解什麼是可能的、什麼是不可能的方面有很多實踐。

And so I think our track record here is something that we're going to rely on.

所以我認為我們在這裡的業績記錄是值得依賴的。

And the learning history is important to us as we think about how we have confidence and what's in front of us and knowing that we can deliver on the numbers that we're providing.

當我們思考我們如何擁有信心、我們面臨什麼以及知道我們能夠實現我們所提供的數字時，學習歷史對我們來說很重要。

Very cool answer, Nick.

非常酷的回答，尼克。

I guess you're right.

我想你是對的。

The track record, the history, and the experience you've got of integration is something that I don't think all of us should forget.

我認為我們所有人都不應該忘記你們在融合方面所取得的成績、歷史和經驗。

My follow-up is kind of a macro question.

我的後續問題是一個宏觀問題。

We ask you this question a lot, but on slide 10, you've laid out the cadence potentially of bringing back production.

我們經常問您這個問題，但在第 10 張投影片上，您已經列出了恢復生產的潛在節奏。

I'll be blunt.

我就直說吧。

I think there's some skepticism on the capital efficiency benefits you're getting from drilling wells now completely normal, bringing them online.

我認為，人們對現在鑽井已完全正常並投入使用所帶來的資本效率效益持懷疑態度。

So, I wonder if I could ask you to speak to your confidence in the 2.7, 2.8 sustaining capital?

那麼，我想知道我是否可以請您談談您對 2.7、2.8 維持資本的信心？

And more importantly, what are the conditions under which you would not bring back this production in 2025?

更重要的是，在什麼情況下你不會在 2025 年恢復這項生產？

Another great question.

又一個好問題。

So first, our competence, and it is very, very high, and it's not just confidence in the 2.7 for 2025.

首先，我們的能力非常非常高，而且不僅僅是對 2025 年 2.7 的信心。

We gave you in addition to that, another slide in the deck where we show you a 2027 look, which is an opportunity for us to show you what our capital efficiency looks like when all of the tailwind of the deferred activity from 2024 has rolled completely through the system.

除此之外，我們還為您提供了另一張幻燈片，向您展示了 2027 年的面貌，這是我們向您展示當 2024 年延期活動的所有順風完全席捲整個系統時，我們的資本效率會是什麼樣的機會。

And what happens is that you have capital efficiency benefit from the deferred activity in '25 as that capital efficiency winds down from that tailwind.

而實際情況是，您將從 25 年的遞延活動中獲得資本效率效益，因為資本效率會隨著順風而逐漸下降。

That efficiency is replaced with the synergies associated with our cost reductions from the merger.

這種效率被合併帶來的成本降低所產生的綜效所取代。

And so, we think that the ratio effectively of CapEx to production that you see in 2025 is sustainable going forward.

因此，我們認為，2025 年資本支出與生產的有效比率在未來是可持續的。

Now what could cause us not to do it, lots of things.

現在，有很多原因可能導致我們不這樣做。

We have complete control over to reference the same slide10, there is a wedge of production on those slides -- on a slide that shows and a light blue color that represents the volumes from the deferred activity that's completely at ARC patrol as to whether or not we bring online and if prices are soft as we come through winter.

我們可以完全控制引用相同的幻燈片 10，這些幻燈片上有一個生產楔子 - 在幻燈片上顯示，淺藍色代表完全在 ARC 巡邏的延期活動的數量，至於我們是否上線以及價格是否在冬季疲軟。

And if we have congestion and storage and the supply demand fundamentals are weaker than the forward strip would indicate today, then these volumes don't need to come online, and we can moderate this accordingly.

如果我們出現擁塞和存儲，而供需基本面弱於今天遠期價格所顯示的水平，那麼這些交易量就不需要上線，我們可以相應地進行調節。

So, we have a lot of control over this and a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver on it.

因此，我們對此有很大的控制權，並且對我們實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。

And we have a lot of confidence in our ability to hold this capital efficiency into the future.

我們對未來維持這種資本效率的能力充滿信心。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matthew Portillo, TPH.

馬修·波蒂略（TPH）。

Good morning all.

大家早安。

Just a quick question around the opportunities for additional optimization, as you mentioned, maybe a bit longer dated, but curious on the midstream side, specifically thinking about maybe some of your contracts in the Northeast, but also in the Haynesville.

正如您所說，我只是想快速問一下有關額外優化機會的問題，也許這個問題的時間更長一些，但我對中游方面感到很好奇，特別是考慮您在東北部以及海恩斯維爾的一些合約。

Do you guys see any opportunity over the next few years to optimize your midstream and marketing side of the business?

你們是否認為未來幾年有機會優化你們的中游和行銷業務？

Good Morning Matt, this is Mohit.

早安，馬特，我是莫希特。

That's a great question as well just a reminder, we closed the transaction on October 1.

這也是一個很好的問題，提醒一下，我們在 10 月 1 日完成了交易。

So fast forward, 30 days, still very early days right now.

快進 30 天，現在仍然處於早期階段。

If you look at the state of the business, we are operating to marketing books, but we do have plans to combine the books come January 1, 2025 and continue to flesh out what marketing synergies that we are expecting to get a little bit more specific around what we're doing around M&T integration.

如果你看一下業務狀況，我們正在經營行銷書籍，但我們確實計劃在 2025 年 1 月 1 日合併書籍，並繼續充實我們期望的營銷協同效應，更具體地了解我們在 M&T 整合方面所做的工作。

As I mentioned, joining the trade books, name updates in the contracts needs to be consolidations, ETRM back office integration.

正如我所提到的，加入貿易帳簿、合約中的名稱更新需要合併、ETRM 後台整合。

The high-level answer to your question is we are beginning to optimize flows.

對你的問題的高層答案是我們正在開始優化流程。

We are trying to get more of our production to premium markets and we are beginning to have some early wins.

我們正嘗試將更多產品推向高端市場，並且已開始取得一些早期勝利。

If you start looking at Northeast app, there's a certain amount of equity gas that we were able to move from Chesapeake production and move it into some FD that SWN had which was idle.

如果你開始關注東北應用程序，你會發現我們可以從切薩皮克生產中轉移一定數量的權益天然氣，並將其轉移到 SWN 一些閒置的 FD 中。

In Haynesville, we have moved -- we have utilize some of this SWN FT to move Chesapeake equity gas to more premium markets using some specific pipes that we had access to.

在海恩斯維爾，我們已經利用部分 SWN FT，透過我們可以接觸到的一些特定管道，將切薩皮克的權益天然氣輸送到更高端的市場。

Similarly, we are in Southwest app using the Southwest app firm capacity to fill Chesapeake legacy pool sales.

同樣地，我們在西南航空應用程式中，使用西南航空應用程式公司的容量來填補切薩皮克航空遺留池的銷售。

So, all those are early wins.

所以，所有這些都是早期的勝利。

We are super excited at this point of time over time as we bring the two trade books together and integrate the two businesses together, then we'll share some more details around that.

我們對這一刻感到非常興奮，因為我們將把兩本貿易書合併在一起，並將兩項業務整合在一起，然後我們將分享更多相關細節。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe just as a follow-up on drilling and completion.

然後可能只是作為鑽井和完井的後續行動。

I know you all had highlighted really the opportunity to drive down cost at the drill bit given faster cycle times specifically in the Haynesville.

我知道大家都非常重視降低鑽頭成本的機會，特別是在海恩斯維爾，因為循環時間更快。

That was curious if you landed on a fluid loading design there.

如果您在那裡採用了流體加載設計，那就很好奇了。

I think there was a bit of a difference in how you all historically at Chesapeake looked at fluid loading versus how maybe Southwestern looked at it and if that's been incorporated into your outlook in 2025 and beyond in terms of cost savings?

我認為切薩皮克公司和西南公司對流體裝載的歷史看法可能有些不同，這是否已納入你們對 2025 年及以後的成本節約展望中？

Good morning, Matt.

早安，馬特。

Yeah, we absolutely did and I guess maybe to go back to our original synergy target, the $400 million a year, $130 million of that was attributed to what we described as drilling and completion synergies, but that was really entirely tied to drilling improvements.

是的，我們確實做到了，我想也許可以回到我們最初的協同目標，即每年 4 億美元，其中 1.3 億美元歸因於我們所描述的鑽井和完井協同效應，但這實際上完全與鑽井改進有關。

The reasons we decided to not at the time include any completion synergies is we just know how sensitive completion designs are to productivity and therefore wealth economics.

我們當時決定不考慮任何完井綜效的原因是我們知道完井設計對生產力以及財富經濟學的敏感度。

And so we really wanted to take our time, which we have now done through the integration planning process, to be able to combine the two companies' data sets, assess the implications of various design changes and its impact to productivity and therefore wealth economics.

因此，我們確實希望花時間，現在已經透過整合規劃流程完成了這項工作，以便能夠結合兩家公司的數據集，評估各種設計變更的含義及其對生產力和財富經濟的影響。

And so as we've come out now with an incremental $100 million, we have now included some synergies that we see associated with completion designs and some of the components of that.

因此，隨著我們現在增加 1 億美元，我們現在已經納入了與完井設計及其部分組成部分相關的一些協同效應。

You mentioned fluid intensity.

您提到了流體強度。

We will be dialing back fluid intensity a little bit, but on the flip side, we'll be increasing profit intensity we expect in the Haynesville going forward.

我們將稍微降低流體強度，但另一方面，我們將增加海恩斯維爾未來預期的利潤強度。

In addition, there are some savings we think we can realize by changing the perforation design as well, such as increasing our stage links and using an extreme limited entry completion design.

此外，我們認為透過改變穿孔設計也可以實現一些節約，例如增加階段連結和使用極為有限的進入完井設計。

So these are all things that the combined teams with these new data sets that we can look at in its entirety really start to think about how we optimize the program going forward.

因此，這些都是聯合團隊在擁有這些新資料集的情況下，可以全面查看並真正開始思考如何優化未來的程序。

So to Nick's earlier point, we're not done and we think as the teams continue to work together, we'll be able to push synergies even higher.

所以正如尼克之前所說，我們還沒有完成，我們認為隨著團隊繼續合作，我們將能夠進一步提高協同效應。

Thanks, all.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

[Kelly Ackerman, Bank of America].

[凱利·阿克曼，美國銀行]。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

This question also goes to the capital budget and maybe the optics of it.

這一問題也涉及資本預算及其光學方面。

Wondering if you can remind us how much capital Southwestern with capitalizing and then maybe offer some soft guide for interest expense in 2025.

想知道您是否可以提醒我們西南航空的資本化程度有多高，然後也許提供一些 2025 年利息支出的軟指南。

The rub here is that you've guys have done a great job and grinding down there capital number.

問題在於，你們已經完成了一項偉大的工作，並且降低了資本金額。

And I guess some are just trying to bridge from my previous reference point.

我想有些人只是想從我之前的參考點來理解。

Yes, hey Kaylie, I'll start with that.

是的，嘿凱莉，我就從那裡開始。

Let's start with the capitalization.

讓我們從大寫字母開始。

We'll be able to give you full details on how things were capitalized and what they look like under our program as we give full guidance next year.

我們將在明年提供全面指導，屆時我們將向您提供有關如何資本化以及在我們的計劃下它們是什麼樣子的完整詳細信息。

But it's not a huge number that comes out of CapEx.

但從資本支出來看，這並不是一個龐大的數字。

It's in the -- I would say, mid to low single-digit percentages of the capital number.

我想說，它在資本數字中所佔的比例處於中低個位數百分比。

So then on the next point about interest expense, our weighted average cost of interest is going to be in the 5.7 to 5.8 range.

那麼關於利息費用的下一個問題，我們的加權平均利息成本將在 5.7 到 5.8 範圍內。

And so you can take that across the debt stack and come up with a pretty good number there.

因此，您可以將其應用於整個債務堆疊並得出相當不錯的數字。

Got it.

知道了。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

My second one is just more housekeeping.

我的第二個任務只是做些家事。

Can you remind us how much production capacity that you currently have curtailed by basin and maybe offer any insight as to where you think the industry is?

您能否提醒我們，目前您按盆地削減了多少生產能力，並就您認為的行業現狀提供一些見解？

And I'll leave it there.

我就把它留在那裡了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, good morning.

是的，早安。

So for us internally, we today we have around 200 million cubic feet a day of net gas that's curtailed, and that's pretty evenly split across the Haynesville and the Northeast.

因此對我們內部而言，今天我們每天約有 2 億立方英尺的淨天然氣被削減，而且這部分天然氣在海恩斯維爾和東北地區分佈得相當均勻。

That 200 million a day.

每天2億。

That's really something that we look at day-in and day-out and just understanding how market conditions are -- you are going to be moving from nearby that by the day and by the weak just given local changes in demand.

這確實是我們日復一日關注的事情，只是為了了解市場狀況——你將每天從附近地區轉移，並且根據當地需求的變化而變化。

And so that's a pretty fluid number, just like we've been in the past will be responsive to market conditions.

所以這是一個相當不穩定的數字，就像我們過去一樣，會對市場狀況做出反應。

You asked about the industry number.

您詢問的是行業號碼。

That's I would say, a little bit harder to peg down.

我想說，這一點有點難以確定。

It's probably something we've shied away from commenting on directly just because we don't have direct access to individual companies data.

這可能是我們不願意直接評論的事情，因為我們無法直接取得單一公司的數據。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

I Appreciate it.

我非常感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

Yeah, good morning, Nick and his team.

是的，早上好，尼克和他的團隊。

Thanks for doing ourselves.

感謝你們的努力。

First question is just the enhanced capital return framework slide 13.

第一個問題只是增強資本回報架構第 13 頁。

Maybe you could spend some time talking about as you evaluated all the different strategies about allocating and return capital.

也許您可以花一些時間談論您對分配和回報資本的所有不同策略的評估。

Why do you optimize towards this design?

為什麼要針對這個設計進行最佳化？

And how should investors be thinking about the cadence of capital returns as we get into '25, now that you have a little more visibility through hedging program?

那麼，既然您現在透過對沖計畫獲得了更多的可見性，那麼在進入25年之際，投資人應該如何看待資本回報的節奏呢？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for that question, Neil.

是的，謝謝你的提問，尼爾。

This is Mohit.

這是 Mohit。

Let me start by first acknowledging that the two things that we are trying to address with this framework one is, as you said, current returning cash back to the shareholders, and number two would be reducing our net debt.

首先，我承認我們試圖透過這個框架解決兩個問題：一是如你所說，將當前現金回饋給股東，二是減少我們的淨債務。

So when we look at the framework that you outlined are referenced on slide 13.

因此，當我們查看您在第 13 張投影片中引用的框架時。

The first tranche of free cash flow will we are doing is reiterating our commitment to the base dividend, which we deem as sacrosanct.

我們正在進行的第一批自由現金流將重申我們對基本股利的承諾，我們認為這是神聖不可侵犯的。

So that is not changing.

所以這並沒有改變。

That will be roughly $500 million per annum.

這大約是每年 5 億美元。

The next tranche of free cash flow.

下一筆自由現金流。

If there's any, we acknowledge that the prior framework did not do enough to bring consistent in annual deleveraging efforts into place where we are trying to use the tranche to a free cash flow towards net debt reduction, which essentially formalizes the debt paydown post the merger, we have inherited the SWN debt, so we need to have a formal plan for paying that being down that debt.

如果有的話，我們承認，先前的框架不足以使年度去槓桿工作保持一致，我們正試圖利用部分自由現金流來實現淨債務削減，這實質上使合併後的債務償還正規化，我們繼承了 SWN 債務，因此我們需要有一個正式的計劃來償還這筆債務。

And finally, tranche three, which will be any remaining free cash flow would be inclined to do is provide a higher portion, which is 75% of that tranche three as opposed to 50% before of the remaining free cash flow, which will go towards additional returns to equity in the form of either buybacks or a variable dividend, which we will determine based on market condition.

最後，第三部分，即任何剩餘的自由現金流，將傾向於提供更高比例，即第三部分的 75%，而不是先前剩餘自由現金流的 50%，這些資金將以回購或可變股息的形式用於額外的股權回報，我們將根據市場情況確定。

So in summary, we see this enhanced framework has a strong way to reassure shareholders that we are committed to net debt paydown one, continuing to deliver shareholder returns.

總而言之，我們認為這個增強的框架可以有力地向股東保證，我們致力於償還淨債務，並繼續為股東帶來回報。

Thanks, Mohit.

謝謝，Mohit。

And just a follow-up on the macro, Nick you about your view of mid cycle over the years.

關於宏觀問題，Nick，請談談您對多年來中期週期的看法。

I am just curious how you think about the moving pieces here as we go to '25 and '26.

我只是好奇，當我們進入 25 年和 26 年時，您對這裡的變化有何看法。

You've got obviously some challenges ramp as we go through '26, but you've got global capacity on the other side.

當我們進入26年時，我們顯然會面臨一些挑戰，但另一方面，我們擁有全球產能。

And we're seeing power demand really surprised the upside because less spare capacity.

我們看到，由於閒置產能減少，電力需求確實出現意外上漲。

So it feels like there's a lot of moving pieces curious on your views.

因此感覺有很多令人感興趣的事發生在你身上。

And has this enthusiasm around AI and power demand changed your view of mid-cycle to the upside at all?

對於人工智慧和電力需求的熱情是否改變了您對中期週期的看法？

Yeah, good question, Neil.

是的，尼爾，你問得好。

So I would say, first thing, I very much agree there's a lot of moving pieces.

因此我想說，首先，我非常同意有很多變動因素。

And what that means to us is there will be volatility.

對我們來說，這意味著將會出現波動。

I think you touched on the key moving pieces, which are that LNG demand or LNG export capacity is growing rapidly.

我認為您觸及了關鍵的因素，即液化天然氣需求或液化天然氣出口能力正在快速成長。

Exactly how that demand manifests itself with a call on US gas as a function of demand internationally as well as competing supply internationally, those two things will continue to move around.

這種需求究竟如何體現在對美國天然氣的需求上，既取決於國際需求，也取決於國際供應競爭，這兩件事將持續改變。

Demand domestically is clearly growing and growing faster than I think a lot of models were predicting, I'll say, one to two years ago in the form of power generation.

國內需求顯然在成長，而且成長速度比我認為許多模型一到兩年前以發電量形式預測的要快。

So that's a pretty encouraging sign.

這是一個非常令人鼓舞的跡象。

A lot of the power gen around AI is going to take several more years to develop.

許多圍繞人工智慧的發電技術還需要幾年的時間來開發。

And so we expect that trend to be structural and long-term and provide a pretty important tailwind.

因此，我們預期這種趨勢將是結構性的、長期的，並提供相當重要的順風。

The only other thing I would comment on in that macro picture is that currently and continuing through, we believe, at least most of 2025, we're going to see supply be flat to down.

關於這一宏觀形勢，我唯一想評論的另一件事是，我們認為，目前以及到 2025 年的大部分時間裡，供應量將保持平穩甚至下降。

Right now, at this very current moment, you've seen supply tick up over the last -- actually just few days, but through October -- end of October, it's pretty common to see volumes tick up as people have managed their capital allocation for the year to bring more volumes on during the winter.

現在，就在目前這個時刻，你可以看到供應量在過去——實際上只是幾天——有所增加，但到 10 月——10 月底，供應量增加是很常見的，因為人們已經管理好了全年的資本配置，以便在冬季增加供應量。

It's something I think the industry has done a better job of aligning production with demand around winter weather.

我認為該行業在根據冬季天氣情況更好地協調生產和需求方面做得更好。

So that's not a surprising trend to see.

所以這種趨勢並不令人意外。

But if you think about the rig count that we have for gas in the lower 48, it's down quite a bit, and it's not positioned to grow.

但如果你想一下美國本土 48 個州的天然氣鑽井數量，你會發現它已經下降了很多，而且沒有成長的跡象。

The only offset being Permian will grow as Permian has capacity in transportation.

唯一的抵消因素是二疊紀盆地將會成長，因為二疊紀盆地具有運輸能力。

We saw the Matterhorn pipeline come online in October.

我們見證了馬特洪峰輸油管於十月正式投入營運。

It is filling up.

它正在填滿。

It is not quite full yet.

它還沒有完全充滿。

So we will see that capacity fill over the next several weeks and maybe months.

因此，我們將在未來幾週甚至幾個月內看到產能填滿。

And then after that, I think you see limited growth in the Permian until the next big pipe comes online.

在此之後，我認為在下一個大型管道投入使用之前，二疊紀盆地的增長將有限。

And you see the capital allocation around dry gas and rich gas areas driving production to be flat to down.

你會看到圍繞乾氣和富氣地區的資本配置導致產量持平或下降。

And we don't see a rig count change in the immediate future, given that the forward strip really doesn't encourage growth for anything that has a break-even anywhere around $3, you're kind of right there.

而且我們認為近期鑽井數量不會發生變化，考慮到遠期收益實際上不會促進任何盈虧平衡點在 3 美元左右的項目的增長，你的判斷是對的。

So I think you're seeing the industry show some discipline around how we allocate capital and learning from cycles and the trend that we believe we're observing is that supply is going to be flat to down and probably remain that way until you see a rig count change, which then has quite a lag time to it.

因此，我認為您會看到行業在如何分配資本和從週期中學習方面表現出一定的紀律，而我們認為我們觀察到的趨勢是，供應將保持平穩或下降，並且可能一直保持這種狀態，直到您看到鑽機數量發生變化，而這將會有一個相當長的滯後時間。

So the dynamics for supply-demand fundamentals for gas are very strong.

因此，天然氣的供需基本面動態非常強勁。

We are terrible predictors about when that shows up.

我們無法準確預測這種情況何時會發生。

Winter weather will have a huge impact on the timing of when supply and demand come together to change the character of the strip, but we definitely see it changing sometime in the relatively near future.

冬季天氣將對供需結合併改變地帶特徵的時間產生巨大影響，但我們肯定會看到它發生在不久的將來。

Thank you, Nick.

謝謝你，尼克。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nitin Kumar, Mizuho.

瑞穗的尼廷庫馬爾 (Nitin Kumar)。

You might have your phone on mute.

您可能將手機調成了靜音。

Sorry, good morning, guys.

抱歉，大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Obviously, there's a lot of things were kind of unpack with long-term efficiencies here.

顯然，這裡有很多事情需要解決，以提高長期效率。

So sorry to ask this, but in 2025, you said $2.7 billion.

很抱歉問這個問題，但您說的 2025 年是 27 億美元。

And I think, Nick, you mentioned long term in 2027 when all the synergies are under your belt, it's about 2.8. Do you have faced the gap in 2026.

尼克，我認為，你提到了長期目標，即 2027 年，當所有的協同效應都實現時，這個數字大約是 2.8。您是否面臨2026年的差距？

You should still has some DUCs by our math, but also you can probably adding activity.

根據我們的計算，您應該仍然有一些 DUC，但您也可能會添加活動。

So how has had a couple of trend of between '25 and '26 -- between '25 and '26 and '27?

那麼 2025 年至 2026 年之間，也就是 2025 年至 2026 年至 2027 年之間，有哪些趨勢呢？

Well, yes, it's a good question, Nitin.

嗯，是的，這是個好問題，尼廷。

I'll take that.

我接受。

Clearly, we're going to have some benefits heading into 2026 from the DUCs as you indicated.

顯然，正如您所說，到 2026 年，我們將從 DUC 中獲得一些好處。

And so, of course, we'll be drawing down that DUC capacity as we head to the end of the year.

因此，當然，臨近年底時我們將減少 DUC 容量。

So you are leveraging some of that productive capacity even in '26.

因此，即使在 26 年，你也可以利用部分生產能力。

As you mentioned, we'll be adding some activity back.

正如您所提到的，我們將重新添加一些活動。

And In fact, included in the 2025 plan, we start adding back a little bit of rig activity, which is accounted for in the $2.7 billion.

事實上，在 2025 年計畫中，我們開始增加少量鑽井活動，這筆資金已計入 27 億美元。

So you're going to be exiting '25 at around 12 rigs.

因此，您將在大約 12 個鑽孔機處退出 '25。

So you are assuming a little bit high higher activity that I think the other key thing to remember is that the synergy realization increases as well going into 2026.

因此，您假設的活動稍微高一些，我認為要記住的另一個關鍵事情是，到 2026 年，協同效應的實現也會增加。

And so our expectation for the '26 capital would be that were in line with what the $2.7 billion maybe even just slightly below, given the real estate patient pays for synergies.

因此，考慮到房地產患者為協同效應付出的代價，我們對 26 年資本的預期將與 27 億美元持平，甚至可能略低。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for that color.

謝謝你這個顏色。

The second part I want to maybe talk about is marketing.

我可能想談的第二部分是行銷。

When you announced the deal with Southwestern, you talked about the expanded scale of the company and you've got the investment grade.

當您宣布與西南航空的交易時，您談到了公司規模的擴大，並獲得了投資等級。

So maybe you can give us a little color on how the efforts to market gas to more premium price points is going and specifically, the markets focused on them direct supplied to AI data centers and power-generation.

所以也許您可以給我們稍微介紹一下將天然氣推向更高價位的努力進展如何，特別是專注於將天然氣直接供應給人工智慧資料中心和發電廠的市場。

Any thoughts on sort of how that market shaping up?

對於該市場的發展您有何看法？

Yes, Nitin, good morning.

是的，尼廷，早安。

Mohit here.

這裡是 Mohit。

Thanks for those questions.

感謝您提出這些問題。

I'll take the first one first.

我先選第一個。

As I said earlier, on the M&T side, we are beginning to optimize flow to premium markets.

正如我之前所說，在M＆T方面，我們開始優化流向高端市場的流程。

And we've had some early wins, which I outlined earlier in the call.

我們取得了一些早期的勝利，我在之前的電話會議中已經概述過。

You should remember that marketing is one side of the business where due to commercial sensitivity, we could not truly get into the contractual details until the merger had closed.

您應該記住，行銷是業務的一個方面，由於商業敏感性，我們在合併完成之前無法真正了解合約細節。

So we are still in the early innings.

因此我們仍處於早期階段。

It's October 1, the merger closed, and we are going through all the contracts and figuring out where the optimization lies.

今天是 10 月 1 日，合併結束，我們正在審查所有合同，並找出優化的地方。

But very encouraged by the early wins that we have had on that front.

但我們在該領域取得的早期勝利令我們深受鼓舞。

On the other part of your question, which is around the AI data center power demand, so again, those conversations have been happening in the background and we are in the process of consolidating the efforts that Legacy Southwestern was doing on its end and what Legacy Chesapeake was doing on our end.

關於你問題的另一部分，即關於人工智慧資料中心的電力需求，這些對話一直在後台進行，我們正在整合 Legacy Southwestern 和 Legacy Chesapeake 在我們這邊所做的努力。

It's fair to say there's lots of interest from all the different stakeholders involved in that value chain, whether it's developers, whether it's power generation companies, whether it's end users, and obviously the midstream and the upstream suppliers.

公平地說，該價值鏈中涉及的所有不同利益相關者都有濃厚的興趣，無論是開發商、發電公司、最終用戶，當然還有中游和上游供應商。

So trying to bring the consortium together, we are having tons of conversations with all the right stakeholders, and these things take a little bit of time, but we remain very encouraged and very engaged with all the right stakeholders.

因此，為了將聯盟整合在一起，我們正在與所有合適的利害關係人進行大量對話，這些事情需要一點時間，但我們仍然非常鼓舞並與所有合適的利害關係人保持密切聯繫。

Let me just add that one of the things we really like about our portfolio is the geographic diversity that allows us to be responsive to both of these really significant trends in demand in the industry, which is growing LNG export capacity as well as growing domestic power generation, and having gas across both Northeast Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Ohio areas of Appalachia, and then also in proximity to the Gulf Coast with the Haynesville, we're really uniquely positioned to respond to both our Haynesville gas can go directly south, it can move east.

我再補充一點，我們真正喜歡我們投資組合的一點是地理多樣性，這使我們能夠對行業中這兩個非常重要的需求趨勢做出響應，即不斷增長的液化天然氣出口能力以及不斷增長的國內發電量，而且我們的天然氣分佈在賓夕法尼亞州東北部和西弗吉尼亞州、俄亥俄州的阿巴拉契亞地區，而且靠近墨西哥灣沿岸的海恩斯

Obviously, Appalachia has its various outlets that move gas south, southeast and then some gas that can get West as well.

顯然，阿巴拉契亞有自己的各種出口，可以將天然氣輸送到南部、東南部，然後一些天然氣也可以輸送到西部。

So we really like the setup of this business and the scale of production that we have in our ability to meet multiple markets from a company that has the financial strength to create the customer relationships for very long periods of time.

因此，我們非常喜歡這項業務的設置和生產規模，我們有能力滿足多個市場的需求，並且公司擁有雄厚的財力來建立長期的客戶關係。

Thanks for the color guys.

感謝你們的顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Have a pretty big step change in capital efficiency on the pro forma outlook.

從預測前景來看，資本效率有相當大的變化。

But you also, we're seeing is on a stand-alone company.

但我們也看到，您是一家獨立的公司。

I'm curious where the bigger step change in efficiency is where the in the Haynesville or the Marcellus?

我很好奇，效率方面最大的變化是海恩斯維爾還是馬塞勒斯？

Yeah.

是的。

Good question, Josh.

問得好，喬希。

I mean, I would say it's pretty equitable between the two.

我的意思是，我會說這兩者之間是相當公平的。

Let's say, both of our operating teams in those areas have done a tremendous job this year.

可以這麼說，我們這兩個地區的營運團隊今年都做出了巨大的貢獻。

And so, we're seeing both operational efficiencies as well as conjunction with their supply chain teams, capturing deflation.

因此，我們看到了營運效率以及與供應鏈團隊的合作，捕捉了通貨緊縮的現象。

And so, I think it's equitable.

所以我認為這是公平的。

And my expectation is we continue to see these step changes through time as well.

我的期望是，我們也會隨著時間的推移繼續看到這些逐步的變化。

Got it.

知道了。

And then looking back at the standalone companies before the merger, you guys were has the capacity to produce over 8 bcfe per day.

然後回顧合併前的獨立公司，你們每天的產量能力超過 8 bcfe。

The outlook for next year is 7.

明年的預期為 7。

Do you see different scenario longer term where you get back to that level?

從長期來看，您是否認為會有不同的情況出現並回到這個水平？

Does that all come from the Haynesville because there's more growth there?

這一切都是因為海恩斯維爾，因為那裡發展得更快嗎？

I'm just curious how you're thinking about the longer-term production profiles company.

我只是好奇您對長期生產概況公司有何看法。

Yes.

是的。

Hey, Josh, it's a great question.

嘿，喬希，這是一個很好的問題。

We love the fact that this portfolio has the capacity to grow.

我們很高興看到這個投資組合具有成長能力。

And obviously, if there's growth volumes, it'll primarily come from the Haynesville.

顯然，如果產量有所成長，那主要來自於海恩斯維爾。

But we do have curtailed capacity across the Appalachian region right now as well.

但目前我們整個阿巴拉契亞地區的運力也受到限制。

So some of that volume can come back, and then true growth can come from the Haynesville.

因此，部分產量可以回升，真正的成長可以來自海恩斯維爾。

Choosing to be at seven BCF a day in 2025 is exactly that.

選擇在 2025 年達到每天 7 BCF 的目標正是如此。

It's a choice.

這是一個選擇。

And how and when we decide to bring volumes back is going to be directly informed by the macro conditions and seeing the market have a call for the gas that we can produce.

而我們如何以及何時決定恢復產量將直接取決於宏觀條件以及市場對我們所能生產的天然氣的需求。

And we expect that to happen.

我們期待這種情況發生。

But we also expect there to be continued volatility.

但我們也預期波動還會持續。

So what we've liked about what we did in 2024 is that we use the strengths of the company, which is our capital efficiency and our balance sheet strength to allow for a continued efficient development capital program that did not necessarily have to tie to the immediate delivery of volumes associated with that, so that we can better time the delivery of volumes to the market needs without having to ramp our capital program up and down to severely.

因此，我們對 2024 年所做的事情感到滿意的是，我們利用公司的優勢，即我們的資本效率和資產負債表實力，以實現持續高效的發展資本計劃，而該計劃不一定必須與立即交付相關的數量掛鉤，這樣我們就可以更好地安排交付量以滿足市場需求，而不必大幅增加和減少我們的資本計劃。

We expect to be able to continue that kind of decision making in the new company in the combined portfolio.

我們希望能夠在合併後的新公司中繼續做出這樣的決策。

And frankly, we expect to be able to do it better because scale helps, balance sheet strength helps, and you have to have an active hedging program.

坦白說，我們希望能夠做得更好，因為規模有幫助，資產負債表實力有幫助，而且你必須有一個積極的對沖計劃。

All of those things get better with our size and with our efficiencies of the synergies that we're bringing together.

隨著我們的規模和我們所實現的協同效應的提高，所有這些事情都會變得更好。

So it's a choice.

所以這是一個選擇。

We can ramp when and as needed.

我們可以根據需要隨時增加產量。

And we can ramp down when and as needed.

我們可以根據需要隨時減少產量。

And we have the complete flexibility to do that.

我們有完全的靈活性來做到這一點。

And I think we've shown a willingness to do that probably beyond what anybody else has shown.

我認為，我們表現出的意願可能比其他任何人都強烈。

Yeah, Josh, I'll just add onto that a little bit.

是的，喬希，我只想補充一點。

I just want to kind of reinforce the production profile that we show on slide 10.

我只是想強化我們在第 10 張投影片上展示的生產概況。

We've always said we want to be incredibly responsive to market conditions.

我們一直說，我們希望對市場狀況做出快速反應。

And we think the plan that we've laid out does that will be at our low point in production at around 6.4 BCF a day equivalent in Q4.

我們認為，按照我們制定的計劃，第四季度的產量將處於最低點，約為每天 64 億立方英尺。

And then as we begin to activate that for hotels, we start to activate the DUCs.

然後，當我們開始為飯店啟動該功能時，我們就開始啟動 DUC。

We do see a pretty steady growth trajectory throughout 2025.

我們確實看到 2025 年全年的成長軌跡相當穩定。

And of course, this is all kind of predicated on our view of the markets today.

當然，這一切都基於我們對當今市場的看法。

But most importantly, just want to point out, as we're exiting 2025, we anticipate being above 7 BCF a day will be around 7.2 .

但最重要的是，只想指出，隨著我們即將進入 2025 年，我們預計每天的產量將超過 7 BCF，約 7.2 。

And that's number -- that I'm not saying we're going to hold that flat, but it's really just pointing to the fact that we do have some underlying growth occurring and we think it matches fairly well.

這就是數字——我並不是說我們會保持這個水平，但這實際上只是表明我們確實正在發生一些潛在的增長，而且我們認為它匹配得相當好。

The demand trends that we see showing up throughout the course of the next 12 months.

我們預見未來 12 個月內將會出現的需求趨勢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

查爾斯·米德、約翰遜·賴斯。

Good morning Nick to you and the whole expand team there.

早安，尼克，向你和那裡的整個擴展團隊問好。

Nick, I wouldn't go back to you talked a lot you've got a lot of questions on the capital efficiency and the progression.

尼克，我不會再跟你說很多了，你對資本效率和進展有很多疑問。

It makes sense because as positive as your '25 guide is for CapEx, I think the bigger surprise to be and I think to a lot of people is about 2.8 number for 2006.

這是有道理的，因為儘管您的 25 年指南對於資本支出來說是積極的，但我認為更大的驚喜是，我認為對許多人來說，2006 年的數字約為 2.8。

I wanted to ask you maybe ask you had a question along these lines, but from a from a different angle, if I look at slide 9, and this goes back to a comment you made earlier in the year where you talked about '24 investing in working capital.

我想問您，也許您有類似的問題，但是從不同的角度來看，如果我看幻燈片 9，這可以追溯到您今年早些時候所說的“24 年投資營運資金”的評論。

And if I look at that, I look at your out your Doug, can you take out there for 4Q?

如果我看一下，我就會看看你的 Doug，你能在 4Q 中拿出來嗎？

I recognize there's a group numbers, but it looks to be like you've kind of have a -- on a net basis of working capital, kind of unproductive working capital investment in working capital of about $800 million at year end.

我知道這是一組數字，但看起來，在淨營運資本基礎上，年底的營運資本中非生產性營運資本投資約為 8 億美元。

And so maybe roll off $500 million of that in '25 and another $300 million in '26.

因此可能在25年投放5億美元，在26年再投放3億美元。

Actually you talked about I think Josh talked about this earlier where you get the benefit of the tilts in '25 and the DUCs in 26, but still issue, even though you're rolling in synergies is still the least to me in this framework, it looks like your longer term sustainable CapEx is actually something north of two ways I would like 2.9 or 3.

實際上您談到了，我認為 Josh 之前談到了這一點，您可以在 25 年獲得傾斜的好處，在 26 年獲得 DUC 的好處，但仍然存在問題，即使您可以在 25 年發揮協同效應，但對我來說在這個框架中仍然是最少的，看起來您的長期可持續資本支出實際上是我想要的 2.9 或 3 北部的兩種方式的資本支出。

So is that a fair framework?

那麼這是一個公平的框架嗎？

And if it is, what am I missing there?

如果是的話，我遺漏了什麼？

Well, yeah.

嗯，是的。

Hey, Charles, I'll take that.

嘿，查爾斯，我接受這個。

One of the things I just need to remind folks is that we have layered in synergies.

我只需要提醒大家的一件事是，我們已經實現了多層綜效。

And it's just important that as we work out throughout 2027, that those synergies start to show up in a more way -- a more heavy way.

重要的是，隨著我們在 2027 年開展工作，這些協同效應將開始以更大的方式、更重要的方式顯現出來。

And though the synergy today is going to be probably more geared towards, the P&L, specifically G&A, as you work out over the next three years, you become more efficient from a capital standpoint.

儘管現今的綜效可能更著重於損益表，特別是一般及行政開支，但隨著未來三年的推移，從資本角度來看，效率會更高。

And it's really those capital efficiencies that start to help and support the [2.8] number that we've rolled out yesterday.

正是這些資本效率開始幫助和支持我們昨天推出的 [2.8] 數字。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that, Josh.

謝謝你，喬希。

And then one other question.

還有一個問題。

There was a transaction announced this morning on Northeast Marcellus, where you guys are an operator.

今天早上，東北馬塞勒斯宣布了一項交易，你們是該交易的運營商。

And to me, that looked like a pretty attractive price to the seller.

對我來說，這對賣家來說是一個非常有吸引力的價格。

But I'm sure you guys were paying attention.

但我確信你們都在關注。

But I wondered if you could just offer any comment on how involved you were in the process or whether or your thoughts on the valuation or anything you'd like to share there?

但我想知道您是否可以就您參與過程的程度、您對估值的看法或任何您想分享的內容發表任何評論？

Now we don't have anything to add to that.

現在我們沒有什麼可以補充的了。

Obviously, we've been pretty focused on getting this merger closed and working on delivering the synergies that are in front of us today, which is our top priority.

顯然，我們一直非常專注於完成此次合併，並致力於實現今天面臨的協同效應，這是我們的首要任務。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Nick.

謝謝，尼克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Leo Mariani, ROTH.

裡奧·馬裡亞尼（Leo Mariani），羅斯（ROTH）。

I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the comments around maintenance CapEx here.

我只是想稍微跟進一下這裡有關維護資本支出的評論。

So I think you guys are kind of saying that the $2.8 billion is more kind of related to the 7 bcfe per day here.

所以我認為你們的意思是 28 億美元與這裡每天 7 bcfe 更相關。

I wanted to see if maybe we could get any kind of sensitivity around that.

我想看看我們是否能對此產生任何敏感性。

For example, if the production eventually grows to something more like 7.5 bcfe a day, would you have a maintenance CapEx level kind of associated with that?

例如，如果產量最終成長到每天 75 億標準煤左右，您是否會有一個與之相關的維護資本支出水準？

Yeah, we're going to hold off on giving anybody an exact number to tie to what your future production profiles would look like.

是的，我們不會向任何人提供確切的數字，以便他們了解您未來的生產狀況。

Obviously, if you're going to grow volumes up to 7.5 bcf a day, you'd spend a little bit more, but we still think it should be in the neighbourhood of 3 billion-ish, all else equal.

顯然，如果要將日產量增加到 75 億立方英尺，就需要多花一點錢，但我們仍然認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，產量應該在 30 億左右。

Of course, when you get to that point, probably all else will not be equal.

當然，當你到達那個點時，其他一切可能不再一樣。

So it's really hard for us to give you an exact number.

因此我們很難給出一個確切的數字。

But look, the efficiency here holds, and we're really pleased with how it sets up.

但是你看，這裡的效率保持不變，我們對它的設定非常滿意。

And we know we have the ability to grow this production profile when and how we choose.

我們知道，我們有能力在選擇的時間和方式下擴大產量。

Okay.

好的。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

Let, just like to ask you guys on the debt reduction target.

我只是想問你們關於減債目標的問題。

So I think you guys are talking about a $1.1 billion debt reduction by the end of 2025.

所以我認為你們談論的是到 2025 年底減少 11 億美元的債務。

I'm just curious, does that number include, I think Southwestern had around a $500 million revolver balance.

我只是好奇，這個數字是否包括，我認為西南航空有大約 5 億美元的循環信用餘額。

I think you guys paid off roughly at the close of the deal.

我認為你們在交易結束時大致已經付清了款項。

I'm just trying to get a sense that that's included in the $1.1 billion, which I guess would imply maybe an additional $600 million next year.

我只是想知道這是否包括在 11 億美元中，我猜這意味著明年可能會有額外的 6 億美元。

Just trying to understand how the debt gets paid down ours.

只是想了解我們的債務是如何償還的。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for that question, Leo.

謝謝你的提問，Leo。

This is Mohit.

這是 Mohit。

So let me give you a walk from the Chesapeake side.

那麼讓我帶你從切薩皮克灣那邊走一走。

We had $1 billion of roughly $1 billion of cash on hand.

我們手頭上有大約 10 億美元的現金。

You're correct that Southwestern at closing had $585 million drawn on the revolver, and that was all repaid in full and that the credit facility has been retired and paid off.

您說得對，西南航空在收盤時已從循環信貸中提取了 5.85 億美元，這些款項已全部償還，並且信用額度也已償還。

We also inherited $126 million of cash that Southwestern had on the balance sheet.

我們也繼承了西南航空資產負債表上的1.26億美元現金。

So that also comes into play.

因此這也發揮了作用。

When you think about forecasting what will happen into 4Q, will play, the employee -- will pay the employee severance costs will pay the transaction cost will be the dividend, which is the paid out in 4Q.

當您考慮預測第四季度會發生什麼時，員工將支付遣散費，支付交易成本，即股息，這是在第四季度支付的。

And when you factor all of that, and we predict that we'll end the quarter or end the year by 2024 with roughly $200 million to $300 million of cash on hand.

將所有這些因素考慮在內，我們預計到 2024 年本季末或年底，我們的現金餘額將達到約 2 億至 3 億美元。

To your other point, we have the swim 5.7% note coming due in January 2025.

關於您的另一點，我們有 5.7% 的游泳票據將於 2025 年 1 月到期。

So which is redeemable at par will utilize some of the cash on hand to redeem it at par somewhere along the course.

因此，可以按面值贖回的債券將利用部分手頭上的現金在某個時候按面值贖回。

But the good number to keep in mind would be $200 million to $300 million of cash ended the year.

但要記住的一個好數字是，年底的現金為 2 億至 3 億美元。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Scialla, Stephens.

邁克爾·西亞拉，史蒂芬斯。

Morning, everybody.

大家早安。

On to see how the '25 plan might change in a downside case if we had a mild winter market remains oversupplied, would you hold off on bringing the deferred tills back online?

看看如果我們遇到一個溫和的冬季市場但供應仍然過剩，'25 計劃在下行情況下將如何變化，您是否會推遲將延期收銀機重新上線？

Or how do you weigh that against the holding off on spending on the capital on the DUCs?

或者您如何權衡這一點與推遲對 DUC 資本支出之間的關係？

Yes, we'd certainly look to hold back on volumes in one way or another, either by spending less money in 2025 or holding back on the deferred activity from 2024, probably some combination thereof.

是的，我們肯定會考慮以某種方式來控制產量，要么在 2025 年減少開支，要么抑制 2024 年的延期活動，也可能是兩者結合。

But we don't want to do is continue to add to our deferred activity balance.

但我們不想做的是繼續增加我們的延期活動餘額。

So if we are not wanting to see volumes increase from these levels, we'll be pulling back capital at the same time.

因此，如果我們不希望看到交易量從這些水準增加，我們將同時撤回資本。

But now we have tons of flexibility and ready to be completely responsive to the market.

但現在我們擁有極大的靈活性並準備好完全響應市場。

Yes, Michael, just maybe add onto that.

是的，邁克爾，也許可以補充一點。

The other thing that the plan is reflecting is that we're going from 12 to 10 rigs in the first quarter of the year.

該計劃反映的另一件事是，我們在今年第一季將從 12 個鑽機數量減少到 10 個。

And again that decision is really around the fact that we feel that productive capacity that we've built is just simply adequate and we don't want to add onto that.

再次強調，我們做出這項決定的真正原因是，我們認為我們已經建立的生產能力已經足夠，我們不想再進一步增加。

And so as we work down the DUC inventory throughout the course of the year, what we'd assumed in the plan and included in the $2.7 billion starting to add rigs back in the second half of the year.

因此，當我們在全年減少 DUC 庫存時，我們在計劃中假設並包含在下半年開始增加鑽機的 27 億美元中。

And of course, in a weaker environment, we would just simply choose not to add those rigs back.

當然，在較弱的環境中，我們只是選擇不再增加這些鑽孔機。

That makes sense.

這很有道理。

Okay.

好的。

And then the low, if you walked us through a slide 13 on the new enhanced capital return framework.

然後，如果您向我們介紹第 13 張投影片中有關新的增強資本回報架構的內容。

Wanted to see, as things stand right now, how you think about the buyback versus variable dividend, just given where the stock prices today?

想看看，就目前情況而言，考慮到今天的股價，您如何看待回購與浮動股息？

Thanks for that question, Mike.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。

That's something that we constantly monitor.

這是我們持續監控的事情。

You can imagine we were restricted delivery transaction closed, but now that that's behind us, that's something that we constantly.

你可以想像我們被限制交付交易，但現在這已經成為過去，這是我們不斷努力的事情。

As I said, we evaluate you should think of it in terms of where we are in the cycle, right?

正如我所說的，當我們進行評估時，您應該根據我們所處的周期來考慮，對嗎？

So if you in the upcycle, prices are higher, the business is generating a lot more free cash flow.

因此，如果你處於上升週期，價格更高，企業就會產生更多的自由現金流。

And we like the variable dividend in that scenario because it introduces some element of rigor and discipline in terms of distributions back to the shareholders.

在這種情況下，我們喜歡可變股息，因為它在向股東分配方面引入了一些嚴格和紀律的因素。

And conversely, when you're in the down part of the cycle, which is where you can expect there to be some dislocation in the stock price versus where we think the valuation -- intrinsic value is and maybe that's the time to be more proactive on the buyback.

相反，當你處於週期的低迷階段時，你可以預期股價與我們認為的估值——內在價值——之間會出現一些錯位，也許那是我們採取更積極主動的回購的時候。

When you put the two things together in an upcycle, maybe doing more variable dividends in a downcycle, maybe you're doing more buybacks and blended between the two of them, you're kind of delivering something which is more -- which is less volatile and more even for the investors.

當你在上升週期中將這兩件事結合在一起時，也許在下降週期中進行更多可變股息，也許你會進行更多回購，並將兩者融合在一起，你會為投資者提供更多的東西——波動性更小，更均衡。

But that's roughly how we think about it.

但我們大致就是這麼想的。

There's obviously quite a bit more detail around it, but that would be that's how I would describe it or die level.

顯然，它還有相當多的細節，但這就是我描述它或死亡水平的方式。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Geoff Jay, Daniel Energy Partners.

傑夫·傑伊（Geoff Jay），丹尼爾能源合作夥伴。

Hey guys.

嘿，大家好。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

My question is kind of on the 2.8 maintenance CapEx that you threw out there.

我的問題是關於您提到的 2.8 維護資本支出。

What sort of activity level does that contemplate in terms of rig count?

從鑽孔機數量來看，這考慮了什麼樣的活動量？

In other words, I know you're going to 10 in the first quarter we take it back to 12 in fourth quarter.

換句話說，我知道你在第一季會達到 10，但在第四季我們會將其降低到 12。

Does that 2.8 contemplate like 12 or divested 14 you had in the third quarter?

這個 2.8 是否相當於第三季的 12 或剝離的 14？

Just kind of trying to understand, kind of what the initial thought I thought there.

只是想了解我最初的想法是什麼。

Yeah, Jeff, we would expect that $2.8 billion number that we'd be averaging in and around the 12 rigs.

是的，傑夫，我們預計 12 個鑽井平台的平均價值為 28 億美元。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then maybe to take the inverse of some of the other questions, what would you have to see in terms of market conditions or future strip to bring back those two regions dropping quicker?

然後也許可以反過來問其他一些問題，就市場條件或未來情況而言，您必須看到什麼才能使這兩個地區的經濟更快地回升？

Well, I think it's just all about the fundamentals, Geoff.

嗯，我認為這只是基本問題，傑夫。

I mean, we've talked all year about how we have looked at the decision to defer turning lines and defer completions and pointing to the fact that it's not just about a price on the screen.

我的意思是，我們整年都在談論如何看待推遲轉彎線和推遲完成的決定，並指出這不僅僅是螢幕上的價格問題。

It's about really looking at a number of different measures that we think are indicative of the underlying fundamentals of the market.

這其實是在檢視我們認為能夠反映市場基本面的一系列不同指標。

We really want to see that the market needs an incremental volume.

我們確實希望看到市場需要增量。

And when we believe that the market needs incremental volume, then we believe that bringing volume back should provide a more sustainable economic benefit to us.

當我們認為市場需要增量時，我們相信恢復量應該會為我們帶來更永續的經濟效益。

What we don't want to do is see a very short-term spike in price, respond to that, try to bring activity back, know that there's a much longer lag time and destroy capital in the process.

我們不想看到價格出現短期飆升，對此做出反應，試圖恢復活動，但要知道這其中會有更長的滯後時間，並在此過程中摧毀資本。

So we're really looking for the structural need for supply to be called for, and then we'll bring activity back when we see that.

因此，我們確實在尋找需要滿足的結構性供應需求，然後當我們看到這種情況時，我們就會恢復活動。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Phillips Johnston, Capital One Securities.

約翰斯頓（Phillips Johnston），Capital One Securities。

Just one for me to follow up for Mohit, just on the new return of capital framework and really the tranche to net debt reduction component.

我只想跟進 Mohit 的一個問題，關於新的資本回報框架，以及真正的淨債務減少部分。

I think you noted the idea is to pay down $500 million annually, not just next year, but also kind of going forward as well.

我想你已經注意到了，我們的想法是每年償還 5 億美元，不僅是明年，而且是以後都要償還。

Should we think about the $4.5 billion in net debt level target in the sub one times leverage ratio target of as kind of a point where you had sort of tilt the mix more towards a return to shareholders once those are achieved?

我們是否應該將 45 億美元的淨債務水準目標、低於一倍的槓桿率目標視為一種點，一旦實現這些目標，您就應該將組合更傾向於股東回報？

Or would you continue to ratchet down the list of $500 million a year per year debt payout?

還是你會繼續減少每年 5 億美元的債務償還？

Thanks for that question, Phillips.

謝謝你的提問，菲利普斯。

So just as a reminder, the $500 million number that we have laid out, that's for 2025, that's the number that we intend to re-peg every year.

所以提醒一下，我們列出的 5 億美元數字是針對 2025 年的，也是我們打算每年重新確定的數字。

So could be different in 2026, but at the very least our game plan is to get the absolute debt level down to $4.5 billion, as you pointed out.

所以 2026 年的情況可能會有所不同，但至少我們的計劃是將絕對債務水平降至 45 億美元，正如您所指出的那樣。

And just as a reminder, the way we view that is trying to get our gearing to one turn.

需要提醒的是，我們看待這個問題的方式是嘗試讓我們的傳動裝置轉動一圈。

So, it had mid-cycle pricing.

因此，它具有中期定價。

So, think of $3 per MCF gas price at that point, business generates around $4.5 billion or so of EBITDA.

因此，假設此時天然氣價格為每 MCF 3 美元，企業將產生約 45 億美元左右的 EBITDA。

So, we are thinking of that's where it begs the $4.5 billion of debt target that we have.

所以，我們認為這就是我們設定的 45 億美元債務目標的必要性所在。

The comfort I would give you is we are that strike trying to strike the right balance between trying to get cash back to the shareholders.

我想給你們的安慰是，我們正努力在向股東返還現金和爭取適當的平衡之間取得平衡。

And hence, the earlier comment about the deeming, the base dividend is sacrosanct, but then also prioritizing debt paydown, which is extremely important given that we have the pro forma company has a higher debt than legacy Chesapeake did.

因此，先前關於視為基本股息不可侵犯的評論是，但同時也優先考慮償還債務，這一點極為重要，因為我們預計公司的債務高於傳統的切薩皮克公司。

So, we need to address the debt stack that's in front of us.

所以，我們需要解決擺在我們面前的債務。

And with this new framework, we are -- I think we are addressing both of those two drivers and we'd like to reassure the shareholders and our credit as well that both things are a priority for us.

有了這個新框架，我認為我們正在解決這兩個驅動因素，我們也想向股東和我們的信譽保證，這兩件事都是我們的優先事項。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program.

今天節目的問答環節到此結束。

I'd now like to hand the program back to Nick Dell'Osso for any further remarks.

現在我想將節目單交還給 Nick Dell'Osso，以便他可以做出進一步的評論。

Well, thanks very much.

好吧，非常感謝。

I appreciate everybody taking the time to dial in this morning.

我感謝大家今天上午花時間撥打電話。

Obviously, we've got a lot of talk about, and we'll be around to answer any questions anybody has any follow-ups and will be out on the road over the coming weeks to meet with many of you on person can be more excited about the way that the market is setting up for expand energy as we get into the end of '24 and 2025, we have our hands full with integration and achieving these synergies.

顯然，我們有很多事情要談，我們會隨時回答任何人的後續問題，並將在未來幾週內外出與你們中的許多人見面，你們會對市場為擴大能源所做的準備方式感到更加興奮，隨著我們進入 24 年底和 2025 年底，我們全力以赴進行整合並實現這些協同效應。

But the path to do all of that, we believe is very clear and we're ready to go.

但我們相信，實現所有這些目標的途徑非常清晰，我們已做好準備。

So, look forward to giving you guys updates on our progress as we get through next year and seeing you on the road.

因此，我們期待在明年向你們通報我們的進展情況，並在路上與你們見面。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation at today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

該計劃確實結束了。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。