ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Etsy fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 financial results conference call.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Etsy 2015 年第四季度和全年財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce you host for today's conference, Jennifer Beugelmans, Vice President of Investor Relations.

提醒一下，此通話正在錄音中。我現在想向您介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Beugelmans。

You may begin, ma'am.

你可以開始了，女士。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Welcome to Etsy's fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Chad Dickerson, CEO, and Kristina Salen, CFO.

歡迎參加 Etsy 2015 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天加入我的是首席執行官查德·迪克森 (Chad Dickerson) 和首席財務官克里斯蒂娜·薩倫 (Kristina Salen)。

Before we get started, just a reminder that our remarks today include forward-looking statements relating to our financial performance and results of operations, business strategy, guidance, mission, product road map and potential future growth. Our actual results may be materially different. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are described in our press release today and in our 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 3, 2015. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we don't have any obligation to update them.

在我們開始之前，請提醒我們今天的評論包括與我們的財務業績和運營結果、業務戰略、指導、使命、產品路線圖和潛在未來增長相關的前瞻性陳述。我們的實際結果可能大不相同。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，這些在我們今天的新聞稿和 2015 年 11 月 3 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 中有所描述。我們在此次電話會議上做出的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們的信念和今天的假設，我們沒有義務更新它們。

Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's press release, which you can find on our Investor Relations website. A link to the replay of this call will be available there and, if you prefer to access a replay via phone, you can find that information in the press release as well.

同樣在電話會議期間，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的新聞稿中包含非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 措施的對賬，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到該新聞稿。此處將提供此通話重播的鏈接，如果您更喜歡通過電話訪問重播，您也可以在新聞稿中找到該信息。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chad.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給乍得。

Chad?

乍得？

Thanks, Jennifer.

謝謝，詹妮弗。

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm excited to talk to you about the progress Etsy has made in 2015, our plans for 2016 and our financial goals through 2018.

大家下午好。我很高興與您談談 Etsy 在 2015 年取得的進展、我們 2016 年的計劃以及我們到 2018 年的財務目標。

In the fourth quarter, our GMS was more than $741 million; and our revenue was nearly $88 million. For the full year, GMS reached nearly $2.4 billion and revenue was more than $273 million. We believe our strong results reflect the vitality of Etsy's community and our team's strong execution.

第四季度，我們的 GMS 超過 7.41 億美元；我們的收入接近 8800 萬美元。全年，GMS 達到近 24 億美元，收入超過 2.73 億美元。我們相信我們的強勁業績反映了 Etsy 社區的活力和我們團隊的強大執行力。

Throughout 2015, our community continued to grow. And we ended this year with more than 24 million active buyers and nearly 1.6 million active sellers. In 2015, we continue to put the building blocks in place that we believe will set us up for sustainable long-term growth.

整個 2015 年，我們的社區繼續發展壯大。今年年底，我們擁有超過 2400 萬活躍買家和近 160 萬活躍賣家。 2015 年，我們將繼續構建基石，我們相信這些基石將為我們實現可持續的長期增長奠定基礎。

Buyers on Etsy's platform remain uniquely loyal to the brand. In 2015, 81% of our GMS came from repeat purchases made by new, retained and reactivated buyers. This was up from 78% in 2014.

Etsy 平台上的買家對該品牌保持著獨特的忠誠度。 2015 年，我們 81% 的 GMS 來自新買家、保留買家和重新激活買家的重複購買。這高於 2014 年的 78%。

Also in 2015, approximately 47% of our active buyers made two or more purchases in the previous 12 months, up slightly from 2014. We believe that these two data points shed important light on our long-term growth opportunity.

同樣在 2015 年，大約 47% 的活躍買家在過去 12 個月內進行了兩次或更多次購買，略高於 2014 年。我們相信這兩個數據點對我們的長期增長機會具有重要意義。

First, we know that Etsy buyers are loyal and have continued to make repeat purchases other a long period of time. Second, with fewer than 50% of our active buyers making multiple purchases in a single year, over the long term we believe we have substantial opportunity to drive engagement, which ultimately should lead to increased purchase frequency.

首先，我們知道 Etsy 買家是忠誠的，並且在很長一段時間內繼續重複購買。其次，我們只有不到 50% 的活躍買家在一年內進行多次購買，從長遠來看，我們相信我們有大量機會來推動參與，最終應該會導致購買頻率增加。

Our community of sellers and buyers, who are so important to our long-term success, continue to show their loyalty to Etsy. Kristina will provide you with new 2012 seller and buyer cohort data that further demonstrate their commitment to our platform. With approximately 90% of our traffic coming from organic channels, Etsy's brand clearly resonates with buyers.

我們的賣家和買家社區對我們的長期成功至關重要，他們繼續表現出對 Etsy 的忠誠度。 Kristina 將為您提供 2012 年新的賣家和買家隊列數據，進一步證明他們對我們平台的承諾。我們大約 90% 的流量來自有機渠道，Etsy 的品牌顯然引起了買家的共鳴。

During our third-quarter earnings call, we talked about our strategy to implement a multi-channel holiday campaign to grow brand awareness beyond our organic channels and to drive engagement throughout the fourth-quarter holiday season. We ran a coordinated campaign across paid and non-paid channels that helped our sellers have a great holiday season. We saw strong returns on our digital marketing budget and, as Kristina will describe, paid GMS growth that significantly outpaced organic GMS growth.

在我們第三季度的財報電話會議上，我們談到了我們實施多渠道假日活動的戰略，以在我們的有機渠道之外提高品牌知名度，並在整個第四季度假日季節推動參與。我們在付費和非付費渠道中開展了協調一致的活動，幫助我們的賣家度過了一個愉快的假期。我們看到了數字營銷預算的強勁回報，而且正如 Kristina 所描述的那樣，付費 GMS 增長明顯超過有機 GMS 增長。

More importantly, our overall GMS growth accelerated as we moved through the holiday season in November and December, evidence of a successful brand campaign. For the first time ever, we ran a global holiday campaign that featured merchandise pages and gift guides across key categories and was coordinated across mobile apps, desktop and mobile web. We ran a cost-effective video ad on Facebook and YouTube and were featured on Ellen DeGeneres Show's 12 Days of Christmas segment. We complemented our brand campaign with a robust email and social media effort that included nearly 20 million push notifications, nearly 900 million emails and Facebook and Instagram social media campaigns.

更重要的是，隨著我們在 11 月和 12 月度過假期，我們的整體 GMS 增長加速，這是品牌活動成功的證據。我們有史以來第一次開展了一項全球假日活動，其中包含跨關鍵類別的商品頁面和禮品指南，並在移動應用程序、桌面和移動網絡之間進行協調。我們在 Facebook 和 YouTube 上投放了具有成本效益的視頻廣告，並在 Ellen DeGeneres Show 的 12 Days of Christmas 片段中亮相。我們通過強大的電子郵件和社交媒體活動來補充我們的品牌活動，其中包括近 2000 萬條推送通知、近 9 億封電子郵件以及 Facebook 和 Instagram 社交媒體活動。

2015 was a strong year of growth for Etsy. And I believe we're executing the right strategy to build sustainable growth for the long term. Let me take the next few minutes to talk about what we have recently achieved in each of our key initiatives and some of the upcoming milestones that will be indicative of our continued forward progress.

2015 年是 Etsy 強勁增長的一年。而且我相信我們正在執行正確的戰略來建立長期的可持續增長。讓我在接下來的幾分鐘內談談我們最近在每項關鍵舉措中取得的成就，以及一些即將到來的里程碑，這些里程碑將表明我們將繼續取得進展。

Let's start with Etsy Every Day. Mobile is at the heart of this initiative. And in just one year, we improved the Etsy mobile experience from end to end. We developed products and tools that allow our buyers and sellers to connect and transact more seamlessly across multiple devices, countries and currencies.

讓我們從 Etsy Every Day 開始吧。移動是該計劃的核心。在短短一年內，我們從頭到尾改進了 Etsy 移動體驗。我們開發了產品和工具，讓我們的買家和賣家能夠跨多種設備、國家和貨幣更無縫地連接和交易。

Our top focus in 2015 was to help buyers find and use our beautiful Etsy apps, and connect them directly to an easier and more fun than ever mobile experience. We believe this foundational work improved the experience across the buyer journey and contributed directly to our app GMS growth, which grew well over 50% in 2015. Our first step included the work we did around deep linking and app indexing, which allows us to connect shoppers directly to our apps. Once in the app, we made it easy to get started with social sign-up and sign-in via Facebook and Google.

我們在 2015 年的首要任務是幫助買家找到並使用我們漂亮的 Etsy 應用程序，並將他們直接連接到比以往任何時候都更輕鬆、更有趣的移動體驗。我們相信這項基礎工作改善了整個買家旅程的體驗，並直接促進了我們應用 GMS 的增長，2015 年增長超過 50%。我們的第一步包括圍繞深度鏈接和應用索引所做的工作，這使我們能夠連接購物者直接訪問我們的應用程序。進入應用程序後，我們可以輕鬆開始通過 Facebook 和 Google 進行社交註冊和登錄。

We also introduced an important update called Exploratory Search. This enhancement helps buyers more easily find the items they're looking for on Etsy by making search results and navigation more intuitive to buyers, who can now browse by feature or product type. Finally, we expanded the checkout experience using Etsy's Direct Checkout platform, which now offers integrated Apple Pay, Google Wallet, PayPal and Express Checkout payment options. We believe these four improvements, and others, lead to our 4.5 star rating in the Apple app store, up from roughly 2.5 stars prior to this work. And also contributed to the continued growth of app downloads, which reached 31.8 million as of December 31, 2015.

我們還引入了一個名為探索性搜索的重要更新。此增強功能使搜索結果和導航對買家來說更加直觀，買家現在可以按功能或產品類型瀏覽，從而幫助買家更輕鬆地在 Etsy 上找到他們想要的商品。最後，我們使用 Etsy 的 Direct Checkout 平台擴展了結賬體驗，該平台現在提供集成的 Apple Pay、Google Wallet、PayPal 和 Express Checkout 支付選項。我們相信這四項改進以及其他改進使我們在 Apple 應用程序商店中獲得 4.5 星評級，高於這項工作之前的大約 2.5 星。並且還促進了應用下載量的持續增長，截至 2015 年 12 月 31 日達到 3180 萬次。

While we're still in the early innings on mobile, we believe that we have made important progress in a relatively short period of time. The impact of this work is best seen in the year-over-year narrowing of the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS. We began to see this in the third quarter, and it continued in the fourth quarter.

雖然我們仍處於移動領域的早期階段，但我們相信我們已經在相對較短的時間內取得了重要進展。這項工作的影響最明顯地體現在移動訪問和移動 GMS 之間的差距逐年縮小。我們在第三季度開始看到這一點，並在第四季度繼續。

In the fourth quarter, 61% of our visits and 44% of our GMS came to Etsy through a mobile device. We believe we can continue to close the gaps between mobile visits and mobile GMS, and benefit from the emerging trends in mobile commerce. Our efforts in mobile in 2015 moved the ball forward for Etsy and provided strong momentum as we head into 2016.

第四季度，我們 61% 的訪問量和 44% 的 GMS 訪問量是通過移動設備訪問 Etsy 的。我們相信我們可以繼續縮小移動訪問和移動 GMS 之間的差距，並從移動商務的新興趨勢中受益。 2015 年我們在移動領域的努力推動了 Etsy 的發展，並為我們進入 2016 年提供了強勁的動力。

This year we plan to launch even more mobile products, tools and services that address the needs of our diverse community of sellers and buyers. As our teams continue to execute on our exciting 2016 product road map, you should expect to see more enhancements that helps Etsy buyers connect with sellers in new ways. And enable them to more easily find the unique item they're searching for at just the right time.

今年，我們計劃推出更多移動產品、工具和服務，以滿足我們多元化的賣家和買家社區的需求。隨著我們的團隊繼續執行令人興奮的 2016 年產品路線圖，您應該期待看到更多增強功能，幫助 Etsy 買家以新的方式與賣家聯繫。並使他們能夠在正確的時間更輕鬆地找到他們正在搜索的獨特項目。

Turning to our international initiative to build more local marketplaces globally, we made our first international sale in our first week of business over a decade ago. And Etsy's global business has grown since then. Even with that growth, we believe we're only at the beginning when it comes to our international strategy.

談到我們在全球範圍內建立更多本地市場的國際計劃，我們在十多年前開展業務的第一周就進行了首次國際銷售。從那時起，Etsy 的全球業務不斷發展。即使有這種增長，我們相信我們的國際戰略才剛剛起步。

In the fourth quarter, 29.2% of our GMS was from international sales, roughly flat with the third quarter. As we've discussed in previous quarters, currency has a direct translational impacts on our results and, we believe, an indirect impact on the behavior of international buyers. We're working hard to offset these macro currency challenges by building local marketplaces and ecosystems.

第四季度，我們 GMS 的 29.2% 來自國際銷售，與第三季度大致持平。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣，貨幣對我們的結果有直接的轉化影響，我們認為，對國際買家的行為有間接影響。我們正在努力通過建立本地市場和生態系統來抵消這些宏觀貨幣挑戰。

Our continued strong growth in the UK reflects the early success of this strategy. In the fourth quarter, nearly half the GMS in the UK was from UK buyers purchasing from UK sellers, evidence that we're building a local marketplace within the country. To give you some perspective, in the US our most mature market, approximately 78% of GMS, is from transactions between US buyers and sellers.

我們在英國的持續強勁增長反映了這一戰略的早期成功。在第四季度，英國近一半的 GMS 來自英國買家從英國賣家那裡購買，這證明我們正在該國建立本地市場。給你一些觀點，在美國，我們最成熟的市場，大約 78% 的 GMS，來自美國買家和賣家之間的交易。

Purchases by UK buyers from UK sellers grew more than 69% year over year, nearly seven times the growth rate of purchases made by UK buyers and sellers outside of the UK in the quarter. We believe that new enhancements, like the boost of domestic items within Search, which we launched in the UK in the fourth quarter, encourage this activity and was particularly helpful during the holiday season.

英國買家從英國賣家那裡購買的商品同比增長超過 69%，幾乎是本季度英國買家和賣家在英國以外地區購買商品的增長率的七倍。我們認為，新的增強功能（例如我們於第四季度在英國推出的搜索中國內商品的提升）鼓勵了這種活動，並且在假期期間特別有幫助。

GMS between international buyers and sellers in the same country is one of our smallest GMS buckets. So we believe we have a substantial greenfield opportunity to grow local marketplaces internationally. In 2016, we'll continue to invest in local marketing content and program tools to expand our international community and broaden our global platform. Great examples of these efforts already underway are programs like Etsy Resolution and Etsy Made Local.

同一國家/地區的國際買家和賣家之間的 GMS 是我們最小的 GMS 桶之一。因此，我們相信我們有大量的綠地機會在國際上發展本地市場。 2016 年，我們將繼續投資於本地營銷內容和程序工具，以擴大我們的國際社區並拓寬我們的全球平台。 Etsy Resolution 和 Etsy Made Local 等項目已經在進行中，這些努力的重要例子。

Etsy Resolution is our seller acquisition campaign aimed at driving new seller growth in our international markets. We launched this four-week mentoring program at the end of January. And more than 26,000 participants signed up within the first week. Etsy Made Local is a series of local markets organized by Etsy seller teams. Our Etsy made local events in Australia were particularly successful and attracted 65,000 people across the country.

Etsy Resolution 是我們的賣家收購活動，旨在推動我們國際市場上新賣家的增長。我們在 1 月底啟動了這個為期 4 週的指導計劃。第一周內就有超過 26,000 名參與者報名參加。 Etsy Made Local 是由 Etsy 賣家團隊組織的一系列本地市場。我們在澳大利亞舉辦的 Etsy 本地活動特別成功，吸引了全國 65,000 人。

Turning now to our high-impact Seller Services, which represented 54% of our revenue in the fourth quarter.

現在轉向我們具有高影響力的賣家服務，該服務占我們第四季度收入的 54%。

You may recall that we launched the first of our three Seller Services late in 2011. And in less than five years, our three services now make up the majority of our revenue base. We believe this rapid growth demonstrates our ability to address the pain points that sellers encounter, whether they're just starting out or trying to grow. We intend to continue to grow Seller Services revenue by expanding the geographic reach of existing services, enhancing the functionality of our existing services and building new services.

您可能還記得我們在 2011 年底推出了我們的三項賣家服務中的第一項。在不到五年的時間裡，我們的三項服務現在佔了我們收入基礎的大部分。我們相信這種快速增長表明我們有能力解決賣家遇到的痛點，無論他們是剛剛起步還是試圖成長。我們打算通過擴大現有服務的地理範圍、增強現有服務的功能和構建新服務來繼續增加賣家服務收入。

We have two recent examples that demonstrate our execution on this strategy. At the end of October, we enhanced the functionality of Direct Checkout by fully integrating PayPal into our service, and making it even easier for buyers and sellers around the world to seamlessly transact. Following this integration, we saw Direct Checkout revenue growth accelerate in the fourth quarter. And in early 2016, we enhanced Direct Checkout even further by expanding into an additional 12 countries and integrating Apple Pay into our Express Checkout option.

我們有兩個最近的例子來證明我們對這一戰略的執行。 10 月底，我們通過將 PayPal 完全集成到我們的服務中，增強了 Direct Checkout 的功能，讓世界各地的買家和賣家能夠更輕鬆地進行無縫交易。在此次整合之後，我們看到 Direct Checkout 收入在第四季度加速增長。在 2016 年初，我們通過擴展到另外 12 個國家並將 Apple Pay 集成到我們的 Express Checkout 選項中，進一步增強了 Direct Checkout。

As we look ahead to 2016, we intend to launch a new seller service. While we're not announcing the specifics of this new service today, we remain focused on helping our sellers with the business-related tasks such as inventory management, shipping, customer service, marketing and accounting. As we outlined in our IPO perspective, for every hour an Etsy seller spends making her products, she spends another on these tasks. And we want to help our sellers find more time to create.

展望 2016 年，我們打算推出一項新的賣家服務。雖然我們今天沒有公佈這項新服務的具體細節，但我們仍然專注於幫助我們的賣家處理與業務相關的任務，例如庫存管理、運輸、客戶服務、營銷和會計。正如我們在 IPO 觀點中概述的那樣，Etsy 賣家每花一個小時來製作她的產品，她就會在這些任務上花費另一個小時。我們希望幫助我們的賣家找到更多時間來創作。

So our product road map is focused on services that will help her manage these types of tasks, increase velocity of our Marketplace and, at scale, provide an attractive profit opportunity for Etsy, which we can reinvest back into our business and our community.

因此，我們的產品路線圖專注於幫助她管理這些類型任務的服務，提高我們市場的速度，並大規模地為 Etsy 提供有吸引力的盈利機會，我們可以將其重新投資到我們的業務和社區中。

As we think about our longer-term road map for Seller Services, we're looking at opportunities to support our sellers wherever and however they choose to bring their products to market. As we've said before, based on our surveys and research, we know that more than 50% of our sellers sell in channels other than Etsy, even though Etsy is their largest source of income. Other channels include craft fairs, their own websites and retail outlets, just to name a few.

當我們考慮我們的賣家服務長期路線圖時，我們正在尋找機會來支持我們的賣家，無論他們選擇以何種方式將他們的產品推向市場。正如我們之前所說，根據我們的調查和研究，我們知道超過 50% 的賣家在 Etsy 以外的渠道進行銷售，儘管 Etsy 是他們最大的收入來源。其他渠道包括工藝品展覽會、他們自己的網站和零售店，僅舉幾例。

In the same way that these other channels provide new opportunities for them to sell their products, they also add to the administrative workload. We believe we can develop tools and services to help our sellers better manage these multiple sales channels. Over time, this presents a significant opportunity for Etsy to enhance the value of our platform for our sellers and to expand our addressable market opportunity.

與這些其他渠道為他們銷售產品提供新機會一樣，它們也增加了管理工作量。我們相信我們可以開發工具和服務來幫助我們的賣家更好地管理這些多個銷售渠道。隨著時間的推移，這為 Etsy 提供了一個重要的機會，可以為我們的賣家提升我們平台的價值，並擴大我們可尋址的市場機會。

Finally, I want to touch on our efforts to expand the Etsy economy, which focus on broadening the impact of our platform by bringing new constituents into our community. We have talked to you before about Etsy Manufacturing and Etsy Wholesale, and our long-term vision for their contribution to our ecosystem. As we announced last quarter, we launched Etsy Manufacturing in direct response to feedback from our sellers, who told us they wanted to grow their businesses but were having difficulty finding production partners with similar values.

最後，我想談談我們為擴大 Etsy 經濟所做的努力，重點是通過將新成員引入我們的社區來擴大我們平台的影響力。我們之前與您討論過 Etsy Manufacturing 和 Etsy Wholesale，以及我們對它們對我們生態系統的貢獻的長期願景。正如我們在上個季度宣布的那樣，我們推出 Etsy Manufacturing 是為了直接回應我們賣家的反饋，他們告訴我們他們想發展自己的業務，但很難找到具有相似價值觀的生產合作夥伴。

Through our platform, these sellers can now connect with values-aligned manufacturers that range from individuals to emerging start ups to decades-old family-run factories. It's still early days; and to date, we have received around 700 applications from manufacturers to join the Marketplace. Approximately 25% of those applicants have actually been current Etsy sellers who are offering to help other sellers produce their products.

通過我們的平台，這些賣家現在可以與價值觀一致的製造商建立聯繫，這些製造商從個人到新興的初創企業再到擁有數十年曆史的家族企業。現在還為時尚早；迄今為止，我們已收到來自製造商的大約 700 份申請加入 Marketplace。這些申請人中大約有 25% 實際上是 Etsy 的現有賣家，他們願意幫助其他賣家生產他們的產品。

Throughout 2015, we also reached core milestones that we believe will help make Etsy Wholesale an important tool for our sellers in the years to come. First, we exited 2015 with nearly 11,000 retailers. And more than 4,500 sellers signed up to participate in Wholesale. Our goal is to make Wholesale more accessible to creative entrepreneurs and to support these smaller independent retailers as creative business owners.

在整個 2015 年，我們還實現了核心里程碑，我們相信這將有助於使 Etsy Wholesale 在未來幾年成為我們賣家的重要工具。首先，我們在 2015 年結束時擁有近 11,000 家零售商。超過 4,500 名賣家報名參加 Wholesale。我們的目標是讓創意企業家更容易獲得批發，並支持這些較小的獨立零售商作為創意企業主。

Second, we introduced the Etsy Wholesale retailer commitments with our larger retailer partners, Land of Nod, Lou and Grey, Whole Foods and our newest partner, Macy's Herald Square, with whom we launched a new Etsy shop on January 28, 2016. These commitments are focused on supporting our seller community by reducing the operational and financial challenges they face when working with larger retailers.

其次，我們與我們的大型零售商合作夥伴 Land of Nod、Lou 和 Grey、Whole Foods 以及我們最新的合作夥伴 Macy's Herald Square 一起推出了 Etsy 批發零售商承諾，我們於 2016 年 1 月 28 日與他們合作推出了一家新的 Etsy 商店。這些承諾專注於通過減少與大型零售商合作時面臨的運營和財務挑戰來支持我們的賣家社區。

While I'm proud of what we have accomplished to date, the Etsy team and I are really focused execution, and excited about the opportunities and milestones yet to come. We believe we have the right strategy in place and passionate leaders to execute on it. We have made prudent investments to maximize the impact of this strategy. We also believe that we have an unrivaled understanding of the needs of creative entrepreneurs, which will allow us to grow with each of them, supporting their individual needs.

雖然我為我們迄今為止所取得的成就感到自豪，但 Etsy 團隊和我真正專注於執行，並對即將到來的機會和里程碑感到興奮。我們相信我們擁有正確的戰略和熱情的領導者來執行它。我們進行了謹慎的投資，以最大限度地發揮這一戰略的影響。我們還相信，我們對創意企業家的需求有著無與倫比的理解，這將使我們能夠與他們每個人一起成長，支持他們的個人需求。

All of these factors gives us confidence in our long-term growth potential and our ability to deliver value to all of our stakeholders. In 2016, to recap, this means a road map that includes products that will continue to encourage buyers to engage, browse, search, and discover unique items. Platform enhancements that will make it even easier for buyers and sellers to seamlessly and quickly transact. And a new Seller Service that solves a pain point and moves us down the path toward our longer-term goal of supporting our sellers wherever they pursue commerce. We'll be also be launching new tools and products to continue to support our international strategy to build local marketplaces and expand the Etsy economy.

所有這些因素使我們對我們的長期增長潛力和我們為所有利益相關者創造價值的能力充滿信心。回顧一下，在 2016 年，這意味著包含產品的路線圖將繼續鼓勵買家參與、瀏覽、搜索和發現獨特的項目。平台增強功能將使買賣雙方更容易無縫快速地進行交易。以及一項新的賣家服務，它解決了一個痛點，並推動我們朝著我們的長期目標前進，即支持我們的賣家，無論他們在哪裡從事商業活動。我們還將推出新的工具和產品，以繼續支持我們建立本地市場和擴展 Etsy 經濟的國際戰略。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kristina to walk you through our 2015 results and provide you with a bit more context on our three-year financial guidance.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Kristina，向您介紹我們 2015 年的結果，並為您提供更多關於我們三年財務指導的背景信息。

Kristina?

克里斯蒂娜？

Thanks, Chad.

謝謝，乍得。

Hello to everyone joining us today. Just to note, unless I say so, all comparisons I'll be referencing here are on a year-over-year basis. Let's start with GMS.

大家好今天加入我們。請注意，除非我這麼說，否則我將在此處引用的所有比較都是按年計算的。讓我們從 GMS 開始。

During the fourth quarter of 2015, the Etsy Marketplace generated $741.5 million in GMS, up 21%. Growth in GMS was driven by growth in active sellers and active buyers. As Chad mentioned, we had a very strong holiday season, with GMS growth accelerating throughout the period.

2015 年第四季度，Etsy 市場產生了 7.415 億美元的 GMS，增長 21%。 GMS 的增長是由活躍賣家和活躍買家的增長推動的。正如 Chad 所提到的，我們有一個非常強勁的假期，GMS 的增長在整個期間都在加速。

For the full year 2015, the Etsy Marketplace generated approximately $2.4 billion in GMS, up nearly 24% year over year. At the end of the fourth quarter, Etsy had 1.6 million active sellers, up 15.5%, and 24 million active buyers, up 21%. Our community of sellers and buyers continues to grow at a healthy rate. And we are releasing new cohort data that we believe demonstrates the stickiness of our platform.

2015 年全年，Etsy Marketplace 產生了約 24 億美元的 GMS，同比增長近 24%。第四季度末，Etsy 擁有 160 萬活躍賣家，增長 15.5%，活躍買家 2400 萬，增長 21%。我們的賣家和買家社區繼續以健康的速度增長。我們正在發布新的隊列數據，我們認為這些數據證明了我們平台的粘性。

Let me take a minute to remind you of how our cohorts work, starting with our seller cohorts. In our IPO Prospectus, we told you that if we had 100 active sellers in 2011, 32% of these sellers would still have been active in 2014, four years later. In addition, we also told you that the average GMS per 2011 active seller was $4,299, five times higher in 2014 than in 2011.

讓我花點時間提醒您我們的群組是如何工作的，首先是我們的賣家群組。在我們的 IPO 招股說明書中，我們告訴您，如果我們在 2011 年有 100 個活躍的賣家，那麼這些賣家中的 32% 在四年後的 2014 年仍然活躍。此外，我們還告訴您，2011 年每位活躍賣家的平均 GMS 為 4,299 美元，2014 年是 2011 年的五倍。

We're pleased to see that these trends have continued in our 2012 seller and buyer cohorts. We'd also note that year five data for our 2011 cohort is consistent with year four trends. And early data indicates that our 2013 cohorts are behaving similarly.

我們很高興地看到這些趨勢在我們 2012 年的賣家和買家隊列中繼續存在。我們還注意到我們 2011 年隊列的第五年數據與第四年趨勢一致。早期數據表明我們 2013 年的同齡人表現相似。

The 2011 and 2012 data will be in our 10-K, but let me walk you through the highlights for our 2012 cohorts.

2011 年和 2012 年的數據將包含在我們的 10-K 中，但讓我向您介紹一下我們 2012 年隊列的亮點。

For the 2012 seller cohort, 32% of active sellers remained active four years later. And their average GMS was $4,557, four times higher than it was in 2012. Our 2012 buyer cohort is also behaving in line with our 2011 buyer cohort. Recall that at the end of 2014, 45% of our 2011 active buyers remained active.

對於 2012 年的賣家群體，32% 的活躍賣家在四年後仍然活躍。他們的平均 GMS 為 4,557 美元，是 2012 年的四倍。我們 2012 年的買家群體也與 2011 年的買家群體表現一致。回想一下，在 2014 年底，我們 2011 年的活躍買家中有 45% 仍然活躍。

In addition, the average annual GMS for 2011 active buyer in 2014 was $195 or nearly 90% higher than it was in 2011. For the 2012 cohort, nearly 43% of our 2012 active buyers remained active in 2015. And their average GMS was $181, also up nearly 90% versus 2012.

此外，2014 年 2011 年活躍買家的平均年度 GMS 為 195 美元，比 2011 年高出近 90%。對於 2012 年的群組，我們 2012 年活躍買家中近 43% 的人在 2015 年仍然活躍。他們的平均 GMS 為 181 美元，也比 2012 年增長了近 90%。

As Chad mentioned, in 2015 we improved our mobile offering from end to end. And we believe as a direct result, we are narrowing the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS. During the fourth quarter, approximately 61% of our visits came to us from a mobile device, which is up 500 basis points year over year and 100 basis points quarter over quarter. This growth continued to outpace the rate of growth on desktop. More importantly, about 44% of our GMS came from a mobile device, up 600 basis points year over year and flat quarter over quarter.

正如 Chad 所提到的，2015 年我們從頭到尾改進了我們的移動產品。我們相信，作為一個直接結果，我們正在縮小移動訪問和移動 GMS 之間的差距。在第四季度，我們約有 61% 的訪問來自移動設備，同比增長 500 個基點，環比增長 100 個基點。這種增長繼續超過台式機的增長速度。更重要的是，我們約 44% 的 GMS 來自移動設備，同比增長 600 個基點，環比持平。

Etsy's international business continued to expand, with international revenue growing nearly 31% in the fourth quarter. However, percent international GMS was roughly flat at 29.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the third quarter of this year, and down from 30.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. As a reminder, percent international GMS is the percent of total GMS from transactions where either the buyer or seller is outside of the US. We continue to believe that we can grow percent international GMS over time to represent 50% of our total GMS.

Etsy 的國際業務繼續擴張，第四季度國際收入增長近 31%。然而，與今年第三季度相比，第四季度國際 GMS 百分比大致持平，為 29.2%，低於去年第四季度的 30.6%。提醒一下，國際 GMS 百分比是買賣雙方在美國境外的交易占總 GMS 的百分比。我們仍然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們可以將國際 GMS 的百分比增加到占我們總 GMS 的 50%。

As we've discussed with you before, we believe that currency exchange rates are directly and indirectly affecting Etsy's overall GMS growth rates and percent international GMS. During the fourth quarter, GMS from international buyers purchasing from US sellers declined approximately 13% year over year. This is flat with the approximate 13% year-over-year decline we saw in the third quarter, and informs our analysis of the impact of currency translation on international buyer behavior.

正如我們之前與您討論過的那樣，我們認為貨幣匯率直接或間接地影響 Etsy 的整體 GMS 增長率和國際 GMS 百分比。第四季度，國際買家向美國賣家採購的 GMS 同比下降約 13%。這與我們在第三季度看到的約 13% 的同比下降持平，並為我們分析貨幣換算對國際買家行為的影響提供了依據。

Based on the direct impact of currency on our non-US dollar denominated GMS and on our assumptions surrounding the indirect impact of currency exchange rates on international buyer behavior, we believe that we saw a drive of approximately 2 percentage points on our overall GMS growth rate in the fourth quarter from currency.

基於貨幣對我們非美元計價的 GMS 的直接影響以及我們對貨幣匯率對國際買家行為的間接影響的假設，我們認為我們看到了我們整體 GMS 增長率約 2 個百分點的推動力在第四季度從貨幣。

Turning now to revenue, during the fourth quarter, total revenue was $87.9 million, up 35%, driven by growth in Seller Services revenue and, to a lesser extent, growth in Marketplace revenue. Revenue for the full year was $273.5 million, up nearly 40% compared with 2014. Marketplace revenue grew 19.5% in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the growth in transaction fee revenue and, to a lesser extent, growth in listing fee revenue.

現在轉向收入，在第四季度，總收入為 8790 萬美元，增長 35%，受賣家服務收入增長的推動，以及在較小程度上受市場收入增長的推動。全年收入為 2.735 億美元，與 2014 年相比增長近 40%。第四季度市場收入增長 19.5%，這主要是由於交易費收入的增長，其次是上市費收入的增長。

Sellers Service revenue was up 54% in the fourth quarter. And revenue from each of our services grew faster than GMS and Marketplace revenue. This was primarily due to growth in revenue from Direct Checkout and Promoted Listings. Promoted Listings has continued to grow robustly. And revenue growth in the fourth quarter in Promoted Listings was driven by higher click volume and overall improvements to Promoted Listings ad quality.

第四季度賣家服務收入增長了 54%。我們每項服務的收入增長速度都快於 GMS 和 Marketplace 收入。這主要是由於 Direct Checkout 和 Promoted Listings 收入的增長。推薦列表繼續強勁增長。第四季度推薦列表的收入增長是由更高的點擊量和整體改進的推薦列表廣告質量推動的。

We're also very pleased with the growth of Direct Checkout, which benefited from our integration of PayPal into our payment service, and therefore, as Chad mentioned, saw its growth rate accelerate in the quarter. Following the integration at the end of October, we saw a significant increase in the usage of Direct Checkout by our sellers. And notably, Direct Checkout grew slightly faster than Promoted Listings for the first time in 2015. Closing out the Sellers Services discussion, shipping labels revenue growth was driven by a combination of enhancements to the product and an increase in the overall number of orders shipped.

我們也對 Direct Checkout 的增長感到非常滿意，這得益於我們將 PayPal 整合到我們的支付服務中，因此，正如 Chad 提到的那樣，它在本季度的增長率有所加快。在 10 月底整合之後，我們發現賣家對 Direct Checkout 的使用顯著增加。值得注意的是，Direct Checkout 的增長速度在 2015 年首次略高於 Promoted Listings。結束對賣家服務的討論後，運輸標籤收入的增長是由產品改進和發貨訂單總數增加共同推動的。

I now want to update you on the usage of our Seller Services during 2015. During 2015, 48.1% of our active sellers used at least one seller service. 40.2% of our active sellers used Direct Checkout. 23.9% of our active sellers in the US and Canada, where we offer shipping labels, used that service. And 16.7% of our active sellers used Promoted Listings.

我現在想向您介紹 2015 年我們賣家服務的最新使用情況。2015 年期間，我們 48.1% 的活躍賣家至少使用了一項賣家服務。 40.2% 的活躍賣家使用 Direct Checkout。在我們提供運輸標籤的美國和加拿大，23.9% 的活躍賣家使用了該服務。 16.7% 的活躍賣家使用 Promoted Listings。

These stats reflect continued adoption of Direct Checkout and shipping labels and a slight tapering in Promoted Listings usage, which is what we expected. We think the tapering of Promoted Listings usage reflects the impact of our relaunch of the product and our move to a fitted ad model that unlocks greater pricing potential and supports both healthier seller ROI and a better buyer experience. We plan to continue to refine our advertising services to help a broader base of sellers over time.

這些統計數據反映了 Direct Checkout 和運輸標籤的持續採用，以及 Promoted Listings 的使用略有減少，這符合我們的預期。我們認為，Promoted Listings 使用的減少反映了我們重新推出產品以及我們轉向合適的廣告模式的影響，這種模式釋放了更大的定價潛力，並支持更健康的賣家投資回報率和更好的買家體驗。我們計劃繼續完善我們的廣告服務，以隨著時間的推移幫助更廣泛的賣家群體。

Turning now to margins, gross profit for the fourth quarter was approximately $58 million, up 37%. And the gross profit margin was nearly 65.6%, up 70 basis points. As in the first three quarters of the year, in the fourth quarter, gross profit grew faster than revenue. This was due to the leverage we achieved in employee-related and hosting and balance costs, as well as continued robust growth of Promoted Listings which, you may recall, is a higher-margin revenue stream.

現在轉向利潤率，第四季度的毛利潤約為 5800 萬美元，增長 37%。而毛利率接近65.6%，上升70個基點。與今年前三季度一樣，四季度毛利增速快於營收增速。這是由於我們在員工相關成本、託管成本和平衡成本方面取得的槓桿作用，以及推廣列表的持續強勁增長，您可能還記得，這是一個利潤率更高的收入來源。

Turning now to operating expenses. Etsy's total fourth-quarter operating expenses were approximately $49 million, up 17% year over year. Total operating expenses as a percent of revenue declined slightly to 56% in the fourth quarter, compared with 65% last year. We gained leverage in our operating expenses as a percent of revenue, primarily due to reduced G&A expenses that we don't expect to repeat in the first quarter of 2016. And I'll discuss that further in a minute.

現在轉向運營費用。 Etsy 第四季度總運營費用約為 4900 萬美元，同比增長 17%。總運營費用佔收入的百分比在第四季度略有下降，從去年的 65% 下降到 56%。我們在營業費用佔收入的百分比方面獲得了槓桿作用，這主要是由於我們預計 2016 年第一季度不會重複的 G&A 費用減少。我將在一分鐘內進一步討論。

For the full year 2015, operating expenses as a percent of revenue declined slightly to 65% compared with 66% in 2014. Marketing expenses totaled $22.5 million, up 54%, representing 26% of total revenue versus 23% last year and 25% in the third quarter. This year-over-year growth in marketing spend decelerated meaningfully from the year-over-year growth in spend we reported for the third quarter of 2015, as well as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. It reflects the plateauing of growth in our digital marketing spend that we forecasted to you all last quarter.

2015 年全年，運營費用佔收入的百分比從 2014 年的 66% 略微下降至 65%。營銷費用總計 2250 萬美元，增長 54%，佔總收入的 26%，而去年為 23%，2018 年為 25%。第三季度。與我們報告的 2015 年第三季度以及去年第四季度相比，營銷支出的同比增長明顯放緩。它反映了我們上個季度向大家預測的數字營銷支出增長趨於平穩。

As in previous quarters, the growth in marketing expenses continues to be driven by digital marketing, which is primarily focused on Google product listing ads. During the fourth quarter, digital marketing expense was roughly $15 million, up 86%. As we expected, this was less than the approximate 95% growth in spending we saw in the third quarter.

與前幾個季度一樣，營銷費用的增長繼續受到數字營銷的推動，數字營銷主要集中在谷歌產品列表廣告上。第四季度，數字營銷費用約為 1500 萬美元，增長 86%。正如我們預期的那樣，這低於我們在第三季度看到的大約 95% 的支出增長。

During the fourth quarter, digital marketing spend continued to generate positive ROI based on our global attribution model. And our paid GMS growth rate actually accelerated to 68%, more than triple our reported GMS growth rate. And favorably comparing to 59% paid GMS growth rate in the third quarter.

在第四季度，基於我們的全球歸因模型，數字營銷支出繼續產生積極的投資回報率。我們的付費 GMS 增長率實際上加速到 68%，是我們報告的 GMS 增長率的三倍多。與第三季度 59% 的付費 GMS 增長率相比有優勢。

As we've shared with you before, unique to an Internet Company our size, approximately 90% of our traffic comes from organic channels. So it can be difficult externally to see the positive impacts of our marketing investment on GMS growth strictly on a quarterly basis. Our marketing investments are guided by our two-year lifetime value global attribution model, in which we make conservative assumptions about how paid traffic will perform compared with organic traffic.

正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，對於我們這種規模的互聯網公司來說，我們大約 90% 的流量來自自然渠道。因此，很難從外部嚴格按季度看到我們的營銷投資對 GMS 增長的積極影響。我們的營銷投資以我們為期兩年的生命週期價值全球歸因模型為指導，在該模型中，我們對付費流量與自然流量相比的表現做出了保守的假設。

Since 2014, we have achieved a payback period of five quarters. And we remain committed to achieving positive two-year ROI at the aggregate Company level on our marketing spent. For the full year 2015, marketing expenses grew 68%, a significant deceleration when compared to the 122% growth in 2014.

自 2014 年以來，我們已經實現了五個季度的投資回收期。我們仍然致力於在公司層面的營銷支出上實現積極的兩年投資回報率。 2015 年全年，營銷費用增長 68%，與 2014 年 122% 的增長相比顯著放緩。

Moving on, product development expenses totaled $11.2 million, up 15%, representing 13% of total revenue versus 15% last year. The increase in product development expenses was driven by higher employee-related expenses, as we continued to grow products and engineering staff.

繼續前進，產品開發費用總計 1120 萬美元，增長 15%，佔總收入的 13%，而去年為 15%。隨著我們繼續增加產品和工程人員，與員工相關的費用增加推動了產品開發費用的增加。

G&A expenses totaled $15.6 million, down 11%, representing 18% of total revenue versus 27% last year. The decrease in G&A expenses primarily resulted from reduced stock-based compensation and lower bad debt expense. Excluding these items, G&A expenses would have increased 13%.

G&A 費用總計 1560 萬美元，下降 11%，佔總收入的 18%，而去年為 27%。 G&A 費用的減少主要是由於基於股票的薪酬減少和壞賬費用減少。排除這些項目，G&A 費用將增加 13%。

Headcount at the end of the quarter was 819 compared with 804 as of September 30, 2015; and 685 as of December 31, 2014. Looking ahead to 2016, we expect to continue to hire at a robust pace.

本季度末員工人數為 819 人，截至 2015 年 9 月 30 日為 804 人；截至 2014 年 12 月 31 日為 685 人。展望 2016 年，我們預計將繼續以強勁的速度招聘。

Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $14 million, up 51%. This resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter of 16%, up 170 basis points year over year.

非美國通用會計準則調整後的 EBITDA 為 1400 萬美元，增長 51%。這導致本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 16%，同比增長 170 個基點。

Fourth-quarter net loss was $4.2 million compared with a net loss of $5.4 million last year. Etsy's net loss in the fourth quarter of 2015 was impacted by a foreign exchange loss and by our income tax provision. We recorded $6 million of foreign exchange losses in the fourth quarter of 2015, largely made up of a non-cash currency loss related to Etsy's revised global corporate structure that we implemented on January 1, 2015.

第四季度淨虧損為 420 萬美元，而去年淨虧損為 540 萬美元。 Etsy 2015 年第四季度的淨虧損受到外匯損失和我們的所得稅撥備的影響。我們在 2015 年第四季度錄得 600 萬美元的匯兌損失，主要是與我們於 2015 年 1 月 1 日實施的 Etsy 修訂後的全球公司結構相關的非現金貨幣損失。

We also recorded a $6.3 million tax provision in the fourth quarter compared to a tax provision of $3.1 million last year. Our tax provision in the fourth quarter was driven by non-cash charges primarily related to the aforementioned revised global corporate structure. Our tax provision also reflects the benefit from an R&D tax credit.

我們還在第四季度記錄了 630 萬美元的稅收撥備，而去年的稅收撥備為 310 萬美元。我們在第四季度的稅收撥備是由主要與上述修訂後的全球公司結構相關的非現金費用驅動的。我們的稅收撥備也反映了研發稅收抵免的好處。

During the quarter, we generated $10.2 million in cash from operations compared with $0.1 million last year. The increase in net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was mainly due to the timing of payments of certain vendors, which will happen in the first quarter of 2016. As of December 31, 2015, we had cash, marketable securities and short-term investments totaling $292.9 million.

本季度，我們從運營中產生了 1020 萬美元的現金，而去年為 10 萬美元。本季度經營活動提供的現金淨額增加主要是由於某些供應商付款的時間安排，這將發生在 2016 年第一季度。截至 2015 年 12 月 31 日，我們有現金、有價證券和短期定期投資總額為 2.929 億美元。

To wrap it up, I'd like to discuss our three-year growth expectations from a financial perspective.

最後，我想從財務角度討論我們的三年增長預期。

From the many meetings Chad and I have had with our investors since we went public, it has become clear to us that an additional long-term guidance would be helpful to our investor community. And would provide a clearer picture of how we believe our strategic initiatives will translate into long-term financial results. We are as committed as ever to delivering long-term sustainable growth. And over the next three years, we believe we can continue to achieve solid revenue growth, combined with leverage in our cost structure, to expand our adjusted EBITDA margins.

從我們上市以來乍得和我與投資者舉行的許多次會議中，我們清楚地認識到，額外的長期指導將對我們的投資者群體有所幫助。並將更清楚地說明我們相信我們的戰略舉措將如何轉化為長期財務業績。我們一如既往地致力於實現長期可持續增長。在接下來的三年裡，我們相信我們可以繼續實現穩健的收入增長，結合我們成本結構的槓桿作用，以擴大我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Specifically, we expect our three-year revenue CAGR to be in the 20% to 25% range and our three-year GMS CAGR to be in the 13% to 17% range. Please note, though, that our guidance assumes currency remains stable compared to average levels in December of 2015.

具體來說，我們預計我們的三年收入複合年增長率將在 20% 至 25% 的範圍內，我們的三年 GMS 複合年增長率將在 13% 至 17% 的範圍內。但請注意，我們的指引假設貨幣與 2015 年 12 月的平均水平相比保持穩定。

In 2016, we expect revenue growth to be at the high end of our three-year range, and that GMS growth will be near the midpoint of our three-year range. We anticipate that the key factors impacting revenue and GMS growth over the next three years include: number one, the further narrowing of the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS; number two, stable percent international GMS; number three, continued revenue growth in our existing Seller Services, driven by both adoption and product enhancements; and finally, number four, modest contributions from new product launches and new Seller Services.

2016 年，我們預計收入增長將處於我們三年區間的高端，而 GMS 增長將接近我們三年區間的中點。我們預計未來三年影響收入和 GMS 增長的關鍵因素包括：第一，移動訪問量與移動 GMS 之間的差距進一步縮小；第二，穩定百分比國際 GMS；第三，在採用和產品改進的推動下，我們現有賣家服務的收入持續增長；最後，第四，新產品發布和新賣家服務的貢獻不大。

We expect to exit 2018 with a full-year gross margin that is in the mid-60% range and that the 2016 gross margin will be in the 64% to 65% range. We anticipate the key factors impacting our gross margin forecast over the next three years include: number one, continued revenue growth from our existing Seller Services, driven by both adoption and product enhancements; number two, the impact from new Seller Services that we intend to launch. I would also note that at this point, we don't anticipate launching any new Seller Services in the next three years that would be dilutive to our gross margin.

我們預計 2018 年全年毛利率將在 60% 左右，2016 年毛利率將在 64% 至 65% 之間。我們預計影響我們未來三年毛利率預測的關鍵因素包括：第一，我們現有賣家服務的收入持續增長，這得益於採用和產品增強；第二，我們打算推出的新賣家服務的影響。我還要指出，在這一點上，我們預計在未來三年內不會推出任何會稀釋我們毛利率的新賣家服務。

We also expect to gain leverage in our operating cost structure over the next three years, particularly within marketing spend. In fact, in 2016, we expect marketing expense as a percent of revenue to decline. However, overall marketing expenses as a percent of revenue will increase, driven by expenses associated with our new headquarters here in Brooklyn and with Sarbanes-Oxley compliance.

我們還希望在未來三年內在我們的運營成本結構中獲得影響力，特別是在營銷支出方面。事實上，在 2016 年，我們預計營銷費用佔收入的百分比將會下降。然而，由於我們在布魯克林的新總部和薩班斯-奧克斯利法案合規相關的費用，整體營銷費用佔收入的百分比將會增加。

Finally, from an adjusted EBITDA margin perspective, we estimate that our margin in 2016 will be comparable to 2015, in the 10% to 11% range, and that it will expand to the high-teens range exiting 2018. Over the next three years, this translates to overall adjusted EBITDA growth that was more than two times faster than revenue.

最後，從調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率角度來看，我們估計我們 2016 年的利潤率將與 2015 年相當，在 10% 到 11% 的範圍內，並且它將擴大到 2018 年結束的高位區間。在未來三年，這意味著整體調整後的 EBITDA 增長比收入快兩倍以上。

And with that, I'll thank you for listening. I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to open it up for Q&A.

有了這個，我會感謝你的傾聽。我想將電話轉回給接線員，以便打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Brian Nowak, from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。您的線路現已開通。

Thanks for taking my questions; I have a couple.

感謝您回答我的問題；我有一對。

It sounded like the holiday trends were pretty strong -- GMS accelerating -- curious as to why guide to a GMS slowdown if it seems that the trends are so strong? I think the comp's actually getting a little bit easier throughout 2016. So just be curious for that. And then, as we think about the sources of leverage in the model over the three-year period, can you just talk about R&A, R&D versus sales and marketing as sources of leverage? Thanks.

聽起來假期趨勢非常強勁——GMS 加速——很好奇，如果趨勢看起來如此強勁，為什麼會導致 GMS 放緩？我認為整個 2016 年的比賽實際上變得更容易了。所以對此感到好奇。然後，當我們考慮三年期間模型中的槓桿來源時，您能談談 R&A、R&D 與銷售和營銷作為槓桿來源嗎？謝謝。

Sure, Brian, thanks for your question.

當然，布賴恩，謝謝你的問題。

When we think about GMS growth, we think it's important to remember some of the factors that impacted GMS in 2015 and how we're thinking about those factors as we move into 2016. Most importantly is to consider the impacts of currency. Our guidance assumes that currency remains stable compared to December 2015 average levels. While we can calculate that direct translation -- we can calculate the direct translation pretty clearly -- it's really difficult to estimate its impact on international buyer behavior. So our GMS estimate does not incorporate -- our guidance does not incorporate -- a significant rebound in international buyer behavior.

當我們考慮 GMS 增長時，我們認為重要的是要記住 2015 年影響 GMS 的一些因素以及我們在進入 2016 年時如何考慮這些因素。最重要的是考慮貨幣的影響。我們的指引假設貨幣與 2015 年 12 月的平均水平相比保持穩定。雖然我們可以計算直接翻譯——我們可以非常清楚地計算直接翻譯——但很難估計它對國際買家行為的影響。因此，我們的 GMS 估計沒有包含——我們的指導沒有包含——國際買家行為的顯著反彈。

On the question with regard to leverage, you were specifically asking about marketing leverage. I think when we look over a three-year basis, we expect operating leverage in each of our three key expense items -- expense line items: product development, marketing, and G&A. As I mentioned with regard to 2016 guidance specifically, we expect leverage in marketing expense. We actually expect it to go down on a year-over-year basis as a percent of revenue, while still growing, however, just not as fast as revenue. As I mentioned, we expect operating expenses, in total as a percent of revenue, to increase. And that's really due, as I mentioned, to our new headquarters, which we're moving into in 2016, and Sarbanes-Oxley compliance. Most of those expenses, Brian, will fall into the G&A category.

關於槓桿的問題，你具體問的是營銷槓桿。我認為，當我們回顧三年的基礎時，我們預計我們的三個關鍵支出項目——支出項目：產品開發、營銷和 G&A 中的每一個都有運營槓桿。正如我特別提到的 2016 年指南，我們預計營銷費用將發揮槓桿作用。我們實際上預計它佔收入的百分比將同比下降，同時仍在增長，但速度不如收入快。正如我所提到的，我們預計運營費用佔總收入的百分比會增加。正如我所提到的，這真的要歸功於我們將於 2016 年搬入的新總部，以及薩班斯-奧克斯利法案的合規性。 Brian，這些費用中的大部分將屬於 G&A 類別。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Blake Harper from Topeka Capital. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Topeka Capital 的 Blake Harper。您的線路現已開通。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

I wanted to ask you about the Promoted Listings, with only 16% of your sellers using them, but you did call them out as having driven higher strength. I wanted to see if you could talk more about that. Is it specific segmentation with different searches? Or better targeting? And maybe what you see as the potential there as far as the number of your sellers that would use them, and what the potential for that category could be?

我想問你有關 Promoted Listings 的問題，只有 16% 的賣家使用它們，但你確實稱它們推動了更高的強度。我想看看你能不能多談談這個。是不同搜索的特定細分嗎？還是更好的定位？就使用它們的賣家數量而言，您認為那裡的潛力是什麼？該類別的潛力是什麼？

Hello, Blake, thanks for your question.

你好，布萊克，謝謝你的問題。

At Promoted Listings --16.7% of our active sellers in 2015 used the service. That was down roughly 100 basis points versus last year. And as I mentioned that was expected and that was despite really robust growth in Promoted Listings for the year. Just as a reminder to our investors about the changes that we implemented in Promoted Listings: in end of 2014 moving into 2015, we moved from a static pricing model, meaning everything was priced the same in Promoted Listings, to a bidded model, meaning that prices reflected demand. The way that we have railed our Promoted Listings product is that it's ROI positive to the seller, so it prevents the seller from bidding at extremely high prices to simply drive traffic that doesn't convert into growth sales for that seller. But it did increase pricing in certain categories of keyword that ultimately priced out some sellers.

在 Promoted Listings --16.7% 的活躍賣家在 2015 年使用了該服務。與去年相比下降了大約 100 個基點。正如我提到的那樣，這是意料之中的，儘管今年的推薦列表確實強勁增長。提醒我們的投資者註意我們在促銷列表中實施的更改：從 2014 年底進入 2015 年，我們從靜態定價模型（這意味著在促銷列表中的所有內容都定價相同）轉變為投標模型，這意味著價格反映了需求。我們評價我們的 Promoted Listings 產品的方式是它對賣家的投資回報率是積極的，因此它可以防止賣家以極高的價格出價來簡單地推動流量，而流量不會轉化為該賣家的銷售增長。但它確實提高了某些類別關鍵詞的定價，最終讓一些賣家望而卻步。

As I mentioned in my remarks, our goal is, over the longer term, to focus on creating advertising services that target a broader spectrum of our sellers. But as it stands today, when you think about Promoted Listings and you think about the hundreds of millions of search page views that occur on Etsy on an annual basis, our Promoted Listings product, which puts the top three relevant products in the search at the top of the page, drive a significant amount of volume. So they're really for our sellers who can handle that level of volume. However, we have a lot of sellers who are interested in advertising services. In fact, it's our number one requested service. And we think there's a lot we can do over time in the long term to add to our advertising service lead products.

正如我在發言中提到的，從長遠來看，我們的目標是專注於創建針對更廣泛賣家的廣告服務。但就目前情況而言，當你想到 Promoted Listings 時，你會想到每年在 Etsy 上發生的數以億計的搜索頁面瀏覽量，我們的 Promoted Listings 產品將排名前三的相關產品放在搜索中頁面頂部，驅動大量音量。因此，它們真的適合我們能夠處理該數量級的賣家。但是，我們有很多賣家對廣告服務感興趣。事實上，這是我們請求的第一服務。而且我們認為，從長遠來看，我們可以做很多事情來增加我們的廣告服務主導產品。

Thanks for your question, Blake.

謝謝你的問題，布雷克。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question comes from the line of Darren Aftahi from Roth. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Roth 的 Darren Aftahi。您的線路現已開通。

Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple, if I may.

晚上好。感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，只有一對。

First, on your long-term guidance -- I know you said you have an unannounced new seller services for 2016. What is your GMS in revenue growth assumption assume in terms of the number of seller services you're offering exiting that period? Number two -- Kristina, if my math is correct, is that G&A swing you said is nonrecurring, is that roughly about $4 million?

首先，關於你的長期指導——我知道你說過你有一個未宣布的 2016 年新賣家服務。你的 GMS 在收入增長假設中假設你在那個時期提供的賣家服務的數量是多少？第二——克里斯蒂娜，如果我的計算是正確的，你說的 G&A 波動是不是經常性的，大約是 400 萬美元？

To answer your first question, Darren, with regard to our guidance, as we said, our guidance assumes very modest impact from both a new product and a seller service, so it's very modest in the guidance that we have provided. With regard to your second question, I'm not prepared to quantify it, but there will be more detail about the G&A swing in our 10-K.

達倫，要回答你的第一個問題，關於我們的指導，正如我們所說，我們的指導假設新產品和賣家服務的影響非常小，所以我們提供的指導非常小。關於你的第二個問題，我不准備對其進行量化，但在我們的 10-K 中會有更多關於 G&A 波動的細節。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'm not showing any further questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Management for any further remarks.

我不會再提出任何問題。我現在想把電話轉回給管理層，以徵求任何進一步的評論。

We just wanted to thank everyone for tuning into the call today, and thanks for your questions.

我們只是想感謝大家今天調入電話會議，並感謝您提出問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束。您現在可能會全部斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。