Equinor ASA (EQNR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equinor analyst call Q3 conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Equinor 分析師第三季電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) And finally, I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）最後，我想告知所有參與者，本次通話正在錄音。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'd now like to welcome Bard Glad Pedersen, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin the conference.

現在我歡迎投資者關係資深副總裁 Bard Glad Pedersen 開始會議。

Bard, over to you.

巴德，交給你了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning to all.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。

I'm here together with Torgrim Reitan, our CFO.

我和我們的財務長 Torgrim Reitan 一起來到這裡。

As usual, he will take us through the numbers, and then we will open for questions and answers.

像往常一樣，他會帶我們瀏覽這些數字，然後我們將開放提問和回答。

So with that, I hand it over to you, Torgrim.

那麼，我就把它交給你了，托格瑞姆。

Thank you, Bard, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining.

謝謝巴德，大家早安，謝謝您的加入。

Before we go into the results, take a look at the photo of Johan Sverdrup.

在我們討論結果之前，先來看看 Johan Sverdrup 的照片。

It's a truly remarkable asset.

這確實是一項非凡的資產。

After five years in production, it has now produced more than 1 billion barrels.

經過五年的生產，目前產量已超過10億桶。

It continues to create significant value and cash flow quarter after quarter, and total revenue is already higher than $80 billion.

它繼續一個又一個季度地創造巨大的價值和現金流，總收入已經超過 800 億美元。

On the 21st of September, we set a new record with over 756,000 barrels of oil produced.

9 月 21 日，我們創下了石油產量超過 756,000 桶的新紀錄。

We optimized water management and continue to drill new wells, and this has helped to extend the plateau into next year.

我們優化了水資源管理並繼續鑽探新井，這有助於將高原期延長到明年。

Now let me dive into the numbers.

現在讓我深入研究一下數字。

Today, we delivered solid financial results and operational performance in a quarter with extensive turnarounds.

今天，我們在一個季度實現了穩健的財務業績和營運業績，並實現了廣泛的轉變。

We report adjusted operating income of $6.9 billion before tax and an IFRS net income of $2.3 billion.

我們公佈的調整後稅前營業收入為 69 億美元，國際財務報告準則淨利為 23 億美元。

Year-to-date,

今年迄今，

we have delivered cash flow from operations after tax of $14 billion.

我們的稅後營運現金流達 140 億美元。

We are on track to deliver in line with what we said at our Capital Markets update in February.

我們有望按照我們在二月的資本市場更新中所說的那樣交付。

Our adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.79. We saw an all-time high production from Troll in the gas year ending in September.

調整後每股收益為 0.79 美元。我們在 9 月結束的天然氣年度中看到了 Troll 的歷史最高產量。

We have done improvements and debottlenecking across the gas value chain for many years, ensuring reliable supply of natural gas to Europe.

多年來，我們在整個天然氣價值鏈上進行了改進和消除瓶頸，確保向歐洲提供可靠的天然氣供應。

And this has created quite a bit of added value from increasing gas prices in this quarter.

這為本季天然氣價格上漲創造了相當多的附加價值。

Johan Castberg, as you see on the slide, is on location in the Barents Sea, on track for production start-up by end of the year.

正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，約翰·卡斯特伯格 (Johan Castberg) 正在巴倫支海拍攝現場，預計將在今年年底前啟動生產。

In September, the Northern Lights facility was completed on time and on cost and is now ready to receive CO2.

九月，北極光設施按時、按成本完工，現已準備好接收二氧化碳。

We recently announced that we have acquired 9.8% in Orsted.

我們最近宣布收購了 Orsted 9.8% 的股份。

This is an important transaction.

這是一筆重要的交易。

So let me share a few thoughts.

那麼讓我來分享一些想法。

This is a good time for a transaction like this.

現在是進行此類交易的好時機。

The offshore wind industry is facing challenges, and this is also reflected in the market value of Orsted.

離岸風電產業面臨挑戰，也反映在Orsted的市值上。

As an offshore wind developer ourselves, we know this and what it takes to resolve it.

作為離岸風電開發商，我們知道這一點以及如何解決它。

As such, this is a countercyclical investment, and we do know how important it is to get timing right.

因此，這是一項反週期投資，我們確實知道把握正確時機的重要性。

Offshore wind will play a crucial role in the energy transition, and we have a long-term industrial perspective.

離岸風電將在能源轉型中發揮至關重要的作用，我們有長遠的產業眼光。

We see Orsted as a leading developer with a high-quality portfolio of producing assets.

我們認為 Orsted 是一家領先的開發商，擁有高品質的生產資產組合。

This complements our own ongoing offshore wind projects in the US, UK, and Poland.

這補充了我們在美國、英國和波蘭正在進行的離岸風電計畫。

These were accessed early at low cost and deliver competitive returns on equity.

這些資源可以以較低的成本及早獲得，並帶來具有競爭力的股本回報。

We continue to focus on value over volume, and our renewable strategy stays firm.

我們持續專注於價值而非數量，我們的再生能源策略保持堅定。

We will not overbid in lease auctions, rather, we will be value-driven and flexible in our approach.

我們不會在租賃拍賣中出價過高，相反，我們將以價值為導向，採取靈活的方法。

This acquisition requires significantly lower CapEx than organic opportunities, and it supports our renewable ambitions towards 2030.

此次收購所需的資本支出顯著低於有機機會，並且支持我們邁向 2030 年的再生能源野心。

So this transaction is not in addition to our existing plans.

所以這筆交易並不在我們現有的計畫之外。

Our near-term CapEx is defined by projects in development, but towards 2030, this transaction will help us progress towards our ambitions with lower CapEx spend.

我們的近期資本支出是由正在開發的項目決定的，但到 2030 年，這項交易將幫助我們以較低的資本支出支出實現我們的目標。

The Orsted transaction is also done within our financial framework and has no implications to our communicated capital distribution program.

Orsted 交易也是在我們的財務框架內完成的，對我們溝通的資本分配計劃沒有任何影響。

Today, we are delivering on what we said at the CMU with competitive capital distribution.

今天，我們正在透過具有競爭力的資本分配來兌現我們在卡內基美隆大學所說的內容。

For the quarter, the Board approved an ordinary cash dividend of $0.35 per share and $0.35 in extraordinary dividend.

本季度，董事會批准每股 0.35 美元的普通現金股息和 0.35 美元的特別股息。

And the fourth tranche of share buybacks of $1.6 billion is starting tomorrow.

第四批 16 億美元的股票回購將於明天開始。

In total, we are delivering what we said, $14 billion in capital distribution for the year.

總的來說，我們今年的資本分配達到了我們所謂的 140 億美元。

Safety remains our top priority.

安全仍然是我們的首要任務。

This week, we had an incident on Sleipner B, an unmanned platform in the North Sea.

本週，我們在北海的一個無人平台 Sleipner B 上發生了一起事件。

We take an incident like this very seriously and are well prepared to handle it.

我們非常重視此類事件，並已做好處理準備。

Gas production was shut down and our emergency preparedness organization mobilized.

天然氣生產被關閉，我們的緊急準備組織也被動員起來。

This incident will also be investigated to understand root causes and to ensure learning.

還將調查這一事件，以了解根本原因並確保學習。

In the quarter, we had high activity with extensive turnarounds while maintaining strong safety results.

本季度，我們的活動頻繁，週轉時間廣泛，同時保持了強勁的安全業績。

We continue our efforts to ensure that all our people return safely home from work every day.

我們將繼續努力，確保所有員工每天都能安全下班回家。

So over to production.

那就進入生產階段吧。

On the NCS, we had strong operational performance, and the planned high turnaround activity was well executed.

在 NCS 上，我們擁有強勁的營運績效，並且計劃中的高週轉活動得到了很好的執行。

Total NCS production was up 2% from the same quarter last year.

NCS 總產量比去年同期成長 2%。

The increase in gas production was 8%, driven by high gas production from Troll and good contributions from Aasta Hansteen and Oseberg.

天然氣產量增加了 8%，這得益於 Troll 的高天然氣產量以及 Aasta Hansteen 和 Oseberg 的良好貢獻。

The ramp-up of new fields like Breidablikk and Hans also contributed.

Breidablikk 和 Hans 等新領域的崛起也做出了貢獻。

For E&P International, production was also impacted by turnarounds, mainly at Peregrino, partly offset by new wells in Angola.

對於 E&P International 來說，產量也受到了扭虧為盈的影響，主要是 Peregrino 的扭虧為盈，但部分被安哥拉的新井所抵消。

For E&P US, liquids production was impacted by shut-ins due to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and well workover at the field Caesar Tonga.

對 E&P US 來說，液體生產受到墨西哥灣颶風導致的停產和凱撒湯加油田修井的影響。

Renewables production is significantly higher than last year, mainly driven by onshore power plants in Brazil and Poland.

再生能源產量顯著高於去年，主要由巴西和波蘭的陸上發電廠推動。

For Dogger Bank A in the UK, the operator for the development phase now expects full commercial production during the second half of 2025.

對於英國的 Dogger Bank A，開發階段的營運商目前預計在 2025 年下半年實現全面商業化生產。

It impacts our production outlook this year, and I will revert to this.

它影響了我們今年的生產前景，我將再次討論這一點。

Now to our financial results.

現在我們的財務表現。

Liquids prices declined during the quarter and were lower than last year.

本季液體價格下降，低於去年同期。

At the same time, European gas prices were up 14%, driven by increased gas demand from growing economies like China, higher political risk, and supply disruptions.

同時，由於中國等發展中經濟體天然氣需求增加、政治風險上升以及供應中斷，歐洲天然氣價格上漲了 14%。

As expected, storages in Europe are almost full, but the market remains fragile and small events can give large fluctuations.

正如預期，歐洲庫存幾乎已滿，但市場仍然脆弱，小事件可能帶來大波動。

As we approach winter, European demand will again depend on weather and temperatures and with a normal or cold winter, there will be upward pressure on prices.

隨著冬季的臨近，歐洲的需求將再次取決於天氣和溫度，並且在正常或寒冷的冬季，價格將面臨上行壓力。

LNG demand in Asia and Russian volumes through Ukraine will also impact prices.

亞洲的液化天然氣需求和俄羅斯透過烏克蘭的液化天然氣需求也將影響價格。

And in addition, there is significant uncertainty related to the timing of new LNG projects coming online.

此外，新液化天然氣計畫上線的時間存在很大的不確定性。

This quarter, we had strong gas production on the NCS and captured high prices, delivering adjusted operating income of $5.9 billion and $1.3 billion after tax.

本季度，我們 NCS 的天然氣產量強勁，價格居高不下，調整後營業收入為 59 億美元，稅後收入為 13 億美元。

Our international E&P segments combined delivered more than $600 million in adjusted operating income and almost $500 million after tax.

我們的國際勘探與生產部門合計實現調整後營業收入超過 6 億美元，稅後收入近 5 億美元。

Lower liquids production and exploration expenses impacted the results.

液體產量和勘探費用的下降影響了業績。

Our MMP results were driven by strong LNG and power trading, and our ability to capture geographical arbitrage in LPG through our shipping fleet.

我們的 MMP 表現是由強勁的液化天然氣和電力交易以及我們透過運輸船隊捕捉液化石油氣地理套利的能力所推動的。

Since third quarter last year, adjusted OpEx and SG&A is up by 3%.

自去年第三季以來，調整後的營運支出和銷售管理費用增加了 3%。

The underlying cost increase is somewhat higher due to currency effects and some one-offs.

由於貨幣效應和一些一次性因素，潛在成本的增加略高。

And we continue to maintain a strong focus on cost control and capital discipline.

我們持續高度重視成本控制和資本紀律。

This quarter, our cash flow from operations was more than $6.2 billion after tax.

本季度，我們的營運現金流稅後超過 62 億美元。

We paid one NCS tax installment of $2.9 billion.

我們繳了一筆 29 億美元的 NCS 稅金。

But next quarter, we will pay two installments.

但下個季度，我們將分兩期付款。

We distributed $6.5 billion to our shareholders in the third quarter.

第三季我們向股東分配了 65 億美元。

But remember, this included the annual payment of the state's share buybacks of around $4 billion.

但請記住，這包括每年支付約 40 億美元的國家股票回購費用。

Organic CapEx was $3.1 billion and $8.7 billion year to date.

年初至今，有機資本支出分別為 31 億美元和 87 億美元。

After tax, capital distribution and investments, our net cash flow was negative $3.4 billion as expected.

扣除稅項、資本分配和投資後，我們的淨現金流量如預期為負 34 億美元。

So we have a solid financial position with over $30 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and our net debt ratio increased to negative 2% this quarter.

因此，我們擁有穩健的財務狀況，擁有超過 300 億美元的現金和現金等價物，本季我們的淨負債比率增至負 2%。

As we indicated at CMU, we expect the net debt ratio to move into positive territory by year-end, and the impact of the Orsted acquisition will be around 5%.

正如我們在卡內基美隆大學表示的那樣，我們預計到年底淨負債率將進入正值，收購 Orsted 的影響將在 5% 左右。

Finally, to our guiding.

最後，給我們指導。

We guided on $13 billion in CapEx for 2024.

我們預計 2024 年的資本支出為 130 億美元。

We now expect to come in on the downside and are therefore adjusting our guiding to $12 billion to $13 billion.

我們現在預計會出現下跌，因此將我們的指引調整為 120 億至 130 億美元。

This is due to phasing of project spend towards year-end, adjustments within onshore renewables and currency effects on our NCS projects.

這是由於年底前分階段進行的專案支出、陸上再生能源的調整以及貨幣對我們 NCS 專案的影響。

There is no change to our guiding for oil and gas production.

我們對石油和天然氣生產的指導沒有改變。

But as we have said previously, there is more risk to the downside related to curtailments from US onshore operators.

但正如我們之前所說，美國陸上業者減產帶來的下行風險更大。

We have adjusted our renewables production guidance to grow by around 50% this year, mainly reflecting the progress on Dogger Bank A.

我們已將今年再生能源產量指引調整為成長 50% 左右，主要反映了 Dogger Bank A 的進展。

So now, back to you, Bard, and then I look very much forward to your questions.

現在，回到你，巴德，然後我非常期待你的問題。

So thanks.

所以謝謝。

Thank you, Torgrim.

謝謝你，托格瑞姆。

We are then ready to start Q&A, and many have registered already.

然後我們準備開始問答，很多人已經註冊了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

比拉傑‧博哈塔里亞 (Biraj Borkhataria)，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thanks for the comments on Orsted in particular and the intention there.

特別感謝您對 Orsted 的評論和意圖。

I'm just wondering how we should think about the 12 to 16 gigawatt target that you've previously put out?

我只是想知道我們應該如何看待您之前提出的 12 至 16 吉瓦目標？

Based on your comments around development costs going up and obviously your commitment to return, it seems like it's going to be tougher to get to that amount and stick to the returns criteria unless you were to use the other option, which is to buy more Orsted.

根據您對開發成本上升的評論以及顯然您對回報的承諾，似乎要達到該金額並遵守回報標準會更加困難，除非您使用其他選擇，即購買更多 Orsted 。

So how should we think about that target in the context of the recent move?

那麼，在最近的舉動的背景下，我們該如何考慮這個目標呢？

And then second question, just on Empire Wind.

然後是第二個問題，關於帝國風。

Could you just update us on the progress on project financing and when that is expected to close?

您能否向我們介紹一下專案融資的最新進展以及預計何時結束？

Thank you, Biraj, important questions.

謝謝比拉傑，重要的問題。

So just let me put sort of Orsted into the context of our deliveries on energy transition in general.

因此，讓我將 Orsted 納入我們整體能源轉型交付的背景中。

But first, we do like the company.

但首先，我們確實喜歡這家公司。

We want to be a part of it, and we are supporting of their strategy and their management.

我們希望成為其中的一部分，並且支持他們的策略和管理。

And we see this as a good time to go into it.

我們認為這是進入這個領域的好時機。

As we sort of are very much into the reality of this industry, we see that sort of making a transaction like this is -- we get access to offshore wind projects at a much more reasonable price than actually building things from scratch for the time being.

由於我們非常了解這個行業的現實，我們看到這樣的交易是——我們以比暫時從頭開始建造專案更合理的價格獲得離岸風電專案。

So what we currently are doing is that we are continuing with sort of the three developments that we are developing, Dogger Bank in the UK, Empire in the US, and Baltic in Poland.

因此，我們目前正在做的是繼續開發我們正在開發的三個開發項目：英國的 Dogger Bank、美國的 Empire 和波蘭的 Baltic。

So those will be important part of the delivery towards 2030.

因此，這些將是 2030 年交付的重要組成部分。

Beyond that, we do see that this investment in Orsted replaces investments that we could do organically as such.

除此之外，我們確實看到對 Orsted 的投資取代了我們可以有機進行的投資。

So this will be an integrated part of our delivery towards 2030 and sort of what we have said there.

因此，這將是我們 2030 年目標的一個組成部分，也是我們所說的內容。

However, I would like to qualify that even more.

然而，我想進一步限定這一點。

I mean 12 to 16 gigawatts is not a target.

我的意思是 12 至 16 吉瓦不是目標。

It is a guiding for what we think we can deliver.

它是我們認為可以實現的目標的指南。

But you need to -- I really would like to leave with you that value creation triumphs volumes.

但你需要——我真的很想告訴你，價值創造勝過數量。

So value creation over volume is very critical.

因此，價值創造超過數量非常關鍵。

And we are happy to let it go or delay it if we don't see the sufficient value creation.

如果我們看不到足夠的價值創造，我們很樂意放棄或推遲它。

So I hope you all can see a little bit of a pattern in what we do in sort of trying to get timing right within offshore wind.

因此，我希望大家都能在我們努力在離岸風電領域找到正確時機的工作中看到一些模式。

We have entered early at low cost.

我們以較低的成本提前進入。

We have divested in sort of when prices were high, and we are taking the opportunity to get access to 10% off of Orsted at a reasonable price, so getting timing right is clearly very important.

我們在價格高的時候就進行了撤資，並藉此機會以合理的價格獲得 Orsted 10% 的折扣，因此把握正確的時機顯然非常重要。

On sort of, you had a question, Biraj, on more Orsted.

比拉吉，你在某種程度上有一個關於更多 Orsted 的問題。

So we have now sort of bought 9.8%.

所以我們現在已經買了 9.8%。

We are applying for foreign investments approval from the Danish government.

我們正在向丹麥政府申請外國投資批准。

And when we have that in place, we will increase to around 10%.

當我們做到這一點時，我們將增加到 10% 左右。

And beyond that, there are no current plans to do more.

除此之外，目前沒有計劃採取更多行動。

On your question on Empire Wind, yes.

關於你關於帝國風的問題，是的。

So 2024 is the year of derisking that asset.

因此，2024 年是消除該資產風險的一年。

And what we have gotten so far, we have got a new price contract in place.

到目前為止，我們已經簽訂了一份新的價格合約。

Price has increased from $118 to $155 per megawatt hour.

價格從每兆瓦時 118 美元上漲至 155 美元。

We have completed permitting and are well underway in sort of developing it.

我們已經完成了許可，並且正在順利進行開發中。

And we are now approaching financial close of the project.

我們現在即將完成該專案的財務結算。

So we expect that to be a few weeks down the road and happening before year-end as such.

因此，我們預計這將在幾週後並在年底之前發生。

So then that asset will be derisked.

那麼該資產將被消除風險。

We also said at the Capital Markets update in February that we intended to farm down Empire Wind, and that is the plan to farm it down for the second time.

我們也在二月的資本市場更新中表示，我們打算將 Empire Wind 下放，這是第二次下放的計畫。

And when that is done, CapEx related to Empire Wind will go significantly down, such an impact on CapEx going forward.

完成此操作後，與 Empire Wind 相關的資本支出將大幅下降，這對未來的資本支出產生了影響。

That was a long answer, Biraj, but you had three very important questions.

比拉吉，這個答案很長，但你提出了三個非常重要的問題。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, Sparebank 1 Markets.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen，Sparebank 1 市場。

Yeah, I think regarding Orsted, it was a pretty good answer, so I don't want ask more about that.

是的，我認為關於 Orsted，這是一個非常好的答案，所以我不想詢問更多。

I'm wondering on the gas market now.

我現在想知道天然氣市場。

We see pretty healthy long-term gas prices or at least reported [currently] $12 to $13 per MMBtu.

我們認為長期天然氣價格相當健康，或至少[目前]報告為每 MMBtu 12 至 13 美元。

I just wonder, are you tempted around hedging some of the gas sales or selling on fixed price contracts?

我只是想知道，您是否想對沖部分天然氣銷售或以固定價格合約進行銷售？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Second question, that is risk on production guidance for the full year for the oil and gas production.

第二個問題，全年油氣生產指導風險。

Torgrim, you said that there's some downside risk and you said the same in the second quarter presentation.

托格瑞姆，您說過存在一些下行風險，並且您在第二季度的演示中也說過同樣的事情。

I just wonder how you view that risk now compared to three months ago.

我只是想知道與三個月前相比，您現在如何看待這種風險。

It looks like some of the production, maybe, has come up again.

看起來有些作品也許又重新上來了。

Any comments around that would be useful.

任何有關該問題的評論都會很有用。

All right, Teodor.

好吧，特奧多。

So gas prices are currently, as you say, around $13 per MMBtu and sort of in line with what we have sort of believed as sort of the price for this year.

因此，正如您所說，目前天然氣價格約為每 MMBtu 13 美元，與我們認為的今年價格基本一致。

And maybe a few reflections on the level because, I mean, it was a warm winter, and we are working with very high gas storages.

也許對這個水平有一些反思，因為，我的意思是，那是一個溫暖的冬天，而且我們正在使用非常高的天然氣儲存。

And still, the price is at sort of $13 per MMBtu.

儘管如此，價格仍為每 MMBtu 13 美元。

So it's sort of clearly tells a story about a vulnerable situation in the gas markets as such.

因此，這在某種程度上清楚地講述了天然氣市場脆弱狀況的故事。

So the moving parts to watch out for here is clearly Asian demand for LNG.

因此，這裡需要關注的動態因素顯然是亞洲對液化天然氣的需求。

And remember, 50% of gas needed in Asia needs to come from import, same as in Europe.

請記住，亞洲所需的天然氣 50% 需要來自進口，與歐洲相同。

So Europe and Asia will compete for this, and we see a growing demand, particularly from China this year, and we see that continue with around 3% per year all the way to 2030, actually.

因此，歐洲和亞洲將為此展開競爭，我們看到需求不斷增長，尤其是今年來自中國的需求，而且我們看到，實際上，到2030 年，這種需求將以每年3% 左右的速度增長。

So that's clearly one thing to watch.

所以這顯然是值得關注的一件事。

The second one is weather.

第二個是天氣。

We all know about that.

我們都知道這一點。

And a normal winter would actually leave gas storages around 40% full in April compared to 60% this year as such.

正常的冬季實際上會使 4 月天然氣儲存庫充滿 40% 左右，而今年則為 60%。

So that will have an impact on prices during the winter.

因此，這將對冬季的價格產生影響。

And then, of course, Ukrainian gas and operational issues, of course.

當然，還有烏克蘭天然氣和營運問題。

On your question specifically, no, we're not going to hedge.

具體就你的問題而言，不，我們不會進行對沖。

I want our owners and investors to get the exposure to European gas when they buy the share with us.

我希望我們的所有者和投資者在購買我們的股份時能夠接觸到歐洲天然氣。

And as you know, we keep our exposure at 70% day ahead and 30% month ahead.

如您所知，我們將提前風險敞口保持在 70%，提前風險敞口保持在 30%。

So if you see volatility in the European gas prices, you can rest assure that it translates into earnings with us.

因此，如果您看到歐洲天然氣價格波動，您可以放心，它會轉化為我們的收益。

And very important for us that we keep the machine ready to manage this.

對我們來說非常重要的是，我們要讓機器做好管理這項任務的準備。

We have increased production capacity in the Troll gas value chain.

我們提高了 Troll 天然氣價值鏈的產能。

We have access to all their landing points.

我們可以進入他們所有的著陸點。

And we have a trading organization that is ready to take out any arbitrage opportunities that may arise.

我們有一個交易組織，隨時準備好抓住可能出現的任何套利機會。

So we are not planning to hedge.

所以我們不打算進行對沖。

We want you and other investors to have the full exposure to the value creation opportunities that comes from volatility.

我們希望您和其他投資者能夠充分利用波動性所帶來的價值創造機會。

There was one more, sorry.

還有一個，抱歉。

So yeah, there is still some uncertainty on curtailment in the US, so that might have impact on gas production in the US.

所以，是的，美國的限電仍然存在一些不確定性，因此這可能會對美國的天然氣產量產生影響。

I think it's fair to say that with the current gas prices in the US, they are up a little bit, but the earnings impact is less than sort of gas production on the NCS for the time being.

我認為可以公平地說，就美國目前的天然氣價格而言，價格略有上漲，但對盈利的影響暫時小於 NCS 的天然氣生產。

There is a little bit downside compared to what we have guided, but we have decided to keep it in a way, the stable production as we call it.

與我們指導的相比，有一點缺點，但我們決定以某種方式保持它，即我們所說的穩定生產。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

Two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。

I was hoping you could give us an update on the Rosebank project.

我希望你能給我們介紹羅斯班克計畫的最新情況。

I understand there is a court case going on.

據我所知，有一起法庭案件正在審理中。

And also I was interested in your latest view with regards to the tax treatment.

我也對您對稅收待遇的最新看法感興趣。

So if you could say a few words about that project, that would be great.

因此，如果您能簡單介紹一下該項目，那就太好了。

And the second question I wanted to ask relates to CapEx.

我想問的第二個問題與資本支出有關。

Of course, there is a small tweak downwards for this year.

當然，今年略有下調。

I guess we'll have to wait for the full-year results announcement.

我想我們必須等待全年業績公佈。

But I was wondering if -- in the comments that you made, we could also start to expect that this tweak downward for 2025 would roll over into -- sorry, for 2024 would roll over into future years, into 2025 and beyond.

但我想知道——在您發表的評論中，我們是否也可以開始預期 2025 年的這種向下調整將延續到——抱歉，2024 年將延續到未來幾年，延續到 2025 年及以後。

I was hoping you could say a few words about that.

我希望你能就此說幾句話。

Okay.

好的。

Martijn.

馬丁。

So on the Rosebank, it is, at the outset, a good and robust project.

因此，在羅斯班克，它從一開始就是一個良好而穩健的項目。

It is a very important project for the UK, 1,600 jobs and actually GBP24 billion in economic impact.

這對英國來說是一個非常重要的項目，將創造 1,600 個就業崗位，並帶來 240 億英鎊的實際經濟影響。

So for the UK, it is a very, very important project, both from an energy security point of view and also for economic activity over there.

因此，對於英國來說，無論從能源安全的角度還是從那裡的經濟活動的角度來看，這都是一個非常非常重要的項目。

But clearly, there is uncertainty related to the project.

但顯然，該項目存在不確定性。

And let me first talk about on the tax side.

首先讓我談談稅收方面。

As an investor, it is very important to us to have stable tax conditions and predictable conditions.

作為投資者，擁有穩定的稅收條件和可預測的條件對我們來說非常重要。

So what has happened lately, we see that clearly as negative and increases the risk of investing in the UK.

因此，最近發生的事情，我們認為這顯然是負面的，並且增加了在英國投資的風險。

There is -- when it comes to the EPL, labor has announced that they want to increase the rate by 3 percentage points and also extend the time of the EPL a little bit.

說到英超聯賽，工黨宣布他們希望將利率提高3個百分點，並稍微延長英超聯賽的時間。

So that is something that we are aware of.

這是我們所知道的。

What we do see in sort of the earlier statement is that they are not going to change capital allowance, which is very important for investors in the UK.

我們從先前的聲明中確實看到，他們不會改變資本津貼，這對英國投資者來說非常重要。

But we have to wait until 30th of October when the budget is released, and there will be clarity around this, but the decision and what comes through the budget will define the attractiveness of future investments in the UK.

但我們必須等到 10 月 30 日預算發佈時，這一點才會變得清晰，但預算中的決定和內容將決定英國未來投資的吸引力。

So that's on the tax side.

這是在稅收方面。

On the legal case, there is a judicial review related to Scope 3 emissions related to the asset and the permitting given where the court decided that that was not sufficiently taken care of.

在法律案件中，存在與資產相關的範圍 3 排放相關的司法審查以及法院認為沒有充分考慮的情況下所給予的許可。

So we are awaiting clarifications on that to proceed.

因此，我們正在等待對此的澄清以繼續進行。

And we do believe we will get that and that we will be able to continue with the project under the same assumption that we have done earlier.

我們確實相信我們會實現這一點，並且我們將能夠在與之前所做的相同假設下繼續該專案。

Expected start-up of Rosebank is in 2027.

Rosebank 預計於 2027 年啟動。

Then your second question was on CapEx.

那你的第二個問題是關於資本支出的。

Yes, so we are taking down the guiding from around $13 billion to $12 billion, $13 billion.

是的，所以我們將指導價從 130 億美元左右降低到 120 億美元，130 億美元。

So there are three elements there.

所以那裡有三個要素。

One is sort of some phasing of the CapEx.

一是資本支出的某種階段性。

But in reality, just payments that are coming sort of a little bit later in the life of the project than earlier.

但實際上，只是在專案生命週期中付款的時間比之前稍晚。

It is related to currency changes, currency impact because the Norwegian projects have a certain Norwegian kroner content.

它與貨幣變化、貨幣影響有關，因為挪威計畫有一定的挪威克朗含量。

And as that has weakened, it sort of reduces the CapEx.

隨著這種情況的減弱，資本支出減少。

And the third one is lower investments related to onshore renewables.

第三個是與陸上再生能源相關的投資減少。

So these are three elements that sort of play into this.

所以這三個因素在某種程度上發揮了作用。

So sort of the phasing of investment is not a very significant part.

因此，分階段投資並不是一個非常重要的部分。

I mean, it's one of the three elements here, and sort of it is not unheard of or strange.

我的意思是，它是這裡的三個元素之一，而且它並不是聞所未聞或奇怪的。

We see that clearly time to time that phasing of payments differs.

我們清楚地看到，付款的階段有時會有所不同。

So there's no drama around this at all.

所以這根本沒有戲劇性。

And we will give an update, as you say, in February on the Capital Markets Day on how we see the coming years on investments.

正如您所說，我們將在二月的資本市場日提供最新情況，說明我們如何看待未來幾年的投資。

Henri Patricot, UBS.

亨利‧派崔克，瑞銀集團。

I have two questions, please.

我有兩個問題，請問。

The first one, just on results in the third quarter and with the unit cost in E&P US.

第一個是第三季的業績以及美國探勘與生產的單位成本。

International moving higher, and you mentioned there was the impact of maintenance in the quarter.

國際市場走高，您提到了本季維護的影響。

I wanted to get a sense of how much of the unit cost increase was driven by these kind of one-off effect or if there's -- and what's the share of the structural, let's say, cost increase?

我想了解有多少單位成本增加是由這種一次性效應所驅動的，或者是否存在——結構性成本增加所佔的份額是多少？

And then secondly, going back to the Johan Sverdrup comments, you mentioned the record production recently and the field coming off plateau early next year.

其次，回到約翰·斯維爾德魯普 (Johan Sverdrup) 的評論，您提到了最近創紀錄的產量以及明年初該油田將擺脫高原狀態。

Can you share any more details on what you expect in terms of your ability to slow down the pace of the decline next year and beyond.

您能否分享更多關於您對明年及以後減緩下降速度的能力的期望？

Anything that you could say would be helpful.

你能說的任何話都會有幫助。

All right.

好的。

Henri.

亨利.

So first on cost.

所以首先是成本。

So cost discipline and capital discipline is very, very important to us, and we work that very hard.

因此，成本紀律和資本紀律對我們來說非常非常重要，我們非常努力。

But clearly, we're not immune to inflation as such.

但顯然，我們並不能免於通貨膨脹的影響。

On a group level, we see growth in OpEx and SG&A of 3%.

在集團層面，我們看到 OpEx 和 SG&A 成長了 3%。

There are -- sort of the underlying cost increase is somewhat higher due to some one-offs in a way like underlift and also on the currency side and also some removal costs in there.

由於諸如昇力不足之類的一次性費用以及貨幣方面的一些一次性費用以及其中的一些清除成本，潛在的成本增加有些較高。

So I mean, it's -- but it's fairly stable, I would say.

所以我的意思是，它是——但我想說它相當穩定。

You had a specific question on the US cost, we see that OpEx and SG&A there is down 6% compared to last year, and that is due to lower transportation costs and linked to sort of volumes that are sort of lower this quarter.

您有一個關於美國成本的具體問題，我們發現營運支出和銷售管理費用與去年相比下降了 6%，這是由於運輸成本降低以及本季銷售下降所致。

I think in general, cost levels this quarter, if you measure it on a per barrel level, we have had a massive turnaround program, 104,000 barrels per day in the quarter.

我認為總的來說，本季的成本水平，如果以每桶水平來衡量，我們有一個大規模的周轉計劃，本季每天 104,000 桶。

And that has, of course, attracted the costs, and that is impacting this quarter cost.

當然，這會帶來成本，並影響本季的成本。

And if you divide it by barrels, sort of it is there.

如果你把它除以桶，它就在那裡。

But you also see that there is a stable unit production cost.

但你也看到單位生產成本是穩定的。

So we worked this very hard.

所以我們非常努力地工作。

Your second question, Henri, on Johan Sverdrup.

亨利，你的第二個問題是關於約翰‧斯維德魯普的。

Yeah.

是的。

So far so good.

到目前為止，一切都很好。

We see that we are now in a position where we can say that the plateau -- we will be on plateau until early 2025.

我們看到，我們現在所處的位置可以說是平穩期——直到 2025 年初，我們都將處於平穩期。

I think it's very important for me to say that we are not surprised at all that we will come off plateau in 2025.

我認為對我來說非常重要的是，我們對 2025 年擺脫困境一點也不感到驚訝。

It is a function of that we have invested in higher capacity at the 755,000 barrels per day, pushing cash flow and net present value higher, and that leads to that we will get off plateau earlier.

我們投資了更高的產能（每天 755,000 桶），推動現金流和淨現值更高，這導致我們將更早擺脫停滯狀態。

So this is as expected, but we actually are able to extend it somewhat.

所以這是符合預期的，但我們實際上可以稍微擴展它。

A couple of things here.

這裡有幾件事。

I mean, optimizing recovery rates and the reservoirs, that is really, really the core competence of this company, something that we have done for 50 years across the large assets on the shelf.

我的意思是，優化採收率和油藏，這確實是這家公司的核心競爭力，這是我們 50 年來在貨架上的大型資產上所做的事情。

So this is about optimizing water management.

所以這是關於優化水管理。

It is about drilling capabilities, reservoir management, and doing 4D seismic to really, really understand how everything works.

它涉及鑽井能力、油藏管理和進行 4D 地震，以真正真正了解一切是如何運作的。

So a little bit of status on what we're currently doing.

簡單介紹一下我們目前正在做的事情。

We are drilling.

我們正在鑽孔。

So by year-end, there will be 40 wells producing.

到年底，將有40口井生產。

Next year, we will start to retrofit some of these wells into multilaterals.

明年，我們將開始將其中一些井改造為多邊井。

I mean, taking one wellbore and then use that to spread into more.

我的意思是，先取一個井眼，然後用它擴展到更多井眼。

And we are also working on Johan Sverdrup Phase 3, where we expect to take what we call a DG2 towards the end of this year and maybe a startup of that towards the end of '27.

我們也致力於 Johan Sverdrup 第 3 階段，我們預計在今年年底推出 DG2，也許在 27 年底啟動該專案。

So this is as expected.

所以這也是預料之中的。

We are working this, of course, hard and applying all the competence we have in the company into this field.

當然，我們正在努力工作，並將公司擁有的所有能力運用到這一領域。

It is producing 756,000 barrels per day on maximum.

它每天最多生產 756,000 桶。

And just to put that in context, it's almost 1% of global supply on a daily basis from one asset on the NCS.

簡單來說，NCS 上的一項資產每天幾乎佔全球供應量的 1%。

So that just gives you a little bit of sense of the size of it, and you might hear a little bit of proudness in my voice saying that.

所以這只是讓你對它的規模有一點感覺，你可能會從我的聲音中聽到一點自豪。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆，花旗銀行。

Look, I'm sorry to come back on Orsted, but it is just so important.

聽著，我很抱歉回到奧斯特德，但這非常重要。

As I understand that you've gone through a strategic review on the renewables business, you followed the lead of what you did on FLX and you physically moved that business outside of HQ to force it to be more competitive.

據我了解，您已經對再生能源業務進行了策略審查，您遵循了 FLX 所做的工作，並將該業務實際移至總部之外，以迫使其更具競爭力。

Can you talk about how the decision to invest in Orsted has really come about from the strategic review?

您能談談投資Orsted的決定是如何真正從策略評估中產生的嗎？

Acquisitions in my experience, are normally done because companies feel they have a shortfall in portfolio or expertise.

根據我的經驗，收購通常是因為公司認為他們的投資組合或專業知識短缺而進行的。

Kind of what is it?

到底是什麼東西呢？

I'm just trying to connect the dots between where Equinor thought it was 12, 24 months ago and where the strategy seems to be now?

我只是想把 Equinor 12、24 個月前的想法與現在的策略連結起來？

Okay.

好的。

Alastair.

阿拉斯泰爾。

So we are very much driven by that the investments and the strategy that we pursue needs to create value for our shareholders.

因此，我們追求的投資和策略需要為股東創造價值，這在很大程度上推動了我們的發展。

That is sort of where it all starts.

這就是一切開始的地方。

And typically, the way we do that is that we operate, develop and put into production assets like we are now doing with sort of Empire Wind, Dogger Bank and Baltic.

通常，我們這樣做的方式是營運、開發資產並將其投入生產資產，就像我們現在對 Empire Wind、Dogger Bank 和 Baltic 所做的那樣。

So that is sort of the main model of value creation.

這就是價值創造的主要模式。

And all of these three are delivering attractive equity returns on the money that we invest.

這三者都為我們的投資帶來了誘人的股權回報。

But from time to time, we see that there are opportunities to do something differently, and that is what we also see here, where there is a way to build and deliver on the strategy in a more value creative way.

但有時，我們會看到有機會做一些不同的事情，這也是我們在這裡看到的，有一種方法可以以更有價值的創造性方式建構和實施策略。

We see that for the time being, it is very expensive to acquire seabed leases.

我們看到，目前獲得海底租賃的成本非常昂貴。

There is very high inflation within the renewable business and there are clear bottlenecks in the supply chains as such.

再生能源產業的通貨膨脹率非常高，供應鏈本身也存在明顯的瓶頸。

So comparing that with acquiring 10% in Orsted, Orsted is clearly coming across as a better way to deliver on the strategy and deliver on the growth over the next few years.

因此，與收購 Orsted 10% 的股份相比，Orsted 顯然是一種更好的方式來實現策略並實現未來幾年的成長。

But I think it's also very, very important to get timing right.

但我認為把握正確的時機也非常非常重要。

And we have time to wait for better investment climate in some of the offshore wind opportunities.

我們有時間等待一些離岸風電機機會的更好的投資環境。

It will come, but for the time being, we are doing some changes organizationally to focus our business development activity, to reduce our cost levels and set ourselves up for playing this in the long run as such.

它會到來，但目前，我們正在組織上進行一些變革，以集中我們的業務開發活動，降低我們的成本水平，並為長期發展做好準備。

So that's sort of the thought process going into this.

這就是我們的思考過程。

So Torgrim, can I just ask you, obviously, an alternative would have been not to make the investment in Orsted at all, right?

那麼托格瑞姆，我可以問你嗎，顯然，另一個選擇就是根本不投資奧斯特德，對吧？

So I get the comparison versus organic seabed leases, but there could be an alternative to say, okay, we're not going to make this acquisition, and we'll do a pause on the renewable strategy overall.

因此，我得到了與有機海底租賃的比較，但可能還有另一種選擇，好吧，我們不會進行這次收購，我們將暫停整體再生能源策略。

And then clearly, when we do see a good investment opportunity, we do like to pursue it as well.

很明顯，當我們確實看到一個好的投資機會時，我們也願意去追求它。

And sort of the challenges that the offshore wind industry is currently living through has been reflected in the share price of Orsted, and we see this as a good time to take a 10% share in the company.

離岸風電產業目前面臨的一些挑戰已經反映在 Orsted 的股價中，我們認為這是持有該公司 10% 股份的好時機。

We have a very long-term sort of perspective on that investment, and we are very sure that that will deliver good value to our shareholders over time.

我們對這項投資有著非常長遠的看法，我們非常確信，隨著時間的推移，這將為我們的股東帶來良好的價值。

Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾，桑坦德銀行。

Yes.

是的。

The first one is, again -- sorry, about the Orsted.

第一個是——抱歉，關於奧斯特德。

In the comments, you are talking about that Orsted, the optionality is cheaper than investments in greenfield projects.

在評論中，您談論的是 Orsted，其選擇性比綠地項目的投資便宜。

That's interesting.

那很有意思。

But are there any conversations or projects ongoing to develop together with Orsted and some projects?

但是是否有任何對話或專案正在與 Orsted 和一些專案一起開發？

Orsted has a very big pipeline of projects could be interesting as well.

Orsted 擁有大量的項目，也可能很有趣。

So that will be the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And the second question is about -- in general, looking at your comments about uncertainty on the offshore wind, also the possibility of some delays in projects like Rosebank, all the roads lead to higher distributions next year.

第二個問題是——總的來說，看看你對離岸風電不確定性的評論，以及羅斯班克等項目延遲的可能性，所有的道路都會導致明年更高的分佈。

Can you elaborate on the outlook for '25 share buybacks, also looking at your strong balance sheet?

您能否詳細說明 '25 股票回購的前景，同時看看您強勁的資產負債表？

That will be the question.

這就是問題所在。

Okay.

好的。

Alejandro.

亞歷杭德羅.

Yes.

是的。

So we -- around 10% in Orsted.

所以我們——大約 10% 在 Orsted。

That's sort of what we have done.

這就是我們所做的。

And sort of there are no further current plans.

目前還沒有進一步的計劃。

And that also covers doing projects together as such.

這也包括一起做專案。

So we will operate as two separate companies and do that.

因此，我們將作為兩家獨立的公司運作並做到這一點。

So there's no plans for that.

所以沒有這方面的計劃。

On your question on if there is an outlook for an attractive capital distribution next year.

關於明年是否有有吸引力的資本分配前景的問題。

The answer to that is, yes.

答案是肯定的。

We have said that next year, you should expect capital distribution to be between $8 billion and $10 billion, where the composition is a cash dividend of $0.35 per share, and we have said it's going to grow with $0.02 per year.

我們已經說過，明年的資本分配預計將在 80 億美元到 100 億美元之間，其中每股現金股息為 0.35 美元，而且我們已經說過，資本分配將以每年 0.02 美元的速度增長。

And on top of that, a share buyback between $4 billion and $6 billion.

除此之外，還有 40 億至 60 億美元的股票回購。

So that is what we have said.

這就是我們所說的。

And this is something that we have clearly tested against all price scenarios and all of that.

我們已經針對所有價格場景等進行了明確的測試。

So you should consider that as an important commitment from our side.

因此，您應該將其視為我們方面的重要承諾。

Beyond that, it is very important to us to be able to provide our owners with an attractive capital distribution, but this is not the time and place to talk about that.

除此之外，能夠為我們的所有者提供有吸引力的資本分配對我們來說非常重要，但現在不是談論這個的時間和地點。

But next year, $8 billion to $10 billion.

但明年將達到 80 億至 100 億美元。

Yoann Charenton, Bernstein.

約安‧查倫頓，伯恩斯坦。

Yes.

是的。

It looks like the net debt ratio will not have turned positive by year-end 2024, which is your guidance without this Orsted deal, which you said will have a roughly 5% impact on the net debt ratio.

看起來淨負債率到 2024 年底不會轉為正數，這是您在沒有 Orsted 交易的情況下的指導，您說這將對淨負債率產生大約 5% 的影響。

As such, are you able to comment on the implications this had from an M&A perspective and especially in terms of budget that was made available to your M&A activity from this side perspective?

因此，您能否從併購角度評論這方面的影響，特別是從這方面角度為您的併購活動提供的預算？

And ultimately, was turning into a net debt position by year-end, your financial year's most important guidance item from your perspective as the CFO.

最終，到年底轉變為淨債務頭寸，從您作為財務長的角度來看，這是您財政年度最重要的指導項目。

Can you repeat the final sentence, Yoann?

你能重複最後一句話嗎，Yoann？

It was a bit hard to hear.

有點難聽。

Sure.

當然。

So final sentence is, ultimately, when thinking about the question I just raised was this expectation of turning into a net debt position by year-end the most important guidance item as part of this year guidance from the perspective of the CFO.

因此，最後一句話最終是，當思考我剛才提出的問題時，從財務長的角度來看，到年底轉變為淨債務部位的預期是今年指導中最重要的指導項目。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, Yoann.

好吧，約安。

Yeah.

是的。

So what we said at the beginning of the year was that we expected net debt to move into positive territory by year-end, and that was without taking into account an Orsted acquisition, and this is still valid.

因此，我們在今年年初所說的是，我們預計到年底淨債務將進入正值，而且這沒有考慮 Orsted 的收購，這仍然有效。

So this year has developed according to plan and according to what we said at the Capital Markets Day, both on cash flow from operations and also from a net debt perspective.

因此，今年無論是從營運現金流還是從淨債務角度來看，都按照計劃和我們在資本市場日所說的情況發展。

On top of this, the Orsted acquisition will add around 5 percentage points to the net debt.

除此之外，收購 Orsted 將使淨負債增加約 5 個百分點。

I think it is important for me to say that when your net debt ratio is around zero, it becomes very volatile.

我認為對我來說重要的是，當你的淨負債比率接近零時，它就會變得非常不穩定。

So small changes can actually change the percentages quite a bit.

因此，微小的變化實際上可以極大地改變百分比。

But that's all of the best guiding I can give for the time being that is 5% related to Orsted.

但這是我目前能給出的所有最好的指導，其中 5% 與 Orsted 相關。

Then I would say that going forward, it is important for us to run with a conservative balance sheet and a conservative financing.

然後我想說，展望未來，我們以保守的資產負債表和保守的融資方式運作非常重要。

And that is, of course, to be prepared for volatility going forward.

當然，這是為未來的波動做好準備。

We have talked about higher prices, but of course, we cannot exclude lower prices, and sort of managing the balance sheet is an important part of doing exactly that.

我們已經討論了更高的價格，但當然，我們不能排除更低的價格，而管理資產負債表是做到這一點的重要組成部分。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Two questions actually, follow-ups on what we've already had.

其實有兩個問題，是我們已有問題的後續問題。

But just going back to the balance sheet, obviously, I take your point that sort of you move into a slightly -- you've net debt position towards the end of the year.

但回到資產負債表，顯然，我同意你的觀點，即你在年底時的淨債務部位略有增加。

But where is the balance sheet now versus where you thought it would be at the start of the year?

但現在的資產負債表與您年初時的預期相比如何？

Because clearly, I think prices of both oil and gas have been a little bit better than you thought the CapEx guidance has come down a bit.

因為顯然，我認為石油和天然氣的價格比您想像的要好一些，資本支出指引有所下降。

So it's just kind of where you are versus where you thought you would be at this stage?

所以這只是你現在所處的位置與你認為現階段會處於的位置之間的關係？

And then if I come back to the Orsted stuff, I'm sorry to belabor this point, but it doesn't actually give you cash at this point because you don't have the dividend.

然後，如果我回到 Orsted 的事情，我很抱歉要詳細說明這一點，但此時它實際上並沒有給你現金，因為你沒有股息。

So when you're thinking about this investment, is this idea that you become a long-term shareholder and this is something you want to hold for the next 5, 10 years?

那麼，當你考慮這項投資時，你是否會成為長期股東，並且你想在未來 5 年、10 年持有它？

I'm just trying to understand kind of where -- back to the point of there was probably other things you could have spent $2.5 billion on versus this.

我只是想了解一下，與此相比，您可能還可以在其他事情上花費 25 億美元。

So -- on particularly something that doesn't give you cash in near term is something I'm still a little bit confused about on that capital allocation cycle.

因此，特別是那些短期內不會為你帶來現金的事情，我在資本配置週期上仍然有點困惑。

So sorry to belabor those 2 points again.

很抱歉再次強調這兩點。

So the balance sheet is developing according to what we believed in the beginning of the year.

因此，資產負債表正在按照我們年初的預期發展。

Prices have been a little bit up and down.

價格略有上漲和下跌。

Gas price has been sort of a little bit lower and also oil prices, but then we have seen sort of a reduction in working capital as well as a function of lower prices.

天然氣價格和石油價格都有點低，但隨後我們看到了營運資本的減少以及價格下降的影響。

So those things hang together.

所以這些事情是連在一起的。

So I would say that we are actually pretty spot on what we believed in the beginning of the year.

所以我想說，我們其實非常符合我們年初的信念。

On your last question, Lydia, the cash flow, yes.

關於你的最後一個問題，莉迪亞，現金流，是的。

So Orsted is currently in sort of what they call a dividend holiday.

因此，奧斯特德目前正處於所謂的股息假期。

I think clearly, it will be for the Orsted management to speak to how they think about that.

我清楚地認為，將由奧斯特德管理層來表達他們對此的看法。

But to be more precise on your question, yes, we are a long-term holder of shares in Orsted.

但更準確地說，是的，我們是 Orsted 股票的長期持有者。

We know the issues within the industry fairly well, I dare to say.

我敢說，我們非常了解業界的問題。

We have a trust in that management will deal with those in a very good way.

我們相信管理層會以非常好的方式處理這些問題。

And we're also very certain that Orsted will come out as a strong company when things normalize in this industry and a leading company as such.

我們也非常確定，當這個行業的情況正常化時，Orsted 將成為一家強大的公司，並且成為一家領先的公司。

And therefore, we do see a good value creation opportunity as a shareholder.

因此，作為股東，我們確實看到了良好的價值創造機會。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑弗里斯。

Yes.

是的。

And apologies, I have to ask again about Orsted.

抱歉，我不得不再次詢問有關奧斯特德的事情。

First question is about your comment you had in the press release a few weeks back.

第一個問題是關於您幾週前在新聞稿中發表的評論。

You mentioned that you won't seek a Board representation.

您提到您不會尋求董事會代表。

This is obviously a sizable investment.

這顯然是一筆相當大的投資。

You talked about the importance of getting timing right in projects.

您談到了在專案中把握正確時機的重要性。

Orsted doesn't have the best track record in terms of execution and management has been volatile.

奧斯特德在執行方面沒有最好的記錄，而且管理也不穩定。

Just wanted to understand why you think it wouldn't be helpful to seek a Board representation (technical difficulty) question is, as you are aware, there are some concerns around also the ability to fund its growth portfolio.

只是想了解為什麼您認為尋求董事會代表（技術難度）沒有幫助，問題是，正如您所知，圍繞為其成長投資組合提供資金的能力也存在一些擔憂。

Will you consider injecting equity into Orsted if needed at some point in the future?

如果未來某個時候需要的話，您會考慮向 Orsted 注入股權嗎？

You talked about -- you ruled out plans to do further investments in Orsted, including doing projects together, but does that include potential for additional funding in the future?

您談到——您排除了對 Orsted 進行進一步投資的計劃，包括共同開展項目，但這是否包括未來獲得額外資金的潛力？

Yeah, no.

是的，不。

So we are now a shareholder of 9.8%.

所以我們現在是9.8%的股東。

And after approvals have been given, we are going to be around 10%.

獲得批准後，我們的比例將達到 10% 左右。

And we are a long-term holder of shares, and we have not been seeking Board representation as part of this.

我們是股票的長期持有者，我們並沒有尋求董事會代表作為其中的一部分。

And there are no current plans to do that either.

目前也沒有計劃這樣做。

But clearly, we know the company well.

但顯然，我們很了解這家公司。

We know the management well also.

我們也很了解管理階層。

So I mean, clearly, there is -- natural to have a dialogue with management around topics as a shareholder.

所以我的意思是，身為股東，顯然，與管理階層就相關議題進行對話是很自然的。

That's like everyone else are having.

就像其他人都經歷過的那樣。

Then on your last question, Orsted ability to finance.

然後關於你的最後一個問題，Orsted 的財務能力。

I would advise to ask the Orsted management around their outlook for that.

我建議向 Orsted 管理層詢問他們對此的看法。

And I think that's sort of the place where those questions needs to be managed as such.

我認為這就是需要對這些問題進行管理的地方。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Torgrim, congratulations on getting Northern Lights on stream.

托格瑞姆，恭喜北極光上線。

I was wondering in terms of your future carbon capture strategy, you are one of the leaders in the industry.

我想知道您未來的碳捕獲策略，您是該行業的領導者之一。

Where do you see the most attractive returns from here?

您認為哪裡的回報最有吸引力？

Is it in the US with the IRA and the huge network of industrial plants, especially on the Gulf Coast, or do you see it in Europe with effectively further expansion in Norway?

是在美國，有愛爾蘭共和軍和龐大的工業工廠網絡，特別是在墨西哥灣沿岸，還是在歐洲，在挪威，它實際上進一步擴張？

And then if you forgive me, one more question on Orsted.

如果您能原諒我，我還有一個關於奧斯特德的問題。

When I think back to the very successful investment you did at the time in Lundin, you ultimately exchanged a big part of that stake for an asset, which was more ownership in Johan Sverdrup, which proved to be the right choice.

當我回想起您當時在倫丁所做的非常成功的投資時，您最終將大部分股權換成了一項資產，即約翰·斯維爾德魯普的更多所有權，事實證明這是正確的選擇。

I'm wondering, is there any plan here to farm into some of Orsted assets?

我想知道，這裡是否有計劃種植一些 Orsted 資產？

Are some of those assets potentially interested to you?

您可能對其中一些資產感興趣嗎？

Or it's more just thinking about the value of the overall company as a long-term investor?

或者作為長期投資者更多地只是考慮整個公司的價值？

Okay, Michele.

好吧，米歇爾。

So first on Northern Lights, yes.

首先是北極光，是的。

So that is now ready to receive CO2, and we are glad to see that, and it will be an important project for establishing CCS value chains.

現在已經準備好接收二氧化碳了，我們很高興看到這一點，這將是建立 CCS 價值鏈的重要項目。

Then we do see that the CCS strategy is moving forward in a very positive manner.

然後我們確實看到CCS戰略正在以非常積極的方式向前發展。

And I would actually say that the speed within CCS is very different than hydrogen.

事實上，我想說 CCS 內的速度與氫氣有很大不同。

So hydrogen is slowing down while CCS is moving forward.

因此，氫的發展正在放緩，而 CCS 正在向前發展。

Your question was where we see sort of attractive returns.

你的問題是我們在哪裡看到了有吸引力的回報。

And we do see that in the US, and we also see that in Europe, clearly.

我們確實在美國看到了這一點，在歐洲也清楚地看到了這一點。

In the US, you have a lot of single point of emissions very closely located and also very close to reservoirs where we can store them.

在美國，有許多單點排放點的位置非常接近，也非常靠近我們可以儲存它們的水庫。

And we have a storage position there in the Bayou Bend, which we see clearly gives attractive returns.

我們在河灣灣有一個儲存位置，我們清楚地看到它能帶來誘人的回報。

On sort of CCS or the CO2 highway, as we call it, from the European continent to the Norwegian continental shelf, that is also progressing.

在某種 CCS 或我們所說的二氧化碳高速公路上，從歐洲大陸到挪威大陸架，這也在取得進展。

Currently, we have the Smeaheia reservoir with capacity to inject maybe 20 million tonnes per year and also the plan for building this pipeline from the continent, which also can transport 25 million to 30 million tonnes per year.

目前，我們的Smeaheia水庫每年可注入2,000萬噸，並計劃從非洲大陸建造這條管道，每年可輸送2,500萬噸至3,000萬噸。

That will be a 1,000 kilometer pipeline, by the way.

順便說一句，這將是一條 1,000 公里長的管道。

And this is progressing, and we expect our pipeline like that to be on stream and operating around 2030.

這一切正在取得進展，我們預計這樣的管道將在 2030 年左右投入運作。

So this is a value chain that doesn't need very much support to really get going, and we do see that this is a place where we can gain attractive returns and when sort of value chain like this is built, clearly, that creates a lot of opportunities to further value creation as well.

因此，這是一條不需要太多支持就能真正啟動的價值鏈，我們確實看到，這是一個我們可以獲得有吸引力回報的地方，當建立這樣的價值鏈時，顯然，這會創造一個也有很多進一步創造價值的機會。

So we are optimistic, different mechanisms in Europe and the US, but we do see attractive returns in both places.

因此，我們對歐洲和美國的不同機制持樂觀態度，但我們確實看到這兩個地方都有有吸引力的回報。

On your last question, I'm sorry, Michele, I'm going to give you a very boring answer, and that is that we have acquired 10% share in Orsted and there are no current plans to do anything else.

關於你的最後一個問題，很抱歉，米歇爾，我將給你一個非常無聊的答案，那就是我們已經收購了 Orsted 10% 的股份，目前沒有計劃做任何其他事情。

We are fast approaching the hour, but we'd like to cover as many as possible.

時間很快就到了，但我們希望涵蓋盡可能多的內容。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

金‧福斯蒂爾，匯豐銀行。

I'll keep it to one then.

那我就把它保留為一。

I just wanted to ask about the recent cancellation of the blue hydrogen project and hydrogen pipeline to Germany with RWE.

我只是想問一下最近取消的藍氫計畫和萊茵集團通往德國的氫氣管道。

Could you maybe talk about why the project wasn't viable?

您能否談談為什麼該項目不可行？

And what is next for your hydrogen plans?

您的氫計劃下一步是什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Kim.

謝謝，金。

Yes.

是的。

We do believe that blue hydrogen is going to be very important for Europe.

我們確實相信藍氫對歐洲將非常重要。

And we also do believe that needs to be significant before any green hydrogen can actually be viable as such.

我們也確實相信，在任何綠色氫能真正可行之前，這一點都必須是重要的。

For a blue hydrogen value chain to work, there are three things that really needs to be in place.

要讓藍氫價值鏈發揮作用，真正需要做好三件事。

One is there needs to be an economic framework for investing into it.

一是需要有一個對其進行投資的經濟框架。

The second is there needs to be a customer base.

第二是要有一定的客戶群。

And I would say actually a significant customer base to lift an investment like this.

我想說的是，實際上有一個重要的客戶群來提升這樣的投資。

And the third one is actually a well-functioning market to do that.

第三個其實是一個運作良好的市場來做到這一點。

And I'm sorry to say, none of these are in place sufficiently to justify an investment like this.

我很遺憾地說，這些都不足以證明這樣的投資是合理的。

So that is the reason that things are going slower than we had hoped.

這就是事情進展比我們希望的要慢的原因。

And we think we are all better in actually maybe thinking are there different ways of creating a blue hydrogen value chain in Europe.

我們認為，我們實際上可能更好地思考是否有不同的方式在歐洲創建藍色氫價值鏈。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬特‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Torgrim, I wonder whether you could just talk about the extent to which Orsted marks a broader and structural shift in Equinor's strategy and capital allocation to buy overbuild in the extent to which that could be applied more widely now across its low carbon and renewable growth?

Torgrim，我想知道您能否談談Orsted 在多大程度上標誌著Equinor 的戰略和資本配置發生了更廣泛的結構性轉變，以購買過度建設，而這種轉變現在可以在其低碳和可再生成長中更廣泛地應用？

So first of all, there are no current plans to do more.

首先，目前沒有計劃採取更多行動。

We are a 10% holder of shares.

我們持有 10% 的股份。

But on your question, I can answer that more generally.

但對於你的問題，我可以更籠統地回答。

And that is that sort of the energy transition, whether that is sort of within renewables and low-carbon solutions, typically will take a different approach to how we own, finance and govern those businesses and assets.

這就是這種能源轉型，無論是在再生能源還是低碳解決方案中，通常都會採取不同的方法來擁有、融資和管理這些企業和資產。

And you have seen us acquiring companies like Rio Energy, like Vento, like Noriker and a few others.

你已經看到我們收購了 Rio Energy、Vento、Noriker 等公司。

And Danske Commodities, of course, and BeGreen so it is a more complex picture in the way we want to own and govern these businesses as such.

當然還有 Danske Commodities，還有 BeGreen，因此我們希望擁有和管理這些企業的方式更加複雜。

So if anything, there's a trend there

所以如果有的話，那就是有一種趨勢

Anders Rosenlund, SEB.

安德斯·羅森倫德，SEB。

It's Anders here from SEB.

我是 SEB 的安德斯。

Torgrim, you are working for the company, and the company is working for the shareholders.

托格瑞姆，你是在為公司工作，公司也是為股東工作。

So I was just curious if you could say something about the feedback the company has received from various stakeholders, preferably shareholders after the acquisition of Orsted, whether it's in general, is positive or whether you received questions that you didn't expect before making that investment.

因此，我很好奇您能否談談公司從各個利益相關者（最好是收購Orsted 後的股東）收到的反饋，無論是總體反饋還是積極反饋，或者您是否收到了您在做出反饋之前沒有預料到的問題投資。

So clearly, I spend quite a bit of my time on the road, meeting investors across Europe, US and other places.

很明顯，我花了相當多的時間在路上，會見歐洲、美國和其他地方的投資者。

And it would be wrong for me to sort of go into any details here.

我在這裡討論任何細節都是錯的。

But I think it's fair to say that there are different views on this acquisition.

但我認為公平地說，對於這次收購有不同的看法。

Some take the view that I can buy this stock myself or they are clearly curious about what is this, and others that this is probably a good opportunity to differentiate your delivery model for the energy transition.

有些人認為我可以自己買進這檔股票，或者他們顯然對這是什麼感到好奇，而有些人則認為這可能是個很好的機會來區分能源轉型的交付模式。

So I don't think I want to go further on that.

所以我想我不想在這個問題上更進一步。

But clearly, it has triggered a lot of interest and discussions.

但顯然，它引發了許多興趣和討論。

We have passed the one hour mark, and I want to be respectful of everybody's time.

我們已經過了一小時了，我想尊重每個人的時間。

Peter Low, Redburn.

彼得洛，雷德伯恩。

Yes, earlier this month, you announced some increases in CapEx or some of your projects, Johan Castberg, Oseberg, and Snohvit future.

是的，本月早些時候，您宣布增加資本支出或部分項目、Johan Castberg、Oseberg 和 Snohvit 的未來。

Your CapEx guidance for the year has actually come down.

您今年的資本支出指導實際上已經下降。

Can you just perhaps help explain kind of the moving parts there?

您能幫忙解釋一下那裡的活動部件嗎？

I know you mentioned currency and phasing, but yes, any extra color would help.

我知道你提到了貨幣和階段，但是是的，任何額外的顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, so we give an update to all the Norwegian projects in the national budget filing.

是的，所以我們在國家預算備案中更新了所有挪威項目。

And thereis sort of further transparency on that.

這方面還有進一步的透明度。

And there are some projects, as always, that have a slight increase in CapEx and there are others that have lower CapEx as such.

一如既往，有些項目的資本支出略有增加，而有些項目的資本支出則較低。

So the portfolio level, the sanctioned project portfolio is fairly stable as such, and that is also reflected in our CapEx guiding as such.

因此，投資組合水平，批准的專案投資組合相當穩定，這也反映在我們的資本支出指導中。

So there is no sort of trend or significant elements in that as we see it.

因此，正如我們所見，其中不存在任何趨勢或重要元素。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Thanks, Torgim, and thanks, everybody, for calling in.

謝謝托吉姆，也謝謝大家的來電。

I'm sorry we did not get full list, there was a lot of question, but IR team remains available.

很抱歉我們沒有得到完整的名單，有很多問題，但 IR 團隊仍然可以提供協助。

So if you have follow-up questions, please give us a call in the afternoon.

因此，如果您有後續問題，請在下午給我們打電話。

Thank you all for calling in this morning and have a good rest of the day.

感謝大家今天早上打電話，祝您今天休息愉快。