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BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Good morning to all, both here in the room in Oslo, and to all our participants online. Welcome to the presentation of Equinor's fourth quarter and full year results for 2025. My name is BÃ¥rd Glad Pedersen. I'm Head of Investor Relations in Equinor.
各位早安,無論是在奧斯陸會議室的各位,還是在線的各位參與者。歡迎參加 Equinor 2025 年第四季及全年業績發表會。我的名字是巴德·格拉德·佩德森。我是Equinor的投資人關係主管。
To those of you who are in the room, I want to inform you that there are no emergency drills planned for today, so if there is an alarm, we will evacuate and follow instructions.
在座的各位,我想通知你們,今天沒有安排任何緊急演習,所以如果警報響起,我們將疏散並聽從指示。
Today, we will have a presentation first from our CEO, Anders Opedal, followed by a presentation from our CFO, Torgrim Reitan. (Operator Instructions)
今天,我們將首先由執行長 Anders Opedal 作報告,然後由財務長 Torgrim Reitan 作報告。(操作說明)
So with that, I hand it to you, Anders, for your presentation.
那麼,現在我把發言權交給你,安德斯,請你來做報告。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much, BÃ¥rd, and thank you all for joining here in the room and thank you for participating on digital. So, for Equinor, 2025 was a year of strong deliveries, but it was also a year of increased geopolitical tension and market uncertainty. Our job is to ensure we allocate our, allocate our resources in a way that maintain a competitive business, creating value at all times.
非常感謝 Bård,也感謝各位親臨現場,感謝各位線上參與。因此,對 Equinor 而言,2025 年是交付量強勁的一年,但也是地緣政治緊張局勢加劇和市場不確定性增加的一年。我們的工作是確保我們合理分配資源,以保持業務競爭力,並始終創造價值。
Today, Torgrim and I will show how we take the necessary measures to further strengthen our competitiveness, cash flow, and robustness. This makes sure that we can navigate through and leverage market volatility and the current macro environment. So we have three key messages for you today.
今天,我和托格里姆將展示我們如何採取必要措施,進一步增強我們的競爭力、現金流和穩健性。這樣可以確保我們能夠應對和利用市場波動和當前的宏觀環境。今天我們有三個重要訊息要傳達給大家。
First, we are well positioned for maximizing long-term shareholder value. Today, we will share how clear strategic priorities guide capital allocation for 2026 and 2027, and we will revert at our capital market day in June to present our strategy towards 2030. Second, we take firm actions to strengthen free cash flow. We reduce our CapEx outlook with $4 billion and maintain strong cost discipline. This makes us more robust towards lower prices and ensure that we can maintain a solid balance sheet through the cycles.
首先,我們已做好充分準備,以最大限度地提高股東的長期價值。今天,我們將分享清晰的策略重點如何引導 2026 年和 2027 年的資本配置,我們將在 6 月的資本市場日上公佈我們 2030 年的策略。其次,我們採取果斷措施來增強自由現金流。我們將資本支出預期下調40億美元,並維持嚴格的成本控制。這使我們能夠更好地應對價格下跌,並確保我們能夠在周期性波動中保持穩健的資產負債表。
And third, we continue to develop an attractive portfolio, delivering oil and gas production growth. With this, we are prepared for volatility ahead. The energy transition is shifting gears in many markets, with governments and companies changing priorities.
第三,我們持續打造具有吸引力的投資組合,實現石油和天然氣產量成長。有了這些,我們就能應付未來的市場波動。能源轉型正在許多市場轉變,各國政府和企業都在改變優先事項。
Current oil prices are supported by geopolitical risk, but we are prepared for strong supply combined with moderate demand growth, putting pressure on the oil price in the near term. For gas, the European market has seen cold weather and high draw on storage in late December and in January. Storage levels are now around 40%, significantly below average for the last five years, and also lower than last year. We expect continued volatility ahead and more LNG coming to the market. In the US, low temperatures have driven up local demand and reduced exports of LNG.
當前油價受到地緣政治風險的支撐,但我們預期強勁的供應加上溫和的需求成長,將在短期內對油價造成壓力。天然氣方面,歐洲市場在12月下旬和1月經歷了寒冷天氣和高庫存消耗。目前庫存水準約為 40%,遠低於過去五年的平均水平,也低於去年同期水準。我們預計未來市場波動將持續,並且會有更多液化天然氣進入市場。在美國,低溫推高了當地對液化天然氣的需求,減少了液化天然氣的出口。
But before I progress any further, I will always start with safety. Despite fewer people being hurt and our safety numbers moving in the right direction, we still have serious incidents and need to improve. In September, a colleague was fatally injured during a lifting operation at Mongstad. A stark reminder that we cannot rest until everyone returns safely home from work every day. Our safety trend reflects years of good work from the people in our organisation and our suppliers. Safety remains our first priority.
但在進一步推進之前,我始終會把安全放在第一位。儘管受傷人數減少,安全數據也朝著正確的方向發展,但我們仍然會發生嚴重事故,需要改進。9 月,一名同事在蒙斯塔德的起重作業中不幸身亡。這鮮明地提醒我們,只有每天每個人都安全下班回家,我們才能安心。我們的安全趨勢反映了我們公司員工和供應商多年來的良好工作成果。安全始終是我們的首要任務。
Throughout 2025, we have delivered strong performance, despite geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation in the supply chain, and lower commodity prices. This results in all-time high record production, thanks to good operational performance and new fields on stream.
2025 年全年,儘管面臨地緣政治不確定性、供應鏈高通膨和大宗商品價格下跌等挑戰,我們依然取得了強勁的業績。由於良好的營運表現和新油田的投產,產量創歷史新高。
We have matured a competitive project portfolio across the Norwegian Continental Shelf and internationally. With Johan Castberg on stream, we open a new region in the Barents Sea. In Brazil, we started production from Bacalhau, the first pre-salt operatorship awarded to an international company. We continue high grading our portfolio, and we maintain cost and capital discipline.
我們在挪威大陸架和國際範圍內已經建立了一個具有競爭力的專案組合。隨著 Johan Castberg 的直播,我們開啟了巴倫支海的新區域。在巴西,我們從巴卡勞油田開始生產,這是第一個授予國際公司的鹽下油田作業權。我們繼續對投資組合進行高品質篩選,並保持成本和資本紀律。
All this has enabled us to deliver industry-leading return on average capital employed of 14.5%, and $18 billion in cash flow from operations after tax. We have delivered $9 billion in capital distribution to our shareholders, as we said at the start of the year.
這一切使我們能夠實現業界領先的平均資本回報率 14.5%,以及稅後經營現金流 180 億美元。正如我們在年初所說,我們已經向股東派發了 90 億美元的資本。
Last year, we received two stop-work orders for Empire Wind. In our view, both are unlawful. The first one was lifted by the new administration in May. The second stop work order came just before Christmas. This cited national security reasons, already a central part of an extensive approval process, where we have complied with all requirements. In January, we were granted a preliminary injunction allowing us to resume construction. There will be a continued legal process, and we remain in dialogue with US authorities to resolve any issues.
去年,我們收到了兩份針對帝國風能公司的停工令。我們認為,這兩種做法都是非法的。第一項禁令是新政府在五月解除的。第二道停工令是在聖誕節前夕下達的。理由是國家安全,而這已經是廣泛審批流程的核心部分,我們已遵守了所有要求。1月份,我們獲得了初步禁令,讓我們可以恢復施工。法律程序將繼續進行,我們將繼續與美國當局對話,以解決任何問題。
Despite the significant challenges caused by the stop work orders, the project execution is according to plan. The project is now over 60% complete. We have successfully installed all monopiles, the offshore substation, and almost 300 kilometers of subsea cables. The total CapEx for Empire Wind is now expected to be around $7.5 billion. Around $3 billion is remaining, and we, like other companies, remain exposed to uncertainty when it comes to possible future tariffs.
儘管停工令帶來了許多挑戰,但專案執行仍按計劃進行。該項目目前已完成60%以上。我們已成功安裝所有單樁基礎、海上變電站和近 300 公里的海底電纜。帝國風能項目的總資本支出預計約為75億美元。還有大約 30 億美元尚未到賬,而且與其他公司一樣,我們仍然面臨著未來可能徵收關稅的不確定性。
The project qualifies for tax credits, as decided by the US Congress. The cash effect of these is expected to be around $2.5 billion. So far, we have drawn $2.7 billion from project financing. We expect to draw the remaining $400 million this year. For 2027 and 2028 combined, we expect around $600 million in cash flow from operations. Combined with the ITC, this covers the remaining CapEx in the period.
根據美國國會的決定,該項目符合稅收抵免條件。預計這些項目將帶來約25億美元的現金收益。到目前為止,我們已經從專案融資中獲得了27億美元。我們預計今年將籌集到剩餘的4億美元。預計 2027 年及 2028 年合計,經營活動產生的現金流約 6 億美元。加上投資稅收抵免,這足以支付該期間剩餘的資本支出。
We have continued high-grading our portfolio. We announced the latest move earlier this week, divesting onshore assets in Argentina for a total consideration of $1.1 billion, unlocking capital for high value creation opportunities. The establishment of Adura was a major milestone last year. Our joint venture with Shell has created a leading operator on the UK Continental Shelf, fully self-funded, covering all Rosebank CapEx and well-positioned for growth. The JV company expect to distribute more than 50% of cash flow from operation to its shareholders, starting from the first half of 2026.
我們持續提升投資組合的品質。本週早些時候,我們宣布了最新舉措,以 11 億美元的總對價剝離阿根廷的在岸資產,從而釋放資金用於創造高價值的機會。Adura的成立是去年的一個重要里程碑。我們與殼牌的合資企業已在英國大陸架上打造了一家領先的運營商,完全自籌資金,涵蓋了 Rosebank 的所有資本支出,並為未來的成長做好了充分準備。合資公司預計將從 2026 年上半年開始,將超過 50% 的經營現金流分配給股東。
Based on Adura's plans, we expect total dividends of more than $1 billion for 2026 and 2027 combined, with growth from 2026 to 2027. This moves our UK portfolio from being cash negative, due to CapEx, to cash positive from dividends. These two transactions build on previous high grading of the portfolio, divesting mature assets, and invest more in long-term gas production onshore US. Through this, we have created a more future-proof international portfolio, focusing on prospective core areas, increasing free cash flow, strong production, lowering cost, and a portfolio with low carbon intensity.
根據 Adura 的計劃,我們預計 2026 年和 2027 年的總股息將超過 10 億美元,並且從 2026 年到 2027 年將持續成長。這使得我們英國投資組合的現金狀況從因資本支出而為負轉變為因股息而為正。這兩項交易建立在先前對投資組合進行高等級篩選的基礎上,剝離成熟資產,並加大對美國陸上長期天然氣生產的投資。透過這種方式,我們打造了一個更具前瞻性的國際投資組合,專注於有前景的核心領域,增加自由現金流,實現強勁的生產,降低成本,並建立了一個低碳排放強度的投資組合。
Now, onto, our strategic priorities for 2026 and 2027, and how they guide our capital allocation. The world is changing, but one thing remains firm: energy demand continues to grow. We are well positioned to contribute to energy security, affordability, and sustainability. So first, after more than 50 years of developing the Norwegian Continental Shelf, we are uniquely positioned for value creation here, and we continue to invest. The Norwegian Continental Shelf remains the backbone of the company.
接下來,我們將討論我們 2026 年和 2027 年的策略重點,以及這些重點如何指導我們的資本配置。世界在變化,但有一件事始終不變:能源需求持續成長。我們有能力為能源安全、可負擔性和永續性做出貢獻。首先,經過 50 多年的挪威大陸架開發,我們在這裡擁有獨特的價值創造優勢,我們將繼續投資。挪威大陸架仍然是該公司的支柱產業。
In 2026, the NCS will contribute to our production growth, and we work to maintain strong production well into the next decade. In the future we expect to make more but smaller discoveries. To ensure commerciality, we will work with partners, suppliers, authorities, and unions to change the way we operate on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. We will develop future discoveries faster, become more efficient, and increase return while improving safety further.
2026年,NCS將促進我們的生產成長,我們將努力在未來十年保持強勁的生產動能。未來我們預計會取得更多但規模較小的發現。為了確保商業可行性,我們將與合作夥伴、供應商、政府部門和工會合作,改變我們在挪威大陸架上的運作方式。我們將更快開發未來的研究成果,提高效率,增加回報,同時進一步提高安全性。
Next, we are set to deliver strong production and cash flow growth from our high-graded international oil and gas portfolio. We are progressing project execution and exploration across key geographies, adding new volumes and opportunities for longevity in the portfolio. On power, we combine our renewable portfolio with flexible power to build an integrated power business and strengthen our competitiveness. We are value-driven in all we do and disciplined in execution and capital allocation.
接下來,我們將從我們優質的國際油氣資產組合中實現強勁的產量和現金流成長。我們正在關鍵地區推動專案執行和勘探,為投資組合增加新的儲量和長期發展機會。在電力方面,我們將再生能源組合與靈活電力結合,建構一體化電力業務,增強我們的競爭力。我們所做的一切都以價值為導向,並在執行和資本配置方面嚴謹自律。
The main focus for 2026 and 2027, deliver safe operations and strong project execution of already sanctioned portfolio. All this, Norwegian oil and gas, international oil and gas, power, are tied together by our marketing and trading capabilities, creating value uplift across our business.
2026 年和 2027 年的主要重點是確保已批准專案組合的安全營運和強有力的專案執行。挪威石油天然氣、國際石油天然氣、電力等所有這一切,都透過我們的行銷和貿易能力聯繫在一起,從而為我們的業務創造了價值提升。
We are positioned to create value within low-carbon solutions, like carbon capture and storage, but markets are developing at a slower pace than anticipated. In addition to the execution of Northern Lights and Northern Endurance, we will continue to mature a few selected options and markets at low cost. We will be positioned to invest as market develops, customers are in place, and returns are robust.
我們有能力在低碳解決方案(如碳捕獲和儲存)領域創造價值,但市場發展速度比預期慢。除了執行「北極光」和「北方耐力」計畫外,我們將繼續以低成本開發一些精選選擇權和市場。我們將根據市場發展、客戶群和回報情況,做好投資準備。
We grow our production to even higher levels in 2026, from a record high production level in 2025. For the year, we expect a production growth of around 3%. We are ramping up new fields, which more than offset divestment and natural decline. We are replenishing our portfolio and have three-year average reserve replacement ratio of 100%.
我們在 2025 年創紀錄的高產量基礎上,於 2026 年將產量提高到更高的水平。我們預計今年的產量成長約為 3%。我們正在加強開發新油田,這足以彌補資產剝離和自然衰退造成的損失。我們正在補充投資組合,三年平均儲備金更換率為 100%。
On the NCS, we made 14 commercial discoveries last year, mainly close to existing infrastructure, adding to longevity, and we continue to explore. We have added attractive acreage in Norway, Brazil, and Angola. We expect to drill around 30 exploration wells in 2026. We expect to reduce our unit production cost to $6 per barrel. We continue to focus on delivering a carbon-efficient portfolio with a CO2 upstream intensity of 6.3 kg per barrel.
去年,我們在北海大陸架上發現了 14 個商業油氣藏,主要集中在現有基礎設施附近,這延長了油氣藏的壽命,我們將繼續勘探。我們在挪威、巴西和安哥拉新增了優質地塊。我們預計在 2026 年鑽探約 30 口勘探井。我們預計單位生產成本將降至每桶 6 美元。我們將持續致力於打造碳效率高的產品組合,其上游二氧化碳排放強度為每桶 6.3 公斤。
We take firm actions to strengthen our cash flow and further increase resilience facing higher market uncertainty. In 2026, we expect around $16 billion in cash flow from operations after tax. This reflects a lower price outlook and is also impacted by the tax lag effect in Norway. At flat price assumptions, it's growing to around $18 billion in 2027. We have strengthened our investment program for 2026 and 2027, reflecting market realities.
我們採取果斷措施,增強現金流,進一步提高應對市場不確定性增加的韌性。預計到 2026 年,稅後經營活動現金流將達到約 160 億美元。這反映出價格預期走低,同時也受到挪威稅收滯後效應的影響。假設價格保持不變,到 2027 年,這一數字將增長到約 180 億美元。我們根據市場實際情況,加強了 2026 年和 2027 年的投資計畫。
We have reduced our CapEx outlook for these two years with around $4 billion, mainly within power and low carbon. This also influence our net carbon intensity reduction for 2030 and 2035, no change to 5% to 15% and 15% to 30% respectively. We maintain a stable investments of around $10 billion annually to oil and gas. Our CapEx guiding for 2026 is around $13 billion. This includes Empire Wind, where we, in 2027, expect to monetize investment tax credits for around $2 billion. With this, we indicate CapEx of $9 billion for 2027.
我們已將未來兩年的資本支出預期下調了約 40 億美元,主要集中在電力和低碳領域。這也影響了我們 2030 年和 2035 年的淨碳排放強度減少目標,分別為 5% 至 15% 和 15% 至 30%。我們每年對石油和天然氣保持約100億美元的穩定投資。我們預計 2026 年的資本支出約為 130 億美元。這其中包括 Empire Wind,我們預計到 2027 年,將透過投資稅收抵免獲得約 20 億美元的收益。由此,我們預期 2027 年資本支出將達到 90 億美元。
In the current situation for the offshore wind industry, we are focusing on projects in execution and have a high bar for committing capital towards new offshore wind projects. This includes our ownership in Ãrsted. We will continue driving cost improvements, including the portfolio high grading we have done. We aim for 10% OpEx reduction in 2026, even while growing production.
就目前離岸風電產業的情況而言,我們專注於正在執行的項目,並且對投資新的離岸風電項目有著很高的標準。這包括我們對 Ärsted 的所有權。我們將繼續推動成本優化,包括我們已經進行的投資組合優質化改造。我們的目標是在2026年實現營運成本降低10%,同時擴大生產規模。
We continue with strategic portfolio optimization to strengthen future cash flow. Proceeds from the divestment of Peregrino and onshore Argentina assets, it's expected to contribute more than $1.1 billion this year. The action we take to strengthen our cash flow and robustness support sustainable, competitive capital distribution. This is important to me and a priority for the Board of Directors.
我們將繼續進行策略性投資組合優化,以增強未來的現金流。預計今年透過出售 Peregrino 和阿根廷陸上資產所得收益將超過 11 億美元。我們為增強現金流和穩健性所採取的行動,有助於實現可持續、有競爭力的資本分配。這對我來說很重要,也是董事會的優先事項。
The starting point is the cash dividend. We have set an ambition to grow the quarterly cash dividend with two cents per share on an annual basis. We continue to deliver on this. It represents an industry-leading increase of more than 5%. We also continue to use share buybacks to deliver competitive total distribution. For 2026, we announced a share buyback program of $1.5 billion, including the state share. The first tranche of $375 million starts tomorrow.
起點是現金股利。我們已設定目標,將季度現金股利逐年提高至每股兩美分。我們一直在努力實現這一目標。這代表著業界領先的5%以上的增幅。我們也將繼續透過股票回購來實現具有競爭力的總分紅。2026 年,我們宣布了一項 15 億美元的股票回購計劃,其中包括州政府持有的股份。首批3.75億美元明天開始發放。
As previously communicated, we see through timing effects like the tax lag in Norway and the phasing of Empire Wind, and lean on the balance sheet to deliver competitive capital distribution in 2026. In 2027, we have taken action to deliver stronger free cash flow. This is important to ensure that we can deliver competitive capital distribution in a long-term, sustainable manner.
正如之前所溝通的那樣,我們看到了時間因素的影響,例如挪威的稅收滯後和帝國風能項目的分階段實施,並依靠資產負債表在 2026 年實現具有競爭力的資本分配。2027年,我們已採取措施實現更強勁的自由現金流。這對於確保我們能夠以長期、可持續的方式提供具有競爭力的資本分配至關重要。
So with our guiding in the background, I will give the floor to Torgrim, to take you through further through the details, and then I look forward to questions together with Torgrim when he is finished. So Torgrim, please.
因此,在我們的指導下,我將把發言權交給托格里姆,讓他進一步向大家介紹細節,然後我期待著托格里姆講完後與大家一起回答問題。所以,托格林,拜託了。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So thank you, Anders, and good morning, and good afternoon, and, thank you for joining us here today. So, 2025 was a good year for Equinor. We delivered strong performance and record high production. But before we dive into the financial results I want to expand on how we will manage through a period of volatility.
所以,謝謝你,安德斯,早安,下午好,謝謝你今天來到這裡。所以,2025年對Equinor來說是好年。我們取得了優異的業績和創紀錄的高產量。但在深入探討財務表現之前,我想先詳細說明我們將如何應對這段波動時期。
So we are prepared for lower prices. With a strong balance sheet, lower cost and CapEx, and an attractive, project portfolio. Our financial framework sets the boundary conditions for our capital allocation, and how we manage our company.
所以我們已經做好了價格下跌的準備。擁有強勁的資產負債表、較低的成本和資本支出,以及極具吸引力的項目組合。我們的財務框架為我們的資本配置以及我們公司的管理方式設定了邊界條件。
So to start, our highest priority will be to deliver a robust and a growing cash dividend in line with our dividend policy, and this reflects growth in our long-term underlying earnings. Then, we will continue to invest in an attractive and high-graded investment portfolio, with low break evens and strong returns, in line with the following priorities. First, our unique position on the Norwegian Continental Shelf gives us competitive advantages, and this is why we will continue to prioritize developing this area and allocating almost 60% of our investments to an area we know better than anyone.
因此,首先,我們的首要任務是根據我們的股息政策,派發穩健且不斷增長的現金股息,這反映了我們長期潛在收益的成長。然後,我們將繼續投資於具有吸引力且高品質的投資組合,實現低損益平衡點和高回報,並遵循以下優先事項。首先,我們在挪威大陸架上的獨特地位賦予了我們競爭優勢,因此我們將繼續優先開發這一地區,並將近 60% 的投資分配給我們比任何人都更了解的地區。
In 2026, we have 16 projects in execution in Norway. Many of these are tie-ins to existing infrastructure, with low cost and very low break-evens. Then, we will allocate 30% of our capital to our international oil and gas business. This is mainly to sanction projects, and we expect to increase production to more than 900,000 barrels per day in 2030. Then, around 10% of our capital will be allocated to building an integrated power business, where the main focus is on delivering our offshore wind projects in execution safely, on time, and on cost.
2026年,我們在挪威有16個項目正在執行。其中許多項目都與現有基礎設施相連,成本低,損益平衡點也很低。然後,我們將把30%的資本分配給我們的國際石油和天然氣業務。這主要是為了批准項目,我們預計到 2030 年,每日產量將增加到 90 萬桶以上。然後,我們將把大約 10% 的資金用於建設綜合電力業務,其主要重點是安全、按時、按預算完成我們的離岸風電專案。
Outside these three areas, we expect limited investments over the next two years. As you know, we will prioritize having a strong balance sheet and the liquidity necessary at all times, and this is important to manage risk and to continue to deliver value. Over the next two years, we will see through the timing effect, such as the NCS tax lag and the tax credit on Empire Wind, impacting our cash flow from operations, and we will lean on the balance sheet. We will lean on the balance sheet in 2026 to cover CapEx and distribution.
除這三個領域外,我們預計未來兩年投資將十分有限。如您所知,我們將優先維持強勁的資產負債表和必要的流動性,這對於管理風險和持續創造價值至關重要。在接下來的兩年裡,我們將看到諸如 NCS 稅收滯後和 Empire Wind 的稅收抵免等時間因素對我們的營運現金流的影響,我們將依靠資產負債表。2026 年,我們將依靠資產負債表來支付資本支出和分銷費用。
Next year, in 2027, cash flow from operation is stronger, and we have lowered CapEx, significantly improving the free cash flow. So we will manage the balance sheet through this period and continue to deliver competitive capital distribution, including share buybacks.
明年,也就是 2027 年,經營活動產生的現金流將更加強勁,我們降低了資本支出,從而顯著改善了自由現金流。因此,我們將在此期間管理好資產負債表,並繼續提供有競爭力的資本分配,包括股票回購。
For more than a decade, we have consistently delivered an industry-leading return on capital employed, and if you ask me, that is a premium KPI that we hold very high in our company. And with this financial framework, we expect to deliver around 13% over the next two years, now using a lower price deck than what we have used earlier, so that is comparable to what we have, have said earlier.
十多年來,我們一直保持著領先業界的資本報酬率,在我看來,這是我們公司非常重視的重要關鍵績效指標。借助這個財務框架,我們預計在未來兩年內實現約 13% 的成長率,現在採用的價格方案比我們之前使用的方案要低,因此這與我們之前所說的相當。
We are used to managing volatility and deliver value through cycles. First, to manage cycles, we have to run with a strong balance sheet and a robust credit rating, and we have that. Having liquidity available is key. We have close to $20 billion for the time being.
我們習慣於應對市場波動,並在周期性波動中創造價值。首先,為了因應經濟週期,我們必須擁有強勁的資產負債表和穩健的信用評級,而我們恰恰具備這些條件。擁有充足的流動資金至關重要。我們目前手上有近200億美元。
Second, a low-cost base is important to ensure that we make money at low prices, and we continue to reduce our costs. We have a low unit production cost, and in 2026, we will further reduce it by around 10%, to $6 per barrel. We are the lowest cost supplier of piped gas to Europe, with our all-in cost of less than $2 per MBTU, and we are sure that we will create significant value in any price scenario in Europe.
其次,低成本基礎對於確保我們以低價賺錢至關重要,我們將持續降低成本。我們的單位生產成本很低,到 2026 年,我們將進一步降低約 10%,至每桶 6 美元。我們是歐洲管道天然氣成本最低的供應商,總成本低於每 MBTU 2 美元,我們確信,無論歐洲的價格如何,我們都能創造巨大的價值。
Through strong cost performance and portfolio high grading, we aim to reduce OpEx and SG&A by 10% in 2026. This corresponds to a flat underlying cost development, overcoming inflation while growing production. We are addressing cost in all parts of the organization, and I want to highlight that in 2025, we brought down OpEx and SG&A in renewables by 27%, mainly due to reductions in early phase costs.
透過強勁的成本效益和高品質的投資組合,我們的目標是到 2026 年將營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用降低 10%。這相當於基本成本保持平穩,在克服通貨膨脹的同時實現了生產成長。我們正在解決組織各部門的成本問題,我想強調的是,到 2025 年,我們已將再生能源的營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用降低了 27%,這主要歸功於早期階段成本的降低。
And then thirdly, it is key to have a competitive project portfolio that makes sense at lower prices. And we operate a majority of our projects, giving us the flexibility needed to adjust when we want to do that.
第三,擁有一個具有競爭力的專案組合,能夠在較低的價格下實現盈利,這一點至關重要。而且我們自主運作大部分項目,這讓我們擁有了在需要時進行調整所需的靈活性。
Through portfolio flexibility and high grading, we have reduced CapEx over the next two years by $4 billion, made divestments totalling more than $6 billion since 2024, and strengthened the quality of our portfolio. Our average breakeven is around $40, and we see an internal rate of return of 25%, in our portfolio at a $65 oil. We remain a leader on CO2 efficiency and an average payback of two and a half years. So I will call this a robust, low-risk, and high-value project portfolio that will create value also at low prices.
透過投資組合的靈活性和高品質的資產篩選,我們在未來兩年內減少了 40 億美元的資本支出,自 2024 年以來已撤資超過 60 億美元,並提高了投資組合的品質。我們的平均損益平衡點約為 40 美元,在油價為 65 美元時,我們的投資組合內部報酬率為 25%。我們在二氧化碳減排效率方面仍處於領先地位,平均投資回收期為兩年半。因此,我稱之為穩健、低風險、高價值的專案組合,它還能以低成本創造價值。
In periods of volatility, our NCS position and our international portfolio complement each other. In Norway, we are more robust to lower prices, while internationally, and particularly in the US, where we have strengthened our gas position, we have a large exposure to upside in prices.
在市場波動時期,我們的NCS部位和國際投資組合可以互相補充。在挪威,我們對價格下跌的承受能力更強;而在國際上,尤其是在我們加強了天然氣地位的美國,我們對價格上漲的風險敞口很大。
So Norway first. We have immediate deductions for CapEx against the special petroleum tax. And with full consolidation between fields and no asset ring-fencing or pre-tax CapEx of around $6 billion translates into an after-tax investments of less than $1.5 billion. And when prices change, 78% of the effect on the revenue is absorbed by reduced taxes. So this makes the NCS less exposed to lower prices than other basins. So what happens if prices change? With a $10 move, in oil prices, the cash flow is only impacted by $1.2 billion, and this is across the global portfolio and adjusted for tax lag.
所以先說挪威。我們可以從石油專項稅中立即扣除資本支出費用。由於各領域之間完全整合,且沒有資產隔離或稅前資本支出約 60 億美元,因此稅後投資不到 15 億美元。當價格改變時,78% 的收入影響會被稅收減少所抵銷。因此,與其他盆地相比,北大陸架受價格下跌的影響較小。如果價格改變會怎樣?油價每波動 10 美元,現金流只會受到 12 億美元的影響,這是全球投資組合的現金流,並且根據稅收滯後進行了調整。
For European gas, a $2 change, equals $800 million. What is particularly interesting is the US gas, where the production is now one third of our Norwegian gas position. But still, a $2 movement in gas price has a similar effect on cash flow after tax as in Norway. So let me elaborate more on the US gas, as that has become even more important to us.
對於歐洲天然氣而言,2 美元的變動相當於 8 億美元。尤其值得關注的是美國天然氣,其產量目前已達挪威天然氣產量的三分之一。但是,汽油價格每波動 2 美元,對稅後現金流的影響與挪威的情況類似。所以,讓我再詳細談談美國的天然氣問題,因為這對我們來說變得越來越重要了。
So in 2025, we delivered around $1 billion in cash flow from operations out of that asset. Production increased by 45% on back of well-timed acquisitions to around 300,000 barrels per day, capturing gas prices that were more than 50% higher than in 2024. We have a low unit production cost for our US gas, around $1 per barrel, and we are well positioned to benefit from robust power load growth and increased demand in the Northeast.
因此,到 2025 年,我們從該資產中獲得了約 10 億美元的營運現金流。由於適時的收購,產量增加了 45%,達到每天約 30 萬桶,而當時的天然氣價格比 2024 年高出 50% 以上。我們的美國天然氣單位生產成本很低,約為每桶 1 美元,而且我們已做好充分準備,從強勁的電力負載增長和東北地區不斷增長的需求中受益。
We are marketing our gas ourselves, and we are able to add value through trading, pipeline capacity, and access to premium markets such as New York City and Toronto. So in January this year, gas prices in the Northeast reached very high levels, driven by the winter storms, and we used our infrastructure and trading to capture quite a bit of value out of that volatility.
我們自行銷售天然氣,並透過貿易、管道輸送能力以及進入紐約市和多倫多等高端市場來增加價值。今年一月,受冬季風暴的影響,東北地區的汽油價格達到了非常高的水平,我們利用我們的基礎設施和交易,從這種波動中獲得了相當大的價值。
Okay, so now to our fourth quarter and full year results. This slide sums up the key numbers you heard from Anders. Safety is our first priority. We see strong safety results, but we need to continue improving with force. Return on average capital employed in 2025 was 14.5%. Cash flow from operations after tax came in at $18 billion, and earnings per share were strong at $0.81.
好的,現在來看我們第四季和全年業績。這張投影片總結了你從安德斯那裡聽到的關鍵數據。安全是我們的首要任務。我們看到了良好的安全成效,但我們需要繼續加強力度,以求進步。2025 年平均資本報酬率為 14.5%。稅後營業活動現金流為 180 億美元,每股收益強勁,為 0.81 美元。
For the year, we produced 2,137,000 barrels per day. This is record high and up 3.4% from last year, driven by ramp up on Johan Castberg and Halten East on the NCS, US onshore gas, and new wells coming on stream. In the quarter, production was up 6%, despite some operational issues in Norway and in Brazil. On the NCS, Johan Sverdrup had another strong year. For power, we produced 5.65 terawatt-hours, and renewables power generation was up by 25%. So then to our financials.
在該年度,我們每天生產 2,137,000 桶。這是歷史最高水平,比去年增長了 3.4%,主要得益於加拿大北大陸架 Johan Castberg 和 Halten East 油田的增產、美國陸上天然氣以及新油井的投產。儘管挪威和巴西出現了一些營運問題,但本季產量仍增加了 6%。在NCS排名中,Johan Sverdrup又取得了強勁的一年。電力方面,我們生產了 5.65 太瓦時,再生能源發電量增加了 25%。接下來是財務數據。
Adjusted operating income from E&P Norway totalled $5 billion, driven by increased production at lower prices. Depreciation was up compared to last year due to new fields on stream. Our E&P international results were impacted by portfolio changes and an under-lift situation in the quarter. In the US, results were driven by significantly higher gas production, capturing higher prices, and in our MMP segment, results were driven by gas trading and optimization and a favourable price review result in January. So the result of this price review explains the difference from the MMP guidance. So this is a one-off, however, important enough, and the cash flow impact will be somewhat higher than the accounting effect, and it will come in 2026.
受產量增加和油價走低的推動,挪威油氣勘探開發業務的調整後營業收入總計達 50 億美元。由於新油田投入生產,折舊金額較去年增加。本季度,我們的國際勘探與生產業績受到投資組合變化和產能不足的影響。在美國,業績成長主要得益於天然氣產量大幅提高,從而獲得了更高的價格;而在我們的MMP業務板塊,業績成長則主要得益於天然氣交易和優化,以及1月份有利的價格審查結果。因此,此次價格審查的結果解釋了與 MMP 指導價的差異。所以這是一次性的,但是,它非常重要,現金流的影響將比會計影響略高,而且它將在 2026 年發生。
On a group level, we had net impairments of $626 million and losses on sale of assets of $282 million. These do not impact adjusted numbers. A significant part of this relates to the Peregrino and the Adura transactions, and they are mainly driven by accounting treatment of these transactions, more of a technical nature.
集團層面,我們淨減損損失為 6.26 億美元,出售資產損失為 2.82 億美元。這些不會影響調整後的數據。其中很大一部分與 Peregrino 和 Adura 的交易有關,主要原因是這些交易的會計處理,更多的是技術性問題。
Adjusted OpEx and SG&A was up 7% compared to the same quarter last year, and up 9% for the year. These were driven by transportation cost, insurance claims, and currency. For the year, underlying OpEx and SG&A was up 1%, and if you adjust for currency headwinds, it was actually slightly down.
經過調整後的營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用比去年同期增長了 7%,全年增長了 9%。這些因素主要受運輸成本、保險理賠和匯率波動的影響。今年以來,基本營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用增加了 1%,如果考慮到匯率不利因素,實際上略有下降。
For the year, our cash flow from operations came in at $18 billion after tax, in line with our guidance when we adjust for changes in prices. Organic CapEx for the year was $13.1 billion, also in line with what we said. Our net debt to capital employed ended at 17.8%. This increase from last quarter is mainly driven by NCS tax payments and Ãrsted rights issue participation and somewhat increasing working capital.
本年度,我們稅後經營活動產生的現金流量為 180 億美元,與我們對價格變動的預期相符。本年度有機資本支出為 131 億美元,也與我們先前所說的相符。我們的淨債務與已動用資本比率最終為 17.8%。與上一季相比,這一增長主要得益於 NCS 稅款支付、參與 Ärsted 配股以及營運資金的略微增加。
So let me conclude with our guidance. For 2026, we expect $13 billion in organic CapEx and a 3% growth in oil and gas production. We have increased our quarterly cash dividend by more than 5%, now at $0.39 per share. And announce a share buyback of up to $1.5 billion for the year, starting with the first tranche tomorrow.
最後,讓我以我們的指導方針作為總結。預計到 2026 年,有機資本支出將達到 130 億美元,石油和天然氣產量將增加 3%。我們將季度現金股利提高了 5% 以上,目前為每股 0.39 美元。並宣布今年將進行高達 15 億美元的股票回購計劃,第一批回購將於明天開始。
Thank you very much for the attention, and now I will leave the word back to you, BÃ¥rd, for the Q&A session. Thanks.
非常感謝大家的關注,現在我把問答環節交給你,Bård。謝謝。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
(Operator Instructions) Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, SpareBank 1 Markets.
(操作員指示)Teodor Sveen-Nilsen,SpareBank 1 Markets。
Teodor Sveen Nilsen - Analyst
Teodor Sveen Nilsen - Analyst
Thank you. Congrats on strong results. So sort of two questions. First on CapEx. You obviously reduced guidance for 2027. Just wonder how we should interpret the runup into 2028. Should we also assume that the 2028 CapEx will be well below the $13 billion you previously announced, or is that too early to say anything about?
謝謝。祝賀取得優異成績。所以,這其實算是兩個問題。首先是資本支出。你們顯然下調了2027年的業績預期。想知道我們該如何解讀2028年之前的這段時間。我們是否也應該假設 2028 年的資本支出將遠低於您先前宣布的 130 億美元,還是現在下任何結論都為時過早?
And second question, that also -- that is on MMP. Could you just explain what's behind the price review that boosted the results? Thanks.
第二個問題,也是關於 MMP 的。能否解釋一下是什麼價格調整提升了業績?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much. So you can think about the price review, Torgrim, while I talk about the CapEx. Yeah, you're right, we have reduced the CapEx. We have, when we are looking in the CapEx profile over the last years, we have consistency. We have consistency investing into Norwegian oil and gas, and in international oil and gas. And last year, and this year, we are reducing the CapEx outlook for our renewables and low-carbon solutions, and this is due to that two, three years ago, we had a different market view than we have today.
非常感謝。所以你可以考慮價格評估,Torgrim,而我來談談資本支出。是的,你說得對,我們減少了資本支出。從過去幾年的資本支出情況來看,我們發現其具有穩定性。我們一直持續投資於挪威石油天然氣以及國際石油天然氣。去年和今年,我們降低了對再生能源和低碳解決方案的資本支出預期,這是因為兩三年前,我們對市場的看法與今天不同。
We don't expect that this market will change dramatically over the next years. We intend to continue focusing, investing consistently into our attractive oil and gas portfolio that Torgrim demonstrated. And be market driven and invest in low-carbon solution and power when the time is right, the profitability is right, and the market comes.
我們預計未來幾年這個市場不會發生劇烈變化。我們將持續專注並持續投資於Torgrim所展現出的極具吸引力的油氣投資組合。並且要以市場為導向,在時機成熟、獲利能力合適、市場需求出現時,投資低碳解決方案和能源。
So I cannot give you the guidance for 2028 already, but with these consistency in investments in oil and gas and this change we have done in the CapEx for renewables and low-carbon solutions, and the market will probably not change very much over the next years. I think you will see somewhat consistency in our CapEx guidance going forward, and we will come back to more details about this in June.
因此,我現在還無法給出 2028 年的指導意見,但是鑑於我們在石油和天然氣領域的投資保持穩定,以及我們在可再生能源和低碳解決方案的資本支出方面所做的改變,未來幾年市場可能不會發生太大變化。我認為您會看到我們未來的資本支出預期將保持一定的一致性,我們將在六月公佈更多細節。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Teodor. On the price review, that is a normal mechanism in many of the gas contracts, where sort of if the price in the contract dislocates from what the market should have been, and the price should have been, we have a mechanism to renegotiate or open up that.
謝謝你,特奧多爾。關於價格審查,這是許多天然氣合約中的正常機制,如果合約中的價格與市場應有的價格和實際價格不符,我們就有機制重新談判或調整價格。
We often disagree with customers in processes like this, and often we take such things into arbitration, as we have done in this case. So that has gone on for a while, and we won in that arbitration.
在這樣的過程中,我們經常與客戶意見不一致,而且我們經常將此類事情提交仲裁,就像我們在這個案例中所做的那樣。這件事持續了一段時間,最後我們在仲裁中勝訴。
Over the year, we have accrued revenue related to that because we considered that we had a strong case. We had an even better outcome than what we accrued. This will be a one-off payment during the year, and from now on, there is a new mechanism in place on that contract.
過去一年,我們因此獲得了相關收入,因為我們認為我們有充分的理由。我們所取得的成果甚至比我們預期的還要好。這將是今年的一次性付款,從現在開始,該合約將採用新的機制。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Sorry, Teodor, I need to stick to the two questions because we want to cover as many as possible. John Olaisen, ABG Sundal Collier.
抱歉,特奧多爾,我只能問這兩個問題,因為我們想盡可能涵蓋相關內容。約翰·奧萊森,ABG Sundal Collier。
John Olaisen - Analyst
John Olaisen - Analyst
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. First question is regarding Johan Sverdrup --
是的,謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於約翰·斯維爾德魯普的。--
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
John, please use the microphone so people can hear you online.
約翰,請使用麥克風,這樣大家才能在網路上聽到你說話。
John Olaisen - Analyst
John Olaisen - Analyst
Sorry. I guess I don't need --
對不起。我想我不需要--
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
You need to push a button. Push the button, please.
你需要按下一個按鈕。請按下按鈕。
John Olaisen - Analyst
John Olaisen - Analyst
Yeah. Okay. Yeah, sorry. It's John Olaisen from ABG. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is regarding Johan Sverdrup. Anders, you were quoted in the media today saying that you expect it to decline by more than 10% this year. I would -- I want you to elaborate a little bit more on that. How much more, and do we expect the same for the next few years? So that's only my first question on Johan Sverdrup production profile.
是的。好的。抱歉。我是來自 ABG 的 John Olaisen。謝謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於約翰·斯維爾德魯普的。安德斯,你今天在媒體上說,你預計今年它會下降超過 10%。我想——我希望你能再詳細解釋一下。還有多少?未來幾年情況是否也如此?這只是我關於 Johan Sverdrup 生產概況的第一個問題。
The second question is regarding M&A. You've sold a lot of assets internationally, so I wonder, do you have, still have assets on the sales list internationally? And also, secondly, it's, it's a long time since you bought assets internationally. Do you have -- are you looking at potential acquisitions internationally? Those are the two questions, Johan Sverdrup and M&A.
第二個問題與併購有關。您在國際上出售了很多資產,所以我想知道,您在國際上是否還有待售資產?其次,你已經很久沒有進行國際資產收購了。你們有沒有--或者說,你們是否正在考慮國際上的潛在收購?這就是兩個問題,約翰·斯維爾德魯普和併購。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. First of all, when it comes to Sverdrup, I think we have demonstrated over many, many years how we've been able to keep up the production, even increase it, due to the fantastic work that is done by the people working with Johan Sverdrup. Then, a field like this, like, is like all other fields. Eventually, it will come into decline, and we see that now. So we see a decline in Johan Sverdrup for 2026, which is more than 10%, but well below 20%, and that is what we put into our numbers. Still, we will have a growth in Equinor of 3% for 2026, and actually also a growth both on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and internationally.
謝謝。首先,就 Sverdrup 而言,我認為多年來我們已經證明了,我們能夠保持產量,甚至提高產量,這要歸功於與 Johan Sverdrup 一起工作的人們所做的出色工作。那麼,像這樣的字段,就和其他所有字段一樣了。它最終會走向衰落,而我們現在已經看到了這一點。因此,我們看到 2026 年 Johan Sverdrup 的產量將下降 10% 以上,但遠低於 20%,這就是我們將其納入我們的數字中。儘管如此,我們預計 Equinor 在 2026 年將成長 3%,而且挪威大陸架和國際業務也將成長。
And of course, based on all the good work, drilling new wells, placing the wells better, retrofitting the wells, high production efficiency, have a high water cut and flow through the separators. The team is working to make sure that this decline is as low as possible. But above 10, well below 20, is what we see and kind of planning for in 2026. Well, we don't have a specific list of M&A sales candidates and targets that we disclose, but I think what you have seen, what we have done in the past, we have been active both in divestment, where we think the timing is right to create value, and where we see that future investment can be used better elsewhere.
當然,基於所有這些良好的工作,鑽新井、更好地佈置井位、改造井、提高生產效率、提高含水率和通過分離器的流量。團隊正在努力確保這種下降幅度盡可能小。但我們認為,2026 年的數值應該高於 10,遠低於 20,這也是我們正在規劃的目標。我們沒有具體的併購出售候選對象和目標名單需要披露,但我認為你們已經看到的,以及我們過去的做法,我們一直積極進行資產剝離,在我們認為時機成熟可以創造價值的地方,以及在我們認為未來的投資可以更好地用於其他地方的地方。
Then we have monetized those assets, and when we have seen opportunistic opportunities to invest, we have done it, like twice, in the US gas in the Marcellus. You can expect us to be active going forward. And we have had a strategy of optimizing the international business, and we have optimized it now and set it clear for growth, and now is the focus to deliver on that growth and finding more attractive exploration opportunities within those selected areas, and at the same time, be open for value accretive opportunities in the market.
然後,我們將這些資產貨幣化,當我們看到投資機會時,我們就進行了投資,例如在美國馬塞勒斯頁岩氣田進行了兩次投資。接下來,我們將繼續保持積極主動的態度。我們一直致力於優化國際業務,現在我們已經優化了該業務,並明確了成長目標。現在的重點是實現成長,並在選定的領域內尋找更具吸引力的勘探機會,同時對市場上的價值增值機會保持開放態度。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Henri Patricot, UBS.
亨利‧帕特里科特,瑞銀集團。
Henri Patricot - Analyst
Henri Patricot - Analyst
Yes, thank you, and thank you for the presentation. Two questions from me. The first one on the cash flow guidance for 2026, 2027. You do show this meaningful improvement in 2027 to $18 billion. Could you give us a bit more of a breakdown behind this improvement? I think you mentioned Empire Wind starting up, some tax lag effect. What else is contributing to this sharp increase?
是的,謝謝,也謝謝您的演講。我有兩個問題。第一份是關於 2026 年和 2027 年現金流指引。你們確實預測到 2027 年將實現顯著成長,達到 180 億美元。能否更詳細地解釋一下這項改進背後的原因?我想你提到過帝國之風的啟動,以及一些稅收滯後效應。還有哪些因素導致了這種急劇增長?
And then secondly, I was wondering, there's uncertainty still around Empire Wind 1. What would be the impact to the financial framework you presented today if the project does not complete, or any implications for the broader CapEx and shareholder returns? Thank you.
其次,我想知道,《帝國之風1》目前仍存在一些不確定性。如果該專案未能完成,對您今天提出的財務框架會有什麼影響?或者對更廣泛的資本支出和股東回報會有什麼影響?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
If you told him, start with Empire Wind, then I can take on the CapEx reduction for 2027 afterwards.
如果你告訴他,先從帝國之風計畫開始,之後我就可以著手處理 2027 年的資本支出削減問題了。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay, thanks. So, thanks, Henry. On Empire Wind, clearly, we are steered by sort of forward-looking economics and forward-looking cash flows when we make up our minds. So from now on, the remainder of investments will be covered by the ITC and cash flow from operations over the next two years, in a way. So the threshold for not moving forward with it is extremely high, in a way. I mean, the total economics of that project life cycle is something else, but clearly the decision that we have to make is actually how it looks going forward.
好的,謝謝。謝謝你,亨利。很顯然,在帝國風能公司,我們在做決定時會受到前瞻性經濟和前瞻性現金流的指導。因此,從現在開始,剩餘的投資將在未來兩年內由投資稅收抵免和經營活動產生的現金流來支付。因此,從某種意義上說,不推進此事的門檻非常高。我的意思是,該專案生命週期的整體經濟效益是另一回事,但很顯然,我們必須做出的決定實際上是它未來的發展方向。
And going forward, it's actually pretty solid. So the threshold for stopping it is very high. Our job is to deliver this on time and schedule, and I must say, I am extremely proud of what that project organization has been able to do through all of this volatility this year, to keep it steady, on the track. So, we are on track to deliver, and, and we have, no other plans than that.
展望未來,它實際上相當穩健。因此,阻止它的門檻非常高。我們的工作是按時按計劃完成這項工作,我必須說,我為該專案組織在今年所有這些動盪時期所取得的成就感到無比自豪,他們保持了專案的穩定和進展。所以,我們正按計劃推進,而且,除了這個計劃之外,我們沒有其他安排。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. And then, the cash flow from operations that is increasing from $16 billion to $18 billion towards '27, this is based on flat price assumption, $65 on the oil price, and $9 and $3.5 for Europe and US respectively.
是的。此外,到 2027 年,經營活動產生的現金流將從 160 億美元增加到 180 億美元,這是基於油價持平的假設,即石油價格為每桶 65 美元,歐洲和美國的價格分別為每桶 9 美元和 3.5 美元。
And the answer here is that this is the tax lag. We are, this year, paying a higher tax based on higher prices, last year, on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. And it's also a 3% production increase in 2026, that will also contribute to a higher cash flow.
答案就在於稅收滯後。今年,由於挪威大陸棚去年的價格較高,我們繳的稅也較高。此外,預計到 2026 年產量將成長 3%,這也將有助於提高現金流。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.
Biraj Borkhataria,RBC。
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just the first one was just a follow-up on Johan Sverdrup. You mentioned the decline for 2026. What is in your base case for 2027 and beyond? Because obviously it's quite a big part of your portfolio. It will be good to get some clarity there on the decline rates.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。第一部只是約翰·斯維爾德魯普的後續報導。你提到了2026年的下滑趨勢。您對2027年及以後的基本預期是什麼?因為很顯然,這在你的投資組合中佔了相當大的比例。最好能弄清楚具體的下降率是多少。
And then the second question is just on the Empire Wind budget, which has obviously gone up a little bit. How should we think about how much contingency you have in that new $7.5 billion budget? Thank you.
第二個問題是關於帝國之風的預算,顯然預算略有增加。我們該如何看待你們在新制定的75億美元預算中預留了多少緊急資金?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, when it comes to, we are guiding now on Johan Sverdrup for 2026, and to say what it will be in 2027 is too early. As I said, we have a fantastic team there that will do everything they can to reduce this decline. We will drill new wells.
至於2026年,我們目前對約翰·斯維爾德魯普的預測還為時過早,至於2027年會怎樣,現在說還為時過早。正如我所說,我們那裡有一支非常棒的團隊,他們會盡一切努力減少這種下滑趨勢。我們將鑽探新井。
And I also remind you that in end of 2027, we will have Johan Sverdrup phase three coming on stream as well. We have ramp up of other fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, meaning that, despite this reduction in 2026, decline in Johan Sverdrup, we will still have a production growth. And then we will see now how Johan Sverdrup behave during the first part of the decline and how we are mitigated, and then we will come back to it. So it's too early to say.
我還要提醒大家,到 2027 年底,約翰·斯維爾德魯普核電廠三期工程也將投入營運。我們在挪威大陸架上的其他油田產量有所增加,這意味著,儘管 Johan Sverdrup 油田在 2026 年產量有所下降,但我們仍將實現產量成長。接下來,我們將看看約翰·斯維爾德魯普在衰退初期階段的表現,以及我們如何應對,然後再回到這個問題上來。所以現在下結論還太早。
When the increases on the Empire Wind, it's very much related to two elements. It's tariffs that has been imposed to the project and is also an effect of the first stop work order that we had. The second stop work order, we were able to execute part of the project, most of the project, in the beginning of the stop work order. And the most important parts of the progress we were able to do after the preliminary injunction.
帝國之風增強時,與兩個元素密切相關。這是對該項目徵收的關稅,也是我們第一次收到停工令的後果。在第二次停工令下達後,我們能夠在停工令開始階段完成部分項目,甚至大部分項目。以及我們在初步禁令之後所取得的最重要的進展。
So very, very little, very little effect of the project. So the execution part of it, it's going well in terms the use of CapEx in this project, but there is a remaining uncertainty on tariffs. You might remember a couple of weeks ago, a 10% tariff to Greenland, that was removed a little bit a few days later, and that is some of the uncertainty that we are facing with this project.
所以這個項目幾乎沒有任何效果。因此,就該專案的資本支出使用而言,執行部分進展順利,但關稅方面仍存在不確定性。你可能還記得幾週前,對格陵蘭島徵收了 10% 的關稅,幾天後關稅有所降低,這就是我們在這個項目中面臨的一些不確定性。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Alastair Syme, Citi.
花旗集團的阿拉斯泰爾·西姆。
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Just one question really to Anders. I just wanted to reflect on the journey that Equinor has been on in recent years with respect to the transition. Because you are signaling today a further scaling back and ambitions with a lower CapEx.
我只想問安德斯一個問題。我只是想回顧一下Equinor近年來在轉型過程中所經歷的歷程。因為你今天發出訊號,要進一步縮減規模,降低資本支出目標。
And look, I know you're not alone in doing this in the industry, but if I go back a few years ago, you had outlined a competitive position where Equinor could be differentiated in the transition space. So I guess my question is what are your reflections on this journey, and what do you think has happened that is different to what you anticipated several years ago?
我知道在業界這樣做的人不只你一個,但如果我回顧幾年前,你已經概述了Equinor在過渡領域如何脫穎而出的競爭地位。所以我想問的是,您對這段旅程有何感想?您認為發生了哪些與您幾年前的預期不同的事?
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. That's a really, it's a really good question. And I think kind of this is where, what we were saying today, that we are signaling a consistency. We have, over the last five years, been extremely consistent in our communication around oil and gas, and how we will develop the oil and gas portfolio, optimize it, and we have delivered on that. And but we also had a different market view on offshore wind and transportation and storage of CO2 in particular. This is where we had experience. We saw a market growing for transportation and storage of CO2 going faster than we actually have seen.
謝謝。這真是一個非常好的問題。我認為,我們今天所說的,正是要表明一種一致性。在過去的五年裡,我們在石油和天然氣領域的溝通一直非常一致,包括我們將如何開發和優化石油和天然氣資產組合,而我們也實現了這一目標。但是,我們對離岸風電以及二氧化碳的運輸和儲存等市場問題也有不同的看法。我們在這方面有過經驗。我們看到二氧化碳運輸和儲存市場的成長速度比我們實際看到的還要快。
For instance, also for hydrogen, a couple of years ago, we actually had head of terms contracts with customers. Those have been cancelled, meaning that we have not been able to progress a lot of these projects within that area. But keeping in mind, we were able to do been able to do Northern Lights, Northern Lights phase two, and Northern Endurance. So we see now that the licensing for or support regimes and applications for capturing CO2 goes slower, despite that the framework and the laws are much more in favour of CO2 now than it was before.
例如,幾年前,在氫能領域,我們實際上與客戶簽訂了條款優先合約。這些項目都被取消了,這意味著我們無法推進該領域的許多項目。但請記住,我們能夠完成「北極光」、「北極光第二階段」和「北極耐力」計畫。因此,我們現在看到,儘管現在的框架和法律比以前更有利於二氧化碳捕集,但二氧化碳捕集的許可或支持制度和申請的審批速度卻放慢了。
So to summarize very quickly, we had a different market view some years ago, based on real discussions with governments and potential customers than we have today. Three, four years ago, customers called us to buy natural gas and was also asking for potential hydrogen and transportation and storage of CO2. Today, they continue to buy natural gas, but they have postponed their own targets for reducing emissions beyond 2030.
簡而言之,幾年前,我們基於與政府和潛在客戶的實際討論,對市場的看法與今天有所不同。三、四年前,客戶打電話給我們購買天然氣,同時也詢問氫氣以及二氧化碳的運輸和儲存的可能性。如今,他們仍在繼續購買天然氣,但他們已經推遲了2030年以後的減排目標。
Some years ago, when everyone had a 2030 target, much more focus from customers to have this market up and running very fast. Now, with different targets beyond 2030, to collect enough CO2 to have long-term contracts, we have found it very difficult. That's why we are allocating no more CapEx into that area due to the market conditions. So that is what had happened. And we have focused on business to business with hard-to-abate industry that has postponed the targets.
幾年前,當大家都以 2030 年為目標時,客戶更加關注如何讓這個市場快速發展。現在,隨著 2030 年以後目標的改變,為了收集足夠的二氧化碳以簽訂長期合同,我們發現這非常困難。正因如此,鑑於目前的市場狀況,我們不再向該領域追加資本支出。事情就是這樣。我們重點關注了難以控制的行業,這些行業已經推遲了減排目標的實現。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Irene Himona, Bernstein.
艾琳希莫娜,伯恩斯坦。
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Thank you very much. Good morning. My first question is, one of clarification, really. You, you referred to your objective to build an integrated power portfolio. Typically, when your peers refer to integrated power, they mean essentially adding gas-fired, power generation to renewables. So I wanted to ask, what does integrated power mean for you, and how does Ãrsted fit in that?
非常感謝。早安.我的第一個問題,其實是一個需要澄清的問題。您曾提過建構綜合電力組合的目標。通常情況下,當同行提到綜合電力時,他們指的是在再生能源的基礎上增加燃氣發電。所以我想問一下,對您來說,整合電源意味著什麼,而 Örsted 又如何融入其中?
My second question, just going back to the share buyback. Previously, in the past, you had guided to a long-term, sustainable through the cycle share buyback of around about $2 billion. Today, you lowered that to $1.5 billion. I'm just trying to understand what has changed between then and now, essentially. Thank you.
我的第二個問題,還是關於股票回購的事情。在此之前,您曾引導公司透過週期性股票回購,實現了約 20 億美元的長期永續發展。今天,你們將這個數字降到15億美元。我只是想了解從那時到現在發生了哪些變化。謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
You can start with that, Torgrim, and I'll do the integrated power.
托格里姆,你可以先從那部分開始,我來負責整合電源。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay. Thanks. Thanks, Irene. So, well, we have said at the earlier years, $1.2 billion as sort of the, the sustainable level in a way. So $1.5 billion is actually above that. We retired the $1.2 billion a bit back.
好的。謝謝。謝謝你,艾琳。所以,嗯,我們在早年就說過,12億美元在某種程度上是可持續的水平。所以,15億美元其實高於這個數字。我們之前已經拿回了12億美元。
To give a little bit more context, Irene, it's the concept of having a stable share buyback through a cycle comes a little bit theoretical. We just coming out of a super cycle, and we have returned $54 billion over the last three years based on that, in a way. So where we are now, we are actually the first year where the balance sheet is normalized, and we aim to manage within our means.
艾琳,為了提供更多背景信息,透過週期性波動進行穩定的股票回購的概念有點理論化。我們只是走出一個超級週期,從某種意義上說,在過去三年裡,基於這個週期,我們已經獲得了 540 億美元的回報。所以,我們現在正處於資產負債表正常化的第一年,我們的目標是量入為出。
So the number that we put forward today is $1.5 billion. We are leaning on the balance sheet this year, but you have seen the in 2027. So we want to sort of give you an outlook for over a couple of years here. So the way you should think about share buyback is that it is a natural part of the capital distribution. It is something that is regular and is on top of the cash dividend. And the cash dividend, you should see, consider as bankable. Share buyback clearly will be more dependent on macro environment as we move forward.
所以我們今天提出的數字是15億美元。今年我們將依靠資產負債表,但你們已經看到了 2027 年的情況。所以,我們想在這裡給大家展望一下未來兩年的發展前景。所以你應該把股票回購看成是資本分配的自然組成部分。這是定期發放的,而且是在現金股息之外的額外收入。你應該把現金股利看作是可靠的。隨著情勢發展,股票回購顯然將更加依賴宏觀環境。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
When it comes to integrated power, for us, that means both intermittent power, like offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, in addition to flexible power, batteries, and CCGTs. We do have exposure in all of this. We have gas to power in UK. We have battery in Poland, and onshore and offshore and solar. This was divided in different business area. Now everything is integrated into one business area, Power, and then we have Danske Commodities that are able to integrate this totality and add additional value to this.
就綜合電力而言,對我們來說,這意味著既包括離岸風電、陸上風電、太陽能等間歇性電力,也包括靈活電力、電池和燃氣聯合循環發電。我們在所有這些方面都有所涉獵。英國有天然氣發電。我們在波蘭擁有電池儲能設施,包括陸上、海上和太陽能發電設施。這被劃分為不同的業務領域。現在所有業務都整合到一個業務領域——電力,然後我們還有丹麥商品公司能夠整合這一整體並為其增添額外價值。
Having said that, the priority with an integrated power over the next year is to deliver on the already sanctioned projects. From that, we are able to, potentially if we have the right investment opportunity, to expand further on the integrated power. But of course, with our gas position, in Europe and US, we are, of course, well-positioned also, for gas to power if we see the right opportunities in the future.
話雖如此,未來一年內,聯合政府的首要任務是落實已經批准的項目。由此,如果我們有合適的投資機會,我們或許能夠進一步擴大綜合電力業務。當然,憑藉我們在歐洲和美國的天然氣地位,如果我們在未來看到合適的機遇,當然也能夠很好地利用天然氣發電。
Ãrsted, and working together with Ãrsted, and collaboration with Orsted, as we have said fits into this type of integrated power. We can be exposed in offshore wind, in different ways, and working together with Ãrsted, collaborating with Ãrsted, yeah, will fit into an integrated power, in different types of potential structures.
正如我們所說,與 Örsted 合作,以及與 Örsted 的合作,都符合這種一體化的電力模式。我們可以透過不同的方式涉足離岸風電領域,與 Örsted 合作,是的,這將融入到不同類型的潛在結構中的一體化電力體系中。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Paul Redman, BNP Paribas.
保羅‧雷德曼,法國巴黎銀行。
Paul Redman - Analyst
Paul Redman - Analyst
Great. Thank you very much for your time today, guys. My first question is just, how do you think about growth at Equinor? The reason I ask that question is, at the Capital Markets Day last year, you highlighted a flat to declining production 2026 plus, and I'm assuming that included some Vaca Muerta production as well. You're heavily cutting the renewable portfolio spend. So just how do we think about growth going forward from here?
偉大的。非常感謝各位今天抽出時間。我的第一個問題是,您如何看待Equinor的成長?我之所以問這個問題,是因為在去年的資本市場日上,您強調了 2026 年及以後產量將持平或下降,我假設其中也包括一些 Vaca Muerta 的產量。你們正在大幅削減再生能源投資組合的支出。那麼,我們接下來該如何看待未來的成長呢?
And then secondly, when I look at MMP, I guess the long term -- well, the annual guidance was $1.6 billion, $400 million a quarter. You've generated about $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion for the quarter, if I take out the long-term gas contract review from this quarter. Is there any reason the guidance isn't updated, and how should we think about MMP going forward? Thank you.
其次,當我審視 MMP 時,我想長期來看——嗯,年度預期是 16 億美元,每季 4 億美元。如果從本季扣除長期天然氣合約審查的收入,你們本季大約創造了 12.5 億美元至 13 億美元的收入。指南為何沒有更新?我們該如何看待MMP的未來發展?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
I'll start with the growth, and we divide it, so you can take the MMP. Let's start with the renewables. We have said that we don't want to invest more than what we have already sanctioned, but that will create the growth. We had 45.5% growth quarter to quarter on the renewables business this year, 25% in 2025. So still growth in integrated power over the next year. And then, as I said, we will have to think how we can create a further profitable and disciplined growth into that area.
我先從成長開始,然後我們把它分成幾個部分,這樣你就可以計算 MMP 了。我們先從再生能源說起。我們說過,我們不想投資超過我們已經批准的金額,但這將會創造成長。今年我們的再生能源業務較上季成長了 45.5%,預計到 2025 年將成長 25%。因此,未來一年綜合電力市場仍將維持成長。然後,正如我所說,我們將不得不思考如何在該領域實現進一步的獲利和穩健成長。
When it comes to the international business, we have repositioned that portfolio, and you can expect from today's level towards 2030, growing this production towards 900 million barrels a day. So it's clearly a growth in there, growth in production, growth in free cashflow.
在國際業務方面,我們已經重新調整了投資組合,預計到 2030 年,產量將從目前的水平增長到每天 9 億桶。所以很明顯,這方面有所成長,生產成長,自由現金流也成長了。
On the Norwegian Continental Shelf, we will continue to explore. It will be difficult to create further growth in on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, but we have received attractive acreage. We will drill 26 exploration wells on the Norwegian Continental Shelf next year.
我們將繼續在挪威大陸棚進行勘探。在挪威大陸架上實現進一步成長將十分困難,但我們已獲得了頗具吸引力的區塊面積。明年我們將在挪威大陸棚鑽探26口探勘井。
We're working on reducing the time from exploration to production from five to seven years to two to three years, enabling more efficiency to be able to keep the production at highest possible level on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, and growing free cash flow from that portfolio. That is what we are aiming for Norwegian Continental Shelf, internationally and integrated power.
我們正在努力將從勘探到生產的時間從五到七年縮短到兩到三年,從而提高效率,使挪威大陸架的產量保持在盡可能高的水平,並增加該投資組合的自由現金流。這就是我們為挪威大陸架設定的目標:國際一體化的強大力量。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Paul. On MMP, so if you strip away the price review, you get to around $400 million in the fourth quarter, which is very much around sort of what we guide at. So that's sort of what you should, in a way, expect on a quarterly basis. However, there will be fluctuations as you very well know. What typically drives results are volatility in commodity markets and also contango versus backwardation.
謝謝你,保羅。如果剔除價格評估因素,MMP 第四季營收約 4 億美元,這與我們的預期基本一致。所以從某種程度上說,這就是你每個季度應該期待的情況。但是,正如你所知,價格會有波動。通常情況下,商品市場的波動性以及期貨溢價與期貨貼水關係是影響市場結果的主要因素。
I can give you one example, actually, from January, where there has been a lot of volatility in the gas market. And in Europe, we have a 70% day ahead exposure and a 30% month ahead exposure. So you can rest assured that sort of the spikes you have seen in January, it finds its way to our P&L in Europe.
實際上,我可以舉一個例子,那就是一月份天然氣市場波動劇烈的情況。在歐洲,我們有 70% 的日內風險敞口和 30% 的月內風險敞口。所以您可以放心,您在 1 月看到的那些峰值,最終都會反映到我們在歐洲的損益表中。
In the US, we don't sort of have a firm exposure that we want, but clearly the traders keep a certain part open. So when going into January, in the US, our traders left 30% exposed to the prompt or the cash prices. So, at the most extreme, for instance, the in-basin price for our Marcellus gas was $60 per MBtu, and we took that. And then we have a transportation capacity into New York, actually coming up at Penn Station. And we achieved more than $100 per MBtu that weekend.
在美國,我們並沒有我們想要的那種穩固的投資曝險,但顯然交易員們會保持一定比例的投資曝險。因此,進入1月時,在美國,我們的交易員將30%的資金暴露於即期或現貨價格。例如,在最極端的情況下,我們馬塞勒斯盆地天然氣的價格為每百萬英熱單位 60 美元,我們接受了這個價格。然後,我們還有前往紐約的交通能力,實際上就在賓州車站。那個週末,我們的收益超過了每兆巴100美元。
Just examples of when you see volatility, you should expect us to be able to get it in a way. So that's why these results typically fluctuates.
這只是舉例說明,當你看到市場波動時,你應該預料到我們能夠以某種方式應對它。所以這就是為什麼這些結果通常會波動的原因。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Vidar Lyngvaer, Danske Bank.
Vidar Lyngvaer,丹麥銀行。
Vidar Skogset Lyngvaer - Analyst
Vidar Skogset Lyngvaer - Analyst
Thank you. First, just another clarification on the renewable spending in 2027. You're reducing CapEx by $4 billion. I get the tax credit part. Could you add some more color on where the, the remaining cut comes from?
謝謝。首先,再澄清一下 2027 年再生能源支出狀況。你們將資本支出減少了40億美元。我明白稅收抵免那部分。能否再詳細解釋一下剩餘的切塊來自哪裡?
Second, Johan Sverdrup, you mentioned the decline rates there. Are those exit to exit, so exit 2025 to exit 2026, or is it average, production decline in 2026 versus average in 2025? Thank you.
其次,Johan Sverdrup,你提到了那裡的下降率。這些是指從 2025 年到 2026 年的退出情況,還是指 2026 年的平均產量下降幅度與 2025 年的平均產量下降幅度之比?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Johan Sverdrup, exit to exit or --
Johan Sverdrup,出口到出口或--
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
You know, let's come back to the specifics on that, but I do think it is you when you compare sort of the last year production with next year production. Just, yeah, and I see my team is nodding there, so that is the way it works. Yeah.
你知道,我們還是回到具體細節上來討論這個問題吧,但我確實認為,當你把去年的產量和明年的產量進行比較時,問題就出在你身上了。沒錯,我看到我的團隊也在點頭,所以事情就是這樣運作的。是的。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, a little bit more color to this. As I answered earlier, we had a different market view. So we had, for instance, potential hydrogen project, transportation of CCS project in the CapEx outlook that we showed last year. Those projects are not materializing.
是的,這幅畫再增添一些色彩。正如我之前回答的那樣,我們對市場的看法不同。例如,我們在去年的資本支出展望中就包含了潛在的氫能項目和CCS項目的運輸。這些項目並沒有落實。
In addition, we have reduced our onshore renewable CapEx as well, and in total, this adds up to those $4 billion, and together with also with the ITC, as you have seen.
此外,我們也減少了陸上再生能源資本支出,總計減少了 40 億美元,再加上投資稅收抵免,正如您所看到的。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Steffen Evjen, DNB Carnegie.
Steffen Evjen,DNB Carnegie。
Steffen Evjen - Analyst
Steffen Evjen - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. On the ITC, just could you please remind me on the milestones that are required for that payment to come in, in terms of first power and any other things that has to be fulfilled?
謝謝您回答我的問題。關於ITC,您能否提醒我一下,要收到這筆款項,需要達到哪些里程碑,例如首次供電以及其他需要滿足的條件?
My second question is just a clarification on Adura. I think you said $1 billion in dividends. Is that your share or is that the total share to both shareholders? Thanks.
我的第二個問題只是想澄清一下關於Adura的情況。我想你說過股息是10億美元。這是你個人的份額,還是兩位股東的總份額?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
It's our share, and then the ITC.
這是我們的份額,然後是國際貿易委員會的份額。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
ITC, yeah. So the way it works is that you can recognize it when you start production, and sort of that is on a scale as you continue to start up the various turbines. So what we have assumed is that we recognize all of this in 2027, because that's sort of the plan. There is an upside that there is some ITCs recognized in 2026. We haven't based our analysis on it. So that is sort of the recognition part. And then there is so what is the cash flow impact of it? And it will take some time from we recognize it to the cash flow is in our account.
是的,ITC。所以它的工作原理是,當你開始生產時,你就能識別出它,而且隨著你不斷啟動各種渦輪機,這種識別會逐漸擴大。所以我們假設我們會在 2027 年認識到這一切,因為這大致就是計劃。好消息是,2026 年有一些投資稅收抵免得到認可。我們的分析並非基於此。這就是識別環節。那麼,這對現金流有何影響?從我們意識到這一點到現金流真正進入我們的帳戶,還需要一段時間。
What you see on the slide is that we have assumed $2 billion impact of the ITC in 2027, while the total number, the absolute number, is $2.5 billion. That's sort of give you a little bit of a perspective around this. It is a significant financial operations to manage all of this, as you would know, but there is a large and growing market for ITC, and a well-functioning market in the US for this.
您在投影片上看到的是,我們假設 ITC 在 2027 年的影響為 20 億美元,而總數(絕對值)為 25 億美元。這或許能讓你對這件事有更全面的了解。如您所知,管理所有這些業務需要大量的資金,但資訊科技中心 (ITC) 的市場規模龐大且不斷成長,而美國的資訊科技中心市場運作良好。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.
馬丁‧拉茨,摩根士丹利。
Martijn Rats - Analyst
Martijn Rats - Analyst
Yeah, good morning. I've got two, if I may. I wanted to ask you, again, about the CapEx reductions. I know there have been a few questions about it already, but, when, Equinor took the initial 10% stake, in Ãrsted, very soon thereafter, we also had a, a reduction in the CapEx outlook for offshore wind renewables in general. And in many ways, that had the character, therefore, when you put these two things together, it's like, well, we do less organically and we do more inorganically. It was sort of a -- not a total reduction, but it had an element of we're swapping one type of spending for another type of spending.
早安.如果可以的話,我有兩個。我想再次詢問關於資本支出削減的問題。我知道已經有人問過這個問題了,但是,當 Equinor 收購 Ärsted 最初的 10% 股份後不久,我們也看到海上風能再生能源的資本支出預期總體有所下降。從很多方面來說,這就具有了這種特性,因此,當你把這兩件事放在一起時,就好像,嗯,我們有機地做的事情越來越少,無機地做的事情越來越多。這算是一種——不是完全的減少,而是用一種類型的支出來取代另一種類型的支出。
And I was wondering, how we should interpret, this reduction, in CapEx on this occasion. If power and low carbon CapEx goes down, is that -- should we interpret that as well the company's just gonna do less of that stuff? Or should we anticipate that in the fullness of time, this also turns out to be a swap? Yeah, well, less organic but more inorganic. I was hoping you could say a few things about that.
我想知道,我們該如何解讀這次資本支出減少的情況。如果電力和低碳資本支出下降,這是否意味著──我們是否也可以這樣理解:公司將減少這方面的投入?或者我們應該預料到,隨著時間的推移,這最終也會變成一場交換?是的,有機物含量較低,無機物含量較高。我希望你能就此談談你的看法。
And then the other question I wanted to ask is about the 10% OpEx and SG&A reduction target. Like, 10% in a single year is quite a significant amount, and also because of, yeah Equinor has already been very focused on that for some time. I was positively surprised that there are still sort of that type of opportunity available.
然後,我想問的另一個問題是關於營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用降低 10% 的目標。一年內成長 10% 是一個相當大的數字,而且,Equinor 也已經在這方面投入了大量精力一段時間了。令我驚訝的是,現在仍然存在這類機會。
Could you talk a little bit about the key levers, where that spending can be reduced? And also, just for the avoidance of doubt, 10%, how does that translate into, into absolute sort of absolute dollar amounts? That would be helpful.
能否談談可以減少這部分支出的關鍵槓桿作用?另外,為了避免任何疑問,10% 換算成絕對的美元金額是多少?那會很有幫助。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Let's start with that question first, then, Torgrim.
那麼,托格里姆,我們就先從這個問題開始吧。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Okay, thanks. Thanks, Martin. So on the 10% reduction. So, over the last years, we have been able to maintain OpEx and SG&A flat, even if we have grown our production and despite the inflation. So our people and organization has done a good job.
好的,謝謝。謝謝你,馬丁。所以,降幅為10%。因此,在過去的幾年裡,即使我們的產量有所增長,而且通貨膨脹加劇,我們仍然能夠保持營運支出和銷售、管理及行政費用的穩定。所以,我們的人員和組織做得很好。
Next year, we expect that number to come down by 10%. That is a very big number. However, it is a significant impact of the divestment of Peregrino and the establishment of Adura that will be equity accounted. So the reported numbers will be down 10%, but when you adjust for structural changes, we expect to maintain OpEx and SG&A flat, growing by 3% and still inflation. So this comes from many sources.
我們預計明年這個數字將下降10%。這是一個非常大的數字。然而,Peregrino 的剝離和 Adura 的成立所帶來的重大影響將透過權益法進行核算。因此,公佈的數字將下降 10%,但考慮到結構性變化,我們預計營運支出和銷售、一般及行政費用將保持不變,成長 3%,但仍將低於通貨膨脹率。所以這說法是來自很多方面。
First of all, activity level. Clearly, we have taken down and prioritized that very hard. That has a direct impact on it. We have taken down early phase costs significantly in the portfolio, also a significant contributor. Staffs are continued to high grade and take out efficiencies, and then the business areas are clearly working on this.
首先是活動水平。顯然,我們已經認真對待並優先處理了此事。那會對它產生直接影響。我們也大幅降低了投資組合的早期階段成本,這也是一個重要的貢獻因素。員工繼續保持高素質並提高效率,然後業務部門顯然正在為此努力。
So, but on your question, is there more to come? And the answer is yes, we are never satisfied with where we are on this. And I can give you two examples of what to come. One is the work around NCS 2035. We do see a significant cost impact of that. So we hope to show more on that in June. The other one is actually artificial intelligence.
那麼,關於你的問題,是否還有後續?答案是肯定的,我們永遠不會對目前所處的位置感到滿意。我可以舉兩個例子來說明未來會發生什麼事。其中一項是圍繞 NCS 2035 進行的工作。我們確實看到了這帶來的顯著成本影響。所以我們希望六月能展示更多相關資訊。另一個其實是人工智慧。
So we have already seen that in our numbers, NOK1 billion or so, which is good. However, this is early days, and we do believe that with our large operations and our ability to take out effect across assets, that AI can really be a significant contributor to further cost improvements. So we'll continue to fight and work this, and but the 10% is clearly colored by the inorganic moves we have done.
所以我們已經從數據中看到,大約10億挪威克朗,這很好。然而,現在還處於早期階段,我們相信,憑藉我們龐大的營運規模和跨資產實施的能力,人工智慧確實可以成為進一步降低成本的重要因素。所以我們會繼續為此奮鬥和努力,但這 10% 的成長顯然受到了我們所採取的非自然成長措施的影響。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So, thank you for that CapEx question, Martin. And let me elaborate a little bit how I think around this. Because you've probably seen now that several times, we have taken down the renewables and low-carbon solution CapEx. And it's not necessarily because we have done any inorganic moves. It's also because we have not been successful in some of the bidding because we have raised the bar for winning future CFDs. And a couple of years ago, we had several projects inside our CapEx outlook that is now not inside the CapEx outlook due to deliberately not being successful in those auctions.
是的。謝謝你提出的關於資本支出的問題,馬丁。讓我再詳細闡述我的想法。因為您可能已經多次看到,我們已經削減了再生能源和低碳解決方案的資本支出。這並不一定是因為我們已經採取了任何非自然成長的舉措。這也是因為我們提高了未來差價合約的得標標準,導致我們在一些競標中未能成功。幾年前,我們有一些項目列入了資本支出展望計劃,但由於我們故意在競標中失敗,這些項目現在已經從資本支出展望計劃中移除。
So a more positive view some years ago, as we said, during the Ãsted transaction, acquisition of 10%, we found it more value creating at that point in time, to do an inorganic move than to do an organic move. This, we have further taken down the CapEx for offshore wind, but also on onshore renewables. A couple of years ago, and last year, we had a much more positive market view and direct discussions with customers for CO2 Highway and the hydrogen project in Eemshaven, which are now pushed further out in time. And actually, the hydrogen projects in Eemshaven is stopped before FEED, and we will not move forward.
所以幾年前,正如我們所說,在收購 Ästed 10% 股份的交易中,我們持更正面的觀點,我們認為在當時進行非有機成長比進行有機成長更有價值。這樣一來,我們不僅進一步降低了離岸風電的資本支出,也降低了陸上再生能源的資本支出。幾年前和去年,我們對二氧化碳高速公路和埃姆斯哈芬氫能項目的市場前景持更加樂觀的態度,並與客戶進行了直接討論,但現在這些項目都被進一步推遲了。事實上,艾姆斯哈文的氫能計畫在前端工程設計(FEED)階段就已經停止了,我們將不會繼續進行。
In these areas, I don't think there are many inorganic moves to be done that will create value. So you should not expect us to work much on this. We will continue to work on being a leading company in terms of transportation and storage of CO2, building on Northern Lights one, two, and Endurance. But we will not make investments before we see we have long-term contracts, we have seen costs coming down, and we see profitable projects. That means that there needs to be a better market than we see today.
在這些領域,我認為沒有太多能夠創造價值的非有機成長措施可以實施。所以你們不要期待我們在這方面投入太多精力。我們將繼續努力成為二氧化碳運輸和儲存領域的領先公司,以「北極光一號」、「北極光二號」和「耐力號」計畫為基礎。但是,在我們看到長期合約、成本下降和盈利項目之前,我們不會進行投資。這意味著我們需要一個比現在更好的市場。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Naisheng Cui, Barclays.
崔乃生,巴克萊銀行。
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Two questions, please. The first one is on your upstream reserve life. I wonder, how do you think about reasonable level of upstream reserve life in the medium to long run place, could better technologies like AI to help extend this?
大家好,下午好。請問兩個問題。第一個是關於你的上游儲備壽命。我想知道,您如何看待中長期內合理的上游儲層壽命水平?人工智慧等更先進的技術能否幫助延長儲層壽命?
Then my second question is on Ãrsted. I think earlier you mentioned that you could collaborate more with Ãrsted, in kind of different types of potential structures, and I wonder if you could elaborate what you mean by the potential structures. Thank you.
我的第二個問題是關於 Örsted 的。我想你之前提到過,你可以與 Örsted 在不同類型的潛在結構中進行更多合作,我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下你所說的潛在結構是什麼意思。謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, you have seen what we have done, just an example with Shell in the UK. There's always a way to work together to create value for both shareholders. But there is no discussion at the moment, but we see that a further collaboration with Ãrsted could benefit both companies, but nothing new to elaborate today. When it comes to reserve life, I think this will also, the R over P, will be affected in the years to come, that we have many more exploration wells, smaller discoveries, and faster time from discoveries to production.
嗯,你們已經看到了我們所做的事情,這只是英國殼牌公司的一個例子。總有辦法透過合作為雙方股東創造價值。但目前還沒有討論,不過我們認為與 Örsted 的進一步合作可能會讓兩家公司都受益,但今天沒有什麼新的細節需要詳細說明。就儲量壽命而言,我認為未來幾年,隨著勘探井數量的增加、小型發現的增加以及從發現到投產時間的縮短,R/P(資源利用率)也會受到影響。
Meaning that the R over P will be lower than traditionally when we had the big elephants on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. At the same time, we are comfortable with our R over P where we see it today around seven because we have so many exploration wells, we have discoveries. And last year we had 14 discoveries, adding in total 125 million barrels in new resources. Lofn and Langemann, which is in Sleipner area, is in an area where we thought there was nothing more to be found. But new technology, new seismic, use of AI has enabled us to make more discoveries. We have seen the same in the Ringvei Vest area.
這意味著,當挪威大陸架上有大型石油儲量時,R/P 將低於傳統水準。同時,我們對目前的 R/P 值(約 7)感到滿意,因為我們有許多勘探井,也有很多發現。去年我們又發現了 14 個油田,總共新增了 1.25 億桶石油資源。洛夫恩和朗格曼位於斯萊普納地區,我們原本以為在這個地區已經沒有什麼可發現的了。但是新技術、新的地震勘探技術以及人工智慧的應用,使我們能夠取得更多發現。我們在環城大道(Ringvei Vest)地區也看到了同樣的情況。
So we will continue to implement AI in exploration to ensure that we're able to discover new resources that was overseen in the past that we now can drill and bring to market in a quicker way. And by using AI, not only on exploration, but also in operations and so on, we saved $130 million last years. And this is accelerating, so as Torgrim said earlier, we are really focusing on implementing AI to create value in the company. And this is something that you will hear more about in the future.
因此,我們將繼續在勘探中應用人工智慧,以確保我們能夠發現過去被忽視的新資源,現在我們可以更快地鑽探並將其推向市場。透過使用人工智慧,不僅在勘探方面,而且在營運等方面,我們去年節省了 1.3 億美元。而這一趨勢正在加速發展,正如 Torgrim 之前所說,我們正在真正專注於實施人工智慧,為公司創造價值。未來你們還會聽到更多關於這方面的資訊。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.
Jason Gabelman,TD Cowen。
Jason Gabelman - Analyst
Jason Gabelman - Analyst
I wanted to first go back to the Empire Wind guidance, and I'm wondering if the $600 million of cash flow is that what Equinor expects to receive, or are there going to be some repayments on the project financing that are going to minimize that in the earlier years? And I wonder if you have a similar number for the Dogger projects.
我想先回到 Empire Wind 的業績指引上來,我想知道 6 億美元的現金流是 Equinor 預期收到的,還是說專案融資的一些償還會在早期階段減少這部分現金流?我想知道你們是否也有關於 Dogger 項目的類似數據。
And then my follow-up is just on kind of broader exploration opportunities beyond what you've discussed. And we've seen companies kind of going back into regions where fiscal terms have improved, like the Middle East and West Africa. I wonder if you look at those regions as potential opportunities, for the company to exploit, or given kind of a lack of footprint in those regions, is it not a core focus? Thanks.
然後,我的後續問題是關於超出你們所討論範圍的更廣泛的探索機會。我們看到一些公司正在重返財政條件改善的地區,例如中東和西非。我想知道,您是否將這些地區視為公司可以利用的潛在機會,或者考慮到公司在這些地區缺乏業務,這是否不是公司的核心關注點?謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I'll start with that question and you can do the $600 million and the synergy effects there. So, basically, what you have seen, what we have done, in the international oil and gas portfolio, is to focus it. We were in 30 to 40 countries, high cost, high exploration cost, and we have concluded that we were not successful with that strategy, adding too much cost and too little of progress in putting new resources into the inventory.
是的。我先回答這個問題,你可以自己計算一下這 6 億美元以及由此產生的綜效。所以,基本上,你們看到的,我們在國際油氣投資組合中所做的,就是集中精力。我們曾涉足 30 到 40 個國家,成本高昂,勘探成本也很高,我們最終得出結論,這種策略並不成功,成本過高,而將新資源納入庫存的進展卻太少。
So, we have worked very hard to focus and building an attractive exploration portfolio in those focused areas, like in Angola, in Brazil, and in US offshore. Of course, Bay du Nord off East Canada, we're working on the Bay du Nord field, where this will also have attractive exploration opportunities around it, similar to what we see on Castberg and all other new fields.
因此,我們非常努力地專注於安哥拉、巴西和美國近海等重點區域,並建立了一個有吸引力的勘探組合。當然,在加拿大東部的北灣,我們正在開發北灣油田,那裡周圍也將有誘人的勘探機會,類似於我們在卡斯特伯格和其他所有新油田看到的情況。
Then, of course, we will, of course, always be open for ideas and value-adding exploration activity outside this core, but the bar is high. We will not have a global exploration strategy moving around in all parts of the world. We have areas where we see now we have learned the basin, we have experience, and we think we can expand quite a lot on that one. Brazil, for one instance by Bacalhau, the Raia, we have an attractive exploration opportunities there now. The neighbour block to the Bumerangue discoveries for BP. We have a block close to Raia, and we're maturing up to see what kind of exploration program we can have in that area. And in this year, we will actually also drill exploration wells in Angola.
當然,我們始終對核心領域以外的想法和增值探索活動持開放態度,但標準很高。我們不會制定一項遍及全球的勘探策略。在某些領域,我們現在已經了解了盆地情況,積累了經驗,我們認為我們可以在這方面取得很大的進展。例如巴西的巴卡勞和拉亞,我們現在在那裡有極具吸引力的勘探機會。BP公司布梅朗格油田的鄰近區塊。我們在 Raia 附近有一個區塊,我們正在進行充分的準備,看看我們可以在該地區進行什麼樣的勘探計劃。今年,我們也將在安哥拉鑽探勘探井。
So, we are curious about other areas, but we'll have most of our focus in the focused area.
所以,我們對其他領域也很感興趣,但我們大部分的精力將集中在重點領域。
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And then, Jason, on the $600 million in cash flow related to Empire Wind, that is related to our equity. As such, there's no sort of money of that goes to the lenders. A couple of things: there is a portfolio effect in addition to the cash flow within the project. And that is related to that the depreciation that we have in Empire Wind goes into the IFRS results, and the minimum tax in the US is based on IFRS results. So it sort of reduces the minimum tax payments in the States. So there's a portfolio effect coming on top of the direct cash flow in the project.
然後,Jason,關於與 Empire Wind 相關的 6 億美元現金流,這與我們的股權有關。因此,這筆錢不會流向貸款方。有幾點要注意:除了專案內部的現金流量之外,還有投資組合效應。這與帝國風能公司的折舊計入國際財務報告準則(IFRS)結果有關,而美國的最低稅率是根據國際財務報告準則(IFRS)結果確定的。所以這在某種程度上降低了美國的最低稅額。因此,除了專案直接現金流量之外,還會產生投資組合效應。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Just to clarify, in the CFFO, the interest payment is included, but not the payment to the lenders, as you have said, Torgrim?
為了澄清一下,CFFO中包含了利息支出,但不包括支付給貸款人的款項,正如你所說,Torgrim?
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Kim Fustier, HSBC.
金·富斯蒂爾,匯豐銀行。
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a couple on the NCS, please. Firstly, I believe that back in November, you announced a reorganization of your NCS business along centralized functional lines, like subsea drilling, et cetera. Could you give a bit more color on this, and how does that move help to set you up for a future on the NCS with fewer big developments, but more small developments?
您好,下午好。謝謝您回答我的問題。我在NCS上有幾個。首先,我相信早在去年 11 月,您就宣布了對您的 NCS 業務進行重組,並按照集中化的功能劃分,例如海底鑽井等。您能否再詳細解釋一下,以及此舉如何幫助您在NCS的未來發展中減少大型開發項目,增加小型開發項目?
And then secondly, could you give an update on a couple of pre-FID projects, Wisting and Bay du Nord in Canada, where there seems to have been some technical progress lately. Thank you.
其次,您能否介紹幾個 FID 前項目,例如加拿大的 Wisting 和 Bay du Nord,這兩個項目最近似乎取得了一些技術進展。謝謝。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you. So the Norwegian continental shelf is changing. With after Johan Sverdrup and Bacalhau, we have, as I said, much more smaller discoveries, smaller fields. Most of the developments will be now subsea tie-in projects.
是的。謝謝。所以挪威大陸棚正在改變。正如我所說,繼 Johan Sverdrup 和 Bacalhau 之後,我們有了更多的小型發現和更小的油田。現在大部分開發案都將是海底連接項目。
We actually have 75 of those in our portfolio over the next 10 years. So it's about making sure that we're able to execute on these projects faster. We are going -- that we can drill more exploration well faster, and we can create more value. So then we have actually started with looking into how we work. how is our work processes, all the way from working together with partners, internal approval processes, field development processes for subsea tie-in and so on.
未來 10 年,我們的投資組合中實際上有 75 個這樣的項目。所以關鍵在於確保我們能夠更快地執行這些專案。我們正在朝著這個方向努力——我們可以更快地鑽探更多勘探井,創造更多價值。所以,我們首先著手研究我們的工作方式,包括我們的工作流程,從與合作夥伴的協作、內部審批流程、海底連接的油田開發流程等等。
We have looked at 70 work processes, how to -- from drilling to development and so on. We have simplified those work processes, and we have looked at them together such that all these processes are streamlined end to end. And just to say a change that I will do, instead of making seven, eight individual decisions on these projects one by one, we will group the decision. And twice a year, I will make a lump decision of several projects, enabling faster decision-making processes and ensure that we're able to move this project faster.
我們已經研究了 70 個工作流程,包括從鑽井到開發等等。我們簡化了這些工作流程,並將它們整合起來進行審視,從而使所有這些流程從頭到尾都得到了簡化。另外,我要說明一個改變,與其對這些項目逐一做出七、八個單獨的決定,不如將這些決定集中起來。每年兩次,我會對幾個專案進行集中決策,從而加快決策過程,確保我們能夠更快地推進專案。
Based on changing the way we work, we are also reorganizing both the project organization, the drilling organization and the operation units on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, not offshore, but all the onshore function, enabling to work according to the new simplified work processes. So this is actually one of the largest changes we have done developing the Norwegian continental shelf since we established the Statoil Hydro company and merged Statoil Hydro back in 2007, 2008. So it's actually changing the way we work because the geology and the reserves on the Norwegian continental shelf changes. And what do we want to achieve? Well, we want to move time from discovery to production from five to seven years to two to three years, and we need to increase the volumes that we are able to find during exploration, meaning that we need a 200-300efficiency gains on the Norwegian continental shelf.
基於我們工作方式的改變,我們也在重組挪威大陸架上的專案組織、鑽井組織和作業部門(不是海上作業,而是所有陸上職能部門),以便能夠按照新的簡化工作流程開展工作。因此,這實際上是我們自 2007 年、2008 年成立 Statoil Hydro 公司並合併 Statoil Hydro 以來,在開發挪威大陸架方面所進行的最大變革之一。所以,這實際上正在改變我們的工作方式,因為挪威大陸架的地質和儲量發生了變化。我們想要達到什麼目標?我們希望將從發現到生產的時間從五到七年縮短到兩到三年,我們需要增加勘探過程中能夠發現的儲量,這意味著我們需要在挪威大陸架上提高 200-300% 的效率。
When it comes to Wisting, this is far in the north in the Barents Sea, challenging projects. We're working hard to simplify it. We have made a lot of progress in that respect. We will work on concluding on the concept during first half of 2026 or in 2026 and then move towards hopefully a DG3 during 2027. But let me underline this.
說到威斯汀,它位於巴倫支海北部,面臨著極具挑戰性的計畫。我們正在努力簡化它。我們在這方面取得了很大進展。我們將在 2026 年上半年或 2026 年完成概念的完善,然後預計在 2027 年實現 DG3。但我要強調一點。
We are not schedule driven. This is a project where we have to make sure that this is the right project, right financial, right breakeven, NPV, and we have everything in place because this is a very, very challenging project. On the Bay de Nord, we are approaching also a concept selection at what we call Decision Gate 2. We have a good engagement with local authorities and the government of Canada, so we can work together. This is a very good project.
我們不受日程安排的束縛。這是一個非常具有挑戰性的項目,我們必須確保這是一個正確的項目,財務狀況良好,盈虧平衡點和淨現值都正確,並且我們已經做好了一切準備。在北灣,我們也即將進入我們稱為決策門 2 的概念選擇階段。我們與地方當局和加拿大政府保持良好的合作關係,因此我們可以共同努力。這是一個非常好的項目。
We have worked well together with suppliers for a long time to take down the cost and the breakeven as much as possible. And if we are successful now over the next months, then we can bring it towards an investment decision over the next years. And both these projects, if we are successful, will contribute to high production beyond 2030.
我們與供應商長期以來保持良好的合作關係,盡可能降低成本和損益平衡點。如果我們在接下來的幾個月裡取得成功,那麼我們可以在未來幾年內做出投資決策。如果這兩個項目都能成功,將有助於2030年後實現高產量。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Chris Kuplent, Bank of America.
克里斯‧庫普倫特,美國銀行。
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
I'll keep it to one question for Torgrim, and please forgive me for some quick mental math. But when you set your $1.5 billion buyback, are you effectively arguing over the course of '26 and '27, considering the lumps and bumps in your CFFO as well as CapEx, you're targeting to be free cash flow neutral after dividends and buybacks. Am I putting too many words in your mouth? Or is that a fair characterization of what you're trying to do over the next two years?
我只問托格里姆一個問題,請原諒我快速心算。但是,當你設定 15 億美元的回購目標時,考慮到 2026 年和 2027 年期間 CFFO 和資本支出的波動,你實際上是在權衡利弊,目標是在支付股息和回購後實現自由現金流中性。我是否替你多說了幾句?或者說,這是否能恰當地描述你未來兩年想做的事情?
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Torgrim Reitan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, Chris, I think I need to be very precise here. So I mean, you're on to it. So clearly, you should look across those two years when you think about sort of our free cash flow generation that we have available to cash dividend and share buyback. We aim to run with a solid balance sheet. However, we are going to lean on the balance sheet in '26, well aware that next year is a larger free cash flow.
克里斯,我覺得我需要在這裡說得非常清楚一些。所以我的意思是,你已經明白了。所以很明顯,在考慮我們可用於支付股息和股票回購的自由現金流時,你應該把這兩年的時間看進去。我們的目標是保持穩健的資產負債表。但是,我們2026年將依賴資產負債表,因為我們很清楚明年的自由現金流會更大。
So it makes sense to look across those two years. And we have done that when we have set the share buyback level for '26, we have.
所以,把這兩年的數據結合起來看是有意義的。我們已經在設定 2026 年股票回購水準時做到了這一點。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.
馬特‧洛夫廷,摩根大通。
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Just one on Empire Wind and read-throughs filed. I mean it seems Equinor has done a good job keeping the project execution on track amid the past hold orders. But I just wonder how the company reflects on implications from this and having retained 100% equity stake through it for best assessing risk management and risk-adjusted returns, let's say, on future capital allocations. Are there learnings that are emerging from Empire Wind for optimal sizing, taking into account perhaps above as well as belowground factors?
帝國之風只提交了一份,而且已經完成了閱讀。我的意思是,儘管過去曾多次下達暫停令,但Equinor似乎在保持專案執行按計劃進行方面做得很好。但我只是想知道,公司如何看待此事的影響,以及如何透過保留 100% 的股權來更好地評估風險管理和風險調整後的回報,例如,在未來的資本配置方面。從帝國風能計畫中,我們能否汲取一些經驗教訓,從而在確定最佳規模方面取得突破,同時考慮到地上和地下因素?
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. That's a really good question. And yes, this is definitely something to reflect on. And we normally don't take 100% in any license, not on oil and gas and not in offshore wind. But due to a deal with BP, they took some and we took this.
謝謝。這真是個好問題。是的,這確實值得深思。我們通常不會在任何許可證中持有 100% 的股份,無論是石油天然氣還是離岸風電。但由於與英國石油公司達成了一項協議,他們拿走了一部分,我們拿走了這部分。
We derisked it somewhat with higher strike prices with a financing package. And then as you have seen, the political risk with the new administration was higher than anticipated. This is a trend we see now in several countries that energy investments are more and more politicalized and polarized.
我們透過提高行使價格並配合融資方案,在一定程度上降低了風險。正如你所看到的,新政府帶來的政治風險比預期的要高。目前在一些國家,能源投資越來越政治化和兩極化,這是一種趨勢。
And we see it in Norway. We see it in UK, we see it in US. And definitely, for us, this brings some reflections about what is the above-ground risk you can take. And for myself, I reflected quite a lot about to see bipartisan support for future projects. If there is a kind of a strong division for potential projects, then we need to think twice and really understand the political risk. And this is something new. It's not only in US. This is something new that we have seen lately in several countries.
我們在挪威也看到了這種情況。我們在英國看到了這種情況,我們在美國也看到了這種情況。對我們來說,這無疑引發了我們對地面以上風險的思考。至於我自己,我一直在思考如何在未來的計畫中獲得兩黨支持。如果潛在項目之間存在某種程度的嚴重分歧,那麼我們就需要三思而後行,真正了解其中的政治風險。這是新情況。這種情況並非只發生在美國。這是我們最近在一些國家看到的新現象。
And kind of we need to adapt the learning, and we need to bring into future decision processes definitely. Very important question you raised there. And with the political changes we have seen, which were kind of outweighted all the other factors that was reducing the risk, we would have probably thought differently about Empire Wind in the past.
我們需要調整學習方式,並且一定要將其融入未來的決策過程中。你提出的問題非常重要。鑑於我們所看到的政治變化,這些變化在某種程度上超過了所有其他降低風險的因素,我們過去可能會對帝國之風公司有不同的看法。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
James Carmichael, Berenberg.
詹姆斯·卡邁克爾,貝倫貝格銀行。
James Carmichael - Analyst
James Carmichael - Analyst
Just one last quick one, I think. Just again on Empire Wind. I was just wondering if you could clarify your sort of best case estimate on the timing of the underlying court case and when we might be able to sort of put any uncertainty to bed, around sort of future hold orders, et cetera.
我想,就最後一個簡短的吧。又是在帝國之風上。我只是想問一下,您能否澄清一下您對相關訴訟案件時間表的最佳估計,以及我們何時能夠消除任何不確定性,例如未來的扣押令等等。
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Anders Opedal - President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. This is a little bit early to say kind of because it's a judge in US to decide that timing when this -- the merits of the case will come up for the court. There's been indication that will happen fairly quick with some couple of months, and that gives us opportunity to elaborate on the case in a good way. I just want to also remind you that all the four other operators we're doing exactly the same thing, challenging this in court and all of them were granted a preliminary injunction.
是的。現在說這個還為時過早,因為在美國,案件的實質何時提交法庭審理,是由法官來決定的。有跡象表明,這種情況會在幾個月內很快發生,這給了我們一個機會來好好闡述這個案子。我還要提醒各位,其他四家業者也都在做同樣的事情,在法庭上對此提出質疑,而且他們都獲得了初步禁令。
We mean that this stop-work order was unlawful. And at least with so consistent preliminary injunction, I think also we have a strong case moving forward. But I'm an engineer and not a lawyer. So -- but yes, we are moving forward with a strong belief that we will have a good case in the court, strong case.
我的意思是,這項停工令是非法的。至少有瞭如此一致的初步禁令,我認為我們也有強有力的理由繼續推進訴訟。但我是工程師,不是律師。所以——是的,我們堅信我們在法庭上會有很好的勝算,非常有力的勝算。
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
BÃ¥rd Pedersen - Senior vice president Equinor, Norway Head of Investor Relations
Thank you. I would like to thank you all for participating and for asking your questions. We didn't manage all the way through the list, but I want to be respectful for everybody's time. And as always, the Investor Relations team remain available for any follow-up questions during today or later in the week. Have a good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining.
謝謝。感謝各位的參與與提問。我們沒能把名單上的所有項目都完成,但我想尊重每個人的時間。和往常一樣,投資者關係團隊將在今天或本週晚些時候繼續解答任何後續問題。祝大家下午愉快,感謝各位的參與。