Equinor ASA (EQNR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, everyone, to the Equinor Analyst Call Q1. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I will now like to hand the call over to Mr. BÃ¥rd Glad Pedersen, Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎大家參加 Equinor 分析師電話會議第一季。 （操作員說明）謝謝。我現在將電話轉交給資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Bård Glad Pedersen 先生。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning to you all. My name is BÃ¥rd Glad Pedersen, and I'm heading up Investor Relations in Equinor. As usual, I'm here together with Torgrim Reitan, our CFO. Torgrim will take you through our results first before we open for the Q&A, and we will keep this within 1 hour.

謝謝您，接線員，祝大家早安。我叫 Bård Glad Pedersen，負責 Equinor 的投資人關係部門。像往常一樣，我和我們的財務長 Torgrim Reitan 一起來到這裡。在我們開始問答之前，Torgrim 將首先向您介紹我們的結果，我們將在 1 小時內完成。

So with that, I hand it to you, Torgrim.

那麼，我就把它交給你了，托格瑞姆。

Okay. So thank you very much, BÃ¥rd, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us. I hope you all are doing well and are being well since we last met in February. So let's dive straight into the results.

好的。非常感謝你，伯德，早安，感謝大家加入我們。我希望你們都一切順利，並且自從我們上次二月份見面以來一切都很好。那麼讓我們直接看看結果。

Today, we delivered solid financial results, driven by strong operational performance and production in a quarter with increasing liquids prices but lower gas prices than we saw last year. The solid results are also supported by MMP coming in above the guided range. From this quarter, we have introduced adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share as new performance measures. We also renamed some measures to better align with industry practice and we no longer adjust for over- and underlift.

今天，我們取得了穩健的財務業績，這得益於本季強勁的營運業績和產量，液體價格上漲，但天然氣價格低於去年。高於指引範圍的 MMP 也支持了可靠的結果。從本季開始，我們引入了調整後淨利和調整後每股收益作為新的業績衡量指標。我們也重新命名了一些措施，以更好地符合行業慣例，並且我們不再針對過度提升和不足進行調整。

In the quarter, we report adjusted operating income of $7.5 billion before tax and a net income of $2.7 billion. We delivered solid cash flow from operations of $9.7 billion and $5.8 billion after tax. And earnings per share were $0.96. We continue to make strategic progress across the portfolio. Earlier this year, we were awarded 39 new production licenses on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. We know that area well and we are confident that we will make new discoveries.

本季度，我們報告調整後稅前營業收入為 75 億美元，淨利潤為 27 億美元。我們的營運現金流量穩定，分別為 97 億美元和稅後 58 億美元。每股收益為 0.96 美元。我們繼續在整個投資組合中取得策略進展。今年早些時候，我們在挪威大陸架獲得了 39 個新的生產許可證。我們非常了解該地區，並且有信心取得新的發現。

We are cutting emissions while we invest. And recently, the Sleipner and Gudrun fields on the NCS were connected to power-from-shore. We reduced CO2 by 160,000 tonnes per year, and that will lead to around $27 million in reduced OpEx on an annual basis.

我們在投資的同時減少排放。最近，NCS 的斯萊普納 (Sleipner) 和古德倫 (Gudrun) 油田已接入岸電。我們每年減少 16 萬噸二氧化碳排放，這將導致每年減少約 2,700 萬美元的營運支出。

We recently announced high-grading of our U.S. onshore gas position through a transaction with EQT. We will swap our operatorship and interest in Ohio for non-operated interests in the Northern Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania with lower breakeven and lower emissions and also leading to increased production and profitability.

我們最近宣布透過與 EQT 的交易對我們的美國陸上天然氣頭寸進行高評級。我們將把我們在俄亥俄州的經營權和權益交換為賓夕法尼亞州北馬塞勒斯頁岩的非經營權益，從而降低盈虧平衡和排放量，同時提高產量和盈利能力。

Within renewables, we remain value focused and disciplined. As you have seen in the recent Norwegian offshore wind auction, Sørlige Nordsjø II. In that auction, we participated but we stopped at a bid level that would have created value. And we were okay not to win.

在再生能源領域，我們仍然注重價值並遵守紀律。正如您在最近的挪威離岸風電拍賣中所看到的，Sårlige Nordsjä II。在那次拍賣中，我們參與了，但我們停在了可以創造價值的出價水平。我們沒有獲勝也沒關係。

Value creation is and will be our top priority. 2024 is the year of derisking for Empire Wind 1 project in New York and we are progressing. After CMU, we were awarded a new offtake agreement with significantly better terms.

創造價值現在是、將來也將是我們的首要任務。 2024 年是紐約 Empire Wind 1 專案消除風險的一年，我們正在取得進展。在卡內基美隆大學之後，我們獲得了新的承購協議，條款明顯更好。

Next, we aim to take an investment decision and secure project financing later this year. And with a new contract and project financing, we expect a nominal equity return between 12% and 16% for our U.S. East Coast offshore wind portfolio.

接下來，我們的目標是在今年稍後做出投資決定並獲得專案融資。透過新的合約和專案融資，我們預計美國東海岸離岸風電投資組合的名目股本回報率將在 12% 至 16% 之間。

From there, we also aim to farm down and bring in a new partner, which will significantly reduce our CapEx. We continue with strong capital distribution, in line with what we communicated at our Capital Markets Update in February. For the quarter, the Board approved an ordinary cash dividend of $0.35 per share and an extraordinary dividend of $0.35 on top of that. As you know, we intend to grow the quarterly cash dividend by $0.02 on an annual basis.

從那時起，我們還旨在減少農場並引入新的合作夥伴，這將顯著減少我們的資本支出。我們將繼續進行強有力的資本分配，這與我們在二月的資本市場更新中傳達的內容一致。本季度，董事會批准每股 0.35 美元的普通現金股息，並在此基礎上支付 0.35 美元的特別股息。如您所知，我們打算將季度現金股息每年增加 0.02 美元。

In February, we also introduced a 2-year share buyback program to increase predictability. The program is $10 billion to $12 billion in total with $6 billion allocated for 2024. For the quarter and subject to AGM approval, we announced a second tranche of up to $1.6 billion in line with this program. This tranche will start following the AGM in May.

二月份，我們還推出了為期 2 年的股票回購計劃，以提高可預測性。該計劃總額為 100 億至 120 億美元，其中 60 億美元分配給 2024 年。該部分將於五月年度股東大會後開始。

For 2024, we then, therefore, expect to deliver a total capital distribution of $14 billion, as we have said earlier, and this translates into a yield of around 17%.

因此，正如我們之前所說，到 2024 年，我們預計將實現 140 億美元的總資本分配，相當於 17% 左右的收益率。

Turning to safety. In late February, we had a fatal helicopter accident and we lost a dear colleague and 5 people were injured. We are working closely with authorities, and we have an ongoing internal investigation with a focus on helicopter safety and emergency preparedness. So although we have had positive trend for safety performance, this is a very strong reminder to keep safety as our #1 priority.

轉向安全。 2月底，我們發生了一場致命的直升機事故，我們失去了一位親愛的同事，5人受傷。我們正在與當局密切合作，並正在進行內部調查，重點是直升機安全和緊急準備。因此，儘管我們在安全績效方面呈現出積極的趨勢，但這強烈提醒我們將安全作為我們的第一要務。

Production was strong in the quarter, in line with our expectations and growing by 2%. The share of liquids in production increased compared to the same quarter last year. Our NCS production is driven by strong production efficiency and increased capacity at Johan Sverdrup and ramp-up of Breidablikk, an asset we started last autumn.

本季產量強勁，符合我們的預期，成長了 2%。與去年同期相比，液體產品在生產中所佔的份額增加。我們的 NCS 生產是由 Johan Sverdrup 強大的生產效率和產能增加以及 Breidablikk（我們去年秋天啟動的一項資產）的擴大所推動的。

Internationally, production grew around 3%. That was driven by partner-operated Vito field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Buzzard in the U.K., and new wells in Angola. U.S. onshore gas production is somewhat down. And operators are now planning curtailment of production in a response to lower prices.

國際上，產量增加了 3% 左右。這是由合作夥伴營運的美國墨西哥灣 Vito 油田、英國 Buzzard 油田以及安哥拉新油井推動的。美國陸上天然氣產量下降。營運商現在正計劃減產以應對價格下跌。

So we have not included this in our production guidance, so that leads to a larger downside risk to our guiding. But the curtailment is done to create more value and prioritizing value over volume, and as you know, we are supporting this.

所以我們沒有將其納入我們的生產指引中，從而導致我們的指引面臨更大的下行風險。但削減是為了創造更多價值，並優先考慮價值而不是數量，正如你所知，我們支持這一點。

Power generation is up, and our renewables production is almost 50% higher than in the same quarter last year, mainly driven by the Rio Energy acquisition and the start-up of the 500-plus megawatt Mendubim solar plants in Brazil, where we own 30%. Offshore wind production is also increased in the quarter. But gas-to-power production from Triton was lower due to low spark spread.

發電量上升，我們的再生能源產量比去年同期增長了近 50%，這主要是由於收購 Rio Energy 以及巴西 500 多兆瓦的 Mendubim 太陽能發電廠的啟動，我們在巴西擁有 30 個太陽能發電廠% 。本季離岸風電產量也有所增加。但由於火花擴散較小，Triton 的天然氣發電產量較低。

So now let's turn to our financial results. Oil prices increased through the quarter, while gas prices were down by actually 50% from the same quarter last year.

現在讓我們來看看我們的財務表現。本季石油價格有所上漲，而天然氣價格卻比去年同期下降了 50%。

Strong production drove E&P Norway's results, delivering adjusted operating income of $5.8 billion and $1.3 billion after tax. Our international E&P segments delivered around $1 billion in adjusted operating income, and actually more than $800 million after tax, driven by production growth and that portfolio, which has been high graded over time.

強勁的生產推動了 E&P 挪威公司的業績，調整後營業收入為 58 億美元，稅後收入為 13 億美元。在產量成長和長期獲得高評級的投資組合的推動下，我們的國際勘探與生產部門實現了約 10 億美元的調整後營業收入，實際上稅後收入超過 8 億美元。

Then MMP, they have delivered within or above the increased guiding for the past 5 quarters. And this quarter, results came in above the range at $887 million. Strong liquids and LNG trading contributed to these results. Renewable energy assets in operation contributed with $46 million in the quarter.

然後是 MMP，他們在過去 5 個季度的成長指引範圍內或之上實現了目標。本季的業績達到 8.87 億美元，高於預期範圍。強勁的液體和液化天然氣貿易促成了這些結果。本季營運中的再生能源資產貢獻了 4,600 萬美元。

As we continue to build the renewables business, the adjusted operating income for the segment was negative as expected. Our OpEx and SG&A, that increased by 1%, while our production grew by almost 2%. However, we are not shielded from market effects, inflation and cost pressure. And because our accounts are in dollars and the Norwegian kroner remains weak, the impact is not easily seen in the accounts.

隨著我們繼續打造再生能源業務，該部門調整後的營業收入如預期為負。我們的營運支出和 SG&A 成長了 1%，而我們的產量增加了近 2%。然而，我們並不能免於市場影響、通貨膨脹和成本壓力的影響。由於我們的帳戶以美元計算，而挪威克朗仍然疲軟，因此在帳戶中不容易看到影響。

So there is an underlying growth in OpEx, and it is primarily driven by operation and maintenance, transportation costs, and increased activities within renewables and low-carbon solutions. We maintain a strong focus on cost control and prioritization, and we work closely with partners and suppliers on this.

因此，營運支出存在潛在成長，這主要是由營運和維護、運輸成本以及再生能源和低碳解決方案中活動的增加所推動的。我們高度重視成本控制和優先級，並為此與合作夥伴和供應商密切合作。

So over to our cash flow. This quarter, we have solid cash flow from operations of $5.8 billion after tax. We made one NCS tax installment of around $3.5 billion. Next quarter, we will pay the two final installments based on the 2023 earnings totaling around $75 billion. So higher tax payments in the second quarter than in the first quarter.

那我們的現金流。本季，我們的稅後營運現金流量穩定，達 58 億美元。我們繳納了一筆約 35 億美元的 NCS 稅金。下個季度，我們將根據 2023 年總計約 750 億美元的收益支付最後兩期付款。因此，第二季的納稅額高於第一季。

At the Capital Markets update, we were expecting our cash flow from operations this year of around $17.5 billion after tax. Now and based on forward prices and including interest elements, we still expect to deliver around this level. And although gas prices are around $4 per MBtu lower than our CMU assumptions, but also oil prices are higher than we assumed.

在資本市場更新中，我們預計今年的營運現金流量約為稅後 175 億美元。現在，根據遠期價格並包括利息因素，我們仍然預計交付圍繞著這個水準。儘管天然氣價格比我們的 CMU 假設低 4 美元/MBtu 左右，但石油價格也比我們假設的要高。

Next year, we expect to be back to delivering around $20 billion in cash flow from operations after tax. You may also want to note that our sensitivity towards changes in gas prices is dampened by the Norwegian tax system. As a general rule of thumb and disregarding the tax lag, a $4 change in the gas price equals around $1.5 billion change in cash flow from operations after tax.

明年，我們預計稅後營運現金流將恢復到約 200 億美元。您可能還想指出，挪威的稅收制度削弱了我們對天然氣價格變化的敏感度。根據一般經驗法則，不考慮稅收滯後，天然氣價格變動 4 美元相當於稅後營運現金流變化約 15 億美元。

In the quarter, we spent $3.2 billion in cash dividends and share buybacks executed in the market. The state's share of buybacks will be paid in July impacting our third quarter cash flow. Our organic CapEx for the quarter was $2.8 billion.

本季度，我們花了 32 億美元用於現金股利和在市場上執行的股票回購。州政府的回購份額將於 7 月支付，這將影響我們第三季的現金流。本季我們的有機資本支出為 28 億美元。

In addition to all of this, working capital decreased by $3.2 billion and this is mainly due to lower gas prices and lower third-party and equity crude volumes at the end of the first quarter. After taxes, capital distribution and investments on net cash flow came in marginally positive at $8 million.

除此之外，營運資金減少了 32 億美元，這主要是由於第一季末天然氣價格下降以及第三方和股權原油銷售下降。稅後，資本分配和投資的淨現金流量略為正數，為 800 萬美元。

So we have a solid financial position with more than $37 billion in cash and cash equivalents and a net debt to capital employed of negative 20%. As we said at the Capital Markets Day in February, we expect the net debt to become positive by the end of this year, and this still remains the case.

因此，我們擁有穩健的財務狀況，擁有超過 370 億美元的現金和現金等價物，淨負債與已用資本比率為負 20%。正如我們在二月的資本市場日上所說，我們預計到今年年底淨債務將變為正數，而且情況仍然如此。

So lastly, since February, our guiding remains unchanged. But as I mentioned, there is uncertainty related to commercial curtailment of gas within U.S. onshore.

最後，自二月以來，我們的指導方針保持不變。但正如我所提到的，美國陸上天然氣的商業削減存在不確定性。

So with that, I hand it back to you, BÃ¥rd, and I do look forward to your questions.

因此，我將其交還給您，巴德，我非常期待您的提問。

Thank you, Torgrim. We are then ready to start the Q&A. And I see we have a good list already. (Operator Instructions) We'll then start. And first on the list was Biraj Borkhataria from RBC. So please, Biraj, go ahead.

謝謝你，托格瑞姆。然後我們準備開始問答。我發現我們已經有了一份很好的清單。 （操作員指示）然後我們就開始。名單上的第一位是來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。所以，比拉吉，請繼續。

I've got 2, please. The first one is on MMP and obviously, another strong result this quarter. I was wondering if you could just help dissect the drivers and give a bit more color on the trading front because the volatility is obviously still high. But relative to the last couple of years, it's lower. So I'm just wondering is this Equinor taking on more risk than before? Or is there something else driving it? Just trying to understand the sustainability of these results.

我有2個，拜託。第一個是 MMP，顯然，這是本季的另一個強勁結果。我想知道您是否可以幫助剖析驅動因素並在交易方面提供更多信息，因為波動性顯然仍然很高。但相對於過去幾年，這個數字較低。所以我只是想知道 Equinor 是否比以前承擔了更多的風險？還是有其他東西在驅動它？只是想了解這些結果的可持續性。

And then the second question is on Johan Sverdrup. There's some expectation that, that field will come off plateau either later this year or early next year. Is it possible to give some color on what the next 2 to 3 years will look like for the field? Should we expect a relatively steady decline post plateau? Or do we have a decline and reach another lower level of plateau or something else? So any incremental information will be helpful there.

第二個問題是關於約翰·斯維爾德魯普（Johan Sverdrup）的。有人預計，該領域將在今年稍後或明年初擺脫困境。是否有可能對該領域未來 2 到 3 年的情況進行一些描述？我們是否應該預期平台期後會出現相對穩定的下降？或者我們會出現下降並達到另一個較低水平的平台或其他什麼？因此，任何增量資訊都會有所幫助。

Okay. Thank you very much, Biraj, 2 important questions. So first on MMP. Yes. So let me try to sort of give you a little bit more insight into that. Traditionally, it is sort of the gas trading that has sort of been the largest contributor to that result. Still, gas and power is delivering well with above $500 million in earnings.

好的。非常感謝你，Biraj，有兩個重要問題。首先是MMP。是的。因此，讓我嘗試讓您對此有更多的了解。傳統上，天然氣交易是這項結果的最大貢獻者。儘管如此，天然氣和電力產業仍表現良好，獲利超過 5 億美元。

Crude is almost at the same level and they normally are not. They are normally or historically at least, at a lower level. But what we see is that with the Russian oil going to Asia, that creates a good opportunity for our portfolio and our assets. So that enables us to take advantage of the qualities that we have in our portfolio. It gives us opportunities to trade in the time dimension and it gives us opportunities to trade geographies as well. So those are the 3 elements that drives it.

原油價格幾乎處於同一水平，但通常情況並非如此。它們通常或至少在歷史上處於較低水平。但我們看到的是，隨著俄羅斯石油流向亞洲，這為我們的投資組合和資產創造了良好的機會。因此，這使我們能夠利用我們產品組合中所擁有的品質。它為我們提供了在時間維度上進行交易的機會，也為我們提供了在地理位置上進行交易的機會。這就是驅動它的三個要素。

It's driven by the assets that we have with certain qualities. It is a flexible, large shipping fleet, and it is a trading organization that trades 24/7 around the clock and global books. So that has sort of proved to deliver well.

它是由我們擁有的具有一定品質的資產所驅動的。它是一個靈活的、大型的運輸船隊，它是一個24/7全天候進行全球書籍交易的貿易組織。事實證明，這種做法效果很好。

On the gas side, I would say, is still a good result. But volatility within natural gas and also the geographical arbitrage opportunities within gas are sort of less than it has been over the last few years, but still they continue to deliver well.

我想說，在天然氣方面，仍然是一個不錯的結果。但天然氣的波動性以及天然氣的地理套利機會比過去幾年有所減少，但它們仍然繼續表現良好。

On your question whether we take more risk, well, not really, this is asset-backed trading and sort of the spec book or the -- is very, very limited as such. So this is based on the underlying portfolio and assets and the flows.

關於我們是否承擔更多風險的問題，嗯，不是真的，這是資產支持交易，是一種規格書，或者是非常非常有限的。因此，這是基於基礎投資組合、資產和流量。

On your second question, Johan Sverdrup, yes. So what we have said is that we expect Johan Sverdrup to come off plateau towards the end of this year or early next year. I think it's important to remind ourselves that we have accelerated production on Johan Sverdrup significantly over the last years. And as you remember, in April, we sort of qualified 750,000 barrels per day in capacity.

關於你的第二個問題，約翰‧斯維德魯普，是的。因此，我們所說的是，我們預計約翰·斯維德魯普 (Johan Sverdrup) 將在今年年底或明年初擺脫困境。我認為重要的是要提醒自己，過去幾年我們大幅加快了 Johan Sverdrup 的生產速度。正如您所記得的，四月份，我們每天的合格產能約為 750,000 桶。

Then I really would like to leave with you that Johan Sverdrup is designed and built for massive water handling with a very, very large water handling capacity. So what we see is exactly what we should expect.

那我真的很想告訴大家，Johan Sverdrup 是為大規模水處理而設計和製造的，具有非常非常大的水處理能力。所以我們所看到的正是我們應該期待的。

Out of curiosity, we actually plan to flush the reservoir several times with water during the lifetime of Johan Sverdrup to improve and increase regularity, not regularity, but the recovery of the life, we'll say, so as you would understand. Water management is a very, very integrated part of the value of the assets.

出於好奇，我們實際上計劃在約翰·斯維德魯普（Johan Sverdrup）的一生中用水多次沖洗水庫，以改善和增加規律性，我們會說，不是規律性，而是生命的恢復，以便您理解。水管理是資產價值的一個非常非常重要的組成部分。

So you see -- you have seen over the last few months, a little bit of increasing water cut in the wells, that is as expected. And that would continue to, over time, increase as you would understand. So the way to sort of work with the clients is to drill new wells. It is to optimize production and water management, and it's also about future phases like Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 as such.

所以你看，在過去的幾個月裡，你看到井中的含水量增加，這是預期的。正如你所理解的，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會繼續增加。因此，與客戶合作的方式就是鑽新井。這是為了優化生產和水資源管理，也與 Johan Sverdrup 第三期等未來階段有關。

So on that note, we have put in one new well recently. There are two wells ongoing. And when those are done, there are more wells to be drilled as well in that reservoir.

因此，在這一點上，我們最近打了一口新井。有兩口井正在進行中。當這些完成後，該儲層中還會鑽更多的井。

Yes, Johan Sverdrup Phase 3 might be of interest. That is a tool to manage the client. And that is underway, and we expect that to start up in maybe late '27 and then -- or '28 as such. I mean, it is progressing. So this is -- I'm giving you a very long answer, Biraj. But this is, of course, very important for us. And this is at the core of the components of the company to manage the client and optimize the recovery rate. So thanks, Biraj.

是的，Johan Sverdrup 第三階段可能會令人感興趣。這是一個管理客戶的工具。這一切正在進行中，我們預計這可能會在 27 年末開始，然後 - 或 28 年開始。我的意思是，它正在進步。所以這就是──比拉吉，我給你一個很長的答案。但這對我們來說當然非常重要。這是公司管理客戶和優化恢復率的核心組成部分。謝謝，比拉吉。

Thanks, Biraj. Next on my list is Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank 1 Markets. So Teodor, please go ahead.

謝謝，比拉傑。我名單上的下一個是 Sparebank 1 Markets 的 Teodor Sveen-Nilsen。特奧多，請繼續。

Two questions from me. I just want to follow up on Johan Sverdrup. I understand that this is a complicated field and complicated operations you currently are carrying out. But I just wonder for 2025, and we know that the field is coming off plateau now. What should we model in terms of value production next year? Will it be 5%, 10% or 15% below the Q1 2024 production, any like kind of thoughts or guesses around that would be useful.

我有兩個問題。我只想跟進 Johan Sverdrup 的情況。我知道這是一個複雜的領域，你目前正在進行的操作也很複雜。但我只是想知道 2025 年的情況，我們知道這個領域現在正在走出平穩期。明年我們應該為價值生產建立什麼樣的模式？是否會比 2024 年第一季的產量低 5%、10% 或 15%，任何類似的想法或猜測都會有用。

Second question is on the gas market and the gas value chain. I just wonder, in the long term, do you plan to take any additional positions in the value chain for LNG from U.S. to Europe? Or are you happy with your current position?

第二個問題是關於天然氣市場和天然氣價值鏈。我只是想知道，從長遠來看，你們是否計劃在從美國到歐洲的液化天然氣價值鏈中佔據任何額外的位置？或是你對目前的職位滿意嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Teodor. Yes, so on the -- on Johan Sverdrup, yes, it is a complicated field. But clearly also with a very, very significant potential for recovery and we have sort of assumed a 70% recovery rate on that asset. So the flow characteristics are very good. We are not ready to give you a rate that you can use for your calculations. But as sort of the field is coming off plateau and it will come off plateau, clearly, we will help guiding you all on that development. I think it's very important for me to say that the production guiding that we have put forward for this year, next year, the 5% growth in production towards 2026 takes into account decline on Johan Sverdrup. And the development of Johan Sverdrup is exactly what we expect and have forecasted in our communication.

好的。謝謝，特奧多。是的，關於約翰·斯維爾德魯普（Johan Sverdrup），是的，這是一個複雜的領域。但顯然也具有非常非常巨大的回收潛力，我們假設該資產的回收率為 70%。因此流動特性非常好。我們尚未準備好為您提供可用於計算的匯率。但是，隨著某些領域正在走出穩定狀態，並且它將會擺脫穩定狀態，顯然，我們將幫助指導大家實現這一發展。我認為對我來說非常重要的是，我們為今年、明年提出的生產指導，到 2026 年產量增加 5% 考慮到了 Johan Sverdrup 的下降。而 Johan Sverdrup 的發展也正是我們在溝通上所期待和預測的。

Yes, then on the gas markets. Yes. So clearly, the European gas market has been through a few very, very turbulent years and sort of there is a new reality surfacing in the market. The European gas market has moved from being priced based on pipe gas to becoming an LNG priced market. So our long-term expectation for price in Europe is based on actually competition for LNG between Asia and Europe. And we expect that to be around $10 per BTU in the long term.

是的，然後是天然氣市場。是的。顯然，歐洲天然氣市場已經經歷了非常非常動盪的幾年，市場上出現了一個新的現實。歐洲天然氣市場已從基於管道天然氣定價轉變為液化天然氣定價市場。因此，我們對歐洲價格的長期預期是基於亞洲和歐洲之間液化天然氣的實際競爭。從長遠來看，我們預計該價格約為每 BTU 10 美元。

So I would say, indirectly, we have actually a very, very large exposure to LNG pricing to the piped gas position in Europe. So we already have that. I mean, we also have a couple of third-party contracts, with Cheniere in the U.S. So I mean, it's there and then -- but we have no sort of plans to build a significant LNG business beyond what we have currently.

所以我想說，間接地，我們實際上對歐洲管道天然氣地位的液化天然氣定價有非常大的曝險。所以我們已經有了。我的意思是，我們還與美國的 Cheniere 簽訂了幾份第三方合約。 所以我的意思是，它就在那裡 - 但我們沒有任何計劃來建立超出我們目前的重要液化天然氣業務。

Okay. That's clear. Can I just follow up most for your 2026 guidance of 5% growth. How much Sverdrup decline had this factor into that estimate?

好的。很清楚。我可以跟進你們 2026 年 5% 成長的指導嗎？該估計中考慮了這個因素，斯維爾德魯普下降了多少？

Thanks, Teodor. That's actually the exact same question as you asked. So I can't give you a different answer, then we'll have to keep the dialogue going on that. It is developing as expected and clearly it boils down to our ability to manage water, to drill new wells, and optimize the reservoir and production characteristics.

謝謝，特奧多。這其實與你問的問題完全相同。所以我無法給你不同的答案，那麼我們就必須繼續就此進行對話。它正在按預期發展，顯然這取決於我們管理水、鑽新井以及優化油藏和生產特徵的能力。

Thank you, Teodor. The next one is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley. So Martijn?

謝謝你，特奧多。下一位是來自摩根士丹利的Martijn Rats。那麼馬丁?

I have 2 as well. There was a Bloomberg headline this morning that says that Equinor sees additional risk to oil projects in the U.K. North Sea from the labor government if the labor government were to come in. And I was wondering if you could provide some color sort of behind that comment, what are sort of the risks that, that you would see if that were to happen, that would be helpful.

我也有2個。今天早上彭博社的頭條新聞稱，如果工黨政府介入，Equinor 認為工黨政府將給英國北海的石油項目帶來額外的風險。種情況，您會看到，這會有所幫助。

And just very briefly to follow up on sort of Biraj's question on MMP. I fully understand the comment about, so gas is still good as per normal, but then oil was a bit of an upward surprise in terms of the trading results for this quarter, partly because of the diversion of the Russian cargoes to Asia. But Russian cargoes being diverted to Asia that started already sort of back in 2022. Is there something -- like why this is now surprising to the upside? Could -- could you have said the same thing over the last couple of quarters. Is there something sort of changed from that perspective?

非常簡短地跟進 Biraj 關於 MMP 的問題。我完全理解這樣的評論，因此天然氣仍然像往常一樣良好，但就本季的交易結果而言，石油有點意外上升，部分原因是俄羅斯貨物轉移到亞洲。但俄羅斯貨物從 2022 年就開始轉移到亞洲。你可以在過去幾季說過同樣的話嗎？從這個角度來看，有什麼改變嗎？

Okay. No. Thanks, Martijn. So on your first question related to U.K., first of all, as an industry, we are very dependent on stable and predictable framework conditions and tax systems as well. And sort of when labor is putting forward potential changes, that creates uncertainties. And that is something that we need to take into sort of our risk management and the way we think about capital allocation in the portfolio. And the U.K. is a very important country for us, and it will remain so. But we will also be very diligent in sort of that there needs to be a good link between risk and return as such. So predictability, very, very key, and that is what Anders spoke to Bloomberg about this morning.

好的。不，謝謝，馬丁。因此，關於你與英國相關的第一個問題，首先，作為一個產業，我們也非常依賴穩定且可預測的框架條件和稅收制度。當工黨提出潛在的變革時，就會產生不確定性。這是我們需要將其納入風險管理以及我​​們考慮投資組合資本配置的方式中的事情。英國對我們來說是一個非常重要的國家，而且將來也會如此。但我們也會非常努力，確保風險和回報之間需要建立良好的連結。因此，可預測性非常非常關鍵，這就是安德斯今天早上向彭博社談論的內容。

On your second question on MMP and oil trading and all gas, the results related to our oil trading, portfolio of producing assets and the quality differences and -- or shipping fleet and trading organization gives this opportunity. It will -- opportunities will arise between quarters. And even if there is a good asset base to take advantage of it, the results will go up and down on the oil side as well. But what we clearly see is that, that what we have is actually a flexible set of assets that enables us to take opportunities of arbitrage situations when they occur.

關於 MMP 和石油貿易以及所有天然氣的第二個問題，與我們的石油貿易、生產資產組合和品質差異以及運輸船隊和貿易組織相關的結果提供了這個機會。機會將會在季度之間出現。即使有良好的資產基礎可以利用，石油方面的結果也會上下波動。但我們清楚地看到，我們擁有的實際上是一組靈活的資產，使我們能夠在套利情況發生時抓住機會。

Thank you. Next on the list is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Michele, please the microphone is open.

謝謝。名單上的下一個是高盛的米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞(Michele Della Vigna)。米歇爾，請打開麥克風。

Congratulations, Torgrim, on the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on the operating working capital release, very impressive in this quarter, around $3 billion. I was wondering if you could shed a bit of light, especially on how much do you think this can be structural or how much it may reverse into the coming quarters?

祝賀托格瑞姆取得了優異的成績。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是營運資本釋放，本季非常令人印象深刻，約 30 億美元。我想知道您是否可以透露一些信息，特別是您認為這在多大程度上可能是結構性的，或者在未來幾個季度可能會逆轉多少？

And then secondly, you've given a very good layout of how you're thinking about Empire Wind and the pricing you got there and the move towards FID and project financing. But I was wondering, do you think we could get to farm out this year and therefore the deconsolidation of about $1.5 billion of capital or maybe that could come later and so going to 2025?

其次，您很好地闡述了您對 Empire Wind 的看法、您獲得的定價以及 FID 和專案融資的進展。但我想知道，您認為我們今年可以進行外包，從而剝離約 15 億美元的資本，或者可能會在稍後進行，直到 2025 年？

Thanks, Michele. Very good. So first one on the working capital reduction. So in the quarter, the reduction was $3.2 billion. And currently, our working capital level in absolute terms is around $5.5 billion. So this comes on the back of lower gas prices. It comes from lower third-party volumes in sort of -- when it comes to oil and liquids and lower volumes sold in March compared to December. So that's sort of the drivers behind it. And then, sort of on your question, is this structural or not? Well, it will varies over quarters, and it's typically driven by volumes is driven by absolute price and it is also driven by volatility.

謝謝，米歇爾。非常好。第一個是關於減少營運資本。因此本季減少了 32 億美元。目前，我們的營運資本水準絕對值約為 55 億美元。所以這是在天然氣價格下降的背景下發生的。這是因為第三方石油和液體產品的銷量有所下降，以及 3 月的銷量較 12 月有所下降。這就是背後的驅動因素。然後，關於你的問題，這是結構性的還是非結構性的？嗯，它會隨著季度的變化而變化，並且通常由交易量驅動，由絕對價格驅動，也由波動性驅動。

And you might remember during 2022 with very high gas prices and rather extreme volatility, we had at one point in time, $10 billion in collaterals in the balance sheet. That's, of course, not the case anymore. So I would say that the current working capital is sort of a fair reflection on current portfolio, current prices, and current volatility, but we must be prepared that it goes up and down on a quarterly basis going forward.

您可能還記得，2022 年天然氣價格非常高，波動性相當大，我們的資產負債表中曾經一度有 100 億美元的抵押品。當然，現在情況不再是這樣了。因此，我想說，當前的營運資本在某種程度上公平地反映了當前的投資組合、當前的價格和當前的波動性，但我們必須做好準備，它將在未來按季度上下波動。

Yes. And then the second one was Empire Wind, yes. So very glad to have received the new contract with the state of New York. The price that we have in our contract has not been revealed, but the average of 2 contracts is [$150.5]. when sort of the contract is finally signed, we will sort of be able to communicate a specific price. I'm looking forward to that.

是的。然後第二個是帝國風，是的。非常高興收到與紐約州的新合約。我們合約中的價格尚未透露，但 2 份合約的平均價格是 [150.5 美元]。當合約最終簽署時，我們將能夠傳達具體的價格。我很期待這一點。

The old contract was $118 per megawatt hour. So as you understand, this was a significant step-up and it significantly changed the economics of the project.

舊合約為每兆瓦時 118 美元。正如您所理解的，這是一個重大的進步，它極大地改變了專案的經濟效益。

Then when it comes to final investment decision, that is progressing. All contracts are settled for practical purposes. There are very little exposure to inflation left in the procurement. And we have Vesta delivering 15 gigawatts turbines, we are sort of from ASA -- it's a plain Manila compared to -- it's not plain Manila wrong word, but it's a proven technology compared to the others have been planning for. So we feel confident in the delivery of that.

然後當涉及到最終的投資決策時，一切都在取得進展。所有合約都是出於實際目的而確定的。購買中剩下的通膨風險已經很小了。我們有Vesta 提供15 吉瓦渦輪機，我們有點來自ASA——相比之下，這是一個普通的馬尼拉——這不是一個普通的馬尼拉錯誤的詞，但與其他人一直在計劃的相比，這是一項經過驗證的技術。因此，我們對實現這一目標充滿信心。

Then the financing package will be put in place and then it will be farmed on. And actually, this asset will be farmed down for the second time, as you would remember. So when this is derisked, financed, there is a broad set of potential interested party in this asset and we will get on with that as soon as we can. I don't have a specific date for you, but clearly, it is very important for us to have it derisked and farmed down as soon as we practically can. So thanks.

然後融資方案將到位，然後進行種植。實際上，正如您所記得的那樣，該資產將第二次被開採。因此，當該資產消除風險並獲得融資後，該資產將有廣泛的潛在利益相關方，我們將盡快著手處理。我沒有給你具體的日期，但顯然，對我們來說，盡快消除它的風險並進行種植是非常重要的。那謝謝啦。

Thanks, Michele. Next question is Kim Fustier from HSBC. Kim?

謝謝，米歇爾。下一個問題是來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。金？

The first one is just a quick one, a housekeeping question on the EQT deal in the U.S. Could you quantify the positive impact on production? And maybe more broadly, what should we read into your decision to no longer operate anything in the U.S. onshore? Are there any other areas around the world where you'd like to relinquish operatorship?

第一個問題只是一個簡單的問題，是關於美國 EQT 交易的內務問題。也許更廣泛地說，我們應該如何解讀您不再在美國境內經營任何業務的決定？世界上還有其他地區您想放棄營運權嗎？

And then my second question is on gas-fired power. You've got the Triton power station in the U.K., but you're also building out renewables positions elsewhere. So are there maybe other countries where you think you might need to buy gas-fired power generation capacity in the future?

我的第二個問題是關於瓦斯發電的。你們在英國擁有 Triton 發電站，但你們也在其他地方建立再生能源基地。那麼您認為未來是否還有其他國家可能需要購買瓦斯發電能力？

Okay. Thanks, Kim. Very good. So first on the EQT transaction, on production side, it typically will add around 15,000 barrels per day in increased production. And as I mentioned, lower breakeven, lower emissions and better returns. This was sort of the last piece of operated activities within U.S. onshore activity. And it was a small operations where we lacked scale and we have come to the conclusion that we don't see ourselves as a future operator within U.S. onshore activities. And we instead want to prioritize working with the best operators around and within the gas portfolio, that is not the case. So this is sort of another example of high-grading the international E&P portfolio. And building size and scale in certain areas where we do operate and where we can take advantage of that.

好的。謝謝，金。非常好。因此，首先在 EQT 交易中，在產量方面，通常會增加每天約 15,000 桶的產量。正如我所提到的，更低的損益平衡、更低的排放和更好的回報。這是美國陸上活動中最後一項營運活動。這是一個小型業務，我們缺乏規模，我們得出的結論是，我們不認為自己是美國陸上活動的未來營運商。相反，我們希望優先與天然氣投資組合內最好的營運商合作，但事實並非如此。因此，這是國際勘探與生產投資組合進行高評級的另一個例子。在我們經營的某些領域以及我們可以利用的領域建立規模和規模。

On your second question around CCGTs. CCGTs are a natural sort of an important part of an energy system with an increasing share of renewable and interruptible power in it. And it creates a good link between the natural gas and renewables. And we do see natural gas to be a very important part of the long term here.

關於你關於 CCGT 的第二個問題。 CCGT 自然是能源系統的重要組成部分，其中可再生和可中斷電力的份額不斷增加。它在天然氣和再生能源之間建立了良好的聯繫。我們確實認為天然氣是長期的一個非常重要的組成部分。

What we typically will consider our CCGTs that can be ready for either capture or hydrogen-ready. And as an example, we have an MoU with RWE related to 5 hydrogen-ready CCGTs in Germany, a landing point for a significant part of our natural gas to Europe. So it is an integrated part of the way we think about the future markets.

我們通常會認為我們的 CCGT 可以為捕獲做好準備，也可以為氫氣做好準備。舉例來說，我們與 RWE 簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，涉及德國 5 台可用於氫氣的 CCGT，這是我們向歐洲輸送大部分天然氣的著陸點。因此，它是我們思考未來市場方式的一個組成部分。

Thank you. The next question is Yoann Charenton from Bernstein.

謝謝。下一個問題是來自伯恩斯坦的 Yoann Charenton。

I would like to ask about Johan Sverdrup again, if you don't mind. You have said that you have very significant water handling capacity at the field and you confirm as well that the production trend is in line with your expectations. At the same time, your largest partner in the field said yesterday that this year's activity program will involve the drilling of 10 production wells instead of 8 as stated earlier this year. So for production to continue to trend in line with expectation, are you ready to drill more well this year, and can you explain why as well you are adding 2 wells to this year's program?

如果您不介意的話，我想再次詢問有關約翰·斯維德魯普的問題。您曾說過，您在該領域擁有非常強大的水處理能力，您也確認生產趨勢符合您的預期。同時，你們在該領域最大的合作夥伴昨天表示，今年的活動計畫將涉及鑽探10口生產井，而不是今年稍早所說的8口。因此，為了讓產量繼續符合預期趨勢，您今年準備好鑽探更多井了嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Yoann. Yes, you're right. So drilling of new wells will be a key element of optimizing the production profile on Johan Sverdrup. So they are currently two wells ongoing, and there are more to come. I think we have said by end of second quarter up to 5 wells. So there are more wells being started and progressed during this quarter as said, and then we will continue with that during the rest of the year.

好的。謝謝，約安。你是對的。因此，鑽探新井將成為優化 Johan Sverdrup 生產狀況的關鍵因素。因此，他們目前正在進行兩口井，並且還會有更多井。我想我們已經說過，到第二季末將增至 5 口井。因此，如上所述，本季度有更多的油井啟動和進展，然後我們將在今年剩餘時間內繼續這樣做。

So this is -- there's no magic in this. This is hard work, good planning and optimizing the field. And as we produce and as we drill, we learn more and more about the reservoir and the placing of the wells. And everything that we see is very good and in line with what we have seen and expected since the start of the field. So -- but clearly, I mean, we will give you an update as we drill and as we progress and as we report.

這就是──這並沒有什麼魔力。這是一個艱苦的工作、良好的規劃和優化領域。當我們生產和鑽探時，我們對油藏和油井的位置了解得越來越多。我們看到的一切都非常好，符合我們自該領域開始以來所看到和期望的。所以，但很明顯，我的意思是，我們將在鑽探、進展和報告時向您提供最新情況。

Thank you, Yoann. The next question is Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.

謝謝你，約安。下一個問題是法國巴黎銀行的保羅·雷德曼（Paul Redman）。

I've just got 2 quick questions. You mentioned a couple of times the curtailment impact and the fact that that's not in your guidance for production, any idea of kind of what the impact of curtailment would be and the conversations you've had with EQT, kind of how likely this would be? And then the second one, is just a more general question. Just you've got some big projects coming online over the next couple of years, any updates on progress on Johan Castberg and on Bacalhau?

我有兩個簡單的問題。您多次提到了削減影響，事實上這並不在您的生產指南中，您對削減影響的任何想法以及您與 EQT 的對話，以及這種影響的可能性有多大？第二個問題只是一個更普遍的問題。未來幾年，一些大型項目將上線，Johan Castberg 和 Bacalhau 的進展有什麼更新嗎？

Thanks, Paul. Very good. Yes. So gas prices in the U.S. are on a rather low levels. And we see that the way our operators there are typically working is that they sort of hedge the gas price for a certain amount of time. So -- but gas prices have remained low for quite a while, so those hedges are coming off. And that sort of discovers a sort of a true exposure to underlying gas prices. So what they say, and this is Chesapeake and EQT in particular, is that they will adjust activity to optimize for value. And Chesapeake has said they're going to reduce by 1 rig. And then, of course, they have an inventory of wells that can be completed. They also say they're going to adjust that.

謝謝，保羅。非常好。是的。因此，美國的天然氣價格處於相當低的水平。我們看到，我們的營運商通常的工作方式是，他們在一定時間內對沖天然氣價格。但天然氣價格在相當長一段時間內一直保持在低位，因此這些對沖正在消失。這就發現了某種對潛在天然氣價格的真實敞口。所以他們所說的，尤其是切薩皮克和殷拓，他們將調整活動以優化價值。切薩皮克表示他們將減少 1 台鑽孔機。當然，他們還有可以完成的油井庫存。他們也表示將對此進行調整。

Then beyond that, I mean, there are also opportunities to choke production as such, which is also on opportunities across these operators. So I will leave it to them to be specific on the impact of this. So I just encourage you to follow EQT and Chesapeake's communication around this to and then try to find a readout on the impact on our portfolio. It is still too early to -- for us to have a specific number for you. We just wanted to be ahead of the game, so you are aware of it.

除此之外，我的意思是，還有機會抑制生產本身，這也取決於這些業者的機會。因此，我將讓他們具體說明這項影響。因此，我只是鼓勵您專注於殷拓和切薩皮克圍繞此事的溝通，然後嘗試找到有關對我們投資組合影響的解釋。現在為您提供具體數字還為時過早。我們只是想在遊戲中保持領先，所以你也知道這一點。

I think it's important for me to say that we clearly support this. And secondly, these are barrels with low earnings impact, because of the gas prices is low, and they will come back at a higher price and with higher earnings as such. And that's, of course, something I do appreciate.

我認為對我來說重要的是我們明確支持這一點。其次，由於天然氣價格較低，這些桶子對收益的影響較小，因此它們將以更高的價格回歸並帶來更高的收益。當然，這也是我所欣賞的。

On your second question, the big projects, yes. So let us take Johan Castberg, Barents development. It now sits in the yard of Stord on the West Coast of Norway. And we do plan a sail away very soon. All the sort of offshore work is done and quite a bit of commission is finished. So the risk in sort of completing that asset, has come down quite a bit during the quarter. As you would remember, there was quite a bit of carryover work from Asia when taking this to Norway, driven by COVID and that period as such. So I mean, it has been some challenges, but that is now considered to be handled in a good way.

關於你的第二個問題，大項目，是的。讓我們以巴倫支海開發區的 Johan Castberg 為例。它現在坐落在挪威西海岸斯托德的院子裡。我們確實計劃很快啟航。所有類型的離岸工作都已完成，相當一部分委託也已完成。因此，完成該資產的風險在本季已經下降了很多。正如你所記得的，在新冠疫情和那個時期的推動下，當把這個帶到挪威時，有相當多的來自亞洲的遺留工作。所以我的意思是，這是一些挑戰，但現在被認為已經得到了很好的處理。

On Bacalhau, so Bacalhau came out of the yard in China and now sits in Singapore. It came there last summer. Also here, work is progressing well, and we expect first oil next year. So this is progressing well. I think, it is worth mentioning that clearly, in Brazil, there are inflationary pressures as such that we monitor very closely and are prepared for managing as such. So those are sort of the 2 big ones that are under construction. And then we have Rosebank, as you know. We have a Rio in Brazil as well coming and then Sparta operated by Shell in Gulf of Mexico. Those are sort of the big ones underway.

關於馬介休，馬介休從中國的院子出來，現在坐在新加坡。去年夏天它來到了那裡。同樣在這裡，工作進展順利，我們預計明年將首次產油。所以這一切進展順利。我認為，值得一提的是，巴西顯然存在通膨壓力，我們非常密切地監測並準備好進行管理。這些是正在建設中的兩個大型項目。如您所知，我們還有羅斯班克。我們還將在巴西開設裡約熱內盧，然後在墨西哥灣由殼牌經營斯巴達。這些都是正在進行中的重大項目。

Thank you, Paul. The next question is Henri Patricot from UBS.

謝謝你，保羅。下一個問題是來自瑞銀集團的亨利·帕特里克。

Just one question, please, on the European gas market. Could you perhaps share some of your views on how you see the balance of risk to European gas prices for the rest of the year and what you're seeing in terms of demand recovery at this point?

請教一個關於歐洲天然氣市場的問題。您能否分享一下您對今年剩餘時間歐洲天然氣價格風險平衡的看法以及您目前對需求復甦的看法？

Thank you very much, Henri. Yes, I mean, we have come to a very warm winter. And the gas prices has come down. Now it sort of stabilizing a little bit. But clearly, it is a market that is colored by the temperature and is also colored by the high level of inventory. So 59% was sort of in April, which is very high if you compare it to the 5-year average. I think, still there are some -- we can talk about a few things. Maybe we can talk about sort of European demand first. I mean, clearly, we see that is down. We see industrial demand is around 15% below the 5-year average now.

非常感謝你，亨利。是的，我的意思是，我們已經來到了一個非常溫暖的冬天。天然氣價格已經下降。現在它有點穩定了。但顯然，這是一個因氣溫和高庫存而著色的市場。因此，4 月的比例約為 59%，如果與 5 年平均值相比，這個比例非常高。我認為，仍然有一些——我們可以討論一些事情。也許我們可以先談談歐洲的需求。我的意思是，很明顯，我們看到它正在下降。我們認為目前工業需求比 5 年平均低 15% 左右。

And then -- but then we see some positives, because if you adjust for temperature, we see actually a 5% to 10% increase in demand over the last year, both industrial and sort of commercial assets. So my point is sort of the European demand picture is quite a bit impacted by temperature as such. Then beyond that, China is particularly an area to follow. And Chinese -- the Chinese gas market has passed Europe market in size, meaning that actually demand growth in China is more important for European gas prices than European demand. So watch out. And we see that is sort of taking efforts.

然後，我們看到了一些積極的因素，因為如果根據氣溫進行調整，我們會發現工業和商業資產的需求實際上比去年增長了 5% 到 10%。所以我的觀點是，歐洲的需求狀況在很大程度上受到溫度本身的影響。除此之外，中國尤其值得關注。而中國—中國天然氣市場的規模已超過歐洲市場，這意味著中國需求的成長實際上對歐洲天然氣價格的影響比歐洲需求更重要。所以小心。我們看到這需要付出努力。

And then there are a couple of other things to watch. One is sort of the sanctioning of Russian LNG and also the Russian gas coming through Ukraine, that's around 12 Bcm. The gas coming through Ukraine. That contract is sort of ending by year-end. And there were some solid remarks from Ukrainians that this is it. So I think those are elements to watch in addition to operational disruptions either in LNG chain or in pipe gas operations. So my point is it's sort of -- we are now entering spring and summer with solid gas storages. There are some underlying growth in demand in Europe and China. And small changes can have significant impact on price. That is still the case.

還有其他一些事情值得關注。其中之一是對俄羅斯液化天然氣和俄羅斯天然氣通過烏克蘭的製裁，約 12 Bcm。天然氣通過烏克蘭。該合約將於年底到期。烏克蘭人也發表了一些堅定的言論，表示就是這樣。因此，我認為除了液化天然氣鍊或管道天然氣營運的營運中斷之外，這些都是值得關注的因素。所以我的觀點是——我們現在正在進入春季和夏季，固體天然氣儲存庫正在進入。歐洲和中國的需求存在一些潛在成長。微小的變化可能會對價格產生重大影響。現在仍然如此。

So yes. And then, of course, I can -- you all know that sort of current price level is still high in a historical setting, and we have a $2 cost of our gas supplied into this market. So we are going to -- this is going to be a very healthy business for us, no matter what.

所以是的。然後，當然，我可以——你們都知道，當前的價格水平在歷史背景下仍然很高，而且我們向這個市場供應的天然氣成本為 2 美元。因此，無論如何，這對我們來說都將是一項非常健康的業務。

Thank you. And moving to the next on the list, that is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. So Jason, please go ahead.

謝謝。名單上的下一位是 TD Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。所以傑森，請繼續。

Just one quick one for me. Looks like international E&P tax rate was pretty low for the quarter. Just wondering what drove that and what the expectations are for that segment's tax rate moving forward?

對我來說只是一個快速的。看起來本季的國際勘探與生產稅率相當低。只是想知道是什麼推動了這一趨勢以及對該細分市場未來稅率的預期是什麼？

Very good, Jason. Thanks. Yes. So I mean, in the U.S. segment, we reported a 25% tax rate. And we have said that we guide at around 22% to 30%. So that is sort of a normal tax rate. Where we saw this quarter deviation was with the EPI, if you look away from the U.S., where we reported a tax rate of 15%, and that is below our guided range, which is 35% to 50%.

非常好，傑森。謝謝。是的。所以我的意思是，在美國市場，我們報告了 25% 的稅率。我們說過，我們的指導價約為 22% 至 30%。所以這是一個正常的稅率。如果你把目光移開美國，我們發現本季的偏差在於 EPI，我們報告的稅率為 15%，低於我們的指引範圍（35% 至 50%）。

30% to 45%.

30% 至 45%。

And that is due to U.K. and assumptions related to EPL, the windfall taxes and methodology. So I mean, we have -- we have had comments from auditors that maybe have been too conservative in the past. Not too conservative, but that's sort of -- there's an adjustment to that going forward. That makes sense. So we have made some adjustments for -- based on that methodology as such. So that is a one-off effect related to that. So still, you should expect tax rate to come into sort of the guided range.

這是由於英國和與 EPL、暴利稅和方法相關的假設。所以我的意思是，我們收到了審計師的評論，這些評論在過去可能過於保守。不算太保守，但未來會有所調整。這就說得通了。因此，我們根據這種方法做出了一些調整。這是與此相關的一次性效應。因此，您應該預期稅率會進入指導範圍。

Thanks. Thank you, Jason. Next one is Peter Low from Redburn.

謝謝。謝謝你，傑森。下一位是來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

Just a couple of quick clarifications. You talked about a 12% to 16% nominal equity return that you expect to Empire Wind 1. That's post project financing. But does that include a successful farm down? Or would that increase the returns further? And the second one was just on the $17 billion kind of cash flow guidance for this year, you guys said that remains despite the change in the commodity price. Does that include any working capital? Or is that an ex-working capital?

只是一些簡單的澄清。您談到了您期望 Empire Wind 1 獲得 12% 至 16% 的名目股本回報率。但這包括成功的農場嗎？或者這會進一步增加回報嗎？第二個是關於今年 170 億美元的現金流指導，你們說儘管大宗商品價格發生變化，但這項指導仍然存在。這包括任何營運資金嗎？或者說這是前營運資金？

Very good. Thanks, Peter. Yes. So let me just be clear that sort of the 12% to 16% does not include any future farm down. But I think it's fair to say that the 12% to 16%, that is sort of full cycle up to where we are currently. Taking into account the divestment to BP a few years back, but no future divestment and gains as such.

非常好。謝謝，彼得。是的。因此，讓我明確一點，12% 至 16% 不包括任何未來的農場損失。但我認為可以公平地說，12% 到 16% 是我們目前所處的完整週期。考慮到幾年前向 BP 的撤資，但未來沒有撤資和收益。

Then on your $17 billion or $17.5 billion in cash flow from operations yes, very good that you asked that because I had told myself I need to say this on the call. It does not include working capital movements as such. This is sort of before that. So the only place sort of in our reported numbers, where you'll see the working capital movements is sort of in the balance sheet numbers on net debt and sort of the cash position as such.

那麼關於您的 170 億美元或 175 億美元營運現金流，是的，非常好，您問這個問題，因為我告訴自己我需要在電話會議上這麼說。它不包括營運資金流動本身。這是在那之前的事。因此，在我們報告的數據中，您能看到營運資金變動的唯一地方是資產負債表中的淨債務數字和現金部位。

Thank you. Next one is Chris Kuplent from Bank of America.

謝謝。下一位是來自美國銀行的克里斯‧庫普倫特(Chris Kuplent)。

Torgrim, you've covered a lot of ground. So let me just take the opportunity to ask you, you've streamlined your international portfolio over the last few years. And yet here we have a $10 billion perhaps more discovery in Namibia. So I just wanted to double check how jealous that makes you whether potential opportunities for farming into those kind of discoveries. You don't have to comment on the specific data rooms, may yet add new territories and countries to your international portfolio.

托格瑞姆，你已經了解了很多內容。因此，讓我藉此機會問您，您在過去幾年中精簡了您的國際投資組合。然而，我們在納米比亞有一個價值 100 億美元的發現，也許更多。所以我只是想仔細檢查這讓你有多嫉妒，是否有潛在的農業機會進入這些發現。您不必對特定資料室發表評論，還可以將新的地區和國家/地區添加到您的國際投資組合中。

Thanks, Chris. I'm not in -- being jealous is not part of my job description, so I'm not jealous. But clearly, congratulations to those who have made that discovery. And then hopefully, they can develop it in a good manner. So, clearly -- or what we do in our international businesses to say, okay, where do we want to deepen and where do we want to be large. And we have decided there are 3 countries that are sort of really areas for deepening. It is Brazil, it is the U.S., and it is the U.K. So clearly, there, we will be looking for opportunities to continue to build the business.

謝謝，克里斯。我不——嫉妒不是我的工作說明的一部分，所以我不嫉妒。但顯然，祝賀那些做出這項發現的人。然後希望他們能夠以良好的方式發展它。所以，很明顯，或者我們在國際業務中所做的事情是說，好吧，我們想要在哪裡深化，我們想要在哪裡做大。我們認為有 3 個國家確實是需要深化的領域。這是巴西、美國和英國。

And then there are other countries still important for us, and that clearly will work and mature and optimize Angola, Algeria, as two examples. And then there are countries that we are leaving. And as you know, we have announced divestment of Nigeria business and also (inaudible) businesses. Very good and healthy cash flows because we found it better to divest and take benefit of the price environment we are in currently and redeploy that other places in the portfolio.

還有其他國家對我們來說仍然很重要，這顯然會發揮作用，成熟並優化安哥拉和阿爾及利亞兩個例子。然後還有我們要離開的國家。如您所知，我們已宣布撤資尼日利亞業務以及（聽不清楚）業務。非常好的和健康的現金流，因為我們發現最好剝離並利用我們目前所處的價格環境，並重新部署投資組合中的其他地方。

Thank you, Chris. Next one is Nash Cui from Barclays. Nash, your microphone is open.

謝謝你，克里斯。下一位是來自巴克萊銀行的 Nash Cui。納什，你的麥克風打開了。

It's Nash here. Two questions, if that's okay. So the first one is you outlined big payout this year and for next year, a drop in payout for 2026 onwards. So I appreciate it's a long time way. But at what point do you start to look at whether your 2026 payout can be competitive? And then, my second question is on MMP. I think, you mentioned in the presentation that MMP performance has been better than guidance, 5x in a row. So I guess with your potential better underlying performance or better trading volume, do you expect to give an updated guidance on that?

這裡是納許。兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一個是你概述了今年和明年的大筆支出，以及 2026 年以後的支出下降。所以我很感激這是一條很長的路。但您從什麼時候開始考慮 2026 年的支出是否具有競爭力？然後，我的第二個問題是關於 MMP 的。我想，您在演示中提到 MMP 性能連續 5 倍好於指導值。因此，我想，鑑於您潛在的更好的基礎表現或更好的交易量，您是否希望就此提供更新的指導？

Very good. Thanks, Nash. On your first question, yes, it is a significant payout this year and also next year. The way we want to communicate around our capital distribution is that we want to have ordinary cash dividend that you can bank that is there and it will grow by $0.02 on an annual basis. In addition, there will be sort of a $1.2 billion share buyback that will be sort of the run rate that you should believe that comes on a steady basis.

非常好。謝謝，納許。關於你的第一個問題，是的，這是今年和明年的一筆巨額支出。我們希望圍繞資本分配進行溝通的方式是，我們希望擁有普通現金股息，您可以將其存入銀行，並且每年將增長 0.02 美元。此外，還將進行 12 億美元的股票回購，您應該相信這是一個穩定的運行速度。

And then on top of that, we aim to use share buyback to sort of increase or adjust sort of the capital distribution. So clearly, we are very determined that we are going to provide you with a competitive total capital distribution package going forward. We have now given you sort of outlook for 2 years, and that is sort of what is out there. I think, it's also very important for me to say that, that this is a high priority for us as a company, and we do have a significant flexibility in our investment program to adjust our spending and adjust our activity to find a good balance between serving all purposes as such.

除此之外，我們的目標是利用股票回購來增加或調整資本分配。顯然，我們非常決心為您提供有競爭力的總資本分配方案。我們現在已經向您提供了 2 年的展望，這就是目前的情況。我認為，對我來說也非常重要的是，這對我們作為一家公司來說是一個高度優先事項，我們的投資計劃確實具有很大的靈活性，可以調整我們的支出和調整我們的活動，以在兩者之間找到良好的平衡服務於所有目的。

On your second question, whether we want to update the guiding on M&P, the answer to that is no. We are not. This is -- was recently updated, and I'm glad to see that the business is performing well and in a predictable manner, but we have no plans to update the guiding.

關於第二個問題，我們是否要更新M&P指南，答案是否定的。我們不是。這是最近更新的，我很高興看到業務表現良好且以可預測的方式，但我們沒有計劃更新指南。

Thank you, Nash, and thank you, Torgrim. We are fast approaching the hour, and I know it's a busy day for all of you. So I want to thank you all for calling in and for asking questions. As always, the IR team remains available if you have additional follow-up after the call. So with that, I wish you all a good rest of the day. Thank you all.

謝謝你，納什，也謝謝你，托格瑞姆。時間很快就到了，我知道這對你們所有人來說都是忙碌的一天。因此，我要感謝大家致電並提出問題。與往常一樣，如果您在通話後需要進一步跟進，IR 團隊仍會為您提供協助。因此，祝大家今天休息愉快。謝謝你們。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。