Equinor ASA (EQNR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. It is our pleasure to welcome you all to the presentation of Equinor's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results for 2022 and our Capital Markets Update.

女士們，先生們，下午好。我們很高興歡迎大家參加 Equinor 2022 年第四季度和全年業績的介紹以及我們的資本市場更新。

My name is Bård Glad Pedersen. I am, since December last year, heading up the Investor Relations team in Equinor. We have looked forward to engage with you all, and I will soon take you through the program for today.

我的名字是 Bård Glad Pedersen。自去年 12 月以來，我一直領導 Equinor 的投資者關係團隊。我們期待與大家交流，我將很快帶您完成今天的計劃。

But safety first. If an emergency situation occurs, while we are here, the evacuation signal is a voice announcement. We will only evacuate if the announcement say that we should do so. Then please follow the marked fire exits and the instructions from the guards. Exiting is at the ground floor and the venue staff will show you to the assembly point.

但安全第一。如果發生緊急情況，當我們在這裡時，疏散信號是語音通知。只有當公告說我們應該撤離時，我們才會撤離。然後請按照標記的消防通道和警衛的指示行駛。出口在一樓，會場工作人員會帶您到集合點。

Today, we will have 3 presentations here in the plenary session. First of all, it's Anders Opedal, our CEO; then our EVP for MMP, Irene Rummelhoff will present before the session is concluded with Torgrim Reitan, our CFO.

今天，我們將在全體會議上進行 3 場演講。首先是我們的首席執行官 Anders Opedal；然後我們的 MMP 執行副總裁 Irene Rummelhoff 將在會議結束前與我們的首席財務官 Torgrim Reitan 一起出席。

After the presentations, there will be a Q&A session, where the 3 presenters will be on stage and also the CEC is here and available to respond.

演講結束後，將有一個問答環節，3 位演講者將上台，CEC 也將在場並可以做出回應。

Following that, you are all invited to join us for lunch. And for those of you who have signed up, there are breakout sessions with the EVPs for EPN, EPI, REN, MMP, PDP and TDI afterwards. They will all give short introductions and will be ready to answer your questions.

之後，我們將邀請大家共進午餐。對於那些已經註冊的人，之後有與 EPN、EPI、REN、MMP、PDP 和 TDI 的 EVP 的分組會議。他們都會做簡短的介紹，並準備好回答您的問題。

Finally, let me remind you that all the presentations here today are subject to the forward-looking statements that are included. Then Anders, we are ready to start, and the floor is yours.

最後，讓我提醒您，今天在這裡的所有演示文稿均受其中包含的前瞻性陳述的約束。那麼安德斯，我們準備開始了，請發言。

Thank you, Bård. And it's really good to see you all. And to me, it's a pleasure to welcome you finally here in London for our Capital Markets Update. And I and my team, we are really looking forward to share our financial results and the progress on strategy and ambitions.

謝謝你，巴德。很高興見到你們。對我來說，很高興終於在倫敦歡迎您參加我們的資本市場更新。而我和我的團隊，我們真的很期待分享我們的財務業績以及戰略和雄心方面的進展。

2022 was a special year. The war in Europe still causes human suffering and has disrupted the energy markets, contributing to inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. In Europe, this year marks a shift as we move forward, not relying on Russian oil and gas. Equinor responded quickly, and we are well positioned to be a part of the solution. Short term, deliver the energy needed; longer term, to build up sustainable energy sources contributing to energy security and decarbonization. Our milestone this year is the start-up of the Dogger Bank, the world's largest offshore wind farm here in U.K.

2022年是一個特殊的年份。歐洲的戰爭仍在造成人類苦難，並擾亂了能源市場，助長了通貨膨脹和生活成本危機。在歐洲，今年標誌著我們向前邁進的轉變，不再依賴俄羅斯的石油和天然氣。 Equinor 反應迅速，我們有能力成為解決方案的一部分。短期，提供所需的能量；從長遠來看，建立有助於能源安全和脫碳的可持續能源。我們今年的里程碑是 Dogger Bank 的啟動，這是世界上最大的海上風電場，位於英國。

This leads me to the topic of the day, how we will deliver strong returns through the transition. Our strategy remains firm, creating value on the way to net zero. We are progressing on optimizing oil and gas, high-value growth in renewables and developing market opportunities in low-carbon solutions.

這引出了今天的主題，即我們將如何通過過渡獲得豐厚的回報。我們的戰略依然堅定，在實現淨零的過程中創造價值。我們正在優化石油和天然氣、可再生能源的高價值增長以及開發低碳解決方案的市場機會方面取得進展。

Position for high value creation, we expect a strong and resilient cash flow. In a $70 Brent scenario, we expect to deliver a very strong cash flow from operations. On average, around USD 20 billion after tax annually all the way to 2030. We estimate an annual return of capital employed above 15% towards 2030. This strong outlook annually, $20 billion after-tax and solid financial position, funds increased capital distribution and continued investments in profitable projects.

高價值創造的定位，我們預計強勁而有彈性的現金流。在布倫特原油價格為 70 美元的情況下，我們預計將從運營中獲得非常強勁的現金流。平均而言，到 2030 年，每年稅後收入約為 200 億美元。我們估計，到 2030 年，已動用資本的年回報率將超過 15%。這種每年強勁的前景、200 億美元的稅後收入和穩健的財務狀況、資金增加了資本分配和持續投資盈利項目。

For fourth quarter 2022, we stepped up our capital distribution and propose a 50% increase in the ordinary cash dividend to $0.30 per share. In combination with extraordinary dividend and share buyback, we expect a total distribution to shareholders of around $17 billion for 2023. I will revert to this,but let me first present our results.

對於 2022 年第四季度，我們加強了資本分配，並提議將普通現金股息增加 50% 至每股 0.30 美元。結合非凡的股息和股票回購，我們預計 2023 年向股東的總分配額約為 170 億美元。我將回到這個話題，但讓我先介紹一下我們的結果。

On safety, we have achieved improvements on key indicators over several years. Our serious incident frequency of 0.4 was stable from 2021, the best level ever so far. We had no serious well control incidents and hydrocarbon leakages are down. Total injury frequency was 2.5. We continue with our clear goal. All our people returning safely home from work every day.

在安全方面，我們幾年來在關鍵指標上取得了進步。我們 0.4 的嚴重事件頻率從 2021 年開始穩定，是迄今為止最好的水平。我們沒有發生嚴重的井控事故，碳氫化合物洩漏也有所減少。總傷害頻率為 2.5。我們繼續我們明確的目標。我們所有的人每天都安全下班回家。

Last year, we enhanced security within cyber and for our assets, stricter security protocol, more training and closer collaboration with authorities. All of this to safeguard our people, operations, and security of supply for our customers. Sustainability is all about making progress for society. We are committed to creating local value and equal opportunities and protecting the environment.

去年，我們加強了網絡內部和我們資產的安全性、更嚴格的安全協議、更多的培訓以及與當局更密切的合作。所有這些都是為了保護我們的員工、運營和為我們的客戶提供的供應安全。可持續發展就是要為社會取得進步。我們致力於創造當地價值和平等機會，並保護環境。

In 2022, we responded to the energy security situation by boosting our gas production and shipping more crude to Europe. I'm really proud of the hard work from colleagues to ensure safe and efficient supply of energy. This is a true team effort.

2022 年，我們通過提高天然氣產量和向歐洲運送更多原油來應對能源安全形勢。我為同事們為確保安全高效的能源供應所做的辛勤工作感到非常自豪。這是真正的團隊合作。

And during the year, 2,600 new colleagues joined Equinor replacing and renewing competence, demonstrating our attractiveness in a tight labor market. Last year, we delivered strong operational performance. 5 new fields on stream at a capacity of more than 200,000 barrels per day, around half of this from Johan Sverdrup Phase 2. In addition, we have put our floating wind farm, Hywind Tampen in production on NCS.

在這一年中，有 2,600 名新同事加入 Equinor，取代和更新了能力，展示了我們在緊張的勞動力市場中的吸引力。去年，我們實現了強勁的運營業績。 5 個新油田投產，日產能超過 200,000 桶，其中約一半來自 Johan Sverdrup 二期。此外，我們已將浮動風電場 Hywind Tampen 在 NCS 上投入生產。

We delivered net operating income of $79 billion and adjusted earnings of $75 billion. This clearly demonstrates our ability to capture value from high prices and volatile markets. Our free cash flow before capital distribution came in at $32 billion. The earnings brought -- these earnings brought return on capital employed to 55%.

我們實現了 790 億美元的淨營業收入和 750 億美元的調整後收益。這清楚地表明我們有能力從高價和動蕩的市場中獲取價值。我們在資本分配之前的自由現金流為 320 億美元。帶來的收益——這些收益使已動用資本回報率達到 55%。

Across the portfolio, we have progressed on projects to reduce our own emissions. Our CO2 intensity ended at 6.9, well below half the industry average. We are progressing our projects for decarbonization with CO2 transport and storage. Including the Smeaheia license on NCS awarded last year, we have our acreage to store around 30 million tonnes CO2 annually.

在整個產品組合中，我們在減少自身排放的項目上取得了進展。我們的二氧化碳排放強度為 6.9，遠低於行業平均水平的一半。我們正在通過 CO2 運輸和儲存推進脫碳項目。包括去年授予的 NCS Smeaheia 許可在內，我們的土地面積每年可封存約 3000 萬噸二氧化碳。

Our strong cash flow outlook, continued capital discipline and robust balance sheet is the basis for the increase in capital distribution. To me, it is important that the step-up provides highly competitive distribution for 2023 and increase predictability and commitment in the long run. The Board proposes a 50% increase of the ordinary cash dividend from $0.20 to $0.30 per share from the fourth quarter. Our dividend policy remains firm. We expect to increase the annual ordinary cash dividend in line with long-term underlying earnings now from a higher base.

我們強勁的現金流前景、持續的資本紀律和穩健的資產負債表是增加資本分配的基礎。對我來說，重要的是升級為 2023 年提供極具競爭力的分配，並從長遠來看提高可預測性和承諾。董事會提議從第四季度起將普通現金股息從每股 0.20 美元增加 50% 至 0.30 美元。我們的股息政策依然堅定。我們預計將增加年度普通現金股息，以符合現在較高基數的長期基礎收益。

In addition to the ordinary cash dividend, now above pre-COVID levels, share buyback are an integrated part of our ordinary capital distribution. We continued the program we introduced back in June 2021 of $1.2 billion per year.

除了現在高於 COVID 前水平的普通現金股息外，股票回購是我們普通資本分配的一個組成部分。我們繼續實施我們於 2021 年 6 月推出的每年 12 億美元的計劃。

The record earnings last year and our strong financial position also enables extraordinary distribution to shareholders in 2023. We proposed an extraordinary cash dividend of $0.60 per share for fourth quarter. This will bring total quarterly cash dividend to $0.90 per share subject to AGM approval. The Board is clear in its intention to maintain this level for the first 3 quarters of 2023.

去年創紀錄的收益和我們強勁的財務狀況也使我們能夠在 2023 年向股東進行特別分配。我們提議在第四季度派發每股 0.60 美元的特別現金股息。經 AGM 批准，這將使季度現金股息總額達到每股 0.90 美元。董事會明確打算在 2023 年前三個季度保持這一水平。

In addition, we proposed an extraordinary buyback of shares of $4.8 billion, making it $6 billion for the year. In total, this leads to a capital distribution to shareholders of around $17 billion in 2023.

此外，我們還提議特別回購 48 億美元的股票，使其全年達到 60 億美元。總的來說，這導致到 2023 年向股東分配的資本約為 170 億美元。

We are in a unique position to create value, providing energy security and decarbonization, on liquids, gas and power production. Our liquids gas and power production is high, but far exceeded by the volumes we sell and trade. Last year, we sold more than 800 million barrels of liquids, 100 BCMs of gas and traded more than 175 terawatt hours of power. We optimize and create value from production, our infrastructure and the volumes we sell and trade.

我們在液體、氣體和電力生產方面處於創造價值、提供能源安全和脫碳的獨特地位。我們的液化氣和電力產量很高，但遠遠超過我們的銷售和貿易量。去年，我們銷售了超過 8 億桶液體和 100 BCM 的天然氣，並交易了超過 175 太瓦時的電力。我們從生產、我們的基礎設施以及我們的銷售和交易量中優化和創造價值。

On top of this, we will provide decarbonization through CCS and hydrogen. We leverage our full portfolio as we seek to develop new value chains with industrial partners and customers.

最重要的是，我們將通過 CCS 和氫氣提供脫碳。我們利用我們的全部產品組合尋求與工業合作夥伴和客戶一起開發新的價值鏈。

Going forward, we are set to continue capturing high value from volatile and tight markets. On back of this, we increased our guiding for marketing, midstream and processing by 60%. Creating and capturing value across our business, we estimate our free cash flow over the 4 years to 2026 of around $25 billion.

展望未來，我們將繼續從波動和緊張的市場中獲取高價值。在此背景下，我們將營銷、中游和加工的指導增加了 60%。在整個業務中創造和獲取價值，我們估計到 2026 年的 4 年內我們的自由現金流量約為 250 億美元。

We will continue to develop our profitable oil and gas portfolio. Last year, we sanctioned 13 projects, adding around 600 million barrels in reserves. We keep on exploring with around 35 exploration wells planned this year. In 2023, we estimate a 3% production increase. By the end of the decade, we expect the production to be on par with today, while delivering a 50% reduction in our emissions. The estimated production will secure long-term supply of gas from NCS to Europe. We expect the average annual production to be above 40 Bcms throughout the decade. And our piped gas to Europe have less than 1/5 of the CO2 intensity compared to LNG imports.

我們將繼續開發有利可圖的石油和天然氣產品組合。去年，我們批准了13個項目，新增儲量約6億桶。繼續勘探，今年規劃探井約35口。到 2023 年，我們估計產量將增加 3%。到本世紀末，我們預計產量將與今天持平，同時減少 50% 的排放量。預計產量將確保從 NCS 向歐洲長期供應天然氣。我們預計未來十年平均年產量將超過 40 Bcms。與液化天然氣進口相比，我們輸往歐洲的管道天然氣的二氧化碳濃度不到 1/5。

Our Norwegian portfolio is the backbone of the company, and we continue developing assets, increasing value creation. Internationally, we have further focused our portfolio with a clear mindset of value over volume.

我們的挪威投資組合是公司的支柱，我們將繼續開發資產，增加價值創造。在國際上，我們以價值高於數量的清晰思維進一步集中我們的投資組合。

Kjetil and Philippe will show you how our Norwegian and International portfolio are set to deliver strong cash flow to 2030 and beyond. Our oil and gas business is robust and cash flow neutral at around $30 per barrel, and we continue to improve.

Kjetil 和 Philippe 將向您展示我們的挪威和國際投資組合將如何在 2030 年及以後提供強勁的現金流。我們的石油和天然氣業務穩健且現金流中性，約為每桶 30 美元，而且我們還在不斷改進。

Our projects in execution have reduced costs since investment decision despite inflation. Hege and Geir will talk about execution excellence and how we manage cost and create value through technology implementation.

儘管有通貨膨脹，但自投資決定以來，我們正在執行的項目已經降低了成本。 Hege 和 Geir 將討論卓越執行以及我們如何通過技術實施來管理成本和創造價值。

Across the full company, including renewables and low carbon solutions, we plan to invest $10 billion to $11 billion in 2023 and around $13 billion annually from '24 to '26. No company, including Equinor, is shielded from the inflation and cost pressure in our industry. Capital discipline and cost management is high on our agenda, and we take firm actions. We use flexibility and optionality in our portfolio. We collaborate closely with suppliers, and we use new technology to reduce cost and increase production.

在整個公司，包括可再生能源和低碳解決方案，我們計劃在 2023 年投資 100 億至 110 億美元，從 24 世紀到 26 年每年投資約 130 億美元。包括 Equinor 在內的任何公司都無法免受我們行業的通貨膨脹和成本壓力的影響。資本紀律和成本管理是我們議程上的重中之重，我們採取堅定的行動。我們在我們的投資組合中使用靈活性和可選性。我們與供應商密切合作，我們使用新技術來降低成本和增加產量。

From this year and until 2026, we expect unit production costs for oil and gas below $6. We continue to work to manage costs and mitigate inflation, and Torgrim will provide more details on this.

從今年到 2026 年，我們預計石油和天然氣的單位生產成本將低於 6 美元。我們將繼續努力管理成本和降低通貨膨脹，Torgrim 將提供更多相關細節。

Profitability is at the core as we grow in renewables. This is demanding and will require discipline. As history shows, we have won bids at price level supportive of value creation, also making us more robust towards impairments. Our California lease serves as a new demonstration. Our farmdowns have been at high price levels, capturing the benefit of early access. We maintain our expectation of projects return of 4% to 8% real.

隨著我們在可再生能源領域的發展，盈利能力是核心。這要求很高，需要紀律。正如歷史所表明的那樣，我們以支持價值創造的價格水平贏得了投標，也使我們對減值更加穩健。我們在加州的租約就是一個新的示範。我們的農場一直處於高價位，抓住了搶先體驗的好處。我們維持對項目實際回報率為 4% 至 8% 的預期。

As projects start production, power generation will grow rapidly, and we have the optionality to prioritize the projects, bringing the best returns. We expect to grow our annual production from the 1.6 terawatt hours today to between 35 terawatt hours and 60 terawatt hours in 2030.

隨著項目投產，發電量將快速增長，我們可以選擇優先項目，帶來最佳回報。我們預計我們的年產量將從今天的 1.6 太瓦時增加到 2030 年的 35 太瓦時和 60 太瓦時之間。

Pål and Helge will show you how we will further increase value creation from this. We remain firm on strategy, but flexible on execution and continue putting value over volume.

Pål 和 Helge 將向您展示我們將如何進一步增加由此產生的價值。我們在戰略上保持堅定，但在執行上保持靈活，並繼續將價值置於數量之上。

Equinor has safely stored CO2 for almost 30 years at the Sleipner field. We introduced low-carbon solutions as a part of our corporate strategy in 2021. Since then, we have made strong progress. We are taking the lead in developing the North Sea as a hub for commercial carbon storage. And we are on track to store 15 million to 30 million tonnes CO2 per year by 2035.

Equinor 已在 Sleipner 油田安全儲存二氧化碳近 30 年。我們在 2021 年引入了低碳解決方案作為公司戰略的一部分。從那時起，我們取得了長足的進步。我們率先將北海開發為商業碳儲存中心。到 2035 年，我們有望每年儲存 1500 萬至 3000 萬噸二氧化碳。

For our projects and plans in Europe and U.S., the recent policy developments will strengthen the commercial potential. We see growing interest in CO2 storage and hydrogen from industrial customers. Irene will give more details, but let me share a few highlights.

對於我們在歐洲和美國的項目和計劃，最近的政策發展將增強商業潛力。我們看到工業客戶對二氧化碳儲存和氫氣的興趣越來越大。 Irene 會提供更多細節，但讓我分享一些亮點。

Last summer, Northern Lights on Norwegian Continental Shelf signed the first commercial agreement. In U.K., our East Coast cluster was shortlisted in the government clustering process. And in January, we announced a cooperation with RWE in Germany for energy security and decarbonization. Together, we aim to help Germany transition from coal to gas to low-carbon hydrogen and finally, hydrogen from renewables. We are collaborating on new value chains in several industrial clusters. By 2035, we aim to have 3 to 5 clean hydrogen projects.

去年夏天，挪威大陸架上的北極光簽署了第一份商業協議。在英國，我們的東海岸集群入圍了政府集群流程。 1 月份，我們宣布與德國 RWE 就能源安全和脫碳開展合作。我們的目標是共同幫助德國從煤炭到天然氣再到低碳氫，最後是可再生能源中的氫。我們正在幾個產業集群中合作開發新的價值鏈。到 2035 年，我們的目標是擁有 3 到 5 個清潔氫項目。

The energy transition will be demanding with difficult dilemmas. We believe in a balanced transition and Equinor must solve for three things, reduce emission for ourselves and our customers, build up new energy sources and secure reliable energy. We will work hard to deliver on this, but at the same time, create value for shareholders and society. We continue to cut emissions from operations. Since 2015, we have cut almost 30% of our emissions on the way to net 50% reduction in 2030.

能源轉型將面臨艱鉅挑戰。我們相信平衡過渡，Equinor 必須解決三件事，為我們自己和我們的客戶減少排放，建立新能源並確保可靠的能源。我們將努力實現這一目標，同時為股東和社會創造價值。我們繼續減少運營排放。自 2015 年以來，我們已經削減了近 30% 的排放量，力爭在 2030 年實現淨減排 50%。

The share of gross investments in renewable and low carbon is on track to our 30% share by 2025 and progressing towards -- with more than 50% in 2030. We are also progressing on our energy transition plan and remain committed to the ambition of net zero.

到 2025 年，可再生能源和低碳的總投資份額有望達到我們的 30%，並正在朝著 2030 年超過 50% 的方向前進。我們也在推進我們的能源轉型計劃，並繼續致力於實現淨能源的雄心零。

So let me sum up. We are uniquely positioned to create value and strong cash flow on average around $20 billion after tax per year towards 2030. We reaffirm our commitment and step up capital distribution while investing in our profitable portfolio. We can deliver the energy needed while driving the transition to a low carbon future.

所以讓我總結一下。我們具有獨特的優勢，可以在 2030 年之前創造價值和每年平均約 200 億美元的稅後現金流。我們重申我們的承諾並加強資本分配，同時投資於我們盈利的投資組合。我們可以在推動向低碳未來過渡的同時提供所需的能源。

So thank you, everyone, for the attention. And I look forward to the question later. But first, Irene, happy birthday, and the floor is yours.

謝謝大家的關注。我期待稍後的問題。但首先，艾琳，生日快樂，請發言。

Just hoping to keep that a secret. But there you go. Well, thank you, Anders, and it's really good to see you all. I'll cover 3 topics today. I'll share some reflections on the gas market, then I'll explain why we upped our guidance. And then thirdly, I'll talk about and convince you that we're uniquely positioned to develop low carbon value chains.

只是希望保守秘密。但是你去吧。嗯，謝謝你，安德斯，很高興見到大家。我今天將介紹 3 個主題。我將分享對天然氣市場的一些看法，然後我將解釋為什麼我們提高了我們的指導。第三，我將談論並說服你我們在發展低碳價值鏈方面處於獨特的地位。

So first, the gas market. You all know what happened to the Russian volumes last year and how here have managed to replace them through increased exports from Norway, severe demand reduction, but also very costly LNG imports. Lately, we've seen some relief, a relief that is directly correlated to the fact that we're in the midst of one of the warmest winters on record in Europe, and we actually saw demand reduction at 32% in January.

首先是天然氣市場。你們都知道去年俄羅斯的產量發生了什麼變化，以及這裡如何通過增加挪威出口、需求大幅減少以及非常昂貴的液化天然氣進口來取代它們。最近，我們看到了一些緩解，這種緩解與我們正處於歐洲有記錄以來最溫暖的冬季之一這一事實直接相關，我們實際上看到 1 月份的需求減少了 32%。

So now the gas market is all about preparing for next winter. And we do believe that it's likely that storages will be built come November at the EU target or above 90%. But that requires continued demand reduction and high LNG imports levels. However, real relief will only come into this market beyond 2026, when we expect significant volumes coming in from US (corrected by company after the call) and Qatar.

所以現在天然氣市場都在為下一個冬天做準備。而且我們確實相信，到 11 月建造的存儲可能會達到歐盟的目標或超過 90%。但這需要持續減少需求和高液化天然氣進口水平。然而，只有在 2026 年以後，這個市場才會真正鬆一口氣，屆時我們預計美國（公司在電話會議後更正）和卡塔爾將有大量進口。

So in the meantime, the market will remain fundamentally tight and nervous, as my boss said earlier today. And I think there maybe the 3 most or the biggest uncertainties to watch out for our weather, weather in Europe, weather in Asia, we saw how impactful this was this winter. Then it is also quite interesting to see whether, for instance, industrial demand will come up again, now that we've kind of landed at a dampened level. And the supply interruptions is always something to look out for, particularly in such a tight market.

因此，與此同時，正如我的老闆今天早些時候所說，市場將從根本上保持緊張和緊張。我認為可能有 3 個最多或最大的不確定性需要注意我們的天氣，歐洲的天氣，亞洲的天氣，我們看到了今年冬天的影響有多大。然後，看看工業需求是否會再次上升也很有趣，因為我們已經降落在受抑制的水平上。供應中斷總是需要注意的事情，尤其是在如此緊張的市場中。

Going forward, we expect massive investments in renewables. If you couple that with the rapidly changing weather patterns, you will need energy storage. And the call up on flexible gas is expected to be significant. And I think a very illustrative example is what happened in Germany this winter. Between a cold day in December 13 and a warm and windy day on January 4, the difference in store between storage injection versus withdrawals, with 260 million cubic meters. And that's actually equivalent to all the gas that we export from Norway on a normal day. Volatility is something that me and my team, we've talked about for quite some time. We expected it, and we have prepared for it.

展望未來，我們預計將對可再生能源進行大規模投資。如果將其與快速變化的天氣模式相結合，您將需要儲能。預計對靈活氣體的需求將很大。我認為一個非常說明性的例子就是今年冬天在德國發生的事情。從12月13日寒冷的天氣到1月4日溫暖多風的日子，注庫與取庫之差達2.6億立方米。這實際上相當於我們正常情況下從挪威出口的所有天然氣。波動性是我和我的團隊已經討論了很長時間的事情。我們預料到了，我們也做好了準備。

Back in 2019, we changed our gas sales strategy, and we're basically now selling all our gas on spot indexation. Meaning that we can capture volatility and price spikes like the one we saw in August this summer.

早在 2019 年，我們就改變了天然氣銷售策略，我們現在基本上是按現貨指數銷售所有天然氣。這意味著我們可以像今年夏天 8 月看到的那樣捕捉波動和價格飆升。

Company comment_ included manually by listening to the uploaded webcast on equinor.com as there were technical issues during the live webcast: This change in strategy has served us, I would say, extremely well over the last a few years. And it's made Equinor earning billions of additional dollars compared to where we would have been with the previous strategy. Also in 2019, we acquired Danske Commodities. We did that to add a muscle that could increase the value of our renewable production. But as importantly, we acquired competence, we acquired IT systems, algo trading capabilities, which is perfectly suited to actively trade around volatility. And I bet you while I have my 15 minutes of fame here on stage today, Danske has put on at least 250 trades.

公司評論_通過在 equinor.com 上收聽上傳的網絡廣播手動添加，因為網絡直播期間存在技術問題：我想說，在過去幾年中，這種戰略變化對我們非常有用。與我們以前的策略相比，它使 Equinor 賺取了數十億美元的額外收入。同樣在 2019 年，我們收購了 Danske Commodities。我們這樣做是為了增加可以增加可再生能源生產價值的力量。但同樣重要的是，我們獲得了能力，我們獲得了 IT 系統和算法交易能力，這些能力非常適合積極圍繞波動性進行交易。我敢打賭，當我今天在舞台上獲得 15 分鐘的名聲時，Danske 已經進行了至少 250 次交易。

Let me take a few minutes to talk about trading. Our fundamental trading strategy is what we call asset backed trading. And this is important because this trading philosophy comes with limited downside but significant upside. And I think maybe the best way to illustrate that is to take you through an example. And I will use Emden as a landing point for our gas. In '21, we decided to take on additional capacity towards Emden for the next a few years. When you get to Emden, you can choose whether you route gas to the Dutch market or the German market, basically option value at her hands. On the day-to-day basis the spot market directs where we route the gas, but more interestingly, we can trade around the forward market. So last year, when we saw the spread between the Dutch and the German market develop out on the forward curve, we decide to lock in that value. Then the spread kind of narrowed, we decided to monetise part of that value and create new optionality. And this pattern repeated itself several times, and in the end, we made more than $ 100 million dollars on that one position that choice to take that additional capacity. Obviously, volatility was extreme last year. But with the algo trading capability we now have in house, it allows us to trade, you know, thousands of times on smaller volatility on the forward curve, meaning that can add significant value as well. The Emden example was, is only one of, I would argue, hundreds or numerous of flexibility, optionality that we have in our portfolio.

讓我花幾分鐘時間談談交易。我們的基本交易策略就是所謂的資產支持交易。這一點很重要，因為這種交易理念的下行空間有限，但上行空間很大。我認為也許最好的說明方式就是舉個例子。我將使用埃姆登作為我們天然氣的著陸點。在 21 年，我們決定在接下來的幾年裡增加對埃姆登的產能。到了埃姆登，你可以選擇是將天然氣輸送到荷蘭市場還是德國市場，基本上期權價值在她手上。在日常基礎上，現貨市場指導我們將天然氣輸送到哪裡，但更有趣的是，我們可以圍繞遠期市場進行交易。所以去年，當我們看到荷蘭和德國市場之間的價差在遠期曲線上發展時，我們決定鎖定該值。然後價差縮小了，我們決定將該價值的一部分貨幣化並創造新的選擇權。這種模式重複了好幾次，最後，我們在那個選擇增加容量的位置上賺了超過 1 億美元。顯然，去年的波動性非常大。但憑藉我們現在擁有的算法交易能力，它允許我們在遠期曲線上以較小的波動進行數千次交易，這意味著這也可以增加顯著的價值。 Emden 的例子是，我認為，這只是我們投資組合中數百種或多種靈活性和可選性中的一種。

And this leads me to the next slide. I guess based on expected high volatility going forward, strong balance sheet, and increasingly flexible portfolio and growing digital capabilities, we have decided to up our MMP results guiding to 400-800. At this point, I would like to add that the great and very capable and super motivated organisation that I have behind me gives even higher confidence in this new level. I know many, at least some of you, do think that our result is a black box so if you allow me a few minutes, I will try to deconstruct some of the elements in our results for you. The first part of the results is made of tariffs and marketing fees. Steady, base income. Mongstad refinery will give a positive contribution as long as the refinery margins are within normal range. Then based on our insights from the physical trading, we do some proprietary paper trading, but that's a limited part of our overall portfolio.

這將我帶到下一張幻燈片。我想基於預期的高波動性、強勁的資產負債表、越來越靈活的投資組合和不斷增長的數字能力，我們決定將我們的 MMP 結果提高到 400-800。在這一點上，我想補充一點，我背後的偉大、非常有能力和超級積極的組織給了我對這個新水平的更高信心。我知道很多人，至少你們中的一些人，確實認為我們的結果是一個黑盒子，所以如果你給我幾分鐘時間，我會嘗試為你解構我們結果中的一些元素。結果的第一部分由關稅和營銷費用組成。穩定的基本收入。只要煉油廠利潤率在正常範圍內，Mongstad 煉油廠就會做出積極貢獻。然後根據我們對實物交易的見解，我們進行了一些專有的紙面交易，但這只是我們整體投資組合的有限部分。

By far, the majority of our incomes comes from trading around option and optimization. This is where we trade around gas storages, where Danske trade around interconnectors between power markets, we trade around the geographical flexibility that we have in our pipeline system. And as for the Emden example, this comes with limited downside but significant upside. And if I were to give another proof point of that, I'd like to draw your attention to our crude results. We've constantly or consistently delivered positive crude results for the last 15 quarters, independent on contango or backwardated market.

到目前為止，我們的大部分收入來自圍繞期權和優化進行的交易。這就是我們圍繞儲氣庫進行交易的地方，丹斯克圍繞電力市場之間的互連器進行交易的地方，我們圍繞我們在管道系統中擁有的地理靈活性進行交易的地方。至於 Emden 的例子，這帶來了有限的缺點，但帶來了顯著的好處。如果我要給出另一個證明點，我想提請你注意我們的粗略結果。在過去的 15 個季度中，我們不斷或始終如一地提供積極的粗略結果，獨立於期貨或現貨市場。

So I hope this little run-through convinced you that at least the lower part of that range is made up of high-quality, low-risk earnings that deserve some higher multiples going forward.

因此，我希望通過這個小小的介紹讓您相信，至少該範圍的較低部分是由高質量、低風險的收益組成的，這些收益值得未來獲得更高的倍數。

Then initially, I promised to explain why I do think we are uniquely positioned to develop low-carbon value chains. Our strategy is very much centered around industrial clusters in the vicinity of our landing points where we have long-standing relationships and we see significant and material decarbonization potential.

然後最初，我答應解釋為什麼我認為我們在發展低碳價值鏈方面具有獨特的優勢。我們的戰略主要圍繞著陸點附近的產業集群，我們在這些地方有著長期的合作關係，我們看到了重大的脫碳潛力。

If you look at industries such as steel, cement, fertilizer, chemicals, what is it that they need to be relevant in a low-carbon European future? Well, I would argue they need 3 things. They need base load clean power, they need low-carbon feedstock, and they need CO2 management services. And here, we are perfectly positioned to offer them that.

如果你看看鋼鐵、水泥、化肥、化工等行業，它們需要與低碳歐洲未來相關的是什麼？好吧，我認為他們需要三樣東西。他們需要基本負荷清潔能源，需要低碳原料，還需要 CO2 管理服務。在這裡，我們完全有能力為他們提供這些服務。

Through renewable PPAs backed up by flexible power from decarbonized gas-fired power plants, clean feedstock in the form of hydrogen and, of course, our CO2 transportation and storage services.

通過由脫碳燃氣發電廠的靈活電力支持的可再生 PPA、氫氣形式的清潔原料，當然還有我們的 CO2 運輸和儲存服務。

Earlier in settings like this, I've talked about the Northern Lights, I've talked about what we do together with SSE in the Humber region and Anders gave you some recent highlights. So I will focus in on 2 areas or regions where we made material progress over the last 2 years, Germany and Belgium.

早些時候在這樣的環境中，我談到了北極光，我談到了我們在亨伯地區與 SSE 一起做的事情，安德斯給了你一些最近的亮點。因此，我將重點關注過去兩年我們取得重大進展的兩個領域或地區，即德國和比利時。

In January, we announced the cooperation with RWE. Very excited about it. We worked hard to get there, whereby we plan to develop 3 gigawatt of hydrogen-ready power plants in Germany. They will be operational in the late '20s. They will replace coal assets, and they will run on Equinor gas with low-carbon footprint.

一月份，我們宣布了與萊茵集團的合作。對此非常興奮。我們努力實現這一目標，我們計劃在德國開發 3 吉瓦的氫氣就緒發電廠。它們將在 20 年代後期投入運營。它們將取代煤炭資產，並使用低碳足蹟的 Equinor 天然氣。

Gradually, they will transition to run on hydrogen, hydrogen that will be produced from natural gas in Norway. We capture the CO2, store it offshore and then pipe the hydrogen to Germany. Later on, along the route, we will plan to together develop offshore wind assets that could also put green hydrogen or renewable hydrogen into the same infrastructure.

逐漸地，他們將過渡到使用氫氣運行，氫氣將在挪威從天然氣中生產。我們捕獲二氧化碳，將其儲存在海上，然後將氫氣通過管道輸送到德國。稍後，沿著這條路線，我們將計劃共同開發海上風電資產，這些資產也可以將綠色氫或可再生氫納入同一基礎設施。

The hydrogen pipeline will serve, obviously, the CCGTs as an anchor customer, but also other industrial customers. Combining I guess, the unique strengths of both RWE and ourselves, makes this a unique value proposition. And we are extremely encouraged by the support that we have received from both the Norwegian and German government in this respect.

顯然，氫氣管道將為作為主要客戶的 CCGT 以及其他工業客戶提供服務。我想，結合 RWE 和我們自己的獨特優勢，這將成為一個獨特的價值主張。我們對挪威和德國政府在這方面的支持感到非常鼓舞。

In Belgium, we cooperate with ENGIE and Fluxys on a similar value chain. This time, we intend to produce the hydrogen in the Antwerp and Ghent industrial area and transport the CO2 back to Norway.

在比利時，我們在類似的價值鏈上與 ENGIE 和 Fluxys 合作。這一次，我們打算在安特衛普和根特工業區生產氫氣，並將二氧化碳運回挪威。

Again, lots of interest from industrial customers in a very concentrated area, we've already signed several non-binding MoUs. And the size of the -- well, the size of the interest is so significant that we do expect to be able to transport the CO2 via pipeline back to Norway, which will significantly take down the cost of the transportation services.

同樣，在一個非常集中的地區，工業客戶對我們很感興趣，我們已經簽署了幾份不具約束力的諒解備忘錄。而且——嗯，利益的規模如此之大，以至於我們確實希望能夠通過管道將二氧化碳運回挪威，這將大大降低運輸服務的成本。

Again, very important close collaboration with both the Flemish and the Belgian governments and authorities and excited about how we see them working hard to incentivize their own customers to go through with this decarbonization.

同樣，與佛蘭德和比利時政府及當局的密切合作非常重要，我們對他們如何努力工作以激勵他們自己的客戶完成脫碳感到興奮。

SSE, RWE, ENGIE, they are major players in the power market. They have access to sites, they have access to grids. They have local knowledge. They work closely with their hosts, respective host governments. Cooperating with these top-notch players in their home markets allows Equinor to develop a significant flexible power portfolio.

SSE、RWE、ENGIE，它們是電力市場的主要參與者。他們可以訪問站點，可以訪問網格。他們有當地的知識。他們與東道國、各自的東道國政府密切合作。與這些國內市場的一流企業合作，使 Equinor 能夠開發出重要的靈活電力產品組合。

This will also benefit our renewable business. And if you are interested in learning more about this, I suggest you join Pål and Helge in one of the roundtables later today or you should be interested in this.

這也將有利於我們的可再生能源業務。如果您有興趣了解更多相關信息，我建議您在今天晚些時候加入 Pål 和 Helge 的圓桌會議之一，或者您應該對此感興趣。

So to sum up, we do believe market volatility will persist. We believe we are well positioned with our flexible asset positions and our asset-backed trading strategy. Hence, we have decided to up our guidance from $250 million to $500 million to $400 million to $800 million per quarter. That's quite a mouthful.

綜上所述，我們確實相信市場波動將持續存在。我們相信我們在靈活的資產頭寸和資產支持的交易策略方面處於有利地位。因此，我們決定將我們的指導從每季度 2.5 億美元提高到 5 億美元到 4 億美元到 8 億美元。那真是一口。

And I also do hope that you have seen how we are working hard to mature these low-carbon value chains. And we do attack 4 elements in parallel. And I think maybe that's a little bit of a differentiator with respect to us. We work on the upstream production and storage. We work on the transportation and infrastructure. We work on the customer side and also the political support in parallel. If you don't do that, you will not succeed.

我也確實希望您已經看到我們如何努力使這些低碳價值鏈成熟。我們確實同時攻擊 4 個元素。我認為這對我們來說可能有點不同。我們致力於上游的生產和存儲。我們致力於交通和基礎設施。我們在客戶方面工作，同時也提供政治支持。如果你不這樣做，你就不會成功。

So thank you for your attention and Torgrim, it's your turn.

謝謝你的關注，Torgrim，輪到你了。

So thank you very much, Irene, and thank you all for joining us today. It is very good to see you again, and it is very good to be back as CFO in Equinor. Since my last time around, a lot has changed. But one thing remains constant. Value creation is our top priority. After safety, this is the first priority. And it is always more important than the volume targets. So coming into this role, I have 2 main priorities.

非常感謝艾琳，感謝大家今天加入我們。很高興再次見到你，很高興回到 Equinor 擔任首席財務官。自從我上次來這里以來，發生了很多變化。但有一件事保持不變。創造價值是我們的首要任務。安全之後，這是第一要務。而且它總是比數量目標更重要。所以進入這個角色，我有兩個主要優先事項。

First, that Equinor steers safely through volatility and through these uncertain times and come out as a stronger company. And second, that we continue to be a leading company in the energy transition and deliver cash flow and creating value for shareholders.

首先，Equinor 安全地度過了波動和這些不確定的時期，並成為一家更強大的公司。其次，我們將繼續成為能源轉型領域的領先公司，提供現金流並為股東創造價值。

Our robust balance sheet and strong cash flow outlook positioned us well to transition in an investor-friendly way. In 2022, we had solid operations. And we contributed to energy security. And at the same time, we delivered record returns and cash flow from operations. We stepped up our capital distribution, and we invested more than ever in the energy transition. So this result does not come for free. My colleagues in Equinor have made significant improvements over the past years, and we are now benefiting from that.

我們穩健的資產負債表和強勁的現金流前景使我們能夠以對投資者友好的方式順利過渡。 2022年，我們經營穩健。我們為能源安全做出了貢獻。與此同時，我們實現了創紀錄的運營回報和現金流。我們加強了資本分配，我們在能源轉型方面的投資比以往任何時候都多。所以這個結果不是免費的。我在 Equinor 的同事在過去幾年裡取得了重大進步，我們現在正從中受益。

So we're in a good position, and we have a strong balance sheet. But in times like this, we need to prepare for lower prices and drive cost and capital discipline. So I will walk you through our financial framework after I had taken -- talking to our results.

所以我們處於有利地位，我們擁有強大的資產負債表。但在這樣的時期，我們需要為更低的價格做好準備，並推動成本和資本紀律。因此，在我採取行動後，我將帶您了解我們的財務框架——談談我們的結果。

So in the fourth quarter and full year, we saw solid operations from oil and gas. Against this dark backdrop of the Russian war on Ukraine, we completed our exit from Russia. The flexibility of our gas fields on the NCS enabled us to deliver more gas to Europe. However, in the fourth quarter, we reduced our gas position -- gas production since gas demand fell. So we will produce this gas in later periods with higher demand, but this reduced production in the quarter by 48,000 barrels per day.

因此，在第四季度和全年，我們看到了石油和天然氣的穩健運營。在俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動戰爭的黑暗背景下，我們完成了從俄羅斯的撤離。我們在 NCS 上氣田的靈活性使我們能夠向歐洲輸送更多天然氣。然而，在第四季度，我們減少了我們的天然氣頭寸——由於天然氣需求下降，天然氣產量。因此，我們將在需求較高的後期生產這種天然氣，但這使該季度的產量每天減少了 48,000 桶。

Snøhvit produced for the full quarter, Johan Sverdrup Phase 2, and Njord in Norway started up and Peregrino in Brazil ramped up.

Snøhvit 為整個季度生產，挪威的 Johan Sverdrup 第二階段和 Njord 開始生產，巴西的 Peregrino 開始生產。

Power generation from renewables came in 6% higher for the full year, in addition to our renewable assets in operations. We are now generating power from gas from the Triton Power Station.

除了我們運營中的可再生能源資產外，全年可再生能源發電量增長了 6%。我們現在使用 Triton 發電站的天然氣發電。

For the full year, we had a record net operating income of $79 billion, $79 billion. And we delivered unprecedented adjusted earnings before and after tax.

全年，我們的淨營業收入達到創紀錄的 790 億美元，790 億美元。我們實現了前所未有的稅前和稅後調整後收益。

In the fourth quarter, we continued to deliver strong results and net income of $7.9 billion and adjusted earnings after tax of $5.8 billion. So Equinor, we are not shielded from tight markets and inflation. We do see a growth in our OpEx and SG&A costs. And the underlying increase is masked by the strengthening of the dollar. So I will come back to how we are addressing costs.

第四季度，我們繼續取得強勁業績，淨收入為 79 億美元，調整後稅後收益為 58 億美元。所以 Equinor，我們並沒有免受市場緊縮和通貨膨脹的影響。我們確實看到我們的運營支出和 SG&A 成本有所增長。美元走強掩蓋了潛在的增長。所以我會回到我們如何解決成本問題。

With the strong results from the U.S. business and the expectation that income will be taxable in a few years, we can now recognize a deferred tax asset in the U.S. of $2.7 billion. We have net impairment reversals of around $1 billion in the quarter, mainly related to Mariner driven by an optimized production profile and higher prices.

鑑於美國業務的強勁業績以及收入將在幾年內納稅的預期，我們現在可以確認美國的遞延稅資產為 27 億美元。本季度我們的淨減值撥回約為 10 億美元，主要與 Mariner 相關，這是由優化的生產狀況和更高的價格推動的。

So let me turn to the segments. In the quarter, our Norwegian upstream business continued to deliver strong adjusted earnings before tax of $14.6 billion. Our international business, excluding the U.S., had solid earnings, driven by Peregrino ramp-up. The U.S. business also delivered solid earnings. However, production there was slightly lower due to a major planned turnaround on Caesar Tonga.

那麼讓我轉向細分市場。本季度，我們的挪威上游業務繼續實現強勁的調整後稅前收益 146 億美元。我們的國際業務（不包括美國）在 Peregrino 增長的推動下獲得了穩健的收益。美國業務也取得了可觀的收益。然而，由於 Caesar Tonga 的重大計劃周轉，那裡的產量略有下降。

Within MMP, we continue to see very strong results, as you heard from Irene from gas and power sales and trading. We had negative derivative timing effects for the quarter. And without those adjusted earnings for MMP would have been positive $1.8 billion, which is well above both the old and the updated guidance.

在 MMP 中，我們繼續看到非常強勁的結果，正如您從天然氣和電力銷售和貿易部門的 Irene 那裡聽到的那樣。我們對本季度產生了負面的衍生時間效應。如果沒有這些調整後的收益，MMP 將達到 18 億美元，遠高於舊的和更新的指導。

The negative derivative effect is mostly within the 78% tax regime, which leads to a positive earnings of $1.9 billion after tax for MMP. And finally, we continue to build our renewables business. And in this space, we see a negative adjusted earnings. Our assets in operations have a positive contribution of $37 million, up from $28 million last quarter.

負衍生效應主要在 78% 的稅收制度內，這導致 MMP 的稅後收益為 19 億美元。最後，我們繼續發展我們的可再生能源業務。在這個領域，我們看到調整後的收益為負。我們的運營資產貢獻了 3700 萬美元，高於上一季度的 2800 萬美元。

And then cash flow. For the full year, we delivered record cash flow from operations of almost $84 billion. And after subtracting taxes, including the additional tax payment last quarter of $10 billion and subtracting investments and capital distribution, we delivered a net cash flow for the year of around $23 billion. For the year, we had organic CapEx of around $8.1 billion, which was somewhat below our guidance, mainly due to phasing of project activity and currency effects.

然後是現金流。全年，我們實現了創紀錄的近 840 億美元的運營現金流。在減去稅款（包括上個季度 100 億美元的額外稅款）以及減去投資和資本分配後，我們今年的淨現金流量約為 230 億美元。今年，我們的有機資本支出約為 81 億美元，略低於我們的指導，這主要是由於項目活動的分階段和貨幣影響。

Based on the strong cash flow, our net debt ratio is further reduced to negative 23.9%. As you know, this is impacted by the lag in tax payments on the NCS. During the first half of 2023, we will pay 3 tax installments related to the NCS of NOK 54 billion each which is lower than indicated last quarter, and this is due to the recent reduction in gas prices.

基於強勁的現金流，我們的淨負債率進一步降至負 23.9%。如您所知，這是受到 NCS 納稅滯後的影響。 2023 年上半年，我們將支付與 NCS 相關的 3 期稅款，每期 540 億挪威克朗，低於上一季度的水平，這是由於最近的天然氣價格下降所致。

So let's move on to our financial framework. We have four important boundaries for how we will develop our company and how we want to drive capital discipline. First, we have value over volume, very, very important. Return on capital is key, and we expect to deliver, on average, more than 15% for the period towards 2030.

那麼讓我們繼續我們的財務框架。對於我們將如何發展我們的公司以及我們希望如何推動資本紀律，我們有四個重要的界限。首先，我們的價值高於數量，這非常非常重要。資本回報率是關鍵，我們預計到 2030 年期間平均可實現 15% 以上的回報率。

Secondly, a solid balance sheet is the basis for all good risk management. And we maintain our guidance of a long-term net debt ratio of 15% to 30%. And then thirdly, our industry is cyclical. And we must be prepared and we will remain robust in a $50 environment. And lastly, of course, we will transition with force in line with our energy transition plan.

其次，穩健的資產負債表是所有良好風險管理的基礎。我們維持 15% 至 30% 的長期淨負債率指引。第三，我們的行業是周期性的。我們必須做好準備，我們將在 50 美元的環境中保持強勁。最後，當然，我們將根據我們的能源轉型計劃強制轉型。

So within this framework, we expect a very strong cash flow over the next decade. Cash flow from operations after tax of around $20 billion per year on average. So we will use this cash flow to create shareholder value. And we will allocate capital towards a competitive capital distribution. We will reinvest in our oil and gas activities in an attractive project portfolio with an average breakeven of $35 per barrel. And then we will continue to invest and grow in our high-quality project portfolio within REN and low-carbon solutions. So this financial framework is, as you understand, very important for us when we prioritize our spending going forward.

因此，在這個框架內，我們預計未來十年會有非常強勁的現金流。稅後運營產生的現金流量平均每年約為 200 億美元。因此，我們將利用這筆現金流來創造股東價值。我們將把資本分配給有競爭力的資本分配。我們將在具有吸引力的項目組合中對我們的石油和天然氣活動進行再投資，平均盈虧平衡點為每桶 35 美元。然後我們將繼續投資和發展我們在 REN 和低碳解決方案中的高質量項目組合。因此，如您所知，當我們優先考慮我們的支出時，這個財務框架對我們非常重要。

Our capital distribution is a central part of our investor proposal, and this is important to us. The step-up is based on our outlook for strong returns and cash flow. The Board of Directors, they have proposed a 50% increase in the ordinary cash dividend to $0.30 per share per quarter, up from $0.20 last quarter. So we expect to increase the annual cash dividend in line with the long-term underlying earnings, and now from a higher base of $0.30 per share.

我們的資本分配是我們投資者提案的核心部分，這對我們很重要。升級是基於我們對強勁回報和現金流的展望。董事會，他們提議將普通現金股息從上一季度的 0.20 美元增加 50% 至每季度每股 0.30 美元。因此，我們預計根據長期基礎收益增加年度現金股息，現在基數較高，為每股 0.30 美元。

In addition, we remain committed to the share buyback program we introduced in 2021 with share buybacks of $1.2 billion annually as part of the long-term capital distribution. This project is subject with the same conditions we set when it was introduced.

此外，我們仍然致力於我們在 2021 年推出的股票回購計劃，作為長期資本分配的一部分，每年回購 12 億美元的股票。該項目受制於我們在推出時設定的相同條件。

We will also continue with an extraordinary cash dividend with an additional share buyback in 2023. The extraordinary cash dividend will be $0.60 per share for the fourth quarter, making total cash dividend $0.90 per quarter. Our clear intention is to continue with this level for the following 3 quarters. The additional $4.8 billion in share buybacks brings the total program to $6 billion for 2023. So in total, our capital distribution for 2023 is $17 billion, up from $13.7 billion last year.

我們還將繼續派發特別現金股息，並在 2023 年進行額外的股票回購。第四季度的特別現金股息將為每股 0.60 美元，使每季度總現金股息為 0.90 美元。我們的明確意圖是在接下來的 3 個季度中繼續保持這一水平。額外的 48 億美元股票回購使 2023 年的總計劃達到 60 億美元。因此，我們 2023 年的資本分配總額為 170 億美元，高於去年的 137 億美元。

The first tranche of this program of $1 billion will start tomorrow, and that will be based on the existing approval that we had from our Annual General Meeting. So as you understand, capital distribution is important to us.

這項 10 億美元計劃的第一筆付款將於明天開始，這將基於我們從年度股東大會獲得的現有批准。因此，正如您所知，資本分配對我們很重要。

We are set to deliver a strong free cash flow of around $25 billion towards 2026 in a $70 reference case. That is the free cash flow. This cash flow has both longevity and is resilient towards lower prices.

在 70 美元的參考案例中，到 2026 年，我們將提供約 250 億美元的強勁自由現金流。那就是自由現金流。這種現金流既長壽又能適應較低的價格。

As you can see, our company will be cash neutral -- cash flow neutral at around $50 per barrel, meaning that cash flow from operations will cover planned investments at those prices. From '24 more than half of our CapEx will be linked to our non-sanctioned projects giving us significant flexibility going forward. We expect to increase our investments in both oil and gas and in renewables and low-carbon solutions.

如您所見，我們公司將保持現金中性——現金流中性，每桶 50 美元左右，這意味著運營產生的現金流將覆蓋以這些價格計算的計劃投資。從 24 世紀開始，我們一半以上的資本支出將與我們未批准的項目相關聯，從而為我們的未來發展提供了極大的靈活性。我們希望增加對石油和天然氣以及可再生能源和低碳解決方案的投資。

I started out with one of my key priorities to ensure that Equinor steers safely through uncertain times and volatility. So this will require strong cost and capital discipline, and we are prepared.

我從我的主要優先事項之一開始，以確保 Equinor 安全地度過不確定的時期和動盪。因此，這將需要嚴格的成本和資本紀律，我們已做好準備。

The picture of Johan Castberg is no coincidence. In 2014, in times of high cost pressure, we postponed Castberg, rework the concept and reduced CapEx by 50% -- by more than 50%.

Johan Castberg 的照片並非巧合。 2014 年，在高成本壓力時期，我們推遲了 Castberg，重新設計概念並將資本支出減少了 50%——超過 50%。

We do the same today. And that is why we decided to postpone the large Barents Sea development Wisting. So we will continue to improve and mature Wisting to make it even better and more robust. To build resilience, we need portfolio flexibility, and we need to execute project efficiently. And as a large operator with a strong investment program, we have exactly that.

我們今天也這樣做。這就是我們決定推遲巴倫支海大型開發項目 Wisting 的原因。因此，我們將繼續改進和成熟 Wisting，使其變得更好、更健壯。為了建立彈性，我們需要投資組合的靈活性，我們需要高效地執行項目。作為擁有強大投資計劃的大型運營商，我們擁有這一點。

We set out on a $4 billion improvement ambition from 2020 to 2025. I am glad to announce that we have already delivered 3 years ahead of schedule. So this was driven mainly by production optimization and utilizing our integrated operations center.

我們制定了從 2020 年到 2025 年 40 億美元的改進目標。我很高興地宣布，我們已經提前 3 年交付。因此，這主要是由生產優化和利用我們的綜合運營中心推動的。

In 2022, we saw an increase in unit production cost to around $6 per barrel driven by higher energy costs and CO2 prices in addition to Peregrino and Snøhvit coming back online. So we expect to be able to maintain at that level or lower towards 2026.

到 2022 年，除了 Peregrino 和 Snøhvit 重新上線之外，我們還看到在能源成本和二氧化碳價格上漲的推動下，單位生產成本增加到每桶 6 美元左右。因此，我們預計到 2026 年能夠維持在該水平或更低水平。

We are working strategically with suppliers to drive efficiency across projects and using standardization to ensure pace and scale. So this has delivered more than 5% lower project facility costs and more than 45% lower drilling costs compared to peers. So we will continue to drive improvements, and Hege and Geir will speak more to this in the breakout session.

我們正在與供應商進行戰略合作，以提高跨項目的效率，並使用標準化來確保速度和規模。因此，與同行相比，這使項目設施成本降低了 5% 以上，鑽井成本降低了 45% 以上。因此，我們將繼續推動改進，Hege 和 Geir 將在分組會議上更多地談到這一點。

And now to our oil and gas project portfolio. Our projects coming on stream over the next 10 years will create large value, low breakevens of around $35 per barrel, high returns of around 30% internal rate of return, short payback time of around 2.5 years and a low-carbon upstream intensity of less than 6-kilo CO2 per barrel, which is less than half of the global industry average.

現在是我們的石油和天然氣項目組合。我們在未來 10 年投產的項目將創造巨大的價值、每桶 35 美元左右的低盈虧平衡點、約 30% 的內部收益率的高回報、約 2.5 年的短投資回收期以及更低的低碳上游強度每桶二氧化碳排放量低於 6 公斤，不到全球行業平均水平的一半。

So through this portfolio, we will deliver strong production and cash flow to 2030 and beyond. We will reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50%, while we are doing exactly that. So we sanctioned many projects in 2022, and this portfolio is to a large extent protected against inflation with contracts already awarded. Our non-sanctioned portfolio is more exposed to cost pressures and changes in supplier markets. So we will continue to work hard to mitigate these pressures. And rest assured, we will not sanction projects that are not good enough just to drive growth.

因此，通過這一投資組合，我們將在 2030 年及以後實現強勁的生產和現金流。我們將把範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量減少 50%，而我們正在這樣做。因此，我們在 2022 年批准了許多項目，並且該投資組合在很大程度上受到保護，可以抵禦已經授予的合同的通貨膨脹。我們未經批准的產品組合更容易受到成本壓力和供應商市場變化的影響。因此，我們將繼續努力減輕這些壓力。請放心，我們不會批准僅僅為了推動增長而不夠好的項目。

We are investing to create as much value as possible. We have an extensive portfolio of renewables and low-carbon projects. We see significant synergies for them to be part of Equinor. First, with access to our strong balance sheet, we can reduce funding costs. We can warehouse risk and we can take on merchant risk. Also, working closely with our marketing and trading business will lift returns.

我們正在投資以創造盡可能多的價值。我們擁有廣泛的可再生能源和低碳項目組合。我們看到他們成為 Equinor 的一部分會產生顯著的協同效應。首先，利用我們強大的資產負債表，我們可以降低融資成本。我們可以承擔倉庫風險，也可以承擔商家風險。此外，與我們的營銷和貿易業務密切合作將提高回報。

And finally, we have, of course, deep competence and execution skills that these projects will capitalize on. So we will maintain a disciplined approach, and we will focus on value over volume, and Pål and Helge will go into this later.

最後，當然，我們擁有深厚的能力和執行技能，這些項目將利用這些技能。因此，我們將保持一種有紀律的方法，我們將專注於價值而不是數量，Pål 和 Helge 將在稍後討論這個問題。

And by the way, I hope you saw Monday's news on Dogger Bank D, where we, together with SSE are looking into a fourth phase of the world's largest offshore wind farm.

順便說一句，我希望你看到了周一關於 Dogger Bank D 的新聞，我們和 SSE 一起正在研究世界上最大的海上風電場的第四階段。

So let me conclude. We expect to invest $10 billion to $11 billion in 2023 making CapEx for '22 and '23 slightly lower than what we said last year. For '24 to '26, we expect annual CapEx of around $13 billion. Important to note that CapEx will be back end loaded in that period.

所以讓我總結一下。我們預計 2023 年將投資 100 億至 110 億美元，使 22 年和 23 年的資本支出略低於我們去年所說的水平。對於 24 到 26 年，我們預計年度資本支出約為 130 億美元。重要的是要注意，資本支出將在此期間後端加載。

The CapEx program is driven by stable investments within oil and gas, growing CapEx in renewables and low-carbon solutions, and that we intend to use our balance sheet more within renewables as sort of an increasing value in that. So that is the driver behind the CapEx program.

CapEx 計劃是由石油和天然氣領域的穩定投資、可再生能源和低碳解決方案中不斷增長的 CapEx 推動的，我們打算更多地在可再生能源中使用我們的資產負債表，以此作為其中一種增加的價值。這就是資本支出計劃背後的驅動力。

In 2023, we expect to deliver 3% production growth in oil and gas. Towards '26, we will continue to grow production, and in 2030, we expect production to be on par with where we are today.

到 2023 年，我們預計石油和天然氣產量將增長 3%。到 26 年，我們將繼續增加產量，到 2030 年，我們預計產量將與今天持平。

So finally, I hope we have shown you how well positioned we are to transition and create value in an investor-friendly way. First, we will deliver strong cash flow and returns over the next decade. Secondly, we are committed to our competitive capital distribution. And thirdly, we will lead the way in the energy transition. And all of this will be done within the firm financial framework that we discussed just a few minutes back.

所以最後，我希望我們已經向您展示了我們在以投資者友好的方式進行轉型和創造價值方面的優勢。首先，我們將在未來十年提供強勁的現金流和回報。其次，我們致力於有競爭力的資本分配。第三，我們將引領能源轉型。所有這一切都將在我們幾分鐘前討論過的穩固財務框架內完成。

So thank you very much for your attention. And then Bård, I would like to hand it back to you to help us through the Q&A. So thank you.

非常感謝您的關注。然後 Bård，我想把它交還給你，幫助我們完成問答。所以謝謝。

Thank you, Anders, Irene and Torgrim. We are then ready to start the Q&A session. The Q&A is reserved for analyst investors here in the room but also those participating on the phone. And to make sure that we have time to cover as many as possible, I ask that you limit yourself to one question each and that you try to keep that crisp. I also ask that you introduce yourself at the start of the questions. So then we can start here at the front, and then I will make a list.

謝謝安德斯、艾琳和托格里姆。然後我們準備開始問答環節。問答專為在場的分析師投資者以及那些通過電話參與的人而設。為確保我們有時間涵蓋盡可能多的問題，我要求您將自己限制在每個問題上，並儘量保持清晰。我還要求您在問題開始時進行自我介紹。那麼我們可以從前面開始，然後我會列一個清單。

It's Martijn Rats, I'm with Morgan Stanley. I wanted to ask you about the European gas markets, if I can only limit it to one topic. So last year, so part of the incremental gas supply from Norway to Europe was at the expense of some oil production because it was gas that was otherwise reinjected. And I was wondering, given the balance of prices at the moment, whether you could reverse that, i.e., less gas, but then at the benefit of oil production.

這是 Martijn Rats，我在摩根士丹利。我想問你關於歐洲天然氣市場的問題，如果我只能把它限制在一個話題上的話。所以去年，從挪威到歐洲的部分增量天然氣供應是以犧牲一些石油生產為代價的，因為它是通過其他方式重新註入的天然氣。我想知道，鑑於目前的價格平衡，你是否可以扭轉這種局面，即減少天然氣，但隨後有利於石油生產。

And secondly, on the same topic, I wanted to ask you, when you mentioned we lowered gas supply to Europe in the fourth quarter because of the lower demand. That sort of sounds a bit like OPEC. It sounds a bit like some sort of market management going home. Now of course, the obvious question would be to ask at what price level would you expect to start doing that going forward? I'm sure you won't answer that question, but I was hoping you could say a few things about the circumstances under which you might sort of be quite dynamic and active. Is it demand? Is it inventories? Is it price? I think that would be very helpful.

其次，關於同一主題，我想問你，當你提到我們在第四季度由於需求下降而降低了對歐洲的天然氣供應時。這聽起來有點像歐佩克。這聽起來有點像某種回家的市場管理。現在當然，一個明顯的問題是問你希望在什麼價格水平開始這樣做？我敢肯定你不會回答這個問題，但我希望你能談談你可能會非常活躍和活躍的情況。是需求嗎？是存貨嗎？是價格嗎？我認為這會很有幫助。

Yes. Thank you, and you prepared for the last question. And we -- as you said, we are injecting -- selling the gas to the market instead of injecting into some the reservoir. This is something that we monitor very, very closely in terms of long-term value creation and making sure that we are developing the reserves and not leaving reserves behind. So this is a kind of trade-off between what is the equivalent liquid price for gas compared to the oil. And if you see that gas prices are lower than the oil prices, and we are seeing that we might lose out on long-term value, we might change this. Because again, this is about creating long-term value.

是的。謝謝你，你為最後一個問題做好了準備。我們 - 正如你所說，我們正在註入 - 將天然氣出售給市場而不是注入一些儲層。這是我們在長期價值創造方面非常、非常密切地監控的事情，並確保我們正在開發儲備而不是留下儲備。因此，這是天然氣與石油的等效液體價格之間的一種權衡。如果你看到天然氣價格低於石油價格，並且我們看到我們可能會失去長期價值，我們可能會改變這一點。因為這又是關於創造長期價值。

But I think it's important to note that gas is still $120 oil equivalent. So it's still a high level of prices. I think with respect to your question on moving gas further out in time. I alluded in my presentation to the fact that we have an increasingly flexible portfolio.

但我認為重要的是要注意天然氣仍然是 120 美元的石油當量。所以它的價格仍然很高。我想關於你關於及時將天然氣轉移到更遠的地方的問題。我在演講中提到我們擁有越來越靈活的投資組合這一事實。

And what do I mean by that? We have flexibility upstream, some of our gas fields are now coming very close to the decline phase, which means that depending on the price signals, whether the demand is needed, we can choose to produce the gas now or we can move it to 1 year ahead of in time or 2 years ahead of time. So it's basically an optimization on prices, but it's reflective of the demand situation in Europe. So we're using the upstream production more or less as a gas stored.

那是什麼意思？我們在上游有靈活性，我們的一些氣田現在非常接近衰退階段，這意味著根據價格信號，是否需要需求，我們可以選擇現在生產天然氣，或者我們可以將其移動到 1提前一年或提前 2 年。所以這基本上是對價格的優化，但它反映了歐洲的需求情況。所以我們或多或少地使用上游生產作為儲存的氣體。

Good. Then we move to you and here in the front next.

好的。然後我們轉到您和前面的這裡。

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. And I want to come back, obviously, $75 billion is an amazing profit number, and you're matching it with $17 billion of cash returns to shareholders. Why is that the right number for '23? Because obviously, you could have phased it more on caps, payouts, higher for longer, but just at a lower level. So I'm just wondering why $17 billion is the right number for this year?

我是巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。而且我想回來，顯然，750 億美元是一個驚人的利潤數字，你正在將它與 170 億美元的股東現金回報相匹配。為什麼這是 23 年的正確數字？因為很明顯，你可以在上限、支出上分階段進行更多的調整，更高的時間更長，但只是在較低的水平上。所以我只是想知道為什麼 170 億美元是今年的正確數字？

And this isn't quite linked to that, but Torgrim, just on the tax side, obviously, the tax guidance for first half is much lower than it was for the second half, I think, in terms of what you actually paid. So I'm just wondering, is that purely a price thing for it?

這與此並沒有太大關係，但是 Torgrim，就稅收方面而言，顯然，就您實際支付的金額而言，我認為上半年的稅收指導遠低於下半年。所以我只是想知道，這純粹是價格問題嗎？

When we look at the capital distribution. Now the shareholder distribution, as we said today, we're increasing the ordinary cash dividend to give the long-term commitment based on the long-term underlying earnings. And together with the $1.2 billion in share buyback, this demonstrates how we feel about the business going forward. Then, as you know, we have a very, very strong balance sheet, and we are a negative net debt ratio. And we have said and as Torgrim said also it today that we are moving towards our long-term guiding of 15 to 30. The balancing between the ordinary dividend and the extraordinary dividend is what we feel is the right for optimal capital structure in the long run. And Torgrim, you got a question?

當我們看資本分配時。現在股東分配，正如我們今天所說，我們正在增加普通現金股息，以根據長期基礎收益做出長期承諾。再加上 12 億美元的股票回購，這表明我們對未來業務的看法。然後，如你所知，我們的資產負債表非常非常強勁，而且我們的淨負債率為負。我們已經說過，正如 Torgrim 今天也說過的那樣，我們正在朝著 15 到 30 的長期指導目標邁進。普通股息和特別股息之間的平衡是我們認為長期最佳資本結構的正確選擇跑步。 Torgrim，你有問題嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. You're right. So since we sort of initially gave expectations for taxes, gas prices have fallen significantly. So that's the reason why we are reducing sort of the cash tax payment expectations for the first half.

是的。謝謝，莉迪亞。你說得對。因此，自從我們最初對稅收做出某種預期後，天然氣價格已大幅下跌。因此，這就是我們降低上半年現金納稅預期的原因。

Let's move to the front here and then Teodor, and then we'll take 1 from the phone after that.

讓我們移到最前面，然後是 Teodor，然後我們將從電話中取出 1。

It's Oswald Clint at Bernstein. It was good to see the enthusiasm from Irene on the customer side. I always look for more of that from Equinor versus your customer-rich competitors. But -- so RWE, ENGIE, the deals you've laid out, you didn't quite talk about expected returns from these chains. Torgrim showed us 30% in the upstream. You said it took a lot of time to strike these deals, but you're selling gas, then blue hydrogen and green hydrogen and there's different pricing going on there, which is quite opaque to us. So maybe just talk about what are these integrated returns that you can tell us that we should expect? And just a linked side question. In those discussions, do you think Russian gas could ever make a way back into Germany?

我是伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。很高興看到 Irene 在客戶方面的熱情。我總是從 Equinor 那裡尋找更多的東西，而不是你的客戶豐富的競爭對手。但是 - 所以 RWE，ENGIE，你已經制定的交易，你並沒有完全談論這些連鎖店的預期回報。 Torgrim 在上游向我們展示了 30%。你說達成這些交易花了很多時間，但你賣的是天然氣，然後是藍氫和綠氫，那裡有不同的定價，這對我們來說是非常不透明的。所以也許只是談談你可以告訴我們我們應該期待的這些綜合回報是什麼？只是一個相關的附帶問題。在這些討論中，您認為俄羅斯天然氣有可能回到德國嗎？

I'll start a little bit, and you can comment on the Russian gas as well. We have progressed very well on both working together with ENGIE and RWE and gradually building up this new value chain that is so important to decarbonize the industry in Germany and Europe. We see that this will be based on contracts for differences in -- particularly for hydrogen and also the ETS price will drive the prices more for the carbon services.

我會開始一點點，你也可以評論俄羅斯的天然氣。我們在與 ENGIE 和 RWE 的合作以及逐步建立這個對德國和歐洲工業脫碳非常重要的新價值鏈方面都取得了很好的進展。我們看到，這將基於差異合同——尤其是氫氣，而且 ETS 價格將進一步推動碳服務的價格。

So we are seeing returns and it's too early to guide on this because we are uniquely positioned, and we're going to really be one of the first ones developing this, but we will see returns in the same range as we say for renewables. But it's too early to say exactly. But we worked really hard to develop these projects and make them as good as possible using the same toolbox as we have used for renewables and oil and gas projects to make these projects profitable.

所以我們看到了回報，現在就此提供指導還為時過早，因為我們處於獨特的位置，我們將真正成為第一批開發此產品的公司之一，但我們將看到與我們所說的可再生能源相同範圍的回報。但現在說確切還為時過早。但是我們非常努力地開發這些項目，並使用我們用於可再生能源和石油和天然氣項目的相同工具箱使它們盡可能好，以使這些項目有利可圖。

I think there are 2 phases with respect to these kind of projects. It's one where we will need subsidies, both for the CO2 value chains and the hydrogen value chains. But I think when you get closer to 2030, the EU ETS prices going to be higher than the cost of capturing and storing CO2. So then you get into a commercially driven environment, and you could expect to see different returns at that point in time. But -- the other thing I would want to highlight compared to the renewables is that the entry barrier into this space is much higher. So if you start out on a level you're more likely to be able to hold on to that level than what we have seen in some of the renewable businesses.

我認為這類項目分為兩個階段。這是我們需要補貼的地方，包括二氧化碳價值鍊和氫價值鏈。但我認為，當你接近 2030 年時，歐盟排放交易體系的價格將高於捕獲和儲存二氧化碳的成本。然後你進入一個商業驅動的環境，你可以期望在那個時間點看到不同的回報。但是——與可再生能源相比，我想強調的另一件事是進入這個領域的門檻要高得多。因此，如果你從一個水平開始，你更有可能保持這個水平，而不是我們在一些可再生能源企業中看到的水平。

Then you asked whether I think Russian gas will come back to Germany. And I would say no, today. But then we also know that politics changes, times move on. So -- but within the -- we have no assumptions in our models of seeing Russian gas coming back to Europe in the next 3 to 4 years. I think what will happen, though, is some of the Russian gas will be rerouted to China via pipeline, they might expand their LNG export capacity or so. So I don't think it necessarily will disappear from the market, but it seems as of now, at least very unlikely that they will hit the German market anytime soon.

然後你問我認為俄羅斯天然氣是否會回到德國。我會說不，今天。但我們也知道政治在變，時代在前進。所以——但在——我們的模型中沒有假設俄羅斯天然氣在未來 3 到 4 年內回到歐洲。不過，我認為將會發生的事情是，一些俄羅斯天然氣將通過管道重新輸送到中國，他們可能會擴大液化天然氣出口能力等。所以我認為它不一定會從市場上消失，但就目前而言，至少它們不太可能很快進入德國市場。

Let's do Teodor Sveen-Nilsen and then we do one from the phone afterwards.

讓我們做 Teodor Sveen-Nilsen，然後我們通過電話做一個。

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, SpareBank 1 Markets. Congrats on very strong results this year. Positive also to see how specific you are on dividends and buybacks. So more specifically on those $17 billion you promise as shareholder returns this year. How sensitive is that to oil and gas prices? We all know that this is a very cyclical and volatile industry. So in a scenario where you see much lower oil and gas prices this year, we'll still stick to the $17 billion? Or is this some kind of sensitive to oil and gas prices.

Teodor Sveen-Nilsen，SpareBank 1 Markets。祝賀今年取得了非常好的成績。還可以看到您對股息和回購的具體程度。因此，更具體地說，你承諾今年將作為股東回報的 170 億美元。這對石油和天然氣價格有多敏感？我們都知道這是一個週期性和波動性很強的行業。因此，在今年石油和天然氣價格大幅下跌的情況下，我們仍會堅持 170 億美元？或者這是對石油和天然氣價格的某種敏感。

As I said in my speech, is that this is the number we're setting out for this year. This board clear intention to keep the same dividend level for the next 3 quarters. And as you see, we have a very, very strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents around $45 billion. So this is also about putting us closer to the long-term guiding of the 15% to 30% net debt range.

正如我在演講中所說，這是我們今年設定的數字。該董事會明確打算在未來 3 個季度保持相同的股息水平。如您所見，我們的資產負債表非常非常強勁，現金和現金等價物約為 450 億美元。因此，這也是為了讓我們更接近 15% 至 30% 淨債務範圍的長期指導。

Can I drill a bit on this? I think ordinary cash dividend and the ordinary share buyback program, that is linked to outlook for the future, the $20 billion cash flow from operations and the return on capital employed. The extraordinary part is related to money already earned, and that is actually sitting on our balance sheet currently. So that is $45 billion in cash and cash equivalents. So that is linked to the extraordinary part and it is not linked to earnings this year or future earnings.

我可以鑽一下這個嗎？我認為普通現金股息和普通股回購計劃與未來前景、200 億美元的運營現金流和所用資本回報率相關。非凡的部分與已經賺到的錢有關，這實際上是目前在我們的資產負債表上。因此，這是 450 億美元的現金和現金等價物。因此，這與非凡部分有關，與今年或未來的收益無關。

Let's take one from the phone and then I'll give the microphone to Biraj in the middle of the room for the next one after that. John Olaisen, ABG.

讓我們從電話中取一個，然後我會把麥克風交給房間中間的 Biraj，然後再接下一個。約翰·奧萊森，ABG。

You have changed your guidance for renewable volumes from gigawatt hours -- the gigawatt in installed capacity to terawatt hours of production. And I'm wondering maybe a little bit about this. Firstly, is the terawatt hour guidance net number to you? Is it a gross number? Secondly, why did you change the guidance? And then thirdly, this chart of power generation of terawatt hours between now and 2030, is that based on the assets you have today? Or is it assuming that you win acreage also in the future license around or do acquisitions?

您已將可再生能源量的指導從千兆瓦時——裝機容量的千兆瓦更改為生產的太瓦時。我想知道關於這個的一點點。首先，太瓦時的指導淨值是給你的嗎？是總數嗎？其次，你為什麼改變指南？第三，這張從現在到 2030 年的太瓦時發電圖表，是基於您今天擁有的資產嗎？還是假設您在未來的許可或收購中也贏得了種植面積？

Yes. I'll start on this one. And I know Pål is also eager to jump in on this one. But first of all, the 12 to 16 ambition for renewables of 12 to 16 gigawatt remains firm. We have already accessed the 14 of this. So we are on the path to deliver on this. But gigawatts is just a potential power and terawatt hours is really the power we will produce, which is a basis for future cash flow. And when we discuss to develop the renewable business further, we say that now we want to really measure ourselves on how we develop as in power generation. Remembering that different sources of renewables have different capacity to produce a different amount of power. So Pål might be allude a little bit how we have developed portfolio as well over the last year.

是的。我將從這個開始。我知道 Pål 也渴望參與其中。但首先，12 至 16 年可再生能源 12 至 16 吉瓦的雄心仍然堅定。我們已經訪問了其中的 14 個。因此，我們正在努力實現這一目標。但吉瓦只是一種潛在的力量，而太瓦時實際上是我們將產生的力量，這是未來現金流的基礎。當我們討論進一步發展可再生能源業務時，我們說現在我們要真正衡量自己在發電方面的發展情況。請記住，不同來源的可再生能源產生不同電量的能力不同。所以 Pål 可能會提到我們在過去一年中如何開發投資組合。

Yes. Thank you. So I don't think we have made a deliberate choice of changing our guidance. So, I think we've actually been providing more information than what we've been doing in the past. And our starting point is that we have built a very strong position in offshore wind. But during very heated markets over the last few years, what we have been doing is actually being a net seller of shares in offshore wind and monetizing in that market.

是的。謝謝。所以我不認為我們有意選擇改變我們的指南。所以，我認為我們實際上提供了比過去更多的信息。我們的出發點是我們在海上風電領域建立了非常強大的地位。但在過去幾年非常火爆的市場中，我們一直在做的實際上是成為海上風電股票的淨賣家，並在該市場中獲利。

We have also seen that we have a portfolio that was in need of a bit of diversification. So that is why you have seen us make bolt-on acquisitions into onshore platforms in Poland with Wento with a 1.6 gigawatt pipeline and with BeGreen in Denmark that closed only last week. So we have been diversifying our portfolio. So what you see in the installed capacity numbers is a higher element of onshore volumes and solar PV, in particular, than what you have seen in the past that comes on top of that strong offshore wind portfolio.

我們還看到，我們的投資組合需要進行一些多元化。因此，這就是為什麼你看到我們對波蘭的陸上平台進行補強收購，Wento 擁有 1.6 吉瓦的管道，丹麥的 BeGreen 僅在上週關閉。因此，我們一直在多元化我們的投資組合。因此，您在裝機容量數字中看到的是陸上容量和太陽能光伏的更多元素，特別是比您過去在強大的海上風電組合之上看到的更多。

So the 14 gigawatts of installed capacity roughly corresponds to the lower end of the production range that we have given today. But given that we now have a portfolio, we also see quite a bit of upside in bringing merchant onshore volumes where we can trade and market these volumes in the market compared to locked-in long-term PPAs that we have on the offshore wind side. So to me, it is a way of demonstrating that we are putting value over volume in the way that we are prioritizing our portfolio.

因此，14 吉瓦的裝機容量大致相當於我們今天給出的生產範圍的下限。但鑑於我們現在擁有一個投資組合，與我們在海上風電方面擁有的鎖定長期購電協議相比，我們也看到了將商戶陸上交易量帶到市場上進行交易和營銷的相當大的優勢.所以對我來說，這是一種證明我們在優先考慮我們的投資組合的方式中將價值置於數量之上的一種方式。

It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. I wanted to ask about free cash flow deployment. So Torgrim, you were very clear that the CapEx increase was back-end loaded. And you're in somewhat of a unique position as a company given the strong macro environment last year. You're sitting on $20 billion of net cash and so on. But could you just talk about why you're choosing to make that CapEx profile back-end loaded? Is it that you're concerned about supply chain inflation and so on? Is it they maturing the projects?

我是 Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。我想問一下自由現金流的部署。所以 Torgrim，你很清楚資本支出的增加是後端加載的。鑑於去年強勁的宏觀環境，您作為一家公司處於某種獨特的地位。你坐擁 200 億美元的淨現金等等。但是你能談談為什麼你選擇讓 CapEx 配置文件後端加載嗎？您是否擔心供應鏈通脹等問題？他們正在使項目成熟嗎？

And maybe you could also touch on policy because there is a narrative that the U.S. is obviously pushing ahead with the IRA and so on. And your carbon capture profile and options are largely European focused. I just wanted to get your thoughts on the regulatory environment there as well. So it's 2 questions. Thank you.

也許你也可以談談政策，因為有一種說法是美國顯然正在推進愛爾蘭共和軍等等。您的碳捕獲概況和選項主要集中在歐洲。我也想了解您對那裡的監管環境的看法。所以這是2個問題。謝謝。

Yes, I'll start a little bit on CapEx, and then Torgrim, and you can follow up. So we have a CapEx guiding, which is very much in line with previous guidance. And with some smaller adjustments, which is from year-to-year and project phasing, we are fairly stable on the oil and gas. So the increase you're seeing and the increase with 13% on average, which is back-end loaded, is really the increase in renewables and is also a potential increase where we will finance renewals over the balance sheet. Regarding -- we will never sanction projects before they are good enough. And that's why also we will see that there are some flexibility to when we will sanction these projects, and there can be small adjustment, and that's why we're guiding in our range here going forward.

是的，我將從資本支出開始，然後是 Torgrim，您可以跟進。所以我們有一個資本支出指南，這與之前的指南非常一致。通過逐年和項目分階段進行一些較小的調整，我們在石油和天然氣方面相當穩定。因此，您看到的增長和平均 13% 的增長（後端加載）實際上是可再生能源的增長，也是我們將在資產負債表上為更新提供資金的潛在增長。關於 - 我們永遠不會在項目足夠好之前批准它們。這就是為什麼我們也會看到我們何時批准這些項目有一些靈活性，並且可以進行小幅調整，這就是為什麼我們在我們的範圍內進行指導。

Yes, IRA. And we do have projects both in Europe where we kind of have a very, very good, and I think Irene said it very clearly, where we have a strong position, which is with higher barriers to enter. And then we have also projects in U.S., but quite fierce competition. So maybe you want to say a little bit of what we're doing in the U.S. And if you have anything to add on CapEx, Torgrim, please let me know.

是的，愛爾蘭共和軍。我們確實在歐洲都有項目，在那裡我們有一個非常非常好的項目，我認為艾琳說得非常清楚，我們在歐洲擁有強大的地位，進入壁壘更高。然後我們在美國也有項目，但是競爭相當激烈。所以也許你想談談我們在美國所做的事情。如果你有任何關於資本支出的補充，Torgrim，請告訴我。

I can do that. I think we always chase where we have opportunities where we have a competitive advantage. And clearly, in Europe, we have the infrastructure, we have the customer relationships, et cetera. The other place where we see some synergies with the existing business is in the U.S. And for some time, we've been chasing couple of opportunities, bigger ones in tri-state area in the U.S. and also an ammonia export projects. These projects overnight with the IRA became much more attractive, and we continue to mature those.

我能做到。我認為我們總是在我們有競爭優勢的地方追逐我們有機會的地方。顯然，在歐洲，我們擁有基礎設施、客戶關係等。我們看到與現有業務產生協同效應的另一個地方是在美國。一段時間以來，我們一直在追逐幾個機會，在美國三州地區尋求更大的機會，還有一個氨出口項目。這些項目與 IRA 一夜之間變得更具吸引力，我們繼續使這些項目成熟。

But Europe was way ahead of the U.S. when it came to incentives for a while. And then the U.S. moved ahead. You saw Ursula von der Leyen out there saying, we're going to have to up our game. So I think this is not going to be a static picture. You're going to see the supportive -- support machines change over time. So stick to where we really have a competitive advantage, but clearly, quite excited about what goes on in the U.S. right now.

但在激勵措施方面，歐洲有一段時間遙遙領先於美國。然後美國向前邁進了一步。你看到 Ursula von der Leyen 在那裡說，我們將不得不提高我們的比賽水平。所以我認為這不會是一張靜態圖片。你會看到支持——支持機器隨著時間的推移而改變。所以堅持我們真正擁有競爭優勢的地方，但顯然，對美國現在發生的事情感到非常興奮。

Yes, on CapEx, a very important question. So -- it all starts with that. We are driven by maximizing the value creation of that investment program. So we have deliberately taken some decision to say, okay, these projects needs to be worked more and they will come later. And I think this thing, as I mentioned, is sort of one example of that.

是的，關於資本支出，這是一個非常重要的問題。所以——一切都從那開始。我們的目標是最大化該投資計劃的價值創造。所以我們特意做出了一些決定，好吧，這些項目需要更多地工作，它們會稍後出現。正如我所提到的，我認為這件事就是其中的一個例子。

The other one is that in a big portfolio where we are an operator, clearly, we need to manage execution capability and inflation as such. And we have seen inflations last year, quite significant, but we really, really need to manage that, meaning that we need to see to that we have a good portfolio over years to manage that.

另一個是，在我們作為運營商的大型投資組合中，顯然，我們需要管理執行能力和通脹本身。去年我們看到了通貨膨脹，相當嚴重，但我們真的、真的需要對其進行管理，這意味著我們需要確保我們多年來擁有良好的投資組合來管理它。

And you saw from our presentation, $35 breakeven of the upstream project portfolio, that has remained rather constant over the years despite that we have had inflation in the period. So that's sort of a KPI or matrix to follow. That is really where we see that we can create value by actually profiling the investments in the way that we do.

你從我們的演講中看到，上游項目組合的盈虧平衡點為 35 美元，儘管我們在此期間出現了通貨膨脹，但多年來一直保持相當穩定。所以這是要遵循的 KPI 或矩陣。這就是我們真正看到我們可以通過以我們的方式實際分析投資來創造價值的地方。

So we're not driven by volume targets, but driven by value. I think I've said it 10 times now. So that's for sure.

因此，我們不是受數量目標驅動，而是受價值驅動。我想我已經說了 10 遍了。所以這是肯定的。

That's good. One in the back there, and then we'll take 1 more on the phone and continue here in the room.

那挺好的。一個在後面，然後我們再接一個電話，然後在房間裡繼續。

It's Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. I really welcome the clarity you've given on the capital distribution front. But maybe Torgrim, I'll challenge you here a little bit because you're presenting a $50 breakeven after CapEx and I think on your 2023 cash flow outlook, the $17 billion of cash returns are going to be covered roughly where we are right now in $80 plus/minus gas prices where we are right now. So it looks like you're giving yourself quite some time redistributing your balance sheet strength, to pick up your comment earlier. So just wonder whether you can give us a bit more color in terms of how much time you have to reallocate that balance sheet strength that you've accumulated.

我是美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent。我真的很歡迎你在資本分配方面的澄清。但也許 Torgrim，我會在這裡稍微挑戰一下你，因為你在資本支出後提出了 50 美元的盈虧平衡，我認為根據你的 2023 年現金流前景，170 億美元的現金回報將大致涵蓋我們現在的水平我們現在所處的汽油價格為 80 美元上下。所以看起來你給了自己相當多的時間來重新分配你的資產負債表實力，以便更早地接受你的評論。所以只是想知道你是否可以在你需要多少時間重新分配你積累的資產負債表實力方面給我們更多的顏色。

And of course, my second question is the least popular one because I know you're not going to want to answer it, but I'll ask it anyway. What role does your M&A team play here in having a claim on that balance sheet strength? And maybe Anders, if you or if one of you want to give us a little bit of your view on what the market currently looks like. This is no longer a 0-interest world. What does the M&A market look like to you?

當然，我的第二個問題是最不受歡迎的一個，因為我知道你不會想回答它，但我還是會問的。您的併購團隊在擁有資產負債表實力方面扮演什麼角色？也許安德斯，如果你或你們中的一個人想給我們一點你對市場當前情況的看法。這不再是一個零興趣的世界。在您看來，併購市場是什麼樣的？

Yes, I can start with that a little bit. As we have said many times, M&A is always in our toolbox. And you have seen what we have done in the past. You have seen how we have been optimizing our oil and gas portfolio both by acquiring some and divesting some. Always constantly driving to make sure that the robustness of the company will increase by doing so. Of course -- and then also for the renewables with Wento and BeGreen, as Pål said, it was a time we felt it was very, very expensive, but then with increased inflations and interest rates we have made some acquisition and also with Triton a bolt-on acquisition there.

是的，我可以從那一點開始。正如我們多次說過的，併購始終在我們的工具箱中。你已經看到了我們過去所做的事情。您已經看到我們如何通過收購和剝離一些來優化我們的石油和天然氣投資組合。始終不斷地努力，以確保公司的穩健性會因此而增加。當然——還有 Wento 和 BeGreen 的可再生能源，正如 Pål 所說，那段時間我們覺得它非常、非常昂貴，但隨著通貨膨脹和利率的上升，我們進行了一些收購，並且還與 Triton 進行了收購在那裡進行補強收購。

Going forward, I don't going to comment on it, but we follow this market very closely. But to follow my CFO, we will value over volume driven also when we use the M&A market. And then Torgrim, he challenged you and I know you want to comment as well.

展望未來，我不打算對此發表評論，但我們非常密切地關注這個市場。但是按照我的首席財務官的說法，當我們使用併購市場時，我們也會重視數量驅動。然後是 Torgrim，他挑戰了你，我知道你也想發表評論。

A very important question and a great question. And I thought you actually had 2, because we talked about $50 breakeven on the slide. I just want to explain that a little bit to you. Because we are building a company that will function from A to C in a $50 environment, meaning that sort of the capital distribution that we have committed to, the ordinary part of it is going to work in a lower price environment as such. So that is very, very important.

一個非常重要的問題，也是一個很好的問題。我以為你實際上有 2 個，因為我們在幻燈片上談到了 50 美元的收支平衡。我只想向你解釋一下。因為我們正在建立一家將在 50 美元的環境中從 A 到 C 運作的公司，這意味著我們承諾的那種資本分配，它的普通部分將在較低的價格環境中運作。所以這非常非常重要。

And again, we have significant flexibility in managing lower prices as we are a large operator, and we are the captain of our own investment program, if you like. So I think that is sort of very important to understand.

同樣，由於我們是一家大型運營商，我們在管理低價方面具有很大的靈活性，如果你願意的話，我們是我們自己投資計劃的負責人。所以我認為理解這一點非常重要。

The second one today or this year, we are planning on a negative net cash flow. And I'm glad for that. And it's probably strange to hear a CFO saying that, but with a $17 billion cash distribution, we clearly planned for a negative net cash and then moving towards a more optimal capital distribution. So we will -- we aim 15 to 30, and that's what will happen this year is on its way to that.

今天或今年的第二個，我們計劃出現負淨現金流。我很高興。聽到一位首席財務官這樣說可能會很奇怪，但是有了 170 億美元的現金分配，我們明確計劃了負淨現金，然後轉向更優化的資本分配。所以我們將 - 我們的目標是 15 到 30，這就是今年將要發生的事情。

And then clearly, the balance sheet will remain very robust and solid. And clearly, we will be careful as always. And I think you might want to look at the past and see the capital discipline under the CEO over the last few years. And clearly, we want to keep that intact.

然後很明顯，資產負債表將保持非常穩健。顯然，我們會一如既往地小心。我想你可能想看看過去，看看過去幾年 CEO 領導下的資本紀律。很明顯，我們希望保持原樣。

And just to add, 2 years ago, I presented the worst results from Equinor, and 2 years later, the best result ever. This shows the volatility in this market, and that's why we're focusing on the robustness. And Irene, you're eager to answer?

補充一下，2 年前，我展示了 Equinor 的最差結果，而 2 年後，我展示了有史以來最好的結果。這顯示了這個市場的波動性，這就是我們關注穩健性的原因。艾琳，你急於回答？

No, no, I just wanted to draw your attention to the M&A we have done within MMP, because we acquired Danske, as I said, then we acquired Triton and both of them have been tremendously good investments. In the Danske Commodities, the results since the acquisition have paid back the acquisition fee multiple times and Triton was actually paid back twice in the course of 4 months. So Yes.

不，不，我只是想提請您注意我們在 MMP 內部進行的併購，因為正如我所說，我們收購了 Danske，然後我們收購了 Triton，它們都是非常好的投資。在 Danske Commodities 中，自收購以來的結果已多次償還收購費用，而 Triton 實際上在 4 個月內償還了兩次。所以是的。

Let's take the 1 on the phone. And can I ask you to limit it to 1 question so that we can cover as many as possible. Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

讓我們接聽電話中的 1。我能否要求您將它限制為 1 個問題，以便我們可以涵蓋盡可能多的問題。來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Perfect. And again, congratulations on the record cash return to shareholders for 2023. I had 1 question. When I look at the delivery of mega projects in oil and gas, the industry from 2014 until COVID hit, was in a consistent trend of improvement, a quicker time to market, shorter delivery and everything was coming on stream more or less on time and on budget. Then through COVID the main problem were with the yards in Asia. How do you see the outlook for delivery? Where do you see the tightness in the coming years?

完美的。再次祝賀 2023 年創紀錄的股東現金回報。我有 1 個問題。當我查看石油和天然氣大型項目的交付時，從 2014 年到 COVID 來襲，該行業一直處於改進趨勢，上市時間更快，交付時間更短，一切都或多或少地按時投產，在預算上。然後通過 COVID，主要問題出在亞洲的船廠。您如何看待交付前景？您如何看待未來幾年的緊張局勢？

And looking specifically at 2 of your most complex mega projects, Castberg and Bacalhau, do you still feel confident those can come on stream on time?

看看你們最複雜的兩個大型項目，Castberg 和 Bacalhau，你們是否仍然相信它們能夠按時投產？

Thank you very much. That was actually a very good summary of what happened in the project markets from 2014 and onwards. Yes, I think all projects were hampered by the COVID and not only the yards in Asia, but also I think the yards worldwide and also in Norway. We are recovering from that now. And Geir and his team are making really good progress. We are on plan with the Castberg project, but the Bacalhau project in Brazil will be delivered during 2025.

非常感謝。這實際上是對 2014 年及以後項目市場發生的事情的一個很好的總結。是的，我認為所有項目都受到了 COVID 的阻礙，不僅是亞洲的船廠，而且我認為全球和挪威的船廠也是如此。我們現在正在從中恢復過來。 Geir 和他的團隊正在取得非常好的進展。我們正在計劃 Castberg 項目，但巴西的 Bacalhau 項目將在 2025 年交付。

Thank you again for the presentation. If you don't mind, I would like to go back on CapEx. And if you could provide some color on the breakdown, it's true that you are being consistent. We have not seen massive change in terms of guidance for organic CapEx. But at the same time, in the past year, we have seen Equinor exit in Russia. You referred to the inflation recession act as an impulse basically for investments.

再次感謝您的介紹。如果你不介意，我想回到資本支出上。而且，如果您可以為細分提供一些顏色，那麼您確實是一致的。我們沒有看到有機資本支出指導方面的巨大變化。但與此同時，在過去的一年裡，我們看到 Equinor 退出了俄羅斯。你提到通貨膨脹衰退基本上是投資的衝動。

Can you explain -- and of course, I should add that Wisting as well has been delayed for a few years. So can you explain basically what replaced the exit from Russia in terms of contribution to CapEx and the removal of Wisting to basically lead us to this level, which is sort of consistent with what you guided for before?

你能解釋一下——當然，我應該補充一點，Wisting 也被推遲了幾年。那麼，您能否基本上解釋一下，在對資本支出的貢獻和 Wisting 的移除方面，是什麼取代了俄羅斯的退出，從而基本上將我們帶到了這個水平，這與您之前的指導是一致的？

Okay. Thank you very much. So yes, the guiding this year is actually, I would say, consistent and quite consistent with what we have said earlier. For '22 and '23, if you summarize those 2 years, it's actually slightly below what we said last year. Then sort of in the -- going forward, we are actually extending the period with one year, and we say that CapEx is back-end loaded. So in reality, it is sort of the same CapEx level that we know are putting forward despite that we have seen sort of inflation over the years. We have built in future inflation assumptions. So we are quite comfortable that these are sort of numbers that are strong.

好的。非常感謝。所以是的，我想說，今年的指導實際上與我們之前所說的一致且非常一致。對於 22 年和 23 年，如果你總結這 2 年，它實際上略低於我們去年所說的。然後有點在 - 展望未來，我們實際上將期限延長一年，我們說資本支出是後端加載的。因此，實際上，儘管多年來我們看到了某種程度的通貨膨脹，但我們所知道的資本支出水平與我們所提出的相同。我們建立了未來的通貨膨脹假設。因此，我們很高興這些數字很強勁。

Again, I mean, the CapEx program is driven by oil and gas, which is flat over years. So we continue to invest on the same rate. We are growing our investments within renewables and low-carbon solutions. And then we aim to use our balance sheet more in financing our renewables business. Due to that increasing interest rate makes that more sensible. So that will be to Pål's portfolio, and that will be reported as CapEx on equity terms that will actually change the reporting on the investments. So those are the key elements. So it is actually fairly consistent with what we have said earlier.

同樣，我的意思是，資本支出計劃是由多年來持平的石油和天然氣驅動的。所以我們繼續以同樣的利率投資。我們正在增加對可再生能源和低碳解決方案的投資。然後我們的目標是更多地利用我們的資產負債表為我們的可再生能源業務融資。由於利率上升，這變得更加明智。所以這將是 Pål 的投資組合，並且將根據股權條款報告為資本支出，這實際上會改變投資報告。所以這些是關鍵要素。所以它實際上與我們之前所說的相當一致。

Can I ask about the long-term oil and gas production profile? The one you show to 2030 is sort of flat to down 15%. So what defines that range? And just to link it back to value, what's the $20 billion cash flow linked from a volume standpoint?

我能問一下長期的石油和天然氣生產概況嗎？您顯示的到 2030 年的數據持平至下降 15%。那麼是什麼定義了這個範圍呢？只是為了將它與價值聯繫起來，從數量的角度來看，200 億美元的現金流量是多少？

The $20 billion cash flow from operation after tax is really based on both the production profile. We've shown on the oil and gas. And also with the contribution from Irene and her team as we have increased the guiding there. And gradually, also towards 2030, we will also see more and more coming in from renewables. So that is the basis for those USD 20 billion there. And then your first question was?

稅後運營產生的 200 億美元現金流實際上是基於兩種生產情況。我們已經展示了石油和天然氣。還有艾琳和她的團隊的貢獻，因為我們增加了那裡的指導。逐漸地，同樣到 2030 年，我們也將看到越來越多的能源來自可再生能源。這就是那裡 200 億美元的基礎。然後你的第一個問題是？

What defines the range?

什麼定義了範圍？

Would you have a range of productions profile?

你有一系列的製作資料嗎？

Yes. So of course, this is -- we are now constantly developing new resources on the Norwegian continental shelf, for instance, and sanctioning new projects. We have an exploration program. And we are using quite a lot of sanctioning smaller project will tie into existing facilities. So there are always a little bit some uncertainty, but Kjetil heading of the Norwegian continental shelf. He can explain a little bit how he is working now to ensure that he keep the production on Norwegian continental shelf at a high level to 2030 and beyond.

是的。因此，當然，這是——我們現在正在不斷開發挪威大陸架上的新資源，例如，並批准新項目。我們有一個探索計劃。我們正在使用相當多的批准較小的項目將綁定到現有設施。所以總是有一些不確定性，但 Kjetil 是挪威大陸架的航向。他可以稍微解釋一下他現在是如何工作的，以確保他將挪威大陸架上的產量保持在 2030 年及以後的高水平。

Yes, that I could do for hours. But very quickly, the variation between the upper and lower bound is basically the project that we need to sanction in the next 3, 4 years, that is difference in the production. So it's a project that we're sitting on. It's not a lot of exploration. I don't think there is any in that time frame. So it's basically the project that we need to sanction the next 3, 4 years, which is the difference.

是的，我可以做幾個小時。但是很快，上下限之間的差異基本上就是我們在未來三四年內需要批准的項目，即生產差異。所以這是我們正在進行的一個項目。這不是很多探索。我認為在那個時間範圍內沒有。所以這基本上是我們需要在未來 3 年、4 年內批准的項目，這就是不同之處。

It's Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. I just had a quick question on gas prices. So normally, we think about gas prices on maybe an annual basis. But if Europe comes out this winter with significantly higher storage volumes, do you have a view kind of on a quarterly basis how that gas price could pay out? Could we go significantly lower than where we are today? And then secondly, how would that impact your extraordinary distributions if gas prices do go significantly lower through the middle of the year?

我是法國巴黎銀行的 Paul Redman。我只是有一個關於汽油價格的快速問題。所以通常情況下，我們可能每年都會考慮天然氣價格。但是，如果今年冬天歐洲出現明顯更高的存儲量，您是否有某種按季度計算的天然氣價格如何支付的觀點？我們能比今天低得多嗎？其次，如果天然氣價格在年中確實大幅下跌，這將如何影響您的特別分配？

I will start and then Irene can talk more about. But as Torgrim said very, very clearly earlier, the extraordinary distribution for 2023 is based on past earnings and it's the Board's clear intention to have the same level of dividend, ordinary and extraordinary for the next 3 quarters.

我先開始，然後 Irene 可以多談談。但正如 Torgrim 早些時候非常非常清楚地所說，2023 年的特別分配是基於過去的收益，董事會明確打算在接下來的 3 個季度中獲得相同水平的股息，普通股和非常股。

Maybe on the gas market, it seems like the market has found some kind of equilibrium right now, but -- and taking it through the next summer. But it's important to remember that come November, storages are full. They were full in November last year as well. So it's basically a reset. And you're looking at the next year, again, needing to attract more LNG and reduce demand even further. So I think the best thing we can say is that we do expect volatility and also that the uncertainty or the upside is higher than the downside given what we have seen.

也許在天然氣市場上，市場現在似乎已經找到了某種平衡，但是 - 並在明年夏天保持平衡。但重要的是要記住，到了 11 月，庫存已滿。去年11月他們也滿了。所以這基本上是一個重置。並且您再次關註明年，需要吸引更多液化天然氣並進一步減少需求。因此，我認為我們能說的最好的事情是，我們確實預計會出現波動，而且鑑於我們所看到的情況，不確定性或上行空間高於下行空間。

We are a bit on over time, but I feel bad because I've overlooked this side for a while. So if you take one final here.

隨著時間的推移，我們有點過時了，但我感覺很糟糕，因為我有一段時間忽略了這一面。所以如果你在這裡參加決賽。

Anders from SEB. Will you leave profitable barrels behind in your energy transition journey?

來自 SEB 的安德斯。在您的能源轉型之旅中，您會留下有利可圖的桶嗎？

No. We don't plan to do that. We plan to develop the oil -- the energy transition needs to be a balanced transition. So that means that oil and gas will play a role in the energy transition. And as we have demonstrated today that we will continue developing the oil and gas business. I think we have 20 years of resources in our books meaning that Philippe and Kjetil will continue to develop those resources together with Geir, bring them into real projects, implementing technologies and have a target of these breakevens that Torgrim talked about, 35 in breakeven. So we will continue to mature reserves and not leave valuable barrels behind in the energy transition.

不，我們不打算這樣做。我們計劃開發石油——能源轉型需要平衡轉型。因此，這意味著石油和天然氣將在能源轉型中發揮作用。正如我們今天所證明的那樣，我們將繼續發展石油和天然氣業務。我認為我們的書中有 20 年的資源，這意味著 Philippe 和 Kjetil 將繼續與 Geir 一起開發這些資源，將它們帶入實際項目，實施技術，並製定 Torgrim 談到的 35 年盈虧平衡的目標。因此，我們將繼續使儲備成熟，在能源轉型過程中不會留下有價值的桶。

Very good. I think we then need to close this session. I will leave the word to you to do that Anders. I just want to remind you all that you are invited to lunch in the area outside of here afterwards and that we will start the breakout sessions, quarter past 2. So Anders, if you want to say any concluding remarks.

非常好。我認為我們需要結束本次會議。我會把話留給你去做，安德斯。我只是想提醒大家，之後我們將邀請你們在外面的區域共進午餐，我們將在 2 點一刻開始分組討論。安德斯，如果你想發表任何總結性意見。

I just wanted to say that thank you very much for coming. I think we have presented a very strong outlook for Equinor, both for 2023, but also into the future. So thank you for coming, and have a good lunch.

我只是想說，非常感謝你的到來。我認為我們對 Equinor 的 2023 年和未來前景都非常樂觀。謝謝你的光臨，祝你午餐愉快。