Equinor ASA (EQNR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Equinor Analyst Q3 call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，下午好，女士們，先生們。謝謝你的支持。歡迎並感謝您加入 Equinor Analyst Q3 電話會議。 （操作員說明）

It's my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mads Holm, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我很高興，現在我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Mads Holm 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm very pleased to welcome you to the presentation of Equinor's third quarter results call. I'm Mads Holm, Head of Investor Relations. It's my great pleasure to introduce Torgrim Reitan, who, as you know, started as CFO just a few weeks ago. For those of you unfamiliar with Torgrim, he has been with the company for 27 years and held several management position in Norway, the United States and the United Kingdom. His most recent position was Senior Vice President for Finance and Control in renewables. Torgrim was a member of the Corporate Executive Committee for 10 years, first as CFO, then as Executive Vice President for Development and Production USA and later the combined international business. With strong experience from upstream, trading and operations of natural gas and renewables, we are delighted to welcome Torgrim back as CFO to present Equinor's results and outlook, and to engage in the important dialogue with analysts and investor community.

謝謝你，運營商。女士們，先生們，我很高興歡迎你們參加 Equinor 第三季度業績電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Mads Holm。我很高興介紹 Torgrim Reitan，正如你所知，幾週前他剛開始擔任首席財務官。對於那些不熟悉 Torgrim 的人，他已經在公司工作了 27 年，並在挪威、美國和英國擔任過多個管理職位。他最近的職位是負責可再生能源財務和控制的高級副總裁。 Torgrim 擔任公司執行委員會成員已有 10 年，先是擔任首席財務官，然後擔任美國開發和生產執行副總裁，後來擔任合併國際業務的執行副總裁。憑藉在天然氣和可再生能源的上游、交易和運營方面的豐富經驗，我們很高興歡迎 Torgrim 重新擔任首席財務官，介紹 Equinor 的業績和展望，並與分析師和投資者社區進行重要對話。

Torgrim will take us through the results, and then we will open up for questions as usual. We aim to complete the call within the hour.

Torgrim 將向我們介紹結果，然後我們將像往常一樣開放提問。我們的目標是在一小時內完成通話。

So with that, let me pass straight over to Torgrim for the presentation. Thank you very much.

因此，讓我直接轉到 Torgrim 進行演示。非常感謝。

Thank you, Mads, for that kind introduction, and good morning, everyone. And very good to be with you. And I do look forward to meet you face-to-face at a later point in time. So it's a privilege to step into this role in a company so financially solid with such a rich and attractive investment portfolio and with a clear plan for transition.

謝謝 Mads 的精彩介紹，大家早上好。很高興和你在一起。我確實期待在稍後的某個時間與您面對面見面。因此，能夠在一家財務如此穩固、投資組合如此豐富且具有吸引力以及明確的轉型計劃的公司擔任這一職務是一種榮幸。

Coming into this role, I have 2 main priorities. The first is to ensure that Equinor steered safely through these uncertain times. We see high geopolitical uncertainty, weaker prospects for global economic growth and high volatility in the markets we operate. And I want Equinor to come out of this as a stronger company. My second priority, but equally important, is to support the transition for Equinor to be a leading company as the energy transition develops.

擔任這個角色後，我有兩個主要優先事項。首先是確保 Equinor 安全度過這些不確定的時期。我們看到地緣政治的高度不確定性、全球經濟增長前景疲軟以及我們經營的市場的高波動性。我希望 Equinor 成為一家更強大的公司。我的第二個優先事項，但同樣重要的是，隨著能源轉型的發展，支持 Equinor 成為領先公司的轉型。

So my role will be to ensure that we continue to invest and optimize the portfolio in oil and gas as well as grow and develop within renewable and low carbon solutions, ensuring that we focus on quality and value creation.

因此，我的職責是確保我們繼續投資和優化石油和天然氣投資組合，並在可再生和低碳解決方案中發展壯大，確保我們專注於質量和價值創造。

I see our strategy as even more relevant now than before, and you should not expect any changes to the strategy as I am coming into this role. We will continue to drive value creation, which is always more important than volume targets. The numbers this quarter and for the coming quarters will be impacted by all the changes so closely. One factor we will monitor closely is the inflation and cost increases. This is a growing concern. We see bottlenecks and delays, lower efficiency and risk of a drop in quality in the global supply chain. Our sanctioned project portfolio is mostly protected from this by contract already entered into. However, our unsanctioned portfolio is exposed to changes in the supplier market and in the frame conditions. For instance, the proposed change in the temporary tax regime on the Norwegian continental shelf will increase breakeven prices for the relevant project with $2 to $5 per barrel.

我認為我們的戰略現在比以前更重要，在我擔任這個角色時，你不應該期望戰略有任何變化。我們將繼續推動價值創造，這始終比數量目標更重要。本季度和未來幾個季度的數字將受到所有變化的密切影響。我們將密切關注的一個因素是通貨膨脹和成本增加。這是一個越來越令人擔憂的問題。我們看到了全球供應鏈中的瓶頸和延誤、效率降低和質量下降的風險。我們批准的項目組合主要受到已經簽訂的合同的保護。然而，我們未經批准的投資組合會受到供應商市場和框架條件變化的影響。例如，挪威大陸架臨時稅收制度的擬議變更將使相關項目的盈虧平衡價格每桶提高 2 至 5 美元。

Second, the outlook for commodity markets carries significant uncertainties, and we expect high volatility. Our balance sheet is robust with a net debt ratio of minus 19%. But I ask you to note and remember that -- this is impacted by delayed tax payments on the NCS, the Norwegian continental shelf. So as an example, if we paid all the taxes we owe as of today, net debt would move from minus 19% to within the guided range, which is plus 15% to 30%. The point here is if we see a drop in commodity prices, that can quickly increase the net debt ratio. So this is why capital discipline is so important. So we will prioritize in our investment portfolio, so we can execute projects with quality, on time, and on cost. Furthermore, maintaining a competitive capital distribution through the cycles will be very important to me.

其次，大宗商品市場前景存在較大不確定性，預計波動較大。我們的資產負債表穩健，淨負債率為負 19%。但我請你注意並記住——這是受到挪威大陸架 NCS 延遲納稅的影響。因此，舉個例子，如果我們支付了截至今天所欠的所有稅款，淨債務將從負 19% 移動到指導範圍內，即正 15% 到 30%。這裡的要點是，如果我們看到大宗商品價格下跌，那會迅速增加淨負債率。所以這就是資本紀律如此重要的原因。因此，我們將優先考慮我們的投資組合，以便我們能夠高質量、按時、按成本執行項目。此外，在周期中保持有競爭力的資本分配對我來說非常重要。

And looking at the capital distribution framework presented last year in 2021, we have used the flexibility with both significant step-ups in the share buybacks and an extraordinary dividend. And we will continue to use the framework and the flexibility within it.

看看去年 2021 年提出的資本分配框架，我們利用了靈活性，既大幅增加了股票回購，又派發了特別股息。我們將繼續使用框架和其中的靈活性。

Okay. So let's turn to today's topic. So we present strong results, still against a dark backdrop. And Norway and Equinor's role as a supplier of energy to Europe is more important than ever. And I want to use the opportunity to thank all our employees and suppliers, for all the strong efforts this quarter. We expect continued tight and volatile markets through the fall and winter. But that's always for European gas, temperatures and weather will have an impact. As usual, for the third quarter, we updated our commodity price assumptions. This is a slight increase in our expectations for brent from $70 to $75 in 2025 due to limited expected supply. For European gas, we expect TTF at $20 per MBtu in the same year as we expect Russian volumes to be reduced for the foreseeable future. We assume these prices will spill over to the prices for CO2 quarters, and German electricity prices.

好的。那麼讓我們進入今天的主題。因此，我們仍然在黑暗的背景下展示了強勁的業績。挪威和 Equinor 作為歐洲能源供應商的角色比以往任何時候都更加重要。我想藉此機會感謝我們所有的員工和供應商，感謝他們在本季度所做的一切努力。我們預計整個秋季和冬季市場將繼續緊張和波動。但這始終對歐洲的天然氣、溫度和天氣都會產生影響。與往常一樣，對於第三季度，我們更新了商品價格假設。由於預期供應有限，我們對 2025 年布倫特原油的預期從 70 美元略微上調至 75 美元。對於歐洲天然氣，我們預計同年 TTF 為每 MBtu 20 美元，因為我們預計在可預見的未來俄羅斯的銷量將減少。我們假設這些價格將溢出到二氧化碳季度的價格和德國電價。

We post adjusted earnings of more than $24 billion driven by high prices, particularly for gas, where European gas prices grew by 240% from last year, but also driven by continued high production. The production performance both at Hammerfest LNG and Peregrino, which came back on stream this summer has been good. All the 13 LNG cargoes from Hammerfest went to Europe. And by the way, so did 96% of crude from NCS in the quarter. Peregrino Phase 2 came on stream now in October, almost 2 years delayed by the Corona pandemic but it is still on budget. Gudrun Phase 2 also payment stream, and this will contribute with a higher recovery rate and extends the tail production of that field.

我們公佈的調整後收益超過 240 億美元，受高價格推動，尤其是天然氣，歐洲天然氣價格比去年上漲 240%，但也受到持續高產量的推動。 Hammerfest LNG 和 Peregrino 在今年夏天重新投產，生產性能都很好。來自 Hammerfest 的所有 13 批液化天然氣貨物都運往歐洲。順便說一句，本季度來自 NCS 的 96% 的原油也是如此。 Peregrino 第二階段於 10 月開始投產，因新冠病毒大流行而推遲了將近 2 年，但仍在預算之內。 Gudrun Phase 2 也有支付流，這將有助於提高采收率並延長該油田的尾礦產量。

And talking about renewables. The first solar plant in Poland is completed. Although energy security and production are on top of the agenda. We remain firm on our strategy and transition plans. In the quarter, we've seen Northern Lights signed its first commercial contract for CO2 transport from the Netherlands to Gudrun outside Bergen for storage under the seabed, an important step in the development of commercial and viable value chains for CO2. We have entered several partnerships to develop projects for large-scale commercial CO2 storage on the Norwegian continental shelf, and to develop low carbon opportunities in the United States and U.K.

並談論可再生能源。波蘭第一座太陽能發電廠竣工。儘管能源安全和生產是重中之重。我們對我們的戰略和過渡計劃保持堅定。在本季度，我們看到 Northern Lights 簽署了第一份商業合同，將二氧化碳從荷蘭運輸到卑爾根以外的古德倫，用於海底封存，這是開發二氧化碳商業和可行價值鏈的重要一步。我們已經建立了多個合作夥伴關係，以開發挪威大陸架上的大規模商業二氧化碳封存項目，並在美國和英國開發低碳機會。

We delivered strong financial results and with updated earnings expectations for 2022, we took a commercial decision to make an additional tax payment of around $10 billion in September. The strong results allow for continuing a competitive capital distribution. The Board has decided on a cash dividend of $0.20 per share for the third quarter. On the back of the continued strong financial results, the extraordinary cash dividend is further increased from $0.50 to $0.70 per share for the third quarter. This is an increase in our cash payments to shareholders, of around 30% from second quarter. Furthermore, we continue our share buyback program now at $6 billion for 2022. The fourth and final tranche will be around $1.8 billion with a market share of around $600 million. In total, we increased the capital distribution from $13 billion to $13.7 billion for 2022. We view this as a balanced approach where we invest in our competitive portfolio and in the energy transition, while showing a clear commitment to offer an attractive shareholder return.

我們取得了強勁的財務業績，並更新了 2022 年的盈利預期，我們做出商業決定，在 9 月份額外繳納約 100 億美元的稅款。強勁的業績允許繼續進行有競爭力的資本分配。董事會已決定第三季度派發每股 0.20 美元的現金股息。在持續強勁的財務業績的支持下，第三季度的特別現金股息從每股 0.50 美元進一步增加到 0.70 美元。與第二季度相比，我們向股東支付的現金增加了約 30%。此外，我們現在繼續我們的股票回購計劃，到 2022 年將達到 60 億美元。第四次也是最後一次回購將約為 18 億美元，市場份額約為 6 億美元。總的來說，我們將 2022 年的資本分配從 130 億美元增加到 137 億美元。我們認為這是一種平衡的方法，我們投資於我們有競爭力的投資組合和能源轉型，同時明確承諾提供有吸引力的股東回報。

Energy production from the Norwegian continental shelf is crucial to Europe's energy security. We have increased the state of alert based on our assessment to the threats to Equinor. And as a precautionary measure -- and we collaborate closely with the authorities on safety and security matters. Now to safety statistics. The 12-month average serious incident frequency is 0.4, a slight improvement from last quarter. The total recordable injury frequency for the past 12 months is 2.4 per million hours worked.

挪威大陸架的能源生產對歐洲的能源安全至關重要。我們根據對 Equinor 面臨的威脅的評估提高了警戒狀態。作為一項預防措施——我們與當局在安全和保障問題上密切合作。現在是安全統計數據。 12 個月的平均嚴重事件頻率為 0.4，較上一季度略有改善。過去 12 個月的總可記錄工傷頻率為每百萬工作小時 2.4 次。

We delivered a high production in a quarter where we also carry out a bigger scope of seasonal turnarounds. And even with a turnaround at Oseberg, we delivered 11% more gas from the Norwegian continental shelf than in the same quarter last year. Troll gas set a production record, delivering 38 BCM, or billion cubic meters, on a 100% basis in the gas year ending in September. Our total oil and gas production ended at 2 million and 21,000 barrels per day. [Power] production for the quarter ended at 491 gigawatt hours, 294 gigawatt hours of this production came from our renewable assets, slightly lower than last year due to maintenance activity and less wind.

我們在一個季度交付了高產量，同時我們還進行了更大範圍的季節性周轉。即使在 Oseberg 出現轉機，我們從挪威大陸架交付的天然氣也比去年同期多 11%。 Troll 天然氣創下生產記錄，在截至 9 月的天然氣年度中 100% 交付 38 BCM，即十億立方米。我們的石油和天然氣總產量分別為每天 200 萬桶和 21,000 桶。本季度的 [電力] 產量為 491 吉瓦時，其中 294 吉瓦時來自我們的可再生資產，由於維護活動和風力減少，略低於去年。

This summer, we acquired 50% of Triton Power in the U.K. with the key plant being the Saltend Power Station. Around 1 month of production is included in the third quarter numbers with nearly 200 gigawatt hours and $29 million in earnings, already paying down on the investment, which was $140 million for Equinor share. We continue to deliver very strong financial results. The adjusted earnings totaled $24.3 billion and $6.7 billion after tax. The reported net operating income was $26.1 billion, and net income was $9.4 billion. So we are not isolated from the cost increases impacting the rest of society. Higher energy costs and increased CO2 tax and price impacts our operating costs but you also see effects from longer lead times on equipment for maintenance. The cost increase is masked in our report due to substantial currency effect as we are reporting in dollars.

今年夏天，我們收購了英國 Triton Power 50% 的股份，重點工廠是 Saltend Power Station。第三季度的數據包括大約 1 個月的生產，近 200 吉瓦時和 2900 萬美元的收益，已經支付了投資，即 Equinor 的 1.4 億美元份額。我們繼續提供非常強勁的財務業績。調整後的收益總計為 243 億美元，稅後收益為 67 億美元。報告的淨營業收入為 261 億美元，淨收入為 94 億美元。因此，我們並沒有孤立於影響社會其他部分的成本增加。更高的能源成本和增加的二氧化碳稅和價格會影響我們的運營成本，但您也會看到更長的設備維護交付週期的影響。成本增加在我們的報告中被掩蓋，因為我們以美元報告時存在重大的貨幣影響。

We will continue our improvements as well as working strategically with long-term suppliers to mitigate rising cost pressure. Then we have net impairment reversals of $1.1 billion, mainly due to increased expectations for refinery margins and higher expected commodity prices. Also, we see value creation from portfolio optimization with a gain of $655 million from the divestment of our share in Ekofisk and a share in Martin Linge through Sval Energi. The tax rate in the quarter ended at 72.4%.

我們將繼續改進，並與長期供應商進行戰略合作，以減輕不斷上升的成本壓力。然後我們有 11 億美元的淨減值撥回，這主要是由於對煉油廠利潤率的預期增加和預期商品價格上漲。此外，我們從投資組合優化中看到了價值創造，通過剝離我們在 Ekofisk 的股份和通過 Sval Energi 在 Martin Linge 的股份獲得了 6.55 億美元的收益。本季度的稅率為 72.4%。

Now let's move to the segments. Our Norwegian upstream business delivered its best results ever, with adjusted earnings of $21.1 billion, and $4.7 billion after tax. High production, particularly of gas, combined with high prices drives this result. Our international business, excluding the U.S., performed very well in the quarter with adjusted earnings of $942 million, and $641 million after tax. Our U.S. upstream business delivered strong adjusted earnings of $889 million before tax and $868 million after tax.

現在讓我們轉到細分市場。我們的挪威上游業務取得了有史以來最好的成績，調整後收益為 211 億美元，稅後收益為 47 億美元。高產量，尤其是天然氣產量，加上高價格推動了這一結果。我們的國際業務（不包括美國）在本季度表現出色，調整後收益為 9.42 億美元，稅後收益為 6.41 億美元。我們的美國上游業務實現了強勁的調整後稅前收益 8.89 億美元和稅後收益 8.68 億美元。

The Midstream and Marketing segment contributes over $1.4 billion in adjusted earnings, and more than $500 million after tax. The gas pipeline network with access to many markets, combined with our marketing and trading capabilities has enabled us to create value from volatility and geographical spreads, delivering gas where it is needed the most. Excluding the positive impact of timing derivatives this quarter, the results from MMP is $1.2 billion, which is more than twice the high end of what we consider a normal result for MMP. This shows MMP's ability to deliver strong results in volatile markets.

中游和營銷部門貢獻了超過 14 億美元的調整後收益和超過 5 億美元的稅後收益。通往許多市場的天然氣管道網絡，結合我們的營銷和交易能力，使我們能夠從波動和地理差價中創造價值，將天然氣輸送到最需要的地方。排除本季度定時衍生品的積極影響，MMP 的業績為 12 億美元，是我們認為 MMP 正常業績高端的兩倍多。這表明 MMP 在動蕩的市場中取得強勁業績的能力。

Our renewable business has negative adjusted earnings as expected, of $46 million, a negative $32 million after tax. However, our producing facilities contributed with a positive result of $28 million. In the quarter, we have a cash flow from operations of $24.5 billion. The cash flow so far this year is $62.6 billion. In August, we started tax payments based on the 2022 results. In addition to the ordinary payment of NOK 70 billion in August, we choose to make an additional payment based on commercial considerations of NOK 105 billion at the end of September. In total, we paid around $17 billion in tax in the quarter. In fourth quarter, we will pay an additional NOK 140 billion in tax.

我們的可再生能源業務的調整後收益為負，為 4600 萬美元，稅後為負 3200 萬美元。然而，我們的生產設施貢獻了 2800 萬美元的積極成果。本季度，我們的運營現金流為 245 億美元。今年迄今為止的現金流為 626 億美元。 8 月，我們開始根據 2022 年的結果納稅。除了8月份700億挪威克朗的正常支付外，我們選擇在9月底基於商業考慮追加支付1050億挪威克朗。我們在本季度總共繳納了約 170 億美元的稅款。第四季度，我們將額外繳納1400億挪威克朗的稅款。

Capital distribution in the quarter is $3.3 billion. It consists of the dividend from the first quarter, extraordinary dividends, and the market share of the buybacks we made in the quarter. This also includes the state share of share buybacks done in 2021, totaling $1.4 billion. We are doing some adjustments to our guiding. We expect a year-on-year production increase of around 1%, down from the previous guiding of 2%. This is mainly explained by Johan Sverdrup. Phase 2, starting up later in fourth quarter than we expected. Due to its high production impact, it affects or estimates on a corporate level.

本季度的資本分配為 33 億美元。它包括第一季度的股息、特別股息以及我們在本季度進行的回購的市場份額。這還包括國家在 2021 年完成的股票回購中所佔份額，總計 14 億美元。我們正在對我們的指南進行一些調整。我們預計產量同比增長 1% 左右，低於之前 2% 的指導。這主要由 Johan Sverdrup 解釋。第二階段，第四季度啟動時間比我們預期的要晚。由於其對生產的影響很大，它會影響或估計公司層面。

We see very high volatility in the natural gas markets in Europe. For days with low prices, we will defer some production to periods where the gas is more needed and the prices are higher. As you know, we did some of this in the second quarter, and we will continue to use our flexibility in the fourth quarter when appropriate.

我們看到歐洲天然氣市場的波動非常大。對於價格低廉的日子，我們會將部分生產推遲到更需要天然氣且價格更高的時期。如您所知，我們在第二季度做了一些這樣的事情，我們將在第四季度繼續在適當的時候使用我們的靈活性。

In the third quarter, we have organic investments of $5.8 billion. This is somewhat lower than previously expected, and impacted by removal of investments to Russia. For the year as a whole, we expect to invest around $8.5 billion. We still expect an average of about $10 billion for 2022 and 2023, and then increased to around $12 billion on average for 2024 and 2025. So we will revert on this at our Capital Markets Update in February.

第三季度，我們有 58 億美元的有機投資。這略低於此前的預期，並受到撤回對俄羅斯投資的影響。全年，我們預計投資約 85 億美元。我們仍然預計 2022 年和 2023 年平均約為 100 億美元，然後在 2024 年和 2025 年增加到平均約 120 億美元。因此我們將在 2 月份的資本市場更新中恢復這一點。

So thank you very much. And with that, I leave the microphone back to you, Mads, and I do look forward to your questions.

非常感謝。就這樣，我把麥克風留給你，Mads，我期待你的提問。

Thank you very much, Torgrim. Let us pass back to the operator to open up for questions. (Operator Instructions)

非常感謝你，Torgrim。讓我們傳回給運營商開放的問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question is from Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

Congratulations, Torgrim. I wanted to ask about the base dividend. Previously, your guidance -- or the way you've talked about it is -- how it grows its underlying earnings, and looking at your updated Gastech today, which is materially higher, I would have thought the underlying earnings power should also be much higher than what you would have expected previously. So could you talk about how you're thinking about the base dividend in that context?

恭喜你，托格里姆。我想問一下基本股息。以前，你的指導——或者你談論它的方式是——它是如何增加其潛在收益的，看看你今天更新的 Gastech，它實際上更高了，我原以為潛在的盈利能力也應該很大高於您之前的預期。那麼，您能談談在這種情況下您是如何考慮基本股息的嗎？

And the second question is on your gas business, on the NCS. So in early September, there was a lot of chatter around Norway potentially agreeing a long-term fixed gas deal with Europe. So I don't expect you to talk about negotiations ongoing. But can you talk about whether Equinor would be open to this type of agreement hypothetically? And what kind of things you would need to see? Because obviously, it would give you greater clarity on your investments on the NCS as well over the long term.

第二個問題是關於您在 NCS 上的天然氣業務。因此，在 9 月初，圍繞挪威可能與歐洲達成一項長期固定天然氣協議的討論很多。所以我不希望你談論正在進行的談判。但是你能談談 Equinor 是否會假設對這種類型的協議持開放態度嗎？你需要看到什麼樣的東西？因為很明顯，從長遠來看，它會讓你更清楚地了解你在 NCS 上的投資。

Okay. Yes. Thank you very much, Biraj. So on your first question on the dividend, I mean, I'm very glad to see that we have been able to use the flexibility that sits within sort of the dividend policy we have. And also, I'm happy to talk about the increased -- the extraordinary dividend for the coming quarter.

好的。是的。非常感謝，比拉吉。所以關於你關於股息的第一個問題，我的意思是，我很高興看到我們能夠利用我們擁有的股息政策中的靈活性。而且，我很高興談論增加的 - 下一季度的特別股息。

So you point to that, the dividend policy says that the ordinary dividend should grow in line with long-term earnings. That policy remains firm. And this is not the time to sort of make big reviews in that, but this is something that we typically do in the fourth quarter to consider sort of the composition of the total capital distribution. So if there will be changes, that will point in time will be the Capital Markets Day in February.

所以你指出，股息政策說普通股息應該與長期收益同步增長。該政策仍然堅定。現在不是對此進行大審查的時候，但這是我們通常在第四季度做的事情，以考慮總資本分配的構成。因此，如果會有變化，時間點將是 2 月的資本市場日。

On sort of the question on natural gas to Europe. Clearly, we see that we have a very, very important role for the time being, and providing energy to Europe in the current situation, and also providing energy to where it is needed the most. So clearly, we have optimized our production on the Norwegian continental shelf. Production permits have been increased by the government. And we have actually decided to sell natural gas instead of injecting gas as a sort of pressure support in some of the field. So very, very high gas production. And of course, there are dialogues constantly with customers in many countries, and different types of contract structures. I mean we have recently signed a contract, long-term contract to Poland and other smaller contractors as well. And many of these bilateral agreements have different types of pricing structures. So when sort of -- we consider those will take up full commercial considerations related to that. And I'm not prepared to go into any specific discussions in any specific contracts. But there's a broad range of discussions around bilateral contracts. That's right.

關於向歐洲輸送天然氣的問題。很明顯，我們看到我們目前有一個非常非常重要的角色，在目前的情況下為歐洲提供能源，也為最需要的地方提供能源。很明顯，我們已經優化了在挪威大陸架上的生產。政府增加了生產許可。我們實際上已經決定出售天然氣而不是注入天然氣，作為在某些領域的一種壓力支持。非常非常高的天然氣產量。當然，與許多國家和不同類型的合同結構的客戶不斷進行對話。我的意思是我們最近與波蘭和其他較小的承包商簽署了一份合同，長期合同。許多這些雙邊協議都有不同類型的定價結構。因此，當某種程度上 - 我們認為這些將佔據與此相關的全部商業考慮因素。我不准備在任何具體合同中進行任何具體討論。但圍繞雙邊合同的討論範圍很廣。這是正確的。

The next question is from Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Oswald Clint。

Torgrim, very good to have you back. First question, just on the inflationary pressures that you're speaking about there. And I wonder if you could talk around how you're thinking about locking in rigs for perhaps the NCS, the North Sea. And I think Ulrica earlier this year was speaking about deeper supplier relationships in order to get through any inflationary pressures looking forward. So perhaps you could speak what exactly you're actually doing there to perhaps mitigate some of the concerns that you're raising in your prepared remarks.

Torgrim，很高興你回來。第一個問題，關於你所說的通脹壓力。我想知道你是否可以談談你是如何考慮為北海 NCS 鎖定鑽井平台的。我認為 Ulrica 今年早些時候談到了更深層次的供應商關係，以便克服未來的任何通脹壓力。所以也許你可以說出你在那裡實際做什麼，以減輕你在準備好的發言中提出的一些擔憂。

And then secondly, I just want to explore more. I mean fourth quarter, first quarter, normally, we got a big seasonal uptick in your gas volumes, but you have been producing a lot of gas this year, sustainably through the year. The guidance still seems to suggest a decent uptick here in the fourth quarter. So are we going to see that normal seasonal uplift with natural gas volumes through 4Q, 1Q? Is that still on the cards?

其次，我只想探索更多。我的意思是第四季度，第一季度，通常情況下，我們的天然氣產量季節性增長很大，但今年你們一直在持續生產大量天然氣，全年可持續。該指引似乎仍表明第四季度這裡出現了不錯的增長。那麼我們是否會在第四季度、第一季度看到天然氣量的正常季節性增長？那還在卡片上嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Oswald. So on the inflationary pressure. I think there are several elements to it. I mean, we see it in sort of many parts of the value chain. I mean clearly within rigs, and I'll come back to that, but we also see it within engineering and construction, and particularly sort of in yards in Asia. We see subsea and marine activities where activity going forward will be impacted by sort of the tax -- NCS tax package. And of course, within offshore wind, we see a tightness across the board.

是的。謝謝，奧斯瓦爾德。所以對通脹壓力。我認為它有幾個要素。我的意思是，我們在價值鏈的許多部分都看到了它。我的意思是在鑽井平台內，我會回到那個，但我們也在工程和建築中看到它，特別是在亞洲的院子裡。我們看到海底和海洋活動，未來的活動將受到某種稅收的影響——NCS 稅收方案。當然，在海上風電領域，我們看到了全面的緊張局面。

On rigs, in particular, I would say that within harsh environment, and semisubmersibles is sort of where we see probably the tightest. We work, as Ulrica said, closely with those suppliers and have a long-term relationship with key players. So we will clearly be able to maneuver within, but maybe a little bit back to what I said in my speech. We will have to prioritize in our portfolio. So we see that we can execute our investment program with quality, on time and on cost, and sort of the overall capacity in the supply chain will be a key element in that discussion.

特別是在鑽井平台上，我會說在惡劣的環境中，半潛式是我們看到的最狹窄的地方。正如 Ulrica 所說，我們與這些供應商密切合作，並與主要參與者保持長期合作關係。因此，我們顯然能夠在內部進行操作，但可能會稍微回到我在演講中所說的內容。我們將不得不在我們的投資組合中優先考慮。因此，我們看到我們可以按質量、按時、按成本執行我們的投資計劃，供應鏈中的整體能力將成為該討論的關鍵因素。

On your second question, on the third quarter -- or fourth quarter and first quarter gas volumes. I think, first of all, the situation in Europe is very special. And how demand and supply develops month-by-month is actually quite uncertain. But clearly, we do see a tight market going forward in maybe some of the specifics. In the third quarter, we had a turnaround on Oseberg, which is a large gas producer. So that is -- has come out of turnaround. So that will produce, and have capacity available in the fourth quarter. And in general, we have received increased production permits for the big gas producers from the state, also giving us the ability to continue to produce gas at a very, very high level.

關於你的第二個問題，關於第三季度——或第四季度和第一季度的天然氣量。我認為，首先，歐洲的情況非常特殊。而需求和供應如何逐月發展實際上是相當不確定的。但很明顯，在某些細節方面，我們確實看到了未來的緊張市場。第三季度，我們對大型天然氣生產商 Oseberg 進行了轉機。那就是 - 已經完成轉機。因此，這將在第四季度生產並擁有可用產能。總的來說，我們已經從該州獲得了大型天然氣生產商增加的生產許可證，這也使我們有能力繼續以非常非常高的水平生產天然氣。

Then I think there is something that I need to say, and that is that the gas prices fluctuate very much on a daily basis and weekly basis. And we will have days and we will have weeks with very low prices in some of the locations. And at those points in time, we will probably use the opportunity and the flexibility in our machine to defer gas to periods where sort of prices are higher, and the gas is needed more. So I just want to make it clear for you that we will prioritize the value over volume in sort of optimizing our gas productions, both related to price but also to where the gas is needed.

然後我覺得有一點我需要說一下，那就是天然氣價格每天和每週的波動都很大。我們將有幾天甚至幾週的時間在某些地點以非常低的價格出售。在那些時間點，我們可能會利用我們機器的機會和靈活性將天然氣推遲到價格較高且需要更多天然氣的時期。因此，我只想向您說明，在某種程度上優化我們的天然氣生產時，我們將優先考慮價值而不是數量，這既與價格有關，也與需要天然氣的地方有關。

Not sure if that gave a very, very clear answer to you, Oswald. But the key point it is uncertain. We have capacity available to produce very high, and we will optimize for value instead of volume.

不確定這是否給了你一個非常非常明確的答案，Oswald。但關鍵點是不確定的。我們有能力生產非常高的產品，我們將優化價值而不是數量。

The next question comes from Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, just coming back to the dividend and the extraordinary dividend. The falloff in gas prices that we've seen just sort of relatively short-term does create a potential for a formal free cash flow for (inaudible) in the fourth quarter. How do you think about how you set that sort of extraordinary dividend? Is it done on a -- this is what the results were for the quarter. And so are we looking at being slightly more stable in that sense.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一個，剛剛回到紅利和特別紅利。我們所看到的相對短期的天然氣價格下跌確實為第四季度（聽不清）的正式自由現金流創造了潛力。你如何看待你如何設定這種非凡的股息？它是在 - 這就是本季度的結果。從這個意義上說，我們也在考慮稍微穩定一點。

And then the second one, if I could cut to move in the accounting assumptions around the long run and the European gas price, in particular, does that have any implications for how you think about the business and how you think about investments going forward?

然後是第二個，如果我可以削減長期會計假設，特別是歐洲天然氣價格，這對你如何看待業務以及你如何看待未來的投資有任何影響嗎？

Thank you very much, Lydia. You were clicking a little bit. So maybe you can repeat the first part on dividend for me. So I know I got the question right.

非常感謝你，莉迪亞。你點擊了一點。所以也許你可以為我重複關於股息的第一部分。所以我知道我答對了問題。

Sorry about that. Yes, I was just wondering in terms of the -- how you think about assessing the extraordinary dividend, given how volatile the natural gas prices actually are at the moment. So we obviously had it fall off from where we were in the third quarter, would that automatically translate through to a lower extraordinary dividend in the fourth quarter? Or do you think about it being a little bit more stable?

對於那個很抱歉。是的，我只是想知道——考慮到目前天然氣價格的實際波動程度，你如何看待評估特別股息。所以我們顯然已經從第三季度的水平下降，這會自動轉化為第四季度較低的特別股息嗎？或者你認為它更穩定一點？

Okay. Perfect. Perfect. It's a very, very important question. So the way we think about this is that we have in the policy that clearly we will have an ordinary dividend, and then we will use share buybacks to -- in times with high prices, and when we are outside sort of the guided net debt. And then we have used extraordinary dividends because we are in a situation with a very, very strong balance sheet. So what you should expect is that sort of -- we will do a review of the totality in relation to the fourth quarter and Capital Markets update. And sort of, clearly, there will be a clear direction that over time, we will get back to the guided range on net debt.

好的。完美的。完美的。這是一個非常非常重要的問題。因此，我們考慮這一點的方式是，我們在政策中明確表示我們將獲得普通股息，然後我們將使用股票回購——在價格高的時候，以及當我們不在指導淨債務範圍內時.然後我們使用了特別股息，因為我們的資產負債表非常非常強勁。所以你應該期待的是——我們將對與第四季度和資本市場更新相關的整體情況進行審查。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們將有一個明確的方向，回到淨債務的指導範圍內。

On sort of specifics on a quarter-by-quarter, we will take the approach that we will pay out dividend based on money already made, not based on expected cash flow for the future. So if that gives you a little bit more [steer], Lydia, I hope so, yes.

關於逐季度的具體細節，我們將採取的方法是根據已經賺到的錢支付股息，而不是根據未來的預期現金流。所以，如果這能給你多一點 [轉向]，Lydia，我希望如此，是的。

And the second one was related to accounting assumptions, and you were clicking a little bit there as well. So maybe you can just repeat that briefly for me.

第二個與會計假設有關，您也點擊了一點。所以也許你可以簡單地為我重複一遍。

Sure. Yes, it was more about does the change in the gas prices that you've made, has it start to change how you think about the investment program and sort of how you allocate capital, effectively.

當然。是的，更多的是關於你所做的天然氣價格的變化，它是否開始改變你對投資計劃的看法以及你如何有效地分配資本。

Okay. Okay. Perfect. Yes. So I mean -- yes, so we have updated our assumptions related to prices, both for oil and gas. And those are assumptions that we clearly use in our processes when it comes to planning and prioritization going forward. And then as you see, it is particularly an increase in sort of the gas price for the more sort of closer years up to 2025. So if anything, it sort of points investments in direction to investments that can give gas production in the short-term.

好的。好的。完美的。是的。所以我的意思是——是的，所以我們更新了與石油和天然氣價格相關的假設。這些是我們在未來規劃和優先級排序過程中明確使用的假設。然後正如您所見，尤其是在 2025 年之前的更近幾年中，天然氣價格會有所上漲。因此，如果有的話，它有點將投資指向可以在短期內生產天然氣的投資方向學期。

The next question comes from Teodor Nilsen from SB1 Market.

下一個問題來自 SB1 Market 的 Teodor Nilsen。

Two questions. First on your updated CapEx guidance, the implied CapEx guidance for 2023 is up from $10 billion to $11.5 billion. I just wonder how is the split between Russia and [not more] in the portfolio and (inaudible) and thirdly, inflation. Second question is on Sverdrup. When specifically in Q4, do you expect Sverdrup Phase 2 to commence production? And how should we think around the production ramp-up through 2023 from Sverdrup?

兩個問題。首先，在您更新的資本支出指南中，隱含的 2023 年資本支出指南從 100 億美元增加到 115 億美元。我只是想知道俄羅斯與 [not more] 在投資組合和（聽不清）以及第三個通貨膨脹方面的分歧如何。第二個問題是關於 Sverdrup 的。特別是在第四季度，您預計 Sverdrup 第二階段開始生產嗎？我們應該如何考慮 Sverdrup 到 2023 年的產量提升？

Okay. Thanks, Teodor. So first on CapEx guidance. So you're right. So we have reduced CapEx guiding for the year to be [$8.5 billion]. And to give maybe a little bit more granularity into the reduction. It is not driven by sort of changes in sort of inflation because we don't see it really in sort of the reported numbers, but it's driven by some delayed CapEx, and that Russia is not sort of part of the guiding anymore. So Russian is out. And sort of we see some slight changes to Vito in the group of Mexico operated by Shell, and a little bit in sort of the Brazilian assets. On top of that, we have sold a share in North Platte in Gulf Mexico to Shell. So I think those give us a more of a complete picture.

好的。謝謝，特奧多。所以首先是關於資本支出的指導。所以你是對的。因此，我們已將本年度的資本支出指導減少至 [85 億美元]。並為減少提供更多的粒度。它不是由某種通貨膨脹的變化驅動的，因為我們在報告的數字中並沒有真正看到它，但它是由一些延遲的資本支出驅動的，而且俄羅斯不再是指導的一部分。所以俄語出局了。在某種程度上，我們看到 Vito 在殼牌運營的墨西哥集團中發生了一些細微變化，在巴西資產中也發生了一些變化。最重要的是，我們已將墨西哥灣 North Platte 的股份出售給殼牌。所以我認為這些給了我們一個更完整的畫面。

So then some of this is moved on to next year. And we have said that the average for 2022 and 2023 will be $10 billion. And clearly, we will come back to maybe more details on that in the Capital Markets Day. On Johan Sverdrup Phase 2. Yes, thank you very much. And coming back as the CFO, I really appreciate you all said, I must -- a long awaited itself to say. So Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 will have a production capacity of more than 200,000 barrels per day. So it will start sort of towards the end of the quarter. I don't have a specific date for you. But we do believe that it will come at full capacity during 2023. And when you add together Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 and Phase 2, you get to around 750,000 barrels per day in production, which is, of course, a very big contribution to earnings in '23 and going forward.

因此，其中一些將轉移到明年。我們說過，2022 年和 2023 年的平均值為 100 億美元。很明顯，我們將在資本市場日回來討論更多細節。關於 Johan Sverdrup 第 2 階段。是的，非常感謝。作為首席財務官回來，我真的很感謝你們所有人說，我必須 - 一個期待已久的自己說。因此，Johan Sverdrup 二期的生產能力將超過每天 200,000 桶。所以它將在本季度末開始。我沒有你的具體日期。但我們確實相信它會在 2023 年滿負荷運轉。當你將 Johan Sverdrup 第一階段和第二階段加在一起時，每天的產量將達到約 750,000 桶，這當然是對收益的巨大貢獻在 23 年及以後。

The next question comes from Yoann Charenton from Society Generale.

下一個問題來自 Society Generale 的 Yoann Charenton。

I have 2 questions, if you don't mind. So first, one of your remarks suggested that one should account for tax payables when assessing whether the net debt ratio is actually within the targeted 15% to 30% gearing range. Just to avoid any misunderstanding, are you saying that the net debt ratio is already back within that tranche from your viewpoint? So does it mean that there is currently limited room for maintaining capital distribution above CapEx guidance next year based on the current energy price environment?

如果你不介意的話，我有兩個問題。因此，首先，您的其中一項評論建議，在評估淨債務比率是否實際上在 15% 至 30% 的目標負債範圍內時，應考慮應納稅額。為了避免誤會，你是說淨負債率從你的角度來看已經回到了那個檔次？那麼，這是否意味著根據當前的能源價格環境，目前維持資本分配高於明年資本支出指導的空間有限？

And second question, if you don't mind, at the start of the year when your predecessor presented your multiyear organic CapEx guidance, the company's project portfolio contain a few Russian projects. You have now exited the country. And the CapEx guidance beyond this year is maintained based on an unchanged USD, NOK exchange rates. As such, does this maintain or unchanged guidance for CapEx from next year onwards, captures a range of factors you touched upon in your remarks, which are basically inflation -- supply chain bottlenecks and possible changes to Norwegian development plans in response to lower tax deductions.

第二個問題，如果你不介意的話，在年初你的前任提出你的多年有機資本支出指南時，公司的項目組合包含一些俄羅斯項目。你現在已經離開了這個國家。今年以後的資本支出指南將根據美元、挪威克朗匯率不變維持不變。因此，從明年開始，資本支出的指導方針是維持還是不變，包括你在評論中提到的一系列因素，這些因素基本上是通貨膨脹——供應鏈瓶頸和挪威發展計劃可能發生的變化，以應對較低的稅收減免.

Okay. Thank you very much, Yoann. On your first question, on tax payable. So let me be very clear. We currently have a net debt of minus 19%. So the point I would like to make is that when prices are very high and earnings are very high from Norway, we will build a tax credit position that we have to pay back over the years. And sort of as prices come down, the tax credit will be reduced. So clearly, we have -- I mean we will not pay all our outstanding taxes in one go, it's just to illustrate the point. So this will be a slow-moving thing, and we will always have tax credits, but it will be dependent on the price level. So when we see a drop in gas and oil prices, the tax credit will go down, and the net debt will be -- net debt ratio will be higher.

好的。非常感謝你，約安。關於你的第一個問題，關於應納稅額。所以讓我非常清楚。我們目前的淨債務為負 19%。所以我想說的是，當價格非常高並且來自挪威的收入非常高時，我們將建立一個我們必須在多年內償還的稅收抵免地位。隨著價格下降，稅收抵免也會減少。很明顯，我們 - 我的意思是我們不會一次性支付所有未繳稅款，這只是為了說明這一點。所以這將是一件緩慢的事情，我們總是會有稅收抵免，但這將取決於價格水平。因此，當我們看到天然氣和石油價格下跌時，稅收抵免將下降，淨債務將——淨債務比率將更高。

Then on your question on Russia, and exiting of Russia. So clearly, that will have an impact on sort of future outlook for the company, both when it comes to CapEx but also production as such. So we are not ready to give an update on how this will look beyond this year. So all of this will come together in the Capital Markets Day that we will host in early February. So I'm looking forward to see you there, you all.

然後是關於俄羅斯和退出俄羅斯的問題。很明顯，這將對公司的未來前景產生影響，無論是在資本支出方面還是在生產方面。因此，我們不准備就今年以後的情況進行更新。因此，所有這些都將在我們將於 2 月初舉辦的資本市場日匯聚一堂。所以我很期待在那裡見到你們，你們大家。

The next question comes from John Olaisen from ABG.

下一個問題來自 ABG 的 John Olaisen。

I got a question on the -- let me see what my question was actually. Related to the profitability in renewables versus oil and gas, the last couple of years, Torgrim, you have been -- you've been busy with the renewable business. So probably a few people in the world knows more about profitability for projects in the renewable industry than you right now. So I just wonder -- if you look at -- right now, of course, the profitability for oil and gas are very high and for renewables is very low. So I wonder if you could elaborate a little bit on where you see profitability in renewable projects right now and going forward. Because I think that's important to bear in mind, since you have -- Equinor has a strong strategy of expanding in renewables. So I think your view on the profitability for renewable projects will be extremely interesting to hear, please.

我有一個問題——讓我看看我的問題到底是什麼。關於可再生能源與石油和天然氣的盈利能力，過去幾年，Torgrim，你一直在忙於可再生能源業務。因此，現在世界上可能只有少數人比您更了解可再生能源行業項目的盈利能力。所以我只是想知道 - 如果你看 - 現在，當然，石油和天然氣的盈利能力非常高，而可再生能源的盈利能力非常低。所以我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下你現在和未來在可再生能源項目中看到的盈利能力。因為我認為記住這一點很重要，因為你有 - Equinor 有一個強大的可再生能源擴張戰略。因此，我認為您對可再生能源項目盈利能力的看法將非常有趣。

Thank you very much, John. So it's a very, very important question and something clearly we discussed extensively, internally as well. So maybe first, so far, up to now, the renewable business have delivered actually, must allow myself to say, significant value creation, clearly, driven by that we have excess opportunities earlier. We have derisked them, and then we have divested half of them. So actually, I think there's some 2 -- yes, more than $2 billion in gains within that business. So, so far, we have net invested $2.5 billion into that industry. So I mean, it's so far actually gained quite a bit of money.

非常感謝你，約翰。所以這是一個非常非常重要的問題，我們在內部也進行了廣泛討論。所以也許首先，到目前為止，到目前為止，可再生能源業務實際上已經交付，必須讓我自己說，重要的價值創造，很明顯，是由我們早些時候有過剩機會驅動的。我們降低了他們的風險，然後我們剝離了其中的一半。所以實際上，我認為該業務中有一些 2 - 是的，超過 20 億美元的收益。所以，到目前為止，我們已經向該行業淨投資了 25 億美元。所以我的意思是，到目前為止，它實際上已經賺了很多錢。

Ongoing forward, and the underlying profitability in the project, yes, it is clearly lower than within the oil and gas activities, but also with a very different risk associated to it. So what we see is actually that there is a lot of competition for new opportunities and seabed leases in particular. We continue to see that area, and it has been so competitive that we actually have not won leases over the year. I think we actually didn't win in 4 of the last leases. And to be frank, I'm actually happy or not happy. I'm okay with that. Because, I mean, the prices were too stiff as we saw it. But we'll continue to participate. We will continue to monitor it. And I do believe that with increasing interest rates and sort of tighter capital available that it will sort of drive more normal economic behavior in many of these lease rounds.

繼續前進，以及該項目的潛在盈利能力，是的，它顯然低於石油和天然氣活動，但與之相關的風險也大不相同。所以我們看到的是，在新機會和特別是海底租賃方面存在很多競爭。我們繼續關注該地區，而且競爭如此激烈，以至於我們實際上在過去一年中都沒有贏得租約。我認為我們實際上沒有在最近的 4 個租約中獲勝。坦率地說，我其實很高興或不高興。我沒意見。因為，我的意思是，正如我們所看到的那樣，價格太僵硬了。但我們會繼續參與。我們將繼續關注它。而且我確實相信，隨著利率的上升和可用資本的緊縮，它將在許多此類租賃輪次中推動更正常的經濟行為。

So we take a long-term perspective on that. We have started to build more of an onshore portfolio, particularly in Europe, but also in Brazil, where we actually see that it's possible to capitalize on taking a market perspective, making money through Danske Commodities and seeing the whole power market altogether. So actually promising results for many of those investments. And those are sort of more short-cycle investments, and quicker to returns and lower capital intensity. This is a long reply, John, but I think it's a little bit color what I've been doing over the last few years.

因此，我們對此採取了長遠的眼光。我們已經開始建立更多的在岸投資組合，特別是在歐洲，但在巴西，我們實際上看到，可以利用市場視角，通過 Danske Commodities 賺錢並全面了解整個電力市場。因此，其中許多投資的實際結果很有希望。這些都是更短週期的投資，回報更快，資本密集度更低。約翰，這是一個很長的回复，但我認為這對我過去幾年所做的事情有點影響。

Maybe the -- what I would like to highlight as well. I mean, we see that for renewable to become a competitive business within an industry. We need to allow that business to be run differently than the oil and gas activities. So we're -- we'll be making changes to how we run our renewable business, still safeguarding all the big synergies that we have as being part of Equinor. So clearly, we aim to capitalize on the best of 2 worlds, giving sufficient freedom for that business to develop as needed, but really capitalizing on being part of a big and strong company like Equinor. So you'll probably hear more of that as sort of step that matures.

也許——我也想強調一下。我的意思是，我們看到可再生能源將成為行業內具有競爭力的業務。我們需要允許該業務以不同於石油和天然氣活動的方式運行。所以我們——我們將改變我們經營可再生能源業務的方式，仍然維護我們作為 Equinor 的一部分所擁有的所有巨大協同效應。很明顯，我們的目標是利用兩個世界中最好的，為該業務提供足夠的自由來根據需要發展，但真正利用成為像 Equinor 這樣的強大公司的一部分。所以你可能會聽到更多這樣的成熟步驟。

And maybe I have a follow-up on that. So 2 particular projects is solar in Poland, and your Brazilian projects with (inaudible) Solar. Is it possible to give us some kind of indication if those projects -- the equity IRR on those projects are above the -- the cost of equity for those projects? And is it possible to give like kind of a factor? Is it 20% above required equity return on those projects? Or is it below cost of equity?

也許我會對此進行跟進。所以 2 個特定項目是波蘭的太陽能，以及您的巴西項目（聽不清）太陽能。如果這些項目——這些項目的股權 IRR 高於——這些項目的股權成本，是否有可能給我們一些指示？是否有可能給出類似的因素？是否比這些項目所需的股本回報率高出 20%？還是低於權益成本？

Okay. We just installed or started our first solar asset in Poland. So -- and also -- and that we are doing through sort of the Wento acquisition we did earlier on. The Brazilian assets we are developing together with Scatec. And I won't go into specific returns in those but they are within sort of the guided range that we have said related to the renewable business. On your point on equity return, you're right, these projects, particularly the one in Brazil are product financed and then sort of equity returns is driven by the leverage that we put in those projects. Yes.

好的。我們剛剛在波蘭安裝或啟動了我們的第一個太陽能資產。所以 - 而且 - 我們正在通過我們早些時候進行的 Wento 收購來做。我們與 Scatec 一起開發的巴西資產。我不會討論這些的具體回報，但它們在我們所說的與可再生能源業務相關的指導範圍內。關於股權回報的觀點，你是對的，這些項目，尤其是巴西的項目是產品融資的，然後股權回報是由我們在這些項目中投入的槓桿驅動的。是的。

All right. So that was 2 questions for me. The final question is regarding CapEx. You don't make any change in your CapEx guidance. But as you mentioned, you talked about -- or you talked about inflation and bottlenecks. I just wonder how should we interpret that? Should as interpreter we say that it could be upside in the CapEx guidance between now and '25 if inflation comes in? Or is that already taken account for in your CapEx guidance, which you launched, if I remember correctly, a year ago or in January.

好的。所以這對我來說是 2 個問題。最後一個問題是關於資本支出的。您不會對您的資本支出指南進行任何更改。但正如你提到的，你談到了——或者你談到了通貨膨脹和瓶頸。我只是想知道我們應該如何解釋？作為解釋者，我們是否應該說，如果通貨膨脹出現，從現在到 25 年的資本支出指南可能會上漲？或者，如果我沒記錯的話，你在一年前或一月份發布的資本支出指南中是否已經考慮到了這一點。

Thanks, John. So I mean, what we have updated today is more on the short-term topics. And we will revert on an update both in the shorter term and longer term on the Capital Markets Day, but I just want to leave with you that what we see is an increased pressure in the supply value chain, both when it comes to costs and also when it comes to the ability to execute with a capacity constraint. So probably nothing new compared to what you have heard from other companies.

謝謝，約翰。所以我的意思是，我們今天更新的更多是關於短期主題的。我們將在資本市場日恢復短期和長期的更新，但我只想告訴你，我們看到的是供應價值鏈的壓力增加，無論是在成本方面還是在成本方面。在能力約束下執行的能力也是如此。因此，與您從其他公司聽到的相比，可能沒有什麼新鮮事。

The next question comes from Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got 2 questions as well, if I may. On the issue of gas production, you're sort of basically telling us is that Equinor from now on will start to act more as a sort of a swing supplier in this market, cutting production when prices are low. But these days, it's very hard to know what low really actually is because we've seen such a wide range already. Could you speak a little bit about what you would consider to be a low price that might trigger you to actually do this. And at what price you would mostly then be looking at? Is it they had months ahead I think for sort of market liquidity, and those participating in gas markets, it would be useful to know what's sort of the framework around these decisions would be, also simply to help the sort of working off the market?

如果可以的話，我也有兩個問題。關於天然氣生產問題，你基本上是在告訴我們，從現在開始，Equinor 將開始更多地充當這個市場的搖擺供應商，在價格低廉時減產。但是現在，很難知道真正的低點是多少，因為我們已經看到瞭如此廣泛的範圍。您能否談談您認為可能觸發您實際執行此操作的低價。然後您主要會以什麼價格查看？我認為他們是否提前幾個月獲得某種市場流動性，以及那些參與天然氣市場的人，了解圍繞這些決策的框架是什麼樣的，也只是為了幫助在市場之外工作會很有用嗎？

And then secondly, also related to the gas market, I wanted to ask you what you would currently consider to be the main bottleneck in supplying more gas to Europe. Is that mostly the ability to produce natural gas from the fields that you have? Or is it mostly related to infrastructure bottlenecks? And also given the situation that we have, and consistent with the revisions that you made to long-term TTF price assumptions, how you would consider about the CapEx budget, specifically for gas production and infrastructure-related assets. Should we expect at the Capital Markets Day in February, an increase in gas-related CapEx. Would that make sense?

其次，也與天然氣市場有關，我想問你，你認為目前向歐洲供應更多天然氣的主要瓶頸是什麼。這主要是從您擁有的油田生產天然氣的能力嗎？還是主要與基礎設施瓶頸有關？並且考慮到我們的情況，並且與您對長期 TTF 價格假設所做的修訂一致，您將如何考慮資本支出預算，特別是天然氣生產和基礎設施相關資產。我們是否應該期待在 2 月的資本市場日，與天然氣相關的資本支出會增加。這有意義嗎？

Okay. Very good, Martijn. So first of all, the flexibility that we have in sort of our gas machine, as we call it, or the gas production system is something that we have had for many, many years, and is sort of built up deliberately for us to be able to reach various markets and to optimize or provide gas where it's most needed and also to give us flexibility to time the deliveries, to when gas is needed and the prices are the highest.

好的。很好，馬丁。因此，首先，我們在某種程度上擁有我們所謂的燃氣機或天然氣生產系統的靈活性，這是我們多年來一直擁有的東西，並且是有意為我們建立起來的能夠進入不同的市場並在最需要的地方優化或提供天然氣，還使我們能夠靈活地安排交付時間，以及何時需要天然氣和價格最高。

So the results in the third quarter that you have seen from MMP is very much driven by actually -- I think it's a proof point that sort of what we have built up over many, many years is really working. It's working for Europe and is working for the bottom line for Equinor. Then on your key question, being a swing supplier. Well, we will not be a swing supplier. I mean we will produce natural gas as a base provider of energy to Europe. But within that machine, we have flexibility, and I can give a couple of examples. We have Oseberg where you sort of have a production permit that we can produce during 80 days of a year. So we can pick the best days to produce Oseberg. So that's sort of the production permit. So that is in sort of a gas storage term. I would probably call it Europe's largest short-cycle gas storage.

因此，您從 MMP 看到的第三季度的結果在很大程度上是由實際驅動的——我認為這是一個證明點，證明我們多年來建立起來的東西確實有效。它為歐洲工作，為 Equinor 的底線工作。然後是你的關鍵問題，成為搖擺供應商。好吧，我們不會成為鞦韆供應商。我的意思是我們將生產天然氣作為歐洲能源的基礎供應商。但在那台機器內，我們有靈活性，我可以舉幾個例子。我們有 Oseberg，在那裡您可以獲得我們可以在一年 80 天內生產的生產許可證。所以我們可以選擇生產 Oseberg 的最佳日子。這就是生產許可證。所以這是一種氣體儲存術語。我可能會稱它為歐洲最大的短週期儲氣庫。

Then we have Troll, which is a very, very large producer. That is typically production profile from Troll. It's produced at full capacity during winter and lower during the summer, and it has flexibility to move gas between summer. So it's more of a seasonal storage if you want to compare it to sort of the storage methodology. And then there are a lot of other smaller flexibilities around and production permits that we can optimize, and all of that. So we will adjust -- on top of sort of the base production, we will adjust the gas production depending on when the gas is most needed in Europe, and to the market where it is most needed. And price signals is what actually dictates where the gas is needed at any point in time. So MBtu prices currently are significantly lower compared to what we have seen lately. So yesterday, it was at $6 per MBtu and then for the day before. So clearly, that gives opportunities to defer gas. And also, we are in a period where there's not a big need for additional gas to the U.K.

然後我們有 Troll，這是一個非常非常大的生產商。這通常是來自 Troll 的生產配置文件。它在冬季滿負荷生產，夏季產量較低，並且可以靈活地在夏季之間輸送天然氣。因此，如果您想將其與某種存儲方法進行比較，它更像是一種季節性存儲。然後還有許多其他較小的靈活性和我們可以優化的生產許可，等等。因此，我們將調整——在某種基礎生產之上，我們將根據歐洲最需要天然氣的時間以及最需要天然氣的市場來調整天然氣產量。價格信號實際上決定了在任何時間點哪裡需要天然氣。因此，與我們最近看到的相比，目前的 MBtu 價格要低得多。所以昨天，它是每 MBtu 6 美元，然後是前一天。很明顯，這提供了推遲天然氣的機會。而且，我們所處的時期對英國的額外天然氣需求不大。

Yes, you had a question about infrastructure bottlenecks. Clearly, there are bottlenecks. I mean, infrastructure, there's a maximum capacity in all infrastructure. But in total, there is flexibility to route and reroute and swap volumes compared to the various landing points at that point in time.

是的，您有關於基礎設施瓶頸的問題。顯然，存在瓶頸。我的意思是，基礎設施，所有基礎設施都有最大容量。但總的來說，與當時的各個著陸點相比，可以靈活地路由、重新路由和交換體積。

Next question is from Kim Fustier from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

Two questions from me, please. Firstly, just going back to gas pricing mechanisms. There has been a lot of talk for many weeks now about a potential EU gas price cap. I wondered if you could share any thoughts you may have on this, particularly on the feasibility of such a cap and potential wanted or unwanted consequences.

請問我兩個問題。首先，回到天然氣定價機制。數週以來，關於潛在的歐盟天然氣價格上限的討論很多。我想知道您是否可以分享您對此的任何想法，特別是關於這種上限的可行性以及潛在的想要或不想要的後果。

And then my second question is on LNG. Some of your peers are making a lot of money these days off taking U.S. LNG and bringing it to Europe, and I appreciate that you're a huge seller of pipeline gas to Europe, but you've did your toes into U.S. LNG with that contract with Cheniere you signed over the summer. I was just wondering if you're considering further increasing your U.S. LNG offtake.

然後我的第二個問題是關於液化天然氣的。這些天，你們的一些同行通過將美國液化天然氣運往歐洲賺了很多錢，我很欣賞你們是歐洲管道天然氣的大賣家，但你們已經涉足美國液化天然氣了你在夏天與 Cheniere 簽訂的合同。我只是想知道您是否正在考慮進一步增加美國液化天然氣的採購量。

Okay. Thanks, Kim. So yes, I mean, there are a lot of discussions related to efforts from the EU and mechanisms to manage a very critical energy situation for Europe. And yes, we understand that, that is a pressing issue, and that is being discussed. So -- but I think it's fair to say that anything discussed so far has not been firmed up -- and there are sort of elements are moving quickly around when it comes to the various mechanisms. On a price cap in general, I would say that it is important that -- well, the problem is actually it's too little energy available to Europe. So I mean the best we can do is actually to produce more gas to Europe. So that's clearly what we want to do. And what we see is that sort of pricing, and market prices is the best way to manage demand and supply. So if we sort of make changes to well-functioning market mechanisms, we might end up in a situation where demand probably too high, and it won't be able to attract the sufficient volumes to supply Europe.

好的。謝謝，金。所以是的，我的意思是，有很多討論與歐盟的努力和管理歐洲非常嚴峻的能源形勢的機制有關。是的，我們知道這是一個緊迫的問題，並且正在討論中。所以——但我認為可以公平地說，到目前為止所討論的任何內容都沒有得到證實——而且當涉及到各種機制時，有些元素正在快速移動。關於一般的價格上限，我會說重要的是 - 好吧，問題實際上是歐洲可用的能源太少了。所以我的意思是我們能做的最好的事情就是為歐洲生產更多的天然氣。所以這顯然是我們想要做的。我們看到的是那種定價，市場價格是管理需求和供應的最佳方式。因此，如果我們對運作良好的市場機製做出某種改變，我們最終可能會陷入需求可能過高的境地，並且無法吸引足夠的數量來供應歐洲。

So I think any adjustments to well-functioning market mechanisms needs to be sought very well, too. Then on LNG to Europe yes. As you know, we have a significant gas production in the U.S., in the North West coming off of the Marcellus area. So that is sort of serving the Northeast and U.S. markets. I mean we have access to some re-gas capacity. It's not a big element of our earnings, but we have some. And we will, of course, always consider opportunities, but we know that prices are volatile, both on the U.S. side and the Europe side, and the margin in between, very volatile. So clearly, we will take a very cautious approach in exposing us to a volatility that we can manage.

所以我認為任何對運作良好的市場機制的調整也需要很好地尋求。然後在液化天然氣到歐洲是。如您所知，我們在美國西北部的馬塞勒斯地區有大量的天然氣生產。所以這有點服務於東北和美國市場。我的意思是我們可以獲得一些再氣化能力。這不是我們收入的重要組成部分，但我們有一些。當然，我們會一直考慮機會，但我們知道美國和歐洲的價格都是波動的，兩者之間的差價非常波動。很明顯，我們將採取非常謹慎的態度，讓我們面臨我們可以控制的波動。

The next question is from Amy Wong from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。

I just want to hear -- and I hear from a practitioner in renewables. In the U.S., you've got the inflation Reduction Act. You lot of talk of more policy moving things forward. And also in Europe as well, a lot of the politicians are very vocal in terms of saying trying to remove lot of the obstacles and moving faster on sanctioning projects. So I'd love to just get your thoughts as a practitioner, whether you're seeing a lot of that rhetoric really turning into action. What are you seeing on the ground there?

我只是想听聽——我想听聽一位可再生能源從業者的意見。在美國，你有通貨膨脹減少法案。你們很多人都在談論更多的政策來推動事情向前發展。同樣在歐洲，許多政治家都非常直言不諱地表示要消除很多障礙並加快制裁項目的步伐。所以我很想知道你作為一個從業者的想法，你是否看到很多說辭真的變成了行動。你在地上看到了什麼？

Thank you very much, Amy. Yes. So first of all, I would clearly give credit to sort of the federal offices in the U.S. for putting forward the inflation Reduction Act. I think it's a very, very important one, and we already see that it is attracting capital to the U.S. So as I said, very supportive. I mean there are several elements to it. There is a minimum tax, was called a minimum tax of 15% put on sort of upstream production. So that is something clearly that when we understand the details well, we'll probably have an impact on -- going forward. It will be effective from first of January 2023. So we will come back on the Capital Markets Day on sort of what sort of impact that may have.

非常感謝你，艾米。是的。因此，首先，我要明確讚揚美國的一些聯邦辦公室提出了《降低通貨膨脹法案》。我認為這是非常非常重要的一個，我們已經看到它正在吸引資金到美國。所以正如我所說，非常支持。我的意思是它有幾個要素。有一個最低稅，被稱為對上游生產徵收 15% 的最低稅。所以這很清楚，當我們很好地了解細節時，我們可能會對 - 向前產生影響。它將從 2023 年 1 月 1 日開始生效。因此，我們將在資本市場日回來討論這可能會產生什麼樣的影響。

On sort of the efforts pointing towards the renewable business, investment tax credit is sort of a key. And what we currently have is an opportunity with 30% investment tax credit, which is clearly very important for the profitability in both the Empire projects and the Beacon projects. And with the new IRA, there are opportunities to qualify for a higher ITC based on sort of local content or investments done in the U.S. So that will be very important, but it will take that many of the suppliers will have to establish themselves in the U.S. to facilitate operators like us to use them. So what we typically will see is sort of an inflow of investments from suppliers, and then probably also for investors that (inaudible) into projects. So we welcome very much the IRA on the top level.

在某種程度上指向可再生能源業務的努力中，投資稅收抵免是關鍵。我們目前擁有 30% 投資稅收抵免的機會，這對於 Empire 項目和 Beacon 項目的盈利能力顯然非常重要。有了新的 IRA，有機會根據某種本地內容或在美國進行的投資有資格獲得更高的 ITC。所以這將非常重要，但需要許多供應商必須在美國建立自己的地位美國方便像我們這樣的運營商使用它們。因此，我們通常會看到的是供應商的投資流入，然後也可能是（聽不清）進入項目的投資者。因此，我們非常歡迎頂層的 IRA。

Just a quick follow-up on your comments on Empire and Beacon. Would those tax credits actually move the dial-in terms of your IRRs in the projects?

快速跟進您對 Empire 和 Beacon 的評論。這些稅收抵免實際上會改變您在項目中的 IRR 的撥入嗎？

I mean the use of the investment tax credits are important for the returns in those projects. So the higher the ITC credits, the better returns.

我的意思是，使用投資稅收抵免對這些項目的回報很重要。因此，ITC 信用越高，回報越好。

Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, we have to end the Q&A session now, and I hand back to Mr. Mads Holm for closing comments.

女士們，先生們，為了節省時間，我們現在必須結束問答環節，我將結束評論交還給 Mads Holm 先生。

Thank you, operator. Thank you, Torgrim, and thank you all for your time this morning. As always, if there's any further questions that you have, please contact the Investor Relations team on the usual numbers, and we'll get back to you as soon as we can.

謝謝你，運營商。謝謝你，Torgrim，也感謝大家今天早上的時間。與往常一樣，如果您還有任何其他問題，請撥打常用號碼聯繫投資者關係團隊，我們會盡快回复您。

Also, please note that we plan to host a virtual gas market update, November 14, 3 p.m. CET. So once again, thank you for your time, and have a great day. Thank you.

另外請注意，我們計劃在 11 月 14 日下午 3 點舉行虛擬天然氣市場更新。英語四級考試。再次感謝您的寶貴時間，祝您有美好的一天。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們，先生們，會議到此結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。非常感謝您的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。再見。