艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Emerson second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. (Operator Instrcuctions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations at Emerson. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加艾默生 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。所有參與者將處於僅收聽模式。（操作員指示）今天的演示結束後，將有機會提問。請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在，我想將會議交給主持人、艾默生投資者關係副總裁科琳·梅特勒 (Colleen Mettler)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Emerson's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This morning, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website. Please turn to slide 2.

早安，感謝您參加艾默生 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天上午，與我一起參加會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai、財務長 Mike Baughman 和營運長 Ram Krishnan。像往常一樣，我鼓勵大家關注我們網站上的幻燈片演示。請翻到投影片 2。

This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the Safe Harbor statement and note on the non-GAAP measures. I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

本簡報可能包括前瞻性陳述，其中包含一定程度的商業風險和不確定性。請花時間閱讀安全港聲明和非公認會計準則措施的說明。現在，我將把電話轉給艾默生總裁兼執行長 Lal Karsanbhai，請他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. I'd like to begin by extending my gratitude to Emerson's employees for continuing to deliver differentiated results. I'd also like to thank the Emerson Board of Directors, our customers and shareholders for the trust you continue to place in us. Further, I'd like to congratulate the Test and Measurement team for an outstanding NI Connect last week, in which we introduced the latest technology to enable successful creation and innovation through open, flexible and modular platforms.

謝謝你，科琳。早安.首先，我要向艾默生的員工表示感謝，感謝他們持續提供差異化的成果。我還要感謝艾默生董事會、我們的客戶和股東對我們的持續信任。此外，我要祝賀測試和測量團隊上週在 NI Connect 上取得的出色成績，我們在其中引入了最新技術，透過開放、靈活和模組化的平台實現了成功的創造和創新。

The LabVIEW company is alive and well. Next, I would like to congratulate two individuals- Antonio Pietri, former CEO of AspenTech since 2013, for a successful 29 year career. I would also like to congratulate Vincent Servello, who will lead the business as part of Emerson. Lastly, I'm looking forward to Emerson Exchange on May '22 in San Antonio, Texas. We will showcase our latest innovative solutions across the entire portfolio of Emerson businesses alongside over 2,000 attendees.

LabVIEW 公司依然生氣勃勃。接下來，我要祝賀兩位個人——自 2013 年起擔任 AspenTech 執行長的 Antonio Pietri，祝賀他 29 年的職業生涯取得成功。我還要祝賀文森特·塞維洛 (Vincent Servello)，他將領導艾默生的業務。最後，我期待 5 月 22 日在德克薩斯州聖安東尼奧舉行的艾默生交流會。我們將向 2,000 多名與會者展示艾默生整個業務組合的最新創新解決方案。

Please turn to slide 3. While Emerson continues to execute exceptionally well, we, like all companies, are operating in a period of unusual volatility and therefore, have factored a variety of outcomes into our thinking that inform the outlook I will share with you today.

請翻到幻燈片 3。儘管艾默生繼續表現出色，但與所有公司一樣，我們正處於一個異常動蕩的時期，因此，我們在思考中考慮了各種結果，這些結果為我今天將與大家分享的前景提供了依據。

Emerson delivered a strong second quarter. Underlying orders growth of 4% exceeded our expectations, and all regions were positive, including China. Demand remains resilient for our Process and Hybrid businesses, which were up 6%, and our Discrete businesses collectively turned positive with Test and Measurement up 8%. Underlying sales came in at the top of our guide with record margin performance, and adjusted earnings per share exceeded our guidance by $0.06

艾默生第二季度表現強勁。4%的基礎訂單成長超出了我們的預期，包括中國在內的所有地區都呈現積極態勢。我們的流程和混合業務的需求依然保持彈性，成長了 6%，我們的離散業務整體呈現正成長，其中測試和測量業務成長了 8%。基礎銷售額達到我們預期的最高水準，利潤率創歷史新高，調整後每股收益超出我們預期 0.06 美元

We will go into more detail on the results in the following slides. We have conviction in our process and hybrid markets and are seeing strong indicators for a meaningful second half discrete sales recovery. Our long outstanding supply chain regionalization strategy and global footprint enable us to quickly respond to a variety of scenarios, including the recent tariffs. From these, we have a gross exposure of $245 million in 2025, which we expect to fully mitigate. Ram Krishnan will walk through the details in a few slides. Emerson had an excellent first half, and we are confident in our plans for the year.

我們將在下面的幻燈片中更詳細地介紹結果。我們對我們的流程和混合市場充滿信心，並且看到下半年離散銷售將出現有意義的復甦的強勁指標。我們長期以來出色的供應鏈區域化策略和全球影響力使我們能夠快速應對各種情況，包括最近的關稅。其中，我們在 2025 年的總風險敞口為 2.45 億美元，我們預計可以完全緩解這種風險。Ram Krishnan 將在幾張投影片中詳細介紹。艾默生上半年表現非常出色，我們對今年的計畫充滿信心。

We are guiding underlying sales growth of approximately 4% and raising the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guide, now expecting between $5.90 to $6.05 per share. Our free cash flow guidance is $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion reflecting good performance and costs related to the AspenTech transaction, and we now expect to return $2.3 billion to shareholders through dividend and share repurchase. We're also marking the completion of the portfolio transformation we began in 2021. On March 12, we completed the buy in of AspenTech, which now operates as an independent business unit within our Control Systems and Software segment.

我們預計基本銷售額將成長約 4%，並上調調整後每股收益預期中位數，目前預期每股收益在 5.90 美元至 6.05 美元之間。我們的自由現金流預期為 31 億美元至 32 億美元，反映了與 AspenTech 交易相關的良好業績和成本，我們現在預計透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 23 億美元。我們也標誌著 2021 年開始的投資組合轉型正式完成。3 月 12 日，我們完成了對 AspenTech 的收購，該公司目前作為我們控制系統和軟體部門內的獨立業務部門運作。

We expect the transaction to be modestly accretive to adjusted EPS in 2025, and we are targeting $100 million of cost synergies by 2028, primarily through the harmonization of corporate costs and G&A as well as R&D productivity. Integrating AspenTech is a key priority in 2025, and the organization is energized by the future opportunities with Emerson as we accelerate to double digit ACV growth. Additionally, we have completed the integration of Test and Measurement and have executed all actions to achieve $200 million run rate cost synergies by the end of 2025. We are thankful for the hard work performed by our teams, and we will continue advancing operational excellence as this business returns to growth.

我們預計此交易將在 2025 年適度增加調整後的每股收益，我們的目標是到 2028 年實現 1 億美元的成本協同效應，主要透過協調企業成本和一般及行政費用以及研發生產力來實現。整合 AspenTech 是 2025 年的一項重要任務，隨著我們加速實現兩位數的 ACV 成長，公司對與艾默生合作的未來機會充滿信心。此外，我們已經完成了測試和測量的整合，並已採取一切行動，以在 2025 年底前實現 2 億美元的運行成本協同效應。我們感謝團隊的辛勤工作，隨著業務恢復成長，我們將繼續推動卓越營運。

Finally, following a strategic review of our Safety and Productivity business, which began in November, we concluded the best value for our shareholders is to retain the business. Safety and Productivity comprises approximately 8% of sales with market leading profitability and cash generation. This business is underpinned by demand drivers such as reshoring and domestic manufacturing, and we'll continue leveraging the Emerson Management System to create meaningful value.

最後，在 11 月開始對我們的安全和生產力業務進行策略性審查之後，我們得出結論，對股東來說，最大的價值就是保留該業務。安全和生產力約佔銷售額的 8%，具有市場領先的獲利能力和現金創造能力。該業務受到回流和國內製造等需求驅動因素的支撐，我們將繼續利用艾默生管理系統創造有意義的價值。

Please turn to slide 4. Our industrial software businesses continued to perform well, and the total company ACV is up 11% year-over-year with broad based strength. Demand was better than expected in the quarter with underlying orders growing 4% year-over-year. Underlying sales were up 2% with our Process and Hybrid businesses up mid-single digits.

請翻到幻燈片 4。我們的工業軟體業務持續表現良好，公司整體 ACV 年成長 11%，表現強勁。本季需求優於預期，基本訂單年增 4%。我們的流程和混合業務的基本銷售額成長了 2%，其中成長了中等個位數。

Emerson generated record profitability again in the second quarter with gross profit and adjusted segment EBITDA margins both matching the prior highs set in the first quarter. Gross profit margin of 53.5% was a 130 basis point improvement year-over-year, demonstrating how customers continue to recognize the value of our leading technologies. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 28% came in well above expectations and was a 200 basis point improvement versus the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.48 were up 9% year-over-year and exceeded our expectations. Emerson generated strong free cash flow of $738 million, a margin of 17%, up 14% year-over-year. Mike Baughman will provide additional details on our financials in a few slides.

艾默生第二季再次創下獲利記錄，毛利和調整後分公司 EBITDA 利潤率均與第一季創下的前高水準持平。毛利率為53.5%，較上年同期提高130個基點，顯示客戶持續認可我們領先技術的價值。調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率為 28%，遠高於預期，比前一年提高了 200 個基點。調整後每股收益為 1.48 美元，年增 9%，超出我們的預期。艾默生產生了強勁的自由現金流，達到 7.38 億美元，利潤率為 17%，年成長 14%。Mike Baughman 將在幾張幻燈片中提供有關我們財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。

Please turn to slide 5. Emerson's trailing three month underlying orders of 4% highlight the strong demand outlook for our business. Process and hybrid markets remained healthy in the quarter with 6% growth and are expected to maintain mid-single digit growth in both the third and fourth quarter. We continue to see significant capital investment in energy and LNG projects to support global demand led by The Middle East and Africa, India, Southeast Asia and The Americas.

請翻到投影片 5。艾默生過去三個月的基本訂單量為 4%，凸顯了我們業務的強勁需求前景。本季流程和混合市場保持健康，成長 6%，預計第三季和第四季都將保持中等個位數成長。我們繼續看到對能源和液化天然氣項目的大量資本投資，以支持以中東和非洲、印度、東南亞和美洲為主導的全球需求。

Our large project funnel, which provides a three year outlook of capital activity, sits at $11.4 billion, and we were awarded approximately $375 million of content in the second quarter. We are also emerging from a prolonged discrete downturn, and our discrete businesses collectively turned positive in the second quarter, with underlying orders exceeding our expectations at 3%. Test and Measurement orders were up 8% with tailwinds forming across the broad based portfolio business, which traditionally has been a leading indicator.

我們的大型專案漏斗提供了三年的資本活動展望，總額達 114 億美元，我們在第二季度獲得了約 3.75 億美元的內容。我們也正在擺脫長期的離散業務低迷，我們的離散業務在第二季度整體轉為正值，基礎訂單量超過我們的預期，達到 3%。測試與測量訂單成長了 8%，而廣泛的投資組合業務形成了順風，這傳統上一直是領先指標。

Aerospace and defense continues to perform well with large project wins in the US, and we believe the favorable macro environment will continue in the second half. While we are seeing sustained positive momentum in industrial and discrete MRO markets, factory automation continues to be a watch area, and we believe demand may be pressured by macro uncertainty in the second half.

航空航太和國防領域繼續表現良好，在美國贏得了大型項目，我們相信有利的宏觀環境將在下半年持續下去。雖然我們看到工業和離散 MRO 市場持續呈現正面勢頭，但工廠自動化仍然是一個值得關注的領域，我們認為下半年需求可能會受到宏觀不確定性的壓力。

Overall, improving underlying demand fundamentals, coupled with easier second half comps, position our discrete businesses for accelerating year-over-year growth in the back half, and we expect to hit double digits as we exit the year. We are watching closely for signs of tariff induced impacts to demand, but we have not seen any widespread indications. April was a strong start to the third quarter with trailing three month underlying orders growth of 7%, and we continue to see significant demand for our Process and Hybrid businesses and recovery in discrete.

總體而言，不斷改善的潛在需求基本面，加上下半年業績較容易增長，使我們的獨立業務在下半年實現了同比增長，我們預計在年底時將達到兩位數。我們正在密切關注關稅對需求產生影響的跡象，但我們尚未看到任何廣泛的跡象。四月份是第三季的一個強勁開局，過去三個月的基本訂單增長了 7%，我們繼續看到對流程和混合業務的大量需求以及離散業務的復甦。

Energy security, self-reliance and energy transition commitments are expected to sustain a favorable spend environment in LNG and power, while near shoring momentum is expected to drive further growth in Life Sciences. Strength in Process and Hybrid markets, combined with a nascent discrete recovery, reinforces our expectations for mid-single-digit growth in the third quarter and for high single digit growth as we exit the year.

預計能源安全、自力更生和能源轉型承諾將維持液化天然氣和電力領域的有利消費環境，而近岸發展勢頭預計將推動生命科學領域的進一步成長。流程和混合市場的強勁表現，加上新興的離散復甦，強化了我們對第三季中等個位數成長以及今年年底高個位數成長的預期。

Please turn to slide 6. Favorable demand trends support our view for underlying sales to accelerate in the second half and reinforce our full year guide of approximately 4% growth. Beginning with Process and Hybrid. We saw growth across all world areas in the first half. First half growth was led by Asia and The Middle East and Africa, with robust investment in energy and LNG projects offsetting continued weakness in China, specifically bulk chemical.

請翻到幻燈片 6。良好的需求趨勢支持了我們對下半年基本銷售加速成長的看法，並強化了我們對全年約 4% 成長的預期。從過程和混合開始。上半年我們看到全球所有地區都實現了成長。上半年的成長主要由亞洲、中東和非洲推動，能源和液化天然氣項目的強勁投資抵消了中國（尤其是大宗化學品）的持續疲軟。

The Americas were up mid-single digits with solid MRO in North America and broad based strength in Latin America. Europe saw low single digit growth with continued momentum in Energy Transition and Life Sciences. We expect Process and Hybrid sales growth in the second half to remain in the mid-single digits, driven by sustained global investment in LNG, Life Sciences and Power.

美洲地區成長了中等個位數，其中北美地區的 MRO 表現穩健，拉丁美洲地區的 MRO 表現普遍強勁。歐洲實現了低個位數成長，能源轉型和生命科學領域繼續保持成長勢頭。我們預計，受全球對液化天然氣、生命科學和電力持續投資的推動，下半年製程和混合能源的銷售成長將維持在中等個位數。

We are planning for gradual improvement in China, aided by easier comps and investment momentum in power and marine. Turning to discrete. Underlying sales were down low single digits in the first half with the most pronounced weakness in Europe and China. The orders recovery in the second quarter and a low base of comparison support our plan for high single digit underlying sales growth in the back half. We expect continued improvement in discrete MRO as well as test and measurement markets with regional growth led by The Americas and Asia ex China.

我們計劃在中國逐步改善，借助更容易的比較和電力和海洋領域的投資動能。轉向離散。上半年基本銷售額下降了個位數，其中歐洲和中國的疲軟最為明顯。第二季的訂單復甦和較低的比較基數支持了我們下半年實現高個位數基礎銷售額成長的計畫。我們預計離散 MRO 以及測試和測量市場將繼續改善，其中美洲和亞洲（中國除外）將引領區域成長。

We now see a more muted recovery for factory automation and continue to see declines in automotive. These dynamics are expected to prolong weakness in Europe and China, although we expect to see sequential improvement in both regions in the second half. The improving business fundamentals reinforced our expectation for low single digit sales growth for the full year. And lastly, Industrial Software ended the first half with ACV of $1.5 billion, a growth of 11%, driven by demand for AspenTech's digital grid management and manufacturing and supply chain suites.

我們現在看到工廠自動化的復甦較為緩慢，汽車產業的下滑趨勢仍在持續。儘管我們預計下半年歐洲和中國的經濟成長將持續改善，但這些因素預計仍將延續這兩個地區的疲軟態勢。業務基本面的改善強化了我們對全年銷售額實現低個位數成長的預期。最後，工業軟體上半年的 ACV 達到 15 億美元，成長 11%，這得益於對 AspenTech 數位電網管理以及製造和供應鏈套件的需求。

DeltaV software recorded double digit growth in subscriptions, and LabVIEW also contributed high single digit growth. For the full year, we expect double digit ACV growth led by a strong EPC project backlog across energy and energy transition with continued adoption for our industrial software across power, life sciences, semiconductor and aerospace and defense.

DeltaV軟體的訂閱量實現了兩位數的成長，LabVIEW也貢獻了較高的個位數成長。就全年而言，我們預計 ACV 將實現兩位數成長，這得益於能源和能源轉型領域強勁的 EPC 專案積壓，以及我們的工業軟體在電力、生命科學、半導體、航空航太和國防領域的持續採用。

I will now turn the call over to Mike Baughman to provide additional color on our financials.

現在我將把電話轉給邁克·鮑曼 (Mike Baughman)，讓他提供有關我們財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Lal. Please turn to slide 7 to discuss our second quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 2%, led by our process and hybrid businesses which were up approximately 4%. Our discrete businesses continued to show sequential improvement but were still down approximately 1% year-over-year. Price contributed 1.5 points to growth. Software and Control grew 7%, driven by higher software sales, while Intelligent Devices was flat due to safety and productivity and discrete automation. Backlog increased to $7.5 billion and our book to bill for the quarter was 1.04.

謝謝，拉爾。請翻到第 7 張投影片討論我們的第二季財務表現。基本銷售額成長 2%，其中流程和混合業務成長約 4%。我們的離散業務持續呈現連續改善，但年比仍下降約 1%。價格對成長貢獻了1.5個百分點。軟體和控制業務成長了 7%，這得益於軟體銷售額的成長，而智慧設備業務則因安全性、生產力和離散自動化而持平。積壓訂單增加至 75 億美元，本季訂單出貨比為 1.04。

Sequentially, backlog was up 3% led by our process and hybrid businesses which were up mid-single digits while our discrete businesses were up low single digits. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 200 basis points to 28% matching our record high from Q1 and exceeding our expectations. Margin expansion was driven by favorable price cost, segment mix and the benefits of cost reductions and synergy realization. Strong profit contributions from test and measurements and control systems and software, which includes AspenTech, accounted for a significant portion of the margin expansion. Operating leverage was 180%.

連續成長，積壓訂單成長 3%，其中流程和混合業務成長中等個位數，而離散業務成長低個位數。調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 200 個基點，達到 28%，與我們第一季的歷史最高水準持平，並超出了我們的預期。利潤率的擴大得益於有利的價格成本、細分市場組合以及成本降低和綜效的實現。包括 AspenTech 在內的測試與測量及控制系統和軟體的強勁利潤貢獻佔利潤率成長的很大一部分。經營槓桿為180%。

Adjusted earnings per share grew 9% to $1.48 up $0.12 year-over-year. I will discuss adjusted EPS in more depth on the next chart. Lastly, free cash flow was $738 million, up 14% versus the prior year. This strong performance was led by higher earnings and favorable working capital. Free cash flow margin for the quarter was 17% and was burdened by $130 million of acquisition related costs.

調整後每股收益成長 9% 至 1.48 美元，年增 0.12 美元。我將在下一張圖表中更深入地討論調整後的每股盈餘。最後，自由現金流為 7.38 億美元，比上年增長 14%。這一強勁表現得益於更高的獲利和良好的營運資本。本季自由現金流利潤率為 17%，並受到 1.3 億美元收購相關成本的影響。

Please turn to slide 8. Q2 was another strong quarter operationally. Bridging from prior year adjusted EPS of $1.36 operations added $0.14. Excluding AspenTech, software and control added $0.04, Intelligent Devices added $0.03 and a full quarter of AspenTech ownership at 57% added $0.07. The completion of the AspenTech buy in benefited the quarter by a net $0.05, $0.07 from the incremental 43% ownership from March 12 to the end of the quarter, less $0.02 from interest expense for debt taken on to complete the buy in. AspenTech operations exceeded expectations, including $0.03 due to the timing of a key customer booking in France. This contract is the largest in AspenTech history and previously had been expected to book in Q3.

請翻到第 8 張投影片。從營運角度來看，第二季又是一個強勁的季度。與上年同期調整後每股收益 1.36 美元相比，營運利潤增加了 0.14 美元。不包括 AspenTech，軟體和控制增加了 0.04 美元，智慧型裝置增加了 0.03 美元，而 AspenTech 57% 的所有權增加了 0.07 美元。完成 AspenTech 收購後，本季淨利潤為 0.05 美元，其中 0.07 美元來自 3 月 12 日至本季末增加的 43% 所有權，減去完成收購所承擔的債務利息支出 0.02 美元。AspenTech 的營運超出了預期，其中包括由於法國重要客戶預訂時機的緣故而獲得的 0.03 美元。該合約是 AspenTech 歷史上最大的合同，此前預計將在第三季完成。

Non-operating items including FX and pension were a $0.07 headwind. The $0.05 headwind for FX is primarily due to unfavorable balance sheet translation with some unfavorable impact on sales early in the quarter. Overall, adjusted EPS grew 9% year-on-year to $1.48.

外匯和退休金等非經營項目帶來 0.07 美元的不利影響。外匯方面 0.05 美元的不利因素主要是由於不利的資產負債表翻譯對本季初的銷售產生了一些不利影響。總體而言，調整後的每股盈餘年增 9% 至 1.48 美元。

I will now pass the call to Ram to review our tariff mitigation plans before I finish up with our guidance.

現在我將把電話轉給拉姆，讓他審查我們的關稅減免計劃，然後再完成我們的指導。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 9. I want to provide a clear picture of the estimated gross impacts of the current tariff situation, both from tariffs recently implemented on US imports and China's retaliatory tariffs on US exports. On an annualized basis in 2024, Emerson imported $1.6 billion into the US, representing 19% of our annual cost of goods sold as raw materials and semi-finished products for our manufacturing plants and finished products to our distribution centers.

謝謝，麥克，大家早安。請翻到第 9 張投影片。我想清楚描述當前關稅狀況的預期總體影響，包括最近對美國進口產品實施的關稅以及中國對美國出口產品實施的報復性關稅。以 2024 年的年化基礎計算，艾默生向美國進口了 16 億美元，占我們向製造工廠銷售原材料和半成品以及向配送中心銷售成品的年度成本的 19%。

The gross incremental tariff impact on these imports driven by IEEPA, steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs amounts to $320 million on an annualized basis. Tariff assumptions for US imports are as follows: IEEPA enacted on February 4 and March 4 are held at 25% Section 232 on steel and aluminum remain at current levels. And excluding China, reciprocal tariffs are modeled at an average rate of 15% to estimate the annualized impact.

《國際經濟與貿易平衡法案》、鋼鐵、鋁和互惠關稅對這些進口產品產生的總增量關稅影響以年率計算高達 3.2 億美元。美國進口關稅假設如下：2 月 4 日和 3 月 4 日頒布的 IEEPA 維持在 25%，針對鋼鐵和鋁的第 232 條款維持在目前水準。除中國外，互惠關稅以平均15%的稅率建模，估算年化影響。

As you can see, most of our gross impact is driven by the 125% reciprocal tariff on imports from China, while the Mexico impact is significantly mitigated as 80% of our supply into the US from Mexico qualifies for USMCA exemptions. In 2025, we expect the gross incremental impact on US imports to be $185 million, around 1% of sales. Now to quantify the tariff impact of US exports into our China operations, we exported $105 million of critical subassemblies and some finished product from the US to China in 2024 on an annualized basis.

如您所見，我們的大部分總體影響是由對來自中國的進口產品徵收 125% 的互惠關稅造成的，而墨西哥的影響則顯著減輕，因為我們從墨西哥向美國供應的 80% 符合 USMCA 豁免條件。到 2025 年，我們預計對美國進口的總增量影響將達到 1.85 億美元，約佔銷售額的 1%。現在，為了量化美國出口對我們中國業務的關稅影響，以年率計算，2024 年我們從美國向中國出口了價值 1.05 億美元的關鍵組件和一些成品。

Under the third round of China's retaliatory tariffs, which went into effect on April 10, we are now exposed to $135 million of incremental cost on an annualized basis. This assumes no waiver or exemption mechanism and the country of origin for semiconductor fabrication will be based on the location of fabrication. In 2025, we expect the gross incremental impact to be $60 million, around 0.35% of sales. So in total, our gross impact in 2025 is expected to be $245 million and $455 million on an annualized basis, which is around 2.5% of sales.

根據4月10日生效的中國第三輪報復性關稅，我們現在以年率計算面臨1.35億美元的增加成本。這假設沒有豁免或免除機制，半導體製造的原產國將基於製造地點。到 2025 年，我們預計總增量影響將達到 6,000 萬美元，約佔銷售額的 0.35%。因此，總體而言，我們預計 2025 年的總影響將達到 2.45 億美元和 4.55 億美元（按年計算），約佔銷售額的 2.5%。

We are mitigating these impacts through targeted surcharges and pricing actions, production reconfiguration using our global manufacturing footprint and additional supply chain regionalization initiatives. In 2025, we're targeting $190 million of incremental price and surcharges in the fiscal year with another $55 million of operational mitigation benefits from inventory on hand and supply chain actions. These mitigation actions will completely offset the tariff headwinds in the fiscal year with carryover benefit to completely cover the full annualized impact we will encounter in 2026 under these assumptions.

我們正在透過有針對性的附加費和定價行動、利用我們的全球製造足跡進行生產重組以及額外的供應鏈區域化舉措來減輕這些影響。到 2025 年，我們的目標是在財政年度實現 1.9 億美元的增量價格和附加費，並透過庫存和供應鏈行動獲得 5,500 萬美元的營運緩解收益。這些緩解措施將完全抵消本財政年度的關稅阻力，並產生結轉效益，以完全彌補在這些假設下我們將在 2026 年遇到的全部年度影響。

As stated in the February call, we had pricing actions ready to be implemented when the first IEEPA tariffs took effect. Pricing actions are underway across all of our businesses, and all increases will be completed inside the quarter, including surcharges to our backlog where applicable. The remainder of our mitigation center around leveraging our global operational footprint that gives us a lot of flexibility to move production capacity around. Clearly, our regionalization efforts over the years put us in a strong position to drive these actions with speed effectiveness.

正如我們在二月的電話會議上所說，我們已經準備好在第一批 IEEPA 關稅生效時實施定價行動。我們所有業務的定價行動正在進行中，所有價格上漲都將在本季內完成，包括對積壓訂單徵收的附加費（如適用）。我們的緩解中心的其餘部分圍繞著利用我們的全球營運足跡，這為我們轉移生產能力提供了巨大的靈活性。顯然，多年來我們的區域化努力使我們處於有利地位，能夠快速有效地推動這些行動。

Mike, I will now pass it over to you.

麥克，現在我將把它交給你。

Thanks, Ram. Please turn to slide 10 where I will walk through the details of our 2025 guide for sales and adjusted EPS. As Lal and Ram discussed, the sustained momentum in Process and Hybrid markets, positive outlook on discrete, strong Q2 operational performance and ability to navigate tariffs put us in a position to guide underlying sales growth in 2025 of approximately 4%, holding the midpoint of our February guide.

謝謝，拉姆。請翻到第 10 張投影片，我將在其中詳細介紹我們的 2025 年銷售和調整後每股盈餘指南。正如 Lal 和 Ram 所討論的，流程和混合市場持續的勢頭、離散市場的積極前景、強勁的第二季度營運業績以及應對關稅的能力，使我們能夠預測 2025 年基本銷售額將增長約 4%，保持我們 2 月份預測的中點。

We expect the pricing actions we are taking to mitigate tariffs to add an incremental point of price. So we now expect total price of approximately 3% in the year. This is offset by pockets of reduced outlook for demand, including muted expectations in China, a slower recovery in factory automation and weakened demand and safety and productivity from continued softness in construction markets.

我們預計，我們為降低關稅而採取的定價措施將增加一個增量價格點。因此，我們現在預計今年的總價格約為 3%。但這一影響被部分需求前景下降所抵消，包括中國市場預期低迷、工廠自動化復甦放緩以及建築市場持續疲軟導致的需求、安全和生產力下降。

We now expect FX to be flat for the year versus the February expectation of 1.5 points of unfavorable FX. Turning to EPS, we are raising the midpoint of our adjusted EPS guide and now expect to land the year between $5.90 and $6.05. We have an $0.08 benefit from the outstanding operational performance in the second quarter. And as Ram outlined, we expect completely offset the earnings impact of tariffs in 2025. The softer demand dynamics mentioned earlier results in an approximately $0.10 headwind for the year, while the impact of the change in our FX expectation provides approximately $0.05 of upside relative to the February guide.

我們現在預計今年的外匯匯率將持平，而 2 月的預期是外匯匯率將下降 1.5 點。談到每股收益，我們提高了調整後每股收益指南的中點，目前預計全年每股收益將在 5.90 美元至 6.05 美元之間。我們從第二季度出色的營運業績中獲得了 0.08 美元的收益。正如拉姆所概述的，我們預計到 2025 年關稅對獲利的影響將完全抵銷。前面提到的需求疲軟動態導致今年出現約 0.10 美元的逆風，而外匯預期變化的影響則相對於 2 月份的指南提供了約 0.05 美元的上行空間。

Please turn to slide 11 for additional details on our third quarter and full year 2025 guidance. We expect our Process and Hybrid businesses to grow mid-single digits for the year, supported by healthy backlog and pace of business. As discussed, discrete orders have turned positive and will benefit from easier sales comps resulting in a meaningful second half recovery and low single digit full year growth in our discrete businesses. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin for the year is expected to be approximately 27%, up 100 basis points over the prior year, but lower than the first half of the year due to the effect of tariffs and segment mix.

請翻到第 11 張投影片，了解我們 2025 年第三季和全年指引的更多詳細資訊。我們預計，在健康的積壓訂單和業務節奏的支持下，我們的流程和混合業務今年將實現中等個位數成長。如上所述，離散訂單已轉為正值，並將受益於更容易的銷售業績，從而實現下半年的有意義的復甦和離散業務全年的低個位數增長。預計全年調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率約為 27%，較上年增長 100 個基點，但由於關稅和分部組合的影響，低於上半年。

Free cash flow guidance is now $3.1 billion $3.2 billion as we have rolled in the impact of the AspenTech acquisition. Strong operational performance in the first half helped offset AspenTech transaction related headwinds of approximately $200 million. Including these headwinds, free cash flow margin is expected to be approximately 17%. For the third quarter, we expect underlying sales to be up 3.5% to 4.5% and FX to be favorable approximately 1 point. Our growth reflects the continued positive environment for our Process and Hybrid businesses and a return to growth in our discrete businesses. We expect adjusted segment EBITDA margin of approximately 27% and adjusted EPS between $1.48 and $1.52.

由於我們已經考慮到 AspenTech 收購的影響，自由現金流指導現在為 31 億美元至 32 億美元。上半年強勁的營運業績幫助抵消了與 AspenTech 交易相關的約 2 億美元的不利因素。包括這些不利因素在內，自由現金流利潤率預計約為 17%。對於第三季度，我們預計基本銷售額將成長 3.5% 至 4.5%，外匯匯率將上漲約 1 個百分點。我們的成長反映了流程和混合業務持續的積極環境以及離散業務的恢復成長。我們預計調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率約為 27%，調整後的每股收益在 1.48 美元至 1.52 美元之間。

Please turn to slide 12. Emerson has remained committed to disciplined capital allocation through the portfolio transformation, and we will continue to have four primary capital allocation priorities. The first remains reinvestment in the business to foster organic growth, and Emerson will continue these high return investments to support our 4% to 7% growth framework. We are in our 69th year of increased dividends per share and expect to distribute $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividend in 2025. The dividend will continue to be a priority.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。艾默生始終致力於透過投資組合轉型實現嚴格的資本配置，我們將繼續把四個主要的資本配置重點放在第一位。首先仍然是對業務進行再投資以促進有機成長，艾默生將繼續進行這些高回報投資以支持我們 4% 至 7% 的成長框架。我們已連續 69 年增加每股股息，預計 2025 年將透過股息派發 12 億美元給股東。股息仍將是優先事項。

Our A2A credit ratings are also a priority for Emerson and influence how we manage our balance sheet and capital allocation decisions. The decision to retain the S&P business makes debt paydown a priority over the next two years. We have updated our guidance for fiscal '25 share repurchase to $1.1 billion which was completed in the first half. As we look beyond 2025, we expect to have available approximately $2.5 billion of free cash flow over the next two years to allocate to share repurchase and strategic bolt on M&A. With this plan, we expect to bring our net debt to adjusted EBITDA back to approximately two times by the end of fiscal 2027.

我們的 A2A 信用評級也是艾默生優先考慮的事項，它影響我們如何管理資產負債表和資本配置決策。保留標準普爾業務的決定使得償還債務成為未來兩年​​的首要任務。我們已將 25 財年股票回購預期更新至 11 億美元，並已於上半年完成。展望 2025 年後，我們預計未來兩年將有約 25 億美元的自由現金流可用於股票回購和策略性附加併購。透過該計劃，我們預計到 2027 財年末，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率將恢復到約兩倍。

And with that, we will now turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

現在，我們將把電話轉回給接線員進行問答。

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美國銀行美林證券的 Andrew Obin。

Just a question on discrete automation. Clearly, you guys are seeing some momentum, right, you're highlighting test and measurement orders, but at the same time you're highlighting factory automation limited recovery. So what exactly is getting better in discrete, what end markets?

這只是一個關於離散自動化的問題。顯然，你們看到了一些勢頭，對吧，你們強調了測試和測量訂單，但同時你們也強調了工廠自動化有限的復甦。那麼，分立元件究竟在哪些終端市場上表現得更好呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So a couple of things here. First on Test and Measurement. The recovery in the Test and Measurement business has been driven by the portfolio business and aerospace and defense. The portfolio business is a broad based business with tens of thousands of customers and is a great indicator of industrial activity across the world.

這裡有幾件事。首先是測試和測量。測試與測量業務的復甦受到投資組合業務以及航空航太和國防的推動。該投資組合業務範圍廣泛，擁有數萬名客戶，是全球工業活動的良好指標。

We continue to be muted in semiconductor, although recovering, and certainly down on automotive. We saw those same negative trends in automotive across the traditional Emerson discrete business. That's predominantly impacting our China and Germany business, which has a higher exposure to automotive, although we see some of that in the US as well.

儘管半導體產業正在復甦，但我們在半導體產業仍然表現平平，汽車產業則明顯下滑。我們在傳統的艾默生離散業務中也看到了汽車領域同樣的負面趨勢。這主要影響了我們在中國和德國的業務，這兩個國家對汽車業務的依賴程度較高，不過我們在美國也看到了一些類似的情況。

Now in terms of positives and underlying discrete, we saw some green shoots across a number of industries, some of the packaging industries, MRO markets and applications, which turned positive for us as well in the quarter. So overall, certainly in a different place than we were a quarter ago at plus 3%, but very encouraged about the churn in test and measurement. We believe that is sustained as we indicated in our materials and accelerating as we go through the year.

現在就積極因素和潛在的離散因素而言，我們看到許多行業、一些包裝行業、MRO 市場和應用程式出現了一些復甦跡象，這對我們來說在本季度也產生了積極影響。因此，總體而言，與上一季相比，我們的業績肯定有所不同，當時的成長率為 3%，但我們對測試和測量業務的業績感到非常鼓舞。我們相信，正如我們在材料中所指出的，這種趨勢將會持續下去，隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢將會加速。

Thank you. And just a follow-up question. If you look at the pharma announcements out there, right, I think Roche is talking about $50 billion in spend, Novartis $23 billion, J&J $55 billion, Eli Lilly $27 billion, I mean, these are like sort of semiconductor like numbers and you guys do have a very strong position in this market. Just from your perspective, how much of it is political posturing and how much of it you actually see in your discussions with the customers and when should we start seeing it at this activity if it is in fact real in your orders because clearly one of your strongest global franchises?

謝謝。這只是一個後續問題。如果你看外面的製藥公告，我認為羅氏談論的支出是 500 億美元，諾華是 230 億美元，強生是 550 億美元，禮來是 270 億美元，我的意思是，這些都是類似半導體的數字，你們在這個市場上確實佔有非常強勢的地位。僅從您的角度來看，其中有多少是政治姿態？在您與客戶的討論中您實際上看到了多少？如果它確實存在於您的訂單中，我們應該什麼時候開始在這項活動中看到它？因為這顯然是您最強大的全球特許經營權之一？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no, I think it's very real. I think companies are making serious commitments around reshoring the manufacturing. We've been speaking about life science reshoring, if you recall, Andrew, for a number of years now as one of the underlying drivers in our business. And we are seeing real activity. Now of course, it takes time. We're seeing some early projects come into our funnel, but early days yet. There's tremendous demand for some underlying treatments out there, weight loss, diabetes. There are new cancer drugs coming onto the market, large molecule drugs being introduced. And you're going to see that those manufacturing facilities and decisions on where to place those facilities are going to be heavily influenced by the current environment. So we're very excited about that. We're well positioned and working closely with all of those customers on their plans.

是的，不，我認為這是非常真實的。我認為公司正在就製造業回流做出認真的承諾。安德魯，如果你還記得的話，我們多年來一直在談論生命科學回流，這是我們業務的潛在驅動力之一。我們正在看到真正的活動。當然，這需要時間。我們看到一些早期項目進入我們的頻道，但還處於早期階段。一些基礎治療，如減重、糖尿病等，有著龐大的需求。新的抗癌藥物不斷湧入市場，大分子藥物不斷出現。你會發現，這些製造設施以及設施選址的決定將受到當前環境的嚴重影響。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們已做好準備並與所有客戶密切合作，共同製定他們的計劃。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Scott Davis of Melius Research

Melius Research 的 Scott Davis

Hey, good morning guys. And congrats on on the numbers.

嘿，大家早安。恭喜你取得這樣的成績。

Thank you, sir. Hey.

謝謝您，先生。嘿。

I just wanted to ask on AspenTech and just get a sense now that you've closed the deal. What do you feel like you can do with the asset now that you fully control the outcome that you really couldn't do before?

我只是想在 AspenTech 上詢問一下，現在我才知道您已經完成了交易。既然您現在完全控制了結果，您覺得您可以對資產做些什麼，而這在以前是無法做到的？

I'll start off and I'll give I'll hand it off to Ram to give his perspective as well. Look, first, we're very excited about completing that transaction. We have a great management team that we put in place, which much like we did at NI is a combination of Emerson folks and AspenTech folks. So I think we have a team that can execute on a plan, predominantly driven around growth. The opportunity here is to drive ACV into the double digit range and sustain that over time. We believe the technology is highly differentiated. And we further believe, Scott, as we'll highlight at Emerson Exchange, that to deliver our vision of boundless automation in the next generation of distributed control system around enterprise software, the AspenTech and DeltaV Ovation platforms collaboratively coming together is going to be critical.

首先，我將把它交給 Ram，讓他也給出他的觀點。首先，我們對完成這筆交易感到非常興奮。我們擁有一支優秀的管理團隊，就像我們在 NI 一樣，它是由 Emerson 員工和 AspenTech 員工組成的。所以我認為我們有一個能夠執行計劃的團隊，主要以成長為驅動力。這裡的機會是將 ACV 推向兩位數範圍並長期維持這一水準。我們相信這項技術具有高度差異化。史考特，我們進一步相信，正如我們在艾默生交易所所強調的那樣，為了在圍繞企業軟體的下一代分散式控制系統中實現無限自動化的願景，AspenTech 和 DeltaV Ovation 平台的協作將至關重要。

Yes. And Scott, I would say we're obviously in terms of the accelerated momentum on the commercial engagements that we've already had with AspenTech, we're very encouraged by that and that should continue both in terms of greenfield pursuits as well as the opportunities we see in end markets like power and life sciences, as well as the installed base of DeltaV and our opportunity to collaborate there to sell more AspenTech software. And then certainly on the technology front, as Lal pointed out, our vision of a software defined automation architecture, this will enable faster execution of many of the roadmaps that we have been working with them on. But now as 100% part of Emerson, we will accelerate their roadmaps.

是的。史考特，我想說，我們與 AspenTech 的商業合作顯然正在加速發展，我們對此感到非常鼓舞，這種勢頭應該會繼續下去，無論是在綠地投資方面，還是在我們在電力和生命科學等終端市場看到的機會方面，以及在 DeltaV 的安裝基礎和我們在那裡合作銷售更多 AspenTech 軟體的機會方面。當然，在技術方面，正如拉爾所指出的那樣，我們對軟體定義自動化架構的願景將使我們與他們合作的許多路線圖能夠更快地執行。但現在作為艾默生 100% 的一部分，我們將加速他們的發展路線圖。

I just wanted to clarify on the sequentially the tariff impact. Do you expect to offset by the end of the fiscal year, calendar year? Can you do it faster than that? It wasn't entirely clear to me, but maybe I'm just missed it.

我只是想澄清關稅的連續影響。您是否預計在財政年度或日曆年度結束時能夠抵消？你能做得更快嗎？我不太清楚，但也許我只是錯過了。

Yes. We will completely cover the tariffs by the end of 2025. We'll cover it obviously as the exposure in 2025 with the programs having momentum to cover it in 2026 as well, fiscal 2025.

是的。到2025年底，我們將完全覆蓋關稅。顯然，我們會在 2025 年將其覆蓋，並且該計劃也將在 2026 年（即 2025 財年）覆蓋它。

Thank you guys appreciate it.

謝謝你們的讚賞。

Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Deane Dray

Morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Good morning, Dean.

早上好，迪恩。

Could you start with the decision to keep safety and productivity? It's got a great reputation, great brands. Did you not get the right multiple for it? It's just maybe it's not the right environment given the macro to maximize value. But just kind of what was the process? And would this be revisited?

您能從保持安全性和生產力的決定開始嗎？它享有盛譽，擁有優秀的品牌。您是否沒有獲得正確的倍數？從宏觀角度來看，這可能並不是實現價值最大化的正確環境。但整個過程到底是怎麼樣的呢？這個問題會被重新檢視嗎？

Look, we did conduct a very thorough review of the S&P business. And through that review, obviously, the external environment has something to do with it. We ultimately concluded that the best value for the shareholders is to retain the business. And Dean, one of the things that this management team has been very focused on through the transformative transactions is value creation for shareholders in terms of not just the disposals but certainly on the acquisition side as well.

你看，我們確實對標準普爾業務進行了非常徹底的審查。透過審查，顯然外部環境與此有關。我們最終得出結論，對股東來說，最大的價值就是保留業務。迪恩，透過轉型交易，管理團隊一直非常關注的事情之一就是為股東創造價值，這不僅體現在資產處置方面，當然也體現在收購方面。

So look, at this point, we feel really good about the opportunities. We do believe the business is well aligned to the macros of reassuring, in particularly US manufacturing. As you may know, this is entirely a US manufacturing business with manufacturing in Elyria, Ohio, with great technology to address those under secular drivers. So look, we will apply the Emerson management system. We see opportunities for value creation within a highly profitable segment leading margins and cash flow and are excited to go to manage on a go forward basis.

所以，從這一點來看，我們對這些機會感到非常滿意。我們確實相信該業務與令人放心的宏觀經濟，特別是美國製造業，是高度一致的。您可能知道，這完全是一家美國製造企業，其製造工廠位於俄亥俄州伊利裡亞，擁有先進的技術來解決那些長期駕駛問題。所以，我們將應用艾默生管理系統。我們看到了在高利潤領域創造價值的機會，領先的利潤率和現金流，並很高興能夠繼續管理。

And then just second question, can you said no definitive signs of slowing, but you also call out pockets of softness in China factory automation and construction markets. If you just step back and say what are the data points that you're basing that on? Is it funnel? Is it kind of any sort of leaping indicators that you think that there's the slowing, the depth of it, the duration and so forth. So for those three pockets of softness, what are the data points that you're basing it on?

然後是第二個問題，您能否說沒有明確的放緩跡象，但您也指出中國工廠自動化和建築市場存在一些疲軟跡象。如果您退一步思考，並說出您基於哪些數據點得出這一結論？是漏斗嗎？您認為這是否是一種跳躍指標，表示經濟正在放緩，其深度、持續時間等等。那麼，對於這三個柔軟區域，您基於哪些數據點呢？

So I'll break it up into a couple of pieces. China predominantly softness in both chemical. We don't see project activity, spend activity to give us confidence in demand in that segment. Having said that, there are other segments in China that are interesting, particularly around power generation in coal and nuclear, and we're benefiting from those investments. We're also seeing nascent growth in China of export EPC business. These are Chinese homegrown EPCs that are now beginning to take their skills and capabilities around the world. So we are participating there. And then lastly in China, the marine business. Shipbuilding in China has become a very large segment, certainly not one that we've been participating in. In terms of factory automation, automotive has a big element to that for us, both in China and in Germany. And we're looking at, obviously, data around automotive spend, but mostly we see that as reflected in our daily orders and funnel activity in the area.

因此我將把它分成幾個部分。中國在化學方面主要表現為柔軟性。我們沒有看到專案活動、支出活動讓我們對該領域的需求充滿信心。話雖如此，中國還有其他領域值得關注，特別是煤炭和核能發電領域，我們從這些投資中受益。我們也看到中國出口 EPC 業務正在出現新興成長。這些是中國本土的 EPC 企業，目前正開始將其技能和能力推廣到世界各地。所以我們正在那裡參加。最後是中國的海運業務。中國的造船業已經是一個非常大的領域，當然不是我們一直參與的領域。在工廠自動化方面，無論是在中國或德國，汽車對我們來說都有很大的影響力。顯然，我們正在查看有關汽車支出的數據，但我們主要將其反映在該地區的日常訂單和管道活動中。

Great. And the construction?

偉大的。那麼施工情況如何？

On overall construction, outside of China, again, we don't see any underlying concerns here at this point in time. But again and some of that perhaps reflected in the recovery in discrete globally. So I don't have any commentary there, Deane.

就中國以外的整體建築而言，我們目前沒有看到任何潛在的擔憂。但再次強調，其中一些可能反映在全球離散市場的復甦中。所以我對此沒有任何評論，迪恩。

Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Good morning everyone, nice quarter.

大家早安，這個季度過得還不錯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Lal, can you give us some more color into the strength of your incrementals in Q2 and how you're thinking about incrementals in the second half. I know you've been talking about good material productivity versus cost and mix has been positive for you. But is there anything else going on? I assume you're keeping a significant lid on cost. Do you expect temporary costs to come back in the second half? Maybe give us some more color on what's going on.

Lal，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下第二季度增量的力度以及您對下半年增量的看法。我知道您一直在談論良好的材料生產率與成本以及混合對您來說是積極的。但還有其他事情發生嗎？我認為你正在嚴格控製成本。您預計臨時成本會在下半年回升嗎？也許可以讓我們更清楚地了解正在發生的事情。

Our leverage for the first half was exceedingly high, about 220%. And there were some interesting dynamics there with FX effect on reported sales. So we had a lower growth at the top line, but we continued to drive all of the levers around profitability. We had some very good mix with AspenTech. The T&M synergies reading through cost controls, as you mentioned and we talked about last quarter. And then the hard work that was done last year around restructurings was in the second half of the year was reading through in the first half of the year. The second half of the year, this year, the leverage will probably look, in fact, a little lower than traditional.

我們上半年的槓桿率非常高，大約是220%。並且存在一些有趣的動態，外匯對報告的銷售額有影響。因此，我們的營收成長較低，但我們繼續推動所有獲利槓桿。我們與 AspenTech 進行了一些非常好的融合。正如您所提到的以及我們上個季度所討論的，T＆M 協同效應透過成本控制實現。去年圍繞重組所做的艱苦工作是在下半年完成的，並在上半年完成了。今年下半年，槓桿率實際上可能會比傳統水準略低。

And there's a couple of things going on, mainly FX flips on us and the tariff impact, where we'll have a lot of sales coming through with no incremental profit but fully offset, as Ram talked about. And the profitability will be a little bit lower due to the AspenTech timing that we talked about. They had the large sale that booked in Q2 that was modeled in for Q3. So on balance, we're looking at a great year with 60%-ish expected incremental leverage in the full year.

而且還有幾件事正在發生，主要是外匯波動和關稅的影響，正如拉姆所說的那樣，我們將有大量的銷售額，但沒有增加利潤，但完全被抵消了。由於我們談到的 AspenTech 時機，獲利能力將會稍微低一些。他們在第二季的訂單量很大，這為第三季的訂單量奠定了基礎。因此，總的來說，我們預計今年將是偉大的一年，全年預計增量槓桿率將達到 60% 左右。

Thanks for that, Mike. And then I want to double click on Aspen for a second. Maybe just a little more color as it enters your portfolio. I think you're originally expecting Aspen to be neutral EPS for FY 2025. It's coming in mildly accretive. What exactly is outperforming your expectations? And I know you talked about greater than 10% ACV growth, but maybe you could elaborate on what you're seeing in the near to medium term in the business.

謝謝你，麥克。然後我想雙擊 Aspen 一秒鐘。當它進入您的投資組合時，也許會增添一點色彩。我認為您最初預計 Aspen 2025 財年的 EPS 為中性。它正在溫和地增值。究竟什麼超出了你的預期？我知道您談到了超過 10% 的 ACV 成長，但也許您可以詳細說明您對短期到中期業務的看法。

Oh, I'll say a few comments and then Ram, if you have something to add. So I think there are two predominant elements there, Andy. The first is timing. Obviously, we exceeded in the second quarter. The timing does matter in terms of the EPS accretion. And the second is our commitment around the opportunities of cost. And the management team has pursued that very aggressively off the bat, particularly around G&A and corporate costs. And we feel really good that this will contribute positively year-over-year. So an excellent start for the business.

哦，我會說幾條評論，然後 Ram，如果你有什麼要補充的話。所以我認為那裡有兩個主要因素，安迪。首先是時機。顯然，我們在第二季度超出了預期。就 EPS 成長而言，時機確實很重要。第二是我們對成本機會的承諾。管理團隊從一開始就非常積極地追求這一目標，特別是在一般及行政費用和公司成本方面。我們非常高興，這將帶來逐年的積極貢獻。這對於業務來說是一個好的開始。

And I think the pace of business across DTM continues to be robust and I think we'll continue to accelerate in terms of momentum and the core AspenTech suites continue to perform very well. So we haven't seen any slowdown in demand and you augment that with the synergy actions that Lal referenced, I think we feel very good about the contribution AspenTech will make this year and into 2026 and beyond.

我認為 DTM 的業務步伐將繼續保持強勁，而且我認為我們將繼續加速發展，核心 AspenTech 套件將繼續表現良好。因此，我們沒有看到需求有任何放緩，再加上拉爾提到的協同行動，我認為我們對 AspenTech 今年以及 2026 年及以後將做出的貢獻感到非常滿意。

Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

欣賞所有的色彩。謝謝。

Steve Tusa with JPMorgan

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩

Hey, good morning. Good morning. Can you just talk about maybe what's within process? What's holding up for you guys and where the strongest growth is and maybe how the MRO is playing in there with kind of the field device MRO side?

嘿，早安。早安.能否簡單談談其中的具體流程？你們面臨的阻礙是什麼？最強勁的成長點在哪裡？ MRO 在現場設備 MRO 方面發揮著怎樣的作用？

Look, MRO was about 62% of sales in the quarter, so it continues to be robust, which is important, and we watch that very carefully with our programs, as you know. But also the capital funnel continues to be important here. The awards at $375 million are relatively balanced. But the three areas that pick out in hybrid and process are life sciences, power and LNG. And we have not seen any arrest in the momentum in those markets and continue to be relatively bullish as we go through the remainder of this year into the exit of 2025 and into 2026. Okay.

你看，MRO 約佔本季銷售額的 62%，因此它繼續保持強勁，這很重要，正如你所知，我們會在我們的計劃中非常密切地關注這一點。但資本管道在這裡仍然很重要。3.75億美元的獎金金額相對均衡。但在混合和過程領域中脫穎而出的三個領域是生命科學、電力和液化天然氣。我們並未看到這些市場的發展勢頭有任何放緩，並且在今年剩餘時間直至 2025 年和 2026 年，我們仍將保持相對樂觀的態度。好的。

And then just lastly, any variability around like the end of the quarter? Any signs of pre buy or unusual customer activity? I know you guys are now guiding the second half for pretty decent order growth. And any kind of choppiness that you've seen out there in the last couple of months?

最後，本季末會出現什麼變化嗎？有任何預購或異常客戶活動的跡象嗎？我知道你們現在預計下半年訂單將實現相當可觀的成長。在過去的幾個月中，您發現有什麼波動嗎？

Yes. I look for that really carefully. And I wanted to put the April order number out there to give you some reflection. We did not see any of that across our businesses. As you know, we're not a big stock inventory business within across the portfolio, but we have not seen any signs of pre buys, get ahead of tariffs or surcharges across the business. This has been underlying demand that has continued to accelerate in the segments that we expected and continued resiliency in Process and Hybrid.

是的。我非常仔細地尋找它。我想把四月的訂單號碼公佈出來，以便讓大家參考一下。在我們的業務中，我們並沒有看到任何此類情況。如您所知，我們的投資組合中並不是一家大型庫存業務，但我們沒有看到任何預購、超前關稅或附加費的跡象。這是潛在的需求，在我們預期的領域中這種需求持續加速，並且在流程和混合領域持續保持彈性。

All right great thanks a lot. Thank you.

好的，非常感謝。謝謝。

Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O'Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can you expand on Test and Measurement a little bit? I think there were at least a couple of data points over the course of the past couple of months that pointed to some push outs that was more production side and the R&D side. Just talk about where you sit on the validation side and end market exposures and why the demand trends for you could be a little bit more insulated from some of the other pressure that's out there?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。能稍微詳細地介紹一下測試和測量嗎？我認為過去幾個月中至少有幾個數據點表明，一些推廣活動更集中在生產方面和研發方面。只需談論您在驗證方面和終端市場中所處的位置，以及為什麼您的需求趨勢可以更好地抵禦外界一些其他壓力？

Yes. So in Test and Measurement, we have four segments, so equally weighted 20% to 25% of the sales mix. Two of those segments, Aerospace and Defense and Portfolio are seeing very, very strong growth driven by underlying demand fundamentals. Certainly, the portfolio business, which is a broad variety of end markets, 30,000 plus customers, and mostly sold through distributors and integrators represents the broadest exposure that we have to customers.

是的。因此，在測試和測量方面，我們有四個部分，分別佔銷售組合的 20％ 到 25％。其中兩個領域，航空航太和國防以及投資組合，在潛在需求基本面的推動下，實現了非常強勁的成長。當然，投資組合業務涉及廣泛的終端市場、超過 30,000 個客戶，並且主要透過經銷商和整合商銷售，這代表了我們面向客戶的最廣泛接觸。

And so, strength in that segment bodes well for the overall recovery in the Test and Measurement markets overall. And then the Aerospace and Defense piece is stimulated by focused customer spending at large accounts. So those two markets are very strong. Semiconductors, we are seeing recovery. We expect further recovery into the second half supported by earnings releases from the likes of TI, for example, that saw robust demand for their analog segment. We play in analog and mixed signal, RF and mixed signal. So we expect that trend to get positive in the second half. The only segment where we haven't seen any signs of a recovery is the automotive piece, which is primarily EV battery testing. That's the one part that we're watching. But certainly, three of the four markets that we play in, we see strong fundamental demand.

因此，該領域的強勁表現預示著整個測試與測量市場的全面復甦。然後，航空航太和國防部部分受到大客戶集中支出的刺激。所以這兩個市場非常強勁。半導體，我們正在看到復甦。我們預計，受德州儀器 (TI) 等公司獲利報告的支撐，下半年市場將進一步復甦，因為這些公司的模擬業務需求強勁。我們從事類比和混合訊號、射頻和混合訊號業務。因此我們預計下半年這一趨勢將會轉為正面。我們唯一沒有看到復甦跡象的領域是汽車領域，主要是電動車電池測試。這是我們正在觀看的一部分。但可以肯定的是，在我們所涉足的四個市場中的三個市場中，我們看到了強勁的基本需求。

That's great color. And then, Lal, just wanted to ask on the portfolio and the comments in the release about portfolio transformation is complete now with Aspen buy in. As you think about moving forward and capital available for bolt ons, how should we think about the sizing of that and thresholds that you think about where the types of deal values that we could see, but a threshold above which you just really wouldn't have an appetite for?

顏色真棒。然後，拉爾，我只是想問一下投資組合的情況，新聞稿中關於投資組合轉型的評論現在已經隨著阿斯彭的收購而完成。當您考慮向前發展和可用於附加功能的資本時，我們應該如何考慮其規模和門檻？您認為我們可以看到哪些類型的交易價值，但高於這個門檻您實際上就不會有興趣？

Yeah, no, I think it's, as we talked about in prior quarters, going forward, we're really thinking about bolt on opportunities across the business. The way we scale those are sub billion dollars. But again, we have to balance that with the overall capital allocation requirements in the business. We're committed around share repurchase and the dividend. Of course, we have the debt pay down issue that Mike described. But with that said, we'll have ample room for those opportunities if they present themselves or they come into the market.

是的，不，我認為，正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的那樣，展望未來，我們確實在考慮整個業務中的附加機會。我們將其規模定為十億美元以下。但同樣，我們必須在業務的整體資本配置要求與此之間取得平衡。我們致力於股票回購和股利。當然，我們有麥克所描述的債務償還問題。但話雖如此，如果這些機會出現或進入市場，我們將有足夠的空間來應對。

But at this point in time, really a focus on running and delivering value with the company we've created, which I think can create the most value through organic growth and investment in the company.

但目前，我們真正關注的是經營和創造我們所創建的公司的價值，我認為這可以透過公司的有機成長和投資創造最大的價值。

Oh good to hear.

噢，很高興聽到這個消息。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks Joe.

謝謝喬。

Ken Newman with KeyBanc.

KeyBanc 的 Ken Newman。

Hey, good morning. This is Katie Fleischer on for Ken. I was just wondering if you could give some more color around slide 5. Orders are up about 4% in 2Q and then mid-single digits in 3Q and high single digits in 4Q. So how does that translate to the second half sales that are expected to be softer? Is that just driven more by mix or higher conservatism? Any color on that, please.

嘿，早安。凱蒂·弗萊舍 (Katie Fleischer) 代替肯 (Ken) 發言。我只是想知道您是否可以為幻燈片 5 添加更多顏色。第二季訂單量成長約 4%，第三季成長中個位數，第四季成長高個位數。那麼，這如何解釋預計下半年銷售額會下降的情況呢？這是否更多地受到混合或更高保守主義的影響？請問，任何顏色都可以。

I don't quite understand. So the order acceleration gives us confidence in the second half sales acceleration that we have in the plan, which then delivers approximately 4% underlying sales growth overall for the year. If you recall, we grew slightly under 2% in the first quarter at around 2% now in the second quarter, and we'll finish at underlying sales of 4% for the year. So it's an acceleration supported by the order ramp that we're seeing.

我不太明白。因此，訂單加速讓我們對計劃中的下半年銷售加速充滿信心，這將為全年帶來約 4% 的潛在銷售成長。如果你還記得的話，我們第一季的銷售額成長率略低於 2%，而第二季的成長率目前約為 2%，全年基本銷售額成長率將達到 4%。因此，我們看到的是訂單增加所帶來的加速。

Oh, okay. And then any color that you can give on the strategic project funnel? Noticed that slide wasn't included in the deck, so any additional details there would be helpful.

哦好的。那麼，您能為戰略項目漏斗提供什麼顏色嗎？注意到投影片沒有包含在簡報中，因此任何額外的細節都會有幫助。

Yeah, no, I shared that in my opening remarks. It's $11.4 billion in size. We were awarded $375 million of projects in the queue. That's generally consistent with awards over the last few quarters around that $350 million to $400 million range. And it was broad based across LNG, power, life sciences and sustainability decarbonization.

是的，不，我在開場白中已經分享過這一點。其規模為114億美元。我們在排隊中獲得了價值 3.75 億美元的項目。這與過去幾季 3.5 億至 4 億美元的獎勵金額基本一致。它廣泛涉及液化天然氣、電力、生命科學和永續脫碳領域。

And that concludes the question and answer session as well as the call itself. Thank you so much for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

問答環節和通話本身就到此結束。非常感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。