艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Emerson fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Colleen Mettler, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

各位來賓，歡迎參加艾默生2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。現在我謹將會議交給主持人，投資人關係副總裁科琳‧梅特勒。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning and thank you for joining Emerson's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. This morning, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website.

早安，感謝各位參加艾默生2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議。今天上午，與我一同出席的有總裁兼執行長拉爾·卡爾桑拜、財務長麥克·鮑曼和營運長拉姆·克里希南。像往常一樣，我鼓勵大家觀看我們網站上提供的幻燈片演示。

Please turn to Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor statement and note on the non-GAAP measures. Before we begin the presentation, I would like to highlight our upcoming 2025 investor conference on November 20. We are looking forward to presenting on our transformed company, a global automation leader set to deliver a differentiated value creation framework.

請翻到第二張幻燈片。本次簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在一定程度的商業風險和不確定性。請花時間閱讀安全港聲明和關於非GAAP指標的說明。在正式開始演講之前，我想重點介紹我們即將於 11 月 20 日舉行的 2025 年投資者大會。我們期待向大家展示我們轉型後的公司，一個全球自動化領域的領導者，致力於提供差異化的價值創造框架。

We will discuss the drivers of our 4% to 7% organic growth framework, detail our plans for additional margin expansion and outline our capital allocation priorities. Additional information about this event is now available on our website. I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

我們將探討實現 4% 至 7% 有機成長框架的驅動因素，詳細闡述我們進一步擴大利潤率的計劃，並概述我們的資本配置優先事項。有關本次活動的更多信息，請訪問我們的網站。現在我將把電話交給艾默生公司總裁兼執行長拉爾·卡爾桑拜，請他致開幕詞。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. 2025 marked the 135th anniversary of our company. The Emerson Electric Manufacturing Company was established in St. Louis, Missouri in 1890. The development of a reliable electric motor was the vision of 2 Scotland born brothers, Charles and Alexander Meston, made possible by the financial backing of John Wesley Emerson, a former union army officer, judge and lawyer.

謝謝你，科琳。早安. 2025年是我們公司成立135週年。艾默生電氣製造公司於 1890 年在密蘇裡州聖路易市成立。可靠的電動馬達的研製是出生於蘇格蘭的查爾斯·梅斯頓和亞歷山大·梅斯頓兩兄弟的願景，而前聯邦軍官、法官兼律師約翰·韋斯利·愛默生的資助使這一願景成為可能。

Throughout nearly one and a half century of economic cycles, The Great Depression, 2 World Wars, significant technology innovations and a handful of iconic industrial leaders who navigated uncertain waters, our company completed 2025 stronger than ever. We have transformed.

在近一個半世紀的經濟週期、大蕭條、兩次世界大戰、重大技術創新以及少數標誌性工業領袖引領下，我們公司在2025年比以往任何時候都更加強大。我們已經蛻變。

We have momentum in our markets. We have great people, and we are optimistic about our future. Thank you to the 70,000 Emerson employees around the world, to our management team, our Board of Directors and our investors for your trust. I am honored to work alongside each and every one of you in our value creation journey.

我們的市場發展勢頭強勁。我們擁有優秀的人才，我們對未來充滿信心。感謝全球 7 萬名艾默生員工、管理團隊、董事會和投資者的信任。我很榮幸能與各位並肩工作，共同創造價值。

Please turn to Slide 3. Emerson continues to see resilient demand as customers invest in automation technologies to drive digital transformation and enhance efficiency, reliability and safety in their operations. Underlying orders grew 6% in the fourth quarter, driven by sustained demand in our growth verticals and accelerating orders growth in Test & Measurement up 27% and exceeding our expectations. We had a robust finish to the quarter, and I will discuss more details on demand on the next slide. 2025 was another solid year from Emerson.

請翻到幻燈片3。隨著客戶投資自動化技術以推動數位轉型並提高營運效率、可靠性和安全性，艾默生持續看到強勁的需求。第四季度基礎訂單成長了 6%，這主要得益於我們成長垂直領域的持續需求，以及測試與測量業務訂單成長加速（成長 27%），超出了我們的預期。本季末業績表現強勁，我將在下一張投影片中詳細討論需求方面的情況。 2025年對艾默生來說又是穩健的一年。

Underlying sales in the fourth quarter were up 4%. Execution was strong in the quarter with adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.5% up 1.3 points. We delivered $1.62 adjusted earnings per share in the quarter, at the top end of our guide.

第四季基礎銷售額成長4%。本季執行情況良好，調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.5%，成長 1.3 個百分點。本季我們實現了調整後每股收益 1.62 美元，達到我們預期範圍的上限。

For the full year, underlying sales grew 3%, slightly below expectations as Europe and China were softer than initially expected. Emerson delivered strong profitability with adjusted earnings per share of $6, up 9%; and free cash flow of $3.24 billion up 12% year-over-year. Annual contract value of our software grew 10% year-over-year and ended the year at $1.56 billion.

全年來看，基礎銷售額成長了3%，略低於預期，原因是歐洲和中國市場表現弱於預期。艾默生公司獲利能力強勁，調整後每股收益為 6 美元，成長 9%；自由現金流為 32.4 億美元，較去年同期成長 12%。我們的軟體年度合約價值年增 10%，年底達到 15.6 億美元。

For fiscal 2026 we are guiding sales growth of 5.5% with underlying sales growth of approximately 4%, supported by sustained investment in our growth verticals and robust performance in Test & Measurement. We expect to deliver adjusted segment EBITDA margin of approximately 28% and adjusted earnings per share of $6.35 to $6.55, reflecting strong operational execution.

2026 財年，我們預期銷售額將成長 5.5%，其中基礎銷售額成長約 4%，這得益於我們對成長垂直領域的持續投資以及測試與測量領域的強勁表現。我們預計調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率約為 28%，調整後每股收益為 6.35 至 6.55 美元，這反映了強勁的營運執行力。

ACV is projected to grow 10% plus as customers further invest to advance their digital transformation ambitions. We plan to return approximately $2.2 billion of capital to shareholders, $1 billion in share repurchases and $1.2 billion in dividends including a 5% dividend per share increase. Please turn to Slide 4.

隨著客戶進一步投資以推進其數位轉型目標，預計年度合約價值 (ACV) 將成長 10% 以上。我們計劃向股東返還約 22 億美元的資本，其中 10 億美元用於股票回購，12 億美元用於派發股息，包括每股股息增加 5%。請翻到第4頁投影片。

Emerson delivered 6% underlying orders growth in the fourth quarter. marking our third consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit growth. This reflects sustained momentum across key geographies, and we are seeing broad-based strength in North America, India and the Middle East and Africa. However, demand in Europe and China continues to be soft.

艾默生第四季基本訂單成長6%，連續第三個季度實現個位數中段成長。這反映了各主要地區持續的成長勢頭，我們看到北美、印度、中東和非洲等地區都呈現出廣泛的強勁勢頭。然而，歐洲和中國的需求依然疲軟。

MRO spend across our $155 billion installed base remains resilient, supporting a healthy pace of business led by strength in North America. The capital cycle remains constructive and large project bookings in power, LNG, life sciences and aerospace and defense contributed to a better-than-expected finish to September. Momentum in power continues to build and orders in our Ovation business were up 18% in the quarter and 30% in the year, driven by greenfield projects and modernization.

我們1,550億美元的裝置容量的MRO支出依然保持韌性，支撐著健康的業務發展步伐，而北美市場的強勁表現更是錦上添花。資本週期依然保持建設性，電力、液化天然氣、生命科學以及航空航太和國防領域的大型專案訂單促成了9月份好於預期的收官。電力業務的成長勢頭持續增強，在新建項目和現代化改造的推動下，我們 Ovation 業務的訂單在本季度增長了 18%，全年增長了 30%。

Test & Measurement orders were up 27% in the fourth quarter with robust growth in all regions led by semiconductor, aerospace and defense and a broad-based portfolio business. Please turn to Slide 5.

第四季度測試與測量訂單增長了 27%，所有地區均實現強勁增長，其中半導體、航空航天和國防以及廣泛的業務組合表現突出。請翻到第5張投影片。

Emerson continues to see success in our growth platforms. Our technology leadership and ability to deliver differentiated solutions are enabling us to capture large-scale opportunities and drive sustainable growth. And I'd like to highlight a few key wins from the quarter that supported our 6% orders growth. First, I will highlight two projects in power demonstrating strong adoption of our Ovation 4.0 Distributed Control System. In August, we talked about Ovation winning two greenfield combined cycle plants with Entergy.

艾默生在成長平台方面持續取得成功。我們在技術上的領先地位和提供差異化解決方案的能力，使我們能夠抓住大規模的機遇，並推動永續成長。我想重點介紹本季取得的幾項關鍵成果，這些成果支撐了我們 6% 的訂單成長。首先，我將重點介紹兩個正在運行的項目，這兩個項目充分體現了我們 Ovation 4.0 分散式控制系統的廣泛應用。8 月份，我們談到了 Ovation 公司與 Entergy 公司合作贏得兩座新建聯合循環發電廠。

Ovation 4.0 has now been selected by Entergy to automate three more power generation facilities. Entergy today provides electricity to 3 million customers, and the five facilities will provide approximately 3.1 gigawatts of generation capacity.

Entergy公司已選擇Ovation 4.0系統來自動化另外三個發電廠。Entergy 目前為 300 萬客戶提供電力，這五個設施將提供約 3.1 吉瓦的發電能力。

In another win, Ovation 4.0 was chosen to replace the existing excitation system at the dual nuclear power station in Belgium, unifying the control systems across the site. Doel provides around 15% of the country's electricity, and Emerson will help ensure the delivery of safe and clean baseload power.

Ovation 4.0 再次獲得成功，被選中用於替換比利時雙核電廠現有的激勵系統，從而統一了整個電站的控制系統。Doel 為全國提供約 15% 的電力，艾默生將協助確保安全、清潔的基礎負荷電力供應。

Next, Emerson is excited to announce its support to Bechtel Energy and Woodside Energy in the automation of the Woodside Louisiana LNG project. The liquefaction and export terminal in Calcasieu Parish is a premier LNG project designed for safe, reliable and efficient operations, delivering LNG to global markets. This development can produce 16.5 million tons per annum with a permitted expansion capacity of up to 27.6 million tons per annum. Emerson is proud to be chosen as a key automation partner for Bechtel Energy.

接下來，艾默生很高興地宣布，將為貝克特爾能源公司和伍德賽德能源公司在伍德賽德路易斯安那液化天然氣計畫的自動化方面提供支援。卡爾克蘇教區的液化和出口終端是一個一流的液化天然氣項目，旨在安全、可靠和高效地運營，向全球市場供應液化天然氣。該項目每年可生產 1,650 萬噸，獲準擴建後年產能可達 2,760 萬噸。艾默生很榮幸被貝克特爾能源公司選為重要的自動化合作夥伴。

Last, Emerson was selected as the automation provider for 3 manufacturing facilities being built in Indianapolis by a large U.S.-based life science customer, a major step forward in their near-shoring initiatives and in advancing innovation and efficiency. Emerson will provide our leading DeltaV Control Systems & Software portfolio to enable reliable, scalable and data-driven automation. Through this collaboration, Emerson will deploy state-of-the-art DeltaV technologies designed to accelerate the time to market of next-generation weight management drugs, enhanced production performance and ensure regulatory compliance.

最後，艾默生被一家總部位於美國的大型生命科學客戶選中，為其在印第安納波利斯建造的 3 個製造工廠提供自動化解決方案，這是該客戶在近岸外包計劃以及推進創新和效率方面邁出的重要一步。艾默生將提供我們領先的 DeltaV 控制系統和軟體產品組合，以實現可靠、可擴展和數據驅動的自動化。透過此次合作，艾默生將部署最先進的 DeltaV 技術，旨在加快下一代體重管理藥物的上市速度，提高生產效率並確保符合監管要求。

These wins reinforce our position as a global automation leader and demonstrate the strength of our portfolio in addressing the challenges our customers face today. Our continued success is driven in part by our industry-leading innovation, and we are consistently investing to advance our technology, including investing 8% of sales in 2025.

這些勝利鞏固了我們作為全球自動化領導者的地位，並證明了我們的產品組合在應對客戶當前面臨的挑戰方面的強大實力。我們持續成功的部分原因是憑藉我們行業領先的創新，我們不斷投資以推進我們的技術，包括在 2025 年將銷售額的 8% 投入研發。

In the fourth quarter, we launched 2 AI-powered applications to unlock productivity and workflow automation. First, we launched Guardian Virtual Advisor to enhance our DeltaV life cycle management software. This solution combines Emerson's deep domain expertise and decades of data with conversational AI to help customers quickly resolve issues, optimize system performance and reduce downtime.

第四季度，我們推出了 2 款人工智慧應用程序，旨在提高生產力並實現工作流程自動化。首先，我們推出了 Guardian Virtual Advisor 來增強我們的 DeltaV 生命週期管理軟體。該解決方案結合了艾默生深厚的領域專業知識和數十年的數據以及對話式人工智慧，以幫助客戶快速解決問題、優化系統效能並減少停機時間。

Currently available for DeltaV, we are innovating it to expand across Emerson's automation platforms to support smarter decisions and operational excellence across the plant life cycle. We also introduced AspenTech's subsurface intelligence, a cloud-native AI-powered platform that accelerates decision-making for seismic interpretation. This AI platform automates workflows and improves collaboration across disciplines to help customers optimize production and reduce operational silos.

目前該功能已應用於 DeltaV，我們正在對其進行創新，以擴展到艾默生的自動化平台，從而在工廠的整個生命週期中支援更智慧的決策和卓越的營運。我們也推出了 AspenTech 的地下智慧平台，這是一個雲端原生人工智慧平台，可以加速地震解釋的決策。此人工智慧平台可自動執行工作流程，並改善跨學科協作，以協助客戶優化生產並減少營運孤島。

Please turn to Slide 6. Emerson executed well in a fluid macroeconomic environment and continues to deliver excellent operational performance. Growth reflected sustained momentum in North America, India and the Middle East and Africa, offset by persistent softness in Europe and China.

請翻到第6頁投影片。艾默生在瞬息萬變的宏觀經濟環境下表現出色，並持續保持著卓越的營運表現。北美、印度、中東和非洲的成長勢頭持續強勁，但歐洲和中國的成長持續疲軟抵消了這一成長。

LNG, power and life sciences continue to attract significant investment globally and collectively were up 11% year-over-year. Sales in Test & Measurement accelerated sharply as we exited the year up 12% in the fourth quarter with broad-based strength.

液化天然氣、電力和生命科學領域持續在全球吸引大量投資，合計年增 11%。測試與測量業務的銷售額在第四季大幅成長，年增 12%，整體表現強勁。

Our Test & Measurement business continues to gain market share driven by innovation and channel optimization. MRO for the company represented 65% of sales. Emerson achieved annual records for both gross profit margin of 52.8% and adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.6%.

在創新和通路優化的推動下，我們的測試與測量業務持續擴大市場份額。公司MRO業務佔銷售額的65%。艾默生公司毛利率和調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率均創下年度新高，分別為 52.8% 和 27.6%。

Margin expansion was driven by strong price cost, higher mix of software and the benefit of cost reductions in synergy realization offsetting a 20-basis point impact on gross profit from tariffs. We made meaningful progress integrating AspenTech, realizing $50 million of synergies in 2025 and now plan to achieve $100 million in run rate synergies by the end of 2026, 2 years ahead of plan. Earlier this year, we completed all the actions to achieve our commitment of $200 million of run rate synergies for Test & Measurement.

利潤率擴張主要得益於強勁的價格成本、更高的軟體佔比以及協同效應實現帶來的成本降低，抵消了關稅對毛利 20 個基點的影響。我們在整合 AspenTech 方面取得了實質進展，在 2025 年實現了 5,000 萬美元的協同效應，現在計劃到 2026 年底實現 1 億美元的運行率協同效應，比原計劃提前 2 年。今年早些時候，我們完成了所有行動，實現了我們在測試與測量領域實現 2 億美元運行率協同效應的承諾。

Adjusted earnings per share of $6 was consistent with our guidance. Finally, we generated $3.24 billion in free cash flow, exceeding our August guidance of $3.2 billion and in line with our initial guidance as we offset approximately $200 million of acquisition-related headwinds. Our 2025 performance underscores our commitment to operating results and positions us well to continue investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders. Emerson's alignment with secular trends, leading technology and improving orders momentum reinforce our confidence in our 2026 plans.

調整後每股收益為 6 美元，與我們的預期一致。最後，我們產生了 32.4 億美元的自由現金流，超過了 8 月 32 億美元的預期，並與我們最初的預期相符，因為我們抵消了約 2 億美元的收購相關不利因素。我們2025年的業績凸顯了我們對經營績效的承諾，並使我們能夠繼續投資於成長並向股東返還資本。艾默生與長期發展趨勢保持一致，擁有領先的技術，訂單動能不斷增強，這增強了我們對 2026 年計畫的信心。

I will now turn the call over to Mike Baughman to discuss our 2025 results in more detail and expectations for 2026.

現在我將把電話交給麥克鮑曼，讓他更詳細地討論我們 2025 年的表現以及對 2026 年的期望。

Thanks, Lal, and good morning, everybody. Please turn to Slide 7 for a more in-depth look at our 2025 financial results. Underlying sales growth was 3%. Growth was led by Software and Control, which grew 5%; and Intelligent Devices grew 2%. Our process and hybrid businesses were up 4% and were resilient throughout 2025.

謝謝你，拉爾，大家早安。請翻到第 7 頁，詳細了解我們 2025 年的財務表現。基礎銷售額成長了3%。軟體與控制業務成長了 5%，智慧設備業務成長了 2%，引領了成長。我們的流程和混合業務成長了 4%，並在 2025 年保持了韌性。

Our discrete businesses finished the year up slightly at 1% with lingering weakness in automotive and factory automation. While our discrete businesses accelerated through the year, year-over-year volume was down and represented about a one point headwind to Emerson sales growth. Pricing contributed two and a half points to growth as expected. Underlying growth was 5% in the Americas and 3% in Asia and the Middle East and Africa, while Europe was down 2%. Our backlog ended the year at $7.4 billion.

我們的離散業務全年略微成長 1%，但汽車和工廠自動化業務持續疲軟。儘管我們的各項業務在年內加速成長，但同比銷量卻有所下降，這對艾默生的銷售成長構成了大約一個百分點的阻力。如預期，價格因素為成長貢獻了2.5個百分點。美洲的潛在成長率為 5%，亞洲、中東和非洲的潛在成長率為 3%，而歐洲則下降了 2%。年底我們的積壓訂單總額為74億美元。

Backlog was up 3% year-over-year due to second half orders growth of 5%, which positions us well for 2026. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.6% exceeded expectations and was up 160 basis points year-over-year. 50 basis points of this expansion was due to a favorable software contract renewal year in 2025, and the remaining 110 basis points of improvement came from positive price cost, the benefit of cost reductions and synergies from the Test & Measurement and AspenTech acquisitions, which more than offset inflation and tariffs.

由於下半年訂單成長 5%，積壓訂單年增 3%，這為我們 2026 年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。經調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率為 27.6%，超出預期，較去年同期成長 160 個基點。其中 50 個基點的成長則來自 2025 年有利的軟體合約續約，其餘 110 個基點的成長則來自於 2025 年有利的軟體合約續約，其餘 110 個基點的成長則來自於正向的價格成本、成本降低以及收購 Test & Measurement 和 AspenTech 帶來的協同效應，這些成長足以抵銷通貨膨脹和關稅的影響。

Adjusted EPS came in at $6, a 9% increase year-over-year, and I will provide more details on the next slide. 2025 free cash flow exceeded our expectations. The free cash flow growth was driven by higher earnings and improved working capital efficiency, which helped offset approximately $200 million of transaction-related costs. Our 2025 free cash flow margin was 18%, up 140 basis points from the prior year. Overall, these results underscore the strength of our portfolio, the resilience of our end markets, and our ability to execute in a dynamic macro environment.

調整後每股收益為 6 美元，年增 9%，更多詳情將在下一張幻燈片中提供。 2025 年自由現金流超出預期。自由現金流成長得益於更高的獲利和更高的營運資本效率，有助於抵銷約 2 億美元的交易相關成本。我們預計 2025 年自由現金流利潤率為 18%，比前一年增長 140 個基點。整體而言，這些結果凸顯了我們投資組合的實力、終端市場的韌性以及我們在動態宏觀環境中執行的能力。

Please turn to Slide 8, where I will bridge 2025 adjusted EPS from the prior year. Operations delivered $0.62 of incremental EPS in 2025, which included a $0.15 benefit from higher software renewals in the year.

請翻到第 8 頁，我將在那裡對 2025 年調整後的每股盈餘與前一年進行銜接。2025 年，營運業務帶來了 0.62 美元的增量每股收益，其中包括當年軟體續約率提高帶來的 0.15 美元收益。

Excluding this benefit, solid execution from operations contributed $0.47, reflecting continued margin expansion, segment mix and synergy realization from Test & Measurement and AspenTech. Nonoperating items were an $0.11 headwind due primarily to pension of $0.09 and stock-based compensation of $0.02. Please turn to Slide 9, where I will discuss our 2026 sales outlook by region.

除此收益外，穩健的營運績效貢獻了 0.47 美元，反映了利潤率的持續擴張、業務組合以及測試與測量和 AspenTech 的協同效應的實現。非經營性項目造成了每股0.11美元的負面影響，主要原因是退休金支出0.09美元和股票選擇權費用0.02美元。請翻到第9頁，我將在那裡討論我們2026年各地區的銷售展望。

The resilient demand environment we are seeing informs our view for 2026 underlying sales. The Americas, India and the Middle East and Africa are expected to remain strong drivers of growth in 2026 with muted demand in Europe and China.

我們目前看到的強勁需求環境影響了我們對 2026 年潛在銷售額的看法。預計到 2026 年，美洲、印度、中東和非洲仍將是強勁的成長動力，而歐洲和中國的需求則較為疲軟。

The Middle East and Africa is planned to grow high single digits, supported by a healthy capital cycle and significant greenfield investments. The Americas are projected to be up mid-single digits driven by sustained strength in our growth verticals and MRO. Asia is forecasted to be up low single digits led by robust growth in India and momentum in Southeast Asia and Japan offsetting a flat China.

在健康的資本週期和大量綠地投資的支持下，中東和非洲地區計劃實現高個位數成長。受成長垂直領域和MRO業務持續強勁成長的推動，預計美洲地區將實現個位數中段的成長。預計亞洲經濟將實現個位數低成長，主要得益於印度強勁的成長以及東南亞和日本的成長勢頭，抵消了中國經濟的疲軟。

Europe is expected to be flat year-over-year. We expect growth to come from the trends that are benefiting the power, LNG, life sciences, semiconductor and aerospace and defense markets, which comprise approximately $6 billion of our $11.1 billion large project funnel.

預計歐洲經濟將與去年同期持平。我們預計成長將來自有利於電力、液化天然氣、生命科學、半導體以及航空航太和國防市場的趨勢，這些市場約占我們 111 億美元大型專案儲備中的 60 億美元。

Power, including nuclear, is projected to see robust growth as electrification, modernization of the grid and data center trends drive substantial investment. Energy security and self-reliance as well as energy transition commitments are supporting global LNG projects. Life sciences growth is projected to continue across greenfield projects and capacity expansions to meet demand for biologics and GLP-1s.

預計電力產業（包括核能）將實現強勁成長，因為電氣化、電網現代化和資料中心的發展趨勢將推動大量投資。能源安全、能源自給自足以及能源轉型承諾正在支持全球液化天然氣計畫。預計生命科學領域的成長將透過新建項目和產能擴張繼續進行，以滿足對生物製劑和 GLP-1 藥物的需求。

Semiconductor is also expected to perform well in 2026, with expansions in North America driven by nearshoring investments and government incentives. Lastly, aerospace and defense is set to benefit from investments in new space projects and increased government spending commitments.

半導體產業預計在 2026 年也將表現良好，北美地區的擴張將受到近岸外包投資和政府激勵措施的推動。最後，航空航太和國防領域將受益於對新太空計畫的投資和政府增加的支出承諾。

Please turn to Slide 10 for an overview of our 2026 guidance. For the full year, we expect sales to be up approximately 5.5% with underlying sales up approximately 4%, supported by a healthy pace of business, meaningful growth in Test & Measurement and approximately two and a half points from price. We project Europe and China to remain weak.

請翻到第 10 頁，查看我們 2026 年指導方針的概述。預計全年銷售額將成長約 5.5%，其中基礎銷售額將成長約 4%，這得益於業務的穩健成長、測試與測量業務的顯著成長以及價格因素帶來的約 2.5 個百分點的成長。我們預計歐洲和中國經濟將保持疲軟。

The year-over-year growth is also negatively impacted by about one point due to a software contract renewal dynamic, which I will discuss in more detail on the next slide. Full year adjusted segment EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 28% reflecting strong execution and continued margin expansion.

由於軟體合約續約動態，同比增速也受到約一個百分點的負面影響，我將在下一張投影片中詳細討論這一點。全年調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 28%，反映出強勁的執行力和持續的利潤率擴張。

Tax rate is modeled at 21.5% for the full year. We are guiding adjusted earnings per share of $6.35 to $6.55 and free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. Turning to the first quarter. Sales growth is expected to be 4% with underlying sales growth of 2%. Adjusted segment EBITDA margin is guided to be approximately 27%, and we expect to deliver adjusted earnings per share of approximately $1.40 in the first quarter.

全年稅率以 21.5% 計算。我們預計調整後每股收益為 6.35 美元至 6.55 美元，自由現金流為 35 億美元至 36 億美元。進入第一季。預計銷售額將成長4%，其中基礎銷售額成長2%。經調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率預計約為 27%，我們預計第一季經調整後的每股盈餘約為 1.40 美元。

Please turn to Slide 11 for additional details on 2026 guidance. I would like to take a few minutes to provide further granularity on sales growth and to explain some dynamics affecting margins and EPS growth rates. Our Test & Measurement segment is planned to have high single-digit growth in both the first half and full year, while the Control Systems & Software segment is expected to be down low single digits in the first half due to a $110 million headwind from a lower value of software contracts up for renewal in 2026.

有關 2026 年指導方針的更多詳細信息，請參閱第 11 頁幻燈片。我想花幾分鐘時間，更詳細地介紹一下銷售成長情況，並解釋一些影響利潤率和每股盈餘成長率的因素。我們的測試與測量業務部門計劃在上半年和全年實現高個位數成長，而控制系統與軟體業務部門預計在上半年將出現低個位數下降，原因是 2026 年到期的軟體合約價值降低，造成 1.1 億美元的不利影響。

This headwind is projected to be $120 million for the full year. The underlying health of our Software businesses remains robust with ACV expected to grow 10% plus in 2026, but having fewer contracts up for renewal adversely affects GAAP revenues.

預計全年這一不利因素將達到 1.2 億美元。我們的軟體業務基本面依然強勁，預計 2026 年 ACV 將成長 10% 以上，但續約合約數量減少會對 GAAP 收入產生不利影響。

This accounting dynamic does not affect cash flows and reverses through 2027 and 2028 when we expect to see tailwinds from renewals. The Intelligent Devices business group is projected to grow 3% in the first half and 4% for the full year with sustained strength in MRO across core verticals. Second half growth is supported by backlog phasing and the timing of project shipments.

這種會計動態不會影響現金流，到 2027 年和 2028 年將會逆轉，屆時我們預計續約將帶來利多。智慧型設備業務集團預計上半年將成長 3%，全年成長 4%，核心垂直領域的 MRO 業務將保持強勁成長動能。下半年的成長得益於積壓訂單的分階段交貨和項目出貨時間的安排。

Overall, Emerson expects to grow approximately 2% in the first half and 4% for the full year. Excluding the impact of software contract renewals, Emerson's growth rate is approximately 4% in the first half, 6% for the second half and 5% for the full year.

總體而言，艾默生預計上半年將成長約 2%，全年成長約 4%。不計軟體合約續約的影響，艾默生上半年的成長率約為 4%，下半年約為 6%，全年約 5%。

Please turn to Slide 12 for additional detail on adjusted segment EBITDA margin and EPS guidance. Our Q1 adjusted earnings per share guidance of approximately $1.40 reflects strong operational execution despite a softer sales growth quarter and a tough comparison to Q1 2025. We expect EPS contributions from operations of about $0.05 and nonoperating items of approximately $0.04, offsetting a $0.07 impact from the software contract renewal dynamic just discussed.

請翻到第 12 頁，以了解有關調整後分部 EBITDA 利潤率和每股收益預期的更多詳細資訊。我們第一季調整後每股收益預期約為 1.40 美元，這反映了儘管銷售成長放緩且與 2025 年第一季相比存在較大差距，但強勁的營運執行力依然可觀。我們預計營運專案帶來的每股收益貢獻約為 0.05 美元，非營運專案帶來的每股收益貢獻約為 0.04 美元，這將抵消剛才討論的軟體合約續約動態帶來的 0.07 美元的影響。

As a reminder, Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.38 included the benefit of several dynamics such as discretionary cost containment and favorable project closeouts in Control Systems & Software. It's also important to note that lower volume from renewals impacts Emerson's adjusted segment EBITDA margin by approximately 80 basis points in the quarter.

提醒一下，2025 年第一季調整後的每股收益為 1.38 美元，其中包括控制系統和軟體領域可自由支配成本控制和有利的專案收尾等幾個因素帶來的收益。值得注意的是，續約業務量的下降導致艾默生本季調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率下降了約 80 個基點。

For the full year, the renewal dynamic reduces adjusted EPS by approximately $0.15 and adjusted segment EBITDA margin by approximately 40 basis points. Operations is expected to generate about $0.50 of incremental EPS in 2026 with approximately 80 basis points of margin expansion from positive price/cost and the continued benefit of synergy realization from AspenTech and Test & Measurement. Please turn to Slide 13 for a few comments on cash flow and capital allocation in 2026.

全年來看，續約因素將使調整後的每股盈餘減少約 0.15 美元，調整後的分部 EBITDA 利潤率減少約 40 個基點。預計到 2026 年，營運將產生約 0.50 美元的增量每股收益，利潤率將因正的價格/成本以及 AspenTech 和 Test & Measurement 的持續協同效應而擴大約 80 個基點。請翻到第 13 頁，了解 2026 年現金流和資本配置的一些說明。

As mentioned earlier, we are expecting free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion in 2026, representing approximately 10% growth, which will come from higher earnings and working capital efficiency. During the portfolio transformation, our capital allocation was weighted towards M&A.

如前所述，我們預計 2026 年自由現金流將達到 35 億美元至 36 億美元，成長約 10%，這將來自更高的收益和營運資本效率。在投資組合轉型過程中，我們的資本配置專注於併購。

Increasing the dividend has been a priority for the last 69 years, but the annual increases to dividend per share were minimal during the transformation. Now that the transformation is complete. In 2026, we plan to raise our full year dividend per share $0.11 or approximately 5%, which is a significant increase compared to prior years.

過去 69 年來，提高股利一直是公司的首要任務，但在轉型期間，每股股利的年度成長幅度卻微乎其微。現在改造已經完成。2026年，我們計劃將全年每股股息提高0.11美元，約5%，與往年相比，這是一個顯著的成長。

This raise marks the beginning of our 70th consecutive year of increasing dividends and underscores that long-standing commitment. During the transformation, we consistently completed base share repurchases of $400 million to $500 million per year.

此次提高股利標誌著我們連續第 70 年提高股利的開始，也凸顯了我們長期以來的承諾。在轉型期間，我們每年持續完成 4 億美元至 5 億美元的基礎股票回購。

2023 and 2025 were significantly higher because we allocated a portion of proceeds from divestitures to share repurchase. For 2026, we intend to return approximately $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchase, which we have planned to be ratable throughout the year.

2023 年和 2025 年的增幅明顯較高，因為我們將部分資產剝離所得用於股票回購。2026 年，我們計劃透過股票回購向股東返還約 10 億美元，我們計劃全年按比例進行股票回購。

We previously communicated our intention to pay down approximately $1 billion of debt in 2026. That is still the plan and reflects our commitment to maintaining our strong A2A credit ratings. We ended 2025 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3x and expect to end 2026 at approximately 2x.

我們先前已宣布計劃在 2026 年償還約 10 億美元的債務。這仍然是我們的計劃，也反映了我們致力於維持我們強大的 A2A 信用評級的承諾。2025 年底，我們的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.3 倍，預計 2026 年底約 2 倍。

With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

接下來，我們將把電話轉交給接線生進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets Inc.

迪恩德雷，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場公司

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。各位早安。

Good morning, Deane.

早上好，迪恩。

Maybe just start with some clarification on the software renewal. Is this an accounting change that was impacting the guide here? Or is it really like the timing of your contracts that are up for renewal? And then related, you called out a benefit in your 2025 bridge of $0.15. Is that related to this or is that separate? Because you are expecting to recoup this in '27 and '28 that you called out?

或許可以先從澄清一下軟體續約的相關事宜開始。這是會計準則的變更導致本指引受到影響嗎？還是說，這真的跟你們即將續約的合約的時間表有關？另外，您提到2025年過渡期收益為0.15美元。這與此相關嗎？還是另有其他規定？因為你期望在 2027 年和 2028 年彌補你之前提到的損失？

Thanks. Yes. I'll start with the second half first, which is to say your understanding is correct. And thanks for the question on this contract renewal issue. It's an important dynamic that I want to make sure everyone understands. So we have a portfolio of multiyear term license contracts that have renewal dates over several years.

謝謝。是的。我先從後半部開始，也就是說，你的理解是正確的。感謝您就合約續約問題提出疑問。這是一個非常重要的動態，我希望每個人都能理解。因此，我們有一系列多年期許可合同，這些合約的續約日期跨越數年。

And each year, there are so many that are up for renewal. And this year, we had more than normal that were up for renewal, and that's what drove the $120 million increase that we're calling out on the bridges. Next year, we revert to something more normal, but it represents about $120 million headwind in 2026, and it is an accounting dynamic.

每年都有很多合約需要續約。今年，需要續期的橋樑數量比往年更多，這也是導致橋樑建設成本增加 1.2 億美元的原因。明年我們將恢復正常，但這將在 2026 年帶來約 1.2 億美元的不利影響，而這是一種會計動態。

And remember, since these are multiyear term licenses, you recognize multiyears of the revenue at the time that you execute the renewal. And that revenue recognition pattern is one reason that the ACV or the annual contract value is so important, because ACV has the effect of smoothing out that accounting dynamic.

請記住，由於這些是多年期許可，因此您在執行續約時確認多年的收入。這種收入確認模式是年度合約價值 (ACV) 如此重要的原因之一，因為 ACV 可以平滑會計動態。

And the other important reason to measure ACV is that it more closely approximates the cash that we can expect out of that portfolio in the next 12 months. So as ACV grows, the cash flows grow. So you have it right. That is the item that we're talking about. It's not a change in our accounting. It's not a change in the accounting rules. It's just an accounting dynamic that exists in revenue recognition for these multiyear term license contracts.

衡量 ACV 的另一個重要原因是，它能更準確地反映我們未來 12 個月內可以從該投資組合中獲得的現金流。因此，隨著 ACV 的成長，現金流也會成長。你說的沒錯。這就是我們正在討論的物品。這並非我們會計制度的變更。這並非會計準則的變更。這只是多年期授權合約在收入確認方面存在的一種會計動態。

That's really helpful. And just to make sure I heard it correctly, there's no impact on free cash flow. Is that correct?

這真的很有幫助。為了確保我理解正確，自由現金流不會受到影響。是這樣嗎？

That is absolutely correct. And you made another point that I would like to reiterate, which is that this is a dynamic that will reverse in '27, and '28, relatively, readably over those two years.

完全正確。你也提出了一點我想重申，那就是這種動態將在 2027 年和 2028 年發生相對明顯的逆轉。

Great. And then just as a follow-up on the test and measurement, this was above expectations in terms of orders you called out some of the verticals. Is there anything else in terms of -- have you really turned the corner here because this was an expectation that you would start to see this and you did highlight some share gains, but just, any other color on the dynamics of that business would be helpful.

偉大的。然後，作為測試和測量的後續，就您提到的某些垂直領域的訂單而言，這超出了預期。關於這方面還有其他資訊嗎？ ——你們真的已經扭轉局面了嗎？因為我們原本預期你們會開始看到這種情況，而且你們也確實強調了一些市場份額的成長，但是，關於這項業務動態的任何其他細節都將有所幫助。

No, Deane, there's significant momentum certainly across the three categories that I described: semiconductors; aerospace and defense, which has been relatively robust over the last two years to begin with. And then most encouraging has been the broad-based portfolio business and that's where the multitude of tens of thousands of customers sit.

不，迪恩，我所描述的這三個領域確實都呈現出強勁的發展勢頭：半導體；航空航天和國防，而航空航天和國防在過去兩年裡本來就相對穩健。最令人鼓舞的是基礎廣泛的投資組合業務，而這正是數萬名客戶所在之處。

It touches just about every industry macro that you can name. And seeing that resilience in that business and the return to growth there gives us -- and broad-based geography gives us the confidence that momentum continues and that our guide on Test & Measurement for 2026 is solid.

它幾乎涉及到你能想到的所有行業宏觀層面。看到該行業的韌性以及恢復成長，讓我們——以及廣泛的地域覆蓋，讓我們相信這種勢頭會繼續下去，我們 2026 年的測試與測量指南是可靠的。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Yes, good morning. This is David Ridley-Lane on for Andrew Obin. Just a quick numbers question. Could we get the orders growth by process and hybrid, discreet, and Safety & Productivity in the quarter? And any color that you could give on how first quarter orders are shaping up?

是的，早安。這位是戴維·里德利-萊恩，他代替安德魯·奧賓上場。問個簡單的數字問題。我們能否依流程與混合模式、離散模式以及安全與生產力等方面，計算出本季的訂單成長？能否透露一下第一季訂單的進度？

Well, I think from an orders perspective, process fibrin orders, to your point, I mean, they stayed resilient at mid-single digits. Discrete recovered to driven by Test & Measurement, which exposed in the discrete markets into a high single digit and weights to that 6% orders growth that we reported. S&P orders remained flat to low single digits in the quarter. And we expect good momentum to carry through into the first quarter of this year.

嗯，我認為從訂單的角度來看，處理纖維蛋白的訂單，正如你所說，它們一直保持在個位數的穩定水平。離散物料市場復甦主要得益於測試與測量業務的成長，這使得離散物料市場實現了接近兩位數的成長，並為我們先前報導的 6% 訂單成長做出了貢獻。本季標普訂單量維持平穩，維持在個位數低點。我們預計良好的發展勢頭將延續到今年第一季。

And then in fiscal '25, excluding this timing dynamic, which I completely understand is driven by ASC 606 and was a long-standing driver of how AspenTech's results were reported. But excluding that impact, you had core ops of 110 basis points margin expansion in fiscal '25.

然後在 2025 財年，撇開這種時間上的動態因素不談（我完全理解這是由 ASC 606 驅動的，並且長期以來一直是 AspenTech 報告業績的驅動因素）。但排除此影響，您在 2025 財年的核心營運利潤率成長了 110 個基點。

You're guiding for 80 basis points in fiscal '26. It would seem like you have faster revenue growth, less tariff impact, further Aspen synergies. Are there any offsets to consider thinking about for margins in '26?

你們預計 2026 財年將實現 80 個基點的成長。這樣看來，你們的營收成長速度更快，關稅影響更小，還能進一步發揮 Aspen 的綜效。2026 年的利潤率有哪些需要考慮的抵銷因素？

No, I don't think so. You've got it right. As we look ahead, we've got the drag of the renewals that's about 40 basis points. We've got some synergies, and the operations continue to drive about 60 basis points, which is what the operations have been driving for really the last two years, right in that 50 to 60 basis points range and that's the margin expansion that we consistently talk about driven by the Emerson Management process and what we expect to continue into the future.

不，我不這麼認為。你說得對。展望未來，續約帶來的拖累約 40 個基點。我們獲得了一些協同效應，營運持續推動了約 60 個基點的成長，這與過去兩年營運推動的成長基本一致，都在 50 到 60 個基點的範圍內。這就是我們一直所說的艾默生管理流程所推動的利潤率擴張，也是我們預期未來能夠繼續維持的趨勢。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citigroup Inc.

安德魯‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團

Good morning Andy.

早安，安迪。

Lal or Mike, just digging a little bit more into that first half versus second half organic guide for '26. The growth in mechanics are what they are, but you also talked about the timing of shipments and how they support the second half growth.

拉爾或麥克，只是想更深入地研究 2026 年上半年和下半年的有機指南。機械設備的成長情況就是這樣，但你也談到了出貨時間以及它們如何支持下半年的成長。

Are you expecting any sort of larger project order recovery and or change, for instance, in process markets to get you there? Or is it really just you have the visibility already in the back of the pipeline and everything is -- just talk about the visibility there?

您是否預期會有某種規模更大的專案訂單復甦或變化，例如流程市場的變化，從而幫助您實現目標？或者，你其實只是已經掌握了管道後端的可視性，而所有事情——只需談談那裡的可視性即可？

Yeah, Andy, Ram here. Yes, we absolutely have the visibility and the momentum that we had in terms of orders in the second half phases that backlog into the second half of 2026. That's point number one.

是的，我是安迪拉姆。是的，我們絕對擁有與下半年階段相同的訂單可見度和勢頭，這些訂單積壓到 2026 年下半年。這是第一點。

Secondly, if you take out the software renewal dynamic, as Mike explained, the first half growth is 4%, the second half growth and for an overall growth of 5% minus the software renewal dynamic, which is the core growth you've got to look at and that sequential growth second half to first half versus that is about 11%, which is what we executed this year, albeit with a better backlog phasing going into the second half of next year.

其次，正如 Mike 所解釋的，如果剔除軟體續約因素，上半年成長率為 4%，下半年成長率為 5%，減去軟體續約因素（這是你必須關注的核心成長），下半年相對於上半年的環比成長率約為 11%，這是我們今年的業績，儘管明年下半年的積訂單處理情況會更好。

So we feel relatively comfortable around the second half, first half guide and the software renewal dynamic is what shows up as the 2% and 6%. But in reality, it's 4% and 6% for a weighted average 5% through the year.

因此，我們對下半年的指導方針和上半年的指導方針都比較有信心，軟體續訂動態表現為 2% 和 6%。但實際上，這兩個數字分別是 4% 和 6%，全年加權平均為 5%。

Thanks for that, Ram and there's obviously a lot of excitement about how our markets -- you gave us the data, up almost 20% in orders in Q4, in ovation. 30% for the year but maybe you can give us a little more color on what you're expecting for '26. Obviously, there's particular focus on nuclear. You guys have a pretty good share there.

謝謝Ram，顯然大家對我們市場的表現都非常興奮——你給我們提供了數據，第四季度訂單量增長了近20%，全年增長了30%。不過，你能否再詳細說說你​​對2026年的預期？顯然，重點是核武。你們在那裡佔了相當大的份額。

Maybe you can remind us of that, and we growth is a little bit lower in Q4 than for the year, but do you expect acceleration in '26 in that end market?

或許您可以提醒我們一下，雖然第四季的成長比全年略低，但您預計2026年終端市場會加速成長嗎？

Yeah, Andy. Lal here. No, certainly, we're excited about what we're seeing broadly, not just across generating capacity, but transmission and distribution investments, which, as you know, impacts our Aspen business. We expect to continue to see investments, across combined cycle in the United States, coal and nuclear in China, and nuclear broad-based across Eastern Europe and the U.K.

是的，安迪。我是拉爾。不，當然，我們對目前的整體情況感到興奮，不僅是發電能力方面，還有輸配電投資方面，正如您所知，這會影響我們在阿斯彭的業務。我們預計，在美國，聯合循環能源領域將繼續獲得投資；在中國，煤炭和核能領域將繼續獲得投資；在東歐和英國，核能領域也將廣泛發展。

I think the underlying dynamics of demand, driven of course, by data centers and by the age of the capacity that's in place today should give us a good, and we project a very good three to five-year run in this segment of the business at high single digits to low double-digit growth.

我認為，需求的潛在動態，當然是由資料中心和現有容量的老化所驅動的，應該會給我們帶來良好的發展勢頭，我們預計未來三到五年內，該業務板塊將保持高個位數到低兩位數的增長。

C. Stephen Tusa, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

C. Stephen Tusa，摩根大通公司

Hey guys, can you hear me.

嘿，夥計們，你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Good morning Steve.

早安，史蒂夫。

Just wanted to clarify. So is the first quarter -- the first quarter orders should kind of sustain this, I don't know, like the 5% to 6% type of momentum that you saw in the 4Q? Is that the messaging?

我只是想確認一下。那麼第一季——第一季的訂單應該能夠維持這種勢頭，我不知道，就像你在第四季看到的5%到6%的成長勢頭？這就是你想傳達的訊息嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then just on the bridges, it's hard a bit to parse out the software impact. But I think you have $0.50 of ops for the year, which I think is probably, I don't know, a 45% to 50% kind of core incremental. Am I getting into the right ballpark there? And then in the first quarter, you only have $0.05. Is there a reason why those incrementals may be a little bit weaker, kind of putting the software impact aside?

好的。好的。偉大的。而單就橋樑而言，軟體的影響就很難分析出來。但我認為你今年的營運成本是 0.50 美元，我認為這大概相當於核心增量的 45% 到 50%。我理解的大致方向對嗎？然後，在第一季度，你們只有 0.05 美元。暫且不談軟體方面的影響，這些增量收益為何會略顯不足？

Yeah, . I think your leverage expectation is about right when you look at the quarter that way. When you look at first quarter, it's really this dynamic of last year being as strong as it was with that discretionary cost and some of the project closeouts and the EBITDA margin that quarter, I believe, was 28%, and so it's sort of a comparison dynamic.

是的，。如果從這個角度來看，我認為你對本季槓桿率的預期基本上已經正確。從第一季來看，去年同期業績強勁，這主要得益於可自由支配成本的降低以及一些項目的收尾，而且該季度的 EBITDA 利潤率（我認為）為 28%，因此這是一個比較的動態。

Yeah, and Steve. Yeah, we leveraged the 265% in the Q1 of '25, and it just puts us in a -- it's just a tough comparison, not just -- even if you take out the software renewal dynamic, it's a tough comparison for our base operations, just given the dynamics Mike described.

是啊，還有史蒂夫。是的，我們在 2025 年第一季利用了 265% 的成長，這讓我們陷入了——這是一個艱難的比較，不僅僅是——即使你排除軟體更新的因素，考慮到麥克所描述的動態，這對我們的基本運營來說也是一個艱難的比較。

That makes a ton of sense. Thanks for the details always.

這很有道理。謝謝你一直以來提供的詳細資訊。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow up a little bit more on the trends in Test & Measurement and discrete, automation. So I think in Test & Measurement, you're guiding still for high single digit growth later in the year despite the sort of pretty tough comp there. Maybe help us understand the visibility on that business. And then in the discrete world, any updates on some of the different end market trends, please?

您好，早安。我只是想再跟進一下測試與測量以及離散自動化領域的發展趨勢。所以我認為，儘管測試與測量業務面臨相當嚴峻的競爭形勢，但你們仍然預計該業務在今年晚些時候將實現高個位數成長。或許可以幫助我們了解該業務的可見度。那麼，在離散電子領域，能否提供一些關於不同終端市場趨勢的最新資訊？

Yeah, hi Julian here, and I'll start, and I'll have Ram add some color as well. Now certainly, we have a high degree of confidence in what we're seeing in three of the four test and measurement markets, aerospace and defense, semiconductor and then the broad-based portfolio business. However, and this bleeds over into your discrete question, the automotive business continues to be very weak.

大家好，我是朱利安，我先來，拉姆也會補充一些內容。當然，我們對在四大測試測量市場中的三個市場——航空航太和國防、半導體以及廣泛的投資組合業務——所看到的充滿信心。然而，這一點也與你提出的具體問題有關，汽車產業依然非常疲軟。

We're continuing to see weakness in the packaging machine making business, which is very Western Europe dependent, Italy, Germany and of course, impacted in China and the U.S. as well. So that segment, what has been a traditional discrete market has -- is in the flat to low single-digit range, and you've got Test & Measurement in the high range that brings up our broad discrete orders. Ram?

我們持續看到包裝機械製造業疲軟，該產業非常依賴西歐，尤其是義大利和德國，當然，中國和美國也受到了影響。因此，這個傳統的離散市場細分領域——處於平穩到個位數的範圍內，而測試和測量則處於較高水平，從而帶動了我們廣泛的離散訂單。記憶體？

Yeah, and you said it, and I think from a geographic cut. On the test and measurement side, very strong Asia driven by semicon and portfolio, a very strong North America, driven by aerospace and defense semiconductors and portfolio business, and Europe is probably our most muted region because that's where we have a disproportionate exposure to automotive and the EV side, though the aerospace and defense piece in Europe as well as the portfolio business is strong.

是的，你也這麼說了，我認為是從地理角度來看的。在測試和測量方面，亞洲市場表現非常強勁，這主要得益於半導體和產品組合業務；北美市場表現非常強勁，這主要得益於航空航天和國防半導體以及產品組合業務；而歐洲可能是我們表現最平淡的地區，因為我們在汽車和電動汽車領域的投資比例過高，儘管歐洲的航空航天和國防業務以及產品組合業務也十分強勁。

And then in the core discrete business as Lal described, North America is probably the market where we have good load to single-digit growth in the core discrete business, but Europe and China remain weak in the factory automation and automotive space, as described.

正如 Lal 所描述的那樣，在核心離散業務方面，北美可能是我們在核心離散業務方面實現個位數成長的良好市場，但正如所描述的那樣，歐洲和中國在工廠自動化和汽車領域仍然疲軟。

That's great. Thanks very much. And then just my follow-up question would be around, I know in the past you'd mentioned some of the project funnel was tied to elements such as, hydrogen, clean fuels, carbon capture, and so forth, and I suppose domestically in the US, the outlook there is worse today because of the subsidy environment changing.

那太棒了。非常感謝。然後，我的後續問題是，我知道您過去曾提到一些專案管道與氫能、清潔燃料、碳捕獲等要素相關，我想在美國國內，由於補貼環境的變化，如今的前景更加糟糕。

I just wondered if that type of activity, if you are seeing pushouts there yourselves, and if it's represents much of your backlog or it was just something that was in the prospective funnel, and never really came into the orders or backlogged more fully.

我只是想知道，你們自己是否也看到了這種類型的活動，以及它是否代表了你們積壓訂單的大部分，或者它只是潛在客戶渠道中的一部分，從未真正轉化為訂單或完全進入積壓訂單。

So Julian, thanks for the question. Nothing impacted in the backlog. These were projects that we've been highlighting as part of our funnel. There's been a significant reduction in the outlook of projects in this category on a forward basis, so we have adjusted our funnel, accordingly, but none of it has been impacted in any backlog in the business.

朱利安，謝謝你的提問。積壓工作未受影響。這些是我們重點關注的項目之一。從長遠來看，此類專案的前景大幅下降，因此我們相應地調整了專案管道，但業務中的任何積壓專案都沒有受到影響。

So to give you perspective, the funnel that we showed today at $1.1 billion -- $11.1 billion has approximately a $1.5 billion reduction in SND projects. And so we've removed a large number of carbon capture and energy management projects. We retained those customer engagements that are still relevant at that point, but that's a very significant reduction in the value of the funnel related to S&D, and that's broad based across North America, Europe, and Asia.

為了讓大家有個概念，我們今天展示的 11 億美元到 111 億美元的漏斗圖顯示，SND 計畫大約減少了 15 億美元。因此，我們取消了大量的碳捕獲和能源管理專案。我們保留了那些在當時仍然相關的客戶互動，但這大大降低了與銷售和分銷相關的通路價值，而且這種情況在北美、歐洲和亞洲普遍存在。

And then just to add to that, Julian, the reason the funnel stays flat is we have seen a significant uptick in power generation, certainly LNG, and then continued build out of the funnel in aerospace and defense, and certainly life sciences. So, overall the funnel remains flat, but to your question, appropriately adjusted for the slowness and sustainability and decarbonization project, mostly in North America, but some in Europe as well.

朱利安，補充一點，漏斗圖保持穩定的原因是，我們看到發電量大幅增長，尤其是液化天然氣發電，然後航空航天和國防領域，以及生命科學領域，都在持續發展。所以，總體而言，漏斗圖仍然平坦，但回到你的問題，已根據速度放緩、可持續性和脫碳項目進行了適當調整，主要在北美，但也包括歐洲的一些地區。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research LLC.

Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research LLC。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to probably ask a steeper question on the accounting for AspenTech, so please bear with me here. Can you just explain why this is a one-time issue? And just confirm that this is more of a first half '25 renewal issue comping that as opposed to something this year. So that's my main question. And really, just maybe just talk about the difference in accounting for renewal versus a new contract and why renewals would have this kind of headwind?

謝謝。各位早安。我接下來可能會問一個關於 AspenTech 會計處理方面比較複雜的問題，請大家耐心聽我說。你能解釋為什麼這是一次性事件嗎？也要確認一下，這更像是 2025 年上半年續約的問題，而不是今年的問題。這就是我的主要問題。或許可以談談續約和新合約在會計處理上的差別，以及為什麼續約會面臨這種阻力？

Yeah, Nigel, it's not necessarily a onetime event. It's, again, just how the renewal dates stack up in the portfolio of these multiyear term contracts. And when you go into a particular year, there's going to be a number of contracts that are up for renewal. And whatever that is sort of the revenue opportunity for that year.

是的，奈傑爾，這不一定是一次性事件。這再次表明，這些多年合約的續約日期是如何排列的。到了某一年，就會有很多合約需要續約。而那一年的收入機會大概就是如此。

And we are certainly, in fact, working a bit to smooth that out. But historically, AspenTech was not concerned with the wrinkles that happened because of this accounting dynamic. Again, I want to stress it's nothing new, and it's not a different accounting. It's just the gap that is used on accounting for these contract renewal dynamics.

事實上，我們正​​在努力解決這個問題。但從歷史上看，AspenTech 並​​不關心由於這種會計動態而出現的各種問題。我再次強調，這並非什麼新鮮事，也不是不同的會計方法。這只是用來解釋合約續約動態的一個缺口。

And Nigel, Ram here. Just to add to that. Now as you rightly pointed out, this dynamic is largely driven by the software renewals within AspenTech. And one of the initiatives we will continue to drive going forward is to manage the renewal dates as we renew these contracts to smooth them out in a fashion where we don't see these dynamics repeat as we move forward.

還有奈傑爾，我是拉姆。補充一點。正如您所指出的，這種動態很大程度上是由 AspenTech 內部的軟體更新所驅動的。我們將繼續推進的舉措之一是管理續約日期，以便在續約這些合約時使其更加平穩，避免此類情況再次發生。

It's certainly going to be a tailwind in '27 and '28 given the reset in '26, but we want to make sure that going beyond '28, we don't have another year where we see these renewals build up in a favorable fashion to reverse in the next year. So it's an initiative now that we're driving the integration of AspenTech that Vincent Servello and the team at Aspen are driving. But it's a good question.

鑑於 2026 年的調整，2027 年和 2028 年肯定會是一個順風，但我們希望確保在 2028 年之後，不會再出現這種情況：續約以有利的方式積累，然後在下一年發生逆轉。所以，現在我們正在推動 AspenTech 的整合，而 Aspen 的 Vincent Servello 和團隊正在推動這項工作。但這確實是個好問題。

No, it was a dumb question, I'm sure. And then just thinking about that, in the plan, the acceleration at, within ID from 3% to 5% first half, second half, you called out some backlog timing clearly with that kind of timing we're talking here about longer cycle projects. So I'm wondering, are these greenfield projects, and if you can give any details on some of the some of the marks just driving that acceleration.

不，我肯定那是個愚蠢的問題。然後，仔細想想，在計劃中，ID 的加速進度在上半年和下半年分別從 3% 到 5% 提升，你明確指出了一些積壓工作的時間安排，而我們這裡討論的是周期較長的項目。所以我想知道，這些是新建案嗎？您能否提供一些細節，說明是什麼因素推動了這種加速發展？

Yeah, Nigel, Lal here. Again, I'll reiterate a point that Ram and Mike made earlier. It's important to note that adjusted for the renewals the first half to second half ramp is actually consistent with what we executed in 2025, which is a sequential 11% ramp-up. It would be 4% growth in the first half and 6% in the second half of 5% a year.

是的，我是奈傑爾·拉爾。我再次重申Ram和Mike之前提出的觀點。值得注意的是，考慮到續約因素，上半年到下半年的成長實際上與我們在 2025 年執行的計畫一致，即按順序成長 11%。上半年成長 4%，下半年成長 6%，年增率為 5%。

So that renewal dynamic because it is first half, predominantly first half loaded, really impacts and skews that ramp-up on the underlying business. But to your point, we feel great about the backlog situation. We have good visibility in our Intelligent Device business to execute this plan that we put forward.

因此，由於更新主要集中在上半年，這種動態會對基礎業務的成長產生影響和扭曲。但正如您所說，我們對積壓訂單的情況感到非常滿意。我們在智慧型設備業務方面擁有良好的前景，可以執行我們提出的這項計劃。

And just the projects that you referenced, that are loaded into the second half that we won in the second half of '25 are in Life Sciences, in Power in LNG, many examples that Lal had in his script, but these are the very same projects, primarily Power LNG, and life sciences that will phase into the second half of 206.

而你提到的那些項目，也就是我們在 2025 年下半年贏得的那些項目，都集中在生命科學、電力和液化天然氣領域，拉爾在他的劇本中舉了很多例子，但這些項目，主要是電力、液化天然氣和生命科學項目，也將在 2026 年下半年逐步實施。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

阿米特·梅赫羅特拉，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, operator. Hi, everybody. Sorry, I dialed in a little bit late, so excuse me if this has been asked, but I wanted to talk about, PowerGen, how that funnel is progressing. I imagine there's obviously a lot of electricity demand. Wondering if you could just talk about that, and how much visibility you have and kind of what -- at what point does Emerson enter kind of that power gem life cycle versus, say a turbine?

謝謝接線生。大家好。抱歉，我撥通電話晚了一點，如果這個問題之前有人問過，請見諒。我想談談 PowerGen，以及這個銷售漏斗的進展。我想，電力需求一定很大。我想知道您能否談談這方面，以及您擁有多少市場關注度，還有——艾默生在電力寶石生命週期的哪個階段進入市場，與渦輪機相比又如何？

Good morning. Yes, thanks for the question. We are certainly energized by what we see in the power generation, distribution and transmission markets, just in context of the funnel and the visibility that we have to the business, we added approximately $1 billion of projects, into the $11.1 billion project funnel. That is capturing broad-based modernization and new capacity coming online over the next, let's say three to four years.

早安.是的，謝謝你的提問。我們對發電、配電和輸電市場的現狀感到非常振奮，就業務的整體情況和可見性而言，我們新增了約 10 億美元的項目，使項目總額達到 111 億美元。這涵蓋了未來三到四年內廣泛的現代化改造和新增產能。

The activity is very robust, not just in the United States, but broad based into Europe, and into China. In this segment, that's one area of China growth that we did experience in 2025, and we expect that to continue into 2026. And just to give you perspectives, Ovation today controls approximately 30% of all the power generated in the world.

這項活動非常活躍，不僅在美國，在歐洲和中國也十分普遍。在這個領域，這是我們在 2025 年體驗到的中國成長領域之一，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2026 年。為了讓大家有個概念，Ovation 目前控制著全球約 30% 的電力。

Over 50% in the United States, over 30% in China, over 30% in Europe, and we have great visibility well ahead because obviously we're upstream around turbine and boiler controls to the construction cycle. So we're in those conversations today, early with the utilities around the world as they plan out their investments.

在美國超過 50%，在中國超過 30%，在歐洲超過 30%，我們對未來有著非常清晰的了解，因為顯然我們處於渦輪機和鍋爐控制的上游，直至施工週期。所以，我們現在就與世界各地的公用事業公司進行對話，了解他們正在規劃的投資。

Great. That's helpful and just one quick follow-up on software. I know you have this renewal dynamic happening, but I guess I just wanted to ask, how software, annual contract value is trending versus your installed base. How do you expect that to kind of perform going forward, how do we think about like attach attached rate trends there?

偉大的。這很有幫助，關於軟體方面還有一個簡單的後續問題。我知道你們正在經歷續約的動態變化，但我只是想問一下，軟體的年度合約價值與你們的已安裝基數相比，趨勢如何？您預計未來該領域的表現如何？我們應該如何看待相關附加費率的趨勢？

Yeah. Our ACV, we shared the data -- finished the year at $1.56 billion, up 10%. We expect that to continue into another double-digit year next year. So very, very solid in terms of adoption of software and the cash flow trends are trending with ACV with double-digit growth, and we're operating at a Rule of 45 when you look at cash flow and ACV growth from a software perspective. So very positive trends and consistent with the long-range plan we laid out when we brought AspenTech in.

是的。我們公佈的數據顯示，我們的年度合約價值 (ACV) 年底達到 15.6 億美元，成長了 10%。我們預計明年這股趨勢還會持續，再創兩位數的成長。因此，軟體的採用情況非常穩健，現金流趨勢與 ACV 呈現兩位數成長趨勢，從軟體的角度來看，我們的現金流量和 ACV 成長符合 45 法則。所以發展趨勢非常積極，與我們引進 AspenTech 時制定的長期計畫一致。

Brett Lindsey, Mizuho Securities.

Brett Lindsey，瑞穗證券。

Hey, good morning, all. Just wanted to come back to the power discussion 1 more time. So you gave some great examples on the traditional side and talked about nuclear being robust. I know Emerson's valve and instrument content is about 90% of the world's nuclear reactors. Is there any way you can sensitize the content per new reactor or anything you can add on the aftermarket side that you can capture there?

嘿，大家早安。我想再就權力問題進行一次討論。所以你舉了一些傳統能源方面的絕佳例子，並談到了核能的穩健性。我知道艾默生公司的閥門和儀表佔全球核反應器總量的約 90%。有沒有辦法提高每個新反應器的敏感度，或者在售後市場添加任何可以捕獲的組件？

Yeah. So in a nuclear reactor or a nuclear power plant, I mean, Emerson, typically, if you get the full scope, which is obviously the control system, the instrumentation and the valves, we get $40 million of content for a complete greenfield nuclear reactor with an opportunity to deliver more than $40 million, $40-plus million over a 10-year annuity from an MRO life cycle services perspective.

是的。因此，對於核反應器或核電廠而言，我的意思是，以艾默生為例，通常情況下，如果您獲得完整的範圍，這顯然包括控制系統、儀表和閥門，那麼對於一個完整的新建核反應堆，我們可以獲得價值 4000 萬美元的內容，並且有機會從 MRO 生命週期服務的角度在 1000 萬美元的年收益中帶來超過 400 萬美元。

So that is kind of the scope we operate in nuclear, a lot of valves, instruments and control systems as part of that automation scope.

所以這就是我們在核能領域的業務範圍，自動化範圍涵蓋大量的閥門、儀表和控制系統。

Okay. Great. And then maybe shifting back to Ovation. You saw the strength in orders this year, greenfield modernization. Is this predominantly the power vertical driving this or are you starting to see some sales synergies between Aspen and the legacy Emerson as you mine that installed base?

好的。偉大的。然後或許會重新轉回 Ovation。今年訂單量和新建現代化項目都表現強勁。這主要是電力垂直產業推動的，還是隨著您挖掘現有客戶群，您開始看到 Aspen 與傳統 Emerson 之間存在一些銷售協同效應？

No, certainly it's a good question. Certainly, as you may recall in the GGM business, there are absolute synergies between Ovation, which is inside the walls, the generating walls, and the distribution and transmission networks that utilities own throughout the world.

不，這確實是個好問題。當然，您可能還記得，在 GGM 業務中，Ovation（位於發電廠內）與公用事業公司在全球擁有的配電和輸電網路之間存在著絕對的協同效應。

So we are managing these on a broad account basis, covering both opportunities because very honestly, the distribution and transmission network is in a state of upgrade as well. And if you're going to put the generating capacity onto the grid that we're talking about, we certainly see the investments going into the data systems and the software systems to manage those loads within the grid.

因此，我們正在以廣泛的帳戶為基礎來管理這些項目，涵蓋這兩種機會，因為坦白說，配電和輸電網路也處於升級狀態。如果要將我們所謂的發電容量併入電網，我們當然會看到對數據系統和軟體系統的投資，以管理電網中的這些負載。

Absolutely. And I think from a customer perspective, a lot of synergies of the same customers we deal with on the generation side are investing Monarch to upgrade their transmission and distribution systems. And then from a product perspective, we're developing Ovation, for example, in substation control that extends beyond generation into transmission and distribution and symbiotically works with monarch to deliver value for our customers.

絕對地。而且我認為從客戶的角度來看，我們在發電方面接觸的許多客戶都在投資 Monarch 來升級他們的輸配電系統，這帶來了許多協同效應。從產品角度來看，例如，我們正在開發 Ovation，用於變電站控制，其範圍不僅限於發電，還擴展到輸電和配電，並與 Monarch 協同工作，為我們的客戶創造價值。

Andrew Buscaglia, BNP Paribas.

安德魯·巴斯卡利亞，法國巴黎銀行。

Hey, good morning everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Yes. I wanted to drill down a little bit on the LNG side of the story. Are you able to quantify what portion of that backlog is LNG? And then do your broader comments around Europe and China weakening impact your view of what's likely to move forward in 2026?

是的。我想更深入了解一下液化天然氣方面的情況。您能否量化一下積壓訂單中液化天然氣所佔的比例？那麼，您對歐洲和中國經濟走弱的總體看法是否會影響您對 2026 年可能發展趨勢的看法？

Yeah. Your first question was what portion of our $7.4 billion backlog is LNG?

是的。你的第一個問題是，我們74億美元的積壓訂單中有多少是液化天然氣？

I'm thinking -- yeah, that the -- am I confusing with the $11 billion you've put out there?

我在想──是啊，那──我是不是把這和你們投入的110億美元搞混了？

Okay. Of the $11 billion, I think LNG is what, about yes, $2 billion is LNG since you asked of the $7.4 billion of backlog, about $350 million is LNG. And then your second question was dynamics around Europe and China?

好的。在110億美元中，我認為液化天然氣（LNG）佔了多少？是的，大約20億美元是液化天然氣，因為你問到了74億美元的積壓訂單，大約3.5億美元是液化天然氣。那你的第二個問題是關於歐洲和中國週邊局勢的？

Yes. The kind of that we can just kind of -- yeah --

是的。那種我們可以──嗯--

At this point, obviously, when you talk about China, the core business that we do today, chemical, petrochemical, refining is really what's muted, but we're seeing pockets of opportunity. Certainly, power has remained strong, our export business in China has remained strong, shipbuilding and marine, which is a unique market for us, has remained. And then T&M, which has a decent sized business in China, has seen strong recovery.

顯然，就目前而言，當我們談到中國時，我們今天所從事的核心業務——化工、石化、煉油——確實受到了抑制，但我們看到了一些機會。當然，電力業務依然強勁，我們在中國的出口業務依然強勁，造船和海事業務（對我們來說是一個獨特的市場）也仍然強勁。而T&M在中國擁有相當規模的業務，並且已經實現了強勁復甦。

So there are pockets of op opportunity. I would say we're prudently and conservatively planning for a flat China. I think it's a wild card on China recovery. There is a possibility it could recover into the second half of 206, but we haven't built that into our plan.

所以還是存在一些機會的。我認為我們正在謹慎保守地為中國出現扁平化趨勢做準備。我認為這是中國經濟復甦的一個不確定因素。有可能在 2006 年下半年恢復，但我們還沒有將此納入我們的計劃。

Similarly in Europe, I think that the concerns around sustainability, decarbonization, bulk chemical, automotive, and factory automation remain. We haven't seen a catalyst to indicate that those will turn in Europe. So again, a plan for a flat Europe, but certainly activity around LNG, which is EPC driven in Europe, life sciences, power, and specialty chemical is where we will see the opportunity going forward, and aerospace and defense.

同樣，我認為歐洲也存在著對永續性、脫碳、大宗化學品、汽車和工廠自動化等方面的擔憂。我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明歐洲的情況會發生轉變。所以，儘管歐洲的計畫趨於平坦，但可以肯定的是，液化天然氣（LNG）領域的活動（歐洲的 EPC 驅動型）、生命科學、電力和特種化學品領域，以及航空航太和國防領域，將是未來發展的機會所在。

Got it. Maybe one more on your capital allocation in that pretty robust cash flow, your stocks rather cheap, probably relative to what you'd expect setting into the new year. So maybe can you talk about your balance between repo and expectations for M&A.

知道了。或許可以再談談你的資本配置，鑑於你相當強勁的現金流，你的股票價格相當便宜，可能比你預期在新的一年裡會遇到的情況要便宜。那麼，您能否談談您在回購交易和併購預期之間的平衡？

Yeah. We laid out the $1 billion expectation around repo. As far as M&A, that's opportunistic, and there's nothing right now that's in sight that we would say we're going to allocate to. So that's what 2026 looks like.

是的。我們提出了對回購交易10億美元的預期。至於併購，那是一種機會主義行為，目前還沒有任何我們打算投資的目標。這就是2026年的展望。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our time allowed for questions, and we'll conclude our call today. We thank you for your interest and participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝各位，提問環節到此結束，今天的通話也到此結束。感謝您的關注與參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。