艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

Thank you for standing by.

Welcome to the Emerson fourth quarter fiscal 2011 results conference call.

During today's presentation, all third parties will be in a listen-only mode.

Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions.

This conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, November 1, 2011.

Emerson's commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements, including the company's outlook for the remainder of the year.

Information or factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from those discussed today is available on Emerson's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC.

I would like to turn the conference over to Lynne Maxeiner.

Please go ahead, madam.

Yes, thank you.

I am joined today by David Farr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Emerson; Frank Dellaquila, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Pat Fitzgerald, my replacement as Director of Investor Relations.

I am moving on to my next assignment as Vice President of Planning and Development for Emerson Network Power Systems.

Pat has been with Emerson since 2002 and is coming to the IR role from Emerson's Process Management business segment.

I will turn it over to Pat to review the fourth quarter results.

Pat?

Thank you, Lynne.

Today's call will summarize Emerson's fourth quarter 2011 results.

The conference call slide presentation will accompany my comments, and is available in the Investor Relations section of Emerson's corporate website at emerson.com.

A replay of this conference call and slide presentation will be available on the website after the call for the next three months.

I'll start with the highlights of the quarter, as shown on page two of the conference call slide presentation.

Fourth quarter sales were up 12% to $6.5 billion, with double-digit increases in three segments.

Underlying sales growth was 9%, led by strength in emerging markets.

Operating profit margin expanded 170 basis points from the prior year quarter to 19.1%, which reflected record quarterly profitability.

Net earnings per share of $1.01 was also a record.

Earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.98 increased 31% from the prior year quarter.

Operating cash flow of $1.255 billion was strong, and free cash flow was just over $1 billion.

Our free cash flow to net earnings conversion was 133%.

The balance sheet remains strong, as operating cash flow to total debt was 62%.

The pace of share repurchase increased in Q4 to $444 million.

Emerson's record profitability provides a strong foundation to continue investments in key growth markets and technologies.

Moving to slide three, the P&L.

Again, sales increased 12%, with underlying sales up 9%, currency added two points, and acquisitions added one point.

Operating profit increased 23% to $1.251 billion, or 19.1% of sales, as cost reduction benefits and lower stock compensation expense were partially offset by material cost pressure and growth investments.

Earnings from continuing operations increased 29% to $735 million, which included a $19 million impairment charge for the wind turbine pitch control systems business.

We repurchased 9.4 million shares for $444 million in the quarter, which leads to EPS from continuing operations of $0.98.

Net earnings per share of $1.01 includes a $21 million gain from the heating products business divestiture.

Next slide, Underlying Sales Growth by Geography.

In the fourth quarter, the US was up 3%, total international increased 13%, with Europe up 10%, Asia up 13%, Latin America up 22%, Canada up 15%, and Middle East and Africa up 13%.

Again, total underlying sales were up 9%, currency added two points, and acquisitions added one point, resulting in consolidated sales increasing 12%.

For fiscal year 2011, the US was up 8%, Europe up 11%, Asia up 11%, Latin America and Canada both up 20%, and Middle East and Africa up 16%.

Total underlying sales increased 11% for the year.

Currency and acquisitions added two points each, leading to consolidated sales growth of 15% for fiscal year 2011.

Emerging markets now represents 35% of total sales.

Moving to slide five, the Income Statement Detail.

Gross profit dollars of $2.59 billion was 39.6% of sales, down 30 basis points from the prior-year quarter as material inflation slightly exceeded price increases, and cost reductions and volume leverage more than offset unfavorable product mix.

SG&A expense of 20.5% of sales results in operating profit of $1.251 billion, or 19.1% of sales, increasing 170 basis points from the prior quarter.

Other deductions net reflected lower acquisition costs of $20 million and favorable currency transactions of $16 million, while amortization was higher by $14 million and the previously mentioned impairment impact of $19 million.

Interest expense of $49 million leads to pre-tax earnings of $1.1 billion or 16.7% of sales.

The tax rate for the quarter was 31.6%.

Next slide, Cash Flow and Balance Sheet.

Operating cash flow of $1.255 billion was down 1% from the prior year quarter, with a favorable impact from working capital.

Capital expenditures of $244 million resulted in free cash flow of just over $1 billion.

Emerson's balance sheet remains strong, and working capital efficiency continues to improve with trade working capital as a percent of sales improving 50 basis points to 15.0%.

Moving to slide seven, Business Segment P&L.

Business segment EBIT of $1.168 billion or 17.4% of sales declined 20 basis points as material inflation, intangibles amortization, and growth investments exceeded benefits from cost reductions, price increases, and volume leverage.

Differences in accounting methods was $62 million.

And corporate and other of $88 million reflected lower stock compensation expense of $94 million and lower acquisition costs of $20 million.

A lower debt balance resulted in interest expense of $49 million, leading to $1.1 billion of pre-tax earnings.

Next we'll review the individual Business segments, starting on slide eight with Process Management.

Sales in the quarter increased 18% to more than $2 billion as underlying sales grew 16% and currency added two points.

By region, the US was up 9%, Asia up 27%, Europe up 19%, and Latin America up 13%.

The Measurement Systems and Valves Businesses all realized strong growth.

EBIT dollars of $450 million, or 22.3% of sales, increased 39%, driven by strong volume leverage and cost reduction benefits as well as favorable foreign currency transactions.

This was an outstanding quarter for Process Management, with record sales, profitability and backlog.

Slide nine, Industrial Automation.

Sales in the quarter of $1.385 billion increased 19% as underlying sales grew 15%, currency added five points and acquisitions deducted one point.

By region, the US was up 15%, Asia up 19%, Europe up 11%, Latin America up 24%, and Middle East and Africa up 50%.

The growth was led by the Power Generating Alternators and Fluid Automation Businesses.

EBIT dollars of $205 million or 14.7% of sales increased 7%.

Total price increases more than offset higher material costs, but the impact was dilutive to margin.

Volume leverage and cost reduction benefits were offset by restructuring expense and growth investments.

Full year 2011 segment margin increased 190 basis points to 15.7%.

Moving to slide 10, Network Power.

Sales in the quarter of $1.843 billion increased 10% as underlying sales grew 4%, acquisitions added five points, and currency added one point.

By geography, the US was down 5%, Asia up 6%, Europe up 5%, Middle East and Africa up 27%, and Latin America up 24%.

Network Power Systems Asia and the global UPS and Precision Cooling Business were strong, while Embedded Computing and Power sales were affected by weak markets and aggressive pricing actions.

Sales were down in the US Energy Systems Business.

EBIT dollars of $248 million, or 13.5% of sales, was down 3%, as cost reduction benefits were offset by China labor-related cost, acquisition dilution, price decreases, and unfavorable product mix.

Chloride amortization increased $11 million, and there was incremental investment in the Trellis program of $12 million.

Despite these headwinds, segment margin increased 310 basis points from third quarter to the fourth quarter.

Next to slide 11, Climate Technologies.

Total sales for the quarter were essentially unchanged with underlying sales down 3%, and currency added two points and acquisitions added one point.

By region, US was down 7%, Asia was flat, Europe down 10%, and Latin America up 46%.

The North American residential and commercial markets remain weak on channel inventory reductions and a cautious economic outlook; and the China residential and commercial air conditioning business softened, as well.

World Refrigeration and Transport Businesses were strong in the quarter.

EBIT dollars of $170 million or 17% of sales decreased 12% as volume deleverage, and unfavorable product mix headwinds were partially offset by cost reduction benefits.

Price increases offset material inflation.

The geographic mix of Climate Technologies continues to globalize, with international sales representing 48% of total sales in 2011.

Slide 12, Tools and Storage.

Sales in the quarter of $464 million increased 4% as underlying sales grew 8%, currency added 1%, and divestitures deducted five points.

By geography, US was up 8%, Asia up 16%, Europe up 12%, and Latin America up 9%.

Growth in non-residential construction-related businesses offset US residential market weakness.

EBIT dollars of $95 million, or 20.6% of sales, increased 3% as cost reduction and volume leverage benefits offset unfavorable product mix and higher restructuring costs.

Our repositioning of the Tools and Storage segment continued with the completion of the Heating Products Business divestiture in the quarter.

Moving to slide 13, an Overview of the full-year results.

2011 was an outstanding year for Emerson.

Record sales of $24.2 billion increased 15%.

Emerging markets grew to 35% of sales, while total international sales increased to 59%.

Operating profit increased 21% to a record margin of 17.5% of sales.

Earnings per share from continuing operations increased 25%, and net earnings per share increased 15%.

Fiscal 2011 was our 55th consecutive year of increased dividends, and the Board of Directors voted to increase the December dividend 16%, to $0.40 per share.

Cash generation remains solid with $3.2 billion of operating cash flow, and $2.6 billion of free cash flow.

Return on total capital for the business was 19.6% in 2011.

Finally, on the next slide, our Fiscal 2012 Outlook.

We have strong momentum heading into next fiscal year, with stable order trends, record backlog, accelerated investments in growth markets and technologies, and high emerging markets participation.

Based on current economic conditions, including a recession or no-growth economy in Europe, our initial view of 2012 includes underlying sales and orders up 5% to 7%; reported sales of 4% to 6%; and operating profit margin of approximately 18% and pre-tax margin of approximately 15.5%.

We expect a tax rate of approximately 31%, a pension headwind of approximately $30 million, one minor divestiture, and earnings per share growth of 8% to 12%.

Two items to be aware of for the first quarter, first, there will be a one-time charge of approximately $20 million to eliminate a post-age 65 Medicare Supplement currently available to a limited number of employees.

And the second is the supply chain disruption due to flooding in Thailand that we are managing through.

And with that I'll turn it over to David Farr.

Thank you very much, Pat.

I want to welcome everybody this afternoon.

First, I want to thank Lynne Maxeiner for three outstanding years of excellent Investor Relations.

And I know she had a lot of fun managing the CEO -- i.e., me, the boss.

And she learned a lot and I'm sure she will go on to her next job and do a great job there.

And the most important thing, though, as she finished out her three years is, she brought a World Series back to St.

Louis.

And you have to understand, she was at game six with the rally squirrel, and she brought the win in, and we appreciate that.

So we had the chance to win game seven.

So Lynne, we wish you the best, and have fun with Scott Barbour, up in Network Power.

You've done a great job and he did a great job in front of the Board today.

Next, I want to thank the OCE, the business leaders, presidents, and global leadership for an excellent performance throughout a very challenging and volatile -- and you had to be flexible -- global economy.

There were a lot of dynamics.

As I look at it, there were a lot of curve balls, change ups, many high tight fast balls under the chin.

And the organization did an outstanding job dealing with this very dynamic and changing environment.

And I was pleased to see them rise to the occasion as the OCE and myself put a lot of attention and focus on certain areas as those areas started changing.

We fundamentally delivered the numbers that we outlined in our February St.

Louis investors meeting.

From sales growth to margins to EPS, the dividends, the restructuring, the ROTC, the acquisitions, the divestitures -- the biggest issue we faced with this year that was a very big challenge for us was the price cost.

It was something that we really worked hard all year long.

And in my opinion, we've got it under control as we enter fiscal 2012.

And our current plan, based on what Pat just read to you, assumes that we stay green in our price cost relationship in 2012.

We also are looking at a moderation of that inflation, as some of the commodities have come back and moved back in cost over the last couple of months.

In my opinion 2011 finished strong.

We're moving into fiscal 2012 in a very strong position from a balance sheet standpoint, technology, new products, and emerging markets, which we see the significant increase in incremental investments last year.

We will drive a solid 5% to 7% underlying sales growth.

And I believe another record operating margin around 18%, even with an additional incremental advance growth technology investments that we put forth again here in 2012; based around our new products, our technology; based around global sales organization, technology organization; based around our expanded service organization, some new solutions, technology organizations, and some new business models.

We fundamentally believe in the OCE perspective in the business perspective that we need to take and invest our record profitability into programs to drive growth.

We are looking at what I would look at a moderate growth environment in the mature markets, no different than I said back in February of 2011.

We are looking at still a good emerging market growth in GFI, gross fixed investment, though it will be less in the next couple years than it has been in the last five years.

But it will still be GFI growth in the 5%, 6%, 7% range, which we've been able to get a multiplier effect, as you well know, over the last 10 years.

Our record profitability is driven by hard, difficult investments and restructuring, and a commitment to technology and innovation.

And it's important that we take that profitability and put it back into the business; one, to allow us to grow the business; and, two, it will allow us to grow the profitable business and allow us to continue to expand our incremental profitability over the next couple of years.

As we look at the final closing out of 2011, I want to make a call out to individuals that really had to rise up in some very difficult environment, in particular, Network Power.

As you know, we had a very challenging first half of the year.

They improved in the third quarter and they improved again in the fourth quarter, and they're set up to improve again as we move into fiscal 2012 and the total year basis.

They're taking the tough actions necessary in a marketplace as they integrate the Chloride and Avocent acquisitions.

And I'm pleased to see these guys making the progress they are making, and the support that we're giving them, again next year and incrementally higher restructuring as they go forth and continue to drive that business to be a global franchise for us and for our shareholders for many years to come.

We see a very dynamic global economy in 2012.

We do not see a recession reoccurring in the United States.

I see moderate growth in the United States.

I see non-residential construction still doing well in the United States.

Residential construction will challenge, I think for the first six or 12 months, or first six to eight months of the year.

We may see some pick up in residential as we go forth in the second half of 2012, but we're not banking on that.

It's going to be still be a very challenging market.

In Europe, the economy is very, very, very, very challenging.

Basically, we're seeing no growth from the economy standpoint.

We're seeing basically a recession or basically no growth.

Our Businesses are well positioned both from a technology and a cost structure standpoint.

We had a very strong year in Europe.

And I expect us to have another good growth year next year, though not as good as we had this year.

But we're well-positioned from a technology, infrastructure, and a cost structure to continue to do well in the European marketplace.

In emerging markets, the growth rate, yes, is slowing, but it's still good.

It's still the highest growth rate we see in the world.

And at 35%, we have a strong position, 35% of our sales in emerging markets, we have a strong position.

I still believe the emerging markets will grow 6%, 7%.

The key issue for us is we have made significant investments in incremental investments the last 12 to 18 months.

We're going to do it again in 2012.

And this will allow us to continue to grow and expand and drive towards emerging markets representing 45% of our total sales in the next four or five years.

From the balance sheet and the cash flow, we have what we need to get the job done.

We control our own destiny.

We generate the cash we need to pay out to our shareholders a significant dividend.

We feel good about the Company as we go into 2012.

We are paying out a dividend now in the 40% to 45% of our free cash flow basis.

So this year, we increased it nearly 16% to an annual basis, $1.60, a significant increase.

We believe quite strongly that we'll continue to generate the cash, one, to pay back to our shareholders, and also to pay ourselves to invest for future growth and also do acquisitions.

We have the capability of generating enormous cash flow in this Company, and we can invest it and pay it back to our shareholders.

As I wrap it up, I look at this year, and I told the Board today it was a good year.

It was a challenging year.

It was a record year on many levels.

It was not the easiest year of my 11 years as CEO, but it was a good year.

I appreciate the organization rising to the challenges that we faced all year long, and executing.

And we're going into 2012 with a very strong hand, in my opinion.

And we're ready to grow in a dynamic marketplace.

As I look at next year, the key issue for me is execution and flexibility.

We don't know exactly what's going to come at us from quarter to quarter, but we have the financial strength and the position globally to do well.

And I feel we will do well, based on the initial forecast that we gave you this afternoon.

We will talk further in February when we come to New York and the investor's conference.

We'll talk about what we see at that point in time.

I would imagine the marketplace will look a little bit differently then; we'll have a little bit more clarity.

We'll give you insights into the various Businesses.

But as we leave this year, this Company is in a very strong position from top to bottom.

We're executing and we know the issues we have to deal with, and we're dealing with them.

And I feel good about the organization and where we're going.

So with that I'm going to turn it over to the floor to answer some questions.

Thank you very much.

(Operator Instructions) Chris Glynn from Oppenheimer.

Dave, was wondering if you could comment on the phasing of China stimulus between tightening and back to long term plans, specifically in the low income housing units.

I think they have a $10 million a year target, might have been half that this year.

But that and also more broadly if you could.

From my perspective, China will grow next year.

It's clearly slowing down and they're trying to manage certain parts of the economy.

And my expectation in the housing area, which does drive some of our climate technology businesses, that I think you'll see from quarter to quarter that it could be up and down quite bouncing and quite volatile.

So I feel that as you go into 2012, I believe the Chinese government will stimulate the economy as they move into the next generation leadership.

So I feel reasonably good about the China economy, even though it will be slower growth next year.

But I feel that we will still have a very good growth year in China.

We finished this year around 14% and I would expect us to be in that 12% to 15% again next year as we go into the fiscal year.

And it will bounce around from quarter to quarter but I feel good about what's going on in China overall.

Julian Mitchell from Credit Suisse.

The first question was following up on the outlook by geography because your global organic growth guidance is 5% to 7%.

Europe it doesn't sound like you're expecting much at all.

And I guess your emerging market growth comment of 6% to 7% for '12, that's a GDP growth I guess, so you (inaudible).

It's GFI.

Right, exactly.

So your own revenue growth will exceed that.

I just wanted more clarity on your assumption for the US growth, whether GFI or your own growth in the US.

Because you've given Europe and the emerging markets outlook.

What I give you is European economy growth.

I believe next year in Europe we will grow in the 5% to 7% range in Europe.

Based on our mix of business and the export and backlog that we have in Europe right now, I still believe that our European businesses will grow in the 5% to 7% range.

I gave you a GDP growth in Europe.

I think the economy will be in a recession or no growth environment.

In the US, I think the US growth next year for us will be in the low to medium size single digit.

I think you're going to have a moderate growth of GDP.

We had a very strong US growth this year.

And so I would say that we're going to be growing again at the low end of the 4%, 5%, 6% range for the US next year.

Our emerging market growth, if I see two times -- we've been not doing quite two times GFI.

We've been doing closer to 1.7 times, 1.8 times GFI.

So that's the type of emerging market growth that I see next year, this point in time.

And it will vary.

So from my perspective we're still going to have a pretty good year.

Where the key issue for me is we're going to need to be able to react very quickly to the changing market dynamics.

If things happen to unfold in China and the stimulus does not come forth and we see a slowdown in China, we'll have to react to that.

The same thing in Europe.

If things get really messier than they are today, then we'll have to react to that.

We've gone into this year, we took our inventory down but year-end we're actually finished the inventory level at the same level we had last year.

And we grew sales multi-billion dollars this year.

So we're going into next year being lean from a manufacturing standpoint, an operations standpoint, knowing that we're going to have to be flex, and flex very quickly given what's going to change.

But the growth is out there so I still feel that we can grow this Company in the 5% to 7% underlying growth.

We're just going to have to flex it very quickly this year.

And then just on a divisional basis, Network Power.

As you say, things are looking a lot better there sequentially.

But I guess year-on-year, your earnings in that business still slightly down year-on-year in Q4.

So when you're looking at '12, what do you think really gets the earnings up a lot?

Is there any updates, say, on what your decision was around the India and China telecom businesses?

And also you called out US weakness on some telecom related stuff.

Schneider and Eaton had mentioned something in data centers, as well, looking a little bit weaker.

If you could just update us on the data center demand outlook.

I'm not going to talk about segment information from a sales or profitability standpoint.

We'll do that in February.

From the market standpoint, we have corrections at our customer levels from time to time.

I think the market is slowing down in the data center around the world, just like the overall economy.

Though we're still seeing reasonable orders, as you saw the last month.

Again, I think there's going to be a dynamic here, both from the telecom standpoint and the data center standpoint.

Though I still believe there will be moderate growth and we'll have to see how it unfolds here.

The fourth calendar quarter for us typically is a very volatile quarter because you don't know what companies are going to do from the pull forward or shut down.

And therefore, we won't get a good read from the business segments until we get into that January time period, and that's when I'd feel more comfortable giving an update on that, Julian.

Steven Winoker from Sanford Bernstein.

Just first question around very simply on the reduction in inventory, I think it was around $250 million.

What's the earnings impact of that?

How should we think about that flowing through?

It hurt us.

Just order of magnitude?

It hurt us.

I know it hurt us.

I can't sit here and quantify that.

I do know from a standpoint it will hurt your margin.

You take it out within that type of time period, you're talking about a two- or three-month time period, it does hurt us.

But from my perspective, it's the right thing to do.

So typically, we will flow through on production standpoint on that 20%, 25%, 30% range, and you lose a little bit less than that as you take it out.

But it definitely hurt us from a margin standpoint.

But I thought it was very, very appropriate given the uncertainty we see, both around the world, both in Europe and somewhat in the United States, that you get your balance sheet in order going into that new fiscal year.

And why wait until the new fiscal year starts?

Get it done.

And so we did it.

And was that mostly in Climate Tech or was it broad-based Climate and Industrial?

How should we think about that?

It's Network Power and Process were the big areas.

Climate Technology has seen a slowdown for quite some time.

Our customers, we communicate very strongly with our customers every day, and we adjust our factories every day.

It's a little bit different business model.

So we've done a pretty good job of keeping that in line for the last three or four months.

And I expect that inventory to stay pretty weak both at our level and the channel in Climate.

Network Power and Process and those areas are very, very important.

The last market we really need to get our handles around is Industrial Automation and that usually takes a little longer as we get a feel for where the end customers are going.

And they still don't know themselves.

I was going to say, do you feel like you're still chasing inventory destocking at this point, or feel like you're well-positioned?

I think we got ahead of this curve.

I fundamentally believe you got to stay ahead of this curve.

And we did.

And so I want to thank the operational people.

It does hurt us.

And I wasn't being cute with you, Steve.

It's very hard for me to magnify how much but I do know it hurt us.

And so I think that from my perspective, is the right thing to do.

And we're sitting in a good position right now and we'll selectively bring the inventory back into place as we see that market stabilize.

Which I feel, by the way, is stabilizing in North America.

I feel that things have bottomed out and now we're sitting at a place that I feel comfortable that we will not have an economic downturn in the United States in the next 12 months.

And then I know you don't want to talk about 2012 but just if I talk about this quarter's incremental margins for, say, process.

I think it was 37% sequentially and Network Power again like 44% sequentially.

Those are still very high numbers.

If you think about, was there anything that was unique to the quarter that helped you achieve that?

Or this was just this standard pricing cost, cost reduction actions and leverage?

From process standpoint, we had a very strong mix from a lot of the, what I'd say, MRO and some of the good customer base.

And obviously, some better products that came through that.

I would expect, typically what we see in Process, you know we are a very profitable business, we'll have a good month, a good quarter and then we'll slack off.

It goes back and forth based on the mix.

And I would expect us to have more large project business flowing through in Process in total next year than we did this year based on the backlog.

Relative to Network Power, Network Power really worked hard to clean up some of the issues that we dealt with in the middle of the year.

And so I would expect incrementally the margins will still be good but I don't expect them to be at that level.

They really made a tremendous headway in the last 45 days as we really focused hard on trying to get ahead of that Power curve and I feel good where they are and they're going to have a very strong 2012.

They just need to keep executing as we were talking about.

Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

Just a couple things.

Could you give us some context on where you are on the gross spending?

You spent a little time in your opening remarks on the things that you're focused on.

Do you think it discernibly moved the top line in '11?

Or is it a driver of your view on '12?

And I think you said the actual spending level is going up on '12.

Can you give us anymore clarity on what's going on?

Yes, the impact, it will be in '12 that we spent this year.

We invested, I think in the end what did we ended up around $30-some-odd million --30 million?

$37 million, $35 million.

Say around $35 million last year.

We're going to spend probably next year in that $50 million range.

So a little bit more incremental, $35 million plus $15 million type incremental type.

The way this spending works, we're planting seeds in investment growth.

Last year we did it for 2012 and 2013.

This year we're going to be doing it for 2013 and 2014.

But given the levels of profitability are driving all the actions we've been taking across this Company, we feel quite strong we need to invest for that growth because we're going to have to drive that growth.

So you're going to see the investments both from a technology standpoint, a lot of innovation coming out, a lot of our new service and solution type businesses.

Really the new business models we're working on are going to start paying dividends for us and helping us grow next year.

It's going to help us grow despite what I would say the slowing marketplace out there.

We drive very hard to try to have an incremental improvement over that type of marketplace, which we have the last couple years and I believe that's where this focus point is.

In particular in technology, in particular, not in the emerging markets but also in the United States where there's a lot of investments going on in the oil and gas industry and some of the power industry.

And we are making some investments to support that as that goes forward here.

So it's a very global thing that will help our 2012 and 2013 growth and obviously profitability.

And as you said you don't want to get into the weeds on the segments but if we think about the fix in Network Power, obviously you did show some great progress in this quarter.

In terms of resetting the base there and other restructuring, how far along are you?

Are you 90% through this now or is there a lot of work to do in the first half still?

There's a lot of work to do.

We're going to have around $30 million of restructuring in our Network Power business, maybe a little bit more in 2012.

So the work has started and incrementally you're going to start seeing some effort here relative to some significant restructuring in our European businesses.

And that's going to happen in 2012 and early 2013.

So it's, as I said, it's a multi-year program and we've had some progress in the last year and we're going to have even more progress, in my opinion, in 2012.

But if you look at our restructuring we're talking about $100 million of restructuring next year.

A big chunk of that restructuring is going to be in that Network Power business.

And then just one follow-up to clean up.

Pat, in his script said there was a $60 million transaction gain.

Is that the gain that's referenced in the lease on Process or was that spread throughout the organization?

What was your level of gain was?

The FX transaction?

$16 million.

Yes, that includes Process.

That includes Process.

It's across all the businesses?

Yes, it's everything.

It's all businesses.

All businesses.

Ins and outs into that.

Ins and outs.

It's every business, not just the Process business.

Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

Just a question on the free cash.

You talked about how you guys are taking this inventory out.

I looked at just, maybe I'm not getting all of the detail because you guys don't break out inventories, receivables and the other inventory counts.

But it looked like this quarter's working capital performance was actually somewhat seasonally weak going back to the last several quarters.

Can you just maybe help me jive those numbers if there's something else missing within the working capital accounts that offset that inventory move?

If you look at the trade, working capital as a percent of sales, it dropped from last year, it was 15.5% this year is 15%.

We had a strong growth in receivables.

It's all driven by, that's the one area that you see a huge growth.

The receivables went up about $500 million because of strong sales in the last 45 days.

We historically always have a strong sales so that will pay out.

But in total the trade working capital actually had a pretty good improvement in the fourth quarter.

But the receivable dollars did go up significantly based on our strong sales in the last 45 days.

Okay, so that's the offset because we can't obviously see the inventory number.

We'll see it in the K?

Yes, you'll see it in the K, exactly.

You saw the inventory number, we gave it out in the balance sheet.

We did give it out in the sheet that Pat went through.

On Industrial Automation, have you seen any destocking from Cat?

I know their power shipments slowed pretty dramatically.

Have you seen any change in behavior there?

Cat doesn't stock our inventory.

We build to order there.

So the orders are still pretty good because we're living off of backlog.

Clearly given off the high growth rates that we had last year at this time, Cat's comparisons are going to be tougher and tougher and the growth rates are going to drop.

But we haven't seen -- there's not a dramatic change.

It's a normal cycle Cat goes through.

They build up and then they come back down and that's where we are right now.

The biggest issue we had in Industrial Automation is with our contracts we get the price increase coverage.

And obviously it hurts our margin because we don't make margin on price increase relative to covering steel and copper.

But right now our business to Caterpillar is still very strong and they had a good quarter and we expect them to continue to have a good quarter.

We're building the capacity and the product we need right now.

And one last question.

You're talking about mid single digit growth in the US.

You did 3% in the fourth quarter.

I guess that's just some of the negative comps normalizing in Climate.

Is that an aspect there of the acceleration that you're expecting next year?

I don't expect acceleration.

I expect -- Climate did hurt us in the fourth quarter because last year at this time, they had a very strong quarter.

I expect the Climate Technology, or HVAC business North America, to be very challenging the first half of this year.

And then we're expecting some moderate recovery in the second half.

One, because of easy comparisons and because of all of the destocking going on.

So we're looking more for the HVAC North America, US business to be, I'd say, weak in the first half.

And particularly because our first quarter, I know this quarter is going to be challenging.

And then we go into the second quarter which is the first calendar quarter, and I think we'll improve a little bit as we go on in the year.

But that's where some of that growth is coming from.

But we also see a very still good industrial process and we're also seeing a pretty good growth in our Pat Sly Tools and Storage business as that business has stabilized and we've seen pretty good steady order pace there.

One last quick one.

The wind charge, is that the same business that you guys have highlighted Industrial Automation, this is just a market issue?

I know you guys have talked about the wind related sales there or is that a different business?

No, it's the same business.

We actually have multiple businesses in wind and also solar.

But we had done this acquisition and it was a very strong forecast growth expectations in China.

That marketplace has really taken a nose dive as government backed off in supporting it.

So we felt as we looked at the business, the growth profile of that business is going to be different going forward.

And we felt it was very appropriate at the point in time to say, okay, just deal with it now and get that behind us and take that value out based on what we saw going forward.

But we still had growth in our wind and solar business, and we expect to see growth next year.

It's just not going to be at the same pace because the government support is definitely not there around the world right now.

Rich Kwas from Wells Fargo Securities.

Just a question on M&A, how you're thinking about it now.

I know earlier in the year you were indicating it's going to take a break there and you're going to focus on share repurchases.

Is that still the thought here for fiscal '12?

Yes, from my perspective right now, I have some small, what I'd call, bolt-on deals.

We're looking at a forecast of acquisitions in 2012 most likely in the $300 million to $500 million range.

We're looking at more small bolt-on deals.

We want to digest the Network Power businesses that we've worked on and that's a very strong focus there.

But we're working small bolt-ons.

From a share repurchase standpoint, we will modulate that back at this point in time.

We're going to most likely be in the $500 million, $600 million range next year in share repurchase.

And obviously keep our balance sheet flexible at this point in time if some big opportunity came along.

And we're obviously going to pay back our shareholders this year, a significant increase in dividends to pay back the shareholders for their support of the Company.

And then just a follow-up on that.

Any regional trends on the M&A market out there?

Have you seen anything more attractive, less attractive on a regional basis?

Not really.

I don't think anything has changed.

I think the market right now, my opinion, is in a slow transaction mode right now because there's a lot -- dynamic changes in the economy.

So I think you have to get this economy forecast and steady state a little bit better.

There's a lot of uncertainty in Europe.

There's not a lot going on in Europe right now with the flux and uncertainty going on in Europe.

Nigel Coe from Morgan Stanley.

Great job in taking down inventories this quarter.

You mentioned getting ahead of the curve.

Are you starting to see broader inventory reductions from your customers or maybe suppliers?

I would say the answer is no.

I just felt that with the global economy slowing, I look at what we faced last year, Nigel, and where I thought we would be as we exited this year.

I see a slower growth in 2012 than I did, say, six months ago.

And so therefore, I felt quite strongly that we needed to lead this year with what I'd say a leaner inventory balance sheet in the production standpoint.

And then we'll adjust as we move into this different, I would say, dynamic 2012.

But I still see growth but it's definitely going to be slower than just a few -- six months ago.

At one time, I felt, I think I actually probably said to the outside world, I thought that 2012 was going to be more on the 7%, 8% type of growth range and I don't think that's going to be the case now.

And then on Power, obviously great job on the sequential improvements from Q2 to where we are now.

Obviously some of that is due to fixing some of the issues in China and India.

But how much of that is also due to Chloride accretion?

Because you set some fairly maybe ambitious targets for the accretion from Chloride.

How are we tracking towards those targets?

We reviewed our plans for the Board where we stand relative to two significant acquisitions, both in Chloride and Avocent.

And we are slightly better than our acquisition plan for this year.

Now, it's one year out of the box basically.

So from my perspective, we are on track.

We should see more acceleration as we go into 2012.

And Scott Barbour and the Network Power team know that I'm expecting that.

So I think the real mark for me -- from my perspective, we've made some good headway, we really made a mess of it in the first half of the year.

We've got some good recovery but we've got a long way to go here.

I think the key milestone for me, and the key port of execution for me from my perspective in the OC, is how this team performs over the next 12 months.

Not necessarily quarter by quarter but how they perform over the next 12 months.

Because they have some significant things they have to get done relative to the restructuring and also profitability improvements.

And I think we've got a good start, we've got to keep it going and get it done now.

So I think the next 12 months, from my perspective, we are okay right now, we're contributing to the shareholders.

Now we've got to really start contributing next year.

Josh Pokrzywinski, MKM Partners.

Just want to dig in first on transport refrigeration, called out as strong in the script.

Some of the OEMs seemed to have changed their tone there recently.

Just any update on what the incoming order pace is there and forward trajectory.

I'll be very honest, I don't get the order pace by product line like that.

But I can tell you that we're a global business and our global refrigeration transport business has held up.

It's not equal across all customer base but it's held up.

And I'm expecting again 2012 to have a good growth in our transport and refrigeration business.

And I just don't get a product line order number for every company that's in Emerson.

If I did that, my desk would be very full of documents.

And I wasn't being cute.

I'm just saying I know what's going on.

I can't tell you the specific number.

I know it's still good but there are definitely some people that are weaker than others.

But overall we're a global company in this area here and it's holding up pretty nicely.

And then just shifting over to Network Power.

It seems like the new five-year plan for China entails a good amount of broadband growth and building out that market.

Any pull through from that on the embedded power and computing side?

Or anywhere in Network Power starting to see participation from the new five-year plan?

The answer is yes, we will.

We will see that because both from a telecom basis and also an enterprise, which is the data center, more enterprise basis we'll see both of them.

The big issue that will be is that it will be over multiple years.

We actually did see some pick up.

If you look at the improvement in the fourth quarter, we saw some pretty good improvement in China in the network power base as the orders picked back up.

So I would expect 2012 to have a pretty good growth rate.

We are still doing some pruning in Network Power.

As I told the people as we started this process, I think May and June of last year, it would probably take us 12 to14 months.

So we're still not finished with that.

So some of our growth rate will be modulated but that will help our profitability.

But overall with the China strategy, China growth program, we're going to see pretty good growth in many of our businesses over the next four or five years.

And just to make sure I'm clear, to think of the volume growth helping to accelerate maybe that pricing sticking a little bit better, is the right way to think about it.

Yes, that's the right way to think about it.

Eli Lustgarten from Longbow Securities.

Just one clarification.

The $19 million charge, is that in the EBIT number of the Industrial Automation business?

No, it's not.

It's in corporate.

And can you talk about how you were pointing to on inventories when we go into 2012, are you planning to run them flat for the first half of the year or down?

And the same thing with restructuring, with Europe being as difficult, not only as it looks but could be for a while, are you planning or re-examining your restructuring effort particularly in Europe at this point?

Relative to the inventories, I would expect our inventories to build slightly in the first half of the year but we're going to build them in a little different places.

So in total, you see the total, I would expect that number to come up a little bit.

I would say the whole year we're going to probably run, based on what I see right now, I would expect our inventories to build a little bit but not nearly as much.

And probably move back down towards that $2.1 million to $2.15 million range as we finish the year.

But that's what's going to happen.

But we're going to be very selective where we build inventory.

Relative to the restructuring, the restructuring is going to be very, very, very much - that's three very's -- focused on Europe in 2012.

These are programs, as you know how difficult it is, that we've been working now for a while, and we are teed up ready to start executing those.

And some of those have already started being executed in the first fiscal quarter or the fourth calendar quarter.

So of the $100 million, from my perspective, a majority of that money is going to be spent in Europe.

And that if we see sloppiness occurring, we will allocate more money for restructuring if necessary, if things get tougher out there.

And have you been hedging copper?

With copper coming down as much as most of the materials, shouldn't you have a tail wind for material costs in 2011?

You said you're going to stay green but shouldn't it be more than that assuming hedges roll off?

We hedge our copper.

We're out pretty far in 2012 already.

The average price is obviously higher right now than the current spot price.

But that's what we deal with that, because you have to keep the policy going.

And from my standpoint, the actual net material inflation will slowdown next year.

It will still be, obviously, still a positive number and we're going to have to get price increases.

But right now it's better for us in our key commodities.

But we have hedged close to 80% of our copper for 2012 already.

Terry Darling from Goldman Sachs.

Dave, wonder if you want to clarify some of the perspective on Q1.

First, from an organic basis, given your earlier comment on climate, very difficult comp in Industrial Automation and then some of the Network Power de-cel and some of the order data there.

Should we think about first quarter organic being below this 5% to 7% organic range that you've talked about for the full year, and that it builds as we move throughout the year and comps get a little easier?

First of all, as you know I don't give quarterly numbers and I don't give quarterly guidance.

Secondly, one of the issues that I should comment, and we'll obviously put out now that you've touched the subject, I'm going to say we'll put it out in the 8-K, given what's going on in Thailand right now we are going to be impacted somewhere around $300 million to $400 million in the quarter in sales, as we reallocate our production around for the process world.

We at this point in time it's our best guess.

Just something that's come together in the last couple days when we're working on it.

It's been massive disruption to our supply base and some of our assemblies.

And so we're going to have an issue from a timing standpoint.

For the whole year we'll be okay but we're going to get hit here in this first quarter.

But I don't give forecasts on a quarterly basis.

But you should factor in the fact that we will have some impact from the Thailand shipments because in our process business which will hurt us.

And we'll put that out so everyone knows that too.

That's my best guess right now, I don't know, I could be wrong.

I don't know, but that's our best guess as of this morning.

I asked the guys in case I had to get into it.

Any sense, a Company average margin type of impact as we think about trying to drawn that down to the EPS level?

I would say that from my perspective, our Process business is very profitable, and you're taking out some very profitable business in the Company, so it's going to hurt us.

It's going to be above average margin.

Overweight Process there.

And then is the $20 million healthcare charge in the full year guidance?

Yes, it is.

Yes, it is.

And then Dave just coming back to the climate margin, overall, the comment on mix I think a lot of us are seeing that effect on other HVAC companies as it relates to the move down to 13 SEER, which I think we would all expect for you guys would be lower margin.

Given the first half still tough, you're clearing out some inventories, and the mix down, are you thinking about climate margins as flat to down next year within the scope of your up 50 basis points across the whole Company?

Again I'll say I'm not going to give you individual business segment margins at this point in time.

But I would expect the profitability of the climate margin next year will be -- there will be a struggle this year given the fact the first half of the year will be a challenge, and we're expecting some recovery in the second half.

But we have some new products coming out and we have a lot of investments going on there.

But I would say that would say that will be more and more challenging margin as we look at it.

And I'll give you more detail as we get into February but that clearly is going to be more and more challenging.

They had record levels of profitability in 2010.

The second half of the year really struggled in 2011, as volumes dropped.

And we've continued our investment.

We have a lot of important technology investments underway in Climate, and we're maintaining those for our long-term customer base and our growth profile.

John Inch from Bank of America.

Just want to announce I'm going to take John's question and one other question, and I do have another call I have to take in about five minutes.

So I can take John's call and one other call.

And I apologize for that, but Pat and Lynne will be available.

Industrial Automation, was the sequential and the year-over-year margin pressure, even though you had 15% underlying sales growth, was that a function purely of the raws that you called out?

Or was there a mix issue or something else going on there?

The fundamental issue there is the fact that with a massive amount of material inflation and the price comes in and we run that through the sales line and the GP line, you get no margin on it.

That truly hurt our margin in Industrial Automation.

And that's what hurt it.

We had a great year but that quarter in particular when all of a sudden you get a big price increase like that, it just tears apart that margin.

But overall the margin profitability in Industrial Automation is still running pretty good.

Dave, your five-year plan at the February meeting talked about margins 16% to 18%, with a plus sign on the 18%.

And in a slower growth structural environment, you're calling out 18%.

Does that suggest the range moves higher or that margins have capped themselves and as growth resumes we should expect lower margins for Emerson?

It still drives your EPS but I'm still trying to understand how we should think about the 18% in the context of slower growth but obviously you're putting up the 5% to 7%.

From my perspective, you're going to see in February of this year, you're going to see my margin target go up.

As I reviewed with the Board, we have the capability with what we're doing right now to grow the Company also, and to increase our incremental investments.

And also continue to improve our profitability.

And the case, as we've talked about on conference calls before, and also in conferences, is I'm trying to manage this from the standpoint to know where that margin point is that will often start hurting our incremental growth.

Right now we are not hurting our incremental growth, and we're able to put higher levels of profitability in and also invest.

So I would expect in February to see a higher number at the top end of that cycle now, and maybe 15% to 19% as we continue to mix this Company.

I'm assuming that would mean a higher potential growth margin, right, Dave?

I think you gave a range of 39.6% to 41% and you've done these numbers at the 39.6% level.

I'm assuming that was a raws issue, as well, versus expectations?

Yes, from my perspective, the GP margin target still is in that low 40% range, yes.

Deane Dray from Citi Investment Research.

Just to clarify on Thailand, the supply disruptions, how does that compare to what you went through in Japan?

I think it's going to be more significant.

The issue being there is that we could go out and have distributions and buy inventory.

And relative to the component level, this is a lot more sub assembly work for us being done.

And so I think you're going to find an industry, if you're sourcing, if you have suppliers coming out of Thailand, in particular this part of Thailand, there's going to be a three- or four-month disruption.

And so we have an aggressive plan which we reviewed with the Board today.

That's why I now know approximately what it's going to cost us.

And the key issue for me is, we have a plan underway and we're taking action, but it's going to take us three, four months to get this under control again.

And then just if you could clarify.

If you replay the third quarter conference call, you were decidedly unsettled about talking about 2012.

And then today, you're far more constructive.

And in fact, if I had to guess, the GFI numbers you're picking are towards the upper end of what might have been the expected range.

So what has given you that confidence?

Sounds like there's a lot of items that you can control your own destiny but what changed in the last couple of months that have given you a more constructive outlook?

I'm three months older, and with age you get maturity.

And sometimes, Deane, to be honest, I'm a passionate individual, and sometimes my passion gets in the way.

It's one of the good things that helped me be a CEO but also hurts me from time to time.

Cooler heads think about what's going on in this world, and what we can do and what we can control.

And I believe, as I look at this as it's upfolded in the global basis, I feel the growth opportunities are still there for us.

And I can see the way through, the stones through that, from Emerson's standpoint, stepping through this.

And we're making those investments.

Let's put it this way.

Maturity you learn from.

Even at 56 years old you can be immature and I was immature at 56.

So I'm stronger now.

If you understand that.

And just lastly.

I know it's a welcome to Pat and it's a best wishes for Lynne, but how about congratulations for Dave getting named to the Board of IBM.

Thank you very much.

I don't know if they're ready for me though.

That's what we're wondering.

But best of luck.

Thank you very much, Deane, I look forward to seeing you soon, all the best to you.

Again, I want to thank Lynne, I want to welcome Pat onboard and the whole OC and the business leadership.

And we're looking forward to a fun and exciting and productive 2012.

And again, trying to create value for our shareholders across this Company, around this world.

And hopefully our shareholder base is happy about the strong dividend increase.

As being a large shareholder myself, I'm very happy, let's put it that way.

And with that I'd say goodbye, thanks.

Thank you.

This does conclude the Emerson fourth quarter fiscal 2011 results conference.

Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect.