艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2011 Q1 法說會逐字稿

,>> OperatorGood day, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

Welcome to the Emerson first quarter fiscal 2011 results conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

This conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, February 1 of 2011.

Emerson's commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements including the Company's outlook for the remainder of the year.

Information on factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from those discussed today is available at Emerson's most recent annual report on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC.

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Lynn Maxeiner, Director of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thank you.

I'm joined today by David Farr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Emerson, and Frank Dellaquila, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Today's call will summarize Emerson's first quarter 2011 results.

A conference call slide presentation will accompany my comments and is available in the investor relations section of Emerson's corporate website at Emerson.com.

A replay of this conference call and slide presentation will be available on the website after the call for the next three months.

I will start with the highlights of the quarter as shown on page 2 of the conference call slide presentation.

First quarter sales were up 15% to $5.5 billion with increases in all segments.

Underlying sales were up 11% with strong growth in Industrial Automation and Process Management.

Operating profit margin increased 20 basis points to 15.4%.

Earnings per share from continuing operations $0.63, up 15%, operating cash flow $322 million, and free cash flow of $240 million.

We had a slower start to the year but should recover as the year progresses.

Our balance sheet remains strong and flexible with our operating cash flow to total debt solid at 57%.

Our foundation is strong which creates enormous potential for the long term.

Next slide, the P&L.

Sales in the quarter of $5.535 billion, again up 15%, our underlying sales were up 11%, acquisitions added 5 points and currency subtracted a point.

Operating profit of $852 million or 15.4% of sales, the improvement driven by cost reduction benefits and volume leverage offset by higher material costs and wage costs.

Earnings from continuing ops up 15% to $480 million.

Diluted average shares in the quarter of 758.1 million which gets you to an EPS from continuing ops of $0.63.

Slide 4 underlines sales by geography.

Growth was balanced globally in the quarter with the US up 10% and international up 11%.

By region, Europe was up 10%, Asia up 9%, Latin America up 15%, Canada up 25%, and Middle East/Africa up 11%, getting you to the total underlying sales up 11%.

Currency subtracted 1 point and acquisitions added 5 points, getting you to a consolidated sales in the quarter up 15%.

Slide 5, some income statement detail.

Gross profit dollars of $2.163 billion or 39.1% of sales, up 40 basis points with improvement driven by volume leverage and cost reductions which were partially offset by material inflation as we saw commodity costs continue to increase.

Operating profit dollars of $852 million or 15.4% of sales, other deductions net of $78 million which includes lower restructuring and acquisition deal costs, partially offset by higher amortization from acquisitions.

Interest expense of $61 million gets you to pre-tax earnings of $713 million or 12.9% of sales.

Taxes in the quarter of $222 million for a tax rate of 31.2%.

As a reminder our First Quarter of last year included a tax benefit from the reorganization of international subsidiary.

We expect the full year fiscal '11 tax rate to be approximately 31%.

Next slide, cash flow and balance sheet.

Operating cash flow of $322 million, down 53% versus a strong Q1 of last year.

Operating working capital increased $430 million, the increase used to support strong growth.

Capital spending of $82 million gets you to the free cash flow of $240 million.

We expect capital expenditures of approximately $600 million in fiscal 2011.

Trade working capital balances were at the bottom of the slide.

Our trade working capital as a percent of sales was 17.7% in the quarter and we're driving for full year improvement in the trade working capital ratio to 16% of sales.

Slide 7, the business segment P&L.

Business segment EBIT of $873 million or 15.4% of sales, up 20% or 80 basis points.

We saw benefits from volume leverage and cost reductions which were partially offset by tell and wage inflation and increased amortization from acquisitions.

Difference in accounting methods of $53 million, corporate and other of $152 million.

We had higher stock option expense of $18 million in the first quarter fiscal '11 from our triennial stock award and the recording of that expense up front in the quarter.

Interest of $61 million gets you to a pre-tax earnings of $713 million.

Next we'll go through the business segments starting with Process Management.

Sales in the quarter of $1.542 billion, up 12%.

Underlying sales were up 13% and currency subtracted 1 point.

By region, the US was up 18%, Asia was up 11%, and Europe was down 1%, Latin America up 21%.

We see broad strength across businesses and processes, global capital goods and markets continue to recover.

EBIT dollars of $290 million or 18.8% of sales driven by volume leverage and cost reduction benefits.

Large project wins continued through the quarter setting up good growth for this next cycle and we believe end markets are in their early stages of a strong global recovery.

Next slide, Industrial Automation.

Sales in the quarter of $1.21 billion, up 23%.

Underlying sales increased 24%, currency subtracted two points, and acquisitions added a point.

By geography, the US, Europe, and Asia were all up 24%.

We saw broad growth across the portfolio and very strong growth in the power generating alternator and electrical drives businesses.

EBIT dollars of $185 million or 15.3% of sales, an increase of 70% driven by volume leverage, cost reduction benefits, and lower restructuring.

We saw substantial material inflation that was only partially offset by pricing increases.

The delayed customer capital spending over the last two years should result in a catch-up phase of spending in the next two years.

Next slide, Network Power.

Sales in the quarter of $1.669 billion, up 21%, underlying sales were up 6%, and the Chloride and Avocent acquisitions added 15 points.

By geography, the US was up 9%, Asia was up 3%, and Europe was up 6%.

We saw strong growth in the North American uninterruptible power supply and precision cooling businesses and the embedded power business.

The systems business in Asia declined versus tough prior year comparisons that included strong stimulus programs in China.

EBIT dollars of $182 million or 10.9% of sales.

There was increased Chloride and Avocent amortization of $25 million and other Chloride acquisition costs of $15 million in the quarter.

EBIT was also impacted by unfavorable price, material inflation, and expediting costs.

We expect EBIT margins to strengthen in the second half of fiscal 2011 as the integration of Chloride and Avocent acquisitions take hold.

Next slide, Climate Technologies.

Sales in the quarter of $810 million, up 3%.

Underlying sales were up 4% and currency subtracted 1 point.

By region, the US was down 3%, Europe was up 14%, and Asia was up 12%.

Strong growth in the refrigeration business was partially offset by decline in US residential.

EBIT dollars of $123 million or 15.2% of sales impacted by favorable mix from higher technology products and benefits from cost reductions.

Material inflation was only slightly offset by price.

Last year, China stimulus programs and the R-410A refrigerant conversion in the US benefited sales making comparisons tougher.

Next slide, Tools and Storage.

Sales in the quarter of $446 million, up 3% with underlying sales also up 3%.

By region, the US was up 2%, Europe up 8%, and Asia up 14%.

Strong growth in the professional tools business was partially offset by weakness in residential storage.

EBIT dollars of $93 million or 20.8% of sales driven by benefits from cost containment actions, volume leverage, and pricing actions which were partially offset by material inflation.

We expect a weak recovery in consumer discretionary spending.

Next slide is the summary of Emerson's historical financial performance over the last few years.

You can see in 2010, it was really the beginning of the recovery period for Emerson.

Our EPS from continuing ops rebounded in 2010 and increased 15% from the prior year.

Today, we provided EPS guidance for 2011 of $3.15 to $3.30 which is a 21% to 27% growth over an already solid 15% growth last year.

Next slide, the Summary and Outlook.

We had a good start to the year, underlying sales growth is strong at 11%.

Capital goods end markets are favorable and we're at the early stages of a strong recovery.

Order trends support our growth objectives.

We do expect the order trends will continue to moderate from the peak as comparisons get tougher.

For fiscal 2011, we expect earnings per share of $3.15 to $3.30, underlying sales up 10% to 13%, net sales up 14% to 17%, operating profit margins 17.4% to 17.7%, operating cash flow in the range of $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion, restructuring costs between $80 million to $100 million, and capital expenditures approximately $600 million.

We will review our 2011 expectations and strategic plans at Emerson's Annual Investor Conference on February 3 and 4 in St.

Louis which is Thursday and Friday this week, and we look forward to seeing you all in St.

Louis.

So with that, I'll turn it over to David Farr.

Thank you very much, Lynne.

I want to welcome everybody today and visiting us in St.

Louis by phone.

We had a very exciting Board meeting today and we did have a shareholders meeting where a couple shareholders did show up despite the weather, and everything went as planned.

We are looking forward to meeting with the sell-side and buy-side analysts along with our investors this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

All of the top executives will be here, the business leaders and we are bringing in 20 or more of our top global operating executives to participate in the conference so everyone has access to the next leadership and what's going on across the Company.

I also want to thank all of the global operating leaders for delivering a strong quarter at Q1 here on top of a 2010 recovery.

As I look at it and talk to our shareholders today, our foundation is extremely strong and we are planning a very strong 2011.

I would call it break out year of underlying sales in the 10% to 13% range, operating profit record levels 17.5% or so, record cash flow, record EPS in the $3.15 to $3.30 range which is up 25% or so relative to last year's $2.60 continuing ops number.

So a very good year.

And I believe the wind is to our back and this is just the beginning of a good recovery in the markets that we serve based on the return to investment profile around the world.

In addition, our trade working capital and operating cash flow will be at record levels this year.

We will invest that money both back to the shareholders and also to strengthen the balance sheet and do a couple acquisitions.

Our global infrastructure investments are increasing.

We're investing for growth around the world.

We have been continuing to push forward on what we call the Accelerate 2012 programs to making those investments which will be discussed later this week when you're in St.

Louis.

But fundamentally, the foundation of the Company right now is extremely strong and we're moving into a very I'd call profitable growth phase for the Company, as we have done in the past.

The quarter was within what I thought would happen from the standpoint of orders and sales, in line with my expectations.

There were three misses as I saw the quarter based on if you ask me, three or four months ago where I thought the quarter would do.

Number one, the acceleration of material inflation.

We had planned on a negative quarter relative to net material inflation and our price cost situation.

It actually turned out to be twice the level we thought, and round numbers, the actual number was a $40 million hit to us.

We thought it would be only a $20 million hit.

Inflation is not going away.

Inflation around the world is a big issue.

It's something I've been talking about and we will talk about this week.

Material is three times our level, approximately three times the cost of our labor if you look at material cost.

Price increases have been put in place under way.

We'll have to significantly increase those price increases around the world because this is not a momentary blip.

In my opinion, I think net material inflation could run at higher levels for the next two or three years.

That's a plus and a minus in many regards but in reality this is an issue we are going to have to deal with.

It's not going away.

Second issue I was a little bit disappointed with was trade working capital performance but not on all businesses.

There were two specific businesses, our Industrial Automation business and our Network Power business in the power and computing area.

Both of these had disappointing first quarter trade working capital performances as I looked at them.

Both of them are fixing the issue and they will fix it.

The rest of the Company actually had better performance and performed extremely well, so I have a lot of confidence that we will get these back under control.

The third miss was mine.

I apologize for it.

I remember talking to you last time about the cost of stock would be a tail wind for us this year.

I was wrong.

I forgot about the fact that we now accelerate our stock option awards and we make the awards every three years and we actually put 40% of the cost of a three year option in the first quarter for various reasons, and our options actually stay outstanding for seven years.

My mistake, I take that my fault.

It cost us around $18 million in the quarter.

I did not anticipate that but for the rest of the year our stock programs will be what I'd call positive to us because of the program.

But we've got 40% of our stock option program now written off in the first quarter.

The one thing I want to keep repeating because I think people are missing is in September, we made a special phone call to talk about our acquisitions and divestitures and we told people very specifically that we would have, in the first part of 2011, one-time Chloride costs of $0.03 or $0.04 and operational costs of Chloride this year as we integrate of $0.03.

That is happening.

It hasn't changed.

They're on track.

They're doing a great job.

There's nothing different.

That's still happening.

The other thing we reminded people is we did divest our motor Company last year and that will hurt us a nickel this year.

So those two things alone, I think people from time to time forget about them.

I just want to remind you all those are not in our numbers this year from the standpoint of helping or hurting us, as that's what's happening.

As I said, I think we have a great start to the year.

We are well positioned.

We'll have a lot of conversation this Thursday and Friday relative to where we see things unfolding in the next couple years and also longer term.

We have some great presentations and discussions.

We also have a trade show this year updating people relative to our investments and technology investments in the Process, Industrial Automation, Network Power and Climate Technology, and a very good way to inform our investors on where we're going and why we're so excited about our growth prospects as we look at it going forward.

Fundamentally, the Company is extremely in solid position right now.

The operating people are executing.

We will work through the price cost situation this year.

It will be a challenge all year long.

We are not going to be alone in this issue.

It will happen.

We will get the necessary price actions and we'll get the necessary cost reduction actions, but we'll be fighting this all year long and we'll be fighting it again next year in my opinion.

So as we sit today, we're looking forward to a record setting year in 2011.

We're looking forward to having the opportunity to talk to people this week and have everyone have a chance to meet with the young management team and the management team that's driving this Company forward as we go forward here in the next couple years.

With that, I want to thank everybody for joining us again today and we'll open the lines up so we can answer some questions.

But relative to strategies discussion we'll be doing that when we go live here on Thursday and Friday of this week.

Thank you very much.

The phone line's open.

Can we go ahead and open up for questions?

(Operator Instructions)

Bob Cornell, Barclays Capital.

Network Power, a lot of moving parts there.

I think despite your comments, most of us got the numbers plugged in right.

I can disagree.

But maybe you could help us understand what's really going on with how the Chloride operation integration is going and then talk about some of the unfavorable price material.

Then, just help us understand how we're going to sequence from this quarter into the second half.

You talked about where margins are going and then embedded in guidance, what are the margins at Network Power going to be?

You'll see that this week, Bob, if you choose to come.

We'll have a long conversation on Network Power and we'll give you a forecast.

Relative to the price cost situation, what we're seeing in Network Power, given the fact that there's been material shortages in the electronic area.

We've had to basically expedite, we've had to pay premiums, and we've had a squeeze that sometimes we're not able to deliver and actually ship products.

So, we miss obviously some sales in that area that caused some inefficiency.

So that will work off for the next three or four months.

Relative to the integration again we'll talk about that.

We'll have Ed Feeney talk about that, how things are going.

He's better to discuss that, but things are proceeding well.

As we look at the first half of this year and the second half of this year relative to the Network Power I would expect us to have another struggling quarter this quarter.

As we go through the full integration we still have some costs that we still have to run through the second quarter and then you'll start seeing margin improvement as we go forward.

We're going to give you a range of EBIT margin on Thursday.

I think that's the best time to see it so you can see how this goes.

We're going to see another struggling quarter to Network Power in the second quarter and then you're going to start seeing them improve sequentially as we go into the second half this year and as we move into next year.

Clearly if we get our synergies going, then our profitability should be much better, but that's how we see it right now.

Can I have a follow-up question?

One.

Yes, sure.

For Frank, for modeling purposes, I think we got the notion that the amortization of intangibles in the first quarter includes a little bit of Avocent and Chloride, but frankly, I had a higher number than $67 million in there.

So could you help us understand where the [OID] number is going on a quarterly basis and specifically where the amortization of intangibles, how that's going to track?

This quarter, we have the full complement from Chloride and we have three months versus one month on Avocent, but I think it's going to track pretty much as you saw this.

Excuse my voice by the way.

It's going to be around $70 million?

I think for a while we were thinking that the swing would be $100 million for a year and there would be a bit of a higher number in the first quarter relative to the balance of the year.

That's not the case, it will be $70 million?

You've got to pretty much straight line that number there, as long as they come in.

I think the restructuring number will be lower, but the amortization number is going to be around $70 million a quarter.

Now if we do a couple more small acquisitions it could go up a little bit, but it's going to be around that level so $70 million, $75 million a quarter.

I forgot to ask too, I get the second quarter struggles in Network Power but from time to time you'll give us guidance on where Network Power margins will go.

What is the second half margin embedded in the guidance for Network Power?

You'll see it when we talk about it Thursday.

I'm not going to play out that call.

We'll see it, we'll give you a range for the whole year and you'll see where it comes in, in the second half of the year once you see those numbers.

Okay, thanks.

I'd rather wait until then.

Okay.

Thank you, Bob.

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

Except for the noise in Network Power on the integration and the like, the incrementals in the businesses actually were very strong, notwithstanding the price cost dynamic.

I'm wondering if you could just give us a little sense, Dave, on the durability of that in isolation?

In other words, obviously the restructuring is coming off a little bit, but are we just kind of in a sweet spot on utilization ramping up and how should we think about that playing out now that we're getting more into a tempo of better revenues kind of off the bottom?

Yes, we will have pretty good flow through profitability this year in total.

For us to get up into that mid-17 range, we'll have very good flow through profitability.

The one concern I do have is on the price cost and the timing.

We're going to have to go out and increase our pricing actions here early on this year.

We've already gone out once and we'll have to go back out again.

So I think that on the incremental profitability the only one issue I'd be worried about would be the impact of higher net material inflation and we're not able to totally get it offset this year by the time we finish it in the price cost.

I think we're in a sweet spot relative to profitability and relative to our underlying growth and the mix of business as you can see it's swinging our way relative to profitability.

And is there any particular segment of your business where you're worried about demand destruction as you go out with price?

The resi compressors come to mind to me in that question but is that a relevant thought and is there any place where you're seeing difficult pushback?

I think it's always, relative to anything to do with the US consumer market, some pushback, but I don't think that we have a situation where we're going to lose dramatic amounts of volume.

Typically on our customer base, we will have to work over a quarter or two to work through this issue, but they are facing the same issue themselves, because we're not the only material component on the residential side.

In fact, if you look at an air conditioning and heating system there's a lot of metal in that.

So I don't -- we might see a little bit negative impact, but on the positive side, I also had a positive impact up because you have a little bit higher price, you get a little bit higher growth.

You also get -- we have other businesses that serve that industry too.

So it's a two-edged sword in certain respects.

The Process guys like this type of commodity inflation to be honest.

Just a final one for me.

Can you give us -- you mentioned big project wins.

Can you give us the sense of where the tempo is really picking up in the business by vertical market or geography, some sense of how broad it is?

Yes, we'll have a lot more on that Thursday, Friday, but I would say on the overall market pace, I just came back from the Middle East and India, that business pace is very good.

Asia, China projects is pretty good.

And the Latin America projects are still pretty good.

So the project base is picking up around the world.

It's pretty well set and it's moving that way forward.

We have the price of commodities, the price of oil, are trending upwards so that also gives you a little bit of stability relative to the cash to invest.

So the project business looks pretty good right now around the world.

Great, thanks a lot.

See you.

Hope to see you on Thursday.

You will.

If I can get there.

Start walking.

Scott Davis, Morgan Stanley.

Sure, good morning guys, or afternoon, gosh.

How time flies.

Good afternoon, Scott.

I think we all have to start walking because it's looking a little challenging out there weather wise, but hopefully we get to see you.

It'll clear up.

Dave, one of the things that's occurred in the last couple months.

You closed Chloride and GE announced the deal with Lineage.

What does that transaction mean for you guys?

Is it good because it further consolidates?

Is it bad because you have a more deep pocketed competitor?

Can you talk to that a bit?

I guess one competitor can borrow with the Fed and one cannot.

Let me see.

Lucent Power has nothing to do with Chloride.

Right.

Okay?

Lucent Power is more on the embedded computing side.

It's competing against people like AVTECH, myself, Emerson, Delta, guys like that.

It's not anything to do with precision cooling or precision UPS that Schneider, Emerson, and Eaton compete in.

So I know the business well.

We've looked at it over the years.

At one time that business between Tyco, PECO, and Cherokee was over $2 billion in volume.

We passed a couple of times on it.

It's a friendly competitive environment.

I'm looking forward to competition.

Okay.

This is one of the first quarters, Dave, and I know you commented a bit on Asia, but I think it's one of the few quarters where we've seen greater deceleration in your Asian businesses than you've seen in a while and I understand the tough comps and such, but can you give us a read?

You've got pretty good local guys over there.

Is there impact from tightening?

Are there timing issues on contracts, projects?

Is there anything that explains some of that deceleration other than just tough comps?

China is clearly slowing the economy down and we're already seeing ramifications of that, and I still believe they will be successful.

The growth rate will still be a reasonable growth rate within China.

From my perspective, Southeast Asia has had a little bit of disruption relative to the whole inflation that's running across most of the emerging markets both in Southeast Asia and also in India.

So, I think there's the market has slowed down a little bit.

Certain markets will pick back up, I think India.

The question in my opinion, will Southeast Asia and China pick back up.

I think those markets will be slowed down and you're seeing a shifting from the shorter cycle stuff to the longer cycle stuff.

In Asia for us, we'll have a very good year, but it will still be a more challenging year for us as we mix and match a little bit differently than we were last year.

So we're in a transition period right now between the various businesses and where we go with it.

The China slowdown is definitely having an impact already I think in the business.

Makes sense.

Okay, thanks.

We'll see you Thursday.

See you Thursday, thanks.

Steven Winoker, Sanford Bernstein.

Can you get into a little more detail on the material inflation side, that extra incremental $20 million and across the businesses where you're seeing it?

You're seeing it primarily in steel, copper, I would say any of our oil based type commodities.

You're fundamentally seeing -- anything metal basically you're seeing inflation coming in right now, and I see no indication that, that's going to slowdown and it's sort of building.

From the standpoint of -- if you look at a scenario that we're going to grow underlying growth rate of 10% to 13% this year and I still think 2012 will also be a pretty good year, you're going to see a strong demand in the raw materials.

Then you also have issues around the world relative to some of the material shortages, be it Australia, be it certain parts of Latin America, and even Africa.

So you're seeing parts of the world that are having troubles delivering some of the raw materials.

So I think you're going to have this issue for quite some time.

We've had accommodating Fed here in the US and accommodating Feds in Europe that have been pumping money and now all of a sudden, you're going to see growth take off and you're going to see this inflation across most of the hard commodities.

Dave, which business unit would you say is most vulnerable with the least pricing power to be able to deal with that, or design initiatives in terms of substitutions and things like that?

The toughest pricing materials area is typically Network Power and, I think someone asked earlier, would definitely be Climate Technology from a timing standpoint.

Those two would typically have the most challenging areas.

One of the other problems we will clearly have is in the US marketplace, what I would call the discretionary consumer has not come back in yet.

And that will put a lot of pressures relative to the pricing action there too because that marketplace still has not recovered much, and I don't expect much of that recovery this year.

It's going to be an interesting year as we go back out and we work this issue and I think we're have to pick up our pace in cost reductions.

We're going to have to get some leverage on the higher volume as it comes forward, and it would be one of these years we're earning our money again.

Let's put it that way.

And with the very good incremental that you showed this quarter excluding price cost as Jeff pointed out, are you stepping up the or did you step up in the quarter the R&D and other sales investments that you'd been talking about last year?

Yes, we did.

And so it wasn't, it's not-- it was $40 million additional on top of what we normally do.

You can't divide that by four, but it's not totally front end loaded; it will start building as the year goes on, but we are spending money now, we'll continue to spend money.

And that's all about driving faster growth for us as we leave 2011 going into 2012 as I think -- as we need to have that extra shift at that point in time.

So we're spending the money, and you're going to see that we have the money, we can spend it.

The question is can we get the operational issues relative to price cost back in line and I think that's the key issue for all of us.

Great, see you Thursday.

Thanks.

Thank you very much, appreciate it.

Julian Mitchell, Credit Suisse.

My first question was just about the $40 million and how you see that playing out over the balance of the year.

Do you see that as being a run rate now or is it a gross number and as your prices go up, you can start to eat into that from the price increases that you're pushing through?

No, the $40 million is -- that's a cost that we built into our P&L for the year and we will spend that money.

That's investments in people and technology and that we're not at the run rate of $40 million yet.

We will not be there probably until late second quarter, early third quarter.

And most likely that number will have to continue -- we'll continue that going into 2012 and maybe even add more money to it.

But that is an investment that we are making right now and based on what I see at this point in time we're moving forward.

This is about investing in additional growth and technologies for the future of this Company and we can afford it based on the investments that we've made and restructuring we made over the last couple years, so I feel very good about it.

Price cost situation I'm not going to go out say, okay stop spending that money.

We'll deal with price costs other ways.

But this is an investment in the long term of the Company for faster growth and higher technology levels.

Thanks, and then finally just in terms of the price increases that you want to push through.

Are you seeing generally your competitors are being pretty disciplined on that as well?

So you're seeing most of your peers globally pushing out prices at the same time?

I think that every person that we compete against in this space are having the same material issues that we're having.

So I think you're going to see most of the competitors working this issue.

It's a fairly disciplined industry that we participate in, so I would expect everyone being rational will work this issue.

We're going out and I know our competitors are going out too.

So it's something that we're all facing.

It's just not just a US situation here.

Sure.

Thanks.

Thanks, Julian.

Deane Dray, Citi Investment Research.

I would be very interested in hearing more color on the Industrial Automation point, on the reference about the catch-up in customer CapEx spending.

You said it's expected over the next two years, interested in hearing why that time frame is-- I trust you'd see more in the first year, but just if you could expand on that thought?

We'll talk about this Thursday and Friday this week.

The cycle is-- we've cut back so drastically across the world as the liquidity crisis hit us in late 2008 and 2009 so we went down extraordinarily hard.

If you look at most of us in this world today as we've gone through sort of this restructuring, repositioning around the world, we have taken our capacity to a point in my opinion that's pretty tight.

You have a situation where the material inflation is coming at you.

You have a situation where we're moving around the world, you're going to need capital and so for productivity and also both labor and material.

So I think you're going to see a window here.

I personally believe for potentially three years, where you're basically looking at a pretty good rate of capital spending across this industry as we reinvest for growth and reinvest in productivity.

This is not atypical and I think the first year might be a bigger percent increase, but in 2012 you have a dollar increase going back up.

The other issue is we all, companies, have very strong balance sheets and we are now looking for where we can invest for growth and for productivity.

So I think you're going to see us -- we're all turning to that.

We went through a restructuring mode for almost two years.

My restructuring mode is now tailing off and now when that happens, what we do is we turn to internal capital spending and that's why our capital's going to go from-- probably up $100 million this year.

Got it.

Then, the comment on, we've gone through the higher material costs, but I'd be interested in hearing more about the higher wage costs.

It came up a couple different times.

Is this a snapback in all of the different compensation, 401(k) etc.

or are you seeing new inflation?

No, we're not having any wage -- our wages are in check.

There's not an issue.

We didn't do any special one-offs.

We didn't cancel our 401(k).

We did not cut peoples' salary.

We did not do all those things.

What we did is last year we had our annual, three year program relative of what we call our long-term stock program, the performance shares which we paid for as an overlap year.

Then, in October we issued our -- once every three years we issue stock options and we issued those out.

And with the new rules coming out of Enron, we basically have to now write those off a lot faster and we actually wrote off 40% in the first quarter of the total three year stock option award.

That's all it is, and now we'll revert back and you'll see our compensation package will actually start to be a tailwind for us, so we don't have any wage inflation at all.

Good, and then just last one for me if I could.

Hopefully you could comment on the Control magazine Reader Choice Awards.

You've commented on this in the past and I know it's an industry popularity poll, but Emerson did downtick on a number of categories.

Maybe just you want defer to the Analyst Day, but is this a sign of any competitive shifts?

Is it a change in categories?

What kind of color could you give around it?

I haven't seen it yet.

Yes.

Dean, we're still, even though some of the categories move around a bit, I think the order of magnitude shift is still at 3X times, our first place versus anyone else.

So I think in any given year that they'll move around a little bit, but I think if you look order of magnitude, we're still much further ahead in that space.

But we'll talk, I'll get the numbers.

I haven't seen it yet, Dean.

Just to clarify and Lynne, you're absolutely right, you're 3X ahead of the next competition, but just at the margin I was wondering if there was anything interesting.

Okay, we'll take a look at it.

I'll look at the pieces where it shifted and I'll give you my two cents worth.

I'm sure we'll get more than that.

I'll give you a nickel then.

I'll give you a nickel.

Thanks.

See you later.

Shannon O' Callahan, Nomura Securities.

So just on the one time charges and the operational $0.03 for Chloride, can you give us how you see the quarters flowing out at this point?

How much of that in total hit in Q1 and what's Q2 and forward look like?

I don't give quarterly forecasts and I haven't for almost nine years.

I worry about the long-term.

Well how much hit in 1Q?

I think -- hi, Shannon, this is Lynne.

I think we had in the press release today, we showed you what the increase in amortization was, which was the $25 million and then we had some Chloride one-times of $15 million in the quarter.

Right.

So -- and there wasn't any in corporate, right?

There's a little bit in corporate.

Okay.

And of the $25 million, how much was Chloride versus after Avocent?

I think the point is we're on target for the September 9 call in terms of one-time charge is negative $0.03 to $0.04 and operationally Chloride's negative $0.03.

So we can parse out the quarters but I think directionally you have a lot of information there.

There wasn't any one time charge for Avocent in the first quarter.

Okay.

It's the amortization --

There's a delta amortization for Avocent but no one-time.

I try to look at the bigger picture typically.

I'm just trying to get a sense of what the underlying margins were.

There's obviously a lot of noise and so how is this noise going to go away as we walk through the year.

ROI margins will go up as we walk through the year.

Okay.

How about on the top line perspective?

You talked about Network Power being up double digits for the year.

Obviously you had the Asian stimulus comp and things in Q1.

What other kind of top line color is there, in terms of how the year flows out and the timing of projects and things like that, that might lead to acceleration for Network Power?

Network Power as I've been saying for some time now, I expect the Network Power reliable power side where Chloride and all those things -- I think you're going to see an improvement as the year goes on relative to the orders and sales.

Then you'll see the embedded power and computing business which has gone through the early phase of the ramp up, that will slow down.

So you're going to see, as we go into the second half of this year, the reliable power business will pick up pace and the orders will be better, but I don't think there's anything extraordinary.

That's the normal shift that we would see.

The Geldmacher business which is embedded power and computing comes out first, it started coming out last year, that slows down, and then the other Network Power business comes in once NPD runs.

So that's typically how it runs.

I think the cycle right now is pretty normal.

The wild card will be what the US consumer does a little bit in the residential side.

I think Europe has continued to do well.

I expect Asia to do reasonably well, even with the slowdown, and I expect the US to be pretty good this year.

And I think our fastest growing market space this year will be Latin America.

Okay, great.

Thanks a lot.

You're welcome.

Rich Kwas, Wells Fargo Securities.

A question, Dave, on investment R&D, you talked about material price inflation over the next couple years.

Are you diverting some dollars toward redesigning and reengineering of product to lower material footprint and material cost in the future?

How should we think about that?

I don't think we're -- I mean we are definitely the last 12 months we've increased our spending in that area.

I don't think I would say diverting a lot of dollars on the margin, but clearly, in certain areas we're definitely going through a major redesign effort on trying to figure out how to get certain materials out and reduce those materials.

It's an ongoing process, that's what we do.

Given the fact that now, we're seeing certain commodities like copper running at much higher levels, we're going to have to figure out how to use less copper.

So, I would say that you won't be able to see that from a material standpoint.

It won't really impact us from the standpoint of growth opportunities, things like that, but it definitely is picked up per se relative to the cost reduction priorities list.

It's very true.

Okay, and then on non-resi within Climate, a couple quarters ago you were more positive on that.

We've had some leading indicators turning the right direction here.

How are you feeling about that business right now as you move deeper into 2011 and into 2012?

I feel very good about it around the world.

I think from our non-res type of business in both in the Climate Technology area and-- I feel very good about that and I also feel very good about a couple other places.

We are seeing that improvement coming.

It will not be a rocket shot but definitely stabilize and come back up, and I think will be an important growth area for the next 12 to18 months for us.

Do you think that could be a source of upside even later this year?

Yes.

Later in the calendar year 2011, yes.

Okay, thanks.

Steve Tusa, JP Morgan.

So I'm just curious when you look at the Network Power orders have decelerated here and I guess it's shown in the growth rate.

Your guidance for the year is I guess 10% to 14% underlying, but you just (Inaudible).

What would need to happen to get you to the high end of that range given that the CapEx businesses comps get obviously tougher the more we mature here the back half of the year and doesn't sound like Network Power picking up.

So, is it Climate that gets a lot better?

I'm just trying to figure out how we kind of move through the year given that you just did 11% and you're guiding to kind of 14% at the high end which would imply that you're exiting at a lot stronger of a rate.

I think the two key issues, relative to Network Power we've built up a pretty big backlog from the early cycle business and we've had that build up because of material issues, and we should start working that off.

That will help our growth rates as we get into the second and third quarter.

That's going to be a positive.

Relative to the Industrial Automation and Process businesses, those business will start picking up and have better growth rates as we go through the second half of this year.

Even though they're good right now, they should be pretty good in the second half of this year.

Relative to the--

Yes, I think the only caveat is just comparison keep in mind, Steve, so for like an IA, they have pretty easy comparisons at the front end of this year compared to a year ago.

Right, which is kind of what I'm -- but the order rates are still very strong.

So I guess that's what you're saying is that even though the comps get tougher, these are lumpy businesses and the order rates strengthening drives acceleration in the CapEx business is what you're saying.

Yes.

As I see it, I think you're going to see a pretty good bump in the middle of the year for us, the second, third quarter for growth rates, then it will probably slow down a little bit and then it will come back, cycle around.

But we're going into that mode right now where you could have a quarter strong and a weaker quarter strong, up and down like a little saw tooth here.

I think the middle part of this year is going to be pretty good from a growth rate comparison standpoint.

And then just one last question on price cost in general.

Everybody gets woofed up about price cost and HVAC which is kind of interesting to me, because last cycle, you guys actually got a pretty decent amount of price in Climate.

This is a business that goes through distribution and the ultimate buyer really has no frame of reference as to what they paid 15 years ago for a unit.

So it seems like your pricing power there is actually not too bad.

When I look back at Network Power in 2005 and 2006, you had negative 3% and negative 2% pricing, that's per your 10-K.

So is there something more structural about Network Power and the competition and pricing pressure there, and I guess this quarter just kind of reminds us of that or maybe of you could just talk about how competitive that business is going to be over the long term?

I think if you look at where a lot of the growth is coming from in the Network Power business--.

By the way I agree with your comment on climate.

I think the issue there with climate, with all our customers, is you sit down, you work through them, and work that channel over time.

It's something you do as long as you don't go crazy, you just work it very deliberately, you can get that price through as you said.

On the Network Power thing, the key issue there is, the big growth in that space is a lot of it is international and emerging market where the pricing structure is a lot more competitive.

That creates these pockets of somewhat negative for a quarter or two and then you work your way back in.

That's the difference because those, the growth coming, and typically in Network Power a lot is emerging market in a very competitive space and that creates that discontinuity relative to the price cost.

And also, the industry has historically been working on a chain of trying to reduce costs at all times, make it smaller, use less cost.

So that's just that industry in general.

That industry is always given us the hardest price cost, but we can also move the quickest in that industry to close that gap.

Right, and then one last question, just to make sure everybody is on the same page here.

I know you don't give quarterly guidance but seasonality for you guys has been kind of all over the map for the last 10 years in the second quarter, during the downturn, it's down, during the upturn, it's up as much as 25% to 30%.

Is Q2 kind of normal seasonality?

It looks like it's a pretty decent pick up from Q1 at least in consensus and just want to make sure we understand all of the moving parts so that we, like you said, people didn't pick up on some things this quarter.

Just to make sure that those that don't do their own modeling, that doesn't happen again, maybe if you could help us out there?

I want to get the volume where we sit in the volume right now.

We just reported a $5.5 billion first quarter volume.

Right now we're looking at, give me a second here okay?

Because we do-- sequentially, our sales will go up.

We're looking at our sales going up.

I wouldn't be surprised our sales, we just did $5.5 billion, I wouldn't be surprised if our sales aren't $300 million or a little bit better above the $5.5 billion.

So you have that impact.

The other thing is we're going to be looking at our operating margin will be moving up and moving back up from the mid-15s, we'll be moving back up into the 16% range.

So typically, if we have this type of volume picking up which we're having right now in the seasonality, we will see a much better second quarter here.

You're exactly right.

Okay, just wanted to make sure.

Thanks a lot.

See you Thursday.

Good questions.

Nigel Coe, Deutsche Bank.

Hello, Nigel.

Nigel, you there?

We lost Nigel.

Eli Lustgarten, Longbow Securities.

Good afternoon and happy ice storms.

You getting the ice storm?

Are you in Cleveland, Eli?

No, I'm in St.

Louis.

Oh, you're in St.

Louis?

I'm here watching it.

We had three shareholders today at our shareholders meeting .

You're the only Company I covered whose tax rate actually was higher than I expected, particularly with the (Inaudible) and December 17 given the full year R&D tax credit retroactive 2010, 100% write-off retroactive September 9.

Can you help me, why is the tax rate up and staying up at 31% this year?

Because we make money and we make money in the US.

Go ahead.

Particularly because did you get any benefit from the R&D tax credit or something?

Eli, this is Frank.

We did get benefit from the R&D tax credit and the DMD.

What we have though is a mix shift in terms of where the profits are being earned in higher effective tax rate areas, and we have a delay in a renewal of a tax holiday in Asia and another one that's phasing out.

So we've got a couple of one-time things that are running into the tax rate this year.

We fundamentally are very profitable in North America.

We don't shelter our North America profitability.

We actually, we're incorporated here in Missouri as you know, Eli, and we pay taxes, and we believe that's something we try to do.

Obviously we try to minimize it but we still pay taxes.

And as you look around the world right now, the US has the highest corporate tax rate and something we're working very hard on and I expect us to be in the low-30%s here until there actually is a resolution relative to the US tax code.

So we'll actually creep up this year and then creep up again next year is what you're saying?

It potentially could, but I would look around this 30% to 32% range here.

That's where we're going to be and depending on what happens in the growth cycle.

I look at it as a good thing because if the US business is doing well that means we're producing a lot of good product here and making pretty good money at it.

Okay, and then I have a question on the process margins which were much higher -- very impressed in the first quarter.

If you're winning all the project business, when does that bigger business start hitting and would that dampen the margin improvements or sort of level it out as it goes to 20% and how would that impact?

Most of the projects here right now, we're having an increased MRO, we're a very good spending rate on that area.

The small projects are hitting now.

The larger projects will hit later this year, early next year.

So from that standpoint, what we try to do is get our cost reductions ahead of the game right now which drives our margin up and then we fight very hard at this higher level, at this 20% -- I guess what do we have EBIT, 19%, 20%?

18%.

We'll fight it -- we'll get back up to that 20% level and we'll fight it there during the cycle from the standpoint of our cost reduction repositioning.

But fundamentally, we have a very competitive structure within our Process business.

The guys do a great job of delivering, even with projects, we deliver pretty good profitability.

Margins will build up to the 20% or whatever it is and then you can sort of level out as you mix shift to the bigger projects?

You got it.

Thank you.

You going to come here Thursday?

I'll be there.

Okay.

Thank you.

Terry Darling, Goldman Sachs.

Thanks, Dave.

Just wanting to revisit a couple items from previous callers.

So I guess the first one would be on the North America HVAC outlook, since the last update, can you just tell us really what has changed?

And in the context of taking up the revenue growth expectations for the year, how did Climate change within that context?

I would say the Climate business hasn't changed, when you see the forecast by the business segments this week, it hasn't changed much.

We've been talking around 7%, 8% all year long.

I still believe that's what's going to be and I don't think that's changed much.

I think the places we've seen improvements clearly are Industrial Automation and Process have been the big drivers for our improvements.

And Climate had a very strong year last year and I think you're going to see climate as you see us in the 7%, 8% range.

There's always a wild card.

We don't know what's going to happen as you know, Terry, but I think right now my gut tells me that 7%, 8%.

There was a lot of scale back as you well know in the second half of the calendar year 2010.

So we'll see what happens.

I feel pretty good about that.

I'm hoping we'll have a better second half in the Tools and Storage area.

It would be nice to see some recovery there.

These guys have fought hard in a very difficult environment and not having growth for almost three years now.

And then, in terms of the Network Powers business ability to offset raw material pressure relative to the last cycle, its been a lot of change in the industry structure, ownerships and consolidation, global customers and so forth.

How do you feel about the industry landscape this cycle versus last cycle in terms of obviously there will be some lag, price increases hit you before you can pass those on.

We're seeing some of that now, but how do you feel about the ability on a full cycle basis, this cycle versus last cycle given those changes?

There's been a little bit of consolidation, but it's still a very competitive world.

And again, I'll go back to-- from a standpoint of the mature markets, the US and Europe, obviously there's been a pretty strong consolidation, but in emerging markets there's still a lot of competition.

That's where the price pressure, the tougher time will be.

I don't think there's going to be any discernible difference between the ability of recapturing price or not recapturing price.

I think it will be a little bit better, but it's not going to be a big difference, Terry.

And would you characterize that any differently embedded versus the EPS business?

Yes, I would say on the reliable power side, it's a little bit better marketplace from that standpoint.

Right.

They're more disciplined, let's put it that way.

And then on the comment that you look to do a couple of acquisitions this year, $2.8 billion of free cash flow, $1 billion on dividends, $1.8 billion for other fun things, can you provide a little bit more color in terms of where your higher levels of interest lie or where you're seeing some opportunities there?

We went through a period where we did $4 billion and now we're digesting.

We got ahead of most people in this acquisition world.

I would say that I still believe we're going to do $400 million and $500 million of acquisitions.

It's not a big year at this point in time.

I also expect us to do share repurchase in the $400 million to $500 million range.

I don't see that changing this point in time.

We are out working the acquisition front and we will-- if we have to strike we'll strike, but right now, I haven't found a lot of assets that get me real excited at this point in time.

So you're building cash, paying down debt with the balance?

You got it.

And then the pressure will build on us, as you could imagine, because right now we're less than 50% payback to our shareholders in operating cash flow -- and so that pressure will build.

The board, we talked today about this issue.

That pressure will build as we go through this year as we move into 2012 and I fully understand that.

And you did $50 million of buyback in the first quarter?

Yes, we'll pick that up.

We're going to start ramping up to a run rate around $400 million.

Great, thanks very much.

You're welcome.

See you Thursday.

Yes.

John Inch, Merill Lynch.

Thank you.

Hello, John.

How you doing?

Good, looking forward to this week.

Good.

Network Power margins.

So if pricing, let's just say, was more neutral-ish and you hadn't seen the extra rise in raws and the expediting costs per supply chain, what would margins have basically come in at in the first quarter all else equal?

That's a good question.

That's an interesting -- I mean if I was 20 pounds lighter too I could run a marathon, but --

I thought you could a marathon.

Yeah, right.

I'm getting old.

I have no idea.

I mean obviously it would be higher.

We'll talk about where we think the year is going to end and how the year will progress as we go forward, but I've always felt that this business over time will trend up towards the 15% EBIT and we trend down the low end around 9% to 10% range.

We're in the early stages of the consolidation restructuring mode here.

So this business will continue to trend upward towards that 13%, 14%, 15% EBIT over time here.

Unfortunately, we have the amortization we have to deal with here for a couple years but this business is inherently profitable as you know, so we'll work that way.

Alright.

I mean, it sounds like it would be a few points higher anyway, right?

Yes, of course it would, but unfortunately we have -- (expletive) happens.

We've got things we have to deal with and we're restructuring.

Oops.

That's okay, I forgive you.

Dave, working capital, you called out a couple of the businesses that maybe had little excess working capital, but I kind of thought the $450 million of working capital, I thought of it as more opportunistic or an investment based on the outlook of your businesses.

Is that not the way you would characterize it to a degree that you guys are getting ready a little bit for some of the expected demand ramp and if so, where?

The answer is yes, but also I don't give people an excuse for that too.

We did definitely build inventory in preparation of a stronger second and third quarter which based on our forecast which we told you tells we're going to have a strong second and third quarter.

But also, in the two businesses, in particular of Industrial Automation and Network Power, embedded power and computing, we did have a situation where we went off track and we brought in too much material, because we just couldn't match up in the electronics area and we couldn't get the stuff out the door on the IA area.

So, what you're going to see from a growth standpoint is the Industrial Automations have a very good couple quarters here and we should also have a pretty good couple quarters here in embedded power and computing as we work our way through that.

Inventory building is fine, but I don't use that as an excuse relative to allowing people to bring in too much.

And I would say we brought in too much.

I understand.

How much was the overbuild in Automation and Network computing?

My gut tells me we put in $200 million too much inventory.

That's my rule of thumb, and that's -- we have to work that off and we'll work that off in the next two quarters.

So the other $200 million to $250 million could have been seen as opportunistic investment, right?

Yes.

Just lastly, Dave, BP --

British Petroleum?

Yes.

Okay.

I don't think they call it that anymore.BP decided, I think they're going to sell off half of the US refineries, a big customer of yours.

Does that have any kind of an impact and I'm thinking more in the context that the new owner might want to do upgrading.

It depends who buys it.

I don't know, have they announced?

I've not seen that.

I've been locked up today, but who did they announce they are selling it to?

It just said that they're selling half of their US refineries including Texas City.

Okay, Texas is a big one.

Whoever buys them and they want to go through the process it would be good, because BP basically haven't been making the investments necessary as they've been focused on other things.

So that would be good from a US customer base standpoint depending on who buys that business.

Yes, it would be good, not near term, I would say more like six months after they buy it.

Right, makes sense.

Okay, thank you.

See you Thursday, John.

See you Thursday, Dave.

Thanks.

Brian Langenberg, Langenberg and Company.

Thank you, just a real quick one, pretty much everything else we can cover at the end of the week.

Dave, just touch on one thing.

Plus 11% very strong core growth.

You've run the Company very efficiently.

Just talk about headcount that you may have been having to start to add in the quarter, what that looks like.

What kind of frankly pick up in heads to do things are we going to see at the growth rates, do you need to do that?

Our acceleration of the headcount has not been all that rapid.

Let's put it that way.

If I look at the headcounts, we're getting pretty good productivity.

We're mixing a little bit right now.

So I would say in the last six months we probably brought on globally, we probably brought on less than 5,000 people globally.

That's a net number?

Yes.

Okay.

If I look at it right now, I'm taking out the divestitures, I'm just looking at the underlying business.

Right, understood.

Because if I use the divestitures it looks like we went down.

I just look over the last six months, I think we're less than 5,000 people we brought in.

At this point in time if I look at what I would call the US and I look at the Western Europe and what we'd call the more higher cost areas and over the last six months, the number is still flat or slightly down-ish.

Okay, are we at or near an inflection point where you simply do have to add people or do you feel like you can achieve the growth targets that you have without really doing that off of what you own today?

Our plans are adding people.

I would say that in total if you look at the total Company, we ended the year around a little bit under 130,000.

I would say we're going to trend towards the 135,000, 136,000, maybe 137,000 as the year progresses.

So in total we're going to be adding people around the world in all locations.

It is definitely a point in time that we're going to have to start bringing people in.

The other issue you have going on is you always have retirements too, so we have a lot of that replacement going on.

You always hear people talking about, I've added 5,000 people, but they forgot to tell you they probably had 4,000 retirements.

Right.

Okay, thank you.

We'll see you Friday or Thursday.

Thursday, I hope.

Amtrak out of Joliet.

I'll do anything to see you.

Take a car.

No, snow.

That's why we take trains.

Okay, Brian, good luck.

Thank you.

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer Fund.

Thanks, Dave.

A lot of questions coming at Climate Tech and you gave a growth for the year, but a lot of moving pieces.

Some tougher comps coming on, but you had some China capacity adds and maybe some acceleration in refrigeration trends.

So seasonality always shape shifts a little year to year, but can you kind of just speak a little bit more to the Climate Tech trajectory?

I'm optimistic about Climate Tech, and from the standpoint of the recovery we're seeing a little bit in Europe and the recovery we're seeing both in India area and Southeast Asia and China.

I feel very good that we'll have a pretty good year in Climate Tech this year from the standpoint of the technologies and the new products and things like that.

First quarter, what were we down the first quarter flat?

No, we were up about --

4%.

So as I look at the year, and that was a very difficult comp as you know from last year.

So I think the year we will progress well.

From my perspective I don't expect -- we haven't built any extraordinary warm weather here in the United States.

So I think if we have any good, warm weather based on the opposite cold weather we're having right now, we'll see a pretty reasonable Climate Tech year.

I feel we have a pretty good run there like I said, if we can do a 7% this year after doing 15%, 16% last year, that's a pretty good year for us.

Okay, and then with the US revs up in line with the international and higher margin business, just kind of raises the question, what are your thoughts on US corporate tax policy, obviously some noise about being more competitive.

I think fundamentally we need to restructure, the total US corporate tax policy, including from repatriation.

I think what we need to do is basically get rid of all of the special one off deals that have been struck out over the year and say look at, this is the tax rate, this is what our competitors do, this is what Germany does, that's why Germany is so good.

Germany has set out -- this is what the tax rate is, there's no special discounts or no special credits and things like that.

This is what the tax rate is, you write a check, it's going to be 20% or 25%, we repatriate the money, you're going to pay taxes no matter what, 5%.

I think that's what we need to do.

I think we got to take out these special deals that certain industries have gotten out there and forced companies to pay what I call their fair share of taxes and make this country competitive once again.

We have become the least competitive country out there.

And it's real simple, but you got to stop all of those special deals that are sitting there in Washington DC and pay your taxes.

Well said.

Thanks, Dave.

You're welcome.

And our last question is a follow-up question from the line of Nigel Coe with Deutsche Bank.

Hi, good afternoon.

Good afternoon, Nigel.

You made it back.

Yes, not really a follow-up.

I didn't get the first one in.

So --

Okay.

We'll give you two questions then, Nigel.

Okay, that's great.

That's all I need.

So basically, I know you're going to talk about this in a bit more depth on Thursday and Friday, but the 3 points bump up in your organic growth this year, that's a big move for Emerson.

How much of that is due to the order trend you saw the last three months versus an updated view of the next 12 months?

Two things have happened from my perspective.

One, the underlying what I would say fixed investment is recovering much faster than I thought would recover and that's created 1 or 2 points of the bump.

The second thing that's happened is, in the US in particular, people are starting to invest from the standpoint of trying to figure out how to drive productivity and drive their profitability.

So, I'm seeing a stronger US, and I'm seeing a recovery around the world relative to people spending capital going after -- from the standpoint of productivity and growth.

So that's, in the last six months, have really started to solidify and stay there and I think now it's going to be there for a couple years and so I think we're on a good phase right now.

We're also coming off a very low bottom from the standpoint of how bad it got.

So on the comparisons relative to the capital but every one you look at, capital spending is going up on the global companies and going up significantly.

Yes, and that's a good point because I think last cycle I think you only had one year where you had double digit organic growth, and you're going to do one in basically the second year of your recovery, actually the first year of recovery.

Do you think you'll have multiple years of double digit growth?

I'm not ready to say that 2012 is going to be double digit.

Basically though, I think that you'll see on Thursday, I believe the underlying GFI growth will be higher in 2012 than 2011.

The global GFI.

And then a couple quick ones, Dave.

Firstly, North American resi down in Q4.

I understand the OEMs were cutting inventory quite aggressively during the quarter.

How much of the decline was due to inventory adjustments versus end markets?

That's hard for us to tell, but there's no doubt I would say a chunk of that.

I'm taking a guess, let's say a third of that was what I would say inventory reductions and people being cautious about having inventory.

We're sitting real good relative to inventories out there right now.

Okay, great.

And then Canada, you see Canada growing 25%, can you just maybe talk about is that oil sands or something else?

It's definitely a Process guy's, oil sands coming back and other Process investments, oil and gas.

But also, they had a bad year last year so their comps are really easy.

I think Canada is going to have a very good year because of the investments going on up there.

It goes in cycles, so I would expect Canada to be a pretty good year, but it's definitely the Process side driving that.

That's great.

Thanks, Dave.

See you Thursday, okay?

Absolutely.

Okay, thanks.

With that, I want to say thanks everybody for joining us today and I look forward to seeing you Thursday.

I think the weather will clear so you guys can get in, and we have a very exciting day and a half for you from the standpoint of presentations, but also the chance to see what's going on across the Company and have a chance to meet people who really run the Company.

The business leaders and the OC are important, but also we have a lot of other good people that run the Company day to day that you'll have a chance to sit down and talk to as you spend the day and a half here.

So I wish you well, and thanks everybody for joining us today.

Goodbye.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this concludes the Emerson first quarter fiscal 2011 results conference call.

If you'd like to listen to a replay of today's call, you may dial 1-800-406-7325 and enter the access number of 4401178.

ACT would like to thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.