伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 業績強勁,Advanced Materials 及 Chemical Intermediates 皆有顯著成長,Q2 營收與去年同期相比大幅提升,Q3 預期維持高檔,全年展望優於4月時的預期
    • 公司下修 Renew(循環經濟)相關營收展望,主因為產能限制及客戶拉貨速度較慢,但整體仍維持強勁成長
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Advanced Materials 受惠於創新產品與循環經濟(Renew)平台,帶動強勁成長,特別是 specialty 及 rPET 雙引擎
      • Additives & Functional Products 受惠於穩定市場(如醫藥、水處理、農業、個人護理、航空),加上成本轉嫁能力強,維持高毛利
      • Chemical Intermediates 因去年停機基期低、今年產能正常,加上供應緊張帶來市占提升,推升銷量與利潤
      • 公司持續推動創新,Tritan、Performance Films、超高純度溶劑等新產品帶來額外成長動能
    • 風險:
      • 全球經濟疲弱,消費性耐久財、汽車等市場需求仍低迷,循環經濟產品拉貨速度受限
      • 中東地緣政治風險及原物料價格波動,對 Chemical Intermediates 價差與需求帶來不確定性
      • 纖維事業(Fibers)受中國關稅、能源成本上升及產能利用率下降影響,短期內復甦有限
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Advanced Materials:Q2 銷量年增5%,Renew(循環經濟)上半年營收超過1億美元,較去年同期翻倍,全年預計約一半成長來自 Renew
    • Chemical Intermediates:Q2 銷量大幅年增,主因去年有計畫性與非計畫性停機,今年產能正常,並有市占提升
    • Performance Films:中國市場策略奏效,Q2 營運顯著改善,預期2027年Q1將有2500-3000萬美元的易比較基期增益
    • Fibers:下半年 tow(醋酸纖維絲束)客戶為達年度最低採購量,預期拉貨顯著回升,全年銷量與去年持平;紡織品(textiles)上半年低迷,下半年有望回升至去年水準
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收展望優於4月時預期,Renew 相關營收略低於先前區間
    • Additives & Functional Products、Advanced Materials 毛利率維持穩定,預期下半年價格成本有正向貢獻
    • 資本支出(CapEx)未於逐字稿中揭露
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Advanced Materials Q2 銷量成長,展望下半年能否持續?循環經濟(Renew)貢獻如何?
      A: Q2 銷量強勁,主因創新產品與循環經濟平台帶動,下半年 Renew 產能將持續爬升,預期銷量與上半年持平,全年約一半成長來自 Renew,另一半來自 specialty。
    • Q: Chemical Intermediates Q2 銷量大增,主要驅動因素?市占提升能否持續?
      A: 主因去年有多次停機,今年產能正常,加上供應緊張帶來市占提升,北美高毛利市場表現佳,預期下半年市占可維持,但價差變動具不確定性。
    • Q: Additives & Functional Products 毛利率穩健,背後原因及下半年展望?
      A: 受惠於穩定市場佔比高、成本轉嫁能力強,CPT 合約提供毛利穩定性,下半年預期毛利率可維持。
    • Q: 循環經濟(Renew)平台產能利用率與未來擴產規劃?
      A: Kingsport 廠去年產能利用率約50%,今年已提升,測試證明可達100%,並有計畫性去瓶頸可提升至130%。rPET 產能受限於聚合物線,正積極優化以支援明年成長。
    • Q: 成本控管進度與分布?
      A: 全年成本節省目標1.25-1.5億美元,主要貢獻來自 Advanced Materials 與 Chemical Intermediates,Fibers 與 Additives & Functional Products 次之。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the second-quarter 2026 Eastman conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website at www.eastman.com. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle, Eastman Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    各位大家好,歡迎參加伊士曼 2026 年第二季電話會議。今天的會議將被錄音。本次電話會議將於伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 進行即時直播。我現在把電話交給伊士曼投資人關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生,請開始。

  • Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

    Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

  • Thank you, Lucy, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Willie McLain, Executive Vice President and CFO. Yesterday, after market closed, we posted our second-quarter 2026 financial results news release and SEC 8-K filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investors section of our website, eastman.com.

    謝謝你,Lucy,各位早安,也感謝大家加入我們。今天與我一同出席電話會議的有董事會主席兼執行長 Mark Costa,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Willie McLain。昨天收盤後,我們發布了 2026 年第二季財務結果新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交的 8-K 文件。我們的簡報投影片與相關的事先準備講稿已放在我們網站 eastman.com 的投資人專區。

  • Before we begin, I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in our second-quarter 2026 financial results news release during this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks, and in our filings with the SEC, including the Form 10-Q to be filed for second-quarter 2026 and the Form 10-K filed for full-year 2025.

    在開始之前,我先說明兩點。第一,在本次簡報中,您將聽到若干關於我們計畫與預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能會有重大差異。與未來預期相關的若干因素,已或將在本次電話會議的 2026 年第二季財務結果新聞稿、前述投影片與事先準備講稿,以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中詳述,包括將就 2026 年第二季提交的 10-Q 表格,以及就 2025 全年已提交的 10-K 表格。

  • Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the second-quarter 2026 financial results news release.

    第二,本簡報中提及的盈餘排除若干非核心及異常項目。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表及其他相關揭露(包括對排除與調整項目的說明)可在 2026 年第二季財務結果新聞稿中取得。

  • As we posted the slides and accompanying prepared remarks on our website last night, we will go now straight into Q&A. Lucy, please, let's get started with our first question.

    由於我們昨晚已在網站上發布投影片與隨附的事先準備講稿,現在將直接進入問答環節。Lucy,請開始我們的第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Cunningham, Citigroup.

    Patrick Cunningham,花旗集團。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • Good morning. Just on Advanced Materials, pretty solid volume and mix growth in the second quarter. You mentioned some offsets from lower OEM production, weak aftermarket durables I guess, how should we think about the recovery trajectory of these weaker end markets heading into '26 and the sustainability of this volume growth and confidence in ultimately a stronger second half?

    早安。關於先進材料(Advanced Materials),第二季的銷量與產品組合成長相當穩健。你們提到部分被較低的 OEM 產量、以及我想是疲弱的耐久財售後市場所抵銷;展望 2026 年,這些較弱終端市場的復甦軌跡應如何看待?以及這樣的銷量成長可持續性如何?對於下半年最終轉強的信心又如何?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, Patrick, and good morning. I have to say I'm really incredibly excited to be talking about the company today and the tremendous execution our teams are doing across all businesses has really been a great result in Q2. And now we're looking at how we move forward in Q3 in the back half, I think, is an important conversation.

    當然可以,Patrick,早安。我必須說,今天談到公司我真的非常振奮;我們團隊在各事業的卓越執行,讓第二季交出非常好的成果。而現在我們在看第三季以及下半年如何推進,我認為這是一個重要的討論。

  • What I'd say, when you think about the back half of the year, we're not expecting any improvement in the end markets when it comes to sort of the weak discretionary markets, auto, B and C, consumer durables. We're certainly benefiting from modest growth in what we call our stable markets across the entire portfolio. And so we're not really seeing any sort of changes there.

    我想說的是,當你思考下半年時,對於較弱的選擇性消費市場——汽車、B 與 C 級(車款/級距)、消費性耐久財——我們並不預期終端市場會有任何改善。我們確實受惠於我們所稱的「穩定市場」在整體產品組合中的溫和成長。因此在那方面,我們並沒有看到任何變化。

  • We're not seeing any impact from the Mid East war yet on sort of hurting end market demand in a material way across the world as far as we can see it right now. So in that context, I think we're really well positioned to grow earnings, not just for Advanced Materials, but for the corporation as we look at the back half of the year.

    就目前所見,我們尚未看到中東戰爭在全球範圍內對終端需求造成實質性的負面影響。在這樣的背景下,我認為我們在下半年不僅在先進材料,整體公司層面也都處於非常有利的位置來推動盈餘成長。

  • Starting with Advanced Materials, what you can certainly see is the volume growth has been strong into Q2, which is driven by a lot of wins in the marketplace, innovation-driven wins, and the growth that we're having in the circular business is still somewhat modest and will ramp up into the back half of the year. So you'll see the Renew volumes continue to ramp up. You'll see we'll continue to win in marketplaces through innovation, which would offset what is a normal volume decline in the back half for AM. We won't see that.

    先從先進材料談起,你可以清楚看到第二季的銷量成長很強勁,這主要來自市場上的多項勝出案、以創新驅動的勝出案;而我們循環經濟業務的成長目前仍相對溫和,並將在下半年加速提升。因此你會看到 Renew 的銷量持續爬升。你也會看到我們將持續透過創新在市場中勝出,這將抵銷先進材料在下半年通常會出現的正常銷量下滑。我們不會看到那樣的下滑。

  • Volumes are more likely to be similar to the first half. So that's actually a good solid base to build from. And then on top of that, with Advanced Materials, you've got asset utilization tailwinds that are coming from all the actions we took. And we mentioned in the prepared remarks, where we reduced finished goods in the front half to offset some of the raw materials we're buying, like paraxylene to make sure we had secured supply. That created a bit of a utilization headwind in the first half.

    銷量更可能與上半年相近。因此這其實是一個很扎實的基礎可供延伸。此外,在先進材料方面,資產利用率也會受惠於我們採取的各項行動而形成順風。我們在事先準備講稿中提到,上半年我們降低了成品庫存,以抵銷我們為確保供應而採購的部分原料(例如用於生產的對二甲苯)。這在上半年對產能利用率造成了一些逆風。

  • That will sort of flip around to being a tailwind as these markets remain solid, and we have to ramp up production. In fact, we're really excited that Tritan line is coming online now because we are pretty limited on capacity with the volumes we had in Q2 and how we've switched one of our Tritan lines to serve the PET growth.

    隨著這些市場維持穩健、且我們必須提高產量,這將轉而成為順風。事實上,我們對 Tritan 產線現在開始上線感到非常興奮,因為以第二季的銷量水準來看,我們的產能相當吃緊,而且我們已將其中一條 Tritan 產線轉去支援 PET 的成長。

  • So that's coming on just at the right time. And now we're taking our paraxylene that we bought in advance for supply reasons and converting it to finished goods in the back half of the year. So it gives you a tailwind on utilization, but not a headwind on cash. So that's all going well.

    因此這個時點正好。而現在,我們將先前因供應考量而提前採購的對二甲苯,在下半年轉換為成品。所以它會在利用率上帶來順風,但不會在現金上形成逆風。整體進展都很順利。

  • And then on the price cost side, the team has done a phenomenal job of getting prices up with raw materials. And as they've caught up, that will now flip into a tailwind in the back half of the year also helping AM have solid earnings growth into the back half of the year, which is not our typical pattern. So that's great to see that strength build.

    另外在價格與成本方面,團隊在原料上漲的環境下把售價調升做得非常出色。隨著價格追上成本,這也將在下半年轉為順風,協助先進材料在下半年實現穩健的盈餘成長,這並非我們典型的季節性型態。因此很高興看到這股強勢正在建立。

  • The second driver I would just mention to finish off the story is Fibers, the tow volumes will increase in the back half of the year, materially as customers are increasing their orders to meet their annual minimum volume commitments with us. So that's coming through and there'll be some textile recovery we see as well, because volumes were quite low in the first half of the year and some of the wins we're having will start bringing us back to sort of full volumes relative to last year.

    我想補充的第二個驅動因素是纖維(Fibers):下半年 tow(絲束)銷量將顯著增加,因為客戶正在提高訂單,以滿足其與我們之間年度最低採購量承諾。因此這將逐步反映出來;同時我們也會看到部分紡織市場復甦,因為上半年銷量相當低,而我們取得的一些勝出案將開始帶動我們回到相對於去年的接近滿載銷量水準。

  • There will be some offsets, obviously, in Chemical Intermediates and how those margins may moderate with the state of the Mid East conflict. What I'd say on that front, though, is it's pretty uncertain what's going to play out right now. But right now, we're expecting some moderation. And then as for petrol products, we'll have some seasonal decline like normal.

    當然也會有一些抵銷因素,主要在化學中間體(Chemical Intermediates),以及在中東衝突情勢下其利潤率可能會有所趨緩。不過就這一點而言,接下來會如何發展目前仍相當不確定。但就目前而言,我們預期會有一些趨緩。至於石油產品(petrol products),則會如往常一樣出現季節性下滑。

  • So when you put it all together, we're really in a good position to deliver a good strong earnings improvement relative to last year. We basically had a strong beat in Q2. We're talking about a very solid Q3 and so when I think about our view on earnings for the full year today, I would say that it's better than where we were in April and certainly feel like we're on a good track to very strong earnings growth in this context.

    因此綜合來看,我們確實處於非常有利的位置,能夠相較去年交出強勁的盈餘改善。我們在第二季基本上大幅超出預期。我們談的是第三季非常穩健;因此當我思考我們目前對全年盈餘的看法,我會說它比我們在四月時的預期更好,也確實覺得在此背景下,我們正走在實現非常強勁盈餘成長的良好軌道上。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you so much. And then maybe just a follow up on Chemical Intermediates. I think the direction and magnitude spread changes is anyone's guess at this point. But you had a pretty robust volume increase in the quarter. I guess what sort of dynamics drove this volume surge, and how much of it was realizing some of those durable share gains you alluded to last quarter versus maybe some temporary pull forward there?

    了解。非常感謝。接著我想再追問一下化學中間體(Chemical Intermediates)。我想此時此刻,價差變動的方向與幅度仍很難判斷。但你們本季的銷量增幅相當強勁。我想問,究竟是哪些動態因素推動了這波銷量激增?其中有多少是你們上季提到的、較具持續性的市占提升開始反映出來,還是有一部分可能只是短期的提前拉貨?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So on Chemical Intermediates and volumes, the vast majority of the volume increase was driven by, on a year-over-year basis, lack of significant shutdowns this year relative to what we had last year. Last year, we had planned shutdowns and some unplanned shutdowns. And so we lost a lot of capacity to sell the market. This year, the volumes are running at normal capacity, which is a lot better than where we were.

    是的。就化學中間體與銷量而言,絕大多數的銷量增加,若以年對年來看,是因為今年相較去年沒有發生顯著的停工。去年我們有計畫性停工,也有一些非計畫性停工。因此我們損失了大量可供市場銷售的產能。今年的銷量是在正常產能下運行,這比我們先前的狀況好很多。

  • That does include some pickup in share due to the supply tightness in the marketplace. That's a quality of earnings comment, which is we're always going to sell the volume. It's just where do we sell and what the margins are. In North America, we picked up some share where the margins are much more attractive than the export markets.

    其中也包含因市場供應偏緊而帶來的一些市占提升。這其實是關於獲利品質的評論,也就是我們總是會把量賣出去。差別只在於賣到哪裡,以及毛利是多少。在北美,我們拿到了一些市占,而那裡的利潤率比出口市場更具吸引力。

  • Obviously, at the moment, the export markets are also very attractive. We picked up some volumes in some attractive spots around the world where we saw opportunity to capture that value given the disruptions in the marketplace. So the volumes are very good, but it's more about mix quality and the tightness and the spreads that stacked on top of that.

    當然,就目前而言,出口市場也非常有吸引力。我們也在全球一些具吸引力的區域增加了部分銷量,因為我們看到機會,能在市場擾動之下把握並捕捉那個價值。所以銷量表現非常好,但更關鍵的是產品組合品質、供應緊俏程度,以及疊加其上的價差表現。

  • We also emptied out the cavern on ethylene at very attractive prices. So we had some stored up ethylene that we sold off in the marketplace.

    我們也以非常有吸引力的價格把乙烯洞庫清空了。也就是說,我們把先前儲存的乙烯拿到市場上賣掉。

  • Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

    Patrick Cunningham - Analyst

  • Thank you so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Spector, UBS.

    UBS 的 Josh Spector。

  • Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on Advanced Materials volumes. So I mean, obviously, a solid quarter this quarter with the 5% growth you had. I'm wondering, one, can you split that between what you call the base business versus the methanolysis PRT contribution?

    我想追問一下先進材料(Advanced Materials)的銷量。本季你們有 5% 的成長,表現很不錯。我想問第一點,你能否把這拆分為你們所稱的基礎業務(base business)與甲醇解(methanolysis)PRT 的貢獻?

  • And then in your comments on 3Q, it seems like you're talking about volumes flat, but the comp is really easy. So I'm not sure what you're baking in there versus a year ago and why volumes wouldn't be up. I'm obviously missing something. So if you can help me there.

    另外,在你們對第三季(3Q)的評論中,你們似乎在說銷量持平,但比較基期其實很容易。所以我不太確定你們相較去年到底納入了哪些假設,為什麼銷量不會成長。我顯然漏掉了什麼。如果你能幫我釐清就太好了。

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me just start clarifying what I said, volume slide is a sequential comment, Josh. It will be substantially higher than last year. So we were just talking about volumes will be similar to Q2 in Q3. So in that context, which is much higher than last year, the volumes -- a lot of it is wins we've had.

    Josh,我先澄清一下我剛才說的:銷量持平是指季對季(sequential)的評論。相較去年會大幅提高。所以我們只是說第三季的銷量會與第二季相近。在這個脈絡下(而且明顯高於去年),銷量的很大一部分來自我們拿下的訂單/勝出(wins)。

  • On the Renew side, it's important to note that the growth we're seeing is greater than $100 million, which is incredibly strong in the first half, doubled revenue compared to last year. It's evenly split roughly between specialty growth and rPET. So we are seeing continued wins and growth in the specialty side of the house. And we are also seeing the PET wins happening as well, and ramping up.

    在 Renew 這一塊,重要的是要注意,我們看到的成長超過 1 億美元,這在上半年非常強勁,營收較去年翻倍。大致上是由特用(specialty)成長與 rPET 各占一半。因此我們在特用業務端持續看到新的勝出與成長。同時我們也看到 PET 的勝出正在發生,並且正在爬坡放量。

  • And I would say more of the front half is on the specialty side, the back half is more on the PET side as we're ramping up those capacities to serve the market. We've been a bit challenged on some of the production capability and getting it fully lined out, which is part of why we reduced the revenue outlook is capacity constrained a little bit of slowness in the market, but still incredibly strong growth relative to last year.

    我會說上半年更多來自特用端,下半年則更多來自 PET 端,因為我們正在把那些產能爬坡起來以服務市場。我們在部分生產能力上確實遇到一些挑戰,尚在把它完全理順到位;這也是我們下調營收展望的部分原因——產能有些受限,加上市場略有放緩,但相較去年仍是非常強勁的成長。

  • So we don't really break out in detail by quarter what is going to be Renew versus the rest of our business. But what I can tell you is when you look at the full year, about half the revenue growth in the Advanced Materials segment is going to be from Renew and about half is going to be from specialty growth. So that also says great that circular is kicking in, great that it's delivering additional growth with that growth platform, but also the specialty businesses are healthy.

    我們不會按季度非常細地拆分 Renew 與其他業務的占比。但我可以告訴你,從全年來看,先進材料事業部的營收成長大約一半來自 Renew,另一半來自特用成長。這也表示:循環(circular)業務正在發力、透過這個成長平台帶來額外成長,這很好;同時特用業務本身也很健康。

  • And through innovation, not in market demand, we're creating our own growth and success across the marketplace. One of the great stories in that is actually Performance Films. So in the first quarter, earnings were quite challenged in the segment level. That was mostly due to films and in particular, Performance Films. And we took a series of actions that were very successful.

    而且我們是透過創新,而不是依賴市場需求,來創造自身的成長與在市場上的成功。其中一個很好的案例其實是高性能薄膜(Performance Films)。第一季時,該事業部層級的獲利承壓相當明顯。那主要是因為薄膜業務,尤其是高性能薄膜。我們採取了一系列行動,而且非常成功。

  • So we launched a better broader market strategy to win share in China that's been incredibly successful as we move from Q1 to Q2. And also, we took out an optimized -- a bunch of capacity to optimize what we make in North America and ramp up our asset in China, which is a much lower cost asset. So big improvement in cost structure.

    我們推出了更好、覆蓋更廣的市場策略,以在中國取得市占;從第一季到第二季的推進來看,成效非常顯著。同時,我們也移除/調整了一部分產能以最佳化我們在北美的產品組合,並把中國的資產拉升產能;那是一個成本更低的資產。因此成本結構有了很大的改善。

  • So that led to pretty a big part of the improvement in earnings from Q1 to Q2. It also means when you get to 2027, we're going to have an easy comp and probably do $25 million to $30 million better in Q1 next year relative to this year. So good adder for next year as well.

    因此,這成為第一季到第二季獲利改善的一個相當重要的來源。這也意味著到了 2027 年,我們的比較基期會很容易,而且明年第一季相較今年第一季,表現可能會好 2,500 萬到 3,000 萬美元。所以對明年也是一個不錯的加分項。

  • Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. Yeah. That's helpful. And I apologize on the sequential vers year on year here. I guess you made an interesting comment on the PRT side or some of the rPET wins you're trying to go for. You talked about it being more capacity and a ramp-up.

    好的。謝謝。是的。這很有幫助。另外我也為剛才把季對季與年對年搞混致歉。我想你剛才在 PRT 端或你們正在爭取的一些 rPET 勝出上,提到了一個有意思的點。你說那更像是產能與爬坡的問題。

  • I guess in your comments, in your prepared remarks when you updated on the circular growth, you seem to talk more about consumer demand. I guess, which is the bigger factor to your adjustment of your growth? Is it the consumer demand or was it your ability to supply?

    我想在你們的事先準備稿中,當你們更新循環成長時,聽起來更像是在談消費者需求。我想問,調整成長預期的更大因素是哪一個?是消費者需求,還是你們的供應能力?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'd say it's a bit half and half. So there was some limitations on production on the rPET side. We're not changing the outlook that much. We've just brought the revenue outlook to be a bit below the range we gave you earlier. And then I would just say it's a little bit of slowness everywhere about the rate at which customers are ramping up on specialty and some of the rPET purchases.

    我會說大概各占一半。所以在 rPET 端確實有一些生產上的限制。我們並沒有大幅改變展望。我們只是把營收展望調整到略低於先前給你的區間。另外我會說,各方面都稍微慢了一點,包含客戶在特用端的爬坡速度,以及部分 rPET 的採購節奏。

  • I mean, the economy's incredibly weak right now. We're not seeing anyone back away from their commitments to recycled content and seeing the value of it. All of our brands, as you guys know from earnings calls, are struggling out there. Whether it's on the consumer durable side or on the consumer packaging side, the economy's tough. People are very focused on managing costs, so they're being extremely disciplined on what premiums they pay.

    我的意思是,現在整體經濟非常疲弱。我們沒有看到任何人撤回他們對再生含量(recycled content)的承諾,也沒有看到他們否定其價值。如同你們從法說中所知,我們所有的品牌客戶目前都在外部環境中苦戰。不論是耐久消費品端或消費性包裝端,經濟都很艱難。大家都非常專注在成本管理,因此對於願意支付的溢價(premium)非常自律、極為謹慎。

  • And I find it incredibly encouraging that we've held onto our specialty customers who are paying premiums in this marketplace, and that we're still growing it. I feel very good that we see a ramp-up in rPET in this kind of market context, which says people really see the value and the need of it because we have a superior product and quality and clarity. And that's incredibly important for durables always, but also important for these consumer packaged goods companies.

    我覺得非常令人振奮的是,我們在這個市場中仍然留住了那些願意支付溢價的專業客戶,而且我們還在持續成長。在這樣的市場背景下,我們看到 rPET 的需求加速提升,這讓我感覺非常好;這說明人們確實看到了它的價值與必要性,因為我們的產品在品質與透明度方面更具優勢。這對耐久財一向非常重要,但對這些消費性包裝商品公司同樣重要。

  • So we're very encouraged about the confirmation of our value proposition, and we're all just stuck in a weak economy waiting to find ways to keep growing.

    因此,我們對於我們價值主張獲得驗證感到非常鼓舞,而我們大家也都被困在疲弱的經濟環境中,等待找到能持續成長的方法。

  • Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Equity Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的 David Begleiter。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Good morning. Mark, just on Additives & Functional Products, very resilient margins in the face of really challenging end markets. Can you talk to what's underpinning those resilient margins and maybe views in the back half of the year for those margins?

    早安。Mark,關於添加劑與功能性產品(Additives & Functional Products),在終端市場非常具挑戰的情況下,你們的利潤率仍然相當有韌性。你能談談支撐這些韌性利潤率的因素,以及對今年下半年這些利潤率的看法嗎?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Yeah. So Advanced -- Additives & Functional Products has been a phenomenal success story for us. It's a tribute to a phenomenal team, a great set of products and markets, and just great execution every day. So the benefit that Additives & Functional Products has versus AM is the stable markets that we serve are two-thirds of our revenue. So with stability, it becomes much calmer behavior by everyone involved.

    當然。是的。先進——添加劑與功能性產品對我們而言一直是個非常成功的故事。這要歸功於一支卓越的團隊、一組很棒的產品與市場,以及每天都能出色執行。添加劑與功能性產品相較於 AM 的優勢在於:我們所服務的穩定型市場占了我們營收的三分之二。因此在穩定性之下,所有相關方的行為都會平和得多。

  • And so in that sense, whether it's in pharma, whether it's in water treatment, ag, personal care, these series of very stable markets, aviation, we've got great industry structures. We've got very strong competitive positions. And a lot of cost pass-through contracts associated with some of these businesses that give you a lot of margin stability. So the CPTs will fluctuate quarter to quarter on headwinds and tailwinds to some degree.

    因此,無論是在製藥、無論是在水處理、農業、個人護理,這一系列非常穩定的市場,還有航空,我們都有很好的產業結構。我們具備非常強的競爭地位。而且其中一些業務有大量的成本轉嫁(cost pass-through)合約,能帶來很高的利潤率穩定性。因此,CPT 會在每季因逆風與順風而在一定程度上波動。

  • But on an annual basis, it provides a lot of margin stability. So you've got these businesses that have solid moderate growth. You've got great industry structures in the products we have in this business and their stability. CPT is adding to that margin stability on top of it. And where we don't have CPTs, teams have done very good work in raising prices consistent with raws and materials as well in this environment as we went into Q2 and holding those margins in the back half of the year.

    但以年度來看,它能提供很大的利潤率穩定性。所以你擁有的是一些具備穩健、溫和成長的業務。在這項業務中的產品及其穩定性方面,我們有很好的產業結構。CPT 在此基礎上進一步增強了利潤率的穩定性。而在沒有 CPT 的地方,團隊在進入第二季時,也在這樣的環境下做得很好,能依原物料與材料成本上升而調漲價格,並在下半年維持住那些利潤率。

  • So it's just been a great, solid business.

    所以這一直是一個很棒、很扎實的業務。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Very good. And just on Kingsport methanolysis, do you have an early view on revenue growth in 2027 from that plant and product line.

    非常好。另外關於 Kingsport 甲醇解(methanolysis),你們是否已對 2027 年該工廠與產品線帶來的營收成長有初步看法?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I'm not going to give you a specific number, Josh -- David, sorry. But what I would say is, we're building up revenue momentum through the year. So Q4 will be the strongest revenue quarter. When you think about that $100 million this year, of course, that was then annualized into next year, and then we will build on it. And I would expect the same kind of build next year on the specialty side of the revenue as we continue to win business in this environment.

    嗯,我不會給你一個具體數字,Josh——David,抱歉。但我想說的是,我們正在逐季累積營收動能。因此第四季會是營收最強的一季。當你想到今年的 1 億美元時,當然,明年會把它年化,然後我們會在此基礎上再成長。而且我預期明年在專業品(specialty)營收端也會有類似的增長,因為我們在這樣的環境下持續贏得業務。

  • And the PET side, I think, is well positioned for strong growth next year, but we need to see how that all plays out as we go through the back half of the year. But I would expect it's another strong performance next year on top of this year.

    至於 PET 端,我認為明年很有條件實現強勁成長,但我們需要看看在下半年推進時整體會如何發展。不過我預期明年會在今年的基礎上再交出另一個強勁表現。

  • David Begleiter - Analyst

    David Begleiter - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Frank Mitch, Fermium Research LLC.

    Fermium Research LLC 的 Frank Mitch。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • Good morning. Mark, one of the more impressive things about the quarter is what you've done on price costs in the specialties businesses. I mean, typically, we think of those as being priced for value and use and so forth, but obviously this is a somewhat unusual environment. Can you talk about what's been going on on the cost side in the specialties business and how you're able to get price ahead of that?

    早安。Mark,本季最令人印象深刻的一點,是你們在專業品業務的價格與成本方面所做的工作。我的意思是,通常我們會認為這些產品是以價值、用途等來定價,但顯然這是一個有些不尋常的環境。你能談談專業品業務在成本端發生了什麼,以及你們如何能讓價格漲幅領先於成本嗎?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Frank, thanks for the question. And I think one of the strengths Eastman's had for a very long time is our discipline around price cost management. I think we've done an excellent job through the years, whether it was catching up to raw material increases in 2021 or maintaining great price discipline when markets are softening and holding onto value in those contexts.

    Frank,謝謝你的問題。我認為 Eastman 長期以來的一項優勢,就是我們在價格—成本管理上的紀律。我覺得多年來我們做得非常好,無論是在 2021 年追上原物料上漲,或是在市場走弱時仍維持良好的定價紀律,並在那樣的情境下守住價值。

  • I'm incredibly proud of our teams and how they did it. And as always, once the war started, they moved immediately into action, into taking the price increases necessary across the markets in both of the specialty businesses.

    我對我們的團隊以及他們如何做到這一點感到非常自豪。而且一如既往,戰爭一開始,他們就立刻採取行動,在兩個專業品業務的各個市場中推動必要的漲價。

  • What I'd say is that we succeeded in getting the prices in. We weren't greedy. We just put in price increases to cover our raw material and energy and distribution costs, because we want to be fair and reasonable to our customers, and we're not going to sort of eat those costs, but we're also not going to try and take advantage of them. A lot of other companies, I think, get aggressive in these times.

    我要說的是,我們成功把價格調整落實了。我們並不貪婪。我們只是進行必要的漲價,以覆蓋我們的原物料、能源與配送成本,因為我們希望對客戶公平合理;我們不會去吞下那些成本,但也不會試圖藉此占便宜。我認為很多其他公司在這種時候會變得更激進。

  • We had some feedback where we were being disciplined in how we did that, gives us a lot more credibility and durability in those price increases, not just in getting them increased, but into holding onto them. The business is centered around driving value through volume growth and mix uplift in our innovation. And -- but we do a very good job of keeping our variable margin per kg pretty consistent and attractive. In fact, through all this chaos, that's been relatively stable since 2019 to now.

    我們收到一些回饋,認為我們在執行方式上很有紀律,這讓我們在這些漲價上更具可信度與持久性——不僅是把價格調上去,也包括把它守住。我們的業務核心在於透過創新帶動銷量成長與產品組合提升來創造價值。而且——我們也非常擅長讓每公斤的變動毛利維持相當一致且具吸引力。事實上,在這一連串混亂之中,從 2019 年到現在,這項指標相對穩定。

  • And it's a testament just to the quality of the products and the innovation that we have in the marketplace. You can only do that if the value of your products are meaningful to your customers. And so when we can increase prices like this, it's a good proof point around these are specialty products that have value, that customers will pay a higher price because they need them, because of what we do in their products and how we create value for them.

    這也證明了我們在市場上的產品品質與創新能力。只有當你的產品價值對客戶而言確實有意義時,你才做得到。因此,當我們能像這樣提高價格時,這是一個很好的佐證:這些是具有價值的專業產品,客戶願意支付更高的價格,因為他們需要它們,因為我們的產品在他們的產品中所扮演的角色,以及我們如何為他們創造價值。

  • And so I think that's a great way to test your portfolio, and I think we are passing that test really well in Advanced Materials and AFP.

    因此,我認為這是一個檢驗你產品組合的好方法,而我認為我們在先進材料(Advanced Materials)與 AFP 方面,確實很好地通過了這個考驗。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • So certainly, loss have been fairly volatile and every time there's a peace proclamation, you tend to see it go down, and then it reverses the other way. Can you talk about the sustainability of that price cost into the third quarter? Or probably said another way, how'd you compare your July margins with the second-quarter average? If you could offer us that.

    所以當然,損失一直相當波動,而且每次有和平宣告時,你往往會看到它下降,然後又往相反方向反轉。你能談談第三季價格—成本(price-cost)能否持續嗎?或者換個說法,你如何比較你們 7 月的利潤率與第二季平均水準?如果你能提供這方面的資訊。

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. And Frank, you're asking about the specialties just to clarify.

    當然可以。Frank,你問的是專業品(specialties)這一塊,對吧?我先確認一下。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • Yes. That's exactly the specialties, yes.

    是的。沒錯,這正是特用產品的情況,是的。

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Chemical Intermediates is a very different conversation. So on the specialties, our intention is to keep the prices in place. The raw material costs and energy costs, as well as distribution costs, are still flowing through. And so we would maintain good price discipline in these businesses as those higher costs flow through.

    化學中間體則是完全不同的討論。因此在特用產品方面,我們的意圖是維持既有價格水準。原物料成本與能源成本,以及配銷成本,仍在持續傳導。因此,隨著這些較高成本持續傳導,我們會在這些業務上維持良好的價格紀律。

  • So what will happen is prices will hold. The raw material costs are probably a little bit less than they were in March at this point, obviously, if you go look at things like paraxylene. But we still have a lot of flow-through. But on a year -- on a first-half, second-half basis, the price discipline we have in July and expect to continue as we go forward will give us a tailwind on price cost in the second half relative to the first half.

    所以接下來會發生的是,價格將會持穩。原物料成本目前可能比3月時略低一些,這點很明顯,例如你去看對二甲苯(paraxylene)之類的項目。但我們仍有大量的成本傳導在進行。不過以年度——以上半年、下半年的角度來看,我們在7月所展現並預期未來持續的價格紀律,將使得下半年相較上半年在「價格相對成本」上形成順風。

  • Frank Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank Mitsch - Analyst

  • Terrific. That's what I was looking for. Thank you.

    太好了。這正是我想了解的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

    Jeff Zekauskas,摩根大通。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Mark, over time, Eastman has really been focused on investing in methanolysis in Kingsport, Texas, and Europe. And those plans have altered, in part because of what customers want, what the government wants, what capital costs are like. And so when you look at the trajectory of your capital expenditures, your R&D, your investments, I would imagine that those have really shifted because of the delays or obstacles that have been put in place that have inhibited investment in methanolysis over a longer period of time.

    Mark,長期以來,伊士曼一直專注於在金斯波特、德州以及歐洲投資甲醇解(methanolysis)。而這些計畫有所調整,部分原因是客戶需求、政府期待,以及資本成本的變化。因此當你看你們資本支出、研發、投資的軌跡時,我想這些確實因為延宕或障礙——也就是長期抑制甲醇解投資的因素——而出現了很大的轉移。

  • So maybe if you could sort of briefly talk about the redirection of Eastman over a longer period of time. (multiple speakers)

    所以也許你可以簡要談談,伊士曼在較長期間內的重新導向。(多位講者)

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. So I actually wouldn't support your characterization. So the way we look at it is, I think, considerably different. Methanolysis, I think has been a great platform and a great investment. We see a lot of long-term potential through the platform. Without a doubt, when you start a platform like this in a very strong economy, like we had in '21 and the beginning of '22, and then you get to a much weaker economy, it's easy to sort of look back and sort of review, did we make the right set of choices?

    是的。所以我其實不認同你的描述。我們看待這件事的方式,我認為相當不同。我認為甲醇解一直是一個很棒的平台與很好的投資。我們看到這個平台具有大量的長期潛力。毫無疑問,當你在非常強勁的經濟環境下啟動這樣的平台——像我們在2021年以及2022年初那樣——接著又進入更疲弱的經濟時期,就很容易回頭檢視:我們當初是否做了正確的選擇?

  • At the same time, you can't just sit here and look at the world you live in at this moment. You also have to look at the future. And I think we believe that at some point, the economy will be healthy again. And in that context, where there's some health in the economy and everyone's not just focused on cost reduction, we'll see pretty significant acceleration in demand for Renew products when it comes to the revenue side of this question.

    同時,你也不能只坐在這裡看你此刻所處的世界。你也必須看向未來。而我們相信,經濟在某個時間點會再次回到健康狀態。在那樣的情境下——當經濟有一定的健康度、大家不再只專注於降成本——就本題的營收面而言,我們會看到 Renew 產品需求相當顯著的加速。

  • Both recovery in the consumer durable market will naturally give a huge lift to Renew. As well as, like I said earlier, we're not seeing anyone back off on the value of recycled content. I mean, the plastic waste as an issue in the world is not going away. And it's not a bipartisan issue for the Democrats versus Republicans. Everyone hates plastic waste. No one likes it. No one wants it in the environment. People are worried about its impact on their health.

    消費性耐久財市場的復甦,自然會為 Renew 帶來巨大的提振。此外,正如我先前所說,我們沒有看到任何人對再生含量的價值有所退卻。我的意思是,塑膠廢棄物作為全球議題不會消失。而且這也不是民主黨對共和黨的兩黨對立議題。每個人都討厭塑膠廢棄物。沒有人喜歡它。沒有人希望它出現在環境中。人們擔心它對健康的影響。

  • This issue is not at all going away, and every brand knows it. They're just trying to figure out how they manage taking responsibility for the polymers that they put in their products relative to cost management here in the short term. So our confidence in revenue here, both on the specialty side and on the rPET side, is great. Even greater on the rPET side, because we're proving that we have superior quality and clarity to mechanical every day in a pretty significant way that's being recognized in the marketplace.

    這個議題完全不會消失,每個品牌都知道。他們只是試著在短期成本管理的前提下,找出如何對其產品中所使用的聚合物承擔責任。因此,我們對這裡的營收信心——不論是特用產品端或 rPET 端——都很強。在 rPET 端甚至更強,因為我們正在證明:相較於機械回收,我們在品質與透明度上具有明顯優勢,而且市場也正在認可。

  • So actually, my point of view about the value proposition on the rPET side is much stronger today than it was a year ago and what we're seeing in our relative value recognition in the marketplace. I mean, think about how much rPET increases are going on this year with our key customers in this market context. So revenue-wise, we feel good. It's frustrating to be in this current economy for everything in the chemical industry, but it doesn't question the value proposition of why we got into this.

    所以其實,就 rPET 端的價值主張而言,我今天的看法比一年前更為強烈,因為我們看到市場對我們相對價值的認可正在提升。我的意思是,想想在目前這樣的市場環境下,我們的主要客戶今年仍在進行多少 rPET 的增量。因此就營收而言,我們感覺良好。在當前的經濟環境下,對整個化工產業而言都令人沮喪,但這並不會讓人質疑我們為何要投入這件事的價值主張。

  • And then when it comes to the capital side of the equation -- first of all, on the technical side of the equation, the plant's running phenomenally well. So we've got a technology running that no one else on the planet can do as well as we can. I mean, with our yields above 90%, with the operations running reliably now, with our ability to see that we can debottleneck the plant by 30%, to get more volume out of this plant and improve ROIC, it says that we have an operational and technical advantage to anyone in this world.

    接著談到資本面的等式——首先在技術面,工廠運轉得非常出色。所以我們掌握了一項技術,其運行水準是全球沒有其他人能像我們一樣做到的。我的意思是,我們的收率超過90%,營運如今也可靠穩定,並且我們看得到可以將工廠去瓶頸提升30%,以提高產量並改善 ROIC(投入資本報酬率);這顯示我們在營運與技術上相較全球任何競爭者都具備優勢。

  • And then on the capital efficient side, without a doubt, capital costs have gone up a lot. That's what we were sort of facing as we looked at the project in Texas. And we -- with the loss of DOE grant and us having to rethink how to approach the marketplace, we started developing a much more capital efficient option about how to go forward. And we're getting close to talking to all of you about how that looks like in specifics, but we're not quite there yet.

    然後在資本效率方面,毫無疑問,資本成本已大幅上升。這正是我們在評估德州專案時所面臨的情況。而且——隨著 DOE(美國能源部)補助的取消,以及我們必須重新思考如何切入市場——我們開始開發一個資本效率更高的推進方案。我們已接近可以和各位談這個方案的具體樣貌,但目前還不到那一步。

  • But we feel like we have a great path forward on a much more capital efficient option in doing this. And because we can debottleneck Kingsport, it allows us to push out the need to spend that next chunk of capital until '28 so that we have time for the market to recover and align with that investment.

    但我們認為,以更高資本效率的選項來推進這件事,我們有一條很好的前進路徑。而且因為我們可以對金斯波特進行去瓶頸,這讓我們可以把下一筆資本支出的需求延後到2028年,讓市場有時間復甦並與該投資相匹配。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Thanks for that. And for Willie, receivables, I think, for the first six months have been a use of cash of $370 million. Why is there a ballooning of receivables? What might be the penalty this year? And how much of that can you get back next year?

    謝謝你的說明。另外想請教 Willie,應收帳款在前六個月我認為是使用了3.70億美元的現金。為什麼應收帳款會膨脹?今年可能的代價會是什麼?其中有多少可以在明年收回?

  • William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Jeff, for the question. Yes, I think as Mark has already highlighted, our commercial teams have done a tremendous job on both managing price and price cost as well as the volume. Our revenue is expected to be $500 million higher due to the pricing actions that we're taking this year. And ultimately, we're focused on delivering earnings and solid cash, strong cash flows in any environment.

    謝謝你,Jeff,這個問題。是的,我想 Mark 已經提到,我們的商務團隊在價格管理與「價格相對成本」管理,以及銷量方面,都做得非常出色。由於我們今年採取的定價行動,預期營收將增加5億美元。而最終,我們專注於在任何環境下都能交付獲利與穩健現金、強勁的現金流。

  • So as we look at it, and as we highlighted when we talked in Q1, we expected the pathways to be narrowing. Actually on an overall working capital, we actually consumed a little less here in the first half than we did last year. You've heard us being disciplined on inventory, as Mark also highlighted.

    因此我們在檢視時——也如同我們在第一季討論時所強調——我們原本預期這些路徑會逐步收斂。實際上,就整體營運資金而言,我們在上半年消耗的金額反而比去年同期略少。你也聽到我們在庫存方面保持紀律,正如 Mark 也提到的。

  • But as we look at that, and having a stronger back half, we actually will not get as much working capital back this year as we did last year. So that's where you're seeing around, call it roughly $75 million reduction on a year-over-year basis in our, I'll call it multiple scenarios that we're looking at. So going from $970 million to approaching the $900 million, and we feel confident that we can do that.

    但當我們看這件事時,由於下半年表現更強,我們今年實際上不會像去年那樣回收那麼多營運資金。所以你看到的就是我們在所謂正在評估的多種情境中,年對年大約減少了約7,500萬美元。也就是從9.7億美元降到接近9億美元,而我們有信心可以做到。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的Vincent Andrews。

  • Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. Mark, some moving parts in both in Fibers in both tow and textiles for the back half of the year. I wonder if you could just unpack those a little bit and help us understand how much of that we need to follow through into 2027?

    早安。Mark,今年下半年在纖維業務中,無論是絲束(tow)還是紡織都有一些變動因素。想請你把這些稍微拆解說明一下,並幫我們理解其中有多少需要延續追蹤到2027年?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. So when it comes to the back half of the year for Fibers, there's -- as we've talked about, I think extensively on the tow side, we have these annual contracts with customers, they have the right to vary what they buy quarter to quarter. And so we -- They're not that good at ratability.

    當然。談到纖維業務的下半年,正如我們在絲束端已經相當深入討論過的,我們與客戶有年度合約,客戶有權在每一季調整他們的採購量。所以我們——他們在採購均衡性(ratability)方面並不是那麼理想。

  • So we had in the front half customers on the tow side not buying that much. But now to hit their minimums, they're going to step up their purchases in the back half of the year to hit what we consider sort of the low end of the volume bands that they have in their annual contract. So that's what's happening on that front. There, of course, is a little bit of risk around the Middle East.

    因此在上半年,絲束端的客戶買得不多。但為了達到他們的最低採購量,他們會在下半年提高採購,以達到我們所認為其年度合約中、各個量級區間(volume bands)的低端水準。這就是那一端正在發生的事。當然,中東局勢也帶來一些風險。

  • That was an area that we -- our customers thought they were going to grow last year, didn't have that much success as we explained. They thought they were going to grow this year, not having as much success with all the Mid East disruption. Highly determined to keep growing and do what it takes. So there's a little variability on that front. But I would say the tow volumes on an annual basis will turn out by the time we're done to be sort of relatively stable to last year.

    那是我們——我們的客戶原本以為去年會成長的區域,但如我們所說,他們並沒有那麼成功。他們以為今年會成長,但在中東各種干擾之下,也沒有那麼成功。他們非常堅定要持續成長,並會採取必要措施。所以在那方面會有一些波動性。但我會說,絲束的年度總量在我們做完全年之後,應該會與去年大致相對穩定。

  • But that is a meaningful increase in tow purchase in the back half of the year, which we'll see a benefit of. On the textile side, it's a bit of the same thing. We thought that this year would be recovering from a very difficult year last year. We told you that we had about a $30 million headwind last year relative to '24 with the drop in the textile business, which was a combination of a weak market, made even weaker by tariffs, impacting demand and our price point going into China.

    不過,下半年絲束採購量確實會有一個顯著的增加,我們也會因此受益。在紡織端,情況有點類似。我們原本以為今年會從去年非常艱難的一年中復甦。我們曾告訴各位,去年相較於2024年,因紡織業務下滑帶來約3,000萬美元的不利因素(headwind),這是疲弱市場的結果,而關稅又讓市場更弱,影響需求以及我們進入中國市場時的價格定位。

  • And that created a lot of sort of headwind for us into '25. We had a bunch of actions we were taking to improve it this year, but they have not so far been successful because the market just continues to be weak. So the first half was pretty challenging. The volumes were relatively low and a very tough comp to last year because volumes in textiles were high in the first half of last year. And they really came off in the back half of last year with the tariffs.

    這使得我們在2025年面臨相當多的不利因素。我們今年採取了一系列改善措施,但到目前為止並未奏效,因為市場仍持續疲弱。所以上半年相當具挑戰性。量相對偏低,而且與去年相比的比較基期非常艱難,因為去年上半年紡織量很高。而去年下半年在關稅影響下,量大幅下滑。

  • So, tough comp to last year. But we are seeing some success and we believe we'll build volume growth back in the back half of the year, which really would just get us to be even with last year. We were thinking we were going to get a $15 million tailwind this year, it turns out to be pretty much nothing relative to last year.

    所以,與去年相比的比較基期很艱難。但我們確實看到一些進展,並相信下半年會逐步建立量的成長,實際上也只是讓我們回到與去年持平。我們原本以為今年會有1,500萬美元的有利因素(tailwind),結果相較去年幾乎等於沒有。

  • But it is good momentum on textiles into next year, in the winds that we're starting to sort of build on in the back half of this year. So that's a playout from this year on sort of what's going on there. Prices are not changing. They're pretty much consistent with what we thought from the beginning of the year. Energy costs are a headwind, so there's that spread compression there.

    不過,這確實為明年的紡織業務帶來良好動能,因為我們在今年下半年開始逐步建立的趨勢將延續。以上就是今年在那部分的發展脈絡。價格沒有變動。基本上與我們年初的預期一致。能源成本是不利因素,因此利差(spread)在那裡受到壓縮。

  • Utilizations are a headwind as we manage our inventory and capacity relative to sort of this demand environment this year. So those are all sort of factored into our point of view right now. When you get to next year, it's important to remember that a lot of this earnings decline from '24 to now is not actually tow, it's textiles, it's utilization hits about slow demand across the corporate stream that sort of flows into Fibers on the cellulosic stream, higher energy cost.

    在我們因應今年這樣的需求環境、管理庫存與產能時,產能利用率(utilization)也是不利因素。所以這些都已納入我們目前的觀點之中。談到明年,重要的是要記得,從2024年到現在的獲利下滑,實際上很多並不是絲束,而是紡織、以及因需求放緩導致整體公司鏈條的利用率受挫,這些影響沿著纖維的纖維素(cellulosic)鏈條傳導,再加上更高的能源成本。

  • What we do think is plausible as we look at next year is there's a set of actions that we can take that are in our control to try and sort of stabilize this business. The demand drop isn't market related. It's -- The market's declining 1% this year, in a range of a typical 1% to 2%. The drops in demand have been destocking, have been some share shifts that were principally in '25.

    我們在看明年時,認為合理可行的是:我們有一套在我們掌控範圍內可採取的行動,來嘗試讓這個業務趨於穩定。需求下滑並不是市場本身造成的。市場今年下滑1%,落在典型的1%到2%區間內。需求的下滑主要來自去庫存(destocking),以及一些市占轉移,而這些主要發生在2025年。

  • And as we look at where we are right now, we have, by far, the lowest cost position in this industry, in the tow business, in the cellulosic business, and it's a very integrated advantage cost structure at our Kingsport site. And something about this stream is that it needs to run really full to have a positive effect on economics and overall site stability.

    而以我們目前的位置來看,我們在這個產業、在絲束業務、在纖維素業務中,擁有迄今為止最低的成本優勢,而且在Kingsport廠區具備高度整合的成本結構優勢。而這條產線的一個特性是:它需要以非常高的滿載率運轉,才能對經濟性與整體廠區穩定性產生正面效果。

  • So we do see us recovering some of our market share that was sort of lost in balancing the stream in that sense. We have all these growth programs that start kicking in. So it's recovering textiles, I just mentioned. There's things like Aventa that are moving slowly, but picking up momentum. There'll be some additional volume for next year.

    因此,我們確實看到我們會收復一部分在平衡這條產線時所流失的市占。我們也有各種成長計畫開始逐步發力。例如我剛提到的紡織復甦。還有像Aventa這類進展較慢、但動能正在提升的項目。明年也會帶來一些額外的量。

  • There's some other programs we're working on that we can't really talk about right now that could be quite material to the stream. So there's a lot going on right now on actions that we're taking to make sure that the business is as stable as possible next year relative to this year.

    另外我們還在推進一些目前不便透露的其他計畫,對這條產線可能會相當具規模影響。所以目前有很多事情正在進行中,我們採取的行動是為了確保明年的業務相較今年能盡可能穩定。

  • Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks for that. If I could just ask you, I think in AFP, maybe a little more so than the other segments, but there's been some share gains that have come on account of maybe some competitor dislocation, given the Middle East situation. What's your assumption in terms of the durability of those gains, whether it's for the back half of the year or into next?

    了解。謝謝你的說明。如果我可以再問一個問題,我想在AFP這個部門,可能比其他部門更明顯一些,因為中東情勢導致某些競爭對手供應受擾,你們因此取得了一些市占提升。你們對這些增量的持久性假設是什麼?不論是今年下半年,或延伸到明年?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I just want to clarify your question. Were you asking a volume question or a spread question?

    我想先釐清一下你的問題。你問的是量的問題,還是利差(spread)問題?

  • Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

  • Volume question in terms of market share. You had some volume share gains. I think some competitors maybe didn't have the ability to produce to the same extent. And so you've picked up a little bit of share that way. I guess, is that correct? And then if so, what's your assumption on the durability of that?

    是量的問題,關於市占。你們的量與市占有一些提升。我想有些競爭對手可能沒有能力以同樣程度生產。所以你們因此多拿到了一點市占。我猜這樣理解是對的嗎?如果是的話,你們對其持久性的假設是什麼?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. So in Chemical Intermediates, I think our assumption where we've had some share gains is that it'll be relatively durable volume gains in the back half of the year. I mean, not gains, but we'll hold onto it in the back half of the year. There may be a few places where in our export markets we see some change of positions in where we're selling our material, but our volumes overall will hold up.

    當然。所以在化學中間體方面,我認為我們的假設是,我們先前取得的一些市占提升,將會在下半年以相對可持續的銷量增長形式延續。我的意思是,不是繼續增加,而是我們會在下半年把它守住。在我們的出口市場中,可能有少數地方會看到我們銷售材料的布局出現一些調整,但整體而言,我們的出貨量將能維持。

  • It's just a question of spread. So obviously there's a question around just how the back half of the year may moderate in spreads in Chemical Intermediates relative to the first half with all the dynamics going on, and it's anyone's guess at this point. It's truly a box of chocolates out there where every day it's a different story. And we could see things soften or we frankly could see things stay tight depending on what happens, especially in the next couple of weeks.

    這主要只是價差的問題。所以很明顯,問題在於在各種動態因素影響下,化學中間體下半年的價差相較上半年會在多大程度上趨於溫和,現階段誰也說不準。外部情勢真的像一盒巧克力,每天都是不同的故事。而我們可能會看到走弱,或者坦白說也可能會維持緊俏,取決於接下來會發生什麼,尤其是未來幾週。

  • When it comes to the specialty side of the question, we expect to hold our market shares. We didn't see any market share losses in the first half of the year as we increased prices. We're not expecting any market share losses in the back half of the year with how we're managing our positions in our markets. And that's being disciplined and holding our price relatively well in that context. The places where we picked up share on the specialty side is pretty modest in Q2.

    至於問題中提到的特用化學品部分,我們預期會維持市占。在上半年我們調漲價格時,並沒有看到任何市占流失。以我們目前在各市場的布局管理方式來看,我們也不預期下半年會有任何市占流失。這代表我們保持紀律,在這樣的背景下相對良好地守住價格。我們在特用化學品端於第二季所增加的市占其實相當有限。

  • When we look at where we thought we could get a lot of share from companies being disrupted, that hasn't played out that much yet. Companies are really holding out and using whatever inventory they have to try and hope for lower prices in the future, both on the commodity and the specialty side. That's a big part of why markets on the commodity side are weakened, is everyone's leaning on inventory.

    當我們回頭看原本以為可以從受干擾的公司那裡取得大量市占的部分,目前還沒有太多實現。不論在大宗或特用端,企業都在撐著,利用手上現有的庫存,試圖等待未來更低的價格。這也是為什麼大宗市場走弱的一大原因:大家都在靠庫存撐著。

  • China's dumping inventory that they've built up over the last two years. Customers are using inventory to hold out for better market conditions. At some point, all that inventory is going to run out. And if it hasn't been replaced by a lot of stability in the world, in the Mid East in particular, things could get pretty tight here in the back half of the year.

    中國正在出清過去兩年累積的庫存。客戶也在使用庫存,撐著等待更好的市場條件。在某個時間點,這些庫存終究會用完。而如果屆時全球、尤其是中東地區,仍未恢復足夠的穩定性,那麼下半年這裡的供需可能會變得相當緊俏。

  • So there's a wide spectrum of how this may play out. But right now, I'd say the teams are doing a phenomenal job of holding share, phenomenal job, great job of holding price. We're not, in the specialty side, picking up a lot of market share yet.

    所以這件事可能的發展範圍很廣。但就目前而言,我會說團隊在守住市占方面做得非常出色,非常出色,也在守住價格方面做得很棒。在特用端,我們目前還沒有拿到很多新增市占。

  • Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

    Vincent Andrews - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Abigail Eberts, Wells Fargo.

    Abigail Eberts,富國銀行。

  • Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst

    Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst

  • Just a quick question on your cost reduction targets of $125 million to $150 million. Can you just remind us how we should be thinking about that weighted across your segments?

    關於你們1.25億到1.5億美元的降本目標,我有個簡短問題。可以提醒我們應該如何看待這個目標在各事業部之間的權重分配嗎?

  • William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks for the question, Abigail. The Eastman team has done a tremendous job delivering on $125 million to $150 million net of inflation. I would also say I'm confident with what we've delivered here in the first half and actions implemented, that we will deliver the second half, and also shift our focus into 2027, and focused on, at a minimum, offsetting the inflation.

    謝謝你的提問,Abigail。伊士曼團隊在扣除通膨影響後,成功交付1.25億到1.5億美元的成果,表現非常出色。我也想說,基於我們上半年已交付的成果以及已落地的措施,我有信心我們下半年也會達成,並且把重點延伸到2027年,至少以抵銷通膨為目標。

  • As we think about the split across the businesses, I would highlight Advanced Materials, as well as Chemical Intermediates as being the two largest benefactors and to a lesser extent, Fibers and Additives & Functional Products.

    在思考各業務之間的分配時,我會特別指出先進材料以及化學中間體是受益最大的兩個部門;其次是纖維,以及添加劑與功能性產品,受益程度相對較小。

  • Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst

    Abigail Eberts - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    了解。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Roberts, Mizuho.

    John Roberts,瑞穗。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Lots of new product discussion in the prepared remarks. Could you back it up to an overall company level, where are you on your innovation index, new products as a percent of sales, however you want to define it?

    在事先準備的講稿裡談了很多新產品。能否拉回到公司整體層級:你們的創新指標目前到哪個程度?例如新產品占銷售額的比例,或你們想用的任何定義方式。

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So first of all, good morning, John. It's good to talk to you. We're incredibly proud of our innovation growth model. And at times like this when markets are weak, I think we've proven we can create growth above underlying markets across the portfolio. And in particular, in the Advanced Materials segment where we've made the most investments.

    首先,早安,John。很高興和你交流。我們對自身的創新成長模式感到非常自豪。而在像現在這樣市場疲弱的時候,我認為我們已經證明,能在整個產品組合中創造高於基礎市場的成長。尤其是在我們投入最多資源的先進材料事業部。

  • So overall, we see, as you've noted, great growth in Tritan. We're picking up new growth in Tritan because Europe's put a ban on BPA that's driving more conversion into our product, which is great. We launched a new cosmetic product that's a recycle code one, and that's a big deal for the cosmetic industry. So we're seeing great growth there, including Renew content being in it.

    整體來看,如你所提到的,我們看到Tritan有很好的成長。我們在Tritan上取得新的成長動能,因為歐洲對BPA實施禁令,推動更多轉換到我們的產品,這非常好。我們推出了一款新的化妝品用產品,回收代碼為1,這對化妝品產業是件大事。因此我們看到那邊有很好的成長,其中也包含Renew含量。

  • You've got the HUD growth. You've got this new performance film strategy we just talked about in China that's given us significant broad addressable market growth that's been incredibly helpful. So there's a lot of things going on there, and AFP is not as significant, but still meaningful when it's ultra-high purity solvents for semiconductors, which is growing very high rates right now with the market at good margins.

    你還有HUD的成長。以及我們剛才談到在中國的新性能薄膜策略,這讓我們可觸及的市場規模顯著擴大,帶來非常大的幫助。所以那邊有很多事情在發生;而AFP雖然占比沒那麼大,但在半導體用超高純度溶劑方面仍然很重要,該市場目前以很高的速度成長,且毛利良好。

  • You've got aviation continuing to roll, and we've got some new products coming out soon that are a big deal for the industry. Solus cellulosics for biodegradable polymer coatings on paper for cups and packaging and things like that. So there's a lot going on. We don't really provide a revenue percent of innovation as a public statistic, but it's roughly in the sort of mid-teen to 20% range when you look at it in the specialty world.

    航空業務也持續推進,而且我們很快會推出一些對產業而言很重要的新產品。另外還有Solus纖維素,用於紙杯、包裝等的可生物分解聚合物塗層。所以有很多事情在進行中。我們並未將「創新帶來的營收占比」作為公開統計數據披露,但若以特用化學品領域來看,大致落在十幾到20%左右的區間。

  • So we feel very good about the innovation curve that we're on. And we have a lot of metrics in which we measure it. It's just we don't make those all public.

    因此我們對目前所處的創新曲線感到非常有信心。而且我們有很多衡量它的指標。只是我們不會把那些全部公開。

  • John Roberts - Analyst

    John Roberts - Analyst

  • Okay. And then the Kingsport coal gasifier has been a pretty valuable asset here in this high oil price environment. When is the next major plan maintenance downtime for that unit?

    好的。另外,Kingsport的煤氣化裝置在這種高油價環境下是一項相當有價值的資產。那個單元下一次主要的計畫性維修停機會在什麼時候?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We just did it. So we had a massive shutdown of that stream in Q2, which was a big headwind from Q1 to Q2 for Fibers as well as Chemical Intermediates in that sequential result. And what I'd say is it was a very large cost, so it will not repeat next year. So there'll be a tailwind next year relative to this year with that significant shutdown helping the whole cellulose stream.

    我們剛做完。所以我們在第二季對那條產線進行了大規模停機,這也是纖維以及化學中間體在從第一季到第二季的環比表現上出現明顯逆風的重要原因。我想說的是,那次成本非常高,因此明年不會再重演。所以相較今年,明年會形成順風,因為那次重大停機維修對整個纖維素產線都有所助益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

    Matthew DeYoe,美國銀行。

  • Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

    Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. I have two, but I'll start with like -- can you just bridge us a bit on some of this shift from 2Q to 3Q with all these outages and then like strategic inventory management decisions, I guess, I'll call it that. And in general, it seems like you're able to destock your raw mats. And then conceptually, it seems like you're restocking at levels in 3Q that doesn't net penalize you versus the gains from better utilization rates.

    各位早安。我有兩個問題,但我先從這個開始——你們能否幫我們稍微串一下,從第二季到第三季之間,這些停機事件以及我姑且稱之為策略性庫存管理決策所造成的變化?整體而言,看起來你們能夠去化原物料庫存。而從概念上看,你們在第三季以某些水位回補庫存,似乎不會在淨額上抵銷因更高稼動率所帶來的收益。

  • Is that right? And like how much outage headwind was there ultimately in 2Q?

    是這樣嗎?那麼最終在第二季(2Q)停機(outage)帶來的逆風大概有多少?

  • William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William McLain - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So Matt, thanks for the question. I think what Mark highlighted in the beginning, Advanced Materials is obviously we were making trade-offs with the timing of plants coming online, the Tritan facility that we highlighted, as well as the escalation of the impacts in the Middle East.

    Matt,謝謝你的提問。我想 Mark 一開始提到的,先進材料(Advanced Materials)這邊很明顯我們在工廠上線時點上做了一些取捨,包括我們提到的 Tritan 設施,以及中東局勢影響的加劇。

  • So what we -- Ultimately, we were able to bring down some finished goods inventory within our Advanced Materials business. That created a utilization headwind as we did that. And we did that to ultimately secure key feedstocks to enable us to deliver with confidence into the second half. Mark just highlighted that we had major turnarounds in Q2. As we think about from Q1 to Q2, that was around $40 million to $45 million headwind sequentially.

    所以我們——最終,我們在先進材料業務中得以降低部分成品庫存。在我們這麼做的同時,因而帶來了產能利用率(utilization)的逆風。而我們這麼做,最終是為了確保關鍵原料(feedstocks),讓我們能有把握地在下半年交付。Mark 剛才也提到我們在第二季有大型歲修(turnarounds)。從第一季到第二季來看,這在環比上大約帶來 4,000 萬到 4,500 萬美元的逆風。

  • Our original guidance was we expected to benefit about $30 million sequentially, but with the Advanced Materials pulling some turnarounds into Q3, we now expect that to be, I'll call it, closer to the $10 million to $20 million for the overall company. So those are the big shifts as you think about shutdowns and turnarounds.

    我們原先的指引是預期環比可受益約 3,000 萬美元,但由於先進材料把部分歲修延後到第三季(Q3),我們現在預期整體公司層面將更接近 1,000 萬到 2,000 萬美元。所以,當你從停機與歲修的角度來看,這些就是主要的變動。

  • I would also say on a year-over-year basis, we will have substantial utilization benefits in the second half compared to last year as we had inventory corrections in Advanced Materials and across the company in the back half of last year. And you've heard Mark today talk about the strong demand outlook that we see here in Q3. And we'll continue to update you on that. But I think the big drivers are the turnarounds that I just described sequentially.

    我也想補充,就年對年(year-over-year)而言,下半年我們的產能利用率效益將相當可觀,因為去年下半年先進材料以及全公司都在進行庫存修正(inventory corrections)。而你今天也聽到 Mark 談到我們在第三季看到的強勁需求展望。我們也會持續向各位更新。但我認為,主要驅動因素就是我剛才描述的那些環比歲修影響。

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Just when you want to locate it from a segment point of view, there's two different things that Willie described. There was the finished good impact on Advanced Materials. The cellulosic shutdown that we just talked about, that was very significant and actually a couple other smaller shutdowns, but the big impact there was in Fibers and in Chemical Intermediates. So it shows up in different places depending on which stock.

    對。如果你想從事業部(segment)的角度來定位,Willie 描述的是兩件不同的事。一個是先進材料的成品影響。我們剛談到的纖維素(cellulosic)停機,那個影響非常顯著,另外還有幾個較小的停機,但主要影響是在纖維(Fibers)以及化學中間體(Chemical Intermediates)。所以會依你看的是哪一塊而呈現在不同地方。

  • Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

    Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And I guess, can you talk a little bit about volumes through the quarter? Really, even just if you want to bridge March into this. Right? There's a lot of discussions around panic buying downstream, not how that might have ebbed and flowed into June. And obviously, when we talk to investors, there's just concerns around customer destock in 2H, given what's happened more recently over the last few years. So how do you get confidence around this 2H volume profile, and were things trending better as you exited 2Q?

    這很有幫助。那我想問一下,你們能否談談本季各月的出貨量(volumes)走勢?甚至如果你願意,也可以把三月到現在做個銜接。對吧?市場上有很多討論在下游的恐慌性採購(panic buying),以及這種情況到六月可能如何起伏變化。而且很明顯,當我們跟投資人溝通時,大家也擔心下半年(2H)客戶去庫存(destock),畢竟過去幾年最近發生的事情大家都記得。所以你們如何對下半年量的輪廓建立信心?以及在第二季末(2Q)退出時,趨勢是否更好?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So great question. And certainly, volumes trended well through the quarter in Q2. Almost like a normal way, which is it sort of built from April through June. And in that sense, things actually felt quite normal despite all the chaos that surrounded us and what was going on. It is a very fair question and one that we constantly are debating internally around demand, especially after last year where you saw that build to get ahead of tariffs and then the decline in volumes in the back half.

    這個問題問得很好。而且可以確定的是,第二季的出貨量在整個季度中走勢良好。幾乎就像正常情況一樣,也就是從四月到六月逐步走高。從這個角度看,儘管周遭充滿混亂、發生很多事情,但整體感覺其實相當正常。這確實是個很合理的問題,也是我們內部一直在辯論的需求議題,尤其是去年你看到為了趕在關稅前而提前拉貨,然後下半年量又下滑。

  • So far, we're not seeing that same dynamic. So July orders are holding up well and on track to what we would expect and consistent with what you'd expect relative to Q2. So that's a good sign. When it comes to a lot of the buying in CI, it's a more dynamic question, with whatever's going on with the Strait.

    到目前為止,我們沒有看到同樣的動態。所以七月的訂單維持得不錯,符合我們的預期,也與你相對於第二季所會期待的水準一致。這是一個好跡象。至於化學中間體(CI)方面的採購,這就更具動態性,會受到海峽(Strait)局勢的影響。

  • But when it comes to the specialties, which I think is really where your question is centered, we're not seeing any end market demand declines or customers talking to us about that as a main concern. The customers are balancing two things at the same time, which I think is different than last year. Right now, because of what happened last year, they're very disciplined through February of this year in destocking inventory and getting inventories to be really low.

    但就特用化學品(specialties)而言——我認為你的問題主要聚焦在這裡——我們沒有看到終端市場需求下滑,或客戶把這件事當作主要疑慮來跟我們討論。客戶同時在平衡兩件事,我認為這跟去年不同。目前,因為去年發生的事情,他們在今年二月之前都非常自律地去庫存,把庫存水位降得很低。

  • So when you got to March, obviously, there was concerns about access to raw materials, and so you saw some pickup in demand. But at the same time, worries and concerns around what could happen to the end market demand the back half of the year, I think, has kept a lot of discipline in everyone's mind about just how much inventory they want to build. And you can debate whether they're building inventory right now or using up inventory right now, hoping for lower prices.

    所以到了三月,顯然大家擔心原料取得,因此需求有一些回升。但同時,對於今年下半年終端市場需求可能發生什麼事的擔憂與顧慮,我認為也讓大家在「到底要建立多少庫存」這件事上保持高度自律。你也可以討論他們現在是在建立庫存,還是在消化庫存、期待更低價格。

  • So there's a lot of mixture going on that's very different than last year so far where they want to have inventory, but they also want to hold out for lower prices, maybe if the Strait normalizes and everything gets more stable. So you've got a lot of opposing forces where we don't think that people are sitting on significant inventories right now in this dynamic.

    所以目前有很多交錯因素,跟去年很不一樣:他們想要有庫存,但也想等更低的價格——也許如果海峽恢復正常、整體更穩定的話。因此有很多相互拉扯的力量,我們不認為在這種情況下,大家現在手上會有顯著的庫存。

  • And if they were going to really destock, it could have started, frankly, in June when people were really optimistic in May about the Strait opening. And we didn't see that happen in June. So I think things are better positioned to be more stable. The wild card here, of course, is if things really get out of control in the Middle East, oil prices go up dramatically, you can have a global impact on consumer demand. That's not in our forecast, that sort of extreme scenario.

    而且如果他們真的要大幅去庫存,坦白說,可能在六月就會開始,因為五月時大家對海峽開放非常樂觀。但我們沒有看到六月發生那種情況。所以我認為整體的定位更有利於維持穩定。當然,這裡的變數是:如果中東局勢真的失控,油價大幅上漲,就可能對全球消費需求造成影響。那種極端情境不在我們的預測之中。

  • Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

    Matthew DeYoe - Analyst

  • Thanks for that.

    謝謝你的說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McCarthy, VRP.

    Kevin McCarthy,VRP。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Thank you, and good morning. Mark, a question or two on your circular platform. I think you indicated in the prepared remarks that you expect sales to grow by $100 million or more this year. Can you comment on what a good contribution margin would be against that sales growth?

    謝謝,早安。Mark,我有一兩個關於你們循環平台(circular platform)的问题。我想你在事先準備的講稿中提到,你預期今年銷售額將成長 1 億美元或以上。你能否評論一下,針對這部分銷售成長,合理的貢獻毛利(contribution margin)會是多少?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We're not going to talk about contribution margins on this business. What I can tell you is the revenue growth is attractive. The margins are certainly above company average when you think about this business. So it's a value and a mix upgrade to the company and to AM when you think about variable margins.

    我們不會談這項業務的貢獻毛利。我能告訴你的是,營收成長很有吸引力。就這項業務而言,其利潤率確實高於公司平均水準。因此,從可變利潤(variable margins)的角度來看,這對公司以及對先進材料(AM)都是價值與組合(mix)的升級。

  • When I think about the business and its long-term EBITDA potential, we still very much feel we're on track for this first asset to get to $200 million EBITDA. We're not seeing any reasons why that's not going to happen. It's going to take longer than we'd like with the state of the current economy, but the value proposition, the contribution margins, we see as still very attractive.

    當我看這項業務及其長期 EBITDA 潛力時,我們仍然非常確信,我們正按計畫推進,讓第一個資產達到 2 億美元 EBITDA。我們沒有看到任何理由認為這不會發生。在目前經濟狀況下,達成時間會比我們希望的更久,但我們認為其價值主張與貢獻毛利仍然非常有吸引力。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe related to that, my general impression is that the engineering team has done a great job and, if anything, you've proven out the capacity to be higher than originally expected. Obviously, the demand has trended as previously discussed, but is there a way to give us a sense of what the capacity utilization is? And I'm thinking back to your deal with Pepsi as well. How much headroom do you have to kind of load that asset moving forward?

    了解。也許相關地,我的整體印象是工程團隊做得非常好,而且如果有什麼的話,你們已經證明產能可能比原先預期更高。顯然,需求走勢如先前所討論,但你們是否能讓我們了解一下目前的產能利用率大概是多少?我也想到你們和百事(Pepsi)的合作。往前看,你們在把那個資產加載(load)上去方面,還有多少餘裕(headroom)?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So I think with what we've shared with you last year is we were around 50% utilization on the asset, and we've stepped that utilization up with the improvement in demand this year. We've also run tests to run the plant as hard as possible to understand what we think the effective capacity of the plant is, and feeling very confident we can get up to 100% in running the plant to support demand growth as it comes.

    所以我認為,根據我們去年與各位分享的情況,我們當時該資產的利用率大約在 50%,而今年隨著需求改善,我們已將利用率提升。我們也進行測試,讓工廠以盡可能高的負荷運轉,以了解我們認為工廠的有效產能是多少;我們非常有信心,工廠運轉可提升至 100%,以在需求成長出現時支撐其成長。

  • And then of course, as we said, there are targeted incremental capital projects to do in the plant to debottleneck it up to 130% of design capacity or 130,000 tons. So in that sense, I think we feel really good about where we're at and continue to gain more insights about how to optimize the performance of the plant and its cost structure.

    然後當然,如同我們所說,工廠內有一些具針對性的增量資本專案,可用來消除瓶頸,將產能提升至設計產能的 130%,也就是 13 萬噸。因此在這個意義上,我認為我們對目前所處位置感到非常滿意,並持續獲得更多洞見,了解如何最佳化工廠的績效及其成本結構。

  • When it comes to polymer, that's where the constraint is on the rPET side, because this plant was originally built for specialties. And as the market sort of weakened on the growth in specialties, we obviously flexed our polymer lines, which is a great advantage we have, is this flexibility to flex them from Tritan to copolyester to PET.

    談到聚合物時,限制主要在 rPET 端,因為這座工廠最初是為特種產品而建。而隨著特種產品市場的成長趨勢有所走弱,我們顯然調整了聚合物產線;這正是我們的一大優勢,也就是具備從 Tritan 到共聚酯再到 PET 的彈性切換能力。

  • We took a Tritan line and flexed it to PET because we knew a new big line of Tritan was about to come on to serve the market that we were building. And that was a great way to balance it out. But there's still limits to what that PET capacity is. And so we're now looking at some other polymer lines that we can optimize to continue making rPET that have some additional capacity in this current market conditions.

    我們把一條 Tritan 產線調整為 PET,因為我們知道一條新的大型 Tritan 產線即將投產,以服務我們正在建立的市場。這是很好的方式來平衡供需。但 PET 產能仍然有其上限。因此,在目前的市場條件下,我們正在評估其他可最佳化的聚合物產線,以持續生產 rPET,並釋出一些額外產能。

  • And so that work is going on right now to enable us to keep growing the PET in a significant way next year. And then there's other things we're doing about our capital efficient model we'll talk about in future calls about how that can support more polymer growth.

    因此,這項工作目前正在進行中,使我們能在明年以顯著幅度持續擴大 PET。此外,關於我們資本效率模型的其他作法,我們會在未來的電話會議中再談,說明它如何支援更多聚合物成長。

  • Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

    Kevin McCarthy - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate the update.

    很好。感謝你的最新說明。

  • Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

    Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

  • Let's make the next question the last one, please.

    請把下一個問題作為最後一題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

    Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

  • Laurence Alexander - Analyst

    Laurence Alexander - Analyst

  • Can you touch on or give some detail on how you're thinking now about your M&A pipeline? How active is it? What are you seeing in terms of valuations? Are there strategic directions that you'd be open to considering? What's your positioning on that?

    你能否談談或提供一些細節,說明你們目前如何看待你們的併購(M&A)案源管線?活躍度如何?在估值方面你們看到了什麼?是否有你們願意考慮的策略方向?你們在這方面的立場是什麼?

  • Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Costa - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, first, what I'd say is, I think Eastman's had a great disciplined history when it comes to portfolio management. So there are times where we divested a bunch of underperforming businesses if you go far back in time. Then there was a period of time where we got out of these underperforming businesses and did large acquisitions like Solutia, Taminco, and bolt-ons that have been incredibly successful, and we did them in times when valuations were actually rational.

    嗯,首先我要說的是,我認為 Eastman 在投資組合管理方面一直有非常嚴謹且自律的歷史。所以在某些時期,如果你回溯很久以前,我們曾剝離過一批表現不佳的業務。接著有一段時間,我們退出這些表現不佳的業務,並進行了像 Solutia、Taminco 這樣的大型收購,以及一些補強型收購(bolt-ons),而且都非常成功;我們是在估值其實相對合理的時候完成這些交易。

  • So those big acquisitions we paid roughly 9 times EBITDA for and have been huge value contributors to the company. And then we've been in a phase of optimizing and growing organic growth through innovation, which I think has been successful and proven itself in good times and bad. And we've also shown we're willing to continue to be very disciplined on divestments, right?

    那些大型收購我們支付的價格大約是 EBITDA 的 9 倍,並為公司帶來了巨大的價值貢獻。之後我們進入一個階段,透過創新來最佳化並推動內生成長;我認為這是成功的,也已在景氣好壞時都證明其有效性。同時我們也展現出,我們願意在剝離方面持續保持高度自律,對吧?

  • So when we had some other businesses underperforming, like Tires and Adhesives, we divested them as well as optimized our acetic acid footprint. So great discipline there in divesting things when it made sense, 10 times EBITDA. So I think we've got a good track record in M&A of being very successful with it, being very disciplined when things are not working well.

    因此,當我們有其他業務表現不佳時,例如輪胎與黏著劑,我們也將其剝離,同時也最佳化了我們的醋酸產能布局。所以在該剝離時就剝離方面,我們展現了很好的自律性,當時的估值是 EBITDA 的 10 倍。因此我認為,我們在併購方面有良好的紀錄:做得很成功;當事情運作不佳時,也能非常自律地處理。

  • We definitely believe our company is at sort of minimum scale to be effective in our innovation and our balance sheet to support all the growth potential the company has. So as we look forward, we'll always be disciplined about businesses that are not performing and dealing with it. And we're always looking at M&A and considering it. Clearly, that M&A market has picked up activity this year, as you would expect in this market condition.

    我們確實相信,公司目前的規模大致已達到有效推動創新所需的最低規模,同時資產負債表也足以支撐公司所有成長潛力。因此展望未來,我們會一如既往,對於表現不佳的業務保持自律並加以處理。而我們也一直在關注並購並加以評估。很明顯地,如你在這樣的市場環境下所預期的,今年併購市場的活動度已經回升。

  • Valuations have improved to being more rational than they have been for quite some time. So we're out there considering all of our options, like I think every company in the industry is doing today. I think we can all acknowledge that we're probably going to see a lot of change over the next several years in this industry with all the dynamics that we face. But I'm incredibly confident that we'll remain disciplined and make good choices on both sides of the fence as those opportunities come up, but I'm not going to get into details on it.

    估值已改善,變得比過去相當長一段時間更為合理。所以我們正在評估所有選項,我想今天產業中的每家公司也都在做同樣的事。我想我們都能認同,面對各種動態因素,未來幾年這個產業可能會出現很多變化。但我非常有信心,我們會保持自律,並在機會出現時,在買與賣兩端都做出良好選擇;不過我不會在這裡談細節。

  • Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

    Gregory Riddle - Vice President, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications

  • Okay. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate you taking time to talk about Eastman this morning. Please have a great day.

    好的。再次感謝各位今天加入我們。感謝你們撥冗在今天早上與我們討論 Eastman。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。