伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com. We'll now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學公司2018年第三季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Cody, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jake LaRoe, Manager of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，科迪，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官科特·埃斯佩蘭 (Curt Espeland) 和投資者關係經理傑克·拉羅 (Jake LaRoe)。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's third quarter 2018 financial results news release, during this call and in the accompanying slides and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for second quarter 2018 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for third quarter 2018.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司 2018 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議及隨附幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括提交的 2018 年第二季度 10-Q 表和即將提交的 2018 年第三季度 10-Q 表。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain noncore and unusual items and have been adjusted for the forecasted tax rate as of the end of the interim periods.

其次，本報告中提到的收益不包括某些非核心項目和非常規項目，並且已根據中期末的預測稅率進行了調整。

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the third quarter 2018 financial results news release, which can be found on our website, www.eastman.com, in the Investors section. Projections of future earnings exclude any noncore unusual items and assume that the adjusted tax rate for the first 9 months of 2018 will be the actual tax rate for the projected periods.

與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關披露的對賬，包括排除項目和調整項目的描述，均可在 2018 年第三季度財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.eastman.com 的“投資者”部分找到。未來收益預測不包括任何非核心異常項目，並假設 2018 年前 9 個月的調整後稅率將是預測期間的實際稅率。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Good morning, everyone. I'll start on Page 3. During the first 9 months of the year, we delivered a 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS growth, and our third quarter was in line with our expectations. We delivered strong volume growth with innovation-driven mix improvement across our specialties, Advanced Materials and Additives & Functional products. We also delivered sequential earnings stability in Fibers and stability in CI.

大家早安。我先從第 3 頁開始。今年前 9 個月，我們的調整後每股盈餘年增 13%，第三季的業績符合我們的預期。我們透過創新驅動的專業產品、先進材料和添加劑及功能產品的組合改進實現了強勁的銷售成長。我們也實現了 Fibers 和 CI 的連續盈利穩定。

The portfolio specialty businesses we've built is showing resiliency in the face of global uncertainty, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver sustainable earnings growth. Innovation programs are the key to our success, and we're seeing great progress on a number of fronts. For example, AM delivered 9% volume growth in the quarter and 7% through the first 9 months through attractive premium products like Tritan, Saflex heads-up display interlayers and performance films, well above end market growth rates in transportation and consumer durables.

我們所建構的專業投資組合業務在全球不確定性面前表現出韌性，我們對實現可持續獲利成長的能力仍然充滿信心。創新計劃是我們成功的關鍵，我們在許多方面都取得了巨大進展。例如，AM 透過 Tritan、Saflex 平視顯示器夾層和性能膜等有吸引力的高端產品，在本季度實現了 9% 的銷售成長，前 9 個月實現了 7% 的成長，遠高於運輸和耐用消費品終端市場的成長率。

In AFP, despite a tough comp from the large solar fills last year, volume growth increased 1% in the quarter and 6% through the first 9 months. We continue to have double-digit growth in products lines such as Impera tire resins, animal nutrition, water treatment, Aerafin polymers and adhesives, crop protection plant growth regulators, among others, which were driven by revenue synergies from our acquisitions.

在法新社，儘管與去年大型太陽能填充物相比競爭激烈，但本季的銷量成長率為 1%，前 9 個月的銷量成長率為 6%。我們的產品線持續保持兩位數成長，例如 Impera 輪胎樹脂、動物營養、水處理、Aerafin 聚合物和黏合劑、作物保護植物生長調節劑等，這得益於我們收購帶來的收入協同效應。

And in Fibers, we're continuing our trend of delivering excellent revenue growth in textiles. Our innovative product offerings in acetate yarn delivered an exceptional revenue growth of 30% this quarter, giving us confidence that the Fibers segment is stabilizing. And we continue to be on track to deliver more than $350 million in new business closes this year across the company with a greater than 20% increase through the first 9 months. In a few moments, I'll highlight a couple of examples of how we're executing our innovation-driven growth model. Through relentless engagement in the market, our low-cost technology platforms and powerful application development, we're creating our own growth and winning with customers.

在纖維方面，我們延續了紡織品領域實現出色收入成長的趨勢。我們創新的醋酸纖維紗產品本季實現了 30% 的出色收入成長，這讓我們對纖維業務的穩定充滿信心。我們將繼續按計劃在今年為全公司實現超過 3.5 億美元的新業務，前 9 個月的成長幅度超過 20%。稍後我將重點介紹幾個我們如何執行創新驅動型成長模式的例子。透過不懈地參與市場、我們的低成本技術平台和強大的應用程式開發，我們正在創造自身的成長並與客戶一起獲勝。

On the cost management front, we remain focused on offsetting inflation with disciplined productivity savings. Free cash flow also remains a strength for us. Despite headwinds from higher raw materials, we have a path to deliver $1.1 billion in free cash flow this year. And we are allocating our strong free cash flow in a disciplined manner and in line with our priorities.

在成本管理方面，我們仍然致力於透過嚴格的生產力節約來抵消通貨膨脹。自由現金流仍然是我們的一大優勢。儘管原物料價格上漲帶來不利影響，但我們今年仍有望實現 11 億美元的自由現金流。我們正在以嚴謹的方式並根據我們的優先事項分配我們強大的自由現金流。

Through 9 months, we've returned $615 million to shareholders, returned $375 million of share repurchases and $240 million of dividends. And we remain very committed to delevering $300 million. Our third quarter results demonstrate that we continue to execute on what we can control, namely innovating through our enterprise and allocating our strong free cash flow in a disciplined way.

在過去的 9 個月中，我們向股東返還了 6.15 億美元，回購了 3.75 億美元的股票，並發放了 2.4 億美元的股息。我們仍然致力於消除 3 億美元的槓桿。我們的第三季業績表明，我們將繼續執行我們能夠控制的事情，即透過我們的企業進行創新並以規範的方式分配我們強勁的自由現金流。

On Slide 4, a key driver of success in growing our specialty business is not only creating new product innovation, but improving our commercial execution and driving revenue synergies from our acquisitions. Our teams continue to make great progress in delivering synergies from the Taminco acquisition. In addition to markets such as animal nutrition or crop protection, which we've highlighted in the past, our Care Chemicals business is delivering strong growth. Authorities around the world, including China, are in the process of adopting more stringent environmental laws, which require state-of-the-art water treatment solutions for the industrial municipal water treatment applications. Our unique technology and products allow our customers to manufacture polymers that enhance the clarification and purification of water. These widely used products are recommended as the best available technology today due to their remarkable ability to remove dirt particles efficiently at a low dosage in highly demanding water treatment applications. The growth opportunity is further enhanced by the acquisition of the remaining stake in our China JV last year and our subsequent capacity expansion at this site. So far this year, our water treatment business is up double digits. This growth opportunity, coupled with our continued enhancement of commercial execution capabilities, continue that trajectory.

在投影片 4 上，我們專業業務成長成功的關鍵驅動力不僅是創造新的產品創新，而且還改善我們的商業執行力並透過收購推動收入協同效應。我們的團隊在實現 Taminco 收購帶來的協同效應方面繼續取得巨大進展。除了我們過去強調的動物營養或作物保護等市場之外，我們的護理化學品業務也正在強勁成長。包括中國在內的世界各國政府正在製定更嚴格的環境法，要求工業市政水處理應用採用最先進的水處理解決方案。我們獨特的技術和產品使我們的客戶能夠製造增強水的澄清和淨化的聚合物。這些廣泛使用的產品被推薦為當今最佳可用技術，因為它們在高要求的水處理應用中具有以低劑量有效去除污垢顆粒的卓越能力。去年收購中國合資公司的剩餘股份以及隨後在該工廠的產能擴張進一步增強了成長機會。今年到目前為止，我們的水處理業務成長了兩位數。這一成長機會，加上我們不斷增強的商業執行能力，將延續這一軌跡。

Another exciting example is in Advanced Materials. After 10 years of tremendous growth with Tritan copolyesters, we continue to relentlessly engage customers, innovate and win in this market. And this is exemplified by our recent success in the medical application. As we outlined at Innovation Day, health care-associated infections are on the rise. To combat this issue, aggressive cleaning protocols are being used on hospital equipment, which causes the thermoplastics in these devices to fail prematurely, costing the hospitals a lot of money. Tritan has long been an innovative product with consumers for its toughness and BPA-free chemistry. It also has great chemical resistance, which enables it to be the most compelling thermoplastic to hold up under these new hospital cleaning protocols.

另一個令人興奮的例子是先進材料。在 Tritan 共聚酯經歷了 10 年的巨大成長之後，我們將繼續不懈地吸引客戶、創新並在這個市場中獲勝。我們最近在醫療應用方面的成功就證明了這一點。正如我們在創新日所概述的那樣，醫療保健相關感染正在增加。為了解決這個問題，醫院設備採用了嚴格的清潔規程，但這會導致這些設備中的熱塑性塑膠過早失效，對醫院造成巨大的損失。Tritan 長期以來一直是消費者青睞的創新產品，因為它堅韌且不含 BPA。它還具有很強的耐化學性，使其成為最符合新醫院清潔規程的熱塑性塑膠。

We continue to build momentum on this program with strong early market adoption in 2018. A great example is the recent win we've had with Mindray, an emerging technology leader in patient monitoring, anesthesia and ultrasound. After successful trials, Mindray launched Tritan in all of its North American patient monitors, making them disinfectant-ready and more durable over time. With this success, we are poised to drive additional growth with Mindray to pursue opportunities in other devices as well as other geographies. This combination of market and application development, underpinned by world-class technology platforms, continues to prove to be the model that delivers great results. In 2018, Tritan is on track to deliver another year of double-digit growth.

我們將繼續推進該計劃，並在 2018 年獲得強勁的早期市場採用。一個很好的例子就是我們最近與邁瑞公司達成的合作，邁瑞公司是病人監護、麻醉和超音波領域的新興技術領導者。經過成功試驗後，邁瑞在其所有北美病人監視器中推出了 Tritan，使其具有消毒能力並且更加耐用。憑藉這一成功，我們準備好與邁瑞一起推動進一步成長，尋求其他設備和其他地區的機會。這種以世界一流的技術平台為基礎的市場與應用開發的結合，繼續被證明是一種能夠帶來巨大成果的模式。2018年，Tritan有望再次實現兩位數成長。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Curt.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Curt。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I know it's been a rough couple of weeks in the market. So hopefully, you will sense that Eastman remains calm and is marching ahead with a compelling growth strategy in the face of some of this global uncertainty.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。我知道這幾週市場狀況很艱難。因此，希望您能感受到，面對全球不確定性，伊士曼依然保持冷靜，並正以引人注目的成長策略向前邁進。

So with that, I'll start with the third quarter results on Slide 5. Sales revenue increased, led by Advanced Materials delivering double-digit revenue growth. Chemical Intermediates also continues to do a nice job, raising prices to more than offset rising input costs in a challenging raw material environment.

因此，我將從幻燈片 5 上的第三季業績開始。銷售收入增加，其中先進材料業務收入實現了兩位數的成長。化學中間體也持續表現良好，在充滿挑戰的原材料環境下，其價格上漲足以抵消不斷上漲的投入成本。

EBIT in the quarter declined as solid earnings growth in Advanced Materials was offset by other segments. We continue to make strong progress with variable margin per unit, which increased in the quarter through mix upgrade and prices mostly keeping up with increasing raw material costs. This progress was offset by challenging year-over-year volume comparisons in both the Fibers and Additives & Functional Products segments as well as we continued to see some investments in growth.

由於先進材料業務的穩健獲利成長被其他部門所抵消，本季度息稅前利潤有所下降。我們繼續在單位變動利潤率方面取得強勁進展，本季透過產品組合升級和價格上漲基本上跟上了原材料成本的上漲，單位變動利潤率有所提高。這一進展被纖維、添加劑和功能產品部門的同比銷量挑戰以及我們繼續看到的一些成長投資所抵消。

Earnings per share increased both year-over-year and sequentially due to solid operating results, a lower effective tax rate and share repurchases resulting in lower share count. As always, we focus on driving value through every line of the income statement to deliver earnings per share growth. Overall, a strong third quarter.

由於穩健的經營業績、較低的有效稅率以及股票回購導致股數減少，每股盈餘較去年同期和較上季均有所成長。像往常一樣，我們專注於透過損益表的每一行來推動價值，以實現每股盈餘的成長。整體而言，第三季表現強勁。

Moving next to the segment results and starting with Advanced Materials on Slide 6, which delivered 9% volume growth in the third quarter. Sales revenue increased due to higher sales volume and continued improvement in product mix across the segment, driven by double-digit growth in premium products such as Tritan copolyester, Saflex heads-up display and performance films. EBIT increased primarily due to higher sales volume and an improved product mix, partially offset by higher raw material cost and increased growth investments.

接下來是分部業績，從幻燈片 6 上的先進材料開始，該部門在第三季度實現了 9% 的銷售成長。銷售收入的成長得益於銷售量的增加和整個部門產品結構的持續改善，這得益於 Tritan 共聚酯、Saflex 平視顯示器和高性能薄膜等高端產品的兩位數增長。息稅前利潤的成長主要由於銷售量增加和產品組合改善，但原材料成本上升和成長投資增加部分抵消了這一增長。

Looking at our expectation for the full year of 2018, we expect EBIT to grow towards the low end of the 7% to 10% range we communicated at our Innovation Day. For the year, this reflects mid- to upper single-digit volume growth, which is well above our end market growth and reflects the progress we're making on innovation. In addition, we're implementing price increases in our copolyester products to mostly offset the substantial increases in paraxylene costs that occurred through the third quarter. Overall, a solid quarter and Advanced Materials is positioned for strong earnings growth in 2018.

展望我們對 2018 年全年的預期，我們預計息稅前利潤將增長至我們在創新日上傳達的 7% 至 10% 區間的低端。就今年而言，這反映了中等至高個位數的銷售成長，遠高於我們的終端市場成長，並反映了我們在創新方面取得的進步。此外，我們正在提高共聚酯產品的價格，以主要抵消第三季對二甲苯成本的大幅上漲。整體而言，本季業績穩健，先進材料預計在 2018 年實現強勁獲利成長。

Now to Additives & Functional Products on Slide 7, which had a solid third quarter. Sales revenue increased, primarily due to higher selling prices across most product lines and modest volume growth due to the tough comp in third quarter of 2017 from large solar fills. EBIT decreased slightly, primarily due to higher raw material and energy cost and increased growth investments, partially offset by higher selling prices and volume growth.

現在就來看看投影片 7 上的添加劑和功能產品，該部門第三季表現穩健。銷售收入增加，主要由於大多數產品線的銷售價格上漲，以及由於 2017 年第三季大型太陽能填充物的艱難競爭導致銷量適度增長。息稅前利潤略有下降，主要原因是原物料和能源成本上升以及成長投資增加，但被銷售價格上漲和銷售成長部分抵銷。

Additives & Functional Products is doing a good job managing through a number of headwinds. Raw material and energy costs have increased, and we are making progress in catching up with higher prices. And we've now had our year-over-year price increases for 6 consecutive quarters. An exception is the adhesives resins market, where an increase in competitive capacity is making it difficult to raise prices to cover rising oil-driven raw material costs.

添加劑和功能產品在克服諸多不利因素方面表現良好。原料和能源成本已經上漲，我們正在努力追趕更高的價格。目前，我們已經連續六個季度實現價格年增。黏合劑樹脂市場是一個例外，該市場競爭力的增強使得其難以提高價格來彌補石油驅動的原材料成本的上漲。

With that said, we continue to expect volume growth for the year will be in the mid-single digits, consistent with 6% growth through 9 months. In the fourth quarter, we expect continuous volume growth in Animal Nutrition, Care Chemicals and Aerafin polymers, and we expect some destocking from customers in the tires and coatings in the fourth quarter. Adding it all together, we expect full year EBIT to grow towards the low end of the 5% to 7% range we communicated at our Innovation Day.

話雖如此，我們仍然預計今年的銷售成長將達到中等個位數，與前 9 個月 6% 的成長率一致。在第四季度，我們預計動物營養、護理化學品和 Aerafin 聚合物的銷售將持續成長，我們預計第四季度輪胎和塗料領域的客戶將減少庫存。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計全年息稅前利潤將增長至我們在創新日上所預期的 5% 至 7% 區間的低端。

Now on to Chemical Intermediates on Slide 8. Sales revenue increased due to higher selling prices across most product lines, mostly offset by lower sales volume, primarily due to lower merchant ethylene sales. EBIT decreased slightly due to lower sales volume being offset by higher selling prices more than offsetting higher raw material and energy costs. Chemical Intermediates has continued to do a nice job raising prices to offset the impact of a challenging raw material environment. In the fourth quarter, we expect EBIT to be up somewhat year-over-year, with higher volume, excluding merchant ethylene, and higher selling prices continuing to offset higher raw material and energy costs.

現在討論幻燈片 8 上的化學中間體。銷售收入的增加是由於大多數產品線的銷售價格上漲，但大部分被銷售量的下降所抵消，這主要是由於商用乙烯銷售下降。息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 略有下降，因為銷售量下降被銷售價格上漲所抵消，而原材料和能源成本上漲則抵消了銷售價格上漲。化學中間體繼續良好地提高價格，以抵消原材料環境挑戰的影響。我們預計第四季度息稅前利潤將同比略有上升，因為不包括商用乙烯在內的銷售增加以及銷售價格上漲將繼續抵消原材料和能源成本的上漲。

I'll finish up the segment reviews with Fibers on Slide 9, which continues to demonstrate progress towards stabilizing results. Sales revenue was down slightly in the quarter as selling prices declined in line with previous quarters this year. Sales volume increased as growth in textile and nonwoven applications was partially offset by lower acetate total sales volume, reflecting customer buying patterns. We are making great progress in the textiles market as yarn volume was up 30% in the quarter, led by our Naia product line. EBIT declined year-over-year as expected and was about flat sequentially, showing stability for the first 9 months of 2018.

我將在第 9 張幻燈片上完成對 Fibers 的分段回顧，這將繼續展示在穩定結果方面的進展。由於銷售價格與今年前幾季一致下降，本季銷售收入略有下降。由於紡織品和非織造布應用的成長被醋酸纖維總銷量的下降部分抵消，銷量有所增加，這反映了客戶的購買模式。我們在紡織品市場取得了巨大進步，本季紗線銷量成長了 30%，這主要得益於我們的 Naia 產品線。息稅前利潤如預期同比下降，環比持平，2018 年前 9 個月保持穩定。

In the second half of the year, we've been working to manage through a recent trade situation with China that started in the middle of the third quarter, which has resulted in no new Chinese tow imports from U.S. manufacturing sites. As a result, we now expect total revenue for China for the full year of 2018 will be approximately 3% of total Fibers segment revenue versus the previous expectation of 5%. We continue to expect acetate tow volume outside of China to be stable for the year. And our productivity gains are continuing to flow through, and the progress of our growth initiatives is contributing to earnings stability. Looking at full year 2018, considering all these factors, we expect EBIT in this segment to be slightly lower compared to last year. And on the trade issue, we're working to mitigate the impact for 2019 if it persists.

下半年，我們一直在努力應對自第三季中期開始的與中國的貿易形勢，這一形勢導緻美國製造基地沒有進口新的中國絲束。因此，我們現在預計 2018 年全年中國市場的總收入將佔纖維部門總收入的約 3%，而先前的預期為 5%。我們仍預期今年中國以外的醋酸纖維絲束產量將保持穩定。我們的生產力不斷提高，成長計畫的進展也為獲利穩定做出了貢獻。展望 2018 年全年，考慮到所有這些因素，我們預計該部門的息稅前利潤將略低於去年。關於貿易問題，如果問題持續存在，我們正在努力減輕對2019年的影響。

One last comment on our asset strategy. Our focus on innovation has resulted in repurposing some of our acetate tow manufacturing lines to textiles and nonwovens, which are no longer needed for tow and which has led to increased capacity utilization that improves our cost position to serve our tow customers. The net result is that our global acetate tow capacity today is approximately 155,000 metric tons, which is 30,000 metric tons or over 15% less than it was compared to a year ago. We are making progress towards a future where when you look at Fibers business, you won't see just an acetate tow business, but rather an innovation-driven Fibers business serving diverse and growing end markets. This is yet another reason we are confident in our ability to stabilize the EBIT and cash flows for this segment.

最後再來評論一下我們的資產策略。我們注重創新，將部分醋酸纖維絲束生產線重新用於生產不再需要用於生產絲束的紡織品和無紡布，從而提高了產能利用率，改善了我們的成本狀況，更好地為絲束客戶提供服務。最終結果是，我們目前的全球醋酸纖維絲束產能約為 155,000 公噸，與一年前相比減少了 30,000 公噸，降幅超過 15%。我們正在朝著這樣的未來邁進：當你審視纖維業務時，你看到的不僅僅是醋酸纖維絲束業務，而是一個服務於多樣化和不斷增長的終端市場的創新驅動型纖維業務。這也是我們對穩定部門息稅前利潤和現金流的能力充滿信心的另一個原因。

On Slide 10, I'll transition to an overview of our cash flow and other financial highlights for third quarter. We remain on track to deliver a solid year in cash generation and disciplined capital allocation in 2018. Capital expenditures for the first 9 months of 2018 totaled $381 million excluding insurance proceeds. And we expect full year capital expenditures excluding insurance proceeds to come between $525 million to $550 million, somewhat lower than our previous projection as we managed capital in this uncertain global economy.

在第 10 張投影片上，我將概述我們的現金流和第三季的其他財務亮點。我們仍有望在 2018 年實現穩健的現金創造和嚴格的資本配置。2018 年前 9 個月的資本支出總計 3.81 億美元（不含保險收益）。我們預計全年資本支出（不包括保險收益）將在 5.25 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間，略低於我們先前的預測，因為我們在當前不確定的全球經濟中管理資本。

On free cash flow, we have a number of factors in the fourth quarter beyond normal seasonality that give us a path to generate approximately $1.1 billion of free cash flow for the year: First, the fourth quarter will include receipt of the final coal gas insurance payment of $65 million; second, we expect additions to property and equipment in the fourth quarter will be more than $50 million lower than the year-ago period; third, we have plans in place to aggressively manage our working capital.

在自由現金流方面，除了正常的季節性因素外，第四季度還有許多因素使我們能夠在全年產生約 11 億美元的自由現金流：首先，第四季度將收到 6500 萬美元的最後一筆煤氣保險賠付；其次，我們預計第四季度的財產和設備增加額將比去年同期減少 5000 多萬美元；第三，我們已經制定了積極管理資本的計劃。

Looking at the balance sheet, we remain committed to using $300 million of free cash flow to reduce debt this year. Additionally, we remain committed to returning cash to stockholders. For the first 9 months, we returned $615 million, split between $240 million in dividends and $375 million in share repurchases. We have improved our expected full year effective tax rate to be approximately 17%, below the bottom of our previous range.

從資產負債表來看，我們今年仍致力於使用 3 億美元的自由現金流來減少債務。此外，我們仍致力於向股東返還現金。前 9 個月，我們返還了 6.15 億美元，其中 2.4 億美元用於股息，3.75 億美元用於股票回購。我們已將預期的全年有效稅率提高至約 17%，低於我們先前範圍的底部。

Lastly, one more comment on the coal gas incident. We have previously indicated we expect the final net impact of the incident to be between $25 million and $50 million. With the final insurance settlement recorded in the third quarter of 2018, the net impact was approximately $25 million. And the negative cash flow impact in 2018 is expected to be at a similar level. I really appreciate the efforts of the Eastman team to help minimize the financial impact of last year's incident. Well done.

最後，再對煤氣事件發表一點評論。我們先前曾表示，預計該事件的最終淨影響將在 2,500 萬美元至 5,000 萬美元之間。2018 年第三季記錄的最終保險賠償金額約為 2,500 萬美元。預計2018年的負面現金流影響也將達到類似水準。我非常感謝伊士曼團隊為盡量減少去年事件造成的財務影響所做的努力。做得好。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Mark.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. On Slide 11, I'll discuss our 2018 outlook. Through the first 9 months of 2018, we delivered strong volume growth and mix improvement in our specialty segments, over 2x the growth in the underlying markets. We are continuing to benefit from our innovation-driven growth model. We're making great progress on new business revenue closes, which is up 20% through the first 9 months. And we expect to continue creating our own growth in the many applications across the company through innovation, enabling us to grow faster than the underlying markets. We're also on track to offset inflation through productivity. And as I mentioned in my first slide, we returned $615 million to our stockholders through the first 9 months, including accelerating our share repurchase program. Lastly, we have improved our effective tax rate.

謝謝，Curt。在第 11 張投影片上，我將討論我們對 2018 年的展望。2018 年頭 9 個月，我們的專業領域實現了強勁的銷售成長和產品組合改善，是基礎市場增幅的 2 倍以上。我們將繼續受益於創新驅動的成長模式。我們在新業務收入方面取得了巨大進展，前 9 個月成長了 20%。我們希望透過創新繼續在公司眾多應用中創造自身的成長，從而讓我們的成長速度超越基礎市場。我們也有望透過提高生產力來抵消通貨膨脹。正如我在第一張投影片中提到的，我們在前 9 個月向股東返還了 6.15 億美元，包括加速我們的股票回購計畫。最後，我們提高了有效稅率。

At the same time, while we focus on what we can control, we are managing a number of headwinds. We're seeing some pockets of destocking with no evidence of a broader slowdown with the exception of autos in China. We've also seen higher raw material and energy prices, although these are volatile as we've seen over the last several days. And we have some limited exposure to trade disputes, particularly in Fibers.

同時，當我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情時，我們也面臨許多阻力。我們看到一些領域出現了去庫存現象，但除中國汽車產業外，沒有出現更大範圍經濟放緩的跡象。我們也看到原材料和能源價格上漲，儘管正如我們過去幾天所看到的那樣，這些價格波動很大。我們在貿易爭端方面受到的影響有限，特別是在纖維領域。

Taking all this together, we expect that the EPS growth will remain at the 10% to 14% range and will likely be toward the bottom of that range. And as Curt mentioned, we have a path to deliver over $1.1 billion of free cash flow, which is one of the strongest in the industry and reflects our outstanding performance, especially in this inflationary environment.

綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計每股收益成長將保持在 10% 至 14% 的範圍內，並且可能接近該範圍的底部。正如 Curt 所提到的，我們有能力實現超過 11 億美元的自由現金流，這是業內最強勁的自由現金流之一，反映了我們出色的表現，尤其是在通膨環境下。

On Slide 12, let me make a few comments about our expectations for 2019 and summarize where we are. As we look at 2019, we have a couple of high-level assumptions: economic growth is similar to '18; raw material and energy prices are fairly stable; and the U.S. dollar does not strengthen meaningfully from the second half of 2018.

在第 12 張投影片上，請容許我對我們對 2019 年的期望發表一些評論，並總結一下我們目前的狀況。展望2019年，我們有幾個高層次的假設：經濟成長與2018年相似；原料和能源價格相當穩定；美元從2018年下半年開始不會大幅走強。

In this context, we expect continued growth in volume and mix upgrade, which has been powerful for the last 5 years. In particular, we will continue to create our own growth through our innovation-driven growth model. We expect to benefit from the absence of significant operational headwinds, including unplanned vendor outages and higher-than-normal plant shutdowns. We also don't have another large step-up in growth costs next year. With our expected growth and fixed cost leverage, we'll convert a variable margin to the bottom line much more effectively than this year, providing an attractive return on these investments as we move forward. And we expect to benefit from the RGP investment lowering our merchant sales in ethylene relative to 2018. With more stable raw material prices, we will not be chasing raw materials with price increases through the year in the specialties.

在此背景下，我們預期銷售量和產品組合將持續成長，過去五年來一直表現強勁。特別是，我們將繼續透過創新驅動的成長模式創造自身的成長。我們預計，不會出現重大營運阻力，包括計劃外的供應商停工和高於正常水平的工廠停工，這將使我們受益。明年我們的成長成本也不會再次大幅增加。憑藉我們預期的成長和固定成本槓桿，我們將比今年更有效地將浮動利潤轉化為底線，從而在未來為這些投資提供有吸引力的回報。我們預計，RGP 投資將使我們的乙烯商業銷售額相對於 2018 年有所下降，從而受益。隨著原物料價格更加穩定，我們將不會追逐特種原料的價格而全年上漲。

On the segment level, we expect to see sustainable earnings growth in the specialties due to volume growth and fixed cost leverage, along with stability in Fibers and CI, which is consistent with what we shared with you at Innovation Day. And disciplined allocation of our strong free cash flow also contributes to EPS growth.

在細分市場層面，我們預計，由於產量成長和固定成本槓桿，以及纖維和CI的穩定性，特種產品的獲利將持續成長，這與我們在創新日與您分享的內容一致。我們強勁的自由現金流的合理分配也有助於每股收益的成長。

As a result, we expect EPS growth to be in the 8% to 12% long-term range we communicated at Innovation Day. We'll talk more about our outlook for 2019 on our call in January when we have more insight into the macroeconomic conditions.

因此，我們預計 EPS 成長率將在創新日傳達的 8% 至 12% 的長期範圍內。當我們對宏觀經濟狀況有了更多的了解時，我們將在 1 月的電話會議上進一步討論對 2019 年的展望。

Finally, let me summarize where we are and why I'm so confident about our future. As you think about our portfolio, we're showing progress in our goal of driving from 70% to 80% of our business in specialties, which is especially important in the face of uncertain macroeconomic trends. All this comes together for a terrific bottom line. We can grow faster than underlying markets and sustain our margin through our unique innovation-driven growth model. We also do this at a scale and integration which gives us a competitive advantage in how we develop new products and bring them to market. And finally, through disciplined portfolio management, it leads you to one of the strongest free cash flows in the industry, a strong return on invested capital that is growing and compelling compounded EPS growth through 2020 and beyond. When you put it all together, we are well positioned for long-term attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation for our shareholders and all of our other stakeholders.

最後，讓我總結一下我們目前的狀況以及我為什麼對我們的未來如此有信心。當您考慮我們的產品組合時，我們會發現我們在實現將 70% 的業務集中在專業領域上的目標方面取得了進展，這在宏觀經濟趨勢不確定的情況下尤其重要。所有這些加在一起，帶來了極好的利潤。透過我們獨特的創新驅動成長模式，我們可以比基礎市場成長更快，並保持利潤率。我們也以規模化和整合化的方式進行這項工作，這使我們在開發新產品並將其推向市場方面具有競爭優勢。最後，透過嚴格的投資組合管理，它將為您帶來業內最強勁的自由現金流之一，強勁的投資資本回報率不斷增長，並在 2020 年及以後實現令人信服的複合每股收益增長。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們就有能力為股東和所有其他利害關係人實現長期可觀的獲利成長和永續的價值創造。

With that, I'll turn it back to Greg.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給格雷格。

Thanks, Mark. We've got a lot of people on the line this morning and we'd like to get to as many of the questions as possible. (Operator Instructions) With that, Cody, we are ready for questions.

謝謝，馬克。今天早上有很多人在線，我們希望盡可能回答他們的問題。（操作員指示）科迪，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）我們將回答德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的第一個問題。

Mark, just on 2019 guidance, when do you expect selling prices to catch up to raw materials in the specialty businesses?

馬克，僅根據 2019 年的指導，您預計專業業務的銷售價格何時能趕上原材料的價格？

So we're making great progress on that front already through the third and fourth quarter. AFP's had 6 consecutive quarters of price increases, making good progress on that. And we expect that as we work through the fourth quarter and into the first quarter, we should be in a good position to get our prices catch up. I mean, the fourth quarter includes normal seasonality and destocking, as we've mentioned, so we'll get some of it then, but the remainder in the first quarter.

因此，我們在第三季和第四季已經在這方面取得了巨大進展。AFP已連續6個季度漲價，並取得了良好進展。我們預計，隨著第四季和第一季的推進，我們的價格將有望趕上來。我的意思是，正如我們所提到的，第四季度包括正常的季節性和去庫存，所以我們會得到其中的一部分，但剩餘的部分將在第一季獲得。

Very good. And Curt, just on 2019, how should we think about share buybacks versus debt reduction in terms of the capital deployment for next year?

非常好。Curt，就 2019 年而言，就明年的資本配置而言，我們應該如何考慮股票回購與債務削減？

So I'll start with you should assume that our free cash flow will grow because we're doing a great job converting net earnings to cash flow. We'll be assessing how much deleveraging. I think our deleveraging will decline. In part, that will determine based on how much EBITDA growth we expect next year. So if you think about cash flow deployment, it's going to be, first, to pay that nice dividend that we have, which is yielding even better than it was a month ago. Secondly, we'll be doing some continued deleveraging, but less than what we did less this year. And in absence of bolt-ons, it will be deployed for share repurchases.

因此，首先您應該假設我們的自由現金流將會成長，因為我們在將淨收益轉化為現金流方面做得很好。我們將評估去槓桿的程度。我認為我們的去槓桿將會下降。在某種程度上，這將取決於我們預期明年的 EBITDA 成長量。因此，如果您考慮現金流部署，那麼首先要支付我們現有的豐厚股息，其收益率甚至比一個月前還要高。其次，我們將繼續去槓桿，但力度會比今年還要小。在沒有附加措施的情況下，它將用於股票回購。

We'll now move on to our next question from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們現在轉到摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的下一個問題。

Just you referenced the destocking. Can you just clarify, are you seeing any destocking outside of something that's a derivative of auto production?

您剛才提到了去庫存。您能否澄清一下，除了汽車生產衍生產品之外，您是否還看到其他去庫存現象？

Sure, Vince. So right now, it's always hard to know exactly what's going on, especially at the beginning of the fourth quarter. We certainly see some destocking in coatings and tires, as you noted, that is associated with the auto industry. We are anticipating that there's some potential destocking that could be driven by trade concerns in China about our customers' ability to export back to the U.S., which would be more service, specialty plastics, consumer durable-oriented. But I'd tell you right now, orders are holding up relatively well in October across the specialties. So outside of autos, where we can see some destocking, it's more about anticipation of these issues more than things we see at the moment.

當然，文斯。所以現在，總是很難確切知道到底發生了什麼，特別是在第四季開始時。正如您所說，我們確實看到塗料和輪胎的去庫存現象，這與汽車行業有關。我們預計，由於中國對我們的客戶向美國出口更多服務、特種塑膠和耐用消費品的能力存在貿易擔憂，可能會出現一些潛在的去庫存現象。但現在我要告訴你，十月份各專業的訂單狀況都相對較好。因此，在汽車產業之外，我們可以看到一些去庫存現象，但這更多的是出於對這些問題的預期，而不是我們目前看到的情況。

Okay, that's good to hear. And just as a follow-up on the cash flow statement, what's the big swing factor in this other items net line?

好的，很高興聽到這個消息。作為現金流量表的後續問題，其他專案淨額中最大的波動因素是什麼？

What you see in the other net just in third quarter is we did our settlement with our insurance provider for the coal gas incident. That created a $65 million receivable at the end of September, which we've now collected in October. Another way to think about it as you think about the seasonality of cash flows, as I mentioned, the net impact's going to be roughly $25 million on cash this year. So if you assume that $65 million of benefit in fourth quarter, that means our cash flows have been hurt mostly this year, and a good part of that was in the third quarter. So that's what you're seeing as the seasonality of cash flows. But that specific item that you're seeing in other is a $65 million insurance receivable at the end of September.

您在第三季的另一個網路中看到，我們與保險公司就瓦斯事故達成了和解。這導致我們在九月底產生了 6500 萬美元的應收帳款，目前我們已經在十月份收回了這筆款項。另一種思考方式是，當你考慮現金流的季節性時，正如我所提到的，今年的淨影響將對現金產生約 2500 萬美元的影響。因此，如果假設第四季度的收益為 6500 萬美元，那就意味著我們的現金流今年受到了最大程度的損害，其中很大一部分發生在第三季。這就是您所看到的現金流的季節性。但您在其他地方看到的具體項目是 9 月底的 6500 萬美元保險應收款。

We'll now take our next question from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們現在來回答 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch 提出的下一個問題。

Following up on the destocking question. I believe you said the pace of business in October was holding up well and kind of your guidance has anticipation of these issues. Are you meaning to say that you're leaving yourself some wiggle room in terms of the guidance of the various segments? Or you have a pretty clear line of sight that come November, come December, you're going to be hit with these issues?

繼續討論去庫存問題。我相信您說過 10 月份的業務節奏保持良好，並且您的指導已經預見了這些問題。您的意思是說，您在各個部分的指導方面給自己留了一些迴旋餘地嗎？或者您清楚知道，到了十一月、十二月，您就會遇到這些問題？

Well, Frank, I think that any fourth quarter is a tough one to predict. There's always a certain amount of seasonal decline due to normal destocking and demand trends. Obviously, we're in a much more volatile time right now when you see what everyone else is saying around the industry. I think our guidance is pretty good. It does include some anticipation. When you think about the fourth quarter, you've got a couple of factors. One is the destocking issue, as we've identified, and it's our best estimation. You've also got raw materials -- prices still chasing raw materials. I'd say in AM, we feel good. We've implemented some price increases in October that have gone quite well to start catching up to paraxylene. And so I think we're making really good progress there to get to where we need to be by the first quarter with where we think PX prices are going to sort of trend off. And in AFP, we're still doing the same thing, which is managing our price relative to raws with the exception of adhesives where we've been talking about, a known coming challenge for quite some time. So when you put those 2 things together and you've got a bit of a tough comp as well, when you think about the fourth quarter, we have some higher shutdown cost, you have some of the solar fills that were really strong in the third quarter of AFP, was also about 1/3 of them were in the fourth quarter. So there's a lot of things we're trying to balance in that guidance, but we still feel it's a very good fourth quarter.

嗯，弗蘭克，我認為第四季的任何表現都很難預測。由於正常的去庫存和需求趨勢，總是會出現一定程度的季節性下降。顯然，當你看到業內其他人的言論時，你會發現我們現在正處於一個更動盪的時期。我認為我們的指導非常好。它確實包含一些期待。當你考慮第四季時，你會發現幾個因素。一個是去庫存問題，正如我們已經確定的，這是我們最好的估計。你還擁有原料——價格仍然追逐原材料。我想說，在上午，我們感覺很好。我們在十月實施了一些價格上調，效果很好，開始趕上對二甲苯的價格。因此，我認為我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展，到第一季度，PX 價格將達到我們需要的水平，我們認為 PX 價格將呈現一定的趨勢。在 AFP，我們仍在做同樣的事情，即管理相對於原材料的價格（我們一直在談論的黏合劑除外），這是一個眾所周知的、即將面臨的挑戰。因此，當你把這兩件事放在一起時，你也會得到一些艱難的比較，當你想到第四季度時，我們的停工成本會更高，你會看到在 AFP 第三季度非常強勁的一些太陽能填充物，其中約有 1/3 是在第四季度。因此，我們正試圖在該指引中平衡很多事情，但我們仍然認為第四季度的表現非常好。

All right. That's very helpful. And Curt, I couldn't help but notice a little bit of the gallows humor on the dividend yield. To what extent -- and you outlined what your thoughts were in 2019, but -- and you accelerate -- you've been accelerating your repurchase here in 2018 versus your original guidance there. What should we be expecting given the decline here in Q4?

好的。這非常有幫助。還有 Curt，我不禁注意到股息殖利率中存在一些黑色幽默。在多大程度上 - 您概述了您在 2019 年的想法，但是 - 您加速了 - 與最初的指導相比，您在 2018 年加速了回購。鑑於第四季的下滑，我們該期待什麼？

Well, welcome back, Frank. As it relates to the share repurchases, we're going to be disciplined with our capital allocation. And we're going to complete utilizing $300 million of free cash flow to delever. So you can do the math off of our $1.1 billion to determine kind of roughly how much share repurchases we'll be doing this quarter. And I can assure you, with the discipline that our treasury team executes, we've been in the market with our 10b5-1 plan. So we've been in the market all year. We're going to be in the market in the fourth quarter. And I can assure you, we're going to be in the market next year as we continue to repurchase share as part of our disciplined capital allocation philosophy.

好吧，歡迎回來，弗蘭克。由於涉及股票回購，我們將嚴格控制資本配置。我們將利用 3 億美元的自由現金流來完成去槓桿。因此，您可以根據我們的 11 億美元計算我們本季將進行多少股票回購。我可以向你們保證，憑藉我們財務團隊所執行的紀律，我們已經在市場上實施了 10b5-1 計劃。所以我們一整年都在市場上。我們將在第四季進入市場。我可以向你們保證，明年我們將繼續進入市場，並繼續回購股票，這是我們嚴謹的資本配置概念的一部分。

We'll now move on to our next question from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們現在轉到花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar 提出的下一個問題。

A good quarter in Advanced Materials. Your volumes have been growing nicely at high single digits for a few quarters, but prices are not following. Is that just a lag? Or is that a deliberate strategy so that you can push plastics like Tritan into new applications?

先進材料產業本季表現良好。幾個季度以來，你們的銷售量一直保持高個位數的良好成長，但價格卻沒有隨之成長。這僅僅是一個滯後嗎？或者這是一種刻意的策略，以便將 Tritan 等塑膠推向新的應用領域？

So there are 2 different sides to the story, as we've discussed in the past. First of all, we're very happy about Advanced Materials and the strong progress it's having, delivering very strong growth relative to the underlying markets across the whole business. So the top line has been great. The mix upgrade has been great. Within the third quarter, PX prices moved up pretty dramatically within the quarter, and most of that's clearly pricing. So you couldn't really take action on that dynamic until you got to October 1, which we did. And we've introduced a price increase that should cover most of that PX increase as we work through the fourth quarter. So if you look at our history on that side of things and all of our copolyester related products, I think we've actually managed price of raws fairly well. As we said in the last call on the interlayers business, we have had an intentional strategy of sharing some of the scale of our high-end specialties heads-up display in acoustics as we ramp those products up and get more cost efficiency in how we make them. We've shared some pricing on that with them to support their growth, which has been exceptionally strong. We have very high double-digit growth in heads-up display. Strong growth continues in acoustics that drives a significant amount of earnings increase on the mix side that is far more valuable than the modest price declines we've been sharing with them as we gain efficiency on the fixed cost leverage. So net, there's 2 different stories and strategies there, both of them working incredibly well. And I think we're on track to deliver good growth. It's important to remember that it's not just price of raws as part of the story in the third quarter and the fourth. It's the growth investments we've made in the segment, which, in the third quarter, was around $10 million higher growth costs than 2017. So when you sort of think about those 2 factors put together, it was actually very strong results for AM.

正如我們過去討論過的，這個故事有兩個不同的面向。首先，我們對先進材料及其取得的強勁進展感到非常高興，相對於整個業務的基礎市場而言，它實現了非常強勁的成長。因此，營收表現非常出色。混合升級非常棒。第三季度，PX 價格大幅上漲，其中大部分顯然是定價。因此，直到 10 月 1 日你才能真正針對這一動態採取行動，而我們做到了。我們已經提高了價格，這應該可以彌補第四季度大部分 PX 價格上漲的影響。因此，如果你看看我們在這方面的歷史以及我們所有共聚酯相關產品，我認為我們實際上已經很好地管理了原材料的價格。正如我們在上次關於中間層業務的電話會議上所說的那樣，我們有一個有意的策略，即隨著我們擴大這些產品的產量並在生產過程中提高成本效益，分享我們在聲學領域的高端專業平視顯示器的部分規模。我們與他們分享了一些定價，以支持他們的強勁成長。我們的平視顯示器實現了非常高的兩位數成長。聲學領域繼續保持強勁增長，推動了混合方面的收益大幅增加，這比我們與他們分享的適度價格下降更有價值，因為我們在固定成本槓桿方面獲得了效率。因此，總共有兩個不同的故事和策略，而且都非常有效。我認為我們正朝著良好成長的方向發展。重要的是要記住，第三季和第四季的故事不僅僅是原物料價格的問題。這是我們在該部門進行的成長投資，第三季的成長成本比 2017 年高出約 1,000 萬美元。因此，當您將這兩個因素放在一起考慮時，您會發現 AM 的表現實際上非常強勁。

All right. And just on strategy front, in last 3 years, you stayed away from bigger M&A after acquiring Solutia and Taminco. Are there smaller bolt-on deals that you are looking at that you can add to the portfolio? And at what point do you feel that you can go back and look for a bigger deal after you've grown this portfolio now in last 3 years?

好的。從策略角度來看，在過去 3 年裡，在收購 Solutia 和 Taminco 之後，你們就不再進行更大規模的併購。您是否正在考慮一些規模較小的附加交易，可以將其添加到投資組合中？在過去 3 年中，您的投資組合不斷擴大，您什麼時候會覺得可以回頭尋找更大的交易？

So no change in our philosophy, P.J. We've been looking primarily at bolt-on acquisitions. There's things in the pipeline. We're going to continue to be disciplined as we go through that process. Who knows, maybe some of this market volatility will create some closure in bid-ask spreads that we're encountering in some of our activity out there. So again, nothing imminent right now on the bolt-on acquisition front, and we're going to remain patient and a disciplined buyer.

所以我們的理念沒有改變，P.J.我們主要關注的是附加收購。有一些事情正在籌備中。在這過程中，我們將繼續嚴守紀律。誰知道呢，也許這種市場波動會導致我們在某些​​活動中遇到的買賣價差縮小。所以，再說一次，目前在附加收購方面沒有任何緊迫的事情發生，我們將保持耐心並做一個自律的買家。

Yes. I would just add that on the large M&A question, we're actually quite happy with the portfolio we have. I think we are well ahead of the industry in being very disciplined in portfolio management. As you all know, we divested a lot of commodity businesses, $3.5 billion in revenue. And we did some substantial acquisitions with Solutia and Taminco and a few bolt-ons that got us over $4 billion in revenue, dramatically improving the structural quality of our EBIT margins as well as improving the stability and ability to create our own growth in times like this where economics -- the macro economy is a little less certain. So we feel like we've done what we need to do in improving the quality of our portfolio. We're not looking for large M&A at this stage because we've done the transformation we need. We're now just focused on bolt-ons, as Curt said. And much more importantly, our growth model is really paying off every day. We're driving a lot of innovation and growth across AM and AFP, where we create our own growth. And we make sure we get a good return on investment for these acquisitions, which are a lot of the growth that we're delivering through the revenue synergies with them.

是的。我想補充一點，關於大型併購問題，我們實際上對我們現有的投資組合非常滿意。我認為我們在投資組合管理方面非常嚴謹，遠遠領先整個產業。大家知道，我們剝離了許多大宗商品業務，營收達35億美元。我們與 Solutia 和 Taminco 進行了一些重大收購，並進行了一些附加收購，使我們的收入超過 40 億美元，大大提高了我們的息稅前利潤率的結構質量，同時也提高了穩定性和創造自身增長的能力，在當今經濟——宏觀經濟不太確定的時期。因此，我們覺得我們已經做了需要做的事情來提高我們的投資組合的品質。目前我們並不尋求大規模併購，因為我們已經完成了所需的轉型。正如 Curt 所說，我們現在只專注於附加功能。更重要的是，我們的成長模式確實每天都在產生效益。我們正在推動 AM 和 AFP 的大量創新和成長，創造我們自己的成長。我們確保從這些收購中獲得良好的投資回報，這些收購是我們透過與它們的收入協同效應實現的大量成長。

We'll go now from Robert Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們現在請高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特 (Robert Koort) 發言。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more detail around the tires market and Crystex. It does seem like maybe some of the tire manufacturers, a few other chemical companies in that space have sounded a little bit more somber. Can you give us a sense of what you're seeing on sell-through you think there versus maybe the destocking issue you talked about?

我想知道您是否可以更詳細地談談輪胎市場和 Crystex。看起來，一些輪胎製造商和該領域的其他一些化學公司的聲音聽起來可能有點嚴肅。您能否向我們介紹一下您所看到的銷售情況以及您談到的去庫存問題？

Bob, it's good to hear from you. So yes, we see the primary demand situation in tires similar, which is it's relatively slow. It's important to keep in mind that tire sales are also about 75% replacement. So they are relatively stable as well when you think about it over time in macroeconomic uncertainty. But that market isn't growing that fast. We've been benefiting from a lot of growth above market, things like our tire resins, and making sure we align to the right customers in China, who are doing more of the consolidating of the other tire companies and picking up some growth from that. More importantly, we are in a great position right now with launching our new Cure Pro product from our new Crystex technology into the marketplace. It's being very well received, and it brings significantly better performance than the products that are currently on the market, including our own, by helping tire companies improve mixing efficiency anywhere from 15 to 20-plus percent. So right now, when you're trying to manage costs and be very efficient in our customer base, this is a highly valuable product and we expect to see good growth from it, leveraging that fixed cost that we have as a headwind this year, turning that into leverage earnings growth next year. But yes, the overall market is going slow. We don't see it any differently. I would note, we're more connected to commercial tires and commercial demand, so that's actually been quite attractive, especially in North America.

鮑勃，很高興收到你的來信。是的，我們看到輪胎的主要需求情況類似，即相對較慢。重要的是要記住，輪胎銷售中也有約 75% 是替換品。因此，從宏觀經濟不確定性的角度來看，它們也相對穩定。但該市場的成長速度並沒有那麼快。我們受益於高於市場的大量成長，例如我們的輪胎樹脂，並確保我們與中國合適的客戶保持一致，他們正在對其他輪胎公司進行更多的整合，並從中獲得一些成長。更重要的是，我們現在處於有利地位，可以向市場推出採用新 Crystex 技術的全新 Cure Pro 產品。它受到了廣泛好評，其性能比目前市場上的產品（包括我們自己的產品）要好得多，可以幫助輪胎公司將混合效率提高 15% 到 20% 以上。因此現在，當您試圖管理成本並在我們的客戶群中非常高效時，這是一款非常有價值的產品，我們預計它會帶來良好的增長，利用今年的固定成本這一阻力，將其轉化為明年的盈利增長。但確實，整體市場正在緩慢發展。我們對此並沒有什麼不同的看法。我想指出的是，我們與商業輪胎和商業需求的連結更加緊密，因此這實際上非常有吸引力，尤其是在北美。

And then shifting over to the amines business. Have you noticed there's been some puts and takes around demand trends, I guess, in active ingredients and what's going on there? Has that business been relatively stable? Or what's sort of the outlook in the crop chemical part of that business?

然後轉向胺類業務。您是否注意到，活性成分的需求趨勢存在一些變化，具體情況如何？這項業務相對穩定嗎？或者該業務中農作物化學部分的前景如何？

So yes, the business has been stable. There's always been continued regulation in Europe around components of crop protection products or products in total, and we continue to have some degree of restrictions on some of those products we had in Europe, but it's just more of the same. That's been going on for several years. I wouldn't call it anything particularly new. I do have some upside that I think we didn't have when we bought Taminco. As we work to help them have a more global reach in their commercial execution capabilities, we've been able to help them create a lot more growth from products like their growth regulator products in Canada and North America by bringing better global reach to that business. So while we have these trends in Europe that have been with us for years, we're now accelerating growth in other marketplaces to sort of manage against that. And so the business overall net is very stable and very profitable.

是的，業務一直很穩定。歐洲一直對作物保護產品的成分或整體產品進行持續監管，我們繼續對歐洲的一些產品施加一定程度的限制，但這只是大致相同的情況。這種情況已經持續好幾年了。我不會稱其為任何特別新穎的東西。我確實有一些優勢，我認為這些優勢是我們收購 Taminco 時所沒有的。在我們努力幫助他們在商業執行能力方面擁有更全球化影響力的同時，我們也幫助他們透過為該業務帶來更好的全球影響力，從加拿大和北美的生長調節劑產品等產品中創造更多的成長。因此，儘管歐洲的這些趨勢已經持續多年，但我們現在正在加速其他市場的成長，以應對這種趨勢。因此，整體業務網絡非常穩定且利潤豐厚。

We'll now move on to our next question from Aleksey Yefremov with Nomura Instinet.

現在我們來回答野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫 (Aleksey Yefremov) 提出的下一個問題。

Your preliminary thoughts on 2019 EPS, does this growth rate include any buybacks?

您對 2019 年每股盈餘的初步看法是，這個成長率是否包括任何回購？

EPS growth rate would include the buyback plans that we have, yes.

是的，每股收益成長率將包括我們的回購計畫。

Got it, understood. And Mark, on Tritan, following the expansion, I guess, your growth here is progressing really nicely. Do you have any thoughts on how soon you could sell out this expansion?

明白了，了解了。馬克，關於 Tritan，我想，隨著擴張，你們在這裡的發展進展得非常好。您是否考慮過多久才能售完這個擴充包？

Well, we doubled our capacity. So it's a very significant capital investment, which is why the growth headwinds this year are material relative to last year. So it's not going to fill out overnight, but it's a continued solid and very strong growth we're seeing across in -- the marketplace as consumer durables now riding on this medical application environment in a variety of new applications. It's sort of 3, 4 years to fill it out.

嗯，我們的容量增加了一倍。因此，這是一項非常重要的資本投資，這就是為什麼今年的成長阻力相對於去年而言更大。因此，它不會在一夜之間完成，但我們看到的是持續穩健且強勁的成長——耐用消費品市場現在在各種新應用中依賴這種醫療應用環境。填寫完畢大概需要 3 到 4 年的時間。

We'll now take our next question from Jim Sheehan with SunTrust.

我們現在來回答 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan 提出的下一個問題。

Regarding the trade dispute with China, can you talk about why you are optimistic this issue will be resolved in 2019?

關於與中國的貿易爭端，您能談談為什麼您對這個問題將在2019年解決持樂觀態度嗎？

Well, first of all, we're not trying to predict when the trade issue gets resolved. That's at a much higher level than my pay grade. But what we're saying is like all companies, there are mitigating actions you can take to sort of minimize your exposure to some of these trade issues. We're a multinational company. We have assets around the world not just in the U.S. and so we have options we can work on to mitigate that exposure in Fibers and in other products as well.

首先，我們並不是想預測貿易問題何時能夠解決。這比我的薪資等級高得多。但我們要說的是，就像所有公司一樣，你可以採取一些緩解措施，以盡量減少對這些貿易問題的影響。我們是一家跨國公司。我們的資產遍布全球，不僅在美國，因此我們可以採取一些措施來減輕纖維和其他產品的風險。

And Can you update us on your excess ethylene position?

您能向我們通報一下您的過剩乙烯庫存狀況嗎？

Sure. So we continue to sort of doing great work in mitigating our exposure to the ethylene market. As we mentioned in the last call, there are 2 different things we're doing. So for the back half of this year, we significantly reduced the amount of ethylene we're selling by reconfiguring how we run our crackers. The shutdowns that we had, and particularly the unplanned shutdown that we're forced to do by our industrial gas supplier in the second quarter, allowed us to accumulate quite a bit of propylene in inventory. So that allows us to run our crackers in a different way in the back half of this year, minimizing ethylene production that comes out a bit less propylene and storing a bit of ethylene. And so that takes us pretty much out of the ethylene market for the back half of this year. That's not sustainable, which is why we're making the RGP investment to dramatically reconfigure our cracker and give it more flexibility to reduce the amount of ethylene we're producing. So as you look at next year and how this investment will allow us to operate, we can reduce our ethylene production by about 80% relative to normal, and that allows us to significantly reduce our exposure there. The RGP investment also produces more propylene from the production process as well as reducing the ethylene. And then the feed slate changes pretty significantly in how we're feeding our crackers. So our propane purchases dropped in half. Our ethane purchases are about 20% less. We're buying about 150,000 tons of RGP to get this result. And so what we've done is shift significantly our propylene to propane spread volatility towards PGP to RGP, which is much more stable if you look at history and allows us to significantly reduce our sort of olefin volatility exposure in the next year and retain flexibility. If it gets very attractive, we can switch back and take advantage of that. This is a $20 million investment with a payback in less than a year, so it's just a great investment opportunity for us.

當然。因此，我們將繼續努力減少對乙烯市場的曝險。正如我們在上次通話中提到的，我們正在做兩件不同的事情。因此，今年下半年，我們透過重新配置裂解裝置的運作方式，大幅減少了乙烯的銷售量。我們的停工，特別是第二季工業氣體供應商強迫我們進行的計劃外停工，使我們累積了相當多的丙烯庫存。這樣，我們就可以在今年下半年以不同的方式運行裂解裝置，最大限度地減少乙烯產量，減少丙烯產量，並儲存少量乙烯。因此，今年下半年我們基本上已經退出乙烯市場了。這是不可持續的，這就是為什麼我們要進行 RGP 投資，徹底改造我們的裂解裝置，使其更靈活，以減少我們生產的乙烯數量。因此，展望明年以及這項投資將如何讓我們運作時，我們可以將乙烯產量相對於正常水平減少約 80%，這使我們能夠顯著減少在那裡的風險敞口。RGP 投資還可以從生產過程中生產更多的丙烯，並減少乙烯的產生。然後，我們給餅乾餵料的方式發生了很大變化。因此我們的丙烷購買量下降了一半。我們的乙烷採購量減少了約20%。為了達到這一效果，我們購買了約 15 萬噸 RGP。因此，我們所做的就是將丙烯與丙烷價差波動性大幅轉向 PGP 與 RGP，如果從歷史來看，這種轉變更加穩定，並使我們能夠在明年大幅降低烯烴波動風險，並保持靈活性。如果它變得非常有吸引力，我們可以轉回來並利用它。這是一項 2000 萬美元的投資，不到一年就能收回成本，因此對我們來說，這是一個很好的投資機會。

We'll now take our next question from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們現在來回答摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas 提出的下一個問題。

Your SG&A costs are now in the mid-170s. And in the first half of the year, they were in the mid-180s. Is the decrease a one-off item? Or is SG&A at a different and lower level? And then secondly, in Additives & Functional Products, if you X out the solar comparisons, what was the volume growth in the quarter?

您的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 目前約為 170 美元左右。而在今年上半年，這一數字則達到了 180 多美元。減少是一次性項目嗎？或銷售、一般及行政費用處於不同的較低水準？其次，在添加劑和功能產品中，如果您將太陽能進行比較，那麼本季的銷售成長是多少？

So Jeff on the SG&A, I think maybe the way I'd answer that is let me just talk about growth investment. We are seeing growth investments during the course of this year. You see that in SG&A and R&D. That's all a part of our plan of building capabilities, particularly application development activities. So over time, you actually should expect SG&A and R&D to increase kind of throughout the year. Quarter-to-quarter, there can be variables that change SG&A. You saw some of that in the third quarter. I'd also say that with the current economic environment, maybe we tightened up our SG&A a little bit more in the third quarter. So you should see SG&A growing over time. Third quarter was just some variability. And then just let me just close out and remind us our SG&A and R&D is still one of the lowest in the industry as a percentage of sales.

所以 Jeff 談到銷售、一般和行政費用時，我想我回答這個問題的方式可能是讓我只談論成長投資。我們在今年看到了成長投資。您可以在銷售、一般及行政開支和研發費用中看到這一點。這都是我們能力建設計劃的一部分，特別是應用程式開發活動。因此，隨著時間的推移，你實際上應該預期銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用將在全年增加。每個季度，銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 都會有所變動。您在第三季看到了一些這樣的情況。我還想說，在當前的經濟環境下，我們可能在第三季進一步收緊銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。因此，您應該會看到銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 隨著時間的推移而成長。第三季只是有些變化。最後，請容許我提醒我們，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用佔銷售額的比例仍然是業內最低的之一。

And part of what I like about our strategy and our continued discipline about protecting shareholder value is how we make sure we're getting good return on every dollar, not just in the SG&A, on the R&D. We have made tremendous success in repurposing or refocusing the R&D resources. So within our spend, we've doubled the amount of people working on application development, reducing what we're working on, on some process elements that weren't as critical in creating value for shareholders. And so I think we have a great track record of being disciplined. But overall for the year, you're still going to see about a $50 million headwind in growth cost on a full year basis. $30-plus million of that is in the manufacturing costs, and about $20 million in the SG&A and R&D. But we do have some productivity offsetting the net spend that you're going to see show up on the P&L.

我喜歡我們的策略和持續保護股東價值的紀律，部分原因在於我們如何確保每一美元都能獲得良好的回報，而不僅僅是銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用。我們在重新利用或重新集中研發資源方面取得了巨大的成功。因此，在我們的支出範圍內，我們將從事應用程式開發的人員數量增加了一倍，減少了我們正在進行的一些工作，以及一些對為股東創造價值並不那麼重要的流程元素。所以我認為我們在嚴守紀律方面有著良好的記錄。但總體而言，全年成長成本仍將面臨約 5,000 萬美元的阻力。其中 3,000 多萬美元用於製造成本，約 2,000 萬美元用於銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用。但我們確實有一些生產力可以抵消您將在損益表中看到的淨支出。

And on the AFP issue, if you X out the solar comparison, what would have been your volume growth in that quarter?

關於 AFP 問題，如果您將太陽能進行比較，那麼該季度的銷售成長會是多少？

I'd roughly call it half and half, Jeff. So about half of the 14% volume growth rate last year was the solar performance. So when you think about that and back that out of the results we had this year, you're talking sort of 8% volume growth year-over-year in AFP and everything else. So it's a strong story of continued growth in that business.

我大致稱之為一半一半，傑夫。因此，去年 14% 的銷售成長率中約有一半來自太陽能。因此，當您考慮到這一點，並將其與今年的業績進行比較時，您會發現 AFP 和其他所有業務的銷量同比增長了 8%。因此，這是該業務持續成長的一個強勁故事。

We'll now take the next question from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

我們現在來回答 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, when you think about '19, I know it's a little bit early to give specific guidance by segment. But can you maybe gauge how much of the growth will come from your specialty businesses, they were really the key drivers this year, and relative to the other segment?

馬克，當你想到 19 年時，我知道現在就按細分市場給出具體指導還為時過早。但是，您能否估計出有多少成長將來自您的專業業務，相對於其他部門而言，它們確實是今年的關鍵驅動力？

Yes, sure, Mike. So as I said in the prepared remarks, the specialty businesses, which is 70% of earnings and we're driving to be a higher percentage of earnings, will continue to be the horses that drive forward and build our earnings growth next year. So we will continue to see good growth in AFP and strong in AM. And I think Fibers will stabilize. CI, with the investments we're making in RGP, will have the opportunity to be a little bit better next year than this. But I think it's way early to call any of these items. But I do think overall, we're driving towards a pretty solid growth. I'd also sort of remind you not to overly focus on the back half of this year on some of the dynamics that sort of feed into how we go towards next year. You've got a lot of destocking going on as we expect some of that in pockets in AFP and maybe a little bit in AM. You've got prices catching up to raws through the back half of this year and some of this isolated trade issues around Fibers that on a full year basis next year really isn't much headwind because now China tow is just so small. And importantly, a tough comp in '17 to '18 that we'll now put behind us. So overall, we feel like we're in a really good position to drive volume growth in the specialties, leverage all the fixed cost investments that we've made and generate a lot of free cash flow and even on the price front, to raws if they stabilize as I expect they will in the environment we're in. That doesn't become a headwind they're chasing all year like we did this year. And that's not a drag next year.

是的，當然，麥克。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，專業業務佔收益的 70%，我們正在努力提高收益的佔比，這將繼續成為推動我們前進並實現明年收益增長的動力。因此，我們將繼續看到 AFP 的良好成長和 AM 的強勁成長。我認為 Fibers 將會穩定下來。憑藉我們在 RGP 上進行的投資，CI 明年的表現將有機會比今年更好。但我認為現在宣布這些項目還為時過早。但我確實認為，總體而言，我們正在實現相當穩健的成長。我還要提醒大家，不要過度專注於今年下半年的一些動態，這些動態將影響我們如何邁向明年。正如我們所預期的那樣，你們正在進行大量的去庫存化，其中一些發生在 AFP 地區，也許還有一點發生在 AM 地區。今年下半年，價格已經趕上了原材料的價格，而纖維方面的一些孤立貿易問題從明年全年來看，實際上並沒有太大的阻力，因為現在中國的纖維產量非常小。重要的是，2017 年至 2018 年的艱難競爭現在已經被拋在身後。因此，總體而言，我們覺得自己處於一個非常有利的位置，可以推動特種產品的銷量增長，利用我們所做的所有固定成本投資，並產生大量的自由現金流，甚至在價格方面，如果原料價格穩定下來，正如我預期的那樣，在我們所處的環境中，原料價格也會穩定下來。這不會像我們今年一樣成為他們全年追逐的逆風。這對於明年來說並不會造成任何拖累。

Great. And a quick follow-up on Fibers. How big is the specialty fibers business? And how much of that segment do you think you can divert over time? And maybe remind us, what are the end markets that the specialty fibers are penetrating and growing in?

偉大的。並快速跟進 Fibers。特種纖維業務規模有多大？您認為隨著時間的推移，您可以轉移多少這一部分？也許提醒我們，特種纖維正在滲透和成長的終端市場有哪些？

So the Fibers growth is -- repurposing this business to become a specialty business again is just a great story, and we're really excited about it. The key markets are textiles and nonwovens. We have a real opportunity here with the change in sustainability environmental trends about products that are certainly more environmentally friendly. So the timing couldn't be better for us to take advantage of that trend. So in Naia, our acetate yarn, it's a biopolymer made from sustainable certified forests. And we've made some investments to materially improve its performance in the fashion industry, so you're talking about fast fashion and luxury fashion, womenswear applications. It's been apparel applications that's where we're going with those textiles, where we have a product that feels like silk at a much cheaper price, has better breathability by far than some of the other alternatives in the marketplace and is a biopolymer that can be biodegradable. So for the fashion industry, especially the millennials who are driving a lot of these decisions today, this is very exciting to them. And I was just at the largest textile show in Paris a couple weeks ago in a meeting with both textile mills and brands, and it was just amazing to see how excited they were about their story. And it all focused on sustainability and how we can sort of help them improve their position in the marketplace with it. So that's going great. The same story in nonwovens, where a lot of nonwoven things like facial wipes, baby wipes, things like that, are trying to improve their sustainable position as well with biopolymers and biodegradability that we can offer up with our products. So 30% growth rate, even though it's a small part of the overall Fibers business today. We're making great progress. Now it's up to about 15% of the segment revenue. And the margins are good. They're certainly not tow margins, but they're attractive margins, and we're excited about where we're going with this business.

因此，纖維業務​​的成長——將這項業務重新定位為專業業務是一個偉大的故事，我們對此感到非常興奮。主要市場為紡織品和不織布。隨著永續環境趨勢的改變，我們面臨著一個真正的機會，可以生產出更環保的產品。因此，現在是我們利用這一趨勢的最佳時機。因此，我們的醋酸纖維紗 Naia 是一種由永續認證森林製成的生物聚合物。我們進行了一些投資，以實質地提高其在時尚產業的表現，所以你談論的是快時尚和奢侈時尚、女裝應用。我們的紡織品一直致力於服裝應用，我們的產品感覺像絲綢，但價格便宜得多，透氣性比市場上其他一些替代品更好，而且是一種可生物降解的生物聚合物。因此，對於時尚產業，尤其是當今推動許多此類決策的千禧世代來說，這對他們來說非常令人興奮。幾週前，我剛參加了在巴黎舉辦的最大的紡織品展覽會，與紡織廠和品牌進行了會面，看到他們對自己的故事如此興奮，我感到非常驚訝。這一切都集中在永續性上，以及我們如何幫助他們提高在市場上的地位。一切進展順利。不織布產業也有同樣的情況，許多不織布製品，例如面巾、嬰兒濕紙巾等，都在嘗試利用我們產品中提供的生物聚合物和生物降解性來提高其永續發展地位。儘管它只是目前整體纖維業務的一小部分，但成長率卻達到 30%。我們正在取得巨大進步。現在它已占到該部門收入的15%左右。而且利潤率也不錯。雖然利潤率肯定不高，但已經很誘人了，而且我們對這項業務的發展方向感到很興奮。

We'll now move on to our next question from John Roberts with UBS.

我們現在來回答瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲提出的下一個問題。

A quick question on Tritan and then on Fibers. I've always thought about Tritan's strength was in the high-clarity applications. Is it useful to think about Tritan sales, how much is high clarity versus how much are other properties that's driving the use of Tritan?

關於 Tritan 和 Fibers 的一個快速問題。我一直認為 Tritan 的優點在於高清晰度應用。考慮一下 Tritan 的銷售是否有用？高清晰度佔了多大比重，而其他屬性又佔了多大比重，這些屬性推動了 Tritan 的使用？

Historically, you're absolutely right. The value proposition we've had historically and continues in consumer durables and some medical applications is high clarity parts, very strong, high strength through requirements, chemical resistance requirements and BPA-free. And that's been a core part of it. But the story we told you today is actually opening up an entirely new space that is more about compounding Tritan into opaque applications. Obviously, that's not been our historical footprint, but we're now expanding into opening up that entire market to us as well through Tritan and our new Treva cellulose plastic launch. So the housings we're replacing are all opaque. It's -- the housings have all these medical devices. You're typically compounding it with impact modifiers and other performance things or even with ABS or something like -- something that adds additional dimensional stability. But it's a whole new addressable market for us going forward.

從歷史上看，你是完全正確的。我們過去和現在在耐用消費品和一些醫療應用中的價值主張是高透明度部件、非常堅固、高強度要求、耐化學性要求和不含 BPA。這是其中的核心部分。但我們今天向您講述的故事實際上開闢了一個全新的領域，更多的是將 Tritan 複合到不透明的應用中。顯然，這不是我們的歷史足跡，但我們現在正在透過 Tritan 和新推出的 Treva 纖維素塑料向我們開放整個市場。因此，我們要更換的外殼都是不透明的。這些外殼裡裝有所有這些醫療設備。您通常會將其與抗衝改質劑和其他性能材料混合，甚至與 ABS 或類似材料混合——以增加額外的尺寸穩定性。但這對我們來說是一個全新的潛在市場。

And then on Fibers, margins I think are still high around, say, tow than they are in the new applications. So should we expect earnings growth to lag volume growth in the Fibers segment?

就纖維而言，我認為利潤率仍然很高，比如說，比新應用的利潤率更高。那麼，我們是否應該預期纖維部門的獲利成長將落後於銷售成長？

Well, I mean, certainly, margins are different, but I'd still say they're reasonably attractive, more like the company average. And in places, it's better than that. It's a relative growth rate issue. But the reality is to drive overall earnings growth as we push forward, it's possible because you have -- tow is only going down 2% a year at this stage going forward, and you've got 30% growth or 20% growth in certain applications. The math is still going to work to get you sort of net earnings growth on this, which is why we're repurposing this capacity to support this growth as we go forward. But it's still going to take a little time. 2019 is about stability and then moving towards growth as we go into '20.

嗯，我的意思是，利潤率當然不同，但我仍然認為它們相當有吸引力，更接近公司的平均水平。在某些地方，情況甚至比這更好。這是一個相對成長率的問題。但現實情況是，隨著我們不斷前進，推動整體獲利成長是可能的，因為在這個階段，拖車每年僅下降 2%，而在某些應用領域則實現了 30% 或 20% 的成長。透過數學計算，我們仍然可以獲得某種形式的淨收益成長，這就是為什麼我們要重新利用這種能力來支持未來的成長。但這仍然需要一點時間。2019 年是穩定年，進入 2020 年，我們將邁向成長年。

We'll hear now from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們現在來聽聽 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander 的演講。

Two quick clarifications. You gave in the prepared remarks a little bit of a laundry list of items that helped you on the free cash flow side. As we think about the bridge for next year, do you have similar items to offset? Or will the free cash flow conversion be a little bit lower? And secondly, I guess, 2 threads today, and I just wondered if you could parse a little bit how you're thinking about them. One seems to be that apart from some soft areas of destocking, there is -- your demand's overall okay, and the other part is that the portfolio is more resilient. Are you implying that even given what we've already seen in terms of -- or what you're seeing with customer conversations, we would have seen in the back half of the year more lumpiness without the efforts you've made in the last few years? Or do you think it's more just that demand is actually fairly benign and we haven't really stress tested the -- the new portfolio mix yet?

兩個簡短的澄清。您在準備好的評論中給出了一份清單，其中列出了在自由現金流方面對您有幫助的項目。當我們考慮明年的橋樑時，您是否有類似的項目需要抵消？或者自由現金流轉換率會稍微低一點嗎？其次，我想，今天有 2 個主題，我只是想知道您是否可以稍微分析一下您是如何看待它們的。一方面，除了去庫存的一些疲軟領域外，你的需求總體上是可以的；另一方面，投資組合更具彈性。您是否暗示，即使考慮到我們已經看到的情況 - 或者您在客戶對話中看到的情況，如果沒有您在過去幾年中所做的努力，我們在今年下半年就會看到更多的不平衡？或者您認為這更多的是因為需求實際上相當溫和，而且我們還沒有對新的投資組合進行壓力測試？

Right. So let me start with the free cash flow. Maybe a way to bring this to life a little bit, let's just kind of bridge fourth quarter a little bit. If you remember, fourth quarter of last year, we generated $435 million of free cash flow. In the fourth quarter, we're going to have an insurance payment that we've already received as well as we're going to have $50 million of lower CapEx. So in order to achieve our $1.1 billion of free cash flow, we are only needing now some $60 million plus of additional free cash flow generation over last year. And those are the types of working capital dynamics that we're working through. As you think about conversion next year, I think we'll still have strong conversion of earnings next year. We might have CapEx maybe a little less than it is this year. We won't have the net $25 million headwind of the insurance. And then it's going to come down to how well working capital evolves. If you assume working capital -- raw material cost normalize, that means you won't have the working capital challenges that you had this year. So I see a path where we're going to continue to have good conversion. I don't see that conversion rate coming down.

正確的。那麼讓我先從自由現金流開始。也許有一種方法可以讓這個變得生動一點，讓我們稍微銜接一下第四季。如果你還記得的話，去年第四季度，我們產生了 4.35 億美元的自由現金流。在第四季度，我們將收到一筆保險金，資本支出將減少 5,000 萬美元。因此，為了實現 11 億美元的自由現金流，我們現在只需要比去年增加約 6,000 萬美元以上的額外自由現金流。這些就是我們正在研究的營運資本動態類型。當您考慮明年的轉換時，我認為明年我們的獲利轉換仍然會很強勁。我們的資本支出可能比今年少一點。我們不會面臨保險帶來的淨 2500 萬美元逆風。然後，這將取決於營運資本的演變。如果您假設營運資金——原材料成本正常化，這意味著您將不會面臨今年所面臨的營運資金挑戰。因此，我看到了一條我們將繼續實現良好轉變的道路。我不認為轉換率會下降。

And on the second question, sequentially, I think it's probably better to go at it because the '17 comp is so tough in some of the businesses, especially AFP and Fibers. But the trends we see sequentially in demand are relatively stable. So we continue to see solid growth in the specialties. You're always going to see normal seasonality as you go into the fourth quarter. And then at the AM level, clearly, we had strong volume growth in AFP. When you adjust for the solar fills, you had strong volume growth. I think in chemical intermediates, there's always a certain amount of volatility. We saw some demand come off in the third quarter. Some of that was just seasonal in ag and a few others -- shutdown dynamics of customers, nothing sort of concerning. But as you sort of go into the fourth quarter with this inflation in raw material environment that we've been in through the third quarter, it's natural to expect destocking, especially in places where demand has moderated a bit like the transportation sector, as we've highlighted in sort of coatings and tires or some trade-related caution there. So I think it's really important we don't overreact to what's going on in the fourth quarter right now. From what we see, it appears to be mostly destocking. It's always hard to know exactly what's going on with primary demand, especially in a fourth quarter when there's no normal destocking anyway. And so we're not in a position where we're sitting here saying that we see a primary demand problem out there in the marketplaces outside of the obvious sort of stuff going on in autos. And it's really important to remind you all about autos in Eastman and the way that works. Overall, we've said our exposure in transportation is about half OEM, half sort of refinish replacement, but it's important to break that down in a couple ways. First is on the AM side, it is much more OEM related, but that is where we have so many innovative products in interlayers like heads-up display and acoustics as well as paint protection films, allowing us to grow much faster than underlying market, which we demonstrated already in the third quarter and expect that to continue into the fourth. And then on the AFP side, about 2/3 of that business is more sort of refinish replacement when you think about tires and where our products are going into automotive coatings. So quite a bit of stability in those kind of markets in this kind of time frame. And even within these markets, we target different applications. So for example, in China, while the overall auto sales are down, we're actually seeing good growth because we're more aligned with luxury cars than the smaller cars that don't have the tax incentives anymore. And so we're still seeing good growth in our performance films business and some of our high-value interlayers that go into more luxury cars that are actually still growing in China. So we have to be very careful not to sort of apply broadbrush on some of these things to make sure you understand I think we're in a pretty solid position.

關於第二個問題，按順序來說，我認為最好還是繼續討論，因為 2017 年某些業務的競爭非常激烈，尤其是 AFP 和 Fibers。但我們觀察到的需求趨勢相對穩定。因此，我們繼續看到專業領域的穩健成長。進入第四季時，你總是會看見正常的季節性現象。然後在 AM 級別，顯然，我們的 AFP 銷量增長強勁。當你調整太陽能填充量時，你會發現體積強勁成長。我認為化學中間體總是具有一定程度的波動性。我們發現第三季的需求有所下降。其中一些只是農業的季節性因素，還有一些其他因素——客戶停工動態，沒有什麼好擔心的。但是，隨著進入第四季度，原材料環境出現通膨，就像我們在第三季度所經歷的那樣，預計會出現去庫存現象，特別是在需求有所放緩的領域，例如運輸業，正如我們在塗料和輪胎領域或一些與貿易相關的謹慎情緒中所強調的那樣。因此我認為，我們現在不要對第四季發生的事情反應過度，這一點非常重要。從我們所看到的情況來看，這似乎主要是去庫存化。總是很難確切地知道主要需求到底發生了什麼，特別是在第四季度，因為那時還沒有出現正常的去庫存現象。因此，我們並不是坐在這裡說，除了汽車產業明顯的問題之外，市場上還有主要的需求問題。提醒大家有關伊士曼汽車及其運作方式的知識非常重要。總體而言，我們說過，我們在運輸領域的業務大約一半是原始設備製造商 (OEM)，一半是修補更換，但有必要以幾種方式來分解這一點。首先是 AM 方面，它與 OEM 的關係更為密切，但我們在中間層方面擁有許多創新產品，例如平視顯示器和音響以及油漆保護膜，這使得我們的增長速度遠遠快於基礎市場，這一點我們在第三季度已經得到證明，預計這種趨勢將持續到第四季度。然後從 AFP 方面來看，如果考慮到輪胎以及我們的產品用於汽車塗料的情況，大約 2/3 的業務更多的是修補替換。因此，在這種時間範圍內，這類市場相當穩定。即使在這些市場中，我們也針對不同的應用。例如，在中國，雖然整體汽車銷售下降，但我們實際上看到了良好的成長，因為我們更傾向於豪華車，而不是不再享受稅收優惠的小型車。因此，我們的高性能薄膜業務和一些用於更多豪華汽車的高價值中間膜業務仍然保持良好的成長勢頭，而這些業務在中國實際上仍在成長。因此，我們必須非常小心，不要對這些事情採取籠統的態度，以確保您理解我認為我們處於相當穩固的地位。

We'll take our next question from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們將回答 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的 Matthew Blair 提出的下一個問題。

Do you have any more color on the 15% effective tax rate in the quarter? It seemed a little low. And then your guidance for full year 2018 I think implies that Q4 tax should step up. Could you explain why that is?

您對本季 15% 的實際稅率還有什麼進一步的了解嗎？看起來有點低。那麼，我認為您對 2018 年全年的指導意味著第四季度的稅收應該會增加。你能解釋為什麼會這樣嗎？

Sure. That's just the seasonality of the effective tax rate. Earlier this year, we thought we'd be in the 18% to 20% range. Due to -- as we continue to evaluate the various moving parts of our effective tax rate, it actually improved to 17% for the year. What you see in the third quarter is just a catch-up to that 17% rate on a year-to-date basis. But for the full year of '18, it'll be around 17%. And I can assure you, we're working towards that rate next year.

當然。這只是有效稅率的季節性。今年早些時候，我們認為這一比例將在 18% 至 20% 之間。由於——隨著我們繼續評估有效稅率的各個變動部分，今年的有效稅率實際上提高了 17%。第三季的成長率只不過是趕上了年初至今的 17% 的成長率。但就 2018 年全年而言，這一比例將在 17% 左右。我可以向你們保證，我們明年將努力實現這個目標。

Got it. And then so if I back out the tax benefit to EPS that you've received in 2018, which I think is about 4%, it seems like your 8% to 12% EPS growth target going forward is actually a little bit better than what you're likely to put up this year. Which, I don't know, I guess, that's a little surprising just considering all the talk about the slower growth in the back half of this year. So is that the right interpretation? Is there anything else that we should be taking into account?

知道了。那麼，如果我取消您在 2018 年獲得的 EPS 稅收優惠（我認為約為 4%），那麼您未來 8% 至 12% 的 EPS 成長目標實際上會比您今年可能實現的目標要好一些。我不知道，但考慮到今年下半年經濟成長放緩的討論，這確實有點令人驚訝。那麼這是正確的解釋嗎？還有什麼我們應該考慮的嗎？

So no. When I think about 2018, it's just there's some moving parts between EBIT and tax rate. So some of our year-over-year growth this year is improvement in tax rate, a little bit better than we thought last year. But when you go to '19, the tax rate should not be a headwind or a tailwind. It's all around the underlying performance of the business that Mark already talked about.

所以不。當我想到 2018 年時，我發現息稅前利潤和稅率之間有些變動。因此，我們今年的年成長部分來自於稅率的提高，比我們去年預想的要好一些。但當你進入 19 年時，稅率不應該變成逆風或順風。這一切都與馬克已經談到的業務的基本表現有關。

We'll take our final question from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們將回答 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy 提出的最後一個問題。

Just wanted to come back to the capital expenditure profile. It seems to me you've completed quite a few projects over the last 18 months, Tritan most notably, but Crystex and other product lines. As I listen to Curt's comments about CapEx, it seems like you could trend down slightly in 2019. So is it the case that you've got enough capacity across the portfolio at this point? Or are there other prospective growth projects that you plan to layer in over the next several quarters?

只是想回到資本支出概況。在我看來，在過去的 18 個月裡，您已經完成了不少項目，最著名的是 Tritan，還有 Crystex 和其他產品線。當我聽到 Curt 對資本支出的評論時，似乎 2019 年的趨勢可能會略有下降。那麼，目前您的整個投資組合的產能是否足夠了？或者您計劃在未來幾季內陸續推出其他有成長潛力的項目？

^ Yes. I think, Kevin, your intuition is correct. We do expect slightly lower capital expenditures in 2019 versus '18. Part of that -- just keep in mind, some of the capital expenditures were for the coal gas recovery. So when you think about maintenance CapEx, it's in that $300 million, $350 million. We said at Innovation Day it could be anywhere from $500 million to $600 million going into '19 and probably be more towards the low end of that range.

^ 是的。我認為，凱文，你的直覺是對的。我們確實預計 2019 年的資本支出將比 2018 年略有下降。其中一部分——請記住，部分資本支出用於瓦斯回收。因此，當您考慮維護資本支出時，它就在 3 億美元、3.5 億美元之中。我們在創新日上表示，到 2019 年，這一數字可能會在 5 億美元到 6 億美元之間，甚至可能更接近該範圍的低端。

I think it also connects back to sort of the fixed cost leverage comment. As you think about next year, under the assumption the world's growing, we'll have continued variable margin growth next year and a very different fixed cost situation, where, this year, if you think about between the $50 million of growth investment costs and if you look at the sort of planned and unplanned operational headwinds we had this year, there's another $50 million. So you've got $100 million of headwind against variable margin in growing EBIT in '18 versus '17. And if you think about how that translates to '19, some of that annualizes so netted down to sort of $75 million of tailwind, if you will, of variable margins growing in how you have much less headwind in '19 to '18. So there's considerable leverage here, which feeds into our view about how we can continue growing earnings into '19 as we don't have another step up of these costs.

我認為它也與固定成本槓桿評論有關。展望明年，假設世界經濟持續成長，明年我們的浮動利潤率將持續成長，固定成本情況也將大不相同。今年，如果考慮到 5,000 萬美元的成長投資成本，再加上我們今年遇到的計畫內和計畫外營運阻力，就會發現還有 5,000 萬美元。因此，與 2017 年相比，2018 年息稅前利潤成長面臨 1 億美元的不利因素，不利於浮動利潤率的成長。如果你考慮這對 19 年的影響，那麼其中一部分年化後淨額將達到 7500 萬美元，如果你願意的話，可變利潤率的增長是由於 19 年至 18 年逆風較小。因此，這裡存在著相當大的槓桿作用，這符合我們的觀點，即我們如何能夠在 2019 年繼續增加盈利，因為我們不會再增加這些成本。

Okay. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We hope you have a great day.

好的。再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們希望您度過愉快的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。