伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company First Quarter 2018 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's website, www.eastman.com.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學公司 2018 年第一季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這場電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.eastman.com 上現場直播。

We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Okay, thank you, Lauren, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are: Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Louis Reavis, Manager of Investor Relations.

好的，謝謝你，勞倫，大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：董事會主席兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官科特·埃斯佩蘭 (Curt Espeland) 和投資者關係經理路易斯·裡維斯 (Louis Reavis)。

Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's first quarter 2018 financial results news release, during this call and in the accompanying slides and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for 2017 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for first quarter 2018.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司 2018 年第一季財務業績新聞稿、本次電話會議及隨附幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括 2017 年提交的 10-K 表格和 2018 年第一季度提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core and unusual items and have been adjusted for the forecasted tax rate as of the end of interim periods. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items, are available in the first quarter 2018 financial results news release, which can be found on our website at www.eastman.com in the Investors section. Projections of future earnings exclude any non-core or unusual items and assume that the adjusted tax rate for first quarter 2018 will be the actual tax rate for the projected periods.

其次，本報告中提到的收益不包括某些非核心和非常規項目，並且已根據中期末的預測稅率進行了調整。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關披露的對賬，包括排除項目和調整項目的描述，均可在 2018 年第一季度財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.eastman.com 的“投資者”部分找到。未來收益預測不包括任何非核心或非常項目，並假設 2018 年第一季的調整後稅率將是預測期間的實際稅率。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Page 3. We're off to a compelling start to the year with strong first quarter results, which included revenue up over 13% and adjusted EPS up 22% year-over-year.

大家早安。我將從第 3 頁開始。我們今年開局強勁，第一季業績強勁，其中營收年增超過 13%，調整後每股收益較去年同期成長 22%。

Our results demonstrate the strength of our specialty portfolio as we delivered over 15% revenue growth combined in our 2 specialty segments, Advanced Materials and Additives & Functional Products. We continue to deliver strong volume growth of high-margin specialty product lines through execution of our innovation-driven growth model, particularly in AM and AFP. During the quarter, AM and AFP delivered greater than 7% volume growth combined year-over-year with earnings growth of more than 15%.

我們的業績證明了我們專業產品組合的實力，因為我們在兩個專業領域（先進材料和添加劑與功能產品）實現了超過 15% 的收入成長。我們透過實施創新驅動的成長模式，持續實現高利潤專業產品線（尤其是在 AM 和 AFP 領域）的強勁銷售成長。本季度，AM 和 AFP 的銷量年增超過 7%，獲利成長超過 15%。

Through innovation leadership in specialty markets, we continue to create our own growth. In a moment, I'll share 2 examples of what's fueling our progress and driving a significant increase in new business closes. I'm particularly proud of the quality of this corporate earnings growth coming primarily from our specialty businesses, which is sustainable over time.

透過在專業市場的創新領導，我們不斷創造自身的成長。稍後，我將分享兩個例子，說明推動我們進步並推動新業務大幅成長的因素。我尤其對公司獲利成長的品質感到自豪，這種成長主要來自我們的專業業務，並且能夠長期持續。

Moving next to the cost management front. We remain well on track with our corporate cost reduction efforts without sacrificing our long-term growth initiatives. Our cash flow in the quarter was consistent with our expectations. And we remain on track to deliver over $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2018, enabling an increasing dividend, deleveraging and an increasing rate of share repurchases.

接下來轉向成本管理方面。我們在降低企業成本方面仍進展順利，同時又不犧牲我們的長期成長計畫。本季的現金流與我們的預期一致。我們仍有望在 2018 年實現超過 11 億美元的自由現金流，從而實現股息增加、去槓桿化和股票回購率上升。

Beyond these great results, we have also been the recipient of numerous awards over the past several months, which highlight many of the qualities our stakeholders have come to expect from Eastman. We were named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the fifth consecutive year by Ethisphere for outstanding corporate ethics and corporate responsibility, characteristics highly valued by our employees, shareholders, communities and customers.

除了這些出色的成績之外，過去幾個月我們還獲得了無數獎項，這些獎項彰顯了我們的利害關係人對伊士曼的許多期望。我們連續第五年被道德村協會評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一，因為我們卓越的企業道德和企業責任，這些特質受到了我們的員工、股東、社區和客戶的高度重視。

We also earned the Military Friendly Employer designation by Victory Media for the second straight year, which recognizes exceptional hiring programs for transitioning service members, veterans and spouses. Finally, we were recognized by the EPA as an ENERGY STAR Partner of the Year, becoming the only chemical company to have achieved this recognition consecutively for 7 years, a win both for the environment and our cost structure.

我們也連續第二年榮獲 Victory Media 頒發的「軍人友善雇主」稱號，旨在表彰我們為退伍軍人、退伍軍人及其配偶提供的卓越招募計畫。最後，我們被美國環保署評為年度能源之星合作夥伴，成為唯一一家連續 7 年獲得此認可的化學公司，這對環境和我們的成本結構來說都是一個勝利。

Our first quarter results and the continued recognition we are receiving are a direct result of the great work being done by Eastman employees around the world. And I want to thank them for their outstanding contributions. These results also demonstrate that we can execute on the things we can control, from cost reductions to returning cash to stockholders to innovating throughout our enterprise.

我們第一季的業績以及我們持續獲得的認可直接歸功於全球伊士曼員工的出色工作。我要感謝他們所做的傑出貢獻。這些結果也表明，我們可以執行我們能夠控制的事情，從降低成本到向股東返還現金，再到整個企業的創新。

On Slide 4, we continue to upgrade the quality of our product mix by increasing revenue of high-margin specialty products through execution of our innovation-driven growth model. Our top innovation programs in AM and AFP are accelerating as more customers validate our innovative differentiated products, which is driving growth today and into the future. I'm pleased to report that we are on track to deliver more than $350 million in new business closes this year, which will be a record for the company and is more than 15% over last year's rate.

在投影片 4 中，我們透過執行創新驅動的成長模式來增加高利潤特色產品的收入，進而持續提升產品組合的品質。隨著越來越多的客戶驗證我們創新的差異化產品，我們在 AM 和 AFP 領域的頂級創新專案正在加速推進，這將推動我們當前和未來的成長。我很高興地報告，我們今年預計將實現超過 3.5 億美元的新業務，這將創下公司的歷史新高，比去年的成長速度高出 15% 以上。

Here are 2 of the many ways we're creating our growth and winning with customers. And we're also expanding beyond AM and AFP to include Fibers in how we drive innovation throughout the enterprise. So our first example is about Naia cellulosic yarn program. As we discussed at Innovation Day, repurposing our tow assets into a growth market is a top priority for us. Through the first quarter, we have seen great progress, from wins with a leader in the fast fashion industry in Asia to several high-end luxury brands. The sustainability drive in the fashion industry is strong. And designers want a product that has a better environmental footprint and better performance.

以下是我們創造成長並贏得客戶青睞的眾多方式中的兩種。我們也將擴展到 AM 和 AFP 之外，將 Fibers 納入我們推動整個企業創新的方式中。我們的第一個例子是關於 Naia 纖維素紗線計劃。正如我們在創新日所討論的那樣，將我們的拖車資產重新用於成長市場是我們的首要任務。透過第一季的努力，我們看到了巨大的進步，從與亞洲快時尚產業的領導者合作到與多個高端奢侈品牌的合作。時尚產業的永續發展動力強勁。設計師希望產品有更好的環境影響和更好的性能。

Naia delivers on this mandate on both fronts. As a biopolymer made from pulp from sustainable forests and manufactured in a responsible manner, we can make a significant improvement relative to viscose, which is unmatched by other products. And the softness, what they call hand of the product, is outstanding relative to anything else on the market. As a result, we were recently recognized as one of the top 10 textile innovations by FabricLink. And our business gross revenue here is accelerating through the first quarter and looks great going forward through the rest of this year. It's incredible to see our textile team leverage our new application development capability to relentlessly engage the market. The team is doing an outstanding job demonstrating our value proposition to the brands, enabling the mills to convert to our product.

Naia 在兩個方面都履行了這項使命。作為一種由永續森林紙漿製成並以負責任的方式生產的生物聚合物，我們可以相對於黏膠取得顯著的改進，這是其他產品無法比擬的。這款產品的柔軟度（即所謂的手感）與市場上的任何其他產品相比都非常出色。因此，我們最近被 FabricLink 評為十大紡織創新之一。我們這裡的業務總收入在第一季正在加速成長，並且今年剩餘時間的成長前景看好。令人難以置信的是，我們的紡織團隊利用我們新的應用程式開發能力堅持不懈地參與市場。團隊出色地向品牌展示了我們的價值主張，使工廠轉而使用我們的產品。

Another great example where we leverage a world-class technology platform through application development is our Aerafin amorphous polyolefins. The hygiene and packing markets are demanding lower-odor adhesives due to consumer health sensitivity and are in desperate need of productivity in their competitive markets. Our Aerafin product is delivering on both fronts. And we have realized several wins across the globe. We have leveraged our application development capability we built for tackifying resins to design a suite of differentiated Aerafin polyolefins that deliver superior performance in odor and enable broader operation window for the OEMs in applying the adhesives in their product, relative to the current metallocene polymers. Our growth across this amorphous polyolefin business has exceeded our expectations as we expect to double our Aerafin volume in 2018 relative to 2017. And as a result, we're expanding our capacity in Longview, Texas.

我們透過應用開發利用世界一流技術平台的另一個很好的例子是我們的 Aerafin 無定形聚烯烴。由於消費者對健康的敏感性，衛生和包裝市場需要低氣味黏合劑，並且在競爭激烈的市場中迫切需要提高生產力。我們的 Aerafin 產品在這兩方面都表現出色。我們已在全球範圍內取得了多場勝利。我們利用我們為增粘樹脂建立的應用開發能力，設計了一系列差異化的 Aerafin 聚烯烴，與目前的茂金屬聚合物相比，它們在氣味方面具有卓越的性能，並為原始設備製造商在其產品中應用粘合劑提供了更廣泛的操作窗口。我們在非晶態聚烯烴業務上的成長超出了我們的預期，我們預計 2018 年 Aerafin 產量將比 2017 年翻倍。因此，我們正在擴大位於德克薩斯州朗維尤的產能。

These 2 successes among many are a testament to our ability to leverage our innovation-driven growth model. Our world-class technology platforms provide the foundation for competitive advantage and sustainable growth, relentlessly engaging the market to create our own growth. Then we bring both elements together with our differentiated application development, which turns market complexity into sustainable value. Overall, I'm incredibly excited and proud of how our teams are driving innovation and winning with our customers.

這兩項成功證明了我們能夠充分利用創新驅動的成長模式。我們世界級的技術平台為競爭優勢和永續成長奠定了基礎，我們不斷參與市場，創造我們自己的成長。然後，我們將這兩個元素與差異化的應用程式開發結合在一起，將市場複雜性轉化為永續價值。總的來說，我對我們的團隊如何推動創新並與客戶一起贏得勝利感到無比興奮和自豪。

With that, I'll turn it over to Curt.

說完這些，我會把話題交給 Curt。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our corporate results on Slide 5. Sales revenue grew due to increases in all 4 business segments. We continue to do a nice job of driving growth in our more specialty businesses, which accounted for more than 70% of our top line growth in the quarter. And we executed well on the pricing front as we realized further positive pricing momentum in the quarter to offset the impact of higher raw material costs.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 5 上的公司業績開始介紹。由於 4 個業務部門的成長，銷售收入有所成長。我們繼續出色地推動專業業務的成長，這些業務佔本季營收成長的 70% 以上。我們在定價方面表現良好，因為我們在本季度實現了進一步的積極定價勢頭，以抵消原材料成本上漲的影響。

Adjusted EBIT grew due to increases in all 4 business segments with our specialty businesses accounting for more than 70% of our earnings growth in the quarter. And we are growing earnings while we're continuing to invest in growth for both the near term and long term. EBIT margins improved 20 basis points as we improved the quality of earnings through mix improvement with our double-digit growth in many of our innovative specialty products. Overall, earnings per share increased year-over-year by 22% with EBIT contributing about 17% of the growth.

調整後息稅前利潤的成長得益於所有 4 個業務部門的成長，其中專業業務佔本季獲利成長的 70% 以上。我們在不斷增加獲利的同時，也繼續為短期和長期的成長進行投資。由於我們透過產品組合改進提高了獲利質量，許多創新特色產品都實現了兩位數的成長，因此息稅前利潤率提高了 20 個基點。總體而言，每股盈餘年增 22%，其中息稅前利潤貢獻了約 17% 的成長。

Moving next to the segment results and starting with Advanced Materials on Slide 6, which delivered another impressive quarter, driven by our innovation initiatives. Sales increased due to improved product mix, resulting from double-digit growth of high-margin innovative products and a favorable shift in foreign currency exchange rates. In particular, we saw an acceleration in volume growth towards the end of the quarter. EBIT increased due to higher sales volume, improved product mix and a favorable shift in exchange rates, partially offset by higher costs associated with growth initiatives. Year-over-year, we expanded our EBIT margin 80 basis points to 20%.

接下來是分部業績，首先從幻燈片 6 上的先進材料開始，在我們的創新舉措的推動下，該部門又取得了令人印象深刻的季度業績。銷售額的成長得益於產品結構的改善，這得益於高利潤創新產品的兩位數成長以及外匯匯率的有利轉變。特別是，我們看到本季末銷售成長加速。息稅前利潤的成長是由於銷售量增加、產品組合改善以及匯率的有利轉變，但被成長計畫相關的成本增加部分抵銷。與去年同期相比，我們的息稅前利潤率提高了 80 個基點，達到 20%。

Looking at the full year. We expect to drive revenue growth from volume and mix in the mid-single digits and continue to get a further lift from price and currency. This robust revenue growth will enable us to deliver earnings growth near the upper end of our range of 7% to 10%, provided at our recent Innovation Day. Overall, these results continue Advanced Materials' track record of delivering strong performance by executing strategy of volume growth, mix improvement and fixed cost leverage.

放眼全年。我們預計銷售量和產品組合將推動營收成長達到中等個位數，並將繼續從價格和貨幣中獲得進一步的提升。強勁的收入成長將使我們能夠實現獲利成長，接近我們最近創新日提出的 7% 至 10% 的上限。總體而言，這些業績延續了先進材料透過實施產量成長、產品組合改進和固定成本槓桿策略來實現強勁業績的記錄。

Now to Additives & Functional Products on Slide 7, which had another outstanding quarter. Sales revenue increased 21% primarily due to higher sales volume throughout this segment. This impressive growth came from multiple sources. For example, improved market conditions and enhanced commercial execution in animal nutrition and care chemical products is driving growth above market growth rates and strong growth in tire additives due to innovation in our tire resins and superior operational reliability. We also made great progress improving our pricing on the strength of our value proposition to our customers. And a favorable shift in foreign currency exchange rates were also a benefit for the quarter.

現在就來看看幻燈片 7 上的添加劑和功能產品，該部門又度過了一個出色的季度。銷售收入成長 21%，主要由於該部門的銷售量增加。這一令人印象深刻的成長來自多個方面。例如，由於我們輪胎樹脂的創新和卓越的操作可靠性，動物營養和護理化學產品的市場條件改善和商業執行力增強，推動了高於市場成長率的成長和輪胎添加劑的強勁成長。我們也憑藉著對客戶的價值主張，在提高定價方面取得了巨大進展。外匯匯率的有利轉變也為本季帶來了好處。

As mentioned in our press release, certain products previously reported in the Chemical Intermediate segment are now reported in Additives & Functional Products due to alignment of production and growth strategies. For first quarter 2018, these product lines generated approximately $18 million in revenue with EBIT margin slightly above the segment average. And we'll have similar impact expected with the remaining quarters of 2018. EBIT in the quarter increased due to higher sales volume and higher selling prices, partially offset by higher costs associated with growth initiatives.

正如我們的新聞稿中所提到的，由於生產和成長策略的調整，以前在化學中間體部門報告的某些產品現在在添加劑和功能產品部門報告。2018 年第一季度，這些產品線創造了約 1,800 萬美元的收入，息稅前利潤率略高於行業平均。預計 2018 年剩餘季度也會產生類似的影響。本季息稅前利潤因銷售量增加和銷售價格上漲而增加，但部分被與成長計畫相關的成本增加所抵銷。

Looking at full year 2018. Consistent with our guidance for Additives & Functional Products at Innovation Day, we continue to expect mid-single-digit volume growth to translate earnings growth in the 5% to 7% range with earnings likely toward upper end of this range this year. I would remind you that second half will have a more challenging comp due to the very strong solar fill volume in the back half of last year and some expected competitive pressure in adhesives. All-in, Additives & Functional Products is well positioned to deliver strong earnings growth for the year.

展望2018年全年。與我們在創新日對添加劑和功能產品的指導一致，我們繼續預計中等個位數的銷售增長將轉化為 5% 至 7% 範圍內的盈利增長，而今年的盈利可能會接近這一範圍的上限。我想提醒您，由於去年下半年太陽能填充量非常強勁，以及黏合劑領域預期的競爭壓力，下半年將面臨更具挑戰性的競爭。All-in、添加劑和功能產品業務已做好準備，今年實現強勁的獲利成長。

Now to Chemical Intermediates on Slide 8. Sales revenue increased due to higher selling prices attributed to higher raw material costs and continued improvement in market conditions. One example is functional amines, where sales volume increased due to a recovery in the energy and agricultural markets. And they also benefit from higher methanol prices. Overall, higher segment sales revenue was partially offset by lower volume and lower merchant ethylene selling prices. Earnings increased primarily due to higher selling prices, more than offsetting higher raw material and energy costs.

現在就來看看幻燈片 8 上的化學中間體。由於原材料成本上升和市場條件持續改善導致銷售價格上漲，銷售收入增加。其中一個例子是功能胺，由於能源和農業市場的復甦，其銷售量增加。他們也因甲醇價格上漲而受益。總體而言，部門銷售收入的增加被銷售的下降和乙烯商業銷售價格的下降部分抵消。收益增加主要由於銷售價格上漲，抵銷了原材料和能源成本上漲的影響。

Looking at full year 2018. We're off to a good start with strong results in the first quarter. The Chemical Intermediates team continues to do an impressive job offsetting higher raw material and energy costs with higher selling prices. These actions will help to mitigate anticipated headwinds from continued weakness in ethylene margins and higher scheduled maintenance costs during the year, particularly in the second quarter. Overall, Chemical Intermediates is set up for 2018 earnings to be somewhat below 2017, which would be a good result, given its various moving parts.

展望2018年全年。我們第一季取得了強勁的業績，開局良好。化學中間體團隊繼續出色地完成了以更高的銷售價格抵消更高的原材料和能源成本的工作。這些措施將有助於緩解乙烯利潤率持續疲軟以及年內（尤其是第二季）計畫維護成本上升所帶來的預期阻力。總體而言，化學中間體 2018 年的收益將略低於 2017 年，考慮到其各種變動因素，這將是一個不錯的結果。

I'll finish up the segment review with Fibers on Slide 9. In our news release tables, you see that revenue increased by 15% year-over-year, which is really due to 2 factors. First is the different seasonal trends we expect in this business in 2018 under the new revenue recognition standard. Similar to the overall company, the change is not expected to materially impact full year 2018 versus 2017 but will impact quarterly trends.

我將在第 9 張投影片上結束對 Fibers 的細分回顧。在我們的新聞稿表中，您可以看到收入同比增長了 15％，這實際上歸因於兩個因素。首先，在新的收入確認準則下，我們預計2018年該業務將呈現不同的季節性趨勢。與整個公司類似，預計這項變更不會對 2018 年全年與 2017 年產生重大影響，但會影響季度趨勢。

And second, we are very encouraged by the acceleration we saw in textiles through the quarter, setting this product up for a nice strong double-digit growth this year. As a result, we moved the textiles and nonwovens innovation platform from Other to the Fibers segment. In first quarter 2018, this program had revenue of approximately $13 million and the EBIT is about $1 million, which includes a substantial increase in growth resources to drive commercialization of this platform.

其次，我們對本季紡織品銷售的加速成長感到非常鼓舞，這將使該產品今年實現強勁的兩位數成長。因此，我們將紡織品和非織造布創新平台從其他部門轉移到纖維部門。2018年第一季度，該專案營收約為1,300萬美元，息稅前利潤約為100萬美元，其中包括大幅增加的成長資源，以推動該平台的商業化。

Looking at the full year. Consistent with Innovation Day guidance, we expect earnings in this segment will be up between 1% and 3% beyond the impact of these product moves. And we expect solid earnings growth in the second quarter versus the first for Fibers. We remain on track to stabilize this business. We expect our tow volume for the year to be about flat compared with last year. We are making continued progress on productivity, including raw material costs. And the impact of these initiatives will start to flow through in the second quarter. And as mentioned, we expect the progress we're making on innovation initiatives in this segment to contribute to earnings growth.

放眼全年。根據創新日的指導，我們預計該部門的收益將在這些產品變動的影響之外增長 1% 至 3%。我們預計 Fibers 第二季的獲利將比第一季穩健成長。我們仍在穩步推進該業務的穩定。我們預計今年的拖吊量與去年相比持平。我們在生產力方面，包括原材料成本方面，正在不斷取得進展。這些舉措的影響將在第二季開始顯現。如同前面所提到的，我們預期該領域創新措施所取得的進展將有助於獲利成長。

On Slide 10, I'll transition to an overview of our cash flow and other financial highlights. We used $35 million in cash for operating activities during first quarter 2018, in line with our normal seasonality of cash flow generation. Operating cash reflects our normal beginning of the year working capital build in addition to an increase in trade receivables attributed to higher sales revenue and the timing of collections.

在第 10 張投影片上，我將概述我們的現金流量和其他財務亮點。2018 年第一季度，我們使用了 3,500 萬美元現金用於經營活動，這與我們正常的現金流量產生季節性一致。經營現金反映了我們年初正常的營運資本積累，此外還反映了由於銷售收入增加和收款時間增加而導致的貿易應收款增加。

Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $128 million. We continue to expect our full year capital expenditures will be approximately $550 million. We remain very confident in our ability to generate over $1.1 billion of free cash flow for the year. Looking at the balance sheet, we continue to expect to use greater than $300 million of free cash flow to reduce debt this year. Additionally, we remain committed to returning cash to our stockholders.

本季資本支出總計1.28億美元。我們繼續預計全年資本支出約為 5.5 億美元。我們仍然對今年創造超過 11 億美元自由現金流的能力充滿信心。從資產負債表來看，我們預計今年仍將使用超過 3 億美元的自由現金流來減少債務。此外，我們仍致力於向股東返還現金。

In the first quarter, we returned $180 million through our first quarter dividend of $80 million and $100 million in share repurchases. For full year, we continue to expect to increase share repurchases compared to 2017 in absence of bolt-on acquisitions. We continue to expect our full year tax rate to be between 18% and 20%, reflecting the continued benefits of our improved business operations and resulting impact of recent tax events. Sitting here today, it feels like 19% which would be a modest improvement compared to last year and is reflected in our results for the first quarter, a strong start to the year for our earnings and cash flow performance.

第一季度，我們透過 8,000 萬美元的第一季股利和 1 億美元的股票回購返還了 1.8 億美元。就全年而言，在沒有附加收購的情況下，我們預期股票回購量將比 2017 年增加。我們繼續預期全年稅率將在 18% 至 20% 之間，這反映了我們改善的業務營運帶來的持續利益以及近期稅收事件的影響。今天坐在這裡，感覺就像是 19%，與去年相比這是一個適度的改善，並且反映在我們第一季度的業績中，這對我們的盈利和現金流表現來說是一個強勁的開端。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Mark.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. On Slide 11, I'll discuss our 2018 outlook. We continue to benefit from the strong growth of high-value innovative products with leading positions in attractive niche markets. We're also delivering revenue synergies through launching new products and improvements in commercial execution capabilities of our acquired businesses.

謝謝，Curt。在第 11 張投影片上，我將討論我們對 2018 年的展望。我們繼續受益於在有吸引力的利基市場中佔據領先地位的高價值創新產品的強勁成長。我們也透過推出新產品和提高所收購業務的商業執行能力來實現收入綜效。

We're seeing the benefits of scale and integration, translating this attractive growth into earnings. And our continued aggressive productivity is expected to offset inflation in some of our growth investments. In addition, the modest improvement in our tax rate is expected to contribute to growth. Finally, disciplined allocation of our strong free cash flow continue to contribute to our growth, including planned increases in our share repurchases in '18 compared to '17.

我們看到了規模和整合的好處，將這種有吸引力的成長轉化為收益。我們持續積極的生產力預計將抵消部分成長投資的通貨膨脹。此外，我們的稅率適度提高預計將促進成長。最後，我們強勁的自由現金流的嚴格分配繼續促進我們的成長，包括與 2017 年相比，2018 年計劃增加股票回購。

To accelerate our momentum in the coming years, we are also continuing to invest in innovation and product development and capacity expansions to support our growth programs. We expect higher scheduled maintenance costs in the year as we have a significant turnaround here in the second quarter for one of our crackers in Longview, Texas. And last, we expect pressure in the ethylene spreads to impact earnings, especially in the second half.

為了在未來幾年加速我們的發展勢頭，我們還將繼續投資於創新和產品開發以及產能擴張，以支持我們的成長計劃。由於我們位於德州朗維尤的裂解裝置在第二季出現了重大轉變，我們預計今年的定期維護成本將會更高。最後，我們預期乙烯價差的壓力將影響獲利，尤其是在下半年。

Putting this all together, our expectations for 2018 EPS growth have improved to be 10% to 14% compared to 2017. When I consider the tailwinds and headwinds at this time, I would expect to be in the middle of this range. And when you think about the shape of the year, you should expect first half EPS to be modestly higher than the second half due to our new revenue recognition method, ethylene and a tough 2017 comp in AFP. And on free cash flow, we continue to expect at least a 10% increase, which is one of the most compelling in the industry, especially when you consider we are investing in long-term growth at the same time.

綜合以上所有因素，我們對 2018 年每股收益成長的預期已提高至 2017 年的 10% 至 14%。當我考慮此時的順風和逆風時，我預計會處於這個範圍的中間。當您考慮今年的情況時，您應該預期上半年的每股盈餘將略高於下半年，這得益於我們新的收入確認方法、乙烯以及 2017 年 AFP 的艱難競爭。就自由現金流而言，我們繼續預計至少會有 10% 的成長，這是業內最引人注目的成長之一，尤其是考慮到我們同時也在投資長期成長。

On Slide 12, I'll summarize where we are. As you think about our portfolio, we continue to march down the path to make 2 specialty businesses a much bigger percentage of the total with our goal of driving from 70% towards a goal of 80%. It all comes together for a terrific bottom line. We can grow faster than the underlying market. We can sustain and improve our margins through mix upgrade. We do this through our unique innovation-driven growth model, which is the heart of how we win. We also do this through scale and integration and investing in the unique abilities we have in place to drive it, and finally through discipline portfolio management.

在第 12 張投影片上，我將總結我們的現況。當您考慮我們的投資組合時，我們將繼續努力使 2 項專業業務佔據總業務的更大比例，我們的目標是從 70% 邁向 80% 的目標。所有這些加在一起，就帶來了極好的利潤。我們可以比基礎市場成長得更快。我們可以透過組合升級來維持和提高我們的利潤率。我們透過獨特的創新驅動成長模式來實現這一目標，這也是我們取勝的核心。我們也透過規模化、整合以及投資於我們現有的獨特能力來實現這一目標，並最終透過專業的投資組合管理來實現這一目標。

That leads you to one of the strongest free cash flow in the industry, a strong return on invested capital that is growing and a compelling compounded EPS growth through 2020 and beyond. When you put this all together, we are well positioned for long-term attractive earnings growth and sustainable value creation for our owners.

這將為您帶來業內最強勁的自由現金流之一、不斷增長的強勁投資資本回報率以及 2020 年及以後令人矚目的複合每股收益增長。綜合考慮以上所有因素，我們就有能力為股東實現長期可觀的獲利成長和可持續的價值創造。

Thanks, Mark. We've got a lot of people on the line this morning and like to get to as many questions as possible. (Operator Instructions) With that, Lauren, we are ready for questions.

謝謝，馬克。今天早上我們接到了很多人電話，我們希望盡可能回答他們提出的問題。（操作員指示）勞倫，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Mark, in AFP, you've got 6% pricing in the quarter. Where do you stand on that segment in recapturing, offsetting raw material costs?

馬克，法新社稱，本季的定價上漲了 6%。在收回和抵銷原材料成本方面，您在這方面的立場是什麼？

We are proud of our discipline in driving price improvements throughout last year and into the first quarter. And what you're seeing is the accumulation of that action over that period of time. And at this stage, our prices have caught up to raw materials. In fact, our spreads are a little bit better in the first quarter.

我們為去年全年以及今年第一季推動價格改善的紀律感到自豪。你所看到的是那段時間該行動的累積。現階段，我們的價格已經趕上了原料的價格。事實上，我們的利差在第一季有所改善。

Very good. And also you mentioned enhanced commercial execution in AFP in Q1. Can you give us some concrete examples of that execution?

非常好。您也提到了 AFP 在第一季的商業執行力增強。您能給我們一些具體的例子嗎？

Sure. It's a great story of creating value through synergies in the acquisitions. We have been building, as we talked to you about on Innovation Day, a very powerful growth model that combines how we engage the market, how we leverage our technology and bringing together the application development capability. And you're seeing that right now. One of the strongest drivers of growth that we had in AFP was our animal nutrition and care chemical business. And there's a place where we've combined the products of Eastman and Taminco, where we have a broader portfolio of organic assets making us much more relevant to the market. The Taminco team was somewhat geographically limited in their commercial execution capability, so we've now built a broader global capability. We've added application development capability to that, so we can be much more of a formulation expert and enhance what we're offering to the marketplace. And that's all combined to drive significant growth, incredible growth in fact, for that combined set of portfolio to the marketplace. So it's a great example. Same thing is true in tires. We've built an integrated capability now, where we started with what Solutia had, which was somewhat limited in what they had to offer to the market, expanded it with our resin portfolio, some other products that we're developing for the innovation side. So now we're not just Crystex and PPDs but have innovative resins that can improve the performance of tires, built a strong application development capability, where we're insightful in how we design those products and can be a true adviser and consultant in formulating the tire. And we've gone from debating the price of Crystex in 2012 to being an innovation partner with all the top MNCs in this space as well as some of the key leading Asian players. So these examples of the growth model, bringing capability together, driving double-digit growth in tires across that portfolio, strong double-digit growth in animal nutrition. And we're doing this in a bunch of other places.

當然。這是一個透過收購的協同效應創造價值的偉大故事。正如我們在創新日上與您討論的那樣，我們一直在建立一個非常強大的成長模式，該模式結合了我們如何參與市場、如何利用我們的技術以及如何整合應用程式開發能力。現在您就看到了這一點。AFP 最強勁的成長動力之一是我們的動物營養和護理化學品業務。我們將 Eastman 和 Taminco 的產品進行了整合，從而擁有了更廣泛的有機資產組合，使我們與市場的聯繫更加緊密。Taminco 團隊的商業執行能力在地理上受到一定限制，因此我們現在建立了更廣泛的全球能力。我們增加了應用程式開發能力，因此我們可以成為配方專家，並增強我們向市場提供的產品。所有這些因素結合起來推動了組合產品在市場上的顯著成長，事實上是令人難以置信的成長。這是一個很好的例子。輪胎的情況也一樣。我們現在已經建立了綜合能力，從 Solutia 所擁有的產品開始，當時 Solutia 向市場提供的產品有些有限，我們透過樹脂產品組合以及我們正在為創新方面開發的一些其他產品對其進行了擴展。所以現在我們不僅擁有 Crystex 和 PPD，還擁有可以提高輪胎性能的創新樹脂，建立了強大的應用開發能力，我們對如何設計這些產品有著深刻的見解，可以成為輪胎配方方面的真正顧問和諮詢師。我們從 2012 年對 Crystex 價格的論點發展到成為該領域所有頂級跨國公司以及一些亞洲主要領導者的創新合作夥伴。這些成長模式的例子，將各種能力整合在一起，推動整個產品組合中輪胎業務實現兩位數成長，動物營養業務實現強勁的兩位數成長。我們也在其他許多地方這樣做。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Question around the contract with Enterprise and PDH. Is there a ramping -- was that material in the first quarter? And then going forward, now that you have both that contract and your own crackers, kind of what's your balance on propylene? And where are we trying to get to over the next year or 2 with that?

有關與 Enterprise 和 PDH 簽訂的合約的問題。是否存在成長——這是第一季的材料嗎？那麼展望未來，既然您既有合同，又有自己的裂解裝置，那麼您在丙烯方面的餘額是多少？那麼，未來一兩年內，我們想要實現什麼目標呢？

So first, on the question on the Enterprise contract, that has not had a material impact on our first quarter input cost or performance. On the balance of propylene, remember we're a net consumer of propylene. I think we're pretty balanced on what we produce now and what we need for our derivatives, including that Enterprise contract.

首先，關於企業合約的問題，這並沒有對我們第一季的投入成本或業績產生重大影響。關於丙烯的平衡，請記住我們是丙烯的淨消費者。我認為，我們在目前生產的產品和衍生產品的需求（包括企業合約）之間已經達到了相當平衡的狀態。

Okay. And could you quantify the accounting change? You said it won't impact the year. But when we think through quarter-to-quarter, it kind of how big of a number are we talking about between quarters? And can you help size that throughout the year?

好的。您能量化會計變更嗎？你說這不會影響今年。但當我們逐季思考時，我們討論的季度間數字到底有多大？您能協助確定全年的規模嗎？

Sure. So let me just recap the change in revenue recognition hopefully just this one time. In 2017, let me remind you, revenue was recorded based on confirmed delivery dates. In 2018, revenue will be recorded based on when goods shipped, which will accelerate when revenue is recognized compared to previous years. So we believe this new method is more consistent with industry practice. To transition to this new method, let me also remind you, we recorded an increase to retained earnings for $53 million. What this really relates to is the net earnings of approximately $200 million of revenue for product that had shipped but not yet delivered at the end of 2017. So this transitional revenue will not be recognized in revenue or EBIT in 2018 under the new method. So this ensures both 2017 and 2018 only have 52 weeks of revenue in each period. So as such, it's not -- again as you mentioned, this change is not expected to have a material impact on revenue or EBIT for 2018 taken as a whole when compared to previous years. However, as you've seen in the first quarter, this impacts seasonal trends of revenue and EBIT within the year. So looking specifically at first quarter, the first quarter revenue impact under the new standard and in 2018 was driven mostly by Fibers, as mentioned in my prepared comments. We had a similar but smaller revenue impact on Advanced Materials, offset by similar change in Chemical Intermediates. So when you put it all together, the company probably accelerated $30 million of revenue and roughly $18 million of EBIT or $0.10 a share in first quarter of '18 that would otherwise be recognized later in 2018 if we're still under the old method. So again, this change does not impact our expectation of strong revenue and EBIT growth for the company or any segments when comparing 2018 versus 2017 for the full year.

當然。因此，讓我簡單回顧一下收入確認的變化，希望只是這次。2017 年，讓我提醒您，收入是根據確認的交貨日期記錄的。2018年將實施以貨物出貨時間入賬，收入確認速度較前幾年加速。所以我們相信這種新方法更符合業界慣例。為了過渡到這種新方法，我還要提醒您，我們記錄的留存收益增加了 5,300 萬美元。這實際上與 2017 年底已發貨但尚未交付的產品的淨收入約 2 億美元有關。因此，按照新方法，這筆過渡收入將不會在2018年的收入或息稅前利潤中確認。因此，這確保了 2017 年和 2018 年每個時期都只有 52 週的收入。因此，正如您所提到的，與前幾年相比，這項變更預計不會對 2018 年全年的收入或息稅前利潤產生重大影響。然而，正如您在第一季看到的，這會影響一年內收入和息稅前利潤的季節性趨勢。因此，具體來看第一季度，新標準下以及 2018 年第一季的營收影響主要來自纖維，正如我在準備好的評論中所提到的。先進材料業務的收入影響類似，但較小，但被化學中間體的類似變化所抵消。因此，如果將所有這些加在一起，該公司在 2018 年第一季的收入可能會增加 3000 萬美元，息稅前利潤約為 1800 萬美元，即每股 0.10 美元，如果我們仍採用舊方法，這些收入將在 2018 年晚些時候確認。因此，在比較 2018 年與 2017 年全年業績時，這項變更不會影響我們對公司或任何部門強勁收入和息稅前利潤成長的預期。

Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鮑伯·庫爾特。

This is Dylan Campbell on for Bob. For Advanced Materials, you just called out a stronger sales mix for the premium products. Can you provide an update on the percent of the current mix that comes from these premium products?

我是鮑伯的迪倫坎貝爾。對於先進材料，您剛剛呼籲對優質產品進行更強大的銷售組合。您能否提供當前產品組合中來自這些優質產品的百分比的最新資訊？

So we don't provide this specific breakdown. What I can tell you, and we said in the past, is Tritan as an example is around $300 million, double-digit growth, very powerful story there, where we continue to be the most unique offering of clarity, chemical resistance and toughness in that marketplace and extending into a lot of new applications. And that's just 1/3, if you will, of the premium products. So the heads-up display and acoustic interlayers is of similar size, also growing double digits with very attractive margins to the segment and the company. And performance films, also similar size to Tritan, growing at double digits with very attractive margins. So it's a pretty big percentage of the overall total. But it's still got a ton of room to grow double digits for quite some time because these markets are quite a bit bigger than where we are today.

因此我們不提供這個具體的細目。我可以告訴你的是，我們過去也說過，以 Tritan 為例，其銷售額約為 3 億美元，實現了兩位數的增長，這是一個非常強勁的故事，我們將繼續在該市場上以最獨特的方式提供清晰度、耐化學性和韌性，並擴展到許多新的應用領域。如果你願意的話，這只是優質產品的 1/3。因此，平視顯示器和聲學夾層的規模相似，也實現了兩位數的成長，為該領域和公司帶來了非常有吸引力的利潤率。而性能薄膜的規模也與Tritan類似，以兩位數的速度成長，利潤率非常可觀。所以它佔了總數相當大的比例。但在相當長的一段時間內，它仍然有很大的兩位數成長空間，因為這些市場比我們現在的規模要大得多。

Got it. And with the increased EPS growth expectation in 2018, do you see a risk to the upside for your longer-term 8% to 12% growth? Or does this kind of create a higher bar to cross for 2018 and 2020?

知道了。隨著 2018 年每股盈餘成長預期的提高，您是否認為長期 8% 至 12% 的成長率有上行風險？或者這會為 2018 年和 2020 年設定更高的門檻？

So first of all, we're incredibly excited about a 10% to 14% range this year. And I'd love to see it being driven by the specialties and stability with some earnings growth in Fibers, which is a very nice change in stability in CI. So I think it's a powerful story. As we think about the long term, we still view the long term in the 8% to 12% range. There are some unique advantages we have this year in currency, for example, that you don't plan on repeating in the future years. But we think that's a very compelling range for us to grow sustainably and consistently every year as we go forward. And with an increasing free cash flow to go with it, I think it's a very powerful story for the market.

首先，我們對今年 10% 至 14% 的成長率感到非常興奮。我很高興看到它受到專業和穩定性的推動，纖維的盈利有所增長，這是 CI 穩定性的一個非常好的變化。所以我認為這是一個很有影響力的故事。從長遠來看，我們仍然認為長期成長率在 8% 至 12% 之間。例如，今年我們在貨幣方面具有一些獨特的優勢，這些優勢你不打算在未來幾年重複。但我們認為，這是一個非常有吸引力的範圍，可以讓我們在未來的每一年都實現可持續、持續的成長。並且隨著自由現金流的增加，我認為這對市場來說是一個非常強大的故事。

We'll go next to Jim Sheehan with SunTrust.

接下來我們來談談 SunTrust 的 Jim Sheehan。

Could you update us on your plans to your strategic options for the Longview ethylene excess capacity?

您能否向我們介紹一下針對朗維尤乙烯產能過剩的策略選擇計畫？

Sure. We remain committed to address our excess ethylene position, as we've mentioned in the past. We remain engaged with multiple parties with a long-term view, who are interested in leveraging our integrated ethylene position in the United States as well there's parties interested in our land, utilities and other infrastructure to build a derivative project at the Longview site. So we're working diligently to see what we can get done within these current market dynamics. And we'll update you as we make any progress on it.

當然。正如我們過去提到的那樣，我們仍然致力於解決乙烯過剩問題。我們仍然與具有長遠眼光的多方保持聯繫，他們有興趣利用我們在美國的綜合乙烯地位，也有各方對我們的土地、公用設施和其他基礎設施感興趣，以便在朗維尤工廠建設衍生項目。因此，我們正在努力研究在當前市場動態下我們能取得什麼成果。一旦有任何進展，我們就會向大家通報。

And on adhesive resins, could you give us more color on the competitive pressure you're seeing there? Is it all in hydrogenated or non-hydrogenated type of resins?

關於黏合劑樹脂，您能否詳細介紹一下您所看到的競爭壓力？都是氫化樹脂還是非氫化樹脂？

So the specific change in the marketplace is Exxon is bringing on some capacity in Asia this year. And we expect that to have some impact on margins. It has not yet had an impact on margins. They're still in the process of starting up and qualifying that product to the marketplace. So it's really more of a back half of year risk at this point. To keep in mind though, the amount of capacity they're adding is around 90,000 tons. The market is growing around 25,000 to 30,000 tons a year because it has this incredible underlying market growth of 5% to 7% in hygiene. Also markets are incredibly tight right now, so there's a lot of pent-up demand for hydrogenated resins that we expect to help fill out that asset and accelerate fill-out rate. And another thing to keep in mind is the market trends now driving rosins to be converted to resins. Rosins is about the same size as the overall resin market. And there's a lot of pressure on that. There's a very strong odor to rosins and not great color. And so the market has become very sensitive to odor in adhesives especially in Asia. So a lot of people are looking to sort of convert from one to the other. So that's another way of demand sort of filling up this asset. So overall, we feel comfortable that this is a great attractive business long term. Obviously, we'll see some short-term pressure here as that capacity comes to the marketplace. But there's such strong demand potential, where we see the long-term margins being quite attractive.

因此，市場的具體變化是埃克森美孚今年將在亞洲增加一些產能。我們預計這會對利潤產生一定影響。它尚未對利潤產生影響。他們仍處於啟動和將該產品推向市場的過程中。因此，目前來看，這其實更像是下半年的風險。但請記住，他們增加的產能約為 9 萬噸。由於衛生用品市場的潛在成長率高達 5% 至 7%，因此該市場每年的成長率約為 25,000 至 30,000 噸。此外，目前市場非常緊張，因此對氫化樹脂的需求被壓抑了很多，我們預計這將有助於填補這一資產並加快填補率。另外要記住的一點是，現在的市場趨勢是推動松香轉化為樹脂。松香的規模與整個樹脂市場的規模大致相同。這方面壓力很大。松香的氣味很濃，顏色也不好看。因此，市場對黏合劑的氣味變得非常敏感，尤其是在亞洲。因此，很多人都在尋求從一種方式轉換為另一種方式。所以這是需求填補這種資產的另一種方式。所以總的來說，我們相信從長遠來看這是一項非常有吸引力的業務。顯然，隨著產能進入市場，我們將看到一些短期壓力。但需求潛力如此強勁，我們認為長期利潤率相當有吸引力。

We'll go next to P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

接下來我們將與花旗銀行一起前往 P.J. Juvekar。

Mark, you shifted some products from intermediates to AFP. I think that's small about $18 million. But that's about 2% growth in AFP. So what are these products? And are they too specialty in terms of margins?

馬克，你將一些產品從中間體轉移到了 AFP。我認為這個數字很小，大約 1800 萬美元。但法新社的增幅約為 2%。那麼這些產品是什麼呢？從利潤率來看，他們的專業是否太強了？

Yes, it's a great question. And it goes back to something I talked about in the first question. As we have built this growth model and seen the power of how application development connects markets and technology together, we launched a program last year, not just to build this capability but to reexamine how our business teams are structured and making sure that we had the right products aligned to take advantage of that capability. And we realized that there were some products that were still being sold in CI that would be much more effectively sold in AFP. By bringing our better market connect and our application development capability to bear on these products, we could accelerate growth, sustain those margins. And these products were actually pretty attractive margins to start off with. And some of them were already being sold partially by AFP and we're just consolidating all the products into one place to be more efficient in how we manage the assets. So it just made sense. So animal nutrition was one of those places where we saw that opportunity with the success we're now seeing in that marketplace and we're cleaning that up. And there were also some products in coatings that made sense to sort of have all sold in one place with that greater commercial and technical capability. So it's a natural thing you do as you're sort of evolving your strategy and see what you can do and want to maximize your growth.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。這又回到了第一個問題中我談到的內容。由於我們建立了這種成長模式，並看到了應用程式開發如何將市場和技術連接在一起的力量，我們去年啟動了一個項目，不僅是為了建立這種能力，而且是為了重新審視我們的業務團隊的結構，並確保我們擁有合適的產品來利用這種能力。我們意識到，有些產品仍在 CI 銷售，但如果在 AFP 銷售，效果會更好。透過將我們更好的市場聯繫和應用程式開發能力應用到這些產品上，我們可以加速成長並維持利潤率。而這些產品的利潤其實一開始就相當誘人。其中一些已經由 AFP 部分出售，我們只是將所有產品整合到一個地方，以便更有效地管理資產。所以這是有道理的。因此，動物營養是我們看到機會的領域之一，我們目前在該市場看到了成功，我們正在清理它。而且還有一些塗料產品，如果都集中在一個地方銷售，會更有利於提升商業和技術能力。因此，當你在發展自己的策略，看看自己能做什麼，並希望最大限度地實現成長時，這是一件很自然的事。

Okay. And then you got strong double-digit volume growth in tow after several years of declines. Do you believe that we've ended the destocking cycle? Or was there any other factors, like your repositioning into textile, that caused the volume growth?

好的。經過幾年的下滑之後，銷量又實現了強勁的兩位數成長。您認為我們已經結束了去庫存週期嗎？或者是否有其他因素，例如重新定位到紡織業，導致了銷售量的成長？

So as Curt mentioned around revenue recognition, the principal driver of the revenue looking higher on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter was actually revenue recognition method being different this year versus last year. It's a very long supply chain for a lot of that tow to go from Kingsport, Tennessee to markets around the world. And as a result of the coal gas incident, we weren't shipping as much in the beginning of the quarter as we normally do as we're bringing that asset back up and then ramping up the production of the downstream tow product. So a lot of that product shipped in March that would have shipped earlier. And so when you have these 2 different methods, it just gets caught up as recognized revenue this year but would have not shown up in the same way last year. So that's part of it, P.J. The other part was obviously some of the revenue being transferred, the $13 million of revenue, from Other to the Fibers segment. So when you actually sort of put it on an apples-to-apples basis from a revenue recognition basis, the tow volumes within this story are about flat year-over-year. So there isn't a story of growth or decline in tow. It's stable as we said. Last year, we expected the tow volume to be stable this year to last year. And that's what we expect. And you will see on a full year basis, that will be stable.

因此，正如 Curt 提到的收入確認一樣，第一季營收年增的主要驅動因素實際上是今年的營收確認方法與去年不同。許多拖車從田納西州金斯波特運往世界各地的市場，需要經過很長的供應鏈。由於瓦斯事件的影響，我們在本季度初的出貨量沒有像往常一樣多，因為我們正在恢復該資產，然後提高下游拖帶產品的產量。因此，許多本來可以提前出貨的產品在三月才出貨。因此，當您採用這兩種不同的方法時，它只會被視為今年確認的收入，但去年不會以相同的方式出現。這就是其中的一部分，P.J. 另一部分顯然是部分收入被轉移，即 1300 萬美元的收入，從“其他”部門轉移到了“纖維”部門。因此，當你從收入確認的角度進行同類比較時，你會發現這個故事中的拖車數量與去年同期基本持平。因此，不存在成長或衰退的故事。正如我們所說，它是穩定的。去年，我們預計今年的拖吊量將與去年持平。這正是我們所期望的。你會發現，從全年來看，這將是穩定的。

We'll go next to Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

接下來我們來談談摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you remind us how much of the Chemical Intermediates volume as a percentage goes for internal purposes versus external purposes?

您能否提醒我們化學中間體體積中用於內部用途和外部用途的百分比是多少？

It's about a 50-50 split, Jeff.

大約是 50-50 的比例，傑夫。

Okay. So if it turns out that your operating income in Chemical Intermediates was up about $7 million, is it fair to say that there's a $7 million benefit that filters through your other segments as they capture the same margin differential? And since for the year, you guys think that you'll be down a little bit, does that mean that the overall margin benefit to the other segments will also be down a little bit?

好的。因此，如果事實證明您在化學中間體的營業收入增加了約 700 萬美元，那麼是否可以說這 700 萬美元的收益會透過您的其他部門獲得，因為它們獲得了相同的利潤差異？既然你們認為今年的利潤會略有下降，這是否意味著其他部門的整體利潤收益也會略有下降？

Jeff, you can't translate that in that direct way. You've got different set of products you're selling in specialties with different supply-demand dynamics and selling on values. The price of those olefin derivatives are going to be determined by those market conditions. And even within CI, the market prices and the value captured isn't directly correlated to ethylene and propylene. I know that everyone sort of tends to make that simplistic assumption that there's all going up and down with propylene and ethylene prices. But it doesn't work that way. We don't sell propylene at all, right? We sell derivatives and specialties and in Chemical Intermediates. And the value and the pricing of that is actually holding up quite well through the first quarter as well as into the second, including ethylene. Of course, some of that is being offset by the bulk ethylene that we're selling into the marketplace at these much lower prices. So you can't sort of do that translation one-for-one like that.

傑夫，你不能用那麼直接的方式翻譯。您銷售的產品系列各有不同，其供需動態和銷售價值也各有不同。這些烯烴衍生物的價格將由市場條件決定。即使在 CI 內部，市場價格和獲取的價值也與乙烯和丙烯沒有直接關係。我知道每個人都傾向於做出這種簡單的假設，即丙烯和乙烯的價格都會漲跌。但事實並非如此。我們根本不賣丙烯，對嗎？我們銷售衍生性商品、特殊產品和化學中間體。包括乙烯在內的產品的價值和定價在第一季和第二季實際上都保持了相當好的水平。當然，我們以低得多的價格向市場銷售的散裝乙烯抵消了其中的一部分。所以你不能像那樣一對一地進行翻譯。

We'll go next to Alex Yefremov with Nomura Instinet.

接下來我們來談談 Nomura Instinet 的 Alex Yefremov。

In regards to Aerafin capacity expansion, are you currently sold out in these types of adhesives? And what percent of your capacity does this represent in terms of percent or kilotons? And when will this project be finished?

關於 Aerafin 產能擴張，目前這些類型的黏合劑是否已經售罄？以百分比或千噸計算，這佔你們產能的百分之多少？這個計畫什麼時候能完工？

So Aerafin has been a product we've had in the marketplace for over a year. And the growth rate and the interest of it has been quite strong. It's a component of our overall amorphous polyolefin program, which in total is showing very strong double-digit growth. But in this particular area, we're seeing a strong uptake. And we hit some capacity limits or expect to, I should say, as we go into this year and expanding capacity. We don't see any risk of missing orders. But we're rushing to get this capacity online to continue supporting the strong interest. But we're not going to provide the detailed breakout on a quantitative basis.

Aerafin 是我們已經在市場上銷售一年多的產品。而且它的成長率和興趣一直相當強勁。它是我們整體非晶態聚烯烴專案的一個組成部分，該專案整體呈現非常強勁的兩位數成長。但在這個特定領域，我們看到了強勁的成長動能。隨著我們進入今年並擴大產能，我們達到了一些產能限制，或者我應該說，預計會達到一些產能限制。我們沒有發現任何錯過訂單的風險。但我們正在加緊努力，使這項能力上線，以繼續支持強烈的興趣。但我們不會提供定量的詳細數據。

Okay. You also mentioned animal nutrition and care chemicals as the source of upside in the first quarter. Was it pricing or volume or both? And is this something that's sustainable going forward?

好的。您還提到動物營養和護理化學品是第一季上漲的來源。是價格還是數量，還是兩者兼具？而這種趨勢在未來還能持續下去嗎？

So on animal nutrition, it's been tremendous volume growth as well as improvement in pricing as the markets to become tighter for 2 factors. The first would be the answer to David's question around how we build a better commercial technical capability. The second factor driving it is the China environmental enforcement has shut down some of our competitors in this space as well as competitors in the tire space and some of the coatings. So we're seeing benefits across the segment in AFP as well as CI. And that's helped on the pricing front as well as the volume growth. From a sustainability point of view, the innovation and the commercial execution is all very much sustainable. It's just growing in the marketplace. The China environmental enforcement part of that question, -- we'll just have to see how it plays out. I mean, these are players that have been shut down for environmental violations. They have to either rebuild in a chemical park and operate at a higher cost structure under better environmental standards if they can get the financing or they won't come back. And so in a few places, you can see people trying to build and they will come back eventually at a higher cost structure. And in some places, we don't expect that they will. So that, we'll have to just see how it plays out over time. But for this year, we just expect it to be very attractive, both pricing and volume growth. I would emphasize that there's a sustainable advantage that we get out of all of this is that many of our customers, both the big MNCs around the world as well as many of our Chinese customers, have learned a painful lesson about how much they want to depend on a small, private, single plant in China supplying their needs on critical products. So procurement departments are having to reevaluate how much of that risk they want to take going forward. And I think it really emphasizes the value that we provide as a sustainable supplier on a global basis.

因此，在動物營養方面，由於兩個因素導致市場變得更加緊張，產量出現了巨大的成長，價格也得到了改善。首先要回答大衛關於如何建立更好的商業技術能力的問題。第二個因素是，中國的環境執法已經關閉了我們在這個領域的一些競爭對手以及輪胎領域和一些塗料領域的競爭對手。因此，我們看到 AFP 和 CI 各個領域都受益。這對定價和銷售成長都有幫助。從永續性的角度來看，創新和商業執行都非常永續。它在市場上正在不斷成長。關於該問題的中國環境執法部分，我們只需觀察其結果如何。我的意思是，這些球員因為違反環境法規而被停賽。如果他們能夠獲得融資，他們必須在化學園區重建，並在更好的環境標準下以更高的成本結構運營，否則他們就不會回來。因此，在一些地方，你可以看到人們試圖建設，但最終他們會以更高的成本結構回歸。而在某些地方，我們也不認為他們會這麼做。因此，我們只需要觀察它隨著時間的推移如何發展。但就今年而言，我們預計它會非常有吸引力，無論是定價還是銷售成長。我想強調的是，我們從這一切中獲得的一個可持續的優勢是，我們的許多客戶，包括世界各地的大型跨國公司以及許多中國客戶，都得到了慘痛的教訓，他們多麼希望依賴中國的一家小型、私營的單一工廠來滿足他們的關鍵產品需求。因此，採購部門必須重新評估未來願意承擔多大的風險。我認為這確實強調了我們作為全球永續供應商所提供的價值。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Mark, back at the Investor Day, and I think on various earnings calls, you've alluded to the concept of upgrading your mix across a variety of specialty products. Is there a way to quantify the benefit from that, either retrospectively or prospectively in terms of margin uplift? You've got a lot going on across a lot of different products. Just wondering if you have in your mind any sort of glide path or rule of thumb to help us understand better the benefits associated with those efforts on the margin line.

馬克，回到投資者日，我想在各種收益電話會議上，您都提到了升級各種特色產品組合的概念。有沒有辦法量化由此帶來的好處，無論是回顧性地還是前瞻性地從利潤率提升的角度來衡量？您在許多不同的產品上都做了很多事情。只是想知道您是否有任何滑行路徑或經驗法則來幫助我們更好地理解與邊線努力相關的好處。

Yes. So one, this is the heart of our story and our strategy, so it's a great question. We've got double-digit growth in a wide range of products across AM, AFP, from Tritan to head-up displays, acoustic interlayers to performance films to some display products, the resins in tires, Tetrashield in AFP, the list goes on. So all these are above segment average margins as well as above company average margins. And so as they grow, the weighted average mix on the variable margin at the corporate line is going up. So it's attractive. From a specific point of view, we actually provided several slides at Innovation Day that actually give you a sort of qualitative look about how we've dramatically improved the margins from 2010 to '17 and our outlook for how those margins will continue to improve at the corporate level and as well as some example in Advanced Materials from 2018 to '20. So I think those slides will be helpful for you.

是的。首先，這是我們的故事和策略的核心，所以這是一個很好的問題。我們在 AM、AFP 領域的多種產品都實現了兩位數增長，從 Tritan 到平視顯示器、從隔音夾層到性能薄膜到一些顯示產品、從輪胎中的樹脂到 AFP 中的 Tetrashield，不勝枚舉。因此，所有這些都高於細分市場平均利潤率以及公司平均利潤率。因此，隨著它們的發展，公司線上可變利潤的加權平均組合也在上升。所以它很有吸引力。從特定角度來看，我們實際上在創新日提供了幾張幻燈片，這些幻燈片實際上可以讓您定性地了解我們如何在 2010 年至 2017 年期間大幅提高利潤率，以及我們對這些利潤率將如何在公司層面繼續提高的展望，以及先進材料在 2018 年至 2020 年期間的一些示例。所以我認為這些幻燈片對你有幫助。

All right. And then second, how would you describe your strategic playbook in the event that China proceeds with tariffs on cellulose acetate flake?

好的。第二，如果中國繼續對醋酸纖維素薄片徵收關稅，您會如何描述您的策略策略？

Yes. So the tariff question is a good one. On the acetate flake side, it's unclear. First of all, it's unclear what products will finally be implemented versus what's on a preliminary list. They often change. Second, it's unclear when they might implement this, if ever. And in this case, it's unclear how the tariff would be applied. CNTC is a government entity. So you're sort of just moving tax revenue from one pocket to another pocket. So we'll just have to see how that all plays out.

是的。因此，關稅問題是一個好問題。在醋酸纖維薄片方面，情況並不明朗。首先，目前尚不清楚最終將實施哪些產品，以及初步清單上列出的產品是什麼。它們經常改變。其次，目前還不清楚他們何時會實施這項計劃，或是否會實施。在這種情況下，尚不清楚關稅將如何實施。CNTC 是一個政府實體。所以你只是把稅收從一個口袋轉移到另一個口袋。所以我們只需要看看這一切將如何發展。

We'll go next to Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們來談談摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。

Just a question on the tow volume. Mark, you referenced a very long supply chain. And I've noticed that the 2 of the larger tobacco companies reported already. And they've got volume down about 7 -- 6%, 7%. So I'm just wondering, you're expecting to be flat for the year and cigarette volumes move around all the time. So I don't want to read too much into 1 quarter of their results. But how -- when would we expect to see that type of a down quarter flow through your tow volume?

我只想問一下關於拖車容量的問題。馬克，你提到了非常長的供應鏈。我注意到兩家較大的煙草公司已經提交了報告。他們的銷量下降了約 7% 至 6%、7%。所以我只是想知道，您是否預計全年的香菸銷售將保持平穩，而香菸銷售一直在波動。所以我不想過度解讀他們四分之一的業績。但是，我們什麼時候才能看到這種下降的季度流量通過你的拖車量呢？

Good question, Vincent. And you said the key thing at the end of your comments, which is 1 quarter is not something to react to by a couple of companies. I think we need to see how they all report. It sure shifts around a lot between these guys on a quarter-to-quarter basis and what the overall market trends are. We're not seeing anything that says that there's suddenly been an acceleration of the downturn of cigarette demand from what our customers are telling us. So at this stage, we're not expecting a change in tow demand in any material way. I think we're just going to have to see how this plays out. There's been a lot of very consistent, steady sort of 2%, 3% decline in this business for a very long time. And I think we need to give it a little more time before we start sort of reacting to sort of that 1 quarter bit of news.

問得好，文森特。您在評論的最後提到了關鍵點，即 1 個季度並不是幾家公司就能做出反應的事情。我認為我們需要看看他們都是如何報告的。這些人之間的情況確實每季都會有很大變化，而且整體市場趨勢也是如此。從顧客反映的情況來看，我們並沒有看到任何跡象顯示香菸需求下滑速度突然加快。因此，在現階段，我們預計拖車需求不會發生任何實質變化。我認為我們只需要看看事情會如何發展。很長一段時間以來，該行業一直持續穩定地出現 2% 至 3% 的下滑。我認為我們需要再多一點時間才能開始對這一季度的新聞做出反應。

Okay. And just -- is there sort of a rule of thumb on sort of how long supply chain is though?

好的。那麼──對於供應鏈的長度，是否存在某種經驗法則？

On the supply chain side in this case, it's probably 6 months.

在這種情況下，從供應鏈方面來看，大概需要 6 個月。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

In terms of -- you talked about $350 million of new business wins in 2018. And if I combine AFP and AM together, it's about 6% growth, so -- and you've got pricing as a tailwind. So I'm just curious, in terms of your outlook for revenue for AM and AFP, it seems a little bit conservative. Can you maybe walk us through any negatives that we're missing?

就此而言——您談到了 2018 年 3.5 億美元的新業務勝利。如果我將 AFP 和 AM 合併在一起，成長率約為 6%，因此 — — 並且定價是順風。所以我只是好奇，就您對 AM 和 AFP 的收入前景而言，這似乎有點保守。您能否向我們介紹我們遺漏了哪些負面因素？

No negatives in AM. I think what you're just going to see is strong high single-digit revenue growth for the year, driven by the things you just mentioned, volume, significant mix upgrade that we've consistently done for several years now, some pricing improvement, FX tailwind, all sort of come together to sort of deliver that. On the AFP side, it's obviously been incredibly strong in the first quarter. We expect continued strength in the second quarter. And by the way, AM and AFP, we do expect seasonal improvement in revenue and earnings from first to second quarter. But there's a tougher comp in the back half of the year for AFP. You have to remember last year, we had very high solar fill volume for a couple of huge projects that were in the third and fourth quarter that won't repeat this year. We do see fill coming in '19 and '20. So it's just sort of chunkiness issue in this year versus last year and the future. There's also the other dynamic. This environmental China enforcement drove a constant and meaningful share improvement for us through last year. So you saw the benefit of that really in the third and fourth quarter. There's an additional environmental enforcement on top of what we benefited from. So we're holding our share this year. But obviously, that's a tougher comp to last year in the back half. And then the third thing is some price pressure in adhesives, as I already mentioned. All those sort of make the comp tougher. We do expect earnings growth year-over-year in the back of the year just to be clear. And we actually expect margins to sequentially improve from first quarter to second and third as the mix continues to improve with the specialty innovation products. But it will just be a tougher comp to '17.

AM 中沒有負面內容。我認為，您將會看到今年收入將呈現強勁的高個位數增長，這得益於您剛才提到的那些因素，包括銷量、我們幾年來一直在進行的重大產品組合升級、一些價格改進、外匯順風等，所有這些因素共同作用，最終實現了這一目標。從法新社方面來看，第一季的表現顯然非常強勁。我們預計第二季將繼續保持強勁勢頭。順便說一句，AM 和 AFP，我們確實預計第一季至第二季的營收和收益將出現季節性改善。但法新社今年下半年面臨的競爭更為激烈。你必須記住，去年我們在第三季和第四季的幾個大型專案中的太陽能填充量非常高，而今年不會再出現這種情況。我們確實看到 19 年和 20 年的填充。因此，這只是今年與去年以及未來相比的一個問題。還有另一種動態。中國的環保執法在去年推動了我們的市場份額持續且有意義的提升。因此，您確實在第三季和第四季看到了它的好處。除了我們所受益的以外，還有額外的環境執法。因此我們今年將保住自己的份額。但顯然，與去年下半年相比，今年的情況更加嚴峻。第三件事是黏合劑的價格壓力，正如我已經提到的。所有這些都使得比賽變得更加艱難。為了明確起見，我們確實預計今年稍後獲利將年增。事實上，隨著專業創新產品組合的不斷改善，我們預計利潤率將從第一季到第二季和第三季逐季提高。但與 2017 年相比，這將是一場更艱難的較量。

Okay, great. And a quick follow-up in terms of tire business continues to see good momentum. A lot of the tire companies looked sluggish this quarter. Any thoughts there in terms of underlying demand? And is it really just your new products that are driving the growth?

好的，太好了。而輪胎業務方面快速跟進也持續呈現良好勢頭。本季許多輪胎公司表現低迷。對於潛在需求您有什麼想法嗎？真的只是你們的新產品推動了成長嗎？

It's not a primary demand. We go to extensive effort in our market segmentation and targeting, where we have the best value proposition and aligning ourselves for the customers who we believe are going to have the highest growth. So we have really seen benefits in Asia in particular of aligning with the winners in that market and seeing the benefit as they're taking share and consolidating frankly failing Chinese tire companies into themselves. And so we're benefiting from that. On top of that, you have the share gains, as I mentioned, from environmental enforcement. On top of that, you have the innovation growth that's happening, where we have double-digit growth on things like our tire resins. It's all combined together to a story of where we're creating our own growth in a market where the underlying primary demand, as you noted, is not that strong.

這不是主要需求。我們在市場區隔和目標定位方面付出了巨大的努力，我們擁有最佳的價值主張，並為那些我們認為將實現最高成長的客戶提供服務。因此，我們確實看到了在亞洲的好處，特別是與該市場的贏家結盟，並看到他們佔領市場份額和整合失敗的中國輪胎公司所帶來的好處。因此我們從中受益。除此之外，正如我所提到的，您還可以從環境執法中獲益。除此之外，我們還看到了創新成長，我們的輪胎樹脂等產品實現了兩位數的成長。所有這些結合在一起，就形成了一個故事，即我們在一個潛在主要需求不那麼強勁的市場中創造自己的成長。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國證券的弗蘭克米奇 (Frank Mitsch)。

Apologies, I'm feeling pretty good after last night's draft. So celebratory environment, kinda like you guys celebrating a nice start to the year. And speaking of nice starts, you reiterated that you expect to get greater than $1.1 billion in free cash flow this year. Was there a thought to raise that metric as you raised the EPS guidance?

抱歉，看完昨晚的選秀後我感覺很好。如此喜慶的氣氛，有點像你們慶祝新的一年美好的開始。說到良好的開端，您重申預計今年的自由現金流將超過 11 億美元。當您提高每股盈餘預期時，是否有想過提高該指標？

Well, delivering greater than $1.1 billion by itself is a pretty remarkable effort, Frank. And let us deliver on that this year. If we do a little bit better, we'll celebrate with you in the fall with some victories.

嗯，弗蘭克，僅提供超過 11 億美元的資金就已經是一項非常了不起的努力了。讓我們今年實現這個目標。如果我們做得更好一點，我們將在秋天與你們一起慶祝勝利。

Terrific, something for me to look forward to. Mark, you just indicated that you do expect a seasonal improvement in some of your businesses in Q2. Can you talk about the pace of business so far in Q2 on a geographic basis that you're seeing out there?

太棒了，我很期待。馬克，您剛才表示，您確實預計第二季部分業務會出現季節性改善。您能否從您所看到的地理分佈來談談第二季度迄今為止的業務進展？

So as you saw in the first quarter, tremendous growth in Europe and Asia. And we'll continue to see strong growth in those regions as the economies are improving in Europe. Asia is still growing while may not be the growth of old days in China, it's still very attractive growth compared to the rest of the world. And we're benefiting from our positions in there as well throughout Asia. And their overall sort of automotive market is feeling a little stronger than people expected at the beginning of the year, so that's great for us, of course. So I'd say it feels good everywhere. To be clear, our forecast isn't forecasting improved economy. So if that does happen, that would be upside to our forecast. We believe in sort of realizing the growth that we're having. It's also important to remember that revenue growth doesn't just include volume, it includes FX and price improvements, et cetera.

正如您在第一季看到的，歐洲和亞洲實現了巨大的成長。隨著歐洲經濟的改善，我們將繼續看到這些地區的強勁成長。亞洲仍在成長，儘管可能不再是中國昔日的成長，但與世界其他地區相比，這仍然是非常有吸引力的成長。我們也因在亞洲各地的地位而受益。而且他們的整體汽車市場比人們年初預期的要強勁一些，這對我們來說當然是好事。所以我想說到處都感覺很好。需要明確的是，我們的預測並不是經濟好轉。因此，如果這種情況確實發生，那將對我們的預測有利。我們相信，我們能夠實現我們正在經歷的成長。同樣重要的是要記住，收入成長不僅包括數量，還包括外匯和價格改善等等。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰羅伯茲。

The cig tow industry will still decline gradually over time and eventually need more consolidation and rationalization. Do you see the block of the merger of Celanese and Blackstone business a problem down the road if the industry can't consolidate? Or how do you see things playing out longer term?

隨著時間的推移，香菸絲束產業仍將逐漸衰落，最終需要更多的整合和合理化。如果該行業無法整合，您是否認為塞拉尼斯和黑石業務合併的阻礙會成為未來的問題？或者您認為事情的長期發展會是如何？

So let me sort of take that in two parts. First is sort of our overall view of demand in the world and then I'll get to sort of the second part of the question. Overall demand, as I mentioned, we don't see a significant change in the overall demand of cigarettes. We expect a sort of slow decline outside of China. If you look at China demand, at primary level, I think it's actually been a lot more stable than any of us thought. There was an overbuilding of inventory that was occurring in '11, '12 and '13. And then there was a destocking and that backward integration that they had with JVs with us and others that created a huge sort of up and then down in tow in that marketplace. But underlying it, I think it's stable. I'd also note that at this stage, the exposure to imports into China with tow is down to about 5% of our revenue in this segment or 0.5% at the company level. So the exposure we have to that question right now has been dramatically reduced on what happens inside China. The key elements of how we think about this business is stay the same as it always has been. We're focused on running our business the best we possibly can. And I think we're doing a good job of that. So we secured a lot of our volume outside of China, 2/3 of it in these long-term agreements that provide stability in volume and pricing for our customers and for us. We're obviously pursuing productivity aggressively this year and the amount of cost we think we can improve, including our raw materials. And that's going to offset the price declines that we expect this year. But most importantly to our story is on the asset side. When we added capacity in China, we took out capacity in the U.K. And now we're down to our last asset in flake, largest, lowest-cost asset, backward-integrated coal. And our tow capacity that we have left matches that flake. So we're focused on how we fill that remaining capacity, that excess capacity, including what declines may come with our innovation. So I just told you at the beginning of this call, we're seeing tremendous success in textiles. We're also seeing success in nonwovens, where we're going to get strong double-digit growth this year over last year in this space. And while the margins aren't tow, they're decent attractive margins similar to sort of company average. And that's how we fill these assets and drive earnings growth net for this business. So we're going to repurpose those assets, this excess capacity, to markets where we see attractive growth, the ability to value them up over time, and we're in markets that actually grow. And that's what we've done for 90 years in cellulosics and we'll keep doing it.

所以讓我把這個問題分成兩個部分來討論。首先是我們對世界需求的整體看法，然後我再談談問題的第二部分。整體需求，正如我所提到的，我們沒有看到香菸的整體需求發生顯著變化。我們預計中國以外地區將出現緩慢下滑。如果你看一下中國初級階段的需求，我認為它實際上比我們任何人想像的都要穩定得多。2011、2012 和 2013 年出現了庫存過剩的情況。然後，他們進行了去庫存化，並與我們和其他公司透過合資企業進行了後向整合，這導致該市場出現了巨大的波動。但從根本上來說，我認為它是穩定的。我還要指出的是，目前，中國對帶絲束進口的敞口已下降至我們該部門收入的 5% 左右，或公司層級的 0.5%。因此，我們現在對這個問題的關注度已大大降低，因為中國內部發生的事情。我們對這項業務的看法的關鍵要素與以往一樣。我們致力於盡最大努力經營好我們的業務。我認為我們在這方面做得很好。因此，我們在中國以外地區獲得了大量的銷售量，其中三分之二是透過長期協議獲得的，這些協議為我們的客戶和我們提供了銷售量和價格的穩定。顯然，我們今年正在積極追求生產力，並努力降低我們認為可以改善的成本，包括我們的原材料。這將抵消我們今年預期的價格下跌。但對我們的故事來說最重要的是資產面。當我們在中國增加產能時，我們削減了英國的產能。現在，我們只剩下最後的片狀煤炭資產、最大的、成本最低的資產和後向整合的煤炭。而我們剩下的拖曳能力也隨之下降。因此，我們專注於如何填補剩餘產能和過剩產能，包括我們的創新可能帶來的衰退。所以我在這通電話開始時就告訴過你們，我們在紡織品領域取得了巨大的成功。我們在無紡布領域也取得了成功，今年該領域的銷售額將比去年實現強勁的兩位數成長。儘管利潤率不低，但與公司平均水平相當，具有吸引力。這就是我們如何填補這些資產並推動該業務的淨利潤成長。因此，我們將把這些資產、這些過剩產能重新用於我們看到有吸引力的成長、能夠隨著時間的推移而升值的市場，而我們正處於真正成長的市場中。這就是我們 90 年來在纖維素領域所做的事情，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. You mentioned mix. We've talked a lot about mix improvements and how that's going to help drive -- help support growth. But I was wondering if like productivity efforts and cost controls can also add to margin improvement over the next 2 or 3 years.

丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯 (Laurence)。您提到了混合。我們已經討論了很多有關組合改進以及它將如何幫助推動——幫助支持成長。但我想知道，在未來 2 到 3 年內，生產力努力和成本控制是否也能促進利潤率的提升。

Well, over the next 2 to 3 years, what we've been talking about is we do have cost productivity goals. To some degree, those are being used to help offset some of the increase in manufacturing costs, some of the turnaround costs, et cetera. So our productivity is helping us grow in the right places. But you only see some growth in some of our SG&A and R&D areas. Manufacturing does an outstanding job offsetting inflation, trying to give us a little bit more than that. But again those investments, what we call cost increases, they are investments. And you need to see those increases because that's what drives the future growth profile of this company.

嗯，在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，我們一直在談論的是我們確實有成本生產力目標。在某種程度上，這些被用來幫助抵銷部分製造成本的增加、部分週轉成本等等。因此，我們的生產力正在幫助我們在正確的地方成長。但您只會看到我們的部分銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 和研發領域有所成長。製造業在抵消通貨膨脹方面做得非常出色，並試圖為我們帶來更多收益。但這些投資，也就是我們所說的成本增加，都是投資。您需要看到這些成長，因為這是推動該公司未來成長的動力。

Okay. And then with the solar field volumes, should we think about the cadence going forward that there will be like a very strong period of, say, 1 to 2 quarters followed by some weakness? Is that how of it kind of plays out like over, I don't know, over a period of quarters and years?

好的。然後，對於太陽場的體積，我們是否應該考慮未來的節奏，即會出現一個非常強勁的時期，比如說 1 到 2 個季度，然後是一段疲軟期？我不知道，這是不是像在幾個季度或幾年的時間內那樣發展的結果？

Yes, these are these huge concentrated solar power arrays, these mirrors that are out in the desert concentrating sun. They're massive projects. And once they finish the construction, in a couple of weeks they fill the plant up with fluid. So you will literally build this inventory over like a year, 1.5 years and then you fill it. So it comes in chunky bits in quarters and across years. It's very attractive business. We love it. But it has a tendency to be a little chunky.

是的，這些都是巨大的聚光太陽能電池陣列，這些鏡子位於沙漠中，用於聚光太陽。這些都是大型專案。一旦他們完成施工，幾週後他們就會將工廠注滿液體。因此，您實際上將在一年或一年半的時間內建立這個庫存，然後將其填滿。因此，它是按季度和跨年度分批出現的。這是非常吸引人的生意。我們喜歡它。但它有點笨重。

The good news is the new revenue recognition method will smooth that out a little bit better because it will be more based on goods issued rather than delivered.

好消息是，新的收入確認方法將更好地解決這個問題，因為它將更多地基於發出的貨物而不是交付的貨物。

Our next question comes from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering and Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tudor、Pickering 和 Holt 的 Matthew Blair。

I wanted to go back to the accounting impact. Curt, I think you said that it provided about a $0.10 EPS boost in Q1 but would not affect really the full year number. Could you talk about when that $0.10 benefit would roll off as we progress through the rest of the year?

我想回到會計影響的問題。Curt，我認為您說過它為第一季帶來了約 0.10 美元的每股收益成長，但不會對全年業績產生實際影響。您能否談談，隨著我們在今年剩餘時間內推進，這 0.10 美元的福利何時會取消？

Sure. If I think about revenue recognition and the new method compared to 2017, what you're going to see is you'll see a little bit of this same impact in the second quarter but on a smaller degree. It will start reversing in the third quarter and then you'll really feel the reversal in the fourth.

當然。如果我考慮收入確認和與 2017 年相比的新方法，你會看到第二季會出現相同的影響，但程度較小。它將在第三季度開始逆轉，然後你會在第四季度真正感受到逆轉。

Got it. And then we've also seen some price increases come through from Eastman that were attributable to freight surcharges. Did you have any volume impacts in the quarter due to logistics restrictions? And what percent of your product is moved by truck?

知道了。然後，我們也看到伊士曼因運費附加費而提高了一些價格。由於物流限制，本季的銷售是否受到影響？你們的產品中有多少比例是透過卡車運輸的？

So we -- first of all, we haven't seen any impact on volume due to sort of logistical constraints. So we're meeting every customer need and order across the planet. Our supply chain does sort of miraculous things every day. When you think about how we didn't miss an order through the hurricanes last year, when you think about the phenomenal things we did of bringing acetic acid into the site during the coal gas interruption and also managing a very complex inventory supply chain problem to serve all of our customers last year and not miss any orders through that recovery effort, we're really good at this. And so we've got it covered on the logistical front. We are seeing higher costs, like everyone else, for the cost of trucking, which isn't a huge portion of our cost structure when it comes to logistics. And we're pricing to recover it like everyone else is doing.

因此，首先，我們沒有看到由於物流限製而對銷售造成任何影響。因此，我們滿足全球每位客戶的需求和訂單。我們的供應鏈每天都在發生一些奇蹟。如果您想想去年我們在颶風期間沒有錯過任何訂單，當您想到我們在煤氣中斷期間將醋酸運送到現場所做的非凡工作，以及在去年管理非常複雜的庫存供應鏈問題以服務所有客戶並且在恢復工作中沒有錯過任何訂單時，我們在這方面確實很擅長。因此，我們在後勤方面已經做好了準備。和其他人一樣，我們也看到卡車運輸成本的上漲，但就物流而言，卡車運輸在我們的成本結構中所佔比例並不大。我們正在為恢復它定價，就像其他人所做的那樣。

Our final question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

There was a lot of volatility in Q1 on propylene and ethylene. I guess, going forward, would you expect your propylene-based products to increase, given recent inflation? Or would that be a headwind?

第一季丙烯和乙烯價格波動較大。我想，考慮到最近的通貨膨脹，您是否預期您的丙烯基產品價格會上漲？或者這會是一股逆風？

On the propylene side, I think what I'd say is we expect stability, right? It's been good pricing improvements through the first quarter. We expect those mostly to hold into the second and that business to be stable through the year. Ethylene is obviously a different story. But even on there, the ethylene derivatives are pretty stable. So we're just down to the bulk ethylene, where obviously prices are a lot lower, which is really a second half impact. You have to remember the second quarter has our shutdown in it with one of our crackers. So we just aren't producing much excess ethylene in the second quarter. So this is really more about the second half when you think about that.

在丙烯方面，我認為我們期待穩定，對嗎？第一季的價格走勢良好。我們預計這些業務大部分將保持第二季的穩定。乙烯顯然是另一回事。但即使在那裡，乙烯衍生物也相當穩定。因此，我們只討論大宗乙烯，其價格顯然要低得多，這確實對下半年產生了影響。您必須記住，第二季我們的一個餅乾生產廠將停產。因此，我們在第二季不會生產太多過剩的乙烯。所以，如果你考慮這一點的話，這實際上更多的是關於下半部分。

Okay, thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. A replay of this call will be available on our website later this morning. Thanks again.

好的，再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。通話的重播將於今天上午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。再次感謝。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。