伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company second-quarter 2016 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website at www.Eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學公司2016年第二季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議將在伊士曼網站www.Eastman.com上進行現場直播。現在我們將把電話交給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部門的Greg Riddle先生。先生，請開始。

Okay, thanks Ron, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Louis Reavis, Manager of Investor Relations.

好的，謝謝Ron，大家早安。感謝您加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席兼執行長Mark Costa、執行副總裁兼財務長Curt Espeland以及投資者關係經理Louis Reavis。

Before we begin I'll cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the Company's second quarter 2016 financial results news release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including the Form 10-Q filed for first quarter 2016 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for second quarter 2016.

在開始之前，我將介紹兩點。首先，在本次演講中，您將聽到一些關於我們計劃和預期的前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能會有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司2016年第二季度財務業績新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括2016年第一季提交的10-Q表和即將提交的2016年第二季度10-Q表。

Second, earnings per share and operating earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core costs, charges, and gains. A reconciliation to the most directly-comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded items, are available in the second-quarter 2016 financial results news release, that could be found on our website, www.Eastman.com in the investors section. Projections of future earnings also exclude any non-core unusual or non-recurring items. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

其次，本報告中提及的每股盈餘和營業收益不包括某些非核心成本、費用和收益。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表及其他相關揭露資訊（包括排除項目的描述）可在 2016 年第二季財務業績新聞稿中找到，新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.Eastman.com 的「投資者」版中找到。未來收益預測也不包括任何非核心異常或非經常性項目。至此，我將把電話交給馬克。

Good morning everyone. I'll start on slide 3. I'll begin my comments with strategic highlights for the second quarter and first half of 2016.

大家早安。我從第三張投影片開始。我將先介紹2016年第二季和上半年的策略重點。

We continue to make solid progress in executing our strategy of becoming a more specialty chemical Company. During the quarter, we continued to upgrade the quality of our product mix by growing high margin specialty product lines, particularly in Advanced Materials and Additives and Functional Products. In the first half, AM delivered 14% growth over last year on top of 40% growth in 2015 over 2014. We did it primarily through organic volume and mix, and a highly attractive bolt-on acquisition.

我們在實施成為更專業的化學品公司的策略方面繼續取得紮實進展。本季度，我們透過增加高利潤的特種產品線，尤其是先進材料、添加劑和功能性產品，持續提升產品組合的品質。上半年，先進材料業務年增14%，而2015年年增40%。這主要得益於有機產量和產品組合的成長，以及一項極具吸引力的補充性收購。

As growing innovative high-value products is a key component of our strategy, I met with several customers in Europe recently to see how our innovative strategies are proceeding in action, and how we're helping our customers win through innovation. In Germany, I met with a leading manufacturer of medical devices for the operating theatre. They've been in search of a polymer that can withstand the new stronger disinfectants being used in hospitals, which is causing cracking with existing polymers.

由於發展創新高價值產品是我們策略的關鍵組成部分，我最近在歐洲會見了幾位客戶，了解我們的創新策略如何付諸實踐，以及我們如何幫助客戶透過創新取勝。在德國，我與一家領先的手術室醫療器材製造商會面。他們一直在尋找一種能夠耐受醫院正在使用的新型強力消毒劑的聚合物，因為這種消毒劑會導致現有聚合物開裂。

The Company tested a lot of polymers, all of which failed to deliver the needed chemical resistance; however Tritan delivered on the challenge by providing the required blend of chemical resistance and durability. This has positioned Tritan as a material choice in both clear and opaque applications. Next up for Tritan are applications in safety and protection devices.

本公司測試了許多聚合物，但均未能達到所需的耐化學性；而Tritan則成功應對挑戰，兼具耐化學性和耐用性。這使得Tritan成為透明和不透明應用的理想材料。 Tritan的下一步發展方向是安全和防護裝備應用。

Also in Nienburg, Germany, we've successfully started up our new Crystex technology. This improves our cost position by better than 20%. We're also creating the opportunity for a more differentiated product slate in Crystex.

此外，我們在德國寧堡成功啟動了全新的Crystex技術。這使我們的成本優勢提升了20%以上。我們也為Crystex更具差異化的產品組合創造了機會。

This new technology pushes the boundaries of thermal stability, dispersion, and flow, all important properties of insoluble sulfur, which can help our customers maximize the productivity of their operations. With the conversion, we are rolling out several new Crystex products with differentiated cost and/or performance, and we are working with several customers to get our products to market.

這項新技術突破了熱穩定性、分散性和流動性等不溶性硫磺的重要特性，能夠幫助我們的客戶最大限度地提高生產效率。隨著這項技術的轉化，我們正在推出幾款具有差異化成本和/或效能的Crystex新產品，並正在與多家客戶合作，將產品推向市場。

Early indications of performance are very positive, and we anticipate having business before the end of the year. The success in Nienburg supports our investment in Kuantan, Malaysia, where work continues to deploy this technology and build the largest and lowest-cost facility in the world. And this is just great evidence of us creating value through innovation, not only in heritage Eastman, but in our acquisitions, here as well as what you've already seen us deliver in inner layers of performance films.

早期業績跡象非常樂觀，我們預計年底前就能開展業務。寧堡工廠的成功支持了我們在馬來西亞關丹的投資，我們將繼續在那裡部署這項技術，並建造全球最大、成本最低的工廠。這充分證明了我們透過創新創造價值，這不僅體現在伊士曼的傳統業務上，也體現在我們收購的專案中，以及您已經看到我們在高性能薄膜內層領域的成就。

Finally we've recently launched Aerafin. It's a family of new adhesive polymers for hygiene and packaging markets, leveraging Eastman's olefin technology platform, which expands our offering beyond adhesive resins to adhesive polymers. The need in this market at the consumer level is for lower adhesives, and Aerafin is recognized as best-in-class on that front.

最後，我們最近推出了Aerafin。這是一款面向衛生和包裝市場的新型黏合劑聚合物系列，利用伊士曼的烯烴技術平台，將我們的產品範圍從黏合劑樹脂擴展到黏合劑聚合物。該市場在消費層面的需求是更低的黏合劑含量，而Aerafin在這方面被公認為同類產品中的佼佼者。

In addition to loader, Aerafin provides a more robust operating environment, enabling higher line speeds at lower temperatures. I'm incredibly excited and very proud of how we are driving innovation and customer engagement. As I have spent a lot of time out in the marketplace, it's great to see the evidence of these wins, which gives me great confidence we're on the right track to drive growth through innovation.

除了裝載機之外，Aerafin 還提供了更強大的操作環境，能夠在更低的溫度下實現更高的生產線速度。我為我們推動創新和客戶參與的方式感到無比興奮和自豪。我花了很多時間在市場上，很高興看到這些成果，這讓我更加堅信我們正走在透過創新推動成長的正確道路上。

While we are seeing growth in innovative specialty products, we're also facing increasing macro challenges, particularly in Chemical Intermediates. We're pulling all levers to mitigate the impact of these challenges. On the cost management front, we remain well on track with our cost reduction efforts to deliver $100 million to the bottom line, without sacrificing our long-term growth initiatives. And we are making progress with the process we restarted earlier this year to divest our merchant ethylene, as well as potentially other commodity olefin product lines.

雖然我們的創新特種產品業務正在成長，但我們也面臨日益嚴峻的宏觀挑戰，尤其是在化學中間體領域。我們正在竭盡全力減輕這些挑戰的影響。在成本管理方面，我們仍在穩步推進成本削減計劃，力爭在不犧牲長期成長計劃的前提下，實現1億美元的淨利潤。此外，我們今年稍早重啟的剝離商用乙烯以及其他潛在商品烯烴產品線的流程也正在取得進展。

Our cash engine continues to generate very impressive free cash flow, as we are on track to deliver another great year of $900 million, enabling our strong dividend, deleveraging, and accelerating our share repurchases. While our second-quarter earnings overall are disappointing, we continue to deliver compelling results in Advanced Materials and Additives and Functional Products, and I'm confident, as we get the challenges for Chemical Intermediates behind us and we stabilize Fibers, Eastman will emerge stronger than ever. Now I'll turn it over to Curt to discuss the corporate and segment results.

我們的現金引擎持續產生非常可觀的自由現金流，我們有望再創佳績，實現9億美元的營收，這將助力我們派發豐厚的股息，實現去槓桿，並加速股票回購。儘管第二季的業績總體令人失望，但我們在先進材料、添加劑和功能產品領域繼續取得令人矚目的業績。我相信，隨著我們克服化學中間體業務的挑戰，並穩定纖維業務，伊士曼將比以往任何時候都更強大。現在，請Curt討論公司和各部門的表現。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. I know its been a busy week, so I appreciate you joining us this morning.

謝謝馬克，大家早安。我知道這週很忙，所以很感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

I'll start with our corporate results on slide 5. Overall sales revenue decreased, primarily due to lower selling prices, particularly in Chemical Intermediates. Volume was down slightly, with the decline in Fibers mostly offset by an increase in Advanced Materials. Our operating earnings decreased, primarily due to declines in Chemical Intermediates and Fiber.

我先從投影片5上的公司業績開始介紹。整體銷售收入下降，主要是因為銷售價格下降，尤其是化學中間體業務。銷量略有下降，纖維業務的下滑大部分被先進材料業務的成長所抵消。我們的營業利潤下降，主要是因為化學中間體和纖維業務的下滑。

Despite the challenges, our operating margin was above 16%, and adjusted earnings per share was $1.68 for the quarter. By no means are we satisfied with the business environment we find ourselves in, and the negative impact it is having on our results, thus we are taking additional actions to mitigate the challenges we face, and Mark will outline these actions in a few minutes.

儘管面臨挑戰，我們的營業利潤率仍超過16%，本季調整後每股收益為1.68美元。我們對目前的商業環境及其對業績造成的負面影響深感不滿，因此我們正在採取額外措施來緩解我們面臨的挑戰。馬克將在幾分鐘後概述這些措施。

Moving next to the segment results, starting with Advanced Materials on slide 6, which delivered a great first half of the year. Second-quarter sales revenue was relatively unchanged, as higher sales volume of premium products including Saflex acoustic inner layers and Tritan copolyester was offset by lower selling prices, primarily for copolyesters, attributed to lower raw material costs, such as paraxylene.

接下來是各部門的業績，首先是幻燈片6上的先進材料部門，該部門上半年業績表現優異。第二季銷售收入基本上保持不變，原因是Saflex隔音內層和Tritan共聚酯等高端產品銷售的成長，被主要由於對二甲苯等原材料成本下降而導致的共聚酯（主要為共聚酯）售價的下降所抵消。

One other point on second-quarter volumes, Advanced Materials experienced some destocking in the first quarter of 2015, followed by a restocking in second quarter 2015. So we are very pleased with these results for our second quarter 2016, especially given the tough comp.

關於第二季銷售的另一點，先進材料在 2015 年第一季經歷了一些去庫存化，隨後在 2015 年第二季進行了補庫存。因此，我們對 2016 年第二季的業績非常滿意，尤其是考慮到嚴峻的競爭情況。

Year-over-year operating earnings were relatively unchanged. Sequentially, operating earnings increased by $24 million or more than 20%, driven by a seasonal increase in sales volume, including another quarterly volume record for Tritan copolyester.

營業利潤較去年同期基本持平。受季節性銷售成長（包括Tritan共聚酯再創季度銷售紀錄）的推動，營業利潤季增2,400萬美元，增幅超過20%。

And for the first half, operating earnings increased year-over-year by 14% or $30 million, driven by a 5% increase in sales volume, improved product mix, and lower unit costs due to higher capacity utilization. As a result, first-half of 2016 operating margins increased to 19.4%, an approximately 200 basis point improvement over the first half of 2015.

上半年，營業利潤年增14%，增幅達3000萬美元，這得益於銷售成長5%、產品組合優化以及產能利用率提高帶來的單位成本下降。因此，2016年上半年營業利益率增至19.4%，較2015年上半年提升約200個基點。

For the back half of the year, underlying business performance should remain strong, as Advanced Materials continue to execute its strategy of volume growth, mix improvement, and fixed cost leverage. To underscore how well this business is executing this strategy, in 2015, Advanced Materials increased earnings by almost 40%, and we expect to build on that success this year. Given the results of the first half of 2016 and our strong outlook for the second half, Advanced Materials is positioned to deliver double digit earnings growth in 2016. We are delivering compelling proof of our ability to drive growth through innovation, even in a difficult macro environment.

今年下半年，先進材料業務的基本業務表現預計將保持強勁，因為其將繼續執行其產量成長、產品組合優化和固定成本槓桿策略。為了凸顯該業務執行此策略的優異表現，2015年，先進材料業務的獲利成長了近40%，我們預計今年將在此基礎上再創佳績。鑑於2016年上半年的業績以及我們對下半年的強勁展望，先進材料業務預計在2016年實現兩位數的獲利成長。我們正在用令人信服的證據證明，即使在艱難的宏觀環境下，我們也能透過創新推動成長。

Now to Additives and Functional Products on slide 7. Overall, a solid quarter despite short-term challenges, revenue decline due to lower selling prices attributed to lower raw material costs, 2% volume growth from many attractive end markets including strong growth for Crystex, for our tire resins, and for animal nutrition products was offset by volume and mix declines in product lines exposed to energy and industrial construction markets.

現在就來看看投影片 7 上的添加劑和功能產品。總體而言，儘管面臨短期挑戰，但由於原材料成本降低導致銷售價格下降，收入下降，許多有吸引力的終端市場（包括 Crystex、輪胎樹脂和動物營養產品的強勁增長）的銷量增長 2%，但本季度業績表現穩健，但這些增長被面向能源和工業建築市場的產品線的銷量和組合下降所抵消。

Operating earnings decreased primarily due to lower selling prices more than offsetting lower raw material costs. And the operating margin remains solid at 21.8%, slightly above the year-ago period. As I look at full-year 2016, we expect to grow volumes and expect our prices to stabilize.

營業利潤下降主要由於銷售價格下降，抵銷了原材料成本下降的影響。營業利益率維持穩定，達21.8%，略高於去年同期。展望2016年全年，我們預期銷量將有所成長，價格也將趨於穩定。

Our commercial teams are doing a great job in managing trade-offs and maintaining margins and customer engagement for innovation and growth. We will continue to face macroeconomic and competitive challenges, but given the strength of the portfolio of businesses in this segment, and attractive end markets, Additives and Functional Products remains on track with our previous expectations for full-year earnings to be slightly down, which would be a solid result in the current business climate.

我們的商務團隊在權衡利弊、維持利潤率和客戶參與度以促進創新和成長方面表現出色。我們將繼續面臨宏觀經濟和競爭挑戰，但鑑於該業務板塊的強勁業務組合以及極具吸引力的終端市場，添加劑和功能性產品板塊的業績仍將保持良好勢頭，我們此前預計全年盈利將略有下降，但在當前的商業環境下，這無疑是一個穩健的業績。

Now to Fibers on slide 8. Second-quarter revenue, volume and earnings were slightly below our expectations. Sales revenue decreased primarily due to lower sales volume, particularly for acetate tow, flake, and yarn, combined with lower selling prices, particularly for tow.

現在就來看看幻燈片8上的纖維業務。第二季的營收、銷售和收益略低於我們的預期。銷售收入下降主要是因為銷售量下降，尤其是醋酸纖維絲束、薄片和紗線，以及銷售價格下降，尤其是絲束。

The decline in acetate tow sales volume was due to customer inventory destocking in China, consistent with our expectations for volumes to be down to about 10% for the year. The lower acetate flake sales volume was due to timing of shipments to our China acetate tow joint venture. Lower yarn volume was due to trade issues impacting our customers.

醋酸絲束銷售下降是由於中國客戶庫存減少，這與我們對全年銷售量下降約10%的預期一致。醋酸片銷售下降是因為我們向中國醋酸絲束合資企業出貨的時間安排。紗線銷售下降是由於貿易問題影響了我們的客戶。

Earnings for the second quarter decreased due to lower sales volume. Despite the decline in volume, operating margins were about 31%, as our cost reduction efforts offset the decline in prices. Looking at the full year of 2016, we expect second-half earnings to be similar to first half, which is slightly below our previous expectations, as we are experiencing some short-term challenges in acetate flake and yarn which is an incremental headwind.

由於銷量下降，第二季獲利有所下降。儘管銷量下降，但由於我們降低成本的努力抵消了價格下跌的影響，營業利潤率仍約為31%。展望2016年全年，我們預計下半年獲利將與上半年持平，略低於我們先前的預期，因為我們在醋酸纖維片和紗線方面面臨一些短期挑戰，這會帶來一些增量逆風。

And I'll add that as we have discussed for some time now, in the last earnings call and at investor conferences, price risk exists going into 2017. Given the current lower capacity utilization in acetate tow, and the lack of additional asset rationalizations beyond what we did in the United Kingdom, the risk of competitors chasing share with price does exist, and we have seen our competitors attempt this strategy, which has created pricing pressure in our contract discussions for next year. Frankly, I don't understand the logic of these actions in a flat to declining growth business, but yet here we are.

我還要補充一點，正如我們在上次財報電話會議和投資者會議上討論過的那樣，2017年價格風險仍然存在。鑑於目前醋酸絲束的產能利用率較低，而且除了我們在英國實施的措施外，缺乏其他資產合理化措施，競爭對手以價格追逐市場份額的風險確實存在。我們已經看到競爭對手嘗試這種策略，這給我們明年的合約談判帶來了價格壓力。坦白說，我不明白在成長持平甚至下滑的業務中採取這些行動的邏輯，但我們目前的情況就是這樣。

What I do understand and what I like about Eastman and our future in this industry is we have the lowest cost position from the largest scale with backward integration with the flake, matched with our tow position in Tennessee, Korea and China. And our customers place significant strategic value on both our asset footprint and our ability to innovate and deliver high-quality reliable product.

我對伊士曼以及我們在這個行業的未來確實有了解，也看好我們，因為我們擁有規模最大、成本最低的優勢，並且與片狀化學品業務實現了後向整合，這與我們在田納西州、韓國和中國的領先地位相得益彰。我們的客戶非常重視我們的資產佈局以及我們創新和提供高品質可靠產品的能力。

Further, our vertical and horizontal integration creates tremendous value and an innovation capability for cellulosic products and additives in Functional Products and Advanced Materials, and we have a track record of innovation from this technology platform that is well established over decades. So I am confident about our long-term position and strongly believe this will continue to be a valuable business for Eastman going forward.

此外，我們的縱向和橫向整合為功能產品和先進材料領域的纖維素產品及添加劑創造了巨大的價值和創新能力，並且我們憑藉該技術平台數十年來積累的創新經驗，取得了驕人的成績。因此，我對我們的長期地位充滿信心，並堅信這將繼續成為伊士曼未來一項寶貴的業務。

I'll finish up the segment review of Chemical Intermediates on slide 9. Sales revenue decreased due to lower selling prices, which were mostly the result of negative impact of lower market prices for propylene, ethylene and methanol, and continued competitive pressure from weak demand in Asia-Pacific. Operating earnings decreased due to lower selling prices more than offset lower raw material costs, in addition to higher planned maintenance costs.

我將在幻燈片9上完成化學中間體的分部回顧。銷售收入的下降是由於銷售價格下降，這主要是由於丙烯、乙烯和甲醇市場價格下跌的負面影響，以及亞太地區需求疲軟帶來的持續競爭壓力。營業利潤的下降是由於銷售價格下降，這超過了原材料成本下降以及計劃維護成本上升的影響。

Looking at the full year of 2016, we expect a number of factors to impact results. We expect olefin margins to remain under pressure, as the increase in oil prices has not yet translated to improving olefin prices. In particular, bulk ethylene prices have been disappointing, as we've seen US prices remain significantly discounted versus the rest of the world.

展望2016年全年，我們預期許多因素將影響業績。我們預期烯烴利潤率將繼續承壓，因為油價上漲尚未轉化為烯烴價格的上漲。尤其值得一提的是，大宗乙烯價格令人失望，因為我們看到美國價格相對於世界其他地區仍有大幅折扣。

We also expect lower methanol prices to continue putting pressure on market prices for some of our acetyl and amines product lines. And competitive pressures, particularly from competitors in Asia have intensified, and we expect this will continue through the back half of the year. Considering the low oil environment, excess global capacity in olefins and methanol, and increased competitive pressures due to slow economic growth, we expect second-half year earnings to be below first half, with the sequential improvement for both third and fourth quarters, which should continue into next year.

我們也預計，較低的甲醇價格將繼續對我們部分乙醯基和胺類產品線的市場價格造成壓力。競爭壓力，尤其是來自亞洲競爭對手的壓力，已經加劇，我們預計這種壓力將持續到下半年。考慮到低油價環境、全球烯烴和甲醇產能過剩以及經濟成長放緩導致的競爭壓力加劇，我們預計下半年獲利將低於上半年，但第三季和第四季的獲利將環比改善，並將持續到明年。

Lastly, I'll give you a quick update on our process for divesting our merchant ethylene capacity, and potentially certain commodity olefin product lines. We continue our discussions with potential buyers, and still expect this process will take the greater part of this year to resolve itself. As you would expect, we'll remain disciplined and patient sellers as we move through the process.

最後，我將簡要介紹我們剝離商用乙烯產能以及可能剝離某些商品烯烴產品線的流程。我們仍在與潛在買家進行洽談，預計該流程將在今年大部分時間完成。正如您所期望的，在整個過程中，我們將保持紀律和耐心。

On slide 10, I'll transition to an overview of our cash flow and other financial highlight for second quarter. We continue to do an excellent job of generating cash, with second-quarter operating cash flow of approximately $500 million. We had nominal income tax payments and no contributions to our US pension plans in the quarter. These payments are typically in the second half of the year, and we expect that will be the case in 2016.

在第10張投影片上，我將概述我們第二季的現金流量和其他財務亮點。我們繼續出色地創造現金，第二季的營運現金流約為5億美元。本季我們繳納了少量所得稅，並且沒有向美國退休金計畫繳納任何款項。這些款項通常在下半年支付，我們預計2016年也將如此。

Capital expenditures totaled $124 million. We continue to manage the pace of capital spending with the current economic environment, while still maintaining our growth investments, and thus have reduced our full-year capital expenditures to be between $600 million and $625 million. Free cash flow for the quarter was a very strong $370 million, and during the quarter, we reduced net debt by over $300 million, paid our second quarter dividend of $68 million, and repurchased $25 million of our shares.

資本支出總計1.24億美元。我們繼續根據當前經濟環境調整資本支出節奏，同時保持成長性投資，因此已將全年資本支出下調至6億至6.25億美元之間。本季自由現金流強勁，達3.7億美元。本季度，我們減少了超過3億美元的淨債務，支付了6,800萬美元的第二季股息，並回購了價值2,500萬美元的股票。

Also during the quarter, we successfully sold EUR500 million 1.5% notes due 2023 in the European public debt market, with proceeds used to repay $500 million of our 2.4% note due in June of 2017, as well as some other borrowings. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter was just over 21%, aided by an expected discrete tax benefit. We continue to expect our full-year tax rate will be between 24% and 25%, reflecting the continued benefits of our improvement in business operations. And lastly, we remain on track to generate more than $900 million of free cash flow for the year, which is a very strong performance in this current environment. With that, I'll turn it back over to Mark.

本季度，我們成功在歐洲公共債務市場發行了5億歐元、2023年到期、利率為1.5%的票據，所得款項用於償還2017年6月到期、利率為2.4%的5億美元票據以及其他一些借款。受預期的單獨稅收優惠影響，我們第二季的實際稅率略高於21%。我們預計全年稅率將在24%至25%之間，這反映了我們業務營運改善的持續效益。最後，我們仍有望在今年創造超過9億美元的自由現金流，在當前環境下，這已是非常強勁的表現。接下來，我將把時間交還給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. I'll transition to our outlook on slide 11. Looking at the back half of the year, we expect our innovative specialty businesses will continue to grow strongly, improving product mix, and accelerating our overall earnings growth. We continue to see the benefits of our vertical and horizontal integration, as it enables an advantaged cost position and delivers capital efficient earnings growth in our specialties.

謝謝，Curt。我將在第11張投影片上介紹我們的展望。展望下半年，我們預期創新特種業務將持續強勁成長，改善產品組合，並加速我們的整體獲利成長。我們繼續看到縱向和橫向整合的優勢，因為它使我們在特種業務中佔據優勢成本優勢，並實現資本高效的獲利成長。

We will also continue to benefit from the acquisitions, which are creating value in both cost synergies and accelerating revenue growth. We remain committed to our aggressive cost reduction targets, and are on track with them. After reducing debt, we also expect to accelerate share repurchases in the back half of the year.

我們也將繼續受益於收購，這些收購在成本協同效應和加速收入成長方面創造了價值。我們將繼續致力於積極的成本削減目標，並且正在穩步推進。在削減債務後，我們也預計在下半年加快股票回購。

In the near term, we have a number of challenges, particularly impacting Chemical Intermediates, and these have been increasing. As Curt mentioned, lower olefin margins and lower methanol prices are headwinds. In particular, the most significant change in our expectation was US ethylene prices not tracking up with oil and global ethylene prices.

短期內，我們面臨許多挑戰，尤其對化學中間體業務影響較大，而這些挑戰仍在不斷加劇。正如Curt所提到的，烯烴利潤率下降和甲醇價格下跌是不利因素。其中，我們預期中最顯著的變化是美國乙烯價格未能跟上石油和全球乙烯價格的步伐。

We're also seeing excess supply pressure as slow economic growth is not sufficient to absorb the large amount of capacity that has been built in a number of products, especially in China, for Chemical Intermediates. Our most recent outlook was that 2016 adjusted EPS would be down about 5%. Given the challenges we face, most significantly in Chemical Intermediates and modestly in Fibers, we expect full-year 2016 EPS will be down up to 10% compared with 2015.

我們也看到供應過剩的壓力，因為經濟成長放緩不足以消化大量新增產能，尤其是在中國，尤其是化學中間體領域。我們最新的預測是，2016年調整後每股盈餘將下降約5%。鑑於我們面臨的挑戰，尤其是在化學中間體領域，以及纖維領域，我們預計2016年全年每股收益將較2015年下降高達10%。

As you think about the cadence through the rest of the year, we expect earnings in the third quarter will be similar to a second quarter, as sequential growth in operating earnings is offset by an increase in the tax rate for the quarter. Lastly I'll add that this outlook assumes current business conditions continue in the back half of the year. If the conditions improve, that would be upside.

考慮到今年剩餘時間的節奏，我們預計第三季的獲利將與第二季相似，因為營業利潤的環比成長被本季稅率的上調所抵消。最後，我要補充一點，這項展望假設當前的商業環境將在下半年持續下去。如果環境有所改善，那將是利好。

Turning next to slide 12, obviously our EPS expectations for this year are not where we want them to be, and we aren't happy about that. Given that, we are taking significant action to mitigate the impact of challenges we see in front of us. We are using all levers to improve results, not just in 2016, but going forward.

接下來是第12張投影片，顯然，我們對今年的每股盈餘預期並未達到預期，我們對此感到不滿。有鑑於此，我們正在採取重大措施，以減輕我們面臨的挑戰所帶來的影響。我們正在竭盡全力改善業績，不僅在2016年，而且在未來也是如此。

For me that begins by maintaining our commitment to innovation and market development, and doing everything we can to accelerate growth from these platforms. We've already realized commercial success from many of these platforms this year, and we are on the cusp of even bigger wins, and we are working to deliver these successes as fast as possible.

對我來說，首先要堅持我們對創新和市場開發的承諾，並盡我們所能加速這些平台的成長。今年，我們已經在許多平台上取得了商業成功，並且即將取得更大的成功，我們正在努力盡快實現這些成功。

We also remain committed to cost reduction. As I mentioned, we are on target with the cost reductions we implemented earlier this year. And as the challenges we have faced have increased, we will be removing at least another $100 million of cost towards the end of this year, to ensure that we deliver attractive earnings growth next year.

我們將繼續致力於降低成本。正如我之前提到的，我們今年稍早實施的成本削減計劃正在按計劃進行。隨著我們面臨的挑戰日益嚴峻，我們將在今年年底前再削減至少1億美元的成本，以確保明年實現可觀的獲利成長。

While our SG&A and R&D as a percentage of sales is already in the lowest quartile of our peers, we are committed to attaining this new cost reduction target without sacrificing innovation and market development. We continue to review our portfolio. This includes the process to divest our merchant ethylene capacity and some other product lines. And we will effectively manage capital allocation through this slow growth environment. This includes our strong dividend, which will increase, reducing debt, and increasing our share repurchases in the second half of 2016 and into 2017.

儘管我們的銷售、行政及行政費用（SG&A）和研發費用佔銷售額的比例已處於同業中最低的四分之一，但我們仍致力於在不犧牲創新和市場開發的情況下實現這一新的成本削減目標。我們將繼續審查我們的產品組合，包括剝離我們的商用乙烯產能和其他一些產品線。我們將在當前成長緩慢的環境下有效管理資本配置，包括增加強勁的股息、減少債務，並在2016年下半年和2017年增加股票回購。

As I look beyond 2016, we are well-positioned for growth. As these short-term challenges recede and our strong growth drivers continue, altogether I'm confident we will continue to deliver attractive earnings growth in the long term, as we transform towards a specialty portfolio. With the combined set of actions we're taking, we expect to be back on track for 8% to 12% EPS growth in 2017.

展望2016年之後，我們已做好充分的準備迎接成長。隨著這些短期挑戰逐漸消退，以及我們強勁的成長動力持續增強，我相信，隨著我們向專業投資組合轉型，我們將在長期內繼續實現具有吸引力的盈利增長。結合我們正在採取的一系列措施，我們預計2017年每股收益將重回8%至12%的增幅軌道。

I'll close with our key themes for 2016 on slide 13. We continue to have a strong portfolio of specialty businesses. And through these businesses, we are driving growth, we are innovating, and we are improving our earnings mix.

最後，我將在第13張投影片中介紹我們2016年的關鍵主題。我們將繼續擁有強大的特種業務組合。透過這些業務，我們正在推動成長，不斷創新，並不斷改善我們的獲利結構。

We face increasing challenges, particularly in Chemical Intermediates and Fibers and are responding to this challenging environment with the actions I just outlined. Our cash flow remains one of the best in our industry, and we are deploying it for a strong dividend reducing leverage and accelerating repurchases of shares. And lastly, despite near-term temporary challenges, I remain very confident in our strategy and our ability to grow earnings.

我們面臨著日益嚴峻的挑戰，尤其是在化學中間體和纖維領域，我們正在採取我剛才概述的行動來應對這個充滿挑戰的環境。我們的現金流仍然是業內最佳之一，我們正在利用這些現金流來提高股息，降低槓桿率，並加快股票回購。最後，儘管近期面臨一些暫時的挑戰，但我對我們的策略和獲利成長能力仍然充滿信心。

Eastman will emerge from these challenges stronger than ever, and will continue our journey to achieving our vision of becoming a leading specialty Company. With that, I'll turn it over to Greg.

伊士曼將以前所未有的強大實力迎接這些挑戰，並將繼續朝著成為領先特種公司的目標邁進。接下來，我將把時間交給格雷格。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電指示）

Ron, we're ready for questions.

羅恩，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

We'll take our first question from Mr. Frank Mitsch from Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行的弗蘭克·米奇先生提出的第一個問題。

Mark, obviously a large part of the reduction in 2016 outlook is related to Chemical Intermediates, and obviously you're in the process of trying to monetize some of the crackers as well as other parts of that portfolio. Given the fact that you were hitting a rougher patch than expected earlier in the year in the Chem Intermediates business, how is this impacting your outlook on when and what value, you can execute a transaction?

馬克，顯然，2016年預期利潤的下降很大一部分與化學中間體業務有關，而且您顯然正在嘗試將部分裂解裝置以及該業務組合的其他部分貨幣化。考慮到今年早些時候您在化學中間體業務方面遇到的困難比預期的要大，這對您對何時以及以何種價值進行交易的展望有何影響？

Frank, I'm going to start and let Curt finish. We're obviously pushing as hard as we can in this process. It's a pretty dynamic time, with what's going on with a lot of very temporary challenges in olefins especially, ethylene as part of the package, what we're divesting, you've got a lot of stranded ethylene in the market today in the US.

法蘭克，我先開始，等科特說完再說。我們顯然正在盡全力推進這個過程。這是一個相當動態的時期，烯烴領域尤其面臨許多暫時性的挑戰，而乙烯作為我們正在剝離的一攬子計劃的一部分，目前美國市場上有很多乙烯庫存。

When you look at it ethylene prices here are almost $0.20 a pound lower than the globe, so it's pretty disconnected. So we have to make sure we think about the long-term value of this business and get an appropriate price. We do have engaged buyers who are very seriously considering it, but we are working through the steps of it.

看看這裡，乙烯價格比全球低了近0.20美元/磅，所以這相當脫節。所以我們必須確保考慮這項業務的長期價值，並獲得合適的價格。我們確實有一些正在認真考慮的買家，但我們正在逐步推進。

If I could add, again, as we mentioned, there have been a number of management presentations that have occurred, and there again there are active conversations going on. But as you already mentioned, Frank, we recognize it's currently a tough economic environment with ethylene margins right now, so really, in order for this to really progress, our belief is it really requires two strategic parties, buyers or sellers, that understand the long-term value of olefins and the value of the quality of assets that we have.

補充一下，正如我們之前提到的，我們已經進行了多次管理層演示，雙方也進行了積極的溝通。但正如你之前提到的，弗蘭克，我們認識到目前的經濟環境對乙烯利潤率來說非常艱難。因此，為了真正取得進展，我們認為這需要兩方策略夥伴——買方和賣方——都了解烯烴的長期價值以及我們擁有的優質資產的價值。

So my sense is everyone is looking at that way but we'll see how it plays out. And in regards to timing it's still a top priority for us. We've got a great team working on it, but we'll have to be disciplined as we go through the process and it will still take a greater part of this year to see how this plays out.

所以我覺得大家都在關注這件事，但我們會看看結果如何。至於時間安排，這仍然是我們的首要任務。我們有一個很棒的團隊在做這件事，但我們必須在整個過程中保持紀律，而且我們還需要今年的大部分時間才能看到結果。

Okay, terrific. And in terms of the outlook approaching or down, could be down 10%, what sort of olefin margin are you embedding in that forecast? IE, are you assuming second quarter levels or are you assuming June levels, are you assuming July levels? I just want to try and get a baseline there as to what is embedded in that outlook.

好的，太棒了。就接近或下降的前景而言，可能會下降10%，您在預測中嵌入了多少烯烴利潤率？例如，您假設的是第二季的水平，還是6月份的水平，還是7月份的水平？我只是想嘗試了解這個前景中嵌入了哪些內容。

Well Frank you just summarized the problem with forecasting olefins. You pick a week, and you can have a different answer. There's a lot of volatility going on right now, as I mentioned.

嗯，弗蘭克，你剛剛總結了預測烯烴價格的問題。你選擇一周，可能會得到不同的答案。正如我所提到的，現在市場波動很大。

On the olefin side, we're seeing especially ethylene but as well as propylene being fairly depressed in the US relative to what's gone on outside the US, so even though oil has improved, we haven't really seen a logical improvement of those olefin prices, and that's been a disappointment in the second quarter and we certainly revised our outlook for the rest of the year to reflect the current conditions that have been in the June early July time frame, when we built our forecast.

在烯烴方面，我們看到尤其是乙烯，但與美國以外地區相比，美國的丙烯價格相當低迷，因此，儘管石油價格有所改善，但我們並沒有真正看到烯烴價格出現合理的改善，這是第二季度令人失望的結果，我們當然修改了對今年剩餘時間的展望，以反映我們在 6 月初 7 月份制定預測時的當前狀況。

I would also note that while the olefin prices haven't gone up much, the propane prices and ethane prices have, especially propane. So they have tracked up with oil, with the significant improvement in global export capacity to get the propane out of the country. So that's created some compression here that on a long-term basis I don't think it plays out.

我還要指出的是，雖然烯烴價格沒有大幅上漲，但丙烷和乙烷價格卻上漲了，尤其是丙烷。因此，它們的價格與石油價格同步上漲，因為全球丙烷出口能力顯著增強，可以有效地將丙烷運出美國。這造成了一些壓力，但從長遠來看，我認為這種情況不會持續下去。

I don't think you have ethylene and propylene stranded in the US forever. There's obviously not enough derivative capacity to monetize that monomer in the globe, but that will come online, like many people have already discussed. And this disconnect will get closed and will go back to what is a normal situation, where these prices are more closely connected to the globe. Then that would be a material recovery in earnings for us when that happens in the future.

我認為乙烯和丙烯不會永遠滯留在美國。顯然，全球範圍內沒有足夠的衍生性商品產能來實現這些單體的貨幣化，但正如許多人已經討論的那樣，這些產能最終會上線。這種脫節將會消除，並恢復到正常狀態，即這些價格與全球價格更加緊密地連結在一起。當這種情況在未來發生時，這將為我們帶來盈利的實質復甦。

So I think that's all playing out as we expected, and that's the olefin story. I would note there's two other parts of the story when it comes to Chemical Intermediates. Methanol prices are 40% lower than they were a year ago, and it's the same story. Not only have they tracked down with oil, but there's oversupply in methanol, and so we haven't seen methanol prices recover really in the second quarter, as you would have expected with the recovery in oil.

所以我認為一切都如我們預期的那樣發展，這就是烯烴市場的故事。我想指出，化學中間體市場還有另外兩個面向。甲醇價格比一年前下降了40%，情況也是如此。甲醇價格不僅追隨了石油價格的上漲，而且甲醇供應過剩，因此我們在第二季度沒有看到甲醇價格真正回升，就像人們預期石油價格回升那樣。

And that's also putting pressure on the earnings in this segment, when you think about acetic acid, acetic anhydride. Competitors in Asia set the price, ultimately based on their purchased methanol cost, and that's put a lot of price pressure on those products. Not as significant as olefins for us, but still quite material. And it's even having a modest impact on Functional Means, where we have a lot of cost pass through contracts tied to methanol prices.

這也給該部門的利潤帶來了壓力，例如乙酸和乙酸酐。亞洲的競爭對手最終根據其購買的甲醇成本來定價，這給這些產品帶來了巨大的價格壓力。雖然對我們來說，影響不如烯烴那麼大，但仍然相當重要。這甚至對Functional Means也產生了一定的影響，因為我們有很多與甲醇價格掛鉤的成本轉嫁合約。

And in both acetyls and methanol, we have advantaged coal gasification, as well as disadvantaged fixed price methanol contract, and so you get some compression there. And then there's some additional pressure of course with Asian competitors with excess supply, no demand in China to absorb it so they're dumping those products all over the world.

無論是乙醯基還是甲醇，我們在煤氣化方面都佔優勢，但在固定價格甲醇合約方面則處於劣勢，因此會受到一定程度的壓縮。當然，亞洲競爭對手的供應過剩也帶來了額外的壓力，因為中國缺乏消化這些產品的需求，所以他們只能在世界各地傾倒這些產品。

I would say though, Frank, that the good news about this is that we're seeing the prices stabilize, and we're seeing evidence of this in a couple different fronts. One, we just filed an anti-dumping case in plasticizers, where we are seeing pretty extreme behavior from our Korean-based competitors, and the Commerce Department has already agreed that we have made the case for economic harm, and have launched an investigation into that.

不過，弗蘭克，我想說，好消息是我們看到價格正在穩定下來，而且我們在幾個不同的方面都看到了這方面的證據。首先，我們剛剛就增塑劑提起了反傾銷訴訟，我們發現韓國競爭對手的行為相當極端。美國商務部已經同意我們提出的經濟損害訴訟，並已對此展開調查。

We're also seeing some other products, some of our competitors in China shut down, because they are out of the money at the current pricing that they are driving in the marketplace. So I would say we think that it's bottoming, and we just need to start seeing some of the situation to improve, and that's all embedded in our guidance. But right now our guidance for the rest of the year is it stays challenging like it is now for this year.

我們也看到一些其他產品，我們在中國的一些競爭對手也倒閉了，因為以目前他們在市場上的定價，他們已經虧損了。所以我認為市場正在觸底，我們只需要看到一些情況開始好轉，這些情況都包含在我們的預期中。但目前，我們對今年剩餘時間的預期是，情況仍然像今年一樣充滿挑戰。

That's helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

We'll move to our next question from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

我們將轉到德意志銀行的 David Begleiter 提出的下一個問題。

Mark, on acetate tow, your other main competitor this week talked about similar aggressive pricing actions in the industry, and competitors chasing volume. If it not you and it's not them, it's obviously Solvay and maybe Dycell. How are the number three and four players causing so much problem in this industry?

馬克，關於醋酸絲束，你們的另一個主要競爭對手本週談到了業內類似的激進定價策略，以及競爭對手追逐產量的情況。如果不是你們，也不是他們，那顯然就是索爾維，或許還有戴賽爾。為什麼這些行業排名第三和第四的公司會為這個行業帶來如此多的問題？

Dave, I guessed this question might come up, and obviously there's been a lot of commentary in the industry already with investors about what's going on in this space. So I've spent a little time trying to put my thoughts together. And I think there's a number of things that are important to be clear about, both in the market context and what our strategy is.

戴夫，我猜到這個問題可能會被提出來，而且顯然業內和投資者已經對這個領域的現狀發表了很多評論。所以我花了一點時間整理一下自己的想法。我認為有很多事情需要明確，包括市場環境和我們的策略。

So let's start with demand. First of all, nothing has changed in our view about tow demand for this year, and moving forward. Outside of China, continues declining 1% to 2%.

那麼，我們先從需求說起。首先，我們認為今年以及未來的拖車需求沒有任何變化。中國以外的地區，拖車需求持續下降1%至2%。

We still believe that the primary issue in China this year is inventory destocking of tow, where they had way too much inventory in tow. We think that will run its course this year. There remains some uncertainty about what that will turn into next year, because while I think tow destocking will be over, we still don't have clear understanding of what's going on in cigarette demand in China, so there's a chance of some continued destocking there. But when you put it altogether, our view is tow imports into China next year will be flat, potentially modestly up.

我們仍然認為，中國今年面臨的主要問題是絲束庫存的去庫存化，他們之前的絲束庫存過剩。我們認為今年這一進程將會結束。明年的去庫存化進程仍存在一些不確定性，因為雖然我認為絲束去庫存化將會結束，但我們仍不清楚中國捲菸需求的狀況，因此中國仍有可能繼續去庫存化。但綜合來看，我們認為明年中國絲束進口量將持平，甚至可能小幅成長。

Regarding our specific performance versus our competitors, as you can see through the first half of this year in the data, we've obviously taken a bit more of a hit in volume than our competitors, and we've been clear about that, because for ten years we've been a huge beneficiary of having the largest share of imports in China, while China was growing. And there's always two sides to those positions, and when imports drop, we'll feel more of that than anyone else. But when we look through all of that, we still see that we're on track for a 10% decline in tow, and demand, nothing has changed our view about that at all.

關於我們與競爭對手的具體表現，正如您在今年上半年的數據中所看到的，我們的銷量受到的衝擊顯然比競爭對手更大，這一點我們很清楚，因為十年來，我們一直是中國進口份額最大的受益者，而中國經濟一直在增長。凡事都有兩面性，當進口量下降時，我們受到的影響比任何人都大。但縱觀所有這些因素，我們仍然看到，我們的拖運量和需求量仍將下降10%，這一點絲毫沒有改變我們的看法。

But you've got to remember that there's certain chunkiness in the buying patterns with all different customers to some degree, and so there's some chunkiness in buying patterns that will -- so for our second quarter, we're probably a little bit light compared to what we expected, but nothing material. It's also important to remember in our volume numbers that while we're seeing 10% down in tow, there's other things going on like the timing issue in flake, some yarn being off, and no longer having acetyl chemical sales to ourself in the JV we had with Solvay for making flake.

但你必須記住，不同客戶的採購模式在某種程度上都存在一定的塊狀性，所以採購模式中存在一定的塊狀性——所以對於我們第二季度而言，我們的採購量可能比預期略低，但影響不大。同樣重要的是，要記住，雖然我們的銷量下降了10%，但還有其他因素在起作用，例如片狀纖維的時機問題、一些紗線出現問題，以及我們與索爾維合資生產片狀纖維的工廠不再向自己銷售乙醯化學品。

But we are seeing some aggressive actions by all of our competitors going after share. We mentioned a long time ago, when you get a huge currency change like you do in Japan and Europe, you can think about passing out of the marketplace to chase share and not even feel the margin impact. We've seen, as you can see through the data that everyone is reporting, that we have some dynamics going on there, and the part of the story for us is some modest share loss this year outside of China, but it's pretty modest at this point.

但我們看到所有競爭對手都在積極搶佔市場份額。我們很久以前就提到過，當像日本和歐洲那樣遭遇巨大的匯率波動時，你可以考慮退出市場去追逐市場份額，甚至感覺不到利潤率受到的影響。正如大家報告的數據所示，我們已經看到，我們在中國市場出現了一些動態變化。對我們來說，今年在中國以外的市佔率略有下降，但目前來看，損失相當小。

But it's disappointing to see this happen. We've been talking about the fact that if excess capacity remains in the industry, it's entirely possible we're going to have people behave in a way where they try and chase the share with price. With these margins, it's really tempting, if you are just living for the short-term, and we're seeing some of that. But in this context, I think we've had a very clear strategy of what we're trying to do, and I just want to make sure we're clear about what we're doing.

但看到這種情況發生令人失望。我們一直在討論這樣一個事實：如果產業產能過剩持續存在，完全有可能有人會試圖以價格來爭取市場份額。在這樣的利潤率下，如果你只顧短期利益，這確實很誘人，我們也看到了一些這樣的情況。但在這種情況下，我認為我們已經有一個非常清晰的策略，明確了我們正在做的事情，我只是想確保我們清楚自己在做什麼。

First, we recognize and accept the challenges that we have in China, and so when we added capacity with CNTC, which was very low cost tow capacity, we chose to take out an equal amount of capacity in the United Kingdom, and that was relatively high cost for us. Balancing our position there and accepting those changes and market conditions. We also exited our flake JV with Solvay to reduce our costs, given we no longer need that capacity, given we shut down the UK tow situation. So we've done everything we can to sort of balance our capacity situation, and the results of what's going on in China.

首先，我們認識到並接受在中國面臨的挑戰。因此，當我們在中國菸草公司（CNTC）增加產能時，我們選擇在英國撤出同等數量的產能，這對我們來說成本相對較高。我們需要平衡在英國的地位，並接受這些變化和市場條件。我們也退出了與索爾維的小型合資企業，以降低成本，因為我們不再需要這些產能，而且我們已經關閉了英國的拖車業務。因此，我們竭盡所能來平衡我們的產能狀況以及中國市場情勢的影響。

And we are now down to being the lowest cost supplier in the world in tow. We have the largest scale asset in flake. It's backward integrated in coal, and we have the lowest cost tow asset in Tennessee, Korea, and China that's equally matched to that flake capacity. And we have no further tow assets that we can shutdown or it would just leave us long in flake, which doesn't make much sense for us.

現在，我們已成為全球成本最低的拖曳供應商。我們擁有規模最大的片狀煤資產。該資產已實現煤炭的後向整合，並且我們在田納西州、韓國和中國擁有成本最低的拖帶資產，其產能與片狀煤相當。而且，我們沒有其他可以關閉的拖曳資產，否則我們就會長期持有片狀煤，這對我們來說意義不大。

Second, we essentially have the best cost position in the industry, we have every intention of maintaining our market share outside of China. So when these competitors are trying to gain share from us, which obviously they've done, it simply results in lower prices, and therefore lower earnings and cash flow from everyone.

其次，我們基本上擁有業界最佳的成本優勢，我們致力於維持中國以外的市場份額。因此，當這些競爭對手試圖從我們身上搶佔市場份額時（他們顯然已經這麼做了），只會導致價格下降，進而導致所有人的利潤和現金流下降。

Third, we're committed to being the leading supplier to our customers based on the strength that we have and our quality and our reliability, our unique innovation capabilities, and the strength of our asset base to supply our customers. So as we look at 2017, we do expect earnings are going to be down due to this price pressure, as these contract discussions have now started early, and we're seeing this behavior from our competitors. And it's likely we'll be down 10% to 20% before you include the cost actions we just announced. But it's early, and so we're going to have to see how all these contract discussions play out for the rest of the year, and how it nets out, and we'll keep you updated.

第三，我們致力於憑藉自身實力、品質和可靠性、獨特的創新能力以及雄厚的資產基礎，成為客戶領先的供應商。展望2017年，我們預計獲利將因價格壓力而下降，因為這些合約談判已經開始，我們也看到了競爭對手的這種行為。在計入我們剛剛宣布的成本削減措施之前，我們的獲利很可能會下降10%到20%。但現在還為時過早，因此我們必須觀察今年剩餘時間這些合約談判的進展情況以及最終結果如何，屆時我們將隨時向大家通報最新情況。

When I look beyond 2017, and this is quite important, many of these new contracts are going to be multi-year contracts, providing price and supply stability for our customers. You'd also think that, given how this is all playing out, and not really working out very well for anyone, that our competitors are going to have to start looking at their cost positions like we did, and think about rationalizing high-cost assets that they all certainly have, and we'll just have to see what they choose to do.

展望2017年以後，這一點非常重要，許多新合約都將是多年期合約，為我們的客戶提供價格和供應穩定性。你也會想到，鑑於目前的情況，而且對任何一方都不利，我們的競爭對手也必須像我們一樣開始審視他們的成本狀況，並思考如何合理化他們肯定擁有的高成本資產，我們只能看看他們會怎麼做。

I would also note that we are not just sitting around waiting for what's going to happen in the tow business. Eastman has been the innovator for 90 years in cellulosics. We've innovated a huge range of new products over the years, and you've seen those great results we've had in AFP and AM, and so as we saw these things start to develop all the way back in 2014, and we knew that we had to accelerate our innovation efforts for new applications in cellulosics, and we've been doing that as ways to load these assets in new applications.

我還要指出的是，我們不會只是坐等絲束業務的進展。伊士曼在纖維素領域擁有90年的創新經驗。多年來，我們創新了大量新產品，您在AFP和AM領域也看到了我們的卓越成果。因此，當我們看到這些產品在2014年開始蓬勃發展時，我們就知道必須加快纖維素新應用的創新步伐，我們也一直在這樣做，將這些資產投入到新的應用中。

It's obviously still early when it comes to growth and innovation, but I've been incredibly impressed by our teams and how they've raced to that challenge, and we have a number of great projects going forward here developing new applications that will help in the long term. But when I look at the Fibers challenges that we have, and include it, I'm still confident we can do 8% to 12% earnings per share growth next year when I consider the Company-wide cost actions we're going to take, as well as doing everything we can to reduce cost in Fibers directly. And the growth that I expect in the other three segments relative to this year, as well as our ability to deploy our free cash flow.

顯然，成長和創新還為時過早，但我們的團隊以及他們應對挑戰的方式給我留下了深刻的印象。我們目前正推動一系列優秀的項目，開發新的應用，這些應用將對長期發展大有裨益。但當我審視我們面臨的纖維業務挑戰，並將其納入其中時，我仍然有信心，考慮到我們將採取的全公司範圍的成本控制措施，以及我們將竭盡所能直接降低纖維業務的成本，我們明年的每股收益能夠增長8%至12%。此外，我預計其他三個業務部門今年的業績將會成長，我們運用自由現金流的能力也會有所提升。

Very helpful, Mark. Just one more quick question for you and Curt on the buybacks. What's the trigger to accelerate the buybacks in the back half of the year, heading into 2017?

非常有幫助，馬克。關於股票回購，我還有一個簡單的問題想問您和 Curt。在進入 2017 年之際，下半年加速股票回購的觸發因素為何？

Well if you look at the timing of the buybacks, also we have good visibility to our free cash flow. We know our free cash flow will be a little stronger second half of the year than the first half, and so we also then will know we're on track to be able to complete the deleveraging, the additional total $500 million this year. And so we are accelerating our share repurchases, and that acceleration is occurring as we speak.

如果你看一下回購的時機，你會發現我們對自由現金流的預期也很好。我們知道下半年的自由現金流會比上半年略強，因此我們也知道我們有望完成去槓桿，今年額外增加5億美元。因此，我們正在加快股票回購的步伐，而這種加速正在發生。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We will take our next question from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 提出的下一個問題。

In Chemical Intermediates, you referenced a few products that you said comment oversupply and exacerbating the pricing issue with the energy costs. I'm just curious, when you look at the supply and demand balances, as we get into 2017 and into 2018, is there incremental capacity coming in those products, or are we going to see the worst of that S&D balance this year and as demand grows over the next couple of years things should tighten up a bit, how is that going to play out?

在化學中間體方面，您提到了一些產品，您指出這些產品供應過剩，並加劇了能源成本帶來的定價問題。我很好奇，從供需平衡來看，隨著2017年和2018年的到來，這些產品的產能是否會增加？或者說，今年供需平衡會達到最低點，而隨著未來幾年需求的成長，供需平衡應該會有所收緊，這種情況會如何發展？

Great question. From what we see right now, we think the price pressure is upon us based on those capacities. I don't think we see any increase in those pressures in any significant way. There is incremental capacity being brought on always in these products, but unfortunately, the prices are now down to what I think is cash cost for the different relevant Asian players that we face so we've reached the bottom as long as oil stays in the $40 range, obviously if oil drops to into the $20s you're going to see additional pressure.

問得好。就目前情況來看，我們認為基於這些產能，我們面臨價格壓力。我認為這些壓力不會有任何顯著增加。這些產品的產能一直在增加，但不幸的是，我認為價格現在已經跌到了我們面對的不同亞洲相關企業的現金成本水準。所以，只要油價維持在40美元左右，我們就已經觸底了。顯然，如果油價跌至20美元左右，我們將面臨額外的壓力。

And if oil goes up, we'll get benefits as well.

如果油價上漲，我們也會受益。

And if oil goes up, as many expect, that would be a tail wind for us next year.

如果油價像許多人預期的那樣上漲，那麼明年對我們來說將是一個利好。

Okay just in general, in terms of where your pricing is now relative to the raws, something you brought up at Q4 and obviously been playing out through the year, do you think the pricing conversations that you've had with customers, in terms of where spreads have gone, do you think things are relatively balanced now as we head into the second half?

好的，總的來說，就您現在相對於原材料的定價而言，這是您在第四季度提出的問題，顯然這個問題已經貫穿全年，您認為您與客戶進行的定價對話，就價差而言，您認為隨著我們進入下半年，情況現在相對平衡了嗎？

I think so. From what we can see, pricing is stabilized and that's our view right now in the back half of the year. The big question is going to be how do all of the moving parts on olefins change. They were bouncing around a lot, even in July. You've seen propane costs be anywhere from $0.52 to $0.43 depending on the day, so there's a lot of volatility there. But right now, as Frank asked earlier, we're assuming conditions stay pretty challenging like they were in the second quarter and continue that way for the rest of the year.

我認為是的。就我們目前的情況來看，價格已經穩定，這也是我們目前對下半年的看法。最大的問題是烯烴價格的波動性如何。即使在7月份，價格也波動很大。丙烷價格在不同日期之間波動，從0.52美元到0.43美元不等，波動性很大。但目前，正如弗蘭克之前提到的，我們預計市場環境將像第二季一樣充滿挑戰，並在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

If it gets better we'll do better, but it's really hard to predict right now.

如果情況好轉，我們會做得更好，但現在真的很難預測。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov from Nomura.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫 (Aleksey Yefremov)。

In your Advanced Materials, you averaged about 5.5% volume growth in the first half. Is this about the level that we can expect in the second half, and also, what is organic growth going forward in this segment?

貴公司先進材料業務上半年的銷售量平均成長約5.5%。下半年的銷售成長水準是否與此相符？此外，該業務未來的有機成長情況如何？

Advanced Materials was just a phenomenal success story for us last year and this year, and what I love about it is what you just highlighted. It's a volume and mix driven story, it's not some temporary expansion on price relative to raws. So we feel great about how we're building on last year's tremendous growth this year. We do expect volume growth to continue in a similar level in the second half of this year, and we would expect unit volume growth to continue into next year.

先進材料業務去年和今年對我們來說都是一個非凡的成功故事，我很喜歡您剛才強調的一點。這是一個由產量和產品組合驅動的故事，而不是價格相對於原材料的暫時上漲。因此，我們對今年在去年巨大成長的基礎上繼續發展感到非常高興。我們預計今年下半年產量成長將保持類似的水平，我們預計單位產量成長也將持續到明年。

But it's really important to highlight, it's not about the absolute volume growth, it's all about the mix. So while we are having double digit growth in really high margin great innovative products like acoustic inner layers, heads up display, Tritan, our whole performance films business, our core copolyesters are growing slower than the average, that have lower margins. And so you really are getting a great mix improvement every quarter on top of just good overall solid volume growth.

但要強調的是，重要的不是絕對銷售量的成長，而是產品組合的最佳化。因此，雖然我們在利潤率極高的創新產品（例如隔音內層、抬頭顯示器、Tritan以及我們整個高性能薄膜業務）上實現了兩位數增長，但我們的核心共聚酯產品的增長速度低於平均水平，利潤率也較低。因此，除了整體銷售穩健成長之外，我們每季都能看到產品組合的顯著改善。

And if I could add, the margins you're seeing from the businesses are the margins you would expect, given the investments we made at this business.

補充一下，考慮到我們在該業務上所做的投資，您從這些業務中看到的利潤率正是您所預期的利潤率。

Thank you, and maybe back to Fibers. How far down this road of price cuts is the industry for committing 2017 contracts? Is there still time, do you think, for the industry to pull up and be more rational? I guess in other words, has there been significant volume committed at lower prices for 2017?

謝謝，也許回到纖維產業。業界在降價方面還能走多遠，才能簽訂2017年的合約？您認為業界是否還有時間調整並變得更理性？換句話說，2017年是否有大量訂單以較低的價格簽訂？

I'd say where we are, the customers were quite smart in sensing that the industry had excess capacity. It has been a great industry for 10 years of consistent earnings growth for us, and incremental improvements in margins. Over the last five years we've been increasing price, and with the excess capacity, I think customers are smart and they sense an opportunity, and they started contract discussions early to see what kind of price improvements they could get. And some people responded, and we're defending

我想說，就我們目前的情況來看，客戶非常明智，他們意識到這個行業產能過剩。十年來，這個產業一直表現良好，我們獲利持續成長，利潤率也逐漸提高。過去五年，我們一直在提高價格，而面對產能過剩，我認為客戶很聰明，他們察覺到了機會，所以很早就開始了合約談判，看看能獲得什麼樣的價格優惠。有些人做出了回應，而我們正在捍衛

And so I think that horse has left the barn as far as 2017 goes. We're going to see prices come down at our large customers. But I do think that positive side of this story is they also put a high value on stability and security of supply and are looking for long-term commitments in contracts with suppliers that are committed to being in the industry for the long term. And we stand out as the most committed, given our integration and scale.

所以我認為，就2017年而言，這匹馬已經離開了馬厩。我們會看到大客戶的價格下降。但我確實認為，積極的一面是，他們也高度重視供應的穩定性和安全性，並希望與致力於長期在該行業發展的供應商簽訂長期合約。而鑑於我們的整合和規模，我們是其中最有承諾的。

So that I think will work well for us, as we try to maintain our market share position. And so these long term contracts, if this is the way it continues to play out, will also provide needed stability for our customers on price and supply. And of course, it also helps us provide stability to us too.

所以我認為這對我們很有利，因為我們努力保持市場份額。如果這些長期合約繼續有效，也能為我們的客戶提供所需的價格和供應穩定性。當然，這也有助於我們自身保持穩定。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Jim Sheehan from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Jim Sheehan。

In the tow business, do you see any opportunities for strategic combinations or joint ventures, or would antitrust issues preclude anything like that as being a possibility?

在拖車業務中，您是否看到了任何策略性合併或合資的機會，或者反壟斷問題是否會排除此類可能性？

I think we've looked at it for ourself of course, and given we're the largest merchant tow supplier in the industry, it's unlikely we could do anything. I think in a flat to declining industry, you can make a case for consolidation and get it approved, when a couple other competitors want to come together. In theory, any combination of the other three competitors is possible, based on our look at it. But it would obviously be a comprehensive process with the anti-trust agencies to make sure there will be no harm to customers, but I think it's possible. Whether or not it happens is obviously out of our control, and we'll have to see what our competitors choose to do.

當然，我想我們已經親自考慮過了，考慮到我們是業內最大的商用拖車供應商，我們不太可能採取任何行動。我認為，在一個平穩甚至衰退的行業中，當其他幾家競爭對手想要合併時，你可以提出合併的理由並獲得批准。理論上，根據我們的觀察，其他三家競爭對手的任何合併都是可能的。但這顯然需要與反壟斷機構進行全面的溝通，以確保不會損害客戶利益，但我認為這是可能的。最終是否合併顯然超出了我們的控制範圍，我們必須觀察競爭對手的選擇。

Great and could you comment on how your propane hedges roll off next year, and how you see propane supply/demand, and just generally how you see propane factoring into your earnings for 2017?

太好了，您能否評論一下明年您的丙烷對沖情況如何，您如何看待丙烷的供需情況，以及您如何看待丙烷對您 2017 年收益的影響？

So I'll answer the hedge first. On the hedge nothing has dramatically changed, and our outlook of the impact of the hedges net of the currency. We stood that impact around $0.60 a share, and we think about half of that will still roll off next year, but we'll have to see how propane moves around a little bit. But generally speaking, we still expect that benefit next year.

所以我先來回答對沖的問題。避險方面，沒有什麼顯著變化，我們對沖影響的預期是扣除匯率因素後。我們認為對沖的影響約為每股0.60美元，我們認為明年仍有一半的利好，但我們需要觀察丙烷的走勢。但總體而言，我們仍然預計明年會有利。

I'd note that hedge is a net comment, so that's both propane headwind being rolled off, as well as the currency hedge benefits coming on. On the outlook for propane and propylene, because what really matters is the cracking spread relative to propylene and ethylene. Our view is the market is already reconnecting propane to global values with all of the export capacity that's readily available in the US, so I think that you're seeing that now, with how propane prices improve through second quarter and even as oil has come off recently, you've seen propane prices follow it down. So just depends on your view in oil, and you can get a view of what you think propane is going to do next year.

我想指出的是，對沖是一種淨值評論，這意味著丙烷逆風正在消退，貨幣對沖的利好也正在顯現。關於丙烷和丙烯的前景，真正重要的是相對於丙烯和乙烯的裂解價差。我們認為，市場已經利用美國現有的所有出口能力，將丙烷重新與全球價值聯繫起來，所以我認為你現在就可以看到這一點，丙烷價格在第二季度有所回升，即使最近油價有所下降，丙烷價格也隨之下降。所以，這取決於你對油價的看法，你就能對丙烷明年的走勢有所了解。

The bigger question is what I already discussed, which is what our ethylene and propylene prices can do to, especially ethylene, as they've been stranded and disconnected. It's really significant when you think about ethylene in Asia in the mid $0.40 range and we're in the mid to high $0.20 range in ethylene, times 700 million pounds of ethylene that we sell. It's just that product line, you do the math or whatever you think that delta should be, and you can get to some very large earnings numbers that have been a headwind for us relative to what we expected at the beginning of the year.

更大的問題就是我已經討論過的，那就是我們的乙烯和丙烯價格會對我們造成什麼影響，尤其是乙烯，因為它們的產能已經停滯不前。想想看，亞洲乙烯的價格在0.40美元左右，而我們的乙烯價格在0.20美元左右，乘以我們銷售的7億磅乙烯，這真的很重要。單單是這條產品線，你算一下，或者隨便你認為增量應該是多少，你就能得到一些非常大的盈利數字，相對於我們年初的預期，這對我們來說是一個阻力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Mike Sison from KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Mark, when you think about your portfolio you've done a nice job moving it in the right direction, but you still have about a third of it struggling quite a bit here. Does it make sense to look at more acquisitions? And what percent of your portfolio do you need to be able to offset these headwinds over time? Is it more like a 80% or 90% in portfolio specialty, or what do you think you need to do to get more stable?

馬克，想想你的投資組合，你做得很好，讓它朝著正確的方向發展，但仍然有大約三分之一的投資組合陷入困境。考慮進行更多收購是否合理？你需要投資組合中多少比例的資金才能隨著時間的推移抵消這些不利因素？是80%還是90%的資金用於專業投資，還是你認為你需要做些什麼才能更穩定？

Thanks, Mike. Certainly, we're committed to driving our portfolio toward specialty as hard as we possibly can, and you do that through multiple things. We've done some excellent acquisitions, large ones like Solutia and Taminco, and some bolt-ons as well. And we paid reasonable prices for them, and are going to get attractive ROICs relative to weighted average cost of capital.

謝謝，麥克。當然，我們致力於盡可能地推動我們的投資組合朝專業化方向發展，這可以透過多種方式實現。我們已經完成了一些非常成功的收購，包括像 Solutia 和 Taminco 這樣的大型收購，以及一些附加收購。我們為這些收購支付了合理的價格，並且相對於加權平均資本成本，我們將獲得相當吸引人的投入資本回報率 (ROIC)。

And frankly, those acquisitions were intentional. We always knew we had challenges in Fibers and olefins at some point in the future, and we intentionally chose not to build crackers and PDH units because we were convinced five years ago that industry would overbuild. And we were intentionally diversifying our portfolio with the strength of the cash that we had at the time in olefins and Fibers into more attractive long term markets where we can innovate.

坦白說，這些收購都是有意為之。我們一直都知道，未來某個時候，我們在纖維和烯烴領域會面臨挑戰，所以我們有意選擇不建造裂解裝置和丙烷脫氫裝置，因為我們五年前就確信產業會出現過度建設。我們有意利用當時在烯烴和纖維領域持有的雄厚現金，將投資組合多元化，投入更具吸引力的長期市場，在那裡我們可以進行創新。

So I think that part of the strategy is great and on track. And of course we've always been a disciplined seller of underperforming businesses. We've sold off $3.5 billion of revenue from PET to polyolefins, et cetera, in the past, and we're trying to get rid of it more now in this current process on the bulk ethylene and some other products. So we're doing everything we are controlling.

所以我認為這部分戰略很棒，而且進展順利。當然，我們一直以來都嚴格出售表現不佳的業務。過去，我們已經出售了從PET到聚烯烴等業務領域價值35億美元的資產，現在我們正試圖在目前的大宗乙烯和其他一些產品的生產過程中進一步出售這些資產。所以，我們正在盡一切努力控制好自己的行為。

Unfortunately, I've said this before we are out of the M&A market as a tool to further diversify our portfolio at this moment in time. I think the valuations are way too high in the market that are being paid right now, 15 times anything, it seems. It's hard to get an ROIC at an acceptable level and we still, we're old-fashioned that way. We still believe in an unlevered return on capital, even if debt is close to free. And so we don't think that's value-creating for our shareholders, and we aren't going to do that.

很遺憾，我之前就說過，我們目前不會再利用併購市場來進一步分散投資組合。我認為目前市場上的估值過高，本益比似乎高達15倍。很難將投資報酬率（ROIC）控制在可接受的水平，而且我們在這方面仍然比較保守。即使債務幾乎為零，我們仍然相信無槓桿的資本報酬率。因此，我們認為這不會為股東創造價值，我們也不會這麼做。

What we are going to do is focus on innovation and driving innovative growth across our portfolio. We've been doing it for a long time as heritage Eastman and we're showing you excellent proof points about how we're doing it in the acquisitions from inner layers to Crystex to performance films, and we're starting to accelerate some great opportunities in Taminco, now that we've got it under the hood there. So we're going to do that, we're going to take out cost as much as we possibly can, but not cut our innovation programs.

我們要做的是專注於創新，並推動我們整個產品組合的創新成長。作為伊士曼的傳承，我們長期以來一直致力於創新，並透過從內層到Crystex再到高性能薄膜的收購，向大家展示了我們是如何做到這一點的。現在，我們已經在Taminco公司取得了一些重大進展，並開始加速一些重要的投資機會。因此，我們將盡可能降低成本，但不會削減我們的創新項目。

That's a core choice for us. And as Curt mentioned, we've got one of the best free cash flows in the industry, and we'll be repurchasing shares as aggressively as we can, but also maintaining our credit rating.

這是我們的核心選擇。正如Curt所提到的，我們擁有業內最佳的自由現金流之一，我們將盡可能積極地回購股票，同時保持我們的信用評級。

Great, and Advanced Material has been a bright spot this year. Operating income is up 14% in the first half, you mentioned that, should grow double digits in 2016. Will you have double digit growth in the second half of 2016, and if so, what do you think will drive that?

太好了，先進材料今年表現亮眼。您提到上半年營業利潤成長了14%，2016年應該會達到兩位數成長。 2016年下半年你們會達到兩位數成長嗎？如果會，您認為推動這一成長的因素是什麼？

I think we'll continue that rate of growth through the rest of the year, and it's volume and mix. It's just the continuation of the story we have been delivering for a long time.

我認為今年剩餘時間我們的成長速度、銷售量和產品組合都會繼續維持下去。這只是我們長期以來一直在講述的故事的延續。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can remind me how much is your pension funding this year, and I would imagine your pension liabilities will grow given the interest rate environment that we're in. And so do you have any sort of guesstimates for how your pension funding might change next year, or in future years?

能否提醒我您今年的退休金有多少？考慮到我們所處的利率環境，我可以想像您的退休金負債將會成長。那麼您對明年或未來幾年您的退休金可能發生的變化有什麼估計嗎？

So Jeff, I'll answer those in reverse order, if you don't mind. First of all, we do anticipate lower discount rate, and so if you just give $0.01 for every 25 BPs that the discount rate lowers in 2016, that's roughly a $50 million increase in our liability for our pensions. If you expand that globally, about $90 million.

傑夫，如果你不介意的話，我會反過來回答這些問題。首先，我們確實預期貼現率會下降，所以如果2016年折現率每降低25個基點，就給0.01美元，那麼我們的退休金負債大約會增加5,000萬美元。如果擴展到全球，大約會增加9000萬美元。

And so if you take current discount rates, it's probably about a 75 to 80 BPs decline, so you're looking at maybe a couple hundred million increase in your pension liability. But it's only July, so we'll see what the next five months hold. As it relates to pension funding, we contributed about $100 million last year. I suspect it will be between $50 million to $75 million this year.

因此，如果以目前的折現率計算，大概會下降75到80個基點，也就是說，你的退休金負債可能會增加幾億美元。但現在才7月，所以我們還要看看接下來五個月的狀況。就退休金資金而言，我們去年貢獻了約1億美元。我估計今年的貢獻會在5000萬到7500萬美元之間。

Great, and then for my follow-up, in the additives and functional area, can you remind me which product lines are growing in volume, and which ones are shrinking?

太好了，那麼接下來，在添加劑和功能領域，您能提醒我哪些產品線的產量正在成長，哪些產品線的產量正在萎縮嗎？

Sure, Jeff. So overall this segment net had a 2% volume growth for the second quarter, and what we're seeing is very strong growth in tire additives especially Crystex, great recovery there, and we're doing really well with our customers across the globe there. And then the anti-dumping tariffs on tires is really helping us out, as we have a stronger position outside of China, and we're benefiting from that shift to the US.

當然，傑夫。所以，總體而言，該部門第二季的淨銷量成長了2%。我們看到輪胎添加劑業務成長強勁，尤其是Crystex，復甦勢頭強勁，我們與全球客戶的關係也非常好。此外，輪胎反傾銷關稅對我們幫助很大，因為我們在中國以外的市場地位更加穩固，而這種向美國市場的轉移也讓我們受益匪淺。

Coatings are growing with the market, consistent with our customers, and as you think about Adhesives, it's also has modest growth. All that success is being offset to some degree by decline in energy markets, which has been double digit. We have some products that go down hole into that space. And industrial construction, which is where our fluids go. And so we're obviously seeing a pretty drop in the construction cycle in China, when it comes to chemical plants, and demand is off there.

塗料業務隨著市場發展而成長，與我們的客戶保持一致。黏合劑業務也呈現溫和成長。所有這些成功在一定程度上被能源市場的下滑所抵消，能源市場的下滑幅度達到了兩位數。我們的一些產品也進入了能源領域。此外，我們的流體產品也應用於工業建築領域。因此，我們顯然看到中國化工廠的建設週期大幅下降，需求也隨之下降。

Okay great, thank you so much.

好的，太好了，非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

Two questions. First, just want to connect two of the responses earlier. The comment around 8% to 10% growth next year, do you need the areas in the intermediates business to stabilize for that to happen, or do you see enough levers that you can get to 8% even if the current pressures spill over into next year, and the bottoming out process is pushed out?

兩個問題。首先，我想把之前的兩個回答連結起來。關於明年成長8%到10%的評論，您是否需要中間體業務領域穩定下來才能實現這一目標？或者，即使當前的壓力延續到明年，觸底反彈的過程被推遲，您是否認為有足夠的槓桿來達到8%的成長目標？

We're assuming that the world stays similar to the way it is today. So oil stays in the $40s, economy continues to grow slowly, and there's a modest improvement in oil prices next year relative to this year, but not anything material. And with those conditions, we believe Chemical Intermediates can grow earnings over this year.

我們假設世界經濟保持與目前類似的狀態。油價維持在40美元左右，經濟持續緩慢成長，明年油價相對於今年會略有回升，但不會有任何實質的改善。基於這些條件，我們相信化學中間體業務今年的利潤有望成長。

You have to remember that you've got a net in a $0.30 a share tail wind with the hedge, when you back out currency that's $0.40 of propane hedges coming off, and $0.10 headwind in currency, net 30. And a lot of that tail wind flows into Chemical Intermediates, 80% roughly. So you've got that tail wind, and you've got what we think is a bottoming out situation right you now in pricing and behavior by our competitors. And so we're not assuming some dramatic recovery next year.

你必須記住，在每股0.30美元的對沖順風中，你獲得了淨收益。當你撤回貨幣時，相當於每股0.40美元的丙烷對沖損失，加上0.10美元的逆風，淨收益為30美元。這部分順風大部分流入了化學中間體領域，約佔80%。所以，你獲得了順風，而且我們認為，從價格和競爭對手的行為來看，目前市場正處於觸底階段。因此，我們並不認為明年會大幅復甦。

And if I could add, don't forget we've also announced the additional cost actions, because given the challenges of Fibers potentially being down 10% to 20% next year, we didn't want to sit idle. And so taking an additional cost actions, plus we expect good strong free cash flow next year and the ability to deploy that, and to balance the way across debt and share repurchases.

補充一下，別忘了我們也宣布了額外的成本控制措施，因為考慮到明年光纖業務可能下降10%到20%的挑戰，我們不想袖手旁觀。因此，除了採取額外的成本控制措施外，我們預計明年自由現金流將保持強勁，並有能力進行部署，從而平衡債務和股票回購。

And secondly, if and when energy markets recover, what do you see is the lag effect for your business to recover, and is your operating leverage in any way diminished by the cost out actions you've taken?

其次，如果能源市場復甦，您認為您的業務復甦的滯後效應是什麼？您採取的成本削減措施是否會削弱您的營運槓桿？

The cost actions certainly don't diminish anything. We are very committed to innovation. The only way we actually deliver long term growth, long term margins for our shareholders is innovate. That's true of any Company in this industry. If you don't innovate, your products get commoditized, that's just a fact of life.

成本措施當然不會減少任何影響。我們非常致力於創新。我們真正為股東實現長期成長和長期利潤的唯一方法就是創新。對於這個行業的任何公司來說，這都是如此。如果你不創新，你的產品就會被商品化，這是不爭的事實。

So our cost reductions are not -- we have a very bright line where we aren't going to cross that, but we are going to push our cost reductions to the limit. And I'd also note, we already are very low cost and we already stretched our functional scale capability tremendously with the large number of acquisitions we've done. So we feel good about where we are, but you can always push for more, and that's what we are going to do. When it comes to the overall market dynamics as we go into next year, I think we're set up well to grow our businesses through volume and mix in the specialties, and hold our margins, and I think Chemicals Intermediates, the situation we hope is stabilizing, as long as oil doesn't take another big step down.

因此，我們的成本削減並非——我們設定了一條非常明確的底線，不會逾越，但我們會將成本削減推向極限。我還想指出，我們的成本已經非常低，而且透過大量收購，我們的功能規模能力也得到了極大的提升。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意，但你永遠可以追求更高目標，而這正是我們要做的。談到明年的整體市場動態，我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以透過產量和特殊產品組合來發展業務，並保持利潤率。我認為，只要油價不再大幅下跌，我們希望化學中間體業務的情況能穩定下來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from PJ Juvekar Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 PJ Juvekar。

Mark, you talked about Q2 Chem being weak. I have a question about 3Q. Propylene prices are generally stable in second quarter, around $0.30. Are the propylene derivatives still falling, or have you seen some stabilization, and can you just talk generally about the C3 chain?

馬克，您提到第二季化學產品價格疲軟。我有一個關於第三季的問題。丙烯價格在第二季整體穩定，約0.30美元。丙烯衍生物價格還在下跌嗎？還是已經有所穩定？能否大致談談C3鏈的情況？

Yes, I think the C3 chain, I think we've talked about it to some degree already, which is, propylene prices seem to have stabilized right now, but they aren't improving as oil improved, as much as propane did. So you've seen some compression in that spread, and if you look at it year-over-year, obviously there's tremendous compression in propylene to propane spread versus a year ago in the second quarter, as well as how we view the next couple of quarters.

是的，我認為我們已經在一定程度上討論過C3鏈了，也就是說，丙烯價格目前似乎已經穩定下來，但並沒有像丙烷那樣隨著石油價格上漲而上漲。所以，你可以看到價差有所收窄。如果與去年同期相比，丙烯和丙烷的價差在第二季與去年同期相比明顯收窄，我們對未來幾季的展望也是如此。

But I think that over time, it will go back to more normal relationship, propylene is a little bit artificially depressed by all the excess supply of PDH out there, but at the end of the day, propylene price is going to get set out of Asia, particularly probably China, and it's going to either be PDH methanol or olefins or naphtha, all are connected to oil. So once we get enough derivative capacity out there to turn all this propylene into something, I think you start getting back to more normal relationships of propylene to propane, with wherever oil turns out to be.

但我認為，隨著時間的推移，丙烯價格會回歸到更正常的狀態。丙烷脫氫（PDH）供應過剩會在一定程度上人為地抑制丙烯價格，但最終丙烯價格的上漲將由亞洲（尤其是中國）決定，而最終的上漲動力要么來自丙烷脫氫，要么來自甲醇、烯烴或石腦油，所有這些都與石油相關。因此，一旦我們擁有足夠的衍生產品產能，能夠將所有這些丙烯轉化為某種產品，我認為丙烯與丙烷的價格關係就會開始回歸更正常的狀態，無論石油產地在哪裡。

You talked about your portfolio transformation, a lot of investors are saying the portfolio is a bit too complicated for them to understand. I know you're divesting ethylene, but the longer this transformation takes, the more people getting impacted in the meantime, can you give us a sense of timing on what you're thinking about this transformation, and when do you think you can say that you've done it?

您談到了投資組合轉型，許多投資人表示，這個投資組合對他們來說太複雜了，很難理解。我知道您正在剝離乙烯業務，但轉型時間越長，受影響的人就越多。能否透露一下您對此次轉型的具體時間安排？您認為什麼時候可以宣布轉型完成？

Sure so roughly this year, two-thirds of earnings will come from AM and AFP, which is a dramatic change, if you look at who we are today versus five years ago. So I think we've made huge progress on altering our portfolio, and it was intentional, as I said. Obviously, we didn't expect the accelerated pressure in Fibers and Chemical Intermediates we are experiencing at the moment, so I thought I had a little bit more time to grow the specialties relative to those two segments.

好的，所以大致來說，今年三分之二的收益將來自AM和AFP，如果你看看我們現在和五年前的情況，這是一個巨大的變化。所以我認為我們在調整產品組合方面取得了巨大的進展，而且正如我所說，這是有意為之。顯然，我們沒有預料到目前纖維和化學中間體業務面臨的加速壓力，所以我認為我還有更多時間來發展這兩個業務板塊的特殊產品。

But I do think we're doing everything we can, and we're cutting costs aggressively to offset the margin compression we're facing in Fibers and CI, as much as we can, and I think we'll recover to some degree at some point, and that will give us a big tailwind relative to these businesses. So I think this is a really tough year for us obviously.

但我確實認為我們正在竭盡所能，我們正在積極削減成本，以盡可能抵消我們在光纖和CI業務面臨的利潤率壓縮。我認為我們最終會在某種程度上復甦，這將為我們帶來相對於這些業務的巨大順風。所以我認為這對我們來說顯然是艱難的一年。

I'm not happy about it. We're doing everything we can on every front to make it as good as possible. But right now we've got organically grow, we have to divest what we can, and return cash to shareholders. And I think that is going to be a compelling story of you look at how we can perform in that context relative to this year going forward, and relative to many of our peers. So we're on the right track. We just got to keep driving it.

我對此並不滿意。我們正在各方面竭盡所能，力求做到最好。但目前，我們必須實現有機成長，必須剝離所有能剝離的業務，並向股東返還現金。我認為，這將是一個引人入勝的故事，看看我們今年以及未來幾年的表現，以及與許多同行相比如何。所以我們走在正確的道路上。我們只需要繼續前進。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Three questions on tow, if I could. First is, you talk about being low cost, which I think everybody would grant you. But bigger question is how steep do you think the cost curve is, so you versus say the plant that sits at the 90th percentile of the cost curve, how big is that delta? The second question would be how much has the low methanol prices changed the cost dynamic for your competitors and therefore the dynamics in tow? And the last one is selling half of your JV back to Solvay, on the surface of it, giving a smaller competitor more capacity doesn't seem logical, so could you walk through the logic of doing that deal?

如果可以的話，我想問三個關於拖曳的問題。首先，您提到了低成本，我想大家都會同意。但更大的問題是，您認為成本曲線有多陡峭？也就是說，與成本曲線第90個百分位的工廠相比，這個差異有多大？第二個問題是，低甲醇價格在多大程度上改變了您競爭對手的成本動態，從而影響了拖曳的成本動態？最後一個問題是，將您合資公司的一半股份賣回給索爾維，表面上看，這似乎不符合邏輯，給規模較小的競爭對手提供更多產能，所以您能解釋一下這筆交易的邏輯嗎？

So I'll take the first two, Curt will take the last one. In regards to the shape of the curve, we are definitely the lowest cost player, and to answer your question, the curve has flattened out a bit, because while we're based on coal, our competitors are based on natural gas and methanol, that drives our cost structure. And certainly those prices have come down. So in this year, it's feeling a little bit flattened out relative to the past.

所以我選前兩個，Curt 選最後一個。就曲線形狀而言，我們絕對是成本最低的供應商。回答你的問題，曲線已經趨於平緩，因為我們以煤炭為基礎，而我們的競爭對手以天然氣和甲醇為基礎，這決定了我們的成本結構。當然，這些價格已經下降了。所以今年，相對於過去，曲線感覺稍微平緩了一些。

As you look forward, coal is probably going to stay pretty low in the US, and natural gas prices are already moving up, and methanol prices will certainly move up with oil as well. So the curve is actually going to steepen relative to us from this year going forward. It is our view of how that cost curve has changed, and is going to go back to being steeper as we move forward. I'm not going to get into the details of the steepness of the curve, but what I can tell you is there's plenty of high-cost assets out there that are discrete standalone assets, and if someone wanted to improve their earnings and their cost position to serve their customers, that's a choice they have to work through.

展望未來，美國的煤炭價格可能會維持在相當低的水平，而天然氣價格已在上漲，甲醇價格也肯定會隨著石油價格上漲而上漲。因此，從今年開始，這條曲線相對於我們而言實際上會變得更加陡峭。我們認為這條成本曲線已經發生了變化，隨著時間的推移，它將會重新變得更加陡峭。我不會詳細討論曲線的陡峭程度，但我可以告訴你的是，市場上有很多高成本資產，它們都是獨立的、獨立的資產。如果有人想提高獲利能力和成本控制能力來服務客戶，那麼他們就必須做出選擇。

On the flake joint venture, as you know, we enjoyed the benefits of that flake joint venture for a number of years. A good partner, a good asset. But given our debottlenecking of our own low-cost flake assets and the shutdown of Workington, we are now balanced, so we didn't need that capacity off that joint venture, so really we agreed to sell our share to that joint venture. I think it's a good outcome for both parties, because we would be able to match our flake to what our tow capacities around the world. It gives them a low cost flake asset. I assume that gives us some options to think about, but you need to ask them about that.

關於片狀礦合資企業，如您所知，我們多年來一直受益於該合資企業。他們是個好的合作夥伴，也是一筆寶貴的資產。但考慮到我們自身低成本片狀礦資產的瓶頸已經消除，以及沃金頓礦的關閉，我們現在的運營已經平衡，因此我們不需要從該合資企業中分得一杯羹，所以我們實際上同意將我們的股份出售給該合資企業。我認為這對雙方來說都是一個好結果，因為我們能夠將我們的片狀礦產量與我們在全球的拖運能力相匹配。這為他們提供了一筆低成本的片狀礦資產。我認為這給了我們一些可以考慮的選擇，但你需要問他們。

Great, thank you guys.

太好了，謝謝大家。

Ron, let's make the next question the last one please?

羅恩，我們可以把下一個問題當作最後一個問題嗎？

Perfect we'll take our last question from Mr. Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

很好，我們來回答高盛的 Bob Koort 先生提出的最後一個問題。

In the Chemical Intermediates, pretty jarring result to nearly make no money. I'm just curious if you look across that portfolio, it seems like there's several businesses that should be reasonably good, so are there some reasonable loss makers in there at the moment?

在化學中間體業務方面，幾乎沒有獲利，結果相當令人震驚。我只是好奇，如果你看一下這個投資組合，似乎有幾項業務應該相當不錯，那麼目前其中有一些虧損業務嗎？

So Bob, I think we've called out ethylene enough, and obviously that one's pretty challenged in the current economic situation. It's also important to keep in mind that while we're certainly not happy about the hedge of low oil, that the margins in this business will probably be double, if you extract the hedge out of this segment. So it's certainly not good, and we aren't happy about it, but if you look at operating earnings before financing activity, it's quite a bit better.

所以鮑勃，我認為我們已經對乙烯業務的關注已經夠多了，而且在當前的經濟狀況下，乙烯業務顯然面臨相當大的挑戰。同樣重要的是要記住，雖然我們對低油價的對沖措施肯定不滿意，但如果把對沖措施從這個業務中剔除，該業務的利潤率可能會翻倍。所以這當然不是好事，我們對此也不滿意，但如果你看看融資活動前的營業利潤，情況會好得多。

And we'll, by that reason, get better as the hedge rolls off over the next two years. But is certainly, we're under pressure in bulk ethylene, that's the only one that is in the challenged situation. The others are just much lower margins than what we would like it to be, and as I said, plasticizers as an example the place that's under a lot of pressure, hence our anti-dumping case.

因此，隨著未來兩年對沖的減少，我們的狀況將會好轉。但可以肯定的是，大宗乙烯業務面臨壓力，這是唯一面臨挑戰的業務。其他業務的利潤率遠低於我們的預期，正如我所說，增塑劑業務就面臨巨大壓力，因此我們發起了反傾銷訴訟。

Bob, just to remind you of the second quarter results did include roughly $35 million of maintenance costs so that's a little unusual for the second quarter trend, that's why you'll see sequential improvement in the Chemical Intermediates for the rest of the year.

鮑勃，只是想提醒你，第二季度的業績確實包括大約 3500 萬美元的維護成本，這對於第二季度的趨勢來說有點不尋常，這就是為什麼你會看到今年剩餘時間內化學中間體的連續改善。

And I know you guys have a slightly different feedstock slate than say your average US cracker, which can cause some challenges. Is there anything unique about your contract structure either in ethylene or across your portfolio that would be different than a typical Company?

我知道你們的原料結構與美國普通裂解廠略有不同，這可能會帶來一些挑戰。你們的乙烯合約結構或整個產品組合的合約結構有什麼獨特之處，與一般公司有什麼不同嗎？

No, not really. Again we have the unique, we're just a buyer of propane in the marketplace, same with ethylene. We have a certain slate of products mix in the crackers. There's some flexibility, but you have some limitations there. Longer term, if there's a party interested our crackers, there is a amount of capital you could deploy to make that more ethylene-based, and that's the kind of conversations we're having with the people interested in our excess ethylene position today.

不，其實不然。我們的獨特之處在於，我們只是市場上丙烷的買家，乙烯也是一樣。我們的裂解裝置有特定的產品組合。有一定的彈性，但也有一些限制。從長遠來看，如果有一方對我們的裂解裝置感興趣，我們可以投入一定數量的資金，使其更多地以乙烯為基礎，而這正是我們目前與那些對我們過剩乙烯部位感興趣的人進行的對話。

Got it. Thanks very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

So I'm just going to make one final comment and let Greg wrap up. While we are certainly not happy with our performance in the second quarter, and revising guidance down for this year, I think that we are extremely happy with our strategy, and what we're trying to do.

所以，我最後再說一句，讓格雷格總結一下。雖然我們對第二季的表現肯定不滿意，並且下調了今年的業績預期，但我認為我們對我們的策略以及我們正在努力做的事情感到非常滿意。

For a long time, we've known that we should be growing our specialties, both innovative ways as well as acquisitions. We're doing that, and it's improved the quality of our portfolio and the strength of this Company dramatically from where we were five years ago. And we're going to continue doing that.

長期以來，我們一直深知，我們應該透過創新和收購來拓展我們的專長。我們正在這樣做，這顯著提升了我們投資組合的質量，增強了公司的實力，遠超五年前。我們將繼續這樣做。

We're also going to do everything we can to reduce costs to offset these short-term challenges, being responsible for delivering value for our shareholders both in short and long term at the same time. So you're going to see us drive execution as hard as we can, you're going to see us push results as hard as we can in this very tough environment, and we feel good about our way to fight our way through this and deliver growth next year.

我們也將竭盡全力降低成本，以抵消這些短期挑戰，同時致力於為股東創造短期和長期價值。因此，您將看到我們竭盡全力推動執行，您將看到我們在這個非常艱難的環境中竭盡全力推動業績，我們對我們克服困難、在明年實現增長的方式感到滿意。

Okay thanks everyone for joining us this morning. A web replay will be available later this morning, and have a great day.

好的，感謝大家今天早上的收看。網路重播將於今天早上晚些時候上線，祝大家有美好的一天。

And that will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連線了。