伊士曼化學 (EMN) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company first-quarter 2016 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.Eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Chemical Company investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加伊士曼化學公司 2016 年第一季電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。本次電話會議正在伊士曼網站 www.Eastman.com 上現場直播。現在我們將電話轉給伊士曼化學公司投資者關係部的 Greg Riddle 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Taylor; and good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Chairman and CEO; Curt Espeland, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Louis Reavis, Manager, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，泰勒；大家早安，謝謝你們加入我們。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官馬克·科斯塔 (Mark Costa)、執行副總裁兼首席財務官科特·埃斯佩蘭 (Curt Espeland) 和投資者關係經理路易斯·裡維斯 (Louis Reavis)。

Before we begin, I will cover two items. First, during this presentation, you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the Company's first-quarter 2016 financial results news release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K filed for 2015 and the Form 10-Q to be filed for first quarter 2016.

在我們開始之前，我將介紹兩件事。首先，在本次演示中，您將聽到有關我們的計劃和期望的一些前瞻性陳述。實際事件或結果可能有重大差異。與未來預期相關的某些因素已在或將在公司 2016 年第一季財務業績新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明，包括 2015 年提交的 10-K 表格和將於 2016 年第一季提交的 10-Q 表格。

Second, earnings per share and operating earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non-core costs, charges and gains. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded items, are available in the first-quarter 2016 financial results news release, which can be found on our website, www.Eastman.com, in the investors section. Projections of future earnings also exclude any non-core, unusual or nonrecurring items. I will turn the call over to Mark.

其次，本報告中提到的每股盈餘和營業收益不包括某些非核心成本、費用和收益。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標及其他相關揭露（包括排除項目的描述）的對帳表可在 2016 年第一季財務業績新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 www.Eastman.com 的投資者專區找到。未來收益預測也排除任何非核心、不尋常或非經常性項目。我將把電話轉給馬克。

Good morning, everyone. I will start on slide 3. We had a solid start of the year with the first-quarter results, which were slightly better than our expectation. Overall, our strategy is working. We did a great job of holding on to value through the quarter as we increased our operating margin by 40 basis points to over 18%. We continue to upgrade the quality of our product mix by growing high-margin specialty productlines, a key component of our winning strategy.

大家早安。我將從第三張投影片開始。今年我們有一個良好的開端，第一季的業績略好於我們的預期。總體而言，我們的策略是有效的。我們在本季度出色地保持了價值，因為我們將營業利潤率提高了 40 個基點，達到 18% 以上。我們透過發展高利潤的專業產品線來不斷提升產品組合的質量，這是我們制勝策略的關鍵組成部分。

To see more of our strategy in action, I recently traveled to visit customers in Asia and I'm really excited about all the innovation and customer engagement that's gaining traction across the region from India to China to Japan. In India, we secured our first commercial success on our next-generation polyester coatings platform with the leading manufacturer of SUVs and tractors. As I met with them, I was excited to see their engagement and enthusiasm for our solution and how it could significantly improve their ability to maintain their leadership cost effectively.

為了進一步了解我們的策略實施情況，我最近前往亞洲拜訪客戶，我對從印度到中國再到日本等整個地區日益增長的創新和客戶參與感到非常興奮。在印度，我們與領先的 SUV 和拖拉機製造商合作，在下一代聚酯塗料平台上取得了首次商業成功。當我與他們會面時，我很高興看到他們對我們的解決方案的參與和熱情，以及它如何顯著提高他們以經濟的方式保持領導地位的能力。

With increasing expectations from the emerging middle class in India and new Western competitors, this customer faced a challenge. Upgrade the durability and gloss retention of their monocoat coding or spend significant money to build a more expensive two-coat system. Our revolutionary next-gen polyester coating enabled them to achieve best-in-class performance with a monocoat instead of moving to a much more expensive two-coat solution. We were there last September when the first SUVs rolled off the assembly line a short 15 months after the project started. And now there are more than 30,000 SUVs on the road.

隨著印度新興中產階級和西方新競爭對手的期望值不斷提高，這位客戶面臨挑戰。升級單塗層編碼的耐用性和光澤保持性，或花費大量資金建造更昂貴的雙塗層系統。我們革命性的下一代聚酯塗層使他們能夠透過單塗層實現一流的性能，而無需昂貴的雙塗層解決方案。去年 9 月，我們在現場，當時專案啟動僅 15 個月後，第一輛 SUV 就下線了。現在路上行駛的SUV有3萬多輛。

Key to the success was a tremendous partnership built between this auto OEM, their exceptional coatings formulator and Eastman. We've started with auto coatings and we are making tremendous progress in industrial and packaged coatings as well.

成功的關鍵在於該汽車原始設備製造商、其卓越的塗料配方師和伊士曼之間建立的牢固的合作夥伴關係。我們從汽車塗料起步，在工業和包裝塗料領域也取得了巨大進展。

In China, we recently partnered with a leading local housewares brand to launch a productline that utilizes their Tritan coat polyester, as we are seeing an increased local need for greater product safety and durability. Similar to the success in India, this customer is looking for a way to differentiate themselves from other local competitors. I am very bullish on this market expansion into China for a product that has predominantly been sold to North American and European consumers.

在中國，我們最近與當地一家領先的家居用品品牌合作，推出了採用其 Tritan 塗層聚酯的產品線，因為我們發現當地對更高產品安全性和耐用性的需求日益增加。與在印度的成功類似，該客戶正在尋找一種方法來使自己有別於其他本地競爭對手。我對這款主要銷往北美和歐洲消費者的產品進軍中國市場非常看好。

As part of our success, we are providing training to the Company's 20,000-person sales force that works throughout department stores in China who are pitching our Tritan value proposition for us every day. These are just two of many examples where we are succeeding by helping our customers through innovation.

作為我們成功的一部分，我們正在為公司在中國各百貨公司工作的 20,000 名銷售人員提供培訓，他們每天都在向我們推銷 Tritan 的價值主張。這只是我們透過創新幫助客戶成功的眾多例子中的兩個。

On the cost management front, we are well on track with our corporate cost reduction efforts without sacrificing our long-term growth initiative. Our SG&A and R&D as a percentage of sales remains in the lowest quartile of our peers, which is a function of our scale and integration and the great discipline of our employees. We've also made excellent progress in reducing manufacturing costs. Productivity is in the DNA of Eastman and we continue to succeed.

在成本管理方面，我們在降低企業成本方面進展順利，同時又不犧牲我們的長期成長計畫。我們的銷售、一般及行政費用和研發費用佔銷售額的百分比仍然處於同行中最低的四分之一，這得益於我們的規模和整合以及員工的良好紀律。我們在降低製造成本方面也取得了顯著進展。生產力是伊士曼的 DNA，我們不斷地成功。

Cash flow was consistent with our expectations and we are on track to deliver another strong year of free cash flow, enabling our increasing dividend, deleveraging, repurchasing shares in the back half of the year.

現金流與我們的預期一致，我們有望實現另一個強勁的自由現金流年度，使我們能夠在下半年增加股息、去槓桿、回購股票。

Beyond these great results, we've also been the recipient of numerous awards over the past several months, which highlight many of the qualities our stakeholders have come to expect from Eastman. We received a Glass Door Employees Choice Award honoring the best places to work. What I valued most about this award is it's based solely on the input of employees. We are the only chemical company to be in the top-50 best places to work ever. And this is our third year in a row we've been honored.

除了這些出色的成績之外，過去幾個月我們還獲得了無數獎項，這些獎項彰顯了我們的利害關係人對伊士曼的許多期望。我們榮獲了 Glass Door 員工選擇獎，以表彰最佳工作場所。我最重視這個獎項的一點是它完全基於員工的投入。我們是唯一躋身最佳工作場所 50 強的化學公司。這是我們連續第三年獲此殊榮。

The award speaks to our winning culture, which enables us to innovate with our customers and integrate our acquisitions so successfully. We were also named one of the world's most ethical companies for the third consecutive year by Ethisphere for outstanding corporate ethics and corporate responsibility -- characteristics highly valued by our employees, our communities and our customers.

該獎項體現了我們的成功文化，這種文化使我們能夠與客戶一起創新，並成功地整合我們的收購。我們也連續第三年被道德村協會評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一，以表彰我們卓越的企業道德和企業責任——這些特質深受我們的員工、社區和客戶的高度重視。

Finally, we were recognized by the EPA as an Energy STAR Partner of the Year award, becoming the only chemical company to have received this recognition consecutively for five years in a row. And only two other chemical companies have received it once. This is a great win for both the environment and our cost structure.

最終，我們被美國環保署授予「年度能源之星合作夥伴」獎，成為唯一一家連續五年獲得此認可的化學公司。並且只有另外兩家化學公司獲得過一次該獎項。這對於環境和我們的成本結構來說都是一個巨大的勝利。

Our solid first-quarter results and the continued recognition we are receiving are a direct result of the great work being done by Eastman employees around the world and I want to thank them for their outstanding contribution. With that, I will turn it over to Curt.

我們第一季的穩健業績和持續獲得的認可直接歸功於全球伊士曼員工的出色工作，我要感謝他們的傑出貢獻。說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Curt。

Thanks, Mark; and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I know it's been a busy week for you. I'm going to go off script for a second here just to pile on a little to Mark's comments. I'm now coming on as CFO now coming on eight years and I just wanted to express the excitement we have with our various growth programs. When I look through my finance lens, I'm convinced that these growth programs will lead to meaningful revenue growth and strong returns for the coming years. And it's a real pleasure to watch a winning strategy get executed by Mark and our business, technology and strategy teams despite this business climate that we are facing and to be a part of that high-performing, winning culture that Mark talked about. So many of you know this already, good things are happening at Eastman that will benefit both 2016 and beyond. So with that, let me get back to my prepared remarks.

謝謝，馬克；也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我知道這對你來說是忙碌的一周。我將在這裡暫時偏離腳本，只是為了補充一些馬克的評論。我擔任財務長已有八年了，我只是想表達我們對各種成長計畫的興奮之情。當我從財務角度看待問題時，我確信這些成長計畫將在未來幾年帶來有意義的收入成長和強勁的回報。儘管我們面臨這樣的商業環境，但看到馬克和我們的業務、技術和策略團隊能夠執行製勝策略，並成為馬克所說的高績效、制勝文化的一部分，我們感到非常高興。你們中的許多人已經知道這一點，伊士曼正在發生好事，這將使 2016 年及以後受益。那麼，讓我回到我準備好的發言上來。

I will start on our first-quarter corporate results on slide 4. Overall, we've delivered a solid quarter in a challenging business climate. Sales revenue declined as solid sales volume growth was more than offset by lower selling prices. As we expected, the largest decline was in the Chemical Intermediates segment where low oil has its greatest impact. Our operating earnings decreased as strong performance in Advanced Materials was more than offset by a decline in Chemical Intermediates. Overall, earnings per share was solid reflecting good quality earnings and a lower tax rate.

我將從投影片 4 開始介紹我們第一季的公司業績。總體而言，我們在充滿挑戰的商業環境中取得了穩健的季度業績。銷售收入下降是因為銷售量的穩定成長被銷售價格的下降所抵銷。正如我們預期的那樣，跌幅最大的是化學中間體領域，該領域受低油價的影響最大。我們的營業利潤有所下降，因為先進材料的強勁表現被化學中間體的下滑所抵消。整體而言，每股盈餘穩健，反映出良好的收益品質和較低的稅率。

And I'm proud of how our commercial teams are finding the right balance of retaining appropriate value given the attributes and value proposition of our specialties and sharing some of that benefit of lower raws with our customers.

我為我們的商業團隊找到了正確的平衡而感到自豪，他們根據我們專業的屬性和價值主張保留了適當的價值，並與我們的客戶分享了較低原料帶來的一些好處。

On slide 5, I will transition to an overview of our cash flow and other finance highlights for the quarter. We continue to do an excellent job of generating cash with first-quarter operating cash flow of $47 million in what is typically our lowest quarter. These results reflect our normal beginning-of-the-year working capital build.

在第 5 張投影片上，我將概述本季的現金流量和其他財務亮點。我們繼續出色地完成現金創造工作，第一季的營運現金流為 4700 萬美元，而這通常是我們現金流最低的一個季度。這些結果反映了我們正常的年初營運資本累積。

Capital expenditures totaled $110 million. We continue to manage the pace of capital spending with the current economic environment while maintaining growth investments. We expect full-year capital expenditures to be approximately $650 million, maybe a little less as the year unfolds.

資本支出總計1.1億美元。我們將繼續根據當前經濟環境管理資本支出的步伐，同時維持成長投資。我們預計全年資本支出約為 6.5 億美元，隨著時間的推移，可能會略有減少。

Free cash flow was a negative $63 million for the quarter, consistent with our expectations. Our first-quarter dividend was $68 million. Our effective tax rate for the first quarter improved to approximately 24%. We continue to expect our full-year tax rate will be between 24% and 25% reflecting the continued benefits of our improved business operations, and we will continue doing what we can to be at the lower end of that range. For free cash flow, we remain on track to be above $900 million. As a whole, I'm pleased with our earnings and cash flow performance to start the year.

本季自由現金流為負 6,300 萬美元，與我們的預期一致。我們第一季的股息為 6800 萬美元。我們第一季的有效稅率提高至約24%。我們仍然預計全年稅率將在 24% 至 25% 之間，以反映我們改善的業務運營帶來的持續利益，並且我們將繼續盡最大努力將稅率保持在該範圍的較低水平。就自由現金流而言，我們仍有望達到 9 億美元以上。整體而言，我對我們今年年初的獲利和現金流表現感到滿意。

On slides 6 and 7, I will provide an overview of the two segments most affected by our business restructuring. This is the first quarter we're reporting under the new business structure so we thought this would be helpful. First, under our new structure, Additives & Functional Products, is well-positioned for GDP-plus growth with an attractive market footprint and diverse geographic profile. Our transportation exposure is about 75% replacement, 25% OEM. This split is similar for building and construction.

在第 6 張和第 7 張投影片中，我將概述受業務重組影響最大的兩個部分。這是我們在新的業務結構下報告的第一個季度，因此我們認為這會有所幫助。首先，在我們的新架構下，添加劑和功能產品憑藉著誘人的市場覆蓋和多樣化的地理分佈，在 GDP 成長方面佔據有利地位。我們的運輸風險約為 75% 為替換品，25% 為 OEM。對於建築和施工而言，這種劃分是類似的。

Performance drivers for this segment include increase in demand for quality vehicles, improvement in the housing market and increasing use of consumables by a growing middle class. And we remain focused on attractive secular growth end markets where innovation and deep customer connect offer a clear competitive advantage.

該領域的業績驅動因素包括優質汽車需求的增加、房地產市場的改善以及不斷壯大的中產階級對消費品的使用增加。我們仍然專注於有吸引力的長期成長終端市場，在這些市場中，創新和深度客戶聯繫具有明顯的競爭優勢。

As we look forward, I'm excited about the growth we expect from our innovation projects. Mark already shared an exceptional story of rapid innovation in India. We are continuing to see strong growth in our tire resins as a performance additive and strong growth in our low VOC, low odor coalescent for architectural paints. And we are just getting started with innovation efforts in alkylamines specialty.

展望未來，我對我們的創新項目所期望的成長感到非常興奮。馬克已經分享了印度快速創新的一個非凡故事。我們持續看到輪胎樹脂作為性能添加劑的強勁成長，以及建築塗料用低 VOC、低氣味成膜劑的強勁成長。我們才剛開始在烷基胺專業領域進行創新。

Next on slide 7, the new Chemical Intermediates segment, which now comprises the majority of our olefins exposure, will benefit from advantaged market positions in key intermediates, particularly in North America. Performance drivers for this segment include growing middle class, continued adoption of non-phthalate plasticizers and North America shale gas advantage. In addition, flexible market outlets will drive our asset utilization and support growth for our strategic specialty productlines.

接下來在第 7 張投影片上，新的化學中間體部門現在佔據了我們烯烴業務的大部分，它將受益於關鍵中間體（特別是在北美）的優勢市場地位。該領域的業績驅動因素包括中產階級的不斷壯大、非鄰苯二甲酸酯塑化劑的持續採用以及北美頁岩氣的優勢。此外，靈活的市場管道將推動我們的資產利用率並支持我們策略專業產品線的成長。

Overall, the segment has a set of good value-adding businesses, which benefit from scale, integration and reliability and are central to supporting the growth in our specialty businesses.

總體而言，該部門擁有一系列良好的增值業務，這些業務受益於規模、整合和可靠性，對於支持我們的專業業務成長至關重要。

Moving next to the segment results and starting with Advanced Materials on slide 8, which delivered a strong quarter. Sales revenue increased due to higher sales volume of premium products, including Eastman Tritan copolyester and Saflex acoustic interlayers. This was partially offset by lower selling prices primarily for copolyesters attributed to lower raw material costs.

接下來是分部業績，從第 8 張投影片上的先進材料開始，該部門本季表現強勁。銷售收入的成長是由於 Eastman Tritan 共聚酯和 Saflex 聲學夾層等優質產品的銷售增加。這部分被原材料成本下降導致的共聚酯銷售價格下降所抵銷。

Earnings increased primarily due to higher sales volume and improved product mix of premium product and lower unit costs due to higher asset utilization. Looking at the full year, we continue to expect strong results for Advanced Materials as they progress on our strategy for this business of volume growth, mix improvement and fixed cost leverage.

收益增加主要由於銷售量增加、優質產品組合改善以及資產利用率提高導致單位成本降低。放眼全年，我們繼續期待先進材料業務取得強勁業績，因為該公司正在按照我們針對該業務的產量增長、產品組合改善和固定成本槓桿策略不斷前進。

Sequentially, we expect volume will increase due to normal seasonality for our copolyester customers. We had strong sales in March and that has continued into April. Interlayer volumes remain strong as OEM auto build remains solid, acoustic growth continues and overall the building and construction market in Europe is improving. As a result, for the year, we expect greater than GDP volume growth for this business.

隨後，我們預計由於共聚酯客戶的正常季節性，銷售量將會增加。我們三月的銷售業績十分強勁，四月也保持著這樣的勢頭。由於 OEM 汽車製造保持穩健、聲學性能持續成長以及歐洲整體建築市場不斷改善，夾層板銷售仍保持強勁。因此，我們預計今年該業務的成長量將高於 GDP 的成長量。

In addition to the strong volume growth, we expect further robust mix improvement with continued growth in high-margin products such as Tritan copolyester and acoustic interlayers. As we continue to fill out our existing capacity, we benefit from fixed cost leverage. We expect all of these factors will result in strong earnings growth for Advanced Materials.

除了強勁的銷售成長之外，我們還預計產品組合將進一步強勁改善，Tritan 共聚酯和聲學夾層等高利潤產品將持續成長。隨著我們繼續填補現有產能，我們將受益於固定成本槓桿。我們預計所有這些因素都將導致先進材料公司的獲利強勁成長。

Now to Additives & Functional Products on slide 9. Overall, a solid quarter despite the short-term challenges. Revenue declined primarily due to lower selling prices attributed to lower raw material and energy costs and competitive pressure for certain products, particularly in Asia Pacific. Operating earnings decreased primarily due to an unfavorable shift in foreign currency rate.

現在就來看看投影片 9 上的添加劑和功能產品。總體而言，儘管面臨短期挑戰，但本季業績穩健。收入下降主要是由於原材料和能源成本下降以及某些產品的競爭壓力（尤其是在亞太地區）導致的銷售價格下降。營業收入下降主要是由於外匯匯率的不利變動。

Looking at the full-year 2016, we expect solid volume growth for AFP in line with the end market growth. In particular, we expect volume growth in the transportation, building and construction and consumables end markets. We also expect lower selling prices reflecting both lower raw material costs and, as we discussed in January, we did an excellent job holding onto value last year, but we also started to share this value with our customers towards the end of 2015 and through the first quarter of this year. Overall, we expect Additives & Functional Product to be stable to slightly down, which would be a solid result in the current business climate.

展望 2016 年全年，我們預計 AFP 的銷量將隨著終端市場的成長而穩定成長。特別是，我們預期運輸、建築和消耗品終端市場的銷售將會成長。我們也預期銷售價格會下降，這不僅反映了原材料成本的下降，也反映了我們在一月份討論過的，去年我們在保持價值方面做得非常出色，但我們也在 2015 年底和今年第一季度開始與客戶分享這一價值。總體而言，我們預計添加劑和功能產品將保持穩定或略有下降，這在當前的商業環境下將是一個可靠的結果。

Now to fibers on slide 10. Results for this segment were as expected. Sales revenue declined primarily due to lower acetyl chemical sales volume and lower acetate total selling price, mostly offset by higher acetate total sales volume. The higher acetate total sales volume was attributed to customer buying patterns. The decline in acetyl chemicals was due to lower cost internal sourcing of cellulose acetate flake raw materials, rather than obtaining these raw materials from our joint venture in Kingsport.

現在就來看看幻燈片 10 上的纖維。該部門的業績符合預期。銷售收入下降主要是由於乙醯化學品銷售下降和醋酸鹽總售價下降，但大部分被醋酸鹽總銷售量上升所抵消。醋酸鹽總銷售量的增加歸因於顧客的購買模式。乙醯化學品的下降是由於醋酸纖維素薄片原料的內部採購成本較低，而不是從我們在金斯波特的合資企業獲得這些原材料。

Earnings for the quarter declined moderately as lower selling prices were partially offset by higher acetate total sales volume, lower raw material and energy costs and reduced operating costs resulting from recent actions. (technical difficulty) mainly reflecting customer backward integration and destocking in China. We also expect selling prices to decline but to be mostly offset by lower raw material costs, as well as the benefit of cost actions we have taken. As a result, we are expecting earnings to be down close to 15% for the year.

本季收益略有下降，因為較低的銷售價格被較高的醋酸鹽總銷售量、較低的原材料和能源成本以及近期行動導致的營運成本降低部分抵消。（技術難度）主要反映中國客戶的向後整合和去庫存化。我們也預期銷售價格將會下降，但大部分會被原材料成本的下降以及我們採取的成本行動帶來的好處所抵消。因此，我們預計今年的獲利將下降近 15%。

I will finish up the segment review with Chemicals Intermediates on slide 11. Chemicals Intermediates delivered a solid quarter despite significant volatility impacting their business. Sales revenue in the first quarter declined primarily reflecting lower selling prices attributed to lower raw material costs. Chemicals Intermediates is also impacted by continued competitive pressure resulting from weak demand in Asia Pacific.

我將在第 11 張投影片上結束化學中間體的片段回顧。儘管業務受到巨大波動的影響，化學中間體業務仍在本季表現穩健。第一季銷售收入下降主要因為原物料成本下降導致銷售價格下降。化學中間體也受到亞太地區需求疲軟導致的持續競爭壓力的影響。

Operating earnings declined in part due to a difficult comparison. In the first half of 2015, we did a great job of holding onto value during a period of significant raw material cost decline. In the first quarter of 2016, selling prices were down reflecting the lower raw material costs and therefore margins declined.

營業利潤下降的部分原因是難以比較。2015年上半年，在原料成本大幅下降的時期，我們出色地維持了價值。2016年第一季度，由於原物料成本下降，銷售價格下降，因此利潤率下降。

Looking at the full-year 2016, we expect a number of factors to impact results. We expect solid volume growth due to continued plasticizers growth, particularly in the building and construction market, as well as overall modest growth in North America, which is almost 70% of the overall segment revenue.

展望2016年全年，我們預期有許多因素會影響業績。我們預計，由於增塑劑的持續成長，特別是在建築和施工市場，以及北美地區的整體溫和成長（佔整個部門收入的近 70%），銷售將實現穩健成長。

We also expect olefin margins to remain under pressure as their recent increase in oil price has not yet translated to improving olefin prices, particularly ethylene. And we expect lower methanol prices to enable lower pricing by competitors in some of our acetyl and amines productlines. Therefore, for 2016, we expect earnings to be meaningfully lower given the low oil environment and the pressure on spreads.

我們也預期烯烴利潤率將持續承壓，因為近期油價上漲尚未轉化為烯烴價格上漲，尤其是乙烯價格上漲。我們預計甲醇價格的下降將導致我們的部分乙醯基和胺類產品線的競爭對手降低價格。因此，考慮到低油價環境和利差壓力，我們預計 2016 年的獲利將大幅下降。

And I'd add that when you think about how the year will unfold, we expect second-quarter operating earnings will be lower than first quarter due to both significantly higher maintenance shutdown costs and how our propane hedge flows through costs.

我想補充一點，當你思考今年將如何展開時，我們預計第二季度的營業收入將低於第一季度，這是由於維護停工成本大幅增加以及我們的丙烷對沖成本的流向。

Lastly, I will give you a quick update on our process for divesting our merchant ethylene position and potentially other commodity olefin productlines. As we mentioned in January, we are moving forward with this process and have engaged bankers. The books are now out and we are talking with potential buyers and are pleased with the initial interest. We will be disciplined, patient sellers as we move through this process and we will update you further as the process continues to progress. With that, I will turn it back over to Mark.

最後，我將簡要介紹我們剝離商用乙烯業務以及其他潛在商品烯烴產品線的流程。正如我們在一月份提到的那樣，我們正在推進這一進程並與銀行家進行了接觸。這些書現在已經出版，我們正在與潛在買家洽談，並對最初的興趣感到高興。在此過程中，我們將保持紀律，耐心對待賣家，並隨著流程的不斷進展向您提供最新資訊。說完這些，我會把話題交還給馬克。

Thanks, Curt. I will transition to our outlook on slide 12. We have a strong portfolio of specialty businesses. They've delivered over the last six years and we expect that to continue in 2016. We expect our innovative specialty products will continue to grow strongly, improving product mix and accelerating overall earnings growth. And we are levered to grow in attractive end markets, especially transportation, building construction and consumables. We are equally committed to meet our aggressive cost reduction targets. In addition, we expect to achieve further cost synergies from our acquisitions and after delevering, we also expect to repurchase shares in the back half of the year.

謝謝，Curt。我將在第 12 張投影片上介紹我們的展望。我們擁有強大的專業業務組合。他們在過去六年中取得了豐碩的成果，我們預計這種勢頭在 2016 年將繼續延續。我們預計，我們的創新特色產品將持續強勁成長，改善產品結構並加速整體獲利成長。我們致力於在具有吸引力的終端市場中實現成長，尤其是運輸、建築施工和消費品市場。我們同樣致力於實現我們積極的成本削減目標。此外，我們預期透過收購實現進一步的成本綜效，去槓桿後，我們也預期在今年下半年回購股票。

In the near term, however, slow global economic growth combined with low oil and weak Asian and European currencies are increasing competitive pressure in some products. And as we guided earlier in the year, we expect some inventory destocking in China to impact fibers results. Net, we will continue to drive hard to deliver EPS that approaches our 2015 EPS, and we are maintaining our guidance for EPS to be flat to down 5%; and given where olefin spreads are today, we are likely to be more towards the lower end of that range. I'd also note that the first half of the year will be a tougher comp than the back half.

然而，短期內，全球經濟成長緩慢、石油價格低迷以及亞洲和歐洲貨幣疲軟將加大某些產品的競爭壓力。正如我們今年稍早所預測的那樣，我們預計中國的一些庫存去化將影響纖維的表現。淨值方面，我們將繼續努力實現接近 2015 年每股收益的每股收益，並且我們維持每股收益持平或下降 5% 的指導；考慮到目前烯烴價差的水平，我們可能會更接近該範圍的低端。我還要指出的是，今年上半年的競爭將比下半年更加艱難。

As I look beyond 2016, we are well-positioned for growth, as these short-term challenges recede and our strong growth drivers continue. Altogether, I am confident we will continue to deliver attractive earnings growth in the long term as we transform towards the specialty portfolio. Thanks for joining us this morning and I look forward to your questions.

展望2016年後，隨著這些短期挑戰逐漸消退以及我們強勁的成長動力持續存在，我們已為成長做好了充分準備。總而言之，我相信，隨著我們向專業投資組合轉型，我們將在長期內繼續實現可觀的獲利成長。感謝您今天早上加入我們，我期待您的提問。

Thanks, Mark. We've got a lot of people on the line this morning and we'd like to get to as many questions as possible, so I ask you to please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. With that, Taylor, we are ready for questions.

謝謝，馬克。今天早上我們有很多人在線，我們希望盡可能多地回答問題，因此我請您將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。泰勒，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。（操作員指令）。大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Good morning. On the guidance, you have strong Q1 beat. The world has gotten probably a little bit better since late January. FX a little bit better as well. Yet you are now guiding towards a lower half of that down flat to down 5% range. So it seems awfully conservative. Help me with that, if you can.

早安.根據指導，您的第一季業績表現強勁。自一月底以來，世界可能已經變得稍微好了一些。FX 也稍微好一點。然而，您現在的指導方針是下降幅度在持平至下降 5% 的範圍內。因此它看起來非常保守。如果可以的話，請幫幫我。

Sure, Dave. So obviously it's a pretty dynamic environment out there with oil and currency and it's difficult to predict the next month, let alone the remainder of the year. What I love about our portfolio right now is we are growing the way we should in our specialties. We are driving a lot of strong volume growth, a lot of mix improvement through innovation in Advanced Materials, doing a great job of holding onto value and -- as in Functional Products. So we feel good about that and we feel great about the cost reductions coming through as we expected.

當然，戴夫。顯然，石油和貨幣的環境非常動態，很難預測下個月的情況，更不用說今年剩餘時間的情況了。我對我們的投資組合目前感到滿意的一點是，我們正在各自的專業領域中以應有的方式發展。我們透過先進材料的創新推動了銷售的強勁成長和產品組合的大幅改善，在保持價值方面做得很好——就像在功能產品方面一樣。因此，我們對此感到滿意，並且對成本削減如預期般實現感到十分高興。

But what we are not seeing right now as we expected in January is the improvement in olefin spreads. Oil has certainly gone up, as we all know, to $45, but we are not seeing the olefin prices recover in the way we would have expected, especially on the ethylene side. So it should have been more in the low $0.30 range and we got spot down to $0.25. So that's really the main issue, Dave.

但我們現在並沒有看到烯烴價差像一月預期的那樣改善。眾所周知，石油價格確實上漲了 45 美元，但我們並沒有看到烯烴價格以我們預期的方式回升，尤其是乙烯方面。因此，它應該在 0.30 美元的低位範圍內，而我們將現貨價格降至 0.25 美元。所以這確實是主要問題，戴夫。

There's some increasing competitive activity with currencies. Currency isn't just about FX translation; it includes how people use that improved cost structure to pursue volume, unsuccessfully, I might add, but they give it a good shot and that puts some price pressure on the marketplace that you have to respond. So we are seeing a little bit of that here and there, but principally it's an olefins issue.

貨幣方面的競爭活動日益增加。貨幣不僅涉及外匯轉換；它還包括人們如何利用改進的成本結構來追求銷量，我想補充一點，雖然沒有成功，但他們會做出努力，這會給市場帶來一些價格壓力，你必須做出回應。我們到處都看到一點這樣的情況，但主要是烯烴問題。

Overall, though, I feel very much on track with our strategy and how we are going to create earnings growth, especially as you look at it from 2016 through 2017 and beyond. And the one interesting upside that's coming out of all of this is we are finding customers highly motivated to find innovation these days because we are all living in a tough world. And so we are seeing tremendous engagement even from Asian customers looking on how to innovate and value up their product portfolios. So we are really starting to see some acceleration on that front, which is great to see.

但總體而言，我感覺我們的策略以及我們將如何創造獲利成長非常順利，特別是從 2016 年到 2017 年及以後來看。這一切帶來的一個有趣的好處是，我們發現如今的顧客非常積極地尋求創新，因為我們都生活在一個艱難的世界。因此，我們看到甚至亞洲客戶也積極參與，研究如何創新和提升其產品組合的價值。因此，我們確實開始看到這方面的一些加速，這是令人高興的。

Understood. And just on fibers, Mark, destocking, when do you think it will end? Will it go into 2017? And post destocking ending, what's your view of long-term secular volume trends in this business?

明白了。馬克，就纖維而言，去庫存化，您認為什麼時候會結束？它會持續到 2017 年嗎？去庫存結束後，您對該行業的長期銷售趨勢有何看法？

Sure, so I will break it down both from a cigarette demand point of view and a tow point of view. So on the cigarette side, we see primary demand being very consistent with our views we've shared in all the previous calls. Outside of China, it's sort of down 1% to 2% like it's been for years. Inside China, we are still not seeing any signs that there is some significant change in primary consumption of cigarettes, so I would call it flat, maybe up 1%, but there's some uncertainty here in the short term as the economic pressure in China could affect people's rate of purchasing cigarettes.

當然，所以我將從香菸需求的角度和拖車的角度來分析一下。因此，就香菸方面而言，我們認為主要需求與我們在之前所有電話會議中分享的觀點非常一致。在中國以外，這一數字與過去幾年一樣，下降了 1% 至 2%。在中國，我們仍然沒有看到任何跡象表明捲菸初級消費量出現重大變化，因此我認為它將持平，也許會上漲1%，但短期內仍存在一些不確定性，因為中國的經濟壓力可能會影響人們購買捲菸的速度。

But, overall, I'd say it's very stable and especially when you think inside China that the Chinese National Tobacco Company principal goal is to grow tax revenue. They are assigned a target to grow at stated China GDP around 6.5%, 7% and they've never missed their target, ever, from what I know. So I think we should expect stability there when it comes to primary demand.

但總體而言，我認為它非常穩定，特別是當你想到中國菸草總公司的主要目標是增加稅收收入時。他們被賦予了在中國GDP成長6.5%、7%左右的目標，據我所知，他們從來沒有錯過這個目標。因此我認為，就初級需求而言，我們應該預期穩定。

So then you get back to what's going on in destocking and what we see is, at the tow level, the Chinese National Tobacco Company has set a pretty aggressive destocking target for tow this year and you have to remember that demand drop last year and this year is a function of two things. The first driver is CNTC backward-integrating with us in 2014, with Daicel in 2015, and so a certain amount of import demand was just replaced by internal production inside China. That's actually a little bit bigger driver than destocking relative to primary demand.

那麼，回到去庫存的情況，我們看到，在菸草層面，中國菸草總公司今年為菸草設定了相當積極的去庫存目標，你必須記住，去年和今年的需求下降是兩件事的結果。第一個驅動因素是中國菸草總公司於 2014 年與我們進行了後向整合，2015 年與大賽璐進行了後向整合，因此一定數量的進口需求被中國國內生產所取代。相對於主要需求而言，這實際上比去庫存化的影響更大一些。

And so you've got that happening, plus they've built up too much tow inventory in their imports as they did this backward-integration and so now they are pulling the inventory down. Their target puts it to a very low level, so I think that destocking will be complete.

所以你會看到這種情況，而且由於他們進行這種向後整合，他們在進口中積累了太多的拖車庫存，所以現在他們正在減少庫存。他們的目標把它設定在一個非常低的水平，所以我認為去庫存將會完成。

So we are now really looking at what other decisions do they make around cigarette inventory in the marketplace in between tow and primary demand? That's very opaque. We think they are making good progress on that and they've got this mandate to keep on growing. So I think the vast majority of the destocking should be behind us, but I'm not going to forecast inventory of cigarettes in China.

因此，我們現在真正要關注的是，在拖曳需求和主要需求之間，他們在市場上的香菸庫存方面還做出了哪些其他決定？這非常不透明。我們認為他們在這方面取得了良好進展，並且他們有繼續發展的權利。因此，我認為絕大多數去庫存化應該已經過去，但我不會預測中國的香菸庫存。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Good morning, everyone. Can you talk a little bit more about -- last quarter, you mentioned that, on the specialty side of the house, you were worried about the spreads that had opened up and you were actively stepping out and trying to partner with your customers and trying to find a spread that would be conducive to both of you being happy and remove the risk that customers would come in and try to reformulate -- competitors would try to come in and reformulate customers away from you. Can you talk a little bit about where you are in that process and do we know how it's going to play out over the balance of the year or not?

大家早安。您能否再多談一點——上個季度，您提到，在特色產品方面，您擔心已經出現的價差，並且您正在積極地走出去，嘗試與您的客戶合作，並嘗試找到一種有利於雙方都滿意的價差，並消除客戶進來嘗試重新配製的風險——競爭對手會試圖進來並重新配製產品，從而將客戶從您身邊趕走。您能否稍微談談您目前處於哪個階段，以及我們是否知道今年餘下的時間裡它將如何發展？

Well, I think you described the situation pretty well; I'm not sure I need to say anything else, but that's exactly what we've been doing. In Advanced Materials, we've been growing through volume and mix and spreads have been relatively stable when it comes to raw materials. And so that is a volume mix story in how we are improving the margins there and how we are growing and delivering results. So I would take that off the table and we feel very stable about how we are going to grow there.

嗯，我認為你對情況的描述非常好；我不確定我是否需要再說些什麼，但這正是我們一直在做的事情。在先進材料領域，我們的產量和品種不斷成長，原料的價差也相對穩定。這就是我們如何提高利潤率以及如何發展和取得成果的數量組合故事。所以我會把這個排除在外，我們對如何在那裡發展感到非常穩定。

AFP, as you saw, prices came off a bit in the first quarter and what we did last year, and on a restated basis, if you look at Adds & Functional Products last year, from 2014 to 2015, prices were only down about 3%. So we had a great success last year in holding onto value through the beginning half of last year really through the third quarter, expanding our margins and tremendous growth in earnings as you can now see in Adds & Functional Products in our specialty businesses from 2014 to 2015.

法新社，正如您所看到的，第一季的價格與去年相比有所下降，按照重述的基礎來看，如果您看一下去年的附加功能產品，從 2014 年到 2015 年，價格僅下降了約 3%。因此，我們在去年取得了巨大的成功，從上半年到第三季度一直保持著價值，擴大了我們的利潤率，盈利也大幅增長，正如您從 2014 年至 2015 年在我們專業業務中的附加功能產品中所看到的那樣。

So we started giving some of that value back and sharing the value of raw materials with our customer in the fourth quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year, which is the right thing to do. It's the way you create value because, at the end of the day, what you all want is us to grow long term, not just short term, our earnings. And you've got to have marketshare and more importantly, you've got to have customers that are motivated and engaged with you to work on innovation for the next generation of products.

因此，從去年第四季到今年第一季度，我們開始回饋部分價值並與客戶分享原材料的價值，這是正確的做法。這是創造價值的方式，因為歸根究底，你們都希望我們的收益能夠實現長期成長，而不僅僅是短期成長。你必須擁有市場份額，更重要的是，你必須擁有積極主動並願意與你一起為下一代產品進行創新的客戶。

And I think we are walking that balance as carefully as we can and margins, I would expect, will normalize around what you are seeing in the first quarter. And I think that's what we will see for the rest of the year.

我認為我們正在盡可能謹慎地保持這種平衡，我預計利潤率將在第一季恢復正常。我認為這就是我們今年剩餘時間將會看到的情況。

So I think that that business is doing well and there's always the choice to hold prices high, be aggressive and deliver greater earnings relative to ROS in the short term, but sooner or later, you are setting yourself up for a volume fall and certainly a lack of innovation in that portfolio if you do that because customers aren't very motivated when they can see how much your raw materials have improved to work with you.

因此，我認為該業務表現良好，並且總是可以選擇維持高價，積極進取並在短期內實現相對於 ROS 更高的收益，但如果你這樣做，遲早你會面臨銷量下降，而且肯定會導致產品組合缺乏創新，因為當客戶看到你的原材料有了多大的改進時，他們不會很積極地與你合作。

So we are not going to make that choice. I think that's a mistake and I am proud of how the team is walking that balance. It's not easy in a tough environment where we are pushing hard for earnings growth every day, but I think that's going to work out well for us long term.

所以我們不會做出這樣的選擇。我認為這是一個錯誤，我為球隊如何實現這種平衡感到自豪。在艱難的環境中，我們每天都在努力實現獲利成長，這並不容易，但我認為，從長遠來看，這對我們有利。

And then just quickly, I heard your comment in your prepared remarks about still expecting to repurchase shares in the back half of the year. You didn't mention M&A at all. The landscape out there is changing a little bit with different companies splitting off and spinning off and things like that. I guess valuations are still high, but any change in your view on M&A?

然後很快，我聽到了您在準備好的發言中關於仍然預計在今年下半年回購股票的評論。你根本沒有提到併購。隨著不同公司的分拆、剝離等，情況正在發生一些變化。我認為估值仍然很高，但您對併購的看法有任何變化嗎？

On the M&A front, we are certainly not looking at any large M&A. I view the valuations of assets trading lately as very high, and would struggle to see how I would be delivering a good return on invested capital to our investors, so I think we are staying away from that. Bolt-on M&A is always something that you will consider when it's reinforcing an existing business to improve its competitive position or relevance to consumers -- customers. But right now, even there we are not really looking at anything in the short term.

在併購方面，我們當然不會考慮任何大型併購。我認為最近資產交易的估值非常高，很難看到如何為我們的投資者帶來良好的投資資本回報，所以我認為我們會遠離這種情況。當需要加強現有業務以提高其競爭地位或與消費者（客戶）的相關性時，您總是會考慮進行附加併購。但目前，即使如此，我們也沒有真正考慮任何短期問題。

So I think that as you think about our very strong free cash flow that's outstanding for this industry, you should think about it supporting increasing dividends and repurchasing shares after we finish the delevering.

因此，我認為，當您想到我們非常強勁的自由現金流（這對該行業來說是傑出的）時，您應該考慮它在我們完成去槓桿後支持增加股息和回購股票。

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

好的，完美。非常感謝。

Bob Koort, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的鮑伯‧庫爾特 (Bob Koort)。

Good morning. This is Ryan Berney on for Bob Koort. Digging again back into that cash flow question, would you say that, with large-scale M&A off the table, is an investment-grade credit rating still a high priority for you, and is that going to be a significant use of your cash flow proceeds, or has your thinking shifted more towards returning cash to shareholders?

早安.我是 Ryan Berney，為 Bob Koort 主持節目。再次回到現金流問題，您是否認為，在大規模併購計畫取消的情況下，投資等級信用評等是否仍是您的首要任務？這是否會成為您現金流收益的重要用途？或者，您的想法是否已轉向向股東返還現金？

Well, what you've seen from us and will continue to see from us is disciplined and balanced across all the buckets where we can deploy our cash. Mark already addressed M&A, as well as the share repurchases. From an investment grade standpoint, yes, we are committed to our investment grade credit rating and we will continue to take the actions necessary to maintain that credit rating, but I think you'll see balanced use of our cash flow going into 2017.

嗯，您從我們身上看到的以及將繼續看到的是，我們在所有可以部署現金的領域都採取了嚴謹而平衡的政策。馬克已經談到了併購以及股票回購問題。從投資等級的角度來看，是的，我們致力於我們的投資等級信用評級，我們將繼續採取必要的行動來維持該信用評級，但我認為你會看到我們在 2017 年的現金流的平衡使用。

Great. Thank you. And then on the acquisition synergies you mentioned in your outlook, could you give us a sense for how much of that you estimate you are going to capture in 2016?

偉大的。謝謝。然後，關於您在展望中提到的收購綜效，您能否告訴我們，您預計在 2016 年您將實現多少收購綜效？

Well, if you look at the synergies, in 2015, we achieved roughly $25 million. For 2016, we expect that to be roughly $50 million of cost and operational synergies, as well as some additional tax synergies and you've seen those tax synergies showing up in our effective tax rate.

嗯，如果你看一下協同效應，2015 年我們實現了約 2500 萬美元的收益。2016 年，我們預計成本和營運綜效約為 5,000 萬美元，以及一些額外的租稅協同效應，您已經看到這些租稅綜效體現在我們的有效稅率中。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Aleksey Yefremov, Nomura Securities.

阿列克謝·葉夫列莫夫，野村證券。

Good morning. This is [Jeegan Beshart] sitting in for Aleksey. So a question, in Advanced Materials, could you provide a little bit more color on your comments between volume and mix? What products are you and maybe even regions do you see mix upgrades versus volume?

早安.這是 [Jeegan Beshart] 代替 Aleksey。那麼，在《先進材料》中有一個問題，您能否對體積和混合之間的評論提供更多細節？您認為哪些產品，甚至哪些地區的產品組合升級與產量升級有關？

Great question. Love answering that one. Advanced Materials is just rocking it again this year, building on a great year last year. Incredibly proud of that team and driving innovation across the portfolio. So we are seeing strong growth in Tritan as we've seen for several years now growing in housewares, seeing some really and very encouraging wins around medical and that's going to continue. Also continued great success in our new displays products growing with the mobile devices, delivering very attractive margins, as well as growth.

好問題。我很樂意回答這個問題。在去年取得優異成績的基礎上，先進材料今年再次取得佳績。我為這個團隊感到無比自豪，並推動整個投資組合的創新。因此，我們看到 Tritan 的強勁成長，正如我們幾年來在家庭用品領域看到的那樣，在醫療領域也取得了一些真正令人鼓舞的勝利，而且這種趨勢還將繼續下去。我們的新顯示器產品也隨著行動裝置的發展而持續取得巨大成功，帶來了非常可觀的利潤和成長。

Interlayers is just having another phenomenal year building on top of last year, in addition to OEM growth rate, which has clearly been pretty good around the world, especially in North America and Europe. We are seeing a significant increase in our real estate of the car, so we are moving from the windshields to the side lamps to the sunroofs as they are adding more, not just laminated glass, but typically acoustic-laminated glass to quiet the cabin for a better rider experience. So we are seeing great engagement there.

Interlayers 在去年的基礎上又迎來了輝煌的一年，此外，OEM 增長率在全球範圍內，尤其是北美和歐洲，都表現相當不錯。我們看到汽車的實際空間顯著增加，因此，我們將從擋風玻璃轉移到側燈和天窗，因為它們增加了更多，不僅僅是夾層玻璃，而且通常是隔音夾層玻璃，以使車廂安靜，從而提供更好的駕駛體驗。因此，我們看到那裡的參與度很高。

In fact, when I was with a key glass customer in Japan last week, it was very exciting to hear about how much they are looking forward to our next-gen acoustics and heads-up display products. So we've added a lot of value to this industry already and we've got a new acoustic product that's going to allow them to lightweight the glass, maybe take as much as 25% of the weight of the glass out, which is a big deal. And we've got a far superior heads-up display product coming out as well that's going to dramatically increase the size and clarity, allowing a lot of mobility to be added of information to the car for the whole new Internet of Things trend in the car. So a lot of engagement, a lot of innovation there, so great success.

事實上，上週當我與日本的一位重要玻璃客戶會面時，聽到他們對我們的下一代聲學和平視顯示產品的期待，我感到非常興奮。因此，我們已經為這個行業增加了很多價值，而且我們有一種新的聲學產品，可以減輕玻璃的重量，可能可以減輕 25% 的玻璃重量，這是一個很大的進步。我們也推出了一款性能更優越的平視顯示器產品，其尺寸和清晰度將大幅提升，從而能夠為汽車增添大量移動信息，滿足汽車物聯網的全新趨勢。因此，我們參與度很高，創新很多，並且取得了巨大的成功。

And then even in performance films, we've rolled out a very successful new channel strategy in performance films where we are growing, especially in North America, bringing a lot more people into the category, seeing the value proposition of greater solar rejection, skin production from skin cancer, as well as [aesthetics] and security. So just all fronts are hitting really well right now, real excited about what those teams are getting done.

甚至在表演電影領域，我們也推出了非常成功的新通路策略，尤其是在北美，我們正在不斷發展壯大，讓更多的人進入這一領域，看到更大的太陽輻射阻隔、防止皮膚癌的皮膚生成以及[美學]和安全的價值主張。所以現在各方面都進展順利，我對這些團隊所取得的成就感到非常興奮。

And do you think you can grow interlayers from secular growth even in a slower auto OEM growth environment?

您是否認為即使在汽車 OEM 成長較慢的環境中，也能透過長期成長實現夾層的成長？

We do. We see that -- we are always going to be tied to OEM growth rate to some extent. That business is about 75% OEM, 25% replacement where off our transportation -- by the way, Adds & Functional Products is the reverse, 25% OEM/75% replacement. So we are going to be tied to OEM growth rate to some degree, but I think that the ability to grow in the real estate and most importantly value of mix where we are selling much higher margin acoustic and heads-up display products at a much higher rate than the OEM growth rate allows us to continue to grow earnings.

是的。我們看到——我們總是會在某種程度上與 OEM 成長率掛鉤。該業務約 75% 為 OEM，25% 為替換，而我們的運輸業務則相反，Adds & Functional Products 的情況是，25% 為 OEM/75% 為替換。因此，我們將在某種程度上與 OEM 成長率掛鉤，但我認為，房地產的成長能力以及最重要的組合價值（我們以遠高於 OEM 成長率的速度銷售利潤率更高的聲學和平視顯示產品）使我們能夠繼續增加收益。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

PJ Juvekar, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 PJ Juvekar。

Good morning. A question on your Additives & Functional Products. Your prices dropped 8%. Some of these products, like coatings additives, I know you are at the lower prices to your customers, so what is the range of price declines in this segment? Is Crystex flat and some products down double digits? Can you just help us sort through the pricing?

早安.關於你們的添加劑和功能產品的一個問題。你們的價格下降了8%。其中一些產品，例如塗料添加劑，我知道你們提供給客戶的是較低的價格，那麼這個細分市場的價格下降幅度是多少？Crystex 是否持平，而有些產品則下降了兩位數？能幫我們整理一下價格嗎？

Sure. So, as I said, this is a place where we've had a lot of margin expansion last year relative to raw materials dropping. In particular, the place where we saw the tightest conditions last year was in adhesives where we were able to maintain very good price discipline while raws improved and that place -- we are giving back some price as the market for some of the products were moving to a more balanced versus tight position. And we knew that was coming. We told the investors about that for several quarters now and that's playing out as expected, but that's some of the price decline.

當然。因此，正如我所說，相對於原物料價格下跌，我們去年的利潤率大幅提高。特別是，去年我們看到最緊張的情況是黏合劑，我們能夠保持非常好的價格紀律，同時原材料有所改善，並且由於某些產品的市場正在轉向更加平衡而不是緊張的狀態，我們正在回落一些價格。我們知道那會發生。我們已經向投資者通報了幾個季度的情況，而且情況正如預期的那樣，但這也是價格下跌的原因之一。

The other place is in the olefin-related products, the specialty products like our coalescence, where we are seeing some prices being shared with our customers. As those raw materials improved last year, we held prices fairly well and now we are reducing some prices there to share the value with our customers.

另一個地方是烯烴相關產品，例如我們的聚結等特殊產品，我們看到一些價格與我們的客戶共享。由於去年這些原料的價格上漲，我們維持了相當好的價格，現在我們正在降低部分價格，與客戶分享價值。

And we are seeing prices come off a bit in the Crystex product as we are growing in that business and defending our share. Again, very much as we expected, but some of the price is coming off there, especially in Asia.

隨著我們在該業務上的成長和市場份額的鞏固，我們看到 Crystex 產品的價格有所下降。再次，正如我們預期的那樣，但部分價格正在下降，特別是在亞洲。

What I would say is quite encouraging about the tires market is we are seeing a nice recovery in demand in tires, especially in the first quarter here relative to last year and that market getting back on stable footing and well-positioned to deliver some nice volume growth this year.

我想說的是，輪胎市場令人鼓舞的是，我們看到輪胎需求出現了良好的復甦，尤其是與去年同期相比，第一季的輪胎需求有所回升，而且輪胎市場已經恢復穩定，並有望在今年實現良好的銷量增長。

So overall, I'd say the prices are more or less playing out the way we would expect. It's important that we defend our markets and keep these customers engaged as we work on this next generation of product introductions. Really excited about the Crystex process that we are launching. We've got the retrofit line in Germany up and running. That'll improve our cost and enable us to have a much superior product and the [Quantum] project is going well, so it's all coming together nicely.

所以總的來說，我認為價格走勢基本上符合我們的預期。當我們致力於推出下一代產品時，重要的是我們要捍衛我們的市場並保持這些客戶的參與。我們對即將推出的 Crystex 流程感到非常興奮。我們在德國的改造生產線已經投入運作。這將改善我們的成本，使我們能夠擁有更優質的產品，而且[Quantum]專案進展順利，所以一切都進展順利。

And just a question on oil price. The recent bounceback is not necessarily helping you, but do you see less of a negative impact from propane hedges as a result? Thank you.

我只想問一個關於油價的問題。最近的反彈不一定對您有幫助，但您是否認為丙烷對沖的負面影響會因此減少？謝謝。

I will let Curt answer the hedge question first and then I will just talk about the overall olefins market.

我將首先讓 Curt 回答對沖問題，然後我將談論整個烯烴市場。

Yes, PJ, the way we are seeing the hedges, the hedges as we've talked about at the start of the year, we do expect some of the propane hedges are rolling off, but yet the out-of-money conditions got a little worse. But still when I look across the hedging portfolio of both currency and propane hedges, the impact of roughly $0.60 a share last year net is still roughly the same amount of impact we are expecting this year.

是的，PJ，我們看到的對沖方式，就像我們在年初談到的對沖一樣，我們確實預計一些丙烷對沖正在減少，但價外狀況卻變得更糟了。但是，當我查看貨幣和丙烷對沖的對沖組合時，去年每股約 0.60 美元的淨影響仍然與我們今年預期的影響大致相同。

So it's not a cost structure issue that's out of line with what we would expect; it's an olefin price issue, PJ. So we are just not seeing olefin prices, particularly ethylene prices, come up as we would've expected in the second quarter right now and so we are being a bit cautious on how that's going to play out.

因此，這不是一個與我們預期不符的成本結構問題；而是烯烴價格問題，PJ。因此，我們目前沒有看到烯烴價格，特別是乙烯價格像我們預期的那樣在第二季上漲，因此我們對未來走勢持謹慎態度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Roberts, UBS.

瑞銀集團的約翰羅伯茲。

Morning. Could you close a transaction at Longview without settling with Westlake, or having them drop their appeal, or maybe they've already dropped their appeal and we just don't know it?

早晨。您是否可以在不與 Westlake 達成和解或不讓他們放棄上訴的情況下在 Longview 完成交易，或者也許他們已經放棄了上訴而我們不知道？

Well, just on the pipeline dispute, there's no material update with regard to the pipeline dispute. We've been successful with both the Texas Railroad Commission and the appeal efforts to ensure the pipeline offers bidirectional flow and exchanges. Again, while we recognize there's a few more potential steps to completely resolve the dispute, we are confident we can move forward because quite honestly those remaining steps, the timing of those, are probably roughly the same amount of time we think it's going to take to execute a transaction. So we feel very comfortable that the pipeline dispute will not be a reason we don't move forward with the process.

嗯，就管道糾紛而言，目前沒有關於管道糾紛的重大更新。我們與德州鐵路委員會和上訴機構合作，成功確保管道提供雙向流動和交換。再次強調，雖然我們認識到要徹底解決爭端還需要採取一些潛在步驟，但我們有信心能夠繼續前進，因為坦白地說，這些剩餘步驟的時間可能與我們認為執行交易所需的時間大致相同。因此，我們非常放心，管道糾紛不會成為我們不推進這項進程的原因。

Secondly, Philip Morris has a new product called iQOS, which I guess is the latest incarnation of the Heat Stick, and I was reading The Economist that it's getting traction in Japan. Does that have a filter component?

其次，菲利普莫里斯推出了一款名為 iQOS 的新產品，我猜這是 Heat Stick 的最新版本，我在《經濟學人》上看到它在日本越來越受歡迎。它有過濾組件嗎？

It does have a filter component. It's not quite as large as a normal cigarette, but it does include a filter, from my knowledge. I haven't looked specifically at the details of those products, but I know the past versions have.

它確實有一個過濾組件。它不像普通香煙那麼大，但據我所知，它確實帶有過濾嘴。我沒有具體研究過這些產品的細節，但我知道過去的版本已經研究過了。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Good morning. When I look at your gross profit margin on a sequential basis, it went up about 180 basis points from 26.6 to 28.4 even though the revenues really didn't change all that much from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016. So can you talk about why there was such a large gross margin change even though there really wasn't a meaningful revenue change?

早安.當我按順序查看你們的毛利率時，我發現它從 26.6 上升到 28.4，上升了約 180 個基點，儘管從 2015 年第四季度到 2016 年第一季度，收入實際上並沒有發生太大變化。那麼，您能否解釋為什麼在收入沒有顯著變化的情況下，毛利率卻發生瞭如此大的變化？

Well, I think what that reflects is that relationship between pricing, raw materials and the value that Mark talked about, as well as what you are continuing to see is improved mix. So what you are seeing -- what you are exchanging is maybe some lower value revenue for some better value revenue through the revenue that you saw through the first quarter.

嗯，我認為這反映的是馬克談到的定價、原材料和價值之間的關係，以及你繼續看到的改進的組合。因此，您所看到的——您所交換的可能是透過第一季看到的收入，將一些較低價值的收入轉換為一些更高價值的收入。

The other factor, fourth quarter has quite a bit of propane hedge in it, Jeff. First quarter restarts, so hedge starts falling into inventory and COGS doesn't come out of inventory until the second quarter. So the biggest delta you are seeing on the cost side is going from quite a bit of the propane hedge to basically none in the first quarter.

另一個因素是，第四季有相當多的丙烷對沖，傑夫。第一季重新開始，因此對沖開始落入庫存，而 COGS 直到第二季度才從庫存中出來。因此，您在成本方面看到的最大增量是第一季丙烷對沖從相當多變為基本上為零。

I'm sorry to focus on commodities, but -- so for the propane hedge this year, is it the case that the first quarter has the smallest amount and the fourth quarter will have the largest amount? And before, you were reflecting on ethylene values, but contract prices have really moved up to, I think, $0.30 a pound. Why is it that spot matters so much more to Eastman than contract matters in terms of ethylene prices? So there are sort of two questions in there.

很抱歉，我把重點放在大宗商品上，但是——那麼，對於今年的丙烷對沖來說，第一季的數量最少，而第四季的數量最多嗎？之前，您考慮的是乙烯價值，但我認為合約價格實際上已經上漲至每磅 0.30 美元。就乙烯價格而言，為什麼現貨對伊士曼來說比合約更重要？這裡面有兩個問題。

Well, I will talk about the hedge. You are right; the hedge impact is the lowest in the first quarter. I'm not sure I'd characterize it as the heaviest in the fourth quarter. It's pretty well weighted across the rest of the quarters as inventory turns, but it's definitely lower in the first quarter.

好吧，我來談談對沖。您說得對；第一季的對沖影響是最低的。我不確定我是否會將其描述為第四季度最嚴重的一次。隨著庫存週轉，其餘季度的權重相當大，但第一季的權重肯定較低。

On the ethylene question, Jeff, for us, our bulk ethylene sales, it's better to think of them tracking spot than NTP.

關於乙烯問題，傑夫，對於我們來說，對於我們的散裝乙烯銷售來說，最好將其視為跟踪現貨而不是 NTP。

Okay. All right. Thank you so much.

好的。好的。太感謝了。

Frank Mitsch, Wells Fargo Securities.

弗蘭克米奇，富國銀行證券。

Good morning, gentlemen. I'm almost thinking about asking a question for Bob Patel since we are talking about ethylene so much, but, with that said, if, Mark, I gave you an Eastman Chemical without exposure to ethylene, how would you change the phrase, looking at 2016 versus 2015, how would you change the phrase driving hard to deliver 2016 EPS approaching 2015? Would you be confident in saying you'd meet and exceed or exceed? How would that change the dynamic of your guidance?

先生們，早安。由於我們談論乙烯的次數太多，我幾乎想問 Bob Patel 一個問題，但是，話雖如此，如果 Mark，我給你一家不接觸乙烯的 Eastman Chemical 公司，你會如何改變這個說法，看看 2016 年與 2015 年，你會如何改變這個說法，努力實現 2016 年每股收益接近 2015 年？您能自信地說您會達到並超越嗎？這將如何改變您的指導動態？

Frank, if you didn't have this olefins dynamic going on that we are going through right now, we'd have earnings growth this year over last year and be locking in our seventh consecutive year of earnings growth.

弗蘭克，如果沒有我們現在正在經歷的這種烯烴動態，我們今年的盈利將比去年有所增長，並連續第七年實現盈利增長。

Take that another step further. If you look at the quality of our operating earnings in our Company right now, it's substantially better. It's about $0.60 a share better if you strip out both the propane hedge and the currency hedge, which I think of as financial activity.

更進一步。如果你看一下我們公司目前的營業利潤質量，你會發現它已經好多了。如果剔除丙烷對沖和貨幣對沖，每股收益約為 0.60 美元，我認為這是金融活動。

So we'd have had -- and that would be the same number roughly applied to last year -- so we would have very strong earnings last year and very strong earnings this year relative to sort of what you are seeing because of this financial hedging. So that's why we are divesting the bulk ethylene and some of these other associated chemical intermediates is to get this volatility noise out of our story because the real story for Eastman is tremendous growth in specialties, tremendous innovation across a wide range of very attractive markets, a very consistent strategy in driving that.

因此，我們將會有 — — 這與去年的數字大致相同 — — 因此，由於這種金融對沖，我們去年的盈利會非常強勁，今年的盈利會非常強勁，相對於您所看到的情況而言。因此，我們要剝離大宗乙烯和一些其他相關化學中間體，以便從我們的故事中消除這種波動噪音，因為伊士曼的真正故事是專業領域的巨大增長、在廣泛的極具吸引力的市場中的巨大創新，以及推動這一增長的非常一致的戰略。

We fundamentally believe in the integration and the value it's created for us and are very happy to have our large integrated assets supporting our specialty, but for these intermediates and the bulk ethylene that we don't need for the specialty strategy, our objective, as it has been since 2013, is to get it out of our portfolio so we can focus on the great successes we are having in our specialties.

我們從根本上相信整合及其為我們創造的價值，並且非常高興擁有龐大的整合資產來支持我們的專業產品，但對於這些中間體和我們專業戰略不需要的大宗乙烯，我們的目標自 2013 年以來一直是將其從我們的產品組合中剔除，以便我們能夠專注於我們在專業領域取得的巨大成功。

And Mark, if I could add, another way to look at it, Frank, if you looked at it a couple of years ago, our excess ethylene contributed about 5% of our overall EBIT as a percentage of revenue. If you look at this year, it's probably going to contribute 11%, so that gives you an order of magnitude.

馬克，如果我可以補充一點，從另一個角度來看，弗蘭克，如果你幾年前看過，我們過量的乙烯貢獻了我們整體息稅前利潤的 5% 左右，佔收入的百分比。如果你看今年，它可能會貢獻 11%，所以這會給你一個數量級。

Okay. That's very helpful. And in terms of the disposals, the asset disposals you talked about, I'd love to ask about the potential timing, but having known Curt being in the CFO role for eight years, coming up on eight years, I know there is 0% chance he'd answer that with something that I could actually use.

好的。這非常有幫助。至於您談到的處置、資產處置，我很想詢問潛在的時機，但我知道 Curt 擔任財務長已經八年了，而且即將擔任八年，我知道他沒有可能用一些我真正需要的東西來回答這個問題。

So I will ask another question. You talked about significantly increasing your cost reduction efforts. Can you give us some color there or some quantification as to what's going on there, what are the mileposts, what did you achieve in Q1 and beyond besides the acquisition synergies?

因此我將提出另一個問題。您談到了大幅加大成本削減力道。您能否向我們詳細說明或量化那裡發生的事情，里程碑是什麼，除了收購協同效應之外，您在第一季及以後還取得了什麼成就？

Well, sure, Frank. I will answer that since -- I will answer both of your questions. First, look, what I'm going to answer -- you know what I'm going to say -- the timing of this effort is -- we are going to be a disciplined seller, but this is a priority for us, but I think it's going to take the greater part of this year to execute that transaction.

嗯，當然了，弗蘭克。我會回答這個問題，因為──我會回答你的兩個問題。首先，看，我要回答的是——你知道我要說什麼——這項努力的時機是——我們將成為一個有紀律的賣家，但這對我們來說是一個優先事項，但我認為我們將花費今年大部分時間來執行這筆交易。

As it relates to cost reduction, no, we are continuing the cost reduction program we discussed last quarter. It's a continued strong drive by our organization to see where we can eliminate waste, take out costs and drive our productivity. So we are making great progress towards our goal of $200 million of productivity gains, and we are going to remain confident that about $100 million of that will drop to the bottom line after we offset that growth spend and related projects and that normal inflation. So we are very much on track with what we started this year with.

至於成本削減，不，我們將繼續上個季度討論過的成本削減計劃。我們的組織持續大力推動消除浪費、降低成本並提高生產力。因此，我們在實現 2 億美元生產力成長的目標方面取得了巨大進展，我們仍然相信，在抵消成長支出和相關項目以及正常通貨膨脹之後，其中約 1 億美元將進入底線。因此，我們今年的計劃基本上按照計劃進行。

I think what we are trying to say is that the benefits of it are going to start showing up more in the second, third and fourth quarter relative to the first because headcount reductions didn't really complete until the end of February. So that's still flowing into COGS to flow out of inventory on the manufacturing side and obviously the [SG&A] will show up a little bit faster, but that's what we are trying to get at.

我想我們想說的是，它的好處將在第二、第三和第四季相對於第一季更加明顯，因為裁員直到二月底才真正完成。因此，這仍然會流入 COGS 以流出製造方面的庫存，顯然 [SG&A] 會出現得更快一些，但這正是我們想要實現的目標。

I see. All right. Thank you. That's helpful.

我懂了。好的。謝謝。這很有幫助。

Duffy Fischer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的達菲·菲舍爾。

Good morning. In your outlook statement, you guys added the phrase increasing competitive pressures. Can you walk through the three or four SBUs that are most impacted by that and in your mind, is that a structural change or is it just a cyclical change maybe around raw materials and some activity there?

早安.在你們的展望聲明中，你們加入了「競爭壓力不斷增加」這句話。能否介紹一下受此影響最大的三、四個策略事業單位 (SBU)？您認為，這是一個結構性變化，還是只是圍繞著原材料和一些活動的周期性變化？

It's a combination of those factors. So principally, we are seeing this in Chemical Intermediates and it's not surprising that you would see it in those kind of products and it's really a combination of the world's growing slowly. In particular, China is growing slowly and not consuming a lot of capacity that they've added for a variety of products that's hitting Chemical Intermediates. And so when you combine that excess capacity with a low oil environment in some other places, some weakening currencies, you can get competitors chasing volume with their improved cost structure. And basically that's what you are seeing.

這是這些因素的綜合作用。因此，原則上，我們在化學中間體中看到了這種情況，你在這類產品中看到這種情況並不奇怪，這實際上是世界緩慢增長的結合。尤其是中國，其成長緩慢，並未消耗大量新增產能，這些產能用於生產各種衝擊化學中間體的產品。因此，當你將過剩產能與其他一些地方的低油價環境、一些貨幣疲軟結合時，你會看到競爭對手利用改進的成本結構來追逐產量。基本上這就是您所看到的。

So you see some pressure in olefin-related products in Chemical Intermediates. You see some pressure in acetyls. So as methanol price gets low, that allows the Asians and particularly the Chinese to drop their acetic acid, acetic and hydride prices and you have to respond to that as that works its way across the world.

因此，您會看到化學中間體中的烯烴相關產品面臨一些壓力。您會看到乙醯基中存在一些壓力。因此，隨著甲醇價格走低，亞洲國家（尤其是中國）的醋酸、醋酸和氫化物價格也會隨之下降，你必須對此做出反應，因為這種影響會波及全球。

And even in alkylamines, we have some formula contracts that track methanol. We have a very advantaged methanol contract that goes into our cost structure. So just like our coal gasification or shale gas position, if our competitors have a lower methanol price, some of that price is going to come down, you're going to get a bit of a compression. So that's what you are seeing.

即使在烷基胺中，我們也有一些追蹤甲醇的配方合約。我們擁有非常有利的甲醇合同，這已納入我們的成本結構。因此，就像我們的煤氣化或頁岩氣地位一樣，如果我們的競爭對手的甲醇價格較低，那麼部分價格也會下降，你就會受到一些擠壓。這就是你所看到的。

I'd say added to that, there is some structural pressure in things like plasticizers. We've been talking about that since 2013 where the Koreans have been dumping their product all over the world since they can't get it into China anymore. So you see some pressure in a few products like that. And it's principally there. There's a few products that I already discussed in the prior question around Adds & Functional Products like adhesives, so I think I've already addressed that in AFP.

我想說，除此之外，塑化劑等物質還會帶來一些結構壓力。我們從 2013 年開始就一直在談論這個問題，因為韓國的產品無法再進入中國，所以他們開始向世界各地傾倒產品。因此，你會看到類似的一些產品面臨一些壓力。它主要就在那裡。我在上一個問題中已經討論過一些有關添加劑和功能性產品（如黏合劑）的產品，所以我認為我已經在 AFP 中討論過這個問題了。

Okay, great. Thanks. And then in tow, pretty divergent numbers between you and your biggest competitor. Now sometimes tow can be lumpy in any given quarter. Should we chalk it up to that, or is, again, there something structural going on there where maybe we will see continued large variances in the volume and pricing numbers between the two of you?

好的，太好了。謝謝。然後，你和你最大的競爭對手之間的數字就會有很大差異。現在，有時任何一個季度的拖曳情況都可能不平穩。我們是否應該將其歸結為這一點，或者，是否存在一些結構性因素，也許我們會看到你們兩家公司之間的交易量和定價數字繼續存在巨大差異？

No. I think the answer is two things. One is it is lumpy, so there are lumpy buying patterns so you have to be extremely careful about trying to overinterpret any quarter when you are comparing us to our tow peers. But there is also a difference that we've discussed in the past, which is we've been incredibly successful in having a very large share of imports into China that's allowed us to grow a lot of earnings and generate a lot of cash for shareholders in the past 10 years.

不。我認為答案有兩點。一是波動性較大，購買模式也不穩定，所以在將我們與同業進行比較時，必須格外小心，不要過度解讀任何季度的表現。但我們也曾討論過一個區別，那就是我們非常成功地在中國佔據了很大份額的進口商品，這讓我們在過去 10 年裡實現了大幅盈利，並為股東帶來了大量現金。

Of course, there is the flipside of that now when imports are dropping, we are going to feel the pressure of that more than our peers with the drop in imports in China. So I'd say right there that's sort of the key difference. On a global basis, I think our marketshares are very stable and we certainly have every intention of maintaining our position on a global basis from a share point of view.

當然，現在也有不利的一面，當進口下降時，我們將比同業感受到更大的壓力，因為中國的進口量正在下降。所以我想說這就是關鍵的區別。從全球範圍來看，我認為我們的市場份額非常穩定，而且從份額的角度來看，我們當然有意保持我們在全球範圍內的地位。

What I like about Eastman and our long-term future here is we have the lowest cost, largest scale, fully integrated back to coal flake and tow position for the world and we've got a great asset here in flake that allows us to support all of our assets both here, Korea and China. And because of that integration, because of the great value creation we get from our other cellulosic products in Adds & Functional Products and Advanced Materials, we also have more innovation capability than anyone else in keeping that integrated asset base running.

我喜歡伊士曼以及我們在這裡的長期前景，因為我們擁有世界上成本最低、規模最大、完全整合的煤片和煤拖帶地位，而且我們在煤片方面擁有巨大的資產，這使我們能夠支持我們在韓國和中國的所有資產。而且由於這種整合，由於我們從附加功能產品和先進材料中的其他纖維素產品中獲得了巨大的價值創造，我們在保持綜合資產基礎運轉方面也比任何人都擁有更強的創新能力。

So I'm very confident about our long-term position and we are committed to doing it. So we will see how it plays out, but I think we are the winner in the end of this game.

因此，我對我們的長期地位非常有信心，我們致力於做到這一點。所以我們將看看比賽結果如何，但我認為我們是這場比賽的最終贏家。

Great. Thanks, guys.

偉大的。謝謝大家。

Nils Wallin, CLSA.

里昂證券的尼爾斯·瓦林（Nils Wallin）。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. With respect to the sale of the olefins business, I'm curious as to how you are thinking about that in terms of potential tax leakage. I would assume that the olefins asset is pretty well depreciated and what your thoughts would be in terms of doing a spin as opposed to a sale?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。關於出售烯烴業務，我很好奇您是如何看待潛在的稅收流失的。我認為烯烴資產折舊得相當好，您認為進行旋轉而不是出售有什麼好處？

Well, what we are doing -- it's not only tax leakage, there are a lot of variety of factors we are looking at. We recognize the current market conditions with oil and olefins, but our belief is that any potential strategic buyer will understand the long-term value of olefins produced with these good quality assets and we will look at it that way. You know us. We have a talented team at Eastman that knows how to buy and sell businesses. So we will be disciplined on valuation and patient on timing if need be. And I already mentioned it is a priority.

嗯，我們正在做的事——不僅僅是稅收流失，我們還在考慮各種各樣的因素。我們認識到當前的石油和烯烴市場狀況，但我們相信任何潛在的策略性買家都會了解利用這些優質資產生產的烯烴的長期價值，我們也會以這種方式看待它。你了解我們。伊士曼擁有一支才華洋溢的團隊，他們知道如何買賣企業。因此，如果需要的話，我們將嚴格遵守估值，並在時機上保持耐心。我已經提到過，這是一個優先事項。

As it relates to a spin, that's a little tougher one because we are not quite sure this would be the scale of an asset that would really result in a value-creating spin, but we are open to all options. We are pretty flexible with the scope of the assets and the products involved, so we will just see how this all plays out and that's why I said earlier, this will probably take the greater part of this year to run this process.

因為它與分拆有關，所以這有點困難，因為我們不太確定這是否是真正導致創造價值的分拆的資產規模，但我們對所有選擇都持開放態度。我們對所涉及的資產和產品的範圍非常靈活，所以我們只會看看這一切如何進行，這就是我之前所說的，這可能需要今年大部分時間來完成這個過程。

Great. And then just kind of a follow-up in terms of the pricing. Obviously, there's been a lot of discussion around giving some price back to customers to share that value. Just thinking over the long term, over three to five years, what type of underlying price increase do you think you should be able to get for the innovation of your products in your portfolio?

偉大的。然後就定價方面進行跟進。顯然，關於將部分價格返還給客戶以分享這一價值的討論已經很多。只是從長遠來看，三到五年內，您認為您的產品組合創新應該能夠帶來什麼類型的潛在價格上漲？

I think that the innovation always commands a nice premium, especially if you've got a proprietary product like Tritan, like our next-gen acoustics and heads-up display products are going to come out and a variety of our cellulosics and other display products, so those are great. But even in the places where you do have some competitors, but we are still a dominant strong leader of that space, you've got to have some discipline about how you price relative to your competitors.

我認為創新總是會帶來不錯的溢價，特別是如果你擁有像 Tritan 這樣的專有產品，例如我們即將推出的下一代聲學和平視顯示產品，以及各種纖維素和其他顯示產品，所以這些都很棒。但即使在確實存在一些競爭對手的地方，我們仍然是該領域的主導者，你必須對相對於競爭對手的定價有一定的紀律。

I feel very confident about our ability to grow and value of mix, command very attractive margins. I think we have one of the strongest EBITDA margins in the industry and have every intention of keeping them stable as we go forward, leveraging our fixed costs as well as mix improvement.

我對我們的成長能力和組合價值以及獲得非常有吸引力的利潤率非常有信心。我認為我們的 EBITDA 利潤率是業內最高的之一，並且我們打算在未來的發展中保持其穩定，利用我們的固定成本以及組合改進。

So overall, I think we are on the right strategy. As I look beyond this year, we are clearly doing a lot of adjustments. When you have such significant changes in margin -- not margin, but in oil prices and currency, you are going to get margins flying up and down as you normalize around stable levels and you are going to see that stabilize. That's not unique to us; it's going to be true for any company connected to petrochemicals or a global business.

所以總的來說，我認為我們的策略是正確的。展望今年，我們顯然正在做很多調整。當利潤率發生如此重大的變化時——不是利潤率，而是油價和貨幣，利潤率將會上下波動，而當你在穩定水平附近恢復正常時，你會看到利潤率趨於穩定。這並不是我們獨有的；對於任何與石化產品或全球業務相關的公司來說都是如此。

But what I like is, as I look beyond this year, we've got a lot of great drivers to deliver growth going forward. So we've got the strong product mix and innovation. We've got the cost management that is going to continue to deliver great results. We will continue being very disciplined in the cost. We've got the hedges rolling off, so that $0.60 a share I mentioned earlier will come back to earnings over the next two years.

但我喜歡的是，展望今年以後，我們有許多偉大的驅動力來推動未來的成長。因此，我們擁有強大的產品組合和創新。我們擁有的成本管理將繼續帶來出色的成果。我們將繼續嚴格控製成本。我們已經完成了對沖，因此我之前提到的每股 0.60 美元將在未來兩年內恢復盈利。

Then you've got a very strong free cash flow that will continue to get better as we go from this year forward and that -- once the delevering is completed, you've got it repurchasing shares and increasing the dividend. So it all adds up. Obviously, there's a lot we can't control around the economy when it comes to how it's going to play out or oil and currency, but I like the fact that we have a lot in our control. The Company is very focused on innovation, very focused on customer engagement, which is the only way you get to innovate, and that's how we are going to deliver results for our owners.

然後你就會有非常強勁的自由現金流，從今年開始，這個自由現金流將會繼續好轉，而且一旦去槓桿完成，你就可以回購股票並增加股息。所以這一切都是合理的。顯然，在經濟、石油和貨幣等方面，我們無法控制很多事情，但我喜歡我們能夠控制很多事情。公司非常注重創新，非常注重客戶參與，這是實現創新的唯一途徑，也是我們為業主帶來成果的方式。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

James Sheehan, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

詹姆斯希恩 (James Sheehan)，SunTrust Robinson Humphrey。

Good morning. In your full-year outlook for down 5% earnings, how much of that is impact from currency, please?

早安.您預計全年獲利將下降 5%，其中有多少是受到貨幣影響？

When we look at the currency, it's a small percentage of that piece. I would guess -- well, currency is actually normalized if you think about this year versus last year. So I don't see currency as a major driver. You see some of it in the other income line item, so, for example, you see a good variation between this quarter versus last year; but as it relates to our gross margins, currency will not have a dramatic impact this year.

當我們看貨幣時，它只佔其中的一小部分。我猜——如果你比較一下今年和去年，你會發現貨幣其實已經正常化了。所以我不認為貨幣是主要驅動因素。您可以在其他收入項目中看到其中的一些，例如，您會看到本季與去年相比有很大差異；但由於它與我們的毛利率有關，因此今年的貨幣不會產生巨大影響。

On translation.

關於翻譯。

On translation.

關於翻譯。

Great. And your comments earlier on the tire market picking up, you've got more exposure to commercial vehicles there. Could you just give a little more color, are you seeing this only in commercial tires or is it across the passenger tire space as well?

偉大的。您之前提到輪胎市場正在回暖，這表明您對那裡的商用車有了更多的了解。您能否再詳細說明一下，您認為這種情況只出現在商用輪胎中，還是也出現在乘用輪胎領域？

No, it's across the market. We are seeing good recovery -- obviously, OEM growth rates are good on the auto side. The replacement business has been solid. The [TBR], the truck business, is where we really felt some significant destocking out of China last year, which seems to be getting behind us now. So we've seen particularly stronger improvement in demand in the first quarter in Asia for TBR, consistent with what I think you are seeing from some of the tire companies.

不，它位於市場對面。我們看到了良好的復甦——顯然，汽車方面的 OEM 增長率良好。替換業務一直很穩健。去年，我們確實感受到了卡車業務在中國庫存大幅減少的現象，但現在這種現像似乎已經過去了。因此，我們看到第一季亞洲對 TBR 的需求出現了特別強勁的增長，這與我認為您從一些輪胎公司看到的情況一致。

So overall, I'd say it feels really good. I wouldn't say it's going to be strong all year. I think some of this is a restocking event, but we certainly expect solid growth out of the tire industry this year.

所以總的來說，我覺得感覺非常好。我不會說它全年都會表現強勁。我認為這在一定程度上是一次補貨事件，但我們確實預計今年輪胎產業將穩健成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning. This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. You indicated that innovative new products, and that's a large part of the growth strategy. How many new products are we talking about aside from Tritan and acoustic interlayer? Just in terms of scale, what's the number?

早安.丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯。您指出，創新新產品是成長策略的重要組成部分。除了 Tritan 和聲學夾層之外，我們還在談論多少新產品？僅從規模來看，數字是多少？

That raises an interesting question about product numbers. There's a lot of people who talk about product introductions and you have to be very careful in how you compare it relative to our peers because you can count it in very different ways. I think about technology platforms that lead to many customer wins in many applications as opposed to talking about every individual customer application I win.

這就提出了一個關於產品編號的有趣問題。很多人都在談論產品介紹，你必須非常小心地將其與我們的同行進行比較，因為你可以用非常不同的方式來計算它。我考慮的是能夠在許多應用程式中贏得眾多客戶的技術平台，而不是談論我贏得的每個客戶應用程式。

And so we've got great platforms across Advanced Materials. We've got Tritan, as you've said. We've got a wide range of both cellulosic and some other technology products in the displays industry. As I mentioned, a whole portfolio of acoustic and heads-up display products and a next generation of performance films products. So basically everywhere we are, we are introducing new products in Advanced Materials.

因此，我們在先進材料領域擁有出色的平台。正如您所說，我們有 Tritan。我們在顯示器行業擁有廣泛的纖維素產品和其他一些技術產品。正如我所提到的，我們有一系列聲學和平視顯示產品以及下一代性能薄膜產品。因此，基本上我們在所有地方都推出了先進材料領域的新產品。

Adds & Functional Products, same thing. Tremendous success that we are now starting to see in our new polyester coating platform, which is taking the Tritan chemistry on into polyester coatings. That's a huge market when you look at the downstream market from auto to industrial to packaging, so a tremendous amount of opportunities and wins we'd expect there. Nice set of portfolios for next gen on coalescent products, the tire resins, next-gen Crystex products rolling out.

添加和功能產品，同樣的事情。我們現在開始看到我們的新聚酯塗層平台取得巨大成功，該平台將 Tritan 化學技術應用於聚酯塗層。如果從汽車到工業到包裝的下游市場來看，這是一個巨大的市場，因此我們預計那裡將有大量的機會和勝利。為下一代聚結產品、輪胎樹脂、下一代 Crystex 產品推出的一系列精美產品組合。

So everywhere you go where we are a leader in a specialty product, we have multi-generation product plans delivering sustainable growth and sustainable margins into the future. But we are not going to start throwing out individual product wins because I find those numbers not to make a lot of sense that I've seen in some other places.

因此，無論您身在何處，我們都是專業產品的領導者，我們擁有多代產品計劃，可在未來實現可持續增長和可持續利潤。但我們不會開始拋棄個別產品的勝利，因為我發現這些數字沒有太大意義，我在其他一些地方也看到過。

If I could add, Mark, I appreciate people's patience and let me go off script earlier because what I like about it is there are multiple innovation programs and we mentioned in the last call in January, we provided that slide where it would provide 1% to 2% of revenue growth above normal revenue growth from GDP because of just the different programs we have, the progress we are making and as we see the discipline and we go through stage gating, I'm convinced that we're going to see above-Company average margins come off that 1% to 2% revenue growth.

馬克，如果我可以補充一點，我很感謝大家的耐心，讓我早點脫離腳本，因為我喜歡它的地方在於它有多個創新計劃，我們在 1 月份的上次電話會議上提到，我們提供了一張幻燈片，它將提供高於 GDP 正常收入增長 1% 到 2% 的收入增長，這僅僅是因為我們擁有的不同計劃，我們正在看到一切的利潤1% 到 2% 的收入成長。

I can tell you we have 1500 wins, but what does that mean? What it means is tangible results and earnings coming from programs that you can see as we move forward.

我可以告訴你我們取得了 1500 場勝利，但這意味著什麼？這意味著隨著我們不斷前進，您可以看到專案帶來的實際成果和收益。

All right. That was helpful. Thank you very much.

好的。這很有幫助。非常感謝。

Let's make the next question our last one, please.

下一個問題是我們的最後一個問題。

Mike Sison, KeyBanc.

KeyBanc 的 Mike Sison。

Hey, guys. Nice start to the year. Mark, I wanted to gauge your sentiment from your guidance from the last quarter into this quarter. Your specialty business seemed to becoming a little bit better, so are you effectively saying that your specialty businesses are doing better in terms of parts of your guidance for this year? And then your tougher businesses, like fibers and chemical, is doing worse?

嘿，大家好。今年的開始很好。馬克，我想根據你對上個季度到本季的指導來了解你的看法。您的專業業務似乎變得有點好轉，那麼您實際上是在說，就今年的部分指導而言，您的專業業務做得更好了嗎？那麼，你們那些比較艱難的業務，像是纖維和化學品，情況就更糟了嗎？

Mike, I think that's directionally correct. So certainly Advanced Materials doing better than we expected, delivering great growth the way you want to do it through volume and mix. I would say Adds & Functional Products is coming in as expected, so no surprises there, sort of solid volume growth. Prices coming off a bit from last year as we knew that would occur. Fiber is coming in as we expected, maybe slightly lower than where I thought in January, but not materially. And then, yes, the challenge sits in Chemical Intermediates with all the dynamics we've discussed.

麥克，我認為這個方向是正確的。因此，先進材料的表現肯定比我們預期的要好，透過產量和產品組合實現了巨大的成長。我想說的是，Adds & Functional Products 的銷量正如預期的那樣，沒有什麼意外，銷量穩步增長。由於我們知道這種情況會發生，所以價格比去年略有下降。光纖的進入正如我們預期的那樣，可能比我在一月份預想的略低一些，但幅度並不大。是的，挑戰在於化學中間體以及我們已經討論過的所有動態。

Okay. And then a quick follow-up. Advanced Materials, operating income is up a little over 40% on 9% volume. Is that the right -- is that the ballpark we should think about when we leverage volume through that business for the rest of the year?

好的。然後進行快速跟進。先進材料業務的營業收入成長了 40% 多一點，銷量成長了 9%。這是正確的嗎？這是我們在今年剩餘時間內透過該業務來提高銷量時應該考慮的大致範圍嗎？

I wouldn't take the first-quarter year-over-year improvement and apply it to the rest of the year. That would be impressive, but too much. Basically it's the opposite of last year. Last year, we had a lot of destocking going on in the first quarter as people were trying to hold out for better prices, so volume wasn't that strong. And then we had both the costs finally start flowing through the reduced oil benefits last year into the second quarter, as well as those very strong volumes second quarter.

我不會將第一季的年成長應用到今年剩餘時間。這確實令人印象深刻，但太多了。基本上與去年相反。去年第一季度，我們進行了大量的去庫存化，因為人們試圖等待更好的價格，所以交易量不是那麼強勁。然後，我們的成本最終開始透過去年減少的石油收益流入第二季度，同時也帶來了第二季度非常強勁的銷售。

When you look at this second quarter, it's still going to be a strong sequential improvement versus first quarter, but not quite as strong on a year-over-year basis for the reasons I just said. So overall, I think you should expect a very good year for Advanced Materials. They are delivering a lot of strong earnings growth. Probably not quite as strong as last year on a 2014 to 2015 basis, but still a very, very good year.

當你看第二季度時，與第一季相比，它仍將有一個強勁的環比改善，但由於我剛才提到的原因，與去年同期相比，它的表現並不那麼強勁。所以總的來說，我認為先進材料產業今年將會表現得非常好。他們實現了強勁的獲利成長。與 2014 年至 2015 年相比，可能不如去年那麼強勁，但仍然是非常好的一年。

Mike, what I would add is, if you look at their operating margins last year, 17%. They have 18% in the first quarter. That's the kind of margins we knew this business could achieve given its strategy around volume, mix and fixed cost leverage, and quite honestly, it deserves given the level of investments we've made. So it's in the right place its operating margins should be.

麥克，我想補充的是，如果你看看他們去年的營業利潤率，是 17%。他們在第一季的佔比為 18%。我們知道，考慮到該企業圍繞產量、產品組合和固定成本槓桿的策略，該企業可以實現這樣的利潤率，坦白說，考慮到我們所做的投資水平，該企業值得實現這樣的利潤率。因此，它的營業利潤率處於正確的水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Mike. And thanks, again, everyone for joining us this morning. A Web replay and a replay in downloadable MP3 format will be available on our website later this morning. I hope you have a great day.

謝謝你，麥克。再次感謝大家今天早上的參加。今天上午晚些時候，我們的網站將提供網路重播和可下載的 MP3 格式重播。祝您有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。