雅詩蘭黛 (EL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Estée Lauder Company's Fiscal 2023 Second Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and webcast.

大家好，歡迎參加雅詩蘭黛公司 2023 財年第二季度電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音和網絡直播中。

For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Rainey Mancini.

關於開場白和介紹，我想把電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Rainey Mancini 女士。

Hello. On today's call are Fabrizio Freda, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Travis, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

你好。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官 Fabrizio Freda；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tracey Travis。

Since many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements, let me refer you to our press release and our reports filed with the SEC where you'll find factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

由於我們今天的許多評論都包含前瞻性陳述，請允許我向您推薦我們的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告，您會在其中找到可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。

To facilitate the discussion of our underlying business, the commentary on our financial results and expectations is before restructuring and other charges and adjustments disclosed in our press release. Unless otherwise stated, all organic net sales growth also excludes the noncomparable impacts of acquisitions, divestitures, brand closures and the impact of foreign currency translation. You can find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on the Investors section of our website.

為了便於討論我們的基礎業務，對我們財務業績和預期的評論是在我們的新聞稿中披露的重組和其他費用和調整之前。除非另有說明，否則所有有機淨銷售額增長也不包括收購、資產剝離、品牌關閉和外幣換算的影響。您可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者部分找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施之間的調節。

As a reminder, references to online sales include sales we make directly to our consumers through our brand.com sites and through third-party platforms. It also includes estimated sales of our products through our retailers' websites. (Operator Instructions)

提醒一下，提及的在線銷售包括我們通過我們的 brand.com 網站和第三方平台直接向消費者進行的銷售。它還包括我們的產品通過我們零售商網站的預估銷售額。 （操作員說明）

And now I'll turn the call over to Fabrizio.

現在我將把電話轉給 Fabrizio。

Thank you, Rainey, and hello to everyone. It is good to be with you today.

謝謝你，Rainey，向大家問好。今天很高興和你在一起。

Turning to results. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2023, organic sales fell 11%, which was within our outlook despite the incremental pressure of COVID-19 resurgence in China. Many developed an emerging markets globally outperformed our expectations to offset the COVID-related impacts of significantly reduced retail traffic as well as limited staffing in beauty adviser in domestic China and travel retail in Hainan in November and December.

轉向結果。對於 2023 財年第二季度，有機銷售額下降了 11%，儘管 COVID-19 在中國捲土重來的壓力越來越大，但仍處於我們的預期之內。 11 月和 12 月，全球許多發達新興市場的表現超出了我們的預期，抵消了零售流量大幅減少以及中國國內美容顧問和海南旅遊零售人員有限的 COVID 相關影響。

Adjusted EPS fell 49%. While a steep decline, this was meaningfully better than our outlook, driven by both disciplined expense management and moderation of the stronger U.S. dollars. Importantly, we continue to prudently invest for growth, launching sought-after innovation and A&P as a percentage of sales.

調整後的每股收益下降了 49%。雖然急劇下降，但由於嚴格的費用管理和美元走強的放緩，這明顯好於我們的預期。重要的是，我們繼續審慎地投資於增長，推出廣受歡迎的創新和 A&P 佔銷售額的百分比。

For fiscal year 2023, we are lowering our outlook for organic sales growth and adjusted diluted EPS primarily for 2 reasons. First, inventory levels in Hainan remains somewhat more elevated than we expected due to the disruptions in travel and in-store staffing levels in November and December.

對於 2023 財年，我們主要出於兩個原因降低了有機銷售增長的預期並調整了攤薄每股收益。首先，由於 11 月和 12 月的旅行中斷和店內人員配備水平，海南的庫存水平仍高於我們的預期。

Second, the recently announced potential rollback of COVID-related supportive measures in Korea duty free are creating a near-term transitory pressure to our business with our Korea duty free retailers. In the third quarter, it is more than offsetting the initial positive impact from the resumption of international travel by Chinese consumers as well as favorable trends in our second quarter, including outstanding performance across many developed markets in Western Europe and Asia Pacific as well as many emerging markets globally and a better-than-expected currency environment.

其次，韓國免稅店最近宣布可能取消與 COVID 相關的支持措施，這對我們與韓國免稅店零售商的業務造成了短期的暫時壓力。第三季度，這遠遠抵消了中國消費者恢復國際旅行的初步積極影響以及我們第二季度的有利趨勢，包括在西歐和亞太地區的許多發達市場以及許多全球新興市場和好於預期的貨幣環境。

All told, our return to growth has shifted from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, which Tracey will discuss in greater detail. We remain focused on investing in our brands, including for innovation, advertising, strategic entry into new countries and expanded consumer reach to fuel our multiple engines of growth strategy. Our growth engines in the second quarter were many among categories, regions and channels, and we anticipate the gradual return of more growth engines across the second half of fiscal year 2023.

總而言之，我們的增長回歸已從第三季度轉移到第四季度，Tracey 將對此進行更詳細的討論。我們仍然專注於投資我們的品牌，包括創新、廣告、戰略進入新國家和擴大消費者覆蓋面，以推動我們的增長戰略的多個引擎。我們第二季度的增長引擎在品類、地區和渠道中有很多，我們預計更多增長引擎將在 2023 財年下半年逐步回歸。

Beginning with categories. Fragrance extended its long-running double-digit organic sales growth streak in the second quarter, rising 12%. We are inspired by the growth prospects still ahead for the luxury and artisanal segment of the category as consumer pulse a unique, distinct and long-lasting scents of the highest quality. Many, today, consumers seek to build an occasion-based collection to express oneself differently across seasons, time of the day or events. Our portfolios are Jo Malone London, Tom Ford Beauty, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS. Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle is ideally positioned for this accelerating fundamental shift.

從類別開始。香水在第二季度延續了其長期保持的兩位數有機銷售增長勢頭，增長了 12%。隨著消費者對獨特、獨特和持久的最高品質香味的衝動，該類別的奢侈品和手工藝品領域的增長前景仍然鼓舞著我們。如今，許多消費者尋求建立一個基於場合的系列，以在不同的季節、一天中的時間或事件中以不同的方式表達自己。我們的產品組合包括 Jo Malone London、Tom Ford Beauty、Le Labo、KILIAN PARIS。 Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle 完美地適應了這一加速的根本轉變。

As demand increases globally, we are excited about our plans to bring these brands to new markets and channels in the coming quarters. Innovation, we'd also continue to be a key growth pillar. For example, Tom Ford Beauty outstanding loans or Noir Extreme Parfum in the first half will be followed by the cherry collection in the second half, building on the success of regional hero Lost Cherry.

隨著全球需求的增加，我們很高興我們計劃在未來幾個季度將這些品牌引入新的市場和渠道。創新，我們也將繼續成為關鍵的增長支柱。例如，上半年的 Tom Ford Beauty 未償還貸款或 Noir Extreme Parfum 將在下半年推出櫻桃系列，以區域英雄 Lost Cherry 的成功為基礎。

Makeup grew organically in the Americas as well as in the domestic markets in EMEA in across Southeast Asia in the second quarter. Our brands are indeed realized in the promise of the category renaissance as professional and personal use education resume and accelerate with on-point innovation, alluring marketing campaigns on new platforms and best-in-class artistry.

第二季度，化妝品在美洲以及東南亞 EMEA 的國內市場實現了有機增長。隨著專業和個人使用教育的恢復和加速，我們的品牌確實實現了類別復興的承諾，新平台上的誘人營銷活動和一流的藝術性。

MAC was a standout success. The brand growth engines were many, freestanding doors excelled, welcoming consumers with expert services delivering double-digit organic sales growth globally. Across channels, Blockbuster innovation, hero products and Holiday merchandise proved highly so.

MAC 取得了巨大的成功。品牌增長引擎很多，獨立門表現出色，以專業服務迎接消費者，在全球實現兩位數的有機銷售增長。在各個渠道中，百視達創新、英雄產品和假日商品都證明了這一點。

Clinique further fueled makeup across subcategories led by lipstick as the brand has created a hero franchise with crowd's favorite Almost Lipstick in Black Honey. Estée Lauder Double Wear foundation had exceptional success with its My Shade, My Story campaign in Western Europe. Virality on TikTok drove strong new consumer acquisition, and the franchise strengthened its #1 ranking foundation with prestige beauty share gains.

倩碧 (Clinique) 進一步推動了以口紅為首的各個子類別的彩妝業務，因為該品牌憑藉大眾最喜愛的黑蜂蜜幾乎唇膏 (Almost Lipstick in Black Honey) 創造了英雄系列。雅詩蘭黛 Double Wear 基金會在西歐開展的 My Shade, My Story 活動取得了非凡的成功。 TikTok 上的病毒式傳播推動了強勁的新消費者收購，該特許經營權憑藉美妝產品份額的增長鞏固了其排名第一的基礎。

Looking ahead, we are excited for the launch of Estée Lauder Pure Color lipstick in the second half. The brand reinvented its iconic franchise to capitalize on lipstick revival and integrate skin care benefits for lips. Designed to flatter all skin tones across matte cream and luster finishes, the line packaging pays homage to the brand original lipstick from the 1960s.

展望未來，我們對雅詩蘭黛 Pure Color 口紅在下半年的推出感到興奮。該品牌重塑了其標誌性特許經營權，以利用唇膏復興並整合唇部護膚功效。該系列包裝旨在通過啞光奶油色和光澤飾面來襯託所有膚色，向品牌 1960 年代的原創唇膏致敬。

In hair care, our brands extended the category organic sales growth streak to 8 consecutive quarters. For the second half, Aveda, launched last July in Mainland China, will be complemented by the brand recent entry into travel retail in Hainan as we continue investing for the vibrant growth opportunity of prestige hair care with the Chinese consumers. Moreover, Aveda became a certified B Corporation, joining Le Labo in our portfolio in achieving these important third-party validation as the brand deepened its decades-long commitment to social and environmental responsibility.

在護髮產品方面，我們的品牌連續 8 個季度實現有機銷售額連續增長。下半年，Aveda 於去年 7 月在中國大陸推出，該品牌最近進入海南旅遊零售市場，我們將繼續投資於中國消費者享有盛譽的護髮產品這一充滿活力的增長機會。此外，隨著該品牌深化其長達數十年的社會和環境責任承諾，Aveda 成為一家經過認證的共益企業，與 Le Labo 一起實現了這些重要的第三方驗證。

Skin Care organic sales fell sharply in the second quarter. There were a few headwinds, with the biggest challenge being COVID-19 in travel retail in Asia and with the Chinese consumer, given the category's exposure. Amidst the top landscape for skin care, the ordinary was a striking success. Its organic sales growth accelerated from high single digit in the first quarter to strong double digits in the second quarter. The brand hero product excelled as did the Blockbuster innovation of Multi-Peptide Lash and Brow Serum, while the ordinary also realized outstanding performance in the specialty multichannel gain momentum for its exciting launch in India in the fourth quarter of last year. We are focused on returning skin care to growth globally with sequentially improving trends from the third quarter to the fourth quarter as a transitory pressure from travel retail [abate].

護膚品有機銷售額在第二季度大幅下滑。有一些不利因素，考慮到該類別的曝光率，最大的挑戰是亞洲旅遊零售業和中國消費者面臨的 COVID-19。在頂級護膚品中，平凡卻取得了驚人的成功。其有機銷售增長從第一季度的高個位數加速到第二季度的強勁兩位數。該品牌的主打產品與 Blockbuster 創新的 Multi-Peptide Lash 和 Brow Serum 一樣出色，而普通產品也因其去年第四季度在印度的激動人心的推出而在專業多渠道增益勢頭中實現了出色的表現。我們專注於在全球範圍內恢復皮膚護理的增長，並從第三季度到第四季度逐步改善趨勢，這是來自旅遊零售業的暫時壓力[減弱]。

To that end, we have an incredibly rich innovation pipeline primed to launch. Here, a few among them. Already out from MAC is its new Hyper Real franchise as the brand leverage its expertise to create an artistry-approved skin care line of products, which are purposely designed to perform also with makeup. La Mer revamped moisturizing soft cream arrived this month with powerful new clinical results to reverse and receive visible signs of aging.

為此，我們準備推出極其豐富的創新管道。在這裡，其中一些。 MAC 已經推出了其新的 Hyper Real 特許經營權，因為該品牌利用其專業知識創造了經過藝術認可的護膚系列產品，這些產品專門設計用於化妝。 La Mer 改良保濕軟霜本月面世，具有強大的新臨床效果，可逆轉並消除明顯的衰老跡象。

Thereafter, Clinique will bring Moisture Surge SPF to market, extending its popular hero product to meet consumer desire for hydration and some protection with a lightweight texture that has made Moisture Surge 100H in Icon. With these launches, we aim to reach new consumers demographic tapped into high-growth subsegment.

此後，倩碧將 Moisture Surge SPF 推向市場，擴展其廣受歡迎的主打產品以滿足消費者對補水和保護的需求，輕盈的質地令 Moisture Surge 100H 成為 Icon 中的佼佼者。通過這些發布，我們的目標是接觸到進入高增長細分市場的新消費者群體。

Let me now turn to geographies. While the U.S. and domestic China were challenged in the second quarter with sales falling single digit organically in each market, we believe both will be growth engines in the second half. For the U.S., we are optimistic for a return to growth given sequentially improving monthly trend in each of organic sales and retail sales performance throughout the second quarter. Building on this momentum, the market is equipped with numerous growth drivers, including an exceptional innovation pipeline across brands roll out to new Clinique counters to select doors after a successful pilot of Clinique lab in Macy's Herald Square and launch of exclusive products by many brands in specialty-multi.

現在讓我談談地理。儘管美國和中國國內在第二季度都面臨挑戰，每個市場的銷售額都有機地下降個位數，但我們相信這兩個市場都將成為下半年的增長引擎。對於美國，我們對恢復增長持樂觀態度，因為整個第二季度每個有機銷售和零售銷售業績的月度趨勢都在連續改善。在此勢頭的基礎上，市場擁有眾多增長動力，包括在梅西百貨先驅廣場的倩碧實驗室成功試點以及許多品牌在專業多。

We are also progressively modernizing numerous freestanding store as they are primed to be an important contributor to growth following rationalization of the footprint. Moreover, our enhanced omnichannel capabilities are also primed to contribute to growth in the U.S. as consumers who engage with our brands online and in store drive consistently higher value from upsell and cross-sell. This was especially true during holidays in the second quarter.

我們還逐步對眾多獨立商店進行現代化改造，因為它們將在足跡合理化後成為增長的重要貢獻者。此外，我們增強的全渠道能力也準備好為美國的增長做出貢獻，因為在線和店內與我們品牌互動的消費者通過追加銷售和交叉銷售不斷推動更高的價值。在第二季度的假期期間尤其如此。

For domestic China, we are confident in a vibrant recovery for our business following the relaxing of COVID restriction, as the economy is well positioned to rebound and Chinese consumers are passionate for prestige beauty. We entered this phase with momentum having expanded our market share of prestige beauty in China during the second quarter, driven by gains on all of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care demonstrating the desirability of our aspirational brand portfolio and the excellent go-to-market strategies of our local team.

對於中國國內，我們有信心在放寬 COVID 限制後，我們的業務將充滿活力地複蘇，因為經濟已經做好了反彈的準備，而且中國消費者對高端美容充滿熱情。我們進入這一階段的勢頭在第二季度擴大了我們在中國高端美容市場的份額，這得益於所有護膚、彩妝、香水和護髮產品的增長，這表明我們理想的品牌組合和出色的首選-我們當地團隊的市場策略。

While the third quarter is set to be more variable because of the high level of COVID cases, we now anticipate even stronger organic sales growth as of the fourth quarter as recovery evolves. We expect online to continue its strengths and anticipate a gradual return to more fulsome brick-and-mortar traffic by the end of the fiscal year.

雖然第三季度因 COVID 病例數量較多而變得更加多變，但我們現在預計，隨著復甦的進展，第四季度的有機銷售增長將更加強勁。我們預計在線業務將繼續發揮其優勢，並預計到本財年末將逐漸恢復到更加繁忙的實體業務。

Online organic sales rose single digit in the second quarter, fueled by many brands led by La Mer double-digit growth. We achieved excellent results for 11.11 as the Estée Lauder brand realized top ranks across platforms. Moreover, our retail sales growth in online channel meaningfully outpaced the industry in the quarter for strong prestige beauty share gains.

在以 La Mer 兩位數增長為首的許多品牌的推動下，第二季度在線有機銷售額增長個位數。 11.11我們取得了優異的成績，雅詩蘭黛品牌實現了跨平台排名第一。此外，本季度我們在線渠道的零售額增長顯著超過行業，聲望美妝市場份額增長強勁。

Beyond the U.S. and China, we realized outstanding organic sales growth in many large developed and emerging markets around the world. Our local team has been executing with excellence to deliver broad-based sales gains. Western Europe, led by the U.K., prospered while Japan and Australia contributed strongly in Asia Pacific. India, Brazil, Turkey and Malaysia are among the stars of our emerging markets, with each posting strong double-digit organic sales growth led by India rising nearly 50%.

除了美國和中國，我們在全球許多大型發達市場和新興市場實現了出色的有機銷售增長。我們當地的團隊一直以卓越的表現來實現廣泛的銷售收益。以英國為首的西歐經濟蓬勃發展，而日本和澳大利亞則在亞太地區做出了巨大貢獻。印度、巴西、土耳其和馬來西亞是我們新興市場的明星，每個國家都實現了強勁的兩位數有機銷售額增長，其中印度增長近 50%。

We are very encouraged with the excellent performance we are delivering in emerging markets. As these emerging markets evolve in recovery from the pandemic, we foresee compelling long-term growth opportunity arising from the expanding middle class trading up into prestige beauty. We entered this important phase of recovery from a position of strength as we hold leading prestige beauty share in many of these markets. For example, in India, Mexico, South Africa, we are the #1 ranked company in both prestige makeup and skin care while we lead in prestige makeup in Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey.

我們對新興市場的出色表現感到非常鼓舞。隨著這些新興市場從大流行中復蘇，我們預見到不斷擴大的中產階級交易到高端美容產品將帶來引人注目的長期增長機會。我們從強勢地位進入了這個重要的複蘇階段，因為我們在許多這些市場中擁有領先的聲望美容份額。例如，在印度、墨西哥、南非，我們在高端彩妝和護膚品領域排名第一，而在馬來西亞、泰國和土耳其，我們在高端彩妝領域處於領先地位。

Let me now turn to the strategic deal we announced in November to acquire Tom Ford. This transformational luxury acquisition will make Tom Ford an own brand of Estée Lauder Companies, enabling us to manage the brand's intellectual property and equity. Staying true to our focus as a pure play in prestige beauty. We have also reached agreements with luxury companies, Zegna Group and Marcolin to license the brand fashion and eyewear businesses, respectively.

現在讓我談談我們在 11 月宣布的收購 Tom Ford 的戰略交易。這一轉型性的奢侈品收購將使 Tom Ford 成為雅詩蘭黛公司的自有品牌，使我們能夠管理該品牌的知識產權和股權。堅持我們的重點，作為純粹的聲望美容遊戲。我們還與奢侈品公司 Zegna Group 和 Marcolin 達成協議，分別授權品牌時裝和眼鏡業務。

We first partnered with Tom Ford over 15 years ago, and its singular vision on model luxury is beyond compare. Together, we have elevated Tom Ford Beauty into the top echelon of high-growth luxury beauty impressively. Tom Ford Beauty is expected to achieve $1 billion in net sales annually over the next couple of years, and we are promising profitable growth opportunities ahead.

我們在 15 多年前首次與 Tom Ford 合作，其對豪華車型的獨特見解是無與倫比的。我們共同將 Tom Ford Beauty 提升為高增長奢侈美妝的頂級品牌，令人印象深刻。 Tom Ford Beauty 預計在未來幾年內每年實現 10 億美元的淨銷售額，我們承諾未來的盈利增長機會。

Before I close, I want to recognize the start of Black History Month in the U.S. and thank our employees to have created an engaging calendar of events for colleagues and consumers to celebrate and honor the Black experience. while we continue to focus on accelerating our commitment to racial equity and the collective accomplishment of our equity goals year-round.

在我結束之前，我想承認美國黑人歷史月的開始，並感謝我們的員工為同事和消費者創建了一個引人入勝的活動日曆，以慶祝和紀念黑人經歷。同時，我們繼續專注於加速我們對種族平等的承諾，並全年共同實現我們的平等目標。

In closing, while we are lowering our fiscal year 2023 outlook to reflect the additional transitory pressures affecting our travel retail business, we are encouraged by both the strong underlying trends in many other areas of our business and improving macro trends. Inflation has stabilized in many markets globally. The strength of the U.S. dollar has moderated. And the return to mobility of the Chinese consumer, both domestically and international travel, is happening earlier than expected.

最後，雖然我們下調了 2023 財年展望以反映影響我們旅遊零售業務的額外暫時性壓力，但我們對許多其他業務領域的強勁潛在趨勢和不斷改善的宏觀趨勢感到鼓舞。全球許多市場的通脹已經穩定。美元的強勢有所緩和。中國消費者在國內和國際旅行中恢復流動性的時間比預期的要早。

Moreover, in the first half of fiscal year 2023, we made exciting progress on several strategic initiatives to drive growth and resiliency in our business. We significantly strengthened our capabilities in innovation, manufacturing and distribution having opened the China innovation labs our first plant in Asia Pacific, our new D.C. in China, while we also announced our brand portfolio with Tom Ford and BALMAIN BEAUTY.

此外，在 2023 財年上半年，我們在多項戰略舉措上取得了令人振奮的進展，以推動我們業務的增長和彈性。我們顯著加強了我們在創新、製造和分銷方面的能力，開設了我們在亞太地區的第一家工廠中國創新實驗室，這是我們在中國的新 D.C.，同時我們還宣布了與 Tom Ford 和 BALMAIN BEAUTY 的品牌組合。

All told, we have great confidence that we will emerge from this volatile transitional year, even better positioned to realize the long-term growth opportunity of global prestige beauty. To our employees, our future is bright because of your creativity, passion and wisdom. I extend my deepest gratitude for your significant contribution to our long-term success.

總而言之，我們非常有信心，我們將走出這個動蕩的過渡年，甚至更好地把握全球知名美容的長期增長機會。對於我們的員工，我們的未來因您的創造力、熱情和智慧而一片光明。我對您為我們的長期成功做出的重大貢獻表示最深切的感謝。

And now I turn the call over to Tracey.

現在我把電話轉給特蕾西。

Thank you, Fabrizio, and hello, everyone. As Fabrizio mentioned, our business in the second quarter continued to be pressured by the external headwinds of COVID-related impacts, including the rising number of COVID cases in China, lower shipments of replenishment orders in the U.S. and the stronger U.S. dollar.

謝謝你，Fabrizio，大家好。正如 Fabrizio 所說，我們第二季度的業務繼續受到 COVID 相關影響的外部不利因素的壓力，包括中國 COVID 病例數增加、美國補貨訂單出貨量減少以及美元走強。

Our second quarter organic net sales declined 11%, and earnings per share decreased 49% to $1.54. Tighter expense management and a slightly improved currency impact contributed to our better-than-expected EPS results. From a geographic standpoint, organic net sales in the Americas declined 3%. We saw healthy demand for our holiday offerings as consumers gravitated to our in-store and online promotions. However, we also experienced lower shipments of replenishment orders due to both retailer inventory tightening as we anticipated and a later improvement in retail trends post Christmas.

我們第二季度的有機淨銷售額下降了 11%，每股收益下降了 49% 至 1.54 美元。更嚴格的費用管理和略微改善的貨幣影響促成了我們好於預期的每股收益結果。從地域的角度來看，美洲的有機淨銷售額下降了 3%。隨著消費者被我們的店內和在線促銷活動所吸引，我們看到了對我們假期產品的健康需求。然而，由於我們預期的零售商庫存收緊以及聖誕節後零售趨勢的改善，我們的補貨訂單出貨量也有所下降。

In Latin America, organic net sales rose double digits, reflecting continued growth in nearly all markets, the evolution of recovery and makeup as consumers return to stores and the strength of our fragrance portfolio.

在拉丁美洲，有機淨銷售額增長了兩位數，這反映了幾乎所有市場的持續增長、隨著消費者重返商店而恢復和彩妝的演變以及我們香水產品組合的實力。

Organic net sales in our Europe, the Middle East and Africa region declined 17%, including the negative impact from foreign currency transactions and key international travel retail locations of 3%. The decline was driven by travel retail as expected, while growth from nearly every market in the rest of the region was strong.

我們歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機淨銷售額下降了 17%，其中包括外幣交易和主要國際旅遊零售地點 3% 的負面影響。正如預期的那樣，下降是由旅遊零售推動的，而該地區其他地區幾乎每個市場的增長都很強勁。

Our global travel retail sales were significantly pressured by the ongoing COVID-related impacts. Despite stores being opened throughout the quarter, travel to Hainan remain largely curtailed, and as a result, shipments of replenishment inventory remained low.

我們的全球旅遊零售銷售受到持續的 COVID 相關影響的巨大壓力。儘管整個季度都在開店，但前往海南的旅行仍然在很大程度上受到限制，因此補貨庫存的出貨量仍然很低。

Elsewhere, we experienced strong sales growth in travel retail, reflecting increased international tourism as travel restrictions in many countries lifted from the prior year. The ongoing pressures in Asia travel retail more than offset the growth we experienced in the rest of the EMEA region, including both developed and emerging markets such as the United Kingdom, France, India and Turkey. We continue to see various stages of recovery across the region that coupled with the strong resumption of tourism fueled brick-and-mortar growth during the quarter.

在其他方面，我們的旅遊零售銷售增長強勁，反映出隨著許多國家的旅行限制較上一年解除，國際旅遊業有所增加。亞洲旅遊零售業的持續壓力抵消了我們在歐洲、中東和非洲其他地區的增長，包括英國、法國、印度和土耳其等發達市場和新興市場。我們繼續看到該地區處於不同的複蘇階段，加上旅遊業的強勁復甦推動了本季度實體店的增長。

Organic net sales in our Asia Pacific region fell 7%, primarily due to the ongoing COVID-related impacts in Greater China. This affected brick-and-mortar sales in Greater China and Dr. Jart+ travel retail in Korea.

我們亞太地區的有機淨銷售額下降了 7%，這主要是由於大中華區持續的 COVID 相關影響。這影響了大中華區的實體店銷售和韓國的 Dr. Jart+ 旅遊零售。

Online sales continued to grow in Mainland China due in part to the expansion of our online presence with the recent launches on JD and Douyin as well as solid performance during the 11.11 Shopping Festival. Most of the other markets in the region continued to progress in recovery as the return of brick-and-mortar traffic led to high single-digit or double-digit growth in Japan, Australia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

中國大陸的在線銷售額繼續增長，部分原因是我們通過最近在京東和抖音上的推出擴大了我們的在線業務，以及在 11.11 購物節期間的穩健表現。隨著實體交通的回歸導致日本、澳大利亞、馬來西亞和菲律賓的高個位數或兩位數增長，該地區的大多數其他市場繼續在復蘇中取得進展。

From a category standpoint, fragrance continued to lead growth with organic net sales rising 12%. Strong holiday demand for our beautiful line of fragrances from Estée Lauder and double-digit growth from both Le Labo and Tom Ford Beauty propelled the category's growth in every region during the quarter.

從類別的角度來看，香水繼續引領增長，有機淨銷售額增長 12%。節日期間對雅詩蘭黛美麗香水系列的強勁需求以及 Le Labo 和 Tom Ford Beauty 的兩位數增長推動了該類別在本季度每個地區的增長。

Organic net sales in hair care rose 4% and declined 3% in makeup, the latter driven primarily by the COVID restrictions in China as solid performance from both MAC and Clinique drove growth in both the Americas and in domestic markets in EMEA.

護髮產品的有機淨銷售額增長了 4%，而化妝品產品的淨銷售額下降了 3%，後者主要受中國 COVID 限制的推動，因為 MAC 和倩碧的強勁表現推動了美洲和 EMEA 國內市場的增長。

Organic net sales in skin care declined 20%. This category continues to be the most affected by the COVID restrictions in China, particularly in Asia travel retail and Mainland China where skin care accounts for a large majority of our business.

護膚品的有機淨銷售額下降了 20%。這一類別在中國仍然是受 COVID 限制影響最大的，尤其是在亞洲旅遊零售和中國大陸，皮膚護理占我們業務的絕大部分。

Our gross margin declined 430 basis points compared to last year. The positive impacts from strategic pricing in this quarter were more than offset by inflationary pressures in our supply chain, region and category mix and higher costs due to promotional items.

與去年相比，我們的毛利率下降了 430 個基點。本季度戰略定價的積極影響被我們供應鏈、地區和品類組合的通脹壓力以及促銷品導致的更高成本所抵消。

Operating expenses increased 500 basis points as a percent of sales, driven primarily by the reduction in sales. This also reflects our investments in areas such as advertising, promotional activities and innovation, which increased 150 basis points compared to last year.

營業費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 500 個基點，這主要是由於銷售額下降所致。這也反映了我們在廣告、促銷活動和創新等領域的投資，與去年相比增加了 150 個基點。

Operating income declined 46% to $768 million, and our operating margin contracted 930 basis points to 16.6% in the quarter.

本季度營業收入下降 46% 至 7.68 億美元，營業利潤率下降 930 個基點至 16.6%。

During the quarter, we recorded $207 million of impairment charges related to the 3 brands, primarily reflecting lower-than-expected growth in key geographic regions and channels given the pressure on consumer demand from the impacts of COVID.

本季度，我們記錄了與 3 個品牌相關的 2.07 億美元減值費用，這主要反映了鑑於 COVID 的影響對消費者需求造成的壓力，主要地理區域和渠道的增長低於預期。

Diluted EPS of $1.54 decreased 49% compared to last year. The impact from foreign currency translation and foreign currency transactions in key travel retail locations negatively impacted diluted EPS and by 5% and 4%, respectively.

稀釋後每股收益為 1.54 美元，與去年相比下降了 49%。主要旅遊零售地點的外幣換算和外幣交易對攤薄每股收益產生了負面影響，分別降低了 5% 和 4%。

During the quarter, we generated $751 million in net cash flows from operating activities compared to $1.8 billion last year. The decline from last year reflects lower net income and the negative impact from changes in working capital, primarily due to the timing of payments. We invested $419 million in capital expenditures, and we returned $708 million in cash to stockholders through both dividends and share repurchases. As we expected, our first half performance was pressured by ongoing external headwinds.

本季度，我們從經營活動中產生了 7.51 億美元的淨現金流，而去年為 18 億美元。與去年相比的下降反映了較低的淨收入和營運資金變化的負面影響，主要是由於付款時間。我們投入了 4.19 億美元的資本支出，並通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 7.08 億美元的現金。正如我們所料，我們上半年的表現受到持續的外部逆風的壓力。

Let me now turn to our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2023. For the second half of fiscal 2023, we are encouraged by the easing of COVID restrictions in China and the expected return of travelers throughout Asia and around the world once more stabilization occurs with outbound flights and visas as well as COVID entry and testing requirements.

現在讓我談談我們對 2023 財年剩餘時間的展望。對於 2023 財年下半年，我們對中國放寬 COVID 限制以及亞洲和世界各地的旅行者預期返回再次穩定感到鼓舞出境航班和簽證以及 COVID 入境和測試要求。

In Hainan, we are starting to see increased positive signs already as traffic level declines have moderated in recent months. However, retailer inventory levels are still somewhat elevated, reflecting the impact of the lengthy store closures as well as the rapid reduction in traffic and in-store staffing levels in November and December.

在海南，我們已經開始看到越來越多的積極跡象，因為最近幾個月交通量下降有所放緩。然而，零售商庫存水平仍略有升高，反映了 11 月和 12 月長時間關閉商店以及客流量和店內員工數量迅速減少的影響。

And in Korea travel retail, an incremental headwind has emerged since the last outlook we provided in November. The recently announced potential rollback of COVID-related supportive measures in Korea duty free is creating a near-term transitory pressure to our business with our Korean duty free retailers, which is pressuring our third quarter outlook.

在韓國旅遊零售業，自我們在 11 月提供上一份展望以來，出現了越來越大的逆風。韓國免稅店最近宣布可能取消與 COVID 相關的支持措施，這對我們與韓國免稅店零售商的業務造成了短期的暫時壓力，這給我們的第三季度前景帶來了壓力。

We now also expect more moderate net sales growth near term in our China business as the rise of COVID cases in November and December slowed expected brick-and-mortar retail traffic and social usage occasions, which continued in January during the pre-Lunar New Year shopping time frame. Collectively, we expect these impacts to create greater headwinds in the third quarter than we originally anticipated.

我們現在還預計，由於 11 月和 12 月 COVID 病例的增加減緩了預期的實體零售流量和社交使用場合，我們的中國業務在短期內將出現更溫和的淨銷售額增長，這種情況在農曆新年前的 1 月份持續購物時間範圍。總的來說，我們預計這些影響將在第三季度造成比我們最初預期更大的不利因素。

As a result, we are updating our outlook to reflect a shift in the start of the travel retail recovery in Asia from the third to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 due to the normalization of inventory levels in Hainan, the uncertain pace of recovery of travel retail traffic in Korea and a more moderate acceleration of growth in China. The momentum from our other developed and emerging markets in EMEA and Asia Pacific in the first half is expected to continue as those markets progressively evolve in recovery. We are also cautiously optimistic and expect our North America net sales performance to improve as our retail growth trend in the region has already increased, particularly in January. And we have a supportive innovation pipeline planned for the second half, as Fabrizio mentioned.

因此，我們正在更新我們的展望，以反映由於海南庫存水平正常化、旅遊復甦步伐不確定，亞洲旅遊零售復甦開始時間從 2023 財年第三季度到第四季度的轉變韓國的零售流量和中國的增長更為溫和。隨著這些市場逐步復甦，預計上半年我們在 EMEA 和亞太地區的其他發達和新興市場的勢頭將繼續。我們也持謹慎樂觀的態度，並預計我們的北美淨銷售業績將有所改善，因為我們在該地區的零售增長趨勢已經加快，尤其是在 1 月份。正如 Fabrizio 提到的，我們為下半年計劃了一個支持性的創新渠道。

As it relates to our operating income, while these external headwinds have introduced a high level of volatility that has had a meaningful impact on our financial results this fiscal year, we remain confident in the ongoing strength of prestige beauty, our business strategy and our ability to reaccelerate long-term profitable growth. We, therefore, plan to sustain the strategic investments imperative to that growth, including innovation, advertising and continued geographic expansion for many of our brands. These investments also support the continued strengthening of our multiple engines of growth as we invest in emerging markets and faster growth channels that are already progressing well in their recovery.

由於這與我們的營業收入有關，雖然這些外部逆風帶來了高度波動，對我們本財年的財務業績產生了重大影響，但我們仍然對威望美容的持續實力、我們的業務戰略和我們的能力充滿信心重新加速長期盈利增長。因此，我們計劃維持增長所必需的戰略投資，包括我們許多品牌的創新、廣告和持續的地域擴張。這些投資還支持持續加強我們的多種增長引擎，因為我們投資於新興市場和已經在復蘇中取得良好進展的更快的增長渠道。

As a result, we expect to see pressure on our operating income in the third quarter with an accelerated improvement in the fourth quarter as the sales recovery in travel retail, Mainland China and skin care start to materialize more meaningfully. The negative impacts from foreign currency that we anticipated in our previous guidance have improved due to the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, currency is still expected to be a meaningful drag to our reported sales and diluted EPS growth for the third quarter and full year. Our outlook is now based on December 30 spot rates of 1.067 for the euro, 1.207 for the pound, 6.964 for the Chinese yuan and 1263 for the Korean yuan.

因此，隨著旅遊零售、中國大陸和皮膚護理的銷售復甦開始更有意義地實現，我們預計第三季度的營業收入將面臨壓力，第四季度將加速改善。由於近期美元走軟，我們在先前指引中預期的外匯負面影響有所改善。然而，預計貨幣仍將嚴重拖累我們報告的第三季度和全年的銷售額和攤薄後的每股收益增長。我們目前的展望基於 12 月 30 日歐元即期匯率 1.067、英鎊 1.207、人民幣 6.964 和韓元 1263。

So with that backdrop, our guidance is as follows: we expect organic sales for our third quarter to decline 10% to 8%, primarily reflecting the pressures to our travel retail business that I mentioned previously. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by 3 points, and the impact of certain foreign currency transactions in key international travel location is not expected to be material. The impact of sales from certain designer fragrance license exits are expected to dilute reported growth by approximately 1 point.

因此，在這種背景下，我們的指導如下：我們預計第三季度的有機銷售額將下降 10% 至 8%，主要反映了我之前提到的旅遊零售業務面臨的壓力。貨幣換算預計將對報告的淨銷售額產生 3 個百分點的攤薄影響，並且預計主要國際旅遊地點的某些外幣交易的影響不會很大。某些設計師香水許可出口的銷售影響預計將稀釋報告的增長約 1 個百分點。

We expect third quarter adjusted EPS of $0.37 to $0.47 for a decline between 81% to 75%. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to EPS by $0.04, such that constant currency adjusted EPS is expected to decline between 79% to 73%. This includes the negative impact from certain foreign currency transactions and key international travel retail locations of approximately 1 percentage point.

我們預計第三季度調整後每股收益為 0.37 美元至 0.47 美元，降幅在 81% 至 75% 之間。預計貨幣換算將攤薄每股收益 0.04 美元，因此經不變貨幣調整後的每股收益預計將下降 79% 至 73%。這包括來自某些外幣交易和主要國際旅遊零售地點約 1 個百分點的負面影響。

For the full year, assuming a reacceleration of travel retail in the fourth quarter, we expect organic sales to range between down 2% to flat. Currency translation is expected to dilute reported sales growth for the full fiscal year by 4 percentage points, and we expect an additional 1 point of dilution from the impact of certain foreign currency transactions in key international travel retail locations. The impact of sales from certain designer license exits are expected to dilute reported growth by approximately 1 point.

對於全年，假設旅遊零售在第四季度重新加速，我們預計有機銷售額將下降 2% 至持平。貨幣換算預計會稀釋整個財年報告的銷售額增長 4 個百分點，我們預計主要國際旅遊零售地點的某些外幣交易的影響還會稀釋 1 個百分點。某些設計師許可退出的銷售影響預計將稀釋報告的增長約 1 個百分點。

We expect full year operating margin to be approximately 15.1%, a 460 basis point contraction from the prior year period primarily due to the geographical and category mix of sales and foreign currency impacts as well as the sustained investments to support recovery as previously mentioned. We now expect our full year effective tax rate to be approximately 25.5%, reflecting in part the change in our estimated geographical mix of earnings.

我們預計全年營業利潤率約為 15.1%，比上年同期收縮 460 個基點，這主要是由於銷售和外匯影響的地域和類別組合，以及為支持復甦而進行的持續投資，如前所述。我們現在預計我們的全年有效稅率約為 25.5%，部分反映了我們估計的收入地域組合的變化。

Diluted EPS is expected to range between $4.87 and $5.02 before restructuring and other charges. This includes approximately $0.29 of dilution from currency translation.

在重組和其他費用之前，稀釋每股收益預計在 4.87 美元至 5.02 美元之間。這包括約 0.29 美元的貨幣換算攤薄。

In constant currency, we expect EPS to fall between 29% and 27%, which includes a negative impact from foreign currency transactions and key international travel retail locations of approximately 4 percentage points.

按固定匯率計算，我們預計每股收益將下降 29% 至 27%，其中包括來自外幣交易和主要國際旅遊零售地點約 4 個百分點的負面影響。

Regarding the Tom Ford brand acquisition. We expect to complete this transaction in the fourth quarter and to fund it through a combination of cash, debt and deferred payments. In anticipation of closing this transaction, in January, we increased our commercial paper program by $2 billion. We also estimate a slight EPS dilution to the full year outlook that I just provided due to the final purchase accounting inclusive of transaction costs.

關於 Tom Ford 品牌收購。我們預計將在第四季度完成這項交易，並通過現金、債務和延期付款相結合的方式為其提供資金。為了完成這項交易，我們在 1 月份將商業票據計劃增加了 20 億美元。由於最終採購會計包括交易成本，我們還估計我剛剛提供的全年展望的每股收益略有稀釋。

While this year has undoubtedly been a perfect storm of unforeseen macro pressures on our business and the transition to accelerated recovery has indeed been longer than we anticipated, we have navigated through the challenging environment and strengthened the company in the process, thanks to our amazing employees, our company values and our multiple engines of growth strategy. We are encouraged by the many signs of improvement in the overall environment and the progress our incredible teams have made in preparing us for a strong recovery. Our fundamentals are solid and intact, reinforced by the actions we have taken over the past few years.

雖然今年無疑是我們業務無法預料的宏觀壓力的完美風暴，而且向加速復甦的過渡確實比我們預期的要長，但我們已經度過了充滿挑戰的環境，並在此過程中加強了公司，這要歸功於我們出色的員工，我們的公司價值觀和我們的增長戰略的多個引擎。我們為整體環境的許多改善跡像以及我們令人難以置信的團隊在為強勁復甦做好準備方面取得的進展感到鼓舞。我們的基本面穩固且完好無損，過去幾年我們採取的行動進一步鞏固了這一點。

From the acquisition of the majority interest in DECIEM in fiscal 2021 to the recent announcement of our agreement to acquire the Tom Ford brand and the BALMAIN license agreement, we are expanding our brand portfolio at both the entry and luxury levels of prestige beauty. We've taken strategic actions to enhance our go-to-market capabilities, supply chain agility and local relevance through our new innovation, production and distribution facilities in Asia. We've enhanced our digital marketing capabilities and continue to progress on our ESG initiatives. These actions and many more demonstrate that we remain confident in the long-term sustainable profitable growth of our business.

從 2021 財年收購 DECIEM 的多數股權到最近宣布我們同意收購 Tom Ford 品牌和 BALMAIN 許可協議，我們正在擴大我們在高端美容產品的入門級和奢侈品級的品牌組合。我們已採取戰略行動，通過我們在亞洲的新創新、生產和分銷設施來增強我們的上市能力、供應鏈敏捷性和本地相關性。我們增強了數字營銷能力，並繼續推進我們的 ESG 計劃。這些行動以及更多行動表明，我們對我們業務的長期可持續盈利增長充滿信心。

And that concludes our prepared remarks. We'll be happy to take your questions at this time.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。此時我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I was hoping, and this is probably more for you, Tracey, if you could walk through with us how you're -- I guess, the length of the supply chain works for supplying both Hainan and Mainland China currently, knowing it's shifting. Because as we think through the changed forecast in demand and knowing what I believe is a pretty lengthy supply chain, how you're managing production versus shipments and if that's sort of informing why there's so much visibility seemingly on 4Q. And I guess we should see inventory spike up on your balance sheet in 3Q. Is that right?

我希望，這可能更適合你，特蕾西，如果你能和我們一起走過你 - 我猜，供應鏈的長度目前適用於供應海南和中國大陸，知道它正在發生變化。因為當我們思考需求預測的變化並知道我認為這是一個相當漫長的供應鏈時，你如何管理生產與發貨，以及這是否在某種程度上說明了為什麼第四季度的可見度如此之高。而且我想我們應該會在第三季度看到資產負債表上的庫存激增。是對的嗎？

Yes. You're correct, Lauren, that we do expect that we will -- two things. One, inventory levels are still coming down in Hainan. They are almost at the level that we would expect sales to accelerate. So yes, you should start to see an inventory build related to the shipments that we expect to see in Q4. In Korea, again, the pace is a little bit more uncertain given the transitory nature of what's going on right now.

是的。勞倫，你是對的，我們確實希望我們會——兩件事。一是海南庫存水平仍在下降。它們幾乎達到了我們預期銷售會加速增長的水平。所以是的，您應該開始看到與我們預計在第四季度看到的出貨量相關的庫存構建。在韓國，考慮到目前正在發生的事情的暫時性，步伐更加不確定。

So we do anticipate, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, that we will start to see resumption of travel in Korea. And depending on the pace of that resumption, that will depend on the amount of shipments that we have in the quarter. But we have taken obviously an assumption there. We are sitting on a decent amount of inventory even in our own warehouses to supply the sales that we expect to see in the fourth quarter.

因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們確實預計，我們將開始看到韓國旅行的恢復。並且取決於恢復的速度，這將取決於我們在本季度的出貨量。但我們顯然在那裡做了一個假設。即使在我們自己的倉庫中，我們也有相當數量的庫存來供應我們預計在第四季度看到的銷售。

The next question is from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just sort of extend that question a little bit, right? We have a lot of quarterly volatility in terms of Q3 versus Q4. Q2, there's a difference in shipments versus underlying retail sales. Obviously, COVID impacts in China. So it's hard to get a great underlying sense of retail sales here and how the business is doing. So for retail, maybe you can just give us a little bit of an update on retail sales by region. I'm particularly interested in category growth and any macro impacts in the U.S. and Europe and then how you're thinking about Asia Pac and China versus the rest of the region. Less so on near-term results here, but more how results came into the quarter versus what you originally expected and that might inform the revenue trajectory as you look out over the next couple of years and how you think about it. I think you touched on a lot of aspects of that, but it would be helpful to get a general overview.

那麼稍微擴展一下這個問題，對吧？就第三季度和第四季度而言，我們有很多季度波動。第二季度，出貨量與基礎零售額存在差異。顯然，COVID 對中國產生了影響。因此，很難對這裡的零售額以及企業的經營狀況有一個深刻的了解。因此，對於零售業，也許您可以按地區向我們提供一些零售額的最新信息。我對美國和歐洲的類別增長和任何宏觀影響特別感興趣，然後你如何看待亞太地區和中國與該地區其他地區的關係。這裡的近期結果較少，但更多的是結果如何進入本季度與您最初的預期相比，這可能會影響您在未來幾年的收入軌跡以及您對它的看法。我認為您觸及了其中的很多方面，但獲得一個總體概述會有所幫助。

Yes. No, absolutely, with pleasure. Let me start with China, first of all. And so China, the results in the quarter were pretty good. We built significant market share. So the overall market in China was negative double digit. Our net sales were -- and our retail was negative single digit, and we built market share in every single category. So in most risers, we build market share in makeup, in fragrance, in health care, in every aspect. Now this, for us, is a very important sign that the -- our brands are really working. The aspirational value of our brands remains very, very strong, which in the moment of reopening is a very strong position to be. So excellent performance relatively to market.

是的。不，絕對，很高興。首先讓我從中國開始。因此，中國本季度的業績相當不錯。我們建立了顯著的市場份額。所以中國整體市場是負兩位數。我們的淨銷售額是——我們的零售額是負個位數，我們在每個類別中都建立了市場份額。因此，在大多數崛起者中，我們在化妝品、香水、保健品等各個方面都建立了市場份額。現在，對我們來說，這是一個非常重要的跡象，表明我們的品牌確實在發揮作用。我們品牌的理想價值仍然非常非常強大，在重新開業的那一刻，這是一個非常強大的地位。如此優秀的表現相對於市場。

Though some of our brands were shining, La Mer in skin care was the brand that was gaining the best market share. Tom Ford Beauty in makeup and Jo Malone London in fragrance was really leading the share gain. The other important reading of China is that during 11.11, our net sales were up 10.9%, and our retail sales were up 11.9% and holding the #1 ranking across various categories. And there was a lot of great success on the brand creative activity, live streaming, on innovation.

雖然我們的一些品牌很耀眼，但護膚品領域的 La Mer 是獲得最佳市場份額的品牌。化妝品領域的 Tom Ford Beauty 和香水領域的 Jo Malone London 確實引領了市場份額的增長。中國的另一個重要數據是，在 11.11 期間，我們的淨銷售額增長了 10.9%，我們的零售額增長了 11.9%，在各個類別中排名第一。在品牌創意活動、直播、創新方面取得了很大的成功。

And so the way when the consumers are back in this very difficult volatile period, like a situation like 11.11 where there is obviously high traffic, our brands respond enormously. And obviously, when the consumers are not back or don't travel or are sick at home is when, obviously, we have seen some issues. So in total, China is developing the way we planned. And from a market share standpoint, recovering also and is definitely going in the right direction.

因此，當消費者回到這個非常困難的動盪時期時，就像 11.11 那樣人流量明顯很大的情況，我們的品牌會做出巨大的反應。顯然，當消費者沒有回來、沒有旅行或生病在家時，顯然我們已經看到了一些問題。所以總的來說，中國正在按照我們計劃的方式發展。從市場份額的角度來看，復甦也在朝著正確的方向發展。

In terms of the future, the potential of China, we continue to see now the opening to create a gain traffic in Mainland in brick-and-mortar, we see the continuation of underlying success. And we see, obviously, the reopening of Hainan, and so the Chinese consumer on all fronts. Also, we see the fact that the Chinese consumer is starting to travel internationally. And this will gradually increase as the governments will agree visas and models of growth. In this moment, there are parts of the world we already opened. Others will open soon. Japan, we understand there's been an agreement, but it's not yet open, will be in soon. Korea is the one where the agreement is not yet finalized, but we are optimistic that in the future, this also would be resolved. So that's another very important trend. This will have a positive impact, obviously, in our retail channel, but also in the countries of destination, like it's always been historically happen.

就未來而言，中國的潛力，我們現在繼續看到在中國大陸通過實體店創造流量的機會，我們看到潛在成功的延續。很明顯，我們看到海南的重新開放，以及中國消費者在各個方面的表現。此外，我們還看到中國消費者開始出國旅遊這一事實。隨著各國政府同意簽證和增長模式，這種情況將逐漸增加。在這一刻，我們已經打開了世界的某些部分。其他人將很快開放。日本，我們知道已經達成協議，但尚未開放，很快就會開放。韓國是尚未敲定協議的國家，但我們樂觀地認為，未來也會解決這個問題。這是另一個非常重要的趨勢。顯然，這將對我們的零售渠道以及目的地國家產生積極影響，就像歷史上一直發生的那樣。

In terms of categories in China, obviously, the most important thing that will happen as the China accelerate on all fronts will be the skin care will accelerate for us. And so the acceleration of travel retail Asia, the acceleration of China, the acceleration of international travel of Chinese, which we had in front of us in part in quarter 4 but in part in -- fiscal year 2024, this will generate a substantial improvement of our skin care trends that, in turn, will have a positive impact on our margin mix. So that's obviously an important element of the program.

就中國的類別而言，顯然，隨著中國在各個方面的加速發展，最重要的事情將是我們的皮膚護理將加速。因此，亞洲旅遊零售業的加速發展，中國的加速發展，中國人的國際旅行的加速發展，部分是在第四季度，部分是在 2024 財年，這將帶來實質性的改善我們的護膚趨勢反過來又會對我們的利潤率組合產生積極影響。所以這顯然是該計劃的一個重要元素。

Then other regions of the world. As I commented in my prepared remarks, it has been very strong in Europe where we built market share in most of the European markets. Very strong in the rest of Asia, particularly strong gains in Japan and Australia, as I commented already. And in Korea, excluding the travel retail impacts that are particularly heavy on our Dr. Jart+ brand, which has a big percentage in travel retail, excluding that also Korea started progressing very well. So good progress in all the other regions.

然後是世界其他地區。正如我在準備好的評論中評論的那樣，它在歐洲非常強勁，我們在大多數歐洲市場建立了市場份額。正如我已經評論過的，亞洲其他地區非常強勁，尤其是日本和澳大利亞的強勁增長。在韓國，不包括對我們的 Dr. Jart+ 品牌影響特別大的旅遊零售影響，該品牌在旅遊零售中所佔比例很大，不包括韓國也開始取得很好的進展。在所有其他地區都取得了很好的進展。

Then North America. Now in North America, obviously, we also continue to lose share in the quarter. And overall, we would like to accelerate our plan of share recovery. But the good news is there's been very strong progress in quarter 2. Every single month, October, November and then December, there was progress in top line sales acceleration. First of all, in retail, the quarter in the U.S. ended plus 2%, so on the positive, but December was plus 6.5%, 7%. So in line with our goals of acceleration. So we see the U.S. progressing.

然後是北美。現在在北美，顯然，我們在本季度也繼續失去份額。總的來說，我們希望加快我們的股票恢復計劃。但好消息是第二季度取得了非常強勁的進展。每個月，10 月、11 月和 12 月，頂線銷售加速都有進展。首先，在零售方面，美國本季度結束時增長 2%，因此是積極的，但 12 月增長了 6.5%、7%。所以符合我們加速的目標。所以我們看到美國在進步。

Now the next 6 months, there is an even stronger plan. In the U.S., we have a strong acceleration of innovation. I mentioned already some in the prepared remarks like Estée Lauder Pure Color lipstick, Moisture Surge Clinique, Hyper Real on MAC, soft cream on La Mer, Cherry collection of Tom Ford. So -- and then we have some important distribution improvement. We are deploying more distribution in department store of our high-end fragrances in Macy's, in dealers. The ordinary is entering some doors in Nordstrom.

現在接下來的 6 個月，有一個更強大的計劃。在美國，我們的創新速度非常快。我已經在準備好的評論中提到了一些，例如雅詩蘭黛純色唇膏，Moisture Surge Clinique，MAC 上的 Hyper Real，La Mer 上的軟霜，Tom Ford 的櫻桃系列。所以 - 然後我們有一些重要的分佈改進。我們正在梅西百貨的百貨商店和經銷商中部署更多的分銷渠道。普通人正在進入諾德斯特龍的一些門。

We are deploying in Ulta and in Sephora, new doors -- incremental new doors and incremental expansion of our key brands in these doors. And we are renovating 100 freestanding store, opening 8 new freestanding store and continue to improve our omnichannel capabilities on all fronts. So we see an acceleration of our progress also in the U.S.

我們正在 Ulta 和絲芙蘭部署新門——增量新門，並在這些門中逐步擴展我們的主要品牌。我們正在翻新 100 家獨立商店，開設 8 家新的獨立商店，並繼續在各個方面提高我們的全渠道能力。所以我們看到我們在美國的進展也在加速

So in summary, when -- I should add, but Tracey also underlined, that at the same time, we have improved our capability behind this program. Our digital marketing is strong. Our supply chain is shortened and faster. Obviously, we have done progress in our factory in Japan. Our R&D has opened, our R&D center in China that will increase the amount of local relevant innovations in Asia in an important way in the next fiscal year -- starting next fiscal year in a significant way. And we have opened a new distribution, one that serves travel retail in Switzerland and one that serves, obviously, China -- within China, as we discussed also in the last call. So there are all these investments and progresses in capabilities that make us ready the reacceleration in the future.

所以總而言之，我應該補充一點，但 Tracey 也強調，與此同時，我們已經提高了該計劃背後的能力。我們的數字營銷很強大。我們的供應鏈縮短了，速度也更快了。顯然，我們在日本的工廠取得了進步。我們的研發已經開放，我們在中國的研發中心將在下一個財政年度以重要方式增加亞洲本地相關創新的數量——從下一個財政年度開始。正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，我們已經開設了一個新的分銷渠道，一個服務於瑞士的旅遊零售，另一個服務於中國 - 在中國境內。因此，所有這些投資和能力的進步使我們為未來的再加速做好準備。

And so this fiscal year, in summary, has been a year where, really, we suffered about the COVID lockdowns, particularly in Asia. And then the high level of infections during the reopening and the impact of the strength of the U.S. dollar that was particularly big in our high profit, high important channels like travel retail like China, travel retail Asia, because on Korea and China, the dollar was particularly impactful. So it was really a perfect storm kind of situation. But all the rest, apart from these 3 areas, really progressed and in some cases, very successful in market share gain. So that's my overview. I hope to answer your question that having an overview of the situation but I would say it's very, very encouraging for the recovery period.

因此，總的來說，本財年是我們因 COVID 封鎖而遭受苦難的一年，尤其是在亞洲。然後是重新開放期間的高感染率以及美元走強的影響，這對我們的高利潤、重要渠道（如中國旅遊零售、亞洲旅遊零售）的影響尤其大，因為在韓國和中國，美元影響特別大。所以這真的是一場完美的風暴。但除這三個領域外，其餘所有領域都取得了真正的進步，在某些情況下，在市場份額增加方面非常成功。這就是我的概述。我希望回答你的問題，即對情況進行概述，但我想說這對恢復期來說非常非常令人鼓舞。

The next question is from Peter Grom of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So Tracey, I wanted to ask about the implied outlook for organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter, which is quite strong and better than expected. And I know we're still a few months away from fiscal '24 here. But is the implied exit rate in the 4Q guidance a fair way to kind of think about the potential top line recovery looking out to next year? Or are there kind of the timing-related impact given what you're forecasting in 3Q that could be driving them a stronger growth?

所以特蕾西，我想問一下第四季度有機收入增長的隱含前景，這非常強勁並且好於預期。而且我知道我們距離 24 財年還有幾個月的時間。但是，第四季度指引中隱含的退出率是否是一種考慮明年潛在收入復甦的公平方式？或者，考慮到您對第三季度的預測，是否存在某種與時間相關的影響可能會推動他們實現更強勁的增長？

So look, we are expecting a stronger fourth quarter than probably you anticipated and us as well, given a few months back. And part of that, as we said in our prepared remarks, is because of the shift of recovery expectation, certainly in terms of some of travel retail. I would just remind you that -- and I know you're well aware of this that we're also anniversarying last year's some pretty significant shutdowns. So this volatility that we're speaking about actually started at the end of our fiscal 2022 in the fourth quarter, and we're coming up on the anniversary of that. So the numbers look particularly large from a from a growth standpoint because we are anniversarying some lockdowns in China and in travel retail in Hainan in particular, which was the start of some of the problems that we have anticipated on this call today.

所以看，幾個月前，我們預計第四季度的表現可能會比你預期的要好，我們也是如此。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，部分原因是複蘇預期的轉變，當然是在一些旅遊零售方面。我只想提醒你——我知道你很清楚這一點，我們也在紀念去年一些非常重要的停工事件。因此，我們所說的這種波動實際上是在我們 2022 財年第四季度末開始的，我們即將迎來週年紀念日。因此，從增長的角度來看，這些數字看起來特別大，因為我們正在慶祝中國，尤其是海南旅遊零售業的一些封鎖，這是我們今天在本次電話會議上預料到的一些問題的開始。

I think we are anticipating for fiscal '24, and we're not giving fiscal '24 guidance right now. But given that in the fourth quarter, all markets are anticipated to be open and remain open and traveling will gradually resume. And again, uncertain about the pace of that resumption, but we've certainly seen encouraging signs in many of our markets that fiscal '24 will be a strong year for us. So I wouldn't take the Q4 implied growth and apply it to fiscal '24.

我認為我們正在期待 24 財年，我們現在不會給出 24 財年的指導。但考慮到第四季度，所有市場預計將開放並保持開放，旅行將逐步恢復。同樣，不確定恢復的速度，但我們肯定在我們的許多市場中看到令人鼓舞的跡象，表明 24 財年對我們來說將是強勁的一年。因此，我不會將第四季度的隱含增長應用於 24 財年。

Peter, if that's what you're getting at. But certainly, we expect that we -- many of -- there will still be volatility in fiscal '24, but the volatility related to the pandemic and some of the things that we've experienced this year should be much moderate than certainly what we've experienced this year. And if you have any predictions on currency, certainly do let me know.

彼得，如果這就是你的意思。但可以肯定的是，我們預計我們 - 許多人 - 24 財年仍將存在波動，但與大流行病相關的波動以及我們今年經歷的一些事情應該比我們肯定的要溫和得多這一年經歷過。如果您對貨幣有任何預測，請務必告訴我。

The next question is from Michael Binetti of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。

Tracey, maybe I could just dovetail on that a little bit. You told us a few quarters back that 20% margin was a North Star. As you think out to next year and many of the moving parts of your business, finally start to come back online. Is that -- is there any -- I don't know, there may be some pull-forward revenue that leaks into the first half of the year. I don't know, obviously, you gave us the fourth quarter here. But as you look out to next year, is 20% an appropriate North Star for next year given the revenue drivers back online?

特蕾西，也許我可以稍微配合一下。幾個季度前，您告訴我們 20% 的保證金是北極星。當您考慮到明年以及您業務的許多移動部分時，終於開始重新上線。那是 - 有沒有 - 我不知道，今年上半年可能會有一些提前收入洩漏。我不知道，顯然，你在這裡給了我們第四節。但是當你展望明年時，考慮到收入驅動因素重新上線，20% 是否是明年合適的北極星？

And then I guess, Fabrizio, can you help us size the travel business a little better since it's such a big swing factor in the model here going forward. I think it was about 15% of sales pre-COVID, half of it China. You spoke a little bit about the shape of it at a conference in December that the pre-COVID the Chinese business -- the Chinese traveler was largely a Tier 1 international traveler. I think you've said Hainan is only -- has completely replaced that, but it's a different customer, maybe a lower-tier customer. Just because this moves the model around so much, can you help us just think about how big that business is today in the non-China markets, Hainan, non-Hainan China to help us think about the model?

然後我想，Fabrizio，你能不能幫助我們更好地調整旅遊業務的規模，因為它是未來模型中的一個很大的搖擺因素。我認為這大約佔 COVID 之前銷售額的 15%，其中一半來自中國。你在 12 月的一次會議上談到了它的形式，即 COVID 之前的中國業務——中國遊客主要是一級國際遊客。我想你說過海南只是 - 已經完全取代了它，但它是一個不同的客戶，也許是一個較低級別的客戶。僅僅因為這使模型發生瞭如此大的變化，您能否幫助我們想想今天在非中國市場、海南、非中國海南的業務有多大，以幫助我們思考該模型？

So let me just -- and Fabrizio will pick up on your questions on travel retail. But travel retail actually was larger. You're remembering, Michael, our online business was 15% pre-pandemic. Travel retail was more like 26% pre-pandemic. But in terms of the operating margin for fiscal '24, as you can imagine with some of the more recent events, we are still going through what our expectations are for fiscal '24, and we'll certainly provide guidance as we normally do in the August time frame. I think 20% is a little ambitious right now for fiscal '24 based on what we're seeing. But some of that has to do with how currency moves, which was my previous comment in terms of if you have projections on currency, let me know.

那麼讓我 - Fabrizio 將回答您關於旅遊零售的問題。但旅遊零售實際上更大。你記得，邁克爾，我們的在線業務在大流行前佔 15%。旅遊零售在大流行前更像是 26%。但就 24 財年的營業利潤率而言，正如您可以想像最近發生的一些事件一樣，我們仍在經歷我們對 24 財年的預期，我們肯定會像往常一樣提供指導八月的時間框架。根據我們所看到的，我認為 20% 現在對於 24 財年來說有點雄心勃勃。但其中一些與貨幣的走勢有關，這是我之前的評論，如果你對貨幣有預測，請告訴我。

But certainly, in terms of the business fundamentals, the growth, we would expect obviously more margin expansion that is in our normal algorithm for fiscal '24 because of the recovery of volume. And obviously, when you're down in volume as we are this year, as much as we protect the strategic investments, but also make choiceful discretionary investments as well, volume solves a lot of sins. And so we would expect more leverage on our expense base next year, certainly than we're able to get this year. practically because of the volume trends and as well as the shocks in terms of when those hits have occurred and how fast we can react to them.

但可以肯定的是，就業務基本面和增長而言，由於銷量的恢復，我們預計 24 財年正常算法中的利潤率會明顯增加。顯然，當你像我們今年這樣減少交易量時，儘管我們保護戰略投資，但也進行有選擇的可自由支配投資，交易量解決了很多問題。因此，我們預計明年我們的費用基礎將有更多的槓桿作用，當然比我們今年能夠獲得的槓桿作用更大。實際上是因為數量趨勢以及這些點擊發生的時間以及我們對它們的反應速度方面的衝擊。

So again, we are expecting a certainly progressive fiscal '24. And with all of the things that we spoke about in the prepared remarks as it relates to the investments that we made that will come online, we'll have a new factory operational in Asia that will make our time to market shorter. We'll have the new innovation center, which will start to contribute to the development of product for us in the future, et cetera. So all of those things that we said in the prepared remarks should also support the acceleration of growth in fiscal '24. Now for your travel -- for more on your travel retail question, I'll turn it to Fabrizio.

因此，我們再次期待一個肯定進步的 24 財政年度。考慮到我們在準備好的發言中談到的所有事情，因為它與我們所做的投資有關，這些投資將上線，我們將在亞洲運營一家新工廠，這將縮短我們的上市時間。我們將擁有新的創新中心，它將開始為我們未來的產品開發等做出貢獻。因此，我們在準備好的發言中所說的所有這些內容也應該支持 24 財年的加速增長。現在關於你的旅行——關於你的旅行零售問題的更多信息，我會把它轉向 Fabrizio。

Yes. No, thank you, Tracey. Also, I want to add on the margin thing is the first step of normalization of our margin that Tracey is describing, on top of volume is also -- will depend which volume because, obviously, if you assume that the normalization of business would be in travel retail in China, then you are assuming that the normalization will be in skin care that tend to be higher margin. So there will be a moment of recovery and normalization. And then from there, we will restart our normal algorithm. And obviously, we will see how the normalization trends evolve and how long they will take, but that will be the way we will maneuver back.

是的。不，謝謝你，特蕾西。另外，我想補充一點，這是 Tracey 描述的利潤率正常化的第一步，除了交易量之外，還取決於交易量，因為很明顯，如果您假設業務正常化將是在中國的旅遊零售業中，您假設正常化將發生在利潤率更高的護膚品領域。所以會有一個恢復和正常化的時刻。然後從那裡，我們將重新啟動我們的正常算法。顯然，我們將看到正常化趨勢如何演變以及它們需要多長時間，但這將是我們迴旋的方式。

In terms of the travel retail question, as Tracey clarified, 26% before and then -- even more during COVID. But the -- you are asking about the -- what are the key dynamics in travel retail. So the dynamics in travel retail will be, first of all, Hainan is now established. And yes, I said that when the international travel or the Chinese consumers will restart, Hainan will not be cannibalized in a big way as Hainan is now well-established vacation place for Chinese for internal travel. Yes, there are different target groups. The Hainan travel is obviously more affordable, easy, doesn't require a visa, doesn't require a passport, by the way. Keep in mind that at least before COVID, I do not have the last information now that everything is changing on the visa model. But before COVID, it's less than 20% of Chinese had a passport.

就旅遊零售問題而言，正如 Tracey 澄清的那樣，前後 26%——在 COVID 期間甚至更多。但是——你問的是——旅遊零售的關鍵動力是什麼。所以旅遊零售的動力，首先是海南現在立足了。是的，我說過當國際旅行或中國消費者重新開始時，海南不會被大幅蠶食，因為海南現在是中國人國內旅行的成熟度假勝地。是的，有不同的目標群體。海南旅遊顯然更實惠，方便，不需要簽證，不需要護照，順便說一句。請記住，至少在 COVID 之前，我沒有最後的信息，因為簽證模型的一切都在變化。但在 COVID 之前，只有不到 20% 的中國人擁有護照。

And so there is anyway 80% of Chinese there will go to Hainan, they will not travel internationally in this model. So Hainan will continue and will continue to develop. The addition will be the international charter, which is coming back in an important way. And then obviously, the Korea and rest of Asia, so Korea has always been a very big business. But as you know, Hong Kong, Macau, Japan were all very important travel retail businesses that now will improve. And so there will be different levels of growth, obviously, in all of these.

所以反正80%的中國人都會去海南，他們不會用這種模式出國旅遊。所以海南還會繼續發展下去。增加的將是國際憲章，它正在以一種重要的方式回歸。然後很明顯，韓國和亞洲其他地區，所以韓國一直是一個非常大的企業。但如你所知，香港、澳門、日本都是非常重要的旅遊零售業務，現在將會有所改善。因此，顯然，所有這些都會有不同程度的增長。

Now in terms of categories, the -- because of the prevalence of Chinese consumer and Asia travelers in general, as percentage of the total global travel retail, skin care is a very important category. So the travel retail acceleration in the future will carry, as I was saying before, skin care. And so this will be a double positive impact on marginality and profitability, is that combination is powerful.

現在就類別而言，由於中國消費者和亞洲旅行者普遍存在，皮膚護理佔全球旅遊零售總額的百分比非常重要。所以未來的旅遊零售加速將帶來，正如我之前所說的，護膚。因此，這將對邊際性和盈利能力產生雙重積極影響，這種結合是強大的。

And then by category, we see in travel retail a strong acceleration of the fragrance category, particularly the high-end fragrance category, which is, again, profitable and very interesting category for the consumers in this moment. We observed many travel retail partners around the world making more space for the high-end fragrance development in the future of travel retail. So that's another important positive.

然後按品類來看，我們看到旅遊零售中香水品類的強勁增長，尤其是高端香水品類，這對消費者來說再次是有利可圖且非常有趣的品類。我們觀察到全球眾多旅遊零售合作夥伴在旅遊零售的未來為高端香氛的發展騰出了更大的空間。所以這是另一個重要的積極因素。

And then the last point I want to make is keep in mind that the travel retail is driven by increased traffic and by increased conversion. The numbers that were available before COVID in a normalized way in 2019 were depending which part of the world, the travelers to buy as conversion was between 10% and 15%. We know also that when there is retail like in China and Korea, so where people can buy online before they go to the airport, this conversion number increased substantially. And there is a lot of retail business that has developed very well in Asia, particularly linked to Hainan. And so the amount of conversion of these travelers is increasing.

然後我想說的最後一點是，請記住，旅遊零售是由增加的流量和增加的轉化率驅動的。 2019 年以標準化方式在 COVID 之前可用的數字取決於世界的哪個地區，旅行者購買的轉化率在 10% 到 15% 之間。我們還知道，當像中國和韓國這樣的零售業出現時，人們可以在去機場之前在線購買，這個轉化率大幅增加。並且有很多零售業務在亞洲發展得非常好，特別是與海南有關。因此，這些旅行者的轉化量正在增加。

And last thing I want to say is that the comeback of Chinese consumers in international travel is very good news because the Chinese consumer, when they travel, used to have much more purchase per person than the average travelers from different regions. So the increase in mix of Chinese travelers is very good news for global travel retail as well. So in the post-COVID world, when will be really post-COVID, I think we are going to see some years of exciting opportunity globally in the travel retail development.

最後我想說的是，中國消費者在國際旅行中的回歸是一個非常好的消息，因為中國消費者過去在旅行時的人均購買量遠遠超過來自不同地區的普通旅行者。因此，中國遊客組合的增加對全球旅遊零售業來說也是個好消息。因此，在後 COVID 世界中，什麼時候才是真正的後 COVID，我認為我們將在全球旅遊零售發展中看到數年令人興奮的機會。

We have time for one more question. It is from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。它來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

I wanted to ask about the sustainability of growth in some of these categories, which benefited from reopening like fragrances, makeup and expectations for skin care improvement. It sounds like you're obviously talking to improving skin care trends globally, obviously, China as well. And then I wanted to ask the same question around China. So should we expect a similar reopening trajectory? Or are you expecting a similar reopening trajectory in China that we've seen around the rest of the world in terms of growth and in terms of the categories which benefit?

我想問一下其中一些類別的增長的可持續性，這些類別受益於重新開放，例如香水、化妝品和對皮膚護理改善的期望。聽起來你顯然是在談論改善全球的護膚趨勢，顯然，中國也是如此。然後我想在中國各地問同樣的問題。那麼我們應該期待類似的重新開放軌跡嗎？或者您是否期待中國在增長和受益類別方面出現與我們在世界其他地區看到的類似的重新開放軌跡？

So the reopening of China is, in China today, the level of sales online is the biggest percentage of the world. So to be clear, the reopening on China will mainly impact the reopening of brick-and-mortar. So will impact 50% of the business in China about will be very positively impacted by the reopening.

所以中國的重新開放，在今天的中國，線上銷售的水平是世界上最大的比例。所以需要明確的是，對中國的重新開放將主要影響實體店的重新開放。因此，重新開放將對中國約 50% 的業務產生非常積極的影響。

Obviously, during the period, like the one we just lived, mainly since mid-November to mid-January where the level of infections in China, so COVID were super high, 80% of families had somebody with the virus, et cetera. So the implications were enormous. In this period, you see also a reduced consumption. Everything, reduce consumption online, reduce interest, for sure, in make up or in other categories. So -- but that's temporary, obviously.

顯然，在我們剛剛生活的那個時期，主要是從 11 月中旬到 1 月中旬，在中國的感染水平非常高，所以 COVID 非常高，80% 的家庭都有人感染病毒，等等。所以影響是巨大的。在此期間，您還會看到消費減少。一切，減少在線消費，減少對化妝品或其他類別的興趣。所以——但這顯然是暫時的。

So your question is more what happened when all this is regular. The only thing I want to clarify that has to be regular, not only the ability to purchase in stores, but also, frankly, to be free of COVID, really free of COVID then the consumption come back. So when people will be free of COVID as a disease, when they will go back to the brick-and-mortar, we will see at least half of the business in China increasing dramatically on traffic. And we will see a continuous acceleration, a gradual continuous acceleration of the online, which is already very strong.

所以你的問題更多的是當所有這些都是正常的時候發生了什麼。我唯一想澄清的是，必須定期進行，不僅要能夠在商店購買，而且坦率地說，要沒有 COVID，真正沒有 COVID，然後消費就會回來。因此，當人們擺脫 COVID 作為一種疾病時，當他們回到實體店時，我們將看到中國至少一半的業務在流量方面急劇增加。而且我們會看到一個持續的加速，一個逐漸的在線的持續加速，已經是很強了。

There are many new platforms online that have been opened in China as we speak, which are promising, which are doing success. In our case, our success on JD or Douyin has been very, very strong. It's one of the reasons behind the market share growth and the success of the amazing Tmall events, particularly 11.11 or June 18 have been extraordinary. So there are a lot of good potential levers of growth that will be activated by the comeback of consumers.

就在我們說話的時候，中國已經開設了許多新的在線平台，這些平台很有前途，正在取得成功。就我們而言，我們在京東或抖音上的成功非常非常強大。這是市場份額增長和令人驚嘆的天貓活動取得成功的原因之一，尤其是 11 月 11 日或 6 月 18 日非常出色。因此，消費者的回歸將激活許多良好的潛在增長槓桿。

Then you are asking about the categories that will be (inaudible). First of all, skin care will be the biggest beneficial for the simple reason that skin care is the biggest percentage of beauty business in China. To be clear, that's not the case in Europe or in U.S., where there are other categories which are a bigger percentage of the total business. So this is a unique profile of the Chinese consumer, where skin care will be the biggest benefit -- benefiting the biggest from the normalization of the consumption patterns and of the purchase partners of the consumer.

然後你問的是（聽不清）的類別。首先，護膚品將是最大的受益者，原因很簡單，因為護膚品是中國美容業務中佔比最大的。需要明確的是，歐洲或美國的情況並非如此，那裡還有其他類別在總業務中所佔的比例更大。因此，這是中國消費者的獨特情況，其中皮膚護理將是最大的受益者——從消費模式和消費者的購買夥伴的正常化中受益最大。

Second, fragrance is on a roll in China. Fragrance was already growing before COVID. It has been growing during the period where Chinese at lower COVID levels than the rest of the world and will continue to grow with the reopening because there is a clear passionate development of this category. In China, the fragrance category is developing bigger percentage at the high end where we are focused. So the high-end fragrance is actually a much bigger percentage of the total market than in the rest of the world, which is great news for the development of this category.

其次，香水在中國大行其道。香水在 COVID 之前就已經在增長。在中國的 COVID 水平低於世界其他地區的時期，它一直在增長，並將隨著重新開放而繼續增長，因為這一類別有明顯的熱情發展。在中國，香水品類在我們所關注的高端市場中所佔比例正在增長。所以高端香水在整個市場中所佔的比例實際上比世界其他地區要大得多，這對這一品類的發展來說是個好消息。

Makeup would also -- makeup is the category which is most affected by COVID situation. So now it's the most affected. By the way, it's been the most affected everywhere in the world by the COVID situation, not only in China. And so the resurgence of makeup that we are seeing in this moment in U.S., in Europe and some of our brands, particularly MAC is benefiting from this very well, will happen also in China when COVID will normalize.

化妝也會——化妝是受 COVID 情況影響最大的類別。所以現在它是受影響最大的。順便說一句，世界各地受 COVID 局勢影響最嚴重的國家，不僅在中國。因此，我們目前在美國、歐洲看到的彩妝復興，以及我們的一些品牌，尤其是 MAC 從中受益匪淺，當 COVID 正常化時，也將在中國出現。

And last, we have launched Aveda in China for a reason, that we have seen the clear signs of development of luxury hair care. Obviously, hair care is a category super well developed among the Chinese consumers, but it's mainly developed in mass. It's the beginning of the journey of the development of a luxury hair care -- sustainable hair care part. And so that's really also exciting and is in front of us for the future development.

最後，我們在中國推出 Aveda 是有原因的，因為我們看到了奢侈護髮的明顯發展跡象。顯然，護髮是中國消費者中發展非常好的品類，但主要是大眾化發展。這是豪華護髮發展之旅的開始——可持續護髮部分。因此，這真的也很令人興奮，並且擺在我們未來的發展面前。

And in terms of fragrance, we continue to expand our fragrance portfolio. We're certainly seeing a pickup and expecting a pickup in travel retail as it relates to fragrance, and fragrance is still a growing category in Asia. So certainly, during the recovery, we expect that fragrance trends will continue to grow, particularly in the markets that are reopening now.

在香水方面，我們繼續擴大我們的香水產品組合。我們肯定看到並期待與香水相關的旅遊零售業有所回升，而香水在亞洲仍然是一個不斷增長的類別。因此，可以肯定的是，在復蘇期間，我們預計香水趨勢將繼續增長，尤其是在現在重新開放的市場中。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. If you were unable to join for the entire call, a playback will be available at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today through February 16. To hear a recording of the call, please dial (877) 344-7529 and use passcode 6947935. That concludes today's Estée Lauder conference call. I would like to thank you all for your participation and wish you all a good day. You may now disconnect.

今天的問答環節到此結束。如果您無法參加整個通話，將在下午 1:00 提供回放。東部時間今天至 2 月 16 日。要收聽電話錄音，請撥打 (877) 344-7529 並使用密碼 6947935。今天的雅詩蘭黛電話會議到此結束。我要感謝大家的參與，祝大家有個愉快的一天。您現在可以斷開連接。