雅詩蘭黛 (EL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

本文討論了中國海南從大流行中緩慢復甦,以及歐洲的強勁增長,尤其是在新興市場。作者指出,護膚品在復蘇方面一直是一個較慢的類別,但下半年和下一財年將出現強勁的創新,預計將加速增長。今年對公司增長的最大影響是貨幣波動。

通貨膨脹一直是供應鏈中的一個問題,特別是在運輸中,但它在某些領域一直在緩和。工資通脹已被納入今年預期的一些定價中。廣告費率已企穩,但供應鏈仍是通脹影響的焦點。該公司有能力通過定價來抵消大部分通貨膨脹,貨幣已成為未來可能漲價的考慮因素。

在準備好的評論中,提到了一些貨幣影響在我們的恆定貨幣結果和指導中進行了調整,其中一些與旅遊零售無關。這是一個很大的數目。因此,當您查看我們的利潤率以及對我們利潤率的重大影響時,貨幣對我們的利潤率有影響。因此,取決於匯率的變化,這會影響我們對 24 財年的展望。

但最重要的是,由於它關係到我們業務的基本健康,一旦這些中斷過去了,我們仍然——顯然,我們對過去幾年執行的策略感到非常強烈,這種暫時的影響,以及我們如何為未來的增長做好準備。我們正在亞洲開設一個新的生產和研發設施,這將減少一些運輸問題。順便說一句,它也會減少一些貨幣問題。

因此,我們在過去幾年中所做的許多事情確實加強了我們的業務,一旦我們擺脫了今年不幸延長的中斷,我們的團隊正在以驚人的彈性進行管理。在財報電話會議上,雅詩蘭黛和 LVMH 的首席執行官討論了他們公司的戰略。雅詩蘭黛的首席執行官將公司的成功歸功於其向新市場擴張的靈活性和意願,並以在美國向專賣店的擴張以及與京東在中國的合作為例。 LVMH 的首席執行官談到了公司的零售戰略,稱零售銷售在所有市場都是積極的,儘管積極程度各不相同。在一些市場,銷售額是兩位數的正數,而在其他市場,零售和淨銷售額之間存在脫節。 Arnault 將這種脫節歸因於某些市場的中斷和放緩。

兩位首席執行官都談到了通貨膨脹以及它如何影響他們的公司。雅詩蘭黛的首席執行官表示,該公司的一些投入成本正在上升,但預計這些成本將在今年內放緩。 LVMH 首席執行官表示,由於通脹壓力,該公司正尋求在某些市場進行二次提價。

兩家公司都專注於降低庫存水平,儘管他們以不同的方式接近它。雅詩蘭黛專注於降低客流量較低的渠道中的庫存水平,而 LVMH 則對如何為這些渠道的零售商提供產品更加謹慎。雅詩蘭黛公司是美容領域的全球領導者,截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日的財年淨銷售額為 175 億美元。公司的產品在 150 多個國家和地區以品牌名稱銷售,包括:雅詩蘭黛、Aramis、倩碧、處方藥、實驗室系列、起源、湯米·希爾菲格、M·A·C、Kiton、La Mer、Bobbi Brown、Donna Karan New York、DKNY、Aveda、Jo Malone London、Bumble and bumble、Darphin、Smashbox、Ermenegildo Zegna、 AERIN, Tory Burch, RODIN olio lusso, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, GLAMGLOW, By Kilian, BECCA 和 Too Faced。

雅詩蘭黛公司是美容領域的全球領導者。截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日的財年,該公司公佈的淨銷售額為 175 億美元。雅詩蘭黛產品銷往 150 多個國家和地區。在 Tom Ford Beauty、Jo Malone London 和 Le Labo 的帶領下,該公司的奢侈品和手工品牌繼續蓬勃發展。 Clinique 的淨銷售額強勁增長兩位數,憑藉 Clinique Happy 產品特許經營權在所有地區獲勝。

我們的護髮淨銷售額有機增長了 11%。在歐洲、中東和非洲兩位數增長的推動下,Aveda 引領品類增長,這得益於主打產品和強大的創新,包括推出色彩控制產品線。 由於中國的 COVID 限制以及由於美國假期發貨時間與去年同期相比難以與去年同期相比,化妝品的有機淨銷售額下降了 6%。東南亞和新興市場的淨銷售額強勁增長了兩位數由於 M·A·C、Bobbi Brown 和 Estée Lauder 的強勁表現,歐洲、中東和非洲市場。

M·A·C 繼續在整體上表現最佳,這主要得益於兩款主打產品的成功以及粉底、唇部和眼部子類別的強大創新。護膚品的有機淨銷售額下降了 11%。這一類別受海南新冠疫情限制的影響最大,在海南,護膚品占我們業務的大部分。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Estée Lauder Company's Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and webcast. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Rainey Mancini. Please go ahead.

    大家好,歡迎參加雅詩蘭黛公司 2023 財年第一季度電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音和網絡直播。關於開場白和介紹,我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Rainey Mancini 女士。請繼續。

  • Laraine A. Mancini - SVP of IR

    Laraine A. Mancini - SVP of IR

  • Hello. On today's call are Fabrizio Freda, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Travis, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Since many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements, let me refer you to our press release and our reports filed with the SEC, where you'll find factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

    你好。今天的電話會議是總裁兼首席執行官 Fabrizio Freda;以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Tracey Travis。由於我們今天的許多言論都包含前瞻性陳述,請讓我向您推薦我們的新聞稿和我們提交給 SEC 的報告,您會在其中找到可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素。

  • To facilitate the discussion of our underlying business, the commentary on our financial results and expectations is before restructuring and other charges and adjustments disclosed in our press release. Unless otherwise stated, all organic net sales growth excludes the noncomparable impacts of acquisitions, divestitures, brand closures and the impact of currency translation. You can find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on the Investors section of our website.

    為了便於討論我們的基礎業務,對我們的財務業績和預期的評論是在我們的新聞稿中披露的重組和其他費用和調整之前。除非另有說明,否則所有有機淨銷售額增長均不包括收購、資產剝離、品牌關閉的不可比影響以及貨幣換算的影響。您可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站的“投資者”部分找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施之間的對賬。

  • As a reminder, references to online sales include sales we make directly to our consumers through our brand.com sites and through third-party platforms. It also includes estimated sales of our products through our retailers' websites. (Operator Instructions)

    提醒一下,對在線銷售的提及包括我們通過我們的 brand.com 網站和第三方平台直接向我們的消費者進行的銷售。它還包括我們的產品通過我們的零售商網站的估計銷售額。 (操作員說明)

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Fabrizio.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Fabrizio。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Rainey, and hello to everyone. It is good to be with you today. Since we spoke in mid-August, the headwinds of COVID-19 restrictions in China, high inflation globally and a strong U.S. dollar intensified significantly. Amid the increased complexity, we delivered organic sales down 5%, in line with our outlook, and adjusted diluted EPS higher than expected.

    謝謝你,雷尼,大家好。今天很高興和你在一起。自從我們在 8 月中旬發表講話以來,中國 COVID-19 限制、全球高通脹和強勢美元的不利因素顯著加劇。在復雜性增加的情況下,我們的有機銷售額下降了 5%,與我們的展望一致,調整後的攤薄每股收益高於預期。

  • Even in these conditions, our multiple engines of growth strategy empower us to seize prevailing growth opportunities. Indeed, we realized outstanding performance in many developed and emerging markets around the world to partially offset the impact of COVID-19 restrictions in Asia travel retail and domestic China as well as tighter inventory management by some retailers in the U.S.

    即使在這種情況下,我們的多引擎增長戰略也使我們能夠抓住當前的增長機會。事實上,我們在全球許多發達和新興市場實現了出色的表現,部分抵消了亞洲旅遊零售和中國國內的 COVID-19 限制以及美國一些零售商更嚴格的庫存管理的影響。

  • To reflect these prolonged and heightened external pressure, we are reducing our outlook for fiscal year 2023, most notably for the second quarter. While Tracey will discuss our revised outlook in detail, there are 3 primary drivers. The first is the impact of ongoing COVID-19 restriction in Asia travel retail, particularly Hainan.

    為了反映這些長期和加劇的外部壓力,我們正在降低對 2023 財年的展望,尤其是對第二季度的展望。雖然 Tracey 將詳細討論我們修訂後的前景,但有 3 個主要驅動因素。首先是持續的 COVID-19 限制對亞洲旅遊零售業,特別是海南的影響。

  • The restrictions are leading to a slower return of tourism versus what retailers had anticipated, resulting in tightening of inventories. While it is significant, this near-term temporary pause does not diminish our deep conviction in Hainan for the long term as it is among the best brand-building destination for new consumers acquisition.

    這些限制導致旅遊業的恢復速度低於零售商的預期,從而導致庫存收緊。雖然意義重大,但這種短期的暫時停頓並沒有削弱我們對海南長期的堅定信念,因為它是獲得新消費者的最佳品牌建設目的地之一。

  • The second driver is the tightening of inventory by some retailers in the U.S., and the third is the far stronger U.S. dollar. Encouragingly, beyond these headwinds, consumer demand is robust in markets which are emerging from the pandemic, evidenced in the underlying fundamentals of our first quarter results and retail sales growth.

    第二個驅動因素是美國一些零售商收緊庫存,第三個驅動因素是美元走強。令人鼓舞的是,除了這些不利因素之外,正在擺脫大流行的市場中的消費者需求強勁,我們第一季度業績和零售銷售增長的基本面就證明了這一點。

  • Our optimism in the long-term growth opportunities for our brands and for prestige beauty is intact. During fiscal year 2023, we plan to continue investing in our brands, including for innovation, advertising, strategic entry into new countries and expanded consumer reach to grow profitable prestige beauty share.

    我們對品牌和尊貴美妝的長期增長機會保持樂觀。在 2023 財年,我們計劃繼續投資於我們的品牌,包括創新、廣告、戰略進入新國家和擴大消費者覆蓋面,以增加可盈利的美妝市場份額。

  • We expect a gradual sequential improvement to low double-digit organic sales growth and high teens adjusted EPS growth on a reported basis in the second half of fiscal year 2023. As these pressures begin to abate, the momentum in other areas of our business builds and our ongoing investments drive growth.

    我們預計,在 2023 財年下半年報告的基礎上,兩位數的低有機銷售增長和青少年調整後的高每股收益增長將逐步連續改善。隨著這些壓力開始減弱,我們業務其他領域的勢頭將建立並我們持續的投資推動增長。

  • Let me now share some insights from our first quarter. As while we had headwinds, we also had many bright spots that give us confidence in the second half and beyond. We realized double-digit organic sales growth in many large developed and emerging markets around the world. Japan and the U.K. grew strongly, alongside Brazil, India, the Middle East and Thailand, to name just a few.

    現在讓我分享我們第一季度的一些見解。雖然我們遇到了逆風,但我們也有許多亮點,讓我們對下半場及以後充滿信心。我們在全球許多大型發達和新興市場實現了兩位數的有機銷售額增長。日本和英國與巴西、印度、中東和泰國一起強勁增長,僅舉幾例。

  • Brick-and-mortar prospered in these markets as we welcome consumers with high-touch services, engaging activations and newness. Domestic China delivered sequentially improving organic sales trends of down single digits driven by excellent growth online, a better performance in brick-and-mortar.

    實體店在這些市場蓬勃發展,因為我們以高接觸服務、引人入勝的活動和新穎性歡迎消費者。中國國內的有機銷售呈現連續改善的下降個位數的趨勢,在線上增長強勁,實體店表現更好。

  • Our luxury brands, La Mer and Tom Ford Beauty, contributed to online growth, as did Aveda and Bobbi Brown, among others. We are very encouraged by the terrific results of our expanded consumer reach on JD and Douyin. From a retail sales perspective in the online channel, we grew nearly twice as fast as prestige beauty in China to gain share.

    我們的奢侈品牌 La Mer 和 Tom Ford Beauty 以及 Aveda 和 Bobbi Brown 等都為在線增長做出了貢獻。我們在京東和抖音上擴大消費者覆蓋面所取得的出色成果讓我們感到非常鼓舞。從在線渠道的零售額來看,我們在中國獲得份額的增長速度幾乎是聲望美妝的兩倍。

  • In the U.S., our freestanding store excelled, benefiting from both enhanced omnichannel capabilities and greater demand for our high-touch services, be it artistry at M·A·C or personalization at Jo Malone London and Le Labo. Specialty-multi also performed especially well, powered by traditional stores and enhanced by the partnership of Ulta Beauty at Target and Sephora at Kohl's. Clinique, M·A·C and Bobbi Brown led growth. Given excellent results in Ulta Beauty over the last year, M·A·C and Bobbi Brown are further expanding their presence.

    在美國,我們的獨立商店表現出色,這得益於增強的全渠道能力和對我們高接觸服務的更大需求,無論是 M·A·C 的藝術性,還是 Jo Malone London 和 Le Labo 的個性化。 Specialty-multi 的表現也特別出色,由傳統商店提供支持,並由 Target 的 Ulta Beauty 和 Kohl's 的絲芙蘭合作增強。倩碧、M·A·C 和 Bobbi Brown 引領增長。鑑於去年在 Ulta Beauty 取得的優異成績,M·A·C 和 Bobbi Brown 正在進一步擴大其影響力。

  • We continue to see promise in the U.S., evidenced in its overall retail sales growth in prestige beauty despite the recession risk and the strong performance our brands delivered in freestanding stores and specialty-multi. We remain committed to investing in innovation, advertising and granular consumer acquisition strategies as we aim to best capture the market growth opportunities.

    儘管存在經濟衰退風險以及我們的品牌在獨立商店和專賣店中的強勁表現,但我們繼續在美國看到前景,這在聲望美妝的整體零售額增長中得到了證明。我們仍然致力於投資於創新、廣告和精細的消費者獲取策略,因為我們的目標是最好地抓住市場增長機會。

  • Looking at brands globally. 13 brands rose organically, collectively increasing high single digit to represent over half of our organic sales. Among the 13, M·A·C excelled in makeup, La Mer in luxury skin care, Jo Malone London in fragrance and Aveda in hair care. While The Ordinary, our newest brand, appeal to consumers with its authenticity and innovative approach to ingredient transparency.

    放眼全球品牌。 13 個品牌有機增長,集體增長高個位數,占我們有機銷售額的一半以上。在這 13 人中,M·A·C 擅長化妝,La Mer 擅長奢華護膚,Jo Malone London 擅長香水,Aveda 擅長護髮。而我們的最新品牌 The Ordinary 則以其真實性和創新的成分透明度方法吸引消費者。

  • Fragrance sales rose an outstanding 18% organically and expanded in every region. Tom Ford Beauty, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS and Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle all contributed, driven by sought-after innovation and heroes as our luxury and artisanal portfolio evolves from strength to strength.

    香水銷售額自然增長了 18%,並在每個地區都有所擴大。 Tom Ford Beauty、Jo Malone London、Le Labo、KILIAN PARIS 和 Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle 都做出了貢獻,在我們的奢侈品和手工產品組合不斷發展壯大的過程中,在備受追捧的創新和英雄的推動下。

  • For example, Jo Malone London's momentum continue with gains balanced across the regions. Innovation served as a catalyst for growth. In China, the new Night Collection resonated beautifully as did the limited edition Brit Collection. Globally, the brand brilliantly leveraged its hero strategy, creatively reimagining the power of English pear and freesia, in a campaign to recruit new consumers.

    例如,Jo Malone London 的勢頭繼續保持在各個地區的均衡增長。創新是增長的催化劑。在中國,新的 Night Collection 和限量版的 Brit Collection 一樣引起了人們的共鳴。在全球範圍內,該品牌出色地利用其英雄戰略,創造性地重新構想英國梨和小蒼蘭的力量,以招募新的消費者。

  • Demand for fragrance was even stronger as ongoing supply issues of glass and componentry constrains this still excellent sales growth. Profitability for fragrance improved despite the significant currency headwinds, further evidence of the benefits derived from our strategic pivot to the higher end of the category.

    由於玻璃和零部件的持續供應問題限制了這種仍然出色的銷售增長,對香水的需求甚至更加強勁。儘管存在重大的貨幣逆風,但香水的盈利能力有所提高,這進一步證明了我們從戰略轉向該類別高端所帶來的好處。

  • Hair care double-digit organic sales growth was fueled by increasingly diverse growth engines. We were thrilled to launch Aveda in Mainland China, marking our entry in prestige hair care in the market. In the U.S., Bumble and bumble realized gains from strong results in Ulta Beauty at Target and expansions into Macy's.

    日益多樣化的增長引擎推動了護髮產品兩位數的有機銷售增長。我們很高興在中國大陸推出 Aveda,標誌著我們進入了高端護髮市場。在美國,Bumble 和 bumble 從 Ulta Beauty at Target 的強勁業績和進軍梅西百貨中實現了收益。

  • In skin care, while the Estée Lauder, Dr. Jart and Origins brands were most pressured by reduced retail traffic and travel in China, several brands still prospered. La Mer, Bobbi Brown and The Ordinary grew organically driven by coveted heroes and newness to showcase the gains to be had from entry prestige through luxury.

    在護膚品方面,雖然雅詩蘭黛、Dr. Jart 和 Origins 品牌受到中國零售客流量和旅遊減少的壓力最大,但仍有幾個品牌蓬勃發展。 La Mer、Bobbi Brown 和 The Ordinary 在夢寐以求的英雄和新鮮事物的推動下有機地成長,展示了從入門聲望到奢華的收益。

  • Innovation also resonated strongly in skin care, which bodes well for the future when these transitory pressures abate. In China, Estée Lauder luxury oriented Re-Nutriv was highly sought-after, and the launch of Re-Nutriv Ultimate Diamond Transformative Brilliant Serum boosted overall demand for the franchise.

    創新在皮膚護理領域也產生了強烈的共鳴,當這些暫時的壓力減弱時,這對未來來說是個好兆頭。在中國,雅詩蘭黛以奢華為主的Re-Nutriv 備受追捧,Re-Nutriv Ultimate Diamond Transformation Brilliant Serum 的推出提升了對該系列的整體需求。

  • Clinique Smart Clinical Repair gained momentum in China and also in the U.S. as its new moisturizer complemented the regimen's popular serum and eye cream, which launched last year. The Clinique Smart franchise benefit its 360-degree marketing campaign of these 3 products, featuring powerful scientific credentials and claims.

    Clinique Smart Clinical Repair 在中國和美國獲得了發展勢頭,因為其新的保濕霜補充了去年推出的該養生法廣受歡迎的血清和眼霜。 Clinique Smart 特許經營受益於這 3 種產品的 360 度營銷活動,具有強大的科學證書和聲明。

  • Makeup renaissance was evident as markets both reopened and evolved in recovery. The category growth in emerging market was especially striking a broad base from Latin America to the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia, while makeup also grew in most developed markets in Western Europe, along with Japan and Korea.

    隨著市場的重新開放和復甦的演變,化妝品的複興是顯而易見的。從拉丁美洲到中東、印度和東南亞,新興市場的品類增長尤為突出,而西歐大多數發達市場以及日本和韓國的化妝品也出現增長。

  • M·A·C had a remarkable quarter, fueling passion for makeup around the world, growing high single digits organically. Consumer embraced its unparalleled artistry, and the brand innovation proved captivating, especially Powder Kiss Velvet Blur Slim Stick for the lipstick finish and elevated packaging as well as M·A·CStack mascara.

    M·A·C 有一個非凡的季度,激發了世界各地對化妝的熱情,有機地增長了個位數。消費者接受了它無與倫比的藝術性,品牌創新被證明是令人著迷的,尤其是用於口紅和高檔包裝的 Powder Kiss Velvet Blur Slim Stick 以及 M·A·CStack 睫毛膏。

  • M·A·C's creative marketing activations further contributed to growth. In Southeast Asia and Latin America, the brand's TikTok challenges realized standout results, driving significant new consumer acquisition on Lazada's Super Brand Day, a strong double-digit volume growth across Latin America as over 400 content creators contributed to the campaign.

    M·A·C 的創意營銷活動進一步促進了增長。在東南亞和拉丁美洲,該品牌的 TikTok 挑戰取得了出色的成果,在 Lazada 的超級品牌日上推動了大量新的消費者收購,由於 400 多名內容創作者為該活動做出了貢獻,整個拉丁美洲的銷量實現了兩位數的強勁增長。

  • Before I close, I'm also pleased to share that today, we will release our fiscal year 2022 social input and sustainability report. It features exciting progress, made possible by the extraordinary efforts of our employees around the world across our ESG areas of focus and previously stated goals. The report also details new goals for electric vehicles, water reduction and responsible sourcing. Finally, on the last few earnings calls, I discussed actions we were taking to make more progress in our commitment to racial equity as well as women advancement and gender equality, which are also reflected in the report.

    在結束之前,我也很高興今天與大家分享,我們將發布我們的 2022 財年社會投入和可持續發展報告。它的特點是令人興奮的進步,這得益於我們全球員工在 ESG 重點領域和先前設定的目標方面的非凡努力。該報告還詳細介紹了電動汽車、節水和負責任採購的新目標。最後,在最近幾次財報電話會議上,我討論了我們正在採取的行動,以在我們對種族平等以及婦女進步和性別平等的承諾方面取得更多進展,這些也反映在報告中。

  • In conclusion, the current external pressures are many. However, as we look ahead, we remain confident in our focus on advancing our long-term growth strategy, further balancing and diversifying our multiple engines and fully leveraging the long-term promise of prestige beauty. We aim for fiscal year 2023 to be another year of progress on our strategy despite the headwinds.

    綜上所述,當前外部壓力很大。然而,展望未來,我們仍然有信心專注於推進我們的長期增長戰略,進一步平衡和多樣化我們的多個引擎,並充分利用聲望美的長期承諾。儘管有逆風,我們的目標是讓 2023 財年成為我們戰略又取得進展的一年。

  • In the first quarter alone, we set the stage to expand our luxury portfolio, having announced a deal to create BALMAIN BEAUTY with the couture fashion house. We extended our consumer reach in productive distribution in high-growth channels to match success across regions and continue to strategically expand brands into new countries with Aveda launch in domestic China. We also welcome colleagues into our new China innovation labs in Shanghai, amplifying our ability to best create for the Chinese consumer. And we began limited production for skin care in our new manufacturing facility near Tokyo.

    僅在第一季度,我們就為擴大我們的奢侈品組合奠定了基礎,宣布與高級定制時裝公司合作創建 BALMAIN BEAUTY。我們在高增長渠道中擴大了生產性分銷的消費者範圍,以匹配跨地區的成功,並通過在中國國內推出 Aveda 繼續戰略性地將品牌擴展到新的國家。我們也歡迎同事加入我們位於上海的新中國創新實驗室,增強我們為中國消費者創造最佳創意的能力。我們在東京附近的新製造工廠開始限量生產護膚品。

  • I would like to close with my deepest thanks to our employees for their exceptional commitment amid the complexity of the environment. Your creativity, wisdom and passion are beyond compare. Thank you. And I will now turn the call over to Tracey.

    最後,我要對我們的員工在復雜的環境中做出的非凡承諾表示最深切的感謝。你的創造力、智慧和熱情是無與倫比的。謝謝你。我現在將把電話轉給 Tracey。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Fabrizio, and hello, everyone. Our first quarter organic net sales declined 5%, and earnings per share was $1.37. Net sales were in line with our expectations, and earnings per share exceeded them even with incremental headwinds in the quarter. While sales overall met expectations, our mix of sales was different than we expected.

    謝謝你,法布里齊奧,大家好。我們第一季度的有機淨銷售額下降了 5%,每股收益為 1.37 美元。淨銷售額符合我們的預期,即使本季度逆風增加,每股收益也超過了預期。雖然銷售總體符合預期,但我們的銷售組合與我們的預期不同。

  • In August, our outlook anticipated that first quarter sales would be negatively impacted by continued COVID restrictions in China and Hainan, with gradual improvement throughout the first half of the fiscal year as the restrictions lifted.

    8 月,我們的展望預計,第一季度的銷售將受到中國和海南持續的 COVID 限制的負面影響,隨著限制的解除,整個財年上半年將逐漸改善。

  • However, the impact on our first quarter sales was greater than we anticipated in Hainan as stores were closed for most of the quarter. And as they reopened, traffic remained quite modest, which resulted in lower shipments due to the anticipation of a slower pace of recovery.

    然而,由於本季度大部分時間商店都關門,對我們第一季度銷售的影響比我們在海南的預期要大。隨著它們重新開放,客流量仍然相當有限,由於預期復蘇步伐放緩,導致出貨量下降。

  • Our outlook also reflected the comparison to the prior year in the U.S. when certain of our retailers secured shipments earlier for holiday due to supply chains and concerns, in stark contrast to the tightening of inventory by retailers this year due to concerns about slower traffic.

    我們的展望還反映了與美國上一年的比較,當時由於供應鍊和擔憂,我們的某些零售商提前確保了假期發貨,這與今年零售商因擔心交通放緩而收緊庫存形成鮮明對比。

  • Our actual results for the quarter reflect even tighter-than-expected inventory management with certain retailers in the U.S. These additional headwinds were somewhat offset by a faster pace of recovery in other parts of Asia/Pacific and in EMEA as well as the benefit of strategic pricing actions we took in July and August.

    我們本季度的實際業績反映了美國某些零售商的庫存管理甚至比預期更嚴格。這些額外的不利因素在一定程度上被亞太其他地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的複蘇步伐加快以及戰略性的好處所抵消。我們在 7 月和 8 月採取的定價行動。

  • From a geographic standpoint, organic net sales in the Americas declined 3%, reflecting the timing of shipments in the prior year as well as the tightening of inventory this year. The timing of shipments in the U.S. contributed 6 percentage points to the overall region's prior year growth.

    從地理角度來看,美洲的有機淨銷售額下降了 3%,這反映了上一年的出貨時間以及今年庫存的收緊。美國的出貨時間為整個地區上一年的增長貢獻了 6 個百分點。

  • In Latin America, nearly all markets grew double digits, fueled primarily by the strong recovery of makeup. In our Europe, the Middle East and Africa region, organic net sales declined 5%, primarily due to continued challenges in travel retail and APAC, including the negative impact from foreign currency transactions in key international travel retail locations of 2%.

    在拉丁美洲,幾乎所有市場都增長了兩位數,這主要得益於化妝品的強勁復甦。在我們的歐洲、中東和非洲地區,有機淨銷售額下降了 5%,主要是由於旅遊零售和亞太地區的持續挑戰,包括主要國際旅遊零售地點外匯交易的負面影響 2%。

  • Our global travel retail business declined as the ongoing COVID restrictions in China curtailed travel to Hainan. Stores there were closed for most of the quarter, and traffic has been slow to return, resulting in lower shipments as we support stricter inventory management with certain retailers. Conversely, travel retail sales in European markets and in the Americas rose triple and double digits, respectively, boosted by increasing resumption of professional and personal travel.

    由於中國持續的 COVID 限制減少了前往海南的旅行,我們的全球旅遊零售業務有所下降。該季度的大部分時間裡,那裡的商店都關門了,而且客流量恢復緩慢,導致出貨量下降,因為我們支持對某些零售商進行更嚴格的庫存管理。相反,歐洲市場和美洲的旅遊零售額分別增長了三位數和兩位數,這得益於越來越多的專業和個人旅行的恢復。

  • Net sales in the United Kingdom increased with double-digit growth from The Ordinary. Elsewhere in EMEA, the lifting of COVID restrictions and the return of tourism in the region drove growth in many markets led by India, the Middle East and Turkey, and resulted in double-digit growth in brick-and-mortar.

    英國的淨銷售額隨著 The Ordinary 的兩位數增長而增長。在歐洲、中東和非洲其他地區,解除 COVID 限制和該地區旅遊業的回歸推動了以印度、中東和土耳其為首的許多市場的增長,並導致實體店實現兩位數的增長。

  • Organic net sales in our Asia/Pacific region fell 7% due to the ongoing COVID restrictions impacting brick-and-mortar sales in Greater China and travel retail in Korea. In Korea, double-digit growth from nearly all brands was more than offset by the decline from Dr. Jart's travel retail business. The rest of the region delivered strong net sales growth led by Thailand, Malaysia and Japan. Many markets in the region continue to recover as restrictions lifted and traffic returned to stores.

    由於持續的 COVID 限制影響了大中華區的實體店銷售和韓國的旅遊零售,我們亞太地區的有機淨銷售額下降了 7%。在韓國,幾乎所有品牌的兩位數增長都被 Dr. Jart 旅遊零售業務的下滑所抵消。在泰國、馬來西亞和日本的帶動下,該地區其他地區實現了強勁的淨銷售額增長。隨著限制的解除和商店的客流量恢復,該地區的許多市場繼續復甦。

  • From a category perspective, fragrance led growth, with organic net sales rising 18%. Strong consumer demand for our brands and innovation drove growth. Our luxury and artisanal brands continue to thrive, led by Tom Ford Beauty, Jo Malone London and Le Labo. Net sales from Clinique rose strong double digits, winning across all regions with the Clinique Happy product franchise.

    從品類來看,香水引領增長,有機淨銷售額增長 18%。消費者對我們品牌和創新的強勁需求推動了增長。在 Tom Ford Beauty、Jo Malone London 和 Le Labo 的帶領下,我們的奢侈和手工品牌繼續蓬勃發展。 Clinique 的淨銷售額強勁增長兩位數,憑藉 Clinique Happy 產品特許經營權在所有地區獲勝。

  • Our hair care net sales rose 11% organically. Aveda led category growth, driven by double-digit growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, from hero products and strong innovation, including the launch of the Color Control product line.

    我們的護髮淨銷售額有機增長了 11%。在歐洲、中東和非洲兩位數增長的推動下,Aveda 引領品類增長,這得益於主打產品和強大的創新,包括推出色彩控制產品線。

  • Organic net sales in makeup declined 6% driven by the COVID restrictions in China as well as a difficult comparison to the prior year period due to the timing of shipments for holiday in the U.S. Net sales rose strong double digits in Southeast Asia and in the emerging markets of EMEA due to strong performance from M·A·C, Bobbi Brown and Estée Lauder.

    由於中國的 COVID 限制以及由於美國假期發貨時間與去年同期相比難以與去年同期相比,化妝品的有機淨銷售額下降了 6%。東南亞和新興市場的淨銷售額強勁增長了兩位數由於 M·A·C、Bobbi Brown 和 Estée Lauder 的強勁表現,歐洲、中東和非洲市場。

  • M·A·C continues to be an overall top performer, driven by the success of both hero products and strong innovation across the foundation, lip and eye subcategories. Organic net sales in skin care declined 11%. This category has been the most impacted by the COVID restrictions in Hainan, where skin care accounts for a majority of our business.

    M·A·C 繼續在整體上表現最佳,這主要得益於兩款主打產品的成功以及粉底、唇部和眼部子類別的強大創新。護膚品的有機淨銷售額下降了 11%。這一類別受海南新冠疫情限制的影響最大,在海南,護膚品占我們業務的大部分。

  • Our gross margin declined 190 basis points compared to the first quarter last year. The positive impacts from strategic pricing were more than offset by higher costs due to promotional items and inflationary pressures in our supply chain. Operating expenses increased 250 basis points as a percent of sales driven by the reduction in sales. Operating income declined 29% to $668 million, and our operating margin contracted 440 basis points to 17% in the quarter.

    與去年第一季度相比,我們的毛利率下降了 190 個基點。由於促銷品和供應鏈中的通貨膨脹壓力,戰略定價的積極影響被更高的成本所抵消。由於銷售額減少,營業費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 250 個基點。營業收入下降 29% 至 6.68 億美元,我們的營業利潤率在本季度收縮 440 個基點至 17%。

  • Diluted EPS of $1.37 decreased 28% compared to the prior year, slightly better than expected as a result of effective cost management. The impacts from foreign currency transactions in key travel retail locations and the exit of certain designer licenses negatively impacted diluted EPS by 4% and 3%, respectively.

    由於有效的成本管理,攤薄後每股收益為 1.37 美元,較上年下降 28%,略好於預期。主要旅遊零售地點的外匯交易和某些設計師執照的退出對攤薄每股收益產生負面影響,分別為 4% 和 3%。

  • During the quarter, we utilized $650 million in net cash flows from operating activities, reflecting increased working capital, primarily due to the timing of payments and higher inventory levels as well as lower net income.

    在本季度,我們使用了來自運營活動的 6.5 億美元淨現金流,這反映了營運資金的增加,這主要是由於付款時間和更高的庫存水平以及較低的淨收入。

  • We invested $152 million in capital expenditures for supply chain improvements, online capabilities and distribution expansion. We returned $325 million in cash to stockholders through both dividends and share repurchases, and additionally, this morning, we announced a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend. So again, we delivered our overall quarter 1 results as we anticipated.

    我們在資本支出上投資了 1.52 億美元,用於改善供應鏈、在線能力和擴展分銷。我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 3.25 億美元現金,此外,今天早上,我們宣布將季度股息提高 10%。因此,我們再次按預期交付了第一季度的整體業績。

  • Now let's turn to our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2023. While we believe the headwinds that impacted our first quarter results are largely temporary, it is also apparent that both the timing and speed of the stabilization of inflation and recovery from both the pandemic and currency challenges are uncertain.

    現在讓我們轉向我們對 2023 財年剩餘時間的展望。雖然我們認為影響我們第一季度業績的不利因素在很大程度上是暫時的,但很明顯,通脹穩定以及從大流行和疫情中復甦的時機和速度都是如此。貨幣挑戰是不確定的。

  • As retailers in Hainan were prepared for a faster recovery of traffic to the island with their inventory levels of our products, we have further modified our shipments to be more in line with the slower retail environment. And although we expect the adjustment to inventory by certain of our retailers, corresponding with potentially lower traffic, to continue into the second quarter, particularly in Hainan, we believe this adjustment will subside in the second half as COVID restrictions ease and consumers begin to travel with less safety restrictions in China. Until that happens, ongoing restrictions are expected to result in lower net sales in these areas.

    由於海南的零售商已經準備好通過我們產品的庫存水平更快地恢復到島上的客流量,我們進一步調整了我們的出貨量,以更符合緩慢的零售環境。儘管我們預計我們的某些零售商對庫存的調整將持續到第二季度,尤其是在海南,但隨著新冠疫情限制的放鬆和消費者開始出行,這種調整將在下半年消退。中國的安全限制較少。在此之前,預計持續的限制將導致這些地區的淨銷售額下降。

  • We also anticipate the tighter inventory management in the U.S. to abate in the second half given the still strong demand for our products at retail. We expect the remainder of our first half performance to be pressured as we navigate through these uncertainties. Despite the headwinds to net sales, we remain confident in the strength of our business strategy and expect to sustain our investments to drive long-term profitable growth.

    鑑於零售對我們產品的需求仍然強勁,我們還預計下半年美國收緊的庫存管理將減弱。我們預計,在我們度過這些不確定性時,我們上半年的剩餘業績將受到壓力。儘管淨銷售額面臨不利因素,但我們仍然對我們的業務戰略實力充滿信心,並期望維持我們的投資以推動長期盈利增長。

  • We plan to continue to invest in the areas of advertising, innovation, production capacity, consumer engagement as well as new consumer reach and continued strategic entry into new countries for some of our brands.

    我們計劃繼續投資於廣告、創新、生產能力、消費者參與以及新的消費者覆蓋範圍以及我們的一些品牌繼續戰略進入新國家的領域。

  • For the second half, we anticipate trends to improve sequentially as restrictions are lifted, travel throughout Greater China, including Hainan, progressively resumes and the tightening of inventory subsides in Asia travel retail and in the U.S. We expect continued recovery in various markets in EMEA and Asia/Pacific for the balance of the year.

    對於下半年,我們預計隨著限制措施的解除、包括海南在內的大中華地區的旅遊逐步恢復以及亞洲旅遊零售和美國庫存收緊的消退,趨勢將依次改善。我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲和美國的各個市場將繼續復甦。亞太地區的年度餘額。

  • Currency is also projected to be a significant drag on our reported results in the second quarter and for the full year as the U.S. dollar has continued to rapidly strengthen against key currencies. As we entered fiscal 2023, we took strategic pricing to mitigate higher-than-normal inflation. Both the magnitude and speed of currency movements experienced thus far, combined with inflation, have further suppressed our expectations for the balance of the year.

    由於美元兌主要貨幣繼續快速走強,貨幣預計也將嚴重拖累我們第二季度和全年的報告業績。隨著我們進入 2023 財年,我們採取了戰略定價來緩解高於正常水平的通脹。迄今為止貨幣變動的幅度和速度,再加上通貨膨脹,進一步抑制了我們對今年餘額的預期。

  • Specifically, based on mid-October spot rates of 0.978 for the euro, 1.122 for the pound, 7.29 for the Chinese yuan and 14.36 for the Korean won, currency translation is anticipated to continue to negatively impact reported sales and diluted EPS growth for the second quarter and for the full year.

    具體而言,根據 10 月中旬歐元 0.978、英鎊 1.122、人民幣 7.29 和韓元 14.36 的即期匯率,貨幣換算預計將繼續對報告的銷售額和第二次稀釋的每股收益增長產生負面影響季度和全年。

  • We expect organic sales for our second quarter to fall 11% to 9%, primarily reflecting the continued risk of disruption in Hainan, leading to further tightening of inventory and continued tightening of inventory by certain retailers in the U.S. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by 7 points, with an additional 2 points due to the impact of certain foreign currency transactions in key international travel locations.

    我們預計我們第二季度的有機銷售額將下降 11% 至 9%,主要反映了海南的持續中斷風險,導致庫存進一步收緊以及某些零售商在美國繼續收緊庫存。預計貨幣換算將具有稀釋性由於主要國際旅行地點的某些外幣交易的影響,報告的淨銷售額增加了 7 個百分點,額外增加了 2 個百分點。

  • The impact of sales from certain designer license exits are expected to dilute reported growth by approximately 1 point. We expect second quarter adjusted EPS of $1.19 to $1.29 for a decline between 60% to 57%. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to EPS by $0.20 such that constant currency adjusted EPS is expected to decline between 54% and 50%. This includes the negative impact from certain foreign currency transactions in key international travel retail locations of approximately 7 percentage points.

    某些設計師許可證退出的銷售影響預計將使報告的增長稀釋約 1 個百分點。我們預計第二季度調整後每股收益為 1.19 美元至 1.29 美元,下降 60% 至 57%。貨幣換算預計將對每股收益稀釋 0.20 美元,因此固定貨幣調整後的每股收益預計將下降 54% 至 50%。這包括來自主要國際旅遊零售地點的某些外幣交易約 7 個百分點的負面影響。

  • For the full year, we expect organic sales growth to range from flat to up 2%. Currency translation is expected to dilute reported sales growth for the full fiscal year by 6 percentage points, and we expect an additional 2 points of dilution from the impact of certain foreign currency transactions in key international travel retail locations.

    全年,我們預計有機銷售增長將持平至 2%。貨幣換算預計將使整個財年報告的銷售增長稀釋 6 個百分點,我們預計主要國際旅遊零售地點的某些外幣交易的影響會額外稀釋 2 個百分點。

  • The impacts of returns associated with restructuring and other activities and sales from certain designer license exits are each expected to dilute reported growth by approximately 1 point. We expect full year operating margin to be approximately 16.1%, a 360 basis point contraction from the prior year period, primarily due to the geographical mix of sales, foreign currency impacts and the strategic investments I previously mentioned.

    與重組和其他活動相關的回報的影響以及某些設計師許可證退出的銷售預計都會將報告的增長稀釋約 1 個百分點。我們預計全年營業利潤率約為 16.1%,比去年同期收縮 360 個基點,這主要是由於銷售的地域組合、外匯影響和我之前提到的戰略投資。

  • We now expect our full year effective tax rate to be approximately 25%, reflecting the change in our estimated geographical mix of earnings and less benefit from excess tax benefits related to share-based compensation. Diluted EPS is expected to range between $5.25 and $5.40 before restructuring and other charges. This includes approximately $0.44 of dilution from currency translation. In constant currency, we expect EPS to fall between 21% to 19%, which includes a negative impact from foreign currency transactions and key international travel retail locations of approximately 10 percentage points.

    我們現在預計全年有效稅率約為 25%,這反映了我們估計的收入地域組合的變化以及與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠的減少。在重組和其他費用之前,稀釋後的每股收益預計在 5.25 美元至 5.40 美元之間。這包括大約 0.44 美元的貨幣換算稀釋。按固定匯率計算,我們預計每股收益將下降 21% 至 19%,其中包括來自外幣交易和主要國際旅遊零售點約 10 個百分點的負面影響。

  • In closing, we remain confident about the long-term prospects for global prestige beauty and in our multiple engines of growth strategy. Despite the temporary external challenges, we plan to continue to invest selectively in strategic priority areas to support the ongoing growth of our amazing brands now and into the future and to gain profitable share globally.

    最後,我們對全球名牌美容的長期前景以及我們的多重增長戰略充滿信心。儘管存在暫時的外部挑戰,我們仍計劃繼續有選擇地投資於戰略重點領域,以支持我們令人驚嘆的品牌現在和未來的持續增長,並在全球範圍內獲得盈利份額。

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. We'll be happy to take your questions at this time.

    我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們很樂意在這個時候回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

  • Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

    Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

  • So obviously, a large cut to top line expectations in terms of organic sales growth for the fiscal year today, but you still sounded pretty enthusiastic about underlying demand for retail in your comments. So can you just give us more detail on how much of the fiscal '23 top line revision is more related to the temporary issues in terms of COVID or inventory issues you highlighted as primary reasons versus a second bucket in terms of underlying demand related to the greater macro pressure, et cetera? It'd be helpful to know how much from each of those buckets is driving the top line revision.

    很明顯,就今天本財年的有機銷售增長而言,頂線預期大幅下調,但您在評論中仍然對零售的潛在需求充滿熱情。那麼,您能否向我們提供更多詳細信息,說明 23 財年的頂線修訂有多少與 COVID 或庫存問題方面的臨時問題更相關,而您強調的主要原因是與第二個桶相關的潛在需求更大的宏觀壓力,等等?了解每個存儲桶中有多少推動了頂線修訂會很有幫助。

  • And then can I just also ask a similar question in regard to '24 earnings? How much of sort of the '23 earnings degradation versus your prior guidance might extend longer term? Is your view that it's more temporary? And I just asked that in relation to what you've talked about recently, which is greater flexibility in ad spend, more agility to respond to market conditions. Just trying to sort of understand how that plays into the longer-term earnings outlook beyond this year and what we're seeing this year.

    然後我可以就 24 年的收入問一個類似的問題嗎?與您之前的指導相比,23 年的收益下降有多少可能會延長更長的時間?你認為這更暫時嗎?我剛剛問到關於你最近談到的內容,即廣告支出的更大靈活性,對市場狀況的反應更敏捷。只是想了解這對今年以後的長期盈利前景有何影響,以及我們今年看到的情況。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. It's a complex question, so there's a lot to say. I will start, and then Tracey will join me in -- particularly in the second part of your question. So we are very confident in our retail trend globally and the growth of our business even in this very difficult external complex times. So just to give you an example of this. In North America, our retail was growing in the quarter, mid-single digits. And I could -- I can explain later all the many things, which are going well in this direction.

    是的。這是一個複雜的問題,所以有很多話要說。我將開始,然後特蕾西將加入我的行列——尤其是在你問題的第二部分。因此,即使在這個非常困難的外部複雜時期,我們也對我們的全球零售趨勢和業務增長充滿信心。所以只是給你一個例子。在北美,我們的零售在本季度實現了中個位數增長。而且我可以 - 我可以稍後解釋所有在這個方向上進展順利的事情。

  • But for example, it's a quarter where our M·A·C brand really demonstrated that it's back to growth with a 22% growth. And for our North America business, to see M·A·C retail coming back so strongly is great news because as you know, Clinique and M·A·C are a big part of the growth potential of our North America particularly business. So great news to have M·A·C back into growing and market share growing brands in our top brands portfolio.

    但例如,在這一季度,我們的 M·A·C 品牌真正證明它以 22% 的增長率恢復增長。對於我們的北美業務而言,看到 M·A·C 零售業強勢回歸是個好消息,因為如您所知,倩碧和 M·A·C 是我們北美業務增長潛力的重要組成部分,尤其是業務。讓 M·A·C 在我們的頂級品牌組合中重返成長和市場份額不斷增長的品牌真是個好消息。

  • Then when you look at China and you look at Chinese consumers combined, what was the retail in travel retail and the retail in Mainland, in domestic business, we grew mid-single digits, the retail, despite the inventories tightening issues that we have explained in the prepared remarks and in the press release. So there is an underlying strength.

    然後當你看中國和中國消費者結合起來看,旅遊零售的零售和大陸的零售是多少,在國內業務中,儘管我們已經解釋了庫存緊縮問題,但我們的零售增長了中個位數在準備好的評論和新聞稿中。所以有一種潛在的力量。

  • Then when you look, for example, to the China domestic recovery from the difficult moment of the Shanghai closure where we couldn't ship for some time, and we have spoken in the last quarter to the fact that we'll be gradually recovering, this -- now the brick-and-mortar remained with less traffic, but we gradually improve the trend. And the decline has been still a decline, but less, much less than in the previous quarter. And online, where there was no issue of restrictions, we're growing above the market, double than the market, growing again market share in online in China.

    然後,例如,當您看到中國國內從上海關閉的艱難時刻中恢復過來時,我們有一段時間無法發貨,我們在上個季度談到了我們將逐漸恢復的事實,這——現在實體店的流量仍然較少,但我們逐漸改善了這一趨勢。而且下降幅度仍然是下降,但比上一季度要少得多。而在線,在沒有限制的情況下,我們的增長超過了市場,是市場的兩倍,在中國的在線市場份額再次增長。

  • Then we spoke about the fact that we are very encouraged in general by the extraordinary progress in the fragrance business. Now we have taken the strategic decision to focus on the luxury of seasonal fragrances, and they are growing. They are profitable. And they are growing more than double digit as you heard from the numbers, even in presence of a complex supply chain for -- particularly for glass, globally, which reduced the ability to get to the maximum potential in this moment to fully fulfill demand. So more to come, also because the supply constraints will abate over time gradually.

    然後我們談到了一個事實,即我們對香水業務的非凡進步感到非常鼓舞。現在我們已經做出了專注於季節性香水奢侈品的戰略決策,並且它們正在增長。他們是有利可圖的。正如您從數字中聽到的那樣,它們的增長超過兩位數,即使存在復雜的供應鏈 - 特別是全球玻璃供應鏈,這降低了在這一刻充分發揮需求的最大潛力的能力。未來還會有更多,也是因為供應限制會隨著時間的推移逐漸減弱。

  • So we have now -- our hair care business is also in the double-digit growth, which is the other engines that we are activating in our effort to balance the growth across the different engines. And the launch in China of Aveda has been a big step of this, but also there is growth in the West, very strongly in our hair care business.

    所以我們現在 - 我們的護髮業務也在實現兩位數的增長,這是我們正在激活的其他引擎,以平衡不同引擎之間的增長。 Aveda 在中國的推出是其中的一大步,而且在西方也有增長,我們的護髮業務非常強勁。

  • The other interesting indication is the makeup. Makeup globally, except the lockdowns situations in China and the travel retail issues that we have described. But wherever there is market reopening, makeup is doing very well, and it's continued the recovery, as I said, with M·A·C performance at the center, which make us very, very happy because that's a very important step forward. And then we have extraordinary skin care innovation pipeline. Admittedly, the majority of it will come in quarter 3 and in quarter 4, but we will continue on our strong innovation in skin care.

    另一個有趣的跡像是化妝。全球化妝品,除了中國的封鎖情況和我們描述的旅遊零售問題。但是,只要市場重新開放,化妝品的表現就非常好,並且正如我所說的那樣,以 M·A·C 的表現為中心,這讓我們非常非常高興,因為這是向前邁出的非常重要的一步。然後我們擁有非凡的護膚創新管道。誠然,其中大部分將在第三季度和第四季度出現,但我們將繼續在護膚方面進行強大的創新。

  • And then when you look at distribution globally, there are many good news of expanded productive distribution. So the Douyin start in China is very, very promising, and this reflects also in a promising start of 11.11. The distribution in the North America specialty-multi is becoming more and more productive, and we are expanding the productive part of it. In the next year, we'll continue this expansion.

    然後,當您查看全球分銷時,有很多關於擴大生產分銷的好消息。所以抖音在中國的起步非常非常有希望,這也反映在 11.11 的有希望的開始。北美專業多元化的分銷變得越來越多產,我們正在擴大其中的生產部分。明年,我們將繼續這種擴張。

  • And there is also the important concept of expanding our brands in new countries, which technically is new distribution of our brands to new consumers. And obviously, Aveda in China is the big, but it's not the only one. And in quarter 3 and quarter 2, we -- quarter 4, sorry, we will continue with these expansions.

    還有一個重要的概念是在新的國家擴展我們的品牌,從技術上講,這就是將我們的品牌重新分配給新的消費者。顯然,Aveda 在中國是最大的,但不是唯一的。在第 3 季度和第 2 季度,我們 - 第 4 季度,抱歉,我們將繼續進行這些擴展。

  • So just a few examples to give you the sense that we are strong, by category, strong in hair care, strong in fragrances, strong in makeup wherever there is reopening and so strong in the future in the market that will reopen in the future. And in skin care, the large majority of the issue that we are encountering is linked to the lockdown and very strong innovation plan to restart growth there. So we remain very confident on the long-term growth.

    因此,僅舉幾個例子就可以讓您感受到我們在類別上很強大,在護髮方面很強大,在香水方面很強大,在重新開放的地方也很強大,在未來重新開放的市場中也很強大。在皮膚護理方面,我們遇到的大部分問題都與鎖定和非常強大的創新計劃有關,以重新啟動那裡的增長。因此,我們對長期增長仍然非常有信心。

  • Proof of that last point is that in the second semester, if you look to our outlook, we are assuming to go back in total in the semester to double-digit growth, but obviously, as we explained, gradually in quarter 3 and then more stronger in quarter 4. Tracey?

    最後一點的證據是,在第二學期,如果你看一下我們的前景,我們假設在本學期總體上會回到兩位數的增長,但顯然,正如我們所解釋的,在第三季度逐漸增長,然後更多第四季度更強。特蕾西?

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And so Dara, obviously, what's impacting us at the beginning of this year are significant unanticipated impacts to the business starting in the third and fourth quarter of last year and continuing into the first quarter with disruptions as it relates to some of the lockdowns and key parts of our business.

    是的。因此,達拉,顯然,在今年年初影響我們的是從去年第三季度和第四季度開始對業務產生重大意料之外的影響,並持續到第一季度,因為它與一些鎖定和關鍵我們業務的一部分。

  • As we think forward and for the outlook that we've provided today, we are expecting some easing, as Fabrizio said, in the second half of the year. And in the fourth quarter, we are expecting further easing. As we think about the construct of the business heading forward and assuming more stabilization of some of these matters, our business is intact in terms of the leverage that we can get, the margin expansion that we can get and the growth that we can get as well.

    正如法布里齊奧所說,在我們展望未來以及我們今天提供的前景時,我們預計下半年會出現一些放鬆。在第四季度,我們預計會進一步寬鬆。當我們考慮向前發展的業務結構並假設其中一些問題更加穩定時,我們的業務在我們可以獲得的槓桿、我們可以獲得的利潤增長和我們可以獲得的增長方面是完整的出色地。

  • As Fabrizio said, consumer demand is strong. It has been disrupted. We are mindful, as everyone else is, that there could be recessionary pressures in some of our key markets, and we are taking that into account, but the flexibility that we've created in our cost structure over the last few years remains intact and certainly positions us well in the future once there is more stabilization in the macro environment for continued strong top line growth and also continued strong margin expansion and EPS growth.

    正如法布里齊奧所說,消費者需求強勁。它被打亂了。和其他人一樣,我們注意到我們的一些主要市場可能存在衰退壓力,我們正在考慮這一點,但過去幾年我們在成本結構中創造的靈活性仍然完好無損,一旦宏觀環境更加穩定,收入持續強勁增長以及利潤率持續強勁增長和每股收益增長,我們肯定會在未來處於有利地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will come from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Chris Carey。

  • Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

    Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

  • So I'm sure China recovery will get plenty of focus on the call today, so perhaps I'll just actually take a bit more of a medium, longer-term angle here. Fabrizio, can you just comment on the willingness of the Estée Lauder organization to take some of your brands beyond historical channels or types of interactions with retailers?

    因此,我相信中國的複蘇將在今天的電話會議上得到大量關注,所以也許我實際上會在這裡多考慮一點中長期的角度。 Fabrizio,您能否評論一下雅詩蘭黛組織願意讓您的一些品牌超越歷史渠道或與零售商的互動類型?

  • I think you called out the specialty-multi expansion in the U.S. Clearly, in China, you've expanded with JD and Chinese TikTok. It feels like the organization is certainly becoming more comfortable working with different kinds of channels.

    我認為你提到了美國的專業多元化擴張。顯然,在中國,你已經通過京東和中國的 TikTok 進行了擴張。感覺組織肯定會越來越適應與不同類型的渠道合作。

  • And I wonder, just in the context of a broader recovery, and certainly, there's going to be a big debate on what is the true earnings power of this organization, I wonder if you can just comment on whether this is true, this concept of sort of expanded comfort with new opportunities and whether you see additional opportunities ahead and where those might be.

    我想知道,就在更廣泛的複蘇背景下,當然,關於這個組織真正的盈利能力是什麼,會有一場大辯論,我想知道你是否可以評論一下這是否屬實,這個概念對新機會的舒適度以及您是否看到未來的其他機會以及這些機會可能在哪裡。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, I think we've been very much focused on having the right level of distribution and focus where the consumer preference is evolving over the last years. We operate in 12 channels now versus basically 1 channels 15 years ago. And so this comfort is there, and you can see this, first of all, in our online expansion that continues to be strong.

    是的。不,我認為我們一直非常關注正確的分銷水平,並關注過去幾年消費者偏好的變化。我們現在有 12 個頻道,而 15 年前基本上只有 1 個頻道。所以這種舒適就在那裡,你可以首先在我們持續強勁的在線擴張中看到這一點。

  • We have obviously our brand.com that continue to be expanded to more brands, to better sites, to more services in the sites. You have our 3PP, meaning the Tmall model, which is expanding around the world. Also Alibaba is present in different countries, and we are collaborating with them in expanding the model in different countries, Lazada being probably the most evident example at this point to this expansion.

    顯然,我們的brand.com 將繼續擴展到更多品牌、更好的網站和網站中的更多服務。你有我們的3PP,也就是天貓模式,它正在全球擴張。阿里巴巴也在不同的國家開展業務,我們正在與他們合作在不同的國家擴展該模式,Lazada 可能是目前這種擴展最明顯的例子。

  • We are playing with pure play more and more, and we have many examples, particularly in Europe of this. And obviously, our retail.com continue to be expanded. And then in terms of our comfort with specialty-multi, I believe this is not new. We are very comfortable, and there is -- with specialty-multi, we are doing well. We are growing. We have increased our market shares in the channel as well, in North America, but not only in North America, in many other parts of the world, and this is progressing very, very well.

    我們越來越多地玩純粹的遊戲,我們有很多例子,尤其是在歐洲。顯然,我們的retail.com 繼續擴大。然後就我們對專業多用途的舒適度而言,我相信這並不新鮮。我們很舒服,而且有 - 與專業多,我們做得很好。我們正在成長。我們也在北美增加了我們在渠道中的市場份額,但不僅在北美,在世界許多其他地區,而且進展非常非常好。

  • The other important news in this sense is direct to consumers. So our freestanding stores had a tremendous quarter. And we see the model of freestanding store coming back really strongly wherever there is a reopening and wherever the consumers are really enthusiastic to go back to the brick-and-mortar. And today, our freestanding stores are more efficient and more effective for the many efforts of cost management and the expertise in retail we brought in the company in the last years. So the return of traffic to freestanding stores is very promising.

    從這個意義上說,另一個重要的消息是直接面向消費者的。所以我們的獨立商店有一個巨大的季度。我們看到,只要有重新開業的地方,以及消費者真正熱衷於回到實體店的地方,獨立商店的模式就會強勢回歸。今天,我們的獨立式商店更加高效,因為我們在過去幾年為公司帶來了許多成本管理和零售專業知識。因此,獨立商店的流量回歸是非常有希望的。

  • Just to give an example, our freestanding stores in the U.S. for fragrance brands, we are plus 33% in the quarter. So very, very strong sign [of remaking]. And so we will -- with the expansion, you spoke about JD, but I spoke about Douyin, exactly, the Chinese TikTok. And this is a more recent expansion. And the interesting thing is not only we are more comfortable with playing in these channels, but we are winning when we play in these channels.

    舉個例子,我們在美國的香水品牌獨立商店,本季度增長了 33%。非常非常強烈的[重塑]跡象。所以我們會——隨著擴張,你談到了京東,但我談到了抖音,確切地說,是中國的 TikTok。這是最近的一次擴展。有趣的是,我們不僅在這些頻道玩遊戲更自在,而且當我們在這些頻道玩遊戲時,我們正在獲勝。

  • Look at what happened in JD where we -- when we enter, we enter really, really well. With a great partnership, great results. So we are definitely continue to manage our distribution in line with consumer preference here with the evolution of where the consumers we serve go. However, we will keep in mind that our distribution has to be with high-touch services.

    看看我們在京東發生的事情——當我們進入時,我們進入得非常非常好。有了良好的合作夥伴關係,取得了巨大的成果。因此,隨著我們所服務的消費者的發展方向,我們肯定會繼續根據消費者的偏好來管理我們的分銷。但是,我們將記住,我們的分發必須提供高接觸服務。

  • It has to be a distribution which serves the consumer not only with availability of product and pricing, but serve the consumer with our education, customization, care services. And they're focused on building brand equity or building experiences, and they're focusing on building the unique elements of luxury.

    它必須是一個不僅為消費者提供產品和定價的分銷渠道,而且還為消費者提供我們的教育、定制、護理服務。他們專注於建立品牌資產或建立體驗,他們專注於建立奢侈品的獨特元素。

  • We are a pure play in luxury. So it's not only about distributing wherever there is mass of consumers. It's about distributing with quality, branding and services. And so that focus has not changed, but we have become better in creating these environments in places where there is more and more consumer traffic.

    我們是純粹的奢侈品。因此,這不僅僅是在有大量消費者的地方進行分發。這是關於質量、品牌和服務的分銷。因此,重點沒有改變,但我們在消費者流量越來越多的地方創造這些環境方面做得更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will be from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • Maybe following up on Dara's question. Your comments were helpful, both Fabrizio and Tracey. But is there a rate of overall consumption or retail sales growth that you anticipate across your portfolio in the year, just that we can compare to the flat to 2% positive organic growth that you've assumed in your outlook? That's the question -- kind of follow-up.

    也許跟進達拉的問題。您的評論很有幫助,Fabrizio 和 Tracey。但是,您在今年的投資組合中是否有預期的整體消費或零售銷售增長率,只是我們可以與您在展望中假設的持平至 2% 的正有機增長進行比較?這就是問題——一種跟進。

  • And then I guess I'd also, if possible, like a little bit more context around the retailer destocking that you've called out broadly, but particularly in the U.S. as it's not something I think -- I don't think we've heard that from your peers, but certainly a dynamic we've seen across other categories. But so far, beauty hasn't been a focal point for that. So just again, a bit more detail on what you've seen, how much you think maybe specific to your portfolio and what the outlook is through the holidays into the second half?

    然後我想,如果可能的話,我還會想更多關於零售商去庫存的背景信息,你已經廣泛呼籲,但尤其是在美國,因為我認為這不是 - 我不認為我們'從您的同行那裡聽說過,但肯定是我們在其他類別中看到的動態。但到目前為止,美還不是重點。再說一次,關於您所看到的內容的更多細節,您認為可能對您的投資組合有多少影響,以及下半年假期的前景如何?

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • So let me start on retail. It's hard to do an average retail across all of our markets, as you might well imagine. I would tell you that in all of our markets, as we look at the projection for the year, retail is positive. It varies by market, obviously, given some of the disruptions and slowness in certain markets, but it's positive in every market.

    所以讓我從零售開始。正如您可能想像的那樣,很難在我們所有的市場上進行平均零售。我會告訴你,在我們所有的市場中,當我們查看今年的預測時,零售是積極的。顯然,考慮到某些市場的一些中斷和緩慢,它因市場而異,但它在每個市場都是積極的。

  • In some markets, it's actually double digit positive. And so again, the gap between retail and net in many of our markets, certainly in our recovery markets, is not very big at all. In markets where we've had more disruption or we have the anticipation of a slowdown, that's where we're seeing some more of the disconnect between retail and net.

    在某些市場,它實際上是兩位數的正數。同樣,在我們的許多市場,尤其是在我們的複蘇市場,零售和網絡之間的差距根本不是很大。在我們受到更多干擾或預計會放緩的市場中,我們看到零售與網絡之間存在更多脫節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group.

    下一個問題將來自 Telsey 諮詢集團的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • As you think about what was embedded in your prior guidance in terms of pricing, is there any change that you're making in any of the categories of pricing that you're looking at? And then in the U.S., are you seeing any difference, whether it's your freestanding, whether it's specialty-multi or department stores, is there a difference in performance and how you're thinking about inventory going forward?

    當您考慮之前的定價指南中包含的內容時,您正在查看的任何定價類別中是否有任何更改?然後在美國,您是否看到任何差異,無論是您的獨立商店,無論是專賣店還是百貨商店,性能是否存在差異以及您如何看待未來的庫存?

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I'll start with the pricing. We are looking at -- so there's no change in terms of the pricing that we took at the beginning of the year. We talked about pricing at about 5.5% on average across our markets, and that was taken in the July, August time frame. We also anticipated in the prior guidance a secondary price increase, and we are looking at that in light of some of the inflation pressures and looking at taking slightly more pricing in certain markets, not across all markets. And that would be in the January, February time frame.

    所以我將從定價開始。我們正在考慮 - 所以我們在年初採取的定價沒有變化。我們談到我們市場的平均定價約為 5.5%,這是在 7 月、8 月的時間框架內進行的。我們還在先前的指導中預計二次價格上漲,我們正在考慮一些通脹壓力,並考慮在某些市場(而不是所有市場)稍微提高定價。那將是在一月、二月的時間範圍內。

  • As it relates to our channels, channels that have had lower traffic are the ones that we're most focused on in terms of, obviously, our shipments to those channels, so they don't end up overstock so we can bring down some of the stock levels in those channels. So we talked about if you just think about the first quarter, we called out the channels that performed strongly for us in the first quarter. So our specialty-multi channel performed strongly in our first quarter. Online in China performed strongly in our first quarter. So those are the channels that continue to perform strongly for us. Other channels, we are a bit more cautious.

    因為它與我們的渠道有關,流量較低的渠道是我們最關注的渠道,顯然,我們對這些渠道的發貨,所以它們最終不會積壓,所以我們可以減少一些這些渠道中的庫存水平。因此,如果您只考慮第一季度,我們談到了第一季度對我們表現強勁的渠道。因此,我們的專業多渠道在第一季度表現強勁。中國在線在第一季度表現強勁。所以這些是繼續為我們表現強勁的渠道。其他渠道,我們比較謹慎。

  • Freestanding stores performed strongly for us in the first quarter. And we expect in recovery markets that freestanding stores will continue to perform well. So we will continue, obviously, to supply our freestanding store network. Where both ourselves as well as our retailers are a little bit more cautious on some of the traffic trends that are being anticipated, we are being a bit more cautious in terms of how we supply those retailers.

    獨立式商店在第一季度對我們來說表現強勁。我們預計,在復蘇市場中,獨立式商店將繼續表現良好。因此,顯然,我們將繼續提供我們的獨立商店網絡。在我們自己和我們的零售商對一些預期的流量趨勢更加謹慎的情況下,我們在如何供應這些零售商方面更加謹慎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • Tracey, maybe just a follow-up on the pricing and inflation question. Can you just give us a little bit more detail on some of the sources of inflation and what's been incremental, I guess, since the start of the fiscal year? And maybe a little bit of an expectation as you see it today is, you continue to see that rising. Is that going to be a factor as we go into fiscal '24? Just trying to get a sense of how we should be thinking about continued inflation as we go through the balance of the year.

    特蕾西,也許只是對定價和通貨膨脹問題的跟進。您能否詳細介紹一下通貨膨脹的一些來源以及自本財政年度開始以來的增量?也許你今天看到的一點期望是,你會繼續看到它在上升。這會成為我們進入 24 財年的一個因素嗎?只是想了解在我們度過今年餘下的時間時,我們應該如何考慮持續通脹。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think we certainly have seen quite a bit of inflation in our supply chain, particularly as it relates to transport. We do see that continuing in parts of our supply chain. In other parts, we actually see it moderating. We've seen wage inflation as well. And again, that has been incorporated in some of the pricing that we've anticipated this year.

    是的。我認為我們的供應鏈中確實出現了相當多的通貨膨脹,尤其是與運輸有關的通貨膨脹。我們確實看到這種情況在我們的部分供應鏈中繼續存在。在其他部分,我們實際上看到它正在緩和。我們也看到了工資上漲。同樣,這已包含在我們今年預期的一些定價中。

  • We have seen advertising rates stabilize a bit, and so we're not seeing as much media inflation as we were seeing previously. So those are, I would say, the biggest areas of inflation that we're watching. But the supply chain area is one that is a particular focus for us going forward. And again, one of the great things about our category, we do have pricing power. And so we have certainly exercised that where we see the inflationary impacts.

    我們已經看到廣告費率有點穩定,所以我們沒有看到像以前看到的那樣多的媒體通脹。因此,我想說,這些是我們正在觀察的最大通脹領域。但供應鏈領域是我們未來特別關注的領域。再說一次,我們品類的一大優點是,我們確實有定價權。因此,我們當然已經在我們看到通貨膨脹影響的地方行使了這一點。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • And I just want to add that we continue to remain what we -- the same point of view we expressed the last quarter, which is we are in a position to offset most of the inflations with pricing, and we are doing that. The other thing, however, which is emerge stronger in this last quarter is the currency. So the dollar has become even stronger.

    我只想補充一點,我們將繼續保持我們在上個季度表達的相同觀點,即我們能夠通過定價來抵消大部分通貨膨脹,我們正在這樣做。然而,在最後一個季度表現強勁的另一件事是貨幣。因此,美元變得更加堅挺。

  • And so now we are also looking with the next consideration of possible price increases in January, February to see if in selective markets where there is also a big pressure of currency, not only of inflation, we can also make some selective adjustments in these areas.

    所以現在我們也在考慮下一次考慮1月、2月可能的價格上漲,看看在貨幣壓力也很大的選擇性市場中,不僅是通貨膨脹,我們也可以在這些領域進行一些選擇性的調整.

  • But our goals remain to offset most of the price -- most of the inflation repricing, and then the rest, we are doing things like, for example, our innovation has been higher price on average and focused well on protecting gross margin, our cost savings, and many of our cost activity are contributing to covering the overall impact of inflations. So we believe we are and we will be in good shape in that sense.

    但我們的目標仍然是抵消大部分價格——大部分通貨膨脹重新定價,然後是其餘的,我們正在做的事情,例如,我們的創新一直是平均價格更高,並專注於保護毛利率,我們的成本節省,我們的許多成本活動都有助於彌補通貨膨脹的整體影響。因此,我們相信我們是,並且在這個意義上我們將處於良好狀態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question will be from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer.

    下一個問題將來自奧本海默的 Rupesh Parikh。

  • Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So in China, I was curious if you can just give some additional color in terms of what you're seeing on the ground today in both the Mainland and the Hainan corridor. And as you think about the China recovery, do you essentially assume a return to more normal conditions by Q4? Is that the way to think about it?

    所以在中國,我很好奇你能否就你今天在大陸和海南走廊的地面上看到的情況提供一些額外的顏色。當您考慮中國的複蘇時,您是否基本上假設到第四季度會恢復到更正常的狀態?是這樣想的嗎?

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. In China, our assumption, as I said before, is that there will be a gradual recovery from the restrictions. And with the gradual recovery with the restriction, we will see increased traffic in Hainan and in the brick-and-mortar in domestic China. So those are the 2 key things that needs to evolve because retail growth overall is positive, and it's interesting that retail growth overall is stronger than the economy, the way the economy is being communicated.

    是的。正如我之前所說,在中國,我們的假設是會逐漸從限制中恢復過來。隨著限制措施的逐步恢復,我們將看到海南和中國國內實體店的客流量增加。因此,這些是需要發展的兩個關鍵因素,因為總體零售增長是積極的,有趣的是,總體零售增長強於經濟,這是經濟傳播的方式。

  • So the phenomenon that is historically proven, that beauty prestige industry grows, on average, more than the economy, and then we grow on average more than the beauty industry is, that trend is what we believe will continue to happen in the future. And it's happening as we speak. However, the traffic movements are very different.

    因此,歷史證明的現像是,美妝行業的平均增長速度超過了經濟,然後我們的平均增長速度超過了美妝行業,我們相信這種趨勢將在未來繼續發生。就在我們說話的時候,它正在發生。然而,交通運動是非常不同的。

  • And again, to clarify what, I think, the prepared remarks should have clarified in detail, but take the Hainan situation. Hainan traffic -- the last time, Hainan traffic was, if you want, regular, was January, February, last January, February, where it was full normal traffic. Then after the first lockdown, went down 80%. And then in July, recovered and went to minus 30.

    再次澄清一下,我認為準備好的言論應該詳細澄清,但以海南的情況為例。海南交通——上一次,海南交通是正常的,如果你願意的話,是一月,二月,去年一月,二月,那裡是完全正常的交通。然後在第一次鎖定之後,下跌了 80%。然後在 7 月,恢復並降到了負 30。

  • And there was the assumption that this traffic over time would continue to go well. But then on the contrary, now is, in October, we're still minus 70 again. So basically, it's the expectation of future traffic that make the inventories presence too high for that level of traffic and need to be readjusted. And the second factor is that traffic at minus 70 is obviously much less than what originally was expected and also in terms of consumption.

    並且假設隨著時間的推移,這種流量將繼續保持良好狀態。但相反,現在是 10 月,我們仍然是負 70。因此,基本上,對未來流量的預期使得庫存存在對於該流量水平來說太高並且需要重新調整。第二個因素是負70的流量顯然比最初預期的要少得多,在消費方面也是如此。

  • But on the other side, there is more consumption online. There is more growth online. There is people that are going through channels. So in total, we have seen, as I said before, a mid-single-digit growth even in this tough situation with reduced traffic levels. So when the traffic will recover in brick-and-mortar, both in travel and in domestic, when this will happen, the retail should further improve, further increase and be pretty positive.

    但另一方面,線上消費更多。在線增長更多。有些人正在通過渠道。所以總的來說,正如我之前所說,即使在交通水平下降的艱難情況下,我們也看到了中個位數的增長。因此,當實體店的客流量恢復時,無論是旅遊還是國內,當這種情況發生時,零售業應該會進一步改善、進一步增加並且相當積極。

  • And we do assume that this phenomenon will be more visible in our quarter 4. So in the April, June period is when we assume there will be a rebuild of traffic. And that between now and then, as we explained, will be -- we don't see a lot of improvements in quarter 2, but we then see a start of gradual improvement also in quarter 3. That's the dynamic we are seeing.

    我們確實假設這種現像在我們的第 4 季度會更加明顯。因此,在 4 月和 6 月期間,我們假設流量將會重建。正如我們所解釋的那樣,從現在到那時,我們在第 2 季度看不到很多改進,但我們隨後在第 3 季度也看到了逐漸改善的開始。這就是我們所看到的動態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will be from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題將來自高盛的 Jason English。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • I'm going to rapid fire a couple of questions. First, to put a fine point on to the answer to that last question, the exit rate for the year, are you assuming that Hainan is like back to bright running at normal traffic, down 30, down 50? If you can clarify that. I get sequential improvement, but to what level is still uncertain?

    我將快速提出幾個問題。首先,為了回答最後一個問題,今年的退出率,您是否假設海南就像在正常交通下恢復正常運行一樣,下降30,下降50?如果你能澄清這一點。我得到了連續的改進,但到什麼水平仍然不確定?

  • Second question, is Europe the next shoe to drop like in terms of destocking? And then lastly, you have multiyear plans. I'm not asking for multiyear guidance. But as you think about like what you thought your earnings power may be in fiscal '24, fiscal '25, how has that changed in light of all the dynamics that you're discussing today?

    第二個問題,在去庫存方面,歐洲是下一個下降的鞋子嗎?最後,你有多年計劃。我不是要求多年指導。但是,當您考慮到您認為 24 財年和 25 財年的盈利能力時,鑑於您今天討論的所有動態,這種情況發生了怎樣的變化?

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • So let me start, Jason. In terms of Hainan, no, we don't anticipate that Hainan will be fully back to normal in Q4. Much improved, but not fully back to normal. And so we are now looking at fiscal '24 for traffic to recover. And again, it's a guesstimate at this point in time.

    讓我開始吧,傑森。就海南而言,不,我們預計海南不會在第四季度完全恢復正常。改善很多,但還沒有完全恢復正常。因此,我們現在正在尋找 24 財年的交通恢復。再說一次,這是在這個時間點上的一個猜測。

  • So the recovery, obviously, has been slower than I think all of us have anticipated, but we do know that there is a commitment by the retailers in Hainan and certainly the area in general to get back to fantastic growth. They just opened a new mall, so it is still an exciting travel destination, and we look forward to the recovery. But it is not fully recovered in our Q4 thoughts right now or fiscal '24.

    因此,復甦顯然比我認為我們所有人都預期的要慢,但我們確實知道海南的零售商以及整個地區都承諾恢復驚人的增長。他們剛剛開了一個新的商場,所以它仍然是一個令人興奮的旅遊目的地,我們期待著復甦。但在我們現在或 24 財年的第四季度想法中,它還沒有完全恢復。

  • In terms of Europe, Europe, as we said in our prepared remarks, is recovering. And so we have seen strong growth in Europe, particularly in emerging markets in Europe. We are seeing makeup recover. We're seeing strong fragrance growth. And the one category that has been a bit slower really in all of our markets has been skin care, but we've got strong innovation in the second half of the year and certainly into fiscal '24 that we believe will accelerate our skin care growth.

    就歐洲而言,正如我們在準備好的講話中所說,歐洲正在復蘇。因此,我們看到了歐洲的強勁增長,尤其是在歐洲的新興市場。我們看到化妝品正在恢復。我們看到了強勁的香水增長。在我們所有的市場中,真正放緩的一個類別是護膚品,但我們在下半年取得了強勁的創新,肯定會進入 24 財年,我們相信這將加速我們的護膚品增長.

  • But right now, we do not believe that there are any reasons to be concerned about Europe. Obviously, everyone has been talking about a European recession. But I think as many have talked about, and we would say the same, we're not seeing it yet. So that's Europe.

    但目前,我們認為沒有任何理由擔心歐洲。顯然,每個人都在談論歐洲經濟衰退。但我認為正如許多人所談論的那樣,我們會說同樣的話,我們還沒有看到它。這就是歐洲。

  • As it relates to fiscal '24, when you think about this year, really the biggest -- one of the biggest impacts we've had outside of the disruptions in terms of travel retail has been currency. And so our fiscal '24 is dependent on in terms of what we thought before will be impacted by what happens with currency.

    由於它與 24 財年有關,當您考慮今年時,實際上最大的——我們在旅遊零售方面的中斷之外產生的最大影響之一就是貨幣。因此,我們的 24 財年取決於我們之前認為的會受到貨幣變化的影響。

  • And one of the things that we talked about as well in the prepared remarks, some of our currency impact is adjusted out in our constant currency results and guidance, and some of it is not as it relates to travel retail in particular. And that's a big amount. So as you're looking at our margins and the significant impact on our margins, currency is an impact on our margins. So depending on what happens with currency rates, that influences our outlook for fiscal '24.

    我們在準備好的評論中也談到了其中一件事,我們的一些貨幣影響在我們的恆定貨幣結果和指導中進行了調整,其中一些與旅遊零售特別無關。這是一個很大的數目。因此,當您查看我們的利潤率以及對我們利潤率的重大影響時,貨幣對我們的利潤率有影響。因此,取決於匯率的變化,這會影響我們對 24 財年的展望。

  • But most importantly, Jason, as it relates to the fundamental health of our business, once these disruptions are behind us, we still are -- feel very strong about, obviously, the strategies that we executed throughout the last couple of years, this temporary impact, and how we have prepared the business for future growth. We're opening a new production and R&D facility in Asia that will reduce some of the transport issues. By the way, it will reduce some of the currency issues as well.

    但最重要的是,傑森,因為它關係到我們業務的基本健康,一旦這些中斷過去了,我們仍然——顯然,我們對過去幾年執行的策略感到非常強烈,這種暫時的影響,以及我們如何為未來的增長做好準備。我們正在亞洲開設一個新的生產和研發設施,這將減少一些運輸問題。順便說一句,它也會減少一些貨幣問題。

  • And so there are many things that we've done over the last few years that have really strengthened our business once we emerge from the disruption that has been extended unfortunately this year, and our teams are managing through with fantastic resiliency. And we are, as Fabrizio indicated, incredibly proud of all of them and what they've been doing to support the business.

    因此,我們在過去幾年中所做的許多事情確實加強了我們的業務,一旦我們擺脫了今年不幸延長的中斷,我們的團隊正在以驚人的彈性進行管理。正如 Fabrizio 所說,我們為他們所有人以及他們為支持業務所做的一切感到無比自豪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes our question-and-answer session. If you were unable to join the entire call, a playback will be available at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today through November 16. To hear a recording of the call, please dial 877-344-7529; pass code number 9985405.

    非常感謝你們,女士們,先生們。我們的問答環節到此結束。如果您無法加入整個通話,則可以在下午 1 點播放。東部時間今天到 11 月 16 日。要收聽電話錄音,請撥打 877-344-7529;密碼號碼 9985405。

  • That concludes today's Estée Lauder conference call. I would like to thank you all for your participation and wish you all a good day. Take care.

    今天的雅詩蘭黛電話會議到此結束。我要感謝大家的參與,祝大家有個美好的一天。小心。