雅詩蘭黛 (EL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

總裁兼執行長 Fabrizio Freda 和財務長 Tracey Travis 討論了該公司強勁的第三季業績,包括有機淨銷售額成長 6%。他們對 2024 財年下半年的強勁成長充滿信心,並計劃加速銷售和利潤成長。

該公司專注於永續發展舉措,並因其努力而獲得認可。儘管中國大陸面臨挑戰,該公司仍對未來的成長機會持樂觀態度。他們也在北美和英國重新推出倩碧,並計劃進行全球擴張。

公司將在8月就利潤恢復計畫提供更多指引。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Estee Lauder Companies' Fiscal 2024 Third Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and webcast.

    大家好,歡迎參加雅詩蘭黛公司 2024 財年第三季電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音並進行網路直播。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • For opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Rainey Mancini. Ma'am, you may begin.

    對於開場白和介紹,我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Rainey Mancini 女士。女士,您可以開始了。

  • Laraine A. Mancini - SVP of IR

    Laraine A. Mancini - SVP of IR

  • Hello. On today's call are Fabrizio Freda, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Travis, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Since many of our results today contain forward-looking statements, let me refer you to our press release and our reports filed with the SEC, where you'll find factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. To facilitate the discussion of our underlying business, the commentary on our financial results and expectations is before restructuring and other charges and adjustments disclosed in our press release.

    你好。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Fabrizio Freda;崔西‧崔維斯(Tracey Travis),執行副總裁兼財務長。由於我們今天的許多結果都包含前瞻性陳述,請讓我向您推薦我們的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告,您會發現可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素。為了便於討論我們的基礎業務,對我們的財務表現和預期的評論是在我們的新聞稿中披露的重組和其他費用和調整之前進行的。

  • Unless otherwise stated, all organic net sales growth also excludes the noncomparable impacts of acquisitions, divestitures, brand closures and the impact of foreign currency translation. You can find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on the Investors section of our website. As a reminder, reference to online sales include sales that we make directly to our consumers, through our brand.com sites and through third-party platforms. It also includes estimated sales of our products through our retailers' websites.

    除非另有說明,所有有機淨銷售額成長也不包括收購、剝離、品牌關閉的不可比影響以及外幣換算的影響。您可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者部分找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整表。提醒一下,線上銷售包括我們透過 Brand.com 網站和第三方平台直接向消費者進行的銷售。它還包括我們的產品透過我們的零售商網站的估計銷售額。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • And now I'll turn the call over to Fabrizio.

    現在我將把電話轉給法布里齊奧。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Rainey, and hello to everyone. We are pleased to be with you today to review our third quarter results and discuss our strategic initiatives. For the third quarter, we delivered organic sales growth of 6% at the high end of our outlook, exceeded expectations for profitability and continued to significantly improve working capital.

    謝謝你,雷尼,大家好。我們很高興今天與您一起回顧我們第三季的業績並討論我們的策略舉措。第三季度,我們實現了 6% 的有機銷售成長,超出了盈利預期,並繼續顯著改善營運資本。

  • We achieved stronger-than-anticipated performance beginning with gross margin. Results benefited from a greater-than-expected mix of skin care. Moreover, we made great strides in reducing the pressure on excess and obsolescence, driven by our now lower inventory levels and in realizing strategic pricing.

    我們從毛利率開始就實現了強於預期的業績。結果得益於超出預期的皮膚護理組合。此外,在庫存水準較低和實現策略定價的推動下,我們在減少過剩和過時的壓力方面取得了長足進步。

  • Further contributing to the outperformance, we manage expenses with discipline across multiple areas of the business and have shifted certain advertising spending to the fourth quarter to support our rich innovation pipeline and expanded consumer reach.

    我們在多個業務領域嚴格管理支出,並將某些廣告支出轉移到第四季度,以支持我們豐富的創新管道和擴大的消費者覆蓋範圍,這進一步推動了我們的卓越表現。

  • Encouragingly, with our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook, we are confident that the second half of fiscal year 2024 will indeed prove to be an inflection point for the company, representing a renewed sales and profit growth trajectory.

    令人鼓舞的是,根據我們的第三季業績和第四季展望,我們相信 2024 財年下半年確實將成為公司的轉捩點,代表著新的銷售和利潤成長軌跡。

  • First, momentum in organic sales growth is primed to accelerate in the fourth quarter for a strong second half. Second, we continue to expect operating margin in the second half of fiscal year 2024 to be higher than the first half and to expand from the year ago period.

    首先,有機銷售成長動能預計在第四季度加速,下半年實現強勁成長。其次,我們繼續預期 2024 財年下半年的營業利潤率將高於上半年,並較去年同期擴大。

  • Third, with a profit recovery plan designed to deliver $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion of incremental operating profit in fiscal year 2025 and 2026, we are well positioned to rebuild our profitability. And with the profit recovery plan also expected to generate savings to reinvest in our brands and consumer-facing initiatives.

    第三,我們制定了利潤恢復計劃,旨在 2025 和 2026 財年實現 11 億至 14 億美元的增量營運利潤,我們已做好重建盈利能力的準備。透過利潤恢復計劃,預計還將節省資金,用於對我們的品牌和消費者導向的舉措進行再投資。

  • We are well positioned to accelerate sustainable sales and profit growth as a faster and leaner organization with stronger leverage from our future growth. During the third quarter, we accomplished much to solidify the inflection point of the second half.

    作為一個更快、更精簡的組織,我們有能力加速永續的銷售和利潤成長,並從未來的成長中獲得更強的槓桿作用。第三節我們取得了很大的成績,鞏固了下半場的轉折點。

  • Indeed, we made progress in achieving targeted trade inventory levels in Asia travel retail. We are encouraged by the evolution of our Asia travel retail business this fiscal year as we execute our priority to reduce trade inventory in alignment with retailers and effort by various local authorities to contain a structured market activity.

    事實上,我們在實現亞洲旅遊零售目標貿易庫存水準方面取得了進展。我們對本財年亞洲旅遊零售業務的發展感到鼓舞,因為我們與零售商一起執行減少貿易庫存的優先事項,並與各地方當局努力遏制結構化的市場活動。

  • And retail sales growth in Asia travel retail significantly improved sequentially, returning to growth in the third quarter. This improving retail sales trend in Asia travel retail complemented double-digit retail sales growth we continue to see in EMEA and the Americas travel retail.

    亞洲旅遊零售業的零售額成長較上季顯著改善,第三季恢復成長。亞洲旅遊零售業的零售成長趨勢與我們在歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲旅遊零售業持續看到的兩位數零售額成長相輔相成。

  • So far this fiscal year, we also invested in the long-term growth opportunities of traveling consumers, evidenced by our brands having moved within Hainan Sanya International Duty Free Shopping Complex, to the Galleria's new Global Beauty Plaza.

    本財年到目前為止,我們也投資於旅遊消費者的長期成長機會,我們的品牌已從海南三亞國際免稅購物中心遷至Galleria新的環球美容廣場。

  • The larger elegant new stores expands upon the high-touch services and experiences that we offered at the previous locations in the complex from Estée Lauder Re-Nutriv new Skin Longevity Institute to La Mer cabin offering bespoke Spa services and KILIAN PARIS juice and cocktail bar featuring fragrance inspire cocktails.

    更大、優雅的新店擴展了我們在綜合大樓內以前的地點提供的高接觸服務和體驗,從雅詩蘭黛 Re-Nutriv 新皮膚長壽研究所到 La Mer 小屋,提供定制水療服務以及 KILIAN PARIS 果汁和雞尾酒酒吧以香味激發雞尾酒的靈感。

  • We also made great progress in advancing strategic initiatives and launching exciting innovation to fuel North America, reaccelerate growth in Mainland China and drive momentum in markets that are strong across developed and emerging markets in Asia Pacific, EMEA and Latin America.

    我們在推動策略性舉措和推出令人興奮的創新方面也取得了巨大進展,以推動北美地區的發展,重新加速中國大陸的成長,並推動亞太地區、歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲已開發市場和新興市場的強勁勢頭。

  • Let me begin with Clinique, where we had a robust quarter of progress as the brands double down on its authentic dermatologists brand heritage. Clinique deepened its relationship with the medical community, returning to the American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting with high impact engagements. The brand also established the Clinique dermatologist creator council, a collection of doctors who are amplifying the sharing of science and dermatological insights on their own social channels as well as informing Clinique narrative on its social platforms. Impressively, Clinique influence earned media value for skin care in the U.S. showed 80% during the quarter, leaping 33 spots in rank.

    讓我從倩碧開始,我們在這個季度取得了強勁的進展,因為這些品牌加倍了其真正的皮膚科醫生品牌傳統。倩碧加深了與醫學界的關係,以高影響力的活動重返美國皮膚病學會年會。該品牌還成立了倩碧皮膚科醫生創建者委員會,該委員會由一群醫生組成,他們在自己的社交管道上擴大科學和皮膚病學見解的分享,並在其社交平台上宣傳倩碧的故事。令人印象深刻的是,本季倩碧在美國護膚領域的影響力贏得媒體價值達 80%,排名躍升 33 位。

  • We believe this is just the beginning of the success Clinique will realized by communicating its dermatological education and clinically proven solution for skin care to make up. Moreover, having started with Clinique in March, we are thrilled to be strategically expanding our consumer reach in the U.S. as a select few brands will open dedicated storefronts in Amazon's fast-growing premium beauty store over the coming months.

    我們相信,這只是倩碧透過傳播其皮膚病學教育和經過臨床驗證的皮膚護理解決方案而取得成功的開始。此外,自從三月開始與倩碧合作以來,我們很高興能夠策略性地擴大我們在美國的消費者影響力,因為一些精選品牌將在未來幾個月內在亞馬遜快速成長的優質美容店開設專門店面。

  • Clinique's launched capitalized on its renewed dermatologists-guided branding with striking creative assets and elevated storytelling. Impressively, Clinique store has exceeded our retail sales expectations so far and already contributed in March to the brand's share gains in U.S. prestige skin care biggest subcategory of moisturizers among others, as well as in U.S. prestige makeup.

    倩碧的推出充分利用了其以皮膚科醫生為主導的全新品牌形象,具有引人注目的創意資產和更高的故事講述能力。令人印象深刻的是,到目前為止,倩碧專賣店的零售額已經超出了我們的預期,並且已經在3 月份為該品牌在美國高端護膚品(保濕霜等最大子類別)以及美國高端彩妝領域的份額增長做出了貢獻。

  • We also successfully accelerated our innovation in the quarter. For the Estée Lauder brand, we brought to market breakthrough innovation across franchises. For its luxury Re-Nutriv franchise, the brand was inspired by its over 15 years of skin longevity research with its new Ultimate Diamond Transformative Brilliance Soft Crème and serum cream foundation. The impact of these launches is powerful, beyond contributing to the brand growth, they firmly established Re-Nutriv as a leader in the science of skin longevity, a visible age reversal.

    我們在本季也成功加速了創新。對於雅詩蘭黛品牌,我們為市場帶來了跨特許經營的突破性創新。對於其奢華的 Re-Nutriv 特許經營權,該品牌的靈感來自其超過 15 年的皮膚長壽研究,推出了全新的 Ultimate Diamond Transformative Brilliance Soft Crème 和精華霜粉底。這些產品的推出產生了強大的影響力,除了促進品牌發展之外,它們還牢牢確立了 Re-Nutriv 作為皮膚長壽科學(即明顯的年齡逆轉)領域的領導者的地位。

  • For Estée Lauder Supreme franchise, the brand leveraged its decades of night repair expertise and collagen research with the new revitalizing Supreme night bounce creme first launched to great reviews in Asia Pacific and expanding globally in the coming months. We believe this launch holds great promise serving to strengthen the brand leadership in night-time science and skin care across subcategories.

    對於雅詩蘭黛Supreme 系列,該品牌利用其數十年的夜間修復專業知識和膠原蛋白研究,推出了全新的煥活Supreme 夜間彈力霜,該霜首次在亞太地區推出,獲得了好評,並將在未來幾個月向全球擴張。我們相信,此次推出具有廣闊的前景,有助於加強夜間科學和皮膚護理領域的品牌領導地位。

  • La Mer extended its winning streak of innovation with the Moisturizing Fresh Cream, which along with its Icon hero products drove the brand to be the strongest contribution to the company growth for the quarter. Beyond these strategic innovations and go-to-market activations across active derma, longevity, night skin care, M·A·C introduced newness in makeup to jump start our rich innovation pipeline in the category for the second half.

    海藍之謎 (La Mer) 透過保濕鮮奶油 (Moisturizing Fresh Cream) 延續了其創新連勝的勢頭,該產品與其標誌性英雄產品一起推動該品牌成為本季度公司增長的最強勁貢獻者。除了活性真皮、長壽、夜間護膚等領域的策略創新和上市活動之外,M·A·C 還推出了彩妝新品,以啟動我們下半年在該類別中豐富的創新管道。

  • M·A·C launched M·A·Cximal silky matte lipstick to greater claim, successfully modernizing its Icon M·A·C lipstick with nourishing ingredients and bolder packaging. From Seoul to Berlin to New York City, M·A·Cximal pop up events drove strong engagement and earned media value.

    M·A·C 推出 M·A·Cximal 絲滑霧面唇膏,以滋養成分和更大膽的包裝成功現代化其 Icon M·A·C 唇膏。從首爾到柏林再到紐約,M·A·Cximal 快閃活動帶動了強烈的參與並贏得了媒體價值。

  • M·A·C remastered studio fixed fluid foundation came to market in April delivering a new soft matte finish enhanced with new skincare ingredients at even more shades. This high sought innovation and its icon prove the enduring love of M·A·C with consumers and makeup artists alike as the brand celebrates its 40 years in 2024.

    M·A·C 重新製作的工作室固定粉底液於 4 月上市,提供全新的柔和霧面妝效,並添加更多色調的新護膚成分。在 2024 年慶祝品牌成立 40 週年之際,這一備受追捧的創新及其標誌證明了消費者和化妝師對 M·A·C 持久的喜愛。

  • Looking at fragrances. Over the last couple of months, we have expanded our consumer reach in the high-potential Asia Pacific region, opening spectacular flagship stores for Jo Malone London and Le Labo each unique with locally relevant features. And we are incredibly excited for the evolution in luxury and artisanal fragrances as together with Valmont we introduced Valmont Beauty this September.

    看著香水。在過去的幾個月裡,我們擴大了在高潛力亞太地區的消費者覆蓋範圍,為 Jo Malone London 和 Le Labo 開設了壯觀的旗艦店,每一家都具有當地特色。我們對奢華和手工香水的發展感到非常興奮,今年九月我們與 Valmont 一起推出了 Valmont Beauty。

  • Across our brands and around the world, we are focused on leveraging technology, including AI in support of our enduring strengths and high-touch experiences and high-quality products. We continue to partner with leading technology companies from Microsoft with whom we are collaborating to embed AI to drive faster speed to market and local relevance to Google Cloud as we strive to enhance customized targeting of media at scale.

    在我們的品牌和世界各地,我們專注於利用人工智慧等技術來支援我們的持久優勢、高觸感體驗和高品質產品。我們繼續與微軟領先的科技公司合作,共同嵌入人工智慧,以加快上市速度並提高與Google雲端的本地相關性,同時我們努力大規模增強媒體的客製化定位。

  • Turning to the regions. We have spoken about our focus on driving the momentum in markets which are strong. To that end, we have delivered terrific results across many markets, reflecting the desirability of our brands, a compelling innovation, which I described and strong go-to-market execution.

    轉向地區。我們已經談到我們致力於推動強勁市場的發展動能。為此,我們在許多市場上取得了出色的成果,反映出我們品牌的吸引力、我所描述的引人注目的創新以及強大的市場執行力。

  • We see this across our developed and emerging markets around the world. Beginning in Asia Pacific, Hong Kong, SAR, Japan have prospered, up double-digit organically in the quarter and year-to-date and we are excited about what's to come, including the launch of The Ordinary in Japan during the fourth quarter.

    我們在全球已開發市場和新興市場都看到了這一點。從亞太地區開始,香港特別行政區和日本蓬勃發展,本季和年初至今實現了兩位數的有機成長,我們對即將發生的事情感到興奮,包括第四季度在日本推出 The Ordinary。

  • Moving to EMEA. Germany and Italy have consistently contributed to growth in the markets of the region each quarter. Mexico, Brazil and India strong double-digit growth in the third quarter, fueled excellent performance in our emerging markets year-to-date. For North America, we delivered sequentially improved organic sales trends in the third quarter driven by the multi-facet strategic plan we first discussed with you in August. We are pleased with the results we are seeing in our areas of strategic focus.

    搬到歐洲、中東和非洲地區。德國和義大利每季都對該地區市場的成長做出了貢獻。墨西哥、巴西和印度第三季實現了兩位數的強勁成長,推動了我們新興市場今年迄今的出色表現。對於北美地區,在我們八月份首次與您討論的多方面戰略計劃的推動下,我們在第三季度實現了有機銷售趨勢的連續改善。我們對策略重點領域所取得的成果感到滿意。

  • Skin Care grew organically in North America for the third consecutive quarter driven by Estée Lauder and The Ordinary as hero products, innovation and go-to-market activation excelled. Our luxury and [artisanal] fragrances rose double digits organically one more fueled by Jo Malone London, KILIAN PARIS and Tom Ford. Across our brand portfolio in North America, we are realizing success as we focus on deepening consumer engagement on social platforms where so much discovery in beauty take place.

    在雅詩蘭黛 (Estée Lauder) 和 The Ordinary 的推動下,北美護膚品業務連續第三個季度實現有機增長,作為英雄產品、創新和市場推廣表現出色。在 Jo Malone London、KILIAN PARIS 和 Tom Ford 的推動下,我們的奢華和[手工]香水有機增長了兩位數。在我們北美的品牌組合中,我們正在取得成功,因為我們專注於加深消費者在社交平台上的參與,在這些平台上有如此多的美麗發現。

  • The Ordinary has long been a pioneer with an outstanding social engine and more of our brands have enhanced their engagement with consumers this year. We are also successfully expanding our consumer reach to better serve new consumers from Clinique's new storefront in the U.S. Amazon Premium Beauty store to expansions early this fiscal year as the Estée Lauder brand entered into more Ulta Beauty stores and KILIAN PARIS entered into additional Sephora stores. For Clinique as the #1 dermatology beauty brand in the U.S. Prestige, we are optimistic for the positive impact its launch on the U.S. Amazon Premium Beauty store will have for the fourth quarter in the initial performance in March.

    The Ordinary 長期以來一直是擁有出色社交引擎的先驅,今年我們的更多品牌增強了與消費者的互動。我們也成功擴大了我們的消費者覆蓋範圍,以更好地服務新消費者,從倩碧在美國亞馬遜高級美容店的新店面到本財年初的擴張,雅詩蘭黛品牌進入了更多的Ulta Beauty 商店, KILIAN PARIS 進入了更多的絲芙蘭店。對於倩碧作為美國Prestige排名第一的皮膚科美容品牌,我們對其在美國亞馬遜高級美容店的推出將在3月份的初步業績中對第四季度產生的積極影響持樂觀態度。

  • For Mainland China, we returned to organic sales growth, albeit at a slower pace than expected amid an overall soft prestige beauty industry. Retail sales for prestige beauty were strong in January, but moderated in February and March, due in part to the Chinese New Year coinciding with Valentine Day this year, which limited gifting. This certainly impacted the industry but also many of our brands, which have a strong presence in gifting.

    在中國大陸,我們恢復了有機銷售成長,儘管在整體信譽不佳的美容行業中成長低於預期。高檔美容產品的零售額在 1 月份表現強勁,但在 2 月和 3 月出現放緩,部分原因是今年農曆新年恰逢情人節,禮品贈送受到限制。這無疑影響了整個產業,也影響了我們在禮品領域擁有強大影響力的許多品牌。

  • Our focus remains bringing irresistible newness to consumers to best create growth opportunities. Here, our innovation in Estée Lauder Re-Nutriv and Supreme franchise as well as a La Mer and M·A·C were well received across the third quarter, and we have more compelling launches in the fourth quarter.

    我們的重點仍然是為消費者帶來不可抗拒的新鮮感,以最好地創造成長機會。在這裡,我們在雅詩蘭黛 Re-Nutriv 和 Supreme 專營權以及 La Mer 和 M·A·C 方面的創新在第三季度廣受好評,並且我們在第四季度推出了更多引人注目的產品。

  • One in particular from Estée Lauder Perfectionist Pro franchise is especially exciting as it is among the first product created in our China innovation labs and addresses local demand for SPF 50 plus UV protection that is suitable for sensitive and post [derm] procedures skin.

    尤其是來自雅詩蘭黛Perfectionist Pro 特許經營權的一款產品尤其令人興奮,因為它是我們中國創新實驗室開發的首批產品之一,滿足了當地對SPF 50 加紫外線防護的需求,適合敏感和[真皮]手術後皮膚。

  • With a 4 quarter innovation pipeline is standing upon the innovation launch throughout the third quarter, and the key shopping moments of 618 are coming, we are increasing our investment in advertising, a go-to-market activation to sustain retail. Since we spoke with you in February, we also made important progress in all work streams across the pillar of the profit recovery plan, of which I'm pleased to share a few examples with you today.

    隨著第四季的創新管道即將到來,整個第三季的創新啟動即將到來,而且618的關鍵購物時刻即將到來,我們正在增加對廣告的投資,這是維持零售的行銷活動。自從我們二月與您交談以來,我們在利潤恢復計劃支柱的所有工作流程中也取得了重要進展,我今天很高興與您分享一些例子。

  • For one, our integrated business planning process, which has now rolled out globally, is contributing to operational inventory improvements. Our enterprise-wide integrated business planning will serve as the foundation to drive better demand planning and reduce excess enable obsolescence.

    其一,我們的綜合業務規劃流程現已在全球推廣,有助於改善營運庫存。我們的企業範圍內的整合業務規劃將成為推動更好的需求規劃和減少過量啟用報廢的基礎。

  • It is complemented by advanced planning technologies, including AI, to statistically elevate forecast accuracy, a dynamically positioned and deploy inventories. We have refined and optimized our innovation pipeline for fiscal year 2025 and '26 to best focus on accretive innovation, bringing to market products that both creates and drive trends locally and globally across categories. Innovation in fiscal year 2025 is still expected to be even bigger and stronger than in fiscal year 2024 with more breakthrough innovation and expansion into white space opportunities.

    它輔以先進的規劃技術,包括人工智慧,以統計方式提高預測準確性、動態定位和部署庫存。我們完善並優化了 2025 財年和 26 財年的創新管道,以最大程度地專注於增值創新,將能夠創造和推動本地和全球跨類別趨勢的產品推向市場。預計 2025 財年的創新仍將比 2024 財年更大、更強,出現更多突破性創新並拓展空白領域機會。

  • We also announced plans to streamline manufacturing and distribution on a campus through realigning ship schedules, consolidating operations into fewer buildings and shifting powder manufacturing to a trusted third-party partners. This strategic initiative accomplished multiple objectives. As in addition to consolidating capacity and optimizing costs, we also expect greater speed to market by leveraging more external innovation with a global leader in powder.

    我們還宣布了計劃,透過重新調整船期、將業務整合到更少的建築物中以及將粉末製造轉移給值得信賴的第三方合作夥伴,來簡化園區內的製造和分銷。這項策略舉措實現了多個目標。除了整合產能和優化成本之外,我們還期望透過與全球粉末產業領導者合作,利用更多外部創新來加快上市速度。

  • Before I close, I want to speak to the exciting milestones in our brand portfolio during the fourth quarter. First, a few days ago marked the 1-year anniversary of our Tom Ford acquisition, this transformational deal where we evolved from licensees of Tom Ford Beauty to the owner and licensor of Tom Ford solidified a coveted brand in the company luxury portfolio for the long term and created a new royalty revenue stream.

    在結束之前,我想談談第四季度我們品牌組合中令人興奮的里程碑。首先,幾天前是我們收購Tom Ford 的一周年紀念日,透過這項轉型性交易,我們從Tom Ford Beauty 的授權商發展成為Tom Ford 的所有者和授權商,長期鞏固了公司奢侈品組合中令人垂涎的品牌術語並創造了新的版稅收入來源。

  • Moreover, it afforded us strategic synergies which we are now unlocking demonstrated by the recent launch of brand.com in the U.S. and U.K. as just 1 example. And with the Ermenegildo Zegna Group and Marcolin, we are capitalizing on the power of the brand modern luxury glimmer across fashion, eye-wear and beauty, connecting these 3 verticals in compelling new ways to drive growth.

    此外,它為我們提供了戰略協同效應,我們現在正在釋放這種協同效應,最近在美國和英國推出的brand.com就是一個例子。與 Ermenegildo Zegna 集團和 Marcolin 合作,我們正在利用該品牌在時尚、眼鏡和美容領域的現代奢華光芒的力量,以引人注目的新方式將這三個垂直領域連接起來,以推動增長。

  • Indeed, in February for Fashion Weeks from Milan to London, Paris and New York, we orchestrated the first-ever 360-degree cross-category campaign and featured a Blockbuster fragrance launch. Later this month, we are thrilled to be further solidifying our brand portfolio in yet another way as we acquired the remaining interest in DECIEM completing the deal we made 3 years ago when we became majority owner.

    事實上,在 2 月從米蘭到倫敦、巴黎和紐約的時裝週上,我們精心策劃了首個 360 度跨品類行銷活動,並推出了百視達 (Blockbuster) 香水。本月晚些時候,我們很高興能夠以另一種方式進一步鞏固我們的品牌組合,因為我們收購了 DECIEM 的剩餘權益,完成了我們 3 年前成為多數股東時所做的交易。

  • During these 3 years, DECIEM and its beloved brands, The Ordinary have strode to new heights, ranking top 5 in prestige skin care in many markets, including top 2 in its home markets of Canada and the U.S. Together, we have successfully invested to scale innovation for The Ordinary and have increased The Ordinary innovation as a percentage of sales from 5% to over 25% expected this fiscal year, expanded the brand globally from India to the Middle East to South Africa and improved its profitability by driving operational efficiencies in the supply chain.

    在這三年裡,DECIEM 及其深受喜愛的品牌The Ordinary 邁上了新的高度,在許多市場的高端護膚品中排名前5 名,其中在加拿大和美國本土市場排名前2。投資擴大規模預計本財年,The Ordinary 創新佔銷售額的比例從5% 增加到25% 以上,將該品牌擴展到全球範圍內,從印度到中東再到南非,並透過提高營運效率來提高盈利能力供應鏈。

  • With that said, we believe The Ordinary and DECIEM still have bigger opportunities in front of them, and we are excited for what the future holds. Finally, we are pleased to see our initiatives and progress in sustainability recognized. And since we spoke with you in February, we were included in the CDP's Climate A list for 2023.

    儘管如此,我們相信 The Ordinary 和 DECIEM 面前仍然有更大的機會,我們對未來感到興奮。最後,我們很高興看到我們在永續發展方面的舉措和進展得到認可。自從我們在 2 月與您交談以來,我們已被列入 CDP 2023 年氣候 A 名單。

  • Overall, we received our best-ever collective scores in 2023 from CDP as along with these excellent climate results, we scored A- in each of the water security, forest timbers and forest palm oil.

    總體而言,我們在 2023 年獲得了 CDP 有史以來最好的集體分數,加上這些出色的氣候結果,我們在水安全、森林木材和森林棕櫚油方面都獲得了 A- 分。

  • In closing, we are at an inflection point in our company performance, primed for a strong second half of organic sales growth and improved profitability. And with our profit recovery plan, we are well positioned to meaningful rebuild our profitability in fiscal year 2025 and '26 while also generating savings to reinvest in our brands and consumer-facing initiatives.

    最後,我們正處於公司業績的轉折點,為下半年有機銷售的強勁成長和獲利能力的提高做好了準備。透過我們的利潤恢復計劃,我們有能力在 2025 財年和 26 財年有意義地重建我們的盈利能力,同時還可以節省資金用於對我們的品牌和麵向消費者的舉措進行再投資。

  • We are confident in our strategy to realize the promising growth opportunities of global prestige beauty, leveraging the strengths of our diversified brand portfolio rich innovation pipeline and the superior quality of our products. I extend my gratitude to our employees for the significant contribution you have made in bringing us to this inflection point of a renewed sales and profit growth trajectory.

    我們對我們的策略充滿信心,利用我們多元化的品牌組合、豐富的創新管道和卓越的產品質量,實現全球高端美容的廣闊成長機會。我對我們的員工表示感謝,感謝你們為帶領我們迎來新的銷售和利潤成長軌蹟的轉折點做出的重大貢獻。

  • I will now turn the call over to Tracey.

    我現在將把電話轉給特蕾西。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Fabrizio, and hello, everyone.

    謝謝法布里齊奧,大家好。

  • Our third quarter organic net sales increased 6% at the higher end of our expectations. As Fabrizio mentioned, we are pleased with the progress we've made thus far in Asia travel retail with reducing retailer inventory and the corresponding return to net sales growth. These achievements in the quarter were a bit earlier than expected and led to a partial shift in the expected timing of the resumption of replenishment orders from the fourth quarter to the third. Partially offsetting this growth was lower-than-expected net sales in Mainland China, reflecting the impact of ongoing softness in overall prestige beauty, in part due to subdued consumer confidence and softness during holiday and key shopping moments.

    我們第三季的有機淨銷售額成長了 6%,高於我們預期的上限。正如 Fabrizio 所提到的,我們對亞洲旅遊零售業迄今所取得的進展感到滿意,零售商庫存減少了,相應的淨銷售成長也得到了回報。本季的這些成績略早於預期,導致補貨訂單恢復的預期時間從第四季度部分轉移到了第三季。中國大陸的淨銷售額低於預期,部分抵消了這一增長,反映出整體高端美容持續疲軟的影響,部分原因是消費者信心低迷以及假期和關鍵購物時刻的疲軟。

  • Our earnings per share of $0.97 exceeded our outlook for the quarter due to the acceleration of skin care, the return to net sales growth in our Asia travel retail business, tighter expense management and a lower tax rate. The reduction in our tax rate was largely driven by the shift in our geographical mix of business. Regarding our regions, organic net sales in our Europe, the Middle East and Africa region increased 12% driven largely by the growth in our Travel retail business.

    由於皮膚護理業務的加速發展、亞洲旅遊零售業務恢復淨銷售成長、更嚴格的費用管理和較低的稅率,我們的每股收益為 0.97 美元,超出了我們對本季的預期。我們稅率的降低主要是由於我們業務地理結構的轉變。就我們的地區而言,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的有機淨銷售額成長了 12%,這主要得益於我們的旅遊零售業務的成長。

  • Our Travel retail net sales increased strong double digits returning to growth after 7 consecutive quarters of decline, given the sequential acceleration of retail sales and shipments as well as the anniversary of lower shipments last year, which were pressured by transitory headwinds in Hainan in Korea as well as limited international flights, visas and group tours from China to other markets last year.

    鑑於零售銷售和發貨量連續加速以及去年發貨量下降週年紀念日,我們的旅遊零售淨銷售額在連續7 個季度下降後實現強勁兩位數增長,並恢復增長,這是受到韓國海南短暫逆風的壓力。

  • Elsewhere in EMEA, organic net sales in our priority emerging markets increased strong double digits where we drove growth from most brands and in most channels of distribution, given our strategic initiative to expand consumer reach, in particular, for our fragrance and skincare brands. Our results in mature markets were mixed, resulting in overall flat growth.

    在歐洲、中東和非洲其他地區,我們優先新興市場的有機淨銷售額成長了兩位數,我們推動了大多數品牌和大多數分銷管道的成長,因為我們採取了擴大消費者覆蓋範圍的策略舉措,特別是我們的香水和護膚品牌。我們在成熟市場的業績好壞參半,導致整體成長持平。

  • Organic net sales in our Asia Pacific region increased 3% led by Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China and Japan, reflecting mid-single-digit net sales growth in skin care and high single-digit growth in fragrance. Organic net sales in the Americas increased 1% largely due to Latin America, where continued growth in Mexico and Brazil led by makeup, drove double-digit increases in department stores and freestanding stores.

    在香港特別行政區、中國大陸和日本的帶動下,亞太地區的有機淨銷售額增長了 3%,反映出護膚品淨銷售額實現中個位數增長,香水淨銷售額實現高個位數增長。美洲的有機淨銷售額成長了 1%,這主要歸功於拉丁美洲,墨西哥和巴西以化妝品為主導的持續成長推動了百貨公司和獨立商店的兩位數成長。

  • Organic net sales in North America were flat in the quarter as growth in fragrance and skin care was offset by declines in makeup and hair care. The double-digit growth in specialty multi, driven by Estée Lauder and M·A·C was offset by softer performance in department stores and direct-to-consumer channels.

    本季北美的有機淨銷售額持平,因為香水和護膚品的成長被化妝品和護髮品的下降所抵消。在雅詩蘭黛和 M·A·C 的推動下,特種複合產品實現了兩位數的成長,但被百貨公司和直接面向消費者管道的疲軟業績所抵消。

  • From a category standpoint, organic net sales in skin care rose 9% largely driven by our Asia travel retail business as well as from Hong Kong SAR and Mainland China. Organic net sales from La Mer and Estée Lauder propelled the category's growth led by strong campaigns behind our hero product franchises with new product innovation and increased in-store activations.

    從品類角度來看,保養品的有機淨銷售額成長了 9%,主要受到我們的亞洲旅遊零售業務以及香港特別行政區和中國大陸的推動。海藍之謎 (La Mer) 和雅詩蘭黛 (Estée Lauder) 的有機淨銷售額推動了該類別的成長,這得益於我們的英雄產品特許經營權背後的強大活動,包括新產品創新和增加店內活動。

  • Organic net sales in makeup increased 4% largely driven by our Asia travel retail business and by Latin America. Net sales from Estée Lauder and Clinique led the category's growth fueled by ongoing activations behind our hero product franchises. This was partially offset by a prior year benefit from changes made to M·A·C's take-back loyalty program. Excluding the impact from the prior year benefit, M·A·C net sales increased mid-single digits with growth across all regions, mainly driven by new product innovation.

    化妝品的有機淨銷售額成長了 4%,這主要得益於我們的亞洲旅遊零售業務和拉丁美洲。雅詩蘭黛和倩碧的淨銷售額引領了該類別的成長,這得益於我們英雄產品特許經營權的持續激活。這被前一年因 M·A·C 回收忠誠度計劃變化而帶來的收益所部分抵消。排除上一年效益的影響,M·A·C 淨銷售額實現中個位數成長,所有地區均實現成長,這主要是由新產品創新推動的。

  • Organic net sales in fragrance increased 1% and in hair care declined 4%. In fragrance, net sales growth was driven by our luxury and artisanal brands led by Jo Malone London and Le Labo. Jo Malone London grew double digits in Travel retail and specialty multi. Le Labo saw double-digit growth in our direct-to-consumer channels, particularly in freestanding stores, driven by both same-store growth and targeted expanded consumer reach.

    香水中的有機淨銷售額成長了 1%,護髮品中的有機淨銷售額下降了 4%。在香水領域,淨銷售額的成長是由 Jo Malone London 和 Le Labo 等奢侈品牌和手工品牌推動的。 Jo Malone London 在旅遊零售和專業綜合業務方面實現了兩位數成長。在同店成長和有針對性擴大消費者覆蓋範圍的推動下,Le Labo 的直接面向消費者管道(尤其是獨立商店)實現了兩位數增長。

  • Partially offsetting these increases was a decline from Estée Lauder due to retail softness during holiday and key shopping moments. Our gross margin increased 280 basis points compared to last year. This reflects positive impacts from changes in category mix driven by the acceleration of skin care, lower obsolescence charges given the reduction in excess inventory compared to last year and stronger strategic price realization through lower levels of promotion.

    由於假期和關鍵購物時刻零售疲軟,雅詩蘭黛的銷量下降部分抵消了這些增長。與去年相比,我們的毛利率增加了 280 個基點。這反映了護膚品加速推動的品類結構變化、由於過剩庫存比去年減少而導致的過時費用降低以及透過較低的促銷水平實現更強的戰略價格實現的積極影響。

  • These improvements were partially offset as expected by the impact of the previous pull down of production that triggered a requirement to recognize the related manufacturing costs in the current period instead of when products are sold. This resulted in a 215 basis point headwind to gross margin.

    正如預期的那樣,這些改進被先前產量下降的影響部分抵消,該影響觸發了在當期而不是在產品銷售時確認相關製造成本的要求。這導致毛利率下降 215 個基點。

  • Foreign currency also pressured gross margin in the quarter. Operating expenses decreased 290 basis points as a percent of sales during the quarter, driven by the sales growth leverage and expense management, including advertising and promotional expense, which decreased approximately 240 basis points compared to last year.

    外匯也對本季的毛利率造成壓力。在銷售成長槓桿和費用管理(包括廣告和促銷費用)的推動下,本季營運費用佔銷售額的百分比下降了 290 個基點,與去年相比下降了約 240 個基點。

  • This reduction reflects the anticipated shift in certain spending from the third quarter to the fourth to support innovation launches in key holiday moments in the fourth quarter.

    這一減少反映了某​​些支出從第三季到第四季的預期轉變,以支持第四季度關鍵假期時刻的創新推出。

  • Operating income increased 75% to $554 million, and our operating margin expanded 570 basis points to 14.1% compared to 8.4% last year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 30.5% compared to the elevated rate of 43.1% last year. The decrease in the effective tax rate was primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate on our foreign operations, due to the difference in timing of the estimated change in our full year geographical mix of earnings in the current and prior year periods. This was partially offset by the unfavorable impact associated with previously issued stock-based compensation.

    營業收入成長 75%,達到 5.54 億美元,營業利益率比去年的 8.4% 成長 570 個基點,達到 14.1%。我們本季的有效稅率為 30.5%,而去年的稅率為 43.1%。有效稅率的下降主要是由於我們的海外業務的有效稅率較低,這是由於我們本年度和上一年期間的全年收入地理組合的估計變化時間存在差異。這被先前發布的股票薪酬相關的不利影響部分抵消。

  • Diluted EPS was $0.97 compared to $0.47 last year, largely due to the increase in sales, improvement in gross profit margin and a lower tax rate. The impact from the business disruptions in Israel and other parts of the Middle East was $0.01 dilutive to EPS in the quarter. The acquisition of the Tom Ford brand was neutral to EPS as interest expense related to our debt financing was offset by the combined benefits derived as the licensor of the brand from royalty revenue this year and savings from no longer having to pay royalties on the beauty business.

    稀釋後每股收益為 0.97 美元,而去年為 0.47 美元,這主要是由於銷售額的增加、毛利率的提高和稅率的降低。以色列和中東其他地區的業務中斷對本季每股收益的影響為 0.01 美元。收購湯姆福特品牌對每股盈餘是中性的,因為與我們的債務融資相關的利息支出被今年作為該品牌許可人從特許權收入中獲得的綜合收益以及不再需要支付美容業務特許權使用費而節省的綜合收益所抵銷。

  • For the 9 months, we generated $1.5 billion in net cash flows from operating activities compared to $1 billion last year. The increase from last year reflects lower working capital, which was largely due to the actions we have taken to reduce in-house inventory levels, primarily finished goods and semi-finished goods that resulted in a significant improvement in our days to sell.

    過去 9 個月,我們的營運活動產生了 15 億美元的淨現金流,而去年為 10 億美元。與去年相比的成長反映了營運資本的下降,這主要是由於我們採取了降低內部庫存水準(主要是成品和半成品)的行動,從而導致我們的銷售天數顯著改善。

  • We invested $702 million in capital expenditures, and we returned $710 million in cash to stockholders through dividends. As Fabrizio mentioned, our plans under the profit recovery plan are progressing and are on track. This quarter, we began taking charges under the restructuring program and expect approval to accelerate in the fourth quarter of this year and throughout fiscal 2025 with meaningful benefits beginning to flow into our fiscal year 2025 results.

    我們投資了 7.02 億美元的資本支出,並透過股息向股東返還了 7.1 億美元的現金。正如 Fabrizio 所提到的,我們的利潤恢復計畫正在取得進展並且步入正軌。本季度,我們開始根據重組計劃收取費用,預計批准將在今年第四季度和整個 2025 財年加速,有意義的收益開始流入我們的 2025 財年業績中。

  • Turning now to our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2024. We are pleased with our progress thus far in reducing inventory levels resuming replenishment shipments in Asia travel retail, accelerating innovation and selectively expanding our consumer reach. These efforts have led to sequential improvements in both net sales and operating margin from the first half of the year, culminating in our return to profitable net sales growth this quarter. With these results and our outlook for the fourth quarter, we continue to expect a stronger second half compared to last year, underscoring that we believe we are at a sales and profitability inflection point.

    現在轉向我們對 2024 財年剩餘時間的展望。這些努力導致淨銷售額和營業利潤率自上半年以來連續改善,最終使我們在本季度恢復盈利的淨銷售額增長。根據這些結果和我們對第四季度的展望,我們繼續預計下半年將比去年更強勁,這強調我們相信我們正處於銷售和獲利轉折點。

  • While we delivered on the high end of our third quarter expectations, we are lowering our fiscal '24 organic net sales outlook range to reflect continued risks from evolving macroeconomic volatility, including continued softness in Mainland China and geopolitical tensions in certain areas around the world.

    雖然我們實現了第三季度的高端預期,但我們下調了24 財年有機淨銷售前景範圍,以反映不斷變化的宏觀經濟波動帶來的持續風險,包括中國大陸的持續疲軟和全球某些地區的地緣政治緊張局勢。

  • In Asia travel retail, we are also mindful of potential short-term volatility in retail sales related to actions certain retailers are taking to increase their profitability. With the recalibration between our third and fourth quarters, we discussed earlier, we are maintaining our full year operating margin expectation and are increasing our EPS outlook slightly to reflect disciplined expense management year-to-date, somewhat offset by our plans to strategically invest in key areas of our business in the fourth quarter to continue to drive profitable growth and reflecting incremental headwinds from foreign currency translation.

    在亞洲旅遊零售方面,我們也注意到與某些零售商為提高獲利能力而採取的行動有關的零售額潛在的短期波動。正如我們之前討論的,隨著第三季度和第四季度之間的重新調整,我們將維持全年營業利潤率預期,並略微提高每股收益預期,以反映年初至今嚴格的費用管理,這在一定程度上被我們策略性投資的計畫所抵銷。

  • The combination of our third quarter performance and outlook for the fourth quarter results in a strong second half compared to the first half with improvements in net sales and operating margin. Excluding the in-period charge we recognized in the third quarter, gross margin is also expected to improve in the second half. We believe our assumptions for the second half mark a meaningful turning point for the company, demonstrating the signs of our recovery and better position us along with our profit recovery plan initiatives to drive sales growth and profitability further in fiscal 2025 and beyond.

    結合第三季的業績和第四季的前景,下半年與上半年相比表現強勁,淨銷售額和營業利潤率有所改善。剔除我們在第三季確認的期間費用,預計下半年毛利率也將有所改善。我們相信,我們對下半年的假設標誌著公司的一個有意義的轉折點,展示了我們復甦的跡象,並使我們能夠更好地定位我們的利潤復甦計劃舉措,以進一步推動2025 財年及以後的銷售成長和獲利能力。

  • Using March 29 spot rates of 1.079 for the euro, 1.262 for the pound, 7.227 for the Chinese yuan and [13.50] for the Korean yuan, currency translation is anticipated to negatively impact reported sales and diluted EPS for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

    使用 3 月 29 日即期匯率歐元 1.079、英鎊 1.262、人民幣 7.227 和韓元 [13.50],貨幣換算預計將對第四季度和整個季度報告的銷售額和攤薄每股收益產生負面影響。

  • We now expect organic net sales for our fourth quarter to increase 6% to 10% with increased consumer-facing investments, including shifts from the third quarter and aligned to support innovation in key shopping moments in the fourth quarter. This growth also reflects the anniversary of some business disruptions we experienced last year, primarily in Hainan.

    我們現在預計,隨著面向消費者的投資增加,包括第三季的轉變以及支持第四季關鍵購物時刻的創新,第四季的有機淨銷售額將成長 6% 至 10%。這一增長也反映了我們去年經歷的一些業務中斷週年紀念日,主要是在海南。

  • In Mainland China, we expect the ongoing softness of overall prestige beauty to continue to pressure net sales. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by 1 point. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.18 to $0.28, an increase of over 100%. Currency translation is expected to dilute EPS by $0.01 and potential risks of business disruptions in the Middle East are expected to be dilutive by $0.03. Adjusted EPS in constant currency is expected to range between $0.19 to $0.29.

    在中國大陸,我們預計整體高端美容的持續疲軟將繼續給淨銷售額帶來壓力。貨幣換算預計將稀釋報告的淨銷售額 1 個百分點。我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益為 0.18 美元至 0.28 美元,增幅超過 100%。貨幣換算預計將稀釋 EPS 0.01 美元,中東業務中斷的潛在風險預計將稀釋 0.03 美元。以固定匯率計算,調整後每股盈餘預計在 0.19 美元至 0.29 美元之間。

  • For the full year, we expect organic net sales to range between a 1% to 2% decline. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by 1 point. Our full year operating margin outlook remains unchanged and is expected to be between 9% and 9.5%, a contraction from 11.4% last year.

    我們預計全年有機淨銷售額將下降 1% 至 2%。貨幣換算預計將稀釋報告的淨銷售額 1 個百分點。我們全年營業利潤率展望保持不變,預計在 9% 至 9.5% 之間,較去年的 11.4% 有所收縮。

  • We continue to expect our full year effective tax rate to be approximately 35% compared to 26.5% last year. Diluted EPS is expected to range between $2.14 and $2.24 before restructuring and other charges. Currency translation and potential risks of business disruptions in Israel and other parts of the Middle East are expected to dilute earnings per share by $0.09 and $0.06, respectively. In constant currency, we expect EPS to decrease between 33% to 36%.

    我們仍然預計全年有效稅率約為 35%,而去年為 26.5%。在扣除重組和其他費用之前,稀釋後每股收益預計在 2.14 美元至 2.24 美元之間。貨幣換算以及以色列和中東其他地區業務中斷的潛在風險預計將分別稀釋每股收益 0.09 美元和 0.06 美元。以固定匯率計算,我們預期每股盈餘將下降 33% 至 36%。

  • Our fiscal 2024 outlook also assumes the purchase of the remaining outstanding equity interest in DECIEM anticipated to be completed in May of 2024. In closing, our expected second half results starting with our strong third quarter performance demonstrate our progressive return to sales growth and profitability. We have navigated through numerous challenges over this past year with resilience and determination to take meaningful actions to begin to improve the trajectory of our business.

    我們的2024 財年展望也假設對DECIEM 剩餘未償還股權的購買預計將於2024 年5 月完成。和盈利能力。在過去的一年裡,我們以韌性和決心採取有意義的行動,開始改善我們的業務發展軌跡,克服了許多挑戰。

  • Our results show we have made great strides, and we have immense gratitude for the resolve and hard work of our teams globally. And while we are pleased with our progress and results this quarter, we remain keenly aware of the additional work that lies ahead to continue down the path of restoring stronger profit margins. We are intensely focused on doing the necessary work to return to long-term sustainable growth and profitability, supported by the profit recovery plan initiatives and executed by our dedicated employees.

    我們的結果表明我們已經取得了長足的進步,我們對全球團隊的決心和辛勤工作深表感謝。雖然我們對本季的進展和結果感到滿意,但我們仍然敏銳地意識到,為了繼續恢復更高的利潤率,未來還有更多工作要做。在利潤恢復計畫措施的支持下,並由我們敬業的員工執行,我們高度重視進行必要的工作,以恢復長期可持續成長和獲利能力。

  • And that concludes our prepared remarks. We'll be happy to take your questions at this time.

    我們準備好的發言就到此結束。我們很樂意此時回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • So Tracey, I just wanted to ask, I guess, a question about the 4Q guide and what's implied. So I guess the implied margin in 4Q steps down from 3Q, yet the revenue will be roughly the same. It just implies maybe there's not as much leverage. But so if you can just give us some perspective on the margin step down quarter-to-quarter. And then as we think about the run rate into '25, is there anything that we should read into the fourth quarter guide that would sort of inform exit rate for '24 into '25, both in terms of organic sales and margins.

    Tracey,我想我只是想問一個關於 4Q 指南及其含義的問題。所以我猜第四季的隱含利潤率會比第三季有所下降,但營收將大致相同。這只是意味著也許沒有那麼大的槓桿作用。但是,如果您能給我們一些關於利潤率逐季度下降的看法。然後,當我們考慮25 年的運行率時,我們應該在第四季度指南中讀到什麼內容,這些內容可以為24 年到25 年的退出率提供信息,無論是在有機銷售額還是利潤率方面。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Bryan. When you think about the fourth quarter and what I said in my prepared remarks, I talked about some shifts that are occurring in the fourth quarter. So we did shift some advertising expense out of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter and that was to support some of the timing of the activity that we had in the fourth quarter, both innovation as well as some of the holidays in the fourth quarter.

    謝謝,布萊恩。當你想到第四季以及我在準備好的演講中所說的話時,我談到了第四季正在發生的一些轉變。因此,我們確實將一些廣告費用從第三季度轉移到了第四季度,這是為了支持我們在第四季度進行的一些活動的時間安排,包括創新以及第四季度的一些假期。

  • I also talked about the fact that travel retail -- Asia travel retail, we resumed shipments earlier than what we had expected in the third quarter. So there are -- it's hard to look at Q3, Q4, you really need to look at the second half together because of some of those shifts.

    我還談到了旅遊零售——亞洲旅遊零售,我們在第三季度恢復發貨的時間早於我們的預期。所以,很難看第三、第四季度,因為其中一些變化,你真的需要一起看下半年。

  • What's impacting our fourth quarter performance is -- and the change in our guidance is softer growth of prestige beauty in Mainland China. The continued macro uncertainty that retailers are cautious in many markets have.

    影響我們第四季業績的是-我們指導的變化是中國大陸高端美容產品的成長放緩。持續的宏觀不確定性導致零售商在許多市場上保持謹慎態度。

  • We also have higher currency than what we had expected. So that is pressuring our EPS a bit as well. But when you look at the second half compared to prior guidance, what you will see is some of the expense savings that we realized and that I again talked about in my prepared remarks, we are actually flowing through. So we are offsetting some of the currency downside that we had, and we're also offsetting some of the sales softness that is embedded in our updated guidance range.

    我們的貨幣也比我們預期的要高。因此,這也給我們的每股盈餘帶來了一些壓力。但是,當您將下半年與先前的指導進行比較時,您會看到我們實現的一些費用節省,我在準備好的發言中再次談到,我們實際上正在經歷這些費用節省。因此,我們正在抵消一些貨幣貶值,並且我們還抵消了更新指導範圍中包含的一些銷售疲軟。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Olivia Tong from Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

  • Olivia Tong Cheang - MD & Research Analyst

    Olivia Tong Cheang - MD & Research Analyst

  • You mentioned several times that you've seen improvement towards targeted retail inventory levels in travel retail, but not quite there yet. So can you talk about exit rate on the quarter, more recent performance in Asia travel retail, particularly in Hainan and Korea, and then also China, both on and offline. And just what consumption looks like more recently, your views on the 618 festival upcoming. It sounds like you're going to spend a bit more money on that than you had previously anticipated and just your outlook there.

    您多次提到,您已經看到旅遊零售業的目標零售庫存水準有所改善,但尚未完全實現。您能否談談本季的退出率、亞洲旅遊零售業的最新表現,特別是海南和韓國,還有中國的線上和線下零售業。以及最近的消費情況如何,您對即將到來的618節慶的看法。聽起來你要花比你之前預期的更多的錢,只是你的前景。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • So global travel retail return to growth also driven by, frankly, growth and retail growth across all the regions. So the first important point is retail sales growth. And this was very, very strong in EMEA, Americas, in many parts of APAC and was single digit in the China [TAR] part. But this is a very important progress versus the past. And this is for Estée Companies brands, is great news also for the future.

    因此,坦白說,全球旅遊零售業恢復成長也是受到所有地區的成長和零售成長的推動。所以第一個重要的點是零售額成長。在歐洲、中東和非洲、美洲、亞太地區的許多地區,這一數字非常非常強勁,而在中國 [TAR] 地區,這一數字僅為個位數。但這與過去相比是一個非常重要的進步。這對雅詩蘭黛公司的品牌來說,對未來來說也是個好消息。

  • The second thing that we are seeing is a very robust traffic recovery across the travel retail channel, which is driving the sales to travelers there is work to be done still on conversion, which is the areas of improvement that we are still working on, but we had a lot of work and progress in this by activations and retail division, activating particularly in Hainan with a lot of activity, and this activation are working. And so we see progress also in this area.

    我們看到的第二件事是整個旅遊零售管道的流量恢復非常強勁,這推動了對旅行者的銷售,但在轉換方面仍有工作要做,這是我們仍在努力改進的領域,但是我們的活化和零售部門在這方面做了很多工作並取得了進展,特別是在海南進行了很多活動,並且這種活化正在發揮作用。因此,我們也看到了這一領域的進展。

  • And then as it was part of your question, because of all these elements, strong improvement in the inventories in our retailers and so reaching the targets in several retailers and in several SKUs ahead of our original communicated target.

    然後,正如您問題的一部分,由於所有這些因素,我們零售商的庫存得到了大幅改善,因此在幾個零售商和幾個 SKU 中達到了我們最初傳達的目標之前的目標。

  • So at the end, this created a very good growth, which is based on retail growth and sell into replenishment because of the decreased inventory levels versus the past. This combination is very solid. We expect this to continue and to progress in line with our goals.

    因此,最終,這創造了非常好的成長,這是基於零售成長和銷售補貨,因為庫存水準與過去相比有所下降。這個組合非常牢固。我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去,並按照我們的目標取得進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just had a question about spending levels. It was great. Tracey, thanks for being so specific on the advertising and the reinvestment this quarter and then shipped into 4Q. But if I remember in 3Q, there was also some timing shift on spend. So I wanted to talk a little bit about maybe the decision tree of like when to put that spending in?

    我只是有一個關於支出水準的問題。太好了。特雷西(Tracey),感謝您對本季的廣告和再投資如此具體,然後交付到第四季度。但如果我記得在第三季度,支出也發生了一些時間轉變。所以我想談談決策樹,比如何時投入這筆支出?

  • Is it -- because if it's shifting, is it about pace of getting innovation ready and launched? Is it about the consumer environment, maybe avoid putting money in play that would be like pushing on a string if the consumer isn't there. But it does feel like some of those spending plans are shifting gently quarter-to-quarter. And so I was curious if you could just comment on that.

    是嗎?是否與消費者環境有關,也許要避免投入資金,如果消費者不在那裡,這就像推動一條繩子一樣。但確實感覺其中一些支出計劃正在逐季度緩慢變化。所以我很好奇你是否可以對此發表評論。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Well, you outlined a few of the reasons that we would make a decision to shift some of the spending. So one of the things that we saw early in the quarter, towards the middle of the quarter is that some of the holidays, particularly in China, were not performing as we had anticipated.

    是的。嗯,您概述了我們決定轉移部分支出的一些原因。因此,我們在本季初和本季中期看到的一件事是,一些假期,特別是在中國,沒有像我們預期的那樣表現。

  • I think we mentioned in our prepared remarks, 2 holidays that are important for us, Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day. We're closer this year actually overlapped a bit than in prior years. Valentine's Day is actually a pretty strong gifting moment for us in China. Our team does a fantastic job of supporting Valentine's Day, both Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day are less promotional holidays than some of the other holidays.

    我想我們在準備好的演講中提到了兩個對我們來說很重要的假期:農曆新年和情人節。今年我們離目標更近了,實際上比往年有一些重疊。對我們中國人來說,情人節其實是一個非常重要的送禮時刻。我們的團隊在支持情人節方面做得非常出色,農曆新年和情人節的促銷假期比其他一些假期要少。

  • But we didn't see the lift that we would normally see out of those holidays and trending into other holidays in the quarter, we made the decision -- or the China team made the decision that it was best to shift some of that advertising to the fourth quarter and support some of the holidays that are upcoming in May and then obviously the big 618 holiday in June.

    但我們沒有看到通常會在這些假期中看到的提升,並且趨勢到本季度的其他假期,我們做出了決定 - 或者中國團隊做出了決定,最好將部分廣告轉移到第四季度,並支持即將到來的5 月的一些假期,以及6 月的618 大假期。

  • So 1 of the things that we've talked about for a long time is the agility that we have created, particularly in our advertising spend that allows us to take some of those decisions so that we can better match our advertising spend and when we think consumers will be reacting and responding whether it's to our gifting programs or our innovation programs. So that is what you saw in, Lauren, in the Q3, Q4 shift.

    因此,我們長期以來談論的一件事是我們創造的敏捷性,特別是在我們的廣告支出方面,它使我們能夠做出一些決定,以便我們可以更好地匹配我們的廣告支出,並且當我們認為無論是我們的禮品計劃還是我們的創新計劃,消費者都會做出反應和回應。勞倫,這就是您在第三季、第四季的轉變中看到的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

  • Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

    Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

  • Tracey, I wanted to stick with that question, but perhaps look out more longer term. Obviously, you mentioned higher investment in fiscal Q4 and the shift from Q3 and also you had better-than-expected expense management in Q3. So can you just take a step back and discuss the pace of reinvestment you expect behind the business over the next few years? How much of that is captured in the difference between gross and net savings and the profit recovery program? and then how the pace of that reinvestment fits with the savings from the profit recovery program and how you think about the savings. So really, the cadence annually looking at reinvestment versus savings as you look out over the next few years. And how they interrelate with each other.

    特蕾西,我想堅持這個問題,但也許要著眼於更長遠的發展。顯然,您提到了第四財季的投資增加以及第三季的轉變,而第三季的費用管理也比預期好。那麼,您能否退後一步,討論一下您預計未來幾年業務背後的再投資步伐?其中有多少體現在總節省和淨節省以及利潤恢復計劃之間的差異?然後再投資的速度如何與利潤回收計劃節省的費用相適應,以及您如何看待節省的費用。事實上,當你展望未來幾年時,每年都會考慮再投資與儲蓄。以及它們如何相互關聯。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Great. No, thank you for the question. So yes, let me take the opportunity to talk as you asked about the profit recovery plan. We're always focused on profitable growth, let me start there. The actions that we're taking both within the profit recovery plan as well as outside of the profit recovery plan are focused on profitable growth.

    偉大的。不,謝謝你的提問。所以,是的,當你問及利潤恢復計畫時,讓我藉此機會談談。我們始終專注於獲利成長,讓我從這裡開始。我們在利潤恢復計劃內以及利潤恢復計劃外採取的行動都集中在利潤增長上。

  • The profit recovery plan is an accelerator of our growth, and in particular, an accelerator of our margins. And let me just try to simplify it a bit. I know we've said that we will share, which we will more with you in August once our plans are complete, and we provide guidance for the next year, but the profit recovery plan is, first and foremost, focused on restoration of our gross margin.

    利潤恢復計劃是我們成長的加速器,特別是我們利潤率的加速器。讓我試著稍微簡化一下。我知道我們已經說過我們會分享,一旦我們的計劃完成,我們將在八月份與您更多地分享,並且我們為明年提供指導,但利潤恢復計劃首先側重於恢復我們的毛利率。

  • Now we're mindful of shifts in category mix and channel mix relative to history. Obviously, we had growth in fragrance in our artisanal and luxury fragrance portfolio, and that's very important. We're also focused on restoration of our makeup growth. But certainly, as you saw in this past quarter, we are also experiencing the acceleration of our very important skin care category, and we expect that, that will continue.

    現在我們注意到品類組合和通路組合相對於歷史的變化。顯然,我們的手工和奢華香水產品組合中的香水有所增長,這非常重要。我們也專注於恢復化妝品的生長。但當然,正如您在上個季度所看到的那樣,我們也正在經歷我們非常重要的皮膚護理類別的加速發展,我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

  • The biggest drain on our margin has been our gross margin. And it's in the aftermath of the pandemic. It has been the biggest focus of our recovery, and we are focused on price realization. Part of that will be driven by the actions that we are taking in terms of inventory management to control discounts in excess and obsolescence.

    我們利潤率消耗最大的是毛利率。這是在大流行之後。這是我們復甦的最大焦點,我們關注的是價格實現。部分原因是我們在庫存管理方面採取的行動,以控製過度折扣和過時。

  • You saw a bit of the results of that in Q3. And you will see certainly more of that in fiscal '25. So that is a very big focus of our profit recovery plan, the focus on restoration of our gross margins. We're also focused on supply chain efficiencies that will help our gross margins and accretive innovation. And we talked about some of the processes in Fabrizio's prepared remarks that we are deploying and strengthening in order to be able to do that.

    您在第三季看到了一些結果。您肯定會在 25 財年看到更多這樣的情況。因此,這是我們利潤恢復計劃的一個非常重要的重點,重點是恢復我們的毛利率。我們也專注於供應鏈效率,這將有助於提高我們的毛利率和增值創新。我們在 Fabrizio 準備好的演講中討論了我們正在部署和加強的一些流程,以便能夠做到這一點。

  • The second area of focus is greater leverage of our expense base. We have efforts in indirect procurement in terms of accelerating some of the savings there. And we have -- are taking some difficult decisions as it relates to rightsizing and streamlining parts of our organization, and that's the restructuring program that we spoke to you about before.

    第二個重點領域是提高我們的支出基礎的槓桿。我們在間接採購方面做出了努力,以加速那裡的一些節約。我們正在做出一些艱難的決定,因為這涉及到我們組織的規模調整和精簡,這就是我們之前與你們談論的重組計劃。

  • That is really -- the combination of that should drive the $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion of incremental operating profit over 2 years. And again, we said that slightly more of that will happen in fiscal '25 [then] in '26. And again, in terms of the mix of where that recovery is expected more in gross profit margin, but also in our operating expenses. But I want to take the opportunity to talk about a couple of other benefits as it relates to the profit recovery plan.

    事實上,這兩者的結合應該會在兩年內推動營運利潤增加 11 億至 14 億美元。我們再次說過,25 財年(然後)26 財年將發生更多的情況。再說一次,就毛利率和我們的營運費用的預期復甦而言。但我想藉此機會談談與利潤恢復計畫相關的其他一些好處。

  • So in addition to the margin recovery, the program is expected to fund additional investment to your point, for growth, namely in consumer activation, more consumer activation for our brand. So the expectation is we are going to save more than the $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion that we are committing to in terms of operating profit improvement in order to also increase some of our advertising spend, very targeted and selectively against the momentum that we see in our business.

    因此,除了利潤恢復之外,該計劃預計還會為您的點提供額外投資,以實現成長,即激活消費者,激活我們品牌的更多消費者。因此,預計我們將在營業利潤改善方面節省超過我們承諾的 11 億至 14 億美元,以便還增加我們的一些廣告支出,非常有針對性且有選擇性地針對我們看到的勢頭我們的業務。

  • And last but not least, we expect to streamline and reduce some of the complexity in the organization that is built up over time in our processes and that's expected to increase our speed, agility and effectiveness in our markets. And I know our organization, in particular, very much looks forward to this benefit. So it's a powerful program. I'm glad you asked about it. When we deliver on all elements of it, and we will share more in terms of helping with the modeling of it in August.

    最後但並非最不重要的一點是,我們希望簡化和減少組織中隨著時間的推移在我們的流程中建立起來的一些複雜性,並有望提高我們在市場上的速度、敏捷性和有效性。我知道我們的組織尤其非常期待這種好處。所以這是一個功能強大的程式。我很高興你問起這件事。當我們交付它的所有元素時,我們將在八月分享更多關於幫助建模的資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

  • Filippo Falorni - VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Filippo Falorni - VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • I had a question on the Mainland China business. You clearly mentioned strong start in January, but then a deceleration. You mentioned that the exit rate has been soft in the country. So maybe you can comment particularly like what you've seen more recently from a category growth standpoint, promotional activity levels and maybe market share?

    我有一個關於中國大陸業務的問題。您明確提到一月份的強勁開局,但隨後減速。您提到該國的退出率一直較低。那麼,也許您可以從品類增長的角度、促銷活動水平以及市場份額的角度特別評論您最近看到的情況?

  • And then maybe longer term, if you take a step back, based on your analysis on the market, what do you think has been the main driver of the weakness? Is it mainly macro related? Is it more trade down in the category? Or are competitors doing better? Any sense of what the drivers of this slowdown are, will be helpful.

    然後,也許從長遠來看,如果您退後一步,根據您對市場的分析,您認為疲軟的主要驅動因素是什麼?主要與宏觀有關嗎?該品類是否有較多的降價促銷?或是競爭對手做得更好嗎?了解導致經濟放緩的因素是什麼,都會有所幫助。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. On the -- in this moment, the slowdown, the softness is the overall prestige market. And that's what is softer than what we originally expected and that's what is stuck in Mainland China.

    是的,當然。此刻,整體信譽市場放緩、疲軟。這比我們最初預期的要軟,這就是中國大陸的困境。

  • What I want to clarify is that we need to look at the -- we do look at the Chinese consumers in total and not only the segmentation the market does. So there is a mainland China's consumers, there is Hong Kong SAR. There is the [TAR] China, which includes Hainan, for example, in other parts and there are the international traveling consumers, the people which for tourism or business travel from China to Tokyo, Paris, et cetera.

    我想澄清的是,我們需要關注中國消費者的整體情況,而不僅僅是市場的細分。所以有一個中國大陸的消費者,有一個香港特別行政區。有中國(西藏自治區),例如包括海南,其他地區還有國際旅遊消費者,即從中國到東京、巴黎等旅遊或商務旅行的人。

  • So we see actually progress in the total Chinese consumer consumption on our brands, and they are very solid. And when you took Mainland plus the progress in Hong Kong SAR plus the TAR China retail progress that I was speaking about in the previous question, plus the success we see of our brands internationally, the Chinese travelers now are growing more, for example, in Japan, for example, in Paris.

    因此,我們實際上看到中國消費者對我們品牌的消費總量取得了進步,而且非常穩定。當你考慮到中國大陸、香港特別行政區的進步以及我在上一個問題中談到的西藏自治區零售業的進步,再加上我們看到我們的品牌在國際上取得的成功時,中國遊客現在的成長速度較快,例如,以日本為例,在巴黎。

  • And so when you put all these numbers and frankly, they are all solid numbers except the international travelers in other cities, which is an estimate in our model, but we see clear progress and there is progress between quarter 2 and quarter 3 despite the softness in Mainland, and there is actually their turn positive, very interestingly positive in quarter 4 estimates for the future.

    因此,當你把所有這些數字放在一起時,坦白說,除了其他城市的國際旅客之外,它們都是可靠的數字,這是我們模型中的估計,但我們看到了明顯的進展,並且儘管疲軟,但第二季和第三季之間還是取得了進展在大陸,實際上他們的情況正在轉好,非常有趣的是,第四季對未來的預測非常積極。

  • So the trends are also depend by channel. And the drivers, first of all, at different consumers, the consumers that travel both for vacation and internationally tend to have [beat] the high end. In this moment, the softness is more in the middle -- in the consumer sentiment of the middle class.

    所以趨勢也取決於通路。首先,驅動因素是不同的消費者,度假和出國旅行的消費者往往會[擊敗]高端產品。此時此刻,柔軟更多的是在中間──中產階級的消費情緒。

  • We tend to be shopping more in Mainland and these channels follow different trends and different -- depending on the moment, depending on the situation, but the equities of the brands are strong, as seen by the overall progress, particularly certain brands which are doing -- growing in the total already as we speak and continue to accelerate in our portfolio. And the future of the -- this is positive.

    我們傾向於更多在內地購物,這些管道遵循不同的趨勢和不同——取決於時刻、取決於情況,但從整體進展來看,品牌的股票很強勁,尤其是某些正在做的品牌— —就在我們說話的時候,總數已經在成長,我們的投資組合將繼續加速。未來是積極的。

  • There is a sense of recovery in the overall consumption, although via channel, there are different percentages, different evolution, and this can be different also by quarter, by semester, depending on the various trends that happen. So we look internally to the Chinese consumer as a whole and not only to the various parts.

    整體消費有一種復甦的感覺,儘管透過管道,有不同的百分比,不同的演變,而且每個季度、每個學期也可能有所不同,具體取決於發生的各種趨勢。因此,我們在內部著眼於中國消費者的整體,而不僅僅是各個部分。

  • Then your question was what have been the key drivers behind this. Now one of the key drivers, obviously, is the skin care trends, and the fact that in the post-COVID, the consumers have been having -- are having a period where they're focusing more on experiences -- on overall experiences a consumption, spending in their portfolio on overall experience like travel, like other categories or like restaurants or like things like that.

    那麼你的問題是這背後的關鍵驅動因素是什麼。顯然,現在的關鍵驅動因素之一是護膚趨勢,事實上,在後新冠疫情時期,消費者已經經歷了一段時期,他們更加註重體驗——整體體驗和消費,在他們的投資組合中花費在整體體驗上,例如旅行,其他類別或餐廳或類似的東西。

  • So this will evolve, it's evolving in every single market after COVID and become more balanced over time. That's our experience, and that's visible already. So that's one of the drivers. It's the consumer priority by category and experiences versus goods.

    因此,這種情況將會不斷發展,在新冠疫情之後,它會在每個市場不斷發展,並隨著時間的推移變得更加平衡。這是我們的經驗,而且已經是可見的。這就是司機之一。這是消費者優先考慮的類別和體驗與商品。

  • The second thing is the -- we are accelerating innovation in a big way. We have invested in a R&D center in China. We see the results of this innovation, but with the first innovation coming from the R&D center will be in quarter 4, and we will see the impact of it, which is very dedicated to specific Chinese consumers, so part of the drivers has been the amount of innovation and the quality of innovation that can be deployed for quality, I mean also local relevancy of the innovation and this is an improving trend.

    第二件事是──我們正在大力加速創新。我們在中國投資了一個研發中心。我們看到了這項創新的成果,但研發中心的第一個創新將在第四季度推出,我們將看到它的影響,它是專門針對特定的中國消費者的,所以部分驅動因素是創新的數量和可用於質量的創新質量,我的意思是創新的本地相關性,這是一個不斷改善的趨勢。

  • It is already enforcement trend, which gives very, very solid indications for the future. So the other driver has been promotionality. The market has been during COVID promotional, but in this moment, all the activities that the governments have decided to do on the structured market is reducing the level of structured market, also the price increases that many of the retailers are taking also in travel retail are in the short term are impacting the consumption, particularly the middle class level in Mainland.

    這已經是執法趨勢,這為未來提供了非常非常可靠的跡象。所以另一個驅動因素是促銷。市場一直處於新冠病毒促銷期間,但此時此刻,政府決定在結構化市場上採取的所有活動都在降低結構化市場的水平,而且許多零售商也在旅遊零售領域採取了提價措施短期內對消費,尤其是內地中產階級的消費水準產生影響。

  • But on the contrary, in the long term will further balance the proportion between a structure and structured market, which is obviously in line with our goals and is the objective. So it's a positive long-term trend, which is happening. So -- but the market will remain promotional. And so that's why we have the activation of promotionality, particularly in the area of sampling, gifting to the points that Tracey was making before, is on a decrease and the level of discounts is on a decrease trend and that's the change in the proportionality model.

    但相反,從長遠來看,會進一步平衡結構性和結構性市場的比例,這顯然是符合我們的目標,也是目標。所以這是一個正在發生的積極的長期趨勢。所以——但市場仍將保持促銷狀態。這就是為什麼我們啟動促銷活動,特別是在樣品方面,特雷西之前所做的贈送積分正在減少,折扣水平呈下降趨勢,這就是比例模型的變化。

  • But all in all, I just want to make sure that we understand that despite the short-term softness of the market in Mainland China, the overall trend of Chinese consumers is positive and this trend is expected to accelerate in the future.

    但總而言之,我只是想確保我們了解,儘管中國大陸市場短期疲軟,但中國消費者的整體趨勢是正面的,而這種趨勢預計未來將加速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • So I wanted to clarify, I think Olivia had asked about it, but on the trade inventory in China, it sounds like on certain SKUs, certain parts of the portfolio, you're ahead of schedule and clearing that inventory backlog. But the total portfolio seems like it didn't quite hit that April 1 target you had. So is that the right read?

    所以我想澄清一下,我認為奧利維亞已經問過這個問題,但就中國的貿易庫存而言,聽起來像是在某些SKU、投資組合的某些部分上,您提前完成了庫存積壓工作。但總的投資組合似乎並沒有完全達到您設定的 4 月 1 日目標。那麼這樣的讀法正確嗎?

  • And just your confidence in being able to ship to consumption across the total portfolio in the fourth quarter? Is that intact? Or is that part of the lower sort of organic outlook for the fourth quarter versus what was implied back in December. The second question that I really want to -- sorry, go ahead, Tracey. And I can follow up if that's okay.

    您對第四季整個投資組合交付消費的信心如何?那完好無損嗎?或者這是第四季度有機前景相對於 12 月的預測較低的一部分。我真正想問的第二個問題——抱歉,請繼續,崔西。如果可以的話我可以跟進。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, no, go ahead with your second question, Steve.

    不,不,繼續你的第二個問題,史蒂夫。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • Well, that was a clarification. So I wanted to pivot actually to Clinique on Amazon. Historically, you've cited for a long time, hurdles launching on that platform that were at least to me, a combination of questions around achievable unit economics on that platform, the brand experience for consumers and being able to curate that effectively. And then just your own sort of visibility into the required consumer insights. So just to the extent that that's correct, how did you overcome those hurdles and get to a point where Clinique on Amazon in your mind is the right time for that?

    嗯,這是一個澄清。所以我想實際上轉向亞馬遜上的倩碧。從歷史上看,您已經提到了很長一段時間,至少對我來說,在該平台上推出的障礙是圍繞該平台上可實現的單位經濟效益、消費者的品牌體驗以及有效策劃的能力的綜合問題。然後就是您自己對所需消費者洞察的了解。那麼,如果這是正確的,那麼您是如何克服這些障礙並達到您認為亞馬遜上的倩碧是合適時機的呢?

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay, Steve. So I'll take the first part of that question on the inventory in Asia travel retail and Fabrizio will take the Amazon-Clinique follow-up question. Regarding our -- the inventory in trade in Asia travel retail, we did reach the objectives that we had in the third quarter actually before April. And so the reason that we ended up shifting a bit more from a -- or doing a bit more from a replenishment standpoint in the third quarter is because we actually reached those levels a bit earlier than what we had anticipated.

    好吧,史蒂夫。因此,我將回答有關亞洲旅遊零售庫存的問題的第一部分,Fabrizio 將回答亞馬遜-倩碧的後續問題。關於我們的亞洲旅遊零售貿易庫存,我們確實在四月之前實現了第三季的目標。因此,我們最終在第三季從補貨的角度進行了更多調整,或者說做了更多調整,是因為我們實際上比我們預期的要早一些達到這些水平。

  • We anticipate reaching them by April, which is the beginning of the fourth quarter, obviously and we reached them within the third quarter. So that is the reason why some of the shipments were a bit higher in the third quarter, and we will expect the retail sell-through in the fourth quarter. And so -- and as Fabrizio mentioned, we are expecting as well an acceleration of retail in the fourth quarter.

    我們預計在四月(第四季初)之前達到目標,顯然我們在第三季內達到了目標。這就是為什麼第三季一些出貨量略高的原因,我們預計第四季的零售銷售情況會有所改善。因此,正如法布里奇奧所提到的,我們預計第四季零售業也會加速。

  • Just remember for the cadence of what we're anniversary-ing, we actually had some disruption even in the fourth quarter as it related to Hainan last year. So we are going to see a bit of a disconnect between retail and net for a couple of quarters because of the significance of the interruptions that we had both at the beginning of the third quarter last year and the end of the fourth quarter last year as well. And so we would expect that net will, as we replenish relative to the comparison year-over-year to last year, then that would be ahead of retail, but we will be maintaining the inventory levels in the range that we and our retailers have agreed to.

    請記住,我們週年慶的節奏實際上甚至在第四季度就受到了一些幹擾,因為它與去年的海南有關。因此,我們將在幾個季度內看到零售和網路之間出現一些脫節,因為去年第三季初和去年第四季末的中斷非常重要,出色地。因此,我們預計,當我們相對於去年同期進行補充時,淨額將領先於零售,但我們將把庫存水準維持在我們和我們的零售商所擁有的範圍內同意。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And on Clinique on Amazon, I want to say, one of the important progress we are making on Clinique is the initiative of building on Clinique heritage in active derma and relaunch the brands in North America and U.K. in this moment and globally soon on this overall platform.

    是的。在亞馬遜上的倩碧上,我想說的是,我們在倩碧上取得的重要進展之一是在活性真皮領域建立倩碧傳統的舉措,並在此時此刻在北美和英國重新推出該品牌,並很快在全球重新推出該品牌。

  • The Amazon introduction in the U.S. is also right for Clinique in the context of this big relaunch because a lot of new consumers that are very high consumers of active derma are also in this chart. Amazon provides expanded consumer reach, a lot of new consumers, we expect to recruit to engage and to educate new consumer by this new channel.

    在這次大規模重新推出的背景下,亞馬遜在美國的推出對倩碧來說也是正確的,因為許多新消費者是活性真皮的非常高的消費者也在這張圖表中。亞馬遜提供了擴大的消費者覆蓋範圍,大量的新消費者,我們希望透過這個新管道招募來吸引和教育新消費者。

  • Amazon, in this moment, is a fast-growing online platform in the U.S. and their Premium Beauty Store has been clearly a contributor to the overall market growth and particularly has been an important brand discovery for some consumers and also consumers are new consumers to Clinique.

    目前,亞馬遜是美國一個快速成長的線上平台,其高級美容商店顯然為整體市場成長做出了貢獻,特別是對於一些消費者來說是一個重要的品牌發現,而且這些消費者也是倩碧的新消費者。

  • And so the early results are very promising. And the first period has been extraordinarily positive, frankly and we have expectation that this will continue and will accelerate over time. So part of your question, why was the right moment now, I think because now the model of Amazon has evolved in a situation where there is a better fit between the Clinique brands and the Amazon model and the opportunity to communicate the heritage, the equity, the education and the various ideas behind the science of active derma of Clinique is now there.

    因此,早期結果非常有希望。坦白說,第一階段的情況非常積極,我們預計這種情況將持續下去,並隨著時間的推移而加速。所以你的問題的一部分是,為什麼現在是正確的時機,我認為因為現在亞馬遜的模式已經發展到這樣一種情況:倩碧品牌和亞馬遜模式之間有更好的契合度,並且有機會傳達傳統、股權,倩碧活性真皮科學背後的教育和各種理念現在都在那裡。

  • And so we believe the brand can express its fundamentals correctly on the platform and the work that the Clinique team has done in providing amazing asset quality of execution to achieve a very good quality expression of the brand on the platform also reassured us that is the right moment and is a very good fit. And as I said, initial results are confirming that.

    因此,我們相信該品牌能夠在平台上正確地表達其基本原理,而倩碧團隊在提供令人驚嘆的資產執行品質方面所做的工作,以在平台上實現品牌的良好品質表達,也讓我們確信這是正確的時刻,非常合適。正如我所說,初步結果證實了這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

  • Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD

    Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD

  • I have a question for Fabrizio and then one clarification for Tracey. Fabrizio, I have a question on the U.S. sales. If you're seeing any acceleration in shipments as you exit the quarter, it seems that the third quarter was still negative, excluding the strength in Brazil and Mexico. So I wonder if you can comment on how this innovation that you're putting and more money behind M·A·C and Clinique has been handing out as you exit the quarter? And also a clarification for Tracey. I appreciate all the details of the profit recovery into fiscal '25.

    我有一個問題想問 Fabrizio,然後需要向 Tracey 澄清。 Fabrizio,我有一個關於美國銷售的問題。如果您在本季結束時發現出貨量有所加速,那麼第三季似乎仍然是負數,不包括巴西和墨西哥的強勁表現。因此,我想知道您是否可以評論一下,當您退出本季度時,您在 M·A·C 和倩碧背後投入的這項創新和更多資金是如何發放的?還有特蕾西的澄清。我很欣賞 25 財年利潤恢復的所有細節。

  • By my math, roughly the $700 million operating profit benefit at the midpoint. Should we be thinking of this benefit being mostly spread with seasonality and excluding the shorter quarters or mostly back half weighted as you do this plan.

    根據我的計算,大約 7 億美元的營業利潤受益於中點。當您執行此計劃時,我們是否應該考慮此收益主要隨季節性分佈,並排除較短的季度或大部分後半加權。

  • Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

    Tracey Thomas Travis - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I'll take your last part of the question first. We'll give more guidance on the calendarization of the profit recovery plan in August. We're still -- we're well into the finalization of some of those plans and making -- taking some decisions within the next couple of months. So we'll be able to provide you with much better guidance on calendarization in the August time frame.

    所以我先回答你問題的最後一部分。我們將在 8 月就利潤恢復計畫的日曆安排提供更多指導。我們仍在——我們正在敲定其中一些計劃並製定——在接下來的幾個月內做出一些決定。因此,我們將能夠為您提供有關八月時間範圍內日曆化的更好指導。

  • Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

    Fabrizio Freda - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. On the U.S., no, I think -- actually, U.S. in quarter 3 has been growing low single -- sorry, North America in quarter 3 is growing low single digit. And if you exclude the M·A·C loyalty program, actually it's getting closer to mid-single digits. So is -- there is growth in North America in said this, there is softness in consumer sentiment in this moment, also the -- and the market growth is moderating in North America. So obviously, there is pressure in -- particularly in certain channels.

    是的。在美國,不,我認為 - 實際上,美國第三季度的增長一直處於低個位數 - 抱歉,北美第三季度的增長處於低個位數。如果你排除 M·A·C 忠誠度計劃,實際上它已經接近中個位數。北美的成長也是如此,此時消費者信心也疲軟,北美的市場成長正在放緩。顯然,特別是在某些管道中存在壓力。

  • There is pressure, but the quarter 3 was in the right direction and it was in line with our goals. And for us, the positive is that we had, for example, a positive impact on Clinique on the part of March. And in this part of March, already, we saw the impact of that positive impact of that. If we -- you can assume that we will have in the full quarter for the impact of Clinique on Amazon, this, for example, will be a positive element in the mix. We assure that.

    有壓力,但第三季的方向是正確的,並且符合我們的目標。對我們來說,正面的一面是,例如,我們在三月對倩碧產生了正面的影響。在三月的這個時候,我們已經看到了這種正面影響的影響。例如,如果我們——你可以假設我們將在整個季度看到倩碧對亞馬遜的影響,那麼這將是其中的一個積極因素。我們保證。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's question-and-answer session. If you were unable to join for the entire call, playback will be available at 01:00 p.m. Eastern Time today through May 15. To hear a recording of the call, please dial (877) 344-7529 using passcode 5758677. That concludes today's Estée Lauder conference call. I would like to thank you all for your participation, and wish you all a good day. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的問答環節到此結束。如果您無法加入整通通話,則可在下午 01:00 進行播放。東部時間今天至 5 月 15 日。我衷心感謝大家的參與,並祝福大家有美好的一天。現在您可以斷開線路。