Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to DraftKings' third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加 DraftKings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alan Ellingson, DraftKings' Chief Financial Officer.

我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，DraftKings 財務長 Alan Ellingson。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed further in our SEC filings, that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecasts.

我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到風險、不確定性和我們在SEC 文件中進一步討論的其他因素的影響，這可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的歷史結果或我們的預測有重大差異。

We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance.

在這次電話會議中，管理階層還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標可能有助於評估 DraftKings 的營運表現。

These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings' financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

這些措施不應被孤立地考慮，也不應取代 DraftKings 根據 GAAP 編制的財務業績。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release and presentation, which can be found on our website and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳可在我們的收益發布和演示中找到，這些內容可以在我們的網站和向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到。

Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on the business.

DraftKings 聯合創始人兼執行長 Jason Robins 主持了今天的電話會議，他將分享一些開場白和業務最新動態。

Following Jason's remarks, I will provide a review of our financials.

在傑森的演講之後，我將回顧我們的財務狀況。

We will then open the line to questions.

然後我們將開放提問熱線。

I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

我現在將把電話轉給傑森羅賓斯。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining.

早安，感謝大家的加入。

As you can see in our results, our core value drivers are strong.

正如您在我們的結果中看到的，我們的核心價值驅動力很強。

In the third quarter, we acquired more online Sportsbook and iGaming customers year over year, while CAC declined nearly 20%.

第三季度，我們獲得了更多的線上運動博彩和 iGaming 客戶，而 CAC 下降了近 20%。

Structural Sportsbook hold percentage continued to increase.

結構性體育博彩持有比例持續增加。

Our trajectory here is encouraging with NFL parlay mix tracking up more than 500 basis points year over year.

我們的發展軌跡令人鼓舞，NFL 連贏組合年增超過 500 個基點。

Our promotional reinvestment rate improved by 300 basis points year over year as a percentage of gross gaming revenue, even though we acquired more customers and had higher new customer promotion.

儘管我們獲得了更多客戶並進行了更高的新客戶促銷，但我們的促銷再投資率佔博彩總收入的百分比仍同比提高了 300 個基點。

These core value drivers collectively contributed to a 300 basis point year-over-year improvement in adjusted gross margin for the third quarter of 2024.

這些核心價值驅動因素共同推動 2024 年第三季調整後毛利率年增 300 個基點。

While we experienced the most customer-friendly stretch of NFL sport outcomes we've ever seen early in the fourth quarter, which pressures our revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the short term, the overall trajectory of our business is strong.

雖然我們在第四季度初經歷了有史以來最有利於客戶的 NFL 體育賽事成果，這在短期內給我們的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 帶來壓力，但我們業務的整體軌跡仍然強勁。

We are excited to reiterate our fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $900 million to $1 billion, and introduce our inaugural fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance, which calls for 31% year-over-year growth at our guidance midpoint.

我們很高興重申我們的2025 財年調整後EBITDA 指導範圍為9 億美元至10 億美元，並推出我們的首個2025 財年收入指導，該指導要求在我們的指導中點實現31% 的同比增長。

Even more importantly, our Sportsbook product is continuing to improve, which positions us well for this NBA season and beyond.

更重要的是，我們的運動博彩產品正在不斷改進，這使我們在本賽季及以後的 NBA 賽季中處於有利地位。

This fall, we launched new and exclusive NBA markets, specifically designed to engage customers with key game story lines and expanded our in-house same-game parlay offering to more than 15 new MBA markets.

今年秋天，我們推出了新的獨家 NBA 市場，專門為透過關鍵遊戲故事情節吸引客戶而設計，並將我們內部的同場遊戲連本帶利產品擴展到超過 15 個新的 MBA 市場。

We also appreciate being recognized in a recent third-party report is the number one overall Sportsbook app in the US, ranking first in the user experience, betting interface and features categories.

我們也很高興在最近的第三方報告中被認可為美國排名第一的體育博彩應用程序，在用戶體驗、投注介面和功能類別中排名第一。

Our apps now rank number one in Sportsbook and numbers one and two in iGaming with the DraftKings Casino and Golden Nugget Casino brands, respectively.

我們的應用程式現在在體育博彩中排名第一，在 iGaming 中分別以 DraftKings Casino 和 Golden Nugget Casino 品牌排名第一和第二。

Lastly, I'd like to touch on the ballot initiative in Missouri.

最後，我想談談密蘇裡州的投票倡議。

Earlier this week, Missouri voters passed a ballot initiative legalizing online sports betting in the state, following a productive and efficient campaign that was backed by a wide consortium of sports teams and gaming operators.

本週早些時候，密蘇裡州選民通過了一項投票動議，將該州的線上體育博彩合法化，此前該動議得到了廣泛的運動隊和博彩運營商聯盟的支持，富有成效且高效。

Missouri represents approximately 2% of the US population, and we expect to launch our Sportsbook product in the state pending market access, licensure, regulatory approvals and contractual approvals.

密蘇裡州人口約占美國人口的 2%，我們預計將在該州推出我們的體育博彩產品，等待市場准入、許可、監管部門批准和合約批准。

In closing, our business fundamentals are healthy, and we are excited about our financial trajectory into 2025 and beyond.

最後，我們的業務基本面是健康的，我們對 2025 年及以後的財務軌跡感到興奮。

With that, I will turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Alan Ellingson.

接下來，我會將其交給我們的財務長艾倫‧埃林森 (Alan Ellingson)。

Thank you, Jason.

謝謝你，傑森。

I'll hit the highlights, including our third-quarter performance and our fiscal year 2024 and 2025 guidance.

我將重點介紹重點，包括我們第三季的業績以及 2024 年和 2025 財年的指導。

Please note that all income statement measures discussed except for revenue, are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis.

請注意，除收入外，討論的所有損益表指標均基於非公認會計準則調整後的 EBITDA 基礎。

As Jason mentioned, our business fundamentals were healthy in the third quarter.

正如傑森所提到的，我們第三季的業務基本面保持健康。

We grew revenue 39% year over year to $1.095 billion and generated a $59 million adjusted EBITDA loss.

我們的營收年增 39%，達到 10.95 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 損失為 5,900 萬美元。

Our online Sportsbook gross gaming revenue increased 39% and iGaming gross gaming revenue grew 26% when compared to the third quarter of 2023.

與 2023 年第三季相比，我們的線上運動博彩總遊戲收入成長了 39%，iGaming 遊戲總收入成長了 26%。

Newly-acquired online Sportsbook and iGaming customers increased 14% year over year, while our tax for these customers improved nearly 20% year over year.

新獲得的線上運動博彩和 iGaming 客戶同比增長 14%，而我們對這些客戶的稅收同比提高了近 20%。

Structural Sportsbook hold percentages increased year over year as customers continued to enjoy our parlay offerings.

隨著客戶繼續享受我們的連贏彩產品，結構性體育博彩持有百分比逐年增加。

Commercial reinvestment rates for our online Sportsbook and iGaming improved by 300 basis points year over year as we reduced promotions for lower-value customer segments and began to mitigate the impact of the Illinois tax increase.

由於我們減少了針對低價值客戶群的促銷活動並開始減輕伊利諾伊州稅收增加的影響，我們的線上體育博彩和 iGaming 的商業再投資率同比提高了 300 個基點。

Adjusted gross margin was above our expectations at 40% and increased 300 basis points year over year.

調整後毛利率高於我們 40% 的預期，年增 300 個基點。

Looking ahead, I'll briefly comment on our fiscal year 2024 guidance before discussing our expectations for fiscal year 2025.

展望未來，在討論我們對 2025 財年的預期之前，我將簡要地評論我們的 2024 財年指引。

On August 1, 2024, we guided fiscal year 2024 revenues of $5.05 billion to $5.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $340 million to $420 million.

2024 年 8 月 1 日，我們預計 2024 財年營收為 50.5 億美元至 52.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元至 4.2 億美元。

Our third-quarter financial performance was consistent with our expectations.

我們第三季的財務表現符合我們的預期。

NFL outcomes early in the fourth quarter, however, have resulted in the headwinds to revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $250 million and $175 million, respectively.

然而，NFL 第四季初的結果對收入和調整後 EBITDA 造成了不利影響，分別為 2.5 億美元和 1.75 億美元。

We have also made significant progress in identifying customers with lower lifetime values across our footprint and are improving our expectation for promotions for the remainder of the fiscal year 2024 accordingly.

我們在識別整個業務範圍內生命週期價值較低的客戶方面也取得了重大進展，並相應提高了對 2024 財年剩餘時間的促銷預期。

And we are continuing to drive expense efficiency throughout the organization as we balance growth and profitability.

在平衡成長和獲利能力的同時，我們將繼續提高整個組織的費用效率。

As a result, we now expect fiscal year 2024 revenues of $4.85 billion to $4.95 billion, and fiscal year adjusted EBITDA of $240 million to $280 million.

因此，我們現在預計 2024 財年營收為 48.5 億美元至 49.5 億美元，財年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.4 億美元至 2.8 億美元。

Moving on to our fiscal year 2025 guidance.

接下來是我們的 2025 財政年度指導。

In November 2023, we stated our expectation that fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA would be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion.

2023 年 11 月，我們表示預計 2025 財年調整後 EBITDA 將在 9 億美元至 10 億美元之間。

We reiterated this expectation in August.

我們在八月重申了這項預期。

Given strong underlying momentum in our core value drivers, we continue to expect fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $900 million to $1 billion.

鑑於我們核心價值驅動因素的強勁潛在動力，我們繼續預期 2025 財年調整後 EBITDA 為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Today we are introducing a fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance range of $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, which equates to year-over-year growth of 27% to 35% compared to our updated fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance midpoint.

今天，我們推出 2025 財年營收指引範圍為 62 億至 66 億美元，這相當於與我們更新的 2024 財年營收指引中位數相比，年增 27% 至 35%。

We expect structural Sportsbook hold percentage of 11% in fiscal year 2025 with further upside in fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

我們預計 2025 財年結構性運動博彩持股比例將達到 11%，並在 2026 財年及以後進一步上升。

We expect our fiscal year 2025 adjusted gross margin to be in the range of 45% to 47%.

我們預計 2025 財年調整後毛利率將在 45% 至 47% 之間。

We expect stock-based compensation expense to represent approximately 6% of revenue in fiscal year 2025.

我們預計 2025 財年股票薪酬費用將佔營收的 6% 左右。

Additionally, we expect the bridge between adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow to be $100 million and, therefore, expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $850 million in fiscal year 2025.

此外，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 與自由現金流之間的橋樑為 1 億美元，因此預計 2025 財年將產生約 8.5 億美元的自由現金流。

That concludes our remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

我們的發言到此結束，現在我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Shaun Kelley，美國銀行。

Jason, if we could start off, I think most of our questions this morning from investors have really kind of been around the flow-through assumptions for next year.

傑森，如果我們可以開始的話，我認為今天早上投資者提出的大部分問題實際上都圍繞著明年的流量假設。

So obviously, some pros and cons.

顯然，有一些優點和缺點。

But where we left it a quarter ago, I think you had spoken about a 50% flow-through kind of on a long-term basis, and I think that's somewhat some of long-term objectives had kind of pinpointed to.

但我們在一個季度前留下的地方，我認為您已經談到了 50% 的長期流動率，我認為這在某種程度上是一些長期目標的具體體現。

This year, for next year, you're looking at 39%.

今年和明年，您看到的比例是 39%。

So can you just talk about some of the puts and takes behind those variables as well as sort of how it interacts with what you're seeing on the revenue and customer acquisition side at this point?

那麼，您能否談談這些變數背後的一些因素，以及它與您目前在收入和客戶獲取方面看到的情況如何相互作用？

Thanks, Shaun.

謝謝，肖恩。

Yes, so definitely feel 50% is about the right number long term for flow-through.

是的，所以絕對認為 50% 是長期流量的正確數字。

I think next year, what you're seeing, around 40% rather than 50%, is that we have, as we've noted in the last couple of quarters, been seeing unexpectedly strong customer acquisition.

我認為明年，您會看到，正如我們在過去幾季所指出的，大約 40% 而不是 50% 的客戶獲取量出乎意料地強勁。

And that's a really great thing for the long-term potential in the TAM of the industry.

對於該行業 TAM 的長期潛力來說，這確實是一件很棒的事情。

But obviously, we want to be cautious next year that we don't end up underestimating customer acquisition promotions and, therefore, having a higher flow-through guide than what actually materializes.

但顯然，明年我們要保持謹慎，不要低估客戶獲取促銷活動，因此，我們的流量指南比實際實現的要高。

So that's really the thinking behind that.

這就是背後的想法。

As we've noted in the past, should customer acquisitions slow, I think whenever that happens, there'll be some short-term adjusted EBITDA upside.

正如我們過去所指出的，如果客戶獲取速度放緩，我認為無論何時發生這種情況，短期調整後的 EBITDA 都會有一些上升空間。

So that could very well be the case in '25.

所以25年的情況很可能就是這樣。

Obviously, we want to see the continued customer acquisition because that bodes well for '26 and beyond.

顯然，我們希望看到持續的客戶獲取，因為這對 26 年及以後來說是個好兆頭。

But should there be less than expected or I should say, a slowdown in customer acquisition could definitely be some upside to that flow-through rate that you mentioned.

但如果低於預期，或者我應該說，客戶獲取速度的放緩肯定會對您提到的流通率產生一些好處。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

So just rolling through the rest of the year, one of the discussions we've been having is how do we get comfortable month to month and quarter to quarter that the kinds of impact that we see here don't recur and/or flip back in the more positive direction.

因此，回顧今年剩下的時間，我們一直在討論的一個問題是，我們如何才能每月、每季度都放心，我們在這裡看到的那種影響不會再次發生和/或逆轉向更積極的方向發展。

I guess what I'm asking is if you could talk about some of the levers that you have at your disposal and how the business evolves to mitigate some of the luck factor that showed up here.

我想我要問的是，您是否可以談談您可以使用的一些槓桿，以及業務如何發展以減輕這裡出現的一些運氣因素。

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

Obviously, the shorter the period, the more the volatility and sport outcomes can affect things.

顯然，時間越短，波動性和運動結果對事情的影響就越大。

So only being about a month into Q4, I think just the timing of when you're seeing the guide, it's obviously going to -- a month period is going to have more volatility.

因此，距離第四季度只有大約一個月的時間，我認為就在您看到該指南的時間點，顯然一個月的時間段將會有更大的波動。

And as you noted, it could swing either way.

正如您所指出的，它可能會向任何方向搖擺。

Just last night, Bengals make that 2-point conversion and that last touchdown doesn't go in for a fourth parlay leg to hit for the touchdown partway, then would have been very different outcomes.

就在昨晚，孟加拉虎隊完成了 2 分轉換，而最後一次達陣並沒有進入第四次連贏中途達陣，那麼結果將會非常不同。

So things can swing either way.

所以事情可能會朝任何一個方向發展。

I think certainly over longer periods of time, it normalizes.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，它肯定會正常化。

It was a little bit of a down year this year.

今年是有點低迷的一年。

This year, we are around -- we'll expect to be around 10.5% structural hold, and we'll finish just over 10% actual, at least that's what we're tracking now, maybe sport outcomes will improve.

今年，我們預計結構性保持在 10.5% 左右，實際完成率將略高於 10%，至少這是我們現在正在追蹤的，也許體育比賽的成績會有所改善。

But that's typically, over the course of a year, a pretty big number.

但這通常在一年內是一個相當大的數字。

So I think over a year, it's pretty smooth.

所以我覺得一年多了，還是比較順利的。

And what you'll see, I think, as the business evolves, right now, our adjusted EBITDA is a small percentage of our revenue, as that continues to go up and we approach our long-term 30%-plus margins, you're going to see the impact of sport outcomes because they affect revenue flow-through at a much -- excuse me, affect the EBITDA at a much lower percentage.

我認為，你會看到，隨著業務的發展，目前我們調整後的 EBITDA 只占我們收入的一小部分，隨著這一比例繼續上升，我們的長期利潤率將達到 30% 以上，你我們將看到體育賽事結果的影響，因為它們對收入流的影響很大——對不起，對EBITDA 的影響要低得多。

Think about it this way.

這樣想吧。

Next year, our adjusted EBITDA is going to double at the top end of our guidance range, but we expect revenue to grow at just over 30% pace.

明年，我們調整後的 EBITDA 將在指導範圍的上限翻倍，但我們預計收入將以略高於 30% 的速度增長。

So the impact of sport outcome on revenue is obviously going to be the same, but on EBITDA, it could be -- excuse me, would be about 30 -- a little over 30% higher.

因此，體育賽事對收入的影響顯然是相同的，但就 EBITDA 而言，可能會高出約 30%，略高於 30%。

But on EBITDA, it will be on a number that's four times bigger.

但就 EBITDA 而言，這個數字將是原來的四倍。

So as we scale and the business generates more and more EBITDA, these impacts will become more rounding errors.

因此，隨著我們規模的擴大以及業務產生越來越多的 EBITDA，這些影響將變得更加捨入誤差。

But obviously now in a year where we're just turning positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in company history, it's going to be a bigger impact.

但顯然，今年我們剛在公司歷史上首次實現調整後 EBITDA 正值，這將產生更大的影響。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great.

偉大的。

One small thing, just wondering, I don't know if you said the hold percentage in Q3.

一件小事，只是想知道，我不知道你是否提到了第三季的持有百分比。

And then the bigger question is, with Illinois you've talked about changing promotional activity to kind of offset the higher tax.

然後更大的問題是，在伊利諾伊州，您談到了改變促銷活動以抵消更高的稅收。

Can you talk a little bit about, do you feel like you've sort of fully figured out how to do that, or is that still a work in progress?

你能談談，你是否覺得你已經完全弄清楚如何做到這一點，或者這仍然是一項正在進行的工作？

In other words, are you where you want to be with that trade-off?

換句話說，您是否願意透過這種權衡實現目標？

Yes.

是的。

So hold was as expected in Q3.

因此，第三季的持有符合預期。

We didn't see any -- it was nice to actually have a neutral quarter, especially with NFL starting.

我們沒有看到任何——實際上有一個中立的季度真是太好了，尤其是在 NFL 開始的時候。

And then as far as Illinois goes, I think we've begun to implement some things.

然後就伊利諾伊州而言，我認為我們已經開始實施一些事情。

We're still figuring out exactly what the right levels are.

我們仍在弄清楚正確的水平到底是多少。

But if you see sort of in the bridge that we shared, we included some promo efficiency.

但如果你在我們分享的橋樑中看到一些，我們包括了一些促銷效率。

And within that, one of the components is some mitigation in Illinois.

其中之一是伊利諾伊州的一些緩解措施。

So we have begun to implement that, but I wouldn't say that we fully realized it, and it's not a huge component of the guide next year.

所以我們已經開始實施這一點，但我不會說我們完全意識到了這一點，而且它也不是明年指南的重要組成部分。

So potentially some upside there depending on how things evolve.

因此，根據事情的發展情況，可能會有一些好處。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank.

卡洛桑塔雷利，德意志銀行。

Jason, I was wondering, so within the context of the 31% revenue guidance for next year.

傑森，我想知道，在明年 31% 收入指引的背景下。

To the extent you can't -- like how would you parse that between market growth across both iGaming and sports betting, market share and promotional extraction?

在某種程度上你不能——例如你如何解析 iGaming 和體育博彩的市場成長、市場份額和促銷提取之間的關係？

If you could kind of bucket maybe the growth across those three verticals or any kind of direction you can give on that?

如果您可以對這三個垂直領域的成長進行分類，或者您可以就此給出任何方向嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So we do bottoms-up build.

所以我們進行自下而上的建構。

So we typically will look at cohort data.

因此，我們通常會查看隊列資料。

Implicit in that, I think, is that market share doesn't change, because we're basing our cohort data on what we've seen in the past, and we're basing our customer acquisition estimates on what we've seen in the past.

我認為，這隱含著市場份額不會改變，因為我們的隊列數據是基於我們過去所看到的情況，而我們的客戶獲取估計是基於我們在過去所看到的情況。

So I think that's going to be basically implying flat market share.

所以我認為這基本上意味著市場佔有率持平。

That said, we don't actually forecast it that way.

也就是說，我們其實並沒有那樣預測。

It's more of a top-down exercise.

這更像是一種自上而下的練習。

We say, okay, if we kept market share flat, what would this imply for market growth, and saying, did you check it that way?

我們說，好吧，如果我們保持市場份額不變，這對市場成長意味著什麼，然後說，你是這樣檢查的嗎？

On the promotional side, we've been -- I think, as I noted, a little cautious with customer acquisition environment having been so hot.

在促銷方面，我認為，正如我所指出的，我們對如此熱門的客戶獲取環境持謹慎態度。

So that one, I think, could be a potential upside if there is lower customer acquisition.

因此，我認為，如果客戶獲取量減少，這可能是潛在的好處。

But of course, that's not a much benefit in 2026 and beyond, but could be some upside on the EBITDA front for next year.

當然，這在 2026 年及以後不會帶來太大好處，但可能會為明年的 EBITDA 帶來一些好處。

But we weren't too aggressive with that number.

但我們對這個數字並沒有太激進。

So it's not a huge component of it.

所以它並不是它的一個重要組成部分。

So really it's more about just kind of natural market growth, handle growth on our side, and then a little bit of structural hold improvement.

所以實際上，這更多的是一種自然的市場成長，處理我們這邊的成長，然後一點結構性的改善。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just on the promotional side, is -- obviously 300 was the number this quarter.

然後就促銷方面而言，顯然本季的數字是 300。

Is that kind of in the ballpark of what you're looking to extract next year for the entirety of the year?

這是否符合您明年一整年的預期目標？

Or is it something a little more muted just based on what you just said, i.e., the customer acquisition environment?

還是僅僅根據您剛才所說的，即客戶獲取環境，這個問題就比較溫和了？

Yes, it's a little more muted just because we've been cautious on the customer acquisition environment, but it's really going to depend on that.

是的，這只是因為我們對客戶獲取環境持謹慎態度，所以這有點低調，但這確實取決於此。

I mean the decline is going to happen just based on the fact that the base is maturing and it's more existing users.

我的意思是，這種下降的發生只是基於這樣一個事實：基礎正在成熟並且現有用戶越來越多。

It's just a question of how hot customer acquisition is.

這只是客戶獲取有多熱的問題。

So I think we've been a little more cautious and have had a bit more muted of an assumption.

所以我認為我們更加謹慎，並且對假設更加低調。

And we'll see how that plays out.

我們將看看結果如何。

Great.

偉大的。

And if I could, just one follow-up.

如果可以的話，請跟進一次。

You guys obviously provided some good disclosure around your MUPs and ARPMUPs in the period ex Jackpocket the ARPMUP up growth, I believe, was 8%.

顯然，你們在 Jackpocket 期間的 MUP 和 ARPMUP 方面提供了一些很好的揭露，我相信 ARPMUP 成長了 8%。

Is that just a mix issue of some of the newer customers you're bringing in?

這只是您引入的一些新客戶的混合問題嗎？

Or is that something that maybe relates to some of the legacy customers and you guys getting a little bit smarter with managing volatility and whatnot?

或者這可能與一些老客戶有關，而你們在管理波動性等方面變得更加聰明？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's more the latter.

我認為更多的是後者。

Obviously, as we bring on new customers, Jackpocket, there's a lot of moving parts.

顯然，當我們引入新客戶 Jackpocket 時，有很多變化的部分。

So one of the things that we noted in our letter is that we do intend to make some additional disclosures at the product level next year, and we're still sort of sorting out exactly what those are.

因此，我們在信中指出的一件事是，我們確實打算明年在產品層面進行一些額外的揭露，我們仍在整理這些內容。

But I realize it's kind of confusing with the way we have it now, especially with all the different product launched that we have.

但我意識到這與我們現在的方式有點令人困惑，尤其是我們推出的所有不同產品。

So that's something we're taking a look at so that we can hopefully provide some more useful disclosures for all of you.

因此，我們正在研究這一點，以便我們能夠為大家提供一些更有用的披露資訊。

Joe Greff, JPMorgan.

喬‧格雷夫，摩根大通。

I'll start with the question that Carlos just asked, maybe ask it somewhat differently.

我將從卡洛斯剛才問的問題開始，也許會以不同的方式提出。

If you can look back at the 3Q and parse between OSB and iGaming segments, can you talk about spend per existing user versus newly acquired users, how much of a delta or maybe lower spend new users might have relative to some of your longer-term, maybe more VIP customers?

如果您可以回顧第三季並解析OSB 和iGaming 細分市場，您能否談談現有用戶的支出與新獲得的用戶的支出，新用戶相對於您的一些長期支出可能有多少增量或可能更低的支出，也許更多的VIP客戶？

Sure.

當然。

So obviously, with the caveat that it's still early.

顯然，需要注意的是，現在還為時過早。

I do think that the users we acquired in Q3 look a lot like customers we've been acquiring recently, certainly maybe not the first year in a state cohort, but very similar to the more recent cohorts.

我確實認為我們在第三季度獲得的用戶看起來很像我們最近獲得的客戶，當然可能不是州隊列中的第一年，但與最近的隊列非常相似。

So it seems like really the story is that, after the first year or two, you do get some decline in customer LTV, but then it seems to plateau.

因此，看起來真正的故事是，在一兩年後，客戶生命週期價值確實有所下降，但隨後似乎趨於平穩。

It doesn't really seem to be lower in years four, five, six and beyond.

第四年、第五年、第六年及以後的情況似乎並沒有真正降低。

So that's kind of what we're seeing.

這就是我們所看到的。

But again, very early, we're basing this on, for most of these customers, only a month or two of data.

但同樣，在很早的時候，對於大多數客戶來說，我們僅基於一兩個月的數據。

So obviously, we'll see how that plays out as NBA progresses and things like that.

顯然，隨著 NBA 的進展以及類似的事情，我們將看到這一點如何發揮。

But from what we can tell, it seems like they're very similar quality to who we've been acquiring.

但據我們所知，他們的品質似乎與我們收購的人非常相似。

Great.

偉大的。

And then with respect to your 2025 revenue and EBITDA guidance range, what's contemplated at the high end versus what's baked into the low end?

然後，就 2025 年收入和 EBITDA 指導範圍而言，高端的預期與低端的預期是什麼？

What's that $100 million EBITDA bridge?

1 億美元的 EBITDA 橋樑是什麼？

What's the delta there?

那裡的三角洲是什麼？

The biggest difference is just customer acquisition environment, because that's kind of the hardest thing for us to predict at this point.

最大的差異只是客戶獲取環境，因為這是我們目前最難預測的。

We feel very good about the models we have for our existing cohorts and have been very accurate in forecasting those Obviously, other levers like fixed costs and marketing spend are controllable.

我們對現有群體的模型感覺非常好，並且在預測這些模型方面非常準確。

So it's really much more what does the new customer volume look like and how does that end up affecting new customer promotion levels.

因此，真正重要的是新客戶量是什麼樣的，以及它最終如何影響新客戶的促銷水平。

Great.

偉大的。

And then one final question here.

最後還有一個問題。

Given the aforementioned customer-friendly results in October, have your handle expectations versus a quarter ago called change?

鑑於上述 10 月對客戶友好的結果，您是否處理了與季度前相比的預期變化？

In other words, would 4Q handle actually have gone up relative to three months ago, given these outcomes and what might be stronger engagement?

換句話說，考慮到這些結果以及可能更強的參與度，第四季度的處理量實際上會比三個月前有所上升嗎？

We have seen a little bit of evidence that handle can go up or down based on whether customers are winning or not.

我們已經看到一些證據表明，手柄可以根據客戶是否獲勝而上升或下降。

But it's actually not really that big a number if it is an impact at all.

但如果確實有影響的話，其實並不是那麼大的數字。

I think much more what we see is that people don't need to deposit as much more, but they tend to keep their betting levels at a pretty similar level.

我認為我們看到的更多的是人們不需要存更多的錢，但他們傾向於將投注水平保持在相當相似的水平。

And on the margins, you see some incremental betting.

在邊緣，你會看到一些增量投注。

But for the most part, people just continue to kind of bet as they've been betting at this point.

但在大多數情況下，人們只是繼續像現在這樣下注。

So not something that we built into our assumptions.

所以這不是我們假設的東西。

If there is any of that, it could be upside.

如果有任何一個，它可能是有利的。

Also could be some upside on the payment processing cost side because you don't need to have people depositing again if they have money in their account.

支付處理成本方面也可能有一些好處，因為如果人們的帳戶中有錢，您就不需要再次存款。

So all those things could potentially create upside.

因此，所有這些事情都可能創造積極的一面。

But I think if it is, it's not very significant.

但我認為，即使是這樣，也不是很重要。

So we haven't built it into the guide.

所以我們還沒有將其納入指南中。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Miller, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Ben Miller，高盛。

I guess just on the 25% EBITDA guide, I was wondering if you could expand on what some of the embedded assumptions are in there versus last quarter?

我想就 25% 的 EBITDA 指南而言，我想知道您是否可以擴展其中與上季度相比的一些嵌入假設？

And what some of those moving pieces are that leave the range unchanged against factors that may or may not be new this quarter?

對於本季可能出現或可能不是新出現的因素，哪些因素使範圍保持不變？

You obviously have a revenue guide versus prior expectations.

顯然，您有一個與之前預期不同的收入指南。

It seems like you're mitigating some tax in Illinois.

看來你們正在伊利諾州減免一些稅。

Are there any assumptions from Missouri?

密蘇裡州有任何假設嗎？

Any color around that would be helpful.

周圍的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, I think the general story is that, in Q3, we kind of performed as expected.

所以我的意思是，我認為總體情況是，在第三季度，我們的表現符合預期。

And Q4, outside of sport outcomes, all the fundamentals are pointing towards exactly kind of what we thought, maybe even a little bit better, going into Q3 and Q4.

第四季度，除了體育比賽結果之外，所有基本面都指向我們所認為的，甚至可能更好一點，進入第三季度和第四季度。

So there is maybe some reason to feel more optimism.

因此，也許有一些理由讓我們感到更樂觀。

Obviously, we also got stung by sport outcomes.

顯然，我們也受到了體育比賽結果的影響。

So I think between that and also wanting to be cautious on customer acquisition, we didn't feel comfortable raising the guide at this point.

因此，我認為，除此之外，我們還希望在獲取客戶方面保持謹慎，因此我們在此時提高指南感到不舒服。

But we do see some really interesting things with parlay mix being up 500 basis points year over year in NFL, and NBA off to a very strong start from a mix perspective, that do give us some confidence that there could be some upside.

但我們確實看到了一些非常有趣的事情，NFL 的連本帶利組合同比增長了500 個基點，而NBA 從組合的角度來看有一個非常強勁的開局，這確實給了我們一些信心，認為可能會有一些上升空間。

But right now, we feel like with the data we have, this is the right place to be, and felt like the real macro story was maybe a little upside, but more so that we really reaffirmed over the last couple of quarters all the key fundamentals that led us to feel $900 million to $1 billion was the right number.

但現在，我們覺得根據我們掌握的數據，這是正確的地方，並且感覺真正的宏觀故事可能有點上行，但更重要的是我們在過去幾個季度確實重申了所有關鍵因素基本面讓我們認為9億至10 億美元是正確的數字。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe just a big picture one, Jason.

然後也許只是一幅大圖，傑森。

I'm curious your thoughts on the non-sports betting prediction markets, and whether that's an opportunity, or how you think about that from a product standpoint, from a competition standpoint, as either cannibalizing or an opportunity for OSB and iGaming?

我很好奇您對非體育博彩預測市場的看法，以及這是否是一個機會，或者您如何從產品的角度、從競爭的角度來看待它，對 OSB 和 iGaming 來說是蠶食還是機會？

Yes, I think it's a very interesting thing.

是的，我認為這是一件非常有趣的事。

The market within that that's dominant is election markets, of course, and particularly during presidential elections.

當然，其中占主導地位的市場是選舉市場，尤其是在總統選舉期間。

So I know there's a lot of attention on it over the last few weeks.

所以我知道過去幾週有很多人關注它。

And I do think there could be a place for it outside of elections, but that's really where the interest seems to be now from a demand -- customer demand side.

我確實認為，在選舉之外，它可能還有一席之地，但這確實是現在需求方——客戶需求方的興趣所在。

So definitely something we're looking at in advance of next presidential election and potentially there will be an opportunity to look at something sooner.

因此，我們肯定會在下次總統選舉之前考慮一些事情，並且可能有機會更早地考慮一些事情。

It is a different framework.

這是一個不同的框架。

It's not licensed as a betting product, it's licensed as financial market.

它沒有被許可為博彩產品，而是被許可為金融市場。

So it's definitely a very different thing.

所以這絕對是一件非常不同的事情。

So we'll have to see where it fits in the priority list.

所以我們必須看看它在優先列表中的位置。

But it is something we'll plan on looking at ahead of next election for sure.

但這肯定是我們計劃在下次選舉之前考慮的事情。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格蘭布林，摩根士丹利。

I'm going to try to roll two into one here.

我將嘗試在這裡將二合一。

One is just on the guidance for 2025.

其中之一是關於 2025 年的指導。

I guess, what level of customer acquisition or user growth do you have embedded in the revenue guide?

我想，您在收入指南中嵌入了何種程度的客戶獲取或用戶成長？

And then secondarily, you talked about the 500 basis points increase in parlays within the football season, I guess, what do you think is explicitly driving that?

其次，您談到了足球賽季內連贏彩金增加了 500 個基點，我想，您認為明顯推動這一增長的因素是什麼？

And is that going to carry over into other sports in the next year?

這會在明年延續到其他運動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So great question.

很好的問題。

I think on the first one, as we noted, we are fairly cautious with customer acquisition from a promotional budgeting perspective, but we also are not counting on a lot of volume from customers that we acquire.

我認為，對於第一個問題，正如我們所指出的，從促銷預算的角度來看，我們對客戶獲取相當謹慎，但我們也不指望我們獲取的客戶量很大。

It's mostly existing customers.

大部分都是現有客戶。

So I think that's really been built up from years and years of cohort data, and we feel very good about those assumptions.

所以我認為這確實是根據多年的隊列數據建立的，我們對這些假設感覺非常好。

And then, of course, as we noted, we expect structural hold to be around 11% next year.

當然，正如我們所指出的，我們預計明年的結構性持有量將達到 11% 左右。

So that's another key assumption that we have.

這是我們的另一個關鍵假設。

And then I think -- I'm sorry, what was your second question?

然後我想──抱歉，你的第二個問題是什麼？

Just as you think about -- what's the drivers of the 500 basis points increase in parlays?

正如您所想，連贏彩金增加 500 個基點的驅動因素是什麼？

Does that carry over into other sports, or specific product changes?

這是否會延續到其他運動或特定產品的變化？

Yes.

是的。

It's a great -- so I mean a lot of it is product.

這是一個偉大的——所以我的意思是它很多都是產品。

We've introduced a lot of new features.

我們引進了很多新功能。

We have live SGP markets across NFL, NBA and other sports now.

我們現在在 NFL、NBA 和其他體育項目中都有現場 SGP 市場。

So a lot of it is just product and product availability.

所以很多只是產品和產品可用性。

I think we've really increased our abilities around merchandising and creating interesting player props and combinations of player props into prepacked parlays, and I think that's been a factor.

我認為我們確實提高了商品推銷和創造有趣的玩家道具以及將玩家道具組合到預先包裝的連贏彩中的能力，我認為這是一個因素。

So it's a number of things.

所以這是有很多事情的。

Our marketing approach.

我們的行銷方式。

It's a lot of different pieces moving towards that objective that have driven it.

推動這一目標的是許多不同的部分，以實現這一目標。

As far as does that carryover in other sports, definitely have some encouraging early signs in NBA that we're seeing.

就其他運動的延續而言，我們在 NBA 中肯定看到了一些令人鼓舞的早期跡象。

And for us, that's the other big one, right, because it's the other big sport, but also it's the sport that has such a heavy SGP mix in general and it's just naturally player oriented as a sport.

對我們來說，這是另一個重要的運動，對吧，因為它是另一個重要的運動，但它也是一項總體上具有如此豐富的SGP 組合的運動，而且它作為一項運動自然是以玩家為導向的。

So that's a big one.

所以這是一件大事。

And then baseball, we're also very excited about that being a driver of parlay mix and baseball too.

然後是棒球，我們也對成為連贏彩和棒球的推動者感到非常興奮。

We really pushed on touchdowns this year.

今年我們確實推動了達陣得分。

I think homeruns is a good analogy for that in baseball.

我認為本壘打是棒球運動中的一個很好的類比。

So definitely a lot of translatable insights, I think, but obviously, each sport is different too.

我認為肯定有很多可轉化的見解，但顯然，每項運動也不同。

So we'll have to see as each season starts how it goes.

所以我們必須看看每個賽季開始時情況如何。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

本·柴肯，瑞穗。

Jason, the elevated external marketing for '25 totally makes sense.

Jason，25 年提升的外部行銷完全合理。

But I guess the question is, in '24, you had a similar opportunity to acquire customers that you didn't see coming at the beginning of the year.

但我想問題是，在 24 年，你有類似的機會來獲得你在年初沒有看到的客戶。

How are you estimating that opportunity in '25 a year plus out?

您如何估計 25 年後的機會？

And I know you -- I think you said you're taking a conservative angle.

我了解你——我想你說過你採取保守的角度。

But again, just more so, how did you quantify the magnitude of the opportunity for something that seems maybe hard to predict?

但更重要的是，您如何量化似乎難以預測的事情的機會大小？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think we -- because it's hard to predict, we really try to, from a cost perspective, approach it cautiously.

我的意思是，我認為我們——因為很難預測，所以我們確實嘗試從成本角度謹慎對待它。

But then in terms of the revenue, we would be counting on -- not count on a huge year for customer acquisition.

但就收入而言，我們將指望——而不是指望客戶獲取的巨大一年。

So we tried to kind of be cautious on both sides of the equation, and that's how you approach anything, I think, when it's hard to predict.

因此，我們試圖在等式的兩邊都保持謹慎，我認為，當事情難以預測時，這就是你處理任何事情的方式。

The other thing I'd note is that the addition of Jackpocket, which really we only have for about half a year, a little over half a year, also makes a big difference.

我要指出的另一件事是，Jackpocket 的加入也產生了很大的不同，雖然我們實際上只有大約半年，半年多一點。

And this year, there were no big jackpots.

而今年，並沒有出現巨額獎金。

So I think that's not normal.

所以我認為這不正常。

Last year there were $3 billion-plus jackpots.

去年累積獎金超過 30 億美元。

So we also want to make sure that, if we get some big jackpots in the lottery next year, we have some customer acquisition budget for that.

因此，我們也想確保，如果我們明年在彩票中了一些大頭獎，我們將有一些客戶獲取預算。

And just remember, even that alone, going from half a year-ish, a little more than half a year to a full year, is also more marketing and more new customers.

請記住，即使只是這一點，從半年左右、半年多一點到一整年，也需要更多的行銷和更多的新客戶。

So that's part of the story as well.

這也是故事的一部分。

Got you.

明白你了。

And then just some back-of-the-envelope math, is it fair to say you held the light by about 500 basis points in October?

然後只是一些粗略的數學計算，可以說你在 10 月的漲幅大約是 500 個基點嗎？

I'm basically saying the 250 of hold divided by an estimated October handle on our end?

我基本上是說 250 的持有量除以我們這邊估計的 10 月份手把？

Does that sound right?

聽起來對嗎？

You are about right.

你說得對。

Good math work.

數學作業很好。

Clark Lampen, BTIG.

克拉克·蘭彭，BTIG。

Jason, I wanted to follow up on structural hold rates.

傑森，我想跟進結構性持有率。

You called out 11 for next year, you're pacing towards 10.5. Hopefully, without sounding too myopic, why only 50 basis points of increase expected when I think a lot of the conversations that we've had so far around product mix shifts and the momentum that you guys are seeing with packaging product, stuff like that, it all feels quite positive?

您為明年設定了 11 個目標，目前正朝著 10.5 個目標邁進。希望，聽起來不太短視，為什麼預期只有 50 個基點的增長，因為我認為我們迄今為止圍繞產品組合變化進行的很多對話以及你們在包裝產品方面看到的勢頭，諸如此類的東西，一切都感覺很積極嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's what we feel, we have the line of sight to commit to right now.

我想這就是我們的感受，我們現在就有了承諾的視線。

And it's more of how we view our commitment than what we really want to achieve.

更重要的是我們如何看待自己的承諾，而不是我們真正想要實現的目標。

Our internal goals will certainly be higher than that.

我們的內在目標肯定會比這更高。

But as we think about what we want to guide, and not even being into 2025 yet, just wanted to make sure that we really only committed to something that we are highly confident in based on what we know right now.

但當我們思考我們想要指導什麼時，甚至還沒有進入 2025 年，只是想確保我們真的只致力於基於我們目前所知的、我們非常有信心的事情。

How does micro-betting, I guess, sort of factor into that, if at all, also next year?

我想，如果有的話，明年的微投注會如何影響這個因素？

I'm curious if you could give us an update maybe on the simple bet integration and perhaps when we might start to see, I guess, some of the product that's sort of in the pipeline starting to roll out?

我很好奇您能否給我們提供有關簡單投注集成的最新信息，也許我們什麼時候可以開始看到，我猜，一些即將推出的產品？

Yes.

是的。

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

So I mean, Simple Bet's been a partner of ours for a while.

所以我的意思是，Simple Bet 成為我們的合作夥伴已經有一段時間了。

So a lot of this was, one, about bringing a cost in-house, and two, really being able to take it to the next level.

因此，其中很多是，一是關於內部成本，二是真正能夠將其提升到一個新的水平。

So we do have a lot of micro-betting offerings now, but I think a lot of what we're going to develop going into next year will really be at the top of the market and I think will separate us and really differentiate us on the live betting side.

所以我們現在確實有很多微型投注產品，但我認為我們明年要開發的許多產品將真正處於市場的頂端，我認為這將使我們與眾不同，並真正使我們與眾不同現場投注方。

And it won't just be micros, there are all sorts of live betting and derivative markets that Simple Bet will help us with.

Simple Bet 不僅可以為我們提供協助，還可以幫助我們解決各種現場投注和衍生性商品市場問題。

So we're very excited about that.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

I think as you think about the impact on hold, live betting does have lower hold rates.

我認為當你考慮對保留的影響時，現場投注的保留率確實較低。

So as we mix more into live betting, it will naturally have some impact on lowering the overall average hold.

因此，當我們更融入現場投注時，自然會對降低整體平均持有率產生一些影響。

But obviously, we believe it's highly incremental volume.

但顯然，我們相信這是一個高度增量的數量。

So that's a good thing.

所以這是一件好事。

And at the same time, the other lever is we do believe that there's places that we have the opportunity to move live betting hold rate up.

同時，另一個槓桿是我們確實相信在某些地方我們有機會提高現場投注保留率。

So while as a whole it's lower, we might be able to offset any of the mix shift and maybe even offset it to the positive with having actually higher hold rates within the live betting in pockets where it's not high enough today.

因此，雖然整體上它較低，但我們可能能夠抵消任何混合變化，甚至可能透過在今天不夠高的地區的即時投注中擁有更高的保留率來抵消它的積極影響。

So those are all things I think Simple Bet will really help us with.

所以我認為 Simple Bet 能夠真正幫助我們解決這些問題。

And then obviously, on the pre-match side, we'll continue to push hard on parlay mix.

顯然，在賽前方面，我們將繼續努力推動連贏組合。

And I think overall, we expect, as we noted, structural hold to go up, but it will certainly be a mix of live betting and overall kind of performance on the pre-match side.

我認為總體而言，正如我們所指出的，我們預計結構性保留會上升，但這肯定會是現場投注和賽前整體表現的結合。

Joe Stauff, Susquehanna.

喬·斯塔夫，薩斯奎哈納。

I had a question.

我有一個問題。

Maybe if you could describe maybe retention levels and what they look like between, say, an OSB and a casino customer.

也許您可以描述一下保留水平以及它們在 OSB 和賭場客戶之間的情況。

And the reason I ask is, certainly within OSB, you have a significantly larger competitive advantage given your product and number of iterations and so forth and the amount of share that you have versus the casino market that certainly seems finite today and more competitive.

我問的原因是，當然在OSB 內，考慮到您的產品和迭代次數等，以及您所擁有的份額，相對於賭場市場而言，您擁有明顯更大的競爭優勢，而賭場市場今天看起來肯定是有限的，而且更具競爭力。

And so I was just curious about what does retention levels look like between, say, both of those customer cohorts?

所以我只是好奇這兩個客戶群之間的保留程度是什麼樣的？

Yes.

是的。

It's actually not too different.

實際上並沒有太大不同。

The retention in sports betting is naturally a little bit better, but it's not as different as you might think.

體育博彩的留存率自然要好一些，但並沒有你想像的那麼不同。

And from our perspective, we view our iGaming offering as top of the market.

從我們的角度來看，我們認為我們的 iGaming 產品處於市場領先地位。

We have -- we've noted been rated the number one and number two ranked apps and product quality for DraftKings and the Golden Nugget brands, respectively.

我們注意到，DraftKings 和 Golden Nugget 品牌的應用程式和產品品質分別排名第一和第二。

And we think our iGaming app is clearly head and shoulders the best product.

我們認為我們的 iGaming 應用程式顯然是最好的產品。

So I do think that you're right, it's a bit more competitive.

所以我確實認為你是對的，它更具競爭力。

And so naturally, there's a little bit more fragmentation.

因此，很自然地，會有更多的碎片化。

But if you look at our share in iGaming, it's not that much lower than our share in sports betting.

但如果你看看我們在 iGaming 中的份額，你會發現它並不比我們在體育博彩中的份額低多少。

And we expect that to have some upside too as we continue to improve the product.

我們預計，隨著我們不斷改進產品，這也會帶來一些好處。

Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.

丹‧波利策，富國銀行。

I know a lot of the focus has been on the 2025 guide.

我知道很多焦點都集中在 2025 年指南上。

But one of the things I was looking back at your Investor Day last year, you actually forecast revenue of 2026 at $6.2 billion.

但我去年在投資者日回顧的一件事是，你們實際上預測 2026 年的收入為 62 億美元。

So as you think about that relationship and maybe that could be just stale at this point, but should we think about kind of the path forward outside of 2025, the flow through and maybe the leverage as maybe you kind of look to exceed those prior targets given there seems to be upside on revenue, how should we think about that kind of going forward?

因此，當你思考這種關係時，也許這種關係目前可能已經過時了，但我們是否應該考慮 2025 年之後的前進道路、流程以及槓桿作用，因為你可能希望超越那些先前的目標鑑於收入似乎有上升空間，我們該如何看待未來的發展？

And along with that, sales and marketing, you guys did a lot of deals in 2020, 2021, probably rolling off soon.

除此之外，在銷售和行銷方面，你們在 2020 年、2021 年做了很多交易，可能很快就會結束。

So I mean, is that also an opportunity as we think about kind of the flow-through as we move past 2025?

所以我的意思是，當我們考慮 2025 年之後的流程時，這是否也是一個機會？

Yes.

是的。

I do think, to your last point, that is an opportunity.

我確實認為，就你的最後一點而言，這是一個機會。

And I'm glad you brought up the Investor Day.

我很高興你提到了投資者日。

I think that we were a little conservative in the Investor Day in terms of the overall industry growth.

我認為我們在投資者日對整個行業的成長有點保守。

I believe we are around 9% CAGR and flat share.

我相信我們的複合年增長率約為 9%，份額持平。

So what we're seeing is that the growth is just much stronger.

所以我們看到的是成長更加強勁。

And as you noted, we're actually going to be where we thought we'd be in 2026 in 2025 with much stronger customer acquisition and continued growth.

正如您所指出的，我們實際上將在 2026 年或 2025 年達到我們預期的目標，客戶獲取和持續成長將更加強勁。

So I think there is some upside there.

所以我認為這有一些好處。

And obviously, that means that the flow-through is going to have to catch up as the growth slows down in the outer years.

顯然，這意味著隨著外部年份成長放緩，流量必須趕上。

But I think right now, we're seeing really encouraging signs that the TAM is bigger than probably we thought when we did the Investor Day.

但我認為現在，我們看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，表明 TAM 比我們在投資者日舉行時想像的要大。

And as you noted, we're already a year ahead of where we thought we'd be.

正如您所指出的，我們已經比我們預期的目標提前了一年。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

I'd like to dig in a little bit more on the 11% hold number.

我想進一步深入了解 11% 的持有數字。

Jason, how do you think about that 50 bps lift in terms of average parlay -- or parlay mix versus average number of leg count improvement?

Jason，您如何看待平均連本投注（或連本投注組合與平均賽程數改進）方面的 50 個基點提升？

And could you get there just by anniversarying the parlay mix lift you're seeing today?

你能透過紀念今天所看到的連本帶利混合提升來實現這一目標嗎？

Understanding that there's differences in your product across sports.

了解不同運動項目的產品有差異。

And then the last part of this question is with regards to your main competitor and the hole that I know that you see that they do, what would it take to get to something a little bit closer to what they're doing next year?

然後這個問題的最後一部分是關於你的主要競爭對手以及我知道你看到他們所做的事情的漏洞，需要做什麼才能接近他們明年所做的事情？

Is that even possible, like a 12% or a 13%?

這可能嗎，例如 12% 或 13%？

What would that take?

那需要什麼？

Yes.

是的。

To your first question, it's really mix driven.

對於你的第一個問題，它確實是混合驅動的。

And I think we can get there based on just the mix shifts we're seeing, albeit, obviously, there's some assumptions around which sports they're likely to transfer into.

我認為我們可以根據我們所看到的混合變化來實現這一目標，儘管顯然，對於他們可能會轉入哪些運動有一些假設。

For example, we are not expecting next year nearly the mix shift in college sports because they tend to be less player oriented and, therefore, less parlay heavy.

例如，我們預計明年大學運動不會出現幾乎混合變化，因為它們往往不太以球員為導向，因此，連本帶利也不會那麼重。

But with the kind of nuances aside, I think, yes, we can get there based on the mix shift we're seeing.

但撇開這些細微差別不談，我認為，是的，我們可以根據我們所看到的混合轉變來實現這一目標。

And I think that the path to 12%, 13% is really mix-driven.

我認為通往 12%、13% 的道路實際上是混合驅動的。

I mean there's other things, of course, on the margin you can always do to improve your sharp modeling, improve your risk mitigation, things like that, but 90%-plus of that is just mix.

我的意思是，當然，你還可以做一些其他事情來改進你的敏銳建模，提高你的風險緩解，諸如此類的事情，但其中 90% 以上只是混合。

So we're continuing to focus on that.

所以我們將繼續關注這一點。

It's been a real great point of success this year.

今年真是個巨大的成功。

We feel like we have a great plan going into next year, drive it even higher.

我們覺得明年我們有一個偉大的計劃，並將其推得更高。

And it's exciting to know that there's a clear path to getting much higher on hold rate.

令人興奮的是，知道有一條明確的途徑可以提高擱置率。

And we think that is actually a big upside lever of the business that maybe people aren't counting on.

我們認為這實際上是該業務的一個巨大的上升槓桿，但人們可能並沒有指望它。

Jed Kelly, Oppenheimer.

傑德凱利，奧本海默。

Great.

偉大的。

Just on iGaming, can you sort of talk about the promotional velocity, how that's trended over the last couple of quarters, where that's going into '25?

就 iGaming 而言，您能談談促銷速度嗎？

And then just on the -- you had a King of the Court promotion.

然後就在──你升遷了法庭之王。

I thought it was really good.

我覺得這真的很好。

Can you talk about any learnings or engagement and the ability to sort of do some type of a social parlay -- social promotion again?

您能否談談任何學習或參與以及進行某種類型的社交組合（再次進行社交推廣）的能力？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, for -- on the King of the Court promotion, it's been a real big success for us.

所以我的意思是，對於法庭之王的晉升，這對我們來說是一個真正的巨大成功。

We've been very pleased with the results.

我們對結果非常滿意。

And I do think, to your point, it's something we can build on in the future.

我確實認為，就你的觀點而言，這是我們未來可以繼續發展的東西。

We're always trying different things.

我們總是在嘗試不同的事情。

Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, but we try to build on principles of what works.

有時它們有效，有時無效，但我們嘗試建立有效的原則。

So if we see certain types of promotions are working, we don't just say, "Hey, run the same promotion."

因此，如果我們看到某些類型的促銷活動正在發揮作用，我們不會只是說：“嘿，進行同樣的促銷活動。”

We ask ourselves why and try to comp with other promotions with similar mechanics.

我們問自己為什麼，並嘗試與具有類似機制的其他促銷活動進行比較。

So this is really a creation of a number of other things that we had seen working, and we had high confidence running it going into the season.

所以這實際上是我們已經看到的許多其他事情的創造，我們對進入本賽季充滿信心。

So far, it's been a huge success.

到目前為止，它取得了巨大的成功。

And then, sorry, what was the first question that you asked?

然後，抱歉，您問的第一個問題是什麼？

iGaming promotional velocity?

iGaming推廣速度？

Yes, it's been pretty steady year over year.

是的，一年比一年都非常穩定。

New customer acquisition has been up, as we noted.

正如我們所指出的，新客戶獲取量增加。

So with that adjusted out, it's been pretty steady year over year.

因此，經過調整後，每年的情況都相當穩定。

Each year, though, we continue to see a decline because same as Sportsbook, as you have less and less new customers as an overall percentage of the mix, you're just going to naturally see decline.

不過，每年我們都會看到下降，因為與體育博彩一樣，隨著新客戶在整體中所佔比例越來越少，您自然會看到下降。

Barry Jonas, Truist Securities.

巴里·喬納斯 (Barry Jonas)，Truist 證券公司。

With Missouri approving OSB, curious what states you're eyeing next for OSB or even iGaming?

隨著密蘇裡州批准 OSB，您想知道您接下來會關注 OSB 甚至 iGaming 的哪個州嗎？

And maybe specifically, I wanted to get your thoughts on Florida given recent comments from the Seminoles maybe opening the door for others.

也許具體來說，我想了解您對佛羅裡達州的看法，因為塞米諾爾人最近的評論可能會為其他人打開大門。

I mean it's always hard to predict states at this point.

我的意思是，此時總是很難預測狀態。

Everybody is kind of now finally turning their attention from the election to the upcoming legislative sessions next year.

現在每個人終於將注意力從選舉轉向明年即將舉行的立法會議。

And so starting to have a lot of those discussions.

所以開始有很多這樣的討論。

But I think if you kind of look at where we left off last year and some of the bills that got close, obviously, got through one House in Texas, still some big hurdles there, but hoping that we can figure out a path.

但我認為，如果你看看我們去年結束的地方，以及一些接近的法案，顯然，已經通過了德克薩斯州的一個眾議院，那裡仍然存在一些大障礙，但希望我們能夠找到一條道路。

Georgia, same thing, got through the Senate.

喬治亞州也同樣通過了參議院。

Hoping there's a path there.

希望那裡有一條路。

Minnesota got very close to the goal line last year.

明尼蘇達去年非常接近目標線。

So hoping that we can get that one across this year.

所以希望我們今年能夠實現這個目標。

And then on the iGaming side, I think New York and Illinois are obviously two big ones we're keeping an eye on, and I think could potentially have some momentum.

然後在 iGaming 方面，我認為紐約和伊利諾伊州顯然是我們正在關注的兩個大市場，我認為可能會有一些動力。

And then some others that I think could potentially get there in the next year or two are Maryland and North Carolina.

我認為其他一些可能在未來一兩年內實現這一目標的是馬裡蘭州和北卡羅來納州。

So those are all states that we're looking at.

這些都是我們正在關注的狀態。

But always going into it you think it's going to be a few, and then inevitably, some of the ones you felt good about don't pan out, and then there's some that you didn't see coming and end up having a real chance of success and maybe getting over the line.

但總是一開始你就認為會出現一些，然後不可避免地，一些你感覺不錯的東西並沒有成功，然後還有一些你沒有預見到的東西，最終卻有真正的機會成功並可能超越界限。

So it's early.

所以現在還早。

Just came off the election.

剛結束選舉。

But based on kind of where the momentum was and where we were last session -- the last set of sessions, I think those are some of the ones to keep an eye on.

但根據勢頭和我們上一次會議的情況——最後一組會議，我認為這些都是值得關注的。

Great.

偉大的。

And any thoughts on Florida?

對佛羅裡達有什麼想法嗎？

Very encouraged to hear those comments.

聽到這些評論非常受鼓舞。

We really have a ton of respect for Hard Rock and for the Seminoles and Jim Allen has done a fantastic job and enjoyed spending time and getting to know him and his team.

我們真的非常尊重硬石樂隊和塞米諾爾人，吉姆艾倫做得非常出色，並且很享受花時間了解他和他的團隊。

So we'll see how that all plays out.

所以我們將看看這一切如何進行。

Obviously, Florida is a big state and something that we'd be very excited if there were a path to be able to offer our product to customers there.

顯然，佛羅裡達州是一個大州，如果有一條途徑能夠向那裡的客戶提供我們的產品，我們會非常興奮。

But not really up to us.

但這並不完全由我們決定。

We'll have to see what they want to do and how the discussions progress.

我們必須看看他們想做什麼以及討論進展如何。

And obviously, if there's anything material, we'll come talk about it.

顯然，如果有任何實質內容，我們都會來討論。

But at this point, I wouldn't say that it's very far along.

但在這一點上，我不會說它已經很遙遠了。

And there's been a lot of speculation in the press, but really, I think it's pretty early stage.

媒體上有很多猜測，但實際上，我認為這還處於早期階段。

Bernie McTernan, Needham & Company.

伯尼·麥克特南，李約瑟公司。

Maybe just to start with the expectation of $850 million of free cash flow for '25, how should investors think about the use of cash, particularly for buybacks next year?

也許從 25 年 8.5 億美元自由現金流的預期開始，投資者應該如何考慮現金的使用，特別是明年的回購？

And then just a follow-up on hold.

然後後續行動就擱置了。

We all can track what happens with certain game outcomes and how that with favorites winning, how that can negatively impact hold.

我們都可以追蹤某些比賽結果會發生什麼，以及熱門球隊獲勝會如何產生負面影響。

Is it possible to disaggregate the total impact on hold between what was going on with team outcomes versus player props in the quarter?

是否有可能分解本季球隊成果與球員道具之間的整體影響？

Yes.

是的。

Let me quickly touch on the latter and then I'll have Alan take your first question.

讓我快速談談後者，然後我將讓艾倫回答你的第一個問題。

We're not at this time breaking down the hold.

我們現在不會打破這種束縛。

But what you can probably guess is that it's a mix of both.

但你可能會猜到這是兩者的混合。

So typically, when favorites win, it's good for the customer.

因此，通常情況下，當最愛的產品獲勝時，這對客戶來說是件好事。

And typically, when the big-name players get lots of yards and score touchdowns, it's good for the customer.

通常，當大牌球員獲得大量碼數並達陣得分時，這對客戶來說是件好事。

So when you see in the backup tightends and runningbacks get in the end zone in low-scoring games where the underdogs are winning, typically, that's good for the house.

因此，當你看到替補球員緊繃，跑衛在低分比賽中進入達陣區，而劣勢球隊獲勝時，這通常對球隊有利。

So that's how I think about it.

這就是我的想法。

It was a mix.

這是一個混合體。

And if you're going to see the type of result that we saw to start the quarter, it has to be because it was that bad.

如果你想看到我們在本季初看到的結果，那一定是因為情況太糟糕了。

But when it swings the other way, it could swing the other way hard too.

但當它向另一個方向擺動時，它也可能會劇烈地向另一個方向擺動。

So a lot of time left in the quarter and, obviously, a lot of time left in the season.

因此，本季度還剩下很多時間，顯然，本賽季還剩下很多時間。

And Alan, do you want to touch on that $850 million in free cash flow and how we're thinking about that?

艾倫，您想談談 8.5 億美元的自由現金流嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We feel really good about having positive free cash flow, not just in 2024, but the $850 million you mentioned that we're expecting in 2025.

我們對擁有正的自由現金流感到非常滿意，不僅是在 2024 年，而且還有您提到的我們預計 2025 年將達到 8.5 億美元。

We're keeping our eyes on the markets, we expect to act responsibly.

我們正在密切關注市場，我們希望採取負責任的行動。

But you should expect us to be more active with repurchases in future quarters as we scale into our free cash flow and as we have more liquidity.

但你應該期望我們在未來幾季會更加積極地進行回購，因為我們擴大了自由現金流並且擁有了更多的流動性。

Michael Graham, Canaccord.

邁克爾·格雷厄姆，Canaccord。

I just wanted to ask about one of your slides in the deck.

我只是想問一下你的幻燈片中的一張。

You said you have 3.6 million MUPs at the end of the quarter and 9.3 million total customers.

您說截至本季末您有 360 萬個 MUP，客戶總數為 930 萬。

I just wanted to ask if you could update us on your strategies for reactivating customers who have not engaged recently.

我只是想問您是否可以向我們介紹一下您重新激活最近未參與的客戶的策略。

Is it just a matter of promotional spend, or is there -- are there other things you're doing?

這只是促銷支出的問題，還是您正在做其他事情？

I'd say it's a great question.

我想說這是一個很好的問題。

It's a really important thing as obviously just core retention is important as the base gets bigger.

這是一件非常重要的事情，因為隨著基礎變大，核心保留顯然很重要。

And we view retention, activation, monetization as the ultimate keys to winning.

我們將保留、活化、貨幣化視為獲勝的最終關鍵。

Obviously, acquisition is very important too.

顯然，收購也非常重要。

But over the long term, it's about retaining and getting great usage and gameplay out of your customers.

但從長遠來看，這是為了留住客戶並讓他們獲得良好的使用和遊戲體驗。

So definitely an important topic.

所以絕對是個重要的議題。

I kind of look at it along two dimensions.

我有點從兩個維度來看它。

So one are just the constant always-on type of tactics where if we see particular things that we believe either are going to lead to attrition or recent lapses in customers, we can trigger different types of CRM treatments and retargeting treatments that will go and try to get them to reactivate.

因此，其中一種就是持續不斷的策略，如果我們看到特定的事情，我們認為這些事情會導致客戶流失或最近流失，我們可以觸發不同類型的 CRM 治療和重定向治療，這些治療將進行嘗試讓他們重新激活。

And then the other factor, I would say, is really more seasonal around like event-driven activation.

我想說，另一個因素確實更具季節性，例如事件驅動的活化。

So think like start of NFL season as an example, or Super Bowl.

以 NFL 賽季開始或超級盃為例。

And so really thinking about how do you use those moments when you know there's going to be a lot of natural reactivation in the market to get not only additional reactivation but also to make sure the natural activation you're getting as much of that as possible.

因此，真正思考當您知道市場上將會有許多自然重新激活時，您如何利用這些時刻，不僅獲得額外的重新激活，而且確保您獲得盡可能多的自然激活。

I kind of think of the start of NFL season as a lot of people who maybe at one point signed up for more than one book are going to decide where they want to start playing in the season.

我認為 NFL 賽季的開始是因為很多人可能在某個時候訂閱了不止一本書，他們將決定他們想在賽季中從哪裡開始打球。

So you want to make sure it's with you.

所以你要確保它在你身邊。

And obviously, as you do that season after season, they tend to not think about it and just come back to their favorite apps.

顯然，當你一季又一季地這樣做時，他們往往不會考慮它，只是回到他們最喜歡的應用程式。

So that's a lot of what we try to do is really use those big moments to win our share of the activation and also try to drive incremental activation through CRM.

因此，我們嘗試做的很多事情就是真正利用這些重要時刻來贏得我們的激活份額，並嘗試透過 CRM 推動增量激活。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Obviously, with the 30% growth for '25, you have a lot of focus areas that you need to be dialed into.

顯然，隨著 25 年 30% 的成長，您有很多需要關注的重點領域。

But Jason, I wonder if anything has changed just in terms of beginning to look at some international markets, or more importantly, when is the right time to start considering growing in other markets as top line might begin to slow if there's no legislation here in North America?

但是傑森，我想知道在開始關註一些國際市場方面是否發生了任何變化，或者更重要的是，什麼時候是開始考慮在其他市場成長的合適時機，因為如果沒有立法，收入可能會開始放緩北美？

Yes.

是的。

I mean definitely don't feel like it is a need.

我的意思是絕對不覺得有必要。

It's more of an opportunistic thing at this point.

在這一點上，這更像是一種機會主義的事情。

So it's not to say that if the right opportunity came about, we wouldn't pursue an international expansion strategy.

因此，這並不是說如果有合適的機會，我們就不會追求國際擴張策略。

But I don't think we feel like it's a need.

但我不認為我們覺得有必要。

We are still -- you noted growth, and even without a ton of new states launching next year, we're still well easily into a Rule of 40 company with over 30% growth and around a 15% EBITDA margin.

我們仍然—您注意到了成長，即使明年沒有推出大量新州，我們仍然很容易進入 40 家公司規則，成長超過 30%，EBITDA 利潤率約為 15%。

So definitely feel really good about where we are from a growth perspective and don't need to look to those things, but also if the right opportunity comes along, we would be open to it.

因此，從成長的角度來看，我們肯定對自己的處境感到非常滿意，不需要關注這些事情，但如果有合適的機會出現，我們也會對此持開放態度。

And I think we're staying patient and waiting for the right thing.

我認為我們正在保持耐心，等待正確的事情發生。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Jeff Stantial, Stifel.

傑夫·斯坦蒂爾，斯蒂菲爾。

Jason, I wanted to drill down into a comment you made early on in the call.

傑森，我想深入了解您在通話初期發表的評論。

If I caught it correctly, you said both the volume of users acquired and the signup offer per user acquired were both up year on year, though promotional reinvestment, as you note, in the latter was down about 300 bps year on year.

如果我沒理解錯的話，您說獲得的用戶量和每個用戶獲得的註冊優惠均同比增長，但正如您所指出的，後者的促銷再投資同比下降了約 300 個基點。

Is that mostly retention bonusing optimization and structural hold expansion that's driving that improvement?

推動這種改善的主要是保留獎金優化和結構性持有擴張嗎？

And then strategically, should we think about the higher nominal sign-up offer as being mostly opportunistic in the current user acquisition environment?

然後從策略上講，我們是否應該將較高的名義註冊優惠視為在當前用戶獲取環境中主要是機會主義的？

Or how much is it maybe informed by more what certain competitors are offering?

或者，它可以從某些競爭對手提供的產品中獲得多少資訊？

Sure.

當然。

So a couple of things I'd point to.

我想指出幾點。

One, definitely have seen some improvement year over year on the retention side.

第一，在保留方面肯定逐年有所改善。

And two, even though, yes, we did see an increase year over year in new customer mix -- excuse me, new customer volume, the mix actually shifted more towards existing customers just because of the growth of the retention side of the universe.

第二，儘管如此，是的，我們確實看到新客戶組合逐年增加——對不起，新客戶數量，實際上更多地轉向現有客戶，只是因為宇宙保留方面的增長。

So we did see both, I think, which is great, an increase, but also a shift towards a more mature customer base.

因此，我認為我們確實看到了兩者的成長，這很棒，但也看到了更成熟的客戶群的轉變。

And so those combinations ended up netting into some decline in overall promotion rate as well.

因此，這些組合最終也導致整體晉升率下降。

So those are the big factors.

這些都是重要因素。

But really for us, the expectation is that even if we do continue to see more new customers in a rapidly increasing industry, we don't actually think that it will be at a level, even in our most kind of aggressive, or, I guess, from a promotion standpoint, conservative estimates, we don't think it will reach a level where the overall mix is still not going to continue to shift more and more towards mature existing users each year.

但對我們來說，真正的期望是，即使我們確實在一個快速成長的行業中繼續看到更多的新客戶，我們實際上並不認為它會達到一個水平，即使是在我們最積極的情況下，或者，我我猜，從促銷的角度來看，保守估計，我們認為它不會達到整體組合仍然不會每年繼續越來越多地轉向成熟現有用戶的水平。

So we should continue to expect to see that drive down promotion rate each subsequent year, barring maybe a new large state opening up like if a California opened up or a Texas, that could obviously in the short-term sway.

因此，我們應該繼續期望看到隨後每年的晉升率都會下降，除非有一個新的大州開放，例如加州或德克薩斯州開放，這顯然會在短期內產生影響。

But from an existing state basis, we don't see that being the case.

但從現有的狀態來看，我們認為情況並非如此。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just in terms of the second part of that question, the offer levels per user acquired, is that just opportunistically leaning in when the fish are biting?

然後，就該問題的第二部分而言，每個用戶獲得的報價水平，是否只是在魚上鉤時投機取巧？

Or is there kind of another reason to raise the per user offer?

或者有其他原因需要提高每位用戶的報價嗎？

No, we're always experimenting play.

不，我們一直在嘗試遊戲。

I mean our overall new user offer and the overall promotion rate for new users has not gone up.

我的意思是我們整體的新用戶優惠和新用戶的整體推廣率並沒有上升。

But we're always kind of shifting in and out of different offers and changing things around based on what test results say.

但我們總是在不同的報價之間進行切換，並根據測試結果進行更改。

Jordan Bender, Citizens JMP.

喬丹·本德，公民 JMP。

The original gross margin guidance for '24 was 45% to 47%.

24 年最初的毛利率指引為 45% 至 47%。

So as we think through the bridge, on one hand, Illinois is a negative, which you've noted there should be some offset, game outcomes are onetime and Jackpocket should be actually positive to gross margin.

因此，當我們通過橋樑思考時，一方面，伊利諾伊州是負面的，您已經註意到應該有一些抵消，遊戲結果是一次性的，而 Jackpocket 實際上應該對毛利率有利。

So I'm just struggling to get why gross margins are essentially in the same place in '25 kind of blending those factors together.

因此，我只是很難理解為什麼毛利率在 25 年將這些因素混合在一起時基本上處於同一位置。

Is there anything else that we're missing here?

我們還缺什麼嗎？

I mean it's really new user growth.

我的意思是，這確實是新用戶的成長。

That's been the thing that's been driving the overall promotion level to a point where we hadn't seen quite the level of gross margin improvement we wanted.

這就是推動整體促銷水準達到我們想要的毛利率改善水準的原因。

But remember, Q3, we did see a 300 basis point year-over-year improvement in gross margin.

但請記住，第三季度，我們確實看到毛利率比去年同期提高了 300 個基點。

So it is definitely trending in the right direction.

所以它絕對是朝著正確的方向發展。

Ryan Sigdahl, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

瑞安‧西格達爾 (Ryan Sigdahl)，克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團。

How much of the $55 million of promotion optimization was because of customer-friendly sports outcomes and you just didn't have to retention, promote quite as much to them, versus an actual structural change in the promo strategy and playbook that we can run with going forward?

5500 萬美元的促銷優化中有多少是因為客戶友好的體育賽事結果，而您只是不必保留，向他們促銷那麼多，而不是我們可以運行的促銷策略和劇本中的實際結構變化繼續前進嗎？

No, it's really nothing to do with sport outcomes.

不，這其實與運動表現無關。

It's really two things.

這確實是兩件事。

One, some mitigation of Illinois from the tax increase.

第一，伊利諾伊州的稅收增加有所緩解。

And two, we've recently made some real progress in identifying customers that are lower LTV that needed a lower level of promotion in order to make sense from an LTV perspective.

第二，我們最近在識別生命週期價值較低的客戶方面取得了一些實際進展，這些客戶需要較低水準的促銷才能從生命週期價值的角度來看有意義。

So we made some optimizations there.

所以我們在那裡做了一些優化。

And actually very happy to say that that resulted in basically no change to revenue, but it did drive significant adjusted EBITDA.

事實上，我很高興地說，這基本上沒有導致收入發生變化，但它確實推動了調整後的 EBITDA 大幅成長。

So that's something that we really think should be more permanent.

所以我們確實認為這應該是更持久的。

But obviously, we'll keep an eye on what happens and continue to adjust and test it accordingly.

但顯然，我們會密切注意發生的情況，並繼續進行相應的調整和測試。

I'm showing no further questions at this time.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。

I'd like to turn the call back to Jason Robins for any closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給賈森·羅賓斯，讓其結束語。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you all for joining us on today's call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

We're looking forward to a really strong finish in 2024 and are really excited and optimistic about 2025 and beyond.

我們期待 2024 年取得非常強勁的成績，並對 2025 年及以後感到非常興奮和樂觀。

Thank you for your continued support, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

感謝您一直以來的支持，我們期待很快能再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。

You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。