Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Draft Kings third quarter, 2024 earnings call. At this time. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question and answer session to ask a question during the session. You need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised to withdraw your question. Please press star 11 again. Please be advised. Today's conference is being recorded. I wouldn't like to end the conference over to your speaker today. Alan Ellington, Draft Kings Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加選秀之王 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時。所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將舉行問答環節，在會議期間提出問題。您需要按電話上的星號 11。然後，您將聽到一條自動訊息，建議您舉手撤回問題。請再按星號 11。請您指教。今天的會議正在錄製中。我不想讓今天的會議由您的發言者結束。艾倫·艾靈頓，選秀之王首席財務官。請繼續。

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks uncertainties and other factors as discussed further in our SCC filings that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law during this call management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating draftkings' operating performance these measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for draftkings financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release and presentation which can be found on our website. And in our quarterly report on form 10-Q filed with the SCC hosting the call. Today, we have Jason Robins, co founder and Chief Executive Officer of Draftings. We'll share some opening remarks and an update on the business following Jason's remarks. I will provide a review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions. I will now turn the call over to Jason Robbins.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到風險不確定性和我們在SCC 文件中進一步討論的其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的歷史結果或我們的預測有重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任，在本次電話會議期間，管理層還將討論某些我們認為可能有助於評估Draftkings 經營業績的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標不應單獨考慮或考慮。的網站上找到。在我們向主持電話會議的 SCC 提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告中。今天，我們邀請了 Draftings 聯合創始人兼執行長傑森羅賓斯 (Jason Robins)。在 Jason 講話之後，我們將分享一些開場白和業務最新情況。我將對我們的財務狀況進行審查。然後我們將開放提問熱線。我現在將把電話轉給傑森羅賓斯。

Good morning and thank you all for joining. As you can see in our results, our core value drivers are strong in the third quarter. We acquired more online sportsbook and igaming customers year over year while C declined nearly 20%. Structural sports book hold percentage continued to increase our trajectory. Here is encouraging with NFL parlay mix tracking up more than 500 basis points year over year.

早安，感謝大家的加入。正如您在我們的業績中看到的，我們第三季的核心價值驅動因素強勁。我們逐年獲得了更多的線上體育博彩和博彩客戶，而 C 下降了近 20%。結構性體育博彩持有率繼續增加我們的軌跡。 NFL 連贏彩金組合年增超過 500 個基點，令人鼓舞。

Our promotional reinvestment rate improved by 300 basis points year over year as a percentage of gross gaming revenue even though we acquire more customers and add higher new customer promotions.

儘管我們獲得了更多客戶並增加了更多新客戶促銷活動，但我們的促銷再投資率佔博彩總收入的百分比仍同比提高了 300 個基點。

These core value drivers collectively contributed to a 300 basis point year over year improvement in adjusted gross margin for the third quarter of 2024.

這些核心價值驅動因素共同推動 2024 年第三季調整後毛利率年增 300 個基點。

While we experienced the most customer friendly stretch of NFL sport outcomes we've ever seen early in the fourth quarter which pressures our revenue and adjusted EBITA in the short term. The overall trajectory of our business is strong. We are excited to reiterate our fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITA guidance range of 900 million to $1 billion and introduce our inaugural fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance, which calls for 31% year over year growth at our guidance midpoint.

雖然我們在第四季度初經歷了有史以來最對客戶友好的 NFL 體育賽事結果，但這在短期內給我們的收入和調整後的 EBITA 帶來了壓力。我們業務的整體發展軌跡強勁。我們很高興重申我們的2025 財年調整後EBITA 指導範圍為9 億至10 億美元，並推出了我們的首個2025 財年收入指導，該指導要求在我們的指導中點實現31% 的同比增長。

Even more importantly, our sportsbook product is continuing to improve which positions us well for this NBA season and beyond this fall, we launched new and exclusive MB A markets specifically designed to engage customers with key game storylines and expanded our in house same game parlay offering to more than 50 new NBA markets.

更重要的是，我們的體育博彩產品正在不斷改進，這使我們在本賽季的NBA 賽季中處於有利地位，並且在今年秋季之後，我們推出了新的獨家MB A 市場，專門設計用於吸引客戶參與關鍵比賽故事情節，並擴展了我們內部的同場遊戲連本帶利產品到 50 多個新的 NBA 市場。

We also appreciate being recognized in a recent third party report is the number one overall sportsbook app in the US ranking first in the user experience, betting interface and features categories. Our apps now ranked number one in sportsbook and numbers one and two in igaming with the draft, Kings Casino and Golden Nugget casino brands respectively. Lastly, I'd like to touch on the ballot initiative in Missouri. Earlier this week, Missouri voters passed a ballot initiative legalizing online sports betting in the state following a productive and efficient campaign that was backed by a wide consortium of sports teams and gaming operators. Missouri represents approximately 2% of the US population and we expect to launch our sportsbook product in the state pending market access licensure regulatory approvals and contractual approvals in closing our business fundamentals are healthy and we are excited about our financial trajectory into 2025 and beyond. With that, I will turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer Allen Ellington.

我們也很高興在最近的第三方報告中獲得美國排名第一的體育博彩應用程式的認可，在用戶體驗、投注介面和功能類別中排名第一。我們的應用程式現在在體育博彩中排名第一，在選秀、Kings Casino 和 Golden Nugget 賭場品牌的遊戲遊戲中分別排名第一和第二。最後，我想談談密蘇裡州的投票倡議。本週早些時候，密蘇裡州選民通過了一項投票動議，將該州的線上體育博彩合法化，此前該動議得到了廣泛的運動隊和博彩運營商聯盟的支持，富有成效且高效。密蘇裡州約占美國人口的2%，我們預計將在該州推出我們的體育博彩產品，等待市場准入許可、監管部門批准和合同批准，以結束我們的業務基本面是健康的，我們對2025年及以後的財務軌跡感到興奮。接下來，我會將其移交給我們的財務長艾倫·艾靈頓 (Allen Ellington)。

Thank you, Jason. I'll hit the highlights including our third quarter performance and our fiscal year 2024 and 2025 guidance. Please note that all income statement measures discussed except for revenue are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITA basis.

謝謝你，傑森。我將重點介紹我們的第三季業績以及 2024 年和 2025 財年的指導。請注意，除收入外，所討論的所有損益表指標均基於非公認會計準則調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITA)。

As Jason mentioned, our business fundamentals were healthy in the third quarter, we grew revenue 39% year over year to 1 billion $95 million and generated a $59 million adjust but do loss. Our online sports book gross gaming revenue increased 39% and igaming gross gaming revenue grew 26% when compared to the third quarter of 2023 newly acquired online sports book and eye giving customers increased 14% year over year. While our tax for these customers improved nearly 20% year over year.

正如傑森所提到的，我們第三季的業務基本面很健康，我們的營收年增了 39%，達到 10 億美元 9,500 萬美元，並產生了 5,900 萬美元的調整，但確實出現了虧損。與 2023 年第三季相比，我們的線上運動博彩毛博彩收入成長了 39%，igam 博彩毛收入成長了 26%，新收購的線上運動博彩和眼球客戶年增 14%。而我們對這些客戶的稅收則是年增了近 20%。

Structural sportsbook hold percentages increase year over year as customers continue to enjoy our parlay offerings, promotional reinvestment rates for our online sportsbook and igaming improved by 300 basis points year over year as we reduced promotions for lower value customer segments and began to mitigate the impact of the Illinois tax increase adjusted gross margin was above our expectations at 40% and increased 300 basis points year over year.

隨著客戶繼續享受我們的連本帶利產品，結構性體育博彩持有百分比逐年增加，我們的線上體育博彩和遊戲的促銷再投資率同比提高了300 個基點，因為我們減少了針對低價值客戶群組的促銷活動，並開始減輕伊利諾州增稅調整後毛利率高於我們 40% 的預期，年增 300 個基點。

Looking ahead, I'll briefly comment on our fiscal year 2024 guidance before discussing our expectations for fiscal year 2025.

展望未來，在討論我們對 2025 財年的預期之前，我將簡要地評論我們的 2024 財年指引。

On August 1st 2024 we guided fiscal year 2024 revenues of 5.05 billion to $5.25 billion and adjusted EBITA of 340 million to $420 million. Our third quarter financial performance was consistent with our expectations NFL outcomes early in the fourth quarter. However, have resulted in the headwinds to revenue and AUCS of the dock of 250 million and $175 million respectively.

2024 年 8 月 1 日，我們預期 2024 財年營收為 50.5 億至 52.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITA 為 3.4 億至 4.2 億美元。我們第三季的財務表現與我們對 NFL 第四季初結果的預期一致。然而，這對碼頭的收入和 AUCS 造成了分別 2.5 億美元和 1.75 億美元的不利影響。

We have also made significant progress in identifying customers with lower lifetime values across our footprint and are improving our expectation for promotions for the remainder of the fiscal year 2024 accordingly. And we are continuing to drive expense efficiency throughout the organization as we balance growth and profitability as a result, we now expect fiscal year 2024 revenues of 4.85 billion to $4.95 billion and fiscal year adjusted of 240 million to $280 million.

我們在識別整個業務範圍內生命週期價值較低的客戶方面也取得了重大進展，並相應提高了對 2024 財年剩餘時間的促銷預期。我們將繼續提高整個組織的費用效率，平衡成長和獲利能力，因此，我們現在預計 2024 財年收入為 48.5 億至 49.5 億美元，調整後的財年收入為 2.4 億至 2.8 億美元。

Moving on to our fiscal year 2025 guidance in November 2023 we stated our expectation that fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITA would be in the range of 900 million to $1 billion. We reiterated this expectation in August given strong underlying momentum in our core value drivers. We continue to expect fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of 900 million to $1 billion.

接下來是 2023 年 11 月的 2025 財年指引，我們表示預計 2025 財年調整後的 EBITA 將在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。鑑於我們的核心價值驅動因素具有強勁的潛在動力，我們在八月重申了這一預期。我們繼續預期 2025 財年調整後 EBITDA 為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Today, we are introducing a fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance range of 6.2 billion to $6.6 billion which equates to year over year growth of 27 to 35% compared to our updated fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance points.

今天，我們推出 2025 財年收入指引範圍為 62 億至 66 億美元，這相當於與我們更新的 2024 財年收入指導點相比同比增長 27% 至 35%。

We expect structural sports foothold percentage of 11% in fiscal year 2025 with further upside in fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

我們預計 2025 財年結構性運動立足比例將達到 11%，並在 2026 財年及以後進一步上升。

We expect our fiscal year 2025 adjusted gross margin to be in the range of 45% to 47%.

我們預計 2025 財年調整後毛利率將在 45% 至 47% 之間。

We expect stock based compensation expense to represent approximately 6% of revenue in fiscal year 2025.

我們預計 2025 財年股票補償費用將佔營收的 6% 左右。

Additionally, we expect the bridge between adjusted ebita and free cash flow to be $100 million and therefore expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $850 million in fiscal year 2025.

此外，我們預計調整後的息稅前利潤和自由現金流之間的橋樑為 1 億美元，因此預計 2025 財年將產生約 8.5 億美元的自由現金流。

That concludes our remarks and we will now open the line for questions.

我們的發言到此結束，現在我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Shaun Kelley，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Jason, if we could start off, I think most of our questions this morning from investors have really kind of been around the the flow through assumptions for next year. So obviously some pros and cons but where we left it a quarter ago, I think, you know, you had spoken about about a 50% flow through kind of on a long term basis. And I think that's what some of the long term objectives had had kind of pinpointed to this year for next year. You're looking at 39%. So you could just talk about some of the puts and takes behind those variables as well as sort of how it interacts with what you're seeing on the revenue and customer acquisition side at this point. Thanks.

嗨，大家早安。感謝您提出我的問題。傑森，如果我們可以開始的話，我認為今天早上投資者提出的大部分問題實際上都圍繞著明年的假設流程。顯然，有一些優點和缺點，但我們在一個季度前就離開了它，我想，你知道，你曾經談到 50% 的流量是長期的。我認為這就是今年和明年的一些長期目標的具體目標。你現在看到的是 39%。因此，您可以只討論這些變數背後的一些投入和投入，以及它如何與您此時在收入和客戶獲取方面看到的相互作用。謝謝。

Thanks Sean. Yeah, so definitely feel 50% is about the right number, long term for flow through. I think next year, what you're seeing, you know, around 40% rather than 50 is that we have, as we've noted in the last couple of quarters, been seeing unexpectedly strong customer acquisition. And yeah, it's a really great thing for the long term potential and the TAM of the industry. But obviously, we want to be cautious next year that we don't end up underestimating customer acquisition promotions and therefore having a higher flow through guide than what actually materializes. So that's really the thinking behind that, as we've noted in the past, should customer acquisition slow? I think whenever that happens, there'll be some short term adjusted even to upside. So that could very well be the case in 25. Obviously, we want to see the continued customer acquisition because that bodes well for 26 and beyond. But, you know, should there be less than expected or I should say a slowdown in customer acquisition could definitely be some upside to that flow through rate that you mentioned.

謝謝肖恩。是的，所以從長遠來看，50% 絕對是正確的數字。我認為明年，你會看到，正如我們在過去幾季所指出的，大約 40% 而不是 50% 的客戶獲取量出乎意料地強勁。是的，這對於行業的長期潛力和 TAM 來說確實是一件偉大的事情。但顯然，我們希望明年保持謹慎，以免我們最終低估客戶獲取促銷活動，從而導致引導流量高於實際實現的流量。正如我們過去所指出的，這確實是背後的想法，客戶獲取速度是否應該放慢？我認為無論何時發生這種情況，都會出現一些短期調整，甚至上行。因此，25 年後的情況很可能如此。但是，你知道，如果數量低於預期，或者我應該說客戶獲取速度放緩，肯定會對你提到的流通率產生一些好處。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. So just rolling through the rest of the year, one of the discussions, you know, we've been having is, you know, how do we get comfortable, you know, month to month and you know, quarter to quarter that, you know, that the kinds of impact that we see, you know, here don't recur and, or, you know, flip back in the more positive direction. I guess what I'm asking is if you could talk about some of the levers that you have at your disposal and how the business evolves to, you know, mitigate some of the luck factor that showed up here.

早安，大家。感謝您提出我的問題。因此，回顧今年剩下的時間，我們一直在討論的一個問題是，我們如何才能感到舒適，你知道，每個月，每個季度，你都知道，知道，我們在這裡看到的那種影響不會再發生，或者，你知道，會向更積極的方向翻轉。我想我要問的是，你是否可以談談你可以使用的一些槓桿，以及業務如何發展，以減輕這裡出現的一些運氣因素。

No, it's a great question. Obviously, the shorter the period, the, the more that volatility and sport outcomes can affect things. So only being about a month into Q4, I think, you know, just the timing of when you're seeing the guide, it's obviously going to, you know, a month period is going to have more volatility and as you noted, it could swing either way. Just last night, Bengal make that two point conversion and that last touchdown doesn't go in for 1/4 Parle leg to hit parlay leg to hit for, you know, the, the touchdown parlay and then would have been very different outcomes. So, you know, things can swing either way. I think certainly over longer periods of time, it normalizes. It was a little bit of a down year this year. This year, we were around, we expect to be around 10.5% structural hold and we'll finish just over 10% actual, at least that's what we're tracking now, maybe sport outcomes will improve. But, you know, that that's, you know, typically over the course of a year, a pretty big number. So I think over a year it's pretty smooth and, and what you'll see, I think as the business evolves right now, our adjusted EBITA is a small percentage of our revenue as that continues to go up and we approach our long term 30 plus percent margins you're going to see the impact of sport outcomes because they affect revenue flow through at a much excuse me, affect EBITA at a much lower percentage. Think about it this way next year, our adjusted EBITA is going to double at the top end of our guidance range. But we only we expect revenue to grow at a, you know, just over 30% pace. So the impact of of of sport outcome on revenue is obviously going to be the same. But on EBITA could be or excuse me, it would be about 30 a little over 30% higher. But on EBITA, it'll be on a number that's four times bigger. So as we scale and, and the business generates more and more EBITA, these impacts will become more rounding errors. But obviously now in a year where we're just turning positive adjusted EBDA for the first time in company history, it's going to be a bigger impact.

不，這是一個很好的問題。顯然，時間越短，波動性和運動結果對事情的影響就越大。因此，距離第四季度只有大約一個月的時間，我認為，你知道，就在你看到指南的時間點上，很明顯，一個月的時間將會有更多的波動，正如你所指出的，它可以向任何方向搖擺。就在昨晚，孟加拉隊完成了兩分轉換，最後一次達陣並沒有進入1/4 Parle 腿，達到了連本帶利，你知道，達陣連本帶利，然後就會有非常不同的結果。所以，你知道，事情可能會朝任何一個方向發展。我認為，隨著時間的推移，它肯定會正常化。今年是有點低迷的一年。今年，我們預計結構性保持在 10.5% 左右，實際完成率將略高於 10%，至少這是我們現在正在追蹤的，也許體育比賽的成績會有所改善。但是，你知道，通常在一年內，這是一個相當大的數字。因此，我認為一年多來，情況非常順利，而且您會看到，隨著業務目前的發展，我們調整後的 EBITA 只占我們收入的一小部分，隨著收入繼續上升，我們接近長期 30加上利潤率百分比，您將看到體育賽事結果的影響，因為它們對收入流的影響很大，對不起，對EBITA 的影響要低得多。這樣想一下，明年我們調整後的息稅折舊攤提前利潤將在指導範圍的上限翻倍。但我們只預期收入將以略高於 30% 的速度成長。因此，體育賽事結果對收入的影響顯然是相同的。但恕我直言，EBITA 可能會高出約 30%，略高於 30%。但就 EBITA 而言，這個數字將是原來的四倍。因此，隨著我們規模的擴大以及業務產生越來越多的 EBITA，這些影響將變得更加捨入誤差。但顯然，今年我們剛剛在公司歷史上首次將調整後的 EBDA 轉為正數，這將產生更大的影響。

Understood, looked like past interference to me. Thank you very much.

明白了，看來是過去對我的干擾。非常感謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great. One small thing just wondering, I don't know if you said the hold percentage in Q3. And then the bigger question is with Illinois, you've talked about, you know, changing promotional activity to kind of offset the higher tax. Can you talk a little bit about, you know, do you feel like you have sort of fully figured out how to, to do that, or is that still a work in progress? In other words, are you, are you where you want to be with, with that trade off? Thanks.

偉大的。只是想知道一件小事，我不知道你是否提到了第三季的持有百分比。然後更大的問題是伊利諾伊州，你知道，改變促銷活動以抵消更高的稅收。你能談談，你知道，你是否覺得你已經完全弄清楚如何做到這一點，或者這仍然是一項正在進行的工作？換句話說，在這種權衡下，你是否是你想要的地方？謝謝。

Yeah. So whole was as expected in Q3, we didn't see any. It was nice to actually have a neutral quarter, especially with NFL starting. And then, you know, as far as Illinois goes, I think we've begun to implement some things. We're still figuring out exactly what the right levels are. But if you, if you see sort of in the bridge that we shared, we included some promo efficiency. And within that one of the components is some mitigation in Illinois. So we have begun to implement that, but I wouldn't say that we fully realized it and it's not a huge component of the guide next year. So potentially some upside there depending on how things evolve.

是的。所以第三季的整體情況符合預期，我們沒有看到任何情況。能有一個中立的季度真是太好了，尤其是在 NFL 開始的時候。然後，你知道，就伊利諾伊州而言，我認為我們已經開始實施一些事情。我們仍在弄清楚正確的水平到底是多少。但如果你，如果你在我們共享的橋樑中看到了一些，我們包括了一些促銷效率。其中一個組成部分是伊利諾伊州的一些緩解措施。所以我們已經開始實施這一點，但我不會說我們完全意識到了這一點，而且它也不是明年指南的重要組成部分。因此，根據事情的發展情況，可能會有一些好處。

Okay, great. Thank.

好的，太好了。感謝。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank.

卡洛桑塔雷利，德意志銀行。

Hey guys, thanks, good morning. Jason, I was, I was wondering so within the context of the 31% revenue guidance for next year to the extent you can't like how, how would you parse that between market growth across both eye gaming and sports betting market share and, and promotional extraction if you could kind of bucket maybe the growth across those three verticals or any kind of direction you can give on that.

嘿夥計們，謝謝，早安。傑森，我是，我想知道，在明年 31% 收入指導的背景下，你會如何解析眼睛遊戲和體育博彩市場份額的市場增長之間的關係，以及，和促銷提取，如果你可以的話，也許是這三個垂直領域的成長，或者你可以就此給出的任何方向。

Sure. So we do bottoms up build. So we typically will look at cohort data implicit in that I think is that market share doesn't change because we're basing our cohort data on what we've seen in the past and we're basing our customer acquisition estimates on what we've seen in the past. So I think that's going to be basically implying a flat market share that said, we don't actually forecast it that way. It's more of a top down exercise, we say, okay, if we kept market share flat, what would this imply for market growth and insanity check it that way. You know, on the promotional side, we've been, I think, as I noted, a little cautious with customer acquisition environment having been so hot. So that one I think could be, you know, potential upside if there is lower customer acquisition. But of course, that's not as much you know, benefit in 2026 and beyond, but could be some upside on the e up front for next year. But we weren't too aggressive with that number. So it's not a huge component of it. So really, it's more about just kind of natural market growth, handle growth on our side and then a little bit of structural hold improvement.

當然。所以我們進行自下而上的建構。因此，我們通常會查看隱含的同期群數據，我認為市場份額不會改變，因為我們的同期群數據是基於我們過去看到的情況，並且我們基於我們的客戶獲取估計。所以我認為這基本上意味著市佔率持平，也就是說，我們實際上並沒有那樣預測。這更像是一種自上而下的做法，我們說，好吧，如果我們保持市場份額持平，這對市場成長意味著什麼，而瘋狂的檢查方式就是這樣。你知道，在促銷方面，我認為，正如我所指出的，由於客戶獲取環境如此火熱，我們一直有點謹慎。因此，我認為，如果客戶獲取量減少，這可能會帶來潛在的好處。當然，這並不像您所知道的那樣，在 2026 年及以後受益，但可能會為明年的 e 帶來一些好處。但我們對這個數字並沒有太激進。所以它並不是它的一個重要組成部分。所以實際上，這更多的是一種自然的市場成長，處理我們這邊的成長，然後進行一點結構性的改進。

Great. And then just on the promotional side, it is obviously 300 was the number this quarter is that kind of in the ballpark of what you're looking to extract next year for the entirety of the year or, or is it something a little more muted just based on, on what you just said already? The customer acquisition environment?

偉大的。然後就促銷方面而言，很明顯，本季度的數字是 300，這與您希望明年全年提取的數字大致相同，或者是更溫和的數字僅僅基於，基於你剛才所說的？客戶獲取環境？

Yeah, it's a little more muted just because we've been cautious on the customer acquisition environment. But it's, it's really going to depend on that. I mean, you know, the the decline is going to happen just based on the fact that the base is maturing and it's more existing users. It's just a question of how hot customer acquisition is. So I think we've been a little more cautious and had a bit more muted of an assumption. You know, and we'll see how that plays out.

是的，這有點低調，只是因為我們對客戶獲取環境持謹慎態度。但這確實取決於此。我的意思是，你知道，這種下降的發生只是基於基礎正在成熟並且現有用戶越來越多。這只是客戶獲取有多熱的問題。所以我認為我們更加謹慎，並且對假設更加低調。你知道，我們會看看結果如何。

Great. Thank you. And if I could just one follow up, you guys obviously provided some, some good disclosure around your, your upps and arm ups in the period X jackpocket. The arm up growth I believe was 8%. Is that just a mix issue of some of the newer customers you're bringing in or is that, you know, something that, that maybe relates to some of the, the legacy customers and, and you guys getting a little bit smarter with, you know, managing volatility and whatnot.

偉大的。謝謝。如果我可以跟進一下，你們顯然在 X 時期的口袋裡提供了一些有關你的上衣和手臂上衣的很好的披露。我認為手臂向上增長是 8%。這只是你引入的一些新客戶的混合問題，還是，你知道，這可能與一些老客戶有關，而且你們變得更聰明了，你知道，管理波動性等等。

Yeah, I think it's more the latter. You know, obviously as we bring on new customers jackpocket, there's a lot of moving parts. So one of the things that we noted in our, our letter is that we do intend to make some additional disclosures at the product level next year and we're still sort of sorting out exactly what those are. But I realize it's kind of confusing with the way we have it now, especially with all the different, you know, product lines that we have. So, that's something we're taking a look at so that we can hopefully provide some more useful disclosures for all of you.

是的，我認為更多的是後者。你知道，顯然，當我們為新客戶帶來獎金時，有很多變化的部分。因此，我們在信中指出的一件事是，我們確實打算明年在產品層面進行一些額外的揭露，我們仍在整理這些內容。但我意識到這與我們現在的方式有點令人困惑，尤其是我們擁有的所有不同的產品線。因此，我們正在研究這一點，以便我們能夠為大家提供一些更有用的披露資訊。

Great. Thank you very. Much.

偉大的。非常感謝。很多。

Joe Greff, JPMorgan.

喬‧格雷夫，摩根大通。

Good morning, everybody. I'll start with the question, Carla just asked and maybe ask it somewhat differently if you can look back at the three Q and parse between OS B and the I gaming segments. Can you talk about spend per existing user versus, you know, newly acquired users? How much of a, of a delta or maybe a lower spend new users might have relative to some of your longer term, maybe more VIP customers.

大家早安。我將從卡拉剛剛問的問題開始，如果您可以回顧一下三個問題並在 OS B 和 I 遊戲部分之間進行解析，也許會有所不同。能談談現有用戶的支出與新獲得的用戶的支出嗎？相對於您的一些長期客戶（可能是更多 VIP 客戶），新用戶可能擁有多少 a、Delta 或可能較低的支出。

Sure. So, you know, obviously with the caveat that it's still early. I do think that the users we acquired in Q3 look a lot like customers we've been acquiring recently. Certainly, maybe not the you know, 1st year in a state cohort but very similar to the more recent cohorts. So it seems like really the, the story is that after the 1st year or two. You do get some decline in customer LTV, but then it seems to plateau, it doesn't really seem to, to be lower in years, 456 and beyond. So that's kind of what we're seeing, but again, very early, we're basing this on, you know, for most of these customers only a month or two of data. So, you know, obviously we'll see how that plays out as MB A progresses and things like that. But from what we can tell, it seems like they're very similar quality to who we've been acquiring.

當然。所以，你知道，顯然需要注意的是，現在還為時過早。我確實認為我們在第三季度獲得的用戶看起來很像我們最近獲得的客戶。當然，也許不是你知道的，州隊列的第一年，但與最近的隊列非常相似。所以看起來確實如此，故事是在一兩年後發生的。客戶 LTV 確實會有所下降，但隨後似乎會趨於穩定，但實際上似乎並沒有，在 456 年及以後會降低。這就是我們所看到的，但同樣，很早，我們的基礎是，你知道，對於大多數這些客戶來說，只有一兩個月的數據。所以，你知道，顯然我們會看到隨著 MB A 的進展以及類似的事情會如何發展。但據我們所知，他們的品質似乎與我們收購的人非常相似。

Great, thank you. And then with respect to your 2025 revenue and Ebida guidance range, what's contemplated at the high end versus what's baked into the low end, what's what, what's that $100 million you know, Ebida Bridge, what, what's the delta there?

太好了，謝謝。然後，就您2025 年的收入和Ebida 指導範圍而言，高端的預期與低端的預期是什麼，那是什麼，那1 億美元是多少，您知道，Ebida 橋，什麼，那裡的三角洲是多少？

The biggest difference is just customer acquisition environment. That's kind of the hardest thing for us to predict. At this point. We feel very good about the models we have for our existing cohorts and have been very accurate in forecasting. Those. Obviously, other levers like, you know, fixed costs and marketing spend are controllable. So it's really much more, you know, what is the new customer volume look like and how does that end up affecting new customer promotion levels?

最大的差別只是獲客環境。這對我們來說是最難預測的事情。在此刻。我們對現有群體的模型感覺非常好，預測非常準確。那些。顯然，其他槓桿，例如固定成本和行銷支出是可控的。所以，真正重要的是，你知道，新客戶量是什麼樣的，這最終會如何影響新客戶的促銷水平？

Great. And then one final question here, given the aforementioned customer friendly results in October, have your handle expectations versus a quarter ago call changed. In other words, you know, would four Q handle actually have gone up relative to, you know, three months ago, given these outcomes and, you know, what might be stronger engagement.

偉大的。然後是最後一個問題，鑑於上述 10 月份的客戶友好結果，您的處理期望與季度前的通話相比是否發生了變化。換句話說，考慮到這些結果以及可能更強的參與度，四個 Q 處理實際上相對於三個月前有所上升。

We have seen, you know, a little bit of evidence that handle can go up or down based on, you know, whether customers are winning or not, but it's actually not really that big a number if it is an impact at all. I think much more what we see is that people don't need to deposit as much more, but they tend to keep their betting levels at a pretty similar level. And on the margins, you see some incremental betting, but for the most part, people just continue to kind of bet as they've been betting at this point. So, you know, not something that we built into our assumptions. If there is any of that, it could be upside. Also could be some upside on the payment processing cost side because you don't need to have people depositing again if they have money in their account. So all those things could potentially create upside. But I think if it is, it's not very significant. So we haven't built it into the guide.

我們已經看到一些證據表明，處理量可以根據客戶是否獲勝而上升或下降，但如果它確實有影響的話，實際上並不是那麼大的數字。我認為我們看到的更多的是人們不需要存更多的錢，但他們傾向於將投注水平保持在相當相似的水平。在邊緣，你會看到一些增量投注，但在大多數情況下，人們只是繼續進行投注，因為他們一直在這一點上投注。所以，你知道，這不是我們假設的東西。如果有任何一個，它可能是有利的。支付處理成本方面也可能有一些好處，因為如果人們的帳戶中有錢，您就不需要再次存款。因此，所有這些事情都可能創造積極的一面。但我認為，即使是這樣，也不是很重要。所以我們還沒有將其納入指南中。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Miller, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Ben Miller，高盛。

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I, I guess just on the 25 EB guide, I, I was wondering if you could expand on what some of the embedded assumptions are in there versus last quarter. And, and what some of those moving pieces are that leave the range unchanged against factors that may or may not be new this quarter. You obviously have a revenue guide versus prior expectations seems like you're mitigating some tax in Illinois. Are there any assumptions from Missouri? Any any color around that would be helpful? Thank you.

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。我，我想就在 25 EB 指南中，我，我想知道您是否可以擴展其中與上季度相比的一些嵌入假設。而且，其中一些變化因素使範圍保持不變，以應對本季可能出現或可能不是新出現的因素。顯然，您有一個收入指南，與先前的預期相比，您似乎正在伊利諾伊州減輕一些稅收。密蘇裡州有任何假設嗎？周圍有什麼顏色會有幫助嗎？謝謝。

Sure. Yeah. So I mean, I think the general story is that in Q3, we kind of performed as expected and Q4 outside of sport outcomes, all the fundamentals are pointing towards, you know, exactly kind of what we thought maybe even a little better going into Q3 and Q4. So, you know, there is maybe some reason to feel more optimism. Obviously, we also got stung by sport outcomes. So I think, you know, between that and also want to be cautious on customer acquisition. We didn't feel comfortable raising the guide at this point, but we do see some really interesting, you know, things with parlay mix being up 500 basis points year over year in NFL and NBA off to a very strong start from a mixed perspective that do give us some confidence that there could be some upside. But right now, we feel like with the data we have, this is the right place to be and felt like, you know, the real macro story was maybe a little upside, but more, more so that we really reaffirmed over the last couple quarters, all of the key fundamentals that led us to feel 900 to a billion was the right number.

當然。是的。所以我的意思是，我認為總體情況是，在第三季度，我們的表現符合預期，而在第四季度，除了體育比賽結果之外，所有基本面都指向，你知道，正是我們認為可能會更好一點的狀況Q3 和 Q4。所以，你知道，也許有一些理由讓我們感到更樂觀。顯然，我們也受到了體育比賽結果的影響。所以我認為，你知道，在獲取客戶方面也要謹慎。此時我們對提高指南感到不舒服，但我們確實看到了一些非常有趣的事情，你知道，從混合的角度來看，NFL 和NBA 的連本帶利組合同比增長了500 個基點，這是一個非常強勁的開局這確實給了我們一些信心，認為可能會有一些好處。但現在，我們覺得根據我們所掌握的數據，這是正確的地方，並且感覺，你知道，真正的宏觀故事可能有一點好處，但更多，更多的是，我們在過去的幾年中確實重申了這一點幾個季度以來，所有讓我們感覺 900 到 10 億是正確數字的關鍵基本面。

Great. And then maybe just a big picture. One, Jason, I'm, I'm curious your thoughts on the non sports betting prediction markets and and whether that's, you know, an opportunity or how you think about that from a product standpoint, from a, from a competition standpoint as either, you know, cannibalizing or an opportunity for, for OS B&I gaming. Thanks.

偉大的。然後也許只是一幅大圖。一，傑森，我很好奇你對非體育博彩預測市場的看法，以及這是否是一個機會，或者你如何從產品的角度、從競爭的角度來看待這個問題你知道，對於OS B&I 遊戲來說，要嘛是蠶食，要嘛是機會。謝謝。

Yeah, I think it's a very interesting thing, you know, the market within that that's dominant is election markets, of course, and particularly during Presidential elections. So I know there's a lot of attention on it over the last few weeks and I do think there could be a place for it outside of elections, but that's really where the interest seems to be now from a demand, customer demand side. So definitely something we're looking at in advance of next Presidential election and you know, potentially there'll be an opportunity to look at something sooner. It is a different framework, you know, it's not licensed as a betting product, it's licensed as financial market. So, you know, it's definitely a very different thing. So we'll have to see where it fits in the priority list, but it is something we'll plan on looking at ahead of next election. For sure.

是的，我認為這是一件非常有趣的事情，你知道，其中占主導地位的市場當然是選舉市場，特別是在總統選舉期間。所以我知道過去幾週人們對它有很多關注，我確實認為在選舉之外它可能還有一席之地，但這確實是現在從需求、客戶需求方面的興趣所在。因此，我們肯定會在下次總統選舉之前考慮一些事情，而且您知道，可能有機會更快地考慮一些事情。這是一個不同的框架，你知道，它不是作為博彩產品獲得許可，而是作為金融市場獲得許可。所以，你知道，這絕對是一件非常不同的事情。因此，我們必須看看它在優先清單中的位置，但這是我們計劃在下次選舉之前考慮的事情。一定。

Great. Thanks so. Much.

偉大的。非常感謝。很多。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格蘭布林，摩根士丹利。

Hey, thanks. I'm going to try to roll two into one here. One is just on the guidance for 2025. I guess. What level of customer acquisition or user growth do you have embedded in the revenue guide? And then secondarily, you talked about the 500 basis points increase in parlays within the football season, I guess. What is, what do you think is explicitly driving that? And is that going to carry over into other sports in the next year? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝。我將嘗試在這裡將二合一。我猜，其中之一隻是關於 2025 年的指導。您在收入指南中嵌入了何種程度的客戶獲取或用戶成長？其次，我猜您談到了足球賽季內連贏彩金增加了 500 個基點。您認為是什麼明確地推動了這一點？這會在明年延續到其他運動嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, it's a great question. I think on the first one, you know, as we noted, we're fairly cautious with customer acquisition from, you know, promotional budgeting perspective, but we also are not counting on a lot of volume from customers that we acquire. It's mostly existing customers. So I think that's really been built up from years and years of cohort data and we feel very good about those assumptions. And then of course, as we noted, we expect structural hold to be around 11% next year. So that's another key assumption that we have. And then, you know, I think I'm sorry, what was your second question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，在第一個方面，正如我們所指出的，從促銷預算的角度來看，我們對獲取客戶相當謹慎，但我們也不指望從我們獲取的大量客戶中獲得大量客戶。大部分都是現有客戶。所以我認為這確實是根據多年的隊列數據建立的，我們對這些假設感覺非常好。當然，正如我們所指出的，我們預計明年的結構性持有量將在 11% 左右。這是我們的另一個關鍵假設。然後，你知道，我想我很抱歉，你的第二個問題是什麼。

Just if you think about what's the drivers of the 500 basis points? I think the increase in parlays. And does that carry over into other sports? Is there specific product changes?

想想500個基點的驅動因素是什麼？我認為連贏彩的增加。這會延續到其他運動嗎？具體產品有變化嗎？

Yeah, it's a great. So, I mean, a lot of it is product, we've introduced a lot of new features. We have live S GP markets across NFL NBA and other sports now. So a lot of it is just product and product availability. I think we've really increased our abilities around merchandizing and creating, you know, interesting player props and combinations of player props into prepacked parlays. And I think that's been a factor. So, you know, it's a number of things, our marketing approach, it's a lot of different pieces moving towards that objective that have driven it as far as does that carry over other sports, you know, definitely have some, you know, encouraging early signs in NBA that we're seeing and, you know, for us, that's the other big one, right? Because it's the other big sport. But also it's the sport that has such a heavy S GP mix in general and is just naturally player oriented as a sport. So that's a big one. And then baseball, we're also very excited about that being a, you know, a driver of parlay mix in baseball too. You know, we really pushed on touchdowns this year, I think home runs and, is a good analogy for that in baseball. So definitely a lot of translatable insights, I think. But obviously each sport is different too. So we'll have to see as each season starts how it goes.

是的，這是一個偉大的。所以，我的意思是，很多都是產品，我們引進了許多新功能。我們現在在 NFL NBA 和其他體育項目中都有現場 S GP 市場。所以很多只是產品和產品可用性。我認為我們確實提高了銷售和創造有趣的玩家道具以及將玩家道具組合到預先包裝的連贏彩中的能力。我認為這是一個因素。所以，你知道，有很多事情，我們的行銷方法，有很多不同的部分朝著這個目標邁進，推動了它與其他運動一樣，你知道，肯定有一些，你知道，令人鼓舞的我們在NBA看到的早期跡象，你知道，對我們來說，這是另一個重大跡象，對吧？因為這是另一項大型運動。但這項運動總體上具有如此濃厚的 S GP 混合性，並且作為一項運動自然而然地以玩家為導向。所以這是一件大事。然後是棒球，我們也非常興奮，因為這也是棒球中連本帶利組合的推手。你知道，我們今年確實推動了達陣，我認為本壘打，這是棒球中的一個很好的類比。我認為肯定有很多可翻譯的見解。但顯然每項運動也不同。所以我們必須看看每個賽季開始時情況如何。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

本·柴肯，瑞穗。

Hey, thanks, Jason. The elevated external marketing for, for 25. Totally makes sense. But I guess the question is in 24 you had a similar opportunity to acquire customers that you didn't see coming at the beginning of the year. How are you estimating that opportunity in 25 you know, a year plus out? And I know you, I think you said you're taking a conservative angle but again, just more. So how did you quantify the magnitude of the opportunity for something that seems maybe hard to predict? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝，傑森。 25 人的外部行銷提升。但我想問題是在 24 年，你有一個類似的機會來獲得你在年初沒有看到的客戶。您如何估計 25 年後（一年多後）的機會？我了解你，我想你說過你採取保守的角度，但同樣，只是更多。那麼，您該如何量化看似難以預測的事情的機會大小呢？謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, I think we can because it's hard to predict. We, we really tried to from a cost perspective, approach it cautiously, but then in terms of the revenue, we would be counting on, not count on a huge year for customer acquisition. So we tried to kind of be cautious on both sides of the equation and, and that's how you approach anything. I think when it's hard to predict. The other thing I note is that the addition of Jackpocket, which really we only had for about half a year, a little over half a year also makes a big difference and this year there were no big jackpots. So, I think that's not normal. Last year, there were three, I think, billion plus dollar jackpot. So we also want to make sure that if we get some big jackpots in the lottery next year, we have some customer acquisition budget for that. And you know, just remember even that alone going from half a year ish a little more than half a year to a full year is also more marketing and and more new customers. So that's part of the story as well.

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們可以，因為這很難預測。我們確實試圖從成本角度謹慎對待它，但就收入而言，我們將指望而不是指望在客戶獲取方面取得巨大的進展。因此，我們試圖在等式的兩邊保持謹慎，這就是處理任何事情的方式。我認為很難預測的時候。我注意到的另一件事是，增加了 Jackpocket，實際上我們只有大約半年，半年多一點，這也產生了很大的不同，今年沒有大的累積獎金。所以，我認為這不正常。我認為去年有三筆獎金超過十億美元。因此，我們也想確保，如果明年我們在彩票中獲得了一些大頭獎，我們就會有一些客戶獲取預算。你知道，只要記住，即使是從半年多一點到一整年，也需要更多的行銷和更多的新客戶。這也是故事的一部分。

Got you then just some back of the envelope. Math. Is it fair to say you held light by about 500 basis points in October? I'm basically saying the 250 of hold divided by an estimated October handle on our end.

然後給你一些信封背面的東西。數學。可以公平地說 10 月你持有約 500 個基點嗎？我基本上是說 250 的持有量除以我們這邊估計的 10 月份的手柄數。

Does that sound right?

聽起來對嗎？

You, you're you are about right. Good math, good math work.

你，你，你說得對。數學好，數學作業好。

Clark Lampen, BTIG.

克拉克·蘭彭，BTIG。

Thanks for taking the question, Jason. I wanted to follow up on structural hold rates. You called out 11 for next year. You're pacing towards 10.5. Hopefully without sounding too myopic why only 50 basis points of increase expected? When I I think a lot of the conversation we've had so far around product mix shifts and the momentum that you guys are seeing with. Packaging product, you know, stuff like that. It all feels quite positive.

感謝您提出問題，傑森。我想跟進結構性持有率。你為明年喊出了11個。您正朝著 10.5 邁進。希望聽起來不會太短視，為什麼預期增幅只有 50 個基點？當我想到我們迄今為止圍繞著產品組合轉變和你們所看到的勢頭進行的許多對話時。包裝產品，你知道的，諸如此類的東西。一切都感覺非常積極。

Yeah, I think that's what we feel we have the line of sight to commit to right now and it's more of how we view our commitment than what we really want to achieve. Our internal goals will certainly be higher than that. But, you know, as we think about what we want to guide and, and not even being into 2025 yet, just wanted to make sure that we, we, we really only committed to something that we are highly confident in based on what we know right now.

是的，我認為這就是我們認為我們現在可以承諾的目標，更多的是我們如何看待我們的承諾，而不是我們真正想要實現的目標。我們的內在目標肯定會比這更高。但是，你知道，當我們思考我們想要指導什麼時，甚至還沒有進入 2025 年，只是想確保我們、我們、我們真的只致力於我們基於我們非常有信心的事情。

How does, how does micro betting, I guess, sort of factor into that if at all also next year. And I'm curious if you could give us an update maybe on the simple bet integration and perhaps, when we might start to see, I guess some of the product that's sort of in pipeline, starting to roll out. Thank you.

我猜，明年的微型投注會如何影響這個因素（如果有的話）。我很好奇您能否給我們提供有關簡單投注集成的最新信息，也許當我們開始看到時，我猜一些產品正在醞釀中，開始推出。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a great question. So, I mean, simple bet has been a partner of ours for a while. So a lot of this was one about bringing a cost in house to really being able to take it to the next level. So, you know, we do have a lot of micro betting offerings now, but I think a lot of what we're going to develop, going into next year will really be at the top of the market and I think will separate us and, and really differentiate us in the live betting side and, you know, it won't just be micros. There are all sorts of live betting and derivative markets that simple bet will help us with. So we're very excited about that. I think if you think about the impact on hold, you know, live betting does have lower hold rates. So as we mix more into live betting, it will naturally have some impact on, on lowering the overall average hold. But obviously we believe it's highly incremental volume. So that's a good thing. And, you know, at the same time, the other lever is we do believe that there's places that we have the opportunity to move live betting, hold rate up. So while as a whole, it's lower, we might be able to offset any of the mix shift and maybe even, you know, offset it to the positive with having actually higher hold rates within the live betting in pockets where it's not high enough today. So those are all things I think simple that will really help us with. And then obviously on the prematch side, we'll continue to push hard on parlay mix. And I think overall we expect as we noted structural hold to go up, but it'll certainly be a mix of, you know, live betting and, and, and overall kind of performance on the pre match side.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所以，我的意思是，simple bet 已經成為我們的合作夥伴有一段時間了。因此，這在很大程度上是為了真正能夠將其提升到一個新的水平，從而增加內部成本。所以，你知道，我們現在確實有很多微型投注產品，但我認為我們明年要開發的許多產品將真正處於市場的頂端，我認為這將使我們和，並真正使我們在現場投注方面脫穎而出，而且您知道，這不僅僅是微型遊戲。有各種各樣的現場投注和衍生性商品市場，簡單的投注就能幫助我們。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我想如果你考慮一下保留的影響，你就會知道，現場投注的保留率確實較低。因此，當我們更融入現場投注時，自然會對降低整體平均持有率產生一些影響。但顯然我們相信這是一個高度增量的數量。所以這是一件好事。而且，你知道，同時，另一個槓桿是我們確實相信我們有機會在某些地方移動現場投注，提高保留率。因此，雖然整體而言，它較低，但我們也許能夠抵消任何混合變化，甚至可能，你知道，通過在今天不夠高的地區的實時投注中擁有更高的保留率來抵消它的積極影響。所以這些都是我認為簡單但真正對我們有幫助的事情。顯然，在賽前方面，我們將繼續努力推動連贏組合。我認為總體而言，正如我們注意到的那樣，我們預計結構性保留會上升，但這肯定會是現場投注和賽前整體表現的混合體。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Stauff, Susquehanna.

喬·斯塔夫，薩斯奎哈納。

Okay. Good morning, Jason.

好的。早上好，傑森。

I had a question, you know, maybe if you could describe maybe retention levels and what they look like between say an Os B and a casino customer. The reason I ask is, you know, certainly within Os B, you know, you have a significantly larger competitive advantage, given your product and number of iterations and so forth and the amount of share that you have versus the casino market, that certainly seems finite today and more competitive. And so I was just curious about, you know, what those retention levels look like between, you know, say both of those customers.

我有一個問題，你知道，也許你能描述一下保留等級以及他們在 Os B 和賭場客戶之間的情況。我問的原因是，你知道，當然在Os B 內，你知道，考慮到你的產品和迭代次數等等，以及你相對於賭場市場所擁有的份額，你擁有明顯更大的競爭優勢，這當然今天似乎有限且更具競爭力。所以我只是好奇，你知道，這兩位客戶說，這些保留水準是什麼樣的。

Yeah, it's actually, you know, not too different. The retention and sports betting is naturally a little bit better, but it's not as different as you might think. And, you know, from our perspective, we, we view our eye gaming offering as top of the market we have, you know, we've noted been rated the number one and number two ranked apps and product quality for draftkings in the Golden Nugget brands respectively. And, you know, we think our eye gaming app is, is clearly heads and shoulders the best product. So, you know, I do think that you're right, it's a bit more competitive. And, and so naturally, there's a little bit more fragmentation, but if you look at our share in I gaming, it's not that much lower than our share in sports betting. And we expect that to have some upside too as we continue to improve the product.

是的，實際上，你知道，並沒有太大不同。留存率和體育博彩自然要好一些，但並沒有你想像的那麼不同。而且，您知道，從我們的角度來看，我們認為我們的眼睛遊戲產品是市場上的頂級產品，您知道，我們已經註意到，我們在金獎中被評為第一名和第二名的繪圖王應用程式和產品品質分別為金塊品牌。而且，您知道，我們認為我們的眼睛遊戲應用程式顯然是最好的產品。所以，你知道，我確實認為你是對的，它更具競爭力。而且，很自然地，會有更多的碎片化，但如果你看看我們在博彩中的份額，它並不比我們在體育博彩中的份額低多少。我們預計，隨著我們不斷改進產品，這也會帶來一些好處。

Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

丹‧波利策，富國銀行。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, everyone and thanks for taking my question. I, I know a lot of the focus has been on the 2020. So I've got but you know, one of the things I was looking back at your investor day last year, you actually forecast revenue of 2026 at 6.2 billion. So as you think about that relationship and maybe, you know, that could be just stale at this point, but we think about kind of the, the the path forward outside of 2025 the flow drill and maybe the leverage as, as maybe you kind of look to, to exceed prior targets given there seems to be upside on revenue. How should we think about that kind of going forward and along with that, you know, sales and marketing, you guys did a lot of deals in 2020 2021 probably, you know, rolling off soon. So, I mean, is that also an opportunity as we think about kind of the flow through as we move past 2020 five?

嘿，大家早上好，感謝您提出我的問題。我，我知道很多焦點都集中在 2020 年。 所以我已經知道了，但你知道，我在去年的投資者日回顧的一件事是，你實際上預測 2026 年的收入為 62 億美元。因此，當你思考這種關係時，也許，你知道，目前這種關係可能已經過時了，但我們會考慮 2025 年之後的前進道路、流程演練以及槓桿作用，就像你所說的那樣鑑於收入似乎有上升空間，我們希望能夠超越先前的目標。我們應該如何看待這種未來的發展，伴隨著銷售和行銷，你們在 2020 年、2021 年做了很多交易，你知道，很快就會結束。所以，我的意思是，當我們考慮 2020 年五週年之後的流程時，這也是一個機會嗎？

I do think to your last point, that is an opportunity and you know, I'm glad you brought up the Investor day, I think that you know, we were a little conservative in the Investor Day in terms of the overall industry growth. I I believe we're around 9% Cegr and flat share. So, you know, what we're seeing is that the growth is just much stronger. And as you noted, we're actually going to be where we thought we'd be in 2026 and 2025 with much stronger customer acquisition and, and continued growth. So I think there is some upside there. And obviously that means that the flow through is going to have to catch up as the growth slows down in the outer years. But I think right now we're seeing really encouraging sides that the TAM is bigger than probably we, we thought when we did the Investor Day. And as you noted, we're already a year ahead of where we thought we'd be.

我確實認為你的最後一點是，這是一個機會，你知道，我很高興你提到了投資者日，我認為你知道，就整體行業增長而言，我們在投資者日有點保守。我相信我們的 Cegr 約為 9%，份額持平。所以，你知道，我們看到的是成長更加強勁。正如您所指出的，我們實際上將在 2026 年和 2025 年達到我們預期的目標，客戶獲取和持續成長將更加強勁。所以我認為這有一些好處。顯然，這意味著隨著外部年份成長放緩，流量必須趕上。但我認為現在我們看到了真正令人鼓舞的一面，即 TAM 比我們在舉辦投資者日時所想的還要大。正如您所指出的，我們已經比預期提前了一年。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, everybody. I'd like to dig in a little bit more on the 11% hold number. Jason, how do you think about that? 50 BPS lift in terms of average parlay or parley mix versus average number of leg count improvement? And could you get there just by anniversarying the parlay mix lift you're seeing today, understanding that there's differences in your product across sports and then the last part of this question is with regards to your main competitor and the whole, that you, I know that you see that they do, you know, what would it take to get to something a little bit closer to what they're doing next year? Is that even possible? Like a 12 or 13%? What would that take?

大家早安。我想進一步深入了解 11% 的持有數字。傑森，你對此有何看法？平均連贏或連贏組合與平均賽局數改善相比，提升 50 BPS？你能否透過慶祝你今天看到的連贏混合提升週年紀念，了解你的產品在不同運動項目中存在差異，然後這個問題的最後一部分是關於你的主要競爭對手和整體，即你，我你知道你看到他們這樣做了，你知道，要採取什麼措施才能更接近他們明年所做的事情？這可能嗎？例如 12% 或 13%？那需要什麼？

Yeah. And as to your first question, it's really mix driven and, I think we, we can get there based on just the mix shifts we're seeing, albeit, you know, obviously there's some assumptions around which sports they're likely to trans, you know, transfer into. For example, we are not expecting next year, nearly the mix shift in college sports because they tend to be less player prop oriented and therefore less parlay heavy. But, you know, with the kind of nuances aside, I think, yes, we can, we can get there based on the mix shift we're seeing. And I think that, you know, what the path to 12 13% is really mix driven. I mean, there's other things, of course, on the margin you can always do to improve your sharp modeling, improve, you know, your risk mitigation, things like that, but 90 plus percent of it is just mix. So we're continuing to focus on that. It's been a real great point of success this year. We feel like we have a great plan going into next year. Drive even higher. And you know, it's exciting to know that there's a clear path to getting much higher on hold rate. And we think that is actually a big upside lever of the business that that may, maybe, maybe people aren't counting on.

是的。至於你的第一個問題，這確實是混合驅動的，我認為我們可以根據我們所看到的混合變化來實現這一目標，儘管你知道，顯然有一些關於他們可能會進行哪些運動的假設，你知道，轉入。例如，我們預計明年大學運動不會出現混合變化，因為它們往往不太注重球員道具，因此連本帶利也較少。但是，你知道，撇開這些細微差別不談，我認為，是的，我們可以，我們可以根據我們所看到的混合轉變來實現這一目標。我認為，你知道，通往 12-13% 的道路實際上是混合驅動的。我的意思是，當然，你還可以做一些其他事情來改進你的敏銳建模，提高你知道的風險緩解，諸如此類的事情，但其中 90% 以上只是混合。所以我們將繼續關注這一點。今年真是個巨大的成功。我們覺得明年我們有一個偉大的計劃。開得更高。你知道，知道有一條明確的途徑可以提高保留率是令人興奮的。我們認為這實際上是該業務的一個巨大的上行槓桿，但人們可能並沒有指望它。

Excellent. Thank you.

出色的。謝謝。

Jed Kelly, Oppenheimer.

傑德凱利，奧本海默。

Hey, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just on eye gaming. Can you sort of talk about the promotional velocity? How that's trended over the last couple of quarters where that's going into 25? And then just on the, you, you had a king of the court promotion? I thought it was really good. Can you talk about any learnings or engagement and the ability to sort of do some type of a social par Lala or social promotion again? Thanks.

嘿，太棒了。感謝您回答我的問題。只是眼睛遊戲。能談談促銷速度嗎？過去幾季的趨勢如何（即將進入 25 個季度）？然後就你你你升了宮廷之王?我覺得這真的很好。你能談談任何學習或參與以及再次進行某種類型的社交拉拉或社交推廣的能力嗎？謝謝。

Thanks. Yeah. So, I mean for on the king of the core promotion, it's been a real big success for us. We've been very pleased with the results and I do think to your point, it's something we can build on in the future. We're always trying different things. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't, but we try to build on principles of what works. So, you know, if we see certain types of promotions are working, we don't just say, hey, run the same promotion. We ask ourselves why and try to come up with other promotions with similar mechanics. So this is really a creation of a number of other things that we had seen working and we had high confidence running it going into the season so far, it's been a huge success. And then sorry, what was the first question that you asked?

謝謝。是的。所以，我的意思是，對於核心促銷之王來說，這對我們來說是一個真正的巨大成功。我們對結果非常滿意，我確實認為按照你的觀點，這是我們未來可以繼續發展的東西。我們總是在嘗試不同的事情。有時它們有效，有時無效，但我們嘗試建立有效的原則。所以，你知道，如果我們看到某些類型的促銷活動正在發揮作用，我們不會只是說，嘿，進行同樣的促銷活動。我們問自己為什麼，並嘗試提出其他具有類似機制的促銷活動。因此，這實際上是我們已經看到的許多其他事情的創造，到目前為止，我們對進入本賽季充滿信心，它取得了巨大的成功。抱歉，您問的第一個問題是什麼？

Eye gaming? Promotional velocity?

眼睛遊戲？促銷速度？

Yeah, it's been pretty steady year over year. New customer acquisition has been up as we noted. So, you know, with that adjusted out, it's been pretty steady year over year. Each year though, we continue to see a decline because same as sports book as you have less and less new customers as the overall percentage of the mix. You're just going to naturally see decline.

是的，一年比一年穩定。正如我們所指出的，新客戶獲取量增加。所以，你知道，經過調整後，每年的情況都相當穩定。不過，我們每年都會看到下降的趨勢，因為與體育博彩一樣，新客戶在整體比例中所佔的比例越來越少。你自然會看到衰退。

Barry Jonas, Truist Securities.

巴里·喬納斯 (Barry Jonas)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning, with Missouri approving Os B curious what states you're eye next for Os B or even eye gaming and maybe specifically wanted to get your thoughts on Florida given recent comments from the Seminoles, maybe opening the door for others. Thank you.

嘿，早安，密蘇裡州批准了Os B，好奇你接下來會關注Os B 的狀態，甚至是眼睛遊戲，也許特別想了解你對佛羅裡達州的看法，因為塞米諾爾人最近發表了評論，也許為其他人打開了大門。謝謝。

I mean, you know, it's always hard to predict states at this point. We, you know, everybody's kind of now finally turning their attention from the election to the upcoming legislative sessions next year. And so starting to have a lot of those discussions. But I think if you kind of look at where we left off last year and some of the bills that got close, obviously got through one house in Texas. You know, still some big hurdles there but hoping that we can figure out a path, Georgia, same thing got through the Senate. You know, hoping there's a path there. Minnesota got very close to the goal line last year. So hoping that we can get that one across this year. And then on the eye gaming side, I think New York and Illinois are obviously two big ones. We're keeping an eye on and I think could potentially have some momentum and then, you know, some others that I think could potentially get there in the next year or two are Maryland and North Carolina. So those are all states that we're looking at, but, you know, always going into that, you think it's going to be a few and then inevitably some of the ones you felt good about don't pan out and then there's some that you didn't see coming that end up, you know, having a real chance of success and maybe getting over the line. So it's early just came off the election. But, you know, based on kind of where the momentum was and where we were last session, the last set of sessions, I think those are some of the ones to keep an eye on.

我的意思是，你知道，此時預測狀態總是很困難。我們，你知道，現在每個人終於將注意力從選舉轉向明年即將舉行的立法會議。所以開始有很多這樣的討論。但我認為，如果你看看我們去年停止的地方，以及一些接近的法案，顯然是通過了德克薩斯州的一所房子。你知道，那裡仍然存在一些大障礙，但希望我們能找到一條道路，喬治亞州，參議院也通過了同樣的事情。你知道，希望那裡有一條路。明尼蘇達去年非常接近目標線。所以希望我們今年能夠實現這個目標。然後在眼睛遊戲方面，我認為紐約和伊利諾伊州顯然是兩個大的。我們正在密切關注，我認為可能會有一些動力，然後，你知道，我認為可能在未來一兩年內實現這一目標的其他一些國家是馬裡蘭州和北卡羅來納州。所以這些都是我們正在考慮的狀態，但是，你知道，總是進入這個狀態，你認為這會是一些，然後不可避免地有些你感覺良好的狀態不會成功，然後就會有一些你知道，你沒有預見到最終會發生這樣的事情，有真正的成功機會，也許會越過界限。所以選舉剛結束還太早。但是，你知道，根據勢頭以及我們上一次會議、最後一組會議的情況，我認為這些都是值得關注的。

Great and any thoughts on Florida.

太棒了，還有關於佛羅裡達的任何想法。

Oh, you know, very encouraged to hear those comments. We really have a ton of respect for hard rock and for the Seminoles and Jim Allen has done a fantastic job and enjoyed, you know, spending time getting to know him and his team. So, we'll see how that all plays out. Obviously, Florida is a big state and, you know, something that we'd be very excited if there were a path to be able to offer our product to customers there. But, you know, not, not really up to us, we'll have to see what they want to do and, and how the discussions progress. And you know, obviously, if there's any material, we'll come talk about it. But at this point, I wouldn't say that it's very far along and there's been a lot of speculation in the press, but really, I think it's pretty early stage.

哦，你知道，聽到這些評論我很受鼓舞。我們真的非常尊重硬搖滾和塞米諾爾人，吉姆艾倫做得非常出色，並且很高興花時間了解他和他的團隊。那麼，我們將看看這一切如何進行。顯然，佛羅裡達州是一個大州，如果有一條途徑能夠向那裡的客戶提供我們的產品，我們會非常興奮。但是，你知道，這並不取決於我們，我們必須看看他們想做什麼，以及討論進展如何。你知道，顯然，如果有任何材料，我們會來討論。但在這一點上，我不會說這已經很遙遠了，媒體上也有很多猜測，但實際上，我認為這還處於早期階段。

Great. Thank you very. Much.

偉大的。非常感謝。很多。

Bernie McTernan, Needham & Company.

伯尼·麥克特南，李約瑟公司。

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just to start with the expectation of 850 million of free cash flow for 25. How should investors think about the use of cash, particularly for buybacks next year and then just a follow up on hold. We all can track what happens with certain game outcomes and how that, you know, with favorites winning, how that can negatively impact hold, is it possible to disaggregate the the total impact and hold between what was going on with, team outcomes versus player props in the quarter.

偉大的。早安.感謝您提出問題。也許只是從 25 年 8.5 億自由現金流的預期開始。我們都可以追蹤某些比賽結果所發生的情況，以及如何，你知道，熱門球隊獲勝，這如何對保持產生負面影響，是否有可能分解球隊結果與球員之間發生的總影響和保持本季度的道具。

And let me quickly touch on the latter and then I'll have Allen take your first question. We're not at this time breaking down the whole, but, you know, what you can probably guess is that, it's a mix of both. So, you know, typically when favorites win, it's good for the customer and typically when the big name players get lots of yards and score touchdowns, it's good for the customer. So, you know, when you're seeing the backup tight ends and running backs get in the end zone and low scoring games where the underdogs are winning and typically that's good for the house. So, you know, that's how I think about it. It was a, it was a mix and, you know, if you're going to see the type of result that we saw start the quarter, it has to be because it was, it was that bad, but, you know, when it swings the other way, it could swing the other way hard too. So, a lot of time left in the quarter and obviously a lot of time left in the season. And Allen, do you want to touch on that 850 million in free cash flow and how we're thinking about that?

讓我快速談談後者，然後我將讓艾倫回答你的第一個問題。我們現在不會分解整體，但是，你知道，你可能會猜到，這是兩者的混合。所以，你知道，通常當熱門球隊獲勝時，這對客戶有利，而通常當大牌球員獲得大量碼數並達陣得分時，這對客戶有利。所以，你知道，當你看到替補近端鋒和跑衛進入達陣區和低分比賽時，弱隊獲勝，這通常對球隊有利。所以，你知道，我就是這麼想的。這是一個，這是一個混合，你知道，如果你想看到我們在本季度開始看到的結果類型，那一定是因為它是，那是那麼糟糕，但是，你知道，當它會向另一個方向擺動，它也可能會向另一個方向擺動。因此，本季還剩下很多時間，顯然本賽季還剩下很多時間。艾倫，您想談談 8.5 億美元的自由現金流嗎？

Yeah, we, we feel really good about having positive free cash flow, not just in 2024. But the 850 you mentioned that we're expecting in 2025 we're keeping our eyes on the market. We expect to act responsibly, but you should expect us to be more active with three purchases in future quarters as we scale into our free cash flow and as we have more of the quiz.

是的，我們對擁有正的自由現金流感到非常高興，不僅僅是在 2024 年。我們期望採取負責任的行動，但隨著我們擴大自由現金流並且我們有更多的測驗，您應該期望我們在未來幾季會更加積極地進行三筆購買。

Fair enough. Thank you both.

很公平。謝謝你們倆。

Michael Graham, Canaccord.

邁克爾·格雷厄姆，Canaccord。

Thank you. I just wanted to ask about one of your slides in the deck. You know, you say you have 3.6 million upps at the end of the quarter and 9.3 million total customers. I just wanted to ask if you could update us on your strategies for reactivating, you know, customers who have not engaged recently. Is it just, you know, a matter of promotional spend or is there, are there other things you're doing?

謝謝。我只是想問一下你的幻燈片中的一張。您知道，您說本季末您有 360 萬個 upps，總客戶數為 930 萬。我只是想問您是否可以向我們介紹一下您重新激活最近沒有參與的客戶的策略。這只是促銷支出的問題還是您正在做其他事情？

I'd say it's a great question. It's a really important thing as obviously just core retention is important as the base gets bigger. And we view tension activation monetization is the ultimate, you know, keys to winning. Obviously, acquisition is very important too, but over the long term, it's about retaining and getting great usage and, and game play out of your customers. So definitely an important topic. I kind of look at it on two dimensions. So one or just the constant always on type of tactics where you know, we see, you know, particular things that, that we believe either are going to lead to attrition or recent lapses in customers. We can trigger different types of CRM treatments and retargeting treatments that will we go and try to get them to reactivate. And then you know, the other vector I would say is, is really more seasonal around like event driven activation. So think like start of NFL season as an example or Super Bowl. And so really thinking about how do you use those moments when you know there's going to be a lot of natural reactivation in the market to get not only additional reactivation but also to make sure the natural activation you're getting as much of that as possible. I kind of think of the start of NFL season as a lot of people who maybe at one point signed up for more than one book are going to decide where they want to start playing this season. So you want to make sure it's with you and obviously, as you do that season after season, they tend to not think about it and just come back to, to their favorite app. So that's a lot of what we try to do is really use those big moments to win our share of the activation and also try to drive incremental activation through CRM.

我想說這是一個很好的問題。這是一件非常重要的事情，因為隨著基礎變大，核心保留顯然很重要。我們認為，張力激活貨幣化是最終獲勝的關鍵。顯然，獲取也非常重要，但從長遠來看，它是為了保留並獲得客戶的良好使用和遊戲體驗。所以絕對是個重要的議題。我有點從兩個維度來看它。因此，一種或只是一種持續不斷的策略，您知道，我們看到，您知道，我們相信這些特定的事情會導致客戶流失或最近流失。我們可以觸發不同類型的 CRM 治療和重定向治療，並嘗試讓它們重新激活。然後你知道，我要說的另一個向量是，實際上更具季節性，例如事件驅動的激活。以 NFL 賽季開始或超級盃為例。因此，真正思考當您知道市場上將會有許多自然重新激活時，您如何利用這些時刻，不僅獲得額外的重新激活，而且確保您獲得盡可能多的自然激活。我認為 NFL 賽季的開始是因為很多人可能在某個時候訂閱了不止一本書，他們將決定他們想在本賽季從哪裡開始打球。所以你想確保它在你身邊，顯然，當你一季又一季地這樣做時，他們往往不會考慮它，只是回到他們最喜歡的應用程式。因此，我們嘗試做的很多事情就是利用這些重要時刻來贏得我們的激活份額，並嘗試透過 CRM 推動增量激活。

Okay. Thank you, Jason.

好的。謝謝你，傑森。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Obviously with the 30% growth for 25 you have a lot of focus areas that you need to be dialed into. But Jason, I wonder if anything has changed just in terms of beginning to look at some international markets or more importantly, when is the right time to start considering growing in other markets as as top line might begin to slow if there's no legislation here in North America. Thanks.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。顯然，隨著 25 人成長 30%，您有很多需要關注的重點領域。但是傑森，我想知道在開始關註一些國際市場方面是否發生了任何變化，或者更重要的是，什麼時候是開始考慮在其他市場成長的合適時機，因為如果沒有立法，收入可能會開始放緩北美。謝謝。

Yeah, it's, I mean, you know, definitely don't feel like it is a need. It's more of an opportunistic thing at this point. So it's not to say that if the right opportunity came about, we, we wouldn't pursue an international expansion, you know, strategy, but I, I don't think we feel like it's a need. We are still and, you know, the growth and even without a ton of new states launching next year, we're still well easily into a rule of 40 company with over 30% growth and you know, around a 15% to margin. So definitely feel really good about you know, where we are from a growth perspective and and don't need to look to those things. But also if the right opportunity comes along, we would be, you know, open to it. And, you know, I think we're staying patient and waiting for the right thing.

是的，我的意思是，你知道，絕對不覺得這是一個需要。在這一點上，這更像是一種機會主義的事情。因此，這並不是說，如果有合適的機會，我們就不會追求國際擴張策略，但我認為我們沒有必要這樣做。你知道，我們仍然在成長，即使明年沒有推出大量新州，我們仍然很容易進入 40 家公司成長超過 30% 的規則，你知道，利潤率約為 15%。所以，從成長的角度來看，我們所處的位置肯定感覺很好，而且不需要關注這些事情。但如果有合適的機會出現，我們也會對此持開放態度。而且，你知道，我認為我們正在保持耐心，等待正確的事情發生。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Jeffrey Stantial, Stifel.

傑弗裡·斯坦蒂爾，斯蒂菲爾。

Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our question. Jason, I wanted to drill down into a comment you made early on in the call. If I caught it correctly, you said both the volume of users acquired and the sign up offer per user acquired were both up year on year. The promotional reinvestment as you as you know in the letter was down about 300 dips year on year. Is that, is that mostly retention bonusing optimization and structural hold expansion that's driving that improvement. And and then strategically should we think about the higher nominal sign up offer as being mostly opportunistic in the current user acquisition environment or, or how much is it informed by, you know, more, more what certain competitors are offering?

偉大的。大家早安。感謝您提出我們的問題。傑森，我想深入了解您在通話初期發表的評論。如果我沒聽錯的話，您說獲得的用戶量和獲得的每個用戶的註冊優惠均同比增長。正如您在信中所知，促銷再投資年減了約 300 倍。那就是，主要是保留獎金優化和結構性持有擴張推動了這項改進。然後，我們是否應該從策略上考慮，在當前的用戶獲取環境中，更高的名義註冊優惠主要是機會主義的，或者，或者，或者，或者，或者，你知道，更多、更多的某些競爭對手提供的產品有多少資訊？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure. So a couple of things I point to one definitely have seen some improvement year over year on the retention side and two, even though yes, we did see an increase year over year, new customer mix or new customer volume, the mix actually shifted more towards existing customers just because of the growth of the retention side of the the universe. So we did see, you know, both I think, which is great an increase but also a shift towards a more mature customer base. And, and so those combinations ended up netting into some decline in an overall promotion rate as well. So those are the big factors. But really, you know, for us, the, the expectation is that even if we do continue to see more new customers and in a rapidly increasing industry, we, we don't actually think that it will be at 11, even in our most kind of, you know, aggressive or, I guess from a promotion standpoint, conservative estimates, we don't think it will reach a level where the overall mix is still not going to continue to shift more and more towards mature existing users each year. So we should continue to expect to see that drive down promotion rate each subsequent year. Barring maybe a new large state opening up, like if a California opened up or Texas, that could obviously in the short term sway it, but from an existing state basis, we don't see that being the case.

當然。因此，我指出的幾件事，一是在保留方面肯定逐年看到了一些改善，二是，儘管是的，我們確實看到了逐年增長，新客戶組合或新客戶量，組合實際上發生了更多變化僅僅因為宇宙保留方面的成長而吸引現有客戶。所以我們確實看到，我認為這是一個巨大的成長，但也是向更成熟的客戶群的轉變。而且，這些組合最終也導致整體晉升率下降。這些都是重要因素。但實際上，你知道，對我們來說，期望是，即使我們確實繼續看到更多新客戶並且在一個快速增長的行業中，我們實際上並不認為它會是 11，即使在我們的大多數，你知道，積極的，或者，我想從促銷的角度來看，保守估計，我們認為它不會達到整體組合仍然不會繼續越來越多地轉向成熟的現有用戶的水平年。因此，我們應該繼續期望看到隨後每年的晉升率都會下降。除非有一個新的大州開放，例如加州或德克薩斯州開放，這顯然會在短期內影響它，但從現有州的基礎來看，我們認為情況並非如此。

Great. And then just in terms of the second part of that question, the the the offer levels per user acquired is that just, you know, opportunistically leaning in when the fish are biting or is there kind of another reason to raise the per user offer?

偉大的。然後就該問題的第二部分而言，每個用戶獲得的報價水平只是，你知道，當魚咬鉤時機會主義地傾斜，或者是否有其他原因來提高每個用戶的報價？

No, we're, we're always experimenting play, I mean, our overall new user offer and, and, and the overall promotion rate for new users has not gone up. But we're always kind of shifting in and out of different offers and changing you know, things around based on what test results say.

不，我們，我們一直在嘗試遊戲，我的意思是，我們的整體新用戶優惠以及新用戶的整體促銷率並沒有上升。但我們總是在不同的報價之間進行切換，並根據測試結果改變你知道的事情。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Jordan Bender, Citizens JMP.

喬丹·本德，公民 JMP。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. The original gross margin guidance for 24 was 45 to 47%. So as we think through the bridge on one hand, Illinois is a negative, what you've noted there should be some offsets game outcomes or one time and jackpocket should be actually positive the gross margin. So I'm just struggling to get why gross margins are essentially in the same place in 25 kind of blending those factors together. Is there anything else that we're missing here?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。 24最初的毛利率指引為45%至47%。因此，當我們一方面通過橋樑思考時，伊利諾伊州是負面的，您已經註意到應該有一些抵消遊戲結果或一次，而獎金實際上應該是正的毛利率。因此，我只是在努力理解為什麼在 25 種將這些因素混合在一起的情況下，毛利率基本上處於同一位置。我們還缺什麼嗎？

I mean, it's really a new user growth. You know, that's been the thing that's been driving the overall promotion level to a point where we didn't see the quite the level gross margin improvement we wanted. But remember Q3, we did see a 300 basis point year over year improvement in gross margin. So, you know, it is definitely trending in the right direction.

我的意思是，這確實是新用戶的成長。您知道，這就是推動整體促銷水準達到我們希望的毛利率改善水準的原因。但請記住第三季度，我們確實看到毛利率比去年同期提高了 300 個基點。所以，你知道，它絕對是朝著正確的方向發展。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ryan Sigdahl, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

瑞安‧西格達爾 (Ryan Sigdahl)，克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團。

Hey, good morning. How much of the 55 million of promotion optimization was because of customer friendly sports outcomes? And you just didn't have to retention, promote quite as much to them versus actual structural change in the promo strategy and playbook that we can run with going forward.

嘿，早安。 5500 萬次促銷優化中有多少是因為客戶友好的體育賽事結果？而且你不必保留，向他們推廣與我們可以繼續運行的促銷策略和劇本中的實際結構變化一樣多。

No, it's, it's really nothing to do with sport outcomes. It's really two things. One, some mitigation of Illinois from the tax increase. And two, we've recently made some real progress in identifying customers that our lower LTV that needed a lower level promotion in order to make sense from an LTV perspective. So we made some optimizations there and actually very happy to say that that resulted in basically no change to revenue, but it did drive significant adjusted EBITA. So that's something that we really think should be, you know, more permanent, but obviously, you know, we'll keep an eye on what happens and, and, and continue to adjust and test it accordingly.

不，它確實與運動表現無關。這確實是兩件事。第一，伊利諾伊州的稅收增加有所緩解。第二，我們最近在識別那些 LTV 較低的客戶方面取得了一些真正的進展，這些客戶需要較低級別的促銷才能從 LTV 的角度來看有意義。因此，我們在那裡做了一些優化，實際上很高興地說，這基本上沒有導致收入發生變化，但它確實推動了調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的大幅增長。因此，我們確實認為這應該是更持久的，但顯然，我們將密切注意發生的情況，並繼續進行相應的調整和測試。

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Jason Robins for any closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給賈森·羅賓斯，讓其結束語。

Great. Thank you all for joining us on today's call. We're looking forward to a really strong finish in 2024 and are really excited and optimistic about 2025 and beyond. Thank you for your continued support and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

偉大的。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待 2024 年取得非常強勁的成績，並對 2025 年及以後感到非常興奮和樂觀。感謝您一直以來的支持，我們期待很快能再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, let's include today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，讓我們包括今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。