Diageo PLC (DEO) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 美國市場去庫存已達正常水位,2026財年預期消費環境仍偏保守,管理層強調將聚焦品牌組合與商業執行力提升
    • 2026財年有機銷售成長指引與2025年相當,上半年較弱、下半年預期加速,EBIT 成長主要來自成本節省與商業效率提升
    • 近期完成多項資產處分,2026年營運利潤將因處分影響減少約1億美元,市場對於品牌組合調整與現金流管理持續關注
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 美國市場去庫存完成,品牌組合與商業執行力提升有望帶動成長
      • 歐洲市場聚焦本地化與消費場合導向,強化市場滲透與品牌相關性
      • RTD(即飲)產品與新口味創新,預期於2026年下半年加速成長
      • 重點品牌(如Don Julio、Guinness、Crown、Johnnie Walker)持續增長,並積極推動Astral等新品牌擴張
    • 風險:
      • 美國與中國消費環境持續保守,短期內需求復甦不確定
      • 中國市場高端產品需求疲弱,需調整產品組合以維持品牌力與毛利
      • 原物料(如龍舌蘭)成本雖有下降,但存貨成本遞延,短期內利潤改善有限
      • 資產處分帶來短期營運利潤下滑,需持續關注現金流與資本配置
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 美國市場:去庫存已達正常水位,2026年預期消費環境保守,聚焦品牌組合與商業執行
    • 歐洲市場:2025年烈酒表現承壓,2026年加大投資,強調本地化與場合導向策略
    • 中國市場:高端產品需求疲弱,調整產品組合以維持品牌力與毛利
    • RTD(即飲)產品:六大重點市場推動,預期2026年下半年加速成長
    • Guinness:持續雙位數成長,2026年下半年產能擴充有助進一步增長
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026財年有機銷售成長預估與2025年相當,上半年較弱、下半年加速
    • EBIT成長主要來自成本節省與商業效率提升,資產處分將使營運利潤減少約1億美元
    • 原物料(如龍舌蘭)成本下降效益將逐步反映,短期內存貨成本仍以過去價格為主
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 美國市場去庫存後,2026年出貨與消費端(depletions)如何看?歐洲市場加大投資後有何期待?
      A: 美國去庫存已完成,2026年消費環境仍保守,聚焦品牌組合與商業執行力提升。歐洲則強調本地化與場合導向,長期看好成長潛力。
    • Q: 2026年有機銷售成長指引上半年較弱、下半年加速,信心來源為何?資產處分與財務成本影響?
      A: 下半年成長動能來自商業執行、RTD創新與品牌組合優化。資產處分將使營運利潤減少約1億美元,財務成本將趨於正常,細節可後續補充。
    • Q: 中國市場需求疲弱,產品組合調整對毛利有何影響?EBIT成長除成本節省外還有何驅動?
      A: 中國高端需求疲弱,將調整產品組合以維持品牌力與毛利。EBIT成長除成本節省外,還包括A&P與商業投資效率提升。
    • Q: 美國市場路徑轉型(route-to-market)具體措施?未來有望成為新成長引擎的品牌?
      A: 美國增加銷售人員並強化訓練,聚焦商業執行與客戶關係。未來成長不只靠單一品牌,將多元推動主力品牌與新興品牌。
    • Q: 成本節省50%將再投資,主要方向?2026年行銷費用如何規劃?
      A: 再投資聚焦商業執行力(人員、訓練、數位化)與A&P效率提升,行銷費用總額預期下降但媒體投放與覆蓋率提升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Diageo's F '25 preliminary results Q&A conference call. Your call today will be hosted by Nik Jhangiani, Diageo's Interim Chief Executive. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加帝亞吉歐 F '25 初步業績問答電話會議。今天的電話會議將由帝亞吉歐臨時執行長 Nik Jhangiani 主持。(操作員指示)

  • Sonya, please go ahead.

    索尼婭,請繼續。

  • Sonya Ghobrial - Global Head of Investor Relations

    Sonya Ghobrial - Global Head of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Diageo Fiscal '25 Results Q&A. I'm Sonya Ghobrial, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by Nik Jhangiani, Interim Chief Executive. Just to remind listeners on the call that in discussions today, the company may make certain forward-looking statements, including those that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Please refer to this morning's release and the company's UK and US filings for more detail, including factors that could lead to actual results to materially differ from those expressed in or implied by any such forward-looking statements.

    大家早安,歡迎參加帝亞吉歐 25 財政年度業績問答會。我是投資人關係主管 Sonya Ghobrial,今天早上與我一起參加會議的還有臨時執行長 Nik Jhangiani。只是提醒電話中的聽眾,在今天的討論中,公司可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述,包括涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的陳述。請參閱今天早上發布的新聞稿以及該公司在英國和美國提交的文件以了解更多詳情,包括可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異的因素。

  • Hopefully, you've all seen in this morning's press release and presentation. For those listening to our webcast, who would like to ask a question, please use the dial-in details include in today's press release.

    希望大家都看到了今天早上的新聞稿和示範。對於那些收聽我們的網路廣播並想要提問的人,請使用今天的新聞稿中包含的撥入詳細資訊。

  • With that, I'll hand the call back to the operator for your questions.

    說完這些,我會將電話轉回給接線生,以便回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions) Sanjeet Aujla, UBS.

    (操作員說明)Sanjeet Aujla,UBS。

  • Sanjeet Aujla - Analyst

    Sanjeet Aujla - Analyst

  • A couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, on the US, Nik, are you able to give us a sense of how you're thinking about the depletions outlook? I appreciate you've called out a bit of caution at the start of fiscal '26, but I'd love to get your sense on how you're thinking about depletions there. And should we interpret the inventory message to imply shipments in line with depletions on a full year basis in the US?

    請問我幾個問題。首先,關於美國,尼克,您能否讓我們了解您對資源枯竭前景的看法?我很感激您在 26 財年伊始就提出了一些謹慎的建議,但我很想了解您對那裡的資源消耗是如何考慮的。我們是否應該將庫存資訊解讀為暗示美國全年的出貨量與消耗量一致?

  • And secondly, you're investing a lot behind Europe. The spirits part of the portfolio has been quite a bit under pressure in fiscal '25. What are you hoping for out of Europe in fiscal '26 as the investment step-up?

    其次,你們在歐洲投入了大量資金。2025財年,投資組合中的烈酒部分承受了相當大的壓力。隨著投資的增加,您對 26 財年歐洲有何期待?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Sanjeet. Great to be here today with all of you. On your first question, I mean, I think clearly, our focus in '25 was to get the inventory levels back to more normalized levels. And as you saw in Q3, clearly, there was a free tariff kind of buy-in, which we believe has largely been cycled through in Q4, but we will continue to look at that from an angle of how that might play out during Q1 as well, right? So -- but largely, we believe that has come through.

    謝謝,桑吉特。很高興今天能和大家在一起。關於您的第一個問題,我的意思是,我認為很明顯,我們在 25 年的重點是讓庫存水準恢復到更正常的水平。正如您在第三季度看到的那樣,顯然存在一種免費關稅類型的買入,我們認為這種買入在第四季度已經基本完成,但我們將繼續從第一季可能如何發揮作用的角度來看待這個問題,對嗎?所以 — — 但總體而言,我們相信這已經實現了。

  • Clearly, we were trying to manage to get back to more normalized stock levels, and I think we've achieved that. And the team feels good about where we are from both local as well as imports. Clearly, just putting it back into perspective, we are planning for a more cautious consumer environment in the US for fiscal '26 on the top line, but very much focused around how and where we can continue to outperform, but doing a broader strategy, sharpen and refresh across the group, truly look at how do we get a broader brand portfolio growth happening, both in the US and across the rest of the globe.

    顯然,我們正在努力恢復到更正常的庫存水平,我認為我們已經實現了這一目標。團隊對我們的本地和進口產品都感到滿意。顯然,從整體上看,我們計劃在 26 財年為美國消費者帶來更加謹慎的消費環境,但重點是如何以及在哪些方面我們可以繼續表現出色,同時制定更廣泛的戰略,在整個集團內進行銳化和更新,真正考慮如何在美國和全球其他地區實現更廣泛的品牌組合增長。

  • In some ways, that does also talk to your question on Europe, clearly, you're absolutely right. I think the spirit's market for us was in shopper decline than we would have liked to see. But I think we see that as an opportunity actually looking forward to better control some of the outcomes in Europe, right, by being a lot more locally focused and occasion-led. And I think that's the opportunity when we talk about kind of reorganizing ourselves to be able to capture that growth.

    從某種程度上來說,這也確實回答了你關於歐洲的問題,顯然,你是完全正確的。我認為,對我們來說,烈酒市場的購物者數量正在下降,這比我們所希望看到的要多。但我認為,我們認為這是一個機會,實際上希望透過更加關注當地情況和以場合為主導,更好地控制歐洲的一些結果。我認為,當我們談論重組自己以獲得這種成長時,這就是機會。

  • And I talked a little bit in my prepared remarks around the fact that Southern Europe, just using that as one example. The fact that we were managing four or five very unique, very different markets, and you all know from my prior experience, we had a lot of focus as we looked market by market, because the consumer dynamics and more importantly, even the customers and your route to market are quite different, right?

    我在準備好的發言中稍微談到了南歐的情況,僅以此為例。事實上,我們管理著四、五個非常獨特、非常不同的市場,而且從我以前的經驗中你們都知道,我們在逐個市場進行研究時非常專注,因為消費者動態,更重要的是,甚至客戶和進入市場的途徑都是完全不同的,對嗎?

  • So I think as we look at France, for instance, having taken that over and setting ourselves up and setting up a more competitive and market relevant route to market, working with our customers looking at that outlet segmentation that I've talked about, and that's one of the first markets where we're doing some really good work around that.

    因此,我認為,以法國為例,我們接手了這個市場,並建立了一條更具競爭力、更貼近市場的市場路線,與我們的客戶合作,研究我所談到的出口細分,這是我們在這方面做得非常好的首批市場之一。

  • To be able to look at unlocking those growth opportunities in spirits and not just in whiskey, for instance, France, which is a large whiskey market. Same thing in Italy or Spain, and I would say even in a market like Germany, combining Germany and Austria and Switzerland having a focus there allows us to really be a lot more consumer and customer-centric.

    能夠看到烈酒領域的成長機會,而不僅僅是威士忌,例如法國,它是一個巨大的威士忌市場。義大利和西班牙的情況也一樣,我想說,即使在德國這樣的市場,將德國、奧地利和瑞士結合起來,以這些國家為重點,可以讓我們真正更加以消費者和客戶為中心。

  • So I think that's what we're excited about that brings us that much closer to the markets. And hence, we feel that we will be able to then support growth. And it's not a one year focus, right? This is what we're looking at in terms of a longer-term trajectory as we look forward.

    所以我認為這就是讓我們更加接近市場並感到興奮的事情。因此,我們認為我們將能夠支持成長。這不是一年的重點,對嗎?這就是我們展望未來的長期軌跡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simon Hales, Citi.

    花旗銀行的西蒙‧黑爾斯 (Simon Hales)。

  • Simon Hales - Analyst

    Simon Hales - Analyst

  • Two from me as well, please, if I can. Firstly, I mean just building on some of the things you've just been saying, Nik. Can you just talk a little bit more about the moving parts in that fiscal 2026 organic sales guidance to be similar to 2025. On my math, given that you're suggesting it's probably down in the first half, it suggests an acceleration to somewhere around 4% or above in the second half of the year. I know you referenced in your prepared remarks, Nik, things like the timing and phasing of Chinese New Year, perhaps impacting the H1, H2 shift. But what gives you the confidence that you're really going to see that H2 acceleration come through?

    如果可以的話,我也請您提供兩份。首先,我的意思是基於你剛才所說的一些事情,尼克。您能否再多談 2026 財年有機銷售預期與 2025 年類似的變動部分。根據我的計算,鑑於您認為上半年經濟成長可能會下降,這意味著下半年經濟成長將加速至 4% 左右或以上。尼克,我知道您在準備好的演講中提到了諸如中國新年的時間和階段等因素,這些因素可能會影響 H1、H2 的轉變。但是是什麼讓您有信心您確實會看到 H2 加速實現呢?

  • And then secondly, can I ask about just some technical factors that maybe are impacting EBIT and earnings into 2026? On the EBIT side, you've clearly carried out a number of disposals in the year, which you flagged. I think you've disclosed that the deconsolidation of those probably is about a $50 million reduction in starting EBIT.

    其次,我可以問一些可能影響 2026 年息稅前利潤和收益的技術因素嗎?在息稅前利潤方面,您顯然在當年進行了一些處置,並對此進行了標記。我認為您已經透露過,這些業務的拆分可能會導致起始息稅前利潤減少約 5000 萬美元。

  • But since the year-end, you've also sold Ghana and the Seychelles breweries. How big an impact will that have from a scope standpoint? And then below the line on finance costs, I think you've capitalized some finance costs, I believe, for the first time in the P&L. Given that some of the projects related to those capitalized lines cuts are ongoing, how should we think about the size of that element in the finance line as we go into fiscal '26 and beyond?.

    但自年底以來,你們也出售了加納和塞席爾的啤酒廠。從範圍的角度來看,這會產生多大的影響?然後在財務成本線以下,我認為您已經在損益表中首次將一些財務成本資本化。鑑於與這些資本化項目削減相關的一些項目正在進行中,在進入 26 財年及以後,我們應該如何考慮財務項目中該要素的規模?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great. So let me tackle the first question. I mean I think, clearly, you rightfully called out what does the shape look like for half two and what gives us the confidence that. I think there's a couple of things that I would focus in on. And I would look at it from an angle of where we want to build more capability and where we want to really accelerate some of our work.

    偉大的。那麼就讓我來解答第一個問題。我的意思是,我認為,很明顯,你正確地指出了二分之一的形狀是什麼樣的,以及是什麼給了我們信心。我認為有幾件事值得我關注。我會從我們想要建立更多能力和真正加速某些工作的角度來看待這個問題。

  • And the areas that I would really call out are in three main buckets, right? Clearly, a lot of work that we kicked off on driving for much sharper commercial execution at point of sale, right? And I think that is critical in terms of allowing us to bring together really that great work we do with the brand and how do we bring it live and activate at the point of sale, be it off-trade, on-trade, and a lot of work that we're doing when we're looking at menu placements, back bar displays, but having very clear metrics and KPIs against which we can measure our progress.

    我真正要指出的領域主要分為三個部分,對嗎?顯然,我們已經進行了大量工作來推動銷售點的商業執行更加清晰,對嗎?我認為這至關重要,因為它使我們能夠整合我們為品牌所做的出色工作,以及如何在銷售點將其激活並激活,無論是場外交易、現場交易,還是我們在查看菜單位置、後台欄顯示時所做的大量工作,但擁有非常明確的指標和 KPI,我們可以據此衡量我們的進度。

  • And this would be a multiyear journey, but we feel the work that we're kicking off or have already kicked off in several markets should allow to help with that. The other piece I would call out is, you might recall we talked about priority markets on RTDs, right? And I think when we step back and look at Smirnoff, what we actually set up in what was a category 20 years ago and the fact that even with some reinvigoration and stuff that we're doing around the brand, the flavors, the portfolio offering, how we're looking at that piece in terms of the relevance to consumer occasions is what we'll try and accelerate.

    這將是一段多年的旅程,但我們認為我們在多個市場啟動或已經啟動的工作應該能夠對此有所幫助。我想說的另一點是,您可能還記得我們討論過 RTD 的優先市場,對嗎?我認為,當我們回顧斯米諾伏特加時,我們會發現我們在 20 年前的品牌類別中建立了什麼樣子,即使我們對品牌、口味、產品組合進行了一些重塑和改進,但我們會嘗試並加速如何從與消費者場合的相關性來看待這一產品。

  • And I think you'll see that in the first half, but really, that will ramp up in the second half. And then I would say the last piece is really the broader work we want to do on our portfolio, right? Clearly, we've had some really good performance in key brands and some of our global brands, be it on Julio, be it Guinness, be it what we've talked about with Crown and Johnnie Walker, even though the organic sales decline, we gained share, but I think there's more that we can do when we look at both the mainstream core and premium core, right? And we've got to be able to start driving that. I think when we look at the premiumization piece that's very much here to stay.

    我認為你會在上半年看到這一點,但實際上,下半年這一趨勢將會加劇。然後我想說最後一部分實際上是我們想要在我們的投資組合上做的更廣泛的工作,對嗎?顯然,我們在關鍵品牌和一些全球品牌上都取得了非常好的表現,無論是 Julio、Guinness,還是我們談到的 Crown 和 Johnnie Walker,儘管有機銷售額下降,但我們的市場份額有所增加,但我認為,當我們同時關注主流核心和高端核心時,我們還可以做更多的事情,對嗎?我們必須能夠開始推動這一點。我認為,當我們審視高端化時,這種趨勢將會持續下去。

  • How do we continue to build on the Johnnie Walker brand, for instance, and the price laddering and everything that we've done with blond as one example on one end of the spectrum and what we're doing all the way up to Blue Label involved.

    例如,我們如何繼續打造尊尼獲加品牌,以及價格階梯式行銷,以及我們在金色威士忌方面所做的一切,以及我們在藍牌威士忌方面所做的一切。

  • And I think the last piece I would really say is we've laid out a clear strategy on malls where we've got great liquid, winning brands, and we need to execute that at scale as well. So I think those are the three big pieces that I would call out that we feel good about as we look forward. And that's not just a half to '26. That's an ongoing piece of work that we'll be looking at.

    我認為最後要說的是,我們已經針對擁有大量流動性和成功品牌的購物中心製定了明確的策略,我們也需要大規模地執行這項策略。所以我認為這就是我們展望未來時感到高興的三大事項。這不僅僅是 26 年的一半。這是我們正在持續關注的一項工作。

  • From an angle of your technical factors, I think you rightly called out with what we have already exited as of the end of the year. That's about $50 million in operating profit. which had about $250 million in NSP. When you look at the deals that had not completed at year-end but have since completed, that's really Ghana and say shows that would have approximately another $50 million impact on operating profit for F '26 and about $350 million. But again, those would all be normalized when we look at scope and growth as we look forward.

    從技術因素的角度來看,我認為您正確地指出了我們截至年底已經退出的情況。這相當於約 5,000 萬美元的營業利潤,其中 NSP 約為 2.5 億美元。當你查看那些在年底尚未完成但後來完成的交易時,你會發現那實際上是加納的交易,並且表明這將對 F '26 的營業利潤產生約 5000 萬美元的影響,約為 3.5 億美元。但當我們展望未來並審視範圍和成長時,所有這些都將恢復正常。

  • In terms of finance costs, we'll come back to you with specific numbers, but remember, there was also an element of what was a bit of prior adjustment. So we would expect that to more normalize as we look at '26, and we can come back to you with some more specifics around that offline.

    在財務成本方面,我們會向您提供具體的數字,但請記住,其中也包含一些先前調整的因素。因此,我們希望在 26 年時這種情況會更加正常化,並且我們可以在線下向您提供有關該情況的更多具體細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Celine Pannuti, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Celine Pannuti。

  • Celine Pannuti - Analyst

    Celine Pannuti - Analyst

  • So my first question, Nik, is on the first half, you called the weakness organic. Can you give us a sense of where do you see that? Because obviously, you talked about your question about North America, but I wanted as well to understand how you look at Asia Pac. So China seems to have been quite weak and beyond Chinese New Year, trying to understand what's going on in the country as you pivot, I think your portfolio towards maybe less expensive. And what does that mean for margin in that division -- in that region that has been usually quite elevated?

    所以我的第一個問題是,尼克,關於上半部分,你稱之為有機弱點。您能告訴我們您在哪裡看到這一點嗎?因為很明顯,您談到了有關北美的問題,但我也想了解您如何看待亞太地區。因此,中國似乎一直相當疲軟,農曆新年之後,試圖了解該國正在發生的事情,我認為您的投資組合可能會變得更便宜。那麼,這對於該部門的利潤率(通常該部門的利潤率相當高)意味著什麼呢?

  • My second question is on the organic EBIT guide. So if I look at the savings, roughly speaking, I think that probably would contribute to half of the organic improvement above top line growth. So in an environment where top line is slightly positive. Can you talk about what are the other driver of that extra organic EBIT expansion. And I noted that gross margin was helped by a lower compensation in '25. If you could give us as well what it means for '26?

    我的第二個問題是關於有機息稅前利潤指南。因此,如果我看一下節省的情況,粗略地說,我認為這可能有助於實現營業收入成長之上的有機成長的一半。因此,在營收略微積極的環境下。您能否談談額外有機息稅前利潤擴張的其他驅動因素是什麼?我注意到,25 年較低的薪資有助於提高毛利率。您能否告訴我們『26』意味著什麼?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • So, I mean, I think if you look at the half one in terms of the guide, you're right, in terms of US, we clearly are planning for a more cautious environment. And I would say that's probably one that's through most of the year, but I would expect to see that more half year weighted because we've also got the lapping of some of the downhole restocking that happened in half one of '25.

    所以,我的意思是,我認為如果你從指南的角度來看待一半,你是對的,就美國而言,我們顯然正在為更謹慎的環境做計劃。我想說,這可能是全年大部分時間的情況,但我預計會看到更多的半年加權,因為我們也得到了 25 年上半年發生的一些井下補貨的情況。

  • And quite honestly, when you look at the Nielsen NAPCA data, as we look at the exit, you can see that the consumer environment and the consumer wallet is still stretched. But the team is doing a lot of work to really look at how do we reinvigorate some of the other brands and some of the stuff that I just talked about.

    坦白說,當您查看尼爾森 NAPCA 數據時,當我們查看出口時,您會發現消費環境和消費者錢包仍然緊張。但團隊正在做大量工作,真正研究如何重振其他一些品牌以及我剛才談到的一些內容。

  • The early signs in terms of the route-to-market changes that we're making in North America are really starting to pay dividends. We're getting very positive feedback where we've implemented this with well-trained feet on the street, both in the distributor and our level in terms of what they're able to drive with customers to improve portfolio mix offerings and ultimately drive their margins and as a result, us as well, right? I think there's a strong focus on wanting to continue being that customer of choice with our retailers.

    我們在北美進行的市場路線變革的早期跡象確實開始帶來回報。我們得到了非常積極的回饋,我們已經在經銷商和我們自己層面上透過訓練有素的實際行動實施了這一計劃,他們能夠推動客戶改善產品組合,最終提高他們的利潤率,從而也提高我們的利潤率,對嗎?我認為我們非常希望繼續成為零售商的首選客戶。

  • I think RTDs, I talked about where, clearly, the US would be one of those six priority markets, which is an opportunity as well. Pivoting on to then your question around China, Clearly, outside of Chinese New Year timing, the market has been more challenged.

    我認為 RTD,我談到了,美國顯然是這六個優先市場之一,這也是一個機會。回到你關於中國的問題,顯然,除了農曆新年之外,市場面臨的挑戰更大。

  • But again, I look at that market and having visited late last year and having spent time with the team, again, in March in Southeast Asia, where we were getting some good data points of what was happening. I think the team is doing a lot in terms of looking to your point around, are there different parts of the portfolio that are important from an angle of being able to still have relevance for our brands in the right packs and ensure that the brand equity stay, and we know that people will come back and that premiumization journey, particularly in a market like China is very much intact.

    但是,我再次關注了那個市場,並在去年年底訪問過該市場,並在三月份與團隊一起在東南亞度過了一段時間,我們在那裡獲得了一些關於正在發生的事情的良好數據點。我認為團隊正在做很多工作來思考您的觀點,從能夠透過正確的包裝仍然與我們的品牌保持相關性並確保品牌資產保持的角度來看,產品組合中是否存在重要部分,我們知道人們會回來,高端化之旅,特別是在中國這樣的市場中,非常完整。

  • But at the same time, there's an opportunity as we look at a broader range of products that we can sell as well. So I think clearly cautious, but we are doing the right things in China, but I think across APAC as well. You probably look to China and seen some of the big -- numbers. We do hope that, that will start improving depending on how the government continues to look at some of the restrictions that they put in place towards the second half of the year, so more to come on that.

    但同時,當我們著眼於可以銷售的更廣泛的產品範圍時,也存在著機會。因此我認為我們顯然是謹慎的,但我們在中國所做的事情是正確的,而且我認為在整個亞太地區也是如此。您可能關注中國並看到了一些巨大的數字。我們確實希望,這種情況會開始改善,這取決於政府如何繼續審視他們在下半年實施的一些限制措施,因此未來還會有更多相關消息。

  • In regards to your EBIT question, clearly, the savings are what is the main drivers of growth. And the big area that we're continuing to unlock is twofold. I would say on the trade investment and A&P spend, we are already seeing some early opportunities of how we can better rationalize for investment, but returns-driven investment, right? And so both on the customer A&P and the trade investment side, that's a positive.

    關於您的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 問題,顯然,儲蓄是成長的主要動力。我們正在繼續探索的重大領域有兩個。我想說,在貿易投資和廣告與宣傳支出方面,我們已經看到了一些早期機會,關於如何更好地合理化投資,但投資是以回報為導向的,對嗎?因此,無論從客戶 A&P 還是貿易投資方面來說,這都是積極的。

  • Then I would say we continue to focus on the absolute dollars of spend on the development on nonworking dollars, and the team has been doing a phenomenal job, and we're moving at pace with what we can do to really replicate some of the work that we've already done in '25 and where those costs get captured, right?

    然後我想說,我們將繼續關注非工作資金開發上的絕對支出,團隊一直在做著非凡的工作,我們正在按照我們可以做的步伐前進,以真正複製我們在 25 年已經完成的一些工作,以及這些成本是如何被捕獲的,對嗎?

  • Because quite honestly, we're doing this well with our conscious create teams, our Agile brand communities really leveraging the virtual content studio, there should be very little that we should have to be incurring at the market level, right?

    因為說實話,我們與有意識的創作團隊一起做得很好,我們的敏捷品牌社群真正利用了虛擬內容工作室,我們在市場層面上應該很少需要承擔什麼,對嗎?

  • So those are all benefits and part of that will go back into supporting media scale and reach. But there will be a fall through to the bottom line. I think I called out in my prepared remarks that we had already initiated some actions around North America corporate and some of the markets in APAC in the -- in Q4 of '25, which obviously will then start getting us benefits in the second half of '26 as well, and that's a positive move. So we feel good about being able to deliver against that EBIT guide that we provided, both from where we see organic growth opportunities, but from the savings as well.

    這些都是好處,其中一部分將用於支持媒體規模和影響力。但最終還是會跌到底線。我想我在準備好的發言中提到過,我們在 2025 年第四季就已經針對北美企業和亞太地區的部分市場採取了一些行動,這顯然也會在 2026 年下半年開始給我們帶來好處,這是一個積極的舉措。因此,我們很高興能夠實現我們提供的息稅前利潤指南,這不僅體現在我們看到的有機成長機會上,也體現在節省上。

  • On COGS inflation, -- I think we're seeing low single-digit underlying COGS inflation. But remember, this comes back again to where the team within supply has done a very good job continuing to look at productivity to be able to offset that, and we'll continue to have that everyday productivity mindset as we look forward.

    關於 COGS 通膨——我認為我們看到的是低個位數的潛在 COGS 通膨。但請記住,這又回到了供應團隊在繼續專注於生產力以抵消這一問題方面做得非常出色這一問題上,展望未來,我們將繼續保持這種日常生產力思維。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America.

    安德里亞·皮斯塔基,美國銀行。

  • Andrea Pistacchi - Analyst

    Andrea Pistacchi - Analyst

  • So two questions, please. First one is on FX, please. Could you give a bit more color? You said you've made some changes to how you're hedging currency. Could you give a little bit more color on that? And on the $60 million impact on EBIT that you anticipate for this year, could you say how much of that is translation versus transaction, please?

    請問有兩個問題。第一個是關於 FX 的。你能給出更多一些顏色嗎?您說過您對貨幣對沖方式做了一些改變。您能對此做更詳細的說明嗎?您預計今年息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 將受到 6,000 萬美元的影響,您能否說明其中有多少是翻譯費用,有多少是交易費用?

  • And then I have a specific question on a brand, please, which is Astral in the US. You're talking about wanting to broaden growth to more brands in the US. And in the press release, I think you called out specifically Astral as a tequila brand growing very strongly in the super premium price segment.

    然後我想問一個關於品牌的具體問題,它是美國的 Astral。您說的是希望擴大美國更多品牌的成長。在新聞稿中,我認為您特別提到了 Astral 是一個在超高端價格領域成長非常強勁的龍舌蘭酒品牌。

  • So how much of a focus is this brand for you? Could you see it becoming really scaling up, becoming, say, a 1 million case brand. Would it be a slow burn? Or do you think it could be quite fast?

    那麼您對這個品牌的關注程度如何?您是否認為它能夠真正擴大規模,成為銷售 100 萬箱的品牌?這會是一場緩慢的燃燒嗎?或者您認為它會非常快嗎?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • On the hedging policy, we've done a lot of work with our treasury team on a twofold piece, I would say. One was really looking at how can we extend the coverage duration and align the hedge targets more closely with the operating profit exposure, right? And I think over time, this should really help reduce that volatility.

    關於對沖政策,我想說,我們與財務團隊在雙重方面做了很多工作。一個是真正研究如何延長覆蓋期限並使對沖目標與營業利潤風險更加緊密地結合起來,對嗎?我認為隨著時間的推移,這確實有助於減少這種波動。

  • When you look at it in terms of what does that actually mean practically, we're looking at both hedged or unhedged transaction exchange exposure and what we would like to hedge but not in isolation with where we see the unhedged translation exposure, which we don't go out to cover, but we were almost in some ways over hedging and then having the impact from the translation piece and netting that out allows us to have a much more effective hedging approach and less volatility, as I said.

    當你從實際意義的角度來看待它時,我們正在考慮對沖或未對沖的交易匯率風險,以及我們想要對沖的內容,但不是孤立地看待未對沖的翻譯風險,我們不會去彌補,但在某種程度上,我們幾乎過度對沖,然後受到翻譯部分的影響,並將其抵消,使我們能夠採取更有效的對沖方法,減少波動,正如我所說的那樣波動。

  • So that's what we will be doing, and you'll continue to share more on that. So the $16 million impact is how much is really the translation piece based on what we see today from an angle of the current spot rates. But we can give you more detail on that as those continue to move. But clearly, we'll come back on that.

    這就是我們要做的,你們將繼續分享更多相關內容。因此,根據我們今天從當前現貨匯率的角度來看,1600 萬美元的影響實際上是翻譯部分造成的。但隨著事態的繼續發展,我們可以為您提供更多詳細資訊。但顯然,我們會再討論這個問題。

  • You rightfully called out a trial in the US because I think while we've done a really good job in trying to now reset cost of (technical difficulty) --. It's still at very early days when you look at the element of, yes, it's come into the Dedicated division, but getting the pricing ladder and positioning right relative to Don Julio and ensuring that we've got the right outlets and in solid segmentation in terms of where Casamigos rightfully has the opportunity to win is now what we're going to be leveraging going forward. And we've got a new advertising campaign, which I think is really exciting.

    你正確地呼籲在美國進行審判,因為我認為,雖然我們在嘗試重新設定成本方面做得很好,(技術難度)--。從各個方面來看,現在還處於非常早期的階段,是的,它已經進入了專用部門,但相對於 Don Julio,獲得正確的定價階梯和定位,並確保我們擁有正確的銷售網點和穩固的細分市場,Casamigos 才有機會獲勝,這是我們未來要利用的優勢。我們開展了一項新的廣告活動,我認為這非常令人興奮。

  • We just launched in a few states, the RTDs under the Casamigos brand, which is going to have a great halo effect on the brand, and that's going to go nationwide. But again, remember, these are more still when you look at it, at the super premium plus or actually even above in terms of price points.

    我們剛剛在幾個州推出了 Casamigos 品牌下的 RTD,這將對品牌產生巨大的光環效應,並將在全國範圍內推廣。但再次請記住,從價格角度來看,這些產品仍然屬於超級高端產品,甚至更高。

  • Astral has a great role to play in being able to address that super premium where a lot of the other brands are playing and quite honestly, I think now having gotten Don Julio and Casamigos right, and we want to get those back in growth. We have a huge opportunity to start winning with that trial, which again is great tasting liquid -- right? And I actually would say to you, it's an approach that we're taking beyond North America only, where clearly, I think Astral will play a critical role when we look at expansion into the global markets with a clear strategy, not just on winning with Don Julio and Casamigos, but how do we win with Astral as well.

    Astral 在解決許多其他品牌所面臨的超高端市場方面發揮著重要作用,坦白說,我認為現在我們已經成功獲得了 Don Julio 和 Casamigos 的支持,我們希望讓它們恢復成長。我們有巨大的機會透過這次試驗贏得勝利,這又是一種味道很好的液體——對嗎?實際上我想告訴你,這是我們在北美以外採取的一種方法,顯然,我認為當我們考慮以明確的策略擴張到全球市場時,Astral 將發揮關鍵作用,不僅要與 Don Julio 和 Casamigos 一起取勝,還要與 Astral 一起取勝。

  • So you're looking at now the three price segments that we can actually effectively play around. Will it be a slow burn or a fast build, I'd like to believe it's going to be a fast build that we're going to be working in on. And I think the team is working at speed in the US, and we're clarifying the position for the rest of world as well and where can Astral truly play.

    所以您現在看到的是我們可以有效操作的三個價格區間。這將是緩慢的燃燒還是快速的構建,我相信這將是我們將要進行的快速構建。我認為團隊正在美國快速發展,我們也在明確世界其他地區的地位以及 Astral 真正能夠發揮作用的地方。

  • And I think it is the preferred brand for the most part that we will go with. We do have some other brands as well. Remember, we've got delay on. We've just broken 1707, so I think we're making sure that we've got the right positioning and the right brand equities and strengths that we want to build on across the market.

    我認為這是我們大多數人會選擇的品牌。我們也有一些其他品牌。請記住,我們已經延遲了。我們剛剛突破了 1707,所以我認為我們正在確保我們擁有正確的定位以及我們希望在整個市場上建立的正確的品牌資產和優勢。

  • And clearly, we have the liquid and the capacity to be able to do that. So clearly, tequila is a big part of our global strategy. And I think the team has been doing a phenomenal job trying to unlock value and grow that.

    顯然,我們有足夠的資金和能力來做到這一點。顯然,龍舌蘭酒是我們全球策略的重要組成部分。我認為團隊在釋放價值和增加價值方面做了出色的工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Trevor Stirling, Bernstein.

    特雷弗·斯特林,伯恩斯坦。

  • Trevor Stirling - Analyst

    Trevor Stirling - Analyst

  • Two questions, please, Nik. First one, just going back to the US and your route-to-market transformation in the US Could you just perhaps give us a little bit more color about what changes actually are you making on the ground? Is it extra feet on the street? Or is it the same people doing different things?

    請問兩個問題,尼克。首先,回到美國以及你們在美國市場路線的轉變,能否給我們稍微詳細介紹一下你們實際上在進行哪些改變?是街上多餘的人嗎?還是同一個人在做不同的事情?

  • And second question, perhaps longer term, Nik, if we look back in a couple of years' time, what do you think will be the next big global brand or brand that really significant contribution to growth. We have Don Julio, we have Guinness doing incredibly well at the moment. What do you think will be the third big brand that we're looking forward?.

    第二個問題,也許從更長遠的角度來看,尼克,如果我們回顧幾年後,您認為下一個全球大品牌或對成長做出真正重大貢獻的品牌是什麼。我們有 Don Julio,我們有 Guinness,目前表現非常好。您認為我們期待的第三大品牌是什麼?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Trevor. So what does it really mean in terms of the change in terms of the US route to market. I think a couple of things. Clearly, this is about incremental feet on the street, both from our distributor partners as well as ourselves. But not being -- clear on what the role of those salespeople and extra feet on the street is, is what's critically important. And I think that's what we're changing, right?

    謝謝,特雷弗。那麼,就美國市場路線的改變而言,這究竟意味著什麼呢?我想到幾件事。顯然,這與我們的經銷商合作夥伴以及我們自己在街上的逐步擴張有關。但至關重要的是,不清楚這些銷售人員和街頭臨時工的角色是什麼。我認為這就是我們正在改變的,對嗎?

  • So it's about having a much more focused model where I think we're really leading the industry in terms of both incremental to my point, but upscale resources to drive and help our partners drive sharper execution. We want to build those customer relationships that allow us to help them grow their business and as a result of them growing their business, us growing our business but then being seen as that partner of choice, right?

    因此,我們需要建立一個更專注的模型,我認為我們在增量和高端資源方面都處於行業領先地位,以推動和幫助我們的合作夥伴實現更精準的執行。我們希望建立這樣的客戶關係,以便我們能夠幫助他們發展業務,並且由於他們的業務成長,我們也發展自己的業務,然後被視為首選合作夥伴,對嗎?

  • So I think it's both number of people, but what do they actually do to be able to drive incremental value for our customers and ourselves as opposed to order taking, right? So being very mundane around that piece. So what are we practically doing? Well, we've got an academy for beverage leadership, right, where we're actually training resources in terms of how do you actually sell and upsell and help your partners, how do you bring them things that they might not have thought about, whether it's new brands, whether it's pack, whether it's formats that can help when we look at the type of CCF work that we do and understand the occasions that outlet is serving, what kind of brands and portfolios should be relevant and how they can actually help position and sell those, whether it's front of store, whether it's gondola and aisles, whether it's around in bars, menus, displays, et cetera.

    所以我認為這既是人數的問題,但除了接受訂單之外,他們實際上做了什麼才能為我們的客戶和我們自己帶來增量價值呢?對嗎?因此,這件作品非常平凡。那我們實際上在做什麼呢?嗯,我們有一個飲料領導學院,對吧,我們實際上在那裡培訓資源,教你如何實際銷售和追加銷售,如何幫助你的合作夥伴,如何給他們帶來他們可能沒有想到的東西,無論是新品牌,無論是包裝,無論是當我們查看我們所做的 CCF工作類型並了解門市服務的場合時可以提供幫助的格式,什麼樣的品牌和產品組合應該是相關的,以及它們如何真正幫助定位和銷售這些產品,無論是商店前面,無論是貨架和過道,無論是在酒吧、菜單、展示等等。

  • So it's really helping them being able to uplift their performance. And I think we're doing it in a very targeted way where we see the upside when we look at the outlet universe and where is the largest value pool that we want to go after first.

    所以這確實有助於他們提高表現。我認為我們正在以一種非常有針對性的方式進行,當我們看到出口領域時,我們會看到好處,並且我們首先想要追求的最大價值池在哪裡。

  • So I think we're committed to building these capabilities nationally. And maintaining that leadership. And this is going to be great as we look at this, not just in North America, but that's what drives my focus that I talked about in terms of how do we truly drive commercial excellence and execution at the point of sale.

    所以我認為我們致力於在全國範圍內建立這些能力。並保持這種領導地位。從我們的角度來看,這將是一件很棒的事情,不僅僅是在北美,這也是我關注的重點,即我們如何真正推動銷售點的商業卓越和執行。

  • To your question around what's the next big global brand, I do believe it's not just one more, hey, I'd like to believe there's a lot more that we can do. And I think that's -- I'd like to come back with in the next months as we work on sharpening that strategy that I think can really help us look at in an evolving TBA landscape.

    對於您關於下一個全球大品牌是什麼的問題,我確實相信它不僅僅是一個,嘿,我願意相信我們還可以做更多。我認為——我希望在接下來的幾個月裡再次提出這項策略,因為我們將致力於完善這項策略,我認為這可以真正幫助我們審視不斷變化的 TBA 格局。

  • How do we actually appeal and drive for more occasions and more consumers wanting to buy our brands. And we've got an amazing portfolio when you look across all of the categories in which we play, I just don't think we've necessarily been a deliberate stepping back and looking at it from an angle of selective plays on mainstream, our premium core as well as what we can do on a premiumization journey with Johnnie Walker with Malts. We've got an amazing portfolio of Malts, and we've got a very clear strategy now around what plays globally and what plays really strong regionally.

    我們如何才能真正吸引和推動更多場合和更多消費者購買我們的品牌?當你審視我們所涉足的所有類別時,你會發現我們擁有令人驚嘆的產品組合,我只是不認為我們會刻意後退,而是從選擇性地涉足主流、我們的高端核心以及我們在尊尼獲加麥芽威士忌的高端化之旅中可以做些什麼的角度來看待它。我們擁有令人驚嘆的麥芽酒產品組合,我們目前已經制定了非常明確的策略,明確了哪些產品在全球具有市場競爭力,哪些產品在地區市場具有強勁競爭力。

  • And then I talked about tequila right now with that last question from Andrea. So I think we feel excited about a number of vectors as opposed to one single brand that I'd like to see as the next big one outside of Don Julio and Guinness. But more to come on that, Trevor, as we go forward.

    然後我現在和安德里亞談論龍舌蘭酒的最後一個問題。因此,我認為我們對一系列載體感到興奮,而不是對單一品牌感到興奮,我希望看到這個品牌成為 Don Julio 和 Guinness 之外的下一個大品牌。但特雷弗,隨著我們繼續前進,我們會有更多內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edward Mundy, Jefferies.

    愛德華蒙迪,傑富瑞集團。

  • Edward Mundy - Analyst

    Edward Mundy - Analyst

  • I think one of the things that's come through quite clearly, both in the presentation and also in the Q&A today is the sort of desire to broaden growth opportunities beyond Guinness, Don Julio, Crown and some of those big successes as you reinvigorate growth and leverage the full breadth of the portfolio, I'd be interested in sort of philosophically, what's really going to drive that? Is it going to be the reprioritization of A&P to provide more oxygen to a broader range of brands? Or is it really execution-driven, moving the goalpost to really drive that deliberate portfolio strategy? So that's my first question.

    我認為,在今天的演示和問答環節中,有一點非常明確,那就是希望在重振增長、充分利用投資組合的同時,拓展吉尼斯、唐胡里奧、皇冠等一些巨大成功品牌之外的增長機會。我感興趣的是,從哲學角度上講,真正推動這項進程的原因是什麼?這是否會重新調整 A&P 的優先順序,為更廣泛的品牌提供更多的支援?或者它真的是由執行驅動的,透過改變目標來真正推動深思熟慮的投資組合策略?這是我的第一個問題。

  • And then my second question is on the US specifically. I think in the presentation, you talked about looking to drive more balanced growth. Is that balanced growth across both of the portfolio, but also balanced growth across volumes, price and also mix.

    我的第二個問題具體是關於美國的。我認為在演講中您談到了尋求推動更加均衡的成長。這是產品組合的均衡成長,也是產量、價格和產品組合的均衡成長。

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great. Thanks for the question. So I think from an angle of broadened the growth opportunities, I think, clearly, we're a consumer goods company, right? And I think supporting our brands in the right way with a good focus around both returns but sufficiency of investment is critically important as well, right? And I think all the work that we're doing on the customer A&P and particularly the nonworking will actually give us more oxygen to invest in the media scale and reach piece with appropriate returns to be able to get that breadth of portfolio effectively covered.

    偉大的。謝謝你的提問。因此,我認為從拓寬成長機會的角度來看,顯然我們是一家消費品公司,對嗎?我認為以正確的方式支持我們的品牌,注重回報和投資充足性也至關重要,對嗎?我認為,我們在客戶 A&P 以及非工作方面所做的所有工作實際上將為我們提供更多機會來投資媒體規模並獲得適當的回報,從而能夠有效地覆蓋廣泛的投資組合。

  • And this is not going to be a single year journey, right? This is going to be a multiyear journey. But I think it starts up with really understanding back to that consumer, back to that occasion, where the value pools are and how do we then ensure that we've got the right resources backing where the growth opportunities are but at the same time, also looking for future growth opportunities, right? So I think we've got to get that balance right.

    這不會是一趟為期一年的旅程,對吧?這將是一段多年的旅程。但我認為這首先要真正了解消費者,了解場合,了解價值池在哪裡,以及我們如何確保在成長機會所在的地方獲得正確的資源支持,但同時還要尋找未來的成長機會,對嗎?所以我認為我們必須取得正確的平衡。

  • Having said that, I don't think you do one without the other, right? So I think we could do that great. But if we don't have a clear execution focus, Well, again, we'll be doing great stuff on brand building, but it never comes through at the point of sale. And vice versa, if we're doing great stuff only on execution without having the right support from that through the line piece. I very much see this going together.

    話雖如此,我認為你不能只做一件事而不做另一件事,對嗎?所以我認為我們可以做得很好。但如果我們沒有明確的執行重點,那麼,我們會在品牌建立方面做得很好,但它永遠不會在銷售點實現。反之亦然,如果我們只在執行上做得很好,而沒有透過線路部分提供正確的支援。我非常希望看到這一切能夠順利進行。

  • And I think that's what is the great opportunity as we look forward for a number of years to come around that through the line sufficiency across the brands, the building, the availability and the execution with excellence.

    我認為這是一個絕佳的機會,我們期待在未來幾年內透過跨品牌的生產線充足性、建築、可用性和卓越的執行來實現這一目標。

  • So I truly see that as something that would be a big unlock as we look forward the years to come. And I think the team is excited and invigorated by that, not just in the US but globally as well. And I think the US has already started doing that with some of the examples that I talked about in terms of the route-to-market changes.

    因此,我確實認為,對於我們未來幾年的展望來說,這將是一個重大的突破。我認為整個團隊都對此感到興奮和振奮,不僅在美國,而且在全球範圍內都是如此。我認為美國已經開始這樣做了,我之前談到的一些例子就是關於市場途徑變化的。

  • In terms of the US and getting back to growth from a portfolio perspective and also balanced around the volume price mix. Listen, ideally, I would like to see both, okay? I am also very conscious that we are in a more challenged consumer environment, and that's what we planned for '26. So without being able give you specifics around that, is that our focus and goal as we look forward?

    就美國而言,從投資組合角度來看,恢復成長,並在量價組合方面實現平衡。聽著,理想情況下,我希望看到兩者,可以嗎?我也非常清楚,我們正處於一個更具挑戰性的消費環境中,這就是我們為26年制定的計畫。因此,在無法向您提供具體細節的情況下,這是我們未來的重點和目標嗎?

  • Absolutely. We see volume growth for days. Now whether that's with RGDs, more that we can do with Guinness, more that we can do when we actually look at our premium core and some of our mainstream brands that we can leverage and be able to get that volume growth I think, yes, that will come through.

    絕對地。我們看到交易量連續幾天都在增加。現在,無論是透過 RGD,還是透過 Guinness,我們都可以做更多的事情,當我們真正專注於我們的高端核心和一些我們可以利用的主流品牌時,我們可以做更多的事情,並且能夠實現銷售成長,我認為,是的,這將會實現。

  • But that's probably more '27 and beyond. But I also think we should look at it from an angle of -- I mean, you probably heard me talk about this or us talk about that -- right? I think beyond volume in the US, we also have to start looking at transactions and how, particularly with smaller formats, if we're getting consumers into our brand equities or keeping them there.

    但這可能更多的是 27 年及以後的事。但我也認為我們應該從某個角度來看待這個問題——我的意思是,你可能聽過我談論這個或我們談論那個——對吧?我認為,除了美國的銷售量之外,我們還必須開始關注交易量,特別是對於較小的形式,我們如何讓消費者接受我們的品牌資產或讓他們留在那裡。

  • Over time, as a consumer wallet becomes less stressed, we would expect them to continue, obviously, being able to be with our brands and hopefully, upsize as we look forward as well. So I think in the developed markets as well, we've got to have a focus not just on volume, but on transactions as well. Beyond that, across our other markets, I mean, clearly, you're going to have Africa, LAC, India, some of our other Asian markets be able to drive volume growth.

    隨著時間的推移,隨著消費者錢包的壓力逐漸減輕,我們預計他們顯然能夠繼續購買我們的品牌,並且希望在未來也能擴大規模。因此我認為在已開發市場中我們也不應該只關注交易量,還應該關注交易量。除此之外,在我們的其他市場中,我的意思是,顯然,非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地區、印度以及我們的其他一些亞洲市場將能夠推動銷售成長。

  • And I think that came through well when you even look at our '25 results from an angle that, yes, volume was more challenged in some of our developed markets or when we look at China, et cetera, but we did get a good balance overall between our volume and price mix, and we'd like to continue to see that coming through as we look forward.

    我認為,如果你從某個角度來看待我們 25 年的業績,你會發現這一點很好,是的,在我們的一些發達市場或中國等地,銷量面臨著更大的挑戰,但總體而言,我們的銷量和價格組合之間確實取得了良好的平衡,我們希望在未來繼續看到這種情況的發生。

  • And I think one other thing I would call out in the smaller formats, while we're driving share in the US I still believe we don't have our fair share. So that's a big opportunity. And that's why my focus around not just volume but transactions as well.

    我認為在較小規模的市場中我要指出的另一件事是,雖然我們在美國推動了市場份額的成長,但我仍然認為我們沒有獲得應有的份額。所以這是一個很大的機會。這就是為什麼我不僅關注交易量,還關注交易量。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mitch Collett, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的米奇·科萊特。

  • Mitch Collett - Analyst

    Mitch Collett - Analyst

  • In the release, you talked about some of the initiatives you are beginning to use to reaccelerate growth. And I'd be really interested to hear how those initiatives tally with your thoughts on some of the potential structural headwinds within the sector. I know you talked a bit about RTD, but I guess I'm particularly interested in moderation and how you see that trend as an opportunity.

    在新聞稿中,您談到了為重新加速成長而開始採取的一些舉措。我非常有興趣聽聽這些舉措與您對於該行業內一些潛在結構性阻力的看法如何相符。我知道您談了一些關於 RTD 的事情,但我想我特別感興趣的是適度以及您如何將這種趨勢視為一個機會。

  • And then my second question, you have given 50% of the cost savings are going to be reinvested. Can you just give us some color on where that reinvestment will be focused. And if possible, how should we think about marketing in fiscal '26 either in absolute terms or as a percentage of sales?

    我的第二個問題是,您說節省下來的 50% 將會被重新投資。您能否向我們介紹再投資的重點?如果可能的話,我們應該如何從絕對值或銷售額百分比來考慮 26 財年的行銷?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Mitch. I mean, I think you and I actually guys talk about this a little bit when I was in Paris. So moderation has been around for a number of years. So it's not something new. But I think as you rightfully called out, we are stepping back and looking at this from an angle of -- we clearly do see today's pressure as being largely more macro and cyclical.

    偉大的。謝謝,米奇。我的意思是,我想當我在巴黎時,你們和我實際上談論過這個問題。因此,節制已經存在很多年了。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。但我認為,正如您正確指出的那樣,我們正在退一步,從一個角度來看待這個問題——我們清楚地看到,今天的壓力主要是宏觀和週期性的。

  • Having said that, we also do believe moderation in some form is here to stay, right? And moderation, as you and I talked about before, does mean different things to different people, whether it's about drinking less on weekdays, whether it's about Zebra striping, whether it's about going for different formats and options that allow them to manage portion control. And I think that's what we've got to tap into more.

    話雖如此,我們也確實相信某種形式的適度將會繼續存在,對嗎?正如你我之前談到的,適度對不同的人來說意味著不同的事情,無論是在工作日少喝酒,還是像斑馬一樣喝酒,還是選擇不同的形式和選擇來控制份量。我認為這就是我們必須進一步挖掘的。

  • Today, we're in a very fortunate position that we have a portfolio of non-out brands, obviously led by Guinness 0.0 that is allowing us to win, but obviously, it's a small base, right? And I think we have the ability with the incredible brands and the power of our innovation team to be able to develop more opportunities, not just in our RTD's, I'll come back to that in a moment, but also what we can do with not just no ABV, but low ABB. And it was interesting because I challenged my own thinking in the last months when I was thinking, well, why do we need to have low ABV when we've got full ABV and 0 ABV and someone can mix it up.

    今天,我們非常幸運,我們擁有一系列非出局品牌,顯然以 Guinness 0.0 為首,這讓我們獲得了勝利,但顯然,這是一個很小的基數,對嗎?我認為,憑藉令人難以置信的品牌和創新團隊的力量,我們有能力開發更多的機會,不僅僅是在我們的 RTD 中,我稍後會再談到這一點,而且我們不僅可以做到無 ABV,還可以做到低 ABB。這很有趣,因為在過去的幾個月裡,我挑戰了自己的想法,當時我在想,既然我們已經有滿 ABV 和 0 ABV,為什麼我們需要低 ABV,有人可以將它們混合在一起。

  • And one of my region presidents shared a really good example of when he was out in the market and saw a lady picked up a bottle of Tanqueray 0.0 and a bottle of Tanqueray. And he went up and asked her around why was she buying both?

    我的一位地區總裁分享了一個很好的例子,有一次他在市場上看到一位女士拿起一瓶 Tanqueray 0.0 和一瓶 Tanqueray。他走上前去問她為什麼要買這兩樣東西?

  • N ow it's quite interesting because when you do look at consumers and shoppers, those who are buying 0.0 or 0 alcohol are also typically bind full spirit because they want to have that choice. She had a really interesting angle and take that said I want to have my gin and tonic and I want to get the same flavor. And if I just put more Tonic into Tanqueray and diluted, will I lose some of that flavor by actually mixing and doing equal parts of Tanqueray 0.0 and Tanqueray kind of full ABV, I actually get that taste and flavor profile coming through without the over reliance or over taste of the tonnage coming through.

    現在這很有趣,因為當你觀察消費者和購物者時,那些購買 0.0 或 0 酒精的人通常也會購買滿杯烈酒,因為他們想要有這種選擇。她有一個非常有趣的角度,並說我想要我的杜松子酒和奎寧水,我想要得到同樣的味道。如果我只是將更多的湯力水放入 Tanqueray 中並稀釋,那麼通過實際混合並添加等量的 Tanqueray 0.0 和 Tanqueray 那種全 ABV,我實際上可以獲得那種味道和風味特徵,而不會過度依賴或過量品嚐噸位。

  • And that I think was really interesting, but I challenge my own mindset saying, well, then low ABV does have an option, right, or an opportunity to play. And we've got a great innovation team that can help build that out for us, right? And RTDs is a great example of where you can actually manage ABV, calories where that people might be looking for.

    我認為這真的很有趣,但我挑戰自己的思維定式說,那麼低 ABV 確實有一個選擇,對吧,或者一個發揮作用的機會。我們擁有一支優秀的創新團隊,可以幫助我們實現這一目標,對嗎?RTD 是一個很好的例子,它能真正管理人們可能想要的 ABV 和卡路里。

  • So I think there's a lot more for us to go after to really look at that as an opportunity. And in my mind, there's no regrets in me, right? Because it's not saying that we're not going to be focused on our core portfolio and a broader portfolio.

    因此我認為我們還有很多事情要做,才能真正將其視為一個機會。而我心裡卻沒有一絲遺憾,對吧?因為這並不是說我們不會專注於我們的核心投資組合和更廣泛的投資組合。

  • It's not like we don't believe that premiumization is here to stay and we can still leverage that, and we've got a great portfolio and brands to be able to do that. It's about here's another vector of growth that we can tap into because that is a theme, right, of how people are thinking about how, where and when they want to consume, right? So I think that's what excites us about that piece.

    這並不意味著我們不相信高端化將會持續下去,我們仍然可以利用這一點,而且我們擁有優秀的產品組合和品牌來做到這一點。這是我們可以利用的另一個成長向量,因為這是一個主題,對吧,關於人們如何思考他們想要如何、在哪裡以及何時消費,對吧?所以我認為這就是這件作品令我們興奮的地方。

  • To your question around the 50% being reinvested, I would pull that out as two big areas, and that is about better commercial execution and what do we need to do, whether it's about extra resources, whether it's about training and building up skill sets of those resources to be able to upsell, et cetera. but also providing them with the right tools, and that's another area of focus, which is around digitization, right? And how do we do that at speed and scale.

    對於您關於 50% 再投資的問題,我會將其分為兩個大領域,即更好的商業執行以及我們需要做什麼,無論是額外的資源,還是培訓和建立這些資源的技能組合以便能夠追加銷售等等。同時也提供他們合適的工具,這是另一個重點領域,即數位化,對嗎?我們如何快速、大規模地實現這一目標?

  • The other piece comes back to what I touched upon earlier. We are a consumer brand company, and we recognize the need to be investing smartly in A&P and particularly on the media, but through the line efficiency, right?

    另一部分又回到我之前談到的內容。我們是一家消費品牌公司,我們認識到需要在廣告和宣傳方面,特別是在媒體方面進行明智的投資,但要透過生產線效率來提高,對嗎?

  • So I would say where we get efficiency savings particularly when we look at the nonworking and '25 is a good example of that. You've seen that come down from circa 20% down to 15%, while our overall dollars stay pretty much intact, right? And so we were able to reposition that into where we saw good returns.

    因此我想說,特別是當我們考慮非工作時,我們可以實現效率節約,而 25 就是一個很好的例子。你已經看到它從大約 20% 下降到 15%,而我們的整體美元水平基本上保持不變,對嗎?因此,我們能夠將其重新定位到能夠獲得良好回報的地方。

  • And I think we'll have a more laser-focused approach on that as we look forward. I won't get into absolute right now in terms of what dollar spend would be. You would expect that overall to be lower but not because the media scale and reach number is coming down, it's actually because we will drive more efficiencies through the commercial A&P and continue to drive non-working dollars out and where we should be putting it, which is back into media scale and reach.

    我認為,展望未來,我們將採取更專注的方法來解決這個問題。我現在不會談論具體花費是多少。您可能會認為總體而言會較低,但這並不是因為媒體規模和覆蓋範圍數字下降,而實際上是因為我們將透過商業 A&P 提高效率,並繼續將非工作資金投入到我們應該投入的地方,即媒體規模和覆蓋範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gen Cross, BNB Paribas Exane.

    Gen Cross,BNB Paribas Exane。

  • Gen Cross - Analyst

    Gen Cross - Analyst

  • First question is on total beverage alcohol. I mean in your presentation script, you referred to a recent key market study, which showed saving money was one of the top four reasons for consumers moderating total alcohol consumption. I just wondered if you could share whether saving money was the number one reason and what the other top reasons were?

    第一個問題是關於飲料酒精總量。我的意思是,在您的簡報中,您提到了最近的一項重要市場研究,該研究表明,省錢是消費者減少酒精總消費的四大原因之一。我只是想知道您是否可以分享一下省錢是否是首要原因以及其他主要原因是什麼?

  • The second question is more specifically on US spirits. You've taken various impairment charges in the year, and one of them is $170 million on various US brands, fixed assets and inventory, which at least appears to be partly driven by what you described as softening category outlook. So is the right read of this is that they view US Paris category growth over the midterm is now being a bit lower than it was under your previous assessment? Or is it more just driven by short-term pressures.

    第二個問題更具體地涉及美國烈酒。您在今年已經提列了多項減損費用,其中一項是針對各種美國品牌、固定資產和庫存的 1.7 億美元,這至少看起來部分是由您所描述的類別前景疲軟所致。那麼,正確的解讀是,他們認為美國巴黎類別在中期的成長比您之前的評估要低一些嗎?或者這只是受短期壓力的驅動。

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks. To your first question, Gen, around total beverage alcohol and what we're seeing in terms of consumers' wallets and reasons for what they're focused in on. I wouldn't necessarily say because it'll vary by market, that was the top reason. There was definitely a large reason that people were calling out around the consumption habits or what they were spending. The other piece does come back a little bit more to the moderation piece.

    謝謝。關於您的第一個問題,Gen,關於飲料酒精總量,以及我們看到的消費者錢包狀況以及他們關注的原因。我不會說因為這會因市場而異,這是最重要的原因。人們之所以對消費習慣或支出提出質疑,肯定有很大原因。另一部分確實稍微回到了適度部分。

  • So I am looking at different ways of consuming, I am looking at back to that point, moderation for me might be drinking a fewer occasions. But when I do consume, I consume with responsibility, but I enjoy what I'm having. It might be back to those points around low ABV and I'm looking for more choice.

    所以我正在尋找不同的飲酒方式,我回顧這一點,對我來說,適度飲酒可能意味著減少飲酒次數。但當我消費時,我會負責任地消費,但我會享受我所擁有的東西。它可能會回到低 ABV 的那些點,我正在尋找更多選擇。

  • And so when I'm not getting that choice, unfortunately, I'm going into something else. And I talked a little about the conference in Paris around there are people who are just choosing not to substitute, there are people who are choosing to drink something else, right? And that's where I think we have the opportunity when we look at what can we offer to be able to gain back some of those drinkers into our products for the types of occasions that really serve them well, whether it's RTDs, whether it's smaller formats, whether it's around low ABV, whether it's about when I drink I drink better, not more.

    因此,不幸的是,當我沒有得到那個選擇時,我就會去做別的事情。我稍微談了一下在巴黎舉行的會議,有些人選擇不取代,有些人選擇喝別的東西,對嗎?我認為,這就是我們的機會所在,我們可以提供什麼,以便能夠重新吸引一部分飲酒者,讓他們在真正適合他們的場合飲用我們的產品,無論是即飲飲料,還是小杯飲料,還是低酒精度飲料,還是我喝酒時喝得更好,而不是喝得更多。

  • Those are all elements we want to tap into as opposed to them drinking more functional beverages or more soft drinks, et cetera. So I think there's a lot more that we want to unpack there as we continue to build on our research as to what are the reasons people are not buying and what can we do to drive more relevance of our brands and our portfolio for those occasions.

    這些都是我們想要利用的元素,而不是讓他們喝更多的功能性飲料或更多的軟性飲料等等。因此,我認為,隨著我們繼續研究人們不購買的原因以及我們可以做些什麼來提高我們的品牌和產品組合在這些場合的相關性,我們還有很多事情需要解決。

  • And that's a part of the work that I've talked about in terms of our strategy kind of sharpening that we'll be doing in the months to come together with the broader exec team and our markets.

    這是我談到的策略完善工作的一部分,我們將在未來幾個月與更廣泛的執行團隊和我們的市場一起進行這項工作。

  • I think to your question around the impairments that we've taken. Remember, this is very much driven by triggers that you need to look at in terms of how the brand is performing and what the nearer-term outlook has been and what the historical data looks like.

    我認為你的問題與我們所採取的措施有關。請記住,這很大程度上是由觸發因素驅動的,您需要根據品牌的表現、近期前景以及歷史數據來判斷。

  • So I don't think it in any way changes our view in terms of the US spirits market and the opportunities there. So really much more around some of the near-term pressures and how we need to look at that. And I think in some ways, while it's never great to take an impairment, I think this allows us to have a clean start as we look forward to really focus on growing those brands in a structured, systematic and sustainable way, but our belief in US spirits continues to be just as strong, albeit, as I said, with an evolving TBA landscape that we'll continue to monitor and look at how we can play and be relevant.

    因此我認為這不會改變我們對美國烈酒市場及其機會的看法。因此,實際上更多的是圍繞著一些近期壓力以及我們應該如何看待這些壓力。我認為從某種程度上來說,雖然遭受損失從來都不是好事,但我認為這讓我們有一個全新的開始,因為我們期待真正專注於以結構化、系統化和可持續的方式發展這些品牌,但我們對美國烈酒的信念依然堅定,儘管正如我所說,TBA 格局在不斷發展,我們將繼續監測並研究如何發揮作用並保持相關性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Javier Gonzalez-Lastra, Berenberg.

    哈維爾·岡薩雷斯-拉斯特拉,貝倫貝格。

  • Javier Gonzalez Lastra - Analyst

    Javier Gonzalez Lastra - Analyst

  • Two questions, please, for me. First one on disposals. Nick, you mentioned that the CMD back in May that you would be targeting disposals outside Guinness and more Tennessee that would be substantial. We've seen since news that both the cricket team in India and the East African breweries business are potentially up for sale, which are indeed substantial, as you said. My question is whether we should expect this to be at or whether there might be more in the pipeline?

    請問我兩個問題。第一個是關於處置的。尼克,你在五月的 CMD 會議上提到,你將瞄準吉尼斯以外和田納西州更多的大型資產處置。我們看到有消息稱,印度板球隊和東非啤酒業務都可能被出售,正如您所說,這確實是一筆巨款。我的問題是,我們是否應該期待這個數字,或者是否還會有更多數字?

  • And my second question is on agave costs. Would you be able to help us understand better how significant the benefit from reduced purchase costs might be in 2026? Or how does it compare your average agave supply price in fiscal '25 to the existing market price?

    我的第二個問題是關於龍舌蘭的成本。您能否幫助我們更能理解 2026 年降低採購成本可能帶來多大的效益?或如何將 25 財年的平均龍舌蘭供應價格與現有市場價格進行比較?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks. As you can very hopefully understand, I can't really talk about specific assets or comment on any kind of speculation that's out there in the media. But I think nothing has changed in terms of our strategy on disposals. We had guided before that this was a part of our commitment, but more being led a strategic angle and looking at assets or businesses that we didn't quite see as non-core or what wouldn't necessarily fit in as we continue to sharpen our strategy as we look forward.

    謝謝。希望您能理解,我無法真正談論具體資產或對媒體上的任何猜測發表評論。但我認為我們的處置策略沒有任何改變。我們之前曾指出這是我們承諾的一部分,但更多的是從戰略角度來考慮,並關注那些我們不認為是非核心的資產或業務,或者不一定適合的資產或業務,因為我們會在未來繼續完善我們的戰略。

  • This continues to remain the case. And I think we're making progress on those substantial asset disposals that I talked about. And I feel confident that we have a ready pool of interesting buyers that will allow us maximize value for Diageo and our shareholders, but more importantly, too, I think those are assets that probably belong well with some of those potential buyers and, hence, their level of interest.

    這種情況至今仍是如此。我認為我們在我談到的那些重大資產處置方面正在取得進展。我相信,我們已經準備好一批有趣的買家,他們將使我們能夠為帝亞吉歐和股東實現價值最大化,但更重要的是,我認為這些資產可能很適合一些潛在買家,因此也符合他們的興趣。

  • I will just reconfirm that we do not have any intentions of selling Guinness, no uptake in more Tennessee at this point. And in terms of a broader portfolio question just to take that head on. As a part of our review, we are looking at our portfolio. I think Diageo has had a history of being active portfolio managers. Nothing more to add or say there, but we'll come back in due course if there's something of interest to share with you.

    我只是想再次確認,我們沒有任何出售吉尼斯啤酒的意圖,目前田納西州的銷量還沒有成長。就更廣泛的投資組合問題而言,我們只需正面解決這個問題。作為審查的一部分,我們正在審視我們的投資組合。我認為帝亞吉歐一直以來都是積極的投資組合管理者。沒有什麼可補充或說的,但如果有有趣的事情要與您分享,我們會適時回來。

  • To your question around agave pricing, I think, I'd like to just give you some background in terms of how you should be thinking about this. We have a very diverse supply chain sourcing strategy and Agave in particular. So we own some of our own production, we do purchase on long-term contracts, and we do access spot markets. So it's a combination of those. So just the fact that today's spot market price for agave is lower should not be reflective of the price going into our tequila COGS, right? Because it is that combination, but are we clearly leveraging the combination of all those as we look forward, not just into '26, absolutely.

    對於您關於龍舌蘭定價的問題,我想我只是想給您一些背景信息,告訴您應該如何考慮這個問題。我們有非常多樣化的供應鏈採購策略,尤其是龍舌蘭。因此,我們擁有自己的一些生產能力,我們確實根據長期合約進行採購,並且我們確實進入現貨市場。所以它是這些的結合。因此,今天龍舌蘭的現貨市場價格較低這一事實不應該反映出我們的龍舌蘭酒銷貨成本的價格,對嗎?因為它是那種組合,但是我們是否會在展望未來時明確利用所有這些的組合,而不僅僅是展望 26 年,絕對如此。

  • I think we've got some good liquid already in place. Now that's positive from an angle that we have liquid to be able to sell and meet market demands, whether it's on DJ or on Casamigos. But remember, that's already in our inventory that will be coming through, but that was a prior periods agave costs. So that will have an impact as it starts coming through, not just in '26, but more beyond when you look at that first piece around our supply model.

    我認為我們已經準備好一些優質液體了。從某個角度來看,這是積極的,因為我們擁有足夠的流動性來銷售並滿足市場需求,無論是在 DJ 還是在 Casamigos。但請記住,這已經在我們的庫存中了,但這是前期的龍舌蘭成本。因此,當它開始發揮作用時,它會產生影響,不僅僅是在 26 年,而且當你看我們供應模式的第一部分時,它會產生更大的影響。

  • And then on FX, given some of the movements over the past couple of years, remember, we do hedge that transaction impact. As we look forward, this is a great example of where we would look at both the transaction and the translation piece, particularly with USD and Mexican peso. That should help us in some of that volatility as we look forward. So hopefully, that helps you understand how we look at that.

    然後關於外匯,考慮到過去幾年的一些變動,請記住,我們確實對沖了交易的影響。展望未來,這是一個很好的例子,我們將同時關注交易和翻譯部分,特別是美元和墨西哥比索。這應該有助於我們應對未來的一些波動。希望這能幫助您了解我們如何看待這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Pitcher, Rothschild & Co.

    克里斯·皮徹(Chris Pitcher),羅斯柴爾德公司

  • Chris Pitcher - Analyst

    Chris Pitcher - Analyst

  • A couple of questions, please. Firstly, following on the maturing spirits comment, Nick. I mean if we look at where your inventories are indeed the industry inventories are across the piece. Have you given -- forgive me if you have, have you given any clarity on what you think your incremental investment will be next year?

    請問幾個問題。首先,尼克,繼續關於成熟精神的評論。我的意思是,如果我們查看您的庫存,您會發現整個行業的庫存都是如此。您是否已經給出過——請原諒我,您是否已經明確說明您認為明年的增量投資是多少?

  • And then Secondly, on Guinness. I know it's still growing strongly. Is there anything in your more cautious view in the first half on Guinness slowing a bit more? Or are you still very comfortable it continuing the double-digit growth or there -- or thereabouts into fiscal '26. Thanks.

    其次,關於吉尼斯。我知道它仍在強勁增長。您對上半年吉尼斯的放緩趨勢持更謹慎的看法,這其中是否有什麼原因?或者您仍然非常放心,2026 財年將繼續保持兩位數的成長?謝謝。

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Chris, so on your question on maturing spirits, we have not provided anything specific in terms of what that growth would be during '26. I would just call out, and I think maybe if there was any confusion. But just to clarify, when you look at actually the '25 numbers in our closing balance, while part of that was obviously the incremental investment in maturing stock. That was about half of it, and the rest of the half is really FX as you restate your maturing liquid balance.

    克里斯,關於你關於烈酒成熟的問題,我們還沒有提供任何關於 26 年期間增長情況的具體信息。我只是會大聲喊出來,我想也許會有什麼混淆。但需要澄清的是,當您實際查看我們期末餘額中的 25 個數字時,其中一部分顯然是對到期股票的增量投資。這大約是其中的一半,當你重申到期的液體餘額時,剩下的一半實際上是外匯。

  • As we look forward, and I think as I talked about, one of the things that we have done, given the liquid that we have and how we look at what is our notional pool of safety stock, it is complex as you probably know, even better than me.

    展望未來,我想正如我所說的,我們所做的事情之一,考慮到我們擁有的流動性以及我們如何看待我們的名義安全庫存池,它很複雜,你可能比我更了解。

  • You helped educate me as a for coming in, in terms of that liquid, which is very valuable liquid but is complex in terms of the different flavor profiles, the age profiles, what we need for blends, what we need for single malls, right?

    您幫助我了解了這種液體,它是非常有價值的液體,但在不同的風味特徵、年齡特徵、混合所需的條件、單一商場所需的條件方面很複雜,對嗎?

  • And I think what the team has done a phenomenal job over the last four months working with me and my broader team is to really understand where we have that incremental notional pool in the age profile and the liquids that we have and how can we actually look at that as we shape our strategy.

    我認為,在過去四個月裡,團隊與我和我的整個團隊合作做得非常出色,真正了解了我們在年齡分佈和液體中的增量概念池在哪裡,以及我們在製定策略時如何真正看待這一點。

  • But more importantly, as we look at laying down more liquid, what is our distilling capacities and how and where can we manage that throttle to be able to utilize some of the liquid, but without compromising on the investment for the future, right?

    但更重要的是,當我們考慮儲存更多的液體時,我們的蒸餾能力是多少,我們如何以及在哪裡管理節流閥以便能夠利用一些液體,但又不影響未來的投資,對嗎?

  • And I think that's the work that we've done. I think we are in a position in terms of our planning to be able to see that benefit starting to come through some in '26, but this would be a multiyear journey because we want to be able to be much more dynamic and look at that almost every quarter to six months to saying, have we made some of the right choices. Do we need to throttle up a little bit? Do we need to pull back? Where are the potential risks or what we might be seeing based on how we're seeing demand generation and consumption.

    我認為這就是我們所做的工作。我認為,就我們的計劃而言,我們能夠在 26 年開始看到一些好處,但這將是一個多年的過程,因為我們希望能夠更加動態,幾乎每個季度到六個月都會回顧一下,看看我們是否做出了一些正確的選擇。我們需要稍微加大油門嗎?我們需要撤退嗎?根據我們對需求產生和消費的看法,潛在的風險在哪裡,或我們可能看到什麼。

  • So that's the work that we've been doing and I feel that we'll continue to have a much better handle on that. Like I said, every six months and doing the right things to protect the long term but also not draw up on a lot of cash in the short term, if it's not needed.

    這就是我們一直在做的工作,我覺得我們會繼續更好地處理這項工作。就像我說的,每六個月做正確的事情來保護長期利益,但如果不需要的話,也不會在短期內提取大量現金。

  • To your question on Guinness, I wouldn't necessarily say that we expect anything significantly slower in the first half versus the second, I would just call out that we do have more capacity that's coming on stream in the second half which will actually help us to even accelerate and build on what has been tremendous momentum, not just in the high-growth markets, which are largest markets of GB Island and the US.

    對於您關於吉尼斯的問題,我並不一定會說我們預計上半年會比下半年出現任何明顯放緩,我只是要說,下半年我們確實有更多產能投入使用,這實際上將幫助我們加速並鞏固我們的巨大勢頭,不僅僅是在高增長市場,也就是英國島和美國最大的市場。

  • But you were with us in Dublin, and we talked about the big unlock opportunity as we look into other markets. And I think that's an opportunity as we look at how we want to accelerate growth in '26 and probably in some of the second half numbers as well because that capacity will really help us get into other markets and leverage that growth opportunity in existing markets as well.

    但是您和我們一起在都柏林,我們討論了在研究其他市場時的巨大解鎖機會。我認為這是一個機會,因為我們正在考慮如何在 26 年加速成長,並且可能在下半年的一些數據中也是如此,因為這種產能將真正幫助我們進入其他市場,並利用現有市場的成長機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurence Whyatt, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的勞倫斯·懷亞特。

  • Laurence Whyatt - Equity Analyst

    Laurence Whyatt - Equity Analyst

  • A couple from me as well, please. Firstly, Don Julio in the USA, we've been talking about balanced growth across the portfolio. But of course, in that brand, I think a lot of the growth has really been coming from the -- SKU. As you think going forward, firstly, why do you think the growth has been so strong and replicated? What is it about the episode category that's really captured attention of consumers recently?

    我也請你給我幾張。首先,美國的唐‧胡里奧 (Don Julio),我們一直在談論整個投資組合的平衡成長。但當然,對於該品牌來說,我認為許多成長實際上來自於 SKU。展望未來,首先,您認為為什麼成長如此強勁且可複製?劇集類別最近真正吸引了消費者的注意嗎?

  • And within that, would you expect acceleration on the other parts of the Don Julio? I think historically, there's a lot more growth from the very ultra-premium parts of the brand? And would you expect a bit of a recovery across, say, the Blanco 942 other parts as well as the strength you've seen in Reposado.

    在此範圍內,您是否期望 Don Julio 的其他部分能夠加速發展?我認為從歷史上看,該品牌的超高端部分會帶來更大的成長?您是否預期 Blanco 942 的其他部分會出現一些復甦,並且會像 Reposado 一樣強勁。

  • And then secondly, since, I guess, at the beginning of this year, you talked about growing in the upper quartile of consumer staples. And I think on the call, the pre-recorded call that we listened to earlier today, you talked about the upper quartile of TSR, is what you're aiming at achieving.

    其次,我想,由於您在今年年初談到了消費必需品上四分位數的增長。我認為,在電話會議中,也就是我們今天早些時候聽過的預先錄製的電話會議中,您談到了 TSR 的上四分位數,這就是您想要實現的目標。

  • But I think previously in the year, you've talked about being in the upper quartile in organic profit growth in the way that the company used to guide. I was just wondering, is that an intentional change in messaging? Or do you expect to be upper quartile in both of those? Or perhaps if you could just clarify your views on upper quartile?

    但我認為,今年早些時候,您曾談到公司有機利潤成長將達到上四分位數,正如公司過去所引導的那樣。我只是想知道,這是訊息傳遞中的故意改變嗎?或者您期望在這兩個方面都處於上四分位數?或者您可以澄清一下您對上四分位數的看法?

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Absolutely. So let me start with that one. In terms of what was in the prepared remarks, I think TSR is ultimately an outcome if you're doing things well from an angle of getting that right balance in what I rightfully have said, but not just on profit around all our metrics and how do we look at top line growth translating with positive operating leverage into operating profit dollar growth faster than that top line growth and very much around conversion to cash and ultimately, better returns, right?

    絕對地。那麼就讓我從這個開始吧。就準備好的評論中的內容而言,我認為,如果您從正確平衡的角度做得很好,那麼 TSR 最終就會成為一種結果,而這不僅僅是圍繞我們所有指標的利潤,我們如何看待盈利增長,通過積極的運營槓桿轉化為營業利潤美元增長,速度比盈利增長更快,並且非常注重轉換為現金,最終獲得更好的回報,對嗎?

  • And I think we're doing that well with a very clear capital allocation policy that ultimately leads to TSR. So I think I was using that just as a proxy as opposed to calling out everything else, but very much intact in terms of our thinking around a much broader-based algo across all of those measures to be able to drive more consistent and positive TSR growth in the years to come. So that's what I would call out the quartile and that's what myself, the exec and the Board are very much focused on setting up our strategy and our focus around being able to deliver that.

    我認為我們做得很好,因為我們有一個非常明確的資本配置政策,最終實現了 TSR。因此,我認為我只是用它作為一個代理,而不是調用其他一切,但在我們的思考方面非常完整,圍繞所有這些措施的更廣泛的演算法,以便能夠在未來幾年推動更一致和積極的 TSR 增長。這就是我所說的四分位數,也是我本人、執行長和董事會非常注重製定策略和實現這一目標的重點。

  • To your question around Don Julio, it's really -- it's a great question. I think the REPO growth is really coming from the fact that, obviously, people coming into the tequila category. And typically, you come in through something that's more accessible and you might come in through Blanco, but then you do also find that aging of the liquid without going to a very strong aged liquid in a narrow or even beyond is what is driving that.

    對於您關於唐·胡里奧 (Don Julio) 的問題,這確實是一個很好的問題。我認為回購成長的真正原因是,顯然人們開始進入龍舌蘭酒類別。通常情況下,你會通過更容易接近的東西進入,你可能會通過 Blanco 進入,但你也會發現,液體的老化,而不是在狹窄甚至更遠的地方變成非常濃的老化液體,才是推動這一現象的原因。

  • I think the team has also done a phenomenal job in really steeping Don Julio Reposado in culture, in moments of enjoyment, it really does well in cocktails as well. I mean I'm speaking as a user myself, that's my go to drink, right?

    我認為團隊在將 Don Julio Reposado 融入文化方面做得非常出色,在享受樂趣的時刻,它在雞尾酒中也表現得非常好。我的意思是,我以使用者的身份說話,這是我要喝的飲料,對嗎?

  • I typically go for Don Julio Reposado and I like that because I have it quite clean, just with soda and a slice of orange, if you want to know, but it just kind of gives me that taste of slightly aged liquid as well. And then if I'm sitting, I might move up to an -- , but if I'm doing just a regular cocktail, I might have a Blanco. So I think that's the range offering that we want to continue building on for a broader consumer base.

    我通常會選擇 Don Julio Reposado,我喜歡它,因為它很純淨,只加了蘇打水和一片橙子,如果你想知道的話,但它也給我那種略帶陳年液體的味道。如果我坐著,我可能會喝一杯——,但如果我只是喝一杯普通的雞尾酒,我可能會喝一杯 Blanco。所以我認為,這就是我們希望繼續為更廣泛的消費者群體提供的產品範圍。

  • And I think you're absolutely right, 1942 and all the variants that we're doing there and how that's playing into culture and bringing in influencers. I mean the Don Julio 1942 activation, for instance, that I saw during Super Bowl was incredible.

    我認為您完全正確,1942 以及我們在那裡所做的所有變體以及它們如何影響文化並帶來影響者。我的意思是,例如,我在超級盃期間看到的 Don Julio 1942 活動就令人難以置信。

  • I think the small format that we have of the 50 TCL in the Don Julio 1942 has been doing amazingly well because you might not see that in the volume numbers, but you see that in the transactions because people really are able to use that from an affordability play or a cash outlay play, but still will be able to enjoy what is great liquid.

    我認為,我們擁有的 1942 年唐胡里奧 (Don Julio) 50 TCL 的小格式表現非常好,因為你可能無法在銷量數字中看到這一點,但你可以在交易中看到這一點,因為人們確實能夠從可負擔性遊戲或現金支出遊戲中使用它,但仍然可以享受到極好的流動性。

  • I think your question around the broader portfolio, I'll take it out of the US for a moment, and I was chatting with our new MD who actually moved from GB into Mexico, and he talked about the big opportunity that we have with Don Julio Blanco, which is a very recognized brand, great brand equity, but we've actually tended in that market to only focus on actually higher value offerings, right?

    我認為您關於更廣泛產品組合的問題,我將暫時將其從美國帶走,我正在與我們的新任董事總經理聊天,他實際上是從英國搬到墨西哥的,他談到了我們與 Don Julio Blanco 合作的巨大機遇,這是一個非常知名的品牌,擁有很高的品牌資產,但我們實際上傾向於在該市場只關注實際上更高價值的產品,對嗎?

  • And so we've, in some ways, left that market open where we have great liquid, a great brand and I think there's a broader opportunity as we look at our tequila play that is not just linked to the premiumization end, but how do we get that whole opportunity all the way from Banco up. And it's not just about Don Julio, it comes back to my earlier comments, whether what we can do with Casamigos, what we can do with Astral, et cetera. So I think we've got a bigger opportunity to play for in our broader market markets as we look at tequila as a whole. So we're very excited about that opportunity going forward.

    因此,從某種程度上來說,我們讓這個市場保持開放,因為我們在這個市場中擁有大量流動性和優秀的品牌。我認為,當我們審視我們的龍舌蘭酒業務時,存在著更廣泛的機會,這不僅與高端化有關,而且我們如何從 Banco 一路獲得整個機會。這不僅與唐·胡里奧有關,這又回到了我之前的評論,我們可以用 Casamigos 做什麼,我們可以用 Astral 做什麼,等等。因此,我認為,從整體來看,我們在更廣闊的市場中擁有更大的機會。因此,我們對未來的機會感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the time we have for questions today. -- Yes, over to you, next for closing remarks.

    今天的提問時間到此結束。 ——是的,接下來由您來作結語。

  • Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

    Nik Jhangiani - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer

  • Great. So I really want to thank you all for joining us today. I want to reiterate just a few points as we close the call. I know we have much to do, but please be assured that I, alongside the Board and the exec team, I mean, we're fully engaged in both stabilizing and then sustainably growing our business in the coming years.

    偉大的。所以我真的很感謝大家今天的參加。在結束通話之前,我想重申幾點。我知道我們有很多事情要做,但請放心,我與董事會和執行團隊將全力以赴,在未來幾年穩定並持續發展我們的業務。

  • The azure rightfully, as leaders should and will be leading the way as we continue to sharpen our strategy in what is what we've called out as a really evolving TBA landscape. I think we all look forward to sharing more on this in the coming months. We continue to be focused on what we can manage and control as I've outlined, but continue to focus on building new core capabilities to allow us to win with our customers, and continue building our great brands and leveraging consumers' preferences.

    隨著我們繼續完善我們的策略,即我們所說的真正不斷發展的 TBA 格局,Azure 作為領導者理應並將會起到引領作用。我想我們都期待在接下來的幾個月分享更多這方面的資訊。正如我所概述的,我們將繼續專注於我們能夠管理和控制的事情,但將繼續專注於建立新的核心能力,以使我們能夠贏得客戶,並繼續建立我們的優秀品牌並利用消費者的偏好。

  • My team and I are committed to rebuilding a high-performance culture, driving clarity across the organization, clear allocation of resources and execution, discipline and excellence. So a lot more to come for us -- from us in the coming months, but we remain committed to being able to drive this business positively for the long term. And thank you for joining us today.

    我和我的團隊致力於重建高績效文化,推動整個組織的清晰度、資源和執行的明確分配、紀律和卓越。因此,在接下來的幾個月裡,我們還將做出更多努力,但我們仍致力於長期積極推動這項業務的發展。感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This now concludes today's call. Thank you for your attendance. You can disconnect your lines.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝您的出席。您可以斷開線路。